买股票是一宗生意的一部分；市场总是在过度兴奋和过度悲观间摇摆，聪明的投资者是从过度悲观的人那里买来，卖给过度兴奋的人；你自己的表现远比证券的表现本身更能影响投资收益。
或许每个普通投资者都有赚钱的经历，但最终的盈利结果并不理想，很多人并不能通过股市来实现财富的持续增值。关键的问题就在于普通投资者喜欢在繁荣的牛市投资股票，不，是炒股。很多人不把投资股票当作一项投资，更不可能看作是一项生意。在许多投资人眼里，炒股就如同打麻将，他们也乐于来市场试试手气如何。因此，即使股价已经涨了3～5倍，但只要他们相信明天还会有一个涨停板（也许这就是最后一个涨停板了），他们还会勇于再持有一个晚上。等到第二天开盘，结果往往不是涨停板，而是不断下跌，甚至跌停。这个时候，上述投资人往往不会善罢甘休，他们非常恼火本来应该得到的馅饼又被市场先生抢走，因此，他们一定要等到手里的股票再涨一个涨停板才卖出，不过市场先生可不是那么善良的。最终，市场先生留给多数投资人的往往只有遗憾和懊悔。
投资收益是购买价格的函数，你买得高，收益率就低;不管多么小心，你无法不犯错误，只能恪守安全边际。也就是说，不管股票多么来劲绝不高买，你才能控制住犯错的后果。
要想获取长期高回报的收益，一定要保证价格足够便宜。举个例子，我知道很多风险投资商或股权投资人在购买潜在公司的股权时，其入股价格往往在3～5倍市盈率，甚至更低。但当股权流通到一级市场时，卖给普通投资人就变成了30～50倍，甚至更高。如果等到二级市场买入，那么，普通投资人花的价格可能高达80～100倍。很明显，对比之下，最先入股的机构投资者获得更大的收益。而在二级市场的投资者如果仍然要买入的话，那他简直就是在干傻事。显然，从一般角度而言，收益率是市盈率的倒数。买入的市盈率越高，往往意味着收益率越低。除非你认为目前公司价格严重低估，否则，你没有任何必要用更高的市盈率来二级市场购买股票。当然，我们并不否定在二级市场的投资机会，但这种投资机会往往更多的是来自熊市阶段。所以，格雷厄姆认为，牛市才是普通投资者亏钱的主要原因。因为繁荣的牛市看起来是最吸引人的时候，但往往股价也数倍于熊市阶段，因此，购买牛市阶段的股票，投资者需要承担更大的风险。
对股票价格要斤斤计较，要像超市购物，不要像买化妆品;真正重大的损失总是在投资者忘了问“多少钱”之后；高增长不等同于高盈利。上涨的股票风险增加而不是减少，下跌的股票风险减少而不是增加。
对股票价格斤斤计较，不是说当股价被低估的时候还要延迟买入。更为确切的说法是，我们要在详知公司内在价值的时候，学会货比三家，想方设法购买物美价廉的公司，而不是随意买卖股票。所以，购买性价比最高的股票的最好办法往往是逆势而为。当多数人退出市场时，当很多人闭口不谈股票之时，才是较好的买入时机。但投资最大的难点在于杜绝盲从心理，保持独立判断能力和个人勇气。敢于冒天下之大不韪，买入心仪的股票，这份勇气和决心绝不是常人能有的，优秀的投资人往往具有非凡的勇气和淡定的心态。
战胜市场平均水平非常难，如果你还是想试一试的话，那么，第一，你要有一个内在合理的策略;第二，这个策略得是市场上不流行的。战胜市场平均收益水平有可能但很难，普通投资者没必要有此追求。
战胜市场是一个梦想，虽然对很多人而言，确实比较难以实现，但并不表示没有机会。其实，是否战胜市场并不重要，尤其对普通投资者而言，只要能够跑赢通胀水平已经很不错。从长期收益率来看，一个投资者能够实现复利收益率为6％，那么，相对来说，他买的资产大概在16倍的市盈率。如果想追求更高的收益，那么只有保证市盈率更低。
黄金不是天然的对抗通胀工具，1935年到1970年金价表现不如存款。
黄金很自然不是对抗通胀的工具。有历史数据表明，无论是在美国还是在中国，黄金的长期收益居然跑不赢通胀水平。有人曾举例说明，在国初期，5两黄金可以买到一套四合院，但现在5两黄金最多买到一套进口组合沙发。现在有人倡言投资黄金，那不过也是一种见到黄金大涨之后的肾上腺激素分泌过度的行为，并没有进行过理性的分析和内在价值的评估。在价值投资者看来，任何商品都有内在价值。即使针对一个普通白领，我们也可以根据他未来的职业年限和现有的资产进行未来现金流的折现，来计算其内在价值。
投机不是不行，但致命的威胁是投机却自以为投资。投机时就要像理智存的赌徒，只带100美元去赌场，把棺材本锁在家中保险箱里。
投机就是赌博，去赌博肯定不能带上全部身家，否则就是赌命。我们不主张投机和赌博，但并不能阻止某些人热衷于此。所以，小赌怡情是可以的，但千万不要押上全部身家性命。当然，在某些人看来，或许投资也是投机，好比在价值投资者看来敢于在熊市出来是一种投资行为，但在市场大多数人看来，在熊市大
家准备撤退的时候去买入却是一种博傻行为。
不可否认，市场流行的盈利模式千奇百怪，常人自然无法分辨，价值投资也好，组合管理与技术分析也罢，或许都有盈利的机会。然而，从历史数据来看，似乎只有价值投资者才拥有长期不败的业绩。在价值投资者眼里，股权投资并非炒股，既不用每天敲打键盘，短线来回交易;也不用关注主力资金的进出流向，更不用考虑用方差来描述投资组合的风险。
价值投资者认为，一切投资的关键都源于公司内在价值与价格的关系。
Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over
There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over
There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
[See how to tell if you're keeping up with the middle class.]
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
[See how one family is rebuilding after losing their fortune.]
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
[See 21 things we're learning to live without.]
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good.
[See how to tell if you're keeping up with the middle class.]
Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, businesses and consumers remain gloomy, and many families are struggling to get by on reduced income. "It's a recovery, but it sure doesn't feel like it," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Here are five things that still must happen for a robust recovery to kick in.
Banks need to lend more. The government's emergency measures helped stabilize the financial system, but banks haven't taken the next step and increased lending. With trillions in bad loans still on their books, many banks continue to hoard cash and turn down loan applications. That depresses the market for homes, cars, appliances and other costly items that many consumers can't pay for in cash. It also squeezes small businesses, which often rely on credit to meet payroll, order supplies, invest and grow. Behravesh predicts that lending could bottom out and start to pick up by late this year or early next year--although that would probably be the point at which the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates to subdue inflation. A few things that will signal improvements in the credit market: a drop in the required down payment for well-qualified home buyers, which is typically 30 percent or more now; increased availability of car loans for subprime borrowers with a credit score below 680; and banks' willingness to increase their customers' credit-card limits, if asked.
Incomes need to rise. Median income was stagnant for about a decade leading up to the recession, and it probably fell 5 percent or more over the past couple of years. Some economists worry that reduced incomes could indefinitely curtail consumer spending, which has long fueled the U.S. economy. A glut of unemployed workers will keep wages low in many industries for years. And since many families have lost wealth because of falling home values or declining investment portfolios, or both, they need to save more to prepare for retirement. That leaves less money to buy stuff. The good news is that inflation is low and energy prices are stable, which helps stretch a dollar.
[See how one family is rebuilding after losing their fortune.]
Housing needs to stabilize. Most of the pain is probably in the past, but home values continue to erode in many regions. Moody's Economy.com predicts that house prices, which have fallen more than 30 percent from their 2006 peaks, could still fall another 5 to 10 percent through the end of this year. Since many families still have the majority of their wealth invested in their homes, the economy can't really get healthy again as long as such a huge asset is falling in value. The end of the federal home-buyer tax credit and other government programs throughout the year will test whether the housing market can stand on its own. If it can't, the government could step back in, but that would only signal further weakness in a sector that accounts for more than 15 percent of the economy. The silver lining is that falling prices make it a great time to buy, for those with enough cash or the ability to get a mortgage.
Confidence needs to rebound. Americans remain gloomy, with most consumer-confidence surveys showing only modest improvements from the low points hit during the recession. The most obvious reasons are the weak job market and a sense that the recovery will be weak at best. Businesses are downbeat too, with CEOs worried that strapped consumers will put their wallets away. That makes them reluctant to hire, which perpetuates the malaise. Confidence is a perplexing psychological phenomenon, and economists aren't sure what it will take to make consumers upbeat enough to propel a robust recovery. But once home prices stop falling, jobs seem more secure, and people feel like the bloodletting is over, that will certainly help.
[See 21 things we're learning to live without.]
Jobs need to return. The availability--or lack--of jobs is the single biggest factor in the economy, and unfortunately, a pickup in hiring is likely to be painfully slow. Many of the 8 million lost jobs are probably gone forever, as manufacturers downsize their operations and many companies substitute technology or cheaper foreign labor for American workers. The unemployment rate, which is 9.7 percent now, might even rise throughout the year, as workers who gave up looking for jobs try again and the labor force swells.
Still, economists recognize some familiar patterns in the job market that suggest things are finally getting better instead of worse. Corporate profits are strong, thanks to aggressive cost-cutting over the past two years. That means companies can afford to hire workers, if they decide to. And productivity gains have hit record levels recently, which means companies are extremely efficient; if demand picks up, they may only be able to meet it through increased staffing. A good indicator of real improvement would be several consecutive months of six-figure job gains, due to permanent hiring and not temporary factors like the census or weather-related events. "The recent resumption of employment growth will be sustained and gather strength over time," insists T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. That's not the kind of roaring endorsement most Americans want to hear, but it suggests that sooner or later, the recovery in your neighborhood will catch up with the one that economists see in the data.
Rubin says he learned late of Citi's risky bets
Robert Rubin, a senior adviser to Citigroup Inc. at the time of its deep losses from subprime mortgages, said Wednesday that he learned belatedly that Citi had $43 billion in high-risk securities on its books.
"I do not recall knowing before September 2007" that the bank had held onto the investments composed of repackaged mortgage bonds, Rubin said. In November 2007, Citigroup publicly estimated it would lose $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter that year from those securities.
Rubin, a former Treasury secretary, is testifying to a panel investigating the roots of the financial crisis. He and other former Citigroup executives have been sharply criticized for allowing heavy investments in high-risk securities. Citi was a major subprime lender.
Former Citigroup CEO Charles Prince, who resigned in November 2007 when the bank acknowledged stunning losses from subprime mortgage securities, began his testimony with a mea culpa.
"Let me start by saying I'm sorry," Prince said at the second day of hearings by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. He is "deeply sorry," he said, for the failure of Citigroup's management, starting with him, to foresee the crisis that wreaked devastation on the U.S. economy and ordinary Americans.
Rubin said "We all bear responsibility for not recognizing this, and I deeply regret that."
Critics have said Rubin, with his vast experience on Wall Street and as Treasury chief in the Clinton administration, should have picked up on the warning signs of the crisis and taken a more active role in preventing Citigroup's debacle.
New York-based Citigroup was one of the hardest-hit banks during the credit crisis and the recession. It received $45 billion in federal bailout money -- one of the biggest rescues in the government's program.
As borrowers defaulted, Citibank's losses reached nearly $30 billion on some portions of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt.
"Those losses were a substantial cause of the bank's financial problems and led to the assistance from the U.S. government," Rubin said in his testimony.
Prince said he wasn't aware of decisions being made on the bank's trading desks to keep on its books the "super senior" CDOs. Still, he says, given that they were widely perceived as having a low risk of default, "it is hard for me to fault the traders who made the decisions."
"Regrettably, we were not able to prevent the losses that occurred, but it was not a result of management or board inattention or a lack of proper reporting of information," Prince said. He said multiple meetings were held to inform board members of developing problems and to solicit their advice.
Rubin said he was "confident" that Citi executives "believed in good faith" that their superiors didn't need to examine the bank's heavy holdings of the securities because they were triple-AAA rated and appeared safe from default.
The inquiry commission was created by Congress to delve into the causes of the financial crisis. The three sessions this week are focused on high-risk mortgage lending and the way trillions in risky mortgage debt was spread throughout the financial system. The goal is to provide a firsthand accounting of decisions that inflated a mortgage bubble and triggered the financial crisis.
Citigroup is being examined as a case study because it was heavily involved in each stage of the process. The bank was a major subprime lender through its subsidiary CitiFinancial. Other divisions of Citigroup pooled those loans and loans purchased from other mortgage companies and sold the income streams to investors.
When Citigroup announced the estimated losses of up to $11 billion in November 2007, Prince resigned, Win Bischoff became acting CEO, and Rubin stepped in as chairman, helping Citi raise billions in capital to shore up its sinking finances.
Rubin came to Citigroup as a "senior counselor" in 1999. He had worked for 25 years at Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs & Co., rising to co-CEO, before becoming President Bill Clinton's chief economic adviser in 1993 and Treasury secretary two years later.
"I do not recall knowing before September 2007" that the bank had held onto the investments composed of repackaged mortgage bonds, Rubin said. In November 2007, Citigroup publicly estimated it would lose $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter that year from those securities.
Rubin, a former Treasury secretary, is testifying to a panel investigating the roots of the financial crisis. He and other former Citigroup executives have been sharply criticized for allowing heavy investments in high-risk securities. Citi was a major subprime lender.
Former Citigroup CEO Charles Prince, who resigned in November 2007 when the bank acknowledged stunning losses from subprime mortgage securities, began his testimony with a mea culpa.
"Let me start by saying I'm sorry," Prince said at the second day of hearings by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. He is "deeply sorry," he said, for the failure of Citigroup's management, starting with him, to foresee the crisis that wreaked devastation on the U.S. economy and ordinary Americans.
Rubin said "We all bear responsibility for not recognizing this, and I deeply regret that."
Critics have said Rubin, with his vast experience on Wall Street and as Treasury chief in the Clinton administration, should have picked up on the warning signs of the crisis and taken a more active role in preventing Citigroup's debacle.
New York-based Citigroup was one of the hardest-hit banks during the credit crisis and the recession. It received $45 billion in federal bailout money -- one of the biggest rescues in the government's program.
As borrowers defaulted, Citibank's losses reached nearly $30 billion on some portions of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt.
"Those losses were a substantial cause of the bank's financial problems and led to the assistance from the U.S. government," Rubin said in his testimony.
Prince said he wasn't aware of decisions being made on the bank's trading desks to keep on its books the "super senior" CDOs. Still, he says, given that they were widely perceived as having a low risk of default, "it is hard for me to fault the traders who made the decisions."
"Regrettably, we were not able to prevent the losses that occurred, but it was not a result of management or board inattention or a lack of proper reporting of information," Prince said. He said multiple meetings were held to inform board members of developing problems and to solicit their advice.
Rubin said he was "confident" that Citi executives "believed in good faith" that their superiors didn't need to examine the bank's heavy holdings of the securities because they were triple-AAA rated and appeared safe from default.
The inquiry commission was created by Congress to delve into the causes of the financial crisis. The three sessions this week are focused on high-risk mortgage lending and the way trillions in risky mortgage debt was spread throughout the financial system. The goal is to provide a firsthand accounting of decisions that inflated a mortgage bubble and triggered the financial crisis.
Citigroup is being examined as a case study because it was heavily involved in each stage of the process. The bank was a major subprime lender through its subsidiary CitiFinancial. Other divisions of Citigroup pooled those loans and loans purchased from other mortgage companies and sold the income streams to investors.
When Citigroup announced the estimated losses of up to $11 billion in November 2007, Prince resigned, Win Bischoff became acting CEO, and Rubin stepped in as chairman, helping Citi raise billions in capital to shore up its sinking finances.
Rubin came to Citigroup as a "senior counselor" in 1999. He had worked for 25 years at Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs & Co., rising to co-CEO, before becoming President Bill Clinton's chief economic adviser in 1993 and Treasury secretary two years later.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
經濟數據回暖 量化寬鬆政策退出日近
瑞士信貸首席中國經濟學家陶冬於其博客發表的最 新文章中分析，各國經濟數據透露出成長前景的改善，使市場對主權債務的疑慮暫時淡去，而在美國就業明顯 改善、市場利率上揚之下，美聯儲可能將很快調整量化寬鬆的政策措施。
以下是陶冬博客文章全文。
增長前景的改善，取代了對主權債務違約的恐懼，成為市場的新焦點。資金加速流出國債市場，進入風險資產。套利交易日熾，商品價格回勇。歐元稍有喘定，日元匯率接力下滑。筆者認為，G3國家的經濟增長勢頭的確在加強，但是主權債務危機則不過是暫時被市場遺忘。
美國錄得超強勁的ISM數字。非農業就業增長雖然略低過預期，並被人口普查所帶來的短期工作所拔高，但是這仍不失為一個標誌性的進展，平均工作時間及單 位時間工資均有所上升，相信美國的就業市場已經進入了擴張期。儘管消費依然低迷，但是企業投資已大幅增加，去年過度裁員的企業也開始進行恢復性招工。由於就業明顯轉強，加上市場利率上揚，美國聯儲勢必要對目前的量化寬鬆政策作出新的交代，相信“相當一段時間”的字眼會在央行4月底例會後的聲明中消失。
近期日元疲弱，與其它貨幣兌美元的走勢不相稱，與最近改善中的經濟數據不相稱。筆者看來，有三個原因導致日元貶值：1）3月底年結前企業資金班師回國，當這部分資金流入消失後，日元補跌；2）日本銀行的量化寬鬆政策加碼，與其它央行的貨幣政策臨近“退出 ”相背離；3）日元取代美元成為套利交易的主要資金來源（funding currency）,增大了日元的沽壓。筆者個人認為，第三個因素的影響在加大，值得特別關注。
本周是央行例會的密集期。週二澳大利亞估計會加 息25基點，週三日本銀行、週四歐洲央行及英格蘭銀行 開會，不過利率不會有變。週一美國二手樓銷售環比預 計-0.2% vs -7.6%。
以下是陶冬博客文章全文。
增長前景的改善，取代了對主權債務違約的恐懼，成為市場的新焦點。資金加速流出國債市場，進入風險資產。套利交易日熾，商品價格回勇。歐元稍有喘定，日元匯率接力下滑。筆者認為，G3國家的經濟增長勢頭的確在加強，但是主權債務危機則不過是暫時被市場遺忘。
美國錄得超強勁的ISM數字。非農業就業增長雖然略低過預期，並被人口普查所帶來的短期工作所拔高，但是這仍不失為一個標誌性的進展，平均工作時間及單 位時間工資均有所上升，相信美國的就業市場已經進入了擴張期。儘管消費依然低迷，但是企業投資已大幅增加，去年過度裁員的企業也開始進行恢復性招工。由於就業明顯轉強，加上市場利率上揚，美國聯儲勢必要對目前的量化寬鬆政策作出新的交代，相信“相當一段時間”的字眼會在央行4月底例會後的聲明中消失。
近期日元疲弱，與其它貨幣兌美元的走勢不相稱，與最近改善中的經濟數據不相稱。筆者看來，有三個原因導致日元貶值：1）3月底年結前企業資金班師回國，當這部分資金流入消失後，日元補跌；2）日本銀行的量化寬鬆政策加碼，與其它央行的貨幣政策臨近“退出 ”相背離；3）日元取代美元成為套利交易的主要資金來源（funding currency）,增大了日元的沽壓。筆者個人認為，第三個因素的影響在加大，值得特別關注。
本周是央行例會的密集期。週二澳大利亞估計會加 息25基點，週三日本銀行、週四歐洲央行及英格蘭銀行 開會，不過利率不會有變。週一美國二手樓銷售環比預 計-0.2% vs -7.6%。
Monday, April 5, 2010
分享集:狭颈瓶中糖果
语云“现金为王”，道尽了现金的威力。
上市公司的账目，有没有被灌水，谁也不能保证。账目中几乎每一个项目都有可能造假，只有一个项目例外——现金。难怪投资者对拥有巨额现金，完全没有负债的公司，信心满满。
现金充沛的公司，在金融风暴中，轻易化险为夷，拥有这类公司的股票，可以高枕无忧。
但从做生意的观点看，坐拥大量现金长期不动用，有违股东投资于公司之原意。
一家公司，手头能够持有巨额现金，必然是历年盈利丰厚，日积月累而成的。公司掌舵人立下之汗马功劳，股东应激赏。
公司赚钱固然重要，但同样重要的是将所赚到的钱分发给股东。投资的整个过程由三个环节组成：
1. 投入资金；
2. 赚取利润；
3. 分红。
如果公司把赚到的钱长期存放在公司不分给股东，等于没有完成投资过程。
公司的所有资产，包括现金，当然都是属于全体股东的。长期将钱存放银行，又不进行投资，对大小股东都有欠公允。
小孩子对糖果总是贪得无厌，如果任由取食，恐有碍健康。为了节制小孩子食糖过多，大人把糖果储存在狭颈的大肚玻璃瓶中，小孩伸手入瓶，每次只可拿一粒，如果他贪多，握满一把，则拳头大，瓶颈小，就无法把手抽出来。
如此一来，小孩对瓶中的糖果，看得到却吃不到，只有猛呑口水的份儿。那种无法满足食欲的滋味，真不好受。
小孩的感受，正是多金公司股东的感受。
多金公司3选择
多金公司，如何应用过剩资金，有三个选择：
第一个选择：积极寻找新的投资机会，以提高盈利，这是上策。
例如:拥有1亿2000万令吉现金的格林尼(Glenealy)积极开拓新油棕园，拥有3亿令吉现金的红筹股星泉兴建新厂，使产能倍增，拥有2亿3000万令吉的鹏尼迪(Plenitude)，积极增购地皮，补充地库；拥有净现金近7000万令吉的建筑股亿成控股(Melati)积极在雪隆买地皮，俾将业务多元化至产业发展；握有1亿7500万令吉的金兴投资于基金；握有净现金5000万令吉的KESM雄心万丈，要将该公司发展为世界级的电子测试公司。
新投资明智
这些投资都有提高公司未来盈利的潜能，积极应用现金进行新投资乃明智。
第二个选择：通过派发高股息、特别股息或回退资本，将过剩现金还给股东，这是中策，却是最合算的做法。
拥有3亿令吉现金的中钢(CSC Steel)，拥有1亿2000万令吉的PIE；拥有4000万令吉现金的纬钜(Wellcall)；拥有1亿2500万令吉的速远(Zhulian)，都将超过60%的盈利，通过发高股息回馈股东，大受股东欢迎。
第三个选择：长期将巨额现金存放银行，派发微不足道的股息。如一些小型种植公司的作法，此为下策。
持有巨额现金的公司，如果经过5年仍无法找到适当的投资，而本行已饱和，没有扩展业务的空间，何不考虑将资金退回给股东，由股东自己去寻找投资机会，岂不更好？这样做，相信大小股东，都会无任欢迎。
对于投资大众来说，现金多，派息少的公司的股票，有如鸡肋——食之无味，弃之可惜。明知股票价值被低估，却对买进与否，难以抉择，那种无可奈何的感觉，实令人沮丧。
上市公司的账目，有没有被灌水，谁也不能保证。账目中几乎每一个项目都有可能造假，只有一个项目例外——现金。难怪投资者对拥有巨额现金，完全没有负债的公司，信心满满。
现金充沛的公司，在金融风暴中，轻易化险为夷，拥有这类公司的股票，可以高枕无忧。
但从做生意的观点看，坐拥大量现金长期不动用，有违股东投资于公司之原意。
一家公司，手头能够持有巨额现金，必然是历年盈利丰厚，日积月累而成的。公司掌舵人立下之汗马功劳，股东应激赏。
公司赚钱固然重要，但同样重要的是将所赚到的钱分发给股东。投资的整个过程由三个环节组成：
1. 投入资金；
2. 赚取利润；
3. 分红。
如果公司把赚到的钱长期存放在公司不分给股东，等于没有完成投资过程。
公司的所有资产，包括现金，当然都是属于全体股东的。长期将钱存放银行，又不进行投资，对大小股东都有欠公允。
小孩子对糖果总是贪得无厌，如果任由取食，恐有碍健康。为了节制小孩子食糖过多，大人把糖果储存在狭颈的大肚玻璃瓶中，小孩伸手入瓶，每次只可拿一粒，如果他贪多，握满一把，则拳头大，瓶颈小，就无法把手抽出来。
如此一来，小孩对瓶中的糖果，看得到却吃不到，只有猛呑口水的份儿。那种无法满足食欲的滋味，真不好受。
小孩的感受，正是多金公司股东的感受。
多金公司3选择
多金公司，如何应用过剩资金，有三个选择：
第一个选择：积极寻找新的投资机会，以提高盈利，这是上策。
例如:拥有1亿2000万令吉现金的格林尼(Glenealy)积极开拓新油棕园，拥有3亿令吉现金的红筹股星泉兴建新厂，使产能倍增，拥有2亿3000万令吉的鹏尼迪(Plenitude)，积极增购地皮，补充地库；拥有净现金近7000万令吉的建筑股亿成控股(Melati)积极在雪隆买地皮，俾将业务多元化至产业发展；握有1亿7500万令吉的金兴投资于基金；握有净现金5000万令吉的KESM雄心万丈，要将该公司发展为世界级的电子测试公司。
新投资明智
这些投资都有提高公司未来盈利的潜能，积极应用现金进行新投资乃明智。
第二个选择：通过派发高股息、特别股息或回退资本，将过剩现金还给股东，这是中策，却是最合算的做法。
拥有3亿令吉现金的中钢(CSC Steel)，拥有1亿2000万令吉的PIE；拥有4000万令吉现金的纬钜(Wellcall)；拥有1亿2500万令吉的速远(Zhulian)，都将超过60%的盈利，通过发高股息回馈股东，大受股东欢迎。
第三个选择：长期将巨额现金存放银行，派发微不足道的股息。如一些小型种植公司的作法，此为下策。
持有巨额现金的公司，如果经过5年仍无法找到适当的投资，而本行已饱和，没有扩展业务的空间，何不考虑将资金退回给股东，由股东自己去寻找投资机会，岂不更好？这样做，相信大小股东，都会无任欢迎。
对于投资大众来说，现金多，派息少的公司的股票，有如鸡肋——食之无味，弃之可惜。明知股票价值被低估，却对买进与否，难以抉择，那种无可奈何的感觉，实令人沮丧。
Friday, April 2, 2010
Should You Sell in April and Go Away?
Should you try to get a head start on those who are planning "sell in May and go away?"
If so, then you will be looking for an opportunity to sell your stocks in April and go to cash, thereby beating the many investors who will instead wait until a month from now.
But before you rush to sell everything, bear in mind that the odds of success are quite low. Stock market timers in general have very poor success rates, rarely doing better over the long term than simply buying and holding. Why would we think that they can do any better timing their entries and exits in October and April than in any other month of the year?
Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
And over the past eight years, one of the two market timing services that I monitor that regularly second-guess the "Sell in May and Go Away" system has significantly increased that seasonal pattern's performance. While the other one has not improved on the Halloween Indicator, it at least hasn't done appreciably worse -- and has still beaten a buy-and-hold strategy.
If you are not familiar with "Selling in May and Go Away," you may know by its other name: The Halloween Indicator.
According to a comprehensive review of its historical legitimacy that appeared in the December 2002 issue of the prestigious academic journal, American Economic Review, this pattern has existed historically in 36 of 37 countries studied. In each of those countries, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact, the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months. That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
To be sure, the results of this study are based on long-term averages, and there have been many individual years in which the overall pattern did not hold up. Several such exceptions came during the recent bear market, for example, when the winter months from November 2007 through April 2008, as well as from November 2008 through April 2009, saw the stock market buck the favorable seasonality and fall sharply.
Nevertheless, the "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy has more than made up for these and other missteps and therefore is in the rarefied ranks of those select few market timing systems that truly have worked over the long term.
But, not willing to leave well enough alone, two market timing services I monitor have for a number of years tried to second guess the exact days on which a follower of this seasonal pattern would enter and exit the market. The first is the Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch, and the other is Sy Harding's Street Smart Report, edited by Sy Harding.
Both pursue surprisingly similar modifications to this basic seasonal pattern: Each relies on a technical indicator known as MACD to pinpoint the precise day on which they should get back into the market at the beginning of the six-month seasonal period, as well as when to get out at the end of that period. (MACD, of course, stands for moving average convergence divergence. It is a short-term momentum indicator, created several decades ago by Gerald Appel, editor of the Systems & Forecasts advisory service. It compares the relative movements of several moving averages of different lengths.)
Sometimes the modifications recommended by Harding and Hirsch are quite minor. In 2004, for example, Hirsch's version of this seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 index re-entered the market on Oct. 28, just three days before it otherwise would. But in other years the differences have been quite significant.
The Hulbert Financial Digest has data for both market timers' modifications of the Halloween Indicator back to mid-2002, eight years ago. The HFD calculates their returns on the assumption that, when they are invested in stocks, they earn the return of the Wilshire 5000 Index; otherwise they are assumed to be invested in 90-day Treasury bills.
To put these newsletters' success into context, consider that since mid-2002, a buy-and-hold has produced a 3.4% annualized return. A purely mechanical application of the Halloween Indicator (automatically entering the market on Halloween and exiting on May Day) would have produced a 4.3% annualized return. Note that this 4.3% return beats the market by even more on a risk-adjusted basis, since it was produced with half the risk.
Now consider the performance of Harding's modification of the Halloween Indicator: It produced a 6.1% return (annualized) over the same period, or 1.8 percentage points per year more than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern, and 2.7 percentage points ahead of a buy-and-hold.
In fact, this performance is good enough to place Harding's version of the Halloween Indicator in 13th place for performance since mid 2002, out of the 132 timing strategies the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period.
To be sure, Hirsch's modification of the Halloween Indicator performed less well, producing a 3.9% annualized return. Though that is less than the 4.3% return of the pure version of the Halloween Indicator, note that it is still better than buying and holding.
What about this April? To be informed when these two newsletters actually trigger their buy signals, of course, you will need to subscribe to their services.
But one way in which their MACD-based systems are likely to trigger an early sell signal (but not the only way) is if the market is strong for a week or two and then quickly drops back.
If that happens, traders interested in taking the rest of the spring and summer off from stressing about the market may want to consider going to cash.
If so, then you will be looking for an opportunity to sell your stocks in April and go to cash, thereby beating the many investors who will instead wait until a month from now.
But before you rush to sell everything, bear in mind that the odds of success are quite low. Stock market timers in general have very poor success rates, rarely doing better over the long term than simply buying and holding. Why would we think that they can do any better timing their entries and exits in October and April than in any other month of the year?
Well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
And over the past eight years, one of the two market timing services that I monitor that regularly second-guess the "Sell in May and Go Away" system has significantly increased that seasonal pattern's performance. While the other one has not improved on the Halloween Indicator, it at least hasn't done appreciably worse -- and has still beaten a buy-and-hold strategy.
If you are not familiar with "Selling in May and Go Away," you may know by its other name: The Halloween Indicator.
According to a comprehensive review of its historical legitimacy that appeared in the December 2002 issue of the prestigious academic journal, American Economic Review, this pattern has existed historically in 36 of 37 countries studied. In each of those countries, average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months").
In fact, the study found, the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months. That implies that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk -- a winning combination that would show up in a much improved risk-adjusted performance.
To be sure, the results of this study are based on long-term averages, and there have been many individual years in which the overall pattern did not hold up. Several such exceptions came during the recent bear market, for example, when the winter months from November 2007 through April 2008, as well as from November 2008 through April 2009, saw the stock market buck the favorable seasonality and fall sharply.
Nevertheless, the "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy has more than made up for these and other missteps and therefore is in the rarefied ranks of those select few market timing systems that truly have worked over the long term.
But, not willing to leave well enough alone, two market timing services I monitor have for a number of years tried to second guess the exact days on which a follower of this seasonal pattern would enter and exit the market. The first is the Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch, and the other is Sy Harding's Street Smart Report, edited by Sy Harding.
Both pursue surprisingly similar modifications to this basic seasonal pattern: Each relies on a technical indicator known as MACD to pinpoint the precise day on which they should get back into the market at the beginning of the six-month seasonal period, as well as when to get out at the end of that period. (MACD, of course, stands for moving average convergence divergence. It is a short-term momentum indicator, created several decades ago by Gerald Appel, editor of the Systems & Forecasts advisory service. It compares the relative movements of several moving averages of different lengths.)
Sometimes the modifications recommended by Harding and Hirsch are quite minor. In 2004, for example, Hirsch's version of this seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 index re-entered the market on Oct. 28, just three days before it otherwise would. But in other years the differences have been quite significant.
The Hulbert Financial Digest has data for both market timers' modifications of the Halloween Indicator back to mid-2002, eight years ago. The HFD calculates their returns on the assumption that, when they are invested in stocks, they earn the return of the Wilshire 5000 Index; otherwise they are assumed to be invested in 90-day Treasury bills.
To put these newsletters' success into context, consider that since mid-2002, a buy-and-hold has produced a 3.4% annualized return. A purely mechanical application of the Halloween Indicator (automatically entering the market on Halloween and exiting on May Day) would have produced a 4.3% annualized return. Note that this 4.3% return beats the market by even more on a risk-adjusted basis, since it was produced with half the risk.
Now consider the performance of Harding's modification of the Halloween Indicator: It produced a 6.1% return (annualized) over the same period, or 1.8 percentage points per year more than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern, and 2.7 percentage points ahead of a buy-and-hold.
In fact, this performance is good enough to place Harding's version of the Halloween Indicator in 13th place for performance since mid 2002, out of the 132 timing strategies the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period.
To be sure, Hirsch's modification of the Halloween Indicator performed less well, producing a 3.9% annualized return. Though that is less than the 4.3% return of the pure version of the Halloween Indicator, note that it is still better than buying and holding.
What about this April? To be informed when these two newsletters actually trigger their buy signals, of course, you will need to subscribe to their services.
But one way in which their MACD-based systems are likely to trigger an early sell signal (but not the only way) is if the market is strong for a week or two and then quickly drops back.
If that happens, traders interested in taking the rest of the spring and summer off from stressing about the market may want to consider going to cash.
Next Meltdown Will Be Driven by "Big Collapses in Emerging Markets," Johnson Says
With Greece's rescue plan in jeopardy as bonds fall, nations' ability to pay back debts are raising concerns around the world. Of course, in this case, European Central Bank and Greece officials were trumpeting optimism.
But Greece needs a "much more dramatic fiscal program, which is going to be awfully painful and I doubt that will work politically, or debt restructuring. And no one wants to talk about debt structuring yet," says our guest Simon Johnson, an economics professor at MIT and former research director for the IMF.
Is America the next Greece?
With America's debt rising (as Aaron discussed earlier this week with budget hawk David Walker), it's only natural to wonder if America is headed down a similar Greek path. "Absolutely not," Johnson tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip.
America's debt is denominated in dollars that we control, Simon notes, unlike Greece's fate that's tied to the European Union. With the right tax reform, the U.S. can steer clear of a debt crisis, adds Johnson, co-author of "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown." The new book chronicles the rise of concentrated financial power and its threat to our economic well-being.
So what's the next shoe to drop?
Hint: Markets that are getting too hot now. "The next crisis, the next meltdown I think will be driven by some big collapses in emerging markets including China," Johnson says.
But Greece needs a "much more dramatic fiscal program, which is going to be awfully painful and I doubt that will work politically, or debt restructuring. And no one wants to talk about debt structuring yet," says our guest Simon Johnson, an economics professor at MIT and former research director for the IMF.
Is America the next Greece?
With America's debt rising (as Aaron discussed earlier this week with budget hawk David Walker), it's only natural to wonder if America is headed down a similar Greek path. "Absolutely not," Johnson tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip.
America's debt is denominated in dollars that we control, Simon notes, unlike Greece's fate that's tied to the European Union. With the right tax reform, the U.S. can steer clear of a debt crisis, adds Johnson, co-author of "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown." The new book chronicles the rise of concentrated financial power and its threat to our economic well-being.
So what's the next shoe to drop?
Hint: Markets that are getting too hot now. "The next crisis, the next meltdown I think will be driven by some big collapses in emerging markets including China," Johnson says.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
分享集: 先处战地者逸
孙子曰：“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚)，后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。
(白话译文：孙子说：“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸，后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)
孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸，从容不迫；“劳”就是疲劳，疲于奔命。
甲乙两军对垒，要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场，有足够的时间了解地形，构筑好工事，作好如何迎击，如何歼敌，如何撤退等的准备，而士兵又有足够的时间休息，养精蓄锐，以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足，他们可以从容不迫地备战，这就是“逸”。
乙军远道而来，一到战场，士兵已精疲力倦，由于马上就要投入战斗，根本没有时间了解战地形势，更不要说策划战略了，这种打法，兵士疲于奔命，这就是“劳”。
甲军准备充足，以逸待劳，胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师，仓促作战，胜算自然较低。
利润是战利品
股市就是一个战场，买方和卖方，就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利，是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票，此股涨至3令吉，买方赚1令吉，卖方就损失了1令吉的利润，买方是胜利者。同样的，如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方，股价跌至3令吉，买方亏损2令吉，则卖方是胜利者。
利润，就是买卖两方的战利品，是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。
军事之战和股市之战，其实极为相似，都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸，后处战地而趋战者劳”。
在股市中，绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。
当股市沉静时，他们按兵不动，直到股市狂升，股价大涨时才冲进股市，仓促作战，由于行动仓促，备战工作不足，结果是屡犯错误，搞到损兵折将，铩羽而归。
他们在股市中抢进杀出，终日提心吊胆，生活在炼狱中，这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获，还算值得，但是，如果劳而无功，不但无功，而且满身刀伤，怎么值得？然而投资者却趋之若鹜，乐此不疲，实在匪夷所思。
其实，只要投资者改弦易辙，采取孙子所说的方法，先处战地以等待敌人的到来，则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人，卤获丰富的战利品，同时又可以过着安逸的生活。
先处战地而待敌人到来，有两个好处：
1）你有足够的时间，作好战斗的准备。
在股市之战中，你有足够的时间做好功课，考虑更周密，犯错的机会自然减到最低。
减少错误，等于提高胜算。
2）你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么，要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢？
很简单，只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。
所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么，你就给他什么。
有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时，投资者惊慌失措，他们不计成本，在股市中贱价售股，要收回资金；这时候，你就顺应他们的要求，给他金钱，接受他的股票。
当公牛发狂，股价涨到离谱的高峰时，人人进场狂追，他们要的是股票，不要金钱，这时，你就顺应他们的要求，把股票卖给他，接受他的金钱。你这样做，就是有求必应，有求必应的人，就是好人，好人有好心，好心有好报，你这样做，准会发达。
“有求必应”的做法，其实就是反向。
“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步，这一步可能只是一小步，但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候，金融海啸蹂躏下，股市疮痍满目，如果你在那时买进股票，等于“先处战地”，今天的战利品大得惊人。
获利时间较长
这种“先处战地”的策略，应用在股票上，效果如响斯应，试举例说明：
1)当经济衰退时，大胆投资，等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中，“先处战地”，低价买好股，等待公牛回头。
3) 棕油价低沉，买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩，钢材大跌，买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底，开始回升，买夹板股。
6) 受去年金融海啸冲击，一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏，以后不再发生，今年开始恢复盈利，可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股，价值被严重低估，可买，等待别人发现它们。
这样的例子很多，投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维，应用起来，自然得心应手。
这种策略的缺点，如果也算是缺点的话，就是等待获利的时间较长，例如夹板价格回暖了，但夹板股的盈利，要一年以后才公布，你必须有等待一两年的耐性，才能得利。
优点是由于买得早，买价常常极低，风险小，利润高。
时间就是金钱，此言不谬。
(白话译文：孙子说：“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸，后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)
孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸，从容不迫；“劳”就是疲劳，疲于奔命。
甲乙两军对垒，要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场，有足够的时间了解地形，构筑好工事，作好如何迎击，如何歼敌，如何撤退等的准备，而士兵又有足够的时间休息，养精蓄锐，以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足，他们可以从容不迫地备战，这就是“逸”。
乙军远道而来，一到战场，士兵已精疲力倦，由于马上就要投入战斗，根本没有时间了解战地形势，更不要说策划战略了，这种打法，兵士疲于奔命，这就是“劳”。
甲军准备充足，以逸待劳，胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师，仓促作战，胜算自然较低。
利润是战利品
股市就是一个战场，买方和卖方，就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利，是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票，此股涨至3令吉，买方赚1令吉，卖方就损失了1令吉的利润，买方是胜利者。同样的，如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方，股价跌至3令吉，买方亏损2令吉，则卖方是胜利者。
利润，就是买卖两方的战利品，是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。
军事之战和股市之战，其实极为相似，都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸，后处战地而趋战者劳”。
在股市中，绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。
当股市沉静时，他们按兵不动，直到股市狂升，股价大涨时才冲进股市，仓促作战，由于行动仓促，备战工作不足，结果是屡犯错误，搞到损兵折将，铩羽而归。
他们在股市中抢进杀出，终日提心吊胆，生活在炼狱中，这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获，还算值得，但是，如果劳而无功，不但无功，而且满身刀伤，怎么值得？然而投资者却趋之若鹜，乐此不疲，实在匪夷所思。
其实，只要投资者改弦易辙，采取孙子所说的方法，先处战地以等待敌人的到来，则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人，卤获丰富的战利品，同时又可以过着安逸的生活。
先处战地而待敌人到来，有两个好处：
1）你有足够的时间，作好战斗的准备。
在股市之战中，你有足够的时间做好功课，考虑更周密，犯错的机会自然减到最低。
减少错误，等于提高胜算。
2）你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么，要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢？
很简单，只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。
所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么，你就给他什么。
有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时，投资者惊慌失措，他们不计成本，在股市中贱价售股，要收回资金；这时候，你就顺应他们的要求，给他金钱，接受他的股票。
当公牛发狂，股价涨到离谱的高峰时，人人进场狂追，他们要的是股票，不要金钱，这时，你就顺应他们的要求，把股票卖给他，接受他的金钱。你这样做，就是有求必应，有求必应的人，就是好人，好人有好心，好心有好报，你这样做，准会发达。
“有求必应”的做法，其实就是反向。
“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步，这一步可能只是一小步，但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候，金融海啸蹂躏下，股市疮痍满目，如果你在那时买进股票，等于“先处战地”，今天的战利品大得惊人。
获利时间较长
这种“先处战地”的策略，应用在股票上，效果如响斯应，试举例说明：
1)当经济衰退时，大胆投资，等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中，“先处战地”，低价买好股，等待公牛回头。
3) 棕油价低沉，买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩，钢材大跌，买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底，开始回升，买夹板股。
6) 受去年金融海啸冲击，一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏，以后不再发生，今年开始恢复盈利，可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股，价值被严重低估，可买，等待别人发现它们。
这样的例子很多，投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维，应用起来，自然得心应手。
这种策略的缺点，如果也算是缺点的话，就是等待获利的时间较长，例如夹板价格回暖了，但夹板股的盈利，要一年以后才公布，你必须有等待一两年的耐性，才能得利。
优点是由于买得早，买价常常极低，风险小，利润高。
时间就是金钱，此言不谬。
Monday, March 29, 2010
Bears Are Dead Wrong: S&P Will Reach 1,300 by Year's End, Altucher Says
As the market continues its climb of 70 percent-plus off the lows, and the gap widens between the housing and stock markets, the bears are convinced of a downturn -- any day now. But our guest James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, disagrees.
"The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish."
Altucher points to the common arguments the bears make -- and why they're wrong:
Lots of homes are in foreclosure or under water: That's true but there are bright spots in housing data including the Case-Shiller reports, Altucher notes. That housing index has been up the past six months, suggesting prices are stabilizing, he adds.
All the growth we're seeing is just inventory rebuild. Businesses cleared their inventory in anticipation of the 2010 Great Depression that never happened. Now businesses are scrambling to restock, spurring growth in the economy that's likely to last for one to two years at least. "People are going to be surprised how fast and furious this inventory rebuild is going to happen," Altucher says.
Unemployment is 9.7%.Yes but other jobs data show a rise in part-time hours, hourly pay, hours per week, and number of temporary workers. And these are all precursors to gains in fulltime jobs, Altucher explains.
"Before this is fully over we're going to see new all-time highs again. And I do think that we're going to see 1,300 by the end of the year on the S&P," Altucher says.
"The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish."
Altucher points to the common arguments the bears make -- and why they're wrong:
Lots of homes are in foreclosure or under water: That's true but there are bright spots in housing data including the Case-Shiller reports, Altucher notes. That housing index has been up the past six months, suggesting prices are stabilizing, he adds.
All the growth we're seeing is just inventory rebuild. Businesses cleared their inventory in anticipation of the 2010 Great Depression that never happened. Now businesses are scrambling to restock, spurring growth in the economy that's likely to last for one to two years at least. "People are going to be surprised how fast and furious this inventory rebuild is going to happen," Altucher says.
Unemployment is 9.7%.Yes but other jobs data show a rise in part-time hours, hourly pay, hours per week, and number of temporary workers. And these are all precursors to gains in fulltime jobs, Altucher explains.
"Before this is fully over we're going to see new all-time highs again. And I do think that we're going to see 1,300 by the end of the year on the S&P," Altucher says.
Berkowitz: Citi's Balance Sheet 'Better Than Ever'
Fairholme Fund (NASDAQ: FAIRX - News) manager Bruce Berkowitz told Barron's good investments are getting hard to find, but he's still bullish on some of his most interesting fourth-quarter bets.
"My sense is that the investments made in the past 18 months will continue to do quite well." That's what Berkowitz had to say about the current stock-picking environment in a recent interview with Barron's, but the value investing legend conceded that we are nearing the point where interesting investments will become increasingly harder to find. Still, Berkowitz is bullish on the financial names found among his top U.S.-listed equity holdings from the end of 2009.
Berkowitz explained that firms in the financial sector write their best business when times are tough. As for Citigroup (NYSE: C - News), where Fairholme added notable stakes during Q4, Berkowitz went as far as to say, "the balance sheet is better than ever." He also reiterated his bullish view of AIG (NYSE: AIG - News), calling it "tremendously solid," and crediting faulty derivative plays for its recent weakness.
Fairlholme's stakes in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) and health insurance firm Humana (NYSE: HUM - News) have been among laggards over the past month. Meanwhile, Florida-based real estate development company St. Joe (NYSE: JOE - News) is a top performer among Fairholme's latest disclosed holdings. Berkowitz called the stock a "deep-value play," citing the beauty of the firm's real estate, which more buyers may get to experience when the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport opens in May.
Investors can visit tickerspy.com to see all of Fairholme's top holdings and a chart of their combined performance. Members of the site can also track the aggregate performance of Fairholme's holdings throughout each market day.
"My sense is that the investments made in the past 18 months will continue to do quite well." That's what Berkowitz had to say about the current stock-picking environment in a recent interview with Barron's, but the value investing legend conceded that we are nearing the point where interesting investments will become increasingly harder to find. Still, Berkowitz is bullish on the financial names found among his top U.S.-listed equity holdings from the end of 2009.
Berkowitz explained that firms in the financial sector write their best business when times are tough. As for Citigroup (NYSE: C - News), where Fairholme added notable stakes during Q4, Berkowitz went as far as to say, "the balance sheet is better than ever." He also reiterated his bullish view of AIG (NYSE: AIG - News), calling it "tremendously solid," and crediting faulty derivative plays for its recent weakness.
Fairlholme's stakes in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) and health insurance firm Humana (NYSE: HUM - News) have been among laggards over the past month. Meanwhile, Florida-based real estate development company St. Joe (NYSE: JOE - News) is a top performer among Fairholme's latest disclosed holdings. Berkowitz called the stock a "deep-value play," citing the beauty of the firm's real estate, which more buyers may get to experience when the Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport opens in May.
Investors can visit tickerspy.com to see all of Fairholme's top holdings and a chart of their combined performance. Members of the site can also track the aggregate performance of Fairholme's holdings throughout each market day.
Thursday's session amounted to a 'key reversal day'
The stock market's dramatic pullback from its intraday highs Thursday constitutes a textbook illustration of a "key reversal day," which has bearish consequences for at least the stock market's short-term prospects.
According to the standard definition, of course, a key reversal day occurs when the market hits a new intraday high and then closes down. And that, the stock market did on Thursday.
At one point in Thursday's session, in fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 120 points, reaching the 10,955 level -- a new high for the bull market that began in March 2009. Reclaiming the 11,000 level seemed like a sure thing.
And, then, the rally abruptly lost steam. By the close, the broad market had slipped into the loss column for the session -- though the Dow finished with a 5-point gain.
Dramatic as Thursday's reversal was, though, its bearishness -- in and of itself -- is probably of just short-term significance.
That, at least, is the argument made in the latest edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the classic textbook on technical chart formations. Written originally many decades ago by Robert Edwards and John Magee, this textbook was updated as part of the latest (ninth) edition by W. H. C. Bassetti, who is an adjunct professor of finance and economics at Golden Gate University.
What could very well make the difference for whether weakness in coming sessions turns into something more major is sentiment. If the mood quickly turns sour in the wake of that weakness, then the bull market might very well secure another lease on life.
But if, instead, investors and advisers still refuse to build up their cash positions in the face of any such weakness, then contrarian analysis at least will conclude that bigger losses are in store.
It's too early to tell how sentiment trends will unfold in coming sessions, of course. But it's worth noting that Thursday's key reversal day comes at a time when bullish sentiment is at high enough levels to be a source of concern.
In addition, Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, reported on Wednesday of this week that his firm's so-called "Crowd Sentiment Poll," which is a composite of a number of separate sentiment indicators, had just risen into the "Extreme Optimism" zone.
As recently as this past February, in contrast, Davis' "Crowd Sentiment Poll" had been in the "Extreme Pessimism" zone. So there's been a huge swing in sentiment in a very short period of time.
Unless there is an equally big movement to jump back off of the bullish bandwagon in coming days, Thursday's key reversal could very well turn into a decline that is of more than just short-term significance.
Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
According to the standard definition, of course, a key reversal day occurs when the market hits a new intraday high and then closes down. And that, the stock market did on Thursday.
At one point in Thursday's session, in fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 120 points, reaching the 10,955 level -- a new high for the bull market that began in March 2009. Reclaiming the 11,000 level seemed like a sure thing.
And, then, the rally abruptly lost steam. By the close, the broad market had slipped into the loss column for the session -- though the Dow finished with a 5-point gain.
Dramatic as Thursday's reversal was, though, its bearishness -- in and of itself -- is probably of just short-term significance.
That, at least, is the argument made in the latest edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, the classic textbook on technical chart formations. Written originally many decades ago by Robert Edwards and John Magee, this textbook was updated as part of the latest (ninth) edition by W. H. C. Bassetti, who is an adjunct professor of finance and economics at Golden Gate University.
What could very well make the difference for whether weakness in coming sessions turns into something more major is sentiment. If the mood quickly turns sour in the wake of that weakness, then the bull market might very well secure another lease on life.
But if, instead, investors and advisers still refuse to build up their cash positions in the face of any such weakness, then contrarian analysis at least will conclude that bigger losses are in store.
It's too early to tell how sentiment trends will unfold in coming sessions, of course. But it's worth noting that Thursday's key reversal day comes at a time when bullish sentiment is at high enough levels to be a source of concern.
In addition, Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, reported on Wednesday of this week that his firm's so-called "Crowd Sentiment Poll," which is a composite of a number of separate sentiment indicators, had just risen into the "Extreme Optimism" zone.
As recently as this past February, in contrast, Davis' "Crowd Sentiment Poll" had been in the "Extreme Pessimism" zone. So there's been a huge swing in sentiment in a very short period of time.
Unless there is an equally big movement to jump back off of the bullish bandwagon in coming days, Thursday's key reversal could very well turn into a decline that is of more than just short-term significance.
Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
Catching up with the small-caps
An ETF for U.S. small-cap stocks, iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund (IJR), set a fresh 52-week high on Friday and is trading at levels last seen right around Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.
Small and mid-sized stocks have outpaced large-cap shares measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by a wide margin so far in 2010, and since the March bottom last year.
The iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund was up 8.5% for the year-to-date period through March 12, while the SPDR S&P Mid Cap (MDY) gained 8.2%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added 3.6%.
With small and mid-cap stocks essentially unchanged from where they traded right before the Lehman meltdown, this recovery is “considered an important step for stocks and indexes that have fallen steeply in price,” said ConvergEx Group chief market strategist Nicholas Colas in a March 11 note.
“By recovering the entire amount of lost principal, the stock price is signaling that whatever fundamentals created the meltdown have been resolved,” he wrote. “If the asset can stay above this price, it becomes technical support for future moves higher.”
The outperformance of smaller and lower-quality stocks is typical in the first year of a bull market. So what tends to happen in the second year?
“Historically, small-cap stocks continue to beat large-caps, cyclical sectors outperform defensive ones, and a rising tide once again lifts all boats,” S&P Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall wrote in a March 5 report. “But while the direction remains the same, the magnitude is reduced.”
Chart watchers will be monitoring the S&P 500 and SPY to see if they can catch up with small-cap indexes.
“To think that the economy and corporate fundamentals have recovered sufficiently to merit the move is another matter,” Colas said. “At least the next data points — an FOMC meeting … and corporate earnings in April — are close at hand.”
Small and mid-sized stocks have outpaced large-cap shares measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by a wide margin so far in 2010, and since the March bottom last year.
The iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund was up 8.5% for the year-to-date period through March 12, while the SPDR S&P Mid Cap (MDY) gained 8.2%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added 3.6%.
With small and mid-cap stocks essentially unchanged from where they traded right before the Lehman meltdown, this recovery is “considered an important step for stocks and indexes that have fallen steeply in price,” said ConvergEx Group chief market strategist Nicholas Colas in a March 11 note.
“By recovering the entire amount of lost principal, the stock price is signaling that whatever fundamentals created the meltdown have been resolved,” he wrote. “If the asset can stay above this price, it becomes technical support for future moves higher.”
The outperformance of smaller and lower-quality stocks is typical in the first year of a bull market. So what tends to happen in the second year?
“Historically, small-cap stocks continue to beat large-caps, cyclical sectors outperform defensive ones, and a rising tide once again lifts all boats,” S&P Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall wrote in a March 5 report. “But while the direction remains the same, the magnitude is reduced.”
Chart watchers will be monitoring the S&P 500 and SPY to see if they can catch up with small-cap indexes.
“To think that the economy and corporate fundamentals have recovered sufficiently to merit the move is another matter,” Colas said. “At least the next data points — an FOMC meeting … and corporate earnings in April — are close at hand.”
Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why
The unemployment rate remains locked in a range that recalls the economic doldrums of the early 1980s. Housing is stuck in a ditch, with foreclosures rising. And consumers are still reluctant to part with the little cash they do have.
Yet the stock markets are partying like it's 2003, when hiring was brisk, real estate was booming, wallets were fat -- and the major stock indexes started a four-year rally that would double their value and push them to new heights just before the financial crisis hit.
Judging from stock prices alone, one would think the economy was poised for a roaring comeback. But the federal government plans to unplug the economic life-support programs that stimulated production, kept interest rates low and placed a thick cushion under the real estate market.
Some analysts see ample reason for caution in equities, with many economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, forecasting tepid growth in the near term.
"The market is as overvalued now as it was undervalued a year ago," said David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm. "There's a very high degree of complacency."
The incongruity of it all can be seen clearly in an analysis of price-to-earnings ratios, a gauge of how expensive stocks are relative to their performance.
Ratios in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are hovering about 13 percent above the average since 2005; a year ago, they were about 40 percent below the average. That suggests that investors are betting on robust earnings through the end of the year, a view that many economists do not embrace.
"The stock market has priced in a bit more than what we've got so far," said Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac. "We're due for a pause."
Recent rallies have been narrow, with a modest number of stocks reaching 52-week highs even when the broader market surged. There is a sense in some corners that stock prices will decline: investors are betting more on stocks' falling now than they have since July.
Mr. Hirsch, citing historical patterns, predicts a 20 to 30 percent dip in the markets before they can climb again. The Dow Jones industrial average is more than 60 percent above its lows a year ago, flirting with 11,000 for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis, though it remains more than 3,000 off its prerecession peak.
The S.& P. 500 is up nearly 75 percent from a year ago, and the Nasdaq is up nearly 90 percent.
The first part of this year had glittering reports on fourth-quarter earnings and mildly upbeat news on economic indicators like retail sales and orders for durable goods.
In response, the broad-based S.& P. 500 has climbed 4.6 percent this year. Autos, consumer electronics, regional banks and home builders -- all losers in 2009 -- have led the way. Banking stocks, which drove much of last year's rally, continue to surge, with many regional banks up more than 40 percent.
Even during some of the stock markets' better weeks, jitters have seemed to lurk just beneath the surface. The Dow rode a rare eight-day winning streak this month, but trading was light and day-to-day gains were small, casting doubt on the significance of the uptick.
During much of the financial crisis, traders clung to bond funds for safety. But as the appetite for risk has returned, investors have begun snapping up stocks: over the last several weeks, new cash has poured into American equity funds at a brisk pace, and mutual funds have shown particular strength.
Many market participants expect the momentum to continue, with stocks ending the year 10 to 20 percent higher. While few expect strong economic growth this year, investors believe that the recovery is intact and that earnings will continue to grow.
"A lot of people believe the government will just keep pumping money into this," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.
There are signs that some of investors' optimism may be excessive.
Interest rates, kept at historical lows by the Fed during the financial crisis, are starting to rise because of the flight from bonds and concern over rising debt, particularly that of the United States.
Standard mortgage rates hovered near 5 percent last week after auctions of seven-year Treasury notes were met with weak demand, sending yields higher. A sustained rise in interest rates would crimp growth by making borrowing more expensive for consumers, businesses and governments. It could also attract some investors away from equities and into bonds.
Another concern is the nation's intractable unemployment rate, which has hampered consumer spending and worsened a foreclosure crisis in the housing market. Employers are still not adding jobs, though the rate of job losses has declined in recent months, raising hopes that a turning point is at hand.
Consumer confidence has improved modestly from its low a year ago, but spending is still weak.
Some clarity may come to the market on Friday, when the government releases its monthly snapshot of the labor market. Forecasters expect the data to show 200,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7 percent.
When first-quarter earnings results begin trickling in next month, investors will be looking for signs that companies have put cost-cutting behind them and strengthened revenue.
"We've managed to at least temporarily suspend the financial crisis," Mr. Roberts said. "The question now is, 'You've gotten past the first act; what's the encore?'"
Yet the stock markets are partying like it's 2003, when hiring was brisk, real estate was booming, wallets were fat -- and the major stock indexes started a four-year rally that would double their value and push them to new heights just before the financial crisis hit.
Judging from stock prices alone, one would think the economy was poised for a roaring comeback. But the federal government plans to unplug the economic life-support programs that stimulated production, kept interest rates low and placed a thick cushion under the real estate market.
Some analysts see ample reason for caution in equities, with many economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, forecasting tepid growth in the near term.
"The market is as overvalued now as it was undervalued a year ago," said David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm. "There's a very high degree of complacency."
The incongruity of it all can be seen clearly in an analysis of price-to-earnings ratios, a gauge of how expensive stocks are relative to their performance.
Ratios in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are hovering about 13 percent above the average since 2005; a year ago, they were about 40 percent below the average. That suggests that investors are betting on robust earnings through the end of the year, a view that many economists do not embrace.
"The stock market has priced in a bit more than what we've got so far," said Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac. "We're due for a pause."
Recent rallies have been narrow, with a modest number of stocks reaching 52-week highs even when the broader market surged. There is a sense in some corners that stock prices will decline: investors are betting more on stocks' falling now than they have since July.
Mr. Hirsch, citing historical patterns, predicts a 20 to 30 percent dip in the markets before they can climb again. The Dow Jones industrial average is more than 60 percent above its lows a year ago, flirting with 11,000 for the first time since the onset of the financial crisis, though it remains more than 3,000 off its prerecession peak.
The S.& P. 500 is up nearly 75 percent from a year ago, and the Nasdaq is up nearly 90 percent.
The first part of this year had glittering reports on fourth-quarter earnings and mildly upbeat news on economic indicators like retail sales and orders for durable goods.
In response, the broad-based S.& P. 500 has climbed 4.6 percent this year. Autos, consumer electronics, regional banks and home builders -- all losers in 2009 -- have led the way. Banking stocks, which drove much of last year's rally, continue to surge, with many regional banks up more than 40 percent.
Even during some of the stock markets' better weeks, jitters have seemed to lurk just beneath the surface. The Dow rode a rare eight-day winning streak this month, but trading was light and day-to-day gains were small, casting doubt on the significance of the uptick.
During much of the financial crisis, traders clung to bond funds for safety. But as the appetite for risk has returned, investors have begun snapping up stocks: over the last several weeks, new cash has poured into American equity funds at a brisk pace, and mutual funds have shown particular strength.
Many market participants expect the momentum to continue, with stocks ending the year 10 to 20 percent higher. While few expect strong economic growth this year, investors believe that the recovery is intact and that earnings will continue to grow.
"A lot of people believe the government will just keep pumping money into this," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research.
There are signs that some of investors' optimism may be excessive.
Interest rates, kept at historical lows by the Fed during the financial crisis, are starting to rise because of the flight from bonds and concern over rising debt, particularly that of the United States.
Standard mortgage rates hovered near 5 percent last week after auctions of seven-year Treasury notes were met with weak demand, sending yields higher. A sustained rise in interest rates would crimp growth by making borrowing more expensive for consumers, businesses and governments. It could also attract some investors away from equities and into bonds.
Another concern is the nation's intractable unemployment rate, which has hampered consumer spending and worsened a foreclosure crisis in the housing market. Employers are still not adding jobs, though the rate of job losses has declined in recent months, raising hopes that a turning point is at hand.
Consumer confidence has improved modestly from its low a year ago, but spending is still weak.
Some clarity may come to the market on Friday, when the government releases its monthly snapshot of the labor market. Forecasters expect the data to show 200,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7 percent.
When first-quarter earnings results begin trickling in next month, investors will be looking for signs that companies have put cost-cutting behind them and strengthened revenue.
"We've managed to at least temporarily suspend the financial crisis," Mr. Roberts said. "The question now is, 'You've gotten past the first act; what's the encore?'"
Sunday, March 28, 2010
三架马车之“中国远洋”
三架马车之“中国远洋”会否带来投资投机会？
背景A：
1、全球最大航运公司、营业额占丹麦全国GDP20%的巨鳄马士基出现成立105年以来历史上第一次年度亏损。
2、马士基撤走亚欧航运线
3、巴菲特反对浦项购大宇造船厂，称造船业的低潮期会维持一段时间，巴郡不会对竞投行动给予支持。
4、中国远洋受08金融危机打击出现巨亏。
5、中国远洋股价一直徘徊在低水平没有起色，市场先生比较悲观！
背景B：
1、中国远洋为世界第二大综合性航运企业，国内最大干散货运企业！实为质优企业！
2、国际贸易的主要运输工具为海洋运输，进入门槛不大，经验是最大的资本！
3、无论中国怎样转型，三架马车之出口不可没有！
背景C：财务报表各自研究
我的结论：股价仍然在反映当时的悲观情绪，但企业的质量没有变化，亏损只是外部因素造成，有投资机会！
1 个人判断航运恢复到2007-2008是必然事件，虽然时间不确定
2 （恕我愚昧，我做一个很傻的计算，用现股价比2007每股盈利，呵呵）
12.63/2.05 = 6.16，这玩意儿不能叫“市盈率”了，叫它模拟市盈率吧，呵呵。
在做一个，用目前股价比上2005-2008平均每股盈利，呵呵
12.63/ （（0.75+0.9+2.05+1.06）/4）= 10.61
3 从上面分析的结论，该公司股价并不是由绝对吸引力，但可以分析一下内容再长线持有
a 盈利能力和核心竞争力。长远看能不能给股东赚钱？是不是有“护城河”使自己
更有优势。（基本面分析）
b 对周期性行业而言，主要看价格是不是绝对有优势，个人认为如果a过关，那么并且价格在2.05 * 5 = 10.25以下，就可以适当参与，等业绩恢复到2007-08股价翻倍问题不大。（只要你用股市投资持续优良公司的必杀绝技，一字秘诀：
等！打死你也不卖，直到股价翻倍）
但愿我为我的每笔资金，都找到一个白头偕老的她。
我已经做到忽略指标只看企业了，我无法预测企业的业绩自然无法估计未来的指标，怎样作出买入决定？在你认定那是一家好企业的前提下，不断捕捉遇到危机的企业，毒奶期间我买上了伊利，08金融危机我买上中集集团，并没有选择买上茅台酒、云南白药！前段时间我买上了中国远洋（成本：12.8RMB），这些决定我并没有考虑它们未来的业绩将会怎样，各种指标我都没有计算过，我只知道这些是好企业未来无问题，市场先生因为悲观情绪给了我一个好价！
背景A：
1、全球最大航运公司、营业额占丹麦全国GDP20%的巨鳄马士基出现成立105年以来历史上第一次年度亏损。
2、马士基撤走亚欧航运线
3、巴菲特反对浦项购大宇造船厂，称造船业的低潮期会维持一段时间，巴郡不会对竞投行动给予支持。
4、中国远洋受08金融危机打击出现巨亏。
5、中国远洋股价一直徘徊在低水平没有起色，市场先生比较悲观！
背景B：
1、中国远洋为世界第二大综合性航运企业，国内最大干散货运企业！实为质优企业！
2、国际贸易的主要运输工具为海洋运输，进入门槛不大，经验是最大的资本！
3、无论中国怎样转型，三架马车之出口不可没有！
背景C：财务报表各自研究
我的结论：股价仍然在反映当时的悲观情绪，但企业的质量没有变化，亏损只是外部因素造成，有投资机会！
1 个人判断航运恢复到2007-2008是必然事件，虽然时间不确定
2 （恕我愚昧，我做一个很傻的计算，用现股价比2007每股盈利，呵呵）
12.63/2.05 = 6.16，这玩意儿不能叫“市盈率”了，叫它模拟市盈率吧，呵呵。
在做一个，用目前股价比上2005-2008平均每股盈利，呵呵
12.63/ （（0.75+0.9+2.05+1.06）/4）= 10.61
3 从上面分析的结论，该公司股价并不是由绝对吸引力，但可以分析一下内容再长线持有
a 盈利能力和核心竞争力。长远看能不能给股东赚钱？是不是有“护城河”使自己
更有优势。（基本面分析）
b 对周期性行业而言，主要看价格是不是绝对有优势，个人认为如果a过关，那么并且价格在2.05 * 5 = 10.25以下，就可以适当参与，等业绩恢复到2007-08股价翻倍问题不大。（只要你用股市投资持续优良公司的必杀绝技，一字秘诀：
等！打死你也不卖，直到股价翻倍）
但愿我为我的每笔资金，都找到一个白头偕老的她。
我已经做到忽略指标只看企业了，我无法预测企业的业绩自然无法估计未来的指标，怎样作出买入决定？在你认定那是一家好企业的前提下，不断捕捉遇到危机的企业，毒奶期间我买上了伊利，08金融危机我买上中集集团，并没有选择买上茅台酒、云南白药！前段时间我买上了中国远洋（成本：12.8RMB），这些决定我并没有考虑它们未来的业绩将会怎样，各种指标我都没有计算过，我只知道这些是好企业未来无问题，市场先生因为悲观情绪给了我一个好价！
被遗忘的2008年的教训
塞思 • 卡拉曼（Seth Klarman）,Baupost基金公司总裁。Baupost集团成立于1983年,该基金从建立到2008年12月31日的26年来的年均收益率为16.5%,考虑到因为金融危机导致的市场指数回落,这个成绩是极为杰出的,同期的标准普尔500指数收益率为10.1%。在被称为 “ 失去的十年 ” 的1998年到2008年,Baupost基金的收益率为15.9%,而同期的标准普尔500指数收益率为1.4%。
投资理念和风格
卡拉曼投资于广泛的领域,从传统的价值型股票到很深奥难懂的投资,比如不良债务、公司破产清算资产、外国股票或债券等。有时,卡拉曼不介意“什么也不做”。当投资机会缺乏的时候,他可以完全泰然自若地持有现金观望。他经常说,投资不仅仅是追求绝对回报,投资者往往太侧重于回报的数字,而漠视了产生这个数字所招致的风险。
卡拉曼的投资风格有时被认为像年轻时的巴菲特,他的投资思路有三大支柱:
1.追求绝对收益,不去理会相对表现,找到自己的优势,将其最大程度的发挥。现在基金界的“悲哀”是过于关注相对表现,大家只盯着指数,盯着同行,只要损失比其他人小就算是成功。对相对表现的过度关注,使得机构既不希望太落后,也不希望过于“冒尖”,于是中庸成为最佳策略。但富豪阶层的客户,关注的应该是绝对收益。
2.推崇自下而上选股。因为自上而下的难度太大,虽然他不能忽视宏观经济趋势,但任何人不可能每次都踏准宏观经济的节奏。他说: “我不知道有谁能非常好的长期创纪录地成功预测宏观形势。”而且即便宏观经济预测准确,落实到行业和公司又是另外一回事了。所以他们一直采取的就是自下而上的方法,侧重于每家公司的业务基本面,对每一家公司做各种情况下的敏感性分析,或者“压力测试”。
3.首先关注风险,然后才是回报。对公司进行测试带来的不同结果,使得他所认为的风险不等同于BETA,BETA值是学术问题,对投资没有意义,市场波动也不意味着其他,有时反而意味着投资机会。他们与华尔街投资不同之处就在于,对风险的关注使价值投资方法考虑在不同情景下的损失,这样得到的是一个股价区间,而华尔街的投资通过某种方法得到一个价位,很自然算出来的是回报。
他说: “最后,没有什么比让投资者晚上安然入睡更重要的事了。”
他的风险厌恶带来了一些有趣的结果。尽管Baupost是一个对冲基金,他可以被允许做任何他想做的投资,但Baupost几乎总是保持大量的现金持有量,而且没有运用借贷杠杆。在这次危机到来时,该基金近一半资产是现金,甚至在市场的底部时仍有约20％现金可以继续投资。他持有的空头头寸从来没有超过资产的1％,部分原因是放空需要了解投资者短期的心理,这与他所坚持的长期投资的风格冲突。他认为长期投资的风格也正是Baupost的一个优势所在。
价值投资显然是他的投资方法的核心,但他不太赞同价值妄求者逢低便买的做法。 “ 我们寻求令人震惊的价格错位,这一般是由紧急事件、人们惊慌失措、或盲目的抛售引起的。”不良债务领域发生的事情是一个很好的例子,由于破产威胁,许多债券基金被迫集体立即抛售其持有的不良债务。在这种情况下,破产过程本身也可以成为释放价值的催化剂。卡拉曼善于在这样混乱的情况下投资。
尽管资产价格总是有可能出现上涨过度,相对于趋势投资者,他卖出时的策略是在资产达到其公允价值前就将其出售。“不要依赖、迷恋上公司或其管理层。 ”
2008年的经验教训
作为经典教材《安全边际》的作者,卡拉曼不仅长期投资业绩遥遥领先对手,而且总是能够在最关键的时刻提出充满智慧的评论帮助投资者提高投资技能。在价值投资派别中,除了巴菲特及其致股东信,目前市场上最受投资人尊敬的人物以及最受关注的市场观点,卡拉曼一定位列其中。
我们从他最近致投资者的信中摘录了他总结的关于金融危机的20个教训,他认为这些经验教训“要么人们好像从来没有学过,要么是被大多数市场参与者很快忘记了。”所以有必要再次强调,并提醒投资者。这些经验教训中有些是2008年市场崩盘时新产生的,有些是过去几十年我们本来可以认识到的。
1.以前从未发生过的事情一定会伴随着一些规律而发生。你必须时刻准备市场中意外的发生,包括股票市场和经济体突然的急剧下降波动。无论你预期情况如何不利,现实可能只会更糟。
2.当过度宽松的信贷环境普及和持续一段时间后,人们会被带入虚假的安全感中,这会造成一个更加危险的局面。这些过度投机将最终结束,引发至少和其成比例的危机。当杠杆迅速降下来时,资产类别之间的相关性可能会高得惊人。
3.投资者并不是应该努力使每一个美元取得潜在利润,对风险的考虑永远应在收益的前面。保持保守的仓位在遇到危机时是至关重要的:它使人们能够保持以长期为导向,思路清晰,集中发现新的投资机会,而其他人可能甚至被迫出售自身资产。投资组合风险对冲必须建立在危机发生前。人们不能在危机期间有把握地增加或者替换对冲资产。
4.风险并不是投资与生俱来的特征,它总是相对于投入支出的价格来讲的。不确定性和风险不相同。例如在2008年秋季,当巨大的不确定性驱动证券跌到很低的价格时,它们常常成为风险较小的投资。
5.不要相信金融市场风险模型。现实总是太复杂而无法准确建模。对风险的关注必须是全天候的,与人而不是电脑一起评估或重新评估实时的风险环境。尽管一些分析人士偏爱复杂的数学模式,但市场是门行为科学,而不是物理科学。
6.将短期资金投资时,不要接触到过大的风险:贪婪地去努力赢得一些额外的收益率基点,必然导致面临更大的风险,这会增加损失的可能,导致当要支付费用、兑现承诺或者作出杰出的长期投资时面临严重的流动性困境。
7.证券的最新交易价格制造了一个危险的假象,就是人们会认为它的市场价格接近于其真正价值。这在市场繁荣时期尤其的危险。市场价值的观念作为公司业务的正常价值锚,可能在沸腾的年代被极大地扭曲了,我们应该总是对其持有一定程度的怀疑。
8.广泛而灵活的投资方式在危机期间是必不可少的。机会是广泛又短暂地分散存在于各行业和市场中。投资范围刚性在这种时候会是巨大的劣势。
9.你必须在市场下跌过程中购买。在下跌过程中比在回升上涨过程有更多的容量,而且有更少的购买者相竞争。早点总比晚些好,但是你必须对价格的继续下降做好准备。
10.金融创新可以变得十分危险,但几乎没有人会告诉你这一点。新的金融产品通常是为阳光明媚的天气准备的,几乎从来没有接受过暴风雨的压力考验。资产证券化市场几乎完全符合此描述的一个领域,如次级抵押贷款市场在2008年彻底崩溃,直到现在它也没有完全康复。具有讽刺意味的是,政府现在迫切希望证券化市场恢复到其崩溃前的地位。
11.评级机构是有着自身冲突的,无趣且容易被愚弄的。他们只是傻乐着,不去注意逆向选择和道德风险问题。投资者不应该信任他们。
12.要确保你能弥补流动资金不足,特别是不被控制的流动性不足,因为它会带来很高的机会成本。
13.在相等的回报下,公共投资一般优于私人投资,这不仅因为他们有更强的流动性,而且因为在处于困境中时,公共市场比私人市场更有可能提供以低于平均价格买进的有吸引力的机会。
14.提防各种形式的杠杆。借款人不管是个人、公司或政府,必须要将他们的债务和自身的资产相匹配。借款人必须永远记住,资本市场是变化无常的,而且借助贷款到期可以结转的假设,是永远不会安全的。即使你不用杠杆,别人用的杠杆也可以驱动戏剧性的价格和价值波动,对经济体来说,杠杆的突然不可用可能会引发经济衰退。
15.许多杠杆收购是人为的灾害。当付出的代价过大时,一个杠杆收购的股权比例实在是一个地地道道的蚀价看涨期权。
16.金融类股有独特的风险。尤其是银行业,这是一个极具竞争性和挑战性的业务领域。欧洲的一家大型银行最近公布其在几年内实现20％的股本回报率（ROE）的目标。不幸的是,净资产收益率高度依赖于银行的绝对收益率,利息差,保持充足的贷款损失准备金,以及杠杆使用量。如果不能轻易达到20%的收益,银行要怎样做呢？增加杠杆吗？持有风险较高的资产？忽略损失的风险？在某些方面来看,一个主要的金融机构有净资产收益率目标是要惹祸的。
17.拥有有着长期定位的客户是至关重要的。对于一个投资公司的成功,没有比保持投资的稳定更重要的了。
18.当一个政府官员说,问题已被 “ 控制 ” 时,不要听信。
19.政府作为最终短期导向的角色,不会忍受经济或金融市场上的痛苦。救助和救援都可能发生,虽然对此投资者没有足够的预测性,不能舒服地有机可乘。政府将采取的这种干预具有巨大的风险,特别是当开支可以很方便地推迟到未来时。有些价格标签是以承诺保障的,其费用几乎是无法确定的。
20.几乎没有人会愿意承担他或她在一场危机中的责任:不是杠杆投机者,不是金融机构的视而不见领导层,当然也不是监管机构、政府官员、评级机构或政客。
了解而且有效地践行从投资中得来的经验教训,需要一个有纪律、常常反省、以长期为导向的投资方法。它需要坚决以规避风险为重点,而不是寻求暂时回报的最大化,对金融市场周期性的认识,以及有时要非凡的耐心。
投资理念和风格
卡拉曼投资于广泛的领域,从传统的价值型股票到很深奥难懂的投资,比如不良债务、公司破产清算资产、外国股票或债券等。有时,卡拉曼不介意“什么也不做”。当投资机会缺乏的时候,他可以完全泰然自若地持有现金观望。他经常说,投资不仅仅是追求绝对回报,投资者往往太侧重于回报的数字,而漠视了产生这个数字所招致的风险。
卡拉曼的投资风格有时被认为像年轻时的巴菲特,他的投资思路有三大支柱:
1.追求绝对收益,不去理会相对表现,找到自己的优势,将其最大程度的发挥。现在基金界的“悲哀”是过于关注相对表现,大家只盯着指数,盯着同行,只要损失比其他人小就算是成功。对相对表现的过度关注,使得机构既不希望太落后,也不希望过于“冒尖”,于是中庸成为最佳策略。但富豪阶层的客户,关注的应该是绝对收益。
2.推崇自下而上选股。因为自上而下的难度太大,虽然他不能忽视宏观经济趋势,但任何人不可能每次都踏准宏观经济的节奏。他说: “我不知道有谁能非常好的长期创纪录地成功预测宏观形势。”而且即便宏观经济预测准确,落实到行业和公司又是另外一回事了。所以他们一直采取的就是自下而上的方法,侧重于每家公司的业务基本面,对每一家公司做各种情况下的敏感性分析,或者“压力测试”。
3.首先关注风险,然后才是回报。对公司进行测试带来的不同结果,使得他所认为的风险不等同于BETA,BETA值是学术问题,对投资没有意义,市场波动也不意味着其他,有时反而意味着投资机会。他们与华尔街投资不同之处就在于,对风险的关注使价值投资方法考虑在不同情景下的损失,这样得到的是一个股价区间,而华尔街的投资通过某种方法得到一个价位,很自然算出来的是回报。
他说: “最后,没有什么比让投资者晚上安然入睡更重要的事了。”
他的风险厌恶带来了一些有趣的结果。尽管Baupost是一个对冲基金,他可以被允许做任何他想做的投资,但Baupost几乎总是保持大量的现金持有量,而且没有运用借贷杠杆。在这次危机到来时,该基金近一半资产是现金,甚至在市场的底部时仍有约20％现金可以继续投资。他持有的空头头寸从来没有超过资产的1％,部分原因是放空需要了解投资者短期的心理,这与他所坚持的长期投资的风格冲突。他认为长期投资的风格也正是Baupost的一个优势所在。
价值投资显然是他的投资方法的核心,但他不太赞同价值妄求者逢低便买的做法。 “ 我们寻求令人震惊的价格错位,这一般是由紧急事件、人们惊慌失措、或盲目的抛售引起的。”不良债务领域发生的事情是一个很好的例子,由于破产威胁,许多债券基金被迫集体立即抛售其持有的不良债务。在这种情况下,破产过程本身也可以成为释放价值的催化剂。卡拉曼善于在这样混乱的情况下投资。
尽管资产价格总是有可能出现上涨过度,相对于趋势投资者,他卖出时的策略是在资产达到其公允价值前就将其出售。“不要依赖、迷恋上公司或其管理层。 ”
2008年的经验教训
作为经典教材《安全边际》的作者,卡拉曼不仅长期投资业绩遥遥领先对手,而且总是能够在最关键的时刻提出充满智慧的评论帮助投资者提高投资技能。在价值投资派别中,除了巴菲特及其致股东信,目前市场上最受投资人尊敬的人物以及最受关注的市场观点,卡拉曼一定位列其中。
我们从他最近致投资者的信中摘录了他总结的关于金融危机的20个教训,他认为这些经验教训“要么人们好像从来没有学过,要么是被大多数市场参与者很快忘记了。”所以有必要再次强调,并提醒投资者。这些经验教训中有些是2008年市场崩盘时新产生的,有些是过去几十年我们本来可以认识到的。
1.以前从未发生过的事情一定会伴随着一些规律而发生。你必须时刻准备市场中意外的发生,包括股票市场和经济体突然的急剧下降波动。无论你预期情况如何不利,现实可能只会更糟。
2.当过度宽松的信贷环境普及和持续一段时间后,人们会被带入虚假的安全感中,这会造成一个更加危险的局面。这些过度投机将最终结束,引发至少和其成比例的危机。当杠杆迅速降下来时,资产类别之间的相关性可能会高得惊人。
3.投资者并不是应该努力使每一个美元取得潜在利润,对风险的考虑永远应在收益的前面。保持保守的仓位在遇到危机时是至关重要的:它使人们能够保持以长期为导向,思路清晰,集中发现新的投资机会,而其他人可能甚至被迫出售自身资产。投资组合风险对冲必须建立在危机发生前。人们不能在危机期间有把握地增加或者替换对冲资产。
4.风险并不是投资与生俱来的特征,它总是相对于投入支出的价格来讲的。不确定性和风险不相同。例如在2008年秋季,当巨大的不确定性驱动证券跌到很低的价格时,它们常常成为风险较小的投资。
5.不要相信金融市场风险模型。现实总是太复杂而无法准确建模。对风险的关注必须是全天候的,与人而不是电脑一起评估或重新评估实时的风险环境。尽管一些分析人士偏爱复杂的数学模式,但市场是门行为科学,而不是物理科学。
6.将短期资金投资时,不要接触到过大的风险:贪婪地去努力赢得一些额外的收益率基点,必然导致面临更大的风险,这会增加损失的可能,导致当要支付费用、兑现承诺或者作出杰出的长期投资时面临严重的流动性困境。
7.证券的最新交易价格制造了一个危险的假象,就是人们会认为它的市场价格接近于其真正价值。这在市场繁荣时期尤其的危险。市场价值的观念作为公司业务的正常价值锚,可能在沸腾的年代被极大地扭曲了,我们应该总是对其持有一定程度的怀疑。
8.广泛而灵活的投资方式在危机期间是必不可少的。机会是广泛又短暂地分散存在于各行业和市场中。投资范围刚性在这种时候会是巨大的劣势。
9.你必须在市场下跌过程中购买。在下跌过程中比在回升上涨过程有更多的容量,而且有更少的购买者相竞争。早点总比晚些好,但是你必须对价格的继续下降做好准备。
10.金融创新可以变得十分危险,但几乎没有人会告诉你这一点。新的金融产品通常是为阳光明媚的天气准备的,几乎从来没有接受过暴风雨的压力考验。资产证券化市场几乎完全符合此描述的一个领域,如次级抵押贷款市场在2008年彻底崩溃,直到现在它也没有完全康复。具有讽刺意味的是,政府现在迫切希望证券化市场恢复到其崩溃前的地位。
11.评级机构是有着自身冲突的,无趣且容易被愚弄的。他们只是傻乐着,不去注意逆向选择和道德风险问题。投资者不应该信任他们。
12.要确保你能弥补流动资金不足,特别是不被控制的流动性不足,因为它会带来很高的机会成本。
13.在相等的回报下,公共投资一般优于私人投资,这不仅因为他们有更强的流动性,而且因为在处于困境中时,公共市场比私人市场更有可能提供以低于平均价格买进的有吸引力的机会。
14.提防各种形式的杠杆。借款人不管是个人、公司或政府,必须要将他们的债务和自身的资产相匹配。借款人必须永远记住,资本市场是变化无常的,而且借助贷款到期可以结转的假设,是永远不会安全的。即使你不用杠杆,别人用的杠杆也可以驱动戏剧性的价格和价值波动,对经济体来说,杠杆的突然不可用可能会引发经济衰退。
15.许多杠杆收购是人为的灾害。当付出的代价过大时,一个杠杆收购的股权比例实在是一个地地道道的蚀价看涨期权。
16.金融类股有独特的风险。尤其是银行业,这是一个极具竞争性和挑战性的业务领域。欧洲的一家大型银行最近公布其在几年内实现20％的股本回报率（ROE）的目标。不幸的是,净资产收益率高度依赖于银行的绝对收益率,利息差,保持充足的贷款损失准备金,以及杠杆使用量。如果不能轻易达到20%的收益,银行要怎样做呢？增加杠杆吗？持有风险较高的资产？忽略损失的风险？在某些方面来看,一个主要的金融机构有净资产收益率目标是要惹祸的。
17.拥有有着长期定位的客户是至关重要的。对于一个投资公司的成功,没有比保持投资的稳定更重要的了。
18.当一个政府官员说,问题已被 “ 控制 ” 时,不要听信。
19.政府作为最终短期导向的角色,不会忍受经济或金融市场上的痛苦。救助和救援都可能发生,虽然对此投资者没有足够的预测性,不能舒服地有机可乘。政府将采取的这种干预具有巨大的风险,特别是当开支可以很方便地推迟到未来时。有些价格标签是以承诺保障的,其费用几乎是无法确定的。
20.几乎没有人会愿意承担他或她在一场危机中的责任:不是杠杆投机者,不是金融机构的视而不见领导层,当然也不是监管机构、政府官员、评级机构或政客。
了解而且有效地践行从投资中得来的经验教训,需要一个有纪律、常常反省、以长期为导向的投资方法。它需要坚决以规避风险为重点,而不是寻求暂时回报的最大化,对金融市场周期性的认识,以及有时要非凡的耐心。
密切关注中远航运
最近在研究中远航运，现在将研究的结果汇报一下：
1、2010年至2013年，中远航运的运力将有较大的提升，其赢利能力会有很大的提高，具体数据如下：
半潜船的运力将增长240％。公司现在有半潜船2艘，运力4.1万载重吨，2010、2011两年每年将有1艘5万吨的新型半潜船投入运营；
重吊船的运力将增长440％。公司现有重吊船5艘，共计9.6万载重吨，10-13年会有15艘2.8万载重吨的重吊船投入运营。而且新的船型吨位大，可以投入到更为高端的特种运输市场。
多用途船也会有13艘2.7万载重吨共计35.1万载重吨投入运营，公司现有83.4万载重吨的多用途船运力。因公司的老旧多用途船在持续淘汰中，所以不好计算其新增运力占原有运力的百分比情况。公司2009年4月28日投入运营的新型多用途船“凤凰松轮”的运营情况让人振奋。这艘新型的多用途船体现出了强于老型多用途船的赢利能力，根据在其投入运营的这段时间段的情况来测算，“凤凰松轮”每年的净利润在5000万以上。（数据来自东方证券）
半潜船、重吊船一直是公司利润的重要来源，2009年这2种船型更是奉献了公司240％的利润，体现了强大的赢利能力。新型半潜船、重吊船、多用途船新增运力的投入运营，将会极大的提升公司的赢利水平，使得公司真正成为世界特种海运市场上的垄断寡头。
2、世界海运市场在逐渐复苏，航运价格在逐渐回升。金融危机在逐渐过去，其中中国、非洲、南美等新兴市场国家的复苏势头更猛。中远航运的主要航线正好覆盖这些复苏强劲的新兴市场国家，而且在这些航线上，公司具有较大的竞争优势。
公司运力的增加再加上运价的提升，会给中远航运的业绩产生“戴维斯双击”的效应。
以上是公司有利的一面，不利的方面有：
1、世界经济复苏的步伐难以预料；
2、公司的新增运力增幅较大，到时市场需求能否跟得上公司运力的增长，这是我最为担心的。对于这个问题我计划明天给公司打个电话了解了解情况，看公司怎么说。
如果公司的一切情况正常的话，特别是新投入的运力不会拉低运价水平，那么中远航运很有可能正处于业绩爆发的前夜。
但是中远航运现在的价格还是有些高，看能否有更好的买入机会，我会继续等待、关注。
1、2010年至2013年，中远航运的运力将有较大的提升，其赢利能力会有很大的提高，具体数据如下：
半潜船的运力将增长240％。公司现在有半潜船2艘，运力4.1万载重吨，2010、2011两年每年将有1艘5万吨的新型半潜船投入运营；
重吊船的运力将增长440％。公司现有重吊船5艘，共计9.6万载重吨，10-13年会有15艘2.8万载重吨的重吊船投入运营。而且新的船型吨位大，可以投入到更为高端的特种运输市场。
多用途船也会有13艘2.7万载重吨共计35.1万载重吨投入运营，公司现有83.4万载重吨的多用途船运力。因公司的老旧多用途船在持续淘汰中，所以不好计算其新增运力占原有运力的百分比情况。公司2009年4月28日投入运营的新型多用途船“凤凰松轮”的运营情况让人振奋。这艘新型的多用途船体现出了强于老型多用途船的赢利能力，根据在其投入运营的这段时间段的情况来测算，“凤凰松轮”每年的净利润在5000万以上。（数据来自东方证券）
半潜船、重吊船一直是公司利润的重要来源，2009年这2种船型更是奉献了公司240％的利润，体现了强大的赢利能力。新型半潜船、重吊船、多用途船新增运力的投入运营，将会极大的提升公司的赢利水平，使得公司真正成为世界特种海运市场上的垄断寡头。
2、世界海运市场在逐渐复苏，航运价格在逐渐回升。金融危机在逐渐过去，其中中国、非洲、南美等新兴市场国家的复苏势头更猛。中远航运的主要航线正好覆盖这些复苏强劲的新兴市场国家，而且在这些航线上，公司具有较大的竞争优势。
公司运力的增加再加上运价的提升，会给中远航运的业绩产生“戴维斯双击”的效应。
以上是公司有利的一面，不利的方面有：
1、世界经济复苏的步伐难以预料；
2、公司的新增运力增幅较大，到时市场需求能否跟得上公司运力的增长，这是我最为担心的。对于这个问题我计划明天给公司打个电话了解了解情况，看公司怎么说。
如果公司的一切情况正常的话，特别是新投入的运力不会拉低运价水平，那么中远航运很有可能正处于业绩爆发的前夜。
但是中远航运现在的价格还是有些高，看能否有更好的买入机会，我会继续等待、关注。
投资之道成于学而藏于书
题记：朱熹曾写道：“半亩方塘一鉴开，天光云影共徘徊，问渠哪得清如许？为有源头活水来。”这幅美丽的风光图卷，其实有深刻的寓意，书籍就好比源头活水，我们只有不断吸取新知识，才能有日新月异的进步。投资之道亦如此！
书犹药也，善读之可以医愚
投资领域多风险，学习知识应在先。许多投资者在经历了百转千回，痛定思痛之后，深深地感到“书到用时方恨少”。靠运气、听消息、随波逐流的投资方法，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败！投资者就像在黑暗中摸索着前行的朝圣者，而一本好书可以帮助我们打开一片新的投资世界，把我们引领到光明的天地。因为许多事情，过去有过；许多问题，前人想过；许多办法，曾经用过；许多错误，屡屡犯过。走前人走过的道路，读前人悟出的道理，化不利为有利，起码不至于轻信，不至于盲从。孔子云：学然后知不足，知不足，然后能自反也。扎实掌握投资理论是投资取胜的前提。
玉不琢，不成器；人不学，不知道
华尔街传奇炒家江恩开始涉足期货市场时，也经历了新手必然遇到的起起落落，但他很快认识到，所有的成功人士在开始赚钱之前，都对自己特定的职业和追求进行了多年的学习和研究。于是，江恩花了大量时间泡在纽约的图书馆和大英博物院里，没日没夜地研究以往的股票、期货市场的交易记录和华尔街成功炒家的操作方法，并总结出一套以自然规则为核心的交易方法，在他的分析理论中着重分析了价格和时间的周期性关系。江恩引用《圣经》中的名言对自己的理论进行了解释：“已有的，还会有；已做的，复去做。阳光之下没有新的东西。即使我们会说，看呀，这是新的，它却早已存在于我们之前的年代了。”
我们可以看出，成功的投资大师并不是天生神奇就会在市场上获利的，他们也是投入了大量的时间和精力去学习、去体会、去总结。
读书所贵，得间后可
古人认为“读书得间”，就是从空隙间看出它的事实来。从点看面，这犹如阳光从树林中照在青苔上，斑驳的光亮可以多少反映出客观的现象，从而可以得出事实的一个侧面，然后再研究其内在的联系。
其实，闲情逸致的书也可以读出自己的空间。近日在朋友那里偶得一本书，书名为《听南怀瑾大师讲经(感悟篇)》。书中有这样一则外国故事，说的是一个年轻人，向智者买到三条人生箴言——你心爱的人是最美丽的；忍耐是通往幸福之路的第一步；谁善于等待谁将获胜。第一条箴言帮助他选中了一个心爱的妻子。婚后不久，他决定出外做生意，行前，他嘱咐妻子耐心等他回来，而他也一定对她坚贞如一。妻子同意了。
生意很难做，年轻人差点不能熬下去，但第二条箴言给了他坚持到底的信念。20年后，他终于发了财，决定回家。当他来到家门口，却惊讶地发现，他的妻子正在亲吻一个漂亮青年，眼神里盛满了爱。这时的他顿时气得热血冲头……但第三条箴言让他冷静下来，他决定先了解情况再作定夺。于是，他找了一个旅馆住了下来，经过一个晚上的打听，他发现妻子对他仍然忠心耿耿，那个漂亮的青年是他们的儿子。
把这个故事与投资联系起来，投资就是小伙子做生意，这一过程需要忍耐，不要幻想赚快钱，一夜暴富。就像巴菲特说的，成功需要等待，享受的是赚钱的过程。一旦发现市场不正常波动，就需要探究背后的真实情况，只要得到了正确的答案，就能够忍受波动带来的短期痛苦。
书可怡情亦可养心
投资路上，成功失败皆平常，应做到其心如山之不动，其性如水之无常。
久经尘世的喧嚣，人的心灵往往渴求一种宁静，此时，可暂时离场，品一杯好茶，读一本好书，达到心灵的净化！一书在手，那书便不再是书，而是可以倾听、可以对语的肝胆相照的良朋好友，是无影无形无声却胜似有貌有形有声的红颜知己。激动处可拍案叫绝，伤情处必淅沥有声，会心处则抿唇微微一笑。一本好书读完，读书者早已沉沉然醺醺然，忘却今夕何夕，浑然不知此时是在红尘还是在梦里。此种境界，无喜，无悲，无物，无我，这也正是投资的至高境界。
世人不计其数，知己者数人而已；书籍汪洋大海，投机者数本而已！选择一本适合自己的书，哪怕只读出其中的一个小小侧面，也是一种收获. 书，和书籍活在一起，永远不会叹息！
无喜，无悲，无物，无我，这也正是投资的至高境界!
书犹药也，善读之可以医愚
投资领域多风险，学习知识应在先。许多投资者在经历了百转千回，痛定思痛之后，深深地感到“书到用时方恨少”。靠运气、听消息、随波逐流的投资方法，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败！投资者就像在黑暗中摸索着前行的朝圣者，而一本好书可以帮助我们打开一片新的投资世界，把我们引领到光明的天地。因为许多事情，过去有过；许多问题，前人想过；许多办法，曾经用过；许多错误，屡屡犯过。走前人走过的道路，读前人悟出的道理，化不利为有利，起码不至于轻信，不至于盲从。孔子云：学然后知不足，知不足，然后能自反也。扎实掌握投资理论是投资取胜的前提。
玉不琢，不成器；人不学，不知道
华尔街传奇炒家江恩开始涉足期货市场时，也经历了新手必然遇到的起起落落，但他很快认识到，所有的成功人士在开始赚钱之前，都对自己特定的职业和追求进行了多年的学习和研究。于是，江恩花了大量时间泡在纽约的图书馆和大英博物院里，没日没夜地研究以往的股票、期货市场的交易记录和华尔街成功炒家的操作方法，并总结出一套以自然规则为核心的交易方法，在他的分析理论中着重分析了价格和时间的周期性关系。江恩引用《圣经》中的名言对自己的理论进行了解释：“已有的，还会有；已做的，复去做。阳光之下没有新的东西。即使我们会说，看呀，这是新的，它却早已存在于我们之前的年代了。”
我们可以看出，成功的投资大师并不是天生神奇就会在市场上获利的，他们也是投入了大量的时间和精力去学习、去体会、去总结。
读书所贵，得间后可
古人认为“读书得间”，就是从空隙间看出它的事实来。从点看面，这犹如阳光从树林中照在青苔上，斑驳的光亮可以多少反映出客观的现象，从而可以得出事实的一个侧面，然后再研究其内在的联系。
其实，闲情逸致的书也可以读出自己的空间。近日在朋友那里偶得一本书，书名为《听南怀瑾大师讲经(感悟篇)》。书中有这样一则外国故事，说的是一个年轻人，向智者买到三条人生箴言——你心爱的人是最美丽的；忍耐是通往幸福之路的第一步；谁善于等待谁将获胜。第一条箴言帮助他选中了一个心爱的妻子。婚后不久，他决定出外做生意，行前，他嘱咐妻子耐心等他回来，而他也一定对她坚贞如一。妻子同意了。
生意很难做，年轻人差点不能熬下去，但第二条箴言给了他坚持到底的信念。20年后，他终于发了财，决定回家。当他来到家门口，却惊讶地发现，他的妻子正在亲吻一个漂亮青年，眼神里盛满了爱。这时的他顿时气得热血冲头……但第三条箴言让他冷静下来，他决定先了解情况再作定夺。于是，他找了一个旅馆住了下来，经过一个晚上的打听，他发现妻子对他仍然忠心耿耿，那个漂亮的青年是他们的儿子。
把这个故事与投资联系起来，投资就是小伙子做生意，这一过程需要忍耐，不要幻想赚快钱，一夜暴富。就像巴菲特说的，成功需要等待，享受的是赚钱的过程。一旦发现市场不正常波动，就需要探究背后的真实情况，只要得到了正确的答案，就能够忍受波动带来的短期痛苦。
书可怡情亦可养心
投资路上，成功失败皆平常，应做到其心如山之不动，其性如水之无常。
久经尘世的喧嚣，人的心灵往往渴求一种宁静，此时，可暂时离场，品一杯好茶，读一本好书，达到心灵的净化！一书在手，那书便不再是书，而是可以倾听、可以对语的肝胆相照的良朋好友，是无影无形无声却胜似有貌有形有声的红颜知己。激动处可拍案叫绝，伤情处必淅沥有声，会心处则抿唇微微一笑。一本好书读完，读书者早已沉沉然醺醺然，忘却今夕何夕，浑然不知此时是在红尘还是在梦里。此种境界，无喜，无悲，无物，无我，这也正是投资的至高境界。
世人不计其数，知己者数人而已；书籍汪洋大海，投机者数本而已！选择一本适合自己的书，哪怕只读出其中的一个小小侧面，也是一种收获. 书，和书籍活在一起，永远不会叹息！
无喜，无悲，无物，无我，这也正是投资的至高境界!
有些问题不想明白，永远没有出头之日
我认识两个人，拿出来对比很有意思。
一个是我所在券商的投资顾问。每天都会给我发来短信分析市场走势，而且经常推荐近期值得关注的股票。非常牛逼的是，其推荐的股票里真的是动不动就来个涨停啥的，看的我一愣一愣的。但是，这个哥们，至今还在券商里打工挣那点儿工资，并不得不为了多赚一些奖金而发短信给客户希望能帮他拉点儿新开户的。
另一个，是近期认识的一个投资高人，其在基本面分析及价值投资领域的深刻功力让我极为叹服（我希望自己5年内能够达到他今天的水准）。当然，其早已远远度过了追寻一般性财务自由的阶段。而更让我侧目的，是经过了解后才知道，此人在多年前曾是南方圈子里非常知名的一个技术派高手，属于中国最早的技术派且非常痴迷，多次准确预测并操作过几个历史大底和大顶的辉煌案例。但几年前，其完全的摒弃了技术研究转入价值投资---而且，原因并不是为了追求财产的安全，只是在长时间的反思中认为以前的做法非常非常的得不偿失。
有些问题，是初学者很难领悟的。就像很早前我感慨“最坚定的价值投资者，都曾经是老牌的技术玩家”一样，很矛盾，但其实很好理解。
我提过很多问题，比如：香港历史上曾经出现过几个超级的大牛市，但今天你去香港转转，老百姓还是老百姓，没几个因此发达完成家族财富积累的。为什么？
越接触多投资界的有钱人，你越会发现，其中的绝大多数不是靠技术发家的，而且钱越多的越不是。为什么？
多去看看许多最成功的价值投资者，你会发现其投资生涯的初期都是最痴迷技术研究的，但最终令其成功的全是价值投资。为什么？
股市里大家都知道8亏1平1赚的定律，也即是大家都知道绝大多数人长期来看都注定会是失败者。那么绝大多数人最感兴趣的，是明天的涨跌还是企业的价值呢？
我们都知道任何事情都不是绝对的，明天陨石也有可能就砸到你家门口正在小便的狗狗，但是概率呢？在投资上，什么是大概率的事情而什么是微小概率的事情呢？。。。。。。
我们需要知道的是：
有些问题不想明白，永远没有出头之日。
而最可怜的不是一辈子没想明白，而是当想明白的时候，已经太晚。
人看待世界的时候，不需要排除任何可能性，但人一定要知道，自己的可能性在哪里
一个是我所在券商的投资顾问。每天都会给我发来短信分析市场走势，而且经常推荐近期值得关注的股票。非常牛逼的是，其推荐的股票里真的是动不动就来个涨停啥的，看的我一愣一愣的。但是，这个哥们，至今还在券商里打工挣那点儿工资，并不得不为了多赚一些奖金而发短信给客户希望能帮他拉点儿新开户的。
另一个，是近期认识的一个投资高人，其在基本面分析及价值投资领域的深刻功力让我极为叹服（我希望自己5年内能够达到他今天的水准）。当然，其早已远远度过了追寻一般性财务自由的阶段。而更让我侧目的，是经过了解后才知道，此人在多年前曾是南方圈子里非常知名的一个技术派高手，属于中国最早的技术派且非常痴迷，多次准确预测并操作过几个历史大底和大顶的辉煌案例。但几年前，其完全的摒弃了技术研究转入价值投资---而且，原因并不是为了追求财产的安全，只是在长时间的反思中认为以前的做法非常非常的得不偿失。
有些问题，是初学者很难领悟的。就像很早前我感慨“最坚定的价值投资者，都曾经是老牌的技术玩家”一样，很矛盾，但其实很好理解。
我提过很多问题，比如：香港历史上曾经出现过几个超级的大牛市，但今天你去香港转转，老百姓还是老百姓，没几个因此发达完成家族财富积累的。为什么？
越接触多投资界的有钱人，你越会发现，其中的绝大多数不是靠技术发家的，而且钱越多的越不是。为什么？
多去看看许多最成功的价值投资者，你会发现其投资生涯的初期都是最痴迷技术研究的，但最终令其成功的全是价值投资。为什么？
股市里大家都知道8亏1平1赚的定律，也即是大家都知道绝大多数人长期来看都注定会是失败者。那么绝大多数人最感兴趣的，是明天的涨跌还是企业的价值呢？
我们都知道任何事情都不是绝对的，明天陨石也有可能就砸到你家门口正在小便的狗狗，但是概率呢？在投资上，什么是大概率的事情而什么是微小概率的事情呢？。。。。。。
我们需要知道的是：
有些问题不想明白，永远没有出头之日。
而最可怜的不是一辈子没想明白，而是当想明白的时候，已经太晚。
人看待世界的时候，不需要排除任何可能性，但人一定要知道，自己的可能性在哪里
龚方雄:融资融券和期指是里程碑 看好下周股市
2010年1月10日
东方网1月10日消息：摩根大通中国投资银行副主席龚方雄在浙商证券2010年投资策略报告会上表示，融资融券、股指期货是中国资本市场发展的里程碑，对大盘蓝筹股、银行股带来利好，下周市场有望走出焦灼状态。
龚方雄称，在金融风暴刚刚结束，大家对金融市场，对金融机构，对市场的有效性还存在很多质疑的时候，国家敢于在本世纪第二个年代的伊始坚决果断地推出融资融券、股指期货，这是衍生金融产品，这是金融的一个创新，这非常非常难能可贵。这给资本市场带来的机会就是金融市场大发展的机会，对期货公司，和期货公司相关的板块是一个很重大的利好，对证券公司是一个重大的利好，对大盘、权重股、银行板块等都是重大利好。去年权重股票无人问津，是很明显的价值洼地。在这个时点上推出融资融券，股指期货对这些板块助推力。蓝筹大盘既是价值洼地，又是我们要操作股指期货、融资融券必须关注的板块，同时它们严重的跑输大势，此前不管是机构还是各类投资者都严重的清仓这类板块，所以在这时候推出，对大盘蓝筹尤其是银行板块是重大利好。同时对基金也是一个重大利好。所以融资融券、股指期货是中国资本市场发展史上的里程碑，是资本市场在整个经济发展过程当中的一个非常重要的地位。
龚方雄说，新年的第一个星期股指就出现了下跌，下周由于融资融券、股指期货的推出会给市场带来正面的影响，对大盘蓝筹股有正面的影响，将会扭转整个市场的焦灼状态。
同时，龚方雄表示目前对市场相对谨慎，今年整个资本市场会比较波动，操作比较难，选行业、选股票是关键。基本判断仍然是上半年会比下半年好，但是也有可能会出现全年都好的情况。新浪
东方网1月10日消息：摩根大通中国投资银行副主席龚方雄在浙商证券2010年投资策略报告会上表示，融资融券、股指期货是中国资本市场发展的里程碑，对大盘蓝筹股、银行股带来利好，下周市场有望走出焦灼状态。
龚方雄称，在金融风暴刚刚结束，大家对金融市场，对金融机构，对市场的有效性还存在很多质疑的时候，国家敢于在本世纪第二个年代的伊始坚决果断地推出融资融券、股指期货，这是衍生金融产品，这是金融的一个创新，这非常非常难能可贵。这给资本市场带来的机会就是金融市场大发展的机会，对期货公司，和期货公司相关的板块是一个很重大的利好，对证券公司是一个重大的利好，对大盘、权重股、银行板块等都是重大利好。去年权重股票无人问津，是很明显的价值洼地。在这个时点上推出融资融券，股指期货对这些板块助推力。蓝筹大盘既是价值洼地，又是我们要操作股指期货、融资融券必须关注的板块，同时它们严重的跑输大势，此前不管是机构还是各类投资者都严重的清仓这类板块，所以在这时候推出，对大盘蓝筹尤其是银行板块是重大利好。同时对基金也是一个重大利好。所以融资融券、股指期货是中国资本市场发展史上的里程碑，是资本市场在整个经济发展过程当中的一个非常重要的地位。
龚方雄说，新年的第一个星期股指就出现了下跌，下周由于融资融券、股指期货的推出会给市场带来正面的影响，对大盘蓝筹股有正面的影响，将会扭转整个市场的焦灼状态。
同时，龚方雄表示目前对市场相对谨慎，今年整个资本市场会比较波动，操作比较难，选行业、选股票是关键。基本判断仍然是上半年会比下半年好，但是也有可能会出现全年都好的情况。新浪
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