全球目前正面临通货膨胀的问题，以新加坡来说，通货膨胀率去年11月达3.8％，柴米油盐等食品价格纷纷上扬。许多克勤克俭的上班族，平时努力工作、赚钱，每个月将省下的薪水存进银行，多年之后开始有了积蓄，正准备多积一些钱，为自己买下人生中第一间房子，或是换一间大一点的房子让日益长大的孩子住得较为舒服，突然物价、屋价、生活必需品样样价格大幅上涨，手上的储蓄原本还可以付房子首期，但随着房价上涨，早已编好的“房梦”濒临破灭。
理财始于控制消费
的确，在通货膨胀冲击下，许多上班族每年的薪资增长不但会被通膨吃掉，连储蓄也变少了。
MasterYourFinance.com创办人吴加万说，通货膨胀相等于钱财“缩水”。物价高涨了，意味同样的东西需要花更多钱购买，日常衣食住行的费用提高，这时上班族更需要有理财的观念。
要看紧自己的荷包，吴加万首先建议说，上班族目前若还有房屋贷款，可了解一下房贷利息。如发觉利息过高，应该积极寻求重新融资（re-finance）。
他提醒说：“一般房屋贷款动不动就是几十万元，利息只要低了0.5%就很可观，每年可省上几千元，甚至1万元。”
很多人也许没有想到的是，理财始于如何消费，控制消费是理财的第一步。
吴加万说，理财之道不外乎开源节流。说到节流，尤其是通货膨胀时更应控制开销，每个人必须心里清楚，哪些钱是必须花的，哪一些是无需花费的。
吴加万举例说：“每星期到超级市场买日常用品时，最好去之前先列下家里真正需要的东西，先买必需品，有了余钱才买其他的东西，很多人没有这样的购物习惯，见到什么买什么，结果买了一些原本不那么需要的东西，例如明明是想要买三合一咖啡，结果在超市逛着逛着，因为先看到白咖啡就买了下来，到了后来还是觉得，必须买三合一咖啡，结果不自觉的多花了钱。”
吴加万也劝请一些上班族，别太追赶时髦，尤其是奢侈品与科技产品，有些求新爱时髦的上班族，一发现市场上有新产品，立刻就动了念头，想要买到手，结果越买越成习惯。
吴加万说：“看到叫自己心动的商品时，不如先忍一忍，告诉自己，隔几天再来买。隔几天之后，也许就不那么冲动了，那股原先的购买欲望也没有了。”
他说，许多科技产品例如手机、电脑等，最新产品刚推出时往往也是价钱最贵的时候，不应该立刻买下来，不如忍着一段时日，等到新商品的热潮淡退了之后，价格也会较为合理，这时候购买会节省不少钱。
谨慎选择投资产品
吴加万说，通货膨胀的时候，银行存款利息，包括定期存款都较通货膨胀率来得低，若只是把钱存进银行，钱会贬值，这时除了控制消费，少让钱财流出去之外，也应该在有了剩余的钱后考虑投资，学习钱生钱。
说到开源生钱之道，吴加万建议，可投资一些贵金属，投资品种例如黄金和白银，这两种金属一般在通货膨胀的时候价值都会上升。而相较于投资房产，投资黄金和白银需要的金钱不那么多，一般略有储蓄的上班族，基本上投资得起。
吴加万说，投资黄金和白银不一定要买实物黄金或白银，除了买实物黄金外，还可选择“纸黄金”或“纸白银”。纸黄金指黄金的纸上交易，投资者的买卖交易记录是在个人开立的“黄金存折账户”上，并不涉及实物金的提取。盈利模式即通过低买高卖，获取差价利润；“纸白银”亦是同样的交易模式。
至于投资股票，吴加万说，要熟悉及懂得股票投资才能较少风险的将钱投进股市，反之如果对股票投资一窍不通，不懂得分析企业公司的基本面，也看不懂技术图表分析，那么就不要冒着风险盲目买股票，不如投资“指数基金”较简单妥当，例如可以在股票市场投资STI基金、中国上海股票指数基金，这些都较为方便上班族投资者。
此外，吴加万说，对于上班族来说，最不可放松的一点，是持续不断在职场中提升自己的专业水平或是职业技能，这是更为实在的方法。
他说；“上班族一旦步入职场就要经常提醒自己不要原地踏步，要不断求取进步，若是十年如一日，工作能力一直没进步，这其实就是退步了，渐渐的就会落在别人后头。竞争能力不如人，升职加薪的机会自然就少了，相反的，如果能力不断提升，专业表现优秀，就算现在的老板不识宝，没有获得该有的升职加薪，总有识宝的公司或猎人头公司会找上门，一旦有另谋高就的机会，薪水自然会大幅度增加，也就有能力应付通货膨胀了。”
Saturday, January 29, 2011
市场人士：房地产降温措施料 “只降买气略降价格”
最近的房地产降温措施预计会减少房地产成交量，但价格不会出现显著下滑，今年本地房价下跌预计不会超过5％。
戴德梁行（DTZ）东南亚研究部主管蔡楚芬指出，本地经济增长良好，利率持低，发展商拥有较强的持有力，新元保持强劲，加上中国大陆和香港调控房地产使得外国买家涌入，2011年本地的价格预计会保持稳定，下跌幅度不会超过5％。
戴德梁行的报告指出，卖方印花税（Sellers’ Stamp Duties，简称SSD）提高至4％到16％不等，预计会让短期投机者退出市场，导致成交量下滑。
不过并不是所有的投资者会退出市场，一些可能认为在第四年出售房地产缴纳4％的印花税是可以接受的，转而购买三四年后竣工的单位。
戴德梁行执行董事（住宅）邓淑玮说：“有地住宅、小型公寓和高档公寓估计所受影响较小。价格较低的小型公寓会继续吸引拥有闲钱的投资者或买房的单身人士。”
大量未来供应将是一大挑战
“征收印花税的期限为四年，对有地住宅基本没有影响，因为多数买家是买来长期自住。高档公寓则会继续吸引海外买家。”
如果在一段时期后需求依然持高不下，戴德梁行不排除政府会推出更多降温措施的可能性。
此外，大量的未来供应将是一大挑战。
去年下半年和今年上半年政府售地计划推出了创纪录的正选地段，新组屋的供应将让人担忧，这会使得竣工单位的数目在两三年内激增，导致价格和租金面临压力。
包括去年8月政策中承诺的组屋供应和政府售地计划的正选名单，2011年至2014年平均每年竣工的单位，将高达3万2700个，而过去十年的平均数，仅为1万6700个，这十年间平均每年新增家庭近2万3000户。
虽然公司扩张业务和外来劳工的涌入可能推高租房需求，永久居民和公民批准条件的收紧意味着来自这个组群的需求会放缓。
欣乐（SLP）国际执行董事麦俊荣也表示，过去十年本地房地产市场平均每年消化6500个单位，到了2013年和2014年，供应将是这个数字的三倍，到时可能会出现供应过剩的情况，租金会于明年下半年开始面临压力。
戴德梁行指出，由于本地住宅市场面临种种挑战，投资者可能会寻求其他房地产领域的机会，或是其他投资产品。
戴德梁行（DTZ）东南亚研究部主管蔡楚芬指出，本地经济增长良好，利率持低，发展商拥有较强的持有力，新元保持强劲，加上中国大陆和香港调控房地产使得外国买家涌入，2011年本地的价格预计会保持稳定，下跌幅度不会超过5％。
戴德梁行的报告指出，卖方印花税（Sellers’ Stamp Duties，简称SSD）提高至4％到16％不等，预计会让短期投机者退出市场，导致成交量下滑。
不过并不是所有的投资者会退出市场，一些可能认为在第四年出售房地产缴纳4％的印花税是可以接受的，转而购买三四年后竣工的单位。
戴德梁行执行董事（住宅）邓淑玮说：“有地住宅、小型公寓和高档公寓估计所受影响较小。价格较低的小型公寓会继续吸引拥有闲钱的投资者或买房的单身人士。”
大量未来供应将是一大挑战
“征收印花税的期限为四年，对有地住宅基本没有影响，因为多数买家是买来长期自住。高档公寓则会继续吸引海外买家。”
如果在一段时期后需求依然持高不下，戴德梁行不排除政府会推出更多降温措施的可能性。
此外，大量的未来供应将是一大挑战。
去年下半年和今年上半年政府售地计划推出了创纪录的正选地段，新组屋的供应将让人担忧，这会使得竣工单位的数目在两三年内激增，导致价格和租金面临压力。
包括去年8月政策中承诺的组屋供应和政府售地计划的正选名单，2011年至2014年平均每年竣工的单位，将高达3万2700个，而过去十年的平均数，仅为1万6700个，这十年间平均每年新增家庭近2万3000户。
虽然公司扩张业务和外来劳工的涌入可能推高租房需求，永久居民和公民批准条件的收紧意味着来自这个组群的需求会放缓。
欣乐（SLP）国际执行董事麦俊荣也表示，过去十年本地房地产市场平均每年消化6500个单位，到了2013年和2014年，供应将是这个数字的三倍，到时可能会出现供应过剩的情况，租金会于明年下半年开始面临压力。
戴德梁行指出，由于本地住宅市场面临种种挑战，投资者可能会寻求其他房地产领域的机会，或是其他投资产品。
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
分享锦集:写给职场新鲜人
在大学里拼了3、4年，你终于戴上方帽子，走进社会，成为职场中又一个新鲜人。
学校生涯的结束，就业生涯的开始，是人生一个重要的转折点。
你今后所走的道路，将从这个转折点折射而出，你所选择的方向，将决定你一生的荣辱。
没钱万万不能
由一个受父母庇护的青少年，脱颖而出，成为一个独立的社会人，你将面对人生许多挑战，其中之一就是如何解决财务问题。
钱不是万能，但没有钱万万不能。在你的人生旅途中，你往往会受到钱不够用的困扰。
要生活得自在，必须克服钱不够用的烦恼。
你必须知道，你不是单单属于你自己，你同时也是属于你的父母、妻子、儿女，如果你钱不够用，他们将受苦，而你没有使他们受苦的权利。
不努力，就是不负责任。
所以，你不得不努力解决钱这个最现实的难题。
在学校里，你的老师勉励你节俭和储蓄，这是好的。
但是，假如你停留在节俭和储蓄的阶段，你很难改善你的财政情况。
要改善你的财政情况，你必须学习投资，让职业与投资并驾齐驱。
学习投资就是学习让别人替你赚钱，学习“不劳而获”赚钱法，学习如何让通货膨胀为你制造财富。
学习投资就是学习如何以钱赚钱，学习如何以智力赚钱而不是以劳力赚钱。劳力赚钱，疲于奔命。
时间就是金钱，任何投资，都要经过一段时间，才有可能增值。你必须给你的投资有时间去成长，所以，投资越早开始越好。
职场新鲜人正是开始投资的最适当时机。早开始，可以从容。
不要拖延，更不要犹豫。
投资最忌迟疑不决。
资金永远不够
现在就开始行动，有多少钱就投资多少，不要等到你认为资金充足时才开始，因为资金是永远不够的。
投资需要经验，经验只能来自实践。
经验有助于你减少失误，减少失误等于提高成功机会。
原地踏步的人当然不会遭受跌倒的痛苦，但也永远享受不到奔达目的地的快乐。
不要只做个旁观者，做一个参与者。
旁观者清，参与者富。
投资的范围很广，你可以选择适合你的项目。
但有一个原则，你所选的项目必须是有增值及成长潜能的，否则就是浪费时间，浪费时间就是浪费生命，生命浪费不得。
忌会贬值项目
其次，要选择成长潜能巨大的项目，不要选择成长受到局限的投资项目，更不可选会贬值的项目，如买汽车。
举个例子，产业和股票投资，发展空间巨大无比，拥有数以亿令吉的产业和股票者，比比皆是，值得你全力以赴参与投资。
股票是众多的投资项目中较为适合工薪阶级参与的管道之一。
只要培养正确的投资理念，坚毅不拔，勤做功课，股票投资可以致富。
作为一名股票研究人及投资者，我乐意跟你分享股票投资的心得。
我一向认为，投资心得有如井水，井水不会因为汲取得多了而枯竭。
心得不会因为与别人分享而减少。
作为职场新鲜人，请听我从头说起。
股市老兵不需续看下文，因为没有这个必要，这些都是老生常谈而已。
但我希望职场新鲜人看下去，因为对你有益。
买股票=参股做生意
买股票是怎么一回事？
买股票，就是买公司的股份，买公司的股份就是参股做生意。
参股做生意能不能够赚钱，取决于你所参与的生意的成败。
所以，在参股之前，你一定要了解你的公司，了解你的公司所做的生意能否赚钱，了解越深越好。
要了解所做的生意能不能赚钱，首先要知道的是这家公司所做的是什么生意，而这种生意在目前和可以预见的将来，有无可能赚钱。
惟有在详细研究了所有可以获得的资料，以及考虑了所有影响这盘生意的因素之后，你觉得这盘生意是可以赚钱的，公司的前景是亮丽的，你才应该作出投资于这家公司的决定——从股市买进这家公司的股票，就成为该公司的股东了。
拥有公司资产
你所购买的股票，是这家公司原有的股东转让给你的。
作为公司的股东，你其实拥有这家公司的一部分资产，你所拥有的巴仙率，跟你的投资额成正比，作为股东，你有分享公司盈利的权利，这个权利的大小，也是跟你的股权大小成正比。
作为公司的股东，你其实就是该公司的老板之一。
尽管所持股份微不足道，但你还是该公司数以千计老板之一，这个身分是受到法律保护的。
股票投资就是这么一回事。
但是，很不幸的，现在的股市中人，很少人作如是想。
忘了原始道理
99%股市中人视股票为一张买来卖去的文件，这份文件的价格天天在变动，低买高卖，被认为是股市赚钱的最好方法。至于股票（份）的价值，根本无人问津。
读到这里，也许你会对这些浅显的道理，嗤之以鼻。
也许你对于这些幼稚园般的道理，早已了然于心，却不屑一顾。
实际上，正因为几乎所有的人，就因为忘记了这个最原始的道理，才会在股市搞到焦头烂额。
态度决定成败
如果每个人都养成一种习惯，在买进股票之前，提醒自己，他所买的是公司的股份，他是在参股做生意，他对股票就马上有不同的看法。
他会马上想到，参股做生意应有所认识，有了认识，就可以减少失误。
减少失误，等于提高参股做生意的成功机会。
是的，股票投资成败，与他所持的态度息息相关。
态度正确，投资之路才会越走越平坦。不正确，举步维艰。
职场新鲜人如果一开始就抱着快速致富的念头进入股市，最终必粉身碎骨。
投机取巧，下场悲惨。
2011年新春伊始，作为职场新鲜人，正是你作出明智抉择的最适当时光。
好的开始，是成功了一半。跨出正确的第一步吧！
牛市正是学习股票投资的好时机，你应该坐言起行！
学校生涯的结束，就业生涯的开始，是人生一个重要的转折点。
你今后所走的道路，将从这个转折点折射而出，你所选择的方向，将决定你一生的荣辱。
没钱万万不能
由一个受父母庇护的青少年，脱颖而出，成为一个独立的社会人，你将面对人生许多挑战，其中之一就是如何解决财务问题。
钱不是万能，但没有钱万万不能。在你的人生旅途中，你往往会受到钱不够用的困扰。
要生活得自在，必须克服钱不够用的烦恼。
你必须知道，你不是单单属于你自己，你同时也是属于你的父母、妻子、儿女，如果你钱不够用，他们将受苦，而你没有使他们受苦的权利。
不努力，就是不负责任。
所以，你不得不努力解决钱这个最现实的难题。
在学校里，你的老师勉励你节俭和储蓄，这是好的。
但是，假如你停留在节俭和储蓄的阶段，你很难改善你的财政情况。
要改善你的财政情况，你必须学习投资，让职业与投资并驾齐驱。
学习投资就是学习让别人替你赚钱，学习“不劳而获”赚钱法，学习如何让通货膨胀为你制造财富。
学习投资就是学习如何以钱赚钱，学习如何以智力赚钱而不是以劳力赚钱。劳力赚钱，疲于奔命。
时间就是金钱，任何投资，都要经过一段时间，才有可能增值。你必须给你的投资有时间去成长，所以，投资越早开始越好。
职场新鲜人正是开始投资的最适当时机。早开始，可以从容。
不要拖延，更不要犹豫。
投资最忌迟疑不决。
资金永远不够
现在就开始行动，有多少钱就投资多少，不要等到你认为资金充足时才开始，因为资金是永远不够的。
投资需要经验，经验只能来自实践。
经验有助于你减少失误，减少失误等于提高成功机会。
原地踏步的人当然不会遭受跌倒的痛苦，但也永远享受不到奔达目的地的快乐。
不要只做个旁观者，做一个参与者。
旁观者清，参与者富。
投资的范围很广，你可以选择适合你的项目。
但有一个原则，你所选的项目必须是有增值及成长潜能的，否则就是浪费时间，浪费时间就是浪费生命，生命浪费不得。
忌会贬值项目
其次，要选择成长潜能巨大的项目，不要选择成长受到局限的投资项目，更不可选会贬值的项目，如买汽车。
举个例子，产业和股票投资，发展空间巨大无比，拥有数以亿令吉的产业和股票者，比比皆是，值得你全力以赴参与投资。
股票是众多的投资项目中较为适合工薪阶级参与的管道之一。
只要培养正确的投资理念，坚毅不拔，勤做功课，股票投资可以致富。
作为一名股票研究人及投资者，我乐意跟你分享股票投资的心得。
我一向认为，投资心得有如井水，井水不会因为汲取得多了而枯竭。
心得不会因为与别人分享而减少。
作为职场新鲜人，请听我从头说起。
股市老兵不需续看下文，因为没有这个必要，这些都是老生常谈而已。
但我希望职场新鲜人看下去，因为对你有益。
买股票=参股做生意
买股票是怎么一回事？
买股票，就是买公司的股份，买公司的股份就是参股做生意。
参股做生意能不能够赚钱，取决于你所参与的生意的成败。
所以，在参股之前，你一定要了解你的公司，了解你的公司所做的生意能否赚钱，了解越深越好。
要了解所做的生意能不能赚钱，首先要知道的是这家公司所做的是什么生意，而这种生意在目前和可以预见的将来，有无可能赚钱。
惟有在详细研究了所有可以获得的资料，以及考虑了所有影响这盘生意的因素之后，你觉得这盘生意是可以赚钱的，公司的前景是亮丽的，你才应该作出投资于这家公司的决定——从股市买进这家公司的股票，就成为该公司的股东了。
拥有公司资产
你所购买的股票，是这家公司原有的股东转让给你的。
作为公司的股东，你其实拥有这家公司的一部分资产，你所拥有的巴仙率，跟你的投资额成正比，作为股东，你有分享公司盈利的权利，这个权利的大小，也是跟你的股权大小成正比。
作为公司的股东，你其实就是该公司的老板之一。
尽管所持股份微不足道，但你还是该公司数以千计老板之一，这个身分是受到法律保护的。
股票投资就是这么一回事。
但是，很不幸的，现在的股市中人，很少人作如是想。
忘了原始道理
99%股市中人视股票为一张买来卖去的文件，这份文件的价格天天在变动，低买高卖，被认为是股市赚钱的最好方法。至于股票（份）的价值，根本无人问津。
读到这里，也许你会对这些浅显的道理，嗤之以鼻。
也许你对于这些幼稚园般的道理，早已了然于心，却不屑一顾。
实际上，正因为几乎所有的人，就因为忘记了这个最原始的道理，才会在股市搞到焦头烂额。
态度决定成败
如果每个人都养成一种习惯，在买进股票之前，提醒自己，他所买的是公司的股份，他是在参股做生意，他对股票就马上有不同的看法。
他会马上想到，参股做生意应有所认识，有了认识，就可以减少失误。
减少失误，等于提高参股做生意的成功机会。
是的，股票投资成败，与他所持的态度息息相关。
态度正确，投资之路才会越走越平坦。不正确，举步维艰。
职场新鲜人如果一开始就抱着快速致富的念头进入股市，最终必粉身碎骨。
投机取巧，下场悲惨。
2011年新春伊始，作为职场新鲜人，正是你作出明智抉择的最适当时光。
好的开始，是成功了一半。跨出正确的第一步吧！
牛市正是学习股票投资的好时机，你应该坐言起行！
分享锦集：了解你的公司
对于股票投资，我一向坚持，不了解，就不买。
但是，很遗憾的，大部分人无法做到。
首先是因为绝大多数投资者，都是受薪人士，没有做生意的头脑和认识，作为生意的门外汉，要他们判断这种生意能不能赚钱有一定的难度。
内行人内行事
所以，让打工仔去投资做生意，等于叫门外汉去做内行人的事。
这种情形，其实不局限于受教育不多的普通职员，即使是受过高等教育的专业人士亦如此。
例如做医生的，对医药，他是专家，但对建筑业，他可是个门外汉，一窍不通，认识水平可能还比不上一名建筑公司职员。
所以，在投资建筑股时他不会比建筑公司职员高明。
其次，是小股东没有了解公司的能力，上市公司其实是相当透明化的。
股市千变万化
投资者可以从www.bursamalaysia.com下载所有有关公司的资料，只要细读这些资料，再以常识判断，就有可能对有关上市公司有较为深入的了解，作出较为合理的判断，避过股票投资的一些陷阱，提高胜算，但多数没有解读资料的能力。
许多人视读上市公司资料为畏途，认为枯燥无味。
以我浸淫股市四十年的经验，刚好相反，股票和股市，千变万化，时时刻刻都有惊奇显现，所谓套套新鲜，怎么会枯燥无味呢？
股票资料趣味无穷
只要你留意，实际上，股票的资料，不但俯拾即是，而且趣味无穷。
随手举一个例子：1月4日《南洋商报》<雪隆版>C9页有一则报道“第二加影城镇置业佳地”，对Kajang 2这个新镇有颇为详尽的报道。
年年赚钱
对于普通读者来说，这不过是一则有关加影产业的报道，但是，对我这名股票研究人来说，这可是一份有用的资料，增加了我对上市公司美景集团（Metro Kajang）的认识。
犹记一年多前，我到加影参加一位朋友的洋楼新居入伙礼，在座嘉宾中不少是屋主来自外地的老同学。
屋主把他们介绍给我认识，当他们知道我是冷眼时，就问我：“有什么股可以买啊？”我马上说：“现在你在加影，就买Metro Kajang吧！买了就不要卖！”那时美景的股价在1令吉上下浮沉。
我当时这么说的道理很简单，以每股1令吉参股净资产的价值2令吉80仙，20多年来年年赚钱的公司，实在太值得了。
低价购地
那时美景集团刚以8000万令吉买进第二加影城镇的273英亩土地，每亩买价还不到30万令吉。
这段宝地就在加影市区边缘，地点太好了，我很惊讶该公司有办法以如此低廉的价格买到该段地。
每年回酬20%
该公司在2008年5月5日向股票交易所宣布此项收购时清楚地说：该公司将以8年时间发展这段地为新镇，销售总值将达15亿令吉。
我估计，这项计划可以取得30%的利润，等于在8年中可赚进4亿5000万令吉，平均每年可赚超过5000万令吉，以美景当时的资本计算，每年每股就可以赚20仙以上，而其他的业务还不包括在内。
以每股1令吉买进该公司的股票，等于每年有20%的回酬，这不是很值得投资吗？
我当时随口建议买美景，理由在此。
《南洋商报》1月4日关于第二加影城的报道说，这段土地将建1300个单位住宅，首期139间双层排屋和104间半独立洋楼已于去年12月推介，说明了此计划已正式启动，将为公司带来盈利。
我举这个例子，说明了投资者只要勤于做功课，时刻留意所投资公司的业务讯息，要对公司有一定程度的了解，并不是那么困难。
犹豫不决错失良机
了解公司的潜能之后，就有胆识在公司股价低沉时，买进其股份，长期持有，以分享公司的盈利。
油棕贡献盈利
若能贴身跟进上市公司的发展，你就有能力比较公司的价值。
例如，另一家上市公司英芝肯尼（INCH Kenneth Kajang）在去年12月6日宣布以2亿6850万令吉，脱售加影的463.51英亩油棕园给友乃德置地（UEM Land），平均每亩售价约60万令吉，比第二加影城土地的买价30万令吉高出一倍，而地点远不如第二加影城，可见美景买到便宜地。
美景在印尼加里曼丹的4万英亩油棕园，已于去年杪完成种植，三年前种下的第一批油棕已开始结果，预料油棕园将来将成为公司的新成长区。
2011年新年伊始，股市牛气冲天，今年将是个牛年，股友不可犹豫不决，错过赚钱机会。
要赚钱，首先要做的，就是做功课——尽量了解你的公司，做个明智的小股东。
但是，很遗憾的，大部分人无法做到。
首先是因为绝大多数投资者，都是受薪人士，没有做生意的头脑和认识，作为生意的门外汉，要他们判断这种生意能不能赚钱有一定的难度。
内行人内行事
所以，让打工仔去投资做生意，等于叫门外汉去做内行人的事。
这种情形，其实不局限于受教育不多的普通职员，即使是受过高等教育的专业人士亦如此。
例如做医生的，对医药，他是专家，但对建筑业，他可是个门外汉，一窍不通，认识水平可能还比不上一名建筑公司职员。
所以，在投资建筑股时他不会比建筑公司职员高明。
其次，是小股东没有了解公司的能力，上市公司其实是相当透明化的。
股市千变万化
投资者可以从www.bursamalaysia.com下载所有有关公司的资料，只要细读这些资料，再以常识判断，就有可能对有关上市公司有较为深入的了解，作出较为合理的判断，避过股票投资的一些陷阱，提高胜算，但多数没有解读资料的能力。
许多人视读上市公司资料为畏途，认为枯燥无味。
以我浸淫股市四十年的经验，刚好相反，股票和股市，千变万化，时时刻刻都有惊奇显现，所谓套套新鲜，怎么会枯燥无味呢？
股票资料趣味无穷
只要你留意，实际上，股票的资料，不但俯拾即是，而且趣味无穷。
随手举一个例子：1月4日《南洋商报》<雪隆版>C9页有一则报道“第二加影城镇置业佳地”，对Kajang 2这个新镇有颇为详尽的报道。
年年赚钱
对于普通读者来说，这不过是一则有关加影产业的报道，但是，对我这名股票研究人来说，这可是一份有用的资料，增加了我对上市公司美景集团（Metro Kajang）的认识。
犹记一年多前，我到加影参加一位朋友的洋楼新居入伙礼，在座嘉宾中不少是屋主来自外地的老同学。
屋主把他们介绍给我认识，当他们知道我是冷眼时，就问我：“有什么股可以买啊？”我马上说：“现在你在加影，就买Metro Kajang吧！买了就不要卖！”那时美景的股价在1令吉上下浮沉。
我当时这么说的道理很简单，以每股1令吉参股净资产的价值2令吉80仙，20多年来年年赚钱的公司，实在太值得了。
低价购地
那时美景集团刚以8000万令吉买进第二加影城镇的273英亩土地，每亩买价还不到30万令吉。
这段宝地就在加影市区边缘，地点太好了，我很惊讶该公司有办法以如此低廉的价格买到该段地。
每年回酬20%
该公司在2008年5月5日向股票交易所宣布此项收购时清楚地说：该公司将以8年时间发展这段地为新镇，销售总值将达15亿令吉。
我估计，这项计划可以取得30%的利润，等于在8年中可赚进4亿5000万令吉，平均每年可赚超过5000万令吉，以美景当时的资本计算，每年每股就可以赚20仙以上，而其他的业务还不包括在内。
以每股1令吉买进该公司的股票，等于每年有20%的回酬，这不是很值得投资吗？
我当时随口建议买美景，理由在此。
《南洋商报》1月4日关于第二加影城的报道说，这段土地将建1300个单位住宅，首期139间双层排屋和104间半独立洋楼已于去年12月推介，说明了此计划已正式启动，将为公司带来盈利。
我举这个例子，说明了投资者只要勤于做功课，时刻留意所投资公司的业务讯息，要对公司有一定程度的了解，并不是那么困难。
犹豫不决错失良机
了解公司的潜能之后，就有胆识在公司股价低沉时，买进其股份，长期持有，以分享公司的盈利。
油棕贡献盈利
若能贴身跟进上市公司的发展，你就有能力比较公司的价值。
例如，另一家上市公司英芝肯尼（INCH Kenneth Kajang）在去年12月6日宣布以2亿6850万令吉，脱售加影的463.51英亩油棕园给友乃德置地（UEM Land），平均每亩售价约60万令吉，比第二加影城土地的买价30万令吉高出一倍，而地点远不如第二加影城，可见美景买到便宜地。
美景在印尼加里曼丹的4万英亩油棕园，已于去年杪完成种植，三年前种下的第一批油棕已开始结果，预料油棕园将来将成为公司的新成长区。
2011年新年伊始，股市牛气冲天，今年将是个牛年，股友不可犹豫不决，错过赚钱机会。
要赚钱，首先要做的，就是做功课——尽量了解你的公司，做个明智的小股东。
分享锦集：从创业到参股
老陈大学毕业后，进入一家大公司工作，由普通的行政人员做起，经过十多年的拼搏，终於爬上了主管的地位，挤身于高薪职员，手头也有一笔颇为可观的储蓄。
在开始迈入中年，儿女开始进入中学时，老陈计算一下，在5、6年之后，儿女将一个跟着一个进入大学，那笔开支可不小。
他知道，在应付了3个儿女的高等教育费之后，退休后就能靠公积金渡晚年，生活肯定不会宽裕，於是兴起了创业的念头。
有了这种想法之后，老陈跟几个年龄相若的老友提到此事，大家都跃跃欲试。
食品需求永在
但是要从事那个行业呢？
经过了一番讨论之后，他们选择了与“食”有关的行业，他们认为民以食为天，这方面的需求永远存在。
进一步分析，他们发现食品业可分为两大类。
第一类是服务业，就是经营食品贸易和开餐厅。这一类生意竞争异常激烈，可以从餐厅此起彼扑窥见一斑，更何况此行业必须亲力亲为，否则的话，很容易出现纰漏。
第二类是食品制造业，可以分为即食熟食和乾粮，包括快熟面、饼干、糖果和西饼。
经过研究之后，他们圈定了食品制造业中的饼干业，他们认为人们日益富裕，高素质饼干将受欢迎，此行业有作为。
创业说易行难
在深入研究之后，他们发现创业说起来容易，做起来困难重重。
1.资金问题：
小型工厂，机器设备不够先进，品质不如人，更何况规模没有达到一定的水平，每单位生产成本太高，恐怕难以与大厂竞争。
2.技术问题：
饼干要做得好，不但要有技术，而且还要不断研发新产品，以迎合市场要求。他们没有这方面的人才。
3.管理问题：
他们都有稳定的职业，而且需要那份薪水养家，谁都不愿冒险放弃职业去创业，请专业经理管理嘛，始终不放心，何况公司规模不大，出不起高薪以吸引管理专才。
4.市场问题：
饼干作为消费品，需要打响品牌，才能赢得消费人的信心，打响品牌不但需要投入大笔开发资金，而且要有经验的人才去负责，不是一朝一夕可以产生效果的。
要取得一定的市场份额，需要时间，除非有雄厚的财力作后盾，这场仗不易打。
经过了多次的讨论之后，这项做饼干的投资计划，始终无法落实，最后胎死腹中。
但是，这项计划使老陈对制造饼干这个行业，有了深入的认识，他始终认为，这个行业是有潜能的，只要管理得好，品质优良，赢得消费人的信任，这个行业是有利可图的。
他发现，在从事饼干制造业的上市公司中，那些管理得好的公司，如阿波罗食品（Apollo，6432，主板消费产品股）、合成（CIHldg，2828，主板贸服股），都长期取得可观的盈利，派发丰厚的股息。
于是，他念头一转，既然设饼干厂的计划无法落实，他何不参股於上市饼干公司？
他对股票投资有正确观念。他知道，购买上市公司的股份（票），跟投资于新创私人饼干公司，并没有什么分别。
他于是着手研究所有在大马股票交易所上市的饼干公司。
他从http://www.bursamalaysia.com，下载所有饼干公司的招股说明书、历年的年报、季报和公司发表过的文告，详细阅读，深入剖析，寻找他心仪的公司作为投资对象。
他的选择标准为：
1. 历史颇为悠久，基础颇为稳固及业绩表现稳健的公司。
2. 股价合理，作为反向投资者，他选择被投资者忽略，股价长期处在低水平的公司。
根据以上两个标准，他选择了伦敦食品（LONBISC，7126，主板消费产品股）。
他把伦敦食品上市以来9年的营业额、每股净利、股息额及每股净资产，列成一个表，一目了然。（见附表）
他将根据数字和事实，经过谨慎考虑后，理智地作出他的投资决定。
准备长期持有
他对股票投资慎重其事，因为他知道他所买的是公司的股份，买公司的股份，就是买事业，做事业是长期的事，所以，如果他决定投资於伦敦食品的话，他就准备长期持有，与该公司一齐成长。
老陈的投资模式，其实可以应用在其他行业的上市公司上。
投资者最好是从他从事的行业着手，这样他对有关行业有深入的认识，研究起来，事半功倍。
假如你是在银行工作，那么就研究银行股吧。从上市银行中选出你有信心的银行，趁低价买进，
作为长期投资。
就业投资并行
假如你是在产业界工作，就研究及投资于你信任的上市产业公司吧！
其他行业，如建筑材料（洋灰、钢铁）、食品工作、车业、种植业、手套业……等等，都可如法炮制。
作为受薪职员，你一方面可以保持你的职业，一方面参股于上市公司，以分享他们的利润。
职业与投资，双管齐下，实在是两全其美。
在大马股票交易所上市的公司，超过1000家，包括各主要行业的企业，只要你勤于做功课，一定可以找到几家值得你投资的公司。
机会属于肯下功夫做功课的人。
在开始迈入中年，儿女开始进入中学时，老陈计算一下，在5、6年之后，儿女将一个跟着一个进入大学，那笔开支可不小。
他知道，在应付了3个儿女的高等教育费之后，退休后就能靠公积金渡晚年，生活肯定不会宽裕，於是兴起了创业的念头。
有了这种想法之后，老陈跟几个年龄相若的老友提到此事，大家都跃跃欲试。
食品需求永在
但是要从事那个行业呢？
经过了一番讨论之后，他们选择了与“食”有关的行业，他们认为民以食为天，这方面的需求永远存在。
进一步分析，他们发现食品业可分为两大类。
第一类是服务业，就是经营食品贸易和开餐厅。这一类生意竞争异常激烈，可以从餐厅此起彼扑窥见一斑，更何况此行业必须亲力亲为，否则的话，很容易出现纰漏。
第二类是食品制造业，可以分为即食熟食和乾粮，包括快熟面、饼干、糖果和西饼。
经过研究之后，他们圈定了食品制造业中的饼干业，他们认为人们日益富裕，高素质饼干将受欢迎，此行业有作为。
创业说易行难
在深入研究之后，他们发现创业说起来容易，做起来困难重重。
1.资金问题：
小型工厂，机器设备不够先进，品质不如人，更何况规模没有达到一定的水平，每单位生产成本太高，恐怕难以与大厂竞争。
2.技术问题：
饼干要做得好，不但要有技术，而且还要不断研发新产品，以迎合市场要求。他们没有这方面的人才。
3.管理问题：
他们都有稳定的职业，而且需要那份薪水养家，谁都不愿冒险放弃职业去创业，请专业经理管理嘛，始终不放心，何况公司规模不大，出不起高薪以吸引管理专才。
4.市场问题：
饼干作为消费品，需要打响品牌，才能赢得消费人的信心，打响品牌不但需要投入大笔开发资金，而且要有经验的人才去负责，不是一朝一夕可以产生效果的。
要取得一定的市场份额，需要时间，除非有雄厚的财力作后盾，这场仗不易打。
经过了多次的讨论之后，这项做饼干的投资计划，始终无法落实，最后胎死腹中。
但是，这项计划使老陈对制造饼干这个行业，有了深入的认识，他始终认为，这个行业是有潜能的，只要管理得好，品质优良，赢得消费人的信任，这个行业是有利可图的。
他发现，在从事饼干制造业的上市公司中，那些管理得好的公司，如阿波罗食品（Apollo，6432，主板消费产品股）、合成（CIHldg，2828，主板贸服股），都长期取得可观的盈利，派发丰厚的股息。
于是，他念头一转，既然设饼干厂的计划无法落实，他何不参股於上市饼干公司？
他对股票投资有正确观念。他知道，购买上市公司的股份（票），跟投资于新创私人饼干公司，并没有什么分别。
他于是着手研究所有在大马股票交易所上市的饼干公司。
他从http://www.bursamalaysia.com，下载所有饼干公司的招股说明书、历年的年报、季报和公司发表过的文告，详细阅读，深入剖析，寻找他心仪的公司作为投资对象。
他的选择标准为：
1. 历史颇为悠久，基础颇为稳固及业绩表现稳健的公司。
2. 股价合理，作为反向投资者，他选择被投资者忽略，股价长期处在低水平的公司。
根据以上两个标准，他选择了伦敦食品（LONBISC，7126，主板消费产品股）。
他把伦敦食品上市以来9年的营业额、每股净利、股息额及每股净资产，列成一个表，一目了然。（见附表）
他将根据数字和事实，经过谨慎考虑后，理智地作出他的投资决定。
准备长期持有
他对股票投资慎重其事，因为他知道他所买的是公司的股份，买公司的股份，就是买事业，做事业是长期的事，所以，如果他决定投资於伦敦食品的话，他就准备长期持有，与该公司一齐成长。
老陈的投资模式，其实可以应用在其他行业的上市公司上。
投资者最好是从他从事的行业着手，这样他对有关行业有深入的认识，研究起来，事半功倍。
假如你是在银行工作，那么就研究银行股吧。从上市银行中选出你有信心的银行，趁低价买进，
作为长期投资。
就业投资并行
假如你是在产业界工作，就研究及投资于你信任的上市产业公司吧！
其他行业，如建筑材料（洋灰、钢铁）、食品工作、车业、种植业、手套业……等等，都可如法炮制。
作为受薪职员，你一方面可以保持你的职业，一方面参股于上市公司，以分享他们的利润。
职业与投资，双管齐下，实在是两全其美。
在大马股票交易所上市的公司，超过1000家，包括各主要行业的企业，只要你勤于做功课，一定可以找到几家值得你投资的公司。
机会属于肯下功夫做功课的人。
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Singapore Reits - Right ingredients
S-Reits is in a sweet spot.
While healthy underlying fundamentals should translate into quality 4Q10 earnings, the depressed interest rate environment will benefit the sector through lower refinancing costs and provide cheap funding for yield accretive acquisitions. Furthermore, CLSA’s expectation of a strengthening SGD (S$1.15/USD by end of 2011) will garner higher interest among foreign institutional investors which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax. Maintain Overweight.
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be in line with our expectations.
3Q10 revenue growth of 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY were driven by both organic and inorganic growth, we expect the trend to sustain going into 4Q10.
Rising occupancies, positive rental reversions and contribution from acquisitions were key trends over the past few quarters.
Sector Ebitda margins improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates from by the government.
Interest rates to remain depressed
CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with SIBOR at 0.20% over this period.
Depressed interest rates will continue to benefit the S-Reits through lower cost of debt and provide cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
SGD1.3016/USD is currently near a 10year low.
Expect MAS to combat rising inflation (6.7% CLSA 2011 forecast) by further appreciating the currency in 2011. CLSA forecast this to hit SGD1.15/USD by 2011.
This suggests an 11.6% currency appreciation, fuelling interest among US and foreign based funds which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax.
Local Reits are beneficiaries – CMT, AREIT, CREIT, Cache, MIT, Suntec, FCT
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain Overweight on S-Reits.
Further catalysts in the sector include lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings and DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions.
The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation.
We like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. (ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit).
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be healthy with the first results kicking off next Monday. 3Q10 revenue growth of Reits under our coverage showed a 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY increase and we expect the trend to sustain into 4Q10 driven by both organic and inorganic growth. Most of the Reits under our coverage benefitted not only from rising occupancies and positive rental reversions but also new earnings contribution from acquisitions made in 2010.
Reits which benefitted from higher occupancies include Suntec Reit, Ascott Reit and CMT. Meanwhile, K-Reit and Cambridge Reit which divested part of their portfolio saw negative growth sequentially. However, we expect topline growth to improve as K-Reit’s MBFC phase 1 acquisition starts to contribute in 1Q11 and Cambridge Reit continues on its acquisition expansion mode.
Sequentially, Ebitda margins for the sector also improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates granted by the government in 2010. Along with the acquisitions, higher trust expenses, management fees and maintenance expenses also contributed to the margin erosion on a YoY basis.
Interest rates to remain depressed.
The depressed interest rates in Singapore will continue to benefit the S-Reits both in terms of refinancing as well as providing cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months. CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with the Singapore interbank offer rates at 0.20% over this period. With such low interest rates, we expect asset acquisitions in the sector to gain further traction. Cross border Reits would better positioned as they are able to tap into higher yielding assets outside of Singapore in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
The SGD currently at SGD1.3016/USD is near a 10year low and just 1.5% above the all time low of SGD1.2822/USD on 4th November 2010. We expect the Singapore dollar’s strength to persist throughout 2011 driven by MAS’s policy to combat inflation (CLSA forecast of 6.7% in 2011) through appreciating the SGD currency. Our economics team forecast the Singapore dollar to touch SGD$1.15/USD by end of the year and even lower at SGD$1.13/USD by end of 2012. This suggests that the SGD could potentially appreciate by a further 11.6% by end of the year.
The prospect of an appreciating currency could level the playing field for US based funds and generate a higher level of interests in the S-Reits sector among these US based funds. Currently, foreign institutional investors are subjected to a 10% withholding tax on distributions from the Reits. With the forecast of an 11.6% appreciation in the SGD/USD, the 10% withholding tax impact will essentially be negated in our view. Key beneficiaries among the SReits include purely Singapore focused Reits, CMT, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, Cache Logistic, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CCT, Suntec Reit and Frasers CentrePoint Trust.
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain our Overweight on the S-Reits. Further catalysts in the sector can come in the form of lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings in the low interest rate environment as well as DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions. The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation. In this space, we like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. Stocks which we have a positive recommendation includes ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit.
While healthy underlying fundamentals should translate into quality 4Q10 earnings, the depressed interest rate environment will benefit the sector through lower refinancing costs and provide cheap funding for yield accretive acquisitions. Furthermore, CLSA’s expectation of a strengthening SGD (S$1.15/USD by end of 2011) will garner higher interest among foreign institutional investors which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax. Maintain Overweight.
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be in line with our expectations.
3Q10 revenue growth of 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY were driven by both organic and inorganic growth, we expect the trend to sustain going into 4Q10.
Rising occupancies, positive rental reversions and contribution from acquisitions were key trends over the past few quarters.
Sector Ebitda margins improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates from by the government.
Interest rates to remain depressed
CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with SIBOR at 0.20% over this period.
Depressed interest rates will continue to benefit the S-Reits through lower cost of debt and provide cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
SGD1.3016/USD is currently near a 10year low.
Expect MAS to combat rising inflation (6.7% CLSA 2011 forecast) by further appreciating the currency in 2011. CLSA forecast this to hit SGD1.15/USD by 2011.
This suggests an 11.6% currency appreciation, fuelling interest among US and foreign based funds which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax.
Local Reits are beneficiaries – CMT, AREIT, CREIT, Cache, MIT, Suntec, FCT
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain Overweight on S-Reits.
Further catalysts in the sector include lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings and DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions.
The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation.
We like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. (ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit).
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be healthy with the first results kicking off next Monday. 3Q10 revenue growth of Reits under our coverage showed a 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY increase and we expect the trend to sustain into 4Q10 driven by both organic and inorganic growth. Most of the Reits under our coverage benefitted not only from rising occupancies and positive rental reversions but also new earnings contribution from acquisitions made in 2010.
Reits which benefitted from higher occupancies include Suntec Reit, Ascott Reit and CMT. Meanwhile, K-Reit and Cambridge Reit which divested part of their portfolio saw negative growth sequentially. However, we expect topline growth to improve as K-Reit’s MBFC phase 1 acquisition starts to contribute in 1Q11 and Cambridge Reit continues on its acquisition expansion mode.
Sequentially, Ebitda margins for the sector also improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates granted by the government in 2010. Along with the acquisitions, higher trust expenses, management fees and maintenance expenses also contributed to the margin erosion on a YoY basis.
Interest rates to remain depressed.
The depressed interest rates in Singapore will continue to benefit the S-Reits both in terms of refinancing as well as providing cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months. CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with the Singapore interbank offer rates at 0.20% over this period. With such low interest rates, we expect asset acquisitions in the sector to gain further traction. Cross border Reits would better positioned as they are able to tap into higher yielding assets outside of Singapore in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
The SGD currently at SGD1.3016/USD is near a 10year low and just 1.5% above the all time low of SGD1.2822/USD on 4th November 2010. We expect the Singapore dollar’s strength to persist throughout 2011 driven by MAS’s policy to combat inflation (CLSA forecast of 6.7% in 2011) through appreciating the SGD currency. Our economics team forecast the Singapore dollar to touch SGD$1.15/USD by end of the year and even lower at SGD$1.13/USD by end of 2012. This suggests that the SGD could potentially appreciate by a further 11.6% by end of the year.
The prospect of an appreciating currency could level the playing field for US based funds and generate a higher level of interests in the S-Reits sector among these US based funds. Currently, foreign institutional investors are subjected to a 10% withholding tax on distributions from the Reits. With the forecast of an 11.6% appreciation in the SGD/USD, the 10% withholding tax impact will essentially be negated in our view. Key beneficiaries among the SReits include purely Singapore focused Reits, CMT, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, Cache Logistic, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CCT, Suntec Reit and Frasers CentrePoint Trust.
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain our Overweight on the S-Reits. Further catalysts in the sector can come in the form of lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings in the low interest rate environment as well as DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions. The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation. In this space, we like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. Stocks which we have a positive recommendation includes ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Richard Russell’s Wisdom: Rich Man Poor Man
Richard Russell has been writing and publishing the Dow Theory Letters since 1958, and never has he missed an issue! It is the longest newsletter service continuously published by one person in the investment business. Richard is now 80 years old, and writes an extremely popular daily e-letter, full of commentary on the markets and whatever interests him that day. He gets up at 3 am or so and starts his daily (massive) reading and finishes the letter just after the markets close.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
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By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
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By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
Why REITs and Business Trust are not always good investments
valuebuddies.com is probably the place you want to be if you are into fundamental analysis. And the most interesting discussion that I was informed taking place is a discussion on REITs valuation.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
分享锦集：盯紧盈利莫放松冷眼
股票投资，其实有许多准则可以遵循的。问题是，准则太多了，要付诸于行动，难之又难。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Time is Money. Money is Time.
Time is Money
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT): Trading at an unwarranted discount
High quality assets, strong sponsor.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Suntec REIT: Downgrade to HOLD on valuation
Private placement to fund MBFC buy.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
分享锦集: 富向冷中求
冷门股是指交投不活跃及每天成交量低的股票。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
Monday, December 6, 2010
曾渊沧@股友通讯录-2010 年12 月份
11月的股市就像一个倒转的V字，先升后跌，打回原形 。美国联储局开会结果揭晓，将在明年第二季结束之前买入9000亿美元国债，其中6000亿美元是印出来的新钱， 另外3000亿美元是回收的钱。我之前已向大家解释过，过去一年，美国联储局实际上是不断地向市场回收资金而不是注入资金，这是静静地退市。现在，联储局总算清楚地告诉大家，新的注资额有多少、回收资金有多少及回收的钱再重新注入市场有多少。
今次6000亿美元的新增资金多吗？实际上只是市场预期的下限，10月中旬，股市出现调整时，市场所提出来的理由是什么？那就是当时市场突然收到风，说新一轮量化宽松的规模不会太大，大约只有5000亿美元,这与之前更多人以为会像去年那样注入近2万亿美元差得很远。
现在新一轮量化宽松的结果也的确与10月中旬市场所收到的风或者说预计的金额差不多，是属於市场较低的预期。有趣的是， QE2只有6000亿美元，与预期2万亿差得很远，只是市场预期的低位，11月上旬股市凭什么大幅上升?
原因只有一个，那就是大户已经控制了市场的情绪。大户不理QE2的规模，硬把股价炒上，试一试市场可以接受的短期顶位在哪里，股市一升，人的贪念就出现，人人争着买，股价就再升;QE2公布后，好消息已出尽，还有什么理由炒？好消息出尽，没了好消息，股市就会向反方向「创造」坏消息。是的，近日的坏消息，除了两韩
炮战之外，余者皆是大鳄精心炮制出来的。先是人为的制造中国加息的恐慌；然后是已沦为大鳄打手的美国评级
机构对欧洲几个国家的国债评级降低；当股市一跌，人的恐惧心就出现，不卖掉股票睡不着。如果你至今仍无法
克服贪婪与恐惧心，你肯定不可能是一名一流的投资者。
中国国务院推出4招來压通胀，分别为确保市场供应、完善补贴制度、加强监管及严惩恶意炒作，还说必要时要直接干预物价。这是一边放火，一边救火的作法，一手推动内需，增加老百姓的钱，制造通胀，另一手则压通胀。这对在新加坡上市的龙筹股带來压力。我一直认为，通胀不是大问题，如果收入高过通胀，通胀只是「快
乐的」问题。
台湾的五都选举终於结束了，这一次的选举，最大的特点是不论国民党或是民进党，都绝口不提台湾与大陆之间的独统问题， 大家集中话题於地方行政、论政积、地方发展蓝图… … 这是好事， 天大的好事。
2000年，民进党陈水扁上台后，台独课题就成了陈水扁的炒作，吸取选票的唯一方法，陈水扁对台湾的经济发展不关心，个人是大贪官。但是，为了争取选票，就不断地玩弄统独问题，把台湾民众撕裂、互相仇视，结果
社会严重分裂，终於民进党被陈水扁搞垮了。2008年，国民党重新上台执政，民进党痛定思痛之後，决定放弃陈水扁那一套，以理性、务实的态度重新定位。意味着两岸关系将维持相当长的一段良好关系，因为民进党已经改变了，变为务实得多的政党，不会无缘无故地像当年李登辉、陈水扁那样挑起事端、制造紧张。将来，台湾两党轮替，就算民进党再度执政，两岸关系也不会有太大的改变，极端思想已失去市场，务实思想成了主流。很肯定的，这对投资者而言是天大的好事。
南北韩局势突然紧张，过去许多年，每隔一段时间，北韩穷极就会发恶，目前就是要收点钱。北韩在打两百枚炮弹之前，可能早已事前在全球各地股市大量沽空。
南韩身娇肉贵，不想打仗。对中国而言，今日的中国也不会再打韩战了，因此当北韩闹事闹到差不多时，相信中国会出手制止北韩再胡闹。北韩也心知肚明，吓唬吓唬可以，真的大战，美军实力足以占领北韩，南北韩局势尽管紧张，但是不会真的变成大战。
股市走势依然飘忽，不要去猜，也不必猜。现在比较值得做的事是趁调整买入之前你想买而未买的股，经过了这一轮的调整后，部份股份的股价出现了相当大幅度的调整，PE下降了，我认为也许是时候考虑吸纳。我经说，投资要有耐性，当人人一哄而入，抢购PE极高的股时，你应该耐心地等调整。一场大牛市，股价不是天天向上，而是经历多次的调整，想买股，就应该坚守不买贵的原则，等股价出现调整，PE相对较低时才市。同时，也不可以有「捞底」的态，我们不可能很准确的以最低价买入，只要你认为PE值是相对低就行了，买入后股价是升是跌都不要理。
今次6000亿美元的新增资金多吗？实际上只是市场预期的下限，10月中旬，股市出现调整时，市场所提出来的理由是什么？那就是当时市场突然收到风，说新一轮量化宽松的规模不会太大，大约只有5000亿美元,这与之前更多人以为会像去年那样注入近2万亿美元差得很远。
现在新一轮量化宽松的结果也的确与10月中旬市场所收到的风或者说预计的金额差不多，是属於市场较低的预期。有趣的是， QE2只有6000亿美元，与预期2万亿差得很远，只是市场预期的低位，11月上旬股市凭什么大幅上升?
原因只有一个，那就是大户已经控制了市场的情绪。大户不理QE2的规模，硬把股价炒上，试一试市场可以接受的短期顶位在哪里，股市一升，人的贪念就出现，人人争着买，股价就再升;QE2公布后，好消息已出尽，还有什么理由炒？好消息出尽，没了好消息，股市就会向反方向「创造」坏消息。是的，近日的坏消息，除了两韩
炮战之外，余者皆是大鳄精心炮制出来的。先是人为的制造中国加息的恐慌；然后是已沦为大鳄打手的美国评级
机构对欧洲几个国家的国债评级降低；当股市一跌，人的恐惧心就出现，不卖掉股票睡不着。如果你至今仍无法
克服贪婪与恐惧心，你肯定不可能是一名一流的投资者。
中国国务院推出4招來压通胀，分别为确保市场供应、完善补贴制度、加强监管及严惩恶意炒作，还说必要时要直接干预物价。这是一边放火，一边救火的作法，一手推动内需，增加老百姓的钱，制造通胀，另一手则压通胀。这对在新加坡上市的龙筹股带來压力。我一直认为，通胀不是大问题，如果收入高过通胀，通胀只是「快
乐的」问题。
台湾的五都选举终於结束了，这一次的选举，最大的特点是不论国民党或是民进党，都绝口不提台湾与大陆之间的独统问题， 大家集中话题於地方行政、论政积、地方发展蓝图… … 这是好事， 天大的好事。
2000年，民进党陈水扁上台后，台独课题就成了陈水扁的炒作，吸取选票的唯一方法，陈水扁对台湾的经济发展不关心，个人是大贪官。但是，为了争取选票，就不断地玩弄统独问题，把台湾民众撕裂、互相仇视，结果
社会严重分裂，终於民进党被陈水扁搞垮了。2008年，国民党重新上台执政，民进党痛定思痛之後，决定放弃陈水扁那一套，以理性、务实的态度重新定位。意味着两岸关系将维持相当长的一段良好关系，因为民进党已经改变了，变为务实得多的政党，不会无缘无故地像当年李登辉、陈水扁那样挑起事端、制造紧张。将来，台湾两党轮替，就算民进党再度执政，两岸关系也不会有太大的改变，极端思想已失去市场，务实思想成了主流。很肯定的，这对投资者而言是天大的好事。
南北韩局势突然紧张，过去许多年，每隔一段时间，北韩穷极就会发恶，目前就是要收点钱。北韩在打两百枚炮弹之前，可能早已事前在全球各地股市大量沽空。
南韩身娇肉贵，不想打仗。对中国而言，今日的中国也不会再打韩战了，因此当北韩闹事闹到差不多时，相信中国会出手制止北韩再胡闹。北韩也心知肚明，吓唬吓唬可以，真的大战，美军实力足以占领北韩，南北韩局势尽管紧张，但是不会真的变成大战。
股市走势依然飘忽，不要去猜，也不必猜。现在比较值得做的事是趁调整买入之前你想买而未买的股，经过了这一轮的调整后，部份股份的股价出现了相当大幅度的调整，PE下降了，我认为也许是时候考虑吸纳。我经说，投资要有耐性，当人人一哄而入，抢购PE极高的股时，你应该耐心地等调整。一场大牛市，股价不是天天向上，而是经历多次的调整，想买股，就应该坚守不买贵的原则，等股价出现调整，PE相对较低时才市。同时，也不可以有「捞底」的态，我们不可能很准确的以最低价买入，只要你认为PE值是相对低就行了，买入后股价是升是跌都不要理。
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
分享锦集:李小龙的双节棍
环绕着股票投资这个课题，写了四十年的文章，写来写去，都脱离不了基本面。
忠实的读者，对我写的东西都有“熟头熟脸”的感觉。这也难怪，因为基本面的道理，无非是那一套，根本不可能有新奇怪异的论调。看得多了，有老生常谈之感，也是再自然不过的事。
请不要以为你说我“老生常谈”，我会感到不高兴，恰好相反，我反而感到荣幸，有被恭维的感觉，因为这表示我的主张，数十年不变。
条条大路通罗马
四十年前悟出来的投资道理，四十年后的今天，保持不变。一种主张，经得起四十年的考验，说明了它的扎实基础，我对基本面深信不疑，是因为它以绩效证明它的价值。
条条大路通罗马。股票投资赚钱法，五花八门，各路人马在股市中各显神通；尽管法宝各异，但结果却大致相同，都赚到了钱。
假如你研究世界成功投资家的窍门的话，你会发现没有两个人所用的方法是相同的，但他们都同样成功。
通过股票投资，为他们自己或是他们所主持的基金，创造了财富，其中最著名的，当然首推巴菲特，他单靠投资股票，成为世界第二富有的人，仅次于微软的盖茨。
研究巴菲特的书，汗牛充栋，然而，世界并未出现第二个巴菲特。可见巴菲特所用的方法，只适用于他本人，别人模仿不得。尽管他的主张具有极大的普遍性，但别人应用起来，却不灵光。
就好像同是剑，在剑客手中，可以出神入化，但在普通武夫手中，却发挥不了威力。
模仿别人不明智
日前重新欣赏李小龙电影，发现一条双节棍在他手中舞劲，成为最犀利的武器；假如在门外汉手中舞动的话，不但不能克敌致胜，反而会敲破自己头。
可见模仿别人，并非明智之举。要在股市投资成功，惟一的可靠途径，是走自己的道路——一条独特的，适合你自己的路，然后坚定不移的走下去。造次必于是，颠沛必于是，这样，才有可能在股市中扬眉吐气。
每个人的性格、财务情况、人生观、环境、负担，都不一样，因此所形成的投资哲理，也必然完全不同。
例如性格稳健的人，最适合他的，应该是稳扎稳打的投资者，他只要发挥他的特长，在股市中买进基础扎实，盈利平稳的股票，比如种植股，长期持有，成功的可能性就大大的提高。
如果他不了解自己的性格，采取投机的投资概念，在股市中抢进杀出，企图快速致富的话，最后必然焦头烂额。
坚忍不拔精神
股票投资，不是单靠知识就可以成功的，要成功必须具备其他成功条件。
其中之一就是坚忍不拔的精神，股票投资，胜败是兵家常事，那些经不起失败考验，股市大跌时变得垂头丧气，甚至神经兮兮的人，不大可能在股市投资成功。
股市中另一种常见的，是“鸵鸟型”投资者，股市沸腾时他意气风发，股市崩溃时，他连看股市的勇气也没有。
成功的投资者，是无论股市兴衰，他都紧盯其股票，沉着应战，在险象环生的环境中杀出一条血路。
没有免费午餐
还有一种常见的失败者，是永远不会从失败中吸取经验的人，他一再重复错误，明知是错误的做法，却没有改弦易辙的决心，就这样一直错下去，奇怪的是他也不会离开股市，这种“长亏”型投资者，俯拾即是。
股市中没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才会有一分收获。许多人有一种错误的想法，以为股市是最容易赚钱的地方，实际上刚好相反，股市赚钱难，难赚钱。
惟有观念正确，肯下苦功做功课，有坚忍不拔的精神及极大的耐心的人，才有可能在股市赚钱。
孟子曰“梓匠轮舆能与人规矩，不能使人巧”《尽心篇》（白话：制作车轮、车箱的木匠，能把方法传授给他人，却不能使他人技艺巧妙）。
同样的，股票投资的基本法则并不难懂，但如何应用这些法则在股市投资成功，却还要靠投资者自己去领悟与摸索，没有人可以帮助你，这就是世界至今还没有出现第二个巴菲特的原因。
投资是个人化
股票投资是非常个人化的事，别人帮不了忙。所以投资大师邓普顿说：“最好的投资决定来自个人，并非来自一个委员会。”别人的意见，只能作为参考，却不可全盘照收，因为别人并没有为你赚钱的义务，你享受你的投资成果，所以你必须承担你的投资责任，要别人承担你的投资失败是不公平的。
根据自己的情况，建立自己投资理念，找出适合自己道路，择善而固执，坚决不移的走下去，只要长期能为你赚钱，就是走对了路，切勿轻易改变跑道。
记住，适合别人的，未必适合你。所以不要羡慕别人，只管沿着你的道路走下去，一定能走出一个春天来。
忠实的读者，对我写的东西都有“熟头熟脸”的感觉。这也难怪，因为基本面的道理，无非是那一套，根本不可能有新奇怪异的论调。看得多了，有老生常谈之感，也是再自然不过的事。
请不要以为你说我“老生常谈”，我会感到不高兴，恰好相反，我反而感到荣幸，有被恭维的感觉，因为这表示我的主张，数十年不变。
条条大路通罗马
四十年前悟出来的投资道理，四十年后的今天，保持不变。一种主张，经得起四十年的考验，说明了它的扎实基础，我对基本面深信不疑，是因为它以绩效证明它的价值。
条条大路通罗马。股票投资赚钱法，五花八门，各路人马在股市中各显神通；尽管法宝各异，但结果却大致相同，都赚到了钱。
假如你研究世界成功投资家的窍门的话，你会发现没有两个人所用的方法是相同的，但他们都同样成功。
通过股票投资，为他们自己或是他们所主持的基金，创造了财富，其中最著名的，当然首推巴菲特，他单靠投资股票，成为世界第二富有的人，仅次于微软的盖茨。
研究巴菲特的书，汗牛充栋，然而，世界并未出现第二个巴菲特。可见巴菲特所用的方法，只适用于他本人，别人模仿不得。尽管他的主张具有极大的普遍性，但别人应用起来，却不灵光。
就好像同是剑，在剑客手中，可以出神入化，但在普通武夫手中，却发挥不了威力。
模仿别人不明智
日前重新欣赏李小龙电影，发现一条双节棍在他手中舞劲，成为最犀利的武器；假如在门外汉手中舞动的话，不但不能克敌致胜，反而会敲破自己头。
可见模仿别人，并非明智之举。要在股市投资成功，惟一的可靠途径，是走自己的道路——一条独特的，适合你自己的路，然后坚定不移的走下去。造次必于是，颠沛必于是，这样，才有可能在股市中扬眉吐气。
每个人的性格、财务情况、人生观、环境、负担，都不一样，因此所形成的投资哲理，也必然完全不同。
例如性格稳健的人，最适合他的，应该是稳扎稳打的投资者，他只要发挥他的特长，在股市中买进基础扎实，盈利平稳的股票，比如种植股，长期持有，成功的可能性就大大的提高。
如果他不了解自己的性格，采取投机的投资概念，在股市中抢进杀出，企图快速致富的话，最后必然焦头烂额。
坚忍不拔精神
股票投资，不是单靠知识就可以成功的，要成功必须具备其他成功条件。
其中之一就是坚忍不拔的精神，股票投资，胜败是兵家常事，那些经不起失败考验，股市大跌时变得垂头丧气，甚至神经兮兮的人，不大可能在股市投资成功。
股市中另一种常见的，是“鸵鸟型”投资者，股市沸腾时他意气风发，股市崩溃时，他连看股市的勇气也没有。
成功的投资者，是无论股市兴衰，他都紧盯其股票，沉着应战，在险象环生的环境中杀出一条血路。
没有免费午餐
还有一种常见的失败者，是永远不会从失败中吸取经验的人，他一再重复错误，明知是错误的做法，却没有改弦易辙的决心，就这样一直错下去，奇怪的是他也不会离开股市，这种“长亏”型投资者，俯拾即是。
股市中没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才会有一分收获。许多人有一种错误的想法，以为股市是最容易赚钱的地方，实际上刚好相反，股市赚钱难，难赚钱。
惟有观念正确，肯下苦功做功课，有坚忍不拔的精神及极大的耐心的人，才有可能在股市赚钱。
孟子曰“梓匠轮舆能与人规矩，不能使人巧”《尽心篇》（白话：制作车轮、车箱的木匠，能把方法传授给他人，却不能使他人技艺巧妙）。
同样的，股票投资的基本法则并不难懂，但如何应用这些法则在股市投资成功，却还要靠投资者自己去领悟与摸索，没有人可以帮助你，这就是世界至今还没有出现第二个巴菲特的原因。
投资是个人化
股票投资是非常个人化的事，别人帮不了忙。所以投资大师邓普顿说：“最好的投资决定来自个人，并非来自一个委员会。”别人的意见，只能作为参考，却不可全盘照收，因为别人并没有为你赚钱的义务，你享受你的投资成果，所以你必须承担你的投资责任，要别人承担你的投资失败是不公平的。
根据自己的情况，建立自己投资理念，找出适合自己道路，择善而固执，坚决不移的走下去，只要长期能为你赚钱，就是走对了路，切勿轻易改变跑道。
记住，适合别人的，未必适合你。所以不要羡慕别人，只管沿着你的道路走下去，一定能走出一个春天来。
分享锦集：深读年报 寻宝藏
股票投资者在收到他持有股份的公司的常年报告书之后，能翻开来细读的，少之又少。
大部分投资者，对年报都不屑一顾，更不要说深入阅读了。
而他投资于这家公司的资金，可能多达百万令吉，投入这么大笔的资金，却对有关公司的实况，一无所知，这种草率的态度，实在令人费解。
大部分股票投资者，都申诉股票资料难找，实际上刚好相反。
上市公司都必须遵守上市条例，按时公布公司的营业状况，这就是公司每三个月发布一次的季报和每年发布一次的年报，他们所必须公布的资料都是上市条例所规定的，不得偷工减料，这些资料足供投资者评估股票的价值。
投资者只要细读，对公司股份的价值，即使不能深入了解，最低限度，也会有一个清楚的概念。
谣言出错高
可惜大部分投资者都不肯花时间、精神去做功课，反而到处打听消息，听信谣言，以此作为买进卖出的根据，根据不可靠的资料作出的决定，出错的机会当然较高，难怪股市中人，总是亏多赚少。
了解公司进展
在股票研究中，年报是主要的资料来源，其重要性不言而喻。假如你要长期在股市中生存，养成阅读年报的习惯，是最起码的条件。
一家公司的年报，习惯上只报告过去一年的营业进展，过去的略而不提。所以，要了解一家公司，一定要阅读多年的年报，对公司的进展，才能了然于心。
我们知道，所有企业的营运，都是连续性的，如果只读一年的年报，对过去一无所知，你很难对公司的业务进程，有清楚的认识。
年报了解演变
这种情形，就好像我们只读断代史，无法了解一个国家的演变一样。所以，投资者除了读当年的年报之外，最好是同时阅读历年的年报。
马来西亚股票交易所由2002年起，通过www.bursamalaysia.com，给投资者免费提供的年报、季报和公司的文告，2002年以来的资料全部完整的保存在该所的网站中，这些都是非常宝贵的资料，不好好的利用，实在可惜。
评价资产价值
年报中刊载了非常宝贵的资料，如果你深入阅读的话，你不难找到宝藏。
这些都是非常难得的“贴士”，善加应用，可能为你带来意想不到的财富。
大家都知道，评估股票价值的三个最常用标准为本益比、周息率和每股净有形资产价值。买进股票的其中一个考量是：有关股票的价值是不是被低估？而评定价值是不是被低估的其中一个标准，就是每股净有形资产价值是不是比市价高。
考虑前途展望
当然，每股净有形资产价值只是评估标准之一，一只股票值不值得买进，除了净有形资产价值之外，还要考虑其他的因素，例如前途展望。
所有的年报，都会提供该公司股票的每股净有形资产价值（Net Tangible Asset Per Share，简称NTA）。账目中所提供的数字，到底可靠不可靠？是比市价低还是高？
随手举一个例子说明：如果你翻阅刚出炉的第一控股工业（FACB IND）年报的话，你就可以找到答案。
轻易算出产业价值
每一本年报都有一个“产业表”，列出该公司所拥有的房地产的地点、用途、面积、年龄、地契年期（永久性还是租用期地契）、账面价值和估值年份。
从这些资料，你可以轻易的算出有关产业的价值，从而看出该公司的产业价值是高过或低过市价。
【例一】第一控股工业
就以第一控股工业来说，该公司在两个工业区拥有厂地和厂房：
第一个是在麻坡的丹绒阿卡斯工业区拥有约5英亩厂地，为梦乡床垫（Dreamland）的制造厂所在地（第一控股工业的前身为梦乡），这组厂房厂地在账目中的价值为312万6000令吉，或是每平方尺14令吉39仙，估值年度为1991年。目前在账目中的价值仍为19年前的价值。
19年来，这些厂地厂房的价值涨了多少倍？现在的市值是多少？我们无从估计，但有一点是肯定的，市值必然高过19年前的价值。
第二个地点是在雪兰莪莎阿南工业区的厂地和厂房，也就是该公司主要业务——白钢厂所在地，厂地20.144英亩，99年地契，到2098年届满，账面价值为3724万5000令吉，估值年度为1992年。
到底这18年来，莎阿南的工业地涨了多少倍？我没有足够的资料可以佐证。但常识告诉我们：18年前买下的厂地，现在价值肯定已上涨了几倍。所以，3724万5000令吉的账面价值，肯定是被低估。
所以，假如第一控股工业重估其地产的话，该公司的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比年报中的2令吉16仙为高。
【例二】金狮工业
金狮工业是另一个典型例子。该公司在巴生武吉拉查的60英亩钢铁厂厂地，在账目中的价值仅3160万令吉，那是1994年的估值，现在涨了多少倍？
该公司的地产多达30宗，分散在雪、甲、柔、槟等高成长区，估值年度由1991至2008年不等，市价肯定比账面价值高。
换句话说，金狮工业的每股净有形资产价值肯定高过年报中的4令吉25仙。
【例三】金兴工业
金兴工业（Kim Hin）是一家瓷砖制造厂。在古晋、芙蓉、上海、澳洲设有工厂及仓库。这些产业的估值年度为古晋：1992（31英亩）；芙蓉：1989（15.15英亩）；上海：1992（53英亩）；澳洲悉尼：1995（4.87英亩）；雪兰莪加埔：2005（5.98英亩）。
目前的价值，肯定比账面价值高几倍。如果重新估值，每股净有形资产价值肯定比3令吉08仙的账面价值高，难怪该公司大股东持续不断的从股市吸购该公司的股票。
该公司的每股现金及准现金（债券、单位信托等），几乎等于其股票市价。
【例四】东方实业
东方实业（Oriental Holdings）在年报中，以18页的编幅，列出该公司所拥有的房地产。
这些遍布大马各州及印尼的产业，用途包括园丘、工业地、酒店、商业地等，估值年度由1968年到2009年，但绝大部分是80及90年代的估值，除非全面重新估值，否则该公司董事恐怕也无法准确知道其价值。
但有一点是可以肯定的，这些房地产的市值，肯定比账面价值不知高多少倍。
换句话说，东方实业的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比在6月30日时的7令吉43仙为高。更值得注意的是，该公司在6月底时的净现金高达近20亿令吉，成为大马现金最充沛的上市公司之一。
我随手举几个例子，旨在说明一点：股价虽然已屡创高峰，实际上，许多上市公司的每股净有形资产价值仍比市价低一截。像这类公司，其实还很多，只要你深入阅读年报，你不难有所发现。
我要特别指出：每股净有形资产价值，只是评估股票价值是否被低估的标准之一而已。一只股票是否值得买进，还要配合其他的因素如本益比、周息率、现金流、前途展望等，才能决定，不能单看每股净资产价值。
但是，假如其他因素相同的话，每股净有形资产价值雄厚的公司，其股票更值得投资。
年报蕴藏着许多宝藏，等待你去发掘。有恒地深读年报，必有所发现。
大部分投资者，对年报都不屑一顾，更不要说深入阅读了。
而他投资于这家公司的资金，可能多达百万令吉，投入这么大笔的资金，却对有关公司的实况，一无所知，这种草率的态度，实在令人费解。
大部分股票投资者，都申诉股票资料难找，实际上刚好相反。
上市公司都必须遵守上市条例，按时公布公司的营业状况，这就是公司每三个月发布一次的季报和每年发布一次的年报，他们所必须公布的资料都是上市条例所规定的，不得偷工减料，这些资料足供投资者评估股票的价值。
投资者只要细读，对公司股份的价值，即使不能深入了解，最低限度，也会有一个清楚的概念。
谣言出错高
可惜大部分投资者都不肯花时间、精神去做功课，反而到处打听消息，听信谣言，以此作为买进卖出的根据，根据不可靠的资料作出的决定，出错的机会当然较高，难怪股市中人，总是亏多赚少。
了解公司进展
在股票研究中，年报是主要的资料来源，其重要性不言而喻。假如你要长期在股市中生存，养成阅读年报的习惯，是最起码的条件。
一家公司的年报，习惯上只报告过去一年的营业进展，过去的略而不提。所以，要了解一家公司，一定要阅读多年的年报，对公司的进展，才能了然于心。
我们知道，所有企业的营运，都是连续性的，如果只读一年的年报，对过去一无所知，你很难对公司的业务进程，有清楚的认识。
年报了解演变
这种情形，就好像我们只读断代史，无法了解一个国家的演变一样。所以，投资者除了读当年的年报之外，最好是同时阅读历年的年报。
马来西亚股票交易所由2002年起，通过www.bursamalaysia.com，给投资者免费提供的年报、季报和公司的文告，2002年以来的资料全部完整的保存在该所的网站中，这些都是非常宝贵的资料，不好好的利用，实在可惜。
评价资产价值
年报中刊载了非常宝贵的资料，如果你深入阅读的话，你不难找到宝藏。
这些都是非常难得的“贴士”，善加应用，可能为你带来意想不到的财富。
大家都知道，评估股票价值的三个最常用标准为本益比、周息率和每股净有形资产价值。买进股票的其中一个考量是：有关股票的价值是不是被低估？而评定价值是不是被低估的其中一个标准，就是每股净有形资产价值是不是比市价高。
考虑前途展望
当然，每股净有形资产价值只是评估标准之一，一只股票值不值得买进，除了净有形资产价值之外，还要考虑其他的因素，例如前途展望。
所有的年报，都会提供该公司股票的每股净有形资产价值（Net Tangible Asset Per Share，简称NTA）。账目中所提供的数字，到底可靠不可靠？是比市价低还是高？
随手举一个例子说明：如果你翻阅刚出炉的第一控股工业（FACB IND）年报的话，你就可以找到答案。
轻易算出产业价值
每一本年报都有一个“产业表”，列出该公司所拥有的房地产的地点、用途、面积、年龄、地契年期（永久性还是租用期地契）、账面价值和估值年份。
从这些资料，你可以轻易的算出有关产业的价值，从而看出该公司的产业价值是高过或低过市价。
【例一】第一控股工业
就以第一控股工业来说，该公司在两个工业区拥有厂地和厂房：
第一个是在麻坡的丹绒阿卡斯工业区拥有约5英亩厂地，为梦乡床垫（Dreamland）的制造厂所在地（第一控股工业的前身为梦乡），这组厂房厂地在账目中的价值为312万6000令吉，或是每平方尺14令吉39仙，估值年度为1991年。目前在账目中的价值仍为19年前的价值。
19年来，这些厂地厂房的价值涨了多少倍？现在的市值是多少？我们无从估计，但有一点是肯定的，市值必然高过19年前的价值。
第二个地点是在雪兰莪莎阿南工业区的厂地和厂房，也就是该公司主要业务——白钢厂所在地，厂地20.144英亩，99年地契，到2098年届满，账面价值为3724万5000令吉，估值年度为1992年。
到底这18年来，莎阿南的工业地涨了多少倍？我没有足够的资料可以佐证。但常识告诉我们：18年前买下的厂地，现在价值肯定已上涨了几倍。所以，3724万5000令吉的账面价值，肯定是被低估。
所以，假如第一控股工业重估其地产的话，该公司的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比年报中的2令吉16仙为高。
【例二】金狮工业
金狮工业是另一个典型例子。该公司在巴生武吉拉查的60英亩钢铁厂厂地，在账目中的价值仅3160万令吉，那是1994年的估值，现在涨了多少倍？
该公司的地产多达30宗，分散在雪、甲、柔、槟等高成长区，估值年度由1991至2008年不等，市价肯定比账面价值高。
换句话说，金狮工业的每股净有形资产价值肯定高过年报中的4令吉25仙。
【例三】金兴工业
金兴工业（Kim Hin）是一家瓷砖制造厂。在古晋、芙蓉、上海、澳洲设有工厂及仓库。这些产业的估值年度为古晋：1992（31英亩）；芙蓉：1989（15.15英亩）；上海：1992（53英亩）；澳洲悉尼：1995（4.87英亩）；雪兰莪加埔：2005（5.98英亩）。
目前的价值，肯定比账面价值高几倍。如果重新估值，每股净有形资产价值肯定比3令吉08仙的账面价值高，难怪该公司大股东持续不断的从股市吸购该公司的股票。
该公司的每股现金及准现金（债券、单位信托等），几乎等于其股票市价。
【例四】东方实业
东方实业（Oriental Holdings）在年报中，以18页的编幅，列出该公司所拥有的房地产。
这些遍布大马各州及印尼的产业，用途包括园丘、工业地、酒店、商业地等，估值年度由1968年到2009年，但绝大部分是80及90年代的估值，除非全面重新估值，否则该公司董事恐怕也无法准确知道其价值。
但有一点是可以肯定的，这些房地产的市值，肯定比账面价值不知高多少倍。
换句话说，东方实业的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比在6月30日时的7令吉43仙为高。更值得注意的是，该公司在6月底时的净现金高达近20亿令吉，成为大马现金最充沛的上市公司之一。
我随手举几个例子，旨在说明一点：股价虽然已屡创高峰，实际上，许多上市公司的每股净有形资产价值仍比市价低一截。像这类公司，其实还很多，只要你深入阅读年报，你不难有所发现。
我要特别指出：每股净有形资产价值，只是评估股票价值是否被低估的标准之一而已。一只股票是否值得买进，还要配合其他的因素如本益比、周息率、现金流、前途展望等，才能决定，不能单看每股净资产价值。
但是，假如其他因素相同的话，每股净有形资产价值雄厚的公司，其股票更值得投资。
年报蕴藏着许多宝藏，等待你去发掘。有恒地深读年报，必有所发现。
分享锦集：莫做股市“过动儿”
去年8月15日，我在这个专栏发表一篇题为“不动如山两年”的文章，劝告股票投资者，握紧他们的股票为期两年，以博取厚利。
当时，大马综合指数为1,100点，15个月后的今天，指数已升至1,500点，那些坚守“不动如山”策略的股友，已取得非常丰厚的盈利。
次贷金融海啸于2009年第一季触底时，大马综合指数约为850点，在回升至1,100点时，许多股票分析师认为经济的复苏不可靠，股市回升得太快，纷纷警告股市将回跌，因此劝告股友套利离场。
我不同意此种看法和做法，因此才提出“不动如山两年”的主张，我认为散户应充份利用复苏机会，赚取厚利，太早离场，错过赚取厚利良机，未免可惜，毕竟金融海啸，恐怕10年也不会再现。
我主张“不动如山”，是我认为这是最适合散户的策略，可以减低风险，而获利最丰。如果散户自作聪明，不断的在股市中抢进杀出，愈买愈高，风险也愈大，所获盈利，未必比“不动如山”更多，倒不如以静待动，坐享其成。
抢进杀出
更重要是抢进杀出，精神受尽焦虑的煎熬，情绪不稳，影响健康、工作效率和家庭生活，所付出的代价太大，即使赚到钱，也是得不偿失，倒不如“不动如山”，安安稳稳赚钱，逍逍遥遥过活。
许多人对股票投资，有一种错误的想法，认为在股市中买卖越活跃，赚钱就越多，动作与盈利成正比。实际上刚好相反，在股市中越活跃，越难赚钱，反而是动作越少的人，赚钱越易，股市“过动儿”赚钱的少之又少。
动作要少
在这一轮的金融海啸中，不少人在谷底时买到股票，但大部份都在股价略为回升时就套利离场，所赚有限，无法弥补熊市中的损失。
在卖出后眼巴巴的看着股价以大涨小回调的形式上升，才为之痛心疾首，徒呼负负。
反而是那些在谷底买进后就紧握股票至今的投资者，取得惊人的回酬，充份说明了动作越少越好，这种做法，表面上看起来是老土，实际上是大智若愚。
在过去一年多中，世界经济发生了几件惊天动地的大事，首先是迪拜的倒账，接着是欧洲债市的濒临崩溃，悲观的经济学家及预言家，纷纷发出了经济“双底”论，认为世界经济将出现W的势。
这些论调，使在次贷金融海啸中惊魂未定的投资者，风声鹤唳，不敢在股市久留，结果错过了赚钱良机。
预言只可参考不能尽信
现在，再也没有人提迪拜事件、欧洲债务危机了。当然也没有人再提“双底”衰退了。我为今旧事重提，难免有事后孔明之讥，实际上，我是要藉以说明两点：
1.是经济学家和股市预言家的预言，失准的次数远多於准确的次数，因此，只可用作参考，切不可尽信。
2.许多事件，其严重性被过份渲染，甚至以偏盖全，误导对经济和股市认识不深的投资者，使他们对将来的趋势，以及前景，作错误诠释，从而作出错误的判断，坐失投资良机。
是的，现在毕竟已事过境迁，多说於事无补，目前大家所关心的是：将来的经济和股市走向如何？投资者该怎样做？当美国道琼斯工业指数回升至11,444点，而大马股市指数突破1,500点时，投资者是否应继续留在股市？手中没有股票的人该不该进场？
我的主张是：
1.手中已有股票的，应“不动如山一年”，一年以后审时度势再行决定去留。
2.手中没有股票的，应把重点转移至第2线股价尚未大幅度窜升，而价值仍被低估的股票，买进后紧握不放，等待牛市的出现。
股市难测
我没有预测股市动向的能力，也不认为任何人有这种能力，因为股市是不可预测的。无数的人企图采用各种的“工具”，预测股市动向，成功的巴仙率低之又低。
通常股市分析师都言之有理，问题是股市根本是不可理喻，因此一切的预言，不妨作为参考，切忌全盘照收。在这种情形之下，我们根据什么进行投资？
答案是：根据股票的价值。
在买进的时候，一定要作好心理准备：我们是认为一个牛市正在浮现，但是，万一我们的预测失准，那么，我们现在所买进的股票，是否物有所值？是否有前途？
反败为胜
如果买价合理，而公司前途亮丽，盈利会持续上升。
那么，即使股市逆转，股价回调，我们所买的股票价值与日俱增，暂时蒙受亏损，将来仍有机会回升，仍有机会反败为胜。
如果听信似是而非的传言买进劣股的话，一旦股市逆转，股价暴跌后，因公司蒙受亏蚀而使股价长期不振，投资者就没翻身机会了。
在无法预测股市的情况下，以“价值”作为买进的原则，是较为可靠的方法。
在买进时，一定要问自己：万一股价暴跌，我有胆识买进更多同一只股票吗？
如果答案是“是”的话，则不妨买进，如果是“否”的话，则最好不要买进。不敢在股价暴跌后买进更多同一只股票，说明了你对该股没有信心，而没有信心是因为你认识不够，或是对该股前途没有信心，切勿投资於你认识不够及没有信心的股票，这是股票投资不可妥协的铁则。
不动如山
美国经济复苏的步伐，已更稳健，大马周边国家如印尼、泰国、菲律宾的股市在外资炒作下，屡创新高，外资会移师大马吗？大马利息低沉，游资充沛，原产品龙腾虎跃，产业市场炽热，股市会长期蛰伏不动吗？1993年的牛市会重演吗？
在没有人能斩钉截铁地回答这些问题的情况下，散户最好的避险策略，就是不动如山。不动如山多久？去年8月我提出“不动如山两年”，一年已过去了，我现在建议“不动如山一年”。
建议选股标准：
1.股价合理（本益比10倍以下）
2.盈利有增长（来年盈利可望比往年高）
3.债低，若债高则必须现金流平稳。
4.周息率高於银行定存利息。
5.行业景气走上坡。
当时，大马综合指数为1,100点，15个月后的今天，指数已升至1,500点，那些坚守“不动如山”策略的股友，已取得非常丰厚的盈利。
次贷金融海啸于2009年第一季触底时，大马综合指数约为850点，在回升至1,100点时，许多股票分析师认为经济的复苏不可靠，股市回升得太快，纷纷警告股市将回跌，因此劝告股友套利离场。
我不同意此种看法和做法，因此才提出“不动如山两年”的主张，我认为散户应充份利用复苏机会，赚取厚利，太早离场，错过赚取厚利良机，未免可惜，毕竟金融海啸，恐怕10年也不会再现。
我主张“不动如山”，是我认为这是最适合散户的策略，可以减低风险，而获利最丰。如果散户自作聪明，不断的在股市中抢进杀出，愈买愈高，风险也愈大，所获盈利，未必比“不动如山”更多，倒不如以静待动，坐享其成。
抢进杀出
更重要是抢进杀出，精神受尽焦虑的煎熬，情绪不稳，影响健康、工作效率和家庭生活，所付出的代价太大，即使赚到钱，也是得不偿失，倒不如“不动如山”，安安稳稳赚钱，逍逍遥遥过活。
许多人对股票投资，有一种错误的想法，认为在股市中买卖越活跃，赚钱就越多，动作与盈利成正比。实际上刚好相反，在股市中越活跃，越难赚钱，反而是动作越少的人，赚钱越易，股市“过动儿”赚钱的少之又少。
动作要少
在这一轮的金融海啸中，不少人在谷底时买到股票，但大部份都在股价略为回升时就套利离场，所赚有限，无法弥补熊市中的损失。
在卖出后眼巴巴的看着股价以大涨小回调的形式上升，才为之痛心疾首，徒呼负负。
反而是那些在谷底买进后就紧握股票至今的投资者，取得惊人的回酬，充份说明了动作越少越好，这种做法，表面上看起来是老土，实际上是大智若愚。
在过去一年多中，世界经济发生了几件惊天动地的大事，首先是迪拜的倒账，接着是欧洲债市的濒临崩溃，悲观的经济学家及预言家，纷纷发出了经济“双底”论，认为世界经济将出现W的势。
这些论调，使在次贷金融海啸中惊魂未定的投资者，风声鹤唳，不敢在股市久留，结果错过了赚钱良机。
预言只可参考不能尽信
现在，再也没有人提迪拜事件、欧洲债务危机了。当然也没有人再提“双底”衰退了。我为今旧事重提，难免有事后孔明之讥，实际上，我是要藉以说明两点：
1.是经济学家和股市预言家的预言，失准的次数远多於准确的次数，因此，只可用作参考，切不可尽信。
2.许多事件，其严重性被过份渲染，甚至以偏盖全，误导对经济和股市认识不深的投资者，使他们对将来的趋势，以及前景，作错误诠释，从而作出错误的判断，坐失投资良机。
是的，现在毕竟已事过境迁，多说於事无补，目前大家所关心的是：将来的经济和股市走向如何？投资者该怎样做？当美国道琼斯工业指数回升至11,444点，而大马股市指数突破1,500点时，投资者是否应继续留在股市？手中没有股票的人该不该进场？
我的主张是：
1.手中已有股票的，应“不动如山一年”，一年以后审时度势再行决定去留。
2.手中没有股票的，应把重点转移至第2线股价尚未大幅度窜升，而价值仍被低估的股票，买进后紧握不放，等待牛市的出现。
股市难测
我没有预测股市动向的能力，也不认为任何人有这种能力，因为股市是不可预测的。无数的人企图采用各种的“工具”，预测股市动向，成功的巴仙率低之又低。
通常股市分析师都言之有理，问题是股市根本是不可理喻，因此一切的预言，不妨作为参考，切忌全盘照收。在这种情形之下，我们根据什么进行投资？
答案是：根据股票的价值。
在买进的时候，一定要作好心理准备：我们是认为一个牛市正在浮现，但是，万一我们的预测失准，那么，我们现在所买进的股票，是否物有所值？是否有前途？
反败为胜
如果买价合理，而公司前途亮丽，盈利会持续上升。
那么，即使股市逆转，股价回调，我们所买的股票价值与日俱增，暂时蒙受亏损，将来仍有机会回升，仍有机会反败为胜。
如果听信似是而非的传言买进劣股的话，一旦股市逆转，股价暴跌后，因公司蒙受亏蚀而使股价长期不振，投资者就没翻身机会了。
在无法预测股市的情况下，以“价值”作为买进的原则，是较为可靠的方法。
在买进时，一定要问自己：万一股价暴跌，我有胆识买进更多同一只股票吗？
如果答案是“是”的话，则不妨买进，如果是“否”的话，则最好不要买进。不敢在股价暴跌后买进更多同一只股票，说明了你对该股没有信心，而没有信心是因为你认识不够，或是对该股前途没有信心，切勿投资於你认识不够及没有信心的股票，这是股票投资不可妥协的铁则。
不动如山
美国经济复苏的步伐，已更稳健，大马周边国家如印尼、泰国、菲律宾的股市在外资炒作下，屡创新高，外资会移师大马吗？大马利息低沉，游资充沛，原产品龙腾虎跃，产业市场炽热，股市会长期蛰伏不动吗？1993年的牛市会重演吗？
在没有人能斩钉截铁地回答这些问题的情况下，散户最好的避险策略，就是不动如山。不动如山多久？去年8月我提出“不动如山两年”，一年已过去了，我现在建议“不动如山一年”。
建议选股标准：
1.股价合理（本益比10倍以下）
2.盈利有增长（来年盈利可望比往年高）
3.债低，若债高则必须现金流平稳。
4.周息率高於银行定存利息。
5.行业景气走上坡。
Monday, November 29, 2010
Suntec REIT May Fall On Private Placement News
Expect knee-jerk reaction to Suntec REIT''s planned placement of up to 320 million new units, as 3.5%-6.0% discount to S$1.43 last traded price may spur some selling; REIT selling units at S$1.34-S$1.38, raising up to S$428.8 million to part finance acquisition of one-third stake in MBFC Towers 1, 2, Marina Bay Link Mall, 695 parking spaces.
No details on management''s expectation for DPU accretion, but increased exposure to grade-A office space in upcoming Marina Bay widely seen as positive, with office currently hottest among Singapore property segments.
Deutsche Bank, which has Buy rating, S$1.65 target, estimates slight 2.8%-3.5% (0.25-0.31 cents) accretion to FY11 DPU from buy; when buy announced in October said "operationally, while retail continues to be relatively weak, demand trends for office are positive."
No details on when trade to resume; units likely to hold above issue price range.
No details on management''s expectation for DPU accretion, but increased exposure to grade-A office space in upcoming Marina Bay widely seen as positive, with office currently hottest among Singapore property segments.
Deutsche Bank, which has Buy rating, S$1.65 target, estimates slight 2.8%-3.5% (0.25-0.31 cents) accretion to FY11 DPU from buy; when buy announced in October said "operationally, while retail continues to be relatively weak, demand trends for office are positive."
No details on when trade to resume; units likely to hold above issue price range.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
塞思·卡拉曼：现金管理的意义
塞思·卡拉曼经常保持45%-50%的现金，但这并不妨碍他在20余年的时间里取得年均复合超过20%的回报率。
虽然沃伦·巴菲特曾说现金是垃圾，但卡拉曼深知，有时候现金就是最好的投资。以日本市场为例，由于日本隔夜储蓄市场的利率几乎为零，因此许多投资者从该市场退出并在其他地方寻找投资。2003年6月，他们接受了年收益率仅为0.44%的10年期债券。到了10月，这一债券价格从高于面值跌至面值的90%以下——使得收益率超过1.5%。于是投资者在这4个月中赔的钱是他们持有这一荒唐定价的债券整整10年获得的总回报的两倍还多。
现金就是最好的投资，不过，这一点却常常被投资者所忽略，其中也包括我个人在内。如果说许多投资者认为在市场下跌时持有现金尚且是难以容忍的，那么在市场上涨时持有现金更是考虑都不会考虑的策略——从这一点似乎可以折射出投资者是时不时地讨厌现金，这真是一件很有趣的事。这也难怪，对于他们而言，没有完全动用所有的现金，似乎就赚不到钱，因此应该将现金充分利用，使之最大化。还有他们过于看重相对表现，也就是回报与市场相比如何，这也是不能保持现金的重要原因。为了在某一个上涨的市场中避免表现不好，许多职业投资者甚至制定保持满仓的强制指令。
与大多数投资者相反，卡拉曼一直认为成功的投资要求必须认识到，持有现金是什么都不做直至极富吸引力的投资机会出现的安全投资之道。它提供了虽然很有限但是正的收益率、本金的彻底安全以及完全即时的流动性。一定要深刻认识到，在没有更好的投资选择的情况下，微小的正回报率并且几乎不存在风险的现金并不是一个一个很糟糕的投资对象。卡拉曼的看法是，没有极富吸引力的投资选择，投资者就应该持有现金，这不是因为他们做了一个由上而下的资产配置决策决定持有现金，而是基于从下而上寻找廉价投资得出的结果。包普斯特都是在最好的机会出手，否则就持有现金，即便现金占投资合伙企业资产的比重已经很高。
当卡拉曼的包普斯特基金投资时，都要将每一个投资和现金进行比较。如果一笔投资优于现金的程度足够高——该投资提供的回报高于适当的风险，那么这笔投资可以做。值得注意的是，做出这笔投资并不是因为现金不好，而是因为这笔投资很好。出于其他任何理由放弃现金都是危险的想法，并将大幅提高风险水平。
巴菲特也有类似的看法观点，虽然他曾说最差的投资就是持有现金。然而对于自己持有足够的现金，巴菲特解释说，这能让他不会在睡觉的时候感到担忧。但这并不意味着他喜欢将现金作为一种投资。“长期内现金是无利可图的投资。但你总要有足够的现金，以避免别人可以决定你的未来。”这几乎就是现金管理的意义所在。
不过，对于价值投资者而言，知道在没有更好的投资机会的情况下应该持有现金是一回事，真正将这种想法付诸实施则是另一回事。当许多人因为投机而大赚特赚的时候，你很难无动于衷。卡拉曼发现推动一个人投机的不是投机的诱惑，而是一个人想做什么的愿望。但是，什么都不做也是一种策略：什么都不做意味着寻找潜在的投资并排除掉那些不能满足你的投资标准。但是从情感角度来说，什么都不做看起来就像无事可做，这会让人觉得不舒服、没有作为、没有想象力、没有激情，并且可能在一段时间内的投资落后与大市。这就是人类一种奇怪的心理状态。
然而，也就是在这时候，或许才能真正知道特立独行是一种什么样的感觉，特别是当持有大量现金的时候。因此没有什么人能够这么做，当然巴菲特这样做了，卡拉曼也这样做了，不过肯定只有很少的人能够理解为什么会有人这么做。而且，相信未来将出现比目前更好的投资机会并不能保证未来真的出现更好的机会。谁知道明天的投资者
会愿不愿意为证券付出更高的价格呢？与为今天的证券支付更高的价格相比，等待未来出现廉价投资这一策略可能更好。不过，明天的估值水平可能会更高。另外，脱离满仓的大众很长一段时间是一个紧张、羞辱和消沉的体验,这几乎就是心理层面的东西了。
卡拉曼指出，许多投资者总是将现金可怜的当前收益率和股票收益率进行比较，而在比较中现金总是落败。因此，他们不管这些投资选择的绝对估值可能处于多么离谱的水平。如此看来，对于许多投资者而言，最紧迫的问题是他们的投资视距太短。关于投资，一个最大的问题是今天可以获得的投资机会并不是你应该考虑的投资机会的全部。仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象如同在你高中的班级选择配偶一样地狭隘。卡拉曼说，准确预测未来投资机会的数量和吸引力很难，或许是不可能的，但是忽略它们不存在就愚蠢了。永远不要仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象。
虽然沃伦·巴菲特曾说现金是垃圾，但卡拉曼深知，有时候现金就是最好的投资。以日本市场为例，由于日本隔夜储蓄市场的利率几乎为零，因此许多投资者从该市场退出并在其他地方寻找投资。2003年6月，他们接受了年收益率仅为0.44%的10年期债券。到了10月，这一债券价格从高于面值跌至面值的90%以下——使得收益率超过1.5%。于是投资者在这4个月中赔的钱是他们持有这一荒唐定价的债券整整10年获得的总回报的两倍还多。
现金就是最好的投资，不过，这一点却常常被投资者所忽略，其中也包括我个人在内。如果说许多投资者认为在市场下跌时持有现金尚且是难以容忍的，那么在市场上涨时持有现金更是考虑都不会考虑的策略——从这一点似乎可以折射出投资者是时不时地讨厌现金，这真是一件很有趣的事。这也难怪，对于他们而言，没有完全动用所有的现金，似乎就赚不到钱，因此应该将现金充分利用，使之最大化。还有他们过于看重相对表现，也就是回报与市场相比如何，这也是不能保持现金的重要原因。为了在某一个上涨的市场中避免表现不好，许多职业投资者甚至制定保持满仓的强制指令。
与大多数投资者相反，卡拉曼一直认为成功的投资要求必须认识到，持有现金是什么都不做直至极富吸引力的投资机会出现的安全投资之道。它提供了虽然很有限但是正的收益率、本金的彻底安全以及完全即时的流动性。一定要深刻认识到，在没有更好的投资选择的情况下，微小的正回报率并且几乎不存在风险的现金并不是一个一个很糟糕的投资对象。卡拉曼的看法是，没有极富吸引力的投资选择，投资者就应该持有现金，这不是因为他们做了一个由上而下的资产配置决策决定持有现金，而是基于从下而上寻找廉价投资得出的结果。包普斯特都是在最好的机会出手，否则就持有现金，即便现金占投资合伙企业资产的比重已经很高。
当卡拉曼的包普斯特基金投资时，都要将每一个投资和现金进行比较。如果一笔投资优于现金的程度足够高——该投资提供的回报高于适当的风险，那么这笔投资可以做。值得注意的是，做出这笔投资并不是因为现金不好，而是因为这笔投资很好。出于其他任何理由放弃现金都是危险的想法，并将大幅提高风险水平。
巴菲特也有类似的看法观点，虽然他曾说最差的投资就是持有现金。然而对于自己持有足够的现金，巴菲特解释说，这能让他不会在睡觉的时候感到担忧。但这并不意味着他喜欢将现金作为一种投资。“长期内现金是无利可图的投资。但你总要有足够的现金，以避免别人可以决定你的未来。”这几乎就是现金管理的意义所在。
不过，对于价值投资者而言，知道在没有更好的投资机会的情况下应该持有现金是一回事，真正将这种想法付诸实施则是另一回事。当许多人因为投机而大赚特赚的时候，你很难无动于衷。卡拉曼发现推动一个人投机的不是投机的诱惑，而是一个人想做什么的愿望。但是，什么都不做也是一种策略：什么都不做意味着寻找潜在的投资并排除掉那些不能满足你的投资标准。但是从情感角度来说，什么都不做看起来就像无事可做，这会让人觉得不舒服、没有作为、没有想象力、没有激情，并且可能在一段时间内的投资落后与大市。这就是人类一种奇怪的心理状态。
然而，也就是在这时候，或许才能真正知道特立独行是一种什么样的感觉，特别是当持有大量现金的时候。因此没有什么人能够这么做，当然巴菲特这样做了，卡拉曼也这样做了，不过肯定只有很少的人能够理解为什么会有人这么做。而且，相信未来将出现比目前更好的投资机会并不能保证未来真的出现更好的机会。谁知道明天的投资者
会愿不愿意为证券付出更高的价格呢？与为今天的证券支付更高的价格相比，等待未来出现廉价投资这一策略可能更好。不过，明天的估值水平可能会更高。另外，脱离满仓的大众很长一段时间是一个紧张、羞辱和消沉的体验,这几乎就是心理层面的东西了。
卡拉曼指出，许多投资者总是将现金可怜的当前收益率和股票收益率进行比较，而在比较中现金总是落败。因此，他们不管这些投资选择的绝对估值可能处于多么离谱的水平。如此看来，对于许多投资者而言，最紧迫的问题是他们的投资视距太短。关于投资，一个最大的问题是今天可以获得的投资机会并不是你应该考虑的投资机会的全部。仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象如同在你高中的班级选择配偶一样地狭隘。卡拉曼说，准确预测未来投资机会的数量和吸引力很难，或许是不可能的，但是忽略它们不存在就愚蠢了。永远不要仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象。
控房价、抑物价必使股市上涨
交换、购买是工业社会的核心，股市是经济的晴雨表，经济增长加快，股市上涨；经济衰退，股市下跌，这是工业社会人们早已熟悉的真理。商业社会是投资为主的时代，价值、投资是商业社会的核心，人们在商业社会始终都在寻找投资的对象，能够带来价值的商品是人们在工业社会后期形成的大量货币投资的标的物。
工业社会投资的品种比较单一，它是以发展经济为主的时代，所以投资品种基本就是股市，进入商业社会，发生了深刻的变化，人们的投资品种非常丰富，主要的投资是房地产投资，它能够带来社会价值（即社会支持），获得名誉。还有农副产品在工业社会的二元经济结构下，长期被低估，部分资金进入农副产品市场进行投资，获得人际价值。因此出现了人们担心的通货膨胀（物价全面上涨过快）和加速上涨的房价泡沫，也就出现了今天的控房价、抑物价。
按照人们学习的经济学理论，在提高存款准备金和加息的压力下，股市肯定是下跌的，也是不利于经济的发展（货币收紧）。但是从价值营销理论的分析中，正好得出相反的结论，控房价和抑物价，运用跳跃思维使所有投资的资金进入股市进行有价证券的投资，控房价和抑物价的政策越来越严厉，股市上涨的资金就会越来越宽裕，必将促使股市迅速上涨，在商业社会根本不用担心资金面（基本面）适当收紧给股市带来多大的影响，相反它只能证明政府抑制通胀的决心和能力，并非针对经济发展采取的政策取向。
工业社会投资的品种比较单一，它是以发展经济为主的时代，所以投资品种基本就是股市，进入商业社会，发生了深刻的变化，人们的投资品种非常丰富，主要的投资是房地产投资，它能够带来社会价值（即社会支持），获得名誉。还有农副产品在工业社会的二元经济结构下，长期被低估，部分资金进入农副产品市场进行投资，获得人际价值。因此出现了人们担心的通货膨胀（物价全面上涨过快）和加速上涨的房价泡沫，也就出现了今天的控房价、抑物价。
按照人们学习的经济学理论，在提高存款准备金和加息的压力下，股市肯定是下跌的，也是不利于经济的发展（货币收紧）。但是从价值营销理论的分析中，正好得出相反的结论，控房价和抑物价，运用跳跃思维使所有投资的资金进入股市进行有价证券的投资，控房价和抑物价的政策越来越严厉，股市上涨的资金就会越来越宽裕，必将促使股市迅速上涨，在商业社会根本不用担心资金面（基本面）适当收紧给股市带来多大的影响，相反它只能证明政府抑制通胀的决心和能力，并非针对经济发展采取的政策取向。
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