不要丢掉你的炒股天赋
有个人问胡老师，除了统计数字之外，你为什么这么厉害？我在华尔街预测这么神准是有另外一个原因，今天我看到你们很高兴，我给你们汇报一下，是归功于我的左膝盖。我的左膝盖遇到大跌的时候一定会痛，非常准，屡试不爽，非常的奇怪，我自己觉得好像天赋异禀。真的是每次股市要大跌，它就隐隐作痛，甚至到以后变成了连涨的时候也会痛。有一次我受不了了，刚好要演讲，我就在台北找了一个对有名的骨科医生。他是我的粉丝，他非常欣赏我的演讲，尤其对我的预测能力感到很惊奇。他说胡老师，你的膝盖毛病有必要看一下，我觉得相当的严重。当时我就到他的诊所，经过非常仔细的研究，他看了两个钟头，用电脑各方面分析研究，他告诉我说，没有毛病，他找不出毛病。不过他诚恳的建议我，要不然这样子，胡老师，想办法传染给我吧。
再回想一下，怎么会造成这个原因呢？我想最大的原因是当时我在华尔街的时候，当时我们没有电脑绘图来研究股票。所以我必须要趴在冷冰冰的地板上画图，我每天画图要花到凌晨两三点钟。我每天都要画图，股票的图形是非常重要的。我常常画，画了两三年下来，天寒地冻，我就得了像风湿这样一种状况。我发现风湿和人的心情的感应会联系起来。所以在我研究行情的时候，当我发现行情从牛市要转为熊市的时候，我就会紧张，我一紧张，就会传递到我的左膝盖。
所以每个人都对股市有一个天赋，但是我们把天赋丢掉了。我可以告诉你们，股票市场是为女生设计的，因为她们有天赋。为什么她们有天赋呢？她们有非常强的第六感。我们举例说钢铁、航空股等等，举例说太多的股票，说这个股票便宜吗。很多女生也说，这个股票很便宜，还会再涨。但是问她们的老公，她们老公说我哪知道。我发现，总是女生对、男生错。女生对任何东西的价格有天生的第六感，再加上后天的培育。后天怎么培养呢？天天去买菜，天天去买衣服，她们会对任何一种物品有一种感应，知道股票的价格是便宜是贵。
那么这么有天赋的女生为什么还会赔钱呢？我可以告诉你，只有一个原因，在座的女性投资朋友你们要注意，你们犯了一个很严重的错误，你们的原因在股市中和男生是一样的，因为你们被男生污染了。为什么被污染呢？因为你们会去请教你们的老公，这个股票明天要不要卖呢？所以今天胡老师到这里来给你们打气了。
牛市仍未结束，刚刚进入“下半场”
我们要讲严肃一点了，很多人想知道股市下一步会何去何从。内地的股市，世界各个主要的股市我都在研究。我们讲到上证指数，我拿上证指数来做一个参考。6000点达到一个平衡点，平衡点之后你要注意了，从现在开始股市正式进入下半场，这点非常的重要。
“沪深股市的牛市是不是结束了”？我跟她讲，“没有结束，不过我肯定的给大家讲，这像一场球赛一样，上半场已经打完了，我们现在已经开始进入下半场了，我们要进入下半场的比赛了。”
现在我们处在下半场的牛市行情中，节奏要加快，胡老师提醒大家，现在开始要好好的做股票。我们要把握好每一次的机会。胡老师一次提醒，我们做股票随时随地要设身处地想我们今天处在什么阶段，
胡老师这么有经验的告诉你们，牛市的行情进入下半场，我参考的都有统计的数字。我看过全世界所有新兴市场的统计数字，全世界欧美的股市我都有参考，甚至我把美国硅谷五、六年前发生泡沫化的状况，硅谷所有的科技股、网络股出现泡沫的情况，我都有参考。当时我进行了准确的预测，一点都不差。当时我在美国演讲，他们都说胡老师我们发了，我就告诫他们，赶快要落袋为安。一个月以后，在硅谷的开户人数达到了35%，就表示开始粥少僧多。那时候几家研究公司的人员提供硅谷的开户资料数给我，发现当时硅谷开户人口数已经达到了37%，100人中有37人都已经买股票了，这会发生什么现象，要买股票的人全部都上车了。
所以我发明一个名言，“买股票一点都不重要，重要的是卖股票”。
你们把整个的注意力放在卖股票，而不要放在买股票。买股票没有选择。为什么呢？你可以选择自己的出身背景吗？你可以选爸爸妈妈吗？你不能选。你能选出生的年代，有人说喜欢出生在十八世纪麻烦你把我送回去，可以吗？所以买股票是同样的道理，你可以选择回到两年前900点的时候吗？
我们能做什么？我们能做我们控制的东西，我们可以控制的是卖点。一般人在买点上头发都搞白了，但是他们对卖点都不重视。甚至我可以告诉你们，你们买什么股票都不重要，今天我来这里就要教你们怎么掌握卖点。我今天教你们主要的就是要掌握卖点，因为买点不能掌握，你不能回到900点。我们今天的演讲正式开始。
首先，大家发自内心回答我一个问题。我们一起来，我要听到你们的声音，我们买股票的目的究竟是什么？
答：赚钱。
胡立阳： 我为你们感到万分的难过，买股票的目的居然是为了赚钱，我真的很高兴来到这里，所以我一定要纠正你们的错误观念。假设你们把赚钱设定为买股票的第一目的，我可以告诉你们，你们已经踏入了错误的第一步。
买股票的目的绝对不是为了赚钱，它的第一目的是什么？是增加生活的情趣。因为买股票真的很好玩，非常的愉快，非常的好玩一件事。你把股票想得那么的神圣，那么严肃。像有些人说，胡老师，您推荐一只股票给我，我小赚一点就可以了，可是我绝对不能赔。他真幽默风趣。
我可以告诉你，你要觉得买股票的第一目的就是赚钱的话，我可以告诉你们，往往就是输家。我们投资股票，不要把它当成你的职业，而是当成你增加生活情趣的一种方式，我今天好闷我去看场电影，或者是买点股票，你抱着这样的心情常常会赚钱。
牛市进入下半场的三大征兆
在牛市下半场，我推荐过很多投资人买进，照样有好股票。在牛市下半场，你每一口要吃进去，你不要买了一股20元进去，22元就卖掉了。我可以告诉里，在下半场你没有机会了，你一定要做到大赚小赔。利用我的方法，一路要吃到饱。因为不小心，篮球场下半场会发生很多的状况，比如说如果你挑选到了一个坏股票，下半场你还要乱来，你就没有机会了。
牛市进入到下半场的三大征兆：
第一，板块之间轮动快速。也许两天、三天是水泥股，也许两天、三天是医疗技术股，也许两天、三天是石油股。板块之间转得很快，让你眼花缭乱，简直不知道主流股在哪里。板块移动很快会造成很多个股的一日行情，表现一天，这只股票今天涨停了，你一追，不涨了。这是牛市进入下半场阶段的第一个征兆。
第二个征兆：赚了指数赔了股价，这是股市三大悲剧之一。陈太太恭喜你，今天上证指数又涨了100点的时候，你发现他没有回应时，你要知道了，他的股票有可能跌了。
牛市的下半场常常出现赚了指数赔了股价，这是第二个征兆。
第三个征兆：你会发现，我们的上证指数会和欧美主要的股市在脉动、起伏上开始接轨。华尔街大跌，也许我们会跟着跌了。前一阵的美国次级债，全球在大跌，上证指数照涨。可是，当牛市进入下半场，上证指数会和欧美的股市接轨。为什么呢？因为大家紧张，因为找不到方向了，最主要是大家开始紧张了。因为大家知道现在上证指数不是900点，是6000点了。看到华尔街大跌200点，你不要跟我讲，没有问题。我何尝不希望股市天天涨呢？
很多人问我，胡老师我用您的方法赚钱了，但是我不快乐。我说你怎么不快乐呢？因为不好玩，我每天坐在这里，不准卖，叫我把手绑起来，但我不快乐，我喜欢当平民老百姓的日子，可以炒进炒出。那么我们设一个“进三退一”的位子。我们向下设10%，向上设30%的割肉点。所以，20元就上设26，下到18，哪个数字先到，就卖。你同时玩十只股票，你肯定不会觉得无聊。这有什么好处呢？一赚顶三赔，只要你赚对一次，这样多玩下去，你真的会变成一个小富婆，因为一赚顶三赔，这是进三退一，胡老师在华尔街发明的华尔兹。今天没有办法，否则我会给你们表演一下华尔兹。
所以投资股票不要花什么时间了，不要问人家，你只要知道现在是在牛市的下半场了。你不要问，张老师会不会到6400、胡老师会不会到6500？不重要，到多少点和你有什么事？你反正是20买21卖的，关你什么事，所以不重要。胡老师在这里告诉你们，因为你们有人性的弱点，在股市中不要自己操盘了，让数字来帮你操盘。
农夫播种术：在股市中做到进退有序
农夫播种术的原理非常的简单，但是我在华尔街刚推出的时候受到的老美的攻击。当时我接到了至少一千封以上的攻击我的信，说漏洞百出，但是在六个月以后，他们证明了我推荐的农夫播种术是完美无缺，而且在世界股市中绝对适用，绝对万无一失。
农夫播种术自从胡老师发明以后，这也是使我获得“股市神童”的称号。一只股票20元买进，下设3%的割肉点，为什么这次不设10%，因为想更热闹一点。为什么设3%，以后有时间我给你们解释。在19.4元的时候一定要卖掉，表示这只股票和你没有缘分，和你没有缘分的股票你就卖掉吧。我可以这么讲，很多股票你怎么买来买去都是赚钱的，就是有一只股票你怎么买就是赔钱的，没有缘分的股票割肉割掉。
只要每上涨3%，我们一开始只买一手，留一点钱在后面加码。我们一手一手来加，每涨3%你就加一手，假设这只股票20元，到20.6元你就加一手，到了5%的时候再加一手，永远记得，最多加一手，不要头重脚轻。这个股票涨到21.2了再加一手，第三天打电话给胡老师说，涨停了再加一手。碰到下跌，跌3%就减一手，以收盘价为准，如果跌倒24.75元的时候你就减一手。用这种方法加一手3%，减一手3%，涨跌3%加一手减一手。在一个牛市行情中，用农夫播种术只要六个月的时间，你天天可以请我吃牛排，而且你可以把你们家的苹果店送给我，请你相信这样可怕的威力。
因为一只好股票从20到60元，至少30手，50手，你做梦都没有想到。听了农夫播种术，你不但可以大赚，而且你可以把这个获利发扬光大，因为你手中的一手变成的37手，所以一只好股票来了，你要统统带回家。这个原因是什么？原因是一只好股票一定是这样一个图形，没有第二个图形，我画给你们看。
你们看到什么，你们可以看到一手变成37手，你们会做到大赚小赔。所以有人问我，上次您来演讲的时候推荐我们买某某银行，我很高兴，我买了30手。我问他多少钱买的？10元买的，现在16了。我可以给您讲，你很显然没有听胡老师的演讲，你怎么可能手上只有30手？现在你手上应该是有140手了，不应该是30手呀。你会问我，为什么一开始只有一手，
人在股市中的预测不那么的重要，包括胡老师的预测也仅供参考，真正厉害的是数字，直接告诉你是赚是赔，让数字来告诉你。所以，你要一百万手都没有关系，两手三手也没有关系，我建议是一手，为什么呢？因为很多人玩到农夫播种术不想玩了，但是股票不动呀，他们很想股票是3%，但是股票不动，他们的股票总在2%左右。还有刚好碰到在下跌阶段的，那个阶段你买农夫播种术也不好玩，怎么买第二天都要割肉割掉。不过那都叫做见树不见林不重要，重要的是长期，只要买到一个好股票一定是这样一个图形。你买到是一个不对的股票，所以我为什么建议你们买一手，少量多样，你可以一次买很多种，只要你有时间，就用农夫播种术，你可以忙到每天满头大汗，很好玩，进退有序，你会变成一个小富翁。只要碰到一个多头行情，你不但不会卖掉股票，还会大赚钱。
我们一般的投资人刚好做反，买了一堆股票，会发芽的股票被卖掉了，跌的股票说是长期投资了，刚刚开始都说是炒短线，但是最后都经常来开股东会了。
这真的是股市的三大悲剧之一。 股市三大悲剧是
第一是赚了指数，赔了股价。
第二个悲剧是抓龟走鳖。
第三个悲剧是想不起来了。
现在大家懂了农夫播种术的原理，就知道今后股市该怎么操作了。
提问：我想问一下，您说的6000点的调整是不是意味着中期调整的到来？
胡立阳：很多人都在回5000点，4000点，让数目字告诉我们答案。指数从高位开始回跌，任何的跌幅在10-15左右，就根本无所谓，但是不能回调接近在20%，如果接近20%，而且指数没有出现一个像样的大反弹，表示指数要进入中期回调了。我可以告诉你们，中期回调要整理多久？很可能要整理一个月左右.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
“股市教父”胡立阳：奥运前出逃A股肯定后悔
从巴菲特、索罗斯到彼得·林奇，华尔街大鳄们纷纷来A股市场传教。前美林证券副总裁胡立阳也不甘示弱，这位连巴菲特都看不上眼的台湾“股市教父”在北京告诉大陆股民，北京奥运会召开不意味着牛市行情的结束，相反，任何提前放弃的股民都会后悔。他发出此番劝告的背景是，大量股民在奥运会前都随时准备撤退，很多人更打算提前到5月甚至3月就撤退，以回避想象中的所谓风险。
黄金、石油肯定会大跌
记者：目前很多基金、机构对奥运会之后A股走势预测悲观，您觉得呢？
胡立阳：每个人都想在奥运会之前跑，你相信我这一次，一旦你跑了，肯定会后悔。我的建议是，如果你成功出逃，那赶紧再买回来。
记者：为什么这么说呢？
胡立阳：现在所有人都很紧张，一有风吹草动就都想跑，不仅A股，整个世界股市都是如此。但是要知道，别人任何错误都是在为你累积财富。
记者：可是很多机构从国际因素分析，比如说美元走弱，都认为A股在2008年下半年将是一个关口。
胡立阳：我知道索罗斯、巴菲特他们都在高调唱空美元，我认为美元肯定会走强。
记者：这似乎与主流看法正好相反啊。
胡立阳：这么说的根据是黄金、石油肯定会大跌。目前黄金、石油价格之所以飙涨，根源是“假性需求”，全世界的人都在把钱交给私募、基金，这些人拿着钱四处恶炒，造成假性需求泛滥、价格飞涨。所以大家千万不要相信巴菲特这些人的话，他们做高了石油、黄金的价格，现在就等着别人来接手呢。
“价值投资已经不管用了”
记者：您最早提出A股已经进入“牛市下半场”了，能解释一下吗？
胡立阳：“牛市下半场”有四个基本特征：一是板块之间移动快速，二是个股暴涨暴跌现象严重，三是赚了指数赔了股价，四是与国际股市联动加强。
记者：这种情况下股民该如何操作呢？
胡立阳：下半场肯定还会“高潮迭起”，但是这种市场环境下价值投资已经不管用了，因为已经不存在“价值洼地”了，下面必须完全依靠技术分析才能取胜，股民尤其应该注意对消息的收集和分析。
记者：收集消息？但是目前有很多股民靠小道消息炒股被严重套牢，比如最近出现的全聚德。
胡立阳：对消息要进行分析。我的建议是，一旦出现消息说哪只股票会涨多少，那就是你该卖出的时候。像全聚德这样，大家都听说要涨到多少了，你还进去，这不是找套吗？
“我最恨道貌岸然的人”
记者：听说您从华尔街出来之后就没再炒股？
胡立阳：是的。离开华尔街之后，我主要从事股民教育。我的理念是，一个自己做着股票、期货的人，怎么可能对股民说真话？这就是我与巴菲特他们最大的区别。
记者：可是他们确实成功了，也赚到钱了。
胡立阳：他们赚的是广大股民的钱。我最恨道貌岸然的人。没有人要妨碍你当“股市投手”，但是你别伪装成教育家，你根本不够格。不久前我在华尔街作了一次演讲，结束之后，一个做石油期货的人来台上高喊“石油要上200美元一桶”。我当时就说，“你最近是不是买了很多合约？”那个人承认了。我说，“你这不是有意误导投资者吗？”
记者：这么说会不会有人觉得您是“酸葡萄心态”啊？
胡立阳：我对钱的态度很无所谓的，当初我放弃美林证券的近千万年薪，回到亚洲搞股民投资教育的时候就想通了。而且我的资历完全有资格批评他们，因为我比他们发迹的早，巴菲特二十年前就找过我，我没理他。彼得·林奇是我学弟，我在美林证券大红大紫的时候，他还一个劲儿想认识我呢。
黄金、石油肯定会大跌
记者：目前很多基金、机构对奥运会之后A股走势预测悲观，您觉得呢？
胡立阳：每个人都想在奥运会之前跑，你相信我这一次，一旦你跑了，肯定会后悔。我的建议是，如果你成功出逃，那赶紧再买回来。
记者：为什么这么说呢？
胡立阳：现在所有人都很紧张，一有风吹草动就都想跑，不仅A股，整个世界股市都是如此。但是要知道，别人任何错误都是在为你累积财富。
记者：可是很多机构从国际因素分析，比如说美元走弱，都认为A股在2008年下半年将是一个关口。
胡立阳：我知道索罗斯、巴菲特他们都在高调唱空美元，我认为美元肯定会走强。
记者：这似乎与主流看法正好相反啊。
胡立阳：这么说的根据是黄金、石油肯定会大跌。目前黄金、石油价格之所以飙涨，根源是“假性需求”，全世界的人都在把钱交给私募、基金，这些人拿着钱四处恶炒，造成假性需求泛滥、价格飞涨。所以大家千万不要相信巴菲特这些人的话，他们做高了石油、黄金的价格，现在就等着别人来接手呢。
“价值投资已经不管用了”
记者：您最早提出A股已经进入“牛市下半场”了，能解释一下吗？
胡立阳：“牛市下半场”有四个基本特征：一是板块之间移动快速，二是个股暴涨暴跌现象严重，三是赚了指数赔了股价，四是与国际股市联动加强。
记者：这种情况下股民该如何操作呢？
胡立阳：下半场肯定还会“高潮迭起”，但是这种市场环境下价值投资已经不管用了，因为已经不存在“价值洼地”了，下面必须完全依靠技术分析才能取胜，股民尤其应该注意对消息的收集和分析。
记者：收集消息？但是目前有很多股民靠小道消息炒股被严重套牢，比如最近出现的全聚德。
胡立阳：对消息要进行分析。我的建议是，一旦出现消息说哪只股票会涨多少，那就是你该卖出的时候。像全聚德这样，大家都听说要涨到多少了，你还进去，这不是找套吗？
“我最恨道貌岸然的人”
记者：听说您从华尔街出来之后就没再炒股？
胡立阳：是的。离开华尔街之后，我主要从事股民教育。我的理念是，一个自己做着股票、期货的人，怎么可能对股民说真话？这就是我与巴菲特他们最大的区别。
记者：可是他们确实成功了，也赚到钱了。
胡立阳：他们赚的是广大股民的钱。我最恨道貌岸然的人。没有人要妨碍你当“股市投手”，但是你别伪装成教育家，你根本不够格。不久前我在华尔街作了一次演讲，结束之后，一个做石油期货的人来台上高喊“石油要上200美元一桶”。我当时就说，“你最近是不是买了很多合约？”那个人承认了。我说，“你这不是有意误导投资者吗？”
记者：这么说会不会有人觉得您是“酸葡萄心态”啊？
胡立阳：我对钱的态度很无所谓的，当初我放弃美林证券的近千万年薪，回到亚洲搞股民投资教育的时候就想通了。而且我的资历完全有资格批评他们，因为我比他们发迹的早，巴菲特二十年前就找过我，我没理他。彼得·林奇是我学弟，我在美林证券大红大紫的时候，他还一个劲儿想认识我呢。
华尔街大师胡立阳谈投资秘诀
股市赚钱的人都“不正常”
有人问我，为什么我在股市中打滚了一辈子永远都不赚钱？我在上海演讲，有人问我，胡老师，牛市一年多了，指数3000点了、4000点了我还没有赚钱。我说真不容易，他从900点进场，涨到了3000点还没有赚钱，真的不容易。他说，胡老师，您告诉我这个答案，我一定会请您吃上海最贵的“神户牛排。”后来他真的请我去了。他说，“胡老师，您教教我，让我搞清楚究竟犯了什么错误，到底是怎么回事？我连怎么赔的都不知道，我死不瞑目。”我说，没事，胡老师我来救你，你坐下来告诉我，“请问你是正常人吗？”他说，胡老师，你怎么能这样问呢？我说你回答我，你是正常人吗？他说，当然是了，我很正常了。我说，“你笑一个给我看”。笑谁不会笑。他就笑给我看。然后，我说你哭一个给我看，他就哭，哭得很伤心，还问我借卫生纸。然后我测他的膝盖，一敲他的左膝盖就弹起来了。他非常的正常。然后我就说，张先生，你回家去吧，求求你不要买股票了。他问，“这是什么话呢？”因为，正常人在股市中，最后绝对是一个输家。
因为我发现90%以上的人在股市中都是正常的，我只能这么痛心的说。因为正常人在股市中不会站到最后的，也许这个月运气好，碰到股市涨了一千点。但是正常人在股市中绝对是个个赔得很惨，个个是输家，全世界都不例外.
你要想办法把自己变成一个“不正常”的人，所以，我希望今天有多点的时间把大家变成“不正常”的人。
当然改变的方式很多，有一个办法，就是来听胡老师的演讲，变得疯疯癫癫之后，“不正常”之后，你们就可以成功了。
你们知道胡老师的八大法则 ?
这个八大法则很简单：
第一，不要听朋友的话。
因为世界上90%以上的人都是平凡人，只能给你平凡的建议。
第二，不要用功读书。
我要你们读对书。很多人读错了书，他认为教科书，历史地理、三角几何代数就可以出人头地，这样你在社会上不会受到老板的青睐。你不如讲两个教科书以外的东西，讲讲星相学是什么，高尔夫在400年前发明的，他会说你博学多闻，你这样反而打动他的心。你如果和老板谈谈三角几何代数，他马上调你到别的部门去。
第三，千万不要努力工作。
很多人说，胡老师出人头地是努力工作呀。这样我还可以在台上教你们吗？出人头地不是努力工作，而是做对工作。我到世界各国著名的大学演讲，很多学生问我，为什么没有出人头地，我说，因为你是一个正常人。正常人只懂得努力读书和用功工作，我跟他讲，你不是不努力工作，你是做错了工作。一个适合当会计师的人跑百米，一个适合做工程师的人当了医生，他能成功吗？想要出人头地的八大法则，最后一条是就是要变成一个“不正常”的人。
言归正传，为什么胡老师那么强烈的认为正常人不可能在股市中致胜呢？
因为投资股票致胜只有四个字“低买高卖”。便宜的时候买，涨价的时候卖，就这四个字，谁能把握住这个原则，谁就是股市中的大赢家。
那么我们问问，正常人会低买吗？什么时候可以低买吗？跌了一天的时候，请问几个人会说，今天太爽了，我要买了。这还是一天。假设股市跌了一年，说，太好了，太好了，有这样的人吗？请举手。
前阵子非典的时候，当时有谁敢出国旅游呢？当时我坐飞机，飞机上的服务员肯定没有心情问我股票，因为当时股票跌的一蹶不振，全世界谁敢来买股票？股市都吓坏了。我可以告诉你，没有人关注股票。空乘员很怕我打喷嚏，我也怕他，他给我毛巾，我说暂时不用。当时坐电梯的时候有人打喷嚏，感觉真的完了。当时在飞机上只有两个人时，航空公司的股价一定很便宜。当时我到两三个地方演讲，我说赶快买航空公司的股票吧。他们说，航空公司的股票是很冷门的。对，坐两个人能热门嘛。所以你们真的能做到低买吗？那么，如果没有低买的时候，肯定是高买了。越高买的人越多。大量的成交量的时候一定在高档，隔壁的王大妈赚到钱了，这口气能咽下去吗？所以一般人是高买，正常人肯定是高买。
胡老师研究股票也研究人性，股性和人性是相通的。有的人紧张的时候会头痛，有人是眼睛痛。当你注意到眼睛痛的时候，你就要知道，这是你的天赋了，所以胡老师要点醒你，我们人都有一种直觉反映，只是我们往往忽略了它。我们直觉上买一个股票，人有的时候一买了股票就会好紧张，认为说会不会买错了？一买进，五分钟以后就觉得糟糕了，不太对，我不应该买。我告诉你，准得很，真的你不应该买。你相信不相信？我告诉你们，你们的直觉很准的，胡老师在这里就点醒你们，我多么希望能够多灌输一些你们做梦都没有想过的投资观念。我们的直觉非常准。
把题目拉回去，我刚才讲到上证指数到几千点，还有一点要注意，只要涨幅达到了一倍的股票或者是指数，千万小心，通常出现拉回整理的几率占80%以上。这都是统计数字。当然上证指数起涨点开始涨了一倍，必然要整理。2000点的时候，我为什么说4000点要小心，现在知道答案了吧？所以，根据开户人口数，经验法则在一起的时候，我们就得出这样一个报告。事实上我觉得牛市可以涨到六、七千。
前不久我去演讲，有一个人问我吉隆坡的股市。他说有一个股票是十元买的，现在的价格到了21，上不去了。我说赶快卖掉。涨幅超过一倍的股票要小心谨慎处理，结果他一卖，后来那只股票大跌了。我根本不了解那位投资人讲的股票是干什么的？不过你问我，经验法则告诉我说，起涨点是十块，那么就先跑一趟，落袋为安。
我们做不到低买高卖，我们一定要答应胡老师做到大赚小赔，每笔交易你都可以做到，三千点你可以做到，六千点你还是可以做到，请相信胡老师的话。我请问各位，你们真的能做到大赚小赔吗？一个20元的股票，胡老师接触过各种各样的客户，20元的股票，涨到22元时80%的人都会卖掉，而且那80%的人都是男生。因为我在电视上讲过，我不知道大家听过我的演讲没有？男生在股市中有一个非常糟糕的毛病，因为男生的人格特质和股票致胜的特性刚好相克。男生有一个人格特质，20元买的股票，22块就会坐立难安，想卖掉。因为男生的个性是猴急的，男生的天性是猴急。女生比较沉着、比较稳一点，女生会多看一下。卖掉以后，男生的下一个动作又来了，这是男性最糟糕的人格特质的缺陷，男生喜新厌旧。他说胡老师，下一只可以买什么？他一定问我这一个。我说你这只这么好的股票卖掉了，还问我下只？他说，您不是说买股票是增加生活情趣吗？水泥板块我玩腻了，我们玩一个科技股。男生在股市中喜新厌旧，女生比较喜欢从一而终，当然从一而终有好有坏。
上个礼拜教成功学的老师教我们都说要正面思考，如果你是一个正面思考的人，你注定是一个输家。
我并不是让你负面思考，我要你逆向思考。这个一字之差很重要，如果正面思考你是什么？是鸵鸟。明明头撞到树了说，不痛。
太正面思考，我给你讲在股市中套牢的人都是明天会更好的人，蹲下来是为了弹更高，休息是为了更好的走路。当大家看坏的时候你要看好，当大家让你走东的时候你要考虑一下是不是要走西才能够出人头地。一定要注意，不要正面思考，让逆向思考。
我们讲小赔，20块的股票买了以后，跌到18，女生的投资朋友会打电话给我问，胡老师是不是买错了？男生的话，举例说，张先生，你买的这只股是不是不太对，要不要换股操作呢？他说没问题，开玩笑，明天要补涨，一定会涨停，不要打电话给我，我不会卖的。我太了解投资人的人性了，我的股票做得这么好，因为我在客户中学到了很多活的知识。
胡老师的客户从阿拉伯的王子到硅谷的大亨都有，我最清楚人性了，男生好赌，赌性强，不服输，男生不服输，这是男生的个性，结果股票下跌的时候他们死鸭子嘴硬，就是不卖。他认为他的股性比较冷一点，虽然上证指数涨了100点，他的股票还在跌停板，他都不卖，他说给这只股票一点时间。最后他什么时候会卖呢？到了3元的时候会卖掉。这是胡老师的经验。我说你为什么三元的时候卖掉，他说留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。他在涨的时候没有耐心，跌的时候也没有耐心。
现在你们懂了，你们的股票投资根本的毛病出在什么地方？因为是一个正常人。正常人在股市中不但做不到低买高卖，正常人在股市中做的是小赚大赔。胡老师一定要带给你们这个观念，你要是不相信胡老师这个话，你要是问胡老师明天指数会涨到哪一点，这都没有用，因为你的人格特质没有改变。
下面我们切入主题，教你们几招终身难忘的招数。
第一个要做到大赚小赔。大赚小赔的方法非常的简单，一只股票20元买进，我可以告诉你们，买进股票根本不重要，重要在这个游戏就开始玩了，马上向下设10%的割肉点，因为我们要做到小赔，当20元的股票跌到18元的时候，一定要答应我卖掉，不要说“休息是为了走更长远的路”。一定要做到小赔。那么很多人问我，为什么不设3%、不设6%？我可以告诉地，在这样的状况下，假设20元到18元，他们还有可能听我的话，全世界投资人都一样，10%左右是他最后下车，他愿意接受的割肉点，一过了10%他绝对不卖，觉得跌太多了，卖不了，男女平等了，都一样。所以10%是你们最后小赔的点，20元跌倒18元，我希望不要发生，但是你一定要首先保证做这样一个动作。
假设一路上往上涨，我恭喜你。往上涨，尤其是涨到25元，你要从25元向下设22.5元的割肉点，只要不到22.5元永远不卖，这样永远往下设10%的割肉点。现在已经到30元了，我告诉里向下设10%的割肉点，只要不到27元永远不要卖。到了40元，你更要严格的注意，设10%的割肉点，不到36元就不卖。
有人问我，为什么我在股市中打滚了一辈子永远都不赚钱？我在上海演讲，有人问我，胡老师，牛市一年多了，指数3000点了、4000点了我还没有赚钱。我说真不容易，他从900点进场，涨到了3000点还没有赚钱，真的不容易。他说，胡老师，您告诉我这个答案，我一定会请您吃上海最贵的“神户牛排。”后来他真的请我去了。他说，“胡老师，您教教我，让我搞清楚究竟犯了什么错误，到底是怎么回事？我连怎么赔的都不知道，我死不瞑目。”我说，没事，胡老师我来救你，你坐下来告诉我，“请问你是正常人吗？”他说，胡老师，你怎么能这样问呢？我说你回答我，你是正常人吗？他说，当然是了，我很正常了。我说，“你笑一个给我看”。笑谁不会笑。他就笑给我看。然后，我说你哭一个给我看，他就哭，哭得很伤心，还问我借卫生纸。然后我测他的膝盖，一敲他的左膝盖就弹起来了。他非常的正常。然后我就说，张先生，你回家去吧，求求你不要买股票了。他问，“这是什么话呢？”因为，正常人在股市中，最后绝对是一个输家。
因为我发现90%以上的人在股市中都是正常的，我只能这么痛心的说。因为正常人在股市中不会站到最后的，也许这个月运气好，碰到股市涨了一千点。但是正常人在股市中绝对是个个赔得很惨，个个是输家，全世界都不例外.
你要想办法把自己变成一个“不正常”的人，所以，我希望今天有多点的时间把大家变成“不正常”的人。
当然改变的方式很多，有一个办法，就是来听胡老师的演讲，变得疯疯癫癫之后，“不正常”之后，你们就可以成功了。
你们知道胡老师的八大法则 ?
这个八大法则很简单：
第一，不要听朋友的话。
因为世界上90%以上的人都是平凡人，只能给你平凡的建议。
第二，不要用功读书。
我要你们读对书。很多人读错了书，他认为教科书，历史地理、三角几何代数就可以出人头地，这样你在社会上不会受到老板的青睐。你不如讲两个教科书以外的东西，讲讲星相学是什么，高尔夫在400年前发明的，他会说你博学多闻，你这样反而打动他的心。你如果和老板谈谈三角几何代数，他马上调你到别的部门去。
第三，千万不要努力工作。
很多人说，胡老师出人头地是努力工作呀。这样我还可以在台上教你们吗？出人头地不是努力工作，而是做对工作。我到世界各国著名的大学演讲，很多学生问我，为什么没有出人头地，我说，因为你是一个正常人。正常人只懂得努力读书和用功工作，我跟他讲，你不是不努力工作，你是做错了工作。一个适合当会计师的人跑百米，一个适合做工程师的人当了医生，他能成功吗？想要出人头地的八大法则，最后一条是就是要变成一个“不正常”的人。
言归正传，为什么胡老师那么强烈的认为正常人不可能在股市中致胜呢？
因为投资股票致胜只有四个字“低买高卖”。便宜的时候买，涨价的时候卖，就这四个字，谁能把握住这个原则，谁就是股市中的大赢家。
那么我们问问，正常人会低买吗？什么时候可以低买吗？跌了一天的时候，请问几个人会说，今天太爽了，我要买了。这还是一天。假设股市跌了一年，说，太好了，太好了，有这样的人吗？请举手。
前阵子非典的时候，当时有谁敢出国旅游呢？当时我坐飞机，飞机上的服务员肯定没有心情问我股票，因为当时股票跌的一蹶不振，全世界谁敢来买股票？股市都吓坏了。我可以告诉你，没有人关注股票。空乘员很怕我打喷嚏，我也怕他，他给我毛巾，我说暂时不用。当时坐电梯的时候有人打喷嚏，感觉真的完了。当时在飞机上只有两个人时，航空公司的股价一定很便宜。当时我到两三个地方演讲，我说赶快买航空公司的股票吧。他们说，航空公司的股票是很冷门的。对，坐两个人能热门嘛。所以你们真的能做到低买吗？那么，如果没有低买的时候，肯定是高买了。越高买的人越多。大量的成交量的时候一定在高档，隔壁的王大妈赚到钱了，这口气能咽下去吗？所以一般人是高买，正常人肯定是高买。
胡老师研究股票也研究人性，股性和人性是相通的。有的人紧张的时候会头痛，有人是眼睛痛。当你注意到眼睛痛的时候，你就要知道，这是你的天赋了，所以胡老师要点醒你，我们人都有一种直觉反映，只是我们往往忽略了它。我们直觉上买一个股票，人有的时候一买了股票就会好紧张，认为说会不会买错了？一买进，五分钟以后就觉得糟糕了，不太对，我不应该买。我告诉你，准得很，真的你不应该买。你相信不相信？我告诉你们，你们的直觉很准的，胡老师在这里就点醒你们，我多么希望能够多灌输一些你们做梦都没有想过的投资观念。我们的直觉非常准。
把题目拉回去，我刚才讲到上证指数到几千点，还有一点要注意，只要涨幅达到了一倍的股票或者是指数，千万小心，通常出现拉回整理的几率占80%以上。这都是统计数字。当然上证指数起涨点开始涨了一倍，必然要整理。2000点的时候，我为什么说4000点要小心，现在知道答案了吧？所以，根据开户人口数，经验法则在一起的时候，我们就得出这样一个报告。事实上我觉得牛市可以涨到六、七千。
前不久我去演讲，有一个人问我吉隆坡的股市。他说有一个股票是十元买的，现在的价格到了21，上不去了。我说赶快卖掉。涨幅超过一倍的股票要小心谨慎处理，结果他一卖，后来那只股票大跌了。我根本不了解那位投资人讲的股票是干什么的？不过你问我，经验法则告诉我说，起涨点是十块，那么就先跑一趟，落袋为安。
我们做不到低买高卖，我们一定要答应胡老师做到大赚小赔，每笔交易你都可以做到，三千点你可以做到，六千点你还是可以做到，请相信胡老师的话。我请问各位，你们真的能做到大赚小赔吗？一个20元的股票，胡老师接触过各种各样的客户，20元的股票，涨到22元时80%的人都会卖掉，而且那80%的人都是男生。因为我在电视上讲过，我不知道大家听过我的演讲没有？男生在股市中有一个非常糟糕的毛病，因为男生的人格特质和股票致胜的特性刚好相克。男生有一个人格特质，20元买的股票，22块就会坐立难安，想卖掉。因为男生的个性是猴急的，男生的天性是猴急。女生比较沉着、比较稳一点，女生会多看一下。卖掉以后，男生的下一个动作又来了，这是男性最糟糕的人格特质的缺陷，男生喜新厌旧。他说胡老师，下一只可以买什么？他一定问我这一个。我说你这只这么好的股票卖掉了，还问我下只？他说，您不是说买股票是增加生活情趣吗？水泥板块我玩腻了，我们玩一个科技股。男生在股市中喜新厌旧，女生比较喜欢从一而终，当然从一而终有好有坏。
上个礼拜教成功学的老师教我们都说要正面思考，如果你是一个正面思考的人，你注定是一个输家。
我并不是让你负面思考，我要你逆向思考。这个一字之差很重要，如果正面思考你是什么？是鸵鸟。明明头撞到树了说，不痛。
太正面思考，我给你讲在股市中套牢的人都是明天会更好的人，蹲下来是为了弹更高，休息是为了更好的走路。当大家看坏的时候你要看好，当大家让你走东的时候你要考虑一下是不是要走西才能够出人头地。一定要注意，不要正面思考，让逆向思考。
我们讲小赔，20块的股票买了以后，跌到18，女生的投资朋友会打电话给我问，胡老师是不是买错了？男生的话，举例说，张先生，你买的这只股是不是不太对，要不要换股操作呢？他说没问题，开玩笑，明天要补涨，一定会涨停，不要打电话给我，我不会卖的。我太了解投资人的人性了，我的股票做得这么好，因为我在客户中学到了很多活的知识。
胡老师的客户从阿拉伯的王子到硅谷的大亨都有，我最清楚人性了，男生好赌，赌性强，不服输，男生不服输，这是男生的个性，结果股票下跌的时候他们死鸭子嘴硬，就是不卖。他认为他的股性比较冷一点，虽然上证指数涨了100点，他的股票还在跌停板，他都不卖，他说给这只股票一点时间。最后他什么时候会卖呢？到了3元的时候会卖掉。这是胡老师的经验。我说你为什么三元的时候卖掉，他说留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。他在涨的时候没有耐心，跌的时候也没有耐心。
现在你们懂了，你们的股票投资根本的毛病出在什么地方？因为是一个正常人。正常人在股市中不但做不到低买高卖，正常人在股市中做的是小赚大赔。胡老师一定要带给你们这个观念，你要是不相信胡老师这个话，你要是问胡老师明天指数会涨到哪一点，这都没有用，因为你的人格特质没有改变。
下面我们切入主题，教你们几招终身难忘的招数。
第一个要做到大赚小赔。大赚小赔的方法非常的简单，一只股票20元买进，我可以告诉你们，买进股票根本不重要，重要在这个游戏就开始玩了，马上向下设10%的割肉点，因为我们要做到小赔，当20元的股票跌到18元的时候，一定要答应我卖掉，不要说“休息是为了走更长远的路”。一定要做到小赔。那么很多人问我，为什么不设3%、不设6%？我可以告诉地，在这样的状况下，假设20元到18元，他们还有可能听我的话，全世界投资人都一样，10%左右是他最后下车，他愿意接受的割肉点，一过了10%他绝对不卖，觉得跌太多了，卖不了，男女平等了，都一样。所以10%是你们最后小赔的点，20元跌倒18元，我希望不要发生，但是你一定要首先保证做这样一个动作。
假设一路上往上涨，我恭喜你。往上涨，尤其是涨到25元，你要从25元向下设22.5元的割肉点，只要不到22.5元永远不卖，这样永远往下设10%的割肉点。现在已经到30元了，我告诉里向下设10%的割肉点，只要不到27元永远不要卖。到了40元，你更要严格的注意，设10%的割肉点，不到36元就不卖。
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
心中无股——巴菲特
我在这里要说：在股市上，平生不识巴菲特，就称高手也枉然。
即使是世界首富比尔•盖茨，对巴菲特也非常敬佩。我们大家都知道，巴菲特是赚钱最多的投资人，他从100美元起家，通过投资赚到了500多亿美元的财富，成为仅次于比尔•盖茨的世界第二大富翁。
巴菲特出生于1930年，盖茨出生于1955年，两人相差25岁，论年纪，盖茨应该叫巴菲特大叔，但这两个世界上最有钱的人却是私交非常好的好朋友。盖茨知道，巴菲特非常能赚钱，却极少花钱，他住的是50年前的同一幢老房子，吃的还是汉堡，喝的还是可乐。
但是巴菲特对盖茨影响最大的地方，并非这笔捐赠，而是巴菲特的投资思想。众所周知，巴菲特是最会赚钱的投资人，创造了有史以来最高的投资业绩。1965年至2006年，这42年间巴菲特的投资业绩翻了3 600多倍，是同期美国股市涨幅的55倍。假如你给巴菲特1万元，42年后巴菲特就会给你变成3 600多万，他简直是拥有一个点石成金的金手指。盖茨的基金会有几百亿美元资金，为了进行资产保值、增值，也进行股票投资，盖茨经常向巴菲特请教。
比尔•盖茨向巴菲特请教得越多，对巴菲特投资思想了解得越深，他内心越是震惊：原来巴菲特的投资思想是如此简单，但却又如此有效，其中蕴涵着博大精深的投资智慧。在他真正了解了巴菲特的投资之道之后，他才明白巴菲特被称为股神，并不仅仅在于他投资积累的财富，更重要的是在于他的投资思想。
那么就让我们和比尔•盖茨一样，来向巴菲特学习真正的投资成功之道吧。
巴菲特的投资业绩之所以能够如此卓然出众，一个最大的原因就在于他的投资策略非常与众不同，我将其总结为三个不同：
第一，看的不同。
第二，想的不同。
第三，做的不同。
那么，巴菲特的所看、所想、所做，与我们普通投资者究竟有什么不同呢？
1.股神看的不同：
不看股价首先，我们来了解一下巴菲特的第一个与众不同：看的不同。 股民们每天看得最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷了，到了什么程度呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为他们担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室是人人上班看行情、炒股票，办公室成了营业部，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。大家下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万、几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百亿、几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？这里有一个真实的故事。1989年，美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，其基金经理彼得‘林奇专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大、业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。 彼得·林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我国中部一个小县城 更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。彼得·林奇来到巴菲特的办公室推门一看，房间不大，只有20多平方米，左边是一排书架，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。 彼得·林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。“哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？”巴菲特一笑：“我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。” 林奇听了直摇头：“真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。”
你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪，人在什么价位以下买人多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。 你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕股价突然大跌，你被深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是让他非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年、几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政洽髟响力的报纸《华盛顿邮报》公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
你需要养一个让你放心的小孩，也需要找一个让你放心的老公，同样也需要孝习巴菲特，买一些让你放心的股票，根本不用天天看，不管涨跌，都吃得香，睡得着，因为你对公司充满信心，这样是不是比时时看行情轻松多了呢？股民天天看股价，股神却根本不看股价，这正是股神巴菲特的第一个与众不看的不同。
2.股神想的不同：
不想股价下面我们接着讲股神巴菲特的第二个与众不同：想的不同。作为股民，平时你想得最多的是什么？那还用问：当然是想股价了，想得最多的，就是未来股价会涨还是会跌。只要是买卖过股票的人都知道，买卖股票要赚钱，最关键的是要准确预测未来股价是涨是跌，预测对了就能赚钱，预测不准就会亏钱。那么，怎么预测股价会涨还是会跌呢？最常见的、最流行的方法是技术分析。什么是技术分析呢？有很多很多种技术分析方法，包括什么蜡烛图、K线图、波浪理论等等。但技术分析的本质是相同的，就是根据股价过去的走势，来预测未来的走势。技术分析坚信，根据历史能够预测未来。大家经常看到电视上的这样一些股票节目，观众给专家打电话咨询，这些技术分析专家一听股票名称或代码，马上敲电脑，打开一只只股票的走势图，先是分析一通这只股票过去走势如何，现在走势如何，然后预测一通未来走势会如何如何，应该如何如何操作。有人称这种股评家为“看图说话”。技术分析专家声称，只要知道过去的股价和成交量数字，就能预测未来股价走势。就像算命先生一样，只要知道你的生辰八字，就能预测你的未来命运，所以我总觉得，技术分析有些像看相算卦。有些投资人经常说：基某专家预测股票走势很灵的。我听着他们好像在说：某某某算命很灵的。你相信算命先生吗？如果算命先生真的能够预测未来，他只要去买彩票就发大财了，何必到处摆摊挣钱呢？你能从你过去每年每月的工资收入数据，推算出未来的工资收入吗？推算是没有用的，关键还是要勤奋工作，提高能力，才能提高薪水。你能从孩子过去的考试成绩推算出未来的高考成绩吗？推算是没有用的，关键还是要他好好学习，才能提高成绩。
那么你相信股市预测专家和那些股票预测软件吗？ 反正，巴菲特根本不相信，他曾说：“投资者期望那些技术分析预测专家会告诉自己在未来几个月内如何炒股票、赚大钱，那是根本不可能实现的幻想。如果真能够赚大钱的话，他们才根本不会告诉投资者，他们自己早就赚发了。”
巴菲特从10岁到20岁研究了10年技术分析，天天画图表，天天算指标，投资却非常失败。后来他遇到了证券分析之父格雷厄姆，才走出迷途。格雷厄姆告诉巴菲特说：“技术分析有多么流行，就有多么错误。”后来巴菲特再也不相信技术分析，也根本不做技术分析。他现在已经快80岁了，做了一辈子投资，他根本不相信任何人能够预测股市，他说：“我从来没有见过一个能够预测市场走势的人。”巴菲特不相信任何股市预测专家，也不相信任何炒股软件，因为60多年的投资经验告诉他，没有任何人、也没有任何方法能够准确预测出股价涨跌。
既然预测不了，最好的做法就是不预测。巴菲特在1988年伯克希尔股东大会上说：“对于未来一年后的股市走势、利率以及经济动态，我们不做任何预测。我们过去不会预测，现在不会预测，未来我们也不会预测……我对预测股市的短期波动一无所长，我对未来六个月、未来一年或未来两年内的股票市场的走势一无所知。”股神巴菲特根本不预测股价走势，又简单，又省力，却赚成世界富豪。很多股民天天预测股价走势，又复杂，又费心费力，结果不但不赚钱，反倒亏得一塌糊涂。原因很简单：做根本无法成功的事，最终只有死路一条。
3.股神做的不同：
不做差价许多股民朋友会纳闷，巴菲特不看股价，不想股价，那他怎么做股票赚钱呢？这正是我们要讲的巴菲特的第三个与众不同：做的不同。我们大部分股民是如何做股票赚钱的呢？做差价。也就是做短线，短期内频繁买进卖出，低买高卖。一看这个股票涨得不错，又比较热门，马上就买一点，等到赚钱了赶紧抛出去，频繁买进卖出。这就像过去的“倒爷”一样，倒来倒去做差价，所以我把这种人叫做“股市倒爷”。你问一下这些人，他买股票的理由是什么呢？原因很简单，因为这只股票会涨。你怎么判断会涨呢？答日：我预测会涨。这些人根本不管什么公司基本面，而是把股票当彩票，把股市当赌场，赌的是股价短期内会涨还是会跌。这些人买卖股票的一个特点是：追涨杀跌。简单解释就是：越涨越买，越跌越卖。为什么明知东西价格太高了还要买呢？因为他们预测股价以后还会涨，就能以更高的价格转手卖出，赚上一笔差价。有人形象地称这种短线投机方式是博傻。为什么这么说呢？因为他们博的是会有更傻的傻瓜出现，以更高的价格把你的股票买走。但是，如果后面的人并不傻，全世界的人都知道了这只股票股价远远高于价值，那么你就成了以最高价最后一个接手这只股票的人，你就荣幸地成了全世界最傻的大傻瓜。俗话说得好，谁比谁傻呀？你自己都不愿意当高位接盘的大傻瓜，凭什么幻想别人愿意呢？所以巴菲特说，博傻其实就是犯傻：“仅仅因为一只股票股价上涨，就追涨买入，是最傻的行为。”“这种短线做差价的行为根本称不上投资，而是投机，长期而言根本不可能发财致富。”因为频繁买进卖出做差价，就跟赌博一样，久赌必输，往往是你赚了几次之后，又赔了几次，结果不但把原来赚的又赔进去了，很可能还把老本也赔光了。因此巴菲特根本不短线投机做差价：“我从未期望通过股市赚钱。我们买入股票时假设股市第二天会关闭，甚至在5年内股市不会重新开盘。”巴菲特做长期投资，他持有可口可乐19年，赚了7倍以上，他持有《华盛顿邮报》33年，赚了128倍。他的大部分股票，都是买入之后就长期持有，他从来不做差价。为什么呢？因为巴菲特已经意识到，越做差价，业绩越差，要想战胜市场，唯一的办法就是不要短线投机做差价，而要进行长期投资。以上我们讲的巴菲特投资之道，可以概括为“三不”原则：不看股价，不想股价，不做差价。大家都知道，武功的最高境界是手中无剑、心中无剑。
巴菲特也到达了投资的最高境界：
不看股价，眼中无股。
不想股价，心中无股。
不做差价，手中捂股。
巴菲特的投资策略，与我们大多数普通投资者的不同之处在于：
我们天天看着盯着股价变化，而巴菲特根本不关心股价是涨是跌；
我们天天想尽办法预测股价，而巴菲特根本不去想股价会涨会跌；
我们天天忙来忙去做差价，而巴菲特根本不做差价而是长期持有。
这正好与我们大多数普通股民看的想的做的完全相反。
即使是世界首富比尔•盖茨，对巴菲特也非常敬佩。我们大家都知道，巴菲特是赚钱最多的投资人，他从100美元起家，通过投资赚到了500多亿美元的财富，成为仅次于比尔•盖茨的世界第二大富翁。
巴菲特出生于1930年，盖茨出生于1955年，两人相差25岁，论年纪，盖茨应该叫巴菲特大叔，但这两个世界上最有钱的人却是私交非常好的好朋友。盖茨知道，巴菲特非常能赚钱，却极少花钱，他住的是50年前的同一幢老房子，吃的还是汉堡，喝的还是可乐。
但是巴菲特对盖茨影响最大的地方，并非这笔捐赠，而是巴菲特的投资思想。众所周知，巴菲特是最会赚钱的投资人，创造了有史以来最高的投资业绩。1965年至2006年，这42年间巴菲特的投资业绩翻了3 600多倍，是同期美国股市涨幅的55倍。假如你给巴菲特1万元，42年后巴菲特就会给你变成3 600多万，他简直是拥有一个点石成金的金手指。盖茨的基金会有几百亿美元资金，为了进行资产保值、增值，也进行股票投资，盖茨经常向巴菲特请教。
比尔•盖茨向巴菲特请教得越多，对巴菲特投资思想了解得越深，他内心越是震惊：原来巴菲特的投资思想是如此简单，但却又如此有效，其中蕴涵着博大精深的投资智慧。在他真正了解了巴菲特的投资之道之后，他才明白巴菲特被称为股神，并不仅仅在于他投资积累的财富，更重要的是在于他的投资思想。
那么就让我们和比尔•盖茨一样，来向巴菲特学习真正的投资成功之道吧。
巴菲特的投资业绩之所以能够如此卓然出众，一个最大的原因就在于他的投资策略非常与众不同，我将其总结为三个不同：
第一，看的不同。
第二，想的不同。
第三，做的不同。
那么，巴菲特的所看、所想、所做，与我们普通投资者究竟有什么不同呢？
1.股神看的不同：
不看股价首先，我们来了解一下巴菲特的第一个与众不同：看的不同。 股民们每天看得最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷了，到了什么程度呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为他们担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室是人人上班看行情、炒股票，办公室成了营业部，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。大家下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万、几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百亿、几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？这里有一个真实的故事。1989年，美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，其基金经理彼得‘林奇专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大、业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。 彼得·林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我国中部一个小县城 更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。彼得·林奇来到巴菲特的办公室推门一看，房间不大，只有20多平方米，左边是一排书架，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。 彼得·林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。“哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？”巴菲特一笑：“我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。” 林奇听了直摇头：“真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。”
你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪，人在什么价位以下买人多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。 你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕股价突然大跌，你被深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是让他非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年、几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政洽髟响力的报纸《华盛顿邮报》公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
你需要养一个让你放心的小孩，也需要找一个让你放心的老公，同样也需要孝习巴菲特，买一些让你放心的股票，根本不用天天看，不管涨跌，都吃得香，睡得着，因为你对公司充满信心，这样是不是比时时看行情轻松多了呢？股民天天看股价，股神却根本不看股价，这正是股神巴菲特的第一个与众不看的不同。
2.股神想的不同：
不想股价下面我们接着讲股神巴菲特的第二个与众不同：想的不同。作为股民，平时你想得最多的是什么？那还用问：当然是想股价了，想得最多的，就是未来股价会涨还是会跌。只要是买卖过股票的人都知道，买卖股票要赚钱，最关键的是要准确预测未来股价是涨是跌，预测对了就能赚钱，预测不准就会亏钱。那么，怎么预测股价会涨还是会跌呢？最常见的、最流行的方法是技术分析。什么是技术分析呢？有很多很多种技术分析方法，包括什么蜡烛图、K线图、波浪理论等等。但技术分析的本质是相同的，就是根据股价过去的走势，来预测未来的走势。技术分析坚信，根据历史能够预测未来。大家经常看到电视上的这样一些股票节目，观众给专家打电话咨询，这些技术分析专家一听股票名称或代码，马上敲电脑，打开一只只股票的走势图，先是分析一通这只股票过去走势如何，现在走势如何，然后预测一通未来走势会如何如何，应该如何如何操作。有人称这种股评家为“看图说话”。技术分析专家声称，只要知道过去的股价和成交量数字，就能预测未来股价走势。就像算命先生一样，只要知道你的生辰八字，就能预测你的未来命运，所以我总觉得，技术分析有些像看相算卦。有些投资人经常说：基某专家预测股票走势很灵的。我听着他们好像在说：某某某算命很灵的。你相信算命先生吗？如果算命先生真的能够预测未来，他只要去买彩票就发大财了，何必到处摆摊挣钱呢？你能从你过去每年每月的工资收入数据，推算出未来的工资收入吗？推算是没有用的，关键还是要勤奋工作，提高能力，才能提高薪水。你能从孩子过去的考试成绩推算出未来的高考成绩吗？推算是没有用的，关键还是要他好好学习，才能提高成绩。
那么你相信股市预测专家和那些股票预测软件吗？ 反正，巴菲特根本不相信，他曾说：“投资者期望那些技术分析预测专家会告诉自己在未来几个月内如何炒股票、赚大钱，那是根本不可能实现的幻想。如果真能够赚大钱的话，他们才根本不会告诉投资者，他们自己早就赚发了。”
巴菲特从10岁到20岁研究了10年技术分析，天天画图表，天天算指标，投资却非常失败。后来他遇到了证券分析之父格雷厄姆，才走出迷途。格雷厄姆告诉巴菲特说：“技术分析有多么流行，就有多么错误。”后来巴菲特再也不相信技术分析，也根本不做技术分析。他现在已经快80岁了，做了一辈子投资，他根本不相信任何人能够预测股市，他说：“我从来没有见过一个能够预测市场走势的人。”巴菲特不相信任何股市预测专家，也不相信任何炒股软件，因为60多年的投资经验告诉他，没有任何人、也没有任何方法能够准确预测出股价涨跌。
既然预测不了，最好的做法就是不预测。巴菲特在1988年伯克希尔股东大会上说：“对于未来一年后的股市走势、利率以及经济动态，我们不做任何预测。我们过去不会预测，现在不会预测，未来我们也不会预测……我对预测股市的短期波动一无所长，我对未来六个月、未来一年或未来两年内的股票市场的走势一无所知。”股神巴菲特根本不预测股价走势，又简单，又省力，却赚成世界富豪。很多股民天天预测股价走势，又复杂，又费心费力，结果不但不赚钱，反倒亏得一塌糊涂。原因很简单：做根本无法成功的事，最终只有死路一条。
3.股神做的不同：
不做差价许多股民朋友会纳闷，巴菲特不看股价，不想股价，那他怎么做股票赚钱呢？这正是我们要讲的巴菲特的第三个与众不同：做的不同。我们大部分股民是如何做股票赚钱的呢？做差价。也就是做短线，短期内频繁买进卖出，低买高卖。一看这个股票涨得不错，又比较热门，马上就买一点，等到赚钱了赶紧抛出去，频繁买进卖出。这就像过去的“倒爷”一样，倒来倒去做差价，所以我把这种人叫做“股市倒爷”。你问一下这些人，他买股票的理由是什么呢？原因很简单，因为这只股票会涨。你怎么判断会涨呢？答日：我预测会涨。这些人根本不管什么公司基本面，而是把股票当彩票，把股市当赌场，赌的是股价短期内会涨还是会跌。这些人买卖股票的一个特点是：追涨杀跌。简单解释就是：越涨越买，越跌越卖。为什么明知东西价格太高了还要买呢？因为他们预测股价以后还会涨，就能以更高的价格转手卖出，赚上一笔差价。有人形象地称这种短线投机方式是博傻。为什么这么说呢？因为他们博的是会有更傻的傻瓜出现，以更高的价格把你的股票买走。但是，如果后面的人并不傻，全世界的人都知道了这只股票股价远远高于价值，那么你就成了以最高价最后一个接手这只股票的人，你就荣幸地成了全世界最傻的大傻瓜。俗话说得好，谁比谁傻呀？你自己都不愿意当高位接盘的大傻瓜，凭什么幻想别人愿意呢？所以巴菲特说，博傻其实就是犯傻：“仅仅因为一只股票股价上涨，就追涨买入，是最傻的行为。”“这种短线做差价的行为根本称不上投资，而是投机，长期而言根本不可能发财致富。”因为频繁买进卖出做差价，就跟赌博一样，久赌必输，往往是你赚了几次之后，又赔了几次，结果不但把原来赚的又赔进去了，很可能还把老本也赔光了。因此巴菲特根本不短线投机做差价：“我从未期望通过股市赚钱。我们买入股票时假设股市第二天会关闭，甚至在5年内股市不会重新开盘。”巴菲特做长期投资，他持有可口可乐19年，赚了7倍以上，他持有《华盛顿邮报》33年，赚了128倍。他的大部分股票，都是买入之后就长期持有，他从来不做差价。为什么呢？因为巴菲特已经意识到，越做差价，业绩越差，要想战胜市场，唯一的办法就是不要短线投机做差价，而要进行长期投资。以上我们讲的巴菲特投资之道，可以概括为“三不”原则：不看股价，不想股价，不做差价。大家都知道，武功的最高境界是手中无剑、心中无剑。
巴菲特也到达了投资的最高境界：
不看股价，眼中无股。
不想股价，心中无股。
不做差价，手中捂股。
巴菲特的投资策略，与我们大多数普通投资者的不同之处在于：
我们天天看着盯着股价变化，而巴菲特根本不关心股价是涨是跌；
我们天天想尽办法预测股价，而巴菲特根本不去想股价会涨会跌；
我们天天忙来忙去做差价，而巴菲特根本不做差价而是长期持有。
这正好与我们大多数普通股民看的想的做的完全相反。
心理学家：四种性格的人不宜投资股票
心理学家认为，人的性格、能力、兴趣爱好等心理特征各不相同，并非人人都能投入“风险莫测”的股市中去的。
据研究，以下几种性格的人不宜炒股。
1.环型性格。
表现为情绪极不稳定，大起大落，情绪自控能力差，极易受环境的影响，赢利时兴高采烈，忘乎所以，不知风险将至，输钱时灰心丧气，一蹶不振，怨天尤人。
2.偏执性格。
表现为个性偏激，自我评价过高，刚愎自用，在买进股票时常坚信自己的片面判断，听不进任何忠告，甚至来自股民的警告也当耳边风，当遇到挫折或失败时，则用心理投射机制迁怒别人。
3.懦弱性格。
表现为随大流，人云亦云，缺乏自信，无主见，遇事优柔寡断，总是按别人的意见做。进入股市，则为盲目跟风。往往选好的股号改来改去而与好股擦肩而过，后悔不迭。
4.追求完美性格。
即目标过高，做什么事都追求十全十美，稍有不足，即耿耿于怀，自怨自责，其表现为随意性、投机性、赌注性等方面多头全面出击，但机缘巧合的机会毕竟少，于是不能释怀。
据研究，以下几种性格的人不宜炒股。
1.环型性格。
表现为情绪极不稳定，大起大落，情绪自控能力差，极易受环境的影响，赢利时兴高采烈，忘乎所以，不知风险将至，输钱时灰心丧气，一蹶不振，怨天尤人。
2.偏执性格。
表现为个性偏激，自我评价过高，刚愎自用，在买进股票时常坚信自己的片面判断，听不进任何忠告，甚至来自股民的警告也当耳边风，当遇到挫折或失败时，则用心理投射机制迁怒别人。
3.懦弱性格。
表现为随大流，人云亦云，缺乏自信，无主见，遇事优柔寡断，总是按别人的意见做。进入股市，则为盲目跟风。往往选好的股号改来改去而与好股擦肩而过，后悔不迭。
4.追求完美性格。
即目标过高，做什么事都追求十全十美，稍有不足，即耿耿于怀，自怨自责，其表现为随意性、投机性、赌注性等方面多头全面出击，但机缘巧合的机会毕竟少，于是不能释怀。
揭密股票炒作的心理根源——股市心理学
股市，从经济学上来说是国民经济的晴雨表，但这只是一个虚幻的概念（至少在我国不是这样，它是国民经济的反情雨表，玩笑！）。
从现实来讲，它是人和人之间的一场游戏。人们为什么会买、卖股票？简单来说，就是人们看到这支股票在升，还会升；看到那支股票在跌，还会跌。因而，从现实的角度来讲，股市是股民心理的晴雨表，几乎股市运行的每一阶段都能够从市场心理学的角度找到解释。说到底，炒股就是炒心理，炒的是投资大众对国民经济、股市未来的预期。
正因为如此，研究和利用投资大众的心理，便是庄家制胜的法宝。庄家往往是利用投资大众的心理弱点，如恐惧、贪婪、心存侥幸、急功近利和优柔寡断等来设计操作方案，以达到操盘目的。
如在吸货和洗盘阶段，将走势做坏，做得异常恐怖，大有天塌地陷之感，或长期横盘，如一潭死水，使投资大众惟恐避之不及，匆忙抛出手中筹码，从而达到吸货或洗盘之目的。可以用一句话来形容此时的市场心理，即“走势不坏、庄家不爱，走势不恶，散户不割”。
在出货阶段，则股价上窜下跳，让人有一种欲罢不能的感觉，舍不得抛出手中筹码，从而使庄家从容退场，投资大众则成为无奈的套牢一族。此时的市场心理可以形容为：“走势不好、庄家难逃，走势不妙，散户不要”。
逆反操作和夸大操作是庄家经常采用的手法,主要表现为底部的折磨术和顶部的引诱术。正因为如此，才会有许多技术陷阱，如形态上的假突破和指标上的骗线等等。故股谚有云：“行情在绝望中产生，在犹豫中发展，在满怀希望中毁灭”。
识别问题的关键是紧紧抓住庄家的持仓成本，只有这样，才算是抓住了问题的根本，才能致人而不致于人，牢牢掌握主动权。
从现实来讲，它是人和人之间的一场游戏。人们为什么会买、卖股票？简单来说，就是人们看到这支股票在升，还会升；看到那支股票在跌，还会跌。因而，从现实的角度来讲，股市是股民心理的晴雨表，几乎股市运行的每一阶段都能够从市场心理学的角度找到解释。说到底，炒股就是炒心理，炒的是投资大众对国民经济、股市未来的预期。
正因为如此，研究和利用投资大众的心理，便是庄家制胜的法宝。庄家往往是利用投资大众的心理弱点，如恐惧、贪婪、心存侥幸、急功近利和优柔寡断等来设计操作方案，以达到操盘目的。
如在吸货和洗盘阶段，将走势做坏，做得异常恐怖，大有天塌地陷之感，或长期横盘，如一潭死水，使投资大众惟恐避之不及，匆忙抛出手中筹码，从而达到吸货或洗盘之目的。可以用一句话来形容此时的市场心理，即“走势不坏、庄家不爱，走势不恶，散户不割”。
在出货阶段，则股价上窜下跳，让人有一种欲罢不能的感觉，舍不得抛出手中筹码，从而使庄家从容退场，投资大众则成为无奈的套牢一族。此时的市场心理可以形容为：“走势不好、庄家难逃，走势不妙，散户不要”。
逆反操作和夸大操作是庄家经常采用的手法,主要表现为底部的折磨术和顶部的引诱术。正因为如此，才会有许多技术陷阱，如形态上的假突破和指标上的骗线等等。故股谚有云：“行情在绝望中产生，在犹豫中发展，在满怀希望中毁灭”。
识别问题的关键是紧紧抓住庄家的持仓成本，只有这样，才算是抓住了问题的根本，才能致人而不致于人，牢牢掌握主动权。
SINGAPORE MARKET
Four quick-paced corrections ranging from 7% to 14% in last 3 months signal harder times for traders used to sustained rallies in past 5 years.
Judging from the market behaviour since the all-time STI peak of 3906 last Oct 10, resistance levels have become much easier to identify thansupport levels. The series of lower peaks starting from 3906 followed by 3842 in early November to 3622 a month later and finally to 3492-3482 at year-end does not bode well for a test of 3800-3900 anytime soon.
In fact 3906 may well mark a multi-year peak in the same class as 1288 in 1987, 1304 in 1990, 2138 in January 1994 and 2583 in January 2000. The latter will be an ultimate test of the support in the event of a major downmove, which is unlikely this year as there are higher support references at the May 2006 high of 2666 and last year’s double bottom at 2932 and 2962.
The subsequent peak after 2666 ie 3316 in February last year has failed to hold up after 3 tests since November indicating high probability of a test of the 3000 psychological level.
Another bearish sign is the sharp 271 point or 7.8% plunge from yearend’s 3482 to 3211 yesterday and not only that, the new FTSE STI which kicked off on Jan 10 had also started on a bearish footing being down to 3211 yesterday from 3344 on the last day of the old STI.
Thus the more predictable behaviour seen during last year’s correction phases is no longer here which would make it harder for traders to be convinced there are safe trading chances out there. Investors are even more cautious preferring to wait for signs of a final bottom before
moving in.
Are there signs the worst is over? The toll on banks and major brokerages balance sheets from the US sub-prime crisis appears to be getting worse after about a year in the news and the Fed has certainly been slow to react in its interest rate cuts.
Markets may interprete such moves as only short term measures that do no seem to reduce the risks of a US recession as evidenced from the earlier rate cuts which although excited players seen from strong Wall Street rallies ahead and/or after FOMC meetings, appear to have no positive impact on the US economy.
Now prospects of at least another 50 bp cut at the end-January FOMC meet are ignored and it appears only a strong stimulus package with significant tax cuts on top of a 75bp rate cut can bring back the hiding bulls.
Even then judging from the increasingly feebler run-ups after corrections in the last 3 months, the new STI has to overcome lower resistance levels starting from 3300, 3400 and 3500. The 3500-3600 levels may be too high to aspire at this stage and perhaps not until players regain confidence that the market has made a major bottom would they feel safe to resume aggressive buying.
There may be a window for a rally in the last week of January till Budget speech around mid-February depending on the generosity of the goodies that may well include tax cuts to circumvent the need for any stimulus package later on in the year in the event the US economy
takes a turn for the worse from the sub-prime woes.
But the technical picture does not suggest a strong sustainable rally is likely, judging from the major cracks in the uptrend seen especially in the last 3 months which had their origins in the July-August 19.7% plunge from 3688 to 2962 and even earlier in March when the index lost
11.6% in a week from 3316 to 2932.
Within a short 3 month span we have already seen 4 major pullbacks – 7% immediately after the Oct 10 record to 3633, another 14% plunge in Nov, an 8.9% fall in December and 7.8% pullback so far this year to 3211 yesterday.
At 3211 the STI is back to around its Aug 16 day’s high of 3215 on the eve of its memorable Aug 17 plunge to 2962. It closed at 3152 on Aug 16 after reaching a low of 3104. The next day it managed to shoot back to as high as 3179 after plunging to 2962 in mid-afternoon before
ending at 3131.
The 3130-3180 zone may thus be more comfortable levels for traders to start buying for a mild rally to around 3350-3400.
Judging from the market behaviour since the all-time STI peak of 3906 last Oct 10, resistance levels have become much easier to identify thansupport levels. The series of lower peaks starting from 3906 followed by 3842 in early November to 3622 a month later and finally to 3492-3482 at year-end does not bode well for a test of 3800-3900 anytime soon.
In fact 3906 may well mark a multi-year peak in the same class as 1288 in 1987, 1304 in 1990, 2138 in January 1994 and 2583 in January 2000. The latter will be an ultimate test of the support in the event of a major downmove, which is unlikely this year as there are higher support references at the May 2006 high of 2666 and last year’s double bottom at 2932 and 2962.
The subsequent peak after 2666 ie 3316 in February last year has failed to hold up after 3 tests since November indicating high probability of a test of the 3000 psychological level.
Another bearish sign is the sharp 271 point or 7.8% plunge from yearend’s 3482 to 3211 yesterday and not only that, the new FTSE STI which kicked off on Jan 10 had also started on a bearish footing being down to 3211 yesterday from 3344 on the last day of the old STI.
Thus the more predictable behaviour seen during last year’s correction phases is no longer here which would make it harder for traders to be convinced there are safe trading chances out there. Investors are even more cautious preferring to wait for signs of a final bottom before
moving in.
Are there signs the worst is over? The toll on banks and major brokerages balance sheets from the US sub-prime crisis appears to be getting worse after about a year in the news and the Fed has certainly been slow to react in its interest rate cuts.
Markets may interprete such moves as only short term measures that do no seem to reduce the risks of a US recession as evidenced from the earlier rate cuts which although excited players seen from strong Wall Street rallies ahead and/or after FOMC meetings, appear to have no positive impact on the US economy.
Now prospects of at least another 50 bp cut at the end-January FOMC meet are ignored and it appears only a strong stimulus package with significant tax cuts on top of a 75bp rate cut can bring back the hiding bulls.
Even then judging from the increasingly feebler run-ups after corrections in the last 3 months, the new STI has to overcome lower resistance levels starting from 3300, 3400 and 3500. The 3500-3600 levels may be too high to aspire at this stage and perhaps not until players regain confidence that the market has made a major bottom would they feel safe to resume aggressive buying.
There may be a window for a rally in the last week of January till Budget speech around mid-February depending on the generosity of the goodies that may well include tax cuts to circumvent the need for any stimulus package later on in the year in the event the US economy
takes a turn for the worse from the sub-prime woes.
But the technical picture does not suggest a strong sustainable rally is likely, judging from the major cracks in the uptrend seen especially in the last 3 months which had their origins in the July-August 19.7% plunge from 3688 to 2962 and even earlier in March when the index lost
11.6% in a week from 3316 to 2932.
Within a short 3 month span we have already seen 4 major pullbacks – 7% immediately after the Oct 10 record to 3633, another 14% plunge in Nov, an 8.9% fall in December and 7.8% pullback so far this year to 3211 yesterday.
At 3211 the STI is back to around its Aug 16 day’s high of 3215 on the eve of its memorable Aug 17 plunge to 2962. It closed at 3152 on Aug 16 after reaching a low of 3104. The next day it managed to shoot back to as high as 3179 after plunging to 2962 in mid-afternoon before
ending at 3131.
The 3130-3180 zone may thus be more comfortable levels for traders to start buying for a mild rally to around 3350-3400.
股市心理學
進出時猶豫不決，擔心買高賣低；在多頭市場時，無法克制追漲的誘惑；面對空頭，又耐不住恐懼殺到最低，你一定經歷過同樣的掙扎，並屢屢懊悔自己讓情緒毀了原本的精心研究。
情緒才是主角；投資，就是控制情緒的遊戲。但投資專家、經濟學家、心理學家都無奈地承認，這個領域是他們對股市認知的「失去的一環」。
超越技術分析與基本分析,「失去的一環」，指出人類各種投資心態，要追溯到孩童時期與父母的關係，並教你破解這些暗藏的心結，提出適合你的投資組合。
起步心理學
有時候萬事起頭難，難到許多人從未踏出第一步。這實在是憾事一件，因為投資股票長期而言是致富的最佳途徑，也能使你的財務比想像中更有保障，簡言之，它能讓你的美夢成真。
這些報酬都在引頸企盼你的到來，我也擔保你絕對能獲得這些報酬，但你必須在踏出第一步時覺得毫無所懼。
有許多強力的心理因素會阻礙一般人起步，其中最強烈的應屬罪惡感，這也許與試圖超越父母或兄弟、社會地位提升或在眾人皆貧之際累積財富有關。如果財富是繼承而來，罪惡感可能來自不應擁有非辛苦所得之財的觀念，或因為遺產來自你不喜歡甚至討厭的親戚。
恐懼是另一個障礙─害怕犯錯，尤其是害怕「傾家蕩產」的感覺。
但對投資裹足不前，最常見的理由卻很單純。大多數人不太了解投資，他們為此不安也不滿，因為從來沒有人告訴他們，日後將需要這方面知識。結果可能就是因循苟且，難以克服。
十年前，我有一位律師客戶就是無法起步，爽約數個月後終於現身與我見面。聽從我的建議後，如今這位客戶的身價是當年的十倍，年度化投資報酬率（annualized return）高達24％。
不相信投資能夠創造奇蹟的人，對於上述投資報酬可能會大吃一驚。投資界有個「72法則」（Rule of 72），一筆固定金額的資金依照固定的複利投資，以72除以這個固定的複利，就是這筆資金翻一倍的時間。若以上述客戶為例，三年後他的資金就是起步時的兩倍，因為72除以24等於3。
這位客戶最近向我坦承：「當初見面時，你一定認為我是老土，對於開始投資坐立難安。」他不了解的是，恐懼及躊躇不前絕對是正常反應。
筆者像對其他客戶一樣對他說，金錢具有高度的象徵價值，因此焦慮的情緒是百分之百的自然。金錢除了是交換的媒介外，潛意識上也具備愛、權力、自尊、羞恥及安全等參考價值。雖然每個人的參考價值不同，但這些價值都很強烈。
金錢引發的情緒，會掩蓋住一個令許多潛在投資人意外的事實─開始投資無異於開始從事其他新活動。投資新手覺得「事關鈔票，我得先深入了解」。其實，學習投資就像其他新事物，例如學習游泳，初學時誰是游泳冠軍呢？方法就是循序漸進，不要扭曲投資的單純平凡，別再把投資當成異常的事看待。
如果你是一位猶豫不決的投資人，你可能有恨不得馬上學會所有投資技巧的感覺。事實上，學習固然有助於缺乏自信的你，但過猶不及。如果你想要讀盡天下所有的投資建議，再整合為一，你的下場就像鐵達尼號，自已也痛苦不堪。
筆者建議客戶開始投資時，僅以小量資金且保守地操作，並按部就班地進行。因為從筆者的教導及建議的閱讀資料中，他們了解目前的投資風險不大，他們會逐漸累積投資知識。假以時日，他們終會放棄成為專家後才開始投資的矛盾想法。
這種由心理層面切入的作法，可降低焦慮、帶來報酬並強化動機。我也要求你像我的客戶一樣，承諾至少留在市場三年（這是一個市場週期的平均時間）。當然，希望你留在市場的時間遠超過三年。
投資世界中，很少朋友能像你自已的經驗那麼派得上用場，也很少投資顧問能像時間那麼睿智及全知。時間是致富的重點關鍵，此點一再提及，但大部分人不了解的是，時間也是心理上獲得安全感的關鍵。時間會消弭市場波動，也使你成為理財贏家，它甚至消弭情緒上可能的起伏，降低它們對成功的殺傷力。 我設計的起步課程是以你的安全感為首要考量，因此應該易學好懂。
「起步」課程 筆者第一次會晤客戶時，會與他們一起擬定一套理財計畫，分析目前及未來能夠掌握的資源，並設定長程目標，這也是所有優秀的投資顧問的作法。客戶開始投資前，我得確定他們備有閒置資金，緊急時能夠支應三到六個月的生活所需。我會徵詢他們投保壽險的額度是否足夠。我也會確定他們已經定期參與所有的稅負優惠投資方案，公司的401（K）方案，公司提供的認股權投資方案、個人退休帳戶（IRA），如為自僱型就業者，則是自僱個人帳戶（SEP），我也會考慮社會安全制度可能提供他們的福利及可能繼承的遺產。 討論這些基本動作時，我會觀察客戶是否不安，適時安撫他們，因為作為心理醫生，我知道起步之初，讓投資人無所顧忌很重要，在我們討論第一個投資選擇時，經常會出現猶豫不決的行徑，這是一種「退縮」的心理。
如果你覺得自已趨於保守，記住針對猶豫不決型投資人的基本課程，就是要協助你克服因循拖延的毛病，這種課程讓所有事物變得非常簡單且不出錯，不過你仍然有選擇。以下是若干你能夠採取的方法。
首先，決定起步時是投資共同基金或個別股票，但請記住，對於投資人心理而言，兩者各有所長。你可能知道，共同基金購買股票，你擁有這些股票一定的比例。買共同基金就是買專業管理、立即分散投資及不必自已記帳，讓你獲得情緒上的安全感。投資個別股票，你能掌握全盤，操作績效可能優於（或低於）投資基金。由於股票比基金更能表現「自我」，你能從認同自已的投資標的中獲得更大的滿足感。因此，你必須決定哪種方式讓你比較自在─藉助他人有經驗的雙手，或挑戰自已的能力。 筆者發現，大部分客戶都感覺投資共同基金比較自在，因為初入投資世界時，基金比較不會引發焦慮。本章將專注於基金，尤其是股票型基金，筆者將在下章討論如何建立個別股票的投資組合。
各式各樣的原則對投資人的心理都有幫助，以下是建立一個共同基金投資組合的若干原則：如果你能夠投資的金額低於一萬美元．原則：先買進單一基金。逐步買進某一基金，最好只買一種基金，直到投資總金額累積到1萬美元至2.5萬美元。如果你的所得在3萬美元到5萬美元之間，大概需要三年時間（每個月或每幾個月投資一次）才能達成你的目標。 只投資一種基金並累積至一定金額的限制，是基於一項重要的心理原則。看著自已的資金在一個地方逐漸成長會讓你更滿足，且在一定金額時（通常約在1萬美元到1.5萬美元之間）你會非常高興自已的成果。 筆者以前任職的醫院中，有一位技術人員每月固定投資一個共同基金，已經四年。他起步時也很猶豫不決，他告訴我「他的家族從來不從事投資」。在筆者的鼓勵下，他終於起步，第四年的1月份，他投資的共同基金已有1萬美元。當年年底（當年股市表現極佳）基金淨值成長39％，這位技術人員的資產躍升為1.4萬美元。對他而言，這是「情緒回報」（emotional payoff）的時刻，接下來好幾週他都嘴角帶笑，每次與我在大廳擦身而過，他更情不自禁地 喃喃自語「帥呆了」。
或許，我的同事如果投資三檔表現強勢的股票，資產也能累積到1.4萬美元，但情緒上的感受會不同，因為心理上，單一一筆資金似乎比分成數筆再加總後的資金，感覺要多。
數年來，筆者一直在研究醫生的投資習慣。一位醫生告訴我，如果他將所有資金都投入一個基金（麥哲倫基金），他會「覺得」績效比分散在數個不同的基金高，縱使後者也讓他賺錢。 對於投資新手尤其如此，盡可能達到最大的滿足點，因為滿足感會鼓勵你繼續投資。看著自已的鈔票穩扎穩打地成長，達到並超越「情緒回報」點，就會常帶給你滿足感。
「情緒回報」點很重要，因為大部分投資人都以正面態度展望未來─「如果基金資產目前為1.4萬美元，一到兩年內可能成長到2萬美元」。由於時間是投資成功的關鍵，你的情緒愈早連上一個時間架構，就愈能致富。 定期投資一檔基金，投資總金額達到2.5萬美元時，就該另起爐灶，買進另一個基金。當第二個基金的投資總額也逐漸累積到2.5萬美元時，再買第三個基金。每個基金都累積投資金額2.5萬美元後，彼此之間的資金可以流通。
有關分散持股：對筆者而言，重要的是建立一個金額大，且能讓你獲利的基金，不必一開始就為了分散持股建立多個基金。分散持股的原則雖然重要，但其重要性已被誇大。縱使你只有一檔共同基金，別忘了共同基金本身就已經分散持股。 將所有的雞蛋都放在同一個籃子，並且目不轉睛地看著它─馬克吐溫之語，包如契（Bernard Baruch）經常引述的建言。如果你能夠投資的金額為五萬美元
原則：立刻投資一半在共同基金，翌年再投資其餘一半。投資2.5萬美元在一檔共同基金，另外2.5萬美元則投入一年期美國公債。翌年賣掉公債，將所得的2.5萬美元投入另一檔共同基金。如果你能夠投資的金額為十萬美元
原則：立刻投資一半在共同基金，未來兩年內投資剩下的一半。將5萬美元分別買進兩檔基金，買進2.5萬美元的一年期美國公債，另外2.5萬美元則買進兩年期美國公債。翌年賣掉一年期美國公債，轉進第三個基金。第三年再賣掉兩年期公債，並將所得分散投入三個基金，或買進第四個基金。 逐步將資金投入證券市場，如果你的資金相當龐大，則分數年為之。 此舉的心理原因是，不致一次將所有資金投入空頭市場。最令新手感到氣餒的，莫過於投資計畫啟動之初，就遭受相當的損失。投資人可能擋不住焦慮及恐懼的感覺，終致放棄整個計畫。 此處也有一心理原則：從市場上賺來的錢雖然感覺很棒，似乎永遠不如賠掉的錢值錢。若以情緒的觀點計算，所賠的錢價值相當於所賺的錢的兩倍。
巴菲特（Warren Buffett）是當代最偉大的投資人之一，他認為投資成功有兩大法則，第一條是「永遠不要虧損」，第二條是「永遠不要忘記第一條法則」。 筆者認為巴菲特所指的「虧損」是，嚴重到會危及資本創造的虧損，因為由較小資本重新建立持股，比較困難。
以下舉例說明。如果讓你選擇，你願意將100美元以複利存入一個5％年利率的儲蓄帳戶，還是投入一個第一年上漲50％、翌年下跌50％、第三年再上漲50％的基金，你很可能選擇共同基金。事實上，儲蓄帳戶是較佳的選擇，因為三年後淨值將為115.76美元，共同基金則只有112.50美元，問題就出在第二年嚴重虧損。 如果你能審慎投資，並因此免於嚴重虧損，幾乎確定能夠創造相當的財富。接下來的章節，筆者將告訴你如何做到。同時，你必須遵循最重要的投資原則：那就是起步。如何選擇基金 起步時選擇一個強調價值，而非注重成長的基金。退而求其次，筆者會選擇價值與成長並重的基金（筆者將在下一章討論不同的投資作風）。
上述建議是筆者個人意見。受到葛拉漢的影響，我認為價值型投資是最成功的。價值型投資人包括巴菲特、莫格（CharleyMunger）、坦伯頓及蘇洛斯（Walter Schloss）等人，他們成功的紀錄可證明價值投資的優點，筆者也發現價值型投資最適合自已的心理面，因為我一想到能夠以25美分買進一美元的東西就興奮無比，此外，我也願意等候兩到三年才歡欣收成。
由於你會先買進一檔基金一段時間，就得選擇一個紀錄輝煌的基金，才有安全感。以下是幾個考慮因素： ．以往績效。從《晨星共同基金》或《富比世雜誌》找出績效最佳的基金，或由《富比世雜誌》夏季季末一期中的基金榮譽榜，找出長期績效不錯的基金。筆者較喜歡《富比世雜誌》的排名，因為其中也計入基金在空頭市場的表現，《晨星》是每兩周發行一次的市場通訊，詳細評估共同基金並排名。五顆星代表最高評等，一顆星代表最低。
理想上, 你應該選擇空頭市場仍有A等、多頭市場仍有B等的基金。為什麼不都是A等呢？因為符合這種標準的基金不多，更重要的原因是，多頭市場中A、B甚至C等的基金，差別其實不大。你真正需要的是最能在空頭市場中保護資本的基金。因此空頭市場才需要A等基金。 觀察一個基金五年到十年的績效，拿它和標準普爾公司500種股價指數（S&P500）或適當的指數相比。假設一個基金績效表現最佳的一年是1986年，當年成長34％，高於一個多頭市場的平均值；1987年表現最差，衰退14％，低於一個空頭市場的平均值。這種基金就是頗佳的選擇。 評估基金永遠要考慮它的長期績效，而非起伏較大的半年或過去一年。質疑長期績效正確性的文獻很多，但目前還沒有其他方法可提供你情緒上更大的安全感，尤其是你才剛起步。
管理的持續性。確定創造優良績效的基金經理人，仍在管理這檔基金。
起伏是否太大。假設你找到一個績效不錯的基金，但某一段時間的績效大幅衰退39％，最近卻未再下降。這檔基金可能在你決定進場時回檔，正如我先前所說，你希望在情緒上及財務上都能避免一進場就受挫。
資產規模。基金規模愈大，成長就愈慢，基金經理人的績效也愈難超越其他基金。目標應該是資產低於10億美元的基金。
稅負考量。如果你不依靠股利收入過日子，由稅負因素考慮，你最好買進能夠提供資本利得的基金。了解一檔基金的投資報酬中，股利及資本利得的比重各為多少。了解一檔基金持有一檔股票的平均時間，週轉率低代表成本及稅負都較輕。
財務槓桿。向銀行及金融機構融資的資產不得高於基金總資產的10％，否則對你而言，這檔基金就太過投機。
通常沒有其他費用。若其他條件相同，最好選擇沒有其他費用的基金。但記住：投資世界中，少有公平的事情。部分需要佣金或其他費用的基金，投資報酬較高。如果你準備至少在市場停留三年，支付費用可能不見得是很負面的因素。
（第二篇性格與投資組合，你會發現需要管理費的基金，對部分投資人反而具有正面的心理價值。） 如果你的投資金額很大，一次投資2.5萬美元，三年內投資7.5萬美元，你就可議定管理費，並可藉此學得投資人的自信。年齡與選擇基金 你的「資產配置」，投資組合中股票、債券及現金的比重，視你的目標、年齡及對年齡的感覺而定。以下原則適用於包括個股及債券的投資組合，也適用於投資基金，目前暫以基金為主要考量。
20歲到30歲的投資人儲蓄的主要目的，是買房子、子女教育費用及其他開支，因此得找出一檔評等最佳的股票型基金。你所選擇的基金應該反映你本身理財的積極程度及對風險的容忍程度。依你的年齡，數種心理因素可吸收因積極理財帶來的風險。例如，時間是投資最大的伙伴，目前站在你這邊，如果某一年投資績效不佳，你知道終會扳回，且你處於升遷速度最快的年齡層，收入可能繼續成長。比起年紀較大且收入固定的人而言，你較容易度過投資虧損。
從45歲左右到50歲，你的心理趨於謹慎。你希望確保退休後的生活，時間不多，且事業更上一層樓的機會也不多了。穩定成長可能是你想追求的目標，因此包含股票及債券的平衡型基金是較佳的選擇。
退休時，應該由你已經累積的財富及你的財務安全感，決定資產配置。如果你的資金足夠維持生活水準（你若希望每年仍有4萬美元的收入，就需要100萬美元的財富，如果是10萬美元，就需要250萬美元）。而且希望資本成長，就考慮股票型基金。必要時，你能動用原有資本。較富有的退休人士，心理上也感覺較能花錢，但情緒上仍需保守。如果想加強自已的安全感，就可考慮平衡型基金或債券基金。 決定資產配置時，大部分退休人士心理上都會受到父母及祖父母壽命的影響。長壽的家族通常較保守，因為他們需要用錢的時間較長，不過，這也不是什麼值得難過的狀況。 「
無憂無懼」的學習
無論投資之初是購買共同基金或股票，或兩者皆是，你百分之百會想要先好好讀點資料，但累積資訊只會製造、而非減輕焦慮。 有時候新手覺得非要「惡補」一些以往不知道的事情，可是一旦這麼做，很快會補過頭。補過頭的危險在於，它會澆熄你的投資慾望，就像進場就賠錢一樣。因此，筆者建議客戶放輕鬆，遵循一套「篩選及去蕪」（Sifting and Skimming）的作法。
你要做的是篩選各種投資書籍，選出數種對你最有價值的書；大致瀏覽你已經選擇的，並逐漸精讀，你覺得喜歡，就要確定自已閱讀後沒有壓力，再繼續下去。 有些理財書籍保證有超人一等的報酬或能夠迅速致富，千萬別上當。對筆者而言，葛拉漢的《智慧投資人》是最好的入門書，要投資一定得先讀此書。這本書深具價值，筆者每年必定重讀一次。
「第二本最具價值」的理財書籍是費雪（Philip Fisher）的《普通股票及非常獲利》（Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits）。葛拉漢及費雪的書都是簡短明瞭，看熟後自然能熟悉投資程序。 其他有用的書還包括英格爾（Louis Engel）的《如何購買股票》（How to Buy Stocks），林區（Peter Lynch）的《選股戰略》（One Up on Wall Street）、奎恩（Jane Bryant Quinn）的《善用自已的錢》（Making the Most of Your Money）及齊威格（Martin Zweig）的《贏得華爾街》（Winning on Wall Street）。 進一步的功課就得每天過濾《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）或《投資人商務日報》（Investor's Business Daily）或兩者選一，就像看其他報紙一樣，找出你有興趣的報導。幾乎所有人都覺得，《華爾街日報》頭版中人情趣味的報導相當迷人。嘗試閱讀《華爾街耳語》（Heard on the Street）這個專欄（同版也有股票、債券及基金的每日行情），它讓你了解華爾街的思考方式，在你努力成為真正投資人的同時，它也讓你在心理上成為投資人。
無論你選擇那一份報紙，你最後都會發現自已愈讀愈多，若否，也無所謂。縱使只是瀏覽，也要培養固定閱讀金融刊物的習慣，對你的投資自尊會產生意想不到的奇蹟。
巴菲特創辦的波克夏哈薩威公司，是一家超級成功的控股公司，他在股東年度報告提出相當實際的建言，也是有趣的瀏覽目標。事實上，這可能是最好的投資「書籍」，寫信到Berkshire Hathaway 1440 Kiewit Plaza, Omaha,NE 68131函索，即可取得這份年度報告。
成人推廣教育課程也能提供許多資訊，如果你能藉助同學的支持（他們也是投資新手）鼓勵自已起步，這種課程也具有心理效益。不過，如果你與他人比較，認定旁人比你懂得多，並以此作為拒絕起步的藉口，這種課程就弊大於利。
提醒你，如果你決定上課，註冊前確定指導講師的素質。與證券公司或金融公司有關係的人，也許更在乎爭取客戶，而非提供客觀的建言。別再猶豫 發現自已起步時猶豫不決，可能有數種疑慮造成心理障礙。
這些障礙都不難理解，它們一直都是「常理」（commonwise），但它們仍然會誤導我們，所以要設法調整──敝開心懷。
有人認為得等到「正確時機」再進場。這四個字，比其他字眼帶給投資新手更多的困擾。 新客戶經常會問，「約翰，你難道無法告訴我正確的進場時機嗎？」聽到這種問題時，我知道它代表兩種意義。財務上，此人要求我預測市場的底部，在最有利的時機進場投資。但心理層面上，這個人所問的是，「你能否保護我免於受傷？」，投資人能夠感受到的所有疑慮都展露無遺。
等待「正確時機」是想避免恐懼、風險及虧損等問題，但這些都是投資過程中很自然的一部分。這些問題根本無法避免，但擁有一定的知識，即可減輕這些問題帶來的壓力，經由時間及耐心的考驗，你會成為一位理財贏家。這種知識正是在你經歷低潮時的強力消毒劑。
實務上，進場投資根本沒有所謂的「正確時機」，因為無法抓住市場的脈動。絕對沒有人能夠知道底部何在，一昧等候而不進場，失去賺錢良機的可能性，遠高於進場但虧損。
筆者1995年7月時預測這波多頭市場可能接近頭部，當然我不確定，因為無人能夠預測市場。假設我當時建議新客戶暫時不進場，他們就賺不到翌年超過20％的漲幅。如果只是等待時機，你可能永遠留在場外，更可能永遠活在後悔的陰影下。 另外一個不願開始投資的理由是，他們認為，比起「專家」，自己吃虧太多。但許多投資人不了解的是，特定情形下，散戶投資人反而能夠占到便宜。
想想看：專業投資人（共同基金經理人及法人）短期內績效壓力極大，否則就得走路。
華爾街每天都有謠言，基金經理人被迫隨著群眾起舞；他們無法承擔置身事外的風險。如果你自行選股，你就不需要在意短期績效，也就不必盲從群眾。
專業經理人唯一的優勢是，投資是他們全天候的工作，這當然不完全正確，因為他們得花費很多時間管理基金，例如會晤客戶、行銷工作及記帳。有時候，專業人士的消息管道也較多，但如今電子媒體風行，這個優勢也不如以往重要。
市場顯得古怪難測，是許多投資人猶豫不決的原因。市場絕對不是一個穩定的地方，但實際上它比你想像的更容易預測，因為兩大心理法則能夠讓你與它平起平坐。牢記它們，你就占了風。
盈餘預期法則（the law of unexpected results）
著名基金經理人及《富比士雜誌》專欄作家杜瑞曼（David Dreman）發現這條法則。筆者稱它為「盈餘預期法則」，根據我一項未公開的研究顯示，這條法則也適用於投資以外的多種預期心理。
心理上，市場對看好的股票會預期較高，也就是當前的熱門股，通常本益比較高，不看好的股票，市場預期較低，也就是冷門股的本益比較低。
高本益比的股票，如果盈餘若「略高」於預期，股價幾乎不漲，因為市場預期心理是盈餘會「遠高」於預估值。如果盈餘與預期相同，甚至低於預期，股價會下跌，因為市場極度失望。
另一方面，低本益比的股票，盈餘如果與預估相同，甚至高於預估，股價漲幅會高於大盤，因為市場心理預期盈餘不會這麼好。如果盈餘低於預估，股價也很少下跌，因為市場心理已經預期盈餘不佳。
這條法則幫助你預測盈餘報告公布時，市場可能的反應，讓你占得先機。它也鼓勵你在開始投資時買進冷門股（低本益比），因為它們若上漲，你就賺得比較多，萬一下跌，你的損失也較少。
「盈餘預期法則」也支持價值型投資，因為它告訴你上檔空間仍大且下檔風險小的投資標的。縱使你不是價值型投資人，這條法則也讓你洞悉市場行為。 重大新聞法則（the law of extreme news） 重大新聞發布時，市場反應激烈，若是利多消息，股價上揚，利空則下跌，且市場對利空消息的反應比利多消息強。財務分析師尼德荷夫（Victor Niederhoffer）研究1950年到1966年的報紙標題，發現消息愈重大，市場波動愈大。他也發現，利空消息發布後數日內股價會反彈，利多消息曝光後數日內股價會回檔。這條法則幫助你該如何反應，你常常能把利空消息（尤其是政治或經濟新聞）視為買進機會。
最後，如果股市是賭場，也是一個好賭場，因為勝出的機率對你有利。從歷史觀察，股市上漲的頻率是下跌的兩倍，報酬一直相當可觀。自本世紀以來，S&P500（在紐約證券交易所掛牌上市的500家主要股票）平均年投資報酬率為9.5％，相對於公司債的7.0％及國庫券的3.3％，使得股票成為累積財富的最佳工具（不動產例外，後者1933年到1986年投資報酬率極佳）。
市場似乎波動很大，但投資與賭博是最沒有關係的兩件事。不像賭博，投資需要作功課、判斷、耐心及長期經營的決心，最棒的是，它的收穫頗豐。
如果你願意打造自已的財務遠景，如果你希望為自已及所愛的人做最佳的打算，情緒上你已經就定位，邁向成功的投資，且目標剩下不到一半的距離。只要開始走上這條穩扎穩打的投資之路，長期下來必能帶給你應得的財富。
情緒才是主角；投資，就是控制情緒的遊戲。但投資專家、經濟學家、心理學家都無奈地承認，這個領域是他們對股市認知的「失去的一環」。
超越技術分析與基本分析,「失去的一環」，指出人類各種投資心態，要追溯到孩童時期與父母的關係，並教你破解這些暗藏的心結，提出適合你的投資組合。
起步心理學
有時候萬事起頭難，難到許多人從未踏出第一步。這實在是憾事一件，因為投資股票長期而言是致富的最佳途徑，也能使你的財務比想像中更有保障，簡言之，它能讓你的美夢成真。
這些報酬都在引頸企盼你的到來，我也擔保你絕對能獲得這些報酬，但你必須在踏出第一步時覺得毫無所懼。
有許多強力的心理因素會阻礙一般人起步，其中最強烈的應屬罪惡感，這也許與試圖超越父母或兄弟、社會地位提升或在眾人皆貧之際累積財富有關。如果財富是繼承而來，罪惡感可能來自不應擁有非辛苦所得之財的觀念，或因為遺產來自你不喜歡甚至討厭的親戚。
恐懼是另一個障礙─害怕犯錯，尤其是害怕「傾家蕩產」的感覺。
但對投資裹足不前，最常見的理由卻很單純。大多數人不太了解投資，他們為此不安也不滿，因為從來沒有人告訴他們，日後將需要這方面知識。結果可能就是因循苟且，難以克服。
十年前，我有一位律師客戶就是無法起步，爽約數個月後終於現身與我見面。聽從我的建議後，如今這位客戶的身價是當年的十倍，年度化投資報酬率（annualized return）高達24％。
不相信投資能夠創造奇蹟的人，對於上述投資報酬可能會大吃一驚。投資界有個「72法則」（Rule of 72），一筆固定金額的資金依照固定的複利投資，以72除以這個固定的複利，就是這筆資金翻一倍的時間。若以上述客戶為例，三年後他的資金就是起步時的兩倍，因為72除以24等於3。
這位客戶最近向我坦承：「當初見面時，你一定認為我是老土，對於開始投資坐立難安。」他不了解的是，恐懼及躊躇不前絕對是正常反應。
筆者像對其他客戶一樣對他說，金錢具有高度的象徵價值，因此焦慮的情緒是百分之百的自然。金錢除了是交換的媒介外，潛意識上也具備愛、權力、自尊、羞恥及安全等參考價值。雖然每個人的參考價值不同，但這些價值都很強烈。
金錢引發的情緒，會掩蓋住一個令許多潛在投資人意外的事實─開始投資無異於開始從事其他新活動。投資新手覺得「事關鈔票，我得先深入了解」。其實，學習投資就像其他新事物，例如學習游泳，初學時誰是游泳冠軍呢？方法就是循序漸進，不要扭曲投資的單純平凡，別再把投資當成異常的事看待。
如果你是一位猶豫不決的投資人，你可能有恨不得馬上學會所有投資技巧的感覺。事實上，學習固然有助於缺乏自信的你，但過猶不及。如果你想要讀盡天下所有的投資建議，再整合為一，你的下場就像鐵達尼號，自已也痛苦不堪。
筆者建議客戶開始投資時，僅以小量資金且保守地操作，並按部就班地進行。因為從筆者的教導及建議的閱讀資料中，他們了解目前的投資風險不大，他們會逐漸累積投資知識。假以時日，他們終會放棄成為專家後才開始投資的矛盾想法。
這種由心理層面切入的作法，可降低焦慮、帶來報酬並強化動機。我也要求你像我的客戶一樣，承諾至少留在市場三年（這是一個市場週期的平均時間）。當然，希望你留在市場的時間遠超過三年。
投資世界中，很少朋友能像你自已的經驗那麼派得上用場，也很少投資顧問能像時間那麼睿智及全知。時間是致富的重點關鍵，此點一再提及，但大部分人不了解的是，時間也是心理上獲得安全感的關鍵。時間會消弭市場波動，也使你成為理財贏家，它甚至消弭情緒上可能的起伏，降低它們對成功的殺傷力。 我設計的起步課程是以你的安全感為首要考量，因此應該易學好懂。
「起步」課程 筆者第一次會晤客戶時，會與他們一起擬定一套理財計畫，分析目前及未來能夠掌握的資源，並設定長程目標，這也是所有優秀的投資顧問的作法。客戶開始投資前，我得確定他們備有閒置資金，緊急時能夠支應三到六個月的生活所需。我會徵詢他們投保壽險的額度是否足夠。我也會確定他們已經定期參與所有的稅負優惠投資方案，公司的401（K）方案，公司提供的認股權投資方案、個人退休帳戶（IRA），如為自僱型就業者，則是自僱個人帳戶（SEP），我也會考慮社會安全制度可能提供他們的福利及可能繼承的遺產。 討論這些基本動作時，我會觀察客戶是否不安，適時安撫他們，因為作為心理醫生，我知道起步之初，讓投資人無所顧忌很重要，在我們討論第一個投資選擇時，經常會出現猶豫不決的行徑，這是一種「退縮」的心理。
如果你覺得自已趨於保守，記住針對猶豫不決型投資人的基本課程，就是要協助你克服因循拖延的毛病，這種課程讓所有事物變得非常簡單且不出錯，不過你仍然有選擇。以下是若干你能夠採取的方法。
首先，決定起步時是投資共同基金或個別股票，但請記住，對於投資人心理而言，兩者各有所長。你可能知道，共同基金購買股票，你擁有這些股票一定的比例。買共同基金就是買專業管理、立即分散投資及不必自已記帳，讓你獲得情緒上的安全感。投資個別股票，你能掌握全盤，操作績效可能優於（或低於）投資基金。由於股票比基金更能表現「自我」，你能從認同自已的投資標的中獲得更大的滿足感。因此，你必須決定哪種方式讓你比較自在─藉助他人有經驗的雙手，或挑戰自已的能力。 筆者發現，大部分客戶都感覺投資共同基金比較自在，因為初入投資世界時，基金比較不會引發焦慮。本章將專注於基金，尤其是股票型基金，筆者將在下章討論如何建立個別股票的投資組合。
各式各樣的原則對投資人的心理都有幫助，以下是建立一個共同基金投資組合的若干原則：如果你能夠投資的金額低於一萬美元．原則：先買進單一基金。逐步買進某一基金，最好只買一種基金，直到投資總金額累積到1萬美元至2.5萬美元。如果你的所得在3萬美元到5萬美元之間，大概需要三年時間（每個月或每幾個月投資一次）才能達成你的目標。 只投資一種基金並累積至一定金額的限制，是基於一項重要的心理原則。看著自已的資金在一個地方逐漸成長會讓你更滿足，且在一定金額時（通常約在1萬美元到1.5萬美元之間）你會非常高興自已的成果。 筆者以前任職的醫院中，有一位技術人員每月固定投資一個共同基金，已經四年。他起步時也很猶豫不決，他告訴我「他的家族從來不從事投資」。在筆者的鼓勵下，他終於起步，第四年的1月份，他投資的共同基金已有1萬美元。當年年底（當年股市表現極佳）基金淨值成長39％，這位技術人員的資產躍升為1.4萬美元。對他而言，這是「情緒回報」（emotional payoff）的時刻，接下來好幾週他都嘴角帶笑，每次與我在大廳擦身而過，他更情不自禁地 喃喃自語「帥呆了」。
或許，我的同事如果投資三檔表現強勢的股票，資產也能累積到1.4萬美元，但情緒上的感受會不同，因為心理上，單一一筆資金似乎比分成數筆再加總後的資金，感覺要多。
數年來，筆者一直在研究醫生的投資習慣。一位醫生告訴我，如果他將所有資金都投入一個基金（麥哲倫基金），他會「覺得」績效比分散在數個不同的基金高，縱使後者也讓他賺錢。 對於投資新手尤其如此，盡可能達到最大的滿足點，因為滿足感會鼓勵你繼續投資。看著自已的鈔票穩扎穩打地成長，達到並超越「情緒回報」點，就會常帶給你滿足感。
「情緒回報」點很重要，因為大部分投資人都以正面態度展望未來─「如果基金資產目前為1.4萬美元，一到兩年內可能成長到2萬美元」。由於時間是投資成功的關鍵，你的情緒愈早連上一個時間架構，就愈能致富。 定期投資一檔基金，投資總金額達到2.5萬美元時，就該另起爐灶，買進另一個基金。當第二個基金的投資總額也逐漸累積到2.5萬美元時，再買第三個基金。每個基金都累積投資金額2.5萬美元後，彼此之間的資金可以流通。
有關分散持股：對筆者而言，重要的是建立一個金額大，且能讓你獲利的基金，不必一開始就為了分散持股建立多個基金。分散持股的原則雖然重要，但其重要性已被誇大。縱使你只有一檔共同基金，別忘了共同基金本身就已經分散持股。 將所有的雞蛋都放在同一個籃子，並且目不轉睛地看著它─馬克吐溫之語，包如契（Bernard Baruch）經常引述的建言。如果你能夠投資的金額為五萬美元
原則：立刻投資一半在共同基金，翌年再投資其餘一半。投資2.5萬美元在一檔共同基金，另外2.5萬美元則投入一年期美國公債。翌年賣掉公債，將所得的2.5萬美元投入另一檔共同基金。如果你能夠投資的金額為十萬美元
原則：立刻投資一半在共同基金，未來兩年內投資剩下的一半。將5萬美元分別買進兩檔基金，買進2.5萬美元的一年期美國公債，另外2.5萬美元則買進兩年期美國公債。翌年賣掉一年期美國公債，轉進第三個基金。第三年再賣掉兩年期公債，並將所得分散投入三個基金，或買進第四個基金。 逐步將資金投入證券市場，如果你的資金相當龐大，則分數年為之。 此舉的心理原因是，不致一次將所有資金投入空頭市場。最令新手感到氣餒的，莫過於投資計畫啟動之初，就遭受相當的損失。投資人可能擋不住焦慮及恐懼的感覺，終致放棄整個計畫。 此處也有一心理原則：從市場上賺來的錢雖然感覺很棒，似乎永遠不如賠掉的錢值錢。若以情緒的觀點計算，所賠的錢價值相當於所賺的錢的兩倍。
巴菲特（Warren Buffett）是當代最偉大的投資人之一，他認為投資成功有兩大法則，第一條是「永遠不要虧損」，第二條是「永遠不要忘記第一條法則」。 筆者認為巴菲特所指的「虧損」是，嚴重到會危及資本創造的虧損，因為由較小資本重新建立持股，比較困難。
以下舉例說明。如果讓你選擇，你願意將100美元以複利存入一個5％年利率的儲蓄帳戶，還是投入一個第一年上漲50％、翌年下跌50％、第三年再上漲50％的基金，你很可能選擇共同基金。事實上，儲蓄帳戶是較佳的選擇，因為三年後淨值將為115.76美元，共同基金則只有112.50美元，問題就出在第二年嚴重虧損。 如果你能審慎投資，並因此免於嚴重虧損，幾乎確定能夠創造相當的財富。接下來的章節，筆者將告訴你如何做到。同時，你必須遵循最重要的投資原則：那就是起步。如何選擇基金 起步時選擇一個強調價值，而非注重成長的基金。退而求其次，筆者會選擇價值與成長並重的基金（筆者將在下一章討論不同的投資作風）。
上述建議是筆者個人意見。受到葛拉漢的影響，我認為價值型投資是最成功的。價值型投資人包括巴菲特、莫格（CharleyMunger）、坦伯頓及蘇洛斯（Walter Schloss）等人，他們成功的紀錄可證明價值投資的優點，筆者也發現價值型投資最適合自已的心理面，因為我一想到能夠以25美分買進一美元的東西就興奮無比，此外，我也願意等候兩到三年才歡欣收成。
由於你會先買進一檔基金一段時間，就得選擇一個紀錄輝煌的基金，才有安全感。以下是幾個考慮因素： ．以往績效。從《晨星共同基金》或《富比世雜誌》找出績效最佳的基金，或由《富比世雜誌》夏季季末一期中的基金榮譽榜，找出長期績效不錯的基金。筆者較喜歡《富比世雜誌》的排名，因為其中也計入基金在空頭市場的表現，《晨星》是每兩周發行一次的市場通訊，詳細評估共同基金並排名。五顆星代表最高評等，一顆星代表最低。
理想上, 你應該選擇空頭市場仍有A等、多頭市場仍有B等的基金。為什麼不都是A等呢？因為符合這種標準的基金不多，更重要的原因是，多頭市場中A、B甚至C等的基金，差別其實不大。你真正需要的是最能在空頭市場中保護資本的基金。因此空頭市場才需要A等基金。 觀察一個基金五年到十年的績效，拿它和標準普爾公司500種股價指數（S&P500）或適當的指數相比。假設一個基金績效表現最佳的一年是1986年，當年成長34％，高於一個多頭市場的平均值；1987年表現最差，衰退14％，低於一個空頭市場的平均值。這種基金就是頗佳的選擇。 評估基金永遠要考慮它的長期績效，而非起伏較大的半年或過去一年。質疑長期績效正確性的文獻很多，但目前還沒有其他方法可提供你情緒上更大的安全感，尤其是你才剛起步。
管理的持續性。確定創造優良績效的基金經理人，仍在管理這檔基金。
起伏是否太大。假設你找到一個績效不錯的基金，但某一段時間的績效大幅衰退39％，最近卻未再下降。這檔基金可能在你決定進場時回檔，正如我先前所說，你希望在情緒上及財務上都能避免一進場就受挫。
資產規模。基金規模愈大，成長就愈慢，基金經理人的績效也愈難超越其他基金。目標應該是資產低於10億美元的基金。
稅負考量。如果你不依靠股利收入過日子，由稅負因素考慮，你最好買進能夠提供資本利得的基金。了解一檔基金的投資報酬中，股利及資本利得的比重各為多少。了解一檔基金持有一檔股票的平均時間，週轉率低代表成本及稅負都較輕。
財務槓桿。向銀行及金融機構融資的資產不得高於基金總資產的10％，否則對你而言，這檔基金就太過投機。
通常沒有其他費用。若其他條件相同，最好選擇沒有其他費用的基金。但記住：投資世界中，少有公平的事情。部分需要佣金或其他費用的基金，投資報酬較高。如果你準備至少在市場停留三年，支付費用可能不見得是很負面的因素。
（第二篇性格與投資組合，你會發現需要管理費的基金，對部分投資人反而具有正面的心理價值。） 如果你的投資金額很大，一次投資2.5萬美元，三年內投資7.5萬美元，你就可議定管理費，並可藉此學得投資人的自信。年齡與選擇基金 你的「資產配置」，投資組合中股票、債券及現金的比重，視你的目標、年齡及對年齡的感覺而定。以下原則適用於包括個股及債券的投資組合，也適用於投資基金，目前暫以基金為主要考量。
20歲到30歲的投資人儲蓄的主要目的，是買房子、子女教育費用及其他開支，因此得找出一檔評等最佳的股票型基金。你所選擇的基金應該反映你本身理財的積極程度及對風險的容忍程度。依你的年齡，數種心理因素可吸收因積極理財帶來的風險。例如，時間是投資最大的伙伴，目前站在你這邊，如果某一年投資績效不佳，你知道終會扳回，且你處於升遷速度最快的年齡層，收入可能繼續成長。比起年紀較大且收入固定的人而言，你較容易度過投資虧損。
從45歲左右到50歲，你的心理趨於謹慎。你希望確保退休後的生活，時間不多，且事業更上一層樓的機會也不多了。穩定成長可能是你想追求的目標，因此包含股票及債券的平衡型基金是較佳的選擇。
退休時，應該由你已經累積的財富及你的財務安全感，決定資產配置。如果你的資金足夠維持生活水準（你若希望每年仍有4萬美元的收入，就需要100萬美元的財富，如果是10萬美元，就需要250萬美元）。而且希望資本成長，就考慮股票型基金。必要時，你能動用原有資本。較富有的退休人士，心理上也感覺較能花錢，但情緒上仍需保守。如果想加強自已的安全感，就可考慮平衡型基金或債券基金。 決定資產配置時，大部分退休人士心理上都會受到父母及祖父母壽命的影響。長壽的家族通常較保守，因為他們需要用錢的時間較長，不過，這也不是什麼值得難過的狀況。 「
無憂無懼」的學習
無論投資之初是購買共同基金或股票，或兩者皆是，你百分之百會想要先好好讀點資料，但累積資訊只會製造、而非減輕焦慮。 有時候新手覺得非要「惡補」一些以往不知道的事情，可是一旦這麼做，很快會補過頭。補過頭的危險在於，它會澆熄你的投資慾望，就像進場就賠錢一樣。因此，筆者建議客戶放輕鬆，遵循一套「篩選及去蕪」（Sifting and Skimming）的作法。
你要做的是篩選各種投資書籍，選出數種對你最有價值的書；大致瀏覽你已經選擇的，並逐漸精讀，你覺得喜歡，就要確定自已閱讀後沒有壓力，再繼續下去。 有些理財書籍保證有超人一等的報酬或能夠迅速致富，千萬別上當。對筆者而言，葛拉漢的《智慧投資人》是最好的入門書，要投資一定得先讀此書。這本書深具價值，筆者每年必定重讀一次。
「第二本最具價值」的理財書籍是費雪（Philip Fisher）的《普通股票及非常獲利》（Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits）。葛拉漢及費雪的書都是簡短明瞭，看熟後自然能熟悉投資程序。 其他有用的書還包括英格爾（Louis Engel）的《如何購買股票》（How to Buy Stocks），林區（Peter Lynch）的《選股戰略》（One Up on Wall Street）、奎恩（Jane Bryant Quinn）的《善用自已的錢》（Making the Most of Your Money）及齊威格（Martin Zweig）的《贏得華爾街》（Winning on Wall Street）。 進一步的功課就得每天過濾《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）或《投資人商務日報》（Investor's Business Daily）或兩者選一，就像看其他報紙一樣，找出你有興趣的報導。幾乎所有人都覺得，《華爾街日報》頭版中人情趣味的報導相當迷人。嘗試閱讀《華爾街耳語》（Heard on the Street）這個專欄（同版也有股票、債券及基金的每日行情），它讓你了解華爾街的思考方式，在你努力成為真正投資人的同時，它也讓你在心理上成為投資人。
無論你選擇那一份報紙，你最後都會發現自已愈讀愈多，若否，也無所謂。縱使只是瀏覽，也要培養固定閱讀金融刊物的習慣，對你的投資自尊會產生意想不到的奇蹟。
巴菲特創辦的波克夏哈薩威公司，是一家超級成功的控股公司，他在股東年度報告提出相當實際的建言，也是有趣的瀏覽目標。事實上，這可能是最好的投資「書籍」，寫信到Berkshire Hathaway 1440 Kiewit Plaza, Omaha,NE 68131函索，即可取得這份年度報告。
成人推廣教育課程也能提供許多資訊，如果你能藉助同學的支持（他們也是投資新手）鼓勵自已起步，這種課程也具有心理效益。不過，如果你與他人比較，認定旁人比你懂得多，並以此作為拒絕起步的藉口，這種課程就弊大於利。
提醒你，如果你決定上課，註冊前確定指導講師的素質。與證券公司或金融公司有關係的人，也許更在乎爭取客戶，而非提供客觀的建言。別再猶豫 發現自已起步時猶豫不決，可能有數種疑慮造成心理障礙。
這些障礙都不難理解，它們一直都是「常理」（commonwise），但它們仍然會誤導我們，所以要設法調整──敝開心懷。
有人認為得等到「正確時機」再進場。這四個字，比其他字眼帶給投資新手更多的困擾。 新客戶經常會問，「約翰，你難道無法告訴我正確的進場時機嗎？」聽到這種問題時，我知道它代表兩種意義。財務上，此人要求我預測市場的底部，在最有利的時機進場投資。但心理層面上，這個人所問的是，「你能否保護我免於受傷？」，投資人能夠感受到的所有疑慮都展露無遺。
等待「正確時機」是想避免恐懼、風險及虧損等問題，但這些都是投資過程中很自然的一部分。這些問題根本無法避免，但擁有一定的知識，即可減輕這些問題帶來的壓力，經由時間及耐心的考驗，你會成為一位理財贏家。這種知識正是在你經歷低潮時的強力消毒劑。
實務上，進場投資根本沒有所謂的「正確時機」，因為無法抓住市場的脈動。絕對沒有人能夠知道底部何在，一昧等候而不進場，失去賺錢良機的可能性，遠高於進場但虧損。
筆者1995年7月時預測這波多頭市場可能接近頭部，當然我不確定，因為無人能夠預測市場。假設我當時建議新客戶暫時不進場，他們就賺不到翌年超過20％的漲幅。如果只是等待時機，你可能永遠留在場外，更可能永遠活在後悔的陰影下。 另外一個不願開始投資的理由是，他們認為，比起「專家」，自己吃虧太多。但許多投資人不了解的是，特定情形下，散戶投資人反而能夠占到便宜。
想想看：專業投資人（共同基金經理人及法人）短期內績效壓力極大，否則就得走路。
華爾街每天都有謠言，基金經理人被迫隨著群眾起舞；他們無法承擔置身事外的風險。如果你自行選股，你就不需要在意短期績效，也就不必盲從群眾。
專業經理人唯一的優勢是，投資是他們全天候的工作，這當然不完全正確，因為他們得花費很多時間管理基金，例如會晤客戶、行銷工作及記帳。有時候，專業人士的消息管道也較多，但如今電子媒體風行，這個優勢也不如以往重要。
市場顯得古怪難測，是許多投資人猶豫不決的原因。市場絕對不是一個穩定的地方，但實際上它比你想像的更容易預測，因為兩大心理法則能夠讓你與它平起平坐。牢記它們，你就占了風。
盈餘預期法則（the law of unexpected results）
著名基金經理人及《富比士雜誌》專欄作家杜瑞曼（David Dreman）發現這條法則。筆者稱它為「盈餘預期法則」，根據我一項未公開的研究顯示，這條法則也適用於投資以外的多種預期心理。
心理上，市場對看好的股票會預期較高，也就是當前的熱門股，通常本益比較高，不看好的股票，市場預期較低，也就是冷門股的本益比較低。
高本益比的股票，如果盈餘若「略高」於預期，股價幾乎不漲，因為市場預期心理是盈餘會「遠高」於預估值。如果盈餘與預期相同，甚至低於預期，股價會下跌，因為市場極度失望。
另一方面，低本益比的股票，盈餘如果與預估相同，甚至高於預估，股價漲幅會高於大盤，因為市場心理預期盈餘不會這麼好。如果盈餘低於預估，股價也很少下跌，因為市場心理已經預期盈餘不佳。
這條法則幫助你預測盈餘報告公布時，市場可能的反應，讓你占得先機。它也鼓勵你在開始投資時買進冷門股（低本益比），因為它們若上漲，你就賺得比較多，萬一下跌，你的損失也較少。
「盈餘預期法則」也支持價值型投資，因為它告訴你上檔空間仍大且下檔風險小的投資標的。縱使你不是價值型投資人，這條法則也讓你洞悉市場行為。 重大新聞法則（the law of extreme news） 重大新聞發布時，市場反應激烈，若是利多消息，股價上揚，利空則下跌，且市場對利空消息的反應比利多消息強。財務分析師尼德荷夫（Victor Niederhoffer）研究1950年到1966年的報紙標題，發現消息愈重大，市場波動愈大。他也發現，利空消息發布後數日內股價會反彈，利多消息曝光後數日內股價會回檔。這條法則幫助你該如何反應，你常常能把利空消息（尤其是政治或經濟新聞）視為買進機會。
最後，如果股市是賭場，也是一個好賭場，因為勝出的機率對你有利。從歷史觀察，股市上漲的頻率是下跌的兩倍，報酬一直相當可觀。自本世紀以來，S&P500（在紐約證券交易所掛牌上市的500家主要股票）平均年投資報酬率為9.5％，相對於公司債的7.0％及國庫券的3.3％，使得股票成為累積財富的最佳工具（不動產例外，後者1933年到1986年投資報酬率極佳）。
市場似乎波動很大，但投資與賭博是最沒有關係的兩件事。不像賭博，投資需要作功課、判斷、耐心及長期經營的決心，最棒的是，它的收穫頗豐。
如果你願意打造自已的財務遠景，如果你希望為自已及所愛的人做最佳的打算，情緒上你已經就定位，邁向成功的投資，且目標剩下不到一半的距離。只要開始走上這條穩扎穩打的投資之路，長期下來必能帶給你應得的財富。
Saturday, January 12, 2008
以占卦來追求世俗利益
「孫子兵法」中有說「廟算」的重要性，亦即將帥戰前的預備及推算等工作。因此，事情的成敗，很多時事前的客觀因素已說了十中七八。
只有迷信平庸之仕才將自身前程交給占卦師; 「求神問卦」亦暗示自身信心不大，並無充足事前準備。雖說投資涉及多項因素，有人更說其中涉及「科學」及「藝術」，或是一類「哲學」。
有兩點可以肯定:
1) 投資是十分個人化，沒有一套方法或天書能適合每一個人，更無法適合於不同時代。
2) 因此，每一個人要按自身能力、心理質素、喜好、背景、經驗等因素「付出時間及學習」。依靠一本「大路占卦書」來決定投資策略，實算是「兒戲」。
3) 很多明智的投資決定是始自「觀察」，而「觀察入微」亦是智者所為。
只有迷信平庸之仕才將自身前程交給占卦師; 「求神問卦」亦暗示自身信心不大，並無充足事前準備。雖說投資涉及多項因素，有人更說其中涉及「科學」及「藝術」，或是一類「哲學」。
有兩點可以肯定:
1) 投資是十分個人化，沒有一套方法或天書能適合每一個人，更無法適合於不同時代。
2) 因此，每一個人要按自身能力、心理質素、喜好、背景、經驗等因素「付出時間及學習」。依靠一本「大路占卦書」來決定投資策略，實算是「兒戲」。
3) 很多明智的投資決定是始自「觀察」，而「觀察入微」亦是智者所為。
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Will 3,300 hold?
- We had forecasted in our 28 Nov report that the rebound will wane out as it approached the 3,650 level, which has unfolded as per our forecast.
- The STI has failed to deliver a sustainable rally over the last 3 months since it rebounded off the 3,300 level in Mid-Nov 07. It tested this support level once in Mid-Dec 07 and is again approaching the 3,300 mark.
- As the decline over the last 2 trading days was made on the back of rising volume, we could see a little more downside from here, which would take the STI to our immediate support at 3,300.
- Elliot wave counts suggest the current down wave is segmented into 5 smaller waves. Currently, this puts the STI at the tail end of the current down wave (Wave V), which would take the index below our support level at 3,300 and we could witness the STI slips toward our 2nd support around 2,900 - 3,000.
- But should the 3,300 support level hold up strongly, we could be in store for a strong rebound that would take the STI towards the 1st resistance level at 3,650. However, it would face minor resistance at where the moving averages have converged around 3,500 - 3,550.
- The STI has failed to deliver a sustainable rally over the last 3 months since it rebounded off the 3,300 level in Mid-Nov 07. It tested this support level once in Mid-Dec 07 and is again approaching the 3,300 mark.
- As the decline over the last 2 trading days was made on the back of rising volume, we could see a little more downside from here, which would take the STI to our immediate support at 3,300.
- Elliot wave counts suggest the current down wave is segmented into 5 smaller waves. Currently, this puts the STI at the tail end of the current down wave (Wave V), which would take the index below our support level at 3,300 and we could witness the STI slips toward our 2nd support around 2,900 - 3,000.
- But should the 3,300 support level hold up strongly, we could be in store for a strong rebound that would take the STI towards the 1st resistance level at 3,650. However, it would face minor resistance at where the moving averages have converged around 3,500 - 3,550.
STI & Laggard blue chip stocks
Two of the key support levels for the STI that are quoted in the market place are the 3300 level and the 3000 level. We had highlighted the 3000 level as the worst case downside support level in our 2008 strategy report, stating that it represented 7 year mean price to book valuations.
Yet, the way, we see it, there is very little in charts that suggests that the index could head down to the 3000 level in the near term. The low volatility in banking stocks is one of the reasons why we believe that a near term low is in the making.
Additionally, some of the stocks in the sector are trading near previous lows on low volume. The STI has so far corrected marginally below 3300, yet there is no major sign of panic and the index's performance thus far is encouraging. Even, if the index breaks below the 3300 level, we think there will be secondary supports.
Watch out also for a marginal decline in the HSI towards 26600. If HSI registers a marginal decline and rebounds, then the odds are that an important low could have formed for both the STI and the HSI.
All said, we still maintain the view, that the present decline is a buying opportunity and we highlight some of the laggard index stocks.
1. Capitaland- Stock at $5.95 is trading at a 1 year low and off by 30% from May 2007 high of $8.50. Support at $5.70-5.80
2. City Dev- Another laggard. 2007, high was $17.90. At $12.56, stock has declined by 30%. Support at $12.20-12.20.
3. SGX- 2007 high was $17.20. Prior lows in 3Q07 and 4Q07 were in the $12.00-12.10 range. Stock has declined by 29% at present $12.10 level. Support is at current levels. If the $12.00-12.10 range breaks stock could head towards $11.60.
4. SembCorp Marine- Stock had fallen to a low of $3.82 from a high of $5.70. At current level of $4.23, the stock is showing positive relative strength to the STI over a 5 week period. Support level is at $4.14. Resistance is at $4.52
5.DBS- Peak in 2007 was at $25.00. From that level, it had corrected towards $18.70-19.00, 4 times. This represents an important floor. Stock is currently at $20.13. Volatility has been relatively lower as opposed to 3Q07 and 4Q07.
Recommend accumulating between $19.60-20.00
6. CapitaCommTrust - The stock reached a high at $3.32 in 2007 and since then it has corrected to a low of $2.11. Current price stands at $2.14. DPU for FYO8 is projected at $0.097. This provides a yield of 4.5% as at current $2.14. Next support level is stands at $1.95-2.00 range. Our fundamental price target is at $3.04.
7. CapitaMall Trust- Stock had fallen from a high of $4.32 in June 2007 to a low of $2.96 in August. At present the stock stands at $3.18 and is consolidating between $3.10-3.52. At $3.18, the stock offers a yield of 4.5% based on consensus DPU of $0.146.
8.SIA- Stock has fallen from a high of $20.00 to a recent low of $16.30. This represents an 18.5% decline. At present $16.70, the stock is trading at 1.3x historical P/B ratio. Support is at $15.80-16.00.
Yet, the way, we see it, there is very little in charts that suggests that the index could head down to the 3000 level in the near term. The low volatility in banking stocks is one of the reasons why we believe that a near term low is in the making.
Additionally, some of the stocks in the sector are trading near previous lows on low volume. The STI has so far corrected marginally below 3300, yet there is no major sign of panic and the index's performance thus far is encouraging. Even, if the index breaks below the 3300 level, we think there will be secondary supports.
Watch out also for a marginal decline in the HSI towards 26600. If HSI registers a marginal decline and rebounds, then the odds are that an important low could have formed for both the STI and the HSI.
All said, we still maintain the view, that the present decline is a buying opportunity and we highlight some of the laggard index stocks.
1. Capitaland- Stock at $5.95 is trading at a 1 year low and off by 30% from May 2007 high of $8.50. Support at $5.70-5.80
2. City Dev- Another laggard. 2007, high was $17.90. At $12.56, stock has declined by 30%. Support at $12.20-12.20.
3. SGX- 2007 high was $17.20. Prior lows in 3Q07 and 4Q07 were in the $12.00-12.10 range. Stock has declined by 29% at present $12.10 level. Support is at current levels. If the $12.00-12.10 range breaks stock could head towards $11.60.
4. SembCorp Marine- Stock had fallen to a low of $3.82 from a high of $5.70. At current level of $4.23, the stock is showing positive relative strength to the STI over a 5 week period. Support level is at $4.14. Resistance is at $4.52
5.DBS- Peak in 2007 was at $25.00. From that level, it had corrected towards $18.70-19.00, 4 times. This represents an important floor. Stock is currently at $20.13. Volatility has been relatively lower as opposed to 3Q07 and 4Q07.
Recommend accumulating between $19.60-20.00
6. CapitaCommTrust - The stock reached a high at $3.32 in 2007 and since then it has corrected to a low of $2.11. Current price stands at $2.14. DPU for FYO8 is projected at $0.097. This provides a yield of 4.5% as at current $2.14. Next support level is stands at $1.95-2.00 range. Our fundamental price target is at $3.04.
7. CapitaMall Trust- Stock had fallen from a high of $4.32 in June 2007 to a low of $2.96 in August. At present the stock stands at $3.18 and is consolidating between $3.10-3.52. At $3.18, the stock offers a yield of 4.5% based on consensus DPU of $0.146.
8.SIA- Stock has fallen from a high of $20.00 to a recent low of $16.30. This represents an 18.5% decline. At present $16.70, the stock is trading at 1.3x historical P/B ratio. Support is at $15.80-16.00.
Are Market Trends Effectively Random?
Sun Tzu is an honorific title bestowed upon Sūn Wǔ. Tzu, who lived from 544 to 496 BC, authored The Art of War, an immensely influential ancient Chinese book on military strategy. The book, composed of thirteen chapters, each devoted to one aspect of military warfare, has long been considered one of the definitive works on military strategies. It has also had a huge influence on business tactics. Investors can also benefit from its wisdom. They can particular benefit from the insight provided by one its most often cited phrases: “Every battle is won before it is ever fought.”
On July 19, 2007, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1553. By August 15, it had fallen to 1407, a drop of almost 10 percent in less than a month. The drop was fueled by a flight-to-quality, or what might be called a flight-to-liquidity. Headlines from the financial media reported huge losses in hedge funds as investors fled all risky assets, the kind of assets hedge funds often buy.
The media (and not just the financial media) also commented about how this was an unprecedented event. The following statement is a good example. It was made by Matthew Rothman, global head of quantitative equity strategies for Lehman Holdings Inc. and a University of Chicago Ph.D. After three days of huge losses for equities all around the globe Rothman stated: “Wednesday is the type of day people will remember in quant-land for a very long time. Events that models only predicted would happen once in 10,000 years happened every day for three days.”(Wall Street Journal, “One ‘Quant’ Sees Shakeout For the Ages—’10,000 Years,’ August 11-12, 2007.)
Lehman’s models (as well as the models of many other hedge funds) may have made such a forecast, but all that proved was that the models were wrong. These events have occurred in the past, and they have done so with a fair amount of frequency. In fact, we had a very similar crisis in the summer of 1998, just ten years earlier.
The hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management [LTCM] was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether (former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers). Myron Scholes and Robert Merton who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics sat on its board. LTCM had early successes producing annualized returns of over 40 percent in its first years. Then, in 1998, it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months and became the most popular example of the risk that exists in the hedge fund industry. In early 2000, the fund folded. LTCM, failed because its models told them the same thing that Rothman’s model had told him. As Spanish philosopher Santayana warned: “Those that cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.”
The Historical Evidence
Professor Eugene Fama (the thesis advisor to LTCM’s Myron Scholes at the University of Chicago) studied the historical distribution of stock returns. Here is what Fama found: “If the population of price changes is strictly normal, on the average for any stock…an observation that is more than five standard deviations from the mean should be observed about once every 7,000 years. In fact such observations seem to occur about once every three or four years.” (Roger Lowenstein, When Genius Failed, Random House (1st edition, September 2000), p.71.) That is a long way from once every 10,000 years.
Consider also the following:
• From 1926–2006, twenty-three out of the eighty-one years produced negative returns. In nine of those years the losses were greater than 10 percent. In five of the years the losses exceeded 20 percent. In two of the years the losses exceeded 30 percent. And in one year the loss exceeded 40 percent.
• During the same period, out of 324 quarters, there were twenty-seven in which losses exceeded 10 percent. There were also seven quarters when losses exceeded 20 percent. And there were two quarters when losses exceeded 30 percent.
What the data is telling us is that stocks are risky assets. And the risks show up fairly frequently. The data also tells us that severe losses are fairly common. In fact, the risk of severe losses is why stocks have provided higher returns historically than have bonds. On average, investors are risk averse. To entice them to take the risks of equity investing, stocks must be priced to provide high expected returns. And it is not a question of if the risks will show up. The only questions (to which no one has the answers) are when the risks will show up, how sharp the declines will be and when they will end.
The Anatomy of a “Crisis”
Some bear markets are caused by specific events such as what occurred on September 11, 2001 or the oil crisis of 1973. These are random events that cannot be forecasted. But others follow a fairly consistent pattern that goes as follows. When economic times are good investors become more willing to take risks. Prices begin to rise. The longer the times remain good, the more confident investors become, and the more risk they become willing to take. Eventually stocks may even become “priced for perfection.” Eventually the risks do show up. Losses appear, credit tightens, margin calls have to be met, and a flight-to-quality ensues. We might say that “the tipping point” was reached. Prices don’t just fall, they often collapse as a vicious cycle develops as selling begets more selling. Some investors are forced to sell to meet margin calls and others simply panic.
When Risks Show Up
It is important to note that during bear markets all risky assets have a strong tendency to become highly correlated. Thus, while global diversification across equity asset classes with low correlation is the prudent strategy because it reduces risk over the long term, during crises this benefit “takes a holiday.” The only safe haven during such periods is fixed income investments of the highest quality (for example, Treasuries, government agency securities). Riskier fixed income assets such as junk bonds and emerging market bonds also suffer from flights-to-quality and liquidity. This is why the prudent strategy is to limit fixed income holdings to securities of the highest credit quality.
It is also important to note that the risks of hedge funds, which supposedly offer the benefit of low correlation, tend to rise during crises. The reason is that many hedge funds attempt to achieve high returns by investing in risky and illiquid assets. Thus, just when you need them to provide their so-called hedge, instead what happens is the risk appears. This is exactly what happened in the summer of 1998, with an encore performance in the summer of 2007. This is just one of the many reasons why investors should avoid hedge funds. (There are many others including their failure to deliver on their “promise” of greater risk-adjusted returns.)
These crises also show the why investors should avoid strategies that employ leverage. Leverage works well until risk shows up. Then the use of leverage often leads to the inability to wait out a bear market because margin calls must be met. Leverage has been the factor leading to the demise of many investment strategies. The perfect example is LTCM. It went belly up despite the fact that many of its trades proved to be correct if only it could have held on to its positions. Unfortunately, margin calls had to be met and LTCM was forced to liquidate. Let’s now turn to the issue of whether investors can successfully avoid the inevitable periods of sharp losses by timing the market?
Timing the Market
The evidence on efforts to successfully time the market is compelling. For example, one study of one hundred large pension funds and their experience with market timing found that while they all had engaged in at least some market timing, not a single one had improved its rate of return as a result.
Let’s look at some evidence on why market timers get such poor results. Keep in mind that when you try to time the market you have to be right not just once, but twice. You have to sell at the right time and you also have to get back in at the right time. We saw earlier that of the out of 324 quarters from 1926 through 2006 there were twenty-seven in which losses exceeded 10 percent. Out of those twenty-seven quarters, sixteen were followed by quarters when the S&P 500 Index rose at least 5 percent. There was also seven quarters when it rose at least 10 percent, four when it rose at least 20 percent, three when it rose at least 30 percent and two when it rose at least 80 percent. Yes, 80 percent. Thus, following quarters when the market fell at least 10 percent, the next quarter it rose at least 5 percent almost 60 percent of the time.
There were also three other quarters when the market rose, though less than 5 percent. Thus, over 70 percent of the time after experiencing a quarter of a sharp decline, the market actually rose. Evidence such as this is why legendary investor Peter Lynch stated: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”(Worth, September 1995). And Warren Buffet’s favorite time frame for holding a stock is forever.
If bear markets cannot be anticipated, what is the prudent strategy?
The Winner’s Game
Napoleon, perhaps history’s greatest general stated: “Most battles are won or lost [in the preparation stage] long before the first shot is fired.” For investors the battle is also won in the planning stage. Successful investors know both that bear markets will happen and that they cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. Thus, they build bear markets into their plans. They begin by determining their ability, willingness, and need to take risk. They make sure that their asset allocation does not cause them to take so much risk that when a bear market inevitably shows up they might sell in a panic. They also make sure that they don’t take so much risk that they lose sleep when emotions caused by bear markets run high.
Summary
Life is just too short for individuals to spend time worrying about their portfolio. If investors make sure that they don’t take too much risk, they will be able to rebalance (buy more of the very investments that have performed the worst) in the face of large losses. Some investors let emotions drive their decisions and they end up buying high and selling low. On the other hand, prudent investors who stay disciplined and rebalance, buying low and selling high, clearly adhere to a superior strategy.
Stocks are risky investments, no matter the time horizon. Smart investors recognize that. They also know that they cannot predict when the bear [market] will emerge from its hibernation or how large the losses will be. They know that just as battles are won in the planning stage, the winning investment strategy is to have a well-developed investment plan in the form of an investment policy statement. However, they also know that having such a plan is only a necessary condition for investment success. The sufficient condition is that they must have the discipline to stick to the plan.
Successful investors know that they must act like a postage stamp. The postage stamp does only one thing, but it does it exceedingly well. It adheres to its package until it reaches its destination. To be successful, investors must have the discipline to avoid having their well-developed plan end up in the trash heap of emotions.
In closing, the next time the emotions caused by a bear market tempt you to sell you should consider the following statement from Stephen Gould. Gould, who died in May 2002, was professor of zoology and geology at Harvard University. He said, “Probably more intellectual energy has been invested in discovering (and exploiting) trends in the stock market than in any other subject—for the obvious reason that stakes are so high, as measured in the currency of our culture.
The fact that no one has ever come close to finding a consistent way to beat the system — despite intense efforts by some of the smartest people in the world — probably indicates that such causal trends do not exist, and that sequences are effectively random.”
On July 19, 2007, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1553. By August 15, it had fallen to 1407, a drop of almost 10 percent in less than a month. The drop was fueled by a flight-to-quality, or what might be called a flight-to-liquidity. Headlines from the financial media reported huge losses in hedge funds as investors fled all risky assets, the kind of assets hedge funds often buy.
The media (and not just the financial media) also commented about how this was an unprecedented event. The following statement is a good example. It was made by Matthew Rothman, global head of quantitative equity strategies for Lehman Holdings Inc. and a University of Chicago Ph.D. After three days of huge losses for equities all around the globe Rothman stated: “Wednesday is the type of day people will remember in quant-land for a very long time. Events that models only predicted would happen once in 10,000 years happened every day for three days.”(Wall Street Journal, “One ‘Quant’ Sees Shakeout For the Ages—’10,000 Years,’ August 11-12, 2007.)
Lehman’s models (as well as the models of many other hedge funds) may have made such a forecast, but all that proved was that the models were wrong. These events have occurred in the past, and they have done so with a fair amount of frequency. In fact, we had a very similar crisis in the summer of 1998, just ten years earlier.
The hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management [LTCM] was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether (former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers). Myron Scholes and Robert Merton who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics sat on its board. LTCM had early successes producing annualized returns of over 40 percent in its first years. Then, in 1998, it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months and became the most popular example of the risk that exists in the hedge fund industry. In early 2000, the fund folded. LTCM, failed because its models told them the same thing that Rothman’s model had told him. As Spanish philosopher Santayana warned: “Those that cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.”
The Historical Evidence
Professor Eugene Fama (the thesis advisor to LTCM’s Myron Scholes at the University of Chicago) studied the historical distribution of stock returns. Here is what Fama found: “If the population of price changes is strictly normal, on the average for any stock…an observation that is more than five standard deviations from the mean should be observed about once every 7,000 years. In fact such observations seem to occur about once every three or four years.” (Roger Lowenstein, When Genius Failed, Random House (1st edition, September 2000), p.71.) That is a long way from once every 10,000 years.
Consider also the following:
• From 1926–2006, twenty-three out of the eighty-one years produced negative returns. In nine of those years the losses were greater than 10 percent. In five of the years the losses exceeded 20 percent. In two of the years the losses exceeded 30 percent. And in one year the loss exceeded 40 percent.
• During the same period, out of 324 quarters, there were twenty-seven in which losses exceeded 10 percent. There were also seven quarters when losses exceeded 20 percent. And there were two quarters when losses exceeded 30 percent.
What the data is telling us is that stocks are risky assets. And the risks show up fairly frequently. The data also tells us that severe losses are fairly common. In fact, the risk of severe losses is why stocks have provided higher returns historically than have bonds. On average, investors are risk averse. To entice them to take the risks of equity investing, stocks must be priced to provide high expected returns. And it is not a question of if the risks will show up. The only questions (to which no one has the answers) are when the risks will show up, how sharp the declines will be and when they will end.
The Anatomy of a “Crisis”
Some bear markets are caused by specific events such as what occurred on September 11, 2001 or the oil crisis of 1973. These are random events that cannot be forecasted. But others follow a fairly consistent pattern that goes as follows. When economic times are good investors become more willing to take risks. Prices begin to rise. The longer the times remain good, the more confident investors become, and the more risk they become willing to take. Eventually stocks may even become “priced for perfection.” Eventually the risks do show up. Losses appear, credit tightens, margin calls have to be met, and a flight-to-quality ensues. We might say that “the tipping point” was reached. Prices don’t just fall, they often collapse as a vicious cycle develops as selling begets more selling. Some investors are forced to sell to meet margin calls and others simply panic.
When Risks Show Up
It is important to note that during bear markets all risky assets have a strong tendency to become highly correlated. Thus, while global diversification across equity asset classes with low correlation is the prudent strategy because it reduces risk over the long term, during crises this benefit “takes a holiday.” The only safe haven during such periods is fixed income investments of the highest quality (for example, Treasuries, government agency securities). Riskier fixed income assets such as junk bonds and emerging market bonds also suffer from flights-to-quality and liquidity. This is why the prudent strategy is to limit fixed income holdings to securities of the highest credit quality.
It is also important to note that the risks of hedge funds, which supposedly offer the benefit of low correlation, tend to rise during crises. The reason is that many hedge funds attempt to achieve high returns by investing in risky and illiquid assets. Thus, just when you need them to provide their so-called hedge, instead what happens is the risk appears. This is exactly what happened in the summer of 1998, with an encore performance in the summer of 2007. This is just one of the many reasons why investors should avoid hedge funds. (There are many others including their failure to deliver on their “promise” of greater risk-adjusted returns.)
These crises also show the why investors should avoid strategies that employ leverage. Leverage works well until risk shows up. Then the use of leverage often leads to the inability to wait out a bear market because margin calls must be met. Leverage has been the factor leading to the demise of many investment strategies. The perfect example is LTCM. It went belly up despite the fact that many of its trades proved to be correct if only it could have held on to its positions. Unfortunately, margin calls had to be met and LTCM was forced to liquidate. Let’s now turn to the issue of whether investors can successfully avoid the inevitable periods of sharp losses by timing the market?
Timing the Market
The evidence on efforts to successfully time the market is compelling. For example, one study of one hundred large pension funds and their experience with market timing found that while they all had engaged in at least some market timing, not a single one had improved its rate of return as a result.
Let’s look at some evidence on why market timers get such poor results. Keep in mind that when you try to time the market you have to be right not just once, but twice. You have to sell at the right time and you also have to get back in at the right time. We saw earlier that of the out of 324 quarters from 1926 through 2006 there were twenty-seven in which losses exceeded 10 percent. Out of those twenty-seven quarters, sixteen were followed by quarters when the S&P 500 Index rose at least 5 percent. There was also seven quarters when it rose at least 10 percent, four when it rose at least 20 percent, three when it rose at least 30 percent and two when it rose at least 80 percent. Yes, 80 percent. Thus, following quarters when the market fell at least 10 percent, the next quarter it rose at least 5 percent almost 60 percent of the time.
There were also three other quarters when the market rose, though less than 5 percent. Thus, over 70 percent of the time after experiencing a quarter of a sharp decline, the market actually rose. Evidence such as this is why legendary investor Peter Lynch stated: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”(Worth, September 1995). And Warren Buffet’s favorite time frame for holding a stock is forever.
If bear markets cannot be anticipated, what is the prudent strategy?
The Winner’s Game
Napoleon, perhaps history’s greatest general stated: “Most battles are won or lost [in the preparation stage] long before the first shot is fired.” For investors the battle is also won in the planning stage. Successful investors know both that bear markets will happen and that they cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. Thus, they build bear markets into their plans. They begin by determining their ability, willingness, and need to take risk. They make sure that their asset allocation does not cause them to take so much risk that when a bear market inevitably shows up they might sell in a panic. They also make sure that they don’t take so much risk that they lose sleep when emotions caused by bear markets run high.
Summary
Life is just too short for individuals to spend time worrying about their portfolio. If investors make sure that they don’t take too much risk, they will be able to rebalance (buy more of the very investments that have performed the worst) in the face of large losses. Some investors let emotions drive their decisions and they end up buying high and selling low. On the other hand, prudent investors who stay disciplined and rebalance, buying low and selling high, clearly adhere to a superior strategy.
Stocks are risky investments, no matter the time horizon. Smart investors recognize that. They also know that they cannot predict when the bear [market] will emerge from its hibernation or how large the losses will be. They know that just as battles are won in the planning stage, the winning investment strategy is to have a well-developed investment plan in the form of an investment policy statement. However, they also know that having such a plan is only a necessary condition for investment success. The sufficient condition is that they must have the discipline to stick to the plan.
Successful investors know that they must act like a postage stamp. The postage stamp does only one thing, but it does it exceedingly well. It adheres to its package until it reaches its destination. To be successful, investors must have the discipline to avoid having their well-developed plan end up in the trash heap of emotions.
In closing, the next time the emotions caused by a bear market tempt you to sell you should consider the following statement from Stephen Gould. Gould, who died in May 2002, was professor of zoology and geology at Harvard University. He said, “Probably more intellectual energy has been invested in discovering (and exploiting) trends in the stock market than in any other subject—for the obvious reason that stakes are so high, as measured in the currency of our culture.
The fact that no one has ever come close to finding a consistent way to beat the system — despite intense efforts by some of the smartest people in the world — probably indicates that such causal trends do not exist, and that sequences are effectively random.”
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Is 1970's-style stagflation returning?
Inflation is rising and the economy is decelerating, but those problems don’t add up to that nasty combination of stagnant growth and out-of-control price increases. Yet.
Stagflation is coming. Lock up your portfolio. We could be on our way to a replay of the 1970s.
That’s the worry among an increasing number of investors as we head into 2008. It’s certainly possible for the year ahead, but it’s unlikely. In this column, I’ll look at what would have to go wrong for stagflation to return and how to position a portfolio if you think stagflation is more of a danger than I do.
The ’70s have a lot to answer for:
"Airport," "Airport 1975," "Airport ‘77" and "Airport ‘79."
The Village People and "YMCA."
The breakup of the Beatles.
President Jimmy Carter and the killer rabbit.
Sonny Bono’s bell bottoms.
And stagflation, that lethal brew of stagnant growth and high inflation.
In the United States, headline inflation started off the decade at 5.5% in 1970, peaked at 12.2% in 1974 and again at 13.3% in 1979, and didn’t drop below 4% until 1982. For the ’70s as a whole, inflation averaged 7.4% annually. In comparison, inflation in the 1960s averaged 2.5% annually.
Real economic growth tumbled. Subtracting for inflation, the economy grew by just 3.27% on average from 1970 to 1979, quite a drop from the 4.44% average annual growth in real gross domestic product recorded from 1960 to 1969. And in two years during the 1970s, after subtracting for inflation, the economy actually declined in size — by 0.5% in 1974 and 0.2% in 1975.
As you might expect, the 1970s weren’t a great time for investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($INX) returned a compound annual 5.9% from 1970 to 1979. With inflation running at an annual 7.4%, an investor in the stock market was losing ground every year to inflation. Bond investors had it even worse: The compound annual return on a long-term U.S. Treasury bond for the decade was just 4.8%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the inflation rate.
So you can understand why the prospect of stagflation in 2008 would send shivers up investors’ spines. How likely is that scenario? Let me break down stagflation into its two parts, the "stag" and the "flation." I’ll deal with "flation" first.
The ‘flation’ part of the equation
Is high inflation coming back? Yes.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the two most important inflation fighters in the world, are worried that inflation is too high. Headline inflation, the number the European Central Bank watches, was 3.1% in November in Europe, way above the bank’s 2% limit. In the United States, headline inflation was 4.3% in November.
The Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation — headline inflation minus any increases in volatile food and energy prices — was a lower 2.3%. (Energy prices were up 21% in the month, so leaving them out of the inflation calculation helped.) But even that was above the Fed’s comfort zone.
For the "flation" part of stagflation to set in, those rates have to go higher and create the expectation that inflation is headed out of control.
Unfortunately, higher inflation is coming from every direction you care to look. Normally, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would move to stomp out inflation by raising interest rates. Now, thanks to a weakening U.S. economy and turmoil in the debt markets, the Fed is lowering interest rates instead, and both banks are flooding the financial markets with short-term cash.
China, Russia and other emerging-market economies determined to keep their currencies from gaining against the dollar are creating money to buy dollars, inflating their own currencies, and that money is fueling booms in stock and real-estate markets. Inflation hit 6.9% in China in November, for example. And these countries are exporting some of their inflation in the form of higher prices for developed-world customers such as Wal-Mart Stores.
Demand from these fast-growing economies for raw materials is driving up the price of coal, iron ore, corn, wheat, oil — just about every commodity you can name. A falling U.S. dollar is driving up the cost of everything the country imports, from oil to children’s toys.
Normally, the Federal Reserve could count on a slowing economy to take a bit of wind out of inflation’s sails. But many of the current causes of inflation aren’t linked to the U.S. economy. We could get inflation and slower growth — the definition of stagflation.
Stagflation is coming. Lock up your portfolio. We could be on our way to a replay of the 1970s.
That’s the worry among an increasing number of investors as we head into 2008. It’s certainly possible for the year ahead, but it’s unlikely. In this column, I’ll look at what would have to go wrong for stagflation to return and how to position a portfolio if you think stagflation is more of a danger than I do.
The ’70s have a lot to answer for:
"Airport," "Airport 1975," "Airport ‘77" and "Airport ‘79."
The Village People and "YMCA."
The breakup of the Beatles.
President Jimmy Carter and the killer rabbit.
Sonny Bono’s bell bottoms.
And stagflation, that lethal brew of stagnant growth and high inflation.
In the United States, headline inflation started off the decade at 5.5% in 1970, peaked at 12.2% in 1974 and again at 13.3% in 1979, and didn’t drop below 4% until 1982. For the ’70s as a whole, inflation averaged 7.4% annually. In comparison, inflation in the 1960s averaged 2.5% annually.
Real economic growth tumbled. Subtracting for inflation, the economy grew by just 3.27% on average from 1970 to 1979, quite a drop from the 4.44% average annual growth in real gross domestic product recorded from 1960 to 1969. And in two years during the 1970s, after subtracting for inflation, the economy actually declined in size — by 0.5% in 1974 and 0.2% in 1975.
As you might expect, the 1970s weren’t a great time for investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($INX) returned a compound annual 5.9% from 1970 to 1979. With inflation running at an annual 7.4%, an investor in the stock market was losing ground every year to inflation. Bond investors had it even worse: The compound annual return on a long-term U.S. Treasury bond for the decade was just 4.8%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the inflation rate.
So you can understand why the prospect of stagflation in 2008 would send shivers up investors’ spines. How likely is that scenario? Let me break down stagflation into its two parts, the "stag" and the "flation." I’ll deal with "flation" first.
The ‘flation’ part of the equation
Is high inflation coming back? Yes.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the two most important inflation fighters in the world, are worried that inflation is too high. Headline inflation, the number the European Central Bank watches, was 3.1% in November in Europe, way above the bank’s 2% limit. In the United States, headline inflation was 4.3% in November.
The Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation — headline inflation minus any increases in volatile food and energy prices — was a lower 2.3%. (Energy prices were up 21% in the month, so leaving them out of the inflation calculation helped.) But even that was above the Fed’s comfort zone.
For the "flation" part of stagflation to set in, those rates have to go higher and create the expectation that inflation is headed out of control.
Unfortunately, higher inflation is coming from every direction you care to look. Normally, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would move to stomp out inflation by raising interest rates. Now, thanks to a weakening U.S. economy and turmoil in the debt markets, the Fed is lowering interest rates instead, and both banks are flooding the financial markets with short-term cash.
China, Russia and other emerging-market economies determined to keep their currencies from gaining against the dollar are creating money to buy dollars, inflating their own currencies, and that money is fueling booms in stock and real-estate markets. Inflation hit 6.9% in China in November, for example. And these countries are exporting some of their inflation in the form of higher prices for developed-world customers such as Wal-Mart Stores.
Demand from these fast-growing economies for raw materials is driving up the price of coal, iron ore, corn, wheat, oil — just about every commodity you can name. A falling U.S. dollar is driving up the cost of everything the country imports, from oil to children’s toys.
Normally, the Federal Reserve could count on a slowing economy to take a bit of wind out of inflation’s sails. But many of the current causes of inflation aren’t linked to the U.S. economy. We could get inflation and slower growth — the definition of stagflation.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Singapore Market
This report was compiled by analyst Narjeeb Jarhom for AMFraser Securities.
SINGAPORE MARKET
Market rallies likely to be short-lived in the run-up to the earnings reporting season from month-end till February with STI (3460 at noon today) capped at 3550-3600 and support around 3300-3350.
After seeing unsustainable rallies for most of the 4th quarter, investor psychology is now more acceptable of a downward trending or sideways drifting market in the coming few weeks. Unless of course hedge and sovereign fund managers make a beeline for equities in the next few days to reverse the downbeat sentiments and bring back the bullish spirits.But even then, many investors and traders are likely to capitalise on rallies to trim positions and to cut losses.
Fund managers too are unlikely to go all out to lift the new STI being launched next week to the 3600 resistance area let alone the 3800-3900 peaks of early October anytime soon, certainly not in this quarter where confidence remains shaky amid the unsettling US housing sector and the fast slowing US economy.
With the Singapore economy having slowed down to a 6% annual growth rate in 4q07 year-on-year from 9% in 3q07, corporate earnings growth could have also started to slow last quarter. Chances of a quick pick up in earnings growth this current quarter are not good and this will impact stock prices which will be influenced by institutional perception of earnings potential in 2008.
The 4q and full year 2007 reports may begin to be discounted before they kick in at end-January but the extent of market falls are still hard to quantify depending on liquidity flows in a weak market and Fed’s moves on interest rates at its Jan 29-30 FOMC meeting.Nevertheless, US and local stocks are not expected to plunge to the 25500-27000 support on the Dow Jones and the STI to below the current 3300 support but if they do the Fed may have to be more aggressive in its rate cuts perhaps by 50bp to 3.75%.That possibility hinges on 4q07 US GDP growth especially if it falls below 1%.
A rally may develop ahead of the FOMC meeting in anticipation of a bold Fed funds rate cut in which case we may see the Dow back to its 35000-37000 resistance and the STI to 3550-3600.What happens after the FOMC meeting is more critical to evaluate even at this early stage especially if investors rightly or wrongly perceive that the series of rate cuts has not had much positive impact on US economy and earnings growth.
This could set the stage for a more volatile February and thus investors’ continued cautious approach is called for.We advise cautious buying of blue chips in the leading sectors ie banks, properties, off shore conglomerates and telecoms on rocky market days for traders with a 3-5 weeks’ view and close monitoring of market conditions to see any major shift of investor sentiment for the worse taking place.
Traders should be satisfied with a 5 to 10% trading gains and avoid getting trapped by buying aggressively during rallies as there are still no definitive signs that the closer gaps between correction phases seen in the second half of 2007 are about to end now.We have seen the STI plunging nearly 20% in July-August and again by 15% in November.
After a short 2 week really at end-Nov into early Dec from 3306 to 3622, the index again fell this time by 9% back to 3300 on Dec 18.Although it has recovered to nearly 3500 (3491 on Dec 27 and 3482 on Dec 31) it is only up 16.6% yoy, not a particularly spectacular performance for a year that saw new monthly peaks on the STI for 8 out of 12 months with a 31% year to date gain at the highest point of 3906 on Oct 10 against 2986 at end-2006.The near record trading range of about 1000 points from lows of 2932/2962 in early March and mid-August to 3906 has the unfavourable effect of increasing volatility on the downside.
The worst was in August from the mid-July 3689 high to an intra-day low of 2962 on Aug 17, down 19.7%:Just short of the above 20% mark which conventional wisdom suggests to signal the start of a bear market.Having ended 2007 at 3482, a 20% fall would take the STI to 2787, which is not conceivable at this stage but market players are used to 10-15% corrections and the strategy of buying during sharp downturns is likely to continue this year.A 10% fall to around 3150 is also hard to accept at this stage ahead of the month-end FOMC meeting, the earnings season, Chinese New Year festivities and the mid-February Budget speech where the government is likely to introduce measures to stem the rising cost of living and perhaps other market friendly moves in the unlikely event of a deteriorating external and local corporate environment.
Thus days of market falls in the next few weeks towards 3300-3350 should offer good trading chances barring a sharp Wall Street correction as the market can expect at least a short-lived run-up spanning 2-3 weeks in late January into February.It is still not advisable to chase prices that have run up too fast to the 3600 level.
Traders should wait for the next buying opportunity that should emerge again not long after the Budget speech which notoriously in the past had seen some sharp reversals not long after the statement.Last year about 2 weeks after the Budget, the STI peaked at 3316 on Feb 26 and in a sudden one-week plunge, it landed at 2932 on March 5, down 11.6%. Although it is too early to gauge 2q08 performance, it is quite possible that the STI could reach a major bottom for the year during this periodwhich may well again be below 3000. It may repeat last year’s double bottom behaviour again this year but the timing may differ.
Last year it was at 2932 in March and 2962 in August. If the STI could plunge from nearly 3700 to briefly below 3000, it is best that traders brace themselves for another break of 3000 perhaps as early as late Feb-early March or sometime in second quarter.
The 3650-3700 which houses the then mid-July record high is likely to be a strong resistance, which may not be tested until the second half. But even then only if the US escapes a recession and the Singapore economy does not slow down to the low end of the official 4.5-6.5% growth rate for 2008, which will unfavourably impact earnings growth to single digit range from current forecasts of 12 to 15-16%.On a technical note, the long term STI uptrend is still intact even if it revisits the 3000 psychological level.
The critical support at 2006 high of 2666, which is close to the long-standing 2583 high in 2000 however must not be tested as it could spark a new bear market. The behaviour of the monthly MACD and RSI however are also not that inspiring.Nevertheless, a bear market scenario is unlikely to emerge in next few months but investors should not ignore vital signs of a worsening US economic situation this year as any deep recession there could lead to an easy break of STI 3000 notwithstanding the Asian growth story.
Investors should bear in mind of the still close correlation of the local market to that of Wall Street.
With the STI among the lowest regional indices’ year-on year gainers, up 16% in line with the Dow’s modest 6% gain compared to over 40% for the Hang Seng Index and the 25-35% by other Asian ex-Japan markets, excluding China and India which remain in a class of heir own.
Already we have seen the local economy slowing down sharply in 4q07 in line with the weak US economy.
SINGAPORE MARKET
Market rallies likely to be short-lived in the run-up to the earnings reporting season from month-end till February with STI (3460 at noon today) capped at 3550-3600 and support around 3300-3350.
After seeing unsustainable rallies for most of the 4th quarter, investor psychology is now more acceptable of a downward trending or sideways drifting market in the coming few weeks. Unless of course hedge and sovereign fund managers make a beeline for equities in the next few days to reverse the downbeat sentiments and bring back the bullish spirits.But even then, many investors and traders are likely to capitalise on rallies to trim positions and to cut losses.
Fund managers too are unlikely to go all out to lift the new STI being launched next week to the 3600 resistance area let alone the 3800-3900 peaks of early October anytime soon, certainly not in this quarter where confidence remains shaky amid the unsettling US housing sector and the fast slowing US economy.
With the Singapore economy having slowed down to a 6% annual growth rate in 4q07 year-on-year from 9% in 3q07, corporate earnings growth could have also started to slow last quarter. Chances of a quick pick up in earnings growth this current quarter are not good and this will impact stock prices which will be influenced by institutional perception of earnings potential in 2008.
The 4q and full year 2007 reports may begin to be discounted before they kick in at end-January but the extent of market falls are still hard to quantify depending on liquidity flows in a weak market and Fed’s moves on interest rates at its Jan 29-30 FOMC meeting.Nevertheless, US and local stocks are not expected to plunge to the 25500-27000 support on the Dow Jones and the STI to below the current 3300 support but if they do the Fed may have to be more aggressive in its rate cuts perhaps by 50bp to 3.75%.That possibility hinges on 4q07 US GDP growth especially if it falls below 1%.
A rally may develop ahead of the FOMC meeting in anticipation of a bold Fed funds rate cut in which case we may see the Dow back to its 35000-37000 resistance and the STI to 3550-3600.What happens after the FOMC meeting is more critical to evaluate even at this early stage especially if investors rightly or wrongly perceive that the series of rate cuts has not had much positive impact on US economy and earnings growth.
This could set the stage for a more volatile February and thus investors’ continued cautious approach is called for.We advise cautious buying of blue chips in the leading sectors ie banks, properties, off shore conglomerates and telecoms on rocky market days for traders with a 3-5 weeks’ view and close monitoring of market conditions to see any major shift of investor sentiment for the worse taking place.
Traders should be satisfied with a 5 to 10% trading gains and avoid getting trapped by buying aggressively during rallies as there are still no definitive signs that the closer gaps between correction phases seen in the second half of 2007 are about to end now.We have seen the STI plunging nearly 20% in July-August and again by 15% in November.
After a short 2 week really at end-Nov into early Dec from 3306 to 3622, the index again fell this time by 9% back to 3300 on Dec 18.Although it has recovered to nearly 3500 (3491 on Dec 27 and 3482 on Dec 31) it is only up 16.6% yoy, not a particularly spectacular performance for a year that saw new monthly peaks on the STI for 8 out of 12 months with a 31% year to date gain at the highest point of 3906 on Oct 10 against 2986 at end-2006.The near record trading range of about 1000 points from lows of 2932/2962 in early March and mid-August to 3906 has the unfavourable effect of increasing volatility on the downside.
The worst was in August from the mid-July 3689 high to an intra-day low of 2962 on Aug 17, down 19.7%:Just short of the above 20% mark which conventional wisdom suggests to signal the start of a bear market.Having ended 2007 at 3482, a 20% fall would take the STI to 2787, which is not conceivable at this stage but market players are used to 10-15% corrections and the strategy of buying during sharp downturns is likely to continue this year.A 10% fall to around 3150 is also hard to accept at this stage ahead of the month-end FOMC meeting, the earnings season, Chinese New Year festivities and the mid-February Budget speech where the government is likely to introduce measures to stem the rising cost of living and perhaps other market friendly moves in the unlikely event of a deteriorating external and local corporate environment.
Thus days of market falls in the next few weeks towards 3300-3350 should offer good trading chances barring a sharp Wall Street correction as the market can expect at least a short-lived run-up spanning 2-3 weeks in late January into February.It is still not advisable to chase prices that have run up too fast to the 3600 level.
Traders should wait for the next buying opportunity that should emerge again not long after the Budget speech which notoriously in the past had seen some sharp reversals not long after the statement.Last year about 2 weeks after the Budget, the STI peaked at 3316 on Feb 26 and in a sudden one-week plunge, it landed at 2932 on March 5, down 11.6%. Although it is too early to gauge 2q08 performance, it is quite possible that the STI could reach a major bottom for the year during this periodwhich may well again be below 3000. It may repeat last year’s double bottom behaviour again this year but the timing may differ.
Last year it was at 2932 in March and 2962 in August. If the STI could plunge from nearly 3700 to briefly below 3000, it is best that traders brace themselves for another break of 3000 perhaps as early as late Feb-early March or sometime in second quarter.
The 3650-3700 which houses the then mid-July record high is likely to be a strong resistance, which may not be tested until the second half. But even then only if the US escapes a recession and the Singapore economy does not slow down to the low end of the official 4.5-6.5% growth rate for 2008, which will unfavourably impact earnings growth to single digit range from current forecasts of 12 to 15-16%.On a technical note, the long term STI uptrend is still intact even if it revisits the 3000 psychological level.
The critical support at 2006 high of 2666, which is close to the long-standing 2583 high in 2000 however must not be tested as it could spark a new bear market. The behaviour of the monthly MACD and RSI however are also not that inspiring.Nevertheless, a bear market scenario is unlikely to emerge in next few months but investors should not ignore vital signs of a worsening US economic situation this year as any deep recession there could lead to an easy break of STI 3000 notwithstanding the Asian growth story.
Investors should bear in mind of the still close correlation of the local market to that of Wall Street.
With the STI among the lowest regional indices’ year-on year gainers, up 16% in line with the Dow’s modest 6% gain compared to over 40% for the Hang Seng Index and the 25-35% by other Asian ex-Japan markets, excluding China and India which remain in a class of heir own.
Already we have seen the local economy slowing down sharply in 4q07 in line with the weak US economy.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Top picks for the year
THERE are dark clouds on the horizon and things will probably get bumpy this year, but financial experts remain bullish about Asian stock markets.
IPP Financial Advisers investment director Albert Lam said: 'We believe the foundation of the bull market remains intact... We expect market volatility to continue to dominate in the first half of the year. Liquidity will flow into the market again once the volatility picture clears up towards the second half.'
The clouds have become obvious to most observers by now: a possible economic slowdown in the United States, a weak greenback, high oil prices and continued US sub-prime problems that could affect global credit markets.
That last factor is highly significant as banks and securities firms across the world have announced more than US$40 billion (S$57.4 billion) in losses from write-downs related to US sub-prime or highly risky home loans, said Mr Vasu Menon, OCBC Bank's vice-president of group wealth management.
Looking back at 2007
EMERGING markets such as India and China took top spots last year, with returns of 54.9 per cent and 48 per cent respectively.
And despite a turbulent second half, Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) rose by 16.6 per cent.
Online unit trust distributor Fundsupermart research manager Mah Ching Cheng said global equities have enjoyed strong returns over the past three years. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index has risen 102.5 per cent over that period, while the MSCI World Equity Index went up 36.6 per cent from Dec 30, 2003 to Dec 21 last year.
Hot investment themes in 2008
Asian equities
AMONG equity markets, Asia continues to be favoured by financial experts as the region is likely to outperform in terms of growth.
After all, more than half of the world's population lives in the region, said Mr Lam.
'Per capita incomes that continue to improve in emerging countries, coupled with younger and better-trained workforces, have contributed to the region's consumption ability,' he said.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, developing Asian economies are expected to grow 8.8 per cent this year, against 2.2 per cent for developed markets.
Fundsupermart has picked Thailand as its favourite Asia ex-Japan market. It cites the improvement in Thailand's expected economic growth, with consumer confidence and spending tipped to pick up once the political situation stabilises following last month's elections.
Emerging markets
FOR Ms Mah, what she likes is the healthy earnings growth for emerging market equities, of which about half are in developing Asia.
She is also bullish about equities in India and China, even though they shot up last year. This is because the two are still among the world's fastest-growing economies and their intra-Asia exports should continue to rise steadily. This could provide support for their equity markets, added Ms Mah.
Mr Lam also likes emerging markets. Their rapid growth has boosted their stock markets and resulted in greater liquidity.
'With better liquidity, demand for these securities will also increase. Key industries have been privatised and/or deregulated,' he said. 'Given this, and appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, emerging markets are tipped to continue their robust growth.'
Technology sector
ALL things tech seem to offer considerable potential. Ms Mah notes that the sector's earnings growth this year is expected to hit the high teens.
The US Semiconductor Industry Association expects worldwide chip sales to post an annual growth rate of 7.7 per cent over the next two years. Sales are expected to hit US$276.9 billion this year, compared with projected sales of US$257.1 billion for last year.
The association said a broader range of consumer products and the emergence of large new consumer markets in Asia, Eastern Europe and South America would be the principal drivers of industry growth in the years ahead.
Commodities
OCBC's Mr Menon is keen on commodities, especially oil and precious metals such as gold, which stand to benefit from supply shortfalls and healthy demand.
Singapore stocks
FOLLOWING the sell-down in recent months, the Singapore market appears 'cheap', said Mr Terence Wong, the head of research for retail at DMG & Partners Securities.
He expects the STI to trade up to 3,903 points this year. It closed at 3,437.79 points on Friday.
His top 10 picks for the year: Armstrong Industrial Corp, ASL Marine, China Farm Equipment, China Sports International, Courage Marine Group, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Suntec Reit, Synear Food Holdings, Tiong Woon Corp and Venture Corp.
Investors can expect volatility to persist over the short term, said Ms Carmen Lee, the head of OCBC Investment Research.
Her top sector picks include oil and gas, banks and defensive stocks with high dividend payouts and strong historical earnings track records.
Oil prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand from China and India, said Ms Lee, which should boost oil, offshore, marine, engineering, shipyard and steel stocks.
The prime beneficiaries are likely to be Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine (SembMarine), Cosco Corp and Ezra Holdings.
Keppel Corp's order book came to $13.3 billion in November while SembMarine's came to $7.9 billion in October.
Banks still look good, thanks to robust loans growth and a steady stream of fee revenues.
Though they were not spared in the sub-prime bloodletting, Mr Chris Firth, the chief executive of wealth management firm dollarDEX, said bank stocks will at some point make a strong recovery.
Ms Lee also believes that China's rising affluence will continue to support consumer demand. Infrastructure facilities will also be in demand due to the Olympics this year and the Asian Games in 2010.
China stocks listed in Singapore rose by 44 per cent last year, and the momentum looks set to hold as their valuations are lower than those of their China-based peers.
In its latest strategy report, OCBC Investment Research picked 12 stocks that it expects to rise by an average of 33.3 per cent over the next six to 12 months. They include Cacola Furniture International, China Sports International, DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank.
Potential risks in 2008
FINANCIAL experts point to two dangers: a potential US slowdown and an overheated China market.
Ms Mah said US equity markets are likely to remain sensitive to the negative news coming out of the finance sector, particularly major write-downs related to US sub-prime woes.
'Asian economies that are heavily reliant on import demand from the US would be affected by slower demand for their exports,' she said. 'Economies that are large producers of electronic goods would be the most affected if the US economy undergoes a sharp slowdown.'
This means South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore might be the most vulnerable.
Also, the growth of these four Asian tigers is expected to slow to 4.4 per cent this year from 4.9 per cent last year, according to the IMF.
However, domestic spending and a positive business environment are expected to continue driving the Asian growth engines.
As for the China market, Ms Mah fears that a strong correction in China's bourses could have a contagion effect on all Asian bourses.
Last year, Chinese equities enjoyed a strong rally, driven by both domestic and foreign investors.
IPP Financial Advisers investment director Albert Lam said: 'We believe the foundation of the bull market remains intact... We expect market volatility to continue to dominate in the first half of the year. Liquidity will flow into the market again once the volatility picture clears up towards the second half.'
The clouds have become obvious to most observers by now: a possible economic slowdown in the United States, a weak greenback, high oil prices and continued US sub-prime problems that could affect global credit markets.
That last factor is highly significant as banks and securities firms across the world have announced more than US$40 billion (S$57.4 billion) in losses from write-downs related to US sub-prime or highly risky home loans, said Mr Vasu Menon, OCBC Bank's vice-president of group wealth management.
Looking back at 2007
EMERGING markets such as India and China took top spots last year, with returns of 54.9 per cent and 48 per cent respectively.
And despite a turbulent second half, Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) rose by 16.6 per cent.
Online unit trust distributor Fundsupermart research manager Mah Ching Cheng said global equities have enjoyed strong returns over the past three years. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index has risen 102.5 per cent over that period, while the MSCI World Equity Index went up 36.6 per cent from Dec 30, 2003 to Dec 21 last year.
Hot investment themes in 2008
Asian equities
AMONG equity markets, Asia continues to be favoured by financial experts as the region is likely to outperform in terms of growth.
After all, more than half of the world's population lives in the region, said Mr Lam.
'Per capita incomes that continue to improve in emerging countries, coupled with younger and better-trained workforces, have contributed to the region's consumption ability,' he said.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, developing Asian economies are expected to grow 8.8 per cent this year, against 2.2 per cent for developed markets.
Fundsupermart has picked Thailand as its favourite Asia ex-Japan market. It cites the improvement in Thailand's expected economic growth, with consumer confidence and spending tipped to pick up once the political situation stabilises following last month's elections.
Emerging markets
FOR Ms Mah, what she likes is the healthy earnings growth for emerging market equities, of which about half are in developing Asia.
She is also bullish about equities in India and China, even though they shot up last year. This is because the two are still among the world's fastest-growing economies and their intra-Asia exports should continue to rise steadily. This could provide support for their equity markets, added Ms Mah.
Mr Lam also likes emerging markets. Their rapid growth has boosted their stock markets and resulted in greater liquidity.
'With better liquidity, demand for these securities will also increase. Key industries have been privatised and/or deregulated,' he said. 'Given this, and appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, emerging markets are tipped to continue their robust growth.'
Technology sector
ALL things tech seem to offer considerable potential. Ms Mah notes that the sector's earnings growth this year is expected to hit the high teens.
The US Semiconductor Industry Association expects worldwide chip sales to post an annual growth rate of 7.7 per cent over the next two years. Sales are expected to hit US$276.9 billion this year, compared with projected sales of US$257.1 billion for last year.
The association said a broader range of consumer products and the emergence of large new consumer markets in Asia, Eastern Europe and South America would be the principal drivers of industry growth in the years ahead.
Commodities
OCBC's Mr Menon is keen on commodities, especially oil and precious metals such as gold, which stand to benefit from supply shortfalls and healthy demand.
Singapore stocks
FOLLOWING the sell-down in recent months, the Singapore market appears 'cheap', said Mr Terence Wong, the head of research for retail at DMG & Partners Securities.
He expects the STI to trade up to 3,903 points this year. It closed at 3,437.79 points on Friday.
His top 10 picks for the year: Armstrong Industrial Corp, ASL Marine, China Farm Equipment, China Sports International, Courage Marine Group, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Suntec Reit, Synear Food Holdings, Tiong Woon Corp and Venture Corp.
Investors can expect volatility to persist over the short term, said Ms Carmen Lee, the head of OCBC Investment Research.
Her top sector picks include oil and gas, banks and defensive stocks with high dividend payouts and strong historical earnings track records.
Oil prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand from China and India, said Ms Lee, which should boost oil, offshore, marine, engineering, shipyard and steel stocks.
The prime beneficiaries are likely to be Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine (SembMarine), Cosco Corp and Ezra Holdings.
Keppel Corp's order book came to $13.3 billion in November while SembMarine's came to $7.9 billion in October.
Banks still look good, thanks to robust loans growth and a steady stream of fee revenues.
Though they were not spared in the sub-prime bloodletting, Mr Chris Firth, the chief executive of wealth management firm dollarDEX, said bank stocks will at some point make a strong recovery.
Ms Lee also believes that China's rising affluence will continue to support consumer demand. Infrastructure facilities will also be in demand due to the Olympics this year and the Asian Games in 2010.
China stocks listed in Singapore rose by 44 per cent last year, and the momentum looks set to hold as their valuations are lower than those of their China-based peers.
In its latest strategy report, OCBC Investment Research picked 12 stocks that it expects to rise by an average of 33.3 per cent over the next six to 12 months. They include Cacola Furniture International, China Sports International, DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank.
Potential risks in 2008
FINANCIAL experts point to two dangers: a potential US slowdown and an overheated China market.
Ms Mah said US equity markets are likely to remain sensitive to the negative news coming out of the finance sector, particularly major write-downs related to US sub-prime woes.
'Asian economies that are heavily reliant on import demand from the US would be affected by slower demand for their exports,' she said. 'Economies that are large producers of electronic goods would be the most affected if the US economy undergoes a sharp slowdown.'
This means South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore might be the most vulnerable.
Also, the growth of these four Asian tigers is expected to slow to 4.4 per cent this year from 4.9 per cent last year, according to the IMF.
However, domestic spending and a positive business environment are expected to continue driving the Asian growth engines.
As for the China market, Ms Mah fears that a strong correction in China's bourses could have a contagion effect on all Asian bourses.
Last year, Chinese equities enjoyed a strong rally, driven by both domestic and foreign investors.
Who is living on dividend & not working full time here?
I have been a retiree for 11 years living mainly on dividends. From my experience, one has to put at least 70% of your money on blue chips with regular dividend payout.
The other 30% for periodical thrills to punt on news and guts feeling when market is red hot. With regular payout comes capital appreciation. Look at the banking, oil, shipyard and property counters and you will appreciate what I am saying. Almost all retirees cannot afford to lose! So they have to go for the long haul on blue chips for regular income. If they can live on $2000 a month, $500,000 would suffice with annuity to supplement. Capital appreciation would also mean there will be future growth in their income. Just to share my experience with those considering to retire.
I started in the 1980 when there was no REITs. Therefore I keep my purchases to proven stocks mainly Hong Leong Fin, OCBC, DBS(sold too early), UOB(sold too early), SPC(sold recently), Capitaland(sold), Keppel Land and Keppel corp (both sold too early), F&N (sold recently), Sembawang (sold recently), SGX (sold too early). I do not own them all at the same time. During the 20 odd years, these are the stocks I bought and sold at one time or the other. I am more convinced to land with rock solid counters because of my unpleasant experience with Tat Lee Bank, Clob shares and CAO. Retirees should be reminded that making $2 with a dollar is not without risk. Unless you can afford to lose, please don't try.
Keep to those blue chips you are familiar with. Don't buy those you know vaguely or recommended by friends or "Gurus" unless you do a little reading up on these counters yourself. Otherwise, it will affect your confidence level when there is a market shakeup and cause you to take inappropriate action. Know your stocks well and also know the general trend of the market are the key ingredients of the game. However, no one is spared when there is meltdown no matter how cautious one is. It is only by degree how one is affected. The only consolation is that blue chips continue to provide you with regular dividends to live on and the hope of recovery when the cycle comes.
By: sbyeo
Thank you for sharing.... so....with $500,000, invest 70% ($350,000) with dividend return of 6% to 9% earn $21,000 to $27,000 per year.... not bad !
The other 30% for periodical thrills to punt on news and guts feeling when market is red hot. With regular payout comes capital appreciation. Look at the banking, oil, shipyard and property counters and you will appreciate what I am saying. Almost all retirees cannot afford to lose! So they have to go for the long haul on blue chips for regular income. If they can live on $2000 a month, $500,000 would suffice with annuity to supplement. Capital appreciation would also mean there will be future growth in their income. Just to share my experience with those considering to retire.
I started in the 1980 when there was no REITs. Therefore I keep my purchases to proven stocks mainly Hong Leong Fin, OCBC, DBS(sold too early), UOB(sold too early), SPC(sold recently), Capitaland(sold), Keppel Land and Keppel corp (both sold too early), F&N (sold recently), Sembawang (sold recently), SGX (sold too early). I do not own them all at the same time. During the 20 odd years, these are the stocks I bought and sold at one time or the other. I am more convinced to land with rock solid counters because of my unpleasant experience with Tat Lee Bank, Clob shares and CAO. Retirees should be reminded that making $2 with a dollar is not without risk. Unless you can afford to lose, please don't try.
Keep to those blue chips you are familiar with. Don't buy those you know vaguely or recommended by friends or "Gurus" unless you do a little reading up on these counters yourself. Otherwise, it will affect your confidence level when there is a market shakeup and cause you to take inappropriate action. Know your stocks well and also know the general trend of the market are the key ingredients of the game. However, no one is spared when there is meltdown no matter how cautious one is. It is only by degree how one is affected. The only consolation is that blue chips continue to provide you with regular dividends to live on and the hope of recovery when the cycle comes.
By: sbyeo
Thank you for sharing.... so....with $500,000, invest 70% ($350,000) with dividend return of 6% to 9% earn $21,000 to $27,000 per year.... not bad !
股民迟早要上的一课
每天的中国财经新闻都免不了中国股市的神话。
“再创新高”、“开户热潮”、“股市泡沫”等等已经成为词汇甘蔗渣，从新闻播报员的嘴里一次又一次地用各种语言重复唠叨。
光辉的中国股市，比熊熊燃烧的奥运圣火提前一年，为中国带来了全民的兴奋和辉煌的经济光环。
说起大陆股市的怪状，真是
1.“层出不穷”
2.“汗牛充栋”
3.“罄竹难书”
来搜集一下中国媒体的报道：
童叟无欺篇
童：郑州一四岁小童，天天跟着妈妈到去炒股，每天买进卖出，确定了人生方向。他的“你长大了做什么”的作文，已经有了肯定的答案：万般皆下品，唯有炒股高。
叟：八十岁以上的老人也 1.蠢蠢欲动 2.老当亦壮 3.不甘人后，从沿海的上海、深圳，直到兰州、成都都处处可见七、八十岁的老人参与炒股大军。原本在家含饴弄孙的老人们，把棺材本都全力投入。“老黄忠”们在证券公司里杀个三进三出，赚到盆满钵满。
白领学生篇
公司内：一般的大陆白领更是疯狂，每天早上打开电脑就是先来个网上交易，做工只是每月领干薪，不如炒股挣钱快。倒是上海老板头脑开明，眼见手下人人为炒股而分神，干脆决定上、下午各开放半个小时供员工作为炒股时间。炒股时间到，这家公司的办公室摇身一变就成了“股友俱乐部”；集体炒股高潮半个小时后，恢复工作，大家如同过了鸦片瘾，精神大振。
校园里：资深股票人深圳大学副教授马春辉最近就完成一份研究报告指出，该校学生中，大一就参与炒股者已达一成，大四生更是有高达80%已有投资股票与基金的经验，真是
1.青年才俊
2.后生可畏
3.言传身教。
黄色产业篇
更精彩的还在后头，在投机风气正炽的深圳，近半年来，生意正火热的一些特种营业场所，不约而同都出现三陪女供不应求。中国时报说，不少干部探讨个中因素发现，竟都是股市惹的祸。因为股市行情火热，不少以往日进斗金的三陪女，眼看部分参与炒股的姐妹淘收入更丰，纷纷投入既不须陪酒，又不必看客户脸色，可以生活正常的炒股行列中。
就算没有以炒股替代三陪的皮肉生涯，仍在夜总会的三陪女上班时也是满嘴股票经，要不然就是频频向恩客们打听名牌；不少深圳、上海知名的夜总会到了半夜，摇身一变成为股市名牌交换站。
就在这股「唯股是图」的风气下，珠江三角洲庞大的三陪女部队，许多原本每个月都要汇回老家的资金，都暂时投入股票与基金投资；银行业也对这种罕见现象啧啧称奇。
精神科发财
根据中国媒体报道，最近沿海城市里，股票交易厅人山人海，而医院精神科也人满为患；精神科医院开口问求诊者的开场白已经统一成：「你最近是不是作股票了？」。
现在，国家官员已经开口，说全民炒股是件好事情。
全民炒股是好事情？开玩笑。
第一，中国的八亿农民还没有开炒，单单一亿城市人享受到股市带来的好处，这绝对不算是全民炒股。这个题目很大，我另外写。
第二，中国股市从没有经历过亚太金融风暴的大起大落。当97年全球的金融金融市场大崩盘，香港、新加坡、美国股民烧到手，自杀率飙升的时候，中国却因为人民币不能自由兑换而安然度过了金融风暴。
区域国家曾经用沉重的代价，才学会了小心控制房地产和股市的泡沫。但中国政府和中国股民却都没有在那次的大风暴中站在风口浪尖上。
毛主席说：“要想知道梨子的滋味，只有亲口尝一尝”，实践是检验真理的唯一标准。老人家真是英明。
中国要知道泡沫破灭的滋味，就得面对自己的泡沫，亲口尝一尝。
中国新股民要真正学习稳健投资的策略，就得亲口尝尝暴跌的滋味。对中国股民来说，这迟来的风险意识课，是迟早全民都要上的。
再引用毛主席的话：“天要下雨，娘要嫁人，随他去吧。”
“再创新高”、“开户热潮”、“股市泡沫”等等已经成为词汇甘蔗渣，从新闻播报员的嘴里一次又一次地用各种语言重复唠叨。
光辉的中国股市，比熊熊燃烧的奥运圣火提前一年，为中国带来了全民的兴奋和辉煌的经济光环。
说起大陆股市的怪状，真是
1.“层出不穷”
2.“汗牛充栋”
3.“罄竹难书”
来搜集一下中国媒体的报道：
童叟无欺篇
童：郑州一四岁小童，天天跟着妈妈到去炒股，每天买进卖出，确定了人生方向。他的“你长大了做什么”的作文，已经有了肯定的答案：万般皆下品，唯有炒股高。
叟：八十岁以上的老人也 1.蠢蠢欲动 2.老当亦壮 3.不甘人后，从沿海的上海、深圳，直到兰州、成都都处处可见七、八十岁的老人参与炒股大军。原本在家含饴弄孙的老人们，把棺材本都全力投入。“老黄忠”们在证券公司里杀个三进三出，赚到盆满钵满。
白领学生篇
公司内：一般的大陆白领更是疯狂，每天早上打开电脑就是先来个网上交易，做工只是每月领干薪，不如炒股挣钱快。倒是上海老板头脑开明，眼见手下人人为炒股而分神，干脆决定上、下午各开放半个小时供员工作为炒股时间。炒股时间到，这家公司的办公室摇身一变就成了“股友俱乐部”；集体炒股高潮半个小时后，恢复工作，大家如同过了鸦片瘾，精神大振。
校园里：资深股票人深圳大学副教授马春辉最近就完成一份研究报告指出，该校学生中，大一就参与炒股者已达一成，大四生更是有高达80%已有投资股票与基金的经验，真是
1.青年才俊
2.后生可畏
3.言传身教。
黄色产业篇
更精彩的还在后头，在投机风气正炽的深圳，近半年来，生意正火热的一些特种营业场所，不约而同都出现三陪女供不应求。中国时报说，不少干部探讨个中因素发现，竟都是股市惹的祸。因为股市行情火热，不少以往日进斗金的三陪女，眼看部分参与炒股的姐妹淘收入更丰，纷纷投入既不须陪酒，又不必看客户脸色，可以生活正常的炒股行列中。
就算没有以炒股替代三陪的皮肉生涯，仍在夜总会的三陪女上班时也是满嘴股票经，要不然就是频频向恩客们打听名牌；不少深圳、上海知名的夜总会到了半夜，摇身一变成为股市名牌交换站。
就在这股「唯股是图」的风气下，珠江三角洲庞大的三陪女部队，许多原本每个月都要汇回老家的资金，都暂时投入股票与基金投资；银行业也对这种罕见现象啧啧称奇。
精神科发财
根据中国媒体报道，最近沿海城市里，股票交易厅人山人海，而医院精神科也人满为患；精神科医院开口问求诊者的开场白已经统一成：「你最近是不是作股票了？」。
现在，国家官员已经开口，说全民炒股是件好事情。
全民炒股是好事情？开玩笑。
第一，中国的八亿农民还没有开炒，单单一亿城市人享受到股市带来的好处，这绝对不算是全民炒股。这个题目很大，我另外写。
第二，中国股市从没有经历过亚太金融风暴的大起大落。当97年全球的金融金融市场大崩盘，香港、新加坡、美国股民烧到手，自杀率飙升的时候，中国却因为人民币不能自由兑换而安然度过了金融风暴。
区域国家曾经用沉重的代价，才学会了小心控制房地产和股市的泡沫。但中国政府和中国股民却都没有在那次的大风暴中站在风口浪尖上。
毛主席说：“要想知道梨子的滋味，只有亲口尝一尝”，实践是检验真理的唯一标准。老人家真是英明。
中国要知道泡沫破灭的滋味，就得面对自己的泡沫，亲口尝一尝。
中国新股民要真正学习稳健投资的策略，就得亲口尝尝暴跌的滋味。对中国股民来说，这迟来的风险意识课，是迟早全民都要上的。
再引用毛主席的话：“天要下雨，娘要嫁人，随他去吧。”
Friday, January 4, 2008
DMG Research Guide to Investment Ratings by Terence Wong
ALL FIGURED OUT - DREAM THEMES 2008
It has been volatile, but 2007 is proving to be yet another generous year for the stock market. With the Straits Times Index (STI) shooting up by over 120% from 2003-06, many thought 2007 would be the year the market takes a breather. But it stumped all critics by once again defying gravity. The STI surged to record highs and at one point, flirted with the 4,000 point mark – more than 3 times higher than this millennium’s trough in 2003. Despite the spike, valuations have remained reasonable all through, supported by strong corporate earnings and solid growth prospects. In fact, over the past 2 years, Singapore’s economy has been firing on practically all cylinders, growing at a pace of a developing nation.
Looking into 2008, the bright domestic economic drivers appear to be weighed down by the increasingly challenging external environment. The road ahead will be bumpy, with great uncertainty on where the market is heading. If you, like many investors out there, are seeking answers and direction, look no further. Our title says it all - we have 2008 all figured out! Read on to see tomorrow’s themes and how you can profit from it.
1
Executive Summary
Home Team fights on. We believe that the Singapore economy will expand 6% in 2008, driven by domestic growth and strength in regional economies. While growth in financial services and property are expected to taper off, the construction and offshore & marine sectors will more than compensate. Worries about US and China are warranted, but domestic drivers should be strong enough to fend them off.
Domestic defensives in face of uncertainty.
Home is where the heart is, and where the money can be made. As such, investors can consider hunting domestically for potential winners, especially those with solid yields.
Our home defensive favourites include Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Suntec Reit.
Oil’s unabated strength.
The Oil & Gas sector has been enjoying one of the best runs in decades. With oil prices expected to remain high in the near future, we see no disruption to the party in 2008. While we still like the big blues like Keppel Corp, we believe second-tier players ASL Marine, Tiong Woon Corp and Courage Marine will outperform the sector.
QDII booster for S-shares.
With QDII funds expected to flow through our shores, there will be support for some Chinabased companies, or S-shares. We favour companies riding on rising consumerism (Synear Food and China Sports International) and agriculture (China Farm Equipment) in China.
Tech may surprise, but not just yet. Technology, the whipping boy in the past few years, may turn out to be a dark horse. The industry is still looking shaky, with consumer confidence in the US just starting to dip and the US dollar continuing on its decline. But valuations are looking attractive, and if consumer confidence and the dollar were to turn around, there will be a re-rating of the sector and this will benefit the likes of Venture Corp and Armstrong Industrial Corp. This, however, will unlikely happen in the near term.
Evergreen themes.
In this paper, we have also identified 2 themes which will be around for years to come. Alternative energy stocks have seen more downs than ups, despite all the hype surrounding them. But like dotcom companies, there will be winners and investors will just have to fall back on basics to pick them. Sovereign wealth funds will be another important theme in the coming years as they flex their financial clout.
Market beaten down to attractive levels.
Following the sell-down in the recent months, the Singapore market is looking cheap. The STI is trading at 14x FY08 PER, which is at the lower end of its 10-year PER band. We believe that it has the ability to trade up to its 5-year average of 16x PER, implying a target of 3,903 for 2008.
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Fundamentals - Little Red Dot’s Big Picture
The remaking of Singapore started with much fanfare in 2002 but a confluence of negative factors – SARS, recession and Iraq war – the following year took the shine away. The economy has flourished considerably since the darkest days and is seeing one of the most powerful runs in more than a decade, growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%.
Based on forecasts by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore is expected to revert to its medium-term potential of 4.5-6.5% in 2008. We believe that the Singapore economy should be able to hit the upper end of the estimate, driven by domestic growth and strength in regional economies.
It’s still going to be the domestic market.
First, the bad news. The external environment is looking shaky, with fears of a US subprime crisis-led contagion as well as escalating oil prices plaguing global markets. Closer to home, the key financial services and property-related transactions, which accounted for 28% of the GDP growth in the first half of 2007, will likely slow. But the good news is that domestic drivers like construction will more than make up for the slack.
Hard hats to power growth. The construction sector is expected to be the star performer once again in 2008. After entering the darkest of tunnels, the sun is finally shining on this sector. At its low point in 2004, contract size fell almost 60% to S$10b. But with the current building boom, construction contracts are expected to double to S$19-22b in 2007. In fact, manpower and resources are so stretched that the government is delaying some S$2b worth of public sector projects. Notable construction activities include the two integrated resorts (IR), Downtown and Circle MRT lines, numerous en-bloc projects, and the iconic Ion Orchard.
O&M continues to ride the crest. The offshore & marine sector, which has lost some lustre following the forex fiasco by SembCorp Marine and Labroy Marine, is still expected to grow impressively.
The two largest oil-rig builders – Keppel Corp and SembCorp Marine – continue to shine with strong combined order books of over S$17b running into 2011. It was barely a billion 5 years back.
Good house in a good neighbourhood. Singapore has often been described as a good house in a bad neighbourhood.
This may be a thing of the past, as restructuring in the past few years has strengthened our neighbours’ houses.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are all expected to grow, with improving consumer spending and numerous big-scale infrastructure projects. There will be demand for project financing, and given Singapore’s status as a project financing hub, it will be abuzz with activity. The surge in raw materials used for these infrastructure projects will most likely go through our ports, giving a boost to trade-related services.
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Risks – Potential Party Poopers
No decoupling for now. There is a possibility that US may fall into a recession. If it were a mild downturn, the strength from Singapore’s domestic and regional drivers should be able to withstand the external pressures. However, if it were a deep and pronounced recession, it is tough to escape unscathed, given that US is still one of the most important trading partners.
Financial sector walking a thin line. The state of banks’ health is a concern. Given the huge write-offs that the big global banks will be making for the fourth quarter of 2007, the full year results that are slated to be released in the beginning of 2008 will not be pretty. And if the losses turn out to be bigger than expected, financial stocks will take a hit, which may then spread to the rest of the market.
China stepping on the brakes. China has made public its plans to intensify its policy tightening measures in 2008 to curb credit growth. China’s attempt to slow its red-hot economy may have an adverse effect on global markets. The Singapore stock market, with an increasing concentration of China-based companies, will not be spared.
More and more expensive in Singapore. Noodles, bread and eggs have all gone up. Transport, housing and electricity are also getting more expensive. The Singapore economy is currently at full employment, with an estimated 200,000 jobs created in 2007. As a result, the cost of new hires is likely to escalate. All these add up to inflationary pressures, that if left unchecked, will have a severe adverse impact on the economy. The Consumer Price index (CPI) looks tame so far, as it has not fully captured the extent of inflation. The full impact will be visible next year.
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Valuation – Still a Steal?
2007 may go down in history as the most volatile year to date. For the first 11 months of 2007, there were 29 trading sessions which witnessed swings of 2% or more and 12 trading sessions which saw triple digit changes. The STI went up by as much as 30%, before giving up more than half its gains to end the year.
The swings in UOB-Sesdaq were even more pronounced. It was the best performing market globally in the first half of 2007, more than doubling between January to June, but has since slumped over 30% from the peak.
At 3,357, the STI is trading at 15.2x 2007 and 13.7x 2008 PER, which is a tad cheaper compared to regional bourses.
This is on the lower end of its 5-year PER band – the STI traded as low as 10.5x to a high of 22.5x PER. From a price-tobook value (P/B) perspective, it is lower than its peers but higher than its historical average. Dividend yield of 4.1% remains one of the best in the region.
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STI – A Closer Look
To value the STI, we have chosen to use the 5-year averages of STI’s PER and dividend yield. We believe P/B is not an accurate measure, considering that quite a few of the component stocks have either adopted an asset-light strategy (eg SGX and even property counters like CapitaLand) or chosen to effectively manage their capital (eg StarHub and M1) over the past few years. Moreover, services companies like Parkway and Hyflux – which trade at lofty P/Bs – have grown in importance. All these factors have led to the market trading above the historical P/B average, a pattern which will likely persist.
From a dividend yield perspective, if the STI reverts to its average of 3.5%, it will be fairly valued at 3,886. Assuming that the STI trades up to the average of its PER band, or 16x PER, our target for the STI is 3,903, giving the index an upside of 16% - not too far off from what is suggested by the “reversion to average yield” method.
DREAM THEMES 2008
Domestic Defensives - Home sweet home
Home is where the heart is, and where the money can be made. With our economy still strong and the external environment increasingly uncertain, investors can consider hunting domestically for potential winners.
Companies riding on the domestic reflation story will continue to benefit from a strong domestic economy. Banks have been hit particularly hard in recent months as a result of the US subprime crisis, but have stabilised in the last couple of weeks. Of the Big Three, UOB should be the biggest beneficiary of mortgage financing of residential projects due for completion in the next two years.
Margins are also expected to head north as the macro climate improves. In the near term, its share price may take a hit as global banks make massive write-offs relating to the subprime exposure, but such knee-jerks should present buying opportunities.
On the property front, we like the retail and commercial sub-sectors, and believe that REITs like Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Suntec REIT will outperform both the market and its peers.
Media giant SPH has a few positive drivers in 2008 – a robust publishing business, higher retail property income and earnings coming through from its Sky@Eleven project, which was sold out shortly after its launch earlier this year. One of the biggest draws of SPH is its attractive yields.
Notwithstanding the high oil prices, transport companies also offer a good shelter for investors should the weather turn nasty in the US. We like SMRT for its organic growth and cost efficiencies. Ridership on its trains is expected to grow a healthy 6% in 2008 on the back of Singapore’s strong economy, which has bolstered employment and discretionary travel (eg shopping on weekends). While growth of 6% may not seem to be impressive, it actually is so due to cost efficiencies. For example, in its 2QFY08 results, revenue inched up 5%, but net profit actually jumped 25%.
Our picks for this theme encompasses the major components of the economy – banks, properties, media and transport – sharing a common trait: mouth-watering dividend yields, which lends support in times of uncertainty.
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Oil – Unrivalled stamina
“People seem almost more relaxed about US$100 than they were about US$60 or US$70 oil.” Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Association.
With raging demand from fast developing areas (particularly China), crude oil prices came close to US$100 per barrel in November 2007. A couple of years ago, most economists thought this psychological mark will send the global economy into a recession. In fact, high oil price, which is effectively a tax on consumers and businesses, crippled the US economy in 1970s and early 1980s.
However, the global economy has been expanding despite rising oil prices as we are far less dependent on oil in recent years compared to a decade ago due to energy efficiency. Moreover, the rise this time round was due to demand surge, rather than a supply crunch (as the case in the 1970s).
The jury’s still out on oil price trends, with forecasts ranging from US$70 to US$120 in 2008. However, one thing’s for sure – we will be living in an era of high oil prices and it will not revert to the US$24 per barrel 60-year average anytime soon.
Offshore & Marine industry will be a beneficiary of this rising tide. Order books running into billions of dollars are lockedin and run till 2011. The forex debacle at SembCorp Marine and Labroy Marine threw up some doubts on the industry’s internal controls and practices, but these cases seem to be the exception rather than the rule. We believe second-tier players like ASL Marine, Courage Marine and Tiong Woon Corp have the potential to outperform its industry peers in 2008.
ASL Marine is a fully integrated marine company with a strong focus in shipbuilding, shiprepair, shipchartering, and other marine related services, catering to customers mainly from Asia Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The strong demand for offshore oil and gas exploration activities is driving up orders for new support vessels. As a result, it is sitting on record ship building orders of S$670m. It is also riding on the back of booming infrastructure development in the Middle East.
Also benefiting from the Middle East is Tiong Woon, the crane provider which has grown both its onshore and offshore businesses. There is currently a global shortage of cranes and this has boosted the demand for the company’s cranes and haulage rates, which has been rising between 15-20% over the past 3 years.
Investors who are more prudent may want to consider Courage Marine, a dry bulk shipping company with dividend yield of close to 10%. Its fortunes have gone up in tandem with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has trebled since a year ago with a big surge in demand for the transportation of commodities to the world’s fastest growing economies – China and India.
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S-shares - QDII sweeps into Singapore
The Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme, which aims to liberalise Chinese investors’ investments abroad, will kick-off in 2008. This will boost the Singapore market, which has the highest concentration of China companies outside Greater China.
So far, 4 funds have been established, with mandates to invest in Hong Kong, US, Europe, Singapore and other emerging markets. Deutsche Bank’s joint venture Harvest Fund Management, for example, raised US$4b (S$6b) in October 2007 and will mainly invest in Hong Kong, Singapore and US-listed companies that derive at least 50% of their revenue from China. RMB1.5 trillion (S$300b) is estimated to flow through to overseas assets under the QDII
programme.
There are likely to be limits to the amount that each fund can place in a particular country, debunking any initial rumours that the bulk of the money will go into the Hong Kong market.
Given the sharp surge in Hong Kong, many would expect the market to be a lot more expensive compared to its Singapore peers. But not so, if we were to compare Singapore’s Prime Partners China Index with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI). On a forward PER basis, S-shares are only a touch cheaper than H-shares and based on current year earnings, S-shares appear to be more expensive. Locally, the best bargains are found in the lower market cap companies. For example, those with market capitalization of less than S$100m actually go for less than 10x prospective earnings.
However, QDII funds will likely seek the companies with larger market caps, ie those above S$1b. While the valuations appear rich compared to the Singapore market, it is inexpensive relative to their China-listed peers, which are commonly traded at twice the PER. As a group, the billion-dollar S-shares are trading at 34x FY07 and 22x FY08 PER.
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Consumer stocks, which are riding on the back of a burgeoning middle class in China, will likely be big favourites. Among the big caps, we favour Synear Food Holdings, a quick freeze food products player with a national presence – one of the very few SGX-listed China company which can lay such a claim. As the exclusive frozen foods supplier to the upcoming Olympics, 2008 is set to be an exciting year for the company.
Also benefiting from the fervour and sentiments generated from Olympics is China Sports International. The company taps on the fast-growing domestic youth market in China, focusing on “value-for-money” products priced in the range of RMB150-250. With aggressive brand awareness programmes in the lower tiered cities, we expect earnings growth to be strong in the coming years.
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Food – The New Oil
For years, food prices have been getting cheaper and cheaper. But 2007 has been a turning point, with just about every crop and poultry under the sun hitting record or near-record levels. The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation’s food price index jumped 37% in 2007 over the first three-quarters of the year. Like oil, food prices have been rising on the back of growing demand from global consumers. There are two key reasons behind this phenomenon, one which is likely to prevail. First, developing nations are getting hungrier (actually greedier). Back in 1985, the average Chinese consumed 20kg of meat, but has since more than doubled his appetite to 50kg in 2007, thanks to an increasingly affluent society. This results in a greater demand for grain, which is used to feed the chickens, pigs and cows that we eat. But the middle class in developing countries has been growing steadily over the years, so why are prices surging only in 2007? A more important reason is biodiesel, which soaks up a third of US’ corn harvest. More farm land has, as a result, been devoted to corn, sacrificing other important crops like wheat and soybean. This has led to the upward spiral of all crops to lofty heights.
Billions of consumers globally, who have grown accustomed to sliding food prices since, will feel a big pinch on every grocery trip. Farmers, however, will finally reap what they have been sowing all these years. In the US, farmers’ take is expected to be 50% higher compared to the previous year. Payouts may not be as rich in Asia, but the next few years look brighter than anytime in the past few decades. While some of the money will be spent on a much deserved holiday,
the bulk of the earnings will be ploughed back on their farms to improve efficiencies and yields. The importance of agriculture is underscored by the concessions and subsidies given to farmers in key agriculture countries. China is a case in point. While it is taking steps to curb the overall growth of loans, it is actually encouraging banks to lend more for agricultural development.
China XLX, which produces fertilizers in China, will be a likely beneficiary. China is the world’s largest consumer of fertilizers, and its consumption represents approximately 30% of global production. The company has arguably one of the best cost structures in the industry and will stand to win in the event of a deregulation in the industry, which will accelerate M&A opportunities.
However, on valuation grounds, our pick within this sector is China Farm Equipment, the top manufacturer of farm harvesters in Hunan province. With agriculture being a key sector, the Chinese government has spearheaded initiatives to raise the efficiency through mechanisation. Farmers are given subsidies by the government, which encourages them to invest in new modern equipment.
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Technology – The Tortoise and the Horse
The technology sector has been underperforming the market since 2004. Many have placed their bets that 2007 was going to be a turnaround year, but the industry met with immensely testing challenges, including tepid demand growth and a free-falling US dollar. As a result, the SES Electronics Index fell 13% in 2007. However, this particular index is not the most accurate benchmark, as it is laden with stocks from the yesteryear, like GP Industries, IPC Corp, IDT Holdings, and Goldtron. In fact, the best performer among the 14 component stocks is an almost unknown company called Powermatic Data. Our own price-weighted index (we used a basket of 13 tech stocks that are more familiar to investors) suggests that the tech sector appreciated 8% in 2007, a better performance compared to the archaic SES Electronics Index but still pales in comparison to the STI.
With consumer confidence in the US slumping and the dollar digging deeper, tech industry’s fortunes appear to be even grimmer in 2008. But valuations have been beaten down to multi-year lows. Many of these stocks are trading at singledigit PERs, and this may result in more M&As (the tech industry accounted for more than half of 2007’s M&A transactions).
While we remain neutral on the sector, we recognize that a turn in consumer sentiments or US dollar may spark a rerating.
This may happen towards the later part of 2008. If so, the tech sector will be like the tortoise in Aesop’s Fables - slow at the start before catching up in the later part of the race.
We believe 2 stocks will do well in this ‘dark horse’ sector – electronics manufacturing services provider and tech bellwether Venture Corp as well as precision engineering specialist Armstrong Industrial.
Venture Corp, the largest tech manufacturer listed on SGX, is currently trading at just 10x prospective PER, which is as cheap as it gets. During the heady dotcom days, the one-time market darling was trading at close to 50x earnings. On top of slowing growth, investors have been worried about its collaterised debt obligations (CDO). However, from our understanding, its CDO holdings are not directly exposed to the US subprime market and are actually investment grade corporate bonds.
Foam and rubber specialist Armstrong Industrial Corp, on the other hand, is one of the fastest growing tech companies over the past 3 years, and has seen its share price more than double in 2007. We believe that there is still more room to run, driven by its focus on high margin rubber business. Despite the spurt in its share price, valuations are well-supported by its sound fundamentals.
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Alternative Energy - Climaxing with the Climate
I just checked my carbon footprint on the internet and realized that I produce a whopping 16 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, no thanks to the frequent business trips. That’s 30% higher than our national average of 12.2 tonnes and many times the global average of 4 tonnes. For the record, every being on the planet needs to bring it down to 2 tonnes to save the earth (good reason to tell my bosses that I need to fly less).
Indeed, climate is the talk of the town and hardly a day goes by without hearing about global warming, Kyoto protocol and carbon credits. It is set to get big in Singapore, and will be the talking point for years to come. However, there have been some initial glitches.
Getting burnt from solar. Solar may be the next big thing, but investors will have to exercise loads of caution when buying into such companies. Equation Corp, formerly known as HeShe Holdings, panned a US$150m deal to manufacture solar panels using thin film amorphous silicon technology. This comes barely a month after Rowsley called off its S$2.7b deal to acquire Perfect Field, a manufacturer of thin-film solar panels. It came with a profit guarantee of S$300m per year from FY2008-2010, no mean feat considering that the company eked out less than S$5m a year ago.
Carbon credits yet to take off. There has also been a lot of talk on carbon credits lately. ecoWise Holdings inked a deal to sell 95,000 carbon credits, or Certified Emission Requirements (CER) to Kansai Electric Power, Japan’s second-largest utility company, becoming the first SGX-listed player to sell carbon credits from a renewable energy project.
Commodities trader Noble Group has also established a carbon credit division which is reportedly the largest trader of CER, with a global market share of 15-20%. Oculus, previously a contact lens maker, has dropped initial plans to acquire China hydropower plants in favour of a reverse takeover with Aretae Pte Ltd, an environmental solutions company dealing with carbon credits.
Biofuels fired up. With oil prices hitting record levels, the demand outlook for biofuels have also picked up. This has resulted in palm oil – the world’s most consumed vegetable oil and the most economical – rising 55% in the first 11 months of 2007 to hit lifetime highs. This is a boon for feedstock providers, but a bane for the refiners. Plantation owners like Wilmar and Golden-Agri Resources were the darlings of the stock market, growing to become one of the largest companies on the SGX. On the flip side, companies like Advanced Holdings, which intended to produce biofuels, have pushed back plans indefinitely as a result of the rapidly rising feedstock prices.
As this report goes to print, SGX-listed Enviro-Hub Holdings announced that it will be building a S$50m plant to convert plastic waste into useable fuels and gases. Investors should be patient and wait for results before committing to companies with seemingly exciting new ideas. Climate-related companies will be a recurring theme in years to come, but investors will need to be selective and base their investments on fundamentals and valuations, rather than hope and
hype.
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SWFs on the Prowl
In the past 2 years, it was the private equity funds that were making the noise in the market, snapping up company after company. In the coming years, it will be sovereign wealth funds (SWF) or state-owned funds like Temasek Holdings which will steal the limelight.
The top 10 SWFs hold between US$32b and US$875b. Collectively, the 48 SWFs from over 40 countries are estimated to have US$2.5-3 trillion worth of funds (already more than hedge funds’ US$1.6 trillion), and this is expected to balloon to US$12-15 trillion by 2015. Even states like Libya and Iran, not exactly the poster boys of international finance, are rumoured to be in the process of establishing sovereign funds. With the subprime crisis taking a tremendous toll on banks, these funds have snapped up significant stakes in venerable names like Citi, UBS,Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
Top Sovereign Funds
UAE ADIA 875
Singapore GIC 330
Saudi Arabia Various funds 300
Norway Government Pension Fund 300
China China Investment Corp 300
Singapore Temasek Holdings 100
Kuwait Kuwait Investment Authority 70
Australia Australian Future Fund 40
US (Alaska) Permanent Fund Corp 35
Russia Stabilisation Fund 32
Source: Economist
The world’s entire supply of shares and bonds stand at approximately US$55 trillion each. SWFs, with trillions on hand, are likely to go shopping for key assets. With fears that these funds will be making purchases for political reasons rather than economic ones (Middle East and China, in particular), Europe and the US are pushing for stronger regulations and greater transparency. This may push funds away from the West and into Asian assets. Singapore, renowned for its high level of corporate governance and transparency, is home to quality companies with solid balance sheets. These should be good enough for some of the oil money and dragon dollars to look our way.
Given that Southeast Asia is expected to grow in the next few years, SWF’s may seek blue-chip Singapore companies with an entrenched presence in the region. SingTel and DBS have already been invited to a “get-to-know-you” conference organized by Dubai International Capital, a US$12b private fund of Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohd Maktoum.
Who’s next?
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Final Analysis
The mood heading into the New Year is more sombre than anytime in the last 5 years, no thanks to an ailing US economy, the prevailing subprime crisis, high commodity prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, we believe the market may have overreacted in the last 2 months of the year, and this has created buying opportunities. From our estimates, the STI has the ability to rise as much as 16% from the current 3,357 to hit 3,903 by the end of 2008. Driving the market will be the domestic defensives, offshore & marine sector as well as selected China-based companies.
Technology sector may turn out to be a sleeper hit towards the end of the year, assuming the US economy does not capitulate.
The tunnel ahead may be a little darker than before, but hopefully our strategy piece has shed some light and make investing a lot less daunting. For a more detailed analysis of key sectors and stocks, read on. Have a great investing year ahead!
It has been volatile, but 2007 is proving to be yet another generous year for the stock market. With the Straits Times Index (STI) shooting up by over 120% from 2003-06, many thought 2007 would be the year the market takes a breather. But it stumped all critics by once again defying gravity. The STI surged to record highs and at one point, flirted with the 4,000 point mark – more than 3 times higher than this millennium’s trough in 2003. Despite the spike, valuations have remained reasonable all through, supported by strong corporate earnings and solid growth prospects. In fact, over the past 2 years, Singapore’s economy has been firing on practically all cylinders, growing at a pace of a developing nation.
Looking into 2008, the bright domestic economic drivers appear to be weighed down by the increasingly challenging external environment. The road ahead will be bumpy, with great uncertainty on where the market is heading. If you, like many investors out there, are seeking answers and direction, look no further. Our title says it all - we have 2008 all figured out! Read on to see tomorrow’s themes and how you can profit from it.
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Executive Summary
Home Team fights on. We believe that the Singapore economy will expand 6% in 2008, driven by domestic growth and strength in regional economies. While growth in financial services and property are expected to taper off, the construction and offshore & marine sectors will more than compensate. Worries about US and China are warranted, but domestic drivers should be strong enough to fend them off.
Domestic defensives in face of uncertainty.
Home is where the heart is, and where the money can be made. As such, investors can consider hunting domestically for potential winners, especially those with solid yields.
Our home defensive favourites include Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Suntec Reit.
Oil’s unabated strength.
The Oil & Gas sector has been enjoying one of the best runs in decades. With oil prices expected to remain high in the near future, we see no disruption to the party in 2008. While we still like the big blues like Keppel Corp, we believe second-tier players ASL Marine, Tiong Woon Corp and Courage Marine will outperform the sector.
QDII booster for S-shares.
With QDII funds expected to flow through our shores, there will be support for some Chinabased companies, or S-shares. We favour companies riding on rising consumerism (Synear Food and China Sports International) and agriculture (China Farm Equipment) in China.
Tech may surprise, but not just yet. Technology, the whipping boy in the past few years, may turn out to be a dark horse. The industry is still looking shaky, with consumer confidence in the US just starting to dip and the US dollar continuing on its decline. But valuations are looking attractive, and if consumer confidence and the dollar were to turn around, there will be a re-rating of the sector and this will benefit the likes of Venture Corp and Armstrong Industrial Corp. This, however, will unlikely happen in the near term.
Evergreen themes.
In this paper, we have also identified 2 themes which will be around for years to come. Alternative energy stocks have seen more downs than ups, despite all the hype surrounding them. But like dotcom companies, there will be winners and investors will just have to fall back on basics to pick them. Sovereign wealth funds will be another important theme in the coming years as they flex their financial clout.
Market beaten down to attractive levels.
Following the sell-down in the recent months, the Singapore market is looking cheap. The STI is trading at 14x FY08 PER, which is at the lower end of its 10-year PER band. We believe that it has the ability to trade up to its 5-year average of 16x PER, implying a target of 3,903 for 2008.
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Fundamentals - Little Red Dot’s Big Picture
The remaking of Singapore started with much fanfare in 2002 but a confluence of negative factors – SARS, recession and Iraq war – the following year took the shine away. The economy has flourished considerably since the darkest days and is seeing one of the most powerful runs in more than a decade, growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%.
Based on forecasts by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore is expected to revert to its medium-term potential of 4.5-6.5% in 2008. We believe that the Singapore economy should be able to hit the upper end of the estimate, driven by domestic growth and strength in regional economies.
It’s still going to be the domestic market.
First, the bad news. The external environment is looking shaky, with fears of a US subprime crisis-led contagion as well as escalating oil prices plaguing global markets. Closer to home, the key financial services and property-related transactions, which accounted for 28% of the GDP growth in the first half of 2007, will likely slow. But the good news is that domestic drivers like construction will more than make up for the slack.
Hard hats to power growth. The construction sector is expected to be the star performer once again in 2008. After entering the darkest of tunnels, the sun is finally shining on this sector. At its low point in 2004, contract size fell almost 60% to S$10b. But with the current building boom, construction contracts are expected to double to S$19-22b in 2007. In fact, manpower and resources are so stretched that the government is delaying some S$2b worth of public sector projects. Notable construction activities include the two integrated resorts (IR), Downtown and Circle MRT lines, numerous en-bloc projects, and the iconic Ion Orchard.
O&M continues to ride the crest. The offshore & marine sector, which has lost some lustre following the forex fiasco by SembCorp Marine and Labroy Marine, is still expected to grow impressively.
The two largest oil-rig builders – Keppel Corp and SembCorp Marine – continue to shine with strong combined order books of over S$17b running into 2011. It was barely a billion 5 years back.
Good house in a good neighbourhood. Singapore has often been described as a good house in a bad neighbourhood.
This may be a thing of the past, as restructuring in the past few years has strengthened our neighbours’ houses.
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are all expected to grow, with improving consumer spending and numerous big-scale infrastructure projects. There will be demand for project financing, and given Singapore’s status as a project financing hub, it will be abuzz with activity. The surge in raw materials used for these infrastructure projects will most likely go through our ports, giving a boost to trade-related services.
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Risks – Potential Party Poopers
No decoupling for now. There is a possibility that US may fall into a recession. If it were a mild downturn, the strength from Singapore’s domestic and regional drivers should be able to withstand the external pressures. However, if it were a deep and pronounced recession, it is tough to escape unscathed, given that US is still one of the most important trading partners.
Financial sector walking a thin line. The state of banks’ health is a concern. Given the huge write-offs that the big global banks will be making for the fourth quarter of 2007, the full year results that are slated to be released in the beginning of 2008 will not be pretty. And if the losses turn out to be bigger than expected, financial stocks will take a hit, which may then spread to the rest of the market.
China stepping on the brakes. China has made public its plans to intensify its policy tightening measures in 2008 to curb credit growth. China’s attempt to slow its red-hot economy may have an adverse effect on global markets. The Singapore stock market, with an increasing concentration of China-based companies, will not be spared.
More and more expensive in Singapore. Noodles, bread and eggs have all gone up. Transport, housing and electricity are also getting more expensive. The Singapore economy is currently at full employment, with an estimated 200,000 jobs created in 2007. As a result, the cost of new hires is likely to escalate. All these add up to inflationary pressures, that if left unchecked, will have a severe adverse impact on the economy. The Consumer Price index (CPI) looks tame so far, as it has not fully captured the extent of inflation. The full impact will be visible next year.
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Valuation – Still a Steal?
2007 may go down in history as the most volatile year to date. For the first 11 months of 2007, there were 29 trading sessions which witnessed swings of 2% or more and 12 trading sessions which saw triple digit changes. The STI went up by as much as 30%, before giving up more than half its gains to end the year.
The swings in UOB-Sesdaq were even more pronounced. It was the best performing market globally in the first half of 2007, more than doubling between January to June, but has since slumped over 30% from the peak.
At 3,357, the STI is trading at 15.2x 2007 and 13.7x 2008 PER, which is a tad cheaper compared to regional bourses.
This is on the lower end of its 5-year PER band – the STI traded as low as 10.5x to a high of 22.5x PER. From a price-tobook value (P/B) perspective, it is lower than its peers but higher than its historical average. Dividend yield of 4.1% remains one of the best in the region.
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STI – A Closer Look
To value the STI, we have chosen to use the 5-year averages of STI’s PER and dividend yield. We believe P/B is not an accurate measure, considering that quite a few of the component stocks have either adopted an asset-light strategy (eg SGX and even property counters like CapitaLand) or chosen to effectively manage their capital (eg StarHub and M1) over the past few years. Moreover, services companies like Parkway and Hyflux – which trade at lofty P/Bs – have grown in importance. All these factors have led to the market trading above the historical P/B average, a pattern which will likely persist.
From a dividend yield perspective, if the STI reverts to its average of 3.5%, it will be fairly valued at 3,886. Assuming that the STI trades up to the average of its PER band, or 16x PER, our target for the STI is 3,903, giving the index an upside of 16% - not too far off from what is suggested by the “reversion to average yield” method.
DREAM THEMES 2008
Domestic Defensives - Home sweet home
Home is where the heart is, and where the money can be made. With our economy still strong and the external environment increasingly uncertain, investors can consider hunting domestically for potential winners.
Companies riding on the domestic reflation story will continue to benefit from a strong domestic economy. Banks have been hit particularly hard in recent months as a result of the US subprime crisis, but have stabilised in the last couple of weeks. Of the Big Three, UOB should be the biggest beneficiary of mortgage financing of residential projects due for completion in the next two years.
Margins are also expected to head north as the macro climate improves. In the near term, its share price may take a hit as global banks make massive write-offs relating to the subprime exposure, but such knee-jerks should present buying opportunities.
On the property front, we like the retail and commercial sub-sectors, and believe that REITs like Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Suntec REIT will outperform both the market and its peers.
Media giant SPH has a few positive drivers in 2008 – a robust publishing business, higher retail property income and earnings coming through from its Sky@Eleven project, which was sold out shortly after its launch earlier this year. One of the biggest draws of SPH is its attractive yields.
Notwithstanding the high oil prices, transport companies also offer a good shelter for investors should the weather turn nasty in the US. We like SMRT for its organic growth and cost efficiencies. Ridership on its trains is expected to grow a healthy 6% in 2008 on the back of Singapore’s strong economy, which has bolstered employment and discretionary travel (eg shopping on weekends). While growth of 6% may not seem to be impressive, it actually is so due to cost efficiencies. For example, in its 2QFY08 results, revenue inched up 5%, but net profit actually jumped 25%.
Our picks for this theme encompasses the major components of the economy – banks, properties, media and transport – sharing a common trait: mouth-watering dividend yields, which lends support in times of uncertainty.
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Oil – Unrivalled stamina
“People seem almost more relaxed about US$100 than they were about US$60 or US$70 oil.” Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Association.
With raging demand from fast developing areas (particularly China), crude oil prices came close to US$100 per barrel in November 2007. A couple of years ago, most economists thought this psychological mark will send the global economy into a recession. In fact, high oil price, which is effectively a tax on consumers and businesses, crippled the US economy in 1970s and early 1980s.
However, the global economy has been expanding despite rising oil prices as we are far less dependent on oil in recent years compared to a decade ago due to energy efficiency. Moreover, the rise this time round was due to demand surge, rather than a supply crunch (as the case in the 1970s).
The jury’s still out on oil price trends, with forecasts ranging from US$70 to US$120 in 2008. However, one thing’s for sure – we will be living in an era of high oil prices and it will not revert to the US$24 per barrel 60-year average anytime soon.
Offshore & Marine industry will be a beneficiary of this rising tide. Order books running into billions of dollars are lockedin and run till 2011. The forex debacle at SembCorp Marine and Labroy Marine threw up some doubts on the industry’s internal controls and practices, but these cases seem to be the exception rather than the rule. We believe second-tier players like ASL Marine, Courage Marine and Tiong Woon Corp have the potential to outperform its industry peers in 2008.
ASL Marine is a fully integrated marine company with a strong focus in shipbuilding, shiprepair, shipchartering, and other marine related services, catering to customers mainly from Asia Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The strong demand for offshore oil and gas exploration activities is driving up orders for new support vessels. As a result, it is sitting on record ship building orders of S$670m. It is also riding on the back of booming infrastructure development in the Middle East.
Also benefiting from the Middle East is Tiong Woon, the crane provider which has grown both its onshore and offshore businesses. There is currently a global shortage of cranes and this has boosted the demand for the company’s cranes and haulage rates, which has been rising between 15-20% over the past 3 years.
Investors who are more prudent may want to consider Courage Marine, a dry bulk shipping company with dividend yield of close to 10%. Its fortunes have gone up in tandem with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has trebled since a year ago with a big surge in demand for the transportation of commodities to the world’s fastest growing economies – China and India.
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S-shares - QDII sweeps into Singapore
The Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme, which aims to liberalise Chinese investors’ investments abroad, will kick-off in 2008. This will boost the Singapore market, which has the highest concentration of China companies outside Greater China.
So far, 4 funds have been established, with mandates to invest in Hong Kong, US, Europe, Singapore and other emerging markets. Deutsche Bank’s joint venture Harvest Fund Management, for example, raised US$4b (S$6b) in October 2007 and will mainly invest in Hong Kong, Singapore and US-listed companies that derive at least 50% of their revenue from China. RMB1.5 trillion (S$300b) is estimated to flow through to overseas assets under the QDII
programme.
There are likely to be limits to the amount that each fund can place in a particular country, debunking any initial rumours that the bulk of the money will go into the Hong Kong market.
Given the sharp surge in Hong Kong, many would expect the market to be a lot more expensive compared to its Singapore peers. But not so, if we were to compare Singapore’s Prime Partners China Index with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI). On a forward PER basis, S-shares are only a touch cheaper than H-shares and based on current year earnings, S-shares appear to be more expensive. Locally, the best bargains are found in the lower market cap companies. For example, those with market capitalization of less than S$100m actually go for less than 10x prospective earnings.
However, QDII funds will likely seek the companies with larger market caps, ie those above S$1b. While the valuations appear rich compared to the Singapore market, it is inexpensive relative to their China-listed peers, which are commonly traded at twice the PER. As a group, the billion-dollar S-shares are trading at 34x FY07 and 22x FY08 PER.
9
Consumer stocks, which are riding on the back of a burgeoning middle class in China, will likely be big favourites. Among the big caps, we favour Synear Food Holdings, a quick freeze food products player with a national presence – one of the very few SGX-listed China company which can lay such a claim. As the exclusive frozen foods supplier to the upcoming Olympics, 2008 is set to be an exciting year for the company.
Also benefiting from the fervour and sentiments generated from Olympics is China Sports International. The company taps on the fast-growing domestic youth market in China, focusing on “value-for-money” products priced in the range of RMB150-250. With aggressive brand awareness programmes in the lower tiered cities, we expect earnings growth to be strong in the coming years.
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Food – The New Oil
For years, food prices have been getting cheaper and cheaper. But 2007 has been a turning point, with just about every crop and poultry under the sun hitting record or near-record levels. The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation’s food price index jumped 37% in 2007 over the first three-quarters of the year. Like oil, food prices have been rising on the back of growing demand from global consumers. There are two key reasons behind this phenomenon, one which is likely to prevail. First, developing nations are getting hungrier (actually greedier). Back in 1985, the average Chinese consumed 20kg of meat, but has since more than doubled his appetite to 50kg in 2007, thanks to an increasingly affluent society. This results in a greater demand for grain, which is used to feed the chickens, pigs and cows that we eat. But the middle class in developing countries has been growing steadily over the years, so why are prices surging only in 2007? A more important reason is biodiesel, which soaks up a third of US’ corn harvest. More farm land has, as a result, been devoted to corn, sacrificing other important crops like wheat and soybean. This has led to the upward spiral of all crops to lofty heights.
Billions of consumers globally, who have grown accustomed to sliding food prices since, will feel a big pinch on every grocery trip. Farmers, however, will finally reap what they have been sowing all these years. In the US, farmers’ take is expected to be 50% higher compared to the previous year. Payouts may not be as rich in Asia, but the next few years look brighter than anytime in the past few decades. While some of the money will be spent on a much deserved holiday,
the bulk of the earnings will be ploughed back on their farms to improve efficiencies and yields. The importance of agriculture is underscored by the concessions and subsidies given to farmers in key agriculture countries. China is a case in point. While it is taking steps to curb the overall growth of loans, it is actually encouraging banks to lend more for agricultural development.
China XLX, which produces fertilizers in China, will be a likely beneficiary. China is the world’s largest consumer of fertilizers, and its consumption represents approximately 30% of global production. The company has arguably one of the best cost structures in the industry and will stand to win in the event of a deregulation in the industry, which will accelerate M&A opportunities.
However, on valuation grounds, our pick within this sector is China Farm Equipment, the top manufacturer of farm harvesters in Hunan province. With agriculture being a key sector, the Chinese government has spearheaded initiatives to raise the efficiency through mechanisation. Farmers are given subsidies by the government, which encourages them to invest in new modern equipment.
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Technology – The Tortoise and the Horse
The technology sector has been underperforming the market since 2004. Many have placed their bets that 2007 was going to be a turnaround year, but the industry met with immensely testing challenges, including tepid demand growth and a free-falling US dollar. As a result, the SES Electronics Index fell 13% in 2007. However, this particular index is not the most accurate benchmark, as it is laden with stocks from the yesteryear, like GP Industries, IPC Corp, IDT Holdings, and Goldtron. In fact, the best performer among the 14 component stocks is an almost unknown company called Powermatic Data. Our own price-weighted index (we used a basket of 13 tech stocks that are more familiar to investors) suggests that the tech sector appreciated 8% in 2007, a better performance compared to the archaic SES Electronics Index but still pales in comparison to the STI.
With consumer confidence in the US slumping and the dollar digging deeper, tech industry’s fortunes appear to be even grimmer in 2008. But valuations have been beaten down to multi-year lows. Many of these stocks are trading at singledigit PERs, and this may result in more M&As (the tech industry accounted for more than half of 2007’s M&A transactions).
While we remain neutral on the sector, we recognize that a turn in consumer sentiments or US dollar may spark a rerating.
This may happen towards the later part of 2008. If so, the tech sector will be like the tortoise in Aesop’s Fables - slow at the start before catching up in the later part of the race.
We believe 2 stocks will do well in this ‘dark horse’ sector – electronics manufacturing services provider and tech bellwether Venture Corp as well as precision engineering specialist Armstrong Industrial.
Venture Corp, the largest tech manufacturer listed on SGX, is currently trading at just 10x prospective PER, which is as cheap as it gets. During the heady dotcom days, the one-time market darling was trading at close to 50x earnings. On top of slowing growth, investors have been worried about its collaterised debt obligations (CDO). However, from our understanding, its CDO holdings are not directly exposed to the US subprime market and are actually investment grade corporate bonds.
Foam and rubber specialist Armstrong Industrial Corp, on the other hand, is one of the fastest growing tech companies over the past 3 years, and has seen its share price more than double in 2007. We believe that there is still more room to run, driven by its focus on high margin rubber business. Despite the spurt in its share price, valuations are well-supported by its sound fundamentals.
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Alternative Energy - Climaxing with the Climate
I just checked my carbon footprint on the internet and realized that I produce a whopping 16 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, no thanks to the frequent business trips. That’s 30% higher than our national average of 12.2 tonnes and many times the global average of 4 tonnes. For the record, every being on the planet needs to bring it down to 2 tonnes to save the earth (good reason to tell my bosses that I need to fly less).
Indeed, climate is the talk of the town and hardly a day goes by without hearing about global warming, Kyoto protocol and carbon credits. It is set to get big in Singapore, and will be the talking point for years to come. However, there have been some initial glitches.
Getting burnt from solar. Solar may be the next big thing, but investors will have to exercise loads of caution when buying into such companies. Equation Corp, formerly known as HeShe Holdings, panned a US$150m deal to manufacture solar panels using thin film amorphous silicon technology. This comes barely a month after Rowsley called off its S$2.7b deal to acquire Perfect Field, a manufacturer of thin-film solar panels. It came with a profit guarantee of S$300m per year from FY2008-2010, no mean feat considering that the company eked out less than S$5m a year ago.
Carbon credits yet to take off. There has also been a lot of talk on carbon credits lately. ecoWise Holdings inked a deal to sell 95,000 carbon credits, or Certified Emission Requirements (CER) to Kansai Electric Power, Japan’s second-largest utility company, becoming the first SGX-listed player to sell carbon credits from a renewable energy project.
Commodities trader Noble Group has also established a carbon credit division which is reportedly the largest trader of CER, with a global market share of 15-20%. Oculus, previously a contact lens maker, has dropped initial plans to acquire China hydropower plants in favour of a reverse takeover with Aretae Pte Ltd, an environmental solutions company dealing with carbon credits.
Biofuels fired up. With oil prices hitting record levels, the demand outlook for biofuels have also picked up. This has resulted in palm oil – the world’s most consumed vegetable oil and the most economical – rising 55% in the first 11 months of 2007 to hit lifetime highs. This is a boon for feedstock providers, but a bane for the refiners. Plantation owners like Wilmar and Golden-Agri Resources were the darlings of the stock market, growing to become one of the largest companies on the SGX. On the flip side, companies like Advanced Holdings, which intended to produce biofuels, have pushed back plans indefinitely as a result of the rapidly rising feedstock prices.
As this report goes to print, SGX-listed Enviro-Hub Holdings announced that it will be building a S$50m plant to convert plastic waste into useable fuels and gases. Investors should be patient and wait for results before committing to companies with seemingly exciting new ideas. Climate-related companies will be a recurring theme in years to come, but investors will need to be selective and base their investments on fundamentals and valuations, rather than hope and
hype.
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SWFs on the Prowl
In the past 2 years, it was the private equity funds that were making the noise in the market, snapping up company after company. In the coming years, it will be sovereign wealth funds (SWF) or state-owned funds like Temasek Holdings which will steal the limelight.
The top 10 SWFs hold between US$32b and US$875b. Collectively, the 48 SWFs from over 40 countries are estimated to have US$2.5-3 trillion worth of funds (already more than hedge funds’ US$1.6 trillion), and this is expected to balloon to US$12-15 trillion by 2015. Even states like Libya and Iran, not exactly the poster boys of international finance, are rumoured to be in the process of establishing sovereign funds. With the subprime crisis taking a tremendous toll on banks, these funds have snapped up significant stakes in venerable names like Citi, UBS,Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
Top Sovereign Funds
UAE ADIA 875
Singapore GIC 330
Saudi Arabia Various funds 300
Norway Government Pension Fund 300
China China Investment Corp 300
Singapore Temasek Holdings 100
Kuwait Kuwait Investment Authority 70
Australia Australian Future Fund 40
US (Alaska) Permanent Fund Corp 35
Russia Stabilisation Fund 32
Source: Economist
The world’s entire supply of shares and bonds stand at approximately US$55 trillion each. SWFs, with trillions on hand, are likely to go shopping for key assets. With fears that these funds will be making purchases for political reasons rather than economic ones (Middle East and China, in particular), Europe and the US are pushing for stronger regulations and greater transparency. This may push funds away from the West and into Asian assets. Singapore, renowned for its high level of corporate governance and transparency, is home to quality companies with solid balance sheets. These should be good enough for some of the oil money and dragon dollars to look our way.
Given that Southeast Asia is expected to grow in the next few years, SWF’s may seek blue-chip Singapore companies with an entrenched presence in the region. SingTel and DBS have already been invited to a “get-to-know-you” conference organized by Dubai International Capital, a US$12b private fund of Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohd Maktoum.
Who’s next?
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Final Analysis
The mood heading into the New Year is more sombre than anytime in the last 5 years, no thanks to an ailing US economy, the prevailing subprime crisis, high commodity prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, we believe the market may have overreacted in the last 2 months of the year, and this has created buying opportunities. From our estimates, the STI has the ability to rise as much as 16% from the current 3,357 to hit 3,903 by the end of 2008. Driving the market will be the domestic defensives, offshore & marine sector as well as selected China-based companies.
Technology sector may turn out to be a sleeper hit towards the end of the year, assuming the US economy does not capitulate.
The tunnel ahead may be a little darker than before, but hopefully our strategy piece has shed some light and make investing a lot less daunting. For a more detailed analysis of key sectors and stocks, read on. Have a great investing year ahead!
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