Suntec REIT: Outperforms again but faces headwinds to further DPU growth

Beats expectations, yet again. Suntec REIT reported 2Q distributable income of S$47.7m, up 2.9% QoQ. Gross revenue ex-One Raffles Quay slipped 0.6% QoQ. The results exceeded our expectations with outperformance both on the revenue and interest expense (average all-in cost of 2.8% in 2Q) fronts. Suntec will pay out 2.977 S cents for the quarter, up 2% QoQ. The manager proclaimed that it has delivered 18 straight quarters of DPU growth right since listing.

Occupancy falls at Suntec Office. Occupancy at Suntec City Office Towers fell from 96.3% as of March-end to 92.5% as of June-end as two tenants redelivered part of previously-leased space. Average achieved rents of S$8.24 per square foot per month are 45% below the peak S$15 psf pm guidance given for rents renewed a year ago. The manager did not care to express a view on rents beyond 2009 saying that the "crystal ball is murky". We tend to concur here - there are still a lot of unknowns about the shape and path of the overall economic recovery and how this flows down to the demand side of the office equation. If the market continues to be sickly, Suntec's 'under-rented' cushion will diminish as leases fixed close to the peak of the cycle expire.

Retail portfolio shows resiliency. Suntec's retail portfolio was more stable with 98.1% of Suntec City Mall occupied versus 98.6% three months ago. We note average passing rents slipped QoQ at Suntec City and Chijmes, but performed better than expected. Suntec is gearing up for the Circle Line opening next year and revealed plans to improve connectivity and create retail units linking the mall to Promenade MRT station. Expected capex spend is minimal. We have bumped up our estimates for Suntec's retail portfolio through adjustments on vacancy and rent decline assumptions as well as cap rates used.

Headwinds to future DPU growth. We continue to like the positioning and potential for Suntec's assets. We estimate that the current unit price implies a S$1200-1250 psf value for Suntec City. We see headwinds to future DPU growth however, especially stemming from the office assets. Secondary challenges to DPU stability include increased interest expense on refinanced funds and the enlarged unit base as deferred units kick in biannually. We have adjusted our earnings estimates to reflect our revised retail expectations and also to incorporate 1H results. 2H09F distributable income constitutes 45.5% of our full-year estimate. Our revised fair value estimate is S$1.00. Maintain HOLD.