8月27日，周三。恒生指數升408.06，收21464.72；成交609.8億元。8月期指升325點，收21411點；9月期指升350點，收21363點，期指倒掛現象又再出現。江銅（358）升9.5%，因上半年獲利增加32%；中移動（941）升3.5%，因半年獲利上升44.7%；中國遠洋（1919）升8.2%，因半年純利升一倍；中鋁（2600）升6.3%，因澳洲力拓公司與中鋁母公司組成公司；大昌行（1828）升8.4%，因半年獲利升38%；中化化肥（297）升6.4%，因半年獲利升一倍。
花旗推介江銅，估計今年每股獲利1.708元，升21.7%，P/E五點九倍，目標價24.1元。
人行夥銀監落指令
今年有唔少人估信貸壓碎（credit crunch）嘅結束點，甚至反彈點，而佢地忘記咗淡市莫估底嘅教訓，因此愈買愈低、愈低愈買，結果損失慘重。有讀者打電話嚟問反彈同當頭起有咩分別？一、當頭起升幅最少20%；二、一浪高於一浪（即喺次低點才入市）；三、50天移動平均線重返250天線之上；四、當頭起喺熊三出現後先出現（熊三P/E喺八至十二倍之間）。
利用上述幾點分析依家嘅形勢仍係熊二（因恒指P/E喺十二倍之上），理論上只有反彈而冇上升。客觀形勢係美國房地產狀況喺度轉壞緊。去年係防危機年，今年係小心謹慎年。
今年5月開始嘅熊市二期，家吓仲睇唔到盡頭，剔除港股直通車影響，我地只係返番去消息公布前嘅20000點水平；今年8月前景展望肯定較去年8月差，驚恒指20000點遲早失守。
我老曹唔信美國樓價復甦前美股可出現牛市，港股有40%受美股影響，即係呢方面唔使諗，另外40%係受中國因素影響，中國GDP正進入增長放緩期；剩番20%先係本地因素。
如9月恒指再唔大升，恐怕第四季恒指20000點將失守。
新加坡淡馬錫基金宣布進一步增持美林到13%至14%（去年12月24日共吸納9.4%美林，其後美林股價跌55%，最近宣布再增持）。淡馬錫同時係渣打（2888）及新加坡星展銀行最大股東，亦係栢克萊銀行、印度ICICI銀行，以及印尼、南韓和巴基斯坦等地區銀行小股東，淡馬錫投資組合中40%係銀行股。
繼國務院指示「救經濟唔救股市」後，央行同銀監會聯合下發〈關於金融促進節約集約用地通知〉，要求各金融機構嚴格商業性房地產信貸管理。各大商業銀行已接此通知並對房產信貸作緊急調整，禁止向房地產開發企業發放專門用於繳交土地出讓價款嘅貸款。銀行唔可以籌借資金買地；禁止銀行參與房企購地而增加銀行連帶風險；嚴格限制農村集體建設用地項目貸款管理；對利用農村集體土地開發商業性房地產，唔可以發放任何形式貸款；對購買農村集體土地上建設住房城鎮居民，唔可以發放住房貸款。
招商銀行研究發展中心研究董事王瓊表示：「該通知說明政府要求銀行收縮房貸資金，對房地產市場嚟講，肯定係壞消息。政府政策係保證銀行免受地產下跌影響，而犧牲房地產！」
中國人唔好自大
呢次北京奧運令全球中國人都感到自豪！一吐自鴉片戰爭以嚟中國人受列強侵略時嘅忍氣吞聲。呢次奧運盛況未必絕後但肯定係空前；作為中國人自豪無妨，但千祈唔好自大，過去中國人被人地睇唔起，變成家吓中國人睇唔起人地！
末日博士麥嘉華近期分析能力唔錯；去年10月股市回落後，佢估計原材料價格今年下半年起回落，理由係全球流動性收緊，依家已證明佢嘅分析係啱。本周一佢再估計唔少商品價格跌幅約50％，部分跌幅家吓已超過50％，但商品牛市未死，經大幅下調後牛市持續。近日調整只係1980至99年或2001年商品熊市結束後出現七年牛市嘅中期性調整，估計明年起再上升。
Mohamed El-Erian之前協助管理哈佛大學350億美元捐贈基金，去年上升23％（賺咗57億美元）。今年佢專心寫When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change，呢本書主張喺新興市場股票投資最多唔超過總資本10％、其他OECD國家15％、美股15％（新興市場股票必須喺美國掛牌，代表該公司會計制度被一般性接納。P/E更要較過去五年P/E G為低，以免過度高估）。佢今年對新興市場股市睇得幾淡。
反而對地產及商品睇得幾好，佢認為最少應各佔總投資25％。
滬深三百指數跌0.27％，收2325.29。喺下跌過程中能量有所放大，令人擔心2284點低位又再失守，令跌幅擴大；小心黎明前嘅黑暗先係最黑暗。
標普／Case-Shiller指數代表美國二十個大城市房價今年第二季下跌15.4％。另一份OFHEO（Office Of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight）報告顯示樓價過去一年只跌5％，第二季只較第一季下跌1.4％。
非地產公司鳴金收兵
美元因德國商業信心指數回落而上升。高盛報告認為，政府注資可挽救房利美及房貸美令美滙指數見77.5，如再升少少（例如78點），便可確認美元轉弱為強。7月15日至家吓美元兌歐羅升8％、兌英鎊升9％及兌日圓升5％。自2005年起人民幣兌美元升值，去年7月16日見頂；短短一個月人民幣滙率回落近300個基點，見6.84元兌1美元。今年6月中國外滙儲備增加咗119億美元，當月貿易順差213.5億美元及直接投資資金96.1億美元，即6月份出現190.6億美元資金淨流出，係中國資本流動首次為負數，為新近出爐嘅熱錢係咪正選擇流出中國？提供咗有力嘅證據。人行副行長蘇寧喺接受最新一期《中國金融》雜誌專訪時亦明確指出，外滙資金大量流入，導致外滙存款大幅上升，不但加劇流動性過剩矛盾，亦加大通貨膨脹及資產價格上升壓力，唔排除未來可能出現集中流出而衝擊經濟嘅風險。從蘇寧嘅講話，市場普遍理解為決策層已高度關注熱錢開始流出所帶嚟嘅風險。
由8月8日奧運開幕起計，內地AB股雙雙直線下挫；出現連續五天淨賣出八億股A股，B股跌幅更達16.6％。業內人士認為，8月外資正加速退出中國股市。過去熱錢大規模流入，隨住內地股市及樓市逐步冷卻，熱錢正逐步撤離呢兩大市場，轉而存入銀行賬戶，賺取升值收益。一旦人民幣升幅放緩甚至停止升值，呢D所謂熱錢就好快咁離開中國。
人民幣持續兩年多以嚟升值，加上滬深股市兩年牛市，內地房價走高，2005及06年流入熱錢已有相當豐厚嘅賬面利潤，面對趨勢判斷出現分歧嘅今年，選擇離開中國係一個明智選擇。一位外資銀行界人士亦表示，外資喺中國嘅投資利潤早已超過咗預期，係時候撤退矣。
從外滙賬上今年6月起已出現負增長，代表國際熱錢自今年6月開始由中國境內撤退！7月中旬人民幣兌美元更進入下跌通道，進一步證明外資離開中國。8月8日起連續多天AB股回落，代表8月份熱錢撤離速度喺度加快。不過，亦有利好一面，就係有利出口，幫助中小出口企業擺脫困境及令中國通脹率加快回落。
內地樓價一再下跌，成交量日益萎縮，若干份由地產行業協會組織撰寫嘅建議書亦被送達國務院。一位國家發改委官員最近向媒體表示，中央調子已經定下嚟，要保持經濟穩定增長，同時繼續採取緊縮政策。因此單獨對房地產領域鬆綁，至少依家唔符合中央整體思路。
過去上市公司熱衷進軍房地產，隨着房地產市場景氣下滑，一D公司開始將資金撤離房地產，例如五洲明珠宣布轉讓2006年設立嘅濰坊五洲明珠房地產有限公司股權；6月份中遠股份公司亦宣布將持有三家房地產公司嘅51％股權轉讓。天相投顧地產行業分析師周炯認為，今年製造業資本退出地產現象愈嚟愈多。過去有三百多家上市製造業公司涉足房地產，今年嚟唔少喺度撤資。五洲明珠表示，如果公司地產項目繼續開發下去，至少仲要1億元資金，家吓將其轉讓不但日後唔使繼續投入，仲可以攞番一D資金去投資主業。
據了解，大多數涉足房地產嘅製造業企業係中小規模，難與實力規模相對較大嘅上市房企相比，形成融資難度大。唔少資金來回拆借，一旦房地產業務出咗問題，上市公司成個資金鏈就發生斷裂。加上地產業務下滑亦令公司業績出現大滑坡影響咗股價，例如紅豆股份本業係紡織服務，去年上半年嚟自房地產業務收入1.87億元，佔總收入27％；今年上半年嚟自房地產業務收入跌到5549.83萬元，令公司業績好難睇。若房地產市場景氣繼續下滑，將有更多非房地產上市公司撤軍。中國監管機構周一宣布更改國家保險條例，准許保險公司投資房地產。
明年商品價再升
鎳價今年跌咗30％，去年年中至依家跌咗60％已令鎳礦無錢賺。世界經濟進入增長放緩期。受美國次按危機影響，歐洲、英國同日本齊齊出現GDP增長率放緩或負增長，估計可令油價短期回落。雖然係咁，由2001年起廉價石油時代已結束，2004年廉價資金時代亦結束；由1971年美元同黃金脫鈎開始，因貨幣供應上升及信貸大幅增長，令全球資產價格大升期宣布結束。呢個泡沫長達三十五年，帶嚟Anglo-Saxon地區房地產狂潮。呢個狂潮自去年8月次按危機出現而正式結束，美國、歐洲及英國家庭開始勒緊褲頭過日子及減債；好似1990年後日本或1997年第三季起嘅香港人。全球進入一段低GDP增長期及OECD國家資產減值期。
以金價去劃道指，可見道指由1980年起步到2000年見頂，即上升四十倍後回落！商品股超級牛市喺2000年開始，ASX200 Resources Index 喺今年5月見頂，至今跌幅達25％，情況有D似2006年5至9月跌幅達24％或去年7及8月跌幅達19％。回落相信係受次按危機影響，令全球GDP增長率放緩（2006年5至9月嗰次係受制於美元利率見5.25厘），尤其係中國GDP增長率由去年高峰期11％逐步跌到只得8％，對商品價格產生一定壓抑作用。估計明年首季開始，商品價格又再止跌回升；反之，美股回落期相信只完成一半，估計喺明年年中前改變唔到方向。美股熊市喺2000年已開始，透過減息喺2003年再回升；去年10月以指數計見新高，如扣除美元購買力，高位仲唔及2000年；情況有D似1966至82年，美股牛市由1982至2000年長達十八年；調整九至十二年係好正常嘅事。從信貸周期睇，儲蓄率要回升到佔收入8％，美股先見底（今年第二季儲蓄率佔收入2.6％）。
2006年美國證券公司透過銀行發行大量浮息票據（floating-rate notes）作為購買股票之用。摩通分析員Alex Roever估計，明年年底前到期票據共7870億美元，較過去十六個月到期者多出43％。只係9月到期已達950億美元，代表證券公司要大量拋售證券還錢。
Thursday, August 28, 2008
10 Things Your Bank Won't Tell You
1. "Our branches are there to sell you, not serve you."
In the late 1990s bank branches were considered outmoded relics soon to be replaced by ATMs and Internet banking. But just the opposite happened: In 1998 there were 89,000 bank branches in the U.S.; by 2007 there were 97,000. Why? The industry realized consumer banking was profitable and that despite the predictions of Silicon Valley wonks, the main criterion consumers use in choosing a bank is proximity, says SNL Financial analyst Jennifer Payne.
But branches aren't just about convenience; they're a bank's primary sales floor. Brochures for services as varied as retirement accounts and home loans are on display, and everyone from the teller on up is trained to make a sale. That's because in the current low-interest-rate climate, it's harder to generate revenue from interest alone. Many players in the industry have been trying to boost fee- and service-based income, so if a teller sees you have a mortgage, he might suggest you meet with a loan officer to discuss a home-equity loan. Says Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, "The more products a customer has with a bank, the more likely he is to stay with that bank."
2. "Our fees will only go up."
With the economy slowing and big losses looming in the mortgage market, banks are looking for reliable revenue streams. Hence punitive fees — for overdrawing your account, say, or using a competitor's ATM — are increasing. The average ATM service charge doubled between 1998 and 2007, and overdraft fees brought in $17.5 billion in revenue in 2006, up from $10.3 billion in 2004, according to the Center for Responsible Lending. Rubecca Hegarty, a married mother of three in Woodridge, Ill., says she often pays upwards of $100 a month in overdraft fees to Chase, since, like most banks, it changes the order of purchases so that large debts get paid first — increasing the likelihood of incurring fees on smaller purchases. JPMorgan Chase says it does this because big payments like a mortgage are more important to consumers, so they get priority.
Revenue from penalties can be addictive for banks, says Harvard Business School Professor Gail McGovern, but "they're going to face problems from angry customers, which leads to big call-center bills, employee dissatisfaction and turnover."
3. "We change our interest rates all the time."
Regardless of what your credit card agreement says, you can never be sure how much interest banks will charge you. For example, nearly all cards have a default rate — as high as 30 percent — which banks apply when you've done something wrong, usually after two late payments in 12 months. But some banks have cut that to one, says Curtis Arnold, founder of CardRatings.com.
Banks can also change the terms of your agreement, raising rates when they like (though you can opt out and pay off the balance at the old rate as long as you never use the card again). Bank of America did that recently, upping many cardholders' rates from 10 or 12 percent to 27 percent or more, even though they'd done nothing wrong. "There's no clarity on what criteria can lead a bank to raise interest rates," says Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at the Rochester Institute of Technology. "It's a black box." A Bank of America spokesperson says the company periodically reviews the credit risk of its accounts and adjusts rates accordingly, adding that in the past year 94 percent have had no increase.
4. "College campuses are a gold mine for us."
Students are the customers of the future, and banks are increasingly courting them, sometimes right on campus. More than 120 universities have cut deals with banks to issue student-ID cards that are also ATM and check cards. Schools can make millions from these deals, sometimes even taking a small cut of individual purchases.
For more SmartMoney Magazine features, turn to the August issue.
Students are also a hot market for credit card issuers; banks will make private deals with alumni associations to get contact info for students, parents and even ticket buyers to university athletic events. Card companies cut deals to set up booths on campus, and Chase even inked a deal with Facebook to display ads and set up a Chase group on its Web site.
The problem? Mounting credit card debt among college kids, for one. "Universities don't negotiate on behalf of students," says Manning. "They're negotiating the best deal for the university." A spokesperson for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities says don't blame schools — banks would market to students anyway, and universities at least try to get the best rates they can for students.
5. "In debt? The courts won't help."
Since the late 1990s banks have been including mandatory arbitration agreements in their contracts for many of their products, including auto loans, checking accounts, home-equity loans and credit cards. Such agreements prohibit you from suing and instead require you to use an arbitrator — someone picked by the arbitration firm named in your credit card contract to hear the dispute and decide the outcome.
While these clauses were originally designed to thwart class-action suits, the banks have also been using them for debt collection, says Paul Bland, anattorney with consumer-advocacy group Public Justice. There are even times when consumers, often victims of identity theft and unaware of the debt, aren't present when awards are handed down against them.
A recent suit against an arbitration firm brought by the San Francisco city attorney noted that arbitrators ruled in favor of banks in 100 percent of the 18,045 California cases brought against consumers from January 2003 through March 2007. "From the consumer perspective, it's a nightmare," says Bland. If a bank brings arbitration against you, hire a lawyer and request a hearing — in person.
6. "We're excited about your trip to Europe too!"
It's not bad enough that the dollar is hovering near historic lows against most major currencies, but when you travel overseas, every transaction comes with big fees attached. Take out cash from an ATM in London and you'll get hit with a foreign-transaction fee, plus a fee for using a competitor's ATM. All told, it can cost up to $7 just to withdraw $200. Credit card purchases aren't much better. Visa and MasterCard charge 1 percent of the purchase for converting currency. And the issuing banks may take another cut, which can bring the total to 3 percent of your purchase price, says CardRatings.com's Arnold. "If people don't travel overseas very often, they just don't think about it," he says.
The best thing to do is see which of your cards charges the lowest overseas-transaction fee. If you travel a lot, Arnold recommends a Capital One credit card, which charges no overseas-transaction fees (even refusing to pass on Visa and MasterCard's 1 percent fee to customers). Also, ask your bank about partnerships with foreign banks. Bank of America, for example, partners with Barclays Bank, saving its customers $5 per withdrawal from the latter's ATMs in the U.K.
7. "For all the fine print, we don't disclose very much."
Bank documents come loaded with small type, detailing terms and conditions. But good luck finding out exactly what you're signing up for when you open an account. Last year the Government Accountability Office sent investigators to see how well banks explained their fees and other conditions to potential customers. Though banks are required by law to make this information available, the GAO found that one-third of the branches it surveyed didn't provide the required information. Worse, more than half didn't have any fee info on their Web sites.
Nessa Feddis, senior counsel at the American Bankers Association, questions the report's methodology — banks failed the test if investigators waited more than 10 minutes for the information — and defends the lack of data online. Banks are afraid of leaving old, inaccurate info on their site if terms change, she says. But without details on fees, consumers can't make informed choices. "Banks are not complying with the law," says Ed Mierzwinski, consumer program director with the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. "People need more information so they can shop around for the best deal."
8. "Your money might be better off elsewhere."
Banks offer lots of ways to earn interest on your money — among them, simple savings, CDs, money-market accounts and IRAs. But they don't always yield the best return. The average savings account, for example, pays about 0.5 percent interest. But even in this low-interest-rate climate, you can do better — 3 percent or more — if you shop around. "It pays to be a free agent," says Bankrate .com's McBride. "There is tremendous disparity in the returns available."
Banks have been expanding into other financial services for a decade or more, including comprehensive wealth management and financial planning, brokerage services, even insurance. The well-off customers who use these are a bank's most profitable; they keep the highest balances and are less sensitive to fees, says Maryann Johnson, senior vice president of wealth market management at the ABA. That's something to remember when you talk to a bank's investment advisers: Many are paid a commission on investment products, says Certified Financial Planner Craig DuVarney, meaning they often go for the easy sale. "They don't have the harder discussion about estate planning, tax bracket and liquidity," says DuVarney. Johnson sees it differently; she says banks take a more holistic approach and that their wealth managers serve much the same purpose as financial advisers, with bonuses for not only sales but also dollars invested, new clients, and even customer retention.
9. "When it comes to banks, smaller is sometimes better."
Banks have been consolidating like crazy over the past decade. In 1990 the top 10 banks controlled 25 percent of the market; now they have half. This gives customers of large banks vast networks of free ATMs and branches across the country. But it hasn't been entirely good for consumers, says Arthur E. Wilmarth Jr., a professor at George Washington University Law School. Though big banks offer many conveniences, they can come at a price: high fees. In 2006 the 10 largest banks generated 54 percent of revenue from fees and service charges; by contrast the 10 smallest banks generated just 28 percent from those sources.
Not only do big banks bring in more fee income, but they also pay outless interest. According to FDIC data, smaller banks generally pay higher interest on savings accounts and other products. For example, in 2006 the 10 largest banks paid an average 1.87 percent in interest for savings accounts, while the smallest banks paid 4.37 percent. "The largest banks are no longer worried about being undercut on price," Wilmarth says.
10. "Your online account info isn't necessarily accurate."
Online banking has changed the way people handle their finances. They can pay bills online, transfer funds, track payments and get a more detailed view of their bank account than ever before. Unfortunately, it may not always show the proper balance. With electronic transactions, ATMs, check cards and direct deposits, banking has gotten more complicated. ATMs and online bank statements will show deposits available before the money is actually in your account. Using your debit card at a gas station or to reserve a hotel room, for example, can put a hold on funds. Some merchants may be slow to send in charges. And banks can sit on deposits — an out-of-state check may take up to five days to clear. Add to that the constant reordering of debits and your account balance can quickly become a moving target — hard to track accurately day to day. "Banks use different algorithms to process payments than what you see online," says Harvard's McGovern. "It gives you a false sense of security."
In the late 1990s bank branches were considered outmoded relics soon to be replaced by ATMs and Internet banking. But just the opposite happened: In 1998 there were 89,000 bank branches in the U.S.; by 2007 there were 97,000. Why? The industry realized consumer banking was profitable and that despite the predictions of Silicon Valley wonks, the main criterion consumers use in choosing a bank is proximity, says SNL Financial analyst Jennifer Payne.
But branches aren't just about convenience; they're a bank's primary sales floor. Brochures for services as varied as retirement accounts and home loans are on display, and everyone from the teller on up is trained to make a sale. That's because in the current low-interest-rate climate, it's harder to generate revenue from interest alone. Many players in the industry have been trying to boost fee- and service-based income, so if a teller sees you have a mortgage, he might suggest you meet with a loan officer to discuss a home-equity loan. Says Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, "The more products a customer has with a bank, the more likely he is to stay with that bank."
2. "Our fees will only go up."
With the economy slowing and big losses looming in the mortgage market, banks are looking for reliable revenue streams. Hence punitive fees — for overdrawing your account, say, or using a competitor's ATM — are increasing. The average ATM service charge doubled between 1998 and 2007, and overdraft fees brought in $17.5 billion in revenue in 2006, up from $10.3 billion in 2004, according to the Center for Responsible Lending. Rubecca Hegarty, a married mother of three in Woodridge, Ill., says she often pays upwards of $100 a month in overdraft fees to Chase, since, like most banks, it changes the order of purchases so that large debts get paid first — increasing the likelihood of incurring fees on smaller purchases. JPMorgan Chase says it does this because big payments like a mortgage are more important to consumers, so they get priority.
Revenue from penalties can be addictive for banks, says Harvard Business School Professor Gail McGovern, but "they're going to face problems from angry customers, which leads to big call-center bills, employee dissatisfaction and turnover."
3. "We change our interest rates all the time."
Regardless of what your credit card agreement says, you can never be sure how much interest banks will charge you. For example, nearly all cards have a default rate — as high as 30 percent — which banks apply when you've done something wrong, usually after two late payments in 12 months. But some banks have cut that to one, says Curtis Arnold, founder of CardRatings.com.
Banks can also change the terms of your agreement, raising rates when they like (though you can opt out and pay off the balance at the old rate as long as you never use the card again). Bank of America did that recently, upping many cardholders' rates from 10 or 12 percent to 27 percent or more, even though they'd done nothing wrong. "There's no clarity on what criteria can lead a bank to raise interest rates," says Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at the Rochester Institute of Technology. "It's a black box." A Bank of America spokesperson says the company periodically reviews the credit risk of its accounts and adjusts rates accordingly, adding that in the past year 94 percent have had no increase.
4. "College campuses are a gold mine for us."
Students are the customers of the future, and banks are increasingly courting them, sometimes right on campus. More than 120 universities have cut deals with banks to issue student-ID cards that are also ATM and check cards. Schools can make millions from these deals, sometimes even taking a small cut of individual purchases.
For more SmartMoney Magazine features, turn to the August issue.
Students are also a hot market for credit card issuers; banks will make private deals with alumni associations to get contact info for students, parents and even ticket buyers to university athletic events. Card companies cut deals to set up booths on campus, and Chase even inked a deal with Facebook to display ads and set up a Chase group on its Web site.
The problem? Mounting credit card debt among college kids, for one. "Universities don't negotiate on behalf of students," says Manning. "They're negotiating the best deal for the university." A spokesperson for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities says don't blame schools — banks would market to students anyway, and universities at least try to get the best rates they can for students.
5. "In debt? The courts won't help."
Since the late 1990s banks have been including mandatory arbitration agreements in their contracts for many of their products, including auto loans, checking accounts, home-equity loans and credit cards. Such agreements prohibit you from suing and instead require you to use an arbitrator — someone picked by the arbitration firm named in your credit card contract to hear the dispute and decide the outcome.
While these clauses were originally designed to thwart class-action suits, the banks have also been using them for debt collection, says Paul Bland, anattorney with consumer-advocacy group Public Justice. There are even times when consumers, often victims of identity theft and unaware of the debt, aren't present when awards are handed down against them.
A recent suit against an arbitration firm brought by the San Francisco city attorney noted that arbitrators ruled in favor of banks in 100 percent of the 18,045 California cases brought against consumers from January 2003 through March 2007. "From the consumer perspective, it's a nightmare," says Bland. If a bank brings arbitration against you, hire a lawyer and request a hearing — in person.
6. "We're excited about your trip to Europe too!"
It's not bad enough that the dollar is hovering near historic lows against most major currencies, but when you travel overseas, every transaction comes with big fees attached. Take out cash from an ATM in London and you'll get hit with a foreign-transaction fee, plus a fee for using a competitor's ATM. All told, it can cost up to $7 just to withdraw $200. Credit card purchases aren't much better. Visa and MasterCard charge 1 percent of the purchase for converting currency. And the issuing banks may take another cut, which can bring the total to 3 percent of your purchase price, says CardRatings.com's Arnold. "If people don't travel overseas very often, they just don't think about it," he says.
The best thing to do is see which of your cards charges the lowest overseas-transaction fee. If you travel a lot, Arnold recommends a Capital One credit card, which charges no overseas-transaction fees (even refusing to pass on Visa and MasterCard's 1 percent fee to customers). Also, ask your bank about partnerships with foreign banks. Bank of America, for example, partners with Barclays Bank, saving its customers $5 per withdrawal from the latter's ATMs in the U.K.
7. "For all the fine print, we don't disclose very much."
Bank documents come loaded with small type, detailing terms and conditions. But good luck finding out exactly what you're signing up for when you open an account. Last year the Government Accountability Office sent investigators to see how well banks explained their fees and other conditions to potential customers. Though banks are required by law to make this information available, the GAO found that one-third of the branches it surveyed didn't provide the required information. Worse, more than half didn't have any fee info on their Web sites.
Nessa Feddis, senior counsel at the American Bankers Association, questions the report's methodology — banks failed the test if investigators waited more than 10 minutes for the information — and defends the lack of data online. Banks are afraid of leaving old, inaccurate info on their site if terms change, she says. But without details on fees, consumers can't make informed choices. "Banks are not complying with the law," says Ed Mierzwinski, consumer program director with the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. "People need more information so they can shop around for the best deal."
8. "Your money might be better off elsewhere."
Banks offer lots of ways to earn interest on your money — among them, simple savings, CDs, money-market accounts and IRAs. But they don't always yield the best return. The average savings account, for example, pays about 0.5 percent interest. But even in this low-interest-rate climate, you can do better — 3 percent or more — if you shop around. "It pays to be a free agent," says Bankrate .com's McBride. "There is tremendous disparity in the returns available."
Banks have been expanding into other financial services for a decade or more, including comprehensive wealth management and financial planning, brokerage services, even insurance. The well-off customers who use these are a bank's most profitable; they keep the highest balances and are less sensitive to fees, says Maryann Johnson, senior vice president of wealth market management at the ABA. That's something to remember when you talk to a bank's investment advisers: Many are paid a commission on investment products, says Certified Financial Planner Craig DuVarney, meaning they often go for the easy sale. "They don't have the harder discussion about estate planning, tax bracket and liquidity," says DuVarney. Johnson sees it differently; she says banks take a more holistic approach and that their wealth managers serve much the same purpose as financial advisers, with bonuses for not only sales but also dollars invested, new clients, and even customer retention.
9. "When it comes to banks, smaller is sometimes better."
Banks have been consolidating like crazy over the past decade. In 1990 the top 10 banks controlled 25 percent of the market; now they have half. This gives customers of large banks vast networks of free ATMs and branches across the country. But it hasn't been entirely good for consumers, says Arthur E. Wilmarth Jr., a professor at George Washington University Law School. Though big banks offer many conveniences, they can come at a price: high fees. In 2006 the 10 largest banks generated 54 percent of revenue from fees and service charges; by contrast the 10 smallest banks generated just 28 percent from those sources.
Not only do big banks bring in more fee income, but they also pay outless interest. According to FDIC data, smaller banks generally pay higher interest on savings accounts and other products. For example, in 2006 the 10 largest banks paid an average 1.87 percent in interest for savings accounts, while the smallest banks paid 4.37 percent. "The largest banks are no longer worried about being undercut on price," Wilmarth says.
10. "Your online account info isn't necessarily accurate."
Online banking has changed the way people handle their finances. They can pay bills online, transfer funds, track payments and get a more detailed view of their bank account than ever before. Unfortunately, it may not always show the proper balance. With electronic transactions, ATMs, check cards and direct deposits, banking has gotten more complicated. ATMs and online bank statements will show deposits available before the money is actually in your account. Using your debit card at a gas station or to reserve a hotel room, for example, can put a hold on funds. Some merchants may be slow to send in charges. And banks can sit on deposits — an out-of-state check may take up to five days to clear. Add to that the constant reordering of debits and your account balance can quickly become a moving target — hard to track accurately day to day. "Banks use different algorithms to process payments than what you see online," says Harvard's McGovern. "It gives you a false sense of security."
10 Things Millionaires Won't Tell You
1. "You may think I'm rich, but I don't."
A million dollars may sound like a fortune to most people, and folks with that much cash can't complain — they're richer than 90 percent of U.S. households and earn $366,000 a year, on average, putting them in the top 1 percent of taxpayers. But the club isn't so exclusive anymore. Some 10 million households have a net worth above $1 million, excluding home equity, almost double the number in 2002. Moreover, a recent survey by Fidelity found just 8 percent of millionaires think they're "very" or "extremely" wealthy, while 19 percent don't feel rich at all. "They're worried about health care, retirement and how they'll sustain their lifestyle," says Gail Graham, a wealth-management executive at Fidelity.
Indeed, many millionaires still don't have enough for exclusive luxuries, like membership at an elite golf club, which can top $300,000 a year. While $1 million was a tidy sum three decades ago, you'd need $3.6 million for the same purchasing power today. And half of all millionaires have a net worth of $2.5 million or less, according to research firm TNS. So what does it take to feel truly rich? The magic number is $23 million, according to Fidelity.
2. "I shop at Wal-Mart..."
They may not buy the 99-cent paper towels, but millionaires know what it is to be frugal. About 80 percent say they spend with a middle-class mind-set, according to a 2007 survey of high-net-worth individuals, published by American Express and the Harrison Group. That means buying luxury items on sale, hunting for bargains — even clipping coupons.
Don Crane, a small-business owner in Santa Rosa, Calif., certainly sees the value of everyday saving. "We can afford just about anything," he says, adding that his net worth is over $1 million. But he and his wife both grew up on farms in the Midwest — where nothing was wasted — and his wife clips coupons to this day. In fact, most millionaires come from middle-class households, and roughly 70 percent have been wealthy for less than 15 years, according to the AmEx/Harrison survey. That said, there are plenty of millionaires who never check a price tag. "I've always wanted to live above my means because it inspired me to work harder," says Robert Kiyosaki, author of the 1997 best seller Rich Dad, Poor Dad. An entrepreneur worth millions, Kiyosaki says he doesn't even know what his house would go for today.
3. "...but I didn't get rich by skimping on lattes."
So how do you join the millionaires' club? You could buy stocks or real estate, play the slots in Vegas — or take the most common path: running your own business. That's how half of all millionaires made their money, according to the AmEx/Harrison survey. About a third had a professional practice or worked in the corporate world; only 3 percent inherited their wealth.
Regardless of how they built their nest egg, virtually all millionaires "make judicious use of debt," says Russ Alan Prince, coauthor of "The Middle-Class Millionaire." They'll take out loans to build their business, avoid high-interest credit card debt and leverage their home equity to finance purchases if their cash flow doesn't cut it. Nor is their wealth tied up in their homes. Home equity represents just 11 percent of millionaires' total assets, according to TNS. "People who are serious about building wealth always want to have a mortgage," says Jim Bell, president of Bell Investment Advisors. His home is probably worth $1.5 million, he adds, but he owes $900,000 on it. "I'm in no hurry to pay it off," he says. "It's one of the few tax deductions I get."
4. "I have a concierge for everything."
That hot restaurant may be booked for months — at least when Joe Nobody calls to make reservations. But many top eateries set aside tables for celebrities and A-list clientele, and that's where the personal concierge comes in. Working for retainers that range anywhere from $25 an hour to six figures a year, these modern-day butlers have the inside track on chic restaurants, spa reservations, even an early tee time at the golf club. And good concierges will scour the planet for whatever their clients want — whether it's holy water blessed personally by the Pope, rare Mexican tequila or artisanal sausages found only in northern Spain. "For some people, the cost doesn't matter," says Yamileth Delgado, who runs Marquise Concierge and who once found those sausages for a client — 40 pounds of chorizo that went for $1,000.
Concierge services now extend to medical attention as well. At the high end: For roughly $2,000 to $4,000 a month, clients can get 24-hour access to a primary-care physician who makes house calls and can facilitate admission to a hospital "without long waits in the emergency room," as one New York City service puts it.
5. "You don't get rich by being nice."
John D. Rockefeller threatened rivals with bankruptcy if they didn't sell out to his company, Standard Oil. Bill Gates was ruthless in building Microsoft into the world's largest software firm (remember Netscape?). Indeed, many millionaires privately admit they're "bastards in business," says Prince. "They aren't nice guys." Of course, the wealthy don't exactly look in the mirror and see Gordon Gekko either. Most millionaires share the values of their moderate-income parents, says Lewis Schiff, a private wealth consultant and Prince's coauthor: "Spending time with family really matters to them." Just 12 percent say that what they want most to be remembered for is their legacy in business, according to the AmEx/Harrison study.
Millionaires are also seemingly undaunted by failure. Crane, for example, now runs a successful company that screens tenants for landlords. But his first business venture, a real estate partnership, went bankrupt, costing him $20,000 — more than his house was worth at the time. "It was the most depressing time in my life, but it was the best lesson I ever learned," he says.
6. "Taxes are for little people."
Most millionaires do pay taxes. In fact, the top 1 percent of earners paid nearly 40 percent of federal income taxes in 2005 — a whopping $368 billion — according to the Internal Revenue Service. That said, the wealthy tend to derive a higher portion of their income from dividends and capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates than wages (15 percent for long-term capital gains versus 25 percent for middle-class wages). Also, high-income earners pay Social Security tax only on their first $97,500 of income.
But the big savings come from owning a business and deducting everything related to it. Landlords can also depreciate their commercial properties and expenses like mortgage interest. And that's without doing any creative accounting. Then there are the tax shelters, trusts and other mechanisms the superrich use to shield their wealth. An estimated 2 million Americans have unreported accounts offshore, and income from foreign tax shelters costs the U.S. $20 billion to $40 billion a year, according to the IRS. Indeed, "an increasing number of people want to establish an offshore fund," says Vernon Jacobs, a certified public accountant in Kansas who specializes in legal foreign accounts.
7. "I was a B student."
Mom was right when she said good grades were the key to success — just not necessarily a big bank account. According to the book "The Millionaire Mind," the median college grade point average for millionaires is 2.9, and the average SAT score is 1190 — hardly Harvard material. In fact, 59 percent of millionaires attended a state college or university, according to AmEx/Harrison.
When asked to list the keys to their success, millionaires rank hard work first, followed by education, determination and "treating others with respect." They also say that what they absorbed in class was less important than learning how to study and stay disciplined, says Jim Taylor, vice chairman of the Harrison Group. Granted, 48 percent of millionaires hold an advanced degree, and elite colleges do open doors to careers on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley (not to mention social connections that grease the wheels). But for every Ph.D. millionaire, there are many more who squeaked through school. Kiyosaki, for one, says the only way he survived college calculus was by "sitting near" the smart kids in class — "we cheated like crazy," he says.
8. "Like my Ferrari? It's a rental."
Why spend $3,000 on a Versace bag that'll be out of style as soon as next season when you can rent it for $175 a month? For that matter, why blow $250,000 on a Ferrari when for $25,000 it can be yours for a few weekends a year? Clubs that offer "fractional ownership" of jets have been popular for some time, and now the concept has extended to other high-end luxuries like exotic cars and fine art. How hot is the trend? More than 50 percent of millionaires say they plan to rent luxury goods within the next 12 months, according to a survey by Prince & Associates. Handbags topped the list, followed by cars, jewelry, watches and art. Online companies like Bag Borrow or Steal, for example, cater to customers who always want new designer accessories and jewelry, for prices starting at $15 a week.
For Suzanne Garner, a millionaire software engineer in Santa Clara, Calif., owning a $100,000 car didn't make financial sense (she drives a Mazda Miata). Instead, Garner pays up to $30,000 in annual membership fees to Club Sportiva, a fractional-ownership car club in San Francisco that lets her take out Ferraris, Lamborghinis and other exotic vehicles on weekends. "I'm all about the car," she says. And so are other people, it seems. While stopped at a light in a Ferrari recently, Garner received a marriage proposal from a guy in a pickup truck. (She declined the offer.)
9. "Turns out money can buy happiness."
It may not be comforting to folks who aren't minting cash, but the rich really are different. "There's no group in America that's happier than the wealthy," says Taylor, of the Harrison Group. Roughly 70 percent of millionaires say that money"created" more happiness for them,he notes. Higher income also correlates with higher ratings in life satisfaction, according to a new study by economists at the Wharton School of Business. But it's not necessarily the Bentley or Manolo Blahniks that lead to bliss. "It's the freedom that money buys," says Betsey Stevenson, coauthor of the Wharton study.
Concomitantly, rates of depression are lower among the wealthy, according to the Wharton study, and the rich tend to have better health than the rest of the population, says James Smith, senior labor economist at the Rand Corporation. (In fact, health and happiness are as closely correlated as wealth and happiness, Smith says.) The wealthy even seem to smile and laugh more often, according to the Wharton study, to say nothing of getting treated with more respect and eating better food. "People experience their day very differently when they have a lot of money," Stevenson says.
10. "You worry about the Joneses — I worry about keeping up with the Trumps."
Wealth may go a long way toward creating happiness, but the middle-class rich still can't afford the life of the billionaire next door — the guy who writes charity checks for $100,000 and retreats to his own private island. "What makes people happy isn't how much they're making," says Glenn Firebaugh, a sociologist at Pennsylvania State University. "It's how much they're making relative to their peers."
Indeed, for all their riches, some 40 percent of millionaires fear that their standard of living will decline in retirement and that their money will run out before they die, according to Fidelity. Of course, it may not help if their lifestyle is so lavish that they're barely squeaking by on $400,000 a year. "You can always be happier with more money," says Stevenson. "There's no satiation point." But that's the trouble with keeping up with the Trumps. "Millionaires are always looking up," says Schiff, "and think it's better up there."
A million dollars may sound like a fortune to most people, and folks with that much cash can't complain — they're richer than 90 percent of U.S. households and earn $366,000 a year, on average, putting them in the top 1 percent of taxpayers. But the club isn't so exclusive anymore. Some 10 million households have a net worth above $1 million, excluding home equity, almost double the number in 2002. Moreover, a recent survey by Fidelity found just 8 percent of millionaires think they're "very" or "extremely" wealthy, while 19 percent don't feel rich at all. "They're worried about health care, retirement and how they'll sustain their lifestyle," says Gail Graham, a wealth-management executive at Fidelity.
Indeed, many millionaires still don't have enough for exclusive luxuries, like membership at an elite golf club, which can top $300,000 a year. While $1 million was a tidy sum three decades ago, you'd need $3.6 million for the same purchasing power today. And half of all millionaires have a net worth of $2.5 million or less, according to research firm TNS. So what does it take to feel truly rich? The magic number is $23 million, according to Fidelity.
2. "I shop at Wal-Mart..."
They may not buy the 99-cent paper towels, but millionaires know what it is to be frugal. About 80 percent say they spend with a middle-class mind-set, according to a 2007 survey of high-net-worth individuals, published by American Express and the Harrison Group. That means buying luxury items on sale, hunting for bargains — even clipping coupons.
Don Crane, a small-business owner in Santa Rosa, Calif., certainly sees the value of everyday saving. "We can afford just about anything," he says, adding that his net worth is over $1 million. But he and his wife both grew up on farms in the Midwest — where nothing was wasted — and his wife clips coupons to this day. In fact, most millionaires come from middle-class households, and roughly 70 percent have been wealthy for less than 15 years, according to the AmEx/Harrison survey. That said, there are plenty of millionaires who never check a price tag. "I've always wanted to live above my means because it inspired me to work harder," says Robert Kiyosaki, author of the 1997 best seller Rich Dad, Poor Dad. An entrepreneur worth millions, Kiyosaki says he doesn't even know what his house would go for today.
3. "...but I didn't get rich by skimping on lattes."
So how do you join the millionaires' club? You could buy stocks or real estate, play the slots in Vegas — or take the most common path: running your own business. That's how half of all millionaires made their money, according to the AmEx/Harrison survey. About a third had a professional practice or worked in the corporate world; only 3 percent inherited their wealth.
Regardless of how they built their nest egg, virtually all millionaires "make judicious use of debt," says Russ Alan Prince, coauthor of "The Middle-Class Millionaire." They'll take out loans to build their business, avoid high-interest credit card debt and leverage their home equity to finance purchases if their cash flow doesn't cut it. Nor is their wealth tied up in their homes. Home equity represents just 11 percent of millionaires' total assets, according to TNS. "People who are serious about building wealth always want to have a mortgage," says Jim Bell, president of Bell Investment Advisors. His home is probably worth $1.5 million, he adds, but he owes $900,000 on it. "I'm in no hurry to pay it off," he says. "It's one of the few tax deductions I get."
4. "I have a concierge for everything."
That hot restaurant may be booked for months — at least when Joe Nobody calls to make reservations. But many top eateries set aside tables for celebrities and A-list clientele, and that's where the personal concierge comes in. Working for retainers that range anywhere from $25 an hour to six figures a year, these modern-day butlers have the inside track on chic restaurants, spa reservations, even an early tee time at the golf club. And good concierges will scour the planet for whatever their clients want — whether it's holy water blessed personally by the Pope, rare Mexican tequila or artisanal sausages found only in northern Spain. "For some people, the cost doesn't matter," says Yamileth Delgado, who runs Marquise Concierge and who once found those sausages for a client — 40 pounds of chorizo that went for $1,000.
Concierge services now extend to medical attention as well. At the high end: For roughly $2,000 to $4,000 a month, clients can get 24-hour access to a primary-care physician who makes house calls and can facilitate admission to a hospital "without long waits in the emergency room," as one New York City service puts it.
5. "You don't get rich by being nice."
John D. Rockefeller threatened rivals with bankruptcy if they didn't sell out to his company, Standard Oil. Bill Gates was ruthless in building Microsoft into the world's largest software firm (remember Netscape?). Indeed, many millionaires privately admit they're "bastards in business," says Prince. "They aren't nice guys." Of course, the wealthy don't exactly look in the mirror and see Gordon Gekko either. Most millionaires share the values of their moderate-income parents, says Lewis Schiff, a private wealth consultant and Prince's coauthor: "Spending time with family really matters to them." Just 12 percent say that what they want most to be remembered for is their legacy in business, according to the AmEx/Harrison study.
Millionaires are also seemingly undaunted by failure. Crane, for example, now runs a successful company that screens tenants for landlords. But his first business venture, a real estate partnership, went bankrupt, costing him $20,000 — more than his house was worth at the time. "It was the most depressing time in my life, but it was the best lesson I ever learned," he says.
6. "Taxes are for little people."
Most millionaires do pay taxes. In fact, the top 1 percent of earners paid nearly 40 percent of federal income taxes in 2005 — a whopping $368 billion — according to the Internal Revenue Service. That said, the wealthy tend to derive a higher portion of their income from dividends and capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates than wages (15 percent for long-term capital gains versus 25 percent for middle-class wages). Also, high-income earners pay Social Security tax only on their first $97,500 of income.
But the big savings come from owning a business and deducting everything related to it. Landlords can also depreciate their commercial properties and expenses like mortgage interest. And that's without doing any creative accounting. Then there are the tax shelters, trusts and other mechanisms the superrich use to shield their wealth. An estimated 2 million Americans have unreported accounts offshore, and income from foreign tax shelters costs the U.S. $20 billion to $40 billion a year, according to the IRS. Indeed, "an increasing number of people want to establish an offshore fund," says Vernon Jacobs, a certified public accountant in Kansas who specializes in legal foreign accounts.
7. "I was a B student."
Mom was right when she said good grades were the key to success — just not necessarily a big bank account. According to the book "The Millionaire Mind," the median college grade point average for millionaires is 2.9, and the average SAT score is 1190 — hardly Harvard material. In fact, 59 percent of millionaires attended a state college or university, according to AmEx/Harrison.
When asked to list the keys to their success, millionaires rank hard work first, followed by education, determination and "treating others with respect." They also say that what they absorbed in class was less important than learning how to study and stay disciplined, says Jim Taylor, vice chairman of the Harrison Group. Granted, 48 percent of millionaires hold an advanced degree, and elite colleges do open doors to careers on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley (not to mention social connections that grease the wheels). But for every Ph.D. millionaire, there are many more who squeaked through school. Kiyosaki, for one, says the only way he survived college calculus was by "sitting near" the smart kids in class — "we cheated like crazy," he says.
8. "Like my Ferrari? It's a rental."
Why spend $3,000 on a Versace bag that'll be out of style as soon as next season when you can rent it for $175 a month? For that matter, why blow $250,000 on a Ferrari when for $25,000 it can be yours for a few weekends a year? Clubs that offer "fractional ownership" of jets have been popular for some time, and now the concept has extended to other high-end luxuries like exotic cars and fine art. How hot is the trend? More than 50 percent of millionaires say they plan to rent luxury goods within the next 12 months, according to a survey by Prince & Associates. Handbags topped the list, followed by cars, jewelry, watches and art. Online companies like Bag Borrow or Steal, for example, cater to customers who always want new designer accessories and jewelry, for prices starting at $15 a week.
For Suzanne Garner, a millionaire software engineer in Santa Clara, Calif., owning a $100,000 car didn't make financial sense (she drives a Mazda Miata). Instead, Garner pays up to $30,000 in annual membership fees to Club Sportiva, a fractional-ownership car club in San Francisco that lets her take out Ferraris, Lamborghinis and other exotic vehicles on weekends. "I'm all about the car," she says. And so are other people, it seems. While stopped at a light in a Ferrari recently, Garner received a marriage proposal from a guy in a pickup truck. (She declined the offer.)
9. "Turns out money can buy happiness."
It may not be comforting to folks who aren't minting cash, but the rich really are different. "There's no group in America that's happier than the wealthy," says Taylor, of the Harrison Group. Roughly 70 percent of millionaires say that money"created" more happiness for them,he notes. Higher income also correlates with higher ratings in life satisfaction, according to a new study by economists at the Wharton School of Business. But it's not necessarily the Bentley or Manolo Blahniks that lead to bliss. "It's the freedom that money buys," says Betsey Stevenson, coauthor of the Wharton study.
Concomitantly, rates of depression are lower among the wealthy, according to the Wharton study, and the rich tend to have better health than the rest of the population, says James Smith, senior labor economist at the Rand Corporation. (In fact, health and happiness are as closely correlated as wealth and happiness, Smith says.) The wealthy even seem to smile and laugh more often, according to the Wharton study, to say nothing of getting treated with more respect and eating better food. "People experience their day very differently when they have a lot of money," Stevenson says.
10. "You worry about the Joneses — I worry about keeping up with the Trumps."
Wealth may go a long way toward creating happiness, but the middle-class rich still can't afford the life of the billionaire next door — the guy who writes charity checks for $100,000 and retreats to his own private island. "What makes people happy isn't how much they're making," says Glenn Firebaugh, a sociologist at Pennsylvania State University. "It's how much they're making relative to their peers."
Indeed, for all their riches, some 40 percent of millionaires fear that their standard of living will decline in retirement and that their money will run out before they die, according to Fidelity. Of course, it may not help if their lifestyle is so lavish that they're barely squeaking by on $400,000 a year. "You can always be happier with more money," says Stevenson. "There's no satiation point." But that's the trouble with keeping up with the Trumps. "Millionaires are always looking up," says Schiff, "and think it's better up there."
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Tourist arrivals dip
Another dip in arrivals last month as global economic slowdown and high fuel prices keep visitors away
THE global economic slowdown, rising inflation and high oil prices have put the brakes on Singapore's tourism industry, causing the tourism board to express concern that it could fail to meet this year's target of 10.8 million visitors.
After 51 months of consecutive growth in tourist arrivals, Singapore saw its second year-on-year decline for July.
Last month, 916,000 foreigners visited the Republic. Though the highest number to date this year, and better than June's 817,000, it was a drop of 3.8 per cent from last July's 953,000 visitors.
There are more reasons to worry: Only four of the top 15 visitor-generating countries saw growth compared with the same period last year.
The four, according to the latest report released yesterday by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB), are: Vietnam (17.3 per cent growth, with 29,000 visitors); Germany, (8.3 per cent growth, 13,000); India (7.1 per cent growth, 63,000); and Australia (5.1 per cent growth, 80,000).
Singapore's top tourists, the Indonesians, dropped in number to 167,000, down 13 per cent from last July, and the No. 2 market, China, dipped 4 per cent to 105,000.
The weakening of the industry can be traced back to April when visitor arrivals expanded at a slower rate of 0.8 per cent over the previous year, the lowest growth in 51 months.
Industry players say the global economic slowdown along with high fuel prices are reasons for tourists staying away.
Mr Michael Soh, who runs Diamond Tours specialising in the China market, estimated that the decline in business from Chinese tourists could be as high as 40 per cent.
He said the Sichuan quake saw the local government cutting back on official travel. Other factors include the Beijing Olympics and commercial flights from China to new destinations like Taiwan.
Hotels, which experienced a boom with record room rates and occupancy in the last two years, have been hit by the drop in arrivals.
Said Shangri-La Singapore's general manager Thierry Douin: 'We did so well last year that this is unexpected. We are definitely not seeing the figures we hoped to get for this year.'
July's average room occupancy was down 5.7 percentage points to 85 per cent. The STB reported that average room rates were up from last July by 14.3 per cent at $238. And revenue was estimated at $180 million, up 6.2 per cent from last year.
Hotels from The Sentosa Resort to Meritus Mandarin cited the softening of corporate travel as a major factor for the decline as corporate clients are the ones who can afford to pay the more expensive rates now commanded by Singapore hotels.
Companies have cut both the number of employees travelling as well as the number of days spent travelling, the hoteliers said. At the Shangri-La, corporate demand has dropped by 10 to 15 per cent over the same period last year. At the Royal Plaza on Scotts, corporate business has fallen from 90 per cent of overall occupancy to 85 per cent.
But hoteliers are expecting demand to pick up in the second half of the year with events like the world's first Formula One night race next month.
The STB said in its statement that the downward trend for June and July 'reflects the challenging global economic environment and outlook for the tourism sector, which may continue into 2009'.
Although Singapore may fall short of its arrivals target, STB is trying to hit its tourist spending target of $15.5 billion. A spokesman said it is boosting efforts in marketing Singapore in traditional source markets with big spenders, like Indonesia, and promoting major events like Christmas in the Tropics.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ups and downs in July's tourism data
Visitor arrivals: 916,000, down 3.8 per cent from July last year
Markets with increased arrivals
Vietnam: 29,000, up 17.3 per cent
Germany: 13,000, up 8.3 per cent
India: 63,000, up 7.1 per cent
Australia: 80,000, up 5.1 per cent
Key markets that dropped
Indonesia: 167,000, down 13 per cent
China: 105,000, down 4 per cent
Japan: 47,000, down 4 per cent
Malaysia: 46,000, down 8 per cent
South Korea: 39,000, down 15 per cent
Hong Kong: 28,000, down 12 per cent
Taiwan: 19,000, down 22 per cent
Hotel performance
Room revenue: $180 million, up 6.2 per cent
Average room rates: $238, up 14.3 per cent
Average occupancy rate: 85 per cent, down 5.7 percentage points
THE global economic slowdown, rising inflation and high oil prices have put the brakes on Singapore's tourism industry, causing the tourism board to express concern that it could fail to meet this year's target of 10.8 million visitors.
After 51 months of consecutive growth in tourist arrivals, Singapore saw its second year-on-year decline for July.
Last month, 916,000 foreigners visited the Republic. Though the highest number to date this year, and better than June's 817,000, it was a drop of 3.8 per cent from last July's 953,000 visitors.
There are more reasons to worry: Only four of the top 15 visitor-generating countries saw growth compared with the same period last year.
The four, according to the latest report released yesterday by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB), are: Vietnam (17.3 per cent growth, with 29,000 visitors); Germany, (8.3 per cent growth, 13,000); India (7.1 per cent growth, 63,000); and Australia (5.1 per cent growth, 80,000).
Singapore's top tourists, the Indonesians, dropped in number to 167,000, down 13 per cent from last July, and the No. 2 market, China, dipped 4 per cent to 105,000.
The weakening of the industry can be traced back to April when visitor arrivals expanded at a slower rate of 0.8 per cent over the previous year, the lowest growth in 51 months.
Industry players say the global economic slowdown along with high fuel prices are reasons for tourists staying away.
Mr Michael Soh, who runs Diamond Tours specialising in the China market, estimated that the decline in business from Chinese tourists could be as high as 40 per cent.
He said the Sichuan quake saw the local government cutting back on official travel. Other factors include the Beijing Olympics and commercial flights from China to new destinations like Taiwan.
Hotels, which experienced a boom with record room rates and occupancy in the last two years, have been hit by the drop in arrivals.
Said Shangri-La Singapore's general manager Thierry Douin: 'We did so well last year that this is unexpected. We are definitely not seeing the figures we hoped to get for this year.'
July's average room occupancy was down 5.7 percentage points to 85 per cent. The STB reported that average room rates were up from last July by 14.3 per cent at $238. And revenue was estimated at $180 million, up 6.2 per cent from last year.
Hotels from The Sentosa Resort to Meritus Mandarin cited the softening of corporate travel as a major factor for the decline as corporate clients are the ones who can afford to pay the more expensive rates now commanded by Singapore hotels.
Companies have cut both the number of employees travelling as well as the number of days spent travelling, the hoteliers said. At the Shangri-La, corporate demand has dropped by 10 to 15 per cent over the same period last year. At the Royal Plaza on Scotts, corporate business has fallen from 90 per cent of overall occupancy to 85 per cent.
But hoteliers are expecting demand to pick up in the second half of the year with events like the world's first Formula One night race next month.
The STB said in its statement that the downward trend for June and July 'reflects the challenging global economic environment and outlook for the tourism sector, which may continue into 2009'.
Although Singapore may fall short of its arrivals target, STB is trying to hit its tourist spending target of $15.5 billion. A spokesman said it is boosting efforts in marketing Singapore in traditional source markets with big spenders, like Indonesia, and promoting major events like Christmas in the Tropics.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ups and downs in July's tourism data
Visitor arrivals: 916,000, down 3.8 per cent from July last year
Markets with increased arrivals
Vietnam: 29,000, up 17.3 per cent
Germany: 13,000, up 8.3 per cent
India: 63,000, up 7.1 per cent
Australia: 80,000, up 5.1 per cent
Key markets that dropped
Indonesia: 167,000, down 13 per cent
China: 105,000, down 4 per cent
Japan: 47,000, down 4 per cent
Malaysia: 46,000, down 8 per cent
South Korea: 39,000, down 15 per cent
Hong Kong: 28,000, down 12 per cent
Taiwan: 19,000, down 22 per cent
Hotel performance
Room revenue: $180 million, up 6.2 per cent
Average room rates: $238, up 14.3 per cent
Average occupancy rate: 85 per cent, down 5.7 percentage points
跟 股 神 買 貨 唔 使 心 急
前 日 港 股 急 升 ， 原 因 是 上 周 五 美 股 急 升 ， 但 星 期 一 美 股 又 急 跌 ， 再 加 上 內 地 股 市 也 急 跌 ， 但 是 ， 又 奇 跡 得 很 ， 昨 日 港 股 在 午 後 竟 然 收 復 大 部 份 失 地 。 午 後 的 反 彈 ， 相 信 又 足 以 殺 掉 不 少 在 期 貨 市 場 造 空 的 淡 友 。
不 少 散 戶 一 聽 人 說 熊 市 仍 未 見 底 ， 心 想 不 如 買 熊 證 、 買 Put 輪 或 直 接 沽 空 恆 指 期 貨 來 賺 錢 ， 補 回 手 上 大 量 蟹 貨 的 損 失 。 但 是 ， 這 種 以 小 博 大 的 衍 生 工 具 之 投 機 ， 不 論 牛 市 熊 市 ， 都 有 可 能 賺 也 有 可 能 虧 ， 定 力 不 夠 的 ， 或 者 無 力 補 倉 者 ， 風 險 之 大 與 到 賭 場 賭 博 沒 分 別 。
國 壽 （ 2628 ） 半 年 盈 利 下 跌 32% ， 但 昨 日 股 價 上 升 2.15% ， 原 因 是 市 場 傳 出 股 神 畢 菲 特 打 算 入 股 。 中 信 銀 行 （ 998 ） 也 有 一 模 一 樣 的 傳 聞 ， 昨 日 股 價 上 升 2.36% ， 內 地 中 信 銀 行 A 股 更 是 升 停 板 （ 編 按 ： 這 個 傳 聞 已 遭 信 行 否 認 ） 。
股 神 究 竟 想 入 股 國 壽 或 是 中 信 銀 行 ？ 我 覺 得 不 需 要 猜 ， 也 沒 有 必 要 追 ， 股 神 入 股 絕 對 不 是 在 市 場 買 ， 不 會 露 出 入 股 風 聲 ， 讓 市 場 將 股 價 炒 高 ， 然 後 高 價 入 股 。 股 神 是 知 名 的 價 值 投 資 者 ， 一 生 只 買 便 宜 貨 ， 如 果 你 現 在 憑 傳 聞 高 追 ， 就 算 給 你 猜 中 股 神 入 股 的 股 ， 股 神 的 入 股 價 也 很 可 能 是 低 於 已 經 炒 高 的 市 價 。
內 銀 股 獨 愛 交 行
我 寧 可 等 到 股 神 正 式 宣 佈 入 股 後 才 追 ， 股 神 既 然 是 價 值 投 資 者 ， 入 股 價 必 然 低 ， 股 神 入 股 後 才 追 貨 ， 股 價 必 定 仍 有 大 幅 上 升 空 間 。 當 年 ， 我 也 是 在 股 神 宣 佈 入 股 中 石 油 （ 857 ） 後 才 買 ， 其 中 一 半 持 有 至 今 ， 另 一 半 換 了 中 海 油 （ 883 ） 。
多 家 上 市 的 中 資 銀 行 中 ， 我 獨 愛 交 通 銀 行 （ 3328 ） ， 原 因 是 交 行 背 後 有 匯 控 （ 005 ） 撐 住 。 昨 日 交 行 公 佈 業 績 ， 很 不 錯 ， 盈 利 增 長 81% ， 每 股 盈 利 0.32 元 人 民 幣 ， 如 果 下 半 年 也 有 如 此 成 績 ， 即 全 年 0.64 元 人 民 幣 ， 對 匯 控 而 言 ， 每 年 投 資 回 報 率 已 接 近 30% 。
匯 控 也 是 一 家 無 寶 不 落 的 企 業 ， 目 前 ， 英 美 銀 行 股 的 股 價 全 都 跌 得 慘 不 忍 睹 ，匯 控 應 該 是 在 英 國 註 冊 的 銀 行 中 表 現 最 佳 的 ， 所 依 靠 的 就 是 來 自 亞 洲 的 盈 利 ， 另 一 家 以 亞 洲 為 營 業 中 心 的 在 英 國 註 冊 的 銀 行 渣 打 （ 2888 ） ， 業 績 也 不 錯 。
渣 打 銀 行 的 最 大 股 東 是 新 加 坡 政 府 旗 下 的 淡 馬 錫 ， 今 年 上 半 年 ， 淡 馬 錫 純 利 182 億 坡 元 ， 約 1000 億 港 元 ， 比 去 年 同 期 增 長 一 倍 。 反 觀 香 港 金 融 管 理 局 ， 今 年 上 半 年 卻 虧 了 數 百 億 港 元 ， 論 投 資 的 本 事 ， 新 加 坡 勝 香 港 。
淡 馬 錫 的 投 資 方 法 有 一 點 像 畢 菲 特 ， 不 是 分 散 資 金 給 許 許 多 多 基 金 經 理 在 市 場 上 買 賣 ， 而 是 擇 肥 而 吃 ， 通 過 談 判 而 大 規 模 入 股 ， 成 為 策 略 性 股 東 。
不 少 散 戶 一 聽 人 說 熊 市 仍 未 見 底 ， 心 想 不 如 買 熊 證 、 買 Put 輪 或 直 接 沽 空 恆 指 期 貨 來 賺 錢 ， 補 回 手 上 大 量 蟹 貨 的 損 失 。 但 是 ， 這 種 以 小 博 大 的 衍 生 工 具 之 投 機 ， 不 論 牛 市 熊 市 ， 都 有 可 能 賺 也 有 可 能 虧 ， 定 力 不 夠 的 ， 或 者 無 力 補 倉 者 ， 風 險 之 大 與 到 賭 場 賭 博 沒 分 別 。
國 壽 （ 2628 ） 半 年 盈 利 下 跌 32% ， 但 昨 日 股 價 上 升 2.15% ， 原 因 是 市 場 傳 出 股 神 畢 菲 特 打 算 入 股 。 中 信 銀 行 （ 998 ） 也 有 一 模 一 樣 的 傳 聞 ， 昨 日 股 價 上 升 2.36% ， 內 地 中 信 銀 行 A 股 更 是 升 停 板 （ 編 按 ： 這 個 傳 聞 已 遭 信 行 否 認 ） 。
股 神 究 竟 想 入 股 國 壽 或 是 中 信 銀 行 ？ 我 覺 得 不 需 要 猜 ， 也 沒 有 必 要 追 ， 股 神 入 股 絕 對 不 是 在 市 場 買 ， 不 會 露 出 入 股 風 聲 ， 讓 市 場 將 股 價 炒 高 ， 然 後 高 價 入 股 。 股 神 是 知 名 的 價 值 投 資 者 ， 一 生 只 買 便 宜 貨 ， 如 果 你 現 在 憑 傳 聞 高 追 ， 就 算 給 你 猜 中 股 神 入 股 的 股 ， 股 神 的 入 股 價 也 很 可 能 是 低 於 已 經 炒 高 的 市 價 。
內 銀 股 獨 愛 交 行
我 寧 可 等 到 股 神 正 式 宣 佈 入 股 後 才 追 ， 股 神 既 然 是 價 值 投 資 者 ， 入 股 價 必 然 低 ， 股 神 入 股 後 才 追 貨 ， 股 價 必 定 仍 有 大 幅 上 升 空 間 。 當 年 ， 我 也 是 在 股 神 宣 佈 入 股 中 石 油 （ 857 ） 後 才 買 ， 其 中 一 半 持 有 至 今 ， 另 一 半 換 了 中 海 油 （ 883 ） 。
多 家 上 市 的 中 資 銀 行 中 ， 我 獨 愛 交 通 銀 行 （ 3328 ） ， 原 因 是 交 行 背 後 有 匯 控 （ 005 ） 撐 住 。 昨 日 交 行 公 佈 業 績 ， 很 不 錯 ， 盈 利 增 長 81% ， 每 股 盈 利 0.32 元 人 民 幣 ， 如 果 下 半 年 也 有 如 此 成 績 ， 即 全 年 0.64 元 人 民 幣 ， 對 匯 控 而 言 ， 每 年 投 資 回 報 率 已 接 近 30% 。
匯 控 也 是 一 家 無 寶 不 落 的 企 業 ， 目 前 ， 英 美 銀 行 股 的 股 價 全 都 跌 得 慘 不 忍 睹 ，匯 控 應 該 是 在 英 國 註 冊 的 銀 行 中 表 現 最 佳 的 ， 所 依 靠 的 就 是 來 自 亞 洲 的 盈 利 ， 另 一 家 以 亞 洲 為 營 業 中 心 的 在 英 國 註 冊 的 銀 行 渣 打 （ 2888 ） ， 業 績 也 不 錯 。
渣 打 銀 行 的 最 大 股 東 是 新 加 坡 政 府 旗 下 的 淡 馬 錫 ， 今 年 上 半 年 ， 淡 馬 錫 純 利 182 億 坡 元 ， 約 1000 億 港 元 ， 比 去 年 同 期 增 長 一 倍 。 反 觀 香 港 金 融 管 理 局 ， 今 年 上 半 年 卻 虧 了 數 百 億 港 元 ， 論 投 資 的 本 事 ， 新 加 坡 勝 香 港 。
淡 馬 錫 的 投 資 方 法 有 一 點 像 畢 菲 特 ， 不 是 分 散 資 金 給 許 許 多 多 基 金 經 理 在 市 場 上 買 賣 ， 而 是 擇 肥 而 吃 ， 通 過 談 判 而 大 規 模 入 股 ， 成 為 策 略 性 股 東 。
中國地產代理拍烏蠅
奧運後效應倒果為因
花旗推介中石化（386），估計今年每股獲利40.9仙，減少37.2％，P/E十六點七倍，目標價11.28元；國壽（2628）估計今年每股獲利87.8仙，減少36％，P/E二十七點八倍，目標價30元；中國鐵建（1186）估計今年每股獲利36.2仙，升91.3％，P/E二十七點三倍，目標價15.05元；中通服（552）估計今年每股獲利28.6仙，升33.3％，P/E十七點五倍，目標價7.4元；建行（939）估計今年每股獲利45.6仙，升50％，P/E十一點五倍，目標價6.6元；復星國際（656）估計今年每股獲利60.3仙，升80.7％，P/E六點三倍，目標價5.83元；合生（754）估計今年每股獲利1.36元，減少3.7％，P/E五倍，目標價18.84元；江蘇寧滬（177）估計今年每股獲利35仙，升8％，P/E十四點九倍，目標價7元；建滔化工（148）估計今年每股獲利4元，升24％，P/E八點二倍，目標價50.7元；建滔積層板（1888）估計今年每股獲利66仙，升8.9％，P/E六點七倍，目標價6.3元；金界控股（3918）估計今年每股獲利2.8美仙，升16％，P/E八點二倍，目標價2.7元；創科實業（669）估計今年每股獲利25仙，升232％，P/E二十八點五倍，目標價7.8元；兗州煤業（1171）估計今年每股獲利1.655元，升132.3％，P/E六點五倍，目標價17.1元。
滬深三百指數下跌2.88％，收2331.53，出現連續第四天下跌。海通證券跌7.8％，市場擔心成交額下降導致收入減少；中信證券跌4.3％、國金證券跌8.6％及宏源證券下挫5％；國航重挫7.9％、南方航空重挫7.2％及東方航空大跌8.8％，因人民幣貶值；寶鋼下挫5.8％、武鋼大挫7.5％及馬鋼下跌6.1％。滬深三百指數今年已大挫56％，跌幅係彭博報道全球八十九個主要股市中最大。
中國證監會宣布考慮發行可換股債券交換大小非流通股，去減輕超過十萬億元人民幣嘅大小非流通股流入市場壓力。喺2010年前約有八十七萬億元人民幣大小非流通股變成全流通。家吓滬深A股市場全流通股總市值不過二十二萬九千億元人民幣，擔心市場無法消化新增嗰八十七萬億元人民幣市值股票；透過轉為可換股債券可令股票有秩序咁流入市場。
7月份美國Single-Family住房供應量係十點六個月，較6月份十一個月減少。如果連同Condos係十一點二個月（6月份係十一點一個月）；估計存量最高峰係明年首季。瑞信分析員認為Case-Shiller房屋價格指數必需再跌14％，美國樓價先跌到一般人可負擔嘅水平（雖然去年5月至今已跌咗15.8％）。如供樓利率由6.32厘降至5.5厘，未來樓價跌幅約7％；反之，如樓按利率見7.5厘，未來樓價可再跌24％，如再跌24％不但次按出事，連銀行樓按都會出事。
46％美國經濟學家認為金融危機係美國經濟最大威脅（3月份係52％）、16％認為高油價（較3月份11％大升）及15％認為通脹率（3月份10％）。
英倫銀行將減息0.25厘，至4.75厘，因為今年第二季GDP增長率係零，估計今年GDP增長率只得1.4%，係1992年嚟最低。
日本Asahi Homes再跌24％，見44日圓，創五年新低，已好接近牛市起步價（2003年3月20日）。因持有85.25％ Asahi Homes嘅大股東Sebon Corp申請破產，但唔會影響Asahi Homes財政。
去年瑞銀減少二千六百名員工，佔總員工人數12％。今年第二季止又再減少一千七百名員工，至一萬九千四百七十五人，好接近一萬九千人嘅目標。由於49％薪酬係以花紅方式發放，估計今年人工開支較去年慳番三分一及下半年完成重組。
北京奧運圓滿結束。大家喺度講緊奧運後效應可以話係完全倒果為因；2001年點解北京成功申辦奧運？理由係1978年開放改革政策落實，國力日漸興盛；而唔係因為舉辦奧運而令中國國力上升。換言之，係中國國力支持一個成功奧運，而唔係奧運支持中國國力。因此既冇奧運前效應，亦應該冇奧運後效應。例如1984年起所有舉辦奧運嘅國家，喺奧運後冇經濟衰退，理由係全球經濟向上。去年美國次按危機襲擊全球，北京雖有奧運護體，滬深三百指數亦喺去年10月至今仲係回落。
三種因素決定股價
中國國務院發展研究中心宏觀經濟研究部研究員張立群分析，北京GDP佔全國唔足4%，把幾個協辦城市經濟總量加埋，份額仲係好少，對全國GDP影響好有限。
中國今年上半年GDP增速10.4%，較去年同期回落1.8個百分點，理由係世界經濟去年下半年開始下行及中國宏觀政策漸收效果，同奧運無關。
國家發改委宏觀經濟研究院研究員王小廣認為，世界經濟減速、外貿形勢嚴峻、內部政策調整及自然災害等，都係令經濟出現困難嘅原因。受到資源及環境約束，中國經濟無法長期高速擴張，過去三十年中國依賴廉價勞動力及資源大量投入令經濟迅速崛起，總體係成功嘅，但可唔可以長此落去？家吓出現減速唔一定係壞事，反而可睇成係一個機會，畀中國依靠自主創新及擴大內需，通過產業升級建立資本及技術密集型產業競爭力。只需GDP保持喺9%增長，產業就出唔到大問題，經濟調整只係短期陣痛，下半年物價壓力將減少。
奧運之後，宏觀調整政策唔會出現重大改變，至於微調早已開始，例如紡織行業出口退稅提高、銀行貸款額增加及汽車消費稅調整；至於大調整依家冇必要，尤其係地產調整政策唔可以放鬆，因中國經濟唔可以再依賴房地產嘅炒賣，呢種方式對金融、消費、產業升級及資金有效配置都係一種妨害。
中國經濟進入下行係宏觀調控嘅結果，亦係政府成功阻止泡沫化經濟進一步擴大，刻意畀GDP增長率放緩。除咗股市所受影響較大（嚟自大小非）外，其他方面影響唔算大。從另一角度睇反而係國家兩防政策（防通脹、防經濟過熱）嘅成功。
依家問題係點樣減慢中小企業下滑速度而唔影響就業。其次係防止能源及原材料價格再一次向上。去年10月不肯減持股票嘅投資者家吓又怪得邊個（牛市三期平均P/E二十二倍以上，滬深A股P/E炒到四十六倍仍唔沽貨，家吓可怨邊個?!）？小心熊市三期平均P/E十二倍或以下嚟臨。A股遲早由供求因素決定股價，進入評估企業業績期，只有完成上述過渡期，A股先至可以正常發展。
未來三大因素決定股價：一、企業業績最基本；二、貨幣供應周期，即銀根緊或寬鬆；三、短期升降先係人心趨向。到依家都未見人行放寬銀根或減息，理論上股市只有繼續尋底。
去年11月中天置業被爆出賬面蝕咗1.7億元人民幣，向深圳樓市投下一個重磅炸彈。今年1月創輝中介地產公司執咗廣州三百幾間店舖，二手樓成交慘淡局面由深圳開始，然後擴散到廣東省大城市；跟住係北京及上海等城市內一D中小型中介行相繼執笠。
半年內20單生意都冇
深圳房地產研究中心發布〈關於當前中國樓市形勢分析報告〉。今年1至7月該市開發投資較去年同期減少3.63％；商品房空置面積升29.08％；新建商品房銷售中住宅面積賣咗一百七十九萬九千八百方米，較去年同期減少53.17％；該市商品住宅平均售價每平方米13276.58元人民幣，較去年同期升5.75％。今年6及7月房價每方米11159元人民幣及12387元人民幣；二手房交易規模面積二百萬一千二百方米，下降69％；住房不良貸款17.35億元人民幣，該市戶籍人口住房自有率75.6％。
中原地產住宅部副總經理張建也認為，家吓廣州市部分中介公司有唔少地舖7月份出現零成交，中原地產已算唔錯，上半年平均一個月成交仲有十幾單，但7月份就好吃力，因成交量仲喺度跌緊。
滿堂紅廣州喺今年上半年成交量較去年同期跌咗35％左右，集團已改變策略，由專攻二手樓改為同開發商合作，向客戶提供一手樓房源（類似1997至2003年本港地產代理商做法）。
北京多間大型房產中介機構7月份二手樓成交較去年同期下跌近六成，跌幅好大。以中大恒基為例，去年五百幾間分店，依家已減至三百二十二間，今年上半年有一半以上嘅二手樓交易由中大恒基等三大中介機構完成，即係話其他中介機構每間上半年做唔到二十單嘅生意。
上海中介機構近半執笠，其中澳洲資本嘅Ray White Real Estate Co（澳洲最大中介公司）喺去年5月進入上海，計劃最少開一百間品牌店。家吓已減少到只有四至五間作為日後「後路」之用。根據官方數字，兩年前上海二手房中介門店約一萬六千間，依家已減少至七千間，跌幅達一半以上。
內地樓市後市點睇，木宰羊，但內地中介公司已步入寒冬。
中國工業及信息化部產業政策司副司長侯世國喺8月26日表示，中國經濟宏觀調控已改為「有保有壓」；引導資金向「三農」、結構調整、節能減排、自主創新及社會事業等五個重點領域傾斜，同時壓制「兩高」行業生產能力盲目擴張、促進市場經濟機制發展、糾正市場機制缺陷和不足，促進產業結構優化，形成以農業為基礎，高科技術產業為先導，基礎產業和製造業為支撑，服務業全面發展格局；產業政策唔係替代市場而係規範市場經濟秩序，糾正和彌補市場嘅缺陷。
幾時有得加電費？
改革開放以嚟中國經濟雖然高增長，但產業結構唔合理令資源消耗多、環境污染重及素質唔高嘅產業不斷取得新進展，依家國家政策就係糾正上述缺陷。家吓停產關閉企業中，好大部分係生產水平低下、資源消耗高、排放污染重及職工保障條件唔完善嘅企業，由於佢地難以承受高標準社會公益規範而被市場淘汰。
有一定生產水平及較好發展基礎嘅中小企業，由於原材料價格上升及市場放緩影響只屬暫時，喺政府加大對中小企業財稅扶持、信貸金融支持及減輕企業負擔政策落實後，可以好快渡過難關。
電力企業限產及其他企業限電，加上今夏高溫，長三角地區又再次出現電荒。呢次唔係裝機容量不足，而係煤電價格唔聯動，形成咗電廠多勞少得。電力生產愈多，虧損反而愈大，因此索性限產。2003及04年每噸煤價300至400元人民幣，加埋政府補貼一度電獲利15分左右，家吓煤價每噸超過1100元人民幣，每度電蝕17分甚至更多，點解要增產？
2005年發電設備累計平均利用小時為五千四百一十一小時，較2004年減少四十四小時；2006年又減少二百零三小時；去年再減少一百八十四小時。主要原因係「市場煤、計劃電」。生產電愈多、虧蝕愈大。長三角地區電廠亦「按章工作」，部分更出現資金周轉困難、存煤不足及煤質差，影響機組發電能力。幾時再批准加電費？
花旗推介中石化（386），估計今年每股獲利40.9仙，減少37.2％，P/E十六點七倍，目標價11.28元；國壽（2628）估計今年每股獲利87.8仙，減少36％，P/E二十七點八倍，目標價30元；中國鐵建（1186）估計今年每股獲利36.2仙，升91.3％，P/E二十七點三倍，目標價15.05元；中通服（552）估計今年每股獲利28.6仙，升33.3％，P/E十七點五倍，目標價7.4元；建行（939）估計今年每股獲利45.6仙，升50％，P/E十一點五倍，目標價6.6元；復星國際（656）估計今年每股獲利60.3仙，升80.7％，P/E六點三倍，目標價5.83元；合生（754）估計今年每股獲利1.36元，減少3.7％，P/E五倍，目標價18.84元；江蘇寧滬（177）估計今年每股獲利35仙，升8％，P/E十四點九倍，目標價7元；建滔化工（148）估計今年每股獲利4元，升24％，P/E八點二倍，目標價50.7元；建滔積層板（1888）估計今年每股獲利66仙，升8.9％，P/E六點七倍，目標價6.3元；金界控股（3918）估計今年每股獲利2.8美仙，升16％，P/E八點二倍，目標價2.7元；創科實業（669）估計今年每股獲利25仙，升232％，P/E二十八點五倍，目標價7.8元；兗州煤業（1171）估計今年每股獲利1.655元，升132.3％，P/E六點五倍，目標價17.1元。
滬深三百指數下跌2.88％，收2331.53，出現連續第四天下跌。海通證券跌7.8％，市場擔心成交額下降導致收入減少；中信證券跌4.3％、國金證券跌8.6％及宏源證券下挫5％；國航重挫7.9％、南方航空重挫7.2％及東方航空大跌8.8％，因人民幣貶值；寶鋼下挫5.8％、武鋼大挫7.5％及馬鋼下跌6.1％。滬深三百指數今年已大挫56％，跌幅係彭博報道全球八十九個主要股市中最大。
中國證監會宣布考慮發行可換股債券交換大小非流通股，去減輕超過十萬億元人民幣嘅大小非流通股流入市場壓力。喺2010年前約有八十七萬億元人民幣大小非流通股變成全流通。家吓滬深A股市場全流通股總市值不過二十二萬九千億元人民幣，擔心市場無法消化新增嗰八十七萬億元人民幣市值股票；透過轉為可換股債券可令股票有秩序咁流入市場。
7月份美國Single-Family住房供應量係十點六個月，較6月份十一個月減少。如果連同Condos係十一點二個月（6月份係十一點一個月）；估計存量最高峰係明年首季。瑞信分析員認為Case-Shiller房屋價格指數必需再跌14％，美國樓價先跌到一般人可負擔嘅水平（雖然去年5月至今已跌咗15.8％）。如供樓利率由6.32厘降至5.5厘，未來樓價跌幅約7％；反之，如樓按利率見7.5厘，未來樓價可再跌24％，如再跌24％不但次按出事，連銀行樓按都會出事。
46％美國經濟學家認為金融危機係美國經濟最大威脅（3月份係52％）、16％認為高油價（較3月份11％大升）及15％認為通脹率（3月份10％）。
英倫銀行將減息0.25厘，至4.75厘，因為今年第二季GDP增長率係零，估計今年GDP增長率只得1.4%，係1992年嚟最低。
日本Asahi Homes再跌24％，見44日圓，創五年新低，已好接近牛市起步價（2003年3月20日）。因持有85.25％ Asahi Homes嘅大股東Sebon Corp申請破產，但唔會影響Asahi Homes財政。
去年瑞銀減少二千六百名員工，佔總員工人數12％。今年第二季止又再減少一千七百名員工，至一萬九千四百七十五人，好接近一萬九千人嘅目標。由於49％薪酬係以花紅方式發放，估計今年人工開支較去年慳番三分一及下半年完成重組。
北京奧運圓滿結束。大家喺度講緊奧運後效應可以話係完全倒果為因；2001年點解北京成功申辦奧運？理由係1978年開放改革政策落實，國力日漸興盛；而唔係因為舉辦奧運而令中國國力上升。換言之，係中國國力支持一個成功奧運，而唔係奧運支持中國國力。因此既冇奧運前效應，亦應該冇奧運後效應。例如1984年起所有舉辦奧運嘅國家，喺奧運後冇經濟衰退，理由係全球經濟向上。去年美國次按危機襲擊全球，北京雖有奧運護體，滬深三百指數亦喺去年10月至今仲係回落。
三種因素決定股價
中國國務院發展研究中心宏觀經濟研究部研究員張立群分析，北京GDP佔全國唔足4%，把幾個協辦城市經濟總量加埋，份額仲係好少，對全國GDP影響好有限。
中國今年上半年GDP增速10.4%，較去年同期回落1.8個百分點，理由係世界經濟去年下半年開始下行及中國宏觀政策漸收效果，同奧運無關。
國家發改委宏觀經濟研究院研究員王小廣認為，世界經濟減速、外貿形勢嚴峻、內部政策調整及自然災害等，都係令經濟出現困難嘅原因。受到資源及環境約束，中國經濟無法長期高速擴張，過去三十年中國依賴廉價勞動力及資源大量投入令經濟迅速崛起，總體係成功嘅，但可唔可以長此落去？家吓出現減速唔一定係壞事，反而可睇成係一個機會，畀中國依靠自主創新及擴大內需，通過產業升級建立資本及技術密集型產業競爭力。只需GDP保持喺9%增長，產業就出唔到大問題，經濟調整只係短期陣痛，下半年物價壓力將減少。
奧運之後，宏觀調整政策唔會出現重大改變，至於微調早已開始，例如紡織行業出口退稅提高、銀行貸款額增加及汽車消費稅調整；至於大調整依家冇必要，尤其係地產調整政策唔可以放鬆，因中國經濟唔可以再依賴房地產嘅炒賣，呢種方式對金融、消費、產業升級及資金有效配置都係一種妨害。
中國經濟進入下行係宏觀調控嘅結果，亦係政府成功阻止泡沫化經濟進一步擴大，刻意畀GDP增長率放緩。除咗股市所受影響較大（嚟自大小非）外，其他方面影響唔算大。從另一角度睇反而係國家兩防政策（防通脹、防經濟過熱）嘅成功。
依家問題係點樣減慢中小企業下滑速度而唔影響就業。其次係防止能源及原材料價格再一次向上。去年10月不肯減持股票嘅投資者家吓又怪得邊個（牛市三期平均P/E二十二倍以上，滬深A股P/E炒到四十六倍仍唔沽貨，家吓可怨邊個?!）？小心熊市三期平均P/E十二倍或以下嚟臨。A股遲早由供求因素決定股價，進入評估企業業績期，只有完成上述過渡期，A股先至可以正常發展。
未來三大因素決定股價：一、企業業績最基本；二、貨幣供應周期，即銀根緊或寬鬆；三、短期升降先係人心趨向。到依家都未見人行放寬銀根或減息，理論上股市只有繼續尋底。
去年11月中天置業被爆出賬面蝕咗1.7億元人民幣，向深圳樓市投下一個重磅炸彈。今年1月創輝中介地產公司執咗廣州三百幾間店舖，二手樓成交慘淡局面由深圳開始，然後擴散到廣東省大城市；跟住係北京及上海等城市內一D中小型中介行相繼執笠。
半年內20單生意都冇
深圳房地產研究中心發布〈關於當前中國樓市形勢分析報告〉。今年1至7月該市開發投資較去年同期減少3.63％；商品房空置面積升29.08％；新建商品房銷售中住宅面積賣咗一百七十九萬九千八百方米，較去年同期減少53.17％；該市商品住宅平均售價每平方米13276.58元人民幣，較去年同期升5.75％。今年6及7月房價每方米11159元人民幣及12387元人民幣；二手房交易規模面積二百萬一千二百方米，下降69％；住房不良貸款17.35億元人民幣，該市戶籍人口住房自有率75.6％。
中原地產住宅部副總經理張建也認為，家吓廣州市部分中介公司有唔少地舖7月份出現零成交，中原地產已算唔錯，上半年平均一個月成交仲有十幾單，但7月份就好吃力，因成交量仲喺度跌緊。
滿堂紅廣州喺今年上半年成交量較去年同期跌咗35％左右，集團已改變策略，由專攻二手樓改為同開發商合作，向客戶提供一手樓房源（類似1997至2003年本港地產代理商做法）。
北京多間大型房產中介機構7月份二手樓成交較去年同期下跌近六成，跌幅好大。以中大恒基為例，去年五百幾間分店，依家已減至三百二十二間，今年上半年有一半以上嘅二手樓交易由中大恒基等三大中介機構完成，即係話其他中介機構每間上半年做唔到二十單嘅生意。
上海中介機構近半執笠，其中澳洲資本嘅Ray White Real Estate Co（澳洲最大中介公司）喺去年5月進入上海，計劃最少開一百間品牌店。家吓已減少到只有四至五間作為日後「後路」之用。根據官方數字，兩年前上海二手房中介門店約一萬六千間，依家已減少至七千間，跌幅達一半以上。
內地樓市後市點睇，木宰羊，但內地中介公司已步入寒冬。
中國工業及信息化部產業政策司副司長侯世國喺8月26日表示，中國經濟宏觀調控已改為「有保有壓」；引導資金向「三農」、結構調整、節能減排、自主創新及社會事業等五個重點領域傾斜，同時壓制「兩高」行業生產能力盲目擴張、促進市場經濟機制發展、糾正市場機制缺陷和不足，促進產業結構優化，形成以農業為基礎，高科技術產業為先導，基礎產業和製造業為支撑，服務業全面發展格局；產業政策唔係替代市場而係規範市場經濟秩序，糾正和彌補市場嘅缺陷。
幾時有得加電費？
改革開放以嚟中國經濟雖然高增長，但產業結構唔合理令資源消耗多、環境污染重及素質唔高嘅產業不斷取得新進展，依家國家政策就係糾正上述缺陷。家吓停產關閉企業中，好大部分係生產水平低下、資源消耗高、排放污染重及職工保障條件唔完善嘅企業，由於佢地難以承受高標準社會公益規範而被市場淘汰。
有一定生產水平及較好發展基礎嘅中小企業，由於原材料價格上升及市場放緩影響只屬暫時，喺政府加大對中小企業財稅扶持、信貸金融支持及減輕企業負擔政策落實後，可以好快渡過難關。
電力企業限產及其他企業限電，加上今夏高溫，長三角地區又再次出現電荒。呢次唔係裝機容量不足，而係煤電價格唔聯動，形成咗電廠多勞少得。電力生產愈多，虧損反而愈大，因此索性限產。2003及04年每噸煤價300至400元人民幣，加埋政府補貼一度電獲利15分左右，家吓煤價每噸超過1100元人民幣，每度電蝕17分甚至更多，點解要增產？
2005年發電設備累計平均利用小時為五千四百一十一小時，較2004年減少四十四小時；2006年又減少二百零三小時；去年再減少一百八十四小時。主要原因係「市場煤、計劃電」。生產電愈多、虧蝕愈大。長三角地區電廠亦「按章工作」，部分更出現資金周轉困難、存煤不足及煤質差，影響機組發電能力。幾時再批准加電費？
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Sell Banks – Late Cycle Performers, but End-STI Bear Mkt. Losers
Downgrade DBS to Sell, UOB still top Sell:
Banks have delivered an expected late cycle outperformance vs. the STI, notably OCBC, UOB, on solid loan growth/NIMs, although 2Q08 disappointed on poor markets-related income, regional concerns.
Past bear cycles show that as the STI approaches a trough, banks sell-off as an economic downturn broadens and deepens. Downgrade DBS to a Sell from Buy; UOB top Sell. Banks look cheap on consensus PER, but may falter as downside risks emerge and earnings visibility deteriorates. Banks could then test the lower supports implied by Price-Book, which may mark the bottom of the STI bear.
Singapore bear markets & recessions:
Citi Strategist Hak Bin Chua notes that in the past 4 bear markets accompanied by economic downturns, the STI fell an average 44% from the peak over 71 weeks. The current STI fall of 29% from the peak has taken 46 weeks, suggesting a further 10-15%fall and several months to go. From the Oct '07 STI peak, the 3 banks have outperformed the STI 8%-16%. In the previous 4 bear cycles, banks sold off at the end, giving up their late cycle outperformance, but marking the bottom for the STI's fall.
Assessing downside earnings risks:
The catalyst for a sell-off is earnings risk as the economy endures a tough next 12-18 months. GDP contraction is now a reality in several countries. Citi Economist Kit Wei Zheng has cut 2009E Singapore GDP growth to +3.6% (2008E +4.1%). For banks, net interest margins should weaken, while analysts may underestimate the extent of provision charge increases. Fees should slow on weak markets-related income, slowdown in retail spending and tourism. We have cut FY09/10 forecasts 7%-9%; we are now 12%-19% below consensus.
Finding the banks' valuation trough:
The difficulty for investors to sell banks is that they are close to trough on PERs. But as in past cycles, if a downturn hurts earnings visibility, prices may break down through normal PER supports, and test the lower P/Book troughs. This bank sell-off will likely mark the bottom for the STI.
Banks have delivered an expected late cycle outperformance vs. the STI, notably OCBC, UOB, on solid loan growth/NIMs, although 2Q08 disappointed on poor markets-related income, regional concerns.
Past bear cycles show that as the STI approaches a trough, banks sell-off as an economic downturn broadens and deepens. Downgrade DBS to a Sell from Buy; UOB top Sell. Banks look cheap on consensus PER, but may falter as downside risks emerge and earnings visibility deteriorates. Banks could then test the lower supports implied by Price-Book, which may mark the bottom of the STI bear.
Singapore bear markets & recessions:
Citi Strategist Hak Bin Chua notes that in the past 4 bear markets accompanied by economic downturns, the STI fell an average 44% from the peak over 71 weeks. The current STI fall of 29% from the peak has taken 46 weeks, suggesting a further 10-15%fall and several months to go. From the Oct '07 STI peak, the 3 banks have outperformed the STI 8%-16%. In the previous 4 bear cycles, banks sold off at the end, giving up their late cycle outperformance, but marking the bottom for the STI's fall.
Assessing downside earnings risks:
The catalyst for a sell-off is earnings risk as the economy endures a tough next 12-18 months. GDP contraction is now a reality in several countries. Citi Economist Kit Wei Zheng has cut 2009E Singapore GDP growth to +3.6% (2008E +4.1%). For banks, net interest margins should weaken, while analysts may underestimate the extent of provision charge increases. Fees should slow on weak markets-related income, slowdown in retail spending and tourism. We have cut FY09/10 forecasts 7%-9%; we are now 12%-19% below consensus.
Finding the banks' valuation trough:
The difficulty for investors to sell banks is that they are close to trough on PERs. But as in past cycles, if a downturn hurts earnings visibility, prices may break down through normal PER supports, and test the lower P/Book troughs. This bank sell-off will likely mark the bottom for the STI.
The Beauty of a Bear Market
On hindsight, it would have been extremely obvious to a casual observer and a reasonable person that the market would turn bearish this year. That is the problem in general with predictions - they are usually extremely accurate only by looking at history ! However, this post is not to lambast people who attempt to time market cycles (some do get it fairly accurate but are often unable to repeat the "stellar" performance); but rather, it is a post to illustrate how one should take full advantage of a bear market to look for bargains.
I read, with some amusement no doubt, the views of various experts who were asked their opinions on the current market condition. There were varied opinions (as usual) ranging from the optimistic (the bear will only last 12 months and the market is also bottomed out) to the wildly pessimistic (we will get "buried" under a pile of earnings downgrades). It was all very amusing seeing people try to predict the market and to second-guess the economic environment and how long the current sub-prime crisis will last. The fact is that no one knows, yet everyone has an opinion and tries to make an "educated guess", in the process trying to sound intelligent and that they know exactly what's going on. I am not shooting down the opinions of famed investors; it's just that sometimes they should just admit they haven't a clue as to when this will end - I think that sounds more honest !
The beauty of a bear market will only be apparent to people who relish a bear market (usually value investors lah). Most other people see bear markets as something akin to the end of the world, depicting scenarios where people jump off buildings, declare bankruptcy and live the rest of their wretched lives in abject poverty. Such is the media spotlight which is thrown onto bear markets and the media's portrayal of such events. The doom and gloom can get so pervasive that you can hardly find much reason to cheer; in fact everyone is so enthusiastically predicting the end of the world that they fail to realize that opportunities abound to purchase cheaply. In fact, an investor's temperament should be the same regardless of whether the market is in bull or bear mode. He always has to emphasize margin of safety, as well as preservation of capital. Having such an attitude is important as it helps to minimize losses (this is in contrast to people who seek only to "maximize gains").
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham aptly mentions this point. Jason Zweig who wrote the footnotes for his book writes that without bear markets to bring valuations down to reasonable levels, no investor would be able to purchase with a decent margin of safety. Hence, bear markets are essential for investors and should be welcome with open arms. Bull markets are often dreaded by investors as they do not present suitable opportunities for investment.
That said, one must still be extremely selective in evaluating which company to invest in and to ensure that all aspects of the company are analyzed before a purchase is made. This is because in a bear market, everything looks cheap but the problem is that valuations may not actually BE cheap. During times of economic uncertainty and rising inflation, bear markets will usually occur. This has the effect of weighing on earnings of almost all companies and will throw their growth plans into disarray. Only companies which can pass on the higher costs or find a way around the difficulties will eventually emerge relatively unscathed. Thus, the "cheapness" of a company does not preclude one from investigative work to understand the nature of the business and whether it will be affected by higher costs and/or other economic factors. As a result, finding a worthwhile company to invest in can be a painstaking job and should not be considered simple.
Which is why Warren Buffett said that "Investing is easy, but not simple". The premise of investing is easy to understand, but the actual process to evaluate companies, churn numbers and to understand the workings of the economic environment and how it influenced a company are not simple. Therefore, every investor should work hard so that his rewards are well-deserved !
I read, with some amusement no doubt, the views of various experts who were asked their opinions on the current market condition. There were varied opinions (as usual) ranging from the optimistic (the bear will only last 12 months and the market is also bottomed out) to the wildly pessimistic (we will get "buried" under a pile of earnings downgrades). It was all very amusing seeing people try to predict the market and to second-guess the economic environment and how long the current sub-prime crisis will last. The fact is that no one knows, yet everyone has an opinion and tries to make an "educated guess", in the process trying to sound intelligent and that they know exactly what's going on. I am not shooting down the opinions of famed investors; it's just that sometimes they should just admit they haven't a clue as to when this will end - I think that sounds more honest !
The beauty of a bear market will only be apparent to people who relish a bear market (usually value investors lah). Most other people see bear markets as something akin to the end of the world, depicting scenarios where people jump off buildings, declare bankruptcy and live the rest of their wretched lives in abject poverty. Such is the media spotlight which is thrown onto bear markets and the media's portrayal of such events. The doom and gloom can get so pervasive that you can hardly find much reason to cheer; in fact everyone is so enthusiastically predicting the end of the world that they fail to realize that opportunities abound to purchase cheaply. In fact, an investor's temperament should be the same regardless of whether the market is in bull or bear mode. He always has to emphasize margin of safety, as well as preservation of capital. Having such an attitude is important as it helps to minimize losses (this is in contrast to people who seek only to "maximize gains").
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham aptly mentions this point. Jason Zweig who wrote the footnotes for his book writes that without bear markets to bring valuations down to reasonable levels, no investor would be able to purchase with a decent margin of safety. Hence, bear markets are essential for investors and should be welcome with open arms. Bull markets are often dreaded by investors as they do not present suitable opportunities for investment.
That said, one must still be extremely selective in evaluating which company to invest in and to ensure that all aspects of the company are analyzed before a purchase is made. This is because in a bear market, everything looks cheap but the problem is that valuations may not actually BE cheap. During times of economic uncertainty and rising inflation, bear markets will usually occur. This has the effect of weighing on earnings of almost all companies and will throw their growth plans into disarray. Only companies which can pass on the higher costs or find a way around the difficulties will eventually emerge relatively unscathed. Thus, the "cheapness" of a company does not preclude one from investigative work to understand the nature of the business and whether it will be affected by higher costs and/or other economic factors. As a result, finding a worthwhile company to invest in can be a painstaking job and should not be considered simple.
Which is why Warren Buffett said that "Investing is easy, but not simple". The premise of investing is easy to understand, but the actual process to evaluate companies, churn numbers and to understand the workings of the economic environment and how it influenced a company are not simple. Therefore, every investor should work hard so that his rewards are well-deserved !
中國股民唔識過冬
8月24日，周日。上周房利美及房貸美跌幅達52％，因為市場認為由政府接管係鼻哥窿擔遮之事。
Byron R. Wien係Pequot Capital Management嘅主要投資策略員。佢1965年成為證券分析員，曾經係摩根士丹利主要策略員，2005年年底先加入家吓嘅公司。佢認為市場環球化後，投資策略應改變，仲話1945到1970年代，美國無論喺經濟、政治及軍事上都係世界領袖；七十年代開始日本同西德冒起，令世界經濟漸變成三頭馬車；八十年代中國、跟住係印度同其後嘅金磚四國。日本成為最先進入GDP年增長率難超過3％嘅國家，之後係歐洲，家吓係美國；未來五年甚至十年，美國GDP增長率再難超過每年3％了。1982到2007年美國透過金融服務，帶嚟再膨脹時代，今年起取而代之係低增長、低P/E、低利率及較高通脹率；情況有D似1966至82年嘅美國。未來美國經濟甚至可能只係停滯不前，連通脹率都唔高，因經濟放緩最終令CPI增幅下降。估計後市油價喺100至115美元上落；原材料價因中國及印度需求大而無法大跌，進入咗高價牛皮。美國因次按危機令消費需求下降，經濟停滯不前，結果係好又好唔到去邊、壞又壞唔到去邊，進入咗Lazy（懶惰）、Hazy（迷惘）甚至有D Crazy（癲癲地）嘅時期。
貝南奇呃唔到人
7月美國房屋銷售跌至十年新低，可供出售新屋及二手樓共五百四十三萬五千間（6月份係五百三十九萬間），估計地產業衰退可伸展到明年，同期出現資金不足及借貸唔易，令樓按利率上升，加上薪金收入加幅有限，喺可見將來認為樓價可上升係不切實際嘅諗法。今年3月新屋銷售五十二萬六千間，係1991年以嚟最低，估計8月份係五十二萬五千間；二手樓銷售估計係四百九十一萬間，好接近6月份嘅數據（十年低位）；上月新屋建築較一年前少11％，係十七年內最低。
1997年7月之後，無論股票或物業市場，再唔係投資者嘅天堂，變成Rentier嘅遊樂場。股票市場或物業市場早已唔再存在投資者（Investors），取而代之嘅係贏家同輸家。贏家及輸家同投資者最大嘅分別係佢地都係冇耐性嘅人，令長線投資唔受歡迎（Buy and hold policy已行唔通），炒賣由中短線取代。例如1997年7至8月如果你唔減持股票及房地產，事後證明你係輸家。1998年年底前應重新投入科網股，然後喺2000年減持；2003年年中又重新買入股票及房地產；去年10月股市見頂，今年第二季起樓價受壓。衍生產品、期指、期權及牛熊證充斥市場，早就令金融市場變成戰場。用嘅係聰明炸彈，即必須命中目標，以及喺最短時間內將敵人殲滅，再唔係由士兵們寸土必爭。市場需要嘅投資策略再唔係點樣喺三十年內致富，而係點樣喺三、五年內發達（甚至三、五年亦好長，最好係三、五個月）。
2000年美國科網股泡沫爆煲後，格蛇利用過去二十年出任聯儲局主席所建立嘅威信，喺2001年「九一一．慘劇」後首次唔遵守雪茄伏嘅戒條——即利率唔再高過CPI 2厘。初期大家睇唔清，2003年美國仍可以出現經濟復甦但CPI唔升嘅局面。格蛇知道呃人一時易、呃人一世難，由2004年6月起將利率逐步推高到2006年5.25厘，可惜貝南奇喺去年9月到今年4月又將利率降至2厘。呢次大家唔再受騙，結果今年CPI大升及GDP增長率大跌。
美國政府好難頂
貝爾斯登事件後係兩房，聯儲局點樣應付呢個困局？過去唔少主權基金曾大量投資喺有問題嘅金融機構上，點知愈買愈平；呢次連韓國發展銀行亦計劃入股雷曼兄弟，令雷曼兄弟上周五嘅股價止跌回升；道指亦上升。假設韓國發展銀行願意以雷曼賬面值50％收購，不但令雷曼上周五上升15％，收報15.78美元，因家吓市價只係雷曼賬面值37％（或真正淨值48％）。韓國銀行收購雷曼後，後者唔使被迫賤賣資產，對市場有利；雷曼貸款主要同樓按有關，係美國四大投資銀行中最細嗰間，至今股價由高位回落咗80％。
股聖畢非德認為兩房Game Over，已冇絲毫投資價值，家吓仍能生存嘅理由係因為聯邦政府支持。佢過去曾係兩房大股東之一，2001年起開始減持。今天房利美股價較高峰時回落咗95％（一年前市價70美元）；房貸美股價亦回落咗91％。房利美今天市值只得52億美元，房貸美就得20億美元。前者喺三十年代由羅斯福總統下令成立，目的係協助振興經濟；後者喺1970年成立，目的係協助美國經濟從越戰打擊中復甦。股聖最高峰時曾揸住房貸美8.5％，但2001年起兩房嘅投資策略令佢感到不安。上周五房利美股價先跌10％後反彈，最終升3.09％，見5美元；房貸美再跌11.08％，見2.81美元。上周五穆廸投資公司將兩房債券進一步降級，由A1降至Baa3，財政狀況由B減降至D+。兩房最終會唔會步Indy Mac後塵？甚至貝南奇亦承認金融風暴未過，因為樓價回落至今未見底。正常嘅情況下美國每年有八十萬個住房新買家，理由係結婚、離婚及子女長大等因素。2006年一年房地產交易量達七百萬間，其中二百萬間係新屋，可見情況係幾咁唔正常。2005至07年共有一千四百萬人買樓，其中一半左右樓價首期係利用另類方法支付，例如先買後畀錢或首兩年只畀利息，兩年後先正式供樓；估計其中三百五十萬人因無力供樓而放棄。未來點樣消化呢三百五十間房屋，甚至未來五年美國將新屋建築量降至每年八十萬間或以下（較2006年建屋量少50％）？
如兩房go under，5萬億美元房貸壓力將落喺聯邦政府肩上；政府如果唔承擔，美國銀行業便遭殃，甚至FDIC亦頂不住。Institutional Risk Analytics（呢間公司責任係分析各銀行健康狀況）執行總裁Chris Whalen估計，今年8月到明年7月將有一百間銀行被接管，大部分係中小型，涉及總資產8500億美元。FDIC只有500億美元資金，接管Indy Mac已用咗200億美元，日後接管8500億美元資產，需850億美元或以上資金（假設10％係呆壞賬），即FDIC需額外500億美元注資先可應付。新總統首要任務係向FDIC注資或取消對10萬美元存款保證。到時如果政府同時須為5萬億美元房貸作擔保，你話點頂？今天地區性銀行好似Key Corp、National City等發債，市場要求利率係12厘到15厘。甚至財政狀況良好嘅銀行好似摩根大通咁，最近佢發6億美元優先股，利率亦要8.75厘；富國銀行發16億美元優先股，利率8.85厘；雷曼兄弟11至13厘；美林11至12厘；摩根士丹利9至10厘；花旗9.5厘至10.5厘；兩房15厘。喺高息壓力下，點樣發債集資？美國金融風暴不但未見平息，反而愈打愈大，一如上周嘅鸚鵡颱風，須由八號改掛九號風球。投資者們請振作起嚟，因為最困難嘅日子仲喺前面！
金價低位見幾多？
上周五貝南奇為2厘利率辯護，佢認為7月份CPI升幅5.6％係短暫情況。上周本欄已解釋聯儲局點樣利用減息去支持股市平均P/E喺十四至十五倍之間（如企業純利增長率再跌，家吓嘅P/E仍會下降）。
過去六年（2002至07年）美元滙價跌幅超過40％，係造成金價喺今年3月升穿1000美元，以及油價今年7月見145美元嘅理由。如果美元止跌回升，可令金價、油價及CPI增長率回落。反之，如果美國CPI增長率保持喺5%至7％水平，美元滙價將進一步回落及商品價又再狂升。未來油價每桶見80美元定係止跌回升？彭博訪問咗二十九位分析員。其中十六位（佔55％）話會升；七位（佔24％）話變化唔大；其餘就睇跌。最後邊一個方向先啱？我地不妨由另一角度去睇問題：通脹（唔係CPI）代表流通貨幣增加。1972至82年美國K上升87.6％及L上升141.5％；美元供應迅速增加，最終令CPI大升。過去十年美國K上升30.3％及L上升87.6％，升幅唔及1972至82年。美國收支赤字喺2006年佔GDP 6.2％時最高，今年（美林估計）約5％，明年再減少至3.5％。即美國收支赤字佔GDP比重在下降中，而CPI係落後指數。換言之，貝南奇估計CPI短期見頂有一定數據支持，佢嘅發言上周五令油價跌咗6美元，係2004年12月以嚟最大一天跌幅，10月期油見114.59美元；白金每盎斯跌17.6美元；小麥跌3.4％；銅價跌1.4％。至今為止未能肯定金價由今年3月及油價由今年7月回落，係調整市定係牛市結束。
金價曾由1974年12月200美元回落到1976年8月100美元，到1978年先重返200美元，然後喺1980年1月見850美元。呢次金價由今年3月1030美元回落，最低可見幾多？775美元定係730美元，有人甚至話見641.5美元先完成調整，然後一如1976年8月至80年1月，進入黃金上升第二波。
《星期日電訊報》報道，中國人行入股英國保誠投資，成為二十五大機構投資者之一；同時購入Old Mutual（英國第三大保險公司）股份，睇嚟中國資金繼續走出去。
上周大行報告披露4000億元（人民幣．下同）救市計劃，相信係3700億元經濟刺激方案嘅誤傳；其中包括新增支出2200億元及減稅計劃1500億元。新增支出如社保支出450億元、農業460億元、科技教育380億元、公共建設350億元、國企補貼80億元、能源及大宗商品入口補貼280億元等。減稅計劃包括提高個人所得稅起點、出口退稅及中小企業退稅等。救市不如救經濟。1998年9月香港特區政府曾動用千億港元救股市，因巧遇俄羅斯危機美國減息，令港股止跌回升（同期新加坡政府並冇救市，但新加坡股市一樣上升。證明港股上升理由係美國減息而唔係特區政府救市）。其後香港經濟點？咪一樣要衰到2003年上半年先復甦！政黨當年批評特區政府救市唔救人。2003年下半年香港經濟受惠於中央政府一連串振興香港經濟嘅方案，好似CEPA及自由行，加上2003年4月起美國經濟復甦。2003年下半年香港雖然冇救市計劃，但港股升完可以再升。
救經濟方向正確
中央政府呢次出招穩定經濟而唔救市，方向係正確（只要經濟好，股市遲早好。反之，經濟差，股市遲早跌）。作為政府，應救經濟唔係救市。中國證監會負責人表示小非解禁今年7月底止已達56％，未來利用積極方法協助大小非逐步變成全流動，同時對市場造成干擾愈少愈好。
去年10月滬深A股P/E點解咁高？係由供求唔平衡造成。去年10月A股股價唔係反映公司業績而係反映供應不足，情況好似1973年3月港股或1989年12月日股。隨着供應量上升，股價唔再反映供求因素而係公司業績因此大跌。1973年3月香港政府採取不干預政策，令恒指喺二十二個月內跌幅91％；日本政府1990至2003年再三干預，但日股跌咗十三年，跌幅80.5％。長痛定短痛好？香港選短痛，喺二十二個月內畀股市跌個痛快；日本選長痛，就跌足十三年，至今股市仲死氣沉沉。滬深三百至今見回落十個月，跌幅達61％。你又點睇?!目前滬深三百平均P/E十七倍唔算貴，但同各國比較絕對唔平，即短期或有反彈，但相信未見底。
A股無論係二次發售機制或發行可換股債券交換，都唔可以解決大小非嘅問題，唯一作用係減慢市場下跌速度，卻無法保證市場持續上漲。至於經濟刺激方案又係遠水救唔到近火，短期A股下跌壓力仲好大。滬深三百肯定進入了隆冬，但大部分投資者卻冇心理準備過冬，唔少仍着住泳褲，咁點樣捱過呢個冬季？內地散戶仲未學曉止蝕唔止賺，更加唔識溝上唔溝落，喺跌市初期不但未止蝕（例如跌15％要止蝕、跌20％便不用再問理由全止蝕）。喺過去十個月跌市中甚至溝落；至於咩嘢係三七分，唔少內地散戶連聽都未聽過。
冬季過後一定係春回大地，只着泳褲嘅散戶們點樣捱過呢個寒冬？去年唔少人相信奧運效應而唔賣股票。今年8月8日奧運開幕，滬深三百卻由2719點回落到8月19日嘅2273點，跌幅達16.4％，上周五收報2404點。周日奧運閉幕後，周一滬深A股又點？大家最後會明白，奧運只係體育盛事，同股市關係唔大。
面對能源價格、原材料價格、人民幣滙價、工資及通脹率上升等多項不利因素，加上去年8月美國次按危機，中國經濟今年可能由快速增長進入增長減速嘅拐點，整體面對結構性調整，由出口導向轉為內需刺激。呢段青黃不接期需時幾耐？謝國忠估計未來十二個月出口佔中國GDP比重將一直下降。國家信息中心經濟預測部首席經濟師祝寶良認為，企業投資下半年增速會放緩，但政府投資下半年會加速，因為唔少大型基建上馬。
消費方面，耶魯大學管理學院金融經濟教授陳志武認為，如果要擴大內需，政府應學習美國政府退稅，同時削減增值稅及增加社會保障。
至於油價方面，未低於80美元前，對中國經濟幫助唔大，因為中國境內汽油售價仍低過80美元。奧運之後成品油價、電價及煤價加快同國際能源價格接軌，將令CPI居高不下。換言之，經濟春天肯定會來，但着泳褲嘅人有幾多個可以捱過寒冬又係另一回事。
Byron R. Wien係Pequot Capital Management嘅主要投資策略員。佢1965年成為證券分析員，曾經係摩根士丹利主要策略員，2005年年底先加入家吓嘅公司。佢認為市場環球化後，投資策略應改變，仲話1945到1970年代，美國無論喺經濟、政治及軍事上都係世界領袖；七十年代開始日本同西德冒起，令世界經濟漸變成三頭馬車；八十年代中國、跟住係印度同其後嘅金磚四國。日本成為最先進入GDP年增長率難超過3％嘅國家，之後係歐洲，家吓係美國；未來五年甚至十年，美國GDP增長率再難超過每年3％了。1982到2007年美國透過金融服務，帶嚟再膨脹時代，今年起取而代之係低增長、低P/E、低利率及較高通脹率；情況有D似1966至82年嘅美國。未來美國經濟甚至可能只係停滯不前，連通脹率都唔高，因經濟放緩最終令CPI增幅下降。估計後市油價喺100至115美元上落；原材料價因中國及印度需求大而無法大跌，進入咗高價牛皮。美國因次按危機令消費需求下降，經濟停滯不前，結果係好又好唔到去邊、壞又壞唔到去邊，進入咗Lazy（懶惰）、Hazy（迷惘）甚至有D Crazy（癲癲地）嘅時期。
貝南奇呃唔到人
7月美國房屋銷售跌至十年新低，可供出售新屋及二手樓共五百四十三萬五千間（6月份係五百三十九萬間），估計地產業衰退可伸展到明年，同期出現資金不足及借貸唔易，令樓按利率上升，加上薪金收入加幅有限，喺可見將來認為樓價可上升係不切實際嘅諗法。今年3月新屋銷售五十二萬六千間，係1991年以嚟最低，估計8月份係五十二萬五千間；二手樓銷售估計係四百九十一萬間，好接近6月份嘅數據（十年低位）；上月新屋建築較一年前少11％，係十七年內最低。
1997年7月之後，無論股票或物業市場，再唔係投資者嘅天堂，變成Rentier嘅遊樂場。股票市場或物業市場早已唔再存在投資者（Investors），取而代之嘅係贏家同輸家。贏家及輸家同投資者最大嘅分別係佢地都係冇耐性嘅人，令長線投資唔受歡迎（Buy and hold policy已行唔通），炒賣由中短線取代。例如1997年7至8月如果你唔減持股票及房地產，事後證明你係輸家。1998年年底前應重新投入科網股，然後喺2000年減持；2003年年中又重新買入股票及房地產；去年10月股市見頂，今年第二季起樓價受壓。衍生產品、期指、期權及牛熊證充斥市場，早就令金融市場變成戰場。用嘅係聰明炸彈，即必須命中目標，以及喺最短時間內將敵人殲滅，再唔係由士兵們寸土必爭。市場需要嘅投資策略再唔係點樣喺三十年內致富，而係點樣喺三、五年內發達（甚至三、五年亦好長，最好係三、五個月）。
2000年美國科網股泡沫爆煲後，格蛇利用過去二十年出任聯儲局主席所建立嘅威信，喺2001年「九一一．慘劇」後首次唔遵守雪茄伏嘅戒條——即利率唔再高過CPI 2厘。初期大家睇唔清，2003年美國仍可以出現經濟復甦但CPI唔升嘅局面。格蛇知道呃人一時易、呃人一世難，由2004年6月起將利率逐步推高到2006年5.25厘，可惜貝南奇喺去年9月到今年4月又將利率降至2厘。呢次大家唔再受騙，結果今年CPI大升及GDP增長率大跌。
美國政府好難頂
貝爾斯登事件後係兩房，聯儲局點樣應付呢個困局？過去唔少主權基金曾大量投資喺有問題嘅金融機構上，點知愈買愈平；呢次連韓國發展銀行亦計劃入股雷曼兄弟，令雷曼兄弟上周五嘅股價止跌回升；道指亦上升。假設韓國發展銀行願意以雷曼賬面值50％收購，不但令雷曼上周五上升15％，收報15.78美元，因家吓市價只係雷曼賬面值37％（或真正淨值48％）。韓國銀行收購雷曼後，後者唔使被迫賤賣資產，對市場有利；雷曼貸款主要同樓按有關，係美國四大投資銀行中最細嗰間，至今股價由高位回落咗80％。
股聖畢非德認為兩房Game Over，已冇絲毫投資價值，家吓仍能生存嘅理由係因為聯邦政府支持。佢過去曾係兩房大股東之一，2001年起開始減持。今天房利美股價較高峰時回落咗95％（一年前市價70美元）；房貸美股價亦回落咗91％。房利美今天市值只得52億美元，房貸美就得20億美元。前者喺三十年代由羅斯福總統下令成立，目的係協助振興經濟；後者喺1970年成立，目的係協助美國經濟從越戰打擊中復甦。股聖最高峰時曾揸住房貸美8.5％，但2001年起兩房嘅投資策略令佢感到不安。上周五房利美股價先跌10％後反彈，最終升3.09％，見5美元；房貸美再跌11.08％，見2.81美元。上周五穆廸投資公司將兩房債券進一步降級，由A1降至Baa3，財政狀況由B減降至D+。兩房最終會唔會步Indy Mac後塵？甚至貝南奇亦承認金融風暴未過，因為樓價回落至今未見底。正常嘅情況下美國每年有八十萬個住房新買家，理由係結婚、離婚及子女長大等因素。2006年一年房地產交易量達七百萬間，其中二百萬間係新屋，可見情況係幾咁唔正常。2005至07年共有一千四百萬人買樓，其中一半左右樓價首期係利用另類方法支付，例如先買後畀錢或首兩年只畀利息，兩年後先正式供樓；估計其中三百五十萬人因無力供樓而放棄。未來點樣消化呢三百五十間房屋，甚至未來五年美國將新屋建築量降至每年八十萬間或以下（較2006年建屋量少50％）？
如兩房go under，5萬億美元房貸壓力將落喺聯邦政府肩上；政府如果唔承擔，美國銀行業便遭殃，甚至FDIC亦頂不住。Institutional Risk Analytics（呢間公司責任係分析各銀行健康狀況）執行總裁Chris Whalen估計，今年8月到明年7月將有一百間銀行被接管，大部分係中小型，涉及總資產8500億美元。FDIC只有500億美元資金，接管Indy Mac已用咗200億美元，日後接管8500億美元資產，需850億美元或以上資金（假設10％係呆壞賬），即FDIC需額外500億美元注資先可應付。新總統首要任務係向FDIC注資或取消對10萬美元存款保證。到時如果政府同時須為5萬億美元房貸作擔保，你話點頂？今天地區性銀行好似Key Corp、National City等發債，市場要求利率係12厘到15厘。甚至財政狀況良好嘅銀行好似摩根大通咁，最近佢發6億美元優先股，利率亦要8.75厘；富國銀行發16億美元優先股，利率8.85厘；雷曼兄弟11至13厘；美林11至12厘；摩根士丹利9至10厘；花旗9.5厘至10.5厘；兩房15厘。喺高息壓力下，點樣發債集資？美國金融風暴不但未見平息，反而愈打愈大，一如上周嘅鸚鵡颱風，須由八號改掛九號風球。投資者們請振作起嚟，因為最困難嘅日子仲喺前面！
金價低位見幾多？
上周五貝南奇為2厘利率辯護，佢認為7月份CPI升幅5.6％係短暫情況。上周本欄已解釋聯儲局點樣利用減息去支持股市平均P/E喺十四至十五倍之間（如企業純利增長率再跌，家吓嘅P/E仍會下降）。
過去六年（2002至07年）美元滙價跌幅超過40％，係造成金價喺今年3月升穿1000美元，以及油價今年7月見145美元嘅理由。如果美元止跌回升，可令金價、油價及CPI增長率回落。反之，如果美國CPI增長率保持喺5%至7％水平，美元滙價將進一步回落及商品價又再狂升。未來油價每桶見80美元定係止跌回升？彭博訪問咗二十九位分析員。其中十六位（佔55％）話會升；七位（佔24％）話變化唔大；其餘就睇跌。最後邊一個方向先啱？我地不妨由另一角度去睇問題：通脹（唔係CPI）代表流通貨幣增加。1972至82年美國K上升87.6％及L上升141.5％；美元供應迅速增加，最終令CPI大升。過去十年美國K上升30.3％及L上升87.6％，升幅唔及1972至82年。美國收支赤字喺2006年佔GDP 6.2％時最高，今年（美林估計）約5％，明年再減少至3.5％。即美國收支赤字佔GDP比重在下降中，而CPI係落後指數。換言之，貝南奇估計CPI短期見頂有一定數據支持，佢嘅發言上周五令油價跌咗6美元，係2004年12月以嚟最大一天跌幅，10月期油見114.59美元；白金每盎斯跌17.6美元；小麥跌3.4％；銅價跌1.4％。至今為止未能肯定金價由今年3月及油價由今年7月回落，係調整市定係牛市結束。
金價曾由1974年12月200美元回落到1976年8月100美元，到1978年先重返200美元，然後喺1980年1月見850美元。呢次金價由今年3月1030美元回落，最低可見幾多？775美元定係730美元，有人甚至話見641.5美元先完成調整，然後一如1976年8月至80年1月，進入黃金上升第二波。
《星期日電訊報》報道，中國人行入股英國保誠投資，成為二十五大機構投資者之一；同時購入Old Mutual（英國第三大保險公司）股份，睇嚟中國資金繼續走出去。
上周大行報告披露4000億元（人民幣．下同）救市計劃，相信係3700億元經濟刺激方案嘅誤傳；其中包括新增支出2200億元及減稅計劃1500億元。新增支出如社保支出450億元、農業460億元、科技教育380億元、公共建設350億元、國企補貼80億元、能源及大宗商品入口補貼280億元等。減稅計劃包括提高個人所得稅起點、出口退稅及中小企業退稅等。救市不如救經濟。1998年9月香港特區政府曾動用千億港元救股市，因巧遇俄羅斯危機美國減息，令港股止跌回升（同期新加坡政府並冇救市，但新加坡股市一樣上升。證明港股上升理由係美國減息而唔係特區政府救市）。其後香港經濟點？咪一樣要衰到2003年上半年先復甦！政黨當年批評特區政府救市唔救人。2003年下半年香港經濟受惠於中央政府一連串振興香港經濟嘅方案，好似CEPA及自由行，加上2003年4月起美國經濟復甦。2003年下半年香港雖然冇救市計劃，但港股升完可以再升。
救經濟方向正確
中央政府呢次出招穩定經濟而唔救市，方向係正確（只要經濟好，股市遲早好。反之，經濟差，股市遲早跌）。作為政府，應救經濟唔係救市。中國證監會負責人表示小非解禁今年7月底止已達56％，未來利用積極方法協助大小非逐步變成全流動，同時對市場造成干擾愈少愈好。
去年10月滬深A股P/E點解咁高？係由供求唔平衡造成。去年10月A股股價唔係反映公司業績而係反映供應不足，情況好似1973年3月港股或1989年12月日股。隨着供應量上升，股價唔再反映供求因素而係公司業績因此大跌。1973年3月香港政府採取不干預政策，令恒指喺二十二個月內跌幅91％；日本政府1990至2003年再三干預，但日股跌咗十三年，跌幅80.5％。長痛定短痛好？香港選短痛，喺二十二個月內畀股市跌個痛快；日本選長痛，就跌足十三年，至今股市仲死氣沉沉。滬深三百至今見回落十個月，跌幅達61％。你又點睇?!目前滬深三百平均P/E十七倍唔算貴，但同各國比較絕對唔平，即短期或有反彈，但相信未見底。
A股無論係二次發售機制或發行可換股債券交換，都唔可以解決大小非嘅問題，唯一作用係減慢市場下跌速度，卻無法保證市場持續上漲。至於經濟刺激方案又係遠水救唔到近火，短期A股下跌壓力仲好大。滬深三百肯定進入了隆冬，但大部分投資者卻冇心理準備過冬，唔少仍着住泳褲，咁點樣捱過呢個冬季？內地散戶仲未學曉止蝕唔止賺，更加唔識溝上唔溝落，喺跌市初期不但未止蝕（例如跌15％要止蝕、跌20％便不用再問理由全止蝕）。喺過去十個月跌市中甚至溝落；至於咩嘢係三七分，唔少內地散戶連聽都未聽過。
冬季過後一定係春回大地，只着泳褲嘅散戶們點樣捱過呢個寒冬？去年唔少人相信奧運效應而唔賣股票。今年8月8日奧運開幕，滬深三百卻由2719點回落到8月19日嘅2273點，跌幅達16.4％，上周五收報2404點。周日奧運閉幕後，周一滬深A股又點？大家最後會明白，奧運只係體育盛事，同股市關係唔大。
面對能源價格、原材料價格、人民幣滙價、工資及通脹率上升等多項不利因素，加上去年8月美國次按危機，中國經濟今年可能由快速增長進入增長減速嘅拐點，整體面對結構性調整，由出口導向轉為內需刺激。呢段青黃不接期需時幾耐？謝國忠估計未來十二個月出口佔中國GDP比重將一直下降。國家信息中心經濟預測部首席經濟師祝寶良認為，企業投資下半年增速會放緩，但政府投資下半年會加速，因為唔少大型基建上馬。
消費方面，耶魯大學管理學院金融經濟教授陳志武認為，如果要擴大內需，政府應學習美國政府退稅，同時削減增值稅及增加社會保障。
至於油價方面，未低於80美元前，對中國經濟幫助唔大，因為中國境內汽油售價仍低過80美元。奧運之後成品油價、電價及煤價加快同國際能源價格接軌，將令CPI居高不下。換言之，經濟春天肯定會來，但着泳褲嘅人有幾多個可以捱過寒冬又係另一回事。
炒奧運幣苦過DD
8月25日，周一。恒生指數升712.73，收21104.79；成交556.15億元，8月期指升809點，收21190點；9月期指升813點，收21113點。過去出現嘅期指倒掛現象今天消失，恢復番正常情況，即期指較現貨略高（只能略高理由係因為9月有唔少股份派息除息，對期指揸家不利）。
工商銀行（1398）升4.3％，收5.34元，里昂推介目標價6.25元；建行（939）升3.7％，報6.19元，因半年純利587億元人民幣；網通（906）升4.2％，報21元；中遠太平洋（1199）升4.5％，報10.64元，因上半年利潤升11％；平安保險（2318）升4.9％，報53.9元，外傳佢喺度洽購廣州商業銀行；兗州煤業（1171）升5.7％，報12.34元，因上半年利潤升一點六倍。
油價下跌嘅真正原因
花旗推介和黃（013），估計今年每股獲利4.39元，較去年減少38.8％，P/E十六點一倍，目標價94元；亦推介長江實業（001），估計今年每股獲利8.83元，減少9.1％，P/E十一點四倍，目標價13.7元；大連港（2880）估計今年每股獲利21仙，與去年接近，P/E十六倍，目標價5.9元；上海電氣（2727）估計今年每股獲利25.1仙，升5.8％，P/E十點五倍，目標價4元；工商銀行估計今年每股獲利38.6仙，上升58％，P/E十一點六倍，目標價6.3元；國壽（2628）半年純利下降31.9％，至158億元人民幣。
滬深三百指數微跌0.18％，收2400.55。因內地股市重挫，午後國壽、中國平安及工商銀行股價下挫；十七天嘅奧運結束了，2006年推出嘅奧運金銀紀念幣更由奧運進入最後倒數時嘅每套30000元人民幣，下跌到最近16000元人民幣，第二批推出更跌至11000元人民幣，第三批市價10000元人民幣。炒奧運金銀紀念幣者，家吓真係苦過DD。
港幣奧運紀念鈔亦由每張280元跌至138元，澳門幣奧運紀念鈔跌幅更由400元澳門幣跌到90元澳門幣。奧運人民幣紀念鈔跌幅最少只下跌30％，市價係每張1000元人民幣。情況有D似1997年香港回歸紀念金銀幣，香港回歸後亦跌到七個一皮。
炒奧運紀念幣者全部跌眼鏡，至於內地股市又點？期待中嘅奧運後效應周一未有現身。
近日印尼煤礦股股價大跌，例如Bumi Resources由去年6月至今回落36％（印尼係全球最大嘅煤出口國），係咪代表煤價已見頂？
油價亦由7月份每桶147美元急跌，商品價格亦大幅回落，係咪代表全球GDP由高增長期進入低增長期？根據Thomson Reuters估計，標普五百未來P/E只得十二點九倍（7月中一度見十一點六三倍），上述P/E只有1988年出現過（即股災後）。1968年至家吓過去三十年美股平均P/E係十八點三五倍，點解美股近期P/E會咁低？上述低P/E過去只有喺高利率期才出現，但今年4月起利率只得2厘，令人擔心依家低P/E正正反映世界經濟陷入低增長期，呢個先係油價及原材料價格下跌嘅背後真正理由。
中國靠內需保GDP增長？
2002年開始回落嘅美元，踏入今年7月係咪開始止跌回升？外滙專家認為，依家美元滙價最少偏低30％；1995至2001年美元亦曾經轉強。美國銀行分析員認為，美元弱勢喺今年7月結束，因美國人唔再向海外投資，反而將資金調回美國，全球資金正回流美國。英鎊見1.84美元係2006年7月以嚟最低；歐羅見1.47美元（上周一度觸及六個月低位1.463美元）。股聖畢非德話佢過去雖然睇淡美元，但冇拋空美元，股聖一言令周一美元上升如虎添翼。
中國向世全界呈現最豪華嘅奧運會，令人有D奢侈感覺。相信呢個係任何國家（或人）脫貧後必有嘅心態（誇富心態），可以話喺無可厚非。隨着國家（或人）漸漸習慣富有，呢個心態自然收斂。1973年我老曹結婚擺酒時亦筵開七十席，家吓望番轉頭，連我老曹亦奇怪當年點解會咁戇居？依家出席人地嘅誇富宴時，間中亦會由心裏面笑出嚟；人必須經一事、才長一智。
最豪華嘅奧運會結束後，又返番去經濟；中國未來經濟的確有D令人迷惘。由出口導向型經濟轉為內需，最成功係香港；只因八十年代巧遇中國改革開放政策，令香港製造業成功轉入內地，香港經濟改為服務珠三角製造業為主；反觀台灣九十年代經濟轉型，至今仲未算成功。中國經濟最大王牌（廉價成本）慢慢冇埋，可唔可以透過內需長期保持中國GDP 8％或以上高增長？依家中國已面對能源危機、資源短缺及熟練工人供應唔足，加上人民幣升值，歐美日等國家GDP陷入低增長期，中國出口增長率肯定進入拐點，可唔可以利用內需去取代出口增長率，而達到長期GDP「保八」嘅目標？
貧富差距拉大
改革開放三十年，中國整體經濟富起嚟，卻先出現其他資本主義國家嘅貧富差距擴大問題；近年由胡錦濤提出三農政策目的係減少貧富間差距以免造成社會不安。
過去大家相信教育可以改變社會上貧富差距；第二次世界大戰後美國情況的確係咁，但到咗1980年代嘅美國、1990年代嘅日本及1997年後嘅香港，教育雖然愈嚟愈普及，但社會上貧富差距不但未見改善，反而係進一步惡化。根據哈佛大學Goldin及Katz研究，美國1947至70年代後期，教育普及令中產階級冒起，各人嘅收入不平衡係減少咗，但七十年代後期開始，收入差距又再拉闊；不但行業之間嘅差距拉闊，甚至同一行業好似律師咁，一流律師收入同一般律師收入可以有天淵之別。就以1997至2001年為例，美國最高收入10％人口收入上升49％；反之，50％中產階級人口收入同期只上升13％。即財富同收入愈嚟愈集中喺最高收入10％嘅人口手中。
普及教育的確曾令社會人口人均收入普遍增加，例如美國今年（扣除通脹）人均收入係1900年嘅六倍。隨着普及教育完成，社會又返番去過去情況：即收入及財富漸漸集中喺10％人口手中。依家成為一個律師後，收入只係一般，除非你係十分出色嘅律師。依家成為股票分析員收入亦一般，除非你係一位好出色嘅分析員。再睇中國嘅情況更令人擔心，因為中國未完成全民普及教育；即國民人均收入未全面提升前，卻一早出現咗貧富差距兩極化。上述嘅情況過去喺東南亞國家及拉丁美洲亦出現，最終可引起社會不安。反而美國、日本及香港雖然亦貧富差距擴大，由於人均收入普遍已達一定水平，社會仍比較上安定。
小心駛得萬年船
今天喺美國、日本及香港接受大學教育甚至碩士及博士，亦不能保證閣下可以成為高收入人士，隨非你係出類拔萃。美國最高收入10％人口收入升幅係大部分人收入升幅嘅三倍，咁樣落去10％最高收入人口同大部分人收入比較，差距自然愈嚟愈大，最終引發經濟不景氣。
去年係危機年（crisis），今年係投資者小心謹慎年（caution）。
Jeremy Grantham去年首先用慢動作火車相撞去形容次按危機；換言之，過去一年發生嘅事好似物理定律，例如火車司機企圖重新控制火車，其後因衝擊力令車卡一個接一個互相碰撞甚至出軌。喺經濟層面上，信貸突然收緊令銀行一間接一間出問題，然後阻礙經濟活動令企業純利增長放緩。情況就好似車卡，最先係後面一卡撞上嚟；然後再後面一卡撞上後面一卡，然後再撞上嚟。每次碰撞後以為危機已過咗，結果又有一卡撞上嚟令股市又再跌至低位。
去年第四季最先係美國GDP出現負增長，今年第二季出現GDP負增長係歐洲及日本，第三季極有可能係英國。
七十年代後期最先係鐵娘子結束咗英國政府大量開支時代，令通脹率慢慢受控制；其後引入貨幣學派，令英國進入一段低通脹經濟擴展期，擔心隨住貝理雅首相下台而結束。美國由雪茄伏出任聯儲局主席開始，八十年代列根出任總統解決美國滯脹問題，美國經濟重新恢復高增長。克仔任內再令美國赤字收窄，到殊仔上任利用財赤，令美國經濟喺2000年後繼續增長，但到咗家吓已千瘡百孔。貝爾斯登出事後房利美及房貸美又面對壓力。7月15日起美國證監會禁止「裸空」令油價急跌，以及KBW商業銀行指數回升37％（仍較去年高價低47％），下一步又係點？Resolution Investment Management Ltd.嘅Stuart Thomson認為，信貸壓碎（credit crunch）不但未過去而且喺度惡化。高盛證券分析員Binit Patel認為，佔全球GDP一半國家已面對一場衰退，自貝爾斯登事件十年期債券息率由3.31厘升上3.87厘，估計年底見4厘，因各銀行都喺度增持現金；銀行與銀行間之互信好低。奧巴馬強調改變（change），明年起美國經濟肯定出現大改變，問題係變好定變壞？小心駛得萬年船，今年作為投資者請記住呢句話。
世事改變速度實在快得驚人；去年10月經濟仲係過熱，今年未到9月已寒風陣陣，美國經濟面對三個頂頭風──樓市、信貸及高油價；大部分美國金融股去年至今跌幅由50％至90％。
中國、印度、巴西及俄羅斯合稱金磚四國，佢地每年可產生七千萬個中產階級人口（美國人口只有三億、歐盟略超過三億、日本一億二千八百萬），即全球中產階級人口正以年率10％速度增加。正喺度將全世界變成一個極大消費市場，上述仲未計東歐、中東及東南亞嘅中產階級人口亦喺度湧現。可唔可以抵銷歐美日及英國嘅經濟低增長期？1990年起日本GDP進入低增長期，並冇影響其他國家。今年起美國同歐洲GDP進入低增長期影響卻好大，因歐美係其他新興市場最大出口對象，情況有D似1997年7月亞洲金融風暴，因美元轉強，削弱咗亞洲地區出口競爭力一樣。
油價終於由7月18日嘅147美元回落，美國經濟三股頂頭風其中一股已減弱；至於信貸危機相信喺9月底前兩房問題應有定案；最後只餘下樓市呢股頂頭風。最終問題必須解決，作為投資者需要嘅係耐性，例如1982年9月中國政府宣布，喺1997年7月收番香港主權、到1984年7月中英雙方簽訂聯合聲明，時間上總共二十三個月。
1997年7月亞洲金融風暴到1998年9月東南亞亦開始解決，需時十四個月。
2000年3月科網股泡沫爆破到2002年10月納指止跌回升，需時三十一個月。
去年11月開始嘅次按危機，最終必須解決。問題係要幾耐，同埋點樣收科。
冬天嚟到，春天仲會遠咩？如大家已及時止蝕、冇溝落，唔係只着條泳褲過冬季，便可以耐心地等；可能係明年第一季，又可能再長一D，但春天一定會番嚟；反之，只有一條泳褲就凍死都未天光。
工商銀行（1398）升4.3％，收5.34元，里昂推介目標價6.25元；建行（939）升3.7％，報6.19元，因半年純利587億元人民幣；網通（906）升4.2％，報21元；中遠太平洋（1199）升4.5％，報10.64元，因上半年利潤升11％；平安保險（2318）升4.9％，報53.9元，外傳佢喺度洽購廣州商業銀行；兗州煤業（1171）升5.7％，報12.34元，因上半年利潤升一點六倍。
油價下跌嘅真正原因
花旗推介和黃（013），估計今年每股獲利4.39元，較去年減少38.8％，P/E十六點一倍，目標價94元；亦推介長江實業（001），估計今年每股獲利8.83元，減少9.1％，P/E十一點四倍，目標價13.7元；大連港（2880）估計今年每股獲利21仙，與去年接近，P/E十六倍，目標價5.9元；上海電氣（2727）估計今年每股獲利25.1仙，升5.8％，P/E十點五倍，目標價4元；工商銀行估計今年每股獲利38.6仙，上升58％，P/E十一點六倍，目標價6.3元；國壽（2628）半年純利下降31.9％，至158億元人民幣。
滬深三百指數微跌0.18％，收2400.55。因內地股市重挫，午後國壽、中國平安及工商銀行股價下挫；十七天嘅奧運結束了，2006年推出嘅奧運金銀紀念幣更由奧運進入最後倒數時嘅每套30000元人民幣，下跌到最近16000元人民幣，第二批推出更跌至11000元人民幣，第三批市價10000元人民幣。炒奧運金銀紀念幣者，家吓真係苦過DD。
港幣奧運紀念鈔亦由每張280元跌至138元，澳門幣奧運紀念鈔跌幅更由400元澳門幣跌到90元澳門幣。奧運人民幣紀念鈔跌幅最少只下跌30％，市價係每張1000元人民幣。情況有D似1997年香港回歸紀念金銀幣，香港回歸後亦跌到七個一皮。
炒奧運紀念幣者全部跌眼鏡，至於內地股市又點？期待中嘅奧運後效應周一未有現身。
近日印尼煤礦股股價大跌，例如Bumi Resources由去年6月至今回落36％（印尼係全球最大嘅煤出口國），係咪代表煤價已見頂？
油價亦由7月份每桶147美元急跌，商品價格亦大幅回落，係咪代表全球GDP由高增長期進入低增長期？根據Thomson Reuters估計，標普五百未來P/E只得十二點九倍（7月中一度見十一點六三倍），上述P/E只有1988年出現過（即股災後）。1968年至家吓過去三十年美股平均P/E係十八點三五倍，點解美股近期P/E會咁低？上述低P/E過去只有喺高利率期才出現，但今年4月起利率只得2厘，令人擔心依家低P/E正正反映世界經濟陷入低增長期，呢個先係油價及原材料價格下跌嘅背後真正理由。
中國靠內需保GDP增長？
2002年開始回落嘅美元，踏入今年7月係咪開始止跌回升？外滙專家認為，依家美元滙價最少偏低30％；1995至2001年美元亦曾經轉強。美國銀行分析員認為，美元弱勢喺今年7月結束，因美國人唔再向海外投資，反而將資金調回美國，全球資金正回流美國。英鎊見1.84美元係2006年7月以嚟最低；歐羅見1.47美元（上周一度觸及六個月低位1.463美元）。股聖畢非德話佢過去雖然睇淡美元，但冇拋空美元，股聖一言令周一美元上升如虎添翼。
中國向世全界呈現最豪華嘅奧運會，令人有D奢侈感覺。相信呢個係任何國家（或人）脫貧後必有嘅心態（誇富心態），可以話喺無可厚非。隨着國家（或人）漸漸習慣富有，呢個心態自然收斂。1973年我老曹結婚擺酒時亦筵開七十席，家吓望番轉頭，連我老曹亦奇怪當年點解會咁戇居？依家出席人地嘅誇富宴時，間中亦會由心裏面笑出嚟；人必須經一事、才長一智。
最豪華嘅奧運會結束後，又返番去經濟；中國未來經濟的確有D令人迷惘。由出口導向型經濟轉為內需，最成功係香港；只因八十年代巧遇中國改革開放政策，令香港製造業成功轉入內地，香港經濟改為服務珠三角製造業為主；反觀台灣九十年代經濟轉型，至今仲未算成功。中國經濟最大王牌（廉價成本）慢慢冇埋，可唔可以透過內需長期保持中國GDP 8％或以上高增長？依家中國已面對能源危機、資源短缺及熟練工人供應唔足，加上人民幣升值，歐美日等國家GDP陷入低增長期，中國出口增長率肯定進入拐點，可唔可以利用內需去取代出口增長率，而達到長期GDP「保八」嘅目標？
貧富差距拉大
改革開放三十年，中國整體經濟富起嚟，卻先出現其他資本主義國家嘅貧富差距擴大問題；近年由胡錦濤提出三農政策目的係減少貧富間差距以免造成社會不安。
過去大家相信教育可以改變社會上貧富差距；第二次世界大戰後美國情況的確係咁，但到咗1980年代嘅美國、1990年代嘅日本及1997年後嘅香港，教育雖然愈嚟愈普及，但社會上貧富差距不但未見改善，反而係進一步惡化。根據哈佛大學Goldin及Katz研究，美國1947至70年代後期，教育普及令中產階級冒起，各人嘅收入不平衡係減少咗，但七十年代後期開始，收入差距又再拉闊；不但行業之間嘅差距拉闊，甚至同一行業好似律師咁，一流律師收入同一般律師收入可以有天淵之別。就以1997至2001年為例，美國最高收入10％人口收入上升49％；反之，50％中產階級人口收入同期只上升13％。即財富同收入愈嚟愈集中喺最高收入10％嘅人口手中。
普及教育的確曾令社會人口人均收入普遍增加，例如美國今年（扣除通脹）人均收入係1900年嘅六倍。隨着普及教育完成，社會又返番去過去情況：即收入及財富漸漸集中喺10％人口手中。依家成為一個律師後，收入只係一般，除非你係十分出色嘅律師。依家成為股票分析員收入亦一般，除非你係一位好出色嘅分析員。再睇中國嘅情況更令人擔心，因為中國未完成全民普及教育；即國民人均收入未全面提升前，卻一早出現咗貧富差距兩極化。上述嘅情況過去喺東南亞國家及拉丁美洲亦出現，最終可引起社會不安。反而美國、日本及香港雖然亦貧富差距擴大，由於人均收入普遍已達一定水平，社會仍比較上安定。
小心駛得萬年船
今天喺美國、日本及香港接受大學教育甚至碩士及博士，亦不能保證閣下可以成為高收入人士，隨非你係出類拔萃。美國最高收入10％人口收入升幅係大部分人收入升幅嘅三倍，咁樣落去10％最高收入人口同大部分人收入比較，差距自然愈嚟愈大，最終引發經濟不景氣。
去年係危機年（crisis），今年係投資者小心謹慎年（caution）。
Jeremy Grantham去年首先用慢動作火車相撞去形容次按危機；換言之，過去一年發生嘅事好似物理定律，例如火車司機企圖重新控制火車，其後因衝擊力令車卡一個接一個互相碰撞甚至出軌。喺經濟層面上，信貸突然收緊令銀行一間接一間出問題，然後阻礙經濟活動令企業純利增長放緩。情況就好似車卡，最先係後面一卡撞上嚟；然後再後面一卡撞上後面一卡，然後再撞上嚟。每次碰撞後以為危機已過咗，結果又有一卡撞上嚟令股市又再跌至低位。
去年第四季最先係美國GDP出現負增長，今年第二季出現GDP負增長係歐洲及日本，第三季極有可能係英國。
七十年代後期最先係鐵娘子結束咗英國政府大量開支時代，令通脹率慢慢受控制；其後引入貨幣學派，令英國進入一段低通脹經濟擴展期，擔心隨住貝理雅首相下台而結束。美國由雪茄伏出任聯儲局主席開始，八十年代列根出任總統解決美國滯脹問題，美國經濟重新恢復高增長。克仔任內再令美國赤字收窄，到殊仔上任利用財赤，令美國經濟喺2000年後繼續增長，但到咗家吓已千瘡百孔。貝爾斯登出事後房利美及房貸美又面對壓力。7月15日起美國證監會禁止「裸空」令油價急跌，以及KBW商業銀行指數回升37％（仍較去年高價低47％），下一步又係點？Resolution Investment Management Ltd.嘅Stuart Thomson認為，信貸壓碎（credit crunch）不但未過去而且喺度惡化。高盛證券分析員Binit Patel認為，佔全球GDP一半國家已面對一場衰退，自貝爾斯登事件十年期債券息率由3.31厘升上3.87厘，估計年底見4厘，因各銀行都喺度增持現金；銀行與銀行間之互信好低。奧巴馬強調改變（change），明年起美國經濟肯定出現大改變，問題係變好定變壞？小心駛得萬年船，今年作為投資者請記住呢句話。
世事改變速度實在快得驚人；去年10月經濟仲係過熱，今年未到9月已寒風陣陣，美國經濟面對三個頂頭風──樓市、信貸及高油價；大部分美國金融股去年至今跌幅由50％至90％。
中國、印度、巴西及俄羅斯合稱金磚四國，佢地每年可產生七千萬個中產階級人口（美國人口只有三億、歐盟略超過三億、日本一億二千八百萬），即全球中產階級人口正以年率10％速度增加。正喺度將全世界變成一個極大消費市場，上述仲未計東歐、中東及東南亞嘅中產階級人口亦喺度湧現。可唔可以抵銷歐美日及英國嘅經濟低增長期？1990年起日本GDP進入低增長期，並冇影響其他國家。今年起美國同歐洲GDP進入低增長期影響卻好大，因歐美係其他新興市場最大出口對象，情況有D似1997年7月亞洲金融風暴，因美元轉強，削弱咗亞洲地區出口競爭力一樣。
油價終於由7月18日嘅147美元回落，美國經濟三股頂頭風其中一股已減弱；至於信貸危機相信喺9月底前兩房問題應有定案；最後只餘下樓市呢股頂頭風。最終問題必須解決，作為投資者需要嘅係耐性，例如1982年9月中國政府宣布，喺1997年7月收番香港主權、到1984年7月中英雙方簽訂聯合聲明，時間上總共二十三個月。
1997年7月亞洲金融風暴到1998年9月東南亞亦開始解決，需時十四個月。
2000年3月科網股泡沫爆破到2002年10月納指止跌回升，需時三十一個月。
去年11月開始嘅次按危機，最終必須解決。問題係要幾耐，同埋點樣收科。
冬天嚟到，春天仲會遠咩？如大家已及時止蝕、冇溝落，唔係只着條泳褲過冬季，便可以耐心地等；可能係明年第一季，又可能再長一D，但春天一定會番嚟；反之，只有一條泳褲就凍死都未天光。
Monday, August 25, 2008
Jim Rogers saddles up
Jim Rogers is known throughout the investment community as one of the most successful hedge fund managers of his generation and a world traveler who collected his observations in a series of popular books — Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist, and this year, Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World’s Best Market.
Rogers, 62, attended Yale on scholarship, where he majored in history. After graduating, he moved to Oxford, where he studied politics, economics, and philosophy. Following a stint in the army, he got a job as an assistant analyst on Wall Street in 1968.
He knew virtually nothing about the markets. When asked what attracted him to the field given his liberal arts education, Rogers says, “The world was my passion and here was a place that would pay me to understand the world around me.”
As it turned out, his global interests were well-suited to gauging the markets. In 1973, Rogers and George Soros took over a hedge fund they had been managing and changed its name to Quantum. The fund gained more than 4,000 percent during the 70s and forever cemented the reputations of its two partners.
Rogers “retired” from the hedge fund in 1980 at age 37 to, among other things, manage his personal portfolio, teach finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, and embark upon the travels that provided the material for his first two books: Investment Biker (originally released in 1994 by Villard; re-released in 2003 by Random House) and Adventure Capitalist (2003, Random House).
Rogers’ new book, Hot Commodities, expands on one of the themes he took up in Adventure Capitalist: That a new commodity bull market is underway and China will be at the center of the 21st century, economically and culturally.
In 1998 developed his own commodity index — the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) — and in August of that year launched a commodity index fund that currently manages $800-900 million worldwide. Through March 2005, it had gained 216 percent, while the S&P 500 was up only a little more than 8 percent in the same period.
Rogers spoke with us in March during a morning exercise session about commodities and the global economy.
AT: What does the average stock investor who has never traded commodities need to know about this market?
JR: Commodities are simpler and easier to analyze than stocks. Now, I didn’t say they were easy, I said they were simpler and easier.
If there’s too much copper it’s going to go down; if there’s too little it’s going to go up. Copper doesn’t know who Alan Greenspan is — it doesn’t care.
But when you’re talking about stocks, you have to worry about the stock market, government, management, balance sheets, accounting, environmentalists, unions, regulators, competition. You have to analyze 150 copper companies, or whatever the number is. Most people don’t have the ability to do that.
But you’re not going to buy a copper company unless you’ve figured out whether copper is going to go up or down, anyway. So why not just stop there? Your life should be simpler and easier if you stick with commodities rather than stocks.
Natural gas has gone up 300 percent. Enron was a natural gas company and it went to zero. Companies can go to zero. Commodities cannot go to zero. They can go down, but never to zero. If nothing else, investing in commodities rather than stocks should make your life simpler, easier, and less dangerous.
AT: What about leverage? Most futures traders are inclined to use leverage because it’s available to them. Do you think most individual traders should use it?
JR: Sure, you can use leverage, but that’s where the horror stories come from. Or, you can do it like you buy IBM — no leverage or 50-percent leverage. The Yale study (an analysis of commodity performance referenced in Hot Commodities), which assumed an unleveraged portfolio, showed you would have made 300 percent more investing in commodities than in the underlying stocks.
But if you’re a great stock analyst, and you pick the [right] companies, of course you’re going to make more money. If you can pick the three oil companies out of 500, do it. But in the 70s, a lot of oil stocks did nothing even though the price of oil went up 10 times.
AT: Is the automatic corollary that stocks will underperform during a commodity bull cycle?
JR: Historically that’s always been the case. As far as why that happens, forget the theory. The fact is, it always happens. And I expect bonds to be in a bear market for 15 or 20 years. Even if I’m wrong, though, you’re not going to make any money in bonds at 4 percent, that’s for sure.
Historically, stocks and bonds don’t do well in times like this. I don’t think they will. Stocks are definitely high on any kind of historic basis, bonds are a mess.
AT: What do you think is different between today’s commodity environment and the big boom in the 70s and 80s?
JR: There are a few differences. At that time, for instance, the world had made some gigantic oil discoveries in the 60s — Alaska, the North Sea, Mexico. None of that oil was coming on stream in time. But there was still a gigantic bull market in oil — it went up 10 times — even though huge amounts of oil were there and we knew they were there; it just had to come to market.
Today, though, there have been no great discoveries of oil — we don’t have any oil sitting in the wings waiting to come on stream. We have the Canadian tar sands, but that takes tens of billions of dollars and a long, long time to bring on stream. So this time things should be worse, unless somebody discovers a couple of “elephants” quickly. But otherwise…
Another major difference was that the U.S. was a creditor nation in the 70s and our currency was somewhat sound. Now we’re the world’s largest debtor nation by a factor of many, many times and our currency is not sound. There’s going to be a movement away from the world’s reserve currency, and throughout history during this kind of transition phase people have usually looked for something else — usually hard assets.
AT: You wrote in your book that you really noticed a shift in the markets going on in 1998, and that’s when you started your commodity fund. So what’s your guess as to where we are in the current bull commodity cycle?
JR: The bull market in commodities started in early 1999 — I was off by a few weeks. Historically, the shortest bull market I found lasted 15 years, the longest was 23, the average was 18. So, if history is a guide — this is not a prediction — this bull market will last until somewhere between 2014 and 2022.
I have no idea how long it will last. But I do know that bull markets in commodities last a long, long time because it takes a long time to bring new supply on stream.
AT: What commodities or sectors do you think are looking particularly attractive?
JR: Well, they all do. But as is the case with everything else, you research the things that haven’t moved up very much — sugar, orange juice, cotton, soybeans. This is where the opportunities are, if you ask me.
AT: China played a central role in your book. I think you said you’d be surprised if their currency wasn’t unpegged by 2008. What are the major implications of China keeping their currency pegged or letting it float?
JR: Right now, it means you cannot freely convert your renmimbi into other currencies. That would change, so you could change your renmimbi into any other currency, just as you can the U.S. dollar right now.
Since their currency always trades tied to the U.S. dollar, it means if you own it you can’t make or lose any money compared to the dollar. Once it becomes convertible, it will either go up or down against the U.S. dollar depending on what the market does.
My view is that it will eventually be going up. One effect, of course, of their currency going higher is their goods will cost more. So in theory, other countries will be more competitive because the price of [Chinese] goods will be going higher when translated into U.S. dollars.
It doesn’t always work that way, especially in China’s case, because, for instance, that means the things they buy — such as oil and copper, which are still priced in dollars — will be going down compared to their currency. So it’s not as simple as it looks.
Even if [the renmimbi] goes up, I would remind your readers that the Japanese yen has gone up 400 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past several decades, yet the Japanese still have a balance of trade surplus with the U.S. So it’s not going to have near the effect, certainly in any short period of time, that many people in Washington D.C. hope for.
AT: When you developed your own commodity index, what flaws did you find in the existing ones that you wanted to correct?
JR: I looked at all the indices and I found none of them were any good. The CRB index (Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index) gives orange juice and crude oil the same weighting. What the hell kind of index is that?
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is 74 percent energy and it changes wildly. Livestock has been anywhere from 6 percent to 26 percent. Energy has been anywhere from 44 to 75 percent. And Goldman Sachs, bless their hearts, if something goes up, they buy more. Nobody reading your magazine invests that way.
And these indices were all very U.S.-centric. None of them had rice — even though more than half the people in the world eat rice every day. I had no choice but to come up with my own index. I wanted something that’s transparent and constant.
I don’t know if mine’s the best. You can look at it yourself and make your own decision. It may have flaws but it’s sure better than the rest of them.
AT: Do you disseminate data for your commodity index?
JR: It’s on Bloomberg and Reuters everyday. (He pauses to email some charts of the index — see Figures 1 and 2.) The fund was started Aug. 1, 1998. That’s why the charts I’m sending you start on that date — that’s when the fund started with real money.
AT: Were the travels you’ve taken and written about in your books instrumental to your perspective on commodities?
JR: No. Of course, in my travels I saw the various things that were going on, but I pulled the trigger on this fund in August 1998, and I set out on my most recent round-the-world trip at the end of 1998. When I went, I saw that things I expected, were happening, so it just reinforced what I already thought. Seeing the world will help you and teach you some of this, but it’s not just seeing the world that’s made me realize these forces were underway.
AT: You’ve talked about the fact that there are bound to be corrections — “bumps in the road.” Do you see anything, with regard to China being the driving force, that could really upset that apple cart?
JR: I don’t see much to indicate China would have a permanent setback. In the 19th century, the U.S. had 15 depressions and a civil war — and virtually no human rights and horrible corruption. And we did a pretty good job.
I see setbacks like that coming in China (pause). I guess the world could come to an end, but the world coming to an end would be good for commodities — that and selling short. War is good for commodities — it’s not good for anything else.
I guess I could be wrong about China, but I don’t think so. But I would remind you that in the 70s we had a great bull market in commodities even though economies around the world were in the tank. The U.K. was one of the five largest economies in the world and then they went bankrupt — they had to be bailed out by the IMF (International Monetary Fund). But there was still a gigantic bull market in commodities because supply went down faster than demand.
You can have a bull market when there’s no supply. I use lead in the book as a teaching point. Lead lost its two greatest markets — gasoline and paint — and demand dropped horribly. But lead is at an all-time high because supply went down faster. So bad times don’t preclude a bull market if there is no supply on the horizon.
AT: Thinking from a buy-and-hold stock investor’s perspective, it doesn’t seem viable to think about holding a commodity position for years and years. Buying something cheap is one thing, but how do you get out of positions?
JR: I hope it’s the same way you do with stocks. When it’s time to sell something, you sell it. Just because you’re going to be retiring in 20 years doesn’t mean you buy a stock and never sell it for 20 years. If something were going wrong, you’d want to get out.
With every investment, you must do your homework and stay on top of it. The idea that there’s anything you can buy and not worry about for 20 years is some madness they invented on Wall Street. No serious investor would think about that for a minute.
Do your homework. This book was written not only for professionals but for the public as well. As you mentioned, most people don’t know much about commodities, but they’re sure a lot easier — I didn’t say they were easy — than everything else.
That Yale study I mentioned showed that since 1959 you’d make more money in commodities than in stocks, and you would have had a better inflation hedge. All these people who say stocks are always the place to be haven’t even done their homework. That’s hype — not reality.
Twenty-five years ago most people in the world could not spell “mutual funds” and had no idea stock markets even existed. That changed. There are now 40,000 mutual funds worldwide for stocks and bonds. I have found only four worldwide for commodities. This has a long, long way to go.
Rogers, 62, attended Yale on scholarship, where he majored in history. After graduating, he moved to Oxford, where he studied politics, economics, and philosophy. Following a stint in the army, he got a job as an assistant analyst on Wall Street in 1968.
He knew virtually nothing about the markets. When asked what attracted him to the field given his liberal arts education, Rogers says, “The world was my passion and here was a place that would pay me to understand the world around me.”
As it turned out, his global interests were well-suited to gauging the markets. In 1973, Rogers and George Soros took over a hedge fund they had been managing and changed its name to Quantum. The fund gained more than 4,000 percent during the 70s and forever cemented the reputations of its two partners.
Rogers “retired” from the hedge fund in 1980 at age 37 to, among other things, manage his personal portfolio, teach finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, and embark upon the travels that provided the material for his first two books: Investment Biker (originally released in 1994 by Villard; re-released in 2003 by Random House) and Adventure Capitalist (2003, Random House).
Rogers’ new book, Hot Commodities, expands on one of the themes he took up in Adventure Capitalist: That a new commodity bull market is underway and China will be at the center of the 21st century, economically and culturally.
In 1998 developed his own commodity index — the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) — and in August of that year launched a commodity index fund that currently manages $800-900 million worldwide. Through March 2005, it had gained 216 percent, while the S&P 500 was up only a little more than 8 percent in the same period.
Rogers spoke with us in March during a morning exercise session about commodities and the global economy.
AT: What does the average stock investor who has never traded commodities need to know about this market?
JR: Commodities are simpler and easier to analyze than stocks. Now, I didn’t say they were easy, I said they were simpler and easier.
If there’s too much copper it’s going to go down; if there’s too little it’s going to go up. Copper doesn’t know who Alan Greenspan is — it doesn’t care.
But when you’re talking about stocks, you have to worry about the stock market, government, management, balance sheets, accounting, environmentalists, unions, regulators, competition. You have to analyze 150 copper companies, or whatever the number is. Most people don’t have the ability to do that.
But you’re not going to buy a copper company unless you’ve figured out whether copper is going to go up or down, anyway. So why not just stop there? Your life should be simpler and easier if you stick with commodities rather than stocks.
Natural gas has gone up 300 percent. Enron was a natural gas company and it went to zero. Companies can go to zero. Commodities cannot go to zero. They can go down, but never to zero. If nothing else, investing in commodities rather than stocks should make your life simpler, easier, and less dangerous.
AT: What about leverage? Most futures traders are inclined to use leverage because it’s available to them. Do you think most individual traders should use it?
JR: Sure, you can use leverage, but that’s where the horror stories come from. Or, you can do it like you buy IBM — no leverage or 50-percent leverage. The Yale study (an analysis of commodity performance referenced in Hot Commodities), which assumed an unleveraged portfolio, showed you would have made 300 percent more investing in commodities than in the underlying stocks.
But if you’re a great stock analyst, and you pick the [right] companies, of course you’re going to make more money. If you can pick the three oil companies out of 500, do it. But in the 70s, a lot of oil stocks did nothing even though the price of oil went up 10 times.
AT: Is the automatic corollary that stocks will underperform during a commodity bull cycle?
JR: Historically that’s always been the case. As far as why that happens, forget the theory. The fact is, it always happens. And I expect bonds to be in a bear market for 15 or 20 years. Even if I’m wrong, though, you’re not going to make any money in bonds at 4 percent, that’s for sure.
Historically, stocks and bonds don’t do well in times like this. I don’t think they will. Stocks are definitely high on any kind of historic basis, bonds are a mess.
AT: What do you think is different between today’s commodity environment and the big boom in the 70s and 80s?
JR: There are a few differences. At that time, for instance, the world had made some gigantic oil discoveries in the 60s — Alaska, the North Sea, Mexico. None of that oil was coming on stream in time. But there was still a gigantic bull market in oil — it went up 10 times — even though huge amounts of oil were there and we knew they were there; it just had to come to market.
Today, though, there have been no great discoveries of oil — we don’t have any oil sitting in the wings waiting to come on stream. We have the Canadian tar sands, but that takes tens of billions of dollars and a long, long time to bring on stream. So this time things should be worse, unless somebody discovers a couple of “elephants” quickly. But otherwise…
Another major difference was that the U.S. was a creditor nation in the 70s and our currency was somewhat sound. Now we’re the world’s largest debtor nation by a factor of many, many times and our currency is not sound. There’s going to be a movement away from the world’s reserve currency, and throughout history during this kind of transition phase people have usually looked for something else — usually hard assets.
AT: You wrote in your book that you really noticed a shift in the markets going on in 1998, and that’s when you started your commodity fund. So what’s your guess as to where we are in the current bull commodity cycle?
JR: The bull market in commodities started in early 1999 — I was off by a few weeks. Historically, the shortest bull market I found lasted 15 years, the longest was 23, the average was 18. So, if history is a guide — this is not a prediction — this bull market will last until somewhere between 2014 and 2022.
I have no idea how long it will last. But I do know that bull markets in commodities last a long, long time because it takes a long time to bring new supply on stream.
AT: What commodities or sectors do you think are looking particularly attractive?
JR: Well, they all do. But as is the case with everything else, you research the things that haven’t moved up very much — sugar, orange juice, cotton, soybeans. This is where the opportunities are, if you ask me.
AT: China played a central role in your book. I think you said you’d be surprised if their currency wasn’t unpegged by 2008. What are the major implications of China keeping their currency pegged or letting it float?
JR: Right now, it means you cannot freely convert your renmimbi into other currencies. That would change, so you could change your renmimbi into any other currency, just as you can the U.S. dollar right now.
Since their currency always trades tied to the U.S. dollar, it means if you own it you can’t make or lose any money compared to the dollar. Once it becomes convertible, it will either go up or down against the U.S. dollar depending on what the market does.
My view is that it will eventually be going up. One effect, of course, of their currency going higher is their goods will cost more. So in theory, other countries will be more competitive because the price of [Chinese] goods will be going higher when translated into U.S. dollars.
It doesn’t always work that way, especially in China’s case, because, for instance, that means the things they buy — such as oil and copper, which are still priced in dollars — will be going down compared to their currency. So it’s not as simple as it looks.
Even if [the renmimbi] goes up, I would remind your readers that the Japanese yen has gone up 400 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past several decades, yet the Japanese still have a balance of trade surplus with the U.S. So it’s not going to have near the effect, certainly in any short period of time, that many people in Washington D.C. hope for.
AT: When you developed your own commodity index, what flaws did you find in the existing ones that you wanted to correct?
JR: I looked at all the indices and I found none of them were any good. The CRB index (Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index) gives orange juice and crude oil the same weighting. What the hell kind of index is that?
The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is 74 percent energy and it changes wildly. Livestock has been anywhere from 6 percent to 26 percent. Energy has been anywhere from 44 to 75 percent. And Goldman Sachs, bless their hearts, if something goes up, they buy more. Nobody reading your magazine invests that way.
And these indices were all very U.S.-centric. None of them had rice — even though more than half the people in the world eat rice every day. I had no choice but to come up with my own index. I wanted something that’s transparent and constant.
I don’t know if mine’s the best. You can look at it yourself and make your own decision. It may have flaws but it’s sure better than the rest of them.
AT: Do you disseminate data for your commodity index?
JR: It’s on Bloomberg and Reuters everyday. (He pauses to email some charts of the index — see Figures 1 and 2.) The fund was started Aug. 1, 1998. That’s why the charts I’m sending you start on that date — that’s when the fund started with real money.
AT: Were the travels you’ve taken and written about in your books instrumental to your perspective on commodities?
JR: No. Of course, in my travels I saw the various things that were going on, but I pulled the trigger on this fund in August 1998, and I set out on my most recent round-the-world trip at the end of 1998. When I went, I saw that things I expected, were happening, so it just reinforced what I already thought. Seeing the world will help you and teach you some of this, but it’s not just seeing the world that’s made me realize these forces were underway.
AT: You’ve talked about the fact that there are bound to be corrections — “bumps in the road.” Do you see anything, with regard to China being the driving force, that could really upset that apple cart?
JR: I don’t see much to indicate China would have a permanent setback. In the 19th century, the U.S. had 15 depressions and a civil war — and virtually no human rights and horrible corruption. And we did a pretty good job.
I see setbacks like that coming in China (pause). I guess the world could come to an end, but the world coming to an end would be good for commodities — that and selling short. War is good for commodities — it’s not good for anything else.
I guess I could be wrong about China, but I don’t think so. But I would remind you that in the 70s we had a great bull market in commodities even though economies around the world were in the tank. The U.K. was one of the five largest economies in the world and then they went bankrupt — they had to be bailed out by the IMF (International Monetary Fund). But there was still a gigantic bull market in commodities because supply went down faster than demand.
You can have a bull market when there’s no supply. I use lead in the book as a teaching point. Lead lost its two greatest markets — gasoline and paint — and demand dropped horribly. But lead is at an all-time high because supply went down faster. So bad times don’t preclude a bull market if there is no supply on the horizon.
AT: Thinking from a buy-and-hold stock investor’s perspective, it doesn’t seem viable to think about holding a commodity position for years and years. Buying something cheap is one thing, but how do you get out of positions?
JR: I hope it’s the same way you do with stocks. When it’s time to sell something, you sell it. Just because you’re going to be retiring in 20 years doesn’t mean you buy a stock and never sell it for 20 years. If something were going wrong, you’d want to get out.
With every investment, you must do your homework and stay on top of it. The idea that there’s anything you can buy and not worry about for 20 years is some madness they invented on Wall Street. No serious investor would think about that for a minute.
Do your homework. This book was written not only for professionals but for the public as well. As you mentioned, most people don’t know much about commodities, but they’re sure a lot easier — I didn’t say they were easy — than everything else.
That Yale study I mentioned showed that since 1959 you’d make more money in commodities than in stocks, and you would have had a better inflation hedge. All these people who say stocks are always the place to be haven’t even done their homework. That’s hype — not reality.
Twenty-five years ago most people in the world could not spell “mutual funds” and had no idea stock markets even existed. That changed. There are now 40,000 mutual funds worldwide for stocks and bonds. I have found only four worldwide for commodities. This has a long, long way to go.
The World's Cheapest Stock Market is Ready to Soar
Jim Rogers picked up the phone and called a German stockbroker. He asked the broker to buy him a portfolio of German stocks...
"I think you're about to have the biggest bull market you've had in two or three generations," Rogers told the broker, noting he planned to hold the stocks for three years.
The request confused the broker. Normally, clients would ask him for research or his opinion. He wasn't used to Rogers' forthright manner. Besides, Germany had been in a bear market for two decades. The broker couldn't believe anyone would be crazy enough to put so much money into German stocks.Advertisement
"The broker was dumbfounded," says Rogers. "He thought I was a madman."
It was 1982. The German stock market crumbled in 1962 and had traded sideways ever since. Meanwhile, the German economy had boomed, and companies multiplied their earnings, revenues, and profits.
The situation caught Jim Rogers' eye...
"So there was basic value there," Rogers said in a 1989 interview. "If there is very good value, then I'm probably not going to lose much money even if I'm wrong."
Buying value is a great strategy... but it doesn't work without timing. For instance, Rogers could have bought into Germany five years earlier on the same theory... and sat on dead money for five years.
So Rogers waits for a catalyst. In this case, the catalyst was an election. Rogers knew Germany would throw out the socialists and elect the pro-business Christian Democrat party. He figured German firms would pile money into the economy if the Christian Democrats won the election.
Rogers was right. The pro-business party won the election, and between 1982 and 1985, German stocks nearly tripled.
Jim Rogers is a legend. His book Investment Biker influenced me more than any other finance book I've ever read. I first picked it up 10 years ago, and I've followed Jim Rogers ever since. I've watched his interviews on television, read newspaper stories about him, and attended a couple of his lectures. He doesn't make many investments. And he's always forthright with his opinions. It's never hard to figure out what he's doing with his money.
I can tell you, Jim Rogers is never wrong. Just look at the two trades he's recommended so far this decade. In 1999, he started telling people to buy commodities. He set up an index to track commodities – the Rogers International Commodities Index – and published a book about commodities in 2004. The Rogers International Commodities Index is up 470% since inception.
China was his second trade of the decade. He's been talking up China since the early part of this decade, too. The Chinese stock market went up 400% between 2006 and 2007...
Now Jim is recommending a new trade.
He started investing in this idea in March. It was the first time in his life he'd ever bought a stock in this country. Then, in April, he told an audience he liked this country so much he'd like to live there. The local stock market jumped 2% when traders heard Rogers make these comments...
This stock market has lagged the rest of the world for 10 years. It's the cheapest stock market in the Datastream database of international stock indexes.
Fixing My Big Investment Mistake This Year
We Need to Get Our Money into China
And we have a catalyst. Just like in Germany, a new political party recently won power in this country... And it promises to make major changes.
Jim Rogers tripled his money in Germany. I think he'll triple our money in this market, too. I'll tell you the name of the country in my next column.
"I think you're about to have the biggest bull market you've had in two or three generations," Rogers told the broker, noting he planned to hold the stocks for three years.
The request confused the broker. Normally, clients would ask him for research or his opinion. He wasn't used to Rogers' forthright manner. Besides, Germany had been in a bear market for two decades. The broker couldn't believe anyone would be crazy enough to put so much money into German stocks.Advertisement
"The broker was dumbfounded," says Rogers. "He thought I was a madman."
It was 1982. The German stock market crumbled in 1962 and had traded sideways ever since. Meanwhile, the German economy had boomed, and companies multiplied their earnings, revenues, and profits.
The situation caught Jim Rogers' eye...
"So there was basic value there," Rogers said in a 1989 interview. "If there is very good value, then I'm probably not going to lose much money even if I'm wrong."
Buying value is a great strategy... but it doesn't work without timing. For instance, Rogers could have bought into Germany five years earlier on the same theory... and sat on dead money for five years.
So Rogers waits for a catalyst. In this case, the catalyst was an election. Rogers knew Germany would throw out the socialists and elect the pro-business Christian Democrat party. He figured German firms would pile money into the economy if the Christian Democrats won the election.
Rogers was right. The pro-business party won the election, and between 1982 and 1985, German stocks nearly tripled.
Jim Rogers is a legend. His book Investment Biker influenced me more than any other finance book I've ever read. I first picked it up 10 years ago, and I've followed Jim Rogers ever since. I've watched his interviews on television, read newspaper stories about him, and attended a couple of his lectures. He doesn't make many investments. And he's always forthright with his opinions. It's never hard to figure out what he's doing with his money.
I can tell you, Jim Rogers is never wrong. Just look at the two trades he's recommended so far this decade. In 1999, he started telling people to buy commodities. He set up an index to track commodities – the Rogers International Commodities Index – and published a book about commodities in 2004. The Rogers International Commodities Index is up 470% since inception.
China was his second trade of the decade. He's been talking up China since the early part of this decade, too. The Chinese stock market went up 400% between 2006 and 2007...
Now Jim is recommending a new trade.
He started investing in this idea in March. It was the first time in his life he'd ever bought a stock in this country. Then, in April, he told an audience he liked this country so much he'd like to live there. The local stock market jumped 2% when traders heard Rogers make these comments...
This stock market has lagged the rest of the world for 10 years. It's the cheapest stock market in the Datastream database of international stock indexes.
Fixing My Big Investment Mistake This Year
We Need to Get Our Money into China
And we have a catalyst. Just like in Germany, a new political party recently won power in this country... And it promises to make major changes.
Jim Rogers tripled his money in Germany. I think he'll triple our money in this market, too. I'll tell you the name of the country in my next column.
A Conversation With Jim Rogers
JIM ROGERS DOESN'T take global investing lightly. The co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros pores over reams of charts and spreadsheets when mulling any overseas investment idea. Then he goes to the country in question. And he doesn't fly there — he drives.
That's right. Rogers is so dedicated to getting, as he says, "the straight skinny" on foreign markets that he decided in 1999 to travel around the world to experience them firsthand, a journey documented in the 2003 book "Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Investor's Road Trip." Actually, this was Rogers' second circumnavigation of the planet (his first was made on a motorcycle more than a decade ago and chronicled in 1991's "Investment Biker") — and this time, he traveled in style. The 60-year-old Rogers got himself a custom-built sunburst-yellow 4x4 Mercedes convertible, and then hitched a trailer full of creature comforts to the back. He even invited a team of cameramen along to film the trip.
Starting off in Iceland, Rogers and his fiancée Paige Parker traveled east through Europe, across Turkey and the "Stans" (Kurdistan, Uzbekistan and so on) into China, back west through Russia, down the Atlantic seaboard of Africa and then back north along the continent's east coast into Egypt, Saudia Arabia and India. Then he went south through Indonesia and Australia, over the Pacific to South America, up through the West Coast of the U.S. and into Canada — finishing the trip, after three years, 116 countries and 152,000 miles, at the doorstep of his Upper West Side mansion in Manhattan.
Along the way, Rogers kept his eye out for good deals, and he found many. Angola, he argues, after years of war and the death of guerilla leader Jonas Savimbi, will become a major player in Africa. East Timor, with vast natural resources, is on the verge of becoming "the next Kuwait." China, not the U.S., will be the dominant nation of the 21st century.
Rogers also found a number of trouble spots. Russia, he says, is rife with corruption and is disintegrating rapidly. Egypt is a powder keg. Pakistan, splintering from within, won't last as a unified country. Mexico, with its declining oil revenues and dwindling direct investment, is in deep trouble.
SmartMoney.com asked Rogers, whose journey set a Guinness World Record for distance traveled by horseless buggy, for some tips he's gleaned from his travels, which currency he thinks has the most potential (it's not the dollar or the euro) and why he thinks commodities are the place to invest right now.
SmartMoney.com: When you drive into a country, what do you look for to help you assess its economic prospects?
Jim Rogers: When you cross a border, you learn a lot of what you need to know. You learn about the bureaucracy. You find out about the black market, if there is one. Is the currency sound? Is it freely tradable? Do you have to pay bribes? And when you drive into the interior, you learn about the infrastructure. Is there an infrastructure? Is it being maintained? Is there electricity? Is there radio, television, newspapers? If there is no black market, that's usually a good sign. If there is one, how high of a premium do you have to pay for the currency? A small premium is a good sign. A big premium means things could fall apart any day. As you get further into the country, you find out about corruption. Are you being harassed by the police? Are there hotels, businesses, farmers, and if there are farmers, are they using machines, or just plows and hoes? What kind of vehicles are on the road? How easy is it to get gas and food? It all starts coming together, and usually by the time I get to the capital, I have a pretty good idea whether or not I want to invest in the country.
SM: Your take on the disparities between the two global powers emerging from communist rule — China and Russia — is rather eye-opening. How do the two differ?
JR: Russia is a disaster that's spiraling into a catastrophe. The Soviet Union was the largest empire that the world has ever seen, and probably ever will see, and now it's breaking up. In the former Soviet Union, there were 124 official ethnic groups, and most of them didn't want to be part of the empire. It's already broken up into 15states. It will be 50 states or 100 states before it's over. When you drive across Russia, you find that much of the country isn't paying much attention to Moscow anymore. Moscow doesn't have control over anything. There is capitalism, but it's outlaw capitalism — the Russian mafia is everywhere. [President Vladimir] Putin has no power, and the Red Army doesn't, either. It still can't handle Chechnya. The whole thing is in the process of disintegrating. There's no reinvestment in infrastructure. People are stripping what they can and selling it.
The Chinese, on the other hand, have had a long history of entrepreneurship and capitalism, and they're on the rise again. They work from dawn to dusk. They save and invest 35% of their income — we save and invest 2% to 3% of our income in the U.S. In addition, there's this huge population of expatriate Chinese, and they're pouring back into the country with their expertise and capital. Nobody is pouring back into Russia — everybody's trying to get out of Russia. And Russia never had a solid entrepreneur class. You want some solid investment advice? Make your children and grandchildren learn Chinese, because the 21st century will be the century of China. The 19th century was the century of the United Kingdom. The 20th century was the century of the U.S. The 21st century will be China's.
SM: During your first trip, you thought several countries in Africa, such as South Africa, had a lot of potential, but you've changed your mind on a number of those countries. What's changed?
JR: During my last trip, I wasn't so much optimistic about South Africa as I was of the opinion that the jury was still out. I wondered whether it was going to make it or not. Now I'm sure it's not going to make it. I wouldn't put any money into South Africa. My enthusiasm was tempered because I found that some of the leaders who looked good on paper and were saying the right things have turned out to be charlatans and just as bad as the previous dictators and thugs.
SM: You were very impressed with Tanzania, though.
JR: Yes, I'm very optimistic about Tanzania. First of all, as a tourist, you can get everything one would want from an African experience. It's got the best wildlife, the best game, it's got Zanzibar, beaches, Kilimanjaro — it's terrific. And they are opening up. The country was a hopeless socialist poster child for decades, but now it has realized its mistakes, and its leaders they say they're changing. We'll see in a few years whether they mean it or not.
SM: You've been very bullish on commodities over the past few years. The commodity index you founded in 1998 — the Rogers International Commodities Index — is up more than 90% since then, more than any other index in the world. Why do you think commodities are the right place to invest your money now?
JR: The main reason is that supply and demand have gotten out of whack. Nobody has built much productive capacity in the commodity industries for a couple of decades. People are looking for hot new stocks or mutual funds, but nobody's looking for lead mines or sugar plantations. There was a huge bear market in commodities in the 1980s and '90s, so productive capacity has declined while demand has continued to grow. So you have supply down and demand up. There were big inventories built up during the cold war, but most of that's been liquidated. When investing, you should always buy the commodities that haven't moved yet, so I guess at the moment that would be sugar and coffee and orange juice. In other words: Buy breakfast.
SM: You've argued that the dollar, which has lost considerable value compared with the euro and the yen in recent months, could lose its status as the world's reserve currency. When do you see that happening?
JR: It's not that it could, it will — just as the pound sterling lost its status. It could be in 20 years, it could be 10 years. We're the largest debtor nation in the world. We owe more than seven trillion dollars to foreigners. If you add up all of the foreign debts of every debtor nation in the world, our foreign debts exceed them all. So there's no question that there's a problem, but we're not doing anything to solve it. In fact, it's getting worse, and people are already looking for other candidates to replace the dollar.
SM: What do you think of the euro?
JR: The euro is flawed. I own the euro now, but it's got its own problems. I think the euro [zone] will break up and disintegrate, because when [the European Union] put it together, they didn't do a very good job of writing the contract. Trying to tell the Portuguese and the Finns and everybody else that they have to do the same thing and synchronize their economies is a mistake. In theory, yes, it could work, but they're trying to make it happen too fast, and that's going to lead to problems down the road.
SM: What about the Chinese yuan?
JR: That's the only currency I see on the horizon that could realistically replace the dollar. It's a blocked currency right now, so you can't trade it, but it will eventually become fully convertible because, for one, China has deals to do so with the World Trade Organization, and two, if nothing else, China will never be able to develop into a great economy if it doesn't have a convertible currency. China has a huge population, a big economy, a large balance-of-trade surplus and huge international reserves, so if any currency could replace the dollar as a reserve currency, it would be the yuan.
That's right. Rogers is so dedicated to getting, as he says, "the straight skinny" on foreign markets that he decided in 1999 to travel around the world to experience them firsthand, a journey documented in the 2003 book "Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Investor's Road Trip." Actually, this was Rogers' second circumnavigation of the planet (his first was made on a motorcycle more than a decade ago and chronicled in 1991's "Investment Biker") — and this time, he traveled in style. The 60-year-old Rogers got himself a custom-built sunburst-yellow 4x4 Mercedes convertible, and then hitched a trailer full of creature comforts to the back. He even invited a team of cameramen along to film the trip.
Starting off in Iceland, Rogers and his fiancée Paige Parker traveled east through Europe, across Turkey and the "Stans" (Kurdistan, Uzbekistan and so on) into China, back west through Russia, down the Atlantic seaboard of Africa and then back north along the continent's east coast into Egypt, Saudia Arabia and India. Then he went south through Indonesia and Australia, over the Pacific to South America, up through the West Coast of the U.S. and into Canada — finishing the trip, after three years, 116 countries and 152,000 miles, at the doorstep of his Upper West Side mansion in Manhattan.
Along the way, Rogers kept his eye out for good deals, and he found many. Angola, he argues, after years of war and the death of guerilla leader Jonas Savimbi, will become a major player in Africa. East Timor, with vast natural resources, is on the verge of becoming "the next Kuwait." China, not the U.S., will be the dominant nation of the 21st century.
Rogers also found a number of trouble spots. Russia, he says, is rife with corruption and is disintegrating rapidly. Egypt is a powder keg. Pakistan, splintering from within, won't last as a unified country. Mexico, with its declining oil revenues and dwindling direct investment, is in deep trouble.
SmartMoney.com asked Rogers, whose journey set a Guinness World Record for distance traveled by horseless buggy, for some tips he's gleaned from his travels, which currency he thinks has the most potential (it's not the dollar or the euro) and why he thinks commodities are the place to invest right now.
SmartMoney.com: When you drive into a country, what do you look for to help you assess its economic prospects?
Jim Rogers: When you cross a border, you learn a lot of what you need to know. You learn about the bureaucracy. You find out about the black market, if there is one. Is the currency sound? Is it freely tradable? Do you have to pay bribes? And when you drive into the interior, you learn about the infrastructure. Is there an infrastructure? Is it being maintained? Is there electricity? Is there radio, television, newspapers? If there is no black market, that's usually a good sign. If there is one, how high of a premium do you have to pay for the currency? A small premium is a good sign. A big premium means things could fall apart any day. As you get further into the country, you find out about corruption. Are you being harassed by the police? Are there hotels, businesses, farmers, and if there are farmers, are they using machines, or just plows and hoes? What kind of vehicles are on the road? How easy is it to get gas and food? It all starts coming together, and usually by the time I get to the capital, I have a pretty good idea whether or not I want to invest in the country.
SM: Your take on the disparities between the two global powers emerging from communist rule — China and Russia — is rather eye-opening. How do the two differ?
JR: Russia is a disaster that's spiraling into a catastrophe. The Soviet Union was the largest empire that the world has ever seen, and probably ever will see, and now it's breaking up. In the former Soviet Union, there were 124 official ethnic groups, and most of them didn't want to be part of the empire. It's already broken up into 15states. It will be 50 states or 100 states before it's over. When you drive across Russia, you find that much of the country isn't paying much attention to Moscow anymore. Moscow doesn't have control over anything. There is capitalism, but it's outlaw capitalism — the Russian mafia is everywhere. [President Vladimir] Putin has no power, and the Red Army doesn't, either. It still can't handle Chechnya. The whole thing is in the process of disintegrating. There's no reinvestment in infrastructure. People are stripping what they can and selling it.
The Chinese, on the other hand, have had a long history of entrepreneurship and capitalism, and they're on the rise again. They work from dawn to dusk. They save and invest 35% of their income — we save and invest 2% to 3% of our income in the U.S. In addition, there's this huge population of expatriate Chinese, and they're pouring back into the country with their expertise and capital. Nobody is pouring back into Russia — everybody's trying to get out of Russia. And Russia never had a solid entrepreneur class. You want some solid investment advice? Make your children and grandchildren learn Chinese, because the 21st century will be the century of China. The 19th century was the century of the United Kingdom. The 20th century was the century of the U.S. The 21st century will be China's.
SM: During your first trip, you thought several countries in Africa, such as South Africa, had a lot of potential, but you've changed your mind on a number of those countries. What's changed?
JR: During my last trip, I wasn't so much optimistic about South Africa as I was of the opinion that the jury was still out. I wondered whether it was going to make it or not. Now I'm sure it's not going to make it. I wouldn't put any money into South Africa. My enthusiasm was tempered because I found that some of the leaders who looked good on paper and were saying the right things have turned out to be charlatans and just as bad as the previous dictators and thugs.
SM: You were very impressed with Tanzania, though.
JR: Yes, I'm very optimistic about Tanzania. First of all, as a tourist, you can get everything one would want from an African experience. It's got the best wildlife, the best game, it's got Zanzibar, beaches, Kilimanjaro — it's terrific. And they are opening up. The country was a hopeless socialist poster child for decades, but now it has realized its mistakes, and its leaders they say they're changing. We'll see in a few years whether they mean it or not.
SM: You've been very bullish on commodities over the past few years. The commodity index you founded in 1998 — the Rogers International Commodities Index — is up more than 90% since then, more than any other index in the world. Why do you think commodities are the right place to invest your money now?
JR: The main reason is that supply and demand have gotten out of whack. Nobody has built much productive capacity in the commodity industries for a couple of decades. People are looking for hot new stocks or mutual funds, but nobody's looking for lead mines or sugar plantations. There was a huge bear market in commodities in the 1980s and '90s, so productive capacity has declined while demand has continued to grow. So you have supply down and demand up. There were big inventories built up during the cold war, but most of that's been liquidated. When investing, you should always buy the commodities that haven't moved yet, so I guess at the moment that would be sugar and coffee and orange juice. In other words: Buy breakfast.
SM: You've argued that the dollar, which has lost considerable value compared with the euro and the yen in recent months, could lose its status as the world's reserve currency. When do you see that happening?
JR: It's not that it could, it will — just as the pound sterling lost its status. It could be in 20 years, it could be 10 years. We're the largest debtor nation in the world. We owe more than seven trillion dollars to foreigners. If you add up all of the foreign debts of every debtor nation in the world, our foreign debts exceed them all. So there's no question that there's a problem, but we're not doing anything to solve it. In fact, it's getting worse, and people are already looking for other candidates to replace the dollar.
SM: What do you think of the euro?
JR: The euro is flawed. I own the euro now, but it's got its own problems. I think the euro [zone] will break up and disintegrate, because when [the European Union] put it together, they didn't do a very good job of writing the contract. Trying to tell the Portuguese and the Finns and everybody else that they have to do the same thing and synchronize their economies is a mistake. In theory, yes, it could work, but they're trying to make it happen too fast, and that's going to lead to problems down the road.
SM: What about the Chinese yuan?
JR: That's the only currency I see on the horizon that could realistically replace the dollar. It's a blocked currency right now, so you can't trade it, but it will eventually become fully convertible because, for one, China has deals to do so with the World Trade Organization, and two, if nothing else, China will never be able to develop into a great economy if it doesn't have a convertible currency. China has a huge population, a big economy, a large balance-of-trade surplus and huge international reserves, so if any currency could replace the dollar as a reserve currency, it would be the yuan.
谢国忠：中国企业破产潮一定会出现
在去年股市疯狂涨到6000点的时候，他冷言相向，认为A股的合理估值在2500点上下，以至于被多头叫做“乌鸦嘴”，他就是谢国忠。你可以认为他观点过激，或是理想主义，但却不能对他的观点置若罔闻。因为，过去的经验证明，他的大部分预测都是正确的。对于当下中国经济的状况、经济改革的瓶颈、下一轮经济的走向，他会怎么看呢？
通胀时代债券市场不保险
理财一周报：最近中国政府减持了30亿美元的美国债券，此前您也建议政府减持美国债券。您认为这次减持的主要原因是什么?
谢国忠：美国国债市场最终是会回落的，现在是中国逐渐淡出的很好的时机。现在美元债券市场是有特殊力量在支持，比如说，最近一段时间大宗商品不好，很多资金没有出路，纷纷涌到债券市场。现在美国通胀指数非常不好，除非你觉得通胀会有好转，不然的话这种靠资金链支撑的市场是靠不住的。
除了减持美国国债之外，中国还需要缩短每个基金的平均期限，抛什么买什么都不是最重要的，最重要的是每一个基金平均期限要缩短。
理财一周报：截至今年6月底，中国共持有美国国债5038亿美元。中国是否应当继续减持美元债券？您认为减持到多少比较合适？
谢国忠：最近的减持数额对中国来说还是非常小的。我觉得尽量一步步来吧，先把投资从长线的退到中线，中线的退到短线，短线的在美国股市见底的时候转成美国股票，主要是指数基金。我们已经进入通胀时代，债券市场已经不保险了。等到美国股市见底时投资美股是更好的一种配置，因为公司后面是有资产的，资产是抗通胀的。
理财一周报：您的建议是投资美股，但有投行人士分析，就未来的趋势看，欧元、日元、澳元、加元已经见顶，卖掉的美元资产不太可能去购买以上货币，而是应该把撤离债市的资金用于国内基础设施投资、建立股市平准基金或者投资到香港或者其他亚洲市场。您觉得中国政府会这么做吗？
谢国忠：那不可能，这么说是对外汇储备不懂。外汇储备是货币政策管理引起的结果。政府不希望外汇增长太快才进行储备的。如果把外汇换成人民币的话就是扩大货币，就等于是在印钞票。
之所以会有外汇储备，是因为一个央行既不想让汇率升值，又不想让货币增加太快，最重要的是不想让汇率升值，所以它就买美元，发当地的货币。
理财一周报：您刚才提到投资美国股市，您认为合适的时机是在什么时候？
谢国忠：美国股市现在还不便宜，它现在市净率在两倍左右，熊市一般是要跌到1.5倍的。1998年金融危机的时候，美国股市还曾经跌破过1倍。现在美国的金融股倒是很便宜，但是不知道质量怎么样。现在美国金融业的资金数字、盈利都靠不住，所以它的PE（市盈率）、PB（市净率）也都是靠不住的。我觉得投资美股的话可能明年下半年会有机会。
中国企业破产潮一定会出现
理财一周报：既然上述投行讲法您不同意，那您是否认同中国货币政策年底会放松的说法？
谢国忠：中国货币政策放松的话就是从36000亿元的贷款放宽到40000亿元吧。但我认为这种放松空间是在政策制定的时候就已经放好了。
政策制定者在宣布政策的时候总是宣布得比能够接受的少一点。然后等大家都跟你吵架的时候再多放一点，回到你想要的位置。不过，信贷放松这也是救不了经济的，房地产开发商去年买地就买了30000亿元，这个规模的怎么能够呢？
其实中国的货币根本不紧，货币每月以16%～18%的速度在增加，全世界你去看看，哪个国家有这么松？货币政策的紧，是相对于房地产开发商的疯狂。开放商原来疯狂买土地是为了上市，到股市里面去圈钱，现在股市行情差了，没有钱就到银行借钱，银行也没有钱了，就到黑市里面去借。黑市现在利息涨得非常高，超过20%。
理财一周报：现在大家对经济放缓比较担忧，您认为经济放缓会带来哪些影响？
谢国忠：现在主要是出口在放慢，我估计未来12个月，出口有可能都会下降。出口对GDP的拉动在5%左右，2003年到现在每年出口都是以20%的增速在增加。
房地产的问题也和出口有关系，出口出现了问题，热钱就会退，房地产资金链就出现了问题。房地产对GDP的拉动又是2%～3%，出口和房地产加在一起对经济的影响比较大。经济明显放缓是肯定的了。现在每个季度都是0.5个百分点的下降，我估计，中国第三季度经济增长就将明显低于10%。
据我观察，现在房地产开发还没放缓，上半年房地产开发增长30%左右。不过，很多房地产开发商都没钱了，下半年应该不会这么猛了。
中国很多企业都是在泡沫中生存，一旦经济退潮很多企业都活不下去。我去过很多地方，见到很多这样的企业。中国企业的破产潮一定会出现。但经济调整是必然发生的，中国很多企业都是不增值的，本身就是经济的负担。这种调整都是必然的，瘦身是应该的，不瘦身的话，经济是跑不动的。
理财一周报：调整是必然的，但是也有政策效率问题。现在有很多人认为这轮宏观调整中淘汰的都是效率比较高的企业，政府需要出面救助牺牲较大的中小企业。这种观点您怎么看？
谢国忠：中国很多中小企业都是救不活的。它们中有很多本来就不会做生意，都是依靠砍价、欺诈工人、欺诈银行、欺诈供应商生存。除了价格竞争砍价之外，它们就没有其他的经营方式。这种企业从长远来说是没有生存的机会的。
只有在经济调整过程中把低效率、不该生存的企业泡沫挤掉，好的企业才会生长出来。中国现在的情况是，很多企业不会做生意还占着地不走，然后拉政府的关系，拉银行的关系，在政治上施压存活。这使得很多好的企业失去了生长机会。中国企业如果不更新换代的话，经济是不能往上走的。
理财一周报：那么现在政府说要出资救中小企业，您是不是也觉得没有这个必要？
谢国忠：中小企业借款都很小，但是很多企业实际上都是救不活的。浙江现在出了很大的问题，我去看了一下，很多企业是因为它玩房地产才出了问题，主业没有做好就更不要说了。这种情况政府还要去救，怎么救得活？亏空可大了。
我觉得政府要做的应该是不让这些企业逃走，有些企业钱都转到国外去了，你根本逮不到。我们十几年前就经历过这样的事，人都逃走了，债就没主了。
理财一周报：那政府还要去救，您认为这是出于什么考虑？
谢国忠：这些企业和当地政府都是属于共同利益集团的。
贸易转向石油新富国是经济起飞必要条件
理财一周报：出口在放缓，国际环境也充满不确定性，刺激经济是不是主要靠拉动内需？
谢国忠：中国政府现在需要做两件事情，第一是把地方财政搞活，地方财政主要靠土地拉动，现在因为资金链出现问题，有很多退地，当地政府的钱回笼不回来。中国这几年财政都是向中央政府倾斜的，这种时候，中央要把财政多分配给地方。地方财政搞活了，经济就先活起来了，这解决的是一个流通性问题。
第二，当需求不足时就要刺激经济了。1998年我们是靠造公路拉动经济，这次我们要造城市基础设施，包括地铁，污水处理系统、饮用水，铁路等，这些方面是不会浪费的。
另外，政府要启动就是要重组瘦身，就像1998年那样，加快国企改革，公房出售，增加效益。税收要改革，金融体系也要改革。现在我们的金融体系赚钱全部靠政策，今后利率要竞争，汇率现在没有升值压力了，赶快浮动，为下一轮起飞做准备。
改革需要很大的勇气，中国经济现在已经面临很大困难了，不能拆东墙补西墙，混过去就算了，是下决心的时候了。
理财一周报：您刚才提到我们的金融体系主要靠政策盈利，能具体谈谈这个吗？
谢国忠：中国金融实际上是个负增值的行业，利润增加全部靠政策，是拖经济后退的一个行业。比如，银行息差是政府规定的，股市也都是政府在操纵的。企业谁能上市谁不能上市也都是政府定的，中介基本上不起作用。
中国股市有很多地方要改，首先股市上市必须登记制，然后券商要开放，我们现在全部是国企在做券商，国企连银行都做不好，还做得好券商吗？中国的情况就相当于华尔街上的投行全是国企，就是这个概念。银行利息要开放，不能让银行像印钞票一样赚钱。汇率也要继续开放，现在没有增值压力了，是实施浮动汇率改革的好时机。改革一定要有压力，压力大才会改，现在既得利益者太多了。
理财一周报：现在国内外的经济都在放缓，在这种双重压力下，是不是改革的最好时机？
谢国忠：中国都是有压力才会有明显的改革，这要看明年的压力有多大了。
理财一周报：奥运后能源价格调整是不是会继续进行？
谢国忠：如果能源的价格全部掉下来的话，中国的压力又减轻了。但是我认为这种可能性不是很大，美国的货币这么松，印了这么多钞票，能源的价格怎么可能掉下来呢？不太可能的。现在美国的金融体系基本上已经破产了，所以才会疯狂印钞票。
理财一周报：您在一篇文章中提到，下一轮经济增长应该是靠亚洲国家的相互贸易实现。能具体阐述这个观点吗？
谢国忠：中国没有贸易肯定是发展不起来的，美国现在没钱了，钱跑到哪里去了呢？都跑到出口能源产品、石油的国家去了。现在这些国家的钱多得用不完，所以贸易要想办法赚它们的钱。这个转型做好了，是经济起飞的一个必要的条件。
不过，经济起飞的前提条件是上面提到的金融改革、企业瘦身等提高经济效益的措施。
理财一周报：在您的观察中，现在有没有向这些方面转型的苗头？
谢国忠：现在做得比较成功的比如华为、中交（中国交通建设股份有限公司），都在这些国家开拓了市场。机械设备行业也有一些，基本上都是朝那个方向走。不过，我们的传统出口行业还没有转过来，比如轻纺、电子等行业。
以前我们跟美国人做生意，设计等核心领域都是美国人在做，中国就相当只有一个工厂、一个车间。企业的大脑、心脏都是在其他地方。
一个完整的商业体系需要你去做品牌、做销售、做设计，这对于很多习惯了做加工的企业来说改变是不切合实际的。企业转型说到底是人的转型，人要变的话是难上加难。满足新需求需要新的企业。
通胀时代债券市场不保险
理财一周报：最近中国政府减持了30亿美元的美国债券，此前您也建议政府减持美国债券。您认为这次减持的主要原因是什么?
谢国忠：美国国债市场最终是会回落的，现在是中国逐渐淡出的很好的时机。现在美元债券市场是有特殊力量在支持，比如说，最近一段时间大宗商品不好，很多资金没有出路，纷纷涌到债券市场。现在美国通胀指数非常不好，除非你觉得通胀会有好转，不然的话这种靠资金链支撑的市场是靠不住的。
除了减持美国国债之外，中国还需要缩短每个基金的平均期限，抛什么买什么都不是最重要的，最重要的是每一个基金平均期限要缩短。
理财一周报：截至今年6月底，中国共持有美国国债5038亿美元。中国是否应当继续减持美元债券？您认为减持到多少比较合适？
谢国忠：最近的减持数额对中国来说还是非常小的。我觉得尽量一步步来吧，先把投资从长线的退到中线，中线的退到短线，短线的在美国股市见底的时候转成美国股票，主要是指数基金。我们已经进入通胀时代，债券市场已经不保险了。等到美国股市见底时投资美股是更好的一种配置，因为公司后面是有资产的，资产是抗通胀的。
理财一周报：您的建议是投资美股，但有投行人士分析，就未来的趋势看，欧元、日元、澳元、加元已经见顶，卖掉的美元资产不太可能去购买以上货币，而是应该把撤离债市的资金用于国内基础设施投资、建立股市平准基金或者投资到香港或者其他亚洲市场。您觉得中国政府会这么做吗？
谢国忠：那不可能，这么说是对外汇储备不懂。外汇储备是货币政策管理引起的结果。政府不希望外汇增长太快才进行储备的。如果把外汇换成人民币的话就是扩大货币，就等于是在印钞票。
之所以会有外汇储备，是因为一个央行既不想让汇率升值，又不想让货币增加太快，最重要的是不想让汇率升值，所以它就买美元，发当地的货币。
理财一周报：您刚才提到投资美国股市，您认为合适的时机是在什么时候？
谢国忠：美国股市现在还不便宜，它现在市净率在两倍左右，熊市一般是要跌到1.5倍的。1998年金融危机的时候，美国股市还曾经跌破过1倍。现在美国的金融股倒是很便宜，但是不知道质量怎么样。现在美国金融业的资金数字、盈利都靠不住，所以它的PE（市盈率）、PB（市净率）也都是靠不住的。我觉得投资美股的话可能明年下半年会有机会。
中国企业破产潮一定会出现
理财一周报：既然上述投行讲法您不同意，那您是否认同中国货币政策年底会放松的说法？
谢国忠：中国货币政策放松的话就是从36000亿元的贷款放宽到40000亿元吧。但我认为这种放松空间是在政策制定的时候就已经放好了。
政策制定者在宣布政策的时候总是宣布得比能够接受的少一点。然后等大家都跟你吵架的时候再多放一点，回到你想要的位置。不过，信贷放松这也是救不了经济的，房地产开发商去年买地就买了30000亿元，这个规模的怎么能够呢？
其实中国的货币根本不紧，货币每月以16%～18%的速度在增加，全世界你去看看，哪个国家有这么松？货币政策的紧，是相对于房地产开发商的疯狂。开放商原来疯狂买土地是为了上市，到股市里面去圈钱，现在股市行情差了，没有钱就到银行借钱，银行也没有钱了，就到黑市里面去借。黑市现在利息涨得非常高，超过20%。
理财一周报：现在大家对经济放缓比较担忧，您认为经济放缓会带来哪些影响？
谢国忠：现在主要是出口在放慢，我估计未来12个月，出口有可能都会下降。出口对GDP的拉动在5%左右，2003年到现在每年出口都是以20%的增速在增加。
房地产的问题也和出口有关系，出口出现了问题，热钱就会退，房地产资金链就出现了问题。房地产对GDP的拉动又是2%～3%，出口和房地产加在一起对经济的影响比较大。经济明显放缓是肯定的了。现在每个季度都是0.5个百分点的下降，我估计，中国第三季度经济增长就将明显低于10%。
据我观察，现在房地产开发还没放缓，上半年房地产开发增长30%左右。不过，很多房地产开发商都没钱了，下半年应该不会这么猛了。
中国很多企业都是在泡沫中生存，一旦经济退潮很多企业都活不下去。我去过很多地方，见到很多这样的企业。中国企业的破产潮一定会出现。但经济调整是必然发生的，中国很多企业都是不增值的，本身就是经济的负担。这种调整都是必然的，瘦身是应该的，不瘦身的话，经济是跑不动的。
理财一周报：调整是必然的，但是也有政策效率问题。现在有很多人认为这轮宏观调整中淘汰的都是效率比较高的企业，政府需要出面救助牺牲较大的中小企业。这种观点您怎么看？
谢国忠：中国很多中小企业都是救不活的。它们中有很多本来就不会做生意，都是依靠砍价、欺诈工人、欺诈银行、欺诈供应商生存。除了价格竞争砍价之外，它们就没有其他的经营方式。这种企业从长远来说是没有生存的机会的。
只有在经济调整过程中把低效率、不该生存的企业泡沫挤掉，好的企业才会生长出来。中国现在的情况是，很多企业不会做生意还占着地不走，然后拉政府的关系，拉银行的关系，在政治上施压存活。这使得很多好的企业失去了生长机会。中国企业如果不更新换代的话，经济是不能往上走的。
理财一周报：那么现在政府说要出资救中小企业，您是不是也觉得没有这个必要？
谢国忠：中小企业借款都很小，但是很多企业实际上都是救不活的。浙江现在出了很大的问题，我去看了一下，很多企业是因为它玩房地产才出了问题，主业没有做好就更不要说了。这种情况政府还要去救，怎么救得活？亏空可大了。
我觉得政府要做的应该是不让这些企业逃走，有些企业钱都转到国外去了，你根本逮不到。我们十几年前就经历过这样的事，人都逃走了，债就没主了。
理财一周报：那政府还要去救，您认为这是出于什么考虑？
谢国忠：这些企业和当地政府都是属于共同利益集团的。
贸易转向石油新富国是经济起飞必要条件
理财一周报：出口在放缓，国际环境也充满不确定性，刺激经济是不是主要靠拉动内需？
谢国忠：中国政府现在需要做两件事情，第一是把地方财政搞活，地方财政主要靠土地拉动，现在因为资金链出现问题，有很多退地，当地政府的钱回笼不回来。中国这几年财政都是向中央政府倾斜的，这种时候，中央要把财政多分配给地方。地方财政搞活了，经济就先活起来了，这解决的是一个流通性问题。
第二，当需求不足时就要刺激经济了。1998年我们是靠造公路拉动经济，这次我们要造城市基础设施，包括地铁，污水处理系统、饮用水，铁路等，这些方面是不会浪费的。
另外，政府要启动就是要重组瘦身，就像1998年那样，加快国企改革，公房出售，增加效益。税收要改革，金融体系也要改革。现在我们的金融体系赚钱全部靠政策，今后利率要竞争，汇率现在没有升值压力了，赶快浮动，为下一轮起飞做准备。
改革需要很大的勇气，中国经济现在已经面临很大困难了，不能拆东墙补西墙，混过去就算了，是下决心的时候了。
理财一周报：您刚才提到我们的金融体系主要靠政策盈利，能具体谈谈这个吗？
谢国忠：中国金融实际上是个负增值的行业，利润增加全部靠政策，是拖经济后退的一个行业。比如，银行息差是政府规定的，股市也都是政府在操纵的。企业谁能上市谁不能上市也都是政府定的，中介基本上不起作用。
中国股市有很多地方要改，首先股市上市必须登记制，然后券商要开放，我们现在全部是国企在做券商，国企连银行都做不好，还做得好券商吗？中国的情况就相当于华尔街上的投行全是国企，就是这个概念。银行利息要开放，不能让银行像印钞票一样赚钱。汇率也要继续开放，现在没有增值压力了，是实施浮动汇率改革的好时机。改革一定要有压力，压力大才会改，现在既得利益者太多了。
理财一周报：现在国内外的经济都在放缓，在这种双重压力下，是不是改革的最好时机？
谢国忠：中国都是有压力才会有明显的改革，这要看明年的压力有多大了。
理财一周报：奥运后能源价格调整是不是会继续进行？
谢国忠：如果能源的价格全部掉下来的话，中国的压力又减轻了。但是我认为这种可能性不是很大，美国的货币这么松，印了这么多钞票，能源的价格怎么可能掉下来呢？不太可能的。现在美国的金融体系基本上已经破产了，所以才会疯狂印钞票。
理财一周报：您在一篇文章中提到，下一轮经济增长应该是靠亚洲国家的相互贸易实现。能具体阐述这个观点吗？
谢国忠：中国没有贸易肯定是发展不起来的，美国现在没钱了，钱跑到哪里去了呢？都跑到出口能源产品、石油的国家去了。现在这些国家的钱多得用不完，所以贸易要想办法赚它们的钱。这个转型做好了，是经济起飞的一个必要的条件。
不过，经济起飞的前提条件是上面提到的金融改革、企业瘦身等提高经济效益的措施。
理财一周报：在您的观察中，现在有没有向这些方面转型的苗头？
谢国忠：现在做得比较成功的比如华为、中交（中国交通建设股份有限公司），都在这些国家开拓了市场。机械设备行业也有一些，基本上都是朝那个方向走。不过，我们的传统出口行业还没有转过来，比如轻纺、电子等行业。
以前我们跟美国人做生意，设计等核心领域都是美国人在做，中国就相当只有一个工厂、一个车间。企业的大脑、心脏都是在其他地方。
一个完整的商业体系需要你去做品牌、做销售、做设计，这对于很多习惯了做加工的企业来说改变是不切合实际的。企业转型说到底是人的转型，人要变的话是难上加难。满足新需求需要新的企业。
传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯
吉姆·罗杰斯1942年出生于美国亚拉巴马州；1964年毕业于耶鲁大学。1964年到1966年，罗杰斯就读于牛津大学。罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）是是量子基金的创始人之一，国际著名的投资家和金融学教授，还是《时代》、《华盛顿邮报》、 《纽约时报》、《巴龙》、《福布斯》、《财富》、《华尔街日报》、《金融时报》的长期撰稿人。他先后两次进行环球投资之旅，足迹遍及包括中国在内的110多个国家。
引文：他来自小城镇，后来成了华尔街神童。在上世纪 70 年代，他与乔治·索罗斯合伙，成立了历史上最有名的投资团队。后来，他又摇身一变，成了金融界的夺宝奇兵，两次周游世界，在一些最不可能的地方进行着非常有利可图的投资。
嘿，吉姆，我该在阿根廷买地吗？嗯，你还是去安哥拉吧，它在非洲。
吉姆，你对黄金有何看法？如果你把你的黄金变成铅，那你赚的钱要多得多。
无论走到哪里，吉姆·罗杰斯总能碰到他的仰慕者。这对于作为量子基金的创始人之一、环球旅行被吉尼斯世界记录记载的罗杰斯来说，早已经习以为常。而当细读罗杰斯传奇的投资故事时，我们会发现他的勤奋与做事的投入、他独特的投资思维视角、他的理财方式都是值得津津乐道的。
勤奋与投入
吉姆·罗杰斯生于1942年10月19日，在5 个兄弟中排行老大，在亚拉巴马州的德莫波利斯这个小镇度过了他愉悦的童年时光。罗杰斯的父亲参加过二次世界大战的老兵，退役后，白天经营一家化工厂，晚上则兼职做会计，父亲为罗杰斯树立了勤奋工作的榜样。即使是现在，罗杰斯也会将他的很多成功都归于勤奋。我并不觉得自己聪明，但我确实非常、勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作，也很热爱自己的工作，就有成功的可能。他说，每个人都梦想着赚很多的钱，但是，我告诉你，这是不容易的。当他还是一个专职的货币经理时，他曾这样讲过：生活中最重要的事情是工作。在工作做完之前，我不会去做任何其他事情。
而后在与和索罗斯合作时，这种勤奋被表现得甚至为疯狂，在哥伦市环道上的办公室，他不停地工作--10年期间没有休过一次假。这在后来乔治·索罗斯的回忆录中曾经这样写道，罗杰斯一人干了六个人的活儿。
对于这段时期的生活，罗杰斯这样说，再也没有比市场更令我兴奋和开心的了。那就是我想做的一切。我投入了全部精力，总是急着去了解一切能够了解的东西。干这行就像不停地在做四维拼图游戏，无论你做了什么，图件每次都会发生变化，你必须每次重新把它们拼起来。我每天每刻都坐在那里，玩着这种拼图游戏，还得赶在别人之前把图拼出来，没有比这更刺激的了。
成败得失
可以说，与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金成就了二人以后的事业。到了20世纪70年代，这个基金成长超过4000％，同期内，标准普尔五百种股价指数才成长还不到50％。在1970~1980年的10年里，量子基金的复合收益高达37%，超过同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。罗杰斯在该基金中的投资据称已达1400万美元。这为37岁的罗杰斯决定壮年退休奠定了良好的经济基础。
不过罗杰斯获得如此成就并非偶然，他的投资天分从小就已经表现得淋漓尽致了。有资料表明，5岁时他开始做平生第一份工作--在棒球赛场上拣空瓶赚钱。6岁时从父亲那里借了100美元作为做生意的启动资金，购买了一台花生烘烤机，每周五晚上在当地在高中橄榄球比赛时卖烤花生和苏打水。5年后，还清欠款，并在银行的户头存有了100美元。随后，在朝鲜战争期间，他用这100美元和父亲一起到乡下去做投机生意，购买了价格正日益飞涨的牛犊，并出钱让农民饲养，希望次年出售并卖个好价钱。不过这次的投机失败了。直到20年后，罗杰斯从书本上明白了失败的原因，由于买点太高，使他们的投资被战后价格的回落吞噬得一干二净。
知道华尔街是1964年的事，他在快要毕业时，学校就业指导办公室提供的一次偶然面试机会让他得到了华尔街的一份暑期工作。由于估算智利爆发革命会使铜价上涨，公司老板就给了他一大笔钱。这也促使他1968年揣着仅有的600美元正式来到华尔街工作，也才有了与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金的机会。
不过在华尔街的这段时间，罗杰斯也曾经有过一段借债度日非常痛苦的经历，1970年毕业后罗杰斯选择投资管理行业开始了自己的职业投资生涯。最先在华尔街一家小公司当分析师，债券、股票、外汇和商品期货，什么都做。1970年，我觉得市场在走低。于是我做了卖空的决定，因为我觉得市场要跌。6个月来我都是这样操作的，后来市场起来了，我还这样操作，于是我赔了个倾家荡产，差点把摩托车也卖了。
罗杰斯说他当时想过放弃，我想干点别的事情，比如做电视，或者去当教授，或者其他别的事情。但是他意识到投资这一行给了他很多乐趣，而且如果功课做到家，如果有韧性，就总能重振雄风。他最终还是认为这是最好的工作，非常热爱这工作。自己每次犯错误都是因为没有把功课做好，不能怪运气不好，也不能怪有人操作市场，只能怪自己。罗杰斯从那段日子里得到教训：学会除非知道自己在做什么，否则最好什么也别做。也学会除非等到一个完全对自己有利的时机，否则最好不要贸然进场，这样，即使你犯下错误，也不会遭受重大伤害。
独立的投资思维
摆脱了量子基金每日 18小时的工作后，罗杰斯没有再加盟任何一家投资公司。他尝试转型为专家，时常在商业电视节目中抛头露面。为了得到哥伦比亚大学体育馆的终身会员资格，他同意在该大学商学院教授证券分析课程，以此作为交换。他最终成了一名全职教授。
罗杰斯认为投资者最重要的事情就是发展独立思考的能力。也许是投资经历让罗杰斯有着更多的感悟，他一直认为学经济的最好办法是投资做生意。他在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学时，他教的不是那种经济学院里通常学的金融课，他教授学生他所知道的东西，教学生按他投资的方法去投资，按他的思路去看市场和机会。沃伦·巴菲特曾参加过他的一个班，那是绝对令人激动的……他将真实的投资世界带入教室。巴菲特认为罗杰斯对市场大趋势的把握无人能及。
而这种新奇的投资方法成为罗杰斯成功的关键。与索罗斯分道扬镳后，罗杰斯始终没有抗拒过投资机会对他的诱惑。他以自己的方式投资，开始了他让人目眩神迷的独立投资生涯。从葡萄牙、奥地利、德国，到新加坡、巴西、新加坡，罗杰斯把赌注押在国家上的投资风格体现得淋漓尽致。他用西方金融家的眼光，洞察所到之处的投资机会，并亲身实践。如果他确定一个国家比众人相信的更加有前途时，他就会在其他的投资者意识到之前，先把赌注投入到这个国家，并获得了巨大成功。
这些我们可以从他投资股票中来了解，1982年，罗杰斯开始分批买入西德股票，1985年与1986年分批卖出，获得3倍利润。1984 年，他开始考察几乎被人放弃的奥地利股市，买进了仍在上市交易的大约 30 家公司中多数公司的股票，这笔投资在接下来几年中增值了 400% 多，以此被敬称为奥地利股市之父。
1991 年，他骑摩托车经过非洲的博茨瓦纳，惊奇地发现城里到处是高级轿车、货币可以自由兑换、国家有三年的外汇储备、政府预算和外贸都是顺差，而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票，并告诉经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果，2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。
同样在中国，1999年，罗杰斯在其第二次环球投资旅行时曾在上海证券交易所开户，并对B股市场有过一番高论。他说B股股指已从高位下跌85%，考虑到中国的惊人潜力，投资价值之大不言而喻。此后事情的发展更验证了他的判断，1999年上海B股指数只有50多点，而2001年最高到达240多点，两年多的时间获得4~6倍的利润。
不过即便这样，罗杰斯却总是称自己特别不善于掌握市场时机，是世界上最差劲的交易员。对于股市的投资，罗杰斯认为，我喜欢赚钱，让我们一起赚钱吧。最重要的是，你要知道一个非常简单的道理，低买高卖。你能做到。在股市上真正能挣到钱的那些赢家，最大特征是什么？怀疑、好奇和坚持。罗杰斯总说，他喜欢在投资时进行慎重选择，然后长期持有。他对商品的投资尤为如此。如果对自己的行为茫然无知，绝不要草率投资。与其每年在金融市场亏损2%、3%，甚至是22%，还不如把钱存在银行，这样至少每年可以收益2%或者3%。如果你不知道自己在做什么，肯定会亏钱，这也正是他进行环球旅行投资，了解世界的初衷。
理财手段
瑞士出生的经济学家和市场大师马克o法伯曾经这样评价过罗杰斯，他思想很独特，直言不讳，而且他愿意表明自己的看法。我知道他是否赚钱吗？我无法知道。因为他不理财。他只为自己理财，而且没有留下任何记录。而当人们追问罗杰斯有关其投资回报的详情时，他会说，我是亚拉巴马人。我妈妈和爸爸教导我，永远不要谈论你有多少钱、东西有多贵，还有你赚多少钱。
罗杰斯最喜欢的地方是曼哈顿上西区那套 5 层维多利亚式洋房。这座房子是一位富商于 1899 年建造的，至今仍然保留着原来的橡木和红木雕刻的墙面，另外还有几间厨房、一个送菜升降机、一部工作电梯、一个安装了按摩浴缸并能够看得见哈得逊河景色的屋顶平台。罗杰斯用很多富有异国情调的东西来装饰它，如北极熊皮制成的地毯，还有他从阿拉斯加买来的猛象长牙。1977 年，罗杰斯从第二位房主那里买来一套房子，当时纽约市处于破产边缘，房市一落千丈。他花了 10.5 万美元，而今这座房子价值逾 1500 万美元。
现在，如果你见到罗杰斯，就可以很清楚地发现，他的女儿毫无疑问已是他生活的中心。不过，罗杰斯没有为女儿购买股票，但却给她买了白金、黄金等商品。罗杰斯风趣地说：感谢上帝，我拥有一个女儿，学着中文，钱存在瑞士，还持有大量白银和黄金。罗杰斯认为，在过去的10~20年当中，全球股票有一个巨大的增长。在未来的10~15年内，美国和西方股票市场只会在目前的水平上窄幅波动。只要买入就能赚钱的年代已经过去。在未来的几年内，大家应该关注原油和原材料市场。原材料市场在上世纪八、九十年代一直处于巨大的熊市之中。现在，原材料市场已经开始启动，并可能在未来的10~0年内有一个持续的成长。一个长期的熊市已经结束，而一个大牛市刚刚开始。
同样罗杰斯表示，他的小女儿虽然开了银行账户，有瑞士的，有中国的，但没有美国的银行账户，因为他不看好美国经济。罗杰斯告诉大家，他的小女儿正在学中文，因为当今世界最重要最显着的变化是中国的崛起。将来有一天，我会把全部的钱，都投资在中国。而同样的论断在罗杰斯第一次环游世界时，拍摄播出的机车长征纪录片中有过，罗杰斯预测中国前途无量。
吉姆·罗杰斯投资哲理
●学习历史和哲学吧，干什么都比进商学院好；当服务员，去远东旅行。
●发现低买高卖的机会的办法，是寻找那些未被认识到的，或未被发现的概念或者变化。
●每当中央银行在维护某种东西的低价位时，聪明的投资者就会反其道而行之。不管赌什么，永远跟中央银行相反。
●投资的铁律就是正确认识供求关系。
●埋头苦读很有用处。必须独立思考，必须抛开羊群心理。
●绝不赔钱法则。除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。
●价值投资法则。如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进，即使买进的时机不对，你也不至于遭到重大亏损。
●投资的法则之一是袖手不管，等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。
引文：他来自小城镇，后来成了华尔街神童。在上世纪 70 年代，他与乔治·索罗斯合伙，成立了历史上最有名的投资团队。后来，他又摇身一变，成了金融界的夺宝奇兵，两次周游世界，在一些最不可能的地方进行着非常有利可图的投资。
嘿，吉姆，我该在阿根廷买地吗？嗯，你还是去安哥拉吧，它在非洲。
吉姆，你对黄金有何看法？如果你把你的黄金变成铅，那你赚的钱要多得多。
无论走到哪里，吉姆·罗杰斯总能碰到他的仰慕者。这对于作为量子基金的创始人之一、环球旅行被吉尼斯世界记录记载的罗杰斯来说，早已经习以为常。而当细读罗杰斯传奇的投资故事时，我们会发现他的勤奋与做事的投入、他独特的投资思维视角、他的理财方式都是值得津津乐道的。
勤奋与投入
吉姆·罗杰斯生于1942年10月19日，在5 个兄弟中排行老大，在亚拉巴马州的德莫波利斯这个小镇度过了他愉悦的童年时光。罗杰斯的父亲参加过二次世界大战的老兵，退役后，白天经营一家化工厂，晚上则兼职做会计，父亲为罗杰斯树立了勤奋工作的榜样。即使是现在，罗杰斯也会将他的很多成功都归于勤奋。我并不觉得自己聪明，但我确实非常、勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作，也很热爱自己的工作，就有成功的可能。他说，每个人都梦想着赚很多的钱，但是，我告诉你，这是不容易的。当他还是一个专职的货币经理时，他曾这样讲过：生活中最重要的事情是工作。在工作做完之前，我不会去做任何其他事情。
而后在与和索罗斯合作时，这种勤奋被表现得甚至为疯狂，在哥伦市环道上的办公室，他不停地工作--10年期间没有休过一次假。这在后来乔治·索罗斯的回忆录中曾经这样写道，罗杰斯一人干了六个人的活儿。
对于这段时期的生活，罗杰斯这样说，再也没有比市场更令我兴奋和开心的了。那就是我想做的一切。我投入了全部精力，总是急着去了解一切能够了解的东西。干这行就像不停地在做四维拼图游戏，无论你做了什么，图件每次都会发生变化，你必须每次重新把它们拼起来。我每天每刻都坐在那里，玩着这种拼图游戏，还得赶在别人之前把图拼出来，没有比这更刺激的了。
成败得失
可以说，与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金成就了二人以后的事业。到了20世纪70年代，这个基金成长超过4000％，同期内，标准普尔五百种股价指数才成长还不到50％。在1970~1980年的10年里，量子基金的复合收益高达37%，超过同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。罗杰斯在该基金中的投资据称已达1400万美元。这为37岁的罗杰斯决定壮年退休奠定了良好的经济基础。
不过罗杰斯获得如此成就并非偶然，他的投资天分从小就已经表现得淋漓尽致了。有资料表明，5岁时他开始做平生第一份工作--在棒球赛场上拣空瓶赚钱。6岁时从父亲那里借了100美元作为做生意的启动资金，购买了一台花生烘烤机，每周五晚上在当地在高中橄榄球比赛时卖烤花生和苏打水。5年后，还清欠款，并在银行的户头存有了100美元。随后，在朝鲜战争期间，他用这100美元和父亲一起到乡下去做投机生意，购买了价格正日益飞涨的牛犊，并出钱让农民饲养，希望次年出售并卖个好价钱。不过这次的投机失败了。直到20年后，罗杰斯从书本上明白了失败的原因，由于买点太高，使他们的投资被战后价格的回落吞噬得一干二净。
知道华尔街是1964年的事，他在快要毕业时，学校就业指导办公室提供的一次偶然面试机会让他得到了华尔街的一份暑期工作。由于估算智利爆发革命会使铜价上涨，公司老板就给了他一大笔钱。这也促使他1968年揣着仅有的600美元正式来到华尔街工作，也才有了与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金的机会。
不过在华尔街的这段时间，罗杰斯也曾经有过一段借债度日非常痛苦的经历，1970年毕业后罗杰斯选择投资管理行业开始了自己的职业投资生涯。最先在华尔街一家小公司当分析师，债券、股票、外汇和商品期货，什么都做。1970年，我觉得市场在走低。于是我做了卖空的决定，因为我觉得市场要跌。6个月来我都是这样操作的，后来市场起来了，我还这样操作，于是我赔了个倾家荡产，差点把摩托车也卖了。
罗杰斯说他当时想过放弃，我想干点别的事情，比如做电视，或者去当教授，或者其他别的事情。但是他意识到投资这一行给了他很多乐趣，而且如果功课做到家，如果有韧性，就总能重振雄风。他最终还是认为这是最好的工作，非常热爱这工作。自己每次犯错误都是因为没有把功课做好，不能怪运气不好，也不能怪有人操作市场，只能怪自己。罗杰斯从那段日子里得到教训：学会除非知道自己在做什么，否则最好什么也别做。也学会除非等到一个完全对自己有利的时机，否则最好不要贸然进场，这样，即使你犯下错误，也不会遭受重大伤害。
独立的投资思维
摆脱了量子基金每日 18小时的工作后，罗杰斯没有再加盟任何一家投资公司。他尝试转型为专家，时常在商业电视节目中抛头露面。为了得到哥伦比亚大学体育馆的终身会员资格，他同意在该大学商学院教授证券分析课程，以此作为交换。他最终成了一名全职教授。
罗杰斯认为投资者最重要的事情就是发展独立思考的能力。也许是投资经历让罗杰斯有着更多的感悟，他一直认为学经济的最好办法是投资做生意。他在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学时，他教的不是那种经济学院里通常学的金融课，他教授学生他所知道的东西，教学生按他投资的方法去投资，按他的思路去看市场和机会。沃伦·巴菲特曾参加过他的一个班，那是绝对令人激动的……他将真实的投资世界带入教室。巴菲特认为罗杰斯对市场大趋势的把握无人能及。
而这种新奇的投资方法成为罗杰斯成功的关键。与索罗斯分道扬镳后，罗杰斯始终没有抗拒过投资机会对他的诱惑。他以自己的方式投资，开始了他让人目眩神迷的独立投资生涯。从葡萄牙、奥地利、德国，到新加坡、巴西、新加坡，罗杰斯把赌注押在国家上的投资风格体现得淋漓尽致。他用西方金融家的眼光，洞察所到之处的投资机会，并亲身实践。如果他确定一个国家比众人相信的更加有前途时，他就会在其他的投资者意识到之前，先把赌注投入到这个国家，并获得了巨大成功。
这些我们可以从他投资股票中来了解，1982年，罗杰斯开始分批买入西德股票，1985年与1986年分批卖出，获得3倍利润。1984 年，他开始考察几乎被人放弃的奥地利股市，买进了仍在上市交易的大约 30 家公司中多数公司的股票，这笔投资在接下来几年中增值了 400% 多，以此被敬称为奥地利股市之父。
1991 年，他骑摩托车经过非洲的博茨瓦纳，惊奇地发现城里到处是高级轿车、货币可以自由兑换、国家有三年的外汇储备、政府预算和外贸都是顺差，而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票，并告诉经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果，2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。
同样在中国，1999年，罗杰斯在其第二次环球投资旅行时曾在上海证券交易所开户，并对B股市场有过一番高论。他说B股股指已从高位下跌85%，考虑到中国的惊人潜力，投资价值之大不言而喻。此后事情的发展更验证了他的判断，1999年上海B股指数只有50多点，而2001年最高到达240多点，两年多的时间获得4~6倍的利润。
不过即便这样，罗杰斯却总是称自己特别不善于掌握市场时机，是世界上最差劲的交易员。对于股市的投资，罗杰斯认为，我喜欢赚钱，让我们一起赚钱吧。最重要的是，你要知道一个非常简单的道理，低买高卖。你能做到。在股市上真正能挣到钱的那些赢家，最大特征是什么？怀疑、好奇和坚持。罗杰斯总说，他喜欢在投资时进行慎重选择，然后长期持有。他对商品的投资尤为如此。如果对自己的行为茫然无知，绝不要草率投资。与其每年在金融市场亏损2%、3%，甚至是22%，还不如把钱存在银行，这样至少每年可以收益2%或者3%。如果你不知道自己在做什么，肯定会亏钱，这也正是他进行环球旅行投资，了解世界的初衷。
理财手段
瑞士出生的经济学家和市场大师马克o法伯曾经这样评价过罗杰斯，他思想很独特，直言不讳，而且他愿意表明自己的看法。我知道他是否赚钱吗？我无法知道。因为他不理财。他只为自己理财，而且没有留下任何记录。而当人们追问罗杰斯有关其投资回报的详情时，他会说，我是亚拉巴马人。我妈妈和爸爸教导我，永远不要谈论你有多少钱、东西有多贵，还有你赚多少钱。
罗杰斯最喜欢的地方是曼哈顿上西区那套 5 层维多利亚式洋房。这座房子是一位富商于 1899 年建造的，至今仍然保留着原来的橡木和红木雕刻的墙面，另外还有几间厨房、一个送菜升降机、一部工作电梯、一个安装了按摩浴缸并能够看得见哈得逊河景色的屋顶平台。罗杰斯用很多富有异国情调的东西来装饰它，如北极熊皮制成的地毯，还有他从阿拉斯加买来的猛象长牙。1977 年，罗杰斯从第二位房主那里买来一套房子，当时纽约市处于破产边缘，房市一落千丈。他花了 10.5 万美元，而今这座房子价值逾 1500 万美元。
现在，如果你见到罗杰斯，就可以很清楚地发现，他的女儿毫无疑问已是他生活的中心。不过，罗杰斯没有为女儿购买股票，但却给她买了白金、黄金等商品。罗杰斯风趣地说：感谢上帝，我拥有一个女儿，学着中文，钱存在瑞士，还持有大量白银和黄金。罗杰斯认为，在过去的10~20年当中，全球股票有一个巨大的增长。在未来的10~15年内，美国和西方股票市场只会在目前的水平上窄幅波动。只要买入就能赚钱的年代已经过去。在未来的几年内，大家应该关注原油和原材料市场。原材料市场在上世纪八、九十年代一直处于巨大的熊市之中。现在，原材料市场已经开始启动，并可能在未来的10~0年内有一个持续的成长。一个长期的熊市已经结束，而一个大牛市刚刚开始。
同样罗杰斯表示，他的小女儿虽然开了银行账户，有瑞士的，有中国的，但没有美国的银行账户，因为他不看好美国经济。罗杰斯告诉大家，他的小女儿正在学中文，因为当今世界最重要最显着的变化是中国的崛起。将来有一天，我会把全部的钱，都投资在中国。而同样的论断在罗杰斯第一次环游世界时，拍摄播出的机车长征纪录片中有过，罗杰斯预测中国前途无量。
吉姆·罗杰斯投资哲理
●学习历史和哲学吧，干什么都比进商学院好；当服务员，去远东旅行。
●发现低买高卖的机会的办法，是寻找那些未被认识到的，或未被发现的概念或者变化。
●每当中央银行在维护某种东西的低价位时，聪明的投资者就会反其道而行之。不管赌什么，永远跟中央银行相反。
●投资的铁律就是正确认识供求关系。
●埋头苦读很有用处。必须独立思考，必须抛开羊群心理。
●绝不赔钱法则。除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。
●价值投资法则。如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进，即使买进的时机不对，你也不至于遭到重大亏损。
●投资的法则之一是袖手不管，等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。
传奇投资家：吉姆.罗杰斯
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)国际著名的投资家和金融学教授。他具有传奇般的投资经历。从他与金融大鳄索罗斯创立的令人闻之色变的量子基金到牛气十足的罗杰斯国际商品指数(RICI)，从两次环球投资到被Jon Train’s Money Masters of Our Time，Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards等著名年鉴收录，无不令世人为之叹服。
1942年吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)出生于美国亚拉巴马州
1964年毕业于耶鲁大学
1964年到1966年，就读于牛津大学
1970年与索罗斯共同创立了量子基金，取得了令人瞩目的成绩
1980年离开量子基金后，在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学
1989-1990年完成了第一次环球旅行，并被吉尼斯世界记录记载
1998年创立罗杰斯国际商品指数(RICI)，到2003年11月该指数已达119.73%的升幅，超过同期主要指数
1999年第二次环球旅行时，投资上海B股，同样获得巨大成功，时代(Time)称其为金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)
传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯
吉姆·罗杰斯的中国之行掀起不小的波澜，这位曾经被巴菲特称为“对大势的把握无人能及”的投资大师，传奇性不仅是他的投资历史，还有那些足以让人们为之激动的环球考察旅行。
当罗杰斯缓缓走来，给大家一个态度谦和的微笑的时候，很难想象他名字背后一连串的传奇：和索罗斯共同建立量子基金哥伦比亚大学教授，两次环游地球打破吉尼斯世界记录，被《时代周刊》称金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)。拨开缭绕的光环，我们看到的是一个勤奋、谦虚、有激情、热爱生活又风趣幽默的罗杰斯，“投资不是投机。”--这即是他投资的原则，也是他做人的准则。
环游地球为投资铺路
“当我和太太在玻利维亚的候，我们遇见那里最顶的巫师。我们给了她5美元。只要给她5美元，她就会帮助你达成愿望，而我们的愿望就是能活着回到美国。”已然60多岁的罗杰斯在中欧国际工商学院演讲时半开玩笑地说，“以后到玻利维亚一定要记着给那位巫师5美元啊--我活到现在就是最好的例子。”
罗杰斯说起自己环球旅行的时候快乐得像个小孩子，手舞足蹈、连比带划。“环游世界是我从小的梦想！”这句话他强调了很多遍。
他曾经两次环游世界，第一次在1990年，骑着摩托车，去50多个国家，花了近两年时间；第二次是1999年，开着奔驰旅行车，历时三年，途经116个国家，从冰岛出发经过欧洲、日本、中国、俄罗斯、非洲、南极、澳大利亚、南美洲然后回到美国，打破了吉尼斯世界记录。“我和太太的环球旅行有两个成果，一个是Adventure Capitalist正式出版，另一个成果就是我第一个女儿的出生，她现在只有11个月，我觉得非常幸福。”
“ADVENTURE CAPITALIST”是罗杰斯的旅行手记，他用投资家的眼光洞察所到之处的投资机会。通常，他认为进入一个国家后，只要兑换这个国家的货币，使用这个国家的货币时没有问题，在开车的过程中只要这个国家的道路交通条件良好，那这个国家就是可以投资的。
“货币确实非常重要。很多国家都实行外汇管制，所以我们为了钱的问题伤透了脑筋，有时候出于无奈还必须走私现金，然后在黑市上兑换。这些国家显然还不太适合投资。”罗杰斯不无感慨地说起他和太太在某国的遭遇--当他在当地的ATM机上取钱时，正准备拿回信用卡的当口，却不料钱被ATM机鬼神差地“吃”了进去。无处伸冤的罗杰斯最后只能找到当地的黑手党，把吃进ATM机里的钱硬生生地掏了出来。
在非洲的博茨瓦纳，他惊讶地发现城市中到处是高级轿车，当地的货币可以自由兑换，这个国家有三年的外汇储备，政府预算和外贸都是顺差，而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票，股价很低还有现金红利。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票，并委托经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果，2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。
这些故事让罗杰斯很兴奋：“我们每到一个地方，都尽量和当地人同吃同住，用他们的生活方式体会他们的生活，从中可以学到很多很多的东西，包括发现很多投资机会。”环游世界的浪漫梦想就这样和金融投资考察实现了无缝连接，就像他自己说的，“赚钱和理想融合是最美妙的事情。”
投资哲学：脚踏实地
“我人生中最成功的投资是我11个大的女儿，我有过很多成功的、失败的投资经验，但从成功中学到的东西远不及从失败中学到的多。”当记者问及他辉煌的投资历史时，罗杰斯的回答有点出人意料，却又在情理之中。
他举了个例子。“在我非常年轻的时候，有一年，我判断股市将要崩盘。在美国，你可以通过卖空来赚钱。后来确实如我所料，股市大跌，金融机构纷纷破产，一瞬间我的资金翻了三倍，当时我觉得自己实在是太聪明了。”尝了甜头后，罗杰斯判断市场将近一步下跌，于是集中了自己所有的资金大力卖空，而股市却极不合作地上涨了“最后只能斩仓，账户里一分不剩。我当时穷得把自己的摩托车都卖掉了。”事后，他发觉自己当时根本不清楚自己在做什么，自己对股市继续下跌的判断其实没有任何研究做支撑，于是他翻然醒悟，“获得成功后往往会被胜利冲昏头脑，这种时候尤其需要平静的思考。”
事实上，罗杰斯一直成功地扮演着传奇投资家的角色，这一点在他六岁的时候就已经显现。当时他获准在青年联赛上出售软饮料和花生，于是罗杰斯向爸爸借了100美元买了个烘花生的设备，五年后，他不仅归还了当初借来的“启动资金”100美元，还获得了100美元的利润。从耶鲁和牛津毕业后，罗杰斯和索罗斯共同创立了量子基金。在1970至1980年的十年里，量子基金的复合收高达37%，超过了同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。索罗斯曾经在接受记者采访时说到：罗杰斯最重要的构想应该是国防工业类股，当时国防工业完全被人忽略，从上次国防工业景气结束后，只残留一两位分析师继续研究这个行业。1980年和索罗斯分道扬镳后，1982年，罗杰斯开始分批买入当时的西德股票，1985年与1986年分批出，获得3倍利润。当时的实际情况是，从1961年一直到1982年8月，西德市从来没有出现过多头市场，完全无视这21年来西德经济的持续蓬勃发展。因此，罗杰斯认为，西德股市已经具备介入的价值，如果投资西德股市的话，可以确保不会亏损。在确认总体具备投资价值以后，罗杰斯也看到了当时的西德股市腾飞的契机--西德大选。结果，在基督教民主党赢得大选的当天，西德股市就告大涨，罗杰斯取得了巨大成功。
1984年，外界极少关注、极少了解的奥地利股市暴跌到1961年的一半时，罗杰斯亲往奥地利实地考查。经过缜密的调查研究后，他认定机会到来，于是大量购买了奥地利企业的股票、债券。第二年，奥地利股市起死回生，奥地利股市指数在暴涨中上升了145%，罗杰斯大有所获，因此美名远播，人敬称为“奥地利股市之父”。
对于投资，罗杰斯给大家的建议是，“每个人应该找到适合自己的投资方式。我本人比较喜欢那些无人关注的、股价便宜的股票。但是做出背离大众的选择是需要勇气的，而且我认为最重要的是扎实的研究和分析。”他一再强调“如果想要长期地赚大钱，一定要脚踏实地。”
买中国B股赚了大钱
罗杰斯在ADVENTURE CAPITALIST的中文版序言中写到：“在我游历的这116个国家中，我最喜欢中国，很想在中国上海定居。”他也曾经在很多个场合中说，“19世纪是英国的世纪，20世纪是美国的世纪，21世纪是中国的世纪。”
罗杰斯显然并不只是说说已。1999年途径上海时，他特地去海通证券营业部开立了B股账户。“之前，所有的朋友都说，绝对不要投资中国B股。但我知道，如果他们那样说的话，我就应该去投资。”事实是，B股之后确实连续上涨，罗杰斯获了500%的利润。
他认为，最近尽管有宏观调控的忧虑，中国还是有很多投资机会，比如期货、旅游或者交通行业。“我接下去会考察一下上海商品交易和大连商品交易所，为下一轮的投资做准备。我还会为我女儿开立一个中国的股票交易账户，虽然她才11个月。”面对大家的惊讶表情，罗杰斯补充说，“我已经准备让我女儿学习中文了，我要让她了解中国。”
罗杰斯七条投资法则
1．勤奋。
“我并不觉得自己聪明，但我确实非常、非常、非常勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作，也很热爱自己的工作，就有成功的可能”。这一点，索罗斯也加以证实，在接受记者采访时，索罗斯说，“罗杰斯是杰出的分析师，而且特别勤劳，一个人做六个人的工作”。
评价：一份耕耘一份收获，但也要注意看“场所”。勤奋首先是一种精神状态：每次行动之先，是慎密的思考和研究：是“精打细算之后准确地出击”！
2．独立思考。
“我总是发现自己埋头苦读很有用处。我发现，如果我只按照自己所理解的行事，既容易又有利可图，而不是要别人告诉我该怎么做。”罗杰斯从来都不重视华尔街的证券分析家。他认为，这些人随大流，而事实上没有人能靠随大流而发财。“我可以保证，市场永远是错的。必须独立思考，必须抛开羊群心理。”
评价：“每个人都必须找到自己成功的方式，这种方式不是政府所引导的，也不是任何咨询机构所能提供的，必须自己去寻找。”-吉姆-罗杰斯
3．别进商学院。
“学习历史和哲学吧，干什么都比进商学院好；当服务员，去远东旅行。”罗杰斯在哥伦比亚经济学院教书时，总是对所有的学生说，不应该来读经济学院，这是浪费时间，因为算上机会成本，读书期间要花掉大约10万美元，这笔钱与其用来上学，还不如用来投资做生意，虽然可能赚也可能赔，但无论赚赔都比坐在教室里两三年，听那些从来没有做过生意的“资深教授”对此大放厥词地空谈要学到的东西多。
评价：成功并不完全取决于专业知识，更主要的是一种思维方法和行为能力。哲学能使人聪明，而历史使人温故而知新，更加明智。
4．绝不赔钱法则。
“除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。假如你在两年内靠投资赚了50％的利润，然而在第三年却亏了50％，那么，你还不如把资金投入国债市场。 你应该耐心等待好时机，赚了钱获利了结，然后等待下一次的机会。如此，你才可以战胜别人。”“所以，我的忠告就是绝不赔钱，做自己熟悉的事，等到发现大好机会才投钱下去。”
评价：知己知彼，百战百胜！不打无准备之仗！
5．价值投资法则。
如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进，即使买进的时机不对，你也不至于遭到重大亏损。“平常时间，最好静坐，愈少买卖愈好，永远耐心地等候投资机会的来临。”“我不认为我是一个炒家，我只是一位机会主义者，等候机会出现，在十足信心的情形下才出击”罗杰斯如是说。
评价：“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”：不会全军复没！当然，最好是恰到好处契准目标！
6．等待催化因素的出现。
市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振。为了避免使资金陷入如一潭死水的市场中，你就应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。
评价：“万事具备，只欠东风”耐心等待时机和契机！
7．静若处子法则。
“投资的法则之一是袖手不管，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做。他们可能会说‘看看我有多高明，又赚了3倍。’然后他们又去做别的事情，他们就是没有办法坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”罗杰斯对“试试手气”的说法很不以为然。“这实际上是导致投资者倾家荡产的绝路。若干在股市遭到亏损的人会说：‘赔了一笔，我一定要设法把它赚回来。’越是遭遇这种情况，就越应该平心静气，等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。”
评价：一旦出击，就静待佳音，放手不管；遭遇不顺，马上休息。
1942年吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)出生于美国亚拉巴马州
1964年毕业于耶鲁大学
1964年到1966年，就读于牛津大学
1970年与索罗斯共同创立了量子基金，取得了令人瞩目的成绩
1980年离开量子基金后，在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学
1989-1990年完成了第一次环球旅行，并被吉尼斯世界记录记载
1998年创立罗杰斯国际商品指数(RICI)，到2003年11月该指数已达119.73%的升幅，超过同期主要指数
1999年第二次环球旅行时，投资上海B股，同样获得巨大成功，时代(Time)称其为金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)
传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯
吉姆·罗杰斯的中国之行掀起不小的波澜，这位曾经被巴菲特称为“对大势的把握无人能及”的投资大师，传奇性不仅是他的投资历史，还有那些足以让人们为之激动的环球考察旅行。
当罗杰斯缓缓走来，给大家一个态度谦和的微笑的时候，很难想象他名字背后一连串的传奇：和索罗斯共同建立量子基金哥伦比亚大学教授，两次环游地球打破吉尼斯世界记录，被《时代周刊》称金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)。拨开缭绕的光环，我们看到的是一个勤奋、谦虚、有激情、热爱生活又风趣幽默的罗杰斯，“投资不是投机。”--这即是他投资的原则，也是他做人的准则。
环游地球为投资铺路
“当我和太太在玻利维亚的候，我们遇见那里最顶的巫师。我们给了她5美元。只要给她5美元，她就会帮助你达成愿望，而我们的愿望就是能活着回到美国。”已然60多岁的罗杰斯在中欧国际工商学院演讲时半开玩笑地说，“以后到玻利维亚一定要记着给那位巫师5美元啊--我活到现在就是最好的例子。”
罗杰斯说起自己环球旅行的时候快乐得像个小孩子，手舞足蹈、连比带划。“环游世界是我从小的梦想！”这句话他强调了很多遍。
他曾经两次环游世界，第一次在1990年，骑着摩托车，去50多个国家，花了近两年时间；第二次是1999年，开着奔驰旅行车，历时三年，途经116个国家，从冰岛出发经过欧洲、日本、中国、俄罗斯、非洲、南极、澳大利亚、南美洲然后回到美国，打破了吉尼斯世界记录。“我和太太的环球旅行有两个成果，一个是Adventure Capitalist正式出版，另一个成果就是我第一个女儿的出生，她现在只有11个月，我觉得非常幸福。”
“ADVENTURE CAPITALIST”是罗杰斯的旅行手记，他用投资家的眼光洞察所到之处的投资机会。通常，他认为进入一个国家后，只要兑换这个国家的货币，使用这个国家的货币时没有问题，在开车的过程中只要这个国家的道路交通条件良好，那这个国家就是可以投资的。
“货币确实非常重要。很多国家都实行外汇管制，所以我们为了钱的问题伤透了脑筋，有时候出于无奈还必须走私现金，然后在黑市上兑换。这些国家显然还不太适合投资。”罗杰斯不无感慨地说起他和太太在某国的遭遇--当他在当地的ATM机上取钱时，正准备拿回信用卡的当口，却不料钱被ATM机鬼神差地“吃”了进去。无处伸冤的罗杰斯最后只能找到当地的黑手党，把吃进ATM机里的钱硬生生地掏了出来。
在非洲的博茨瓦纳，他惊讶地发现城市中到处是高级轿车，当地的货币可以自由兑换，这个国家有三年的外汇储备，政府预算和外贸都是顺差，而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票，股价很低还有现金红利。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票，并委托经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果，2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。
这些故事让罗杰斯很兴奋：“我们每到一个地方，都尽量和当地人同吃同住，用他们的生活方式体会他们的生活，从中可以学到很多很多的东西，包括发现很多投资机会。”环游世界的浪漫梦想就这样和金融投资考察实现了无缝连接，就像他自己说的，“赚钱和理想融合是最美妙的事情。”
投资哲学：脚踏实地
“我人生中最成功的投资是我11个大的女儿，我有过很多成功的、失败的投资经验，但从成功中学到的东西远不及从失败中学到的多。”当记者问及他辉煌的投资历史时，罗杰斯的回答有点出人意料，却又在情理之中。
他举了个例子。“在我非常年轻的时候，有一年，我判断股市将要崩盘。在美国，你可以通过卖空来赚钱。后来确实如我所料，股市大跌，金融机构纷纷破产，一瞬间我的资金翻了三倍，当时我觉得自己实在是太聪明了。”尝了甜头后，罗杰斯判断市场将近一步下跌，于是集中了自己所有的资金大力卖空，而股市却极不合作地上涨了“最后只能斩仓，账户里一分不剩。我当时穷得把自己的摩托车都卖掉了。”事后，他发觉自己当时根本不清楚自己在做什么，自己对股市继续下跌的判断其实没有任何研究做支撑，于是他翻然醒悟，“获得成功后往往会被胜利冲昏头脑，这种时候尤其需要平静的思考。”
事实上，罗杰斯一直成功地扮演着传奇投资家的角色，这一点在他六岁的时候就已经显现。当时他获准在青年联赛上出售软饮料和花生，于是罗杰斯向爸爸借了100美元买了个烘花生的设备，五年后，他不仅归还了当初借来的“启动资金”100美元，还获得了100美元的利润。从耶鲁和牛津毕业后，罗杰斯和索罗斯共同创立了量子基金。在1970至1980年的十年里，量子基金的复合收高达37%，超过了同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。索罗斯曾经在接受记者采访时说到：罗杰斯最重要的构想应该是国防工业类股，当时国防工业完全被人忽略，从上次国防工业景气结束后，只残留一两位分析师继续研究这个行业。1980年和索罗斯分道扬镳后，1982年，罗杰斯开始分批买入当时的西德股票，1985年与1986年分批出，获得3倍利润。当时的实际情况是，从1961年一直到1982年8月，西德市从来没有出现过多头市场，完全无视这21年来西德经济的持续蓬勃发展。因此，罗杰斯认为，西德股市已经具备介入的价值，如果投资西德股市的话，可以确保不会亏损。在确认总体具备投资价值以后，罗杰斯也看到了当时的西德股市腾飞的契机--西德大选。结果，在基督教民主党赢得大选的当天，西德股市就告大涨，罗杰斯取得了巨大成功。
1984年，外界极少关注、极少了解的奥地利股市暴跌到1961年的一半时，罗杰斯亲往奥地利实地考查。经过缜密的调查研究后，他认定机会到来，于是大量购买了奥地利企业的股票、债券。第二年，奥地利股市起死回生，奥地利股市指数在暴涨中上升了145%，罗杰斯大有所获，因此美名远播，人敬称为“奥地利股市之父”。
对于投资，罗杰斯给大家的建议是，“每个人应该找到适合自己的投资方式。我本人比较喜欢那些无人关注的、股价便宜的股票。但是做出背离大众的选择是需要勇气的，而且我认为最重要的是扎实的研究和分析。”他一再强调“如果想要长期地赚大钱，一定要脚踏实地。”
买中国B股赚了大钱
罗杰斯在ADVENTURE CAPITALIST的中文版序言中写到：“在我游历的这116个国家中，我最喜欢中国，很想在中国上海定居。”他也曾经在很多个场合中说，“19世纪是英国的世纪，20世纪是美国的世纪，21世纪是中国的世纪。”
罗杰斯显然并不只是说说已。1999年途径上海时，他特地去海通证券营业部开立了B股账户。“之前，所有的朋友都说，绝对不要投资中国B股。但我知道，如果他们那样说的话，我就应该去投资。”事实是，B股之后确实连续上涨，罗杰斯获了500%的利润。
他认为，最近尽管有宏观调控的忧虑，中国还是有很多投资机会，比如期货、旅游或者交通行业。“我接下去会考察一下上海商品交易和大连商品交易所，为下一轮的投资做准备。我还会为我女儿开立一个中国的股票交易账户，虽然她才11个月。”面对大家的惊讶表情，罗杰斯补充说，“我已经准备让我女儿学习中文了，我要让她了解中国。”
罗杰斯七条投资法则
1．勤奋。
“我并不觉得自己聪明，但我确实非常、非常、非常勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作，也很热爱自己的工作，就有成功的可能”。这一点，索罗斯也加以证实，在接受记者采访时，索罗斯说，“罗杰斯是杰出的分析师，而且特别勤劳，一个人做六个人的工作”。
评价：一份耕耘一份收获，但也要注意看“场所”。勤奋首先是一种精神状态：每次行动之先，是慎密的思考和研究：是“精打细算之后准确地出击”！
2．独立思考。
“我总是发现自己埋头苦读很有用处。我发现，如果我只按照自己所理解的行事，既容易又有利可图，而不是要别人告诉我该怎么做。”罗杰斯从来都不重视华尔街的证券分析家。他认为，这些人随大流，而事实上没有人能靠随大流而发财。“我可以保证，市场永远是错的。必须独立思考，必须抛开羊群心理。”
评价：“每个人都必须找到自己成功的方式，这种方式不是政府所引导的，也不是任何咨询机构所能提供的，必须自己去寻找。”-吉姆-罗杰斯
3．别进商学院。
“学习历史和哲学吧，干什么都比进商学院好；当服务员，去远东旅行。”罗杰斯在哥伦比亚经济学院教书时，总是对所有的学生说，不应该来读经济学院，这是浪费时间，因为算上机会成本，读书期间要花掉大约10万美元，这笔钱与其用来上学，还不如用来投资做生意，虽然可能赚也可能赔，但无论赚赔都比坐在教室里两三年，听那些从来没有做过生意的“资深教授”对此大放厥词地空谈要学到的东西多。
评价：成功并不完全取决于专业知识，更主要的是一种思维方法和行为能力。哲学能使人聪明，而历史使人温故而知新，更加明智。
4．绝不赔钱法则。
“除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。假如你在两年内靠投资赚了50％的利润，然而在第三年却亏了50％，那么，你还不如把资金投入国债市场。 你应该耐心等待好时机，赚了钱获利了结，然后等待下一次的机会。如此，你才可以战胜别人。”“所以，我的忠告就是绝不赔钱，做自己熟悉的事，等到发现大好机会才投钱下去。”
评价：知己知彼，百战百胜！不打无准备之仗！
5．价值投资法则。
如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进，即使买进的时机不对，你也不至于遭到重大亏损。“平常时间，最好静坐，愈少买卖愈好，永远耐心地等候投资机会的来临。”“我不认为我是一个炒家，我只是一位机会主义者，等候机会出现，在十足信心的情形下才出击”罗杰斯如是说。
评价：“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”：不会全军复没！当然，最好是恰到好处契准目标！
6．等待催化因素的出现。
市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振。为了避免使资金陷入如一潭死水的市场中，你就应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。
评价：“万事具备，只欠东风”耐心等待时机和契机！
7．静若处子法则。
“投资的法则之一是袖手不管，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做。他们可能会说‘看看我有多高明，又赚了3倍。’然后他们又去做别的事情，他们就是没有办法坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”罗杰斯对“试试手气”的说法很不以为然。“这实际上是导致投资者倾家荡产的绝路。若干在股市遭到亏损的人会说：‘赔了一笔，我一定要设法把它赚回来。’越是遭遇这种情况，就越应该平心静气，等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。”
评价：一旦出击，就静待佳音，放手不管；遭遇不顺，马上休息。
国际著名投资大师 JIM ROGERS 定居新加坡
国际著名投资家和金融学教授Jim Rogers［美国人］，是一位曾被时代杂志称其为金融界的印地安那.琼斯（the Indiana Jones of finance），还被股神巴菲特称为"对大势的把握无人能及的投资大师"
Rogers深信中国将是21世纪最重要的国家，为了要让女兒能讲流利华语，拥有深厚的中华文化底蕴，他选定新加坡。
他说：新加坡空气清新、学校教华文，医疗卫生好、对我和妻子耒说、是个完美的城市。
他也看好中国，他说：我是一个喜欢读历史的人，据我所知，世界上没有一个国家能够大起大落四五次之多。埃及、罗馬和英国都只兴盛一次，中国却兴盛了四五次，我不知道为什么他们有这份能耐，也许是这个国家的基因使然吧。
"中国虽然还自称是共产主义国家，其实，他们是全世界最优秀的资本主义国家。就象意大利还自称是天主教国家，其实不是，我们不必在意这些标签。
他说：基于种种原因，我的判断也许有错，但是掌握一个全世界每天有13亿人在讲的語文，了解它的文化总好过叫她去学只有700万人讲的丹麦语。
中国当然还有很多问题，就像美国在19世纪遭遇15次经济萧条，内战，没有人权等等....，但这些灾难並没有阻止它后来的成功。
Rogers深信中国将是21世纪最重要的国家，为了要让女兒能讲流利华语，拥有深厚的中华文化底蕴，他选定新加坡。
他说：新加坡空气清新、学校教华文，医疗卫生好、对我和妻子耒说、是个完美的城市。
他也看好中国，他说：我是一个喜欢读历史的人，据我所知，世界上没有一个国家能够大起大落四五次之多。埃及、罗馬和英国都只兴盛一次，中国却兴盛了四五次，我不知道为什么他们有这份能耐，也许是这个国家的基因使然吧。
"中国虽然还自称是共产主义国家，其实，他们是全世界最优秀的资本主义国家。就象意大利还自称是天主教国家，其实不是，我们不必在意这些标签。
他说：基于种种原因，我的判断也许有错，但是掌握一个全世界每天有13亿人在讲的語文，了解它的文化总好过叫她去学只有700万人讲的丹麦语。
中国当然还有很多问题，就像美国在19世纪遭遇15次经济萧条，内战，没有人权等等....，但这些灾难並没有阻止它后来的成功。
Jim Rogers
James B. Rogers, Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and financial commentator. He is co-founder, along with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund, and is a college professor, author, world traveler, economic commentator, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).
Rogers, whose full name is James Beeland Rogers, was born in Wetumpka, Alabama. He grew up in Demopolis, getting started in business at the age of five, picking up bottles at baseball games. He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick, after graduating with a bachelor's degree from Yale University in 1964. Rogers then acquired a master's degree from Balliol College, Oxford University in 1966. After Oxford, Rogers returned to the U.S. and enlisted in the army for a few years.
In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the fund gained 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47% (963.99/800.36). It was one of the first truly international funds.
In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and traveled on motorcycle through China. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.
In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker.
In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its 3 sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index.
Between January 1, 1999 and May 1, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure.
On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business which airs every Saturday. He has a daughter, Happy, born in 2003. In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. In this book, Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures. Rogers contends this paper shows that commodities investment is one of the best investments over time, which is a concept somewhat at odds with conventional investment thinking.
In Sep. 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 15 million USD and moved to Singapore. This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers' daughter is being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says. "Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908," he said. Also, he is quoted to say: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia." In an CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in Asia are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment to be himself motivated and driven. He said during that interview that, this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his daughter.
Rogers, whose full name is James Beeland Rogers, was born in Wetumpka, Alabama. He grew up in Demopolis, getting started in business at the age of five, picking up bottles at baseball games. He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick, after graduating with a bachelor's degree from Yale University in 1964. Rogers then acquired a master's degree from Balliol College, Oxford University in 1966. After Oxford, Rogers returned to the U.S. and enlisted in the army for a few years.
In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the fund gained 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47% (963.99/800.36). It was one of the first truly international funds.
In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and traveled on motorcycle through China. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.
In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker.
In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its 3 sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index.
Between January 1, 1999 and May 1, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure.
On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business which airs every Saturday. He has a daughter, Happy, born in 2003. In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. In this book, Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures. Rogers contends this paper shows that commodities investment is one of the best investments over time, which is a concept somewhat at odds with conventional investment thinking.
In Sep. 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 15 million USD and moved to Singapore. This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers' daughter is being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says. "Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908," he said. Also, he is quoted to say: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia." In an CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in Asia are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment to be himself motivated and driven. He said during that interview that, this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his daughter.
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