最近几个星期一定让许多投资者备感煎熬，一边是全球股市的阴晴不定，时而暴涨时而暴跌；一边是不断创出新低的股票和基金，而巴菲特两周前吹响的号角言犹在耳。
能不能抄底，底在哪，一个投资者如果计较于这些问题的真正答案，那几乎是个不可能完成的任务，"大部分投资者一生都沉迷于'猜顶和探底'的游戏，这也就是为什么大部分投资者终其一生都没有跨越财富自由的门槛"。
在普通投资者看来是 "抄底"的举动在巴菲特看来其实是在适当的时候"出手"，他坦言抄底不是他强项。从历史上数次"抄底"来看，巴菲特是一个左侧交易者，他对于底部的判断有时要比市场早半年。
每每在"抄底"时机问题上，从1974年10月第一次预测股市到现在，巴老的回答始终朴素而诙谐，巴菲特在1974年接受《福布斯》采访时说："我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业，这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上，投手扔来了47美元的通用股票、39美元的美国钢铁公司股票！没有惩罚，只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球，然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候，大迈一步将球击向空中。"那时，道琼斯指数只有580点。
今年10月17日的回答一样充满巴菲特式的幽默与智慧，"我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在一个月或一年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。但有一种可能，即在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前，股市会上涨，而且可能是大涨。因此，如果你想等到知更鸟报春，那春天就快结束了。"
每到华尔街凄风惨雨的时候，人们总是盼望着听到巴菲特的声音，每到巴菲特慷慨的告诉大家是时候买股票了，人们又满腹狐疑，甚至还有些人暗地里为巴菲特计算着浮亏。
我们何必执着于巴菲特的预言是否能在一周或一个月里实现？如果这样巴菲特就不是股神了，而是占卜先生了。底部是一个区间，不是一个精准的点，且对于具体的每一个股票而言又情况各异。无数投资经历证明，一生只要把握住几个大的趋势，哪怕只是一两个，就会很不同了。
Monday, November 17, 2008
真正的股神一直就是这样神
异常罕见的金融危机席卷全球。美股一片重挫暴跌。
悲观绝望中，不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而，最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元，击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的，而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间，这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值，资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观，总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手，投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后，股票价格仍然继续下跌，就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样，又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此，原来也是个看不准确具体大势的，原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作，人们确实能够发现，在其买进的八成以上的股票，都是主动买套型的操作，包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等，乃至，离我们最近的中国石油H股，它所带给巴菲特的，也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念，他成为了世界首富，
他的每一笔买进，是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行，而他每一次的卖出，都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的，就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候，人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜，以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字，以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们，或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧，他们长年累月地忙着著书立传，五湖四海招收学徒弟子，一边讲的是满口仁义道德，一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两，而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业，老人家还立下遗嘱，把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神，更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模，股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师，不要吝啬，我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人，更多的，我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛，读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音，顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
悲观绝望中，不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而，最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元，击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的，而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间，这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值，资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观，总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手，投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后，股票价格仍然继续下跌，就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样，又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此，原来也是个看不准确具体大势的，原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作，人们确实能够发现，在其买进的八成以上的股票，都是主动买套型的操作，包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等，乃至，离我们最近的中国石油H股，它所带给巴菲特的，也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念，他成为了世界首富，
他的每一笔买进，是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行，而他每一次的卖出，都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的，就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候，人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜，以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字，以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们，或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧，他们长年累月地忙着著书立传，五湖四海招收学徒弟子，一边讲的是满口仁义道德，一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两，而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业，老人家还立下遗嘱，把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神，更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模，股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师，不要吝啬，我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人，更多的，我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛，读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音，顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
金融股票是不能沾的
中国的金融股票，是股市里面的大头，也是大盘主要的指标，被贴上了蓝筹的标签，很多害怕风险的人，均喜欢这些股票，持有这些股票的人，一般也是长线和价值投资的爱好者，但是本人认为这些股票在近几年内是不能沾的。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻，我们的几大银行上市，都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票，市值超过万亿，而他们取得股票的成本非常低，即使在股市这样低迷的今天，他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益，而这些持有股票的境外金融机构，在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重，均在破产的边缘挣扎，在这样的背景下，这些股票解禁，他们能够不疯狂抛售吗？而他们的三年锁定期，明年就会到期了，因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多，政府会救市买入，但是事情若果真如此，那就是国家的悲哀了，拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子，本身就很腌臜，而这样的做法，还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备，而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备，本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多，这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资，届时迅速变现是有困难的，而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月，大家想一下工行、中行何时上市，就该明白，这些金融股的小非抛售，会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期，因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济，利息高企，财务成本必将不可负担，就拿铁路投资为例，每年要有1000多亿的投资利息，这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润，因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略，而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率，降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入，所以以后的数年，金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题，我们的金融业也损失巨大，但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为，不允许提列大比例的损失准备金，所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上，真实性不够好，比国际上要滞后很多，随着危机的加剧，以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失，国际金融操作的损失，国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会，似乎要给金融股票带来利好，但是我认为无论是怎样的利好，都是诱多，这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金，但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说，都只能算作是诱饵，近几年的金融股票，本人认为是绝对不能沾的，因为这是赌博，你赌不赢庄家的，对于长线和价值投资的人，更是如此。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻，我们的几大银行上市，都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票，市值超过万亿，而他们取得股票的成本非常低，即使在股市这样低迷的今天，他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益，而这些持有股票的境外金融机构，在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重，均在破产的边缘挣扎，在这样的背景下，这些股票解禁，他们能够不疯狂抛售吗？而他们的三年锁定期，明年就会到期了，因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多，政府会救市买入，但是事情若果真如此，那就是国家的悲哀了，拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子，本身就很腌臜，而这样的做法，还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备，而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备，本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多，这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资，届时迅速变现是有困难的，而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月，大家想一下工行、中行何时上市，就该明白，这些金融股的小非抛售，会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期，因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济，利息高企，财务成本必将不可负担，就拿铁路投资为例，每年要有1000多亿的投资利息，这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润，因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略，而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率，降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入，所以以后的数年，金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题，我们的金融业也损失巨大，但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为，不允许提列大比例的损失准备金，所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上，真实性不够好，比国际上要滞后很多，随着危机的加剧，以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失，国际金融操作的损失，国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会，似乎要给金融股票带来利好，但是我认为无论是怎样的利好，都是诱多，这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金，但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说，都只能算作是诱饵，近几年的金融股票，本人认为是绝对不能沾的，因为这是赌博，你赌不赢庄家的，对于长线和价值投资的人，更是如此。
Saturday, November 15, 2008
华侨投资研究主管：股市明年下半年才会反弹
尽管海指已跌到相当低的水平，极不稳定的市场情绪料将继续把股市保持在目前的低水平，直到明年下半年才“柳暗花明”，并吸引买家进场。
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计，本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平，最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场，出现300至400点的回弹。
她说：“（本地股价）本益比已跌至8到9倍，与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱，各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场，海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了，也许最多再下跌100至150点，在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场，然后大力回弹300至400点。不过，在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市，她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”：第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上，如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等，构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股，包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等，其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”，则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票，如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”，也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出，美国联储局大幅减息，导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面，近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软，直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说：“届时，英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止，坏消息的出炉势头回稳，亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了，市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升，实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1％，但前提是美国经济不会再度出错，以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况，要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说：“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长，而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复，但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案，她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样，着重于投资在基础建设项目上，“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业，林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说：“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在，比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划，许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下，我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计，本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平，最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场，出现300至400点的回弹。
她说：“（本地股价）本益比已跌至8到9倍，与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱，各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场，海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了，也许最多再下跌100至150点，在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场，然后大力回弹300至400点。不过，在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市，她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”：第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上，如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等，构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股，包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等，其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”，则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票，如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”，也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出，美国联储局大幅减息，导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面，近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软，直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说：“届时，英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止，坏消息的出炉势头回稳，亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了，市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升，实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1％，但前提是美国经济不会再度出错，以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况，要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说：“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长，而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复，但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案，她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样，着重于投资在基础建设项目上，“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业，林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说：“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在，比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划，许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下，我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
Second Chance Properties
Co announced their 3Q08 results
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Second Chance an undiscovered property play
ONE of the more interesting corporate developments over the past few weeks may have gone unnoticed by most investors - an offer to listed retail-cum-property group Second Chance Properties (SCP) to buy the company's entire property portfolio.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
DIVIDEND STOCKS: Good for bear markets
DIVIDEND STOCKS may sound like a boring option to investors. But as uncertainty clouds over the stock market, they may prove useful after all.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Second Chance Properties Ltd
Fundamentals
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
Volume 248.0K
50 Days Average Volume 128
100 Days Average Volume 117
200 Days Average Volume 146
Average Price 0.34
Technical
Relative Price Strength -54.02
Moving Average (50) 0.27
Moving Average (100) 0.32
Moving Average (300) 0.38
RSI (14) 44.27
Beta (Weekly) 0.69
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
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SECOND CHANCE PROPERTIES: Dividend yields of 8-9%
ONE OF the most enterprising and wealthiest Malay businessmen in Singapore is Mr Mohd Salleh Marican, 58, who has a net worth of around $125 million just based on his stake in listed companies.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
学习巴菲特不如走在巴菲特的身后
作为世界股神，巴菲特的言行总是格外引人注目。如近期巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资就举世瞩目。而上周五巴菲特发表在《纽约时报》上唱多的文章，时下更是成为投资者谈论的热门话题。面对巴菲特的做多唱多，要不要追随着巴菲特的脚步一起做多股市也就成了一些投资者必须面对的问题。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神，当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上，巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点，作为中国股市的投资者来说，巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程，已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度，如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了，可以肯定，站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为，巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特，作为一般的投资者，甚至就是国内的机构投资者（如投资基金），都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的，而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月，甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久，巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股；随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里，中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏，巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复，但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法，是一般的投资者所做不到的，投资基金面临着赚钱的压力，更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资，这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股，其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股，即便是两家公司破产了，巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好，巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内，以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来，一旦5年内股市行情走好，巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资，一般的投资者显然没有这种机会，而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且，巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买，使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说： “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力，我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多，并不等同于抄底，巴菲特自己也坦言： “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限，要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此，同样的投资，巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明，但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此，学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特，还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则，并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大，这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以，投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的，涨要涨过头，跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处，就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神，当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上，巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点，作为中国股市的投资者来说，巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程，已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度，如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了，可以肯定，站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为，巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特，作为一般的投资者，甚至就是国内的机构投资者（如投资基金），都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的，而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月，甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久，巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股；随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里，中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏，巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复，但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法，是一般的投资者所做不到的，投资基金面临着赚钱的压力，更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资，这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股，其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股，即便是两家公司破产了，巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好，巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内，以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来，一旦5年内股市行情走好，巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资，一般的投资者显然没有这种机会，而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且，巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买，使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说： “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力，我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多，并不等同于抄底，巴菲特自己也坦言： “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动，对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限，要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此，同样的投资，巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明，但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此，学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特，还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则，并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大，这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以，投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的，涨要涨过头，跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处，就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
学习巴菲特
首先，我们来了解一下巴菲特每天看什么。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了，痴迷到什么程度了呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票，大家把心都用在炒股上面，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。
我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天，当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，基金经理是彼得·林奇，他专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员，打了招呼，然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看，房间不大，只有二十多平方米，左边是一排书架，上面有几本书，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。"哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？"巴菲特一笑说："我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头："真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。"你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：A买什么股票；B买入价格。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢？那还用问吗，当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火，大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了，痴迷到什么程度了呢？有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说：有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情，竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年，他们一天到晚上网，打游戏，几天几夜不上学，也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾，他们一天到晚看行情，甚至几分钟都要看一下行情，看不到行情就着急，股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大，因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说：现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票，大家把心都用在炒股上面，经理的大办公室那是大户室，一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户，尽量不出差，以免看不到行情，做不成股票。
我们大部分散户，只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金，就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金，他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢？
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天，当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金，基金经理是彼得·林奇，他专程去拜访巴菲特，想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现，巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街，而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈，人口只有40万人，相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是，巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多，但公司总部员工却少得多，只有11个员工。要知道，在世界500强企业排名上，巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员，打了招呼，然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看，房间不大，只有二十多平方米，左边是一排书架，上面有几本书，右边是几个文件柜，装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看，右看看，上看看，下看看，越看，越纳闷。"哎，巴菲特先生，你的办公室里怎么没有电脑，难道你不看行情吗？"巴菲特一笑说："我从来不关心股价走势，没有必要关心，而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头："真没想到，你管理着上千亿美元资金，竟然根本不用电脑，根本不看行情。"你肯定会问：那巴菲特要买卖股票时，他总得看股价吧？巴菲特当然看股价，只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情，他看准一只股票后，会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少，直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价，而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金，却一天到晚不看股票行情呢？
其实，看得越紧，反而表明你越不放心，越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着，肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着，肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价，原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票，放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票，包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：A买什么股票；B买入价格。
Thursday, November 13, 2008
擇肥而噬 長線持有
長線投資是否賺錢的保證，「傳統智慧」提供肯定性答案，可是，別和股票談戀愛（遑論結婚）的說法亦有很多信徒，特別是大熊市的時候─當然反對者也大有人在，他們會說畢非德和他的「愛股」不是長廝守白頭偕老而大有斬獲嗎？此雖為「孤例」，卻足以推翻前說。筆者向來傾向後者，惟劍橋大學克萊爾書院本月初作出一項以40年為期的投資（將近半世紀，「長期」是沒問題的），令筆者有新的想法。
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院，因其捐款者狄．克萊爾夫人（Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360）而得名，她為英皇愛德華一世（1239-1307）的孫女，三嫁，當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後，只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」，「從婚姻市場淡出」，此後終生從事慈善事業，劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中，克萊爾無論從校舍、花園（草坪）及學生人數（去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名），都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營，克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊，不算富裕，其基金管理手法，則以保守穩健名於時（劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊，克萊爾並無損失），基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議（市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議），其資金分配是股票（主要是指數基金；長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道，見3月12日本欄的分析）佔七成、地產（主要是店舖）為三成，不過，隨市場變化，此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」，是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候，毅然「清倉」，賣掉全部持有股票相關投資（只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票）。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中，該基金每年錄得百分之七增長，表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健，看其投資顧問名單，識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯（A. Smithers），上世紀末一度大紅大紫；另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙（D. Swensen）……。
史密化斯（倫敦同名顧問公司主席）是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一，他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐，絕非「幸運之神眷顧」，而是他向來奉「杜賓ｑ比率」（Tobin's q，筆者過去譯「杜賓的ｑ」）為圭臬，令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂ｑ比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比，引伸至股市，杜賓認為在「自有資金」（即投資者集體持有的資金）比率高的社會，股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估；假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財（如機器等生產工具）之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」，則公司可輕易從市場集資；購進股票的投資者，必會履行作為股東的權利，督促該投資計劃（集資的目的）完成……。基於這種分析，投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距，若股價較低，即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」，便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準，因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財，他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估，此外還有商譽的估值更難，而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯，在大牛市中援用「杜賓ｑ比率」，雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺，「賺少好多」，但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議，向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊，引起投資界的注意；貸款數額雖是小數目，但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院，遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半，不少股價低於「重置成本」，因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機；它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃，向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09（如通脹率百分之十，利息為百分之11點09）。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算，至公元2048年，克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊，而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯，克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者，相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣，「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭（J. Cochrane）昨天（12日）在《紐約時報》論股市，認為那些「有現金在手」（less leveraged）、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者，現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法，和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資，最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後，投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資，但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」，投資者一無所有；如今一旦爆發戰爭，難免核彈擲來擲去，意味無論你投資什麼，在什麼市場投資，財富都會人間蒸發。因此，現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事！
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院，因其捐款者狄．克萊爾夫人（Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360）而得名，她為英皇愛德華一世（1239-1307）的孫女，三嫁，當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後，只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」，「從婚姻市場淡出」，此後終生從事慈善事業，劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中，克萊爾無論從校舍、花園（草坪）及學生人數（去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名），都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營，克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊，不算富裕，其基金管理手法，則以保守穩健名於時（劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊，克萊爾並無損失），基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議（市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議），其資金分配是股票（主要是指數基金；長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道，見3月12日本欄的分析）佔七成、地產（主要是店舖）為三成，不過，隨市場變化，此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」，是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候，毅然「清倉」，賣掉全部持有股票相關投資（只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票）。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中，該基金每年錄得百分之七增長，表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健，看其投資顧問名單，識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯（A. Smithers），上世紀末一度大紅大紫；另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙（D. Swensen）……。
史密化斯（倫敦同名顧問公司主席）是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一，他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐，絕非「幸運之神眷顧」，而是他向來奉「杜賓ｑ比率」（Tobin's q，筆者過去譯「杜賓的ｑ」）為圭臬，令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂ｑ比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比，引伸至股市，杜賓認為在「自有資金」（即投資者集體持有的資金）比率高的社會，股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估；假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財（如機器等生產工具）之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」，則公司可輕易從市場集資；購進股票的投資者，必會履行作為股東的權利，督促該投資計劃（集資的目的）完成……。基於這種分析，投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距，若股價較低，即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」，便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準，因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財，他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估，此外還有商譽的估值更難，而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯，在大牛市中援用「杜賓ｑ比率」，雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺，「賺少好多」，但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議，向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊，引起投資界的注意；貸款數額雖是小數目，但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院，遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半，不少股價低於「重置成本」，因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機；它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃，向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09（如通脹率百分之十，利息為百分之11點09）。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算，至公元2048年，克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊，而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯，克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者，相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣，「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭（J. Cochrane）昨天（12日）在《紐約時報》論股市，認為那些「有現金在手」（less leveraged）、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者，現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法，和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資，最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後，投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資，但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」，投資者一無所有；如今一旦爆發戰爭，難免核彈擲來擲去，意味無論你投資什麼，在什麼市場投資，財富都會人間蒸發。因此，現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事！
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
你为何不能成为富翁?
哈佛大学第一堂经济学课只教两个概念，一是花钱要区分 “ 投资 ” 行为或 “ 消费 ” 行为；二是每月先储蓄30%的工资，剩下的才用于消费。
哈佛教出来的人，几乎都很富有，并非因为他们是名校出身，而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里，似乎还有些懵懂，再举几个例子，就会恍然大悟。
譬如：10年前，甲和乙是本科的同学，在社会工作5年后，不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房，乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天，甲的房子市值为60万元；乙的二手车，市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产，明显有了很大差异，但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为，钱其实没有花出去，只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为，钱是花出去的，给了别人，二手车用过10年后，几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起，A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券，几年后现金翻番；A买名牌皮鞋、西装，几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董，现在已经价值连城；而A爱好唱歌、跳舞，这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票，A说买那玩意干吗？人家买房子，A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时，A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时，A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ，你说A能成为富翁吗？
很多人认为，甲的收入为每月1.5万元，乙的收入为每月8000元，甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义，并不是你每月工资挣得多，而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ，剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍，照说美国人应比中国人富有，实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡，每个月花完钱后，会欠下不少债。在美国，理财规划师的理财讲座，时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样，一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍，他们自然比我们富有，其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道，在台湾，地铁单程是12元，上海是3元；在台湾，午饭平均要50元，上海是10元；在台湾租一套房6500元，上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾，假如每月挣15000元，减去房租6500元，交通费1000元，吃饭3000元，交税1500元，一点点娱乐2000元，每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师，每月工资8000元，减去交税1000元，减去房租1000元，交通费200元，吃饭1000元，娱乐1000元，每月剩下3800元。显而易见，到底谁更富有？
A没存过一分钱，结婚成家后，给老婆的也不是存款，而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条：储蓄30%的工资是硬指标，A算了算，工作到现在，至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
哈佛教出来的人，几乎都很富有，并非因为他们是名校出身，而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里，似乎还有些懵懂，再举几个例子，就会恍然大悟。
譬如：10年前，甲和乙是本科的同学，在社会工作5年后，不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房，乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天，甲的房子市值为60万元；乙的二手车，市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产，明显有了很大差异，但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为，钱其实没有花出去，只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为，钱是花出去的，给了别人，二手车用过10年后，几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起，A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券，几年后现金翻番；A买名牌皮鞋、西装，几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董，现在已经价值连城；而A爱好唱歌、跳舞，这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票，A说买那玩意干吗？人家买房子，A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时，A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时，A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ，你说A能成为富翁吗？
很多人认为，甲的收入为每月1.5万元，乙的收入为每月8000元，甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义，并不是你每月工资挣得多，而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ，剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍，照说美国人应比中国人富有，实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡，每个月花完钱后，会欠下不少债。在美国，理财规划师的理财讲座，时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样，一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍，他们自然比我们富有，其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道，在台湾，地铁单程是12元，上海是3元；在台湾，午饭平均要50元，上海是10元；在台湾租一套房6500元，上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾，假如每月挣15000元，减去房租6500元，交通费1000元，吃饭3000元，交税1500元，一点点娱乐2000元，每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师，每月工资8000元，减去交税1000元，减去房租1000元，交通费200元，吃饭1000元，娱乐1000元，每月剩下3800元。显而易见，到底谁更富有？
A没存过一分钱，结婚成家后，给老婆的也不是存款，而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条：储蓄30%的工资是硬指标，A算了算，工作到现在，至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
投资的成败关键是对人性的超越和驾驭
2008年10月底,中国平安公布季报,公司因为巨额投资损失,陷入亏损,与此同时股价也跌破了20元。作为一个中国平安的持有人,当股价在很短的时间里就从40元跌破20元,实话实说,凌通心里绝对没有愉快可言,但是从40元到20元的整个过程中, 我们心里完全没有担心,对于这种价格的急速下跌, 凌通始终认为，这是不正确的，我们也并没有因为它的股价下跌,丝毫怀疑过自己的判断,在那种山崩地裂的下跌过程中,凌通看好中国平安的判断没有任何变化。因此，在平安股价下跌的过程中,一直保持了比较平和的平常心。
当中国平安股价跌破20元时,这个时候买入的念头很强烈地产生出来。因为破20元也是重大的价格变化,是过去完全没有想到的，中国平安股价跌破20元一下就触发了凌通买入的欲望,但在这种买入的欲望产生之后,心灵深处一个奇怪声音和力量也快速地同步出现,这个力量总之是阻挡买入想法的,这种力量是从身体内部钻出来的,是一种莫名的东西,它制约着想要买入平安的那种愿望,它使得买入行为不再变得坚决果断了,并且最终这股力量使得在20元买入平安的初始愿望没有变成行动. 这种力量并不是简单的恐惧,因为从始到终凌通做为平安的持有人,伴随着股价下跌,始终没有发生过担心,所以并没有恐惧。
这股力量很强大,它在你就要做出决策的那一瞬间,快速地从你身体内部产生出来,一下子把你基于知识和事实所形成的判断制约住了,使得你不能够完全按照你的理性判断果断地行动.它以一种说不清的方式快速地扩散到大脑中,压制理性判断所形成的决策,然后使你不由自主放弃了理性判断.
这种东西凌通反思应该是人性,人性不是理性的范畴,它是与理性截然相反和截然对抗的。（人性为什么要约束理性,要排斥理性,这真是个奇怪的复杂的难题,希望人类早日认识这问题）人的任何行为都是理性和人性的博弈后形成的行为。人的任何行为都是理性与人性共同决定的。在大部分情况下,尤其是重大利益决策时上理性和人性的博弈，理性常常败给人性。因此，在处理重大利益的决策过程中,你首先必须形成正确的理性判断,如果本身就没做调查研究和思考,就不可能有正确的结论.也永远不会有正确的行为。但是有了理性的结论,最终执行这个决策的过程中, 把正确决策变成正确的行为，理性还需要和人性对抗,在执行理性的判断时,还必须通过人性这道关，人性是你把正确的主观判断落实到实处的必经环节。人性总是要干扰和阻挡你，大部分好的理性判断，最终在人性的干扰下不能实现，正确的判断是基础，但最后的关键是过人性关。 过了人性关，就是最高境界的投资者，过不了人性关，你就会功败垂成，这就是为什么说投资最关键的是超越人性。
凌通认为如何认识人性如何控制人性，如何超越人性，这是一门比如何估值都重要的学问.它的价值和作用目前还没有被投资者认识到.市场上也没有关于人性规律的研究,也没有如何应对人性的理论,所以加快对人性规律的研究,是投资领域的重大课题,投资人认识自己的人性特征,超越自己的人性是重中之重。
凌通也在思考更进一步的问题,人性是人的本性,如果你能超越和驾驭了人性,是否意味着你就不是人了,换句话说,人是否不能超越人性，只能认识人性把人性控制和压缩在一定范围,让人性和理性和谐相处,互相不要有过大的影响。
人到底能不能完全超越人性？谁能回答者问题？
当中国平安股价跌破20元时,这个时候买入的念头很强烈地产生出来。因为破20元也是重大的价格变化,是过去完全没有想到的，中国平安股价跌破20元一下就触发了凌通买入的欲望,但在这种买入的欲望产生之后,心灵深处一个奇怪声音和力量也快速地同步出现,这个力量总之是阻挡买入想法的,这种力量是从身体内部钻出来的,是一种莫名的东西,它制约着想要买入平安的那种愿望,它使得买入行为不再变得坚决果断了,并且最终这股力量使得在20元买入平安的初始愿望没有变成行动. 这种力量并不是简单的恐惧,因为从始到终凌通做为平安的持有人,伴随着股价下跌,始终没有发生过担心,所以并没有恐惧。
这股力量很强大,它在你就要做出决策的那一瞬间,快速地从你身体内部产生出来,一下子把你基于知识和事实所形成的判断制约住了,使得你不能够完全按照你的理性判断果断地行动.它以一种说不清的方式快速地扩散到大脑中,压制理性判断所形成的决策,然后使你不由自主放弃了理性判断.
这种东西凌通反思应该是人性,人性不是理性的范畴,它是与理性截然相反和截然对抗的。（人性为什么要约束理性,要排斥理性,这真是个奇怪的复杂的难题,希望人类早日认识这问题）人的任何行为都是理性和人性的博弈后形成的行为。人的任何行为都是理性与人性共同决定的。在大部分情况下,尤其是重大利益决策时上理性和人性的博弈，理性常常败给人性。因此，在处理重大利益的决策过程中,你首先必须形成正确的理性判断,如果本身就没做调查研究和思考,就不可能有正确的结论.也永远不会有正确的行为。但是有了理性的结论,最终执行这个决策的过程中, 把正确决策变成正确的行为，理性还需要和人性对抗,在执行理性的判断时,还必须通过人性这道关，人性是你把正确的主观判断落实到实处的必经环节。人性总是要干扰和阻挡你，大部分好的理性判断，最终在人性的干扰下不能实现，正确的判断是基础，但最后的关键是过人性关。 过了人性关，就是最高境界的投资者，过不了人性关，你就会功败垂成，这就是为什么说投资最关键的是超越人性。
凌通认为如何认识人性如何控制人性，如何超越人性，这是一门比如何估值都重要的学问.它的价值和作用目前还没有被投资者认识到.市场上也没有关于人性规律的研究,也没有如何应对人性的理论,所以加快对人性规律的研究,是投资领域的重大课题,投资人认识自己的人性特征,超越自己的人性是重中之重。
凌通也在思考更进一步的问题,人性是人的本性,如果你能超越和驾驭了人性,是否意味着你就不是人了,换句话说,人是否不能超越人性，只能认识人性把人性控制和压缩在一定范围,让人性和理性和谐相处,互相不要有过大的影响。
人到底能不能完全超越人性？谁能回答者问题？
理性
在股票市场上，情绪的力量往往比理性的力量更为强大，贪婪和狂热推高股价，使其远远超过内在价值，恐惧和悲观又压低股价，使其远远低于内在价值。短期看，投资者的感情对股价的冲击力，超过企业的基本面。
投资者最大的敌人不是股票市场，而是他自己，当人们贪婪或恐惧时，往往以愚蠢的价格买入或卖出股票。即使投资者具有数学，财务，会计方面的超人才能，如果不能理性分析，很好地控制自己的情绪，仍难以从投资中获益。
在给大学生的公开演讲中，巴菲特提到了理性在自己成功中的重要性：
“ 我的成功并非源于高智商，我相信你们听到这一点，一定很高兴。我认为最重要的是理性，我总是把知识和才能看作是发动机的马力，但是输出功率，也就是发动机的工作效率，则取决于理性。为什么一些聪明的人在做事情的时候，不能获得他们理应得到的结果呢？这涉及到习惯，性格和气质等方面的因素，涉及到行为是否合乎理性？是不是自己在妨碍自己？ ”
与巴非特同时代的人，许多人比他更聪明，更努力，工作时间更长，但又有几人取得他这样伟大的成就？原因就在于：他比别人更理性，处理事情时，自我控制能力更强，不让感情左右理智。
牛顿不可谓智商不高，但投资成绩一塌糊涂，爱因斯旦更是绝对的天才，他能算出天体运行的轨迹，但却算不出股票短期的涨跌。二位天才亏就亏在，智商有余，理性不足。
投资，让我们的感情和激情走开，让我们的冷血和理性充盈。我想，诗人和作家的投资成绩，也许赶不上历史学家和哲学家。
知识可以战胜恐惧，打败贪婪。当你通过学习，了解和掌握了"股价始终围绕企业内在波动 “ 这一股市永恒的规律后。（股票是狗，内在价值是主人，跑远了，它又回来。）深知股票的长期价值取决于企业的经济运行，而不是市场的每天行情，涨跌无常，你就会从容地坦然面对。一切全在掌握中，多份知识，少份盲动，多份理性，少份贪怕。
巴非特告诉我们：当适当的气质与智力相结合时，你就可能得到理性的行为。智力和气质有一定的先天成分，但还是可以通过后天的努力加以改善和提高，尤其是气质。
正确的事，不断做，简单的事，重复做，养成习惯，形成自然，气质和理性也就不请自来。
投资者最大的敌人不是股票市场，而是他自己，当人们贪婪或恐惧时，往往以愚蠢的价格买入或卖出股票。即使投资者具有数学，财务，会计方面的超人才能，如果不能理性分析，很好地控制自己的情绪，仍难以从投资中获益。
在给大学生的公开演讲中，巴菲特提到了理性在自己成功中的重要性：
“ 我的成功并非源于高智商，我相信你们听到这一点，一定很高兴。我认为最重要的是理性，我总是把知识和才能看作是发动机的马力，但是输出功率，也就是发动机的工作效率，则取决于理性。为什么一些聪明的人在做事情的时候，不能获得他们理应得到的结果呢？这涉及到习惯，性格和气质等方面的因素，涉及到行为是否合乎理性？是不是自己在妨碍自己？ ”
与巴非特同时代的人，许多人比他更聪明，更努力，工作时间更长，但又有几人取得他这样伟大的成就？原因就在于：他比别人更理性，处理事情时，自我控制能力更强，不让感情左右理智。
牛顿不可谓智商不高，但投资成绩一塌糊涂，爱因斯旦更是绝对的天才，他能算出天体运行的轨迹，但却算不出股票短期的涨跌。二位天才亏就亏在，智商有余，理性不足。
投资，让我们的感情和激情走开，让我们的冷血和理性充盈。我想，诗人和作家的投资成绩，也许赶不上历史学家和哲学家。
知识可以战胜恐惧，打败贪婪。当你通过学习，了解和掌握了"股价始终围绕企业内在波动 “ 这一股市永恒的规律后。（股票是狗，内在价值是主人，跑远了，它又回来。）深知股票的长期价值取决于企业的经济运行，而不是市场的每天行情，涨跌无常，你就会从容地坦然面对。一切全在掌握中，多份知识，少份盲动，多份理性，少份贪怕。
巴非特告诉我们：当适当的气质与智力相结合时，你就可能得到理性的行为。智力和气质有一定的先天成分，但还是可以通过后天的努力加以改善和提高，尤其是气质。
正确的事，不断做，简单的事，重复做，养成习惯，形成自然，气质和理性也就不请自来。
巴菲特 號召入市
筆者註: 全球金融已經一體化. 由美國次按演變而來的金融海嘯由北美傳導至歐洲, 以致亞洲等新興市場, 然而,銀行業乃百業之母, 為各企業資金的主要來源, 一旦心臟衰竭, 血液供應必然大大減弱, 身體各器官的正常運作也會受到負面影響. 於是,原本屬於金融業的系統性風險無可避免擴大至全面的經濟風險. 如果將金融業視為上遊企業(以資金供應鏈的角度), 上游有事,下游各企業(需要銀行提供資金的企業)豈能獨善其身?當金融公司倒閉的新聞出現一段時間後, 其他下游企業出現倒閉的新聞也是意料中事.在銀行收緊信貸額度之後, 下游企業無可避免要停止擴充甚至收縮業務, 減低營運成本甚至裁員.失業率上升將影響消費市道, 繼而影響企業盈利, 企業盈利的倒退甚至虧損將影響企業的還款能力, 繼而影響銀行的資產質素.惡性循環的效果是壞消息不斷的出現.
I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This
description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed top hilanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire networth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
筆者註: 巴菲特個人財富之中, 大部分是持有Berkshire Hathaway. 其次就是持有美國政府的債券. 可以睇到 巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)一樣, 不喜歡持有現金. 而當股價吸引時, 甚至會100%持股.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
筆者註: 巴菲特的名句: "在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼" 的確是投資至勝之道.問題是, 幾多人可以實行到? 然而, 並非所有公司都可以逆市買入. 當中, 要避開的, 包括高負債高槓桿操作的公司, 以及沒有競爭優勢的公司.對於那些體質健壯的公司, 雖然短期盈利會受損, 但是, 5年後, 10年後, 盈利回復活力以及再創盈利新記錄是可以預期的.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely,however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so,well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
筆者註: 短期股市的走勢難以預測. 然而, 如果投資者等待經濟出現明顯復甦的跡象時, 那時股市極可能已經上升不少了, 因為股市的上升將發生在經濟復甦之前.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
筆者註: 巴菲特再次強調, 壞消息是投資者的好朋友, 因為不利消息可以為投資者提供較低的進場價格.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century,the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
筆者註: 有些倒楣的投資者發覺自己通常是高買低賣. 巴菲特提醒你, 問問自己, 是否見到好消息才有信心去高追, 而見到壞消息就不安地沽出.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless,I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.”Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
筆者註:不要持有現金然後期望(觀望)政府推出利好政策救市, 因為政府的救市方案將導致通貨膨脹. 長遠來看, 持有現金是非常低回報的資產,因為會被通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力. 相反, 持有股票長遠的回報將大大勝過持有現金.巴菲特認為現時堅持持有現金的投資者是在賭緊自己能夠掌握股市的走勢, 和升跌的韻律, 是在等待令自己心安的好消息.但是巴菲特認為現時就是買股票的時候.
中文版
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉成美股。 為什麼？有個簡單的買進規則：別人貪婪時應恐懼，別人恐懼時應貪婪。現在瀰漫的是恐懼感，即使投資老手也逃不過。投資人提防借貸比率過高或競爭力弱的企業是對的，但對許多體質健全公司的長期展望憂心忡忡卻沒道理。這些企業的獲利偶爾會打嗝，但多數大公司會在五年、十年或二十年後締造新的獲利紀錄。
有一點要說清楚：我無法預測股市的短期走勢，不知一個月或一年後股價會漲或跌。然而，行情可能在市場信心轉強或經濟改觀前就走高，也許漲幅可觀。你若要等知更鳥啼鳴，春天可能已結束。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。
長期來說，股市新聞會變好。在20世紀，美國歷經過兩次世界大戰和其他代價慘重的軍事衝突，以及大蕭條、十幾次衰退和金融恐慌，還有幾次石油危機、一波大流感，及總統丟人現眼後辭職下台。但道瓊指數照樣從66點漲至11,497點。
你可能以為，20世紀漲幅這麼大，幾乎不可能賠錢，但就是有些人虧錢。這些倒楣人只在覺得放心時買股票，一瞥見令人不安的新聞就賣出。今天，手中持有現金及約當現金的人覺得心安，其實不該如此。他們選擇了可怕的長期資產，幾乎不生財且注定會貶值。沒錯，政府為緩解危機而採行的政策勢必引發通膨，進而加速現金帳戶的實際價值下滑。
股票未來十年的表現勢必勝過現金。現在緊抱現金的投資人，是賭他們稍後可算準時機再進場買進。在等待好消息時，他們忽視冰上曲棍球巨星葛瑞斯基（Wayne Gretzky）的建言：「溜冰時要滑向曲棍球餅預料會到的地方，而不是現在的位置。」
我不喜歡對股市發表意見，容我再次強調，我不知市場短期走向。然而，我會仿效一家餐廳的作法，這家餐廳在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓開業，廣告標語說：「錢放哪裡，就在哪裡吃。」今天，我的錢和我的嘴都嚷著要「股票」。
I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This
description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed top hilanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire networth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
筆者註: 巴菲特個人財富之中, 大部分是持有Berkshire Hathaway. 其次就是持有美國政府的債券. 可以睇到 巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)一樣, 不喜歡持有現金. 而當股價吸引時, 甚至會100%持股.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
筆者註: 巴菲特的名句: "在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼" 的確是投資至勝之道.問題是, 幾多人可以實行到? 然而, 並非所有公司都可以逆市買入. 當中, 要避開的, 包括高負債高槓桿操作的公司, 以及沒有競爭優勢的公司.對於那些體質健壯的公司, 雖然短期盈利會受損, 但是, 5年後, 10年後, 盈利回復活力以及再創盈利新記錄是可以預期的.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely,however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so,well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
筆者註: 短期股市的走勢難以預測. 然而, 如果投資者等待經濟出現明顯復甦的跡象時, 那時股市極可能已經上升不少了, 因為股市的上升將發生在經濟復甦之前.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
筆者註: 巴菲特再次強調, 壞消息是投資者的好朋友, 因為不利消息可以為投資者提供較低的進場價格.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century,the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
筆者註: 有些倒楣的投資者發覺自己通常是高買低賣. 巴菲特提醒你, 問問自己, 是否見到好消息才有信心去高追, 而見到壞消息就不安地沽出.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless,I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.”Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
筆者註:不要持有現金然後期望(觀望)政府推出利好政策救市, 因為政府的救市方案將導致通貨膨脹. 長遠來看, 持有現金是非常低回報的資產,因為會被通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力. 相反, 持有股票長遠的回報將大大勝過持有現金.巴菲特認為現時堅持持有現金的投資者是在賭緊自己能夠掌握股市的走勢, 和升跌的韻律, 是在等待令自己心安的好消息.但是巴菲特認為現時就是買股票的時候.
中文版
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉成美股。 為什麼？有個簡單的買進規則：別人貪婪時應恐懼，別人恐懼時應貪婪。現在瀰漫的是恐懼感，即使投資老手也逃不過。投資人提防借貸比率過高或競爭力弱的企業是對的，但對許多體質健全公司的長期展望憂心忡忡卻沒道理。這些企業的獲利偶爾會打嗝，但多數大公司會在五年、十年或二十年後締造新的獲利紀錄。
有一點要說清楚：我無法預測股市的短期走勢，不知一個月或一年後股價會漲或跌。然而，行情可能在市場信心轉強或經濟改觀前就走高，也許漲幅可觀。你若要等知更鳥啼鳴，春天可能已結束。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。
長期來說，股市新聞會變好。在20世紀，美國歷經過兩次世界大戰和其他代價慘重的軍事衝突，以及大蕭條、十幾次衰退和金融恐慌，還有幾次石油危機、一波大流感，及總統丟人現眼後辭職下台。但道瓊指數照樣從66點漲至11,497點。
你可能以為，20世紀漲幅這麼大，幾乎不可能賠錢，但就是有些人虧錢。這些倒楣人只在覺得放心時買股票，一瞥見令人不安的新聞就賣出。今天，手中持有現金及約當現金的人覺得心安，其實不該如此。他們選擇了可怕的長期資產，幾乎不生財且注定會貶值。沒錯，政府為緩解危機而採行的政策勢必引發通膨，進而加速現金帳戶的實際價值下滑。
股票未來十年的表現勢必勝過現金。現在緊抱現金的投資人，是賭他們稍後可算準時機再進場買進。在等待好消息時，他們忽視冰上曲棍球巨星葛瑞斯基（Wayne Gretzky）的建言：「溜冰時要滑向曲棍球餅預料會到的地方，而不是現在的位置。」
我不喜歡對股市發表意見，容我再次強調，我不知市場短期走向。然而，我會仿效一家餐廳的作法，這家餐廳在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓開業，廣告標語說：「錢放哪裡，就在哪裡吃。」今天，我的錢和我的嘴都嚷著要「股票」。
The sunny side of bear markets
YES, WE are in a market downturn and it's depressing to see Mr Market's valuations of our stock portfolios (and our own valuation of our stockpicking abilities) going down.
There is bad news all round with seemingly no hope of recovery in the next five years - but things are not all bad. No, this is not an article encouraging short-selling (I think you are an idiot to short-sell the Singapore market at current levels) nor is it meant to be chicken soup for the investor's soul because if one just sips it without acting on it, it's simply no use --- conviction is worthless unless it is converted into conduct.
Here are my views:
(1) You can't have a market rally without a market downturn.
Translating that into something closer to our hearts, you can't have big profits without tolerating substantial drawdowns. Why does this always work? For one, the valuation goes from overvalued to undervalued, and valuations always regress to the mean. For another, in downturns the stock scrip moves from weak holders (margin, contra, institutions with investor mandate that could face redemptions etc) to the strong holders (pension funds, investors managing with no heavy liability considerations, wealthy people, other cash-rich fund managers) and sets the stage for a compressed spring effect.
(2)Don't hit the panic button
Certain things are controllable and one should not be beset by a sense of panic and helplessness. Aren't there some stocks that you always wanted to buy because they had all the elements of a Buffett-type long-term stock with economic moats and honest management and high returns on equity and all that, except that their valuations were too expensive? A market slump presents such an opportunity because the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.
(3) The irony is that one doesn't have to worry too much about the price-fundamentals linkage in down markets. In bull markets, one should take note if the price is weak despite apparently strong fundamentals; it might signal something wrong. In down markets, more often than not it's due to a rush for liquidity and institutional risk aversion. Of course, this conviction must be supported by an understanding of market dynamics and evidence that the company is not going to be hit, especially in the long-term, by the declining real economy.
(4) It's an opportunity to swap the weaker companies in one's portfolio for stronger ones. If you bought Ipco at 10 cents in July 07 when Celestial Nutrifoods was at $1.50, you have the option of swapping one for the other now at no relative loss since they have both halved. Isn't it great that you can wash away your stockpicking mistakes in a down market?
(5) Market downturns offer validation of a stock's underlying potential – it’s like stress-testing. It offers you a chance to see the price action of the stocks you hold/are interested in under a market downturn scenario. Often it offers many insights on the resilience of price supports, trading volume in weak markets (indicative of institutional interest), and of course fundamental earnings performance in a weak real economy. It’s very valuable information that either strengthens your conviction or removes it.
(6) For the investor, it allows him to practise value averaging effectively. If one is certain of the (non-cyclical) fundamentals of the companies he holds, market downturns offer the best justification for averaging down because often the stock's price decline has little to do with its core operating strength. Just as pyramiding in a bull market allows one to build on gains exponentially, averaging down in bear markets can work (big caveat: know the fundamentals with conviction).
(7) There are always certain sectors that will do better, or even flourish, stock market-wise. Check out William O'Neill's book "How To Make Money In Stocks" for a listing of the bull sectors even through the stagflation years of the 1970s.
(8) If not price-wise, there are always certain sectors that will do better operations-wise while their stocks perform in a lack-lustre manner on the moribund stock market. So one will be able to get emerging champions at a good price in a market downturn. In the 1970s, an example of a new bull sector that would come to the fore and enjoy a secular run over the next two decades was the electronics sector - specifically, computers. The important thing is to stay alert by tracking the news so that you can spot these sectors.
So there you have 8 reasons to huat from a market downturn. Of course, if in doubt, remain in cash. Risk-taking is a function of one's stomach, one's conviction, one's liability considerations and one's time horizon. There is no one size that fits all.
There is bad news all round with seemingly no hope of recovery in the next five years - but things are not all bad. No, this is not an article encouraging short-selling (I think you are an idiot to short-sell the Singapore market at current levels) nor is it meant to be chicken soup for the investor's soul because if one just sips it without acting on it, it's simply no use --- conviction is worthless unless it is converted into conduct.
Here are my views:
(1) You can't have a market rally without a market downturn.
Translating that into something closer to our hearts, you can't have big profits without tolerating substantial drawdowns. Why does this always work? For one, the valuation goes from overvalued to undervalued, and valuations always regress to the mean. For another, in downturns the stock scrip moves from weak holders (margin, contra, institutions with investor mandate that could face redemptions etc) to the strong holders (pension funds, investors managing with no heavy liability considerations, wealthy people, other cash-rich fund managers) and sets the stage for a compressed spring effect.
(2)Don't hit the panic button
Certain things are controllable and one should not be beset by a sense of panic and helplessness. Aren't there some stocks that you always wanted to buy because they had all the elements of a Buffett-type long-term stock with economic moats and honest management and high returns on equity and all that, except that their valuations were too expensive? A market slump presents such an opportunity because the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.
(3) The irony is that one doesn't have to worry too much about the price-fundamentals linkage in down markets. In bull markets, one should take note if the price is weak despite apparently strong fundamentals; it might signal something wrong. In down markets, more often than not it's due to a rush for liquidity and institutional risk aversion. Of course, this conviction must be supported by an understanding of market dynamics and evidence that the company is not going to be hit, especially in the long-term, by the declining real economy.
(4) It's an opportunity to swap the weaker companies in one's portfolio for stronger ones. If you bought Ipco at 10 cents in July 07 when Celestial Nutrifoods was at $1.50, you have the option of swapping one for the other now at no relative loss since they have both halved. Isn't it great that you can wash away your stockpicking mistakes in a down market?
(5) Market downturns offer validation of a stock's underlying potential – it’s like stress-testing. It offers you a chance to see the price action of the stocks you hold/are interested in under a market downturn scenario. Often it offers many insights on the resilience of price supports, trading volume in weak markets (indicative of institutional interest), and of course fundamental earnings performance in a weak real economy. It’s very valuable information that either strengthens your conviction or removes it.
(6) For the investor, it allows him to practise value averaging effectively. If one is certain of the (non-cyclical) fundamentals of the companies he holds, market downturns offer the best justification for averaging down because often the stock's price decline has little to do with its core operating strength. Just as pyramiding in a bull market allows one to build on gains exponentially, averaging down in bear markets can work (big caveat: know the fundamentals with conviction).
(7) There are always certain sectors that will do better, or even flourish, stock market-wise. Check out William O'Neill's book "How To Make Money In Stocks" for a listing of the bull sectors even through the stagflation years of the 1970s.
(8) If not price-wise, there are always certain sectors that will do better operations-wise while their stocks perform in a lack-lustre manner on the moribund stock market. So one will be able to get emerging champions at a good price in a market downturn. In the 1970s, an example of a new bull sector that would come to the fore and enjoy a secular run over the next two decades was the electronics sector - specifically, computers. The important thing is to stay alert by tracking the news so that you can spot these sectors.
So there you have 8 reasons to huat from a market downturn. Of course, if in doubt, remain in cash. Risk-taking is a function of one's stomach, one's conviction, one's liability considerations and one's time horizon. There is no one size that fits all.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
真正的投资者需要三个性情
本杰明·格雷厄姆或许比心理学家更了解市场情绪的危险性。他认为真正的投资者应该从性情方面进行区别，而不仅仅技巧。投机者往往很忧虑、急躁、不理性，因此他们最大的敌人是他们自己。他们可能在数学、财务或金融方面出类拔萃，但是如果他们无法控制自己的情绪，一样无法从投资中获利。因此格雷厄姆指出，一个成功的投资者经常是那种冷静，耐心和具有理性性情的人。对此罗伯特·海格卓姆作出进一步阐释。
第一、真正的投资者能保持冷静。
他们知道股价受到各种合理和不合理因素的影响，会剧烈地上下波动。当他们持有的股票价格下跌的时候，他们的反应很镇定，绝不会惊慌失措，因为他们知道，只要公司仍然保持吸引他们第一次买入公司股票时的质量，价格肯定是会回升的。在这一点上，巴菲特一直坚持：除非你能够看见自己的股票下跌50％仍然不会惊慌，否则就不要进入市场。事实上，只要你对自己持有股票的公司感觉良好，你应该对价格下跌感到高兴，因为这是一种能够使你的股票获利的方式。
真正的投资者的性情最出色的还在于，当市场处于另一个极端时，他们面对整个市场的整体影响的时候，也能保持冷静。当一只股票、一个行业或一个基金突然受到公众的瞩目时，一般的投资者都会不做思考地冲进去。但是麻烦在于，当每个人都认为这样做是正确的，那么就没有人可以获利。在1999年的《财富》杂志上，巴菲特谈到影响大量牛市投资者的“不容错过的行动”因素时警告：真正的投资者不会担心错过这种行动，他们担心的是未经准备就采取这种行动。
第二、真正的投资者是有耐心的。
他们不会卷入公众的热情之中，他们会等待合适的机会加入。他们说“是”的次数不是那么经常。巴菲特回忆，他早年在格雷厄姆－纽曼工作的时候，大多数情况下，在格雷厄姆分析了那些可能购买的一只股票之后，都拒绝了他的推荐。巴菲特说，格雷厄姆不会轻易购买一只股票，除非各种情况都对他有利。巴菲特在这段经历中学会了说“不”的能力。对一个投资者来说，拥有说“不”的能力是一个极大的优势。
巴菲特相信，今天的投资者都不是等待为数不多的特别优秀的公司，而是觉得必须购买太多的股票，而这些股票往往是很普通的股票，为了强调格雷厄姆的教育，巴菲特经常用打卡进行比喻：卡上只有20个孔，每作出一项决策，就在卡上打一个孔，在余下的时间里他就少了一个孔。如果投资者能受到这样的控制，他们就会耐心地等待好的投资机会的出现。
第三、真正的投资者能保持理性。
他们在一个思维清楚的基础上走向市场和世界。他们既不过于悲观，也不过于乐观，相反，他们能够一直保持逻辑性和理性。
巴菲特发现一种很奇怪的现象：很多人习惯上不喜欢对他们有利的市场，却喜欢对他们不利的市场。当市场上涨时，他们就觉得乐观，而当市场下跌时，他们就觉得悲观。当他们把这种情绪变成行动的时候，他们往往会选择在低价卖出，在高价买进，但是很显然，这不是利润最大化的策略。在巴菲特看来，当其他人都感到悲观时，真正的投资者应当感到高兴，因为他看到事情的真相：这是以低价买进真正优秀公司的最好时机。巴菲特说，悲观情绪是“引发价格下挫的最主要因素，我们希望在这种环境下进行交易，不是因为我们喜欢悲观情绪，而是因为我们喜欢这种情绪带来的价格。乐观情绪是理性购买者的敌人”。
1979年，道指工业平均数稍稍低于账面价值；股票平均收益率为13％；债券利息率在9％－10％之间浮动，但是大多数退休经理人还是优先选择了债券。巴菲特为此在《福布斯》杂志写了一篇题为《你在股市上花大价钱买了个愉快协议》的文章，对这种不合逻辑的选择进行解释：也许投资组合经理人觉得最近形势不明朗，因此最好还是不要进行证券委托。巴菲特说，这种心理，必须承认“未来形势永远都不会明朗”，而且“你为愉快协议支付了大价钱”。
投资者的乐观或悲观都反映了他对未来的想法，而预测未来的结果最多只是机警的，因为乐观或悲观的情绪是以情感为基础而不是以分析研究为基础，那么这种预测就是完全是愚蠢的。
巴菲特从未预测过市场何时会上涨，何时会下跌，相反，他一直关注的是市场的情绪变化，并据此采取行动，那就是他著名的那句话：在别人贪婪时谨慎，而在别人恐惧时贪婪。
第一、真正的投资者能保持冷静。
他们知道股价受到各种合理和不合理因素的影响，会剧烈地上下波动。当他们持有的股票价格下跌的时候，他们的反应很镇定，绝不会惊慌失措，因为他们知道，只要公司仍然保持吸引他们第一次买入公司股票时的质量，价格肯定是会回升的。在这一点上，巴菲特一直坚持：除非你能够看见自己的股票下跌50％仍然不会惊慌，否则就不要进入市场。事实上，只要你对自己持有股票的公司感觉良好，你应该对价格下跌感到高兴，因为这是一种能够使你的股票获利的方式。
真正的投资者的性情最出色的还在于，当市场处于另一个极端时，他们面对整个市场的整体影响的时候，也能保持冷静。当一只股票、一个行业或一个基金突然受到公众的瞩目时，一般的投资者都会不做思考地冲进去。但是麻烦在于，当每个人都认为这样做是正确的，那么就没有人可以获利。在1999年的《财富》杂志上，巴菲特谈到影响大量牛市投资者的“不容错过的行动”因素时警告：真正的投资者不会担心错过这种行动，他们担心的是未经准备就采取这种行动。
第二、真正的投资者是有耐心的。
他们不会卷入公众的热情之中，他们会等待合适的机会加入。他们说“是”的次数不是那么经常。巴菲特回忆，他早年在格雷厄姆－纽曼工作的时候，大多数情况下，在格雷厄姆分析了那些可能购买的一只股票之后，都拒绝了他的推荐。巴菲特说，格雷厄姆不会轻易购买一只股票，除非各种情况都对他有利。巴菲特在这段经历中学会了说“不”的能力。对一个投资者来说，拥有说“不”的能力是一个极大的优势。
巴菲特相信，今天的投资者都不是等待为数不多的特别优秀的公司，而是觉得必须购买太多的股票，而这些股票往往是很普通的股票，为了强调格雷厄姆的教育，巴菲特经常用打卡进行比喻：卡上只有20个孔，每作出一项决策，就在卡上打一个孔，在余下的时间里他就少了一个孔。如果投资者能受到这样的控制，他们就会耐心地等待好的投资机会的出现。
第三、真正的投资者能保持理性。
他们在一个思维清楚的基础上走向市场和世界。他们既不过于悲观，也不过于乐观，相反，他们能够一直保持逻辑性和理性。
巴菲特发现一种很奇怪的现象：很多人习惯上不喜欢对他们有利的市场，却喜欢对他们不利的市场。当市场上涨时，他们就觉得乐观，而当市场下跌时，他们就觉得悲观。当他们把这种情绪变成行动的时候，他们往往会选择在低价卖出，在高价买进，但是很显然，这不是利润最大化的策略。在巴菲特看来，当其他人都感到悲观时，真正的投资者应当感到高兴，因为他看到事情的真相：这是以低价买进真正优秀公司的最好时机。巴菲特说，悲观情绪是“引发价格下挫的最主要因素，我们希望在这种环境下进行交易，不是因为我们喜欢悲观情绪，而是因为我们喜欢这种情绪带来的价格。乐观情绪是理性购买者的敌人”。
1979年，道指工业平均数稍稍低于账面价值；股票平均收益率为13％；债券利息率在9％－10％之间浮动，但是大多数退休经理人还是优先选择了债券。巴菲特为此在《福布斯》杂志写了一篇题为《你在股市上花大价钱买了个愉快协议》的文章，对这种不合逻辑的选择进行解释：也许投资组合经理人觉得最近形势不明朗，因此最好还是不要进行证券委托。巴菲特说，这种心理，必须承认“未来形势永远都不会明朗”，而且“你为愉快协议支付了大价钱”。
投资者的乐观或悲观都反映了他对未来的想法，而预测未来的结果最多只是机警的，因为乐观或悲观的情绪是以情感为基础而不是以分析研究为基础，那么这种预测就是完全是愚蠢的。
巴菲特从未预测过市场何时会上涨，何时会下跌，相反，他一直关注的是市场的情绪变化，并据此采取行动，那就是他著名的那句话：在别人贪婪时谨慎，而在别人恐惧时贪婪。
波浪理論等同事後孔明
用波浪理論分析大市，今年3月18日20572點係浪1；5月5日26387點係浪2；10月27日10676點係浪3，依家行緊浪4，估計喺15767至18681點之間任何一點完成，然後再行浪5（即終極一跌。細波浪分析由今年7月24日23369點起計，到10月27日已完成1、2、3、4及5下跌浪，家吓喺a、b及c反彈浪）。
我老曹1978年起學習波浪理論，到1997年前放棄，因發現波浪理論事後解釋幾好，但用佢推算未來，就錯漏百出。初期以為自己學藝未精，後來發現國際級波浪大師Prechter亦錯得離譜；咁樣我老曹只用作印證已發生嘅事，唔再用嚟預測未來。
七十及八十年代係我老曹最醉心走勢時刻。例如GANN（江恩理論）、ARIMA、TORGUE（扭力走勢）及Cycle Timing（循環理論）等都曾經研究過，甚至較偏門嘅走勢分析如Square Root of Sharpe及Stone's and Okham's Ratio亦有研究，但1997年後反璞歸真，重新相信基礎分析，另配合各種各類技術分析；最常用係Cycle Timing。基礎分析有如力與健，任何功夫如無氣力及健康身體，一切皆枉然。
技術分析已集各派武功取其優，一如李小龍嘅截拳道，做到後發先致。旺市莫估頂、淡市莫估底，搵到頂或底後先攻擊。例如去年10月見頂後，11月先睇淡，因為太早睇淡及太早睇好都係死罪。請唔好再扮先知。
我老曹1978年起學習波浪理論，到1997年前放棄，因發現波浪理論事後解釋幾好，但用佢推算未來，就錯漏百出。初期以為自己學藝未精，後來發現國際級波浪大師Prechter亦錯得離譜；咁樣我老曹只用作印證已發生嘅事，唔再用嚟預測未來。
七十及八十年代係我老曹最醉心走勢時刻。例如GANN（江恩理論）、ARIMA、TORGUE（扭力走勢）及Cycle Timing（循環理論）等都曾經研究過，甚至較偏門嘅走勢分析如Square Root of Sharpe及Stone's and Okham's Ratio亦有研究，但1997年後反璞歸真，重新相信基礎分析，另配合各種各類技術分析；最常用係Cycle Timing。基礎分析有如力與健，任何功夫如無氣力及健康身體，一切皆枉然。
技術分析已集各派武功取其優，一如李小龍嘅截拳道，做到後發先致。旺市莫估頂、淡市莫估底，搵到頂或底後先攻擊。例如去年10月見頂後，11月先睇淡，因為太早睇淡及太早睇好都係死罪。請唔好再扮先知。
Monday, November 10, 2008
成长何处寻？
一棵小树变成大树，这个过程，叫做“成长”。
一个企业，由小变大，这个过程，就叫“成长”，这种企业的股票，叫成长股。
成长股的特征就是公司的营业量和盈利，与日俱增，结果是股份的价值，也越来越高，股东的财富，也不断的膨胀。所有大马富豪，都是这样制造出来的。
惟有不断成长的企业，才有可能为股东创造财富。
如果你比较过去30年马星上市公司的表现的话，你会发现这些公司可以归纳为三类：
第一类：由小企业变成大企业，这类公司的股票，价值增加了数百倍（1万变数百万），叫“成长股”。
第二类：原地踏步，数十年如一日，公司保持原来的规模，在通货膨胀侵蚀下，股票的价值其实是下降了。30年前的1万现在还是1万，数额没有减少，但价值已贬值了数倍。
第三类：在股市中消失了。
惟有买进第一类股票的投资者，才有可能致富。
所以成长股是投资者梦寐以求的投资对象。
“成长”是投资成败关键。
然而，成长何处寻？
惟有神舟七号上的太空人，才能看到整个地球，站在地面上的人，是不可能看到地球的真面目的。
同样的，要寻找经济和企业的成长，必须由大处着手，小处着眼。
首先让我们由经济发展的进程来寻找“成长”的轨迹。
经济发展分为三个阶段：
第一个阶段是原产工业(Primary)：人类靠天然资源生存，这个阶段农业和原产工业（矿业、木材业……）在经济中占很高的比例，也是经济落后国家的特征。
第二个阶段制造业(secondary)：是将天然资源加工，制造成商品，在经济中所占的比例，逐渐凌驾原产工业。
第三个阶段是服务业(Tertiary)：是为原产和制造业提供服务的，在经济中的比例越来越高。
当一个国家的经济越来越发达时，原产工业的比例就越小，制造业的比例保持，服务业的比例不断上升，任何国家的经济发展进程，都脱离不了这个规律。
以大马来说，在独立以前，原产工业如锡矿、树胶、木材等在经济中占超过80%，工业和服务分占其余的20%，而在服务中，又以贸易为主。
60、70年代，大马政府鼓励发展工业（颁给新兴工业地位，提供免税优待），工业的比例上升，服务业崛起。
80、90年代以后，服务业起飞，目前已升至占经济产值的40%。
服务业成长火车头
从经济的发展进程，我们可以看到，服务业是经济成长的火车头。
新加坡根本没有天然资源，所以它跨过了原产业，跳过了工业，跃进服务业，不以有形资产（如原产品）创造价值，而是以无形资产（脑力，故新加坡特别重视人才）创造价值，为国创富，将经济推上了先进国的水平，这是明智之举。
将经济进展的模式，套在企业发展上，我们发现，在过去30年中，成长最快的企业，多数是服务业，如银行业、保险业、船运业和娱乐业（旅游、赌业等）。
买进此类企业的股票的投资者，不费吹灰之力，身家已增加数十倍，数百倍，当然，只有长期持有这类公司股票的投资者，才会享受到这种成果，在股市中不断买进卖出此类股票的投机客，不但没赚，反而蒙受亏蚀。明乎此，你就知道我何以不断鼓吹长期投资了。
很明显的，“成长”是隐藏在服务业中。
然而，话说回头，投资的成败，也必须配合国情，不能一概而论。假如你不配合经济的进程，躐等而上的话，也无法从中受惠。
当国家尚处于原产和制造业时，如果你一味追逐服务业中某些新崛起企业，也未必得利。这就说明了，何以投资于自动报价股票的投资者无法赚钱的原因。因为作为小国寡民，我们在这方面没有竞争优势。
尽管大马经济已由纯粹的原产业经济，迈进工业和服务业，但原产业，尤其是油棕业，仍在扩展中，而且我们在这方面，无论在技术，经验和规模方面，占有优势，所以仍有成长潜能，选择这行业管理完善的公司的股票，仍可赚钱。
在任何发展阶段的经济中，在任何行业，甚至在任何个别企业中，都会出现良莠不齐，关键在于管理，管理决定于制度和人才，有了好的制度，好的人才，才有可能提高效率，而绩效决定于效率。
选股首重效率
故在选择股票时，首重效率，效率反映于投资回酬率（ROE , Profit margin……等）。
低价购买成长行业中管理良好企业的股票，必胜！高价买进落后行业中管理不善企业的股票，必败！
一个企业，由小变大，这个过程，就叫“成长”，这种企业的股票，叫成长股。
成长股的特征就是公司的营业量和盈利，与日俱增，结果是股份的价值，也越来越高，股东的财富，也不断的膨胀。所有大马富豪，都是这样制造出来的。
惟有不断成长的企业，才有可能为股东创造财富。
如果你比较过去30年马星上市公司的表现的话，你会发现这些公司可以归纳为三类：
第一类：由小企业变成大企业，这类公司的股票，价值增加了数百倍（1万变数百万），叫“成长股”。
第二类：原地踏步，数十年如一日，公司保持原来的规模，在通货膨胀侵蚀下，股票的价值其实是下降了。30年前的1万现在还是1万，数额没有减少，但价值已贬值了数倍。
第三类：在股市中消失了。
惟有买进第一类股票的投资者，才有可能致富。
所以成长股是投资者梦寐以求的投资对象。
“成长”是投资成败关键。
然而，成长何处寻？
惟有神舟七号上的太空人，才能看到整个地球，站在地面上的人，是不可能看到地球的真面目的。
同样的，要寻找经济和企业的成长，必须由大处着手，小处着眼。
首先让我们由经济发展的进程来寻找“成长”的轨迹。
经济发展分为三个阶段：
第一个阶段是原产工业(Primary)：人类靠天然资源生存，这个阶段农业和原产工业（矿业、木材业……）在经济中占很高的比例，也是经济落后国家的特征。
第二个阶段制造业(secondary)：是将天然资源加工，制造成商品，在经济中所占的比例，逐渐凌驾原产工业。
第三个阶段是服务业(Tertiary)：是为原产和制造业提供服务的，在经济中的比例越来越高。
当一个国家的经济越来越发达时，原产工业的比例就越小，制造业的比例保持，服务业的比例不断上升，任何国家的经济发展进程，都脱离不了这个规律。
以大马来说，在独立以前，原产工业如锡矿、树胶、木材等在经济中占超过80%，工业和服务分占其余的20%，而在服务中，又以贸易为主。
60、70年代，大马政府鼓励发展工业（颁给新兴工业地位，提供免税优待），工业的比例上升，服务业崛起。
80、90年代以后，服务业起飞，目前已升至占经济产值的40%。
服务业成长火车头
从经济的发展进程，我们可以看到，服务业是经济成长的火车头。
新加坡根本没有天然资源，所以它跨过了原产业，跳过了工业，跃进服务业，不以有形资产（如原产品）创造价值，而是以无形资产（脑力，故新加坡特别重视人才）创造价值，为国创富，将经济推上了先进国的水平，这是明智之举。
将经济进展的模式，套在企业发展上，我们发现，在过去30年中，成长最快的企业，多数是服务业，如银行业、保险业、船运业和娱乐业（旅游、赌业等）。
买进此类企业的股票的投资者，不费吹灰之力，身家已增加数十倍，数百倍，当然，只有长期持有这类公司股票的投资者，才会享受到这种成果，在股市中不断买进卖出此类股票的投机客，不但没赚，反而蒙受亏蚀。明乎此，你就知道我何以不断鼓吹长期投资了。
很明显的，“成长”是隐藏在服务业中。
然而，话说回头，投资的成败，也必须配合国情，不能一概而论。假如你不配合经济的进程，躐等而上的话，也无法从中受惠。
当国家尚处于原产和制造业时，如果你一味追逐服务业中某些新崛起企业，也未必得利。这就说明了，何以投资于自动报价股票的投资者无法赚钱的原因。因为作为小国寡民，我们在这方面没有竞争优势。
尽管大马经济已由纯粹的原产业经济，迈进工业和服务业，但原产业，尤其是油棕业，仍在扩展中，而且我们在这方面，无论在技术，经验和规模方面，占有优势，所以仍有成长潜能，选择这行业管理完善的公司的股票，仍可赚钱。
在任何发展阶段的经济中，在任何行业，甚至在任何个别企业中，都会出现良莠不齐，关键在于管理，管理决定于制度和人才，有了好的制度，好的人才，才有可能提高效率，而绩效决定于效率。
选股首重效率
故在选择股票时，首重效率，效率反映于投资回酬率（ROE , Profit margin……等）。
低价购买成长行业中管理良好企业的股票，必胜！高价买进落后行业中管理不善企业的股票，必败！
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