避免落入价值陷阱、寻找到安全边际的关键在于不能简单地从过去的经验出发，要对公司未来的业绩有着清晰的认识和预期。巴菲特将这种基于过去经验的投资称之为 “ 后视镜投资 ” （注：柏拉图化），永远只看见后方，而不能看见未来。深入了解公司的基本面，进行理性的分析，是给予公司内在价值合理评估和把握安全边际进行投资的重要前提。
在之前的两篇价值投资准则中，我们提到了安全边际和内在价值的概念。由于对股票的内在价值的计算是不能够精确的，因此足够的安全边际就显得十分重要。
投资者要明白，并不是股票的价格看起来足够便宜就意味着足够的安全边际，很多时候便宜的股价往往是因为公司的管理和盈利出现了问题，或者公司的业务属于高风险行业。为了对这个问题进行比较清楚的阐述，我们引入一个概念 “ 价值陷阱 ” ，不少寻找安全边际的投资者经常陷入其中。
我们在之前的文章曾经提到过商店打折销售的情况，200块的商品以100块的折扣价格销售，这种100块的销售有两种情况：第一种是真正的促销季节，以5折出售，这种情形类似投资中的安全边际；第二种是该商品被发现出现了瑕疵，以5折出售，这种情况下的100块已经不是真正的折扣出售了，而是因为本身的瑕疵导致商品价值的降低，就像我们上面提到的股票价格便宜是因为公司出现了问题，这时候看起来50%的空间提供了足够安全边际，而事实上根本没有安全边际，再促销的时候，这种商品可能就会卖50块了。遇到这种情形，投资者没有获得安全边际，反而陷入了价值陷阱之中。表面上公司的股价被低估，是很好的投资机会，实际上根本没有明显的投资潜力。
虽然价值投资者信奉市场是会犯错误的，但市场经常是正确的。一旦发现了某些看似非常便宜的股票，投资者反应不该是立即买入，因为这种便宜的印象往往是根据过去一段时期股价的表现得出的。投资者需要做的事情是去了解相应的上市公司是否出现了问题，是管理问题、业绩下滑或者是经营风险放大。要对安全边际和价值陷阱进行判别，首先要做的是去确定股票的内在价值。
除去市场大面积的情绪化波动带来的机会之外，在一般的情况下，市场什么时候会给予公司股票错误的价格或者低估股票的价值呢？
1、市场过于关注公司短期的业绩表现而无视公司长期的业绩潜力。这种情况经常发生在公司的短期业绩出现较大幅度的下滑，像季报、半年报或者一年的业绩出现大幅的下滑。而公司真实的基本面显示业绩下滑仅仅是短期的困难所致，或者业务景气刚好处于谷底，这种情况往往会为长期投资者提供足够的安全边际。
2、对公司存在巨大的不确定性。这是莫尼什-帕伯莱*投资方法中的基础。他的观点简单概括起来是：投资者对公司的业务状况存在重大不确定时所做出的反应和面对该公司实际发生严重风险的反应一样 - 恐慌。而这种恐慌经常为确信的投资者创造安全边际。
3、投资者对公司业务的了解不够清楚。这种情况常常发生在行业中，在一个行业背景下不同公司的细分市场和定位往往是存在区别，这意味着并非所有的公司对行业负面情况都会有一致的业绩反应。但当这种行业状况发生时，由于大量此类投资者的存在，会使得部分业绩不受影响的公司股价也受整个行业的影响而下跌，从而形成安全边际。
避免落入价值陷阱、寻找到安全边际的关键在于不能简单地从过去的经验出发，要对公司未来的业绩有着清晰的认识和预期。巴菲特将这种基于过去经验的投资称之为 “ 后视镜投资 ” ，永远只看见后方，而不能看见未来。深入了解公司的基本面，进行理性的分析，是给予公司内在价值合理评估和把握安全边际进行投资的重要前提。
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Z-OBEE: Trading 65% below Net Asset Value
Mr Wang, the chairman, has a master's degree in engineering from the University of New South Wales. We set off to their factory at Xixiang Street, Jingangshan Industrial Zone, Baoan District.
Z-OBEE started off as an investment holding company in September 2002 dealing mainly in procurement and trading of electric components and mobile handsets. It ventured into PCB design solutions in 2004 and by 2006, it was able to provide full-set solutions - from product definition to production support.
To capitalise on the growth of the mobile handset industry, Z-OBEE acquired other design solutions house, Zeus, and established subsidiaries like PhoneLink and CCDH between 2004 and 2006.
Currently, PhoneLink focuses on developing 3G handset solutions while CCHD and Zeus focus on GSM solutions for different IC platforms. To differentiate itself from competitors, Z-OBEE expanded its range of services to offer customers a one-stop service solution, which includes the entire process from design to production of mobile handsets.
In March 2006, a joint venture company, Zhenhua OBEE, was established together with Zhenhua Technology and Full Wealth.
Zhenhua Technology is a licensed mobile handset manufacturer listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Mobile handsets designed by Z-OBEE can be manufactured by the Zhenhua Group and sold under the registered handset brand name of Zhenhua Technology by Z-OBEE’s distribution customers.
To strengthen its capabilities as a one-stop service centre and to improve its cost competitiveness, Tongqing Communication Equipment was established in March 2007 to provide PCBA and the assembly of semi-finished handsets.
Z-OBEE was listed on Singapore Exchange on 21 Nov 2007 at an IPO price of S$0.34, and 129.0m shares were offered, of which 88.0m were new shares and 41.0m vendor shares.
Stock has slumped from 34 cents at IPO about a year ago to 5.5 cents recently.
The NEW Z-OBEE
At the factory, Mr Mao Hong Jian, the Executive Deputy General Manager, gave us a presentation and showed us around. We were told that the new Z-OBEE is a mobile handset solutions house that can provide either full-set solutions service or a specific service at a specific stage, based on customers’ requirements.
Its full-set solutions service comprises the entire handset design cycle, which includes industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support, and assembly of PCBA and completed handsets.
Z-OBEE serves two major groups of customers:
1) Licensed mobile handset manufacturer customers
Z-OBEE provides solutions mainly in the form of ID/MD and PCB Assembly (PCBA) to these customers who procure the hardware components, assemble the handsets and sell them under their brand names.
2) Mobile handset distributor customers
Z-OBEE provides handset designs and also procurement and production support services to distributors who cooperate with licensed mobile handset manufacturers to manufacture and sell their mobile handsets under manufacturers’ brands. Z-OBEE's production facilities are placed in Shenzhen under Tongqing and Zhenhua Obee.
Tongqing
To expand the capacity in providing one-stop solutions, Z-OBEE established Tongqing, a wholly foreign-owned entity in Shenzhen. In the past, Tongqing did not possess a mobile handset manufacturing license and did not engage in the manufacture of finished handsets. Instead, Tongqing engages in providing subcontracted manufacturing services for hardware used in mobile handsets (mainly PCBA) and assembling semi-finished handsets.
As the PRC government has announced the abolishment of the licensing for handset manufacturing business in late 2007, Z-OBEE can provide finished handset assembly services and sell its own brandname handsets.
The factory and office premises of Tongqing are located on a leased premise in Shenzhen, PRC, with a GFA of approximately 7,872 sq m.
Currently, Tongqing has five SMT lines with a total annual capacity of approximately five million pieces of PCBA. The five lines (Fuji brand) were bought last year, each costing USD 1 million. Mr Mao explained that the current utilization rate is around 70%. Tongqing also has five handset assembly lines, which can assemble approximately 2.4 million units of semi-finished handsets per annum. The factory commenced operations in August 2007.
Zhenhua Obee
The group’s joint venture vehicle, Zhenhua Obee, in which Z-OBEE has a 42% shareholding interest, has two SMT lines to carry out PCBA operations with a combined annual capacity of approximately 2.4 million units of PCBA. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are leased to and operated by Zhenhua Communication for a term of three years ending on 30 April 2009 for a monthly rental of RMB 314k. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are located in Shenzhen, PRC.
Z-OBEE management is determined to create value for the PRC mobile handset industry. Photo by Mephisto
Large growth potential in the PRC mobile handset industry
China is the world’s largest mobile handset market. According to CCID Consulting, the sales volume in China was 150 million units in 2007 or 24.1% above that of 2006. If black-market mobiles from smuggled, unregistered brands and other illegal products were included, the figure would have exceeded 200 million units.
In addition, over 60% of users changed their mobiles with over 90 million mobiles sold for this purpose. The reasons could be faster function upgrades, higher performance-price ratio, shorter product life cycle, and customized service by the network operators.
The latest report from CCID: Mobile phone sales in China hit a new high of 43.05 million sets or RMB$49b in the first quarter of 2008, up 4.02% YoY and 7.22% QoQ respectively, due mainly to the year-end and Spring Festival promotions launched by mobile phone retailers.
The sales volume is expected to hit 180 million units by the end of the year, representing an expected growth of 20%. Foreign brands gained 65% of the mobile phone market in China in 1Q08, slightly down from 67.5% in the same period of last year. Thus, local players like Z-OBEE have a lot of opportunity to wrestle market share from the foreign brands.
From 2001 to 2007, the number of subscribers grew from 145.2 million to 547.3 million, at a CAGR of 24.7%. In 2007, the number of new subscriber reached a new record in recent years with over 86 million new subscribers. This works out to over seven million new subscribers per month.
The Ministry of Industry and Information recently reported that the number of mobile phone subscribers in China has risen to more than 616 million by Aug 2008, a huge 68.7 million more subscribers than that at the end of 2007. Additionally, the telecom industry produced revenue of RMB$194.1 billion, up 10.8% YoY.
The average number of mobile handsets held by per 100 persons in China is relatively low at 41.6 units (or penetration rate of 41.6%), compared to 80 units held by per 100 persons (penetration rate of 80%) in mature markets. Therefore, many industry players believe there is still great potential for expansion in China, which in turn is likely to increase the demand for mobile handsets.
Business Strategies and Future Plans.
I asked Mr Wang, why he chose to compete in an industry dominated by local and foreign big boys. According to CCID Consulting, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson still dominate the mobile phone market in the world’s fastest growing economy and account for more than 70% of all mobile phones sold there during the first half of this year.
During the first six months, around 295 million mobile phones were produced in China, and the figure is expected to exceed half a billion till the year’s end. Mr Wang replied with a laugh that this was exactly the reason he moved into this market. He has a corporate vision to become a leading mobile handset solutions provider with the brand name “OBEE” that offers services ranging from product definition, solutions design to production support, and to develop Z-OBEE's brandname handsets.
With this in mind, he has set out a number of strategies and future plans. Firstly, the group has plans to enhance its product development capabilities consistently and increase the size of its R&D team.
Secondly, he also intends to enlarge the product mix, enhance the efficiency of existing production facilities and penetrate overseas markets by setting up sales offices or forming strategic alliances. A Hong Kong marketing team was set up in early 2008 to penetrate the South Asia market.
Thirdly, Z-OBEE will develop a flagship brandname for the sales and marketing of its proprietary handsets.
Trading 65% Below NAV
At its last done price of 5.5 cents, Z-OBEE’s market capitalization was S$27.4 million, which is about 35% of its NAV (15 Singapore cents). It is trading at 2x FY2008 (March YE) earnings.
US$’ million 2007 2008 1Q2009
Revenue 46.3 119.6 37.6
Operating expenses -2.0 -5.8 -1.3
EBITDA 8.7 11.5 3.1
Profit before taxation 9.3 10.9
Net Profit 8.8 10.1 1.9
Number of shares (’million) 409.6 497.6 497.6
NAV 12.7 51.6 53.9
Current Liabilities 3.7 16.8 29.8
Non-current Liabilities 3.6 2.9 2.6
Cash and cash equivalents 4.4 19.1 10.8
Financial Ratios
Debtors turnover (days) 30.7 73.4 --
Stock turnover (days) 21.1 22.8 --
Creditor turnover (days) 3.7 23.6 --
The management guided that there will be minimal capex in 2009/2010. While there are some other developments going on con-currently, the use of additional capex is kept at a minimum. Small cap stocks tend to have high beta in volatile markets. But if there is one small cap which looks like it can withstand this market winter, it is Z-OBEE, which may well turn out to be a winner.
Z-OBEE started off as an investment holding company in September 2002 dealing mainly in procurement and trading of electric components and mobile handsets. It ventured into PCB design solutions in 2004 and by 2006, it was able to provide full-set solutions - from product definition to production support.
To capitalise on the growth of the mobile handset industry, Z-OBEE acquired other design solutions house, Zeus, and established subsidiaries like PhoneLink and CCDH between 2004 and 2006.
Currently, PhoneLink focuses on developing 3G handset solutions while CCHD and Zeus focus on GSM solutions for different IC platforms. To differentiate itself from competitors, Z-OBEE expanded its range of services to offer customers a one-stop service solution, which includes the entire process from design to production of mobile handsets.
In March 2006, a joint venture company, Zhenhua OBEE, was established together with Zhenhua Technology and Full Wealth.
Zhenhua Technology is a licensed mobile handset manufacturer listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Mobile handsets designed by Z-OBEE can be manufactured by the Zhenhua Group and sold under the registered handset brand name of Zhenhua Technology by Z-OBEE’s distribution customers.
To strengthen its capabilities as a one-stop service centre and to improve its cost competitiveness, Tongqing Communication Equipment was established in March 2007 to provide PCBA and the assembly of semi-finished handsets.
Z-OBEE was listed on Singapore Exchange on 21 Nov 2007 at an IPO price of S$0.34, and 129.0m shares were offered, of which 88.0m were new shares and 41.0m vendor shares.
Stock has slumped from 34 cents at IPO about a year ago to 5.5 cents recently.
The NEW Z-OBEE
At the factory, Mr Mao Hong Jian, the Executive Deputy General Manager, gave us a presentation and showed us around. We were told that the new Z-OBEE is a mobile handset solutions house that can provide either full-set solutions service or a specific service at a specific stage, based on customers’ requirements.
Its full-set solutions service comprises the entire handset design cycle, which includes industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support, and assembly of PCBA and completed handsets.
Z-OBEE serves two major groups of customers:
1) Licensed mobile handset manufacturer customers
Z-OBEE provides solutions mainly in the form of ID/MD and PCB Assembly (PCBA) to these customers who procure the hardware components, assemble the handsets and sell them under their brand names.
2) Mobile handset distributor customers
Z-OBEE provides handset designs and also procurement and production support services to distributors who cooperate with licensed mobile handset manufacturers to manufacture and sell their mobile handsets under manufacturers’ brands. Z-OBEE's production facilities are placed in Shenzhen under Tongqing and Zhenhua Obee.
Tongqing
To expand the capacity in providing one-stop solutions, Z-OBEE established Tongqing, a wholly foreign-owned entity in Shenzhen. In the past, Tongqing did not possess a mobile handset manufacturing license and did not engage in the manufacture of finished handsets. Instead, Tongqing engages in providing subcontracted manufacturing services for hardware used in mobile handsets (mainly PCBA) and assembling semi-finished handsets.
As the PRC government has announced the abolishment of the licensing for handset manufacturing business in late 2007, Z-OBEE can provide finished handset assembly services and sell its own brandname handsets.
The factory and office premises of Tongqing are located on a leased premise in Shenzhen, PRC, with a GFA of approximately 7,872 sq m.
Currently, Tongqing has five SMT lines with a total annual capacity of approximately five million pieces of PCBA. The five lines (Fuji brand) were bought last year, each costing USD 1 million. Mr Mao explained that the current utilization rate is around 70%. Tongqing also has five handset assembly lines, which can assemble approximately 2.4 million units of semi-finished handsets per annum. The factory commenced operations in August 2007.
Zhenhua Obee
The group’s joint venture vehicle, Zhenhua Obee, in which Z-OBEE has a 42% shareholding interest, has two SMT lines to carry out PCBA operations with a combined annual capacity of approximately 2.4 million units of PCBA. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are leased to and operated by Zhenhua Communication for a term of three years ending on 30 April 2009 for a monthly rental of RMB 314k. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are located in Shenzhen, PRC.
Z-OBEE management is determined to create value for the PRC mobile handset industry. Photo by Mephisto
Large growth potential in the PRC mobile handset industry
China is the world’s largest mobile handset market. According to CCID Consulting, the sales volume in China was 150 million units in 2007 or 24.1% above that of 2006. If black-market mobiles from smuggled, unregistered brands and other illegal products were included, the figure would have exceeded 200 million units.
In addition, over 60% of users changed their mobiles with over 90 million mobiles sold for this purpose. The reasons could be faster function upgrades, higher performance-price ratio, shorter product life cycle, and customized service by the network operators.
The latest report from CCID: Mobile phone sales in China hit a new high of 43.05 million sets or RMB$49b in the first quarter of 2008, up 4.02% YoY and 7.22% QoQ respectively, due mainly to the year-end and Spring Festival promotions launched by mobile phone retailers.
The sales volume is expected to hit 180 million units by the end of the year, representing an expected growth of 20%. Foreign brands gained 65% of the mobile phone market in China in 1Q08, slightly down from 67.5% in the same period of last year. Thus, local players like Z-OBEE have a lot of opportunity to wrestle market share from the foreign brands.
From 2001 to 2007, the number of subscribers grew from 145.2 million to 547.3 million, at a CAGR of 24.7%. In 2007, the number of new subscriber reached a new record in recent years with over 86 million new subscribers. This works out to over seven million new subscribers per month.
The Ministry of Industry and Information recently reported that the number of mobile phone subscribers in China has risen to more than 616 million by Aug 2008, a huge 68.7 million more subscribers than that at the end of 2007. Additionally, the telecom industry produced revenue of RMB$194.1 billion, up 10.8% YoY.
The average number of mobile handsets held by per 100 persons in China is relatively low at 41.6 units (or penetration rate of 41.6%), compared to 80 units held by per 100 persons (penetration rate of 80%) in mature markets. Therefore, many industry players believe there is still great potential for expansion in China, which in turn is likely to increase the demand for mobile handsets.
Business Strategies and Future Plans.
I asked Mr Wang, why he chose to compete in an industry dominated by local and foreign big boys. According to CCID Consulting, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson still dominate the mobile phone market in the world’s fastest growing economy and account for more than 70% of all mobile phones sold there during the first half of this year.
During the first six months, around 295 million mobile phones were produced in China, and the figure is expected to exceed half a billion till the year’s end. Mr Wang replied with a laugh that this was exactly the reason he moved into this market. He has a corporate vision to become a leading mobile handset solutions provider with the brand name “OBEE” that offers services ranging from product definition, solutions design to production support, and to develop Z-OBEE's brandname handsets.
With this in mind, he has set out a number of strategies and future plans. Firstly, the group has plans to enhance its product development capabilities consistently and increase the size of its R&D team.
Secondly, he also intends to enlarge the product mix, enhance the efficiency of existing production facilities and penetrate overseas markets by setting up sales offices or forming strategic alliances. A Hong Kong marketing team was set up in early 2008 to penetrate the South Asia market.
Thirdly, Z-OBEE will develop a flagship brandname for the sales and marketing of its proprietary handsets.
Trading 65% Below NAV
At its last done price of 5.5 cents, Z-OBEE’s market capitalization was S$27.4 million, which is about 35% of its NAV (15 Singapore cents). It is trading at 2x FY2008 (March YE) earnings.
US$’ million 2007 2008 1Q2009
Revenue 46.3 119.6 37.6
Operating expenses -2.0 -5.8 -1.3
EBITDA 8.7 11.5 3.1
Profit before taxation 9.3 10.9
Net Profit 8.8 10.1 1.9
Number of shares (’million) 409.6 497.6 497.6
NAV 12.7 51.6 53.9
Current Liabilities 3.7 16.8 29.8
Non-current Liabilities 3.6 2.9 2.6
Cash and cash equivalents 4.4 19.1 10.8
Financial Ratios
Debtors turnover (days) 30.7 73.4 --
Stock turnover (days) 21.1 22.8 --
Creditor turnover (days) 3.7 23.6 --
The management guided that there will be minimal capex in 2009/2010. While there are some other developments going on con-currently, the use of additional capex is kept at a minimum. Small cap stocks tend to have high beta in volatile markets. But if there is one small cap which looks like it can withstand this market winter, it is Z-OBEE, which may well turn out to be a winner.
BENJAMIN CHAN: "I'm a focused investor"
RECENTLY, PRIOR to a briefing Man Wah Holdings held on its latest financial performance, Benjamin Chan, 42, asked to be allowed to attend. He was not the target audience – that is, analysts and fund managers – but he was a very interested individual as he held a substantial stake of the stock.
In fact, Man Wah, a China-based sofa manufacturer, is the biggest holding in his portfolio. Having gained entry to the briefing at Republic Plaza, Benjamin, an actuary with an international reinsurer, made the most of it by asking question after question – instead of being contented with the 65 per cent jump in net profit which Man Wah had just unveiled for the first quarter of its new financial year ended June 30.
Even after the question-and-answer session ended and attendees started to leave, he was not done yet. Benjamin lingered behind with a few equally interested analysts and fund managers to speak with Man Wah’s finance director, Francis Lee – just so he could understand the business a little better.
It was at that event that I first met Benjamin. The one thing about him which people sooner or later sense is that he is very good with numbers, which in turn suggests that he has some key tools to analyse businesses and pick good stocks.
He says he has been good with numbers since his student days in Hong Kong, where he was born. But his overall academic results were just average and he didn’t secure a place in Hong Kong universities. So, despite not coming from a well-to-do family, he was able to head to New Zealand where, as luck would have it, foreign students paid the same fees as locals of about NZD 1,000 a year.
There, he “learnt to focus on studies and excelled in them. The discipline I developed during university years continue to help me in my actuarial career, which has one of the toughest professional exams in the world.”
Benjamin, a Singaporean citizen for the last 15 years, is married with a son, Bryan, 11, and daughter, Felicia, 13. His wife, Fiona, a Singaporean too, is a senior bank executive. The couple met in New Zealand during their undergraduate days, and now live in a condominium in Upper Bukit Timah.
Q: In this bear market, is your investment portfolio holding up well?
A: It’s down 50% from its peak in Oct 2007, though I still have a high single digit annual return since 2003 when I first moved to the value-investing approach. It is one thing to read about Mr Market (in Intelligent Investor and frequently quoted by Warren Buffett), but it is another thing to truly experience it like what we all are doing now. The emotional roller coaster can be overwhelming in a bear market.
Q: What have you been doing of late in the market? Buying or selling, or just sitting tight?
A: Sitting tight. I am paying particular attention to various companies’ business moats during this difficult time. I am talking about the operating environment the companies are in such as rising costs, the strengthening of yuan hitting export sales, and cut in export tax rebate. It is crucial to differentiate those who can maintain margins in this environment. If they can maintain their margins, there must be a moat around the company. This analysis will help to re-arrange my portfolio.
Q: Dangerous question: When do you think the Singapore market will bottom and start to recover?
A: The Singapore market is influenced by foreign fund movement. So I think it will recover when they come back to the market. I just don’t know when. No one can consistently predict the market. If I had been able to forsee the plunge in share prices, I would have sold all my holdings in Oct 2007!
Ben was born in HK and studied in New Zealand at a time when foreign students paid only NZD1,000 a year.
Q: What are your five key holdings and what percentage do they collectively represent in your portfolio?
A: They are Man Wah Holdings, Hongwei Technologies, Celestial Nutrifoods, Full Apex and Fung Choi Media. They represent 75% of my stock portfolio. You can tell that I am a focused investor!
Q: You are evidently keen on S-chips? Why?
A: It is not S-chips I am after but small caps. It just happens S-chips offer better value in Singapore – that is, they have low price-earnings ratios and high returns on equity. I am looking for multi-baggers and they are typically small caps. Also, over the long run it has been demonstrated that small caps outperform large caps and value investing outperforms other investment styles. As a result, a combination small cap and value should outperform other investment styles.
Having said that, there is a PE discount for China companies listed in SGX vis-a-vis their counterparts in China and Hong Kong. One of the reasons is that S-chips are on average much smaller in size than those in China and HK. This difference of valuation also makes S-chips attractive to me.
Q: When did you start investing and what led you to it?
A: About 10 years ago, my wife and I finished paying off the mortgage on our home. We came to recognise that with a long-term timeframe, investing in stocks is a good way to build up a nest egg. I had invested in unit trusts for a couple of years but eventually I realised that fund managers and unit holders are usually not aligned since most funds are structured with a fixed regular asset charge independent of fund performance.
One can argue that the better the fund performance, the higher the asset value, hence the higher the charge collected, but this is only a secondary effect. The point here is even though unit holders suffer losses, fund managers still take a cut from the assets under management. In addition, unit trusts usually charge large fees and invest in large caps which prevent them from outperforming.
Q: How different is your investment approach now compared with when you started putting money in stocks 10 years ago?
A: When I started, I wasn’t investing but simply speculating, hoping for a quick return. A 5-20% gain for each trade would be satisfying enough, though I wasn’t trading frequently and had never used margin financing for Singapore stocks.
I did use margin financing during the dot-com period via a US Internet trading account but the amount was relatively small. I eventually lost 95% of my capital and learnt a good lesson. Ironically, I didn’t look at fundamentals at all then despite my actuarial training.
I don’t use margin in investing, and have never sold short in Singapore. Debt and patience cannot mix.
Q: Was there any unforgettable experience arising from doing hard research and investing longer term?
A: My first move to value investing was with the stock of Jardine C&C. I accumulated it from 2002 to 2004. This was the first stock whose fundamentals I studied closely and did a lot of research on the Web. During this period, the stock price did not move much even though the fundamentals were improving.
I learnt that Indonesia car sales were increasing every month by checking Yahoo news on Astra every night, and as Astra has half the market, Jardine C&C’s profit result was bound to be good. So I kept adding shares to my holding when I had spare cash. My experience of holding C&C led me to change my investment style to holding a stock beyond a 5-20% gain. In 2005, I sold all when the Indonesian car market started to slow down. By then, my gain was more than 130%! I was very happy as it was a big gain to me in dollar terms at that time.
Ben has made more than 100% gains on MMI and Sembawang Kimtrans in the past.
Q: Sorry to interrupt, but can you give an idea of the gain?
A: Short of $400,000 – well, $386,000 to be exact. I could fully appreciate the inefficiency of the market in the sense that information of C&C fundamentals was there and yet this information was not fully recognised for a long time. The key lesson I learnt was that having the knowledge and information on a stock gives me an advantage in the marketplace.
During this period, I started to read investment books especially classic like Intelligent Investor, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Essays of Warren Buffett. I began to understand that buying stock is like buying a portion of the business.
Q: Since selling Jardine C&C, was there any stock that you made big gains on?
A: There was MMI, which returned 141% and Sembawang Kimtrans, a 131% gain. My top 3 holdings now are Man Wah, Hongwei, and Celestial Nutrifoods - they are the multi-baggers in waiting, I hope. My gain on Celestial Nutrifoods did reach 300% - from 50 cents to $2 - at its peak in 2006 due mainly to PE expansion but I reckoned the price was still below the stock’s intrinsic value then so I didn’t sell. The business has been improving but the price-earnings ratio simply contracted as the market fell.
Q: How, if at all, does your training and work experience as an actuary help in your stock picking?
A: Probabilistic thinking, discount cash flow and long-term thinking are the core components of actuarial science. These are the tools most appropriate for investing. Like Warren Buffett, I don't do exact calculations of intrinsic value using discount cash flow, but roughly I can see a PE of 4-8x is attractive. The very high analytic skills and a sharp and quick mind every actuary has also help in research and analysing companies and business.
Q: Do you invest your wife’s savings as well? Given the financial nature of her work, does she have any investing skills or ideas to chip in?
A: Our savings are pooled. Some are under her name and some are under mine. I do the research and come up with recommendations – but all decisions are agreed jointly.
A very good book on investing.
Q: Earlier you talked about reading investment books. What’s a new solid book that you can recommend?
A: I have read almost all the classic investing books and I think most of the good stuff on investing has already been written. A recent book by Pat Dorsey (The Little Book that Builds Wealth) is a very good one. It focuses on business moats. I think they are the key to investment success and I have to admit that some of my stocks don't have many moats and I plan to let go some when the market turns.
Q: Let’s talk a bit about lifestyle: I guess you would be what is termed a high net-worth investor. Is yours a glittering lifestyle?
A: My lifestyle has not changed much in the last five years. I feel that how much money you have need not affect your lifestyle. My family shop and eat at the same places as before, and, predictable as it sounds, do the same things most Singaporeans do – that is, shop, watch TV and movies, for example. The only big-ticket item is travel, and we usually try to go on one long and one short trip a year.
The only difference is that in the past few years, I have developed a habit of spending one to two hours a night to go through a routine, which is:
- Check company announcements on the SGX website pertaining to my stocks.
- Check announcements for stocks on my watch list.
- Visit news and research websites to find out industry trends for some raw materials, etc.
- Visit some investment blogs and websites, both local and overseas.
- Occasionally do Google searches for information on my stocks.
In fact, Man Wah, a China-based sofa manufacturer, is the biggest holding in his portfolio. Having gained entry to the briefing at Republic Plaza, Benjamin, an actuary with an international reinsurer, made the most of it by asking question after question – instead of being contented with the 65 per cent jump in net profit which Man Wah had just unveiled for the first quarter of its new financial year ended June 30.
Even after the question-and-answer session ended and attendees started to leave, he was not done yet. Benjamin lingered behind with a few equally interested analysts and fund managers to speak with Man Wah’s finance director, Francis Lee – just so he could understand the business a little better.
It was at that event that I first met Benjamin. The one thing about him which people sooner or later sense is that he is very good with numbers, which in turn suggests that he has some key tools to analyse businesses and pick good stocks.
He says he has been good with numbers since his student days in Hong Kong, where he was born. But his overall academic results were just average and he didn’t secure a place in Hong Kong universities. So, despite not coming from a well-to-do family, he was able to head to New Zealand where, as luck would have it, foreign students paid the same fees as locals of about NZD 1,000 a year.
There, he “learnt to focus on studies and excelled in them. The discipline I developed during university years continue to help me in my actuarial career, which has one of the toughest professional exams in the world.”
Benjamin, a Singaporean citizen for the last 15 years, is married with a son, Bryan, 11, and daughter, Felicia, 13. His wife, Fiona, a Singaporean too, is a senior bank executive. The couple met in New Zealand during their undergraduate days, and now live in a condominium in Upper Bukit Timah.
Q: In this bear market, is your investment portfolio holding up well?
A: It’s down 50% from its peak in Oct 2007, though I still have a high single digit annual return since 2003 when I first moved to the value-investing approach. It is one thing to read about Mr Market (in Intelligent Investor and frequently quoted by Warren Buffett), but it is another thing to truly experience it like what we all are doing now. The emotional roller coaster can be overwhelming in a bear market.
Q: What have you been doing of late in the market? Buying or selling, or just sitting tight?
A: Sitting tight. I am paying particular attention to various companies’ business moats during this difficult time. I am talking about the operating environment the companies are in such as rising costs, the strengthening of yuan hitting export sales, and cut in export tax rebate. It is crucial to differentiate those who can maintain margins in this environment. If they can maintain their margins, there must be a moat around the company. This analysis will help to re-arrange my portfolio.
Q: Dangerous question: When do you think the Singapore market will bottom and start to recover?
A: The Singapore market is influenced by foreign fund movement. So I think it will recover when they come back to the market. I just don’t know when. No one can consistently predict the market. If I had been able to forsee the plunge in share prices, I would have sold all my holdings in Oct 2007!
Ben was born in HK and studied in New Zealand at a time when foreign students paid only NZD1,000 a year.
Q: What are your five key holdings and what percentage do they collectively represent in your portfolio?
A: They are Man Wah Holdings, Hongwei Technologies, Celestial Nutrifoods, Full Apex and Fung Choi Media. They represent 75% of my stock portfolio. You can tell that I am a focused investor!
Q: You are evidently keen on S-chips? Why?
A: It is not S-chips I am after but small caps. It just happens S-chips offer better value in Singapore – that is, they have low price-earnings ratios and high returns on equity. I am looking for multi-baggers and they are typically small caps. Also, over the long run it has been demonstrated that small caps outperform large caps and value investing outperforms other investment styles. As a result, a combination small cap and value should outperform other investment styles.
Having said that, there is a PE discount for China companies listed in SGX vis-a-vis their counterparts in China and Hong Kong. One of the reasons is that S-chips are on average much smaller in size than those in China and HK. This difference of valuation also makes S-chips attractive to me.
Q: When did you start investing and what led you to it?
A: About 10 years ago, my wife and I finished paying off the mortgage on our home. We came to recognise that with a long-term timeframe, investing in stocks is a good way to build up a nest egg. I had invested in unit trusts for a couple of years but eventually I realised that fund managers and unit holders are usually not aligned since most funds are structured with a fixed regular asset charge independent of fund performance.
One can argue that the better the fund performance, the higher the asset value, hence the higher the charge collected, but this is only a secondary effect. The point here is even though unit holders suffer losses, fund managers still take a cut from the assets under management. In addition, unit trusts usually charge large fees and invest in large caps which prevent them from outperforming.
Q: How different is your investment approach now compared with when you started putting money in stocks 10 years ago?
A: When I started, I wasn’t investing but simply speculating, hoping for a quick return. A 5-20% gain for each trade would be satisfying enough, though I wasn’t trading frequently and had never used margin financing for Singapore stocks.
I did use margin financing during the dot-com period via a US Internet trading account but the amount was relatively small. I eventually lost 95% of my capital and learnt a good lesson. Ironically, I didn’t look at fundamentals at all then despite my actuarial training.
I don’t use margin in investing, and have never sold short in Singapore. Debt and patience cannot mix.
Q: Was there any unforgettable experience arising from doing hard research and investing longer term?
A: My first move to value investing was with the stock of Jardine C&C. I accumulated it from 2002 to 2004. This was the first stock whose fundamentals I studied closely and did a lot of research on the Web. During this period, the stock price did not move much even though the fundamentals were improving.
I learnt that Indonesia car sales were increasing every month by checking Yahoo news on Astra every night, and as Astra has half the market, Jardine C&C’s profit result was bound to be good. So I kept adding shares to my holding when I had spare cash. My experience of holding C&C led me to change my investment style to holding a stock beyond a 5-20% gain. In 2005, I sold all when the Indonesian car market started to slow down. By then, my gain was more than 130%! I was very happy as it was a big gain to me in dollar terms at that time.
Ben has made more than 100% gains on MMI and Sembawang Kimtrans in the past.
Q: Sorry to interrupt, but can you give an idea of the gain?
A: Short of $400,000 – well, $386,000 to be exact. I could fully appreciate the inefficiency of the market in the sense that information of C&C fundamentals was there and yet this information was not fully recognised for a long time. The key lesson I learnt was that having the knowledge and information on a stock gives me an advantage in the marketplace.
During this period, I started to read investment books especially classic like Intelligent Investor, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Essays of Warren Buffett. I began to understand that buying stock is like buying a portion of the business.
Q: Since selling Jardine C&C, was there any stock that you made big gains on?
A: There was MMI, which returned 141% and Sembawang Kimtrans, a 131% gain. My top 3 holdings now are Man Wah, Hongwei, and Celestial Nutrifoods - they are the multi-baggers in waiting, I hope. My gain on Celestial Nutrifoods did reach 300% - from 50 cents to $2 - at its peak in 2006 due mainly to PE expansion but I reckoned the price was still below the stock’s intrinsic value then so I didn’t sell. The business has been improving but the price-earnings ratio simply contracted as the market fell.
Q: How, if at all, does your training and work experience as an actuary help in your stock picking?
A: Probabilistic thinking, discount cash flow and long-term thinking are the core components of actuarial science. These are the tools most appropriate for investing. Like Warren Buffett, I don't do exact calculations of intrinsic value using discount cash flow, but roughly I can see a PE of 4-8x is attractive. The very high analytic skills and a sharp and quick mind every actuary has also help in research and analysing companies and business.
Q: Do you invest your wife’s savings as well? Given the financial nature of her work, does she have any investing skills or ideas to chip in?
A: Our savings are pooled. Some are under her name and some are under mine. I do the research and come up with recommendations – but all decisions are agreed jointly.
A very good book on investing.
Q: Earlier you talked about reading investment books. What’s a new solid book that you can recommend?
A: I have read almost all the classic investing books and I think most of the good stuff on investing has already been written. A recent book by Pat Dorsey (The Little Book that Builds Wealth) is a very good one. It focuses on business moats. I think they are the key to investment success and I have to admit that some of my stocks don't have many moats and I plan to let go some when the market turns.
Q: Let’s talk a bit about lifestyle: I guess you would be what is termed a high net-worth investor. Is yours a glittering lifestyle?
A: My lifestyle has not changed much in the last five years. I feel that how much money you have need not affect your lifestyle. My family shop and eat at the same places as before, and, predictable as it sounds, do the same things most Singaporeans do – that is, shop, watch TV and movies, for example. The only big-ticket item is travel, and we usually try to go on one long and one short trip a year.
The only difference is that in the past few years, I have developed a habit of spending one to two hours a night to go through a routine, which is:
- Check company announcements on the SGX website pertaining to my stocks.
- Check announcements for stocks on my watch list.
- Visit news and research websites to find out industry trends for some raw materials, etc.
- Visit some investment blogs and websites, both local and overseas.
- Occasionally do Google searches for information on my stocks.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Obama: Economy 'a big problem, and it's going to get worse'
President-elect Barack Obama braced the country for more tough times Sunday, saying twice in an interview that the nation’s already dismal economy would continue to worsen in the months ahead.
Obama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” used some of his starkest language yet to underscore the severity of the challenge he’ll face upon taking office next month.
“If you look at the unemployment numbers that came out yesterday, if you think about almost 2 million jobs lost so far, if you think about the fragility of the financial system and the fact that it is now a global financial system so that what happens in Thailand or Russia can have an impact here, and obviously what happens on Wall Street has an impact worldwide, when you think about the structural problems that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis, this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse,” he said in the interview taped Saturday.
Later in the interview Obama reiterated his downbeat projection, saying, “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Obama’s assessment, offered with an eye toward lowering the already considerable expectations on his shoulders, comes two days after the worst monthly job losses in over three decades, and a day after he proposed a series of ways to marry job-creation with infrastructure improvements in the forthcoming economic stimulus package.
In the wide-ranging appearance, Obama once again gave strong indications that he’s backing off his stance on two key campaign pledges – whether to repeal President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, and his call for bringing U.S. combat troops home from Iraq in 16 months. On a lighter note, he sketched a vision of an Obama White House alive with cultural and musical events, saying he hoped to include children from local Washington, D.C., schools.
But the economy dominated the discussion. Obama, who has been largely restrained from leveling political criticism during the transition period, took shots at Congress and the current administration for their handling of the crisis.
He told Brokaw that decisions based on where to focus infrastructure improvements would be based on merit, and “not in the old, traditional politics-first way.”
In an unambiguous brush-back to his former colleagues Obama said, “You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over.”
And after weeks of public magnanimity toward the Bush administration and much cooperation between the outgoing and incoming economic teams, Obama expressed irritation at what he described as a lack of urgency on the part of the incumbent about offering mortgage assistance to struggling homeowners.
“I'm disappointed that we haven't seen quicker movement on this issue by the administration,” Obama said. “We have said publicly and privately that we want to see a package that helps homeowners not just because it's good for that particular homeowner; it's good for the community.’
But pressed by Brokaw if he or his advisers had conveyed their unhappiness on the mortgage question to the Bush administration, Obama dodged. “We have specifically said that moving forward we have to have a housing component to any actions that we take. If we are only dealing with Wall Street and we're not dealing with Main Street, then we're only handling one half of the problem,” he said.
Obama also wouldn’t delve too deeply into the woes of the automakers, or answer specifically if they should be given government oversight, but did make clear he wanted to see financial assistance to the Big Three tied to reforms.
“They're going to have to restructure, and all their stakeholders are going to have to restructure—labor, management, shareholders, creditors—everybody is going to recognize that they have—they do not have a sustainable business model right now,” Obama said. “And if they expect taxpayers to help in that adjustment process, then they can't keep on putting off the kinds of changes that they frankly should have made 20 or 30 years ago. If they want to survive, then they better start building a fuel-efficient car. And if they want to survive, they've got to recognize that the auto market is not going to be as large as some of their rosy scenarios that they put forward over the last several years.”
On taxes, the president-elect suggested he would avoid any increases in the near term. He rejected the prospect of putting a fuel surcharge on falling gas prices to fund alternative energy, saying that “putting additional burdens on American families right now, I think, is a mistake.”
And he signaled that his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich may be put off, something his economic advisers have been saying quietly for weeks.
“My economic team right now is examining -- do we repeal that through legislation?” Obama said of the Bush tax cuts for those Americans making over $250,000 per year. “Do we let it lapse so that, when the Bush tax cuts expire, they're not renewed when it comes to wealthiest Americans?”
Obama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” used some of his starkest language yet to underscore the severity of the challenge he’ll face upon taking office next month.
“If you look at the unemployment numbers that came out yesterday, if you think about almost 2 million jobs lost so far, if you think about the fragility of the financial system and the fact that it is now a global financial system so that what happens in Thailand or Russia can have an impact here, and obviously what happens on Wall Street has an impact worldwide, when you think about the structural problems that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis, this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse,” he said in the interview taped Saturday.
Later in the interview Obama reiterated his downbeat projection, saying, “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Obama’s assessment, offered with an eye toward lowering the already considerable expectations on his shoulders, comes two days after the worst monthly job losses in over three decades, and a day after he proposed a series of ways to marry job-creation with infrastructure improvements in the forthcoming economic stimulus package.
In the wide-ranging appearance, Obama once again gave strong indications that he’s backing off his stance on two key campaign pledges – whether to repeal President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, and his call for bringing U.S. combat troops home from Iraq in 16 months. On a lighter note, he sketched a vision of an Obama White House alive with cultural and musical events, saying he hoped to include children from local Washington, D.C., schools.
But the economy dominated the discussion. Obama, who has been largely restrained from leveling political criticism during the transition period, took shots at Congress and the current administration for their handling of the crisis.
He told Brokaw that decisions based on where to focus infrastructure improvements would be based on merit, and “not in the old, traditional politics-first way.”
In an unambiguous brush-back to his former colleagues Obama said, “You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over.”
And after weeks of public magnanimity toward the Bush administration and much cooperation between the outgoing and incoming economic teams, Obama expressed irritation at what he described as a lack of urgency on the part of the incumbent about offering mortgage assistance to struggling homeowners.
“I'm disappointed that we haven't seen quicker movement on this issue by the administration,” Obama said. “We have said publicly and privately that we want to see a package that helps homeowners not just because it's good for that particular homeowner; it's good for the community.’
But pressed by Brokaw if he or his advisers had conveyed their unhappiness on the mortgage question to the Bush administration, Obama dodged. “We have specifically said that moving forward we have to have a housing component to any actions that we take. If we are only dealing with Wall Street and we're not dealing with Main Street, then we're only handling one half of the problem,” he said.
Obama also wouldn’t delve too deeply into the woes of the automakers, or answer specifically if they should be given government oversight, but did make clear he wanted to see financial assistance to the Big Three tied to reforms.
“They're going to have to restructure, and all their stakeholders are going to have to restructure—labor, management, shareholders, creditors—everybody is going to recognize that they have—they do not have a sustainable business model right now,” Obama said. “And if they expect taxpayers to help in that adjustment process, then they can't keep on putting off the kinds of changes that they frankly should have made 20 or 30 years ago. If they want to survive, then they better start building a fuel-efficient car. And if they want to survive, they've got to recognize that the auto market is not going to be as large as some of their rosy scenarios that they put forward over the last several years.”
On taxes, the president-elect suggested he would avoid any increases in the near term. He rejected the prospect of putting a fuel surcharge on falling gas prices to fund alternative energy, saying that “putting additional burdens on American families right now, I think, is a mistake.”
And he signaled that his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich may be put off, something his economic advisers have been saying quietly for weeks.
“My economic team right now is examining -- do we repeal that through legislation?” Obama said of the Bush tax cuts for those Americans making over $250,000 per year. “Do we let it lapse so that, when the Bush tax cuts expire, they're not renewed when it comes to wealthiest Americans?”
Friday, December 5, 2008
当知更鸟出现时
“如果你要等到知更鸟报春，春天都快过去了。”
在金融海啸蹂躝下，全球股市，疮痍满目，令人不忍卒睹。
到底股市何时才跌到谷底？什么时候才是最好的买进时机？
许多人都想知道此类问题的答案。
许多分析家和股票研究机构，都企图寻找答案。
这类的文章太多了，而且似乎都言之成理，看得多了，反而使人眼花缭乱，无所适从。
在我所读过的文章中，股神巴菲特10月17日在纽约时报发表的“我买美国（的前途）”，是我认为最精彩的一篇。
“股神”沃伦·巴菲特在《纽约时报》上的一篇评论中说，现在是美股抄底的好时机。
巴菲特此前就美股顶底发出过3次声音，最近一次是1999年11月网络泡沫膨胀时。从历史经验看，巴菲特对顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。正如他自己强调的那样：“我无法预测股市的短期走势。”
“我一直在买”
“我一直在购买美国股票。”巴菲特在上述评论中说，他的个人账户以前只买美国政府债券，而现在如果股价继续有吸引力，他所有非伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的净资产将全部用于购买美股。
巴菲特最近数次逆市购买美国企业股票：9月23日，宣布通过购买股权方式向高盛注资50亿美元；10月1日宣布，将斥资30亿美元，通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认购通用电气优先股。
巴菲特把购买美股的原因简单归为一个原则：当别人贪婪时胆怯，当别人胆怯时贪婪。他乐观预期，尽管美国许多优秀企业会有短期利润波动，但大多数大公司从现在开始5年、10年和20年内赢利水平会不断创新高。
他列举了一系列历史事实说明，在市场情绪或经济都转好之前，股票市场就会大涨。今年标普500指数已下跌36%，道琼斯指数4年来第一次跌破10000点。“坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，它可以让你以很低的市场价格分享到美国未来的一杯羹。”巴菲特说。
巴菲特警告持现金等价物的人们，政府当前处理危机的政策可能会导致通胀、加速现金账户贬值。“今后10年内优先股表现很大程度上将超过现金。”
市场反响
投资者似乎遵从了“股神”的意见，道琼斯指数当天下午“应声”上涨近3%，但最终还是在抛盘打压下收损。《永恒的价值：沃伦·巴菲特的故事》作者安德鲁·帕特里克表示，巴菲特说的是长期看好，这就是他的经典之处。
据《福布斯》杂志最新排名，巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。作为投资大师，他的一举一动似乎都对投资市场有风向标的作用，有人把这称为“巴菲特效应”。
CNBC的调查显示，68%的投资者表示会追随巴菲特抄底，32%的人则拒绝“股神”的建议。
新泽西州的罗伯特·努斯鲍姆指出，大多数美国人并不认为他们有足够剩余资产，能在看到投资回报前的15~20年把钱都“封存”在股市里。“我们需要安全网确保我们的钱袋顺利度过这段艰难时期。”他说，对大多数人来说，巴菲特的建议给得太少、太晚。
《雪球：巴菲特和他的商业生命》作者爱丽丝·施罗德说，巴菲特喜欢为人师，世界上越来越多的人也接受了他的观点。他这样做的意图不是为了改变市场进程，只是想告诉那些开明和愿意接受意见的人他们需要知道的东西，以便于采取行动。
《纽约时报》的一位读者回信说：“我不知道股市会对巴菲特的言论如何反应，但他请求我们重视历史的教训，并继续对美国保持忠诚和自信。这体现了近期政治领导人缺乏的品质：领袖魅力。”
在金融海啸蹂躝下，全球股市，疮痍满目，令人不忍卒睹。
到底股市何时才跌到谷底？什么时候才是最好的买进时机？
许多人都想知道此类问题的答案。
许多分析家和股票研究机构，都企图寻找答案。
这类的文章太多了，而且似乎都言之成理，看得多了，反而使人眼花缭乱，无所适从。
在我所读过的文章中，股神巴菲特10月17日在纽约时报发表的“我买美国（的前途）”，是我认为最精彩的一篇。
“股神”沃伦·巴菲特在《纽约时报》上的一篇评论中说，现在是美股抄底的好时机。
巴菲特此前就美股顶底发出过3次声音，最近一次是1999年11月网络泡沫膨胀时。从历史经验看，巴菲特对顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。正如他自己强调的那样：“我无法预测股市的短期走势。”
“我一直在买”
“我一直在购买美国股票。”巴菲特在上述评论中说，他的个人账户以前只买美国政府债券，而现在如果股价继续有吸引力，他所有非伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的净资产将全部用于购买美股。
巴菲特最近数次逆市购买美国企业股票：9月23日，宣布通过购买股权方式向高盛注资50亿美元；10月1日宣布，将斥资30亿美元，通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认购通用电气优先股。
巴菲特把购买美股的原因简单归为一个原则：当别人贪婪时胆怯，当别人胆怯时贪婪。他乐观预期，尽管美国许多优秀企业会有短期利润波动，但大多数大公司从现在开始5年、10年和20年内赢利水平会不断创新高。
他列举了一系列历史事实说明，在市场情绪或经济都转好之前，股票市场就会大涨。今年标普500指数已下跌36%，道琼斯指数4年来第一次跌破10000点。“坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，它可以让你以很低的市场价格分享到美国未来的一杯羹。”巴菲特说。
巴菲特警告持现金等价物的人们，政府当前处理危机的政策可能会导致通胀、加速现金账户贬值。“今后10年内优先股表现很大程度上将超过现金。”
市场反响
投资者似乎遵从了“股神”的意见，道琼斯指数当天下午“应声”上涨近3%，但最终还是在抛盘打压下收损。《永恒的价值：沃伦·巴菲特的故事》作者安德鲁·帕特里克表示，巴菲特说的是长期看好，这就是他的经典之处。
据《福布斯》杂志最新排名，巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。作为投资大师，他的一举一动似乎都对投资市场有风向标的作用，有人把这称为“巴菲特效应”。
CNBC的调查显示，68%的投资者表示会追随巴菲特抄底，32%的人则拒绝“股神”的建议。
新泽西州的罗伯特·努斯鲍姆指出，大多数美国人并不认为他们有足够剩余资产，能在看到投资回报前的15~20年把钱都“封存”在股市里。“我们需要安全网确保我们的钱袋顺利度过这段艰难时期。”他说，对大多数人来说，巴菲特的建议给得太少、太晚。
《雪球：巴菲特和他的商业生命》作者爱丽丝·施罗德说，巴菲特喜欢为人师，世界上越来越多的人也接受了他的观点。他这样做的意图不是为了改变市场进程，只是想告诉那些开明和愿意接受意见的人他们需要知道的东西，以便于采取行动。
《纽约时报》的一位读者回信说：“我不知道股市会对巴菲特的言论如何反应，但他请求我们重视历史的教训，并继续对美国保持忠诚和自信。这体现了近期政治领导人缺乏的品质：领袖魅力。”
曾渊沧@股友通讯录 十二月
上一次的通讯中，我告诉大家10 月28 日当海峡时报指数跌至1473 点时，已跌至《曾氏通道》的95%悲观线。过去10年，每逢海峡时报指数对数跌至《曾氏通道》的95%悲观线时，熊市就恰恰好结束；那是1998年，2003年。同样的，升破《曾氏通道》的95%乐观线时，牛事也恰恰好结束；那是1997年，2000年，及2007年。也因此，去年年底我很大胆地出版一本书，书名是《迎战转势》，告诉所有的人，牛市结束了。
从10月28日至今，海峡时报指数反弹了，但依然起起落落，波幅很大，投资者依然很担心，人人都说明年经济会更差。看淡经济，自然看淡股市。但是，我想告诉你：你知不知道，2003年海峡时报指数在甚麽时候见底回升？原来是2003年3月11日，当时海峡时报跌至1205点，之后就再也没有跌破这个低点。
还记得2003年的3月是什麽日子，那是SARS 刚刚暴发期，人人都慌得很，4月份SARS的高峰期时，新加坡有如鬼城，人人都对前景非常悲观。但是，股市却已度过最低潮的日子，一个新牛市开始了。
股市的确是很奇妙，往往在经济仍然暗淡的时候，已经见底回升，在人人兴高采烈，庆祝经济蓬勃发展时见顶回落。2003年至2007年是我投资史中最丰收的4 年，累积了目前足以轻松过下半辈子的财富。今日，我是属於已经《上了岸》的人，无复当年之勇。1998 年与2003年，我是奋身而入，将所有可以动用的现金一次过全投入股市。现在，《上了岸》的心态使我依然保有适量现金及适量股票，再加上房地产，维持一个比较平衡的资产分配。不过，如果你仍然年轻，手上的现金属於丢到海里都无所谓的话，胆子不妨大一些。记住，机会不是经常
有。但更要记住，入市的心态一定得是长期投资。
我的所谓长期投资是至少3年。现在，许多人都在批评，讥笑以长期投资出名的股神巴菲特。这些人在3个月前想捞底入市，结果股价一跌再跌，持货3 个月亏了一大截，就大骂长期投资，害人不浅。这是错误的。3个月，甚至一年，两年都不是长期投资；你知道吗，巴菲特手上的股票，平均持有时间是17年，这才叫做长期投资。
还有，长期投资者的入市时间也很重要，不是要你在海指3800 点时入市搞长期投资，不是要你在海指由高位下跌半年之后就入市捞底不成然后被逼长线投资。过去一年，当股市由最高位下跌时，我不断地说，熊市最短是一年，在一年之内都只能短炒博反弹，不是什麽长线投资的机会。 长线投资只应该在海峡时报指数跌穿《曾氏通道》的底线，平均P/E不足10倍才出手。
从10月28日至今，海峡时报指数反弹了，但依然起起落落，波幅很大，投资者依然很担心，人人都说明年经济会更差。看淡经济，自然看淡股市。但是，我想告诉你：你知不知道，2003年海峡时报指数在甚麽时候见底回升？原来是2003年3月11日，当时海峡时报跌至1205点，之后就再也没有跌破这个低点。
还记得2003年的3月是什麽日子，那是SARS 刚刚暴发期，人人都慌得很，4月份SARS的高峰期时，新加坡有如鬼城，人人都对前景非常悲观。但是，股市却已度过最低潮的日子，一个新牛市开始了。
股市的确是很奇妙，往往在经济仍然暗淡的时候，已经见底回升，在人人兴高采烈，庆祝经济蓬勃发展时见顶回落。2003年至2007年是我投资史中最丰收的4 年，累积了目前足以轻松过下半辈子的财富。今日，我是属於已经《上了岸》的人，无复当年之勇。1998 年与2003年，我是奋身而入，将所有可以动用的现金一次过全投入股市。现在，《上了岸》的心态使我依然保有适量现金及适量股票，再加上房地产，维持一个比较平衡的资产分配。不过，如果你仍然年轻，手上的现金属於丢到海里都无所谓的话，胆子不妨大一些。记住，机会不是经常
有。但更要记住，入市的心态一定得是长期投资。
我的所谓长期投资是至少3年。现在，许多人都在批评，讥笑以长期投资出名的股神巴菲特。这些人在3个月前想捞底入市，结果股价一跌再跌，持货3 个月亏了一大截，就大骂长期投资，害人不浅。这是错误的。3个月，甚至一年，两年都不是长期投资；你知道吗，巴菲特手上的股票，平均持有时间是17年，这才叫做长期投资。
还有，长期投资者的入市时间也很重要，不是要你在海指3800 点时入市搞长期投资，不是要你在海指由高位下跌半年之后就入市捞底不成然后被逼长线投资。过去一年，当股市由最高位下跌时，我不断地说，熊市最短是一年，在一年之内都只能短炒博反弹，不是什麽长线投资的机会。 长线投资只应该在海峡时报指数跌穿《曾氏通道》的底线，平均P/E不足10倍才出手。
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Betting your shirt on property
Switching from clothes to property, the Singapore brand remains very viable
FOR those who want to foray into real-estate investment trusts (Reits) but are finding them a tad too expensive, a cheaper alternative would be former shirt maker and retailer Second Chance Properties.
It is not exactly a Reit in the strict sense, as it has other businesses, including apparel, gold, jewellery and securities investment. But, Second Chance’s founder and head honcho Mr Mohamed Salleh has over the last few years built up an extensive portfolio of small properties (60 to be exact) at a cost of some $87 million.
These range from outlets in shopping malls like Lucky Plaza, Far East Plaza, City Plaza and Peninsula Plaza to shophouses in housing board estates like in Geylang, Ang Mo Kio, Serangoon North, Toa Payoh, Jurong and Tampines.
An end-June valuation of all the properties by Jones Lang LaSalle showed they were worth some $118.4 million, an increase of $15.1 million over the previous year. The properties account for most of the group’s total assets of $158.56 million.
In the last financial year, which ended June 30, the company’s property division was the largest contributor to pre-tax profits accounting for $21.12 million of the $26.9 million earned.
The securities division, which contributed $12.81 million in FY2007, saw a sharp decline in pre-tax earnings to just $1.6 million in the wake of the United States sub-prime mortgages crisis.
Pre-tax contribution from its apparel division amounted to $2.69 million($2.06 million previously) while the gold and diamond jewellery section earned $4.03 million ($3.76 million).
What makes Second Chance so attractive is its dividend policy of announcing what it is going to pay, way in advance. For instance, it announced on Aug 27 this year that it will be recommending a tax-exempt dividend of 3.5 cents a share for the financial year ending June 2009 and 3.8 cents a share for FY 2010.
This amounts to yields of over 10 per cent on its current share price of just over 30 cents apiece, well over what you can get from putting money in the bank, or even from most other regular Reits on the market here.
Asked how Second Chance can make such promises,Mr Mohamed, who started out as a men’s tailor in 1974 in Peninsula Plaza, points out that rentals have been locked-in for the next few years for most of the properties.
“While some properties come to the end of their tenancy, others are being renewed. Many of our tenants are also in for the long haul and stay with us,”Mr Mohamed says.
Apart from his own-use outlets for his jewellery and apparel business, tenants include such well-known names as Bossini, Giordano, Hang Ten and 7-Eleven.
But, as in all other investments in equities, an investor in Second Chance runs the risk of a falling share price, which in the worst case, could wipe out almost every cent invested.
On the other hand, one also stands to gain from a run-up in share prices, offering a handsome return on both capital outlay and in dividends.
Second Chance’s foray into property like its name was by chance. Just after it got listed in 1997, the region was hit by the financial crisis which wiped out billions of dollars in the value of shares and properties.
“We had raised $5.4 million from the listing and with the crash of the property market we saw an opportunity to buy on the cheap,” he recalled with glee and pride.
The company was able to raise another $5 million from the sale of his gold business “and with the $10 million or so in capital, we were to leverage that and buy $30 million worth of properties”.
And so, in 1999, Mr Mohamed changed the name of his company from Second Chance Enterprises to Second Chance Properties to better reflect the change in its core business.
Perhaps investors would do well to have a second look at the company.
Source : Today - 18 Sep 2008
FOR those who want to foray into real-estate investment trusts (Reits) but are finding them a tad too expensive, a cheaper alternative would be former shirt maker and retailer Second Chance Properties.
It is not exactly a Reit in the strict sense, as it has other businesses, including apparel, gold, jewellery and securities investment. But, Second Chance’s founder and head honcho Mr Mohamed Salleh has over the last few years built up an extensive portfolio of small properties (60 to be exact) at a cost of some $87 million.
These range from outlets in shopping malls like Lucky Plaza, Far East Plaza, City Plaza and Peninsula Plaza to shophouses in housing board estates like in Geylang, Ang Mo Kio, Serangoon North, Toa Payoh, Jurong and Tampines.
An end-June valuation of all the properties by Jones Lang LaSalle showed they were worth some $118.4 million, an increase of $15.1 million over the previous year. The properties account for most of the group’s total assets of $158.56 million.
In the last financial year, which ended June 30, the company’s property division was the largest contributor to pre-tax profits accounting for $21.12 million of the $26.9 million earned.
The securities division, which contributed $12.81 million in FY2007, saw a sharp decline in pre-tax earnings to just $1.6 million in the wake of the United States sub-prime mortgages crisis.
Pre-tax contribution from its apparel division amounted to $2.69 million($2.06 million previously) while the gold and diamond jewellery section earned $4.03 million ($3.76 million).
What makes Second Chance so attractive is its dividend policy of announcing what it is going to pay, way in advance. For instance, it announced on Aug 27 this year that it will be recommending a tax-exempt dividend of 3.5 cents a share for the financial year ending June 2009 and 3.8 cents a share for FY 2010.
This amounts to yields of over 10 per cent on its current share price of just over 30 cents apiece, well over what you can get from putting money in the bank, or even from most other regular Reits on the market here.
Asked how Second Chance can make such promises,Mr Mohamed, who started out as a men’s tailor in 1974 in Peninsula Plaza, points out that rentals have been locked-in for the next few years for most of the properties.
“While some properties come to the end of their tenancy, others are being renewed. Many of our tenants are also in for the long haul and stay with us,”Mr Mohamed says.
Apart from his own-use outlets for his jewellery and apparel business, tenants include such well-known names as Bossini, Giordano, Hang Ten and 7-Eleven.
But, as in all other investments in equities, an investor in Second Chance runs the risk of a falling share price, which in the worst case, could wipe out almost every cent invested.
On the other hand, one also stands to gain from a run-up in share prices, offering a handsome return on both capital outlay and in dividends.
Second Chance’s foray into property like its name was by chance. Just after it got listed in 1997, the region was hit by the financial crisis which wiped out billions of dollars in the value of shares and properties.
“We had raised $5.4 million from the listing and with the crash of the property market we saw an opportunity to buy on the cheap,” he recalled with glee and pride.
The company was able to raise another $5 million from the sale of his gold business “and with the $10 million or so in capital, we were to leverage that and buy $30 million worth of properties”.
And so, in 1999, Mr Mohamed changed the name of his company from Second Chance Enterprises to Second Chance Properties to better reflect the change in its core business.
Perhaps investors would do well to have a second look at the company.
Source : Today - 18 Sep 2008
Second Chance Properties Limited
Business Description
2nd Chance was listed on the SGX-Sesdaq on 24 January 1997, and upgraded to the Mainboard on 2 March 2004. It started out as a sole proprietorship in 1975, when Mohamed Salleh set up Second Chance Enterprises to engage in the tailoring of men's garments. By 1976, the business had expanded to 3 tailoring shops. However, due to difficulty in expanding the tailoring business further, Second Chance Enterprises decided to switch to retailing of men's ready-to-wear fashion clothes in 1979.
Corporate Goals:
First Lady-- To expand First Lady into the largest retailer & wholesaler of modern Islamic apparel in the region. To grow from 14 outlets in Malaysia as of June 2006, to 100 outlets by June 2012.
Golden Chance-- To maintain our dominance of the gold jewellery business in the domestic Malay market.
2nd Chance Properties-- To continue selective purchases of choice retail properties thereby augmenting our stable source of rental income.
In 1993, the Group opened its goldsmith shop, called Golden Chance Goldsmith. The gold jewellery retail business is currently the main revenue and profit contributor to the Group. In 1996, the Group expanded its gold jewellery retail business into Malaysia.
The Company was incorporated on 7 July 1981 as Indonesian Mercantile Traders (S) Pte Ltd. It changed its name to Second Chance Enterprises Pte Ltd in 1986 and to its present name in 1987 to reflect its change of status to a public limited company.
The Group is principally engaged in the retailing of ready-made wearing apparel, and gold and diamond jewellery, through a network of retail outlets in Singapore and Malaysia. Its 2nd Chance and First Lady outlets retail mainly the 2nd Chance brand of boys and men's clothing, and the First Lady brand of traditional Malay ladies' and girls' clothing respectively, while its Golden Chance outlets retail gold and diamond jewellery. In 1999, it diversified into property investments.
Recent Development
2 Dec 2007- The Founder and present Chairman & CEO of Second Chance Properties Ltd (the “Company”) has outlined a succession plan for the Group to adopt. He wishes to emulate the proven effectiveness of MM Lee Kuan Yew’s own style of succession whereby while still healthy and in good form effect a smooth transition and at the same time continue to play a pivotal role.
1. Under this plan, Dr. Ahmad Magad, the Lead Independent Director, was invited and has accepted the position of Chairman (Non-Executive) of the Group with effect from 1st December 2007. The tenure is for 3 years with re-appointment at the pleasure of the Board. The incumbent remains as CEO.
2. The Deputy Chairman & Deputy CEO, Mr Hasan Marican, has agreed to take up the position of Group CEO for a period of 5 years with effect from 1st July 2009. Mr. Hasan has proven himself beyond any doubt over the last 24 years and is confident in taking the Group to greater heights. Mr. Mohd Salleh will then take up the role of Advisor and Executive Director. He intends to continue playing an active full time role in the Group for many years to come and continue to help navigate it.
3. To further strengthen the Board, Mr Ferus Bakar, Business Manager of the Group, has been promoted and appointed as an Executive Director with effect from 1 December 2007.
Mr. Ferus Bakar joined the Group on 1st July 2005 as Business Manager. He is responsible for purchasing, A&P & assisting Chairman & CEO in human resource activities and general management of business for the Group. Prior to joining the Group, he was an Associate Account Director with MediacorpTV12. He has accumulated 13years of Retail, Hospitality, Food & Beverage and Media industry experience in managerial capacity.
29 August 2007- FY June 2007 Results Highlights
Revenue: $48.17m (+13%)
Net profits after tax: $18.3m (+74%)
Basic EPS: 6.18cents
Net Operating Cashflow: $6.1m
Dividend: 2.7cents nett
23 March 2007 - Second Chance Properties Ltd announced that its subsidiary, Super Chance Properties Pte Ltd, has signed a sale and purchase agreement to buy the following unit for investment purpose. Details of the transaction are as follow:
Address of property : Block 12 Haig Road #01-323 Singapore 430012
Tenure of property : Leasehold (82 years from 1 July 1993)
Size of property : 393 sq metres
Purchase price : S$6,820,000.00
Purpose of purchase : Investment
Deposit and Date paid : S$358,050.00 inclusive of GST paid on 23 March 2007
Rental income per month : S$40,000.00 excluding GST and service charges
Expected date of completion : 13 July 2007
Purchaser : Super Chance Properties Pte Ltd
18 Aug 2006...
Record Net Profit for fourth consecutive year
Higher and Increasing Dividend for the next Three Years
First Lady to Expand to 100 stores in Malaysia
FY 2006 Performance
In 2006, Second Chance Properties Ltd generated total revenue of $42.49 million, which is 8.68% more than the prior year. The Group reported net profit after tax of $10.513 million, which is 4.86% more from FY 2005.
The net cash generated from operating activities was $7.38 million as compared to $6.3 million in the prior year. The Group maintained a strong balance sheet and healthy financial position at the end of 2006 with gearing lowered to 0.66.
Dividend
Due to the strong performance and our optimistic outlook for the Group, the Directors are recommending an increase in the dividend to 3.0 cents per ordinary share less Singapore tax of 20% or 2.4 cents after tax for this financial year.
For the next two financial years that is June 2007 and June 2008, the Directors will be recommending a higher dividend payout of 2.7cents and 3.0cents after tax respectively.
Barring any change in circumstances, the Directors intend to continue with its high dividend policy for future years.
Future Growth
The successful expansion of First Lady in Malaysia will provide a new engine of growth for the Group. At present, we have fourteen (14) highly profitable stores in peninsula Malaysia making us the dominant and unrivalled market leader. The plan now is to expand our chain of stores to one hundred (100) within a period of five to six years; in all cities and major towns throughout both east & west Malaysia.
The increase in interest rates and higher property prices has resulted in much lower real net returns and higher risk, making good buys difficult to find. There was one property investment of $4.59 million made in FY 2006. This does not mean that our growth in property investment will stop. Our strong profits and good cash flow is reducing our debt and with much lower gearing, we are well positioned to re-enter and take advantage of any sudden negative events affecting the property market.
Outlook for FY 2007
The increase in property prices and rentals is expected to continue with the robust economy. This augurs well for our investment properties purchased earlier during the years of economic uncertainty.
Our retail business will continue to do well. The gold business is expected to maintain its profitability, while the apparel division with the strong expansion of First lady in Malaysia will contribute higher profits.
With all these positive factors, the outlook for this year has never been as good.
2nd Chance has a good track record of maintaining profitability, often trades below NAV, and pays a high dividend yield.
WS Dividend Rank :
Consecutive Years Paying Div : 2
Consecutive Years Increase Div : 2
One-Year Total Return : 54 %
REVENUE/EARNINGS DATA
Revenue (Million S$ )
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
2007 - - - - 48.2
2006 - - - - 42.5
2005 - - - - 39.1
2004 - - - - 36.1
Earnings Per Share ( S$ )
2007 - - - - 0.0618
2006 - - - - 0.0400
2005 - - - - 0.0520
2004 - - - - 0.0480
Dividend Data (cents - SGD )
Year Interim Final Total Share Bonus
2006 - 0.0240 0.0240
2005 - 0.0200 0.0200
2007 - - 0.0270
Officers
Ms. Joharabee Bte Kadir Maideen Saiboo Marican: GM First Lady
Safie Hussain: Field Mgr, Men's Stores
J. Raj Mohamed: Accounts Mgr
Ms. Geetha Padmanabhan: Finance Mgr
Ferus Baker: Business Mgr
Board of Directors
Mohamed Salleh Marican: Adviser & Executive Director
Hasan Marican: Group CEO (effective 1 July 2009)
Dev Pisharody: Executive Director
Ms. Radiah Maricar: Executive Director
Ahmad Bin Mohamed Magad: Non-Executive Chairman
David Tan Chao Hsiung: Independent Director
Paul Tan Lye Heng: Independent Director
Ferus Bakar: Executive Director
Founded: 1975
Stockholders:2,371 (at 30 Sep 2005)
Largest Stockholders (Sep 2005)
Mohamed Selleh Marican, Director: 58%
2nd Chance was listed on the SGX-Sesdaq on 24 January 1997, and upgraded to the Mainboard on 2 March 2004. It started out as a sole proprietorship in 1975, when Mohamed Salleh set up Second Chance Enterprises to engage in the tailoring of men's garments. By 1976, the business had expanded to 3 tailoring shops. However, due to difficulty in expanding the tailoring business further, Second Chance Enterprises decided to switch to retailing of men's ready-to-wear fashion clothes in 1979.
Corporate Goals:
First Lady-- To expand First Lady into the largest retailer & wholesaler of modern Islamic apparel in the region. To grow from 14 outlets in Malaysia as of June 2006, to 100 outlets by June 2012.
Golden Chance-- To maintain our dominance of the gold jewellery business in the domestic Malay market.
2nd Chance Properties-- To continue selective purchases of choice retail properties thereby augmenting our stable source of rental income.
In 1993, the Group opened its goldsmith shop, called Golden Chance Goldsmith. The gold jewellery retail business is currently the main revenue and profit contributor to the Group. In 1996, the Group expanded its gold jewellery retail business into Malaysia.
The Company was incorporated on 7 July 1981 as Indonesian Mercantile Traders (S) Pte Ltd. It changed its name to Second Chance Enterprises Pte Ltd in 1986 and to its present name in 1987 to reflect its change of status to a public limited company.
The Group is principally engaged in the retailing of ready-made wearing apparel, and gold and diamond jewellery, through a network of retail outlets in Singapore and Malaysia. Its 2nd Chance and First Lady outlets retail mainly the 2nd Chance brand of boys and men's clothing, and the First Lady brand of traditional Malay ladies' and girls' clothing respectively, while its Golden Chance outlets retail gold and diamond jewellery. In 1999, it diversified into property investments.
Recent Development
2 Dec 2007- The Founder and present Chairman & CEO of Second Chance Properties Ltd (the “Company”) has outlined a succession plan for the Group to adopt. He wishes to emulate the proven effectiveness of MM Lee Kuan Yew’s own style of succession whereby while still healthy and in good form effect a smooth transition and at the same time continue to play a pivotal role.
1. Under this plan, Dr. Ahmad Magad, the Lead Independent Director, was invited and has accepted the position of Chairman (Non-Executive) of the Group with effect from 1st December 2007. The tenure is for 3 years with re-appointment at the pleasure of the Board. The incumbent remains as CEO.
2. The Deputy Chairman & Deputy CEO, Mr Hasan Marican, has agreed to take up the position of Group CEO for a period of 5 years with effect from 1st July 2009. Mr. Hasan has proven himself beyond any doubt over the last 24 years and is confident in taking the Group to greater heights. Mr. Mohd Salleh will then take up the role of Advisor and Executive Director. He intends to continue playing an active full time role in the Group for many years to come and continue to help navigate it.
3. To further strengthen the Board, Mr Ferus Bakar, Business Manager of the Group, has been promoted and appointed as an Executive Director with effect from 1 December 2007.
Mr. Ferus Bakar joined the Group on 1st July 2005 as Business Manager. He is responsible for purchasing, A&P & assisting Chairman & CEO in human resource activities and general management of business for the Group. Prior to joining the Group, he was an Associate Account Director with MediacorpTV12. He has accumulated 13years of Retail, Hospitality, Food & Beverage and Media industry experience in managerial capacity.
29 August 2007- FY June 2007 Results Highlights
Revenue: $48.17m (+13%)
Net profits after tax: $18.3m (+74%)
Basic EPS: 6.18cents
Net Operating Cashflow: $6.1m
Dividend: 2.7cents nett
23 March 2007 - Second Chance Properties Ltd announced that its subsidiary, Super Chance Properties Pte Ltd, has signed a sale and purchase agreement to buy the following unit for investment purpose. Details of the transaction are as follow:
Address of property : Block 12 Haig Road #01-323 Singapore 430012
Tenure of property : Leasehold (82 years from 1 July 1993)
Size of property : 393 sq metres
Purchase price : S$6,820,000.00
Purpose of purchase : Investment
Deposit and Date paid : S$358,050.00 inclusive of GST paid on 23 March 2007
Rental income per month : S$40,000.00 excluding GST and service charges
Expected date of completion : 13 July 2007
Purchaser : Super Chance Properties Pte Ltd
18 Aug 2006...
Record Net Profit for fourth consecutive year
Higher and Increasing Dividend for the next Three Years
First Lady to Expand to 100 stores in Malaysia
FY 2006 Performance
In 2006, Second Chance Properties Ltd generated total revenue of $42.49 million, which is 8.68% more than the prior year. The Group reported net profit after tax of $10.513 million, which is 4.86% more from FY 2005.
The net cash generated from operating activities was $7.38 million as compared to $6.3 million in the prior year. The Group maintained a strong balance sheet and healthy financial position at the end of 2006 with gearing lowered to 0.66.
Dividend
Due to the strong performance and our optimistic outlook for the Group, the Directors are recommending an increase in the dividend to 3.0 cents per ordinary share less Singapore tax of 20% or 2.4 cents after tax for this financial year.
For the next two financial years that is June 2007 and June 2008, the Directors will be recommending a higher dividend payout of 2.7cents and 3.0cents after tax respectively.
Barring any change in circumstances, the Directors intend to continue with its high dividend policy for future years.
Future Growth
The successful expansion of First Lady in Malaysia will provide a new engine of growth for the Group. At present, we have fourteen (14) highly profitable stores in peninsula Malaysia making us the dominant and unrivalled market leader. The plan now is to expand our chain of stores to one hundred (100) within a period of five to six years; in all cities and major towns throughout both east & west Malaysia.
The increase in interest rates and higher property prices has resulted in much lower real net returns and higher risk, making good buys difficult to find. There was one property investment of $4.59 million made in FY 2006. This does not mean that our growth in property investment will stop. Our strong profits and good cash flow is reducing our debt and with much lower gearing, we are well positioned to re-enter and take advantage of any sudden negative events affecting the property market.
Outlook for FY 2007
The increase in property prices and rentals is expected to continue with the robust economy. This augurs well for our investment properties purchased earlier during the years of economic uncertainty.
Our retail business will continue to do well. The gold business is expected to maintain its profitability, while the apparel division with the strong expansion of First lady in Malaysia will contribute higher profits.
With all these positive factors, the outlook for this year has never been as good.
2nd Chance has a good track record of maintaining profitability, often trades below NAV, and pays a high dividend yield.
WS Dividend Rank :
Consecutive Years Paying Div : 2
Consecutive Years Increase Div : 2
One-Year Total Return : 54 %
REVENUE/EARNINGS DATA
Revenue (Million S$ )
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
2007 - - - - 48.2
2006 - - - - 42.5
2005 - - - - 39.1
2004 - - - - 36.1
Earnings Per Share ( S$ )
2007 - - - - 0.0618
2006 - - - - 0.0400
2005 - - - - 0.0520
2004 - - - - 0.0480
Dividend Data (cents - SGD )
Year Interim Final Total Share Bonus
2006 - 0.0240 0.0240
2005 - 0.0200 0.0200
2007 - - 0.0270
Officers
Ms. Joharabee Bte Kadir Maideen Saiboo Marican: GM First Lady
Safie Hussain: Field Mgr, Men's Stores
J. Raj Mohamed: Accounts Mgr
Ms. Geetha Padmanabhan: Finance Mgr
Ferus Baker: Business Mgr
Board of Directors
Mohamed Salleh Marican: Adviser & Executive Director
Hasan Marican: Group CEO (effective 1 July 2009)
Dev Pisharody: Executive Director
Ms. Radiah Maricar: Executive Director
Ahmad Bin Mohamed Magad: Non-Executive Chairman
David Tan Chao Hsiung: Independent Director
Paul Tan Lye Heng: Independent Director
Ferus Bakar: Executive Director
Founded: 1975
Stockholders:2,371 (at 30 Sep 2005)
Largest Stockholders (Sep 2005)
Mohamed Selleh Marican, Director: 58%
Friday, November 28, 2008
市 場 氣 氛 漸 樂 觀
美 國 政 府 的 7000 億 美 元 救 市 基 金 用 了 一 半 ， 又 馬 上 推 出 另 一 個 8000 億 美 元 的 救 市 計 劃 ， 主 要 用 來 買 下 兩 房 手 上 的 有 毒 資 產 及 信 用 卡 、 汽 車 貸 款 債 券 ， 7000 億 加 8000 億 ， 再 加 上 之 前 通 過 的 減 稅 1000 億 ， 合 共 1.6 萬 億 美 元 ， 明 年 奧 巴 馬 正 式 上 任 ， 不 知 道 會 再 倒 多 少 錢 救 市 ， 相 信 不 會 少 過 1 萬 億 美 元 吧 。
數 萬 億 美 元 從 何 而 來 ？ 奧 巴 馬 在 競 選 時 說 會 向 富 人 抽 稅 ， 美 國 富 人 有 難 了 。 當 年 ， 羅 斯 福 總 統 在 1932 年 上 台 後 ， 也 向 富 人 徵 重 稅 ， 稅 率 好 像 高 達 90% ！ 嗚 呼 ， 你 賺 100 元 ， 政 府 拿 走 90 元 ， 如 果 你 是 富 人 你 想 當 美 國 人 嗎 ？
今 日 ， 許 多 人 都 喜 歡 把 目 前 的 金 融 海 嘯 與 1929 年 開 始 的 大 蕭 條 比 較 ， 當 時 的 羅 斯 福 總 統 上 任 時 所 面 對 的 局 面 就 與 奧 巴 馬 明 年 初 將 面 臨 的 局 面 差 不 多 ， 奧 巴 馬 會 向 富 人 抽 多 重 的 稅 呢 ？
大 行 也 轉 唱 好
除 了 抽 稅 ， 政 府 另 外 兩 個 方 法 找 錢 就 是 發 行 債 券 與 印 鈔 票 ， 美 國 政 府 已 發 行 10 萬 億 美 元 的 債 券 ， 再 大 量 發 行 債 券 ， 賣 給 誰 ？ 中 國 也 買 不 起 萬 億 美 元 的 債 券 。 還 有 ， 現 在 美 國 政 府 出 面 挽 救 兩 房 、 AIG 及 花 旗 銀 行 ， 這 四 家 企 業 的 債 務 已 變 相 成 了 國 債 。 美 國 國 債 太 多 了 ， 多 得 驚 人 ， 最 後 ， 最 大 的 可 能 性 就 是 印 鈔 票 ， 半 年 前 ， 我 們 談 通 脹 ， 今 日 我 們 談 通 縮 ， 半 年 後 ， 我 們 會 不 會 再 談 通 脹 ？ 如 果 美 國 政 府 如 此 大 量 的 印 鈔 票 ， 請 不 要 驚 訝 半 年 後 通 脹 突 然 又 成 了 傳 媒 頭 條 新 聞 。
數 萬 億 美 元 從 何 而 來 ？ 奧 巴 馬 在 競 選 時 說 會 向 富 人 抽 稅 ， 美 國 富 人 有 難 了 。 當 年 ， 羅 斯 福 總 統 在 1932 年 上 台 後 ， 也 向 富 人 徵 重 稅 ， 稅 率 好 像 高 達 90% ！ 嗚 呼 ， 你 賺 100 元 ， 政 府 拿 走 90 元 ， 如 果 你 是 富 人 你 想 當 美 國 人 嗎 ？
今 日 ， 許 多 人 都 喜 歡 把 目 前 的 金 融 海 嘯 與 1929 年 開 始 的 大 蕭 條 比 較 ， 當 時 的 羅 斯 福 總 統 上 任 時 所 面 對 的 局 面 就 與 奧 巴 馬 明 年 初 將 面 臨 的 局 面 差 不 多 ， 奧 巴 馬 會 向 富 人 抽 多 重 的 稅 呢 ？
大 行 也 轉 唱 好
除 了 抽 稅 ， 政 府 另 外 兩 個 方 法 找 錢 就 是 發 行 債 券 與 印 鈔 票 ， 美 國 政 府 已 發 行 10 萬 億 美 元 的 債 券 ， 再 大 量 發 行 債 券 ， 賣 給 誰 ？ 中 國 也 買 不 起 萬 億 美 元 的 債 券 。 還 有 ， 現 在 美 國 政 府 出 面 挽 救 兩 房 、 AIG 及 花 旗 銀 行 ， 這 四 家 企 業 的 債 務 已 變 相 成 了 國 債 。 美 國 國 債 太 多 了 ， 多 得 驚 人 ， 最 後 ， 最 大 的 可 能 性 就 是 印 鈔 票 ， 半 年 前 ， 我 們 談 通 脹 ， 今 日 我 們 談 通 縮 ， 半 年 後 ， 我 們 會 不 會 再 談 通 脹 ？ 如 果 美 國 政 府 如 此 大 量 的 印 鈔 票 ， 請 不 要 驚 訝 半 年 後 通 脹 突 然 又 成 了 傳 媒 頭 條 新 聞 。
谢国忠：股价已经足够便宜了 巴菲特都抄底了
如果美国经济倾覆，其它国家也决计无法幸免，世界各国必须同心协力才能战胜这次金融危机
欧洲和亚洲现在必须采取行动来拯救全球经济，在北京召开的亚欧首脑会议已经错过了一次黄金机会——时间被浪费在讨论长期命题上，如构建新的世界经济架构，而不是聚焦于各国在世界经济局势的稳定上应该扮演怎样的角色。
11月15日，在华盛顿特区召开的世界经济峰会应该着力讨论如何维持经济体的稳定，而不能继续浪费时间在“应该谁来负责任”或者“未来应该是什么样的”这些问题上。
如今的市场上弥漫着诸如“大萧条”、“饭碗”、“战争”等词汇，这样的消极情绪会让事情变得更加糟糕。一个未被关注的事实是，我们正在面对的问题可能并没有想象得那么严重：即使是此次危机的风暴中心美国，目前其损失达到了其GDP的规模，但这种情况也远远无法与日本经济崩溃时的损失相比——当年的数字是GDP的三倍。
与10多年前的日本经济危机相比，由于金融全球化，这次危机蔓延得更快也更加广泛。盎格鲁撒克逊模式的完全市场化特点使得这个经济泡沫破灭之后，其资产贬值的速度快而猛烈到无法控制的地步，这也是为什么这场危机看起来如此可怕。
此次危机的深度和广度很可能将颠覆全球化的努力，并带来一场时日久远的低迷。萧条则会使保护主义抬头，当每个国家都采取这种控制措施的时候，全球经济这张大饼就会萎缩得更厉害。萧条带来的政治不稳定甚至可能带来战争——一种国家用来转移公众注意力的好手段。
战争会让经济下滑更快，这样的恶性循环之前已经多次扮演了摧毁世界的角色，这种发展态势应该并且必须被阻止。欧洲和亚洲应该首先施行总量在其GDP5%左右的财政刺激政策，接下来将它们的庞大外汇储备从美国政府债券上脱身，转而投入股市，尤其是美国股市。如果这两项措施能够被执行，世界经济可以更快的稳固。只有在此之后，我们才可以集中于重建经济结构来防止下一次危机。
这是一次盎格鲁撒克逊式的债务危机，这种经济体过度举债的另一面就是它的债权国持有了10万亿美元左右的外汇储备。未破灭之前的资产泡沫使得盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家有足够的资本来举债，这同时造成了它们每年1万亿美元的贸易逆差。
这些逆差正是来源于欧洲和亚洲国家的供给——短期看来，每一个主要国家都是泡沫的一部分，而不单单指美国。要想解决问题，每个人都有责任。
这次的泡沫破灭之后，盎格鲁撒克逊模式势必迎来一个长期的低迷时期，副产品之一就是贸易赤字的大幅缩减——很可能超过一半。即使这些国家能够通过降低利率和实行扩张的财政政策来暂时缓解颓势，这一主题也不会改变。
因此，其它国家不论采取何种经济政策，都将面临国际贸易的巨大市场缩减，除非拓展出足够的国内需求，否则它们也将面临大规模衰退。
另一个有趣的观点是观察资产贬值的财富效应。50万亿美元的账面损失将会带来相当于2.5万亿到3万亿美元，或4%至5%的总需求减少。这将会使目前的经济发展速度至少放缓一半。但是，需求紧缩具有乘数效应，这将带来更具规模的需求缩小。即便是全球经济增加2万亿美元的财政刺激，似乎仍然不可能缩小这种连锁效应。
这些刺激措施应该是让欧洲和亚洲允许美国减少贸易赤字。对于亚欧国家来说，除了增加需求刺激，更加紧要的一件事情就是增加对于盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家的风险投资。此外，由于其市场过高的杠杆率，最佳办法是放弃美国国债，转而购买指数型基金等产品。
盎格鲁撒克逊国家的资本缺乏和发展中国家的巨额外汇储备是硬币的两面。除非中国、日本和石油输出国组织成员采取行动，盎格鲁撒克逊国家将会面临严厉的紧缩，从而给每一个国家带来贸易萎缩的深重痛苦。
另外，对于信奉价值投资的投资者而言，股价已经足够便宜了。这正是沃伦·巴菲特现在正在做的，也是日本央行、中国人民银行和其它机构应该做的，这能够拯救这个世界，同时也能让投资者得益。
全球经济已经着火，每一个国家的政府都应投身于救火，现在是行动的时候了。
欧洲和亚洲现在必须采取行动来拯救全球经济，在北京召开的亚欧首脑会议已经错过了一次黄金机会——时间被浪费在讨论长期命题上，如构建新的世界经济架构，而不是聚焦于各国在世界经济局势的稳定上应该扮演怎样的角色。
11月15日，在华盛顿特区召开的世界经济峰会应该着力讨论如何维持经济体的稳定，而不能继续浪费时间在“应该谁来负责任”或者“未来应该是什么样的”这些问题上。
如今的市场上弥漫着诸如“大萧条”、“饭碗”、“战争”等词汇，这样的消极情绪会让事情变得更加糟糕。一个未被关注的事实是，我们正在面对的问题可能并没有想象得那么严重：即使是此次危机的风暴中心美国，目前其损失达到了其GDP的规模，但这种情况也远远无法与日本经济崩溃时的损失相比——当年的数字是GDP的三倍。
与10多年前的日本经济危机相比，由于金融全球化，这次危机蔓延得更快也更加广泛。盎格鲁撒克逊模式的完全市场化特点使得这个经济泡沫破灭之后，其资产贬值的速度快而猛烈到无法控制的地步，这也是为什么这场危机看起来如此可怕。
此次危机的深度和广度很可能将颠覆全球化的努力，并带来一场时日久远的低迷。萧条则会使保护主义抬头，当每个国家都采取这种控制措施的时候，全球经济这张大饼就会萎缩得更厉害。萧条带来的政治不稳定甚至可能带来战争——一种国家用来转移公众注意力的好手段。
战争会让经济下滑更快，这样的恶性循环之前已经多次扮演了摧毁世界的角色，这种发展态势应该并且必须被阻止。欧洲和亚洲应该首先施行总量在其GDP5%左右的财政刺激政策，接下来将它们的庞大外汇储备从美国政府债券上脱身，转而投入股市，尤其是美国股市。如果这两项措施能够被执行，世界经济可以更快的稳固。只有在此之后，我们才可以集中于重建经济结构来防止下一次危机。
这是一次盎格鲁撒克逊式的债务危机，这种经济体过度举债的另一面就是它的债权国持有了10万亿美元左右的外汇储备。未破灭之前的资产泡沫使得盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家有足够的资本来举债，这同时造成了它们每年1万亿美元的贸易逆差。
这些逆差正是来源于欧洲和亚洲国家的供给——短期看来，每一个主要国家都是泡沫的一部分，而不单单指美国。要想解决问题，每个人都有责任。
这次的泡沫破灭之后，盎格鲁撒克逊模式势必迎来一个长期的低迷时期，副产品之一就是贸易赤字的大幅缩减——很可能超过一半。即使这些国家能够通过降低利率和实行扩张的财政政策来暂时缓解颓势，这一主题也不会改变。
因此，其它国家不论采取何种经济政策，都将面临国际贸易的巨大市场缩减，除非拓展出足够的国内需求，否则它们也将面临大规模衰退。
另一个有趣的观点是观察资产贬值的财富效应。50万亿美元的账面损失将会带来相当于2.5万亿到3万亿美元，或4%至5%的总需求减少。这将会使目前的经济发展速度至少放缓一半。但是，需求紧缩具有乘数效应，这将带来更具规模的需求缩小。即便是全球经济增加2万亿美元的财政刺激，似乎仍然不可能缩小这种连锁效应。
这些刺激措施应该是让欧洲和亚洲允许美国减少贸易赤字。对于亚欧国家来说，除了增加需求刺激，更加紧要的一件事情就是增加对于盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家的风险投资。此外，由于其市场过高的杠杆率，最佳办法是放弃美国国债，转而购买指数型基金等产品。
盎格鲁撒克逊国家的资本缺乏和发展中国家的巨额外汇储备是硬币的两面。除非中国、日本和石油输出国组织成员采取行动，盎格鲁撒克逊国家将会面临严厉的紧缩，从而给每一个国家带来贸易萎缩的深重痛苦。
另外，对于信奉价值投资的投资者而言，股价已经足够便宜了。这正是沃伦·巴菲特现在正在做的，也是日本央行、中国人民银行和其它机构应该做的，这能够拯救这个世界，同时也能让投资者得益。
全球经济已经着火，每一个国家的政府都应投身于救火，现在是行动的时候了。
Thursday, November 27, 2008
价值投资 做好股票的收藏家
投资要大气
记者：“您的投资回报很高，您是如何做到的？”
李剑：“主要是我持有的公司质地不错，而我又握住不放。但也要承认，有运气的成分：A股股改后这两年涨的太凶了。我不希望这样。我希望好股也应慢慢涨，不要让我有要卖的念头。”
记者：“现在学价值投资的人很多。您对他们有什么建议？”
李剑：“投资要大气一些，选股要严格一些，赚钱要耐心一些。我认为，投资要大气这五个字很重要，否则学价值投资就学不到精华。学价值投资当然比学技术分析和听小道消息好得多。
投资要大气包括这么几点，首先是在思想意识上要有远大目标。
第二点是眼界要高，这是第一点的顺延。我们要挑选的应该是极优秀的公司，不只是在行业中最佳，而且要在国内市场中最佳。
第三点是不要在操作上讲究小的技巧，什么高抛低吸，什么止损，什么底部顶部。更不要去计较小的利益，比如一点差价呀，波段呀。
第四点就是心理稳定，不去理会大盘的波动涨跌，也不要去预测短期的走势。”
记者：“您的意思是技术分析的不确定性很大吗？”
李剑：“是的。你看波浪理论最为典型，大浪里面有小浪，小浪下面有细浪，走向永远有无数种可能。”
股不惊人誓不休
记者：“听说您有一句很酷的话，叫作‘股不惊人誓不休！’请问什么样的股票才是惊人的股呢？”
李剑：“我想大概有这样两层意思，一是它的涨幅能达到一百倍以上。第二层意思是它须要‘万千宠爱在一身’，就是要拥有多种独一无二的竞争优势。”
记者：“一百倍！听起来是有些惊人！具体应该怎么来选择这样的优秀上市公司呢？是不是要多看财务报表？”
李剑：“我首先要说读财务报表只是价值投资的一个小的方面，这方面我自己就走了一段弯路，把眼睛弄的更差了不说，还差点钻进牛角尖里去。注意研读财务报表只是表明关心基本面，这与专看K线图和听小道消息者确实不一样，但这还不算是价值投资，更不等于是学巴菲特。我认为，调查和思考企业的重大问题，比如持续竞争优势问题，盈利模式问题，未来利润增长点问题，管理层问题等等，才是价值投资首先要关心的几个问题。这些问题财务报表上没有，或者说不直接反映。”
记者：“那要从哪些方面去分析？”
李剑：“首先考虑公司有没有独一无二的竞争优势。这个‘独一无二’极其重要，你会一下子就把优势公司和一般公司筛选出来。我有个习惯，如果我用半个小时都找不出一个‘独一无二’出来，我就要放弃它了，尽管它可能看起来股价较低。如果是股友问我某只股票怎么样，我一般也是先反问：它有什么独一无二的优势吗？”
记者：“您说的独一无二的竞争优势，是不是就是指核心竞争力呢？”
李剑：“包括核心竞争力，但不光是核心竞争力。严格说，核心竞争力是管理科学的概念，管理学是科学，投资则是科学与艺术的结合。在投资学上，独一无二的竞争优势含义要丰富得多。”
记者：“哦，您是说独一无二的竞争优势有很多种，是吗？”
李剑：“我归纳了一下，大概有五种吧。虽然它们互相之间有一点重合或者互为因果，但为了思路清晰，还是分类叙述为好。
第一种应该是垄断优势。按照经济学上的‘垄断’的含义，是指单一的出卖人或少数几个出卖人控制着某一个行业的生产或销售。我喜欢用自己的话说，就是独家生意。当然，这种垄断必须是价格不受管制的垄断。”
记者：“那么第二种优势呢？”
李剑：“第二种应该是资源优势。资源就是与人类社会发展有关的、能被利用来产生使用价值并影响劳动生产率的诸要素。很多公司都拥有各自的资源。资源的关键在于稀缺，按照稀缺的程度可以分成不同的等级。我最喜欢的是具有独占性质的资源优势的公司。
第三种就是能力技术优势了，也就是大家讲的最多的核心竞争力。这个比较好理解。能力指的是公司团队在决策、研发、生产、管理、营销等方面的能力。
第四种应该是政策优势。政策优势主要是指政府为加强相关产业的战略位置，制订相关有利于发展的行业政策与相关法规，使相关产业形成某种具有限制意义的优势。”
记者：“那么第五种呢？”
李剑：“还有一种是行业优势。行业分析是我们投资者作出投资抉择的很重要的一步，有时甚至是投资成功的先决条件。因为有些行业牛股成群，你投资的赢面高；有些行业却牛股稀少，你投资获胜的概论低。”
记者：“拥有了您说的其中一种独一无二的竞争优势，是不是就可以买入这家公司呢？”
李剑：“不，这还远远不够。我的意思是，有了其中一种独一无二的竞争优势就有了关注的前提了。接下来要考虑的是这种优势能不能形成极强的赢利能力？我们投资股票，最重要的一点就是看它有没有良好的收益，所有的优势最终也还得落实在收益上。”
记者：“您认为极为优秀的公司平均每年的利润增长率至少应该是多少呢？”
李剑：“我前面说过‘股不惊人誓不休’。好股票应该具有数十倍以上的成长潜力和前景，平均每年的利润增长率不能低于20％，能超过30％就更好。”
记者：“有了某种独一无二的竞争优势，又有极强的赢利能力，是不是够条件了呢？”
李剑：“还不够，还要看它的优势和盈利能力能不能长期保持。也就是通常所说的持续竞争优势。这一点难度更高，更有技术含量。”
记者：“您一直没有谈到价格，价格不太重要吗？”
李剑：“价格当然重要，好公司加上好价格才是好股票。”
耐心是一种美德
记者：“接下来该是谈收藏的问题了。您好像是一个特别有耐心的人吧？您的一些股票五年多没动一下，您怎么能守得住？”
李剑：“投资股票和其他事情不一样，你不长期持有就很难稳赚不赔，很难成就一番事业。”
记者：“怎样把握不要卖呢？”
李剑：“既然是精心挑选的好公司的股票，那你就要像收藏家一样把它收藏起来。没有卖出的那一天。因为长期而言，股市永远向上，特别是优势企业的股票。”
记者：“难道涨得很高了也不卖吗？”
李剑：“有些东西说说容易，比如高抛低吸，实际操作时很难判断什么是高，什么是低。这些是自己能力圈之外的东西。”
记者：“也会有公司因为基本面变坏而从此一蹶不振吧？如果出现这种情况，您坚持不卖的观点是不是就遇到了强有力的反驳呢？”
李剑：“公司一蹶不振的情况也不能完全排除。但我们还是可以坚持不卖。这似乎不太符合巴菲特的思想。但我仍然认为这是对的，而且这是经过认真思考和实践过的。我很喜欢彼得林奇的看法，假如你有一个10只股票的长期投资组合，中间有一只股票出了问题，由于选的都是极为优秀的公司，那么我们持有的其他9个股票还是在给你赚大钱。进一步说，一个优秀公司的基本面出了问题，你可能事后才知道，而这时股价已经下跌了不少，这时卖出很难说是正确的行动。”
记者：“当我们发现了更好的公司股票，可不可以卖呢？”
李剑：“这种情况不叫卖了，叫换股，因为总的投资数量和投资金额没有变，还是在收藏好公司的股票。只要不是太频繁，这是可以考虑的。”
记者：“您已经谈了严格挑和不要卖，对随时买没有讲到，而且，这里还有个问题，随时买，又有价格问题了。万一买到高价的股票怎么办？”
李剑：“前面说过，价格问题是个复杂的问题，甚至是可遇不可求的问题，能力圈之外的问题。不要动太多的脑筋去想买入时机的问题。不同的人参加工作有先后，入市时间有早晚，一旦决定投资，难免会买到高点低点，但有了严格买和不要卖，即使是不那么幸运，最终还是会大获全胜。”
记者：“‘严格挑、随时买、不要卖’是您成功的秘诀吗？”
李剑：“我还谈不上什么成功，不过是在严格挑方面下的工夫多一点，收藏起来耐心一点而已。”
记者：“您的投资回报很高，您是如何做到的？”
李剑：“主要是我持有的公司质地不错，而我又握住不放。但也要承认，有运气的成分：A股股改后这两年涨的太凶了。我不希望这样。我希望好股也应慢慢涨，不要让我有要卖的念头。”
记者：“现在学价值投资的人很多。您对他们有什么建议？”
李剑：“投资要大气一些，选股要严格一些，赚钱要耐心一些。我认为，投资要大气这五个字很重要，否则学价值投资就学不到精华。学价值投资当然比学技术分析和听小道消息好得多。
投资要大气包括这么几点，首先是在思想意识上要有远大目标。
第二点是眼界要高，这是第一点的顺延。我们要挑选的应该是极优秀的公司，不只是在行业中最佳，而且要在国内市场中最佳。
第三点是不要在操作上讲究小的技巧，什么高抛低吸，什么止损，什么底部顶部。更不要去计较小的利益，比如一点差价呀，波段呀。
第四点就是心理稳定，不去理会大盘的波动涨跌，也不要去预测短期的走势。”
记者：“您的意思是技术分析的不确定性很大吗？”
李剑：“是的。你看波浪理论最为典型，大浪里面有小浪，小浪下面有细浪，走向永远有无数种可能。”
股不惊人誓不休
记者：“听说您有一句很酷的话，叫作‘股不惊人誓不休！’请问什么样的股票才是惊人的股呢？”
李剑：“我想大概有这样两层意思，一是它的涨幅能达到一百倍以上。第二层意思是它须要‘万千宠爱在一身’，就是要拥有多种独一无二的竞争优势。”
记者：“一百倍！听起来是有些惊人！具体应该怎么来选择这样的优秀上市公司呢？是不是要多看财务报表？”
李剑：“我首先要说读财务报表只是价值投资的一个小的方面，这方面我自己就走了一段弯路，把眼睛弄的更差了不说，还差点钻进牛角尖里去。注意研读财务报表只是表明关心基本面，这与专看K线图和听小道消息者确实不一样，但这还不算是价值投资，更不等于是学巴菲特。我认为，调查和思考企业的重大问题，比如持续竞争优势问题，盈利模式问题，未来利润增长点问题，管理层问题等等，才是价值投资首先要关心的几个问题。这些问题财务报表上没有，或者说不直接反映。”
记者：“那要从哪些方面去分析？”
李剑：“首先考虑公司有没有独一无二的竞争优势。这个‘独一无二’极其重要，你会一下子就把优势公司和一般公司筛选出来。我有个习惯，如果我用半个小时都找不出一个‘独一无二’出来，我就要放弃它了，尽管它可能看起来股价较低。如果是股友问我某只股票怎么样，我一般也是先反问：它有什么独一无二的优势吗？”
记者：“您说的独一无二的竞争优势，是不是就是指核心竞争力呢？”
李剑：“包括核心竞争力，但不光是核心竞争力。严格说，核心竞争力是管理科学的概念，管理学是科学，投资则是科学与艺术的结合。在投资学上，独一无二的竞争优势含义要丰富得多。”
记者：“哦，您是说独一无二的竞争优势有很多种，是吗？”
李剑：“我归纳了一下，大概有五种吧。虽然它们互相之间有一点重合或者互为因果，但为了思路清晰，还是分类叙述为好。
第一种应该是垄断优势。按照经济学上的‘垄断’的含义，是指单一的出卖人或少数几个出卖人控制着某一个行业的生产或销售。我喜欢用自己的话说，就是独家生意。当然，这种垄断必须是价格不受管制的垄断。”
记者：“那么第二种优势呢？”
李剑：“第二种应该是资源优势。资源就是与人类社会发展有关的、能被利用来产生使用价值并影响劳动生产率的诸要素。很多公司都拥有各自的资源。资源的关键在于稀缺，按照稀缺的程度可以分成不同的等级。我最喜欢的是具有独占性质的资源优势的公司。
第三种就是能力技术优势了，也就是大家讲的最多的核心竞争力。这个比较好理解。能力指的是公司团队在决策、研发、生产、管理、营销等方面的能力。
第四种应该是政策优势。政策优势主要是指政府为加强相关产业的战略位置，制订相关有利于发展的行业政策与相关法规，使相关产业形成某种具有限制意义的优势。”
记者：“那么第五种呢？”
李剑：“还有一种是行业优势。行业分析是我们投资者作出投资抉择的很重要的一步，有时甚至是投资成功的先决条件。因为有些行业牛股成群，你投资的赢面高；有些行业却牛股稀少，你投资获胜的概论低。”
记者：“拥有了您说的其中一种独一无二的竞争优势，是不是就可以买入这家公司呢？”
李剑：“不，这还远远不够。我的意思是，有了其中一种独一无二的竞争优势就有了关注的前提了。接下来要考虑的是这种优势能不能形成极强的赢利能力？我们投资股票，最重要的一点就是看它有没有良好的收益，所有的优势最终也还得落实在收益上。”
记者：“您认为极为优秀的公司平均每年的利润增长率至少应该是多少呢？”
李剑：“我前面说过‘股不惊人誓不休’。好股票应该具有数十倍以上的成长潜力和前景，平均每年的利润增长率不能低于20％，能超过30％就更好。”
记者：“有了某种独一无二的竞争优势，又有极强的赢利能力，是不是够条件了呢？”
李剑：“还不够，还要看它的优势和盈利能力能不能长期保持。也就是通常所说的持续竞争优势。这一点难度更高，更有技术含量。”
记者：“您一直没有谈到价格，价格不太重要吗？”
李剑：“价格当然重要，好公司加上好价格才是好股票。”
耐心是一种美德
记者：“接下来该是谈收藏的问题了。您好像是一个特别有耐心的人吧？您的一些股票五年多没动一下，您怎么能守得住？”
李剑：“投资股票和其他事情不一样，你不长期持有就很难稳赚不赔，很难成就一番事业。”
记者：“怎样把握不要卖呢？”
李剑：“既然是精心挑选的好公司的股票，那你就要像收藏家一样把它收藏起来。没有卖出的那一天。因为长期而言，股市永远向上，特别是优势企业的股票。”
记者：“难道涨得很高了也不卖吗？”
李剑：“有些东西说说容易，比如高抛低吸，实际操作时很难判断什么是高，什么是低。这些是自己能力圈之外的东西。”
记者：“也会有公司因为基本面变坏而从此一蹶不振吧？如果出现这种情况，您坚持不卖的观点是不是就遇到了强有力的反驳呢？”
李剑：“公司一蹶不振的情况也不能完全排除。但我们还是可以坚持不卖。这似乎不太符合巴菲特的思想。但我仍然认为这是对的，而且这是经过认真思考和实践过的。我很喜欢彼得林奇的看法，假如你有一个10只股票的长期投资组合，中间有一只股票出了问题，由于选的都是极为优秀的公司，那么我们持有的其他9个股票还是在给你赚大钱。进一步说，一个优秀公司的基本面出了问题，你可能事后才知道，而这时股价已经下跌了不少，这时卖出很难说是正确的行动。”
记者：“当我们发现了更好的公司股票，可不可以卖呢？”
李剑：“这种情况不叫卖了，叫换股，因为总的投资数量和投资金额没有变，还是在收藏好公司的股票。只要不是太频繁，这是可以考虑的。”
记者：“您已经谈了严格挑和不要卖，对随时买没有讲到，而且，这里还有个问题，随时买，又有价格问题了。万一买到高价的股票怎么办？”
李剑：“前面说过，价格问题是个复杂的问题，甚至是可遇不可求的问题，能力圈之外的问题。不要动太多的脑筋去想买入时机的问题。不同的人参加工作有先后，入市时间有早晚，一旦决定投资，难免会买到高点低点，但有了严格买和不要卖，即使是不那么幸运，最终还是会大获全胜。”
记者：“‘严格挑、随时买、不要卖’是您成功的秘诀吗？”
李剑：“我还谈不上什么成功，不过是在严格挑方面下的工夫多一点，收藏起来耐心一点而已。”
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
美国又有两家银行倒闭！
“美国又有两家银行倒闭”。这是一则新闻的标题。
这个怵目惊心的标题给读者的印象必然是：美国 经济完了。
在一般人的印象中，银行是最稳定的，如今连银行都倒了，还有什么不会倒的？
银行是靠公众人士的存款赚钱的。
全世界银行的资本适当比例(Capital adequacy)大同小异，都是8%。
这表示，银行拥有1令吉的资金(包括股本和储备金)，才可以接受12令吉的存款和借出12令吉。
没有公众人士的存款，光靠本身的资金，根本无法赚钱。
如果银行不稳定，谁还敢将钱存放在银行？
如今美国银行接二连三倒闭，难怪一般人有“美国完了”的感觉。
这种感觉，形成错误的印象。
这错误的印象，源自对美国银行认识不够。
马来西亚只有9家本地银行，即使1家倒闭了，后果已不堪设想。
美国今年到目前为止，已有19家银行倒闭，情况之糟，可想而知。
实际上，在美国，倒闭了19家银行，根本是芝麻小事，不值得大惊小怪，也不足以反映美国经济实况。
请看以下数字：在2007年底时：
美国商业银行总数：7283家。
资产1亿美元以下的有：3065家。
资产1亿至10亿元的有：3705家。
资产10亿元以上的有：513家。
在过去5年中，美国小银行的数目不断的减少。
在2003年时，美国有7,769家银行，到2007年时，只剩7282家，减少了487家，平均每年减少近100家，或是每3天就减少一家。
而减少的都是小银行，中大银行的数目实际上有增无减。
例如在2007年中，资产1亿元以下的银行就减少了180家，但资产1亿至10亿元的银行却增加了43家，10亿元以上的银行增加了19家。
这表示小银行不断的被中大银行拼呑了。
银行倒闭社会冲击微
就以本文开始时所提到的“又两家银行倒闭”中所提到的两家银行，其中一家存款为37亿元，总资产为51亿元；另一家更小，存款只有4亿5千万元，总资产只有5亿6千万元，属蚊型银行。
这两家银行都被别的银行收购了，存户的存款完好无损，所以，对社会的冲击微乎其微。
美国小银行减少，是司空见惯的事，不是大新闻。
如果你以为今年美国有19家银行倒闭(其实是被拼呑)，反映美国当前的经济情况，那就大错特错。
根据事实数据才可靠
我举这个例子，旨在说明一点：在解读新闻资讯时，如果知识不够的话，很容易被误导而形成错误的印象，导致错误的结论。
以错误的结论作出的投资决定，肯定也是错误的。
此之谓差之毫厘，失之千里。
惟有根据事实和数据，所达致的结论，才是可靠的。
但经济，尤其是金融业，错综复杂，又瞬息不变，要掌握事实和数据，又要加以分析，是极端困难的日子，绝大部份人都没有这种能力。
绝大部份的人，只根据不全的资讯，片面的评论，作出判断，难怪大部份判断都是错误的。
根据错误的判断，作出的投资决定，后果肯定是悲惨的。
为了减少错误，减低风险，我主张散户抓住以下五个原则：
⑴不要企图去抓时机(Timing)，因为根本没有人知道何时才是最低。
⑵坚守反向策略，在所有人都悲观时(如现在)，大胆买进股票。
⑶以企业的赚钱能力及资产价值，作为选股标准(目前大部份股票价值被低估)。
⑷只买五星级股票，作为长期投资。
⑸最好是买周息率(D/Y)这比银行定期存款利息高一倍的股票。
散户若能坚持以上五原则，可以做到胜多败少。
这个怵目惊心的标题给读者的印象必然是：美国 经济完了。
在一般人的印象中，银行是最稳定的，如今连银行都倒了，还有什么不会倒的？
银行是靠公众人士的存款赚钱的。
全世界银行的资本适当比例(Capital adequacy)大同小异，都是8%。
这表示，银行拥有1令吉的资金(包括股本和储备金)，才可以接受12令吉的存款和借出12令吉。
没有公众人士的存款，光靠本身的资金，根本无法赚钱。
如果银行不稳定，谁还敢将钱存放在银行？
如今美国银行接二连三倒闭，难怪一般人有“美国完了”的感觉。
这种感觉，形成错误的印象。
这错误的印象，源自对美国银行认识不够。
马来西亚只有9家本地银行，即使1家倒闭了，后果已不堪设想。
美国今年到目前为止，已有19家银行倒闭，情况之糟，可想而知。
实际上，在美国，倒闭了19家银行，根本是芝麻小事，不值得大惊小怪，也不足以反映美国经济实况。
请看以下数字：在2007年底时：
美国商业银行总数：7283家。
资产1亿美元以下的有：3065家。
资产1亿至10亿元的有：3705家。
资产10亿元以上的有：513家。
在过去5年中，美国小银行的数目不断的减少。
在2003年时，美国有7,769家银行，到2007年时，只剩7282家，减少了487家，平均每年减少近100家，或是每3天就减少一家。
而减少的都是小银行，中大银行的数目实际上有增无减。
例如在2007年中，资产1亿元以下的银行就减少了180家，但资产1亿至10亿元的银行却增加了43家，10亿元以上的银行增加了19家。
这表示小银行不断的被中大银行拼呑了。
银行倒闭社会冲击微
就以本文开始时所提到的“又两家银行倒闭”中所提到的两家银行，其中一家存款为37亿元，总资产为51亿元；另一家更小，存款只有4亿5千万元，总资产只有5亿6千万元，属蚊型银行。
这两家银行都被别的银行收购了，存户的存款完好无损，所以，对社会的冲击微乎其微。
美国小银行减少，是司空见惯的事，不是大新闻。
如果你以为今年美国有19家银行倒闭(其实是被拼呑)，反映美国当前的经济情况，那就大错特错。
根据事实数据才可靠
我举这个例子，旨在说明一点：在解读新闻资讯时，如果知识不够的话，很容易被误导而形成错误的印象，导致错误的结论。
以错误的结论作出的投资决定，肯定也是错误的。
此之谓差之毫厘，失之千里。
惟有根据事实和数据，所达致的结论，才是可靠的。
但经济，尤其是金融业，错综复杂，又瞬息不变，要掌握事实和数据，又要加以分析，是极端困难的日子，绝大部份人都没有这种能力。
绝大部份的人，只根据不全的资讯，片面的评论，作出判断，难怪大部份判断都是错误的。
根据错误的判断，作出的投资决定，后果肯定是悲惨的。
为了减少错误，减低风险，我主张散户抓住以下五个原则：
⑴不要企图去抓时机(Timing)，因为根本没有人知道何时才是最低。
⑵坚守反向策略，在所有人都悲观时(如现在)，大胆买进股票。
⑶以企业的赚钱能力及资产价值，作为选股标准(目前大部份股票价值被低估)。
⑷只买五星级股票，作为长期投资。
⑸最好是买周息率(D/Y)这比银行定期存款利息高一倍的股票。
散户若能坚持以上五原则，可以做到胜多败少。
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
今天的金融危机就是货币刺激政策恶果的明证
【背景】美联储或再降息，中国降息风一传再传。
11月19日公布的美联储上次议息会议纪要显示，美联储对经济前景的展望进一步悲观。这加剧了市场对美联储12月进一步降息的猜测。当日，联邦基金利率期货的引申概率显示，在2008年12月16日举行的议息会议上，美联储维持1%利率不变的可能性为4.2%；降息25个基点的概率为12.3%；降息 50个基点的概率为44.7%；降息75个基点的概率为38.8%。
中国自4万亿财政刺激计划公布以来，降息预期更加浓厚。但对降息的作用，也一直有不同意见。有人主张应一次性大幅降息，有人主张降息不应操之过急。
面对当前的世界形势，美国的政策及其结果，或许可以给我们提供一丝借鉴。那么，美国降息会产生何种结果？
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为，货币刺激政策相比财政刺激政策来说，虽看似没有成本，但并不能刺激需求。今天的金融危机就是格林斯潘货币政策的后果，如今的货币刺激政策浪潮，很可能导致未来几年的高通货膨胀。
对刚刚结束的G20华盛顿峰会的结果表示失望。各国没能达成一个协调性的财政刺激计划，基本上还是各自为政。这使全球协作化解危机的最后希望也破灭了。因为，在全球化时代，财政刺激的利益可能会由于贸易而外溢。只有全球经济体互相协调，推出刺激计划，才可能发挥功效。所以，很少有国家单独实行刺激计划。不幸的是，G20峰会没有做到。
与此相对，货币政策不太会产生外溢效应，之所以大部分国家都依赖货币刺激政策，除外溢效应原因外，主要还是因为它们的财政赤字已经很大，不想再惹上增发债券的（政治）-抵制。
货币刺激乍一看似乎没有什么成本，但是，减息不能刺激需求，因为资产缩水损害了家庭或企业进行借贷的基础，它的作用仅仅是通过降低持有成本，使银行处理坏账变得容易，并减轻银行出售不良资产的压力，延长调整时间。
货币刺激的负面作用可能不会立即显现，但将来就会浮出水面。格林斯潘年代的那些泡沫正来自他对货币刺激的嗜好，后果就是今天惨遭蹂躏的全球经济。目前这股货币刺激政策的浪潮，很可能导致未来几年的通货膨胀。目前，资产缩水的通缩效应是暂时的，随着企业利润降低、削减生产，需求疲弱导致的通缩效应将不复存在。货币供给增加后，会暂时存在银行，但是，长期来看，这些货币很可能通过意想不到的渠道释放出来。因此，大宗商品进入下一轮涨价周期，或是工会要求工资上涨时，货币供给增长的通胀效应就会释放出来。
泡沫时代，许多家庭和企业都借贷过度。现在有三种方式解决问题：第一，用时间来逐渐化解，像日本；第二，企业破产，像20世纪30年代的美国；第三，承受高通胀，像20世纪20年代的德国。美国还没想清楚自己要走哪条路，但肯定不会是日本那条路。美国人不会坚持偿付房供，这不是美国人的文化。他们要么让大批家庭和企业破产，要么就是忍受高通胀。美联储正在避免大批破产的出现，不断救援银行和非金融企业。因此，美国正离高通胀越来越近。
如果用通胀解决问题，需要政策做到透明和公平。央行应该公告其发行货币量，并将货币均匀发给国民。货币增长会立即推高人们的通胀预期。商品、服务价格以及工资将快速上行，实际的债务负担也会随着通胀上升而减轻。
未来，中国和美国会有更多共同的利益。美国已无力独自撑起全球经济，如果它与中国联手则可以做到这点。遗憾的是，两个国家都没有这种想法。
11月19日公布的美联储上次议息会议纪要显示，美联储对经济前景的展望进一步悲观。这加剧了市场对美联储12月进一步降息的猜测。当日，联邦基金利率期货的引申概率显示，在2008年12月16日举行的议息会议上，美联储维持1%利率不变的可能性为4.2%；降息25个基点的概率为12.3%；降息 50个基点的概率为44.7%；降息75个基点的概率为38.8%。
中国自4万亿财政刺激计划公布以来，降息预期更加浓厚。但对降息的作用，也一直有不同意见。有人主张应一次性大幅降息，有人主张降息不应操之过急。
面对当前的世界形势，美国的政策及其结果，或许可以给我们提供一丝借鉴。那么，美国降息会产生何种结果？
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为，货币刺激政策相比财政刺激政策来说，虽看似没有成本，但并不能刺激需求。今天的金融危机就是格林斯潘货币政策的后果，如今的货币刺激政策浪潮，很可能导致未来几年的高通货膨胀。
对刚刚结束的G20华盛顿峰会的结果表示失望。各国没能达成一个协调性的财政刺激计划，基本上还是各自为政。这使全球协作化解危机的最后希望也破灭了。因为，在全球化时代，财政刺激的利益可能会由于贸易而外溢。只有全球经济体互相协调，推出刺激计划，才可能发挥功效。所以，很少有国家单独实行刺激计划。不幸的是，G20峰会没有做到。
与此相对，货币政策不太会产生外溢效应，之所以大部分国家都依赖货币刺激政策，除外溢效应原因外，主要还是因为它们的财政赤字已经很大，不想再惹上增发债券的（政治）-抵制。
货币刺激乍一看似乎没有什么成本，但是，减息不能刺激需求，因为资产缩水损害了家庭或企业进行借贷的基础，它的作用仅仅是通过降低持有成本，使银行处理坏账变得容易，并减轻银行出售不良资产的压力，延长调整时间。
货币刺激的负面作用可能不会立即显现，但将来就会浮出水面。格林斯潘年代的那些泡沫正来自他对货币刺激的嗜好，后果就是今天惨遭蹂躏的全球经济。目前这股货币刺激政策的浪潮，很可能导致未来几年的通货膨胀。目前，资产缩水的通缩效应是暂时的，随着企业利润降低、削减生产，需求疲弱导致的通缩效应将不复存在。货币供给增加后，会暂时存在银行，但是，长期来看，这些货币很可能通过意想不到的渠道释放出来。因此，大宗商品进入下一轮涨价周期，或是工会要求工资上涨时，货币供给增长的通胀效应就会释放出来。
泡沫时代，许多家庭和企业都借贷过度。现在有三种方式解决问题：第一，用时间来逐渐化解，像日本；第二，企业破产，像20世纪30年代的美国；第三，承受高通胀，像20世纪20年代的德国。美国还没想清楚自己要走哪条路，但肯定不会是日本那条路。美国人不会坚持偿付房供，这不是美国人的文化。他们要么让大批家庭和企业破产，要么就是忍受高通胀。美联储正在避免大批破产的出现，不断救援银行和非金融企业。因此，美国正离高通胀越来越近。
如果用通胀解决问题，需要政策做到透明和公平。央行应该公告其发行货币量，并将货币均匀发给国民。货币增长会立即推高人们的通胀预期。商品、服务价格以及工资将快速上行，实际的债务负担也会随着通胀上升而减轻。
未来，中国和美国会有更多共同的利益。美国已无力独自撑起全球经济，如果它与中国联手则可以做到这点。遗憾的是，两个国家都没有这种想法。
Monday, November 24, 2008
Strong Rebound Coming in Next 3 Months: Dr. Doom
The sheer amount of money governments are pumping into the financial system will eventually lead to a very strong rally in beaten-down assets, investor Marc Faber said on CNBC Friday.
But Faber also warned that if the markets remain depressed as liquidity increases the result could be a depression worse than in 1929.
By and large asset markets are "terribly oversold" now, while investors are going overboard into the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys, Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"What you could see in the next three months is a very strong rebound in asset markets, in equities, followed by a selloff in bonds and eventually a selloff in the dollar," he said.
Governments and central banks around the world are providing liquidity and that will eventually have an impact, Faber said.
And once the buying starts the rally is likely to be "stronger than people expect" given that financial institutions are sitting on so much cash, he added.
"I think the intervention by the government in the past and at the present time has created more volatility, not less, and so right now we have deflation, we have colossal deflation in asset prices," he said, noting that equities alone have lost $30 trillion globally.
But "I assure you if you throw enough money at the system, eventually you can reflate, especially in the United States," Faber added.
Statistically a rebound should happen, but if it doesn't "the air is out" and the world faces an economy "worse than the depression of '29 to '32," he said.
But Faber also warned that if the markets remain depressed as liquidity increases the result could be a depression worse than in 1929.
By and large asset markets are "terribly oversold" now, while investors are going overboard into the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys, Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"What you could see in the next three months is a very strong rebound in asset markets, in equities, followed by a selloff in bonds and eventually a selloff in the dollar," he said.
Governments and central banks around the world are providing liquidity and that will eventually have an impact, Faber said.
And once the buying starts the rally is likely to be "stronger than people expect" given that financial institutions are sitting on so much cash, he added.
"I think the intervention by the government in the past and at the present time has created more volatility, not less, and so right now we have deflation, we have colossal deflation in asset prices," he said, noting that equities alone have lost $30 trillion globally.
But "I assure you if you throw enough money at the system, eventually you can reflate, especially in the United States," Faber added.
Statistically a rebound should happen, but if it doesn't "the air is out" and the world faces an economy "worse than the depression of '29 to '32," he said.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
How to Value Equities - The Discounted Cash Flow (Dividends) way! - Example:SingPost
A reader asked us to write about valuing equities using the Discounted Cash Flow method sometime back.
There are many forms of DCF analysis and we will be looking at discounting dividends. This is most appropriate for valuing stable companies (for example in a mature industry) and those that have a consistent payout of dividends. We will be using SingPost as an example. See below for the yearly dividends they give out. We started from year 2005.
Based on the table above, it is logical to assume that they will be giving out at least S$0.0625 in dividends every year from 2009 and beyond. So here comes the DCF formula. Figure 1
The foundation of this formula is that the value of a asset ( stock in this case) is the present value of its expected future cash flows ( dividends in this case). In the above formula, it is taking the present value of all the dividends up to infinity years ahead and bringing it back to the present value, now. People then compare this present value now with the current stock price to see if its cheap or not. The dividends for a company could grow in time, therefore, the variable g takes into account the dividends growth.
SGDividends is going to derive a formula which will be easier than easy to use. The derivation is below in figure 2, but you can skip this part and jump to the final formula in Figure 3.
Figure 2
You can read up on the sum of infinity through thislink. From the above maths in figure 2, we derive the following formula in figure 3 from the equation in figure 1. Isn't it much easier to use now?
Figure 3
So let's put all this in practice, shall we?
For Singpost:
Dividends for current period ( or most recent period) , Do= S$0.0625.
As it is a mature industry, assuming dividends is growing slowly at a rate, g = 2%.
Let's assume your required rate of return, K = 6% ( We use 6% just to follow the rate from DBS preferential shares. It can be anything you wish because its YOUR required rate of return.)
Value of stock = 0.0625 / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.5625
Price currently as of 21 Nov 2008 as listed on SGX = $0.76.
Ok the formula should be Do (1+K) / (k-g).
So the value should be 1.65.
[0.0625(1+0.06)] / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.65625
Don't go rushing to buy this stock yet as we have said before there are many assumptions. Firstly, there is no guarantee that SingPost will continue giving out dividends or dividends will grow. There is no guarantee that SingPost will last forever. It is theoretical and you will realise that is not appropriate for all companies, since some companies don't give out dividends.
There are many forms of DCF analysis and we will be looking at discounting dividends. This is most appropriate for valuing stable companies (for example in a mature industry) and those that have a consistent payout of dividends. We will be using SingPost as an example. See below for the yearly dividends they give out. We started from year 2005.
Based on the table above, it is logical to assume that they will be giving out at least S$0.0625 in dividends every year from 2009 and beyond. So here comes the DCF formula. Figure 1
The foundation of this formula is that the value of a asset ( stock in this case) is the present value of its expected future cash flows ( dividends in this case). In the above formula, it is taking the present value of all the dividends up to infinity years ahead and bringing it back to the present value, now. People then compare this present value now with the current stock price to see if its cheap or not. The dividends for a company could grow in time, therefore, the variable g takes into account the dividends growth.
SGDividends is going to derive a formula which will be easier than easy to use. The derivation is below in figure 2, but you can skip this part and jump to the final formula in Figure 3.
Figure 2
You can read up on the sum of infinity through thislink. From the above maths in figure 2, we derive the following formula in figure 3 from the equation in figure 1. Isn't it much easier to use now?
Figure 3
So let's put all this in practice, shall we?
For Singpost:
Dividends for current period ( or most recent period) , Do= S$0.0625.
As it is a mature industry, assuming dividends is growing slowly at a rate, g = 2%.
Let's assume your required rate of return, K = 6% ( We use 6% just to follow the rate from DBS preferential shares. It can be anything you wish because its YOUR required rate of return.)
Value of stock = 0.0625 / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.5625
Price currently as of 21 Nov 2008 as listed on SGX = $0.76.
Ok the formula should be Do (1+K) / (k-g).
So the value should be 1.65.
[0.0625(1+0.06)] / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.65625
Don't go rushing to buy this stock yet as we have said before there are many assumptions. Firstly, there is no guarantee that SingPost will continue giving out dividends or dividends will grow. There is no guarantee that SingPost will last forever. It is theoretical and you will realise that is not appropriate for all companies, since some companies don't give out dividends.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
穷人增加负债，富人增加资产
想要理财致富我们一定要先了解一些道理：
为什么穷人会穷？为什么富人会富？
穷人会穷是因为穷人只知道增加负债。富人会富是因为富人会知道增加资产。
什么是负债？怎样增加负债？
什么是资产？怎样增加资产？
要解答这些问题，我们就得从头讲起：
我们辛勤工作赚来的钱就是血汗钱。我们如何运用我们的血汗钱将决定我们的未来。是穷是富就是从这里开始。
每个人都有自己的生活方式，我们是通过我们的思想给自己定位：我们是谁？
如果我们是医生，我们怎么可以坐电单车？
如果我们是教员，我们怎么可以坐马赛地？
这就是我们的思想给自己的定位。
如果我们认为我们的社会地位高，我们的生活方式就得维持在高的层次。
如果我们认为我们只是个普通人，我们的生活方式就可维持在低的层次。
高层次的生活方式就需要比较高档的生活物质。例如：名贵车，名表，名牌服装等等。
要维持高层次的生活方式是需要很多钱的。
所以高薪人士总是觉得钱不够用，幸亏他们的信用比低薪人士好，借贷也就比较方便，久而久之就掉进了负债的深渊里去了。
信用卡刷一刷就是最典型的增加负债的方法。
负债是要还利息的，尤其是信用卡的利息更是惊人。
银行和LOAN SHARK并没什么分别，我们把我们一生中赚来的血汗钱都给了他们。
不管你的薪水有多高，只要你把赚来的血汗钱花在增加负债的项目上，你就注定要做穷人了。
旧车换新车就是一个增加负债的例子。
向银行贷款装修房子也是增加负债的例子。
负债增加，利息负担就重，能够用来增加资产的钱就越少。也就是这个理由薪水高的穷人比比皆是。
要致富我们的血汗钱就要用在增加资产方面。
什么是资产？
能够增值的东西就是资产。房屋，股票和定存都是资产。
怎样增加资产？
最容易的方法就是养成投资股票的习惯。把赚来的钱用来投资股票，使自己没有闲钱去做无谓的消费。
当然对于那些已经负债累累的高薪人士，还债已经喘不过气了，那有闲钱来投资股票？
期望通过增加资产来致富岂不是成为梦想？
要用怎样的理财方式才能消除负债？
其实唯一能够有效的解除负债是从改变自己本身的思想开始。
不要把自己定位得太高，这样才有机会降低自己的生活水平。
生活水平的降低才能够减少开支。开支减少负债额才会下降，才会消失。
如果月入五千，就生活得像月入三千。月入三千，就生活得像月入两千。
唯有这样子才能够消除债务，使自己重新踏上致富的大道。
不要指望中彩票来致富，那是不实际的。
为什么穷人会穷？为什么富人会富？
穷人会穷是因为穷人只知道增加负债。富人会富是因为富人会知道增加资产。
什么是负债？怎样增加负债？
什么是资产？怎样增加资产？
要解答这些问题，我们就得从头讲起：
我们辛勤工作赚来的钱就是血汗钱。我们如何运用我们的血汗钱将决定我们的未来。是穷是富就是从这里开始。
每个人都有自己的生活方式，我们是通过我们的思想给自己定位：我们是谁？
如果我们是医生，我们怎么可以坐电单车？
如果我们是教员，我们怎么可以坐马赛地？
这就是我们的思想给自己的定位。
如果我们认为我们的社会地位高，我们的生活方式就得维持在高的层次。
如果我们认为我们只是个普通人，我们的生活方式就可维持在低的层次。
高层次的生活方式就需要比较高档的生活物质。例如：名贵车，名表，名牌服装等等。
要维持高层次的生活方式是需要很多钱的。
所以高薪人士总是觉得钱不够用，幸亏他们的信用比低薪人士好，借贷也就比较方便，久而久之就掉进了负债的深渊里去了。
信用卡刷一刷就是最典型的增加负债的方法。
负债是要还利息的，尤其是信用卡的利息更是惊人。
银行和LOAN SHARK并没什么分别，我们把我们一生中赚来的血汗钱都给了他们。
不管你的薪水有多高，只要你把赚来的血汗钱花在增加负债的项目上，你就注定要做穷人了。
旧车换新车就是一个增加负债的例子。
向银行贷款装修房子也是增加负债的例子。
负债增加，利息负担就重，能够用来增加资产的钱就越少。也就是这个理由薪水高的穷人比比皆是。
要致富我们的血汗钱就要用在增加资产方面。
什么是资产？
能够增值的东西就是资产。房屋，股票和定存都是资产。
怎样增加资产？
最容易的方法就是养成投资股票的习惯。把赚来的钱用来投资股票，使自己没有闲钱去做无谓的消费。
当然对于那些已经负债累累的高薪人士，还债已经喘不过气了，那有闲钱来投资股票？
期望通过增加资产来致富岂不是成为梦想？
要用怎样的理财方式才能消除负债？
其实唯一能够有效的解除负债是从改变自己本身的思想开始。
不要把自己定位得太高，这样才有机会降低自己的生活水平。
生活水平的降低才能够减少开支。开支减少负债额才会下降，才会消失。
如果月入五千，就生活得像月入三千。月入三千，就生活得像月入两千。
唯有这样子才能够消除债务，使自己重新踏上致富的大道。
不要指望中彩票来致富，那是不实际的。
Monday, November 17, 2008
巴菲特：股市将在经济复苏前大涨
最近几个星期一定让许多投资者备感煎熬，一边是全球股市的阴晴不定，时而暴涨时而暴跌；一边是不断创出新低的股票和基金，而巴菲特两周前吹响的号角言犹在耳。
能不能抄底，底在哪，一个投资者如果计较于这些问题的真正答案，那几乎是个不可能完成的任务，"大部分投资者一生都沉迷于'猜顶和探底'的游戏，这也就是为什么大部分投资者终其一生都没有跨越财富自由的门槛"。
在普通投资者看来是 "抄底"的举动在巴菲特看来其实是在适当的时候"出手"，他坦言抄底不是他强项。从历史上数次"抄底"来看，巴菲特是一个左侧交易者，他对于底部的判断有时要比市场早半年。
每每在"抄底"时机问题上，从1974年10月第一次预测股市到现在，巴老的回答始终朴素而诙谐，巴菲特在1974年接受《福布斯》采访时说："我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业，这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上，投手扔来了47美元的通用股票、39美元的美国钢铁公司股票！没有惩罚，只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球，然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候，大迈一步将球击向空中。"那时，道琼斯指数只有580点。
今年10月17日的回答一样充满巴菲特式的幽默与智慧，"我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在一个月或一年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。但有一种可能，即在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前，股市会上涨，而且可能是大涨。因此，如果你想等到知更鸟报春，那春天就快结束了。"
每到华尔街凄风惨雨的时候，人们总是盼望着听到巴菲特的声音，每到巴菲特慷慨的告诉大家是时候买股票了，人们又满腹狐疑，甚至还有些人暗地里为巴菲特计算着浮亏。
我们何必执着于巴菲特的预言是否能在一周或一个月里实现？如果这样巴菲特就不是股神了，而是占卜先生了。底部是一个区间，不是一个精准的点，且对于具体的每一个股票而言又情况各异。无数投资经历证明，一生只要把握住几个大的趋势，哪怕只是一两个，就会很不同了。
能不能抄底，底在哪，一个投资者如果计较于这些问题的真正答案，那几乎是个不可能完成的任务，"大部分投资者一生都沉迷于'猜顶和探底'的游戏，这也就是为什么大部分投资者终其一生都没有跨越财富自由的门槛"。
在普通投资者看来是 "抄底"的举动在巴菲特看来其实是在适当的时候"出手"，他坦言抄底不是他强项。从历史上数次"抄底"来看，巴菲特是一个左侧交易者，他对于底部的判断有时要比市场早半年。
每每在"抄底"时机问题上，从1974年10月第一次预测股市到现在，巴老的回答始终朴素而诙谐，巴菲特在1974年接受《福布斯》采访时说："我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业，这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上，投手扔来了47美元的通用股票、39美元的美国钢铁公司股票！没有惩罚，只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球，然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候，大迈一步将球击向空中。"那时，道琼斯指数只有580点。
今年10月17日的回答一样充满巴菲特式的幽默与智慧，"我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在一个月或一年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。但有一种可能，即在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前，股市会上涨，而且可能是大涨。因此，如果你想等到知更鸟报春，那春天就快结束了。"
每到华尔街凄风惨雨的时候，人们总是盼望着听到巴菲特的声音，每到巴菲特慷慨的告诉大家是时候买股票了，人们又满腹狐疑，甚至还有些人暗地里为巴菲特计算着浮亏。
我们何必执着于巴菲特的预言是否能在一周或一个月里实现？如果这样巴菲特就不是股神了，而是占卜先生了。底部是一个区间，不是一个精准的点，且对于具体的每一个股票而言又情况各异。无数投资经历证明，一生只要把握住几个大的趋势，哪怕只是一两个，就会很不同了。
真正的股神一直就是这样神
异常罕见的金融危机席卷全球。美股一片重挫暴跌。
悲观绝望中，不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而，最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元，击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的，而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间，这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值，资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观，总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手，投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后，股票价格仍然继续下跌，就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样，又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此，原来也是个看不准确具体大势的，原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作，人们确实能够发现，在其买进的八成以上的股票，都是主动买套型的操作，包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等，乃至，离我们最近的中国石油H股，它所带给巴菲特的，也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念，他成为了世界首富，
他的每一笔买进，是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行，而他每一次的卖出，都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的，就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候，人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜，以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字，以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们，或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧，他们长年累月地忙着著书立传，五湖四海招收学徒弟子，一边讲的是满口仁义道德，一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两，而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业，老人家还立下遗嘱，把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神，更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模，股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师，不要吝啬，我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人，更多的，我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛，读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音，顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
悲观绝望中，不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而，最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元，击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的，而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间，这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值，资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观，总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手，投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后，股票价格仍然继续下跌，就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样，又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此，原来也是个看不准确具体大势的，原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作，人们确实能够发现，在其买进的八成以上的股票，都是主动买套型的操作，包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等，乃至，离我们最近的中国石油H股，它所带给巴菲特的，也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念，他成为了世界首富，
他的每一笔买进，是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行，而他每一次的卖出，都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的，就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候，人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜，以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字，以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们，或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧，他们长年累月地忙着著书立传，五湖四海招收学徒弟子，一边讲的是满口仁义道德，一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两，而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业，老人家还立下遗嘱，把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神，更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模，股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师，不要吝啬，我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人，更多的，我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛，读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音，顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
金融股票是不能沾的
中国的金融股票，是股市里面的大头，也是大盘主要的指标，被贴上了蓝筹的标签，很多害怕风险的人，均喜欢这些股票，持有这些股票的人，一般也是长线和价值投资的爱好者，但是本人认为这些股票在近几年内是不能沾的。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻，我们的几大银行上市，都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票，市值超过万亿，而他们取得股票的成本非常低，即使在股市这样低迷的今天，他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益，而这些持有股票的境外金融机构，在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重，均在破产的边缘挣扎，在这样的背景下，这些股票解禁，他们能够不疯狂抛售吗？而他们的三年锁定期，明年就会到期了，因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多，政府会救市买入，但是事情若果真如此，那就是国家的悲哀了，拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子，本身就很腌臜，而这样的做法，还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备，而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备，本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多，这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资，届时迅速变现是有困难的，而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月，大家想一下工行、中行何时上市，就该明白，这些金融股的小非抛售，会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期，因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济，利息高企，财务成本必将不可负担，就拿铁路投资为例，每年要有1000多亿的投资利息，这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润，因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略，而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率，降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入，所以以后的数年，金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题，我们的金融业也损失巨大，但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为，不允许提列大比例的损失准备金，所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上，真实性不够好，比国际上要滞后很多，随着危机的加剧，以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失，国际金融操作的损失，国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会，似乎要给金融股票带来利好，但是我认为无论是怎样的利好，都是诱多，这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金，但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说，都只能算作是诱饵，近几年的金融股票，本人认为是绝对不能沾的，因为这是赌博，你赌不赢庄家的，对于长线和价值投资的人，更是如此。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻，我们的几大银行上市，都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票，市值超过万亿，而他们取得股票的成本非常低，即使在股市这样低迷的今天，他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益，而这些持有股票的境外金融机构，在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重，均在破产的边缘挣扎，在这样的背景下，这些股票解禁，他们能够不疯狂抛售吗？而他们的三年锁定期，明年就会到期了，因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多，政府会救市买入，但是事情若果真如此，那就是国家的悲哀了，拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子，本身就很腌臜，而这样的做法，还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备，而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备，本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多，这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资，届时迅速变现是有困难的，而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月，大家想一下工行、中行何时上市，就该明白，这些金融股的小非抛售，会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期，因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济，利息高企，财务成本必将不可负担，就拿铁路投资为例，每年要有1000多亿的投资利息，这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润，因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略，而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率，降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入，所以以后的数年，金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题，我们的金融业也损失巨大，但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为，不允许提列大比例的损失准备金，所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上，真实性不够好，比国际上要滞后很多，随着危机的加剧，以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失，国际金融操作的损失，国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会，似乎要给金融股票带来利好，但是我认为无论是怎样的利好，都是诱多，这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金，但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说，都只能算作是诱饵，近几年的金融股票，本人认为是绝对不能沾的，因为这是赌博，你赌不赢庄家的，对于长线和价值投资的人，更是如此。
Saturday, November 15, 2008
华侨投资研究主管：股市明年下半年才会反弹
尽管海指已跌到相当低的水平，极不稳定的市场情绪料将继续把股市保持在目前的低水平，直到明年下半年才“柳暗花明”，并吸引买家进场。
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计，本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平，最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场，出现300至400点的回弹。
她说：“（本地股价）本益比已跌至8到9倍，与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱，各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场，海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了，也许最多再下跌100至150点，在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场，然后大力回弹300至400点。不过，在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市，她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”：第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上，如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等，构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股，包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等，其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”，则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票，如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”，也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出，美国联储局大幅减息，导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面，近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软，直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说：“届时，英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止，坏消息的出炉势头回稳，亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了，市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升，实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1％，但前提是美国经济不会再度出错，以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况，要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说：“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长，而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复，但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案，她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样，着重于投资在基础建设项目上，“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业，林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说：“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在，比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划，许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下，我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计，本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平，最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场，出现300至400点的回弹。
她说：“（本地股价）本益比已跌至8到9倍，与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱，各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场，海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了，也许最多再下跌100至150点，在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场，然后大力回弹300至400点。不过，在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市，她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”：第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上，如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等，构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股，包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等，其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”，则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票，如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”，也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出，美国联储局大幅减息，导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面，近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软，直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说：“届时，英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止，坏消息的出炉势头回稳，亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了，市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升，实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1％，但前提是美国经济不会再度出错，以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况，要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说：“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长，而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复，但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案，她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样，着重于投资在基础建设项目上，“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业，林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说：“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在，比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划，许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下，我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
Second Chance Properties
Co announced their 3Q08 results
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Second Chance an undiscovered property play
ONE of the more interesting corporate developments over the past few weeks may have gone unnoticed by most investors - an offer to listed retail-cum-property group Second Chance Properties (SCP) to buy the company's entire property portfolio.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
DIVIDEND STOCKS: Good for bear markets
DIVIDEND STOCKS may sound like a boring option to investors. But as uncertainty clouds over the stock market, they may prove useful after all.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Second Chance Properties Ltd
Fundamentals
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
Volume 248.0K
50 Days Average Volume 128
100 Days Average Volume 117
200 Days Average Volume 146
Average Price 0.34
Technical
Relative Price Strength -54.02
Moving Average (50) 0.27
Moving Average (100) 0.32
Moving Average (300) 0.38
RSI (14) 44.27
Beta (Weekly) 0.69
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
Volume 248.0K
50 Days Average Volume 128
100 Days Average Volume 117
200 Days Average Volume 146
Average Price 0.34
Technical
Relative Price Strength -54.02
Moving Average (50) 0.27
Moving Average (100) 0.32
Moving Average (300) 0.38
RSI (14) 44.27
Beta (Weekly) 0.69
SECOND CHANCE PROPERTIES: Dividend yields of 8-9%
ONE OF the most enterprising and wealthiest Malay businessmen in Singapore is Mr Mohd Salleh Marican, 58, who has a net worth of around $125 million just based on his stake in listed companies.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
学习巴菲特不如走在巴菲特的身后
作为世界股神，巴菲特的言行总是格外引人注目。如近期巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资就举世瞩目。而上周五巴菲特发表在《纽约时报》上唱多的文章，时下更是成为投资者谈论的热门话题。面对巴菲特的做多唱多，要不要追随着巴菲特的脚步一起做多股市也就成了一些投资者必须面对的问题。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神，当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上，巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点，作为中国股市的投资者来说，巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程，已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度，如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了，可以肯定，站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为，巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特，作为一般的投资者，甚至就是国内的机构投资者（如投资基金），都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的，而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月，甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久，巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股；随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里，中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏，巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复，但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法，是一般的投资者所做不到的，投资基金面临着赚钱的压力，更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资，这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股，其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股，即便是两家公司破产了，巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好，巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内，以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来，一旦5年内股市行情走好，巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资，一般的投资者显然没有这种机会，而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且，巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买，使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说： “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力，我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多，并不等同于抄底，巴菲特自己也坦言： “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限，要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此，同样的投资，巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明，但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此，学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特，还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则，并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大，这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以，投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的，涨要涨过头，跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处，就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神，当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上，巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点，作为中国股市的投资者来说，巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程，已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度，如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了，可以肯定，站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为，巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特，作为一般的投资者，甚至就是国内的机构投资者（如投资基金），都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的，而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月，甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久，巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股；随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里，中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏，巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复，但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法，是一般的投资者所做不到的，投资基金面临着赚钱的压力，更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资，这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股，其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股，即便是两家公司破产了，巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好，巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内，以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来，一旦5年内股市行情走好，巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资，一般的投资者显然没有这种机会，而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且，巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买，使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说： “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力，我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多，并不等同于抄底，巴菲特自己也坦言： “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限，要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此，同样的投资，巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明，但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此，学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特，还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则，并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大，这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以，投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的，涨要涨过头，跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处，就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
学习巴菲特
首先，我们来了解一下巴菲特每天看什么。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了，痴迷到什么程度了呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票，大家把心都用在炒股上面，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。
我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天，当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，基金经理是彼得·林奇，他专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员，打了招呼，然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看，房间不大，只有二十多平方米，左边是一排书架，上面有几本书，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。"哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？"巴菲特一笑说："我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头："真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。"你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：A买什么股票；B买入价格。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了，痴迷到什么程度了呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票，大家把心都用在炒股上面，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。
我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天，当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，基金经理是彼得·林奇，他专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员，打了招呼，然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看，房间不大，只有二十多平方米，左边是一排书架，上面有几本书，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。"哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？"巴菲特一笑说："我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头："真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。"你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：A买什么股票；B买入价格。
Thursday, November 13, 2008
擇肥而噬 長線持有
長線投資是否賺錢的保證，「傳統智慧」提供肯定性答案，可是，別和股票談戀愛（遑論結婚）的說法亦有很多信徒，特別是大熊市的時候─當然反對者也大有人在，他們會說畢非德和他的「愛股」不是長廝守白頭偕老而大有斬獲嗎？此雖為「孤例」，卻足以推翻前說。筆者向來傾向後者，惟劍橋大學克萊爾書院本月初作出一項以40年為期的投資（將近半世紀，「長期」是沒問題的），令筆者有新的想法。
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院，因其捐款者狄．克萊爾夫人（Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360）而得名，她為英皇愛德華一世（1239-1307）的孫女，三嫁，當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後，只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」，「從婚姻市場淡出」，此後終生從事慈善事業，劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中，克萊爾無論從校舍、花園（草坪）及學生人數（去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名），都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營，克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊，不算富裕，其基金管理手法，則以保守穩健名於時（劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊，克萊爾並無損失），基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議（市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議），其資金分配是股票（主要是指數基金；長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道，見3月12日本欄的分析）佔七成、地產（主要是店舖）為三成，不過，隨市場變化，此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」，是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候，毅然「清倉」，賣掉全部持有股票相關投資（只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票）。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中，該基金每年錄得百分之七增長，表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健，看其投資顧問名單，識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯（A. Smithers），上世紀末一度大紅大紫；另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙（D. Swensen）……。
史密化斯（倫敦同名顧問公司主席）是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一，他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐，絕非「幸運之神眷顧」，而是他向來奉「杜賓ｑ比率」（Tobin's q，筆者過去譯「杜賓的ｑ」）為圭臬，令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂ｑ比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比，引伸至股市，杜賓認為在「自有資金」（即投資者集體持有的資金）比率高的社會，股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估；假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財（如機器等生產工具）之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」，則公司可輕易從市場集資；購進股票的投資者，必會履行作為股東的權利，督促該投資計劃（集資的目的）完成……。基於這種分析，投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距，若股價較低，即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」，便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準，因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財，他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估，此外還有商譽的估值更難，而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯，在大牛市中援用「杜賓ｑ比率」，雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺，「賺少好多」，但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議，向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊，引起投資界的注意；貸款數額雖是小數目，但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院，遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半，不少股價低於「重置成本」，因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機；它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃，向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09（如通脹率百分之十，利息為百分之11點09）。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算，至公元2048年，克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊，而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯，克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者，相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣，「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭（J. Cochrane）昨天（12日）在《紐約時報》論股市，認為那些「有現金在手」（less leveraged）、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者，現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法，和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資，最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後，投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資，但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」，投資者一無所有；如今一旦爆發戰爭，難免核彈擲來擲去，意味無論你投資什麼，在什麼市場投資，財富都會人間蒸發。因此，現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事！
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院，因其捐款者狄．克萊爾夫人（Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360）而得名，她為英皇愛德華一世（1239-1307）的孫女，三嫁，當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後，只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」，「從婚姻市場淡出」，此後終生從事慈善事業，劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中，克萊爾無論從校舍、花園（草坪）及學生人數（去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名），都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營，克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊，不算富裕，其基金管理手法，則以保守穩健名於時（劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊，克萊爾並無損失），基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議（市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議），其資金分配是股票（主要是指數基金；長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道，見3月12日本欄的分析）佔七成、地產（主要是店舖）為三成，不過，隨市場變化，此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」，是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候，毅然「清倉」，賣掉全部持有股票相關投資（只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票）。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中，該基金每年錄得百分之七增長，表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健，看其投資顧問名單，識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯（A. Smithers），上世紀末一度大紅大紫；另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙（D. Swensen）……。
史密化斯（倫敦同名顧問公司主席）是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一，他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐，絕非「幸運之神眷顧」，而是他向來奉「杜賓ｑ比率」（Tobin's q，筆者過去譯「杜賓的ｑ」）為圭臬，令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂ｑ比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比，引伸至股市，杜賓認為在「自有資金」（即投資者集體持有的資金）比率高的社會，股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估；假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財（如機器等生產工具）之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」，則公司可輕易從市場集資；購進股票的投資者，必會履行作為股東的權利，督促該投資計劃（集資的目的）完成……。基於這種分析，投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距，若股價較低，即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」，便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準，因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財，他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估，此外還有商譽的估值更難，而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯，在大牛市中援用「杜賓ｑ比率」，雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺，「賺少好多」，但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議，向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊，引起投資界的注意；貸款數額雖是小數目，但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院，遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半，不少股價低於「重置成本」，因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機；它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃，向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09（如通脹率百分之十，利息為百分之11點09）。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算，至公元2048年，克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊，而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯，克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者，相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣，「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭（J. Cochrane）昨天（12日）在《紐約時報》論股市，認為那些「有現金在手」（less leveraged）、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者，現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法，和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資，最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後，投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資，但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」，投資者一無所有；如今一旦爆發戰爭，難免核彈擲來擲去，意味無論你投資什麼，在什麼市場投資，財富都會人間蒸發。因此，現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事！
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
你为何不能成为富翁?
哈佛大学第一堂经济学课只教两个概念，一是花钱要区分 “ 投资 ” 行为或 “ 消费 ” 行为；二是每月先储蓄30%的工资，剩下的才用于消费。
哈佛教出来的人，几乎都很富有，并非因为他们是名校出身，而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里，似乎还有些懵懂，再举几个例子，就会恍然大悟。
譬如：10年前，甲和乙是本科的同学，在社会工作5年后，不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房，乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天，甲的房子市值为60万元；乙的二手车，市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产，明显有了很大差异，但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为，钱其实没有花出去，只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为，钱是花出去的，给了别人，二手车用过10年后，几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起，A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券，几年后现金翻番；A买名牌皮鞋、西装，几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董，现在已经价值连城；而A爱好唱歌、跳舞，这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票，A说买那玩意干吗？人家买房子，A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时，A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时，A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ，你说A能成为富翁吗？
很多人认为，甲的收入为每月1.5万元，乙的收入为每月8000元，甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义，并不是你每月工资挣得多，而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ，剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍，照说美国人应比中国人富有，实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡，每个月花完钱后，会欠下不少债。在美国，理财规划师的理财讲座，时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样，一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍，他们自然比我们富有，其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道，在台湾，地铁单程是12元，上海是3元；在台湾，午饭平均要50元，上海是10元；在台湾租一套房6500元，上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾，假如每月挣15000元，减去房租6500元，交通费1000元，吃饭3000元，交税1500元，一点点娱乐2000元，每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师，每月工资8000元，减去交税1000元，减去房租1000元，交通费200元，吃饭1000元，娱乐1000元，每月剩下3800元。显而易见，到底谁更富有？
A没存过一分钱，结婚成家后，给老婆的也不是存款，而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条：储蓄30%的工资是硬指标，A算了算，工作到现在，至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
哈佛教出来的人，几乎都很富有，并非因为他们是名校出身，而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里，似乎还有些懵懂，再举几个例子，就会恍然大悟。
譬如：10年前，甲和乙是本科的同学，在社会工作5年后，不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房，乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天，甲的房子市值为60万元；乙的二手车，市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产，明显有了很大差异，但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为，钱其实没有花出去，只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为，钱是花出去的，给了别人，二手车用过10年后，几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起，A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券，几年后现金翻番；A买名牌皮鞋、西装，几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董，现在已经价值连城；而A爱好唱歌、跳舞，这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票，A说买那玩意干吗？人家买房子，A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时，A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时，A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ，你说A能成为富翁吗？
很多人认为，甲的收入为每月1.5万元，乙的收入为每月8000元，甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义，并不是你每月工资挣得多，而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ，剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍，照说美国人应比中国人富有，实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡，每个月花完钱后，会欠下不少债。在美国，理财规划师的理财讲座，时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样，一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍，他们自然比我们富有，其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道，在台湾，地铁单程是12元，上海是3元；在台湾，午饭平均要50元，上海是10元；在台湾租一套房6500元，上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾，假如每月挣15000元，减去房租6500元，交通费1000元，吃饭3000元，交税1500元，一点点娱乐2000元，每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师，每月工资8000元，减去交税1000元，减去房租1000元，交通费200元，吃饭1000元，娱乐1000元，每月剩下3800元。显而易见，到底谁更富有？
A没存过一分钱，结婚成家后，给老婆的也不是存款，而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条：储蓄30%的工资是硬指标，A算了算，工作到现在，至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
投资的成败关键是对人性的超越和驾驭
2008年10月底,中国平安公布季报,公司因为巨额投资损失,陷入亏损,与此同时股价也跌破了20元。作为一个中国平安的持有人,当股价在很短的时间里就从40元跌破20元,实话实说,凌通心里绝对没有愉快可言,但是从40元到20元的整个过程中, 我们心里完全没有担心,对于这种价格的急速下跌, 凌通始终认为，这是不正确的，我们也并没有因为它的股价下跌,丝毫怀疑过自己的判断,在那种山崩地裂的下跌过程中,凌通看好中国平安的判断没有任何变化。因此，在平安股价下跌的过程中,一直保持了比较平和的平常心。
当中国平安股价跌破20元时,这个时候买入的念头很强烈地产生出来。因为破20元也是重大的价格变化,是过去完全没有想到的，中国平安股价跌破20元一下就触发了凌通买入的欲望,但在这种买入的欲望产生之后,心灵深处一个奇怪声音和力量也快速地同步出现,这个力量总之是阻挡买入想法的,这种力量是从身体内部钻出来的,是一种莫名的东西,它制约着想要买入平安的那种愿望,它使得买入行为不再变得坚决果断了,并且最终这股力量使得在20元买入平安的初始愿望没有变成行动. 这种力量并不是简单的恐惧,因为从始到终凌通做为平安的持有人,伴随着股价下跌,始终没有发生过担心,所以并没有恐惧。
这股力量很强大,它在你就要做出决策的那一瞬间,快速地从你身体内部产生出来,一下子把你基于知识和事实所形成的判断制约住了,使得你不能够完全按照你的理性判断果断地行动.它以一种说不清的方式快速地扩散到大脑中,压制理性判断所形成的决策,然后使你不由自主放弃了理性判断.
这种东西凌通反思应该是人性,人性不是理性的范畴,它是与理性截然相反和截然对抗的。（人性为什么要约束理性,要排斥理性,这真是个奇怪的复杂的难题,希望人类早日认识这问题）人的任何行为都是理性和人性的博弈后形成的行为。人的任何行为都是理性与人性共同决定的。在大部分情况下,尤其是重大利益决策时上理性和人性的博弈，理性常常败给人性。因此，在处理重大利益的决策过程中,你首先必须形成正确的理性判断,如果本身就没做调查研究和思考,就不可能有正确的结论.也永远不会有正确的行为。但是有了理性的结论,最终执行这个决策的过程中, 把正确决策变成正确的行为，理性还需要和人性对抗,在执行理性的判断时,还必须通过人性这道关，人性是你把正确的主观判断落实到实处的必经环节。人性总是要干扰和阻挡你，大部分好的理性判断，最终在人性的干扰下不能实现，正确的判断是基础，但最后的关键是过人性关。 过了人性关，就是最高境界的投资者，过不了人性关，你就会功败垂成，这就是为什么说投资最关键的是超越人性。
凌通认为如何认识人性如何控制人性，如何超越人性，这是一门比如何估值都重要的学问.它的价值和作用目前还没有被投资者认识到.市场上也没有关于人性规律的研究,也没有如何应对人性的理论,所以加快对人性规律的研究,是投资领域的重大课题,投资人认识自己的人性特征,超越自己的人性是重中之重。
凌通也在思考更进一步的问题,人性是人的本性,如果你能超越和驾驭了人性,是否意味着你就不是人了,换句话说,人是否不能超越人性，只能认识人性把人性控制和压缩在一定范围,让人性和理性和谐相处,互相不要有过大的影响。
人到底能不能完全超越人性？谁能回答者问题？
当中国平安股价跌破20元时,这个时候买入的念头很强烈地产生出来。因为破20元也是重大的价格变化,是过去完全没有想到的，中国平安股价跌破20元一下就触发了凌通买入的欲望,但在这种买入的欲望产生之后,心灵深处一个奇怪声音和力量也快速地同步出现,这个力量总之是阻挡买入想法的,这种力量是从身体内部钻出来的,是一种莫名的东西,它制约着想要买入平安的那种愿望,它使得买入行为不再变得坚决果断了,并且最终这股力量使得在20元买入平安的初始愿望没有变成行动. 这种力量并不是简单的恐惧,因为从始到终凌通做为平安的持有人,伴随着股价下跌,始终没有发生过担心,所以并没有恐惧。
这股力量很强大,它在你就要做出决策的那一瞬间,快速地从你身体内部产生出来,一下子把你基于知识和事实所形成的判断制约住了,使得你不能够完全按照你的理性判断果断地行动.它以一种说不清的方式快速地扩散到大脑中,压制理性判断所形成的决策,然后使你不由自主放弃了理性判断.
这种东西凌通反思应该是人性,人性不是理性的范畴,它是与理性截然相反和截然对抗的。（人性为什么要约束理性,要排斥理性,这真是个奇怪的复杂的难题,希望人类早日认识这问题）人的任何行为都是理性和人性的博弈后形成的行为。人的任何行为都是理性与人性共同决定的。在大部分情况下,尤其是重大利益决策时上理性和人性的博弈，理性常常败给人性。因此，在处理重大利益的决策过程中,你首先必须形成正确的理性判断,如果本身就没做调查研究和思考,就不可能有正确的结论.也永远不会有正确的行为。但是有了理性的结论,最终执行这个决策的过程中, 把正确决策变成正确的行为，理性还需要和人性对抗,在执行理性的判断时,还必须通过人性这道关，人性是你把正确的主观判断落实到实处的必经环节。人性总是要干扰和阻挡你，大部分好的理性判断，最终在人性的干扰下不能实现，正确的判断是基础，但最后的关键是过人性关。 过了人性关，就是最高境界的投资者，过不了人性关，你就会功败垂成，这就是为什么说投资最关键的是超越人性。
凌通认为如何认识人性如何控制人性，如何超越人性，这是一门比如何估值都重要的学问.它的价值和作用目前还没有被投资者认识到.市场上也没有关于人性规律的研究,也没有如何应对人性的理论,所以加快对人性规律的研究,是投资领域的重大课题,投资人认识自己的人性特征,超越自己的人性是重中之重。
凌通也在思考更进一步的问题,人性是人的本性,如果你能超越和驾驭了人性,是否意味着你就不是人了,换句话说,人是否不能超越人性，只能认识人性把人性控制和压缩在一定范围,让人性和理性和谐相处,互相不要有过大的影响。
人到底能不能完全超越人性？谁能回答者问题？
理性
在股票市场上，情绪的力量往往比理性的力量更为强大，贪婪和狂热推高股价，使其远远超过内在价值，恐惧和悲观又压低股价，使其远远低于内在价值。短期看，投资者的感情对股价的冲击力，超过企业的基本面。
投资者最大的敌人不是股票市场，而是他自己，当人们贪婪或恐惧时，往往以愚蠢的价格买入或卖出股票。即使投资者具有数学，财务，会计方面的超人才能，如果不能理性分析，很好地控制自己的情绪，仍难以从投资中获益。
在给大学生的公开演讲中，巴菲特提到了理性在自己成功中的重要性：
“ 我的成功并非源于高智商，我相信你们听到这一点，一定很高兴。我认为最重要的是理性，我总是把知识和才能看作是发动机的马力，但是输出功率，也就是发动机的工作效率，则取决于理性。为什么一些聪明的人在做事情的时候，不能获得他们理应得到的结果呢？这涉及到习惯，性格和气质等方面的因素，涉及到行为是否合乎理性？是不是自己在妨碍自己？ ”
与巴非特同时代的人，许多人比他更聪明，更努力，工作时间更长，但又有几人取得他这样伟大的成就？原因就在于：他比别人更理性，处理事情时，自我控制能力更强，不让感情左右理智。
牛顿不可谓智商不高，但投资成绩一塌糊涂，爱因斯旦更是绝对的天才，他能算出天体运行的轨迹，但却算不出股票短期的涨跌。二位天才亏就亏在，智商有余，理性不足。
投资，让我们的感情和激情走开，让我们的冷血和理性充盈。我想，诗人和作家的投资成绩，也许赶不上历史学家和哲学家。
知识可以战胜恐惧，打败贪婪。当你通过学习，了解和掌握了"股价始终围绕企业内在波动 “ 这一股市永恒的规律后。（股票是狗，内在价值是主人，跑远了，它又回来。）深知股票的长期价值取决于企业的经济运行，而不是市场的每天行情，涨跌无常，你就会从容地坦然面对。一切全在掌握中，多份知识，少份盲动，多份理性，少份贪怕。
巴非特告诉我们：当适当的气质与智力相结合时，你就可能得到理性的行为。智力和气质有一定的先天成分，但还是可以通过后天的努力加以改善和提高，尤其是气质。
正确的事，不断做，简单的事，重复做，养成习惯，形成自然，气质和理性也就不请自来。
投资者最大的敌人不是股票市场，而是他自己，当人们贪婪或恐惧时，往往以愚蠢的价格买入或卖出股票。即使投资者具有数学，财务，会计方面的超人才能，如果不能理性分析，很好地控制自己的情绪，仍难以从投资中获益。
在给大学生的公开演讲中，巴菲特提到了理性在自己成功中的重要性：
“ 我的成功并非源于高智商，我相信你们听到这一点，一定很高兴。我认为最重要的是理性，我总是把知识和才能看作是发动机的马力，但是输出功率，也就是发动机的工作效率，则取决于理性。为什么一些聪明的人在做事情的时候，不能获得他们理应得到的结果呢？这涉及到习惯，性格和气质等方面的因素，涉及到行为是否合乎理性？是不是自己在妨碍自己？ ”
与巴非特同时代的人，许多人比他更聪明，更努力，工作时间更长，但又有几人取得他这样伟大的成就？原因就在于：他比别人更理性，处理事情时，自我控制能力更强，不让感情左右理智。
牛顿不可谓智商不高，但投资成绩一塌糊涂，爱因斯旦更是绝对的天才，他能算出天体运行的轨迹，但却算不出股票短期的涨跌。二位天才亏就亏在，智商有余，理性不足。
投资，让我们的感情和激情走开，让我们的冷血和理性充盈。我想，诗人和作家的投资成绩，也许赶不上历史学家和哲学家。
知识可以战胜恐惧，打败贪婪。当你通过学习，了解和掌握了"股价始终围绕企业内在波动 “ 这一股市永恒的规律后。（股票是狗，内在价值是主人，跑远了，它又回来。）深知股票的长期价值取决于企业的经济运行，而不是市场的每天行情，涨跌无常，你就会从容地坦然面对。一切全在掌握中，多份知识，少份盲动，多份理性，少份贪怕。
巴非特告诉我们：当适当的气质与智力相结合时，你就可能得到理性的行为。智力和气质有一定的先天成分，但还是可以通过后天的努力加以改善和提高，尤其是气质。
正确的事，不断做，简单的事，重复做，养成习惯，形成自然，气质和理性也就不请自来。
巴菲特 號召入市
筆者註: 全球金融已經一體化. 由美國次按演變而來的金融海嘯由北美傳導至歐洲, 以致亞洲等新興市場, 然而,銀行業乃百業之母, 為各企業資金的主要來源, 一旦心臟衰竭, 血液供應必然大大減弱, 身體各器官的正常運作也會受到負面影響. 於是,原本屬於金融業的系統性風險無可避免擴大至全面的經濟風險. 如果將金融業視為上遊企業(以資金供應鏈的角度), 上游有事,下游各企業(需要銀行提供資金的企業)豈能獨善其身?當金融公司倒閉的新聞出現一段時間後, 其他下游企業出現倒閉的新聞也是意料中事.在銀行收緊信貸額度之後, 下游企業無可避免要停止擴充甚至收縮業務, 減低營運成本甚至裁員.失業率上升將影響消費市道, 繼而影響企業盈利, 企業盈利的倒退甚至虧損將影響企業的還款能力, 繼而影響銀行的資產質素.惡性循環的效果是壞消息不斷的出現.
I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This
description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed top hilanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire networth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
筆者註: 巴菲特個人財富之中, 大部分是持有Berkshire Hathaway. 其次就是持有美國政府的債券. 可以睇到 巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)一樣, 不喜歡持有現金. 而當股價吸引時, 甚至會100%持股.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
筆者註: 巴菲特的名句: "在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼" 的確是投資至勝之道.問題是, 幾多人可以實行到? 然而, 並非所有公司都可以逆市買入. 當中, 要避開的, 包括高負債高槓桿操作的公司, 以及沒有競爭優勢的公司.對於那些體質健壯的公司, 雖然短期盈利會受損, 但是, 5年後, 10年後, 盈利回復活力以及再創盈利新記錄是可以預期的.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely,however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so,well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
筆者註: 短期股市的走勢難以預測. 然而, 如果投資者等待經濟出現明顯復甦的跡象時, 那時股市極可能已經上升不少了, 因為股市的上升將發生在經濟復甦之前.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
筆者註: 巴菲特再次強調, 壞消息是投資者的好朋友, 因為不利消息可以為投資者提供較低的進場價格.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century,the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
筆者註: 有些倒楣的投資者發覺自己通常是高買低賣. 巴菲特提醒你, 問問自己, 是否見到好消息才有信心去高追, 而見到壞消息就不安地沽出.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless,I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.”Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
筆者註:不要持有現金然後期望(觀望)政府推出利好政策救市, 因為政府的救市方案將導致通貨膨脹. 長遠來看, 持有現金是非常低回報的資產,因為會被通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力. 相反, 持有股票長遠的回報將大大勝過持有現金.巴菲特認為現時堅持持有現金的投資者是在賭緊自己能夠掌握股市的走勢, 和升跌的韻律, 是在等待令自己心安的好消息.但是巴菲特認為現時就是買股票的時候.
中文版
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉成美股。 為什麼？有個簡單的買進規則：別人貪婪時應恐懼，別人恐懼時應貪婪。現在瀰漫的是恐懼感，即使投資老手也逃不過。投資人提防借貸比率過高或競爭力弱的企業是對的，但對許多體質健全公司的長期展望憂心忡忡卻沒道理。這些企業的獲利偶爾會打嗝，但多數大公司會在五年、十年或二十年後締造新的獲利紀錄。
有一點要說清楚：我無法預測股市的短期走勢，不知一個月或一年後股價會漲或跌。然而，行情可能在市場信心轉強或經濟改觀前就走高，也許漲幅可觀。你若要等知更鳥啼鳴，春天可能已結束。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。
長期來說，股市新聞會變好。在20世紀，美國歷經過兩次世界大戰和其他代價慘重的軍事衝突，以及大蕭條、十幾次衰退和金融恐慌，還有幾次石油危機、一波大流感，及總統丟人現眼後辭職下台。但道瓊指數照樣從66點漲至11,497點。
你可能以為，20世紀漲幅這麼大，幾乎不可能賠錢，但就是有些人虧錢。這些倒楣人只在覺得放心時買股票，一瞥見令人不安的新聞就賣出。今天，手中持有現金及約當現金的人覺得心安，其實不該如此。他們選擇了可怕的長期資產，幾乎不生財且注定會貶值。沒錯，政府為緩解危機而採行的政策勢必引發通膨，進而加速現金帳戶的實際價值下滑。
股票未來十年的表現勢必勝過現金。現在緊抱現金的投資人，是賭他們稍後可算準時機再進場買進。在等待好消息時，他們忽視冰上曲棍球巨星葛瑞斯基（Wayne Gretzky）的建言：「溜冰時要滑向曲棍球餅預料會到的地方，而不是現在的位置。」
我不喜歡對股市發表意見，容我再次強調，我不知市場短期走向。然而，我會仿效一家餐廳的作法，這家餐廳在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓開業，廣告標語說：「錢放哪裡，就在哪裡吃。」今天，我的錢和我的嘴都嚷著要「股票」。
I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This
description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed top hilanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire networth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
筆者註: 巴菲特個人財富之中, 大部分是持有Berkshire Hathaway. 其次就是持有美國政府的債券. 可以睇到 巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)一樣, 不喜歡持有現金. 而當股價吸引時, 甚至會100%持股.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
筆者註: 巴菲特的名句: "在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼" 的確是投資至勝之道.問題是, 幾多人可以實行到? 然而, 並非所有公司都可以逆市買入. 當中, 要避開的, 包括高負債高槓桿操作的公司, 以及沒有競爭優勢的公司.對於那些體質健壯的公司, 雖然短期盈利會受損, 但是, 5年後, 10年後, 盈利回復活力以及再創盈利新記錄是可以預期的.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely,however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so,well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
筆者註: 短期股市的走勢難以預測. 然而, 如果投資者等待經濟出現明顯復甦的跡象時, 那時股市極可能已經上升不少了, 因為股市的上升將發生在經濟復甦之前.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
筆者註: 巴菲特再次強調, 壞消息是投資者的好朋友, 因為不利消息可以為投資者提供較低的進場價格.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century,the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
筆者註: 有些倒楣的投資者發覺自己通常是高買低賣. 巴菲特提醒你, 問問自己, 是否見到好消息才有信心去高追, 而見到壞消息就不安地沽出.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless,I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.”Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
筆者註:不要持有現金然後期望(觀望)政府推出利好政策救市, 因為政府的救市方案將導致通貨膨脹. 長遠來看, 持有現金是非常低回報的資產,因為會被通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力. 相反, 持有股票長遠的回報將大大勝過持有現金.巴菲特認為現時堅持持有現金的投資者是在賭緊自己能夠掌握股市的走勢, 和升跌的韻律, 是在等待令自己心安的好消息.但是巴菲特認為現時就是買股票的時候.
中文版
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉成美股。 為什麼？有個簡單的買進規則：別人貪婪時應恐懼，別人恐懼時應貪婪。現在瀰漫的是恐懼感，即使投資老手也逃不過。投資人提防借貸比率過高或競爭力弱的企業是對的，但對許多體質健全公司的長期展望憂心忡忡卻沒道理。這些企業的獲利偶爾會打嗝，但多數大公司會在五年、十年或二十年後締造新的獲利紀錄。
有一點要說清楚：我無法預測股市的短期走勢，不知一個月或一年後股價會漲或跌。然而，行情可能在市場信心轉強或經濟改觀前就走高，也許漲幅可觀。你若要等知更鳥啼鳴，春天可能已結束。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。
長期來說，股市新聞會變好。在20世紀，美國歷經過兩次世界大戰和其他代價慘重的軍事衝突，以及大蕭條、十幾次衰退和金融恐慌，還有幾次石油危機、一波大流感，及總統丟人現眼後辭職下台。但道瓊指數照樣從66點漲至11,497點。
你可能以為，20世紀漲幅這麼大，幾乎不可能賠錢，但就是有些人虧錢。這些倒楣人只在覺得放心時買股票，一瞥見令人不安的新聞就賣出。今天，手中持有現金及約當現金的人覺得心安，其實不該如此。他們選擇了可怕的長期資產，幾乎不生財且注定會貶值。沒錯，政府為緩解危機而採行的政策勢必引發通膨，進而加速現金帳戶的實際價值下滑。
股票未來十年的表現勢必勝過現金。現在緊抱現金的投資人，是賭他們稍後可算準時機再進場買進。在等待好消息時，他們忽視冰上曲棍球巨星葛瑞斯基（Wayne Gretzky）的建言：「溜冰時要滑向曲棍球餅預料會到的地方，而不是現在的位置。」
我不喜歡對股市發表意見，容我再次強調，我不知市場短期走向。然而，我會仿效一家餐廳的作法，這家餐廳在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓開業，廣告標語說：「錢放哪裡，就在哪裡吃。」今天，我的錢和我的嘴都嚷著要「股票」。
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