September 5, 2008
Analysis of Adampak (Part III - An Interview with the CEO)
I was invited by nextinsight.com.sg to publish this article at http://www.nextinsight.com.sg/content/view/602/60/
I had the great honour to meet up with Adampak CEO Mr Chua on 29th August at Adampak's office at Loyang Way. Prior to this meetup, I had submitted the analysis and list of queries lock-stock-and-barrel, to him via his secretary. He had already read through everything and gave me very interesting observations about Adampak and its business. I did not make any recordings, as it will be too rude; everything existed as just a verbal discussion that flowed for 90 mins.
I have summarized and properly categorised my takeaways from my conversation with him, as below. In all my analyses, as more information is acquired, it is only natural that the perceptions evolve and are refined to greater accuracy. Penned in this blog will be the observations and corrections to past erroneous perceptions. Please do not be alarmed as you encounter conflicting propositions as compared to earlier research reports.
On business strategy:
1. Gun for the big deals from the MNCs in any available sector
Mr Chua revealed that Adampak's business strategy is to focus on securing contracts from big time multi-national corporations and making their name known amongst them. Business from other MNCs will then automatically come through referrals etc. Gunning for deals from MNCs is a good strategy and there are two key benefits: firstly, Adampak can ride along on the bustling growth of the MNCs; secondly, increased resilience to regional economic impact. In 1997 when Asian was struck with the financial crisis, sales of Adampak continued to increase at double digit growth, simply because a bulk of Adampak's sales went to US, European MNCs.
The fact that 90% of Adampak's sales derives from the electronic sector is an outcome that is just somehow generated as Adampak just grew it's portfolio over the years; there was no deliberated or active efforts on a particular market focus.
2. Establishing a localised presence as a proximity advantage
In Mr Chua's words, "In this competitive industry, the first one in, wins." In the manufacturing industry, for customer companies to engage a manufacturer, they have to first go through a lengthy qualification process to assess whether the manufacturer is up to standards and can match their requirements. It is after the qualification process that the manufacturer will stand a chance at gaining a part of the contract. A localised presence has helped Adampak obtain more customers who have qualified their plant.
The best exemplification is China. Adampak set up a factory in Suzhou Industrial Park geographically sited alongside many MNCs and the company has an added proximity advantage over other non-local label suppliers based in South-East Asia. In many ways, this move has helped to increase the list of customers who qualified Adampak's plant. In recent months, the number of suppliers based in China has increased sufficiently for a break even point to be achieved at Adampak Suzhou. And it is expected for the number of qualified suppliers to continue to grow
3. Building strong relationships with suppliers to achieve a preferred label converter status and increase revenue streams
Over the years, Adampak has forged strong relations with their suppliers. Today, Adampak is a preferred label converter to 3M, which will recommend their clients to adopt Adampak's services. This further lends credence to Adampak's reputation and opens up an additional revenue stream.
4. Building a strong reputation of quality, reliability, consistency in service delivery
At first glance, it does appear that anyone can do the job of printing labels. But to be able to do the job, consistently, every time is an immense challenge. This is a critical success factor: over the last 20+ years, Adampak has built a strong brand of being able to consistently deliver high quality products on schedule. The brand is there, and the big corporations like HP, FedEx, Seagate, P&G, major telcos, etc. all know Adampak for its ability to consistently deliver at the lowest cost. It was also revealed that HP has been using Adampak's services for the last 20 years since the Adampak was founded. How amazing for a little factory that started in Loyang Avenue!
On growth drivers
RFID
"RFID faces a chicken and egg problem. No one wants to take the lead in adoption; everyone just want to be the follower of a tried, tested technology". Those were words of Mr Chua. The history of barcode labels is a very good case study. It used to be very expensive in the early phases of industry adoption, every company only started to catch on the wave when major players started using it and costs concurrently went down. Likewise, RFID in 3rd Party Logistics will definitely come as the next big wave, as it greatly simplifies inventory management, let's wait patiently to see this sector blossom.
On competitors
According to Mr Chua, it is hard to claim that Adampak is the industry leader in South-East Asia because the coverage is just too difficult to ascertain. There are so many companies operating in a similar fashion in the region, and all are covering different scopes with different strategies. Just to name a few, like Brady, Zephyr (these I know) and ITW, etc. I would estimate there are 10 odd competitors in this industry.
Nonetheless, Adampak is certainly no small player here. Mr Chua shared that a lot of MNCs know Adampak when it comes to die-cut products and high end labels, and companies acknowledge Adampak's reputation for a consistent delivery of quality products. This is a good sign of a company that probably counts as the top few of the list.
He also revealed that Zephyr did make an attempt to break into China many years back, but the venture failed miserably and never materialised, and this made Zephyr's management adopt a more conservative approach of keeping to local confines of Malaysia and China.
On production capacity and scaling up capabilities rapidly
Adampak's factories run 24 hours shift. Mr Chua shared, "in this industry, there's no way you can survive if you work only on 1 shift". The plants run at full capacity for 5 full working days, and during peak periods, the staff work overtime. Clearly, Adampak is running at maximum operating capacity, with little evidence of any excesses.
One of the critical success factors for the manufacturing business is the ability to flex and scale up production capacity rapidly within a very short notice. If a company does not have strong processes in place, achieving a rapid scaling up will not be possible. Mr Chua shared that Adampak has the ability to set up new plants, new factories and get them up and running in a matter of 2~3 months.
On financial management
The sense of financial prudence
Mr Chua shared that the management closely watches the returns on equity. In addition, the company practises a good sense of financial prudence because the management is always fully cognizant of the risks involved in credit calls when banks face a liquidity crunch. Adampak has consistently maintained a high current ratio (current assets over current liabilities), whereby the short term borrowings and liabilities are well within the company's capabilities to repay within 1 year.
Good cashflow management
He also mentioned that Adampak happens to be doing well in this area and is very fortunate because "the customers see the company not as bankers", and their clients have been very prompt and regular with their payments. This is another sign of a well managed business where the company has a very strong relationship of trust and goodwill with their clients.
On process re-engineering and cost rationalization
Adampak does not have a specific department on this. But what they have are a few key staff trained in Six-Sigma (a qualification in process streamlining to reduce costs). Initiatives on cost rationalization are always on-going. For quality checks, computerised imaging was employed a few years back, but there are problems with obtaining a consistent output. Hence the idea was shelved and manual labour is retained. "Nothing beats a visual check", he says.
Putting the money at where there are greatest cost savings/avoidance
If there are any projects ongoing, Mr Chua cited that the company will generally invest more resources to refine the key processes that are potential show-stoppers in the entire manufacturing process. For example, one of the showstoppers in the label manufacturing chain is the punching of label holes and unwarranted retention of debris that causes clogging. This was mentioned by Mr Chua to be a real problem where resources in engineering were diverted to improve the process because of the immense costs of failure in the entire chain.
On Aident
Mr Chua shared that the original plans for Aident was to secure a public listing on the Malaysian Stock Exchange. However, for some reasons, this did not materialise.
I vaguely recalled that in one of my conversations with a Malaysian factory businessman, he mentioned that for anyone to go on a public listing in M'sia, 50% of the company shares will have to go to the government. That is why, there are so many companies that do not want to go public listing to raise funds, because by doing so, they will have lost control of the company and will be reduced to doing the bidding of the government. This is anecdotal evidence, and has yet to be verified. But this might just be one of the reasons that Aident's listing never materialised and Adampak decided to acquire Aident.
On dilution of earnings post-consolidation with Aident
Mr Chua enlightened that the gross profit margin dilution is primarily due to a consolidation with Aident. For 1H07, profits from the associate company Aident were accounted for, but not the revenue. Whereas for 1H08, post-consolidation, the revenue is now included, hence this accounts for the decline.
On impact of inflation and cost increases
I further asked Mr Chua on the impact of inflation on Adampak's business. He gave a very straightforward reply that these are factors that are not within Adampak's control, and when raw material costs increases, Adampak just transfer the cost increases to the customer. This also meant that Adampak should be insulated from damaging effects on cost increases in raw material
On employees
Giving where credit is due, and striving to reduce employee turnover to a minimum
Adampak's management strongly believes in the principle of rewarding the employees for their efforts. This could probably explain why admin expenses generally rose in a 1:1 ratio to revenue, while maintaining a very strong ROE. And this principle has done Adampak a lot of good. Mr Chua shared that it's a well known fact that "Adampak has one of the lowest employee turnover rates around"
This is comforting, because with a HR policy that focuses on rewarding good managers for their efforts, I do not have to worry about excellent managers being poached by other companies.
On management succession planning
I asked him on the plans for management succession planning, he mentioned that this has already put in place - all the managers running different segments of the company. As for the question of importing foreign talent to helm the ship, like many Singapore companeies, Mr Chua said that the issue is not on foreign talent, but on finding the right man for the right job. He is confident that if he is not around, his managers can step up and run the company as well as he does.
On the board of directors
A strong representation of independent directors with experience across multiple industries
Mr Chua also shared that the representation of solid independent directors who hold concurrent appointments on other companies' board helped a lot. The executive management has received good advice from these people who are able to draw on their industry experience.
My final remarks
I think Adampak is a very good company, that is well worth the money I put in as investment. From a financial perspective: the intrinsic value is much higher than the current share price of S$0.22, and there's a very significant margin of safety. Moreover, the net asset value approximates S$0.18 cents per share. Their current significant exposure to the electronics industry will also mean that they may ride along the economic cycles, but I do not expect their ardent clients like HP and Fed-Ex to go out of business, so I am not really worried.
(A sidenote, I realised that HDD are dirt-cheap now. Now, don't you think that developing nations will be very hungry over the next few years for such low-cost storage?)
From a people perspective: it is well managed by a strong team, and this is validated by every single touch point I have with Adampak. From asking of AGM minutes, to requesting for a meetup with the CEO, to posing as a customer to test the sales staff competency, to warm customer service officers who gladly brought me around the factory floor to see a group of workers who are going about their tasks professionally. The team has not failed my expectations thus far. The management is financially prudent, and people like Mr Chua comes across as a forthcoming person an astute businessman.
Does it really bother me if there will be a recessionary year ahead and that electronics industry may be affected? Not at all. Even if the stock market shuts down for the next 12 months, I can continue to sleep well, knowing that the company will continue running and my money will be in good hands. I have done my due diligence to the best of my abilities, and the entire study tells me that the odds are in my favour. Let's wait to see if this gem will really shimmer and shine so brightly that the market cannot ignore anymore.
For Adampak, I have done more than sufficient as an analyst and part owner. It's time to move on to understand other businesses, while keeping this in view.
(P.S. Mr Chua was visibly impressed when he knew that all the written analyst reports I submitted to him came from an engineer. "Not many engineers I know write as well", he said. What a compliment! I guess I was just short of submitting my resume to seek employment in Adampak. :P )
August 16, 2008
Analysis of Adampak (Part II)
Comments on 1HFY08 Results Released on 15th August
(Updated as at 19 August 08, after a release of new information found in 1H08 briefing slides)
Revenue at US$28m for 1H08 as compared to earlier year (1H07) grew by 49%, cost of sales grew by 57.8%, reducing the gross profit margin by 4 percentage points (as compared to 1H07). Given an estimated inventory turnover ratio (cost of sales = US$19m / Inventory = US$7m) of 2.7, the raw material inventory (est. to take up 62% of all inventory, from FY07 AR) is not expected to last beyond 3 months. From this, it can be infered that inflationary pressure on material prices over the last 6 months have been factored into the rise in cost of sales.
(Effects of exchange rate between USD and SGD on profit margin are more fuzzy here to draw direct relations, so I shall not comment on it)
The administrative/distribution expenses rose in tandem (approx. 49%) with the revenue growth - this is reasonable from a retrospective point of view because historical trends have shown that Adampak's admin/distribution expenses growth correlates to revenue growth on a 1:1 ratio. Balance sheet is healthy with a current ratio of (46mil/12mil) of 3.8.
Comparatively, Brady, the global market leader for labelling, is doing much worse and has only registered a 1% growth in revenue for Apr 08 in the Asia-Pacific region (as compared to similar quarter in 2007), and 10% overall sales growth.
Revenue Structure
Examining the revenue structure reveals that Adampak has an inherent business vulnerability that must be addressed in the longer run. i.e. over-dependence on the HDD market. The management acknowledged that efforts must be made to expand their scope of business into other sectors like pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, etc. But it remains to be seen if Adampak can achieve diversification into other sectors and reduce its exposure in the HDD industry. For 1H08, 45% (compared to 49% in 1H07) of the revenue was derived from sales to HDD manufacturers like Seagate.
An overly focused revenue structure is a double edged sword: on one hand, the company is able to ride on the rapid expansion of the HDD industry; but on the other hand, it is definitely not healthy in the long run as Adampak's performance will be half (literally) dependent on the HDD industry.
For RFID sales, revenue registered a growth of 57% from US$0.5m to US$0.8m. By absolute figures, this is a modest figure but definitely not sluggish. While there are serious challenges for RFID to achieve a ubiquitous status, it will definitely come. Let's maintain a close watch on this.
Pre-Aident consolidation versus Post-Aident merger
From the 1H08 results briefing slides, if we assume that Aident was already fully merged with Adampak in 1H07 as a single entity, then compare the sales against that of 1H08 when they have fully merged, we see that sales to telecom products fell by 46% from US$4.2m to US$2.3m. Sales to other electronics sector shrunk by 6% from US$9.7m to US$9.1m. Are this as a result of slowing demand in the electronics products? Does this imply that there were some inherent inefficiencies in Aident's business that brought about the decision of the management to shut down their plant in Shanghai?
It is also noteworthy that it was mentioned that Adampak accrued the lower net profit margin due to the consolidation of Aident's results, as compared to the earlier year which was based on a 1 month equity accounting (i.e. apportioning the results of Aident by the percentage of Adampak's ownership). Such a statement necessarily implies that management acquired Aident, which is a company that is less profitable.
There are many questions that needs answers. But I believe that Adampak's management made this strategic acquisition for good reasons of expanding fast to rapidly penetrate Asian markets like Malaysia and China by leveraging on the established processes and infrastructure of Aident. And all the time, the management is fully aware of the need to restructure and streamline Aident's operations for greater efficiency.
A financially prudent and candid management
The management has also demonstrated financial prudence by curtailing their purchases on plant and equipment (1H08 US$0.2m compared to 1H07 US$1.2m) to conserve cash holdings, brace for a slowdown in global demand, and prevent built up of excess production capacity.
What consistently struck me in my entire analysis was the candid nature of the management about areas of their business that was not doing so well.
Final remarks
Adampak has so far done extremely well in light of the inflationary pressures and slowdown in global demand. Profit margins may be slightly squeezed in view of rough times ahead, but given an efficient cost structure and strong balance sheet, the company will definitely be able to continue to inch forward and expand their market share. Also, management and the business development personnel must continue to aggressively expand sales to other industry sectors to minimise their risk exposure.
August 9, 2008
Analysis of Adampak (Part I)
Over the last few days, I applied Buffett principles and Fisher's concept of 'scuttlebutt' to deeply understand my investment holdings. So I went and approached two companies Adampak and Zephyr as a potential client. By conversing with various senior executives in both companies, I managed to glean a lot of insights that are otherwise not found on financial reports or the internet. For the lay reader, from this blog entry you will be able to gain a much better understanding into the business of labelling and RFIDs.
1. Overview
Products and Services
Adampak products and services are in the area of manufacturing labels for any products that requires some form of labeling. Their labels range from serialized barcodes, generic paste-on labels, tamper-proof labels, labels and seals for use in electronic circuit boards (clean-room 100 and 1000 requirements), insertion of Radio Frequency Identification Tags (RFID) onto labels.
In recent years, Adampak acquired 100% stake in Aident, and hence expanded its business laterally into precision die-cut components, as well as enlarged the manufacturing base to reach into Malaysia.
Industry analysis
Product labels have grown to become ubiquitous and indispensable in our daily lives. And as human’s insatiable need for more products grow indefinitely, the demand for labels will also grow in pace. The global market size for labels is estimated to be worth US$2.0 billion in terms of sales[1]
From a manufacturing perspective, labeling services are critical in the entire product value chain. Companies rely heavily on the labeling services to firstly, perform effective inventory management (using barcodes or RFID), secondly, to communicate key information visually (e.g. from manufacturer to distributor to suppliers to front line sales).
Dividing the pie for service redundancy
In view of the criticality in the entire value chain, companies are cautious in awarding their contracts to the label manufacturers. They will normally adopt a policy distributing the required number of labels amongst the shortlisted manufacturers. This prevents a single point of failure in the entire value chain by building in a layer of service redundancy. For instance, say HP requires 1,000,000 labels for their entire series of printers, if there are three competitors, they will split the pie accordingly and award each label manufacturer a part of the entire contract. Should one label manufacturer’s operations suspend, the customers will be able to fall back on another substituting firm and prevent a catastrophic disruption of the product value chain.
Market Dominance and Barriers to Entry
The prior paragraph implies that the industry will never allow the creation of a monopoly. One manufacturer may be able to eat a majority of the pie, but it will never be able to swallow it complete; in the longer run, many will perish and at the same time, none will be able to achieve complete market dominance; the competition will always taper out to an equilibrium comprising several key players in the industry.
At first glance, the labeling business appears to be a commodity-like industry, with low barriers to entry for potential competitors. But a closer look reveals otherwise. For those companies that have an impressive clientele of most global clients, with 30 to 40 years of industry experience, with consistent delivery of high quality products – these are invisible barriers to entry. For instance, HP will naturally be disinclined to switch to a new China label manufacturer entrant that has not yet been tried tested and proven, and avoid any risk of their product labels fading or falling off at the consumer’s end; they will prefer to stay with the reliable incumbents like Adampak. In addition, for any competitor to take on Adampak in terms of being the lowest cost producer, it must be able to achieve a significant scale of operation to derive economies of scales. It is also quite apparent that extensive experience is required in terms of running a labeling business and managing the technicalities of operations.
As long as the incumbents continue to consistently deliver quality labels at the lowest possible cost, I do not see why product companies like HP will take a risk and perform a switch on such critical services.
Exposure to economic cycles of boom and bust
Adampak and Zephyr currently derive a majority of their sales from pharmaceuticals, electronics, hard drives, telecommunication products. Therefore their businesses are inadvertently driven by demand in the various sectors. While they are making efforts to expand into other industries like 3rd Party Logistics, it will be inadvertent that their sales and profits will depend on the expansion and contraction of the various sectors during economic cycles of boom of bust.
Competitor Analysis: History of the Three Kingdoms
For industrial applications, Adampak, Zephyr and Brady – all these three companies hail as the giants who take up majority of the global pie of labeling services. In the South-East-Asia region, Adampak & Zephyr hail as the two industry leaders. This is based on the fact that their clientele include an impressive list of MNCs like HP, Fed-Ex, DHL, Merck, Seagate, Maxtor, etc. etc. While on the international arena, all three of them compete for contracts from the big companies. There are other labelers, but judging at the Adampak and Brady’s ability to grow sales so consistently and rapidly over the last few years, it does seem that they are gradually scalping sales from the smaller competitors.
Zephyr (pronounced as Zef-fee) is a privately held company based in Singapore. It has 2 factories in Malaysia and 1 in Singapore, as compared to Adampak’s 8 multi-national factories spread over Philippines, China, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Sources from industry insiders revealed that Adampak started out as a sub-contractor of Zephyr. When Zephyr is not able to fully satisfy the sales due to production capacity, the spillover deals went to Adampak. Adampak subsequently cut the umbilical cord, moved forward and went public in 2002. Adampak took the bold move and seized the opportunity to launch into China, while at the same time, Zephyr was cautious of operations in China, so it stayed within the confines of Singapore and Malaysia.
Now, Brady is a US based company with a very extensive range of label services. It has a global outreach with offices and factories spread across Europe, America and Asia. For FY07, it has achieved sales of US$1.3 billion, with 25% of the sales of some US$520m from Asia Pacific countries. In recent years, it has been trying to make attempts to secure its foothold in the Asian region. To break into the Asian markets, Brady took a move to setup factories and offices in Asia, and once attempted mounted a takeover bid on Zephyr.
Competitors Analysis: Financials
From comparisons from FY06 and FY07 annual reports, Zephyr’s revenue dipped slightly by 5% from S$44m to S$42m[2], while Adampak has been fast soaring ahead with revenues growing by 50% from US$31.8m to US$47.8m. Zephyr’s profit margin for FY07 is 26.7%, while Adampak’s gross profit margin is 33%.
In addition, profit/sales ratio for Zephyr is 13.3%, Brady’s is 8%, and Adampak leads with a profit/sales ratio of 15%. In terms of efficiency in cost structure, Adampak emerges as the clear winner here. In terms of Return on Assets (as a measure of profit per dollar of asset), Zephyr has ROA of 13.4%, Brady's is 6%, Adampak leads the pack with an ROA of 16%.
Comparatively in terms of growth, Zephyr is languishing (-5% growth for FY07, and only a total 12% growth since 2003 from then S$39m to FY07 S$44m) as it watches Adampak rapidly expand into Asian markets. If Adampak can continue to sustain its current rate of growth, it is only a matter of time that Adampak will overtake Zephyr to become the South-East Asia’s industry leader. Adampak is well anchored in the Asian markets but the company faces stiff challenges from the goliath incumbent Brady. Given Adampak’s well established network and factories well positioned in South East Asia, I do not rule out a possibility that Brady will extend a takeover bid for Adampak for it to leapfrog and expand its presence in Asian countries.
Areas of Improvement for Adampak
For Adampak to continue to maintain its edge in this industry, efforts must be continually made to leverage on technology to reduce costs and streamline operations. What is observed from a ground tour is that there are many areas that can be further improved with the aid of technology. For example, quality checks on barcodes are performed to 100% by manual visual checks, and this can be expedited by incorporating computerized image recognition technology to replace labour and speed up such checks. This is perhaps just one of the many possible areas of improvements. In addition, instead of a manufacturer offering labeling services, Adampak can consider forging strong relationships with partner companies in related industries to provide customized turnkey solutions for customers. i.e. Adampak can become the customer’s single point of contact from setting up of a label system to printing of labels.
Adampak's business strategy
It is in my opinion that Adampak adopts a strategy that (1) maintains a niche specialization in label manufacturing, (2) leverage on resources in developing nations to reduce production and labour costs, and (3) grows business aggressively in Asian regions by establishing a localised presence.
Challenges of Industry and growth drivers
It was several years ago that RFID was slated as the next wave in 3rd Party Logistics. However, RFID technology faces immense challenges to attain a status that is as ubiquitous as the barcode. Firstly, cost: the transponders are highly expensive, and firms think twice on adoption of such technology for their inventory management needs. Insiders revealed that current RFID technology costs about 10 times more compared to barcode. Secondly, lack of a common standard. Currently, there is a lack of a common standard in production and RFID technology is still largely proprietary as firms with the know-how closely guard the secrets. Finding substitutes are hard and practically non-existent at the moment. Without readily available substitutes to create service redundancy, the take up rate of RFID is consequently reduced. Liberalization and wide adoption of RFID technology by companies for 3rd Party logistics remains to be seen.
Final Remarks
Quotes from Brady’s FY07 report
“Fiscal 2007 was marked by challenges and progress for Brady. While sales grew 34 percent over last year, we were disappointed by a 5 percent increase in net income, which fell well short of our expectations. This was primarily driven by challenges we faced in our OEM markets, with increased pricing pressure from our customers, a loss of focus due to major acquisition integration efforts and some loss of market share. We responded quickly to correct our cost structure, refocus our OEM sales force in Asia and integrate recent acquisitions.”
Was Brady’s CEO referring to a loss of market share to up and rising competitors like Adampak? I would think so. The deeper I analyze the business; the more I am convinced that Adampak is well poised to become the next Unisteel of labels.
2. Management Quality
Is the management of (a) an unquestionable integrity, (b) holds a vested interest, (c) highly competent and (d) shareholder oriented?
Vested Interest
The executive management has a significant vested interest in the company. Executive Director Mr Anthony Tay Song Seng holds a 32% stake in the company with 85 mil shares, while CEO Mr Chua Cheng Song holds a 2% stake with 6.1 mil shares. In addition, in recent months, the Executive Director has steadily been increasing his holdings through open market purchase. As a minority shareholder, the above facts provide immense confidence that the management will be acting in the best interests of the shareholder.
Management stability & integrity
There is also great stability in the management as there have been no changes in the key appointment holders for the last 7 years of listings. This is a good indication of a good and united leadership core. Management has thus far been forthcoming and candid – be it about the challenges the company faces, or the quality of earnings in light of rough times ahead. Management integrity is also spotless, with no clear signs of inconsistencies.
Management competency
The executive director Mr Anthony Tay Song Seng is the founder of the company with more than 25 years of experience in the industry. CEO Mr Chua has been with the company for a period of 10 years. At the manager level, at least 50% of the appointment holders had experience level ranging from 10 years to 20 years in the industry. The independent directors comprise of two chartered accountants, Mr Goh Siang Khin and Mr Lee Joo Hai, and one lawyer Mr Teo Kiang Kok. In addition, interestingly, both independent directors served a stint in Unisteel, and hence they will definitely be able to add value to Adampak from their experience in Unisteel. All of them have an illustrious professional track record in either accountancy or the law practice. This is a very strong representation, and enhances the shareholder confidence in the accuracy and transparency of the financial statements.
Shareholder oriented
Adampak has consistently and unfailingly made good its promise to share the wealth generated from its operations with the shareholders. Although there’s no formal dividend policy, Adampak has distributed approx. 30% of profits to all shareholders for the last few years. This is not expected to change in the near future as the management will likely remain in operation.
My Impression of Adampak’s staff
I went into Adampak posing as a potential customer. I was greeted with a forthcoming Customer Service Manager, and happened to bump into the Executive Director Anthony dressed in tee-shirt and jeans just stepping out from the production floor, probably after doing his ground walkabout. He gave me the first impression as a very down-to-earth and hands on person who knows his stuff. A casual walkabout at the production floor reveals that several technicians are highly experienced with over 20 years of service in this industry.
3. Business Fundamentals & Valuation
Adampak has excellent business fundamentals. For FY2007, using Owner’s Earnings (3.242 mil) / Share Capital (15.5 mil) ROE = 20.9%. For FY2006, ROE is 25.6%. It has a high current ratio of 4, and runs on low debt to finance its growth. The Net Tangible Asset Value as at FY07 is US$0.14, or S$0.19. Using the FY07 operating cashflow of S$0.0275, and a projected growth rate of 15%, assuming Adampak has no terminal value and stays in business for 7 years, Adampak’s intrinsic value is estimated to be S$0.38, which is actually a very conservative estimate of intrinsic value. Take this value and compare to current share price, there is a significant margin of safety of 1.57.
[1] US$2.0 billion is a figure that is derived based on Brady (market leader) Annual Report sales of US$1.3b. A good ballpark estimate is that Brady has cornered some 60~70% of the global market share, while the rest went to smaller labeling manufacturers.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Saturday, August 8, 2009
价值投资的核心
价值投资的核心是什么？受价值投资鼻祖——格雷厄姆的影响，很多投资人认为安全边际是价值投资的核心。安全边际确实非常重要，但我坚定地认为：成长，持续性地成长，才是价值投资的核心。成长，在此是指一个企业内在价值的稳定增长，而非想像性的短期爆发式增长。
对价值投资而言，安全边际的重要性毋庸置疑，但它绝不是价值投资的核心。错误地以安全边际为核心的人，是没有认识到企业的内在价值是动态的、可变的，而非静态的、不变的。它可以增加，可以减少，也可以保持不变。关键就在于企业是否成长。
理智的投资者不能仅仅因为某只股票相对其静态的价值而言很便宜——即存在安全边际，就简单地认为投资后能带来安全而满意的回报。比如，某只股票静态的内在价值为每股25元，投资者在其价格为15元时买入。也就是说，有40％的安全边际，这个折扣应该说已经非常可观了。但问题是，谁知道要持有多长时间股价才能涨到其内在价值25元呢？假如投资者持有一年时间就涨到了25元，那么年收益率将达到66％，但是如果花了两年时间，那年收益率就降为29.3％，持有三年，年收益率降为18.6％，四年，降为13.7％……以此类推，持有的时间越长，年收益率就越低。
最大的问题是，投资者怎么能确定其所买的股票价格就一定会涨到预计的内在价值之上呢？如果该企业的盈利能力停滞不前或者发生了衰退，即企业没有了成长，那么，股价涨到预计的内在价值之上更将是遥遥无期，甚至会一路下跌，导致投资者严重亏损。投资大师巴菲特早期的失败经历已经证明，“捡烟屁股”式投资没有多大效果，他已经放弃了“以便宜的价格购买几只癞蛤蟆”的投资思想，转而坚信“以一般的价格买入一家非同一般的好公司，远远胜过用非同一般的好价格买入一家一般的公司”。因此，可以下这样的结论：脱离了成长的安全边际，将不再安全，也就是说没有多大的实质投资价值。
买股票与购物有一个共同的道理——廉价不能成为你购物的主要理由。仅仅因为价格低廉，就买入一个对你没有使用价值的商品，毫无疑问是在浪费金钱。只有物美，才是你购物的价值所在。同样，成长才是投资的价值所在。成长，持续稳定地成长，才是价值投资的核心。即使安全边际很小甚至为零，只要所投资的企业持续、稳定地成长，长期而言，股价就会随着企业利润的增长而上涨。只有成长，才会使你投资的企业增值，才会使你的投资升值。
中国股市的发展历史已经证明，只有成长才能催生“超级大牛股”。如，１９９８年以前的四川长虹、２００５年以前的中集集团和近几年的贵州茅台、盐湖钾肥、万科Ａ、苏宁电器、云南白药等经典案例。无一不是因为企业持续、稳定地成长所造就。
中国如此，美国亦然。众所周知的美国“超级长线大牛股”——沃尔玛、戴尔、可口可乐以及菲利普·莫里斯等，皆由长期地成长所造就。巴菲特思想的精髓——“经济特许权”、“消费垄断”和“护城河”概念就是从企业分析角度，最大限度地确保成长的稳定性与持续性。可以说，巴菲特的核心思想就是从分析企业能否持续稳定地成长出发的。消费的时候，物美价廉的商品会让消费者满意而归；投资的时候，成长再加安全边际那就会锦上添花、如虎添翼。
当然，成长虽如此重要，但也绝不意味着就一味追求成长而忽略安全边际。质量优，价格也要合算才行。
在此，笔者大胆地将价值投资浓缩为一个公式：价值投资＝（成长＋安全边际）×时间。
只有在企业稳定成长的基础上，安全边际大于等于零（当然越大越好）的时候买入，并耐心持有，直到价格严重高估或企业成长不再持续为止。这就是价值投资的真正内涵。
投资人都知道，股票就是企业股权，买股票就是投资企业，投资企业就是买企业的未来，企业的未来就是企业的成长。因此，成长才是价值投资的真正核心。
对价值投资而言，安全边际的重要性毋庸置疑，但它绝不是价值投资的核心。错误地以安全边际为核心的人，是没有认识到企业的内在价值是动态的、可变的，而非静态的、不变的。它可以增加，可以减少，也可以保持不变。关键就在于企业是否成长。
理智的投资者不能仅仅因为某只股票相对其静态的价值而言很便宜——即存在安全边际，就简单地认为投资后能带来安全而满意的回报。比如，某只股票静态的内在价值为每股25元，投资者在其价格为15元时买入。也就是说，有40％的安全边际，这个折扣应该说已经非常可观了。但问题是，谁知道要持有多长时间股价才能涨到其内在价值25元呢？假如投资者持有一年时间就涨到了25元，那么年收益率将达到66％，但是如果花了两年时间，那年收益率就降为29.3％，持有三年，年收益率降为18.6％，四年，降为13.7％……以此类推，持有的时间越长，年收益率就越低。
最大的问题是，投资者怎么能确定其所买的股票价格就一定会涨到预计的内在价值之上呢？如果该企业的盈利能力停滞不前或者发生了衰退，即企业没有了成长，那么，股价涨到预计的内在价值之上更将是遥遥无期，甚至会一路下跌，导致投资者严重亏损。投资大师巴菲特早期的失败经历已经证明，“捡烟屁股”式投资没有多大效果，他已经放弃了“以便宜的价格购买几只癞蛤蟆”的投资思想，转而坚信“以一般的价格买入一家非同一般的好公司，远远胜过用非同一般的好价格买入一家一般的公司”。因此，可以下这样的结论：脱离了成长的安全边际，将不再安全，也就是说没有多大的实质投资价值。
买股票与购物有一个共同的道理——廉价不能成为你购物的主要理由。仅仅因为价格低廉，就买入一个对你没有使用价值的商品，毫无疑问是在浪费金钱。只有物美，才是你购物的价值所在。同样，成长才是投资的价值所在。成长，持续稳定地成长，才是价值投资的核心。即使安全边际很小甚至为零，只要所投资的企业持续、稳定地成长，长期而言，股价就会随着企业利润的增长而上涨。只有成长，才会使你投资的企业增值，才会使你的投资升值。
中国股市的发展历史已经证明，只有成长才能催生“超级大牛股”。如，１９９８年以前的四川长虹、２００５年以前的中集集团和近几年的贵州茅台、盐湖钾肥、万科Ａ、苏宁电器、云南白药等经典案例。无一不是因为企业持续、稳定地成长所造就。
中国如此，美国亦然。众所周知的美国“超级长线大牛股”——沃尔玛、戴尔、可口可乐以及菲利普·莫里斯等，皆由长期地成长所造就。巴菲特思想的精髓——“经济特许权”、“消费垄断”和“护城河”概念就是从企业分析角度，最大限度地确保成长的稳定性与持续性。可以说，巴菲特的核心思想就是从分析企业能否持续稳定地成长出发的。消费的时候，物美价廉的商品会让消费者满意而归；投资的时候，成长再加安全边际那就会锦上添花、如虎添翼。
当然，成长虽如此重要，但也绝不意味着就一味追求成长而忽略安全边际。质量优，价格也要合算才行。
在此，笔者大胆地将价值投资浓缩为一个公式：价值投资＝（成长＋安全边际）×时间。
只有在企业稳定成长的基础上，安全边际大于等于零（当然越大越好）的时候买入，并耐心持有，直到价格严重高估或企业成长不再持续为止。这就是价值投资的真正内涵。
投资人都知道，股票就是企业股权，买股票就是投资企业，投资企业就是买企业的未来，企业的未来就是企业的成长。因此，成长才是价值投资的真正核心。
我喜欢“大道至简”的方法
估值主题只有一个，那就是，在熊市中买，而在牛市中卖。
“估值固然重要，确实大可不必过分地关注”，主要是基于内在价值的复杂性考虑的。因为价值评估的最大困难是内在价值取决于公司未来的长期现金流，而未来的现金流又取决于公司未来的业务状况，而未来是动态的、不确定的，预测时间越长，其准确度就越低。要给出未来现金流量出现的时间和数量这两个变量的具体数值是一个非常困难的任务。一般情况下，对这两个变量的估计往往不得不在很大的区间范围内，以至于根本得不出什么有用的结论。所以，“估值并不是一件那么容易的事”。即使能够被计算出来的内在价值又怎么样？它也仍然只是一个近似值，并非精确值，而且随着利率变化或者对未来现金流也必须做修正，这种主观认定的内在价值也因此会有所变动。
实际上，就是沃伦·巴菲特和他的老搭档查理·芒格在计算同一企业时也总是不可避免地得出略有不同的内在价值，比如对他们自己公司伯克希尔内在价值的估计就从未一致过，他们各自估计出的内在价值往往相差10%，这也是巴菲特不能向他的股东解释如何计算企业内在价值的原因，“就像我们不断告诉各位，内在价值才是重点所在，有一些事情是无法条列说明，但却必须列入考虑的”。
价值评估确实是投资的最佳方式，然而事实上却没有谁能够精确地评估出一个企业的内在价值，就连巴菲特也坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分的内在价值还有点自信，但这也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。”但是反过来，绝不应当因为估值由于种种因素的影响而导致实际应用时效果差，又去轻易地否定或漠视它。就是说，这种分析仍然是很有价值的。因为“如果你把自己的时间集中在某些行业上，你将会学到许多关于估值的方法。”（巴菲特）
本杰明·格雷厄姆认为，股票内在价值的概念非常灵活，这种灵活性在不同情况下会表现出不同的明确性。举一个例，比如对于招商银行，如果我知道近三年（2008、2007和2006）来它的营业收入分别为553亿、409亿和250亿；净利润分别为209亿、152亿和71亿；净资产收益率分别为28.5%、24.7%和16.7%；不良贷款率由2006年2.12%降到2008年的1.11%；资本充足率则一直维持11.%以上。 2008年10月和2009年1月招商银行又发生了两个重要事项：一是纽约分行正式开业，这是继1991年美国颁布《外资银行监管加强法》以来第一个获得美联储准入的中资银行；一是收购永隆银行，使得永隆银行成为全资附属公司。毫无疑问，这两个重大的举措将提升公司的内在价值，对于进一步加快国际化进程，深入推进经营战略调整，具有深远的战略意义。因此，我估计招商银行的内在价值不会少于5100亿元。当然，如果由另一个人去估计，他得出的肯定又是另一个数据。实际上招商银行在去年市场极端下跌后，其股票价格曾经一度跌破了11元，市盈率不足8倍，市净率在2倍以下，这种情形并不常见。要知道2倍以下的市净率往往是银行并购的价格，招商银行自己全资收购永隆银行，出价就相当于市净率3.01倍。因此，在我看来，此时对“内在价值不会少于5100亿元”，并且准备以多少折扣买入这个判断不如“市盈率不足8倍，市净率在2倍以下”来得明确。但即便如此，也并不意味着我就不重视估值，因为毕竟“这种定性分析本身就非常有助于股票买卖决策”（格雷厄姆）。菲利普·费雪在他另一本名著《股市投资致富之道》中说，“归根结底，即使最成功的股票投资在本质上都包括也反包括三个部分：
1、选择一只或多只未来增长潜势超越市场大盘的股票；
2、知道应该买入的适当时间；
3、知道应该卖出的时间。”
在我看来，“知道应该买入的适当时间”，要么就是大萧条或大崩溃的时候，要么就是在优秀企业遭遇严重困难的时候。特别在大萧条或大崩溃的情形下，几乎所有的股票都会出奇得便宜，所以此时不必过分关注估值——因为事实太明朗了。反之亦反是。确切地说，我喜欢这种“大道至简”的方法，因为这本身也符合费雪在他的《怎样选择成长股》第一部分《普通股和不普通的利润》第一章的开头所说的，“在萧条时买入，而在繁荣时卖出股票的做法包含了很浓厚的价值原理。”而且，我更深信，投资最根本的问题就是心态，并非精确地估值。无论多么重视估值、精确估值，假如不能抑制内心的冲动，控制好情绪，一样地难以取得成功。
过去我对“价值评估，既是艺术，又是科学”深感不解。现在我才知道，大致准确地预测是一种艺术，但满意地进行预测以满足投资决策却是一门科学。关于这一点，我认为肯尼斯在他的父亲菲利普·费雪《怎样选择成长股》的序言“从父亲的著作中学到的”中一段话可以作为这句话的参考：“在本书出版的时候，父亲已经51岁了，他具有不拘一格的才华，已经获得了非常大的成功。这些年来，他慢慢地从直觉上将对技巧的理解转变为对艺术的理解，但是我认为，他不明白这一转变是新手需要花很长的时间才能学会的。......我写这些文字的时候已经52岁了，和他当时写本书的年龄差不多；我很清楚地了解这一点，因为我也不得不花时间去学习，而不是创造这一过程。”看起来，掌握一门“技巧”易，但是上升至“艺术”则难得多。相对于肯尼斯，我绝对不会比他更聪明。他尚且还要“花时间去学习”，以求得“从直觉上将对技巧的理解转变为对艺术的理解”，而况于我，因此我肯定“也不得不花时间去学习，而不是创造这一过程”。
约翰·邓普顿指出：“正确的买入时间是悲观情绪最严重的时刻，那样的话，大部分的问题都可能被解决。”我想，这里面“大部分的问题”中应该也包含了估值的问题。
“估值固然重要，确实大可不必过分地关注”，主要是基于内在价值的复杂性考虑的。因为价值评估的最大困难是内在价值取决于公司未来的长期现金流，而未来的现金流又取决于公司未来的业务状况，而未来是动态的、不确定的，预测时间越长，其准确度就越低。要给出未来现金流量出现的时间和数量这两个变量的具体数值是一个非常困难的任务。一般情况下，对这两个变量的估计往往不得不在很大的区间范围内，以至于根本得不出什么有用的结论。所以，“估值并不是一件那么容易的事”。即使能够被计算出来的内在价值又怎么样？它也仍然只是一个近似值，并非精确值，而且随着利率变化或者对未来现金流也必须做修正，这种主观认定的内在价值也因此会有所变动。
实际上，就是沃伦·巴菲特和他的老搭档查理·芒格在计算同一企业时也总是不可避免地得出略有不同的内在价值，比如对他们自己公司伯克希尔内在价值的估计就从未一致过，他们各自估计出的内在价值往往相差10%，这也是巴菲特不能向他的股东解释如何计算企业内在价值的原因，“就像我们不断告诉各位，内在价值才是重点所在，有一些事情是无法条列说明，但却必须列入考虑的”。
价值评估确实是投资的最佳方式，然而事实上却没有谁能够精确地评估出一个企业的内在价值，就连巴菲特也坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分的内在价值还有点自信，但这也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。”但是反过来，绝不应当因为估值由于种种因素的影响而导致实际应用时效果差，又去轻易地否定或漠视它。就是说，这种分析仍然是很有价值的。因为“如果你把自己的时间集中在某些行业上，你将会学到许多关于估值的方法。”（巴菲特）
本杰明·格雷厄姆认为，股票内在价值的概念非常灵活，这种灵活性在不同情况下会表现出不同的明确性。举一个例，比如对于招商银行，如果我知道近三年（2008、2007和2006）来它的营业收入分别为553亿、409亿和250亿；净利润分别为209亿、152亿和71亿；净资产收益率分别为28.5%、24.7%和16.7%；不良贷款率由2006年2.12%降到2008年的1.11%；资本充足率则一直维持11.%以上。 2008年10月和2009年1月招商银行又发生了两个重要事项：一是纽约分行正式开业，这是继1991年美国颁布《外资银行监管加强法》以来第一个获得美联储准入的中资银行；一是收购永隆银行，使得永隆银行成为全资附属公司。毫无疑问，这两个重大的举措将提升公司的内在价值，对于进一步加快国际化进程，深入推进经营战略调整，具有深远的战略意义。因此，我估计招商银行的内在价值不会少于5100亿元。当然，如果由另一个人去估计，他得出的肯定又是另一个数据。实际上招商银行在去年市场极端下跌后，其股票价格曾经一度跌破了11元，市盈率不足8倍，市净率在2倍以下，这种情形并不常见。要知道2倍以下的市净率往往是银行并购的价格，招商银行自己全资收购永隆银行，出价就相当于市净率3.01倍。因此，在我看来，此时对“内在价值不会少于5100亿元”，并且准备以多少折扣买入这个判断不如“市盈率不足8倍，市净率在2倍以下”来得明确。但即便如此，也并不意味着我就不重视估值，因为毕竟“这种定性分析本身就非常有助于股票买卖决策”（格雷厄姆）。菲利普·费雪在他另一本名著《股市投资致富之道》中说，“归根结底，即使最成功的股票投资在本质上都包括也反包括三个部分：
1、选择一只或多只未来增长潜势超越市场大盘的股票；
2、知道应该买入的适当时间；
3、知道应该卖出的时间。”
在我看来，“知道应该买入的适当时间”，要么就是大萧条或大崩溃的时候，要么就是在优秀企业遭遇严重困难的时候。特别在大萧条或大崩溃的情形下，几乎所有的股票都会出奇得便宜，所以此时不必过分关注估值——因为事实太明朗了。反之亦反是。确切地说，我喜欢这种“大道至简”的方法，因为这本身也符合费雪在他的《怎样选择成长股》第一部分《普通股和不普通的利润》第一章的开头所说的，“在萧条时买入，而在繁荣时卖出股票的做法包含了很浓厚的价值原理。”而且，我更深信，投资最根本的问题就是心态，并非精确地估值。无论多么重视估值、精确估值，假如不能抑制内心的冲动，控制好情绪，一样地难以取得成功。
过去我对“价值评估，既是艺术，又是科学”深感不解。现在我才知道，大致准确地预测是一种艺术，但满意地进行预测以满足投资决策却是一门科学。关于这一点，我认为肯尼斯在他的父亲菲利普·费雪《怎样选择成长股》的序言“从父亲的著作中学到的”中一段话可以作为这句话的参考：“在本书出版的时候，父亲已经51岁了，他具有不拘一格的才华，已经获得了非常大的成功。这些年来，他慢慢地从直觉上将对技巧的理解转变为对艺术的理解，但是我认为，他不明白这一转变是新手需要花很长的时间才能学会的。......我写这些文字的时候已经52岁了，和他当时写本书的年龄差不多；我很清楚地了解这一点，因为我也不得不花时间去学习，而不是创造这一过程。”看起来，掌握一门“技巧”易，但是上升至“艺术”则难得多。相对于肯尼斯，我绝对不会比他更聪明。他尚且还要“花时间去学习”，以求得“从直觉上将对技巧的理解转变为对艺术的理解”，而况于我，因此我肯定“也不得不花时间去学习，而不是创造这一过程”。
约翰·邓普顿指出：“正确的买入时间是悲观情绪最严重的时刻，那样的话，大部分的问题都可能被解决。”我想，这里面“大部分的问题”中应该也包含了估值的问题。
林奇金盆洗手时的告诫
最近，我比较系统地重温了美国著名的投资杂志《杰出投资者文摘》中高手的文章，看到大名鼎鼎的富达麦哲伦基金经理彼得·林奇1990年5月31日退休前的一篇演讲。由于这一年半来市场左右折腾，现在看看人家近20年前的提醒，还是有用的。
林奇的演讲题目是《关于股市赚钱的几个要点》。
规则一：了解你持有的股票。
规则二：作经济预测徒劳无益。
这次全球金融危机，几乎让投资人都成了宏观经济学家。我自己似乎也难免，天天被各种经济数据与投资市场之间的关系搅得晕头转向，工作量之大比得上细读20本金融教科书。不幸的是，我很怀疑自己真正学到了什么有用的学问。
彼得·林奇的疑问是：“在座的大多数人应该还记得1980年至1982年的衰退，这是‘大萧条’之后最严重的衰退。你们有谁接到电话，告诉你们会发生衰退吗？在你经常阅读的那些杂志中，有哪一本杂志曾经成功地预见到了这种情况？没有人告诉我将出现这么悲惨的局面。”
“你可能不相信，人们在预测一年之后将要发生的事情上面，浪费了多少时间。能提前知道一年后的事情当然很棒，但你永远无法知道。因此，不要枉费心机了。这没有任何好处。”
规则三：不要担心股市，也就是集中于个股，忘掉全局（big picture）。
其实，这是规则二的类推，你没法预测宏观市场，那就乖乖地研究个股吧。一场金融大危机，让人们觉得覆巢之下，安有完卵？但是，确实有个别公司经得起折腾，这也是事实。
规则四：不要急躁，你有充足的时间。
这对今天的我们很重要，即便我们真的已处于大牛市中，也不必急于追涨，有的是机会。林奇的原话是：“给我带来丰厚回报的股票，都是我在关注它们第二年、第三年或者第四、第五年才买入的。”
林奇举的例子是沃尔玛。沃尔玛1970年上市，有38家店，售价8美分。五年后，沃尔玛有125家店，股价涨了5倍，达到41美分。1980年，沃尔玛有275家店，利润又比五年前上升了5倍；股价也涨了5倍，为1.89美元。1985年，它有859家店，股价是15.94美元。1990年，林奇演讲的时候，沃尔玛的股价是50美元。
林奇说道，在1980年买沃尔玛股票，已比上市时晚了十年，但持有它仍能赚25倍。不过，林奇也坦承，他并没有持有沃尔玛，当时觉得它的股价过高。
演讲至今，又一个20年过去了。在这次危机中，沃尔玛仍表现出色。我没有细算这20年来沃尔玛股价又翻了多少倍，但一定是惊人的。有意思的是，巴菲特在林奇发出感叹十多年后，才追买沃尔玛。想到这里，大家可以宽慰一下自己了。
林奇提到了一些有关股市投资危险的说法。
危险说法一：股价已经下跌了这么多了，还能跌多少呢？
这个教训大家刚领会，不必谈了。
危险说法二：股价还能上涨多少？记住上面沃尔玛的例子。
危险说法三：我能赔多少？股价只有3美元。这与危险说法一区别不大，再次提醒你跌幅仍会巨大。
危险说法四：最终，跌去的全都将反弹回来。这次流动性大泛滥，让许多股票又创了新高，人们不再提防这个危险的说法了。不过，走着瞧，林奇是对的。
危险说法五：情况糟糕得不能再糟糕，我应该买入。它类似于危险说法一和危险说法三。
危险说法六：当股价反弹到10美元/股时，我就卖出。它类似危险说法四，不少人不以为然。他们总会明白的。
危险说法七：保守型股票波动不大。个中滋味在2008年的市场中领教了。
危险说法八：因为没有买入而赔了钱。
这就是所谓的踏空。这次股市大反弹，许多人因此而十分懊丧。他们也许没有买，有的买了又抛了，有的投机不成还亏了钱。他们见周围的人声称赚了钱，几乎失去了投资的自信。关于这一点，说来话长。大致来说，看看自己的账户吧，踏空不像套牢，你没有亏什么钱。记住林奇的警句：“你错过了成百上千的股票，不过，你只需要几只股票便可发财。”
危险说法九：这是下一个伟大的公司。
由于沃尔玛等个别伟大股票的存在，让人情不自禁，但“下一个伟大的公司永远都没有成功过。下一个玩具反斗城没有成功，下一个家得宝没有成功，下一个施乐没有成功——施乐自己做得也不是很好。下一个麦当劳等，都失败了”。
作者为《科学与财富（Value）》（www.valuegood.com）主编
林奇的演讲题目是《关于股市赚钱的几个要点》。
规则一：了解你持有的股票。
规则二：作经济预测徒劳无益。
这次全球金融危机，几乎让投资人都成了宏观经济学家。我自己似乎也难免，天天被各种经济数据与投资市场之间的关系搅得晕头转向，工作量之大比得上细读20本金融教科书。不幸的是，我很怀疑自己真正学到了什么有用的学问。
彼得·林奇的疑问是：“在座的大多数人应该还记得1980年至1982年的衰退，这是‘大萧条’之后最严重的衰退。你们有谁接到电话，告诉你们会发生衰退吗？在你经常阅读的那些杂志中，有哪一本杂志曾经成功地预见到了这种情况？没有人告诉我将出现这么悲惨的局面。”
“你可能不相信，人们在预测一年之后将要发生的事情上面，浪费了多少时间。能提前知道一年后的事情当然很棒，但你永远无法知道。因此，不要枉费心机了。这没有任何好处。”
规则三：不要担心股市，也就是集中于个股，忘掉全局（big picture）。
其实，这是规则二的类推，你没法预测宏观市场，那就乖乖地研究个股吧。一场金融大危机，让人们觉得覆巢之下，安有完卵？但是，确实有个别公司经得起折腾，这也是事实。
规则四：不要急躁，你有充足的时间。
这对今天的我们很重要，即便我们真的已处于大牛市中，也不必急于追涨，有的是机会。林奇的原话是：“给我带来丰厚回报的股票，都是我在关注它们第二年、第三年或者第四、第五年才买入的。”
林奇举的例子是沃尔玛。沃尔玛1970年上市，有38家店，售价8美分。五年后，沃尔玛有125家店，股价涨了5倍，达到41美分。1980年，沃尔玛有275家店，利润又比五年前上升了5倍；股价也涨了5倍，为1.89美元。1985年，它有859家店，股价是15.94美元。1990年，林奇演讲的时候，沃尔玛的股价是50美元。
林奇说道，在1980年买沃尔玛股票，已比上市时晚了十年，但持有它仍能赚25倍。不过，林奇也坦承，他并没有持有沃尔玛，当时觉得它的股价过高。
演讲至今，又一个20年过去了。在这次危机中，沃尔玛仍表现出色。我没有细算这20年来沃尔玛股价又翻了多少倍，但一定是惊人的。有意思的是，巴菲特在林奇发出感叹十多年后，才追买沃尔玛。想到这里，大家可以宽慰一下自己了。
林奇提到了一些有关股市投资危险的说法。
危险说法一：股价已经下跌了这么多了，还能跌多少呢？
这个教训大家刚领会，不必谈了。
危险说法二：股价还能上涨多少？记住上面沃尔玛的例子。
危险说法三：我能赔多少？股价只有3美元。这与危险说法一区别不大，再次提醒你跌幅仍会巨大。
危险说法四：最终，跌去的全都将反弹回来。这次流动性大泛滥，让许多股票又创了新高，人们不再提防这个危险的说法了。不过，走着瞧，林奇是对的。
危险说法五：情况糟糕得不能再糟糕，我应该买入。它类似于危险说法一和危险说法三。
危险说法六：当股价反弹到10美元/股时，我就卖出。它类似危险说法四，不少人不以为然。他们总会明白的。
危险说法七：保守型股票波动不大。个中滋味在2008年的市场中领教了。
危险说法八：因为没有买入而赔了钱。
这就是所谓的踏空。这次股市大反弹，许多人因此而十分懊丧。他们也许没有买，有的买了又抛了，有的投机不成还亏了钱。他们见周围的人声称赚了钱，几乎失去了投资的自信。关于这一点，说来话长。大致来说，看看自己的账户吧，踏空不像套牢，你没有亏什么钱。记住林奇的警句：“你错过了成百上千的股票，不过，你只需要几只股票便可发财。”
危险说法九：这是下一个伟大的公司。
由于沃尔玛等个别伟大股票的存在，让人情不自禁，但“下一个伟大的公司永远都没有成功过。下一个玩具反斗城没有成功，下一个家得宝没有成功，下一个施乐没有成功——施乐自己做得也不是很好。下一个麦当劳等，都失败了”。
作者为《科学与财富（Value）》（www.valuegood.com）主编
金融预言家谢国忠，再判股市楼市 - 谢国忠：通胀来了
房市、股市火爆，他却直言存在风险。
谢：我觉得见顶可能九十月份
市场信心增强，他却预言通胀来了。
谢：你货币涨得比实体经济快那么多，最终还是要变成通胀的
【解说】据统计，上海上半年的房产价格节节攀升，半年内平均成交价上涨近10%，新房成交价更是比去年同期上涨41%。就在楼市疯狂上涨，许多人对未来房价充满信心的时候。有一个人，却提出了与众不同的看法。
【采访】谢：为什么大家应该去买房地产，其实它是造一个故事来炒房地产/它提供了一个让大家一个预期，就是房价会涨我以后会变成一个有钱人，给你一个梦
采访】3237 记者：您预测一下房市的发展是什么样的？
答：中国以后的房市会出现波动型的，房租回报率是非常低的，所以它不可能靠资产真正的回报，来吸引大家买房子，它通过你的预期让你去买它的房子，所以它这样一个浪头掉下来的掉得低时候，没人买房子，它掉到差不多的时候，他突然故事来了，他们开始买房子第一浪上来了，上来之后又上一浪，我们去年四五月份的时候见过一浪.
记者：您预测这一轮的波峰在那儿？
答：我觉得九,十月份差不多了，因为长期的上升是经济基本面很好的时候他会比较长期的一个上升的阶段，在经济不好的情况下，在资金来炒的情况下，这种波浪不会很长.
【解说】谢国忠认为，楼市的涨跌是有周期性的，主要应该受整体经济的走势而波动。而近期房价攀升的主要原因，并不是由于经济基本面变好导致的，而是许多人放大了对通货膨胀的预期。
【采访】记者：很多老百姓的常识当中觉得通货膨胀只是一个商品价格上涨，其实从我们经济学的原理当中来说这个通货膨胀到底是怎么造成的呢？
答：通货膨胀最重要的就是一个货币增加比经济增加快，大家比较容易理解的一个通货膨胀的一个来源就是经济过热，是供不应求的一个概念，就是经济涨得太快，生产跟不上，那就要提价了.
记者：您估计这个拐点可能会在什么时候
我觉得中国通胀的拐点在4月份已经出现了.
【解说】谢国忠说，通货膨胀来临时，房价会上涨，因此，许多人通过购买房产来对抗通胀，从理论上是可行的。但是，当房价的增长速度超过通货膨胀的速度，也就产生了泡沫。谢国忠认为，目前楼市上涨的幅度已经远远超过通胀的速度，出现了严重的泡沫。
【采访】谢：现在都很高了，一个东西都是相对的，你通胀的话我刚刚提到过这个概念就是通胀百分之五六七减去利息亏的话就是三四五这样一个概念，如果这些规避通胀的一些产品它已经涨到100%，是不是还值得追，跟通胀的风险相比是不是还值得追，这是一个值得大家考虑我觉得不宜追，第二就是这些价格也要回调
【解说】面对不断上升的房价，许多有刚性需求的居民，不得不选择追高，对于这样的选择，谢国忠提出了自己的建议。
3505记者：您觉得现在去买房似乎是不太恰当的时候
答：现在是很不合适的
记者：如果确实是有居住需求有刚性需求的这些消费者他怎么办吗
我觉得中国的城市发展，自己可以做一点基本的努力去研究一下哪里的地段会变好，最核心的就是要有地铁站，因为轨道交通上海的城市可能以后是四五千万人，再怎么限制车辆以后陆地交通可能是非常困难的，所以如果是没有轨道交通上下班是非常很困难的，所以要看看这个城市发展的规划哪里会造地铁站，这个是一个大家可以注意的一件事，第二件事情就是要注意开发商造房子的质量，现在我们思想已经出现开发商之间的区别，有的是比较偏重于房子的质量，房子的质量对二手市场的价值有非常重要/房子是一个长线投资千万不要冲动型的消费，我个人认为买房子要三好，地点好，房子好然后价格好。
【解说】这次由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机，使世界各国实体经济不同程度遭到重创。为了应对危机，增加市场流动性，世界各国都不约而同减息。我国中央银行基准利率更是降到了20年来最低，与1999年亚洲金融危机全面爆发后的利率持平。
【采访】银行存款利息非常低，所以在这种情况下大家寻找它有推动的作用把资金走向其他的市场可能性大，它股市一天的波动比银行一年的利息还大，所以对他来说有这个吸引力了，
【解说】谢国忠说，流动性推升了资产价格，通胀的拐点已经形成。也正是因为预期通胀的原因，国内股票市场一路上扬，在短短半年多时间，上证指数大涨74%。
【交易所实况一点】
就在所有人都极度乐观的时候，谢国忠却认为，由于通胀的到来，政策面一旦转向，国内的股市即将见顶。
【采访】2207 记者：很多投资者他既不希望股票跌但同时他也不希望看到通胀，这两者之间一定是矛盾的吗？
答：一定是矛盾的，因为股票过高一定是货币过多引起来的，中国的资产价格跟银根连得非常紧，如果银根一缩紧的话股市楼市都会掉，如果银根放松的话股市楼市都会涨
记者：类似这样的房市股市当前上涨的情况在您判断还会维持多久？
我觉得见顶可能在九十月份，因为银根虽然说现在还没有缩紧，但是已经不放松了，央行发票据毕竟有信号在那边了。
【解说】2009年7月2日，中国人民银行宣布发行2009年第二十三期中央银行票据，发行量为500亿元。在持续一年的减息之后，央行转向回收货币，开始收紧市场流动性，为即将来临的通货膨胀未雨绸缪。
【采访】谢：其实我们有一个通缩的力量在抵消这个通胀的力量，第一个就是全球化的力量，发展中国家的劳动力的成本比较低，把发达国家的工资压着。第二个就是IT的力量，IT使得生产力上升，成本下降，这两个力量把通胀暂时压住了，所以在发放货币的时候它引起了市场价格的通胀，所以股市楼市暴涨并没有引起一般的通胀，我们今天进入一个时代就是全球化带来的好处基本都已经消化了
【解说】谢国忠担心，由于通胀预期导致资金大量涌入虚拟经济，过高的资产价格泡沫一旦破裂，将会对整个宏观经济造成很大的影响。
【采访】1427 记者：那大家头把钱投到虚拟经济当中去，这对实体经济会产生什么影响呢？
答：炒股市跟炒楼市它是没有生产力的，同一个股票同一个房子炒高了怎么可能会创造价值呢？这是不可能的。如果它是创造了知识产权，他的公司的管理体制有了改善了，那个才是创造价值的，所以我觉得我们政府在引导经济当中我觉得要有平衡，不能让老百姓的精力过度花费在没有生产力的活动上面去
【解说】尽管谢国忠曾经长期在金融机构任职，但是他一直主张轻虚拟，重实体的经济模式，在业界也得到了广泛的认同。2007年谢国忠离开摩根士丹利，成为独立经济学家和金融投资顾问，并领导一家股权投资俱乐部，投资中国非上市公司。
【采访】谢：我觉得世界上现在都在加税，中国的机会就来了/
因为中国的负债率比较低，增长的空间城市化还有一半的路要走，所以增长的空间也是很大，在这情况下中国能够让世界上的有钱的人能够或者基金来积累中国的金融资产，因为这边是外国人在积累中国的金融资产，这边是中国的话实际的财富就是城市化，只要这个是同步走的话中国就能够自己点把火烧起来，不是以出口来带动经济，而是用世界上的财富转移到中国来，给中国带来发展。
【解说】 谢国忠认为，这次由美国引发的金融危机已经动摇了美国在全球经济中的霸主地位。但是对于中国经济来说，是一个危机，更是一个大好的转型良机。
【采访】我们这个蛋糕要做大还要利用世界的力量，过去我们是通过出口把世界的力量引入中国，这一条路很可能是走到头了，以后需要开一条新的路，就是怎么把世界的财富引到中国来，这样中国有了更多的资源之后各个方面都能照顾到，资产市场也能相对比较好，但是经济基本面也能做到不错，这样资产市场股市楼市还能得到更好的支持，所以大家既能开心，经济还能很好。
谢：我觉得见顶可能九十月份
市场信心增强，他却预言通胀来了。
谢：你货币涨得比实体经济快那么多，最终还是要变成通胀的
【解说】据统计，上海上半年的房产价格节节攀升，半年内平均成交价上涨近10%，新房成交价更是比去年同期上涨41%。就在楼市疯狂上涨，许多人对未来房价充满信心的时候。有一个人，却提出了与众不同的看法。
【采访】谢：为什么大家应该去买房地产，其实它是造一个故事来炒房地产/它提供了一个让大家一个预期，就是房价会涨我以后会变成一个有钱人，给你一个梦
采访】3237 记者：您预测一下房市的发展是什么样的？
答：中国以后的房市会出现波动型的，房租回报率是非常低的，所以它不可能靠资产真正的回报，来吸引大家买房子，它通过你的预期让你去买它的房子，所以它这样一个浪头掉下来的掉得低时候，没人买房子，它掉到差不多的时候，他突然故事来了，他们开始买房子第一浪上来了，上来之后又上一浪，我们去年四五月份的时候见过一浪.
记者：您预测这一轮的波峰在那儿？
答：我觉得九,十月份差不多了，因为长期的上升是经济基本面很好的时候他会比较长期的一个上升的阶段，在经济不好的情况下，在资金来炒的情况下，这种波浪不会很长.
【解说】谢国忠认为，楼市的涨跌是有周期性的，主要应该受整体经济的走势而波动。而近期房价攀升的主要原因，并不是由于经济基本面变好导致的，而是许多人放大了对通货膨胀的预期。
【采访】记者：很多老百姓的常识当中觉得通货膨胀只是一个商品价格上涨，其实从我们经济学的原理当中来说这个通货膨胀到底是怎么造成的呢？
答：通货膨胀最重要的就是一个货币增加比经济增加快，大家比较容易理解的一个通货膨胀的一个来源就是经济过热，是供不应求的一个概念，就是经济涨得太快，生产跟不上，那就要提价了.
记者：您估计这个拐点可能会在什么时候
我觉得中国通胀的拐点在4月份已经出现了.
【解说】谢国忠说，通货膨胀来临时，房价会上涨，因此，许多人通过购买房产来对抗通胀，从理论上是可行的。但是，当房价的增长速度超过通货膨胀的速度，也就产生了泡沫。谢国忠认为，目前楼市上涨的幅度已经远远超过通胀的速度，出现了严重的泡沫。
【采访】谢：现在都很高了，一个东西都是相对的，你通胀的话我刚刚提到过这个概念就是通胀百分之五六七减去利息亏的话就是三四五这样一个概念，如果这些规避通胀的一些产品它已经涨到100%，是不是还值得追，跟通胀的风险相比是不是还值得追，这是一个值得大家考虑我觉得不宜追，第二就是这些价格也要回调
【解说】面对不断上升的房价，许多有刚性需求的居民，不得不选择追高，对于这样的选择，谢国忠提出了自己的建议。
3505记者：您觉得现在去买房似乎是不太恰当的时候
答：现在是很不合适的
记者：如果确实是有居住需求有刚性需求的这些消费者他怎么办吗
我觉得中国的城市发展，自己可以做一点基本的努力去研究一下哪里的地段会变好，最核心的就是要有地铁站，因为轨道交通上海的城市可能以后是四五千万人，再怎么限制车辆以后陆地交通可能是非常困难的，所以如果是没有轨道交通上下班是非常很困难的，所以要看看这个城市发展的规划哪里会造地铁站，这个是一个大家可以注意的一件事，第二件事情就是要注意开发商造房子的质量，现在我们思想已经出现开发商之间的区别，有的是比较偏重于房子的质量，房子的质量对二手市场的价值有非常重要/房子是一个长线投资千万不要冲动型的消费，我个人认为买房子要三好，地点好，房子好然后价格好。
【解说】这次由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机，使世界各国实体经济不同程度遭到重创。为了应对危机，增加市场流动性，世界各国都不约而同减息。我国中央银行基准利率更是降到了20年来最低，与1999年亚洲金融危机全面爆发后的利率持平。
【采访】银行存款利息非常低，所以在这种情况下大家寻找它有推动的作用把资金走向其他的市场可能性大，它股市一天的波动比银行一年的利息还大，所以对他来说有这个吸引力了，
【解说】谢国忠说，流动性推升了资产价格，通胀的拐点已经形成。也正是因为预期通胀的原因，国内股票市场一路上扬，在短短半年多时间，上证指数大涨74%。
【交易所实况一点】
就在所有人都极度乐观的时候，谢国忠却认为，由于通胀的到来，政策面一旦转向，国内的股市即将见顶。
【采访】2207 记者：很多投资者他既不希望股票跌但同时他也不希望看到通胀，这两者之间一定是矛盾的吗？
答：一定是矛盾的，因为股票过高一定是货币过多引起来的，中国的资产价格跟银根连得非常紧，如果银根一缩紧的话股市楼市都会掉，如果银根放松的话股市楼市都会涨
记者：类似这样的房市股市当前上涨的情况在您判断还会维持多久？
我觉得见顶可能在九十月份，因为银根虽然说现在还没有缩紧，但是已经不放松了，央行发票据毕竟有信号在那边了。
【解说】2009年7月2日，中国人民银行宣布发行2009年第二十三期中央银行票据，发行量为500亿元。在持续一年的减息之后，央行转向回收货币，开始收紧市场流动性，为即将来临的通货膨胀未雨绸缪。
【采访】谢：其实我们有一个通缩的力量在抵消这个通胀的力量，第一个就是全球化的力量，发展中国家的劳动力的成本比较低，把发达国家的工资压着。第二个就是IT的力量，IT使得生产力上升，成本下降，这两个力量把通胀暂时压住了，所以在发放货币的时候它引起了市场价格的通胀，所以股市楼市暴涨并没有引起一般的通胀，我们今天进入一个时代就是全球化带来的好处基本都已经消化了
【解说】谢国忠担心，由于通胀预期导致资金大量涌入虚拟经济，过高的资产价格泡沫一旦破裂，将会对整个宏观经济造成很大的影响。
【采访】1427 记者：那大家头把钱投到虚拟经济当中去，这对实体经济会产生什么影响呢？
答：炒股市跟炒楼市它是没有生产力的，同一个股票同一个房子炒高了怎么可能会创造价值呢？这是不可能的。如果它是创造了知识产权，他的公司的管理体制有了改善了，那个才是创造价值的，所以我觉得我们政府在引导经济当中我觉得要有平衡，不能让老百姓的精力过度花费在没有生产力的活动上面去
【解说】尽管谢国忠曾经长期在金融机构任职，但是他一直主张轻虚拟，重实体的经济模式，在业界也得到了广泛的认同。2007年谢国忠离开摩根士丹利，成为独立经济学家和金融投资顾问，并领导一家股权投资俱乐部，投资中国非上市公司。
【采访】谢：我觉得世界上现在都在加税，中国的机会就来了/
因为中国的负债率比较低，增长的空间城市化还有一半的路要走，所以增长的空间也是很大，在这情况下中国能够让世界上的有钱的人能够或者基金来积累中国的金融资产，因为这边是外国人在积累中国的金融资产，这边是中国的话实际的财富就是城市化，只要这个是同步走的话中国就能够自己点把火烧起来，不是以出口来带动经济，而是用世界上的财富转移到中国来，给中国带来发展。
【解说】 谢国忠认为，这次由美国引发的金融危机已经动摇了美国在全球经济中的霸主地位。但是对于中国经济来说，是一个危机，更是一个大好的转型良机。
【采访】我们这个蛋糕要做大还要利用世界的力量，过去我们是通过出口把世界的力量引入中国，这一条路很可能是走到头了，以后需要开一条新的路，就是怎么把世界的财富引到中国来，这样中国有了更多的资源之后各个方面都能照顾到，资产市场也能相对比较好，但是经济基本面也能做到不错，这样资产市场股市楼市还能得到更好的支持，所以大家既能开心，经济还能很好。
Friday, August 7, 2009
Adampak
Adampak has a very strong track record of being very shareholder oriented, with a sound and logical approach to managing their business, unfailingly and consistently delivering good dividends and ROE for the past few years. In terms of financial performance thus far, Adampak is almost unparalleled. I briefly screened through using summary guides ($6 in popular) on all the listed stocks, and apparently, by standards of John Burr Williams (Intrinsic valuation) or Warren Buffett and Graham, at currently irrationally depressed prices, this seems like the greatest gem of all - excellent and honest management, consistent performance, outstanding economics, and plenty of room for growth.
However, the greatest challenge for this to become a true stellar performer, is for Adampak to build and continue to retain their 'moat' in this highly competitive industry, to continue to keep that 20+% ROE, and high dividend yield. Dydx correctly pointed out (in an earlier thread) that their RFID tags will be a possible third engine of growth (first being HDD business, second is precision die cuts).
All this information paints about 50~60% the actual reality of Adampak, given that retail investors have access to so limited information. BUT, the assurance came when I know full well that the Exec Directors are heavily vested (total of 50+%), and have been continuously increasing their stakes in recent months.
I am betting on this to become a future ten bagger, the stakes are currently in my favour.
On Adampak's 'moat', I think the main point lies with the very nature of the label converter business focussing on quality-name customers with the requirements of high technical specifications, high-volume, and demanding customer service support. The technical specs involve different types of face-stocks, different types of adhesives, different types of printing, different and exact specifications for different labels/parts/RFID tags, and high-precision die-cutting process. So unless one knows enough about the technical specs, it is difficult to start this kind of business and hope to attain an economic scale within a reasonable period of time, as the production equipment are also quite expensive. Adampak's seasoned management has delivered from the business a high GP margin of over 33% in the last 2 FY's, and this good performance in a way indicates Adampak's 'moat'.
To answer Grandrake's questions -
Ong Hock Leng is one of the founding investors, including Anthony Tay (ED and the largest shareholder) and Tham Kim Par. Both Ong and Tham have not been involved in running the business for quite some time already.
Based on what I know, there is no other listed company which is competing directly with Adampak as a label converter with similar scale and range of products/services. Armstrong does die-cutting and also supplies to HDD manufacturers, but is focussed in rubber parts. Based on what I know, Adampak's direct competitors are Zephyr (local but privately held) and regional subsidiaries of Brady Corp (listed on NYSE).
However, the greatest challenge for this to become a true stellar performer, is for Adampak to build and continue to retain their 'moat' in this highly competitive industry, to continue to keep that 20+% ROE, and high dividend yield. Dydx correctly pointed out (in an earlier thread) that their RFID tags will be a possible third engine of growth (first being HDD business, second is precision die cuts).
All this information paints about 50~60% the actual reality of Adampak, given that retail investors have access to so limited information. BUT, the assurance came when I know full well that the Exec Directors are heavily vested (total of 50+%), and have been continuously increasing their stakes in recent months.
I am betting on this to become a future ten bagger, the stakes are currently in my favour.
On Adampak's 'moat', I think the main point lies with the very nature of the label converter business focussing on quality-name customers with the requirements of high technical specifications, high-volume, and demanding customer service support. The technical specs involve different types of face-stocks, different types of adhesives, different types of printing, different and exact specifications for different labels/parts/RFID tags, and high-precision die-cutting process. So unless one knows enough about the technical specs, it is difficult to start this kind of business and hope to attain an economic scale within a reasonable period of time, as the production equipment are also quite expensive. Adampak's seasoned management has delivered from the business a high GP margin of over 33% in the last 2 FY's, and this good performance in a way indicates Adampak's 'moat'.
To answer Grandrake's questions -
Ong Hock Leng is one of the founding investors, including Anthony Tay (ED and the largest shareholder) and Tham Kim Par. Both Ong and Tham have not been involved in running the business for quite some time already.
Based on what I know, there is no other listed company which is competing directly with Adampak as a label converter with similar scale and range of products/services. Armstrong does die-cutting and also supplies to HDD manufacturers, but is focussed in rubber parts. Based on what I know, Adampak's direct competitors are Zephyr (local but privately held) and regional subsidiaries of Brady Corp (listed on NYSE).
Tat Seng Packaging Group
The 1H(ended 30Jun09)-FY09 results announcement released last evening makes interesting reading.....
After quite a few years of efforts to grow the business, I think this large and well-established local corrugated box producer with 2 large plants in PRC is finally showing some colours in its business and financial results!.....and the company is even paying an interim div. of $0.01/share!
With a current market cap. of only $29.9m (based on the 157.2m issued shares and the last done share price of $0.19), and against the current scale of Tat Seng's business - rev. at some $105.0m p.a., NP at some $6.0 p.a., aftertax FCF (before capex) at some $9.3m p.a., and NAV of $55.6m - the counter is quite obviously grossly under-priced! If profits can continue to rise, then it is highly possible that the counter will be re-rated in a big way.....
Already some smart investors have started actively picking up the shares this morning. So far, the counter has gone up $0.015, or 8.6%; but at $0.19, it is still a long way off its NAV/share of $0.354 as at 30Jun09!
After quite a few years of efforts to grow the business, I think this large and well-established local corrugated box producer with 2 large plants in PRC is finally showing some colours in its business and financial results!.....and the company is even paying an interim div. of $0.01/share!
With a current market cap. of only $29.9m (based on the 157.2m issued shares and the last done share price of $0.19), and against the current scale of Tat Seng's business - rev. at some $105.0m p.a., NP at some $6.0 p.a., aftertax FCF (before capex) at some $9.3m p.a., and NAV of $55.6m - the counter is quite obviously grossly under-priced! If profits can continue to rise, then it is highly possible that the counter will be re-rated in a big way.....
Already some smart investors have started actively picking up the shares this morning. So far, the counter has gone up $0.015, or 8.6%; but at $0.19, it is still a long way off its NAV/share of $0.354 as at 30Jun09!
Popular Holdings
Chou is a driven man, pursuing his dreams in building his business even at the age of 69! I finally think he has a certain flair in developing high-quality, well-designed residential properties. Popular's first project - the "One Robin" - is now practically sold out. The second project - a 19-unit exclusive high-end condo project - at 18 Shelford Rd is now under construction and should be ready for launch and sale in early 2010. I checked out the ground 2 weeks ago, and noted the project also has a distinctive design - at least from the outside. I also noted CDL is building a bigger condo project just next door.
I checked out the One Robin site again yesterday and found out that, following Popular's 26 Jun 09 announcement giving an update of the project.....
the company has successfully sold off the remaining 4 units in the last few weeks, at an average price of $1,400 p.s.f., or approx. $2.7m per unit with a build-in area of 1,900 sq. ft.
I was also told that the 2nd project at 18 Shelford Rd will be launched shortly, at about the same pricing of $1,400 p.s.f. It certainly looks like Popular's residential projects will likely bring in some decent profits going forward, on top of a almost certain write-back of a substantial portion of the provisions taken in last FY on its property projects.
All these properties now seem so cheap, when u compare with Ang Mo Kio's $1150 psf
I accepted Popular because -
1. Their cash-based book shop business in Singapore is solid - most households with primary/secondary students buy from their nearby Popular shops regularly. The same business model is being successfully replicated in Malaysia and Hong Kong.
2. Their scaled up primary/secondary text books publishing business for the Hong Kong market, and the related assessment books publishing business for Singapore, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, are cash cows.
End last year, as a shareholder I was forced upon to put in more capital by the 1-for-2 rights issue @$0.10/share. Because of the depressed stock market then and the rights issue, the share price had fallen to close to $0.10. When compared with the then and post-rights NAV/share, it became a compelling value investing opportunity to load up, especially so as the new rights shares were eligible for a $0.005/share interim dividend.
Popular's current market cap. of $110.0m (based on 647.0m issued shares at today's closing share price of $0.17) is still very low, when compared with the current scale of the business, asset base, and cash flow. And one must not forget the additional value of the publishing and related assets, which are not reflected on the B/S. The expected write-back of a substantial portion of the $31.16m provisions on property projects taken last FY will strengthen equity and the B/S, as well as NAV/share and EPS, going forward. Take a good look into the FY09 (ended 30Apr09) results, one should be able to better appreciate the value of Popular's business, and perhaps also why Mr Market has started re-rating this counter in the last 4 months.....
I think it is relevant to note that the relatively new Harris Book Store (English books) operations, including the 3 small shops opened in the new Terminal 3 of Changi Airport, have suffered some start-up losses, which have dragged down the profits of the entire book retail/distribution business in FY09. Quite clearly, CAAS has pushed the retail idea in Changi Airport too much, and with the opening of T3, the retail business volume in Changi has been spread too thin, to the sufferings of all the retailers there. Given enough time, I think Harris should become profitable.
Based on Popular's accounting policy, rev. and profits from One Robin will only be booked in FY2010. So we can expect a boost on rev. of some $44.0m, and perhaps some $6.0m (based on a 15% profit margin) on PBT, in FY2010.
I checked out the One Robin site again yesterday and found out that, following Popular's 26 Jun 09 announcement giving an update of the project.....
the company has successfully sold off the remaining 4 units in the last few weeks, at an average price of $1,400 p.s.f., or approx. $2.7m per unit with a build-in area of 1,900 sq. ft.
I was also told that the 2nd project at 18 Shelford Rd will be launched shortly, at about the same pricing of $1,400 p.s.f. It certainly looks like Popular's residential projects will likely bring in some decent profits going forward, on top of a almost certain write-back of a substantial portion of the provisions taken in last FY on its property projects.
All these properties now seem so cheap, when u compare with Ang Mo Kio's $1150 psf
I accepted Popular because -
1. Their cash-based book shop business in Singapore is solid - most households with primary/secondary students buy from their nearby Popular shops regularly. The same business model is being successfully replicated in Malaysia and Hong Kong.
2. Their scaled up primary/secondary text books publishing business for the Hong Kong market, and the related assessment books publishing business for Singapore, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, are cash cows.
End last year, as a shareholder I was forced upon to put in more capital by the 1-for-2 rights issue @$0.10/share. Because of the depressed stock market then and the rights issue, the share price had fallen to close to $0.10. When compared with the then and post-rights NAV/share, it became a compelling value investing opportunity to load up, especially so as the new rights shares were eligible for a $0.005/share interim dividend.
Popular's current market cap. of $110.0m (based on 647.0m issued shares at today's closing share price of $0.17) is still very low, when compared with the current scale of the business, asset base, and cash flow. And one must not forget the additional value of the publishing and related assets, which are not reflected on the B/S. The expected write-back of a substantial portion of the $31.16m provisions on property projects taken last FY will strengthen equity and the B/S, as well as NAV/share and EPS, going forward. Take a good look into the FY09 (ended 30Apr09) results, one should be able to better appreciate the value of Popular's business, and perhaps also why Mr Market has started re-rating this counter in the last 4 months.....
I think it is relevant to note that the relatively new Harris Book Store (English books) operations, including the 3 small shops opened in the new Terminal 3 of Changi Airport, have suffered some start-up losses, which have dragged down the profits of the entire book retail/distribution business in FY09. Quite clearly, CAAS has pushed the retail idea in Changi Airport too much, and with the opening of T3, the retail business volume in Changi has been spread too thin, to the sufferings of all the retailers there. Given enough time, I think Harris should become profitable.
Based on Popular's accounting policy, rev. and profits from One Robin will only be booked in FY2010. So we can expect a boost on rev. of some $44.0m, and perhaps some $6.0m (based on a 15% profit margin) on PBT, in FY2010.
Why the Economic Recovery May Be Different This Time
This is not your father's recession.
If domestic spending has been the engine of US economic growth in the past few decades, then the coming recovery - and the job creation that comes with it - won't be a smooth ride.
Much like the American auto industry, the broader economy is undergoing a sea change.
Consumer spending, which typically accounts for 70 percent of economic activity, has been so shaken that it will take years to recover. And even then, the growth will be slow and painful, with subpar job creation.
"The concern is that the magnitude of the downturn was so great and the structural issues so significant that you wouldn't look for a normal recovery," says John J. Castellani, president and chief economist of the Business Roundtable.
Castellani's outlook may not be among the most pessimistic. But it reflects the prevailing caution about how the austerity of consumers, business, and state and local government will keep a lid on spending and hiring.
"We believe that the painful adjustments to household and corporate balance sheets that are likely, given the excesses of the past, are enough to make the economic recovery a slow and tenuous one over the medium term," Morgan Stanley's global economics team said in its Aug. 5 research note.
All of this points to an economic cycle that looks V-shaped on the way down and U-shaped on the way up - something of a first in modern times.
"The major sectors that have pulled us out before are not happening this time - housing, durables, exports," says economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.
Friday's unemployment report is likely to show that the economy is shedding fewer jobs but it's not creating many either. Analysts expect the government to report that 320,000 jobs were lost in July, far fewer than in previous months. But the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 9.6 percent, the highest in 26 years.
For all the talk about the jobless recovery that followed the 1991 recession, the decade between that downturn and the one in 2001 created a staggering amount of jobs.
Though payrolls shrank for more than a year after the end of the 1991 recession, there were 22.7 million more jobs at the expansionary peak of February 2001 than the prior peak in June 1990. About 20 million off those jobs were in services, including 2 million in retail. Another 2 million were in construction.
By contrast, employment was just 5.6 million higher in the peak-through-peak period of 2001-2007. Though manufacturing shed jobs by the millions, construction payrolls jumped by almost 13 percent, or 875,000.
Many of those jobs are now gone. By the end of the second quarter, the economy had lost 6.5 million jobs. Construction payrolls are now lower than they were a decade ago.
"Retailers were already reducing the number of employees with a focus on productivity gains," says HIS Global Strategy economist Brian Bethune, who doesn't expect employers to hire back quickly. "This is the inherent risk of what we're toying with. Where are we going to get the sources of employment growth? If housing remains weak, services will suffer."
In the latest recession, consumer spending shrank for two consecutive quarters for the first time in half a century.
Based on June data, retail sales, which peaked in 2007, are now at a mid-2005 level. Spending on furniture and household furnishings is back to where it was in 2001. The building and garden materials category is at a five-year low; autos an 11-year low.
"We don't see the consumer as being a normal part of the recovery," says Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. Instead, the consumer will be "very much a lagging piece" of the recovery, because of the "threat of unemployment with the absence of housing market wealth effect and the debt overhang."
Between June 2007 and December 2008, inflation-adjusted personal wealth fell by 22.8 percent - the most since the Federal Reserve began collecting data almost 60 years ago. Some $6 trillion in housing wealth alone was lost in 2008.
"When wages and salaries in the private sector are deflating you are really in a difficult situation," observes Bethune. "I don't see how you can move to any kind of strong recovery."
Consumer confidence as well as disposable income are critical to sustaining demand, which is a precondition to companies increasing output and eventually adding new employees.
"When we talk about a sustained rebound in employment, that's going to require a pick up in demand of all goods," says Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, who might be described ad a borderline optimist. "And we're not there yet."
Though companies may have over-reacted when they were slashing jobs in the wake of the Lehman Brothers failure, it's unlikely to mean any short-term correction.
"Even though companies have cut a lot, there is still some capacity," says Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco North America, the job placement firm.
Companies are also cutting costs by slashing their own spending on goods and services.
"In this austerity mode, the first wave is the corporations that have cut back on contractors, vendors, travel," says Bethune. "That keeps happening as corporations keep moving up the tree from the low-hanging fruit until their baseline costs are more aligned with final demand."
Business and professional services, such as IT support, which are often outsourced by big companies, have suffered, say experts. The ISM survey for June reflects such conditions and trends.
"You're not going to see the kind of capital expenditures and investment to have the whole supply chain moving along with you," adds Castellani.
Cash-strapped state and local government are doing much the same as they struggle with budget deficits. Work outsourced to private contractors gets cut in an effort to save payroll positions.
"I don't think we're going to see a rapid pace of demand growth," says Steve East of Height Analytics. "We don't have private sector credit creation anymore and that's different in this recovery than past recoveries. In past recoveries lower interest got people to lever up more and household balance sheets lever up more."
Household mortgage debt decreased in 2008 for the first time since the Federal Reserve started issuing reports 35 years and has fallen four straight quarters though the first quarter of 2009. Consumer credit has fallen two straight quarters as of the first quarter of this year.
That sort of demand environment does not bode well for job creation, especially small business, which generates the majority of jobs.
Right now companies that need to increase output are adding to the workweek of current employees or hiring temporary workers. Hiring for full time positions usually lags by six to 12 months, according to experts.
"Even if they come back into the market, they're going to come in a little more slowly than they have to hire people in past recessions," says Gilliam.
Castellani of the Business Roundtable says hiring "will be a little more iffy than usual" because of doubts about the strength of the recovery.
Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein also expects a slow recovery but doesn't subscribe to the consumer slump, jobless recovery scenario. He says job growth - once it gets going in 2010--will average to 150,00-175,000 a month, but that is well below the quarter of a million average of the 1990s boom.
"There may be fewer clerks behind the cash register at the mall," says Goldstein, but jobs will appear as the economy grows and evolves. "The jobs that will be there may not be the jobs that are there right now. There are always new services."
Right now, the new force in the labor market is the federal government. By some estimates, the $789 billion stimulus package is creating 200,000-250,000. If so, that would put it on track to fulfill the Obama administration's goal of saving or creating 3.5 million jobs, which is about 2.7 percent of the total payrolls as of June.
Many of the plan's initiatives - from tax rebates to the cash-for-clunkers program to a homebuyer credit - are conventional tools meant to spur consumption, particularly of durable goods.
"The government is our spender of last resort," says Shierholz.
If domestic spending has been the engine of US economic growth in the past few decades, then the coming recovery - and the job creation that comes with it - won't be a smooth ride.
Much like the American auto industry, the broader economy is undergoing a sea change.
Consumer spending, which typically accounts for 70 percent of economic activity, has been so shaken that it will take years to recover. And even then, the growth will be slow and painful, with subpar job creation.
"The concern is that the magnitude of the downturn was so great and the structural issues so significant that you wouldn't look for a normal recovery," says John J. Castellani, president and chief economist of the Business Roundtable.
Castellani's outlook may not be among the most pessimistic. But it reflects the prevailing caution about how the austerity of consumers, business, and state and local government will keep a lid on spending and hiring.
"We believe that the painful adjustments to household and corporate balance sheets that are likely, given the excesses of the past, are enough to make the economic recovery a slow and tenuous one over the medium term," Morgan Stanley's global economics team said in its Aug. 5 research note.
All of this points to an economic cycle that looks V-shaped on the way down and U-shaped on the way up - something of a first in modern times.
"The major sectors that have pulled us out before are not happening this time - housing, durables, exports," says economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.
Friday's unemployment report is likely to show that the economy is shedding fewer jobs but it's not creating many either. Analysts expect the government to report that 320,000 jobs were lost in July, far fewer than in previous months. But the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 9.6 percent, the highest in 26 years.
For all the talk about the jobless recovery that followed the 1991 recession, the decade between that downturn and the one in 2001 created a staggering amount of jobs.
Though payrolls shrank for more than a year after the end of the 1991 recession, there were 22.7 million more jobs at the expansionary peak of February 2001 than the prior peak in June 1990. About 20 million off those jobs were in services, including 2 million in retail. Another 2 million were in construction.
By contrast, employment was just 5.6 million higher in the peak-through-peak period of 2001-2007. Though manufacturing shed jobs by the millions, construction payrolls jumped by almost 13 percent, or 875,000.
Many of those jobs are now gone. By the end of the second quarter, the economy had lost 6.5 million jobs. Construction payrolls are now lower than they were a decade ago.
"Retailers were already reducing the number of employees with a focus on productivity gains," says HIS Global Strategy economist Brian Bethune, who doesn't expect employers to hire back quickly. "This is the inherent risk of what we're toying with. Where are we going to get the sources of employment growth? If housing remains weak, services will suffer."
In the latest recession, consumer spending shrank for two consecutive quarters for the first time in half a century.
Based on June data, retail sales, which peaked in 2007, are now at a mid-2005 level. Spending on furniture and household furnishings is back to where it was in 2001. The building and garden materials category is at a five-year low; autos an 11-year low.
"We don't see the consumer as being a normal part of the recovery," says Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities. Instead, the consumer will be "very much a lagging piece" of the recovery, because of the "threat of unemployment with the absence of housing market wealth effect and the debt overhang."
Between June 2007 and December 2008, inflation-adjusted personal wealth fell by 22.8 percent - the most since the Federal Reserve began collecting data almost 60 years ago. Some $6 trillion in housing wealth alone was lost in 2008.
"When wages and salaries in the private sector are deflating you are really in a difficult situation," observes Bethune. "I don't see how you can move to any kind of strong recovery."
Consumer confidence as well as disposable income are critical to sustaining demand, which is a precondition to companies increasing output and eventually adding new employees.
"When we talk about a sustained rebound in employment, that's going to require a pick up in demand of all goods," says Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, who might be described ad a borderline optimist. "And we're not there yet."
Though companies may have over-reacted when they were slashing jobs in the wake of the Lehman Brothers failure, it's unlikely to mean any short-term correction.
"Even though companies have cut a lot, there is still some capacity," says Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco North America, the job placement firm.
Companies are also cutting costs by slashing their own spending on goods and services.
"In this austerity mode, the first wave is the corporations that have cut back on contractors, vendors, travel," says Bethune. "That keeps happening as corporations keep moving up the tree from the low-hanging fruit until their baseline costs are more aligned with final demand."
Business and professional services, such as IT support, which are often outsourced by big companies, have suffered, say experts. The ISM survey for June reflects such conditions and trends.
"You're not going to see the kind of capital expenditures and investment to have the whole supply chain moving along with you," adds Castellani.
Cash-strapped state and local government are doing much the same as they struggle with budget deficits. Work outsourced to private contractors gets cut in an effort to save payroll positions.
"I don't think we're going to see a rapid pace of demand growth," says Steve East of Height Analytics. "We don't have private sector credit creation anymore and that's different in this recovery than past recoveries. In past recoveries lower interest got people to lever up more and household balance sheets lever up more."
Household mortgage debt decreased in 2008 for the first time since the Federal Reserve started issuing reports 35 years and has fallen four straight quarters though the first quarter of 2009. Consumer credit has fallen two straight quarters as of the first quarter of this year.
That sort of demand environment does not bode well for job creation, especially small business, which generates the majority of jobs.
Right now companies that need to increase output are adding to the workweek of current employees or hiring temporary workers. Hiring for full time positions usually lags by six to 12 months, according to experts.
"Even if they come back into the market, they're going to come in a little more slowly than they have to hire people in past recessions," says Gilliam.
Castellani of the Business Roundtable says hiring "will be a little more iffy than usual" because of doubts about the strength of the recovery.
Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein also expects a slow recovery but doesn't subscribe to the consumer slump, jobless recovery scenario. He says job growth - once it gets going in 2010--will average to 150,00-175,000 a month, but that is well below the quarter of a million average of the 1990s boom.
"There may be fewer clerks behind the cash register at the mall," says Goldstein, but jobs will appear as the economy grows and evolves. "The jobs that will be there may not be the jobs that are there right now. There are always new services."
Right now, the new force in the labor market is the federal government. By some estimates, the $789 billion stimulus package is creating 200,000-250,000. If so, that would put it on track to fulfill the Obama administration's goal of saving or creating 3.5 million jobs, which is about 2.7 percent of the total payrolls as of June.
Many of the plan's initiatives - from tax rebates to the cash-for-clunkers program to a homebuyer credit - are conventional tools meant to spur consumption, particularly of durable goods.
"The government is our spender of last resort," says Shierholz.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
好价值：谁是傻瓜？
据权威部门的统计数据：上周（7月27日-7月31日）新增A股开户数为69.9万户，较前一周急升23.66%，截至7月31日，沪深两市共有A股账户首度突破1.3亿户。今天是8月5日，距7月31日又已经6天过去了，肯定至少又有超过50万户的新鲜血液来到我们的市场！
一般而言，新鲜血液是这样想的：中国，美国，欧洲，全球的经济都要复苏了，股市也要应该涨了，现在开户入市，大盘一定会继续冲顶。对于这个市场，明天究竟会涨，还是会跌，我不知道，相信也没人知道。但我相信：现在是持有或者卖出的季节，不是买入的季节。
我也关注经济，但与此同时，我更优先关注市场的人气。
按人气而言，现在的市场可能又进入所谓的“搏傻”的游戏。对于傻瓜，究竟谁是傻瓜？季羡林大师是这样说的：天下有没有傻瓜?有的，但却不是被别人称作"傻瓜"的人，而是认为别人是傻瓜的人，这样的人自己才是天下最大的傻瓜。
谁是傻瓜？
一般而言，新鲜血液是这样想的：中国，美国，欧洲，全球的经济都要复苏了，股市也要应该涨了，现在开户入市，大盘一定会继续冲顶。对于这个市场，明天究竟会涨，还是会跌，我不知道，相信也没人知道。但我相信：现在是持有或者卖出的季节，不是买入的季节。
我也关注经济，但与此同时，我更优先关注市场的人气。
按人气而言，现在的市场可能又进入所谓的“搏傻”的游戏。对于傻瓜，究竟谁是傻瓜？季羡林大师是这样说的：天下有没有傻瓜?有的，但却不是被别人称作"傻瓜"的人，而是认为别人是傻瓜的人，这样的人自己才是天下最大的傻瓜。
谁是傻瓜？
日本股神：投资股票要用乌龟三原则
日本股神-是川银,最高记录是他在82岁高龄一年赚进200亿日圆,他的二忠告/五原则,令我受益非浅,而他在日本股市近60年的经验,他提出的乌龟三原则与8分饱原则,不但在股市,在做人处世建康等方面也很有用,乌龟的稳,忍,不贪,更是我在股票市场中必读的箴言,就像他说的,投资人的心境要与乌龟一样,慢慢观察.审慎买卖,是很重要的.现在只有一本书是可了解他,他写的自传,台湾是由时报出版的,书名叫股票之神是川银,作者是他自己,现在已绝版了,他后来90几岁才死。
股神的三件法宝
是川银先生是日本著名的股票大师，在被称为「天下第一赌场」的股市纵横拼搏60年，创造了无数的奇迹。他30岁时以70日元做本钱入市即获利百倍，成为日本股市的名 人。仅靠投资股市，他在1982年度日本个人所得排行榜中名列第一，1983年名列第二。 他百发百中的判断力，预测经济形势和股市行情的准确性令人吃惊，因此被称为「股市之神」。是川先生从少年开始闯荡天下，艰苦创业，特别是在股市上拼搏60年的股票生涯。他刻 苦学习的精神、正直的为人、炒股中的「神机妙算」，尤其是他那珍一生的炒股秘诀 ──「只吃八分饱」和「乌龟三原则」和详细解说培养个人判断力的方法，以及对炒股 者的劝诫和忠告，被无数股民奉为炒股必读之「圣经」。
乌龟三原则
是川积多年的经验认为，投资股票就像乌龟一样，兔子与乌龟的竞赛，兔子因为太过自信，被胜利冲昏了头，以至于失败。另一方面，乌龟走得虽慢，却是稳扎稳打，谨慎小心，反而赢得最后胜利，因此，投资人的心境必须和乌龟一样，慢慢观察，审慎买卖。所谓「乌龟三原则」就是：
一、选择未来大有前途，却尚未被世人察觉的潜力股，长期持有。
二、每日盯牢经济与股市行情的变动，而且自己下功夫研究。
三、不可太过于乐观，不要以为股市会永远涨个不停，而且要以自有资金操作。
只吃八分饱
是川认为，投资股票卖出比买进要难得多，买进的时机抓得再准，如果在卖出时失败了，还是赚不了钱。
而卖出之所以难是因为一般不知道股票会涨到什么价位，因此便很容易受周围人所左右，别人乐观，自己也跟着乐观，最后总是因为贪心过度，而错失卖出的良机。
日本股市有句俗话：「买进要悠然，卖出要迅速。」如果一口气倒出，一定会造成股价的暴跌，因此，必须格外谨慎，不能让外界知道自己在出货，而且，他有时为了让股票在高价位出脱，还得买进，以拉抬股价，如此买进与卖出交互进行，逐渐减少手中的持股。市场人气正旺时，是川不忘「饭吃八分饱，没病没烦恼」的道理，收敛贪欲，获利了结。遵守了「低价买进，高价卖出」的股市投资法则。
而那些涨到337日元仍在争相买进的投资人，正好相反，犯了「高价买进，低价卖出」的错误。
●事实上，日本水泥创下337日元天价后，便急转直下，不到半年，跌破了2闹日元大关，之后，还继续往下探底
对于股市投资人，是川有两个忠告。
第一个忠告是：
◎投资股票必须在自有资金的范围内「没有现金也没关系，一定会赚！」证券公司再怎么以此类的甜言蜜语诱惑你，也千万不可去做融资、融券。股价有涨亦有跌，下跌的幅度稍大，就会被追缴保证金，若不缴，便会被证券公司中止合作。当然，下跌时赶紧出脱就没事了，可是连股市专家都很难判断何时该卖，何况是一般投资大众？
有时候，投资人也会运气好而赚一笔，可是人们往往在尝到胜利的滋味后，忘记了失败的悲惨，而乘胜追击，大胆深入。结果，通常的结局是，不但赔掉本钱，还得向亲戚、朋友，甚至高利贷业者借一屁股债。
第二个忠告是：
◎不要一看到报章杂志刊出什么利多题材，就一头栽进去。
老实说，单听别人的意见，或只凭报纸、杂志的报导就想赚钱，这样的心态本身就已经是失败的根源。自己不下功夫研究，只想在上班之余，看看报章杂志有什么利多题材，以供买进股票之依据。这样是不可能成功的。天下岂有如此的美事？
真的想在股市赚钱的话，就得注意经济的动向，本地经济、世界经济，要每天不间断地注意。只要拥有一般程度的经济常识，谁都办得到，何况判断的材料大多出现在每天的报纸上，极为方便。
是川银把买股票比喻为登山，理想的买点自然是在高度离山谷不很远的地方，可是当报纸、杂志出现利多消息时，通常股价已涨到离山顶很近的地方。自己收集情报、在低价区买进、耐心等待，这是投资股票的秘诀.
股票投资五原则
最后，是川把他这一生的投资经验，整理成「投资五原则」提供给读者参考。
一、选股票不要靠人推荐，要自己下功夫研究后选择；
二、自己要能预测一二年后的经济变化；
三、每只股票都有其适当价位，股价超越其应有水平，切忌追高；
四、股价最后还是得由其业绩决定，做手硬做的股票千万碰不得；
五、任何时候都可能发生难以预料的事件，因此必须记住，投资股票永远有风险。
股神的三件法宝
是川银先生是日本著名的股票大师，在被称为「天下第一赌场」的股市纵横拼搏60年，创造了无数的奇迹。他30岁时以70日元做本钱入市即获利百倍，成为日本股市的名 人。仅靠投资股市，他在1982年度日本个人所得排行榜中名列第一，1983年名列第二。 他百发百中的判断力，预测经济形势和股市行情的准确性令人吃惊，因此被称为「股市之神」。是川先生从少年开始闯荡天下，艰苦创业，特别是在股市上拼搏60年的股票生涯。他刻 苦学习的精神、正直的为人、炒股中的「神机妙算」，尤其是他那珍一生的炒股秘诀 ──「只吃八分饱」和「乌龟三原则」和详细解说培养个人判断力的方法，以及对炒股 者的劝诫和忠告，被无数股民奉为炒股必读之「圣经」。
乌龟三原则
是川积多年的经验认为，投资股票就像乌龟一样，兔子与乌龟的竞赛，兔子因为太过自信，被胜利冲昏了头，以至于失败。另一方面，乌龟走得虽慢，却是稳扎稳打，谨慎小心，反而赢得最后胜利，因此，投资人的心境必须和乌龟一样，慢慢观察，审慎买卖。所谓「乌龟三原则」就是：
一、选择未来大有前途，却尚未被世人察觉的潜力股，长期持有。
二、每日盯牢经济与股市行情的变动，而且自己下功夫研究。
三、不可太过于乐观，不要以为股市会永远涨个不停，而且要以自有资金操作。
只吃八分饱
是川认为，投资股票卖出比买进要难得多，买进的时机抓得再准，如果在卖出时失败了，还是赚不了钱。
而卖出之所以难是因为一般不知道股票会涨到什么价位，因此便很容易受周围人所左右，别人乐观，自己也跟着乐观，最后总是因为贪心过度，而错失卖出的良机。
日本股市有句俗话：「买进要悠然，卖出要迅速。」如果一口气倒出，一定会造成股价的暴跌，因此，必须格外谨慎，不能让外界知道自己在出货，而且，他有时为了让股票在高价位出脱，还得买进，以拉抬股价，如此买进与卖出交互进行，逐渐减少手中的持股。市场人气正旺时，是川不忘「饭吃八分饱，没病没烦恼」的道理，收敛贪欲，获利了结。遵守了「低价买进，高价卖出」的股市投资法则。
而那些涨到337日元仍在争相买进的投资人，正好相反，犯了「高价买进，低价卖出」的错误。
●事实上，日本水泥创下337日元天价后，便急转直下，不到半年，跌破了2闹日元大关，之后，还继续往下探底
对于股市投资人，是川有两个忠告。
第一个忠告是：
◎投资股票必须在自有资金的范围内「没有现金也没关系，一定会赚！」证券公司再怎么以此类的甜言蜜语诱惑你，也千万不可去做融资、融券。股价有涨亦有跌，下跌的幅度稍大，就会被追缴保证金，若不缴，便会被证券公司中止合作。当然，下跌时赶紧出脱就没事了，可是连股市专家都很难判断何时该卖，何况是一般投资大众？
有时候，投资人也会运气好而赚一笔，可是人们往往在尝到胜利的滋味后，忘记了失败的悲惨，而乘胜追击，大胆深入。结果，通常的结局是，不但赔掉本钱，还得向亲戚、朋友，甚至高利贷业者借一屁股债。
第二个忠告是：
◎不要一看到报章杂志刊出什么利多题材，就一头栽进去。
老实说，单听别人的意见，或只凭报纸、杂志的报导就想赚钱，这样的心态本身就已经是失败的根源。自己不下功夫研究，只想在上班之余，看看报章杂志有什么利多题材，以供买进股票之依据。这样是不可能成功的。天下岂有如此的美事？
真的想在股市赚钱的话，就得注意经济的动向，本地经济、世界经济，要每天不间断地注意。只要拥有一般程度的经济常识，谁都办得到，何况判断的材料大多出现在每天的报纸上，极为方便。
是川银把买股票比喻为登山，理想的买点自然是在高度离山谷不很远的地方，可是当报纸、杂志出现利多消息时，通常股价已涨到离山顶很近的地方。自己收集情报、在低价区买进、耐心等待，这是投资股票的秘诀.
股票投资五原则
最后，是川把他这一生的投资经验，整理成「投资五原则」提供给读者参考。
一、选股票不要靠人推荐，要自己下功夫研究后选择；
二、自己要能预测一二年后的经济变化；
三、每只股票都有其适当价位，股价超越其应有水平，切忌追高；
四、股价最后还是得由其业绩决定，做手硬做的股票千万碰不得；
五、任何时候都可能发生难以预料的事件，因此必须记住，投资股票永远有风险。
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
那些很少犯错误的人 也会很少有所发现
《马太福音》第二十五章的十四至三十节中，耶稣讲了一个故事：某人在动身去旅行以前，将一笔钱留给三个仆人，他给了第一个仆人5个塔兰特（Talents）（约合今天的5,000美元）；给了第二个仆人2个塔兰特；对第三个仆人，他仅给了1个塔兰特。他旅行回来之后，要求仆人们说明是如何使用所得到的那笔钱的，得到5个塔兰特的仆人说，他通过投资已使这笔钱翻了一番；得到2个塔兰特的仆人也是如此，然而，得到1个塔兰特的仆人害怕投资失败，将它埋在地下。前两名仆人受到了重重的奖赏，第三个仆人受到了谴责和惩罚。
听了这个故事之后可以问问自己：曾有多少次，我也像那位胆小的仆人一样，因为害怕失败而失去了机会？曾有多少次，害怕自己在同事面前显得愚蠢而抑制自己？是的，那些在害怕的基础上建立起来的自我强加的束缚是很难挣脱的，但越早挣脱，就能越快地脱离恐惧。不怕犯错误、不怕失败，往往会使我们获得成功。要牢牢记住：“失败乃成功之母。”
生活与我们已经经历的现实一样有趣和刺激，如果我们把认识停留在已知的思想和行为上，也许能防止失败，但也能阻止我们的生活变得更有趣和更刺激。探索思想、情感和行为的新领域，意味着我们不得不让自己进入以前从未进入过的领域。虽然新的情境中容易犯错，然而，错误仅在阻止我们取得更大的进步时才是消极的。所以，如果你害怕犯错而拒绝尝试用一个新思路去解决一个棘手的难题，你可能会出现真正的甚至是严重的错误，有时候我们害怕犯错，结果却犯了最大的错误。也许，一头栽进一个没有预先考虑过的环境中是很愚蠢的，但害怕冒险、害怕进入未知的领域，同样是愚蠢的。如果你在错误中成长，你就能学到如何在新的形势下更好地处理问题的方法。
当失败带来压力和痛苦时，它也给你提供了一个非常好的机会，失败会让你知道，哪些是你应该做的，哪些是不能做的。实际上，很多时候，相比正确方法指导的教育，失败可能给予我们的更多，衡量你的错误行为所造成的影响和忍受失败的考验，也是一个指导你走向成功的老师。
提姆·汉塞尔（Tim Hansel）在他的《你得一直跳下去》（《You Gotta Keep Dancing》）——书中谈论了克服环境和失败的重要性，他描述班扬（John Bunyan）怎样在监狱中写下了《天路历程》。南丁格尔（Florence Nightingale）病得十分严重，躺在床上不能移动，但她却整顿、改善了英格兰的医疗环境。在中风的困扰下，路易斯·巴斯特（Louis Pateur）坚持不懈地与病魔作斗争。美国历史学家弗朗西斯·帕克曼（Francis Parkman）在他生命中的大部分时光中都遭受病痛的折磨，他每次仅能持续工作五分钟，他的视力极差，以至于仅能在稿子上潦草地写几个大字，但他仍然策划并写出了二十本历史巨著。他们无所畏惧地做自己最应该做的事。斯坦利·琼斯（E. Stanley Jones）这样描述自己坚强的信仰：“我明白我的精神是为了信仰而塑造的，而不是畏惧，畏惧不是我的本性，信仰才是。我如此坚定，以至于担忧和忧虑是我生命机器中的沙子，而信仰是润滑剂。信仰和自信比畏惧、怀疑、焦虑使我生活得更好。忧虑不利于现实生活。”
不管你是否完全认识到或还没有意识到，你就像耶稣寓言中的仆人那样，已经得到了许多“塔兰特”（Talent，意思与“才能”相同），它能使你得到你想要的生活，你不能因为害怕失去它而错误地将其掩埋。不要在未来回忆你的一生时充满悔恨，遗憾当时由于害怕失败而不去寻求机会。要大胆、自信、明智、合理地去投资你的“才能”，一定会获得丰厚的利润，发现更有意义更精彩的生活。
对于我们每个人来说，生活是成长的真实体验，它是美妙的、令人兴奋的体验。沿着这条路行进的时候，会遇到不少挑战和难题，我们也许会犯错，尝到失败的滋味。我们也许能知道失败的原因，也许不能，但知道原因不如我们知道在难题和挑战面前该怎么做更重要。让我们引用《Guideposts》杂志上的话来鼓励自己，“痛苦使人消沉，忧虑使人徘徊，信仰催人向上。”
智慧小语
好运来的时候，需要往后退：退却一两步而给予跳跃者翅膀。 ——波斯诗人
如果你对所有的错误关上门，那么真理也会被关在门外。 ——泰戈尔
进步的取得要靠改正来自于获取进步时的那些错误。 克劳德·吉善
从来不犯错的人将一事无成。 ——英国谚语
我们的错误不会将我们的生活毁灭到不可挽回的地步，除非我们听任它们这样做。听说在编织波斯地毯的时候，巧夺天工的能手站在毯子的面前，而另一面站着一群孩子，当编织开始以后，他们便配合编织能手拉线。假如某个孩子拉错了线，这个艺术能手会把图案作相应的调整，以至于在毯子完成以后，没有人可以从中看出半点破绽。如要我们愿意让我们每条错误的思想之线依然穿梭，也让上帝把它编织成圆满、有序的图案，这种相似的调整就发生在我们的生活里。 ——詹姆斯·斯温尼
听了这个故事之后可以问问自己：曾有多少次，我也像那位胆小的仆人一样，因为害怕失败而失去了机会？曾有多少次，害怕自己在同事面前显得愚蠢而抑制自己？是的，那些在害怕的基础上建立起来的自我强加的束缚是很难挣脱的，但越早挣脱，就能越快地脱离恐惧。不怕犯错误、不怕失败，往往会使我们获得成功。要牢牢记住：“失败乃成功之母。”
生活与我们已经经历的现实一样有趣和刺激，如果我们把认识停留在已知的思想和行为上，也许能防止失败，但也能阻止我们的生活变得更有趣和更刺激。探索思想、情感和行为的新领域，意味着我们不得不让自己进入以前从未进入过的领域。虽然新的情境中容易犯错，然而，错误仅在阻止我们取得更大的进步时才是消极的。所以，如果你害怕犯错而拒绝尝试用一个新思路去解决一个棘手的难题，你可能会出现真正的甚至是严重的错误，有时候我们害怕犯错，结果却犯了最大的错误。也许，一头栽进一个没有预先考虑过的环境中是很愚蠢的，但害怕冒险、害怕进入未知的领域，同样是愚蠢的。如果你在错误中成长，你就能学到如何在新的形势下更好地处理问题的方法。
当失败带来压力和痛苦时，它也给你提供了一个非常好的机会，失败会让你知道，哪些是你应该做的，哪些是不能做的。实际上，很多时候，相比正确方法指导的教育，失败可能给予我们的更多，衡量你的错误行为所造成的影响和忍受失败的考验，也是一个指导你走向成功的老师。
提姆·汉塞尔（Tim Hansel）在他的《你得一直跳下去》（《You Gotta Keep Dancing》）——书中谈论了克服环境和失败的重要性，他描述班扬（John Bunyan）怎样在监狱中写下了《天路历程》。南丁格尔（Florence Nightingale）病得十分严重，躺在床上不能移动，但她却整顿、改善了英格兰的医疗环境。在中风的困扰下，路易斯·巴斯特（Louis Pateur）坚持不懈地与病魔作斗争。美国历史学家弗朗西斯·帕克曼（Francis Parkman）在他生命中的大部分时光中都遭受病痛的折磨，他每次仅能持续工作五分钟，他的视力极差，以至于仅能在稿子上潦草地写几个大字，但他仍然策划并写出了二十本历史巨著。他们无所畏惧地做自己最应该做的事。斯坦利·琼斯（E. Stanley Jones）这样描述自己坚强的信仰：“我明白我的精神是为了信仰而塑造的，而不是畏惧，畏惧不是我的本性，信仰才是。我如此坚定，以至于担忧和忧虑是我生命机器中的沙子，而信仰是润滑剂。信仰和自信比畏惧、怀疑、焦虑使我生活得更好。忧虑不利于现实生活。”
不管你是否完全认识到或还没有意识到，你就像耶稣寓言中的仆人那样，已经得到了许多“塔兰特”（Talent，意思与“才能”相同），它能使你得到你想要的生活，你不能因为害怕失去它而错误地将其掩埋。不要在未来回忆你的一生时充满悔恨，遗憾当时由于害怕失败而不去寻求机会。要大胆、自信、明智、合理地去投资你的“才能”，一定会获得丰厚的利润，发现更有意义更精彩的生活。
对于我们每个人来说，生活是成长的真实体验，它是美妙的、令人兴奋的体验。沿着这条路行进的时候，会遇到不少挑战和难题，我们也许会犯错，尝到失败的滋味。我们也许能知道失败的原因，也许不能，但知道原因不如我们知道在难题和挑战面前该怎么做更重要。让我们引用《Guideposts》杂志上的话来鼓励自己，“痛苦使人消沉，忧虑使人徘徊，信仰催人向上。”
智慧小语
好运来的时候，需要往后退：退却一两步而给予跳跃者翅膀。 ——波斯诗人
如果你对所有的错误关上门，那么真理也会被关在门外。 ——泰戈尔
进步的取得要靠改正来自于获取进步时的那些错误。 克劳德·吉善
从来不犯错的人将一事无成。 ——英国谚语
我们的错误不会将我们的生活毁灭到不可挽回的地步，除非我们听任它们这样做。听说在编织波斯地毯的时候，巧夺天工的能手站在毯子的面前，而另一面站着一群孩子，当编织开始以后，他们便配合编织能手拉线。假如某个孩子拉错了线，这个艺术能手会把图案作相应的调整，以至于在毯子完成以后，没有人可以从中看出半点破绽。如要我们愿意让我们每条错误的思想之线依然穿梭，也让上帝把它编织成圆满、有序的图案，这种相似的调整就发生在我们的生活里。 ——詹姆斯·斯温尼
我宁愿与他们背道而驰
行情火爆起来，要我推荐买股票的人也多了起来。
记得年初的时候，还是这些人，那时我曾提议他们买股票，但是他们却不感兴趣，因为据说股指可能还会跌，因为据说金融将继续危机 —— 不但不买，还要卖。而今他们热情似火，因为据说股指可能还会涨，因为据说金融不会再危机 —— 一个劲地要买。我只疑惑的是，难道现在买要比年初（更不用说去年年底）来得划算？
举例说，年初的时候江西铜业只有12元，而现在46元；年初的时候中国平安27元，而现在62元，这就是说，现在买一股，年初却可以买2-3股甚至4股。当然，我知道，我肯定不能阻止他们买进 —— 也没有这个必要。
事情的发展往往就是这样，当我要买入时，他们却要卖；如今或以后，当我要卖时，他们反而要买。是我与他们背道而驰，还是他们与我背道而驰？ —— 暂且也不去理它。《聪明的投资者》全书的第一句话是， “ 如果总是做显而易见或大家都在做的事,你就赚不到钱。 ”
《怎样选择成长股》中的引言说， “ 如果你所做的事情是同一时间所有的人都在做的，并且因此对你产生了几乎不可抵抗的欲望，那么一般这件事根本就是错误的。 ” 既然结果是这样的，那么我宁愿与他们背道而驰！
记得年初的时候，还是这些人，那时我曾提议他们买股票，但是他们却不感兴趣，因为据说股指可能还会跌，因为据说金融将继续危机 —— 不但不买，还要卖。而今他们热情似火，因为据说股指可能还会涨，因为据说金融不会再危机 —— 一个劲地要买。我只疑惑的是，难道现在买要比年初（更不用说去年年底）来得划算？
举例说，年初的时候江西铜业只有12元，而现在46元；年初的时候中国平安27元，而现在62元，这就是说，现在买一股，年初却可以买2-3股甚至4股。当然，我知道，我肯定不能阻止他们买进 —— 也没有这个必要。
事情的发展往往就是这样，当我要买入时，他们却要卖；如今或以后，当我要卖时，他们反而要买。是我与他们背道而驰，还是他们与我背道而驰？ —— 暂且也不去理它。《聪明的投资者》全书的第一句话是， “ 如果总是做显而易见或大家都在做的事,你就赚不到钱。 ”
《怎样选择成长股》中的引言说， “ 如果你所做的事情是同一时间所有的人都在做的，并且因此对你产生了几乎不可抵抗的欲望，那么一般这件事根本就是错误的。 ” 既然结果是这样的，那么我宁愿与他们背道而驰！
多疑和恐惧是通往失败的道路----约翰·坦普顿
约翰·坦普顿，20世纪最伟大的价值投资者之一，1937年开始其华尔街生涯。坦普顿创建了全球最大、最成功的坦普顿共同基金集团。他被美国《Money》杂志誉为“20世纪全球最伟大的股票与基金投资人”。
由于他的卓越成就，坦普顿1987年被英国女王伊丽莎白二世授勋为爵士。
一个夏天的傍晚，一个男人独自坐在自家的后院里，这个后院紧紧地挨着一片清幽的森林，他坐在一张摇椅上，想要享受靠近大自然的那份宁静和纯洁，洗涤身体的劳烦和心灵的污浊，得到身心的放松和净化。当夜晚徐徐降临的时候，他似乎觉得起了风，于是他开始担心刚才的舒适晚景会很快消失，有“山雨欲来”的感觉。接下来，他隐约觉得有奇怪的声音来自密林深处，于是他开始想象有凶猛的野兽正从密林中走出来，向自己的院子靠近。很快，他的脑袋里就装满了各种恐怖的想法，使他变得越来越紧张，终于，他站起身害怕地回到了屋子里。但我们知道，他开始的目标是想享受一个美妙幽静的山林夜晚，结果他未能实现这一微小的愿望。这个男人的事例向我们展现了布莱恩·亚当斯（Brian Adams）提出的一条生活法则——多疑和恐惧的想法是通向失败的道路。
“多疑”和“恐惧”这对孪生“妖妹”常常导致人们不能实现自己的目标和任务，这两个否定的力量常会阻碍我们虔诚地相信生活和享受生活，也会阻碍我们积极地想办法克服短暂的困难。如果将它们驱逐出我们的灵魂，会让我们产生神圣的力量。关于这一点，艾米莉·勃朗特（Emily Bronte）为我们作出了诠释：“没有懦弱的灵魂是我的，这个暴风雨侵扰的星球也没有颤抖，我看见天堂的荣耀发出光辉，还有信念在闪耀，把我从恐惧中武装起来。”赫里克（Robert Herrick）说：“永远不要怀疑，你会发现，没有真正的难事。”
我们来举个例子，如果一个学生怀疑自己的能力，总是整天恐惧一场即将到来的考试，结果把自己搞得身心俱疲，最后真的会考得很糟。我想这样的例子不止在一个学生身上发生过。怀疑和恐惧招致失败在动物身上也不乏其例，比如，一匹奔跑的马在怀疑有意外情况和恐惧的时候会突然停蹄不前，不敢继续奔跑，这会让骑马的人感到更恐惧，只能从一次有意义的旅行中撤退。我们看到，怀疑和恐惧就像抢夺欢乐宝贵片刻的小偷，它们会给我们带来疾病、贫乏和紊乱等不和谐的音符。
为了避免失败，思想必须定位在正确的方向，成功的运动员为此作出了实证。专注于完成每一项运动，成功就是必然的，观众的一路支持也使运动员更为专心。在职业高尔夫比赛中，周围的观众使球员更加专注，观众屏息着直到球员击出球。
1914年，一个医生建议塞利格·格瑞斯吉尔（Selig Grossinger）从纽约市的快节奏生活中抽出身来作一次休假。三个星期以后，格瑞斯吉尔从山区回到城市，显得精神抖擞，他经过深思熟虑之后，决定在Catskill山为全家买一个小农场。但他买下的这个农场布满了岩石，在没有电力和室内水灌设施的情况下是不能耕种的，更别说带来什么收入。于是，他决定从那些到山区来寻找新鲜空气和安静环境的寄宿者中寻求帮助。在这个原始的农场里，到处都是些粗重的笨活，但主人的善良和意志使参与者越来越多。不到五年的时间，格瑞斯吉尔在附近买下了一个更大、更现代化的地方，把它建成了世界闻名的旅游胜地格瑞斯吉尔（Grossingers）旅馆，现在他的整个家族都在为当年他的那个冒险的梦想日夜忙碌。他们那时没有让怀疑和恐惧毁灭他们的远景和信心。
相信以上事例让我们又明白了一个道理——思想是道路，而积极的思想是向上的道路。当我们的思想被恐惧和怀疑所阻碍的时候，我们常常会不战而退，不战自败；而当我们无畏和勇往直前以及充满美好憧憬的时候，我们就会把怀疑与恐惧击得粉碎，成功的曙光最终会到来。
由于他的卓越成就，坦普顿1987年被英国女王伊丽莎白二世授勋为爵士。
一个夏天的傍晚，一个男人独自坐在自家的后院里，这个后院紧紧地挨着一片清幽的森林，他坐在一张摇椅上，想要享受靠近大自然的那份宁静和纯洁，洗涤身体的劳烦和心灵的污浊，得到身心的放松和净化。当夜晚徐徐降临的时候，他似乎觉得起了风，于是他开始担心刚才的舒适晚景会很快消失，有“山雨欲来”的感觉。接下来，他隐约觉得有奇怪的声音来自密林深处，于是他开始想象有凶猛的野兽正从密林中走出来，向自己的院子靠近。很快，他的脑袋里就装满了各种恐怖的想法，使他变得越来越紧张，终于，他站起身害怕地回到了屋子里。但我们知道，他开始的目标是想享受一个美妙幽静的山林夜晚，结果他未能实现这一微小的愿望。这个男人的事例向我们展现了布莱恩·亚当斯（Brian Adams）提出的一条生活法则——多疑和恐惧的想法是通向失败的道路。
“多疑”和“恐惧”这对孪生“妖妹”常常导致人们不能实现自己的目标和任务，这两个否定的力量常会阻碍我们虔诚地相信生活和享受生活，也会阻碍我们积极地想办法克服短暂的困难。如果将它们驱逐出我们的灵魂，会让我们产生神圣的力量。关于这一点，艾米莉·勃朗特（Emily Bronte）为我们作出了诠释：“没有懦弱的灵魂是我的，这个暴风雨侵扰的星球也没有颤抖，我看见天堂的荣耀发出光辉，还有信念在闪耀，把我从恐惧中武装起来。”赫里克（Robert Herrick）说：“永远不要怀疑，你会发现，没有真正的难事。”
我们来举个例子，如果一个学生怀疑自己的能力，总是整天恐惧一场即将到来的考试，结果把自己搞得身心俱疲，最后真的会考得很糟。我想这样的例子不止在一个学生身上发生过。怀疑和恐惧招致失败在动物身上也不乏其例，比如，一匹奔跑的马在怀疑有意外情况和恐惧的时候会突然停蹄不前，不敢继续奔跑，这会让骑马的人感到更恐惧，只能从一次有意义的旅行中撤退。我们看到，怀疑和恐惧就像抢夺欢乐宝贵片刻的小偷，它们会给我们带来疾病、贫乏和紊乱等不和谐的音符。
为了避免失败，思想必须定位在正确的方向，成功的运动员为此作出了实证。专注于完成每一项运动，成功就是必然的，观众的一路支持也使运动员更为专心。在职业高尔夫比赛中，周围的观众使球员更加专注，观众屏息着直到球员击出球。
1914年，一个医生建议塞利格·格瑞斯吉尔（Selig Grossinger）从纽约市的快节奏生活中抽出身来作一次休假。三个星期以后，格瑞斯吉尔从山区回到城市，显得精神抖擞，他经过深思熟虑之后，决定在Catskill山为全家买一个小农场。但他买下的这个农场布满了岩石，在没有电力和室内水灌设施的情况下是不能耕种的，更别说带来什么收入。于是，他决定从那些到山区来寻找新鲜空气和安静环境的寄宿者中寻求帮助。在这个原始的农场里，到处都是些粗重的笨活，但主人的善良和意志使参与者越来越多。不到五年的时间，格瑞斯吉尔在附近买下了一个更大、更现代化的地方，把它建成了世界闻名的旅游胜地格瑞斯吉尔（Grossingers）旅馆，现在他的整个家族都在为当年他的那个冒险的梦想日夜忙碌。他们那时没有让怀疑和恐惧毁灭他们的远景和信心。
相信以上事例让我们又明白了一个道理——思想是道路，而积极的思想是向上的道路。当我们的思想被恐惧和怀疑所阻碍的时候，我们常常会不战而退，不战自败；而当我们无畏和勇往直前以及充满美好憧憬的时候，我们就会把怀疑与恐惧击得粉碎，成功的曙光最终会到来。
Monday, August 3, 2009
人在天堂，錢在銀行--想做的事就去做~大前研一的智慧勸告
∼要及時行樂~ 共勉之！
「沒有人每天釣魚、打高爾夫球。如果每天都做這些事，其實是很痛苦的。打高爾夫球、釣魚和旅行之所以快樂，是因為這些事情並非日常之事。」∼∼大前研一
很多人都有一大堆計劃留到退休後去做，但到了那時候，現在想來快樂的事，屆時已不快樂了。想做就馬上去做，儘管不景氣，這仍是大前研一的諍言。
我說「人生不妨繞路走」，讀者或許不知道什麼是繞路。我就試著從我接觸過的多位經營者的（痛苦）小巧引出我的看法吧！
過去30年間，我至少和一千位經營者共事過。正確的數字我沒算過，但是一年30個人，30年下來應該有這個數目吧。我所謂的經營者，都是社長（總經理）、會長（董事長）等事業成功的企業人士，也都是孜孜矻矻忙著賺錢的人。
這些日本企業領袖多半愛談退休後的生活。有人說想每天打高爾夫球悠悠哉哉的日子，有人想回到面臨瀨戶內海的美麗故鄉天天釣魚，有人想和老妻帶著珍愛的相機環遊世界，有人只希望含飴弄孫、忘掉工作，還有人夢想參加非營利組織（NPO）到東南亞當技術指導，有人甚至想在郊外蓋間房子晴耕雨讀，或是長住澳洲。
他們年老後的夢想五花八門，可謂百人百樣，但只有一點我非常確定：他們之中沒有一個人完成夢想。為什麼呢？
首先，他們熬不到圓滿退休，最近半途失意退職、悄悄過日子的案例尤其多。其中多半是公司裡發生了意想不到的狀況，恰巧位在高層的他們，只好引咎辭職。另一個原因是位居高層的時間太久、積勞過度而猝逝。
同樣地，歷任會長、董事會顧問、顧問、最高顧問、監察人等職位，一過了80歲，便被送進老人院的情形也很多。他們在60歲上下時侃侃而談退休後的希望和夢想，但是一過了70歲，卻突然開始想做「終身經營者」，怎麼也不肯退休。那些能幸運退休的情況又如何呢？好像也有問題。沒有人每天釣魚、打高爾夫球。每天做這些事其實很痛苦。打高爾夫球、釣魚和旅行之所以快樂，是因為這些事情並非日常之事。
每天打高爾夫球得找到球伴，每天和同一個對手打也無趣，況且往往很快就累了。人上了年紀，打球的分數增減也很有限。只有當場地和對手都不同時，才會覺得有趣。每天要做到這樣，似乎很難。我在美國佛羅里達常看到退休老人打高爾夫球，他們幾乎是為了健康而打、為了防止老人痴呆而打，讓人感覺不到退休前所期待的「樂趣」。
釣魚則更慘。釣到的魚得有人高興吃掉。老夫妻沒那份食慾；老伴每天表現出最大限度的歡喜，其實都是裝出來的。釣魚必須有人樂享成果。如果還是社長任內，因為是偶一為之，擅長逢迎的職員會起鬨作樂，爭相討魚。孫子也會討好說：「爺爺好厲害哦！」如果住在市區，分送鄰居也皆大歡喜。但是在瀨戶內海的窮村釣魚，和漁夫沒有什麼不同。在只有老人的村子裡每天釣魚，一點也不快樂。本來還有這種夢想的經營者，現在都已打消念頭。童年時釣魚是很快樂，當社長時偶爾去釣魚也很快樂。可是真正退休後天天釣魚，就不是這麼回事了。
那位想環遊世界拍攝照片的人還是繼續旅行，只是不再拍照了。他當副社長時去過南美洲的伊瓜蘇瀑布，拍了一些幻燈片回來，當時是很稀奇，他以「副社長的南美報告」為題，宴請屬下，同時展示攝影成果。席間讚語不絕：「照相技術真是一流啊！」「哇！我也想去一次看看。」真個是賓主盡歡。他退休後又去尼羅河上游，拍回一些珍貴的照片，但是這回屬下就不捧場了。不是推說有事在忙，就是告罪下週有預算會議或要出差，理由儘管不一樣，總之就是沒人來看。就連孫子若不利誘也不肯來。結果落得只有和看過實景的老妻一起整理相簿的下場。從此他出門時不再帶沉重的手動照相機，換成用過即丟的即可拍相機了。看來，即使完全實現年老後的夢想，也沒有當初所想的那般快樂。
我的結論只有一句，這輩子都不要說：「我以後要怎樣怎樣……」。我的建議是，如果有「以後」想做的事，現在，沒錯，就請現在去做！想做的時候正當其時，沒有延後的理由。現在覺得快樂的事，上了年紀以後，不一定覺得快樂。更積極地說，現在就做覺得快樂的事，才能學會年老也覺得快樂的方法，退休後就能成為真正的玩家，快樂地生活。
∼摘自：想做的事就去做！（作者：大前研一）
「沒有人每天釣魚、打高爾夫球。如果每天都做這些事，其實是很痛苦的。打高爾夫球、釣魚和旅行之所以快樂，是因為這些事情並非日常之事。」∼∼大前研一
很多人都有一大堆計劃留到退休後去做，但到了那時候，現在想來快樂的事，屆時已不快樂了。想做就馬上去做，儘管不景氣，這仍是大前研一的諍言。
我說「人生不妨繞路走」，讀者或許不知道什麼是繞路。我就試著從我接觸過的多位經營者的（痛苦）小巧引出我的看法吧！
過去30年間，我至少和一千位經營者共事過。正確的數字我沒算過，但是一年30個人，30年下來應該有這個數目吧。我所謂的經營者，都是社長（總經理）、會長（董事長）等事業成功的企業人士，也都是孜孜矻矻忙著賺錢的人。
這些日本企業領袖多半愛談退休後的生活。有人說想每天打高爾夫球悠悠哉哉的日子，有人想回到面臨瀨戶內海的美麗故鄉天天釣魚，有人想和老妻帶著珍愛的相機環遊世界，有人只希望含飴弄孫、忘掉工作，還有人夢想參加非營利組織（NPO）到東南亞當技術指導，有人甚至想在郊外蓋間房子晴耕雨讀，或是長住澳洲。
他們年老後的夢想五花八門，可謂百人百樣，但只有一點我非常確定：他們之中沒有一個人完成夢想。為什麼呢？
首先，他們熬不到圓滿退休，最近半途失意退職、悄悄過日子的案例尤其多。其中多半是公司裡發生了意想不到的狀況，恰巧位在高層的他們，只好引咎辭職。另一個原因是位居高層的時間太久、積勞過度而猝逝。
同樣地，歷任會長、董事會顧問、顧問、最高顧問、監察人等職位，一過了80歲，便被送進老人院的情形也很多。他們在60歲上下時侃侃而談退休後的希望和夢想，但是一過了70歲，卻突然開始想做「終身經營者」，怎麼也不肯退休。那些能幸運退休的情況又如何呢？好像也有問題。沒有人每天釣魚、打高爾夫球。每天做這些事其實很痛苦。打高爾夫球、釣魚和旅行之所以快樂，是因為這些事情並非日常之事。
每天打高爾夫球得找到球伴，每天和同一個對手打也無趣，況且往往很快就累了。人上了年紀，打球的分數增減也很有限。只有當場地和對手都不同時，才會覺得有趣。每天要做到這樣，似乎很難。我在美國佛羅里達常看到退休老人打高爾夫球，他們幾乎是為了健康而打、為了防止老人痴呆而打，讓人感覺不到退休前所期待的「樂趣」。
釣魚則更慘。釣到的魚得有人高興吃掉。老夫妻沒那份食慾；老伴每天表現出最大限度的歡喜，其實都是裝出來的。釣魚必須有人樂享成果。如果還是社長任內，因為是偶一為之，擅長逢迎的職員會起鬨作樂，爭相討魚。孫子也會討好說：「爺爺好厲害哦！」如果住在市區，分送鄰居也皆大歡喜。但是在瀨戶內海的窮村釣魚，和漁夫沒有什麼不同。在只有老人的村子裡每天釣魚，一點也不快樂。本來還有這種夢想的經營者，現在都已打消念頭。童年時釣魚是很快樂，當社長時偶爾去釣魚也很快樂。可是真正退休後天天釣魚，就不是這麼回事了。
那位想環遊世界拍攝照片的人還是繼續旅行，只是不再拍照了。他當副社長時去過南美洲的伊瓜蘇瀑布，拍了一些幻燈片回來，當時是很稀奇，他以「副社長的南美報告」為題，宴請屬下，同時展示攝影成果。席間讚語不絕：「照相技術真是一流啊！」「哇！我也想去一次看看。」真個是賓主盡歡。他退休後又去尼羅河上游，拍回一些珍貴的照片，但是這回屬下就不捧場了。不是推說有事在忙，就是告罪下週有預算會議或要出差，理由儘管不一樣，總之就是沒人來看。就連孫子若不利誘也不肯來。結果落得只有和看過實景的老妻一起整理相簿的下場。從此他出門時不再帶沉重的手動照相機，換成用過即丟的即可拍相機了。看來，即使完全實現年老後的夢想，也沒有當初所想的那般快樂。
我的結論只有一句，這輩子都不要說：「我以後要怎樣怎樣……」。我的建議是，如果有「以後」想做的事，現在，沒錯，就請現在去做！想做的時候正當其時，沒有延後的理由。現在覺得快樂的事，上了年紀以後，不一定覺得快樂。更積極地說，現在就做覺得快樂的事，才能學會年老也覺得快樂的方法，退休後就能成為真正的玩家，快樂地生活。
∼摘自：想做的事就去做！（作者：大前研一）
挫折是年輕人最好的禮物
他剛從軍中退伍時，只有高中學歷，無一技之長，只好到一家印刷廠，擔任「送貨員」。
一天，這年輕人將一整車四、五十梱的書，送到某大學的七樓辦公室，當他先把兩三捆的書扛到電梯口等候時，
一位五十多歲的警衛走過來，說：「這電梯是給教授、老師搭乘的，其他人一律都不准搭，你必須走樓梯。」
年輕人向警衛解釋：「我不是學生，我是要送一整車的書到七樓辦公室，這是你們學校訂的書啊！」
可是警衛一臉無情的說：「不行就是不行，你不是教授也不是老師,，不准搭電梯。」
兩人在電梯口吵半天，但警衛依然不予放行，年輕人心想，這一車的書，要搬完至少要來回走七層，樓梯二十多趟，會累死人的。
後來，年輕人無法忍受這「無理的刁難」，就心一橫，把四、五十梱書搬放在大廳角落，不顧一切的走人。
之後，年輕人向印刷廠老闆解釋事情原委，獲得諒解但也向老闆辭職，並且立刻到書局買整套高中教材和參考書，含淚發誓，我一定要奮發圖強，考上大學，我絕不再讓別人「瞧不起」。
這年輕人在聯考前半年，天天閉門苦讀十四個小時，因為他知道，他的時間不多 了，他已無退路可走，每當他偷懶、懈怠時，腦中就想起「警衛不准他搭電梯」被羞辱、歧視的一幕，也就打起精神、加倍努力用功。
後來，這年輕人終於考上某大學醫學院，如今二十多年過去了，他也變成一家開業診所的中年醫生，然而他靜心一想，當時要不是「警衛無理刁難和歧視」。他怎能從屈辱中擦乾眼淚、勇敢站起來，
而那位被他痛恨的警衛，不也是他一生中的恩人嗎？
這故事讓我想起，唸高中時，班上有位調皮的男生，成績普通並不傑出。
一 天，物理老師發下一艱深的試題，要同學當家庭作業，隔天上課時，每個同學幾乎都答不出來，可是卻只有那調皮的陳同學解出來了。
「陳某某，你老實說，這作業是不是你哥哥幫你做的呢？我知道你哥哥的物理很厲害。去年我教過他………」老師問。
「是我自己做的啊！老師你怎麼可以誣賴我呢？」
「少來，你少騙我啦！不是自己寫的，幹嘛那麼不要臉，硬是說是自己寫的呢？」 老師站在台上嘲諷的說：「哎呀！你少丟臉了啦！你的程度我很了解，你不用騙我啦！」
當時我轉過頭，看到小陳低著頭，抿著嘴眼光閃著淚水，他沒有再回嘴，只是一直低著頭，假裝看著書，而他的眼淚也一顆顆的滴在課本上。
聯考放榜後，爭氣的他考上台大物理系，當兵退伍後，他更留學美國，現在已拿到「物理學博士」的學位回國。
而我永遠忘不了在高中時他對我說的一句話：「那一題明明是我自己做對的，他(物理老師)幹嘛不相信我，
還當眾嘲笑我、瞧不起我呢？
以後，我的物理，一定要比他更厲害」。
經國先生曾說：「失意時需要忍，得意時需要淡」。
的確人都有失意，不順遂的時候，然而我更相信。「挫折，是年輕人最好的禮物」 。
人只有在遭遇挫折，被他人百般刁難、岐視、嘲諷時，才能「打醒自己」，讓自己被「當頭棒喝」而驚醒過來，
這豈不是一生中最珍貴的禮物嗎？
因此，如果現在的挫折，能帶給你未來幸福，請忍受它。
「生命中的每個挫折、每個傷痛、每個打擊,都有它的意義」。
一天，這年輕人將一整車四、五十梱的書，送到某大學的七樓辦公室，當他先把兩三捆的書扛到電梯口等候時，
一位五十多歲的警衛走過來，說：「這電梯是給教授、老師搭乘的，其他人一律都不准搭，你必須走樓梯。」
年輕人向警衛解釋：「我不是學生，我是要送一整車的書到七樓辦公室，這是你們學校訂的書啊！」
可是警衛一臉無情的說：「不行就是不行，你不是教授也不是老師,，不准搭電梯。」
兩人在電梯口吵半天，但警衛依然不予放行，年輕人心想，這一車的書，要搬完至少要來回走七層，樓梯二十多趟，會累死人的。
後來，年輕人無法忍受這「無理的刁難」，就心一橫，把四、五十梱書搬放在大廳角落，不顧一切的走人。
之後，年輕人向印刷廠老闆解釋事情原委，獲得諒解但也向老闆辭職，並且立刻到書局買整套高中教材和參考書，含淚發誓，我一定要奮發圖強，考上大學，我絕不再讓別人「瞧不起」。
這年輕人在聯考前半年，天天閉門苦讀十四個小時，因為他知道，他的時間不多 了，他已無退路可走，每當他偷懶、懈怠時，腦中就想起「警衛不准他搭電梯」被羞辱、歧視的一幕，也就打起精神、加倍努力用功。
後來，這年輕人終於考上某大學醫學院，如今二十多年過去了，他也變成一家開業診所的中年醫生，然而他靜心一想，當時要不是「警衛無理刁難和歧視」。他怎能從屈辱中擦乾眼淚、勇敢站起來，
而那位被他痛恨的警衛，不也是他一生中的恩人嗎？
這故事讓我想起，唸高中時，班上有位調皮的男生，成績普通並不傑出。
一 天，物理老師發下一艱深的試題，要同學當家庭作業，隔天上課時，每個同學幾乎都答不出來，可是卻只有那調皮的陳同學解出來了。
「陳某某，你老實說，這作業是不是你哥哥幫你做的呢？我知道你哥哥的物理很厲害。去年我教過他………」老師問。
「是我自己做的啊！老師你怎麼可以誣賴我呢？」
「少來，你少騙我啦！不是自己寫的，幹嘛那麼不要臉，硬是說是自己寫的呢？」 老師站在台上嘲諷的說：「哎呀！你少丟臉了啦！你的程度我很了解，你不用騙我啦！」
當時我轉過頭，看到小陳低著頭，抿著嘴眼光閃著淚水，他沒有再回嘴，只是一直低著頭，假裝看著書，而他的眼淚也一顆顆的滴在課本上。
聯考放榜後，爭氣的他考上台大物理系，當兵退伍後，他更留學美國，現在已拿到「物理學博士」的學位回國。
而我永遠忘不了在高中時他對我說的一句話：「那一題明明是我自己做對的，他(物理老師)幹嘛不相信我，
還當眾嘲笑我、瞧不起我呢？
以後，我的物理，一定要比他更厲害」。
經國先生曾說：「失意時需要忍，得意時需要淡」。
的確人都有失意，不順遂的時候，然而我更相信。「挫折，是年輕人最好的禮物」 。
人只有在遭遇挫折，被他人百般刁難、岐視、嘲諷時，才能「打醒自己」，讓自己被「當頭棒喝」而驚醒過來，
這豈不是一生中最珍貴的禮物嗎？
因此，如果現在的挫折，能帶給你未來幸福，請忍受它。
「生命中的每個挫折、每個傷痛、每個打擊,都有它的意義」。
"Everyone Is So Bullish": Why Peter Boockvar Is Still Bearish on America
The International Monetary Fund may be predicting a gradual economic recovery for the U.S. but there's nothing gradual about the way stocks are rallying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just capped its best monthly gain since 2002 and the S&P 500's rallied more than 12% since July 10th.
Have we gone too far, too fast?
Peter Boockvar, equity strategist for Miller Tabak thinks so. "Right now everyone is so bullish after a 50% rally. That should be concerning," he says.
He's bearish on the U.S. markets for two primary reasons:
•Too much debt both at the consumer and federal level will stunt growth.
•The eventual unwinding of our current fiscal policy will be painful. In the meantime, that same fiscal policy has the ability to prop up the market. As he puts it, "when you’re in a money printing world we’re in right now asset prices can lift."
Boockvar favors international markets. "I've been bullish on commodities, emerging markets that produce commodities and Asia - particularly China, that has driven the rally in commodities," he says. Admittedly, China may be due for a pullback after an 87% run up in the Shanghai Composite this year. If that happens Boockvar's confident the "U.S. will be following."
Have we gone too far, too fast?
Peter Boockvar, equity strategist for Miller Tabak thinks so. "Right now everyone is so bullish after a 50% rally. That should be concerning," he says.
He's bearish on the U.S. markets for two primary reasons:
•Too much debt both at the consumer and federal level will stunt growth.
•The eventual unwinding of our current fiscal policy will be painful. In the meantime, that same fiscal policy has the ability to prop up the market. As he puts it, "when you’re in a money printing world we’re in right now asset prices can lift."
Boockvar favors international markets. "I've been bullish on commodities, emerging markets that produce commodities and Asia - particularly China, that has driven the rally in commodities," he says. Admittedly, China may be due for a pullback after an 87% run up in the Shanghai Composite this year. If that happens Boockvar's confident the "U.S. will be following."
不要對生活不滿，因為主控權在你手上
記得在王文華的書中有這一幕，他提到當他在面試員工的時候，會問四個問題，「有沒有女朋友？」、「你去過最好玩的地方是哪裡？」、「你吃過最好吃的東西是什麼？」、「會做菜嗎？」，而或許多數的人為了迎合面試主考官，都會有很專業化的回答，一切以工作為重，而這樣的回答，會讓他覺得這個人對於生活沒有熱情，因為工作要做的好，生活品質就得高，好的員工，必須對於生活有起碼的興趣…
我認為很有道理，因為工作是為了生活，而不是生活為了工作，這並不是說生活的品質或者說物質生活要如何的講究，或許有些人會認為都已經快活不下去了，還講究什麼品質，講究什麼生活情趣，這太不現實了，何況現在的時局越來越差…
其實，不是這樣的，而是應該「學會生活」，不管什麼處境都要活在當下，並不是說天天大魚大肉，出入高級飯店，行必高級轎車，穿必名牌服飾，擁有更多的財富的確可以讓人更快樂，但卻不是對等的，看看非洲或者中南美洲一些窮困人家的生活，他們買不起名牌，吃不起大餐，然而他們的臉上永遠不缺笑容，甚至沒有所謂「憂鬱症」的存在，為什麼呢？如果你還有能力對於生活不滿，那代表你的生活比他們好的太多了…
抱怨以及不滿其實是多餘的，當然某種程度這也代表對於生活的一種追求，因為不滿足就是推動人們追求更好的一種動力，這是企業家常說的一句話，只是光會抱怨以表達不滿，如同無痛呻吟一般，不僅對於實質生活改善沒有幫助，還會造成週遭親友們的厭煩，最後只會把自己逼成一座孤島，自己孤立起來，甚至憂鬱症就是這樣產生的…
何必呢？掌握你自己生活的主控權不正在你手上嗎？想要選擇過什麼生活？或者說想用什麼心態面對自己的處境？擁有這些答案的選擇權，不都是你自己嗎？何況我們經常聽到一句話「痛並快樂著」，面對窘境，選擇面對，或是選擇改變，或許當下都是痛苦的，然而當你做好選擇面對時，內心不都是快樂的嗎？我想地球上許許多多貧困地區的人們就是如此吧，生活總還是要面對，不如就快樂的面對…
或許，要重拾起自己的主控權，坦然且勇敢的面對抉擇並不容易，這是因為你的感性戰勝了理性，所以你應該做的就是理智的分析你的現況，可以藉由一些管理學上面的分析方法，比如說最簡單的SWOT分析，讓自己很客觀的、很冷靜的思考，然後確實的記錄下自己眼前所面臨的困擾或者說劣勢，然後列出你所期望的生活方式，以及要達到這個期望的生活需要付出什麼代價，是否有能力承擔這個改變，或者該尋求什麼協助…等等，這種理性的分析會給你很大的勇氣與動力，當然最後還是要真正的付諸行動…
也曾經在網路上面看過一篇被轉載了很多次的文章《不是路到了盡頭，而是該轉彎了》，我認為轉彎有兩種解釋方式，一種是轉變心態，一種是人生方向的轉變，不管是哪一種，都讓自己漂亮的轉個彎吧…
我認為很有道理，因為工作是為了生活，而不是生活為了工作，這並不是說生活的品質或者說物質生活要如何的講究，或許有些人會認為都已經快活不下去了，還講究什麼品質，講究什麼生活情趣，這太不現實了，何況現在的時局越來越差…
其實，不是這樣的，而是應該「學會生活」，不管什麼處境都要活在當下，並不是說天天大魚大肉，出入高級飯店，行必高級轎車，穿必名牌服飾，擁有更多的財富的確可以讓人更快樂，但卻不是對等的，看看非洲或者中南美洲一些窮困人家的生活，他們買不起名牌，吃不起大餐，然而他們的臉上永遠不缺笑容，甚至沒有所謂「憂鬱症」的存在，為什麼呢？如果你還有能力對於生活不滿，那代表你的生活比他們好的太多了…
抱怨以及不滿其實是多餘的，當然某種程度這也代表對於生活的一種追求，因為不滿足就是推動人們追求更好的一種動力，這是企業家常說的一句話，只是光會抱怨以表達不滿，如同無痛呻吟一般，不僅對於實質生活改善沒有幫助，還會造成週遭親友們的厭煩，最後只會把自己逼成一座孤島，自己孤立起來，甚至憂鬱症就是這樣產生的…
何必呢？掌握你自己生活的主控權不正在你手上嗎？想要選擇過什麼生活？或者說想用什麼心態面對自己的處境？擁有這些答案的選擇權，不都是你自己嗎？何況我們經常聽到一句話「痛並快樂著」，面對窘境，選擇面對，或是選擇改變，或許當下都是痛苦的，然而當你做好選擇面對時，內心不都是快樂的嗎？我想地球上許許多多貧困地區的人們就是如此吧，生活總還是要面對，不如就快樂的面對…
或許，要重拾起自己的主控權，坦然且勇敢的面對抉擇並不容易，這是因為你的感性戰勝了理性，所以你應該做的就是理智的分析你的現況，可以藉由一些管理學上面的分析方法，比如說最簡單的SWOT分析，讓自己很客觀的、很冷靜的思考，然後確實的記錄下自己眼前所面臨的困擾或者說劣勢，然後列出你所期望的生活方式，以及要達到這個期望的生活需要付出什麼代價，是否有能力承擔這個改變，或者該尋求什麼協助…等等，這種理性的分析會給你很大的勇氣與動力，當然最後還是要真正的付諸行動…
也曾經在網路上面看過一篇被轉載了很多次的文章《不是路到了盡頭，而是該轉彎了》，我認為轉彎有兩種解釋方式，一種是轉變心態，一種是人生方向的轉變，不管是哪一種，都讓自己漂亮的轉個彎吧…
Sunday, August 2, 2009
I spotted a very good buy for investment
Auric is a very thinly traded stock. It is in the food industry. An excellent buy in my humble opinion.
I just checked this out:
NAV = $1.75
NTA = $0.87
Current market price is $0.505 cents.
good dividends !
usually give $0.02 after 1st Half
but its 1Q09 is loss-making, hence I not sure if they still going to give out any $$ dividend.
BUT personally I won't buy yet for below reasons
1) i dont really know the indo owners. Are they pro-shdrs?
2) they had been running a full-yr loss last yr. this yr seems like gg to be loss too.
3) most imptly, there is no indication they gg to return the cash to shdrs. and no short-term nor mid-term reason to push up the share px
I checked it out and my analytical mind says it is a good buy. Always look for reasons why stock are traded at great discount to book value i.e. poor earnings in 08/09. Just looking at the cash position it is definitely a good buy. Co. has interest in Delifrance and Food Junction plus many other e.g. Gourmet, Sunshine, SCS butter, etc. Market price minus cash per stock =5 cents only.
I think the Delifrance biz is a killer. Reported that the food retail segment has op loss of $3M. Food Junction, reported quarter profit of $0.9M...so it means that the Delifrance biz had close to $4M of quarter loss? Unless, they report other biz under this segment. It would appear to be so.
Think long run co. will prosper and stockholder earn the rewards for being so patient.
I just checked this out:
NAV = $1.75
NTA = $0.87
Current market price is $0.505 cents.
good dividends !
usually give $0.02 after 1st Half
but its 1Q09 is loss-making, hence I not sure if they still going to give out any $$ dividend.
BUT personally I won't buy yet for below reasons
1) i dont really know the indo owners. Are they pro-shdrs?
2) they had been running a full-yr loss last yr. this yr seems like gg to be loss too.
3) most imptly, there is no indication they gg to return the cash to shdrs. and no short-term nor mid-term reason to push up the share px
I checked it out and my analytical mind says it is a good buy. Always look for reasons why stock are traded at great discount to book value i.e. poor earnings in 08/09. Just looking at the cash position it is definitely a good buy. Co. has interest in Delifrance and Food Junction plus many other e.g. Gourmet, Sunshine, SCS butter, etc. Market price minus cash per stock =5 cents only.
I think the Delifrance biz is a killer. Reported that the food retail segment has op loss of $3M. Food Junction, reported quarter profit of $0.9M...so it means that the Delifrance biz had close to $4M of quarter loss? Unless, they report other biz under this segment. It would appear to be so.
Think long run co. will prosper and stockholder earn the rewards for being so patient.
FinaOne : Deeply Undervalued ?
As of 31 March 2009 :
Net asset value per share (cents) 50.18 USD.
EPS based on diluted basis (cents) 0.09 USD.
Company has just proposed to dispose of a piece of land + building for S$123,908,400.
The company is actively buying back shares.
DIVIDEND
Ex.Date: 14 May 2008
USD 0.03
Currently traded at around 30 cents SGD.
Is this counter deeply undervalued ?
Net asset value per share (cents) 50.18 USD.
EPS based on diluted basis (cents) 0.09 USD.
Company has just proposed to dispose of a piece of land + building for S$123,908,400.
The company is actively buying back shares.
DIVIDEND
Ex.Date: 14 May 2008
USD 0.03
Currently traded at around 30 cents SGD.
Is this counter deeply undervalued ?
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