S-REITs: The virtuous and the not-so-virtuous

Policy and leverage appetite shapes 2010.
We believe the Singaporelisted REIT sector's 2010 performance will be influenced by opposing systemic forces. A favorable policy climate is likely to sustain a high liquidity environment. While some S-REITs may book negative revaluations in 4Q09, the 'Bernanke Put' could potentially create a floor for asset values in 2010.
On the flipside, the rules for leverage have changed and increased conservatism is the new normal. Over-leveraged players (by today's standards) may need to reduce gearing through equity fund-raising or asset sales. This de-leveraging can potentially occur not only on the REIT level, but also on the sponsor, manager, and institutional investor level.

The virtuous and the not-so-virtuous.
2010 will not be an 'easy' market, in our view, as we expect greater variance in performance among the individual REITs. We believe the sector can be broadly divided into two camps differentiated by leverage, sponsor strength, and sub-sector specific differences in forward earnings performance. Investment opportunities are available in both camps but of different varieties: the stronger REITs may enjoy yield compression and price-to-book normalization, and can potentially tap into a virtuous cycle of accretive acquisitions. On the other hand, the weaker REITs could be trapped in a vicious cycle of declining asset value, refinancing difficulties, and a consequent need to de-leverage. For those REITs with outstanding challenges, we advise interested investors to wait until after a resolution is proposed and the extent of any dilution is clear.

Limited upside, risks to the downside.
We use 2006 valuations as a sanity check on the current recovery. The sector trades on average at 0.78x book, still below the 0.89x average in 2006. The potential 13.4% increase from current levels is offset, however, by book value risk from 4Q0 revaluations. A 6.9% potential upside from a distribution yield perspective is also offset by a mixed earnings outlook. With an unexciting risk-reward ratio for 2010, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating on S-REITs. Within our coverage universe, we have BUY ratings on Mapletree Logistics Trust [MLT, FV: S$0.78], Ascott Residence Trust [ART, FV: S$1.25], and Suntec REIT [FV: S$1.40]. Our top picks for the sector are ART and MLT, for ART's positive earning outlook and MLT's earnings stability, and for the possibility of yield-accretive acquisitions at both REITs. Key risks to our thesis include an increase in interest rates (which we believe would impact the blue chips the most), a double-dip recession and the threat of a new asset bubble.