S-Reits is in a sweet spot.
While healthy underlying fundamentals should translate into quality 4Q10 earnings, the depressed interest rate environment will benefit the sector through lower refinancing costs and provide cheap funding for yield accretive acquisitions. Furthermore, CLSA’s expectation of a strengthening SGD (S$1.15/USD by end of 2011) will garner higher interest among foreign institutional investors which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax. Maintain Overweight.
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be in line with our expectations.
3Q10 revenue growth of 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY were driven by both organic and inorganic growth, we expect the trend to sustain going into 4Q10.
Rising occupancies, positive rental reversions and contribution from acquisitions were key trends over the past few quarters.
Sector Ebitda margins improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates from by the government.
Interest rates to remain depressed
CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with SIBOR at 0.20% over this period.
Depressed interest rates will continue to benefit the S-Reits through lower cost of debt and provide cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
SGD1.3016/USD is currently near a 10year low.
Expect MAS to combat rising inflation (6.7% CLSA 2011 forecast) by further appreciating the currency in 2011. CLSA forecast this to hit SGD1.15/USD by 2011.
This suggests an 11.6% currency appreciation, fuelling interest among US and foreign based funds which are currently subjected to a 10% withholding tax.
Local Reits are beneficiaries – CMT, AREIT, CREIT, Cache, MIT, Suntec, FCT
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain Overweight on S-Reits.
Further catalysts in the sector include lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings and DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions.
The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation.
We like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. (ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit).
We expect no surprises for 4Q10
We expect 4Q10 earnings outlook for S-Reit to be healthy with the first results kicking off next Monday. 3Q10 revenue growth of Reits under our coverage showed a 1.1% QoQ and 5.9% YoY increase and we expect the trend to sustain into 4Q10 driven by both organic and inorganic growth. Most of the Reits under our coverage benefitted not only from rising occupancies and positive rental reversions but also new earnings contribution from acquisitions made in 2010.
Reits which benefitted from higher occupancies include Suntec Reit, Ascott Reit and CMT. Meanwhile, K-Reit and Cambridge Reit which divested part of their portfolio saw negative growth sequentially. However, we expect topline growth to improve as K-Reit’s MBFC phase 1 acquisition starts to contribute in 1Q11 and Cambridge Reit continues on its acquisition expansion mode.
Sequentially, Ebitda margins for the sector also improved by 90bps QoQ but slipped by 50bps YoY as a result of the cessation of property tax rebates granted by the government in 2010. Along with the acquisitions, higher trust expenses, management fees and maintenance expenses also contributed to the margin erosion on a YoY basis.
Interest rates to remain depressed.
The depressed interest rates in Singapore will continue to benefit the S-Reits both in terms of refinancing as well as providing cheap funding for acquisitions in the next 12 months. CLSA’s economics team forecasts interest rates in Singapore to remain low till 2012 with the Singapore interbank offer rates at 0.20% over this period. With such low interest rates, we expect asset acquisitions in the sector to gain further traction. Cross border Reits would better positioned as they are able to tap into higher yielding assets outside of Singapore in our view.
S-Reits to benefit from currency appreciation
The SGD currently at SGD1.3016/USD is near a 10year low and just 1.5% above the all time low of SGD1.2822/USD on 4th November 2010. We expect the Singapore dollar’s strength to persist throughout 2011 driven by MAS’s policy to combat inflation (CLSA forecast of 6.7% in 2011) through appreciating the SGD currency. Our economics team forecast the Singapore dollar to touch SGD$1.15/USD by end of the year and even lower at SGD$1.13/USD by end of 2012. This suggests that the SGD could potentially appreciate by a further 11.6% by end of the year.
The prospect of an appreciating currency could level the playing field for US based funds and generate a higher level of interests in the S-Reits sector among these US based funds. Currently, foreign institutional investors are subjected to a 10% withholding tax on distributions from the Reits. With the forecast of an 11.6% appreciation in the SGD/USD, the 10% withholding tax impact will essentially be negated in our view. Key beneficiaries among the SReits include purely Singapore focused Reits, CMT, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, Cache Logistic, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CCT, Suntec Reit and Frasers CentrePoint Trust.
Maintain Overweight
With healthy sector fundamentals, we continue to maintain our Overweight on the S-Reits. Further catalysts in the sector can come in the form of lower average cost of debt through debt refinancings in the low interest rate environment as well as DPU growth through yield accretive acquisitions. The appreciating Singapore dollar also positions the sector well for overseas investors providing solid yields with potential currency appreciation. In this space, we like the Retail, Industrial and select office Reits. Stocks which we have a positive recommendation includes ART, AREIT, Cambridge Reit, MLT, CMT, FCT, KREIT and Suntec Reit.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Richard Russell’s Wisdom: Rich Man Poor Man
Richard Russell has been writing and publishing the Dow Theory Letters since 1958, and never has he missed an issue! It is the longest newsletter service continuously published by one person in the investment business. Richard is now 80 years old, and writes an extremely popular daily e-letter, full of commentary on the markets and whatever interests him that day. He gets up at 3 am or so and starts his daily (massive) reading and finishes the letter just after the markets close.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
He was the first writer to recommend gold stocks in 1960. He called the top of the 1949-66 bull market, and called the bottom of the bear market in 1974 almost to the day, predicting a new bull market. (Think how tough it was to call for a bull market in late 1974, when things looked really miserable!) He was a bombardier in WWII, lived through the Depression, wars, and bull and bear markets. I would say that Russell is one of those true innate market geniuses that have simply forgotten more than most of us will ever know, except I am not certain he has forgotten anything. His daily letter is loaded with references and wisdom from the past and gives us a guide to the future. (You can learn more – and subscribe! – at www.dowtheoryletters.com.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Richard Russell
For the average investor, you and me, we’re not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few rules and a few thoughts on investing that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
I. The Power of Compounding
Rule 1: Compounding. One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you’ve got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation — and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the “money bible.” What’s the money bible? Simple, it’s a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. You need knowledge of the mathematical tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious — compounding may involve sacrifice (you can’t spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including the following extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306.
In this study we assume that investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 into his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions — he’s finished.
A second investor, A, makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he’s 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A’s 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It’s a study I’ve lived by, and I can tell you, “It works.” You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills, or say with five-year T-notes.
RULE 2: Don’t Lose Money.This may sound naive, but believe me it isn’t. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money; or I should say, you must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big-time — in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own businesses.
Rule 3: Rich Man, Poor Man.In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur, and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN’T NEED THE MARKETS. I can’t begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one’s mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one’s money.
The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money-market funds, stocks, and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to “make money” in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the “giveaway” table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn’t mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to “make money.” And in return he’s always pressuring the market to “do something” for him. But sadly, the market isn’t interested. When the little guy isn’t buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he’s off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he’s spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he’s “investing” in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he’s a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn’t understand values, so he constantly overpays. He doesn’t comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn’t understand money. He’s never heard the adage, “He who understands interest, earns it. He who doesn’t understand interest, pays it.” The little guy is the typical American, and he’s deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he’s always sweating — sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car, or his lawn mower. He’s impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money — fast. And he dreams of those “big, juicy mega-bucks.” In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this “money-nerd” spends his life dashing up the financial down escalator.
But here’s the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he’d have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
Rule 4: Values. The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety, (b) an attractive return, and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
II. Time
TIME: Here’s something they won’t tell you at your local brokerage office or in the “How to Beat the Market” books. All investing and speculation is basically an exercise in attempting to beat time.
“Russell, what are you talking about?”
Just what I said — when you try to pick the winning stock or when you try to sell out near the top of a bull market or when you try in-and-out trading, you may not realize it but what you’re doing is trying to beat time.
Time is the single most valuable asset you can ever have in your investment arsenal. The problem is that none of us has enough of it.
But let’s indulge in a bit of fantasy. Let’s say you have 200 years to live, 200 years in which to invest. Here’s what you could do. You could buy $20,000 worth of municipal bonds yielding, say, 5.5%.
At 5.5% money doubles in 13 years. So here’s your plan: each time your money doubles you add another $10,000. So at the end of 13 years you have $40,000 plus the $10,000 you’ve added, meaning that at the end of 13 years you have $50,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $100,000, you add $10,000, and then you have $110,000. You reinvest it all in 5.5% munis, and at the end of the next 13 years you have $220,000 and you add $10,000, making it $230,000.
At the end of the next 13 years you have $460,000 and you add $10,000, making it $470,000.
In 200 years there are 15.3 doubles. You do the math. By the end of the 200th year you wouldn’t know what to do with all your money. It would be coming out of your ears. And all with minimum risk.
So with enough time, you would be rich — guaranteed. You wouldn’t have to waste any time picking the right stock or the right group or the right mutual fund. You would just compound your way to riches, using your greatest asset: time.
There’s only one problem: in the real world you’re not going to live 200 years. But if you start young enough or if you start your kids early, you or they might have anywhere from 30 to 60 years of time ahead of you.
Because most people have run out of time, they spend endless hours and nervous energy trying to beat time, which, by the way, is really what investing is all about. Pick a stock that advances from 3 to 100, and if you’ve put enough money in that stock you’ll have beaten time. Or join a company that gives you a million options, and your option moves up from 3 to 25 and again you’ve beaten time.
How about this real example of beating time. John Walter joined AT&T, but after nine short months he was out of a job. The complaint was that Walter “lacked intellectual leadership.” Walter got $26 million for that little stint in a severance package. That’s what you call really beating time. Of course, a few of us might have another word for it — and for AT&T.
III. Hope
HOPE: It’s human nature to be optimistic. It’s human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what’s the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.
Ironically, it doesn’t work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.
So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side — and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn’t play any part in this process. You don’t need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.
Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.
Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.
In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.
If the stock market turns bearish, and you’re staying put with your whole position, and you’re HOPING that what you see is not really happening — then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn’t going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit — while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.
In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.
IV. Acting
ACTING: A few days ago a young subscriber asked me, “Russell, you’ve been dealing with the markets since the late 1940s. This is a strange question, but what is the most important lesson you’ve learned in all that time?”
I didn’t have to think too long. I told him, “The most important lesson I’ve learned comes from something Freud said. He said, ‘Thinking is rehearsing.’ What Freud meant was that thinking is no substitute for acting. In this world, in investing, in any field, there is no substitute for taking action.”
This brings up another story which illustrates the same theme. J.P. Morgan was “Master of the Universe” back in the 1920s. One day a young man came up to Morgan and said, “Mr. Morgan, I’m sorry to bother you, but I own some stocks that have been acting poorly, and I’m very anxious about these stocks. In fact worrying about those stocks is starting to ruin my health. Yet, I still like the stocks. It’s a terrible dilemma. What do you think I should do, sir?”
Without hesitating Morgan said, “Young man, sell to the sleeping point.”
The lesson is the same. There’s no substitute for acting. In the business of investing or the business of life, thinking is not going to do it for you. Thinking is just rehearsing. You must learn to act.
That’s the single most important lesson that I’ve learned in this business.
Again, and I’ve written about this episode before, a very wealthy and successful investor once said to me, “Russell, do you know why stockbrokers never become rich in this business?”
I confessed that I didn’t know. He explained, “They don’t get rich because they never believe their own bullshit.”
Again, it’s the same lesson. If you want to make money (or get rich) in a bull market, thinking and talking isn’t going to do it. You’ve got to buy stocks. Brokers never do that. Do you know one broker who has?
A painful lesson: Back in 1991 when we had a perfect opportunity, we could have ended Saddam Hussein’s career, and we could have done it with ease. But those in command, for political reasons, didn’t want to face the adverse publicity of taking additional US casualties. So we stopped short, and Saddam was home free. We were afraid to act. And now we’re dealing with that failure to act with another and messier war.
In my own life many of the mistakes I’ve made have come because I forgot or ignored the “acting lesson.” Thinking is rehearsing, and I was rehearsing instead of acting. Bad marriages, bad investments, lost opportunities, bad business decisions — all made worse because we fail for any number of reasons to act.
The reasons to act are almost always better than the reasons you can think up not to act. If you, my dear readers, can understand the meaning of what is expressed in this one sentence, then believe me, you’ve learned a most valuable lesson. It’s a lesson that has saved my life many times. And I mean literally, it’s a lesson that has saved my life.
Why REITs and Business Trust are not always good investments
valuebuddies.com is probably the place you want to be if you are into fundamental analysis. And the most interesting discussion that I was informed taking place is a discussion on REITs valuation.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
One respected forumer d.o.g. made some great comments and I just find that I need to highlight them to investors that never had to experience what happen in the credit crunch in the 2007-2008 bear market.
Back then, a lot of REITs did rights issue because the cost of getting debts refinancing is so high that it doesn’t make sense for REITs.
It soft of highlights a lot of negatives of REITs. But the general idea d.o.g. is driving across is that REITs can be good or bad, depending on how an investor evaluates fundamentals and valuation. The general consensus is that REITs exist to benefit the sponsers to cash out on it to get money and lessen risks rather than benefit the owners.
Generally, no business trust will pay down its debts, because it is not in the interest of the trust manager to do so. The trust manager is paid as a percentage of assets, not equity. Therefore, the incentive is to borrow as much money as possible to raise the assets under management, thus raising fees, and never pay down the debt except under duress from banks.
An investor in a business trust has to understand that the trust structure is basically a packaging gimmick. It is given tax incentives by the authorities to encourage a more “sophisticated” capital market. Essentially, the original owner of the assets can enjoy tax savings if he owns the assets through a trust instead of within a normal corporate structure. With an IPO his ownership decreases, but he then enjoys the management fees. As a result he gains several advantages:
1. The management fees are economically an inflation-indexed annuity;
2. Partial asset divestment through the IPO raises cash for other higher-return projects;
3. Reduced ownership reduces the amount needed to fund a future rights issue; and
4. Trust distributions are taxed at a reduced rate (normally 10%)
Net-net, the overall income decreases slightly as the reduced share of trust income is partly offset by the management fees, but the potential liability decreases greatly. It is a huge risk-reward improvement.
Investors should not harbour any delusions that REITs are created primarily for their benefit. REITs are created first and foremost to help owners dispose of unwanted assets.
As a general rule, the best assets do not get sold into a REIT, they are held forever by the original owner. From a purely rational perspective, REITs are simply a convenient dumping ground to offload undesirable assets to a gullible public. An outright sale would be difficult since the buyer would likely do due diligence and negotiate a discount for lousy assets. But the public can be convinced to buy anything in a bull market. In fact very little convincing is needed – the public is happy to convince itself, especially in today’s low-interest rate environment.
Sponsored trusts are created to help owners divest unwanted assets. The management fees are just a bonus.
Non-sponsored trusts are created primarily for the management fees.
Growth:
Since a trust seeks to grow by buying the type of assets it already owns, its own assets and unit price are likely to be marked down at the same time that bargains are available in the market. Therefore it can’t buy these assets since its currency (its units) is also marked down. In a bull market its units are priced higher, but so are the targets, so we are back to square one.
This is true regardless of whether or not there is a sponsor. Where the sponsor can help is to market/hype the trust to get its units overvalued against the physical market e.g. if the cap rate in the market is 5% and the trust yields 4% then yield-accretive acquisitions can be done.
A sponsored trust can rely on the bigger marketing budget of its parent to help hype the units. A non-sponsored trust has only the limited resources of its trust manager. So all things being equal, the sponsored trust has a better chance of becoming overvalued and thus able to grow.
Ideally one would buy a sponsored trust at a low valuation. Then, while waiting for the hype/revaluation, one can still enjoy the higher dividend yield. The sponsor wants to unload their assets to the trust, so they have an interest in getting the trust units overvalued.
Of course, the sponsor’s hype machine doesn’t always work – see Hyflux Water Trust. The trust never traded at a sufficiently low yield to be able to overpay for projects from Hyflux. Eventually Hyflux decided to kill it and find a Japanese buyer for its projects instead. But due credit to Hyflux management for their intelligent attempt to (ab)use the capital markets.
This is precisely why non-sponsored trusts exist – because people want to own a REIT manager. It is no accident that while there are plenty of listed REITs, there are very few listed REIT managers.
The fact that REITs and business trusts are created to benefit either asset owners who wish to divest, or managers who wish to create an income stream, is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Investors simply have to understand this when doing their due diligence and not invest based on the yield alone. Management behaviour (rights issues, debt refinancing, acquisitions etc) can and will drastically change the future yields.
Just because the structure of REITs encourages value-destroying behaviour (debt-funded acquisitions in bull markets) doesn’t mean that all managers behave this way. The sensible ones keep gearing low. At the right price, such REITs can be fantastic investments.
In the 2008/2009 stock market crash/recovery, some of the biggest capital gains were recorded by REITs. IIRC one of the big winners was CDL H-REIT. In the bear market, one could have safely bought all the REITs with strong balance sheets, and obtained both high income and good potential for capital gains. As a group, they were low-risk, high return investments. Note the past tense!
Conversely, some of the worst losses were also recorded by REITs. Essentially, everyone who did a rights issue destroyed shareholder value e.g. CMT, CCT, MLT, K-REIT (twice), Starhill, Fortune etc. With the exceptions of Starhill and Fortune, all of them had horrible balance sheets that were train wrecks waiting to happen.
Starhill was unusual in that the management actively chose to destroy value – despite low gearing and their debt not being due for over a year, they raised cash at the bottom of the market, then let it sit around until they bought the Malaysian properties much later. Ditto with Fortune – the purchase of the Cheung Kong properties was a massively DPU-negative transaction.
As for normal companies, the division between ownership and management also encourages value-destroying behaviour, since managers are paid salaries and bonuses before shareholders get dividends. Therefore the temptation is to take maximum risk, since if it works there is a big bonus waiting, and if it doesn’t work the shareholders cough up for the rights issue.
Does this also mean that one should not invest in stocks at all? Of course not. But it behooves the investor to inform himself of the risk/reward equations faced by the key managers so that he can understand how the managers are likely to behave.
Again, not all managers behave badly. Normally the owner-managers are better behaved, since they are the biggest shareholders and must cough up money in a rights issue if they screw up. Notice that the family-run UOB and CDL did not have any rights issues during the crisis, in contrast to the professionally-managed DBS, Capitaland and NOL.
There are of course bad owner-managers and good professional managers. But my experience has led me to favour owner-managed companies.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
分享锦集：盯紧盈利莫放松冷眼
股票投资，其实有许多准则可以遵循的。问题是，准则太多了，要付诸于行动，难之又难。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
就以选股来说，每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则，但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的，恐怕不多。
准则越简单越好
不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友，即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将，在应用这些准则时，也未必能做到得心应手，故股票投资之道，知之匪艰，行之维艰呵！
研究股票数十年，在股市中实践数十载，到了古稀之年，我有一种越来越强烈的感觉：选择股票，准则越简单越好，组合管理，则动作动少越妙。
投资者所犯的最大错误，是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深，又复杂的方法去战胜股市，从而赚取暴利。
实际上，这一类投资者，成功致富的少之又少，真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资，而动作又很少的投资者。
抓最重要最实用
我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实，知而不能行的准则，倒不如去芜存菁，抓住最重要，最实用，而又最易实行的一点，身体力行，更能产生实效，达到创造财富的目的。
如果你阅读别人的股票分析，听取别人的主张的话，你反而会无所适从。
所以，与其去到处询问别人的意见，倒不如依循一两个简单的准则，脚踏实地的走自己的道路。
当你听到一只股票是否值得投资，众说纷纭，莫衷一是的时候，你只要回答一个最简单的问题，就马上可以作出决定：“这家公司赚钱吗？”
如果答案是“不”的话，就不必再去考虑买进，因为主张买进的人，是根据似是而非的“意见”，并不是根据事实作出推荐。
股票价值建在盈利基础
你的投资概念，必须是建立在一个基础上，那就是股票的价格趋势。
长期来说，必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值，主要是建立在盈利的基础上。
简言之，只有盈利，才能创造价值，只有价值，才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。
一家公司的股票，如果没有盈利的支撑的话，其股价不可能长期向上。
一家盈利长期向上的公司，短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落，但长期的趋势必然是向上的。
星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价，短期是有起落，但长期来说是向上的，因而为投资者创造了财富。
投资者把资金投入一家企业，需冒丧失资本的风险，还要花精神，竭心智去经营，盈利是他应得的酬劳。
正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主，他应该得到薪金一样，是天公地道的事。
盈利是投资保障
有了盈利，员工职业才有保障。
有了盈利，才有股息。
有了盈利，公司资产才会增加。
有了盈利，公司才有能力增加投资，扩展生意。
盈利，是企业的生命。
盈利，是你的投资的最佳保障。
低买长期收稳赚
既然如此，投资者要作出投资决定，易如反掌，那就是只买有盈利公司的股票，没有盈利公司，无论“消息”多么好，一概不买。
盈利长期稳健上升的公司，是最好的公司，低价买进长期收藏，稳赚。
所谓“有盈利”的公司，是以全年，而不是以一季为标准。
一家公司的业务，受到意想不到因素的冲击，在一两季中蒙受亏损，是很平常的事，只要不伤及元气，逆境过后就重振旗鼓，重获盈利，就应归入“有盈利”的公司。
在经济大风暴中，企业蒙受亏蚀，情有可原，只要长期盈利纪录标青，将来赚钱的能力完整无损，就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。
实际上，好公司短期受挫，导致股价暴跌，正是买进的良机，这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。
举例说明：亿维雅
亿维雅（Hevea Board）的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板（Chipboard）和傢具，由2005至2008盈利日走下坡，但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹，去年每股净利23仙，以目前64仙的股价计算，本益比仅2.77倍，为上市公司中最低者之一。
该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉，等于股东基金的91%，属债高公司之一，在金融风暴中，该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困，后来借助法庭庭令才渡过难关。
为了减轻债务，该公司已在今年5月委任顾问，研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋（Heveapac）上市，以套取资金减低母公司的负债，该公司也发凭单给股东，凭单长达10年，由今年3月算起。
盯紧第四季盈利
该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利，首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利，如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话，全年盈利可达25仙，以目前63仙的股价计算，本益比才2.5倍。
假如你购买这只股票的话，我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。
如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话，就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影，债务问题亦可迎刃而解。
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Time is Money. Money is Time.
Time is Money
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Most people make most of their money by "selling" their time. Some are able to "sell" their time at "obscene" super high price while sold theirs at dirty-cheap price. Their price difference can be amazing XXX times the lowest paid person in the same company.
Unless you have Bank of PaPa or Bank of MaMa behind you, the greatest financial asset generator is our time. We either "sell" it at higher price or "sell" more of it at lower price for the same absolute amount.
So this sense: Time is Money!
Money is Time
When we spend more of our time in making money, we will have more money. But, if we really think or correctly estimate/forecast that we may not need so much more money, then it follows that we will have more time, more time to pursue other things or activities, other than making money.
Money is LIMITLESS; but our time is LIMITED and FINITE. We only live ONCE.
Since we only have that much of our time so it is up to us and ourselves to argue that more money is needed to buy more of the stuff to find pleasure in them is more precious than the time spent on other activities that may not actually require spending of more money? There are some inexpensive ways or you may change the ways to find that your own little pleasures. Seek and you may find them.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT): Trading at an unwarranted discount
High quality assets, strong sponsor.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) owns 10 properties across three countries with retail and office components. FCOT derives some 52% of its gross revenue from Singapore, which comprises China Square Central, 55 Market Street and Alexandra Technopark. These assets are either high-quality commercial property located near the heart of the financial district or high-tech business space development at the fringe area of the central-region of Singapore. FCOT
also owned four commercial properties in Tokyo & Osaka. Other asset includes Central Park (Perth) which is a premium grade office tower and the tallest building in Perth. Located on St Georges Terrace, Central Park is a pre-eminent business address, in the heart of the CBD and shopping precinct. Its sponsor is Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL), subsidiary of F&N, giving FCOT rights of first refusal to a possibly rich pipeline of sponsorowned assets for future acquisition. In the near to middle term, StarHub Centre, Alexandra Point and Valley Point are possibly slated asset injection targets for FCOT, if they prove yield-accretive to unitholders.
Stable income.
FCOT also enjoys a number of blue-chip long-tenure leases (such as Commonwealth of Australia, BHP Billiton Petroleum etc.) and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Approximately 65% of FCOT's revenue is derived from such leases. 25% of its gross rental income also has built-in annual rent step-ups. We also see scope to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions.
Trading at an unwarranted discount to book.
But FCOT is trading at a 57% discount-to-book compared to the broader Office REITs which are
trading at 30% discount-to-book. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. However, given the current high quality assets, strong sponsor and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. Instead, we apply a more reasonable 40% discount to our RNAV to derive a fair value of S$0.18. This translates to an estimated total return of 14.7% (Price Upside: 8.6%; Distribution Yield: 6.1%).
Maintain BUY rating.
Unit consolidation underway. Meanwhile, FCOT is looking to consolidate five existing units into one, which it opined will improve market perception and attractiveness of its units. It has already gotten in-principle-approval from SGX-ST for the proposal and is now awaiting
unitholders' approval.
Suntec REIT: Downgrade to HOLD on valuation
Private placement to fund MBFC buy.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Suntec REIT recently closed the book of orders for its private placement to partly fund the acquisition of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 1. (Recall that Suntec REIT has proposed to acquire a one-third stake in MBFC Phase 1 from Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd and Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd. on an agreed property value of S$1,495.8m, which includes rental support of S$113.9m over a 60-month period from the completion date of the acquisition.) The private placement of 313m new units was 3.1 times oversubscribed, with the issue price per new unit fixed at S$1.37 following an accelerated book-building process. The trading of the new units on SGX-ST has commenced on 9 Dec 2010. The gross proceeds from the private placement amount to approximately S$428.8 million - 97.5% of it will be used to partially finance the acquisition, while 2.5% will be utilized to pay for advisory, underwriting, selling and management fee as well as other estimated fees and expenses.
Tight initial yields.
Suntec estimated that the FY11 net property income (NPI) for the MBFC acquisition to be around S$60.6m. This gives a fairly tight initial yield of 4% on the acquisition. The acquisition will, however, further enhances the income diversification of Suntec and reduce its reliance of income stream on any single property (~75.9% of total NPI of existing portfolio is currently derived from Suntec City). The MBFC acquisition will also act as the trend-setter for the emerging "Premium Grade A" office space that is debuting around Marina Bay area, on the back government's commitment to pump more than S$1b into infrastructure works to support Marina Bay's growth over the next 10-15 years.
Downgrade to HOLD.
While the effective interest rate of 3.12% per annum for the S$1,105m debt facility came in lower than expected, we see the need to increase our cost of equity from 6.0%to 8.2%, as we further finetune our CAPM assumptions to account for the slightly heightened risk aversion in the equity market. This in turn raises our WACC rate from 5.08% to 6.09% and lowers our fair value from S$1.63 to S$1.50. Hence we downgrade our rating to HOLD on valuation grounds, given that its estimated total return is less than 10%, even though we continue to like the trust for its high quality assets and exposure to the Marina Bay area.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
分享锦集: 富向冷中求
冷门股是指交投不活跃及每天成交量低的股票。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票，刚好相反。
在这一轮的牛市中，根据证券业人士的估测，到目前为止，活跃参与股票交易的，基本上还是来自投资机构，如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等，股市中人通常称他们为大户。
至于散户，至今仍按兵不动，这种现象一点也不奇怪。
在所有牛市的初期，甚至中期，在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户，都心有余悸，他们惊魂未定，担心股市的外势只是虚有其表，恐怕进场后再度中计，因此多数采取观望的态度。
反向策略熊市进场
但是，江山易改，“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友，到股市疯狂时，在贪念的催促下，最终“忍无可忍”，还是跳进鳄鱼潭中，成为鳄鱼的点心，历届牛市历史都是这样重演着。
我一再提醒散户，采取反向策略，在熊市中进场，低价买进优质股，就不动如山，心如英语所说的：“坐着走过牛市”，以逃过股市大鳄的利爪，全身以退。
最好策略以静待动
四十年的股市实战经验告诉我，经验不足，财力薄弱的散户，绝对不是大户的对手，要想打败股市是不可能的，散户的最好策略就是以静待动；以不变应万变，不与狼共舞，紧握你的股票，最后一走了之，股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。
股市有如过山车，你在过山车的座位上，套上安全带，任由过山车向前窜高逐低，你就是抓紧栏杆不动，你就会安然无恙的到达终站，如果你自作聪明，企图搞花样的话，你准会被摔出车座送命。
大户在股市中，操作活跃，可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。
散户如果跟着他们，闻风起舞的话，最终必定遭殃。
因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面，都不可能跟他们相比。
股市这个充满陷阱的地方，即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄，何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢？
基金不能购冷门股
大户由于资金庞大，交易数量动辄以千万股计，他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣，对于交投不活跃，难以买到大宗股票的公司，完全不感兴趣，这也难怪，因为他们所管理的基金，投资者随时都可以退出。
当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候，他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者，如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话，他们无法将股票套现，无法应付投资者的“挤提”的话，他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机，所以，基金不能购买冷门股。
冷门股价值严重被低估
基金对冷门股不感兴趣，往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估，跟热门股形成强烈的对照，热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐，不断的发表研究报告，即使是公司小小的变动，他们也会马上加以分析，作出评估。
所以，热门股，尤其是大资本的优质热门股，它们的价值，尽人皆知，根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。
冷门股就不同了，由于没有人加以分析推荐，交投又不活跃，长期被股市中人冷落，它们被忽略，价值往往被严重低估。
这种股票，只有深读年报，勤于挖掘的投资者，才会发现它们的价值，从而买进，作为长期投资，取得丰厚的回酬。
不买冷门垃圾股
避免投资机构热衷的热门股，把注意力转移至较不热门，长期被忽略的股票，深入挖掘，找出它们的价值，然后好整以暇地买进，作为长期投资，这类股票跌幅有限，上升空间很大，风险也就相应的较低。
但是，投资于冷门股，要特别注意，千万不要买冷门的垃圾股，因为一旦股市大跌，你无法脱售，而所拿着的股票的公司，又长期亏蚀，股票最终可能变成废纸。所以，千万不要买冷门劣股。
冷门股由于交投淡薄，甚至长期没有交易，在这种情形之下，跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以，在买进的时候，就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度，准备长期锁在保险箱中。
这种投资法，只有买进盈利长期上升，资产自动增值及负债低的公司，才有可能取得丰厚的回酬，你以低价（以每英亩的买进价格为标准）买进油棕成长股，长期持有，几乎是稳赚的。
有行无市怪现象
买这类股票，享受不到买热门股的刺激，但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。
冷门股之所以会变成冷门，一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中，不会轻易脱售，形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。
另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户，都是长期投资者，买进后就不卖，结果股市中的流离股进一步减低，形成了有行无市的怪现象。
还有一个原因，就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司，在股市中流通的股票原本就不多，若有人发现其价值，长期吸购的话，票数就更加少，成为冷门股中的冷门。
不可借钱购买
由于冷门股难买难卖，所以，千万不可借钱购买，否则的话，当股价暴跌时，你可能面对银行逼仓，银行不会理会股票的价值，他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票，收回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股，跌幅往往惊人的大。
即使在目前的牛市中，仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股，他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录，资产雄厚，更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。
它们每股拥有的现金为：格林尼（RM1.00）；哈礼申（RM0.84）；菲马机构（RM1.16）；KESMI（RM0.76）；RCI（RM0.53）。
格林尼的母公司为林威，该公司拥有大量未种植土地，每年增种新树整1万英亩；哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制，菲马集团（Kumpulan Fima）拥有菲马机构（Fima Corp.）约60%股权，KESMI是由新加坡人控制；RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股（MFCB）。
Monday, December 6, 2010
曾渊沧@股友通讯录-2010 年12 月份
11月的股市就像一个倒转的V字，先升后跌，打回原形 。美国联储局开会结果揭晓，将在明年第二季结束之前买入9000亿美元国债，其中6000亿美元是印出来的新钱， 另外3000亿美元是回收的钱。我之前已向大家解释过，过去一年，美国联储局实际上是不断地向市场回收资金而不是注入资金，这是静静地退市。现在，联储局总算清楚地告诉大家，新的注资额有多少、回收资金有多少及回收的钱再重新注入市场有多少。
今次6000亿美元的新增资金多吗？实际上只是市场预期的下限，10月中旬，股市出现调整时，市场所提出来的理由是什么？那就是当时市场突然收到风，说新一轮量化宽松的规模不会太大，大约只有5000亿美元,这与之前更多人以为会像去年那样注入近2万亿美元差得很远。
现在新一轮量化宽松的结果也的确与10月中旬市场所收到的风或者说预计的金额差不多，是属於市场较低的预期。有趣的是， QE2只有6000亿美元，与预期2万亿差得很远，只是市场预期的低位，11月上旬股市凭什么大幅上升?
原因只有一个，那就是大户已经控制了市场的情绪。大户不理QE2的规模，硬把股价炒上，试一试市场可以接受的短期顶位在哪里，股市一升，人的贪念就出现，人人争着买，股价就再升;QE2公布后，好消息已出尽，还有什么理由炒？好消息出尽，没了好消息，股市就会向反方向「创造」坏消息。是的，近日的坏消息，除了两韩
炮战之外，余者皆是大鳄精心炮制出来的。先是人为的制造中国加息的恐慌；然后是已沦为大鳄打手的美国评级
机构对欧洲几个国家的国债评级降低；当股市一跌，人的恐惧心就出现，不卖掉股票睡不着。如果你至今仍无法
克服贪婪与恐惧心，你肯定不可能是一名一流的投资者。
中国国务院推出4招來压通胀，分别为确保市场供应、完善补贴制度、加强监管及严惩恶意炒作，还说必要时要直接干预物价。这是一边放火，一边救火的作法，一手推动内需，增加老百姓的钱，制造通胀，另一手则压通胀。这对在新加坡上市的龙筹股带來压力。我一直认为，通胀不是大问题，如果收入高过通胀，通胀只是「快
乐的」问题。
台湾的五都选举终於结束了，这一次的选举，最大的特点是不论国民党或是民进党，都绝口不提台湾与大陆之间的独统问题， 大家集中话题於地方行政、论政积、地方发展蓝图… … 这是好事， 天大的好事。
2000年，民进党陈水扁上台后，台独课题就成了陈水扁的炒作，吸取选票的唯一方法，陈水扁对台湾的经济发展不关心，个人是大贪官。但是，为了争取选票，就不断地玩弄统独问题，把台湾民众撕裂、互相仇视，结果
社会严重分裂，终於民进党被陈水扁搞垮了。2008年，国民党重新上台执政，民进党痛定思痛之後，决定放弃陈水扁那一套，以理性、务实的态度重新定位。意味着两岸关系将维持相当长的一段良好关系，因为民进党已经改变了，变为务实得多的政党，不会无缘无故地像当年李登辉、陈水扁那样挑起事端、制造紧张。将来，台湾两党轮替，就算民进党再度执政，两岸关系也不会有太大的改变，极端思想已失去市场，务实思想成了主流。很肯定的，这对投资者而言是天大的好事。
南北韩局势突然紧张，过去许多年，每隔一段时间，北韩穷极就会发恶，目前就是要收点钱。北韩在打两百枚炮弹之前，可能早已事前在全球各地股市大量沽空。
南韩身娇肉贵，不想打仗。对中国而言，今日的中国也不会再打韩战了，因此当北韩闹事闹到差不多时，相信中国会出手制止北韩再胡闹。北韩也心知肚明，吓唬吓唬可以，真的大战，美军实力足以占领北韩，南北韩局势尽管紧张，但是不会真的变成大战。
股市走势依然飘忽，不要去猜，也不必猜。现在比较值得做的事是趁调整买入之前你想买而未买的股，经过了这一轮的调整后，部份股份的股价出现了相当大幅度的调整，PE下降了，我认为也许是时候考虑吸纳。我经说，投资要有耐性，当人人一哄而入，抢购PE极高的股时，你应该耐心地等调整。一场大牛市，股价不是天天向上，而是经历多次的调整，想买股，就应该坚守不买贵的原则，等股价出现调整，PE相对较低时才市。同时，也不可以有「捞底」的态，我们不可能很准确的以最低价买入，只要你认为PE值是相对低就行了，买入后股价是升是跌都不要理。
今次6000亿美元的新增资金多吗？实际上只是市场预期的下限，10月中旬，股市出现调整时，市场所提出来的理由是什么？那就是当时市场突然收到风，说新一轮量化宽松的规模不会太大，大约只有5000亿美元,这与之前更多人以为会像去年那样注入近2万亿美元差得很远。
现在新一轮量化宽松的结果也的确与10月中旬市场所收到的风或者说预计的金额差不多，是属於市场较低的预期。有趣的是， QE2只有6000亿美元，与预期2万亿差得很远，只是市场预期的低位，11月上旬股市凭什么大幅上升?
原因只有一个，那就是大户已经控制了市场的情绪。大户不理QE2的规模，硬把股价炒上，试一试市场可以接受的短期顶位在哪里，股市一升，人的贪念就出现，人人争着买，股价就再升;QE2公布后，好消息已出尽，还有什么理由炒？好消息出尽，没了好消息，股市就会向反方向「创造」坏消息。是的，近日的坏消息，除了两韩
炮战之外，余者皆是大鳄精心炮制出来的。先是人为的制造中国加息的恐慌；然后是已沦为大鳄打手的美国评级
机构对欧洲几个国家的国债评级降低；当股市一跌，人的恐惧心就出现，不卖掉股票睡不着。如果你至今仍无法
克服贪婪与恐惧心，你肯定不可能是一名一流的投资者。
中国国务院推出4招來压通胀，分别为确保市场供应、完善补贴制度、加强监管及严惩恶意炒作，还说必要时要直接干预物价。这是一边放火，一边救火的作法，一手推动内需，增加老百姓的钱，制造通胀，另一手则压通胀。这对在新加坡上市的龙筹股带來压力。我一直认为，通胀不是大问题，如果收入高过通胀，通胀只是「快
乐的」问题。
台湾的五都选举终於结束了，这一次的选举，最大的特点是不论国民党或是民进党，都绝口不提台湾与大陆之间的独统问题， 大家集中话题於地方行政、论政积、地方发展蓝图… … 这是好事， 天大的好事。
2000年，民进党陈水扁上台后，台独课题就成了陈水扁的炒作，吸取选票的唯一方法，陈水扁对台湾的经济发展不关心，个人是大贪官。但是，为了争取选票，就不断地玩弄统独问题，把台湾民众撕裂、互相仇视，结果
社会严重分裂，终於民进党被陈水扁搞垮了。2008年，国民党重新上台执政，民进党痛定思痛之後，决定放弃陈水扁那一套，以理性、务实的态度重新定位。意味着两岸关系将维持相当长的一段良好关系，因为民进党已经改变了，变为务实得多的政党，不会无缘无故地像当年李登辉、陈水扁那样挑起事端、制造紧张。将来，台湾两党轮替，就算民进党再度执政，两岸关系也不会有太大的改变，极端思想已失去市场，务实思想成了主流。很肯定的，这对投资者而言是天大的好事。
南北韩局势突然紧张，过去许多年，每隔一段时间，北韩穷极就会发恶，目前就是要收点钱。北韩在打两百枚炮弹之前，可能早已事前在全球各地股市大量沽空。
南韩身娇肉贵，不想打仗。对中国而言，今日的中国也不会再打韩战了，因此当北韩闹事闹到差不多时，相信中国会出手制止北韩再胡闹。北韩也心知肚明，吓唬吓唬可以，真的大战，美军实力足以占领北韩，南北韩局势尽管紧张，但是不会真的变成大战。
股市走势依然飘忽，不要去猜，也不必猜。现在比较值得做的事是趁调整买入之前你想买而未买的股，经过了这一轮的调整后，部份股份的股价出现了相当大幅度的调整，PE下降了，我认为也许是时候考虑吸纳。我经说，投资要有耐性，当人人一哄而入，抢购PE极高的股时，你应该耐心地等调整。一场大牛市，股价不是天天向上，而是经历多次的调整，想买股，就应该坚守不买贵的原则，等股价出现调整，PE相对较低时才市。同时，也不可以有「捞底」的态，我们不可能很准确的以最低价买入，只要你认为PE值是相对低就行了，买入后股价是升是跌都不要理。
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
分享锦集:李小龙的双节棍
环绕着股票投资这个课题，写了四十年的文章，写来写去，都脱离不了基本面。
忠实的读者，对我写的东西都有“熟头熟脸”的感觉。这也难怪，因为基本面的道理，无非是那一套，根本不可能有新奇怪异的论调。看得多了，有老生常谈之感，也是再自然不过的事。
请不要以为你说我“老生常谈”，我会感到不高兴，恰好相反，我反而感到荣幸，有被恭维的感觉，因为这表示我的主张，数十年不变。
条条大路通罗马
四十年前悟出来的投资道理，四十年后的今天，保持不变。一种主张，经得起四十年的考验，说明了它的扎实基础，我对基本面深信不疑，是因为它以绩效证明它的价值。
条条大路通罗马。股票投资赚钱法，五花八门，各路人马在股市中各显神通；尽管法宝各异，但结果却大致相同，都赚到了钱。
假如你研究世界成功投资家的窍门的话，你会发现没有两个人所用的方法是相同的，但他们都同样成功。
通过股票投资，为他们自己或是他们所主持的基金，创造了财富，其中最著名的，当然首推巴菲特，他单靠投资股票，成为世界第二富有的人，仅次于微软的盖茨。
研究巴菲特的书，汗牛充栋，然而，世界并未出现第二个巴菲特。可见巴菲特所用的方法，只适用于他本人，别人模仿不得。尽管他的主张具有极大的普遍性，但别人应用起来，却不灵光。
就好像同是剑，在剑客手中，可以出神入化，但在普通武夫手中，却发挥不了威力。
模仿别人不明智
日前重新欣赏李小龙电影，发现一条双节棍在他手中舞劲，成为最犀利的武器；假如在门外汉手中舞动的话，不但不能克敌致胜，反而会敲破自己头。
可见模仿别人，并非明智之举。要在股市投资成功，惟一的可靠途径，是走自己的道路——一条独特的，适合你自己的路，然后坚定不移的走下去。造次必于是，颠沛必于是，这样，才有可能在股市中扬眉吐气。
每个人的性格、财务情况、人生观、环境、负担，都不一样，因此所形成的投资哲理，也必然完全不同。
例如性格稳健的人，最适合他的，应该是稳扎稳打的投资者，他只要发挥他的特长，在股市中买进基础扎实，盈利平稳的股票，比如种植股，长期持有，成功的可能性就大大的提高。
如果他不了解自己的性格，采取投机的投资概念，在股市中抢进杀出，企图快速致富的话，最后必然焦头烂额。
坚忍不拔精神
股票投资，不是单靠知识就可以成功的，要成功必须具备其他成功条件。
其中之一就是坚忍不拔的精神，股票投资，胜败是兵家常事，那些经不起失败考验，股市大跌时变得垂头丧气，甚至神经兮兮的人，不大可能在股市投资成功。
股市中另一种常见的，是“鸵鸟型”投资者，股市沸腾时他意气风发，股市崩溃时，他连看股市的勇气也没有。
成功的投资者，是无论股市兴衰，他都紧盯其股票，沉着应战，在险象环生的环境中杀出一条血路。
没有免费午餐
还有一种常见的失败者，是永远不会从失败中吸取经验的人，他一再重复错误，明知是错误的做法，却没有改弦易辙的决心，就这样一直错下去，奇怪的是他也不会离开股市，这种“长亏”型投资者，俯拾即是。
股市中没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才会有一分收获。许多人有一种错误的想法，以为股市是最容易赚钱的地方，实际上刚好相反，股市赚钱难，难赚钱。
惟有观念正确，肯下苦功做功课，有坚忍不拔的精神及极大的耐心的人，才有可能在股市赚钱。
孟子曰“梓匠轮舆能与人规矩，不能使人巧”《尽心篇》（白话：制作车轮、车箱的木匠，能把方法传授给他人，却不能使他人技艺巧妙）。
同样的，股票投资的基本法则并不难懂，但如何应用这些法则在股市投资成功，却还要靠投资者自己去领悟与摸索，没有人可以帮助你，这就是世界至今还没有出现第二个巴菲特的原因。
投资是个人化
股票投资是非常个人化的事，别人帮不了忙。所以投资大师邓普顿说：“最好的投资决定来自个人，并非来自一个委员会。”别人的意见，只能作为参考，却不可全盘照收，因为别人并没有为你赚钱的义务，你享受你的投资成果，所以你必须承担你的投资责任，要别人承担你的投资失败是不公平的。
根据自己的情况，建立自己投资理念，找出适合自己道路，择善而固执，坚决不移的走下去，只要长期能为你赚钱，就是走对了路，切勿轻易改变跑道。
记住，适合别人的，未必适合你。所以不要羡慕别人，只管沿着你的道路走下去，一定能走出一个春天来。
忠实的读者，对我写的东西都有“熟头熟脸”的感觉。这也难怪，因为基本面的道理，无非是那一套，根本不可能有新奇怪异的论调。看得多了，有老生常谈之感，也是再自然不过的事。
请不要以为你说我“老生常谈”，我会感到不高兴，恰好相反，我反而感到荣幸，有被恭维的感觉，因为这表示我的主张，数十年不变。
条条大路通罗马
四十年前悟出来的投资道理，四十年后的今天，保持不变。一种主张，经得起四十年的考验，说明了它的扎实基础，我对基本面深信不疑，是因为它以绩效证明它的价值。
条条大路通罗马。股票投资赚钱法，五花八门，各路人马在股市中各显神通；尽管法宝各异，但结果却大致相同，都赚到了钱。
假如你研究世界成功投资家的窍门的话，你会发现没有两个人所用的方法是相同的，但他们都同样成功。
通过股票投资，为他们自己或是他们所主持的基金，创造了财富，其中最著名的，当然首推巴菲特，他单靠投资股票，成为世界第二富有的人，仅次于微软的盖茨。
研究巴菲特的书，汗牛充栋，然而，世界并未出现第二个巴菲特。可见巴菲特所用的方法，只适用于他本人，别人模仿不得。尽管他的主张具有极大的普遍性，但别人应用起来，却不灵光。
就好像同是剑，在剑客手中，可以出神入化，但在普通武夫手中，却发挥不了威力。
模仿别人不明智
日前重新欣赏李小龙电影，发现一条双节棍在他手中舞劲，成为最犀利的武器；假如在门外汉手中舞动的话，不但不能克敌致胜，反而会敲破自己头。
可见模仿别人，并非明智之举。要在股市投资成功，惟一的可靠途径，是走自己的道路——一条独特的，适合你自己的路，然后坚定不移的走下去。造次必于是，颠沛必于是，这样，才有可能在股市中扬眉吐气。
每个人的性格、财务情况、人生观、环境、负担，都不一样，因此所形成的投资哲理，也必然完全不同。
例如性格稳健的人，最适合他的，应该是稳扎稳打的投资者，他只要发挥他的特长，在股市中买进基础扎实，盈利平稳的股票，比如种植股，长期持有，成功的可能性就大大的提高。
如果他不了解自己的性格，采取投机的投资概念，在股市中抢进杀出，企图快速致富的话，最后必然焦头烂额。
坚忍不拔精神
股票投资，不是单靠知识就可以成功的，要成功必须具备其他成功条件。
其中之一就是坚忍不拔的精神，股票投资，胜败是兵家常事，那些经不起失败考验，股市大跌时变得垂头丧气，甚至神经兮兮的人，不大可能在股市投资成功。
股市中另一种常见的，是“鸵鸟型”投资者，股市沸腾时他意气风发，股市崩溃时，他连看股市的勇气也没有。
成功的投资者，是无论股市兴衰，他都紧盯其股票，沉着应战，在险象环生的环境中杀出一条血路。
没有免费午餐
还有一种常见的失败者，是永远不会从失败中吸取经验的人，他一再重复错误，明知是错误的做法，却没有改弦易辙的决心，就这样一直错下去，奇怪的是他也不会离开股市，这种“长亏”型投资者，俯拾即是。
股市中没有免费的午餐，一分耕耘，才会有一分收获。许多人有一种错误的想法，以为股市是最容易赚钱的地方，实际上刚好相反，股市赚钱难，难赚钱。
惟有观念正确，肯下苦功做功课，有坚忍不拔的精神及极大的耐心的人，才有可能在股市赚钱。
孟子曰“梓匠轮舆能与人规矩，不能使人巧”《尽心篇》（白话：制作车轮、车箱的木匠，能把方法传授给他人，却不能使他人技艺巧妙）。
同样的，股票投资的基本法则并不难懂，但如何应用这些法则在股市投资成功，却还要靠投资者自己去领悟与摸索，没有人可以帮助你，这就是世界至今还没有出现第二个巴菲特的原因。
投资是个人化
股票投资是非常个人化的事，别人帮不了忙。所以投资大师邓普顿说：“最好的投资决定来自个人，并非来自一个委员会。”别人的意见，只能作为参考，却不可全盘照收，因为别人并没有为你赚钱的义务，你享受你的投资成果，所以你必须承担你的投资责任，要别人承担你的投资失败是不公平的。
根据自己的情况，建立自己投资理念，找出适合自己道路，择善而固执，坚决不移的走下去，只要长期能为你赚钱，就是走对了路，切勿轻易改变跑道。
记住，适合别人的，未必适合你。所以不要羡慕别人，只管沿着你的道路走下去，一定能走出一个春天来。
分享锦集：深读年报 寻宝藏
股票投资者在收到他持有股份的公司的常年报告书之后，能翻开来细读的，少之又少。
大部分投资者，对年报都不屑一顾，更不要说深入阅读了。
而他投资于这家公司的资金，可能多达百万令吉，投入这么大笔的资金，却对有关公司的实况，一无所知，这种草率的态度，实在令人费解。
大部分股票投资者，都申诉股票资料难找，实际上刚好相反。
上市公司都必须遵守上市条例，按时公布公司的营业状况，这就是公司每三个月发布一次的季报和每年发布一次的年报，他们所必须公布的资料都是上市条例所规定的，不得偷工减料，这些资料足供投资者评估股票的价值。
投资者只要细读，对公司股份的价值，即使不能深入了解，最低限度，也会有一个清楚的概念。
谣言出错高
可惜大部分投资者都不肯花时间、精神去做功课，反而到处打听消息，听信谣言，以此作为买进卖出的根据，根据不可靠的资料作出的决定，出错的机会当然较高，难怪股市中人，总是亏多赚少。
了解公司进展
在股票研究中，年报是主要的资料来源，其重要性不言而喻。假如你要长期在股市中生存，养成阅读年报的习惯，是最起码的条件。
一家公司的年报，习惯上只报告过去一年的营业进展，过去的略而不提。所以，要了解一家公司，一定要阅读多年的年报，对公司的进展，才能了然于心。
我们知道，所有企业的营运，都是连续性的，如果只读一年的年报，对过去一无所知，你很难对公司的业务进程，有清楚的认识。
年报了解演变
这种情形，就好像我们只读断代史，无法了解一个国家的演变一样。所以，投资者除了读当年的年报之外，最好是同时阅读历年的年报。
马来西亚股票交易所由2002年起，通过www.bursamalaysia.com，给投资者免费提供的年报、季报和公司的文告，2002年以来的资料全部完整的保存在该所的网站中，这些都是非常宝贵的资料，不好好的利用，实在可惜。
评价资产价值
年报中刊载了非常宝贵的资料，如果你深入阅读的话，你不难找到宝藏。
这些都是非常难得的“贴士”，善加应用，可能为你带来意想不到的财富。
大家都知道，评估股票价值的三个最常用标准为本益比、周息率和每股净有形资产价值。买进股票的其中一个考量是：有关股票的价值是不是被低估？而评定价值是不是被低估的其中一个标准，就是每股净有形资产价值是不是比市价高。
考虑前途展望
当然，每股净有形资产价值只是评估标准之一，一只股票值不值得买进，除了净有形资产价值之外，还要考虑其他的因素，例如前途展望。
所有的年报，都会提供该公司股票的每股净有形资产价值（Net Tangible Asset Per Share，简称NTA）。账目中所提供的数字，到底可靠不可靠？是比市价低还是高？
随手举一个例子说明：如果你翻阅刚出炉的第一控股工业（FACB IND）年报的话，你就可以找到答案。
轻易算出产业价值
每一本年报都有一个“产业表”，列出该公司所拥有的房地产的地点、用途、面积、年龄、地契年期（永久性还是租用期地契）、账面价值和估值年份。
从这些资料，你可以轻易的算出有关产业的价值，从而看出该公司的产业价值是高过或低过市价。
【例一】第一控股工业
就以第一控股工业来说，该公司在两个工业区拥有厂地和厂房：
第一个是在麻坡的丹绒阿卡斯工业区拥有约5英亩厂地，为梦乡床垫（Dreamland）的制造厂所在地（第一控股工业的前身为梦乡），这组厂房厂地在账目中的价值为312万6000令吉，或是每平方尺14令吉39仙，估值年度为1991年。目前在账目中的价值仍为19年前的价值。
19年来，这些厂地厂房的价值涨了多少倍？现在的市值是多少？我们无从估计，但有一点是肯定的，市值必然高过19年前的价值。
第二个地点是在雪兰莪莎阿南工业区的厂地和厂房，也就是该公司主要业务——白钢厂所在地，厂地20.144英亩，99年地契，到2098年届满，账面价值为3724万5000令吉，估值年度为1992年。
到底这18年来，莎阿南的工业地涨了多少倍？我没有足够的资料可以佐证。但常识告诉我们：18年前买下的厂地，现在价值肯定已上涨了几倍。所以，3724万5000令吉的账面价值，肯定是被低估。
所以，假如第一控股工业重估其地产的话，该公司的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比年报中的2令吉16仙为高。
【例二】金狮工业
金狮工业是另一个典型例子。该公司在巴生武吉拉查的60英亩钢铁厂厂地，在账目中的价值仅3160万令吉，那是1994年的估值，现在涨了多少倍？
该公司的地产多达30宗，分散在雪、甲、柔、槟等高成长区，估值年度由1991至2008年不等，市价肯定比账面价值高。
换句话说，金狮工业的每股净有形资产价值肯定高过年报中的4令吉25仙。
【例三】金兴工业
金兴工业（Kim Hin）是一家瓷砖制造厂。在古晋、芙蓉、上海、澳洲设有工厂及仓库。这些产业的估值年度为古晋：1992（31英亩）；芙蓉：1989（15.15英亩）；上海：1992（53英亩）；澳洲悉尼：1995（4.87英亩）；雪兰莪加埔：2005（5.98英亩）。
目前的价值，肯定比账面价值高几倍。如果重新估值，每股净有形资产价值肯定比3令吉08仙的账面价值高，难怪该公司大股东持续不断的从股市吸购该公司的股票。
该公司的每股现金及准现金（债券、单位信托等），几乎等于其股票市价。
【例四】东方实业
东方实业（Oriental Holdings）在年报中，以18页的编幅，列出该公司所拥有的房地产。
这些遍布大马各州及印尼的产业，用途包括园丘、工业地、酒店、商业地等，估值年度由1968年到2009年，但绝大部分是80及90年代的估值，除非全面重新估值，否则该公司董事恐怕也无法准确知道其价值。
但有一点是可以肯定的，这些房地产的市值，肯定比账面价值不知高多少倍。
换句话说，东方实业的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比在6月30日时的7令吉43仙为高。更值得注意的是，该公司在6月底时的净现金高达近20亿令吉，成为大马现金最充沛的上市公司之一。
我随手举几个例子，旨在说明一点：股价虽然已屡创高峰，实际上，许多上市公司的每股净有形资产价值仍比市价低一截。像这类公司，其实还很多，只要你深入阅读年报，你不难有所发现。
我要特别指出：每股净有形资产价值，只是评估股票价值是否被低估的标准之一而已。一只股票是否值得买进，还要配合其他的因素如本益比、周息率、现金流、前途展望等，才能决定，不能单看每股净资产价值。
但是，假如其他因素相同的话，每股净有形资产价值雄厚的公司，其股票更值得投资。
年报蕴藏着许多宝藏，等待你去发掘。有恒地深读年报，必有所发现。
大部分投资者，对年报都不屑一顾，更不要说深入阅读了。
而他投资于这家公司的资金，可能多达百万令吉，投入这么大笔的资金，却对有关公司的实况，一无所知，这种草率的态度，实在令人费解。
大部分股票投资者，都申诉股票资料难找，实际上刚好相反。
上市公司都必须遵守上市条例，按时公布公司的营业状况，这就是公司每三个月发布一次的季报和每年发布一次的年报，他们所必须公布的资料都是上市条例所规定的，不得偷工减料，这些资料足供投资者评估股票的价值。
投资者只要细读，对公司股份的价值，即使不能深入了解，最低限度，也会有一个清楚的概念。
谣言出错高
可惜大部分投资者都不肯花时间、精神去做功课，反而到处打听消息，听信谣言，以此作为买进卖出的根据，根据不可靠的资料作出的决定，出错的机会当然较高，难怪股市中人，总是亏多赚少。
了解公司进展
在股票研究中，年报是主要的资料来源，其重要性不言而喻。假如你要长期在股市中生存，养成阅读年报的习惯，是最起码的条件。
一家公司的年报，习惯上只报告过去一年的营业进展，过去的略而不提。所以，要了解一家公司，一定要阅读多年的年报，对公司的进展，才能了然于心。
我们知道，所有企业的营运，都是连续性的，如果只读一年的年报，对过去一无所知，你很难对公司的业务进程，有清楚的认识。
年报了解演变
这种情形，就好像我们只读断代史，无法了解一个国家的演变一样。所以，投资者除了读当年的年报之外，最好是同时阅读历年的年报。
马来西亚股票交易所由2002年起，通过www.bursamalaysia.com，给投资者免费提供的年报、季报和公司的文告，2002年以来的资料全部完整的保存在该所的网站中，这些都是非常宝贵的资料，不好好的利用，实在可惜。
评价资产价值
年报中刊载了非常宝贵的资料，如果你深入阅读的话，你不难找到宝藏。
这些都是非常难得的“贴士”，善加应用，可能为你带来意想不到的财富。
大家都知道，评估股票价值的三个最常用标准为本益比、周息率和每股净有形资产价值。买进股票的其中一个考量是：有关股票的价值是不是被低估？而评定价值是不是被低估的其中一个标准，就是每股净有形资产价值是不是比市价高。
考虑前途展望
当然，每股净有形资产价值只是评估标准之一，一只股票值不值得买进，除了净有形资产价值之外，还要考虑其他的因素，例如前途展望。
所有的年报，都会提供该公司股票的每股净有形资产价值（Net Tangible Asset Per Share，简称NTA）。账目中所提供的数字，到底可靠不可靠？是比市价低还是高？
随手举一个例子说明：如果你翻阅刚出炉的第一控股工业（FACB IND）年报的话，你就可以找到答案。
轻易算出产业价值
每一本年报都有一个“产业表”，列出该公司所拥有的房地产的地点、用途、面积、年龄、地契年期（永久性还是租用期地契）、账面价值和估值年份。
从这些资料，你可以轻易的算出有关产业的价值，从而看出该公司的产业价值是高过或低过市价。
【例一】第一控股工业
就以第一控股工业来说，该公司在两个工业区拥有厂地和厂房：
第一个是在麻坡的丹绒阿卡斯工业区拥有约5英亩厂地，为梦乡床垫（Dreamland）的制造厂所在地（第一控股工业的前身为梦乡），这组厂房厂地在账目中的价值为312万6000令吉，或是每平方尺14令吉39仙，估值年度为1991年。目前在账目中的价值仍为19年前的价值。
19年来，这些厂地厂房的价值涨了多少倍？现在的市值是多少？我们无从估计，但有一点是肯定的，市值必然高过19年前的价值。
第二个地点是在雪兰莪莎阿南工业区的厂地和厂房，也就是该公司主要业务——白钢厂所在地，厂地20.144英亩，99年地契，到2098年届满，账面价值为3724万5000令吉，估值年度为1992年。
到底这18年来，莎阿南的工业地涨了多少倍？我没有足够的资料可以佐证。但常识告诉我们：18年前买下的厂地，现在价值肯定已上涨了几倍。所以，3724万5000令吉的账面价值，肯定是被低估。
所以，假如第一控股工业重估其地产的话，该公司的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比年报中的2令吉16仙为高。
【例二】金狮工业
金狮工业是另一个典型例子。该公司在巴生武吉拉查的60英亩钢铁厂厂地，在账目中的价值仅3160万令吉，那是1994年的估值，现在涨了多少倍？
该公司的地产多达30宗，分散在雪、甲、柔、槟等高成长区，估值年度由1991至2008年不等，市价肯定比账面价值高。
换句话说，金狮工业的每股净有形资产价值肯定高过年报中的4令吉25仙。
【例三】金兴工业
金兴工业（Kim Hin）是一家瓷砖制造厂。在古晋、芙蓉、上海、澳洲设有工厂及仓库。这些产业的估值年度为古晋：1992（31英亩）；芙蓉：1989（15.15英亩）；上海：1992（53英亩）；澳洲悉尼：1995（4.87英亩）；雪兰莪加埔：2005（5.98英亩）。
目前的价值，肯定比账面价值高几倍。如果重新估值，每股净有形资产价值肯定比3令吉08仙的账面价值高，难怪该公司大股东持续不断的从股市吸购该公司的股票。
该公司的每股现金及准现金（债券、单位信托等），几乎等于其股票市价。
【例四】东方实业
东方实业（Oriental Holdings）在年报中，以18页的编幅，列出该公司所拥有的房地产。
这些遍布大马各州及印尼的产业，用途包括园丘、工业地、酒店、商业地等，估值年度由1968年到2009年，但绝大部分是80及90年代的估值，除非全面重新估值，否则该公司董事恐怕也无法准确知道其价值。
但有一点是可以肯定的，这些房地产的市值，肯定比账面价值不知高多少倍。
换句话说，东方实业的每股净有形资产价值，肯定比在6月30日时的7令吉43仙为高。更值得注意的是，该公司在6月底时的净现金高达近20亿令吉，成为大马现金最充沛的上市公司之一。
我随手举几个例子，旨在说明一点：股价虽然已屡创高峰，实际上，许多上市公司的每股净有形资产价值仍比市价低一截。像这类公司，其实还很多，只要你深入阅读年报，你不难有所发现。
我要特别指出：每股净有形资产价值，只是评估股票价值是否被低估的标准之一而已。一只股票是否值得买进，还要配合其他的因素如本益比、周息率、现金流、前途展望等，才能决定，不能单看每股净资产价值。
但是，假如其他因素相同的话，每股净有形资产价值雄厚的公司，其股票更值得投资。
年报蕴藏着许多宝藏，等待你去发掘。有恒地深读年报，必有所发现。
分享锦集：莫做股市“过动儿”
去年8月15日，我在这个专栏发表一篇题为“不动如山两年”的文章，劝告股票投资者，握紧他们的股票为期两年，以博取厚利。
当时，大马综合指数为1,100点，15个月后的今天，指数已升至1,500点，那些坚守“不动如山”策略的股友，已取得非常丰厚的盈利。
次贷金融海啸于2009年第一季触底时，大马综合指数约为850点，在回升至1,100点时，许多股票分析师认为经济的复苏不可靠，股市回升得太快，纷纷警告股市将回跌，因此劝告股友套利离场。
我不同意此种看法和做法，因此才提出“不动如山两年”的主张，我认为散户应充份利用复苏机会，赚取厚利，太早离场，错过赚取厚利良机，未免可惜，毕竟金融海啸，恐怕10年也不会再现。
我主张“不动如山”，是我认为这是最适合散户的策略，可以减低风险，而获利最丰。如果散户自作聪明，不断的在股市中抢进杀出，愈买愈高，风险也愈大，所获盈利，未必比“不动如山”更多，倒不如以静待动，坐享其成。
抢进杀出
更重要是抢进杀出，精神受尽焦虑的煎熬，情绪不稳，影响健康、工作效率和家庭生活，所付出的代价太大，即使赚到钱，也是得不偿失，倒不如“不动如山”，安安稳稳赚钱，逍逍遥遥过活。
许多人对股票投资，有一种错误的想法，认为在股市中买卖越活跃，赚钱就越多，动作与盈利成正比。实际上刚好相反，在股市中越活跃，越难赚钱，反而是动作越少的人，赚钱越易，股市“过动儿”赚钱的少之又少。
动作要少
在这一轮的金融海啸中，不少人在谷底时买到股票，但大部份都在股价略为回升时就套利离场，所赚有限，无法弥补熊市中的损失。
在卖出后眼巴巴的看着股价以大涨小回调的形式上升，才为之痛心疾首，徒呼负负。
反而是那些在谷底买进后就紧握股票至今的投资者，取得惊人的回酬，充份说明了动作越少越好，这种做法，表面上看起来是老土，实际上是大智若愚。
在过去一年多中，世界经济发生了几件惊天动地的大事，首先是迪拜的倒账，接着是欧洲债市的濒临崩溃，悲观的经济学家及预言家，纷纷发出了经济“双底”论，认为世界经济将出现W的势。
这些论调，使在次贷金融海啸中惊魂未定的投资者，风声鹤唳，不敢在股市久留，结果错过了赚钱良机。
预言只可参考不能尽信
现在，再也没有人提迪拜事件、欧洲债务危机了。当然也没有人再提“双底”衰退了。我为今旧事重提，难免有事后孔明之讥，实际上，我是要藉以说明两点：
1.是经济学家和股市预言家的预言，失准的次数远多於准确的次数，因此，只可用作参考，切不可尽信。
2.许多事件，其严重性被过份渲染，甚至以偏盖全，误导对经济和股市认识不深的投资者，使他们对将来的趋势，以及前景，作错误诠释，从而作出错误的判断，坐失投资良机。
是的，现在毕竟已事过境迁，多说於事无补，目前大家所关心的是：将来的经济和股市走向如何？投资者该怎样做？当美国道琼斯工业指数回升至11,444点，而大马股市指数突破1,500点时，投资者是否应继续留在股市？手中没有股票的人该不该进场？
我的主张是：
1.手中已有股票的，应“不动如山一年”，一年以后审时度势再行决定去留。
2.手中没有股票的，应把重点转移至第2线股价尚未大幅度窜升，而价值仍被低估的股票，买进后紧握不放，等待牛市的出现。
股市难测
我没有预测股市动向的能力，也不认为任何人有这种能力，因为股市是不可预测的。无数的人企图采用各种的“工具”，预测股市动向，成功的巴仙率低之又低。
通常股市分析师都言之有理，问题是股市根本是不可理喻，因此一切的预言，不妨作为参考，切忌全盘照收。在这种情形之下，我们根据什么进行投资？
答案是：根据股票的价值。
在买进的时候，一定要作好心理准备：我们是认为一个牛市正在浮现，但是，万一我们的预测失准，那么，我们现在所买进的股票，是否物有所值？是否有前途？
反败为胜
如果买价合理，而公司前途亮丽，盈利会持续上升。
那么，即使股市逆转，股价回调，我们所买的股票价值与日俱增，暂时蒙受亏损，将来仍有机会回升，仍有机会反败为胜。
如果听信似是而非的传言买进劣股的话，一旦股市逆转，股价暴跌后，因公司蒙受亏蚀而使股价长期不振，投资者就没翻身机会了。
在无法预测股市的情况下，以“价值”作为买进的原则，是较为可靠的方法。
在买进时，一定要问自己：万一股价暴跌，我有胆识买进更多同一只股票吗？
如果答案是“是”的话，则不妨买进，如果是“否”的话，则最好不要买进。不敢在股价暴跌后买进更多同一只股票，说明了你对该股没有信心，而没有信心是因为你认识不够，或是对该股前途没有信心，切勿投资於你认识不够及没有信心的股票，这是股票投资不可妥协的铁则。
不动如山
美国经济复苏的步伐，已更稳健，大马周边国家如印尼、泰国、菲律宾的股市在外资炒作下，屡创新高，外资会移师大马吗？大马利息低沉，游资充沛，原产品龙腾虎跃，产业市场炽热，股市会长期蛰伏不动吗？1993年的牛市会重演吗？
在没有人能斩钉截铁地回答这些问题的情况下，散户最好的避险策略，就是不动如山。不动如山多久？去年8月我提出“不动如山两年”，一年已过去了，我现在建议“不动如山一年”。
建议选股标准：
1.股价合理（本益比10倍以下）
2.盈利有增长（来年盈利可望比往年高）
3.债低，若债高则必须现金流平稳。
4.周息率高於银行定存利息。
5.行业景气走上坡。
当时，大马综合指数为1,100点，15个月后的今天，指数已升至1,500点，那些坚守“不动如山”策略的股友，已取得非常丰厚的盈利。
次贷金融海啸于2009年第一季触底时，大马综合指数约为850点，在回升至1,100点时，许多股票分析师认为经济的复苏不可靠，股市回升得太快，纷纷警告股市将回跌，因此劝告股友套利离场。
我不同意此种看法和做法，因此才提出“不动如山两年”的主张，我认为散户应充份利用复苏机会，赚取厚利，太早离场，错过赚取厚利良机，未免可惜，毕竟金融海啸，恐怕10年也不会再现。
我主张“不动如山”，是我认为这是最适合散户的策略，可以减低风险，而获利最丰。如果散户自作聪明，不断的在股市中抢进杀出，愈买愈高，风险也愈大，所获盈利，未必比“不动如山”更多，倒不如以静待动，坐享其成。
抢进杀出
更重要是抢进杀出，精神受尽焦虑的煎熬，情绪不稳，影响健康、工作效率和家庭生活，所付出的代价太大，即使赚到钱，也是得不偿失，倒不如“不动如山”，安安稳稳赚钱，逍逍遥遥过活。
许多人对股票投资，有一种错误的想法，认为在股市中买卖越活跃，赚钱就越多，动作与盈利成正比。实际上刚好相反，在股市中越活跃，越难赚钱，反而是动作越少的人，赚钱越易，股市“过动儿”赚钱的少之又少。
动作要少
在这一轮的金融海啸中，不少人在谷底时买到股票，但大部份都在股价略为回升时就套利离场，所赚有限，无法弥补熊市中的损失。
在卖出后眼巴巴的看着股价以大涨小回调的形式上升，才为之痛心疾首，徒呼负负。
反而是那些在谷底买进后就紧握股票至今的投资者，取得惊人的回酬，充份说明了动作越少越好，这种做法，表面上看起来是老土，实际上是大智若愚。
在过去一年多中，世界经济发生了几件惊天动地的大事，首先是迪拜的倒账，接着是欧洲债市的濒临崩溃，悲观的经济学家及预言家，纷纷发出了经济“双底”论，认为世界经济将出现W的势。
这些论调，使在次贷金融海啸中惊魂未定的投资者，风声鹤唳，不敢在股市久留，结果错过了赚钱良机。
预言只可参考不能尽信
现在，再也没有人提迪拜事件、欧洲债务危机了。当然也没有人再提“双底”衰退了。我为今旧事重提，难免有事后孔明之讥，实际上，我是要藉以说明两点：
1.是经济学家和股市预言家的预言，失准的次数远多於准确的次数，因此，只可用作参考，切不可尽信。
2.许多事件，其严重性被过份渲染，甚至以偏盖全，误导对经济和股市认识不深的投资者，使他们对将来的趋势，以及前景，作错误诠释，从而作出错误的判断，坐失投资良机。
是的，现在毕竟已事过境迁，多说於事无补，目前大家所关心的是：将来的经济和股市走向如何？投资者该怎样做？当美国道琼斯工业指数回升至11,444点，而大马股市指数突破1,500点时，投资者是否应继续留在股市？手中没有股票的人该不该进场？
我的主张是：
1.手中已有股票的，应“不动如山一年”，一年以后审时度势再行决定去留。
2.手中没有股票的，应把重点转移至第2线股价尚未大幅度窜升，而价值仍被低估的股票，买进后紧握不放，等待牛市的出现。
股市难测
我没有预测股市动向的能力，也不认为任何人有这种能力，因为股市是不可预测的。无数的人企图采用各种的“工具”，预测股市动向，成功的巴仙率低之又低。
通常股市分析师都言之有理，问题是股市根本是不可理喻，因此一切的预言，不妨作为参考，切忌全盘照收。在这种情形之下，我们根据什么进行投资？
答案是：根据股票的价值。
在买进的时候，一定要作好心理准备：我们是认为一个牛市正在浮现，但是，万一我们的预测失准，那么，我们现在所买进的股票，是否物有所值？是否有前途？
反败为胜
如果买价合理，而公司前途亮丽，盈利会持续上升。
那么，即使股市逆转，股价回调，我们所买的股票价值与日俱增，暂时蒙受亏损，将来仍有机会回升，仍有机会反败为胜。
如果听信似是而非的传言买进劣股的话，一旦股市逆转，股价暴跌后，因公司蒙受亏蚀而使股价长期不振，投资者就没翻身机会了。
在无法预测股市的情况下，以“价值”作为买进的原则，是较为可靠的方法。
在买进时，一定要问自己：万一股价暴跌，我有胆识买进更多同一只股票吗？
如果答案是“是”的话，则不妨买进，如果是“否”的话，则最好不要买进。不敢在股价暴跌后买进更多同一只股票，说明了你对该股没有信心，而没有信心是因为你认识不够，或是对该股前途没有信心，切勿投资於你认识不够及没有信心的股票，这是股票投资不可妥协的铁则。
不动如山
美国经济复苏的步伐，已更稳健，大马周边国家如印尼、泰国、菲律宾的股市在外资炒作下，屡创新高，外资会移师大马吗？大马利息低沉，游资充沛，原产品龙腾虎跃，产业市场炽热，股市会长期蛰伏不动吗？1993年的牛市会重演吗？
在没有人能斩钉截铁地回答这些问题的情况下，散户最好的避险策略，就是不动如山。不动如山多久？去年8月我提出“不动如山两年”，一年已过去了，我现在建议“不动如山一年”。
建议选股标准：
1.股价合理（本益比10倍以下）
2.盈利有增长（来年盈利可望比往年高）
3.债低，若债高则必须现金流平稳。
4.周息率高於银行定存利息。
5.行业景气走上坡。
Monday, November 29, 2010
Suntec REIT May Fall On Private Placement News
Expect knee-jerk reaction to Suntec REIT''s planned placement of up to 320 million new units, as 3.5%-6.0% discount to S$1.43 last traded price may spur some selling; REIT selling units at S$1.34-S$1.38, raising up to S$428.8 million to part finance acquisition of one-third stake in MBFC Towers 1, 2, Marina Bay Link Mall, 695 parking spaces.
No details on management''s expectation for DPU accretion, but increased exposure to grade-A office space in upcoming Marina Bay widely seen as positive, with office currently hottest among Singapore property segments.
Deutsche Bank, which has Buy rating, S$1.65 target, estimates slight 2.8%-3.5% (0.25-0.31 cents) accretion to FY11 DPU from buy; when buy announced in October said "operationally, while retail continues to be relatively weak, demand trends for office are positive."
No details on when trade to resume; units likely to hold above issue price range.
No details on management''s expectation for DPU accretion, but increased exposure to grade-A office space in upcoming Marina Bay widely seen as positive, with office currently hottest among Singapore property segments.
Deutsche Bank, which has Buy rating, S$1.65 target, estimates slight 2.8%-3.5% (0.25-0.31 cents) accretion to FY11 DPU from buy; when buy announced in October said "operationally, while retail continues to be relatively weak, demand trends for office are positive."
No details on when trade to resume; units likely to hold above issue price range.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
塞思·卡拉曼：现金管理的意义
塞思·卡拉曼经常保持45%-50%的现金，但这并不妨碍他在20余年的时间里取得年均复合超过20%的回报率。
虽然沃伦·巴菲特曾说现金是垃圾，但卡拉曼深知，有时候现金就是最好的投资。以日本市场为例，由于日本隔夜储蓄市场的利率几乎为零，因此许多投资者从该市场退出并在其他地方寻找投资。2003年6月，他们接受了年收益率仅为0.44%的10年期债券。到了10月，这一债券价格从高于面值跌至面值的90%以下——使得收益率超过1.5%。于是投资者在这4个月中赔的钱是他们持有这一荒唐定价的债券整整10年获得的总回报的两倍还多。
现金就是最好的投资，不过，这一点却常常被投资者所忽略，其中也包括我个人在内。如果说许多投资者认为在市场下跌时持有现金尚且是难以容忍的，那么在市场上涨时持有现金更是考虑都不会考虑的策略——从这一点似乎可以折射出投资者是时不时地讨厌现金，这真是一件很有趣的事。这也难怪，对于他们而言，没有完全动用所有的现金，似乎就赚不到钱，因此应该将现金充分利用，使之最大化。还有他们过于看重相对表现，也就是回报与市场相比如何，这也是不能保持现金的重要原因。为了在某一个上涨的市场中避免表现不好，许多职业投资者甚至制定保持满仓的强制指令。
与大多数投资者相反，卡拉曼一直认为成功的投资要求必须认识到，持有现金是什么都不做直至极富吸引力的投资机会出现的安全投资之道。它提供了虽然很有限但是正的收益率、本金的彻底安全以及完全即时的流动性。一定要深刻认识到，在没有更好的投资选择的情况下，微小的正回报率并且几乎不存在风险的现金并不是一个一个很糟糕的投资对象。卡拉曼的看法是，没有极富吸引力的投资选择，投资者就应该持有现金，这不是因为他们做了一个由上而下的资产配置决策决定持有现金，而是基于从下而上寻找廉价投资得出的结果。包普斯特都是在最好的机会出手，否则就持有现金，即便现金占投资合伙企业资产的比重已经很高。
当卡拉曼的包普斯特基金投资时，都要将每一个投资和现金进行比较。如果一笔投资优于现金的程度足够高——该投资提供的回报高于适当的风险，那么这笔投资可以做。值得注意的是，做出这笔投资并不是因为现金不好，而是因为这笔投资很好。出于其他任何理由放弃现金都是危险的想法，并将大幅提高风险水平。
巴菲特也有类似的看法观点，虽然他曾说最差的投资就是持有现金。然而对于自己持有足够的现金，巴菲特解释说，这能让他不会在睡觉的时候感到担忧。但这并不意味着他喜欢将现金作为一种投资。“长期内现金是无利可图的投资。但你总要有足够的现金，以避免别人可以决定你的未来。”这几乎就是现金管理的意义所在。
不过，对于价值投资者而言，知道在没有更好的投资机会的情况下应该持有现金是一回事，真正将这种想法付诸实施则是另一回事。当许多人因为投机而大赚特赚的时候，你很难无动于衷。卡拉曼发现推动一个人投机的不是投机的诱惑，而是一个人想做什么的愿望。但是，什么都不做也是一种策略：什么都不做意味着寻找潜在的投资并排除掉那些不能满足你的投资标准。但是从情感角度来说，什么都不做看起来就像无事可做，这会让人觉得不舒服、没有作为、没有想象力、没有激情，并且可能在一段时间内的投资落后与大市。这就是人类一种奇怪的心理状态。
然而，也就是在这时候，或许才能真正知道特立独行是一种什么样的感觉，特别是当持有大量现金的时候。因此没有什么人能够这么做，当然巴菲特这样做了，卡拉曼也这样做了，不过肯定只有很少的人能够理解为什么会有人这么做。而且，相信未来将出现比目前更好的投资机会并不能保证未来真的出现更好的机会。谁知道明天的投资者
会愿不愿意为证券付出更高的价格呢？与为今天的证券支付更高的价格相比，等待未来出现廉价投资这一策略可能更好。不过，明天的估值水平可能会更高。另外，脱离满仓的大众很长一段时间是一个紧张、羞辱和消沉的体验,这几乎就是心理层面的东西了。
卡拉曼指出，许多投资者总是将现金可怜的当前收益率和股票收益率进行比较，而在比较中现金总是落败。因此，他们不管这些投资选择的绝对估值可能处于多么离谱的水平。如此看来，对于许多投资者而言，最紧迫的问题是他们的投资视距太短。关于投资，一个最大的问题是今天可以获得的投资机会并不是你应该考虑的投资机会的全部。仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象如同在你高中的班级选择配偶一样地狭隘。卡拉曼说，准确预测未来投资机会的数量和吸引力很难，或许是不可能的，但是忽略它们不存在就愚蠢了。永远不要仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象。
虽然沃伦·巴菲特曾说现金是垃圾，但卡拉曼深知，有时候现金就是最好的投资。以日本市场为例，由于日本隔夜储蓄市场的利率几乎为零，因此许多投资者从该市场退出并在其他地方寻找投资。2003年6月，他们接受了年收益率仅为0.44%的10年期债券。到了10月，这一债券价格从高于面值跌至面值的90%以下——使得收益率超过1.5%。于是投资者在这4个月中赔的钱是他们持有这一荒唐定价的债券整整10年获得的总回报的两倍还多。
现金就是最好的投资，不过，这一点却常常被投资者所忽略，其中也包括我个人在内。如果说许多投资者认为在市场下跌时持有现金尚且是难以容忍的，那么在市场上涨时持有现金更是考虑都不会考虑的策略——从这一点似乎可以折射出投资者是时不时地讨厌现金，这真是一件很有趣的事。这也难怪，对于他们而言，没有完全动用所有的现金，似乎就赚不到钱，因此应该将现金充分利用，使之最大化。还有他们过于看重相对表现，也就是回报与市场相比如何，这也是不能保持现金的重要原因。为了在某一个上涨的市场中避免表现不好，许多职业投资者甚至制定保持满仓的强制指令。
与大多数投资者相反，卡拉曼一直认为成功的投资要求必须认识到，持有现金是什么都不做直至极富吸引力的投资机会出现的安全投资之道。它提供了虽然很有限但是正的收益率、本金的彻底安全以及完全即时的流动性。一定要深刻认识到，在没有更好的投资选择的情况下，微小的正回报率并且几乎不存在风险的现金并不是一个一个很糟糕的投资对象。卡拉曼的看法是，没有极富吸引力的投资选择，投资者就应该持有现金，这不是因为他们做了一个由上而下的资产配置决策决定持有现金，而是基于从下而上寻找廉价投资得出的结果。包普斯特都是在最好的机会出手，否则就持有现金，即便现金占投资合伙企业资产的比重已经很高。
当卡拉曼的包普斯特基金投资时，都要将每一个投资和现金进行比较。如果一笔投资优于现金的程度足够高——该投资提供的回报高于适当的风险，那么这笔投资可以做。值得注意的是，做出这笔投资并不是因为现金不好，而是因为这笔投资很好。出于其他任何理由放弃现金都是危险的想法，并将大幅提高风险水平。
巴菲特也有类似的看法观点，虽然他曾说最差的投资就是持有现金。然而对于自己持有足够的现金，巴菲特解释说，这能让他不会在睡觉的时候感到担忧。但这并不意味着他喜欢将现金作为一种投资。“长期内现金是无利可图的投资。但你总要有足够的现金，以避免别人可以决定你的未来。”这几乎就是现金管理的意义所在。
不过，对于价值投资者而言，知道在没有更好的投资机会的情况下应该持有现金是一回事，真正将这种想法付诸实施则是另一回事。当许多人因为投机而大赚特赚的时候，你很难无动于衷。卡拉曼发现推动一个人投机的不是投机的诱惑，而是一个人想做什么的愿望。但是，什么都不做也是一种策略：什么都不做意味着寻找潜在的投资并排除掉那些不能满足你的投资标准。但是从情感角度来说，什么都不做看起来就像无事可做，这会让人觉得不舒服、没有作为、没有想象力、没有激情，并且可能在一段时间内的投资落后与大市。这就是人类一种奇怪的心理状态。
然而，也就是在这时候，或许才能真正知道特立独行是一种什么样的感觉，特别是当持有大量现金的时候。因此没有什么人能够这么做，当然巴菲特这样做了，卡拉曼也这样做了，不过肯定只有很少的人能够理解为什么会有人这么做。而且，相信未来将出现比目前更好的投资机会并不能保证未来真的出现更好的机会。谁知道明天的投资者
会愿不愿意为证券付出更高的价格呢？与为今天的证券支付更高的价格相比，等待未来出现廉价投资这一策略可能更好。不过，明天的估值水平可能会更高。另外，脱离满仓的大众很长一段时间是一个紧张、羞辱和消沉的体验,这几乎就是心理层面的东西了。
卡拉曼指出，许多投资者总是将现金可怜的当前收益率和股票收益率进行比较，而在比较中现金总是落败。因此，他们不管这些投资选择的绝对估值可能处于多么离谱的水平。如此看来，对于许多投资者而言，最紧迫的问题是他们的投资视距太短。关于投资，一个最大的问题是今天可以获得的投资机会并不是你应该考虑的投资机会的全部。仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象如同在你高中的班级选择配偶一样地狭隘。卡拉曼说，准确预测未来投资机会的数量和吸引力很难，或许是不可能的，但是忽略它们不存在就愚蠢了。永远不要仅仅根据今天的机会来选择投资对象。
控房价、抑物价必使股市上涨
交换、购买是工业社会的核心，股市是经济的晴雨表，经济增长加快，股市上涨；经济衰退，股市下跌，这是工业社会人们早已熟悉的真理。商业社会是投资为主的时代，价值、投资是商业社会的核心，人们在商业社会始终都在寻找投资的对象，能够带来价值的商品是人们在工业社会后期形成的大量货币投资的标的物。
工业社会投资的品种比较单一，它是以发展经济为主的时代，所以投资品种基本就是股市，进入商业社会，发生了深刻的变化，人们的投资品种非常丰富，主要的投资是房地产投资，它能够带来社会价值（即社会支持），获得名誉。还有农副产品在工业社会的二元经济结构下，长期被低估，部分资金进入农副产品市场进行投资，获得人际价值。因此出现了人们担心的通货膨胀（物价全面上涨过快）和加速上涨的房价泡沫，也就出现了今天的控房价、抑物价。
按照人们学习的经济学理论，在提高存款准备金和加息的压力下，股市肯定是下跌的，也是不利于经济的发展（货币收紧）。但是从价值营销理论的分析中，正好得出相反的结论，控房价和抑物价，运用跳跃思维使所有投资的资金进入股市进行有价证券的投资，控房价和抑物价的政策越来越严厉，股市上涨的资金就会越来越宽裕，必将促使股市迅速上涨，在商业社会根本不用担心资金面（基本面）适当收紧给股市带来多大的影响，相反它只能证明政府抑制通胀的决心和能力，并非针对经济发展采取的政策取向。
工业社会投资的品种比较单一，它是以发展经济为主的时代，所以投资品种基本就是股市，进入商业社会，发生了深刻的变化，人们的投资品种非常丰富，主要的投资是房地产投资，它能够带来社会价值（即社会支持），获得名誉。还有农副产品在工业社会的二元经济结构下，长期被低估，部分资金进入农副产品市场进行投资，获得人际价值。因此出现了人们担心的通货膨胀（物价全面上涨过快）和加速上涨的房价泡沫，也就出现了今天的控房价、抑物价。
按照人们学习的经济学理论，在提高存款准备金和加息的压力下，股市肯定是下跌的，也是不利于经济的发展（货币收紧）。但是从价值营销理论的分析中，正好得出相反的结论，控房价和抑物价，运用跳跃思维使所有投资的资金进入股市进行有价证券的投资，控房价和抑物价的政策越来越严厉，股市上涨的资金就会越来越宽裕，必将促使股市迅速上涨，在商业社会根本不用担心资金面（基本面）适当收紧给股市带来多大的影响，相反它只能证明政府抑制通胀的决心和能力，并非针对经济发展采取的政策取向。
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
World's Top Retirement Havens For 2011
As we move toward the start of the new year, it's time to take a look at the world map to identify the world's top retirement havens for 2011. Depending on the size of your retirement budget, here's where you should be looking to realize the adventure-filled retirement of your dreams.
Super Affordable
1. Nicaragua -- specifically Leon, Granada, and San Juan del Sur. Nicaragua is more attractive than ever for one important reason: It's a super cheap place to live. I've been a fan of this misunderstood country since my first visit nearly 20 years ago. Property values, especially for beachfront property along the Pacific, reached bubble status last decade. Today prices are more realistic and more negotiable. In the meantime, the cost-of-living has remained seriously low. And last year Nicaragua inaugurated a new and improved foreign retiree residency program. For all these reasons, 2011 is the time to put this country at the top of your super-cheap overseas retirement list.
2. Ecuador -- specifically Cuenca. Ecuador is well established as an affordable retirement choice. A friend calls it, "the cheapest place in the world where you'd want to live". This expat-friendly country also has a pleasant climate.
3. Colombia -- specifically Medellin. This moderately priced country is cultured and sophisticated. To live an expat-standard lifestyle in Colombia, I think you would need to spend more than you would in Nicaragua or Ecuador. Real estate, on the other hand, especially in certain areas of this country, can be a screaming bargain.
4. Thailand -- specifically Chiang Mai. This exotic and adventure-filled country can be, in parts, extraordinarily affordable and even peaceful.
Moderately Priced
1. Panama -- specifically Las Tablas, Boquete, and Panama City. Panama City has the best infrastructure in all of Central America, but it no longer qualifies as super-cheap. Other places in the country can be affordable. But the cost-of-living and of real estate in the capital and other more developed parts of the country has risen to the point where I wouldn't include Panama on our list of bargain havens.
2. Uruguay -- specifically Montevideo. Uruguay is safe and stable with a good standard of living.
3. Argentina -- specifically Buenos Aires and Mendoza. This is another country that used to qualify as super-cheap but has grown steadily more expensive. Still, Argentina has much to offer in the way of lifestyle.
4. Belize -- specifically Ambergris Caye and the Cayo. Ambergris Caye has white sand and the best diving in the Caribbean. This area isn't absolutely cheap, but it can be relatively affordable compared with the cost-of-living and of owning beachfront real estate on other Caribbean islands. Elsewhere in Belize can be far more affordable than Ambergris. The Cayo, for example, is a beautiful frontier where you can escape from the real world and create your own future. It's also an English-speaking country.
5. Malaysia -- specifically Kuala Lumpur and Penang. This is the most user-friendly and expat-friendly choice in Asia. Malaysia is the only country in this part of the world that makes it relatively easy for a foreigner to establish legal full-time residency.
Luxury on a Budget
1. Mexico -- specifically Puerto Vallarta. My recently-rediscovered top pick for living the good life on a reasonable budget is Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. This is a fully turn-key overseas retirement option that, unlike Ajijic and Chapala, has managed to retain its Mexico-ness. This charming town boasts great restaurants and nightlife. The beaches, marinas, and golf courses are beautiful. This is my top 2011 choice for a five-star retirement at the beach on a three-star budget.
2. France -- specifically Paris and Languedoc. France is a country of superlatives and one of the best places on earth to live well. Paris has the world's best luxury lifestyle options while Languedoc offers quintessential French country living.
Get started now, and you could be living the good life in your new home overseas by this time next year.
Super Affordable
1. Nicaragua -- specifically Leon, Granada, and San Juan del Sur. Nicaragua is more attractive than ever for one important reason: It's a super cheap place to live. I've been a fan of this misunderstood country since my first visit nearly 20 years ago. Property values, especially for beachfront property along the Pacific, reached bubble status last decade. Today prices are more realistic and more negotiable. In the meantime, the cost-of-living has remained seriously low. And last year Nicaragua inaugurated a new and improved foreign retiree residency program. For all these reasons, 2011 is the time to put this country at the top of your super-cheap overseas retirement list.
2. Ecuador -- specifically Cuenca. Ecuador is well established as an affordable retirement choice. A friend calls it, "the cheapest place in the world where you'd want to live". This expat-friendly country also has a pleasant climate.
3. Colombia -- specifically Medellin. This moderately priced country is cultured and sophisticated. To live an expat-standard lifestyle in Colombia, I think you would need to spend more than you would in Nicaragua or Ecuador. Real estate, on the other hand, especially in certain areas of this country, can be a screaming bargain.
4. Thailand -- specifically Chiang Mai. This exotic and adventure-filled country can be, in parts, extraordinarily affordable and even peaceful.
Moderately Priced
1. Panama -- specifically Las Tablas, Boquete, and Panama City. Panama City has the best infrastructure in all of Central America, but it no longer qualifies as super-cheap. Other places in the country can be affordable. But the cost-of-living and of real estate in the capital and other more developed parts of the country has risen to the point where I wouldn't include Panama on our list of bargain havens.
2. Uruguay -- specifically Montevideo. Uruguay is safe and stable with a good standard of living.
3. Argentina -- specifically Buenos Aires and Mendoza. This is another country that used to qualify as super-cheap but has grown steadily more expensive. Still, Argentina has much to offer in the way of lifestyle.
4. Belize -- specifically Ambergris Caye and the Cayo. Ambergris Caye has white sand and the best diving in the Caribbean. This area isn't absolutely cheap, but it can be relatively affordable compared with the cost-of-living and of owning beachfront real estate on other Caribbean islands. Elsewhere in Belize can be far more affordable than Ambergris. The Cayo, for example, is a beautiful frontier where you can escape from the real world and create your own future. It's also an English-speaking country.
5. Malaysia -- specifically Kuala Lumpur and Penang. This is the most user-friendly and expat-friendly choice in Asia. Malaysia is the only country in this part of the world that makes it relatively easy for a foreigner to establish legal full-time residency.
Luxury on a Budget
1. Mexico -- specifically Puerto Vallarta. My recently-rediscovered top pick for living the good life on a reasonable budget is Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. This is a fully turn-key overseas retirement option that, unlike Ajijic and Chapala, has managed to retain its Mexico-ness. This charming town boasts great restaurants and nightlife. The beaches, marinas, and golf courses are beautiful. This is my top 2011 choice for a five-star retirement at the beach on a three-star budget.
2. France -- specifically Paris and Languedoc. France is a country of superlatives and one of the best places on earth to live well. Paris has the world's best luxury lifestyle options while Languedoc offers quintessential French country living.
Get started now, and you could be living the good life in your new home overseas by this time next year.
Monday, November 15, 2010
How to Protect Yourself from the Crash of 2011
There’s going to be a massive stock and bond market selloff in the first half of 2011.
Not only that, the selloff could cause a worldwide financial disaster, global market crashes and the destruction of wealth that will make the popping of the dotcom and housing bubbles feel like a mild inconvenience.
Why?
Because, quite simply, America is playing a dangerous game of “chicken” with its national debt. And the ramifications are extraordinary. I’m going to explain the situation and give you three ways to protect yourself from this mess before it’s too late…
Debt Doomsday: Coming in May 2011
America’s debt ceiling currently stands at $14.3 trillion. This is the level that, by law, the government’s debt is not allowed to exceed.
Trouble is, the government’s present debt has swelled to $13.7 trillion.
This means that at the current rate, we’re on course to smash through that $14.3 trillion ceiling around May 2011 (although it might happen a month or two later, depending on what budget cuts are enacted in the next few months and how quickly they’re implemented).
So what will the government do about this? Same thing it’s done almost every year since 1962: Raise the debt ceiling so America can pay its bills.
Congress really has no choice in the matter either. If the ceiling isn’t raised, we’ve got a problem. A very big one.
A Fistful of Dominos
Without Congressional approval for additional debt, the U.S government cannot pay its bills – most notably, interest payments on treasury bonds, bills and notes.
If America defaults on those payments, or even misses them by just one day, the domino effect would be brutal…
Domino #1: The country would lose its AAA credit rating and those bonds, bills and notes would no longer enjoy their status as the safest investments on the planet.
Domino #2: In turn, a lower credit rating would mean that the United States would pay higher interest on its bonds in order to attract investors. Result?
Domino #3: A tidal wave of selling through fixed income markets, driving interest rates higher still.
Domino #4: Social Security would be hit hard, as its funds are invested in Treasuries. Suddenly, Social Security would have far less resources than just a day or two earlier.
Domino #5: If money is pouring out of so-called “safe” investments, you can bet that in that kind of environment, the demand for riskier investments would be next to nil. Stocks and financial markets around the globe would plummet.
So why is this year’s Congressional raising of the debt limit different than every other?
To Raise or Not to Raise?
Simple: This year, some members of Congress have said they won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling. And they may be serious this time.
Earlier this year, 38 Republican Senators voted against raising the ceiling. However, they did so, knowing full well that they’d be outvoted and that the limit would be raised despite their “objections.” That way, they could return to their Congressional districts, claiming some semblance of fiscal responsibility.
Their vote didn’t matter so much back then… but with the Republicans having wrestled control of the House of Representatives last week, it sure does now.
It throws up an interesting dilemma. The Republicans – and particularly the Tea Party candidates who ran on a platform of cutting spending and the deficit – will have a very difficult choice to make. Either go back on their word and vote for an increase in the debt ceiling, or vote against it and run the risk of financial calamity.
It’s still early, but some Senators are already threatening to vote “no.”
Senator-elect Rand Paul of Kentucky has indicated that he won’t vote in favor of raising the debt ceiling.
South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint said he won’t vote to raise the limit unless it’s combined with some plan to balance the budget, return to 2008 spending levels and repeal President Obama’s healthcare plan.
When asked if he’d vote against a debt ceiling increase, even if it leads to a government shutdown, Utah Senator-elect Mike Lee answered, “It’s an inconvenience. It would be frustrating to many people and it’s not a great thing, yet at the same time, it’s not something we can rule out.”
And Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told CNN, “We’re not going to compromise on raising more debt or the debt ceiling.”
This may be a dangerous political strategy…
History Repeating? Not Likely…
In 1995, the Republicans threatened President Clinton with shutting down the government if he didn’t agree to their budget. Clinton vowed that he’d never agree to it, even if his approval rating fell to 5%.
He won, too. The government did in fact shut down and the Republicans were the focal point of America’s anger. President Clinton’s approval numbers actually went up.
Flash forward to today. President Obama is likely aware of this history. And while he may be willing to negotiate on spending cuts, he will not repeal healthcare reform, which is the hallmark of his Presidency.
For Obama, though, the situation in 2011 will be much worse than it was for Clinton in 1995. I’m talking about a meltdown in the stock and bond markets.
Bill Busting… Washington Style
Bruce Bartlett, a former advisor to President Reagan and deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department under President George H.W. Bush, recently stated, “You introduce even the tiniest little bit of doubt into the minds of ultra-conservative investors and that’s potentially disastrous. It hurts our ability to raise money without a risk premium.”
Representative John Boehner, the new Speaker of the House, appears to be more realistic than his colleagues in the Senate. He’s indicated that he’d vote for raising the debt ceiling as long as it accompanies spending reductions.
The bottom line, though, is this: The Senate likely doesn’t have the votes to defeat a bill to raise the debt ceiling, while the House does.
And in the end, it doesn’t matter. The bill doesn’t have to be defeated. A filibuster accomplishes the same thing. Don’t forget, this bill must be passed by the date we hit the ceiling, otherwise the government goes into default. It’s not something that can be put off until later.
So, in fact, a filibuster is even more powerful than a “no” vote. And the mere threat of a filibuster could spook investors badly enough to sell first and ask questions later.
You need to go about protecting yourself as soon as possible…
Protect Yourself From America’s Debt Showdown
There are a few investments that will likely do well in the chaotic environment I just described…
Gold: The resilient yellow metal should soar as the U.S. dollar sinks and investors flee to safety. If you don’t want to own the metal itself, you can buy the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD) ETF, which serves as a close proxy to the price of gold bullion.
Short Treasuries (Option 1): Consider the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBF), which aims for a 100% inverse correlation to the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index.
Short Treasuries (Option 2): If you’re a more aggressive investor, take a look at the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT). It seeks to obtain results that are double the inverse daily performance of the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury
Bond Index. So if the index falls 10%, the ETF should gain about 20%.
Remember: From most crises comes opportunity. Investors who are agile and aware of the potential debt ceiling landmine can grab profits by getting into the right investments at the right time.
Additionally, the ensuing volatility may create buying opportunities for some of your favorite stocks, so be sure to put together a watchlist of stocks you’re interested in owning at lower prices.
Hoping your longs go up and your shorts go down,
Marc Lichtenfeld
Not only that, the selloff could cause a worldwide financial disaster, global market crashes and the destruction of wealth that will make the popping of the dotcom and housing bubbles feel like a mild inconvenience.
Why?
Because, quite simply, America is playing a dangerous game of “chicken” with its national debt. And the ramifications are extraordinary. I’m going to explain the situation and give you three ways to protect yourself from this mess before it’s too late…
Debt Doomsday: Coming in May 2011
America’s debt ceiling currently stands at $14.3 trillion. This is the level that, by law, the government’s debt is not allowed to exceed.
Trouble is, the government’s present debt has swelled to $13.7 trillion.
This means that at the current rate, we’re on course to smash through that $14.3 trillion ceiling around May 2011 (although it might happen a month or two later, depending on what budget cuts are enacted in the next few months and how quickly they’re implemented).
So what will the government do about this? Same thing it’s done almost every year since 1962: Raise the debt ceiling so America can pay its bills.
Congress really has no choice in the matter either. If the ceiling isn’t raised, we’ve got a problem. A very big one.
A Fistful of Dominos
Without Congressional approval for additional debt, the U.S government cannot pay its bills – most notably, interest payments on treasury bonds, bills and notes.
If America defaults on those payments, or even misses them by just one day, the domino effect would be brutal…
Domino #1: The country would lose its AAA credit rating and those bonds, bills and notes would no longer enjoy their status as the safest investments on the planet.
Domino #2: In turn, a lower credit rating would mean that the United States would pay higher interest on its bonds in order to attract investors. Result?
Domino #3: A tidal wave of selling through fixed income markets, driving interest rates higher still.
Domino #4: Social Security would be hit hard, as its funds are invested in Treasuries. Suddenly, Social Security would have far less resources than just a day or two earlier.
Domino #5: If money is pouring out of so-called “safe” investments, you can bet that in that kind of environment, the demand for riskier investments would be next to nil. Stocks and financial markets around the globe would plummet.
So why is this year’s Congressional raising of the debt limit different than every other?
To Raise or Not to Raise?
Simple: This year, some members of Congress have said they won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling. And they may be serious this time.
Earlier this year, 38 Republican Senators voted against raising the ceiling. However, they did so, knowing full well that they’d be outvoted and that the limit would be raised despite their “objections.” That way, they could return to their Congressional districts, claiming some semblance of fiscal responsibility.
Their vote didn’t matter so much back then… but with the Republicans having wrestled control of the House of Representatives last week, it sure does now.
It throws up an interesting dilemma. The Republicans – and particularly the Tea Party candidates who ran on a platform of cutting spending and the deficit – will have a very difficult choice to make. Either go back on their word and vote for an increase in the debt ceiling, or vote against it and run the risk of financial calamity.
It’s still early, but some Senators are already threatening to vote “no.”
Senator-elect Rand Paul of Kentucky has indicated that he won’t vote in favor of raising the debt ceiling.
South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint said he won’t vote to raise the limit unless it’s combined with some plan to balance the budget, return to 2008 spending levels and repeal President Obama’s healthcare plan.
When asked if he’d vote against a debt ceiling increase, even if it leads to a government shutdown, Utah Senator-elect Mike Lee answered, “It’s an inconvenience. It would be frustrating to many people and it’s not a great thing, yet at the same time, it’s not something we can rule out.”
And Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told CNN, “We’re not going to compromise on raising more debt or the debt ceiling.”
This may be a dangerous political strategy…
History Repeating? Not Likely…
In 1995, the Republicans threatened President Clinton with shutting down the government if he didn’t agree to their budget. Clinton vowed that he’d never agree to it, even if his approval rating fell to 5%.
He won, too. The government did in fact shut down and the Republicans were the focal point of America’s anger. President Clinton’s approval numbers actually went up.
Flash forward to today. President Obama is likely aware of this history. And while he may be willing to negotiate on spending cuts, he will not repeal healthcare reform, which is the hallmark of his Presidency.
For Obama, though, the situation in 2011 will be much worse than it was for Clinton in 1995. I’m talking about a meltdown in the stock and bond markets.
Bill Busting… Washington Style
Bruce Bartlett, a former advisor to President Reagan and deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department under President George H.W. Bush, recently stated, “You introduce even the tiniest little bit of doubt into the minds of ultra-conservative investors and that’s potentially disastrous. It hurts our ability to raise money without a risk premium.”
Representative John Boehner, the new Speaker of the House, appears to be more realistic than his colleagues in the Senate. He’s indicated that he’d vote for raising the debt ceiling as long as it accompanies spending reductions.
The bottom line, though, is this: The Senate likely doesn’t have the votes to defeat a bill to raise the debt ceiling, while the House does.
And in the end, it doesn’t matter. The bill doesn’t have to be defeated. A filibuster accomplishes the same thing. Don’t forget, this bill must be passed by the date we hit the ceiling, otherwise the government goes into default. It’s not something that can be put off until later.
So, in fact, a filibuster is even more powerful than a “no” vote. And the mere threat of a filibuster could spook investors badly enough to sell first and ask questions later.
You need to go about protecting yourself as soon as possible…
Protect Yourself From America’s Debt Showdown
There are a few investments that will likely do well in the chaotic environment I just described…
Gold: The resilient yellow metal should soar as the U.S. dollar sinks and investors flee to safety. If you don’t want to own the metal itself, you can buy the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD) ETF, which serves as a close proxy to the price of gold bullion.
Short Treasuries (Option 1): Consider the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBF), which aims for a 100% inverse correlation to the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index.
Short Treasuries (Option 2): If you’re a more aggressive investor, take a look at the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT). It seeks to obtain results that are double the inverse daily performance of the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury
Bond Index. So if the index falls 10%, the ETF should gain about 20%.
Remember: From most crises comes opportunity. Investors who are agile and aware of the potential debt ceiling landmine can grab profits by getting into the right investments at the right time.
Additionally, the ensuing volatility may create buying opportunities for some of your favorite stocks, so be sure to put together a watchlist of stocks you’re interested in owning at lower prices.
Hoping your longs go up and your shorts go down,
Marc Lichtenfeld
Sunday, November 14, 2010
如果美国继续狂印钞票……
大量热钱涌入亚洲等新兴经济体推高资产价格，为世界经济埋下一颗最大的定时炸弹，当前情景让我们想起了10多年前的亚洲金融危机。
现在不只是美国在印钞票，英国也在静悄悄地印钞票，日本也是。当美英日大开资金闸门救经济时，热钱持续在亚洲乱窜，亚洲股市出现不同程度的涨幅，房地产价格压不下来，通货膨胀走高。如果最后美国经济还是救不起来，美国联邦储备局会继续印钞票，热钱也会继续流入亚洲，可能导致亚洲金融危机的历史重演。
热钱的规模过大，要通过征税、放慢资本流入等方式来管制、对抗和阻止都不是长久之计。根据估计，目前每天有20亿美元热钱流入亚太市场，最终热钱的规模可能高达5200亿美元。
情况与1997年不同
亚洲货币面临较大的升值压力，其中一个原因是亚洲如今已成为全球经济增长最快速的地区，当前的情况和1997年亚洲金融风暴时不一样，当年全球热钱涌入亚洲，导致楼市和股市泡沫化，当资金突然大量撤走时，危机就产生了，资产价格突然大跌。
当年7月，泰国中央银行在无奈之下宣布放弃实施了14年泰铢与美元挂钩的汇率机制，改由市场浮动决定汇率，泰铢对美元的汇率随即大幅下跌，由泰铢贬值为序幕的金融风暴迅速席卷东南亚各国。
亚洲各国从中得到了教训，也学到了功课，那场金融危机的中心地带——泰国，最近开始行动了，泰国政府本月初意外宣布对外资投资当地债券征收15％的收益税。
香港也推出一揽子管制措施，防止楼市出现泡沫化；新加坡也通过扩大新元汇率波动区间来应付通胀。而在那场金融危机中差点经济崩溃的韩国政府也表示准备采取相应行动，在韩元汇率出现激烈波动时干预汇市，以及取消对外资购买本国债券时的税务宽免。
当主要经济体采取新一轮量化宽松政策立场，亚洲等新兴经济体面对的是两难局面：一方面必须采取新的货币政策抵抗本币升值，同时又担心热钱大量流入会破坏各自的经济稳定。
如果亚洲国家采取极端的政策来阻挡热钱的流入，也会导致资金大量外逃，这样也会对经济的稳定发展产生冲击。
世界银行和国际货币基金组织也看到了热钱涌入所产生资产价格和通胀上涨的危险，世界银行呼吁亚洲各国采取预防措施，避免亚洲金融风暴重演；而国际货币基金组织也改变一向来反对管制资本的态度，要亚洲国家实行资本管制以阻止另一轮金融危机的降临。
美联储局即将启动第二轮量化宽松政策，美元会持续下跌，亚洲等新兴经济体的货币汇率升势不会停下来，干预汇率的作用不仅有限，而且还会提高全球的流动性，可说是采取什么行动都有困难，甚至白费心机。就像中国央行最近选择突然加息，给热钱流进中国带来无限诱惑，中国此时加息不仅需要勇气，还需要承担很大的风险。
我们更应该担心的是，这一轮全球金融危机后亚洲股市的升势，比90年代亚洲金融风暴后更强更猛，它反映出这回热钱的流窜性更大。
改变美元跌势 不是美国财长说了算
美国财政部长盖特纳数天前接受《华尔街日报》访问时暗示“美元已无需再贬值”，还强调美国无意实施让美元贬值的政策，我们不能因盖特纳的这个暗示之语，就乐观地认为在首尔举行的会议上，20国集团财长和央行行长会达成一致的汇率政策准则，要改变美元的跌势，不是盖特纳说了算。
但全球货币战风雨欲来，大家确实对G20会议有许多的情景推测，唯一可以肯定的是，各国财经首长正在努力化解分歧，希望争取达成共识降低爆发汇率战的可能性，因为在这场战争中，大家的代价都会很大。
现在不只是美国在印钞票，英国也在静悄悄地印钞票，日本也是。当美英日大开资金闸门救经济时，热钱持续在亚洲乱窜，亚洲股市出现不同程度的涨幅，房地产价格压不下来，通货膨胀走高。如果最后美国经济还是救不起来，美国联邦储备局会继续印钞票，热钱也会继续流入亚洲，可能导致亚洲金融危机的历史重演。
热钱的规模过大，要通过征税、放慢资本流入等方式来管制、对抗和阻止都不是长久之计。根据估计，目前每天有20亿美元热钱流入亚太市场，最终热钱的规模可能高达5200亿美元。
情况与1997年不同
亚洲货币面临较大的升值压力，其中一个原因是亚洲如今已成为全球经济增长最快速的地区，当前的情况和1997年亚洲金融风暴时不一样，当年全球热钱涌入亚洲，导致楼市和股市泡沫化，当资金突然大量撤走时，危机就产生了，资产价格突然大跌。
当年7月，泰国中央银行在无奈之下宣布放弃实施了14年泰铢与美元挂钩的汇率机制，改由市场浮动决定汇率，泰铢对美元的汇率随即大幅下跌，由泰铢贬值为序幕的金融风暴迅速席卷东南亚各国。
亚洲各国从中得到了教训，也学到了功课，那场金融危机的中心地带——泰国，最近开始行动了，泰国政府本月初意外宣布对外资投资当地债券征收15％的收益税。
香港也推出一揽子管制措施，防止楼市出现泡沫化；新加坡也通过扩大新元汇率波动区间来应付通胀。而在那场金融危机中差点经济崩溃的韩国政府也表示准备采取相应行动，在韩元汇率出现激烈波动时干预汇市，以及取消对外资购买本国债券时的税务宽免。
当主要经济体采取新一轮量化宽松政策立场，亚洲等新兴经济体面对的是两难局面：一方面必须采取新的货币政策抵抗本币升值，同时又担心热钱大量流入会破坏各自的经济稳定。
如果亚洲国家采取极端的政策来阻挡热钱的流入，也会导致资金大量外逃，这样也会对经济的稳定发展产生冲击。
世界银行和国际货币基金组织也看到了热钱涌入所产生资产价格和通胀上涨的危险，世界银行呼吁亚洲各国采取预防措施，避免亚洲金融风暴重演；而国际货币基金组织也改变一向来反对管制资本的态度，要亚洲国家实行资本管制以阻止另一轮金融危机的降临。
美联储局即将启动第二轮量化宽松政策，美元会持续下跌，亚洲等新兴经济体的货币汇率升势不会停下来，干预汇率的作用不仅有限，而且还会提高全球的流动性，可说是采取什么行动都有困难，甚至白费心机。就像中国央行最近选择突然加息，给热钱流进中国带来无限诱惑，中国此时加息不仅需要勇气，还需要承担很大的风险。
我们更应该担心的是，这一轮全球金融危机后亚洲股市的升势，比90年代亚洲金融风暴后更强更猛，它反映出这回热钱的流窜性更大。
改变美元跌势 不是美国财长说了算
美国财政部长盖特纳数天前接受《华尔街日报》访问时暗示“美元已无需再贬值”，还强调美国无意实施让美元贬值的政策，我们不能因盖特纳的这个暗示之语，就乐观地认为在首尔举行的会议上，20国集团财长和央行行长会达成一致的汇率政策准则，要改变美元的跌势，不是盖特纳说了算。
但全球货币战风雨欲来，大家确实对G20会议有许多的情景推测，唯一可以肯定的是，各国财经首长正在努力化解分歧，希望争取达成共识降低爆发汇率战的可能性，因为在这场战争中，大家的代价都会很大。
Morgan Stanley says equities are "crazy cheap"
Global stocks are in the middle of a multi-year bull market that began in March 2009 and will last for at least two more years, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney's investment strategists said on Wednesday. "One of the great investment decisions someone could make today is to be invested in the equity markets, especially in the emerging markets," said Charles Reinhard, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney's global investment strategist at a press briefing on the the firm's 2011 outlook. The S&P 500 Index of large U.S. stocks has gained 79 percent since bottoming in March 2009, but Reinhard said there are still plenty of opportunities for investors. Company profits have grown by about 30 percent this year, and stock prices are "crazy cheap" relative to bonds and cash, he said. "There are great big companies trading like Rembrandts lying on the driveway in a tag sale," added David Darst, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney's Chief Investment Strategist. Investors in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis have poured into the safety of bonds33 and cash, driving yields to paper thin levels.
Meanwhile, economic worries and the May 6 "flash crash" has prompted investors to abandon U.S. stock funds. Morgan Stanley has been positive about stocks since April 2009 and continues to recommend greater exposure to these "risk assets." Reinhard advised investors to look at U.S. companies with exposure to emerging markets such as China. He pointed to the huge projected growth in the middle class in emerging markets and, as a consequence, rapid growth in demand for goods and services such as travel, fashion and food.
There have historically been two "friendly" periods to invest in equities, and investors are currently experiencing both, said Reinhard. One is the period between when the stocks bottom out and when the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy. The second is the period after U.S. mid-term elections. For the past 15 mid-term elections, the stock market has risen an average of 25 percent between the Sept. 30 before voting and Sept. 30 one year afterward, said Reinhard. "Markets don't like uncertainty and (after elections) some of the bad scenarios fall by the wayside," he said. Reinhard also does not see evidence of any of the conditions that usually kill off bull markets, such as a clear and immediate danger of inflation, irrational exuberance among investors, a looming recession that would hurt profits or overpriced stocks. "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of assassins," said Reinhard.
Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Jeff Applegate, who kicked off the outlook session, said there is a greater likelihood of a shrinking U.S.federal budget deficit following Republican party gains in last week's mid-term elections. A U.S. presidential commission on Dec. 1 is expected to issue a report on reducing the federal budget deficit. Applegate said the report could provide President Barack Obama ammunition for some unpopular moves, such as raising the retirement age and paring back entitlements. That's important, he said, because public equity valuations tend to rise when public sector debt falls relative to economic output. "I don't think the market has factored that in yet," Applegate said. The next Congress also is more likely to promote free trade and extend the Bush tax cuts, both positive for the U.S. economy, he said.
Meanwhile, economic worries and the May 6 "flash crash" has prompted investors to abandon U.S. stock funds. Morgan Stanley has been positive about stocks since April 2009 and continues to recommend greater exposure to these "risk assets." Reinhard advised investors to look at U.S. companies with exposure to emerging markets such as China. He pointed to the huge projected growth in the middle class in emerging markets and, as a consequence, rapid growth in demand for goods and services such as travel, fashion and food.
There have historically been two "friendly" periods to invest in equities, and investors are currently experiencing both, said Reinhard. One is the period between when the stocks bottom out and when the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy. The second is the period after U.S. mid-term elections. For the past 15 mid-term elections, the stock market has risen an average of 25 percent between the Sept. 30 before voting and Sept. 30 one year afterward, said Reinhard. "Markets don't like uncertainty and (after elections) some of the bad scenarios fall by the wayside," he said. Reinhard also does not see evidence of any of the conditions that usually kill off bull markets, such as a clear and immediate danger of inflation, irrational exuberance among investors, a looming recession that would hurt profits or overpriced stocks. "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of assassins," said Reinhard.
Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Jeff Applegate, who kicked off the outlook session, said there is a greater likelihood of a shrinking U.S.federal budget deficit following Republican party gains in last week's mid-term elections. A U.S. presidential commission on Dec. 1 is expected to issue a report on reducing the federal budget deficit. Applegate said the report could provide President Barack Obama ammunition for some unpopular moves, such as raising the retirement age and paring back entitlements. That's important, he said, because public equity valuations tend to rise when public sector debt falls relative to economic output. "I don't think the market has factored that in yet," Applegate said. The next Congress also is more likely to promote free trade and extend the Bush tax cuts, both positive for the U.S. economy, he said.
美国狂印钞票，关我们什么事?
最近，无论在平面媒体或电子媒体上，“量化宽松”（quantitative easing） 这个词频繁出现。什么是“量化宽松”？对一般人来说，这只是个令人看得一头雾水的词。
简单说，量化宽松其实就是印钞票的意思，它的学名叫做“量化宽松货币政策”，俗名叫“印钞票”。
谁在印钞票？当然不是新加坡。这是美国为了救市，却苦于没有钱，只好发公债，然而公债也没什么人要买，只好自己印钞票自己买。
美国果然是印钞机，要多少钱就印多少。这也就是美联储日前宣布，到2011年6月底以前，将购买6000亿美元美国长期国债，以进一步刺激经济，化解通货紧缩风险。而经济学家将美联储这一举动称为第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）。
或许有人会问：美国狂印钞票，关我们什么事？当然有切身关系——从大人物到小人物，从白领到蓝领，从专业人士到家庭主妇，衣食住行都会深受影响，因为物价将因此进一步上涨。
这次是美联储重启量化宽松货币政策。第一次量化宽松货币政策是在雷曼兄弟于2008年9月倒闭后推出，当时美联储将其资产负债表由8800亿美元扩大至2.3万亿美元，此举稳住了金融市场，拯救了银行业，但是对就业、消费的帮助却不大。这一次，美国在就业情况不理想及面临通缩的状况下，推出第二轮量化宽松政策。
将导致全球通胀激增
毋庸置疑，美国第二轮量化宽松政策将导致全球通货膨胀激增，而在美国狂印钞票，美元不断流向全球市场，亚洲、新兴市场成为这波热钱的暂留地，股、汇、大宗商品等资产都被炒得红红火火，到头来就形成资产泡沫。所以，大家最好有个心理准备，在未来一段时间，整个金融市场会被扰乱，而且充满变数。
有专家就形容，美国这次是在“吹”史上最大的一个泡沫，而这个泡沫何时会破裂，应该不会是太久的事。有人还大胆预测：美国多印6000亿美元钞票，全球经济可能放缓20年。
亚洲、新兴经济体怎能不深受其害呢？新加坡人可能要高喊：“美国人搞出来的什么量化宽松，我们的心情可一点也不轻松啊！”
难道美国这次的举动是在“损人利己”？“损人”已经不言而喻，至于是否“利己”，则有待证明。
我们已顾不了美国这么做会不会“利己”，眼前最令人关注的是，接下来新加坡的通胀会加剧到什么程度？我们的食品价格会涨到什么程度？油价会涨多少？好不容易稳定下来的房市会不会再度升温？房价会再涨多少？不断飙涨的股市何时会崩溃？
这些担忧都是和一般小市民息息相关的。而另一个更令人担忧的问题是，新加坡的整体经济看来会受美国这次量化宽松货币政策拖累，好不容易从衰退中稳步走向复苏，并取得强劲增长的经济，很可能会被拖慢下来。
所以说，美国狂印钞票，不仅跟我们有关，而且关系很大。上个月，金管局预计，我国通胀将在今年底达到4％左右，明年上半年也会持续高通胀水平，直到明年下半年才逐渐回跌到2％。虽然政府已经尽最大的努力，通过让新元升值来缓和通胀压力，然而，现在给美国这一搞，通胀风险恐怕会加剧。由量化宽松货币政策引起的潜在高通胀风险，随时会出现。
中国央行行长要“筑池”防热钱
美国这种向全世界输入通胀的“量化宽松政策”已经引犯众怒，各国领导除了担忧，还能做什么呢？对如洪水般涌入亚洲的热钱，各经济体要如何应付？中国央行行长周小川的说法是，把短期投机资金放进一个“池子”，不让热钱任意泛滥到实体经济中。
这种“筑池防洪”之说值得探讨。我们是否也应该考虑筑个池来放热钱？但这个“池子”是股市、债市好呢，还是其他？照理说，债市的容量大，流动性好，而且交易主体是银行，资金势力雄厚，有能力应付市场波动的冲击。然而，所有热钱流向债市也不是好事。
至于股市，如果热钱的巨额资金投入股市，必然带来股市大起大落，对金融市场及一般股民不利。而握有美元的市民，买金、买银都好，就是别眼睁睁看着它们一天天贬值。
对于本地投资者来说，此时无疑是投资良机，如今股价涨、油价涨、金价涨、银价涨......涨声一片，全民弥漫在歌舞升平的气氛中，在泡沫未爆破之前，还是值得庆祝的。但不得不提醒投资者，要量力而为及小心管理风险，以免一旦泡沫爆破，资产价急挫，将重演九七、九八年亚洲金融风暴后的惨况。当时的黑暗日子，相信许多市民余悸犹存。
股价或许可以任意炒，房价可不能炒，否则到时可能要上演“美国重启印钞机，我们重启灭火器”的戏码了。
简单说，量化宽松其实就是印钞票的意思，它的学名叫做“量化宽松货币政策”，俗名叫“印钞票”。
谁在印钞票？当然不是新加坡。这是美国为了救市，却苦于没有钱，只好发公债，然而公债也没什么人要买，只好自己印钞票自己买。
美国果然是印钞机，要多少钱就印多少。这也就是美联储日前宣布，到2011年6月底以前，将购买6000亿美元美国长期国债，以进一步刺激经济，化解通货紧缩风险。而经济学家将美联储这一举动称为第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）。
或许有人会问：美国狂印钞票，关我们什么事？当然有切身关系——从大人物到小人物，从白领到蓝领，从专业人士到家庭主妇，衣食住行都会深受影响，因为物价将因此进一步上涨。
这次是美联储重启量化宽松货币政策。第一次量化宽松货币政策是在雷曼兄弟于2008年9月倒闭后推出，当时美联储将其资产负债表由8800亿美元扩大至2.3万亿美元，此举稳住了金融市场，拯救了银行业，但是对就业、消费的帮助却不大。这一次，美国在就业情况不理想及面临通缩的状况下，推出第二轮量化宽松政策。
将导致全球通胀激增
毋庸置疑，美国第二轮量化宽松政策将导致全球通货膨胀激增，而在美国狂印钞票，美元不断流向全球市场，亚洲、新兴市场成为这波热钱的暂留地，股、汇、大宗商品等资产都被炒得红红火火，到头来就形成资产泡沫。所以，大家最好有个心理准备，在未来一段时间，整个金融市场会被扰乱，而且充满变数。
有专家就形容，美国这次是在“吹”史上最大的一个泡沫，而这个泡沫何时会破裂，应该不会是太久的事。有人还大胆预测：美国多印6000亿美元钞票，全球经济可能放缓20年。
亚洲、新兴经济体怎能不深受其害呢？新加坡人可能要高喊：“美国人搞出来的什么量化宽松，我们的心情可一点也不轻松啊！”
难道美国这次的举动是在“损人利己”？“损人”已经不言而喻，至于是否“利己”，则有待证明。
我们已顾不了美国这么做会不会“利己”，眼前最令人关注的是，接下来新加坡的通胀会加剧到什么程度？我们的食品价格会涨到什么程度？油价会涨多少？好不容易稳定下来的房市会不会再度升温？房价会再涨多少？不断飙涨的股市何时会崩溃？
这些担忧都是和一般小市民息息相关的。而另一个更令人担忧的问题是，新加坡的整体经济看来会受美国这次量化宽松货币政策拖累，好不容易从衰退中稳步走向复苏，并取得强劲增长的经济，很可能会被拖慢下来。
所以说，美国狂印钞票，不仅跟我们有关，而且关系很大。上个月，金管局预计，我国通胀将在今年底达到4％左右，明年上半年也会持续高通胀水平，直到明年下半年才逐渐回跌到2％。虽然政府已经尽最大的努力，通过让新元升值来缓和通胀压力，然而，现在给美国这一搞，通胀风险恐怕会加剧。由量化宽松货币政策引起的潜在高通胀风险，随时会出现。
中国央行行长要“筑池”防热钱
美国这种向全世界输入通胀的“量化宽松政策”已经引犯众怒，各国领导除了担忧，还能做什么呢？对如洪水般涌入亚洲的热钱，各经济体要如何应付？中国央行行长周小川的说法是，把短期投机资金放进一个“池子”，不让热钱任意泛滥到实体经济中。
这种“筑池防洪”之说值得探讨。我们是否也应该考虑筑个池来放热钱？但这个“池子”是股市、债市好呢，还是其他？照理说，债市的容量大，流动性好，而且交易主体是银行，资金势力雄厚，有能力应付市场波动的冲击。然而，所有热钱流向债市也不是好事。
至于股市，如果热钱的巨额资金投入股市，必然带来股市大起大落，对金融市场及一般股民不利。而握有美元的市民，买金、买银都好，就是别眼睁睁看着它们一天天贬值。
对于本地投资者来说，此时无疑是投资良机，如今股价涨、油价涨、金价涨、银价涨......涨声一片，全民弥漫在歌舞升平的气氛中，在泡沫未爆破之前，还是值得庆祝的。但不得不提醒投资者，要量力而为及小心管理风险，以免一旦泡沫爆破，资产价急挫，将重演九七、九八年亚洲金融风暴后的惨况。当时的黑暗日子，相信许多市民余悸犹存。
股价或许可以任意炒，房价可不能炒，否则到时可能要上演“美国重启印钞机，我们重启灭火器”的戏码了。
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