自从2001年奔赴美国后，步步高董事长段永平就将自己的工作重心从实业转到了投资上。在他近十年的投资生涯中，有过一年盈利数十倍的成功经验，也有遭遇“滑铁卢”的案例。曾经两次和巴菲特共进午餐的他认为，价值投资还是投资中的“王道”，而认为这种方式不适合中国的人，被其断言为“不懂得投资”。
价值投资的东西适合任何地方
段永平认为，全世界的人进行投资其实都是出于同一个理由，那就是在足够长的时间内，其投资的标的终将体现自身的价值，而没有价值的东西，在他看来是不可能永远卖出价钱的。
“其实百分之八十几的人在股市上都是亏钱的，不管是牛市还是熊市，而且大多数人都是不听、不学的，”段永平表示，“像巴菲特这样2009年收益率低于大市，不是第一次，我相信也不会是最后一次，要看他活多久。”
段永平表示，每一次遇到大的危机的时候，巴菲特都有可能在某一个阶段落后于大市，或者会犯一些错误，这时有很多人会质疑巴菲特的能力，但到最后，还是都承认巴菲特的眼光，因为他做的事情没有任何逻辑上的错误。
对此，段永平举例道：“比如说一个10块钱的东西，到5块钱的时候他巴菲特可能就会买，掉到1块钱的时候看到他是亏的，等回到10块钱的时候，你会发现他还是对的。”
段永平认为，国内其实有很多挺好的价值投资者，他们不需要自己的建议。如果把时间放长到三十年甚至四十年，人们会发现赚钱的有一半以上都会是这种遵循价值投资的人。
投资GE盈利过亿美元，自称“不是跟风巴菲特”
近期，段永平对GE的投资备受市场的关注。当巴菲特在2008年以超过20美元的价格买入30亿美元GE永久性优先股之后，GE的股价最低跌至2009年一季度的6美元以下。在GE股价触底时，段永平也出手购买了GE的股票，据其自己承认金额超过1亿美元。而此后，GE的股价回升到16美元上方，其投资获得过倍收益。但段永平不认为自己此举是跟风巴菲特。
“投资从我的角度来讲，其实不是特别受大市的影响，就是你觉得便宜的时候就买。‘便宜’与否可能结果短期内会受大市的影响，但是长期来讲，大市对一个公司的影响不是根本性的，只能决定你短期盈利的多少，”段永平解释道，“其实我对GE的了解已经很多年了，当它掉到很低的时候，我觉得这个价格比较离谱了，当然，也有人说它可能会更低，但是我说反正这个价格已经够便宜了，我就买吧，如果它再更低的话，如果我有钱就再买喽，所以也没有什么好说的。”
段永平表示，巴菲特做的事情对他的决定做了一个佐证，因为巴菲特的举动说明他也认为不会倒闭，投资早晚会回来。这和段永平的判断是一致的，无非就是“多了一个自己比较尊重、比较相信的人提供一个佐证，还是有一点作用的。”
和巴菲特午餐的启示
段永平曾经两次重金拍得和巴菲特午餐的机会，他认为这样的两顿午餐使自己获益匪浅。
据段永平透露，他和巴菲特会面时主要特别想问的就是做投资什么东西是不能做的；哪些错误是不能犯的；尤其比较关心巴菲特自己是怎么犯错误的。对此，巴菲特教给他一些个人的经验，比如不要做不懂的东西，不要做空，不要借钱等等。
段永平简介
段永平，1961年3月10日出生，毕业于浙江大学。曾以创立“小霸王”和“步步高”两个知名品牌而闻名全国。2001年，段永平赴美开始投资生涯，现任步步高集团董事长。段永平于2006年和2009年先后向浙江大学捐资3000万美元和人民币7600791元，2010年向中国人民大学捐赠3000万美元，支持教育事业。
段永平投资案例：2001年底，段永平开始以1美元左右“吃”进网易股。2003年10月14日，网易股飙升到70美元，段永平持有的股票在一年多里涨了五十倍以上。2003年，“福布斯富豪榜”对段永平的财富估价是10亿元，排第71位。2009年，其以3亿元的身价排在第340位。
Friday, April 9, 2010
对股指期货要冷静、冷静再冷静
4月8日下午3时30分，股指期货上市启动仪式将在中国金融期货交易所举行。4月16日，沪深300股指期货首批四个合约也将迎来首个交易日。
推出股指期货，说明中国坚决地向美式金融市场迈进了一大步。从长期来看，股指期货开启中国资本市场的多空对决的新时代，从短期来看，股指期货的推出会加剧市场的非理性表现，使政策对于市场的干预越来越深，中国证券市场可能成为非理性市与政策市的叠加。
对于股指期货应该保持足够的冷静，不必寄予过高的期盼，也不必给予过高的评价。股指期货既不能减少市场的内幕交易，也不能减少投资者的非理性交易，更不能使中国证券市场的新股发行与退市机制更为合理。实际上，股指期货是外用药，并非针对中国证券市场的精准外科手术。
股指期货会加剧市场波动。
任何一种金融衍生品并非天生具有平抑市场波动、价格发现等功能。据统计，全球股指合约70%以上是投机合约，10%左右是套利，剩下的才是套保。说明在期货零和市场中，大家博弈的是对手方的错误，而不是价格重新回到理性轨道。以商品期货市场为例，铝、螺纹钢等库存堆山填海，价格照样节节攀升，供求关系退居其次，大家博弈的是央行的货币政策究竟是宽松还是紧缩。正因为金融衍生品市场的杠杆作用与非理性，股指期货的新规才慎之又慎。
中金所层层设卡，绕卡而过者仍然络绎不绝。据报载，一些私募已经陆续开通股指期货帐户。虽然有规定，股指期货的单个帐户最大持仓不得超过100手，但上有政策，下有对策，一些私募以个人名义开上百个帐户并非难事。这与笔者听到的情况吻合，私募基金大多不愿放弃利用杠杆单边做多、做空与T+0交易的机会。打个不恰当的比方，股指期货是大赌棍上的赌桌，满足了大资金所需，而普通投资者只能在二级市场进行现货交易。截至4月6日，股指期货的开户数量达到了4300户左右，开户数量呈现明显的增加态势，今后还会上升。5000个开户数已经足够，我国的大宗商品期货市场，主要做市者就那么几家，照样做得风声水起。
股指期货有杠杆作用。12%仅是最低的保证金比例，交易所有权对此进行调整。再次调整的结果是，沪深300股指期货合约近月和次月合约比例为15%，远月合约为18%，如果考虑期货公司还会再加点，客户保证金比例最终可能达到18%-20%，也就是说大致为5倍左右的杠杆比例。50万的资金，如果是15%的保证金比例可以做三手，20%的保证金可以做两手。现在的沪深300指数在3300点左右，按规定1点300元，沪深指数涨跌100点完全在私募基金可以承受的范围之内，可以通过上午做空、下午做多等办法，来回赚取点位。
在一个不能完全做空、没有真正意义上多空基金、杠杆比例不能达到10倍以上的市场，进行套保赚取微小的差价得不偿失，除了上交手续费之外，没有其他好处。所谓套保套利等，不过是为即将推出的股指期货绣上一层金边。
从笔者了解到的情况来看，大部分会进行单边的多空赌搏，而不愿意进行套利或者套保。一个很简单的办法是，大资金进行杠杆卖空20%的股指期货，而后买入70%或者80%上涨势头良好的中小盘股，甚至直接申购新股。这是最简单的对冲办法，在货币流动性还算充裕的情况下，大盘指数下行，中小盘股上涨机会居多。
此处的监管关键是能否看住股指期货的帐户资金。大宗商品期货市场可以通过银证通等方式自由地来回腾挪资金，一个打新股、有充足资金的股指期货投资者是否会受到同样优待，避开监管，将股指期货帐户中的资金拿来进行现货投资？极有可能。
对于参加股指期货的大资金来说，最大的风险是政策风险。比如，由于股指上涨过快，监管层加快了大盘新股发行的节奏，或者加快了再融资的步伐，或者社保基金做多而不允许指数点位大幅下跌。此时参与股指期货的民间资金会叫天天不灵，叫地地不应。去年中国大宗商品的收储，直接改变了金属期货市场的走向，使做空者全军覆没，就是前车之鉴。
股指期货显示中国金融衍生品市场雏形已成，其走向取决于中国现阶段的金融技术手段、监管力度与政策参与力度。预计在出台之初，会呈现非理性状态，交易活跃度不会成为问题。由于中国信用体系不佳，由于社保基金等大型金融机构必定与民争利，因此，到后期市场参与度可能大幅下降，成为半死不活的市场。
对股指期货大唱赞歌，或极端悲观都无必要，事实上，现阶段任何的金融品都会在政策的指导下，在狭小的空间内寻找最大的溢价空间，体现出最大的非理性。创业板、风险投资等等，莫不如此。
推出股指期货，说明中国坚决地向美式金融市场迈进了一大步。从长期来看，股指期货开启中国资本市场的多空对决的新时代，从短期来看，股指期货的推出会加剧市场的非理性表现，使政策对于市场的干预越来越深，中国证券市场可能成为非理性市与政策市的叠加。
对于股指期货应该保持足够的冷静，不必寄予过高的期盼，也不必给予过高的评价。股指期货既不能减少市场的内幕交易，也不能减少投资者的非理性交易，更不能使中国证券市场的新股发行与退市机制更为合理。实际上，股指期货是外用药，并非针对中国证券市场的精准外科手术。
股指期货会加剧市场波动。
任何一种金融衍生品并非天生具有平抑市场波动、价格发现等功能。据统计，全球股指合约70%以上是投机合约，10%左右是套利，剩下的才是套保。说明在期货零和市场中，大家博弈的是对手方的错误，而不是价格重新回到理性轨道。以商品期货市场为例，铝、螺纹钢等库存堆山填海，价格照样节节攀升，供求关系退居其次，大家博弈的是央行的货币政策究竟是宽松还是紧缩。正因为金融衍生品市场的杠杆作用与非理性，股指期货的新规才慎之又慎。
中金所层层设卡，绕卡而过者仍然络绎不绝。据报载，一些私募已经陆续开通股指期货帐户。虽然有规定，股指期货的单个帐户最大持仓不得超过100手，但上有政策，下有对策，一些私募以个人名义开上百个帐户并非难事。这与笔者听到的情况吻合，私募基金大多不愿放弃利用杠杆单边做多、做空与T+0交易的机会。打个不恰当的比方，股指期货是大赌棍上的赌桌，满足了大资金所需，而普通投资者只能在二级市场进行现货交易。截至4月6日，股指期货的开户数量达到了4300户左右，开户数量呈现明显的增加态势，今后还会上升。5000个开户数已经足够，我国的大宗商品期货市场，主要做市者就那么几家，照样做得风声水起。
股指期货有杠杆作用。12%仅是最低的保证金比例，交易所有权对此进行调整。再次调整的结果是，沪深300股指期货合约近月和次月合约比例为15%，远月合约为18%，如果考虑期货公司还会再加点，客户保证金比例最终可能达到18%-20%，也就是说大致为5倍左右的杠杆比例。50万的资金，如果是15%的保证金比例可以做三手，20%的保证金可以做两手。现在的沪深300指数在3300点左右，按规定1点300元，沪深指数涨跌100点完全在私募基金可以承受的范围之内，可以通过上午做空、下午做多等办法，来回赚取点位。
在一个不能完全做空、没有真正意义上多空基金、杠杆比例不能达到10倍以上的市场，进行套保赚取微小的差价得不偿失，除了上交手续费之外，没有其他好处。所谓套保套利等，不过是为即将推出的股指期货绣上一层金边。
从笔者了解到的情况来看，大部分会进行单边的多空赌搏，而不愿意进行套利或者套保。一个很简单的办法是，大资金进行杠杆卖空20%的股指期货，而后买入70%或者80%上涨势头良好的中小盘股，甚至直接申购新股。这是最简单的对冲办法，在货币流动性还算充裕的情况下，大盘指数下行，中小盘股上涨机会居多。
此处的监管关键是能否看住股指期货的帐户资金。大宗商品期货市场可以通过银证通等方式自由地来回腾挪资金，一个打新股、有充足资金的股指期货投资者是否会受到同样优待，避开监管，将股指期货帐户中的资金拿来进行现货投资？极有可能。
对于参加股指期货的大资金来说，最大的风险是政策风险。比如，由于股指上涨过快，监管层加快了大盘新股发行的节奏，或者加快了再融资的步伐，或者社保基金做多而不允许指数点位大幅下跌。此时参与股指期货的民间资金会叫天天不灵，叫地地不应。去年中国大宗商品的收储，直接改变了金属期货市场的走向，使做空者全军覆没，就是前车之鉴。
股指期货显示中国金融衍生品市场雏形已成，其走向取决于中国现阶段的金融技术手段、监管力度与政策参与力度。预计在出台之初，会呈现非理性状态，交易活跃度不会成为问题。由于中国信用体系不佳，由于社保基金等大型金融机构必定与民争利，因此，到后期市场参与度可能大幅下降，成为半死不活的市场。
对股指期货大唱赞歌，或极端悲观都无必要，事实上，现阶段任何的金融品都会在政策的指导下，在狭小的空间内寻找最大的溢价空间，体现出最大的非理性。创业板、风险投资等等，莫不如此。
巴菲特：《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》
本文原载于1977年5月的《财富》杂志，发表文章时，巴菲特46岁。在文中，巴菲特阐述了通货膨胀对股票投资的影响。这篇文章对我们今天的投资仍然有借鉴意义。本文是我自己翻译的。
核心问题在于：股票市场的资本回报率没有随着通货膨胀而上升，而似乎是停滞在了12%
股票在通货膨胀环境下像债券一样表现不佳，这已经不是个秘密。在过去10年里，我们一直处于这种通胀环境里。确实，这是一个股票遇到麻烦的时期。但是，在这段时间里造成股票市场难题的原因仍然没有被人们完全理解。
在通胀时期债券持有者所遇到的问题一点也不神秘。当美元月复一月地贬值，一种本金和收入都用美元支付的证券不会是个大赢家。你根本不需要一个博士学位就能搞懂这个问题。
一直以来，人们认为股票是不同的。多年来，传统智慧坚持认为股票是对通货膨胀的对冲。这个说法来源于一个事实，那就是股票不像债券一样是对美元的所有权，而是对有着生产设施的公司的所有权。因此，股票投资者们相信，无论政客们如何印钞票，股票投资者仍然能保持他们投资的实际价值。
但是为什么实际上不是这么回事？主要原因在于：我认为股票在经济实质上非常类似于债券。
我知道我的主张对很多投资者来说显得古怪。他们马上就观察到债券的回报（利息）是固定的，而股票投资的回报（盈利）会每年变化极大。这确实是事实。但是，任何研究战后公司总体回报的人都会发现一个现象：资本回报率实际上并没有变化那么多。
核心问题在于：股票市场的资本回报率没有随着通货膨胀而上升，而似乎是停滞在了12%
股票在通货膨胀环境下像债券一样表现不佳，这已经不是个秘密。在过去10年里，我们一直处于这种通胀环境里。确实，这是一个股票遇到麻烦的时期。但是，在这段时间里造成股票市场难题的原因仍然没有被人们完全理解。
在通胀时期债券持有者所遇到的问题一点也不神秘。当美元月复一月地贬值，一种本金和收入都用美元支付的证券不会是个大赢家。你根本不需要一个博士学位就能搞懂这个问题。
一直以来，人们认为股票是不同的。多年来，传统智慧坚持认为股票是对通货膨胀的对冲。这个说法来源于一个事实，那就是股票不像债券一样是对美元的所有权，而是对有着生产设施的公司的所有权。因此，股票投资者们相信，无论政客们如何印钞票，股票投资者仍然能保持他们投资的实际价值。
但是为什么实际上不是这么回事？主要原因在于：我认为股票在经济实质上非常类似于债券。
我知道我的主张对很多投资者来说显得古怪。他们马上就观察到债券的回报（利息）是固定的，而股票投资的回报（盈利）会每年变化极大。这确实是事实。但是，任何研究战后公司总体回报的人都会发现一个现象：资本回报率实际上并没有变化那么多。
被遗忘的2008年的教训(塞思•卡拉曼)
塞思•卡拉曼（Seth Klarman）,Baupost基金公司总裁。Baupost集团成立于1983年,该基金从建立到2008年12月31日的26年来的年均收益率为16.5%,考虑到因为金融危机导致的市场指数回落,这个成绩是极为杰出的,同期的标准普尔500指数收益率为10.1%。在被称为“失去的十年”的1998年到2008年,Baupost基金的收益率为15.9%,而同期的标准普尔500指数收益率为1.4%。
投资理念和风格
卡拉曼投资于广泛的领域,从传统的价值型股票到很深奥难懂的投资,比如不良债务、公司破产清算资产、外国股票或债券等。有时,卡拉曼不介意“什么也不做”。当投资机会缺乏的时候,他可以完全泰然自若地持有现金观望。他经常说,投资不仅仅是追求绝对回报,投资者往往太侧重于回报的数字,而漠视了产生这个数字所招致的风险。
卡拉曼的投资风格有时被认为像年轻时的巴菲特,他的投资思路有三大支柱:
1.追求绝对收益,不去理会相对表现,找到自己的优势,将其最大程度的发挥。现在基金界的“悲哀”是过于关注相对表现,大家只盯着指数,盯着同行,只要损失比其他人小就算是成功。对相对表现的过度关注,使得机构既不希望太落后,也不希望过于“冒尖”,于是中庸成为最佳策略。但富豪阶层的客户,关注的应该是绝对收益。
2.推崇自下而上选股。因为自上而下的难度太大,虽然他不能忽视宏观经济趋势,但任何人不可能每次都踏准宏观经济的节奏。他说:“我不知道有谁能非常好的长期创纪录地成功预测宏观形势。”而且即便宏观经济预测准确,落实到行业和公司又是另外一回事了。所以他们一直采取的就是自下而上的方法,侧重于每家公司的业务基本面,对每一家公司做各种情况下的敏感性分析,或者“压力测试”。
3.首先关注风险,然后才是回报。对公司进行测试带来的不同结果,使得他所认为的风险不等同于BETA,BETA值是学术问题,对投资没有意义,市场波动也不意味着其他,有时反而意味着投资机会。他们与华尔街投资不同之处就在于,对风险的关注使价值投资方法考虑在不同情景下的损失,这样得到的是一个股价区间,而华尔街的投资通过某种方法得到一个价位,很自然算出来的是回报。
他说:“最后,没有什么比让投资者晚上安然入睡更重要的事了。”
他的风险厌恶带来了一些有趣的结果。尽管Baupost是一个对冲基金,他可以被允许做任何他想做的投资,但Baupost几乎总是保持大量的现金持有量,而且没有运用借贷杠杆。在这次危机到来时,该基金近一半资产是现金,甚至在市场的底部时仍有约20％现金可以继续投资。他持有的空头头寸从来没有超过资产的1％,部分原因是放空需要了解投资者短期的心理,这与他所坚持的长期投资的风格冲突。他认为长期投资的风格也正是Baupost的一个优势所在。
价值投资显然是他的投资方法的核心,但他不太赞同价值妄求者逢低便买的做法。“我们寻求令人震惊的价格错位,这一般是由紧急事件、人们惊慌失措、或盲目的抛售引起的。” 不良债务领域发生的事情是一个很好的例子,由于破产威胁,许多债券基金被迫集体立即抛售其持有的不良债务。在这种情况下,破产过程本身也可以成为释放价值的催化剂。卡拉曼善于在这样混乱的情况下投资。
尽管资产价格总是有可能出现上涨过度,相对于趋势投资者,他卖出时的策略是在资产达到其公允价值前就将其出售。“不要依赖、迷恋上公司或其管理层。”
2008年的经验教训
作为经典教材《安全边际》的作者,卡拉曼不仅长期投资业绩遥遥领先对手,而且总是能够在最关键的时刻提出充满智慧的评论帮助投资者提高投资技能。在价值投资派别中,除了巴菲特及其致股东信,目前市场上最受投资人尊敬的人物以及最受关注的市场观点,卡拉曼一定位列其中。
我们从他最近致投资者的信中摘录了他总结的关于金融危机的20个教训,他认为这些经验教训“要么人们好像从来没有学过,要么是被大多数市场参与者很快忘记了。” 所以有必要再次强调,并提醒投资者。这些经验教训中有些是2008年市场崩盘时新产生的,有些是过去几十年我们本来可以认识到的。
1.以前从未发生过的事情一定会伴随着一些规律而发生。你必须时刻准备市场中意外的发生,包括股票市场和经济体突然的急剧下降波动。无论你预期情况如何不利,现实可能只会更糟。
2.当过度宽松的信贷环境普及和持续一段时间后,人们会被带入虚假的安全感中,这会造成一个更加危险的局面。这些过度投机将最终结束,引发至少和其成比例的危机。当杠杆迅速降下来时,资产类别之间的相关性可能会高得惊人。
3.投资者并不是应该努力使每一个美元取得潜在利润,对风险的考虑永远应在收益的前面。保持保守的仓位在遇到危机时是至关重要的:它使人们能够保持以长期为导向,思路清晰,集中发现新的投资机会,而其他人可能甚至被迫出售自身资产。投资组合风险对冲必须建立在危机发生前。人们不能在危机期间有把握地增加或者替换对冲资产。
4.风险并不是投资与生俱来的特征,它总是相对于投入支出的价格来讲的。不确定性和风险不相同。例如在2008年秋季,当巨大的不确定性驱动证券跌到很低的价格时,它们常常成为风险较小的投资。
5.不要相信金融市场风险模型。现实总是太复杂而无法准确建模。对风险的关注必须是全天候的,与人而不是电脑一起评估或重新评估实时的风险环境。尽管一些分析人士偏爱复杂的数学模式,但市场是门行为科学,而不是物理科学。
6.将短期资金投资时,不要接触到过大的风险:贪婪地去努力赢得一些额外的收益率基点,必然导致面临更大的风险,这会增加损失的可能,导致当要支付费用、兑现承诺或者作出杰出的长期投资时面临严重的流动性困境。
7.证券的最新交易价格制造了一个危险的假象,就是人们会认为它的市场价格接近于其真正价值。这在市场繁荣时期尤其的危险。市场价值的观念作为公司业务的正常价值锚,可能在沸腾的年代被极大地扭曲了,我们应该总是对其持有一定程度的怀疑。
8.广泛而灵活的投资方式在危机期间是必不可少的。机会是广泛又短暂地分散存在于各行业和市场中。投资范围刚性在这种时候会是巨大的劣势。
9.你必须在市场下跌过程中购买。在下跌过程中比在回升上涨过程有更多的容量,而且有更少的购买者相竞争。早点总比晚些好,但是你必须对价格的继续下降做好准备。
10.金融创新可以变得十分危险,但几乎没有人会告诉你这一点。新的金融产品通常是为阳光明媚的天气准备的,几乎从来没有接受过暴风雨的压力考验。资产证券化市场几乎完全符合此描述的一个领域,如次级抵押贷款市场在2008年彻底崩溃,直到现在它也没有完全康复。具有讽刺意味的是,政府现在迫切希望证券化市场恢复到其崩溃前的地位。
11.评级机构是有着自身冲突的,无趣且容易被愚弄的。他们只是傻乐着,不去注意逆向选择和道德风险问题。投资者不应该信任他们。
12.要确保你能弥补流动资金不足,特别是不被控制的流动性不足,因为它会带来很高的机会成本。
13.在相等的回报下,公共投资一般优于私人投资,这不仅因为他们有更强的流动性,而且因为在处于困境中时,公共市场比私人市场更有可能提供以低于平均价格买进的有吸引力的机会。
14.提防各种形式的杠杆。借款人不管是个人、公司或政府,必须要将他们的债务和自身的资产相匹配。借款人必须永远记住,资本市场是变化无常的,而且借助贷款到期可以结转的假设,是永远不会安全的。即使你不用杠杆,别人用的杠杆也可以驱动戏剧性的价格和价值波动,对经济体来说,杠杆的突然不可用可能会引发经济衰退。
15.许多杠杆收购是人为的灾害。当付出的代价过大时,一个杠杆收购的股权比例实在是一个地地道道的蚀价看涨期权。
16.金融类股有独特的风险。尤其是银行业,这是一个极具竞争性和挑战性的业务领域。欧洲的一家大型银行最近公布其在几年内实现20％的股本回报率（ROE）的目标。不幸的是,净资产收益率高度依赖于银行的绝对收益率,利息差,保持充足的贷款损失准备金,以及杠杆使用量。如果不能轻易达到20%的收益,银行要怎样做呢？增加杠杆吗？持有风险较高的资产？忽略损失的风险？在某些方面来看,一个主要的金融机构有净资产收益率目标是要惹祸的。
17.拥有有着长期定位的客户是至关重要的。对于一个投资公司的成功,没有比保持投资的稳定更重要的了。
18.当一个政府官员说,问题已被“控制”时,不要听信。
19.政府作为最终短期导向的角色,不会忍受经济或金融市场上的痛苦。救助和救援都可能发生,虽然对此投资者没有足够的预测性,不能舒服地有机可乘。政府将采取的这种干预具有巨大的风险,特别是当开支可以很方便地推迟到未来时。有些价格标签是以承诺保障的,其费用几乎是无法确定的。
20.几乎没有人会愿意承担他或她在一场危机中的责任:不是杠杆投机者,不是金融机构的视而不见领导层,当然也不是监管机构、政府官员、评级机构或政客。
总之,了解而且有效地践行从投资中得来的经验教训,需要一个有纪律、常常反省、以长期为导向的投资方法。它需要坚决以规避风险为重点,而不是寻求暂时回报的最大化,对金融市场周期性的认识,以及有时要非凡的耐心。
投资理念和风格
卡拉曼投资于广泛的领域,从传统的价值型股票到很深奥难懂的投资,比如不良债务、公司破产清算资产、外国股票或债券等。有时,卡拉曼不介意“什么也不做”。当投资机会缺乏的时候,他可以完全泰然自若地持有现金观望。他经常说,投资不仅仅是追求绝对回报,投资者往往太侧重于回报的数字,而漠视了产生这个数字所招致的风险。
卡拉曼的投资风格有时被认为像年轻时的巴菲特,他的投资思路有三大支柱:
1.追求绝对收益,不去理会相对表现,找到自己的优势,将其最大程度的发挥。现在基金界的“悲哀”是过于关注相对表现,大家只盯着指数,盯着同行,只要损失比其他人小就算是成功。对相对表现的过度关注,使得机构既不希望太落后,也不希望过于“冒尖”,于是中庸成为最佳策略。但富豪阶层的客户,关注的应该是绝对收益。
2.推崇自下而上选股。因为自上而下的难度太大,虽然他不能忽视宏观经济趋势,但任何人不可能每次都踏准宏观经济的节奏。他说:“我不知道有谁能非常好的长期创纪录地成功预测宏观形势。”而且即便宏观经济预测准确,落实到行业和公司又是另外一回事了。所以他们一直采取的就是自下而上的方法,侧重于每家公司的业务基本面,对每一家公司做各种情况下的敏感性分析,或者“压力测试”。
3.首先关注风险,然后才是回报。对公司进行测试带来的不同结果,使得他所认为的风险不等同于BETA,BETA值是学术问题,对投资没有意义,市场波动也不意味着其他,有时反而意味着投资机会。他们与华尔街投资不同之处就在于,对风险的关注使价值投资方法考虑在不同情景下的损失,这样得到的是一个股价区间,而华尔街的投资通过某种方法得到一个价位,很自然算出来的是回报。
他说:“最后,没有什么比让投资者晚上安然入睡更重要的事了。”
他的风险厌恶带来了一些有趣的结果。尽管Baupost是一个对冲基金,他可以被允许做任何他想做的投资,但Baupost几乎总是保持大量的现金持有量,而且没有运用借贷杠杆。在这次危机到来时,该基金近一半资产是现金,甚至在市场的底部时仍有约20％现金可以继续投资。他持有的空头头寸从来没有超过资产的1％,部分原因是放空需要了解投资者短期的心理,这与他所坚持的长期投资的风格冲突。他认为长期投资的风格也正是Baupost的一个优势所在。
价值投资显然是他的投资方法的核心,但他不太赞同价值妄求者逢低便买的做法。“我们寻求令人震惊的价格错位,这一般是由紧急事件、人们惊慌失措、或盲目的抛售引起的。” 不良债务领域发生的事情是一个很好的例子,由于破产威胁,许多债券基金被迫集体立即抛售其持有的不良债务。在这种情况下,破产过程本身也可以成为释放价值的催化剂。卡拉曼善于在这样混乱的情况下投资。
尽管资产价格总是有可能出现上涨过度,相对于趋势投资者,他卖出时的策略是在资产达到其公允价值前就将其出售。“不要依赖、迷恋上公司或其管理层。”
2008年的经验教训
作为经典教材《安全边际》的作者,卡拉曼不仅长期投资业绩遥遥领先对手,而且总是能够在最关键的时刻提出充满智慧的评论帮助投资者提高投资技能。在价值投资派别中,除了巴菲特及其致股东信,目前市场上最受投资人尊敬的人物以及最受关注的市场观点,卡拉曼一定位列其中。
我们从他最近致投资者的信中摘录了他总结的关于金融危机的20个教训,他认为这些经验教训“要么人们好像从来没有学过,要么是被大多数市场参与者很快忘记了。” 所以有必要再次强调,并提醒投资者。这些经验教训中有些是2008年市场崩盘时新产生的,有些是过去几十年我们本来可以认识到的。
1.以前从未发生过的事情一定会伴随着一些规律而发生。你必须时刻准备市场中意外的发生,包括股票市场和经济体突然的急剧下降波动。无论你预期情况如何不利,现实可能只会更糟。
2.当过度宽松的信贷环境普及和持续一段时间后,人们会被带入虚假的安全感中,这会造成一个更加危险的局面。这些过度投机将最终结束,引发至少和其成比例的危机。当杠杆迅速降下来时,资产类别之间的相关性可能会高得惊人。
3.投资者并不是应该努力使每一个美元取得潜在利润,对风险的考虑永远应在收益的前面。保持保守的仓位在遇到危机时是至关重要的:它使人们能够保持以长期为导向,思路清晰,集中发现新的投资机会,而其他人可能甚至被迫出售自身资产。投资组合风险对冲必须建立在危机发生前。人们不能在危机期间有把握地增加或者替换对冲资产。
4.风险并不是投资与生俱来的特征,它总是相对于投入支出的价格来讲的。不确定性和风险不相同。例如在2008年秋季,当巨大的不确定性驱动证券跌到很低的价格时,它们常常成为风险较小的投资。
5.不要相信金融市场风险模型。现实总是太复杂而无法准确建模。对风险的关注必须是全天候的,与人而不是电脑一起评估或重新评估实时的风险环境。尽管一些分析人士偏爱复杂的数学模式,但市场是门行为科学,而不是物理科学。
6.将短期资金投资时,不要接触到过大的风险:贪婪地去努力赢得一些额外的收益率基点,必然导致面临更大的风险,这会增加损失的可能,导致当要支付费用、兑现承诺或者作出杰出的长期投资时面临严重的流动性困境。
7.证券的最新交易价格制造了一个危险的假象,就是人们会认为它的市场价格接近于其真正价值。这在市场繁荣时期尤其的危险。市场价值的观念作为公司业务的正常价值锚,可能在沸腾的年代被极大地扭曲了,我们应该总是对其持有一定程度的怀疑。
8.广泛而灵活的投资方式在危机期间是必不可少的。机会是广泛又短暂地分散存在于各行业和市场中。投资范围刚性在这种时候会是巨大的劣势。
9.你必须在市场下跌过程中购买。在下跌过程中比在回升上涨过程有更多的容量,而且有更少的购买者相竞争。早点总比晚些好,但是你必须对价格的继续下降做好准备。
10.金融创新可以变得十分危险,但几乎没有人会告诉你这一点。新的金融产品通常是为阳光明媚的天气准备的,几乎从来没有接受过暴风雨的压力考验。资产证券化市场几乎完全符合此描述的一个领域,如次级抵押贷款市场在2008年彻底崩溃,直到现在它也没有完全康复。具有讽刺意味的是,政府现在迫切希望证券化市场恢复到其崩溃前的地位。
11.评级机构是有着自身冲突的,无趣且容易被愚弄的。他们只是傻乐着,不去注意逆向选择和道德风险问题。投资者不应该信任他们。
12.要确保你能弥补流动资金不足,特别是不被控制的流动性不足,因为它会带来很高的机会成本。
13.在相等的回报下,公共投资一般优于私人投资,这不仅因为他们有更强的流动性,而且因为在处于困境中时,公共市场比私人市场更有可能提供以低于平均价格买进的有吸引力的机会。
14.提防各种形式的杠杆。借款人不管是个人、公司或政府,必须要将他们的债务和自身的资产相匹配。借款人必须永远记住,资本市场是变化无常的,而且借助贷款到期可以结转的假设,是永远不会安全的。即使你不用杠杆,别人用的杠杆也可以驱动戏剧性的价格和价值波动,对经济体来说,杠杆的突然不可用可能会引发经济衰退。
15.许多杠杆收购是人为的灾害。当付出的代价过大时,一个杠杆收购的股权比例实在是一个地地道道的蚀价看涨期权。
16.金融类股有独特的风险。尤其是银行业,这是一个极具竞争性和挑战性的业务领域。欧洲的一家大型银行最近公布其在几年内实现20％的股本回报率（ROE）的目标。不幸的是,净资产收益率高度依赖于银行的绝对收益率,利息差,保持充足的贷款损失准备金,以及杠杆使用量。如果不能轻易达到20%的收益,银行要怎样做呢？增加杠杆吗？持有风险较高的资产？忽略损失的风险？在某些方面来看,一个主要的金融机构有净资产收益率目标是要惹祸的。
17.拥有有着长期定位的客户是至关重要的。对于一个投资公司的成功,没有比保持投资的稳定更重要的了。
18.当一个政府官员说,问题已被“控制”时,不要听信。
19.政府作为最终短期导向的角色,不会忍受经济或金融市场上的痛苦。救助和救援都可能发生,虽然对此投资者没有足够的预测性,不能舒服地有机可乘。政府将采取的这种干预具有巨大的风险,特别是当开支可以很方便地推迟到未来时。有些价格标签是以承诺保障的,其费用几乎是无法确定的。
20.几乎没有人会愿意承担他或她在一场危机中的责任:不是杠杆投机者,不是金融机构的视而不见领导层,当然也不是监管机构、政府官员、评级机构或政客。
总之,了解而且有效地践行从投资中得来的经验教训,需要一个有纪律、常常反省、以长期为导向的投资方法。它需要坚决以规避风险为重点,而不是寻求暂时回报的最大化,对金融市场周期性的认识,以及有时要非凡的耐心。
巴菲特：“我不关心宏观的经济形式”
《沃伦·巴菲特在佛罗里达大学的演讲》
价值投资一般采用的是自下而上的策略。这种策略其实就是投资者依靠个股筛选的投资策略。采用这种策略的投资者对企业没有任何预测，他们最为关注的是个别公司的表现和治理，然后根据实际情况分析其基本面，一个个地寻找便宜的证券。采用这种策略的投资者一般都忽略经济情势。
在佛罗里达大学的演讲时，就有学生要求巴菲特谈谈目前的经济形式和利率，和将来的走向。巴菲特直截了当地回答：“我不关心宏观的经济形式。”巴菲特认为，“在投资领域，你最希望做到的应该是搞清楚那些重要的，并且是可以搞懂的东西。对那些既不重要，又难以搞懂的东西，你忘了它们就对了。你所讲的，可能是重要的，但是难以拎清。”巴菲特是对的，因为宏观经济的确“难以拎清”。与巴菲特相反的是自上而下的策略，这是一种是通过预测宏观经济走向和行业公司前景，分析其他投资者将会有何反应，来决定是否投资以及投资何种品种的策略。采用这种策略并非易事，塞思·卡拉曼曾经指出，这种策略不仅有相当的难度，而且蕴含着极大的风险，同时每个步骤都可能出错。比如你能正确判断出世界正进入前所未有的和平与稳定吗？德国统一对德国利率以及德国马克是利多还是利空？等等。因此采用这种策略的投资者往往面临着让人望而却步的艰难任务。
但是，如果只关注的是个别公司的表现和治理，然后根据实际情况分析其基本面就将简单得多。因为“他们——比如可口可乐、 箭牌口香糖或柯达——的生意是可以拎得清的”。因此“我们从未因对宏观经济的感觉来买或者不买任何一家公司。我们根本就不读那些预估利率，企业利润的文章，因为那些预估真的是无关痛痒。” 巴菲特举例说，1972年，他买了 喜诗后不久，政府就对喜诗实施了价格管制，但那又怎么样？倒是如果因为价格管制的原因就没有去买，那么就将错过了以 2500万买下一个现如今税前利润 6000万的生意！
正因为如此，巴菲特才“不愿因为自身本就不精通的一些预估而错过买到好生意的机会”。因此他“根本就不听或不读那些涉及宏观经济因素的预估。”巴菲特说，在通常的投资咨询会上，经济学家们会做出对宏观经济的描述，然后以那为基础展开咨询活动。在他看来，那样做是毫无道理的。并且，假设艾伦·格林斯潘和罗伯特·鲁宾两位重量级人物，一个在他左边，一个在他右边，悄悄告诉他未来 12个月他们的每一步举措，他也是无动于衷的，而且也不会影响到他购买公务飞机公司或者通用再保险公司，或者他做的任何事情。
相对于自下而上的策略，我注意到，另一位大师级的投资人物杰瑞米·格兰桑采用的却是自上而下的策略，虽然他也是一位价值投资者——这很少见。2008年10月他曾与巴菲特发生过一场“争论”。当时，标准普尔500指数跌至950点，巴菲特在《纽约时报》撰文称，他正在买入美国股票，因为他认为这些股票很便宜，股价仅仅反映了大范围的恐慌而已。但是当时市场反映冷淡，其中一个重要的原因是因为市场中的大多数人和巴菲特的投资方法有巨大的差距。格兰桑也认为，这对于巴菲特而言，“有点不同寻常”。因为格兰桑运用回溯法，认为如果运用他现在的方法为1974年的市场估值，它也要比今天的950点便宜得多，而950点仅相当于他计算出的公允价值。格兰桑异常谨慎，他在2008年第四季度的报告中建议，要“缓慢并且小心翼翼地将你保留的现金转换为全球的股票，特别是美国高质量的蓝筹股和新兴市场的股票。”他预计7年回报会高于常态值，但也“应该为创出新低的下跌做好准备，因为市场总是喜欢在大型泡沫破灭之后在下跌途中修正过度。相比标准普尔在一天内达到的低点750点，600点或更低才是更为典型的低点。”
当然，市场并未如格兰桑的所愿，标准普尔一直到2009年3月9日才创出676.53的最低点位。格兰桑喜欢预测市场短期走势，而巴菲特却从不预测，巴菲特常说，“对于大市的走势，我一无所知。”格兰桑说，“难道巴菲特认为如1974年那般便宜的市场不会再次降临吗？或者说现在这个特殊的时期完全没有可能吗？如果这还存在争议，我们不能苟同。我们怀疑更低的价格不仅是可能的而且是很有可能的，虽然远远未到必然的程度。”格兰桑猜测道，“他是否拥有某种实战的市场定时模型，让他对只具有普通价值的东西产生明显的兴奋？考虑到他的投资风格，这不太可能。是不是我们猜错了？想都别想！无论如何，这是一个有趣的谜。”这个谜底在哪里？
采用自下而上的策略的投资者，都会极力关注价值与价格之间的缺口。缺口越大，市场就越有吸引力。这就是谜底。巴菲特也希望市场进一步向下调整。 巴菲特视纽约证交所就如同公司的超市。在这次演讲时的最后，巴菲特就这样说：“你知道自己要买股票，那么你盼着什么好事呢，你恨不得股价都跳水，越深越好，这样你就可以拣到些便宜货了。”他希望在未来 10年里，今天演讲在座的每个人可能都是股票的“净买家，而不是净卖家，”所以每个人都应该盼望更低的股价。巴菲特打比方说，未来 10年里，如果你肯定是汉堡包的大吃家，你就更应该盼望更便宜的汉堡包，除非你是养牛 “专业户 ”。同样的，如果你现在还不拥有可口可乐的股票，你又希望买一些，你一定盼着可乐的股价走低。你盼望的是超市在周末大甩卖，而不是涨价。 基于此，巴菲特确实不需要知道股票市场会有如何的走势，永远也不会。他甚至想都不去想这些事情。当股市真的走低时，他就会很用心的研究他要买些什么，因为他相信到那时他可以更高效地使用手上的资金。
价值投资一般采用的是自下而上的策略。这种策略其实就是投资者依靠个股筛选的投资策略。采用这种策略的投资者对企业没有任何预测，他们最为关注的是个别公司的表现和治理，然后根据实际情况分析其基本面，一个个地寻找便宜的证券。采用这种策略的投资者一般都忽略经济情势。
在佛罗里达大学的演讲时，就有学生要求巴菲特谈谈目前的经济形式和利率，和将来的走向。巴菲特直截了当地回答：“我不关心宏观的经济形式。”巴菲特认为，“在投资领域，你最希望做到的应该是搞清楚那些重要的，并且是可以搞懂的东西。对那些既不重要，又难以搞懂的东西，你忘了它们就对了。你所讲的，可能是重要的，但是难以拎清。”巴菲特是对的，因为宏观经济的确“难以拎清”。与巴菲特相反的是自上而下的策略，这是一种是通过预测宏观经济走向和行业公司前景，分析其他投资者将会有何反应，来决定是否投资以及投资何种品种的策略。采用这种策略并非易事，塞思·卡拉曼曾经指出，这种策略不仅有相当的难度，而且蕴含着极大的风险，同时每个步骤都可能出错。比如你能正确判断出世界正进入前所未有的和平与稳定吗？德国统一对德国利率以及德国马克是利多还是利空？等等。因此采用这种策略的投资者往往面临着让人望而却步的艰难任务。
但是，如果只关注的是个别公司的表现和治理，然后根据实际情况分析其基本面就将简单得多。因为“他们——比如可口可乐、 箭牌口香糖或柯达——的生意是可以拎得清的”。因此“我们从未因对宏观经济的感觉来买或者不买任何一家公司。我们根本就不读那些预估利率，企业利润的文章，因为那些预估真的是无关痛痒。” 巴菲特举例说，1972年，他买了 喜诗后不久，政府就对喜诗实施了价格管制，但那又怎么样？倒是如果因为价格管制的原因就没有去买，那么就将错过了以 2500万买下一个现如今税前利润 6000万的生意！
正因为如此，巴菲特才“不愿因为自身本就不精通的一些预估而错过买到好生意的机会”。因此他“根本就不听或不读那些涉及宏观经济因素的预估。”巴菲特说，在通常的投资咨询会上，经济学家们会做出对宏观经济的描述，然后以那为基础展开咨询活动。在他看来，那样做是毫无道理的。并且，假设艾伦·格林斯潘和罗伯特·鲁宾两位重量级人物，一个在他左边，一个在他右边，悄悄告诉他未来 12个月他们的每一步举措，他也是无动于衷的，而且也不会影响到他购买公务飞机公司或者通用再保险公司，或者他做的任何事情。
相对于自下而上的策略，我注意到，另一位大师级的投资人物杰瑞米·格兰桑采用的却是自上而下的策略，虽然他也是一位价值投资者——这很少见。2008年10月他曾与巴菲特发生过一场“争论”。当时，标准普尔500指数跌至950点，巴菲特在《纽约时报》撰文称，他正在买入美国股票，因为他认为这些股票很便宜，股价仅仅反映了大范围的恐慌而已。但是当时市场反映冷淡，其中一个重要的原因是因为市场中的大多数人和巴菲特的投资方法有巨大的差距。格兰桑也认为，这对于巴菲特而言，“有点不同寻常”。因为格兰桑运用回溯法，认为如果运用他现在的方法为1974年的市场估值，它也要比今天的950点便宜得多，而950点仅相当于他计算出的公允价值。格兰桑异常谨慎，他在2008年第四季度的报告中建议，要“缓慢并且小心翼翼地将你保留的现金转换为全球的股票，特别是美国高质量的蓝筹股和新兴市场的股票。”他预计7年回报会高于常态值，但也“应该为创出新低的下跌做好准备，因为市场总是喜欢在大型泡沫破灭之后在下跌途中修正过度。相比标准普尔在一天内达到的低点750点，600点或更低才是更为典型的低点。”
当然，市场并未如格兰桑的所愿，标准普尔一直到2009年3月9日才创出676.53的最低点位。格兰桑喜欢预测市场短期走势，而巴菲特却从不预测，巴菲特常说，“对于大市的走势，我一无所知。”格兰桑说，“难道巴菲特认为如1974年那般便宜的市场不会再次降临吗？或者说现在这个特殊的时期完全没有可能吗？如果这还存在争议，我们不能苟同。我们怀疑更低的价格不仅是可能的而且是很有可能的，虽然远远未到必然的程度。”格兰桑猜测道，“他是否拥有某种实战的市场定时模型，让他对只具有普通价值的东西产生明显的兴奋？考虑到他的投资风格，这不太可能。是不是我们猜错了？想都别想！无论如何，这是一个有趣的谜。”这个谜底在哪里？
采用自下而上的策略的投资者，都会极力关注价值与价格之间的缺口。缺口越大，市场就越有吸引力。这就是谜底。巴菲特也希望市场进一步向下调整。 巴菲特视纽约证交所就如同公司的超市。在这次演讲时的最后，巴菲特就这样说：“你知道自己要买股票，那么你盼着什么好事呢，你恨不得股价都跳水，越深越好，这样你就可以拣到些便宜货了。”他希望在未来 10年里，今天演讲在座的每个人可能都是股票的“净买家，而不是净卖家，”所以每个人都应该盼望更低的股价。巴菲特打比方说，未来 10年里，如果你肯定是汉堡包的大吃家，你就更应该盼望更便宜的汉堡包，除非你是养牛 “专业户 ”。同样的，如果你现在还不拥有可口可乐的股票，你又希望买一些，你一定盼着可乐的股价走低。你盼望的是超市在周末大甩卖，而不是涨价。 基于此，巴菲特确实不需要知道股票市场会有如何的走势，永远也不会。他甚至想都不去想这些事情。当股市真的走低时，他就会很用心的研究他要买些什么，因为他相信到那时他可以更高效地使用手上的资金。
《智慧投资者》六条定律（格雷厄姆）
买股票是一宗生意的一部分；市场总是在过度兴奋和过度悲观间摇摆，聪明的投资者是从过度悲观的人那里买来，卖给过度兴奋的人；你自己的表现远比证券的表现本身更能影响投资收益。
或许每个普通投资者都有赚钱的经历，但最终的盈利结果并不理想，很多人并不能通过股市来实现财富的持续增值。关键的问题就在于普通投资者喜欢在繁荣的牛市投资股票，不，是炒股。很多人不把投资股票当作一项投资，更不可能看作是一项生意。在许多投资人眼里，炒股就如同打麻将，他们也乐于来市场试试手气如何。因此，即使股价已经涨了3～5倍，但只要他们相信明天还会有一个涨停板（也许这就是最后一个涨停板了），他们还会勇于再持有一个晚上。等到第二天开盘，结果往往不是涨停板，而是不断下跌，甚至跌停。这个时候，上述投资人往往不会善罢甘休，他们非常恼火本来应该得到的馅饼又被市场先生抢走，因此，他们一定要等到手里的股票再涨一个涨停板才卖出，不过市场先生可不是那么善良的。最终，市场先生留给多数投资人的往往只有遗憾和懊悔。
投资收益是购买价格的函数，你买得高，收益率就低;不管多么小心，你无法不犯错误，只能恪守安全边际。也就是说，不管股票多么来劲绝不高买，你才能控制住犯错的后果。
要想获取长期高回报的收益，一定要保证价格足够便宜。举个例子，我知道很多风险投资商或股权投资人在购买潜在公司的股权时，其入股价格往往在3～5倍市盈率，甚至更低。但当股权流通到一级市场时，卖给普通投资人就变成了30～50倍，甚至更高。如果等到二级市场买入，那么，普通投资人花的价格可能高达80～100倍。很明显，对比之下，最先入股的机构投资者获得更大的收益。而在二级市场的投资者如果仍然要买入的话，那他简直就是在干傻事。显然，从一般角度而言，收益率是市盈率的倒数。买入的市盈率越高，往往意味着收益率越低。除非你认为目前公司价格严重低估，否则，你没有任何必要用更高的市盈率来二级市场购买股票。当然，我们并不否定在二级市场的投资机会，但这种投资机会往往更多的是来自熊市阶段。所以，格雷厄姆认为，牛市才是普通投资者亏钱的主要原因。因为繁荣的牛市看起来是最吸引人的时候，但往往股价也数倍于熊市阶段，因此，购买牛市阶段的股票，投资者需要承担更大的风险。
对股票价格要斤斤计较，要像超市购物，不要像买化妆品;真正重大的损失总是在投资者忘了问“多少钱”之后；高增长不等同于高盈利。上涨的股票风险增加而不是减少，下跌的股票风险减少而不是增加。
对股票价格斤斤计较，不是说当股价被低估的时候还要延迟买入。更为确切的说法是，我们要在详知公司内在价值的时候，学会货比三家，想方设法购买物美价廉的公司，而不是随意买卖股票。所以，购买性价比最高的股票的最好办法往往是逆势而为。当多数人退出市场时，当很多人闭口不谈股票之时，才是较好的买入时机。但投资最大的难点在于杜绝盲从心理，保持独立判断能力和个人勇气。敢于冒天下之大不韪，买入心仪的股票，这份勇气和决心绝不是常人能有的，优秀的投资人往往具有非凡的勇气和淡定的心态。
战胜市场平均水平非常难，如果你还是想试一试的话，那么，第一，你要有一个内在合理的策略;第二，这个策略得是市场上不流行的。战胜市场平均收益水平有可能但很难，普通投资者没必要有此追求。
战胜市场是一个梦想，虽然对很多人而言，确实比较难以实现，但并不表示没有机会。其实，是否战胜市场并不重要，尤其对普通投资者而言，只要能够跑赢通胀水平已经很不错。从长期收益率来看，一个投资者能够实现复利收益率为6％，那么，相对来说，他买的资产大概在16倍的市盈率。如果想追求更高的收益，那么只有保证市盈率更低。
黄金不是天然的对抗通胀工具，1935年到1970年金价表现不如存款。
黄金很自然不是对抗通胀的工具。有历史数据表明，无论是在美国还是在中国，黄金的长期收益居然跑不赢通胀水平。有人曾举例说明，在国初期，5两黄金可以买到一套四合院，但现在5两黄金最多买到一套进口组合沙发。现在有人倡言投资黄金，那不过也是一种见到黄金大涨之后的肾上腺激素分泌过度的行为，并没有进行过理性的分析和内在价值的评估。在价值投资者看来，任何商品都有内在价值。即使针对一个普通白领，我们也可以根据他未来的职业年限和现有的资产进行未来现金流的折现，来计算其内在价值。
投机不是不行，但致命的威胁是投机却自以为投资。投机时就要像理智存的赌徒，只带100美元去赌场，把棺材本锁在家中保险箱里。
投机就是赌博，去赌博肯定不能带上全部身家，否则就是赌命。我们不主张投机和赌博，但并不能阻止某些人热衷于此。所以，小赌怡情是可以的，但千万不要押上全部身家性命。当然，在某些人看来，或许投资也是投机，好比在价值投资者看来敢于在熊市出来是一种投资行为，但在市场大多数人看来，在熊市大
家准备撤退的时候去买入却是一种博傻行为。
不可否认，市场流行的盈利模式千奇百怪，常人自然无法分辨，价值投资也好，组合管理与技术分析也罢，或许都有盈利的机会。然而，从历史数据来看，似乎只有价值投资者才拥有长期不败的业绩。在价值投资者眼里，股权投资并非炒股，既不用每天敲打键盘，短线来回交易;也不用关注主力资金的进出流向，更不用考虑用方差来描述投资组合的风险。
价值投资者认为，一切投资的关键都源于公司内在价值与价格的关系。
或许每个普通投资者都有赚钱的经历，但最终的盈利结果并不理想，很多人并不能通过股市来实现财富的持续增值。关键的问题就在于普通投资者喜欢在繁荣的牛市投资股票，不，是炒股。很多人不把投资股票当作一项投资，更不可能看作是一项生意。在许多投资人眼里，炒股就如同打麻将，他们也乐于来市场试试手气如何。因此，即使股价已经涨了3～5倍，但只要他们相信明天还会有一个涨停板（也许这就是最后一个涨停板了），他们还会勇于再持有一个晚上。等到第二天开盘，结果往往不是涨停板，而是不断下跌，甚至跌停。这个时候，上述投资人往往不会善罢甘休，他们非常恼火本来应该得到的馅饼又被市场先生抢走，因此，他们一定要等到手里的股票再涨一个涨停板才卖出，不过市场先生可不是那么善良的。最终，市场先生留给多数投资人的往往只有遗憾和懊悔。
投资收益是购买价格的函数，你买得高，收益率就低;不管多么小心，你无法不犯错误，只能恪守安全边际。也就是说，不管股票多么来劲绝不高买，你才能控制住犯错的后果。
要想获取长期高回报的收益，一定要保证价格足够便宜。举个例子，我知道很多风险投资商或股权投资人在购买潜在公司的股权时，其入股价格往往在3～5倍市盈率，甚至更低。但当股权流通到一级市场时，卖给普通投资人就变成了30～50倍，甚至更高。如果等到二级市场买入，那么，普通投资人花的价格可能高达80～100倍。很明显，对比之下，最先入股的机构投资者获得更大的收益。而在二级市场的投资者如果仍然要买入的话，那他简直就是在干傻事。显然，从一般角度而言，收益率是市盈率的倒数。买入的市盈率越高，往往意味着收益率越低。除非你认为目前公司价格严重低估，否则，你没有任何必要用更高的市盈率来二级市场购买股票。当然，我们并不否定在二级市场的投资机会，但这种投资机会往往更多的是来自熊市阶段。所以，格雷厄姆认为，牛市才是普通投资者亏钱的主要原因。因为繁荣的牛市看起来是最吸引人的时候，但往往股价也数倍于熊市阶段，因此，购买牛市阶段的股票，投资者需要承担更大的风险。
对股票价格要斤斤计较，要像超市购物，不要像买化妆品;真正重大的损失总是在投资者忘了问“多少钱”之后；高增长不等同于高盈利。上涨的股票风险增加而不是减少，下跌的股票风险减少而不是增加。
对股票价格斤斤计较，不是说当股价被低估的时候还要延迟买入。更为确切的说法是，我们要在详知公司内在价值的时候，学会货比三家，想方设法购买物美价廉的公司，而不是随意买卖股票。所以，购买性价比最高的股票的最好办法往往是逆势而为。当多数人退出市场时，当很多人闭口不谈股票之时，才是较好的买入时机。但投资最大的难点在于杜绝盲从心理，保持独立判断能力和个人勇气。敢于冒天下之大不韪，买入心仪的股票，这份勇气和决心绝不是常人能有的，优秀的投资人往往具有非凡的勇气和淡定的心态。
战胜市场平均水平非常难，如果你还是想试一试的话，那么，第一，你要有一个内在合理的策略;第二，这个策略得是市场上不流行的。战胜市场平均收益水平有可能但很难，普通投资者没必要有此追求。
战胜市场是一个梦想，虽然对很多人而言，确实比较难以实现，但并不表示没有机会。其实，是否战胜市场并不重要，尤其对普通投资者而言，只要能够跑赢通胀水平已经很不错。从长期收益率来看，一个投资者能够实现复利收益率为6％，那么，相对来说，他买的资产大概在16倍的市盈率。如果想追求更高的收益，那么只有保证市盈率更低。
黄金不是天然的对抗通胀工具，1935年到1970年金价表现不如存款。
黄金很自然不是对抗通胀的工具。有历史数据表明，无论是在美国还是在中国，黄金的长期收益居然跑不赢通胀水平。有人曾举例说明，在国初期，5两黄金可以买到一套四合院，但现在5两黄金最多买到一套进口组合沙发。现在有人倡言投资黄金，那不过也是一种见到黄金大涨之后的肾上腺激素分泌过度的行为，并没有进行过理性的分析和内在价值的评估。在价值投资者看来，任何商品都有内在价值。即使针对一个普通白领，我们也可以根据他未来的职业年限和现有的资产进行未来现金流的折现，来计算其内在价值。
投机不是不行，但致命的威胁是投机却自以为投资。投机时就要像理智存的赌徒，只带100美元去赌场，把棺材本锁在家中保险箱里。
投机就是赌博，去赌博肯定不能带上全部身家，否则就是赌命。我们不主张投机和赌博，但并不能阻止某些人热衷于此。所以，小赌怡情是可以的，但千万不要押上全部身家性命。当然，在某些人看来，或许投资也是投机，好比在价值投资者看来敢于在熊市出来是一种投资行为，但在市场大多数人看来，在熊市大
家准备撤退的时候去买入却是一种博傻行为。
不可否认，市场流行的盈利模式千奇百怪，常人自然无法分辨，价值投资也好，组合管理与技术分析也罢，或许都有盈利的机会。然而，从历史数据来看，似乎只有价值投资者才拥有长期不败的业绩。在价值投资者眼里，股权投资并非炒股，既不用每天敲打键盘，短线来回交易;也不用关注主力资金的进出流向，更不用考虑用方差来描述投资组合的风险。
价值投资者认为，一切投资的关键都源于公司内在价值与价格的关系。
Thursday, April 8, 2010
How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over
There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over
There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
[See how to tell if you're keeping up with the middle class.]
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
[See how one family is rebuilding after losing their fortune.]
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
[See 21 things we're learning to live without.]
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
[See how to tell if you're keeping up with the middle class.]
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
[See how one family is rebuilding after losing their fortune.]
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
[See 21 things we're learning to live without.]
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
Rubin says he learned late of Citi's risky bets
Robert Rubin, a senior adviser to Citigroup Inc. at the time of its deep losses from subprime mortgages, said Wednesday that he learned belatedly that Citi had $43 billion in high-risk securities on its books.
"I do not recall knowing before September 2007" that the bank had held onto the investments composed of repackaged mortgage bonds, Rubin said. In November 2007, Citigroup publicly estimated it would lose $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter that year from those securities.
Rubin, a former Treasury secretary, is testifying to a panel investigating the roots of the financial crisis. He and other former Citigroup executives have been sharply criticized for allowing heavy investments in high-risk securities. Citi was a major subprime lender.
Former Citigroup CEO Charles Prince, who resigned in November 2007 when the bank acknowledged stunning losses from subprime mortgage securities, began his testimony with a mea culpa.
"Let me start by saying I'm sorry," Prince said at the second day of hearings by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. He is "deeply sorry," he said, for the failure of Citigroup's management, starting with him, to foresee the crisis that wreaked devastation on the U.S. economy and ordinary Americans.
Rubin said "We all bear responsibility for not recognizing this, and I deeply regret that."
Critics have said Rubin, with his vast experience on Wall Street and as Treasury chief in the Clinton administration, should have picked up on the warning signs of the crisis and taken a more active role in preventing Citigroup's debacle.
New York-based Citigroup was one of the hardest-hit banks during the credit crisis and the recession. It received $45 billion in federal bailout money -- one of the biggest rescues in the government's program.
As borrowers defaulted, Citibank's losses reached nearly $30 billion on some portions of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt.
"Those losses were a substantial cause of the bank's financial problems and led to the assistance from the U.S. government," Rubin said in his testimony.
Prince said he wasn't aware of decisions being made on the bank's trading desks to keep on its books the "super senior" CDOs. Still, he says, given that they were widely perceived as having a low risk of default, "it is hard for me to fault the traders who made the decisions."
"Regrettably, we were not able to prevent the losses that occurred, but it was not a result of management or board inattention or a lack of proper reporting of information," Prince said. He said multiple meetings were held to inform board members of developing problems and to solicit their advice.
Rubin said he was "confident" that Citi executives "believed in good faith" that their superiors didn't need to examine the bank's heavy holdings of the securities because they were triple-AAA rated and appeared safe from default.
The inquiry commission was created by Congress to delve into the causes of the financial crisis. The three sessions this week are focused on high-risk mortgage lending and the way trillions in risky mortgage debt was spread throughout the financial system. The goal is to provide a firsthand accounting of decisions that inflated a mortgage bubble and triggered the financial crisis.
Citigroup is being examined as a case study because it was heavily involved in each stage of the process. The bank was a major subprime lender through its subsidiary CitiFinancial. Other divisions of Citigroup pooled those loans and loans purchased from other mortgage companies and sold the income streams to investors.
When Citigroup announced the estimated losses of up to $11 billion in November 2007, Prince resigned, Win Bischoff became acting CEO, and Rubin stepped in as chairman, helping Citi raise billions in capital to shore up its sinking finances.
Rubin came to Citigroup as a "senior counselor" in 1999. He had worked for 25 years at Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs & Co., rising to co-CEO, before becoming President Bill Clinton's chief economic adviser in 1993 and Treasury secretary two years later.
"I do not recall knowing before September 2007" that the bank had held onto the investments composed of repackaged mortgage bonds, Rubin said. In November 2007, Citigroup publicly estimated it would lose $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter that year from those securities.
Rubin, a former Treasury secretary, is testifying to a panel investigating the roots of the financial crisis. He and other former Citigroup executives have been sharply criticized for allowing heavy investments in high-risk securities. Citi was a major subprime lender.
Former Citigroup CEO Charles Prince, who resigned in November 2007 when the bank acknowledged stunning losses from subprime mortgage securities, began his testimony with a mea culpa.
"Let me start by saying I'm sorry," Prince said at the second day of hearings by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. He is "deeply sorry," he said, for the failure of Citigroup's management, starting with him, to foresee the crisis that wreaked devastation on the U.S. economy and ordinary Americans.
Rubin said "We all bear responsibility for not recognizing this, and I deeply regret that."
Critics have said Rubin, with his vast experience on Wall Street and as Treasury chief in the Clinton administration, should have picked up on the warning signs of the crisis and taken a more active role in preventing Citigroup's debacle.
New York-based Citigroup was one of the hardest-hit banks during the credit crisis and the recession. It received $45 billion in federal bailout money -- one of the biggest rescues in the government's program.
As borrowers defaulted, Citibank's losses reached nearly $30 billion on some portions of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt.
"Those losses were a substantial cause of the bank's financial problems and led to the assistance from the U.S. government," Rubin said in his testimony.
Prince said he wasn't aware of decisions being made on the bank's trading desks to keep on its books the "super senior" CDOs. Still, he says, given that they were widely perceived as having a low risk of default, "it is hard for me to fault the traders who made the decisions."
"Regrettably, we were not able to prevent the losses that occurred, but it was not a result of management or board inattention or a lack of proper reporting of information," Prince said. He said multiple meetings were held to inform board members of developing problems and to solicit their advice.
Rubin said he was "confident" that Citi executives "believed in good faith" that their superiors didn't need to examine the bank's heavy holdings of the securities because they were triple-AAA rated and appeared safe from default.
The inquiry commission was created by Congress to delve into the causes of the financial crisis. The three sessions this week are focused on high-risk mortgage lending and the way trillions in risky mortgage debt was spread throughout the financial system. The goal is to provide a firsthand accounting of decisions that inflated a mortgage bubble and triggered the financial crisis.
Citigroup is being examined as a case study because it was heavily involved in each stage of the process. The bank was a major subprime lender through its subsidiary CitiFinancial. Other divisions of Citigroup pooled those loans and loans purchased from other mortgage companies and sold the income streams to investors.
When Citigroup announced the estimated losses of up to $11 billion in November 2007, Prince resigned, Win Bischoff became acting CEO, and Rubin stepped in as chairman, helping Citi raise billions in capital to shore up its sinking finances.
Rubin came to Citigroup as a "senior counselor" in 1999. He had worked for 25 years at Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs & Co., rising to co-CEO, before becoming President Bill Clinton's chief economic adviser in 1993 and Treasury secretary two years later.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
經濟數據回暖 量化寬鬆政策退出日近
瑞士信貸首席中國經濟學家陶冬於其博客發表的最 新文章中分析，各國經濟數據透露出成長前景的改善，使市場對主權債務的疑慮暫時淡去，而在美國就業明顯 改善、市場利率上揚之下，美聯儲可能將很快調整量化寬鬆的政策措施。
以下是陶冬博客文章全文。
增長前景的改善，取代了對主權債務違約的恐懼，成為市場的新焦點。資金加速流出國債市場，進入風險資產。套利交易日熾，商品價格回勇。歐元稍有喘定，日元匯率接力下滑。筆者認為，G3國家的經濟增長勢頭的確在加強，但是主權債務危機則不過是暫時被市場遺忘。
美國錄得超強勁的ISM數字。非農業就業增長雖然略低過預期，並被人口普查所帶來的短期工作所拔高，但是這仍不失為一個標誌性的進展，平均工作時間及單 位時間工資均有所上升，相信美國的就業市場已經進入了擴張期。儘管消費依然低迷，但是企業投資已大幅增加，去年過度裁員的企業也開始進行恢復性招工。由於就業明顯轉強，加上市場利率上揚，美國聯儲勢必要對目前的量化寬鬆政策作出新的交代，相信“相當一段時間”的字眼會在央行4月底例會後的聲明中消失。
近期日元疲弱，與其它貨幣兌美元的走勢不相稱，與最近改善中的經濟數據不相稱。筆者看來，有三個原因導致日元貶值：1）3月底年結前企業資金班師回國，當這部分資金流入消失後，日元補跌；2）日本銀行的量化寬鬆政策加碼，與其它央行的貨幣政策臨近“退出 ”相背離；3）日元取代美元成為套利交易的主要資金來源（funding currency）,增大了日元的沽壓。筆者個人認為，第三個因素的影響在加大，值得特別關注。
本周是央行例會的密集期。週二澳大利亞估計會加 息25基點，週三日本銀行、週四歐洲央行及英格蘭銀行 開會，不過利率不會有變。週一美國二手樓銷售環比預 計-0.2% vs -7.6%。
以下是陶冬博客文章全文。
增長前景的改善，取代了對主權債務違約的恐懼，成為市場的新焦點。資金加速流出國債市場，進入風險資產。套利交易日熾，商品價格回勇。歐元稍有喘定，日元匯率接力下滑。筆者認為，G3國家的經濟增長勢頭的確在加強，但是主權債務危機則不過是暫時被市場遺忘。
美國錄得超強勁的ISM數字。非農業就業增長雖然略低過預期，並被人口普查所帶來的短期工作所拔高，但是這仍不失為一個標誌性的進展，平均工作時間及單 位時間工資均有所上升，相信美國的就業市場已經進入了擴張期。儘管消費依然低迷，但是企業投資已大幅增加，去年過度裁員的企業也開始進行恢復性招工。由於就業明顯轉強，加上市場利率上揚，美國聯儲勢必要對目前的量化寬鬆政策作出新的交代，相信“相當一段時間”的字眼會在央行4月底例會後的聲明中消失。
近期日元疲弱，與其它貨幣兌美元的走勢不相稱，與最近改善中的經濟數據不相稱。筆者看來，有三個原因導致日元貶值：1）3月底年結前企業資金班師回國，當這部分資金流入消失後，日元補跌；2）日本銀行的量化寬鬆政策加碼，與其它央行的貨幣政策臨近“退出 ”相背離；3）日元取代美元成為套利交易的主要資金來源（funding currency）,增大了日元的沽壓。筆者個人認為，第三個因素的影響在加大，值得特別關注。
本周是央行例會的密集期。週二澳大利亞估計會加 息25基點，週三日本銀行、週四歐洲央行及英格蘭銀行 開會，不過利率不會有變。週一美國二手樓銷售環比預 計-0.2% vs -7.6%。
Monday, April 5, 2010
分享集:狭颈瓶中糖果
语云“现金为王”，道尽了现金的威力。
上市公司的账目，有没有被灌水，谁也不能保证。账目中几乎每一个项目都有可能造假，只有一个项目例外——现金。难怪投资者对拥有巨额现金，完全没有负债的公司，信心满满。
现金充沛的公司，在金融风暴中，轻易化险为夷，拥有这类公司的股票，可以高枕无忧。
但从做生意的观点看，坐拥大量现金长期不动用，有违股东投资于公司之原意。
一家公司，手头能够持有巨额现金，必然是历年盈利丰厚，日积月累而成的。公司掌舵人立下之汗马功劳，股东应激赏。
公司赚钱固然重要，但同样重要的是将所赚到的钱分发给股东。投资的整个过程由三个环节组成：
1. 投入资金；
2. 赚取利润；
3. 分红。
如果公司把赚到的钱长期存放在公司不分给股东，等于没有完成投资过程。
公司的所有资产，包括现金，当然都是属于全体股东的。长期将钱存放银行，又不进行投资，对大小股东都有欠公允。
小孩子对糖果总是贪得无厌，如果任由取食，恐有碍健康。为了节制小孩子食糖过多，大人把糖果储存在狭颈的大肚玻璃瓶中，小孩伸手入瓶，每次只可拿一粒，如果他贪多，握满一把，则拳头大，瓶颈小，就无法把手抽出来。
如此一来，小孩对瓶中的糖果，看得到却吃不到，只有猛呑口水的份儿。那种无法满足食欲的滋味，真不好受。
小孩的感受，正是多金公司股东的感受。
多金公司3选择
多金公司，如何应用过剩资金，有三个选择：
第一个选择：积极寻找新的投资机会，以提高盈利，这是上策。
例如:拥有1亿2000万令吉现金的格林尼(Glenealy)积极开拓新油棕园，拥有3亿令吉现金的红筹股星泉兴建新厂，使产能倍增，拥有2亿3000万令吉的鹏尼迪(Plenitude)，积极增购地皮，补充地库；拥有净现金近7000万令吉的建筑股亿成控股(Melati)积极在雪隆买地皮，俾将业务多元化至产业发展；握有1亿7500万令吉的金兴投资于基金；握有净现金5000万令吉的KESM雄心万丈，要将该公司发展为世界级的电子测试公司。
新投资明智
这些投资都有提高公司未来盈利的潜能，积极应用现金进行新投资乃明智。
第二个选择：通过派发高股息、特别股息或回退资本，将过剩现金还给股东，这是中策，却是最合算的做法。
拥有3亿令吉现金的中钢(CSC Steel)，拥有1亿2000万令吉的PIE；拥有4000万令吉现金的纬钜(Wellcall)；拥有1亿2500万令吉的速远(Zhulian)，都将超过60%的盈利，通过发高股息回馈股东，大受股东欢迎。
第三个选择：长期将巨额现金存放银行，派发微不足道的股息。如一些小型种植公司的作法，此为下策。
持有巨额现金的公司，如果经过5年仍无法找到适当的投资，而本行已饱和，没有扩展业务的空间，何不考虑将资金退回给股东，由股东自己去寻找投资机会，岂不更好？这样做，相信大小股东，都会无任欢迎。
对于投资大众来说，现金多，派息少的公司的股票，有如鸡肋——食之无味，弃之可惜。明知股票价值被低估，却对买进与否，难以抉择，那种无可奈何的感觉，实令人沮丧。
上市公司的账目，有没有被灌水，谁也不能保证。账目中几乎每一个项目都有可能造假，只有一个项目例外——现金。难怪投资者对拥有巨额现金，完全没有负债的公司，信心满满。
现金充沛的公司，在金融风暴中，轻易化险为夷，拥有这类公司的股票，可以高枕无忧。
但从做生意的观点看，坐拥大量现金长期不动用，有违股东投资于公司之原意。
一家公司，手头能够持有巨额现金，必然是历年盈利丰厚，日积月累而成的。公司掌舵人立下之汗马功劳，股东应激赏。
公司赚钱固然重要，但同样重要的是将所赚到的钱分发给股东。投资的整个过程由三个环节组成：
1. 投入资金；
2. 赚取利润；
3. 分红。
如果公司把赚到的钱长期存放在公司不分给股东，等于没有完成投资过程。
公司的所有资产，包括现金，当然都是属于全体股东的。长期将钱存放银行，又不进行投资，对大小股东都有欠公允。
小孩子对糖果总是贪得无厌，如果任由取食，恐有碍健康。为了节制小孩子食糖过多，大人把糖果储存在狭颈的大肚玻璃瓶中，小孩伸手入瓶，每次只可拿一粒，如果他贪多，握满一把，则拳头大，瓶颈小，就无法把手抽出来。
如此一来，小孩对瓶中的糖果，看得到却吃不到，只有猛呑口水的份儿。那种无法满足食欲的滋味，真不好受。
小孩的感受，正是多金公司股东的感受。
多金公司3选择
多金公司，如何应用过剩资金，有三个选择：
第一个选择：积极寻找新的投资机会，以提高盈利，这是上策。
例如:拥有1亿2000万令吉现金的格林尼(Glenealy)积极开拓新油棕园，拥有3亿令吉现金的红筹股星泉兴建新厂，使产能倍增，拥有2亿3000万令吉的鹏尼迪(Plenitude)，积极增购地皮，补充地库；拥有净现金近7000万令吉的建筑股亿成控股(Melati)积极在雪隆买地皮，俾将业务多元化至产业发展；握有1亿7500万令吉的金兴投资于基金；握有净现金5000万令吉的KESM雄心万丈，要将该公司发展为世界级的电子测试公司。
新投资明智
这些投资都有提高公司未来盈利的潜能，积极应用现金进行新投资乃明智。
第二个选择：通过派发高股息、特别股息或回退资本，将过剩现金还给股东，这是中策，却是最合算的做法。
拥有3亿令吉现金的中钢(CSC Steel)，拥有1亿2000万令吉的PIE；拥有4000万令吉现金的纬钜(Wellcall)；拥有1亿2500万令吉的速远(Zhulian)，都将超过60%的盈利，通过发高股息回馈股东，大受股东欢迎。
第三个选择：长期将巨额现金存放银行，派发微不足道的股息。如一些小型种植公司的作法，此为下策。
持有巨额现金的公司，如果经过5年仍无法找到适当的投资，而本行已饱和，没有扩展业务的空间，何不考虑将资金退回给股东，由股东自己去寻找投资机会，岂不更好？这样做，相信大小股东，都会无任欢迎。
对于投资大众来说，现金多，派息少的公司的股票，有如鸡肋——食之无味，弃之可惜。明知股票价值被低估，却对买进与否，难以抉择，那种无可奈何的感觉，实令人沮丧。
Friday, April 2, 2010
Should You Sell in April and Go Away?
Should you try to get a head start on those who are planning "sell in May and go away?"
If so, then you will be looking for an opportunity to sell your stocks in April and go to cash, thereby beating the many investors who will instead wait until a month from now.
But before you rush to sell everything, bear in mind that the odds of success are quite low. Stock market timers in general have very poor success rates, rarely doing better over the long term than simply buying and holding. Why would we think that they can do any better timing their entries and exits in October and April than in any other month of the year?
Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
And over the past eight years, one of the two market timing services that I monitor that regularly second-guess the "Sell in May and Go Away" system has significantly increased that seasonal pattern's performance. While the other one has not improved on the Halloween Indicator, it at least hasn't done appreciably worse -- and has still beaten a buy-and-hold strategy.
If you are not familiar with "Selling in May and Go Away," you may know by its other name: The Halloween Indicator.
According to a comprehensive review of its historical legitimacy that appeared in the December 2002 issue of the prestigious academic journal, American Economic Review, this pattern has existed historically in 36 of 37 countries studied. In each of those countries, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact, the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months. That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
To be sure, the results of this study are based on long-term averages, and there have been many individual years in which the overall pattern did not hold up. Several such exceptions came during the recent bear market, for example, when the winter months from November 2007 through April 2008, as well as from November 2008 through April 2009, saw the stock market buck the favorable seasonality and fall sharply.
Nevertheless, the "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy has more than made up for these and other missteps and therefore is in the rarefied ranks of those select few market timing systems that truly have worked over the long term.
But, not willing to leave well enough alone, two market timing services I monitor have for a number of years tried to second guess the exact days on which a follower of this seasonal pattern would enter and exit the market. The first is the Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch, and the other is Sy Harding's Street Smart Report, edited by Sy Harding.
Both pursue surprisingly similar modifications to this basic seasonal pattern: Each relies on a technical indicator known as MACD to pinpoint the precise day on which they should get back into the market at the beginning of the six-month seasonal period, as well as when to get out at the end of that period. (MACD, of course, stands for moving average convergence divergence. It is a short-term momentum indicator, created several decades ago by Gerald Appel, editor of the Systems & Forecasts advisory service. It compares the relative movements of several moving averages of different lengths.)
Sometimes the modifications recommended by Harding and Hirsch are quite minor. In 2004, for example, Hirsch's version of this seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 index re-entered the market on Oct. 28, just three days before it otherwise would. But in other years the differences have been quite significant.
The Hulbert Financial Digest has data for both market timers' modifications of the Halloween Indicator back to mid-2002, eight years ago. The HFD calculates their returns on the assumption that, when they are invested in stocks, they earn the return of the Wilshire 5000 Index; otherwise they are assumed to be invested in 90-day Treasury bills.
To put these newsletters' success into context, consider that since mid-2002, a buy-and-hold has produced a 3.4% annualized return. A purely mechanical application of the Halloween Indicator (automatically entering the market on Halloween and exiting on May Day) would have produced a 4.3% annualized return. Note that this 4.3% return beats the market by even more on a risk-adjusted basis, since it was produced with half the risk.
Now consider the performance of Harding's modification of the Halloween Indicator: It produced a 6.1% return (annualized) over the same period, or 1.8 percentage points per year more than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern, and 2.7 percentage points ahead of a buy-and-hold.
In fact, this performance is good enough to place Harding's version of the Halloween Indicator in 13th place for performance since mid 2002, out of the 132 timing strategies the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period.
To be sure, Hirsch's modification of the Halloween Indicator performed less well, producing a 3.9% annualized return. Though that is less than the 4.3% return of the pure version of the Halloween Indicator, note that it is still better than buying and holding.
What about this April? To be informed when these two newsletters actually trigger their buy signals, of course, you will need to subscribe to their services.
But one way in which their MACD-based systems are likely to trigger an early sell signal (but not the only way) is if the market is strong for a week or two and then quickly drops back.
If that happens, traders interested in taking the rest of the spring and summer off from stressing about the market may want to consider going to cash.
If so, then you will be looking for an opportunity to sell your stocks in April and go to cash, thereby beating the many investors who will instead wait until a month from now.
But before you rush to sell everything, bear in mind that the odds of success are quite low. Stock market timers in general have very poor success rates, rarely doing better over the long term than simply buying and holding. Why would we think that they can do any better timing their entries and exits in October and April than in any other month of the year?
Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
And over the past eight years, one of the two market timing services that I monitor that regularly second-guess the "Sell in May and Go Away" system has significantly increased that seasonal pattern's performance. While the other one has not improved on the Halloween Indicator, it at least hasn't done appreciably worse -- and has still beaten a buy-and-hold strategy.
If you are not familiar with "Selling in May and Go Away," you may know by its other name: The Halloween Indicator.
According to a comprehensive review of its historical legitimacy that appeared in the December 2002 issue of the prestigious academic journal, American Economic Review, this pattern has existed historically in 36 of 37 countries studied. In each of those countries, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact, the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months. That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
To be sure, the results of this study are based on long-term averages, and there have been many individual years in which the overall pattern did not hold up. Several such exceptions came during the recent bear market, for example, when the winter months from November 2007 through April 2008, as well as from November 2008 through April 2009, saw the stock market buck the favorable seasonality and fall sharply.
Nevertheless, the "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy has more than made up for these and other missteps and therefore is in the rarefied ranks of those select few market timing systems that truly have worked over the long term.
But, not willing to leave well enough alone, two market timing services I monitor have for a number of years tried to second guess the exact days on which a follower of this seasonal pattern would enter and exit the market. The first is the Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch, and the other is Sy Harding's Street Smart Report, edited by Sy Harding.
Both pursue surprisingly similar modifications to this basic seasonal pattern: Each relies on a technical indicator known as MACD to pinpoint the precise day on which they should get back into the market at the beginning of the six-month seasonal period, as well as when to get out at the end of that period. (MACD, of course, stands for moving average convergence divergence. It is a short-term momentum indicator, created several decades ago by Gerald Appel, editor of the Systems & Forecasts advisory service. It compares the relative movements of several moving averages of different lengths.)
Sometimes the modifications recommended by Harding and Hirsch are quite minor. In 2004, for example, Hirsch's version of this seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 index re-entered the market on Oct. 28, just three days before it otherwise would. But in other years the differences have been quite significant.
The Hulbert Financial Digest has data for both market timers' modifications of the Halloween Indicator back to mid-2002, eight years ago. The HFD calculates their returns on the assumption that, when they are invested in stocks, they earn the return of the Wilshire 5000 Index; otherwise they are assumed to be invested in 90-day Treasury bills.
To put these newsletters' success into context, consider that since mid-2002, a buy-and-hold has produced a 3.4% annualized return. A purely mechanical application of the Halloween Indicator (automatically entering the market on Halloween and exiting on May Day) would have produced a 4.3% annualized return. Note that this 4.3% return beats the market by even more on a risk-adjusted basis, since it was produced with half the risk.
Now consider the performance of Harding's modification of the Halloween Indicator: It produced a 6.1% return (annualized) over the same period, or 1.8 percentage points per year more than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern, and 2.7 percentage points ahead of a buy-and-hold.
In fact, this performance is good enough to place Harding's version of the Halloween Indicator in 13th place for performance since mid 2002, out of the 132 timing strategies the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period.
To be sure, Hirsch's modification of the Halloween Indicator performed less well, producing a 3.9% annualized return. Though that is less than the 4.3% return of the pure version of the Halloween Indicator, note that it is still better than buying and holding.
What about this April? To be informed when these two newsletters actually trigger their buy signals, of course, you will need to subscribe to their services.
But one way in which their MACD-based systems are likely to trigger an early sell signal (but not the only way) is if the market is strong for a week or two and then quickly drops back.
If that happens, traders interested in taking the rest of the spring and summer off from stressing about the market may want to consider going to cash.
Next Meltdown Will Be Driven by "Big Collapses in Emerging Markets," Johnson Says
With Greece's rescue plan in jeopardy as bonds fall, nations' ability to pay back debts are raising concerns around the world. Of course, in this case, European Central Bank and Greece officials were trumpeting optimism.
But Greece needs a "much more dramatic fiscal program, which is going to be awfully painful and I doubt that will work politically, or debt restructuring. And no one wants to talk about debt structuring yet," says our guest Simon Johnson, an economics professor at MIT and former research director for the IMF.
Is America the next Greece?
With America's debt rising (as Aaron discussed earlier this week with budget hawk David Walker), it's only natural to wonder if America is headed down a similar Greek path. "Absolutely not," Johnson tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip.
America's debt is denominated in dollars that we control, Simon notes, unlike Greece's fate that's tied to the European Union. With the right tax reform, the U.S. can steer clear of a debt crisis, adds Johnson, co-author of "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown." The new book chronicles the rise of concentrated financial power and its threat to our economic well-being.
So what's the next shoe to drop?
Hint: Markets that are getting too hot now. "The next crisis, the next meltdown I think will be driven by some big collapses in emerging markets including China," Johnson says.
But Greece needs a "much more dramatic fiscal program, which is going to be awfully painful and I doubt that will work politically, or debt restructuring. And no one wants to talk about debt structuring yet," says our guest Simon Johnson, an economics professor at MIT and former research director for the IMF.
Is America the next Greece?
With America's debt rising (as Aaron discussed earlier this week with budget hawk David Walker), it's only natural to wonder if America is headed down a similar Greek path. "Absolutely not," Johnson tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip.
America's debt is denominated in dollars that we control, Simon notes, unlike Greece's fate that's tied to the European Union. With the right tax reform, the U.S. can steer clear of a debt crisis, adds Johnson, co-author of "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown." The new book chronicles the rise of concentrated financial power and its threat to our economic well-being.
So what's the next shoe to drop?
Hint: Markets that are getting too hot now. "The next crisis, the next meltdown I think will be driven by some big collapses in emerging markets including China," Johnson says.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
分享集: 先处战地者逸
孙子曰：“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚)，后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。
(白话译文：孙子说：“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸，后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)
孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸，从容不迫；“劳”就是疲劳，疲于奔命。
甲乙两军对垒，要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场，有足够的时间了解地形，构筑好工事，作好如何迎击，如何歼敌，如何撤退等的准备，而士兵又有足够的时间休息，养精蓄锐，以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足，他们可以从容不迫地备战，这就是“逸”。
乙军远道而来，一到战场，士兵已精疲力倦，由于马上就要投入战斗，根本没有时间了解战地形势，更不要说策划战略了，这种打法，兵士疲于奔命，这就是“劳”。
甲军准备充足，以逸待劳，胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师，仓促作战，胜算自然较低。
利润是战利品
股市就是一个战场，买方和卖方，就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利，是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票，此股涨至3令吉，买方赚1令吉，卖方就损失了1令吉的利润，买方是胜利者。同样的，如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方，股价跌至3令吉，买方亏损2令吉，则卖方是胜利者。
利润，就是买卖两方的战利品，是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。
军事之战和股市之战，其实极为相似，都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸，后处战地而趋战者劳”。
在股市中，绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。
当股市沉静时，他们按兵不动，直到股市狂升，股价大涨时才冲进股市，仓促作战，由于行动仓促，备战工作不足，结果是屡犯错误，搞到损兵折将，铩羽而归。
他们在股市中抢进杀出，终日提心吊胆，生活在炼狱中，这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获，还算值得，但是，如果劳而无功，不但无功，而且满身刀伤，怎么值得？然而投资者却趋之若鹜，乐此不疲，实在匪夷所思。
其实，只要投资者改弦易辙，采取孙子所说的方法，先处战地以等待敌人的到来，则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人，卤获丰富的战利品，同时又可以过着安逸的生活。
先处战地而待敌人到来，有两个好处：
1）你有足够的时间，作好战斗的准备。
在股市之战中，你有足够的时间做好功课，考虑更周密，犯错的机会自然减到最低。
减少错误，等于提高胜算。
2）你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么，要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢？
很简单，只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。
所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么，你就给他什么。
有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时，投资者惊慌失措，他们不计成本，在股市中贱价售股，要收回资金；这时候，你就顺应他们的要求，给他金钱，接受他的股票。
当公牛发狂，股价涨到离谱的高峰时，人人进场狂追，他们要的是股票，不要金钱，这时，你就顺应他们的要求，把股票卖给他，接受他的金钱。你这样做，就是有求必应，有求必应的人，就是好人，好人有好心，好心有好报，你这样做，准会发达。
“有求必应”的做法，其实就是反向。
“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步，这一步可能只是一小步，但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候，金融海啸蹂躏下，股市疮痍满目，如果你在那时买进股票，等于“先处战地”，今天的战利品大得惊人。
获利时间较长
这种“先处战地”的策略，应用在股票上，效果如响斯应，试举例说明：
1)当经济衰退时，大胆投资，等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中，“先处战地”，低价买好股，等待公牛回头。
3) 棕油价低沉，买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩，钢材大跌，买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底，开始回升，买夹板股。
6) 受去年金融海啸冲击，一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏，以后不再发生，今年开始恢复盈利，可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股，价值被严重低估，可买，等待别人发现它们。
这样的例子很多，投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维，应用起来，自然得心应手。
这种策略的缺点，如果也算是缺点的话，就是等待获利的时间较长，例如夹板价格回暖了，但夹板股的盈利，要一年以后才公布，你必须有等待一两年的耐性，才能得利。
优点是由于买得早，买价常常极低，风险小，利润高。
时间就是金钱，此言不谬。
(白话译文：孙子说：“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸，后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)
孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸，从容不迫；“劳”就是疲劳，疲于奔命。
甲乙两军对垒，要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场，有足够的时间了解地形，构筑好工事，作好如何迎击，如何歼敌，如何撤退等的准备，而士兵又有足够的时间休息，养精蓄锐，以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足，他们可以从容不迫地备战，这就是“逸”。
乙军远道而来，一到战场，士兵已精疲力倦，由于马上就要投入战斗，根本没有时间了解战地形势，更不要说策划战略了，这种打法，兵士疲于奔命，这就是“劳”。
甲军准备充足，以逸待劳，胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师，仓促作战，胜算自然较低。
利润是战利品
股市就是一个战场，买方和卖方，就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利，是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票，此股涨至3令吉，买方赚1令吉，卖方就损失了1令吉的利润，买方是胜利者。同样的，如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方，股价跌至3令吉，买方亏损2令吉，则卖方是胜利者。
利润，就是买卖两方的战利品，是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。
军事之战和股市之战，其实极为相似，都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸，后处战地而趋战者劳”。
在股市中，绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。
当股市沉静时，他们按兵不动，直到股市狂升，股价大涨时才冲进股市，仓促作战，由于行动仓促，备战工作不足，结果是屡犯错误，搞到损兵折将，铩羽而归。
他们在股市中抢进杀出，终日提心吊胆，生活在炼狱中，这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获，还算值得，但是，如果劳而无功，不但无功，而且满身刀伤，怎么值得？然而投资者却趋之若鹜，乐此不疲，实在匪夷所思。
其实，只要投资者改弦易辙，采取孙子所说的方法，先处战地以等待敌人的到来，则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人，卤获丰富的战利品，同时又可以过着安逸的生活。
先处战地而待敌人到来，有两个好处：
1）你有足够的时间，作好战斗的准备。
在股市之战中，你有足够的时间做好功课，考虑更周密，犯错的机会自然减到最低。
减少错误，等于提高胜算。
2）你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么，要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢？
很简单，只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。
所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么，你就给他什么。
有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时，投资者惊慌失措，他们不计成本，在股市中贱价售股，要收回资金；这时候，你就顺应他们的要求，给他金钱，接受他的股票。
当公牛发狂，股价涨到离谱的高峰时，人人进场狂追，他们要的是股票，不要金钱，这时，你就顺应他们的要求，把股票卖给他，接受他的金钱。你这样做，就是有求必应，有求必应的人，就是好人，好人有好心，好心有好报，你这样做，准会发达。
“有求必应”的做法，其实就是反向。
“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步，这一步可能只是一小步，但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候，金融海啸蹂躏下，股市疮痍满目，如果你在那时买进股票，等于“先处战地”，今天的战利品大得惊人。
获利时间较长
这种“先处战地”的策略，应用在股票上，效果如响斯应，试举例说明：
1)当经济衰退时，大胆投资，等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中，“先处战地”，低价买好股，等待公牛回头。
3) 棕油价低沉，买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩，钢材大跌，买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底，开始回升，买夹板股。
6) 受去年金融海啸冲击，一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏，以后不再发生，今年开始恢复盈利，可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股，价值被严重低估，可买，等待别人发现它们。
这样的例子很多，投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维，应用起来，自然得心应手。
这种策略的缺点，如果也算是缺点的话，就是等待获利的时间较长，例如夹板价格回暖了，但夹板股的盈利，要一年以后才公布，你必须有等待一两年的耐性，才能得利。
优点是由于买得早，买价常常极低，风险小，利润高。
时间就是金钱，此言不谬。
Monday, March 29, 2010
Bears Are Dead Wrong: S&P Will Reach 1,300 by Year's End, Altucher Says
As the market continues its climb of 70 percent-plus off the lows, and the gap widens between the housing and stock markets, the bears are convinced of a downturn -- any day now. But our guest James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, disagrees.
"The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish."
Altucher points to the common arguments the bears make -- and why they're wrong:
Lots of homes are in foreclosure or under water: That's true but there are bright spots in housing data including the Case-Shiller reports, Altucher notes. That housing index has been up the past six months, suggesting prices are stabilizing, he adds.
All the growth we're seeing is just inventory rebuild. Businesses cleared their inventory in anticipation of the 2010 Great Depression that never happened. Now businesses are scrambling to restock, spurring growth in the economy that's likely to last for one to two years at least. "People are going to be surprised how fast and furious this inventory rebuild is going to happen," Altucher says.
Unemployment is 9.7%.Yes but other jobs data show a rise in part-time hours, hourly pay, hours per week, and number of temporary workers. And these are all precursors to gains in fulltime jobs, Altucher explains.
"Before this is fully over we're going to see new all-time highs again. And I do think that we're going to see 1,300 by the end of the year on the S&P," Altucher says.
"The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish."
Altucher points to the common arguments the bears make -- and why they're wrong:
Lots of homes are in foreclosure or under water: That's true but there are bright spots in housing data including the Case-Shiller reports, Altucher notes. That housing index has been up the past six months, suggesting prices are stabilizing, he adds.
All the growth we're seeing is just inventory rebuild. Businesses cleared their inventory in anticipation of the 2010 Great Depression that never happened. Now businesses are scrambling to restock, spurring growth in the economy that's likely to last for one to two years at least. "People are going to be surprised how fast and furious this inventory rebuild is going to happen," Altucher says.
Unemployment is 9.7%.Yes but other jobs data show a rise in part-time hours, hourly pay, hours per week, and number of temporary workers. And these are all precursors to gains in fulltime jobs, Altucher explains.
"Before this is fully over we're going to see new all-time highs again. And I do think that we're going to see 1,300 by the end of the year on the S&P," Altucher says.
Berkowitz: Citi's Balance Sheet 'Better Than Ever'
Fairholme Fund (NASDAQ: FAIRX - News) manager Bruce Berkowitz told Barron's good investments are getting hard to find, but he's still bullish on some of his most interesting fourth-quarter bets.
"My sense is that the investments made in the past 18 months will continue to do quite well." That's what Berkowitz had to say about the current stock-picking environment in a recent interview with Barron's, but the value investing legend conceded that we are nearing the point where interesting investments will become increasingly harder to find. Still, Berkowitz is bullish on the financial names found among his top U.S.-listed equity holdings from the end of 2009.
Berkowitz explained that firms in the financial sector write their best business when times are tough. As for Citigroup (NYSE: C - News), where Fairholme added notable stakes during Q4, Berkowitz went as far as to say, "the balance sheet is better than ever." He also reiterated his bullish view of AIG (NYSE: AIG - News), calling it "tremendously solid," and crediting faulty derivative plays for its recent weakness.
Fairlholme's stakes in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) and health insurance firm Humana (NYSE: HUM - News) have been among laggards over the past month. Meanwhile, Florida-based real estate development company St. Joe (NYSE: JOE - News) is a top performer among Fairholme's latest disclosed holdings. Berkowitz called the stock a "deep-value play," citing the beauty of the firm's real estate, which more buyers may get to experience when the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport opens in May.
Investors can visit tickerspy.com to see all of Fairholme's top holdings and a chart of their combined performance. Members of the site can also track the aggregate performance of Fairholme's holdings throughout each market day.
"My sense is that the investments made in the past 18 months will continue to do quite well." That's what Berkowitz had to say about the current stock-picking environment in a recent interview with Barron's, but the value investing legend conceded that we are nearing the point where interesting investments will become increasingly harder to find. Still, Berkowitz is bullish on the financial names found among his top U.S.-listed equity holdings from the end of 2009.
Berkowitz explained that firms in the financial sector write their best business when times are tough. As for Citigroup (NYSE: C - News), where Fairholme added notable stakes during Q4, Berkowitz went as far as to say, "the balance sheet is better than ever." He also reiterated his bullish view of AIG (NYSE: AIG - News), calling it "tremendously solid," and crediting faulty derivative plays for its recent weakness.
Fairlholme's stakes in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) and health insurance firm Humana (NYSE: HUM - News) have been among laggards over the past month. Meanwhile, Florida-based real estate development company St. Joe (NYSE: JOE - News) is a top performer among Fairholme's latest disclosed holdings. Berkowitz called the stock a "deep-value play," citing the beauty of the firm's real estate, which more buyers may get to experience when the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport opens in May.
Investors can visit tickerspy.com to see all of Fairholme's top holdings and a chart of their combined performance. Members of the site can also track the aggregate performance of Fairholme's holdings throughout each market day.
Thursday's session amounted to a 'key reversal day'
The stock market's dramatic pullback from its intraday highs Thursday constitutes a textbook illustration of a "key reversal day," which has bearish consequences for at least the stock market's short-term prospects.
According to the standard definition, of course, a key reversal day occurs when the market hits a new intraday high and then closes down. And that, the stock market did on Thursday.
At one point in Thursday's session, in fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 120 points, reaching the 10,955 level -- a new high for the bull market that began in March 2009. Reclaiming the 11,000 level seemed like a sure thing.
And, then, the rally abruptly lost steam. By the close, the broad market had slipped into the loss column for the session -- though the Dow finished with a 5-point gain.
Dramatic as Thursday's reversal was, though, its bearishness -- in and of itself -- is probably of just short-term significance.
That, at least, is the argument made in the latest edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the classic textbook on technical chart formations. Written originally many decades ago by Robert Edwards and John Magee, this textbook was updated as part of the latest (ninth) edition by W. H. C. Bassetti, who is an adjunct professor of finance and economics at Golden Gate University.
What could very well make the difference for whether weakness in coming sessions turns into something more major is sentiment. If the mood quickly turns sour in the wake of that weakness, then the bull market might very well secure another lease on life.
But if, instead, investors and advisers still refuse to build up their cash positions in the face of any such weakness, then contrarian analysis at least will conclude that bigger losses are in store.
It's too early to tell how sentiment trends will unfold in coming sessions, of course. But it's worth noting that Thursday's key reversal day comes at a time when bullish sentiment is at high enough levels to be a source of concern.
In addition, Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, reported on Wednesday of this week that his firm's so-called "Crowd Sentiment Poll," which is a composite of a number of separate sentiment indicators, had just risen into the "Extreme Optimism" zone.
As recently as this past February, in contrast, Davis' "Crowd Sentiment Poll" had been in the "Extreme Pessimism" zone. So there's been a huge swing in sentiment in a very short period of time.
Unless there is an equally big movement to jump back off of the bullish bandwagon in coming days, Thursday's key reversal could very well turn into a decline that is of more than just short-term significance.
Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
According to the standard definition, of course, a key reversal day occurs when the market hits a new intraday high and then closes down. And that, the stock market did on Thursday.
At one point in Thursday's session, in fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 120 points, reaching the 10,955 level -- a new high for the bull market that began in March 2009. Reclaiming the 11,000 level seemed like a sure thing.
And, then, the rally abruptly lost steam. By the close, the broad market had slipped into the loss column for the session -- though the Dow finished with a 5-point gain.
Dramatic as Thursday's reversal was, though, its bearishness -- in and of itself -- is probably of just short-term significance.
That, at least, is the argument made in the latest edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the classic textbook on technical chart formations. Written originally many decades ago by Robert Edwards and John Magee, this textbook was updated as part of the latest (ninth) edition by W. H. C. Bassetti, who is an adjunct professor of finance and economics at Golden Gate University.
What could very well make the difference for whether weakness in coming sessions turns into something more major is sentiment. If the mood quickly turns sour in the wake of that weakness, then the bull market might very well secure another lease on life.
But if, instead, investors and advisers still refuse to build up their cash positions in the face of any such weakness, then contrarian analysis at least will conclude that bigger losses are in store.
It's too early to tell how sentiment trends will unfold in coming sessions, of course. But it's worth noting that Thursday's key reversal day comes at a time when bullish sentiment is at high enough levels to be a source of concern.
In addition, Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, reported on Wednesday of this week that his firm's so-called "Crowd Sentiment Poll," which is a composite of a number of separate sentiment indicators, had just risen into the "Extreme Optimism" zone.
As recently as this past February, in contrast, Davis' "Crowd Sentiment Poll" had been in the "Extreme Pessimism" zone. So there's been a huge swing in sentiment in a very short period of time.
Unless there is an equally big movement to jump back off of the bullish bandwagon in coming days, Thursday's key reversal could very well turn into a decline that is of more than just short-term significance.
Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
Catching up with the small-caps
An ETF for U.S. small-cap stocks, iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund (IJR), set a fresh 52-week high on Friday and is trading at levels last seen right around Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.
Small and mid-sized stocks have outpaced large-cap shares measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by a wide margin so far in 2010, and since the March bottom last year.
The iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund was up 8.5% for the year-to-date period through March 12, while the SPDR S&P Mid Cap (MDY) gained 8.2%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added 3.6%.
With small and mid-cap stocks essentially unchanged from where they traded right before the Lehman meltdown, this recovery is “considered an important step for stocks and indexes that have fallen steeply in price,” said ConvergEx Group chief market strategist Nicholas Colas in a March 11 note.
“By recovering the entire amount of lost principal, the stock price is signaling that whatever fundamentals created the meltdown have been resolved,” he wrote. “If the asset can stay above this price, it becomes technical support for future moves higher.”
The outperformance of smaller and lower-quality stocks is typical in the first year of a bull market. So what tends to happen in the second year?
“Historically, small-cap stocks continue to beat large-caps, cyclical sectors outperform defensive ones, and a rising tide once again lifts all boats,” S&P Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall wrote in a March 5 report. “But while the direction remains the same, the magnitude is reduced.”
Chart watchers will be monitoring the S&P 500 and SPY to see if they can catch up with small-cap indexes.
“To think that the economy and corporate fundamentals have recovered sufficiently to merit the move is another matter,” Colas said. “At least the next data points — an FOMC meeting … and corporate earnings in April — are close at hand.”
Small and mid-sized stocks have outpaced large-cap shares measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by a wide margin so far in 2010, and since the March bottom last year.
The iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund was up 8.5% for the year-to-date period through March 12, while the SPDR S&P Mid Cap (MDY) gained 8.2%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added 3.6%.
With small and mid-cap stocks essentially unchanged from where they traded right before the Lehman meltdown, this recovery is “considered an important step for stocks and indexes that have fallen steeply in price,” said ConvergEx Group chief market strategist Nicholas Colas in a March 11 note.
“By recovering the entire amount of lost principal, the stock price is signaling that whatever fundamentals created the meltdown have been resolved,” he wrote. “If the asset can stay above this price, it becomes technical support for future moves higher.”
The outperformance of smaller and lower-quality stocks is typical in the first year of a bull market. So what tends to happen in the second year?
“Historically, small-cap stocks continue to beat large-caps, cyclical sectors outperform defensive ones, and a rising tide once again lifts all boats,” S&P Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall wrote in a March 5 report. “But while the direction remains the same, the magnitude is reduced.”
Chart watchers will be monitoring the S&P 500 and SPY to see if they can catch up with small-cap indexes.
“To think that the economy and corporate fundamentals have recovered sufficiently to merit the move is another matter,” Colas said. “At least the next data points — an FOMC meeting … and corporate earnings in April — are close at hand.”
Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why
The unemployment rate remains locked in a range that recalls the economic doldrums of the early 1980s. Housing is stuck in a ditch, with foreclosures rising. And consumers are still reluctant to part with the little cash they do have.
Yet the stock markets are partying like it's 2003, when hiring was brisk, real estate was booming, wallets were fat -- and the major stock indexes started a four-year rally that would double their value and push them to new heights just before the financial crisis hit.
Judging from stock prices alone, one would think the economy was poised for a roaring comeback. But the federal government plans to unplug the economic life-support programs that stimulated production, kept interest rates low and placed a thick cushion under the real estate market.
Some analysts see ample reason for caution in equities, with many economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, forecasting tepid growth in the near term.
"The market is as overvalued now as it was undervalued a year ago," said David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm. "There's a very high degree of complacency."
The incongruity of it all can be seen clearly in an analysis of price-to-earnings ratios, a gauge of how expensive stocks are relative to their performance.
Ratios in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are hovering about 13 percent above the average since 2005; a year ago, they were about 40 percent below the average. That suggests that investors are betting on robust earnings through the end of the year, a view that many economists do not embrace.
"The stock market has priced in a bit more than what we've got so far," said Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac. "We're due for a pause."
Recent rallies have been narrow, with a modest number of stocks reaching 52-week highs even when the broader market surged. There is a sense in some corners that stock prices will decline: investors are betting more on stocks' falling now than they have since July.
Mr. Hirsch, citing historical patterns, predicts a 20 to 30 percent dip in the markets before they can climb again. The Dow Jones industrial average is more than 60 percent above its lows a year ago, flirting with 11,000 for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis, though it remains more than 3,000 off its prerecession peak.
The S.& P. 500 is up nearly 75 percent from a year ago, and the Nasdaq is up nearly 90 percent.
The first part of this year had glittering reports on fourth-quarter earnings and mildly upbeat news on economic indicators like retail sales and orders for durable goods.
In response, the broad-based S.& P. 500 has climbed 4.6 percent this year. Autos, consumer electronics, regional banks and home builders -- all losers in 2009 -- have led the way. Banking stocks, which drove much of last year's rally, continue to surge, with many regional banks up more than 40 percent.
Even during some of the stock markets' better weeks, jitters have seemed to lurk just beneath the surface. The Dow rode a rare eight-day winning streak this month, but trading was light and day-to-day gains were small, casting doubt on the significance of the uptick.
During much of the financial crisis, traders clung to bond funds for safety. But as the appetite for risk has returned, investors have begun snapping up stocks: over the last several weeks, new cash has poured into American equity funds at a brisk pace, and mutual funds have shown particular strength.
Many market participants expect the momentum to continue, with stocks ending the year 10 to 20 percent higher. While few expect strong economic growth this year, investors believe that the recovery is intact and that earnings will continue to grow.
"A lot of people believe the government will just keep pumping money into this," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.
There are signs that some of investors' optimism may be excessive.
Interest rates, kept at historical lows by the Fed during the financial crisis, are starting to rise because of the flight from bonds and concern over rising debt, particularly that of the United States.
Standard mortgage rates hovered near 5 percent last week after auctions of seven-year Treasury notes were met with weak demand, sending yields higher. A sustained rise in interest rates would crimp growth by making borrowing more expensive for consumers, businesses and governments. It could also attract some investors away from equities and into bonds.
Another concern is the nation's intractable unemployment rate, which has hampered consumer spending and worsened a foreclosure crisis in the housing market. Employers are still not adding jobs, though the rate of job losses has declined in recent months, raising hopes that a turning point is at hand.
Consumer confidence has improved modestly from its low a year ago, but spending is still weak.
Some clarity may come to the market on Friday, when the government releases its monthly snapshot of the labor market. Forecasters expect the data to show 200,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7 percent.
When first-quarter earnings results begin trickling in next month, investors will be looking for signs that companies have put cost-cutting behind them and strengthened revenue.
"We've managed to at least temporarily suspend the financial crisis," Mr. Roberts said. "The question now is, 'You've gotten past the first act; what's the encore?'"
Yet the stock markets are partying like it's 2003, when hiring was brisk, real estate was booming, wallets were fat -- and the major stock indexes started a four-year rally that would double their value and push them to new heights just before the financial crisis hit.
Judging from stock prices alone, one would think the economy was poised for a roaring comeback. But the federal government plans to unplug the economic life-support programs that stimulated production, kept interest rates low and placed a thick cushion under the real estate market.
Some analysts see ample reason for caution in equities, with many economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, forecasting tepid growth in the near term.
"The market is as overvalued now as it was undervalued a year ago," said David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm. "There's a very high degree of complacency."
The incongruity of it all can be seen clearly in an analysis of price-to-earnings ratios, a gauge of how expensive stocks are relative to their performance.
Ratios in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are hovering about 13 percent above the average since 2005; a year ago, they were about 40 percent below the average. That suggests that investors are betting on robust earnings through the end of the year, a view that many economists do not embrace.
"The stock market has priced in a bit more than what we've got so far," said Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac. "We're due for a pause."
Recent rallies have been narrow, with a modest number of stocks reaching 52-week highs even when the broader market surged. There is a sense in some corners that stock prices will decline: investors are betting more on stocks' falling now than they have since July.
Mr. Hirsch, citing historical patterns, predicts a 20 to 30 percent dip in the markets before they can climb again. The Dow Jones industrial average is more than 60 percent above its lows a year ago, flirting with 11,000 for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis, though it remains more than 3,000 off its prerecession peak.
The S.& P. 500 is up nearly 75 percent from a year ago, and the Nasdaq is up nearly 90 percent.
The first part of this year had glittering reports on fourth-quarter earnings and mildly upbeat news on economic indicators like retail sales and orders for durable goods.
In response, the broad-based S.& P. 500 has climbed 4.6 percent this year. Autos, consumer electronics, regional banks and home builders -- all losers in 2009 -- have led the way. Banking stocks, which drove much of last year's rally, continue to surge, with many regional banks up more than 40 percent.
Even during some of the stock markets' better weeks, jitters have seemed to lurk just beneath the surface. The Dow rode a rare eight-day winning streak this month, but trading was light and day-to-day gains were small, casting doubt on the significance of the uptick.
During much of the financial crisis, traders clung to bond funds for safety. But as the appetite for risk has returned, investors have begun snapping up stocks: over the last several weeks, new cash has poured into American equity funds at a brisk pace, and mutual funds have shown particular strength.
Many market participants expect the momentum to continue, with stocks ending the year 10 to 20 percent higher. While few expect strong economic growth this year, investors believe that the recovery is intact and that earnings will continue to grow.
"A lot of people believe the government will just keep pumping money into this," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.
There are signs that some of investors' optimism may be excessive.
Interest rates, kept at historical lows by the Fed during the financial crisis, are starting to rise because of the flight from bonds and concern over rising debt, particularly that of the United States.
Standard mortgage rates hovered near 5 percent last week after auctions of seven-year Treasury notes were met with weak demand, sending yields higher. A sustained rise in interest rates would crimp growth by making borrowing more expensive for consumers, businesses and governments. It could also attract some investors away from equities and into bonds.
Another concern is the nation's intractable unemployment rate, which has hampered consumer spending and worsened a foreclosure crisis in the housing market. Employers are still not adding jobs, though the rate of job losses has declined in recent months, raising hopes that a turning point is at hand.
Consumer confidence has improved modestly from its low a year ago, but spending is still weak.
Some clarity may come to the market on Friday, when the government releases its monthly snapshot of the labor market. Forecasters expect the data to show 200,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7 percent.
When first-quarter earnings results begin trickling in next month, investors will be looking for signs that companies have put cost-cutting behind them and strengthened revenue.
"We've managed to at least temporarily suspend the financial crisis," Mr. Roberts said. "The question now is, 'You've gotten past the first act; what's the encore?'"
Sunday, March 28, 2010
三架马车之“中国远洋”
三架马车之“中国远洋”会否带来投资投机会？
背景A：
1、全球最大航运公司、营业额占丹麦全国GDP20%的巨鳄马士基出现成立105年以来历史上第一次年度亏损。
2、马士基撤走亚欧航运线
3、巴菲特反对浦项购大宇造船厂，称造船业的低潮期会维持一段时间，巴郡不会对竞投行动给予支持。
4、中国远洋受08金融危机打击出现巨亏。
5、中国远洋股价一直徘徊在低水平没有起色，市场先生比较悲观！
背景B：
1、中国远洋为世界第二大综合性航运企业，国内最大干散货运企业！实为质优企业！
2、国际贸易的主要运输工具为海洋运输，进入门槛不大，经验是最大的资本！
3、无论中国怎样转型，三架马车之出口不可没有！
背景C：财务报表各自研究
我的结论：股价仍然在反映当时的悲观情绪，但企业的质量没有变化，亏损只是外部因素造成，有投资机会！
1 个人判断航运恢复到2007-2008是必然事件，虽然时间不确定
2 （恕我愚昧，我做一个很傻的计算，用现股价比2007每股盈利，呵呵）
12.63/2.05 = 6.16，这玩意儿不能叫“市盈率”了，叫它模拟市盈率吧，呵呵。
在做一个，用目前股价比上2005-2008平均每股盈利，呵呵
12.63/ （（0.75+0.9+2.05+1.06）/4）= 10.61
3 从上面分析的结论，该公司股价并不是由绝对吸引力，但可以分析一下内容再长线持有
a 盈利能力和核心竞争力。长远看能不能给股东赚钱？是不是有“护城河”使自己
更有优势。（基本面分析）
b 对周期性行业而言，主要看价格是不是绝对有优势，个人认为如果a过关，那么并且价格在2.05 * 5 = 10.25以下，就可以适当参与，等业绩恢复到2007-08股价翻倍问题不大。（只要你用股市投资持续优良公司的必杀绝技，一字秘诀：
等！打死你也不卖，直到股价翻倍）
但愿我为我的每笔资金，都找到一个白头偕老的她。
我已经做到忽略指标只看企业了，我无法预测企业的业绩自然无法估计未来的指标，怎样作出买入决定？在你认定那是一家好企业的前提下，不断捕捉遇到危机的企业，毒奶期间我买上了伊利，08金融危机我买上中集集团，并没有选择买上茅台酒、云南白药！前段时间我买上了中国远洋（成本：12.8RMB），这些决定我并没有考虑它们未来的业绩将会怎样，各种指标我都没有计算过，我只知道这些是好企业未来无问题，市场先生因为悲观情绪给了我一个好价！
背景A：
1、全球最大航运公司、营业额占丹麦全国GDP20%的巨鳄马士基出现成立105年以来历史上第一次年度亏损。
2、马士基撤走亚欧航运线
3、巴菲特反对浦项购大宇造船厂，称造船业的低潮期会维持一段时间，巴郡不会对竞投行动给予支持。
4、中国远洋受08金融危机打击出现巨亏。
5、中国远洋股价一直徘徊在低水平没有起色，市场先生比较悲观！
背景B：
1、中国远洋为世界第二大综合性航运企业，国内最大干散货运企业！实为质优企业！
2、国际贸易的主要运输工具为海洋运输，进入门槛不大，经验是最大的资本！
3、无论中国怎样转型，三架马车之出口不可没有！
背景C：财务报表各自研究
我的结论：股价仍然在反映当时的悲观情绪，但企业的质量没有变化，亏损只是外部因素造成，有投资机会！
1 个人判断航运恢复到2007-2008是必然事件，虽然时间不确定
2 （恕我愚昧，我做一个很傻的计算，用现股价比2007每股盈利，呵呵）
12.63/2.05 = 6.16，这玩意儿不能叫“市盈率”了，叫它模拟市盈率吧，呵呵。
在做一个，用目前股价比上2005-2008平均每股盈利，呵呵
12.63/ （（0.75+0.9+2.05+1.06）/4）= 10.61
3 从上面分析的结论，该公司股价并不是由绝对吸引力，但可以分析一下内容再长线持有
a 盈利能力和核心竞争力。长远看能不能给股东赚钱？是不是有“护城河”使自己
更有优势。（基本面分析）
b 对周期性行业而言，主要看价格是不是绝对有优势，个人认为如果a过关，那么并且价格在2.05 * 5 = 10.25以下，就可以适当参与，等业绩恢复到2007-08股价翻倍问题不大。（只要你用股市投资持续优良公司的必杀绝技，一字秘诀：
等！打死你也不卖，直到股价翻倍）
但愿我为我的每笔资金，都找到一个白头偕老的她。
我已经做到忽略指标只看企业了，我无法预测企业的业绩自然无法估计未来的指标，怎样作出买入决定？在你认定那是一家好企业的前提下，不断捕捉遇到危机的企业，毒奶期间我买上了伊利，08金融危机我买上中集集团，并没有选择买上茅台酒、云南白药！前段时间我买上了中国远洋（成本：12.8RMB），这些决定我并没有考虑它们未来的业绩将会怎样，各种指标我都没有计算过，我只知道这些是好企业未来无问题，市场先生因为悲观情绪给了我一个好价！
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