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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

8 indicators which suggest a rally?

ML Strategist, Mark Matthews,identify 8 indicators which suggest a rally should take place over the next couple of months:

1) US financials have bounced from an important support level last tested in 2000. They are up 26% from their lows of July 15, while Asian financials, which have fell just as much year-to-date, are only up 8%.

2) According to Investor Intelligence, the number of US bears over bulls is at its widest margin since 1994,

3) US small caps generally lead Asia - the Russell 2,000 has bounced 9% from July 7, while Asia is flat over the same period,

4) Net fund flows out of Asian markets of USD13bn year-to-date suggest an extreme in redemptions,

5) Asia is close to 2 standard deviations from the mean of its 200-day moving average, in the past this deviation extreme has been followed by rallies, on average of 3.0% over the next 1 month, 10.0% over the next 3 months, 8.3% over the next 6 months and 21.4% over the next 12 months.

6) The Relative Strength Index (average gain relative to average loss over 14 days) has turned up from its low of 17 in early July, to 44 as of yesterday,

7) Oil speculators have begun to reduce their positions on NYMEX and oil has reverted below USD130/b,

8) The region is now trading on 15x trailing earnings, below the average of 16.5x of the past 5 years.

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