我个人定义的价值投资是：“所谓价值就是价格在上涨前值得买入的目标，并且买了就要继续上涨和增值，而不是一路下跌一半；只要是下跌，任何人都没有资格和不能武断地说它将来有价值，包括巴菲特先生也一样，因为好公司不等于好股票和好价值”。
巴菲特作为一个财富名人是公众关注的对象，近几年在中国尤其风靡，但他在美国这个家乡的粉丝绝对不如在中国多。国内最喜欢讨论巴菲特的就是他的巨额财富来自价值投资法则，但是毫无疑问这些“巴学研究会”的专家小组成员在多年后依然只能认识到巴菲特的一些皮毛，自然传到市场上也就是似是而非的“巴氏投资法”。对于巴老的财富论，我是100% 认同他毫无疑问是世界上所有富人的楷模，也是我辈最值得尊敬和学习的榜样。但这并不等于我们错误的接受媒体对他的神化论，并误导大众的投资方式步入歧途。
巴菲特的价值投资法的核心是建立在“三个都是不要赔钱”的原则上，如果你赔钱，一直赔钱，或赔到已没脾气，那你就不是巴菲特，就算你头上高举巴菲特语录也一样。我对巴菲特的理解是：他是一位在美国稳定金融法规下，通过多个长期成功的价格投机，形成财富效应的价值投资者。如果巴菲特没有价格投机的成功在前，他是绝对不会有之后价值投资的结果。也就是说，任何成功的价值投资者都是从成功的价格投机者开始的。
巴菲特早期就是个成功的价格投机者积累大量的财富，最终成为了全球最成功的价值投资专家。他的长期价值发现成功是基于价格和价值落差在产业中是有起死回生的前提下出手的，他更是名最好的实业投资家。这点国内开始已经认识到了，他的二级市场股票交易只是他的很少一部分，这是国内深圳那里从去年开始迅速刮起“股权投资风”的原因。
当巴老拥有300 亿资金可供投资的话，他的蓝图就是用10 个30 亿介入他所发现的不同的低估资产标，每个标投入的30 亿对地球人来说是很大的数字，对他就是10%都不到的资产。但你是个中国A股的投资人，如果你听信“中国的巴菲特”所说的 贵州茅台 是个长期投资标，而把资金的全部资金30万都押上一个盈利增长速率开始迅速向下的个股，你的风险就大幅度上升了。
任何投资人盲目学习巴菲特的外衣，你是会倾家荡产的。如果国人都想学做巴菲特，这是造神，在中国从来都不缺乏神。要成为巴菲特不是你坚持努力学几十年就一定行，中国的特殊国情以我们的认识，可以肯定而负责任地说，中国不会出巴菲特，最少我这辈子不会看见。因为到目前为止，地球另一边的美国，连小巴菲特都没有出现过，难道你不认为美国肯定会有比你更勤奋模仿巴菲特的大有人在吗？巴菲特这个洋老师为什么在本国找不到衣钵传人，而偏要千里迢迢来中国传道授业解惑广布弟子呢？我们要理解的是巴菲特的成功核心和他老先生对财富的豁达和社会给予他成功后回馈的人生价值观，取之于民众，返回给社会。至于他的方法你能不能转化为财富，这个最近一年在中国A股发生的事实已经完全说明问题了。
几周前收到不少国内的客户来电话和我讨论巴菲特为什么能在这么短的几天内就赚到了80亿美元，我感到很奇怪，有那么好的事情吗？据悉这个消息来自于最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦?巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元，击败微软公司的盖茨，重新登上首富宝座。
下面我用技术分析法来分析图二的周K 线，这个图上我们可以清楚的看到，巴菲特的股价在最近从140,000 美元跌到105,000 美元左右，跌幅是25% 左右，从抗跌性来说是超过了指数，那么是真的波克夏的股价抗跌吗？事实绝非如此，而是因为波克夏股票每天只有1000 多股的成交量(2 个多月前，每天成交量只有几百股，半年前才400 股左右)，想卖的大户无法大量兑现，而小户，一般也买不起这样的股票，所以巴菲特的股东都是美国有钱人，他们的收入原本就非常高。在兑现事实上是不迫切的，因为他们不缺这点资产增长。而是把钱投资在巴菲特这个德才兼备人的信誉、品性和价值观上。如果说是投资巴菲特的成长性，还不如说他们把巴菲特公司的流通股作为资产避风港。但是如果你的总资产一共才只有一股波克夏的股票价值，你没有其他更多的资产性收入，而波克夏公司的股票上升是你唯一的资产性收入的来源，你觉得这个25% 的下跌幅度你能不难受吗？
我们现在长期来分析波克夏的股价真实走势，可以清楚地得出巴菲特公司的成长性，所以最终告诉我们一个事实就是目前中国国内对巴菲特的各种声音都是只注重一层表面现象，而传言上的距离和实质性事实是不一样的。我们看巴菲特公司股价的8 年走势图解就能理解这些。
从2000-2008 年巴菲特的财富增值200% 多，但是美国很多股票在2002 年底股灾结束的短短6 年内，价格上升了1,000%，对，就是增值10 倍以上，这样的股票最少有30 个。我们用市场的事实说明8 年的200% 增值和6 年的1,000% 增值，哪个更有效？巴菲特的股票基本上只能纸上增值而很难全部兑成现金资产，而那些涨幅1,000% 的股票短短几天就能完成金融资产到现金资产的转变，你说选择哪个？
波克夏的股价月K 线完全说明了他的股票是富人避风港的游戏，但不是增值成长后能兑现的选择标。巴菲特的股价是从美国股灾开始后从熊变牛，2000 年初股价最低在45,000美元，美国熊市开始了，在股灾中富人就把大量的资产不断买入成交量稀少的波克夏股票作为避风港。8 年中这个接力棒游戏不断。而一般的美国投资者也买不起即便是45,000 美元一股的巴菲特股票。
国内机构有种观点就是把茅台做成巴菲特在国内的样板。这从基金抱团取暖来说，茅台股是有些象波克夏投资者的做法。可是想把茅台变成超级成长股的“中国小巴菲特们”没明白，茅台的成交量、流通股和总股数在那里，茅台股的本身结构性和波克夏股票完全不同，如果茅台的总盘子是只有100 万股，每股高达100,000 元一股，每天成交低于1000 股，那几个大基金自己能扛。只要超过50 个基金，茅台是扛不住的，这点波克夏最近的走势也说明了这些。不少股东在140,000 美元上开始兑现，造成成交量上升。
我过去一年中建议机构投资者卖出 贵州茅台的解析图，当超级牛市进入尾声和开始熊途的时候，一般都要迅速作出反应卖出金融资产折成现金资产。我肯定 “巴菲特本人投资贵州茅台”一定会早卖了，可见中国的小巴菲特们没有学到巴老的精髓。想想看为什么巴老在那么早就卖出 中石油而没坚持10 年持有这个亚洲最赚钱公司的价值呢?
当然巴菲特的名声在外，他的股票基本上还是相对稳定的。如果中国A 股市场上，有个专家要把中国茅台的股票投资和巴菲特的波克夏公司挂钩比较，这里我解析全部实真相。
我认为这样的投资专家并不了解股票和金融资本市场投资的核心和事实是么，不是言必崇拜巴菲特，自己模仿后就是他的接班人的，而且这样的“巴学专家”是害死一大批没有受过金融资本风险基础教育的中国普通投资大众。
因为所谓的价值资一旦发生质变，其跌幅之惨烈是令你无法想象的， 中国平安于富通股价刚刚大幅度滑后发现它是“价值投资”的目标，结果买入后“富通的价值几乎跌归零”了，中国平安150 亿的价值投资一年就这样血本无归了，就是最好的例子。在资本市场上，误己最你赔光所有资产，一切回归到从新开始。但是误人，那就会“大家很生气，后果很严重”。
Friday, October 17, 2008
Buffett says he's buying U.S. stocks
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is buying U.S. stocks, he wrote in an opinion column in the New York Times.
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett wrote in the paper.
Buffett acknowledged the economic news was bad, with the financial world in a mess, unemployment rising and business activity faltering.
"What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up," he said. "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
Buffett, who made his money by building his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc into a $199 billion conglomerate, wrote that investors were right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions.
"But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," he said.
Buffett said major companies would suffer earnings hiccups, but added they "will be setting new profit records five, 10 and 20 years from now."
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett wrote in the paper.
Buffett acknowledged the economic news was bad, with the financial world in a mess, unemployment rising and business activity faltering.
"What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up," he said. "So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
Buffett, who made his money by building his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc into a $199 billion conglomerate, wrote that investors were right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions.
"But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," he said.
Buffett said major companies would suffer earnings hiccups, but added they "will be setting new profit records five, 10 and 20 years from now."
Thursday, October 16, 2008
谢国忠：资产价格还原
谢国忠：股市将迎较大规模反弹 时间或持续一个月
凤凰卫视10月14日播出节目“谢国忠：股市将迎较大规模反弹 时间或持续一个月”，以下是文字实录：
曾瀞漪：现在全球央行有不同的协调行动开始在救市，目前情况看起来，你觉得效果怎么样？
抓住短线病根：股本金不足注资银行
谢国忠：这一轮的话，我觉得在它基本上找到短线的一个市场的病根在哪里？那就是银行的股本金不足，所以现在政府借钱注资银行，暂时会带来一定的稳定。
核心问题：资产价格还原经济衰退难挡
谢国忠：核心问题就是资产价格还原，房地产价格还原，然后会引起经济的衰退，这个问题就挡不住的。
谢国忠：所以我们现在看到的是一个熊市里面的一个反弹，这个反弹规模会比较大，可能会维持一个月，甚至更长的时间。
谢国忠：但是熊市还远远没有结束，必须要等经济调整，我们才会有新一轮的牛市。
凤凰卫视10月14日播出节目“谢国忠：股市将迎较大规模反弹 时间或持续一个月”，以下是文字实录：
曾瀞漪：现在全球央行有不同的协调行动开始在救市，目前情况看起来，你觉得效果怎么样？
抓住短线病根：股本金不足注资银行
谢国忠：这一轮的话，我觉得在它基本上找到短线的一个市场的病根在哪里？那就是银行的股本金不足，所以现在政府借钱注资银行，暂时会带来一定的稳定。
核心问题：资产价格还原经济衰退难挡
谢国忠：核心问题就是资产价格还原，房地产价格还原，然后会引起经济的衰退，这个问题就挡不住的。
谢国忠：所以我们现在看到的是一个熊市里面的一个反弹，这个反弹规模会比较大，可能会维持一个月，甚至更长的时间。
谢国忠：但是熊市还远远没有结束，必须要等经济调整，我们才会有新一轮的牛市。
预见美国金融危机, 罗比尼爆红
当华尔街哀鸿遍野之际，二○○六年就预见这场危机的纽约大学教授罗比尼( Nouriel Roubini)，因预测精准一夕爆红，现为当前最火红的经济学家。罗比尼表示，美国将经历至少两年的经济衰退，最坏的情况可能是长达十年的成长停滞。
《纽约时报》称罗比尼是“末日博士”(Dr. Doom)，二○○六年国际经济情势欣欣向荣，罗比尼在国际货币基金的会议上，却预言房市将拖垮经济，数百万人因无法支付房贷，重创不动产抵押的金融业，随之引发惨重骨牌效应。
罗比尼两年前发表有关论文时，没有人严肃看待，甚至一名专家在评论时，批评他缺乏数学架构。如今证实他的先前预言正确，各界立刻对他另眼相看，罗比尼随即成为最抢手的经济学家，财政部和大集团都抢着邀他当顾问，媒体每天都在等候他下一步的预言。
罗比尼在七月间曾预测，美林、雷曼兄弟、摩根史丹利和高盛等四大投资银行，其命运不是破产，就是必须和传统商业银行合并，经济衰退将走U形，持续十二至十八个月，股市将下跌四十％。事后证明，这些预言几乎全都命中。
罗比尼在网站上的最新文章说，美国金融体系宛如心跳停止，目前金融濒临系统性崩溃。他建议，进行积极的经济和金融改革，同时全球各国必须合作。他甚至建议减息一．五％，因为在非常的金融和经济情势中，需要非常的政策措施。罗比尼强调，即使这些措施奏效，也不会在一夜间扭转全球经济的低迷情势。他预测，两年的经济衰退不可避免，最坏的情况甚至可能出现长达十年的成长停滞。
罗比尼现年四十九岁，在纽约大学任教。他出生在土耳其伊斯坦堡，为伊朗犹太人之子，两岁时随家人搬到以色列，最后在义大利定居。他大学时曾先在耶路撒冷进修一年，在义大利米兰完成大学教育后，前往美国哈佛大学攻读国际经济，一九八八年获得博士学位。
罗比尼在爆红之前，运气并不是很好，之前曾在耶鲁大学任教，但未能顺利得到终身职教授职位，后来转到纽约大学史登商学院任教。《纽约时报》说，罗比尼的数学才华和对经济的直觉判断，使他能够精准预测出景气危机，
罗比尼在一九九七年亚洲遭逢金融风暴时，成立全球经济观测网﹝www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini﹞，当初默默无闻的个人网站，如今成为投资人、政府官员和媒体关注的热门网站。
《纽约时报》称罗比尼是“末日博士”(Dr. Doom)，二○○六年国际经济情势欣欣向荣，罗比尼在国际货币基金的会议上，却预言房市将拖垮经济，数百万人因无法支付房贷，重创不动产抵押的金融业，随之引发惨重骨牌效应。
罗比尼两年前发表有关论文时，没有人严肃看待，甚至一名专家在评论时，批评他缺乏数学架构。如今证实他的先前预言正确，各界立刻对他另眼相看，罗比尼随即成为最抢手的经济学家，财政部和大集团都抢着邀他当顾问，媒体每天都在等候他下一步的预言。
罗比尼在七月间曾预测，美林、雷曼兄弟、摩根史丹利和高盛等四大投资银行，其命运不是破产，就是必须和传统商业银行合并，经济衰退将走U形，持续十二至十八个月，股市将下跌四十％。事后证明，这些预言几乎全都命中。
罗比尼在网站上的最新文章说，美国金融体系宛如心跳停止，目前金融濒临系统性崩溃。他建议，进行积极的经济和金融改革，同时全球各国必须合作。他甚至建议减息一．五％，因为在非常的金融和经济情势中，需要非常的政策措施。罗比尼强调，即使这些措施奏效，也不会在一夜间扭转全球经济的低迷情势。他预测，两年的经济衰退不可避免，最坏的情况甚至可能出现长达十年的成长停滞。
罗比尼现年四十九岁，在纽约大学任教。他出生在土耳其伊斯坦堡，为伊朗犹太人之子，两岁时随家人搬到以色列，最后在义大利定居。他大学时曾先在耶路撒冷进修一年，在义大利米兰完成大学教育后，前往美国哈佛大学攻读国际经济，一九八八年获得博士学位。
罗比尼在爆红之前，运气并不是很好，之前曾在耶鲁大学任教，但未能顺利得到终身职教授职位，后来转到纽约大学史登商学院任教。《纽约时报》说，罗比尼的数学才华和对经济的直觉判断，使他能够精准预测出景气危机，
罗比尼在一九九七年亚洲遭逢金融风暴时，成立全球经济观测网﹝www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini﹞，当初默默无闻的个人网站，如今成为投资人、政府官员和媒体关注的热门网站。
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
AIA saga: What will happen if every policyholder surrenders policy?
”AIA SINGAPORE has more than sufficient capital and reserves above the regulatory minimum requirements to meet our obligations to policyholders,” said the Singapore-registered subsidiary of the beleaguered AIG in a press statement issued two days ago.
In the aftermath of Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s decision to lend AIG US$85 billion to keep it afloat, how well sheltered are AIA Singapore’s insurance funds in the financial tsunami that is drowning stock markets worldwide?
Despite the throng of crowds at AIA Tower’s main lobby these past two days, a straw poll by NextInsight shows most policyholders are holding on to their policies.
”Yes, I am concerned but if everyone surrenders his policy, fund redemptions will only worsen the financial markets”, said a policyholder.
One of NextInsight’s active forumers, who started the AIA saga thread under ‘scbchan’, is an experienced actuary.
NextInsight interviewed ‘scbchan’, whose real name is Benjamin Chan, for an exclusive low-down on the numbers behind AIA’s claim of being able to meet policy obligations.
We zoomed in on “participating policies”, which account for over half of AIA’s Singapore life policy liabilities.
(Participating policies are the most common type of life insurance policy and allow the policyholder to receive bonuses when the underlying insurance fund performs favorably.)
Asset base to meet immediate policy liability is 1.5 times
AIA's insurance funds are about 75% in fixed income and 20% in equities & real estate.
AIA's total fund assets for meeting policy plus other liabilities as at 31 Dec 2007 amounted to S$14.8 billion with 15% equities and 75% in fixed income.
Assuming the worst-case hypothetical scenario where all of AIA’s participating policyholders surrendered their policies as at 31 Dec 2007, it would have needed to pay out S$8.3 billion, against policy assets of S$12.1 billion for this category.
These figures were drawn from an MAS filing of AIA’s balance sheet. That is, the portion of fund assets for meeting policy liabilities were S$12.1 billion.
Most of AIA's equity investments were in Singapore blue chips, and these would have fallen by 30% since 31 Dec 2007 going by the fall in the Straits Times Index of SGX's top 30 stocks.
Factoring in a 30% drop in equities value, AIA's policy assets would still be around S$11.4 billion, estimates Mr Chan.
This still leaves a buffer of some S$3.1 billion over the S$8.3 billion surrender value.
So what checks and balances exist to safeguard the policyholders' claim?
Together with the insurer’s CEO, an appointed actuary lays out investment guidelines to which the insurance fund manager has to adhere.
This is the fund’s investment mandate, which defines its aims, the limits within which it is supposed to invest, and the asset allocation policy it should follow.
”Even if AIG were to become insolvent, the insurance funds maintained by AIA Singapore are protected by [Singapore’s] Insurance Act and [these funds] cannot be touched by creditors of its parent company,” commented Mr Chan in a recent posting on NextInsight’s forum.
Now with an international reinsurance group, Mr Chan was referring in particular, to section 17 on the establishment of insurance funds.
Section 17 of the Act requires insurers to maintain separate funds to meet the obligations to policyholders for different categories of insurance policies sold.
Categories are grouped by domestic versus offshore, life versus non-life as well as their sub-categories.
Revenues mostly from policies that allow policyholders to participate in fluctuations of the insurance fund's market value.
Life insurance policies are in three sub-categories:
(1) Participating Policy
Backed by PAR Funds (abbreviated from ‘participating’), these allow policyholders to receive non-guaranteed (bonus) payouts over and above the benefit payment guaranteed by the insurance contract.
For example, a S$100,000 life insurance policy may pay bonuses in excess of S$1,000 a year.
Actual bonus amount is dependent on performance of the underlying insurance fund.
The present value of AIA’s policy liabilities in this category amounted to S$12.1 billion as at 31 Dec 2007.
What’s the difference between this and immediate surrender value (S$8.3 billion)? Well, liabilities on the insurer’s balance sheet include future undeclared bonuses as well as the present value of the sum assured.
Conceptually, policy liabilities aggregate the probability of the policyholder making a claim multiplied by the present value of sum assured.
(2) Non-participating Policy
These cost the policyholder less insurance premiums, but do not pay bonuses.
(3) Investment-linked Policy
Investment-linked policies work like unit trusts.
Redemption values fluctuate directly with the underlying insurance fund, but should the policyholder die or become permanently disabled, beneficiaries receive the sum assured and/or the value of the investment units.
So what advice does the actuary have for the man in the street?
"Think hard before you surrender your policy," says Mr Chan.
"AIA will benefit the most, since the surrender values are set such that the insurer profits on pre-mature surrender."
"Your [insurance] agent [will also win], since after the dust settles in the next few months, you will consider buying another new policy and he will earn his upfront commission all over again" cautions the actuary.
In the aftermath of Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s decision to lend AIG US$85 billion to keep it afloat, how well sheltered are AIA Singapore’s insurance funds in the financial tsunami that is drowning stock markets worldwide?
Despite the throng of crowds at AIA Tower’s main lobby these past two days, a straw poll by NextInsight shows most policyholders are holding on to their policies.
”Yes, I am concerned but if everyone surrenders his policy, fund redemptions will only worsen the financial markets”, said a policyholder.
One of NextInsight’s active forumers, who started the AIA saga thread under ‘scbchan’, is an experienced actuary.
NextInsight interviewed ‘scbchan’, whose real name is Benjamin Chan, for an exclusive low-down on the numbers behind AIA’s claim of being able to meet policy obligations.
We zoomed in on “participating policies”, which account for over half of AIA’s Singapore life policy liabilities.
(Participating policies are the most common type of life insurance policy and allow the policyholder to receive bonuses when the underlying insurance fund performs favorably.)
Asset base to meet immediate policy liability is 1.5 times
AIA's insurance funds are about 75% in fixed income and 20% in equities & real estate.
AIA's total fund assets for meeting policy plus other liabilities as at 31 Dec 2007 amounted to S$14.8 billion with 15% equities and 75% in fixed income.
Assuming the worst-case hypothetical scenario where all of AIA’s participating policyholders surrendered their policies as at 31 Dec 2007, it would have needed to pay out S$8.3 billion, against policy assets of S$12.1 billion for this category.
These figures were drawn from an MAS filing of AIA’s balance sheet. That is, the portion of fund assets for meeting policy liabilities were S$12.1 billion.
Most of AIA's equity investments were in Singapore blue chips, and these would have fallen by 30% since 31 Dec 2007 going by the fall in the Straits Times Index of SGX's top 30 stocks.
Factoring in a 30% drop in equities value, AIA's policy assets would still be around S$11.4 billion, estimates Mr Chan.
This still leaves a buffer of some S$3.1 billion over the S$8.3 billion surrender value.
So what checks and balances exist to safeguard the policyholders' claim?
Together with the insurer’s CEO, an appointed actuary lays out investment guidelines to which the insurance fund manager has to adhere.
This is the fund’s investment mandate, which defines its aims, the limits within which it is supposed to invest, and the asset allocation policy it should follow.
”Even if AIG were to become insolvent, the insurance funds maintained by AIA Singapore are protected by [Singapore’s] Insurance Act and [these funds] cannot be touched by creditors of its parent company,” commented Mr Chan in a recent posting on NextInsight’s forum.
Now with an international reinsurance group, Mr Chan was referring in particular, to section 17 on the establishment of insurance funds.
Section 17 of the Act requires insurers to maintain separate funds to meet the obligations to policyholders for different categories of insurance policies sold.
Categories are grouped by domestic versus offshore, life versus non-life as well as their sub-categories.
Revenues mostly from policies that allow policyholders to participate in fluctuations of the insurance fund's market value.
Life insurance policies are in three sub-categories:
(1) Participating Policy
Backed by PAR Funds (abbreviated from ‘participating’), these allow policyholders to receive non-guaranteed (bonus) payouts over and above the benefit payment guaranteed by the insurance contract.
For example, a S$100,000 life insurance policy may pay bonuses in excess of S$1,000 a year.
Actual bonus amount is dependent on performance of the underlying insurance fund.
The present value of AIA’s policy liabilities in this category amounted to S$12.1 billion as at 31 Dec 2007.
What’s the difference between this and immediate surrender value (S$8.3 billion)? Well, liabilities on the insurer’s balance sheet include future undeclared bonuses as well as the present value of the sum assured.
Conceptually, policy liabilities aggregate the probability of the policyholder making a claim multiplied by the present value of sum assured.
(2) Non-participating Policy
These cost the policyholder less insurance premiums, but do not pay bonuses.
(3) Investment-linked Policy
Investment-linked policies work like unit trusts.
Redemption values fluctuate directly with the underlying insurance fund, but should the policyholder die or become permanently disabled, beneficiaries receive the sum assured and/or the value of the investment units.
So what advice does the actuary have for the man in the street?
"Think hard before you surrender your policy," says Mr Chan.
"AIA will benefit the most, since the surrender values are set such that the insurer profits on pre-mature surrender."
"Your [insurance] agent [will also win], since after the dust settles in the next few months, you will consider buying another new policy and he will earn his upfront commission all over again" cautions the actuary.
HMI: Targeting Indonesian & Johor patients
”MEDICAL TOURISTS from Indonesia looking for a lower cost alternative to Singapore are most likely to choose Malaysia,” says Dr Gan See Khem, executive chairman of Health Management International.
HMI owns a 49% stake of Malacca’s Mahkota Medical Center, one of the most profitable private hospitals in Malaysia.
The 235-bed tertiary care hospital received Malaysia’s Healthcare Services Industry Excellence Award from its Ministry of International Trade and Industry for two consecutive years in 2006-2007.
Most of its doctors are Malaysians trained in Singapore, says Dr Gan during a visit by 10 analysts, fund managers and traders to her office in Bukit Merah yesterday.
The facilities and medical equipment in Mahkota Medical Center are comparable to premier private hospitals in Singapore such as the Gleneagles, she says.
What lures Indonesian patients to the Mahkota is the fact that fees for most of its medical services, from doctors’ consultation and surgical procedures, drugs, rental of medical equipment to bed charges in Malaysia are half what they would have to pay in Singapore.
For this reason, Dr Gan expects HMI’s patient load to increase even as the global recession hits hard at the pockets of Indonesian medical tourists who patronize Singapore hospitals during boom times.
Malaysia attracted 386,000 medical tourists in 2007, of which 70% were Indonesians. Industry experts reckon this market will grow 30% a year to RM 584 million by 2010.
Mahkota Medical Center's facilities are comparable to premier hospitals in Singapore.
HMI has 9 marketing offices in Indonesia promoting Mahkota Medical Center.
Dr Gan, who holds a PhD in business administration from the University of Sheffield, UK, said HMI’s patient load rose during Asia’s last recession.
By 1H09 (ending December 2008), HMI will open a second tertiary care hospital in Johor, where there is a chronic shortage of operating theatres.
Named Regency Specialist Hospital, the 61%-owned subsidiary obtained its licence to operate in August 2008.
About 97% of HMI's revenue in FY08 come from the provision of inpatient and outpatient services such as laboratory, pharmacy or radiology, rental of operating theatres and other equipment in its specialist centers, as well as the sale or lease of medical suites to doctors.
The remaining 3% of revenues comes from accreditation programs for nursing professionals, as well as vocational training for healthcare workers.
Meeting a worldwide shortage of nursing professionals
Though education services is a small segment now, Dr Gan wants to increase its revenue contribution.
There is currently a worldwide shortage of accredited nursing professionals, especially in developed nations such as Singapore, Australia and North America.
Chinese nationals at HMI's nursing course. Photo by Sim Kih
Nurses from developing nations are keen on these jobs which pay far more than what they can get at home. For example, in China, they earn no more than Rmb 1,000 a month, versus up to S$2,000 in Singapore when allowances and other perks are thrown in.
However, nursing qualifications from developing nations are usually not recognized by developed nations.
Here’s where HMI fills the gap.
Its School of Nursing attracts Chinese nationals by collaborating with China's hospitals and varsities to offer nursing programs.
Nurses registered in China can also convert their qualification into one licensed by the Singapore Nursing Board by going through HMI’s program.
HMI has the added competitive advantage of being able to secure jobs for trainees after their graduation.
As a recruitment and training partner of Singapore hospitals and nursing homes, HMI Institute of Health Sciences has trained and placed over 1,000 students to date.
Unlike other medical services providers in Singapore, HMI does not operate any hospitals here, which is why local hospitals do not view HMI as a competitive threat. Instead, they show their support in providing clinical attachment and job recruitment opportunities.
HMI Institute of Health Sciences also provides vocational training for adults who wish to be healthcare assistants certified with Singapore Workforce Skills Qualifications (WSQ). The qualification is subsidized by the local government’s Workforce Development Agency.
Like Malaysia’s medical tourism industry, Dr Gan believes demand for continuing adult education tends to rise in recessions.
At market cap of S$38.5 million, HMI is currently trading at less than half the asset value of its two hospitals, which the management believes to be worth over RM 200 million (S$85 million).
HMI generated sales of S$44.5 million for the financial year ended 30 June 2008 and net margins of 10.9%.
Historical price earnings ratio is now at 7.9X.
HMI owns a 49% stake of Malacca’s Mahkota Medical Center, one of the most profitable private hospitals in Malaysia.
The 235-bed tertiary care hospital received Malaysia’s Healthcare Services Industry Excellence Award from its Ministry of International Trade and Industry for two consecutive years in 2006-2007.
Most of its doctors are Malaysians trained in Singapore, says Dr Gan during a visit by 10 analysts, fund managers and traders to her office in Bukit Merah yesterday.
The facilities and medical equipment in Mahkota Medical Center are comparable to premier private hospitals in Singapore such as the Gleneagles, she says.
What lures Indonesian patients to the Mahkota is the fact that fees for most of its medical services, from doctors’ consultation and surgical procedures, drugs, rental of medical equipment to bed charges in Malaysia are half what they would have to pay in Singapore.
For this reason, Dr Gan expects HMI’s patient load to increase even as the global recession hits hard at the pockets of Indonesian medical tourists who patronize Singapore hospitals during boom times.
Malaysia attracted 386,000 medical tourists in 2007, of which 70% were Indonesians. Industry experts reckon this market will grow 30% a year to RM 584 million by 2010.
Mahkota Medical Center's facilities are comparable to premier hospitals in Singapore.
HMI has 9 marketing offices in Indonesia promoting Mahkota Medical Center.
Dr Gan, who holds a PhD in business administration from the University of Sheffield, UK, said HMI’s patient load rose during Asia’s last recession.
By 1H09 (ending December 2008), HMI will open a second tertiary care hospital in Johor, where there is a chronic shortage of operating theatres.
Named Regency Specialist Hospital, the 61%-owned subsidiary obtained its licence to operate in August 2008.
About 97% of HMI's revenue in FY08 come from the provision of inpatient and outpatient services such as laboratory, pharmacy or radiology, rental of operating theatres and other equipment in its specialist centers, as well as the sale or lease of medical suites to doctors.
The remaining 3% of revenues comes from accreditation programs for nursing professionals, as well as vocational training for healthcare workers.
Meeting a worldwide shortage of nursing professionals
Though education services is a small segment now, Dr Gan wants to increase its revenue contribution.
There is currently a worldwide shortage of accredited nursing professionals, especially in developed nations such as Singapore, Australia and North America.
Chinese nationals at HMI's nursing course. Photo by Sim Kih
Nurses from developing nations are keen on these jobs which pay far more than what they can get at home. For example, in China, they earn no more than Rmb 1,000 a month, versus up to S$2,000 in Singapore when allowances and other perks are thrown in.
However, nursing qualifications from developing nations are usually not recognized by developed nations.
Here’s where HMI fills the gap.
Its School of Nursing attracts Chinese nationals by collaborating with China's hospitals and varsities to offer nursing programs.
Nurses registered in China can also convert their qualification into one licensed by the Singapore Nursing Board by going through HMI’s program.
HMI has the added competitive advantage of being able to secure jobs for trainees after their graduation.
As a recruitment and training partner of Singapore hospitals and nursing homes, HMI Institute of Health Sciences has trained and placed over 1,000 students to date.
Unlike other medical services providers in Singapore, HMI does not operate any hospitals here, which is why local hospitals do not view HMI as a competitive threat. Instead, they show their support in providing clinical attachment and job recruitment opportunities.
HMI Institute of Health Sciences also provides vocational training for adults who wish to be healthcare assistants certified with Singapore Workforce Skills Qualifications (WSQ). The qualification is subsidized by the local government’s Workforce Development Agency.
Like Malaysia’s medical tourism industry, Dr Gan believes demand for continuing adult education tends to rise in recessions.
At market cap of S$38.5 million, HMI is currently trading at less than half the asset value of its two hospitals, which the management believes to be worth over RM 200 million (S$85 million).
HMI generated sales of S$44.5 million for the financial year ended 30 June 2008 and net margins of 10.9%.
Historical price earnings ratio is now at 7.9X.
美国标准普尔 (500)指数
本栏于今年9月18日曾论及此指数长期跌势刚刚开始，加上周期可能延至2013年，指数一旦跌穿1095点，则将朝2002年10月10日的768.63点前进。
当时此指数为1206.51点左右。果然，指数过后以“飞流直下三千尺”的姿态，于10月6日穿下上述的1095点，并于10月10日更下试839.80点。
由于其每月一杆图中的“方向指示”已呈下跌方向，而且是刚起步，因此，跌穿768.63点已是指日可待。目前任何回扯皆为脱身良机，一旦跌穿768.63点，则指数当朝400点的支撑线进发，正是“宜将剩勇追穷寇”。
当时此指数为1206.51点左右。果然，指数过后以“飞流直下三千尺”的姿态，于10月6日穿下上述的1095点，并于10月10日更下试839.80点。
由于其每月一杆图中的“方向指示”已呈下跌方向，而且是刚起步，因此，跌穿768.63点已是指日可待。目前任何回扯皆为脱身良机，一旦跌穿768.63点，则指数当朝400点的支撑线进发，正是“宜将剩勇追穷寇”。
Federal bank buy-in no economic quick-fix
Government's $250 billion move into banking won't lead to quick economic recovery
With any luck, the government's quarter-trillion dollar cash infusion in banks will get them lending again, but the radical move won't quickly turn around the tottering economy.
The pain will almost certainly drag on as vanishing jobs, shrinking paychecks and nest eggs, and slumping home values continue to force millions of Americans to pull back.
Sales at the nation's retailers are expected to drop in September even as they get a break from record-high energy prices. Uncertainty about the economy -- and their own financial fortunes -- probably will force consumers and businesses alike to hunker down further, spelling more problems for the already troubled economy.
Anxiety about the economy is the No. 1 concern of voters. With the presidential election just weeks away, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican rival John McCain are working furiously to convince people that each is the best choice to steer the economy through these perilous times.
In addition to September retail sales numbers, other economic data out Wednesday is expected to show that even though the recent retreat in energy prices calmed inflation at the wholesale level bit, costs are still high and are squeezing businesses.
Many economists believe the country is on the edge of -- or already in -- its first recession since 2001.
If the government's new plan works -- it will merely cushion the blow. Democrats on Capitol Hill are pushing for another round of stimulus that could cost as much as $150 billion, an effort to provide additional relief and lift the country out of the doldrums.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide an up-to-date assessment of the country's economic and financial challenges in a speech in New York on Wednesday.
Big banks started falling in line Tuesday behind the rejiggered bailout plan that will have the government forking over as much as $250 billion in exchange for partial ownership -- putting the world's bastion of capitalism and free markets squarely in the banking business.
Some early signs were hopeful for the latest in a flurry of radical efforts to save the nation's financial system: Credit was a bit easier to come by. And stocks were down but not alarmingly so after Monday's stratospheric leap.
The new plan, President Bush declared, is "not intended to take over the free market but to preserve it."
It's all about cash and confidence and persuading banks to lend money more freely again. Those are all critical ingredients to getting financial markets to function more normally and reviving the economy.
The big question: Will it work?
There was a mix of hope and skepticism on that front. Unprecedented steps recently taken -- including hefty interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in a coordinated assault just last week -- have failed to break through the credit clog and the panicky mind-set gripping investors on Wall Street and around the globe.
The Dow Jones industrials declined 77 points on Tuesday after piling up their biggest point gain in history on Monday on news of Europe's rescue plan and in anticipation of the United States' new measures.
Initially the U.S. government will pour $125 billion into nine major banks with the hope that they will use the money to rebuild their reserves and to increase lending to consumers and businesses. Another $125 billion will be made available this year to other banks -- if they need it -- for cash infusions.
In return, the government will get ownership stakes in the financial institutions. Banks, meanwhile, will have to accept limitations on executives' compensation.
"Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans -- me included," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in announcing the initiative. "Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable."
Whether the $250 billion will be sufficient to encourage banks to lend again is hard to tell, said Anil Kashyap, professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. The Treasury Department arrived at the $250 billion figure after consulting with banking regulators.
"This plan will work if we wind up with everybody pretty well capitalized," Kashyap said. "But if it doesn't reach that point, we'll be back in soup down the road."
The government is counting on banks not to just clutch onto the cash, which aggravated the credit crisis to begin with.
"The needs of our economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it," Paulson said.
Treasury switched gears, deciding to first use a chunk of the $700 billion from the recently enacted financial bailout package to pay for taking partial ownership stakes in banks, rather than using the money to buy rotten debts from financial institutions. The government said it still intends to buy the bad mortgages and other toxic assets, another move aimed at getting credit flowing again.
Besides the $250 billion this year on the stock purchases, Bush said Tuesday that an additional $100 billion would be needed in connection with covering bad assets. That would leave $350 billion of the $700 billion program, presumably to be spent by the next president.
Economists as well as both Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill had urged Treasury to first move forward on the capital injection plan, arguing that was a more effective way to battle the financial crisis.
The first bank to take advantage of the program was Bank of New York Mellon which announced it would sell $3 billion in preferred shares to the Treasury. Other banks initially participating include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Corp., including the soon-to-acquired Merrill Lynch, Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., and State Street Corp.
The government's cash infusions are attractive to banks because they are having trouble getting money from elsewhere. Skittish investors have cut them off, moving their money into safer Treasury securities. Financial institutions are hoarding whatever cash they have rather than lending it to each other or customers.
Two other initiatives also were unveiled to stem the credit crisis: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. launched an insurance fund to temporarily guarantee new issues of bank debt -- fully protecting the money even if the institution fails.
And, the FDIC will start providing unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest bearing accounts, which are mainly used by businesses to cover payrolls and other expenses. Frequently these accounts exceed the current $250,000 insurance limit, so the expanded insurance should discourage nervous companies from pulling their money out. Both of these efforts would be financed by fees charged to participating financial institutions -- not money from the bailout package.
Even if the new plan works, economists caution that it could take years before locked up lending returns to normal.
With any luck, the government's quarter-trillion dollar cash infusion in banks will get them lending again, but the radical move won't quickly turn around the tottering economy.
The pain will almost certainly drag on as vanishing jobs, shrinking paychecks and nest eggs, and slumping home values continue to force millions of Americans to pull back.
Sales at the nation's retailers are expected to drop in September even as they get a break from record-high energy prices. Uncertainty about the economy -- and their own financial fortunes -- probably will force consumers and businesses alike to hunker down further, spelling more problems for the already troubled economy.
Anxiety about the economy is the No. 1 concern of voters. With the presidential election just weeks away, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican rival John McCain are working furiously to convince people that each is the best choice to steer the economy through these perilous times.
In addition to September retail sales numbers, other economic data out Wednesday is expected to show that even though the recent retreat in energy prices calmed inflation at the wholesale level bit, costs are still high and are squeezing businesses.
Many economists believe the country is on the edge of -- or already in -- its first recession since 2001.
If the government's new plan works -- it will merely cushion the blow. Democrats on Capitol Hill are pushing for another round of stimulus that could cost as much as $150 billion, an effort to provide additional relief and lift the country out of the doldrums.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide an up-to-date assessment of the country's economic and financial challenges in a speech in New York on Wednesday.
Big banks started falling in line Tuesday behind the rejiggered bailout plan that will have the government forking over as much as $250 billion in exchange for partial ownership -- putting the world's bastion of capitalism and free markets squarely in the banking business.
Some early signs were hopeful for the latest in a flurry of radical efforts to save the nation's financial system: Credit was a bit easier to come by. And stocks were down but not alarmingly so after Monday's stratospheric leap.
The new plan, President Bush declared, is "not intended to take over the free market but to preserve it."
It's all about cash and confidence and persuading banks to lend money more freely again. Those are all critical ingredients to getting financial markets to function more normally and reviving the economy.
The big question: Will it work?
There was a mix of hope and skepticism on that front. Unprecedented steps recently taken -- including hefty interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in a coordinated assault just last week -- have failed to break through the credit clog and the panicky mind-set gripping investors on Wall Street and around the globe.
The Dow Jones industrials declined 77 points on Tuesday after piling up their biggest point gain in history on Monday on news of Europe's rescue plan and in anticipation of the United States' new measures.
Initially the U.S. government will pour $125 billion into nine major banks with the hope that they will use the money to rebuild their reserves and to increase lending to consumers and businesses. Another $125 billion will be made available this year to other banks -- if they need it -- for cash infusions.
In return, the government will get ownership stakes in the financial institutions. Banks, meanwhile, will have to accept limitations on executives' compensation.
"Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans -- me included," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in announcing the initiative. "Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable."
Whether the $250 billion will be sufficient to encourage banks to lend again is hard to tell, said Anil Kashyap, professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. The Treasury Department arrived at the $250 billion figure after consulting with banking regulators.
"This plan will work if we wind up with everybody pretty well capitalized," Kashyap said. "But if it doesn't reach that point, we'll be back in soup down the road."
The government is counting on banks not to just clutch onto the cash, which aggravated the credit crisis to begin with.
"The needs of our economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it," Paulson said.
Treasury switched gears, deciding to first use a chunk of the $700 billion from the recently enacted financial bailout package to pay for taking partial ownership stakes in banks, rather than using the money to buy rotten debts from financial institutions. The government said it still intends to buy the bad mortgages and other toxic assets, another move aimed at getting credit flowing again.
Besides the $250 billion this year on the stock purchases, Bush said Tuesday that an additional $100 billion would be needed in connection with covering bad assets. That would leave $350 billion of the $700 billion program, presumably to be spent by the next president.
Economists as well as both Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill had urged Treasury to first move forward on the capital injection plan, arguing that was a more effective way to battle the financial crisis.
The first bank to take advantage of the program was Bank of New York Mellon which announced it would sell $3 billion in preferred shares to the Treasury. Other banks initially participating include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Corp., including the soon-to-acquired Merrill Lynch, Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., and State Street Corp.
The government's cash infusions are attractive to banks because they are having trouble getting money from elsewhere. Skittish investors have cut them off, moving their money into safer Treasury securities. Financial institutions are hoarding whatever cash they have rather than lending it to each other or customers.
Two other initiatives also were unveiled to stem the credit crisis: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. launched an insurance fund to temporarily guarantee new issues of bank debt -- fully protecting the money even if the institution fails.
And, the FDIC will start providing unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest bearing accounts, which are mainly used by businesses to cover payrolls and other expenses. Frequently these accounts exceed the current $250,000 insurance limit, so the expanded insurance should discourage nervous companies from pulling their money out. Both of these efforts would be financed by fees charged to participating financial institutions -- not money from the bailout package.
Even if the new plan works, economists caution that it could take years before locked up lending returns to normal.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
谢国忠：金融危机后经济将现大萧条 股市当前不可能反转
凤凰卫视10月13日《华闻大直播》播出节目,以下是文字内容：
解说：为挽救全球金融危机，七国央行联手应对金融危机，包括中国在内的20国集团也声明将采取一切经济和金融手段，以保证金融市场的稳定和良好运转。对此，谢国忠表示，出台的一系列救市政策，有助于市场信心的恢复，但经济下滑现实仍不可避免。
谢国忠：现在的市场面临的问题一个是银行破产的问题，第二个是向银行注资的问题，大部分国家都意识到不能让银行破产，所以现在是下决心向银行注资。但问题是在于过去的话，经济的泡沫成分是比较多的，在一个金融危机之后的话，一般经济都会出现大萧条的。
解说：受全球金融动荡影响，美股与周边股市连续受到大幅下挫，谢国忠表示，利好政策推出会让市场出现反弹，但维持时间并不会长，未来几年市场仍然不容乐观。
谢国忠：西方经济出现很大的问题，他们是经济的主要支撑，所以对我们来说的话，经济的不稳定是会维持一段时间，所以股市不可能说是会恢复状况，出现新一轮的上升，这是不可能的。
解说：而面对美国金融市场诸多不确定因素，中国经济同样面临挑战，刚刚闭幕的十七届三中全会强调中国保持金融稳定和扩大内需。谢国忠表示，从短期来看，目前地方政府的财政问题对中国经济影响较大。
解说：为挽救全球金融危机，七国央行联手应对金融危机，包括中国在内的20国集团也声明将采取一切经济和金融手段，以保证金融市场的稳定和良好运转。对此，谢国忠表示，出台的一系列救市政策，有助于市场信心的恢复，但经济下滑现实仍不可避免。
谢国忠：现在的市场面临的问题一个是银行破产的问题，第二个是向银行注资的问题，大部分国家都意识到不能让银行破产，所以现在是下决心向银行注资。但问题是在于过去的话，经济的泡沫成分是比较多的，在一个金融危机之后的话，一般经济都会出现大萧条的。
解说：受全球金融动荡影响，美股与周边股市连续受到大幅下挫，谢国忠表示，利好政策推出会让市场出现反弹，但维持时间并不会长，未来几年市场仍然不容乐观。
谢国忠：西方经济出现很大的问题，他们是经济的主要支撑，所以对我们来说的话，经济的不稳定是会维持一段时间，所以股市不可能说是会恢复状况，出现新一轮的上升，这是不可能的。
解说：而面对美国金融市场诸多不确定因素，中国经济同样面临挑战，刚刚闭幕的十七届三中全会强调中国保持金融稳定和扩大内需。谢国忠表示，从短期来看，目前地方政府的财政问题对中国经济影响较大。
Property can still bruise Asia's banks and economy
Asian banks have largely escaped the worst of the global debt crisis but housing market downturns, especially in China and India, still threaten to pile up bad loans and slow the region's economy.
After property crashes burned Japanese and Southeast Asian lenders in the 1990s, they have been more cautious. So falling home prices are much less of a risk than in the United States, where the subprime mortgage meltdown brought down several leading banks.
Asian banks tend to limit loans to 70 percent of home prices, compared to between 80 percent and full value in the West. And few mortgages are securitized, let alone twisted into the kind of complex investment packages that went toxic as U.S. homeowners defaulted.
But just as in the U.S. and Europe, property booms in Asia are turning to slowdowns, and even busts. With half the wealth of Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and India tied to property, according to CLSA, the potential impact on banks and economies is wide.
"There'll be a drag on economies," said Leland Sun, founder of Hong Kong-based Pan Asian Mortgage Company Ltd.
The Asian Development Bank cut its 2009 economic growth forecast for Asia to 7.8 percent in mid-September from 7.2 percent, but the global financial crisis has deepened since.
After strong run-ups, Hong Kong and Singapore home prices are widely tipped to fall 15 percent next year as job cuts hit Asia's main financial centers.
In South Korea, unsold homes are at a record high, prices are falling and small construction firms are vulnerable. India's property boom fizzled into a price drop of a third this year in some cities, and analysts expect the same in 2009.
But the biggest risk of property loan defaults is in China.
Developers are slashing prices to stem a sales slump, and dragging the whole market. As in the United States, homeowners could flee if they owe banks more than their property is worth.
"People are very mobile and hard to find," said Sun, whose firm sponsors mortgage securitization. "It'll be a real issue."
"IN TROUBLE"
Ironically, many of the property industry's woes stem from Beijing's efforts to cool the market and fend off a crash, by a clamp-down on loans to developers and rules to deter speculation.
A perfect storm swelled up. Home sales plummeted, first in overheated Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south, then elsewhere.
In response, China's biggest property firm, China Vanke, dropped prices by a fifth at projects in Hangzhou and Shanghai and other developers have gone further.
Reflecting the problems, bonds from firms including Shimao Property have slumped on concerns over possible default, as credit ratings agencies downgraded them. Chinese developers sold over $3.6 billion worth of bonds to international investors in 2006 and 2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.
In India, similar events are unfolding, with local media reports saying banks are tightening lending for property after total credit grew 26 percent this year.
Axis Bank, Yes Bank and HDFC Bank have the biggest exposure to developers, at around 12 percent of loans. And just over a quarter of loans at ICICI Bank are residential mortgages.
"Developers are in trouble in India and China because they took on high gearing to expand land banks," said Aaron Fischer, Asia property analyst at CLSA. "You'll see some bankruptcies."
The situation is so dire in China that economists expect the government to back peddle, and fast, fearing the ruin of a property industry that accounts for a quarter of total investment and 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Local authorities have already stepped in, with Nanjing promising homebuyers a subsidy and letting developers delay payments for land.
SLIP-SHOD
The Chinese government needs to bolster public confidence that after a correction of say 30 percent, property prices will fall no further, said Ting Lu, China economist at Merrill Lynch.
"It's a serious risk to China's economic growth," Lu said.
"A year ago China needed to tighten policies to ensure safety of the banking system and to bring down inflation," he said. "But who could have expected a global financial crisis like this?"
But as long as mortgages are new to Asia, around for only a decade in some countries, they present less of a risk than in the West.
Home loans represented only 19 percent of GDP in Japan, 12 percent in China and 5 percent in India, according to CLSA figures for 2007. In the United States, the ratio is 105 percent.
Developers in China and Vietnam describe how homebuyers will turn up at sales offices with sacks of dog-eared bank notes.
In China, for example, new mortgage lending accounted for only a third of the $300 million of new home sales in 2007.
But Chinese banks have been slip-shod in their lending practices, said Pan Asian's Sun.
At nearly $800 billion, loans to homebuyers and developers have jumped to 18.3 percent of the total at Chinese commercial banks from 13.5 percent in 2005.
Bad loans in the banking system stand at 5.6 percent of the total, but economists cite anecdotal evidence that defaults on property loans are creeping up.
"There's not very good underwriting," Sun said. "It's asset-based lending, they don't look at ability to repay."
After property crashes burned Japanese and Southeast Asian lenders in the 1990s, they have been more cautious. So falling home prices are much less of a risk than in the United States, where the subprime mortgage meltdown brought down several leading banks.
Asian banks tend to limit loans to 70 percent of home prices, compared to between 80 percent and full value in the West. And few mortgages are securitized, let alone twisted into the kind of complex investment packages that went toxic as U.S. homeowners defaulted.
But just as in the U.S. and Europe, property booms in Asia are turning to slowdowns, and even busts. With half the wealth of Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and India tied to property, according to CLSA, the potential impact on banks and economies is wide.
"There'll be a drag on economies," said Leland Sun, founder of Hong Kong-based Pan Asian Mortgage Company Ltd.
The Asian Development Bank cut its 2009 economic growth forecast for Asia to 7.8 percent in mid-September from 7.2 percent, but the global financial crisis has deepened since.
After strong run-ups, Hong Kong and Singapore home prices are widely tipped to fall 15 percent next year as job cuts hit Asia's main financial centers.
In South Korea, unsold homes are at a record high, prices are falling and small construction firms are vulnerable. India's property boom fizzled into a price drop of a third this year in some cities, and analysts expect the same in 2009.
But the biggest risk of property loan defaults is in China.
Developers are slashing prices to stem a sales slump, and dragging the whole market. As in the United States, homeowners could flee if they owe banks more than their property is worth.
"People are very mobile and hard to find," said Sun, whose firm sponsors mortgage securitization. "It'll be a real issue."
"IN TROUBLE"
Ironically, many of the property industry's woes stem from Beijing's efforts to cool the market and fend off a crash, by a clamp-down on loans to developers and rules to deter speculation.
A perfect storm swelled up. Home sales plummeted, first in overheated Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south, then elsewhere.
In response, China's biggest property firm, China Vanke, dropped prices by a fifth at projects in Hangzhou and Shanghai and other developers have gone further.
Reflecting the problems, bonds from firms including Shimao Property have slumped on concerns over possible default, as credit ratings agencies downgraded them. Chinese developers sold over $3.6 billion worth of bonds to international investors in 2006 and 2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.
In India, similar events are unfolding, with local media reports saying banks are tightening lending for property after total credit grew 26 percent this year.
Axis Bank, Yes Bank and HDFC Bank have the biggest exposure to developers, at around 12 percent of loans. And just over a quarter of loans at ICICI Bank are residential mortgages.
"Developers are in trouble in India and China because they took on high gearing to expand land banks," said Aaron Fischer, Asia property analyst at CLSA. "You'll see some bankruptcies."
The situation is so dire in China that economists expect the government to back peddle, and fast, fearing the ruin of a property industry that accounts for a quarter of total investment and 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Local authorities have already stepped in, with Nanjing promising homebuyers a subsidy and letting developers delay payments for land.
SLIP-SHOD
The Chinese government needs to bolster public confidence that after a correction of say 30 percent, property prices will fall no further, said Ting Lu, China economist at Merrill Lynch.
"It's a serious risk to China's economic growth," Lu said.
"A year ago China needed to tighten policies to ensure safety of the banking system and to bring down inflation," he said. "But who could have expected a global financial crisis like this?"
But as long as mortgages are new to Asia, around for only a decade in some countries, they present less of a risk than in the West.
Home loans represented only 19 percent of GDP in Japan, 12 percent in China and 5 percent in India, according to CLSA figures for 2007. In the United States, the ratio is 105 percent.
Developers in China and Vietnam describe how homebuyers will turn up at sales offices with sacks of dog-eared bank notes.
In China, for example, new mortgage lending accounted for only a third of the $300 million of new home sales in 2007.
But Chinese banks have been slip-shod in their lending practices, said Pan Asian's Sun.
At nearly $800 billion, loans to homebuyers and developers have jumped to 18.3 percent of the total at Chinese commercial banks from 13.5 percent in 2005.
Bad loans in the banking system stand at 5.6 percent of the total, but economists cite anecdotal evidence that defaults on property loans are creeping up.
"There's not very good underwriting," Sun said. "It's asset-based lending, they don't look at ability to repay."
Former Fed chief says U.S. now in recession
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said on Tuesday the U.S. housing sector faced more losses and the economy was in recession even as authorities moved to stabilize the financial system.
Volcker said the priority for U.S. authorities in the credit crisis was to stabilize the financial system even though that meant heavy government intrusion.
"The first priority is to stabilize the financial system. It is necessary even though the cost involved is heavy government intrusion in markets that should be private," he said in a speech at a seminar in Singapore.
"House prices in the U.S. are still declining. There are still more losses to come there. The economy, I believe, is in recession."
Volcker is chairman of the board of trustees of the Group of 30, an international body composed of central bank governors, leading economists and private financial sector experts.
He is credited for battling double-digit inflation that flared in the 1970s.
He was chairman of the U.S. central bank between 1979 and 1987, before handing the reins over to Alan Greenspan, and oversaw a sharp increase in interest rates to quell the price pressures.
Volcker was asked by a member of the audience if the massive infusion of liquidity by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation or stagflation.
"It's not going to be a problem in the short run. Inflation doesn't flourish in the face of recession," he said.
"It's something we have to worry about when we get out of this recession."
The United States has announced various measures to combat a credit crisis that emanated from the U.S. housing market and which has spread globally.
U.S. authorities are expected to announce plans later on Tuesday to pump $250 billion into the country's banks following similar concerted measures in Europe to revive money markets and stave off a global recession.
"I have been around for a while. I have seen a lot of crises but I have never seen anything quite like this one," Volcker said.
"This crisis is an exception. I don't think we can escape damage to the real economy."
Volcker said the priority for U.S. authorities in the credit crisis was to stabilize the financial system even though that meant heavy government intrusion.
"The first priority is to stabilize the financial system. It is necessary even though the cost involved is heavy government intrusion in markets that should be private," he said in a speech at a seminar in Singapore.
"House prices in the U.S. are still declining. There are still more losses to come there. The economy, I believe, is in recession."
Volcker is chairman of the board of trustees of the Group of 30, an international body composed of central bank governors, leading economists and private financial sector experts.
He is credited for battling double-digit inflation that flared in the 1970s.
He was chairman of the U.S. central bank between 1979 and 1987, before handing the reins over to Alan Greenspan, and oversaw a sharp increase in interest rates to quell the price pressures.
Volcker was asked by a member of the audience if the massive infusion of liquidity by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation or stagflation.
"It's not going to be a problem in the short run. Inflation doesn't flourish in the face of recession," he said.
"It's something we have to worry about when we get out of this recession."
The United States has announced various measures to combat a credit crisis that emanated from the U.S. housing market and which has spread globally.
U.S. authorities are expected to announce plans later on Tuesday to pump $250 billion into the country's banks following similar concerted measures in Europe to revive money markets and stave off a global recession.
"I have been around for a while. I have seen a lot of crises but I have never seen anything quite like this one," Volcker said.
"This crisis is an exception. I don't think we can escape damage to the real economy."
Monday, October 13, 2008
好一个钱可通！
钱可通是香港著名的财经作者。
他曾经出版过多本畅销的投资书籍。其中的一本名为“投资原则128”是我所喜爱的。我曾经多次介绍朋友买这本书，因为我认为书中的投资理论写的很好，是本难得的投资书籍。
当时我觉得能够写出这本书的人肯定是个投资高手。他一定赚了很多钱。
事实是否如此呢？今天我终于知道答案了！
根据他最新出版的书籍：“我如何从股票市场赚到第一个1000万”。他说出了他投资的生涯。
原来钱可通书写这本书的时候是在1991年。那时他刚刚重出江湖，重新踏足股市。
为什么会是重出江湖呢？他不是投资高手么？
原来在这之前他曾经在股市里栽了个跟斗。一个很重很重的跟斗。
换做别人可能已经在股市消失了。
他竟然能够卷土重来，那份勇气实在是另人佩服。
且让我简单的说说他的投资故事……
钱可通在大学时是主修经济学的。他的毕业论文研究的就是关于香港的股市。
所以出来社会后他就开始在股票市场做投资。
那时是1984年。他刚刚出来社会工作。
因为太沉迷投资股票，他只工作了一年就辞职不干，做个全职的投资者。
接下来他就开始他的投资生涯。他从10多万港币开始做投资。
在短短的三年里开了8个番。把10多万变成4000多万。
因为他没有详细的说明这些数目字，所以我就假设它们是16万和4096万。(注：16万变成4096万就是8个番)
第1番变成32万
第2番变成64万
第3番变成128万
第4番变成256万
第5番变成512万
第6番变成1024万
第7番变成2048万
第8番变成4096万
这样子的开番速度是惊人的！
怪不得他自己也说当时的他简直就以为自己是神，赚钱简直是轻而易举的事情。
当时的他当然就是意气风发了！
那里会想到大难临头？这就是所谓的骄兵必败！
刚好1987年有个大股灾。那就是著名的黑色星期一。
年青时的钱可通那里会看过大股灾？所以虽然他投资功夫了得也是一样过不了1987年的大股灾。
在这次的股灾里钱可通的4000多万港币就此泡汤。而且还倒欠了股票行400多万港币。
幸亏家人的帮忙，借了200万给他。
股票行也给他通融，让他慢慢的还那余下的200多万元港币。所以钱可通才没有被判入穷籍。
从云端跌进烂泥巴里。那种失败的滋味绝不是外人所能明白的。
身家变成了负资产日子还是一样的要过。唯一的方法就是去打工。
从个全职的股票投资者要重新的去帮人打工赚钱还债。那绝对不是一件简单的事情。
可是钱可通却做到了！而且做得很成功。
所以钱可通是值得我们钦佩的。失败是成功之母。
也就是因为有这种失败的经验所以钱可通才会写出那本著名的“投资原则128”。
当然也包括了其他成功的书籍。好一个钱可通！
在这样子的情况下竟然可以在短短的三年里还清了债务，重出江湖。
可见他那“人赚钱”的本领也是高超的。
那么他是不是就此安分的工作，做个打工皇帝？当然不会！
因为他实在是太喜欢投资股票了。
只有成为全职的股票投资者才能使他满足。
1990年钱可通下定决心，辞去他那份优厚的工作，带着大约100多万港币重新做个全职的股票投资者。
为什么要放下高收入的工作不做而去做个全职的投资者呢？难道他不怕再次的失败？这就是钱可通。
他所持的理由是：就算再次的失败他照样可以再去打工。为什么不能够再博一博？
我倒认为这是因为他对自己有足够的信心。
信心就是成功的最重要因素。
从1990年至1994年初，在短短的四年里钱可通再次创造了奇迹。
他把100多万港币变成了4000多万。
利害不利害？其实这只是5个番而已！ 四年里开了5个番当然是利害！
他没有详细的说明这些数目字，所以我就假设它们是130万和4160万。 (注：130万变成4160万就是5个番)
第1番变成260万
第2番变成520万
第3番变成1040万
第4番变成2080万
第5番变成4160万
1994年初钱可通赚回了他所失去的钱。
在短短的7年里他就回复元气，从新出发。
从1987年的负400万到1994年的净4000万。
这种成绩怎样叫人不佩服？
好一个钱可通！佩服！佩服！
他曾经出版过多本畅销的投资书籍。其中的一本名为“投资原则128”是我所喜爱的。我曾经多次介绍朋友买这本书，因为我认为书中的投资理论写的很好，是本难得的投资书籍。
当时我觉得能够写出这本书的人肯定是个投资高手。他一定赚了很多钱。
事实是否如此呢？今天我终于知道答案了！
根据他最新出版的书籍：“我如何从股票市场赚到第一个1000万”。他说出了他投资的生涯。
原来钱可通书写这本书的时候是在1991年。那时他刚刚重出江湖，重新踏足股市。
为什么会是重出江湖呢？他不是投资高手么？
原来在这之前他曾经在股市里栽了个跟斗。一个很重很重的跟斗。
换做别人可能已经在股市消失了。
他竟然能够卷土重来，那份勇气实在是另人佩服。
且让我简单的说说他的投资故事……
钱可通在大学时是主修经济学的。他的毕业论文研究的就是关于香港的股市。
所以出来社会后他就开始在股票市场做投资。
那时是1984年。他刚刚出来社会工作。
因为太沉迷投资股票，他只工作了一年就辞职不干，做个全职的投资者。
接下来他就开始他的投资生涯。他从10多万港币开始做投资。
在短短的三年里开了8个番。把10多万变成4000多万。
因为他没有详细的说明这些数目字，所以我就假设它们是16万和4096万。(注：16万变成4096万就是8个番)
第1番变成32万
第2番变成64万
第3番变成128万
第4番变成256万
第5番变成512万
第6番变成1024万
第7番变成2048万
第8番变成4096万
这样子的开番速度是惊人的！
怪不得他自己也说当时的他简直就以为自己是神，赚钱简直是轻而易举的事情。
当时的他当然就是意气风发了！
那里会想到大难临头？这就是所谓的骄兵必败！
刚好1987年有个大股灾。那就是著名的黑色星期一。
年青时的钱可通那里会看过大股灾？所以虽然他投资功夫了得也是一样过不了1987年的大股灾。
在这次的股灾里钱可通的4000多万港币就此泡汤。而且还倒欠了股票行400多万港币。
幸亏家人的帮忙，借了200万给他。
股票行也给他通融，让他慢慢的还那余下的200多万元港币。所以钱可通才没有被判入穷籍。
从云端跌进烂泥巴里。那种失败的滋味绝不是外人所能明白的。
身家变成了负资产日子还是一样的要过。唯一的方法就是去打工。
从个全职的股票投资者要重新的去帮人打工赚钱还债。那绝对不是一件简单的事情。
可是钱可通却做到了！而且做得很成功。
所以钱可通是值得我们钦佩的。失败是成功之母。
也就是因为有这种失败的经验所以钱可通才会写出那本著名的“投资原则128”。
当然也包括了其他成功的书籍。好一个钱可通！
在这样子的情况下竟然可以在短短的三年里还清了债务，重出江湖。
可见他那“人赚钱”的本领也是高超的。
那么他是不是就此安分的工作，做个打工皇帝？当然不会！
因为他实在是太喜欢投资股票了。
只有成为全职的股票投资者才能使他满足。
1990年钱可通下定决心，辞去他那份优厚的工作，带着大约100多万港币重新做个全职的股票投资者。
为什么要放下高收入的工作不做而去做个全职的投资者呢？难道他不怕再次的失败？这就是钱可通。
他所持的理由是：就算再次的失败他照样可以再去打工。为什么不能够再博一博？
我倒认为这是因为他对自己有足够的信心。
信心就是成功的最重要因素。
从1990年至1994年初，在短短的四年里钱可通再次创造了奇迹。
他把100多万港币变成了4000多万。
利害不利害？其实这只是5个番而已！ 四年里开了5个番当然是利害！
他没有详细的说明这些数目字，所以我就假设它们是130万和4160万。 (注：130万变成4160万就是5个番)
第1番变成260万
第2番变成520万
第3番变成1040万
第4番变成2080万
第5番变成4160万
1994年初钱可通赚回了他所失去的钱。
在短短的7年里他就回复元气，从新出发。
从1987年的负400万到1994年的净4000万。
这种成绩怎样叫人不佩服？
好一个钱可通！佩服！佩服！
打工仔的生天
打工仔的最大期望，是获得年功加俸，其次是年终获得更多花红。
这样的期望，是再正常不过。
为了达成这个期望，他们全力以赴，把全部时间和精力，倾注在工作上，希望他们的工作表现，受到赏识，从而获升级，更高的加薪，更多的花红，从而改善生活。
这样做没有错，实际上身为员工，竭尽所能，为公司服务，也是应尽的本份。
问题是在通货膨胀的压力下，单靠薪金收入，要改善生活，提升生活素质，难乎其难。
“提襟见肘”是大部份打工仔的写照。在七除八扣之后，每个月所能储蓄的款项很有限。
如果这有限的款项，又长期存放在银行，收取低微的利息的话，要打破贫穷的桎梏，简直是难如登天。
要兼职赚取外快吗？多数公司不允许员工这样做，以免影响他们的工作表现；况且人的精力有限，要做好一份工作已不容易，再找一份兼职，简直是精力透支，精神上和体力上都难以应付，所以，兼职是走不通的。
钱不够用，兼职行不通，是大部份打工仔所面对的困境。
他们就这样无可奈何地生活下去，对人生，有一份无力感。
要突破这个困境，不是不可能，但第一要有守纪律的精神，第二要有为一个终极目标的决心。
改善财务状况
首先，打工仔一定要记住，要改善你的财务状况，要在晚年有生活保障，要让儿女受良好的教育，单靠薪金收入是无法做到的。
除了极少数身居高职者外，総大部份受薪者都难以改善生活，都无法提升生活素质－－除非你学习投资，学习投资就是学习如何让别人替你赚钱。
靠自己的精力去赚钱，精力有限，收入也就有限。有限的收入，如何能应付无穷无尽的通胀压力？
这简直是螳臂挡车。靠别人的力量替我‘赚钱’，潜能无限。
所有富人的钱，都是别人替他赚的，这个别人，就是受薪者，就是你！
请别误会，以为我指受薪者受到剥削。“剥削”已是一个过时的名词，在我们的先辈以卖猪仔的身份漂洋过海的时代，员工受到剥削的情况是存在的，在工商百业兴盛的当代，老板需要员工多过员工需要老板，劳资双方公平交易，劳工受到劳工法令的保护，剥削的问题根本不存在，这也是“工会”有式微趋向的原因。
受薪者没有受到剥削，不等于受薪者能单靠薪金致富。
要致富，需投资。
投资是学习如何靠别人替我们赚钱，如何通过钱赚钱而累积财富。
赚钱的方式很多，做生意是最多人从事的行业。最好的方法，当然是亲自“下海”，因为你掌握自己的命运。
若无此能耐，退而求其次，是搭顺风车。搭顺风车是因为你没有能力买车。
例如你要从事银行业，既没有执照，没有资本，没有才干，所以，你没有条件从事银行业。
但你知道，只要经营得好，银行业可赚大钱。
惟一的，而且是现成的途径，就是购买上市银行股票－－就是买银行的股份。
你不但可以买本国的，也可以买外国的，如汇丰银行，新加坡发展银行，中国工商银行等优秀银行的股份。
坚持反向投资
只要你坚持反向投资策略，耐心等待，在股价暴跌后买进好的银行股，长期收藏，久久自芬芳。
你不必为你有股份的银行操心，因为有优秀的人才，替你管理，替你赚钱。
你惟一要做的，是做很多的功课，知道什么银行是最好的，在低价时买进，紧握不放。
同样的道理，研究种植股，消费股，工业股，产业股等等，找出最好的上市公司，在股市跌得最惨，在所有的人都悲观时，买进一些，收藏起来，只要有关公司的盈利继续上升，就不卖。
股市每天的波动，是波浪，股市的大趋势，是潮汐，不要理会波浪，只注意潮汐。工作和生活，不要受股价波动的影响。
这样，你的财富会与日俱增。就这么简单。
认真对待投资，认真做功课。
投机如吸毒，要深恶痛绝！
心动不如行动，现在就开始学习投资！学习，学习，再学习！
这样的期望，是再正常不过。
为了达成这个期望，他们全力以赴，把全部时间和精力，倾注在工作上，希望他们的工作表现，受到赏识，从而获升级，更高的加薪，更多的花红，从而改善生活。
这样做没有错，实际上身为员工，竭尽所能，为公司服务，也是应尽的本份。
问题是在通货膨胀的压力下，单靠薪金收入，要改善生活，提升生活素质，难乎其难。
“提襟见肘”是大部份打工仔的写照。在七除八扣之后，每个月所能储蓄的款项很有限。
如果这有限的款项，又长期存放在银行，收取低微的利息的话，要打破贫穷的桎梏，简直是难如登天。
要兼职赚取外快吗？多数公司不允许员工这样做，以免影响他们的工作表现；况且人的精力有限，要做好一份工作已不容易，再找一份兼职，简直是精力透支，精神上和体力上都难以应付，所以，兼职是走不通的。
钱不够用，兼职行不通，是大部份打工仔所面对的困境。
他们就这样无可奈何地生活下去，对人生，有一份无力感。
要突破这个困境，不是不可能，但第一要有守纪律的精神，第二要有为一个终极目标的决心。
改善财务状况
首先，打工仔一定要记住，要改善你的财务状况，要在晚年有生活保障，要让儿女受良好的教育，单靠薪金收入是无法做到的。
除了极少数身居高职者外，総大部份受薪者都难以改善生活，都无法提升生活素质－－除非你学习投资，学习投资就是学习如何让别人替你赚钱。
靠自己的精力去赚钱，精力有限，收入也就有限。有限的收入，如何能应付无穷无尽的通胀压力？
这简直是螳臂挡车。靠别人的力量替我‘赚钱’，潜能无限。
所有富人的钱，都是别人替他赚的，这个别人，就是受薪者，就是你！
请别误会，以为我指受薪者受到剥削。“剥削”已是一个过时的名词，在我们的先辈以卖猪仔的身份漂洋过海的时代，员工受到剥削的情况是存在的，在工商百业兴盛的当代，老板需要员工多过员工需要老板，劳资双方公平交易，劳工受到劳工法令的保护，剥削的问题根本不存在，这也是“工会”有式微趋向的原因。
受薪者没有受到剥削，不等于受薪者能单靠薪金致富。
要致富，需投资。
投资是学习如何靠别人替我们赚钱，如何通过钱赚钱而累积财富。
赚钱的方式很多，做生意是最多人从事的行业。最好的方法，当然是亲自“下海”，因为你掌握自己的命运。
若无此能耐，退而求其次，是搭顺风车。搭顺风车是因为你没有能力买车。
例如你要从事银行业，既没有执照，没有资本，没有才干，所以，你没有条件从事银行业。
但你知道，只要经营得好，银行业可赚大钱。
惟一的，而且是现成的途径，就是购买上市银行股票－－就是买银行的股份。
你不但可以买本国的，也可以买外国的，如汇丰银行，新加坡发展银行，中国工商银行等优秀银行的股份。
坚持反向投资
只要你坚持反向投资策略，耐心等待，在股价暴跌后买进好的银行股，长期收藏，久久自芬芳。
你不必为你有股份的银行操心，因为有优秀的人才，替你管理，替你赚钱。
你惟一要做的，是做很多的功课，知道什么银行是最好的，在低价时买进，紧握不放。
同样的道理，研究种植股，消费股，工业股，产业股等等，找出最好的上市公司，在股市跌得最惨，在所有的人都悲观时，买进一些，收藏起来，只要有关公司的盈利继续上升，就不卖。
股市每天的波动，是波浪，股市的大趋势，是潮汐，不要理会波浪，只注意潮汐。工作和生活，不要受股价波动的影响。
这样，你的财富会与日俱增。就这么简单。
认真对待投资，认真做功课。
投机如吸毒，要深恶痛绝！
心动不如行动，现在就开始学习投资！学习，学习，再学习！
Sunday, October 12, 2008
我的选股方法
根据我的个人经验，选股容易选时难。
选股容易是因为我的投资方法已经大致定型了，我的主力只投资在赚钱的公司，赚得越多越好。
我是用ROE(return on equity)来衡量一间公司的赚钱本领，ROE越高越好。我是用1年，3年和5年的ROE来评定。
根据我的看法，ROE越高的股票就是越好的成长股。所以我选的股票就是高成长股。
我是用这种方式来选股的：
首先我把主要交易板的股票用ROE来分成A，B，C，D，E，五个等级，由强到弱，ROE越高的就越强。
我曾经几次谈过ROE，请看我过去的发表。
无论如何，我以后将会专题研究ROE。
请注意我的未来发表：什么是ROE，它有什么重要？
主板的股票大约有500多只，所以能够入选为A等级的股票大约有100只。我只在A等级里选股。
我不选第二交易板，因为我相信好的股项自动会转来主板，到时再选也不迟。
过后我再用PE，NTA，DY来决定那一个股最值得买。
(PE = Price Earning Ratio)
(NTA = Net Tangible Asset)
(DY = Dividend Yield)
过了ROE我认为PE最重要，所以我就尽量选PE低的公司，因为PE是越低越好。
请参阅我过去的发表：什么是PE，它有什么重要？
过了PE我就看NTA，NTA越大的公司越好，所以我就选NTA大的公司。
请参阅我过去的发表：什么是NTA，它有什么重要？
接下来我会考虑DY高的股票，因为我需要股息来享受人生。
DY就是股息回酬，将来我会专题研究DY。 请注意我未来的发表：什么是DY，它有什么重要？
以上就是我选择股票必看的数据，当然我也观察公司的行业，看那些的前途比较好。
我要求的公司是今年好，明年比今年更好。
根据我的经验，经过了以上的选股法的考虑，通常只剩下不超过10只股让我选择，我最后决定投资的股项很少超过5只。
这种选股方法虽然费时，但是简单。所以我认为选股是容易的。
选股容易是因为我的投资方法已经大致定型了，我的主力只投资在赚钱的公司，赚得越多越好。
我是用ROE(return on equity)来衡量一间公司的赚钱本领，ROE越高越好。我是用1年，3年和5年的ROE来评定。
根据我的看法，ROE越高的股票就是越好的成长股。所以我选的股票就是高成长股。
我是用这种方式来选股的：
首先我把主要交易板的股票用ROE来分成A，B，C，D，E，五个等级，由强到弱，ROE越高的就越强。
我曾经几次谈过ROE，请看我过去的发表。
无论如何，我以后将会专题研究ROE。
请注意我的未来发表：什么是ROE，它有什么重要？
主板的股票大约有500多只，所以能够入选为A等级的股票大约有100只。我只在A等级里选股。
我不选第二交易板，因为我相信好的股项自动会转来主板，到时再选也不迟。
过后我再用PE，NTA，DY来决定那一个股最值得买。
(PE = Price Earning Ratio)
(NTA = Net Tangible Asset)
(DY = Dividend Yield)
过了ROE我认为PE最重要，所以我就尽量选PE低的公司，因为PE是越低越好。
请参阅我过去的发表：什么是PE，它有什么重要？
过了PE我就看NTA，NTA越大的公司越好，所以我就选NTA大的公司。
请参阅我过去的发表：什么是NTA，它有什么重要？
接下来我会考虑DY高的股票，因为我需要股息来享受人生。
DY就是股息回酬，将来我会专题研究DY。 请注意我未来的发表：什么是DY，它有什么重要？
以上就是我选择股票必看的数据，当然我也观察公司的行业，看那些的前途比较好。
我要求的公司是今年好，明年比今年更好。
根据我的经验，经过了以上的选股法的考虑，通常只剩下不超过10只股让我选择，我最后决定投资的股项很少超过5只。
这种选股方法虽然费时，但是简单。所以我认为选股是容易的。
怀疑越多，信心越少
记得刚刚踏入社会的那一年，有一天晚上，朋友驾了一辆新车给我看，那是他爸爸买给他的。
朋友没有炫耀的意图，只是要分享他的喜悦而已。我们同时起步，中学毕业后就进入社会，才短短几个月他就已
经驾新车了，那一晚，我的感受很大，久久不能入眠。
过后，我就下了决心，不是要买新车的决心，而是要致富的决心。
后来，我当然也是买了新车，但是那已经是15年后的事情了。
在漫长的15年里，我的朋友们都陆续的出了新车，只有我依然是用二手车。
对了，我是用二手车追我老婆的。
太太不时都有跟孩子讲：当年和你老爸拍拖，汽车半路抛锚是等闲事。我就喊冤：只是三四次而已 ！
曾经有网友问我：没有新车，怎样找到老婆？
我无言以对，因为我不知道时代已经变了，新车已经是追女孩子的首要条件了。
立下了致富的决心后，我就开始积极的行动：
首先，我尽量的去找书本来读，希望能够做到：书中自有黄金屋。
然后，我就去买多多博采，专攻那个6/49的1赔10万。
我每星期都押个20令吉，希望开正头奖，中个两百万，即刻成为百万富翁。
我不买万字，因为嫌奖金太少，我也不买大彩，因为机会太渺茫。
回想起来，真佩服当年的毅力：骑着电单车，风雨不改，每个星期准时的到多多的投注站报到。
更后悔的是：没有把当年的票根留下来给孩子看。
这就是我开始时的致富目标：中彩。（原来我并不寂寞，很多人都立它为致富的目标）
结果当然是白费心机了，我花了大约两年的时间才醒觉，这条路根本行不通。
把希望寄托在中彩，不需要努力的去储蓄，日子可以得过且过，所以过程并不辛苦。(选错目标，再好的过程也是徒然)
大概就是这时候，我开始醒悟：致富靠的是资本开番，而最容易让资本开番的工具就是股票。
然后我就设定了另一个致富的目标：股票开番。
这是一个疯狂的目标，因为没有人会相信股票可以致富，所以我是非常的寂寞，而且过程也是非常的辛苦，因为股票是需要用现钱购买的，所以需要努力的储蓄。
可以这样说，为了存钱买股票，我放弃了赌多多。
人家省吃省用是为了供新车，而我是为了买股票。
因为太相信股票可以令我致富，所以我就拼命的啃书本，吸取专家的经验，同时大胆的投入股海，亲身体验汹涌的波浪。
（我也无法解释，信心是从那里来的，但是我就是迷上了股票）
从书本上学习股票，然后从实战中累积经验，这就是我的过程。
可以这样说，因为选对了目标，我克服了艰辛的过程。
所以，对于我而言，成功之道就是：锁定目标，迈步前进。
不管目标有多远，总得勇敢的踏出第一步，然后就是第二步，接着就是第三步。
成功之道就是一步，一步的前进。
我告诉女儿：你的投资组合也是一样，你得先有1千，才可以有2千，然后3千，接着4千……如此这样的增长，加上开番的效应，很快的你就可以达到目标了。
不必懂得太多的理论，有钱就先买进，你要先有股票，才有机会开番，如果股票不开番，那就用你储蓄的钱给它开番。（解释：如果投资组合里的股票价值是5千，你再投进5千的储蓄钱，就等于是帮股票开番了）
为什么我这样有信心，女儿投资组合里的股票一定可以开番呢？
因为我知道，它们都是赚大钱的公司。我有信心，赚大钱的公司一定可以开番。
赚大钱的公司就可以开番？这合乎逻辑吗？科学讲究逻辑，因为它需要怀疑。
在需要逻辑的地方就需要怀疑。
但是，怀疑越多，信心越少。所以，信心是不合逻辑的。
聪明人都讲究逻辑，所以他们的信心最少。越聪明的人，信心就越少。
也许就是这个原因，聪明的人比较难于致富。
所以当我说：赚大钱的公司就可以开番。
我是不合逻辑的。我只是靠感觉。感觉给我信心。
朋友没有炫耀的意图，只是要分享他的喜悦而已。我们同时起步，中学毕业后就进入社会，才短短几个月他就已
经驾新车了，那一晚，我的感受很大，久久不能入眠。
过后，我就下了决心，不是要买新车的决心，而是要致富的决心。
后来，我当然也是买了新车，但是那已经是15年后的事情了。
在漫长的15年里，我的朋友们都陆续的出了新车，只有我依然是用二手车。
对了，我是用二手车追我老婆的。
太太不时都有跟孩子讲：当年和你老爸拍拖，汽车半路抛锚是等闲事。我就喊冤：只是三四次而已 ！
曾经有网友问我：没有新车，怎样找到老婆？
我无言以对，因为我不知道时代已经变了，新车已经是追女孩子的首要条件了。
立下了致富的决心后，我就开始积极的行动：
首先，我尽量的去找书本来读，希望能够做到：书中自有黄金屋。
然后，我就去买多多博采，专攻那个6/49的1赔10万。
我每星期都押个20令吉，希望开正头奖，中个两百万，即刻成为百万富翁。
我不买万字，因为嫌奖金太少，我也不买大彩，因为机会太渺茫。
回想起来，真佩服当年的毅力：骑着电单车，风雨不改，每个星期准时的到多多的投注站报到。
更后悔的是：没有把当年的票根留下来给孩子看。
这就是我开始时的致富目标：中彩。（原来我并不寂寞，很多人都立它为致富的目标）
结果当然是白费心机了，我花了大约两年的时间才醒觉，这条路根本行不通。
把希望寄托在中彩，不需要努力的去储蓄，日子可以得过且过，所以过程并不辛苦。(选错目标，再好的过程也是徒然)
大概就是这时候，我开始醒悟：致富靠的是资本开番，而最容易让资本开番的工具就是股票。
然后我就设定了另一个致富的目标：股票开番。
这是一个疯狂的目标，因为没有人会相信股票可以致富，所以我是非常的寂寞，而且过程也是非常的辛苦，因为股票是需要用现钱购买的，所以需要努力的储蓄。
可以这样说，为了存钱买股票，我放弃了赌多多。
人家省吃省用是为了供新车，而我是为了买股票。
因为太相信股票可以令我致富，所以我就拼命的啃书本，吸取专家的经验，同时大胆的投入股海，亲身体验汹涌的波浪。
（我也无法解释，信心是从那里来的，但是我就是迷上了股票）
从书本上学习股票，然后从实战中累积经验，这就是我的过程。
可以这样说，因为选对了目标，我克服了艰辛的过程。
所以，对于我而言，成功之道就是：锁定目标，迈步前进。
不管目标有多远，总得勇敢的踏出第一步，然后就是第二步，接着就是第三步。
成功之道就是一步，一步的前进。
我告诉女儿：你的投资组合也是一样，你得先有1千，才可以有2千，然后3千，接着4千……如此这样的增长，加上开番的效应，很快的你就可以达到目标了。
不必懂得太多的理论，有钱就先买进，你要先有股票，才有机会开番，如果股票不开番，那就用你储蓄的钱给它开番。（解释：如果投资组合里的股票价值是5千，你再投进5千的储蓄钱，就等于是帮股票开番了）
为什么我这样有信心，女儿投资组合里的股票一定可以开番呢？
因为我知道，它们都是赚大钱的公司。我有信心，赚大钱的公司一定可以开番。
赚大钱的公司就可以开番？这合乎逻辑吗？科学讲究逻辑，因为它需要怀疑。
在需要逻辑的地方就需要怀疑。
但是，怀疑越多，信心越少。所以，信心是不合逻辑的。
聪明人都讲究逻辑，所以他们的信心最少。越聪明的人，信心就越少。
也许就是这个原因，聪明的人比较难于致富。
所以当我说：赚大钱的公司就可以开番。
我是不合逻辑的。我只是靠感觉。感觉给我信心。
独孤求胜
踏入社会后我才明白金钱的重要。原来社会是比金钱的，有钱才算成功，没钱就算失败。
在求学时代我对经济一点兴趣都没有，对理财更是一窍不通。
进了社会后我才知道没钱的痛苦，才了解没有储蓄的坏处。
醒觉以后，我就趁工余时间努力的去阅读关于理财的书籍。
几乎每本教人致富的书籍都有提到如何通过投资产业和股票来致富，要不然就是教人如何通过做生意来致富。
奇怪的是，就是没有一本书是教人如何通过帮人打工来致富的。
这使我想起中国人的老话：工字不出头。
怪不得华人都喜欢经商，原来经商才有机会致富，打工是没有机会的。
但是，不是每个人都有经商的头脑。
那么，不懂得经商是不是就没有机会致富呢？幸亏现代的社会发明了股票这东西，原来股票代表的就是生意。
通过拥有股票，我们就等于拥有股权，一家公司的股权。谁拥有的股票数量多，谁的股权就越大。
而且通过投资股票来做生意是不必去亲身经营的，它只是以小股东的身份来持有公司的股权。
原来投资股票就是做生意，就是“钱赚钱”。
产业投资需要很大的本钱，而股票却只需要很小的资本就可以开始了。
所以，我就舍产业而专攻股票。
自从迷上了股票投资，我就努力的去储蓄。
也就是在这时候，我发觉到了复利的奥妙，尤其是26巴仙这个神奇数目，原来每年成长26巴仙，三年后就可以增加一倍。
我发觉到开番的奥妙。原来资本的大小并不重要，重要的是开番的速度。
只要3年开1番，30年就可以开10番。1万的10番就是1000万！
原来要成为千万富翁并不是梦，只要懂得使股票开番就可以了！
1984年我才真正的进入股市投资，开始的本钱是2万元。
从此以后我就开始追求股票开番的乐趣。
我就像“独孤求胜”那样，整天就是想要胜利，想要使自己的股票快快开番。
我想出种种的方法，目的就是要使我的股票开番。结果，我虽然多次的胜利了，但是间中我也输得很惨。
原来开番容易，减番也同样的容易。
在求学时代我对经济一点兴趣都没有，对理财更是一窍不通。
进了社会后我才知道没钱的痛苦，才了解没有储蓄的坏处。
醒觉以后，我就趁工余时间努力的去阅读关于理财的书籍。
几乎每本教人致富的书籍都有提到如何通过投资产业和股票来致富，要不然就是教人如何通过做生意来致富。
奇怪的是，就是没有一本书是教人如何通过帮人打工来致富的。
这使我想起中国人的老话：工字不出头。
怪不得华人都喜欢经商，原来经商才有机会致富，打工是没有机会的。
但是，不是每个人都有经商的头脑。
那么，不懂得经商是不是就没有机会致富呢？幸亏现代的社会发明了股票这东西，原来股票代表的就是生意。
通过拥有股票，我们就等于拥有股权，一家公司的股权。谁拥有的股票数量多，谁的股权就越大。
而且通过投资股票来做生意是不必去亲身经营的，它只是以小股东的身份来持有公司的股权。
原来投资股票就是做生意，就是“钱赚钱”。
产业投资需要很大的本钱，而股票却只需要很小的资本就可以开始了。
所以，我就舍产业而专攻股票。
自从迷上了股票投资，我就努力的去储蓄。
也就是在这时候，我发觉到了复利的奥妙，尤其是26巴仙这个神奇数目，原来每年成长26巴仙，三年后就可以增加一倍。
我发觉到开番的奥妙。原来资本的大小并不重要，重要的是开番的速度。
只要3年开1番，30年就可以开10番。1万的10番就是1000万！
原来要成为千万富翁并不是梦，只要懂得使股票开番就可以了！
1984年我才真正的进入股市投资，开始的本钱是2万元。
从此以后我就开始追求股票开番的乐趣。
我就像“独孤求胜”那样，整天就是想要胜利，想要使自己的股票快快开番。
我想出种种的方法，目的就是要使我的股票开番。结果，我虽然多次的胜利了，但是间中我也输得很惨。
原来开番容易，减番也同样的容易。
根据经济来做出投资决定可取吗 ？
长线投资股票很简单，不需要积极的做买卖。
近来的股市低迷，但是我相信这只是暂时的走势，无伤大雅，所以也乐得忙一点，至少可以让时间过得快一点。
想要靠投资股票来致富是急不来的，我常常提醒自己：我的目标是三年一个番，不是三个月一个番。
简简单单，轻轻松松的开番，靠的就是时间和耐性。
它不需要过人的智商，也不需懂得高深的经济学问。
刚刚碰到一位经济学家，他对东合的自由贸易开放有独到的见解，也对马来西亚的经济有深入的研究。
他那“榴连三论”也开了我的视野，让我了解马来西亚在即将来临的东合贸易开放政策里所将面对的问题。
我问他，随着中国的崛起和东合开放后，马来西亚三个行业的前景如何？
那三个行业就是汽车业，铝业和手套业。(当然我只问这三个我已经涉足了的行业。)
他告诉我最脆弱的行业就是国产车，他认为东合的开放对这个行业的冲击是最极大的。他不看好国产车。
铝业在中国就很多，所以影响总是免不了的。
手套业所受的影响就比较轻微，因为马来西亚盛产橡胶，而且中国的手套厂也很少。
这位经济学家给我的答案其实已经是大家早就知道了的答案。
如果我们根据经济的角度来做投资的决定，那么这三个行业的选择依次为：手套业，铝业和汽车业。
那么根据经济角度来做出投资的决定可取吗？
就拿我所投资的股项来做标准：
2002年初KLCI是696点。今天它是718点。
2002年初RUBBEREX的价钱是2.11令吉。今天它的价钱是2.14令吉。
2002年初LB的价钱是1.25令吉。今天它的价钱是2.01令吉。
2002年初EON的价钱是9.00令吉。今天它的价钱是12.00令吉。
从以上数据我们可以清楚的看出，单单靠经济角度来做投资的决定是不可取的。
近来的股市低迷，但是我相信这只是暂时的走势，无伤大雅，所以也乐得忙一点，至少可以让时间过得快一点。
想要靠投资股票来致富是急不来的，我常常提醒自己：我的目标是三年一个番，不是三个月一个番。
简简单单，轻轻松松的开番，靠的就是时间和耐性。
它不需要过人的智商，也不需懂得高深的经济学问。
刚刚碰到一位经济学家，他对东合的自由贸易开放有独到的见解，也对马来西亚的经济有深入的研究。
他那“榴连三论”也开了我的视野，让我了解马来西亚在即将来临的东合贸易开放政策里所将面对的问题。
我问他，随着中国的崛起和东合开放后，马来西亚三个行业的前景如何？
那三个行业就是汽车业，铝业和手套业。(当然我只问这三个我已经涉足了的行业。)
他告诉我最脆弱的行业就是国产车，他认为东合的开放对这个行业的冲击是最极大的。他不看好国产车。
铝业在中国就很多，所以影响总是免不了的。
手套业所受的影响就比较轻微，因为马来西亚盛产橡胶，而且中国的手套厂也很少。
这位经济学家给我的答案其实已经是大家早就知道了的答案。
如果我们根据经济的角度来做投资的决定，那么这三个行业的选择依次为：手套业，铝业和汽车业。
那么根据经济角度来做出投资的决定可取吗？
就拿我所投资的股项来做标准：
2002年初KLCI是696点。今天它是718点。
2002年初RUBBEREX的价钱是2.11令吉。今天它的价钱是2.14令吉。
2002年初LB的价钱是1.25令吉。今天它的价钱是2.01令吉。
2002年初EON的价钱是9.00令吉。今天它的价钱是12.00令吉。
从以上数据我们可以清楚的看出，单单靠经济角度来做投资的决定是不可取的。
战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人
我最喜欢毛泽东这句话：战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人。（我花了几年的时间才真正的明白这句话的道理）
股票市场就好像战场，所以我们要相信毛泽东的这句话。
可惜，群众都是采用相反的方法，那就是：战略上尊重敌人，战术上藐视敌人。
举一些例子：
先谈战略：
股票下跌，群众会这样想：
有人大量抛售，后面一定有坏消息，我得赶快跟着卖。
现在股票大跌，外资都跑了，我得赶快离场。
股票上升，群众会这样想：
有人大量收购，后面一定有好消息，我得赶快跟着买。
现在股票大涨，外资都进来了，我得赶快进场。
这就是战略上尊重敌人 = 敌人的所作所为都是对的，我得尊重他们。
再谈战术：
公司亏钱，股价却上升，群众会这样想：
管它亏多少，只要股价上升我就高兴了。
公司赚钱。股价却下跌。群众会这样想：
管它赚多少，只要股价下跌我就生气了。
这就是战术上藐视敌人 = 没有花时间去研究数据，就藐视账目。
(实战例子）
2006年8月10日CCB（Cycle& Carriage Bintang ）宣布派发2.08令吉的股息，消息一出它的股价就涨停板，一日之内股价狂升1.53令吉，从2.45升到3.98，共升了62.4%。
从这个案例我们就可以了解群众（在股市里它就是我们的对手，也就是我们的敌人）……了解为什么战略上我们要藐视敌人，战术上我们要尊重敌人。
在消息宣布的前一天（9/8/2006），CCB的股价只是2.33令吉，而且它已经在这价位盘旋了一段很长的时间，在20/6/2006那一天它甚至跌到2.11的价钱。
仔细的研究CCB的账目（这就是战术上尊重敌人），我们就可以知道它的净资产值（NTA）是4.08，所以，长期以来CCB的股价是以低过NTA的价值在市场上交易。
但是，在漫长的日子里，群众好像不知道CCB的股票是以低过NTA的价钱在成交，也许群众都没有做功课吧，但是，那些精明的基金经理呢，难道他们也不知道？
还有，那些CCB的董事老爷们，难道他们也不知道自己公司有充足的现金可以派发2.08令吉的股息吗？
让我把时光倒退到20/6/2006那天……
还有一个多月，公司就要宣布派发2.08令吉的股息了，而今天股票还以2.11的价钱在市场上交易。（几乎是在免费赠送！）
如果20/6/2006那天，我们敢以2.11的价钱买进CCB，那么我们就是在战略上藐视敌人了，因为我们相信群众（包括基金经理和CCB的董事老爷们）都是错误的，没有做功课的，所以我们藐视他们。
（他们都不敢买，我买！）
当然，我们是不可能知道公司就要派发丰厚的股息，我们只是知道它有这个能力而已。
那么我们的信心从哪里来呢？
那是因为我们有做功课，知道公司有充足的现金，知道它的NTA是4.08， 知道2.11的价钱是超值的。
（这就是战术上尊重敌人）
今天（14/8/2006），同样的情况可能发生在Megan……
从账目上我们清楚的知道，Megan的净资产值（NTA）是2.31令吉，去年它的每股净利（EPS）是0.30令吉，目前它只以0.59的价钱在市场上成交。
我们也清楚的知道，刚刚过去的第3季Megan的税前盈利是27m，第4季是33m。
而且经过折旧率的调整，税前盈利要维持在这个水平并不是一件难事，所以我们可以大胆的预测，在新的财政年Megan 的税前盈利可以达到120m。
（这就是战术上尊重敌人）
目前Megan的市价只是120m（205m X 0.59 = 120m），也就是说，以目前的价位投资Megan，一年就可以回本。
一年可以赚120m的Megan ，目前只以120m的市价在市场上成交？
这怎么可能！难道那些精明的基金经理，Megan的董事老爷们都看不到？
不错，他们都看不到！（这就是战略上藐视敌人）
股票市场就等于是战场，所以我们一定要懂得这道理：战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人。
Friday, June 08, 2007
In yet another similar crisis, Megan Media Holdings Bhd (KLSE: MEGAN, stock-code 7101), joined the bandwagon of financially suspect firms saying its receivables, sales costs and inventories had been overstated. Its inventory could have been inflated by as much as 100 million ringgit ($29.2 million), Megan said, adding that receivables amounting to 334.3 million ringgit at end-January and prepayment of 211 million ringgit in deposits for 13 production lines appeared to be fictitious.
Chairman Adam Che Harun could not immediately be reached for comment. Co-founder George Yeo Wee Siong (a Singaporean) who has resigned as a director, declined when he was asked to attend the group's board meeting to clarify possible fictitious transactions.
“Megan said "These investigations have proven to be conclusive and indicate the deliberate falsification of the company's performance by overstating inventory values. The extent of the falsification is deemed to be material. There could yet be more unpleasant financial surprises"
Megan Media, a Malaysian maker of recordable discs, was listed on the Bursa Malaysia second board in August 2000. In 2004, Megan Media bought Singapore-based MJC (S) Pte Ltd, which was also founded by Yeo and his brother Wee Kon, for RM97.2mil. MJC is a floppy disk manufacturing company.
The findings were made by investigative accountants Ferrier Hodgson, who had been appointed by creditor banks. Ferrier Hodgson's initial findings showed MTSB (Memory Tech Sdn Bhd) which is a unit of Megan Media Holdings appeared to have financed the payment of fictitious trading creditors through borrowings and recycled the cash through other entities to appear that repayments were being made by fictitious trading debtors. It said all trading creditors were paid but the payments were actually made to other parties, a move to siphon out the cash from MTSB.
Besides the fictitious receivables and prepayments, it was also revealed that the company's assets could potentially fall short by RM456mil. Hey, isn't this the same case with Bumiputra-Commerce Holding Berhad? Ferrier Hodgson said MTSB may have been involved in fictitious trading over time and that such transactions had been more rampant in the financial year ended April 30, 2007.
So, another new accounting irregularity and the fact remains that the trading debtors and shareholders are being taken for a donkey ride again. What have the authorities done all this while when this entire ridiculous one after another accounting crisis began to balloon? Besides sleeping on the job and the “close one-eye” policy, aren’t it spectacular that such irregularities could happens throughout so many years (you don’t believe it just started this year only, do you?) without any preventive enforcement from the authorities? Have the authorities (Securities Commission) learnt anything from U.S. Enron’s case? If not, why not?
A random check on some listed companies’ accounting could have prevented such rampant cases. Now, the fire has spread what else could the Securities Commission do besides trumpeting another slogan on how the body will take the necessary actions? And can you blame the foreign investors for shying away or not thinking on long-term investment from Malaysia’s stock market? How would you feel as a minority shareholder if one day you woke up to read that the stock that’s in your portfolio actually consists of inflated accounting figures? Fortunately I do not own any Megan or any of those stocks which were frontpaged recently for irregularities, but I weep for those investors affected.
22/04/2008
De-listing of the securities of Megan Media Holdings Berhad
股票市场就好像战场，所以我们要相信毛泽东的这句话。
可惜，群众都是采用相反的方法，那就是：战略上尊重敌人，战术上藐视敌人。
举一些例子：
先谈战略：
股票下跌，群众会这样想：
有人大量抛售，后面一定有坏消息，我得赶快跟着卖。
现在股票大跌，外资都跑了，我得赶快离场。
股票上升，群众会这样想：
有人大量收购，后面一定有好消息，我得赶快跟着买。
现在股票大涨，外资都进来了，我得赶快进场。
这就是战略上尊重敌人 = 敌人的所作所为都是对的，我得尊重他们。
再谈战术：
公司亏钱，股价却上升，群众会这样想：
管它亏多少，只要股价上升我就高兴了。
公司赚钱。股价却下跌。群众会这样想：
管它赚多少，只要股价下跌我就生气了。
这就是战术上藐视敌人 = 没有花时间去研究数据，就藐视账目。
(实战例子）
2006年8月10日CCB（Cycle& Carriage Bintang ）宣布派发2.08令吉的股息，消息一出它的股价就涨停板，一日之内股价狂升1.53令吉，从2.45升到3.98，共升了62.4%。
从这个案例我们就可以了解群众（在股市里它就是我们的对手，也就是我们的敌人）……了解为什么战略上我们要藐视敌人，战术上我们要尊重敌人。
在消息宣布的前一天（9/8/2006），CCB的股价只是2.33令吉，而且它已经在这价位盘旋了一段很长的时间，在20/6/2006那一天它甚至跌到2.11的价钱。
仔细的研究CCB的账目（这就是战术上尊重敌人），我们就可以知道它的净资产值（NTA）是4.08，所以，长期以来CCB的股价是以低过NTA的价值在市场上交易。
但是，在漫长的日子里，群众好像不知道CCB的股票是以低过NTA的价钱在成交，也许群众都没有做功课吧，但是，那些精明的基金经理呢，难道他们也不知道？
还有，那些CCB的董事老爷们，难道他们也不知道自己公司有充足的现金可以派发2.08令吉的股息吗？
让我把时光倒退到20/6/2006那天……
还有一个多月，公司就要宣布派发2.08令吉的股息了，而今天股票还以2.11的价钱在市场上交易。（几乎是在免费赠送！）
如果20/6/2006那天，我们敢以2.11的价钱买进CCB，那么我们就是在战略上藐视敌人了，因为我们相信群众（包括基金经理和CCB的董事老爷们）都是错误的，没有做功课的，所以我们藐视他们。
（他们都不敢买，我买！）
当然，我们是不可能知道公司就要派发丰厚的股息，我们只是知道它有这个能力而已。
那么我们的信心从哪里来呢？
那是因为我们有做功课，知道公司有充足的现金，知道它的NTA是4.08， 知道2.11的价钱是超值的。
（这就是战术上尊重敌人）
今天（14/8/2006），同样的情况可能发生在Megan……
从账目上我们清楚的知道，Megan的净资产值（NTA）是2.31令吉，去年它的每股净利（EPS）是0.30令吉，目前它只以0.59的价钱在市场上成交。
我们也清楚的知道，刚刚过去的第3季Megan的税前盈利是27m，第4季是33m。
而且经过折旧率的调整，税前盈利要维持在这个水平并不是一件难事，所以我们可以大胆的预测，在新的财政年Megan 的税前盈利可以达到120m。
（这就是战术上尊重敌人）
目前Megan的市价只是120m（205m X 0.59 = 120m），也就是说，以目前的价位投资Megan，一年就可以回本。
一年可以赚120m的Megan ，目前只以120m的市价在市场上成交？
这怎么可能！难道那些精明的基金经理，Megan的董事老爷们都看不到？
不错，他们都看不到！（这就是战略上藐视敌人）
股票市场就等于是战场，所以我们一定要懂得这道理：战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人。
Friday, June 08, 2007
In yet another similar crisis, Megan Media Holdings Bhd (KLSE: MEGAN, stock-code 7101), joined the bandwagon of financially suspect firms saying its receivables, sales costs and inventories had been overstated. Its inventory could have been inflated by as much as 100 million ringgit ($29.2 million), Megan said, adding that receivables amounting to 334.3 million ringgit at end-January and prepayment of 211 million ringgit in deposits for 13 production lines appeared to be fictitious.
Chairman Adam Che Harun could not immediately be reached for comment. Co-founder George Yeo Wee Siong (a Singaporean) who has resigned as a director, declined when he was asked to attend the group's board meeting to clarify possible fictitious transactions.
“Megan said "These investigations have proven to be conclusive and indicate the deliberate falsification of the company's performance by overstating inventory values. The extent of the falsification is deemed to be material. There could yet be more unpleasant financial surprises"
Megan Media, a Malaysian maker of recordable discs, was listed on the Bursa Malaysia second board in August 2000. In 2004, Megan Media bought Singapore-based MJC (S) Pte Ltd, which was also founded by Yeo and his brother Wee Kon, for RM97.2mil. MJC is a floppy disk manufacturing company.
The findings were made by investigative accountants Ferrier Hodgson, who had been appointed by creditor banks. Ferrier Hodgson's initial findings showed MTSB (Memory Tech Sdn Bhd) which is a unit of Megan Media Holdings appeared to have financed the payment of fictitious trading creditors through borrowings and recycled the cash through other entities to appear that repayments were being made by fictitious trading debtors. It said all trading creditors were paid but the payments were actually made to other parties, a move to siphon out the cash from MTSB.
Besides the fictitious receivables and prepayments, it was also revealed that the company's assets could potentially fall short by RM456mil. Hey, isn't this the same case with Bumiputra-Commerce Holding Berhad? Ferrier Hodgson said MTSB may have been involved in fictitious trading over time and that such transactions had been more rampant in the financial year ended April 30, 2007.
So, another new accounting irregularity and the fact remains that the trading debtors and shareholders are being taken for a donkey ride again. What have the authorities done all this while when this entire ridiculous one after another accounting crisis began to balloon? Besides sleeping on the job and the “close one-eye” policy, aren’t it spectacular that such irregularities could happens throughout so many years (you don’t believe it just started this year only, do you?) without any preventive enforcement from the authorities? Have the authorities (Securities Commission) learnt anything from U.S. Enron’s case? If not, why not?
A random check on some listed companies’ accounting could have prevented such rampant cases. Now, the fire has spread what else could the Securities Commission do besides trumpeting another slogan on how the body will take the necessary actions? And can you blame the foreign investors for shying away or not thinking on long-term investment from Malaysia’s stock market? How would you feel as a minority shareholder if one day you woke up to read that the stock that’s in your portfolio actually consists of inflated accounting figures? Fortunately I do not own any Megan or any of those stocks which were frontpaged recently for irregularities, but I weep for those investors affected.
22/04/2008
De-listing of the securities of Megan Media Holdings Berhad
悲观时刻就中庸，乐观时刻就积极
在狂热的大牛市里，我会耐心的等待母熊露出踪影。
只要有6成的把握使我相信母熊已经露出踪影，我就会把100巴仙的投资减为50巴仙。
过后，就算母熊正式的出现，我也不会再减少投资了。
50巴仙就是最少的投资额，这就是我的50：100投资方法。
为什么母熊正式出现我反而不再离场呢？因为那时候，股票的价格已经是跌了很多。
看清楚是母熊才想卖出已经是后知后觉了！
而且小母熊能否成长为大母熊还是一个疑问。根据过去的历史，小母熊是会夭折的！
就好像1987年的“黑色星期一”，股市从高峰回退到谷底只是短短的一个多月。
等到我们看清楚是母熊时，股市已经是在谷底了！
这时候才离场就将使我们失去参与下一轮大牛市的机会。
注：黑色星期一过后一个多月，综合指数就从7/12/87的最低点223回升到1/8/90的最高点632。
我认为最理想的离场时机就是在母熊若隐若现的时候。所以我多次的强调6成的机会，原因就在此。
如果说是9成的机会，那么母熊已经是现形了，一切都太迟了！
有6成的把握就要快速的离场。(但是只可以卖出一半！)
如果卖出后才发觉犯错又怎样？就要接受错误，绝不可以再回头。
继续的保持50巴仙的投资，不可以再考虑离场，因为50巴仙就是最少的投资额！
犯了错误就要有GRAHAM那样的思想：无论多么的乐观，最多只可以投资70巴仙。
既然我们已经卖出了50巴仙，就是不乐观了，因此就应该欣然的接受50巴仙的投资！
所以要决定把100巴仙的投资减为50巴仙是非常非常的重要。
也就是这原因，我应用8种方法来帮我做这决定。(三个月理论就是其中一种)
为什么悲观时刻也不能接受100巴仙的现金？
我相信钱存在银行是最吃亏的事情！(也可能是受了PETER LYNCH的影响。)
只赚那微薄的利息是无法“开番”的。不能“开番”就不能致富！
为什么不考虑把100巴仙的现金放在短期，等待机会再进场？
因为我曾经吃过这苦头，我曾经持有现金长达3年。
那个期待中的机会就是迟迟不出现。(不是没有出现，而是跑掉了！)
结果那100巴仙现金，原本打算放短期的，就变成长期了。(对我来讲，那3年就是长期。)
为什么只有50和100，那些30，40，60，70 在那里？
我们把股票和现金各持有50巴仙：
如果股票下跌一半的价钱，我们手上的股票比重就会自动变成33巴仙！
如果股票上涨一半的价钱，我们手上的股票比重就会自动变成60巴仙！
例子1：
50千的股票和50千的现金。
股票价格再跌一半，就是剩下25千。
投资组合的价值也会跟着下跌至75千。
这25千的股票就是75千组合里的33巴仙。
例子2：
50千的股票和50千的现金。
股票价格再涨一半，就会变成75千。
投资组合的价值也会跟着上升至125千。
这75千的股票就是125千组合里的60巴仙。
我的看法是：
只要把股票的巴仙率降至50巴仙就可以了。以后它要变成33巴仙或者60巴仙那就顺其自然了。
为什么50巴仙就是最少的投资呢？举个例子：有两个投资者，一个很悲观，一个很乐观。
很悲观的就持有全部的现金，而很乐观的就持有全部的股票。
把现金和股票各持一半就代表了这两个人。
所以50巴仙就是最中庸的数目。
想靠投资股票来致富就不可以采用悲观的策略，只可以采用积极的策略。
持有少过一半的股票就表示悲观了！
不管对股市是多么的悲观，我们只可以采用中庸的应对方法，那就是持有一半的股票，一半的现金。
悲观的投资策略是不能令人致富的。
所以悲观时刻我们只可以采用中庸的策略，乐观的时刻我们就应该采用积极的策略。
50巴仙的投资就是中庸的策略。100巴仙的投资才是积极的策略。
悲观时刻就中庸，乐观时刻就积极！
这就是我理想的投资组合管理方法50：100。
什么时候该悲观？
要做个成功的股市投资者，我们要大胆的和群众走相反的路线。
所以我们对市场的感受是要和群众相反的。
当群众都“悲观”时我们就要乐观。
当群众都“非常乐观”时我们就要悲观。
关键之处在于：“非常乐观”。
我们要等到群众都“非常乐观”时，我们才可以开始悲观。
要如何知道群众都已经“非常乐观”呢？如果你用嘴巴去问，你永远都得不到答案。
答案只可以从成交量的多寡得之。
当成交量大时，就是群众“乐观”了。
当成交量很大的时候，就是群众“非常乐观”了！
“乐观”和“非常乐观”是有很大的分别。我们重视的只是“非常乐观”。
所以很大的成交量要持续一段日子，才是群众“非常乐观”了！
怎样的成交量才算很大呢？只有去统计过去的成交量，才可以知道。
我手头上有从1993年开始的成交量记录，是“价值”的记录，不是“票数”的记录。
市场上人们只关心“票数”的成交量，而我却关心“价值”的成交量。
我从1993年开始，每天都把“价值”的成交量记录起来。
根据我的资料：
KLSE 的每日平均成交量 (以季来计算) ，只有3次超过20亿令吉。
它们是：
1993年第4 季，每日的平均成交量是27亿令吉。(5/1/1994牛市见顶于1314点。)
1997年第1季，每日的平均成交量是25亿令吉。(25/2/1997牛市见顶于1272点。)
2000年第1季，每日的平均成交量是21亿令吉。(18/2/2000牛市见顶于1013点。)
根据这有限的资料我得到一点结论：(以季来计算。)
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，就是“很大”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，就是群众“非常乐观”的时候了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，我就要开始悲观了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，股市就已经见顶了！
所以我最关心每日成交量的价值！
那么最近的成交量又是多少呢？
2001年第4 季，每日的平均成交量是4亿令吉！
2001年已经过去，2002年也开始了8天的交易日。
那么这8天的每日平均成交量又是多少呢？答案：7亿令吉。
7亿离开20亿还是一段很长的距离。
所以我相信股市的成交量还是会继续的扩大。
以7亿的成交量来看，群众还是悲观。
所以我还是很乐观。现在我只有耐心的等待，等待……
什么时候该乐观？
等待群众的乐观。
当成交量很大的时候，就是群众“非常乐观”了。
为什么说成交量“很大”的时候，就是群众非常的乐观呢？
一般而言：成交量大，是因为换股次数多。
群众换股是因为买进的股票已经有钱赚了！
群众热衷的换股就会制造出很大的成交量。
换股次数越多，赚的次数也越多。赚的次数越多，乐观的程度也就越大。
所以成交量“很大”的时候，就是群众非常乐观的时候了！
股市投资最重要的是和群众走相反的路线。
当群众都“非常乐观”的时候，我们就要开始悲观了。
悲观是不利于致富的。
所以悲观的时刻我们就得采用中庸的策略。(50巴仙的投资就是中庸的策略。)
我们采用中庸的策略是为了等待良机。
良机出现我们就得迅速的采用积极的投资策略。(100巴仙的投资就是积极的策略。)
要采用积极的投资策略，我们得先把“悲观”转为“乐观”。
什么时候我们才可以乐观呢？我们要等到群众都悲观时，我们才可以乐观。
要如何知道群众都已经悲观呢？如果你用嘴巴去问，你永远都得不到答案。
答案还是一样，只可以从成交量的多寡得之。
当成交量少的时候，就是群众悲观了！
怎样的成交量才算少呢？
根据我的资料：(从1993年开始，以季来计算。)
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉以上，就是“很大”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到3亿令吉，就是“很低”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到8亿令吉，就是“中等”的成交量。
我认为成交量少过“中等”的8亿令吉就可以算是少的成交量了。
在这方面，我要求的是“少”的成交量，不是“很少”的成交量。
因为投资致富是要倾向于乐观！ 不是倾向于悲观！
所以只要成交量少过8亿令吉，我就乐观了！
乐观时候，就是采用积极投资策略的时候了！(也就是把50巴仙的投资改为100巴仙的时候了！)
总结论：
乐观转为悲观，需要等到群众都“非常乐观”才可以！
可是悲观转为乐观，却只需要群众有点悲观就可以了！
群众的乐观和悲观是根据成交量来衡量。
我虽然注重“选股”多过“选时”，但是我接受一个事实。
那就是：“选时”比“选股”来得重要！无奈“选时”比“选股”困难得太多了！
只要有6成的把握使我相信母熊已经露出踪影，我就会把100巴仙的投资减为50巴仙。
过后，就算母熊正式的出现，我也不会再减少投资了。
50巴仙就是最少的投资额，这就是我的50：100投资方法。
为什么母熊正式出现我反而不再离场呢？因为那时候，股票的价格已经是跌了很多。
看清楚是母熊才想卖出已经是后知后觉了！
而且小母熊能否成长为大母熊还是一个疑问。根据过去的历史，小母熊是会夭折的！
就好像1987年的“黑色星期一”，股市从高峰回退到谷底只是短短的一个多月。
等到我们看清楚是母熊时，股市已经是在谷底了！
这时候才离场就将使我们失去参与下一轮大牛市的机会。
注：黑色星期一过后一个多月，综合指数就从7/12/87的最低点223回升到1/8/90的最高点632。
我认为最理想的离场时机就是在母熊若隐若现的时候。所以我多次的强调6成的机会，原因就在此。
如果说是9成的机会，那么母熊已经是现形了，一切都太迟了！
有6成的把握就要快速的离场。(但是只可以卖出一半！)
如果卖出后才发觉犯错又怎样？就要接受错误，绝不可以再回头。
继续的保持50巴仙的投资，不可以再考虑离场，因为50巴仙就是最少的投资额！
犯了错误就要有GRAHAM那样的思想：无论多么的乐观，最多只可以投资70巴仙。
既然我们已经卖出了50巴仙，就是不乐观了，因此就应该欣然的接受50巴仙的投资！
所以要决定把100巴仙的投资减为50巴仙是非常非常的重要。
也就是这原因，我应用8种方法来帮我做这决定。(三个月理论就是其中一种)
为什么悲观时刻也不能接受100巴仙的现金？
我相信钱存在银行是最吃亏的事情！(也可能是受了PETER LYNCH的影响。)
只赚那微薄的利息是无法“开番”的。不能“开番”就不能致富！
为什么不考虑把100巴仙的现金放在短期，等待机会再进场？
因为我曾经吃过这苦头，我曾经持有现金长达3年。
那个期待中的机会就是迟迟不出现。(不是没有出现，而是跑掉了！)
结果那100巴仙现金，原本打算放短期的，就变成长期了。(对我来讲，那3年就是长期。)
为什么只有50和100，那些30，40，60，70 在那里？
我们把股票和现金各持有50巴仙：
如果股票下跌一半的价钱，我们手上的股票比重就会自动变成33巴仙！
如果股票上涨一半的价钱，我们手上的股票比重就会自动变成60巴仙！
例子1：
50千的股票和50千的现金。
股票价格再跌一半，就是剩下25千。
投资组合的价值也会跟着下跌至75千。
这25千的股票就是75千组合里的33巴仙。
例子2：
50千的股票和50千的现金。
股票价格再涨一半，就会变成75千。
投资组合的价值也会跟着上升至125千。
这75千的股票就是125千组合里的60巴仙。
我的看法是：
只要把股票的巴仙率降至50巴仙就可以了。以后它要变成33巴仙或者60巴仙那就顺其自然了。
为什么50巴仙就是最少的投资呢？举个例子：有两个投资者，一个很悲观，一个很乐观。
很悲观的就持有全部的现金，而很乐观的就持有全部的股票。
把现金和股票各持一半就代表了这两个人。
所以50巴仙就是最中庸的数目。
想靠投资股票来致富就不可以采用悲观的策略，只可以采用积极的策略。
持有少过一半的股票就表示悲观了！
不管对股市是多么的悲观，我们只可以采用中庸的应对方法，那就是持有一半的股票，一半的现金。
悲观的投资策略是不能令人致富的。
所以悲观时刻我们只可以采用中庸的策略，乐观的时刻我们就应该采用积极的策略。
50巴仙的投资就是中庸的策略。100巴仙的投资才是积极的策略。
悲观时刻就中庸，乐观时刻就积极！
这就是我理想的投资组合管理方法50：100。
什么时候该悲观？
要做个成功的股市投资者，我们要大胆的和群众走相反的路线。
所以我们对市场的感受是要和群众相反的。
当群众都“悲观”时我们就要乐观。
当群众都“非常乐观”时我们就要悲观。
关键之处在于：“非常乐观”。
我们要等到群众都“非常乐观”时，我们才可以开始悲观。
要如何知道群众都已经“非常乐观”呢？如果你用嘴巴去问，你永远都得不到答案。
答案只可以从成交量的多寡得之。
当成交量大时，就是群众“乐观”了。
当成交量很大的时候，就是群众“非常乐观”了！
“乐观”和“非常乐观”是有很大的分别。我们重视的只是“非常乐观”。
所以很大的成交量要持续一段日子，才是群众“非常乐观”了！
怎样的成交量才算很大呢？只有去统计过去的成交量，才可以知道。
我手头上有从1993年开始的成交量记录，是“价值”的记录，不是“票数”的记录。
市场上人们只关心“票数”的成交量，而我却关心“价值”的成交量。
我从1993年开始，每天都把“价值”的成交量记录起来。
根据我的资料：
KLSE 的每日平均成交量 (以季来计算) ，只有3次超过20亿令吉。
它们是：
1993年第4 季，每日的平均成交量是27亿令吉。(5/1/1994牛市见顶于1314点。)
1997年第1季，每日的平均成交量是25亿令吉。(25/2/1997牛市见顶于1272点。)
2000年第1季，每日的平均成交量是21亿令吉。(18/2/2000牛市见顶于1013点。)
根据这有限的资料我得到一点结论：(以季来计算。)
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，就是“很大”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，就是群众“非常乐观”的时候了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，我就要开始悲观了！
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉，股市就已经见顶了！
所以我最关心每日成交量的价值！
那么最近的成交量又是多少呢？
2001年第4 季，每日的平均成交量是4亿令吉！
2001年已经过去，2002年也开始了8天的交易日。
那么这8天的每日平均成交量又是多少呢？答案：7亿令吉。
7亿离开20亿还是一段很长的距离。
所以我相信股市的成交量还是会继续的扩大。
以7亿的成交量来看，群众还是悲观。
所以我还是很乐观。现在我只有耐心的等待，等待……
什么时候该乐观？
等待群众的乐观。
当成交量很大的时候，就是群众“非常乐观”了。
为什么说成交量“很大”的时候，就是群众非常的乐观呢？
一般而言：成交量大，是因为换股次数多。
群众换股是因为买进的股票已经有钱赚了！
群众热衷的换股就会制造出很大的成交量。
换股次数越多，赚的次数也越多。赚的次数越多，乐观的程度也就越大。
所以成交量“很大”的时候，就是群众非常乐观的时候了！
股市投资最重要的是和群众走相反的路线。
当群众都“非常乐观”的时候，我们就要开始悲观了。
悲观是不利于致富的。
所以悲观的时刻我们就得采用中庸的策略。(50巴仙的投资就是中庸的策略。)
我们采用中庸的策略是为了等待良机。
良机出现我们就得迅速的采用积极的投资策略。(100巴仙的投资就是积极的策略。)
要采用积极的投资策略，我们得先把“悲观”转为“乐观”。
什么时候我们才可以乐观呢？我们要等到群众都悲观时，我们才可以乐观。
要如何知道群众都已经悲观呢？如果你用嘴巴去问，你永远都得不到答案。
答案还是一样，只可以从成交量的多寡得之。
当成交量少的时候，就是群众悲观了！
怎样的成交量才算少呢？
根据我的资料：(从1993年开始，以季来计算。)
每日的平均成交量达到20亿令吉以上，就是“很大”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到3亿令吉，就是“很低”的成交量了！
每日的平均成交量达到8亿令吉，就是“中等”的成交量。
我认为成交量少过“中等”的8亿令吉就可以算是少的成交量了。
在这方面，我要求的是“少”的成交量，不是“很少”的成交量。
因为投资致富是要倾向于乐观！ 不是倾向于悲观！
所以只要成交量少过8亿令吉，我就乐观了！
乐观时候，就是采用积极投资策略的时候了！(也就是把50巴仙的投资改为100巴仙的时候了！)
总结论：
乐观转为悲观，需要等到群众都“非常乐观”才可以！
可是悲观转为乐观，却只需要群众有点悲观就可以了！
群众的乐观和悲观是根据成交量来衡量。
我虽然注重“选股”多过“选时”，但是我接受一个事实。
那就是：“选时”比“选股”来得重要！无奈“选时”比“选股”困难得太多了！
股市三易：变易，简易，不易
想要做个成功的股市投资者我们需要认识股市的三个大原则。
那就是：变易，简易，不易。
变易
所谓“变易”就是说，世上的一切都是在不停的变，永无休止的在变。
世上如此，股市也是如此。
没有任何一只股是不变的，没有一个价钱是合理。
你说它便宜它还是会下跌。你说它贵了它还是会上升。
同样的一个价钱，早上你觉得贵，可能下午你会觉得便宜。
就算股价不变，人的感受会变。这也是变，不同方式的变。
世上没有永远的牛市，也没有永远的熊市。
牛会变成熊，熊会变成牛。不停的变，永无休止的变。
不停的变造成人们迷惑。不停的变使人们觉得股市是不可预测的。
这就是“变易”：每个人都懂得的道理。
简易
所谓“简易”就是说，在这世上，不管多复杂，多困难的事情，只要我们懂得了它的奥妙我们就会觉得它是简单
又容易明白的事情。
可惜只有少数人能够明白这道理。
世上如此，股市也是如此。
不管股市是多么的复杂难懂，但是到了要做决定的时刻，我们只有两个选择：买或卖。
简单又容易的“买”或“卖”，却需要费了好大的功夫才能够决定的。能够做决定却不代表说已经明白了。
举个例子：在你所决定买进的那一刻，你所选中的那一只股在你心目中肯定已经是整个股市里最好的选择了。要
不然你不会选它。而且买进的那一刻也是你认为是最理想的时刻了。
事实上是不是如此呢？
至少那个把股票卖给你的人不如此认为。
简单又容易的买卖，是要在复杂和困难的情况下做决定的。理论上能够做决定已经代表说做决定的人已经非常的
清楚和了解整个股市的操作，所做的决定就是最佳的决定。事实上却不是这回事。
这就是“简易”：只有少数人能够懂得的道理。
不易
所谓“不易”就是说，在这世上不管你怎样变，不管你怎样做，你都无法改变一个真理。一个永恒不变的真理。
世界变，什么都变，就只有真理不变。
世上有真理，股市也有它的道理。
幸亏股市是自由经济社会创造出来的东西，它不是上帝创造的，所以它不必讲真理。它只讲道理，一个属于自由
经济体的道理。
股市是企业挂牌的场所。企业存在的道理就是股市的道理。
企业不是为员工而活，也不是为社会而活。它是为自己而活。
企业存在的目的只是为了赚钱，为股东赚钱。这就是它的道理。
所以不管股市怎样变，社会怎样变，它都不能改变这个道理。
这就是“不易”：只有成功者才能懂得的道理。
如果你觉得这篇文章很玄，很难明白。不必放在心上，读过就算了。因为这就是“易经”所强调的三易。
易经是中国最古老的书籍，它有超过两千年的历史。它能够存在这么久，自然有它的道理。也是这个理由，引起
我的兴趣。
我最喜欢的就是易经的系辞上传里的“天尊地卑”。当我的信心转弱时我就会想到去读这篇天尊地卑。很是奇
怪，每次读完后就好像有所悟似的，信心就回来了。
易经的深奥决不是我能够领悟的。我只是尽能力把股市的操作融入易经所讲的三易里，看看能不能令自己开窍。
那就是：变易，简易，不易。
变易
所谓“变易”就是说，世上的一切都是在不停的变，永无休止的在变。
世上如此，股市也是如此。
没有任何一只股是不变的，没有一个价钱是合理。
你说它便宜它还是会下跌。你说它贵了它还是会上升。
同样的一个价钱，早上你觉得贵，可能下午你会觉得便宜。
就算股价不变，人的感受会变。这也是变，不同方式的变。
世上没有永远的牛市，也没有永远的熊市。
牛会变成熊，熊会变成牛。不停的变，永无休止的变。
不停的变造成人们迷惑。不停的变使人们觉得股市是不可预测的。
这就是“变易”：每个人都懂得的道理。
简易
所谓“简易”就是说，在这世上，不管多复杂，多困难的事情，只要我们懂得了它的奥妙我们就会觉得它是简单
又容易明白的事情。
可惜只有少数人能够明白这道理。
世上如此，股市也是如此。
不管股市是多么的复杂难懂，但是到了要做决定的时刻，我们只有两个选择：买或卖。
简单又容易的“买”或“卖”，却需要费了好大的功夫才能够决定的。能够做决定却不代表说已经明白了。
举个例子：在你所决定买进的那一刻，你所选中的那一只股在你心目中肯定已经是整个股市里最好的选择了。要
不然你不会选它。而且买进的那一刻也是你认为是最理想的时刻了。
事实上是不是如此呢？
至少那个把股票卖给你的人不如此认为。
简单又容易的买卖，是要在复杂和困难的情况下做决定的。理论上能够做决定已经代表说做决定的人已经非常的
清楚和了解整个股市的操作，所做的决定就是最佳的决定。事实上却不是这回事。
这就是“简易”：只有少数人能够懂得的道理。
不易
所谓“不易”就是说，在这世上不管你怎样变，不管你怎样做，你都无法改变一个真理。一个永恒不变的真理。
世界变，什么都变，就只有真理不变。
世上有真理，股市也有它的道理。
幸亏股市是自由经济社会创造出来的东西，它不是上帝创造的，所以它不必讲真理。它只讲道理，一个属于自由
经济体的道理。
股市是企业挂牌的场所。企业存在的道理就是股市的道理。
企业不是为员工而活，也不是为社会而活。它是为自己而活。
企业存在的目的只是为了赚钱，为股东赚钱。这就是它的道理。
所以不管股市怎样变，社会怎样变，它都不能改变这个道理。
这就是“不易”：只有成功者才能懂得的道理。
如果你觉得这篇文章很玄，很难明白。不必放在心上，读过就算了。因为这就是“易经”所强调的三易。
易经是中国最古老的书籍，它有超过两千年的历史。它能够存在这么久，自然有它的道理。也是这个理由，引起
我的兴趣。
我最喜欢的就是易经的系辞上传里的“天尊地卑”。当我的信心转弱时我就会想到去读这篇天尊地卑。很是奇
怪，每次读完后就好像有所悟似的，信心就回来了。
易经的深奥决不是我能够领悟的。我只是尽能力把股市的操作融入易经所讲的三易里，看看能不能令自己开窍。
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