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Sunday, September 18, 2011

透過技術分析 教你趨吉避凶

利用技術分析作盲公竹
近排接到些散戶來電,都顯得心態疲弱,事關大把蟹貨在手。追問為何股價會跌得那麼急、家鄉價何時到?股價跌得急,其實原理如牛市中股價升得急一樣。現在造淡,一個公司利潤轉弱或一份大行唱淡報告已足夠震散股價,究竟利潤減少程度怎樣衡量?股價應跌多少無從計算。

市場信息複雜混亂,大行意見真是信又死,不信又死。利用技術分析作盲公竹,或有助看清走勢,畢竟股價會物極必反,超跌也有反彈時,超漲也會回調。筆者嘗試整理一些股價短期有望喘跌或反彈股份,以至常見的股價短期見頂或回落之技術分析訊號,給大家當盲公竹,作趨吉避凶參考。

趨吉之技術分析訊號
一、在超跌股中,筆者常用的探測止跌指標是RSI及MACD的底背馳訊號,當股價呈一浪低於一浪,但RSI及MACD拒絕再挫,反而呈一浪高於一浪走勢,揭示股價下跌的速度或能量已減弱,可能是股價將近見底或反彈之時。不信,且看之前筆者曾於次季推介的中移動,其股價由年初至5月均呈一浪低於一浪,至5月份股價跌跌穿3月低位時,MACD及RSI拒絕再挫,支持股價於68元左右止跌可靠訊號。再看股價於6月試底時MACD及RSI未有跟從,是更加可靠的趨吉訊號,當傳聞與APPLE合作消息入市,股價以裂口上升,曾高見74元,中移動昨收72.35元。

二、此外,超跌股不怕大成交,交投往往反映大戶動向,大成交量通常發生在市場趨勢發生轉折時候,市場好淡雙方在角力,堅決看淡後市一方拋售的同時,堅決看好一方卻在大手吸納。因此,在股價超跌下,淡靜反而看不清前路,相反,交投量激增反而值得留意,再配合股價止跌回升交投量又增時,又是一個可靠的趨吉分析訊號。以熔盛重工為例,因早前自動透露交船期押後,引發股價下挫,於4月近7元股價開始跌時,成交不大,但到5月、6月成交額急增預示好淡雙方在激烈較量,到6月股價於3.8元觸底時,配合RSI底背馳已構成第一個止跌回升轉折點訊號,到6月尾再以大成交配合,股價抽升回4.6元樓上,顯示股價已暫時脫離被拋售弱勢,股價昨收5.26元。筆者曾接觸熔盛高層發現,他們明白投資者擔憂,並積極改善透明度以改善企管。每隻民企都有故事,亦有好有壞,經過今次歷練,始終會有火鳳凰誕生,股民不妨放多些心力跟進並尋找投資良機。

避凶之技術分析訊號
一、對大行的突然發布唱淡報告,或改口風唱好又唱衰,的確難以應付。惟股勢上,物極必反,留意股價技術走勢,避開股價可能短期見頂之股份,又可以利用RSI或MACD的頂背馳訊號作判斷,當股價呈一浪高於一浪,但RSI或MACD拒絕再升,揭示上升的速度或能量在逐漸減弱,地心吸力遲早發揮效應,觀RSI及MACD頂背馳訊號,至少不會犯過「牛」心態,冒險高追大忌。檢視近期強勢的財險周綫走勢圖顯示,都要提醒大家,周綫RSI都出現RSI拒絕隨股價創新高,反映着短期升勢漸受制,股價昨回挫3.7%至14.22元而成交激增,或是股價短期見頂之兆。持貨在手可考慮以失守13元密集支持區作止賺鎖定回報,未有貨就不要貿然撈貨。

二、避開反彈點到即止股份,當股價跌穿關鍵支持點後,有時會有反彈,但屬點到即止式反彈時,就清晰顯示當時股勢仍弱,不能對反彈浪有太大期望。以聯邦製藥去年至今的走勢為例,去年12月失守密集支持區近15元,今年3月一度反彈接近但未能再進一步,結果,股價再跌穿12元支持。雖有主席頻增持,仍無法扭轉跌勢,惟有寄望RSI呈現底背馳,以反映8元見初步支持。

月尾例彈

一些極有用,但不是很常用的招式,一定要記存在案,甚至製作一張清單,適時檢查,看看有甚麼可以拿來應戰。例如六月份的市況,由月初跌至接近月尾,其實極容易令人心灰意冷,失去了再博的決心。

自己得以幸免,一定程度上得益自海嘯時期,朋友所賜教的一招「月尾例彈」:道理相當顯淺,不外是說很多平衡基金是採用固定比率來配置資產,股票、債券都要有若干份額,當某一個月份,出現股市大跌、債券大升時 (通常兩者會一起出現,因為當股票大瀉,投資者會出於避險需求,湧入債市) ,月底這類基金就會沽債買股,令組合重新平衡。月底突然出現的上升動力,如果成功捕捉,對於重整陣容和士氣,都大有幫助。

問題是這類機會,可能一年只有一、兩次,而當股市在月內由頭跌到尾,多數人會過分聚焦眼前市況,忽略了原來倉底有這一招備用。如果沒有錯失,在六月下旬買定認購期權伺候,配合追買一些中型股挾淡倉,回報應該不錯。
時常檢查尋找機會

另一例子,是分拆上市。有本小書名為《You can be a stock market genius》,是自己長期推介給讀者的參考書之一。書中指當上市公司把旗下公司股份派送予股東,派發的股份往往在上市之初,因不同原因出現被動沽壓,候低買入回報可望甚豐。問題也是一樣:可能一年僅有一單,若不時常翻查清單,很易忽略這種機會。
去年年初,用此招選了越秀地產分派的越秀交通;今年則有理文集團分派的理文手袋,兩者都在新上市後,錄得不錯的回報。只要準備好清單,時常檢查,就算市況慘淡,卻仍可在絕望中找到希望。

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

分享锦集:股市实战手记五则

1.留得青山在,不怕没柴烧。

当股市逆转时,假如你是将股票抵押给银行,借款投资股票的话,第一件要做的事,就是立刻采取行动,抛售一部份,将贷款额减低至安全的水平。

所谓“安全水平”,我的标准是即使股市再跌50%,你仍不会面对银行逼仓的困境。如果能完全还清贷款,那就最理想。

抛售时,要果断,要乾脆俐落,切忌犹疑不决,或是拖泥带水。

优柔寡断,是举债投资者陷入困境的最大原因。请记住两点:


i.股市是不可预测的,不要自作聪明,一厢情愿的认为股市下跌是暂时性的。股市不会理会你的想法,你须对自己行为负责。

ii.即使你的抛售是错误的,将来也会有机会买回来,即使不能买回原股,也可以投资於别的股票,所以不必迟疑不决。

留得青山在,不怕没柴烧。

生存永远比失去的机会更重要-重要百倍。

2.投资股票是持久战

买与卖,不要同时进行,买了又卖,卖了又买,是最糟糕的投资策略。

正确的做法是只有准备长期持有时才买进,不要贪图蝇头小利,不断的在股市抢进卖出,企图以此赚取快钱。

快速致富的人不是没有,只是少之又少,少到不值得我们去搏取。财富必须是脚踏实地去创造出来的,才能持久。

无论是亲力亲为做事业,或是投资股票,都是如此。

股市真正成功的投资者,多数是多年才买卖一次的投资者。因为他们视买股票为买事业,买事业等于参与做事业,是一场持久战,才有可能取得战果。

速战速决的战略,适用于别的市场,例如货币市场,但不适用于股市,股票投资必须是马拉松,不是短跑,短跑靠冲劲,马拉松靠耐力致胜。

3.吸取教训减少犯错

判断错误,买错股票,是属正常,如果一个人百战百胜,从未失手,我肯定他不是人,是神。

凡是人,都是血肉之躯,血肉之躯必然有思想感情,有思想感情的人都必须受世间所发生的事的影响,这些影响会使他作出错误的判断,所以,犯错误是正常的。

投资者所要努力去做的,不是要完全不犯错误,而是减少犯错误,只要对多错少,就可在股市投资致富。

所以,不要因为错误而烦恼,也没有必要去后悔。重要的是你必须吸取错误的教训,尽量减少错误。

成功投资者与失败投资者区别,是前者因错而做得更好,后者则一错再错,死性不改。

错误并不可耻,可耻的是错而不能改,改而不能久。

4.平常心看待股票投资

如果你发现你作了错误的投资,例如买错股票,就要认输,立刻采取行动补救。

不肯认输而死顶下去,是许多人投资失败的主要原因。

更坏的是不但不认输,反而找出种种理由来支持他的错误行动,最后必然自食苦果。

我认识一位持有金融和会计双学位的专业人士,担任财经要职,像他这样的学历的人,照理具备成为成功投资者的最有利条件,但我发现他在工作上有特出的表现,但个人的股票投资成绩单却满江红,差到极点。

我发现他的致命伤是他不肯认输,当他知道自己的投资出现问题时,他认为以他的学历,判断不可能错误,所以坚持下去,他忘记了股市是个不按牌理出牌的地方,以教条去应付诡谲的股市,当然是一败涂地。

股票投资,知识当然是重要的,但更重要的是常识。

本着常识,以平常心看待股票投资的人,反而比钻牛角尖所谓专家,有更大成功机会。

5.脚踏实地不幻想

在股市中,脚踏实地,老老实实投资的人,比侥倖行险,自作聪明的人,有更高的成功机会。

我常说,买股票就是买股份,买股份就是买事业,买事业须实事求是,不能存有幻想。

根据美国百多年来的统计,股票投资的平均回酬率约为10.5%,明乎此,你当知道,要在股市快速致富是不实际的。

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks

With economic growth at a standstill, Europe a financial disaster area and the U.S. stock market tanking, who better to turn to for advice than John C. Bogle?

Mr. Bogle founded Vanguard Group in 1974. Two years later, he launched the first index mutual fund, enabling investors to bet on broad baskets of stocks at low cost. Along the way, he has been a tireless, though critics have said sanctimonious, crusader against overpaid money managers, ineffective policy makers, short-term-fixated investors and financial professionals corrupted by conflicts of interest.

Mr. Bogle's forecasts of stock and bond returns, while hardly perfect, have been more accurate than most. In the early 1990s, he predicted double-digit-percentage annual gains for stocks over the coming decade. (He was correct.) In 1999, Mr. Bogle foresaw low-single-digit returns for the next decade. (He should've been even more pessimistic.)

Mr. Bogle, 82 years old, has survived at least half a dozen heart attacks since 1960, a heart transplant in 1996, three days in a coma in 2009 and four broken ribs when he took a spill two months ago.

Yet the ravages of Mr. Bogle's body seem to have toughened his mind. While he is frustrated at governments around the world for bungling financial policy and at speculators for hijacking the markets, he is optimistic that future stock returns will be better than many people expect.

I visited Mr. Bogle on Wednesday in his office at Vanguard's headquarters near Philadelphia. We spoke first about the growing cadre of investors who believe that diversification is unnecessary, and buy-and-hold investing is foolish, in an era of low returns. Such investors cite the last, "lost" decade as evidence of the failure of traditional investing advice like Mr. Bogle's.

Mr. Bogle stuck to his decades-long view. "Diversification is not only the first important thing investors should think about, but the second and the third, and probably the fourth and fifth, too," he said. He explained that it is worth taking the risk of betting against the collective judgments of other investors only when you know far more than they do about an investment.

For the buy-and-hold philosophy to work, it must be applied not just to stocks but across an entire portfolio, including bonds and other assets, he said. That is because the stock market is, above all else, "spasmodic," he said.

As for the double-digit annual gains of the 1980s and 1990s, Mr. Bogle said, "the idea that that could recur again is something to do with insanity." But Mr. Bogle noted that the returns of the past three decades, averaged together, come close to stocks' long-term average annual gains of nearly 10%.

Over the next decade, Mr. Bogle said stocks are likely to generate an average annual return, including dividends, of around 7%. "Your money will double in 10 years," he said. "How bad is that? People ought to get over the illusion [of higher expectations] and realize that they may have to invest for longer time periods, start earlier and save more."

Has indexing—the automated strategy of buying all the securities in a market benchmark—gotten out of hand? "Unequivocally yes," he said. "It has been bastardized."

Mr. Bogle is irked by the proliferation of exchange-traded funds, many of which are narrowly focused. Some ETFs use leverage to multiply a market's return, and thereby raise risk. While some investors may be using narrow ETFs to fill gaps within an otherwise diversified portfolio, Mr. Bogle says ETFs often "are just great big gambling, speculative instruments that have definitely destabilized the market."

Mr. Bogle's own portfolio consists of roughly 80% bonds, mostly tax-free, and about 20% stocks. All of his stock funds consist of holdings traded on U.S. exchanges.

Mr. Bogle admitted that he was almost bitten by the gold bug recently. "Maybe I ought to try a little," he recalled thinking then. Unlike bonds that pay interest or stocks that generate dividends and earnings growth, "gold has no internal rate of return" and is "the ultimate speculative investment," he said. Mr. Bogle said he had no regrets about not buying.

He added, with a laugh: "Of course, I'm assuming there will be no apocalypse. And that's almost always, if not quite always, a good assumption."