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Saturday, September 20, 2008

After the Bailouts, Will This Be the Market Bottom?

Setting aside legitimate concerns about the ultimate cost and the debate over whether free market capitalism has a future, investors are wondering if an unprecedented level of government intervention has put a floor under the stock market.

In other words: Was that the bottom?

The early returns are good (for those long). After buying the rumor of a government plan to bail out banks on Thursday, traders bought the news of said plan on Friday -- and scrambled to cover shorts as the SEC's temporary ban went into immediate effect.

After jumping 400 points on Thursday, the Dow was up 347 points, or 3.2% in recent Friday afternoon trading, while the S&P was higher by 3.6% and the Nasdaq by 2.5%.

"It does feel -- and did feel yesterday -- like all the earmarks of a major bottom," are in place, says Tom Brown, chairman of Bankstocks.com.

Brown also runs Second Curve Capital, a hedge fund that only invests in financial stocks, has been net long for some time and was certainly enjoying the benefits of Friday's robust rally in bank and related stocks.

Whether the government's action prove successful long term remain to be seen.

In the near term, the Dow's significant rally off Thursday's intraday low of 10,459.44 "keeps the upper end of the trading range reachable," writes veteran technician Richard Suttmeier. "This is the 200-week simple moving average at 11,750."

But not everyone is embracing this rally.

"I have never woken up to bigger gains in my portfolio and they have never been less deserved," writes blogger and private equity investor Howard Lindzon.

Like many, myself included, Lindzon is concerned about the long-term implications of government interference in the financial markets on such a massive scale.

Finally, noting the Dow is on track for its biggest 2-day rally since 1929, Barry Ritholtz asks: "And how'd that work out for ya?"

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