股票就是公司股份的证书。
买股票就是买公司的股份。
买公司的股份就是与人合股做生意。
在参股之前，你必须对有关公司的生意，有深入的认识。
这样你才能判断，有关公司有没有前途，然后你才能作出要不要参股的正确决定。
这就是投资。
如果你对有关公司一无所知就参股，你是在投机，不是投资。
投机形同赌博。
十赌九输。
故在参股之前，要尽可能了解有关公司的生意。
了解越深，胜算越高。
巴菲特说：“你的判断正确，因为你所根据的事实是正确的。”
又说：“你赚钱的多少，跟你对有关公司的认识程度成正比。”
故了解有关公司的生意，是投资的第一步。
要了解生意必须懂得计算。
计算必然涉及数字。
所以，要投资，一交要喜欢数字。
许多人喜欢买股票，却讨厌数字，看到数字就头痛。
讨厌数字的人不适合投资股票。
因为讨厌数字的人，必然讨厌计算。
没有经过计算，不是根据数据作出判断，失误高达十之八九。
许多有关奋斗成功的故事，读起来令人感动，却没有参考价值，因为没有提供数字，没有数字就无法达致是否值得投资的结论。
所以，投资要成功，必须要喜欢数字，喜欢计算。
不喜欢数字的人最好不要学习投资。
许多人不喜欢数字，因为数字枯燥。
那是很大的错误。
因为每一个数字的背后都有一个故事。
每一个故事都是有趣的、是活鲜的。
因为数字告诉我们生意的起落。
而生意的起落，关系到公司上下数百人、数千人，甚至数万人的生活。
买进股票之后，你就是公司的股东。
身为公司的股东，你最关心的是公司赚不赚钱。
损益表看盈亏
要知道公司赚不赚钱，要看损益表(PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT)(有时叫营收账INCOME STATEMENTS)。
而损益表的第一行，必然是营业量(REVENUE)，通常是个大数目。
通常我们生活中所涉及的数目，都是一令吉、一百令吉、一千令吉、一万令吉，都是小数目，大的数目不常用，而营业量，动辄是千万、一亿、十亿，甚至百亿，难怪一般人很难了解。
不了解就不爱。
请看这个数字：
34,044,712，000
这是森那美到今年6月为止财务年的营业量，你能读出来吗？
正确的答案是340亿4471万2000吉。
这是该公司一年的营业量，是由该公司10万员工拼搏了1年所取得的总营收。
请你闭上眼睛想像一下：10万人在不同的岗位上，每天从事不同的活动，工作了一整年，才取得了这340亿的营业量。
这10万人每个月都有一个家庭，每个家庭都有几个家人。
每一个家人都有一个故事。
所以这家公司关系到数10万人的生活。
这不是一幅幅活生生的生活图景吗？
而这生活图景，就反映在一个总数字上：340亿令吉。
谁说数字是冰冷的、枯燥的？
你认为数字枯燥、冰冷，是因为你只看表面，没有看到数字背后的故事。
学习投资先看数字
了解了这些故事，你才会理解到：数字是有血有肉的。
有血有肉，才有生命。
有生命，才可爱。
所以，数字是可爱的。
数字一点也不会令人讨厌。
每一个学习投资的人都要说：“数字数字我爱你！”
Saturday, December 13, 2008
美联储已弹尽粮绝
迄今为止，美国的房屋价值已缩水了约4万亿美元，股市市值缩水9万亿美元，几乎毋庸置疑，我们正在见证经典的债务-通货紧缩循环，其特点是价格下跌、信贷市场冻结和资产价值暴跌。
如果想要理解其中的机制，不妨重温欧文•费雪(Irving Fisher)在1933年所作评论：在造成泡沫破裂的因素中，过度投资和过度投机往往是重要原因，但如果这些活动不是依赖借债进行的，其后果远不会那么严重。
不断加大的物价下跌风险对现代经济学界，乃至现代央行所信奉的一条金科玉律提出了挑战。他们相信，在不兑现纸币体系下是不可能形成通货紧缩的。然而，美国10月份的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)较上月下跌了0.1%，是1982年12月以来首次出现这种状况。
这条金科玉律源自单纯以货币主义来解释“大萧条”的理论。这一理论由米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)推广，并在此后被传授给一代代经济学学子。这套理论认为，如果美国联邦储备委员会在发行货币上能更积极，大萧条本可以避免。然而，从日本在上世纪90年代的经历－－一直持续的通货紧缩对将近零水平的利率反应迟钝－－可以看出，要想通过通胀摆脱债务泡沫破裂困境并非易事。
在美国，美联储只能控制货币的供应，无法控制货币的周转率。过去18个月来证券化业务的急剧萎缩反映出，随着金融工程的方向逆转，货币的周转正在崩溃。
诚然，这种状况有朝一日是会改变。但眼下，非机构住房抵押贷款担保证券(MBS)的发行规模较上年同期锐减98%，过去4个月的月均发行额只有8.2亿美元，较2006年6月的1,360亿美元最高点大幅回落。自7月份以来，就再也没有发行过新的MBS。证券化业务的崩溃极大地推动了通缩。
还有，在贝南克(Ben Bernanke)的领导下，为了应对信贷收缩，美联储的资产在以疯狂的速度膨胀。商业银行也在疯狂屯积储备资金。其结果是，各联储银行的总资产由9月初的1.28万亿美元增至11月19日的2.19万亿。同样，美国存款机构的储备资金在过去2个月猛增将近13倍。从9月初的470亿美元增加至11月19日当周的6,530亿美元。
储备金过度增长也折射出银行惜贷的现状。这意味着银行只想为现有的头寸提供资金，例如他们已经允诺的信贷额度。
贝南克及其他同样信奉货币主义的人将日本在泡沫破裂后陷入通缩归咎于日本央行(Bank of Japan)的政策失误。但他们最终会发现货币机制并非像其想象的那样有效。对那些相信积极的财政政策才是应对通缩最佳办法的凯恩斯主义者来说也是如此。尽管公共工程支出能够起到缓冲作用并提供就业，但罗斯福新政没能结束大萧条也是事实。
没有简单的政策良药能医治眼下的信贷灾难和还在加剧的金融恐慌，只要政治人物和央行官员仍决心不让金融机构倒闭，并阻止市场纠正其过错，这些问题就不能解决。这正是笔者同情财长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)的原因，即便是没有其他人看上去同情他。这次信贷周期的证券化性质，加上那些定量分析怪才凭空发明的证券产品中蕴含的杠杆程度达到了噩梦般的水平，都意味着这是一个可怕的难题。
几乎人人都在指责鲍尔森弃雷曼兄弟而不顾的决定。但这项决定应该赢得喝彩，因为它加快了去杠杆化的进程，虽然这个进程会导致通货紧缩，但这一天迟早会来。
日本的教训仍具有重要意义。因为西方国家为防止市场过度自我约束而采取的措施，将会像日本那样在无意间产生长期的负面后果。在日本，恶果之一是让大批不具竞争力的企业在苟延残喘，导致生产力更强的竞争者的利润率下滑。恶果之二是长期的通缩症，导致日圆利率维持在荒唐的低水平，进而损害储户的利益。
此外，从最近美联储对贷款部门负责人的调查中可以发现美国信贷危机还在加剧的有力证据。称在过去3个月收紧了面向大中型企业的工商业贷款标准的国内银行数量净比为83.6%，表示过去3个月发放消费者分期贷款意愿降低的银行数量净比为47%。
另一方面，消费者也变得不愿意举债。48%回答调查的人（净比）称过去一个季度各类消费者贷款的需求减少了，7月份这一比例为30%。这预示着美国也将可能出现日本那样有力使不出的局面，即银行有钱可贷，但却不能强迫老百姓贷款。
接下来会怎样？随着联邦基金利率降至0.5%甚至更低水平，投资者们很快就可以再次听到贝南克在2002及2003年做过的有关应对通胀减弱的演讲。他在相关的演讲中概括了一旦短期利率接近零水平，政策会如何随着变化。这种环境下的关键着眼点将是压低长期利率。长期利率决定抵押贷款利率和其他债务工具的利率。这很有可能会牵扯到美联储购买长期美国国债的实际操作。
如果美国经济仍不见起色，通胀压力继续减弱（这很有可能），看起来有理由断定贝南克领导下的美联储会延续这套政策。这类行动不会解决问题，只会由于债上加债使问题更加复杂。
从这方面来说，随着1971年尼克松总统将美元与黄金脱钩后确立的美元本位最终解体，西方国家眼下的危机将最终使机械式货币主义失去信誉，与它一道失去信誉的还有整个不可兑换纸币体系。
而这场巨变的催化剂将是外国债权人舍弃美元并吸纳黄金。这种做法将进而让全世界认识到需要建立一个约束力比现在强得多的国际金融体系，而曾经被大部分现代央行大员们嘲笑为“野蛮的残余”的黄金或许将在其中扮演不小的角色。
如果想要理解其中的机制，不妨重温欧文•费雪(Irving Fisher)在1933年所作评论：在造成泡沫破裂的因素中，过度投资和过度投机往往是重要原因，但如果这些活动不是依赖借债进行的，其后果远不会那么严重。
不断加大的物价下跌风险对现代经济学界，乃至现代央行所信奉的一条金科玉律提出了挑战。他们相信，在不兑现纸币体系下是不可能形成通货紧缩的。然而，美国10月份的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)较上月下跌了0.1%，是1982年12月以来首次出现这种状况。
这条金科玉律源自单纯以货币主义来解释“大萧条”的理论。这一理论由米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)推广，并在此后被传授给一代代经济学学子。这套理论认为，如果美国联邦储备委员会在发行货币上能更积极，大萧条本可以避免。然而，从日本在上世纪90年代的经历－－一直持续的通货紧缩对将近零水平的利率反应迟钝－－可以看出，要想通过通胀摆脱债务泡沫破裂困境并非易事。
在美国，美联储只能控制货币的供应，无法控制货币的周转率。过去18个月来证券化业务的急剧萎缩反映出，随着金融工程的方向逆转，货币的周转正在崩溃。
诚然，这种状况有朝一日是会改变。但眼下，非机构住房抵押贷款担保证券(MBS)的发行规模较上年同期锐减98%，过去4个月的月均发行额只有8.2亿美元，较2006年6月的1,360亿美元最高点大幅回落。自7月份以来，就再也没有发行过新的MBS。证券化业务的崩溃极大地推动了通缩。
还有，在贝南克(Ben Bernanke)的领导下，为了应对信贷收缩，美联储的资产在以疯狂的速度膨胀。商业银行也在疯狂屯积储备资金。其结果是，各联储银行的总资产由9月初的1.28万亿美元增至11月19日的2.19万亿。同样，美国存款机构的储备资金在过去2个月猛增将近13倍。从9月初的470亿美元增加至11月19日当周的6,530亿美元。
储备金过度增长也折射出银行惜贷的现状。这意味着银行只想为现有的头寸提供资金，例如他们已经允诺的信贷额度。
贝南克及其他同样信奉货币主义的人将日本在泡沫破裂后陷入通缩归咎于日本央行(Bank of Japan)的政策失误。但他们最终会发现货币机制并非像其想象的那样有效。对那些相信积极的财政政策才是应对通缩最佳办法的凯恩斯主义者来说也是如此。尽管公共工程支出能够起到缓冲作用并提供就业，但罗斯福新政没能结束大萧条也是事实。
没有简单的政策良药能医治眼下的信贷灾难和还在加剧的金融恐慌，只要政治人物和央行官员仍决心不让金融机构倒闭，并阻止市场纠正其过错，这些问题就不能解决。这正是笔者同情财长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)的原因，即便是没有其他人看上去同情他。这次信贷周期的证券化性质，加上那些定量分析怪才凭空发明的证券产品中蕴含的杠杆程度达到了噩梦般的水平，都意味着这是一个可怕的难题。
几乎人人都在指责鲍尔森弃雷曼兄弟而不顾的决定。但这项决定应该赢得喝彩，因为它加快了去杠杆化的进程，虽然这个进程会导致通货紧缩，但这一天迟早会来。
日本的教训仍具有重要意义。因为西方国家为防止市场过度自我约束而采取的措施，将会像日本那样在无意间产生长期的负面后果。在日本，恶果之一是让大批不具竞争力的企业在苟延残喘，导致生产力更强的竞争者的利润率下滑。恶果之二是长期的通缩症，导致日圆利率维持在荒唐的低水平，进而损害储户的利益。
此外，从最近美联储对贷款部门负责人的调查中可以发现美国信贷危机还在加剧的有力证据。称在过去3个月收紧了面向大中型企业的工商业贷款标准的国内银行数量净比为83.6%，表示过去3个月发放消费者分期贷款意愿降低的银行数量净比为47%。
另一方面，消费者也变得不愿意举债。48%回答调查的人（净比）称过去一个季度各类消费者贷款的需求减少了，7月份这一比例为30%。这预示着美国也将可能出现日本那样有力使不出的局面，即银行有钱可贷，但却不能强迫老百姓贷款。
接下来会怎样？随着联邦基金利率降至0.5%甚至更低水平，投资者们很快就可以再次听到贝南克在2002及2003年做过的有关应对通胀减弱的演讲。他在相关的演讲中概括了一旦短期利率接近零水平，政策会如何随着变化。这种环境下的关键着眼点将是压低长期利率。长期利率决定抵押贷款利率和其他债务工具的利率。这很有可能会牵扯到美联储购买长期美国国债的实际操作。
如果美国经济仍不见起色，通胀压力继续减弱（这很有可能），看起来有理由断定贝南克领导下的美联储会延续这套政策。这类行动不会解决问题，只会由于债上加债使问题更加复杂。
从这方面来说，随着1971年尼克松总统将美元与黄金脱钩后确立的美元本位最终解体，西方国家眼下的危机将最终使机械式货币主义失去信誉，与它一道失去信誉的还有整个不可兑换纸币体系。
而这场巨变的催化剂将是外国债权人舍弃美元并吸纳黄金。这种做法将进而让全世界认识到需要建立一个约束力比现在强得多的国际金融体系，而曾经被大部分现代央行大员们嘲笑为“野蛮的残余”的黄金或许将在其中扮演不小的角色。
Property vs Equity as an Investment
Rationale
I happen to have chat with my former colleague on the investment merits of equity versus property, in the context of passive income as primary concern and capital returns being secondary. Under this context, an investment must be one that provides a stable cash flow, either from monthly rentals or dividend payouts.
Rents vs Dividend
At first glance, property provides stable rental returns, usually in substantial monthly figures that can supplement or even substitute active incomes from work. Monthly rental figures in the magnitude of $3,000 to $5,000 are reasonable for renting out entire 3-room condominium units in reasonably attractive locations, close to basic amenities like MRT station, food centres etc.
On the other hand, dividend from equities are usually paid out once a year and are far less stable than rents. The amount are usually meagre and are regarded more as extra annual bonus than monthly income supplements.
Leveraged vs Unleveraged Portfolio
But on closer look, the significant difference in payout can be attributed to leverage. To obtain the rental figures listed above, a typical condominium would have cost anything from $700,000 to above $1,000,000. A typical well-to-do middle income household that can afford to purchase a second property would typically have to draw down a housing loan ranging from 80 to 90%. Few from this group will be expected to 'cash and carry' their property.
In contrast, few sensible people who invest in stocks with objective of getting stable dividend returns would take up any loan to finance their purchase. If the typical well-to-do middle income household above who can afford to pay a 20% down payment or $200,000 on a $1,000,000 property, instead use the down payment to for share purchase, it would have earned them only $14,000 in dividend annually or $1167, assuming a 7% dividend yield (a respectable figure in 'normal' times). This is way below the $3,000 to $5,000 for rents above. The difference attributed to leverage can hence be seen quite clearly.
What if they are willing to take up a $800,000 loan to buy shares? Combined with their original $200,000, there annual dividend income would have been $70,000 or $5833 monthly, a equally respectable figure. But in both scenarios, I have not taken into account the cost of borrowing. Since equity loan are usually unsecured and the cost of borrowing will be much higher than a comparable housing loan.
Fall out from current financial crisis
Every crisis offers new opportunities. The current credit crisis is no different. Property prices and rents have started falling and could plunge further given weaker demand and greater supply in the years ahead as more new property projects are ready.
If falling property prices offers opportunities, plunging equity prices offers even greater opportunities, though the risk should be higher (risk must commensurate higher returns). Once built, the condominium should remain there but there is no guarantee the company still exist to honour the claim by the shareholder.
I extract out 7 relatively high and stable dividend play equities from SGX and summarise them in the following table:
The 7 are well represented by 3 shipping trusts, 2 REITs and 2 food industry related business. The stability in yield arises by nature of the business, e.g. Singapore Airport Terminal Services and Pacific Andes, or by long term contracts e.g. The shipping trusts and REITS.
Taken together, these 7 offers an averaged yield of about 26%. Reusing the example of the middle income household above, a $200,000 investment would give $52,000 annually or $4,333 monthly, without leverage!
But the fact these equities offers such high yields is due to the underlying risk. Other then Singapore Airport Terminal Services, the other 6 businesses are highly leveraged and there is no certainty all will survive the current credit storm. Even if they could, there is a high chance dividend could be cut due to lower income and hence reduce the yield significantly.
Conclusion
Given the current credit storm, if I have the funds to purchase a private property, I would rather threw them into equity. The chance that all 7 high yield stocks above turn into useless scrap paper ALTOGETHER is actually quite low.
I happen to have chat with my former colleague on the investment merits of equity versus property, in the context of passive income as primary concern and capital returns being secondary. Under this context, an investment must be one that provides a stable cash flow, either from monthly rentals or dividend payouts.
Rents vs Dividend
At first glance, property provides stable rental returns, usually in substantial monthly figures that can supplement or even substitute active incomes from work. Monthly rental figures in the magnitude of $3,000 to $5,000 are reasonable for renting out entire 3-room condominium units in reasonably attractive locations, close to basic amenities like MRT station, food centres etc.
On the other hand, dividend from equities are usually paid out once a year and are far less stable than rents. The amount are usually meagre and are regarded more as extra annual bonus than monthly income supplements.
Leveraged vs Unleveraged Portfolio
But on closer look, the significant difference in payout can be attributed to leverage. To obtain the rental figures listed above, a typical condominium would have cost anything from $700,000 to above $1,000,000. A typical well-to-do middle income household that can afford to purchase a second property would typically have to draw down a housing loan ranging from 80 to 90%. Few from this group will be expected to 'cash and carry' their property.
In contrast, few sensible people who invest in stocks with objective of getting stable dividend returns would take up any loan to finance their purchase. If the typical well-to-do middle income household above who can afford to pay a 20% down payment or $200,000 on a $1,000,000 property, instead use the down payment to for share purchase, it would have earned them only $14,000 in dividend annually or $1167, assuming a 7% dividend yield (a respectable figure in 'normal' times). This is way below the $3,000 to $5,000 for rents above. The difference attributed to leverage can hence be seen quite clearly.
What if they are willing to take up a $800,000 loan to buy shares? Combined with their original $200,000, there annual dividend income would have been $70,000 or $5833 monthly, a equally respectable figure. But in both scenarios, I have not taken into account the cost of borrowing. Since equity loan are usually unsecured and the cost of borrowing will be much higher than a comparable housing loan.
Fall out from current financial crisis
Every crisis offers new opportunities. The current credit crisis is no different. Property prices and rents have started falling and could plunge further given weaker demand and greater supply in the years ahead as more new property projects are ready.
If falling property prices offers opportunities, plunging equity prices offers even greater opportunities, though the risk should be higher (risk must commensurate higher returns). Once built, the condominium should remain there but there is no guarantee the company still exist to honour the claim by the shareholder.
I extract out 7 relatively high and stable dividend play equities from SGX and summarise them in the following table:
The 7 are well represented by 3 shipping trusts, 2 REITs and 2 food industry related business. The stability in yield arises by nature of the business, e.g. Singapore Airport Terminal Services and Pacific Andes, or by long term contracts e.g. The shipping trusts and REITS.
Taken together, these 7 offers an averaged yield of about 26%. Reusing the example of the middle income household above, a $200,000 investment would give $52,000 annually or $4,333 monthly, without leverage!
But the fact these equities offers such high yields is due to the underlying risk. Other then Singapore Airport Terminal Services, the other 6 businesses are highly leveraged and there is no certainty all will survive the current credit storm. Even if they could, there is a high chance dividend could be cut due to lower income and hence reduce the yield significantly.
Conclusion
Given the current credit storm, if I have the funds to purchase a private property, I would rather threw them into equity. The chance that all 7 high yield stocks above turn into useless scrap paper ALTOGETHER is actually quite low.
Friday, December 12, 2008
“叫一代人背负债务” 德财长批评英国经济政策
德国财政部长斯坦布鲁克批评一些国家仓促地以惊人的速度采取经济拯救措施。他认为，经济衰退是无可避免的，各国无需竞相推出数额庞大的经济振兴计划。
斯坦布鲁克在美国《新闻周刊》的访谈中说：“各国在压力下仓促定下的计划根本经不起经济测验，这些计划叫人惊讶与难受。”
斯坦布鲁克的访谈内容10日开始登载在《新闻周刊》的网站中。他“点名”批评英国的经济政策，认为评英国首相布朗改而采取的经济政策会叫一代人背负债务。
他指出：“英国从积极的财政政策转向发放大量贷款资助刺激方案，是粗糙的凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）；这样的转变令人震惊。”凯恩斯主义是依据英国经济学家凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的理论创立的，重点是通过政府开支和低利率在经济衰退时刺激需求。
德国政府曾经指出，不断调高数额的经济振兴政策未必能帮助每一个国家摆脱经济危机。
斯坦布鲁克说：“在布鲁塞尔的总部和一些城市的立场是：‘我们现在着重于制定大规模的开支计划，但我们不理会这些计划的实质效果是甚么。既然数额如此庞大，那么，让德国也来付款吧，因为，他们负担得起。’”
英国、法国和欧洲委员会的代表8日在伦敦商讨了对2000亿欧元的欧洲联盟振兴方案的共同立场，德国并没有受邀参与磋商。欧盟国家领导人11日和12日还会在布鲁塞尔开会，讨论振兴方案。
对于德国财政部长的批评，英国首相布朗认为那是“德国内部政治”的结果。他指德国也在大幅资助经济，并且执行与英国类似的政策。
布朗接受伦敦广播公司访问时说：“我不是很想介入德国内部政治之中，他们是一个联盟政府，有好些小政党。”
布朗强调，在扶持银行和刺激金融体系方面，“几乎每一个国家都在做我们正在做的事”。
斯坦布鲁克在美国《新闻周刊》的访谈中说：“各国在压力下仓促定下的计划根本经不起经济测验，这些计划叫人惊讶与难受。”
斯坦布鲁克的访谈内容10日开始登载在《新闻周刊》的网站中。他“点名”批评英国的经济政策，认为评英国首相布朗改而采取的经济政策会叫一代人背负债务。
他指出：“英国从积极的财政政策转向发放大量贷款资助刺激方案，是粗糙的凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）；这样的转变令人震惊。”凯恩斯主义是依据英国经济学家凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的理论创立的，重点是通过政府开支和低利率在经济衰退时刺激需求。
德国政府曾经指出，不断调高数额的经济振兴政策未必能帮助每一个国家摆脱经济危机。
斯坦布鲁克说：“在布鲁塞尔的总部和一些城市的立场是：‘我们现在着重于制定大规模的开支计划，但我们不理会这些计划的实质效果是甚么。既然数额如此庞大，那么，让德国也来付款吧，因为，他们负担得起。’”
英国、法国和欧洲委员会的代表8日在伦敦商讨了对2000亿欧元的欧洲联盟振兴方案的共同立场，德国并没有受邀参与磋商。欧盟国家领导人11日和12日还会在布鲁塞尔开会，讨论振兴方案。
对于德国财政部长的批评，英国首相布朗认为那是“德国内部政治”的结果。他指德国也在大幅资助经济，并且执行与英国类似的政策。
布朗接受伦敦广播公司访问时说：“我不是很想介入德国内部政治之中，他们是一个联盟政府，有好些小政党。”
布朗强调，在扶持银行和刺激金融体系方面，“几乎每一个国家都在做我们正在做的事”。
罗杰斯等8大名嘴：衰退150年少见 道指将见4000
美国已正式宣布进入衰退。2009年美国经济的走向如何？新任总统奥巴马如何带领美国走出衰退的泥淖？美国8位有影响的经济学家和业内人士的看法并不乐观。他们对经济大势的预测更是让人心惊肉跳，包括道琼斯指数下探 4000点，出现粮食和商品短缺，国库券的泡沫化等等。
美国“财富”(Fortune)网站10日刊出可怕的预测，曾准确预测次贷危机的纽约大学经济学教授、有“末日博士”之称的鲁宾尼(Nouriel Roubini)预测2009年美国经济将进入50年来最严重的衰退，信用大泡沫将会爆炸。到2011年美国的失业率将增至9%，房价将在再下跌15%后触底。新兴市场也会在中国带领下，经济严重减速，全球衰退更为恶化。他建议避开高风险资产，只保留现金或等同现金的政府公债。
华尔街著名投资家罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说，现在是150年来少见、被迫断头平仓的时期，可能进入第二次大萧条，除商品外没有基本面看好的标的。因投资不足，商品和粮食未来可能短缺，经济复苏后，商品价格必将飞涨。美股价格仍高，若股利未增，道琼斯指数跌到4000点以下是进场良机。他说，道琼斯未必会跌到4000点，但“很有可能发生”。美国最后一大泡沫─政府债券随时都会爆炸，他警告人们在把钱投入溢利率4%的30年期政府债券前要三思。他预测道琼斯指数将下探4000点。
曾经预测过美国大型银行危机的华尔街名嘴惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)预言，今年是市场重创经济，明年是经济影响市场，银行版图将经历重大改变。整体经济将比预期糟，最大问题是消费支出低落。2009年美国银行业将大洗牌，大的变小，小的变无。
亿万富豪投资人罗斯(Wilbur Ross)说，房贷利率未调降前，经济不可能回稳。因此引发的贫穷效应将持续压抑消费支出。若放任美国车厂倒闭，失业率攀高，骨牌效应将非脆弱的经济或产业所能承受。他预测，即使新任总统奥巴马推动的新政不出错，美国衰退也要到2010年才会被遏制。
全球最大债券基金经理人格罗斯（Bill Gross）说，2008年全球蒸发掉逾30万亿美元的纸上财富，现在的忧虑是衰退恐怕恶化至近乎萧条。美国指望奥巴马就任总统后有大作为，但12个月不可能治愈过去半世纪高杠杆操作造成的劫难。未来投资报酬率将剩个位数。
曾对网路及房市泡沫提出预警的耶鲁大学经济学家席勒（Robert Shiller）说，除失业率外，今日美国和1930年代大萧条时期极类似，消费者信心未恢复，美联储(FED ）降息或购买资产担保证券也无效。现在股票市盈率虽降至13 ，但1929年股市崩盘时市盈率为6，表示股价仍可能腰斩。
美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）董事长拜尔（Sheila Bair ）表示，放贷标准宽松恶化导致房贷证券市场崩盘，人人有责，未来社会必须回归到上一代艰苦度日的俭约文化，这也是此次信贷危机的教训。
拥有50年华尔街经验的金融大师楚恩（John Train）认为，美国政府必将救市，因此现在虽严重衰退，却不至于陷入萧条。美国靠大量举债延后颓势，意味通胀将再现。投资标的应选择稳健获利、满手现金，或在不景气中能异军突起的公司，并且在最悲观时买进。
美国“财富”(Fortune)网站10日刊出可怕的预测，曾准确预测次贷危机的纽约大学经济学教授、有“末日博士”之称的鲁宾尼(Nouriel Roubini)预测2009年美国经济将进入50年来最严重的衰退，信用大泡沫将会爆炸。到2011年美国的失业率将增至9%，房价将在再下跌15%后触底。新兴市场也会在中国带领下，经济严重减速，全球衰退更为恶化。他建议避开高风险资产，只保留现金或等同现金的政府公债。
华尔街著名投资家罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说，现在是150年来少见、被迫断头平仓的时期，可能进入第二次大萧条，除商品外没有基本面看好的标的。因投资不足，商品和粮食未来可能短缺，经济复苏后，商品价格必将飞涨。美股价格仍高，若股利未增，道琼斯指数跌到4000点以下是进场良机。他说，道琼斯未必会跌到4000点，但“很有可能发生”。美国最后一大泡沫─政府债券随时都会爆炸，他警告人们在把钱投入溢利率4%的30年期政府债券前要三思。他预测道琼斯指数将下探4000点。
曾经预测过美国大型银行危机的华尔街名嘴惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)预言，今年是市场重创经济，明年是经济影响市场，银行版图将经历重大改变。整体经济将比预期糟，最大问题是消费支出低落。2009年美国银行业将大洗牌，大的变小，小的变无。
亿万富豪投资人罗斯(Wilbur Ross)说，房贷利率未调降前，经济不可能回稳。因此引发的贫穷效应将持续压抑消费支出。若放任美国车厂倒闭，失业率攀高，骨牌效应将非脆弱的经济或产业所能承受。他预测，即使新任总统奥巴马推动的新政不出错，美国衰退也要到2010年才会被遏制。
全球最大债券基金经理人格罗斯（Bill Gross）说，2008年全球蒸发掉逾30万亿美元的纸上财富，现在的忧虑是衰退恐怕恶化至近乎萧条。美国指望奥巴马就任总统后有大作为，但12个月不可能治愈过去半世纪高杠杆操作造成的劫难。未来投资报酬率将剩个位数。
曾对网路及房市泡沫提出预警的耶鲁大学经济学家席勒（Robert Shiller）说，除失业率外，今日美国和1930年代大萧条时期极类似，消费者信心未恢复，美联储(FED ）降息或购买资产担保证券也无效。现在股票市盈率虽降至13 ，但1929年股市崩盘时市盈率为6，表示股价仍可能腰斩。
美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）董事长拜尔（Sheila Bair ）表示，放贷标准宽松恶化导致房贷证券市场崩盘，人人有责，未来社会必须回归到上一代艰苦度日的俭约文化，这也是此次信贷危机的教训。
拥有50年华尔街经验的金融大师楚恩（John Train）认为，美国政府必将救市，因此现在虽严重衰退，却不至于陷入萧条。美国靠大量举债延后颓势，意味通胀将再现。投资标的应选择稳健获利、满手现金，或在不景气中能异军突起的公司，并且在最悲观时买进。
Singapore Exchange
Investment case: We expect trading volume to remain volatile in the near term,but it could rebound in FY10 as investors return to the relatively high economic growth region of Asia. Singapore, as a key financial services centre of Asia,should benefit. While securities volume has declined in recent months, derivatives volume has been increasing due to the popularity of futures in thecurrent environment.
Derivatives made up 20% of total revenue in FY08, and there is likely structural upside to this business as more OTC products are migrated onto regulated exchanges. We believe Singapore Exchange’s (SGX) strong balance sheet with a net cash position and monopolistic status make it an attractive stock to own.
Valuation: The stock trades at a 15.3x FY09E PE, in line with its historical average. Our DCF-based price target of S$9.00 assumes a WACC of 8.7% and terminal growth of 3%. We estimate the current share price is assuming average turnover of S$800m per day for the next five years.
This represents a 62% fall from FY08 turnover and a 37% drop from the FY09 average so far. While we expect turnover to remain weak going into the holiday season, we think there is potential for a rebound in January 2009 as investors reassess their investment allocations.
2009 catalysts: We think the main catalyst could be a rebound in securities turnover and we think this could come in early 2009 with some normalisation of risk aversion from current extreme levels.
Derivatives made up 20% of total revenue in FY08, and there is likely structural upside to this business as more OTC products are migrated onto regulated exchanges. We believe Singapore Exchange’s (SGX) strong balance sheet with a net cash position and monopolistic status make it an attractive stock to own.
Valuation: The stock trades at a 15.3x FY09E PE, in line with its historical average. Our DCF-based price target of S$9.00 assumes a WACC of 8.7% and terminal growth of 3%. We estimate the current share price is assuming average turnover of S$800m per day for the next five years.
This represents a 62% fall from FY08 turnover and a 37% drop from the FY09 average so far. While we expect turnover to remain weak going into the holiday season, we think there is potential for a rebound in January 2009 as investors reassess their investment allocations.
2009 catalysts: We think the main catalyst could be a rebound in securities turnover and we think this could come in early 2009 with some normalisation of risk aversion from current extreme levels.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
巴菲特的5＋12＋8＋2法则
巴式方法大致可概括为5项投资逻辑、12项投资要点、8项选股标准和2项投资方式。
5项投资逻辑
1.因为我把自己当成是企业的经营者，所以我成为优秀的投资人;
因为我把自己当成投资人，所以我成为优秀的企业经营者。
2.好的企业比好的价格更重要。
3.一生追求消费垄断企业。
4.最终决定公司股价的是公司的实质价值。
5.没有任何时间适合将最优秀的企业脱手。
12项投资要点
1.利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2.买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3.利润的复合增长与交易费用和税负的避免使投资人受益无穷。
4.不在意一家公司来年可赚多少，仅有意未来5至10年能赚多少。
5.只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6.通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7.价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的；价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；
而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8.投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9.“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资：首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；
其次是可获得相对高的权益报酬率。
10.拥有一只股票，期待它下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11.就算联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会改变我的任何一个作为。
12.不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，
只注意两点：A.买什么股票；B.买入价格。
8项投资标准
1.必须是消费垄断企业。
2.产品简单、易了解、前景看好。
3.有稳定的经营史。
4.经营者理性、忠诚，始终以股东利益为先。
5.财务稳键。
6.经营效率高、收益好。
7.资本支出少、自由现金流量充裕。
8.价格合理。
2项投资方式
1.卡片打洞、终生持有，每年检查一次以下数字：
A.初始的权益报酬率；B.营运毛利；C.负债水准；D.资本支出；E.现金流量。
2.当市场过于高估持有股票的价格时，也可考虑进行短期套利。
某种意义上说，卡片打洞与终生持股，构成了巴式方法最为独特的部分。
也是最使人入迷的部分。
5项投资逻辑
1.因为我把自己当成是企业的经营者，所以我成为优秀的投资人;
因为我把自己当成投资人，所以我成为优秀的企业经营者。
2.好的企业比好的价格更重要。
3.一生追求消费垄断企业。
4.最终决定公司股价的是公司的实质价值。
5.没有任何时间适合将最优秀的企业脱手。
12项投资要点
1.利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2.买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3.利润的复合增长与交易费用和税负的避免使投资人受益无穷。
4.不在意一家公司来年可赚多少，仅有意未来5至10年能赚多少。
5.只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6.通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7.价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的；价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；
而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8.投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9.“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资：首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；
其次是可获得相对高的权益报酬率。
10.拥有一只股票，期待它下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11.就算联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会改变我的任何一个作为。
12.不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，
只注意两点：A.买什么股票；B.买入价格。
8项投资标准
1.必须是消费垄断企业。
2.产品简单、易了解、前景看好。
3.有稳定的经营史。
4.经营者理性、忠诚，始终以股东利益为先。
5.财务稳键。
6.经营效率高、收益好。
7.资本支出少、自由现金流量充裕。
8.价格合理。
2项投资方式
1.卡片打洞、终生持有，每年检查一次以下数字：
A.初始的权益报酬率；B.营运毛利；C.负债水准；D.资本支出；E.现金流量。
2.当市场过于高估持有股票的价格时，也可考虑进行短期套利。
某种意义上说，卡片打洞与终生持股，构成了巴式方法最为独特的部分。
也是最使人入迷的部分。
巴菲特理财法：“三要三不要”
以下是堪称巴菲特投资理念精华的“三要三不要”理财法：
要投资那些始终把股东利益放在首位的企业。巴菲特总是青睐那些经营稳健、讲究诚信、分红回报高的企业，以最大限度地避免股价波动，确保投资的保值和增值。而对于总想利用配股、增发等途径榨取投资者血汗的企业一概拒之门外。
要投资资源垄断型行业。从巴菲特的投资构成来看，道路、桥梁、煤炭、电力等资源垄断型企业占了相当份额，这类企业一般是外资入市购并的首选，同时独特的行业优势也能确保效益的平稳。
要投资易了解、前景看好的企业。巴菲特认为凡是投资的股票必须是自己了如指掌，并且是具有较好行业前景的企业。不熟悉、前途莫测的企业即使被说得天花乱坠也毫不动心。
不要贪婪。1969年整个华尔街进入了投机的疯狂阶段，面对连创新高的股市，巴菲特却在手中股票涨到20%的时候就非常冷静地悉数全抛。
不要跟风。2000年，全世界股市出现了所谓的网络概念股，巴菲特却称自己不懂高科技，没法投资。一年后全球出现了高科技网络股股灾。
不要投机。巴菲特常说的一句口头禅是：拥有一只股票，期待它下个早晨就上涨是十分愚蠢的。
要投资那些始终把股东利益放在首位的企业。巴菲特总是青睐那些经营稳健、讲究诚信、分红回报高的企业，以最大限度地避免股价波动，确保投资的保值和增值。而对于总想利用配股、增发等途径榨取投资者血汗的企业一概拒之门外。
要投资资源垄断型行业。从巴菲特的投资构成来看，道路、桥梁、煤炭、电力等资源垄断型企业占了相当份额，这类企业一般是外资入市购并的首选，同时独特的行业优势也能确保效益的平稳。
要投资易了解、前景看好的企业。巴菲特认为凡是投资的股票必须是自己了如指掌，并且是具有较好行业前景的企业。不熟悉、前途莫测的企业即使被说得天花乱坠也毫不动心。
不要贪婪。1969年整个华尔街进入了投机的疯狂阶段，面对连创新高的股市，巴菲特却在手中股票涨到20%的时候就非常冷静地悉数全抛。
不要跟风。2000年，全世界股市出现了所谓的网络概念股，巴菲特却称自己不懂高科技，没法投资。一年后全球出现了高科技网络股股灾。
不要投机。巴菲特常说的一句口头禅是：拥有一只股票，期待它下个早晨就上涨是十分愚蠢的。
巴菲特投资“金”定律
·利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
·买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
·利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
·不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
·只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
·通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
·价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值预
测过程。
·投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
·“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报酬率。
·拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
·即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
·不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：
A.买什么股票；B.买入价格。
·买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
·利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
·不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
·只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
·通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
·价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值预
测过程。
·投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
·“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报酬率。
·拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
·即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
·不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：
A.买什么股票；B.买入价格。
山下聖人 - 我的分享集03.07.08 第一次买股票
2008年1月8号, 我正式地进入了马来西亚KLSE股票市场。第一个买的是留意了很久的3476 KECK SENG. 当初买的3lot,现在还留着。一来对它有信心，也希望可以留为纪念，所以打算终身不卖了。买股票就是要购买能够让自己放心的。当初RM4.50买，涨到RM4.80现在掉回RM4.18还是没有恐惧，这就是我喜欢的股票。
谈到买股票，感触良多。接触到股票， 应该是由中学时候开始的。当时对于股票的幻想很多，时常在想应该如何去买，如何以后在股票市场上赚大钱。想的很多很多。跟踪马来西亚KLSE股票市场,是由2007年开始，当时刚从新加坡回国，以身上还有的RM1000多，就想直接冲进股票市场。当时真是马来西亚股票大涨的时期，自己没有任何的头绪，就先跟踪报纸上的新闻，还有分出NTA高过股价的。跟踪了大概半年，哇，竟然发现自己筛选构成的PORTFOLIO回酬变成140%以上。当时我懂了，马来西亚股票市场应该是高点了。我看着股票市场冲高，所以就希望等待它跌回的实际。直到2008年，本身大概觉得是时候进场了。当时自己储蓄也有了一些，反正放在银行也帮不了自己，二来马来西亚股票市场应该是回跌的时候了，所以就买了一些自己留意和跟踪很久的股票。
谈到投资马来西亚KLSE股票市场，我觉得个人需要不断的去学习还有跟进。谈到学习，我觉得应该多去阅读关于股票的书籍，尤其是英文的。因为有很多好书都是由美国人所著作的。例如很值得阅读的，我认为有INTELLIGENT INVESTOR, ONE UP ON WALLSTREET,还有许多其它股票市场赚到钱的人所写的书籍。至于网络上的学习，我大都已经收入在自己这个BLOG的BLOGROLL里头了。值得提的是马来西亚自己的CARI.COM的股票论坛- http://cforum.cari.com.my/forumdisplay.php?fid=401，在这里可以学习到很多东西。另外，我本身较喜欢的BLOG有：http://www.samgang.blogspot.com/ 和http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/ 。他们都不自私的分享了自己的经验，还有道出自己研究结果后的疑问，十分值得敬佩。
在还没有进入马来西亚KLSE股票市场前，我觉得个人应该要有自我的心理准备。心理的建设在股票买卖上，我觉得有一定的帮助。不要每天去订着股票上下，而是要知道自己在做什么，做了以后要知道自己下一步要继续怎么办。每个人有自己不同的习惯和性格，那么你对于股票的态度应该也要适合自己。千万不要因为股票大跌而睡不着，因为如果你会睡不着，就代表了你做错了决定，那么应该尽快去改正过来。从前读多一篇文章，谈到恐惧感。文章是那么写的，如果你感到害怕，那是因为你不懂自己想要什么，不懂自己想要什么就会胡乱的做出决定，越是如此，那个人就越是害怕。
在我本身的经验上，我购买股票其实有自己的想法先才去购买的。在股票市场上其实有很多不同的看法还有研究。就连经济都分派系，分为市场自由派还有政府插手的派系。在股票市场很多人喜欢分为价值投资派，技术分析派，最近还衍生了市场心理派，跟踪大户买卖的派系，还有一些人是根据市场的消息所谓的消息派。其实属于什么派系不重要，也不必争论自己的如何好，别人如何不好。重要是你的方法只要能够在长达10年20年都能够在股票市场上为你赚到钱。而我本身呢，就比较相信巴菲特的那套方法，以便宜的价格买入物超所值的好公司，永远是好的。（其实巴菲特也投机，那么应该将他分为那一派呢？）
我阅读过一本书，华文为漫步华尔街，RANDOM WALK DOWN WALLSTREET.自己比较不相信书中的看法，所以也没有在这个BLOG写到。我本身比较不相信RANDOM的道理，如果市场是RANDOM的话，那么根本就不应该去购买任何股票。当然这是我自己的看法，你也可以不认同。
另一个大家常争论的观点是是否应该设立止损点，还有是否应该越起越买，而后跌回逐步卖出；或是越跌越买？香港很多股票大师如曹仁超，林森池都有建议过止损但不止赚，而我本身也阅读过香港一个很出名的BLOG市场先生的书籍，他却建议只赚不止蚀（这个就是他的书名）。中国股神林园却说，继续全仓作业，猫在股票市场，因为不懂另一个高点会不会来。我本身相信市场是有循环的，行业也有循环。 就连亚洲经济也是大概10年一个循环。1997经济风暴到今天2008股票市场大跌20%进入熊市，也是一个循环。那么既然有循环，买入股票的钱不是急需的，只要你买入对的公司，拥有优良的常年业绩的，那么卖出的时间应该不会到来。我本身经历过1997年经济风暴，2000年的美国科技股大跌，美国恐怖袭击，SARS风暴，马来西亚308政治风暴。只要有大跌，就是你进入市场购买好公司的时候。当其他人在恐惧的时候，我就大胆。
最后，应用香港富豪李兆基讲过的话：我在购买股票时，先看国家区域的经济，然后再看行业，然后再选出行业的龙头老大。购买行业的龙头其实不无道理。只要市场份额大，拥有决定价钱的能力，提高PROFIT MARGIN，随时都能够提高本身的业绩。投资者应该建立自己的独立思考和分析能力，拥有世界观还有未来趋势观。
如果你想进入马来西亚KLSE股票市场，建议可以多阅读书籍，推荐一个本地的专栏作家-冯时能，笔名冷眼。他在南洋商报每个星期一都有文章，另外还有写过一本书为30年股票投资心得.
谈到买股票，感触良多。接触到股票， 应该是由中学时候开始的。当时对于股票的幻想很多，时常在想应该如何去买，如何以后在股票市场上赚大钱。想的很多很多。跟踪马来西亚KLSE股票市场,是由2007年开始，当时刚从新加坡回国，以身上还有的RM1000多，就想直接冲进股票市场。当时真是马来西亚股票大涨的时期，自己没有任何的头绪，就先跟踪报纸上的新闻，还有分出NTA高过股价的。跟踪了大概半年，哇，竟然发现自己筛选构成的PORTFOLIO回酬变成140%以上。当时我懂了，马来西亚股票市场应该是高点了。我看着股票市场冲高，所以就希望等待它跌回的实际。直到2008年，本身大概觉得是时候进场了。当时自己储蓄也有了一些，反正放在银行也帮不了自己，二来马来西亚股票市场应该是回跌的时候了，所以就买了一些自己留意和跟踪很久的股票。
谈到投资马来西亚KLSE股票市场，我觉得个人需要不断的去学习还有跟进。谈到学习，我觉得应该多去阅读关于股票的书籍，尤其是英文的。因为有很多好书都是由美国人所著作的。例如很值得阅读的，我认为有INTELLIGENT INVESTOR, ONE UP ON WALLSTREET,还有许多其它股票市场赚到钱的人所写的书籍。至于网络上的学习，我大都已经收入在自己这个BLOG的BLOGROLL里头了。值得提的是马来西亚自己的CARI.COM的股票论坛- http://cforum.cari.com.my/forumdisplay.php?fid=401，在这里可以学习到很多东西。另外，我本身较喜欢的BLOG有：http://www.samgang.blogspot.com/ 和http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/ 。他们都不自私的分享了自己的经验，还有道出自己研究结果后的疑问，十分值得敬佩。
在还没有进入马来西亚KLSE股票市场前，我觉得个人应该要有自我的心理准备。心理的建设在股票买卖上，我觉得有一定的帮助。不要每天去订着股票上下，而是要知道自己在做什么，做了以后要知道自己下一步要继续怎么办。每个人有自己不同的习惯和性格，那么你对于股票的态度应该也要适合自己。千万不要因为股票大跌而睡不着，因为如果你会睡不着，就代表了你做错了决定，那么应该尽快去改正过来。从前读多一篇文章，谈到恐惧感。文章是那么写的，如果你感到害怕，那是因为你不懂自己想要什么，不懂自己想要什么就会胡乱的做出决定，越是如此，那个人就越是害怕。
在我本身的经验上，我购买股票其实有自己的想法先才去购买的。在股票市场上其实有很多不同的看法还有研究。就连经济都分派系，分为市场自由派还有政府插手的派系。在股票市场很多人喜欢分为价值投资派，技术分析派，最近还衍生了市场心理派，跟踪大户买卖的派系，还有一些人是根据市场的消息所谓的消息派。其实属于什么派系不重要，也不必争论自己的如何好，别人如何不好。重要是你的方法只要能够在长达10年20年都能够在股票市场上为你赚到钱。而我本身呢，就比较相信巴菲特的那套方法，以便宜的价格买入物超所值的好公司，永远是好的。（其实巴菲特也投机，那么应该将他分为那一派呢？）
我阅读过一本书，华文为漫步华尔街，RANDOM WALK DOWN WALLSTREET.自己比较不相信书中的看法，所以也没有在这个BLOG写到。我本身比较不相信RANDOM的道理，如果市场是RANDOM的话，那么根本就不应该去购买任何股票。当然这是我自己的看法，你也可以不认同。
另一个大家常争论的观点是是否应该设立止损点，还有是否应该越起越买，而后跌回逐步卖出；或是越跌越买？香港很多股票大师如曹仁超，林森池都有建议过止损但不止赚，而我本身也阅读过香港一个很出名的BLOG市场先生的书籍，他却建议只赚不止蚀（这个就是他的书名）。中国股神林园却说，继续全仓作业，猫在股票市场，因为不懂另一个高点会不会来。我本身相信市场是有循环的，行业也有循环。 就连亚洲经济也是大概10年一个循环。1997经济风暴到今天2008股票市场大跌20%进入熊市，也是一个循环。那么既然有循环，买入股票的钱不是急需的，只要你买入对的公司，拥有优良的常年业绩的，那么卖出的时间应该不会到来。我本身经历过1997年经济风暴，2000年的美国科技股大跌，美国恐怖袭击，SARS风暴，马来西亚308政治风暴。只要有大跌，就是你进入市场购买好公司的时候。当其他人在恐惧的时候，我就大胆。
最后，应用香港富豪李兆基讲过的话：我在购买股票时，先看国家区域的经济，然后再看行业，然后再选出行业的龙头老大。购买行业的龙头其实不无道理。只要市场份额大，拥有决定价钱的能力，提高PROFIT MARGIN，随时都能够提高本身的业绩。投资者应该建立自己的独立思考和分析能力，拥有世界观还有未来趋势观。
如果你想进入马来西亚KLSE股票市场，建议可以多阅读书籍，推荐一个本地的专栏作家-冯时能，笔名冷眼。他在南洋商报每个星期一都有文章，另外还有写过一本书为30年股票投资心得.
七旬大户：50万元赚200万
大户档案
大户：刘伟
年龄：76岁
股龄：19年
本金：3000元
最高市值：500万
目前状态：空仓
炒股箴言：股市给你机会，一定抓牢；股市没有机会，千万别自找机会
"股市中，每诞生一位百万大户，就至少有50位以上的散户成为他们成功的基石。"12月2日，记者采访了一位不同寻常的鹤发老人，他就是以数百万资金在波诡云谲的股海中冲浪近20年的大户。
刘伟，今年76岁，1990年进入股市。如今的他，面对"股雨劲风"早已变得理性镇定。去年5700点逃顶后，至今空仓。
"借钱买的股票"
1990年，刘先生随家人去上海。当时银行在卖原始股认购证，30元一张，刘先生虽然对股市一窍不通，但觉得银行卖的应该不会赔，就花3000元买了100张。后来中签后，赚了点小钱，于是开始关注老八股。
谈到自己的第一只股票，"阅股无数"的他记忆犹新，"当时我发现四川长虹这只股票几天就从7元涨到14元，与家人商量后，向一位关系不错的朋友借了50万，以每股14元的价格全部买入了这只股票，开始了自己的炒股生涯。"
"50万元赚200万"
买入股票后，刘先生对股市仍没有深刻认识，只是三天两头到证券公司看看行情。了解到自己的股票隔一阵儿涨一点，心里喜滋滋的。转眼一年时间过去了，四川长虹已经涨到69元。这时，刘先生为是否卖出请教了自己的侄女，一位金融专业的大学生。"她对股票比我有研究，她告诉我可以出手了。于是，我就卖出所有股票，在股海中捞得第一桶金--近200万。"
上世纪90年代初期的200万，对于普通百姓而言，简直是天文数字。刘先生也一样，高兴地拿着钱不知所措。在上海买了房子买了车，随后他选择回到沈阳工作。
"不怀侥幸心理"
1996年，刘先生回到沈阳，面对股市中成百上千的股票，眼花缭乱的他决定从头学习。"空头、多头、利好、利空、割肉、跳水、套牢、踏空……这些常识，弄得我云山雾罩。于是周末听证券课便成了我的习惯。沈阳所有券商的课我都听过，而且坚持十几年，算一算，已经有千堂课了。后来，又学操作电脑，现在我的电脑已经安装了七个炒股软件，它们帮我分析指标数据。"
随着年龄增长，刘先生的操作逐显稳健保守。看得懂的行情做，看不懂的，亏3%-5%立即割肉出局，坚决不怀侥幸心理。
"股瘾说戒就戒"
"炒股近20年，您自认为最成功的操作是哪次？"面对这个问题，刘先生毫无犹豫的回答："去年5700点成功逃顶，至今未再进场。"原来，刘先生从1200点入场，去年牛市中大盘涨的越高，他的心悬的越高，5700点时毅然决定全部离场，锁定收益。而且，面对十几年形成的股瘾，他竟说戒就戒，今年始终空仓。
"十多年的深入学习，让我了解到市场怎么走都是正确的。股市给你机会时，你千万抓牢；股市没有机会，我们只能等待，千万别自找机会。在下降趋势中，我是不会冒险做短线的，因为那时的获利机会少之甚少，76岁了，没必要冒这个险！"他感慨地说
大户：刘伟
年龄：76岁
股龄：19年
本金：3000元
最高市值：500万
目前状态：空仓
炒股箴言：股市给你机会，一定抓牢；股市没有机会，千万别自找机会
"股市中，每诞生一位百万大户，就至少有50位以上的散户成为他们成功的基石。"12月2日，记者采访了一位不同寻常的鹤发老人，他就是以数百万资金在波诡云谲的股海中冲浪近20年的大户。
刘伟，今年76岁，1990年进入股市。如今的他，面对"股雨劲风"早已变得理性镇定。去年5700点逃顶后，至今空仓。
"借钱买的股票"
1990年，刘先生随家人去上海。当时银行在卖原始股认购证，30元一张，刘先生虽然对股市一窍不通，但觉得银行卖的应该不会赔，就花3000元买了100张。后来中签后，赚了点小钱，于是开始关注老八股。
谈到自己的第一只股票，"阅股无数"的他记忆犹新，"当时我发现四川长虹这只股票几天就从7元涨到14元，与家人商量后，向一位关系不错的朋友借了50万，以每股14元的价格全部买入了这只股票，开始了自己的炒股生涯。"
"50万元赚200万"
买入股票后，刘先生对股市仍没有深刻认识，只是三天两头到证券公司看看行情。了解到自己的股票隔一阵儿涨一点，心里喜滋滋的。转眼一年时间过去了，四川长虹已经涨到69元。这时，刘先生为是否卖出请教了自己的侄女，一位金融专业的大学生。"她对股票比我有研究，她告诉我可以出手了。于是，我就卖出所有股票，在股海中捞得第一桶金--近200万。"
上世纪90年代初期的200万，对于普通百姓而言，简直是天文数字。刘先生也一样，高兴地拿着钱不知所措。在上海买了房子买了车，随后他选择回到沈阳工作。
"不怀侥幸心理"
1996年，刘先生回到沈阳，面对股市中成百上千的股票，眼花缭乱的他决定从头学习。"空头、多头、利好、利空、割肉、跳水、套牢、踏空……这些常识，弄得我云山雾罩。于是周末听证券课便成了我的习惯。沈阳所有券商的课我都听过，而且坚持十几年，算一算，已经有千堂课了。后来，又学操作电脑，现在我的电脑已经安装了七个炒股软件，它们帮我分析指标数据。"
随着年龄增长，刘先生的操作逐显稳健保守。看得懂的行情做，看不懂的，亏3%-5%立即割肉出局，坚决不怀侥幸心理。
"股瘾说戒就戒"
"炒股近20年，您自认为最成功的操作是哪次？"面对这个问题，刘先生毫无犹豫的回答："去年5700点成功逃顶，至今未再进场。"原来，刘先生从1200点入场，去年牛市中大盘涨的越高，他的心悬的越高，5700点时毅然决定全部离场，锁定收益。而且，面对十几年形成的股瘾，他竟说戒就戒，今年始终空仓。
"十多年的深入学习，让我了解到市场怎么走都是正确的。股市给你机会时，你千万抓牢；股市没有机会，我们只能等待，千万别自找机会。在下降趋势中，我是不会冒险做短线的，因为那时的获利机会少之甚少，76岁了，没必要冒这个险！"他感慨地说
做自己有把握做好的事情
价值投资的创始人、美国证券分析师协会首任主席本·格雷厄姆曾经说过这样一番话：“当一名证券分析师就要做你认为有把握做好的事情，而且只做这些事情.”
对这句话我有很深的感受。入市前几年我热衷于各种股市技术的学习和研究。学习本来是好事。但是可能爱好过度，博而不专，杂而不精，学习和操作严重脱节。按照后来师傅的话说就是你研究的是学问，而不是操作，在学习几年可以去做股评家。
现在很多朋友在重复着我的过去，乐此不疲的沉醉于学习之中。浪费着青春，用有限的金钱验证着股市中的学问。等待他们的可能是“虽然我一无所有，可是股市的知识我都懂。”
我很幸运认识了我的师傅，他给我敲醒了警钟：技术高的能赚钱.技术低的也能赚钱.就是不知道自己技术有多高的人赚不到钱. 学习只是手段，赚钱才是目的。你起码能在股市中赚钱，哪怕一年10％，你才有资格学习。
师傅问我有没有把握一年赚20％。我说在有行情的时候做一把。没有行情的时候空仓，我有90％的把握能赚20％。他说那就先这样做吧，不断的完善这种方法就行了。每年先赚20％，余下的时间去学习。我严格按照师傅说的去做，笑看股市悲欢离合，起起落落，股市割肉套牢的痛苦远我而去。
我一直想一个问题.森林里有狮子.老虎.为什么还有那么多弱小的动物生存呢? 俺师傅开玩笑说:羊活着.是因为它吃草.不去吃虎肉.精辟呀，羊有自知之明. 股市是高风险的市场。认识市场，更要认识自己，不是高手才能赚钱。关键是做自己有把握做好的事情。而做自己有把握做好的事情得关键是:首先不要做自己没有把握做好的事情.
对这句话我有很深的感受。入市前几年我热衷于各种股市技术的学习和研究。学习本来是好事。但是可能爱好过度，博而不专，杂而不精，学习和操作严重脱节。按照后来师傅的话说就是你研究的是学问，而不是操作，在学习几年可以去做股评家。
现在很多朋友在重复着我的过去，乐此不疲的沉醉于学习之中。浪费着青春，用有限的金钱验证着股市中的学问。等待他们的可能是“虽然我一无所有，可是股市的知识我都懂。”
我很幸运认识了我的师傅，他给我敲醒了警钟：技术高的能赚钱.技术低的也能赚钱.就是不知道自己技术有多高的人赚不到钱. 学习只是手段，赚钱才是目的。你起码能在股市中赚钱，哪怕一年10％，你才有资格学习。
师傅问我有没有把握一年赚20％。我说在有行情的时候做一把。没有行情的时候空仓，我有90％的把握能赚20％。他说那就先这样做吧，不断的完善这种方法就行了。每年先赚20％，余下的时间去学习。我严格按照师傅说的去做，笑看股市悲欢离合，起起落落，股市割肉套牢的痛苦远我而去。
我一直想一个问题.森林里有狮子.老虎.为什么还有那么多弱小的动物生存呢? 俺师傅开玩笑说:羊活着.是因为它吃草.不去吃虎肉.精辟呀，羊有自知之明. 股市是高风险的市场。认识市场，更要认识自己，不是高手才能赚钱。关键是做自己有把握做好的事情。而做自己有把握做好的事情得关键是:首先不要做自己没有把握做好的事情.
与时间较劲(十五)坚持三条投资轻松无忧获胜
有朋友与我讨论操作上的事情,问我有没有最简洁的方法让投资变得轻松好掌握,我说方法是简单轻松,关键是看你个人的性情和坚持的毅力有多强了,因为价值投资一开始介绍给他，感觉生涩，我就从最浅显的方面入手谈操作，我向他介绍了以下三条:
一、只关注。。。。
有这么一个规律性的东西，说指数，很简单：大涨必然伴随大跌，大跌必然有大涨，空头用尽必涨，多头衰竭必跌。
因此我们看看这么些年股指运行的规律，只要能忍耐这是必然发生的事情。
那么好，我们不妨只在市场大跌以后才来关注这个市场，不错的想法，但何为大跌呢？
我只向他简单陈述了一个判断：
指数有200%以上涨幅，我们只在回调二分之一位置以后关注
指数一旦有300%以上涨幅，我们就只在回调三分之二位置以后关注
例如，2001年开始的回调，从2200点下来，因为指数翻倍过，那么我们只在1100点以下去关注市场，再讨论买进的问题。2007年指数到了6100点，因为指数以前涨N倍，那么我们只在6100-6100*2\3=2000点时候开始关注，这不是佐罗的想法，是我的红旗投资伙伴的总结，大家可以结合历年来检验以下！
二、只买进。。。。
有了前面的关注位置，那么接下来如何买进呢？
要分批买进是必须的，单分批买进也有三个控制风险的方法
1、空间上拉开距离，比如将资金分5份，每下跌5%买进一份
2、时间上拉开距离，比如每周只买一次，一个月建好仓，或两个月，两周买一次。
3、K线上找买进理由：比如每连续下跌三天，就买一回
一般情况，以上方法可以互相综合运用。
三、只选择。。。。
有方法，但选择对象也要讲究一下，这样才能确保安全获利，时间空间的选择很重要，但投资对象的选择更不要忽视。
1、只选择稳定的蓝筹企业
2、只选择有业绩保障的成长白马股
3、选择那些力求简单明了绝对价格不高的优质票
4、行业龙头，弱周期性，有一定壁垒。
以上是我和这位朋友阐述的基本内容，大家可以回忆以下，或做下过去若干年的统计，如果这么操作下去，是否能轻松无忧获胜？？
一、只关注。。。。
有这么一个规律性的东西，说指数，很简单：大涨必然伴随大跌，大跌必然有大涨，空头用尽必涨，多头衰竭必跌。
因此我们看看这么些年股指运行的规律，只要能忍耐这是必然发生的事情。
那么好，我们不妨只在市场大跌以后才来关注这个市场，不错的想法，但何为大跌呢？
我只向他简单陈述了一个判断：
指数有200%以上涨幅，我们只在回调二分之一位置以后关注
指数一旦有300%以上涨幅，我们就只在回调三分之二位置以后关注
例如，2001年开始的回调，从2200点下来，因为指数翻倍过，那么我们只在1100点以下去关注市场，再讨论买进的问题。2007年指数到了6100点，因为指数以前涨N倍，那么我们只在6100-6100*2\3=2000点时候开始关注，这不是佐罗的想法，是我的红旗投资伙伴的总结，大家可以结合历年来检验以下！
二、只买进。。。。
有了前面的关注位置，那么接下来如何买进呢？
要分批买进是必须的，单分批买进也有三个控制风险的方法
1、空间上拉开距离，比如将资金分5份，每下跌5%买进一份
2、时间上拉开距离，比如每周只买一次，一个月建好仓，或两个月，两周买一次。
3、K线上找买进理由：比如每连续下跌三天，就买一回
一般情况，以上方法可以互相综合运用。
三、只选择。。。。
有方法，但选择对象也要讲究一下，这样才能确保安全获利，时间空间的选择很重要，但投资对象的选择更不要忽视。
1、只选择稳定的蓝筹企业
2、只选择有业绩保障的成长白马股
3、选择那些力求简单明了绝对价格不高的优质票
4、行业龙头，弱周期性，有一定壁垒。
以上是我和这位朋友阐述的基本内容，大家可以回忆以下，或做下过去若干年的统计，如果这么操作下去，是否能轻松无忧获胜？？
巴菲特不相信神话
随着美国金融危机爆发，全球股市疯狂跳水，被称为 “股神 ”的巴菲特手持资金，乐呵呵地开始了他的抄底之旅。然而根据权威调查显示，巴菲特在这场金融危机中并不是隔岸观火，他自己的损失竟高达 163亿美元，名列美国股市十大输家排行榜第三位。那么，该如何看待这位损失惨重的 “股神 ”呢？
巴菲特信奉长期投资策略，但这个投资策略也是必须寄托在一个长久稳定的股市之下才可能赚钱。所以你今天不要看他在这一刻损失 163亿，而是要看这 50年来能够赚多少钱。你也不要跟他最高点做比较，而是跟他原始投资做比较，你看他能赚多少钱。他是一个看长线的人，因此就不能以短线损失多少来评判他的是非功过。我相信，只要这次金融危机顺利解决，股票市场恢复正常，他一定大赚一笔，这是一定的。而这也是他会在这个时刻大量买进的原因。如果真像他所预期的，会反弹的话，那他又大赚一笔，说不定他又是赚钱最多的人。
其实巴菲特懂的东西，美国每一个商学院出来的人都懂。在美国教 MBA只有两个学校是案例教学，一个是哈佛，一个是维吉尼亚大学，除了这两个大学之外的其他大学都不是案例教学，根本不谈案例的，而且所有的其他大学所用的教材都是一样的，用的习题都是一样的，标准答案也都是一样的。
因此美国每一个 MBA学生学出来出后，他所懂的东西都是一样的。所以巴菲特懂的东西和别人都是一样的，他所聘用的金融分析师水平也是跟我的学生一模一样的。
他所以能赚钱，他和我们一般人不一样之处，在于这个人耐得住寂寞，一般人耐不住的。他估算出真实价值之后，他一定等到股市大跌他才进场，等到这一家公司股价大跌他才会进场，否则情愿不做。而且这个人非常务实，我觉得他投资的理念是，从来不相信神话，从来不相信高科技。这里所谓高科技是金融方面的高科技，比如说对冲基金，比如说 IT互联网，比如说投资银行的财富神话，他通通不信，他只相信可口可乐，他只相信通用电气。
因为这些传统的公司用数学模型来算是最准确的，这种数学模型是算不了高科技的，算不了投资银行的，甚至算不了对冲基金，只能算传统行业，因此他就一生都把他的钱投资在传统的行业。而且每个股票都估算出它的真实价格，然后就看跌了之后，市场价格低于它真实价值他就进场，因此长期来看，他都是赚钱的。
毫无疑问，巴菲特具有超人的耐心与执著。同时具有当机立断的另一面。在金融危机袭来时，雷曼兄弟公司向巴菲特求援，巴菲特不为所动，但当高盛公司把电话打过来，正喝着樱桃可乐的巴菲特只用了一刻钟就敲定了 50亿美元的投资计划。巴菲特到底是怎样看待企业？这些看法又如何影响他的投资决策呢？
他不会去买 IT，什么对冲基金这种新型金融，他不玩的，他认为是糟糕的。实际上他是对的 ——IT的泡沫多了，投资银行的财富神话也破灭了，对冲基金的神话也爆破了。
他这次买了很多股票，包括美林银行，包括通用电气，还有高盛，甚至还有日本的一家工具制造商，还有另外一家能源公司，还有汇源果汁，这些都是传统公司。他为什么这个时候买呢？他认为， 1932年 7月 8日道琼斯指数创了全世界的新低，但是到了第二年的 3月，罗斯福就任总统之后，这个指数马上上涨 30%。而且纵观 20世纪，虽然美国经历过两次世界大战，经济大萧条，多次金融崩溃，但是道琼斯指数由最初的 66点攀升到 11497点。什么是道琼斯指数？道琼斯指数都是传统行业，包括银行，包括可口可乐、通用电气都在里面。他买的就是以道琼斯指数为主的传统行业。他笃信，长期之下，道琼斯指数一定是向上走，所以碰到经济萧条它是暂时下跌，因此现在就是进场的好时机，将来一定会回弹
巴菲特信奉长期投资策略，但这个投资策略也是必须寄托在一个长久稳定的股市之下才可能赚钱。所以你今天不要看他在这一刻损失 163亿，而是要看这 50年来能够赚多少钱。你也不要跟他最高点做比较，而是跟他原始投资做比较，你看他能赚多少钱。他是一个看长线的人，因此就不能以短线损失多少来评判他的是非功过。我相信，只要这次金融危机顺利解决，股票市场恢复正常，他一定大赚一笔，这是一定的。而这也是他会在这个时刻大量买进的原因。如果真像他所预期的，会反弹的话，那他又大赚一笔，说不定他又是赚钱最多的人。
其实巴菲特懂的东西，美国每一个商学院出来的人都懂。在美国教 MBA只有两个学校是案例教学，一个是哈佛，一个是维吉尼亚大学，除了这两个大学之外的其他大学都不是案例教学，根本不谈案例的，而且所有的其他大学所用的教材都是一样的，用的习题都是一样的，标准答案也都是一样的。
因此美国每一个 MBA学生学出来出后，他所懂的东西都是一样的。所以巴菲特懂的东西和别人都是一样的，他所聘用的金融分析师水平也是跟我的学生一模一样的。
他所以能赚钱，他和我们一般人不一样之处，在于这个人耐得住寂寞，一般人耐不住的。他估算出真实价值之后，他一定等到股市大跌他才进场，等到这一家公司股价大跌他才会进场，否则情愿不做。而且这个人非常务实，我觉得他投资的理念是，从来不相信神话，从来不相信高科技。这里所谓高科技是金融方面的高科技，比如说对冲基金，比如说 IT互联网，比如说投资银行的财富神话，他通通不信，他只相信可口可乐，他只相信通用电气。
因为这些传统的公司用数学模型来算是最准确的，这种数学模型是算不了高科技的，算不了投资银行的，甚至算不了对冲基金，只能算传统行业，因此他就一生都把他的钱投资在传统的行业。而且每个股票都估算出它的真实价格，然后就看跌了之后，市场价格低于它真实价值他就进场，因此长期来看，他都是赚钱的。
毫无疑问，巴菲特具有超人的耐心与执著。同时具有当机立断的另一面。在金融危机袭来时，雷曼兄弟公司向巴菲特求援，巴菲特不为所动，但当高盛公司把电话打过来，正喝着樱桃可乐的巴菲特只用了一刻钟就敲定了 50亿美元的投资计划。巴菲特到底是怎样看待企业？这些看法又如何影响他的投资决策呢？
他不会去买 IT，什么对冲基金这种新型金融，他不玩的，他认为是糟糕的。实际上他是对的 ——IT的泡沫多了，投资银行的财富神话也破灭了，对冲基金的神话也爆破了。
他这次买了很多股票，包括美林银行，包括通用电气，还有高盛，甚至还有日本的一家工具制造商，还有另外一家能源公司，还有汇源果汁，这些都是传统公司。他为什么这个时候买呢？他认为， 1932年 7月 8日道琼斯指数创了全世界的新低，但是到了第二年的 3月，罗斯福就任总统之后，这个指数马上上涨 30%。而且纵观 20世纪，虽然美国经历过两次世界大战，经济大萧条，多次金融崩溃，但是道琼斯指数由最初的 66点攀升到 11497点。什么是道琼斯指数？道琼斯指数都是传统行业，包括银行，包括可口可乐、通用电气都在里面。他买的就是以道琼斯指数为主的传统行业。他笃信，长期之下，道琼斯指数一定是向上走，所以碰到经济萧条它是暂时下跌，因此现在就是进场的好时机，将来一定会回弹
价值投资准则：安全边际之价值陷阱
避免落入价值陷阱、寻找到安全边际的关键在于不能简单地从过去的经验出发，要对公司未来的业绩有着清晰的认识和预期。巴菲特将这种基于过去经验的投资称之为 “ 后视镜投资 ” （注：柏拉图化），永远只看见后方，而不能看见未来。深入了解公司的基本面，进行理性的分析，是给予公司内在价值合理评估和把握安全边际进行投资的重要前提。
在之前的两篇价值投资准则中，我们提到了安全边际和内在价值的概念。由于对股票的内在价值的计算是不能够精确的，因此足够的安全边际就显得十分重要。
投资者要明白，并不是股票的价格看起来足够便宜就意味着足够的安全边际，很多时候便宜的股价往往是因为公司的管理和盈利出现了问题，或者公司的业务属于高风险行业。为了对这个问题进行比较清楚的阐述，我们引入一个概念 “ 价值陷阱 ” ，不少寻找安全边际的投资者经常陷入其中。
我们在之前的文章曾经提到过商店打折销售的情况，200块的商品以100块的折扣价格销售，这种100块的销售有两种情况：第一种是真正的促销季节，以5折出售，这种情形类似投资中的安全边际；第二种是该商品被发现出现了瑕疵，以5折出售，这种情况下的100块已经不是真正的折扣出售了，而是因为本身的瑕疵导致商品价值的降低，就像我们上面提到的股票价格便宜是因为公司出现了问题，这时候看起来50%的空间提供了足够安全边际，而事实上根本没有安全边际，再促销的时候，这种商品可能就会卖50块了。遇到这种情形，投资者没有获得安全边际，反而陷入了价值陷阱之中。表面上公司的股价被低估，是很好的投资机会，实际上根本没有明显的投资潜力。
虽然价值投资者信奉市场是会犯错误的，但市场经常是正确的。一旦发现了某些看似非常便宜的股票，投资者反应不该是立即买入，因为这种便宜的印象往往是根据过去一段时期股价的表现得出的。投资者需要做的事情是去了解相应的上市公司是否出现了问题，是管理问题、业绩下滑或者是经营风险放大。要对安全边际和价值陷阱进行判别，首先要做的是去确定股票的内在价值。
除去市场大面积的情绪化波动带来的机会之外，在一般的情况下，市场什么时候会给予公司股票错误的价格或者低估股票的价值呢？
1、市场过于关注公司短期的业绩表现而无视公司长期的业绩潜力。这种情况经常发生在公司的短期业绩出现较大幅度的下滑，像季报、半年报或者一年的业绩出现大幅的下滑。而公司真实的基本面显示业绩下滑仅仅是短期的困难所致，或者业务景气刚好处于谷底，这种情况往往会为长期投资者提供足够的安全边际。
2、对公司存在巨大的不确定性。这是莫尼什-帕伯莱*投资方法中的基础。他的观点简单概括起来是：投资者对公司的业务状况存在重大不确定时所做出的反应和面对该公司实际发生严重风险的反应一样 - 恐慌。而这种恐慌经常为确信的投资者创造安全边际。
3、投资者对公司业务的了解不够清楚。这种情况常常发生在行业中，在一个行业背景下不同公司的细分市场和定位往往是存在区别，这意味着并非所有的公司对行业负面情况都会有一致的业绩反应。但当这种行业状况发生时，由于大量此类投资者的存在，会使得部分业绩不受影响的公司股价也受整个行业的影响而下跌，从而形成安全边际。
避免落入价值陷阱、寻找到安全边际的关键在于不能简单地从过去的经验出发，要对公司未来的业绩有着清晰的认识和预期。巴菲特将这种基于过去经验的投资称之为 “ 后视镜投资 ” ，永远只看见后方，而不能看见未来。深入了解公司的基本面，进行理性的分析，是给予公司内在价值合理评估和把握安全边际进行投资的重要前提。
在之前的两篇价值投资准则中，我们提到了安全边际和内在价值的概念。由于对股票的内在价值的计算是不能够精确的，因此足够的安全边际就显得十分重要。
投资者要明白，并不是股票的价格看起来足够便宜就意味着足够的安全边际，很多时候便宜的股价往往是因为公司的管理和盈利出现了问题，或者公司的业务属于高风险行业。为了对这个问题进行比较清楚的阐述，我们引入一个概念 “ 价值陷阱 ” ，不少寻找安全边际的投资者经常陷入其中。
我们在之前的文章曾经提到过商店打折销售的情况，200块的商品以100块的折扣价格销售，这种100块的销售有两种情况：第一种是真正的促销季节，以5折出售，这种情形类似投资中的安全边际；第二种是该商品被发现出现了瑕疵，以5折出售，这种情况下的100块已经不是真正的折扣出售了，而是因为本身的瑕疵导致商品价值的降低，就像我们上面提到的股票价格便宜是因为公司出现了问题，这时候看起来50%的空间提供了足够安全边际，而事实上根本没有安全边际，再促销的时候，这种商品可能就会卖50块了。遇到这种情形，投资者没有获得安全边际，反而陷入了价值陷阱之中。表面上公司的股价被低估，是很好的投资机会，实际上根本没有明显的投资潜力。
虽然价值投资者信奉市场是会犯错误的，但市场经常是正确的。一旦发现了某些看似非常便宜的股票，投资者反应不该是立即买入，因为这种便宜的印象往往是根据过去一段时期股价的表现得出的。投资者需要做的事情是去了解相应的上市公司是否出现了问题，是管理问题、业绩下滑或者是经营风险放大。要对安全边际和价值陷阱进行判别，首先要做的是去确定股票的内在价值。
除去市场大面积的情绪化波动带来的机会之外，在一般的情况下，市场什么时候会给予公司股票错误的价格或者低估股票的价值呢？
1、市场过于关注公司短期的业绩表现而无视公司长期的业绩潜力。这种情况经常发生在公司的短期业绩出现较大幅度的下滑，像季报、半年报或者一年的业绩出现大幅的下滑。而公司真实的基本面显示业绩下滑仅仅是短期的困难所致，或者业务景气刚好处于谷底，这种情况往往会为长期投资者提供足够的安全边际。
2、对公司存在巨大的不确定性。这是莫尼什-帕伯莱*投资方法中的基础。他的观点简单概括起来是：投资者对公司的业务状况存在重大不确定时所做出的反应和面对该公司实际发生严重风险的反应一样 - 恐慌。而这种恐慌经常为确信的投资者创造安全边际。
3、投资者对公司业务的了解不够清楚。这种情况常常发生在行业中，在一个行业背景下不同公司的细分市场和定位往往是存在区别，这意味着并非所有的公司对行业负面情况都会有一致的业绩反应。但当这种行业状况发生时，由于大量此类投资者的存在，会使得部分业绩不受影响的公司股价也受整个行业的影响而下跌，从而形成安全边际。
避免落入价值陷阱、寻找到安全边际的关键在于不能简单地从过去的经验出发，要对公司未来的业绩有着清晰的认识和预期。巴菲特将这种基于过去经验的投资称之为 “ 后视镜投资 ” ，永远只看见后方，而不能看见未来。深入了解公司的基本面，进行理性的分析，是给予公司内在价值合理评估和把握安全边际进行投资的重要前提。
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Z-OBEE: Trading 65% below Net Asset Value
Mr Wang, the chairman, has a master's degree in engineering from the University of New South Wales. We set off to their factory at Xixiang Street, Jingangshan Industrial Zone, Baoan District.
Z-OBEE started off as an investment holding company in September 2002 dealing mainly in procurement and trading of electric components and mobile handsets. It ventured into PCB design solutions in 2004 and by 2006, it was able to provide full-set solutions - from product definition to production support.
To capitalise on the growth of the mobile handset industry, Z-OBEE acquired other design solutions house, Zeus, and established subsidiaries like PhoneLink and CCDH between 2004 and 2006.
Currently, PhoneLink focuses on developing 3G handset solutions while CCHD and Zeus focus on GSM solutions for different IC platforms. To differentiate itself from competitors, Z-OBEE expanded its range of services to offer customers a one-stop service solution, which includes the entire process from design to production of mobile handsets.
In March 2006, a joint venture company, Zhenhua OBEE, was established together with Zhenhua Technology and Full Wealth.
Zhenhua Technology is a licensed mobile handset manufacturer listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Mobile handsets designed by Z-OBEE can be manufactured by the Zhenhua Group and sold under the registered handset brand name of Zhenhua Technology by Z-OBEE’s distribution customers.
To strengthen its capabilities as a one-stop service centre and to improve its cost competitiveness, Tongqing Communication Equipment was established in March 2007 to provide PCBA and the assembly of semi-finished handsets.
Z-OBEE was listed on Singapore Exchange on 21 Nov 2007 at an IPO price of S$0.34, and 129.0m shares were offered, of which 88.0m were new shares and 41.0m vendor shares.
Stock has slumped from 34 cents at IPO about a year ago to 5.5 cents recently.
The NEW Z-OBEE
At the factory, Mr Mao Hong Jian, the Executive Deputy General Manager, gave us a presentation and showed us around. We were told that the new Z-OBEE is a mobile handset solutions house that can provide either full-set solutions service or a specific service at a specific stage, based on customers’ requirements.
Its full-set solutions service comprises the entire handset design cycle, which includes industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support, and assembly of PCBA and completed handsets.
Z-OBEE serves two major groups of customers:
1) Licensed mobile handset manufacturer customers
Z-OBEE provides solutions mainly in the form of ID/MD and PCB Assembly (PCBA) to these customers who procure the hardware components, assemble the handsets and sell them under their brand names.
2) Mobile handset distributor customers
Z-OBEE provides handset designs and also procurement and production support services to distributors who cooperate with licensed mobile handset manufacturers to manufacture and sell their mobile handsets under manufacturers’ brands. Z-OBEE's production facilities are placed in Shenzhen under Tongqing and Zhenhua Obee.
Tongqing
To expand the capacity in providing one-stop solutions, Z-OBEE established Tongqing, a wholly foreign-owned entity in Shenzhen. In the past, Tongqing did not possess a mobile handset manufacturing license and did not engage in the manufacture of finished handsets. Instead, Tongqing engages in providing subcontracted manufacturing services for hardware used in mobile handsets (mainly PCBA) and assembling semi-finished handsets.
As the PRC government has announced the abolishment of the licensing for handset manufacturing business in late 2007, Z-OBEE can provide finished handset assembly services and sell its own brandname handsets.
The factory and office premises of Tongqing are located on a leased premise in Shenzhen, PRC, with a GFA of approximately 7,872 sq m.
Currently, Tongqing has five SMT lines with a total annual capacity of approximately five million pieces of PCBA. The five lines (Fuji brand) were bought last year, each costing USD 1 million. Mr Mao explained that the current utilization rate is around 70%. Tongqing also has five handset assembly lines, which can assemble approximately 2.4 million units of semi-finished handsets per annum. The factory commenced operations in August 2007.
Zhenhua Obee
The group’s joint venture vehicle, Zhenhua Obee, in which Z-OBEE has a 42% shareholding interest, has two SMT lines to carry out PCBA operations with a combined annual capacity of approximately 2.4 million units of PCBA. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are leased to and operated by Zhenhua Communication for a term of three years ending on 30 April 2009 for a monthly rental of RMB 314k. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are located in Shenzhen, PRC.
Z-OBEE management is determined to create value for the PRC mobile handset industry. Photo by Mephisto
Large growth potential in the PRC mobile handset industry
China is the world’s largest mobile handset market. According to CCID Consulting, the sales volume in China was 150 million units in 2007 or 24.1% above that of 2006. If black-market mobiles from smuggled, unregistered brands and other illegal products were included, the figure would have exceeded 200 million units.
In addition, over 60% of users changed their mobiles with over 90 million mobiles sold for this purpose. The reasons could be faster function upgrades, higher performance-price ratio, shorter product life cycle, and customized service by the network operators.
The latest report from CCID: Mobile phone sales in China hit a new high of 43.05 million sets or RMB$49b in the first quarter of 2008, up 4.02% YoY and 7.22% QoQ respectively, due mainly to the year-end and Spring Festival promotions launched by mobile phone retailers.
The sales volume is expected to hit 180 million units by the end of the year, representing an expected growth of 20%. Foreign brands gained 65% of the mobile phone market in China in 1Q08, slightly down from 67.5% in the same period of last year. Thus, local players like Z-OBEE have a lot of opportunity to wrestle market share from the foreign brands.
From 2001 to 2007, the number of subscribers grew from 145.2 million to 547.3 million, at a CAGR of 24.7%. In 2007, the number of new subscriber reached a new record in recent years with over 86 million new subscribers. This works out to over seven million new subscribers per month.
The Ministry of Industry and Information recently reported that the number of mobile phone subscribers in China has risen to more than 616 million by Aug 2008, a huge 68.7 million more subscribers than that at the end of 2007. Additionally, the telecom industry produced revenue of RMB$194.1 billion, up 10.8% YoY.
The average number of mobile handsets held by per 100 persons in China is relatively low at 41.6 units (or penetration rate of 41.6%), compared to 80 units held by per 100 persons (penetration rate of 80%) in mature markets. Therefore, many industry players believe there is still great potential for expansion in China, which in turn is likely to increase the demand for mobile handsets.
Business Strategies and Future Plans.
I asked Mr Wang, why he chose to compete in an industry dominated by local and foreign big boys. According to CCID Consulting, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson still dominate the mobile phone market in the world’s fastest growing economy and account for more than 70% of all mobile phones sold there during the first half of this year.
During the first six months, around 295 million mobile phones were produced in China, and the figure is expected to exceed half a billion till the year’s end. Mr Wang replied with a laugh that this was exactly the reason he moved into this market. He has a corporate vision to become a leading mobile handset solutions provider with the brand name “OBEE” that offers services ranging from product definition, solutions design to production support, and to develop Z-OBEE's brandname handsets.
With this in mind, he has set out a number of strategies and future plans. Firstly, the group has plans to enhance its product development capabilities consistently and increase the size of its R&D team.
Secondly, he also intends to enlarge the product mix, enhance the efficiency of existing production facilities and penetrate overseas markets by setting up sales offices or forming strategic alliances. A Hong Kong marketing team was set up in early 2008 to penetrate the South Asia market.
Thirdly, Z-OBEE will develop a flagship brandname for the sales and marketing of its proprietary handsets.
Trading 65% Below NAV
At its last done price of 5.5 cents, Z-OBEE’s market capitalization was S$27.4 million, which is about 35% of its NAV (15 Singapore cents). It is trading at 2x FY2008 (March YE) earnings.
US$’ million 2007 2008 1Q2009
Revenue 46.3 119.6 37.6
Operating expenses -2.0 -5.8 -1.3
EBITDA 8.7 11.5 3.1
Profit before taxation 9.3 10.9
Net Profit 8.8 10.1 1.9
Number of shares (’million) 409.6 497.6 497.6
NAV 12.7 51.6 53.9
Current Liabilities 3.7 16.8 29.8
Non-current Liabilities 3.6 2.9 2.6
Cash and cash equivalents 4.4 19.1 10.8
Financial Ratios
Debtors turnover (days) 30.7 73.4 --
Stock turnover (days) 21.1 22.8 --
Creditor turnover (days) 3.7 23.6 --
The management guided that there will be minimal capex in 2009/2010. While there are some other developments going on con-currently, the use of additional capex is kept at a minimum. Small cap stocks tend to have high beta in volatile markets. But if there is one small cap which looks like it can withstand this market winter, it is Z-OBEE, which may well turn out to be a winner.
Z-OBEE started off as an investment holding company in September 2002 dealing mainly in procurement and trading of electric components and mobile handsets. It ventured into PCB design solutions in 2004 and by 2006, it was able to provide full-set solutions - from product definition to production support.
To capitalise on the growth of the mobile handset industry, Z-OBEE acquired other design solutions house, Zeus, and established subsidiaries like PhoneLink and CCDH between 2004 and 2006.
Currently, PhoneLink focuses on developing 3G handset solutions while CCHD and Zeus focus on GSM solutions for different IC platforms. To differentiate itself from competitors, Z-OBEE expanded its range of services to offer customers a one-stop service solution, which includes the entire process from design to production of mobile handsets.
In March 2006, a joint venture company, Zhenhua OBEE, was established together with Zhenhua Technology and Full Wealth.
Zhenhua Technology is a licensed mobile handset manufacturer listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Mobile handsets designed by Z-OBEE can be manufactured by the Zhenhua Group and sold under the registered handset brand name of Zhenhua Technology by Z-OBEE’s distribution customers.
To strengthen its capabilities as a one-stop service centre and to improve its cost competitiveness, Tongqing Communication Equipment was established in March 2007 to provide PCBA and the assembly of semi-finished handsets.
Z-OBEE was listed on Singapore Exchange on 21 Nov 2007 at an IPO price of S$0.34, and 129.0m shares were offered, of which 88.0m were new shares and 41.0m vendor shares.
Stock has slumped from 34 cents at IPO about a year ago to 5.5 cents recently.
The NEW Z-OBEE
At the factory, Mr Mao Hong Jian, the Executive Deputy General Manager, gave us a presentation and showed us around. We were told that the new Z-OBEE is a mobile handset solutions house that can provide either full-set solutions service or a specific service at a specific stage, based on customers’ requirements.
Its full-set solutions service comprises the entire handset design cycle, which includes industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support, and assembly of PCBA and completed handsets.
Z-OBEE serves two major groups of customers:
1) Licensed mobile handset manufacturer customers
Z-OBEE provides solutions mainly in the form of ID/MD and PCB Assembly (PCBA) to these customers who procure the hardware components, assemble the handsets and sell them under their brand names.
2) Mobile handset distributor customers
Z-OBEE provides handset designs and also procurement and production support services to distributors who cooperate with licensed mobile handset manufacturers to manufacture and sell their mobile handsets under manufacturers’ brands. Z-OBEE's production facilities are placed in Shenzhen under Tongqing and Zhenhua Obee.
Tongqing
To expand the capacity in providing one-stop solutions, Z-OBEE established Tongqing, a wholly foreign-owned entity in Shenzhen. In the past, Tongqing did not possess a mobile handset manufacturing license and did not engage in the manufacture of finished handsets. Instead, Tongqing engages in providing subcontracted manufacturing services for hardware used in mobile handsets (mainly PCBA) and assembling semi-finished handsets.
As the PRC government has announced the abolishment of the licensing for handset manufacturing business in late 2007, Z-OBEE can provide finished handset assembly services and sell its own brandname handsets.
The factory and office premises of Tongqing are located on a leased premise in Shenzhen, PRC, with a GFA of approximately 7,872 sq m.
Currently, Tongqing has five SMT lines with a total annual capacity of approximately five million pieces of PCBA. The five lines (Fuji brand) were bought last year, each costing USD 1 million. Mr Mao explained that the current utilization rate is around 70%. Tongqing also has five handset assembly lines, which can assemble approximately 2.4 million units of semi-finished handsets per annum. The factory commenced operations in August 2007.
Zhenhua Obee
The group’s joint venture vehicle, Zhenhua Obee, in which Z-OBEE has a 42% shareholding interest, has two SMT lines to carry out PCBA operations with a combined annual capacity of approximately 2.4 million units of PCBA. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are leased to and operated by Zhenhua Communication for a term of three years ending on 30 April 2009 for a monthly rental of RMB 314k. The production facilities of Zhenhua Obee are located in Shenzhen, PRC.
Z-OBEE management is determined to create value for the PRC mobile handset industry. Photo by Mephisto
Large growth potential in the PRC mobile handset industry
China is the world’s largest mobile handset market. According to CCID Consulting, the sales volume in China was 150 million units in 2007 or 24.1% above that of 2006. If black-market mobiles from smuggled, unregistered brands and other illegal products were included, the figure would have exceeded 200 million units.
In addition, over 60% of users changed their mobiles with over 90 million mobiles sold for this purpose. The reasons could be faster function upgrades, higher performance-price ratio, shorter product life cycle, and customized service by the network operators.
The latest report from CCID: Mobile phone sales in China hit a new high of 43.05 million sets or RMB$49b in the first quarter of 2008, up 4.02% YoY and 7.22% QoQ respectively, due mainly to the year-end and Spring Festival promotions launched by mobile phone retailers.
The sales volume is expected to hit 180 million units by the end of the year, representing an expected growth of 20%. Foreign brands gained 65% of the mobile phone market in China in 1Q08, slightly down from 67.5% in the same period of last year. Thus, local players like Z-OBEE have a lot of opportunity to wrestle market share from the foreign brands.
From 2001 to 2007, the number of subscribers grew from 145.2 million to 547.3 million, at a CAGR of 24.7%. In 2007, the number of new subscriber reached a new record in recent years with over 86 million new subscribers. This works out to over seven million new subscribers per month.
The Ministry of Industry and Information recently reported that the number of mobile phone subscribers in China has risen to more than 616 million by Aug 2008, a huge 68.7 million more subscribers than that at the end of 2007. Additionally, the telecom industry produced revenue of RMB$194.1 billion, up 10.8% YoY.
The average number of mobile handsets held by per 100 persons in China is relatively low at 41.6 units (or penetration rate of 41.6%), compared to 80 units held by per 100 persons (penetration rate of 80%) in mature markets. Therefore, many industry players believe there is still great potential for expansion in China, which in turn is likely to increase the demand for mobile handsets.
Business Strategies and Future Plans.
I asked Mr Wang, why he chose to compete in an industry dominated by local and foreign big boys. According to CCID Consulting, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson still dominate the mobile phone market in the world’s fastest growing economy and account for more than 70% of all mobile phones sold there during the first half of this year.
During the first six months, around 295 million mobile phones were produced in China, and the figure is expected to exceed half a billion till the year’s end. Mr Wang replied with a laugh that this was exactly the reason he moved into this market. He has a corporate vision to become a leading mobile handset solutions provider with the brand name “OBEE” that offers services ranging from product definition, solutions design to production support, and to develop Z-OBEE's brandname handsets.
With this in mind, he has set out a number of strategies and future plans. Firstly, the group has plans to enhance its product development capabilities consistently and increase the size of its R&D team.
Secondly, he also intends to enlarge the product mix, enhance the efficiency of existing production facilities and penetrate overseas markets by setting up sales offices or forming strategic alliances. A Hong Kong marketing team was set up in early 2008 to penetrate the South Asia market.
Thirdly, Z-OBEE will develop a flagship brandname for the sales and marketing of its proprietary handsets.
Trading 65% Below NAV
At its last done price of 5.5 cents, Z-OBEE’s market capitalization was S$27.4 million, which is about 35% of its NAV (15 Singapore cents). It is trading at 2x FY2008 (March YE) earnings.
US$’ million 2007 2008 1Q2009
Revenue 46.3 119.6 37.6
Operating expenses -2.0 -5.8 -1.3
EBITDA 8.7 11.5 3.1
Profit before taxation 9.3 10.9
Net Profit 8.8 10.1 1.9
Number of shares (’million) 409.6 497.6 497.6
NAV 12.7 51.6 53.9
Current Liabilities 3.7 16.8 29.8
Non-current Liabilities 3.6 2.9 2.6
Cash and cash equivalents 4.4 19.1 10.8
Financial Ratios
Debtors turnover (days) 30.7 73.4 --
Stock turnover (days) 21.1 22.8 --
Creditor turnover (days) 3.7 23.6 --
The management guided that there will be minimal capex in 2009/2010. While there are some other developments going on con-currently, the use of additional capex is kept at a minimum. Small cap stocks tend to have high beta in volatile markets. But if there is one small cap which looks like it can withstand this market winter, it is Z-OBEE, which may well turn out to be a winner.
BENJAMIN CHAN: "I'm a focused investor"
RECENTLY, PRIOR to a briefing Man Wah Holdings held on its latest financial performance, Benjamin Chan, 42, asked to be allowed to attend. He was not the target audience – that is, analysts and fund managers – but he was a very interested individual as he held a substantial stake of the stock.
In fact, Man Wah, a China-based sofa manufacturer, is the biggest holding in his portfolio. Having gained entry to the briefing at Republic Plaza, Benjamin, an actuary with an international reinsurer, made the most of it by asking question after question – instead of being contented with the 65 per cent jump in net profit which Man Wah had just unveiled for the first quarter of its new financial year ended June 30.
Even after the question-and-answer session ended and attendees started to leave, he was not done yet. Benjamin lingered behind with a few equally interested analysts and fund managers to speak with Man Wah’s finance director, Francis Lee – just so he could understand the business a little better.
It was at that event that I first met Benjamin. The one thing about him which people sooner or later sense is that he is very good with numbers, which in turn suggests that he has some key tools to analyse businesses and pick good stocks.
He says he has been good with numbers since his student days in Hong Kong, where he was born. But his overall academic results were just average and he didn’t secure a place in Hong Kong universities. So, despite not coming from a well-to-do family, he was able to head to New Zealand where, as luck would have it, foreign students paid the same fees as locals of about NZD 1,000 a year.
There, he “learnt to focus on studies and excelled in them. The discipline I developed during university years continue to help me in my actuarial career, which has one of the toughest professional exams in the world.”
Benjamin, a Singaporean citizen for the last 15 years, is married with a son, Bryan, 11, and daughter, Felicia, 13. His wife, Fiona, a Singaporean too, is a senior bank executive. The couple met in New Zealand during their undergraduate days, and now live in a condominium in Upper Bukit Timah.
Q: In this bear market, is your investment portfolio holding up well?
A: It’s down 50% from its peak in Oct 2007, though I still have a high single digit annual return since 2003 when I first moved to the value-investing approach. It is one thing to read about Mr Market (in Intelligent Investor and frequently quoted by Warren Buffett), but it is another thing to truly experience it like what we all are doing now. The emotional roller coaster can be overwhelming in a bear market.
Q: What have you been doing of late in the market? Buying or selling, or just sitting tight?
A: Sitting tight. I am paying particular attention to various companies’ business moats during this difficult time. I am talking about the operating environment the companies are in such as rising costs, the strengthening of yuan hitting export sales, and cut in export tax rebate. It is crucial to differentiate those who can maintain margins in this environment. If they can maintain their margins, there must be a moat around the company. This analysis will help to re-arrange my portfolio.
Q: Dangerous question: When do you think the Singapore market will bottom and start to recover?
A: The Singapore market is influenced by foreign fund movement. So I think it will recover when they come back to the market. I just don’t know when. No one can consistently predict the market. If I had been able to forsee the plunge in share prices, I would have sold all my holdings in Oct 2007!
Ben was born in HK and studied in New Zealand at a time when foreign students paid only NZD1,000 a year.
Q: What are your five key holdings and what percentage do they collectively represent in your portfolio?
A: They are Man Wah Holdings, Hongwei Technologies, Celestial Nutrifoods, Full Apex and Fung Choi Media. They represent 75% of my stock portfolio. You can tell that I am a focused investor!
Q: You are evidently keen on S-chips? Why?
A: It is not S-chips I am after but small caps. It just happens S-chips offer better value in Singapore – that is, they have low price-earnings ratios and high returns on equity. I am looking for multi-baggers and they are typically small caps. Also, over the long run it has been demonstrated that small caps outperform large caps and value investing outperforms other investment styles. As a result, a combination small cap and value should outperform other investment styles.
Having said that, there is a PE discount for China companies listed in SGX vis-a-vis their counterparts in China and Hong Kong. One of the reasons is that S-chips are on average much smaller in size than those in China and HK. This difference of valuation also makes S-chips attractive to me.
Q: When did you start investing and what led you to it?
A: About 10 years ago, my wife and I finished paying off the mortgage on our home. We came to recognise that with a long-term timeframe, investing in stocks is a good way to build up a nest egg. I had invested in unit trusts for a couple of years but eventually I realised that fund managers and unit holders are usually not aligned since most funds are structured with a fixed regular asset charge independent of fund performance.
One can argue that the better the fund performance, the higher the asset value, hence the higher the charge collected, but this is only a secondary effect. The point here is even though unit holders suffer losses, fund managers still take a cut from the assets under management. In addition, unit trusts usually charge large fees and invest in large caps which prevent them from outperforming.
Q: How different is your investment approach now compared with when you started putting money in stocks 10 years ago?
A: When I started, I wasn’t investing but simply speculating, hoping for a quick return. A 5-20% gain for each trade would be satisfying enough, though I wasn’t trading frequently and had never used margin financing for Singapore stocks.
I did use margin financing during the dot-com period via a US Internet trading account but the amount was relatively small. I eventually lost 95% of my capital and learnt a good lesson. Ironically, I didn’t look at fundamentals at all then despite my actuarial training.
I don’t use margin in investing, and have never sold short in Singapore. Debt and patience cannot mix.
Q: Was there any unforgettable experience arising from doing hard research and investing longer term?
A: My first move to value investing was with the stock of Jardine C&C. I accumulated it from 2002 to 2004. This was the first stock whose fundamentals I studied closely and did a lot of research on the Web. During this period, the stock price did not move much even though the fundamentals were improving.
I learnt that Indonesia car sales were increasing every month by checking Yahoo news on Astra every night, and as Astra has half the market, Jardine C&C’s profit result was bound to be good. So I kept adding shares to my holding when I had spare cash. My experience of holding C&C led me to change my investment style to holding a stock beyond a 5-20% gain. In 2005, I sold all when the Indonesian car market started to slow down. By then, my gain was more than 130%! I was very happy as it was a big gain to me in dollar terms at that time.
Ben has made more than 100% gains on MMI and Sembawang Kimtrans in the past.
Q: Sorry to interrupt, but can you give an idea of the gain?
A: Short of $400,000 – well, $386,000 to be exact. I could fully appreciate the inefficiency of the market in the sense that information of C&C fundamentals was there and yet this information was not fully recognised for a long time. The key lesson I learnt was that having the knowledge and information on a stock gives me an advantage in the marketplace.
During this period, I started to read investment books especially classic like Intelligent Investor, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Essays of Warren Buffett. I began to understand that buying stock is like buying a portion of the business.
Q: Since selling Jardine C&C, was there any stock that you made big gains on?
A: There was MMI, which returned 141% and Sembawang Kimtrans, a 131% gain. My top 3 holdings now are Man Wah, Hongwei, and Celestial Nutrifoods - they are the multi-baggers in waiting, I hope. My gain on Celestial Nutrifoods did reach 300% - from 50 cents to $2 - at its peak in 2006 due mainly to PE expansion but I reckoned the price was still below the stock’s intrinsic value then so I didn’t sell. The business has been improving but the price-earnings ratio simply contracted as the market fell.
Q: How, if at all, does your training and work experience as an actuary help in your stock picking?
A: Probabilistic thinking, discount cash flow and long-term thinking are the core components of actuarial science. These are the tools most appropriate for investing. Like Warren Buffett, I don't do exact calculations of intrinsic value using discount cash flow, but roughly I can see a PE of 4-8x is attractive. The very high analytic skills and a sharp and quick mind every actuary has also help in research and analysing companies and business.
Q: Do you invest your wife’s savings as well? Given the financial nature of her work, does she have any investing skills or ideas to chip in?
A: Our savings are pooled. Some are under her name and some are under mine. I do the research and come up with recommendations – but all decisions are agreed jointly.
A very good book on investing.
Q: Earlier you talked about reading investment books. What’s a new solid book that you can recommend?
A: I have read almost all the classic investing books and I think most of the good stuff on investing has already been written. A recent book by Pat Dorsey (The Little Book that Builds Wealth) is a very good one. It focuses on business moats. I think they are the key to investment success and I have to admit that some of my stocks don't have many moats and I plan to let go some when the market turns.
Q: Let’s talk a bit about lifestyle: I guess you would be what is termed a high net-worth investor. Is yours a glittering lifestyle?
A: My lifestyle has not changed much in the last five years. I feel that how much money you have need not affect your lifestyle. My family shop and eat at the same places as before, and, predictable as it sounds, do the same things most Singaporeans do – that is, shop, watch TV and movies, for example. The only big-ticket item is travel, and we usually try to go on one long and one short trip a year.
The only difference is that in the past few years, I have developed a habit of spending one to two hours a night to go through a routine, which is:
- Check company announcements on the SGX website pertaining to my stocks.
- Check announcements for stocks on my watch list.
- Visit news and research websites to find out industry trends for some raw materials, etc.
- Visit some investment blogs and websites, both local and overseas.
- Occasionally do Google searches for information on my stocks.
In fact, Man Wah, a China-based sofa manufacturer, is the biggest holding in his portfolio. Having gained entry to the briefing at Republic Plaza, Benjamin, an actuary with an international reinsurer, made the most of it by asking question after question – instead of being contented with the 65 per cent jump in net profit which Man Wah had just unveiled for the first quarter of its new financial year ended June 30.
Even after the question-and-answer session ended and attendees started to leave, he was not done yet. Benjamin lingered behind with a few equally interested analysts and fund managers to speak with Man Wah’s finance director, Francis Lee – just so he could understand the business a little better.
It was at that event that I first met Benjamin. The one thing about him which people sooner or later sense is that he is very good with numbers, which in turn suggests that he has some key tools to analyse businesses and pick good stocks.
He says he has been good with numbers since his student days in Hong Kong, where he was born. But his overall academic results were just average and he didn’t secure a place in Hong Kong universities. So, despite not coming from a well-to-do family, he was able to head to New Zealand where, as luck would have it, foreign students paid the same fees as locals of about NZD 1,000 a year.
There, he “learnt to focus on studies and excelled in them. The discipline I developed during university years continue to help me in my actuarial career, which has one of the toughest professional exams in the world.”
Benjamin, a Singaporean citizen for the last 15 years, is married with a son, Bryan, 11, and daughter, Felicia, 13. His wife, Fiona, a Singaporean too, is a senior bank executive. The couple met in New Zealand during their undergraduate days, and now live in a condominium in Upper Bukit Timah.
Q: In this bear market, is your investment portfolio holding up well?
A: It’s down 50% from its peak in Oct 2007, though I still have a high single digit annual return since 2003 when I first moved to the value-investing approach. It is one thing to read about Mr Market (in Intelligent Investor and frequently quoted by Warren Buffett), but it is another thing to truly experience it like what we all are doing now. The emotional roller coaster can be overwhelming in a bear market.
Q: What have you been doing of late in the market? Buying or selling, or just sitting tight?
A: Sitting tight. I am paying particular attention to various companies’ business moats during this difficult time. I am talking about the operating environment the companies are in such as rising costs, the strengthening of yuan hitting export sales, and cut in export tax rebate. It is crucial to differentiate those who can maintain margins in this environment. If they can maintain their margins, there must be a moat around the company. This analysis will help to re-arrange my portfolio.
Q: Dangerous question: When do you think the Singapore market will bottom and start to recover?
A: The Singapore market is influenced by foreign fund movement. So I think it will recover when they come back to the market. I just don’t know when. No one can consistently predict the market. If I had been able to forsee the plunge in share prices, I would have sold all my holdings in Oct 2007!
Ben was born in HK and studied in New Zealand at a time when foreign students paid only NZD1,000 a year.
Q: What are your five key holdings and what percentage do they collectively represent in your portfolio?
A: They are Man Wah Holdings, Hongwei Technologies, Celestial Nutrifoods, Full Apex and Fung Choi Media. They represent 75% of my stock portfolio. You can tell that I am a focused investor!
Q: You are evidently keen on S-chips? Why?
A: It is not S-chips I am after but small caps. It just happens S-chips offer better value in Singapore – that is, they have low price-earnings ratios and high returns on equity. I am looking for multi-baggers and they are typically small caps. Also, over the long run it has been demonstrated that small caps outperform large caps and value investing outperforms other investment styles. As a result, a combination small cap and value should outperform other investment styles.
Having said that, there is a PE discount for China companies listed in SGX vis-a-vis their counterparts in China and Hong Kong. One of the reasons is that S-chips are on average much smaller in size than those in China and HK. This difference of valuation also makes S-chips attractive to me.
Q: When did you start investing and what led you to it?
A: About 10 years ago, my wife and I finished paying off the mortgage on our home. We came to recognise that with a long-term timeframe, investing in stocks is a good way to build up a nest egg. I had invested in unit trusts for a couple of years but eventually I realised that fund managers and unit holders are usually not aligned since most funds are structured with a fixed regular asset charge independent of fund performance.
One can argue that the better the fund performance, the higher the asset value, hence the higher the charge collected, but this is only a secondary effect. The point here is even though unit holders suffer losses, fund managers still take a cut from the assets under management. In addition, unit trusts usually charge large fees and invest in large caps which prevent them from outperforming.
Q: How different is your investment approach now compared with when you started putting money in stocks 10 years ago?
A: When I started, I wasn’t investing but simply speculating, hoping for a quick return. A 5-20% gain for each trade would be satisfying enough, though I wasn’t trading frequently and had never used margin financing for Singapore stocks.
I did use margin financing during the dot-com period via a US Internet trading account but the amount was relatively small. I eventually lost 95% of my capital and learnt a good lesson. Ironically, I didn’t look at fundamentals at all then despite my actuarial training.
I don’t use margin in investing, and have never sold short in Singapore. Debt and patience cannot mix.
Q: Was there any unforgettable experience arising from doing hard research and investing longer term?
A: My first move to value investing was with the stock of Jardine C&C. I accumulated it from 2002 to 2004. This was the first stock whose fundamentals I studied closely and did a lot of research on the Web. During this period, the stock price did not move much even though the fundamentals were improving.
I learnt that Indonesia car sales were increasing every month by checking Yahoo news on Astra every night, and as Astra has half the market, Jardine C&C’s profit result was bound to be good. So I kept adding shares to my holding when I had spare cash. My experience of holding C&C led me to change my investment style to holding a stock beyond a 5-20% gain. In 2005, I sold all when the Indonesian car market started to slow down. By then, my gain was more than 130%! I was very happy as it was a big gain to me in dollar terms at that time.
Ben has made more than 100% gains on MMI and Sembawang Kimtrans in the past.
Q: Sorry to interrupt, but can you give an idea of the gain?
A: Short of $400,000 – well, $386,000 to be exact. I could fully appreciate the inefficiency of the market in the sense that information of C&C fundamentals was there and yet this information was not fully recognised for a long time. The key lesson I learnt was that having the knowledge and information on a stock gives me an advantage in the marketplace.
During this period, I started to read investment books especially classic like Intelligent Investor, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Essays of Warren Buffett. I began to understand that buying stock is like buying a portion of the business.
Q: Since selling Jardine C&C, was there any stock that you made big gains on?
A: There was MMI, which returned 141% and Sembawang Kimtrans, a 131% gain. My top 3 holdings now are Man Wah, Hongwei, and Celestial Nutrifoods - they are the multi-baggers in waiting, I hope. My gain on Celestial Nutrifoods did reach 300% - from 50 cents to $2 - at its peak in 2006 due mainly to PE expansion but I reckoned the price was still below the stock’s intrinsic value then so I didn’t sell. The business has been improving but the price-earnings ratio simply contracted as the market fell.
Q: How, if at all, does your training and work experience as an actuary help in your stock picking?
A: Probabilistic thinking, discount cash flow and long-term thinking are the core components of actuarial science. These are the tools most appropriate for investing. Like Warren Buffett, I don't do exact calculations of intrinsic value using discount cash flow, but roughly I can see a PE of 4-8x is attractive. The very high analytic skills and a sharp and quick mind every actuary has also help in research and analysing companies and business.
Q: Do you invest your wife’s savings as well? Given the financial nature of her work, does she have any investing skills or ideas to chip in?
A: Our savings are pooled. Some are under her name and some are under mine. I do the research and come up with recommendations – but all decisions are agreed jointly.
A very good book on investing.
Q: Earlier you talked about reading investment books. What’s a new solid book that you can recommend?
A: I have read almost all the classic investing books and I think most of the good stuff on investing has already been written. A recent book by Pat Dorsey (The Little Book that Builds Wealth) is a very good one. It focuses on business moats. I think they are the key to investment success and I have to admit that some of my stocks don't have many moats and I plan to let go some when the market turns.
Q: Let’s talk a bit about lifestyle: I guess you would be what is termed a high net-worth investor. Is yours a glittering lifestyle?
A: My lifestyle has not changed much in the last five years. I feel that how much money you have need not affect your lifestyle. My family shop and eat at the same places as before, and, predictable as it sounds, do the same things most Singaporeans do – that is, shop, watch TV and movies, for example. The only big-ticket item is travel, and we usually try to go on one long and one short trip a year.
The only difference is that in the past few years, I have developed a habit of spending one to two hours a night to go through a routine, which is:
- Check company announcements on the SGX website pertaining to my stocks.
- Check announcements for stocks on my watch list.
- Visit news and research websites to find out industry trends for some raw materials, etc.
- Visit some investment blogs and websites, both local and overseas.
- Occasionally do Google searches for information on my stocks.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Obama: Economy 'a big problem, and it's going to get worse'
President-elect Barack Obama braced the country for more tough times Sunday, saying twice in an interview that the nation’s already dismal economy would continue to worsen in the months ahead.
Obama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” used some of his starkest language yet to underscore the severity of the challenge he’ll face upon taking office next month.
“If you look at the unemployment numbers that came out yesterday, if you think about almost 2 million jobs lost so far, if you think about the fragility of the financial system and the fact that it is now a global financial system so that what happens in Thailand or Russia can have an impact here, and obviously what happens on Wall Street has an impact worldwide, when you think about the structural problems that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis, this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse,” he said in the interview taped Saturday.
Later in the interview Obama reiterated his downbeat projection, saying, “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Obama’s assessment, offered with an eye toward lowering the already considerable expectations on his shoulders, comes two days after the worst monthly job losses in over three decades, and a day after he proposed a series of ways to marry job-creation with infrastructure improvements in the forthcoming economic stimulus package.
In the wide-ranging appearance, Obama once again gave strong indications that he’s backing off his stance on two key campaign pledges – whether to repeal President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, and his call for bringing U.S. combat troops home from Iraq in 16 months. On a lighter note, he sketched a vision of an Obama White House alive with cultural and musical events, saying he hoped to include children from local Washington, D.C., schools.
But the economy dominated the discussion. Obama, who has been largely restrained from leveling political criticism during the transition period, took shots at Congress and the current administration for their handling of the crisis.
He told Brokaw that decisions based on where to focus infrastructure improvements would be based on merit, and “not in the old, traditional politics-first way.”
In an unambiguous brush-back to his former colleagues Obama said, “You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over.”
And after weeks of public magnanimity toward the Bush administration and much cooperation between the outgoing and incoming economic teams, Obama expressed irritation at what he described as a lack of urgency on the part of the incumbent about offering mortgage assistance to struggling homeowners.
“I'm disappointed that we haven't seen quicker movement on this issue by the administration,” Obama said. “We have said publicly and privately that we want to see a package that helps homeowners not just because it's good for that particular homeowner; it's good for the community.’
But pressed by Brokaw if he or his advisers had conveyed their unhappiness on the mortgage question to the Bush administration, Obama dodged. “We have specifically said that moving forward we have to have a housing component to any actions that we take. If we are only dealing with Wall Street and we're not dealing with Main Street, then we're only handling one half of the problem,” he said.
Obama also wouldn’t delve too deeply into the woes of the automakers, or answer specifically if they should be given government oversight, but did make clear he wanted to see financial assistance to the Big Three tied to reforms.
“They're going to have to restructure, and all their stakeholders are going to have to restructure—labor, management, shareholders, creditors—everybody is going to recognize that they have—they do not have a sustainable business model right now,” Obama said. “And if they expect taxpayers to help in that adjustment process, then they can't keep on putting off the kinds of changes that they frankly should have made 20 or 30 years ago. If they want to survive, then they better start building a fuel-efficient car. And if they want to survive, they've got to recognize that the auto market is not going to be as large as some of their rosy scenarios that they put forward over the last several years.”
On taxes, the president-elect suggested he would avoid any increases in the near term. He rejected the prospect of putting a fuel surcharge on falling gas prices to fund alternative energy, saying that “putting additional burdens on American families right now, I think, is a mistake.”
And he signaled that his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich may be put off, something his economic advisers have been saying quietly for weeks.
“My economic team right now is examining -- do we repeal that through legislation?” Obama said of the Bush tax cuts for those Americans making over $250,000 per year. “Do we let it lapse so that, when the Bush tax cuts expire, they're not renewed when it comes to wealthiest Americans?”
Obama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” used some of his starkest language yet to underscore the severity of the challenge he’ll face upon taking office next month.
“If you look at the unemployment numbers that came out yesterday, if you think about almost 2 million jobs lost so far, if you think about the fragility of the financial system and the fact that it is now a global financial system so that what happens in Thailand or Russia can have an impact here, and obviously what happens on Wall Street has an impact worldwide, when you think about the structural problems that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis, this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse,” he said in the interview taped Saturday.
Later in the interview Obama reiterated his downbeat projection, saying, “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Obama’s assessment, offered with an eye toward lowering the already considerable expectations on his shoulders, comes two days after the worst monthly job losses in over three decades, and a day after he proposed a series of ways to marry job-creation with infrastructure improvements in the forthcoming economic stimulus package.
In the wide-ranging appearance, Obama once again gave strong indications that he’s backing off his stance on two key campaign pledges – whether to repeal President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the rich, and his call for bringing U.S. combat troops home from Iraq in 16 months. On a lighter note, he sketched a vision of an Obama White House alive with cultural and musical events, saying he hoped to include children from local Washington, D.C., schools.
But the economy dominated the discussion. Obama, who has been largely restrained from leveling political criticism during the transition period, took shots at Congress and the current administration for their handling of the crisis.
He told Brokaw that decisions based on where to focus infrastructure improvements would be based on merit, and “not in the old, traditional politics-first way.”
In an unambiguous brush-back to his former colleagues Obama said, “You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over.”
And after weeks of public magnanimity toward the Bush administration and much cooperation between the outgoing and incoming economic teams, Obama expressed irritation at what he described as a lack of urgency on the part of the incumbent about offering mortgage assistance to struggling homeowners.
“I'm disappointed that we haven't seen quicker movement on this issue by the administration,” Obama said. “We have said publicly and privately that we want to see a package that helps homeowners not just because it's good for that particular homeowner; it's good for the community.’
But pressed by Brokaw if he or his advisers had conveyed their unhappiness on the mortgage question to the Bush administration, Obama dodged. “We have specifically said that moving forward we have to have a housing component to any actions that we take. If we are only dealing with Wall Street and we're not dealing with Main Street, then we're only handling one half of the problem,” he said.
Obama also wouldn’t delve too deeply into the woes of the automakers, or answer specifically if they should be given government oversight, but did make clear he wanted to see financial assistance to the Big Three tied to reforms.
“They're going to have to restructure, and all their stakeholders are going to have to restructure—labor, management, shareholders, creditors—everybody is going to recognize that they have—they do not have a sustainable business model right now,” Obama said. “And if they expect taxpayers to help in that adjustment process, then they can't keep on putting off the kinds of changes that they frankly should have made 20 or 30 years ago. If they want to survive, then they better start building a fuel-efficient car. And if they want to survive, they've got to recognize that the auto market is not going to be as large as some of their rosy scenarios that they put forward over the last several years.”
On taxes, the president-elect suggested he would avoid any increases in the near term. He rejected the prospect of putting a fuel surcharge on falling gas prices to fund alternative energy, saying that “putting additional burdens on American families right now, I think, is a mistake.”
And he signaled that his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich may be put off, something his economic advisers have been saying quietly for weeks.
“My economic team right now is examining -- do we repeal that through legislation?” Obama said of the Bush tax cuts for those Americans making over $250,000 per year. “Do we let it lapse so that, when the Bush tax cuts expire, they're not renewed when it comes to wealthiest Americans?”
Friday, December 5, 2008
当知更鸟出现时
“如果你要等到知更鸟报春，春天都快过去了。”
在金融海啸蹂躝下，全球股市，疮痍满目，令人不忍卒睹。
到底股市何时才跌到谷底？什么时候才是最好的买进时机？
许多人都想知道此类问题的答案。
许多分析家和股票研究机构，都企图寻找答案。
这类的文章太多了，而且似乎都言之成理，看得多了，反而使人眼花缭乱，无所适从。
在我所读过的文章中，股神巴菲特10月17日在纽约时报发表的“我买美国（的前途）”，是我认为最精彩的一篇。
“股神”沃伦·巴菲特在《纽约时报》上的一篇评论中说，现在是美股抄底的好时机。
巴菲特此前就美股顶底发出过3次声音，最近一次是1999年11月网络泡沫膨胀时。从历史经验看，巴菲特对顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。正如他自己强调的那样：“我无法预测股市的短期走势。”
“我一直在买”
“我一直在购买美国股票。”巴菲特在上述评论中说，他的个人账户以前只买美国政府债券，而现在如果股价继续有吸引力，他所有非伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的净资产将全部用于购买美股。
巴菲特最近数次逆市购买美国企业股票：9月23日，宣布通过购买股权方式向高盛注资50亿美元；10月1日宣布，将斥资30亿美元，通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认购通用电气优先股。
巴菲特把购买美股的原因简单归为一个原则：当别人贪婪时胆怯，当别人胆怯时贪婪。他乐观预期，尽管美国许多优秀企业会有短期利润波动，但大多数大公司从现在开始5年、10年和20年内赢利水平会不断创新高。
他列举了一系列历史事实说明，在市场情绪或经济都转好之前，股票市场就会大涨。今年标普500指数已下跌36%，道琼斯指数4年来第一次跌破10000点。“坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，它可以让你以很低的市场价格分享到美国未来的一杯羹。”巴菲特说。
巴菲特警告持现金等价物的人们，政府当前处理危机的政策可能会导致通胀、加速现金账户贬值。“今后10年内优先股表现很大程度上将超过现金。”
市场反响
投资者似乎遵从了“股神”的意见，道琼斯指数当天下午“应声”上涨近3%，但最终还是在抛盘打压下收损。《永恒的价值：沃伦·巴菲特的故事》作者安德鲁·帕特里克表示，巴菲特说的是长期看好，这就是他的经典之处。
据《福布斯》杂志最新排名，巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。作为投资大师，他的一举一动似乎都对投资市场有风向标的作用，有人把这称为“巴菲特效应”。
CNBC的调查显示，68%的投资者表示会追随巴菲特抄底，32%的人则拒绝“股神”的建议。
新泽西州的罗伯特·努斯鲍姆指出，大多数美国人并不认为他们有足够剩余资产，能在看到投资回报前的15~20年把钱都“封存”在股市里。“我们需要安全网确保我们的钱袋顺利度过这段艰难时期。”他说，对大多数人来说，巴菲特的建议给得太少、太晚。
《雪球：巴菲特和他的商业生命》作者爱丽丝·施罗德说，巴菲特喜欢为人师，世界上越来越多的人也接受了他的观点。他这样做的意图不是为了改变市场进程，只是想告诉那些开明和愿意接受意见的人他们需要知道的东西，以便于采取行动。
《纽约时报》的一位读者回信说：“我不知道股市会对巴菲特的言论如何反应，但他请求我们重视历史的教训，并继续对美国保持忠诚和自信。这体现了近期政治领导人缺乏的品质：领袖魅力。”
在金融海啸蹂躝下，全球股市，疮痍满目，令人不忍卒睹。
到底股市何时才跌到谷底？什么时候才是最好的买进时机？
许多人都想知道此类问题的答案。
许多分析家和股票研究机构，都企图寻找答案。
这类的文章太多了，而且似乎都言之成理，看得多了，反而使人眼花缭乱，无所适从。
在我所读过的文章中，股神巴菲特10月17日在纽约时报发表的“我买美国（的前途）”，是我认为最精彩的一篇。
“股神”沃伦·巴菲特在《纽约时报》上的一篇评论中说，现在是美股抄底的好时机。
巴菲特此前就美股顶底发出过3次声音，最近一次是1999年11月网络泡沫膨胀时。从历史经验看，巴菲特对顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。正如他自己强调的那样：“我无法预测股市的短期走势。”
“我一直在买”
“我一直在购买美国股票。”巴菲特在上述评论中说，他的个人账户以前只买美国政府债券，而现在如果股价继续有吸引力，他所有非伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的净资产将全部用于购买美股。
巴菲特最近数次逆市购买美国企业股票：9月23日，宣布通过购买股权方式向高盛注资50亿美元；10月1日宣布，将斥资30亿美元，通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认购通用电气优先股。
巴菲特把购买美股的原因简单归为一个原则：当别人贪婪时胆怯，当别人胆怯时贪婪。他乐观预期，尽管美国许多优秀企业会有短期利润波动，但大多数大公司从现在开始5年、10年和20年内赢利水平会不断创新高。
他列举了一系列历史事实说明，在市场情绪或经济都转好之前，股票市场就会大涨。今年标普500指数已下跌36%，道琼斯指数4年来第一次跌破10000点。“坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，它可以让你以很低的市场价格分享到美国未来的一杯羹。”巴菲特说。
巴菲特警告持现金等价物的人们，政府当前处理危机的政策可能会导致通胀、加速现金账户贬值。“今后10年内优先股表现很大程度上将超过现金。”
市场反响
投资者似乎遵从了“股神”的意见，道琼斯指数当天下午“应声”上涨近3%，但最终还是在抛盘打压下收损。《永恒的价值：沃伦·巴菲特的故事》作者安德鲁·帕特里克表示，巴菲特说的是长期看好，这就是他的经典之处。
据《福布斯》杂志最新排名，巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。作为投资大师，他的一举一动似乎都对投资市场有风向标的作用，有人把这称为“巴菲特效应”。
CNBC的调查显示，68%的投资者表示会追随巴菲特抄底，32%的人则拒绝“股神”的建议。
新泽西州的罗伯特·努斯鲍姆指出，大多数美国人并不认为他们有足够剩余资产，能在看到投资回报前的15~20年把钱都“封存”在股市里。“我们需要安全网确保我们的钱袋顺利度过这段艰难时期。”他说，对大多数人来说，巴菲特的建议给得太少、太晚。
《雪球：巴菲特和他的商业生命》作者爱丽丝·施罗德说，巴菲特喜欢为人师，世界上越来越多的人也接受了他的观点。他这样做的意图不是为了改变市场进程，只是想告诉那些开明和愿意接受意见的人他们需要知道的东西，以便于采取行动。
《纽约时报》的一位读者回信说：“我不知道股市会对巴菲特的言论如何反应，但他请求我们重视历史的教训，并继续对美国保持忠诚和自信。这体现了近期政治领导人缺乏的品质：领袖魅力。”
曾渊沧@股友通讯录 十二月
上一次的通讯中，我告诉大家10 月28 日当海峡时报指数跌至1473 点时，已跌至《曾氏通道》的95%悲观线。过去10年，每逢海峡时报指数对数跌至《曾氏通道》的95%悲观线时，熊市就恰恰好结束；那是1998年，2003年。同样的，升破《曾氏通道》的95%乐观线时，牛事也恰恰好结束；那是1997年，2000年，及2007年。也因此，去年年底我很大胆地出版一本书，书名是《迎战转势》，告诉所有的人，牛市结束了。
从10月28日至今，海峡时报指数反弹了，但依然起起落落，波幅很大，投资者依然很担心，人人都说明年经济会更差。看淡经济，自然看淡股市。但是，我想告诉你：你知不知道，2003年海峡时报指数在甚麽时候见底回升？原来是2003年3月11日，当时海峡时报跌至1205点，之后就再也没有跌破这个低点。
还记得2003年的3月是什麽日子，那是SARS 刚刚暴发期，人人都慌得很，4月份SARS的高峰期时，新加坡有如鬼城，人人都对前景非常悲观。但是，股市却已度过最低潮的日子，一个新牛市开始了。
股市的确是很奇妙，往往在经济仍然暗淡的时候，已经见底回升，在人人兴高采烈，庆祝经济蓬勃发展时见顶回落。2003年至2007年是我投资史中最丰收的4 年，累积了目前足以轻松过下半辈子的财富。今日，我是属於已经《上了岸》的人，无复当年之勇。1998 年与2003年，我是奋身而入，将所有可以动用的现金一次过全投入股市。现在，《上了岸》的心态使我依然保有适量现金及适量股票，再加上房地产，维持一个比较平衡的资产分配。不过，如果你仍然年轻，手上的现金属於丢到海里都无所谓的话，胆子不妨大一些。记住，机会不是经常
有。但更要记住，入市的心态一定得是长期投资。
我的所谓长期投资是至少3年。现在，许多人都在批评，讥笑以长期投资出名的股神巴菲特。这些人在3个月前想捞底入市，结果股价一跌再跌，持货3 个月亏了一大截，就大骂长期投资，害人不浅。这是错误的。3个月，甚至一年，两年都不是长期投资；你知道吗，巴菲特手上的股票，平均持有时间是17年，这才叫做长期投资。
还有，长期投资者的入市时间也很重要，不是要你在海指3800 点时入市搞长期投资，不是要你在海指由高位下跌半年之后就入市捞底不成然后被逼长线投资。过去一年，当股市由最高位下跌时，我不断地说，熊市最短是一年，在一年之内都只能短炒博反弹，不是什麽长线投资的机会。 长线投资只应该在海峡时报指数跌穿《曾氏通道》的底线，平均P/E不足10倍才出手。
从10月28日至今，海峡时报指数反弹了，但依然起起落落，波幅很大，投资者依然很担心，人人都说明年经济会更差。看淡经济，自然看淡股市。但是，我想告诉你：你知不知道，2003年海峡时报指数在甚麽时候见底回升？原来是2003年3月11日，当时海峡时报跌至1205点，之后就再也没有跌破这个低点。
还记得2003年的3月是什麽日子，那是SARS 刚刚暴发期，人人都慌得很，4月份SARS的高峰期时，新加坡有如鬼城，人人都对前景非常悲观。但是，股市却已度过最低潮的日子，一个新牛市开始了。
股市的确是很奇妙，往往在经济仍然暗淡的时候，已经见底回升，在人人兴高采烈，庆祝经济蓬勃发展时见顶回落。2003年至2007年是我投资史中最丰收的4 年，累积了目前足以轻松过下半辈子的财富。今日，我是属於已经《上了岸》的人，无复当年之勇。1998 年与2003年，我是奋身而入，将所有可以动用的现金一次过全投入股市。现在，《上了岸》的心态使我依然保有适量现金及适量股票，再加上房地产，维持一个比较平衡的资产分配。不过，如果你仍然年轻，手上的现金属於丢到海里都无所谓的话，胆子不妨大一些。记住，机会不是经常
有。但更要记住，入市的心态一定得是长期投资。
我的所谓长期投资是至少3年。现在，许多人都在批评，讥笑以长期投资出名的股神巴菲特。这些人在3个月前想捞底入市，结果股价一跌再跌，持货3 个月亏了一大截，就大骂长期投资，害人不浅。这是错误的。3个月，甚至一年，两年都不是长期投资；你知道吗，巴菲特手上的股票，平均持有时间是17年，这才叫做长期投资。
还有，长期投资者的入市时间也很重要，不是要你在海指3800 点时入市搞长期投资，不是要你在海指由高位下跌半年之后就入市捞底不成然后被逼长线投资。过去一年，当股市由最高位下跌时，我不断地说，熊市最短是一年，在一年之内都只能短炒博反弹，不是什麽长线投资的机会。 长线投资只应该在海峡时报指数跌穿《曾氏通道》的底线，平均P/E不足10倍才出手。
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