几乎已淡出投资者视线的“私募界教父”赵丹阳，近日发布了2011年《致投资者的一封信》。
对不少股民而言，赵丹阳和其他明星投资经理一样，头顶上有着神秘的光环。他在2004年初投身A股市场预言牛市将来临，在2008年股市最疯狂时清盘旗下所有信托，并在其公开信中称，“已找不到既符合投资标准又有足够安全边际的投资标的”。去年初，他在《致投资者的一封信》中预测，年内A股将在2400点到4000点的空间里调整。赵丹阳的看法多数被验证，成为了他“独具慧眼”的象征。
今年的这一封信，他对投资有怎样的思考？
中国股市还处于调整期
在2011年《致投资者的一封信》的开头，赵丹阳对2010年投资业绩进行了回顾，不过2010年他旗下的 基金 收益并不理想。
“去年，赤子之心基金表现并不理想，赤子之心价值投资基金全年回报0.5%，赤子之心自然选择基金全年回报-8%，深表歉意。”对投资收益较低的原因，赵丹阳表示，在去年，公司在投资方向上作出一些转变，投资范围由专注中国成长扩展到全球新兴市场。“从2009年初，我们已开始投入大量精力研究印度市场，赤子之心新加坡公司吸收了一些优秀的印度籍研究员。到目前为止，两支基金各持有约30%的印度股票仓位。”
对中国的股票市场，赵丹阳认为由于全球经济从2010年开始进入滞胀期，包括中国在内等过去表现好的新兴市场将有一定的调整期，投资者要耐心等待投资机会。
“全球经济从2011年开始进入滞胀期，低增长、高通胀为未来几年的主要表现形式。过去几年表现较好的新兴市场都会有一定调整。中国市场也处于这个调整期。”赵丹阳在信中指出，2010年中国政府采取了一定措施，调整已发展多年的房地产市场，中国经济会经历一些波动，但中国未来在消费和健康产业上会有很好的机会，“从长远来看，这些调整是必要的。当调整到位时，就是我们重新投资中国市场的时机。”
今年将重点投资印度市场
对2011年的投资方向，赵丹阳表示将重点投资印度市场。
赵丹阳在信中写道，假设中国1978年的GDP和印度1991年的GDP为100，印度从1991年到2009年这20年的增长趋势和中国非常相似。另外，印度是一个年轻的国家，预计到2015年，印度的人口年龄中位数为26.5岁。此外，近几年，印度对外资的吸引力不断加大，外商直接投资占GDP的比例已由2005年的0.9%上升到2009年的2.8%。赵丹阳预测，“私营经济的发展、人口红利、外资的流入和政府投资的加大，将形成巨大合力，推动印度经济增长。”
“我们在去年9月已完成对印度的调研分析，选定了未来的投资目标公司。进入12月份，印度股市开始下跌，我们加快建仓的速度。我们已寻找到好的公司、好的管理层，但还需要等待的是好的价格。”这一说法与赵丹阳旗下基金的投资配置相互印证。
成都商报记者在赵丹阳旗下的“赤子之心自然选择基金”月报中查询发现，从去年11月至12月，该基金持有的印度股票不断提高，从占资产配置19.25%上升到30.15%，其余资产为“现金及其他”。在配置的股份中，45%为化妆品和个人护理行业，32.92%为医疗保健行业，此外还有部分分布在食品、家居用品和药业行业。
Thursday, February 10, 2011
我就是市场先生
价值投资要么以合理价格买入成长股，要么就是别人恐惧我贪婪，别人贪婪我恐惧，与市场先生反着干。
整体上讲，价值投资其实主要是与市场先生反着干，判断市场先生的情绪是一个很重要的关键问题。
多年来我发现市场先生其实本身就存在于我们自身的内心，以我为例，每当我感觉自己信心十足、前途光明、成就巨大，并将迎来无限美好的未来财富的时候，随之而来的是一次明显的下跌或者资产损失。
反之，当我内心深处到处是不安，没有任何希望的时候市场往往会见底。
也就是说，我自己的心态就是最可靠的市场先生的情绪，我以为自己是与市场先生对立的另一个主体，但现在看来，每个投资人自己的内心感受其实就是市场先生。不用到外头去找市场先生，自己就是市场先生。当我们内心慌恐、绝望，不再抱有希望与信心的时候，甚至想举手投降放弃的时候，事实证明此时常常迎来逆转和估值修复。
而相反的、信心膨胀的时候市场会下跌，所以我可以得出一个结论，每个人内心感受的真实状态就是市场先生。与市场先生做斗争就是与自己心理状态反着干，你必须和你的真实情绪状态做相反的事情，和自己情绪做相反的事情是世界上最难的。
我们自己就是市场先生，市场先生就包含着我们自己，所以自己心理状态的真实反应往往就意味着市场大众的真实反应，与自己真实想法逆向操作往往是真正的价值投资。
整体上讲，价值投资其实主要是与市场先生反着干，判断市场先生的情绪是一个很重要的关键问题。
多年来我发现市场先生其实本身就存在于我们自身的内心，以我为例，每当我感觉自己信心十足、前途光明、成就巨大，并将迎来无限美好的未来财富的时候，随之而来的是一次明显的下跌或者资产损失。
反之，当我内心深处到处是不安，没有任何希望的时候市场往往会见底。
也就是说，我自己的心态就是最可靠的市场先生的情绪，我以为自己是与市场先生对立的另一个主体，但现在看来，每个投资人自己的内心感受其实就是市场先生。不用到外头去找市场先生，自己就是市场先生。当我们内心慌恐、绝望，不再抱有希望与信心的时候，甚至想举手投降放弃的时候，事实证明此时常常迎来逆转和估值修复。
而相反的、信心膨胀的时候市场会下跌，所以我可以得出一个结论，每个人内心感受的真实状态就是市场先生。与市场先生做斗争就是与自己心理状态反着干，你必须和你的真实情绪状态做相反的事情，和自己情绪做相反的事情是世界上最难的。
我们自己就是市场先生，市场先生就包含着我们自己，所以自己心理状态的真实反应往往就意味着市场大众的真实反应，与自己真实想法逆向操作往往是真正的价值投资。
Monday, February 7, 2011
曾渊沧@股友通讯录 - 2011 年02 月
埃及局势恶化，导致全球股市除中国上海、深圳、台北外，余者皆大幅下跌。
埃及局势恶化, 最头痛的是美国。美国股市下跌是有道理的，因为过去30年，埃及总统穆巴拉克是亲美的。也因为他亲美，中东局势才能缓和。更早之前，在埃及亲苏时代，曾经封闭苏彝士运河，运河一封闭，亚洲石油，矿产，原料运往欧洲得通过非洲好望角，航运费大大增加。成本增加就导致通胀。现在，美国正在非常努力地物色可以取代穆巴拉克而又亲美的人。如果物色不到，局势的发展会失控，最坏的情况是回教极端分子上台，那么，美国就很头痛了。
现在，美国除了担心埃及局势外，也担心中东其他亲美但长期独裁专制的政权会不会像倒骨牌那样倒下？现在，约旦，沙地阿拉伯，阿联酉，科威特，都是君主专制。叙利亚的总统也已执政了很多年。埃及没有石油，亲美政权一旦倒下，最坏的情况是中东局势紧张。但是，如果沙地阿拉伯这些石油国家也变天，就是大灾难了，到时候，恐怕美军要再度出征，占领沙地阿拉伯。
中国股市为什么会回升？一个可能的原因是前一阵子跌得多了。一连串打压楼价的措施 也推出得七七八八，看来短期内会有一段较安定的日子。随之而来的是企业公布2010年还相当不错的利润，可以支持股价。
中国股市能升，是因为之前跌了不少。美国股市大跌，其中一个原因也是因为之前升了不少。之前升多了，就失去炒业绩的条件。之前跌得多，就有炒业绩的条件。很快的，企业就要公布业绩了，那些在2010年业务表现不错的股就有炒业绩的条件；相信炒业绩的力量会盖过中东局势紧张所带来的压力。
中东局势紧张，也不是一面倒对所有的股产生压力。中东局势紧张，石油价格上涨，石油业及开采石油的钻油台生产商的生意会增加。如果情况坏到极量，苏彝士运河真的封了，航运股也会得益，因为如果所有的来往欧亚的船得经过非洲好望角，船只就是供不应求，运费会上升。当然，如此一来就是全球通胀。一般上，通胀会刺激股价上升。
埃及局势恶化, 最头痛的是美国。美国股市下跌是有道理的，因为过去30年，埃及总统穆巴拉克是亲美的。也因为他亲美，中东局势才能缓和。更早之前，在埃及亲苏时代，曾经封闭苏彝士运河，运河一封闭，亚洲石油，矿产，原料运往欧洲得通过非洲好望角，航运费大大增加。成本增加就导致通胀。现在，美国正在非常努力地物色可以取代穆巴拉克而又亲美的人。如果物色不到，局势的发展会失控，最坏的情况是回教极端分子上台，那么，美国就很头痛了。
现在，美国除了担心埃及局势外，也担心中东其他亲美但长期独裁专制的政权会不会像倒骨牌那样倒下？现在，约旦，沙地阿拉伯，阿联酉，科威特，都是君主专制。叙利亚的总统也已执政了很多年。埃及没有石油，亲美政权一旦倒下，最坏的情况是中东局势紧张。但是，如果沙地阿拉伯这些石油国家也变天，就是大灾难了，到时候，恐怕美军要再度出征，占领沙地阿拉伯。
中国股市为什么会回升？一个可能的原因是前一阵子跌得多了。一连串打压楼价的措施 也推出得七七八八，看来短期内会有一段较安定的日子。随之而来的是企业公布2010年还相当不错的利润，可以支持股价。
中国股市能升，是因为之前跌了不少。美国股市大跌，其中一个原因也是因为之前升了不少。之前升多了，就失去炒业绩的条件。之前跌得多，就有炒业绩的条件。很快的，企业就要公布业绩了，那些在2010年业务表现不错的股就有炒业绩的条件；相信炒业绩的力量会盖过中东局势紧张所带来的压力。
中东局势紧张，也不是一面倒对所有的股产生压力。中东局势紧张，石油价格上涨，石油业及开采石油的钻油台生产商的生意会增加。如果情况坏到极量，苏彝士运河真的封了，航运股也会得益，因为如果所有的来往欧亚的船得经过非洲好望角，船只就是供不应求，运费会上升。当然，如此一来就是全球通胀。一般上，通胀会刺激股价上升。
Saturday, February 5, 2011
分享锦集:好股难求需珍惜
数十年来，阅读上市公司常年报告书，已成为我生活中不可或缺的项目。
在阅读过程中，我常常有很大的感触，觉得做生意真的很不容易，而钱真的不易赚。
试想，一家大资本的上市公司，每年所做的生意，可能高达6亿令吉，不但没钱赚，反而蒙受亏蚀，这是多么难堪的事。
一年营收6亿令吉，表示每个月要卖出5000万令吉的货物，要动用多少的资金，多少的人力，化了多少的心思，才能达到如此的成绩？数百名员工，经过12个月的拼搏之后，到头来公司竟然亏本，那是多么令人失望的事啊！
然而，在1000家上市公司中，面对这种难堪处境的，恐怕不止少数。需知上市公司都是规模较大，组织较佳，历史较久的企业，这样也拥有较多的人才，这样的企业，竟然无利可图，其他规模小，资金少，人才缺乏的中小型公司，所面对的困难之大，处境之难，就可想而知了。
我曾在上市公司担任高职多年，有机会参与公司高层的决策会议，了解公司的营运内情，对于“生意难做”，真的感触良深。
当公司在恶劣的经营环境中，面对周转不灵或破产的威胁时，高层人员和老板所面对的压力，不是外人所能想像得到的。
不要以为老板容易做，实际上，当公司陷困时，在床上辗转难以成眠的，是老板，因为当公司倒闭，损失最大的就是他。
事业失败翻身难
员工的最大损失不过是失业，职业可以再找，但老板事业失败要东山再起可能比登天还难！老板的一生可能就这样完了啊！他忧心如焚是可以理解的。
生意为什么那么难做？
这是个资本主义社会，人人都有做生意的自由，而在这个社会中，金钱往往是地位和生活享受象征，所以人人都想赚钱，做生意是被认为有机会赚大钱的途径，每天都有数以千计的人在寻找做生意的机会，只要有利可图的生意，就一窝蜂般抢着去做。
结果是原本好赚的生意，到了竞争趋于白热化，大家竞相削价争生意时，都变得无利可图了。
较迟加入竞争行列的生意人，到较后也发现生意难做，但也得勉强支持下去，因为骑虎难下。
一门生意，尤其是涉及昂贵设备的生意，如果不成功，要放弃吗？
这些设备可能当废铁卖也没人要，如果中途改行，这些设备都要报销，损失惨重不在话下，而员工的遣散，屋租的负担，债务的摊还，都要应付。
收盘进退两难
所以，要收盘也不容易啊！在进退两难的情况下，只好拖下去，希望生意扭转，守出一个春天来，然而往往事与愿违，到最后希望还是落空，其下场之惨，不是身为员工者可以了解的。
有些上市公司，连年亏蚀，但仍勉强支撑下去，就是因为欲罢不能，有时我发现，公司其实是稍有盈利，但因负债高，利息支出大，在支付利息之后，反而亏蚀，这种企业，简直是在为银行做工而已。
作为上市公司的股东，尤其是散户，对公司的期望很大，当公司没钱赚，没办法派股息，股价又长期不振时，在股东大会上对掌管公司的大股东声色俱厉地加以责问，是常见的事，这也难怪，因为小股东用来买股票的，都是血汗钱，投资亏蚀，心怀不满是可以理解的。
但是，大股东也难做。
他持有上市公司的大部分股份，投资额大，公司亏蚀，他的损失比小股东更大。
睁大眼睛勿与狼共舞
是的，有些公司的大股东，做生意不诚实，中饱私囊，欺骗公司，不顾公司及股东的利益，这类大股东是有的，在任何行业中，都有害群之马。
我跟不少上市公司的大股东有来往，根据我的观察，大部分大股东其实都是诚实可靠，都是尽心尽力为公司赚钱的。
理由很简单，他们握有公司的大部分股份，公司所赚的钱，大部分是属于他们的，他们为什么不努力把生意做好？有什么理由故意把公司搞垮？公司垮了，他们的损失比任何股东都大，为什么他们要这样做？
有许多上市公司的大股东，公司就是他们的全部身家、事业，也是他们的主要收入来源，公司做不好，他们能安稳过日子吗？
是的，他们在公司享受高薪，享受福利，我认为不过份。因为他是为公司工作，责任重大啊。要马儿好，又要马儿不吃草，是错误的想法。
种植业难插足
但是，无可否认的，有一小部分大公司大股东，只顾私囊，不顾公司的利益，这类大股东，小股东对他们口诛笔伐，亦无可非议。
所以，小股东在选股时，要睁大眼睛，不要与狼共舞，对于长期不赚钱的公司，或是大股东有不诚实表现，最好避之则吉。上市公司多达1000家，任君选择，为什么你要与这些企业界败类做股东？没有这个必要啊！
在企业界，每一个行业都有人做，而其中一些行业，早已有人捷足先登。在该行业，根深蒂固，要动摇他们，谈何容易？有些行业，后来者根本难以插足。
就以种植公司来说，好的土地，早已为历史悠久的大种植公司所拥有，现在要在大马找到大片优良的农业地，简直难如登天。
而已拥有农业地的公司，无论大小，都奇货可居，不肯轻易脱售，造成农业地价值有升无降。现在要种植油棕，已不可能，除非到印尼去，在这种情形之下，资金不多的散户，要在盈利丰厚的油棕种植业分一杯羹，难如登天，惟一的办法，而且是人人都有机会做到的，是购买种植股，通过投资于种植股，分享油棕种植业的盈利。
要这样做，第一步要做的，就是研究上市种植公司，了解他们的一切，然后乘股价低沉时买进，作长期投资，这样其实往往比直接种油棕，成本更低，也更省事。你们为什么不这样做呢？错过这样的机会，太可惜了。
家喻户晓屹立不倒
要在一个行业中长期赚钱，不但要资本雄厚，而且要在有关行业有深厚的基础，牢固的顾客群，公司的组织要严密，监控要有系统，更重要的是要有忠心及有经验的员工，所经营的生意，要有被信任的品牌，具有这些条件，才有可能长期屹立不倒，才会经得起经济风暴的打击。
在1000家上市公司中，这类优秀企业，屈指可数，而且几乎都是家喻户晓的，散户只要购买这类公司的股票，长期持有，就不大可能亏本。
但是，你们偏偏舍此而不为，却去追逐那些业务根本还没有经过考验的，基础脆弱的公司的股票，实在令人费解。
所以，散户在股市亏钱，有时是咎由自取，怨不得别人，更怨不得股市。散户们，自我反省吧！
股市投资策略可分三等
上策
低价购买好股，长期持有，只要公司盈利不断上升，就不卖。
大马甚至全球的富豪，都是这样成就的。
中策
股票价值被严重低估时，买进好股，中长期持有，等到牛市到来，股值被严重高估时抛不出，按兵不动，等到股价回跌至被低估水平时再买回来，而且以高价卖出时所得的资金，全部买回同一只股票，反复这样做，你所拥有该股的数额越来越多，而每股成本越来越低，回酬越来越高，这样做可以致富。
下策
在股市中不分股票好坏，只看价格波动，低买高卖，抢进杀出，往往搞到茶饭不思，晚上失眠，最后焦头烂额。这是下策，下下之策！以此法在股市赚到钱的，少之又少！
散户们，能不能在股市赚钱，其实大部份决定于你本身的做法，并不是决定于外界的条件是否有利，你们的命运其实是操在你们自己手中，而不是操在别人手中，所以，停止怨天尤人吧！
千金易得，好股难求。买到好股，要懂得珍惜，不要有蝇头小利就迫不急待地卖掉，因为往往卖掉后就没法再以原价买回，以后就失去分享有关公司的成长的机会，太可惜了。
至于股价的波动，那是股市的正常现象，不必过于担心。只要公司盈利不断成长，你的股票的价值就会持续上升，短赚不如长赚。
细水长流胜过易涨易退的山溪水！好股难求需珍惜啊！
在阅读过程中，我常常有很大的感触，觉得做生意真的很不容易，而钱真的不易赚。
试想，一家大资本的上市公司，每年所做的生意，可能高达6亿令吉，不但没钱赚，反而蒙受亏蚀，这是多么难堪的事。
一年营收6亿令吉，表示每个月要卖出5000万令吉的货物，要动用多少的资金，多少的人力，化了多少的心思，才能达到如此的成绩？数百名员工，经过12个月的拼搏之后，到头来公司竟然亏本，那是多么令人失望的事啊！
然而，在1000家上市公司中，面对这种难堪处境的，恐怕不止少数。需知上市公司都是规模较大，组织较佳，历史较久的企业，这样也拥有较多的人才，这样的企业，竟然无利可图，其他规模小，资金少，人才缺乏的中小型公司，所面对的困难之大，处境之难，就可想而知了。
我曾在上市公司担任高职多年，有机会参与公司高层的决策会议，了解公司的营运内情，对于“生意难做”，真的感触良深。
当公司在恶劣的经营环境中，面对周转不灵或破产的威胁时，高层人员和老板所面对的压力，不是外人所能想像得到的。
不要以为老板容易做，实际上，当公司陷困时，在床上辗转难以成眠的，是老板，因为当公司倒闭，损失最大的就是他。
事业失败翻身难
员工的最大损失不过是失业，职业可以再找，但老板事业失败要东山再起可能比登天还难！老板的一生可能就这样完了啊！他忧心如焚是可以理解的。
生意为什么那么难做？
这是个资本主义社会，人人都有做生意的自由，而在这个社会中，金钱往往是地位和生活享受象征，所以人人都想赚钱，做生意是被认为有机会赚大钱的途径，每天都有数以千计的人在寻找做生意的机会，只要有利可图的生意，就一窝蜂般抢着去做。
结果是原本好赚的生意，到了竞争趋于白热化，大家竞相削价争生意时，都变得无利可图了。
较迟加入竞争行列的生意人，到较后也发现生意难做，但也得勉强支持下去，因为骑虎难下。
一门生意，尤其是涉及昂贵设备的生意，如果不成功，要放弃吗？
这些设备可能当废铁卖也没人要，如果中途改行，这些设备都要报销，损失惨重不在话下，而员工的遣散，屋租的负担，债务的摊还，都要应付。
收盘进退两难
所以，要收盘也不容易啊！在进退两难的情况下，只好拖下去，希望生意扭转，守出一个春天来，然而往往事与愿违，到最后希望还是落空，其下场之惨，不是身为员工者可以了解的。
有些上市公司，连年亏蚀，但仍勉强支撑下去，就是因为欲罢不能，有时我发现，公司其实是稍有盈利，但因负债高，利息支出大，在支付利息之后，反而亏蚀，这种企业，简直是在为银行做工而已。
作为上市公司的股东，尤其是散户，对公司的期望很大，当公司没钱赚，没办法派股息，股价又长期不振时，在股东大会上对掌管公司的大股东声色俱厉地加以责问，是常见的事，这也难怪，因为小股东用来买股票的，都是血汗钱，投资亏蚀，心怀不满是可以理解的。
但是，大股东也难做。
他持有上市公司的大部分股份，投资额大，公司亏蚀，他的损失比小股东更大。
睁大眼睛勿与狼共舞
是的，有些公司的大股东，做生意不诚实，中饱私囊，欺骗公司，不顾公司及股东的利益，这类大股东是有的，在任何行业中，都有害群之马。
我跟不少上市公司的大股东有来往，根据我的观察，大部分大股东其实都是诚实可靠，都是尽心尽力为公司赚钱的。
理由很简单，他们握有公司的大部分股份，公司所赚的钱，大部分是属于他们的，他们为什么不努力把生意做好？有什么理由故意把公司搞垮？公司垮了，他们的损失比任何股东都大，为什么他们要这样做？
有许多上市公司的大股东，公司就是他们的全部身家、事业，也是他们的主要收入来源，公司做不好，他们能安稳过日子吗？
是的，他们在公司享受高薪，享受福利，我认为不过份。因为他是为公司工作，责任重大啊。要马儿好，又要马儿不吃草，是错误的想法。
种植业难插足
但是，无可否认的，有一小部分大公司大股东，只顾私囊，不顾公司的利益，这类大股东，小股东对他们口诛笔伐，亦无可非议。
所以，小股东在选股时，要睁大眼睛，不要与狼共舞，对于长期不赚钱的公司，或是大股东有不诚实表现，最好避之则吉。上市公司多达1000家，任君选择，为什么你要与这些企业界败类做股东？没有这个必要啊！
在企业界，每一个行业都有人做，而其中一些行业，早已有人捷足先登。在该行业，根深蒂固，要动摇他们，谈何容易？有些行业，后来者根本难以插足。
就以种植公司来说，好的土地，早已为历史悠久的大种植公司所拥有，现在要在大马找到大片优良的农业地，简直难如登天。
而已拥有农业地的公司，无论大小，都奇货可居，不肯轻易脱售，造成农业地价值有升无降。现在要种植油棕，已不可能，除非到印尼去，在这种情形之下，资金不多的散户，要在盈利丰厚的油棕种植业分一杯羹，难如登天，惟一的办法，而且是人人都有机会做到的，是购买种植股，通过投资于种植股，分享油棕种植业的盈利。
要这样做，第一步要做的，就是研究上市种植公司，了解他们的一切，然后乘股价低沉时买进，作长期投资，这样其实往往比直接种油棕，成本更低，也更省事。你们为什么不这样做呢？错过这样的机会，太可惜了。
家喻户晓屹立不倒
要在一个行业中长期赚钱，不但要资本雄厚，而且要在有关行业有深厚的基础，牢固的顾客群，公司的组织要严密，监控要有系统，更重要的是要有忠心及有经验的员工，所经营的生意，要有被信任的品牌，具有这些条件，才有可能长期屹立不倒，才会经得起经济风暴的打击。
在1000家上市公司中，这类优秀企业，屈指可数，而且几乎都是家喻户晓的，散户只要购买这类公司的股票，长期持有，就不大可能亏本。
但是，你们偏偏舍此而不为，却去追逐那些业务根本还没有经过考验的，基础脆弱的公司的股票，实在令人费解。
所以，散户在股市亏钱，有时是咎由自取，怨不得别人，更怨不得股市。散户们，自我反省吧！
股市投资策略可分三等
上策
低价购买好股，长期持有，只要公司盈利不断上升，就不卖。
大马甚至全球的富豪，都是这样成就的。
中策
股票价值被严重低估时，买进好股，中长期持有，等到牛市到来，股值被严重高估时抛不出，按兵不动，等到股价回跌至被低估水平时再买回来，而且以高价卖出时所得的资金，全部买回同一只股票，反复这样做，你所拥有该股的数额越来越多，而每股成本越来越低，回酬越来越高，这样做可以致富。
下策
在股市中不分股票好坏，只看价格波动，低买高卖，抢进杀出，往往搞到茶饭不思，晚上失眠，最后焦头烂额。这是下策，下下之策！以此法在股市赚到钱的，少之又少！
散户们，能不能在股市赚钱，其实大部份决定于你本身的做法，并不是决定于外界的条件是否有利，你们的命运其实是操在你们自己手中，而不是操在别人手中，所以，停止怨天尤人吧！
千金易得，好股难求。买到好股，要懂得珍惜，不要有蝇头小利就迫不急待地卖掉，因为往往卖掉后就没法再以原价买回，以后就失去分享有关公司的成长的机会，太可惜了。
至于股价的波动，那是股市的正常现象，不必过于担心。只要公司盈利不断成长，你的股票的价值就会持续上升，短赚不如长赚。
细水长流胜过易涨易退的山溪水！好股难求需珍惜啊！
兔年希望
兔子是可愛而機智靈活的動物。兔年會有甚麼事情發生？不少人用各種方法試圖去預測，其實到年底自然就會一清二楚。我們不如學習兔子的警覺性，面對來年經濟的不確定及變化。
＊防不勝防，影響更甚＊
人人期待會發生的事情，通常卻不會發生，即使發生，因是意料之中，故此影響也不大。相反，出人意料的事情卻是防不勝防，影響更巨大。
最近的例子就是在２００８年年初，當時不少投資者都只是預期經濟出現衰退，而基本沒料到全球金融海嘯帶來的巨大衝擊。美國、歐洲金融問題引致的骨牌效應傳遞開來，其他地區的投資者才意識到問題的嚴重，但那時形勢已迅速變壞至一發不可收拾。
９７亞洲金融危機始於９７年下半年的泰國，同樣地，我懷疑當時有多少投資者意識到危機會席捲整個亞洲市場。雖然當時亞洲經濟已呈過熱，但我們沉醉於回歸的喜悅，沒能及時意識危機，讓市場自我運行至最後受損。
０８年金融海嘯後至現在，我們已聽到不少聲音提出，未來數年將有更嚴重的問題要正視。
我有一點驚訝的是：誰人可以有這樣的先見之明，預知數年後將發生甚麼？要知道只有很少人能夠正確預測，包括機構及個人。
美國雙赤警告響起、歐洲及周邊國家的問題，毫無疑問都將是真正威脅或即將發生的威脅。歐洲小國的問題醞釀多時並繼續發酵，如果沒有採取一些及時糾正的措施，事情就可能繼續惡化，最終帶來深遠影響。
難道我們更願意面對另一次失控？到時候，我們被推入另一次過熱階段，而大多數人可能忘
記已存在的問題，又再熱衷被市場操縱。
＊如兔子般保持警惕，迎接挑戰＊
我要講的是：我們應該保持警惕。藉新一年的開始，盡可能看清形勢，甚麼是大多數人的想法，甚麼是關注的焦點。
對於未來的一年，國際貨幣基金組織（ＩＭＦ）發表的報告指出，經濟復甦中不平衡狀況在加劇，發達經濟體與新興經濟體在復甦中出現的差異正在擴大。一方面，發達經濟體增長仍然疲弱，失業率居高不下，歐元區邊緣國家壓力再現正在造成下行風險。另方面，許多新興經濟體經濟活動仍然活躍，通貨膨脹壓力顯現，在資本流入強勁之下，甚至出現過熱跡象。新興經濟體可能需要收緊貨幣政策以遏制通脹，同時關注貨幣升值問題，以防止資產價格或信貸泡沫。
ＩＭＦ的報告已明確告訴我們真正的挑戰和威脅已擺在面前。每個國家都應該審慎研究如何令經濟可持續發展，而不是製造一個更大的問題去掩蓋正在惡化的問題。
來年的任務是艱巨的，政府、中央銀行和監管機構的一大挑戰是要充分發揮作用，為金融市場提供穩定環境。
對亞洲經濟體而言，最大的威脅是即使加大資本控制力度，亦難阻熱錢的流入，導致信貸和資產泡沫。在這種情況下，如果沒有先發制人、沒有降低過熱，將威脅到經濟的長期增長。另一威脅是金融服務業的監管，要防止市場參與者過份利用寬鬆的監管環境，雖然寬鬆的監管對新市場國家，短期受益，但長期有可能是傷害。
＊防不勝防，影響更甚＊
人人期待會發生的事情，通常卻不會發生，即使發生，因是意料之中，故此影響也不大。相反，出人意料的事情卻是防不勝防，影響更巨大。
最近的例子就是在２００８年年初，當時不少投資者都只是預期經濟出現衰退，而基本沒料到全球金融海嘯帶來的巨大衝擊。美國、歐洲金融問題引致的骨牌效應傳遞開來，其他地區的投資者才意識到問題的嚴重，但那時形勢已迅速變壞至一發不可收拾。
９７亞洲金融危機始於９７年下半年的泰國，同樣地，我懷疑當時有多少投資者意識到危機會席捲整個亞洲市場。雖然當時亞洲經濟已呈過熱，但我們沉醉於回歸的喜悅，沒能及時意識危機，讓市場自我運行至最後受損。
０８年金融海嘯後至現在，我們已聽到不少聲音提出，未來數年將有更嚴重的問題要正視。
我有一點驚訝的是：誰人可以有這樣的先見之明，預知數年後將發生甚麼？要知道只有很少人能夠正確預測，包括機構及個人。
美國雙赤警告響起、歐洲及周邊國家的問題，毫無疑問都將是真正威脅或即將發生的威脅。歐洲小國的問題醞釀多時並繼續發酵，如果沒有採取一些及時糾正的措施，事情就可能繼續惡化，最終帶來深遠影響。
難道我們更願意面對另一次失控？到時候，我們被推入另一次過熱階段，而大多數人可能忘
記已存在的問題，又再熱衷被市場操縱。
＊如兔子般保持警惕，迎接挑戰＊
我要講的是：我們應該保持警惕。藉新一年的開始，盡可能看清形勢，甚麼是大多數人的想法，甚麼是關注的焦點。
對於未來的一年，國際貨幣基金組織（ＩＭＦ）發表的報告指出，經濟復甦中不平衡狀況在加劇，發達經濟體與新興經濟體在復甦中出現的差異正在擴大。一方面，發達經濟體增長仍然疲弱，失業率居高不下，歐元區邊緣國家壓力再現正在造成下行風險。另方面，許多新興經濟體經濟活動仍然活躍，通貨膨脹壓力顯現，在資本流入強勁之下，甚至出現過熱跡象。新興經濟體可能需要收緊貨幣政策以遏制通脹，同時關注貨幣升值問題，以防止資產價格或信貸泡沫。
ＩＭＦ的報告已明確告訴我們真正的挑戰和威脅已擺在面前。每個國家都應該審慎研究如何令經濟可持續發展，而不是製造一個更大的問題去掩蓋正在惡化的問題。
來年的任務是艱巨的，政府、中央銀行和監管機構的一大挑戰是要充分發揮作用，為金融市場提供穩定環境。
對亞洲經濟體而言，最大的威脅是即使加大資本控制力度，亦難阻熱錢的流入，導致信貸和資產泡沫。在這種情況下，如果沒有先發制人、沒有降低過熱，將威脅到經濟的長期增長。另一威脅是金融服務業的監管，要防止市場參與者過份利用寬鬆的監管環境，雖然寬鬆的監管對新市場國家，短期受益，但長期有可能是傷害。
分享锦集:股市没有免费午餐
职场新鲜人，你们生活在这个电脑时代，资料唾手可得，真是幸福。跟我40年前开始股票研究，其难易真有天渊之别，不善加应用，以累积财富，实在是暴殄天物，太可惜，太浪费了。
就以上市公司的资料来源而言，40年前的60年代，一切资料均来自硬体，所有公司的年报、公告，都是印刷出来的，不但得来不易，而且速度缓慢，流转不广，投资资讯的传播和撷取，有很大的局限性，要进行公司研究，单单在资讯来源方面，就面对重重困难。
网上资讯免费
今天家家都有电脑，人人都会用电脑，只要一开电脑，过去千辛万苦才能得到的，而且还是残缺不全的资料，现在都可以轻而易举从电脑网站中取得，不但及时，而且是全面的，详尽的。
在获取资讯的速度和资讯完整性方面，40年前根本没办法跟现代相比，不善加应用以“聚财”，实在太可惜的。
更重要的是，一切网上得来的资讯，都是免费的，对收入有限的工薪阶层来说，非常重要。
40年前，一切资料都必须由研究股票的人，自掏腰包去购买，实在是一种负担，只有对股票研究有兴趣，而且到了痴迷地步的人，才肯花钱去订购资料。
就以上市公司的年报来说，主要来源有三：一是直接向上市公司索取，通常上市公司不应酬个人索取年报的要求。
我本人就曾直接写信给所有上市公司索取年报，并且要求把我列入他们的“邮寄”名单内，一有新的年报就寄给我，结果给予反应的，寥寥无几。
年报如获至宝
其次是向你购买股票的经纪行借阅，那时，股票交易所供应所有上市公司的年报给作为会员的股票经纪行，经纪行收到后，可能是由于没有地方可以储存，或是储存后也没什么用处，因为要看的人也不多。
那时大部分经纪行都尚无研究部的设立，所以也没专人去整理和保管这些资料。大部分经纪行在收到年报后就随手抛在办事处的一个角落，反而觉得碍手碍脚。
所以若有人要，就乐于“送”出去，我就从我开设户口的经纪行拿到不少年报，但索取的次数多了，经纪行的职员也感到不耐烦，起初他们以为我是“大户”，所以才那么用心去研究年报，后来发现我只是“蚊”型投资者，也就不大乐意应酬。
索取的次数多了，我自己也不好意思，后来也就“此路不通”。
再其次是年报来自已拥有股票的上市公司，作为股东，公司每年都照例寄年报给我这个小到不能再小的股东。
但那时资金有限，所能买的股票只有三、两只，每年只收到三、两本年报，如果在年报发表前就脱售股票，也就不会收到年报了。
幸亏有一些常来往的股友，收到年报之后，根本没兴趣阅读，知道我有收集年报的兴趣，就一股脑儿送给我，有时我收到的，还没有拆大信封哩。
他们视为垃圾的年报，我却如获至宝，频频请他们喝咖啡，以示感谢！
全面认识上市公司业务
我的目的，是要阅读所有上市公司的年报，使我对所有上市公司的业务，有全面的认识，从中选购。
单靠股票经纪行，股友的赠予以及自己向上市公司函索，都无法取得全部上市公司的年报。
后来我无意中发现，股票交易所设有“公司资讯服务部”，只要每年付款1200令吉，交易所就会供应所有上市公司的年报和公司发表的文告给订阅者，订阅者可以通过自己去拿或是邮寄的方式，由交易所每周寄给订阅者一次（另加邮费），后来我发现订阅的都是投资机构如银行、保险公司及基金，我似乎是全马唯一的个人订阅者。
自从发现了交易所有提供这项服务之后，我几经考虑，决定订阅。
我说“几经考虑”是因为我那时的月薪还不到400令吉，平均每个月要花100令吉去订阅年报，也算是个颇重的负担。
但我认为既然决心研究股票，就必须付出代价，我把这笔费用看作是读大学的学费。
以收藏万本年报为荣
从那时起，我就没有停止过年报的订阅，前后订阅了30多年，在开始阶段，每年订阅费为1200令吉，后来提高至2400令吉，后来再提高至3600令吉，我都每年照付不误。
前后30多年，直到2002年，马来西亚股票交易所电脑化，网上免费提供年报和公司文告给所有拥有电脑的人，交易所才停止这项订阅年报的服务，但我看硬体年报30多年，还是习惯阅读触摸得到的印刷本年报。
我曾要求交易所让我继续订阅，交易所“谢绝”了我的要求。近年来，我的股票经纪人知道我嗜年报如命，特别收集了所有上市公司的年报，以货车送到我的住所，作为对我这名特殊顾客的服务。
每次送来数百本，我每本都翻阅，仍觉比下载交易所网站的无形年报亲切。
我把住宅楼下的一间卧室，改为年报储藏室。
在卧室四壁，找人制造高至天花板的书柜，将年报分门别类，储藏起来，同时编制目录，以方便寻找。30多年来的累积，所收年报超过1万本。
古人以藏书万册为乐，我却以收藏年报逾1万本为荣。《马来西亚纪录大全》把我列为大马个人收集公司年报最多的人。
近乎狂热研究股票
在我40年的工薪生涯中，有30年化在报馆中，约10年化在商界，我把工余的时间全部化在阅读有关股票投资的书籍和公司年报上，40年于斯矣，从未间断，也从不厌倦。
是什么力量，使我坚持40多年而从不言倦？
是兴趣。对股票研究和投资的一种近乎狂热的兴趣，使我欲罢不能。
40年前，当我开始研究股票的时候，不但资料难找，而且根本没有研究的风气。尤其是在我当时做记者的怡保，根本找不到志同道合的人，可以切磋和交换心得，所以，我所走的道路是寂寞的。
多阅读投资典籍
千山我独行，是我当时的写照。
如今研究股票的人，到处都是，而且资历高得惊人。我所认识的“同志”中，就有拥有多个学位，曾任公司总裁的人，无论是在人数或素质方面，均非40年前可以比拟。
40年前，有关投资理论的书刊，几乎清一色是英文本，我所阅读的投资典籍，除了几本台湾出版的《投资学》之外，都是西方出版的英文书。
如今中国股市崛起，有关股票投资的中文书，汗牛充栋，而几乎所有的重要投资典籍，都有中文译本，对于英文阅读能力较弱的人来说，是方便得多了。
可惜公司年报，几乎都还是英文本，40年来无多大改变，只是内容方面更详尽而已。
职场新鲜人，要研究股票，比40年前是方便得多了。如果你们对股票还是认识不够，那只能怪自己不努力，不能够归咎于别人，更不能归咎于资讯不足。
职场新鲜人，要想在股市赚钱，第一步要做的就是多阅读投资典籍，第二步就是要研究个别上市公司——越深入越有利。
股市没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才有可能有一分的收获，如果你想在股市投机取巧，要快捷致富的话，我劝你最好不要踏入股市，因为股市将成为你的坟墓。
资料足只欠用功
职场新鲜人，比起40年前我开始研究股票的年代，你们是占更大优势，你们是幸福得多了，如果你们在这方面没有成就，见识不足，只能怪自己没有兴趣，信心不足或意志不够坚定 。那就只能怪自己，怪不了别人了。
资料俱足，只欠用功！
就以上市公司的资料来源而言，40年前的60年代，一切资料均来自硬体，所有公司的年报、公告，都是印刷出来的，不但得来不易，而且速度缓慢，流转不广，投资资讯的传播和撷取，有很大的局限性，要进行公司研究，单单在资讯来源方面，就面对重重困难。
网上资讯免费
今天家家都有电脑，人人都会用电脑，只要一开电脑，过去千辛万苦才能得到的，而且还是残缺不全的资料，现在都可以轻而易举从电脑网站中取得，不但及时，而且是全面的，详尽的。
在获取资讯的速度和资讯完整性方面，40年前根本没办法跟现代相比，不善加应用以“聚财”，实在太可惜的。
更重要的是，一切网上得来的资讯，都是免费的，对收入有限的工薪阶层来说，非常重要。
40年前，一切资料都必须由研究股票的人，自掏腰包去购买，实在是一种负担，只有对股票研究有兴趣，而且到了痴迷地步的人，才肯花钱去订购资料。
就以上市公司的年报来说，主要来源有三：一是直接向上市公司索取，通常上市公司不应酬个人索取年报的要求。
我本人就曾直接写信给所有上市公司索取年报，并且要求把我列入他们的“邮寄”名单内，一有新的年报就寄给我，结果给予反应的，寥寥无几。
年报如获至宝
其次是向你购买股票的经纪行借阅，那时，股票交易所供应所有上市公司的年报给作为会员的股票经纪行，经纪行收到后，可能是由于没有地方可以储存，或是储存后也没什么用处，因为要看的人也不多。
那时大部分经纪行都尚无研究部的设立，所以也没专人去整理和保管这些资料。大部分经纪行在收到年报后就随手抛在办事处的一个角落，反而觉得碍手碍脚。
所以若有人要，就乐于“送”出去，我就从我开设户口的经纪行拿到不少年报，但索取的次数多了，经纪行的职员也感到不耐烦，起初他们以为我是“大户”，所以才那么用心去研究年报，后来发现我只是“蚊”型投资者，也就不大乐意应酬。
索取的次数多了，我自己也不好意思，后来也就“此路不通”。
再其次是年报来自已拥有股票的上市公司，作为股东，公司每年都照例寄年报给我这个小到不能再小的股东。
但那时资金有限，所能买的股票只有三、两只，每年只收到三、两本年报，如果在年报发表前就脱售股票，也就不会收到年报了。
幸亏有一些常来往的股友，收到年报之后，根本没兴趣阅读，知道我有收集年报的兴趣，就一股脑儿送给我，有时我收到的，还没有拆大信封哩。
他们视为垃圾的年报，我却如获至宝，频频请他们喝咖啡，以示感谢！
全面认识上市公司业务
我的目的，是要阅读所有上市公司的年报，使我对所有上市公司的业务，有全面的认识，从中选购。
单靠股票经纪行，股友的赠予以及自己向上市公司函索，都无法取得全部上市公司的年报。
后来我无意中发现，股票交易所设有“公司资讯服务部”，只要每年付款1200令吉，交易所就会供应所有上市公司的年报和公司发表的文告给订阅者，订阅者可以通过自己去拿或是邮寄的方式，由交易所每周寄给订阅者一次（另加邮费），后来我发现订阅的都是投资机构如银行、保险公司及基金，我似乎是全马唯一的个人订阅者。
自从发现了交易所有提供这项服务之后，我几经考虑，决定订阅。
我说“几经考虑”是因为我那时的月薪还不到400令吉，平均每个月要花100令吉去订阅年报，也算是个颇重的负担。
但我认为既然决心研究股票，就必须付出代价，我把这笔费用看作是读大学的学费。
以收藏万本年报为荣
从那时起，我就没有停止过年报的订阅，前后订阅了30多年，在开始阶段，每年订阅费为1200令吉，后来提高至2400令吉，后来再提高至3600令吉，我都每年照付不误。
前后30多年，直到2002年，马来西亚股票交易所电脑化，网上免费提供年报和公司文告给所有拥有电脑的人，交易所才停止这项订阅年报的服务，但我看硬体年报30多年，还是习惯阅读触摸得到的印刷本年报。
我曾要求交易所让我继续订阅，交易所“谢绝”了我的要求。近年来，我的股票经纪人知道我嗜年报如命，特别收集了所有上市公司的年报，以货车送到我的住所，作为对我这名特殊顾客的服务。
每次送来数百本，我每本都翻阅，仍觉比下载交易所网站的无形年报亲切。
我把住宅楼下的一间卧室，改为年报储藏室。
在卧室四壁，找人制造高至天花板的书柜，将年报分门别类，储藏起来，同时编制目录，以方便寻找。30多年来的累积，所收年报超过1万本。
古人以藏书万册为乐，我却以收藏年报逾1万本为荣。《马来西亚纪录大全》把我列为大马个人收集公司年报最多的人。
近乎狂热研究股票
在我40年的工薪生涯中，有30年化在报馆中，约10年化在商界，我把工余的时间全部化在阅读有关股票投资的书籍和公司年报上，40年于斯矣，从未间断，也从不厌倦。
是什么力量，使我坚持40多年而从不言倦？
是兴趣。对股票研究和投资的一种近乎狂热的兴趣，使我欲罢不能。
40年前，当我开始研究股票的时候，不但资料难找，而且根本没有研究的风气。尤其是在我当时做记者的怡保，根本找不到志同道合的人，可以切磋和交换心得，所以，我所走的道路是寂寞的。
多阅读投资典籍
千山我独行，是我当时的写照。
如今研究股票的人，到处都是，而且资历高得惊人。我所认识的“同志”中，就有拥有多个学位，曾任公司总裁的人，无论是在人数或素质方面，均非40年前可以比拟。
40年前，有关投资理论的书刊，几乎清一色是英文本，我所阅读的投资典籍，除了几本台湾出版的《投资学》之外，都是西方出版的英文书。
如今中国股市崛起，有关股票投资的中文书，汗牛充栋，而几乎所有的重要投资典籍，都有中文译本，对于英文阅读能力较弱的人来说，是方便得多了。
可惜公司年报，几乎都还是英文本，40年来无多大改变，只是内容方面更详尽而已。
职场新鲜人，要研究股票，比40年前是方便得多了。如果你们对股票还是认识不够，那只能怪自己不努力，不能够归咎于别人，更不能归咎于资讯不足。
职场新鲜人，要想在股市赚钱，第一步要做的就是多阅读投资典籍，第二步就是要研究个别上市公司——越深入越有利。
股市没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才有可能有一分的收获，如果你想在股市投机取巧，要快捷致富的话，我劝你最好不要踏入股市，因为股市将成为你的坟墓。
资料足只欠用功
职场新鲜人，比起40年前我开始研究股票的年代，你们是占更大优势，你们是幸福得多了，如果你们在这方面没有成就，见识不足，只能怪自己没有兴趣，信心不足或意志不够坚定 。那就只能怪自己，怪不了别人了。
资料俱足，只欠用功！
Friday, February 4, 2011
兔年慎防利潤化為烏有
市況仍然淡靜，波幅收窄，確實難以炒作。昨日推介的嘉華國際，仍能錄得7.1%升幅，已算是難得，希望在兔年也能夠保持着同樣的水準。
送虎迎兔，近年尾筆者通常會較為繁忙，因為越來越多傳媒對筆者的每年流年玄學預測有興趣，近兩周幾乎每天都安排了訪問。自2004年開始，筆者都有撰寫每年的股市運程書，今年較忙，未暇執筆，但仍有作出預測，相信在農曆新年期間，大家會陸續在媒體中見到。過去多年的預測，以2007至2009年最準確，命中率達九成，應是全港以玄學推算股市走勢中最準。
展望兔年的股市，可以說是風起雲湧，今年將是「財多身弱」格局，環球經濟表面風光，股市在上半年升勢凌厲，但到了年尾將是困難重重，升幅隨時化為烏有。故此，在策略上宜先進取，後保守，留意一些被市場忽略的利淡訊號，常作警惕。
宜先進取後保守
若將此推算配合基本因素分析，其實也有脗合之處。大家都知道，現時所謂的經濟復蘇，主要是美國以量化寬鬆貨幣措拖催谷出來。數字上或許會製造表面的復蘇景象，但內裏其實仍千瘡百孔，失業情況未改善，樓市始終救不起，斷供潮隨時再爆發。而股市與商品之升，純粹是由資金推動，並無足夠的實體經濟動力支持，這就是一個泡沫。
而泡沫始終會爆破，資金不會無止境地入市，當耗盡之時便是到期之日。市場預期的通脹，已被誇大到令人人落叠，有錢而不投資便是呆子，這是何等恐怖的景況。最弊就是大家完全忽略了今次通脹的成因，因而曲解了資產市場的預期結果。
沒有實體經濟需求推動的通脹，純為資金推動的通脹，只會是惡性通脹或滯脹，最終就是看誰人接火棒，因為此等升浪不會持久，參與者並不是參與穩健的長線投資，而是在參與一個賭局，大家都希望自己不是最後接火棒之人。
送虎迎兔，近年尾筆者通常會較為繁忙，因為越來越多傳媒對筆者的每年流年玄學預測有興趣，近兩周幾乎每天都安排了訪問。自2004年開始，筆者都有撰寫每年的股市運程書，今年較忙，未暇執筆，但仍有作出預測，相信在農曆新年期間，大家會陸續在媒體中見到。過去多年的預測，以2007至2009年最準確，命中率達九成，應是全港以玄學推算股市走勢中最準。
展望兔年的股市，可以說是風起雲湧，今年將是「財多身弱」格局，環球經濟表面風光，股市在上半年升勢凌厲，但到了年尾將是困難重重，升幅隨時化為烏有。故此，在策略上宜先進取，後保守，留意一些被市場忽略的利淡訊號，常作警惕。
宜先進取後保守
若將此推算配合基本因素分析，其實也有脗合之處。大家都知道，現時所謂的經濟復蘇，主要是美國以量化寬鬆貨幣措拖催谷出來。數字上或許會製造表面的復蘇景象，但內裏其實仍千瘡百孔，失業情況未改善，樓市始終救不起，斷供潮隨時再爆發。而股市與商品之升，純粹是由資金推動，並無足夠的實體經濟動力支持，這就是一個泡沫。
而泡沫始終會爆破，資金不會無止境地入市，當耗盡之時便是到期之日。市場預期的通脹，已被誇大到令人人落叠，有錢而不投資便是呆子，這是何等恐怖的景況。最弊就是大家完全忽略了今次通脹的成因，因而曲解了資產市場的預期結果。
沒有實體經濟需求推動的通脹，純為資金推動的通脹，只會是惡性通脹或滯脹，最終就是看誰人接火棒，因為此等升浪不會持久，參與者並不是參與穩健的長線投資，而是在參與一個賭局，大家都希望自己不是最後接火棒之人。
Saturday, January 29, 2011
面对通膨 受薪族如何理财？
全球目前正面临通货膨胀的问题，以新加坡来说，通货膨胀率去年11月达3.8％，柴米油盐等食品价格纷纷上扬。许多克勤克俭的上班族，平时努力工作、赚钱，每个月将省下的薪水存进银行，多年之后开始有了积蓄，正准备多积一些钱，为自己买下人生中第一间房子，或是换一间大一点的房子让日益长大的孩子住得较为舒服，突然物价、屋价、生活必需品样样价格大幅上涨，手上的储蓄原本还可以付房子首期，但随着房价上涨，早已编好的“房梦”濒临破灭。
理财始于控制消费
的确，在通货膨胀冲击下，许多上班族每年的薪资增长不但会被通膨吃掉，连储蓄也变少了。
MasterYourFinance.com创办人吴加万说，通货膨胀相等于钱财“缩水”。物价高涨了，意味同样的东西需要花更多钱购买，日常衣食住行的费用提高，这时上班族更需要有理财的观念。
要看紧自己的荷包，吴加万首先建议说，上班族目前若还有房屋贷款，可了解一下房贷利息。如发觉利息过高，应该积极寻求重新融资（re-finance）。
他提醒说：“一般房屋贷款动不动就是几十万元，利息只要低了0.5%就很可观，每年可省上几千元，甚至1万元。”
很多人也许没有想到的是，理财始于如何消费，控制消费是理财的第一步。
吴加万说，理财之道不外乎开源节流。说到节流，尤其是通货膨胀时更应控制开销，每个人必须心里清楚，哪些钱是必须花的，哪一些是无需花费的。
吴加万举例说：“每星期到超级市场买日常用品时，最好去之前先列下家里真正需要的东西，先买必需品，有了余钱才买其他的东西，很多人没有这样的购物习惯，见到什么买什么，结果买了一些原本不那么需要的东西，例如明明是想要买三合一咖啡，结果在超市逛着逛着，因为先看到白咖啡就买了下来，到了后来还是觉得，必须买三合一咖啡，结果不自觉的多花了钱。”
吴加万也劝请一些上班族，别太追赶时髦，尤其是奢侈品与科技产品，有些求新爱时髦的上班族，一发现市场上有新产品，立刻就动了念头，想要买到手，结果越买越成习惯。
吴加万说：“看到叫自己心动的商品时，不如先忍一忍，告诉自己，隔几天再来买。隔几天之后，也许就不那么冲动了，那股原先的购买欲望也没有了。”
他说，许多科技产品例如手机、电脑等，最新产品刚推出时往往也是价钱最贵的时候，不应该立刻买下来，不如忍着一段时日，等到新商品的热潮淡退了之后，价格也会较为合理，这时候购买会节省不少钱。
谨慎选择投资产品
吴加万说，通货膨胀的时候，银行存款利息，包括定期存款都较通货膨胀率来得低，若只是把钱存进银行，钱会贬值，这时除了控制消费，少让钱财流出去之外，也应该在有了剩余的钱后考虑投资，学习钱生钱。
说到开源生钱之道，吴加万建议，可投资一些贵金属，投资品种例如黄金和白银，这两种金属一般在通货膨胀的时候价值都会上升。而相较于投资房产，投资黄金和白银需要的金钱不那么多，一般略有储蓄的上班族，基本上投资得起。
吴加万说，投资黄金和白银不一定要买实物黄金或白银，除了买实物黄金外，还可选择“纸黄金”或“纸白银”。纸黄金指黄金的纸上交易，投资者的买卖交易记录是在个人开立的“黄金存折账户”上，并不涉及实物金的提取。盈利模式即通过低买高卖，获取差价利润；“纸白银”亦是同样的交易模式。
至于投资股票，吴加万说，要熟悉及懂得股票投资才能较少风险的将钱投进股市，反之如果对股票投资一窍不通，不懂得分析企业公司的基本面，也看不懂技术图表分析，那么就不要冒着风险盲目买股票，不如投资“指数基金”较简单妥当，例如可以在股票市场投资STI基金、中国上海股票指数基金，这些都较为方便上班族投资者。
此外，吴加万说，对于上班族来说，最不可放松的一点，是持续不断在职场中提升自己的专业水平或是职业技能，这是更为实在的方法。
他说；“上班族一旦步入职场就要经常提醒自己不要原地踏步，要不断求取进步，若是十年如一日，工作能力一直没进步，这其实就是退步了，渐渐的就会落在别人后头。竞争能力不如人，升职加薪的机会自然就少了，相反的，如果能力不断提升，专业表现优秀，就算现在的老板不识宝，没有获得该有的升职加薪，总有识宝的公司或猎人头公司会找上门，一旦有另谋高就的机会，薪水自然会大幅度增加，也就有能力应付通货膨胀了。”
理财始于控制消费
的确，在通货膨胀冲击下，许多上班族每年的薪资增长不但会被通膨吃掉，连储蓄也变少了。
MasterYourFinance.com创办人吴加万说，通货膨胀相等于钱财“缩水”。物价高涨了，意味同样的东西需要花更多钱购买，日常衣食住行的费用提高，这时上班族更需要有理财的观念。
要看紧自己的荷包，吴加万首先建议说，上班族目前若还有房屋贷款，可了解一下房贷利息。如发觉利息过高，应该积极寻求重新融资（re-finance）。
他提醒说：“一般房屋贷款动不动就是几十万元，利息只要低了0.5%就很可观，每年可省上几千元，甚至1万元。”
很多人也许没有想到的是，理财始于如何消费，控制消费是理财的第一步。
吴加万说，理财之道不外乎开源节流。说到节流，尤其是通货膨胀时更应控制开销，每个人必须心里清楚，哪些钱是必须花的，哪一些是无需花费的。
吴加万举例说：“每星期到超级市场买日常用品时，最好去之前先列下家里真正需要的东西，先买必需品，有了余钱才买其他的东西，很多人没有这样的购物习惯，见到什么买什么，结果买了一些原本不那么需要的东西，例如明明是想要买三合一咖啡，结果在超市逛着逛着，因为先看到白咖啡就买了下来，到了后来还是觉得，必须买三合一咖啡，结果不自觉的多花了钱。”
吴加万也劝请一些上班族，别太追赶时髦，尤其是奢侈品与科技产品，有些求新爱时髦的上班族，一发现市场上有新产品，立刻就动了念头，想要买到手，结果越买越成习惯。
吴加万说：“看到叫自己心动的商品时，不如先忍一忍，告诉自己，隔几天再来买。隔几天之后，也许就不那么冲动了，那股原先的购买欲望也没有了。”
他说，许多科技产品例如手机、电脑等，最新产品刚推出时往往也是价钱最贵的时候，不应该立刻买下来，不如忍着一段时日，等到新商品的热潮淡退了之后，价格也会较为合理，这时候购买会节省不少钱。
谨慎选择投资产品
吴加万说，通货膨胀的时候，银行存款利息，包括定期存款都较通货膨胀率来得低，若只是把钱存进银行，钱会贬值，这时除了控制消费，少让钱财流出去之外，也应该在有了剩余的钱后考虑投资，学习钱生钱。
说到开源生钱之道，吴加万建议，可投资一些贵金属，投资品种例如黄金和白银，这两种金属一般在通货膨胀的时候价值都会上升。而相较于投资房产，投资黄金和白银需要的金钱不那么多，一般略有储蓄的上班族，基本上投资得起。
吴加万说，投资黄金和白银不一定要买实物黄金或白银，除了买实物黄金外，还可选择“纸黄金”或“纸白银”。纸黄金指黄金的纸上交易，投资者的买卖交易记录是在个人开立的“黄金存折账户”上，并不涉及实物金的提取。盈利模式即通过低买高卖，获取差价利润；“纸白银”亦是同样的交易模式。
至于投资股票，吴加万说，要熟悉及懂得股票投资才能较少风险的将钱投进股市，反之如果对股票投资一窍不通，不懂得分析企业公司的基本面，也看不懂技术图表分析，那么就不要冒着风险盲目买股票，不如投资“指数基金”较简单妥当，例如可以在股票市场投资STI基金、中国上海股票指数基金，这些都较为方便上班族投资者。
此外，吴加万说，对于上班族来说，最不可放松的一点，是持续不断在职场中提升自己的专业水平或是职业技能，这是更为实在的方法。
他说；“上班族一旦步入职场就要经常提醒自己不要原地踏步，要不断求取进步，若是十年如一日，工作能力一直没进步，这其实就是退步了，渐渐的就会落在别人后头。竞争能力不如人，升职加薪的机会自然就少了，相反的，如果能力不断提升，专业表现优秀，就算现在的老板不识宝，没有获得该有的升职加薪，总有识宝的公司或猎人头公司会找上门，一旦有另谋高就的机会，薪水自然会大幅度增加，也就有能力应付通货膨胀了。”
市场人士：房地产降温措施料 “只降买气略降价格”
最近的房地产降温措施预计会减少房地产成交量，但价格不会出现显著下滑，今年本地房价下跌预计不会超过5％。
戴德梁行（DTZ）东南亚研究部主管蔡楚芬指出，本地经济增长良好，利率持低，发展商拥有较强的持有力，新元保持强劲，加上中国大陆和香港调控房地产使得外国买家涌入，2011年本地的价格预计会保持稳定，下跌幅度不会超过5％。
戴德梁行的报告指出，卖方印花税（Sellers’ Stamp Duties，简称SSD）提高至4％到16％不等，预计会让短期投机者退出市场，导致成交量下滑。
不过并不是所有的投资者会退出市场，一些可能认为在第四年出售房地产缴纳4％的印花税是可以接受的，转而购买三四年后竣工的单位。
戴德梁行执行董事（住宅）邓淑玮说：“有地住宅、小型公寓和高档公寓估计所受影响较小。价格较低的小型公寓会继续吸引拥有闲钱的投资者或买房的单身人士。”
大量未来供应将是一大挑战
“征收印花税的期限为四年，对有地住宅基本没有影响，因为多数买家是买来长期自住。高档公寓则会继续吸引海外买家。”
如果在一段时期后需求依然持高不下，戴德梁行不排除政府会推出更多降温措施的可能性。
此外，大量的未来供应将是一大挑战。
去年下半年和今年上半年政府售地计划推出了创纪录的正选地段，新组屋的供应将让人担忧，这会使得竣工单位的数目在两三年内激增，导致价格和租金面临压力。
包括去年8月政策中承诺的组屋供应和政府售地计划的正选名单，2011年至2014年平均每年竣工的单位，将高达3万2700个，而过去十年的平均数，仅为1万6700个，这十年间平均每年新增家庭近2万3000户。
虽然公司扩张业务和外来劳工的涌入可能推高租房需求，永久居民和公民批准条件的收紧意味着来自这个组群的需求会放缓。
欣乐（SLP）国际执行董事麦俊荣也表示，过去十年本地房地产市场平均每年消化6500个单位，到了2013年和2014年，供应将是这个数字的三倍，到时可能会出现供应过剩的情况，租金会于明年下半年开始面临压力。
戴德梁行指出，由于本地住宅市场面临种种挑战，投资者可能会寻求其他房地产领域的机会，或是其他投资产品。
戴德梁行（DTZ）东南亚研究部主管蔡楚芬指出，本地经济增长良好，利率持低，发展商拥有较强的持有力，新元保持强劲，加上中国大陆和香港调控房地产使得外国买家涌入，2011年本地的价格预计会保持稳定，下跌幅度不会超过5％。
戴德梁行的报告指出，卖方印花税（Sellers’ Stamp Duties，简称SSD）提高至4％到16％不等，预计会让短期投机者退出市场，导致成交量下滑。
不过并不是所有的投资者会退出市场，一些可能认为在第四年出售房地产缴纳4％的印花税是可以接受的，转而购买三四年后竣工的单位。
戴德梁行执行董事（住宅）邓淑玮说：“有地住宅、小型公寓和高档公寓估计所受影响较小。价格较低的小型公寓会继续吸引拥有闲钱的投资者或买房的单身人士。”
大量未来供应将是一大挑战
“征收印花税的期限为四年，对有地住宅基本没有影响，因为多数买家是买来长期自住。高档公寓则会继续吸引海外买家。”
如果在一段时期后需求依然持高不下，戴德梁行不排除政府会推出更多降温措施的可能性。
此外，大量的未来供应将是一大挑战。
去年下半年和今年上半年政府售地计划推出了创纪录的正选地段，新组屋的供应将让人担忧，这会使得竣工单位的数目在两三年内激增，导致价格和租金面临压力。
包括去年8月政策中承诺的组屋供应和政府售地计划的正选名单，2011年至2014年平均每年竣工的单位，将高达3万2700个，而过去十年的平均数，仅为1万6700个，这十年间平均每年新增家庭近2万3000户。
虽然公司扩张业务和外来劳工的涌入可能推高租房需求，永久居民和公民批准条件的收紧意味着来自这个组群的需求会放缓。
欣乐（SLP）国际执行董事麦俊荣也表示，过去十年本地房地产市场平均每年消化6500个单位，到了2013年和2014年，供应将是这个数字的三倍，到时可能会出现供应过剩的情况，租金会于明年下半年开始面临压力。
戴德梁行指出，由于本地住宅市场面临种种挑战，投资者可能会寻求其他房地产领域的机会，或是其他投资产品。
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
分享锦集:写给职场新鲜人
在大学里拼了3、4年，你终于戴上方帽子，走进社会，成为职场中又一个新鲜人。
学校生涯的结束，就业生涯的开始，是人生一个重要的转折点。
你今后所走的道路，将从这个转折点折射而出，你所选择的方向，将决定你一生的荣辱。
没钱万万不能
由一个受父母庇护的青少年，脱颖而出，成为一个独立的社会人，你将面对人生许多挑战，其中之一就是如何解决财务问题。
钱不是万能，但没有钱万万不能。在你的人生旅途中，你往往会受到钱不够用的困扰。
要生活得自在，必须克服钱不够用的烦恼。
你必须知道，你不是单单属于你自己，你同时也是属于你的父母、妻子、儿女，如果你钱不够用，他们将受苦，而你没有使他们受苦的权利。
不努力，就是不负责任。
所以，你不得不努力解决钱这个最现实的难题。
在学校里，你的老师勉励你节俭和储蓄，这是好的。
但是，假如你停留在节俭和储蓄的阶段，你很难改善你的财政情况。
要改善你的财政情况，你必须学习投资，让职业与投资并驾齐驱。
学习投资就是学习让别人替你赚钱，学习“不劳而获”赚钱法，学习如何让通货膨胀为你制造财富。
学习投资就是学习如何以钱赚钱，学习如何以智力赚钱而不是以劳力赚钱。劳力赚钱，疲于奔命。
时间就是金钱，任何投资，都要经过一段时间，才有可能增值。你必须给你的投资有时间去成长，所以，投资越早开始越好。
职场新鲜人正是开始投资的最适当时机。早开始，可以从容。
不要拖延，更不要犹豫。
投资最忌迟疑不决。
资金永远不够
现在就开始行动，有多少钱就投资多少，不要等到你认为资金充足时才开始，因为资金是永远不够的。
投资需要经验，经验只能来自实践。
经验有助于你减少失误，减少失误等于提高成功机会。
原地踏步的人当然不会遭受跌倒的痛苦，但也永远享受不到奔达目的地的快乐。
不要只做个旁观者，做一个参与者。
旁观者清，参与者富。
投资的范围很广，你可以选择适合你的项目。
但有一个原则，你所选的项目必须是有增值及成长潜能的，否则就是浪费时间，浪费时间就是浪费生命，生命浪费不得。
忌会贬值项目
其次，要选择成长潜能巨大的项目，不要选择成长受到局限的投资项目，更不可选会贬值的项目，如买汽车。
举个例子，产业和股票投资，发展空间巨大无比，拥有数以亿令吉的产业和股票者，比比皆是，值得你全力以赴参与投资。
股票是众多的投资项目中较为适合工薪阶级参与的管道之一。
只要培养正确的投资理念，坚毅不拔，勤做功课，股票投资可以致富。
作为一名股票研究人及投资者，我乐意跟你分享股票投资的心得。
我一向认为，投资心得有如井水，井水不会因为汲取得多了而枯竭。
心得不会因为与别人分享而减少。
作为职场新鲜人，请听我从头说起。
股市老兵不需续看下文，因为没有这个必要，这些都是老生常谈而已。
但我希望职场新鲜人看下去，因为对你有益。
买股票=参股做生意
买股票是怎么一回事？
买股票，就是买公司的股份，买公司的股份就是参股做生意。
参股做生意能不能够赚钱，取决于你所参与的生意的成败。
所以，在参股之前，你一定要了解你的公司，了解你的公司所做的生意能否赚钱，了解越深越好。
要了解所做的生意能不能赚钱，首先要知道的是这家公司所做的是什么生意，而这种生意在目前和可以预见的将来，有无可能赚钱。
惟有在详细研究了所有可以获得的资料，以及考虑了所有影响这盘生意的因素之后，你觉得这盘生意是可以赚钱的，公司的前景是亮丽的，你才应该作出投资于这家公司的决定——从股市买进这家公司的股票，就成为该公司的股东了。
拥有公司资产
你所购买的股票，是这家公司原有的股东转让给你的。
作为公司的股东，你其实拥有这家公司的一部分资产，你所拥有的巴仙率，跟你的投资额成正比，作为股东，你有分享公司盈利的权利，这个权利的大小，也是跟你的股权大小成正比。
作为公司的股东，你其实就是该公司的老板之一。
尽管所持股份微不足道，但你还是该公司数以千计老板之一，这个身分是受到法律保护的。
股票投资就是这么一回事。
但是，很不幸的，现在的股市中人，很少人作如是想。
忘了原始道理
99%股市中人视股票为一张买来卖去的文件，这份文件的价格天天在变动，低买高卖，被认为是股市赚钱的最好方法。至于股票（份）的价值，根本无人问津。
读到这里，也许你会对这些浅显的道理，嗤之以鼻。
也许你对于这些幼稚园般的道理，早已了然于心，却不屑一顾。
实际上，正因为几乎所有的人，就因为忘记了这个最原始的道理，才会在股市搞到焦头烂额。
态度决定成败
如果每个人都养成一种习惯，在买进股票之前，提醒自己，他所买的是公司的股份，他是在参股做生意，他对股票就马上有不同的看法。
他会马上想到，参股做生意应有所认识，有了认识，就可以减少失误。
减少失误，等于提高参股做生意的成功机会。
是的，股票投资成败，与他所持的态度息息相关。
态度正确，投资之路才会越走越平坦。不正确，举步维艰。
职场新鲜人如果一开始就抱着快速致富的念头进入股市，最终必粉身碎骨。
投机取巧，下场悲惨。
2011年新春伊始，作为职场新鲜人，正是你作出明智抉择的最适当时光。
好的开始，是成功了一半。跨出正确的第一步吧！
牛市正是学习股票投资的好时机，你应该坐言起行！
学校生涯的结束，就业生涯的开始，是人生一个重要的转折点。
你今后所走的道路，将从这个转折点折射而出，你所选择的方向，将决定你一生的荣辱。
没钱万万不能
由一个受父母庇护的青少年，脱颖而出，成为一个独立的社会人，你将面对人生许多挑战，其中之一就是如何解决财务问题。
钱不是万能，但没有钱万万不能。在你的人生旅途中，你往往会受到钱不够用的困扰。
要生活得自在，必须克服钱不够用的烦恼。
你必须知道，你不是单单属于你自己，你同时也是属于你的父母、妻子、儿女，如果你钱不够用，他们将受苦，而你没有使他们受苦的权利。
不努力，就是不负责任。
所以，你不得不努力解决钱这个最现实的难题。
在学校里，你的老师勉励你节俭和储蓄，这是好的。
但是，假如你停留在节俭和储蓄的阶段，你很难改善你的财政情况。
要改善你的财政情况，你必须学习投资，让职业与投资并驾齐驱。
学习投资就是学习让别人替你赚钱，学习“不劳而获”赚钱法，学习如何让通货膨胀为你制造财富。
学习投资就是学习如何以钱赚钱，学习如何以智力赚钱而不是以劳力赚钱。劳力赚钱，疲于奔命。
时间就是金钱，任何投资，都要经过一段时间，才有可能增值。你必须给你的投资有时间去成长，所以，投资越早开始越好。
职场新鲜人正是开始投资的最适当时机。早开始，可以从容。
不要拖延，更不要犹豫。
投资最忌迟疑不决。
资金永远不够
现在就开始行动，有多少钱就投资多少，不要等到你认为资金充足时才开始，因为资金是永远不够的。
投资需要经验，经验只能来自实践。
经验有助于你减少失误，减少失误等于提高成功机会。
原地踏步的人当然不会遭受跌倒的痛苦，但也永远享受不到奔达目的地的快乐。
不要只做个旁观者，做一个参与者。
旁观者清，参与者富。
投资的范围很广，你可以选择适合你的项目。
但有一个原则，你所选的项目必须是有增值及成长潜能的，否则就是浪费时间，浪费时间就是浪费生命，生命浪费不得。
忌会贬值项目
其次，要选择成长潜能巨大的项目，不要选择成长受到局限的投资项目，更不可选会贬值的项目，如买汽车。
举个例子，产业和股票投资，发展空间巨大无比，拥有数以亿令吉的产业和股票者，比比皆是，值得你全力以赴参与投资。
股票是众多的投资项目中较为适合工薪阶级参与的管道之一。
只要培养正确的投资理念，坚毅不拔，勤做功课，股票投资可以致富。
作为一名股票研究人及投资者，我乐意跟你分享股票投资的心得。
我一向认为，投资心得有如井水，井水不会因为汲取得多了而枯竭。
心得不会因为与别人分享而减少。
作为职场新鲜人，请听我从头说起。
股市老兵不需续看下文，因为没有这个必要，这些都是老生常谈而已。
但我希望职场新鲜人看下去，因为对你有益。
买股票=参股做生意
买股票是怎么一回事？
买股票，就是买公司的股份，买公司的股份就是参股做生意。
参股做生意能不能够赚钱，取决于你所参与的生意的成败。
所以，在参股之前，你一定要了解你的公司，了解你的公司所做的生意能否赚钱，了解越深越好。
要了解所做的生意能不能赚钱，首先要知道的是这家公司所做的是什么生意，而这种生意在目前和可以预见的将来，有无可能赚钱。
惟有在详细研究了所有可以获得的资料，以及考虑了所有影响这盘生意的因素之后，你觉得这盘生意是可以赚钱的，公司的前景是亮丽的，你才应该作出投资于这家公司的决定——从股市买进这家公司的股票，就成为该公司的股东了。
拥有公司资产
你所购买的股票，是这家公司原有的股东转让给你的。
作为公司的股东，你其实拥有这家公司的一部分资产，你所拥有的巴仙率，跟你的投资额成正比，作为股东，你有分享公司盈利的权利，这个权利的大小，也是跟你的股权大小成正比。
作为公司的股东，你其实就是该公司的老板之一。
尽管所持股份微不足道，但你还是该公司数以千计老板之一，这个身分是受到法律保护的。
股票投资就是这么一回事。
但是，很不幸的，现在的股市中人，很少人作如是想。
忘了原始道理
99%股市中人视股票为一张买来卖去的文件，这份文件的价格天天在变动，低买高卖，被认为是股市赚钱的最好方法。至于股票（份）的价值，根本无人问津。
读到这里，也许你会对这些浅显的道理，嗤之以鼻。
也许你对于这些幼稚园般的道理，早已了然于心，却不屑一顾。
实际上，正因为几乎所有的人，就因为忘记了这个最原始的道理，才会在股市搞到焦头烂额。
态度决定成败
如果每个人都养成一种习惯，在买进股票之前，提醒自己，他所买的是公司的股份，他是在参股做生意，他对股票就马上有不同的看法。
他会马上想到，参股做生意应有所认识，有了认识，就可以减少失误。
减少失误，等于提高参股做生意的成功机会。
是的，股票投资成败，与他所持的态度息息相关。
态度正确，投资之路才会越走越平坦。不正确，举步维艰。
职场新鲜人如果一开始就抱着快速致富的念头进入股市，最终必粉身碎骨。
投机取巧，下场悲惨。
2011年新春伊始，作为职场新鲜人，正是你作出明智抉择的最适当时光。
好的开始，是成功了一半。跨出正确的第一步吧！
牛市正是学习股票投资的好时机，你应该坐言起行！
分享锦集：了解你的公司
对于股票投资，我一向坚持，不了解，就不买。
但是，很遗憾的，大部分人无法做到。
首先是因为绝大多数投资者，都是受薪人士，没有做生意的头脑和认识，作为生意的门外汉，要他们判断这种生意能不能赚钱有一定的难度。
内行人内行事
所以，让打工仔去投资做生意，等于叫门外汉去做内行人的事。
这种情形，其实不局限于受教育不多的普通职员，即使是受过高等教育的专业人士亦如此。
例如做医生的，对医药，他是专家，但对建筑业，他可是个门外汉，一窍不通，认识水平可能还比不上一名建筑公司职员。
所以，在投资建筑股时他不会比建筑公司职员高明。
其次，是小股东没有了解公司的能力，上市公司其实是相当透明化的。
股市千变万化
投资者可以从www.bursamalaysia.com下载所有有关公司的资料，只要细读这些资料，再以常识判断，就有可能对有关上市公司有较为深入的了解，作出较为合理的判断，避过股票投资的一些陷阱，提高胜算，但多数没有解读资料的能力。
许多人视读上市公司资料为畏途，认为枯燥无味。
以我浸淫股市四十年的经验，刚好相反，股票和股市，千变万化，时时刻刻都有惊奇显现，所谓套套新鲜，怎么会枯燥无味呢？
股票资料趣味无穷
只要你留意，实际上，股票的资料，不但俯拾即是，而且趣味无穷。
随手举一个例子：1月4日《南洋商报》<雪隆版>C9页有一则报道“第二加影城镇置业佳地”，对Kajang 2这个新镇有颇为详尽的报道。
年年赚钱
对于普通读者来说，这不过是一则有关加影产业的报道，但是，对我这名股票研究人来说，这可是一份有用的资料，增加了我对上市公司美景集团（Metro Kajang）的认识。
犹记一年多前，我到加影参加一位朋友的洋楼新居入伙礼，在座嘉宾中不少是屋主来自外地的老同学。
屋主把他们介绍给我认识，当他们知道我是冷眼时，就问我：“有什么股可以买啊？”我马上说：“现在你在加影，就买Metro Kajang吧！买了就不要卖！”那时美景的股价在1令吉上下浮沉。
我当时这么说的道理很简单，以每股1令吉参股净资产的价值2令吉80仙，20多年来年年赚钱的公司，实在太值得了。
低价购地
那时美景集团刚以8000万令吉买进第二加影城镇的273英亩土地，每亩买价还不到30万令吉。
这段宝地就在加影市区边缘，地点太好了，我很惊讶该公司有办法以如此低廉的价格买到该段地。
每年回酬20%
该公司在2008年5月5日向股票交易所宣布此项收购时清楚地说：该公司将以8年时间发展这段地为新镇，销售总值将达15亿令吉。
我估计，这项计划可以取得30%的利润，等于在8年中可赚进4亿5000万令吉，平均每年可赚超过5000万令吉，以美景当时的资本计算，每年每股就可以赚20仙以上，而其他的业务还不包括在内。
以每股1令吉买进该公司的股票，等于每年有20%的回酬，这不是很值得投资吗？
我当时随口建议买美景，理由在此。
《南洋商报》1月4日关于第二加影城的报道说，这段土地将建1300个单位住宅，首期139间双层排屋和104间半独立洋楼已于去年12月推介，说明了此计划已正式启动，将为公司带来盈利。
我举这个例子，说明了投资者只要勤于做功课，时刻留意所投资公司的业务讯息，要对公司有一定程度的了解，并不是那么困难。
犹豫不决错失良机
了解公司的潜能之后，就有胆识在公司股价低沉时，买进其股份，长期持有，以分享公司的盈利。
油棕贡献盈利
若能贴身跟进上市公司的发展，你就有能力比较公司的价值。
例如，另一家上市公司英芝肯尼（INCH Kenneth Kajang）在去年12月6日宣布以2亿6850万令吉，脱售加影的463.51英亩油棕园给友乃德置地（UEM Land），平均每亩售价约60万令吉，比第二加影城土地的买价30万令吉高出一倍，而地点远不如第二加影城，可见美景买到便宜地。
美景在印尼加里曼丹的4万英亩油棕园，已于去年杪完成种植，三年前种下的第一批油棕已开始结果，预料油棕园将来将成为公司的新成长区。
2011年新年伊始，股市牛气冲天，今年将是个牛年，股友不可犹豫不决，错过赚钱机会。
要赚钱，首先要做的，就是做功课——尽量了解你的公司，做个明智的小股东。
但是，很遗憾的，大部分人无法做到。
首先是因为绝大多数投资者，都是受薪人士，没有做生意的头脑和认识，作为生意的门外汉，要他们判断这种生意能不能赚钱有一定的难度。
内行人内行事
所以，让打工仔去投资做生意，等于叫门外汉去做内行人的事。
这种情形，其实不局限于受教育不多的普通职员，即使是受过高等教育的专业人士亦如此。
例如做医生的，对医药，他是专家，但对建筑业，他可是个门外汉，一窍不通，认识水平可能还比不上一名建筑公司职员。
所以，在投资建筑股时他不会比建筑公司职员高明。
其次，是小股东没有了解公司的能力，上市公司其实是相当透明化的。
股市千变万化
投资者可以从www.bursamalaysia.com下载所有有关公司的资料，只要细读这些资料，再以常识判断，就有可能对有关上市公司有较为深入的了解，作出较为合理的判断，避过股票投资的一些陷阱，提高胜算，但多数没有解读资料的能力。
许多人视读上市公司资料为畏途，认为枯燥无味。
以我浸淫股市四十年的经验，刚好相反，股票和股市，千变万化，时时刻刻都有惊奇显现，所谓套套新鲜，怎么会枯燥无味呢？
股票资料趣味无穷
只要你留意，实际上，股票的资料，不但俯拾即是，而且趣味无穷。
随手举一个例子：1月4日《南洋商报》<雪隆版>C9页有一则报道“第二加影城镇置业佳地”，对Kajang 2这个新镇有颇为详尽的报道。
年年赚钱
对于普通读者来说，这不过是一则有关加影产业的报道，但是，对我这名股票研究人来说，这可是一份有用的资料，增加了我对上市公司美景集团（Metro Kajang）的认识。
犹记一年多前，我到加影参加一位朋友的洋楼新居入伙礼，在座嘉宾中不少是屋主来自外地的老同学。
屋主把他们介绍给我认识，当他们知道我是冷眼时，就问我：“有什么股可以买啊？”我马上说：“现在你在加影，就买Metro Kajang吧！买了就不要卖！”那时美景的股价在1令吉上下浮沉。
我当时这么说的道理很简单，以每股1令吉参股净资产的价值2令吉80仙，20多年来年年赚钱的公司，实在太值得了。
低价购地
那时美景集团刚以8000万令吉买进第二加影城镇的273英亩土地，每亩买价还不到30万令吉。
这段宝地就在加影市区边缘，地点太好了，我很惊讶该公司有办法以如此低廉的价格买到该段地。
每年回酬20%
该公司在2008年5月5日向股票交易所宣布此项收购时清楚地说：该公司将以8年时间发展这段地为新镇，销售总值将达15亿令吉。
我估计，这项计划可以取得30%的利润，等于在8年中可赚进4亿5000万令吉，平均每年可赚超过5000万令吉，以美景当时的资本计算，每年每股就可以赚20仙以上，而其他的业务还不包括在内。
以每股1令吉买进该公司的股票，等于每年有20%的回酬，这不是很值得投资吗？
我当时随口建议买美景，理由在此。
《南洋商报》1月4日关于第二加影城的报道说，这段土地将建1300个单位住宅，首期139间双层排屋和104间半独立洋楼已于去年12月推介，说明了此计划已正式启动，将为公司带来盈利。
我举这个例子，说明了投资者只要勤于做功课，时刻留意所投资公司的业务讯息，要对公司有一定程度的了解，并不是那么困难。
犹豫不决错失良机
了解公司的潜能之后，就有胆识在公司股价低沉时，买进其股份，长期持有，以分享公司的盈利。
油棕贡献盈利
若能贴身跟进上市公司的发展，你就有能力比较公司的价值。
例如，另一家上市公司英芝肯尼（INCH Kenneth Kajang）在去年12月6日宣布以2亿6850万令吉，脱售加影的463.51英亩油棕园给友乃德置地（UEM Land），平均每亩售价约60万令吉，比第二加影城土地的买价30万令吉高出一倍，而地点远不如第二加影城，可见美景买到便宜地。
美景在印尼加里曼丹的4万英亩油棕园，已于去年杪完成种植，三年前种下的第一批油棕已开始结果，预料油棕园将来将成为公司的新成长区。
2011年新年伊始，股市牛气冲天，今年将是个牛年，股友不可犹豫不决，错过赚钱机会。
要赚钱，首先要做的，就是做功课——尽量了解你的公司，做个明智的小股东。
分享锦集：从创业到参股
老陈大学毕业后，进入一家大公司工作，由普通的行政人员做起，经过十多年的拼搏，终於爬上了主管的地位，挤身于高薪职员，手头也有一笔颇为可观的储蓄。
在开始迈入中年，儿女开始进入中学时，老陈计算一下，在5、6年之后，儿女将一个跟着一个进入大学，那笔开支可不小。
他知道，在应付了3个儿女的高等教育费之后，退休后就能靠公积金渡晚年，生活肯定不会宽裕，於是兴起了创业的念头。
有了这种想法之后，老陈跟几个年龄相若的老友提到此事，大家都跃跃欲试。
食品需求永在
但是要从事那个行业呢？
经过了一番讨论之后，他们选择了与“食”有关的行业，他们认为民以食为天，这方面的需求永远存在。
进一步分析，他们发现食品业可分为两大类。
第一类是服务业，就是经营食品贸易和开餐厅。这一类生意竞争异常激烈，可以从餐厅此起彼扑窥见一斑，更何况此行业必须亲力亲为，否则的话，很容易出现纰漏。
第二类是食品制造业，可以分为即食熟食和乾粮，包括快熟面、饼干、糖果和西饼。
经过研究之后，他们圈定了食品制造业中的饼干业，他们认为人们日益富裕，高素质饼干将受欢迎，此行业有作为。
创业说易行难
在深入研究之后，他们发现创业说起来容易，做起来困难重重。
1.资金问题：
小型工厂，机器设备不够先进，品质不如人，更何况规模没有达到一定的水平，每单位生产成本太高，恐怕难以与大厂竞争。
2.技术问题：
饼干要做得好，不但要有技术，而且还要不断研发新产品，以迎合市场要求。他们没有这方面的人才。
3.管理问题：
他们都有稳定的职业，而且需要那份薪水养家，谁都不愿冒险放弃职业去创业，请专业经理管理嘛，始终不放心，何况公司规模不大，出不起高薪以吸引管理专才。
4.市场问题：
饼干作为消费品，需要打响品牌，才能赢得消费人的信心，打响品牌不但需要投入大笔开发资金，而且要有经验的人才去负责，不是一朝一夕可以产生效果的。
要取得一定的市场份额，需要时间，除非有雄厚的财力作后盾，这场仗不易打。
经过了多次的讨论之后，这项做饼干的投资计划，始终无法落实，最后胎死腹中。
但是，这项计划使老陈对制造饼干这个行业，有了深入的认识，他始终认为，这个行业是有潜能的，只要管理得好，品质优良，赢得消费人的信任，这个行业是有利可图的。
他发现，在从事饼干制造业的上市公司中，那些管理得好的公司，如阿波罗食品（Apollo，6432，主板消费产品股）、合成（CIHldg，2828，主板贸服股），都长期取得可观的盈利，派发丰厚的股息。
于是，他念头一转，既然设饼干厂的计划无法落实，他何不参股於上市饼干公司？
他对股票投资有正确观念。他知道，购买上市公司的股份（票），跟投资于新创私人饼干公司，并没有什么分别。
他于是着手研究所有在大马股票交易所上市的饼干公司。
他从http://www.bursamalaysia.com，下载所有饼干公司的招股说明书、历年的年报、季报和公司发表过的文告，详细阅读，深入剖析，寻找他心仪的公司作为投资对象。
他的选择标准为：
1. 历史颇为悠久，基础颇为稳固及业绩表现稳健的公司。
2. 股价合理，作为反向投资者，他选择被投资者忽略，股价长期处在低水平的公司。
根据以上两个标准，他选择了伦敦食品（LONBISC，7126，主板消费产品股）。
他把伦敦食品上市以来9年的营业额、每股净利、股息额及每股净资产，列成一个表，一目了然。（见附表）
他将根据数字和事实，经过谨慎考虑后，理智地作出他的投资决定。
准备长期持有
他对股票投资慎重其事，因为他知道他所买的是公司的股份，买公司的股份，就是买事业，做事业是长期的事，所以，如果他决定投资於伦敦食品的话，他就准备长期持有，与该公司一齐成长。
老陈的投资模式，其实可以应用在其他行业的上市公司上。
投资者最好是从他从事的行业着手，这样他对有关行业有深入的认识，研究起来，事半功倍。
假如你是在银行工作，那么就研究银行股吧。从上市银行中选出你有信心的银行，趁低价买进，
作为长期投资。
就业投资并行
假如你是在产业界工作，就研究及投资于你信任的上市产业公司吧！
其他行业，如建筑材料（洋灰、钢铁）、食品工作、车业、种植业、手套业……等等，都可如法炮制。
作为受薪职员，你一方面可以保持你的职业，一方面参股于上市公司，以分享他们的利润。
职业与投资，双管齐下，实在是两全其美。
在大马股票交易所上市的公司，超过1000家，包括各主要行业的企业，只要你勤于做功课，一定可以找到几家值得你投资的公司。
机会属于肯下功夫做功课的人。
在开始迈入中年，儿女开始进入中学时，老陈计算一下，在5、6年之后，儿女将一个跟着一个进入大学，那笔开支可不小。
他知道，在应付了3个儿女的高等教育费之后，退休后就能靠公积金渡晚年，生活肯定不会宽裕，於是兴起了创业的念头。
有了这种想法之后，老陈跟几个年龄相若的老友提到此事，大家都跃跃欲试。
食品需求永在
但是要从事那个行业呢？
经过了一番讨论之后，他们选择了与“食”有关的行业，他们认为民以食为天，这方面的需求永远存在。
进一步分析，他们发现食品业可分为两大类。
第一类是服务业，就是经营食品贸易和开餐厅。这一类生意竞争异常激烈，可以从餐厅此起彼扑窥见一斑，更何况此行业必须亲力亲为，否则的话，很容易出现纰漏。
第二类是食品制造业，可以分为即食熟食和乾粮，包括快熟面、饼干、糖果和西饼。
经过研究之后，他们圈定了食品制造业中的饼干业，他们认为人们日益富裕，高素质饼干将受欢迎，此行业有作为。
创业说易行难
在深入研究之后，他们发现创业说起来容易，做起来困难重重。
1.资金问题：
小型工厂，机器设备不够先进，品质不如人，更何况规模没有达到一定的水平，每单位生产成本太高，恐怕难以与大厂竞争。
2.技术问题：
饼干要做得好，不但要有技术，而且还要不断研发新产品，以迎合市场要求。他们没有这方面的人才。
3.管理问题：
他们都有稳定的职业，而且需要那份薪水养家，谁都不愿冒险放弃职业去创业，请专业经理管理嘛，始终不放心，何况公司规模不大，出不起高薪以吸引管理专才。
4.市场问题：
饼干作为消费品，需要打响品牌，才能赢得消费人的信心，打响品牌不但需要投入大笔开发资金，而且要有经验的人才去负责，不是一朝一夕可以产生效果的。
要取得一定的市场份额，需要时间，除非有雄厚的财力作后盾，这场仗不易打。
经过了多次的讨论之后，这项做饼干的投资计划，始终无法落实，最后胎死腹中。
但是，这项计划使老陈对制造饼干这个行业，有了深入的认识，他始终认为，这个行业是有潜能的，只要管理得好，品质优良，赢得消费人的信任，这个行业是有利可图的。
他发现，在从事饼干制造业的上市公司中，那些管理得好的公司，如阿波罗食品（Apollo，6432，主板消费产品股）、合成（CIHldg，2828，主板贸服股），都长期取得可观的盈利，派发丰厚的股息。
于是，他念头一转，既然设饼干厂的计划无法落实，他何不参股於上市饼干公司？
他对股票投资有正确观念。他知道，购买上市公司的股份（票），跟投资于新创私人饼干公司，并没有什么分别。
他于是着手研究所有在大马股票交易所上市的饼干公司。
他从http://www.bursamalaysia.com，下载所有饼干公司的招股说明书、历年的年报、季报和公司发表过的文告，详细阅读，深入剖析，寻找他心仪的公司作为投资对象。
他的选择标准为：
1. 历史颇为悠久，基础颇为稳固及业绩表现稳健的公司。
2. 股价合理，作为反向投资者，他选择被投资者忽略，股价长期处在低水平的公司。
根据以上两个标准，他选择了伦敦食品（LONBISC，7126，主板消费产品股）。
他把伦敦食品上市以来9年的营业额、每股净利、股息额及每股净资产，列成一个表，一目了然。（见附表）
他将根据数字和事实，经过谨慎考虑后，理智地作出他的投资决定。
准备长期持有
他对股票投资慎重其事，因为他知道他所买的是公司的股份，买公司的股份，就是买事业，做事业是长期的事，所以，如果他决定投资於伦敦食品的话，他就准备长期持有，与该公司一齐成长。
老陈的投资模式，其实可以应用在其他行业的上市公司上。
投资者最好是从他从事的行业着手，这样他对有关行业有深入的认识，研究起来，事半功倍。
假如你是在银行工作，那么就研究银行股吧。从上市银行中选出你有信心的银行，趁低价买进，
作为长期投资。
就业投资并行
假如你是在产业界工作，就研究及投资于你信任的上市产业公司吧！
其他行业，如建筑材料（洋灰、钢铁）、食品工作、车业、种植业、手套业……等等，都可如法炮制。
作为受薪职员，你一方面可以保持你的职业，一方面参股于上市公司，以分享他们的利润。
职业与投资，双管齐下，实在是两全其美。
在大马股票交易所上市的公司，超过1000家，包括各主要行业的企业，只要你勤于做功课，一定可以找到几家值得你投资的公司。
机会属于肯下功夫做功课的人。
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Singapore Reits - Right ingredients
S-Reits is in a sweet spot.
While healthy underlying fundamentals should translate into quality 4Q10 earnings, the depressed interest rate environment will benefit the sector through lower refinancing costs and provide cheap funding for yield accretive acquisitions. Furthermore, CLSA’s expectation of a strengthening SGD (S$1.15/USD by end of 2011) will garner higher interest among foreign institutional investors which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax. Maintain Overweight.
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be in line with our expectations.
3Q10 revenue growth of 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY were driven by both organic and inorganic growth, we expect the trend to sustain going into 4Q10.
Rising occupancies, positive rental reversions and contribution from acquisitions were key trends over the past few quarters.
Sector Ebitda margins improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates from by the government.
Interest rates to remain depressed
CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with SIBOR at 0.20% over this period.
Depressed interest rates will continue to benefit the S-Reits through lower cost of debt and provide cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
SGD1.3016/USD is currently near a 10year low.
Expect MAS to combat rising inflation (6.7% CLSA 2011 forecast) by further appreciating the currency in 2011. CLSA forecast this to hit SGD1.15/USD by 2011.
This suggests an 11.6% currency appreciation, fuelling interest among US and foreign based funds which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax.
Local Reits are beneficiaries – CMT, AREIT, CREIT, Cache, MIT, Suntec, FCT
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain Overweight on S-Reits.
Further catalysts in the sector include lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings and DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions.
The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation.
We like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. (ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit).
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be healthy with the first results kicking off next Monday. 3Q10 revenue growth of Reits under our coverage showed a 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY increase and we expect the trend to sustain into 4Q10 driven by both organic and inorganic growth. Most of the Reits under our coverage benefitted not only from rising occupancies and positive rental reversions but also new earnings contribution from acquisitions made in 2010.
Reits which benefitted from higher occupancies include Suntec Reit, Ascott Reit and CMT. Meanwhile, K-Reit and Cambridge Reit which divested part of their portfolio saw negative growth sequentially. However, we expect topline growth to improve as K-Reit’s MBFC phase 1 acquisition starts to contribute in 1Q11 and Cambridge Reit continues on its acquisition expansion mode.
Sequentially, Ebitda margins for the sector also improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates granted by the government in 2010. Along with the acquisitions, higher trust expenses, management fees and maintenance expenses also contributed to the margin erosion on a YoY basis.
Interest rates to remain depressed.
The depressed interest rates in Singapore will continue to benefit the S-Reits both in terms of refinancing as well as providing cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months. CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with the Singapore interbank offer rates at 0.20% over this period. With such low interest rates, we expect asset acquisitions in the sector to gain further traction. Cross border Reits would better positioned as they are able to tap into higher yielding assets outside of Singapore in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
The SGD currently at SGD1.3016/USD is near a 10year low and just 1.5% above the all time low of SGD1.2822/USD on 4th November 2010. We expect the Singapore dollar’s strength to persist throughout 2011 driven by MAS’s policy to combat inflation (CLSA forecast of 6.7% in 2011) through appreciating the SGD currency. Our economics team forecast the Singapore dollar to touch SGD$1.15/USD by end of the year and even lower at SGD$1.13/USD by end of 2012. This suggests that the SGD could potentially appreciate by a further 11.6% by end of the year.
The prospect of an appreciating currency could level the playing field for US based funds and generate a higher level of interests in the S-Reits sector among these US based funds. Currently, foreign institutional investors are subjected to a 10% withholding tax on distributions from the Reits. With the forecast of an 11.6% appreciation in the SGD/USD, the 10% withholding tax impact will essentially be negated in our view. Key beneficiaries among the SReits include purely Singapore focused Reits, CMT, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, Cache Logistic, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CCT, Suntec Reit and Frasers CentrePoint Trust.
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain our Overweight on the S-Reits. Further catalysts in the sector can come in the form of lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings in the low interest rate environment as well as DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions. The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation. In this space, we like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. Stocks which we have a positive recommendation includes ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit.
While healthy underlying fundamentals should translate into quality 4Q10 earnings, the depressed interest rate environment will benefit the sector through lower refinancing costs and provide cheap funding for yield accretive acquisitions. Furthermore, CLSA’s expectation of a strengthening SGD (S$1.15/USD by end of 2011) will garner higher interest among foreign institutional investors which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax. Maintain Overweight.
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be in line with our expectations.
3Q10 revenue growth of 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY were driven by both organic and inorganic growth, we expect the trend to sustain going into 4Q10.
Rising occupancies, positive rental reversions and contribution from acquisitions were key trends over the past few quarters.
Sector Ebitda margins improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates from by the government.
Interest rates to remain depressed
CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with SIBOR at 0.20% over this period.
Depressed interest rates will continue to benefit the S-Reits through lower cost of debt and provide cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
SGD1.3016/USD is currently near a 10year low.
Expect MAS to combat rising inflation (6.7% CLSA 2011 forecast) by further appreciating the currency in 2011. CLSA forecast this to hit SGD1.15/USD by 2011.
This suggests an 11.6% currency appreciation, fuelling interest among US and foreign based funds which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax.
Local Reits are beneficiaries – CMT, AREIT, CREIT, Cache, MIT, Suntec, FCT
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain Overweight on S-Reits.
Further catalysts in the sector include lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings and DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions.
The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation.
We like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. (ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit).
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be healthy with the first results kicking off next Monday. 3Q10 revenue growth of Reits under our coverage showed a 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY increase and we expect the trend to sustain into 4Q10 driven by both organic and inorganic growth. Most of the Reits under our coverage benefitted not only from rising occupancies and positive rental reversions but also new earnings contribution from acquisitions made in 2010.
Reits which benefitted from higher occupancies include Suntec Reit, Ascott Reit and CMT. Meanwhile, K-Reit and Cambridge Reit which divested part of their portfolio saw negative growth sequentially. However, we expect topline growth to improve as K-Reit’s MBFC phase 1 acquisition starts to contribute in 1Q11 and Cambridge Reit continues on its acquisition expansion mode.
Sequentially, Ebitda margins for the sector also improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates granted by the government in 2010. Along with the acquisitions, higher trust expenses, management fees and maintenance expenses also contributed to the margin erosion on a YoY basis.
Interest rates to remain depressed.
The depressed interest rates in Singapore will continue to benefit the S-Reits both in terms of refinancing as well as providing cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months. CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with the Singapore interbank offer rates at 0.20% over this period. With such low interest rates, we expect asset acquisitions in the sector to gain further traction. Cross border Reits would better positioned as they are able to tap into higher yielding assets outside of Singapore in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
The SGD currently at SGD1.3016/USD is near a 10year low and just 1.5% above the all time low of SGD1.2822/USD on 4th November 2010. We expect the Singapore dollar’s strength to persist throughout 2011 driven by MAS’s policy to combat inflation (CLSA forecast of 6.7% in 2011) through appreciating the SGD currency. Our economics team forecast the Singapore dollar to touch SGD$1.15/USD by end of the year and even lower at SGD$1.13/USD by end of 2012. This suggests that the SGD could potentially appreciate by a further 11.6% by end of the year.
The prospect of an appreciating currency could level the playing field for US based funds and generate a higher level of interests in the S-Reits sector among these US based funds. Currently, foreign institutional investors are subjected to a 10% withholding tax on distributions from the Reits. With the forecast of an 11.6% appreciation in the SGD/USD, the 10% withholding tax impact will essentially be negated in our view. Key beneficiaries among the SReits include purely Singapore focused Reits, CMT, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, Cache Logistic, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CCT, Suntec Reit and Frasers CentrePoint Trust.
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain our Overweight on the S-Reits. Further catalysts in the sector can come in the form of lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings in the low interest rate environment as well as DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions. The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation. In this space, we like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. Stocks which we have a positive recommendation includes ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Richard Russell’s Wisdom: Rich Man Poor Man
Richard Russell has been writing and publishing the Dow Theory Letters since 1958, and never has he missed an issue! It is the longest newsletter service continuously published by one person in the investment business. Richard is now 80 years old, and writes an extremely popular daily e-letter, full of commentary on the markets and whatever interests him that day. He gets up at 3 am or so and starts his daily (massive) reading and finishes the letter just after the markets close.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
Why REITs and Business Trust are not always good investments
valuebuddies.com is probably the place you want to be if you are into fundamental analysis. And the most interesting discussion that I was informed taking place is a discussion on REITs valuation.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
分享锦集：盯紧盈利莫放松冷眼
股票投资，其实有许多准则可以遵循的。问题是，准则太多了，要付诸于行动，难之又难。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Time is Money. Money is Time.
Time is Money
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT): Trading at an unwarranted discount
High quality assets, strong sponsor.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Suntec REIT: Downgrade to HOLD on valuation
Private placement to fund MBFC buy.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
分享锦集: 富向冷中求
冷门股是指交投不活跃及每天成交量低的股票。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
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