鸡尾酒会理论的提出
彼得林奇作为世界上最大规模基金的基金经理，他经手的基金市值曾经在13年内翻了29倍。在多年的投资经历中，彼得林奇经历过股市的大起大落，在丰富的实践和经验中，他总结出了著名的“鸡尾酒会理论”。
鸡尾酒会理论
在国外经常举办的鸡尾酒聚会上，不同职业不同阶层的人们彼此相识，聊天。彼得林奇从参加鸡尾酒会的经历上，总结出了判断股市走势的四个阶段：
◆第一阶段，彼得林奇在介绍自己是基金经理时，人们只与他碰杯致意，就漠不关心地走开了。而更多的是围绕在牙医周围，询问自己的牙疼病，或者宁愿谈论明星的绯闻，没有一个人会谈论股票。彼得林奇认为，当人们宁愿谈论牙病也不谈论股票时，股市应该已经探底，不会再有大的下跌空间。
◆第二阶段，彼得林奇在介绍自己是基金经理时，人们会简短地与他聊上几句股票，抱怨一下股市的低迷，接着还是走开了，继续关心自己的牙病和明星的绯闻。彼得林奇认为，当人们只愿意闲聊两句股票而还是更关心自己的牙齿时，股市即将开始抄底反弹。
◆第三阶段，人们在得知彼得林奇是基金经理时，纷纷围过来询问该买哪一支股票，哪支股票能赚钱，股市走势将会如何，而再没有人关心明星绯闻或者牙齿。彼得林奇认为，当人们都来询问基金经理买哪支股票好时，股市应该已经到达阶段性高点。
◆第四阶段，人们在酒会上大谈特谈股票，并且很多人都主动向彼得林奇介绍股票，告诉他去买哪支股票，哪支股票会涨。彼得林奇认为，当人们不再询问该买哪支股票，而是反而主动告诉基金经理买哪支股票好时，股市很可能已经到达高点，大盘即将开始下跌震荡。
与此巧合的是，早在1929年，石油大亨洛克菲勒就曾经得益于以上理念。当时洛克菲勒在街上遇到一个擦皮鞋的小孩子，小孩边给他擦皮鞋边对他说：“先生，您最近买股票了没有，我给您推荐一支股票，肯定涨得好……”洛克菲勒听了心中一惊，一个擦皮鞋的孩子都开始给别人推荐起股票来，看来股市大限已经不远了。回到公司，洛克菲勒立刻下令将所有股票清仓，一支不留。果然，两个月之后就迎来了华尔街崩盘，多少人在一夜之间倾家荡产，而洛克菲勒在这场风暴中安然度过。
著名而经典的“鸡尾酒会理论”，直到今时今日仍然可以将股市“一言概之”。
鸡尾酒理论的误读
股市愈波动，市面上流传的故事就愈有趣，近期的中国股市开始流行三个具有异曲同工之妙的故事：故事一，一个英国基金经理在上海地摊上买DVD时，摊主告诉他应该买某只股票，被基金经理戏称为“肯尼迪时刻”再现；故事二，一个证券营业部门口卖报的老太根据“报纸不好卖就买股票、报纸卖得好就卖股票”经验屡次得手，可是从去年开始她的这个绝招失灵了；故事三，一个内地券商高管在香港公干，交易所门口的擦鞋匠建议他买某只股票，他根据经验立即在圣诞节左右清了仓，可是他这次踏了个空。
这三个故事无一例外都是围绕“擦鞋匠理论”而展开情节的，即当华尔街上的擦鞋匠都开始炒股票时可能是一种危险的信号。据说美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪的父亲就是在听完一个擦鞋匠对股市侃侃而谈后抛光股票，从而躲过1929年的那场股灾。其实类似的说法在中国也是屡见不鲜，例如“连卖菜的老太都炒股了股市就危险了”的说法早已成为现实中一些人自以为聪明的“经验之谈”。
而那些无论是从擦鞋匠还是卖菜老太的入市行为中来判断趋势的投资者，往往忽视了这样一个最基本的时间和空间概念：人们因为股市赚钱效应而不断进入股市，是一个不断积累的长期过程，而股市出现实质性逆转是一个瞬间，仅从一个瞬间的历史截图去研判趋势、总结规律是荒唐的，这正如地震前动物会出现不吃食物和不归家等异常现象，但是仅根据家里的猫狗不吃食或者好几天没回家走失了，就能得出将要地震的结论吗？可见，如果作为结果出现后的现象之一描述，“擦鞋匠理论”是值得重视的，若把它看作一种存在必然关联的因果判断，“擦鞋匠理论”自然跳不出“有数千次失败而只有最后一次成功”的尴尬。
实际上，对于这种现象探究最详尽的莫过于投资大师彼得·林奇的“鸡尾酒会理论”。彼得·林奇从参加鸡尾酒会中发现这样一种现象：当客人对牙医而不是他感兴趣时，往往是股市低迷或者刚启动阶段；当人们爱和他稍微聊聊股票时，股市处于刚上涨15％的阶段；当包括牙医在内的所有人都围着他时，股市处于上涨30％的阶段；而当人们都开始向他推荐股票时，正是股市已达到峰巅进入下跌的准确信号。不过最关键也往往最容易被忽略不提的是，林奇经常提醒人们对“鸡尾酒会理论”不要盲目迷信，因为这不属于放之四海而皆准的法则。
可见，以上这些理论和故事中唯一蕴藏不变的股市真谛是：股市中那些经常和群体心理相悖的人，有时更容易摸准市场的脉搏。或许可以这样理解，当整个市场都在嘲笑擦鞋匠和卖菜老太时，很可能就是擦鞋匠和卖菜老太们的行为获得市场奖赏的时候。对于这种现象，从毛泽东思想的角度来进行纠正就是要“反对经验主义、反对教条主义、反对本本主义”，用《老子·道德经》来解释则是“道可道，非常道”，而按照通俗的说法就是“顺势而为，逆向思维”。
Friday, May 1, 2009
对如何投资成功的思考
(一）
在股市没有绝对的一种赚钱方式，有的人天才卓越对时势（政治、经济、货币）和大众心理面的潮汐变化有足够的敏感和警觉，这些人善于评估大势，肯用心思考未来，他们是大投资客，赚的是大波动；有些人执着于企业基本面的分析，这些人把他们精心挑选的股票作为一项资产看守，耐心等待企业的成长为自己创造财富，他们赚的是企业的价值回归和成长---- 成功的原因因各人而异，但是失败的原因却如此相同：
那些专注于短期的投资者最终都是资本输家。
一个人要首先学会避免失败才能走向成功，学会了不亏钱才能赚钱。
短线玩家短期内或许赚钱，或许亏钱，但是到最后一定赚不到大钱，最经常发生的是亏大钱。
过于紧张关注短期波动有害于思考，在股市上常常要闭上眼睛才能看得更清。
无论做实业还是做股市投资不把眼光放长远，则必然迷失于眼下。拥有远视眼的人比近视眼更易成功。对于那些解释和预测短期波动的评论，完全多余而且毫无用处，你唯一该做的就是充耳不闻！
通往成功的路在何方？如何让自己看得更远更清？我们可以向行业内最优秀的人学习----这是个捷径
2007年的Berkshire Hathaway股东大会上，一个17岁的年轻人向巴菲特提问：
“成为一个好的投资者的最好方法是什么？”
巴菲特回答说：
“尽可能多的阅读。…当我10岁的时候，我就把在奥马哈公立图书馆里能找到的投资方面的书都读完了。”
如果一个人尽可能多地了解真实世界的知识，长期下来各类知识和经验的化学反应会形成一套可靠的思维方式和投资哲学，当机会来临时，做出正确的投资决策不过是一种习惯。
（二）
“一个懂得很多的笨蛋，比无知者还要加倍愚蠢”。-------莫里哀
“大多数人宁愿去死也不愿去思考。许多人真这样做了。”------伯特兰.罗素
重要的不是知识，而是思维方式。
有两种思维方式至关重要---独立思考和逆向思考。
两者其实颇有共通之处---清醒的金融头脑至关重要
两者都是知易行难
独立思考要求你绝对的理性，对于一般人还有所谓专家甚至是内部知情人，重要的不是听他们都说了什么，而是对他们所说的嗤之以鼻。这要求你特立独行，甚至玩世不恭。有些人总是相信别人比自己知道的更多---邻家的草坪为什么更绿？一个常识是只有少数人能成功，如果你的想法与大多数相同，那么你的结局与大多数人也必无二样！
逆向思考要求你绝对的冷静，不是简单的逆反行为（同从众行为一样愚蠢）---事实上和明显的大众趋势作对很危险，而是在别人疯狂的时候，保持清醒头脑的能力---这需要基本常识和人性修炼，这类人明白一个简单的道理：时机的好坏与众人的看法恰恰相反。
血溅街头时正是购物的好时机，每个人慌着往出口逃逸，你面对的是个出清的市场，那些你一直向往而买不到的优质资产竟然打对折甩卖，而且带着别人的鲜血---你要拥有的是个嗜血鲨鱼的贪婪和兴奋而不是一般人的恐慌和悲观。这个时间的大众心理特征是多数人心灰意懒，悲观情绪渲染仿佛末日来临，当年纷纷抢购的优质资产也无人问津。
同样在每个人都兴奋着谈论股票，贪婪无度地买进时那是你抛售的时候。这个时间的大众心理特征是多数人为明显高估的市场寻找继续维持的理由，对可能的甚至已经出现的利空视而不见或有意忽略。
矫枉过正、爱走极端是市场先生改不掉的老脾气，你要做的是就是耐心等待他的脾气发作然后狠狠地敲他的竹杠。
人类有种思维倾向：否认不合常理的情形不可持续，而且在这种情形向常理回归时继续否认！直到明显的趋势出现时他们才陡然醒悟，然后急迫加入，导致这种回归趋势加速完成而且往往走得更远---又一次远离常理，不过是反方向的背离。然后是趋势再次不可持续和反转。如此周而复始。
所有人都否认常理时，一个大的趋势就要开始了！
一个人要投资成功，首先要是个训练有素的大众心理学家，这需要绝对的理性、绝对的冷静，操作上更要求你绝对的坚韧不拔。
总之一句话，不走寻常路，让别人走着瞧吧
（三）
论耐心
无论你使用什么样的方法挑选股票，决定成败的关键在于一种能力--不受市场波动的干扰，坚持到投资获得成功的能力。决定股票挑选者命运的不是他们的头脑，而是他们的耐力。敏感的投资者，无论他有多聪明，往往经受不住命运不经意的打击，而被赶出股市。 ------彼得.林奇
我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱，总是我坚持不动替我赚大钱，懂了吗？是我坚持不动！
能够同时判断准确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
原因在于一个人可能看得清楚而明确，却在市场从容不迫，准备照他认为一定会走的方向走时，他变得不耐烦或怀疑起来。市场并没有打败他们，他们打败了自己，因为他们虽然有头脑，却无法坚持不动.--J Livermore
耐心也许是证券交易所里最重要的东西，而缺乏耐心是最常见的错误。
如果投机交易中的各个要素都有效，剩下的只是时间问题，但大多数投资者缺乏对当中发生的狂风暴雨处之泰然的耐心和毅力，他们一看到指数下跌，便立刻惊慌失措，卖掉所有股票。 ----安德烈.科斯托兰尼
耐心，再怎么强调也不为过，耐心在股市不仅是一种不可少的性情，更是一种不可少的能力。
耐心等待你的投资标的为你创造利润，如果你不给它时间，它如何向你充分展现一个未来的画面？耐心还要求你等待合理的低价去买入，你买入的理由是你对现时的评估和对未来的展望，低价吸纳以待未来。在股市，时间范畴决定获利空间，股市不会一天就涨上天，耐心等待买入的价格出现---是价格锐减时，还要耐心等待卖出的价格出现---是价格大幅上涨时，而期间的涨幅就是对你耐心的回报。价格上涨是你买股票的结果，而不能作为你买股票的理由，仅仅因为价格上涨了就急于买入是大忌。
在股市没有绝对的一种赚钱方式，有的人天才卓越对时势（政治、经济、货币）和大众心理面的潮汐变化有足够的敏感和警觉，这些人善于评估大势，肯用心思考未来，他们是大投资客，赚的是大波动；有些人执着于企业基本面的分析，这些人把他们精心挑选的股票作为一项资产看守，耐心等待企业的成长为自己创造财富，他们赚的是企业的价值回归和成长---- 成功的原因因各人而异，但是失败的原因却如此相同：
那些专注于短期的投资者最终都是资本输家。
一个人要首先学会避免失败才能走向成功，学会了不亏钱才能赚钱。
短线玩家短期内或许赚钱，或许亏钱，但是到最后一定赚不到大钱，最经常发生的是亏大钱。
过于紧张关注短期波动有害于思考，在股市上常常要闭上眼睛才能看得更清。
无论做实业还是做股市投资不把眼光放长远，则必然迷失于眼下。拥有远视眼的人比近视眼更易成功。对于那些解释和预测短期波动的评论，完全多余而且毫无用处，你唯一该做的就是充耳不闻！
通往成功的路在何方？如何让自己看得更远更清？我们可以向行业内最优秀的人学习----这是个捷径
2007年的Berkshire Hathaway股东大会上，一个17岁的年轻人向巴菲特提问：
“成为一个好的投资者的最好方法是什么？”
巴菲特回答说：
“尽可能多的阅读。…当我10岁的时候，我就把在奥马哈公立图书馆里能找到的投资方面的书都读完了。”
如果一个人尽可能多地了解真实世界的知识，长期下来各类知识和经验的化学反应会形成一套可靠的思维方式和投资哲学，当机会来临时，做出正确的投资决策不过是一种习惯。
（二）
“一个懂得很多的笨蛋，比无知者还要加倍愚蠢”。-------莫里哀
“大多数人宁愿去死也不愿去思考。许多人真这样做了。”------伯特兰.罗素
重要的不是知识，而是思维方式。
有两种思维方式至关重要---独立思考和逆向思考。
两者其实颇有共通之处---清醒的金融头脑至关重要
两者都是知易行难
独立思考要求你绝对的理性，对于一般人还有所谓专家甚至是内部知情人，重要的不是听他们都说了什么，而是对他们所说的嗤之以鼻。这要求你特立独行，甚至玩世不恭。有些人总是相信别人比自己知道的更多---邻家的草坪为什么更绿？一个常识是只有少数人能成功，如果你的想法与大多数相同，那么你的结局与大多数人也必无二样！
逆向思考要求你绝对的冷静，不是简单的逆反行为（同从众行为一样愚蠢）---事实上和明显的大众趋势作对很危险，而是在别人疯狂的时候，保持清醒头脑的能力---这需要基本常识和人性修炼，这类人明白一个简单的道理：时机的好坏与众人的看法恰恰相反。
血溅街头时正是购物的好时机，每个人慌着往出口逃逸，你面对的是个出清的市场，那些你一直向往而买不到的优质资产竟然打对折甩卖，而且带着别人的鲜血---你要拥有的是个嗜血鲨鱼的贪婪和兴奋而不是一般人的恐慌和悲观。这个时间的大众心理特征是多数人心灰意懒，悲观情绪渲染仿佛末日来临，当年纷纷抢购的优质资产也无人问津。
同样在每个人都兴奋着谈论股票，贪婪无度地买进时那是你抛售的时候。这个时间的大众心理特征是多数人为明显高估的市场寻找继续维持的理由，对可能的甚至已经出现的利空视而不见或有意忽略。
矫枉过正、爱走极端是市场先生改不掉的老脾气，你要做的是就是耐心等待他的脾气发作然后狠狠地敲他的竹杠。
人类有种思维倾向：否认不合常理的情形不可持续，而且在这种情形向常理回归时继续否认！直到明显的趋势出现时他们才陡然醒悟，然后急迫加入，导致这种回归趋势加速完成而且往往走得更远---又一次远离常理，不过是反方向的背离。然后是趋势再次不可持续和反转。如此周而复始。
所有人都否认常理时，一个大的趋势就要开始了！
一个人要投资成功，首先要是个训练有素的大众心理学家，这需要绝对的理性、绝对的冷静，操作上更要求你绝对的坚韧不拔。
总之一句话，不走寻常路，让别人走着瞧吧
（三）
论耐心
无论你使用什么样的方法挑选股票，决定成败的关键在于一种能力--不受市场波动的干扰，坚持到投资获得成功的能力。决定股票挑选者命运的不是他们的头脑，而是他们的耐力。敏感的投资者，无论他有多聪明，往往经受不住命运不经意的打击，而被赶出股市。 ------彼得.林奇
我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱，总是我坚持不动替我赚大钱，懂了吗？是我坚持不动！
能够同时判断准确又坚持不动的人很罕见，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。
原因在于一个人可能看得清楚而明确，却在市场从容不迫，准备照他认为一定会走的方向走时，他变得不耐烦或怀疑起来。市场并没有打败他们，他们打败了自己，因为他们虽然有头脑，却无法坚持不动.--J Livermore
耐心也许是证券交易所里最重要的东西，而缺乏耐心是最常见的错误。
如果投机交易中的各个要素都有效，剩下的只是时间问题，但大多数投资者缺乏对当中发生的狂风暴雨处之泰然的耐心和毅力，他们一看到指数下跌，便立刻惊慌失措，卖掉所有股票。 ----安德烈.科斯托兰尼
耐心，再怎么强调也不为过，耐心在股市不仅是一种不可少的性情，更是一种不可少的能力。
耐心等待你的投资标的为你创造利润，如果你不给它时间，它如何向你充分展现一个未来的画面？耐心还要求你等待合理的低价去买入，你买入的理由是你对现时的评估和对未来的展望，低价吸纳以待未来。在股市，时间范畴决定获利空间，股市不会一天就涨上天，耐心等待买入的价格出现---是价格锐减时，还要耐心等待卖出的价格出现---是价格大幅上涨时，而期间的涨幅就是对你耐心的回报。价格上涨是你买股票的结果，而不能作为你买股票的理由，仅仅因为价格上涨了就急于买入是大忌。
牛市还是牛市陷阱?
市场反弹到今天，已经处于牛皮状态。我推荐买指数基金的朋友，我以宁愿错过，不要买错为理由，让他们清仓等待。是对是错不重要，对了也许是运气，错了呢，也不会给那些朋友带来金钱上的实际损失。
香港曹仁超先生的《论势》《论战》《论性》三本书，我沉浸其中，收获不少。对于曹仁超，我的态度有过反复，以前读他在《信报》上的《投资者日记》活泼风趣、诸多有用的资讯和观点，但只是当一般财经文章来读，没有从投资的角度去吸收养分。当我2006年开始研究并信服价值投资理念后，像所有初学者一样，对价值投资有点走火入魔，只要不是价值投资理论就当是垃圾，不再看一眼。就在那段时间，我不再看曹仁超的文章，我认为他太技术，太短期了。但是2008年的大熊市，面对股价下跌，完全束手无策，价值投资在下跌时，如果公司是有价值的，应该继续买入。但作为个人投资者没有那么雄厚的资金，买入的机会当然不能获得。如果当时买入，还要承受下跌50%的风险。经历一段煎熬时间后，到今天看来，就是买入后下跌50%也是值得的。但是有没有可能避免50%的下跌，免掉一年半载的心理煎熬呢？这是我在2008年过去以后的疑问。阶段性的思考成果是《跟随还是预测》，但是要解决这个疑问其实并不容易。现在曹仁超对我有了一定的价值，我经过2008年后，认为作为投资者心胸要开阔，要谦虚，对于各种理论和流派，如果有可能有时间不妨涉猎一下。手头曹仁超的三本书成为了我很好的参考资料，让我在思考这个疑问上又往前走了一大步。
眼下人们对于这波行情是不是牛市争议颇多。只是因为读了曹仁超先生的书，想把他在香港股市上的经验应用到大陆A股。他判断牛熊有一个技术标准，就是50天移动平均线上穿250天均线，为黄金交叉，是牛市的确认，而50天均线下穿250天均线，是死亡交叉，是熊市的确认。读了曹先生的书，也想见见他这个人，正好4月23日他来京向农家女学校捐赠版税，我有幸能和他见上一面并当面请教一些问题。由于语言障碍，见面的感觉不如读书痛快。他当时出示了道指、恒指、深圳综指和上海综指的走势图，深圳综指的走势图上50天均线上穿250天均线，是一个黄金交叉，如果完全从技术上来看，深圳的牛市已经确立。但是曹先生说，中国经济和美国经济不能脱钩，中国股市这次的脱钩是否是假象？中国股市的这次反弹是中国政府经济刺激计划起了作用。从技术上看，1974年港股的恒指也曾经出现这样的信号，但随后继续下跌，证明这个信号是一个牛市陷阱。中国A股这次可能也会是这种牛市陷阱吗？可能性较大，但不好确定。
从4月23日到今天又过了4个交易日，市场依然在牛皮状态，上下窄幅调整。这两天猪流感导致全球投资者恐慌，这种压力也在A股市场上出现。从去年11月初到今天的股市上升，很大程度上来自政府的经济刺激计划带来的信心，同时在银行层面投放了大量的流动性，这些流动性通过给员工发工资、给供应商发货款和采购新的生产资料等等各种形式进入居民和企业手中，而这些资金有可能通过申购基金或直接入市进入股市，这次股市的上升行情，很大程度上是流动性推动的。但如此大规模投放流动性是不可持续的，而经济基本面的数据却是逐渐变坏，虽然最坏时刻过去了，但体现在数据上的最坏好像刚刚开始。基本面的最坏数据是把股市拉下来的力量。流动性和基本面两种向下的拉力，确实很难延续当前的行情。虽然技术上是牛市征兆，但经济的实际情况不支持牛市，用曹先生的话说是：技术面最终臣服基本面。
A股的这次上升行情，不是牛市，更可能是牛市陷阱？对于价值投资者来说，也许是机会。因为在大势不好的时候，只有发展确定性非常高的优秀公司会给投资者提供持续不断的稳定盈利，在未来一段时间里，挖掘有潜力的优质公司才是保证未来盈利的唯一稳妥的方式。
香港曹仁超先生的《论势》《论战》《论性》三本书，我沉浸其中，收获不少。对于曹仁超，我的态度有过反复，以前读他在《信报》上的《投资者日记》活泼风趣、诸多有用的资讯和观点，但只是当一般财经文章来读，没有从投资的角度去吸收养分。当我2006年开始研究并信服价值投资理念后，像所有初学者一样，对价值投资有点走火入魔，只要不是价值投资理论就当是垃圾，不再看一眼。就在那段时间，我不再看曹仁超的文章，我认为他太技术，太短期了。但是2008年的大熊市，面对股价下跌，完全束手无策，价值投资在下跌时，如果公司是有价值的，应该继续买入。但作为个人投资者没有那么雄厚的资金，买入的机会当然不能获得。如果当时买入，还要承受下跌50%的风险。经历一段煎熬时间后，到今天看来，就是买入后下跌50%也是值得的。但是有没有可能避免50%的下跌，免掉一年半载的心理煎熬呢？这是我在2008年过去以后的疑问。阶段性的思考成果是《跟随还是预测》，但是要解决这个疑问其实并不容易。现在曹仁超对我有了一定的价值，我经过2008年后，认为作为投资者心胸要开阔，要谦虚，对于各种理论和流派，如果有可能有时间不妨涉猎一下。手头曹仁超的三本书成为了我很好的参考资料，让我在思考这个疑问上又往前走了一大步。
眼下人们对于这波行情是不是牛市争议颇多。只是因为读了曹仁超先生的书，想把他在香港股市上的经验应用到大陆A股。他判断牛熊有一个技术标准，就是50天移动平均线上穿250天均线，为黄金交叉，是牛市的确认，而50天均线下穿250天均线，是死亡交叉，是熊市的确认。读了曹先生的书，也想见见他这个人，正好4月23日他来京向农家女学校捐赠版税，我有幸能和他见上一面并当面请教一些问题。由于语言障碍，见面的感觉不如读书痛快。他当时出示了道指、恒指、深圳综指和上海综指的走势图，深圳综指的走势图上50天均线上穿250天均线，是一个黄金交叉，如果完全从技术上来看，深圳的牛市已经确立。但是曹先生说，中国经济和美国经济不能脱钩，中国股市这次的脱钩是否是假象？中国股市的这次反弹是中国政府经济刺激计划起了作用。从技术上看，1974年港股的恒指也曾经出现这样的信号，但随后继续下跌，证明这个信号是一个牛市陷阱。中国A股这次可能也会是这种牛市陷阱吗？可能性较大，但不好确定。
从4月23日到今天又过了4个交易日，市场依然在牛皮状态，上下窄幅调整。这两天猪流感导致全球投资者恐慌，这种压力也在A股市场上出现。从去年11月初到今天的股市上升，很大程度上来自政府的经济刺激计划带来的信心，同时在银行层面投放了大量的流动性，这些流动性通过给员工发工资、给供应商发货款和采购新的生产资料等等各种形式进入居民和企业手中，而这些资金有可能通过申购基金或直接入市进入股市，这次股市的上升行情，很大程度上是流动性推动的。但如此大规模投放流动性是不可持续的，而经济基本面的数据却是逐渐变坏，虽然最坏时刻过去了，但体现在数据上的最坏好像刚刚开始。基本面的最坏数据是把股市拉下来的力量。流动性和基本面两种向下的拉力，确实很难延续当前的行情。虽然技术上是牛市征兆，但经济的实际情况不支持牛市，用曹先生的话说是：技术面最终臣服基本面。
A股的这次上升行情，不是牛市，更可能是牛市陷阱？对于价值投资者来说，也许是机会。因为在大势不好的时候，只有发展确定性非常高的优秀公司会给投资者提供持续不断的稳定盈利，在未来一段时间里，挖掘有潜力的优质公司才是保证未来盈利的唯一稳妥的方式。
彼得林奇的“鸡尾酒会”理论
虽然身为专业人士中的翘楚，但是彼得林奇却对自己专业人士的身份不以为然，更喜欢以业余投资者的视角去预测趋势，其中透过参加酒会观察投资者情绪的“鸡尾酒会”理论堪称经典。
在股市上涨的第一阶段，也就是牛熊交替期，人们都不愿意谈论股市。当彼得林奇参加酒会时，与会者大多会对彼得林奇基金经理的身份不屑一顾。在股市上涨的第二阶段，彼得林奇参加酒会时，人们开始有兴趣与他交谈，但主要议题是告诫他股票市场的风险有多大。在股市上涨的第三个阶段，彼得林奇开始成为酒会上的明星，人们兴致勃勃地围绕其左右，热情而又虔诚地向他咨询如何选股。在股市上涨的第四个阶段，人们再度簇拥着彼得林奇，但此时却是别人成为了老师，向彼得林奇推荐股票，而且推荐的股票往往涨幅还真不错——这时就是股市已经接近最高点而将要下跌的准确信号。
对照A股的表现，彼得林奇的经验同样值得借鉴。2007年“5·30”之前的A股市场情绪，显然与“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第四阶段市场投资情绪极其类似；而随后推崇基金经理诱发的蓝筹股行情又与“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第三阶段市场投资情绪相仿。那么现在呢？很显然投资情绪更接近“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第二阶段。与6124点相比2500点仍是低谷，上证综指估值处于20倍市盈率下方也难言整体泡沫，但自1664点上涨以来，似乎“告诫股市风险有多大”的声音更大些。
向上趋势总是在犹豫中展开的，股市上涨的第二阶段围绕着诸多的看空声未必是件坏事，反而有助于牛市不会因疯牛症的狂躁而过早夭折，但投资者关键是不要被上升途中的调整所吓跑。目前支撑A股上行趋势的基本面仍然十分清晰。首先，股市的上涨符合宏观经济快速反弹的“黑天鹅”特征，逆周期的投资策略是把握本轮牛市反弹的关键。其次，A股整体估值仍处于合理区域，估值回升空间就是未来股指再上台阶的基础。在适度宽松的货币政策淡出之前，资金流动性仍将充沛。
从股指运行趋势分析，波动可能会与2006年中期的箱型整理格局相似，但2579点将不会是箱体的顶部，而近日股指调整的低点则将形成箱体的底部。前周深交所提醒投资者概念股炒作的风险，令市场规避了快速步入第四阶段疯牛的可能。而蓝筹股涨幅有限，令市场目前也没有进入上涨的第三阶段。因此，现阶段的回调仍给投资者提供了买入的良机。
在股市上涨的第一阶段，也就是牛熊交替期，人们都不愿意谈论股市。当彼得林奇参加酒会时，与会者大多会对彼得林奇基金经理的身份不屑一顾。在股市上涨的第二阶段，彼得林奇参加酒会时，人们开始有兴趣与他交谈，但主要议题是告诫他股票市场的风险有多大。在股市上涨的第三个阶段，彼得林奇开始成为酒会上的明星，人们兴致勃勃地围绕其左右，热情而又虔诚地向他咨询如何选股。在股市上涨的第四个阶段，人们再度簇拥着彼得林奇，但此时却是别人成为了老师，向彼得林奇推荐股票，而且推荐的股票往往涨幅还真不错——这时就是股市已经接近最高点而将要下跌的准确信号。
对照A股的表现，彼得林奇的经验同样值得借鉴。2007年“5·30”之前的A股市场情绪，显然与“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第四阶段市场投资情绪极其类似；而随后推崇基金经理诱发的蓝筹股行情又与“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第三阶段市场投资情绪相仿。那么现在呢？很显然投资情绪更接近“鸡尾酒会”理论中描述的第二阶段。与6124点相比2500点仍是低谷，上证综指估值处于20倍市盈率下方也难言整体泡沫，但自1664点上涨以来，似乎“告诫股市风险有多大”的声音更大些。
向上趋势总是在犹豫中展开的，股市上涨的第二阶段围绕着诸多的看空声未必是件坏事，反而有助于牛市不会因疯牛症的狂躁而过早夭折，但投资者关键是不要被上升途中的调整所吓跑。目前支撑A股上行趋势的基本面仍然十分清晰。首先，股市的上涨符合宏观经济快速反弹的“黑天鹅”特征，逆周期的投资策略是把握本轮牛市反弹的关键。其次，A股整体估值仍处于合理区域，估值回升空间就是未来股指再上台阶的基础。在适度宽松的货币政策淡出之前，资金流动性仍将充沛。
从股指运行趋势分析，波动可能会与2006年中期的箱型整理格局相似，但2579点将不会是箱体的顶部，而近日股指调整的低点则将形成箱体的底部。前周深交所提醒投资者概念股炒作的风险，令市场规避了快速步入第四阶段疯牛的可能。而蓝筹股涨幅有限，令市场目前也没有进入上涨的第三阶段。因此，现阶段的回调仍给投资者提供了买入的良机。
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
港股明灯”曹仁超：2010年起A股将进入牛市
投资之道暗合太极图--盛极而衰，衰极而盛。"港股明灯"曹仁超深谙此道，把近40年来的致富之道一字以蔽之："势"，正是因为成功御"势"，他在港岛打下了2亿港元财富。"其中85%是我炒股赚来的。"4月23日，在北京丽晶酒店接受采访时老曹对《红周刊》记者说。那么，现在股市之"势"运行到哪个阶段？
A股走W，小牛可能被杀掉
《红周刊》：美股和港股已经进入了熊市二期，您判断A股目前处于什么阶段？
老曹：上证综指刚上穿了年线，按照这个理论A股牛市已经开始了。但是在港股和美股都还在熊市二期时，A股可不可以进入到牛市一期呢？我很怀疑。可能A股这波反弹行情只是"走势陷阱"，因为它是在中国政府4万亿的政策刺激下出现的。我担心两件事：一是如果A股市场很强，那么可以拉起香港乃至美国市场；二是糟糕的香港和美国市场将A股市场的估值再拉下来。
A股是否会与港股、美股分道扬镳？现在看来，美国和香港经济短期内不可能回升，仅有中国内地经济回暖，也不可能支撑A股进入真正的牛市。最后的结果可能是，A股这个小牛很轻易地就被美股和港股杀掉了。如果我的推测正确的话，那么A股市场的走势不是V形而是W形，2008年四季度已经有了第一个底，我想另一个底就在今年秋天。
《红周刊》：如果是这样的话，投资者应该采取怎样的操作策略？
老曹："half-glass water"，现在A股投资者面对的就是半杯开水，情况好不到哪里也坏不到哪里。所以，最好的策略就是"buy after dip, sell after peak"(跌了就买，涨了就卖)。这仅是一个交易机会，要不停地买进来卖出去。你可用W形思路去操作股票，如果在去年四季度买入的话，你不妨在今年4-5月份卖出，到今年秋天可以再买进来。市场会提供一个很好的投资机会，因为中国经济在全世界是好的，我相信今年秋天的第二个底部不会低于2008年11月。
《红周刊》：您在《论势》中说，2010年10月前中国将迎来下一个牛市，依据是什么？
老曹：美国牛市经历了百年繁荣后盛极而衰，而中国刚好相反，还是一个小BB，有钱的人刚刚跑步进入股市，把市场PE推高到了70多倍，这种疯狂的大牛市是任何股市走向成熟的必经过程，就像人年轻的时候，很乱很天真很疯狂。A股刚刚经历了一个少年张狂的时期，这个时期的指数图形类似于1973年的港股，1929年的美股，我一点都不陌生。不过经过这次疯狂后，从今年开始A股将成为一个更加成熟的市场。
判断熊市在明年10月前结束，是因为据我的经验，每个市场熊市一般不超过3年，香港在1974年时大约经历了12个月的熊市，美国1929年股灾时经历了28个月熊市。如果按这样算的话，A股熊市则很有可能在2010年上半年前结束。
太阳升起在中国
《红周刊》："有智慧不如趁势"浓缩了您40年的投资智慧，我们应该如何理解"势"？
老曹："势"是大气候，它不以人的主观愿望而改变。如果大气候向淡的话，不论你多么努力都难以改变命运，但是当大气候向好的时候，你就是不努力都可以赚钱。有人对我说曹先生，你很发达是因为你很聪明，错了！1967年我刚出来工作，香港经济形势很差，但是我赶上了之后30年的繁荣期，你就是瞎子也都可以赚到钱（老曹微闭双眼笑着说）。但是如果你1997年后工作，刚好赶上金融危机再怎么努力都是负资产，当你刚摆脱负资产时，雷曼兄弟又来了！大趋势对香港人都是不利的。
而从1978到2007年，中国经济"砰"的爆炸了！大陆不管炒股还是做生意只要奋斗都能赚钱。即使2008年股市大跌，放在长远的时间背景来看中国经济还是非常好的，A股也将进入一个稳定的市场，不会再跌的吓死人了。所以我要向全世界通告：if you want to make money ,please come to china, go east ！
太阳已经在东方升起来了！所有投资中国的人可能眼前吃亏，因为A股目前还看不到底部，但是从20~25年来看，当下投资的每一块钱在未来都会double，我有钱，我会投在你身上，因为你（记者）年轻，未来赚的钱一定比现在多，但是就不要投资在我身上，我今年60岁了，30年后我90岁了，投资在我身上钱可能会输光。
《红周刊》：但是就现在经济情况看，大家觉得日子很难捱。
老曹：中国经济正在痛苦转型。工业追逐的是"三低一高"，即土地成本低、工资低、税收低，流动人口高，30年后，这些因素慢慢地都消失了，你还想要点儿优惠？政府会说，先搞环保再说!工业生存的整个环境都改变了，很多企业都跑到印度等更有优势的国家，就像1980年时香港工业向珠三角转移那样。
但是赚了30年的钱后，内地的港口、金融、物流等服务业慢慢开启了，上海、深圳的港口收费比香港便宜，抢走了香港、台湾、韩国的生意。不过服务业的发展速度还是不能弥补工业快速下跌带来的负面影响，而工业对GDP的贡献约在4成，这将很难保证GDP保持从前的高速，今年一季度GDP同比增6.1%，我认为里面还是有水分的，可能里面有2~3个百分点是政府投资拉动的，GDP由高变低的过程很痛苦，这几年中国正是青黄不接的时候，但是将来是好的，关键是能不能捱过去。
避开命苦行业股票
《红周刊》：以上您都是说大气候，你也曾经对行业有过分析，看淡农业、零售类股票，还一再提醒投资者不要沾手金融股，原因是？
老曹：有些行业注定命苦，有"明星相"的农业企业少得很，我看不到有一个农夫发家致富的。我妈妈家是大地主，但是从5岁开始到20岁嫁到我家，衣服从来都有补丁的，不看好零售股因为门槛太低了，竞争得很厉害，无法长期保持高边际利润。只有你的零售店开得好，通过购并将竞争对手统统吃掉，才能做成美国的沃尔玛。但是今天呢？中国零售业还是群雄割据，还看不出谁最后会胜出。
不让沾手金融股是就中短线来说的，过去一年来不少国际银行变成了"僵尸银行"，政府敲打一下，才跳一跳，使得全球银行业前景看跌。过去汇丰银行多好啊，工商银行算老几？金融危机后不同了，汇丰投资美国亏损了，内地银行上去了！并且今天再买汇丰也失去了前30年那样的高成长了，而"六行三保"建设银行、招商银行、工商银行、中国银行、交通银行、中信银行、中国人寿、中国平安、中国财险却提供了同样的机会，银行股长线看好，但是短线会很辛苦。
《红周刊》：对"3W"（Where、When、What），您已经回答了前两个W，那么投资者交易哪只股票呢？再推荐一次吧？
老曹：我对A股不熟悉很难答复你，即使是对港股我熟悉的股票也不过50多家。在了解行业盛衰周期后，必须学习阅读上市公司年报，从一个小股东的角度去了解上市公司的情况，甚至把自己当成该公司的老板，去决定到底是该买还是该卖？
投资战，求之于势
《红周刊》：那谈谈大类资产配置吧，报道说您每月都会买一枚金币以备不虞。
老曹：我买金币是上世纪80年代的事情，已经全部获利回吐了。我现在不看好黄金，支撑金价的因素有：一是High-inflation（高通胀），二是Emergency Currency（金融危机时发行的支付手段）。这两样东西未来很难再发生了：美国的高通胀在上世纪70-80年代结束了，香港也在90年代结束了，而中国通胀2007年结束了。婴儿潮带来的消费繁荣过去了，美国人不消费了，而中国人想消费但是没有钱，所以很难再出现一个极高的通胀率了。
《红周刊》：上世纪70年代您投资房地产赚了大钱，现在您怎么看这个行业？
老曹：如果没有高通胀推动，美国房地产增长率为2.5%，你对这个数字满意的话，就可以买楼或者房地产股做只乌龟，因为这类资产很安全，而且一有风吹草动马上可以缩头。如果你中意做乌龟的话，OK，you may do it ,but stupid ！（你可以做，但是很笨）内地房地产还独有城市化这个推动力，所以相对外围来说，房地产或许还会慢慢上去。
《红周刊》：您也用了很多技术指标，最常用的是哪些？
老曹：我用的最多的技术指标是MACD、RSI、VIX，这些指标告诉我，投资大众什么时候疯狂什么时候害怕。250天移动均线决定了大趋势，也很重要。这些指标对整个大趋势的影响不大，假设你用这些指标分析走熊的日本股市还会犯大错。
《红周刊》：您也看基本面分析，两者怎么结合起来看？
老曹：技术分析和基本面分析就像李小龙把咏春拳和西洋拳合用，如果没有基本面分析去配合，你打出来拳很好看，但只是花拳绣腿，因为你身体差嘛！如果我身体好，打出来的拳又好，打你一拳你都要倒三天。很多中小投资者只看技术指标买卖股票往往失败，因为他们从来都不明白大趋势，也不了解买的股票是干什么的。这类投资者只能算作玩家，在股市里玩，是要输钱的。
后记：采访结束后，老曹再三提醒记者要执行止损，他1974年在恒指暴跌73%后入场抄底"和记"，亏了80%，只想跳海。后来他总结出"止损不止赚，加涨不加跌"，严格按照15%止损，一直活到了今天，且近40年财富增长了4万倍。老曹说，"巴菲特搭乘了美国1982年最后一班繁荣号顺风车，而现在'雪人'正在融化，他的长期持有策略不适合所有市场，任何时候投资者都应用止损保护自己的利益。"
A股走W，小牛可能被杀掉
《红周刊》：美股和港股已经进入了熊市二期，您判断A股目前处于什么阶段？
老曹：上证综指刚上穿了年线，按照这个理论A股牛市已经开始了。但是在港股和美股都还在熊市二期时，A股可不可以进入到牛市一期呢？我很怀疑。可能A股这波反弹行情只是"走势陷阱"，因为它是在中国政府4万亿的政策刺激下出现的。我担心两件事：一是如果A股市场很强，那么可以拉起香港乃至美国市场；二是糟糕的香港和美国市场将A股市场的估值再拉下来。
A股是否会与港股、美股分道扬镳？现在看来，美国和香港经济短期内不可能回升，仅有中国内地经济回暖，也不可能支撑A股进入真正的牛市。最后的结果可能是，A股这个小牛很轻易地就被美股和港股杀掉了。如果我的推测正确的话，那么A股市场的走势不是V形而是W形，2008年四季度已经有了第一个底，我想另一个底就在今年秋天。
《红周刊》：如果是这样的话，投资者应该采取怎样的操作策略？
老曹："half-glass water"，现在A股投资者面对的就是半杯开水，情况好不到哪里也坏不到哪里。所以，最好的策略就是"buy after dip, sell after peak"(跌了就买，涨了就卖)。这仅是一个交易机会，要不停地买进来卖出去。你可用W形思路去操作股票，如果在去年四季度买入的话，你不妨在今年4-5月份卖出，到今年秋天可以再买进来。市场会提供一个很好的投资机会，因为中国经济在全世界是好的，我相信今年秋天的第二个底部不会低于2008年11月。
《红周刊》：您在《论势》中说，2010年10月前中国将迎来下一个牛市，依据是什么？
老曹：美国牛市经历了百年繁荣后盛极而衰，而中国刚好相反，还是一个小BB，有钱的人刚刚跑步进入股市，把市场PE推高到了70多倍，这种疯狂的大牛市是任何股市走向成熟的必经过程，就像人年轻的时候，很乱很天真很疯狂。A股刚刚经历了一个少年张狂的时期，这个时期的指数图形类似于1973年的港股，1929年的美股，我一点都不陌生。不过经过这次疯狂后，从今年开始A股将成为一个更加成熟的市场。
判断熊市在明年10月前结束，是因为据我的经验，每个市场熊市一般不超过3年，香港在1974年时大约经历了12个月的熊市，美国1929年股灾时经历了28个月熊市。如果按这样算的话，A股熊市则很有可能在2010年上半年前结束。
太阳升起在中国
《红周刊》："有智慧不如趁势"浓缩了您40年的投资智慧，我们应该如何理解"势"？
老曹："势"是大气候，它不以人的主观愿望而改变。如果大气候向淡的话，不论你多么努力都难以改变命运，但是当大气候向好的时候，你就是不努力都可以赚钱。有人对我说曹先生，你很发达是因为你很聪明，错了！1967年我刚出来工作，香港经济形势很差，但是我赶上了之后30年的繁荣期，你就是瞎子也都可以赚到钱（老曹微闭双眼笑着说）。但是如果你1997年后工作，刚好赶上金融危机再怎么努力都是负资产，当你刚摆脱负资产时，雷曼兄弟又来了！大趋势对香港人都是不利的。
而从1978到2007年，中国经济"砰"的爆炸了！大陆不管炒股还是做生意只要奋斗都能赚钱。即使2008年股市大跌，放在长远的时间背景来看中国经济还是非常好的，A股也将进入一个稳定的市场，不会再跌的吓死人了。所以我要向全世界通告：if you want to make money ,please come to china, go east ！
太阳已经在东方升起来了！所有投资中国的人可能眼前吃亏，因为A股目前还看不到底部，但是从20~25年来看，当下投资的每一块钱在未来都会double，我有钱，我会投在你身上，因为你（记者）年轻，未来赚的钱一定比现在多，但是就不要投资在我身上，我今年60岁了，30年后我90岁了，投资在我身上钱可能会输光。
《红周刊》：但是就现在经济情况看，大家觉得日子很难捱。
老曹：中国经济正在痛苦转型。工业追逐的是"三低一高"，即土地成本低、工资低、税收低，流动人口高，30年后，这些因素慢慢地都消失了，你还想要点儿优惠？政府会说，先搞环保再说!工业生存的整个环境都改变了，很多企业都跑到印度等更有优势的国家，就像1980年时香港工业向珠三角转移那样。
但是赚了30年的钱后，内地的港口、金融、物流等服务业慢慢开启了，上海、深圳的港口收费比香港便宜，抢走了香港、台湾、韩国的生意。不过服务业的发展速度还是不能弥补工业快速下跌带来的负面影响，而工业对GDP的贡献约在4成，这将很难保证GDP保持从前的高速，今年一季度GDP同比增6.1%，我认为里面还是有水分的，可能里面有2~3个百分点是政府投资拉动的，GDP由高变低的过程很痛苦，这几年中国正是青黄不接的时候，但是将来是好的，关键是能不能捱过去。
避开命苦行业股票
《红周刊》：以上您都是说大气候，你也曾经对行业有过分析，看淡农业、零售类股票，还一再提醒投资者不要沾手金融股，原因是？
老曹：有些行业注定命苦，有"明星相"的农业企业少得很，我看不到有一个农夫发家致富的。我妈妈家是大地主，但是从5岁开始到20岁嫁到我家，衣服从来都有补丁的，不看好零售股因为门槛太低了，竞争得很厉害，无法长期保持高边际利润。只有你的零售店开得好，通过购并将竞争对手统统吃掉，才能做成美国的沃尔玛。但是今天呢？中国零售业还是群雄割据，还看不出谁最后会胜出。
不让沾手金融股是就中短线来说的，过去一年来不少国际银行变成了"僵尸银行"，政府敲打一下，才跳一跳，使得全球银行业前景看跌。过去汇丰银行多好啊，工商银行算老几？金融危机后不同了，汇丰投资美国亏损了，内地银行上去了！并且今天再买汇丰也失去了前30年那样的高成长了，而"六行三保"建设银行、招商银行、工商银行、中国银行、交通银行、中信银行、中国人寿、中国平安、中国财险却提供了同样的机会，银行股长线看好，但是短线会很辛苦。
《红周刊》：对"3W"（Where、When、What），您已经回答了前两个W，那么投资者交易哪只股票呢？再推荐一次吧？
老曹：我对A股不熟悉很难答复你，即使是对港股我熟悉的股票也不过50多家。在了解行业盛衰周期后，必须学习阅读上市公司年报，从一个小股东的角度去了解上市公司的情况，甚至把自己当成该公司的老板，去决定到底是该买还是该卖？
投资战，求之于势
《红周刊》：那谈谈大类资产配置吧，报道说您每月都会买一枚金币以备不虞。
老曹：我买金币是上世纪80年代的事情，已经全部获利回吐了。我现在不看好黄金，支撑金价的因素有：一是High-inflation（高通胀），二是Emergency Currency（金融危机时发行的支付手段）。这两样东西未来很难再发生了：美国的高通胀在上世纪70-80年代结束了，香港也在90年代结束了，而中国通胀2007年结束了。婴儿潮带来的消费繁荣过去了，美国人不消费了，而中国人想消费但是没有钱，所以很难再出现一个极高的通胀率了。
《红周刊》：上世纪70年代您投资房地产赚了大钱，现在您怎么看这个行业？
老曹：如果没有高通胀推动，美国房地产增长率为2.5%，你对这个数字满意的话，就可以买楼或者房地产股做只乌龟，因为这类资产很安全，而且一有风吹草动马上可以缩头。如果你中意做乌龟的话，OK，you may do it ,but stupid ！（你可以做，但是很笨）内地房地产还独有城市化这个推动力，所以相对外围来说，房地产或许还会慢慢上去。
《红周刊》：您也用了很多技术指标，最常用的是哪些？
老曹：我用的最多的技术指标是MACD、RSI、VIX，这些指标告诉我，投资大众什么时候疯狂什么时候害怕。250天移动均线决定了大趋势，也很重要。这些指标对整个大趋势的影响不大，假设你用这些指标分析走熊的日本股市还会犯大错。
《红周刊》：您也看基本面分析，两者怎么结合起来看？
老曹：技术分析和基本面分析就像李小龙把咏春拳和西洋拳合用，如果没有基本面分析去配合，你打出来拳很好看，但只是花拳绣腿，因为你身体差嘛！如果我身体好，打出来的拳又好，打你一拳你都要倒三天。很多中小投资者只看技术指标买卖股票往往失败，因为他们从来都不明白大趋势，也不了解买的股票是干什么的。这类投资者只能算作玩家，在股市里玩，是要输钱的。
后记：采访结束后，老曹再三提醒记者要执行止损，他1974年在恒指暴跌73%后入场抄底"和记"，亏了80%，只想跳海。后来他总结出"止损不止赚，加涨不加跌"，严格按照15%止损，一直活到了今天，且近40年财富增长了4万倍。老曹说，"巴菲特搭乘了美国1982年最后一班繁荣号顺风车，而现在'雪人'正在融化，他的长期持有策略不适合所有市场，任何时候投资者都应用止损保护自己的利益。"
是谁妨碍了你的投资致富？
股票投资致富其实道理非常简单，那就是用4毛钱的价格买到1元钱的好企业。由于买入的是那些价格很便宜、有竞争力和良好经济前景的优秀企业，所以发生投资亏损的可能性几乎为零。其实，这样的好企业就在你的身后，它们是那些在人们日常工作生活中能够接触到的企业。那么，这么简单的价值投资法为什么大部分的投资者都避而远之呢？
“股神”巴菲特50多年的投资成功已经证明了价值投资方法的有效性，中国内地的价值投资实践者们经过10多年的财富积累，身家过亿的也不在少数。但是另一个滑稽的现状是，至今鲜有成功案例的技术分析、趋势投资反而一直占据着证券投资的主体，那是因为投资者受到了很多误导而选择了错误的投资方法，下面就让我们看看究竟是谁在妨碍投资者选择正确的投资之路。
首先是证券公司。证券公司永远要高薪雇用大批证券分析师、研究员、经纪人，不厌其烦地点评股票，日复一日地重复着买入卖出建议，希望你的交易越频繁越好。他们不停地 “ 克隆 ” 着公司研究、评级报告，有时对于同一公司股票价格在10元时评级是买入，而跌倒5元时却是卖出，无论推荐正确与否，这都不影响他们永远辛勤、卖力地工作。也许在这背后有一个声音是永恒的：交易吧，我的朋友，你是我们的衣食父母！所以站在证券公司的立场上，他们当然最不欢迎也不能接受价值投资法，当然不希望每个投资人都信奉巴菲特式的价值投资，因为价值投资法的换手率通常是非常低的，而且可能持有股票长达多年。所以如果市场上都是价值投资者，恐怕很多券商都会亏损甚至倒闭。
其次是那些技术分析派在不断地侵吞你的财富。很多人只要提到股票就会想到盯盘和看K线图，如果不去做这些似乎根本就不是作股票投资。是他们让刚入市的新手错误地认为只要掌握了技术分析技巧，就可以很轻松地抓到涨停板。因为一个无可争议的事实是无论大盘涨与跌，每天几乎都有股票涨停。所以在这种看似“无懈可击”的事实面前，几乎很少有人不向技术分析派“屈服”。所以，很多技术派便以短线稳定获利为诱饵，让很多投资人相信短线是可以持续赚钱的。靠技术分析来赚钱，我只能说一定非常具有偶然性，绝对没有必然性和确定性，因为技术分析的数据只能代表过去的交易行为和历史，不能代表未来，因而你不可能每次都赢。而且，很明显的历史证据是没有一个技术分析派能够在证券市场上长期存活下来。
“随大流”思想成为投资股票的严重心理束缚。在商业领域，如果要想赚大钱，那么一定要做别人没做过的事情。如果别人做什么你也去做，那么表面上看似乎你的风险很低，但实际上你只能是一个跟随者，跟随的结果只能“喝汤”，甚至会“饿死”。这种规律在投资领域一样有效，这就是我们常说的“羊群效应”。投资者只有确确实实地看到股市已经具备了上涨的大趋势，或者在股市赚钱的神话不断上演的时候，他才开始买股票，而且自己还觉得这样风险会低一些，而最终结果是买入价格恰好是在高估区域，花费5元钱买到了只值1元钱的东西，怎么可能不亏损呢？具备这种投资思路和做事习惯的人，基本上不可能靠投资股票致富的。著名哲学导师卡耐基曾说：要想改变你的行为首先从思想开始。
金融衍生产品实际上为你提供的不是致富机会而是陷阱。虽然中国股市除了权证之外目前还没有推出那些眼花缭乱、富有魅力的交易品种（如股指期货），但是这只是时间早晚的问题。这些交易品种不具备 “ 创造价值 ” 的特点，完全是一个博弈的市场，即零和游戏。个人投资者在这场高风险的 “ 赌博游戏 ” 中面对强大的竞争对手（业内专业人士）很少会有赢家。
总而言之，世界上唯有价值投资法可以为投资人持续创造财富，而且它是我们最容易理解和掌握的方法。价值投资法是唯一能够投资成功的方法。投资人在通向正确的致富道路上，面对如此多的障碍和陷阱，只有做到保持理性和独立思考，真正的理解股票投资的本质才可能找到属于自己的致富之路！
“股神”巴菲特50多年的投资成功已经证明了价值投资方法的有效性，中国内地的价值投资实践者们经过10多年的财富积累，身家过亿的也不在少数。但是另一个滑稽的现状是，至今鲜有成功案例的技术分析、趋势投资反而一直占据着证券投资的主体，那是因为投资者受到了很多误导而选择了错误的投资方法，下面就让我们看看究竟是谁在妨碍投资者选择正确的投资之路。
首先是证券公司。证券公司永远要高薪雇用大批证券分析师、研究员、经纪人，不厌其烦地点评股票，日复一日地重复着买入卖出建议，希望你的交易越频繁越好。他们不停地 “ 克隆 ” 着公司研究、评级报告，有时对于同一公司股票价格在10元时评级是买入，而跌倒5元时却是卖出，无论推荐正确与否，这都不影响他们永远辛勤、卖力地工作。也许在这背后有一个声音是永恒的：交易吧，我的朋友，你是我们的衣食父母！所以站在证券公司的立场上，他们当然最不欢迎也不能接受价值投资法，当然不希望每个投资人都信奉巴菲特式的价值投资，因为价值投资法的换手率通常是非常低的，而且可能持有股票长达多年。所以如果市场上都是价值投资者，恐怕很多券商都会亏损甚至倒闭。
其次是那些技术分析派在不断地侵吞你的财富。很多人只要提到股票就会想到盯盘和看K线图，如果不去做这些似乎根本就不是作股票投资。是他们让刚入市的新手错误地认为只要掌握了技术分析技巧，就可以很轻松地抓到涨停板。因为一个无可争议的事实是无论大盘涨与跌，每天几乎都有股票涨停。所以在这种看似“无懈可击”的事实面前，几乎很少有人不向技术分析派“屈服”。所以，很多技术派便以短线稳定获利为诱饵，让很多投资人相信短线是可以持续赚钱的。靠技术分析来赚钱，我只能说一定非常具有偶然性，绝对没有必然性和确定性，因为技术分析的数据只能代表过去的交易行为和历史，不能代表未来，因而你不可能每次都赢。而且，很明显的历史证据是没有一个技术分析派能够在证券市场上长期存活下来。
“随大流”思想成为投资股票的严重心理束缚。在商业领域，如果要想赚大钱，那么一定要做别人没做过的事情。如果别人做什么你也去做，那么表面上看似乎你的风险很低，但实际上你只能是一个跟随者，跟随的结果只能“喝汤”，甚至会“饿死”。这种规律在投资领域一样有效，这就是我们常说的“羊群效应”。投资者只有确确实实地看到股市已经具备了上涨的大趋势，或者在股市赚钱的神话不断上演的时候，他才开始买股票，而且自己还觉得这样风险会低一些，而最终结果是买入价格恰好是在高估区域，花费5元钱买到了只值1元钱的东西，怎么可能不亏损呢？具备这种投资思路和做事习惯的人，基本上不可能靠投资股票致富的。著名哲学导师卡耐基曾说：要想改变你的行为首先从思想开始。
金融衍生产品实际上为你提供的不是致富机会而是陷阱。虽然中国股市除了权证之外目前还没有推出那些眼花缭乱、富有魅力的交易品种（如股指期货），但是这只是时间早晚的问题。这些交易品种不具备 “ 创造价值 ” 的特点，完全是一个博弈的市场，即零和游戏。个人投资者在这场高风险的 “ 赌博游戏 ” 中面对强大的竞争对手（业内专业人士）很少会有赢家。
总而言之，世界上唯有价值投资法可以为投资人持续创造财富，而且它是我们最容易理解和掌握的方法。价值投资法是唯一能够投资成功的方法。投资人在通向正确的致富道路上，面对如此多的障碍和陷阱，只有做到保持理性和独立思考，真正的理解股票投资的本质才可能找到属于自己的致富之路！
Saturday, April 25, 2009
价值投资者的思路3：短、长期的矛盾是获利的关键
前面我们已经说了，价值投资就是捡便宜。怎么捡呢？天下没有免费的午餐，我们不可能在大街上捡到钱，我们也不可能随随便便就在股市上捡到钱。
我们捡便宜的理论基础是：市场的注意力经常集中在短期，按短期的收益给公司定价，但公司价值大部分是未来长期现金流决定的。这两者的性质非常不同，经常没有什么联系，且往往有一个很大的差距，当差距足够大时，价值投资者的获利空间就来了。
捡便宜和长期是价值投资者的2个核心词汇。
我们来看一个例子。
沃尔玛1970年上市到现在，股价涨了3000倍！我认为沃尔玛是比巴菲特还伟大的公司（暂且按下不表）。显然，市场是按短期收益给沃尔玛定价的，因为如果市场在1970，1980，1990，2000年就预计到了沃尔玛今天的庞大规模，那么在1970，1980，1990，2000年，沃尔玛的股价就不会这么低了。沃尔玛的股价就不可能涨这么多了。在这里，关键是要认识到沃尔玛的强大扩张能力，也就是沃尔玛未来产生庞大现金流的能力,远远超出短期收益的能力。
我们再看一个相反的例子，招商地产，在2007年11月1日达到最高峰102块，08年7月30日的收盘价是16.5，复权价是24.75元。一年不到，股价下跌了75％。解释就是在去年房地产的狂热时期，市场认为房地产会一直热下去，未来的现金流也会象07年一样高，而造成股价的高估。08年房地产降温，市场终于清醒了，又开始用08年的现金流来代替未来的现金流了。
当我们考虑成长股的估值时，沃尔玛和招商地产是很好的例子。
先在这里总结一下价值投资者的行为模式。当然对价值投资已有很多的阐述，再总结是试图把事情说得更清楚，有了以上讨论的基础，希望能做到。
价值投资者关注基本面 —— 为了捡便宜，当然需要搞清楚东西值多少钱，基本面分析是根本。
价值投资者追求安全边际 —— 同上，捡便宜是价值投资者的中心任务，为的是主动。
价值投资者往往是长期投资者 —— 公司短、长期的估值矛盾是获利的来源，所以价值投资者要长期等待市场认识到公司的真正价值。但如果市场迅速认识到，价值投资者也是短期投资者。
价值投资者不害怕股价下跌 —— 如果花40块买了值80块的东西，现在掉到30块，那就等嘛，不急。
价值投资者对宏观经济不敏感 —— 公司的价值来源于长期，短期的经济形势影响不大。
价值投资者强调能力范围－－搞清公司的长期收益不容易，所以只能集中力量在少部分自己把握大的公司。
价值投资者逆风飞行 —— 在大家都恐惧时，公司的长期价值并不受影响，大把便宜货，买入。
我们捡便宜的理论基础是：市场的注意力经常集中在短期，按短期的收益给公司定价，但公司价值大部分是未来长期现金流决定的。这两者的性质非常不同，经常没有什么联系，且往往有一个很大的差距，当差距足够大时，价值投资者的获利空间就来了。
捡便宜和长期是价值投资者的2个核心词汇。
我们来看一个例子。
沃尔玛1970年上市到现在，股价涨了3000倍！我认为沃尔玛是比巴菲特还伟大的公司（暂且按下不表）。显然，市场是按短期收益给沃尔玛定价的，因为如果市场在1970，1980，1990，2000年就预计到了沃尔玛今天的庞大规模，那么在1970，1980，1990，2000年，沃尔玛的股价就不会这么低了。沃尔玛的股价就不可能涨这么多了。在这里，关键是要认识到沃尔玛的强大扩张能力，也就是沃尔玛未来产生庞大现金流的能力,远远超出短期收益的能力。
我们再看一个相反的例子，招商地产，在2007年11月1日达到最高峰102块，08年7月30日的收盘价是16.5，复权价是24.75元。一年不到，股价下跌了75％。解释就是在去年房地产的狂热时期，市场认为房地产会一直热下去，未来的现金流也会象07年一样高，而造成股价的高估。08年房地产降温，市场终于清醒了，又开始用08年的现金流来代替未来的现金流了。
当我们考虑成长股的估值时，沃尔玛和招商地产是很好的例子。
先在这里总结一下价值投资者的行为模式。当然对价值投资已有很多的阐述，再总结是试图把事情说得更清楚，有了以上讨论的基础，希望能做到。
价值投资者关注基本面 —— 为了捡便宜，当然需要搞清楚东西值多少钱，基本面分析是根本。
价值投资者追求安全边际 —— 同上，捡便宜是价值投资者的中心任务，为的是主动。
价值投资者往往是长期投资者 —— 公司短、长期的估值矛盾是获利的来源，所以价值投资者要长期等待市场认识到公司的真正价值。但如果市场迅速认识到，价值投资者也是短期投资者。
价值投资者不害怕股价下跌 —— 如果花40块买了值80块的东西，现在掉到30块，那就等嘛，不急。
价值投资者对宏观经济不敏感 —— 公司的价值来源于长期，短期的经济形势影响不大。
价值投资者强调能力范围－－搞清公司的长期收益不容易，所以只能集中力量在少部分自己把握大的公司。
价值投资者逆风飞行 —— 在大家都恐惧时，公司的长期价值并不受影响，大把便宜货，买入。
中级调整或已开始
本周大盘整体呈现冲高回落，先扬后抑之势。周一大盘在做多热点共同烘托下，拉出中阳。周二受美股大跌影响，大盘低开，但多头仍顽强地将抵住作空盘的抛压，收出低开阳线。但周三，在指标突然整体拉升下，大盘创出新高后，抛盘开始逐步加大。随后振荡下行，午市后，跌势加剧，于此同时，市场抛压骤然放大，汹涌的抛盘使得股指当日拉出近一个月以来最大的放量阴线。周四，周五小幅反弹。纵观全周，多空转换十分明显，多头力量随着股指的逐步走高，天平又过去多方占优逐步向空方倾斜。盘中虽然不时有个股表现，但多数是补涨类品种，脉冲式的突然启动，持续性又不佳以及前期多数强势热点开始大幅走低使得本周操作难度加大。券商、地产、有色等板块表现疲弱，银行板块多数蛰伏不动。而通信电子、水泥建材以及汽车板块。农业板块，家电表现相对较强。同时一些题材股，如核电中的部分品种也有表现。总体观察，本周多空分歧十分明显，股指振荡加剧，最终，空方取胜，大盘收阴。
仅仅从大盘走势来看，一根大阴后缀两个小阳小阴，属于下跌抵抗型，还是属于止跌型，有待下周一确认。一般来说，若下周一多方仍无力拉起大盘，则要警觉大盘出现进一步下行,若出现再度回升，也并不意味着警报解除，毕竟再上的空间实在不大。即使后面再创新高，也难以成为市场再起一轮行情的信号。
笔者倾向于目前属于下跌抵抗，这样，问题的关键不是跌不跌，而是跌多少的问题,抑或形成中级调整。如果仅仅是一次技术性调整，则理论上大盘跌幅不应该超过10％，（昨日和今日合计调整幅度最大已经达到6％。）从沪市点位来说也就是2310点附近。但如果大盘跌幅超过10％，即跌破2310点，则后市调整性质就不是简单的技术性调整。而应该归为中级调整。
目前有没有中级调整的理由呢？因为此次大盘强力反弹，属于依托国家经济刺激政策，利用信贷大投放的资金流通性宽裕而出现的“资金推动型”行情。这种行情的特点就是不管三七二十一，只要是个“票”，就被大炒，讲故事的多于讲业绩的。谈预期的大于谈实际的。但任何故事都有讲完的时候，如果故事后面并没有实际业绩支撑，留下的必定是一片残垣断壁。这是其一。
其二是估值压力和安全边际问题。整体估值压力两市按照静态市盈率如果剔除银行板块的话，已经30倍，动态市盈率既是将银行板块加上也超过30倍。安全边际几乎已经丧失。
第三，宏观经济数据虽然好于预期，但微观企业步履艰难的状况仍未改观。.虽然国家推出了出了4万亿刺激经济计划，但结构性问题不仅没有及时改善，却出现反向迹象，消费抑制越来越明显，内需拉动并不是有效的。出口的下降需要全球经济好转，但存在的一个问题是美国人开始转变过去那种“寅吃卯粮”的生活方式，那么我国外贸既是出口回升也难以达到过往几年的水平。外贸回升艰难，内需启而不动，整个中下游企业（不仅包括出口企业），都面临着产能过剩和利润下降，持续时间远远不是一年就能解决问题的。
第四 ，持续增加的M2到M1。由于市场总市值的变化，增量货币带来的边际效应越来越低。而且可以预期的是随后信贷资金不可能保持一季度那种“狂放”状况，逐步减低将成为事实。也许4，5月信贷仍可以保证，但是再往后呢？退一步将，既是信贷有保障，但信贷只能维持企业现金流，不能保证企业利润，无法消灭过剩产能。
第五，虽然市场试图将昨日下跌归为所谓的“IPO”重启以及信贷资金的收缩。但笔者并不认同此类说法，昨日市况是下跌后，人们开始找利空。找到诸如信贷收缩，重启IPO等，但实际上是下跌先，“利空”后，所以，属于市场自身需要调整。而这种调整往往具有持续性。
第六，从技术角度来看，大盘日线运行轨迹，从3月3日开始构建了一个较为陡峭的上升楔形，其三段结构十分清晰。按照楔形特点“从那来到那去”（3月3日起步位置在2037点。），谨慎一点不为过。同时从分时大盘形态来看（30分钟，60分钟），构筑的“喇叭形态”，其杀伤力也不能小觑。
总之，虽然我们还不能完全断定，此次大盘调整属于中级别调整，毕竟目前政策还在支撑市场，资金的流动性依然宽裕。但我们可以循着市场的运行轨迹，动态把握。一般来说，此次急速下跌后，如果是技术性的，则经过反弹后再跌，就不能再创第一次下跌低点。框定下限位置不能低于2310点。反之，将形成A－B－C三段结构型调整。目标将直指2050点。
总之,从估值压力和动力系统指标的表现看，下周大盘继续调整的概率偏大。
仅仅从大盘走势来看，一根大阴后缀两个小阳小阴，属于下跌抵抗型，还是属于止跌型，有待下周一确认。一般来说，若下周一多方仍无力拉起大盘，则要警觉大盘出现进一步下行,若出现再度回升，也并不意味着警报解除，毕竟再上的空间实在不大。即使后面再创新高，也难以成为市场再起一轮行情的信号。
笔者倾向于目前属于下跌抵抗，这样，问题的关键不是跌不跌，而是跌多少的问题,抑或形成中级调整。如果仅仅是一次技术性调整，则理论上大盘跌幅不应该超过10％，（昨日和今日合计调整幅度最大已经达到6％。）从沪市点位来说也就是2310点附近。但如果大盘跌幅超过10％，即跌破2310点，则后市调整性质就不是简单的技术性调整。而应该归为中级调整。
目前有没有中级调整的理由呢？因为此次大盘强力反弹，属于依托国家经济刺激政策，利用信贷大投放的资金流通性宽裕而出现的“资金推动型”行情。这种行情的特点就是不管三七二十一，只要是个“票”，就被大炒，讲故事的多于讲业绩的。谈预期的大于谈实际的。但任何故事都有讲完的时候，如果故事后面并没有实际业绩支撑，留下的必定是一片残垣断壁。这是其一。
其二是估值压力和安全边际问题。整体估值压力两市按照静态市盈率如果剔除银行板块的话，已经30倍，动态市盈率既是将银行板块加上也超过30倍。安全边际几乎已经丧失。
第三，宏观经济数据虽然好于预期，但微观企业步履艰难的状况仍未改观。.虽然国家推出了出了4万亿刺激经济计划，但结构性问题不仅没有及时改善，却出现反向迹象，消费抑制越来越明显，内需拉动并不是有效的。出口的下降需要全球经济好转，但存在的一个问题是美国人开始转变过去那种“寅吃卯粮”的生活方式，那么我国外贸既是出口回升也难以达到过往几年的水平。外贸回升艰难，内需启而不动，整个中下游企业（不仅包括出口企业），都面临着产能过剩和利润下降，持续时间远远不是一年就能解决问题的。
第四 ，持续增加的M2到M1。由于市场总市值的变化，增量货币带来的边际效应越来越低。而且可以预期的是随后信贷资金不可能保持一季度那种“狂放”状况，逐步减低将成为事实。也许4，5月信贷仍可以保证，但是再往后呢？退一步将，既是信贷有保障，但信贷只能维持企业现金流，不能保证企业利润，无法消灭过剩产能。
第五，虽然市场试图将昨日下跌归为所谓的“IPO”重启以及信贷资金的收缩。但笔者并不认同此类说法，昨日市况是下跌后，人们开始找利空。找到诸如信贷收缩，重启IPO等，但实际上是下跌先，“利空”后，所以，属于市场自身需要调整。而这种调整往往具有持续性。
第六，从技术角度来看，大盘日线运行轨迹，从3月3日开始构建了一个较为陡峭的上升楔形，其三段结构十分清晰。按照楔形特点“从那来到那去”（3月3日起步位置在2037点。），谨慎一点不为过。同时从分时大盘形态来看（30分钟，60分钟），构筑的“喇叭形态”，其杀伤力也不能小觑。
总之，虽然我们还不能完全断定，此次大盘调整属于中级别调整，毕竟目前政策还在支撑市场，资金的流动性依然宽裕。但我们可以循着市场的运行轨迹，动态把握。一般来说，此次急速下跌后，如果是技术性的，则经过反弹后再跌，就不能再创第一次下跌低点。框定下限位置不能低于2310点。反之，将形成A－B－C三段结构型调整。目标将直指2050点。
总之,从估值压力和动力系统指标的表现看，下周大盘继续调整的概率偏大。
现金仍然为王
全球股市在过去的几个月里出现了剧烈反弹—平均上涨了20%到30%。那些此前利润直线下滑的公司们，如今开始向外界传达对于未来的信心—当然，也就意味着投资者应该给他们更多的资金支持。不过我的建议是，暂时还是握紧你的现金，因为这只是一场回光返照。全球市场正在经历一轮绵延的熊市，这种形势将至少持续到2010年。如果政策制定者们将自己的注意力集中在几种刺激手段而不是改革重组上，萧条可能还会持续更长时间。
现金仍然为王。也许将来有一天，现金会由于央行们疯狂开动印钞机而变得不安全，那时候你会愿意将现金换成石油、黄金等资产。但在这样恶性通胀的情况发生之前，现金仍是安全的。
下挫的股市、房地产市场和大宗商品市场已经将很多人踢出了富豪俱乐部，但聪明的投资者在更早的时候就抽身而出，现在握有充裕的现金。在蛰伏数月之后，这些人渴望采取些行动。不过，那些难以按捺投资冲动的人们很可能在市场的反复中遭到损失。这种熊市中的反弹在接下来两年中还会出现很多次，而这会伤及那些此前躲过下跌行情的投资者。现在的股票市场已经变成现金碎纸机。
绝大部分天真的投资者仍然将股市看作财富的源泉，认为大跌之后总是伴随着买入的机会。但实际上，这样的美妙回忆恰恰成为引诱不谨慎的投资者重新入市的鸦片。过去三十年的股票市场发展，只能当作一种例外情况来考虑，而并不是常态。即使是巴菲特，也只不过是幸运地赶上了这个好时候。美国的上一次熊市持续了整整十年；日本股市如今的表现比25年前还要糟糕；韩国的股市也低于20年前。如果你相信长期而言股票市场为你创造财富，你得首先确保自己能活足够长的时间。
美国和欧洲已经陷入20年前在日本和韩国发生过的结构性熊市之中，原因有二：第一，对于之前过度消费型经济的纠偏将使经济增长持续低迷，因此可以预期经济总量在未来不会迅速变大；第二，还有诸如老龄化社会等更加紧迫的问题需要处理。
美国的银行业救助计划是本轮反弹的催化剂，而与前任财长鲍尔森相较，现在的政策并没有任何值得注意的不同之处。市场之所以出现了不同的反应，是因为此前的恐慌情绪已经持续了太长时间，市场心态已经调整到可以将这种计划向积极方面解读了。
美联储将斥资1.15万亿美元购买由政府担保的债券这一决定成为导致市场乐观主义的另一原因。它们的主要目的是保持抵押贷款的低利率，以稳定美国住房市场。但是，增发货币来保持利率低位只能在很短的时间内奏效，而最终则会导致美元崩溃。
本质上，美国正在依靠财政泡沫来保证经济的活力。正如IT、住房和抵押债券市场曾经发生过的事情一样，美元的泡沫也终将破灭。我认为美国资产的价格将随着财政泡沫的破灭而最终落入谷底，或许是在2010年。
过去二十年的市场经验告诉投资者，应该趁市场看起来将要触底的时候买入，因为此时通常伴随着一个V字反转的行情。但是如果你认为现在也会如此，那就犯了一个大错：此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。而下次牛市的唯一希望，可能是中国拾起美国丢失的地位。中国有着将可以领导全球的经济规模和发展速度。但中国也必须改变其以出口和投资为导向的经济模式，并采取三项改革措施：
1.放开人民币汇率控制，开放资本账户并将所得税降至目前的25%的水平。这些措施将吸引全球的富豪和天才们来到中国，上海将成为超过伦敦和纽约的全球金融中心。
2.将政府所持有的国有股票还富于民。这一措施的首要影响是能够创造5000亿人民币的居民消费，并进一步促进经济的良性运行。
3.设计25座超大城市，每个能容纳3000万人口。这些城市将被允许自行发债以支持其发展，这样，这些城市就能将住房价格维持在低位，并借此吸引购买者。同时，政府应该设立相应的抵押贷款方案让城市的建造者—农民工能够买得起自己建造的住宅。
中国拥有在20年之内变成一个发达国家的巨大潜力。下一个牛市也将来临，但催化剂不是华盛顿正在采取的那些措施，而是中国。
现金仍然为王。也许将来有一天，现金会由于央行们疯狂开动印钞机而变得不安全，那时候你会愿意将现金换成石油、黄金等资产。但在这样恶性通胀的情况发生之前，现金仍是安全的。
下挫的股市、房地产市场和大宗商品市场已经将很多人踢出了富豪俱乐部，但聪明的投资者在更早的时候就抽身而出，现在握有充裕的现金。在蛰伏数月之后，这些人渴望采取些行动。不过，那些难以按捺投资冲动的人们很可能在市场的反复中遭到损失。这种熊市中的反弹在接下来两年中还会出现很多次，而这会伤及那些此前躲过下跌行情的投资者。现在的股票市场已经变成现金碎纸机。
绝大部分天真的投资者仍然将股市看作财富的源泉，认为大跌之后总是伴随着买入的机会。但实际上，这样的美妙回忆恰恰成为引诱不谨慎的投资者重新入市的鸦片。过去三十年的股票市场发展，只能当作一种例外情况来考虑，而并不是常态。即使是巴菲特，也只不过是幸运地赶上了这个好时候。美国的上一次熊市持续了整整十年；日本股市如今的表现比25年前还要糟糕；韩国的股市也低于20年前。如果你相信长期而言股票市场为你创造财富，你得首先确保自己能活足够长的时间。
美国和欧洲已经陷入20年前在日本和韩国发生过的结构性熊市之中，原因有二：第一，对于之前过度消费型经济的纠偏将使经济增长持续低迷，因此可以预期经济总量在未来不会迅速变大；第二，还有诸如老龄化社会等更加紧迫的问题需要处理。
美国的银行业救助计划是本轮反弹的催化剂，而与前任财长鲍尔森相较，现在的政策并没有任何值得注意的不同之处。市场之所以出现了不同的反应，是因为此前的恐慌情绪已经持续了太长时间，市场心态已经调整到可以将这种计划向积极方面解读了。
美联储将斥资1.15万亿美元购买由政府担保的债券这一决定成为导致市场乐观主义的另一原因。它们的主要目的是保持抵押贷款的低利率，以稳定美国住房市场。但是，增发货币来保持利率低位只能在很短的时间内奏效，而最终则会导致美元崩溃。
本质上，美国正在依靠财政泡沫来保证经济的活力。正如IT、住房和抵押债券市场曾经发生过的事情一样，美元的泡沫也终将破灭。我认为美国资产的价格将随着财政泡沫的破灭而最终落入谷底，或许是在2010年。
过去二十年的市场经验告诉投资者，应该趁市场看起来将要触底的时候买入，因为此时通常伴随着一个V字反转的行情。但是如果你认为现在也会如此，那就犯了一个大错：此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。而下次牛市的唯一希望，可能是中国拾起美国丢失的地位。中国有着将可以领导全球的经济规模和发展速度。但中国也必须改变其以出口和投资为导向的经济模式，并采取三项改革措施：
1.放开人民币汇率控制，开放资本账户并将所得税降至目前的25%的水平。这些措施将吸引全球的富豪和天才们来到中国，上海将成为超过伦敦和纽约的全球金融中心。
2.将政府所持有的国有股票还富于民。这一措施的首要影响是能够创造5000亿人民币的居民消费，并进一步促进经济的良性运行。
3.设计25座超大城市，每个能容纳3000万人口。这些城市将被允许自行发债以支持其发展，这样，这些城市就能将住房价格维持在低位，并借此吸引购买者。同时，政府应该设立相应的抵押贷款方案让城市的建造者—农民工能够买得起自己建造的住宅。
中国拥有在20年之内变成一个发达国家的巨大潜力。下一个牛市也将来临，但催化剂不是华盛顿正在采取的那些措施，而是中国。
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Forget About Inflation... It's Deflation You Should Worry About
A consensus has formed that the government's massive money printing and debt-powered spending binge will soon destroy the destroy the dollar, crippling the remaining savings of anyone dumb enough not to buy "real" assets--like gold.
John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks that's ridiculous. He's also author of the popular e-letter, "Thoughts from the Frontline."
The Fed is printing money, Mauldin says, but overall credit is being destroyed. The government is desperately trying to bring back inflation, so we can lessen the real burden of our huge debts, but this will take a year or two at best.
So in the meantime, Mauldin says, ignore the gold bugs. They've been wrong for 25 years and they'll keep on being wrong for the foreseeable future.
John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks that's ridiculous. He's also author of the popular e-letter, "Thoughts from the Frontline."
The Fed is printing money, Mauldin says, but overall credit is being destroyed. The government is desperately trying to bring back inflation, so we can lessen the real burden of our huge debts, but this will take a year or two at best.
So in the meantime, Mauldin says, ignore the gold bugs. They've been wrong for 25 years and they'll keep on being wrong for the foreseeable future.
Mauldin: Don't Trust the Rally, But Don't Short, Either
In the past few weeks, as stocks have charged almost 30 percent higher, a consensus has emerged that this is the start of a great new bull market.
Stocks always rally six months ahead of the economy, this chorus goes. Today's "green shoots" of good news will soon bloom into a full-blown economic recovery.
So buy now while you still can!
Or not.
Our guest John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks the "great new bull market" theory is. A bunch of baloney. We're not getting out of this mess so fast, he says. The idea that stocks always bottom six months before a recovery is a myth (he's right). And he'll believe it's a new bull market when he finally sees some progress on corporate earnings.
But won't that be too late to buy?
No, says Mauldin, also author of the popular e-letter, "Thoughts from the Frontline." The great bull markets last for decades, so you'll have plenty of time. Those who bought at "the bottom" in 1974 had to suffer through the rest of the 1970s. So stop sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for that perfect moment to buy and just remain cautious for a while.
And that's the key: Mauldin isn't comfortable shorting now, either. He says the environment is too unpredictable. We all must wait and see what "the new normal" turns out to be.
Stocks always rally six months ahead of the economy, this chorus goes. Today's "green shoots" of good news will soon bloom into a full-blown economic recovery.
So buy now while you still can!
Or not.
Our guest John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, thinks the "great new bull market" theory is. A bunch of baloney. We're not getting out of this mess so fast, he says. The idea that stocks always bottom six months before a recovery is a myth (he's right). And he'll believe it's a new bull market when he finally sees some progress on corporate earnings.
But won't that be too late to buy?
No, says Mauldin, also author of the popular e-letter, "Thoughts from the Frontline." The great bull markets last for decades, so you'll have plenty of time. Those who bought at "the bottom" in 1974 had to suffer through the rest of the 1970s. So stop sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for that perfect moment to buy and just remain cautious for a while.
And that's the key: Mauldin isn't comfortable shorting now, either. He says the environment is too unpredictable. We all must wait and see what "the new normal" turns out to be.
Monday, April 20, 2009
无为而治的罗杰斯
“无为而治”是中国道家创始人老子的核心思想，该观点告诫人们不要妄为，而要顺应客观形态，尊重自然规律。在两千多年后的今天，一位西方人在投资领域把无为思想发挥得淋漓尽致，他就是被誉为最富远见的国际投资家——吉姆·罗杰斯。
1968年，吉姆·罗杰斯怀揣600美元独闯华尔街；1970年，他与世界金融巨头索罗斯共同组建“量子基金" ，投资回报率一度高达4000%。1980年，37岁的罗杰斯出人意料地与索罗斯分道扬镳，坐拥1400万美元的他开始了全新的环球投资生涯，投资足迹遍布葡萄牙、奥地利、巴西、中国等十多个国家。人们一定以为这位大师具有非凡的投资觉悟，然而他却如此告诫投资者：“投资的法则之一是袖手旁观，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做，而我更愿意坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”
罗杰斯最值得炫耀的一笔投资应该是1982年买进西德股票，之后他既不要分析报告，也不看最新评论，甚至连成交价都置若罔闻，并说:“假如告诉我成交价，我只要看到股价上涨两倍或三倍，就可能想卖出股票。其实我想持有西德股票至少3年。”事实证明罗杰斯的大势判断是正确的，他在1985年与1986年初分批卖出西德股票，获利颇丰。
众所周知，投资基金追求的是长期收益，然而又有多少人能做到对基金净值短期波动的 “ 袖手旁观 ” 。面对市场的风起云涌，大多数投资者被裹挟其中，诚惶诚恐地追随着股市的浪潮，哪怕稍有风吹草动，便忙不迭地买入或者卖出。一些人自诩为“长期投资者”，一旦股市下挫(或者是稍稍上涨)他们马上就从“长期投资”变成了短期投资，在股市大跌时宁愿损失极大也会恐慌性全部抛出，或者偶尔能够得到一点点小利时也会迫不及待地将基金赎回。由于人性中固有的恐惧和贪婪，投资者总是抵挡不住波段操作和追涨杀跌的诱惑。
连股神巴菲特都赞叹道：“我不得不承认，罗杰斯对市场大趋势的把握无人能及。"虽然普通投资者难以判断大趋势和小波澜，不妨学学罗杰斯的无为而治，选择适合自己风险承受能力的基金投资组合，保持“得意淡然，失意泰然”的心态，不盲目追逐短期波动！
1968年，吉姆·罗杰斯怀揣600美元独闯华尔街；1970年，他与世界金融巨头索罗斯共同组建“量子基金" ，投资回报率一度高达4000%。1980年，37岁的罗杰斯出人意料地与索罗斯分道扬镳，坐拥1400万美元的他开始了全新的环球投资生涯，投资足迹遍布葡萄牙、奥地利、巴西、中国等十多个国家。人们一定以为这位大师具有非凡的投资觉悟，然而他却如此告诫投资者：“投资的法则之一是袖手旁观，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做，而我更愿意坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”
罗杰斯最值得炫耀的一笔投资应该是1982年买进西德股票，之后他既不要分析报告，也不看最新评论，甚至连成交价都置若罔闻，并说:“假如告诉我成交价，我只要看到股价上涨两倍或三倍，就可能想卖出股票。其实我想持有西德股票至少3年。”事实证明罗杰斯的大势判断是正确的，他在1985年与1986年初分批卖出西德股票，获利颇丰。
众所周知，投资基金追求的是长期收益，然而又有多少人能做到对基金净值短期波动的 “ 袖手旁观 ” 。面对市场的风起云涌，大多数投资者被裹挟其中，诚惶诚恐地追随着股市的浪潮，哪怕稍有风吹草动，便忙不迭地买入或者卖出。一些人自诩为“长期投资者”，一旦股市下挫(或者是稍稍上涨)他们马上就从“长期投资”变成了短期投资，在股市大跌时宁愿损失极大也会恐慌性全部抛出，或者偶尔能够得到一点点小利时也会迫不及待地将基金赎回。由于人性中固有的恐惧和贪婪，投资者总是抵挡不住波段操作和追涨杀跌的诱惑。
连股神巴菲特都赞叹道：“我不得不承认，罗杰斯对市场大趋势的把握无人能及。"虽然普通投资者难以判断大趋势和小波澜，不妨学学罗杰斯的无为而治，选择适合自己风险承受能力的基金投资组合，保持“得意淡然，失意泰然”的心态，不盲目追逐短期波动！
投资环境恶化导致股市回暖
透过我的极视官网搜集了很多网友的反馈，我讲的他们基本都听懂了，不过认为我说的都是宏观层面的东西，建议讲一些实际的，教他们应该具体怎么做，很多人也给我写信，当然基本上都是在股市被套牢的。我想说的是，我自己是金融博士、金融专家，但我的最高战略指导思想是绝对不碰金融资产，而且是越复杂的越不碰，越要签合同的越不碰，合同越厚的越不碰，只是在房地产与现金之间来回折腾，这就是我学了一辈子的结论。最近中国股市在大涨，很多人的心情很激动，就在想这是不是一个经济复苏的前兆。
股市回暖的实质意义
二月份中国股市最高涨到了2400多点，请股民注意为什么一二月份会上涨？带着这个疑问想一下2006年，你会发现股市的基本面是不变的。中国2006年开始的股市泡沫、楼市泡沫和通货膨胀，如果按照日本上世纪80、90年代的故事，我们肯定认为是流动性过剩，因为当时的日本银行降低利率水平、放松信贷规模，使得银行信贷大量的流通，造成流动性过剩。2006年学术界就发生一个争论，大部分经济学家说中国也是流动性过剩，当时我认为并不是简单的流动性过剩，而是由于企业所面临的投资营商环境开始恶化。政府的各项政策包括宏观调控像提高利率跟存款准备金率，进一步打击了我国企业的投资营商环境，因此大量的资金从制造业转到股市楼市造成泡沫现象。同样的问题到了2009年，投资环境在没有有效改善之外，加上国际金融海啸的冲击，使得企业所面临的环境更加恶劣。如果这个时候银行体系大量放松贷款，那企业能做什么？
以一月份为例，一月新增贷款1.62万亿元，名义上听起来是一个很好的数字，银行为了刺激经济，增加了1.62万亿元的信贷。1.62万亿当中有0.6万亿左右是企业的票据融资，剩下的1万亿大部分是基础建设，真正用于改善投资营商环境或者说真正用于民营企业或者讲的更具体一点用于中小企业的几乎是零，也就是说这么大的信贷规模推出来的结果一个是银行给地方政府从事基础建设，一个是银行给大型企业尤其是大型国企进行票据融资。而且票据融资的利息非常低，目前是1.5%。票据融资只能做短期周转之用，当成企业的流动资金，比如发薪水、购买原材料等。去年十二月，票据融资是5000亿，一月是6239多亿，那么当去年12月拿到了5000亿，今年一月又拿到6239亿的钱之后，由于企业面临着投资营商环境的恶化，他准备做什么，又能干什么？因为票据只能用在短期，所以不能炒楼，只能炒股。当时我在极视网回答网友问题的时候说一万多亿的资金部分会进入股市拉抬股价，而这也就是近期股市上涨的原因。
中国银监会在今年2月13号通知要查帐，股价立刻大跌，因为要赶快把钱套现放回银行。激增的流动性资金去向也引起了监管层的注意，但是和07年不一样，07年银监会调查违规资金入市的力度非常大，这一次银监会没有向各大银行严查是否有违规资金入市的情况，央行也只是提醒各大银行关注票据激增的现象，没有警告也没有查处，结果是雷声大雨点小，所以这一波的走势完全印证了我在2006年的观点。过去很多专家学者总认为中国的股市是乱七八糟不符合基本面的，中国的股市不是不符合基本面，而是他们没有搞清楚什么是基本面。依我来看，我们的股市非常符合基本面，而且符合的不得了，而股市的基本面就是我国投资营商环境迅速恶化，这个基本面太重要了，它决定了我国这么长时间的股市走向。同样的问题到了2009年，投资营商环境更加恶化的情况下，银行增加了大规模的信贷给企业，而企业在投资营商环境恶化之下找不到投资出路，而钱只能用在短期，他们能干的只是炒股，从而拉抬股市造成了股市回暖现象，但是这种回暖现象所象征的实质意义就是投资营商环境的持续恶化。
政府为了提升经济推出了很多的经济刺激方案，因此我国目前企业的资金还是比较充裕的，因为政府特意的、大量的释放资金入场。08年由于政府宏观调控的误判，银行透过提高利率和存款准备金率大量回收资金，使得所有企业缺资金，大企业缺大钱小企业缺小钱，在企业缺钱的情况下，投资营商环境又恶化，所以股市是连续下跌，但是今天投资营商环境更加恶化了，可是钱突然多了，其结果必定反映在股票市场，并且是股价大涨，可是这个能否持续就要看银行资金能否持续，只要银行资金继续宽松股价就会涨，而这个时候股民要小心了，这个叫泡沫现象，这个泡沫和06年、07年、08年完全不一样。为了给广大股民一个正确的指导方针，我把06、07、08、09这四年股市走势的资金驱动，也就是资金与环境恶化两个互动你可以非常清楚地判断出股市的走向，我希望09年能让各位股民赚回一点钱。
06年开始一直到09年整个社会的投资营商环境直线下滑，06年和07年进入股市拉抬股价的资金，就是那些制造业的资金，而且我认为是以民营企业为主的制造业资金进入股市、进入楼市。由于环境恶化，所以很多民营企业家不想干了，大量资金进入楼市与股市的结果就是从06年开始到07年年底的泡沫现象，到了08年投资营商环境持续恶化，可是政府的宏观调控从07年政府的中央经济工作会议之后，执行严格的两防政策，银行大量收回授信，所以使得大中小型企业各个缺钱，再加上投资营商环境的恶化，使得整个股市大幅走低，一直到了08年的10月，政府推出了4万亿的救市工程，这个概念推出来之后激活了股票市场的资金流入，所以形成暂时股市上升现象，但是其后还是会下跌，因这都是短期泡沫， 12月5000亿，一月的6000多亿以及后来的资金持续注入企业，而企业所面临的投资营商环境持续恶化，所以这一次的驱动力量就是大型企业，尤其是大型国企，他拿到了银行授信，部分进入股市，造成泡沫现象。那我们如何判断09年往后的股市呢？按我现在来看，投资营商环境恶化是个必然，所以大家不要期待企业会拿钱去好好的干实业，他们手上只要钱多了就开始炒楼炒股，手中有钱又不好投资又碰到十大产业振兴方案，所以这一拉抬起来很过隐。
股民如何赚钱
新概念振兴方案出来之后，我认为这个钱只会多不会少，因为政府急，希望能透过银行融资来提升企业的经营水平或经营能力，可是经济理论是改变不了的。如果有新概念出来，配合上这么庞大的资金量在社会流转，你还有一轮的机会，但那又是短期的。大家要学聪明一点，要快进快出，而且我发现这个时候是大盘掩护中小盘，连基金我都怀疑他是被动的受害者，所以股民如果想再进的话，我建议不要以基金为主体。如果实在穷极无聊有时间的话，按照我的思路，先判定银行融资够不够，如果银行融资大量放出的话，只要政府有新的利好消息一出来，就要针对有关的行业进行短期冲刺，我相信是无往不利的。而且这一波上升本身就很奇怪，像医药版块本身就没有什么道理，比如说，医药改革方案出来，医药价格会降低，所以医药公司利润也会下降，股价也应该会下跌的，这才比较合理。但是有一些股票大涨，甚至涨了当初6000点的水平，到底是为什么？这一次我判定和外资有关，因为医药版块会成为外资企业09年收购重镇，如果收购了我国的医药企业，外国的药品就顺利进入中国的医疗市场，进而合法的定价，合法的出售，而我们很多中国人需要好药，这些药品一进来，加上外资撑控一种运销渠道，一定能大赚其钱，这就有可能会使得他们在这个时候大量的进货，来控制医药版块，为下一个阶段外资大量并购预先铺路，所以我认为很可能下一波就是和外资大量并购有关的行业是一个新兴的版块。外资不但可以透过撑控企业的股权赚钱，同时通过股价的操纵利于未来的收购和资本运作。当然，我自己是不炒股的，这是我把研究之后的一点心得告诉广大股民，我也希望如果有人听了我的话赚钱了，请注意我的一句话：郎教授是金融博士，但从来不买金融产品的，越复杂的越不买，越有概念的越不买，合同越厚的越不买。
货币市场上的投资机会
除了股票市场之外我建议各位，由于美国政府需要投放大量的美元进入市场，包括以前我说的，要投资超过十万亿美元进行美国的救市，而且都知道货币印的越多越贬值，但是从去年的7月开始一直到3月，我们发现美金不跌反涨。一个政府会让这个国家的货币不跌反涨只有一个原因，那就是他要借钱。如果要借钱的话，美元涨的越高越有利，所以目前我认为美国政府为了达到借钱的目的一定要让美元涨，然而美元涨是违反市场规律的，其结果就会造成外汇市场上各种货币之间价格的大幅波动，而大幅波动就是机会。以目前美元与欧元为例，这个时刻我肯定的判断，这是欧盟与美国之间的勾结。请想一下，在目前情况之下，什么样的汇率是既有利于美国又有利于欧盟？那就是美元涨欧元跌。欧盟的大国只有德法两个，这两个国家是以出口为主要的经济动力，所以欧元跌对于德法两国的出口有利好的刺激作用，能够尽快使得欧盟经济脱离萧条；而美国政府要借钱，所以美元要涨，这也是为什么美国政府的平准基金正在大肆的抛欧元。当你了解这个原则之后，大家可以在美元与欧元之间取得一个平衡。欧元越跌你将来越要进欧元，要低价吃进，将来会反转，具体什么时候我不知道，但是一定会反转。所以今天我认为不论是在本国或在国际市场上都会有大量的机会给老百姓赚钱。在这个时候就要有新概念，要彻底的理解股市、外汇市场。
美国政府操纵黄金
投资者要买黄金要用什么币去买？黄金都是美元定价的，想买黄金一定要用美元去买，因此黄金的操纵者我认为是美国政府，黄金价格大肆拉抬的目的就是透过投资者用美元去买黄金而大量回收美元，这样有利于美元的升值。当然，美国政府不会这么说，这是我对它的判断，所以我认为美国政府一方面通过他的平准基金抛欧元，让欧元跌，美元相对涨，同时为了大量收回货币，除了在本国做一些大家不知道的包括卖国债给银行、与银行直接交易等大量收回美金的事情之外，在国际市场上拉抬黄金价格大量回收美元，使美元大量回收有利于美元升值。
通过前面的分析，指出了中国股市涨、黄金涨、美元涨、欧元跌的原因，所以，如果想投资一定要非常清楚的了解背后的四大原因：中国股市涨是寄托于不断恶化的投资营商环境，并且银行资金大量进入股市炒作有概念的股票，同时炒作外资想进入以及政府想拉抬的行业；黄金会随美元的大涨而大涨，大涨的原因是美国政府透过黄金的涨价收回美元，有助于美元的升值。美元升值是违反经济理论的，仅仅是因为美国政府的操纵，通过平准基金大量的抛欧元，使欧元贬值，有利于欧盟中德法等主要经济体的复苏。
股市回暖的实质意义
二月份中国股市最高涨到了2400多点，请股民注意为什么一二月份会上涨？带着这个疑问想一下2006年，你会发现股市的基本面是不变的。中国2006年开始的股市泡沫、楼市泡沫和通货膨胀，如果按照日本上世纪80、90年代的故事，我们肯定认为是流动性过剩，因为当时的日本银行降低利率水平、放松信贷规模，使得银行信贷大量的流通，造成流动性过剩。2006年学术界就发生一个争论，大部分经济学家说中国也是流动性过剩，当时我认为并不是简单的流动性过剩，而是由于企业所面临的投资营商环境开始恶化。政府的各项政策包括宏观调控像提高利率跟存款准备金率，进一步打击了我国企业的投资营商环境，因此大量的资金从制造业转到股市楼市造成泡沫现象。同样的问题到了2009年，投资环境在没有有效改善之外，加上国际金融海啸的冲击，使得企业所面临的环境更加恶劣。如果这个时候银行体系大量放松贷款，那企业能做什么？
以一月份为例，一月新增贷款1.62万亿元，名义上听起来是一个很好的数字，银行为了刺激经济，增加了1.62万亿元的信贷。1.62万亿当中有0.6万亿左右是企业的票据融资，剩下的1万亿大部分是基础建设，真正用于改善投资营商环境或者说真正用于民营企业或者讲的更具体一点用于中小企业的几乎是零，也就是说这么大的信贷规模推出来的结果一个是银行给地方政府从事基础建设，一个是银行给大型企业尤其是大型国企进行票据融资。而且票据融资的利息非常低，目前是1.5%。票据融资只能做短期周转之用，当成企业的流动资金，比如发薪水、购买原材料等。去年十二月，票据融资是5000亿，一月是6239多亿，那么当去年12月拿到了5000亿，今年一月又拿到6239亿的钱之后，由于企业面临着投资营商环境的恶化，他准备做什么，又能干什么？因为票据只能用在短期，所以不能炒楼，只能炒股。当时我在极视网回答网友问题的时候说一万多亿的资金部分会进入股市拉抬股价，而这也就是近期股市上涨的原因。
中国银监会在今年2月13号通知要查帐，股价立刻大跌，因为要赶快把钱套现放回银行。激增的流动性资金去向也引起了监管层的注意，但是和07年不一样，07年银监会调查违规资金入市的力度非常大，这一次银监会没有向各大银行严查是否有违规资金入市的情况，央行也只是提醒各大银行关注票据激增的现象，没有警告也没有查处，结果是雷声大雨点小，所以这一波的走势完全印证了我在2006年的观点。过去很多专家学者总认为中国的股市是乱七八糟不符合基本面的，中国的股市不是不符合基本面，而是他们没有搞清楚什么是基本面。依我来看，我们的股市非常符合基本面，而且符合的不得了，而股市的基本面就是我国投资营商环境迅速恶化，这个基本面太重要了，它决定了我国这么长时间的股市走向。同样的问题到了2009年，投资营商环境更加恶化的情况下，银行增加了大规模的信贷给企业，而企业在投资营商环境恶化之下找不到投资出路，而钱只能用在短期，他们能干的只是炒股，从而拉抬股市造成了股市回暖现象，但是这种回暖现象所象征的实质意义就是投资营商环境的持续恶化。
政府为了提升经济推出了很多的经济刺激方案，因此我国目前企业的资金还是比较充裕的，因为政府特意的、大量的释放资金入场。08年由于政府宏观调控的误判，银行透过提高利率和存款准备金率大量回收资金，使得所有企业缺资金，大企业缺大钱小企业缺小钱，在企业缺钱的情况下，投资营商环境又恶化，所以股市是连续下跌，但是今天投资营商环境更加恶化了，可是钱突然多了，其结果必定反映在股票市场，并且是股价大涨，可是这个能否持续就要看银行资金能否持续，只要银行资金继续宽松股价就会涨，而这个时候股民要小心了，这个叫泡沫现象，这个泡沫和06年、07年、08年完全不一样。为了给广大股民一个正确的指导方针，我把06、07、08、09这四年股市走势的资金驱动，也就是资金与环境恶化两个互动你可以非常清楚地判断出股市的走向，我希望09年能让各位股民赚回一点钱。
06年开始一直到09年整个社会的投资营商环境直线下滑，06年和07年进入股市拉抬股价的资金，就是那些制造业的资金，而且我认为是以民营企业为主的制造业资金进入股市、进入楼市。由于环境恶化，所以很多民营企业家不想干了，大量资金进入楼市与股市的结果就是从06年开始到07年年底的泡沫现象，到了08年投资营商环境持续恶化，可是政府的宏观调控从07年政府的中央经济工作会议之后，执行严格的两防政策，银行大量收回授信，所以使得大中小型企业各个缺钱，再加上投资营商环境的恶化，使得整个股市大幅走低，一直到了08年的10月，政府推出了4万亿的救市工程，这个概念推出来之后激活了股票市场的资金流入，所以形成暂时股市上升现象，但是其后还是会下跌，因这都是短期泡沫， 12月5000亿，一月的6000多亿以及后来的资金持续注入企业，而企业所面临的投资营商环境持续恶化，所以这一次的驱动力量就是大型企业，尤其是大型国企，他拿到了银行授信，部分进入股市，造成泡沫现象。那我们如何判断09年往后的股市呢？按我现在来看，投资营商环境恶化是个必然，所以大家不要期待企业会拿钱去好好的干实业，他们手上只要钱多了就开始炒楼炒股，手中有钱又不好投资又碰到十大产业振兴方案，所以这一拉抬起来很过隐。
股民如何赚钱
新概念振兴方案出来之后，我认为这个钱只会多不会少，因为政府急，希望能透过银行融资来提升企业的经营水平或经营能力，可是经济理论是改变不了的。如果有新概念出来，配合上这么庞大的资金量在社会流转，你还有一轮的机会，但那又是短期的。大家要学聪明一点，要快进快出，而且我发现这个时候是大盘掩护中小盘，连基金我都怀疑他是被动的受害者，所以股民如果想再进的话，我建议不要以基金为主体。如果实在穷极无聊有时间的话，按照我的思路，先判定银行融资够不够，如果银行融资大量放出的话，只要政府有新的利好消息一出来，就要针对有关的行业进行短期冲刺，我相信是无往不利的。而且这一波上升本身就很奇怪，像医药版块本身就没有什么道理，比如说，医药改革方案出来，医药价格会降低，所以医药公司利润也会下降，股价也应该会下跌的，这才比较合理。但是有一些股票大涨，甚至涨了当初6000点的水平，到底是为什么？这一次我判定和外资有关，因为医药版块会成为外资企业09年收购重镇，如果收购了我国的医药企业，外国的药品就顺利进入中国的医疗市场，进而合法的定价，合法的出售，而我们很多中国人需要好药，这些药品一进来，加上外资撑控一种运销渠道，一定能大赚其钱，这就有可能会使得他们在这个时候大量的进货，来控制医药版块，为下一个阶段外资大量并购预先铺路，所以我认为很可能下一波就是和外资大量并购有关的行业是一个新兴的版块。外资不但可以透过撑控企业的股权赚钱，同时通过股价的操纵利于未来的收购和资本运作。当然，我自己是不炒股的，这是我把研究之后的一点心得告诉广大股民，我也希望如果有人听了我的话赚钱了，请注意我的一句话：郎教授是金融博士，但从来不买金融产品的，越复杂的越不买，越有概念的越不买，合同越厚的越不买。
货币市场上的投资机会
除了股票市场之外我建议各位，由于美国政府需要投放大量的美元进入市场，包括以前我说的，要投资超过十万亿美元进行美国的救市，而且都知道货币印的越多越贬值，但是从去年的7月开始一直到3月，我们发现美金不跌反涨。一个政府会让这个国家的货币不跌反涨只有一个原因，那就是他要借钱。如果要借钱的话，美元涨的越高越有利，所以目前我认为美国政府为了达到借钱的目的一定要让美元涨，然而美元涨是违反市场规律的，其结果就会造成外汇市场上各种货币之间价格的大幅波动，而大幅波动就是机会。以目前美元与欧元为例，这个时刻我肯定的判断，这是欧盟与美国之间的勾结。请想一下，在目前情况之下，什么样的汇率是既有利于美国又有利于欧盟？那就是美元涨欧元跌。欧盟的大国只有德法两个，这两个国家是以出口为主要的经济动力，所以欧元跌对于德法两国的出口有利好的刺激作用，能够尽快使得欧盟经济脱离萧条；而美国政府要借钱，所以美元要涨，这也是为什么美国政府的平准基金正在大肆的抛欧元。当你了解这个原则之后，大家可以在美元与欧元之间取得一个平衡。欧元越跌你将来越要进欧元，要低价吃进，将来会反转，具体什么时候我不知道，但是一定会反转。所以今天我认为不论是在本国或在国际市场上都会有大量的机会给老百姓赚钱。在这个时候就要有新概念，要彻底的理解股市、外汇市场。
美国政府操纵黄金
投资者要买黄金要用什么币去买？黄金都是美元定价的，想买黄金一定要用美元去买，因此黄金的操纵者我认为是美国政府，黄金价格大肆拉抬的目的就是透过投资者用美元去买黄金而大量回收美元，这样有利于美元的升值。当然，美国政府不会这么说，这是我对它的判断，所以我认为美国政府一方面通过他的平准基金抛欧元，让欧元跌，美元相对涨，同时为了大量收回货币，除了在本国做一些大家不知道的包括卖国债给银行、与银行直接交易等大量收回美金的事情之外，在国际市场上拉抬黄金价格大量回收美元，使美元大量回收有利于美元升值。
通过前面的分析，指出了中国股市涨、黄金涨、美元涨、欧元跌的原因，所以，如果想投资一定要非常清楚的了解背后的四大原因：中国股市涨是寄托于不断恶化的投资营商环境，并且银行资金大量进入股市炒作有概念的股票，同时炒作外资想进入以及政府想拉抬的行业；黄金会随美元的大涨而大涨，大涨的原因是美国政府透过黄金的涨价收回美元，有助于美元的升值。美元升值是违反经济理论的，仅仅是因为美国政府的操纵，通过平准基金大量的抛欧元，使欧元贬值，有利于欧盟中德法等主要经济体的复苏。
Paying a High Price for a Cheery Consensus
Yes, those of you who saw the title are probably thinking it looks very familiar ! It was actually a quote from Warren Buffett when he mentioned that you “pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus”. I must admit yours truly was quite stumped when I first came across this statement and was wondering what it meant and what implications it had. Initially, I thought he was referring to paying high prices for shares of companies and thereby agreeing with what everyone thought about the company – a form of herd behaviour. Later I realized I was quite wrong when I was thinking about the stock market and the full meaning of this statement hit me like a bolt of lightning from above.
In the context of this bear market, we can be considered to be experiencing one of the worst bear markets and recessions in at least the last 70 years. In fact, economists and market experts have termed this period as “The Great Recession” as many aspects mirror the Great Depression era of the 1930’s, with the exception of more globalization now, more co-ordinated stimulus efforts and more liquidity being pumped into each economy by respective central banks. Most investors have seen their portfolios literally melting like hot candle wax since October 2007 to the troughs seen in October 2008 and more recently, March 2009. Economists and government officials have gone on record stating that the recession does not seem to be lifting any time soon and there is a lack of clarity and visibility on how things will turn out. In Singapore, the MAS revised their GDP forecasts for Singapore for FY 2009 to a range of -6% to -9% (from -2% to -5% just a few months back). Exports are falling off a cliff and year-on-year GDP growth rate for 1Q 2009 has slumped 19% to make it the worst quarter since Singapore became independent.
So what does all this news portend for the retail investor ? Well, for starters, Mr. Market has become very pessimistic and is willing to pay very low prices for most companies, be they good or bad. This is where the phrase comes in – we tend to pay high “prices” (i.e. valuations) for a cheery consensus (clarity and certainty). The words in brackets help to explain the sentence in the context of how it should be viewed. Valuations are low when there is a lack of clarity, companies are reported declining profits and analysts are scrambling to value companies based on Price-to-book, rather than Price-to-Earnings. This is because earnings have become so uncertain that a different metric must be used, they argue. Price to book is “safer” in that it assumes a more conservative stance with respect to a company’s book value, which is usually the liquidation value of a company after accounting for its assets and liabilities; rather than volatile earnings which can fluctuate from period to period due to the severe slump in consumption and lack of financing options for growing the business.
Hence, an investor cannot have the best of both worlds. I repeat, it is impossible to have the cake and eat it too ! What I mean is that one cannot have clarity and certainty on a Company’s future growth and earnings, yet expect to pay a low price for it. A “cheery consensus” means that everyone is happy and satisfied with a company’s future, and thus when this happens, we inevitably end up paying a very high “price” for it, meaning margin of safety would be lesser; as compared to when the future is cloudy and murky and uncertainty reigns.
The lessons one should take away from this is that uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values, after assessing the corporate strategies and financial fundamentals of the company in question of course. Uncertainty is the only guarantee in the stock markets and as investors, we deal with uncertainty ALL THE TIME. Every earnings report is uncertain, as is the ability of a company to continue to pay dividends and grow earnings. What investors need to realize is that instead of avoiding uncertainty, we have to manage it actively and learn to live with it. We have to learn to pay low prices for a certain tolerable level of uncertainty, and to be able to bravely invest even when the future is highly uncertain (as it is as of this writing).
How can one mitigate against the risks of being wrong about uncertainty and buying a dud company ? I for one use qualitative metrics such as Management experience, how they navigated previous downturns, their track record over 5-6 years in growing the business, their conservatism (or aggressiveness) as well as how they allocate capital. To give some pertinent examples, I will use Tat Hong and Swiber to illustrate.
Swiber recently bought back some of the company’s shares at a price above S$1.00 when it could have used the cash to fund its capex program. Now it is fervently selling off OBT and also part-ownership of its vessels (Swiber Victorious and Swiber Chai) to raise more funds as the downturn intensifies. This is what I call a “horse behind cannon” move as Management should have anticipated the global credit crunch more astutely and begun to conserve cash instead of using it on share repurchases at much higher prices than the current market price. To me, this is a classic case of poor allocation of capital on the part of Management and also an inability to properly manage a crisis, reflecting inexperience. This is not surprising since Swiber is only a 13-year old company established in 1996, and was only recently listed in 2006.
Tat Hong, by contrast, has shown much resilience in its business model as it switches from an equipment sales company to a rental company. Management has about 30years of experience in this industry and have been through crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Dot.Com bust. Through such crises and economic downturns, they have learnt how to conserve cash and protect profits from eroding quickly. The experience from past recessions has served them in navigating the current rough seas, and even though they are not totally unscathed, at least I view them as being more astute in Management capital than Swiber.
So the key to investing successfully is to observe Management’s quality and to avoid paying too high a price for a “cheery consensus”. Learn to expect uncertainty and to invest because of it, as that is the only way one can lock in low valuations and achieve one’s desired margin of safety.
In the context of this bear market, we can be considered to be experiencing one of the worst bear markets and recessions in at least the last 70 years. In fact, economists and market experts have termed this period as “The Great Recession” as many aspects mirror the Great Depression era of the 1930’s, with the exception of more globalization now, more co-ordinated stimulus efforts and more liquidity being pumped into each economy by respective central banks. Most investors have seen their portfolios literally melting like hot candle wax since October 2007 to the troughs seen in October 2008 and more recently, March 2009. Economists and government officials have gone on record stating that the recession does not seem to be lifting any time soon and there is a lack of clarity and visibility on how things will turn out. In Singapore, the MAS revised their GDP forecasts for Singapore for FY 2009 to a range of -6% to -9% (from -2% to -5% just a few months back). Exports are falling off a cliff and year-on-year GDP growth rate for 1Q 2009 has slumped 19% to make it the worst quarter since Singapore became independent.
So what does all this news portend for the retail investor ? Well, for starters, Mr. Market has become very pessimistic and is willing to pay very low prices for most companies, be they good or bad. This is where the phrase comes in – we tend to pay high “prices” (i.e. valuations) for a cheery consensus (clarity and certainty). The words in brackets help to explain the sentence in the context of how it should be viewed. Valuations are low when there is a lack of clarity, companies are reported declining profits and analysts are scrambling to value companies based on Price-to-book, rather than Price-to-Earnings. This is because earnings have become so uncertain that a different metric must be used, they argue. Price to book is “safer” in that it assumes a more conservative stance with respect to a company’s book value, which is usually the liquidation value of a company after accounting for its assets and liabilities; rather than volatile earnings which can fluctuate from period to period due to the severe slump in consumption and lack of financing options for growing the business.
Hence, an investor cannot have the best of both worlds. I repeat, it is impossible to have the cake and eat it too ! What I mean is that one cannot have clarity and certainty on a Company’s future growth and earnings, yet expect to pay a low price for it. A “cheery consensus” means that everyone is happy and satisfied with a company’s future, and thus when this happens, we inevitably end up paying a very high “price” for it, meaning margin of safety would be lesser; as compared to when the future is cloudy and murky and uncertainty reigns.
The lessons one should take away from this is that uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values, after assessing the corporate strategies and financial fundamentals of the company in question of course. Uncertainty is the only guarantee in the stock markets and as investors, we deal with uncertainty ALL THE TIME. Every earnings report is uncertain, as is the ability of a company to continue to pay dividends and grow earnings. What investors need to realize is that instead of avoiding uncertainty, we have to manage it actively and learn to live with it. We have to learn to pay low prices for a certain tolerable level of uncertainty, and to be able to bravely invest even when the future is highly uncertain (as it is as of this writing).
How can one mitigate against the risks of being wrong about uncertainty and buying a dud company ? I for one use qualitative metrics such as Management experience, how they navigated previous downturns, their track record over 5-6 years in growing the business, their conservatism (or aggressiveness) as well as how they allocate capital. To give some pertinent examples, I will use Tat Hong and Swiber to illustrate.
Swiber recently bought back some of the company’s shares at a price above S$1.00 when it could have used the cash to fund its capex program. Now it is fervently selling off OBT and also part-ownership of its vessels (Swiber Victorious and Swiber Chai) to raise more funds as the downturn intensifies. This is what I call a “horse behind cannon” move as Management should have anticipated the global credit crunch more astutely and begun to conserve cash instead of using it on share repurchases at much higher prices than the current market price. To me, this is a classic case of poor allocation of capital on the part of Management and also an inability to properly manage a crisis, reflecting inexperience. This is not surprising since Swiber is only a 13-year old company established in 1996, and was only recently listed in 2006.
Tat Hong, by contrast, has shown much resilience in its business model as it switches from an equipment sales company to a rental company. Management has about 30years of experience in this industry and have been through crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Dot.Com bust. Through such crises and economic downturns, they have learnt how to conserve cash and protect profits from eroding quickly. The experience from past recessions has served them in navigating the current rough seas, and even though they are not totally unscathed, at least I view them as being more astute in Management capital than Swiber.
So the key to investing successfully is to observe Management’s quality and to avoid paying too high a price for a “cheery consensus”. Learn to expect uncertainty and to invest because of it, as that is the only way one can lock in low valuations and achieve one’s desired margin of safety.
T. Boone Pickens sees oil at $75 at end-year
Texas oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens on Monday reiterated his prediction that crude oil prices would hit $75 a barrel this year as producers scale back production.
Pickens said about OPEC producers: "They told you they want $75 by the end of the year, I would count on that, I believe them."
OPEC has scaled back output to help support crude prices, which have dropped from record highs over $147 a barrel in July to around $47 a barrel on Monday.
"I think you are going to clean up the stocks because the people who have the oil are cutting supply," Pickens said at an alternative fuels and vehicles conference, referring to the nearly 19-year high on U.S. inventories of crude oil reported last week by the federal government.
The United States would likely burn through its supply overhang in three months, he told reporters.
Pickens said about OPEC producers: "They told you they want $75 by the end of the year, I would count on that, I believe them."
OPEC has scaled back output to help support crude prices, which have dropped from record highs over $147 a barrel in July to around $47 a barrel on Monday.
"I think you are going to clean up the stocks because the people who have the oil are cutting supply," Pickens said at an alternative fuels and vehicles conference, referring to the nearly 19-year high on U.S. inventories of crude oil reported last week by the federal government.
The United States would likely burn through its supply overhang in three months, he told reporters.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Is This the Beginning of a Bull Market, or Just a Breather for the Bear?
Since sinking to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index had risen 24% — the best such short-term rally since 1933. But this isn’t 1933 and you shouldn’t trust the rally. Happy Days are NOT here again, at least not yet.
The 1933 rally came after a record-breaking decline. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 25% during the Great Depression and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by almost 90%.
What is less well known, however, is that valuations remained depressed for well over a decade after 1933. In 1949, when the Dow was selling at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just 7 times, it was cheaper in terms of earnings, net asset value, and GDP than it had been at its 1932 nadir.
This time around, the S&P 500 index fell 58% from its 2007 peak to its March 9 bottom at the superstitiously significant 666. Of course, 58% is nowhere near as much as 90%. To recover from a 58% drop the stock market must rise by 138%, but it must rise by 1,000% to recover from a 90% drop.
So it is not surprising that in spite of inflation and enormous economic growth, the Dow did not reach its 1929 level until 1954.
The other difference between 2009 and 1933 is that the 2008 stock market peak was both higher and more prolonged than it was in 1929, which was a mere blip by comparison.
Radio Corporation of America - 1929’s equivalent of Cisco Systems Inc. or Google Inc. - never got above 28 times earnings in that market, and the Dow spent less than three years within 50% of its peak value of 381.17, only passing 200 in December 1927, and finally falling below that level in August 1930.
In this market, the Dow was above 7,000 - within 50% of its 14,164 peak - continually from May 1997 until February 2009. Because the 2000s market was more overvalued for longer for a longer period of time, it has further to fall, even without a “Great Depression” economically.
The current rally has been based on signs that the U.S. banking system is not about to expire - a development I wrote about in an article entitled “The Top 12 U.S. Banks: From Zombies to Hidden Gems” in late February.
Apart from the very largest banks, which gorged themselves on the most foolish and ill-designed products of the derivatives business, the banking system is suffering from a normal real estate downturn and is coping well with the high levels of loss that downturn has brought. With short-term interest rates well below long-term rates, banks’ ongoing lending business is currently exceptionally profitable.
The U.S. economy, as a whole, has stopped falling with ever-increasing velocity and may actually be beginning a lengthy “bottoming out” process. Had politicians avoided meddling with the monetary and fiscal systems of the globe, devoting trillions of dollars to bailouts and stimulus, the bottom we are approaching might well be somewhat deeper, but we could at least be sure that it was indeed the bottom, with recovery to follow.
In Asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where stimulus has been modest, and in China where it has created only a modest budget deficit, the sharp recession caused by collapsing exports is already coming to an end. (China, however, has a major banking and real estate problem that could still cause trouble down the road.)
But in the United States, we can have no such assurance. Monetary policy, which was far too expansive in 1995-2008, reached expansiveness of extraordinary dimensions after last September’s crisis, with the monetary base doubling and broad money expanding at a rate of more than 15%. Fiscal policy has produced record peacetime deficits - deficits that are more than double the previous peacetime record. The Federal budget deficit in 2009 will be double the 2007 balance of payments deficit, which had previously been thought of as a critical and dangerous imbalance.
With imbalances of this size, there can be no assurance that a recessionary bottom will be followed by recovery, quite the opposite. Japan has now suffered near-recessionary conditions for almost two decades with a weak recovery in 2003-07. And that modest recovery is now being followed by a new recession as the Japanese government foolishly resorted to more wasteful public spending and debt.
Fiscal stimulus stimulates nothing in a country where public debt is already 160% of GDP; instead it increases uncertainty and crowds out risk-taking private capital.
The most likely scenario for the United States is a recession, or near-recession, that lasts for a decade with the economy unsuccessfully struggling against the twin problems of surging inflation and a budget deficit that crowds out private capital investment. Either real interest rates will be high to combat inflation or inflation will rage out of control.
In such an environment, the outlook for stocks is bleak. The high stock prices of 1996-2008 have gone, and they will not return. When the excessive monetary expansion began in the spring of 1995, the Dow was at 4,000. That is equivalent to a level of 7,800 today when you inflate it by the increase in nominal GDP since 1995.
However, 1995 was not a bear market low. It was far from it. The market had been rising for four years since its 1990 bottom and was almost 50% above its 1987 peak, just before the “Black Monday” crash.
Thus, even if the economy had the growth prospects of 1995, a level of 7,800 on the Dow would be a reasonable expectation, not for a bear market low but for an equilibrium value. If you then take into account the markedly worse expectations for the U.S. economy resulting from excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus, 7,800 is too high.
Take the 1949 P/E multiple of 7, and apply it to a recovering earnings level of say $60 on the Standard and Poor’s 500, and you get an S&P of 420 - equivalent to a Dow of around 4,000.
The market is no longer hugely overvalued with the Dow at 8,000, but any rally will be temporary, and we can expect an eventual low well below the 6,547 the Dow reached last month.
The 1933 rally came after a record-breaking decline. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 25% during the Great Depression and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by almost 90%.
What is less well known, however, is that valuations remained depressed for well over a decade after 1933. In 1949, when the Dow was selling at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just 7 times, it was cheaper in terms of earnings, net asset value, and GDP than it had been at its 1932 nadir.
This time around, the S&P 500 index fell 58% from its 2007 peak to its March 9 bottom at the superstitiously significant 666. Of course, 58% is nowhere near as much as 90%. To recover from a 58% drop the stock market must rise by 138%, but it must rise by 1,000% to recover from a 90% drop.
So it is not surprising that in spite of inflation and enormous economic growth, the Dow did not reach its 1929 level until 1954.
The other difference between 2009 and 1933 is that the 2008 stock market peak was both higher and more prolonged than it was in 1929, which was a mere blip by comparison.
Radio Corporation of America - 1929’s equivalent of Cisco Systems Inc. or Google Inc. - never got above 28 times earnings in that market, and the Dow spent less than three years within 50% of its peak value of 381.17, only passing 200 in December 1927, and finally falling below that level in August 1930.
In this market, the Dow was above 7,000 - within 50% of its 14,164 peak - continually from May 1997 until February 2009. Because the 2000s market was more overvalued for longer for a longer period of time, it has further to fall, even without a “Great Depression” economically.
The current rally has been based on signs that the U.S. banking system is not about to expire - a development I wrote about in an article entitled “The Top 12 U.S. Banks: From Zombies to Hidden Gems” in late February.
Apart from the very largest banks, which gorged themselves on the most foolish and ill-designed products of the derivatives business, the banking system is suffering from a normal real estate downturn and is coping well with the high levels of loss that downturn has brought. With short-term interest rates well below long-term rates, banks’ ongoing lending business is currently exceptionally profitable.
The U.S. economy, as a whole, has stopped falling with ever-increasing velocity and may actually be beginning a lengthy “bottoming out” process. Had politicians avoided meddling with the monetary and fiscal systems of the globe, devoting trillions of dollars to bailouts and stimulus, the bottom we are approaching might well be somewhat deeper, but we could at least be sure that it was indeed the bottom, with recovery to follow.
In Asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where stimulus has been modest, and in China where it has created only a modest budget deficit, the sharp recession caused by collapsing exports is already coming to an end. (China, however, has a major banking and real estate problem that could still cause trouble down the road.)
But in the United States, we can have no such assurance. Monetary policy, which was far too expansive in 1995-2008, reached expansiveness of extraordinary dimensions after last September’s crisis, with the monetary base doubling and broad money expanding at a rate of more than 15%. Fiscal policy has produced record peacetime deficits - deficits that are more than double the previous peacetime record. The Federal budget deficit in 2009 will be double the 2007 balance of payments deficit, which had previously been thought of as a critical and dangerous imbalance.
With imbalances of this size, there can be no assurance that a recessionary bottom will be followed by recovery, quite the opposite. Japan has now suffered near-recessionary conditions for almost two decades with a weak recovery in 2003-07. And that modest recovery is now being followed by a new recession as the Japanese government foolishly resorted to more wasteful public spending and debt.
Fiscal stimulus stimulates nothing in a country where public debt is already 160% of GDP; instead it increases uncertainty and crowds out risk-taking private capital.
The most likely scenario for the United States is a recession, or near-recession, that lasts for a decade with the economy unsuccessfully struggling against the twin problems of surging inflation and a budget deficit that crowds out private capital investment. Either real interest rates will be high to combat inflation or inflation will rage out of control.
In such an environment, the outlook for stocks is bleak. The high stock prices of 1996-2008 have gone, and they will not return. When the excessive monetary expansion began in the spring of 1995, the Dow was at 4,000. That is equivalent to a level of 7,800 today when you inflate it by the increase in nominal GDP since 1995.
However, 1995 was not a bear market low. It was far from it. The market had been rising for four years since its 1990 bottom and was almost 50% above its 1987 peak, just before the “Black Monday” crash.
Thus, even if the economy had the growth prospects of 1995, a level of 7,800 on the Dow would be a reasonable expectation, not for a bear market low but for an equilibrium value. If you then take into account the markedly worse expectations for the U.S. economy resulting from excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus, 7,800 is too high.
Take the 1949 P/E multiple of 7, and apply it to a recovering earnings level of say $60 on the Standard and Poor’s 500, and you get an S&P of 420 - equivalent to a Dow of around 4,000.
The market is no longer hugely overvalued with the Dow at 8,000, but any rally will be temporary, and we can expect an eventual low well below the 6,547 the Dow reached last month.
The “Cheap Oil Era” is Ending Soon…
Oil prices have fallen 70% since hitting a record $147.27 a barrel in July, which means in just five months, crude has given up all the price gains it made in the past four years.
After such a wrenching plunge, many analysts believe the outlook for the “black gold” remains bleak - and in the short term it certainly is. In the long run, however, dwindling supplies, resurgent demand, and a lack of investment will cause crude oil to double, triple, or even quintuple in price over the next few years.
In fact, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) - energy advisor to 28 industrialized nations - says oil will rise to $100 a barrel by 2015, as a result of a major “supply crunch,” and will ultimately soar to $200 a barrel.
But before it does, prices are likely to sink even further, perhaps falling as low as $20 a barrel in the first quarter of the New Year.
Indeed, much of Wall Street expects oil prices to average about $50 a barrel in 2009. Some of the firms and their specific forecasts include:
Deutsche Bank AG, which says oil prices will average $47.50 for all of next year.
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., which predicts that prices will average $50 even.
Moody’s Investors Service also says crude will average $50 a barrel in 2009, but says that average will increase to $55 a barrel for 2010.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is slightly more bearish, predicting that prices will average $45 for all of next year - after falling as low as $30 in the 2009 first quarter. (It’s worth noting that Goldman - just five months ago - predicted oil prices would hit $200 a barrel in 2009).
But analysts also agree on something else: When the recessionary tide finally recedes, all of the factors that drove oil to its record high last summer will once again be exposed, and crude will again soar to record highs.
“We may see prices drop lower - into the twenties, even - but there’s a better-than-average chance that they’ll be back over $70 a barrel by the end of next year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “That’s where firms like Goldman and Merrill are getting all of these ‘middle-of-the road,’ $50-a-barrel estimates. And it’s why investors who buy in through the first quarter could enjoy compelling returns at the end of the year.”
In the meantime, however, low oil prices are crimping investment in new capacity, a reality that will lead to much higher prices down the road.
Just ask the IEA.
IEA: Rising Demand + Lack of Investment = ‘Supply Crunch’
According to widely respected energy advisor, global oil demand will slide 0.2%, or 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), this year, falling to an average of 85.8 million bpd. But the IEA also says that oil demand will advance by an annual average of 1.6% between 2006 and 2030.
The bottom line: Regardless of any short-term pullback, daily demand will rise from the current level of 86 million barrels to 106 million barrels in 2030. In other words, daily demand in 2030 will be 23%.
To meet that demand, the agency estimates that the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investments over the next 21 years.
China, India and other developing countries, alone, will need investments of $360 billion a year through 2030, the agency said.
About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to be added to the market by 2015. And right now - because of marketplace changes - the financial incentives to make that happen just don’t exist.
Exploration costs have more than quadrupled since 2000, as oil producers have been forced to take on more complex projects, and the costs of both labor and materials have skyrocketed. At the same time, the steep drop in oil prices has put even more pressure on energy companies to curtail their investments rather than increase them.
Earlier this year, for instance, ConocoPhillips and Saudi Arabia Investment Co. were forced to postpone bidding on the construction of a 400,000 bpd export refinery at the Yanbu Industrial City.
“We see and hear about energy investments being delayed … this is a major worry and could lead to a supply crunch and much higher oil prices than we’ve seen before,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist.
The IEA predicts that, by 2015, a lack of investment and rising demand will create a “supply crunch” - that will once again send oil prices up into the triple digits.
“There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch in that time frame,” the IEA said in an executive summary of its “2008 World Energy Outlook.” “The gap between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”
The agency predicts that crude will average more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015and rise above $200 a barrel by 2030, as demand far outpaces supply.
“While the situation facing the world is critical, it is vital we keep our eye on the medium to long-term target of a sustainable energy future,” Nobuo Tanaka, the Paris-based agency’s executive director, told reporters in London. “While market imbalances will feed instability, the era of cheap oil is over.”
While it’s probably true that the “era of cheap oil” is in our rearview mirror, a new question has arisen: Just how high do oil prices go?
According to some analysts, the IEA’s target price of $200 a barrel is far too conservative.
$500 Oil?
The lack of exploration and development is certainly a problem. But a much bigger issue is the fact that output from the world’s existing oil fields has sharply declined.
“The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand,” the IEA says.
And output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought.
In its “2007 World Energy Outlook,” the IEA estimated that output from the world’s existing oilfields was declining by 3.7% a year. But in its latest report, published in November, the IEA revised that estimate to an annual decline of 6.7%. (The November report was based on the first major study of the world’s 800 largest oil fields.)
Unfortunately, the IEA is behind the curve.
For nearly a decade, Matthew R. Simmons has said that the world’s oil production was nearing - or already at - an “inflection point.” While his book “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” was scoffed at when it was originally published back in 2005, Simmons is now viewed as perhaps the preeminent expert on the so-called “peak oil” movement.
“Like most people who ignore conventional wisdom, he was scoffed at, ridiculed, and denied,” commodities guru Jim Rogers told Fortune magazine. “And now, of course, people are starting to say, ‘Oh, well, I thought of that.’”
Simmons, chairman of the Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co. International, poured through hundreds of technical documents submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years.
“I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon,” Simmons told Fortune, “and I sat back and thought, ‘Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I’ve just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We’re in big trouble. I’m going to write a book.’ “
Much of the alleged Saudi Arabia subterfuge has to do with a complete lack of transparency with respect to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. After OPEC decided to base its production quotas on reserve figures in the 1980s, several of the cartel’s producers suddenly raised their levels of “proven reserves” by 40% or more.
Back in 1988, for instance, Saudi Arabia raised its proven-reserve figure from 170 billion barrels to about 260 billion barrels. That figure has remained more or less constant since then, despite the fact that billions of barrels of oil have been pumped out of the ground.
“Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve,” Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview in Singapore recently. “It’s astonishing. The figure never goes up and it never goes down. They have produced dozens of millions - billions - of dollars of oil in that period of time.
“Every oil country in the world has declining reserves except Saudi Arabia,” Rogers said. ”And I know that every oil company has declining reserves. So unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly in very accessible areas, the surprise is going to be how high the price stays, and how high it goes.”
Simmons thinks oil prices could hit $300 a barrel - and could possibly even surge as high as $500 a barrel - during the next several years.
“Black Gold” Profit Plays
When it comes to investing, the oil sector poses some very clear risks, especially given the murky near-term outlook. However, there are a number of large-cap integrated oil companies that may offer some truly compelling values at current prices.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are currently trading at multi-year lows, making them exceptionally cheap in both relative and absolute terms. These companies also have strong balance sheets (Exxon is “AAA”- rated and has more cash on its balance sheet than debt), generate strong cash flows, and have traditionally increased their dividends on a regular basis.
Chevron was actually recommended as a “Buy” by Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez in his “Buy, Sell or Hold” column earlier this year.
“Chevron is the kind of company that is capable of continuing to post large profits - propelling its share higher from current levels - even if oil-and-gas prices were to drop from current levels over the next three years,” Marquez said. “That’s because Chevron’s business is well cushioned, since refining, marketing and chemicals margins would expand dramatically if market ’spot’ prices were to decline. Also, the company’s production is poised to expand strongly and Chevron uses some selective hedging that works very well in downside oil markets.”
Offshore drillers, particularly those capable of drilling in the deepest waters, also offer value at current levels. Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), also known as Petrobras, is particularly appealing, as it recently discovered one of the largest offshore oil fields on earth off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Known as Carioca, the field could hold 33 billion barrels of oil and gas, making the world’s largest discovery in at least 32 years.
Fitz-Gerald, the Money Morning investment director, suggests investors look at China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC Ltd. The Hong Kong-based company recently got approval for a $29 billion exploration project in the South China Sea. The company expects to produce 50 million tons of oil equivalent per year from that region during the next 10-20 years. That would equal the production of China’s biggest project, the Daqing Oil Field.
Petrobras and CNOOC are also attractive because, as foreign companies, they will also get a boost from any devaluation in the U.S. dollar.
All of these companies have been hit hard by the combination of commodity-price weakness and credit market turmoil. But these operators do not require peak-cycle commodity prices to generate stellar results and have little or no credit-market exposure.
For a more direct play on oil prices, you might also try an exchange-traded fund (ETF), such as the United States Oil Fund LP (USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Fund (OIL), or the United States Gasoline Fund LP.
[Editor's Note: As the whipsaw trading patterns energy investors have endured this year have shown, the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investment game forever. Uncertainty is now the norm and that new reality alone has created a whole set of new rules that will help determine who profits and who loses. Investors who ignore this "New Reality" will struggle, and will find their financial forays to be frustrating and unrewarding. But investors who embrace this change will not only survive - they will thrive.
After such a wrenching plunge, many analysts believe the outlook for the “black gold” remains bleak - and in the short term it certainly is. In the long run, however, dwindling supplies, resurgent demand, and a lack of investment will cause crude oil to double, triple, or even quintuple in price over the next few years.
In fact, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) - energy advisor to 28 industrialized nations - says oil will rise to $100 a barrel by 2015, as a result of a major “supply crunch,” and will ultimately soar to $200 a barrel.
But before it does, prices are likely to sink even further, perhaps falling as low as $20 a barrel in the first quarter of the New Year.
Indeed, much of Wall Street expects oil prices to average about $50 a barrel in 2009. Some of the firms and their specific forecasts include:
Deutsche Bank AG, which says oil prices will average $47.50 for all of next year.
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., which predicts that prices will average $50 even.
Moody’s Investors Service also says crude will average $50 a barrel in 2009, but says that average will increase to $55 a barrel for 2010.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is slightly more bearish, predicting that prices will average $45 for all of next year - after falling as low as $30 in the 2009 first quarter. (It’s worth noting that Goldman - just five months ago - predicted oil prices would hit $200 a barrel in 2009).
But analysts also agree on something else: When the recessionary tide finally recedes, all of the factors that drove oil to its record high last summer will once again be exposed, and crude will again soar to record highs.
“We may see prices drop lower - into the twenties, even - but there’s a better-than-average chance that they’ll be back over $70 a barrel by the end of next year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “That’s where firms like Goldman and Merrill are getting all of these ‘middle-of-the road,’ $50-a-barrel estimates. And it’s why investors who buy in through the first quarter could enjoy compelling returns at the end of the year.”
In the meantime, however, low oil prices are crimping investment in new capacity, a reality that will lead to much higher prices down the road.
Just ask the IEA.
IEA: Rising Demand + Lack of Investment = ‘Supply Crunch’
According to widely respected energy advisor, global oil demand will slide 0.2%, or 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), this year, falling to an average of 85.8 million bpd. But the IEA also says that oil demand will advance by an annual average of 1.6% between 2006 and 2030.
The bottom line: Regardless of any short-term pullback, daily demand will rise from the current level of 86 million barrels to 106 million barrels in 2030. In other words, daily demand in 2030 will be 23%.
To meet that demand, the agency estimates that the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investments over the next 21 years.
China, India and other developing countries, alone, will need investments of $360 billion a year through 2030, the agency said.
About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to be added to the market by 2015. And right now - because of marketplace changes - the financial incentives to make that happen just don’t exist.
Exploration costs have more than quadrupled since 2000, as oil producers have been forced to take on more complex projects, and the costs of both labor and materials have skyrocketed. At the same time, the steep drop in oil prices has put even more pressure on energy companies to curtail their investments rather than increase them.
Earlier this year, for instance, ConocoPhillips and Saudi Arabia Investment Co. were forced to postpone bidding on the construction of a 400,000 bpd export refinery at the Yanbu Industrial City.
“We see and hear about energy investments being delayed … this is a major worry and could lead to a supply crunch and much higher oil prices than we’ve seen before,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist.
The IEA predicts that, by 2015, a lack of investment and rising demand will create a “supply crunch” - that will once again send oil prices up into the triple digits.
“There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch in that time frame,” the IEA said in an executive summary of its “2008 World Energy Outlook.” “The gap between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”
The agency predicts that crude will average more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015and rise above $200 a barrel by 2030, as demand far outpaces supply.
“While the situation facing the world is critical, it is vital we keep our eye on the medium to long-term target of a sustainable energy future,” Nobuo Tanaka, the Paris-based agency’s executive director, told reporters in London. “While market imbalances will feed instability, the era of cheap oil is over.”
While it’s probably true that the “era of cheap oil” is in our rearview mirror, a new question has arisen: Just how high do oil prices go?
According to some analysts, the IEA’s target price of $200 a barrel is far too conservative.
$500 Oil?
The lack of exploration and development is certainly a problem. But a much bigger issue is the fact that output from the world’s existing oil fields has sharply declined.
“The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand,” the IEA says.
And output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought.
In its “2007 World Energy Outlook,” the IEA estimated that output from the world’s existing oilfields was declining by 3.7% a year. But in its latest report, published in November, the IEA revised that estimate to an annual decline of 6.7%. (The November report was based on the first major study of the world’s 800 largest oil fields.)
Unfortunately, the IEA is behind the curve.
For nearly a decade, Matthew R. Simmons has said that the world’s oil production was nearing - or already at - an “inflection point.” While his book “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” was scoffed at when it was originally published back in 2005, Simmons is now viewed as perhaps the preeminent expert on the so-called “peak oil” movement.
“Like most people who ignore conventional wisdom, he was scoffed at, ridiculed, and denied,” commodities guru Jim Rogers told Fortune magazine. “And now, of course, people are starting to say, ‘Oh, well, I thought of that.’”
Simmons, chairman of the Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co. International, poured through hundreds of technical documents submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years.
“I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon,” Simmons told Fortune, “and I sat back and thought, ‘Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I’ve just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We’re in big trouble. I’m going to write a book.’ “
Much of the alleged Saudi Arabia subterfuge has to do with a complete lack of transparency with respect to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. After OPEC decided to base its production quotas on reserve figures in the 1980s, several of the cartel’s producers suddenly raised their levels of “proven reserves” by 40% or more.
Back in 1988, for instance, Saudi Arabia raised its proven-reserve figure from 170 billion barrels to about 260 billion barrels. That figure has remained more or less constant since then, despite the fact that billions of barrels of oil have been pumped out of the ground.
“Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve,” Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview in Singapore recently. “It’s astonishing. The figure never goes up and it never goes down. They have produced dozens of millions - billions - of dollars of oil in that period of time.
“Every oil country in the world has declining reserves except Saudi Arabia,” Rogers said. ”And I know that every oil company has declining reserves. So unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly in very accessible areas, the surprise is going to be how high the price stays, and how high it goes.”
Simmons thinks oil prices could hit $300 a barrel - and could possibly even surge as high as $500 a barrel - during the next several years.
“Black Gold” Profit Plays
When it comes to investing, the oil sector poses some very clear risks, especially given the murky near-term outlook. However, there are a number of large-cap integrated oil companies that may offer some truly compelling values at current prices.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are currently trading at multi-year lows, making them exceptionally cheap in both relative and absolute terms. These companies also have strong balance sheets (Exxon is “AAA”- rated and has more cash on its balance sheet than debt), generate strong cash flows, and have traditionally increased their dividends on a regular basis.
Chevron was actually recommended as a “Buy” by Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez in his “Buy, Sell or Hold” column earlier this year.
“Chevron is the kind of company that is capable of continuing to post large profits - propelling its share higher from current levels - even if oil-and-gas prices were to drop from current levels over the next three years,” Marquez said. “That’s because Chevron’s business is well cushioned, since refining, marketing and chemicals margins would expand dramatically if market ’spot’ prices were to decline. Also, the company’s production is poised to expand strongly and Chevron uses some selective hedging that works very well in downside oil markets.”
Offshore drillers, particularly those capable of drilling in the deepest waters, also offer value at current levels. Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), also known as Petrobras, is particularly appealing, as it recently discovered one of the largest offshore oil fields on earth off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Known as Carioca, the field could hold 33 billion barrels of oil and gas, making the world’s largest discovery in at least 32 years.
Fitz-Gerald, the Money Morning investment director, suggests investors look at China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC Ltd. The Hong Kong-based company recently got approval for a $29 billion exploration project in the South China Sea. The company expects to produce 50 million tons of oil equivalent per year from that region during the next 10-20 years. That would equal the production of China’s biggest project, the Daqing Oil Field.
Petrobras and CNOOC are also attractive because, as foreign companies, they will also get a boost from any devaluation in the U.S. dollar.
All of these companies have been hit hard by the combination of commodity-price weakness and credit market turmoil. But these operators do not require peak-cycle commodity prices to generate stellar results and have little or no credit-market exposure.
For a more direct play on oil prices, you might also try an exchange-traded fund (ETF), such as the United States Oil Fund LP (USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Fund (OIL), or the United States Gasoline Fund LP.
[Editor's Note: As the whipsaw trading patterns energy investors have endured this year have shown, the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investment game forever. Uncertainty is now the norm and that new reality alone has created a whole set of new rules that will help determine who profits and who loses. Investors who ignore this "New Reality" will struggle, and will find their financial forays to be frustrating and unrewarding. But investors who embrace this change will not only survive - they will thrive.
How to Bank Real Profits by Bucking Wall Street’s Latest Fashion Trends
Investors who trade actively and are closely in touch with the ebb and flow of opinion on Wall Street have one enormous barrier to good investment performance: They will often be seduced by what’s fashionable – whether it be in terms of sectors, countries or individual stocks.
But in this market, as in all markets, it’s best to look at the unfashionable – sectors that are scorned or ignored by the market and countries whose stock markets have been beaten down by adversity. Of course, it’s difficult to do this if you constantly have an ear to Wall Street. Perhaps that’s why Warren Buffett’s bases his investment business in Omaha, Neb., not New York.
Fashionable investments can do very well in the short term. In 1998-99, you could have made a lot of money in tech stocks. In 2006-07, you could have made lots of money investing in China. If you were given perfect foresight, you could construct a successful investment philosophy around “momentum” sectors, buying whatever is currently “hot” and dumping it before the market turned. For most of us, there’s nothing more boring than an investment that just sits there.
The problem is that none of us have perfect foresight, and what’s worse is that we all have a tendency to believe what limited foresight we do have is better than it really is.
But if investing in fashionable sectors is pretty well guaranteed to give you worse returns than the market, then there must be some other strategy that will give you better returns, on average. After all, for every loser there must be a winner.
And while some of those winners are Wall Street insiders trading on privileged information – the Securities and Exchange Commission can’t catch them all – there is also reason to suppose that a winning investment strategy is to invest in sectors and countries that are actively unfashionable, in which the conventional Wall Street wisdom is to shun them, even on a “bottom-fishing” basis.
One example of this appeared in the banking sector a few weeks ago when Citigroup Inc. shares sold for less than a dollar.
During 2008, there had been innumerable attempts to rally the banking sector’s stock prices, mostly led by the same types of Wall Street operators who had caused the banks’ initial problem. But by February/March 2009, the hot money had stopped trying – either through bankruptcy or exhaustion – and Citigroup’s decline to $1, after several months languishing around the $4 to $5 level, was a pretty good sign that the pros had given up.
At that point, there were two possible routes for the unfashionable investor to take: Invest directly in the stocks that had been beaten down by buying Citigroup or Bank of America Corp; or go in the opposite direction, staying with the unfashionable banking sector but looking for the banks that were best run and had the fewest operating or asset problems.
The first strategy, if blessed with pinpoint timing, would have made the most money in the short run, no question. A buyer of Citigroup at $1 would today be sitting on a 300% profit in about six weeks.
However, that was a risky strategy. Citigroup could have been subjected to a government intervention that wiped out its shareholders. Further it was in no sense “value investing.” Even the bankrupt American International Group Inc. has risen five-fold from its nadir to $1.70, in spite of the fact that the government owns 80%, and would be due to receive no less than $150 billion before AIG shareholders got a penny in the case of a liquidation.
Indeed, investing in either would have been like gambling at a Las Vegas casino – fun when it works, but not if you might need the money.
But at the other end of the spectrum investment in banks such as U.S. Bancorp or BB&T Corp. made a lot of sense. I said as much in my late February review of the top 12 U.S. banks.
Those banks had made money even in the dire fourth quarter of 2008, and looked likely to continue making money going forward. They have powerful franchises in attractive regions of the country, and with short-term rates now much lower than medium term rates their new businesses should be exceptionally profitable. USB has risen 110% from its early March nadir and BBT is up 80%. And both were, and are, investments into which you could reasonably put a decent chunk of money.
Going forward, the banking sector is no longer unfashionable; analysts are waiting eagerly for first quarter figures and the results of the government “stress test” so they can pick winners. It is, however, more than possible that at some point in the future the current recession will once again cast a cloud over the banking sector, making it possible to invest while it is again unfashionable. If not, some other sector will be in the doghouse, and we at Money Morning will try and alert you to that event.
Another example, this time an international one.
In 1999, I was working as a banker in Croatia. NATO was engaged in its Kosovo campaign, dropping bombs on neighboring Serbia and Montenegro (with the occasional stray hitting Croatia, Bulgaria and Macedonia). Needless to say, the tiny Croatian stock market was itself “bombed out” and people were saying that the country was economically doomed.
That was obvious nonsense. Croatia has an exquisite coast and 5,000 islands, and when the neighborhood is free from explosions they attract tourists from all over Europe and beyond. So, I put my modest savings into Croatian shares – the least risky I could find; a medium-sized bank and a food company. Within a year, I had tripled my money.
Opportunities for unfashionable investment occur fairly rarely, but are more common in bleak economic environments like the present. When they occur, they can prove exceptionally rewarding.
But in this market, as in all markets, it’s best to look at the unfashionable – sectors that are scorned or ignored by the market and countries whose stock markets have been beaten down by adversity. Of course, it’s difficult to do this if you constantly have an ear to Wall Street. Perhaps that’s why Warren Buffett’s bases his investment business in Omaha, Neb., not New York.
Fashionable investments can do very well in the short term. In 1998-99, you could have made a lot of money in tech stocks. In 2006-07, you could have made lots of money investing in China. If you were given perfect foresight, you could construct a successful investment philosophy around “momentum” sectors, buying whatever is currently “hot” and dumping it before the market turned. For most of us, there’s nothing more boring than an investment that just sits there.
The problem is that none of us have perfect foresight, and what’s worse is that we all have a tendency to believe what limited foresight we do have is better than it really is.
But if investing in fashionable sectors is pretty well guaranteed to give you worse returns than the market, then there must be some other strategy that will give you better returns, on average. After all, for every loser there must be a winner.
And while some of those winners are Wall Street insiders trading on privileged information – the Securities and Exchange Commission can’t catch them all – there is also reason to suppose that a winning investment strategy is to invest in sectors and countries that are actively unfashionable, in which the conventional Wall Street wisdom is to shun them, even on a “bottom-fishing” basis.
One example of this appeared in the banking sector a few weeks ago when Citigroup Inc. shares sold for less than a dollar.
During 2008, there had been innumerable attempts to rally the banking sector’s stock prices, mostly led by the same types of Wall Street operators who had caused the banks’ initial problem. But by February/March 2009, the hot money had stopped trying – either through bankruptcy or exhaustion – and Citigroup’s decline to $1, after several months languishing around the $4 to $5 level, was a pretty good sign that the pros had given up.
At that point, there were two possible routes for the unfashionable investor to take: Invest directly in the stocks that had been beaten down by buying Citigroup or Bank of America Corp; or go in the opposite direction, staying with the unfashionable banking sector but looking for the banks that were best run and had the fewest operating or asset problems.
The first strategy, if blessed with pinpoint timing, would have made the most money in the short run, no question. A buyer of Citigroup at $1 would today be sitting on a 300% profit in about six weeks.
However, that was a risky strategy. Citigroup could have been subjected to a government intervention that wiped out its shareholders. Further it was in no sense “value investing.” Even the bankrupt American International Group Inc. has risen five-fold from its nadir to $1.70, in spite of the fact that the government owns 80%, and would be due to receive no less than $150 billion before AIG shareholders got a penny in the case of a liquidation.
Indeed, investing in either would have been like gambling at a Las Vegas casino – fun when it works, but not if you might need the money.
But at the other end of the spectrum investment in banks such as U.S. Bancorp or BB&T Corp. made a lot of sense. I said as much in my late February review of the top 12 U.S. banks.
Those banks had made money even in the dire fourth quarter of 2008, and looked likely to continue making money going forward. They have powerful franchises in attractive regions of the country, and with short-term rates now much lower than medium term rates their new businesses should be exceptionally profitable. USB has risen 110% from its early March nadir and BBT is up 80%. And both were, and are, investments into which you could reasonably put a decent chunk of money.
Going forward, the banking sector is no longer unfashionable; analysts are waiting eagerly for first quarter figures and the results of the government “stress test” so they can pick winners. It is, however, more than possible that at some point in the future the current recession will once again cast a cloud over the banking sector, making it possible to invest while it is again unfashionable. If not, some other sector will be in the doghouse, and we at Money Morning will try and alert you to that event.
Another example, this time an international one.
In 1999, I was working as a banker in Croatia. NATO was engaged in its Kosovo campaign, dropping bombs on neighboring Serbia and Montenegro (with the occasional stray hitting Croatia, Bulgaria and Macedonia). Needless to say, the tiny Croatian stock market was itself “bombed out” and people were saying that the country was economically doomed.
That was obvious nonsense. Croatia has an exquisite coast and 5,000 islands, and when the neighborhood is free from explosions they attract tourists from all over Europe and beyond. So, I put my modest savings into Croatian shares – the least risky I could find; a medium-sized bank and a food company. Within a year, I had tripled my money.
Opportunities for unfashionable investment occur fairly rarely, but are more common in bleak economic environments like the present. When they occur, they can prove exceptionally rewarding.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
美元贬值完美路线
对于"未来美元会贬值"表示疑虑的主要有两类意见。一种观点认为，去杠杆把美国的"影子银行"的信用机器彻底摧毁了，随着资产归零，包括经纪自营商、对冲基金、私人股本集团、结构投资工具和渠道、货币市场基金以及非银行抵押贷款机构将遭受灭顶之灾。
1999年克林顿的《金融服务现代化法案》通过后，美国的银行终于可以解除受《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》长达65年的禁闭，堂而皇之地进入市场与投资银行们一争高下了。最近5年中，多数银行表外的规模往往是表内的3-5倍。花旗危机前表内资产7000亿～8000亿美金，而表外的规模或高达3万～4万亿美元。
赚钱的时候，大家都在表外享受泡沫的狂欢，一旦大祸临头，表外的损失是必须回到表内的，于是乎，灾难就从"影子银行"体系传递到了母公司（传统银行体系），就得资产减计，债务的压缩，信贷规模的紧缩，除了还债去杠杆，什么活也干不了。
所以你看到，即便当下联储资产高速扩张了一倍多（从2008年9月的9000亿美金上升至目前的1.9万亿美元），但货币乘数也掉了一半多，所以整体上信用规模并没有扩张，或还在收缩。
我同意，在"影子银行"得到有效清理之前，还会处于紧缩之中，与基础货币发行量互相抵消。未来美国信贷市场即便恢复正常，货币乘数肯定也回不到那个虚妄的繁荣时代的水平。但是我们不能拿现在极端不正常状态的货币乘数说事，现在是传统的金融部门都出现了恐慌，机构都窖藏货币不干活，随着政府兜住毒资产计划的实施，未来应该有一个从极端回复正常的过程。
如此，一旦市场向正常回归，传统的金融机构出来干活，货币乘数反弹，短时间内就可能是滔天洪水。因为货币当局回收流动性的操作远比释放流动性要困难得多。所以说，这种以泡制泡的方式能否成功，未来美元的前景，恶性通胀的前景，会不会是以更大的萧条，来结束这一切以恢复均衡（这时候，美元可能超强势回归，但世界可能已经是满目疮痍），的确令人深忧。
第二种观点认为，"数量宽松"开始在全世界央行蔓延，我们看到，除了美联储以外，英格兰央行、日本央行、瑞士央行纷纷开闸放水，即便是风格最严谨的欧洲央行恐怕也挡不住被一群数量型放松的央行所包围的压力，如果欧元因此再度升值，困境中的欧洲经济将雪上加霜。全球外汇市场的均衡可能是各国货币竞相贬值，在大家都放水的情况下，美元是否就一定贬值呢？
在我看来，有哪国货币当局放水能超过美联储呢？一国货币当局"数量放松"的力度取决于本国主权货币被外部世界所接受的程度，因为这决定了该国本身转嫁风险的能力，如果你滥发货币以后风险转不出去的话，那就是引火烧身。欧洲大陆国家，如德国法国，敢置国内的通胀风险于不顾，去采用过激的货币手段吗？
坦率地讲，只要美联储买公债，某种程度上讲，这就是毒品，沾上了就可能摆脱不掉，不论成败只能一条道走到黑。有一点是肯定的，处于太空中的美国债务率只有通过高通胀才能最终真正被降下来，美国人所有的政策是围绕它的债务在做文章，当美元真正贬下去了造成通货膨胀的时候，吸走的是外部世界的财富，因为美国是最大的债务人。当外部世界的储蓄率和财富掉下来的时候，事实上美国的负债率也就跟从太空安全着陆，美元资产获得了支撑，通货膨胀也就止步了，一个完美的自我平衡机制。
希望在这个通胀过程的实现中，美国人能抓紧时间找到带领世界经济进入下个长周期增长的"载体"（像上世纪80年代信息革命一样），用生产效率提速来填充日益膨胀的货币，否则世界将掉入滞胀的泥潭。这也算是美联储"数量放松"的功德了。
1999年克林顿的《金融服务现代化法案》通过后，美国的银行终于可以解除受《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》长达65年的禁闭，堂而皇之地进入市场与投资银行们一争高下了。最近5年中，多数银行表外的规模往往是表内的3-5倍。花旗危机前表内资产7000亿～8000亿美金，而表外的规模或高达3万～4万亿美元。
赚钱的时候，大家都在表外享受泡沫的狂欢，一旦大祸临头，表外的损失是必须回到表内的，于是乎，灾难就从"影子银行"体系传递到了母公司（传统银行体系），就得资产减计，债务的压缩，信贷规模的紧缩，除了还债去杠杆，什么活也干不了。
所以你看到，即便当下联储资产高速扩张了一倍多（从2008年9月的9000亿美金上升至目前的1.9万亿美元），但货币乘数也掉了一半多，所以整体上信用规模并没有扩张，或还在收缩。
我同意，在"影子银行"得到有效清理之前，还会处于紧缩之中，与基础货币发行量互相抵消。未来美国信贷市场即便恢复正常，货币乘数肯定也回不到那个虚妄的繁荣时代的水平。但是我们不能拿现在极端不正常状态的货币乘数说事，现在是传统的金融部门都出现了恐慌，机构都窖藏货币不干活，随着政府兜住毒资产计划的实施，未来应该有一个从极端回复正常的过程。
如此，一旦市场向正常回归，传统的金融机构出来干活，货币乘数反弹，短时间内就可能是滔天洪水。因为货币当局回收流动性的操作远比释放流动性要困难得多。所以说，这种以泡制泡的方式能否成功，未来美元的前景，恶性通胀的前景，会不会是以更大的萧条，来结束这一切以恢复均衡（这时候，美元可能超强势回归，但世界可能已经是满目疮痍），的确令人深忧。
第二种观点认为，"数量宽松"开始在全世界央行蔓延，我们看到，除了美联储以外，英格兰央行、日本央行、瑞士央行纷纷开闸放水，即便是风格最严谨的欧洲央行恐怕也挡不住被一群数量型放松的央行所包围的压力，如果欧元因此再度升值，困境中的欧洲经济将雪上加霜。全球外汇市场的均衡可能是各国货币竞相贬值，在大家都放水的情况下，美元是否就一定贬值呢？
在我看来，有哪国货币当局放水能超过美联储呢？一国货币当局"数量放松"的力度取决于本国主权货币被外部世界所接受的程度，因为这决定了该国本身转嫁风险的能力，如果你滥发货币以后风险转不出去的话，那就是引火烧身。欧洲大陆国家，如德国法国，敢置国内的通胀风险于不顾，去采用过激的货币手段吗？
坦率地讲，只要美联储买公债，某种程度上讲，这就是毒品，沾上了就可能摆脱不掉，不论成败只能一条道走到黑。有一点是肯定的，处于太空中的美国债务率只有通过高通胀才能最终真正被降下来，美国人所有的政策是围绕它的债务在做文章，当美元真正贬下去了造成通货膨胀的时候，吸走的是外部世界的财富，因为美国是最大的债务人。当外部世界的储蓄率和财富掉下来的时候，事实上美国的负债率也就跟从太空安全着陆，美元资产获得了支撑，通货膨胀也就止步了，一个完美的自我平衡机制。
希望在这个通胀过程的实现中，美国人能抓紧时间找到带领世界经济进入下个长周期增长的"载体"（像上世纪80年代信息革命一样），用生产效率提速来填充日益膨胀的货币，否则世界将掉入滞胀的泥潭。这也算是美联储"数量放松"的功德了。
3到5年后不良贷款可能全面爆发
我们也许要转变观念,全球史无前例的主要央行联合发钞、联合托市的行为,扭曲了目前的资本市场价格,让大家沉醉于资产品价格短期反弹带动经济复苏的幻觉之中。而后,我们可能痛苦地从幻觉中醒来,发现必须扭转另一个观念,即违背市场有效性的价格上升,最终会让我们付出更为惨痛的代价。
金融危机是典型的例子。由于全球货币毫无节制的泛滥,一些经典理论如有效市场和股市收益好于债券等受到挑战,资本市场异常现象层出不穷:1971年至2002年美联储利率与按揭利率步调一致,到2002年至2005年期间却出现偏差,美联储从2004年开始加息以来,美国国债长期利率水平出人意料地长期低于短期利率。这是全球对于美国长期债需求过多导致,如此反常让资产证券化获得了沃土,出现高增长、低通胀的喜人局面,但最后一切归于尘土。
目前市场处于又一个异常阶段,短期的扩张政策带动资本市场反弹——上证综指今年一季度涨幅超过30%,H股略受小惠,上涨3%。美国股市从3月6日以来进入反弹区间,标普从3月6日的666.8上涨到3月26日的832.8,同期道指从6469.95反弹到8776点,黄金与美元同步涨跌更是醒目。避险资金进入任何可以避险的市场以求一逞。所有的资金都怀着矛盾的心态火中取栗,他们既不愿意放弃反弹的机会,又无法对需求不足视而不见。
这是经济滞胀出现之前令人欣快的短暂复苏,但最终我们会发现,增长的基础必须依靠企业效率的提高,市场会在短期的提振之后陷入长期的底部盘整状态。
我国股市业已被认为是稳定经济信心的基石,备受呵护,证监会两次辟谣新股IPO上市,创业板上市分流的资金被限制在最小范围之内,300家公司所吸纳的资金不及一个大盘股的说法四处流传。最让人振奋的当属3月份银行信贷增量可能超过2月份,突破万亿以上的规模。
刺激政策造成了不同的产品价格效应,由银行信贷和政策支撑的资本市场反弹市还在持续,国储收购的铜、铝等期货价格震荡上行,钢铁在短期上涨后跌回低位;为帮助大型炼化企业消化过剩产能,政府有关部门在提高油品价格后,又免征17%的出口增值税,帮助企业渡过危机。里昂证券发布的中国采购经理人指数环比下降,显示民企状况依然不佳。
两则新闻让人对于信贷扩张后的不良贷款率产生担忧。
3月末,上海液晶龙头企业上海广电集团因资不抵债被上海仪电控股集团公司托管,直接牵涉沪上至少8家银行的大额贷款安全。上广电和大小子公司的银行总贷款量已超过100亿元,两笔银团贷款超过50亿元,追逐大项目、国资项目的银行业几乎被一网打尽。技术更新跟不上、成本失控、国企效率低下、子公司关联担保等企业痼疾一一浮出水面。银行现在惟一的指望就是通过地方政府的托管、重组来盘活资产。
另一则新闻则是深圳国资委被指“封杀”兴业银行。2005年,当时兴业广州分行将深圳机场总经理崔绍先以骗贷罪告上广东省高院,深圳机场的主管部门深圳国资委据称曾对兴业银行深圳分行下了隐形封杀令,致使后者流失20余亿元国企存款。2009年3月初,深圳机场的上述官司败诉后,又使兴业流失30余亿元国企存款。不过,深圳国资委对此回应称,如有转出存款完全是企业行为,不存在所谓的“封杀令”。
如果说第一个案例印证了政府主导、支持的项目未必可靠,第二个案例则印证了在中国的信贷市场,银行面对国资处于相对弱势地位。行政主导的国有项目贷款、银行对政府信用的追逐,以及国资与银行之间剪不断、理还乱的维权关系,导致金融系统的隐性风险居高不下。银行内部人员也坦承,目前信贷结构极不合理,却无力改变。
银监会副主席蒋定之曾表示,我国GDP每降低1个百分点,银行不良贷款率将上升0.4个百分点。我国2008年GDP官方数据为9%,今年力保8%,截至2008年12月末,我国境内商业银行（包括国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行和外资银行）不良贷款余额5681.8亿元。目前拜信贷扩张所赐,银行坏账率下降,等到三五年后贷款质量暴露之时呢？
相信到那时只有靠资产证券化来解决了,不良资产管理公司又有了大笔的生意。
金融危机是典型的例子。由于全球货币毫无节制的泛滥,一些经典理论如有效市场和股市收益好于债券等受到挑战,资本市场异常现象层出不穷:1971年至2002年美联储利率与按揭利率步调一致,到2002年至2005年期间却出现偏差,美联储从2004年开始加息以来,美国国债长期利率水平出人意料地长期低于短期利率。这是全球对于美国长期债需求过多导致,如此反常让资产证券化获得了沃土,出现高增长、低通胀的喜人局面,但最后一切归于尘土。
目前市场处于又一个异常阶段,短期的扩张政策带动资本市场反弹——上证综指今年一季度涨幅超过30%,H股略受小惠,上涨3%。美国股市从3月6日以来进入反弹区间,标普从3月6日的666.8上涨到3月26日的832.8,同期道指从6469.95反弹到8776点,黄金与美元同步涨跌更是醒目。避险资金进入任何可以避险的市场以求一逞。所有的资金都怀着矛盾的心态火中取栗,他们既不愿意放弃反弹的机会,又无法对需求不足视而不见。
这是经济滞胀出现之前令人欣快的短暂复苏,但最终我们会发现,增长的基础必须依靠企业效率的提高,市场会在短期的提振之后陷入长期的底部盘整状态。
我国股市业已被认为是稳定经济信心的基石,备受呵护,证监会两次辟谣新股IPO上市,创业板上市分流的资金被限制在最小范围之内,300家公司所吸纳的资金不及一个大盘股的说法四处流传。最让人振奋的当属3月份银行信贷增量可能超过2月份,突破万亿以上的规模。
刺激政策造成了不同的产品价格效应,由银行信贷和政策支撑的资本市场反弹市还在持续,国储收购的铜、铝等期货价格震荡上行,钢铁在短期上涨后跌回低位;为帮助大型炼化企业消化过剩产能,政府有关部门在提高油品价格后,又免征17%的出口增值税,帮助企业渡过危机。里昂证券发布的中国采购经理人指数环比下降,显示民企状况依然不佳。
两则新闻让人对于信贷扩张后的不良贷款率产生担忧。
3月末,上海液晶龙头企业上海广电集团因资不抵债被上海仪电控股集团公司托管,直接牵涉沪上至少8家银行的大额贷款安全。上广电和大小子公司的银行总贷款量已超过100亿元,两笔银团贷款超过50亿元,追逐大项目、国资项目的银行业几乎被一网打尽。技术更新跟不上、成本失控、国企效率低下、子公司关联担保等企业痼疾一一浮出水面。银行现在惟一的指望就是通过地方政府的托管、重组来盘活资产。
另一则新闻则是深圳国资委被指“封杀”兴业银行。2005年,当时兴业广州分行将深圳机场总经理崔绍先以骗贷罪告上广东省高院,深圳机场的主管部门深圳国资委据称曾对兴业银行深圳分行下了隐形封杀令,致使后者流失20余亿元国企存款。2009年3月初,深圳机场的上述官司败诉后,又使兴业流失30余亿元国企存款。不过,深圳国资委对此回应称,如有转出存款完全是企业行为,不存在所谓的“封杀令”。
如果说第一个案例印证了政府主导、支持的项目未必可靠,第二个案例则印证了在中国的信贷市场,银行面对国资处于相对弱势地位。行政主导的国有项目贷款、银行对政府信用的追逐,以及国资与银行之间剪不断、理还乱的维权关系,导致金融系统的隐性风险居高不下。银行内部人员也坦承,目前信贷结构极不合理,却无力改变。
银监会副主席蒋定之曾表示,我国GDP每降低1个百分点,银行不良贷款率将上升0.4个百分点。我国2008年GDP官方数据为9%,今年力保8%,截至2008年12月末,我国境内商业银行（包括国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行和外资银行）不良贷款余额5681.8亿元。目前拜信贷扩张所赐,银行坏账率下降,等到三五年后贷款质量暴露之时呢？
相信到那时只有靠资产证券化来解决了,不良资产管理公司又有了大笔的生意。
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