Time

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

The Beauty of a Bear Market

On hindsight, it would have been extremely obvious to a casual observer and a reasonable person that the market would turn bearish this year. That is the problem in general with predictions - they are usually extremely accurate only by looking at history ! However, this post is not to lambast people who attempt to time market cycles (some do get it fairly accurate but are often unable to repeat the "stellar" performance); but rather, it is a post to illustrate how one should take full advantage of a bear market to look for bargains.

I read, with some amusement no doubt, the views of various experts who were asked their opinions on the current market condition. There were varied opinions (as usual) ranging from the optimistic (the bear will only last 12 months and the market is also bottomed out) to the wildly pessimistic (we will get "buried" under a pile of earnings downgrades). It was all very amusing seeing people try to predict the market and to second-guess the economic environment and how long the current sub-prime crisis will last. The fact is that no one knows, yet everyone has an opinion and tries to make an "educated guess", in the process trying to sound intelligent and that they know exactly what's going on. I am not shooting down the opinions of famed investors; it's just that sometimes they should just admit they haven't a clue as to when this will end - I think that sounds more honest !

The beauty of a bear market will only be apparent to people who relish a bear market (usually value investors lah). Most other people see bear markets as something akin to the end of the world, depicting scenarios where people jump off buildings, declare bankruptcy and live the rest of their wretched lives in abject poverty. Such is the media spotlight which is thrown onto bear markets and the media's portrayal of such events. The doom and gloom can get so pervasive that you can hardly find much reason to cheer; in fact everyone is so enthusiastically predicting the end of the world that they fail to realize that opportunities abound to purchase cheaply. In fact, an investor's temperament should be the same regardless of whether the market is in bull or bear mode. He always has to emphasize margin of safety, as well as preservation of capital. Having such an attitude is important as it helps to minimize losses (this is in contrast to people who seek only to "maximize gains").

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham aptly mentions this point. Jason Zweig who wrote the footnotes for his book writes that without bear markets to bring valuations down to reasonable levels, no investor would be able to purchase with a decent margin of safety. Hence, bear markets are essential for investors and should be welcome with open arms. Bull markets are often dreaded by investors as they do not present suitable opportunities for investment.

That said, one must still be extremely selective in evaluating which company to invest in and to ensure that all aspects of the company are analyzed before a purchase is made. This is because in a bear market, everything looks cheap but the problem is that valuations may not actually BE cheap. During times of economic uncertainty and rising inflation, bear markets will usually occur. This has the effect of weighing on earnings of almost all companies and will throw their growth plans into disarray. Only companies which can pass on the higher costs or find a way around the difficulties will eventually emerge relatively unscathed. Thus, the "cheapness" of a company does not preclude one from investigative work to understand the nature of the business and whether it will be affected by higher costs and/or other economic factors. As a result, finding a worthwhile company to invest in can be a painstaking job and should not be considered simple.

Which is why Warren Buffett said that "Investing is easy, but not simple". The premise of investing is easy to understand, but the actual process to evaluate companies, churn numbers and to understand the workings of the economic environment and how it influenced a company are not simple. Therefore, every investor should work hard so that his rewards are well-deserved !

中國股民唔識過冬

8月24日,周日。上周房利美及房貸美跌幅達52%,因為市場認為由政府接管係鼻哥窿擔遮之事。

Byron R. Wien係Pequot Capital Management嘅主要投資策略員。佢1965年成為證券分析員,曾經係摩根士丹利主要策略員,2005年年底先加入家吓嘅公司。佢認為市場環球化後,投資策略應改變,仲話1945到1970年代,美國無論喺經濟、政治及軍事上都係世界領袖;七十年代開始日本同西德冒起,令世界經濟漸變成三頭馬車;八十年代中國、跟住係印度同其後嘅金磚四國。日本成為最先進入GDP年增長率難超過3%嘅國家,之後係歐洲,家吓係美國;未來五年甚至十年,美國GDP增長率再難超過每年3%了。1982到2007年美國透過金融服務,帶嚟再膨脹時代,今年起取而代之係低增長、低P/E、低利率及較高通脹率;情況有D似1966至82年嘅美國。未來美國經濟甚至可能只係停滯不前,連通脹率都唔高,因經濟放緩最終令CPI增幅下降。估計後市油價喺100至115美元上落;原材料價因中國及印度需求大而無法大跌,進入咗高價牛皮。美國因次按危機令消費需求下降,經濟停滯不前,結果係好又好唔到去邊、壞又壞唔到去邊,進入咗Lazy(懶惰)、Hazy(迷惘)甚至有D Crazy(癲癲地)嘅時期。

貝南奇呃唔到人
7月美國房屋銷售跌至十年新低,可供出售新屋及二手樓共五百四十三萬五千間(6月份係五百三十九萬間),估計地產業衰退可伸展到明年,同期出現資金不足及借貸唔易,令樓按利率上升,加上薪金收入加幅有限,喺可見將來認為樓價可上升係不切實際嘅諗法。今年3月新屋銷售五十二萬六千間,係1991年以嚟最低,估計8月份係五十二萬五千間;二手樓銷售估計係四百九十一萬間,好接近6月份嘅數據(十年低位);上月新屋建築較一年前少11%,係十七年內最低。

1997年7月之後,無論股票或物業市場,再唔係投資者嘅天堂,變成Rentier嘅遊樂場。股票市場或物業市場早已唔再存在投資者(Investors),取而代之嘅係贏家同輸家。贏家及輸家同投資者最大嘅分別係佢地都係冇耐性嘅人,令長線投資唔受歡迎(Buy and hold policy已行唔通),炒賣由中短線取代。例如1997年7至8月如果你唔減持股票及房地產,事後證明你係輸家。1998年年底前應重新投入科網股,然後喺2000年減持;2003年年中又重新買入股票及房地產;去年10月股市見頂,今年第二季起樓價受壓。衍生產品、期指、期權及牛熊證充斥市場,早就令金融市場變成戰場。用嘅係聰明炸彈,即必須命中目標,以及喺最短時間內將敵人殲滅,再唔係由士兵們寸土必爭。市場需要嘅投資策略再唔係點樣喺三十年內致富,而係點樣喺三、五年內發達(甚至三、五年亦好長,最好係三、五個月)。

2000年美國科網股泡沫爆煲後,格蛇利用過去二十年出任聯儲局主席所建立嘅威信,喺2001年「九一一.慘劇」後首次唔遵守雪茄伏嘅戒條——即利率唔再高過CPI 2厘。初期大家睇唔清,2003年美國仍可以出現經濟復甦但CPI唔升嘅局面。格蛇知道呃人一時易、呃人一世難,由2004年6月起將利率逐步推高到2006年5.25厘,可惜貝南奇喺去年9月到今年4月又將利率降至2厘。呢次大家唔再受騙,結果今年CPI大升及GDP增長率大跌。

美國政府好難頂
貝爾斯登事件後係兩房,聯儲局點樣應付呢個困局?過去唔少主權基金曾大量投資喺有問題嘅金融機構上,點知愈買愈平;呢次連韓國發展銀行亦計劃入股雷曼兄弟,令雷曼兄弟上周五嘅股價止跌回升;道指亦上升。假設韓國發展銀行願意以雷曼賬面值50%收購,不但令雷曼上周五上升15%,收報15.78美元,因家吓市價只係雷曼賬面值37%(或真正淨值48%)。韓國銀行收購雷曼後,後者唔使被迫賤賣資產,對市場有利;雷曼貸款主要同樓按有關,係美國四大投資銀行中最細嗰間,至今股價由高位回落咗80%。

股聖畢非德認為兩房Game Over,已冇絲毫投資價值,家吓仍能生存嘅理由係因為聯邦政府支持。佢過去曾係兩房大股東之一,2001年起開始減持。今天房利美股價較高峰時回落咗95%(一年前市價70美元);房貸美股價亦回落咗91%。房利美今天市值只得52億美元,房貸美就得20億美元。前者喺三十年代由羅斯福總統下令成立,目的係協助振興經濟;後者喺1970年成立,目的係協助美國經濟從越戰打擊中復甦。股聖最高峰時曾揸住房貸美8.5%,但2001年起兩房嘅投資策略令佢感到不安。上周五房利美股價先跌10%後反彈,最終升3.09%,見5美元;房貸美再跌11.08%,見2.81美元。上周五穆廸投資公司將兩房債券進一步降級,由A1降至Baa3,財政狀況由B減降至D+。兩房最終會唔會步Indy Mac後塵?甚至貝南奇亦承認金融風暴未過,因為樓價回落至今未見底。正常嘅情況下美國每年有八十萬個住房新買家,理由係結婚、離婚及子女長大等因素。2006年一年房地產交易量達七百萬間,其中二百萬間係新屋,可見情況係幾咁唔正常。2005至07年共有一千四百萬人買樓,其中一半左右樓價首期係利用另類方法支付,例如先買後畀錢或首兩年只畀利息,兩年後先正式供樓;估計其中三百五十萬人因無力供樓而放棄。未來點樣消化呢三百五十間房屋,甚至未來五年美國將新屋建築量降至每年八十萬間或以下(較2006年建屋量少50%)?

如兩房go under,5萬億美元房貸壓力將落喺聯邦政府肩上;政府如果唔承擔,美國銀行業便遭殃,甚至FDIC亦頂不住。Institutional Risk Analytics(呢間公司責任係分析各銀行健康狀況)執行總裁Chris Whalen估計,今年8月到明年7月將有一百間銀行被接管,大部分係中小型,涉及總資產8500億美元。FDIC只有500億美元資金,接管Indy Mac已用咗200億美元,日後接管8500億美元資產,需850億美元或以上資金(假設10%係呆壞賬),即FDIC需額外500億美元注資先可應付。新總統首要任務係向FDIC注資或取消對10萬美元存款保證。到時如果政府同時須為5萬億美元房貸作擔保,你話點頂?今天地區性銀行好似Key Corp、National City等發債,市場要求利率係12厘到15厘。甚至財政狀況良好嘅銀行好似摩根大通咁,最近佢發6億美元優先股,利率亦要8.75厘;富國銀行發16億美元優先股,利率8.85厘;雷曼兄弟11至13厘;美林11至12厘;摩根士丹利9至10厘;花旗9.5厘至10.5厘;兩房15厘。喺高息壓力下,點樣發債集資?美國金融風暴不但未見平息,反而愈打愈大,一如上周嘅鸚鵡颱風,須由八號改掛九號風球。投資者們請振作起嚟,因為最困難嘅日子仲喺前面!

金價低位見幾多?
上周五貝南奇為2厘利率辯護,佢認為7月份CPI升幅5.6%係短暫情況。上周本欄已解釋聯儲局點樣利用減息去支持股市平均P/E喺十四至十五倍之間(如企業純利增長率再跌,家吓嘅P/E仍會下降)。

過去六年(2002至07年)美元滙價跌幅超過40%,係造成金價喺今年3月升穿1000美元,以及油價今年7月見145美元嘅理由。如果美元止跌回升,可令金價、油價及CPI增長率回落。反之,如果美國CPI增長率保持喺5%至7%水平,美元滙價將進一步回落及商品價又再狂升。未來油價每桶見80美元定係止跌回升?彭博訪問咗二十九位分析員。其中十六位(佔55%)話會升;七位(佔24%)話變化唔大;其餘就睇跌。最後邊一個方向先啱?我地不妨由另一角度去睇問題:通脹(唔係CPI)代表流通貨幣增加。1972至82年美國K上升87.6%及L上升141.5%;美元供應迅速增加,最終令CPI大升。過去十年美國K上升30.3%及L上升87.6%,升幅唔及1972至82年。美國收支赤字喺2006年佔GDP 6.2%時最高,今年(美林估計)約5%,明年再減少至3.5%。即美國收支赤字佔GDP比重在下降中,而CPI係落後指數。換言之,貝南奇估計CPI短期見頂有一定數據支持,佢嘅發言上周五令油價跌咗6美元,係2004年12月以嚟最大一天跌幅,10月期油見114.59美元;白金每盎斯跌17.6美元;小麥跌3.4%;銅價跌1.4%。至今為止未能肯定金價由今年3月及油價由今年7月回落,係調整市定係牛市結束。

金價曾由1974年12月200美元回落到1976年8月100美元,到1978年先重返200美元,然後喺1980年1月見850美元。呢次金價由今年3月1030美元回落,最低可見幾多?775美元定係730美元,有人甚至話見641.5美元先完成調整,然後一如1976年8月至80年1月,進入黃金上升第二波。

《星期日電訊報》報道,中國人行入股英國保誠投資,成為二十五大機構投資者之一;同時購入Old Mutual(英國第三大保險公司)股份,睇嚟中國資金繼續走出去。

上周大行報告披露4000億元(人民幣.下同)救市計劃,相信係3700億元經濟刺激方案嘅誤傳;其中包括新增支出2200億元及減稅計劃1500億元。新增支出如社保支出450億元、農業460億元、科技教育380億元、公共建設350億元、國企補貼80億元、能源及大宗商品入口補貼280億元等。減稅計劃包括提高個人所得稅起點、出口退稅及中小企業退稅等。救市不如救經濟。1998年9月香港特區政府曾動用千億港元救股市,因巧遇俄羅斯危機美國減息,令港股止跌回升(同期新加坡政府並冇救市,但新加坡股市一樣上升。證明港股上升理由係美國減息而唔係特區政府救市)。其後香港經濟點?咪一樣要衰到2003年上半年先復甦!政黨當年批評特區政府救市唔救人。2003年下半年香港經濟受惠於中央政府一連串振興香港經濟嘅方案,好似CEPA及自由行,加上2003年4月起美國經濟復甦。2003年下半年香港雖然冇救市計劃,但港股升完可以再升。

救經濟方向正確
中央政府呢次出招穩定經濟而唔救市,方向係正確(只要經濟好,股市遲早好。反之,經濟差,股市遲早跌)。作為政府,應救經濟唔係救市。中國證監會負責人表示小非解禁今年7月底止已達56%,未來利用積極方法協助大小非逐步變成全流動,同時對市場造成干擾愈少愈好。

去年10月滬深A股P/E點解咁高?係由供求唔平衡造成。去年10月A股股價唔係反映公司業績而係反映供應不足,情況好似1973年3月港股或1989年12月日股。隨着供應量上升,股價唔再反映供求因素而係公司業績因此大跌。1973年3月香港政府採取不干預政策,令恒指喺二十二個月內跌幅91%;日本政府1990至2003年再三干預,但日股跌咗十三年,跌幅80.5%。長痛定短痛好?香港選短痛,喺二十二個月內畀股市跌個痛快;日本選長痛,就跌足十三年,至今股市仲死氣沉沉。滬深三百至今見回落十個月,跌幅達61%。你又點睇?!目前滬深三百平均P/E十七倍唔算貴,但同各國比較絕對唔平,即短期或有反彈,但相信未見底。

A股無論係二次發售機制或發行可換股債券交換,都唔可以解決大小非嘅問題,唯一作用係減慢市場下跌速度,卻無法保證市場持續上漲。至於經濟刺激方案又係遠水救唔到近火,短期A股下跌壓力仲好大。滬深三百肯定進入了隆冬,但大部分投資者卻冇心理準備過冬,唔少仍着住泳褲,咁點樣捱過呢個冬季?內地散戶仲未學曉止蝕唔止賺,更加唔識溝上唔溝落,喺跌市初期不但未止蝕(例如跌15%要止蝕、跌20%便不用再問理由全止蝕)。喺過去十個月跌市中甚至溝落;至於咩嘢係三七分,唔少內地散戶連聽都未聽過。

冬季過後一定係春回大地,只着泳褲嘅散戶們點樣捱過呢個寒冬?去年唔少人相信奧運效應而唔賣股票。今年8月8日奧運開幕,滬深三百卻由2719點回落到8月19日嘅2273點,跌幅達16.4%,上周五收報2404點。周日奧運閉幕後,周一滬深A股又點?大家最後會明白,奧運只係體育盛事,同股市關係唔大。

面對能源價格、原材料價格、人民幣滙價、工資及通脹率上升等多項不利因素,加上去年8月美國次按危機,中國經濟今年可能由快速增長進入增長減速嘅拐點,整體面對結構性調整,由出口導向轉為內需刺激。呢段青黃不接期需時幾耐?謝國忠估計未來十二個月出口佔中國GDP比重將一直下降。國家信息中心經濟預測部首席經濟師祝寶良認為,企業投資下半年增速會放緩,但政府投資下半年會加速,因為唔少大型基建上馬。

消費方面,耶魯大學管理學院金融經濟教授陳志武認為,如果要擴大內需,政府應學習美國政府退稅,同時削減增值稅及增加社會保障。

至於油價方面,未低於80美元前,對中國經濟幫助唔大,因為中國境內汽油售價仍低過80美元。奧運之後成品油價、電價及煤價加快同國際能源價格接軌,將令CPI居高不下。換言之,經濟春天肯定會來,但着泳褲嘅人有幾多個可以捱過寒冬又係另一回事。

炒奧運幣苦過DD

8月25日,周一。恒生指數升712.73,收21104.79;成交556.15億元,8月期指升809點,收21190點;9月期指升813點,收21113點。過去出現嘅期指倒掛現象今天消失,恢復番正常情況,即期指較現貨略高(只能略高理由係因為9月有唔少股份派息除息,對期指揸家不利)。

工商銀行(1398)升4.3%,收5.34元,里昂推介目標價6.25元;建行(939)升3.7%,報6.19元,因半年純利587億元人民幣;網通(906)升4.2%,報21元;中遠太平洋(1199)升4.5%,報10.64元,因上半年利潤升11%;平安保險(2318)升4.9%,報53.9元,外傳佢喺度洽購廣州商業銀行;兗州煤業(1171)升5.7%,報12.34元,因上半年利潤升一點六倍。

油價下跌嘅真正原因
花旗推介和黃(013),估計今年每股獲利4.39元,較去年減少38.8%,P/E十六點一倍,目標價94元;亦推介長江實業(001),估計今年每股獲利8.83元,減少9.1%,P/E十一點四倍,目標價13.7元;大連港(2880)估計今年每股獲利21仙,與去年接近,P/E十六倍,目標價5.9元;上海電氣(2727)估計今年每股獲利25.1仙,升5.8%,P/E十點五倍,目標價4元;工商銀行估計今年每股獲利38.6仙,上升58%,P/E十一點六倍,目標價6.3元;國壽(2628)半年純利下降31.9%,至158億元人民幣。

滬深三百指數微跌0.18%,收2400.55。因內地股市重挫,午後國壽、中國平安及工商銀行股價下挫;十七天嘅奧運結束了,2006年推出嘅奧運金銀紀念幣更由奧運進入最後倒數時嘅每套30000元人民幣,下跌到最近16000元人民幣,第二批推出更跌至11000元人民幣,第三批市價10000元人民幣。炒奧運金銀紀念幣者,家吓真係苦過DD。

港幣奧運紀念鈔亦由每張280元跌至138元,澳門幣奧運紀念鈔跌幅更由400元澳門幣跌到90元澳門幣。奧運人民幣紀念鈔跌幅最少只下跌30%,市價係每張1000元人民幣。情況有D似1997年香港回歸紀念金銀幣,香港回歸後亦跌到七個一皮。

炒奧運紀念幣者全部跌眼鏡,至於內地股市又點?期待中嘅奧運後效應周一未有現身。

近日印尼煤礦股股價大跌,例如Bumi Resources由去年6月至今回落36%(印尼係全球最大嘅煤出口國),係咪代表煤價已見頂?

油價亦由7月份每桶147美元急跌,商品價格亦大幅回落,係咪代表全球GDP由高增長期進入低增長期?根據Thomson Reuters估計,標普五百未來P/E只得十二點九倍(7月中一度見十一點六三倍),上述P/E只有1988年出現過(即股災後)。1968年至家吓過去三十年美股平均P/E係十八點三五倍,點解美股近期P/E會咁低?上述低P/E過去只有喺高利率期才出現,但今年4月起利率只得2厘,令人擔心依家低P/E正正反映世界經濟陷入低增長期,呢個先係油價及原材料價格下跌嘅背後真正理由。

中國靠內需保GDP增長?
2002年開始回落嘅美元,踏入今年7月係咪開始止跌回升?外滙專家認為,依家美元滙價最少偏低30%;1995至2001年美元亦曾經轉強。美國銀行分析員認為,美元弱勢喺今年7月結束,因美國人唔再向海外投資,反而將資金調回美國,全球資金正回流美國。英鎊見1.84美元係2006年7月以嚟最低;歐羅見1.47美元(上周一度觸及六個月低位1.463美元)。股聖畢非德話佢過去雖然睇淡美元,但冇拋空美元,股聖一言令周一美元上升如虎添翼。

中國向世全界呈現最豪華嘅奧運會,令人有D奢侈感覺。相信呢個係任何國家(或人)脫貧後必有嘅心態(誇富心態),可以話喺無可厚非。隨着國家(或人)漸漸習慣富有,呢個心態自然收斂。1973年我老曹結婚擺酒時亦筵開七十席,家吓望番轉頭,連我老曹亦奇怪當年點解會咁戇居?依家出席人地嘅誇富宴時,間中亦會由心裏面笑出嚟;人必須經一事、才長一智。

最豪華嘅奧運會結束後,又返番去經濟;中國未來經濟的確有D令人迷惘。由出口導向型經濟轉為內需,最成功係香港;只因八十年代巧遇中國改革開放政策,令香港製造業成功轉入內地,香港經濟改為服務珠三角製造業為主;反觀台灣九十年代經濟轉型,至今仲未算成功。中國經濟最大王牌(廉價成本)慢慢冇埋,可唔可以透過內需長期保持中國GDP 8%或以上高增長?依家中國已面對能源危機、資源短缺及熟練工人供應唔足,加上人民幣升值,歐美日等國家GDP陷入低增長期,中國出口增長率肯定進入拐點,可唔可以利用內需去取代出口增長率,而達到長期GDP「保八」嘅目標?

貧富差距拉大
改革開放三十年,中國整體經濟富起嚟,卻先出現其他資本主義國家嘅貧富差距擴大問題;近年由胡錦濤提出三農政策目的係減少貧富間差距以免造成社會不安。

過去大家相信教育可以改變社會上貧富差距;第二次世界大戰後美國情況的確係咁,但到咗1980年代嘅美國、1990年代嘅日本及1997年後嘅香港,教育雖然愈嚟愈普及,但社會上貧富差距不但未見改善,反而係進一步惡化。根據哈佛大學Goldin及Katz研究,美國1947至70年代後期,教育普及令中產階級冒起,各人嘅收入不平衡係減少咗,但七十年代後期開始,收入差距又再拉闊;不但行業之間嘅差距拉闊,甚至同一行業好似律師咁,一流律師收入同一般律師收入可以有天淵之別。就以1997至2001年為例,美國最高收入10%人口收入上升49%;反之,50%中產階級人口收入同期只上升13%。即財富同收入愈嚟愈集中喺最高收入10%嘅人口手中。

普及教育的確曾令社會人口人均收入普遍增加,例如美國今年(扣除通脹)人均收入係1900年嘅六倍。隨着普及教育完成,社會又返番去過去情況:即收入及財富漸漸集中喺10%人口手中。依家成為一個律師後,收入只係一般,除非你係十分出色嘅律師。依家成為股票分析員收入亦一般,除非你係一位好出色嘅分析員。再睇中國嘅情況更令人擔心,因為中國未完成全民普及教育;即國民人均收入未全面提升前,卻一早出現咗貧富差距兩極化。上述嘅情況過去喺東南亞國家及拉丁美洲亦出現,最終可引起社會不安。反而美國、日本及香港雖然亦貧富差距擴大,由於人均收入普遍已達一定水平,社會仍比較上安定。

小心駛得萬年船
今天喺美國、日本及香港接受大學教育甚至碩士及博士,亦不能保證閣下可以成為高收入人士,隨非你係出類拔萃。美國最高收入10%人口收入升幅係大部分人收入升幅嘅三倍,咁樣落去10%最高收入人口同大部分人收入比較,差距自然愈嚟愈大,最終引發經濟不景氣。

去年係危機年(crisis),今年係投資者小心謹慎年(caution)。

Jeremy Grantham去年首先用慢動作火車相撞去形容次按危機;換言之,過去一年發生嘅事好似物理定律,例如火車司機企圖重新控制火車,其後因衝擊力令車卡一個接一個互相碰撞甚至出軌。喺經濟層面上,信貸突然收緊令銀行一間接一間出問題,然後阻礙經濟活動令企業純利增長放緩。情況就好似車卡,最先係後面一卡撞上嚟;然後再後面一卡撞上後面一卡,然後再撞上嚟。每次碰撞後以為危機已過咗,結果又有一卡撞上嚟令股市又再跌至低位。

去年第四季最先係美國GDP出現負增長,今年第二季出現GDP負增長係歐洲及日本,第三季極有可能係英國。

七十年代後期最先係鐵娘子結束咗英國政府大量開支時代,令通脹率慢慢受控制;其後引入貨幣學派,令英國進入一段低通脹經濟擴展期,擔心隨住貝理雅首相下台而結束。美國由雪茄伏出任聯儲局主席開始,八十年代列根出任總統解決美國滯脹問題,美國經濟重新恢復高增長。克仔任內再令美國赤字收窄,到殊仔上任利用財赤,令美國經濟喺2000年後繼續增長,但到咗家吓已千瘡百孔。貝爾斯登出事後房利美及房貸美又面對壓力。7月15日起美國證監會禁止「裸空」令油價急跌,以及KBW商業銀行指數回升37%(仍較去年高價低47%),下一步又係點?Resolution Investment Management Ltd.嘅Stuart Thomson認為,信貸壓碎(credit crunch)不但未過去而且喺度惡化。高盛證券分析員Binit Patel認為,佔全球GDP一半國家已面對一場衰退,自貝爾斯登事件十年期債券息率由3.31厘升上3.87厘,估計年底見4厘,因各銀行都喺度增持現金;銀行與銀行間之互信好低。奧巴馬強調改變(change),明年起美國經濟肯定出現大改變,問題係變好定變壞?小心駛得萬年船,今年作為投資者請記住呢句話。

世事改變速度實在快得驚人;去年10月經濟仲係過熱,今年未到9月已寒風陣陣,美國經濟面對三個頂頭風──樓市、信貸及高油價;大部分美國金融股去年至今跌幅由50%至90%。

中國、印度、巴西及俄羅斯合稱金磚四國,佢地每年可產生七千萬個中產階級人口(美國人口只有三億、歐盟略超過三億、日本一億二千八百萬),即全球中產階級人口正以年率10%速度增加。正喺度將全世界變成一個極大消費市場,上述仲未計東歐、中東及東南亞嘅中產階級人口亦喺度湧現。可唔可以抵銷歐美日及英國嘅經濟低增長期?1990年起日本GDP進入低增長期,並冇影響其他國家。今年起美國同歐洲GDP進入低增長期影響卻好大,因歐美係其他新興市場最大出口對象,情況有D似1997年7月亞洲金融風暴,因美元轉強,削弱咗亞洲地區出口競爭力一樣。

油價終於由7月18日嘅147美元回落,美國經濟三股頂頭風其中一股已減弱;至於信貸危機相信喺9月底前兩房問題應有定案;最後只餘下樓市呢股頂頭風。最終問題必須解決,作為投資者需要嘅係耐性,例如1982年9月中國政府宣布,喺1997年7月收番香港主權、到1984年7月中英雙方簽訂聯合聲明,時間上總共二十三個月。

1997年7月亞洲金融風暴到1998年9月東南亞亦開始解決,需時十四個月。

2000年3月科網股泡沫爆破到2002年10月納指止跌回升,需時三十一個月。

去年11月開始嘅次按危機,最終必須解決。問題係要幾耐,同埋點樣收科。

冬天嚟到,春天仲會遠咩?如大家已及時止蝕、冇溝落,唔係只着條泳褲過冬季,便可以耐心地等;可能係明年第一季,又可能再長一D,但春天一定會番嚟;反之,只有一條泳褲就凍死都未天光。

Monday, August 25, 2008

Jim Rogers saddles up

Jim Rogers is known throughout the investment community as one of the most successful hedge fund managers of his generation and a world traveler who collected his observations in a series of popular books — Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist, and this year, Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World’s Best Market.

Rogers, 62, attended Yale on scholarship, where he majored in history. After graduating, he moved to Oxford, where he studied politics, economics, and philosophy. Following a stint in the army, he got a job as an assistant analyst on Wall Street in 1968.

He knew virtually nothing about the markets. When asked what attracted him to the field given his liberal arts education, Rogers says, “The world was my passion and here was a place that would pay me to understand the world around me.”

As it turned out, his global interests were well-suited to gauging the markets. In 1973, Rogers and George Soros took over a hedge fund they had been managing and changed its name to Quantum. The fund gained more than 4,000 percent during the 70s and forever cemented the reputations of its two partners.

Rogers “retired” from the hedge fund in 1980 at age 37 to, among other things, manage his personal portfolio, teach finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, and embark upon the travels that provided the material for his first two books: Investment Biker (originally released in 1994 by Villard; re-released in 2003 by Random House) and Adventure Capitalist (2003, Random House).

Rogers’ new book, Hot Commodities, expands on one of the themes he took up in Adventure Capitalist: That a new commodity bull market is underway and China will be at the center of the 21st century, economically and culturally.

In 1998 developed his own commodity index — the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) — and in August of that year launched a commodity index fund that currently manages $800-900 million worldwide. Through March 2005, it had gained 216 percent, while the S&P 500 was up only a little more than 8 percent in the same period.

Rogers spoke with us in March during a morning exercise session about commodities and the global economy.

AT: What does the average stock investor who has never traded commodities need to know about this market?

JR: Commodities are simpler and easier to analyze than stocks. Now, I didn’t say they were easy, I said they were simpler and easier.

If there’s too much copper it’s going to go down; if there’s too little it’s going to go up. Copper doesn’t know who Alan Greenspan is — it doesn’t care.

But when you’re talking about stocks, you have to worry about the stock market, government, management, balance sheets, accounting, environmentalists, unions, regulators, competition. You have to analyze 150 copper companies, or whatever the number is. Most people don’t have the ability to do that.

But you’re not going to buy a copper company unless you’ve figured out whether copper is going to go up or down, anyway. So why not just stop there? Your life should be simpler and easier if you stick with commodities rather than stocks.

Natural gas has gone up 300 percent. Enron was a natural gas company and it went to zero. Companies can go to zero. Commodities cannot go to zero. They can go down, but never to zero. If nothing else, investing in commodities rather than stocks should make your life simpler, easier, and less dangerous.

AT: What about leverage? Most futures traders are inclined to use leverage because it’s available to them. Do you think most individual traders should use it?

JR: Sure, you can use leverage, but that’s where the horror stories come from. Or, you can do it like you buy IBM — no leverage or 50-percent leverage. The Yale study (an analysis of commodity performance referenced in Hot Commodities), which assumed an unleveraged portfolio, showed you would have made 300 percent more investing in commodities than in the underlying stocks.

But if you’re a great stock analyst, and you pick the [right] companies, of course you’re going to make more money. If you can pick the three oil companies out of 500, do it. But in the 70s, a lot of oil stocks did nothing even though the price of oil went up 10 times.

AT: Is the automatic corollary that stocks will underperform during a commodity bull cycle?

JR: Historically that’s always been the case. As far as why that happens, forget the theory. The fact is, it always happens. And I expect bonds to be in a bear market for 15 or 20 years. Even if I’m wrong, though, you’re not going to make any money in bonds at 4 percent, that’s for sure.

Historically, stocks and bonds don’t do well in times like this. I don’t think they will. Stocks are definitely high on any kind of historic basis, bonds are a mess.

AT: What do you think is different between today’s commodity environment and the big boom in the 70s and 80s?

JR: There are a few differences. At that time, for instance, the world had made some gigantic oil discoveries in the 60s — Alaska, the North Sea, Mexico. None of that oil was coming on stream in time. But there was still a gigantic bull market in oil — it went up 10 times — even though huge amounts of oil were there and we knew they were there; it just had to come to market.

Today, though, there have been no great discoveries of oil — we don’t have any oil sitting in the wings waiting to come on stream. We have the Canadian tar sands, but that takes tens of billions of dollars and a long, long time to bring on stream. So this time things should be worse, unless somebody discovers a couple of “elephants” quickly. But otherwise…

Another major difference was that the U.S. was a creditor nation in the 70s and our currency was somewhat sound. Now we’re the world’s largest debtor nation by a factor of many, many times and our currency is not sound. There’s going to be a movement away from the world’s reserve currency, and throughout history during this kind of transition phase people have usually looked for something else — usually hard assets.

AT: You wrote in your book that you really noticed a shift in the markets going on in 1998, and that’s when you started your commodity fund. So what’s your guess as to where we are in the current bull commodity cycle?

JR: The bull market in commodities started in early 1999 — I was off by a few weeks. Historically, the shortest bull market I found lasted 15 years, the longest was 23, the average was 18. So, if history is a guide — this is not a prediction — this bull market will last until somewhere between 2014 and 2022.

I have no idea how long it will last. But I do know that bull markets in commodities last a long, long time because it takes a long time to bring new supply on stream.

AT: What commodities or sectors do you think are looking particularly attractive?

JR: Well, they all do. But as is the case with everything else, you research the things that haven’t moved up very much — sugar, orange juice, cotton, soybeans. This is where the opportunities are, if you ask me.

AT: China played a central role in your book. I think you said you’d be surprised if their currency wasn’t unpegged by 2008. What are the major implications of China keeping their currency pegged or letting it float?

JR: Right now, it means you cannot freely convert your renmimbi into other currencies. That would change, so you could change your renmimbi into any other currency, just as you can the U.S. dollar right now.

Since their currency always trades tied to the U.S. dollar, it means if you own it you can’t make or lose any money compared to the dollar. Once it becomes convertible, it will either go up or down against the U.S. dollar depending on what the market does.

My view is that it will eventually be going up. One effect, of course, of their currency going higher is their goods will cost more. So in theory, other countries will be more competitive because the price of [Chinese] goods will be going higher when translated into U.S. dollars.

It doesn’t always work that way, especially in China’s case, because, for instance, that means the things they buy — such as oil and copper, which are still priced in dollars — will be going down compared to their currency. So it’s not as simple as it looks.

Even if [the renmimbi] goes up, I would remind your readers that the Japanese yen has gone up 400 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past several decades, yet the Japanese still have a balance of trade surplus with the U.S. So it’s not going to have near the effect, certainly in any short period of time, that many people in Washington D.C. hope for.

AT: When you developed your own commodity index, what flaws did you find in the existing ones that you wanted to correct?

JR: I looked at all the indices and I found none of them were any good. The CRB index (Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index) gives orange juice and crude oil the same weighting. What the hell kind of index is that?

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is 74 percent energy and it changes wildly. Livestock has been anywhere from 6 percent to 26 percent. Energy has been anywhere from 44 to 75 percent. And Goldman Sachs, bless their hearts, if something goes up, they buy more. Nobody reading your magazine invests that way.

And these indices were all very U.S.-centric. None of them had rice — even though more than half the people in the world eat rice every day. I had no choice but to come up with my own index. I wanted something that’s transparent and constant.

I don’t know if mine’s the best. You can look at it yourself and make your own decision. It may have flaws but it’s sure better than the rest of them.

AT: Do you disseminate data for your commodity index?

JR: It’s on Bloomberg and Reuters everyday. (He pauses to email some charts of the index — see Figures 1 and 2.) The fund was started Aug. 1, 1998. That’s why the charts I’m sending you start on that date — that’s when the fund started with real money.

AT: Were the travels you’ve taken and written about in your books instrumental to your perspective on commodities?

JR: No. Of course, in my travels I saw the various things that were going on, but I pulled the trigger on this fund in August 1998, and I set out on my most recent round-the-world trip at the end of 1998. When I went, I saw that things I expected, were happening, so it just reinforced what I already thought. Seeing the world will help you and teach you some of this, but it’s not just seeing the world that’s made me realize these forces were underway.

AT: You’ve talked about the fact that there are bound to be corrections — “bumps in the road.” Do you see anything, with regard to China being the driving force, that could really upset that apple cart?

JR: I don’t see much to indicate China would have a permanent setback. In the 19th century, the U.S. had 15 depressions and a civil war — and virtually no human rights and horrible corruption. And we did a pretty good job.

I see setbacks like that coming in China (pause). I guess the world could come to an end, but the world coming to an end would be good for commodities — that and selling short. War is good for commodities — it’s not good for anything else.

I guess I could be wrong about China, but I don’t think so. But I would remind you that in the 70s we had a great bull market in commodities even though economies around the world were in the tank. The U.K. was one of the five largest economies in the world and then they went bankrupt — they had to be bailed out by the IMF (International Monetary Fund). But there was still a gigantic bull market in commodities because supply went down faster than demand.

You can have a bull market when there’s no supply. I use lead in the book as a teaching point. Lead lost its two greatest markets — gasoline and paint — and demand dropped horribly. But lead is at an all-time high because supply went down faster. So bad times don’t preclude a bull market if there is no supply on the horizon.

AT: Thinking from a buy-and-hold stock investor’s perspective, it doesn’t seem viable to think about holding a commodity position for years and years. Buying something cheap is one thing, but how do you get out of positions?

JR: I hope it’s the same way you do with stocks. When it’s time to sell something, you sell it. Just because you’re going to be retiring in 20 years doesn’t mean you buy a stock and never sell it for 20 years. If something were going wrong, you’d want to get out.

With every investment, you must do your homework and stay on top of it. The idea that there’s anything you can buy and not worry about for 20 years is some madness they invented on Wall Street. No serious investor would think about that for a minute.

Do your homework. This book was written not only for professionals but for the public as well. As you mentioned, most people don’t know much about commodities, but they’re sure a lot easier — I didn’t say they were easy — than everything else.

That Yale study I mentioned showed that since 1959 you’d make more money in commodities than in stocks, and you would have had a better inflation hedge. All these people who say stocks are always the place to be haven’t even done their homework. That’s hype — not reality.

Twenty-five years ago most people in the world could not spell “mutual funds” and had no idea stock markets even existed. That changed. There are now 40,000 mutual funds worldwide for stocks and bonds. I have found only four worldwide for commodities. This has a long, long way to go.

The World's Cheapest Stock Market is Ready to Soar

Jim Rogers picked up the phone and called a German stockbroker. He asked the broker to buy him a portfolio of German stocks...

"I think you're about to have the biggest bull market you've had in two or three generations," Rogers told the broker, noting he planned to hold the stocks for three years.

The request confused the broker. Normally, clients would ask him for research or his opinion. He wasn't used to Rogers' forthright manner. Besides, Germany had been in a bear market for two decades. The broker couldn't believe anyone would be crazy enough to put so much money into German stocks.Advertisement

"The broker was dumbfounded," says Rogers. "He thought I was a madman."

It was 1982. The German stock market crumbled in 1962 and had traded sideways ever since. Meanwhile, the German economy had boomed, and companies multiplied their earnings, revenues, and profits.

The situation caught Jim Rogers' eye...

"So there was basic value there," Rogers said in a 1989 interview. "If there is very good value, then I'm probably not going to lose much money even if I'm wrong."

Buying value is a great strategy... but it doesn't work without timing. For instance, Rogers could have bought into Germany five years earlier on the same theory... and sat on dead money for five years.

So Rogers waits for a catalyst. In this case, the catalyst was an election. Rogers knew Germany would throw out the socialists and elect the pro-business Christian Democrat party. He figured German firms would pile money into the economy if the Christian Democrats won the election.

Rogers was right. The pro-business party won the election, and between 1982 and 1985, German stocks nearly tripled.

Jim Rogers is a legend. His book Investment Biker influenced me more than any other finance book I've ever read. I first picked it up 10 years ago, and I've followed Jim Rogers ever since. I've watched his interviews on television, read newspaper stories about him, and attended a couple of his lectures. He doesn't make many investments. And he's always forthright with his opinions. It's never hard to figure out what he's doing with his money.

I can tell you, Jim Rogers is never wrong. Just look at the two trades he's recommended so far this decade. In 1999, he started telling people to buy commodities. He set up an index to track commodities – the Rogers International Commodities Index – and published a book about commodities in 2004. The Rogers International Commodities Index is up 470% since inception.

China was his second trade of the decade. He's been talking up China since the early part of this decade, too. The Chinese stock market went up 400% between 2006 and 2007...

Now Jim is recommending a new trade.

He started investing in this idea in March. It was the first time in his life he'd ever bought a stock in this country. Then, in April, he told an audience he liked this country so much he'd like to live there. The local stock market jumped 2% when traders heard Rogers make these comments...

This stock market has lagged the rest of the world for 10 years. It's the cheapest stock market in the Datastream database of international stock indexes.
Fixing My Big Investment Mistake This Year

We Need to Get Our Money into China
And we have a catalyst. Just like in Germany, a new political party recently won power in this country... And it promises to make major changes.

Jim Rogers tripled his money in Germany. I think he'll triple our money in this market, too. I'll tell you the name of the country in my next column.

A Conversation With Jim Rogers

JIM ROGERS DOESN'T take global investing lightly. The co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros pores over reams of charts and spreadsheets when mulling any overseas investment idea. Then he goes to the country in question. And he doesn't fly there — he drives.

That's right. Rogers is so dedicated to getting, as he says, "the straight skinny" on foreign markets that he decided in 1999 to travel around the world to experience them firsthand, a journey documented in the 2003 book "Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Investor's Road Trip." Actually, this was Rogers' second circumnavigation of the planet (his first was made on a motorcycle more than a decade ago and chronicled in 1991's "Investment Biker") — and this time, he traveled in style. The 60-year-old Rogers got himself a custom-built sunburst-yellow 4x4 Mercedes convertible, and then hitched a trailer full of creature comforts to the back. He even invited a team of cameramen along to film the trip.

Starting off in Iceland, Rogers and his fiancée Paige Parker traveled east through Europe, across Turkey and the "Stans" (Kurdistan, Uzbekistan and so on) into China, back west through Russia, down the Atlantic seaboard of Africa and then back north along the continent's east coast into Egypt, Saudia Arabia and India. Then he went south through Indonesia and Australia, over the Pacific to South America, up through the West Coast of the U.S. and into Canada — finishing the trip, after three years, 116 countries and 152,000 miles, at the doorstep of his Upper West Side mansion in Manhattan.

Along the way, Rogers kept his eye out for good deals, and he found many. Angola, he argues, after years of war and the death of guerilla leader Jonas Savimbi, will become a major player in Africa. East Timor, with vast natural resources, is on the verge of becoming "the next Kuwait." China, not the U.S., will be the dominant nation of the 21st century.

Rogers also found a number of trouble spots. Russia, he says, is rife with corruption and is disintegrating rapidly. Egypt is a powder keg. Pakistan, splintering from within, won't last as a unified country. Mexico, with its declining oil revenues and dwindling direct investment, is in deep trouble.

SmartMoney.com asked Rogers, whose journey set a Guinness World Record for distance traveled by horseless buggy, for some tips he's gleaned from his travels, which currency he thinks has the most potential (it's not the dollar or the euro) and why he thinks commodities are the place to invest right now.

SmartMoney.com: When you drive into a country, what do you look for to help you assess its economic prospects?

Jim Rogers: When you cross a border, you learn a lot of what you need to know. You learn about the bureaucracy. You find out about the black market, if there is one. Is the currency sound? Is it freely tradable? Do you have to pay bribes? And when you drive into the interior, you learn about the infrastructure. Is there an infrastructure? Is it being maintained? Is there electricity? Is there radio, television, newspapers? If there is no black market, that's usually a good sign. If there is one, how high of a premium do you have to pay for the currency? A small premium is a good sign. A big premium means things could fall apart any day. As you get further into the country, you find out about corruption. Are you being harassed by the police? Are there hotels, businesses, farmers, and if there are farmers, are they using machines, or just plows and hoes? What kind of vehicles are on the road? How easy is it to get gas and food? It all starts coming together, and usually by the time I get to the capital, I have a pretty good idea whether or not I want to invest in the country.

SM: Your take on the disparities between the two global powers emerging from communist rule — China and Russia — is rather eye-opening. How do the two differ?

JR: Russia is a disaster that's spiraling into a catastrophe. The Soviet Union was the largest empire that the world has ever seen, and probably ever will see, and now it's breaking up. In the former Soviet Union, there were 124 official ethnic groups, and most of them didn't want to be part of the empire. It's already broken up into 15states. It will be 50 states or 100 states before it's over. When you drive across Russia, you find that much of the country isn't paying much attention to Moscow anymore. Moscow doesn't have control over anything. There is capitalism, but it's outlaw capitalism — the Russian mafia is everywhere. [President Vladimir] Putin has no power, and the Red Army doesn't, either. It still can't handle Chechnya. The whole thing is in the process of disintegrating. There's no reinvestment in infrastructure. People are stripping what they can and selling it.

The Chinese, on the other hand, have had a long history of entrepreneurship and capitalism, and they're on the rise again. They work from dawn to dusk. They save and invest 35% of their income — we save and invest 2% to 3% of our income in the U.S. In addition, there's this huge population of expatriate Chinese, and they're pouring back into the country with their expertise and capital. Nobody is pouring back into Russia — everybody's trying to get out of Russia. And Russia never had a solid entrepreneur class. You want some solid investment advice? Make your children and grandchildren learn Chinese, because the 21st century will be the century of China. The 19th century was the century of the United Kingdom. The 20th century was the century of the U.S. The 21st century will be China's.

SM: During your first trip, you thought several countries in Africa, such as South Africa, had a lot of potential, but you've changed your mind on a number of those countries. What's changed?

JR: During my last trip, I wasn't so much optimistic about South Africa as I was of the opinion that the jury was still out. I wondered whether it was going to make it or not. Now I'm sure it's not going to make it. I wouldn't put any money into South Africa. My enthusiasm was tempered because I found that some of the leaders who looked good on paper and were saying the right things have turned out to be charlatans and just as bad as the previous dictators and thugs.

SM: You were very impressed with Tanzania, though.

JR: Yes, I'm very optimistic about Tanzania. First of all, as a tourist, you can get everything one would want from an African experience. It's got the best wildlife, the best game, it's got Zanzibar, beaches, Kilimanjaro — it's terrific. And they are opening up. The country was a hopeless socialist poster child for decades, but now it has realized its mistakes, and its leaders they say they're changing. We'll see in a few years whether they mean it or not.

SM: You've been very bullish on commodities over the past few years. The commodity index you founded in 1998 — the Rogers International Commodities Index — is up more than 90% since then, more than any other index in the world. Why do you think commodities are the right place to invest your money now?

JR: The main reason is that supply and demand have gotten out of whack. Nobody has built much productive capacity in the commodity industries for a couple of decades. People are looking for hot new stocks or mutual funds, but nobody's looking for lead mines or sugar plantations. There was a huge bear market in commodities in the 1980s and '90s, so productive capacity has declined while demand has continued to grow. So you have supply down and demand up. There were big inventories built up during the cold war, but most of that's been liquidated. When investing, you should always buy the commodities that haven't moved yet, so I guess at the moment that would be sugar and coffee and orange juice. In other words: Buy breakfast.

SM: You've argued that the dollar, which has lost considerable value compared with the euro and the yen in recent months, could lose its status as the world's reserve currency. When do you see that happening?

JR: It's not that it could, it will — just as the pound sterling lost its status. It could be in 20 years, it could be 10 years. We're the largest debtor nation in the world. We owe more than seven trillion dollars to foreigners. If you add up all of the foreign debts of every debtor nation in the world, our foreign debts exceed them all. So there's no question that there's a problem, but we're not doing anything to solve it. In fact, it's getting worse, and people are already looking for other candidates to replace the dollar.

SM: What do you think of the euro?

JR: The euro is flawed. I own the euro now, but it's got its own problems. I think the euro [zone] will break up and disintegrate, because when [the European Union] put it together, they didn't do a very good job of writing the contract. Trying to tell the Portuguese and the Finns and everybody else that they have to do the same thing and synchronize their economies is a mistake. In theory, yes, it could work, but they're trying to make it happen too fast, and that's going to lead to problems down the road.

SM: What about the Chinese yuan?

JR: That's the only currency I see on the horizon that could realistically replace the dollar. It's a blocked currency right now, so you can't trade it, but it will eventually become fully convertible because, for one, China has deals to do so with the World Trade Organization, and two, if nothing else, China will never be able to develop into a great economy if it doesn't have a convertible currency. China has a huge population, a big economy, a large balance-of-trade surplus and huge international reserves, so if any currency could replace the dollar as a reserve currency, it would be the yuan.

谢国忠:中国企业破产潮一定会出现

在去年股市疯狂涨到6000点的时候,他冷言相向,认为A股的合理估值在2500点上下,以至于被多头叫做“乌鸦嘴”,他就是谢国忠。你可以认为他观点过激,或是理想主义,但却不能对他的观点置若罔闻。因为,过去的经验证明,他的大部分预测都是正确的。对于当下中国经济的状况、经济改革的瓶颈、下一轮经济的走向,他会怎么看呢?

通胀时代债券市场不保险

理财一周报:最近中国政府减持了30亿美元的美国债券,此前您也建议政府减持美国债券。您认为这次减持的主要原因是什么?

谢国忠:美国国债市场最终是会回落的,现在是中国逐渐淡出的很好的时机。现在美元债券市场是有特殊力量在支持,比如说,最近一段时间大宗商品不好,很多资金没有出路,纷纷涌到债券市场。现在美国通胀指数非常不好,除非你觉得通胀会有好转,不然的话这种靠资金链支撑的市场是靠不住的。

除了减持美国国债之外,中国还需要缩短每个基金的平均期限,抛什么买什么都不是最重要的,最重要的是每一个基金平均期限要缩短。

理财一周报:截至今年6月底,中国共持有美国国债5038亿美元。中国是否应当继续减持美元债券?您认为减持到多少比较合适?

谢国忠:最近的减持数额对中国来说还是非常小的。我觉得尽量一步步来吧,先把投资从长线的退到中线,中线的退到短线,短线的在美国股市见底的时候转成美国股票,主要是指数基金。我们已经进入通胀时代,债券市场已经不保险了。等到美国股市见底时投资美股是更好的一种配置,因为公司后面是有资产的,资产是抗通胀的。

理财一周报:您的建议是投资美股,但有投行人士分析,就未来的趋势看,欧元、日元、澳元、加元已经见顶,卖掉的美元资产不太可能去购买以上货币,而是应该把撤离债市的资金用于国内基础设施投资、建立股市平准基金或者投资到香港或者其他亚洲市场。您觉得中国政府会这么做吗?

谢国忠:那不可能,这么说是对外汇储备不懂。外汇储备是货币政策管理引起的结果。政府不希望外汇增长太快才进行储备的。如果把外汇换成人民币的话就是扩大货币,就等于是在印钞票。

之所以会有外汇储备,是因为一个央行既不想让汇率升值,又不想让货币增加太快,最重要的是不想让汇率升值,所以它就买美元,发当地的货币。

理财一周报:您刚才提到投资美国股市,您认为合适的时机是在什么时候?

谢国忠:美国股市现在还不便宜,它现在市净率在两倍左右,熊市一般是要跌到1.5倍的。1998年金融危机的时候,美国股市还曾经跌破过1倍。现在美国的金融股倒是很便宜,但是不知道质量怎么样。现在美国金融业的资金数字、盈利都靠不住,所以它的PE(市盈率)、PB(市净率)也都是靠不住的。我觉得投资美股的话可能明年下半年会有机会。

中国企业破产潮一定会出现

理财一周报:既然上述投行讲法您不同意,那您是否认同中国货币政策年底会放松的说法?

谢国忠:中国货币政策放松的话就是从36000亿元的贷款放宽到40000亿元吧。但我认为这种放松空间是在政策制定的时候就已经放好了。

政策制定者在宣布政策的时候总是宣布得比能够接受的少一点。然后等大家都跟你吵架的时候再多放一点,回到你想要的位置。不过,信贷放松这也是救不了经济的,房地产开发商去年买地就买了30000亿元,这个规模的怎么能够呢?

其实中国的货币根本不紧,货币每月以16%~18%的速度在增加,全世界你去看看,哪个国家有这么松?货币政策的紧,是相对于房地产开发商的疯狂。开放商原来疯狂买土地是为了上市,到股市里面去圈钱,现在股市行情差了,没有钱就到银行借钱,银行也没有钱了,就到黑市里面去借。黑市现在利息涨得非常高,超过20%。

理财一周报:现在大家对经济放缓比较担忧,您认为经济放缓会带来哪些影响?

谢国忠:现在主要是出口在放慢,我估计未来12个月,出口有可能都会下降。出口对GDP的拉动在5%左右,2003年到现在每年出口都是以20%的增速在增加。

房地产的问题也和出口有关系,出口出现了问题,热钱就会退,房地产资金链就出现了问题。房地产对GDP的拉动又是2%~3%,出口和房地产加在一起对经济的影响比较大。经济明显放缓是肯定的了。现在每个季度都是0.5个百分点的下降,我估计,中国第三季度经济增长就将明显低于10%。

据我观察,现在房地产开发还没放缓,上半年房地产开发增长30%左右。不过,很多房地产开发商都没钱了,下半年应该不会这么猛了。

中国很多企业都是在泡沫中生存,一旦经济退潮很多企业都活不下去。我去过很多地方,见到很多这样的企业。中国企业的破产潮一定会出现。但经济调整是必然发生的,中国很多企业都是不增值的,本身就是经济的负担。这种调整都是必然的,瘦身是应该的,不瘦身的话,经济是跑不动的。

理财一周报:调整是必然的,但是也有政策效率问题。现在有很多人认为这轮宏观调整中淘汰的都是效率比较高的企业,政府需要出面救助牺牲较大的中小企业。这种观点您怎么看?

谢国忠:中国很多中小企业都是救不活的。它们中有很多本来就不会做生意,都是依靠砍价、欺诈工人、欺诈银行、欺诈供应商生存。除了价格竞争砍价之外,它们就没有其他的经营方式。这种企业从长远来说是没有生存的机会的。

只有在经济调整过程中把低效率、不该生存的企业泡沫挤掉,好的企业才会生长出来。中国现在的情况是,很多企业不会做生意还占着地不走,然后拉政府的关系,拉银行的关系,在政治上施压存活。这使得很多好的企业失去了生长机会。中国企业如果不更新换代的话,经济是不能往上走的。

理财一周报:那么现在政府说要出资救中小企业,您是不是也觉得没有这个必要?

谢国忠:中小企业借款都很小,但是很多企业实际上都是救不活的。浙江现在出了很大的问题,我去看了一下,很多企业是因为它玩房地产才出了问题,主业没有做好就更不要说了。这种情况政府还要去救,怎么救得活?亏空可大了。

我觉得政府要做的应该是不让这些企业逃走,有些企业钱都转到国外去了,你根本逮不到。我们十几年前就经历过这样的事,人都逃走了,债就没主了。

理财一周报:那政府还要去救,您认为这是出于什么考虑?

谢国忠:这些企业和当地政府都是属于共同利益集团的。

贸易转向石油新富国是经济起飞必要条件

理财一周报:出口在放缓,国际环境也充满不确定性,刺激经济是不是主要靠拉动内需?

谢国忠:中国政府现在需要做两件事情,第一是把地方财政搞活,地方财政主要靠土地拉动,现在因为资金链出现问题,有很多退地,当地政府的钱回笼不回来。中国这几年财政都是向中央政府倾斜的,这种时候,中央要把财政多分配给地方。地方财政搞活了,经济就先活起来了,这解决的是一个流通性问题。

第二,当需求不足时就要刺激经济了。1998年我们是靠造公路拉动经济,这次我们要造城市基础设施,包括地铁,污水处理系统、饮用水,铁路等,这些方面是不会浪费的。

另外,政府要启动就是要重组瘦身,就像1998年那样,加快国企改革,公房出售,增加效益。税收要改革,金融体系也要改革。现在我们的金融体系赚钱全部靠政策,今后利率要竞争,汇率现在没有升值压力了,赶快浮动,为下一轮起飞做准备。

改革需要很大的勇气,中国经济现在已经面临很大困难了,不能拆东墙补西墙,混过去就算了,是下决心的时候了。

理财一周报:您刚才提到我们的金融体系主要靠政策盈利,能具体谈谈这个吗?

谢国忠:中国金融实际上是个负增值的行业,利润增加全部靠政策,是拖经济后退的一个行业。比如,银行息差是政府规定的,股市也都是政府在操纵的。企业谁能上市谁不能上市也都是政府定的,中介基本上不起作用。

中国股市有很多地方要改,首先股市上市必须登记制,然后券商要开放,我们现在全部是国企在做券商,国企连银行都做不好,还做得好券商吗?中国的情况就相当于华尔街上的投行全是国企,就是这个概念。银行利息要开放,不能让银行像印钞票一样赚钱。汇率也要继续开放,现在没有增值压力了,是实施浮动汇率改革的好时机。改革一定要有压力,压力大才会改,现在既得利益者太多了。

理财一周报:现在国内外的经济都在放缓,在这种双重压力下,是不是改革的最好时机?

谢国忠:中国都是有压力才会有明显的改革,这要看明年的压力有多大了。

理财一周报:奥运后能源价格调整是不是会继续进行?

谢国忠:如果能源的价格全部掉下来的话,中国的压力又减轻了。但是我认为这种可能性不是很大,美国的货币这么松,印了这么多钞票,能源的价格怎么可能掉下来呢?不太可能的。现在美国的金融体系基本上已经破产了,所以才会疯狂印钞票。

理财一周报:您在一篇文章中提到,下一轮经济增长应该是靠亚洲国家的相互贸易实现。能具体阐述这个观点吗?

谢国忠:中国没有贸易肯定是发展不起来的,美国现在没钱了,钱跑到哪里去了呢?都跑到出口能源产品、石油的国家去了。现在这些国家的钱多得用不完,所以贸易要想办法赚它们的钱。这个转型做好了,是经济起飞的一个必要的条件。

不过,经济起飞的前提条件是上面提到的金融改革、企业瘦身等提高经济效益的措施。

理财一周报:在您的观察中,现在有没有向这些方面转型的苗头?

谢国忠:现在做得比较成功的比如华为、中交(中国交通建设股份有限公司),都在这些国家开拓了市场。机械设备行业也有一些,基本上都是朝那个方向走。不过,我们的传统出口行业还没有转过来,比如轻纺、电子等行业。

以前我们跟美国人做生意,设计等核心领域都是美国人在做,中国就相当只有一个工厂、一个车间。企业的大脑、心脏都是在其他地方。

一个完整的商业体系需要你去做品牌、做销售、做设计,这对于很多习惯了做加工的企业来说改变是不切合实际的。企业转型说到底是人的转型,人要变的话是难上加难。满足新需求需要新的企业。

传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯

吉姆·罗杰斯1942年出生于美国亚拉巴马州;1964年毕业于耶鲁大学。1964年到1966年,罗杰斯就读于牛津大学。罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)是是量子基金的创始人之一,国际著名的投资家和金融学教授,还是《时代》、《华盛顿邮报》、 《纽约时报》、《巴龙》、《福布斯》、《财富》、《华尔街日报》、《金融时报》的长期撰稿人。他先后两次进行环球投资之旅,足迹遍及包括中国在内的110多个国家。

引文:他来自小城镇,后来成了华尔街神童。在上世纪 70 年代,他与乔治·索罗斯合伙,成立了历史上最有名的投资团队。后来,他又摇身一变,成了金融界的夺宝奇兵,两次周游世界,在一些最不可能的地方进行着非常有利可图的投资。

嘿,吉姆,我该在阿根廷买地吗?嗯,你还是去安哥拉吧,它在非洲。

吉姆,你对黄金有何看法?如果你把你的黄金变成铅,那你赚的钱要多得多。

无论走到哪里,吉姆·罗杰斯总能碰到他的仰慕者。这对于作为量子基金的创始人之一、环球旅行被吉尼斯世界记录记载的罗杰斯来说,早已经习以为常。而当细读罗杰斯传奇的投资故事时,我们会发现他的勤奋与做事的投入、他独特的投资思维视角、他的理财方式都是值得津津乐道的。

勤奋与投入
吉姆·罗杰斯生于1942年10月19日,在5 个兄弟中排行老大,在亚拉巴马州的德莫波利斯这个小镇度过了他愉悦的童年时光。罗杰斯的父亲参加过二次世界大战的老兵,退役后,白天经营一家化工厂,晚上则兼职做会计,父亲为罗杰斯树立了勤奋工作的榜样。即使是现在,罗杰斯也会将他的很多成功都归于勤奋。我并不觉得自己聪明,但我确实非常、勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作,也很热爱自己的工作,就有成功的可能。他说,每个人都梦想着赚很多的钱,但是,我告诉你,这是不容易的。当他还是一个专职的货币经理时,他曾这样讲过:生活中最重要的事情是工作。在工作做完之前,我不会去做任何其他事情。

而后在与和索罗斯合作时,这种勤奋被表现得甚至为疯狂,在哥伦市环道上的办公室,他不停地工作--10年期间没有休过一次假。这在后来乔治·索罗斯的回忆录中曾经这样写道,罗杰斯一人干了六个人的活儿。

对于这段时期的生活,罗杰斯这样说,再也没有比市场更令我兴奋和开心的了。那就是我想做的一切。我投入了全部精力,总是急着去了解一切能够了解的东西。干这行就像不停地在做四维拼图游戏,无论你做了什么,图件每次都会发生变化,你必须每次重新把它们拼起来。我每天每刻都坐在那里,玩着这种拼图游戏,还得赶在别人之前把图拼出来,没有比这更刺激的了。

成败得失
可以说,与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金成就了二人以后的事业。到了20世纪70年代,这个基金成长超过4000%,同期内,标准普尔五百种股价指数才成长还不到50%。在1970~1980年的10年里,量子基金的复合收益高达37%,超过同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。罗杰斯在该基金中的投资据称已达1400万美元。这为37岁的罗杰斯决定壮年退休奠定了良好的经济基础。

不过罗杰斯获得如此成就并非偶然,他的投资天分从小就已经表现得淋漓尽致了。有资料表明,5岁时他开始做平生第一份工作--在棒球赛场上拣空瓶赚钱。6岁时从父亲那里借了100美元作为做生意的启动资金,购买了一台花生烘烤机,每周五晚上在当地在高中橄榄球比赛时卖烤花生和苏打水。5年后,还清欠款,并在银行的户头存有了100美元。随后,在朝鲜战争期间,他用这100美元和父亲一起到乡下去做投机生意,购买了价格正日益飞涨的牛犊,并出钱让农民饲养,希望次年出售并卖个好价钱。不过这次的投机失败了。直到20年后,罗杰斯从书本上明白了失败的原因,由于买点太高,使他们的投资被战后价格的回落吞噬得一干二净。

知道华尔街是1964年的事,他在快要毕业时,学校就业指导办公室提供的一次偶然面试机会让他得到了华尔街的一份暑期工作。由于估算智利爆发革命会使铜价上涨,公司老板就给了他一大笔钱。这也促使他1968年揣着仅有的600美元正式来到华尔街工作,也才有了与索罗斯共创全球型投资合伙量子基金的机会。

不过在华尔街的这段时间,罗杰斯也曾经有过一段借债度日非常痛苦的经历,1970年毕业后罗杰斯选择投资管理行业开始了自己的职业投资生涯。最先在华尔街一家小公司当分析师,债券、股票、外汇和商品期货,什么都做。1970年,我觉得市场在走低。于是我做了卖空的决定,因为我觉得市场要跌。6个月来我都是这样操作的,后来市场起来了,我还这样操作,于是我赔了个倾家荡产,差点把摩托车也卖了。

罗杰斯说他当时想过放弃,我想干点别的事情,比如做电视,或者去当教授,或者其他别的事情。但是他意识到投资这一行给了他很多乐趣,而且如果功课做到家,如果有韧性,就总能重振雄风。他最终还是认为这是最好的工作,非常热爱这工作。自己每次犯错误都是因为没有把功课做好,不能怪运气不好,也不能怪有人操作市场,只能怪自己。罗杰斯从那段日子里得到教训:学会除非知道自己在做什么,否则最好什么也别做。也学会除非等到一个完全对自己有利的时机,否则最好不要贸然进场,这样,即使你犯下错误,也不会遭受重大伤害。

独立的投资思维
摆脱了量子基金每日 18小时的工作后,罗杰斯没有再加盟任何一家投资公司。他尝试转型为专家,时常在商业电视节目中抛头露面。为了得到哥伦比亚大学体育馆的终身会员资格,他同意在该大学商学院教授证券分析课程,以此作为交换。他最终成了一名全职教授。

罗杰斯认为投资者最重要的事情就是发展独立思考的能力。也许是投资经历让罗杰斯有着更多的感悟,他一直认为学经济的最好办法是投资做生意。他在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学时,他教的不是那种经济学院里通常学的金融课,他教授学生他所知道的东西,教学生按他投资的方法去投资,按他的思路去看市场和机会。沃伦·巴菲特曾参加过他的一个班,那是绝对令人激动的……他将真实的投资世界带入教室。巴菲特认为罗杰斯对市场大趋势的把握无人能及。

而这种新奇的投资方法成为罗杰斯成功的关键。与索罗斯分道扬镳后,罗杰斯始终没有抗拒过投资机会对他的诱惑。他以自己的方式投资,开始了他让人目眩神迷的独立投资生涯。从葡萄牙、奥地利、德国,到新加坡、巴西、新加坡,罗杰斯把赌注押在国家上的投资风格体现得淋漓尽致。他用西方金融家的眼光,洞察所到之处的投资机会,并亲身实践。如果他确定一个国家比众人相信的更加有前途时,他就会在其他的投资者意识到之前,先把赌注投入到这个国家,并获得了巨大成功。

这些我们可以从他投资股票中来了解,1982年,罗杰斯开始分批买入西德股票,1985年与1986年分批卖出,获得3倍利润。1984 年,他开始考察几乎被人放弃的奥地利股市,买进了仍在上市交易的大约 30 家公司中多数公司的股票,这笔投资在接下来几年中增值了 400% 多,以此被敬称为奥地利股市之父。

1991 年,他骑摩托车经过非洲的博茨瓦纳,惊奇地发现城里到处是高级轿车、货币可以自由兑换、国家有三年的外汇储备、政府预算和外贸都是顺差,而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票,并告诉经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果,2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。

同样在中国,1999年,罗杰斯在其第二次环球投资旅行时曾在上海证券交易所开户,并对B股市场有过一番高论。他说B股股指已从高位下跌85%,考虑到中国的惊人潜力,投资价值之大不言而喻。此后事情的发展更验证了他的判断,1999年上海B股指数只有50多点,而2001年最高到达240多点,两年多的时间获得4~6倍的利润。

不过即便这样,罗杰斯却总是称自己特别不善于掌握市场时机,是世界上最差劲的交易员。对于股市的投资,罗杰斯认为,我喜欢赚钱,让我们一起赚钱吧。最重要的是,你要知道一个非常简单的道理,低买高卖。你能做到。在股市上真正能挣到钱的那些赢家,最大特征是什么?怀疑、好奇和坚持。罗杰斯总说,他喜欢在投资时进行慎重选择,然后长期持有。他对商品的投资尤为如此。如果对自己的行为茫然无知,绝不要草率投资。与其每年在金融市场亏损2%、3%,甚至是22%,还不如把钱存在银行,这样至少每年可以收益2%或者3%。如果你不知道自己在做什么,肯定会亏钱,这也正是他进行环球旅行投资,了解世界的初衷。

理财手段
瑞士出生的经济学家和市场大师马克o法伯曾经这样评价过罗杰斯,他思想很独特,直言不讳,而且他愿意表明自己的看法。我知道他是否赚钱吗?我无法知道。因为他不理财。他只为自己理财,而且没有留下任何记录。而当人们追问罗杰斯有关其投资回报的详情时,他会说,我是亚拉巴马人。我妈妈和爸爸教导我,永远不要谈论你有多少钱、东西有多贵,还有你赚多少钱。

罗杰斯最喜欢的地方是曼哈顿上西区那套 5 层维多利亚式洋房。这座房子是一位富商于 1899 年建造的,至今仍然保留着原来的橡木和红木雕刻的墙面,另外还有几间厨房、一个送菜升降机、一部工作电梯、一个安装了按摩浴缸并能够看得见哈得逊河景色的屋顶平台。罗杰斯用很多富有异国情调的东西来装饰它,如北极熊皮制成的地毯,还有他从阿拉斯加买来的猛象长牙。1977 年,罗杰斯从第二位房主那里买来一套房子,当时纽约市处于破产边缘,房市一落千丈。他花了 10.5 万美元,而今这座房子价值逾 1500 万美元。

现在,如果你见到罗杰斯,就可以很清楚地发现,他的女儿毫无疑问已是他生活的中心。不过,罗杰斯没有为女儿购买股票,但却给她买了白金、黄金等商品。罗杰斯风趣地说:感谢上帝,我拥有一个女儿,学着中文,钱存在瑞士,还持有大量白银和黄金。罗杰斯认为,在过去的10~20年当中,全球股票有一个巨大的增长。在未来的10~15年内,美国和西方股票市场只会在目前的水平上窄幅波动。只要买入就能赚钱的年代已经过去。在未来的几年内,大家应该关注原油和原材料市场。原材料市场在上世纪八、九十年代一直处于巨大的熊市之中。现在,原材料市场已经开始启动,并可能在未来的10~0年内有一个持续的成长。一个长期的熊市已经结束,而一个大牛市刚刚开始。

同样罗杰斯表示,他的小女儿虽然开了银行账户,有瑞士的,有中国的,但没有美国的银行账户,因为他不看好美国经济。罗杰斯告诉大家,他的小女儿正在学中文,因为当今世界最重要最显着的变化是中国的崛起。将来有一天,我会把全部的钱,都投资在中国。而同样的论断在罗杰斯第一次环游世界时,拍摄播出的机车长征纪录片中有过,罗杰斯预测中国前途无量。

吉姆·罗杰斯投资哲理

  ●学习历史和哲学吧,干什么都比进商学院好;当服务员,去远东旅行。

  ●发现低买高卖的机会的办法,是寻找那些未被认识到的,或未被发现的概念或者变化。

  ●每当中央银行在维护某种东西的低价位时,聪明的投资者就会反其道而行之。不管赌什么,永远跟中央银行相反。

  ●投资的铁律就是正确认识供求关系。

  ●埋头苦读很有用处。必须独立思考,必须抛开羊群心理。

  ●绝不赔钱法则。除非你真的了解自己在干什么,否则什么也别做。

  ●价值投资法则。如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进,即使买进的时机不对,你也不至于遭到重大亏损。

  ●投资的法则之一是袖手不管,等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。

传奇投资家:吉姆.罗杰斯

吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)国际著名的投资家和金融学教授。他具有传奇般的投资经历。从他与金融大鳄索罗斯创立的令人闻之色变的量子基金到牛气十足的罗杰斯国际商品指数(RICI),从两次环球投资到被Jon Train’s Money Masters of Our Time,Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards等著名年鉴收录,无不令世人为之叹服。

  1942年吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)出生于美国亚拉巴马州

  1964年毕业于耶鲁大学

  1964年到1966年,就读于牛津大学

  1970年与索罗斯共同创立了量子基金,取得了令人瞩目的成绩

  1980年离开量子基金后,在哥伦比亚大学商学院讲学

  1989-1990年完成了第一次环球旅行,并被吉尼斯世界记录记载

  1998年创立罗杰斯国际商品指数(RICI),到2003年11月该指数已达119.73%的升幅,超过同期主要指数

  1999年第二次环球旅行时,投资上海B股,同样获得巨大成功,时代(Time)称其为金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)

传奇投资家吉姆·罗杰斯
吉姆·罗杰斯的中国之行掀起不小的波澜,这位曾经被巴菲特称为“对大势的把握无人能及”的投资大师,传奇性不仅是他的投资历史,还有那些足以让人们为之激动的环球考察旅行。

当罗杰斯缓缓走来,给大家一个态度谦和的微笑的时候,很难想象他名字背后一连串的传奇:和索罗斯共同建立量子基金哥伦比亚大学教授,两次环游地球打破吉尼斯世界记录,被《时代周刊》称金融界的印地安那·琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance)。拨开缭绕的光环,我们看到的是一个勤奋、谦虚、有激情、热爱生活又风趣幽默的罗杰斯,“投资不是投机。”--这即是他投资的原则,也是他做人的准则。

环游地球为投资铺路
“当我和太太在玻利维亚的候,我们遇见那里最顶的巫师。我们给了她5美元。只要给她5美元,她就会帮助你达成愿望,而我们的愿望就是能活着回到美国。”已然60多岁的罗杰斯在中欧国际工商学院演讲时半开玩笑地说,“以后到玻利维亚一定要记着给那位巫师5美元啊--我活到现在就是最好的例子。”

罗杰斯说起自己环球旅行的时候快乐得像个小孩子,手舞足蹈、连比带划。“环游世界是我从小的梦想!”这句话他强调了很多遍。

他曾经两次环游世界,第一次在1990年,骑着摩托车,去50多个国家,花了近两年时间;第二次是1999年,开着奔驰旅行车,历时三年,途经116个国家,从冰岛出发经过欧洲、日本、中国、俄罗斯、非洲、南极、澳大利亚、南美洲然后回到美国,打破了吉尼斯世界记录。“我和太太的环球旅行有两个成果,一个是Adventure Capitalist正式出版,另一个成果就是我第一个女儿的出生,她现在只有11个月,我觉得非常幸福。”

“ADVENTURE CAPITALIST”是罗杰斯的旅行手记,他用投资家的眼光洞察所到之处的投资机会。通常,他认为进入一个国家后,只要兑换这个国家的货币,使用这个国家的货币时没有问题,在开车的过程中只要这个国家的道路交通条件良好,那这个国家就是可以投资的。

“货币确实非常重要。很多国家都实行外汇管制,所以我们为了钱的问题伤透了脑筋,有时候出于无奈还必须走私现金,然后在黑市上兑换。这些国家显然还不太适合投资。”罗杰斯不无感慨地说起他和太太在某国的遭遇--当他在当地的ATM机上取钱时,正准备拿回信用卡的当口,却不料钱被ATM机鬼神差地“吃”了进去。无处伸冤的罗杰斯最后只能找到当地的黑手党,把吃进ATM机里的钱硬生生地掏了出来。

在非洲的博茨瓦纳,他惊讶地发现城市中到处是高级轿车,当地的货币可以自由兑换,这个国家有三年的外汇储备,政府预算和外贸都是顺差,而股票市场只有7名职员和7只股票,股价很低还有现金红利。罗杰斯当即购买了全部股票,并委托经纪人买下以后上市的每一只股票。结果,2002年博茨瓦纳被《商业周刊》评为10年来增长最快的国家。

这些故事让罗杰斯很兴奋:“我们每到一个地方,都尽量和当地人同吃同住,用他们的生活方式体会他们的生活,从中可以学到很多很多的东西,包括发现很多投资机会。”环游世界的浪漫梦想就这样和金融投资考察实现了无缝连接,就像他自己说的,“赚钱和理想融合是最美妙的事情。”

投资哲学:脚踏实地
“我人生中最成功的投资是我11个大的女儿,我有过很多成功的、失败的投资经验,但从成功中学到的东西远不及从失败中学到的多。”当记者问及他辉煌的投资历史时,罗杰斯的回答有点出人意料,却又在情理之中。

他举了个例子。“在我非常年轻的时候,有一年,我判断股市将要崩盘。在美国,你可以通过卖空来赚钱。后来确实如我所料,股市大跌,金融机构纷纷破产,一瞬间我的资金翻了三倍,当时我觉得自己实在是太聪明了。”尝了甜头后,罗杰斯判断市场将近一步下跌,于是集中了自己所有的资金大力卖空,而股市却极不合作地上涨了“最后只能斩仓,账户里一分不剩。我当时穷得把自己的摩托车都卖掉了。”事后,他发觉自己当时根本不清楚自己在做什么,自己对股市继续下跌的判断其实没有任何研究做支撑,于是他翻然醒悟,“获得成功后往往会被胜利冲昏头脑,这种时候尤其需要平静的思考。”

事实上,罗杰斯一直成功地扮演着传奇投资家的角色,这一点在他六岁的时候就已经显现。当时他获准在青年联赛上出售软饮料和花生,于是罗杰斯向爸爸借了100美元买了个烘花生的设备,五年后,他不仅归还了当初借来的“启动资金”100美元,还获得了100美元的利润。从耶鲁和牛津毕业后,罗杰斯和索罗斯共同创立了量子基金。在1970至1980年的十年里,量子基金的复合收高达37%,超过了同期巴菲特的29%和彼得林奇的30%。索罗斯曾经在接受记者采访时说到:罗杰斯最重要的构想应该是国防工业类股,当时国防工业完全被人忽略,从上次国防工业景气结束后,只残留一两位分析师继续研究这个行业。1980年和索罗斯分道扬镳后,1982年,罗杰斯开始分批买入当时的西德股票,1985年与1986年分批出,获得3倍利润。当时的实际情况是,从1961年一直到1982年8月,西德市从来没有出现过多头市场,完全无视这21年来西德经济的持续蓬勃发展。因此,罗杰斯认为,西德股市已经具备介入的价值,如果投资西德股市的话,可以确保不会亏损。在确认总体具备投资价值以后,罗杰斯也看到了当时的西德股市腾飞的契机--西德大选。结果,在基督教民主党赢得大选的当天,西德股市就告大涨,罗杰斯取得了巨大成功。

1984年,外界极少关注、极少了解的奥地利股市暴跌到1961年的一半时,罗杰斯亲往奥地利实地考查。经过缜密的调查研究后,他认定机会到来,于是大量购买了奥地利企业的股票、债券。第二年,奥地利股市起死回生,奥地利股市指数在暴涨中上升了145%,罗杰斯大有所获,因此美名远播,人敬称为“奥地利股市之父”。

对于投资,罗杰斯给大家的建议是,“每个人应该找到适合自己的投资方式。我本人比较喜欢那些无人关注的、股价便宜的股票。但是做出背离大众的选择是需要勇气的,而且我认为最重要的是扎实的研究和分析。”他一再强调“如果想要长期地赚大钱,一定要脚踏实地。”

买中国B股赚了大钱
罗杰斯在ADVENTURE CAPITALIST的中文版序言中写到:“在我游历的这116个国家中,我最喜欢中国,很想在中国上海定居。”他也曾经在很多个场合中说,“19世纪是英国的世纪,20世纪是美国的世纪,21世纪是中国的世纪。”

罗杰斯显然并不只是说说已。1999年途径上海时,他特地去海通证券营业部开立了B股账户。“之前,所有的朋友都说,绝对不要投资中国B股。但我知道,如果他们那样说的话,我就应该去投资。”事实是,B股之后确实连续上涨,罗杰斯获了500%的利润。

他认为,最近尽管有宏观调控的忧虑,中国还是有很多投资机会,比如期货、旅游或者交通行业。“我接下去会考察一下上海商品交易和大连商品交易所,为下一轮的投资做准备。我还会为我女儿开立一个中国的股票交易账户,虽然她才11个月。”面对大家的惊讶表情,罗杰斯补充说,“我已经准备让我女儿学习中文了,我要让她了解中国。”

罗杰斯七条投资法则

1.勤奋。
“我并不觉得自己聪明,但我确实非常、非常、非常勤奋地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作,也很热爱自己的工作,就有成功的可能”。这一点,索罗斯也加以证实,在接受记者采访时,索罗斯说,“罗杰斯是杰出的分析师,而且特别勤劳,一个人做六个人的工作”。
评价:一份耕耘一份收获,但也要注意看“场所”。勤奋首先是一种精神状态:每次行动之先,是慎密的思考和研究:是“精打细算之后准确地出击”!

2.独立思考。
“我总是发现自己埋头苦读很有用处。我发现,如果我只按照自己所理解的行事,既容易又有利可图,而不是要别人告诉我该怎么做。”罗杰斯从来都不重视华尔街的证券分析家。他认为,这些人随大流,而事实上没有人能靠随大流而发财。“我可以保证,市场永远是错的。必须独立思考,必须抛开羊群心理。”
评价:“每个人都必须找到自己成功的方式,这种方式不是政府所引导的,也不是任何咨询机构所能提供的,必须自己去寻找。”-吉姆-罗杰斯

3.别进商学院。
“学习历史和哲学吧,干什么都比进商学院好;当服务员,去远东旅行。”罗杰斯在哥伦比亚经济学院教书时,总是对所有的学生说,不应该来读经济学院,这是浪费时间,因为算上机会成本,读书期间要花掉大约10万美元,这笔钱与其用来上学,还不如用来投资做生意,虽然可能赚也可能赔,但无论赚赔都比坐在教室里两三年,听那些从来没有做过生意的“资深教授”对此大放厥词地空谈要学到的东西多。
评价:成功并不完全取决于专业知识,更主要的是一种思维方法和行为能力。哲学能使人聪明,而历史使人温故而知新,更加明智。

4.绝不赔钱法则。
“除非你真的了解自己在干什么,否则什么也别做。假如你在两年内靠投资赚了50%的利润,然而在第三年却亏了50%,那么,你还不如把资金投入国债市场。 你应该耐心等待好时机,赚了钱获利了结,然后等待下一次的机会。如此,你才可以战胜别人。”“所以,我的忠告就是绝不赔钱,做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去。”
评价:知己知彼,百战百胜!不打无准备之仗!

5.价值投资法则。
如果你是因为商品具有实际价值而买进,即使买进的时机不对,你也不至于遭到重大亏损。“平常时间,最好静坐,愈少买卖愈好,永远耐心地等候投资机会的来临。”“我不认为我是一个炒家,我只是一位机会主义者,等候机会出现,在十足信心的情形下才出击”罗杰斯如是说。
评价:“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军复没!当然,最好是恰到好处契准目标!

6.等待催化因素的出现。
市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振。为了避免使资金陷入如一潭死水的市场中,你就应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。
评价:“万事具备,只欠东风”耐心等待时机和契机!

7.静若处子法则。
“投资的法则之一是袖手不管,除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出,找些事情做。他们可能会说‘看看我有多高明,又赚了3倍。’然后他们又去做别的事情,他们就是没有办法坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”罗杰斯对“试试手气”的说法很不以为然。“这实际上是导致投资者倾家荡产的绝路。若干在股市遭到亏损的人会说:‘赔了一笔,我一定要设法把它赚回来。’越是遭遇这种情况,就越应该平心静气,等到市场有新状况发生时才采取行动。”
评价:一旦出击,就静待佳音,放手不管;遭遇不顺,马上休息。

国际著名投资大师 JIM ROGERS 定居新加坡

国际著名投资家和金融学教授Jim Rogers[美国人],是一位曾被时代杂志称其为金融界的印地安那.琼斯(the Indiana Jones of finance),还被股神巴菲特称为"对大势的把握无人能及的投资大师"
Rogers深信中国将是21世纪最重要的国家,为了要让女兒能讲流利华语,拥有深厚的中华文化底蕴,他选定新加坡。
他说:新加坡空气清新、学校教华文,医疗卫生好、对我和妻子耒说、是个完美的城市。
他也看好中国,他说:我是一个喜欢读历史的人,据我所知,世界上没有一个国家能够大起大落四五次之多。埃及、罗馬和英国都只兴盛一次,中国却兴盛了四五次,我不知道为什么他们有这份能耐,也许是这个国家的基因使然吧。
"中国虽然还自称是共产主义国家,其实,他们是全世界最优秀的资本主义国家。就象意大利还自称是天主教国家,其实不是,我们不必在意这些标签。
他说:基于种种原因,我的判断也许有错,但是掌握一个全世界每天有13亿人在讲的語文,了解它的文化总好过叫她去学只有700万人讲的丹麦语。
中国当然还有很多问题,就像美国在19世纪遭遇15次经济萧条,内战,没有人权等等....,但这些灾难並没有阻止它后来的成功。

Jim Rogers

James B. Rogers, Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and financial commentator. He is co-founder, along with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund, and is a college professor, author, world traveler, economic commentator, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Rogers, whose full name is James Beeland Rogers, was born in Wetumpka, Alabama. He grew up in Demopolis, getting started in business at the age of five, picking up bottles at baseball games. He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick, after graduating with a bachelor's degree from Yale University in 1964. Rogers then acquired a master's degree from Balliol College, Oxford University in 1966. After Oxford, Rogers returned to the U.S. and enlisted in the army for a few years.

In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the fund gained 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47% (963.99/800.36). It was one of the first truly international funds.

In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and traveled on motorcycle through China. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker.

In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its 3 sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index.

Between January 1, 1999 and May 1, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure.

On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business which airs every Saturday. He has a daughter, Happy, born in 2003. In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. In this book, Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures. Rogers contends this paper shows that commodities investment is one of the best investments over time, which is a concept somewhat at odds with conventional investment thinking.

In Sep. 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 15 million USD and moved to Singapore. This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers' daughter is being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says. "Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908," he said. Also, he is quoted to say: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia." In an CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in Asia are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment to be himself motivated and driven. He said during that interview that, this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his daughter.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

羅傑斯的信

移居新加坡的投資大師羅傑斯,將他過去做為投資家和冒險家所學來的知識,寫成一封封的信,留給兩個女兒當作一生最珍貴的禮物。

你們的父親是位投資家,也是個勤奮的人,盡其所能得學習新知識來賺錢,所以才能在37歲時退休。我想告訴你們我從這些經驗中所學到的東西。

我是個鄉下來的孩子,一心想著如何賺到足夠的錢使自己自由自在、毋須聽人使喚。我五歲時就在棒球場撿空可樂瓶去換錢,這是我第一份賺錢的工作;六歲時就在球場中有自己的攤子。

最後我到了華爾街,在這裡我發現最佳的賺錢機會──竟然有人付錢給我發揮我的熱情,附加獎賞則是盡可能的認識這個世界。一旦賺夠足以讓我退休的財富,我就不再需要工作,也因此可以隨心所欲的環遊世界,並滿足我想知道世界是怎麼運轉的學習熱忱。

還是個孩子的時候,我就喜歡找事做,而且大多做得相當成功。但現在,這世界上能帶給我最大快樂的是我的家庭。我的最新探險,就是在2003年及2008年生的兩個寶貝女兒。為了妳們兩個,我要與妳們分享下面這些應該知道的重要事情,使妳們也能過成功的日子。

第一封信:沒有人靠有樣學樣而成功

假如周遭的人都勸你不要做某件事,甚至嘲笑你根本不該想去做,就可以把這件事當作可能成功的指標。

在生命中總會有某個時刻需要你下非常重要的決定--關於你的工作、家庭、生活,關於住在哪裡,關於怎麼投資你的金錢。這時會有很多人願意提供你忠告,但是記住這句話:你的生活是你自己的,不是別人的。

別人的忠告當然有對的時候,但事後證明這些忠告無用的次數卻更多。妳們必須靠自己研究──盡可能學習面對挑戰的本事,自行判斷訊息的真偽並為自己做決定。

妳們天生就有能力為自己的最大利益下最好的決策,在大多數的情況下,經過自己的思索比違背自己的意願而聽從他人的決定,更能做出正確的決策並採取正確的行動。

過去,我在幾個重要的投資決策上,曾經聽從別人勸告而忽略自己內心的決定。奇怪得很,每次這樣的投資都失敗,每一次都讓我損失慘重。於是我不再讓別人影響我,並根據自己所下的決定採取行動。直到年過30,我終於瞭解這才是最佳的投資之道;我同時也知道,我之所以會成功是因為自己遵照這個原則,而不去想會不會太遲了。

我記得小時候讀過一篇關於游泳健將唐娜‧迪薇羅娜(Donna de Varona)的報導,報導指出早期她是個不錯但並非頂尖的游泳選手,但是她後來卻在奧運中拿到兩面金牌,究竟發生什麼事了?她回答記者:「以前我老是在注意別的游泳選手,但是之後我就學會無視於他們,游我自己的泳。」

假如每個人都嘲笑你的想法,這就是可能成功的指標!

假如周遭的人都勸你不要做某件事,甚至嘲笑你根本不該想去做,就可以把這件事當作可能成功的指標。這個道理非常重要,妳們一定要瞭解:與眾人反向而行是很需要勇氣的。事實是,這世界上從不曾有哪個人是只靠「從眾」(follow the crowd)而成功的。

我用中國給妳們舉個例子。過去人家都說那不是一個值得投資的國家,而事實上,直到1990年代晚期之前,幾乎沒有西方人真的試著在中國投資過。

在 1980年代,我發現中國大有潛力,於是開始盡我所能的蒐集中國的資料,開始在這裡投資。當時大部分人都認為我瘋了才會這麼做,他們說這個食古不化、不知變通的共產國家,絕對不會允許外國人在這裡投資成功,而且他們會沒收成功者的財產。但我聽從自己的直覺,盡可能的判讀所有找得到的有關中國各種局勢的文件,也實地參訪好些地方,做自己的研究。

邏輯很簡單:那個國家有超過10億的人口,他們的儲蓄率高得驚人──超過年收入的三分之一──而這些錢是他們可以用來投資的。一個有這麼高儲蓄率的國家,怎麼可能不會成長?

相反的,看看美國。在1990年代我第一次環球旅行時,美國的儲蓄率只有4%,現在甚至跌到只剩2%;雪上加霜的是,美國還有嚴重的財政危機。當別人相信一些「常識」,認為投資中國太冒險時,我聽從自己的判斷,大膽的投資中國。從那時開始,中國的成長已遠遠超越美國和世界上絕大部分的其他國家。

仔細觀察每個領域的成功者,不論是音樂家、藝術家或是什麼專家,他們之所以成功,都不是因為模仿別人。有任何人因為看著別人的作為有樣學樣而成功的嗎?

以惠普科技(HP)為例,他們能脫穎而出,就是因為他們做的是與眾不同的事。要做別人不敢做、不願做的事,你得有熱情與勇氣,而成功永遠降臨在那些大膽冒險、敢走別人不走的路的人身上。這正是為什麼惠普能成為一家重要的公司。惠普永遠不怕跳得太高,即使可能因此使部分產品賣不出去或報廢,也勇於嘗試新的機會。

我要妳們以這種勇氣追求自己的理想與抱負。

第二封信:做你熱愛的事

假如你喜歡燒菜,就去開一間你自己的餐館;假如你擅長跳舞,就去學跳舞。想成功最快的方法,是做你喜歡做的事,然後全力以赴。

在我開始第一項事業時,我是個6歲的企業家。妳們或許會覺得太早了點吧,其實年齡與你想開始做什麼事並不相干。我寧可花時間在棒球場撿空瓶子換錢,也不願花時間在球場上跟朋友打棒球。

我在6歲時,第一次借到錢來開展自己的事業。我買了一部賣花生米和可樂的小推車,在兒童棒球聯盟比賽時,成功的賺了不少錢。5年之後,我不但還清了向我父親借貸的錢,銀行裡還有一百美元的存款。

當你發現有一件事是你感興趣的,別讓年齡牽絆你,去做就是了。

該怎麼做才會成功呢?答案非常簡單:做你熱愛的事。我在投資方面會成功,因為那是我最喜歡做的事。假如你喜歡燒菜,就去開一間你自己的餐館;假如你擅長跳舞,就去學跳舞。想成功最快的方法,是做你喜歡做的事,然後全力以赴。

對我來說,研究世界各地發生的事,並且知道得透徹詳細,是我的樂趣。早在學生時代,我就對世界各國的歷史地理深感興趣。當我到華爾街工作時,我發現真的有人願意付錢買我的知識:比如,智利的革命會使銅的價格上漲。

只要負擔得起基本的生活費用,我會很高興免費研究這些事。能做自己喜歡做的事的人,他們不是在「上班」,而是每天迫不及待睜開眼睛,趕快去享受工作的樂趣。

假如選擇一個妳們不關心的領域,就不可能有希望獲得成功。

假如你喜歡且關心自己所做的事,自然會想把它們做得最好。投資和生活一樣,細節往往是成功或失敗的關鍵。所以你不能忽略任何細節,不管它看似多麼的無關緊要,你必須搜尋、驗證每個訊息,只要與你的投資決策有關,都不能掉以輕心。任何讓你覺得不安的問題或感覺,都要找出答案來。大部分人之所以不成功,原因往往出在研究不夠徹底,只看他們隨手可拿到的資訊。

當我在耶魯大學念書時,有位同學問我,我花了多少時間準備考試。他認為花五個小時準備就很夠用了。我無法回答自己花了多少時間,因為我根本一直在讀書、溫習功課。來自阿拉巴馬的窮鄉僻壤,能夠進入耶魯大學就足以讓我頭昏了,其他大部分同學都來自有名的高中,根基都比我好。我唯一比他們強的地方是我比他們用功,我盡可能的讀書,我認為沒有「我已經準備得夠好了」這回事。

我所做的成功投資,都是因為事先花時間盡可能的蒐集資訊,詳細研讀每個細節。假如你涉入自己不懂的事物,那你永遠不會成功。假如你對自己不瞭解的東西下注,這不是在投資,這叫賭博。

在納米比亞(Namibia)的旅行途中,我買了一顆鑽石送給妳們的母親,店家說這顆鑽石值7萬美元,我殺價殺到500美元。(才看了這顆鑽石一眼,妳們母親就宣稱我被坑了。)後來,我在坦尚尼亞(Tanzania)把這顆鑽石秀給一位鑽石商人看,他大笑,因為那不是顆鑽石,而是玻璃珠!我當然知道鑽石的價值,但是我所知道的也就只有這樣。我不能分辨真的和假的鑽石,所以我會上當。我一直告訴人家只能投資在你懂的東西上,自己卻在鑽石上栽了個大跟頭。

假如妳們想成功,一定得知道自己在做什麼。如果你連如何區辨一顆鑽石的真假都做不到,最後你手上握有的,會和我一樣,就只是一顆玻璃珠。現在回頭看,我很高興這顆昂貴的玻璃珠不是真的鑽石,它提醒我遠離自己未能完全瞭解的事情,這個教訓真是太便宜了。

第三封信:走出去看這個世界

不要只是做個觀光客--妳們要去到不同的人居住的環境,親眼見識他們怎麼生活,跟他們一樣的過日子。從地平線開始,往上看這個世界。

盡可能的旅行並觀看這個世界,會讓妳們的視野擴大好幾倍。假如你真想認識你自己和你的國家,出去看看這個世界。藉由與別的國家和住在那裡的人做比較,你將會學到如何從完全不同的角度看待你的國家和你自己。

妳們的父親可以很有信心的說這句話,因為我已經環遊世界兩次。從1990年起,我花了22個月,騎摩托車遊歷六大洲。第二次環遊世界是在1999年,我與妳們的母親花了3年時間,共同駕駛一輛特別訂製的賓士車,行遍116個不同的國家,總共走了二十四萬五千公里路。

我們親眼見到這些國家的不同人文景觀,在旅程中,我們敞開胸襟,嘗試所有新奇的東西。我們第一次吃活生生的蛇做的晚餐,廚師在我們的面前宰殺、烹飪,我愛極了。我們開車穿越戰區,總是去城市中「最可怕的」地區看它是不是真的那麼可怕。我們發現全世界的人本質上都一樣,不論膚色、種族、語言、宗教、飲食和衣著,我們發現完全沒有任何理由懼怕外國人或「跟自己不一樣的人」。

當看過廣闊的世界後,你對自己及你的國家理解會更深入。接觸到不同的人、體驗過不同的世界後,你對自己會有更多的認識。你會發現你從來不曾注意的興趣,從而知道你的長處和短處;你也會發現你過去認為很重要的事,其實並沒有那麼了不起。

當我在牛津念哲學時,我學得並不好,因為他們老是問我問題,一些非常簡單的問題,如太陽從東方昇起,或是在沒人的森林一棵樹倒下時是否會發出聲音。當時我看不出這些問題的意義,但是後來我發現有必要檢視每一個命題,不論它已被多少人接受或證明過。這個尋找其他可能的解釋、思考得更深遠的能力,將來會對妳們很有用。

我要妳們研讀歷史,從宏觀的角度觀看世界發生什麼事。妳們會發現今日為真的事,十年、二十年以後並非如此。在一九一○年,英國和德國的皇室是最親密的朋友和盟邦;四年以後,兩國交戰,前所未有的激烈。無論從任何角度檢視世界,你會發現十年、二十年以後,每一件事都改變了。

對歷史、政治和經濟的興趣,將幫助妳們觀察到,發生在一個國家的重大事件如何影響到其他國家。一個國家所發生的大事不只影響到華爾街,也會對全球原物料和股票價格、甚至整個世界造成影響。歷史一再告訴我們,戰爭和政治的不穩定可以使原物料的價格上揚,金價也絕對會隨之上升。一場大規模的戰爭不但會驅使金價上揚,幾乎所有的原物料也會跟著騰貴。

在妳們到海外旅行之前,我要妳們研讀目的地國家的歷史。沒有歷史的背景知識,你不可能對觀察到的事物有太多瞭解。你當然可以做個觀光客,欣賞不同的景點,但是幾個月以後,這樣的你,是不會記得去過哪個地方、又看到些什麼的。那有多可惜啊!

這正是為什麼我鼓勵妳們先讀歷史,再去看世界。

我要再一次叮嚀妳們,好好的研究歷史,學習世界歷史上什麼事真的發生了、什麼沒發生,這會幫助妳們瞭解,在世界的各個角落什麼事將要發生。

要在投資上成功,除了哲學和歷史,妳們需要學習心理學。情緒會驅使股票市場走向某一個方向。當大眾對某則新聞過度反應時,他們要不然是高價買入,要不然就是在不對的時機賣空。很多時候,投資者的心理會加速市場的走向。

每個人都會驚慌,我自己也驚慌過好幾次,在股市賠了很多錢。在1980年石油危機後,我已經做過研究,確信石油供過於求,然而,石油的價格繼續攀高。油價肯定很快會下跌,所以我就賣空。不久之後,兩伊戰爭爆發,由於全世界都在擔心石油短缺,石油的價格開始狂飆。

我必須承認這是個錯誤的判斷。有人安慰我只是運氣不好,但那是不正確的。有些人已經知道戰爭迫在眉睫,龐大的軍事行動已經展開,宣傳機已經啟動,而我卻沒有做好功課。就像個剛出道的生手一樣,我急忙買回我賠本賣空的部位,然後在一個高一點的價格時賣出。雖然石油價格真的像我原先預期的下跌了,卻是在它繼續飆升到高點後才掉下來──那時已經太遲,我早就出清我的部位了。

如果妳們在市場驚慌的迷霧中喪失自己的看法,那就等於在市場上失去金錢。當妳們瞭解心理學後,對自己會有更深的認識。

把妳們倆扶養長大成人是我一生中最大的探險。我對可以教妳們什麼興奮得不得了,我有好多心得想要告訴妳們……

我父親教我的一切,我很希望把它再傳給妳們。我知道把妳們倆扶養長大成人是我一生中最大的探險。樂樂(羅傑斯大女兒,英文名Happy),當妳仍在妳母親的肚子裡時,我已經替妳準備好一張世界地圖及一具地球儀,還有一個小豬撲滿。當然,我也會替碧兒(羅傑斯二女兒,英文名Beelander、暱稱Bee)準備好。

我對可以教妳們什麼興奮得不得了,我有好多心得想要告訴妳們,或許我沒辦法全部都說完,但是我確信我可以教妳們很多東西。我可以教妳們投資,教妳們如何愛別人,教妳們努力去達成妳們的夢想,在妳們一生中實現它們。我也會與妳們分享我從我父親那裡學來的一切,我希望有一天,妳們也會與妳們的孩子分享這一切。

Fed rate cuts went too far

THE Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in response to the US financial market crisis of the past year is a bad mistake that will lead to higher inflation, a former Bank of England official said on Saturday.
In a paper presented at the Federal Reserve's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the London School of Economics professor Willem Buiter, comes down hard on the Fed for misjudging the effects of the US housing market slump.

'The Fed over-reacted to the slowdown in economic activity,' Mr Buiter writes. 'It cut the official policy rate too fast and too far and risked its reputation for being serious about inflation.'

'The official policy rate is a rather ineffective tool for addressing liquidity and solvency issues,' he adds.

As rising default rates on home mortgages and falling house prices in the US housing market impacted the value of financial assets worldwide in the past year, the Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate down to from 5.25 per cent last summer to the current 2.0 per cent, and has held them steady at the past two policy meetings.

Mr Buiter agrees with the general consensus at the Fed, which is only now beginning to be questioned, that asset price bubbles cannot be adequately dealt with through monetary policy.

However, Mr Buiter writes that proper regulation might have done what the federal funds rate cannot. By sitting idly by while investment banks and hedge funds were taking wild risks in financial markets, the Fed itself holds some responsibility for the developments of the past year, the author argues.

'I do not agree that the best that can be done is for the authorities to clean up the mess after the bubble bursts,' says Mr Buiter.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England do not entirely escape Buiter's sharp critique. He praises them for resisting pressure to push interest rates lower, but says they too have threatened the independence of central banks by erring on the side of doing too much.

'All three have allowed themselves to be used as quasi-fiscal agents of the state, providing subsidies to banks and other highly leveraged institutions,' Mr Buiter says.

The implications of these actions are far reaching, the author says, and will be felt in the form of inflation pressures that are already showing up prominently in the latest data releases.

US consumer prices jumped 5.6 per cent in the year to July, the highest reading since the early 1990s.

Against that backdrop, the central bank's credibility has already been tarnished, according to Mr Buiter.

'The Fed's reputation for maintaining price stability has been severely dented,' he said in an e-mail interview.

Another key error on the central bank's part was to overestimate the role of falling prices on overall economic activity, and to give too much credit to the productive use of purely financial businesses.

'Much of it is privately profitable but socially wasteful churning, driven by regulatory arbitrage and tax efficiency considerations,' concludes Mr Buiter.

小心非理性悲觀

8月22日,周五。滬深三百指數跌1.6%,收2404.93;兩市總成交539億元人民幣,較周四銳減30%。中國鐵建及興業銀行跌幅都超過4%,東航、國航、南航受油價上升影響,股價下調。媒體報道,「二次發售」細則仍在研究中,學界認為「二次發售」同大宗交易市場相類似,只係換湯不換藥,不能解決「大小非」解禁限售股套現嘅預期,對整個市場大大利淡。

工行純利三年倍增唔容易
工行董事長姜建清2005年上任,今年上半年工行獲利上升57%,達645億元人民幣,已超過滙控(005),成為全球最賺錢嘅銀行,認真了不起,上任三年已令工商銀行純利倍增(工行唔係銀行仔,咁大間銀行純利上升一倍並唔容易)。請記住,喺惡劣環境下吸納優質企業乃投資成功之道。中國加油!

日本央行22日公布7月份貨幣政策會議記錄顯示,日本經濟正面臨GDP增速放緩及通脹上升嘅雙重風險。今年第二季GDP較第一季下降0.6%,較去年同期下降2.4%;7月份CPI上升7.1%,創下1981年1月以來最大升幅。

花旗集團CEO到上海為當地花旗零售網點揭幕時表示,次按危機不但影響美國,而且更蔓延到全球。

英國第二季GDP同第一季比較維持不變,較去年第二季比較只升0.2%。CPI過去四個月平均升幅4.4%,超過政府目標2%一倍。英國經濟正式進入滯脹期(GDP停滯不前,CPI繼續上升)。

我老曹1967年剛喺社會做事,已發夢做百萬富翁。今天如果只有100萬元,存入銀行收1.5厘,即每日開支只有41元,點樣生活?1967年一盎斯黃金35美元,即今天嘅841美元;今天100萬元購買力只相等於1967年嘅41600元!呢個係幾得人驚嘅事實。

去年8月20日港股直通車傳聞,令恒生指數喺十星期內上升55%,然後再用十個月時間將上述升幅抹掉,我地又再重返恒指20000點水平。假設冇直通車傳聞,今天恒指合理水平就係20000點。上述傳聞令投資者出現非理性亢奮後,理論上亦會引發非理性悲觀,各位宜小心。

去年8月美國次按危機爆發,一年後今天次按危機不但未受控制,反而在擴散,今年8月客觀形勢較去年8月更差。面對房利美及房貸美股價大幅下跌,兩房作擔保嘅52000億美元房貸債券點樣處理?7月30日保爾森已獲國會授權可購買兩房所發嘅債券,去增強投資者對兩房嘅信心,估計短期內保爾森會運用此權力,協助兩房解決9月30日2000多億美元債券到期嘅問題,藉此逃避被接管嘅命運。美國大選之後,將由新總統決定兩房嘅命運。

奧巴馬開始提出佢競選總統嘅政綱。佢希望將資本增值稅由依家15%提升到28%;佢唔希望延長2001至03年殊仔嘅減稅方案(2010年到期),並取消10.2萬美元FICA收入上限,即年收入10.2萬美元嘅美國人日後要多付7%稅,以及取消殊仔嘅股息稅減免措施……。換言之,奧巴馬如上台及實施佢嘅政綱,未來四年美國政府稅收可增加8500億美元,再加上提升最低工資法案對中小企業嘅打擊……。美國老左派思想抬頭去改變貧富懸殊情況,絕對不利投資者。

自古至今有兩大想法:一、左傾者認為透過政府向富人抽稅、補貼窮人,去減少貧富懸殊(所謂不患寡而患不均);二、右傾者認為透過減稅、鼓勵投資,讓富人創造更多財富,財富多咗,人人分享到嗰份財富都增大咗,雖然貧富差距大咗,但窮人生活仍較以前好過。過去前者叫社會主義,後者叫資本主義,到今天已很難真正劃分。前者着重公平分配,後者着重創造財富。

隨着全球20/80兩極化,世界思潮似乎重返公平分配嘅機會愈來愈大。

1990年9月11日老殊出兵中東,將伊拉克軍隊從科威特境內趕走時喺國會發表演說。佢強調一個「新世界」正在誕生——“A world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respects the rights of the weak!我老曹喺電視機前曾為佢呢篇演詞鼓掌!上述正是中國人嘅尚武精神。「武」者「止戈」也,打仗目的就係為咗停止戰爭;執行「法治」、對抗「森林法則」、阻止弱肉強食。打仗目的就係為咗自由與公義,令強者尊重弱者嘅權利。

全人類重回森林法則時代
可惜2001年「九.一一慘劇」之後,殊仔派兵入侵阿富汗、攻打伊拉克,完全違背上述精神。今天俄羅斯亦以強凌弱,世界再次重返「森林法則」時代。2001年9月11日拉登炸毀嘅唔係美國人嘅Twin Tower,而係美國人「為自由而戰、為公義而戰、為阻止強者欺負弱者而戰」嘅信念。今年8月嘅俄羅斯只係步美國政府嘅後塵,以壓倒性軍力入侵格魯吉亞,將全人類重新推回森林法則時代——即強者為王。

1978年由鄧小平開始改革開放政策,加上鐵娘子及列根領導下,全球開創咗New World Order,所有國家都參與(少數例外係北韓及古巴),共建一個自由及公義世界,呢個世界係奉行法治而非強者為王)。但呢個環境只維持二十年光景;踏入二十一世紀拉登有如《黑夜之神》戲中嘅小丑,炸毀咗美國嘅信念,令美國呢個自以為是蝙蝠俠露出人性弱點,以壓倒性軍力攻打阿富汗同伊拉克報復。到今年8月俄羅斯又向全球顯示強者為王嘅森林法則,甚至北約、美國都莫奈之何。

1978至2001年9月係人類歷史上短暫嘅光輝,抑或2001年9月至2008年8月係舊世界嘅反擊戰?未來世界到底係自由與公義嘅法治,抑或係強者為王嘅森林法則時代?我老曹實在木宰羊。但金價2001年9月開始復甦,今年8月進入上升第二波還是技術反彈?倫敦ETF上周持金量回升到一百八十萬盎斯,代表金價一旦低於800美元一盎斯便見需求回升。我老曹建議大家可逢低吸納,但見高莫追(金價上升反映人類對未來嘅恐懼,加上巴基斯坦家吓嘅局勢,可能再次觸發印度人買金)。

紐約大學經濟系教授Nouriel Roubini認為,美國樓市正進一步惡化,最終可令美國過萬間地區性銀行其中三分一(超過三千間)出事,因為仍有1萬億美元呆壞賬仍未曝光。美國銀行响今年7月份共接管七萬七千二百九十五間住宅,較2005年1月增加184%(2005年1月係美國最少住宅被接管嘅月份)。住宅銷售更跌至十年新低,依家樓價較去年7月再跌7.6%,由223500美元跌至206500美元;銀行次按撥備已達5100億美元。哈佛大學教授估計,將有一間大型美國銀行喺短期內倒閉。

1992至2007年美國CPI平均升幅2.6%,今年7月升幅5.6%;PPI升幅更達9.8%,估計8月CPI仍進一步上升。7月份失業率5.7%係四年新高。去年第四季GDP出現負增長,估計今年第四季及明年第一季GDP亦係負增長,即係官式衰退。有人告訴我老曹,如果佢行路似隻鴨、叫聲似隻鴨,咁佢應該係隻鴨,唔使「官方」公布!對投資者而言,衰退早喺2007年11月開始,只係等官方承認而已。

任何事物皆相對性
牛市充滿樂觀,熊市充滿憂愁,此乃無可改變嘅現實。當年阿虫請食飯,共同研究點樣振興香港經濟,席間我老曹曾話「港人有咁耐風流,有咁耐折墮!」點知阿虫响公開場合亦口沒遮攔,結果畀市民臭罵。我老曹從此唔敢再講呢句話。

只係任何事物皆為相對性而非絕對性,1997至2003年嘅憂愁,帶嚟2003到07年嘅歡樂,2007年11月又開始哀愁嘅日子。

今天已冇人同我老曹爭拗係咪熊市,大部分人都認同香港股市已進入一個Secular bear market,雖然有反彈卻冇上升。响熊市中賺錢如逆水行舟,我老曹一向主張响熊市中宜持盈保泰,至於博反彈最好留畀專家,如自己技癢,最多只動用全部資金30%。

跌穿前低點唔代表熊三來臨
美股由7月15日至8月11日嘅夏日戀情結束(香港嘅夏日戀情更短,只有一星期,7月15日開始,7月22日已結束)。隨之而嚟嘅係三次打風,吹到本港投資者人仰馬翻。至於金屬及能源超級牛市係咪已喺今年3月及7月結束,抑或維持十三年,有待下回分解,今年港股贏家係嗰D肯Sell in May and go away者。熊市第一期由2007年10月30日31958點開始至2008年3月18日20572點結束,跌幅35.62%。熊市二期中最大一次反彈係5月5日26387點,然後進入漫長熊市二期下跌浪(一浪低於一浪)。最近跌穿3月18日低點20572點,唔代表熊三來臨,只代表熊市二期浪頂係5月5日26387點,响可見將來恒指再無法升穿26387點。熊市二期變幻莫測,除咗出現最大一次反彈(3月18日至5月5日)有一定可預測性外,其餘波浪再無法預測了。呢段日子,我老曹通常行使「忍」字訣。

美國由1982到2007年長達二十五年嘅財富創造期係咪到咗告別篇,一如1997年7月香港?當年我老曹撫心自問,過去三十年由只有5000元身家嘅窮小子變成今天嘅小富,到底係自己努力嘅成果,還是時勢造英雄?當年我老曹曾提出「黃金三十年」論,但有幾多人聽得入耳(不然亦唔會有咁多家庭陷入負資產嘅深淵)。我老曹認為,「三分努力、七分天意」,1968年如非誤打瞎撞入咗股票呢個行業,又如非父親早死令自己陷入少年窮,1967年可能已去咗加拿大讀大學。1969年如非自己冇錢拍拖希望寫稿賺外快,便唔會認識山木兄…。1997年如非面對人生交叉點,而作出投資倫敦嘅決定,便逃唔過一劫,2000年又何來資金投資黃金、資源股及其他?2007年9月面對港股直通車嘅消息又再出現困惑,四大銀行點解只有中國銀行有份?全國咁多大城市點解只係天津?中央政府點樣控制內地資金淨流出?港股直通車壓力下,A股豈不是將大跌?再加上美國次按危機爆發,我老曹便決定「三七」分(即70%改揸現金,只留30%股票)。到底係另一次幸運抑或係分析時勢嘅眼光?我老曹亦搞唔清楚。今天嘅擔憂(二十五年美國財富創造期結束),係咪杞人憂天?

成為「策略投資者」
1997年起我老曹已放棄價值投資法(Value Investing),理由係咁多大行研究,自己仲有乜真知灼見?因此唔再相信Buy and hold策略。其後漸漸相信動力投資法(Momentum Investing),背後理念係相對強勢(Relative Strength)便擇肥而食。當金價跑贏股市、當資源股跑贏大市時,只買強勢項目(外國叫牛眼投資法)。2006年6月起內地A股轉弱為強,便投資紅籌、國企;2007年10月內地A股轉強為弱,便放棄紅籌、國企。賺快錢唔賺慢錢,賺大錢唔賺小錢(Fast and big, not slow and small),賺錢速度太慢及太小,寧可唔賺。賺快錢及賺大錢嘅力量來自知識與分析,when to buy, what to buy, How much to risk, when to sell.(何時買入、買什麼、風險多大、何時沽出。)如今我老曹已成為「策略投資者」。

Friday, August 22, 2008

Buffett sees economy weak into '09

Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy is unlikely to improve before 2009, and there was a "reasonable chance" that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders would be wiped out though the companies themselves are too big to fail.

Speaking on Friday on CNBC television, Buffett, the billionaire investor, said some businesses in his Berkshire Hathaway Inc insurance and investment conglomerate are struggling as the economy suffers from past excess in making credit available.

"You always find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out. We found out that Wall Street has been kind of a nudist beach," said Buffett, who was called the world's richest person by Forbes magazine.

Referring to credit deterioration, Buffett said, "Right now the situation is still getting worse, and I would say that I don't see any early end to that."

He also said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke "does not have any magic wand" to bolster an economy facing weak growth and mounting inflation. "In my judgment it won't be any better five months from now," he said.

Buffett said he is supporting Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in November's U.S. presidential election, but admires Republican rival John McCain.

"President Obama is going to have plenty on his plate in January," Buffett said.

STOCKS ATTRACTIVE
Buffett said U.S. stocks are broadly "more attractive" than they were a year ago, adding that Berkshire has no currency bets against the U.S. dollar.

The Omaha, Nebraska-based company bought $3.98 billion of stock in other companies in the second quarter.

Buffett spoke on CNBC in connection with the national roll-out of the documentary "I.O.U.S.A.," which argues that the nation might face an economic disaster if it doesn't come to grips with its mounting debt levels.

Buffett is interviewed in the movie.

Since 1965, Buffett has transformed Berkshire from a failing textile company into a $180 billion conglomerate with about 76 businesses that sell a range of products from bricks, carpeting, manufactured housing and paint to ice cream and underwear.

FANNIE, FREDDIE "TOO BIG TO FAIL"
"What we're seeing in business, in our retail businesses, or anything having to do with housing, is even a further slowing down in June and July, both in terms of credit experience where people first got in trouble with house payments, and now credit card payments," Buffett said.

Berkshire also invests in blue-chip companies like American Express Co and Wells Fargo & Co. Buffett said he has invested more in one of these companies in recent months, but did not say which one.

Fannie and Freddie shares have plummeted as speculation grows about a government bailout of the companies, which own or guarantee almost one-half of U.S. mortgages. Shares of both have fallen more than 90 percent in the last year.

"They're too big to fail," Buffett said. "That doesn't mean that the equity can't get wiped out, and it almost has. In a practical sense, as institutions, they don't have any net worth."

Buffett forecast that "you'll see some action fairly soon" to support the companies, but that he has not been approached to assist in any bailout. He said "nothing is going to happen" to investors in the companies' insured mortgages or debt, but "the equity and preferred stock is another question."

Buffett also said he made a mistake selling 61 percent of Berkshire's stake in Anheuser-Busch Cos for about $61 to $62 per share, ahead of the U.S. brewer's July agreement to be taken over by Belgium's InBev NV for $70 per share.

"It was about valuation and whether I thought the deal would go through," Buffett said. "In retrospect, I was wrong to decide to partially sell."

聯儲局出術幫美股

2006年8月保爾森同布殊會面,力陳場外交易衍生工具遲早影響成個美國經濟。
其後布殊請佢做財長,聯同證監會、期交監管機構及聯儲局去諗辦法阻止呢樣嘢出現,但已經太遲。次按危機喺去年8月出現後一直喺度惡化;今年7月11日房利美及房貸美股價已較高位回落75%,保爾森立即同總統開會,喺7月13日宣布周一開始禁止「裸空」。政府利用拋空者平倉支持股市上升去購買時間;美股果然由7月15日起至8月11日上升,但對兩房股價幫助唔大。股價由7月11日低位反彈後,近日又再急跌;雖然保爾森一再強調兩房唔使被接管,但最後結果會係點?

保爾森救唔救到火?
保爾森為咗做財長,賣咗所持嘅三百二十三萬股高盛收番5億美元而獲免稅優惠(上述法例嘅目的係吸引有錢人出任公職),其後再賣埋高盛基金,再收番2500萬美元。佢喺任內成功游說中國加快人民幣升值。最終決定佢做財長成敗仲係房利美及房貸美係咪可以逃過被政府接管嘅命運?今年9月30日更係重要時刻,佢可唔可以喺四十日內諗出妥善方法?你問我,我問邊個。保森爾雖然係最佳救火隊長,但次按危機呢場火可唔可以撲熄定係愈燒愈旺冇得救?非我等平凡之輩今天能預知。


喺長實業績公布時有記者問李實發,次按危機幾時完?佢冇答呢個問題,次按危機要結束後我地先知佢完咗,但有D名人名句值得思考。

去年8月次按危機出現時,索羅斯曾說:“The growth of securitization has truly altered the global economy. One negative consequence is that financial markets are starting to shape the destiny of the real economy, not the other way around.佢即係話債務證券化徹底改變咗全球經濟,依家負面因素係金融市場開始塑造真實經濟而唔係服務真實經濟。家吓真實經濟已被金融市場牽住鼻子走而唔係反映投資者對前景展望。近期索羅斯又點睇,佢喺7月時話:“Credit conditions have been relaxed to such an extent that I wonder how they could be relaxed any further.意思係1982至2007年信貸市場咁寬鬆,佢感到疑慮因為呢個市場到底可以再寬鬆幾多?

索羅斯認為1982年至去年世界經濟繁榮建基喺信貸逐步寬鬆,依家已咁寬鬆,未來點進一步寬鬆?如果信貸唔可以再寬鬆落去,經濟點樣可以再增長落去?

今年起我地面對嘅係一個過度發展(overdevelop)環境,進入一個需求不足(Under demand)嘅社會。前景展望好似2006年美林分析員David Rosenberg話齋,樓市見頂時所寫The Elusive Bottom(唔知個底喺邊)時段,超過五年過度建造(2003至去年),每年二百萬個單位而唔係過去平均每年一百四十五萬個後,嗰底喺邊?過去美國每二十五年樓價先升一倍,2002到06年五年內美國樓價卻升咗125%。你信唔信明年第一季樓價便可見底?格蛇請勿胡言亂語。近日CDO市值有如斷線紙鳶,歐美經濟正陷入九十年代日本嘅情況。即次按先行,然後係樓按(樓價跌幅大於20%),然後係整個金融體系;唔好以為問題止於次按(Sub prime),JP摩根CEO Jamie Dimon認為「Prime looks terrible!」,今天連主按亦好恐怖。

美國證監會希望再用停止「裸空」去阻止美股下跌。唔好意思證監先生,空倉客已喺7月15日至8月13日完成平倉;再立例停止「裸空」,因為市場內已極少人「裸空」唔可以再挾空倉了。I. O. U. S. A.本周四喺美國四百個大城市同時上演,由畢非德、Pete Peterson、Dave Walker、William Nickanen及Bill Novelli等喺影片中話畀美國人知,家吓美國經濟情況係點壞,佢地必需醒醒,唔好再醉生夢死,以為借錢消費可以發達。


格羅斯(美國債券大王)管理1300億美元資產嘅Total Return Fund擔心受樓市影響下,美國今年第四季及明年第一季GDP出現負增長(即係確認衰退)。

唔識就唔好投資
好多人以為富貴險中求。五十年代後期至1969年呢十三年內,股聖畢非德同別人合作投資,平均每年增值30%。到1969年因為再搵唔到值得投資嘅項目,所以決定結束呢個partnership而將D錢分咗。佢自己分到2500萬美元,之後收購一間上市紡織廠巴郡再將佢變成自己嘅旗艦。股聖一生投資嘅格言係Selling risk and complexity, buying caution and Simplicity。佢從來唔從事高風險及複雜嘅投資項目,只係小心謹慎咁揀項目,愈簡單愈好。

有人問股聖咩嘢係風險?佢嘅回答係風險就係做緊D自己都唔識嘅嘢(Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!)。去年嘅Accumulator文件一大疊,我老曹曾花咗兩個鐘都睇唔明(可能我老曹知識水平差),所以決定唔玩,部分朋友卻唔睇就簽個名落去;今年佢地話畀我老曹知蝕咗過千萬元(部分蝕得仲勁),問我老曹有冇方法解救?我老曹連Accumulator係乜都唔識又點有資格教人!

投資唔係冒風險而係小心謹慎;複雜項目如果自己都唔識就唔好玩,因為賺錢其實好簡單。貪心同士刁拔只係一線之隔。點解你會做士刁拔嘅事?理由係貪心,世上冇真正士刁拔嘅人只有貪心嘅人。例如利用過度槓桿希望一朝發達或過度借貸希望maximization returns者。不過,去年10月開始全球去槓桿化及減少借貸,令衍生市場成交額下降,大金融機構唔夠營業額;去年10月起我地已由貪心嘅年代進入小心嘅年代。

通脹將見頂
油價由7月份回落25%;金價由3月份1032美元回落超過20%。相信可見嘅將來通脹率將見頂,我地面對嘅世界,將唔係滯漲而係GDP停滯不前。唔係商品價格提高而係滯銷;PNC Financial Services首席經濟學家Stuart Hoffman認為,今年7月份美國CPI好差,但距離見頂嘅日子唔遠!兩房救援問題、雷曼兄弟及其他金融機構財政狀況則好令人擔憂。喺房市泡沫爆破及次按危機下,未來經濟唔係滯脹而係停滯不前。我老曹愈嚟愈擔心歐美進入九十年代嘅日式經濟。

功效已見底
美國企業40%純利嚟自美國以外嘅地區,利率下降令美元滙價下跌,令40%嚟自美國以外地區嘅純利因此上升多20%。令今年純利升幅唔係由20%降至10%,而係由20%降至14%(因來自海外地區純利因美元下跌而上升)。

換言之,當企業純利升幅下降,聯儲局透過減息令美元滙價回落;兩大因素可令股市唔跌(除非純利增長率唔係由20%降至10%,而出現負增長,先可令股市下跌。例如1974年美國企業純利下降40%,雖然利率大幅下降,但P/E仍由1973年十四倍回落到1974年12月六倍,因企業純利出現負增長,引至美股1974年大跌)。

去年9月至今年4月透過減息及美元滙價回落,令美股P/E只由去年二十二倍只下降到十五、十六倍。如明年經濟復甦企業純利升幅回升,更冇問題。點解今年5月起股市又再跌?因為擔心明年經濟同今年一樣,企業純利只上升10%。明年冇減息及美元滙價回落因素支持,美股P/E將由家吓十六倍下調到明年十倍嘅話,未來美股便有25%以上下跌空間。

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 - 七月份

今年7 月7 日,从事银行业48 年的大华银行主席黄祖耀公开说,目前的金融危机是他从事银行业48 年来最恶劣的。

你怕不怕?
是的,目前全球金融危机的确到了极度恶劣的情况,严重的通货膨胀与经济衰退问题一起来。
黄祖耀的48 年经验,即表示从1960 年开始所发生的大大小小金融风暴,都比不上这一次凶险,这包括1973 年股市大崩溃、1987 年全球大股灾、1997 年金融风暴、2003 年非典型肺炎……上述的金融风暴,都被描述为巨大的风暴,但是,在黄祖耀眼中,这一次才是最大的危机。

为什么?
最重要的原因是第一,过去的大大小小金融风暴时,全球金融衍生工具没有今日如此盛行,规模如此大。但是,过去几年,金融业起革命,大量所谓的金融工程师投入服务,设计出一个又一个的新金融产品,高度复杂难明,导致不少有非常多年经验的银行家失手,买入一些表面上看起来风险不大但实际上风险巨大的金融产品,问题就如此开始。

在美国,紧接着次级房屋贷款问题之后,是一级的房屋贷款也出了问题。房价下跌、利率上升、失业率也上升,许多原本是合格的贷款也没钱还房屋的分期付款,房屋被银行没收拍卖,价格一跌再跌。最后,全美国最大的两家房地产贷款公司Fannie Mae与Freddie Mac出现财政困难。这两家企业的房地产贷款占有率全美国50%的市场,共发行5万亿美元的债券。5万亿美元是很惊人的数字。那是50 家淡马锡的总资产。单是中国政府已经持有其中的3000亿美元债券。如果这两家企业倒闭,5万亿美元的债券所将引起的全球金融混乱是非常惊人的。

这两家企业已经大到不能倒闭的规模,美国政府也决定出手救助,并公开说在最坏的情况下,美国政府会接管这两家企业,以保证他们所发行的债券不会变成废纸。

实际上,美国政府已经成立了一个简称为PPT(Plunge Protection Team)来救市,出尽九牛二虎之力,拨款3000 亿美元帮遇上财困的小业主还房屋分期付款,向市场再大量注入资金,限制无贷卖空……暂时而言,总算稳住股市。但是,上述方法只是治标不治本的方法,而且会是暂时性的措施,限制卖空有期限,能拖多久并不乐观。现在,唯一比较乐观的是石油价格有见顶回跌之势。如果油价能再下跌,舒缓通胀压力,则美国政府就可以全力扶持经济增长。

除了美国的问题外,所有新兴国家也面对股市泡沫爆破的危机,越南、南韩、印度、中国……现在,大家还是保守一点比较好。

Singapore's Temasek courts disaster

The bull market tide goes out, leaving the lion city's sovereign wealth firm gasping on the shore.
Nearly five months after its March 31 year-end, Singaporeans should be eagerly looking forward to the publication of the report of the guardian of so much of the national wealth, Temasek Holdings. The sovereign wealth fund run by Ho Ching, wife
of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, is not the biggest repository of money collected by the state on behalf of the people, but it is at least semi-transparent compared with its big brother the Government Investment Corp.

The lengthy wait for results could possibly be connected to issues of how to treat a series of rather spectacular disasters that Temasek faced last year, and that are continuing into the current year.

Even in 2006-07, when world markets were booming in unison, Temasek had to report a 29 percent profit fall. Neither chairman S. Dhanabalan nor Ho Ching were on hand at the press conference when these dismal results were delivered. So who will deliver any bad news for the latest year?

Of course, the bottom line for the year to March 2008 may be saved by the sale just before year-end of power station Tuas Power to China's Huaneng Group for S$4.2 billion which should enable it to book a hefty capital profit. But selling local assets and buying foreign ones may not be such a smart idea, particularly if you are the kind of Singapore bureaucrat who has implicit faith in the masters of the universe on Wall Street.

Under Ho Ching's leadership Temasek had supposedly been taken from being a safety-first bureaucracy to a smart, profit-oriented outfit, selling some assets and investing heavily overseas, particularly in the fast-growing emerging markets of Asia and Latin America. Almost fool can make money in a global bull market so for awhile Temasek seemed to prosper under Ho Ching's dynamic leadership. But Temasek also swallowed plenty of bait on offer from Wall Street types.

In particular the government-owned investment vehicle vastly expanded its finance sector portfolio, buying banks and even setting up a Special Purpose Vehicle, Astrea, which borrowed US$810 million to invest in a slew of private equity and buyout funds.

It is hard to imagine that Astrea has avoided the hammering suffered by almost all buyout and private equity funds, some of which have had to close with large losses.

But Temasek seems to have compounded bull market errors by continuing to have faith in Wall Street deceptions when memory of the Asian crisis and the Japanese experience should have made it particularly aware that financial-sector problems almost always go deeper and last longer than those in other sectors. Temasek was keen to show how important it was so was among the first to jump in with equity bail-outs for distressed western banks, firstly with US$5 billion for Merrill Lynch at $48a share.

The Merill shares are now worth about half that, and although under the terms of the deal Temasek has been partially compensated with additional shares it has had to also to put in new money – and must wonder just how long and deep the US financial crisis will be. Although it had recently increased its stake in the UK's Standard Chartered, it also put ₤1 billion into Britain's Barclays, a financial institution whose equity base remains perilously small compared with the weight of assorted instruments it carries and whose share price has fallen much further since the Temasek injection.

But it is not just the finance sector and in the west that gung-Ho Temasek has hit rough waters. The Shin Corp mess in Thailand may now be a thing of the past. But troubles elsewhere are many. In Indonesia it is being required to sell off its stake in Bank International Indonesia (BII) because it already owns Bank Danamon. But Malaysia's Bank Negara (central bank) has vetoed an attempt by Maybank to buy the BII stake. Bank Negara evidently agreed with opinion in the market that Maybank was offering a silly price.

The best piece of luck Temasek has had was actually evidence of its own willingness to pay top dollar. Only the myopic greed of shareholders in China Eastern Airlines and hopes of a counter offer from China National Aviation Corp thwarted a generous joint offer by Temasek and Singapore Airlines for a 24 percent stake in the Hong Kong-listed company at HK$3.8 a share. They now trade at HK$1.80.

Real estate is not looking too hot either. Last month CapitalLand (part of the Temasek group) had to promise to inject A$300 million into its ailing listed Australian 54 percent owned subsidiary Australand Property. Without a huge capital injection, deeply indebted Australand might have gone under.

Temasek has also leaped heavily into one of China's highest profile, and perhaps more vulnerable, property developers, Country Garden. When it went public in Hong Kong in April 2007, Country Garden was the second largest IPO in Hong Kong history, with Temasek joining local tycoons Lee Shau Kee and Robert Kuok as key investors. According to the mainland financial magazine Caijing, a subsequent S$800 million convertible bond issue in Singapore in February this year was made on terms which suggest the company is very stretched and badly needs to keep its share price from falling. It is now little more than half its initial price and down 75 percent from its peak.

Australia, once seen as a safe if unexciting location for Singapore cash, has also attracted top of the market deals from Singapore Power. Already well-established in Australia, it paid heavily in cash for the eastern Australia assets of pipeline company Alinta but with values in decline they have been unable now to flip them into their 51 percent owned local subsidiary SP Ausnet leaving SP meanwhile saddled with huge borrowings.

Even on home ground, things are looking sick for important parts of the Temasek empire. Chartered Semiconductor Industries has seen its shares fall more than 40 percent and its debt ratings have been cut so that its bond are no longer investment grade – otherwise known as junk status. Chartered has long been a state effort to make Singapore a semiconductor manufacturing leader but has never managed to keep up with the likes of Taiwan and Korea in technology and now also faces Chinese competition.

These various problems have not entirely dulled Temasek's appetite for acquisitions. Its associate Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) is bidding to buy Germany's Hapag-Lloyd just at a time when some commentators forecast huge problems looming for container lines. This time Temasek may be saved by German nationalism – Hamburg business is ganging up to keep it in local hands.

It remains to be seen who, if anyone, takes responsibility for Temasek's blunders. Last year it was chief investment officer Jimmy Phoon who found he had better things to do, as did Jackson Tai at DBS, Temasek's main banking investment, and the finance director of SembCorp who had landed the group with US$300 million in foreign exchange losses.

Meanwhile US former food and consumer products executive Simon Israel, appointed two years ago, remains CEO in conjunction with Ho Ching. And, despite everything, faith in Wall Street types is as strong as ever – Michael Dee from Morgan Stanley was last week been appointed managing director for international investments.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Nera Telecom:Lacks catalysts; HOLD S$0.35; Price Target : S$ 0.40 (Prev S$ 0.48)

Comment on Results
Net profit of S$3.1m down 4.8% y-o-y but up 16.9% q-o-q was towards the lower end of our expectations mainly due to lower turnover in the telecom business segment. There were project delays in Srilanka and Thailand, which combined with equipment delays from the new factory of Nera ASA in Slovakia resulted in postponement of about S$10m worth of revenues to 3Q08.
Management assured investors that they have good project pipeline for 2H08. With S$5.7m in net profit for 1H08, we believe that Nera is on track to meet our FY08 forecast of S$12m. Operating cash flow was quite healthy at S$4.0m higher than net profit for the period. Total cash stood at an impressive S$39.5m after paying out S$14.5m in dividends to the shareholders during 1Q08.

Recommendation
With broader market de-rating, we lower our target price to S$0.40 pegged at 12x FY08earnings (previously 15x FY08). With about 11 cents in cash, the share price is currently trading at reasonable excash PE of 7.2x FY08 earnings. While dividend yield of 8.6% is the key attraction of the stock, it is payable only once annually. We don’t see any major catalyst for the share price in the near term.
Maintain HOLD.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

股票没有贵和便宜之分,只买对的

"投资最怕的就是,你买的股票跌了一半的时候,你突然发现买错了."这是经常提醒我的一句话.

股票投资最关键的就是不能买错,为了不买错,那么就要在买之前对行业\企业\回报率等进行反复的计算,谁算的远,谁算的最贴近事实,那么谁的安全系数就最大.一个朋友讲了一句话:"真正对行业和企业了解深入的人,是无法在中途卖掉股票,也无法做波段的.""投资比的就是远见".

买对是很难的,是对一个人分析理解行业的特性,理解企业的运营的未来的变化的考验.很多的人在投资的生涯中,会变得越来越谨慎,买的条件会变得越来越苛刻,买的企业的数量也会越来越少,投资一个企业的比重会越来越高.

买的贵和便宜,只是一个相对的概念,只是对回报率的计算有差别.只要买的是对的就算短期买贵了,随着时间的推移,企业的增长自然会带来回报.买错了,那么就可能有麻烦了.未来的发展和变化是谁也不知道的,所以在买的时候就需要进行保守的估值,估值的回报率是购买价格的前提,一旦估算好了就可以考虑投资了.通常最简单的算法:全部买下这家企业划不划算,买下这家企业我在10年内能否收回本金.

摆在眼前的企业很多,如何挑选和甄别确实需要我们花很多时间去思考和琢磨,一旦时机成熟则不能犹豫.