小檔案_王章佑
年齡:31歲
學歷:澳洲蒙納許(Monash)大學經濟系畢業
經歷:2001~2005年專職投資人(散戶)、
2005年成立基金
現職:Vegasoul資產管理公司董事總經理
他,今年31歲,自比為「散戶中的散戶」,卻能打敗華爾街操盤手,以新台幣150萬元的本金起家,曾在3年內創造獲利17倍的成績,他是如何做到的?
他叫王章佑,香港人,沒讀過名校,沒待過任何一家券商,從台股開始踏入投資的世界。所有散戶犯的錯,他都曾經碰過,聽第四台投顧老師報明牌,賠掉積蓄;不同的是,賠了錢,他沒有退縮,也沒有借錢再拗,而是躲到圖書館,花6個月時間自修苦讀,練成一身投資的功夫。
再出發,他曾經連續14個月保持獲利,不但為客戶創造財富,估計也為他自己賺進近2億元資產,還開始吸納國際資金,成為全球頂尖操盤手。去年,金融海嘯重創全球投資市場,他操盤的基金照樣獲利65%,目前基金規模逼近新台幣30億元(9,000萬美元)。今年他的基金更被權威財經雜誌《亞洲投資人》(AsianInvestor)評選為年度最佳避險基金。
如何從一個聽明牌做股票的小散戶,翻身成為不斷獲利的投資高手?以下是這位頂尖操盤手首度曝光的獨家告白……
散戶真的能致富嗎?我要說:「可以!我就是最散戶的一個。」
我,沒讀過名校,也沒專業背景,更沒在華爾街的大券商工作過,嚴格來說,根本沒在金融機構上過一天班。我是小散戶起家,所有散戶的每一步,我都走過。當然,這指的是散戶賠錢、犯錯的經驗。
聽第四台投顧老師報明牌,賠掉積蓄
10年前,我記得很清楚,我來台灣找親戚,沒想到第1天就遇上921大地震(編按:1999年9月21日發生),本來想到處玩,結果什麼事都不用做了,到處斷水斷電。一個禮拜後,台股恢復交易,我看著台股在地震後第1天大跌,我就想:「怎麼全部跌停板?」這情況誘發了我對股票的研究興趣,也是我第1次接觸台股。
2001年,我從澳洲大學畢業,又到台灣旅行,住在台北縣汐止的親戚家,沒事做,大家以為我大學念資訊工程,對科技產業應該很熟,我這個做股票的親戚,就跟我討論起當時很熱門的科技股,我就想試著來買買看台股吧。買什麼股?當時就看第四台投顧老師啊!老師叫買什麼,我就買什麼啊(音調拉高)!沒想到很快的,我就把當學生時所存的港幣幾萬元賠掉了。
錢賠光了,沒辦法啊!可是,這個亂七八糟買股的經驗,讓我迷上了投資。
賠錢,當然不爽,可是我的個性是,一旦迷上一件事情,就一定要追根究柢研究清楚。回到香港,我還是每天關心台灣股市,我真的好想了解:「到底這些價格漲漲跌跌,是怎麼運作的?」可是,沒人可問,想到從小就愛看書,就去找些書來看吧,看看能不能找到答案。
在圖書館窩半年,什麼財經書都看
這一看書,就迷上了,我在圖書館整整窩了半年,每天不停的看各種財經書,什麼都看,我記得第1本看的是《金融怪傑》(Market Wizards),這本書對我的啟發很大。我那半年,看了好幾百本書,看到有一天,我實在看不下去了,決定開始實際下場投資。
散戶該怎麼開始學投資?當然,很多人不一定是從自學或看書開始,不過,因為我自己下過工夫,我想告訴大家:「學投資,要先了解怎麼降低投資風險。」
常聽到有人炫耀:「我今年投資獲利100%!」這沒什麼了不起,因為我們要回頭看看,去年他是不是賠了50%?或者幾年來,他只有今年賺錢?我常告訴朋友,你想短期內賺很多的return(報酬),如果你夠幸運,那很容易,可是如果你想持續長期的獲利,必須要降低風險,這才是最困難的部分。
瞬間賺很多錢,你可能同時承擔很大的風險,這不是我的投資邏輯。雖然,我這幾年成立了基金,可運用的投資金額也大了很多,但是,我仍堅持「賺夏普值」這個觀念,8年來沒變過。
投資先想風險,設定自己的「痛苦界線」
所以,散戶學投資,第1件事就是要先想風險。什麼是風險?我認為,就是每個人都該設定自己的「投資痛苦界線」,在下場前,你要先想兩件事情:
1.到底賠多少錢,是你能承受的範圍?
2.你能承受多少次的連續虧損,而不會完全慌了手腳?
這兩件事情很重要,因為有些人說,他可以承受30%的虧損。假設你所有資產是100萬元,全部砸下去投資,30%就是虧30萬元,可是你根本就是一個賠了幾萬塊就會受不了的人,或者這100萬元下個月要拿去繳房子頭期款,那麼,雖然你幻想自己能承受高風險,但實際上,你根本沒法承受。解決方法有兩個:1.根本不該拿這麼多錢去投資,2.降低你的風險承擔標準。
再來,你要想想,自己心理上,可以承受連續幾次虧損後,還能「正常」的過生活或是繼續投資,不會慌了手腳,做出不理智的事情。很多時候,投資人剛開始下場投資,就遇到市場大跌,或者買什麼、賠什麼,這個時候你要想想,如果連續10次、20次或30次交易都賠錢,你會不會因此就放棄,直接從市場退出?
「投資痛苦界線」是個變動的概念,剛開始,你把這界線設得窄一點(指剛開始設得比較嚴格),不要讓自己一開始投資,就遇到非常大的挫折,例如,你把自己的停損點設小一點,沒賠太多錢,得失心就不會這麼重,就會有勇氣,繼續往下走。慢慢的,隨著投資經驗增加,再把這個界線放寬一點,承擔多一點點的風險,也會相對拉高獲利空間,慢慢的就會開始累積投資獲利。
錢少是散戶最大優勢,操作更靈活
散戶投資,不要一直老想著:「唉唷,我錢好少!根本比不過人家資金雄厚。」或者「大戶都有內線消息,我們怎麼可能知道?」
我從小散戶起家,卻認為錢少,才是散戶最大的優勢。
為什麼呢?你要想想,如果你手上只有少量的錢,買個幾檔股票,賺到了停利點,就出場,看到了買點再進場,這聽起來好像很容易。可是對資金龐大的大戶,卻不是這樣啊,大戶可能手上有上億元的資金,但一來,很難在市場上,一次買到大量金額的股票;二來,想賣的時候,這麼大量的持股,哪有可能一次賣得掉?要透過其他的方式處理,這很不靈活。
因此,凡事要先想自己的優勢在哪?然後,設法利用優勢。如果一直不去想這個事情,學投資這件事情,就難了。
大家都以為,要從投資市場上賺錢,得靠複雜的投資策略,還有靈通的訊息,才能成事,我卻不認為。我覺得,投資就是要「簡單」。
我覺得,「趨勢投資」就是最簡單的概念。順勢投資,例如股票破200日新高,代表長期多頭趨勢建立了,就去追強勢股,我甚至研究過,一檔股票破了歷史新高,進場去買,抱個幾年,賺錢的機率不小。
3個觀念順著市場走,何必要內線?
這就是讓市場告訴你怎麼投資(看價格來找買賣點),而不是要你去判斷市場。散戶就可以這樣做啊,為什麼需要什麼內線消息!
不過,或許有人會問:「這不是違反投資不能追高的原則嗎?」我在這邊,提供幾個跟一般投資觀念不一樣的想法。
1.追高不一定錯
剛開始,我也怕追高。因為投資學教我們要「買低賣高」,而不是「買高賣低」嘛。不過,我看了《金融怪傑》那本書,裡面談到一個相當知名的交易員理查‧丹尼斯(Richard Dennis)曾測試過,如果你在一個向上趨勢很明確的時候,也就是市場往上走、動能很強的時候買進,還是會有繼續賺錢的空間。這個我自己測試過,是沒錯的。
可是,我要強調,不是任何時候都適用追高這個策略,什麼時候不能追高?當市場波動很大的時候(編按:指漲跌很頻繁交錯出現),不要追高,因為沒有一個明顯的走勢出來,這樣的策略就不work(沒有效)。
2.停損不一定對
「停損」這件事一定要做,可是你要想想,如果交易一直賠錢,都在停損出場,那麼累積起來,整個報酬率都是負的,怎麼會這樣呢?
我前面說過,除了你要設定你的「投資痛苦界線」,看看自己能承受多少次的連續虧損,如果接近了痛苦界線,還是一直沒法突破(賺錢)的話,我認為根本應該停下來(例如先空手不要投資),想想自己的投資策略是不是需要調整,或者再去多翻些相關書籍資料,甚至跟人討論。
3.新聞事件頻繁出現的時候,最好保持空手
我知道不少人專門會在大新聞事件發生的時候,去賭市場的反應,可是,這8年來,我自己的交易規則是,如果對news driven(新聞事件影響市場)這個判斷不太確定的話,我寧可不交易,因為這根本是「賭博」。就像美國聯準會(Fed)講話的時候,或者Fed主席到國會聽證的時候,我就會在之前,把部位都清掉。
我現在可以這樣侃侃而談我的投資想法,可是,這一路走來,我遇過挫折,也賠過錢,而且我賠錢,真的會超不爽的。
我開始積極在市場交易,是在2001年。那年底,因為科技泡沫導致股市崩盤的陰影慢慢近尾聲,之後股市從谷底開始反彈,我一開始很幸運,搭上這波行情,所以連續好幾個月,我都一直賺錢。
我從台股開始交易,一開始以指數為主,後來,交易擴大到香港、日本等亞洲股市,再跨至美國及歐洲。因為資金部位愈來愈大,我沒法有效管理,所以,在2005年成立基金,從2002年6月至2005年5月的36個月交易時間裡,我只有7個月報酬率是負的,最慘的1個月是-9.14%。
投資熱錢湧進,卻突然小滑一跤
因為績效很不錯,2007年初,突然有不少投資人的資金瘋狂湧進我的基金。但是,我的基金居然在2007年3月開始,出現連續3個月的虧損,雖然合計虧損幅度不到7%,可是,這是我操盤以來從沒遇過的狀況,而且還是一堆投資人的錢剛進來,就發生這樣的困境。
當時,我真的很焦慮,因為我一直以來的紀錄太好了,沒想到這些人一進來,就開始賠錢。我不但壓力很大,還向他們道歉。雖然,後來我花了約5個月,就把之前虧的全部賺回來,但是,就在我把錢賺回來後,我決定把投資人的錢,先全部還給他們。那時投資人好不願意啊,他們想繼續給我操盤,可是我堅持退錢。
有些人質疑,錢都賺回來了,幹嘛要這樣?我的想法是,我會發生以前沒有的連續虧損情況,代表我的投資策略需要修正,我決定花幾個月時間,做些研究,可是這段研究期,我總不能把這些投資人的錢當「白老鼠」,拿來實驗證明我的研究吧。
我想每個成功的投資人,都有自己的一套策略,我也曾經讀過你們台灣很有名的一個期貨天王張松允的書,我很佩服他的績效,不過,我要強調,每個人有適合自己的一套贏的策略,我比較在乎的是連續獲利、降低賠錢機率。
賠錢不會焦慮?那些人腦子有問題!
到現在,我大概在全球交易100多個不同股票指數或者商品市場,有時一進場,40至50條線(編按:指投資標的)都賠錢。如果虧損超過我們預期,我們也可能會暫停,不再加碼或者先都不動作,冷靜下來,想一下有沒有需要調整的地方。
你說,我賠錢的時候會不會焦慮?當然會啊!我覺得很多人說他們投資的時候都很冷靜,我想那些人腦子有問題吧!是人,就不可能不panic(恐慌),你根本無法違反人性,你只能控制人性,不可能叫自己完全不焦慮,只能盡量做到避免自己不理智。花時間來控制情緒,根本有點浪費時間,因為,賠錢就是不爽,這是人性。
如何能避免不理智?就是紀律投資,是用一些人為(請朋友提醒)或非人為的方法(例如透過電腦系統投資,或者銀行設定停利停損等等),想辦法強迫自己要做紀律投資。
邊投資、邊修正,才能找出賺錢方法
回顧這8年的操作歷程,我除了投資經驗累積多了點,自己的投資痛苦界線也寬了些。例如,前陣子北韓試射飛彈那天(5月26日),我在家裡睡覺,大約下午2點,我的團隊成員打電話給我說,光一個上午,帳上就虧了200萬美元(約合新台幣6,600萬元),我問了一下原因,射飛彈,這沒辦法控制,我掛了電話,繼續睡了兩個小時。
因為,這還在我的投資痛苦界線內,所以我沒慌,而且隨後市場又漲回來了。所以,我一直在強調,設好自己能承受波動的標準,在這個標準內,就放心的去交易,才能賺錢;超過了界線,可能就要想辦法縮小虧損,以免之後做出什麼不理智的事情。例如,很多人可能就放棄,全部賣光,或者,再亂買一通,只想翻本。
到現在,我只能說,從一個小散戶起家,我還有很多要學習。每一年,我都會把當年啟蒙的財經書《金融怪傑》翻個一、兩次,書都快被我翻爛了,我建議投資人,選幾本自己能吸收的書,邊念、邊做(下場投資),讀個10次、20次都可以。
最重要的是,要找出最適合自己的投資方法,你不能完全百分之百當個follower(跟隨者),你要了解,自己到底是個膽小鬼?或是個很能承擔風險的人?邊投資,邊修正,才能找出賺錢的方法。
我覺得初入門的投資人,不要放太多的重心一直在想:「我怎麼樣會賺錢?怎麼樣才能賺大錢?」很多投資人連最基本的資金管理、風險控制都沒想過,研究再多技術線型都沒用,先用小錢去試試看投資是怎麼回事,了解自己比較重要。
23歲至31歲這8年來,我把人生最精華的時間都給了投資市場,之前有陣子頭髮都快掉光了(哈哈哈)!一般投資人或許不必像我這樣,照著我前面說的一些概念,還是能賺到錢。我只是想強調,只要下工夫,散戶真的能致富,最重要的是對市場永遠要保持Passion(熱情)。我想,如果有一天,我覺得對市場的熱情消退的時候,可能就要退休了,可是到目前,我還無法想像對市場會有失去熱情的一天。
對台股5至10年很有信心,金價還會飆
對於台股的未來,我很正面。不過,我覺得全球最差的狀況應該還沒過,你想,這是百年來最嚴重的經濟危機,整個金融體系都差點倒了,你覺得這是1年內可以解決的事情嗎?我認為,台股甚至美國股市,未來半年還是會處在盤整的格局,短期內,台灣很難漲破1萬點,但是要跌破3,000點的可能性也很低。
台灣跟中國,總有一天經濟聯繫會愈來愈緊密,我覺得,中國的經濟好,台灣也會跟著好,我對台灣股市未來5至10年都滿有信心的。
除了股市,我還看好原物料,尤其是黃金,我自己認為黃金會漲到3,000美元,尤其在目前這個沒有黃金支撐貨幣的時代,不要把錢全部都放在銀行,我自己就買了一些金條,未來也考慮買些原物料基金,因為,未來20年,原物料價格一定會比現在高。
*採訪後記:不請老外當員工,跟華爾街拚了!
採訪中途,陪王章佑走到戶外,站在這棟中環相當知名的金融大樓「中環大樓」前,他往上看,面對大樓裡多家基金公司,他露出年輕操盤手的微微殺氣說,位在幾樓幾號的哪家公司,「他們基金績效根本沒太好,資產規模卻是我的幾倍,我要超越它!」
這股好勝心,不只用在基金績效挑戰上,更擴大到民族意識。王章佑公司15個員工全部都是香港或亞洲人,不像很多避險基金會重金邀請金髮老外來坐鎮撐場。「我的原則是,不、請、老、外,我要打造純亞洲的一流基金團隊,跟華爾街拚了!」講起這句話的時候,他的語調頗為激動。
沒有到華爾街鍍過金、沒有念長春藤知名大學,現在看來雖然更能證明他靠苦學的成就,不過,他曾在管理基金的路上,遭到客戶質疑「沒在哪家、哪家券商上過班?」這點也許曾經對他造成或多或少的心理傷害,但也成為激勵他的最大動力。我記得他說:「我Beat(打敗)他們(指華爾街操盤人)很多很厲害的人,這是一個很大的成就感。」可以看出他想贏的決心。
為了提高目標,聽聞他管理員工相當嚴厲,我問他,會不會大罵同事?他板起臉:「我不是請大家來當happy family(快樂家庭)的,賠大錢的話,我就準備睡街上了。」
操盤8年來,去年他第1次休假,雖然犧牲很多,還笑說經常被女友fire掉,即使不斷說被自己操得好慘,每次卻馬上立刻接著說:「這一切都值得。」
How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives. 自强不息 勤以静心,俭以养德 天地不仁, 強者生存
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Saturday, December 3, 2011
The Flaws Of Using Mass Sentiment To Be Contrarian
The basis of contrarian investment is entirely sound. When everyone is buying like mad, prices are too high, so it is in fact best to sell then, and vice versa. There is a huge amount of literature on the dangers of going with the herd, and why the right time to buy is when there is "blood in the streets" and so on. However, like most allegedly sure-fire methods in the investment industry, this one has its flaws too. (For more, see Averaging Down: Good Idea Or Big Mistake?)
The Essence of Contrarian Investing
The underlying idea is that the majority of market participants are generally wrong. The "masses" get carried away in booms and then panic at the first sign of trouble. As a result, they buy and sell at the worst possible times. The appealing logic is therefore that by simply doing the opposite of the masses, one can buy and sell at the right time.
The Methodology
According to German expert Uwe Lang (2009), enthusiastic contrarians regularly note what most market letters recommend. The stronger and more frequent the recommendations to buy, the more likely the contrarians are to sell, and vice versa. The underlying logic is that market letters reflect prevailing and dominant market sentiment, which is already factored into current prices. So the best thing to do is the opposite of what the letters recommend.
The Flaws and the Problems
Uwe Lang points out that in the 1980s, this approach was popular and people really believed in it. In the meantime, however, it is known that consistent success on this basis is unlikely.
A fundamental problem is that if all market letters use this approach, they would actually have to do the opposite of what they themselves had recommended. This would lead to a vicious circle of chaos and confusion. Furthermore, such a situation is in fact a classic fallacy of composition, meaning in this case, that if one market letter is contrarian, that will work, but if most or all are, the process collapses. And in very real terms, how does one know when the fallacy starts to work, and how does one ever know how many brokers are playing this contrarian game?
When and Why Contrarian Logic Failed
For at least 10 years, says Lang, "mass sentiment" has no longer delivered any reliable signals. For example, on August 14, 1998, when the biggest losses from the Asian/Russian crisis were about to occur, very few German market letters were optimistic. The dominant pessimism would have suggested it was a great time to buy. But in fact, there was a downswing in the offering.
The same thing prevailed in March 2000 when the market letters and mass sentiment were again very negative. The associated contrarian hopes of a market recovery were dashed, however, when the real bears out there squeezed the bulls very decisively out of the financial arena.
To make things even more complicated, Lang doubts that the market letters and market sentiment were really so pessimistic in March 2000. And this is a crucial point - how does one determine whether a market letter is actually pessimistic or optimistic? Most such letters are wary of making blanket statements and tend to balance pros at least partly with cons, or the other way round.
In mid-2007, the market letters proclaimed that stock markets could not fall further, precisely because too many investors were nervous and banking on the bears. In reality, however, a stock market boom always ends in a phase of euphoria, and that was lacking in 2007. So, again, the market sentiment was misleading.
At the end of 2007, the process repeated, with considerable pessimism prevailing in August. According to the contrarian view, therefore, prices should have risen, but the highs of July were not achieved again by the end of the year. In 2008, the financial crisis struck and chaos ensued, so that there were was also no particularly useful message for the contrarians.
The Implications
The existence of excessively euphoric markets, which are best avoided, and deep despair, which is a great time to buy, is not in question. But these tend to be exceptional situations in which contrarian approaches really do work well. On the other hand, the more routine cyclical ups and downs are not reliably reflected in market sentiment as expressed in market letters.
Market sentiment generally still provides useful input to investment decisions, but it is not a panacea that leads to the proverbial pot of gold. The fundamental lesson to be learned, says Uwe Lang, is that no "psycho instrument" is a really reliable stock market indicator.
Market psychology remains an important element in managing investments. But trying to measure the psychology on an ongoing basis, and using it in isolation to make fundamental trend predictions, is a fool's paradise. The famous "state of the market" does indeed exist and one can determine it with reasonable accuracy, but not with mass psychology alone. (Knowing what the market is thinking is the best way to determine what it will do next. For more, see Gauging Major Turns With Psychology.)
Conclusions
Despite the flaws, a degree of contrarianism is important. Situations where markets are at all-time highs are very risky and so too are the converse. Buying into euphoric markets is truly ill-advised, and so too is selling out in situations of panic when prices are plummeting.
However, particularly at in-between times, mass psychology is not a terribly good indicator of where stock markets are heading. Excessive reliance on the approach is therefore dangerous. One is going too far in regularly quantifying mass sentiment as an exclusive basis for investment strategies.
The Essence of Contrarian Investing
The underlying idea is that the majority of market participants are generally wrong. The "masses" get carried away in booms and then panic at the first sign of trouble. As a result, they buy and sell at the worst possible times. The appealing logic is therefore that by simply doing the opposite of the masses, one can buy and sell at the right time.
The Methodology
According to German expert Uwe Lang (2009), enthusiastic contrarians regularly note what most market letters recommend. The stronger and more frequent the recommendations to buy, the more likely the contrarians are to sell, and vice versa. The underlying logic is that market letters reflect prevailing and dominant market sentiment, which is already factored into current prices. So the best thing to do is the opposite of what the letters recommend.
The Flaws and the Problems
Uwe Lang points out that in the 1980s, this approach was popular and people really believed in it. In the meantime, however, it is known that consistent success on this basis is unlikely.
A fundamental problem is that if all market letters use this approach, they would actually have to do the opposite of what they themselves had recommended. This would lead to a vicious circle of chaos and confusion. Furthermore, such a situation is in fact a classic fallacy of composition, meaning in this case, that if one market letter is contrarian, that will work, but if most or all are, the process collapses. And in very real terms, how does one know when the fallacy starts to work, and how does one ever know how many brokers are playing this contrarian game?
When and Why Contrarian Logic Failed
For at least 10 years, says Lang, "mass sentiment" has no longer delivered any reliable signals. For example, on August 14, 1998, when the biggest losses from the Asian/Russian crisis were about to occur, very few German market letters were optimistic. The dominant pessimism would have suggested it was a great time to buy. But in fact, there was a downswing in the offering.
The same thing prevailed in March 2000 when the market letters and mass sentiment were again very negative. The associated contrarian hopes of a market recovery were dashed, however, when the real bears out there squeezed the bulls very decisively out of the financial arena.
To make things even more complicated, Lang doubts that the market letters and market sentiment were really so pessimistic in March 2000. And this is a crucial point - how does one determine whether a market letter is actually pessimistic or optimistic? Most such letters are wary of making blanket statements and tend to balance pros at least partly with cons, or the other way round.
In mid-2007, the market letters proclaimed that stock markets could not fall further, precisely because too many investors were nervous and banking on the bears. In reality, however, a stock market boom always ends in a phase of euphoria, and that was lacking in 2007. So, again, the market sentiment was misleading.
At the end of 2007, the process repeated, with considerable pessimism prevailing in August. According to the contrarian view, therefore, prices should have risen, but the highs of July were not achieved again by the end of the year. In 2008, the financial crisis struck and chaos ensued, so that there were was also no particularly useful message for the contrarians.
The Implications
The existence of excessively euphoric markets, which are best avoided, and deep despair, which is a great time to buy, is not in question. But these tend to be exceptional situations in which contrarian approaches really do work well. On the other hand, the more routine cyclical ups and downs are not reliably reflected in market sentiment as expressed in market letters.
Market sentiment generally still provides useful input to investment decisions, but it is not a panacea that leads to the proverbial pot of gold. The fundamental lesson to be learned, says Uwe Lang, is that no "psycho instrument" is a really reliable stock market indicator.
Market psychology remains an important element in managing investments. But trying to measure the psychology on an ongoing basis, and using it in isolation to make fundamental trend predictions, is a fool's paradise. The famous "state of the market" does indeed exist and one can determine it with reasonable accuracy, but not with mass psychology alone. (Knowing what the market is thinking is the best way to determine what it will do next. For more, see Gauging Major Turns With Psychology.)
Conclusions
Despite the flaws, a degree of contrarianism is important. Situations where markets are at all-time highs are very risky and so too are the converse. Buying into euphoric markets is truly ill-advised, and so too is selling out in situations of panic when prices are plummeting.
However, particularly at in-between times, mass psychology is not a terribly good indicator of where stock markets are heading. Excessive reliance on the approach is therefore dangerous. One is going too far in regularly quantifying mass sentiment as an exclusive basis for investment strategies.
科斯托蘭尼大師畢生心法VS投資精華
這是一個恐慌恐懼與希望雜陳的年代,需要一個不變的指引。在20世紀最偉大的投機家科斯托蘭尼心中「人心+資金」決定所有市場的起落;重拾科老智慧,小散戶也能成自由支配的貴族。
一、決定漲跌的,不是景氣或公司好壞。
二、第一課:買好公司股票就賺多,錯!
三、 從市場賺來的錢,只是借來的,下一次或許就付得高昂利息償還回去;但無論成功或失敗,都必須從中學到經驗,如果失敗永遠記取教訓。
四、第二課:經濟成長絕對有利股市,錯!
五、 一家公司的上漲與下跌,不是由該企業的體質決定,而是取決於該公司股票在市場的供需狀況,換句話說每日成交數量張數大不大。
六、第三課:分析股票好壞最重要,錯!
七、 要成為一個固執投資人,必須有「想法和金錢」,以及最重要「耐心和運氣」。
八、 當某家公司的股票,被越來越多的猶豫投資人持有,這家公司再好,最終股票也會下跌。
九、忘掉數據、線圖、戒掉明牌。
十、 雞蛋理論:最低點買入股票>初升段A1修正階段成交量小股票持有人少>主升段A2相隨階段成交量和股票持有人增加>末升段A3過熱階段成交量異常-賣出股票>初跌段B1修正階段成交量小持有人逐漸少>主跌段B2相隨階段成交量增加持有人減少>末跌段B3過熱階段持有人最低點。
十一、 股票買賣決定點:魚頭魚尾留給別人吃,留給別人賺。
十二、 買賣法則:低價股分批買,高價股分批賣。
十三、 自己做功課隸屬長線:會買最低點切入買。不是自己做功課隸屬短線:會賣最高點切入賣。
一、決定漲跌的,不是景氣或公司好壞。
二、第一課:買好公司股票就賺多,錯!
三、 從市場賺來的錢,只是借來的,下一次或許就付得高昂利息償還回去;但無論成功或失敗,都必須從中學到經驗,如果失敗永遠記取教訓。
四、第二課:經濟成長絕對有利股市,錯!
五、 一家公司的上漲與下跌,不是由該企業的體質決定,而是取決於該公司股票在市場的供需狀況,換句話說每日成交數量張數大不大。
六、第三課:分析股票好壞最重要,錯!
七、 要成為一個固執投資人,必須有「想法和金錢」,以及最重要「耐心和運氣」。
八、 當某家公司的股票,被越來越多的猶豫投資人持有,這家公司再好,最終股票也會下跌。
九、忘掉數據、線圖、戒掉明牌。
十、 雞蛋理論:最低點買入股票>初升段A1修正階段成交量小股票持有人少>主升段A2相隨階段成交量和股票持有人增加>末升段A3過熱階段成交量異常-賣出股票>初跌段B1修正階段成交量小持有人逐漸少>主跌段B2相隨階段成交量增加持有人減少>末跌段B3過熱階段持有人最低點。
十一、 股票買賣決定點:魚頭魚尾留給別人吃,留給別人賺。
十二、 買賣法則:低價股分批買,高價股分批賣。
十三、 自己做功課隸屬長線:會買最低點切入買。不是自己做功課隸屬短線:會賣最高點切入賣。
安德烈 科斯托蘭尼(Andre Kostolany)
(一) 股市
股市與經濟:
男子帶著狗在街上散步,狗兒先跑到前面,再回到男人身邊。接著又跑到前面,看到自己跑得太遠,又再折回來。反反覆覆,最後男子和狗同時抵達終點,男子走了一公里,而狗兄跑前跑後地走了四公里。
男人就是經濟,狗則是股票市場。然而,長期來看,證券市場無法脫離經濟。
市場的邏輯:
證券市場有自己的邏輯,和普通消費者的邏輯沒有什麼關係。
股票價格:
股價永遠不會和企業的實際價值相等,總是或高或低於合理值。
資訊:
凡是證券交易所裡人盡皆知的事,不會令我激動。在讀報紙的過程中,可以發現對我來說重要的消息,通常是隱藏在字裡行間的訊息。
測底:
在出現不利消息時,市場並沒有下跌,是行情已接近最低點的徵兆。
當最後的樂觀者變成悲觀者,當傳媒氣氛變得非常負面時,便是市況見底的跡象。
市場升跌:
暴漲和崩盤是分不開的搭檔。
股票走勢:
貨幣供應 + 心理 = 趨勢
恐慌性拋售:
就像在電影院裡,有人喊著火了,於是所有人衝向唯一的逃生門。結果是雖然連一根火柴也沒有點著,卻出現了傷亡人士。
投資人最壞的特質:
固執和猶疑不決
投資人最好的特質:
直覺和靈活性。直覺是下意識的邏輯和想像力,而投資人出錯時必須立即修正。
買賣的原因:
決定是否出售某隻股票跟買進價格沒有關係,而是取決於未來的發展。
內幕消息:
股市上的「消息靈通」經常是「毁滅」的代名詞。
耐性:
一個沒有耐力的投機者雖然有理,但永遠為之太晚。
投機者:
有遠見的戰略家,制定周密的計劃和策略,根據每天發生的事件進行調整。投機者總有一個想法,這亦是投機者和證券玩家的分別。
投資者:
市場中的長跑者
證券玩家:
市場中的賭徒
逆向操作:
勇於與眾不同,大家必須訓練有素、冷靜,有時甚至必須玩世不恭。因此在證券市場內,只有少數人能夠投機成功,所以投資人必須勇敢、全力以赴,明智,甚至表現得自負一些。對自己說: 「我知道,其他人都是傻瓜」
不忘彈性:
但如果出現根本性變化,例如戰爭、重大的政治和經濟決策等無法預料的事件時,就必須馬上考慮後果,必要時還要放棄昨天還十分喜歡(但今天變得很貴)的股票。
技術分析:
圖表可能賺錢,但肯定賠錢
(二) 經濟/匯率
通漲:
輕度通貨膨脹根本不會危害經濟。寧要5%通漲率,也不要5%的失業率。
通縮:
通縮時,貨幣供應持續短缺,消費者什麼也不想買,企業也不投資。在這情況下,沒有消費和投資,亦妨礙經濟發展。
金本位:
金本位制度猶如一條雙人被,棉被下的兩個人都試圖把被子拉向自己這一邊。嚴守金本位制阻礙貨幣供應的靈活性,隨之而來是失業、危機和破產。
總有一些政治家和經濟學者,每當外匯激烈波動時,總要求回到金本位制度。
美元:
在弱小與高強的衝突中,大多數人總是同情弱小。
全世界的人總是抱怨美國的貿易逆差,儘管多年來美國一直是整個世界經濟的「母乳」。
美國人將大部份的積蓄投入巨額的人壽保險和股票投資。
匯率:
一個國家的經濟實力和財政管理制度,才是構成貨幣強弱的主因。
資本主義vs社會主義:
資本主義等同一塊切得不平均的大蛋糕,而社會主義則是一塊切得大小均等的小蛋糕。結果是大小均等的小蛋糕塊,比大蛋糕上最小塊的蛋糕,還要小很多。
股市與經濟:
男子帶著狗在街上散步,狗兒先跑到前面,再回到男人身邊。接著又跑到前面,看到自己跑得太遠,又再折回來。反反覆覆,最後男子和狗同時抵達終點,男子走了一公里,而狗兄跑前跑後地走了四公里。
男人就是經濟,狗則是股票市場。然而,長期來看,證券市場無法脫離經濟。
市場的邏輯:
證券市場有自己的邏輯,和普通消費者的邏輯沒有什麼關係。
股票價格:
股價永遠不會和企業的實際價值相等,總是或高或低於合理值。
資訊:
凡是證券交易所裡人盡皆知的事,不會令我激動。在讀報紙的過程中,可以發現對我來說重要的消息,通常是隱藏在字裡行間的訊息。
測底:
在出現不利消息時,市場並沒有下跌,是行情已接近最低點的徵兆。
當最後的樂觀者變成悲觀者,當傳媒氣氛變得非常負面時,便是市況見底的跡象。
市場升跌:
暴漲和崩盤是分不開的搭檔。
股票走勢:
貨幣供應 + 心理 = 趨勢
恐慌性拋售:
就像在電影院裡,有人喊著火了,於是所有人衝向唯一的逃生門。結果是雖然連一根火柴也沒有點著,卻出現了傷亡人士。
投資人最壞的特質:
固執和猶疑不決
投資人最好的特質:
直覺和靈活性。直覺是下意識的邏輯和想像力,而投資人出錯時必須立即修正。
買賣的原因:
決定是否出售某隻股票跟買進價格沒有關係,而是取決於未來的發展。
內幕消息:
股市上的「消息靈通」經常是「毁滅」的代名詞。
耐性:
一個沒有耐力的投機者雖然有理,但永遠為之太晚。
投機者:
有遠見的戰略家,制定周密的計劃和策略,根據每天發生的事件進行調整。投機者總有一個想法,這亦是投機者和證券玩家的分別。
投資者:
市場中的長跑者
證券玩家:
市場中的賭徒
逆向操作:
勇於與眾不同,大家必須訓練有素、冷靜,有時甚至必須玩世不恭。因此在證券市場內,只有少數人能夠投機成功,所以投資人必須勇敢、全力以赴,明智,甚至表現得自負一些。對自己說: 「我知道,其他人都是傻瓜」
不忘彈性:
但如果出現根本性變化,例如戰爭、重大的政治和經濟決策等無法預料的事件時,就必須馬上考慮後果,必要時還要放棄昨天還十分喜歡(但今天變得很貴)的股票。
技術分析:
圖表可能賺錢,但肯定賠錢
(二) 經濟/匯率
通漲:
輕度通貨膨脹根本不會危害經濟。寧要5%通漲率,也不要5%的失業率。
通縮:
通縮時,貨幣供應持續短缺,消費者什麼也不想買,企業也不投資。在這情況下,沒有消費和投資,亦妨礙經濟發展。
金本位:
金本位制度猶如一條雙人被,棉被下的兩個人都試圖把被子拉向自己這一邊。嚴守金本位制阻礙貨幣供應的靈活性,隨之而來是失業、危機和破產。
總有一些政治家和經濟學者,每當外匯激烈波動時,總要求回到金本位制度。
美元:
在弱小與高強的衝突中,大多數人總是同情弱小。
全世界的人總是抱怨美國的貿易逆差,儘管多年來美國一直是整個世界經濟的「母乳」。
美國人將大部份的積蓄投入巨額的人壽保險和股票投資。
匯率:
一個國家的經濟實力和財政管理制度,才是構成貨幣強弱的主因。
資本主義vs社會主義:
資本主義等同一塊切得不平均的大蛋糕,而社會主義則是一塊切得大小均等的小蛋糕。結果是大小均等的小蛋糕塊,比大蛋糕上最小塊的蛋糕,還要小很多。
Friday, December 2, 2011
Conquering the Herd Mentality
In reading Nietzsche's "Beyond Good and Evil", a childhood memory recently surfaced in which, as an eight-year old boy, I was allowed to attend a Baptist Revival with some neighbors who were friends of my parents.
I distinctly remember the intense fear that welled up in my heart as I watched beads of sweat form on the brow of the preacher who delivered his frightening ultimatum to the congregation with all the Puritan flair of a Jonathan Edwards hellfire sermon. Upon deliverance of his message, the exhausted preacher beseeched the unsaved souls of the congregation to walk the aisle and let Jesus deliver them from an eternity of suffering. Being almost frightened to tears at the prospect of eternal flames licking at my flesh, I immediately sprang from my pew and kneeled at the altar to beg Jesus to deliver me from this unthinkable damnation.
After the services were complete and the last refrain of "I Come" was played on the organ, I was a superstar as the youngest member of the congregation to have walked the aisle. I was bombarded by hugs and kisses of acceptance, and my shirt was stained from the tears of pious old women. I was no longer just a little dogie. Fear had mothered this little calf into the mentality and morality of "the herd". I was too young, at the time, to realize that the stage had been set.
My mother could not have been happier with the news that the neighbors brought them about my brave trek to salvation, but my father accepted the news with indifference as he aimlessly chewed his cud in the corner of the living room. My mother and the neighbors, however, were flitting about in anxious anticipation of my growing three additional stomachs. I did not discover Nietzsche until much later in life, but thanks to ideas that reflect some of his philosophical tenets, I was able to spit out my cud and open my mind to new possibilities.
There is no doubt that the members of my boyhood revival accepted God as absolute truth and perfection. The idea of an ultimate truth echoes throughout the history of philosophy, from Plato's forms to the Christian ideal of God and Heaven. No matter what the tradition, the idea of ultimate truth had not been questioned...until Nietzsche.
Nietzsche asks for the first time, "From where did our desire for truth come?" Up to now, every philosophical tradition was born on the notion of a desire to believe in a realm where there is not chaos, but order; not constant change, but immutability. Nietzsche declares that these are imaginary realms and that these ideas are not perceptions of something that really exists, but desperate attempts to invent a place where we know for certain that all our beliefs are true.
Why have we done this?
He poses the theory that maybe the appearance or the idea of absolute knowledge or truth is, itself, the illusion-not our imperfect perception of temporal knowledge. What if the unstable is actually the foundation of the stable? Nietzsche wants us to go back to the starting gate and reappraise our assumptions and, at the very least, ask:
"Where did they come from?"
Nietzsche offers his own theory about where our biased thinking originated. He theorizes that there are two types of morality: Master morality and Slave morality.
He further asserts that our desire for ultimate truth was inspired by the Slave morality. People of the Master morality are not truth-seekers. They derive meaning from life through worldly things. The Master morality is composed of conquering, aggressive people who create their own values. Alexander the Great would be an example of the Master morality. He conquered the entire world, that was known at the time, and be-damned to anyone who got in his way.
The Slave morality, on the other hand, derives meaning from life by denying worldly things. Nietzsche believes that the Slave morality arose because slaves could not enjoy the spoils of the Master morality, so they invented God and a realm of ultimate truth in order to give their lives meaning. People of the Slave morality believe that by believing that the world we live in is an illusion, the "true" realm will be their ultimate reward. Nietzsche believed that the problem in later thinking was that society had inherited the Slave morality. Where, then, does Nietzsche want to lead us?
A point to be considered is that if Nietzsche's ideal of the Master morality is accepted, we also have to accept exploitation as a necessary means of attaining it. Slave morality teaches us that exploitation is evil, but Nietzsche wants us to understand that exploitation is imperative for life, so we must come to believe that it is not evil. But once again: Where does Nietzsche want to lead us?
We have already established that he believes our desire for truth is based on an unstable foundation. With that being the case, where can pursuit of truth ultimately lead but to nihilism? But in nihilism, life has no meaning, so Nietzsche wants to lead us beyond nihilism...beyond good and evil. He wants us to see life for what it is; an endless bombardment of fictions and games. The sooner we accept this, the sooner that we can move beyond good and evil and find meaning in our lives. This would be a means of asserting the Master morality toward a new notion of self-mastery, without necessarily having to slay kingdoms as Alexander the Great did. The real question for us, then, is about the standard against which "greatness" is to be measured. That's a tough one.
Be that as it may, Nietzsche is saying that in order to fix the herd mentality, we must, once again, strive for greatness (whatever that may be) and in doing so, we must make some sacrifices. While warmongering conquests may not be the answer for individuals, I believe that necessary sacrifices can begin to be identified by thinking in terms of long-term goals instead of the current societal mindset of instant gratification. Whether these sacrifices would fall within the bounds of current moral standards is unclear, but also unimportant if the Master morality is the goal.
While I do not claim to have all the answers about how to apply Nietzsche's philosophy in our daily lives (or whether we even should) I do believe that being introduced to his new brand of philosophy helped to free me from the chains of the repressive, narrow-minded, dogmatic silliness of religious bondage. He may not have been right about everything but, as I understand him, his philosophy teaches us to aspire to greatness and to celebrate life in the world we live in, not the imaginary world of "perfection". In this new world, little boys would no longer be frightened into the herd by hellfire sermons.
Rick Huffman is a National long-haul driver who spent 20 years in the broadcasting industry before becoming a trucker. He describes the career change as, "...the best decision I ever made on one day, and the worst one I ever made on the next."
I distinctly remember the intense fear that welled up in my heart as I watched beads of sweat form on the brow of the preacher who delivered his frightening ultimatum to the congregation with all the Puritan flair of a Jonathan Edwards hellfire sermon. Upon deliverance of his message, the exhausted preacher beseeched the unsaved souls of the congregation to walk the aisle and let Jesus deliver them from an eternity of suffering. Being almost frightened to tears at the prospect of eternal flames licking at my flesh, I immediately sprang from my pew and kneeled at the altar to beg Jesus to deliver me from this unthinkable damnation.
After the services were complete and the last refrain of "I Come" was played on the organ, I was a superstar as the youngest member of the congregation to have walked the aisle. I was bombarded by hugs and kisses of acceptance, and my shirt was stained from the tears of pious old women. I was no longer just a little dogie. Fear had mothered this little calf into the mentality and morality of "the herd". I was too young, at the time, to realize that the stage had been set.
My mother could not have been happier with the news that the neighbors brought them about my brave trek to salvation, but my father accepted the news with indifference as he aimlessly chewed his cud in the corner of the living room. My mother and the neighbors, however, were flitting about in anxious anticipation of my growing three additional stomachs. I did not discover Nietzsche until much later in life, but thanks to ideas that reflect some of his philosophical tenets, I was able to spit out my cud and open my mind to new possibilities.
There is no doubt that the members of my boyhood revival accepted God as absolute truth and perfection. The idea of an ultimate truth echoes throughout the history of philosophy, from Plato's forms to the Christian ideal of God and Heaven. No matter what the tradition, the idea of ultimate truth had not been questioned...until Nietzsche.
Nietzsche asks for the first time, "From where did our desire for truth come?" Up to now, every philosophical tradition was born on the notion of a desire to believe in a realm where there is not chaos, but order; not constant change, but immutability. Nietzsche declares that these are imaginary realms and that these ideas are not perceptions of something that really exists, but desperate attempts to invent a place where we know for certain that all our beliefs are true.
Why have we done this?
He poses the theory that maybe the appearance or the idea of absolute knowledge or truth is, itself, the illusion-not our imperfect perception of temporal knowledge. What if the unstable is actually the foundation of the stable? Nietzsche wants us to go back to the starting gate and reappraise our assumptions and, at the very least, ask:
"Where did they come from?"
Nietzsche offers his own theory about where our biased thinking originated. He theorizes that there are two types of morality: Master morality and Slave morality.
He further asserts that our desire for ultimate truth was inspired by the Slave morality. People of the Master morality are not truth-seekers. They derive meaning from life through worldly things. The Master morality is composed of conquering, aggressive people who create their own values. Alexander the Great would be an example of the Master morality. He conquered the entire world, that was known at the time, and be-damned to anyone who got in his way.
The Slave morality, on the other hand, derives meaning from life by denying worldly things. Nietzsche believes that the Slave morality arose because slaves could not enjoy the spoils of the Master morality, so they invented God and a realm of ultimate truth in order to give their lives meaning. People of the Slave morality believe that by believing that the world we live in is an illusion, the "true" realm will be their ultimate reward. Nietzsche believed that the problem in later thinking was that society had inherited the Slave morality. Where, then, does Nietzsche want to lead us?
A point to be considered is that if Nietzsche's ideal of the Master morality is accepted, we also have to accept exploitation as a necessary means of attaining it. Slave morality teaches us that exploitation is evil, but Nietzsche wants us to understand that exploitation is imperative for life, so we must come to believe that it is not evil. But once again: Where does Nietzsche want to lead us?
We have already established that he believes our desire for truth is based on an unstable foundation. With that being the case, where can pursuit of truth ultimately lead but to nihilism? But in nihilism, life has no meaning, so Nietzsche wants to lead us beyond nihilism...beyond good and evil. He wants us to see life for what it is; an endless bombardment of fictions and games. The sooner we accept this, the sooner that we can move beyond good and evil and find meaning in our lives. This would be a means of asserting the Master morality toward a new notion of self-mastery, without necessarily having to slay kingdoms as Alexander the Great did. The real question for us, then, is about the standard against which "greatness" is to be measured. That's a tough one.
Be that as it may, Nietzsche is saying that in order to fix the herd mentality, we must, once again, strive for greatness (whatever that may be) and in doing so, we must make some sacrifices. While warmongering conquests may not be the answer for individuals, I believe that necessary sacrifices can begin to be identified by thinking in terms of long-term goals instead of the current societal mindset of instant gratification. Whether these sacrifices would fall within the bounds of current moral standards is unclear, but also unimportant if the Master morality is the goal.
While I do not claim to have all the answers about how to apply Nietzsche's philosophy in our daily lives (or whether we even should) I do believe that being introduced to his new brand of philosophy helped to free me from the chains of the repressive, narrow-minded, dogmatic silliness of religious bondage. He may not have been right about everything but, as I understand him, his philosophy teaches us to aspire to greatness and to celebrate life in the world we live in, not the imaginary world of "perfection". In this new world, little boys would no longer be frightened into the herd by hellfire sermons.
Rick Huffman is a National long-haul driver who spent 20 years in the broadcasting industry before becoming a trucker. He describes the career change as, "...the best decision I ever made on one day, and the worst one I ever made on the next."
Herd Mentality
What is herd mentality?
It means to get influenced according to other people, do what majority of people, group or public are doing. Almost 99% of the population of universe preaches herd mentality and go with others to ride in the same boat. They feel what others feel and all their decisions are based on the people around them.
People mostly follow the herd mentality due to variety of factors:
Feel safe and secure - This is the most important factor which compels people to adopt the herd mentality. People tend to think themselves as a part of this world, society and thus associate themselves with the crowd. They feel that if they dare to defy others they may miss the bus to moon, so they don't bother much to think of their own and go with others. It's a common assumption as others are riding the bus, so let's go for the kill, either I will sink or rise with my group.
Lack of Confidence - People, who are not confident about their decisions, tend to go with herd mentality most of the time. Low of confidence they don't want to take a chance and always bother what if this decision of mine fails? But they never care to think what if our collective decision fails?
Laziness - Most of the people are lazy bums in this universe, when it comes to take their decisions and calculations. They love to go with others and they blindly follow actions of others and again feel too safe with others decision.
Let us analyze some common situations where people herd mentality is common,
1. Markets - What can be biggest example then our stock markets, when there was boom in the markets all over, people ignored many flaws and mistakes of this existent system. All thought that BSE sensex will touch 30000 soon and have lots of time to spare and enjoy before they die. But, all these times, we were just building castles in the air.
I can clearly thousand arguments supporting that since land and oil are most precious natural resources and both are limited. The population increasing everyday, so the demand of these natural resources will increase ever, so people bought them at whatever fancy prices the dealer offered and never cared for the interest rates. All they thought was that if we miss this bus, then we the ticket to moon. Most of them are hard paying prices for their foolishness and herd mentality.
Forget about the average individuals, many corporates were also not saved from this mass hysteria. Companies went on for the merger and acquisition spree, made some blunders and bought thrash companies at fancy prices. If you can go back to the history and search the Dotcom bubble, you will get numerous examples of this herd mentality and the onslaught of many companies for their herd mentality. All these buying spree will definitely put a huge debt and creating holes in the balance sheets. When the fire is out of control, now they are after people and banks for money. Cash is the king in these tough times and all who conserved cash in all those euphoric times without being a participant in the herd mentality can now look for loads of goodies at the same price.
I can clearly remember that during the boom time, tips and recommendations in the stock markets were flying cheap, even the auto rickshawalas and paan walas started to make the prediction of stock market. All the IPO's were oversubscribed many times, even those of small cap companies with no strong proved track records. People thought of these IPO's as the sure shot lotteries tickets. Now many of these companies are floating way below their issue price.
2. Career choices - There is a common consensus that choosing engineering or being a doctor is the safe heaven career. The sad part is that, parents are mostly responsible for this type of behavior. They tend to get assured after looking numerous successful examples of their friends, relatives or colleagues children. When this stock market boom started, people pushed themselves for MBA tag before their qualification and seizing every opportunity from this hysteria, the education institutions started exploiting the innocent minds and they charged some fancy prices for thrash quality of education they provide. Hundreds of colleges were opened up in a few years, but now these colleges find no students to enroll and also no companies to offer campus and all are complaining for the lack or loss of jobs.
Civil service preparation is a common all over the country, the main reason cited behind this is the service to country, but I raise one point, are there not other ways to serve our country? For me, its the herd mentality that dictates this behavior, others become convinced about its salary and the power it commands. It's also more common to measure and pursue after a job with the salary it pays at the cost of satisfaction of job what one serves. The sad part is that most of the parents are part of this evil and instead of guiding their children, where they can excel their best; they force their children to a career as per the established norms and rules of our society. This is where it hurts the most.
3. Daily life situations - consider these simple situations:
A child demands before his parents to enroll him/her for a private tuition; because he/she feels that his/her friends are getting something which he/she is being devoid of. The parents also see no harm in this since all the people are opting for coaching classes, they should send their progeny for the same else their career is at stake. God knows what they teach at these institutes, which the educated parents can't impart.
Nano is launched now; people are blindly considering pampering themselves with one, oblivious of the traffic chaos it will create in the roads. My mind is fully convinces that 3-5 years down the line, more and more people, will prefer bikes as compared to cars after this mess.
Work from home culture is slowly seeping in the Indian corporate culture, yet people find it difficult to resist their temptation to reach office at the morning hours when the traffic is horrific on roads. If one defies this trend and comes to office at odd times, he/she can save a lot of time in traffic.
Gadgets and gizmos are another area, where people tend to follow the herd mentality. The companies at times exploit this herd mentality and mass hysteria to their advantage. What more can be the best example than the apple ipod. It almost changed the balance into apples hands from being nowhere in the list.
It takes real guts or hard balls to against the herd mentality and to defy an established trend. You will be proved wrong every other day, by all these people there of this herd group. All will think you as out of mind and may be some maniac, but you need to just have a belief in yourself that some day you discover the light.
The day you discover the light in this dark phase, you will be the messiah for the whole of this herd and guide them into light. He/she is rewarded the most, who defies this trend and mentality, but the timing should be perfect else doom is imminent.
There is one common conclusion in all these things, we create this mess by following the herd mentality and when this mess is over, we keep complaining but at the end of the day, we are assured that thinking that others are in the same boat.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet.
It means to get influenced according to other people, do what majority of people, group or public are doing. Almost 99% of the population of universe preaches herd mentality and go with others to ride in the same boat. They feel what others feel and all their decisions are based on the people around them.
People mostly follow the herd mentality due to variety of factors:
Feel safe and secure - This is the most important factor which compels people to adopt the herd mentality. People tend to think themselves as a part of this world, society and thus associate themselves with the crowd. They feel that if they dare to defy others they may miss the bus to moon, so they don't bother much to think of their own and go with others. It's a common assumption as others are riding the bus, so let's go for the kill, either I will sink or rise with my group.
Lack of Confidence - People, who are not confident about their decisions, tend to go with herd mentality most of the time. Low of confidence they don't want to take a chance and always bother what if this decision of mine fails? But they never care to think what if our collective decision fails?
Laziness - Most of the people are lazy bums in this universe, when it comes to take their decisions and calculations. They love to go with others and they blindly follow actions of others and again feel too safe with others decision.
Let us analyze some common situations where people herd mentality is common,
1. Markets - What can be biggest example then our stock markets, when there was boom in the markets all over, people ignored many flaws and mistakes of this existent system. All thought that BSE sensex will touch 30000 soon and have lots of time to spare and enjoy before they die. But, all these times, we were just building castles in the air.
I can clearly thousand arguments supporting that since land and oil are most precious natural resources and both are limited. The population increasing everyday, so the demand of these natural resources will increase ever, so people bought them at whatever fancy prices the dealer offered and never cared for the interest rates. All they thought was that if we miss this bus, then we the ticket to moon. Most of them are hard paying prices for their foolishness and herd mentality.
Forget about the average individuals, many corporates were also not saved from this mass hysteria. Companies went on for the merger and acquisition spree, made some blunders and bought thrash companies at fancy prices. If you can go back to the history and search the Dotcom bubble, you will get numerous examples of this herd mentality and the onslaught of many companies for their herd mentality. All these buying spree will definitely put a huge debt and creating holes in the balance sheets. When the fire is out of control, now they are after people and banks for money. Cash is the king in these tough times and all who conserved cash in all those euphoric times without being a participant in the herd mentality can now look for loads of goodies at the same price.
I can clearly remember that during the boom time, tips and recommendations in the stock markets were flying cheap, even the auto rickshawalas and paan walas started to make the prediction of stock market. All the IPO's were oversubscribed many times, even those of small cap companies with no strong proved track records. People thought of these IPO's as the sure shot lotteries tickets. Now many of these companies are floating way below their issue price.
2. Career choices - There is a common consensus that choosing engineering or being a doctor is the safe heaven career. The sad part is that, parents are mostly responsible for this type of behavior. They tend to get assured after looking numerous successful examples of their friends, relatives or colleagues children. When this stock market boom started, people pushed themselves for MBA tag before their qualification and seizing every opportunity from this hysteria, the education institutions started exploiting the innocent minds and they charged some fancy prices for thrash quality of education they provide. Hundreds of colleges were opened up in a few years, but now these colleges find no students to enroll and also no companies to offer campus and all are complaining for the lack or loss of jobs.
Civil service preparation is a common all over the country, the main reason cited behind this is the service to country, but I raise one point, are there not other ways to serve our country? For me, its the herd mentality that dictates this behavior, others become convinced about its salary and the power it commands. It's also more common to measure and pursue after a job with the salary it pays at the cost of satisfaction of job what one serves. The sad part is that most of the parents are part of this evil and instead of guiding their children, where they can excel their best; they force their children to a career as per the established norms and rules of our society. This is where it hurts the most.
3. Daily life situations - consider these simple situations:
A child demands before his parents to enroll him/her for a private tuition; because he/she feels that his/her friends are getting something which he/she is being devoid of. The parents also see no harm in this since all the people are opting for coaching classes, they should send their progeny for the same else their career is at stake. God knows what they teach at these institutes, which the educated parents can't impart.
Nano is launched now; people are blindly considering pampering themselves with one, oblivious of the traffic chaos it will create in the roads. My mind is fully convinces that 3-5 years down the line, more and more people, will prefer bikes as compared to cars after this mess.
Work from home culture is slowly seeping in the Indian corporate culture, yet people find it difficult to resist their temptation to reach office at the morning hours when the traffic is horrific on roads. If one defies this trend and comes to office at odd times, he/she can save a lot of time in traffic.
Gadgets and gizmos are another area, where people tend to follow the herd mentality. The companies at times exploit this herd mentality and mass hysteria to their advantage. What more can be the best example than the apple ipod. It almost changed the balance into apples hands from being nowhere in the list.
It takes real guts or hard balls to against the herd mentality and to defy an established trend. You will be proved wrong every other day, by all these people there of this herd group. All will think you as out of mind and may be some maniac, but you need to just have a belief in yourself that some day you discover the light.
The day you discover the light in this dark phase, you will be the messiah for the whole of this herd and guide them into light. He/she is rewarded the most, who defies this trend and mentality, but the timing should be perfect else doom is imminent.
There is one common conclusion in all these things, we create this mess by following the herd mentality and when this mess is over, we keep complaining but at the end of the day, we are assured that thinking that others are in the same boat.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet.
羊群效应
假如你在绝望时抛售股票,你一定卖得很低。——投资大师 彼得·林奇
当市场处于低迷状态时,其实正是进行投资布局,等待未来高点收成的绝佳时机,不过,由于大多数投资人存在“羊群效应”的心理,当大家都不看好时,即使具有最佳成长前景的投资品种也无人问津;而等到市场热度增高,投资人才争先恐后地进场抢购,一旦市场稍有调整,大家又会一窝蜂地杀出,这似乎是大多数投资人无法克服的投资心理。
如何尽量避免跟风操作呢,我们的建议是:投资人结合自身的投资目标、风险承受度等因素,设定获利点和止损点,同时控制自己情绪来面对各种起落,加强个人“戒急用忍”能力,这样才能顺利达成投资目标。
基金投资虽然不应像股票一样短线进出,但适度转换或调整投资组合也是必要的,因为有些风险基金是无法避免的,如市场周期性风险,即使是明星基金也必须承担随着市场景气与产业周期起伏的风险。
设定获利点可以提醒您投资目标已经达到,避免陷入人性贪婪的弱点,最终反而错失赎回时机,使获利缩水。
设定止损点则可以锁定您的投资风险,以避免可能产生的更大损失。当基金回报率达到损益条件,您就应该判断是否获利了结或认赔赎回。设定获利点和止损点的参考依据很多,一般而言,投资人可以结合自身的风险承受度、获利期望值、目前所处年龄阶段、家庭经济状况以及所在的市场特征加以考虑,同时定期检查投资回报情况,这样才能找出最适合自己投资组合的获利及止损区间。这里特别强调每季度的定期检查,基金投资适合懒人,但仍须每季度检查基金表现、排名变化、投资标的增减,为最终的赎回或转换提供决策依据,以免错失最佳卖点或过早出局。
需要指出的是,当基金回报达到自己设定的获利点或止损点时,并不一定要立刻获利了结或认赔卖出,此时应评估市场长线走势是否仍看好、基金操作方向是否正确,以及自己设定的获利点或止损点是否符合当时市场情况,再决定如何调整投资组合。如果是因为市场短期调整而触及止损点,此时不宜贸然赎回,以免市场马上反弹,您却因为耐性不足而卖在低点。如果基金业绩在同类型基金中表现突出,同时所在市场长线也看好,只是因为短期波动达到止损点,此时如果能容忍继续持有的风险,或许您应该重新设定警示条件,甚至可趁机加码,达到逢低摊平的目的。
反之,当市场由多头转为空头已成定局,或者市场市盈率过高,市场风险增大时,无论是否达到获利点,都应尽快寻求最佳赎回时机。
当市场处于低迷状态时,其实正是进行投资布局,等待未来高点收成的绝佳时机,不过,由于大多数投资人存在“羊群效应”的心理,当大家都不看好时,即使具有最佳成长前景的投资品种也无人问津;而等到市场热度增高,投资人才争先恐后地进场抢购,一旦市场稍有调整,大家又会一窝蜂地杀出,这似乎是大多数投资人无法克服的投资心理。
如何尽量避免跟风操作呢,我们的建议是:投资人结合自身的投资目标、风险承受度等因素,设定获利点和止损点,同时控制自己情绪来面对各种起落,加强个人“戒急用忍”能力,这样才能顺利达成投资目标。
基金投资虽然不应像股票一样短线进出,但适度转换或调整投资组合也是必要的,因为有些风险基金是无法避免的,如市场周期性风险,即使是明星基金也必须承担随着市场景气与产业周期起伏的风险。
设定获利点可以提醒您投资目标已经达到,避免陷入人性贪婪的弱点,最终反而错失赎回时机,使获利缩水。
设定止损点则可以锁定您的投资风险,以避免可能产生的更大损失。当基金回报率达到损益条件,您就应该判断是否获利了结或认赔赎回。设定获利点和止损点的参考依据很多,一般而言,投资人可以结合自身的风险承受度、获利期望值、目前所处年龄阶段、家庭经济状况以及所在的市场特征加以考虑,同时定期检查投资回报情况,这样才能找出最适合自己投资组合的获利及止损区间。这里特别强调每季度的定期检查,基金投资适合懒人,但仍须每季度检查基金表现、排名变化、投资标的增减,为最终的赎回或转换提供决策依据,以免错失最佳卖点或过早出局。
需要指出的是,当基金回报达到自己设定的获利点或止损点时,并不一定要立刻获利了结或认赔卖出,此时应评估市场长线走势是否仍看好、基金操作方向是否正确,以及自己设定的获利点或止损点是否符合当时市场情况,再决定如何调整投资组合。如果是因为市场短期调整而触及止损点,此时不宜贸然赎回,以免市场马上反弹,您却因为耐性不足而卖在低点。如果基金业绩在同类型基金中表现突出,同时所在市场长线也看好,只是因为短期波动达到止损点,此时如果能容忍继续持有的风险,或许您应该重新设定警示条件,甚至可趁机加码,达到逢低摊平的目的。
反之,当市场由多头转为空头已成定局,或者市场市盈率过高,市场风险增大时,无论是否达到获利点,都应尽快寻求最佳赎回时机。
Herd Mentality
Conformity is a powerful instinct. There’s safety in numbers. You have to be different to be better, but different is scary.
So of course there’s some degree of herd mentality in every industry. But I think it’s more pronounced, to a pathological degree, in the PC hardware industry. It was at the root of long-standing punditry holding that Apple should license the Mac OS to other PC makers, or that Apple should dump Mac OS and make Windows PCs. On the surface, those two old canards seem contradictory — one arguing that Apple should be a hardware company, the other arguing that it should be a software company. But at their root they’re the same argument: that Apple should stop being different, and either act just like other PC makers (and sell computers running Windows) or else act just like Microsoft (and sell licenses to its OS).
No one argues those two points any more. But it’s the same herd mentality that led to the rash of Apple needs to get in the “netbook” game punditry that I claim-checked earlier this week. I could have linked to a dozen others. The argument, though, is the same: everyone else is making netbooks, so Apple should, too. Why? Because everyone else is.
I think there’s a simple reason why the herd mentality is worse in the PC industry: Microsoft. In fact, I think it used to be worse. A decade ago the entire computing industry — all facets of it — was dominated by a herd mentality that boiled down to Get behind Microsoft and follow their lead, or else you’ll get stomped. That’s no longer true in application software. The web, and Google in particular, have put an end to that.
But the one area where Microsoft still reigns supreme is in PC operating systems. PC hardware makers are crippled. They can’t stand apart from the herd even if they want to. Their OS choices are: (a) the same version of Windows that every other PC maker includes; or (b) the same open source Linux distributions that every other PC maker could include but which no customers want to buy.1
Apple’s ability to produce innovative hardware is inextricably intertwined with its ability to produce innovative software. The iPhone is an even better example than the Mac.
It’s not just that Apple is different among computer makers. It’s that Apple is the only one that even can be different, because it’s the only one that has its own OS. Part of the industry-wide herd mentality is an assumption that no one else can make a computer OS — that anyone can make a computer but only Microsoft can make an OS. It should be embarrassing to companies like Dell and Sony, with deep pockets and strong brand names, that they’re stuck selling computers with the same copy of Windows installed as the no-name brands.
And then there’s HP, a company with one of the best names and proudest histories in the industry. Apple made news this week for the design and tech specs of its all-new iMacs, which start at $1199. HP made news this week for unveiling a Windows 7 launch bundle at Best Buy that includes a desktop PC and two laptops, all for $1199. That might be great for Microsoft, but how is it good for HP that their brand now stands for bargain basement prices?
Operating systems aren’t mere components like RAM or CPUs; they’re the single most important part of the computing experience. Other than Apple, there’s not a single PC maker that controls the most important aspect of its computers. Imagine how much better the industry would be if there were more than one computer maker trying to move the state of the art forward.
So of course there’s some degree of herd mentality in every industry. But I think it’s more pronounced, to a pathological degree, in the PC hardware industry. It was at the root of long-standing punditry holding that Apple should license the Mac OS to other PC makers, or that Apple should dump Mac OS and make Windows PCs. On the surface, those two old canards seem contradictory — one arguing that Apple should be a hardware company, the other arguing that it should be a software company. But at their root they’re the same argument: that Apple should stop being different, and either act just like other PC makers (and sell computers running Windows) or else act just like Microsoft (and sell licenses to its OS).
No one argues those two points any more. But it’s the same herd mentality that led to the rash of Apple needs to get in the “netbook” game punditry that I claim-checked earlier this week. I could have linked to a dozen others. The argument, though, is the same: everyone else is making netbooks, so Apple should, too. Why? Because everyone else is.
I think there’s a simple reason why the herd mentality is worse in the PC industry: Microsoft. In fact, I think it used to be worse. A decade ago the entire computing industry — all facets of it — was dominated by a herd mentality that boiled down to Get behind Microsoft and follow their lead, or else you’ll get stomped. That’s no longer true in application software. The web, and Google in particular, have put an end to that.
But the one area where Microsoft still reigns supreme is in PC operating systems. PC hardware makers are crippled. They can’t stand apart from the herd even if they want to. Their OS choices are: (a) the same version of Windows that every other PC maker includes; or (b) the same open source Linux distributions that every other PC maker could include but which no customers want to buy.1
Apple’s ability to produce innovative hardware is inextricably intertwined with its ability to produce innovative software. The iPhone is an even better example than the Mac.
It’s not just that Apple is different among computer makers. It’s that Apple is the only one that even can be different, because it’s the only one that has its own OS. Part of the industry-wide herd mentality is an assumption that no one else can make a computer OS — that anyone can make a computer but only Microsoft can make an OS. It should be embarrassing to companies like Dell and Sony, with deep pockets and strong brand names, that they’re stuck selling computers with the same copy of Windows installed as the no-name brands.
And then there’s HP, a company with one of the best names and proudest histories in the industry. Apple made news this week for the design and tech specs of its all-new iMacs, which start at $1199. HP made news this week for unveiling a Windows 7 launch bundle at Best Buy that includes a desktop PC and two laptops, all for $1199. That might be great for Microsoft, but how is it good for HP that their brand now stands for bargain basement prices?
Operating systems aren’t mere components like RAM or CPUs; they’re the single most important part of the computing experience. Other than Apple, there’s not a single PC maker that controls the most important aspect of its computers. Imagine how much better the industry would be if there were more than one computer maker trying to move the state of the art forward.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Global economic woes hit Singapore, Japan exports
SINGAPORE (AP) -- The effects of the European debt crisis and sluggish U.S. growth are radiating into Asia's export-driven economies, putting brakes on the rebound from the 2009 global recession.
Singapore, seen as a bellwether of Western demand because of its very high reliance on trade, said Monday its economy would likely suffer a sharp slowdown next year as export orders from developed countries wane.
Adding to the pessimism, Japan suffered its first drop in exports in three months and a top Chinese official predicted the current malaise in the world economy would be long lasting. The slew of dour news helped send Asian stock markets lower.
"Although resilient domestic demand in emerging Asia will provide some support to global demand, it will not fully mitigate the effects of an economic slowdown in the advanced economies," Singapore's Trade and Industry Ministry said in a statement.
Europe's economy is barely growing amid its ever widening debt crisis and sharp government spending cuts might tip the region back into recession. At the same time, the U.S. is dogged by high unemployment, making it difficult for the world's No. 1 economy to stage a healthy comeback from the recession sparked by the 2008 financial crisis.
Asia, led by China's enormous stimulus spending, bounced back quickly from the last worldwide downturn and gained increased global clout as a result. But the region remains reliant on Western demand for its cars, electronics, clothing and other goods.
The Asian Development Bank estimated that the 2008 financial crisis that sparked the global recession added 60 million people in developing Asia to the ranks of those already trapped in extreme poverty. That was in addition some 900 million Asians already living on $1.25 or less a day.
In bluntly negative terms, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who oversees trade and finance, described the global economic situation as "extremely serious," state media reported on the weekend.
"In a time of uncertainty the only thing we can be certain of is that the world economic recession caused by the international crisis will last a long time," Wang was quoted as saying ahead of annual talks between U.S. and Chinese trade officials.
In Japan, exports fell for the first time in three months in October, eroded partly by a strong yen. Exports declined 3.7 percent from a year earlier to 5.51 trillion yen ($71.7 billion), the finance ministry said. Shipments to key markets such as China, North America and the European Union weakened.
The world's No. 3 economy relies heavily on overseas demand to drive growth. The slowdown suggests that its recovery from the March 11 tsunami and earthquake is fading in the face of global headwinds.
Rising energy prices pushed imports up almost 18 percent to 5.79 trillion yen ($75.3 billion). That resulted in an unexpected trade deficit of 273.8 billion yen ($3.56 billion).
Economists predict Japan's gross domestic product will contract in the last three months of the year after a recovery in exports helped it surge 6 percent in the July-September quarter.
Momentum is also being sapped by a strong yen, which shrinks the value of overseas earnings when repatriated and makes Japanese products less price competitive. The currency levels have forced manufacturers including Nissan Motor Co. and Panasonic Corp. to shift some production overseas, a trend that could further undermine Japan's exports.
The Singapore government forecast that economic growth will probably drop to between 1 percent and 3 percent in 2012 from 5 percent this year. The island of 5.1 million people off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, relies on exports, finance and tourism to maintain one of the world's highest levels of GDP per head.
Citigroup said it expects Singapore's economy to shrink as much as 7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year from the previous quarter. That would be followed by a bigger contraction in the first quarter of next year, it said.
Economic growth in the U.S. and Europe will likely be hamstrung by government austerity, lower lending to households and weak labor and housing markets, Singapore's trade ministry said. It said its GDP forecast does not factor in "a worsening debt situation or a full-blown financial crisis in the advanced economies."
Singapore lowered its forecast for this year's export growth to between 2 percent and 3 percent from 6 to 7 percent after sales abroad contracted 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
The economy grew 6.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier.
Singapore, seen as a bellwether of Western demand because of its very high reliance on trade, said Monday its economy would likely suffer a sharp slowdown next year as export orders from developed countries wane.
Adding to the pessimism, Japan suffered its first drop in exports in three months and a top Chinese official predicted the current malaise in the world economy would be long lasting. The slew of dour news helped send Asian stock markets lower.
"Although resilient domestic demand in emerging Asia will provide some support to global demand, it will not fully mitigate the effects of an economic slowdown in the advanced economies," Singapore's Trade and Industry Ministry said in a statement.
Europe's economy is barely growing amid its ever widening debt crisis and sharp government spending cuts might tip the region back into recession. At the same time, the U.S. is dogged by high unemployment, making it difficult for the world's No. 1 economy to stage a healthy comeback from the recession sparked by the 2008 financial crisis.
Asia, led by China's enormous stimulus spending, bounced back quickly from the last worldwide downturn and gained increased global clout as a result. But the region remains reliant on Western demand for its cars, electronics, clothing and other goods.
The Asian Development Bank estimated that the 2008 financial crisis that sparked the global recession added 60 million people in developing Asia to the ranks of those already trapped in extreme poverty. That was in addition some 900 million Asians already living on $1.25 or less a day.
In bluntly negative terms, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who oversees trade and finance, described the global economic situation as "extremely serious," state media reported on the weekend.
"In a time of uncertainty the only thing we can be certain of is that the world economic recession caused by the international crisis will last a long time," Wang was quoted as saying ahead of annual talks between U.S. and Chinese trade officials.
In Japan, exports fell for the first time in three months in October, eroded partly by a strong yen. Exports declined 3.7 percent from a year earlier to 5.51 trillion yen ($71.7 billion), the finance ministry said. Shipments to key markets such as China, North America and the European Union weakened.
The world's No. 3 economy relies heavily on overseas demand to drive growth. The slowdown suggests that its recovery from the March 11 tsunami and earthquake is fading in the face of global headwinds.
Rising energy prices pushed imports up almost 18 percent to 5.79 trillion yen ($75.3 billion). That resulted in an unexpected trade deficit of 273.8 billion yen ($3.56 billion).
Economists predict Japan's gross domestic product will contract in the last three months of the year after a recovery in exports helped it surge 6 percent in the July-September quarter.
Momentum is also being sapped by a strong yen, which shrinks the value of overseas earnings when repatriated and makes Japanese products less price competitive. The currency levels have forced manufacturers including Nissan Motor Co. and Panasonic Corp. to shift some production overseas, a trend that could further undermine Japan's exports.
The Singapore government forecast that economic growth will probably drop to between 1 percent and 3 percent in 2012 from 5 percent this year. The island of 5.1 million people off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, relies on exports, finance and tourism to maintain one of the world's highest levels of GDP per head.
Citigroup said it expects Singapore's economy to shrink as much as 7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year from the previous quarter. That would be followed by a bigger contraction in the first quarter of next year, it said.
Economic growth in the U.S. and Europe will likely be hamstrung by government austerity, lower lending to households and weak labor and housing markets, Singapore's trade ministry said. It said its GDP forecast does not factor in "a worsening debt situation or a full-blown financial crisis in the advanced economies."
Singapore lowered its forecast for this year's export growth to between 2 percent and 3 percent from 6 to 7 percent after sales abroad contracted 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
The economy grew 6.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier.
耐心、自检
我知道很多时候熊途漫长,我这两年比其他的年份在资金管理上更加注重一些了,以往遇到低估值的心仪的优秀成长企业,就几乎分两三次就建仓完毕了,往往熊市尾巴的时候,我有些个股竟被套幅度竟然达到30-50%,因为我们买入的冷门股低估的价值成长股,既然被低估,很显然绝非是眼前的热门股,暂时浮动亏损对于未来的长期成长来说其实不值得一提.即便如此,现如今布局阶段我力控浮动亏损在10%-15%之内,最坏情况不能长期大于20%,从巴菲特买入低估证券来看,分批不断逢大跌买入是很正常的事情,买进大幅被套也很常见,这时候综合的资金管理水平就显得非常重要了。但不管布局阶段浮动亏损怎样,你的选股必须是比较确定性的未来具有持续性成长力度,也就是说企业必须是有巨大成长空间的。因此我们将选择重点放在企业身上,而并不是想天真地找到某股的底部和预测短期行情,正像沃尔特。施洛斯所言“要耐心些,股市不会马上上涨。”
因此将巴菲特和沃尔特。施洛斯结合成自己的一些风格,关键是要适合自己:
1、首要任务是学会如何控制风险。
2、注重资产质量,注重资产的价值,尽可能做到用0.8元以下的资金去买1元以上的东西。
3、选择长期成长型企业,虽然不代表你一定长期固定持有,但企业一定有或正在形成坚实的壁垒,未来确定性地进入长期成长的轨道。我们采用动态长期持有的方法.
4、独立思考,严格遵守原则。
5、常阅读多学习,定期地、长期地进行自我检查,使自己的投资始终沿着既定的轨道前行。
总结一句:价值投资人的成功靠的就是耐心和自检。
因此将巴菲特和沃尔特。施洛斯结合成自己的一些风格,关键是要适合自己:
1、首要任务是学会如何控制风险。
2、注重资产质量,注重资产的价值,尽可能做到用0.8元以下的资金去买1元以上的东西。
3、选择长期成长型企业,虽然不代表你一定长期固定持有,但企业一定有或正在形成坚实的壁垒,未来确定性地进入长期成长的轨道。我们采用动态长期持有的方法.
4、独立思考,严格遵守原则。
5、常阅读多学习,定期地、长期地进行自我检查,使自己的投资始终沿着既定的轨道前行。
总结一句:价值投资人的成功靠的就是耐心和自检。
股神巴菲特给股市投资者的5条“军规”
近期股神巴菲特给出自己投资的5条建议,笔者称之为价值投资者的5点军规,我们通过以价值投资的角度来解读和分析,结合当前A股市场现状来谈谈当前的投资思路。
第一条建议:视股票为生意的一部分,问自己“若股市明日关闭,历时3年,我将会有何感受?”如果我在那情况下很乐意于拥有该只股票,这尤如我对自己的生意感到欣慰。这种理念对投资方面尤为重要;
巴菲特将投资股票视为生意的一部分,其实也是事业的核心。许多普通投资者将股票视为赚快钱,其实那就是在投机,在赌博。从这个角度而言,股票市场是否是赌场,并不取决于股票质量的好坏,而是取决于市场参与者是否抱着一种赌博的心态。巴菲特用一级市场的眼光来研究二级市场,至少保证风险降低了许多。普通投资者过于追求快速盈利的结果,但往往效果恰恰相反,最终亏钱出局。从短期来看,股市是零和游戏,甚至是负和游戏,但长期而言,股市是财富的创造者。
第二条建议:市场在服务你,不是指示你。市场不会说给你听你的投资决定是对,还是错,但生意结果却可决定到你是对还是错。这都是从华尔街公认的证券分析之父BenGraham(本杰明格雷厄姆)偷师的;
本杰明格雷厄姆将“市场先生”的本性用歇斯底里来形容,真是恰如其分。市场先生永远是成功投资人的仆人,而不是主人。如果将这种主仆关系调换,让投资者成为“市场先生”的奴隶,那么投资者就要付出惨重的代价。理性投资者最好的办法就是趁着市场先生打折拍卖自己手里的家产之时,顺手牵羊捡个便宜货;在市场先生哭着喊着要买股票时候,成功投资者趁势将手里的高估的股票“大方”让给他。
第三条建议:当你无法精确知道一只股票的价值时,那就应让自己处于安全边际。这样你就只进入一种状态,那就是你可以在某程度出错,但又可很快脱险;
安全边际的概念由格雷厄姆首创,已经非常经典,他是指,如果价格跌破内在价值的一半,那样才具有安全边际。安全边际保证了大家买的股票物有所值,不会追高。即使价格再往下跌,转手卖出获得更高收益的机会仍然会很大。长期来看,只要选择的公司是优质的企业,没有破产倒闭的风险,那么价格迟早会涨到内在价值上来。这就如同马克思所言,从根本上而言,价值决定价格,但在供求关系的影响下,价格会围绕价值上下波动。对投机者而言,懂得何时买卖要比买卖什么更重要,但对投资者而言,只要发现了安全边际的股票,就可以买,不用理睬指数是否已经见底。
第四条建议:辩证看待“精明的人最经常以借来的钱去作孤注一掷的事”;
精明的投资者照样可以做集中投资,只要认为风险可控,那就应该孤注一掷。理论学派认为投资应该分散化,这样才能降低风险,价值投资者认为这是谬论。巴菲特认为,与其两鸟在林,不如一鸟在手。价值低估的东西就应该改于借钱买,而不是等着机会错过。优秀的投资者如果是猎手,一旦找到合适的机会,就应该果断出手,而不是患得患失。当然,索罗斯曾经说过,承担风险无可指责,但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。但巴菲特与索罗斯两人的观点并不矛盾,索罗斯强调的是对风险要有事先的准备,要做最坏的打算,巴菲特强调的是如何实现收益的最大化。他们谈的是一个硬币的两面。
第五条建议:股票不知你拥有它,你对它有感觉,它却对你毫无感觉。股票亦不知你付出了什么。人们不应将情感投射于股票上。
巴菲特说过,投资要用大脑而不是用腺体。投资最大的障碍就在于克服感情因素带来的不稳定。如何保持理性且客观的投资心态,这是成为成功投资人的必要条件。普通投资人往往意味过于关注市场的涨跌,心情也随市场起伏波动,时好时坏。对价值投资者而言,无论是晴天多云,还是刮风下雨,投资的本质不会改变。最终都是要落实到企业的内在价值上来。
运用这5条军规来谈谈中国的A股市场,我们坚信成功的价值投资者最大的优点乃是保持冷静和理性。不管大家对经济复苏有多好的预期,不管大家对流动性充满多强的预期,一旦市场大大高于合理估值水平,那么调整就只是时间问题。不管市场先生的情绪如何变化,不管市场波动是否有足够吸引人,有一点理性投资者需要把握,即,市盈率30倍的股票,让你买,你是否觉得贵呢?是否具备了安全边际。
第一条建议:视股票为生意的一部分,问自己“若股市明日关闭,历时3年,我将会有何感受?”如果我在那情况下很乐意于拥有该只股票,这尤如我对自己的生意感到欣慰。这种理念对投资方面尤为重要;
巴菲特将投资股票视为生意的一部分,其实也是事业的核心。许多普通投资者将股票视为赚快钱,其实那就是在投机,在赌博。从这个角度而言,股票市场是否是赌场,并不取决于股票质量的好坏,而是取决于市场参与者是否抱着一种赌博的心态。巴菲特用一级市场的眼光来研究二级市场,至少保证风险降低了许多。普通投资者过于追求快速盈利的结果,但往往效果恰恰相反,最终亏钱出局。从短期来看,股市是零和游戏,甚至是负和游戏,但长期而言,股市是财富的创造者。
第二条建议:市场在服务你,不是指示你。市场不会说给你听你的投资决定是对,还是错,但生意结果却可决定到你是对还是错。这都是从华尔街公认的证券分析之父BenGraham(本杰明格雷厄姆)偷师的;
本杰明格雷厄姆将“市场先生”的本性用歇斯底里来形容,真是恰如其分。市场先生永远是成功投资人的仆人,而不是主人。如果将这种主仆关系调换,让投资者成为“市场先生”的奴隶,那么投资者就要付出惨重的代价。理性投资者最好的办法就是趁着市场先生打折拍卖自己手里的家产之时,顺手牵羊捡个便宜货;在市场先生哭着喊着要买股票时候,成功投资者趁势将手里的高估的股票“大方”让给他。
第三条建议:当你无法精确知道一只股票的价值时,那就应让自己处于安全边际。这样你就只进入一种状态,那就是你可以在某程度出错,但又可很快脱险;
安全边际的概念由格雷厄姆首创,已经非常经典,他是指,如果价格跌破内在价值的一半,那样才具有安全边际。安全边际保证了大家买的股票物有所值,不会追高。即使价格再往下跌,转手卖出获得更高收益的机会仍然会很大。长期来看,只要选择的公司是优质的企业,没有破产倒闭的风险,那么价格迟早会涨到内在价值上来。这就如同马克思所言,从根本上而言,价值决定价格,但在供求关系的影响下,价格会围绕价值上下波动。对投机者而言,懂得何时买卖要比买卖什么更重要,但对投资者而言,只要发现了安全边际的股票,就可以买,不用理睬指数是否已经见底。
第四条建议:辩证看待“精明的人最经常以借来的钱去作孤注一掷的事”;
精明的投资者照样可以做集中投资,只要认为风险可控,那就应该孤注一掷。理论学派认为投资应该分散化,这样才能降低风险,价值投资者认为这是谬论。巴菲特认为,与其两鸟在林,不如一鸟在手。价值低估的东西就应该改于借钱买,而不是等着机会错过。优秀的投资者如果是猎手,一旦找到合适的机会,就应该果断出手,而不是患得患失。当然,索罗斯曾经说过,承担风险无可指责,但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。但巴菲特与索罗斯两人的观点并不矛盾,索罗斯强调的是对风险要有事先的准备,要做最坏的打算,巴菲特强调的是如何实现收益的最大化。他们谈的是一个硬币的两面。
第五条建议:股票不知你拥有它,你对它有感觉,它却对你毫无感觉。股票亦不知你付出了什么。人们不应将情感投射于股票上。
巴菲特说过,投资要用大脑而不是用腺体。投资最大的障碍就在于克服感情因素带来的不稳定。如何保持理性且客观的投资心态,这是成为成功投资人的必要条件。普通投资人往往意味过于关注市场的涨跌,心情也随市场起伏波动,时好时坏。对价值投资者而言,无论是晴天多云,还是刮风下雨,投资的本质不会改变。最终都是要落实到企业的内在价值上来。
运用这5条军规来谈谈中国的A股市场,我们坚信成功的价值投资者最大的优点乃是保持冷静和理性。不管大家对经济复苏有多好的预期,不管大家对流动性充满多强的预期,一旦市场大大高于合理估值水平,那么调整就只是时间问题。不管市场先生的情绪如何变化,不管市场波动是否有足够吸引人,有一点理性投资者需要把握,即,市盈率30倍的股票,让你买,你是否觉得贵呢?是否具备了安全边际。
静静地累积财富
尽管希望做到“积极”管理我们的资金,但我个人每天不断反思的内容还是:“是否近期我的投资动作已毫无原则性?是否什么也不做其实也是一种决策!”我承认投资过程中,绝大多数时候你无所作为,可能就是一种上上策。
正像萨缪尔森说的那样:“投资本来就是乏味的,不用激情四射。投资犹如看着油漆一点点地风干,或是青草慢慢地成长一样。如果你想寻求刺激,不不妨带上800美元去拉斯维加斯,不过即便是在拉斯维加斯、丘吉尔跑马场或是美林证券,赚钱也不是一件易事。”
这具有普遍的共识性,既为:靠频繁的交易你无法大概率获得财富的累积,除非你不是凡人。你需要尽可能摆脱短中期的浮动亏损的对心态困扰,当你认识是到投资面临短期波动是非常正常的事了,最后的大胜利需要你的镇静和忍耐。手中有股,心中无股,绝大多数时间,你仿佛就是一个旁观者,去静静地欣赏市场上下起落。
法国哲学家布莱仕.帕斯卡(Blaise Pascal)说了一句用在何处都最有说服力的话:“人类所有的悲剧,都源于他们不能独处静坐。”
这很好的说明了投资获胜的基本要素:
独处:独立思考。
静坐:避免喧嚣,静静地累积财富。
我们的投资原则长期动态持有优秀企业,因此许多时候我都尽可能严格对待这个“动”字,从置顶的《导读》中你可以找到我们“动”的基本原则。争取“动”到画龙点睛之处!
对于人生,从少年到老年仿佛瞬间而过,流淌的时间是可怕的。
对于投资,财富累积需要时间的发酵,时间的流淌是可爱的。
这可怕与可爱的矛盾积聚,便是大众投资的软肋,
因此除了理性的价值分析和投资信念,
你也许真的找不到赖以坚持的理由了。
因而
会赚钱的投资人很少,
投资赚钱变得很难。
因而需要你
更具耐心、与大众反向、
更具坚韧的性格。
正像萨缪尔森说的那样:“投资本来就是乏味的,不用激情四射。投资犹如看着油漆一点点地风干,或是青草慢慢地成长一样。如果你想寻求刺激,不不妨带上800美元去拉斯维加斯,不过即便是在拉斯维加斯、丘吉尔跑马场或是美林证券,赚钱也不是一件易事。”
这具有普遍的共识性,既为:靠频繁的交易你无法大概率获得财富的累积,除非你不是凡人。你需要尽可能摆脱短中期的浮动亏损的对心态困扰,当你认识是到投资面临短期波动是非常正常的事了,最后的大胜利需要你的镇静和忍耐。手中有股,心中无股,绝大多数时间,你仿佛就是一个旁观者,去静静地欣赏市场上下起落。
法国哲学家布莱仕.帕斯卡(Blaise Pascal)说了一句用在何处都最有说服力的话:“人类所有的悲剧,都源于他们不能独处静坐。”
这很好的说明了投资获胜的基本要素:
独处:独立思考。
静坐:避免喧嚣,静静地累积财富。
我们的投资原则长期动态持有优秀企业,因此许多时候我都尽可能严格对待这个“动”字,从置顶的《导读》中你可以找到我们“动”的基本原则。争取“动”到画龙点睛之处!
对于人生,从少年到老年仿佛瞬间而过,流淌的时间是可怕的。
对于投资,财富累积需要时间的发酵,时间的流淌是可爱的。
这可怕与可爱的矛盾积聚,便是大众投资的软肋,
因此除了理性的价值分析和投资信念,
你也许真的找不到赖以坚持的理由了。
因而
会赚钱的投资人很少,
投资赚钱变得很难。
因而需要你
更具耐心、与大众反向、
更具坚韧的性格。
巴菲特怎么玩衍生品
巴菲特执掌的伯尔希克哈撒韦在2011年三季度因为股市下跌而在衍生产品交易上亏损24.43亿美元,这是近期媒体报道的一个热门话题。甚至有媒体和专家将其诠释为巴菲特也变得“贪婪”并终究因此而股神光环大褪色。
真的是这样吗?如果你相信这样的结论,那只能怪你并不真的了解巴菲特,或者说了解的只是那个媒体塑造的买入股票后一生持有的 “僵化”巴菲特。
谁说巴菲特不玩衍生品
在许多人心目中,巴菲特对衍生品是深恶痛绝的。这不仅在于巴菲特对于许多上市公司发放给高管的员工股权激励方式持批判态度,更因为巴菲特多年前那篇脍炙人口的短文《金融衍生品是大规模杀伤武器》。
是的,巴菲特不喜欢过于复杂的衍生品。在《2008年给股东的信》中,巴菲特曾提及过这样一段往事:当伯克希尔在1998年收购GeneralRe时,我们知道我们搞不定它同884个交易商达成的23218份衍生产品合约(其中很多交易商和衍生产品我们听都没听过)。因此我们决定不做这生意。尽管当我们选择退出时,我们不用承受任何压力,市场也很温和,大致完成这项任务仍用了我们五年时间,让我们蒙受了超过4亿美元的损失。离别之际,我们对这门生意的感觉正如一句乡村民谣歌词所唱:“在我了解你之前,我还更喜欢你些。 ”
一篇短文,再加上这段历史,让许多人产生了巴菲特不爱衍生产品的“错觉”。但若你看过巴菲特的传记,便会了解其实早在很早期,巴菲特就是衍生品爱好者了至少早在1993年,他就卖出过可口可乐的认沽期权赚取期权金。
衍生品也有价值投资
那么,巴菲特对于衍生品到底是怎样的一个态度呢?其实和其数十年在股票上的态度一样,就四个字价值投资。
在更早期《2006年给股东的信》中,巴菲特对这个问题就已经做出了解答:
为什么波克希尔现在还要跟这个有害物质一起厮混呢?答案是,衍生性金融商品也像股票及债券一样,常在价格与价值上出现离谱的偏差。因此,许多年来,波克希尔在衍生性合约的签订,一向是具有选择性的,在数量上不多,但有时金额却很庞大。
巴菲特怎么玩衍生品
那么,巴菲特在衍生品上是怎么进行价值投资的呢?在《2007年给股东的信》中,巴菲特简单介绍了其持有的94个衍生品。第一类是承担54个特定债券的违约风险;而第二类则是今次三季度衍生品亏损罪魁祸首的股票指数卖出期权。对于这部分,巴菲特如此介绍:第二类合约,涉及到我们卖出的,针对四种股票指数(标准普尔500指数,加上三种国外的指数)的各种卖出期权(putoption)合约。这些卖出期权的起始期限不是15年就是20年,它们会受到市场的影响。我们(通过卖出这样合约,)收到45亿美元的额外收入,也在年底,记录了46亿美元的负债。这些卖出期权合约只能在到期时,才会执行。它们的到期时间在2019年到2027年之间。届时,只有在上述的股票指数水平,低于签订卖出期权合约时的,我们才需要付钱出去。同样的,我相信这些合约,总体上将是盈利的。我们也将在持有这些合约的15或20年里,通过用卖出这些合约获得的收入去投资,获得丰厚的收益。
而在《2009年给股东的信》,巴菲特又补充了一个重要的细节:
只有少数合同要求我们无论如何交付抵押保证金。去年,股市和信用市场价位走低,我们的支付要求是17亿美元,只是我们拥有的衍生品相关浮存金的一小部分。当我们支付抵押保证金的时候,我们所支付的抵押品仍然在给我们赚钱。
巴菲特衍生品的纸面亏损
巴菲特的上述解释,其实已经足以了解他的操作手法了。为了简化,我们就假设巴菲特其实只卖出了针对S&P500指数的平价认沽期权,2007年S&P500指数大体在1400点上下盘整,我们假设期权的执行价就是1400点,同时我们假设期权的到期日是2019年和2027年之间的2023年。
这意味着假设到了2023年,若S&P500指数在1400点之下,那么巴菲特就必须支付当时点位与1400点相差部分的资金。我们用三季度S&P500指数从1320点下降至1131点这189点对应24.43亿元亏损估算,假设倒是S&P500指数跌至0点,那么巴菲特的最大亏损是180.96亿美元。但是别忘了,巴菲特之前可是收取了45亿美元的期权金,这笔钱巴菲特可以从2007年到2023年之间无偿运作,即使我们按照当时20年美国国债4.91%的年化收益计算,15年也足以将这笔钱增值至92.35亿美元,进一步降低巴菲特的风险。
更何况,到了2023年,S&P500指数还在1400点的可能性又有多大呢?我们可以做一个简单测算,目前1260点色S&P500指数对应的市盈率为13.41倍,即每股盈利93.96点。若S&P500指数的每股盈利能够按照4%的速度增长(尚低于GDP的增速),则每股盈利15年则增长至169.22点,这意味着1400点S&P500指数只相当于8.27倍的市盈率,你觉得这种情况的可能性有多大?毕竟即使是当下,市场给出的S&P500指数3-5年的利润年化增长仍有10.9%。
所以,期权到期时,巴菲特真正因为这些期权而需要支付额外资金结算的可能,相当之小。而在这之前,由于绝大多数合约都无需追加保证金,所以不过是财务报表上的“纸面亏损”。别忘了,巴菲特的这些合约,可是在次贷危机之前就开立的,可谓是久经考验。2008年整年,因为这些衍生品合约,伯尔希克哈撒韦账面亏损68.21亿美元,比今年三季度要多得多,但那又如何,2009年,巴菲特在这批衍生合约上又盈利了36.24亿美元。这些衍生品上的盈盈亏亏,虽然对伯尔希克哈撒韦的每股盈利有影响,但是对其实际经营和现金流并无任何影响,所以在巴菲特看来,真是标准的“浮云”而已。
真的是这样吗?如果你相信这样的结论,那只能怪你并不真的了解巴菲特,或者说了解的只是那个媒体塑造的买入股票后一生持有的 “僵化”巴菲特。
谁说巴菲特不玩衍生品
在许多人心目中,巴菲特对衍生品是深恶痛绝的。这不仅在于巴菲特对于许多上市公司发放给高管的员工股权激励方式持批判态度,更因为巴菲特多年前那篇脍炙人口的短文《金融衍生品是大规模杀伤武器》。
是的,巴菲特不喜欢过于复杂的衍生品。在《2008年给股东的信》中,巴菲特曾提及过这样一段往事:当伯克希尔在1998年收购GeneralRe时,我们知道我们搞不定它同884个交易商达成的23218份衍生产品合约(其中很多交易商和衍生产品我们听都没听过)。因此我们决定不做这生意。尽管当我们选择退出时,我们不用承受任何压力,市场也很温和,大致完成这项任务仍用了我们五年时间,让我们蒙受了超过4亿美元的损失。离别之际,我们对这门生意的感觉正如一句乡村民谣歌词所唱:“在我了解你之前,我还更喜欢你些。 ”
一篇短文,再加上这段历史,让许多人产生了巴菲特不爱衍生产品的“错觉”。但若你看过巴菲特的传记,便会了解其实早在很早期,巴菲特就是衍生品爱好者了至少早在1993年,他就卖出过可口可乐的认沽期权赚取期权金。
衍生品也有价值投资
那么,巴菲特对于衍生品到底是怎样的一个态度呢?其实和其数十年在股票上的态度一样,就四个字价值投资。
在更早期《2006年给股东的信》中,巴菲特对这个问题就已经做出了解答:
为什么波克希尔现在还要跟这个有害物质一起厮混呢?答案是,衍生性金融商品也像股票及债券一样,常在价格与价值上出现离谱的偏差。因此,许多年来,波克希尔在衍生性合约的签订,一向是具有选择性的,在数量上不多,但有时金额却很庞大。
巴菲特怎么玩衍生品
那么,巴菲特在衍生品上是怎么进行价值投资的呢?在《2007年给股东的信》中,巴菲特简单介绍了其持有的94个衍生品。第一类是承担54个特定债券的违约风险;而第二类则是今次三季度衍生品亏损罪魁祸首的股票指数卖出期权。对于这部分,巴菲特如此介绍:第二类合约,涉及到我们卖出的,针对四种股票指数(标准普尔500指数,加上三种国外的指数)的各种卖出期权(putoption)合约。这些卖出期权的起始期限不是15年就是20年,它们会受到市场的影响。我们(通过卖出这样合约,)收到45亿美元的额外收入,也在年底,记录了46亿美元的负债。这些卖出期权合约只能在到期时,才会执行。它们的到期时间在2019年到2027年之间。届时,只有在上述的股票指数水平,低于签订卖出期权合约时的,我们才需要付钱出去。同样的,我相信这些合约,总体上将是盈利的。我们也将在持有这些合约的15或20年里,通过用卖出这些合约获得的收入去投资,获得丰厚的收益。
而在《2009年给股东的信》,巴菲特又补充了一个重要的细节:
只有少数合同要求我们无论如何交付抵押保证金。去年,股市和信用市场价位走低,我们的支付要求是17亿美元,只是我们拥有的衍生品相关浮存金的一小部分。当我们支付抵押保证金的时候,我们所支付的抵押品仍然在给我们赚钱。
巴菲特衍生品的纸面亏损
巴菲特的上述解释,其实已经足以了解他的操作手法了。为了简化,我们就假设巴菲特其实只卖出了针对S&P500指数的平价认沽期权,2007年S&P500指数大体在1400点上下盘整,我们假设期权的执行价就是1400点,同时我们假设期权的到期日是2019年和2027年之间的2023年。
这意味着假设到了2023年,若S&P500指数在1400点之下,那么巴菲特就必须支付当时点位与1400点相差部分的资金。我们用三季度S&P500指数从1320点下降至1131点这189点对应24.43亿元亏损估算,假设倒是S&P500指数跌至0点,那么巴菲特的最大亏损是180.96亿美元。但是别忘了,巴菲特之前可是收取了45亿美元的期权金,这笔钱巴菲特可以从2007年到2023年之间无偿运作,即使我们按照当时20年美国国债4.91%的年化收益计算,15年也足以将这笔钱增值至92.35亿美元,进一步降低巴菲特的风险。
更何况,到了2023年,S&P500指数还在1400点的可能性又有多大呢?我们可以做一个简单测算,目前1260点色S&P500指数对应的市盈率为13.41倍,即每股盈利93.96点。若S&P500指数的每股盈利能够按照4%的速度增长(尚低于GDP的增速),则每股盈利15年则增长至169.22点,这意味着1400点S&P500指数只相当于8.27倍的市盈率,你觉得这种情况的可能性有多大?毕竟即使是当下,市场给出的S&P500指数3-5年的利润年化增长仍有10.9%。
所以,期权到期时,巴菲特真正因为这些期权而需要支付额外资金结算的可能,相当之小。而在这之前,由于绝大多数合约都无需追加保证金,所以不过是财务报表上的“纸面亏损”。别忘了,巴菲特的这些合约,可是在次贷危机之前就开立的,可谓是久经考验。2008年整年,因为这些衍生品合约,伯尔希克哈撒韦账面亏损68.21亿美元,比今年三季度要多得多,但那又如何,2009年,巴菲特在这批衍生合约上又盈利了36.24亿美元。这些衍生品上的盈盈亏亏,虽然对伯尔希克哈撒韦的每股盈利有影响,但是对其实际经营和现金流并无任何影响,所以在巴菲特看来,真是标准的“浮云”而已。
逆向投资的大师智慧
逆向投资不仅仅表现在简单的方向感上,而且已经渗透到了你的灵魂深处,逆向思维是穿透现象挖掘本质,寻求真理的实践过程.说来简单,要真正做好,还需要从性格上的根本改变,经验上不断累积.
逆向投资的大师智慧
古罗马诗人贺拉斯说过:“许多现在衰落的将会复兴,许多现在荣耀的将会衰落。”正因如此,敢于逆向而为者往往并非不识时务逆历史潮流而动,而恰恰是他们拥有洞悉事物发展兴衰规律背后蕴藏玄机的大智慧。
“现代证券之父”格雷厄姆告诉我们:股票市场上绝大部分理论收益并不是那些处于连续繁荣的公司所创造的,而是那些经历大起大落的公司所创造的,是通过在股票低价时购进、高价时出售创造出来的。购买机会产生原因是整个市场的低迷及公众对个人股票的极端厌恶。必须要能确定现行令人失望的结果只是暂时的。
巴菲特堪称是逆向投资大师中的大师,他那句几乎人尽皆知的名言“在别人贪婪时恐惧,在别人恐惧时贪婪”,早已成为逆向投资的经典阐释。他还说过:“当人们对一些大环境事件的忧虑升到最高点时,事实上也就是我们作成交易的时机。”在所罗门债券危机事件时力挽狂澜,在美国运通卡发生危机时亲自到餐厅观察后继续买入股票,以及次贷危机暴跌后买入金融资产等等,都是巴菲特对逆向投资的身体力行和成功实践。
国际投资家罗杰斯如是讲述自己对逆向投资的理解:被人嘲笑是成功的关键。假如周遭的人都劝你不要做某件事,甚至嘲笑你根本不该去做,就可以把这件事当作可能成功的指标。与众人反向而行是很需要勇气的。靠自己研究,尽可能学习面对挑战的本事,自行判断信息的真伪并自己做决定。
戴维·德雷曼,美国知名价值型基金经理人,出版过《反向投资策略:市场胜利的心理学》和《反向投资策略:下一代,背离大众以跑赢大市》两本逆向投资著作的传奇逆向投资者,也曾这样说过:“我的头号投资选择是股票。人们现在所畏缩不敢投资的领域,作为反向投资者,我是很喜欢对其进行投资的。”
“金融狙击手”索罗斯语出惊人:“投资应选择两种目标:一是最好的公司;二是最差的公司。”他认为,一些行业中最差的公司,由于这类公司负债率高、经营不善,股价通常比较低,一旦业绩出现好转,会吸引市场资金的参与,反而容易获取超额收益。他最值得大家学习的投资经验正是从行业和政策的角度去挖掘这种逆向投资机会。如1972年,索罗斯瞄准了银行板块。当时银行业的信誉非常糟糕,管理非常落后,投资者中很少有人购买银行股票。索罗斯经过观察研究,发现从高等学府毕业的专业人才正成为新一代的银行家,他们正着手实行一系列的改革,银行盈利开始逐步上升,于是索罗斯果断地大量介入银行股票。一段时间以后,银行股票开始大幅上涨,索罗斯获得了50%的利润。
不过,也许正如投资大师塞思·卡拉曼所说,价值投资从本质上看,就是逆向投资,反之亦然。纯价值投资或者说逆向投资,就像一把玄铁重剑,只有功力达到一定境界的高手才能运用自如,否则很可能不仅战胜不了对手,反而一不小心把自己砍伤。
逆向投资流派的一位大师安东尼·波顿曾频频告诫同行,逆向投资最容易犯的一个错误就是买入过早,要有耐心。2008年就有许多人犯了这样的错误。一定要记得,当股票价值在不断下跌的时候,前景总是看起来越来越悲观,而媒体报道出来的经济新闻也总是越来越悲观,在最低的时候,前景看起来总是最糟糕的。而股票市场是一个非常好的体现经济周期的指针,在光明之前它总是最黑暗的。
把握机遇的能力来自于平时的积累,要成功运用逆向投资法克敌制胜,投资者也需具备一些特有的素质,其中最为关键的就是能力、勇气和耐心这三个方面。首先,投资者应该对行业的基本面有充分的认识,并对其未来的发展趋势有深入的了解,这是你能做出正确投资抉择的基础。其次,要有敢于挑战惯性思维的勇气,在一些关键时点,做出与普通大众不同的投资抉择。最后,超乎常人的耐心也是不可或缺的,逆向投资需要我们坚决摈弃那些急功近利的心态,无论是等待合适的介入机会还是之后的否极泰来。
逆向投资的大师智慧
古罗马诗人贺拉斯说过:“许多现在衰落的将会复兴,许多现在荣耀的将会衰落。”正因如此,敢于逆向而为者往往并非不识时务逆历史潮流而动,而恰恰是他们拥有洞悉事物发展兴衰规律背后蕴藏玄机的大智慧。
“现代证券之父”格雷厄姆告诉我们:股票市场上绝大部分理论收益并不是那些处于连续繁荣的公司所创造的,而是那些经历大起大落的公司所创造的,是通过在股票低价时购进、高价时出售创造出来的。购买机会产生原因是整个市场的低迷及公众对个人股票的极端厌恶。必须要能确定现行令人失望的结果只是暂时的。
巴菲特堪称是逆向投资大师中的大师,他那句几乎人尽皆知的名言“在别人贪婪时恐惧,在别人恐惧时贪婪”,早已成为逆向投资的经典阐释。他还说过:“当人们对一些大环境事件的忧虑升到最高点时,事实上也就是我们作成交易的时机。”在所罗门债券危机事件时力挽狂澜,在美国运通卡发生危机时亲自到餐厅观察后继续买入股票,以及次贷危机暴跌后买入金融资产等等,都是巴菲特对逆向投资的身体力行和成功实践。
国际投资家罗杰斯如是讲述自己对逆向投资的理解:被人嘲笑是成功的关键。假如周遭的人都劝你不要做某件事,甚至嘲笑你根本不该去做,就可以把这件事当作可能成功的指标。与众人反向而行是很需要勇气的。靠自己研究,尽可能学习面对挑战的本事,自行判断信息的真伪并自己做决定。
戴维·德雷曼,美国知名价值型基金经理人,出版过《反向投资策略:市场胜利的心理学》和《反向投资策略:下一代,背离大众以跑赢大市》两本逆向投资著作的传奇逆向投资者,也曾这样说过:“我的头号投资选择是股票。人们现在所畏缩不敢投资的领域,作为反向投资者,我是很喜欢对其进行投资的。”
“金融狙击手”索罗斯语出惊人:“投资应选择两种目标:一是最好的公司;二是最差的公司。”他认为,一些行业中最差的公司,由于这类公司负债率高、经营不善,股价通常比较低,一旦业绩出现好转,会吸引市场资金的参与,反而容易获取超额收益。他最值得大家学习的投资经验正是从行业和政策的角度去挖掘这种逆向投资机会。如1972年,索罗斯瞄准了银行板块。当时银行业的信誉非常糟糕,管理非常落后,投资者中很少有人购买银行股票。索罗斯经过观察研究,发现从高等学府毕业的专业人才正成为新一代的银行家,他们正着手实行一系列的改革,银行盈利开始逐步上升,于是索罗斯果断地大量介入银行股票。一段时间以后,银行股票开始大幅上涨,索罗斯获得了50%的利润。
不过,也许正如投资大师塞思·卡拉曼所说,价值投资从本质上看,就是逆向投资,反之亦然。纯价值投资或者说逆向投资,就像一把玄铁重剑,只有功力达到一定境界的高手才能运用自如,否则很可能不仅战胜不了对手,反而一不小心把自己砍伤。
逆向投资流派的一位大师安东尼·波顿曾频频告诫同行,逆向投资最容易犯的一个错误就是买入过早,要有耐心。2008年就有许多人犯了这样的错误。一定要记得,当股票价值在不断下跌的时候,前景总是看起来越来越悲观,而媒体报道出来的经济新闻也总是越来越悲观,在最低的时候,前景看起来总是最糟糕的。而股票市场是一个非常好的体现经济周期的指针,在光明之前它总是最黑暗的。
把握机遇的能力来自于平时的积累,要成功运用逆向投资法克敌制胜,投资者也需具备一些特有的素质,其中最为关键的就是能力、勇气和耐心这三个方面。首先,投资者应该对行业的基本面有充分的认识,并对其未来的发展趋势有深入的了解,这是你能做出正确投资抉择的基础。其次,要有敢于挑战惯性思维的勇气,在一些关键时点,做出与普通大众不同的投资抉择。最后,超乎常人的耐心也是不可或缺的,逆向投资需要我们坚决摈弃那些急功近利的心态,无论是等待合适的介入机会还是之后的否极泰来。
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
一个投机者的告白——德国投资大师科斯托兰尼
安德烈 科斯托兰尼(Andre Kostolany),德国知名投资大师,娴熟金融商品和证券市场的一切,被誉为「二十世纪股市见证人」、「本世纪金融史上最成功的投资者之一」。他在德国投资界的地位,有如美国的沃伦巴菲特。其著作有《证券心理学》、《一个投机者的告白》
有钱的人,可以投机,
钱少的人,不可以投机,
根本没钱的人,必须投机。
最后一句当然不完全正确。大家总是需要一定数量的钱,才能开始投机活动,但数量不一定要很多。在股票投资普及之前,德国流行一种观点,证券交易所只是富人的游乐场。这种看法完全错误。只要谁的看法正确,谁就有可能用蛮少的钱,创造可观利润。我说的「根本没钱」,是指钱少到连私人住宅都负担不起或无力养老的地步。
如果真的没钱,首先必须工作。在证券投机失败后,我好几次身无分文,甚至欠债,以至被迫重操旧业,作经纪人和顾问,赚取佣金,以脱离窘境。
我们凭什么投机?——只要有想象力,老的东西,甚至老骨董,都有机会再翻身。
先看看投机环境中的几种人:
经纪人:只管成交量,因为他按每笔交易向客户收佣金。他对你买卖任何一只股都有兴趣!
基金经理:几十亿资金的统治者,他们和经纪人一样,靠的是客户的资金在工作。经理人及一群手下作准备工作的分析师,挑出看好的股票、债券或原料,以获取报酬。整体来看,他们毫无成就,因为只有极少数的基金经理,能不断超越平均指数,获取更高利润。
金融巨子:大庄家。他们资产非常雄厚,总是全力以赴,投入所发起的交易活动,以确保自己获得多数,并策画合并和收购其它公司。他一旦拥有某家公司的股份,便积极干预公司的管理体系,或解散看不顺眼的管理阶层。面对各种激烈活动,他的生活变得十分不安。如果他开办企业,就会到证券交易所去筹措必要的资金。甚至他想掌控的那些公司,也是透过证券交易所取得控制权。他的目标总是集中在特定的交易中,他的买或卖都会导致大地震,影响整个证券市场。
套汇者:绝迹的投机人士。套汇指的是时间或空间上的投机行为。时间上的投机,指的是今天买,然后过一阵子用更高的价格卖出,或反过来,今天卖掉,以后再用便宜的价格买回来(即卖空)。另一种是空间上的投机,指的是同时在一个地方买,另一个地方卖。交易过程中,套汇者必须取得超过交易手续费的差价,才会获利。和传统的投机人士相比,套汇者的好处在没有任何风险。因为,只有当两个证券交易所出现差价时,套汇者才会委托经纪人进行交易。他事先就知道利润有多少,因此,套汇者必须专注在蝇头小利上,时时刻刻关注行情。
股市玩家:股市中的赌徒。他们永不会消失,而且只会愈来愈多,让我感到遗憾。我之所以如此称呼他们,乃是因为照我的定义,他们不配冠上投机家的称号,虽然一般大众和新闻记者都以此称呼他们。证券玩家连最小的指数波动都企图利用。他在股价一○一时,买进某种股票,然后在股价升到一○三时,就卖掉。接着,他再在指数九○时,买进另一种股票,然后在九一?五时,又再卖掉。
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投资者:股市长跑者。他们和股市玩家刚好相反。他买股票,然后留个几十年,当成养老金,或当成留给子女或孙子的财产。他从不看指数,对指数不感兴趣,即使股价崩盘,也任由他去。他将资金长期投资于股票,一直投资下去。即使萧条时期,也不减少股票的投资比率。
投机家:有远见的战略家,介于证券玩家和投资者之间。不同于投资者,投机家对各种新闻都感兴趣,但这并不表示,他会像证券玩家那样,对任何新闻都有反应。如果投机家对上涨的指数进行投机,但由于某个偶然事件,行情暂时下跌,例如,美国总统心脏病突发(艾森豪威尔总统一九五五年心脏病发),或南美遭受地震,这时投机家不会马上推翻自己的投机理念。只有当消息影响深远,动摇了预测基础,推翻原来的假设,才会重新规画。投机家不在意X和Y之间细微的指数波动,他只跟随趋势,即从A到B的变化角度。
有远见的投机家密切注意各种基本因素,如金融和贷款政策、利率、经济扩充、国际局势、贸易收支、经营报告等,不会受到次要的日常新闻影响。他制定周密的计划和策略,根据每天发生的事件进行调整。总而言之,投机者有想法,不管正不正确,毕竟是个想法。这是投机家和证券玩家的基本差异。
我该诚实建议每位读者加入投资者的行列。以平均水准来看,投资者的表现最好,因为即使是投机家,也只有少数是赢家,更不要去做玩家赌徒!
股市一切取决于一件事, 就看是傻瓜比股票多, 还是股票比傻瓜多!
我认为,长远来看,经济和证券市场所的发展方向相同,但在过程中,却有可能选择完全相反的方向。指数有什么道理?
每一天,证券评论员都费尽心思解释当天指数的变化,然而影响指数上扬或下跌的因素却难以胜数。证券市场像漂亮的女人或天气一样任性,擅长利用各种光怪陆离的魔术吸引猎物,大家对其不抱希望时,证券市场也一样冷淡对待。我建议大家应该冷静,不要在意证券市场喜怒无常的脾气,尤其不要为此寻找合乎逻辑的解释。
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评论员可能局限于三个因素,因为供过于求,证券交易走势疲软;或因为需求大于供给,证券交易行情坚挺,或因为供需平衡,证券交易没有变化。
从短期至中期来看,绝对不是好的股票一定看涨,不好的股票肯定下跌,情况可能完全相反。一家企业也许获利丰厚,可以支付红利,还有良好的发展前景,但只有需求大于供给时,才会在证券市场中看涨,这是证券交易逻辑的唯一条件。
我们可以这样解释,行情趋势要看卖方卖股票的情况,是否比买方买股票急迫。如果股票持有者迫于心理或物质上的压力,被迫出售股票,而资金所有者虽然想买,却无购买压力,行情就会下跌。
反之,如果资金所有者迫切寻找股票,而股票持有者并没有物质或心理上的压力,要出售股票,行情就会上涨。我一直记住这条准则,一切取决于供给和需求。我全部的证券交易理论都以此为基础。
这个事实每位证券交易人士都须铭记在心,否则就不会明白,为什么有时指数会出现完全不合逻辑的波动。
和平、富裕、稳定就是大调!
稳定应该是政治稳定,而不是货币价值稳定,才是最高目标。前德国总理施密特宁愿要5%的通货膨胀率,也不要5%的失业率!轻度通货膨胀根本不会危害经济。
不过话说回来,假如证券市场只受大环境影响,就会随着经济的发展缓慢向上涨。但我们知道证券市场在长期的经济成长过程中会多次反复大涨大跌。大涨之后,证券市场虽然很少跌回上涨前的水准,但在这段时间,行情将来回波动得非常厉害,主要受中期性因素影响。简单说那就是资金和人心!
必须市场中有足够多的资金,还要投资大众想买股票!两者都正,股指上扬;两个都负,股指下跌。一正一负,发展趋势就会持平,也就是说,证券市场的行情平淡、无趣,不会出现大幅波动。由此得出,同时也成为我的信念:货币+心理=发展趋势。
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股市很像二手车市场!
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每当汽车公司推出新车种时,汽车销售商便异常活跃,甚至在价格上对客户妥协,或免费提供特殊装备,这时二手车的价格就会下跌。反之,如果新车交货期要等上几星期或几个月,而且新车种并不吸引人,也根本不可能在价格上让步,这时二手车市场就会活跃起来,价格也随之攀升。
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股票便是资本市场上的二手车。如果资本市场充斥许多有趣的新上市股票,证券交易所的原上市股票就会整体下跌。但如果新股目标愈来愈少,剩余资金就又回流到原来的股票上。
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投资者分两类,固执的和犹豫的,胜利者是固执的人。
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和多数人相反,我所理解的市场技术不是图表、量能图、随机分析方法,或其它乱七八糟的东西。对我来说,技术状态只和一个问题有关:股票掌握在什么人手里?我把投资者分成两类:固执的和犹豫的。长期来看,胜利者多是那些固执得人,而股市玩家,多是犹豫的输家。两者区别何在?固执的投资者须具备四种要素:金钱、想法、耐心,还有运气!
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我的定义是,一个人是否有钱,关键不在于他有多少财产,而在资本是否完整无缺,有没有负债。过多的负载会很容易让你破产,只要你的一个操作失误就做到了!绝对不要借钱买股票!
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投资者必须相信自己的想法,至于想法是正确,还是错误,开始时无关紧要,重要的是必须三思而行,而且有想象力。如果已定出战略,便不可再受朋友影响,也不可因当时的气氛或时事而改变初衷,否则再天才的思虑,也帮不上忙。当然这需要信念!
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股市里赚钱,不是靠头脑,而是靠坐功。耐心也许是股市甚至任何一个投资市场里最重要的东西,谁缺乏耐心,就不要靠近股市。投机中赚的钱,是痛苦钱!如果交易中的各个要素都有效,剩下的只是时间问题,但大多数投资者都缺乏对当中发生的狂风暴雨处之泰然的耐心和毅力,他们一看到股指下跌,便立刻惊慌失措,卖掉所有股票。
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你当然也需要运气。战争、自然灾害、政局变动、新发明或骗局,都可能破坏投机的前提条件。例如,投资者把赌注押在生产减缓某种严重疾病,例如风湿病的制药企业上,但过没多入,一家和制药企业竞争的生物工程企业,却出人意料地发现治疗风湿病的药品,这时投资者的预测便永远不会应验。他的分析虽然正确,但治疗药品的发现彻底改变了前提条件,让这条件变得毫无价值,这是他无法预知的。除了金钱、想法和耐心外,固执的投资者还需要运气。只要缺少其中之一,都会马上变成犹豫的投资者!
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暴涨和崩盘是分不开的搭档,崩盘通常以暴涨为前导,而暴涨都以崩盘收尾。一再重复。
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你需要判断市场是处在哪个阶段!例如,在出现不利消息时,市场并没有下跌,就是市场出现超卖,行情已接近最低点的征兆。这时股票已掌握在固执的投资者手中,他们对不利消息不感兴趣。他们有自己的想法,相信会出现更好的时机,他们手中的股票都已付清,遂有耐心等待更有利的消息。
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相反地,市场对有利消息不再有反应,就是超买和行情暂时处在最高点的信号。在这种情况下,犹豫的投资者手里抓满股票,尽管有利多消息,他们也无法买进股票。固执的投资者虽然有现金,但在这样的行情下却不想买进。
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成交量提供了另一个讯息。如果行情下跌时,某一段时间里成交量很大,这表示有大量股票从犹豫的投资者手里,转移到固执的投资者手里。甚至可能发展成犹豫的投资者卖光了所有股票,这时股票正躺在固执的投资者的保险柜里。直到后来,指数上涨时,这些股票才会从保险柜里露出来。
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也就是说,如果成交量增加,行情仍然继续下跌时,就是已经接近下一次上涨起点的信号。但多数情况下,指数此时处在不合理的低点,这种局面应归咎于大众的歇斯底里和股票持有人的普遍抛售。这是行情过度下跌中的第三个阶段,在这个阶段,犹豫的投资者把所有的股票卖掉,甚至包括原来留下来最好的、最抗跌的股票。
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但当成交量小,且指数还继续下跌时,就表示市场前景堪虑。因为在这种情况下,股票还掌握在犹豫的投资者手里,他们还在等市场恢复元气,不过如果行情继续下跌,他们会突然恐惧起来,而把所有股票低价卖掉。
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我不同意一般所谓成交量小时,行情下滑并不重要的看法。赞成这种观点的人会说,大众在这种情况下并没有抛售股票。但是这没有说明任何问题,重要的是,股票还掌握在犹豫的投资者手里,他们今天没有卖掉股票,并不表示他们不会在明天、一个星期后,或一个月后,把所有的股票卖掉。
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相反地,当成交量愈来愈大,股票还不断看涨时,也是前景堪虑。因为成交量愈大,表示股市场愈容易受伤,因为这时证券市场刚好进入上涨的第三阶段。
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我也反对大家对成交量大时,即有利指数上涨的看法。大家认为,大众在这种情况下购买股票,是好现象。确实如此,但这只是就他们购买股票的这一天而言。我的意思是,那些犹豫的投资者买股票,真的是好现象吗?他们下个星期也会买股票吗?难道这些股票不会在下个月重新出现市场?犹豫的投资者不具有立刻把股票脱手的危险吗?
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反之,当成交量小时,如果指数看涨,这种情形就非常有利,虽然交易者会声称这种市场状况无足轻重。当然,因为经纪人只对大笔佣金感兴趣,所以他们认为成交量小的股票市场没有意义。然而,事实是股票还一直掌握在固执的投资者手里,并没有转移到犹豫的投资者手中,所以指数肯定还会继续看涨,也会吸引犹豫的投资者,而固执的投资者就等着把股票卖给犹豫的投资者。
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凡是证券交易所里人尽皆知的事,不会令我激动。
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经常有人问我,我的讯息和想法是从哪来的。我的回答很简单,其实,我不寻找讯息,而是发现讯息。我从不同的报纸搜集当天的新闻,我喜欢阅读的报纸是《国际前锋论坛报》,此外我听收音机、看电视。在读报过程中,可以发现对我来说重要的消息,通常是隐藏在字里行间的讯息。对于每个人都读到的大标题、企业消息、利润数据、利润预估和统计数字,我只了解一下而已,对这些并不特别感兴趣,因为这些讯息都已经反映在指数上了,而且就像指数一样,已经成为过去式。
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最没有意思的,就是那些和指数发展趋势有关的讯息,这些都是先有指数,才有讯息的。如果美元疲软,评论家便会根据某个可以用来消极解释美元的数字或事件,断章取义查阅最新经济统计数字和通告,最终总能找到一些东西,作为报告美元疲软的原因。假如美元坚挺,那些滑头的家伙也会找到理由。所以,这些报导和指数发展没有任何关系,事实上,美元之所以疲软,是因为当天没有足够的需求支撑供给,而卖主出售美元的实际动机则是无法解释的。
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股价永远不会等于公司实际价值,否则,就不会有证券交易所了。
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到目前为止,只有手中握有正确股票的人,才能赚取利润。没有哪个人的选股技术,可以好到即使股市普遍下跌也能赚到钱。如果指数趋势往下走,只有极少数的几种股票能摆脱盘势,充其量是成长型行业可以维持原来水准,这些行业中最好的企业也许能有发展,但是谁能事先知道,哪些企业是属于这类型?不论在任何地方,都无法指望指数迅速上涨。如果货币因素不利,大家也不会有多余的钱购买具潜力的股票,但如果证券市场趋势转变,影响货币的因素转为正面,这时成长型股票就会像火箭一般直线上升。
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在指数呈现上涨的过程中,如果流动资金充足,那些经历过黄金时代,或正处在于萎缩中的行业,也能保持良好的状态。不过一旦出现跌势,这些股票便会骤然下跌。所以结论是,在指数上涨过程中,即使是最差的投机人士也能赚到一些钱;而在指数下跌过程中,即使挑到好股票的人也赚不到钱。因此投资最看重的是普遍的趋势,其次才是选股,只有投资经历至少二十年之久的投资者,才用不着太关心整体发展趋势。
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如果整体发展趋势呈正面,投机人士便必须找出成长潜力最大、机会最好的股票。首先,必须知道哪些行业将从未来发展中获利,在发现行业后,还必须从中筛选出发展潜力最大的企业,再购买这些公司的股票。但是小心!诚如我提醒自己的原则:证券交易所中人尽皆知的事情不会让我激动。当大众发现成长型行业时,指数通常已非常高,包括今后几年,甚至几十年的增长,都已先行反应在指数上了。科斯托兰尼鸡蛋的原理当然也适用于具体行业,甚至是具体的股票。当整个市场还处于上涨过程中的第二阶段时,股票极有可能被超量购买。
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行业的繁荣和衰退,总是遵循相同的模式,开始时,出现大量新企业,这些企业生存的市场成长快速,即使最差的企业也能生存。随后该行业成长缓慢,速度减缓,对品质的要求提高。过程就像筛子,大多数企业无法克服发展过程中的缺陷,于是灭亡,或是被合并,只有具竞争力的企业生存下来。如果该行业再度出现衰退,便开始第二次筛选,所有企业都亏损,只有非常有实力的企业才能度过危机。最后,少数大集团共享市场。今天,大家称他们为全球玩家。
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许多分析家和经纪人在评价有价证券时,将之区分成投机型和保守型,我认为这种区分过于肤浅,甚至是错误的。重点不在大家投资股票的品质,而是投资的数量,如果一位大资本家用少量的钱,购买一种相对没有把握的科技股,那不算是投机,而是计算过风险的保守投资。但如果是一个小人物用超过自己资产的金额,也就是透过融资购买“最安全的”标准股,才是非常危险的投机。大家必须时刻牢记,投机型和保守型的区别,只是比例上的问题。
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同样,我认为分析家经常说的“继续持有”建议,完全是胡闹。如果证券账户,放着我已不会再买进的股票,那我便必须卖掉,有什么理由要保留显然已不会再上涨的股票?
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写给敢做敢为的人
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十律
1、有主见,三思后再决定是否应该买进,如果是,在哪里,什么行业,哪个国家?
2、要有足够的资金,以免遭受压力。
3、要有耐心,因为任何事情都不可预期,发展方向都和大家想象的不同。
4、如果相信自己的判断,便必须坚定不移。
5、要灵活,并时刻思考到想法中可能的错误。
6、如果看到出现新的局面,应该卖出。
7、不时察看购买的股票清单,并检查现在还可买进哪些股票。
8、只有看到远大的发展前景时,才可买进。
9、考虑所有风险,甚至是不可能出现的风险,也就是说,要时刻想到意想不到的因素。
10、即使自己是对的,也要保持谦逊。
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十戒
1、不要跟着建议跑,不要想能听到秘密讯息。
2、不要相信卖主知道他们为什么要卖,或买主知道自己为什么要买,也就是说,不要相信他们比自己知道的多。
3、不要想把赔掉的再赚回来。
4、不要考虑过去的指数。
5、不要躺在有价证券上睡大觉,不要因为期望达到更佳的指数,而忘掉他们,也就是说,不要不做决定。
6、不要不断观察变化细微的指数,不要对任何风吹草动作出反应。
7、不要在刚刚赚钱或赔钱时做最后结论。
8、不要只想获利就卖掉股票。
9、不要在情绪上受政治好恶的影响。
10、获利时,不要过分自负。
有钱的人,可以投机,
钱少的人,不可以投机,
根本没钱的人,必须投机。
最后一句当然不完全正确。大家总是需要一定数量的钱,才能开始投机活动,但数量不一定要很多。在股票投资普及之前,德国流行一种观点,证券交易所只是富人的游乐场。这种看法完全错误。只要谁的看法正确,谁就有可能用蛮少的钱,创造可观利润。我说的「根本没钱」,是指钱少到连私人住宅都负担不起或无力养老的地步。
如果真的没钱,首先必须工作。在证券投机失败后,我好几次身无分文,甚至欠债,以至被迫重操旧业,作经纪人和顾问,赚取佣金,以脱离窘境。
我们凭什么投机?——只要有想象力,老的东西,甚至老骨董,都有机会再翻身。
先看看投机环境中的几种人:
经纪人:只管成交量,因为他按每笔交易向客户收佣金。他对你买卖任何一只股都有兴趣!
基金经理:几十亿资金的统治者,他们和经纪人一样,靠的是客户的资金在工作。经理人及一群手下作准备工作的分析师,挑出看好的股票、债券或原料,以获取报酬。整体来看,他们毫无成就,因为只有极少数的基金经理,能不断超越平均指数,获取更高利润。
金融巨子:大庄家。他们资产非常雄厚,总是全力以赴,投入所发起的交易活动,以确保自己获得多数,并策画合并和收购其它公司。他一旦拥有某家公司的股份,便积极干预公司的管理体系,或解散看不顺眼的管理阶层。面对各种激烈活动,他的生活变得十分不安。如果他开办企业,就会到证券交易所去筹措必要的资金。甚至他想掌控的那些公司,也是透过证券交易所取得控制权。他的目标总是集中在特定的交易中,他的买或卖都会导致大地震,影响整个证券市场。
套汇者:绝迹的投机人士。套汇指的是时间或空间上的投机行为。时间上的投机,指的是今天买,然后过一阵子用更高的价格卖出,或反过来,今天卖掉,以后再用便宜的价格买回来(即卖空)。另一种是空间上的投机,指的是同时在一个地方买,另一个地方卖。交易过程中,套汇者必须取得超过交易手续费的差价,才会获利。和传统的投机人士相比,套汇者的好处在没有任何风险。因为,只有当两个证券交易所出现差价时,套汇者才会委托经纪人进行交易。他事先就知道利润有多少,因此,套汇者必须专注在蝇头小利上,时时刻刻关注行情。
股市玩家:股市中的赌徒。他们永不会消失,而且只会愈来愈多,让我感到遗憾。我之所以如此称呼他们,乃是因为照我的定义,他们不配冠上投机家的称号,虽然一般大众和新闻记者都以此称呼他们。证券玩家连最小的指数波动都企图利用。他在股价一○一时,买进某种股票,然后在股价升到一○三时,就卖掉。接着,他再在指数九○时,买进另一种股票,然后在九一?五时,又再卖掉。
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投资者:股市长跑者。他们和股市玩家刚好相反。他买股票,然后留个几十年,当成养老金,或当成留给子女或孙子的财产。他从不看指数,对指数不感兴趣,即使股价崩盘,也任由他去。他将资金长期投资于股票,一直投资下去。即使萧条时期,也不减少股票的投资比率。
投机家:有远见的战略家,介于证券玩家和投资者之间。不同于投资者,投机家对各种新闻都感兴趣,但这并不表示,他会像证券玩家那样,对任何新闻都有反应。如果投机家对上涨的指数进行投机,但由于某个偶然事件,行情暂时下跌,例如,美国总统心脏病突发(艾森豪威尔总统一九五五年心脏病发),或南美遭受地震,这时投机家不会马上推翻自己的投机理念。只有当消息影响深远,动摇了预测基础,推翻原来的假设,才会重新规画。投机家不在意X和Y之间细微的指数波动,他只跟随趋势,即从A到B的变化角度。
有远见的投机家密切注意各种基本因素,如金融和贷款政策、利率、经济扩充、国际局势、贸易收支、经营报告等,不会受到次要的日常新闻影响。他制定周密的计划和策略,根据每天发生的事件进行调整。总而言之,投机者有想法,不管正不正确,毕竟是个想法。这是投机家和证券玩家的基本差异。
我该诚实建议每位读者加入投资者的行列。以平均水准来看,投资者的表现最好,因为即使是投机家,也只有少数是赢家,更不要去做玩家赌徒!
股市一切取决于一件事, 就看是傻瓜比股票多, 还是股票比傻瓜多!
我认为,长远来看,经济和证券市场所的发展方向相同,但在过程中,却有可能选择完全相反的方向。指数有什么道理?
每一天,证券评论员都费尽心思解释当天指数的变化,然而影响指数上扬或下跌的因素却难以胜数。证券市场像漂亮的女人或天气一样任性,擅长利用各种光怪陆离的魔术吸引猎物,大家对其不抱希望时,证券市场也一样冷淡对待。我建议大家应该冷静,不要在意证券市场喜怒无常的脾气,尤其不要为此寻找合乎逻辑的解释。
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评论员可能局限于三个因素,因为供过于求,证券交易走势疲软;或因为需求大于供给,证券交易行情坚挺,或因为供需平衡,证券交易没有变化。
从短期至中期来看,绝对不是好的股票一定看涨,不好的股票肯定下跌,情况可能完全相反。一家企业也许获利丰厚,可以支付红利,还有良好的发展前景,但只有需求大于供给时,才会在证券市场中看涨,这是证券交易逻辑的唯一条件。
我们可以这样解释,行情趋势要看卖方卖股票的情况,是否比买方买股票急迫。如果股票持有者迫于心理或物质上的压力,被迫出售股票,而资金所有者虽然想买,却无购买压力,行情就会下跌。
反之,如果资金所有者迫切寻找股票,而股票持有者并没有物质或心理上的压力,要出售股票,行情就会上涨。我一直记住这条准则,一切取决于供给和需求。我全部的证券交易理论都以此为基础。
这个事实每位证券交易人士都须铭记在心,否则就不会明白,为什么有时指数会出现完全不合逻辑的波动。
和平、富裕、稳定就是大调!
稳定应该是政治稳定,而不是货币价值稳定,才是最高目标。前德国总理施密特宁愿要5%的通货膨胀率,也不要5%的失业率!轻度通货膨胀根本不会危害经济。
不过话说回来,假如证券市场只受大环境影响,就会随着经济的发展缓慢向上涨。但我们知道证券市场在长期的经济成长过程中会多次反复大涨大跌。大涨之后,证券市场虽然很少跌回上涨前的水准,但在这段时间,行情将来回波动得非常厉害,主要受中期性因素影响。简单说那就是资金和人心!
必须市场中有足够多的资金,还要投资大众想买股票!两者都正,股指上扬;两个都负,股指下跌。一正一负,发展趋势就会持平,也就是说,证券市场的行情平淡、无趣,不会出现大幅波动。由此得出,同时也成为我的信念:货币+心理=发展趋势。
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股市很像二手车市场!
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每当汽车公司推出新车种时,汽车销售商便异常活跃,甚至在价格上对客户妥协,或免费提供特殊装备,这时二手车的价格就会下跌。反之,如果新车交货期要等上几星期或几个月,而且新车种并不吸引人,也根本不可能在价格上让步,这时二手车市场就会活跃起来,价格也随之攀升。
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股票便是资本市场上的二手车。如果资本市场充斥许多有趣的新上市股票,证券交易所的原上市股票就会整体下跌。但如果新股目标愈来愈少,剩余资金就又回流到原来的股票上。
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投资者分两类,固执的和犹豫的,胜利者是固执的人。
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和多数人相反,我所理解的市场技术不是图表、量能图、随机分析方法,或其它乱七八糟的东西。对我来说,技术状态只和一个问题有关:股票掌握在什么人手里?我把投资者分成两类:固执的和犹豫的。长期来看,胜利者多是那些固执得人,而股市玩家,多是犹豫的输家。两者区别何在?固执的投资者须具备四种要素:金钱、想法、耐心,还有运气!
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我的定义是,一个人是否有钱,关键不在于他有多少财产,而在资本是否完整无缺,有没有负债。过多的负载会很容易让你破产,只要你的一个操作失误就做到了!绝对不要借钱买股票!
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投资者必须相信自己的想法,至于想法是正确,还是错误,开始时无关紧要,重要的是必须三思而行,而且有想象力。如果已定出战略,便不可再受朋友影响,也不可因当时的气氛或时事而改变初衷,否则再天才的思虑,也帮不上忙。当然这需要信念!
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股市里赚钱,不是靠头脑,而是靠坐功。耐心也许是股市甚至任何一个投资市场里最重要的东西,谁缺乏耐心,就不要靠近股市。投机中赚的钱,是痛苦钱!如果交易中的各个要素都有效,剩下的只是时间问题,但大多数投资者都缺乏对当中发生的狂风暴雨处之泰然的耐心和毅力,他们一看到股指下跌,便立刻惊慌失措,卖掉所有股票。
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你当然也需要运气。战争、自然灾害、政局变动、新发明或骗局,都可能破坏投机的前提条件。例如,投资者把赌注押在生产减缓某种严重疾病,例如风湿病的制药企业上,但过没多入,一家和制药企业竞争的生物工程企业,却出人意料地发现治疗风湿病的药品,这时投资者的预测便永远不会应验。他的分析虽然正确,但治疗药品的发现彻底改变了前提条件,让这条件变得毫无价值,这是他无法预知的。除了金钱、想法和耐心外,固执的投资者还需要运气。只要缺少其中之一,都会马上变成犹豫的投资者!
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暴涨和崩盘是分不开的搭档,崩盘通常以暴涨为前导,而暴涨都以崩盘收尾。一再重复。
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你需要判断市场是处在哪个阶段!例如,在出现不利消息时,市场并没有下跌,就是市场出现超卖,行情已接近最低点的征兆。这时股票已掌握在固执的投资者手中,他们对不利消息不感兴趣。他们有自己的想法,相信会出现更好的时机,他们手中的股票都已付清,遂有耐心等待更有利的消息。
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相反地,市场对有利消息不再有反应,就是超买和行情暂时处在最高点的信号。在这种情况下,犹豫的投资者手里抓满股票,尽管有利多消息,他们也无法买进股票。固执的投资者虽然有现金,但在这样的行情下却不想买进。
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成交量提供了另一个讯息。如果行情下跌时,某一段时间里成交量很大,这表示有大量股票从犹豫的投资者手里,转移到固执的投资者手里。甚至可能发展成犹豫的投资者卖光了所有股票,这时股票正躺在固执的投资者的保险柜里。直到后来,指数上涨时,这些股票才会从保险柜里露出来。
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也就是说,如果成交量增加,行情仍然继续下跌时,就是已经接近下一次上涨起点的信号。但多数情况下,指数此时处在不合理的低点,这种局面应归咎于大众的歇斯底里和股票持有人的普遍抛售。这是行情过度下跌中的第三个阶段,在这个阶段,犹豫的投资者把所有的股票卖掉,甚至包括原来留下来最好的、最抗跌的股票。
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但当成交量小,且指数还继续下跌时,就表示市场前景堪虑。因为在这种情况下,股票还掌握在犹豫的投资者手里,他们还在等市场恢复元气,不过如果行情继续下跌,他们会突然恐惧起来,而把所有股票低价卖掉。
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我不同意一般所谓成交量小时,行情下滑并不重要的看法。赞成这种观点的人会说,大众在这种情况下并没有抛售股票。但是这没有说明任何问题,重要的是,股票还掌握在犹豫的投资者手里,他们今天没有卖掉股票,并不表示他们不会在明天、一个星期后,或一个月后,把所有的股票卖掉。
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相反地,当成交量愈来愈大,股票还不断看涨时,也是前景堪虑。因为成交量愈大,表示股市场愈容易受伤,因为这时证券市场刚好进入上涨的第三阶段。
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我也反对大家对成交量大时,即有利指数上涨的看法。大家认为,大众在这种情况下购买股票,是好现象。确实如此,但这只是就他们购买股票的这一天而言。我的意思是,那些犹豫的投资者买股票,真的是好现象吗?他们下个星期也会买股票吗?难道这些股票不会在下个月重新出现市场?犹豫的投资者不具有立刻把股票脱手的危险吗?
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反之,当成交量小时,如果指数看涨,这种情形就非常有利,虽然交易者会声称这种市场状况无足轻重。当然,因为经纪人只对大笔佣金感兴趣,所以他们认为成交量小的股票市场没有意义。然而,事实是股票还一直掌握在固执的投资者手里,并没有转移到犹豫的投资者手中,所以指数肯定还会继续看涨,也会吸引犹豫的投资者,而固执的投资者就等着把股票卖给犹豫的投资者。
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凡是证券交易所里人尽皆知的事,不会令我激动。
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经常有人问我,我的讯息和想法是从哪来的。我的回答很简单,其实,我不寻找讯息,而是发现讯息。我从不同的报纸搜集当天的新闻,我喜欢阅读的报纸是《国际前锋论坛报》,此外我听收音机、看电视。在读报过程中,可以发现对我来说重要的消息,通常是隐藏在字里行间的讯息。对于每个人都读到的大标题、企业消息、利润数据、利润预估和统计数字,我只了解一下而已,对这些并不特别感兴趣,因为这些讯息都已经反映在指数上了,而且就像指数一样,已经成为过去式。
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最没有意思的,就是那些和指数发展趋势有关的讯息,这些都是先有指数,才有讯息的。如果美元疲软,评论家便会根据某个可以用来消极解释美元的数字或事件,断章取义查阅最新经济统计数字和通告,最终总能找到一些东西,作为报告美元疲软的原因。假如美元坚挺,那些滑头的家伙也会找到理由。所以,这些报导和指数发展没有任何关系,事实上,美元之所以疲软,是因为当天没有足够的需求支撑供给,而卖主出售美元的实际动机则是无法解释的。
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股价永远不会等于公司实际价值,否则,就不会有证券交易所了。
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到目前为止,只有手中握有正确股票的人,才能赚取利润。没有哪个人的选股技术,可以好到即使股市普遍下跌也能赚到钱。如果指数趋势往下走,只有极少数的几种股票能摆脱盘势,充其量是成长型行业可以维持原来水准,这些行业中最好的企业也许能有发展,但是谁能事先知道,哪些企业是属于这类型?不论在任何地方,都无法指望指数迅速上涨。如果货币因素不利,大家也不会有多余的钱购买具潜力的股票,但如果证券市场趋势转变,影响货币的因素转为正面,这时成长型股票就会像火箭一般直线上升。
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在指数呈现上涨的过程中,如果流动资金充足,那些经历过黄金时代,或正处在于萎缩中的行业,也能保持良好的状态。不过一旦出现跌势,这些股票便会骤然下跌。所以结论是,在指数上涨过程中,即使是最差的投机人士也能赚到一些钱;而在指数下跌过程中,即使挑到好股票的人也赚不到钱。因此投资最看重的是普遍的趋势,其次才是选股,只有投资经历至少二十年之久的投资者,才用不着太关心整体发展趋势。
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如果整体发展趋势呈正面,投机人士便必须找出成长潜力最大、机会最好的股票。首先,必须知道哪些行业将从未来发展中获利,在发现行业后,还必须从中筛选出发展潜力最大的企业,再购买这些公司的股票。但是小心!诚如我提醒自己的原则:证券交易所中人尽皆知的事情不会让我激动。当大众发现成长型行业时,指数通常已非常高,包括今后几年,甚至几十年的增长,都已先行反应在指数上了。科斯托兰尼鸡蛋的原理当然也适用于具体行业,甚至是具体的股票。当整个市场还处于上涨过程中的第二阶段时,股票极有可能被超量购买。
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行业的繁荣和衰退,总是遵循相同的模式,开始时,出现大量新企业,这些企业生存的市场成长快速,即使最差的企业也能生存。随后该行业成长缓慢,速度减缓,对品质的要求提高。过程就像筛子,大多数企业无法克服发展过程中的缺陷,于是灭亡,或是被合并,只有具竞争力的企业生存下来。如果该行业再度出现衰退,便开始第二次筛选,所有企业都亏损,只有非常有实力的企业才能度过危机。最后,少数大集团共享市场。今天,大家称他们为全球玩家。
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许多分析家和经纪人在评价有价证券时,将之区分成投机型和保守型,我认为这种区分过于肤浅,甚至是错误的。重点不在大家投资股票的品质,而是投资的数量,如果一位大资本家用少量的钱,购买一种相对没有把握的科技股,那不算是投机,而是计算过风险的保守投资。但如果是一个小人物用超过自己资产的金额,也就是透过融资购买“最安全的”标准股,才是非常危险的投机。大家必须时刻牢记,投机型和保守型的区别,只是比例上的问题。
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同样,我认为分析家经常说的“继续持有”建议,完全是胡闹。如果证券账户,放着我已不会再买进的股票,那我便必须卖掉,有什么理由要保留显然已不会再上涨的股票?
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写给敢做敢为的人
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十律
1、有主见,三思后再决定是否应该买进,如果是,在哪里,什么行业,哪个国家?
2、要有足够的资金,以免遭受压力。
3、要有耐心,因为任何事情都不可预期,发展方向都和大家想象的不同。
4、如果相信自己的判断,便必须坚定不移。
5、要灵活,并时刻思考到想法中可能的错误。
6、如果看到出现新的局面,应该卖出。
7、不时察看购买的股票清单,并检查现在还可买进哪些股票。
8、只有看到远大的发展前景时,才可买进。
9、考虑所有风险,甚至是不可能出现的风险,也就是说,要时刻想到意想不到的因素。
10、即使自己是对的,也要保持谦逊。
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十戒
1、不要跟着建议跑,不要想能听到秘密讯息。
2、不要相信卖主知道他们为什么要卖,或买主知道自己为什么要买,也就是说,不要相信他们比自己知道的多。
3、不要想把赔掉的再赚回来。
4、不要考虑过去的指数。
5、不要躺在有价证券上睡大觉,不要因为期望达到更佳的指数,而忘掉他们,也就是说,不要不做决定。
6、不要不断观察变化细微的指数,不要对任何风吹草动作出反应。
7、不要在刚刚赚钱或赔钱时做最后结论。
8、不要只想获利就卖掉股票。
9、不要在情绪上受政治好恶的影响。
10、获利时,不要过分自负。
投資自己創造投機未來
缺乏資金的人簽樂透,擁有資本的人炒股票!在投機的市場裡,每個人都自稱投資客。只不過前者所購買的很容易變成廢紙,而後者一不小心便會成為壁紙。在投機市場沒有專家,只有贏家和輸家,而最後拿走最多的通常是莊家。
安德烈.科斯托蘭尼是著名的投資專家,一生富裕、優雅、從容,他認為有比錢更重要的東西,那就是享受美食、上等葡萄酒、漂亮女人、還有音樂等,但是這一些通常要靠足夠的錢來完成,他不會為了錢而去賺錢,而是為了成就上述的生活,他選擇一種獲取財富的方式。有德國華倫.巴菲特之稱的他說:「我是投機人士,始終如一。」
出生於1906年的匈牙利,在1999年因病辭世的科斯托蘭尼,一生歷經80年的投資生涯,成為20世紀最重要的投資典範。在他影響新聞界三十五年的生涯中,最著名的建議,就是要投資者到藥局買安眠藥吃,然後買下各種績優股,睡上幾年,再從睡夢中醒來,最後必將驚喜連連。
曾經家境富裕的他,因為父母親對於他的教育非常重視,所以後來雖然家道中落,也因為他完整的教育,加上他個人的聰明才智,讓雙親的財務脫離負債的窘困,使得父母親兩人晚年的生活得以輕鬆悠閒的過日子。因此他給年輕父母最明智的建議便是:「把錢投資在子女的教育上!」
關於書中有很多對於金錢與投資和投機的金句,令人不覺莞爾,大叫心有戚戚焉。
「雖然沒人談錢,但所有人都想著錢。」
「有一個人告訴我,每當他在櫃檯清點現金,而且收入很多時,他都能感到自己的性慾蠢蠢欲動。」
「幸好,有人不光擁有錢,還會身體力行。他們享受生活,不僅滿足於研究菜單,而且享受美食。」
「金錢能彌補不幸,例如身體殘疾、醜陋等。對於出身微賤,對他而言,錢可以代替祖先。」
「對於其他人來說,金錢意味著醫療照顧、健康和長壽。隨著年事漸高,我愈來愈懂得金錢的價值。但最重要的是,金錢讓人獨立,對我而言,這是健康之外最大的特權了。」
「我和多數人不同,如果女人因為錢而愛上男人,我認為並不可恥;金錢代表他的成就,所以,她受到吸引。」
「錢,屬於狂熱追求金錢的人。一言以蔽之,他必須瘋狂愛錢,又必須冷靜對待錢。」
「投機是種藝術,而不是科學。」
「有錢的人,可以投機;錢少的人,不可以投機;根本沒錢的人,必須投機。」
「證券交易所裡沒有輸不掉的財產。」
「真正的投機家是思考的人,但很多人卻認為投機家是不用工作的人。」
「任何學校都教不出投機家,他的工具,除了經驗外,還是經驗。」
「即使電腦和網路也未改變任何東西,投機的背後總是躲著一位優缺點兼備的人。」
「你看看周圍,這裡的一切都取決於一件事,就看這裡的傻瓜比股票多,還是股票比傻瓜多。」
「固執的投資者須具備四種要素:金錢、想法、耐心,還有勇氣。」
「絕對不要借錢買股票。」
「大家在證券交易所裡賺錢,不是靠頭腦,而是靠坐功。耐心也許是證券交易所裡最重要的東西。」
「投機中賺的錢是痛苦錢,先有痛苦,然後才有錢。如果已經蒙受損失,便必須承認,把帳結清,馬上從零開始。」
「一名投機家是否成功,只有他的遺產繼承人才能判斷。」
閱讀這本書,心中是拍案叫絕的!套句蔡康永的話,「他為什麼不是我爸!」事實上,他所教導的一些觀念很簡單,其實就是要我們正視金錢的重要性,與對投資的態度。沒有人希望自己是窮人,但富有的卻常常是別人。看著滿街高級進口轎車亂竄,上億豪宅門庭若市,富貴的生活也許不是適合每一個人,但是你敢說你從來沒想過嗎?
不要老是偷偷簽樂透了,該好好正視你的工作,還有你的理財方式,從現在為不帶給下一代負擔而努力!也許你對你的子女說:「孩子,我要你比我更強!」然而,你的孩子卻說:「爸媽,不要讓我輸在起跑點上!」是的,透過科斯托蘭尼的書,我終於瞭解望「己」成龍的重要,而你呢?
安德烈.科斯托蘭尼是著名的投資專家,一生富裕、優雅、從容,他認為有比錢更重要的東西,那就是享受美食、上等葡萄酒、漂亮女人、還有音樂等,但是這一些通常要靠足夠的錢來完成,他不會為了錢而去賺錢,而是為了成就上述的生活,他選擇一種獲取財富的方式。有德國華倫.巴菲特之稱的他說:「我是投機人士,始終如一。」
出生於1906年的匈牙利,在1999年因病辭世的科斯托蘭尼,一生歷經80年的投資生涯,成為20世紀最重要的投資典範。在他影響新聞界三十五年的生涯中,最著名的建議,就是要投資者到藥局買安眠藥吃,然後買下各種績優股,睡上幾年,再從睡夢中醒來,最後必將驚喜連連。
曾經家境富裕的他,因為父母親對於他的教育非常重視,所以後來雖然家道中落,也因為他完整的教育,加上他個人的聰明才智,讓雙親的財務脫離負債的窘困,使得父母親兩人晚年的生活得以輕鬆悠閒的過日子。因此他給年輕父母最明智的建議便是:「把錢投資在子女的教育上!」
關於書中有很多對於金錢與投資和投機的金句,令人不覺莞爾,大叫心有戚戚焉。
「雖然沒人談錢,但所有人都想著錢。」
「有一個人告訴我,每當他在櫃檯清點現金,而且收入很多時,他都能感到自己的性慾蠢蠢欲動。」
「幸好,有人不光擁有錢,還會身體力行。他們享受生活,不僅滿足於研究菜單,而且享受美食。」
「金錢能彌補不幸,例如身體殘疾、醜陋等。對於出身微賤,對他而言,錢可以代替祖先。」
「對於其他人來說,金錢意味著醫療照顧、健康和長壽。隨著年事漸高,我愈來愈懂得金錢的價值。但最重要的是,金錢讓人獨立,對我而言,這是健康之外最大的特權了。」
「我和多數人不同,如果女人因為錢而愛上男人,我認為並不可恥;金錢代表他的成就,所以,她受到吸引。」
「錢,屬於狂熱追求金錢的人。一言以蔽之,他必須瘋狂愛錢,又必須冷靜對待錢。」
「投機是種藝術,而不是科學。」
「有錢的人,可以投機;錢少的人,不可以投機;根本沒錢的人,必須投機。」
「證券交易所裡沒有輸不掉的財產。」
「真正的投機家是思考的人,但很多人卻認為投機家是不用工作的人。」
「任何學校都教不出投機家,他的工具,除了經驗外,還是經驗。」
「即使電腦和網路也未改變任何東西,投機的背後總是躲著一位優缺點兼備的人。」
「你看看周圍,這裡的一切都取決於一件事,就看這裡的傻瓜比股票多,還是股票比傻瓜多。」
「固執的投資者須具備四種要素:金錢、想法、耐心,還有勇氣。」
「絕對不要借錢買股票。」
「大家在證券交易所裡賺錢,不是靠頭腦,而是靠坐功。耐心也許是證券交易所裡最重要的東西。」
「投機中賺的錢是痛苦錢,先有痛苦,然後才有錢。如果已經蒙受損失,便必須承認,把帳結清,馬上從零開始。」
「一名投機家是否成功,只有他的遺產繼承人才能判斷。」
閱讀這本書,心中是拍案叫絕的!套句蔡康永的話,「他為什麼不是我爸!」事實上,他所教導的一些觀念很簡單,其實就是要我們正視金錢的重要性,與對投資的態度。沒有人希望自己是窮人,但富有的卻常常是別人。看著滿街高級進口轎車亂竄,上億豪宅門庭若市,富貴的生活也許不是適合每一個人,但是你敢說你從來沒想過嗎?
不要老是偷偷簽樂透了,該好好正視你的工作,還有你的理財方式,從現在為不帶給下一代負擔而努力!也許你對你的子女說:「孩子,我要你比我更強!」然而,你的孩子卻說:「爸媽,不要讓我輸在起跑點上!」是的,透過科斯托蘭尼的書,我終於瞭解望「己」成龍的重要,而你呢?
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
管理風險,勇敢作大夢!
每個投資大師,對人性都有著深沈的了解,他們雖然不是生涯規劃專家,但他們闖蕩股海多年所淬練出的生存法則,有時往往更貼近真實的世界。
今年23歲、正在找尋人生第一份工作的社會新鮮人小葉,日前收到兩家公司的錄取通知單,開出的薪水差不多,但A公司工作時間與內容固定,不少A公司員工都是一做就到退休;B公司的工作則是變化性、挑戰性都高。小葉在兩者間掙扎許久,最後選擇了A公司,他說,雖然心裡屬意B公司工作內容的多元化,但他想:「人生穩定一點,總比有太多未知數來得安全。」
小葉的爸媽很支持他的決定,認為安穩平順的道路比遍地荊棘的道路好走得多,不過看在投資專家眼裡,卻說:「不分青紅皂白往前衝固然太冒險,但是安於穩定的想法,有時比敢冒險的心態更加危險。」
投資大師啟示錄1
安於穩定是人生最大風險
風險與報酬像一對孿生子,想追求高報酬,就要敢於去冒險,不只金融投資是如此,人生成就也是如此。
被譽為「20世紀股市見證人」、「本世紀金融史最成功的投資者之一」,有德國的華倫巴菲特(Warren Buffet)之稱的德國知名投資大師安德列‧科斯托蘭尼(Andre Kostolany)曾說:「一種股票最多可能上漲1,000%甚至10,000%,但最多只能下跌100%。」
不論投資或人生,勇敢去冒險嘗試,頂多賠光本金,若成功卻可賺進千百倍的本金,「下檔空間有限,上檔空間無窮」。尤其是年輕人,根本沒有什麼可以損失的,更值得奮力一搏。
過度保守者與成功無緣
不過正如「獵豹財務長」部落格版主、財經作家郭恭克觀察的,不少投資人只求「小賺小賠」,只要漲跌超過買進成本一定比例,立刻出清持股。在投資市場裡,過度保守的心態雖不至於慘賠,但終究難賺大錢。反映到人生規劃,道理正好互相輝映,過度保守害怕風險,一心追求安穩鐵飯碗的下場,就是離成功越來越遠,也放棄了大放異采的機會。
在網路以「總幹事」筆名開了「總幹事投資筆記—耕讀生活」部落格,1年多就累積超過1,000萬人次瀏覽的投資專家兼財經作家黃國華說:「年紀輕輕就陷於穩定的人最危險,因為他們明明最有本錢可以揮霍,可是他們卻不做。」
黃國華口中的揮霍不等於任性胡來,他說:「20多歲時學習能力正強,擁有的選擇次數也多,可以多方嘗試、多冒險、多學習,錯了都還有機會重來。」
錯失了發掘自己不同可能性的機會,人生的可看性就會縮到只剩一丁點。郭恭克認為,以前的時代,只要選對公司,待到退休都不是問題,現今市場變動劇烈,老闆說裁就裁,公司說倒就倒,「你期待穩定,職場不見得會給你要的穩定。」
投資大師啟示錄2
做好最壞的打算再賭
人稱「金融巨鱷」、曾榮登《金融世界雜誌》華爾街收入排行榜首的索羅斯(George Soros)說:「冒險是生存的必須。」人生是該放手一搏,但面對未知的風險,特別是當自己不再是20來歲的年輕小伙子,人生沒有太多重來機會的人,該怎麼將風險降至最低?
答案是「做好最壞的打算後再賭」。
擁有17年財經工作資歷、曾經是讓人稱羨的上市公司財務長,郭恭克在3年前選擇離開職場,現在的他沒有公司一個月給他10幾萬薪水,卻靠著投資專業讓他累積了更多財富,他說:「你大可以選擇辭掉你的老闆,但你得先想清楚:沒有了固定薪水,還有沒有辦法養活你自己?」
黃國華說:「人生可以賭,但你要知道賭下去會失去或得到什麼再來賭。」在金融業工作多年,29歲年薪就超過百萬,還曾經官拜證券公司副總,黃國華在2002年卻告別高位,轉身成為專職投資人與財經作家,他說:「我知道我離開這份工作,可以得到更多與家人相處的時間、得到健康,也許還有更多的錢(投資所得),我失去的只有一張印有頭銜的名片,但名片我自己印就可以了。」
想飛之前 先架好安全網
如同馬戲團表演空中飛人,地面一定要有安全網,在你冒險追求生涯夢想前,也要先搭好自己的「安全網」,因為人生永遠有意外。
科斯托蘭尼在生前最後一本著作《一個投機者的告白》裡,列出進出投資市場前都該謹守的10律與讀者分享,其中一條正好就與人生風險管理的原則不謀而合:「考慮所有風險,甚至是最不可能出現的風險,也就是說,要時刻想到有意想不到的因素。」
投資大師啟示錄3
分散風險,安排退路
不論投資或人生,都要秉持「風險分散原則」,不要將全部雞蛋放在同一個籃子,必須預先安排好其他的退路。
索羅斯的父親教給他的生存法則就是:「冒險不算什麼,只是在冒險的時候,不要拿全部家當下注,要做好及時撤退的準備。」攤開索羅斯征戰金融界的紀錄,多數人會被他出手的霸氣嚇到,認為他是在豪賭。其實索羅斯在冒險前必先評估過風險,做足研究再出手,賭資雖然大卻不是全部家當。
同樣地,生涯規劃不能只有「第一志願」,人生也不能只培養單一專長,當夢想失敗時,你還有「第二志願」、「第三志願」可供轉進。
投資大師啟示錄4
追求夢想要設下停損點
開車要踩油門,也要會踩煞車;就好比人生要勇敢做大夢,但也要適可而止,在失敗時設定「停損點」。
以股市來說,賠錢幾乎都是同一個模式:上漲時小賺5%就落跑,下跌時大賠50%還是死抱不放,拒絕設定停損點,認輸退場。
科斯托蘭尼說,投資人犯下最不可原諒的錯誤,就是設定獲利的上限,卻坐視虧損不斷擴大。因為沒有人肯承認自己失敗,大家都想再賭一次機會,一次又一次,結果大錢沒賺到,虧損卻有如無底洞。
黃國華說:「不管是投資或人生,都應該『大賺小賠』,」看對方向時放手大賺,看錯方向時斷然採取停損措施,將損失控制在一定範圍,才能立於不敗。
去年11月初,黃國華在雜誌專欄、部落格開始發表看空,後來他公開承認停損,告訴所有網友與讀者自己虧損8%認賠平倉。他說:「我在幾萬人甚至幾十萬人面前公開承認停損,有些人搞不好認為『你是大師還賠錢』很丟臉,但我先賠幾個百分點,至少比後來賠了40、50%好吧!」
認輸,才有機會回頭
同樣在人生中,有人選錯科系、挑錯行業或公司、找錯異性對象、或是連續報考多年都名落孫山…,分明走錯了一條路,依然執拗走下去,不知道設立停損點,終致越陷越深,想回頭也來不及了。
「我只是時運不濟。」很多求職、工作、事業上一再失敗的人,總會用時機不對或是自己運氣太背,來解釋自己的職場失意,但從投資學角度來探究真正的原因,更有可能是:「你不懂得設立停損。」
「如果已經蒙受損失,便必須承認,把帳算清,馬上從零開始。」科斯托蘭尼在給投機者的忠告,也適用於每一個生涯規劃者。
投資大師啟示錄5
勇敢承認我錯了
「要真正理解證券交易所,肯定要付出很多學費。」科斯托蘭尼說。至於繳出的學費、付出的代價要何時才能回收?就要看你是否懂得「承認過錯,記取教訓」。
郭恭克剛開始玩股票時,不到1年就賠了超過100萬,而當時他的年薪才不過只有30、40萬元,但光是最近這3年,他在投資上的所得就超過8位數。郭恭克說,當初自己繳了不少學費,但他很珍惜市場帶給他的教訓,「市場給你教訓,你要從中學習,真正懂得市場的可怕,就不會放縱自己的貪念,一錯再錯。」
索羅斯認為自己與眾不同的理由很簡單,就是他總能很快地察覺過錯。他說:「承認錯誤是件值得驕傲的事情。犯錯誤並沒有什麼好羞恥的,只有知錯不改才是恥辱。」
寫自己的人生失敗日記
黃國華說,投資市場上會記取教訓的人,大概只有兩成,因為「人都不願意去面對自己」。他說:「試一次、兩次都失敗,就該檢討是哪個環節出了錯,行不通就要急轉彎。你怪市場環境差又能怎麼樣?你不能改變市場、社會,就要改變自己。」
如何誠實面對自己?黃國華說:「去寫你自己的人生失敗日記。」他常常在個人部落格發表自己過去所犯下的投資錯誤,「好好地面對自己過去的失敗經驗,把前因後果、一切經過詳實以述,認真、深入的面對自己,過去犯的錯就不會再犯。」
他說,也許在回顧這些不堪過往時,會感到好笑、無奈甚至心痛,但唯有讓這些感觸牢牢印在腦海中,才不會讓傷心歷史一再重演。「叫你看別人的失敗經驗或誠實面對自己的失敗,不是要你負面思考,而是要你有所警惕。」
洞視人性的恐懼與貪婪
科斯托蘭尼從來不避諱說自己是一個「以賺錢為畢生職志」的投機者,但他縱橫投資市場多年並從中獲取驚人財富的原因在於,他對人性的恐懼與貪婪有著最深刻的掌握與了解。看著投資節目、書籍、文章時,令你感興趣的是名嘴又報了哪些明牌潛力股?還是他們在分析投資人心理時,所透露對人性的透徹觀察與剖析?
在投資專家、大師嘴裡,吐出的明牌也許可能讓你賺大錢,也有可能會讓你套牢大賠,但他們闖蕩股海多年所淬練出的投資心法,若應用在人生上,卻是你一生都受用的寶貴哲學。
今年23歲、正在找尋人生第一份工作的社會新鮮人小葉,日前收到兩家公司的錄取通知單,開出的薪水差不多,但A公司工作時間與內容固定,不少A公司員工都是一做就到退休;B公司的工作則是變化性、挑戰性都高。小葉在兩者間掙扎許久,最後選擇了A公司,他說,雖然心裡屬意B公司工作內容的多元化,但他想:「人生穩定一點,總比有太多未知數來得安全。」
小葉的爸媽很支持他的決定,認為安穩平順的道路比遍地荊棘的道路好走得多,不過看在投資專家眼裡,卻說:「不分青紅皂白往前衝固然太冒險,但是安於穩定的想法,有時比敢冒險的心態更加危險。」
投資大師啟示錄1
安於穩定是人生最大風險
風險與報酬像一對孿生子,想追求高報酬,就要敢於去冒險,不只金融投資是如此,人生成就也是如此。
被譽為「20世紀股市見證人」、「本世紀金融史最成功的投資者之一」,有德國的華倫巴菲特(Warren Buffet)之稱的德國知名投資大師安德列‧科斯托蘭尼(Andre Kostolany)曾說:「一種股票最多可能上漲1,000%甚至10,000%,但最多只能下跌100%。」
不論投資或人生,勇敢去冒險嘗試,頂多賠光本金,若成功卻可賺進千百倍的本金,「下檔空間有限,上檔空間無窮」。尤其是年輕人,根本沒有什麼可以損失的,更值得奮力一搏。
過度保守者與成功無緣
不過正如「獵豹財務長」部落格版主、財經作家郭恭克觀察的,不少投資人只求「小賺小賠」,只要漲跌超過買進成本一定比例,立刻出清持股。在投資市場裡,過度保守的心態雖不至於慘賠,但終究難賺大錢。反映到人生規劃,道理正好互相輝映,過度保守害怕風險,一心追求安穩鐵飯碗的下場,就是離成功越來越遠,也放棄了大放異采的機會。
在網路以「總幹事」筆名開了「總幹事投資筆記—耕讀生活」部落格,1年多就累積超過1,000萬人次瀏覽的投資專家兼財經作家黃國華說:「年紀輕輕就陷於穩定的人最危險,因為他們明明最有本錢可以揮霍,可是他們卻不做。」
黃國華口中的揮霍不等於任性胡來,他說:「20多歲時學習能力正強,擁有的選擇次數也多,可以多方嘗試、多冒險、多學習,錯了都還有機會重來。」
錯失了發掘自己不同可能性的機會,人生的可看性就會縮到只剩一丁點。郭恭克認為,以前的時代,只要選對公司,待到退休都不是問題,現今市場變動劇烈,老闆說裁就裁,公司說倒就倒,「你期待穩定,職場不見得會給你要的穩定。」
投資大師啟示錄2
做好最壞的打算再賭
人稱「金融巨鱷」、曾榮登《金融世界雜誌》華爾街收入排行榜首的索羅斯(George Soros)說:「冒險是生存的必須。」人生是該放手一搏,但面對未知的風險,特別是當自己不再是20來歲的年輕小伙子,人生沒有太多重來機會的人,該怎麼將風險降至最低?
答案是「做好最壞的打算後再賭」。
擁有17年財經工作資歷、曾經是讓人稱羨的上市公司財務長,郭恭克在3年前選擇離開職場,現在的他沒有公司一個月給他10幾萬薪水,卻靠著投資專業讓他累積了更多財富,他說:「你大可以選擇辭掉你的老闆,但你得先想清楚:沒有了固定薪水,還有沒有辦法養活你自己?」
黃國華說:「人生可以賭,但你要知道賭下去會失去或得到什麼再來賭。」在金融業工作多年,29歲年薪就超過百萬,還曾經官拜證券公司副總,黃國華在2002年卻告別高位,轉身成為專職投資人與財經作家,他說:「我知道我離開這份工作,可以得到更多與家人相處的時間、得到健康,也許還有更多的錢(投資所得),我失去的只有一張印有頭銜的名片,但名片我自己印就可以了。」
想飛之前 先架好安全網
如同馬戲團表演空中飛人,地面一定要有安全網,在你冒險追求生涯夢想前,也要先搭好自己的「安全網」,因為人生永遠有意外。
科斯托蘭尼在生前最後一本著作《一個投機者的告白》裡,列出進出投資市場前都該謹守的10律與讀者分享,其中一條正好就與人生風險管理的原則不謀而合:「考慮所有風險,甚至是最不可能出現的風險,也就是說,要時刻想到有意想不到的因素。」
投資大師啟示錄3
分散風險,安排退路
不論投資或人生,都要秉持「風險分散原則」,不要將全部雞蛋放在同一個籃子,必須預先安排好其他的退路。
索羅斯的父親教給他的生存法則就是:「冒險不算什麼,只是在冒險的時候,不要拿全部家當下注,要做好及時撤退的準備。」攤開索羅斯征戰金融界的紀錄,多數人會被他出手的霸氣嚇到,認為他是在豪賭。其實索羅斯在冒險前必先評估過風險,做足研究再出手,賭資雖然大卻不是全部家當。
同樣地,生涯規劃不能只有「第一志願」,人生也不能只培養單一專長,當夢想失敗時,你還有「第二志願」、「第三志願」可供轉進。
投資大師啟示錄4
追求夢想要設下停損點
開車要踩油門,也要會踩煞車;就好比人生要勇敢做大夢,但也要適可而止,在失敗時設定「停損點」。
以股市來說,賠錢幾乎都是同一個模式:上漲時小賺5%就落跑,下跌時大賠50%還是死抱不放,拒絕設定停損點,認輸退場。
科斯托蘭尼說,投資人犯下最不可原諒的錯誤,就是設定獲利的上限,卻坐視虧損不斷擴大。因為沒有人肯承認自己失敗,大家都想再賭一次機會,一次又一次,結果大錢沒賺到,虧損卻有如無底洞。
黃國華說:「不管是投資或人生,都應該『大賺小賠』,」看對方向時放手大賺,看錯方向時斷然採取停損措施,將損失控制在一定範圍,才能立於不敗。
去年11月初,黃國華在雜誌專欄、部落格開始發表看空,後來他公開承認停損,告訴所有網友與讀者自己虧損8%認賠平倉。他說:「我在幾萬人甚至幾十萬人面前公開承認停損,有些人搞不好認為『你是大師還賠錢』很丟臉,但我先賠幾個百分點,至少比後來賠了40、50%好吧!」
認輸,才有機會回頭
同樣在人生中,有人選錯科系、挑錯行業或公司、找錯異性對象、或是連續報考多年都名落孫山…,分明走錯了一條路,依然執拗走下去,不知道設立停損點,終致越陷越深,想回頭也來不及了。
「我只是時運不濟。」很多求職、工作、事業上一再失敗的人,總會用時機不對或是自己運氣太背,來解釋自己的職場失意,但從投資學角度來探究真正的原因,更有可能是:「你不懂得設立停損。」
「如果已經蒙受損失,便必須承認,把帳算清,馬上從零開始。」科斯托蘭尼在給投機者的忠告,也適用於每一個生涯規劃者。
投資大師啟示錄5
勇敢承認我錯了
「要真正理解證券交易所,肯定要付出很多學費。」科斯托蘭尼說。至於繳出的學費、付出的代價要何時才能回收?就要看你是否懂得「承認過錯,記取教訓」。
郭恭克剛開始玩股票時,不到1年就賠了超過100萬,而當時他的年薪才不過只有30、40萬元,但光是最近這3年,他在投資上的所得就超過8位數。郭恭克說,當初自己繳了不少學費,但他很珍惜市場帶給他的教訓,「市場給你教訓,你要從中學習,真正懂得市場的可怕,就不會放縱自己的貪念,一錯再錯。」
索羅斯認為自己與眾不同的理由很簡單,就是他總能很快地察覺過錯。他說:「承認錯誤是件值得驕傲的事情。犯錯誤並沒有什麼好羞恥的,只有知錯不改才是恥辱。」
寫自己的人生失敗日記
黃國華說,投資市場上會記取教訓的人,大概只有兩成,因為「人都不願意去面對自己」。他說:「試一次、兩次都失敗,就該檢討是哪個環節出了錯,行不通就要急轉彎。你怪市場環境差又能怎麼樣?你不能改變市場、社會,就要改變自己。」
如何誠實面對自己?黃國華說:「去寫你自己的人生失敗日記。」他常常在個人部落格發表自己過去所犯下的投資錯誤,「好好地面對自己過去的失敗經驗,把前因後果、一切經過詳實以述,認真、深入的面對自己,過去犯的錯就不會再犯。」
他說,也許在回顧這些不堪過往時,會感到好笑、無奈甚至心痛,但唯有讓這些感觸牢牢印在腦海中,才不會讓傷心歷史一再重演。「叫你看別人的失敗經驗或誠實面對自己的失敗,不是要你負面思考,而是要你有所警惕。」
洞視人性的恐懼與貪婪
科斯托蘭尼從來不避諱說自己是一個「以賺錢為畢生職志」的投機者,但他縱橫投資市場多年並從中獲取驚人財富的原因在於,他對人性的恐懼與貪婪有著最深刻的掌握與了解。看著投資節目、書籍、文章時,令你感興趣的是名嘴又報了哪些明牌潛力股?還是他們在分析投資人心理時,所透露對人性的透徹觀察與剖析?
在投資專家、大師嘴裡,吐出的明牌也許可能讓你賺大錢,也有可能會讓你套牢大賠,但他們闖蕩股海多年所淬練出的投資心法,若應用在人生上,卻是你一生都受用的寶貴哲學。
What are the technical indicators/studies most commonly used by institutional investors and hedge fund managers to forecast the stock market (S&P 500)
I have noticed an emergence in cloud charting techniques (also referred to as Ichimoku Clouds) to determine buy/sell signals. It is useful in looking at indices especially since it will give you a good indication of weather you should be short or long the market. However it is important to note that this is a lagging indicator, so you won't be pumping out massive returns "predicting" the next move in the market. But in a choppy, non-trending market this type of indicator is very useful.
Aside from that, as John mentioned, there are many types of indicators you can use. My advice it to find the one's you feel comfortable with and use them to your advantage. If you try to use "all" (or more than one is capable of managing) of the indicators at once, you are going to become overwhelmed, and you will probably get many contradictory signals.
Aside from that, as John mentioned, there are many types of indicators you can use. My advice it to find the one's you feel comfortable with and use them to your advantage. If you try to use "all" (or more than one is capable of managing) of the indicators at once, you are going to become overwhelmed, and you will probably get many contradictory signals.
George Soros Trading Strategy
George Soros is a Hungarian financier who was born in 1930 in the capital city of Budapest and later fled to avoid the Nazi's, after studying at the London School of Economics and then moved to America and has become one of most famous traders of all times..
Soros maqnages a highly successful fund management company and also runs the Quantum Investment Group. He became a household name when in 1992, when the Bank of England was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and devalue the currency; at the time he was nicknamed ・the man who broke the Bank of England. George Soros in this time period, traded an around $10 billion worth of the currency and made profits of around $1.1 billion. When the Asian crash occured, the Malaysian Parliament accused George Soros, of bringing down the country's currency. Of course he isn't always right and has had some huge losses as well and it's estimated he lost $2 billion, when trading Russian markets.
Philosophy of Trading
Some of his most interesting writings are on the belief, that traders sometimes do so on their own biases and therefore, change the market itself. He says that in this way trading can rather than promoting stability in the market, actually destabilize it and the view that a market will stabilize itself on its own, is often not always the case.
George Soros is a short-term trader and has a very aggressive style of trading. He makes massive, highly leveraged trades and his trading style is based on Global Macro strategy, a philosophy based on making massive, one-way bets on the movement of a financial investment. The bet is a simple one, based around whether the value of the investment traded will either rise or fall.
His strategy is based on reflexivity which rejects the idea that all information is known, to all market participants and thereby discounted in the price. Soros takes the view that market participants themselves, directly influence market fundamentals (as we looked at earlier) and its their irrational behaviour which lead to booms and busts that present him with investment opportunities.
George Soros Quotes
"Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes"
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is make by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
"Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception."
"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."
"The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside".
Books - The Alchemy of Finance
If you want to know more about the trading techniques and strategies George Soros used to make billions, you should read the above book.
・George Soros is unquestionably the most powerful and profitable investor in the world today. Dubbed by BusinessWeek as "The Man Who Moves Markets," Soros once made a billion dollars by betting that the British pound would be devalued. Soros is not merely a man of finance, but a thinker to reckon with as well. In The Alchemy of Finance, this extraordinary man reveals the investment strategies that have made him "a superstar among money managers"(The New York Times)
This book is not an easy read and doesn't give you a specific strategy you can use but it take you into the mind of one of the most successful traders of all time. You get to learn his philosophy of trading and life and for that reason, this book should be read by any serious trader.
One of the World's Best Traders?
Trading like George Soros is pure aggression and while it can yield huge profits he downside of betting big and winning big is of course, betting big and losing big. Over the course of more than three decades, he has made the right moves on numerous occasions, generating Billions of Dollars in profit and a huge number of fans among traders who hold him in awe on the other hand, a huge number of critics amongst those on the losing end of his trades. The fact is George Soros is one of the most famous and one of the most successful traders of all time and in the business of finance, you are judged on profits alone and few have made better gains than him.
Soros maqnages a highly successful fund management company and also runs the Quantum Investment Group. He became a household name when in 1992, when the Bank of England was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and devalue the currency; at the time he was nicknamed ・the man who broke the Bank of England. George Soros in this time period, traded an around $10 billion worth of the currency and made profits of around $1.1 billion. When the Asian crash occured, the Malaysian Parliament accused George Soros, of bringing down the country's currency. Of course he isn't always right and has had some huge losses as well and it's estimated he lost $2 billion, when trading Russian markets.
Philosophy of Trading
Some of his most interesting writings are on the belief, that traders sometimes do so on their own biases and therefore, change the market itself. He says that in this way trading can rather than promoting stability in the market, actually destabilize it and the view that a market will stabilize itself on its own, is often not always the case.
George Soros is a short-term trader and has a very aggressive style of trading. He makes massive, highly leveraged trades and his trading style is based on Global Macro strategy, a philosophy based on making massive, one-way bets on the movement of a financial investment. The bet is a simple one, based around whether the value of the investment traded will either rise or fall.
His strategy is based on reflexivity which rejects the idea that all information is known, to all market participants and thereby discounted in the price. Soros takes the view that market participants themselves, directly influence market fundamentals (as we looked at earlier) and its their irrational behaviour which lead to booms and busts that present him with investment opportunities.
George Soros Quotes
"Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes"
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is make by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
"Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception."
"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."
"The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside".
Books - The Alchemy of Finance
If you want to know more about the trading techniques and strategies George Soros used to make billions, you should read the above book.
・George Soros is unquestionably the most powerful and profitable investor in the world today. Dubbed by BusinessWeek as "The Man Who Moves Markets," Soros once made a billion dollars by betting that the British pound would be devalued. Soros is not merely a man of finance, but a thinker to reckon with as well. In The Alchemy of Finance, this extraordinary man reveals the investment strategies that have made him "a superstar among money managers"(The New York Times)
This book is not an easy read and doesn't give you a specific strategy you can use but it take you into the mind of one of the most successful traders of all time. You get to learn his philosophy of trading and life and for that reason, this book should be read by any serious trader.
One of the World's Best Traders?
Trading like George Soros is pure aggression and while it can yield huge profits he downside of betting big and winning big is of course, betting big and losing big. Over the course of more than three decades, he has made the right moves on numerous occasions, generating Billions of Dollars in profit and a huge number of fans among traders who hold him in awe on the other hand, a huge number of critics amongst those on the losing end of his trades. The fact is George Soros is one of the most famous and one of the most successful traders of all time and in the business of finance, you are judged on profits alone and few have made better gains than him.
Avoid the Herd Mentality
When people first start investing, they often believe they'll make their investment decisions based purely on facts and research, but they end up letting their emotions run the show. This can lead to investments that don't fit into the investor's plans and portfolios. For example, it's very tempting to follow the herd and buy what everyone else is buying. But when a bubble bursts, like the tech bubble did at the end of the 1990s, investors learn the hard way not to invest just because everyone else is doing it.
You can't outperform the market if you buy the market. Bernard Baruch, an economic advisor to Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt, was a firm believer in this principal of market investing, saying repeatedly, “Never follow the crowd.” If you buy with the crowd, you will achieve the same results as everyone else, good or bad.
Following the crowd is a major part of behavioral finance, a relatively new analysis approach that many investment professionals now use as part of their overall strategies. Traditional market analysis is founded on the idea that investors behave rationally and make their decisions only after carefully considering all available information. Behavioral finance adds a more human component by combining basic psychology with investing.
It turns out that many individual investors often act irrationally when it comes to making their buy and sell decisions — for example, they might trade based on the popularity of a stock rather than its value or growth potential. This emotional trading usually leads to losses, yet these investors continue to make the same types of investment decisions. In the relatively new field of behavioral finance, these poor decision-making strategies are examined and linked to market irregularities like crashes and bubbles.
Here's how behavioral finance tends to work. People jump to buy a stock because it's hot. That drives up the price, and more investors snap up shares. It makes no difference that the company has an unproven track record or is loaded with debt — all that matters in the heat of the trading moment is the excitement of owning this very popular stock. The number of investors who jump on that bandwagon alters the patterns and directions of the stock market — and not necessarily for the better.
Corporate websites are an invaluable source of information in helping you make your investment decisions. In a study of individual investors, 74 percent said they visit a company's website before investing in a company and 53.6 percent visit often before making a final decision to invest.
The irony is that while many investors have no problem plowing their hard-earned money into portfolios stuffed with complicated creatures like biotech or nanotechnology stocks, these very same investors pause when given the opportunity to invest in a classic alternative investment like a hedge fund or a real estate trust.
You can't outperform the market if you buy the market. Bernard Baruch, an economic advisor to Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt, was a firm believer in this principal of market investing, saying repeatedly, “Never follow the crowd.” If you buy with the crowd, you will achieve the same results as everyone else, good or bad.
Following the crowd is a major part of behavioral finance, a relatively new analysis approach that many investment professionals now use as part of their overall strategies. Traditional market analysis is founded on the idea that investors behave rationally and make their decisions only after carefully considering all available information. Behavioral finance adds a more human component by combining basic psychology with investing.
It turns out that many individual investors often act irrationally when it comes to making their buy and sell decisions — for example, they might trade based on the popularity of a stock rather than its value or growth potential. This emotional trading usually leads to losses, yet these investors continue to make the same types of investment decisions. In the relatively new field of behavioral finance, these poor decision-making strategies are examined and linked to market irregularities like crashes and bubbles.
Here's how behavioral finance tends to work. People jump to buy a stock because it's hot. That drives up the price, and more investors snap up shares. It makes no difference that the company has an unproven track record or is loaded with debt — all that matters in the heat of the trading moment is the excitement of owning this very popular stock. The number of investors who jump on that bandwagon alters the patterns and directions of the stock market — and not necessarily for the better.
Corporate websites are an invaluable source of information in helping you make your investment decisions. In a study of individual investors, 74 percent said they visit a company's website before investing in a company and 53.6 percent visit often before making a final decision to invest.
The irony is that while many investors have no problem plowing their hard-earned money into portfolios stuffed with complicated creatures like biotech or nanotechnology stocks, these very same investors pause when given the opportunity to invest in a classic alternative investment like a hedge fund or a real estate trust.
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