最近几年随着股市的暴涨暴跌，投资界出现非常有趣的现象——股市行情就像一根指挥棒，指挥着人们思想观念、情绪和心态的变化。
一个很明显的例子，就是人们对巴菲特投资思想和价值投资的看法和信任度，也像过山车般变幻，从一个极端走向另一个极端，从沸点降到了冰点。股市善变、人心善变、人情冷暖，暴露无遗。张志雄先生说他对人性保持悲观的态度，是有他的道理的，特别是在股市，在华尔街。巴菲特对接班人的三条要求：独立思考、情绪稳定、对人性和机构的行为特点有敏锐的洞察力，条条都针对人性弱点。
人性弱点带来的心理误判或认知偏差，表现为两个极端：
一个极端是以偏概全，教条化理解巴菲特投资思想。把巴菲特的“低价买进少数杰出企业股票长期持有”的经典策略等同于巴菲特投资策略的全部，不管什么股票、什么价位都敢买进长期投资。最典型的口号是“死了也不卖。”
另一极端是矫枉过正，全面否定巴菲特投资策略和长期投资在中国的适用性。并不断有人冒出来要“还原巴菲特的真相”，宣称“巴菲特神话的破灭”。
第一部分 全面理解巴菲特投资思想
一、巴菲特的投资思想是一个不断进化的投资系统
回顾巴菲特的成长历程，你会发现，巴菲特的投资思想呈现了非常清晰的阶段进化的轨迹。
对巴菲特投资思想发展阶段的划分，一般都是合伙公司阶段为早期，控股伯克希尔后至八十年末为中期，九十年代后至今为后期。其划分方法是根据公司的组织形式和经营模式，有一定道理，但严格从他个人投资思想的进化脉络来看不够准确。我个人的意见是这样划分的：
第一阶段（早期） 1949-1971年（19-41岁）从年代看主要集中在五六十年代 。
投资风格是格雷厄姆式的安全边际法，被后人称为“价值投资法”，巴菲特自己则戏称为只买便宜货的“雪茄烟蒂”投资法。
1949年，巴菲特19岁那年，第一次阅读格雷厄姆的经典著作《智慧投资者》（国内翻译成《聪明的投资者》），立即被这本书迷住了。巴菲特的室友伍德说“它对巴菲特而言就像找到了上帝所在。”把这一年作为巴菲特投资思想形成早期的开端是完全有道理的。1970年7月17日，巴菲特在和格雷厄姆的通信中写道“在此之前，我一直是靠腺体而不是靠大脑进行投资。”巴菲特本人甚至把这次经历比作“保罗走在通往大马士革的路上”，并且他从中学到了“以40美分买1美元”的哲学。从此，“安全边际”的哲学成为巴菲特投资思想的基石。
在这之后发生的几件事，对巴菲特的进化都起到重要的推动作用：1950年（20岁）巴菲特在哥伦比亚大学研究生院正式“拜格雷厄姆为师”；1954（24岁）年巴菲特加盟格雷厄姆——纽曼公司，为格雷厄姆工作；1956年（26岁）成立第一家合伙公司，开始创业；1959年和芒格开始相识相知，并在60年代开展了一系列的合作；1962年巴菲特开始买入伯克希尔的股票，1963年成为最大股东，并于1965（35岁）年巴菲特正式接管伯克希尔；1967年（37岁）巴菲特以860万美元的价格为伯克希尔购买了国民补偿金公司，第一次踏入保险业；1969年（39岁），巴菲特解散了他的合伙企业，专心经营伯克希尔。
在合伙企业经营期间，巴菲特投资方法按特性先是分为三类，后来发展为四类。巴菲特在1962年1月份写给合伙人的报告中将自己的投资方法分为三类：
第一类投：Generals（低估类投资）。是指那些价值被低估的股票。投资比例最大。
第二类投资：workouts（套利类投资）。这类投资的价格更多取决于公司的经营管理决策而非买卖双方的供求关系。影响投资价格的公司行为包括合并、清算、重组、分立等。与道琼斯指数的表现无关。
第三类投资：Control控制类投资。是指要么控制了这家公司，要么买入了相当多的股份，从而可以影响公司的经营管理决策。这类投资也与道琼斯指数的表现没什么关系。
第一类和第三类可以互相转化。如果买入的“Generals”的价格长期在低点徘徊，巴菲特就会考虑买进更多的股份，从而演变成“Control”；反之，如果“Control”的价格在购入几年内迅速攀升，巴菲特通常考虑在高点获利了结，从而完成一次漂亮的“Generals”类投资。
巴菲特在1965年1月份写给合伙人的报告中，将原来的第一类投资Generals一分为二：Generals-Priavate Owner Basis和Generals-Relatively Undervalued
Generals-Priavate Owner Basis 这是一类被低估的股票，规模较小，缺乏魅力，无人问津。而且其价格远远低于这家公司对一个私人股权投资人的价值（内在价值）。价格长期低估的话，可以转化为Control.
Generals-Relatively Undervalued是指那些相对同类质地的公司的价格较低的股票。虽然价格低估，但通常规模较大，对私投资者意义不大，不能转化为Control.
早在1964年，巴菲特就注意到格雷厄姆买进廉价股的策略存在价值实现的问题，并不完美，而且随着股市的上涨这类投资机会越来越少。巴菲特在1965年1月的报告中增加的第四类投资Generals-Relatively Undervalued可视为一种新的探索。但尚处量变阶段，并没有完全突破格雷厄姆的投资框架。该类投资的最佳案例就是，1964年巴菲特利用“色拉油丑闻”将合伙公司40%的资金投入到美国运通中，并持股长达4年，在随后的5年时间里，美国运通的股票上涨了5倍。
正如芒格说的，在格雷厄姆手下工作的经历和巨额盈利让巴菲特的大脑一度阻塞，很难摆脱如此成功的思维方式。
1969年（39岁）巴菲特读到费舍的著作《普通股和不普通的利润》得到了很大的启发。而真正使巴菲特摆脱格雷厄姆思想束缚、完成进化的是查理·芒格。芒格对一家优势企业的价值有着敏锐的观察力，他使费舍的公司特质理论进一步具体化。“查理把我推向了另一个方向，而不是像格雷厄姆那样只建议购买便宜货，这是他思想的力量，他拓展了我的视野。我以非同寻常的速度从猩猩进化到人类，否则我会比现在贫穷得多。”
总而言之，遭遇到价值实现的问题，巴菲特才认清格雷厄姆“不论本质购买任何公司”的哲学的局限性，开始将费舍和芒格的杰出企业扩张价值理论整合进他的哲学中。
第二阶段（中期）1972-1989（42-59岁）。
1972年1月3日，巴菲特接受芒格的建议，用2500万美元收购了喜饴糖果公司，以此为开端，芒格就不断地推动着巴菲特向为质量付出代价的方向前进。随着喜饴公司的茁壮成长，巴菲特和芒格都意识到“购买一个好企业并让它自由发展要比购买一个亏损企业然后花费大量时间、精力和金钱去扶持它要容易且与快得多。”，这样的投资思想的形成标志着巴菲特“从猿进化成人”。巴菲特把格雷厄姆、费舍和芒格的思想结合起来，逐步形成自己的风格。这个进化阶段的划分，可以从巴菲特和芒格的原话得到佐证。 1997年，芒格在公司股东年会上说：“喜饴公司是我们第一次根据产品品质来收购的。”，巴菲特补充道：“如果我们没有收购喜饴公司，我们就不会购买可口可乐公司股票” 。
这个阶段巴菲特的投资方法的显著特点是，减少套利操作和廉价股票的投资，增加优秀业控制，并利用保险浮存金进行优质企业普通股的长期投资：
1、优秀企业的购并和永久持有：如喜饴公司、内部拉斯加家俱店
2、少数“必然如此”的伟大企业普通股的永久持有：如华盛顿邮报、盖可保险、可口可乐等；
3、部分“可能性高”的优秀企业普通股的长期投资。
4、中期固定收益证券
5、长期固定收益证券
6、现金等价物；
7、短期套利；
8、可转换优先股；
9、垃圾债券。
第一阶段巴菲特的投资思想和角色基本上是格雷厄姆式的“私募基金经理”；第二阶段，转型为企业家和投资家的双重角色的合二为一。他说“因为我把自己当成是个企业经营者，所以我成为更优秀的投资人；因为我把自己当成是投资人，所以我成为更优秀的企业经营者。”
这个阶段可以用巴菲特1985年的一席话来概括：“我现在要比20年前更愿意为好的行业和好的管理多支付一些钱。本倾向于单独地看统计数据。而我越来越看重的，是那些无形的东西。”
第三阶段（后期）1990至今（60岁以来）。即90年代以来。还可以有一种更加精确的划分方法——1995年（65岁）至今为巴菲特后期。有芒格的话为证：“过了65岁之后，沃伦的投资技巧真是百尺竿头，更进一步。”
进入90年代后，伯克希尔的未来遇到更大的困难，用芒格的话说：
1、我们的规模太大了，这将我们的投资选择限制在被那些常聪明的人所检验过的更具竞争力的领域。
2、当前的环境令未来15-20年内的普通股与我们在过去15-20年内看到的股票将有很大的不同。
简单地说，巴菲特面临两难境地：钱太多，机会太少。面对这样的挑战，随着巴菲特的持续学习和滚雪球的威力，巴菲特的投资思想进化到更高的层次，投资技艺更加全面、更加炉火纯青。
这个阶段巴菲特投资思想的进化表现在以下几个方面：
1、“护城河”概念的提出。标志着巴菲特评估企业长期竞争优势和内在价值的艺术更加成熟。1993年巴菲特在致股东信中首次提出了“护城河”概念。他说：“最近几年可乐和吉列剃须刀在全球的市场份额实际上还在增加。他们的品牌威力。他们的产品特性，以及销售实力，赋予他们一种巨大的竞争优势，在他们的经济堡垒周围形成了一条护城河。相比之下，一般的公司在没有这样的保护之下奋战。就像彼得·林奇说的那样，销售相似商品的公司的股票，应当贴上这样一条签：‘竞争有害健康。’”
1995年5月1日在伯克希尔的年度会议上，巴菲特对“护城河”的概念作了仔细的描述：“奇妙的、由很深、很危险的护城河环绕的城堡。城堡的主人是一个诚实而高雅的人。城堡最主要的力量源泉是主人天才的大脑；护城河永久地充当着那些试图袭击城堡的敌人的障碍；城堡内的主人制造黄金，但并不都据为己有。粗略地转译一下就是，我们喜欢的是那些具有控制地位的大公司，这些公司的特许权很难被复制，具有极大或者说永久的持续运作能力。”
2000年的股东大会上，巴菲特进一步解释说“我们根据‘护城河’、它加宽的能力以及不可攻击性作为判断一家伟大企业的主要标准。而且我们告诉企业的管理层，我们希望企业的护城河每年都能不断加宽。这并不是非要企业的利润要一年比一年多，因为有时做不到。然而，如果企业的‘护城河’每年不断地加宽，这家企业会经营得很好。”
2、投资战略的转变。一个转变：“由于伯克希尔的资产迅速膨胀，以及会明显影响我们业绩的投资空间急剧收缩，使得我们必须做出精明的决策。因此我们采用了一种仅需要几次精明——而不是过于精明——的战略，事实上，每年有一个好主意对我们来说就够了。”这意味着巴菲特采取更加集中持股的投资战略。
另一个转变：因为资本的体量越来越大，巴菲特的普通股投资更加专注于寻找在一个细分领域内价值低估的优秀或良好的大公司，实施选择性反向投资策略，即在一家具有持久竞争优势的大公司遭遇挫折、股价被目光短浅的市场压低时给以积极关注。这意味着格雷厄姆式的不论本质买便宜货的模式不再适合大块头伯克希尔了。
3、“挥棒”概念的发展。美国超级击球手威廉姆斯在所写的《打击科学》一书中解释了自己的击球技巧。它将击球区分成77个单元，每个单元代表一个棒球，只有当球处在最好的单元时（幸运区），他才会挥棒击球，即使这样做会面临三振出局的风险，因为处在最差位置的球将严重降低他的成功率。巴菲特将这一策略和投资作类比，发展了投资领域的“挥棒”概念。1995年巴菲特在对南加州大学商学院学生的演讲中，简述了这个概念：“在投资时，没有所谓的必须去击打的好球。你可以站在击球手的位置上，投球手可以投出好球；通用汽车投出47美元，你若缺乏足够的资讯来决定是否在47美元的价位买进，你可以让它从眼前流过，不会有人判给你一击。因为只有挥棒落空时，你才可能被判出局。”
4、三类业务的区分。巴菲特在2007年的致股东信中对伟大（卓越）、优秀和可憎三类业务做了传神划分。伟大的业务：拥有持久的“护城河”、回报率高而且不需要大量增加资本就可以实现利润增长的业务，如喜饴糖果公司；优秀的业务：拥有持久的竞争优势、回报率较高，但为实现增长而需要大量增加资本的业务，如飞行安全公司；可憎的业务：就是那些增长很快、为获得增长必须提供大量资金，而利润却有限或者没有产生利润的业务，如航空业。巴菲特通俗易懂地把这三类业务比喻为三种类型的“存款账户”——伟大的账户会支付非常高的利息，且利息会随着时间的推移而上升；优秀的账户会支付吸引人的利息，且只有当你增加存款的时候才能获得这些利息；最后一种是可憎的账户，它所提供的利息并不充分，且要求你不断增加资金以获得那些让人失望的回报。
5、跨国投资和收购的突破。巴菲特的首次跨国投资是1991年投资英国的酒精类饮料公司健力士；最有代表性的跨国投资则是2003年投资中石油近5亿美元；最有代表性的跨国收购则是2006年以40亿美元购买以色列伊斯卡尔金属制品公司80%的股份，这是巴菲特在美国以外进行的最大一笔投资交易，也是以色列历史上来自海外的最大一笔投资。
前几年巴菲特在韩国股市也实施了非常漂亮的跨国投资。他简单浏览了投行提供的投资手册，发现有些财务健全的公司，市盈率只有3倍，他就挑选了大约20只股票买进，等这些股票上涨五六倍、接近其内在价值时卖出。
6、非常规投资更加多样化。鼓鼓囊囊的钱包，迫使巴菲特在非常规投资又有了新的突破和发展。在1991年透过私募的方式投资了三亿美元的美国运通俗称"Percs"的股票，在投资的前三年可以领取一笔特别的股利，在1994年八月以前转换成普通股；1994-1995年建立了4570万桶仓位的石油的衍生合约；1997年购买了1.112亿盎司的白银；1997年购买了46亿美元以帐面摊销的长期美国零息债券；2002年首度进入外汇市场投资，截至2004年底总计持有214亿美元的外汇部位，投资组合遍布十二种外币；同时于同年涉足以欧元为单位垃圾债券市场，至06年总值达10亿美元；此外巴菲特还进行固定收入套利，并持有其他衍生品合约，这些合约可分为两大类：CreditDefaultSwaps (CDS，信用违约掉期合同)、卖出长期的股票指数看跌期权。
值得注意的是，放弃外汇的投资，收购海外公司，是巴菲特不愿持有太多美元资产及现金的最新投资策略。正如巴菲特指出，伯克希尔的主要基地仍在美国，但为了防范美汇继续下挫，收购海外优质企业，有一举两得之效。
总之，后期的巴菲特，思想更加开放，技术更加全面。在常规投资的选择技巧上更加炉火纯青，更加集中投资，而且开始加大了海外投资和购并的力度；在非常规投资上则更加多样化，更富进攻性。当专家学者把大师的经典策略总结成教条时，大师又进化了。
二、巴菲特的投资思想是一个开放式的投资系统
巴菲特投资思想是一个开放式的体系，不断博采众家之长，为我所用。不仅向其他投资流派、投资行家学习，而且向各个领域、各个学科的高手学习，在生命的每个细节中学习。这也是巴菲特投资思想得以不断进化的主要原因。
巴菲特说：“如果我只学习格雷厄姆一个人的思想，就不会像今天这么富有。”
芒格认为巴菲特的成功是多种因素合力的结果，但是具有决定性的因素是持续学习的结果。他在2007年威斯科年度股东大会上指出：“沃伦是这个世界上最佳的持续学习机器。乌龟最终战胜兔子是持续努力的结果，一旦你停止了学习，整个世界将从你身旁呼啸而过。沃伦很幸运，直到今天，即便是早已过了退休的年龄，他仍可以有效地学习，持续地改善其技巧。
沃伦的投资技巧在65岁后更是百尺竿头更上一层。作为一直从旁默默关注的我，可以肯定地说，如果沃伦停留在其早期的认识水平上，这个纪录也就不过如此了。”
让我们看看巴菲特从其他投资大师吸取了哪些营养：
1、格雷厄姆的三个基本思想观点：你应当把股票看作许多细小的商业部分。要把（市场）波动看作你的朋友而非敌人——利润有时来自对朋友的愚忠而非参与市场的波动。《聪明的投资人》的最后一章中，格雷厄姆道出了有关投资的最为重要的几个字眼：“安全边际。”
2、费舍的“只有最优异的企业经营与远景是唯一值得投资的商业价值”和“没有一个时间适合将最优秀企业脱手”的理论。
3、芒格的聚焦高品质企业投资和格栅理论；
4、彭博的“消费独占企业”是最佳投资价值的理论；
5、威廉姆斯的投资价值理论：今天任何股票、债券或公司的价值，取决于在资产的整个剩余使用寿命期间预期能够产生的、以适当的利率贴现的现金流入和流出。
6、凯恩斯的集中投资理论和“我宁愿模糊地正确，而不是精确地错误。”的思想；
7、史密斯的保留盈余是企业的附加价值思想。
8、彼得林奇的过早卖出表现良好的杰出公司股份是“拔苗助长”以及在公司表现良好时忙于抛售股票，兑现盈利，却死抱着令人失望的公司的人是在“铲除鲜花，浇灌杂草”的思想。
此外，巴菲特还从威廉姆斯的击球技巧，发展了投资领域的“挥棒”概念，他说：“我的工作就是等待轻松击球的机会。”；从韦恩·格兰斯基的忠告“到冰球要去的地方，而不是它现在呆的地方。”体会到专注于当期收益和短期收益是愚蠢的； 从伊索寓言中学到了“一鸟在手胜过二鸟在林”的灌木丛理论，甚至从一个球童的成功故事发展了“与赢家共事”的经营哲学和投资哲学。
《李小龙传奇》里咏春拳掌门人叶大师教导李小龙说：“习武的关键在于习心。只有心智敏锐才能从万事万物中参悟武道。”
同样，理财的关键也在于理心。只有心智敏锐才能从万事万物中参悟股道。巴菲特博览群书、广泛学习，芒格的思维格栅理论都是同样道理。
我在看北京奥运会的比赛，甚至在洗奶瓶中都悟到了“双保险”是最佳风险防御的策略。
我在听威尔弟歌剧《女人善变》，得到启发：股市善变，就像天空飘浮的羽毛，如果谁不经意将命运托付给她，谁将是个可怜虫。
我在听马晓晖的二胡演奏，体悟到：巴菲特就是一位“二胡大师”，他用护城河和安全边际这两根弦演奏出丰富多彩、无以伦比的动人乐章。
日本德川时代的兵法大师宫本武藏57岁时写成《五轮书》，其中提出了兵法家的基本原则，其中有一条是：务必体认千行百业之要谛。表面看，作为兵法家、剑术家，千行百业之要谛和你有何关系？实际上和我们从万事万物、各行各业中参悟股道是完全一致的。
所以我们务必永远保持谦卑，敞开胸怀，海纳百川，持续学习，思维格栅，不断丰富、完善自己的投资体系，让自己处在不断的进化状态中，永不停息。
三、巴菲特的投资方法可划分为常规投资和非常规投资两大部分
为了便于全面理解巴菲特的投资方法，避免大家把巴菲特的经典投资策略等同于巴菲特投资策略的全部，可以把巴菲特的投资方法划分为常规投资和非常规投资或者传统投资和非传统投资两部分。
下面根据巴菲特后期的投资思想进行划分：
（一）常规投资
1、优秀企业的购并和永久持有；
2、少数“必然如此”的伟大企业普通股的永久持有；
3、部分“可能性高”的优秀企业普通股的长期投资；
4、中期固定收益证券
5、长期固定收益证券
6、现金等价物；
（二）非常规投资
1、廉价股的阶段性持有；即巴菲特合伙公司期间所谓的Generals。是巴菲特早年的传统投资，我把他作为巴菲特晚年的非传统投资。巴菲特前几年在韩国股市的投资经历，重温了这一投资方法，yesterday once more .
2、短期套利；主要是巴菲特所谓的workouts，购并套利；此外还包括固定收入套利等；
3、可转债；
4、可转换优先股；
5、认股权证；
6、垃圾债券；
7、长期零息债；
8、商品期货；包括石油期货和白银期货；
9、外汇期权；
10、衍生品合约。包括CDS和卖出长期的股票指数看跌期权。
从这个划分大家可以看到，这才是巴菲特投资系统的全貌。但国人通常认为巴菲特的投资只包括常规投资的前两项或前三项，这是片面的。巴菲特是技术全面的投资大师。
Saturday, January 10, 2009
股神巴菲特8大论点 可窥明年大市端倪
“股神”巴菲特一向投资眼光独到，他的投资旗舰巴郡过去曾多次在逆市中赚钱，成功令他晋身全球首富。新年将至，回顾巴菲特以往对经济的看法，或可预计到明年大市的端倪。
无法永远避免衰退：2007年底，巴菲特表示如果失业率上升，会引发骨牌效应，美国经济2008年会陷入衰退，结果他说对了，但他不感到出奇，“资本主义本质就是周期性地出现衰退。”
我们会捱过当前和未来的衰退，正如我们克服过去的问题：巴菲特2007年和2008年都不断重复说：“我们的经济表现优异，世界历史上从没有这样的时光，我们的生活质素平均比一个世纪前好7倍。”
衰退创造机会：巴菲特表示自己至今所做的最好交易是在1974年进行，当时悲观情绪蔓延、油价急升和出现滞胀，但股票很便宜。
不是所有股票都便宜：成功的投资者等待正确时间买入正确股票，但这些情况不是每天都发生。投资切忌摇摆不定，正如打棒球般要看准投球才挥棒击球。
群众会犯错：对与错不是因为其他人同意你，而是因为你的事实和推理正确，如果事实和推理正确，你就不用理会其他人。
投资者误以为股价下跌是坏事：巴菲特以汉堡包作比喻，认为如果汉堡包减价，他会很高兴，但不会回想昨天多付了钱买汉堡包。
好景促使作坏决定：2000年科网泡沫期间，巴菲特向巴郡股东致函，形容股价大升时仍然高追的股民像舞会上的灰姑娘，想尽量延长舞会时间。
宿醉过后是另一次疯狂派对：回看科网泡沫，巴菲特说：“世人都疯了，我们的历史教训就是人们不汲取历史教训。”
无法永远避免衰退：2007年底，巴菲特表示如果失业率上升，会引发骨牌效应，美国经济2008年会陷入衰退，结果他说对了，但他不感到出奇，“资本主义本质就是周期性地出现衰退。”
我们会捱过当前和未来的衰退，正如我们克服过去的问题：巴菲特2007年和2008年都不断重复说：“我们的经济表现优异，世界历史上从没有这样的时光，我们的生活质素平均比一个世纪前好7倍。”
衰退创造机会：巴菲特表示自己至今所做的最好交易是在1974年进行，当时悲观情绪蔓延、油价急升和出现滞胀，但股票很便宜。
不是所有股票都便宜：成功的投资者等待正确时间买入正确股票，但这些情况不是每天都发生。投资切忌摇摆不定，正如打棒球般要看准投球才挥棒击球。
群众会犯错：对与错不是因为其他人同意你，而是因为你的事实和推理正确，如果事实和推理正确，你就不用理会其他人。
投资者误以为股价下跌是坏事：巴菲特以汉堡包作比喻，认为如果汉堡包减价，他会很高兴，但不会回想昨天多付了钱买汉堡包。
好景促使作坏决定：2000年科网泡沫期间，巴菲特向巴郡股东致函，形容股价大升时仍然高追的股民像舞会上的灰姑娘，想尽量延长舞会时间。
宿醉过后是另一次疯狂派对：回看科网泡沫，巴菲特说：“世人都疯了，我们的历史教训就是人们不汲取历史教训。”
比尔.米勒失败案例大讨论
个人觉得，米勒似乎在投资之前没有考虑到企业在危机下的存活问题， 他好像认为任何大企业只要受到严重打击、股价大跌就是买点。
我认为他的失误部分原因在于对风险的考虑不足，没有看到次贷危机下的高度不确定性，或许过度乐观了，忽视了谨慎与理性。
涨好回复：思考如下:
1,这个米勒过于注重"反向"投资法,虽然以前很多年获得成功,但是感觉他对企业了解深度和程度远不如巴菲特.(比如里面细节中讲到,他买房地美是听从林奇的介绍),这说明他可能自我独立判断能力比巴菲特要差,或者他财务分析能力功力还不够.不能很好的区分那些是真正机会那些是陷阱。
2,心理层面：他太想获胜,这点可能令他容易钻进牛角尖,以往问题不大,但是一旦黑天鹅出现时容易受伤.当然这种黑天鹅是百年难遇的.
3,我想巴非特为什么以前也买了这种类似的危险资产,但是几乎都能避开,这也是巴菲特的能力所在,商业天赋或者其他功力集大成之所在.
对此,我觉得我们(尤其是我)应该在财务分析、企业商务行为、企业管理（尤其是细节）、企业文化等等一系列的上面多花工夫学习并实践，慢慢朝投资者是企业家、企业家就是投资者的境界发展。这样才能达到目标。 攀登估值这座大山我们才刚刚起步啊！
我的看法:
比尔米勒对金融危机的把握不够深入全面.成功投资金融股不是简单的逆向投资就能够成就的.加上米勒那种不成功便成仁的个性使得他在这趟水中越走越深.虽然过去曾有过成功经验,但显然闪电打下来时,比勒被击中了.比勒说自己还是缺少经验,我以为他缺的不是简单的经验问题,更要紧的是要对人性孤注一掷的弥补和修正--------这种性格,碰上万分之一的失误,便可能万劫不复.算得再好吧也可能有意外,"人算不如天算",你得在天算后面再有所准备.
第二点:金融股高杠杆的特性显然放大了风险.看看米勒他们的团队在贝尔斯登破产前还对其业务进行了相对准确的估值.但却漏掉了挤兑破产的可能.这种视而不见的投资态度何其可笑!想必他们肯定是太学院派了.米勒还有心情满意在贝尔斯登换新东家后对其相对准确的估值啊?他在曼哈顿时整天同首席执行长,股票分析师及基金经理讨论股票创意也没能阻止他走向通往泥泞的方向.可见,深入认识一个行业一个公司最好的对象获得不在评判者的嘴里.它在哪?我想应该是在实业工作者那里.
因对米勒的投资动机和决策过程不甚了解，无法做过多评论
仅仅从文章表面介绍的情况看，其术和道两个层面，都有不足，我们需要认真思考其教训：
1、就术的层面而言，
米勒的失误，表面上看，是对企业的估值的错误，本质是对企业的核心竞争能力的把握不准, 估值本质是对企业的产品、市场、财务、管理、文化、长期竞争优势的全面判断，对比巴老的多次抄底，成功率明显较高，尽管也有失手的时候可见巴老对行业和企业的把握，的确功力更加深厚 米勒毕竟也曾经是长期战绩辉煌，一代风云人物，尚且如此，对我们的警示就更显得重要。
2、从道的层面而言
米勒只想获胜，其心态不够宁静。 无欲则刚、无为则无不为想想前段时间，社会上充斥了各种超越巴老的论调，言必称要成为中国最。。。的各种言论其实这又何尝不是另一种贪，另一种欲 借用九阳真经一段口诀：
他强由他强，清风拂山岗；
他檓由他檓，明月照大江。
他自狠来他自恶，我自一口真气足
价值投资，知易行难.
我认为他的失误部分原因在于对风险的考虑不足，没有看到次贷危机下的高度不确定性，或许过度乐观了，忽视了谨慎与理性。
涨好回复：思考如下:
1,这个米勒过于注重"反向"投资法,虽然以前很多年获得成功,但是感觉他对企业了解深度和程度远不如巴菲特.(比如里面细节中讲到,他买房地美是听从林奇的介绍),这说明他可能自我独立判断能力比巴菲特要差,或者他财务分析能力功力还不够.不能很好的区分那些是真正机会那些是陷阱。
2,心理层面：他太想获胜,这点可能令他容易钻进牛角尖,以往问题不大,但是一旦黑天鹅出现时容易受伤.当然这种黑天鹅是百年难遇的.
3,我想巴非特为什么以前也买了这种类似的危险资产,但是几乎都能避开,这也是巴菲特的能力所在,商业天赋或者其他功力集大成之所在.
对此,我觉得我们(尤其是我)应该在财务分析、企业商务行为、企业管理（尤其是细节）、企业文化等等一系列的上面多花工夫学习并实践，慢慢朝投资者是企业家、企业家就是投资者的境界发展。这样才能达到目标。 攀登估值这座大山我们才刚刚起步啊！
我的看法:
比尔米勒对金融危机的把握不够深入全面.成功投资金融股不是简单的逆向投资就能够成就的.加上米勒那种不成功便成仁的个性使得他在这趟水中越走越深.虽然过去曾有过成功经验,但显然闪电打下来时,比勒被击中了.比勒说自己还是缺少经验,我以为他缺的不是简单的经验问题,更要紧的是要对人性孤注一掷的弥补和修正--------这种性格,碰上万分之一的失误,便可能万劫不复.算得再好吧也可能有意外,"人算不如天算",你得在天算后面再有所准备.
第二点:金融股高杠杆的特性显然放大了风险.看看米勒他们的团队在贝尔斯登破产前还对其业务进行了相对准确的估值.但却漏掉了挤兑破产的可能.这种视而不见的投资态度何其可笑!想必他们肯定是太学院派了.米勒还有心情满意在贝尔斯登换新东家后对其相对准确的估值啊?他在曼哈顿时整天同首席执行长,股票分析师及基金经理讨论股票创意也没能阻止他走向通往泥泞的方向.可见,深入认识一个行业一个公司最好的对象获得不在评判者的嘴里.它在哪?我想应该是在实业工作者那里.
因对米勒的投资动机和决策过程不甚了解，无法做过多评论
仅仅从文章表面介绍的情况看，其术和道两个层面，都有不足，我们需要认真思考其教训：
1、就术的层面而言，
米勒的失误，表面上看，是对企业的估值的错误，本质是对企业的核心竞争能力的把握不准, 估值本质是对企业的产品、市场、财务、管理、文化、长期竞争优势的全面判断，对比巴老的多次抄底，成功率明显较高，尽管也有失手的时候可见巴老对行业和企业的把握，的确功力更加深厚 米勒毕竟也曾经是长期战绩辉煌，一代风云人物，尚且如此，对我们的警示就更显得重要。
2、从道的层面而言
米勒只想获胜，其心态不够宁静。 无欲则刚、无为则无不为想想前段时间，社会上充斥了各种超越巴老的论调，言必称要成为中国最。。。的各种言论其实这又何尝不是另一种贪，另一种欲 借用九阳真经一段口诀：
他强由他强，清风拂山岗；
他檓由他檓，明月照大江。
他自狠来他自恶，我自一口真气足
价值投资，知易行难.
投资第一课：如何做到不亏损？
巴菲特说：“投资第一条是不亏损，第二条是记住第一条”。
但如何做到不亏损呢？答案在1982年巴菲特致股东信中,巴菲特说: “我们的副主席Charlie Munger，总是强调研究事业与人生各方面的失败要比研究成功要重要的多，他这样的精神正如有人说:「我总是想要知道以后我会怎么死，然后尽量去避免这件事发生。”
所以多收集和研究企业和投资的失败案例，然后避免自己犯同样的错误是做到第一条的关键。我收集了不少失败案例，有时间登出来和大家讨论，每个案例我都会写一下自己的观点，主要是起抛砖引玉的作用，欢迎大家跟帖讨论。
以下是最新的一个案例： 米勒：金牌基金经理遭遇滑铁卢
分析：
一、投资系统和投资操作
米勒15年超越市场，业绩不可谓不辉煌。但这次损失让米勒的价值型基金多年来好于大盘的表现被一笔勾销。据晨星的数据，该基金目前在同类基金的最近1年、3年、5年和10年期业绩表上均排在最末档。其投资系统即使经过15年的成功检验，其实还是纯在不少问题。尚不完善。可见构建一个成功的投资系统之难。以下是我的一些分析。
1、 投资标的的选择：米勒的失利基本都在金融股上，金融股的固有风险比较大，因其是杠杆经营，在经济好时，其业绩会大幅增长。在经济和金融危机发生时，其业绩会大幅下滑，甚至破产。抄底金融股要慎之又慎。在本次抄底中，不仅是米勒，不少价值投资者都在金融股上遭受了重大损失，如中投，新加坡投资公司等主权财富基金。还有平安保险和一些著名的价值投资者，巴菲特投资的富国股价还是2，3倍的市净率，不少金融股却都跌破了净资产。平安投资富通以为1.1倍市净率抄底是便宜，不想跌的只剩零头。可见金融股并不是越便宜越好。金融股的分析难度很大，不一定适合一般价值投资者操作。从历史记录看，巴菲特对金融股的操作把握的最好。是真正懂金融股的大师。
2、 避免路径依赖： 2007年本次危机开始时，米勒从自己烂熟于心的股票里挑选了美国国际集团、Wachovia Corp.、贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos.)和房地美。当这些股票连连下跌的时候，他认为投资者反应过度了。他还在买进。四季度向股东解释他的举动时，米勒认为情况同1989-90年时类似。当时他也买进了大幅下挫的银行类股。他写道，有时市场会重现你认为在以前见过的模式。金融类股看来已经触底。因为其以前如此逆向投资成功过，这一次以为是又一次重复时，不同的情况发生了，投资者对反复操作过的股票在第二次操作时会有随意性。不能客观评估当的情况。所以投资者要避免路径依赖。
3、 反向投资和集中投资的命门是：要求判断的准确率要高，否则会损失惨重。巴菲特是反向投资和集中投资的大师。但前提是巴菲特判断的准确率相当的高。巴菲特的分析能力，一般投资者并不具备。所以投资者要客观评价自己的成功率，来制定相应的投资策略，如适度分散投资，选择较安全的标的做逆向投资。如选较安全的消费类抄底。
4、 注意避免小概率事件的打击：长期资本公司即是因小概率事件打击而倒闭。米勒的投资系统虽经历了15年的成功。但不能抗小概率事件的打击。这次的金融危机比上次危机严重的多，超出了预期。米勒比长期资本公司来说，好在未用杠杆。投资者可做情景分析来测试其投资组合的抗风险能力，假设历史上重大的意外事件发生，如9.11、地震等，自己组合会如何？
5、 投资判断的成功率：米勒在1998年至2002年，价值型信托基金的投资组合中有10只股票的跌幅超过75%。包括安然(Enron)和WorldCom在内的三家公司则破产了。说明其分析判断的准确率并不高。
二、境界和心态：
1、当有人问道他是怎么知道错误地买进了还要下跌的股票时，米勒曾回应道，当我们不再能获得报价时。换言之，他不愿意加码买进的唯一价格就是零。
米勒这种不成功则成仁的做法甚至令其他价值型投资者也感到畏惧。米勒的朋友、Davis Funds基金经理克里斯托弗•戴维斯(Christopher Davis)回忆说，曾在90年代初同米勒讨论过他的投资策略。当时他告诉米勒：我的一个目标是正确的次数超过犯错的次数。据戴维斯回忆，米勒回击说，这样很愚蠢。米勒称，真正有意义的是你正确的时候能赚多少。如果你10次错了9次，股票变得一钱不值，但只要第十次上涨了20倍，你就够了。戴维斯说，我可做不到这点。
2、戴维斯说，如果他有退休隐居的想法，那他就不是米勒了。金钱固然有意义，但创造纪录要有意 义得多。戴维斯说，他想的只是获胜。
总结: 高手在技术达到一定高度的情况下，境界和心态对投资成败影响很大。从以上资料看，米勒的境界不高，而且其有“赌”的心理。有时在下跌中不断加码是对自己判断的自信。有时却是自负。从其记录看，其判断的成功率并不高。所以其不断加码的操作有一定赌的成份。
但如何做到不亏损呢？答案在1982年巴菲特致股东信中,巴菲特说: “我们的副主席Charlie Munger，总是强调研究事业与人生各方面的失败要比研究成功要重要的多，他这样的精神正如有人说:「我总是想要知道以后我会怎么死，然后尽量去避免这件事发生。”
所以多收集和研究企业和投资的失败案例，然后避免自己犯同样的错误是做到第一条的关键。我收集了不少失败案例，有时间登出来和大家讨论，每个案例我都会写一下自己的观点，主要是起抛砖引玉的作用，欢迎大家跟帖讨论。
以下是最新的一个案例： 米勒：金牌基金经理遭遇滑铁卢
分析：
一、投资系统和投资操作
米勒15年超越市场，业绩不可谓不辉煌。但这次损失让米勒的价值型基金多年来好于大盘的表现被一笔勾销。据晨星的数据，该基金目前在同类基金的最近1年、3年、5年和10年期业绩表上均排在最末档。其投资系统即使经过15年的成功检验，其实还是纯在不少问题。尚不完善。可见构建一个成功的投资系统之难。以下是我的一些分析。
1、 投资标的的选择：米勒的失利基本都在金融股上，金融股的固有风险比较大，因其是杠杆经营，在经济好时，其业绩会大幅增长。在经济和金融危机发生时，其业绩会大幅下滑，甚至破产。抄底金融股要慎之又慎。在本次抄底中，不仅是米勒，不少价值投资者都在金融股上遭受了重大损失，如中投，新加坡投资公司等主权财富基金。还有平安保险和一些著名的价值投资者，巴菲特投资的富国股价还是2，3倍的市净率，不少金融股却都跌破了净资产。平安投资富通以为1.1倍市净率抄底是便宜，不想跌的只剩零头。可见金融股并不是越便宜越好。金融股的分析难度很大，不一定适合一般价值投资者操作。从历史记录看，巴菲特对金融股的操作把握的最好。是真正懂金融股的大师。
2、 避免路径依赖： 2007年本次危机开始时，米勒从自己烂熟于心的股票里挑选了美国国际集团、Wachovia Corp.、贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos.)和房地美。当这些股票连连下跌的时候，他认为投资者反应过度了。他还在买进。四季度向股东解释他的举动时，米勒认为情况同1989-90年时类似。当时他也买进了大幅下挫的银行类股。他写道，有时市场会重现你认为在以前见过的模式。金融类股看来已经触底。因为其以前如此逆向投资成功过，这一次以为是又一次重复时，不同的情况发生了，投资者对反复操作过的股票在第二次操作时会有随意性。不能客观评估当的情况。所以投资者要避免路径依赖。
3、 反向投资和集中投资的命门是：要求判断的准确率要高，否则会损失惨重。巴菲特是反向投资和集中投资的大师。但前提是巴菲特判断的准确率相当的高。巴菲特的分析能力，一般投资者并不具备。所以投资者要客观评价自己的成功率，来制定相应的投资策略，如适度分散投资，选择较安全的标的做逆向投资。如选较安全的消费类抄底。
4、 注意避免小概率事件的打击：长期资本公司即是因小概率事件打击而倒闭。米勒的投资系统虽经历了15年的成功。但不能抗小概率事件的打击。这次的金融危机比上次危机严重的多，超出了预期。米勒比长期资本公司来说，好在未用杠杆。投资者可做情景分析来测试其投资组合的抗风险能力，假设历史上重大的意外事件发生，如9.11、地震等，自己组合会如何？
5、 投资判断的成功率：米勒在1998年至2002年，价值型信托基金的投资组合中有10只股票的跌幅超过75%。包括安然(Enron)和WorldCom在内的三家公司则破产了。说明其分析判断的准确率并不高。
二、境界和心态：
1、当有人问道他是怎么知道错误地买进了还要下跌的股票时，米勒曾回应道，当我们不再能获得报价时。换言之，他不愿意加码买进的唯一价格就是零。
米勒这种不成功则成仁的做法甚至令其他价值型投资者也感到畏惧。米勒的朋友、Davis Funds基金经理克里斯托弗•戴维斯(Christopher Davis)回忆说，曾在90年代初同米勒讨论过他的投资策略。当时他告诉米勒：我的一个目标是正确的次数超过犯错的次数。据戴维斯回忆，米勒回击说，这样很愚蠢。米勒称，真正有意义的是你正确的时候能赚多少。如果你10次错了9次，股票变得一钱不值，但只要第十次上涨了20倍，你就够了。戴维斯说，我可做不到这点。
2、戴维斯说，如果他有退休隐居的想法，那他就不是米勒了。金钱固然有意义，但创造纪录要有意 义得多。戴维斯说，他想的只是获胜。
总结: 高手在技术达到一定高度的情况下，境界和心态对投资成败影响很大。从以上资料看，米勒的境界不高，而且其有“赌”的心理。有时在下跌中不断加码是对自己判断的自信。有时却是自负。从其记录看，其判断的成功率并不高。所以其不断加码的操作有一定赌的成份。
不战而胜 宁静创富——“巴式投资者”陈理
小张老师：你学习、研究和应用巴菲特思想已经有十几年的时间，以你的研究和经验，普通投资者进入实战阶段后，首先要注意什么？
陈理：我认为，投资的首要问题是分清投资和投机。投资大师巴菲特这样区分：如果你是投资家，你会考虑你的资产——即你的企业——将会怎样；如果你是一个投机家，你关心的不是企业而是主要预测价格将会怎样。对于投资和投机，我觉得也可以这样形象地理解：投资是当老板，让钱为你工作，投机是当打工仔，为了钱而工作；投资是为了爱情而结婚，投机是为了钱而结婚；投资是一生缘，投机是一夜情。
小张老师：很多人试图把投资与投机结合起来，把价值投资与波段操作结合起来，你认为这条道路行得通吗？
陈理：说老实话，10年前我也有过这样的想法，做过很多研究和以真金白银为代价的试验。我得出的结论是：此路不通，很难得出更卓越的投资方法。投资有投资之道，投机也有投机的方法。投资者心中有两杆秤，一杆称量企业价值，一杆称量市场趋势。而企业价值和市场趋势短期内经常会发生背离，投资者有时为了价值标准而降低趋势标准的要求，有时为了趋势标准而降低价值标准的要求，投资者往往由此陷入首鼠两端、自相矛盾的困境而不能自拔。
小张老师：有人认为普通投资者学习巴菲特式的价值投资很困难，需要掌握的东西太多，你以为如何？
陈理：投资其实很简单，不需要搞得太复杂。核心是学会评价企业的价值和正确对待市场波动。正如巴菲特所言：“在我们看来，关于投资，学生仅需学习两门课程，一门为如何评估企业，另一门为如何看待市场价格。”
小张老师：你能否举几个成功案例来说明实战的一些经验和技巧？
陈理：可以谈一些体会，成功案例也有一些。如早年对长虹，近年对万科、招行和伊泰B的投资等；失败案例也不少，如七八年前对电广传媒的投资等。在这里我主要谈四点体会：
1、聚焦超级明星企业。一克拉钻石胜过一千斤玻璃，投资少数几家超级明星企业远胜过几十家二三流的企业。很多投资者整天围绕“体质”不好的股票打转转，等于是放着白雪公主不要，而去娶一个骑着扫把的巫婆。
2、做逆风飞翔的雄鹰。买进再好的公司的股票也要坚持“安全边际”的原则，即股价相对其内在价值大打折扣时买进。当股市的恐慌和公司的坏消息同时出现时，通常是顶风买进超级明星的最佳时机。
3、机会来临重拳出击。好公司出现低估的机会是如此之少，“如同亲眼目睹哈雷彗星”，一旦机遇叩门，你却没有做好准备，或者只是蜻蜓点水，不痛不痒地买一点，就犯了一个大错误。
4、“和好公司结婚生子”。用对待婚姻的态度一样对待超级明星企业，如果它们没有“变坏”，尽可能和它们结婚生子(分红)，一起慢慢变老。当然浪漫也可能要付出代价，如果你看走眼，和一家差公司一起慢慢变老，其代价是沉重的。所以，除非是少数几家伟大企业，其余企业的股票如果价格高估或基本面变坏，或有更好的投资机会，或一开始就看走眼，都应该果断卖出。
小张老师：有人认为普通投资者调查了解上市公司很困难，你怎么看？
陈理：我认为，进行公司研究应坚持“第一信息源”的原则，谨防二手资料引起信息失真。总结自己调查研究上市公司的经验，有这么几条，希望对大家有所帮助：
1、看年报一手资料，有疑问电话了解；
2、调查前做好功课，准备好要问的问题；
3、多参加股东大会，与高管接触对话；
4、直接去拜访公司，参观与董秘交谈；
5、去超市或服务点，观察和用户闲聊；
6、听竞争对手意见，向行业专家请教；
7、读老总文章书信，留意其言行思想。
小张老师：作为巴式投资者，你对宏观经济预测和大盘走向是怎么判断的？
陈理：关于宏观经济预测，我不关注也不相信，因为我知道宏观经济是一个庞大的复杂适应性系统，变量非常多，没有任何模型能准确预测，超出了任何预言家的能力范围。所以巴菲特说：“预言家的墓地里有一大半都躺着总体经济分析家。”我专注于微观经济即公司长期竞争优势的分析。
关于大盘走向。我认为大盘的短期走向是不可知的，也不重要。只有在极端的情形下，分析家才能对股市的中长期走向发出权威的声音，其他大部分时间水晶球都是模糊不清的，分析家的预言也是苍白无力的。
陈理：我认为，投资的首要问题是分清投资和投机。投资大师巴菲特这样区分：如果你是投资家，你会考虑你的资产——即你的企业——将会怎样；如果你是一个投机家，你关心的不是企业而是主要预测价格将会怎样。对于投资和投机，我觉得也可以这样形象地理解：投资是当老板，让钱为你工作，投机是当打工仔，为了钱而工作；投资是为了爱情而结婚，投机是为了钱而结婚；投资是一生缘，投机是一夜情。
小张老师：很多人试图把投资与投机结合起来，把价值投资与波段操作结合起来，你认为这条道路行得通吗？
陈理：说老实话，10年前我也有过这样的想法，做过很多研究和以真金白银为代价的试验。我得出的结论是：此路不通，很难得出更卓越的投资方法。投资有投资之道，投机也有投机的方法。投资者心中有两杆秤，一杆称量企业价值，一杆称量市场趋势。而企业价值和市场趋势短期内经常会发生背离，投资者有时为了价值标准而降低趋势标准的要求，有时为了趋势标准而降低价值标准的要求，投资者往往由此陷入首鼠两端、自相矛盾的困境而不能自拔。
小张老师：有人认为普通投资者学习巴菲特式的价值投资很困难，需要掌握的东西太多，你以为如何？
陈理：投资其实很简单，不需要搞得太复杂。核心是学会评价企业的价值和正确对待市场波动。正如巴菲特所言：“在我们看来，关于投资，学生仅需学习两门课程，一门为如何评估企业，另一门为如何看待市场价格。”
小张老师：你能否举几个成功案例来说明实战的一些经验和技巧？
陈理：可以谈一些体会，成功案例也有一些。如早年对长虹，近年对万科、招行和伊泰B的投资等；失败案例也不少，如七八年前对电广传媒的投资等。在这里我主要谈四点体会：
1、聚焦超级明星企业。一克拉钻石胜过一千斤玻璃，投资少数几家超级明星企业远胜过几十家二三流的企业。很多投资者整天围绕“体质”不好的股票打转转，等于是放着白雪公主不要，而去娶一个骑着扫把的巫婆。
2、做逆风飞翔的雄鹰。买进再好的公司的股票也要坚持“安全边际”的原则，即股价相对其内在价值大打折扣时买进。当股市的恐慌和公司的坏消息同时出现时，通常是顶风买进超级明星的最佳时机。
3、机会来临重拳出击。好公司出现低估的机会是如此之少，“如同亲眼目睹哈雷彗星”，一旦机遇叩门，你却没有做好准备，或者只是蜻蜓点水，不痛不痒地买一点，就犯了一个大错误。
4、“和好公司结婚生子”。用对待婚姻的态度一样对待超级明星企业，如果它们没有“变坏”，尽可能和它们结婚生子(分红)，一起慢慢变老。当然浪漫也可能要付出代价，如果你看走眼，和一家差公司一起慢慢变老，其代价是沉重的。所以，除非是少数几家伟大企业，其余企业的股票如果价格高估或基本面变坏，或有更好的投资机会，或一开始就看走眼，都应该果断卖出。
小张老师：有人认为普通投资者调查了解上市公司很困难，你怎么看？
陈理：我认为，进行公司研究应坚持“第一信息源”的原则，谨防二手资料引起信息失真。总结自己调查研究上市公司的经验，有这么几条，希望对大家有所帮助：
1、看年报一手资料，有疑问电话了解；
2、调查前做好功课，准备好要问的问题；
3、多参加股东大会，与高管接触对话；
4、直接去拜访公司，参观与董秘交谈；
5、去超市或服务点，观察和用户闲聊；
6、听竞争对手意见，向行业专家请教；
7、读老总文章书信，留意其言行思想。
小张老师：作为巴式投资者，你对宏观经济预测和大盘走向是怎么判断的？
陈理：关于宏观经济预测，我不关注也不相信，因为我知道宏观经济是一个庞大的复杂适应性系统，变量非常多，没有任何模型能准确预测，超出了任何预言家的能力范围。所以巴菲特说：“预言家的墓地里有一大半都躺着总体经济分析家。”我专注于微观经济即公司长期竞争优势的分析。
关于大盘走向。我认为大盘的短期走向是不可知的，也不重要。只有在极端的情形下，分析家才能对股市的中长期走向发出权威的声音，其他大部分时间水晶球都是模糊不清的，分析家的预言也是苍白无力的。
Rifts show as Obama urges quick action on stimulus
Lawmakers are under orders to finish action on President-elect Barack Obama's nearly $800 billion economic recovery plan by mid-February. But already it is plain that a set of serious fissures need to be bridged if the bill is to be completed within five weeks.
Obama urged Congress on Thursday to "act boldly and act now" to fix an economy growing perilously weaker, even as top Democrats said they dislike key provisions, especially the design of his tax cuts.
Democrats such as Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad complained openly that many of the incoming administration's proposed tax cuts wouldn't work. Republicans warned against excessive new spending, with both parties signaling the incoming president they intend to place their own stamp on the economic recovery effort.
Conrad, D-N.D., and Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., also staked a firm position against using the economic recovery plan for permanent spending increases, opening a split with House
Democrats hoping to use the plan to broaden eligibility for unemployment insurance and boost education spending.
"Doing things that would have a permanent effect when we face trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see is just unwise," Conrad said.
A call for a $3,000 tax break for job creation drew particular criticism in a closed-door meeting, and numerous lawmakers said Obama had not ticketed enough of his tax proposal for energy.
But there was little or no dispute about the need for action, and Obama's remarks coincided with a pair of government reports showing fresh weakness in an economy already in recession. An updated reading on unemployment was expected to bring even more bad news on Friday.
"If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years," with unemployment reaching double digits, Obama said in a speech at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. "A bad situation could become dramatically worse."
Obama's aides and congressional Democrats have been at work for weeks on legislation to create new jobs, help the unemployed, cut taxes and aid cash-strapped states. There also are subsidies to help the newly unemployed afford their health care, a big new effort to improve the energy efficiency of federal buildings, and tax credits for business investment in plants and equipment.
The details are closely held and subject to change — and the cost of various components seems to be bouncing around daily in the push and pull between the Obama transition team and congressional leaders.
Obama's chief political strategist, David Axelrod, and incoming chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, heard plenty of ideas and criticisms during Capitol Hill meetings Thursday.
"There was what one would expect, which is constructive comments," Axelrod told reporters. "I'm not going to characterize it as push-back. I'm going to characterize it as people doing their jobs."
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., promised lawmakers would cancel next month's planned Presidents' Day recess if necessary.
"We are not going home without an economic recovery package," she told reporters, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, at a different appearance, agreed that that allowed enough time to get the job done.
About $300 billion of Obama's package would be for tax cuts or refunds for individuals and businesses.
One tax provision would provide a $500 tax cut for most workers and $1,000 for couples, at a cost of about $140 billion to $150 billion over two years. The individual tax cuts may be awarded through withholding less from worker paychecks, effectively making checks about $10 to $20 larger each week.
Democrats emerging from a closed-door meeting of the Senate Finance Committee had little positive to say about the tax cut proposals. Conrad was critical of the proposed break for workers and their families.
"Twenty bucks a week. How much of a lift is that going to give?" he said.
Nor did he sound positive about a proposed tax break for businesses to create jobs — a $3,000 tax credit for companies that hire or retrain workers.
"If I'm a business person, it's unlikely if you give me a several thousand dollar credit that I'm going to hire people if I can't sell the products they're producing," Conrad said.
Republicans noted forecasts of a record $1.2 trillion deficit for the current year and said too much additional spending could be harmful. "We can't buy prosperity with more and more government spending," declared Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader.
Obama urged Congress on Thursday to "act boldly and act now" to fix an economy growing perilously weaker, even as top Democrats said they dislike key provisions, especially the design of his tax cuts.
Democrats such as Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad complained openly that many of the incoming administration's proposed tax cuts wouldn't work. Republicans warned against excessive new spending, with both parties signaling the incoming president they intend to place their own stamp on the economic recovery effort.
Conrad, D-N.D., and Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., also staked a firm position against using the economic recovery plan for permanent spending increases, opening a split with House
Democrats hoping to use the plan to broaden eligibility for unemployment insurance and boost education spending.
"Doing things that would have a permanent effect when we face trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see is just unwise," Conrad said.
A call for a $3,000 tax break for job creation drew particular criticism in a closed-door meeting, and numerous lawmakers said Obama had not ticketed enough of his tax proposal for energy.
But there was little or no dispute about the need for action, and Obama's remarks coincided with a pair of government reports showing fresh weakness in an economy already in recession. An updated reading on unemployment was expected to bring even more bad news on Friday.
"If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years," with unemployment reaching double digits, Obama said in a speech at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. "A bad situation could become dramatically worse."
Obama's aides and congressional Democrats have been at work for weeks on legislation to create new jobs, help the unemployed, cut taxes and aid cash-strapped states. There also are subsidies to help the newly unemployed afford their health care, a big new effort to improve the energy efficiency of federal buildings, and tax credits for business investment in plants and equipment.
The details are closely held and subject to change — and the cost of various components seems to be bouncing around daily in the push and pull between the Obama transition team and congressional leaders.
Obama's chief political strategist, David Axelrod, and incoming chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, heard plenty of ideas and criticisms during Capitol Hill meetings Thursday.
"There was what one would expect, which is constructive comments," Axelrod told reporters. "I'm not going to characterize it as push-back. I'm going to characterize it as people doing their jobs."
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., promised lawmakers would cancel next month's planned Presidents' Day recess if necessary.
"We are not going home without an economic recovery package," she told reporters, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, at a different appearance, agreed that that allowed enough time to get the job done.
About $300 billion of Obama's package would be for tax cuts or refunds for individuals and businesses.
One tax provision would provide a $500 tax cut for most workers and $1,000 for couples, at a cost of about $140 billion to $150 billion over two years. The individual tax cuts may be awarded through withholding less from worker paychecks, effectively making checks about $10 to $20 larger each week.
Democrats emerging from a closed-door meeting of the Senate Finance Committee had little positive to say about the tax cut proposals. Conrad was critical of the proposed break for workers and their families.
"Twenty bucks a week. How much of a lift is that going to give?" he said.
Nor did he sound positive about a proposed tax break for businesses to create jobs — a $3,000 tax credit for companies that hire or retrain workers.
"If I'm a business person, it's unlikely if you give me a several thousand dollar credit that I'm going to hire people if I can't sell the products they're producing," Conrad said.
Republicans noted forecasts of a record $1.2 trillion deficit for the current year and said too much additional spending could be harmful. "We can't buy prosperity with more and more government spending," declared Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader.
中国股市见底的征兆？
中国股市今年怎么走？与一年前众口一词看多不同，机构、分析师和股评家对今年股市走势的预测存在分歧。 但他们的预测基调大同小异：由于外部环境难以迅速改善，政府财政和货币政策的刺激效应又要滞后体现，中国经济上半年将继续下滑，下半年才有望好转。相应地，股市将会继续探底，甚至创下新低，此后展开的反弹持续前景也不明确。
一句话：今年股市的不确定性很大。 其实在历史上，人们对每一次牛市都会觉得“这一次不一样”，相信它会永远持续；而对每一次熊市，也会觉得这次的不确定性很大，面临的都是新问题，不可能很快解决。但实际上每一次的结果都一样：牛市在人们的疯狂中反转，熊市在人们的绝望中结束。 推动这一切循环往复的，是不变的人性：贪婪与恐惧。 因此，要判断中国股市什么时候见底，或许我们可以从过去人们在熊市末期的表现中找到线索。假如出现了以下表现，基本可以肯定股市已经见底：
（一）蓝筹股大幅下跌，机构投资者纷纷清仓，等待形势更明朗。 被股市下跌吓坏了的不仅是散户，还有机构投资者。他们首先一窝蜂地购入蓝筹股避险，但当蓝筹股也挺不住，其中一些股票价格甚至低于公司净资产价格的时候，机构投资者纷纷清仓，做壁上观，表现出极度的风险厌恶，类似于中投公司在海外投资失利后的表现。
（二）专业人士对价值投资失去信心。 在股指和股价一跌再跌后，分析师们认为股票的价值根本无法衡量，用公司的每股盈利来判断股票价值已经失去意义。据巴菲特的一本传记记载，巴菲特的导师格雷厄姆1934年出版《证券分析》时，一位知名的评论家洛布也出版了一本名为《为投资生存而战》的书。书中问道，如果道琼斯指数能够从1929年的381.17点跌到1932年的41.22点，那么真正的价值在哪里？
（三）投资股市被认为不是正道 在股市极度低迷的时候，人们认为股票从一开始就不是投资之道。上面提到的洛布在书中说，要通过股票投资获利，根本就是“不可能的”。而主流媒体在描述股市和经济时充斥着“暗淡”、“恶化”、“坟墓”等字样。当然最有名的就是美国《商业周刊》在1979年8月直接宣布“股市已经死亡”。
回头看历史，很多事情都显得简单、可笑，当我们身处其中时，却往往难以发现这些可笑之处。要摆脱从众心理，做到“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪，”其实需要极大的勇气。现在大家都承认，中国股市的投资价值已经开始凸现，但是假如股市继续下跌甚至恐慌情绪弥漫，你还能坚持自己的判断并大胆买进吗？
就在《商业周刊》宣布股市“几乎永久性地”死亡的同时，巴菲特在《福布斯》撰文说：“将来永远是看不清晰的。在股市上，人们为令人愉快的共识付出了高昂的代价。对于坚持长期价值的投资者来说，不确定性实际上是一位朋友。” 一年前，中国的机构、分析师和股评家达成了愉快的共识，但现实与他们的预测背道而驰。现在，人们面临的是“不确定性”，我们能不能与它共舞？
一句话：今年股市的不确定性很大。 其实在历史上，人们对每一次牛市都会觉得“这一次不一样”，相信它会永远持续；而对每一次熊市，也会觉得这次的不确定性很大，面临的都是新问题，不可能很快解决。但实际上每一次的结果都一样：牛市在人们的疯狂中反转，熊市在人们的绝望中结束。 推动这一切循环往复的，是不变的人性：贪婪与恐惧。 因此，要判断中国股市什么时候见底，或许我们可以从过去人们在熊市末期的表现中找到线索。假如出现了以下表现，基本可以肯定股市已经见底：
（一）蓝筹股大幅下跌，机构投资者纷纷清仓，等待形势更明朗。 被股市下跌吓坏了的不仅是散户，还有机构投资者。他们首先一窝蜂地购入蓝筹股避险，但当蓝筹股也挺不住，其中一些股票价格甚至低于公司净资产价格的时候，机构投资者纷纷清仓，做壁上观，表现出极度的风险厌恶，类似于中投公司在海外投资失利后的表现。
（二）专业人士对价值投资失去信心。 在股指和股价一跌再跌后，分析师们认为股票的价值根本无法衡量，用公司的每股盈利来判断股票价值已经失去意义。据巴菲特的一本传记记载，巴菲特的导师格雷厄姆1934年出版《证券分析》时，一位知名的评论家洛布也出版了一本名为《为投资生存而战》的书。书中问道，如果道琼斯指数能够从1929年的381.17点跌到1932年的41.22点，那么真正的价值在哪里？
（三）投资股市被认为不是正道 在股市极度低迷的时候，人们认为股票从一开始就不是投资之道。上面提到的洛布在书中说，要通过股票投资获利，根本就是“不可能的”。而主流媒体在描述股市和经济时充斥着“暗淡”、“恶化”、“坟墓”等字样。当然最有名的就是美国《商业周刊》在1979年8月直接宣布“股市已经死亡”。
回头看历史，很多事情都显得简单、可笑，当我们身处其中时，却往往难以发现这些可笑之处。要摆脱从众心理，做到“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪，”其实需要极大的勇气。现在大家都承认，中国股市的投资价值已经开始凸现，但是假如股市继续下跌甚至恐慌情绪弥漫，你还能坚持自己的判断并大胆买进吗？
就在《商业周刊》宣布股市“几乎永久性地”死亡的同时，巴菲特在《福布斯》撰文说：“将来永远是看不清晰的。在股市上，人们为令人愉快的共识付出了高昂的代价。对于坚持长期价值的投资者来说，不确定性实际上是一位朋友。” 一年前，中国的机构、分析师和股评家达成了愉快的共识，但现实与他们的预测背道而驰。现在，人们面临的是“不确定性”，我们能不能与它共舞？
美国财政刺激计划可能不足以提振经济
美国的财政和货币刺激计划或许并不能带来一些投资者似乎期待的那种提振效果。推动美国股市近期上扬的动力之一是，市场普遍认为，得益于美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)的大力度措施，以及当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)增加政府开支和减税的计划，2009年下半年美国经济将实现复苏。这类政策措施虽然未能立刻给市场带来一片光明，但还是帮助投资者以较为轻松的心态看待一系列负面经济消息。
然而周三的行情显示，股市或许已经涨过头了。政府的开支计划要在一段时间后才颁布，而且，可能没有足够多“可立刻动工”的基础设施项目来抵消民间需求的萎缩。减税能给经济带来的直接好处还不清楚：去年的退税对损失的收入有所弥补，但往往被消费者转为储蓄了。退税终止后，消费开支也随之下降。对企业的税收减免可能同样无法刺激起持续的投资增长。
即使财政刺激计划对经济衰退的受害者有所帮助，也不是解决危机的治本之策，引发危机的根本原因是银行资产负债表上的不良资产；按揭贷款拖欠不还和其他贷款变成坏帐的现象持续发生，导致银行资产负债表进一步恶化。
Amherst Holdings的首席执行长鲍勃森(Sean Dobson)估计，目前仍有大约7,000亿美元不良按揭资产需要从资产负债表上清除。Amherst从事按揭证券的交易。政府还没有什么专门计划来解决这个问题。但只要这一问题依然存在，经济刺激计划就难以使美国的经济航船重归正确航向。
然而周三的行情显示，股市或许已经涨过头了。政府的开支计划要在一段时间后才颁布，而且，可能没有足够多“可立刻动工”的基础设施项目来抵消民间需求的萎缩。减税能给经济带来的直接好处还不清楚：去年的退税对损失的收入有所弥补，但往往被消费者转为储蓄了。退税终止后，消费开支也随之下降。对企业的税收减免可能同样无法刺激起持续的投资增长。
即使财政刺激计划对经济衰退的受害者有所帮助，也不是解决危机的治本之策，引发危机的根本原因是银行资产负债表上的不良资产；按揭贷款拖欠不还和其他贷款变成坏帐的现象持续发生，导致银行资产负债表进一步恶化。
Amherst Holdings的首席执行长鲍勃森(Sean Dobson)估计，目前仍有大约7,000亿美元不良按揭资产需要从资产负债表上清除。Amherst从事按揭证券的交易。政府还没有什么专门计划来解决这个问题。但只要这一问题依然存在，经济刺激计划就难以使美国的经济航船重归正确航向。
Friday, January 9, 2009
Property Sector
4Q flash estimates for property prices. The URA released the flash estimates of the price index of private residential property for the fourth quarter (4Q) of 2008 on 2 January 2009. Based on the estimates, prices fell by 5.7% in 4Q compared with a drop of 2.4% in 3Q. This is the second consecutive quarterly drop in residential property prices and is in line with our expectations. We believe that property prices will continue to decline for 2009.
Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 6.3% in Core Central Region, 5.5% in Rest of Central Region and 4.7% in Outside Central Region. The fall is the largest in the Core Central Region, which would consist of homes in the luxury segment. This is followed by Rest of Central Region, which is the mid-end segment, and Outside Central Region, which is the mass market segment. Wealthy locals and foreigners have been cautious in buying high-end homes due to the negative impact from the global financial crisis. The drop is less for the mass-market as prices have not risen as sharply as high-end homes. Moreover, there is some support from HDB flat prices, which have risen to an all-time high.
Due to the slowdown in the global economy and decreasing purchasing power of property buyers, we are expecting high-end, mid-end and mass-market home prices to decrease by 20% to 25%, 15% to 20% and 10% to 15% respectively for 2009.
At the same time, HDB published the flash estimate for the public housing resale price index for 4Q 2008. The index rose by 1.5 percent to 139.5. This is much lower than the 4.2% increase in 3Q 2008. The HDB market remains strong due to demand from young married couples as well as permanent residents who are buying their own flats due to the rise in rental costs. In fact, the strong demand for HDB homes can be seen from the large number of applications, which can amount to two or three times, for the limited number of new HDB flats.
In summary, we anticipate that private residential property prices will continue to fall in 2009. Recovery will take place after we have seen signs of recovery in the global economy.
Deterioration in the Singapore economy. On 2 January 2009, the government released the advance estimates for the Singapore economy in 2008. For the fourth quarter of 2008, gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 2.6 percent in real terms over the same period in 2008. In fact, real GDP decreased by 12.5 percent compared to the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized quarter-onquarter basis. For the whole of 2008, GDP grew by only 1.5 percent compared to 7.7 percent in 2007.
The slowdown in the economy was mainly caused by the contraction of 3.7 percent by the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the services and construction sectors reported decreases in the growth rates to 5.3 percent and 17.3 percent respectively.
The weak economy is due to the sharp slowdown in global demand, trade & investments.
At the same time, the government cut its estimates and expects GDP in 2009 to be between –2.0 percent and 1.0 percent. This was lower than its November 2008 forecast of –1.0 percent and 2.0 percent.
Moreover, we expect retrenchments and wage cuts to continue to take place for the early part of this year as companies slash costs to ensure their survival during the slowing economy. With the weakness in the economy and the increase in unemployment, property buyers are likely to remain cautious. We maintain our bearish outlook for sales volume and prices in 2009.
Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS). Under the DPS, buyers can purchase uncompleted residential properties by paying 10 to 20 percent downpayment to the developer. The remaining 80 to 90 percent of the purchase price has to be paid only when the temporary occupation permits of the properties are issued. This scheme was introduced in October 1997 and withdrawn in October 2007. Given the fall in property prices, we are concerned about buyers who have purchased properties under the DPS.
There were 10,450 units under the DPS as at 30 November 2008. Of these units, 4,560 units (43.6 percent) were expected to be completed in 2009, 2,540 (24.3 percent) in 2010 and 1,934 (18.5 percent) in 2011. We will first focus on the 4,560 units in 2009. As construction of private properties normally take about three years, it is most likely that the 4,560 units were bought at 2006 prices. In 2006, the URA residential property price index went up by 9.8 percent. The 2,540 units to be completed in 2010 would have been bought at 2007 prices, when the URA price index went up by a hefty 28.1 percent. We believe that those who bought at 2006 prices will still be able to make a small, if any, profit when completion occurs in 2009. However, those who bought in 2007 and later will encounter losses as the prices had risen by huge amounts and price correction would take place in 2009.
Furthermore, banks are tightening credit and buyers may have difficulties securing loans. Therefore buyers, who are unable to obtain loans, may have to sell their properties at lower prices in the open market or forfeit their downpayments and return the properties to the developers. The developers would have to sell their properties at much lower prices to entice buyers as the downturn in the property market continues. This supply of properties from the DPS will add further pressure to the falling property prices.
Response from the government. Due to the economic uncertainties, in December 2008, the government announced that no new sites will be added to the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for the first half (1H) of 2009. Moreover, it has reduced the supply of commercial space and will not have new supply of private residential units from government agencies, outside the GLS Programme, for We feel that the measures are timely as the response to the GLS Programme has been poor for 2008. This will not add to the supply of land in the market and further depress prices. At the same time, we note that our property prices have not risen to the correspondingly high levels that are prevalent in the United States.
Price to book graph. In our last report in October 2008, we plotted a graph of price to book ratio of four major property companies, City Development, Keppel Land, CapitaLand and Allgreen.
We note that the troughs may have been reached in 2008 as the stock prices reflect the price to book ratios of 0.3 to 1.3 for the four companies. We believe that the stock prices would have taken into account the property price corrections in 2009.
Based on the graph above, there is potential for stock prices to recover as the price to book ratios can reach higher levels during periods of recovery.
Our call for the sector as a whole. The property stocks have fallen drastically in 2008 as investors anticipate a gloomy outlook for the property market in 2008 and 2009. The release of the 1Q 2009 URA property price index confirmed our weak expectations for property prices. We expect property prices to drop further in 2009 due to the weak global economy. Property prices will rise after the recovery of the economy, which is expected to be in 2010.
Furthermore, property stocks have continued to trade at sharp discounts to both their net tangible asset values and realisable net asset values (RNAVs). We felt that valuations are looking attractive after the huge falls. Investors, who adopt a longterm view, can hold the stocks for capital gains. Overall, we maintain the neutral view on the property sector.
Stocks that we cover. We have listed the current recommendations for the stocks under our coverage. We will be reviewing the target prices for the stocks when the companies report their financial results in February 2009.
Property Companies Recommendation
Ho Bee 0.395
Target price 2.08
SC Global 0.555
Target price 3.03
Sing Holdings 0.185
Target price 0.92
Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 6.3% in Core Central Region, 5.5% in Rest of Central Region and 4.7% in Outside Central Region. The fall is the largest in the Core Central Region, which would consist of homes in the luxury segment. This is followed by Rest of Central Region, which is the mid-end segment, and Outside Central Region, which is the mass market segment. Wealthy locals and foreigners have been cautious in buying high-end homes due to the negative impact from the global financial crisis. The drop is less for the mass-market as prices have not risen as sharply as high-end homes. Moreover, there is some support from HDB flat prices, which have risen to an all-time high.
Due to the slowdown in the global economy and decreasing purchasing power of property buyers, we are expecting high-end, mid-end and mass-market home prices to decrease by 20% to 25%, 15% to 20% and 10% to 15% respectively for 2009.
At the same time, HDB published the flash estimate for the public housing resale price index for 4Q 2008. The index rose by 1.5 percent to 139.5. This is much lower than the 4.2% increase in 3Q 2008. The HDB market remains strong due to demand from young married couples as well as permanent residents who are buying their own flats due to the rise in rental costs. In fact, the strong demand for HDB homes can be seen from the large number of applications, which can amount to two or three times, for the limited number of new HDB flats.
In summary, we anticipate that private residential property prices will continue to fall in 2009. Recovery will take place after we have seen signs of recovery in the global economy.
Deterioration in the Singapore economy. On 2 January 2009, the government released the advance estimates for the Singapore economy in 2008. For the fourth quarter of 2008, gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 2.6 percent in real terms over the same period in 2008. In fact, real GDP decreased by 12.5 percent compared to the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized quarter-onquarter basis. For the whole of 2008, GDP grew by only 1.5 percent compared to 7.7 percent in 2007.
The slowdown in the economy was mainly caused by the contraction of 3.7 percent by the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the services and construction sectors reported decreases in the growth rates to 5.3 percent and 17.3 percent respectively.
The weak economy is due to the sharp slowdown in global demand, trade & investments.
At the same time, the government cut its estimates and expects GDP in 2009 to be between –2.0 percent and 1.0 percent. This was lower than its November 2008 forecast of –1.0 percent and 2.0 percent.
Moreover, we expect retrenchments and wage cuts to continue to take place for the early part of this year as companies slash costs to ensure their survival during the slowing economy. With the weakness in the economy and the increase in unemployment, property buyers are likely to remain cautious. We maintain our bearish outlook for sales volume and prices in 2009.
Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS). Under the DPS, buyers can purchase uncompleted residential properties by paying 10 to 20 percent downpayment to the developer. The remaining 80 to 90 percent of the purchase price has to be paid only when the temporary occupation permits of the properties are issued. This scheme was introduced in October 1997 and withdrawn in October 2007. Given the fall in property prices, we are concerned about buyers who have purchased properties under the DPS.
There were 10,450 units under the DPS as at 30 November 2008. Of these units, 4,560 units (43.6 percent) were expected to be completed in 2009, 2,540 (24.3 percent) in 2010 and 1,934 (18.5 percent) in 2011. We will first focus on the 4,560 units in 2009. As construction of private properties normally take about three years, it is most likely that the 4,560 units were bought at 2006 prices. In 2006, the URA residential property price index went up by 9.8 percent. The 2,540 units to be completed in 2010 would have been bought at 2007 prices, when the URA price index went up by a hefty 28.1 percent. We believe that those who bought at 2006 prices will still be able to make a small, if any, profit when completion occurs in 2009. However, those who bought in 2007 and later will encounter losses as the prices had risen by huge amounts and price correction would take place in 2009.
Furthermore, banks are tightening credit and buyers may have difficulties securing loans. Therefore buyers, who are unable to obtain loans, may have to sell their properties at lower prices in the open market or forfeit their downpayments and return the properties to the developers. The developers would have to sell their properties at much lower prices to entice buyers as the downturn in the property market continues. This supply of properties from the DPS will add further pressure to the falling property prices.
Response from the government. Due to the economic uncertainties, in December 2008, the government announced that no new sites will be added to the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for the first half (1H) of 2009. Moreover, it has reduced the supply of commercial space and will not have new supply of private residential units from government agencies, outside the GLS Programme, for We feel that the measures are timely as the response to the GLS Programme has been poor for 2008. This will not add to the supply of land in the market and further depress prices. At the same time, we note that our property prices have not risen to the correspondingly high levels that are prevalent in the United States.
Price to book graph. In our last report in October 2008, we plotted a graph of price to book ratio of four major property companies, City Development, Keppel Land, CapitaLand and Allgreen.
We note that the troughs may have been reached in 2008 as the stock prices reflect the price to book ratios of 0.3 to 1.3 for the four companies. We believe that the stock prices would have taken into account the property price corrections in 2009.
Based on the graph above, there is potential for stock prices to recover as the price to book ratios can reach higher levels during periods of recovery.
Our call for the sector as a whole. The property stocks have fallen drastically in 2008 as investors anticipate a gloomy outlook for the property market in 2008 and 2009. The release of the 1Q 2009 URA property price index confirmed our weak expectations for property prices. We expect property prices to drop further in 2009 due to the weak global economy. Property prices will rise after the recovery of the economy, which is expected to be in 2010.
Furthermore, property stocks have continued to trade at sharp discounts to both their net tangible asset values and realisable net asset values (RNAVs). We felt that valuations are looking attractive after the huge falls. Investors, who adopt a longterm view, can hold the stocks for capital gains. Overall, we maintain the neutral view on the property sector.
Stocks that we cover. We have listed the current recommendations for the stocks under our coverage. We will be reviewing the target prices for the stocks when the companies report their financial results in February 2009.
Property Companies Recommendation
Ho Bee 0.395
Target price 2.08
SC Global 0.555
Target price 3.03
Sing Holdings 0.185
Target price 0.92
Lighter volume leading to changes in postal routes
Think you know what time your mail arrives each day? Think again.
The U.S. Postal Service is reviewing all its city routes nationwide and changing some of them to cut costs because mail volume is dropping during the recession.
Nationwide, the changes are expected to affect as many as 50 million addresses on 85,000 urban routes. Rural routes already get reviewed each year,
"It should be pretty seamless to customers, except they could possibly see a difference in delivery times," said Al Eakle, a USPS spokesman for the Indiana District.
The route reviews began last month and should be completed by the end of February, Eakle said Thursday. Some customers already may be seeing changes as parts of some routes are consolidated into others.
Some letter carriers are saddened by the changes. In Bloomington, Darlene Meyer said she has watched children grow up, kept an eye on homebound customers and returned escaped pets during the nine years she's delivered her route.
"It's like losing part of my family," Meyer told The Herald Times of Bloomington.
Eakle said the economic downtown affects the Postal Service just as it would any enterprise because businesses have reduced mailings to cut expenses. Nationally, mail volume fell by 9.5 billion pieces, or 4.5 percent, during the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
An agreement between postal officials and the National Association of Letter Carriers allows the Postal Service to expedite the changes, Eakle said. Rather than laying off carriers, the Postal Service has been offering early retirement to thin the ranks.
Postmaster General John Potter has said that after losing $2.8 billion in the last fiscal year, the Postal Service would continue to cut overtime and working hours. The cost of a first-class stamp rose to 42 cents last May and a new increase based on the rate of inflation will occur in May.
The U.S. Postal Service is reviewing all its city routes nationwide and changing some of them to cut costs because mail volume is dropping during the recession.
Nationwide, the changes are expected to affect as many as 50 million addresses on 85,000 urban routes. Rural routes already get reviewed each year,
"It should be pretty seamless to customers, except they could possibly see a difference in delivery times," said Al Eakle, a USPS spokesman for the Indiana District.
The route reviews began last month and should be completed by the end of February, Eakle said Thursday. Some customers already may be seeing changes as parts of some routes are consolidated into others.
Some letter carriers are saddened by the changes. In Bloomington, Darlene Meyer said she has watched children grow up, kept an eye on homebound customers and returned escaped pets during the nine years she's delivered her route.
"It's like losing part of my family," Meyer told The Herald Times of Bloomington.
Eakle said the economic downtown affects the Postal Service just as it would any enterprise because businesses have reduced mailings to cut expenses. Nationally, mail volume fell by 9.5 billion pieces, or 4.5 percent, during the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
An agreement between postal officials and the National Association of Letter Carriers allows the Postal Service to expedite the changes, Eakle said. Rather than laying off carriers, the Postal Service has been offering early retirement to thin the ranks.
Postmaster General John Potter has said that after losing $2.8 billion in the last fiscal year, the Postal Service would continue to cut overtime and working hours. The cost of a first-class stamp rose to 42 cents last May and a new increase based on the rate of inflation will occur in May.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
DOW to 4,000, 8 REALLY SCARY PREDICTION
Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.
1. Nouriel Roubini
Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming. We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse. Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010. For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.
2. Bill Gross
The founder of bond giant Pimco warned of a subprime contagion back in July 2007. While 2008 will probably be best known as the year that global stock markets had their values cut in half, it was really much, much more. It was a year in which every major asset class - stocks, real estate, commodities, even high-yield bonds - suffered significant double-digit percentage losses, resulting in the destruction of over $30 trillion of paper wealth. To blame this on subprime mortgages alone would be to dismiss an era of leveraging that encompassed derivative structures of all types, embodying a belief that economic growth was always and everywhere a certainty and that asset prices never go down. As 2008 nears its conclusion, we as an investor nation have been forced to face a new reality. Wall Street and Main Street are fearful that a recession may be replaced by a near depression. The outcome essentially depends on the ability of the Obama administration to rejuvenate capitalism's "animal spirits" by substituting the benevolent fist of government for the now invisible hand of Adam Smith. Federal spending and guarantees in the trillions of dollars will be required to fill the gap created by the deleveraging of private balance sheets. In turn, lenders and investors alike must begin to assume risk as opposed to stuffing money in modern-day investment mattresses. The process will take time. Twelve months of the Obama Nation will not be sufficient to heal the damage of a half-century's excessive leverage. The downsizing of private risk positions - replaced by government credit - will also result in reduced profit margins and a slower rate of earnings growth after the bottom is reached. Investors need to recognize these titanic shifts in market and public policies and be content with single-digit returns in future years. Perhaps the most lucrative pockets of value are in high-quality corporate bonds and preferred stocks of banks and financial institutions that have partnered with the government in programs such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). While their profitability may be restricted, their ability to pay interest and preferred dividends should be unhampered. Above all, stick to high-quality companies and asset classes. The road to recovery will be treacherous.
3. Robert Shiller
The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles. We don't currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today's environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven't seen since then. First of all, there's the magnitude of the stock market's move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we've had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we've seen 0% interest rates. We've actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn't happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn't happened since. And the list goes on: Our numbers don't go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it's a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression. I'm optimistic that we'll do better this time, but I'm worried that we're vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I'm worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that's difficult to
restore. No matter what we do, we're trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we're back again. That's a little hard to manage. In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It's a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that's the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there's a real chance it will go up a lot. But that's very risky. It could easily fall by half again.
4. Sheila Bair
The FDIC chairman has been pushing to get mortgage relief for borrowers. My 87-year-old mother is a native Kansan who grew up in the throes of the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl. She is a classic "buy and hold" investor who would make Warren Buffett proud. Her investment returns always exceeded those of my father, to his eternal consternation. He actively traded his stocks and produced decent returns, but nothing like those my mother achieved by simply buying stocks of companies she understood and liked, and then holding onto them. So I have become a strong advocate of the "basics" when it comes to investing: Do your homework, invest in securities you understand, and then hold on. As a government policymaker, I advocate informed investment decisions - not only to protect investors from losses but also because the efficient functioning of our capital markets relies on investors' doing their homework. The private-label mortgage-backed securitization markets are a prime example. Trillions of dollars of investor money funded millions of mortgages that borrowers had little chance of repaying. Investors relied heavily on ratings agencies, which in turn relied too heavily on mathematical models instead of analyzing the underlying loans. To be sure, borrowers, brokers, lenders, securitizers, as well as state and federal regulators, all bear responsibility for the widespread deterioration in lending standards. But the problem was compounded by the fact that those ultimately holding the risk - the investors - did not look behind their investments at the quality of the mortgages themselves. If they had, they would have seen high loan-to-value ratios, little income documentation, burdensome fees, and steep payment resets. They would have seen mortgages unaffordable from the beginning, originated based on the assumption that home prices would continue to rise and borrowers would refinance. Of course, we now know that as home prices began to depreciate, borrowers were unable to refinance, leading to massive foreclosures and further price declines. This self-reinforcing downward spiral is at the core of the economic problems we face today. We will dig out of this. And when we do, I hope for a back-to-basics society - where banks and other lending institutions promote real growth and long-term value for the economy, and where American families have rediscovered the peace of mind of financial security achieved through saving and investing wisely. We need to return to the culture of thrift that my mother and her generation learned the hard way through years of hardship and deprivation. Those are lessons learned that the current crisis is teaching us again.
5. Jim Rogers
The commodities guru predicted two years ago that the credit bubble would devastate Wall Street. We are in a period of forced liquidation, which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 150 years. The fact that it's historic doesn't make it any more fun, of course. But it is a pretty interesting time when there is forced selling of everything with no regard for facts or fundamentals at all. Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The fundamentals of GM are impaired. The fundamentals of Citigroup are impaired. Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities. Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now. Nobody's going to get a loan to open a zinc or a lead mine. Meanwhile, every day the supply of commodities shrinks more and more. Nobody can invest in productive capacity, even if he wants to. You're going to see gigantic shortages developing over the next few years. The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they've been in 50 years. This may turn into the Great Depression II. But if and when we come out of this, commodities are going to lead the way, just as they did in the 1970s when everything was a disaster and commodities went through the roof. What I've been buying recently is agricultural commodities. I've also been buying more Chinese stocks. And I'm buying stocks in Taiwan for the first time in my life. It looks as if there's finally going to be peace in Taiwan after 60 years, and Taiwanese companies are going to benefit from the long-term growth of China. I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I'm now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That's the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back. In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive. Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen. And if it gets that low and I'm still solvent, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot. The key in times like these is to stay solvent so you can load up when opportunity comes.
6. John Train
The author and chairman of Montrose Advisors has 50 years of Wall Street experience. I presume that although we are in a severe recession it will not decompose into a full-scale depression, because that is what everyone is afraid of and desperate to avoid. Wall Street likes to say that the market has anticipated five of the last three recessions - the point being that a market crash frightens the authorities into taking necessary action. Keynes observed that pragmatic businessmen often could not imagine that they were the slaves of defunct economists, but ironically, never is this more true than today of Keynes himself. So we run a huge deficit to postpone the worst. That means inflation, so bonds are unsatisfactory. Investment opportunity is the difference between the reality and the perception. And since many equities are priced as though a depression might be on the way, many of them are attractively priced. One approach I am comfortable with is owning shares in wonderful businesses that do well in all circumstances - Johnson & Johnson and the like. They rarely fly out of the park, but provide long, steady gains that will get you where you want to go. They often have huge cash hoards, e.g., Cisco, Apple, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway, whose war chests exceed $20 billion. Or Hewlett-Packard, Google, Intel, or IBM, all in the $10 billion league. Such companies can take advantage of a weak market just as private investors would, with the difference that they know very well how much to pay for what fits their product line. In the present environment I favor companies that can prosper in the lean years ahead. So, not Saks, but Wal-Mart; not Neiman Marcus, but Dollar General. Or specialists, such as Fastenal, Monsanto, or Schlumberger. And when should you buy? In or near what I call the Time of Deepest Gloom, if you can spot it.
7. Meredith Whitney
The Oppenheimer & Co. analyst was among the first to warn that the big banks had big problems. What the federal government has done so far- with TARP, bailing out Citigroup, etc. - has stemmed the bleeding, but what it hasn't done is fundamentally alter the landscape. Yes, there's been a tremendous amount of capital thrown into the system, but my concern is that it's just going to plug the holes. It's not going to create new liquidity, which is what the system so desperately needs. When the government announces these plans, investors get excited and hopeful. But details have been slim, and while I appreciate the government saying, "We've been wrong here. Let's try something different," the strategy changes have not solved anything. So far we've had TARP 1.0, TARP 2.0, and TARP 3.0, and I'm certain there will be a 4.0, a 5.0, and a 6.0. There has to be, because the companies cannot raise the capital they need, which means that the default provider of capital has to be the federal government. What happens in 2009? Frankly, it's hard for me to predict what's going to happen next week, never mind next year. What I will say is that I expect all these banks to be back in the market looking for more capital. We'll also have a wholesale restructuring of our banking system, probably toward the end of 2009. There will be banks getting smaller, banks going away, and banks consolidating. At the same time, though, I think you'll see more new banks created. We've already seen more applications. And it's a great idea: You start with a clean balance sheet and make loans today with today's information. Plus, right now you've got a yield curve that's good for lending. I think the overall economy will be worse than people expect. The biggest issue will be consumer spending. If 2008 was characterized by the market impacting the economy, then 2009 will be about the economy impacting the market. It's already started.
8. Wilbur Ross
The billionaire chairman of W.L. Ross & Co. specializes in turning around troubled companies. We are clearly in a serious recession, and more aggressive action is needed to turn things around. The federal government initially underestimated the scale of the mortgage and housing crises and later panicked into an ever-changing series of ad hoc measures that at best dealt with some of the effects of the original crises. But homeowners have now lost $5 trillion, and 12 million families have mortgages in excess of the value of their homes. Therefore the economy will not stabilize until mortgages are adjusted down to the value of homes, with affordable payment schedules, and until new mortgages become available across the home-price spectrum. Till then, the poverty effect of falling house prices and unemployment moving up toward 7% will hold consumer spending back from its former 70% contribution to our economy. I'm optimistic about the choices that President-elect Obama has made for his economic team, and I've got some suggestions for what they should do. Hopefully the new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, will incentivize lenders to restructure mortgages by guaranteeing half of the reduced principal amount and sharing among the government, homeowners, and lenders any subsequent appreciation. Lenders would gain liquidity by selling the Treasury-guaranteed portion of the loan, and government would receive annual insurance premiums to further protect it against loss. That would cost taxpayers nothing now and probably little or nothing in the future. Addressing unemployment is paramount. Detroit needs government support in order to implement independently verified concessions from all stakeholders - not just labor - which are sufficiently large to permit profitable operations even if auto sales remain as low as 11 million cars per year. A pre-negotiated bankruptcy may be necessary in order to implement the restructuring, but both the industry and the economy are too fragile to withstand the domino effect that a free-fall bankruptcy would have on a car company, its dealers, and its suppliers. In addition, to avoid reversal of the 242,000 jobs created by state and local governments in the past 12 months, Washington should provide or guarantee funding for sorely needed infrastructure projects that would create immediate construction jobs and meaningful amounts of permanent jobs. If President Obama promptly and decisively resolves these problems, whether or not he adopts my recommendations, and restores public confidence, he can end the recession by early 2010. If not, the economy will languish for a long time. Given the economic uncertainty, investors who are too worried to buy equities might consider tax-exempt bonds with yields around 6%, equivalent to almost 10% before federal, state, and local taxes. Investors who want to hedge the risk that federal deficits might lead to longer-term inflation and drive up interest rates, causing these bonds to decline, might buy some TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities, as well. TIPS are U.S. Treasury bonds whose principal amount varies with consumer price indexes to provide holders with a rate of return in constant dollars. TIPS prices currently imply near-term deflation, and that means that they would appreciate in value if inflation comes back. At my firm, we've been starting to invest in some distressed financial companies. That seems as if it will work out reasonably well, because they're very, very cheap. The financial services sector is kind of where the problems started, and it's probably going to need to be fixed in order for the problems to be resolved. We see opportunities there.
1. Nouriel Roubini
Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming. We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse. Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010. For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.
2. Bill Gross
The founder of bond giant Pimco warned of a subprime contagion back in July 2007. While 2008 will probably be best known as the year that global stock markets had their values cut in half, it was really much, much more. It was a year in which every major asset class - stocks, real estate, commodities, even high-yield bonds - suffered significant double-digit percentage losses, resulting in the destruction of over $30 trillion of paper wealth. To blame this on subprime mortgages alone would be to dismiss an era of leveraging that encompassed derivative structures of all types, embodying a belief that economic growth was always and everywhere a certainty and that asset prices never go down. As 2008 nears its conclusion, we as an investor nation have been forced to face a new reality. Wall Street and Main Street are fearful that a recession may be replaced by a near depression. The outcome essentially depends on the ability of the Obama administration to rejuvenate capitalism's "animal spirits" by substituting the benevolent fist of government for the now invisible hand of Adam Smith. Federal spending and guarantees in the trillions of dollars will be required to fill the gap created by the deleveraging of private balance sheets. In turn, lenders and investors alike must begin to assume risk as opposed to stuffing money in modern-day investment mattresses. The process will take time. Twelve months of the Obama Nation will not be sufficient to heal the damage of a half-century's excessive leverage. The downsizing of private risk positions - replaced by government credit - will also result in reduced profit margins and a slower rate of earnings growth after the bottom is reached. Investors need to recognize these titanic shifts in market and public policies and be content with single-digit returns in future years. Perhaps the most lucrative pockets of value are in high-quality corporate bonds and preferred stocks of banks and financial institutions that have partnered with the government in programs such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). While their profitability may be restricted, their ability to pay interest and preferred dividends should be unhampered. Above all, stick to high-quality companies and asset classes. The road to recovery will be treacherous.
3. Robert Shiller
The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles. We don't currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today's environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven't seen since then. First of all, there's the magnitude of the stock market's move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we've had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we've seen 0% interest rates. We've actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn't happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn't happened since. And the list goes on: Our numbers don't go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it's a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression. I'm optimistic that we'll do better this time, but I'm worried that we're vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I'm worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that's difficult to
restore. No matter what we do, we're trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we're back again. That's a little hard to manage. In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It's a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that's the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there's a real chance it will go up a lot. But that's very risky. It could easily fall by half again.
4. Sheila Bair
The FDIC chairman has been pushing to get mortgage relief for borrowers. My 87-year-old mother is a native Kansan who grew up in the throes of the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl. She is a classic "buy and hold" investor who would make Warren Buffett proud. Her investment returns always exceeded those of my father, to his eternal consternation. He actively traded his stocks and produced decent returns, but nothing like those my mother achieved by simply buying stocks of companies she understood and liked, and then holding onto them. So I have become a strong advocate of the "basics" when it comes to investing: Do your homework, invest in securities you understand, and then hold on. As a government policymaker, I advocate informed investment decisions - not only to protect investors from losses but also because the efficient functioning of our capital markets relies on investors' doing their homework. The private-label mortgage-backed securitization markets are a prime example. Trillions of dollars of investor money funded millions of mortgages that borrowers had little chance of repaying. Investors relied heavily on ratings agencies, which in turn relied too heavily on mathematical models instead of analyzing the underlying loans. To be sure, borrowers, brokers, lenders, securitizers, as well as state and federal regulators, all bear responsibility for the widespread deterioration in lending standards. But the problem was compounded by the fact that those ultimately holding the risk - the investors - did not look behind their investments at the quality of the mortgages themselves. If they had, they would have seen high loan-to-value ratios, little income documentation, burdensome fees, and steep payment resets. They would have seen mortgages unaffordable from the beginning, originated based on the assumption that home prices would continue to rise and borrowers would refinance. Of course, we now know that as home prices began to depreciate, borrowers were unable to refinance, leading to massive foreclosures and further price declines. This self-reinforcing downward spiral is at the core of the economic problems we face today. We will dig out of this. And when we do, I hope for a back-to-basics society - where banks and other lending institutions promote real growth and long-term value for the economy, and where American families have rediscovered the peace of mind of financial security achieved through saving and investing wisely. We need to return to the culture of thrift that my mother and her generation learned the hard way through years of hardship and deprivation. Those are lessons learned that the current crisis is teaching us again.
5. Jim Rogers
The commodities guru predicted two years ago that the credit bubble would devastate Wall Street. We are in a period of forced liquidation, which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 150 years. The fact that it's historic doesn't make it any more fun, of course. But it is a pretty interesting time when there is forced selling of everything with no regard for facts or fundamentals at all. Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The fundamentals of GM are impaired. The fundamentals of Citigroup are impaired. Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities. Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now. Nobody's going to get a loan to open a zinc or a lead mine. Meanwhile, every day the supply of commodities shrinks more and more. Nobody can invest in productive capacity, even if he wants to. You're going to see gigantic shortages developing over the next few years. The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they've been in 50 years. This may turn into the Great Depression II. But if and when we come out of this, commodities are going to lead the way, just as they did in the 1970s when everything was a disaster and commodities went through the roof. What I've been buying recently is agricultural commodities. I've also been buying more Chinese stocks. And I'm buying stocks in Taiwan for the first time in my life. It looks as if there's finally going to be peace in Taiwan after 60 years, and Taiwanese companies are going to benefit from the long-term growth of China. I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I'm now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That's the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back. In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive. Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen. And if it gets that low and I'm still solvent, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot. The key in times like these is to stay solvent so you can load up when opportunity comes.
6. John Train
The author and chairman of Montrose Advisors has 50 years of Wall Street experience. I presume that although we are in a severe recession it will not decompose into a full-scale depression, because that is what everyone is afraid of and desperate to avoid. Wall Street likes to say that the market has anticipated five of the last three recessions - the point being that a market crash frightens the authorities into taking necessary action. Keynes observed that pragmatic businessmen often could not imagine that they were the slaves of defunct economists, but ironically, never is this more true than today of Keynes himself. So we run a huge deficit to postpone the worst. That means inflation, so bonds are unsatisfactory. Investment opportunity is the difference between the reality and the perception. And since many equities are priced as though a depression might be on the way, many of them are attractively priced. One approach I am comfortable with is owning shares in wonderful businesses that do well in all circumstances - Johnson & Johnson and the like. They rarely fly out of the park, but provide long, steady gains that will get you where you want to go. They often have huge cash hoards, e.g., Cisco, Apple, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway, whose war chests exceed $20 billion. Or Hewlett-Packard, Google, Intel, or IBM, all in the $10 billion league. Such companies can take advantage of a weak market just as private investors would, with the difference that they know very well how much to pay for what fits their product line. In the present environment I favor companies that can prosper in the lean years ahead. So, not Saks, but Wal-Mart; not Neiman Marcus, but Dollar General. Or specialists, such as Fastenal, Monsanto, or Schlumberger. And when should you buy? In or near what I call the Time of Deepest Gloom, if you can spot it.
7. Meredith Whitney
The Oppenheimer & Co. analyst was among the first to warn that the big banks had big problems. What the federal government has done so far- with TARP, bailing out Citigroup, etc. - has stemmed the bleeding, but what it hasn't done is fundamentally alter the landscape. Yes, there's been a tremendous amount of capital thrown into the system, but my concern is that it's just going to plug the holes. It's not going to create new liquidity, which is what the system so desperately needs. When the government announces these plans, investors get excited and hopeful. But details have been slim, and while I appreciate the government saying, "We've been wrong here. Let's try something different," the strategy changes have not solved anything. So far we've had TARP 1.0, TARP 2.0, and TARP 3.0, and I'm certain there will be a 4.0, a 5.0, and a 6.0. There has to be, because the companies cannot raise the capital they need, which means that the default provider of capital has to be the federal government. What happens in 2009? Frankly, it's hard for me to predict what's going to happen next week, never mind next year. What I will say is that I expect all these banks to be back in the market looking for more capital. We'll also have a wholesale restructuring of our banking system, probably toward the end of 2009. There will be banks getting smaller, banks going away, and banks consolidating. At the same time, though, I think you'll see more new banks created. We've already seen more applications. And it's a great idea: You start with a clean balance sheet and make loans today with today's information. Plus, right now you've got a yield curve that's good for lending. I think the overall economy will be worse than people expect. The biggest issue will be consumer spending. If 2008 was characterized by the market impacting the economy, then 2009 will be about the economy impacting the market. It's already started.
8. Wilbur Ross
The billionaire chairman of W.L. Ross & Co. specializes in turning around troubled companies. We are clearly in a serious recession, and more aggressive action is needed to turn things around. The federal government initially underestimated the scale of the mortgage and housing crises and later panicked into an ever-changing series of ad hoc measures that at best dealt with some of the effects of the original crises. But homeowners have now lost $5 trillion, and 12 million families have mortgages in excess of the value of their homes. Therefore the economy will not stabilize until mortgages are adjusted down to the value of homes, with affordable payment schedules, and until new mortgages become available across the home-price spectrum. Till then, the poverty effect of falling house prices and unemployment moving up toward 7% will hold consumer spending back from its former 70% contribution to our economy. I'm optimistic about the choices that President-elect Obama has made for his economic team, and I've got some suggestions for what they should do. Hopefully the new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, will incentivize lenders to restructure mortgages by guaranteeing half of the reduced principal amount and sharing among the government, homeowners, and lenders any subsequent appreciation. Lenders would gain liquidity by selling the Treasury-guaranteed portion of the loan, and government would receive annual insurance premiums to further protect it against loss. That would cost taxpayers nothing now and probably little or nothing in the future. Addressing unemployment is paramount. Detroit needs government support in order to implement independently verified concessions from all stakeholders - not just labor - which are sufficiently large to permit profitable operations even if auto sales remain as low as 11 million cars per year. A pre-negotiated bankruptcy may be necessary in order to implement the restructuring, but both the industry and the economy are too fragile to withstand the domino effect that a free-fall bankruptcy would have on a car company, its dealers, and its suppliers. In addition, to avoid reversal of the 242,000 jobs created by state and local governments in the past 12 months, Washington should provide or guarantee funding for sorely needed infrastructure projects that would create immediate construction jobs and meaningful amounts of permanent jobs. If President Obama promptly and decisively resolves these problems, whether or not he adopts my recommendations, and restores public confidence, he can end the recession by early 2010. If not, the economy will languish for a long time. Given the economic uncertainty, investors who are too worried to buy equities might consider tax-exempt bonds with yields around 6%, equivalent to almost 10% before federal, state, and local taxes. Investors who want to hedge the risk that federal deficits might lead to longer-term inflation and drive up interest rates, causing these bonds to decline, might buy some TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities, as well. TIPS are U.S. Treasury bonds whose principal amount varies with consumer price indexes to provide holders with a rate of return in constant dollars. TIPS prices currently imply near-term deflation, and that means that they would appreciate in value if inflation comes back. At my firm, we've been starting to invest in some distressed financial companies. That seems as if it will work out reasonably well, because they're very, very cheap. The financial services sector is kind of where the problems started, and it's probably going to need to be fixed in order for the problems to be resolved. We see opportunities there.
Jim Rogers Says Massive inflation is Coming
We are going to have an inflation nightmare.
Whenever people have printed a lot of money, six months to two years later, you have terrible inflation.
People all over the world are printing money like mad.
Massive inflation is coming and the only way to protect yourself is to be out of paper assets and in hard assets like gold and other commodities. (US Treasury Rates)
Jim says he is currently in short term treasuries but expects to get out soon and go short more government long term bonds.
He also says commodities are still in a bull market, he has used this downturn to add to commodities, especially gold, and he expects to make the most money in agriculture in the years ahead.
Jim is buying commodities and Swiss Francs.
Jim says we should abolish the US Federal Reserve and the guys on Wall Street with the fancy cars need to learn to drive tractors and the farmers in the years ahead will be buying the fancy cars.
Jim also showed two gold coins he bought in Zurich. The woman interviewing him said individual investors are having a hard time getting gold coins to which Jim said that is often the sign of a top.
"There has been a run on gold..... The public, the odd lotters, are sometimes the last ones in.
Jim says Paulson, Bernanke and the "idiot at the NY Fed" are never right and making it worse because they are not letting people/banks fail. Jim thinks they could turn this into another depression. Jim brought up what happened in Japan and blamed it on not letting banks fail in Japan.
Jim, didn't Japan have massive deflation during that period where they let banks mark assets to market to show they failed?
Jim says "propping people up has never worked in the history of the World."
Jim says the competent people should be taking market share from the incompetent, but we are seeing the reverse due to government interaction. Banks that make bad loans are getting more money from the governments to make more bad loans rather than let them fail.
Jim says the inventory of food is the lowest in 50 years. There is a shortage of farmers, tractors, tractor tires, seeds, etc.. Too many stockbrokers, journalists and investment bankers.
Jim says the bottom in equities will come when the market goes up on bad news.
Whenever people have printed a lot of money, six months to two years later, you have terrible inflation.
People all over the world are printing money like mad.
Massive inflation is coming and the only way to protect yourself is to be out of paper assets and in hard assets like gold and other commodities. (US Treasury Rates)
Jim says he is currently in short term treasuries but expects to get out soon and go short more government long term bonds.
He also says commodities are still in a bull market, he has used this downturn to add to commodities, especially gold, and he expects to make the most money in agriculture in the years ahead.
Jim is buying commodities and Swiss Francs.
Jim says we should abolish the US Federal Reserve and the guys on Wall Street with the fancy cars need to learn to drive tractors and the farmers in the years ahead will be buying the fancy cars.
Jim also showed two gold coins he bought in Zurich. The woman interviewing him said individual investors are having a hard time getting gold coins to which Jim said that is often the sign of a top.
"There has been a run on gold..... The public, the odd lotters, are sometimes the last ones in.
Jim says Paulson, Bernanke and the "idiot at the NY Fed" are never right and making it worse because they are not letting people/banks fail. Jim thinks they could turn this into another depression. Jim brought up what happened in Japan and blamed it on not letting banks fail in Japan.
Jim, didn't Japan have massive deflation during that period where they let banks mark assets to market to show they failed?
Jim says "propping people up has never worked in the history of the World."
Jim says the competent people should be taking market share from the incompetent, but we are seeing the reverse due to government interaction. Banks that make bad loans are getting more money from the governments to make more bad loans rather than let them fail.
Jim says the inventory of food is the lowest in 50 years. There is a shortage of farmers, tractors, tractor tires, seeds, etc.. Too many stockbrokers, journalists and investment bankers.
Jim says the bottom in equities will come when the market goes up on bad news.
Jim Roger summary thoughts for 2009
Part 1 - Global recession will be long and deep.
He has not yet exited his US dollar positions, as he believes the current rally is an artificial one driven by short covering.
It could go longer and higher than anyone expects.
Reiterated his opinion that the US dollar is a flawed and maybe doomed currency.
We're going to have the worst recession since World War II.
Likely we'll see exchange controls at some point in the US.
Part 2 - Market correction is good for commodities.
The way to make money now is to buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired.
Not only are the fundamentals of commodities unimpaired, but they have been strengthened, as supply is going to take a serious hit across the board as a result of tight credit markets.
"Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now." In the 30's, commodities hit bottom first because there was no supply. The same thing happened in the 1970's - again because there was no supply.
Part 3 - China economic story still intact.
"Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908. You might have looked good in the short term...but who cares?" He bought more Chinese shares in Oct/Nov of this year. Also believes the fundamentals of China will come out of this recession unimpaired.
Part 4 - Inflation is coming
you'd better own real assets.
We're following the mistakes of Japan by bailing everyone out.
This is the first time in world history that every government in the world is printing money.
It will lead to much, much higher prices.
Don't sell your gold, cotton, or sugar, because prices will be much, much higher in a few years.
We are not experiencing deflation - this is forced liquidation. We're fighting the wrong battle by fighting deflation."
He has not yet exited his US dollar positions, as he believes the current rally is an artificial one driven by short covering.
It could go longer and higher than anyone expects.
Reiterated his opinion that the US dollar is a flawed and maybe doomed currency.
We're going to have the worst recession since World War II.
Likely we'll see exchange controls at some point in the US.
Part 2 - Market correction is good for commodities.
The way to make money now is to buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired.
Not only are the fundamentals of commodities unimpaired, but they have been strengthened, as supply is going to take a serious hit across the board as a result of tight credit markets.
"Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now." In the 30's, commodities hit bottom first because there was no supply. The same thing happened in the 1970's - again because there was no supply.
Part 3 - China economic story still intact.
"Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908. You might have looked good in the short term...but who cares?" He bought more Chinese shares in Oct/Nov of this year. Also believes the fundamentals of China will come out of this recession unimpaired.
Part 4 - Inflation is coming
you'd better own real assets.
We're following the mistakes of Japan by bailing everyone out.
This is the first time in world history that every government in the world is printing money.
It will lead to much, much higher prices.
Don't sell your gold, cotton, or sugar, because prices will be much, much higher in a few years.
We are not experiencing deflation - this is forced liquidation. We're fighting the wrong battle by fighting deflation."
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Ａ股＋Ｈ股
我貓王至今仍未正式對Ａ股市場展開詳盡的研究，原因之一．是工作時間不足夠；二．是在香港所找到的資訊不足；三．國內亦找不到可信的研究文獻。有報導謂 "如果國內股民開始炒港股，他們不會按炒A股的思維來炒港股，如果按炒A股的方法來炒港股的話，其失敗的可能性會很大。香港市場的監管和運作規律與A股市場是不同的，香港又沒有類似A股的漲停板或者跌停板限制，並且受到全球股市連動性影響特別大，而A股則是相對封閉性較強的市場。因此，他炒港股時會選擇那些大型藍籌H股，等它跌至低位時才考慮買入，並在獲得一定利潤時即便退出，不會長線持有。"
市場結構有點不同，分析思維當然有所分別，現在要說最簡單的市盈率法，香港或 "Ｈ"股的市盈率低得多，連帶香港幣值匯價貶值的考量，長線投資者一定會捨棄Ａ股選Ｈ股的。說到投機，最重要的是要瞭解什麼是趨勢，無論是Ａ股、Ｂ股、Ｈ股、外國股或期貨的操作，不知趨勢是何者也？就等於學武術者連馬步是什麼也不知？思維說是要改變實在不容易的， "天生易改，品性難移”，一旦習慣形成了，改變是難事，例如我們多以股票為工具的炒家，投入期指的操作時，也會方寸大亂！以我貓王的經驗來說，國內客戶的佣金真的比較容易賺，因為他們每每是以現價賺入的，事實上這真的是炒家所為，因為趨勢一旦形成，還是期待在低位買進的想法是不徹實際的。一般來說，我自己的買賣是傾向現價賺入的，但是在一些成交疏落的二三線上，買賣相差的價位可以很遠，過於衝動的搶購只會驚動莊家，引來莫名的沽售，相反，於06、07年的行情中，我們香港的一批老股民每每沾不到一些好處，因為股票價格一搶即上，沒有一點豪氣的股民根本擠身不下，事實上，在牛市第三期中，香港股市場除了本地莊家以外，國際的對沖基金大鱷、國內莊家、澳門莊家、台灣及東南亞資金等都在這裡大炒特炒，這時本地莊家已成為少數族群，我們不能以以往的思維探索港股了。我歸納了以下數個要點，相信這可以瞭解兩地市場分別之處，並可在各個行情階段中的操作方法：
１．香港市場容許兩天之後結算，孖展持倉十分普遍，於是很多莊家可能利用了交收時間的空檔、或減少孖展的利息負擔，於是，買入又沽出，因此，我們班老股民慣看股票都會出現升三天、回兩天的例子，這是莊家要資金回籠的關係，無形間亦做成市場形態的一個慣性，而國內的股票一般要賬戶有充足的金現才可以操作，所以有時回吐形態並不顯著；
２．國內的股票不能即日買賣，而且可操作的衍生工具不多，股票亦不可沽空，換言之，莊家要做上的時候，對著幹的炒家並不太多，於是，股價每每一去就沒有回頭，尤其是一些ＳＴ股尤甚；
３．在牛市第三期中，無論什麼市場，莊家不容許小戶較低位置購入股票，這時一些小型的二、三線股一天可以上漲數十個百份點，所以，一旦股價升穿突破點，股價即沒有回頭的機會，一回就可能大幅回吐，這時不追價買入，等到回吐可能以墮入陷阱了。
我貓王看很多股民都是牛市中段或未段加入炒家的行列的，慣性一面到的行為，我提議考慮是：應該在不同的行情中，以不同的思維操作，此外，莊家早已熟知散戶的心態，他們對技術分析比我們熟識，但散戶勝在走位靈活，他們捉弄不著我們。如果閣下要印證上述的分析是否正確，最好複查以往的圖例。而要說做淡倉的時候又是另一種思維，無論如何在個別股操作上，不能不考慮整體行情的考慮。
市場結構有點不同，分析思維當然有所分別，現在要說最簡單的市盈率法，香港或 "Ｈ"股的市盈率低得多，連帶香港幣值匯價貶值的考量，長線投資者一定會捨棄Ａ股選Ｈ股的。說到投機，最重要的是要瞭解什麼是趨勢，無論是Ａ股、Ｂ股、Ｈ股、外國股或期貨的操作，不知趨勢是何者也？就等於學武術者連馬步是什麼也不知？思維說是要改變實在不容易的， "天生易改，品性難移”，一旦習慣形成了，改變是難事，例如我們多以股票為工具的炒家，投入期指的操作時，也會方寸大亂！以我貓王的經驗來說，國內客戶的佣金真的比較容易賺，因為他們每每是以現價賺入的，事實上這真的是炒家所為，因為趨勢一旦形成，還是期待在低位買進的想法是不徹實際的。一般來說，我自己的買賣是傾向現價賺入的，但是在一些成交疏落的二三線上，買賣相差的價位可以很遠，過於衝動的搶購只會驚動莊家，引來莫名的沽售，相反，於06、07年的行情中，我們香港的一批老股民每每沾不到一些好處，因為股票價格一搶即上，沒有一點豪氣的股民根本擠身不下，事實上，在牛市第三期中，香港股市場除了本地莊家以外，國際的對沖基金大鱷、國內莊家、澳門莊家、台灣及東南亞資金等都在這裡大炒特炒，這時本地莊家已成為少數族群，我們不能以以往的思維探索港股了。我歸納了以下數個要點，相信這可以瞭解兩地市場分別之處，並可在各個行情階段中的操作方法：
１．香港市場容許兩天之後結算，孖展持倉十分普遍，於是很多莊家可能利用了交收時間的空檔、或減少孖展的利息負擔，於是，買入又沽出，因此，我們班老股民慣看股票都會出現升三天、回兩天的例子，這是莊家要資金回籠的關係，無形間亦做成市場形態的一個慣性，而國內的股票一般要賬戶有充足的金現才可以操作，所以有時回吐形態並不顯著；
２．國內的股票不能即日買賣，而且可操作的衍生工具不多，股票亦不可沽空，換言之，莊家要做上的時候，對著幹的炒家並不太多，於是，股價每每一去就沒有回頭，尤其是一些ＳＴ股尤甚；
３．在牛市第三期中，無論什麼市場，莊家不容許小戶較低位置購入股票，這時一些小型的二、三線股一天可以上漲數十個百份點，所以，一旦股價升穿突破點，股價即沒有回頭的機會，一回就可能大幅回吐，這時不追價買入，等到回吐可能以墮入陷阱了。
我貓王看很多股民都是牛市中段或未段加入炒家的行列的，慣性一面到的行為，我提議考慮是：應該在不同的行情中，以不同的思維操作，此外，莊家早已熟知散戶的心態，他們對技術分析比我們熟識，但散戶勝在走位靈活，他們捉弄不著我們。如果閣下要印證上述的分析是否正確，最好複查以往的圖例。而要說做淡倉的時候又是另一種思維，無論如何在個別股操作上，不能不考慮整體行情的考慮。
一些雜談
為2008年做過總結，輸錢，但因為早知錯，輸得不多。MPF 於25000點時全轉為保本，好聽叫做分散風險，實情是不像股票般有感情死手不放。這注錢會在更差的時候才做長線入市第一擊，但肯定不是現在，等恆指跌到極心動的水平才說吧。
手上的股票做了一個大清倉，原因之一當然是覺得經濟有排衰。美國之衰係人都知，早前講過，重點在於Age-liabilities mismatch 究竟有幾誇張，這方面的數據不是很齊全，仍在收集中。大家都知日本是一個老人國家，現時年齡中位數是42.6，另一老人國瑞士則是39.8，美國現在是37.9，中國則是32歲。不要看輕這幾歲，因為發達國家的出生率都低，醫療水平卻令人民壽命不斷提高，就算經濟不衰退，每個人要支付的退休開支不急速上升中，這必定會令非醫療disposable income 降低。再看這個2008的調查, 美國3億人入面有1.8億是working population，其中有7千萬是baby boomers，即今年44-62歲以上。沒有年齡歧視，這個年齡的人，大部份吃過大浪之後都無法再爬起來，看看日本當年的例子，你會發覺有點相似, 日本當年Age pyramid 最多的正是44歲左右的人。現在問題是，究竟這些44-62歲的baby boomers 的age-liabilities mismatch 有多少，如果是像新聞一樣誇張的話，內部消費必定會重創，問題長長的帶下去。除非這群人大部份都斷供，將問題轉移到銀行身上，這樣的後果是更嚴重的金融問題。坦白講現在資料還不是很足，之後會繼續跟進Age liabilities mismatch 的問題。
周圍都是說衰退，英國應是最差，BBC更預測將是1946年以來最差的一個衰退(1946年大量英國殖民地獨立)。
中國1/3 GDP由出口帶動，中資股中市值最大的都是金融股，保險不是我強項，自有高人分析；中資銀行和本地銀行有一個很根本的分別。內地以前每次加息都是加定期和貸款利息，活期利率長期都是不變的0.72%，香港的則是活期、定期、貸款齊加。由於總會有人/公司雖要存活期，得出的結果，是每次對稱加息都會大幅增加銀行存貸息差，反之每次減息則是向銀行插一刀，這個和香港大部份銀行都不同。另一重點是，股票成交大幅減少，除了減少銀行非利息收入之外，也令息差收窄。原因是，你買股票幫襯銀行/證券行，它們都要為客戶開一個信託戶口，這個信託戶口一定是活期，當大部份人的資金放在股票中的時候，即是整個金融體系的定期存款減少，活期增加，這條數相當大，股票旺對銀行息差大有幫助，反之亦然。第三是壞賬，從事會計行業多年，內地假賬叫做見過不少，對非國企公司都說，我敢講問題遠比一般人所想的嚴重，而非上市公司又遠比上市公司嚴重。老實說，國內銀行在改革之後從未經歷過一個似樣的大考，我對一般銀行預測企業現金流的能力並沒有十足信心。所以，除增長性之外，中資銀行股的周期性其實遠比本地的高，這點我相信大部份股民也是沒有留意的。至於環球金融股，我只可說最差的時間未到，如果你看得懂它財報中的附注，應知道2009的首要任務是將大魔王繼續封印，相對而言，供不供股，有冇息派只是末節。我估大魔王破印而出的機會大概有20-30%，睇得明的的自然知，不明的也不需要問，寫匯豐惹來太多麻煩，反正我也不打算講了。
2009年最差的股票，我相信非港交所莫屬，以400億成交計，預期PE近20倍，在周期股中算是極昂貴水平。港交所的價值在於投票權，可以左右trading rules 使橫手，如收市競價和上市公司長期不能回購等。這招明顯是大戶想沽空而怕華人老闆低價增持食哂d 貨，此例一通，大市必有腥風血雨。
自己的組合只清剩兩隻，只留下新一年仍會有強勁業績增長、又食正國策的平價股票，一隻是中國製藥，另一隻是昆機。1093 年初受維生素C之前簽落的長單影響，平均售價拉低，頭3季VC售價只有8.5美元，頭3季增長放緩至133%.市場散單最多做過20美元，第4季行業簽下下年的長單，達11-14美元，今年增長超100%-150%應無難度，明年最差也應再有50%增長。
國內07年下半年強推醫保，即香港人講既強醫金，僱主僱員都要要供，供左睇醫生買藥有70% discount, 這樣必定大大提升醫藥需求。國內冇錢既人最大既問題係看病難，要推動內需，一定要推行多點醫療保障，d 人先敢消費。更重要的是，醫保是permanent 的政策，不像鐵路行業等只吃幾年高增長，如果政府宣佈供保險政府永久補貼7成，我相信中人壽一個月內可見100蚊。推動VC需求的主要因素之一是飼料需求，在中國的扶農政策之下，food multiplier effect 會令肉食需求有超過十年的high compound growth。風險是它的anti-monopoly 官司，但從另一方面看，世界上可以屈到可口石樂機既公司鳳毛麟角，依間係其中之一。
另一間昆明機床，亦受國內工業放緩影響，增長得20%，弱於中國製藥，但受國內增值稅改革幫助，鋼價大幅回落，加上本身有強大研發能力，競爭優勢明顯。它的強項是大型鏜銑床，國內屬最高水平，和國外差不多檔次的產品相比，平近50%，人民幣不再升值，將令它的出口競爭力和意欲提高。缺點是產品售後服務和穩定性仍比國外產品差，和沈機的整合將令售後服務方面改善。同埋我覺得盤數應該埋得好亂，剛上左ERP，依一兩年應係大量問題被發現的時間，財務和營運結合之後應有明顯得益。維斯在這隻有詳細分析，懶，唔寫了。
之前講過香港什麼都沒有，吃的是人流、物流、資金流。物流必死，只是用錢買時間，因為工業不在香港，貨流必會慢慢流走，南沙港鹽田洋山港很快便會遠遠超越維多利亞港。我說10年內香港轉口物流會完全消失，結果比朋友們笑，有咩可能會頂到10年? 我們要做的不是起什麼白癡大橋，珠西的貨流去南沙一定平過去香港。你知唔知南沙港的老闆是邊個? 李姓商人在南沙收平一平、在香港收貴一貴，兩面通吃玩price discrimination，吃虧的是香港吃貨流飯的所有人和行業。你唔做佢世界，就等如比佢繼續做我地世界。
資金流，金融業，極之周期性，之前講過了。要香港以全攻型走金融，恐怕未必行得通。金融必然要服務實體經濟，工商服務業都不行的話，實體型金融業便難以發展，剩下炒賣型金融業。炒賣型金融業的重點在一個騙字，說得好聽的是知識型略奪，好像銀行的金融毒品一樣，西洋鏡終有一天會被識破。我敢大膽講一句，在整個周期來說，香港的金融資金流是負的，即是非外國大鱷本地人在資金流佣金股務等賺回來的錢，會比每幾年一次外資騙走的錢少。在人流物流優勢不斷縮減的時候，如果還不放棄「以散戶以標靶的衍生產品」driven 的所謂金融中心路，香港將會出現負現金流。金融中心要搞，但要阻止外國大鱷大量不公平衍生工具賺散戶錢。既然這是合法開賭，為何要讓它不收0.1%印花? 為何不像馬會要收40%博彩幫有需要的人? 反正也有人上當，就收它1%，一防止散戶被騙，二是分它的行騙盈利一部份做有意義的事。當然這會令港交所大跌，在港交所角度，要谷成交自然要和輪商狼狽為奸，讓它繼續走這條路下去，和以前包庇鴉片煙館沒有分別。我敢講一句，如果政府不做李姓商人和港交所世界，10年之內，香港會出現結構性負現金流。
其實除了人流、物流和資金流之外，香港還有一個出路，便是知識流。香港的優勢在於制度完善，適合做地區總部，做control的工作。國內人樣樣都講關係，香港人始終比較工事工辦，不易收買，也比較flexible和了解外國人的需要，做control 的工作有大優勢。在做數的角度，香港找人做綜合賬和分析的確比國內容易得多，但知識流的規模比人、物、資金三流遠小，香港的前途，還看政府有沒有膽識打下長和系和港交所兩座大山。
手上的股票做了一個大清倉，原因之一當然是覺得經濟有排衰。美國之衰係人都知，早前講過，重點在於Age-liabilities mismatch 究竟有幾誇張，這方面的數據不是很齊全，仍在收集中。大家都知日本是一個老人國家，現時年齡中位數是42.6，另一老人國瑞士則是39.8，美國現在是37.9，中國則是32歲。不要看輕這幾歲，因為發達國家的出生率都低，醫療水平卻令人民壽命不斷提高，就算經濟不衰退，每個人要支付的退休開支不急速上升中，這必定會令非醫療disposable income 降低。再看這個2008的調查, 美國3億人入面有1.8億是working population，其中有7千萬是baby boomers，即今年44-62歲以上。沒有年齡歧視，這個年齡的人，大部份吃過大浪之後都無法再爬起來，看看日本當年的例子，你會發覺有點相似, 日本當年Age pyramid 最多的正是44歲左右的人。現在問題是，究竟這些44-62歲的baby boomers 的age-liabilities mismatch 有多少，如果是像新聞一樣誇張的話，內部消費必定會重創，問題長長的帶下去。除非這群人大部份都斷供，將問題轉移到銀行身上，這樣的後果是更嚴重的金融問題。坦白講現在資料還不是很足，之後會繼續跟進Age liabilities mismatch 的問題。
周圍都是說衰退，英國應是最差，BBC更預測將是1946年以來最差的一個衰退(1946年大量英國殖民地獨立)。
中國1/3 GDP由出口帶動，中資股中市值最大的都是金融股，保險不是我強項，自有高人分析；中資銀行和本地銀行有一個很根本的分別。內地以前每次加息都是加定期和貸款利息，活期利率長期都是不變的0.72%，香港的則是活期、定期、貸款齊加。由於總會有人/公司雖要存活期，得出的結果，是每次對稱加息都會大幅增加銀行存貸息差，反之每次減息則是向銀行插一刀，這個和香港大部份銀行都不同。另一重點是，股票成交大幅減少，除了減少銀行非利息收入之外，也令息差收窄。原因是，你買股票幫襯銀行/證券行，它們都要為客戶開一個信託戶口，這個信託戶口一定是活期，當大部份人的資金放在股票中的時候，即是整個金融體系的定期存款減少，活期增加，這條數相當大，股票旺對銀行息差大有幫助，反之亦然。第三是壞賬，從事會計行業多年，內地假賬叫做見過不少，對非國企公司都說，我敢講問題遠比一般人所想的嚴重，而非上市公司又遠比上市公司嚴重。老實說，國內銀行在改革之後從未經歷過一個似樣的大考，我對一般銀行預測企業現金流的能力並沒有十足信心。所以，除增長性之外，中資銀行股的周期性其實遠比本地的高，這點我相信大部份股民也是沒有留意的。至於環球金融股，我只可說最差的時間未到，如果你看得懂它財報中的附注，應知道2009的首要任務是將大魔王繼續封印，相對而言，供不供股，有冇息派只是末節。我估大魔王破印而出的機會大概有20-30%，睇得明的的自然知，不明的也不需要問，寫匯豐惹來太多麻煩，反正我也不打算講了。
2009年最差的股票，我相信非港交所莫屬，以400億成交計，預期PE近20倍，在周期股中算是極昂貴水平。港交所的價值在於投票權，可以左右trading rules 使橫手，如收市競價和上市公司長期不能回購等。這招明顯是大戶想沽空而怕華人老闆低價增持食哂d 貨，此例一通，大市必有腥風血雨。
自己的組合只清剩兩隻，只留下新一年仍會有強勁業績增長、又食正國策的平價股票，一隻是中國製藥，另一隻是昆機。1093 年初受維生素C之前簽落的長單影響，平均售價拉低，頭3季VC售價只有8.5美元，頭3季增長放緩至133%.市場散單最多做過20美元，第4季行業簽下下年的長單，達11-14美元，今年增長超100%-150%應無難度，明年最差也應再有50%增長。
國內07年下半年強推醫保，即香港人講既強醫金，僱主僱員都要要供，供左睇醫生買藥有70% discount, 這樣必定大大提升醫藥需求。國內冇錢既人最大既問題係看病難，要推動內需，一定要推行多點醫療保障，d 人先敢消費。更重要的是，醫保是permanent 的政策，不像鐵路行業等只吃幾年高增長，如果政府宣佈供保險政府永久補貼7成，我相信中人壽一個月內可見100蚊。推動VC需求的主要因素之一是飼料需求，在中國的扶農政策之下，food multiplier effect 會令肉食需求有超過十年的high compound growth。風險是它的anti-monopoly 官司，但從另一方面看，世界上可以屈到可口石樂機既公司鳳毛麟角，依間係其中之一。
另一間昆明機床，亦受國內工業放緩影響，增長得20%，弱於中國製藥，但受國內增值稅改革幫助，鋼價大幅回落，加上本身有強大研發能力，競爭優勢明顯。它的強項是大型鏜銑床，國內屬最高水平，和國外差不多檔次的產品相比，平近50%，人民幣不再升值，將令它的出口競爭力和意欲提高。缺點是產品售後服務和穩定性仍比國外產品差，和沈機的整合將令售後服務方面改善。同埋我覺得盤數應該埋得好亂，剛上左ERP，依一兩年應係大量問題被發現的時間，財務和營運結合之後應有明顯得益。維斯在這隻有詳細分析，懶，唔寫了。
之前講過香港什麼都沒有，吃的是人流、物流、資金流。物流必死，只是用錢買時間，因為工業不在香港，貨流必會慢慢流走，南沙港鹽田洋山港很快便會遠遠超越維多利亞港。我說10年內香港轉口物流會完全消失，結果比朋友們笑，有咩可能會頂到10年? 我們要做的不是起什麼白癡大橋，珠西的貨流去南沙一定平過去香港。你知唔知南沙港的老闆是邊個? 李姓商人在南沙收平一平、在香港收貴一貴，兩面通吃玩price discrimination，吃虧的是香港吃貨流飯的所有人和行業。你唔做佢世界，就等如比佢繼續做我地世界。
資金流，金融業，極之周期性，之前講過了。要香港以全攻型走金融，恐怕未必行得通。金融必然要服務實體經濟，工商服務業都不行的話，實體型金融業便難以發展，剩下炒賣型金融業。炒賣型金融業的重點在一個騙字，說得好聽的是知識型略奪，好像銀行的金融毒品一樣，西洋鏡終有一天會被識破。我敢大膽講一句，在整個周期來說，香港的金融資金流是負的，即是非外國大鱷本地人在資金流佣金股務等賺回來的錢，會比每幾年一次外資騙走的錢少。在人流物流優勢不斷縮減的時候，如果還不放棄「以散戶以標靶的衍生產品」driven 的所謂金融中心路，香港將會出現負現金流。金融中心要搞，但要阻止外國大鱷大量不公平衍生工具賺散戶錢。既然這是合法開賭，為何要讓它不收0.1%印花? 為何不像馬會要收40%博彩幫有需要的人? 反正也有人上當，就收它1%，一防止散戶被騙，二是分它的行騙盈利一部份做有意義的事。當然這會令港交所大跌，在港交所角度，要谷成交自然要和輪商狼狽為奸，讓它繼續走這條路下去，和以前包庇鴉片煙館沒有分別。我敢講一句，如果政府不做李姓商人和港交所世界，10年之內，香港會出現結構性負現金流。
其實除了人流、物流和資金流之外，香港還有一個出路，便是知識流。香港的優勢在於制度完善，適合做地區總部，做control的工作。國內人樣樣都講關係，香港人始終比較工事工辦，不易收買，也比較flexible和了解外國人的需要，做control 的工作有大優勢。在做數的角度，香港找人做綜合賬和分析的確比國內容易得多，但知識流的規模比人、物、資金三流遠小，香港的前途，還看政府有沒有膽識打下長和系和港交所兩座大山。
Monday, January 5, 2009
Master Investor - Warren Buffett
What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?
Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.
When do you deicide to invest in a firm?
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table.. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)
What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?
I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people even after selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.
Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?
Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.
When do you plan to retire?
I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!
Why do stock market crashes happen?
Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."
What are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?
I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Do you still hate Technology stocks?
With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."
How to think about Investing?
The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to say when you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."
What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?
I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have been observing the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.
Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street, New York?
Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.
You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started ?
My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.
People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?
I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards. I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.
I am a small time businessman from Dallas, Texas, what do I need to do to hit big time?
Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.
I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?
My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is.. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.
Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?
If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.
What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?
Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it.. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.
You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?
I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.
How do you make the Government eat out of your hands? How do you make them agree to everything you do?
If the strategy of a private enterprise matches the policy of the government, the government will be compelled to support you even if they don't like you.
Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.
When do you deicide to invest in a firm?
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table.. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)
What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?
I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people even after selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.
Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?
Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.
When do you plan to retire?
I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!
Why do stock market crashes happen?
Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."
What are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?
I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Do you still hate Technology stocks?
With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."
How to think about Investing?
The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to say when you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."
What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?
I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have been observing the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.
Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street, New York?
Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.
You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started ?
My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.
People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?
I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards. I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.
I am a small time businessman from Dallas, Texas, what do I need to do to hit big time?
Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.
I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?
My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is.. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.
Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?
If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.
What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?
Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it.. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.
You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?
I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.
How do you make the Government eat out of your hands? How do you make them agree to everything you do?
If the strategy of a private enterprise matches the policy of the government, the government will be compelled to support you even if they don't like you.
Wall Street braces for 2009's first full week
Wall Street will open for trading Monday at a two-month high as investors have grown more optimistic that the worst of the market's rout might be over. But, analysts contend, the real test is still to come.
There will be no shortage of economic data and potential corporate news as traders get back to work after the holidays. The real hope is that the market can build upon Friday's rally, when the Dow Jones industrial average snapped a four-week losing streak and closed above 9,000 for the first time since Nov. 5.
The past month has shown that the negative sentiment about things like corporate earnings and still-sluggish credit markets have already been factored into the market. Analysts say the next few weeks will determine if investors are comfortable enough to return to the market — with their fears of missing out on a rally outweighing concerns of a renewed downturn.
"There's now an estimated $8.9 trillion sitting on the sidelines in cash and money markets," said Stephen Leeb, president of New York-based Leeb Capital Management. "High cash levels and low stock prices historically go hand in hand. The current level as a percentage of the stock market's capitalization matches that at the market bottom in 1990."
He said this huge amount of liquidity "has yet to include the massive amount of money that will be created as a result of the Federal Reserve's recent unprecedented actions to stimulate the economy and financial system." That also could help bolster markets in the coming months.
Leeb and other analysts do not discount that the market may retreat and retest lows seen in November. The next few weeks will go a long way in assessing the market's resiliency, even in the face of abysmal economic news.
Early futures prices pointed to a negative start to the week. Dow industrials futures dipped 22 points, or 0.25 percent, to 8,936. Broader indexes also slipped, with Standard & Poor's 500 index futures down 2.40 points, or 0.26 percent, to 923.00; while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 3.00, or 0.24 percent, to 1,250.00.
This week investors will be eyeing the Labor Department's December unemployment report, due out Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 475,000 jobs from their payrolls, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That would be below the 533,000 jobs in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 7 percent from 6.7 percent in November. The government will also release its weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, which is again expected to show another increase.
Other reports on tap this week include November construction spending, auto sales reports, a survey on the services sector, November factory orders, and chain store sales.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will release the minutes from its Dec. 15-16 policy-making meeting. At that meeting, the central bank lowered the federal funds rate to between zero percent and 0.25 percent, and indicated rates would remain at that level for foreseeable future.
Also on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee meets to discuss how the next administration might make use of the remaining TARP funds. A House panel will also hold an economic recovery plan hearing with testimony from some of the nation's top economists.
The House Financial Services Committee on Monday will also hold a hearing on Bernard Madoff, the investor who lost potentially $50 billion in what is being called the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history.
In corporate news, technology stocks may also be in the spotlight with two major events planned — Macworld and the Consumer Electronics Show.
Apple Inc. will unveil some of its new products at Macworld in San Francisco on Monday and Tuesday, where investors will be looking for any signs into the health of Chief Executive Steve Jobs. He is not expected to attend the event.
The Consumer Electronics Show will kick off in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. The trade show gives tech companies an opportunity to present new products, and that often can send their shares higher.
There will be no shortage of economic data and potential corporate news as traders get back to work after the holidays. The real hope is that the market can build upon Friday's rally, when the Dow Jones industrial average snapped a four-week losing streak and closed above 9,000 for the first time since Nov. 5.
The past month has shown that the negative sentiment about things like corporate earnings and still-sluggish credit markets have already been factored into the market. Analysts say the next few weeks will determine if investors are comfortable enough to return to the market — with their fears of missing out on a rally outweighing concerns of a renewed downturn.
"There's now an estimated $8.9 trillion sitting on the sidelines in cash and money markets," said Stephen Leeb, president of New York-based Leeb Capital Management. "High cash levels and low stock prices historically go hand in hand. The current level as a percentage of the stock market's capitalization matches that at the market bottom in 1990."
He said this huge amount of liquidity "has yet to include the massive amount of money that will be created as a result of the Federal Reserve's recent unprecedented actions to stimulate the economy and financial system." That also could help bolster markets in the coming months.
Leeb and other analysts do not discount that the market may retreat and retest lows seen in November. The next few weeks will go a long way in assessing the market's resiliency, even in the face of abysmal economic news.
Early futures prices pointed to a negative start to the week. Dow industrials futures dipped 22 points, or 0.25 percent, to 8,936. Broader indexes also slipped, with Standard & Poor's 500 index futures down 2.40 points, or 0.26 percent, to 923.00; while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 3.00, or 0.24 percent, to 1,250.00.
This week investors will be eyeing the Labor Department's December unemployment report, due out Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 475,000 jobs from their payrolls, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That would be below the 533,000 jobs in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 7 percent from 6.7 percent in November. The government will also release its weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, which is again expected to show another increase.
Other reports on tap this week include November construction spending, auto sales reports, a survey on the services sector, November factory orders, and chain store sales.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will release the minutes from its Dec. 15-16 policy-making meeting. At that meeting, the central bank lowered the federal funds rate to between zero percent and 0.25 percent, and indicated rates would remain at that level for foreseeable future.
Also on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee meets to discuss how the next administration might make use of the remaining TARP funds. A House panel will also hold an economic recovery plan hearing with testimony from some of the nation's top economists.
The House Financial Services Committee on Monday will also hold a hearing on Bernard Madoff, the investor who lost potentially $50 billion in what is being called the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history.
In corporate news, technology stocks may also be in the spotlight with two major events planned — Macworld and the Consumer Electronics Show.
Apple Inc. will unveil some of its new products at Macworld in San Francisco on Monday and Tuesday, where investors will be looking for any signs into the health of Chief Executive Steve Jobs. He is not expected to attend the event.
The Consumer Electronics Show will kick off in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. The trade show gives tech companies an opportunity to present new products, and that often can send their shares higher.
炒不如藏——杨百万的实战要诀
中国第一股民——杨百万，真名杨怀定，被广大股民誉为“散户工会小组长”。杨百万能够笑傲风云变幻的中国股市数十年不倒，不仅源于他对政策的正确把握，他面对风险时平和的心态，更源于他过人的智慧和不可多得的宝贵经验。这些宝贵的实战经验与技巧无疑是值得投资者借鉴的。这里给读者介绍一些杨百万二十年股海实战中总结出来的经验和投资方法，供读者一睹为快。
坚持投资组合多样化
选股票首先要明确投资期限、目标和风险承受能力。股票相对于债券等其他资产的长期预期收益率越高，投资者配置在股票中的资金就应该越多。但仅仅明确股市的长期收益和风险收益，并不能决定投资股市中的具体金额。投资者还需结合自己目前的财务状况和未来资金需求等情况，确定投资期限、最低回报率以及可承受的最大风险，进而确定用于股票的资金分配比例和投资方法。
尽管金融投资要求实现整体资产的总收益最大化，但是，实际上每个投资者都会将不同数额的资金进行分配使用，并对该部分资金有着不同的投资期限、风险承受能力和收益要求。例如，为子女设立的助学储蓄账户投资期限和要求的回报基本固定，但是该项资金不能承受下跌风险，因此不能被投资于股票市场。同样，大部分用于退休的储蓄是为了保障基本生活，如果投入到股市，风险也是很大的。还有些投资者是用买断工龄的补偿金、房屋拆迁款以及借来的资金进入股市，如果出现亏损，结果是很可怕的。尤其是在一个狂热的市场上，各种资金纷纷加入，很多投资者缺乏风险意识，要知道世界上没有只涨不跌的单边市场，一旦股票市场出现下跌行情，就必然会遭受巨大损失。所以，投资者应该仔细审视自己的投资期限和风险承受能力、投资目标，以免造成投资损失。
在投资股票时还要实现投资组合的多样化。在股票市场投资策略中，大多数投资机构都是进行多样化组合投资，这样不但可以化解各种风险，而且可以获得更高收益。例如国际投资机构充分多样化体现在，将资金按市值构成比例分散在全球各个投资市场上，这对于绝大多数的投资者来说显然是不可能的，也是不能接受的。根据多年的股市经验得出，投资者只需将股票投资资金分成大小两部分，金额较小的一部分被称作短线组合，主要用来投资那些可能带来意外惊喜或超额利润的个股，这样不但可以获得一定的收益，而且还可以满足一些投资者的风险偏好；较大的一部分资金被称作长线组合，主要投资于在国民经济中占有举足轻重地位的大市值股票，如在股市发生逆转时还可以抗拒下跌风险。在投资方式上，短线组合主要采用的是主动投资策略，长线组合主要采用的是被动投资策略。
另外，投资者在进行长线组合投资时，可以考虑银行、保险、能源、电信等产业领域里的大型国有上市企业，因为它们在逐步控制着国内股票市场的总市值以及国民经济命脉，这种长线投资组合方式是值得个人投资者借鉴的。对于短线组合来说，是将少部分资金用来交易，满足个别短线操作的虚荣心，同时也可以调整一下长线投资带来的寂寞。
坚持长期、定期投资
股票的长期收益率相对于中短期国债而言，存在着巨大的优越性，这就是股票抵御通货膨胀内在的特性。而且，如果投资期限足够长，从理论上讲股票投资只有溢价，几乎没有风险，从历史上很多股票的复权价格可以看出这一点。由于股票最终可以反映出国家经济增长的成果，因此长期持有的股票在大涨后抛出必然盈利，这就意味着，投资者要密切关注国家的经济成长，不仅是长期投资，而且还要坚持在这一过程中定期投入更多的资金。以中国的A股市场为例，如果一个投资者从1993年12月31日起，坚持每年定期投资10000元在成长性好的股票上，经过分红、送配股后，平均每年达到的收益都在50%左右，到现在的利润可想而知，已远远大于同时期内短线投资者的收益。只要善于长期投资，才可以让大多数的投资者以宁静致远的心态参与股市，分享其长期回报。
“炒家”不如“藏家”
十几年前，当投资大众还不知股票为何物时，第一批敢于吃螃蟹的投资者已经从中挖到了第一桶金。如今，当人家从万科原始股东、苏宁电器原始股东成为亿元户的时候，这才认识到股市的魅力。1993年，股票大师邱永汉先生访问上海，杨百万有幸受到邀请并共进晚宴，席间交流并体会到：股票不是炒的，是用来捂的。炒家不如藏家，藏家不如捂家，这才是股市箴言。
当投资者准备长期持有一只股票时，首先需要对这个企业进行全面考察。企业如同人一样，也有生命周期，只是有的长寿、有的短寿而已。这个周期必将经历青少年期、中壮年期、老年期三个过程。长线投资的特性决定了投资者只能在青少年期介入，此时它的业绩可能一般，但却拥有一个不可估量的未来，这样的股票持有时间越长，增值潜力也就越大。
另外，考察企业的成长性还要考察其主业的经营能力，即主业是否处在一个社会长期需求或独特的行业，主导产品的生命周期是否持久，市场前景是否广阔；企业是否具有很强的产品创新、更新换代能力；企业的财务状况是否良好，现金流量和流动度是否正常；企业收益和利润是否来源于主营业务收入，而不是靠副业或其他投资收益；股本扩张是否有较强的欲望和经济能力；企业是否有一个积极开拓创新的领导者等。
从股价运行趋势上分析，进行长线投资应该在一个相对的底部区域分批建仓，这样可以将投资成本摊薄，同时减少一次性投入的风险。如果在一个大牛市中，股票市盈率已经超过几十倍甚至上百倍，再大谈特谈长线投资，无疑是自寻短见。我们要发掘的绩优成长股是价值被低估，绝对股价偏低，市盈率在30倍以下而潜力又极大的股票。它还要具有如下特点和特征：知识产权和行业垄断型、企业发明的专利能得到保护，并且有不断创新的能力、不可复制和不可模仿性。
跟庄顺庄的技巧
庄家就是在股票市场中掌握大筹码，能够控制局面的大户，庄家能够控制局面的发言权和主动权。要想战胜庄家其实是不可能的，杨百万告诉我们，散户的唯一选择就是跟庄顺庄。
但是跟庄顺庄并不像想象中那么简单，这里杨百万给我们讲述一些跟庄顺庄的技巧供我们参考。
庄家操作股票一般有以下法则：市场人气状态决定股价的涨跌；供求关系变化是股价变动的根源；股价的操作必须灵活，不能一味做多或者做空；必须有能力控制筹码；操作必须理性，对散户心理的了解必须透彻。
除了了解庄家的操作法则外，还要学会捕捉庄家的行踪。这里杨百万也给我们提供了一些方法。
首先，要跟着龙头股走。成为龙头股必须具备三个条件：须有较大的流通市值，占指数的权重较大，对大盘走势有举足轻重的作用；符合当前的炒作潮流，有较吸引人的题材；从走势看，要有实力机构的大规模介入。
其次，跟着成交量走。通过成交量可以看到主力的吸筹，一般也有三种方式：突峰式量能，多为短线庄家；高举高打式进货量能；散兵坑式吸筹量能。
再次，要跟着基本面走。基本面包括宏观经济运行态势和上市公司基本情况。把握好基本面才能为以后的选股做好准备。把握好基本面后就要找出庄家操作该股的理由，比如新股上市无套牢盘等。
最后，要跟着技术面走。
坚持投资组合多样化
选股票首先要明确投资期限、目标和风险承受能力。股票相对于债券等其他资产的长期预期收益率越高，投资者配置在股票中的资金就应该越多。但仅仅明确股市的长期收益和风险收益，并不能决定投资股市中的具体金额。投资者还需结合自己目前的财务状况和未来资金需求等情况，确定投资期限、最低回报率以及可承受的最大风险，进而确定用于股票的资金分配比例和投资方法。
尽管金融投资要求实现整体资产的总收益最大化，但是，实际上每个投资者都会将不同数额的资金进行分配使用，并对该部分资金有着不同的投资期限、风险承受能力和收益要求。例如，为子女设立的助学储蓄账户投资期限和要求的回报基本固定，但是该项资金不能承受下跌风险，因此不能被投资于股票市场。同样，大部分用于退休的储蓄是为了保障基本生活，如果投入到股市，风险也是很大的。还有些投资者是用买断工龄的补偿金、房屋拆迁款以及借来的资金进入股市，如果出现亏损，结果是很可怕的。尤其是在一个狂热的市场上，各种资金纷纷加入，很多投资者缺乏风险意识，要知道世界上没有只涨不跌的单边市场，一旦股票市场出现下跌行情，就必然会遭受巨大损失。所以，投资者应该仔细审视自己的投资期限和风险承受能力、投资目标，以免造成投资损失。
在投资股票时还要实现投资组合的多样化。在股票市场投资策略中，大多数投资机构都是进行多样化组合投资，这样不但可以化解各种风险，而且可以获得更高收益。例如国际投资机构充分多样化体现在，将资金按市值构成比例分散在全球各个投资市场上，这对于绝大多数的投资者来说显然是不可能的，也是不能接受的。根据多年的股市经验得出，投资者只需将股票投资资金分成大小两部分，金额较小的一部分被称作短线组合，主要用来投资那些可能带来意外惊喜或超额利润的个股，这样不但可以获得一定的收益，而且还可以满足一些投资者的风险偏好；较大的一部分资金被称作长线组合，主要投资于在国民经济中占有举足轻重地位的大市值股票，如在股市发生逆转时还可以抗拒下跌风险。在投资方式上，短线组合主要采用的是主动投资策略，长线组合主要采用的是被动投资策略。
另外，投资者在进行长线组合投资时，可以考虑银行、保险、能源、电信等产业领域里的大型国有上市企业，因为它们在逐步控制着国内股票市场的总市值以及国民经济命脉，这种长线投资组合方式是值得个人投资者借鉴的。对于短线组合来说，是将少部分资金用来交易，满足个别短线操作的虚荣心，同时也可以调整一下长线投资带来的寂寞。
坚持长期、定期投资
股票的长期收益率相对于中短期国债而言，存在着巨大的优越性，这就是股票抵御通货膨胀内在的特性。而且，如果投资期限足够长，从理论上讲股票投资只有溢价，几乎没有风险，从历史上很多股票的复权价格可以看出这一点。由于股票最终可以反映出国家经济增长的成果，因此长期持有的股票在大涨后抛出必然盈利，这就意味着，投资者要密切关注国家的经济成长，不仅是长期投资，而且还要坚持在这一过程中定期投入更多的资金。以中国的A股市场为例，如果一个投资者从1993年12月31日起，坚持每年定期投资10000元在成长性好的股票上，经过分红、送配股后，平均每年达到的收益都在50%左右，到现在的利润可想而知，已远远大于同时期内短线投资者的收益。只要善于长期投资，才可以让大多数的投资者以宁静致远的心态参与股市，分享其长期回报。
“炒家”不如“藏家”
十几年前，当投资大众还不知股票为何物时，第一批敢于吃螃蟹的投资者已经从中挖到了第一桶金。如今，当人家从万科原始股东、苏宁电器原始股东成为亿元户的时候，这才认识到股市的魅力。1993年，股票大师邱永汉先生访问上海，杨百万有幸受到邀请并共进晚宴，席间交流并体会到：股票不是炒的，是用来捂的。炒家不如藏家，藏家不如捂家，这才是股市箴言。
当投资者准备长期持有一只股票时，首先需要对这个企业进行全面考察。企业如同人一样，也有生命周期，只是有的长寿、有的短寿而已。这个周期必将经历青少年期、中壮年期、老年期三个过程。长线投资的特性决定了投资者只能在青少年期介入，此时它的业绩可能一般，但却拥有一个不可估量的未来，这样的股票持有时间越长，增值潜力也就越大。
另外，考察企业的成长性还要考察其主业的经营能力，即主业是否处在一个社会长期需求或独特的行业，主导产品的生命周期是否持久，市场前景是否广阔；企业是否具有很强的产品创新、更新换代能力；企业的财务状况是否良好，现金流量和流动度是否正常；企业收益和利润是否来源于主营业务收入，而不是靠副业或其他投资收益；股本扩张是否有较强的欲望和经济能力；企业是否有一个积极开拓创新的领导者等。
从股价运行趋势上分析，进行长线投资应该在一个相对的底部区域分批建仓，这样可以将投资成本摊薄，同时减少一次性投入的风险。如果在一个大牛市中，股票市盈率已经超过几十倍甚至上百倍，再大谈特谈长线投资，无疑是自寻短见。我们要发掘的绩优成长股是价值被低估，绝对股价偏低，市盈率在30倍以下而潜力又极大的股票。它还要具有如下特点和特征：知识产权和行业垄断型、企业发明的专利能得到保护，并且有不断创新的能力、不可复制和不可模仿性。
跟庄顺庄的技巧
庄家就是在股票市场中掌握大筹码，能够控制局面的大户，庄家能够控制局面的发言权和主动权。要想战胜庄家其实是不可能的，杨百万告诉我们，散户的唯一选择就是跟庄顺庄。
但是跟庄顺庄并不像想象中那么简单，这里杨百万给我们讲述一些跟庄顺庄的技巧供我们参考。
庄家操作股票一般有以下法则：市场人气状态决定股价的涨跌；供求关系变化是股价变动的根源；股价的操作必须灵活，不能一味做多或者做空；必须有能力控制筹码；操作必须理性，对散户心理的了解必须透彻。
除了了解庄家的操作法则外，还要学会捕捉庄家的行踪。这里杨百万也给我们提供了一些方法。
首先，要跟着龙头股走。成为龙头股必须具备三个条件：须有较大的流通市值，占指数的权重较大，对大盘走势有举足轻重的作用；符合当前的炒作潮流，有较吸引人的题材；从走势看，要有实力机构的大规模介入。
其次，跟着成交量走。通过成交量可以看到主力的吸筹，一般也有三种方式：突峰式量能，多为短线庄家；高举高打式进货量能；散兵坑式吸筹量能。
再次，要跟着基本面走。基本面包括宏观经济运行态势和上市公司基本情况。把握好基本面才能为以后的选股做好准备。把握好基本面后就要找出庄家操作该股的理由，比如新股上市无套牢盘等。
最后，要跟着技术面走。
杨百万：我炒股不是靠运气！
“炒股学问很深，没知识没头脑者请勿入市，”“炒股，6分心态，3分技巧，1分运气，”“炒股不能贪心，要有耐心……”7月6日，“杨百万常德股民恳谈会”在市工人文化宫举行。有着“中国散户第一人”之称的杨百万(真名杨怀定)以其诙谐幽默的语言给数百名常德股民带来了十分精彩的一课。
早晨8时30分，尽管离开讲还有半个小时，众多股民已经早早地来到了报告会现场。报告会上，场内笑声掌声不断，杨大师向广大听众讲述了如何选择股票、股票买卖技巧、如何抄底逃顶等相关炒股实战技巧，并现场解答常德股民提出的问题。杨百万说，炒股要有好的心态，股市是个放大镜，上涨时，可以放大出股民的贪婪性，下跌时，可以放大出股民的恐惧性。投资者一定要把握好自己的心态。炒股是一门工夫很深的学问，投资者要加强专业知识的学习，要有远大的眼光,要有知识阅历作支撑,才能把握住规律，想要做股市赢家，必须把握好理念、技巧、工具三者的有机结合。
“……杨百万进去，杨白劳出来……”最近，好多人收到这样的短信，调侃股市一塌糊涂。
当有股民问他知道这条短信吗？他一脸严肃:“啥人没收到过？”接着哈哈一笑:“排在前档是谁？武松、姚明还有我啊，说明我是有目共睹的财富英雄，承蒙大家捧场。”见他得意，我单刀直入:“你前阵子买了许多中石油，号称是买给孙子的礼物，没想到风云突变，股价暴跌，传说你惨不忍睹？”
他解释一通，很专业，但不做股票的我实在听不懂，只晓得他确有此事，可操作并没吃到亏。接着他还来一句:“我有信心，等到孙子长大，这股价肯定要翻几个倍。当年买国库券，后来买电真空，大家都当我戆大，结果呢！”“去年唱《死了都不卖》，现在又唱《只要不亏》。这种心态害死人，牛市得意忘形，听不进逆耳忠言，熊市又自暴自弃，一点没信心。”杨百万很严肃地说:“危机就是机遇，道理人人都懂，但很少人去做。比如谁都知道，高位抛出，低位吃进，但实际呢？偏偏是越好越杀进，越低越割肉。”
杨百万最后说:“我当年真的是杨白劳，穷得叮当响。为啥大家不能抓牢机会，现在是杨白劳进去，以后是杨百万出来呢？”
早晨8时30分，尽管离开讲还有半个小时，众多股民已经早早地来到了报告会现场。报告会上，场内笑声掌声不断，杨大师向广大听众讲述了如何选择股票、股票买卖技巧、如何抄底逃顶等相关炒股实战技巧，并现场解答常德股民提出的问题。杨百万说，炒股要有好的心态，股市是个放大镜，上涨时，可以放大出股民的贪婪性，下跌时，可以放大出股民的恐惧性。投资者一定要把握好自己的心态。炒股是一门工夫很深的学问，投资者要加强专业知识的学习，要有远大的眼光,要有知识阅历作支撑,才能把握住规律，想要做股市赢家，必须把握好理念、技巧、工具三者的有机结合。
“……杨百万进去，杨白劳出来……”最近，好多人收到这样的短信，调侃股市一塌糊涂。
当有股民问他知道这条短信吗？他一脸严肃:“啥人没收到过？”接着哈哈一笑:“排在前档是谁？武松、姚明还有我啊，说明我是有目共睹的财富英雄，承蒙大家捧场。”见他得意，我单刀直入:“你前阵子买了许多中石油，号称是买给孙子的礼物，没想到风云突变，股价暴跌，传说你惨不忍睹？”
他解释一通，很专业，但不做股票的我实在听不懂，只晓得他确有此事，可操作并没吃到亏。接着他还来一句:“我有信心，等到孙子长大，这股价肯定要翻几个倍。当年买国库券，后来买电真空，大家都当我戆大，结果呢！”“去年唱《死了都不卖》，现在又唱《只要不亏》。这种心态害死人，牛市得意忘形，听不进逆耳忠言，熊市又自暴自弃，一点没信心。”杨百万很严肃地说:“危机就是机遇，道理人人都懂，但很少人去做。比如谁都知道，高位抛出，低位吃进，但实际呢？偏偏是越好越杀进，越低越割肉。”
杨百万最后说:“我当年真的是杨白劳，穷得叮当响。为啥大家不能抓牢机会，现在是杨白劳进去，以后是杨百万出来呢？”
巴菲特:在恐慌情绪弥漫时抓住机遇
投资家巴菲特解释现在购买股票的原因时称，应在恐慌情绪弥漫时抓住投资机遇提早行动，并应对美国多数稳健企业的长期繁荣持有信心。
全球著名投资家巴菲特称，美国国内与海外金融市场目前均陷入混乱，并且问题已经蔓延至其他经济领域，但目前尚未导致“井喷”。预计短期失业率将上升，商业活动低迷。而在此情况下，巴菲特先前仅持有政府国债的个人帐户已开始购进美国股票。
巴菲特对此解释称，在其他投资者贪婪时应小心谨慎，而在别人恐惧担心时则应积极获取，这是一条简单的法则。目前几乎可以确定的是，恐慌情绪正在蔓延，即便是有理智的投资者也不能幸免。诚然，投资者有权在竞争能力薄弱时对高杠杆业务持谨慎立场。但对于美国多数稳健企业的长期繁荣有所担忧则是没有必要的，这些企业实际上不过是在经历暂时的收益间歇性问题，但多数企业将自此开始创造5年、10年甚至20年的净利最新纪录。
巴菲特表示，目前无法预测股市短期走向，但有可能发生的是市场将远在投资信心或经济好转之前开始上行，因此投资者应提早行动。
回顾历史更易令人警醒，道琼斯指数曾在大萧条期间的1932年7月8日跌至低点。尽管经济形势在1933年3月罗斯福上台之后依然恶化，但股市至此已反弹约30%。另一例证是二战早期，市场在1942年4月触底，远早于同盟国转折点的到来。20世纪80年代初期，买入股票的时机恰是通胀高涨期。总而言之，坏消息是投资者的良友，令人可以低价买进将来高涨的股票。
从长期而言，股票市场消息将向好。20世纪美国已经历了两次大战与其他成本高昂的外部军事战争，此外大萧条、多次不景气及金融恐慌与石油危机等冲击。而道琼斯指数依然从66点涨到11,497点。
巴菲特强调，目前持有现金的人们可能感觉颇好，但实际上，美国政府抑制危机的救市计划可能将被证实是带有通胀倾向的，因此加剧现金帐户的实际价值缩水。未来十年内无意将进入投资期，证券价值将超过现金，人们不应坐等好消息的到来。
全球著名投资家巴菲特称，美国国内与海外金融市场目前均陷入混乱，并且问题已经蔓延至其他经济领域，但目前尚未导致“井喷”。预计短期失业率将上升，商业活动低迷。而在此情况下，巴菲特先前仅持有政府国债的个人帐户已开始购进美国股票。
巴菲特对此解释称，在其他投资者贪婪时应小心谨慎，而在别人恐惧担心时则应积极获取，这是一条简单的法则。目前几乎可以确定的是，恐慌情绪正在蔓延，即便是有理智的投资者也不能幸免。诚然，投资者有权在竞争能力薄弱时对高杠杆业务持谨慎立场。但对于美国多数稳健企业的长期繁荣有所担忧则是没有必要的，这些企业实际上不过是在经历暂时的收益间歇性问题，但多数企业将自此开始创造5年、10年甚至20年的净利最新纪录。
巴菲特表示，目前无法预测股市短期走向，但有可能发生的是市场将远在投资信心或经济好转之前开始上行，因此投资者应提早行动。
回顾历史更易令人警醒，道琼斯指数曾在大萧条期间的1932年7月8日跌至低点。尽管经济形势在1933年3月罗斯福上台之后依然恶化，但股市至此已反弹约30%。另一例证是二战早期，市场在1942年4月触底，远早于同盟国转折点的到来。20世纪80年代初期，买入股票的时机恰是通胀高涨期。总而言之，坏消息是投资者的良友，令人可以低价买进将来高涨的股票。
从长期而言，股票市场消息将向好。20世纪美国已经历了两次大战与其他成本高昂的外部军事战争，此外大萧条、多次不景气及金融恐慌与石油危机等冲击。而道琼斯指数依然从66点涨到11,497点。
巴菲特强调，目前持有现金的人们可能感觉颇好，但实际上，美国政府抑制危机的救市计划可能将被证实是带有通胀倾向的，因此加剧现金帐户的实际价值缩水。未来十年内无意将进入投资期，证券价值将超过现金，人们不应坐等好消息的到来。
滚雪球:巴菲特和生活中的商机
在前几日举行的美国总统大选辩论中，两党总统候选人奥巴马和麦凯恩在被问到如果他们当选总统，心中有无属意的财政部长人选时，不约而同地点名巴菲特。
在美国金融危机愈演愈烈之时，巴菲特频频出手抄底，再度成为焦点人物。
上月底出版的关于巴菲特这位美国第二富豪的传记--《滚雪球:巴菲特和生活中的商机》披露了巴菲特许多鲜为人知的故事。这部厚达960页的传记揭示，虽然巴菲特在长长的人生轨迹中曾经涉足其他领域，但是他一直展现出惊人的干劲和不同寻常的赚钱天赋。
《滚雪球:巴菲特和生活中的商机》一书的作者是前摩根士丹利保险分析师爱丽丝施罗德，她获得珍贵的机会，深入采访了巴菲特本人、家人、商业伙伴和朋友，包括比尔盖茨。
上世纪90年代末，施罗德在撰写一份有关巴菲特经营的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的报告时接触到巴菲特，深得后者赏识。巴菲特于是邀请她帮他写传记，与她聊了数千小时，还提供大量个人档案和朋友数据助她撰稿。他还说："如果我的说法与任何其他说法不同，那你就选一个没那么夸我的版本。"
小时候的沃伦巴菲特在学校里成绩很差，还经常离家出走，还常常到社区里的商店偷体育运动商品。有一次，巴菲特的父亲发现他的衣柜里堆满了高尔夫球，因而起了疑心。父亲作出最后通牒：除非改正错误，否则的话不准他再去靠送报纸来赚零用钱。
"这个通牒对我很奏效。"巴菲特说。他从此"改邪归正"，并靠送报纸积攒下来的零用钱，在内布拉斯加州一个农场买了一块16公顷的土地，当时他只有16岁，还是华盛顿中学的学生。巴菲特在当地雇了一名农民帮他耕种土地，有关协议持续至今。
11岁立志当百万富翁
巴菲特在童年的时候就宣布自己要在35岁之前成为百万富翁。现在拥有500亿美元家产的他显然早已远远超越了这个目标。巴菲特成功的秘诀究竟是什么？据传记披露，巴菲特的成功不仅靠过人的投资天赋，更关键是他那股永不停歇的冲劲。
据说，在巴菲特出席的一个晚宴上，主持人问巴菲特，你认为使你获得成功的最重要因素是什么？巴菲特回答说："专注。"而当晚有另一个人也给出了同样的答案，那就是比尔盖茨。
在美国金融危机愈演愈烈之时，巴菲特频频出手抄底，再度成为焦点人物。
上月底出版的关于巴菲特这位美国第二富豪的传记--《滚雪球:巴菲特和生活中的商机》披露了巴菲特许多鲜为人知的故事。这部厚达960页的传记揭示，虽然巴菲特在长长的人生轨迹中曾经涉足其他领域，但是他一直展现出惊人的干劲和不同寻常的赚钱天赋。
《滚雪球:巴菲特和生活中的商机》一书的作者是前摩根士丹利保险分析师爱丽丝施罗德，她获得珍贵的机会，深入采访了巴菲特本人、家人、商业伙伴和朋友，包括比尔盖茨。
上世纪90年代末，施罗德在撰写一份有关巴菲特经营的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的报告时接触到巴菲特，深得后者赏识。巴菲特于是邀请她帮他写传记，与她聊了数千小时，还提供大量个人档案和朋友数据助她撰稿。他还说："如果我的说法与任何其他说法不同，那你就选一个没那么夸我的版本。"
小时候的沃伦巴菲特在学校里成绩很差，还经常离家出走，还常常到社区里的商店偷体育运动商品。有一次，巴菲特的父亲发现他的衣柜里堆满了高尔夫球，因而起了疑心。父亲作出最后通牒：除非改正错误，否则的话不准他再去靠送报纸来赚零用钱。
"这个通牒对我很奏效。"巴菲特说。他从此"改邪归正"，并靠送报纸积攒下来的零用钱，在内布拉斯加州一个农场买了一块16公顷的土地，当时他只有16岁，还是华盛顿中学的学生。巴菲特在当地雇了一名农民帮他耕种土地，有关协议持续至今。
11岁立志当百万富翁
巴菲特在童年的时候就宣布自己要在35岁之前成为百万富翁。现在拥有500亿美元家产的他显然早已远远超越了这个目标。巴菲特成功的秘诀究竟是什么？据传记披露，巴菲特的成功不仅靠过人的投资天赋，更关键是他那股永不停歇的冲劲。
据说，在巴菲特出席的一个晚宴上，主持人问巴菲特，你认为使你获得成功的最重要因素是什么？巴菲特回答说："专注。"而当晚有另一个人也给出了同样的答案，那就是比尔盖茨。
什么是巴菲特投资心理
条条道路通罗马，价值投资是其中一条道路。本帖无意向谁兜售巴菲特价值投资理念。我沉迷于巴菲特的成功，巴菲特的理念核心是什么呢？有些人全盘接受巴菲特理念，有些人不屑于巴菲特的理念。也许我们更应该从巴菲特成功的地方理性的思考，激荡出更多的投资思考，也许这是投资成功的核心之处。
巴菲特法则是沃伦"巴菲特42年成功投资生涯一直秉持的不二法则，核心精髓包括价值投资、边际安全原则、集中投资组合、长期持有股权等，秉持巴菲特法则的投资者如凯恩斯(Keynesian)、芒格(Monger)等都获得超越大盘的投资回报。考虑到美国股市在过去20年增长10倍的大牛市背景下，仍然有90%的投资者未能盈利的严峻事实，长期获得超越大盘的投资回报几乎是不可能完成的任务，历史证明巴菲特法则是投资界的黄金法则。
然而，尽管巴菲特法则为广大投资界人士所熟知，但成功应用巴菲特法则获得成功的人还是凤毛麟角。其原因到底何在？
巴菲特法则执行的最大难点在两个方面，一是对人类本性的理解与超越，二是对投资价值判断的专业性。前者涉及人类心理的奥秘，后者涉及对股票背后商业运营的洞察力。任何投资市场背后都是活生生的人在推动，因而对他们心理的研究是洞察投资市场的独特视角。
直觉判断与四大错觉思维
“我和查理还没学会如何解决公司的难题，我们的成功在于我们集中力量于我们能跨越的一尺栅栏上，而不是发现了跨越七尺栅栏的方法。”
巴菲特还坚持投资于自己所熟悉的行业，他承认自己不投资于高科技公司的原因是自己没有能力理解和评价它们
心理学的一个重大发现就是人类的直觉，正如法国哲学家帕斯卡尔所说：“心灵活动有其自身原因，而理性却无法知晓。”人类的思维、记忆、态度都是同时在两个水平上运行的，一个是有意识和有意图的，另一个是无意识和自动的。我们的所知比我们知道自己所知的还要多。
直觉是人类在长期进化中基因优化的结果，是人类反应及处理问题时的心理捷径。股市中恐惧、贪婪、乐观、悲观等情绪均是无意识的自动的直觉反映，是人类的本性。为什么人们会疯狂地追涨(贪婪)、杀跌(恐惧)？为什么股市不断重演非理性繁荣与非理性萧条的循环？就是因为直觉和本性的原因。
任何事物都存在两面性，直觉判断一方面节省了人类的心智资源，另一方面也为人类带来了错觉思维。由于直觉存在敏感性、即时性、既定模式反应等特征，直觉在进行判断与决策时有着明显的局限性，从而使人们产生了事后聪明偏见、过度敏感效应、信念固着现象、过度自信倾向等错误思维，这在股市投资决策中充分反映了出来。
1.事后聪明偏见
所谓事后聪明偏见是指人们往往倾向于利用事件发生之后的结果去理解事件发生的原因及过程。“事后诸葛亮”就是指这一现象。人们往往会忽视事后理解的天然优势，而进一步贬低事前决策的复杂性与难度。事后聪明偏见是普遍存在的，是人性的一部分，这一错觉思维使人们倾向于高估自身的能力，而低估他人的能力。
巴菲特在投资中尽量避免犯这样的错误，事实上20世纪60年代对伯克夏"哈撒韦的投资(当年主要以纺织业为主)给了巴菲特非常大的教训，20世纪80 年代他被迫将持续亏损的纺织业务关闭。这形成了巴菲特非常重要的投资准则，即投资于保持一贯经营原则的公司，避开陷入困境的公司。不要高估自己，指望自己比该公司的经营者做得更好，能够扭亏为盈。“我和查理还没学会如何解决公司的难题，”巴菲特承认，“但是我们学会了如何避开难题，我们的成功在于我们集中力量于我们能跨越的一尺栅栏上，而不是发现了跨越七尺栅栏的方法。”
2.过度敏感效应
过度敏感效应是指人们在心理上倾向于高估与夸大刚刚发生的事件的影响因素，而低估影响整体系统的其他因素的作用，从而作出错误判断，并对此作出过度的行为反应。敏感能使人们及时发现异常现象并加快对此的反应速度，但也会加大反应的幅度，使反应过分。
以美国“9"11”事件为例。“9"11”事件后，恐怖分子劫持飞机撞毁纽约世贸双塔的情景极大刺激了美国公众的神经，于是人们大大高估了航空旅行的危险性，倾向于选择其他旅行方式，美国航空业随之进入大萧条期。然而，数据统计显示，即使考虑到“9"11”事件的航空灾难，航空旅行也是所有旅行方式中最安全的，其事故率是火车旅行的三分之一。过度敏感效应在股票市场投资中反映得淋漓尽致，在股市上涨时，人们往往过分乐观，倾向于相信大牛市是永无尽头的，于是过分推高了股票价格；而股市下跌时，人们往往过分悲观，倾向于相信大熊市是不可避免的，于是过分打压了股票的价格。巴菲特认为正是人们的非理性行为使得股票价格围绕其价值进行过分的波动，为投资带来机会。他认为好的投资者应当利用这一现象，在别人贪婪时恐惧(1969年当巴菲特发现股票市场中人们已经陷入疯狂时果断抛售了所有股票，并解散了投资基金)，在别人恐惧时贪婪(在1973、1974年美国股市大幅下跌进入熊市后，巴菲特又逢低分批建仓成功抄底)。巴菲特认为，“股票市场下跌在某种情况下不是坏事，投资机会正是从投资退潮中显露出来。”
3.信念固着现象
信念固着现象是指人们一旦对某项事物建立了某种信念，尤其是为它建立了一个理论支持体系，那么就很难打破人们的这一看法，即使是相反的证据与信息出现时他们也往往视而不见。从心理学的角度看，人们越是极力想证明自己的理论与解释是正确的，就越是对挑战自己信念的信息封闭。
信念固着现象是股票投资中非常重要的心理现象，股票投资者往往倾向于预测股市的涨跌与股票价格的波动，各类证券分析机构也通过预测股价波动获取收益。然而，人们往往会落入信念固着的思维陷阱，在满仓时忽视下跌信号的出现，而在空仓时忽视上涨因素的累积。巴菲特看透了这一思维误区，主张理解投资与投机差异，认为应理性投资而不应非理性投机。应当说，这就是巴菲特法则的思想精髓——价值投资。
凯恩斯、格雷厄姆及巴菲特都曾解释过投资与投机的差异。凯恩斯认为：“投资是预测资产未来收益的活动，而投机是预测市场心理的活动。”对格雷厄姆来说，“投资操作就是基于透彻的分析，确保本金的安全并能获得满意的回报。不能满足这个要求的操作就是投机。”巴菲特相信：“如果你是投资者，你所关注的就是资产——在我们这里是指公司——未来的发展变化。如果你是投机者，你主要预测独立于公司的价格变化。”以上述标准来看，中国股市目前还是一个投机气氛浓厚的市场。
4.过度自信倾向
过度自信倾向是指人们在对过去知识进行判断中存在智力自负现象，这种现象会影响对目前知识的评价和未来行为的预测。尽管我们知道自己过去出过错，但我们对未来的预期仍然相当乐观。造成过度自信倾向的主要原因是人们往往倾向于在他们完全正确的时刻回忆自己的错误判断，从而认为这只是偶然发生的事件，与他们的能力缺陷无关。
过度自信倾向几乎影响了每一个人，约翰逊的过度自信造成了美国20世纪60年代陷入了越南战争的泥潭，尼克"里森的过度自信造成了百年巴林银行的倒闭。可以说过度自信倾向是人类理性决策的最大敌人，这一倾向还容易使人们产生控制错觉，就如赌徒，一旦赢了就归因于自己的赌技与预见力，一旦输了就认为 “差一点就成了，或偶然倒霉”。而从理性角度来看，进行赌博与购买彩票从概率上来说是一场必输的游戏，然而还是有无数赌徒与彩民由于控制错觉而沉迷于此。
真正摆脱过度自信倾向，超越自己是非常不容易的事。绝大多数的股票投资人都坚信自己能够判断出大盘的涨跌趋势，并通过“逢低买入与逢高卖出”来获取收益，自己的收益将远远超出大盘指数的涨幅。然而具有讽刺意味的是，据统计90%的投资者(包括机构投资者)投资收益落后于大盘指数的增长，尽管这一统计数据是如此明显的证据，人们还是相信自己有能力成为那部分10%的投资者，而拒绝接受傻瓜似的股指基金组合，认为这是对自我智力的羞辱。巴菲特清楚认识到自己的局限性，认为大盘是无法预测的，能够把握的是对股票背后公司价值的评价与未来收益的预测，因此他从不期望于通过预测大盘来获益。
此外，巴菲特还坚持投资于自己所熟悉的行业，他承认自己不投资于高科技公司的原因是自己没有能力理解和评价它们。在伯克夏"哈撒韦公司1998年年会上他说：“我很敬佩安迪"格罗夫和比尔"盖茨，而且希望把这种敬佩通过资金支持他们转化成行动。但是说到微软与英特尔，我不知道十年后的世界是什么样的，而且我也不喜欢玩那种对方占优势的游戏。我花所有的时间考虑技术，但我仍然可能是分析这个行业的第100、第1000甚至第10000个聪明的人。确实有人能分析这个行业，但是我不行。”
从众与群体极化
他不仅在投资决策中坚持独立思考，还在被投资公司中重用抵制行业惯性的经营者
从众是指人们受他人影响而改变自己的行为与信念。旅鼠行动是经典的从众案例，这种生长在北极的小动物每当种群繁殖到一定程度就会集体跳海，自杀身亡。社会心理学家所做的从众研究试验中，人类也表现出了强烈的从众倾向。
从众可以引发群体极化效应，即群体成员的相互影响可以强化群体成员最初的观点与信念。群体极化效应的产生原因有两条，一是群体成员倾向于与其他成员保持行为与信念的一致，以获取群体对他的认可及团体归属感；二是群体成员在对需要决策的事件拿不准的时候，模仿与顺从他人的行为与信念往往是安全的。
从众与群体极化效应在人类的投资活动中充分体现了出来。人们的投资行为往往会受到他人的影响，当大多数投资者都陷入贪婪的疯狂而拼命追涨时，很少有投资者能冷静而理智地抵制购买的诱惑；而当大多数投资者都陷入恐惧之中而拼命杀跌时，也很少有投资者能抵制抛售的冲动。这种从众的压力是非常巨大的，然而，明智的投资决策往往是“预料之外而情理之中”的决策，大家都看中的热点板块的投资价值通常已经提前透支了，而聪明的投资者一般会不断观察与跟踪具有投资价值的股票，当它的股价下跌到合理的区间范围之内时(被大多数投资者忽视)，就会果断吃进。很显然，这样做不仅需要专业的价值评估水平，更需要抵制从众压力的坚定意志与敢为天下先的巨大勇气。巴菲特的老师格雷厄姆曾经教导他要从股市的情感漩涡中拔出来，要发现大多数投资者的不理智行为，他们购买股票不是基于逻辑，而是基于情感。
如果你在正确的判断基础上获得符合逻辑的结论，那么不要因别人与你的意见不一致而放弃，“你的正确或错误都不会是因为别人和你不一致，你之所以正确是因为你的数据与逻辑推理正确。”巴菲特遵循了老师的教导，他不仅在投资决策中坚持独立思考，还在被投资公司中重用抵制行业惯性的经营者，并将抵制行业惯性作为他所归纳的12条最重要的投资准则之一。在对NotreDame商学院的学生发表演讲时，他归纳了37家投资银行的失败原因：“他们为什么有这样的结局呢？我来告诉你们，那就是愚蠢的模仿同行的行为。”
根据合理的数据与逻辑得出的理性判断，从不为他人的观点所动；他只投资于自己搞得懂的产业与公司，在公司调研上亲力亲为，从不借助他人的判断。他将投资活动比喻为打棒球，他认为投资比打棒球容易，打棒球是没有选择地击打投过来的每一个球，而投资只需要选择击打那些最有把握击中的球就可以了，合适的球没投过来之前你只需要躺着休息就可以了。可以说，巴菲特是少数有理性与勇气爬出虚假信息洞穴获得理性光明的人。
信息洞穴与事实真相
他从不阅读华尔街的所谓权威证券分析，也不热衷到处收集影响股市的小道消息
国外一些研究伊拉克问题的专家指出，伊拉克前总统萨达姆"侯赛因出身平民，精明能干，通过奋斗夺取了国家最高权力。但他作出了两次关键性的重大决策失误，导致付出生命的代价。一次是入侵科威特，这是基于美国不会武力干预的判断；第二次是在核武问题上采取强硬立场，这是基于对自身武装力量的过高估计。为什么像萨达姆这样精明的人会犯这种错误呢？专家分析，萨达姆实际上是一个信息洞穴人，他所接触到的信息都被伊拉克高级官员所垄断，而这些官员往往或是依据自身利益来歪曲、加工与屏蔽信息，或是投其所好，报喜不报忧，以此保住官位。于是萨达姆呆在虚假信息的洞穴中，看不清洞穴外的事实真相，作出基于错误信息的错误判断与决策也就理所当然了。
投资者是典型的信息洞穴人，投资市场上活跃着交易所、上市公司大股东及管理层、公募与私募基金、证券公司、普通股民、投资咨询机构、媒体、银行、律师及审计事务所等主体，构成了一个巨大的生态系统，每个个体都处于食物链的某一个环节，为了各自的切身利益，时常有意识或下意识地发布、制造、夸大、歪曲信息。由于信息发布者“裁剪”信息的内容，不少人被虚假或片面信息所操纵，作出错误的投资决策。典型的事例是上市公司高管与庄家相互勾结，配合庄家对股价的操纵而制作财务数据、发布虚假消息，最终受损的是普通散户。此外，普通投资者对庞杂信息的识别缺乏专业知识的支持，更容易受到愚弄。例如前一阶段我国拟发行1.55万亿特别国债的紧缩效应就被高估，而我国今年上半年看似不高的CPI指数(3.2个百分点)使普通投资者低估了通胀的可能性，这主要是由于我国CPI指数的构成比例不合理所致。
巴菲特清楚地认识到这一点，他从不阅读华尔街的所谓权威证券分析，也不热衷到处收集影响股市的小道消息，同样不天天紧张地盯着盘面的变化，这使得他的投资工作非常轻松，他有时甚至在家中一边享受天伦之乐、一边工作，美国股市上世纪80年代末崩盘的那一天他甚至无暇关注股市。巴菲特只相信自己。
如何应对人性的弱点
在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
客观地说，直觉、从众等人类本性并不是绝对的缺点，我们的主观体验是构成人性的材料，它是人类对艺术和音乐、友谊与爱情、神秘性与宗教体验的感受源泉。但必须承认，上述人类本性会造成错觉思维、错误判断和错误行为，这一现象在投资活动中充分表现出来。巴菲特法则的核心并不是他所创立的12条投资法则，任何所谓投资真经都会随着时间的流逝而失灵，只有其背后的真正原则与规律才会永恒，巴菲特在投资活动中对人性心理弱点的克服与利用正是这种永恒的法则与逻辑。人性之所以被称为人性，就是因其源自于自身并难以克服，但仍然有应对之道，人们可以从态度、反思、试错与时间四个维度来修炼自己，克服人性弱点，获取满意的投资收益。
首先，正确的态度是克服心理弱点的基础。
我们应当正视与承认人类具有局限性这一事实，这种对人类能力的自谦与怀疑是科学与宗教的核心所在。社会心理学家戴维"迈尔斯对此有精彩的论述，“科学同样包括直觉和严格检验的相互影响。从错觉中寻找现实需要开放的好奇心与冷静的头脑。以下观点被证明是对待生活的正确态度：批判而不愤世嫉俗，好奇而不受蒙蔽，开放而不被操纵。”在投资活动中树立这一态度同样是至关重要的，这需要保持中庸避免极端。如果不能保持好奇与开放的心态，就不能最大限度获取投资决策相关的信息，也就不能及早发现环境的转变与新的规律的形成，也就不能抓住转瞬即逝的投资机会；而如果不能以批判的态度对待一切信息，就容易受到他人的蒙蔽与操纵，从而陷入无数的投资陷阱。
其次，反思是克服心理弱点的方法。
正如苏格拉底的旷世名言所说：“不加审视的生活是不值得过的。”反思与总结是人类进步的源泉，也是提升投资活动与投资决策成功率的重要方法。法国哲学家帕斯卡尔认识到，“任何一个单独的真理都是不充分的，因为世界是很复杂的。任何一个真理如果脱离了和它互补的真理，就只能算是部分真理而已。”世上没有绝对正确的事情，在做任何投资决策之前，不要先入为主与过分自信，务必从反对这一投资决策的角度进行思考，试着提出反对的道理与理由，或是咨询其他投资人的意见，尤其重视反对者的意见，这种反思与多重思考会极大地完善、丰富与修正你的投资决策，提高投资决策的质量。
再次，试错是克服心理弱点的手段。
人类是有限理性的，而投资市场是错综复杂与不断变化的，人们不可能穷尽投资决策所需的一切信息与规律，因此有效检验投资决策正确与否的手段就是试错，对可能的投资方法与对象进行尝试性投资，将投资手段与方法放到实践中进行检验。对试错的批评可能在于两点，一是认为试错的代价过于高昂，二是投资的时效性，当发现投资机会时该机会已丧失。对第一种批评的对策是将降低试错筹码，当确认投资决策有效时再进行大笔投资；对第二种批评的对策是试错检验对象的选择，不是具体的投资对象(如具体的股票)，而是投资的规律与哲学的检验(如高科技股票的投资规律)。
最后，掌握投资决策时间是克服心理弱点的补充。
人类的心理本性具有极强的时间敏感性，在理性与感性的斗争中，随着时间的推移，感性往往由强变弱，理性往往由弱变强。人类大多数的错误都是出现在一时冲动的情形下，人们常常会在一时冲动下做了某种行为，事后又追悔莫及。
这主要是因为人们在事情刚刚发生之时，会夸大导致事情发生的因素，而忽视其他因素的重要性，造成思维偏见与决策失误。这在人类投资活动中也很常见，大涨与大跌都会在发生之时极大地刺激人们的神经，调动人们的情绪，使人们产生买入与卖出的冲动，而冲动情况下作出的投资决策往往是不明智的。因此，在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
人类学家告诉我们：人类最强的三个欲望分别是财富、地位和权力，而财富则排在三个欲望之首。
正在或者准备走价值投资之路的朋友或许都在思考这样一个问题：价值投资一定能让我们实现自己的财富梦想吗？对于这样一个问题，价值投资实践的集大成者巴菲特是这样说的：“价值投资并不能充分保证我们投资盈利，因为我们不仅要在合理的价格上买入，而且我们买入的公司的未来业绩还要与我们的估计相符。”换句话说，价值投资之路并非坦途，其未来其实是充满了诸多变数和不确定性，从这一点说，价值投资与其他的投资(投机)路径没有太多的分别。然而，老巴最后话锋一转：“但是价值投资给我们提供了走向真正成功的唯一机会。”大师毕竟是大师，话语简洁，掷地有声。这是一个成功者所下的断语，价值投资者在细节上的一切探讨都是以信仰这句话为前提的。
一、 关于价值
人类财富史上有文字记载的最早的财富交换发生在古巴比伦和古埃及国王之间。交换的财富包括布匹、香料、家具、青铜器、珠宝和黄金。这样大规模的财富交换无疑蕴含着价值判断的逻辑在内。
而对价值的判断恰恰是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。
价值投资，简而言之，就是在一家公司的市场价格相对于它的内在价值大打折扣时买入其股份。内在价值在理论上的定义就是一家企业在其余下的寿命史中可以产生的现金的折现值。但是问题来了，一家企业余下的寿命史到底有多长？能产生多少现金？这本身就充满了玄念，以这个充满了玄念的现金流为基础而形成的判断有多大的可信度呢? 再有，折现率该如何确定？在不同的时点、不同的投资人会有不同选择，据以计算的价值必然是失之毫厘、差之千里。如果不能做到精确的价值评估，又怎能知道应该在什么价位购买股票呢？如果说这是价值投资人最大的困惑所在，当不为过。
关于内存价值的计算，巴菲特最主要的合伙人查理"芒格曾说过一句耐人寻味的话：巴菲特常常提到现金流量，但我却从未看到他做过什么计算。
老巴本人对于内在价值的计算最为详细的叙述出现在96年致伯克希尔股东的信中：“内在价值是估计值，而不是精确值，而且它还是在利率变化或者对未来现金流的预测修正时必须相应改变的估计值。此外，两个人根据完全相同的互助组事实进行估值，几乎总是不可避免地得出至少是略有不同的内在价值的估计值，即使对于我和查理来说也是如此，这正是我们从不对外公布我们对内在价值估计值的一个原因。”
此外，老巴还坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分股票的内在价值还有点自信，但也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。价值评估既是艺术，又是科学。”
与一些市场人士的想法不同，笔者更倾向于认为老巴这番话是真的坦诚而非卖关子。因为我们常常看到，在市场上，过度追求精确量化往往不会带来好的后果。最典型的例子莫过于大名鼎鼎的美国LTCM(长期资本管理公司)。从运作方式上看，LTCM是通过运用电脑建立数量模型分析金融工具价格，再利用不同证券的市场价格差异进行操作，是投资界精确量化的祖师，却也难逃最终失败命运。
金融投资，须观其形、辨其意、审其时、度其势；深得阴阳互化之妙，常怀敬畏自然之心。法法相济，法无定法，远非单纯的模型和程式化操作所能涵盖。在内在价值评估方面，大抵也是如此吧。或许，但凡介于科学和艺术层面之间的东西，都要用到中国古人说的一句话：运用之妙，存乎一心。老巴爱引用凯恩斯的一句话 “宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误”，也是异曲同工。尽管我们相信在某一个特定的时空，某一公司的价值只有一个，我们也只能力求最大限度地逼进它。而赢家却总是相对的。
二、 关于安全边际
老巴曾在他的老师、现代证券分析创始人、人称华尔街教父的格雷厄姆那里学到两条投资规则：第一条：永远不要亏损；第二条：永远不要忘记第一条。
那么，如何才能做到不亏损呢？
格雷厄姆自己给出的答案是：“我大胆地将成功投资的秘诀精炼成四个字的座右铭：安全边际。”
作为为价值投资的核心概念，如果说安全边际在整个价值投资领域中处于至高无上的地位，并不为过。它的定义非常简单而朴素：实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差，换一种更通俗的说法，安全边际就是价值与价格相比被低估的程度或幅度。根据定义，只有当价值被低估的时候才存在安全边际或安全边际为正，当价值与价格相当的时候安全边际为零，而当价值被高估的时候不存在安全边际或安全边际为负。价值投资者只对价值被低估特别是被严重低估的对象感兴趣。安全边际不保证能避免损失，但能保证获利的机会比损失的机会更多。
凡事喜欢精确的同志可能要再次失望了：原来与内在价值一样，所谓的安全边际也是一个模糊的概念，比如仅从定义我们不能确定实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差达到什么程度才能说安全边际就是足够，就可以买入股票。与内在价值一样，对安全边际的理解与应用也仍然是一个需要艺术掌握的东西。
巴非特指出：“我们的股票投资策略持续有效的前提是，我们可以以具有吸引力的价格买到有吸引力的股票。对投资人来说，买入一家优秀公司的股票时支付过高的价格，将抵消这家绩优企业未来十年所创造的价值。”这就是说，忽视安全边际，即使买入优秀企业的股票，也会因买价过高而难以盈利。这一点，对于当今的中国股市，尤具警醒作用。
可以说，安全边际在理念上与传统的“富贵险中求”投资观念是截然相反的。它告诉你：如果你想要谋发达你一定不要冒风险。在每次做投资决策或投资活动中，我们一定是希望我们的风险降到最小，同时希望每次投资活动中都能取得收益的最大化。
如果想要的安全边际迟迟不来怎么办呢？那么只有两个字：等待。在我们一生的投资过程中，我们不希望也不需要每天都去做交易，很多时候我们会手持现金，耐心等待，由于市场交易群体的无理性，在不确定的时间段内，比如三至五年的周期里，总会等到一个完美的高安全边际的时刻，换句话说，市场的无效性总会带来价值低估的机会，那么这个时候就是你出手的时候。就如非洲草原的狮子，它在没有猎物的时候更多的是在草丛中慢慢的等，很有耐心的观察周围情况，直到猎物进入伏击范围才迅疾出手。如果你的投资组合里累计了很多次这样的投资后，从长期看，你一定会取得远远超出市场回报的机会。所以安全边际的核心就在把握风险和收益的关系。
从防御角度说，对安全边际的掌握更多是一种生存的艺术。投资如行军打仗，首先确保不被敌人消灭掉是作战的第一要素，否则一切都将无从谈起。这一点在牛市氛围中，在泡沫化严重的市场里，显得尤为重要。
安全边际并不是孤立的，它是以“内在价值”为基础的，在“内在价值”的计算中，预期收益率是最有弹性的参数，预期收益率的上升和安全边际的扩大都趋向了一个结果，那就是相对低的买入价格。而就操作的层面而言，阶段性的仓位比例控制也可以视为运用安全边际的辅佐手段。
格雷厄姆和巴菲特这两个大师级的人物之所以都非常强调安全边际原则，之所以都要求一定的安全边际，其根本原因就在于，影响股票市场价格和公司经营的因素非常庞杂，而相对来说，人的预测能力是非常有限的，很容易出现预测失误。而安全边际则是对投资者自身能力的有限性、股票市场波动巨大的不确定性的一种预防和保险。有了较大的安全边际，即使我们对公司价值的评估有一定误差、市场价格在较长时间内仍低于价值、公司发展受到暂时的挫折，都不会妨碍我们投资资本的安全性以及保证我们取得最低程度的满意报酬率。这就是安全边际原则的精髓所在。
三、 价值投资和市场波动
早知道波动总是难免的，又何必劳心伤神。
“市场从来不是一台根据证券的内在品质而精确地客观地记录其价值的计量器，而是汇集了无数人部分出于理性(事实)部分出于感性(理念和观点)的选择的投票器。”这就是市场波动的由来。
格雷厄姆在去世前几个月的时候指出：“如果说我在华尔街60多年的经验中发现过什么的话，那就是从来没有人能够成功地预测股市波动。”
市场的状态是事实和想象的统一体。股价也是这样。资金量的大小是决定股价的重要因素。巨量资金流动的背后是理念和观点在刺激人们的想象，而且会达到疯狂，而过分脱离事实的想象和疯狂会造就悲剧。
格雷厄姆有一个“旅鼠故事”的著名寓言讲的就是这种悲剧：一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对于市场的价格波动，格雷厄姆还有一个著名的“市场先生”的寓言：就是设想自己在与一个叫市场先生的人进行股票交易，市场先生的特点是情绪很不稳定。因此，在他高兴的日子里，他会报出较高的价格，相反懊恼时，就会报出很低的价格。按现在通行的话说，市场常常会犯错。而一个出色的价值投资者会充分利用这种错误。设想有一天交易的时候，“市场先生”突然情绪沮丧，报出了一个低得离谱的价格，那么在这种情况下，投机客常常会按照“鳄鱼原则”的要求止损离场，而价值投资者呢？恰恰相反，会继续加码买入！这就是两种不同的价值观主导下的两种截然相反的交易策略。这就是巴菲特告诫我们的：要把市场波动看作你的朋友而不是敌人。事实上，仅以老巴旗下的伯克希尔公司来说，在1973年－1974年的经济衰退期间，它的股票价格从每股90美元跌至每股40美元。在1987年的股灾中，股票价格从每股大约4000美元跌至3000美元。在1990年－1991年的海湾战争期间，它再次遭到重创，股票价格从每股8900美元急剧跌至5500美元。在1998年－2000年期间，伯克希尔公司宣布收购通用再保险公司(GeneralRe)之后，它的股价也从1998年中期的每股大约80000美元跌至2000年初的40800美元。可以想见，在这些时候，巴菲特在股票投资方面所受的沉重打击和巨大精神压力，按照“鳄鱼原则”，巴菲特应该不知道止损离场多少次了，但那样的话，我们也不会看到今天的股神。
巴菲特法则是沃伦"巴菲特42年成功投资生涯一直秉持的不二法则，核心精髓包括价值投资、边际安全原则、集中投资组合、长期持有股权等，秉持巴菲特法则的投资者如凯恩斯(Keynesian)、芒格(Monger)等都获得超越大盘的投资回报。考虑到美国股市在过去20年增长10倍的大牛市背景下，仍然有90%的投资者未能盈利的严峻事实，长期获得超越大盘的投资回报几乎是不可能完成的任务，历史证明巴菲特法则是投资界的黄金法则。
然而，尽管巴菲特法则为广大投资界人士所熟知，但成功应用巴菲特法则获得成功的人还是凤毛麟角。其原因到底何在？
巴菲特法则执行的最大难点在两个方面，一是对人类本性的理解与超越，二是对投资价值判断的专业性。前者涉及人类心理的奥秘，后者涉及对股票背后商业运营的洞察力。任何投资市场背后都是活生生的人在推动，因而对他们心理的研究是洞察投资市场的独特视角。
直觉判断与四大错觉思维
“我和查理还没学会如何解决公司的难题，我们的成功在于我们集中力量于我们能跨越的一尺栅栏上，而不是发现了跨越七尺栅栏的方法。”
巴菲特还坚持投资于自己所熟悉的行业，他承认自己不投资于高科技公司的原因是自己没有能力理解和评价它们
心理学的一个重大发现就是人类的直觉，正如法国哲学家帕斯卡尔所说：“心灵活动有其自身原因，而理性却无法知晓。”人类的思维、记忆、态度都是同时在两个水平上运行的，一个是有意识和有意图的，另一个是无意识和自动的。我们的所知比我们知道自己所知的还要多。
直觉是人类在长期进化中基因优化的结果，是人类反应及处理问题时的心理捷径。股市中恐惧、贪婪、乐观、悲观等情绪均是无意识的自动的直觉反映，是人类的本性。为什么人们会疯狂地追涨(贪婪)、杀跌(恐惧)？为什么股市不断重演非理性繁荣与非理性萧条的循环？就是因为直觉和本性的原因。
任何事物都存在两面性，直觉判断一方面节省了人类的心智资源，另一方面也为人类带来了错觉思维。由于直觉存在敏感性、即时性、既定模式反应等特征，直觉在进行判断与决策时有着明显的局限性，从而使人们产生了事后聪明偏见、过度敏感效应、信念固着现象、过度自信倾向等错误思维，这在股市投资决策中充分反映了出来。
1.事后聪明偏见
所谓事后聪明偏见是指人们往往倾向于利用事件发生之后的结果去理解事件发生的原因及过程。“事后诸葛亮”就是指这一现象。人们往往会忽视事后理解的天然优势，而进一步贬低事前决策的复杂性与难度。事后聪明偏见是普遍存在的，是人性的一部分，这一错觉思维使人们倾向于高估自身的能力，而低估他人的能力。
巴菲特在投资中尽量避免犯这样的错误，事实上20世纪60年代对伯克夏"哈撒韦的投资(当年主要以纺织业为主)给了巴菲特非常大的教训，20世纪80 年代他被迫将持续亏损的纺织业务关闭。这形成了巴菲特非常重要的投资准则，即投资于保持一贯经营原则的公司，避开陷入困境的公司。不要高估自己，指望自己比该公司的经营者做得更好，能够扭亏为盈。“我和查理还没学会如何解决公司的难题，”巴菲特承认，“但是我们学会了如何避开难题，我们的成功在于我们集中力量于我们能跨越的一尺栅栏上，而不是发现了跨越七尺栅栏的方法。”
2.过度敏感效应
过度敏感效应是指人们在心理上倾向于高估与夸大刚刚发生的事件的影响因素，而低估影响整体系统的其他因素的作用，从而作出错误判断，并对此作出过度的行为反应。敏感能使人们及时发现异常现象并加快对此的反应速度，但也会加大反应的幅度，使反应过分。
以美国“9"11”事件为例。“9"11”事件后，恐怖分子劫持飞机撞毁纽约世贸双塔的情景极大刺激了美国公众的神经，于是人们大大高估了航空旅行的危险性，倾向于选择其他旅行方式，美国航空业随之进入大萧条期。然而，数据统计显示，即使考虑到“9"11”事件的航空灾难，航空旅行也是所有旅行方式中最安全的，其事故率是火车旅行的三分之一。过度敏感效应在股票市场投资中反映得淋漓尽致，在股市上涨时，人们往往过分乐观，倾向于相信大牛市是永无尽头的，于是过分推高了股票价格；而股市下跌时，人们往往过分悲观，倾向于相信大熊市是不可避免的，于是过分打压了股票的价格。巴菲特认为正是人们的非理性行为使得股票价格围绕其价值进行过分的波动，为投资带来机会。他认为好的投资者应当利用这一现象，在别人贪婪时恐惧(1969年当巴菲特发现股票市场中人们已经陷入疯狂时果断抛售了所有股票，并解散了投资基金)，在别人恐惧时贪婪(在1973、1974年美国股市大幅下跌进入熊市后，巴菲特又逢低分批建仓成功抄底)。巴菲特认为，“股票市场下跌在某种情况下不是坏事，投资机会正是从投资退潮中显露出来。”
3.信念固着现象
信念固着现象是指人们一旦对某项事物建立了某种信念，尤其是为它建立了一个理论支持体系，那么就很难打破人们的这一看法，即使是相反的证据与信息出现时他们也往往视而不见。从心理学的角度看，人们越是极力想证明自己的理论与解释是正确的，就越是对挑战自己信念的信息封闭。
信念固着现象是股票投资中非常重要的心理现象，股票投资者往往倾向于预测股市的涨跌与股票价格的波动，各类证券分析机构也通过预测股价波动获取收益。然而，人们往往会落入信念固着的思维陷阱，在满仓时忽视下跌信号的出现，而在空仓时忽视上涨因素的累积。巴菲特看透了这一思维误区，主张理解投资与投机差异，认为应理性投资而不应非理性投机。应当说，这就是巴菲特法则的思想精髓——价值投资。
凯恩斯、格雷厄姆及巴菲特都曾解释过投资与投机的差异。凯恩斯认为：“投资是预测资产未来收益的活动，而投机是预测市场心理的活动。”对格雷厄姆来说，“投资操作就是基于透彻的分析，确保本金的安全并能获得满意的回报。不能满足这个要求的操作就是投机。”巴菲特相信：“如果你是投资者，你所关注的就是资产——在我们这里是指公司——未来的发展变化。如果你是投机者，你主要预测独立于公司的价格变化。”以上述标准来看，中国股市目前还是一个投机气氛浓厚的市场。
4.过度自信倾向
过度自信倾向是指人们在对过去知识进行判断中存在智力自负现象，这种现象会影响对目前知识的评价和未来行为的预测。尽管我们知道自己过去出过错，但我们对未来的预期仍然相当乐观。造成过度自信倾向的主要原因是人们往往倾向于在他们完全正确的时刻回忆自己的错误判断，从而认为这只是偶然发生的事件，与他们的能力缺陷无关。
过度自信倾向几乎影响了每一个人，约翰逊的过度自信造成了美国20世纪60年代陷入了越南战争的泥潭，尼克"里森的过度自信造成了百年巴林银行的倒闭。可以说过度自信倾向是人类理性决策的最大敌人，这一倾向还容易使人们产生控制错觉，就如赌徒，一旦赢了就归因于自己的赌技与预见力，一旦输了就认为 “差一点就成了，或偶然倒霉”。而从理性角度来看，进行赌博与购买彩票从概率上来说是一场必输的游戏，然而还是有无数赌徒与彩民由于控制错觉而沉迷于此。
真正摆脱过度自信倾向，超越自己是非常不容易的事。绝大多数的股票投资人都坚信自己能够判断出大盘的涨跌趋势，并通过“逢低买入与逢高卖出”来获取收益，自己的收益将远远超出大盘指数的涨幅。然而具有讽刺意味的是，据统计90%的投资者(包括机构投资者)投资收益落后于大盘指数的增长，尽管这一统计数据是如此明显的证据，人们还是相信自己有能力成为那部分10%的投资者，而拒绝接受傻瓜似的股指基金组合，认为这是对自我智力的羞辱。巴菲特清楚认识到自己的局限性，认为大盘是无法预测的，能够把握的是对股票背后公司价值的评价与未来收益的预测，因此他从不期望于通过预测大盘来获益。
此外，巴菲特还坚持投资于自己所熟悉的行业，他承认自己不投资于高科技公司的原因是自己没有能力理解和评价它们。在伯克夏"哈撒韦公司1998年年会上他说：“我很敬佩安迪"格罗夫和比尔"盖茨，而且希望把这种敬佩通过资金支持他们转化成行动。但是说到微软与英特尔，我不知道十年后的世界是什么样的，而且我也不喜欢玩那种对方占优势的游戏。我花所有的时间考虑技术，但我仍然可能是分析这个行业的第100、第1000甚至第10000个聪明的人。确实有人能分析这个行业，但是我不行。”
从众与群体极化
他不仅在投资决策中坚持独立思考，还在被投资公司中重用抵制行业惯性的经营者
从众是指人们受他人影响而改变自己的行为与信念。旅鼠行动是经典的从众案例，这种生长在北极的小动物每当种群繁殖到一定程度就会集体跳海，自杀身亡。社会心理学家所做的从众研究试验中，人类也表现出了强烈的从众倾向。
从众可以引发群体极化效应，即群体成员的相互影响可以强化群体成员最初的观点与信念。群体极化效应的产生原因有两条，一是群体成员倾向于与其他成员保持行为与信念的一致，以获取群体对他的认可及团体归属感；二是群体成员在对需要决策的事件拿不准的时候，模仿与顺从他人的行为与信念往往是安全的。
从众与群体极化效应在人类的投资活动中充分体现了出来。人们的投资行为往往会受到他人的影响，当大多数投资者都陷入贪婪的疯狂而拼命追涨时，很少有投资者能冷静而理智地抵制购买的诱惑；而当大多数投资者都陷入恐惧之中而拼命杀跌时，也很少有投资者能抵制抛售的冲动。这种从众的压力是非常巨大的，然而，明智的投资决策往往是“预料之外而情理之中”的决策，大家都看中的热点板块的投资价值通常已经提前透支了，而聪明的投资者一般会不断观察与跟踪具有投资价值的股票，当它的股价下跌到合理的区间范围之内时(被大多数投资者忽视)，就会果断吃进。很显然，这样做不仅需要专业的价值评估水平，更需要抵制从众压力的坚定意志与敢为天下先的巨大勇气。巴菲特的老师格雷厄姆曾经教导他要从股市的情感漩涡中拔出来，要发现大多数投资者的不理智行为，他们购买股票不是基于逻辑，而是基于情感。
如果你在正确的判断基础上获得符合逻辑的结论，那么不要因别人与你的意见不一致而放弃，“你的正确或错误都不会是因为别人和你不一致，你之所以正确是因为你的数据与逻辑推理正确。”巴菲特遵循了老师的教导，他不仅在投资决策中坚持独立思考，还在被投资公司中重用抵制行业惯性的经营者，并将抵制行业惯性作为他所归纳的12条最重要的投资准则之一。在对NotreDame商学院的学生发表演讲时，他归纳了37家投资银行的失败原因：“他们为什么有这样的结局呢？我来告诉你们，那就是愚蠢的模仿同行的行为。”
根据合理的数据与逻辑得出的理性判断，从不为他人的观点所动；他只投资于自己搞得懂的产业与公司，在公司调研上亲力亲为，从不借助他人的判断。他将投资活动比喻为打棒球，他认为投资比打棒球容易，打棒球是没有选择地击打投过来的每一个球，而投资只需要选择击打那些最有把握击中的球就可以了，合适的球没投过来之前你只需要躺着休息就可以了。可以说，巴菲特是少数有理性与勇气爬出虚假信息洞穴获得理性光明的人。
信息洞穴与事实真相
他从不阅读华尔街的所谓权威证券分析，也不热衷到处收集影响股市的小道消息
国外一些研究伊拉克问题的专家指出，伊拉克前总统萨达姆"侯赛因出身平民，精明能干，通过奋斗夺取了国家最高权力。但他作出了两次关键性的重大决策失误，导致付出生命的代价。一次是入侵科威特，这是基于美国不会武力干预的判断；第二次是在核武问题上采取强硬立场，这是基于对自身武装力量的过高估计。为什么像萨达姆这样精明的人会犯这种错误呢？专家分析，萨达姆实际上是一个信息洞穴人，他所接触到的信息都被伊拉克高级官员所垄断，而这些官员往往或是依据自身利益来歪曲、加工与屏蔽信息，或是投其所好，报喜不报忧，以此保住官位。于是萨达姆呆在虚假信息的洞穴中，看不清洞穴外的事实真相，作出基于错误信息的错误判断与决策也就理所当然了。
投资者是典型的信息洞穴人，投资市场上活跃着交易所、上市公司大股东及管理层、公募与私募基金、证券公司、普通股民、投资咨询机构、媒体、银行、律师及审计事务所等主体，构成了一个巨大的生态系统，每个个体都处于食物链的某一个环节，为了各自的切身利益，时常有意识或下意识地发布、制造、夸大、歪曲信息。由于信息发布者“裁剪”信息的内容，不少人被虚假或片面信息所操纵，作出错误的投资决策。典型的事例是上市公司高管与庄家相互勾结，配合庄家对股价的操纵而制作财务数据、发布虚假消息，最终受损的是普通散户。此外，普通投资者对庞杂信息的识别缺乏专业知识的支持，更容易受到愚弄。例如前一阶段我国拟发行1.55万亿特别国债的紧缩效应就被高估，而我国今年上半年看似不高的CPI指数(3.2个百分点)使普通投资者低估了通胀的可能性，这主要是由于我国CPI指数的构成比例不合理所致。
巴菲特清楚地认识到这一点，他从不阅读华尔街的所谓权威证券分析，也不热衷到处收集影响股市的小道消息，同样不天天紧张地盯着盘面的变化，这使得他的投资工作非常轻松，他有时甚至在家中一边享受天伦之乐、一边工作，美国股市上世纪80年代末崩盘的那一天他甚至无暇关注股市。巴菲特只相信自己。
如何应对人性的弱点
在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
客观地说，直觉、从众等人类本性并不是绝对的缺点，我们的主观体验是构成人性的材料，它是人类对艺术和音乐、友谊与爱情、神秘性与宗教体验的感受源泉。但必须承认，上述人类本性会造成错觉思维、错误判断和错误行为，这一现象在投资活动中充分表现出来。巴菲特法则的核心并不是他所创立的12条投资法则，任何所谓投资真经都会随着时间的流逝而失灵，只有其背后的真正原则与规律才会永恒，巴菲特在投资活动中对人性心理弱点的克服与利用正是这种永恒的法则与逻辑。人性之所以被称为人性，就是因其源自于自身并难以克服，但仍然有应对之道，人们可以从态度、反思、试错与时间四个维度来修炼自己，克服人性弱点，获取满意的投资收益。
首先，正确的态度是克服心理弱点的基础。
我们应当正视与承认人类具有局限性这一事实，这种对人类能力的自谦与怀疑是科学与宗教的核心所在。社会心理学家戴维"迈尔斯对此有精彩的论述，“科学同样包括直觉和严格检验的相互影响。从错觉中寻找现实需要开放的好奇心与冷静的头脑。以下观点被证明是对待生活的正确态度：批判而不愤世嫉俗，好奇而不受蒙蔽，开放而不被操纵。”在投资活动中树立这一态度同样是至关重要的，这需要保持中庸避免极端。如果不能保持好奇与开放的心态，就不能最大限度获取投资决策相关的信息，也就不能及早发现环境的转变与新的规律的形成，也就不能抓住转瞬即逝的投资机会；而如果不能以批判的态度对待一切信息，就容易受到他人的蒙蔽与操纵，从而陷入无数的投资陷阱。
其次，反思是克服心理弱点的方法。
正如苏格拉底的旷世名言所说：“不加审视的生活是不值得过的。”反思与总结是人类进步的源泉，也是提升投资活动与投资决策成功率的重要方法。法国哲学家帕斯卡尔认识到，“任何一个单独的真理都是不充分的，因为世界是很复杂的。任何一个真理如果脱离了和它互补的真理，就只能算是部分真理而已。”世上没有绝对正确的事情，在做任何投资决策之前，不要先入为主与过分自信，务必从反对这一投资决策的角度进行思考，试着提出反对的道理与理由，或是咨询其他投资人的意见，尤其重视反对者的意见，这种反思与多重思考会极大地完善、丰富与修正你的投资决策，提高投资决策的质量。
再次，试错是克服心理弱点的手段。
人类是有限理性的，而投资市场是错综复杂与不断变化的，人们不可能穷尽投资决策所需的一切信息与规律，因此有效检验投资决策正确与否的手段就是试错，对可能的投资方法与对象进行尝试性投资，将投资手段与方法放到实践中进行检验。对试错的批评可能在于两点，一是认为试错的代价过于高昂，二是投资的时效性，当发现投资机会时该机会已丧失。对第一种批评的对策是将降低试错筹码，当确认投资决策有效时再进行大笔投资；对第二种批评的对策是试错检验对象的选择，不是具体的投资对象(如具体的股票)，而是投资的规律与哲学的检验(如高科技股票的投资规律)。
最后，掌握投资决策时间是克服心理弱点的补充。
人类的心理本性具有极强的时间敏感性，在理性与感性的斗争中，随着时间的推移，感性往往由强变弱，理性往往由弱变强。人类大多数的错误都是出现在一时冲动的情形下，人们常常会在一时冲动下做了某种行为，事后又追悔莫及。
这主要是因为人们在事情刚刚发生之时，会夸大导致事情发生的因素，而忽视其他因素的重要性，造成思维偏见与决策失误。这在人类投资活动中也很常见，大涨与大跌都会在发生之时极大地刺激人们的神经，调动人们的情绪，使人们产生买入与卖出的冲动，而冲动情况下作出的投资决策往往是不明智的。因此，在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
人类学家告诉我们：人类最强的三个欲望分别是财富、地位和权力，而财富则排在三个欲望之首。
正在或者准备走价值投资之路的朋友或许都在思考这样一个问题：价值投资一定能让我们实现自己的财富梦想吗？对于这样一个问题，价值投资实践的集大成者巴菲特是这样说的：“价值投资并不能充分保证我们投资盈利，因为我们不仅要在合理的价格上买入，而且我们买入的公司的未来业绩还要与我们的估计相符。”换句话说，价值投资之路并非坦途，其未来其实是充满了诸多变数和不确定性，从这一点说，价值投资与其他的投资(投机)路径没有太多的分别。然而，老巴最后话锋一转：“但是价值投资给我们提供了走向真正成功的唯一机会。”大师毕竟是大师，话语简洁，掷地有声。这是一个成功者所下的断语，价值投资者在细节上的一切探讨都是以信仰这句话为前提的。
一、 关于价值
人类财富史上有文字记载的最早的财富交换发生在古巴比伦和古埃及国王之间。交换的财富包括布匹、香料、家具、青铜器、珠宝和黄金。这样大规模的财富交换无疑蕴含着价值判断的逻辑在内。
而对价值的判断恰恰是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。
价值投资，简而言之，就是在一家公司的市场价格相对于它的内在价值大打折扣时买入其股份。内在价值在理论上的定义就是一家企业在其余下的寿命史中可以产生的现金的折现值。但是问题来了，一家企业余下的寿命史到底有多长？能产生多少现金？这本身就充满了玄念，以这个充满了玄念的现金流为基础而形成的判断有多大的可信度呢? 再有，折现率该如何确定？在不同的时点、不同的投资人会有不同选择，据以计算的价值必然是失之毫厘、差之千里。如果不能做到精确的价值评估，又怎能知道应该在什么价位购买股票呢？如果说这是价值投资人最大的困惑所在，当不为过。
关于内存价值的计算，巴菲特最主要的合伙人查理"芒格曾说过一句耐人寻味的话：巴菲特常常提到现金流量，但我却从未看到他做过什么计算。
老巴本人对于内在价值的计算最为详细的叙述出现在96年致伯克希尔股东的信中：“内在价值是估计值，而不是精确值，而且它还是在利率变化或者对未来现金流的预测修正时必须相应改变的估计值。此外，两个人根据完全相同的互助组事实进行估值，几乎总是不可避免地得出至少是略有不同的内在价值的估计值，即使对于我和查理来说也是如此，这正是我们从不对外公布我们对内在价值估计值的一个原因。”
此外，老巴还坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分股票的内在价值还有点自信，但也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。价值评估既是艺术，又是科学。”
与一些市场人士的想法不同，笔者更倾向于认为老巴这番话是真的坦诚而非卖关子。因为我们常常看到，在市场上，过度追求精确量化往往不会带来好的后果。最典型的例子莫过于大名鼎鼎的美国LTCM(长期资本管理公司)。从运作方式上看，LTCM是通过运用电脑建立数量模型分析金融工具价格，再利用不同证券的市场价格差异进行操作，是投资界精确量化的祖师，却也难逃最终失败命运。
金融投资，须观其形、辨其意、审其时、度其势；深得阴阳互化之妙，常怀敬畏自然之心。法法相济，法无定法，远非单纯的模型和程式化操作所能涵盖。在内在价值评估方面，大抵也是如此吧。或许，但凡介于科学和艺术层面之间的东西，都要用到中国古人说的一句话：运用之妙，存乎一心。老巴爱引用凯恩斯的一句话 “宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误”，也是异曲同工。尽管我们相信在某一个特定的时空，某一公司的价值只有一个，我们也只能力求最大限度地逼进它。而赢家却总是相对的。
二、 关于安全边际
老巴曾在他的老师、现代证券分析创始人、人称华尔街教父的格雷厄姆那里学到两条投资规则：第一条：永远不要亏损；第二条：永远不要忘记第一条。
那么，如何才能做到不亏损呢？
格雷厄姆自己给出的答案是：“我大胆地将成功投资的秘诀精炼成四个字的座右铭：安全边际。”
作为为价值投资的核心概念，如果说安全边际在整个价值投资领域中处于至高无上的地位，并不为过。它的定义非常简单而朴素：实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差，换一种更通俗的说法，安全边际就是价值与价格相比被低估的程度或幅度。根据定义，只有当价值被低估的时候才存在安全边际或安全边际为正，当价值与价格相当的时候安全边际为零，而当价值被高估的时候不存在安全边际或安全边际为负。价值投资者只对价值被低估特别是被严重低估的对象感兴趣。安全边际不保证能避免损失，但能保证获利的机会比损失的机会更多。
凡事喜欢精确的同志可能要再次失望了：原来与内在价值一样，所谓的安全边际也是一个模糊的概念，比如仅从定义我们不能确定实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差达到什么程度才能说安全边际就是足够，就可以买入股票。与内在价值一样，对安全边际的理解与应用也仍然是一个需要艺术掌握的东西。
巴非特指出：“我们的股票投资策略持续有效的前提是，我们可以以具有吸引力的价格买到有吸引力的股票。对投资人来说，买入一家优秀公司的股票时支付过高的价格，将抵消这家绩优企业未来十年所创造的价值。”这就是说，忽视安全边际，即使买入优秀企业的股票，也会因买价过高而难以盈利。这一点，对于当今的中国股市，尤具警醒作用。
可以说，安全边际在理念上与传统的“富贵险中求”投资观念是截然相反的。它告诉你：如果你想要谋发达你一定不要冒风险。在每次做投资决策或投资活动中，我们一定是希望我们的风险降到最小，同时希望每次投资活动中都能取得收益的最大化。
如果想要的安全边际迟迟不来怎么办呢？那么只有两个字：等待。在我们一生的投资过程中，我们不希望也不需要每天都去做交易，很多时候我们会手持现金，耐心等待，由于市场交易群体的无理性，在不确定的时间段内，比如三至五年的周期里，总会等到一个完美的高安全边际的时刻，换句话说，市场的无效性总会带来价值低估的机会，那么这个时候就是你出手的时候。就如非洲草原的狮子，它在没有猎物的时候更多的是在草丛中慢慢的等，很有耐心的观察周围情况，直到猎物进入伏击范围才迅疾出手。如果你的投资组合里累计了很多次这样的投资后，从长期看，你一定会取得远远超出市场回报的机会。所以安全边际的核心就在把握风险和收益的关系。
从防御角度说，对安全边际的掌握更多是一种生存的艺术。投资如行军打仗，首先确保不被敌人消灭掉是作战的第一要素，否则一切都将无从谈起。这一点在牛市氛围中，在泡沫化严重的市场里，显得尤为重要。
安全边际并不是孤立的，它是以“内在价值”为基础的，在“内在价值”的计算中，预期收益率是最有弹性的参数，预期收益率的上升和安全边际的扩大都趋向了一个结果，那就是相对低的买入价格。而就操作的层面而言，阶段性的仓位比例控制也可以视为运用安全边际的辅佐手段。
格雷厄姆和巴菲特这两个大师级的人物之所以都非常强调安全边际原则，之所以都要求一定的安全边际，其根本原因就在于，影响股票市场价格和公司经营的因素非常庞杂，而相对来说，人的预测能力是非常有限的，很容易出现预测失误。而安全边际则是对投资者自身能力的有限性、股票市场波动巨大的不确定性的一种预防和保险。有了较大的安全边际，即使我们对公司价值的评估有一定误差、市场价格在较长时间内仍低于价值、公司发展受到暂时的挫折，都不会妨碍我们投资资本的安全性以及保证我们取得最低程度的满意报酬率。这就是安全边际原则的精髓所在。
三、 价值投资和市场波动
早知道波动总是难免的，又何必劳心伤神。
“市场从来不是一台根据证券的内在品质而精确地客观地记录其价值的计量器，而是汇集了无数人部分出于理性(事实)部分出于感性(理念和观点)的选择的投票器。”这就是市场波动的由来。
格雷厄姆在去世前几个月的时候指出：“如果说我在华尔街60多年的经验中发现过什么的话，那就是从来没有人能够成功地预测股市波动。”
市场的状态是事实和想象的统一体。股价也是这样。资金量的大小是决定股价的重要因素。巨量资金流动的背后是理念和观点在刺激人们的想象，而且会达到疯狂，而过分脱离事实的想象和疯狂会造就悲剧。
格雷厄姆有一个“旅鼠故事”的著名寓言讲的就是这种悲剧：一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对于市场的价格波动，格雷厄姆还有一个著名的“市场先生”的寓言：就是设想自己在与一个叫市场先生的人进行股票交易，市场先生的特点是情绪很不稳定。因此，在他高兴的日子里，他会报出较高的价格，相反懊恼时，就会报出很低的价格。按现在通行的话说，市场常常会犯错。而一个出色的价值投资者会充分利用这种错误。设想有一天交易的时候，“市场先生”突然情绪沮丧，报出了一个低得离谱的价格，那么在这种情况下，投机客常常会按照“鳄鱼原则”的要求止损离场，而价值投资者呢？恰恰相反，会继续加码买入！这就是两种不同的价值观主导下的两种截然相反的交易策略。这就是巴菲特告诫我们的：要把市场波动看作你的朋友而不是敌人。事实上，仅以老巴旗下的伯克希尔公司来说，在1973年－1974年的经济衰退期间，它的股票价格从每股90美元跌至每股40美元。在1987年的股灾中，股票价格从每股大约4000美元跌至3000美元。在1990年－1991年的海湾战争期间，它再次遭到重创，股票价格从每股8900美元急剧跌至5500美元。在1998年－2000年期间，伯克希尔公司宣布收购通用再保险公司(GeneralRe)之后，它的股价也从1998年中期的每股大约80000美元跌至2000年初的40800美元。可以想见，在这些时候，巴菲特在股票投资方面所受的沉重打击和巨大精神压力，按照“鳄鱼原则”，巴菲特应该不知道止损离场多少次了，但那样的话，我们也不会看到今天的股神。
巴菲特：美救市方案可能导致通货膨胀
“股神”巴菲特又出手了。他在《纽约时报》撰文说，虽然美国经济处于“糟糕”境地，但他正在购买美国股票，认为股市长期将上涨。
巴菲特写道，国际金融市场处于混乱状态，问题蔓延至整个经济领域，且呈扩大趋势。今后一段时期，美国失业率将上升，商业活动将出现萧条，金融报道将继续令人恐慌。他说，尽管如此，自己正用个人资金购买美国股票。在这之前，他的个人账户上只有美国政府债券，没有任何股票。“如果股价继续具有吸引力，我将把百分之百的个人资金投入美国股市”。
巴菲特解释说，“恐惧情绪正在蔓延，经验丰富的投资者也不能幸免”。但逆市入场符合他的投资理念，即“别人贪婪时恐惧，别人恐惧时贪婪”。
除了长期看好美国股市之外，巴菲特认为，市场会在投资者情绪和经济走好之前率先走出低谷。他指出，那些持有现金观望的投资者将面临资产缩水的风险。
巴菲特警告说，美国政府救市方案可能导致通货膨胀，投资者持有的现金将随货币投放量增加而贬值。
针对巴菲特的建议是否会吸引投资者购买股票，美国国家广播公司财经频道CNBC做了一个快速调查，结果显示1716名投资者中有68％的人表示认可，剩下的32％的人拒绝了“股神”的建议，他们的评论是“巴菲特只会做对他自己有利的选择”。一些基金经理们的反应更为坦率：“我们没有那么多时间等待，客户们和雇主们现在就要结果，而不是以后。”
从历史经验看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年，正如他自己承认的那样，他并不善于预测市场的短期走势。
巴菲特写道，国际金融市场处于混乱状态，问题蔓延至整个经济领域，且呈扩大趋势。今后一段时期，美国失业率将上升，商业活动将出现萧条，金融报道将继续令人恐慌。他说，尽管如此，自己正用个人资金购买美国股票。在这之前，他的个人账户上只有美国政府债券，没有任何股票。“如果股价继续具有吸引力，我将把百分之百的个人资金投入美国股市”。
巴菲特解释说，“恐惧情绪正在蔓延，经验丰富的投资者也不能幸免”。但逆市入场符合他的投资理念，即“别人贪婪时恐惧，别人恐惧时贪婪”。
除了长期看好美国股市之外，巴菲特认为，市场会在投资者情绪和经济走好之前率先走出低谷。他指出，那些持有现金观望的投资者将面临资产缩水的风险。
巴菲特警告说，美国政府救市方案可能导致通货膨胀，投资者持有的现金将随货币投放量增加而贬值。
针对巴菲特的建议是否会吸引投资者购买股票，美国国家广播公司财经频道CNBC做了一个快速调查，结果显示1716名投资者中有68％的人表示认可，剩下的32％的人拒绝了“股神”的建议，他们的评论是“巴菲特只会做对他自己有利的选择”。一些基金经理们的反应更为坦率：“我们没有那么多时间等待，客户们和雇主们现在就要结果，而不是以后。”
从历史经验看，巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年，正如他自己承认的那样，他并不善于预测市场的短期走势。
Sunday, January 4, 2009
透视"巴菲特式投资心理"招招针对人性弱点
如何应对人性的弱点
在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法
直觉、从众等人类本性并不是绝对的缺点，我们的主观体验是构成人性的材料，它是人类对艺术和音乐、友谊与爱情、神秘性与宗教体验的感受源泉。但必须承认，上述人类本性会造成错觉思维、错误判断和错误行为，这一现象在投资活动中充分表现出来。巴菲特法则的核心并不是他所创立的12条投资法则，任何所谓投资真经都会随着时间的流逝而失灵，只有其背后的真正原则与规律才会永恒，巴菲特在投资活动中对人性心理弱点的克服与利用正是这种永恒的法则与逻辑。人性之所以被称为人性，就是因其源自于自身并难以克服，但仍然有应对之道，人们可以从态度、反思、试错与时间四个维度来修炼自己，克服人性弱点，获取满意的投资收益。
首先，正确的态度是克服心理弱点的基础。我们应当正视与承认人类具有局限性这一事实，这种对人类能力的自谦与怀疑是科学与宗教的核心所在。社会心理学家戴维·迈尔斯对此有精彩的论述，“科学同样包括直觉和严格检验的相互影响。从错觉中寻找现实需要开放的好奇心与冷静的头脑。以下观点被证明是对待生活的正确态度：批判而不愤世嫉俗，好奇而不受蒙蔽，开放而不被操纵。”在投资活动中树立这一态度同样是至关重要的，这需要保持中庸避免极端。如果不能保持好奇与开放的心态，就不能最大限度获取投资决策相关的信息，也就不能及早发现环境的转变与新的规律的形成，也就不能抓住转瞬即逝的投资机会；而如果不能以批判的态度对待一切信息，就容易受到他人的蒙蔽与操纵，从而陷入无数的投资陷阱。
其次，反思是克服心理弱点的方法。正如苏格拉底的旷世名言所说：“不加审视的生活是不值得过的。”反思与总结是人类进步的源泉，也是提升投资活动与投资决策成功率的重要方法。法国哲学家帕斯卡尔认识到，“任何一个单独的真理都是不充分的，因为世界是很复杂的。任何一个真理如果脱离了和它互补的真理，就只能算是部分真理而已。”世上没有绝对正确的事情，在做任何投资决策之前，不要先入为主与过分自信，务必从反对这一投资决策的角度进行思考，试着提出反对的道理与理由，或是咨询其他投资人的意见，尤其重视反对者的意见，这种反思与多重思考会极大地完善、丰富与修正你的投资决策，提高投资决策的质量。
再次，试错是克服心理弱点的手段。人类是有限理性的，而投资市场是错综复杂与不断变化的，人们不可能穷尽投资决策所需的一切信息与规律，因此有效检验投资决策正确与否的手段就是试错，对可能的投资方法与对象进行尝试性投资，将投资手段与方法放到实践中进行检验。对试错的批评可能在于两点，一是认为试错的代价过于高昂，二是投资的时效性，当发现投资机会时该机会已丧失。对第一种批评的对策是将降低试错筹码，当确认投资决策有效时再进行大笔投资；对第二种批评的对策是试错检验对象的选择，不是具体的投资对象（如具体的股票），而是投资的规律与哲学的检验（如高科技股票的投资规律）。
最后，掌握投资决策时间是克服心理弱点的补充。人类的心理本性具有极强的时间敏感性，在理性与感性的斗争中，随着时间的推移，感性往往由强变弱，理性往往由弱变强。人类大多数的错误都是出现在一时冲动的情形下，人们常常会在一时冲动下做了某种行为，事后又追悔莫及。这主要是因为人们在事情刚刚发生之时，会夸大导致事情发生的因素，而忽视其他因素的重要性，造成思维偏见与决策失误。这在人类投资活动中也很常见，大涨与大跌都会在发生之时极大地刺激人们的神经，调动人们的情绪，使人们产生买入与卖出的冲动，而冲动情况下作出的投资决策往往是不明智的。因此，在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法
直觉、从众等人类本性并不是绝对的缺点，我们的主观体验是构成人性的材料，它是人类对艺术和音乐、友谊与爱情、神秘性与宗教体验的感受源泉。但必须承认，上述人类本性会造成错觉思维、错误判断和错误行为，这一现象在投资活动中充分表现出来。巴菲特法则的核心并不是他所创立的12条投资法则，任何所谓投资真经都会随着时间的流逝而失灵，只有其背后的真正原则与规律才会永恒，巴菲特在投资活动中对人性心理弱点的克服与利用正是这种永恒的法则与逻辑。人性之所以被称为人性，就是因其源自于自身并难以克服，但仍然有应对之道，人们可以从态度、反思、试错与时间四个维度来修炼自己，克服人性弱点，获取满意的投资收益。
首先，正确的态度是克服心理弱点的基础。我们应当正视与承认人类具有局限性这一事实，这种对人类能力的自谦与怀疑是科学与宗教的核心所在。社会心理学家戴维·迈尔斯对此有精彩的论述，“科学同样包括直觉和严格检验的相互影响。从错觉中寻找现实需要开放的好奇心与冷静的头脑。以下观点被证明是对待生活的正确态度：批判而不愤世嫉俗，好奇而不受蒙蔽，开放而不被操纵。”在投资活动中树立这一态度同样是至关重要的，这需要保持中庸避免极端。如果不能保持好奇与开放的心态，就不能最大限度获取投资决策相关的信息，也就不能及早发现环境的转变与新的规律的形成，也就不能抓住转瞬即逝的投资机会；而如果不能以批判的态度对待一切信息，就容易受到他人的蒙蔽与操纵，从而陷入无数的投资陷阱。
其次，反思是克服心理弱点的方法。正如苏格拉底的旷世名言所说：“不加审视的生活是不值得过的。”反思与总结是人类进步的源泉，也是提升投资活动与投资决策成功率的重要方法。法国哲学家帕斯卡尔认识到，“任何一个单独的真理都是不充分的，因为世界是很复杂的。任何一个真理如果脱离了和它互补的真理，就只能算是部分真理而已。”世上没有绝对正确的事情，在做任何投资决策之前，不要先入为主与过分自信，务必从反对这一投资决策的角度进行思考，试着提出反对的道理与理由，或是咨询其他投资人的意见，尤其重视反对者的意见，这种反思与多重思考会极大地完善、丰富与修正你的投资决策，提高投资决策的质量。
再次，试错是克服心理弱点的手段。人类是有限理性的，而投资市场是错综复杂与不断变化的，人们不可能穷尽投资决策所需的一切信息与规律，因此有效检验投资决策正确与否的手段就是试错，对可能的投资方法与对象进行尝试性投资，将投资手段与方法放到实践中进行检验。对试错的批评可能在于两点，一是认为试错的代价过于高昂，二是投资的时效性，当发现投资机会时该机会已丧失。对第一种批评的对策是将降低试错筹码，当确认投资决策有效时再进行大笔投资；对第二种批评的对策是试错检验对象的选择，不是具体的投资对象（如具体的股票），而是投资的规律与哲学的检验（如高科技股票的投资规律）。
最后，掌握投资决策时间是克服心理弱点的补充。人类的心理本性具有极强的时间敏感性，在理性与感性的斗争中，随着时间的推移，感性往往由强变弱，理性往往由弱变强。人类大多数的错误都是出现在一时冲动的情形下，人们常常会在一时冲动下做了某种行为，事后又追悔莫及。这主要是因为人们在事情刚刚发生之时，会夸大导致事情发生的因素，而忽视其他因素的重要性，造成思维偏见与决策失误。这在人类投资活动中也很常见，大涨与大跌都会在发生之时极大地刺激人们的神经，调动人们的情绪，使人们产生买入与卖出的冲动，而冲动情况下作出的投资决策往往是不明智的。因此，在可能的情况下延迟投资决策的时间，避免一切冲动情形下的决策行动，应当是保持理性与明智的有效方法。
像巴菲特一样应对通胀
近日，一季度业绩预告一直是市场最大的关注点，在喜报频频的刺激下，指数也有所表现。在等待一季度业绩逐渐明朗的同时，下周我们将得到一季度宏观经济数据。这当中，最触及市场敏感神经的恐怕还是3月份的CPI。8％？8.5％？无论多少，今年通货膨胀的压力恐怕已经成为了我们最大的宏观经济环境。现在的生活中，我们也切实感受到了物价越来越高，住的价格不用说了，高房价成了一道坎，大米、蔬菜、糖、白酒、汽油等等生活消费必需品的价格都在悄悄攀升，每个大城市的居民都能感受到。
我们做个简单的假设，若以每年5%的通货膨胀率计算，今天的100万元，5年后将缩水20%；10年后的实际价值将是59.87万元，损失超过40%；30年后，实际价值变成了21.46万元，近80万元白白蒸发。那么，而今8％的CPI涨幅下，面临的一个现实问题是，如何去应对通货膨胀？面对这个风险，难道普通投资者只有任人宰割吗？
从一个相对较长的历史周期看，战胜通货膨胀的较好的金融工具主要是股票，而不是债券、存款、现金和房地产。还记得20世纪80年代的“万元户”，那时1万元简直就是巨额财富的代名词。如果当时把1万元存入银行，现在账面价值也仅约为5万元。汇丰晋信基金管理公司的十大投资金律中的一条便是，“只有投资才能抵御通货膨胀对财富的侵蚀”。
什么样的股票能超过通货膨胀呢？ 我们看看投资大师巴菲特在通货膨胀背景下如何投资的。70年代初期到中期，美国经济衰退，经济霸主地位开始动摇。到70年代代末，美国经济发展缓慢，出现停滞现象通货膨胀。巴菲特是1972年买下喜斯糖果的。
作为长期价值投资的实践者，巴菲特最为重视的是如何应对通货膨胀。巴菲特表示，他跟芒格总是怀疑通货膨胀有能力重拾过往的气势，他们总觉得通货膨胀在蜇伏当中，而不是全然消失。巴菲特收购企业的时候，考虑的是长期稳定,能创造稳定的现金流，同时经营成本相对较低的传统行业。巴菲特表示，当伯克夏评估要收购哪家企业的时候，通货膨胀总是一项考虑因素，虽然不是唯一的一项因素。通货膨胀对各个企业的影响并不相同。最好的企业有能力维持实质美元的盈余创造力，而且无需为了创造名目成长率而必须进行相对金额的投资。最糟糕的企业是，你必须投入越来越多“投资”才能维持一家“烂公司”。
喜斯糖果在美国通货膨胀时期表现得很出色，因为它不需要现时美元的庞大资本支出。在这样的背景下，喜斯糖果这样一个稳定的产生现金流的企业，恰恰是抵消通货膨胀的最好选择。到这里，我们明白了巴菲特对喜斯糖果这么一个看上去很普通的企业情有独衷，就是因为这家企业可以创造稳定的现金流，而且这个现金流的回报率远远大于通货膨胀的比例，给公司带来的是真正的盈余。今天的中国，这样的企业并不少，值得我们去挖掘。
我们做个简单的假设，若以每年5%的通货膨胀率计算，今天的100万元，5年后将缩水20%；10年后的实际价值将是59.87万元，损失超过40%；30年后，实际价值变成了21.46万元，近80万元白白蒸发。那么，而今8％的CPI涨幅下，面临的一个现实问题是，如何去应对通货膨胀？面对这个风险，难道普通投资者只有任人宰割吗？
从一个相对较长的历史周期看，战胜通货膨胀的较好的金融工具主要是股票，而不是债券、存款、现金和房地产。还记得20世纪80年代的“万元户”，那时1万元简直就是巨额财富的代名词。如果当时把1万元存入银行，现在账面价值也仅约为5万元。汇丰晋信基金管理公司的十大投资金律中的一条便是，“只有投资才能抵御通货膨胀对财富的侵蚀”。
什么样的股票能超过通货膨胀呢？ 我们看看投资大师巴菲特在通货膨胀背景下如何投资的。70年代初期到中期，美国经济衰退，经济霸主地位开始动摇。到70年代代末，美国经济发展缓慢，出现停滞现象通货膨胀。巴菲特是1972年买下喜斯糖果的。
作为长期价值投资的实践者，巴菲特最为重视的是如何应对通货膨胀。巴菲特表示，他跟芒格总是怀疑通货膨胀有能力重拾过往的气势，他们总觉得通货膨胀在蜇伏当中，而不是全然消失。巴菲特收购企业的时候，考虑的是长期稳定,能创造稳定的现金流，同时经营成本相对较低的传统行业。巴菲特表示，当伯克夏评估要收购哪家企业的时候，通货膨胀总是一项考虑因素，虽然不是唯一的一项因素。通货膨胀对各个企业的影响并不相同。最好的企业有能力维持实质美元的盈余创造力，而且无需为了创造名目成长率而必须进行相对金额的投资。最糟糕的企业是，你必须投入越来越多“投资”才能维持一家“烂公司”。
喜斯糖果在美国通货膨胀时期表现得很出色，因为它不需要现时美元的庞大资本支出。在这样的背景下，喜斯糖果这样一个稳定的产生现金流的企业，恰恰是抵消通货膨胀的最好选择。到这里，我们明白了巴菲特对喜斯糖果这么一个看上去很普通的企业情有独衷，就是因为这家企业可以创造稳定的现金流，而且这个现金流的回报率远远大于通货膨胀的比例，给公司带来的是真正的盈余。今天的中国，这样的企业并不少，值得我们去挖掘。
教你，巴菲特價值投資法
巴菲特在他旗下的投資公司波克夏海瑟威公司2006年報當中，揭露他買進全球第三大鋼鐵廠南韓浦項(POSCO)高達4%股權，而且投資獲利已經高達1倍以上。這個消息一出，不但提高市場對於亞洲鋼鐵產業價格低廉、具併購商機的想像，更讓人欽佩遠在美國中部、現年70多歲的巴菲特，能夠在一年多之前就精確掌握亞洲鋼鐵產業的投資題材。
根據波克夏的年報，巴菲特買進浦項鋼鐵始於一年多以前，當時鋼鐵產業因為產能過剩、殺價競爭，所以獲利表現落於谷底。不過巴菲特認為亞洲鋼鐵產業價格低估、產能可望整併，價格也將因為新興市場的工業化需求而獲提振，所以，克服市場的負面情緒，仍然勇敢買進韓國浦項鋼鐵，最終獲得讓人滿意的報酬空間，而此正是「價值投資法」的深刻體現。
全球股災的影響下，不少個股中箭落馬，此時，檢討本身的投資策略頗為重要，巴菲特的投資哲學中，「價值投資法」確實引人深思。所謂價值投資法就是在瘋狂的金融市場當中，尋找經營體質穩健、中長期獲利可期，但是短線價格低估、遭到市場錯殺的投資標的，並且耐心等待、長期持有，以獲得豐厚可觀的大波段報酬空間。類似這種著眼於3-5年的價值投資方式，短線報酬未必搶眼，但長期下來，卻能提供投資人相對穩健的獲利空間。
價值投資策略在股市飆漲時或許績效不那麼突出，但當股市回檔時，其抗跌及防禦的特性馬上就能被彰顯出來。富蘭克林證券投顧表示，在股市重挫、市場氣氛趨於悲觀時勇於進場投資，也算是落實價值型投資策略。尤其在目前全球基本面仍然紮實的情況下，股市回檔反而是逢低進場佈局的好時機。
建議投資人不妨以全球股市為投資主軸，搭配經濟溫和擴張，價格仍然便宜，且受惠資金動能充沛、購併機會層出不窮的歐美股市。較為積極的投資人則可在這波額洗清後，逢低佈局拉丁美洲或東歐股市，讓投資績效能更具爆發力。當然，債券是各類型投資人在投資組合中不可或缺的要角，畢竟在股市震盪時，債券可以發揮避險功能，穩定投資組合的波動性。
巴菲特金律 追求簡單
巴菲特在過去40年裏，從100美元開始，通過投資成富豪，被喻為「當代最偉大的投資者」。
其實，巴菲特的投資哲學並不困難，總歸只有一點：看好的公司要長期持有。但我們要學習的事，巴菲特能夠迅速而準確地決定一家公司或一個複雜問題的關鍵所在，他可以在兩分鐘之內決定放棄投資，也能在幾天後大舉買進。
因為巴菲特一生的投資哲學第一信條就是追求簡單，避免複雜。因此挑中的公司都是與日常生活息息相關的公司，只要人類社會繼續存在，這些體質好的生活型股票，永遠都可賺取現金，累積保留盈餘和股東權益。到目前為止，巴菲特的核心持股分別是吉利 (刮鬍刀)、可口可樂、美國運通、H&R 金融公司、穆迪信用評等公司、富國銀行(Wells Fargo )及華盛頓郵報，這些公司一旦列入巴菲特的投資組合就很少更動。
例如，1972年道瓊指數跌到900點左右，黃金每盎斯跌破100 美元大關，美國聯準會將利率提高到6%，在華爾街人心惶惶的時候，巴菲特開始買進華盛頓郵報，1973年大力加碼，成為華盛頓郵報大股東，如今已歷時30年。巴菲特將華盛頓郵報列為永久持股，同時還特別強調：「不管市場如何高估他們的價值，我都不會賣出。」這就是巴菲特簡單的投資哲學，「看好的股票絕不輕易賣出」。
股神難免有錯誤判斷的時候，例如80年代中期，巴菲特將他的投資組合鎖定在幾檔可能會因為通貨膨脹而獲利的公司，巴菲特預料全球將發生大通膨，不過通貨膨脹始終沒有發生，。不過，巴菲特懂得從錯誤中學習。巴菲特在資金配置的投資三原則中特別強調：一要接受錯誤的發生；二要坦承錯誤，並勇於面對；三從錯誤中學習，積極過日子。
研究巴菲特投資策略的學者將其投資經驗列成6個基本原則，包括積極尋找明星企業、長期現金流量、市場原則、安全原則、組合原則及長期持有原則。
根據波克夏的年報，巴菲特買進浦項鋼鐵始於一年多以前，當時鋼鐵產業因為產能過剩、殺價競爭，所以獲利表現落於谷底。不過巴菲特認為亞洲鋼鐵產業價格低估、產能可望整併，價格也將因為新興市場的工業化需求而獲提振，所以，克服市場的負面情緒，仍然勇敢買進韓國浦項鋼鐵，最終獲得讓人滿意的報酬空間，而此正是「價值投資法」的深刻體現。
全球股災的影響下，不少個股中箭落馬，此時，檢討本身的投資策略頗為重要，巴菲特的投資哲學中，「價值投資法」確實引人深思。所謂價值投資法就是在瘋狂的金融市場當中，尋找經營體質穩健、中長期獲利可期，但是短線價格低估、遭到市場錯殺的投資標的，並且耐心等待、長期持有，以獲得豐厚可觀的大波段報酬空間。類似這種著眼於3-5年的價值投資方式，短線報酬未必搶眼，但長期下來，卻能提供投資人相對穩健的獲利空間。
價值投資策略在股市飆漲時或許績效不那麼突出，但當股市回檔時，其抗跌及防禦的特性馬上就能被彰顯出來。富蘭克林證券投顧表示，在股市重挫、市場氣氛趨於悲觀時勇於進場投資，也算是落實價值型投資策略。尤其在目前全球基本面仍然紮實的情況下，股市回檔反而是逢低進場佈局的好時機。
建議投資人不妨以全球股市為投資主軸，搭配經濟溫和擴張，價格仍然便宜，且受惠資金動能充沛、購併機會層出不窮的歐美股市。較為積極的投資人則可在這波額洗清後，逢低佈局拉丁美洲或東歐股市，讓投資績效能更具爆發力。當然，債券是各類型投資人在投資組合中不可或缺的要角，畢竟在股市震盪時，債券可以發揮避險功能，穩定投資組合的波動性。
巴菲特金律 追求簡單
巴菲特在過去40年裏，從100美元開始，通過投資成富豪，被喻為「當代最偉大的投資者」。
其實，巴菲特的投資哲學並不困難，總歸只有一點：看好的公司要長期持有。但我們要學習的事，巴菲特能夠迅速而準確地決定一家公司或一個複雜問題的關鍵所在，他可以在兩分鐘之內決定放棄投資，也能在幾天後大舉買進。
因為巴菲特一生的投資哲學第一信條就是追求簡單，避免複雜。因此挑中的公司都是與日常生活息息相關的公司，只要人類社會繼續存在，這些體質好的生活型股票，永遠都可賺取現金，累積保留盈餘和股東權益。到目前為止，巴菲特的核心持股分別是吉利 (刮鬍刀)、可口可樂、美國運通、H&R 金融公司、穆迪信用評等公司、富國銀行(Wells Fargo )及華盛頓郵報，這些公司一旦列入巴菲特的投資組合就很少更動。
例如，1972年道瓊指數跌到900點左右，黃金每盎斯跌破100 美元大關，美國聯準會將利率提高到6%，在華爾街人心惶惶的時候，巴菲特開始買進華盛頓郵報，1973年大力加碼，成為華盛頓郵報大股東，如今已歷時30年。巴菲特將華盛頓郵報列為永久持股，同時還特別強調：「不管市場如何高估他們的價值，我都不會賣出。」這就是巴菲特簡單的投資哲學，「看好的股票絕不輕易賣出」。
股神難免有錯誤判斷的時候，例如80年代中期，巴菲特將他的投資組合鎖定在幾檔可能會因為通貨膨脹而獲利的公司，巴菲特預料全球將發生大通膨，不過通貨膨脹始終沒有發生，。不過，巴菲特懂得從錯誤中學習。巴菲特在資金配置的投資三原則中特別強調：一要接受錯誤的發生；二要坦承錯誤，並勇於面對；三從錯誤中學習，積極過日子。
研究巴菲特投資策略的學者將其投資經驗列成6個基本原則，包括積極尋找明星企業、長期現金流量、市場原則、安全原則、組合原則及長期持有原則。
通胀对策之“兵临城下”
众所周知, 当今世界的各种金融创新都兴起于20世70年代布雷顿体系这一“准金本位”被废除之后. 原因就是在这一体制之下, 金融业的核心资产是黄金, 所有流通中的货币必须经受“纸币兑换黄金”这一经济铁律的严酷考验。 银行系统不能也不敢放手生产“别人的债务”来创造债务货币, 以免遭到人民的挤兑.。债务在黄金的严密监管之下保持着谦卑的规模, 银行家们也就只能耐着性子吃贷款利息。在金本位的制约之下, 世界主要国家的通货膨胀几乎可以忽略不计, 长期财政赤字和贸易赤字绝无藏身之处, 外汇风险几近于零。格林斯潘1966年曾说, “在没有金本位的情况下, 将没有任何办法来保护人民的储蓄不被通货膨胀所吞噬。”凯恩斯说： “通过连续的通货膨胀, 政府可以秘密地, 不为人知地剥夺人民的财富. 在使多数人贫穷的过程中, 却使少数人暴富。” 通货膨胀将产生两大重要后果, 一是货币购买力下降, 二是财富重新分配。 在现代银行制度下, 房地产业和“股权”投资占了不小的便宜，靠养老金生活和老老实实储蓄的人就是最大的输家。目前，根据我们的判断，虽然人民币对美元是升值的，但对内却是贬值的。
2005年7月21日中国开始实行了人民币对美元的管理浮动汇率制，也就开始了人民币升值的步伐，从1：8.27升值到当前的1：7.5683，升幅超过8.5%。据国际货币基金组织的调查显示，以购买力平价衡量，2006年1美元约合1.91人民币。因此，人民币升值将是一个漫长的、不可逆转的趋势。为考察货币升值，我们除把目光转向日本外，也研究了德国马克的升值过程。我们认为，经济走弱也不是货币升值的必然结果。德国央行始终把抑制通胀作为最重要的目标，或唯一的目标。使德国经济在30年间，在货币升值的同时保持了经济稳定，走出了马克升值带来的出口困境，德国人在此期间的思想变迁，对我们有非常好的启示。
我们始于2004年开始关注房地产行业，一直持有万科的股权到2007年7月。天道酬勤，通过不断的学习与努力，有了一点点收获。2007年7月，考虑到人民币升值、国内温和通胀和针对房地产行业的调控，我们将关注的重点由房地产行业转为金融业，开始投资招商银行，准备长期持有其股权。
从历史经验看，在本币升值的背景下，金融股的表现都远远领先于大盘。以日本为例，日本在1984-1987 年中期，日元第三次大幅度升值时期，日本银行股实现了高达7 倍的涨幅。韩国的经验也证实了这一点。基于日韩经验以及我国金融行业所处的行业背景和发展前景，我们持续看好金融业。我们现在面临的是一场没有硝烟的金融战争。制度性溢价是报答性的，而且只有一次，其中最大的受益者就是银行。我们翻开香港股市中汇丰的走势图，20年前其股价只有5元多，现在是100多元，而且，这还忽略了资本的扩张和分红、上世纪80年代的股灾以及1997年的金融风暴。目前，中国资本市场的制度性溢价还没有完全暴露出来。银行的所有网点都处在黄金地段，如果按工程价值来估值，按黄金地段的价格来估值，那么银行的每股净值产将翻番。显然，国内的银行股目前是被价值低估的，可以预计，未来10年或者20年后，如当年的汇丰一样，招行股价达到200元以上是没有问题的。现在股市的制度性溢价还在初始阶段，要等2007年的年报出来了才能充分显现出来。
银行业务包括商业银行业务与投资银行业务，都是高效益的行业，其主要成本为管理成本。假以3%的利差计算，仅贷款这一项，每年自动为国内银行增加近8500—9500亿元的利润，正常情况下银行业是有稳定收益的行业。国内银行的资产扩张倍数约在20—40区间，总资产利润率只有0.1—0.9%（平均在0.5%左右），资产利用率约为2－4%，国内银行自身素质与经营管理效率提高潜力还很大。我们所关注的招商银行，目前是国家第五大银行，但银行的网点较前4强要少得多，下一步随招商银行网点的逐步增多，外延和内涵式的发展会给招商银行带来跳跃式的发展。
近期，我们重点研习了银行拨备覆盖率，原因是该指标从宁波银行的405.3%到深发展的48%，上市银行的拨备覆盖率相差甚巨。我们认为，拨备覆盖率这一衡量银行资产质量的重要指标，不仅影响银行的利润，而且直接影响着最终对上市银行的估值判断。根据《股份制商业银行风险评级体系(暂行)》规定，拨备覆盖率被定义为贷款损失准备与不良贷款的比率，其计算公式：拨备覆盖率=（贷款损失准备金计提余额/不良贷款余额）×100%。拨备覆盖率更多地考虑的是银行对信贷资产预期损失风险补偿能力。在通常情况下，商业银行根据信贷资产的历史经验数据、行业内标准，结合中国人民银行《银行贷款损失准备计提指引》的规定，即正常、关注、次级、可疑以及损失类贷款的计提比例分别为1%、2%、25%、50%和100%提取拨备准备。在五级分类中，不良贷款率越低，拨备覆盖率就越高。目前，A股市场共有12家上市银行，2006年拨备覆盖率平均水平为125.57%。其中，拨备覆盖率最高的宁波银行为405.3%；最低者是深发展，为48%，两者相差悬殊，招商银行等银行的拨备覆盖率在140%左右。由于计提的不良贷款拨备会直接记入损益表冲减当期利润，因此拨备对银行业绩有直接影响。当不良贷款率上升时，计提的拨备也会随之上升，银行利润就会下降，相反，不良贷款率下降则会减轻银行计提拨备的压力，对利润就会有积极贡献。
通过长时间的跟踪和研究，我们开始试着为招商银行进行估值，而估值的能力对于投资者是非常重要的。2007年，巴菲特在有2万7千人参加的伯克希尔股东大会上，就如何成为一个好的投资者回答道：“读所有你可以找到的书。以我为例，在我10岁的时候，我就已经将奥玛哈公立图书馆中所有关于投资方面的书阅读过。你必须以竞争的想法来武装你的头脑，然后再逐步辨别出来哪些时候该用哪些方法。你一旦掌握知识后，就可以开始实践了，而且越早开始阅读越有利。当你买一个农场时，你会说我买这个农场是因为我相信根据自己的计算，它有每公倾120蒲式耳的产量。这个决定不是根据你在电视上看到的新闻或听邻居谈论的。任何投资一定要通过你自己的分析和判断。”有鉴于此，我们试着对招商银行的盈利进行预测，2007年至2009年分别为0.85元、1.20元和1.70元，按40倍PEG(动态市盈率）进行推算，2007年至2009年的年末估值为36元、48元和68元。根据推算，持有招商银行的复合盈利率在未来两年都超过30%，而30%就是我们年度投资的收益目标。
2008年1月1日新劳动合同法的施行及人民币的持续升值，给“伟大”公司的成长带来了契机，“依法经营”应该是大公司所秉持价值观的底线。劳动者维权意识的增强，将使公司在用工时“违法成本”大大增加，会促使企业走高薪酬、高效率、低用工数及低流失率的发展之路。可以预见，人工成本的突飞猛进将使小公司不堪重负，大公司的优势日渐显现。劳动密集型企业的发展将举步为艰。“一将功成万骨枯”，越来越多的“资源”将支撑优势公司的发展。历史一次次在告诉我们，经济周期的波动、国家宏观调控、行业调控等促成了“伟大公司”的成长。中国经济发展到目前这个阶段，若错失“伟大公司”成长所赋予给我们的历史机遇，那将是人生一大憾事。万科、招行等公司正在“伟大成长”，是否应该把握住机会？
2005年7月21日中国开始实行了人民币对美元的管理浮动汇率制，也就开始了人民币升值的步伐，从1：8.27升值到当前的1：7.5683，升幅超过8.5%。据国际货币基金组织的调查显示，以购买力平价衡量，2006年1美元约合1.91人民币。因此，人民币升值将是一个漫长的、不可逆转的趋势。为考察货币升值，我们除把目光转向日本外，也研究了德国马克的升值过程。我们认为，经济走弱也不是货币升值的必然结果。德国央行始终把抑制通胀作为最重要的目标，或唯一的目标。使德国经济在30年间，在货币升值的同时保持了经济稳定，走出了马克升值带来的出口困境，德国人在此期间的思想变迁，对我们有非常好的启示。
我们始于2004年开始关注房地产行业，一直持有万科的股权到2007年7月。天道酬勤，通过不断的学习与努力，有了一点点收获。2007年7月，考虑到人民币升值、国内温和通胀和针对房地产行业的调控，我们将关注的重点由房地产行业转为金融业，开始投资招商银行，准备长期持有其股权。
从历史经验看，在本币升值的背景下，金融股的表现都远远领先于大盘。以日本为例，日本在1984-1987 年中期，日元第三次大幅度升值时期，日本银行股实现了高达7 倍的涨幅。韩国的经验也证实了这一点。基于日韩经验以及我国金融行业所处的行业背景和发展前景，我们持续看好金融业。我们现在面临的是一场没有硝烟的金融战争。制度性溢价是报答性的，而且只有一次，其中最大的受益者就是银行。我们翻开香港股市中汇丰的走势图，20年前其股价只有5元多，现在是100多元，而且，这还忽略了资本的扩张和分红、上世纪80年代的股灾以及1997年的金融风暴。目前，中国资本市场的制度性溢价还没有完全暴露出来。银行的所有网点都处在黄金地段，如果按工程价值来估值，按黄金地段的价格来估值，那么银行的每股净值产将翻番。显然，国内的银行股目前是被价值低估的，可以预计，未来10年或者20年后，如当年的汇丰一样，招行股价达到200元以上是没有问题的。现在股市的制度性溢价还在初始阶段，要等2007年的年报出来了才能充分显现出来。
银行业务包括商业银行业务与投资银行业务，都是高效益的行业，其主要成本为管理成本。假以3%的利差计算，仅贷款这一项，每年自动为国内银行增加近8500—9500亿元的利润，正常情况下银行业是有稳定收益的行业。国内银行的资产扩张倍数约在20—40区间，总资产利润率只有0.1—0.9%（平均在0.5%左右），资产利用率约为2－4%，国内银行自身素质与经营管理效率提高潜力还很大。我们所关注的招商银行，目前是国家第五大银行，但银行的网点较前4强要少得多，下一步随招商银行网点的逐步增多，外延和内涵式的发展会给招商银行带来跳跃式的发展。
近期，我们重点研习了银行拨备覆盖率，原因是该指标从宁波银行的405.3%到深发展的48%，上市银行的拨备覆盖率相差甚巨。我们认为，拨备覆盖率这一衡量银行资产质量的重要指标，不仅影响银行的利润，而且直接影响着最终对上市银行的估值判断。根据《股份制商业银行风险评级体系(暂行)》规定，拨备覆盖率被定义为贷款损失准备与不良贷款的比率，其计算公式：拨备覆盖率=（贷款损失准备金计提余额/不良贷款余额）×100%。拨备覆盖率更多地考虑的是银行对信贷资产预期损失风险补偿能力。在通常情况下，商业银行根据信贷资产的历史经验数据、行业内标准，结合中国人民银行《银行贷款损失准备计提指引》的规定，即正常、关注、次级、可疑以及损失类贷款的计提比例分别为1%、2%、25%、50%和100%提取拨备准备。在五级分类中，不良贷款率越低，拨备覆盖率就越高。目前，A股市场共有12家上市银行，2006年拨备覆盖率平均水平为125.57%。其中，拨备覆盖率最高的宁波银行为405.3%；最低者是深发展，为48%，两者相差悬殊，招商银行等银行的拨备覆盖率在140%左右。由于计提的不良贷款拨备会直接记入损益表冲减当期利润，因此拨备对银行业绩有直接影响。当不良贷款率上升时，计提的拨备也会随之上升，银行利润就会下降，相反，不良贷款率下降则会减轻银行计提拨备的压力，对利润就会有积极贡献。
通过长时间的跟踪和研究，我们开始试着为招商银行进行估值，而估值的能力对于投资者是非常重要的。2007年，巴菲特在有2万7千人参加的伯克希尔股东大会上，就如何成为一个好的投资者回答道：“读所有你可以找到的书。以我为例，在我10岁的时候，我就已经将奥玛哈公立图书馆中所有关于投资方面的书阅读过。你必须以竞争的想法来武装你的头脑，然后再逐步辨别出来哪些时候该用哪些方法。你一旦掌握知识后，就可以开始实践了，而且越早开始阅读越有利。当你买一个农场时，你会说我买这个农场是因为我相信根据自己的计算，它有每公倾120蒲式耳的产量。这个决定不是根据你在电视上看到的新闻或听邻居谈论的。任何投资一定要通过你自己的分析和判断。”有鉴于此，我们试着对招商银行的盈利进行预测，2007年至2009年分别为0.85元、1.20元和1.70元，按40倍PEG(动态市盈率）进行推算，2007年至2009年的年末估值为36元、48元和68元。根据推算，持有招商银行的复合盈利率在未来两年都超过30%，而30%就是我们年度投资的收益目标。
2008年1月1日新劳动合同法的施行及人民币的持续升值，给“伟大”公司的成长带来了契机，“依法经营”应该是大公司所秉持价值观的底线。劳动者维权意识的增强，将使公司在用工时“违法成本”大大增加，会促使企业走高薪酬、高效率、低用工数及低流失率的发展之路。可以预见，人工成本的突飞猛进将使小公司不堪重负，大公司的优势日渐显现。劳动密集型企业的发展将举步为艰。“一将功成万骨枯”，越来越多的“资源”将支撑优势公司的发展。历史一次次在告诉我们，经济周期的波动、国家宏观调控、行业调控等促成了“伟大公司”的成长。中国经济发展到目前这个阶段，若错失“伟大公司”成长所赋予给我们的历史机遇，那将是人生一大憾事。万科、招行等公司正在“伟大成长”，是否应该把握住机会？
Warren Buffett is Moving 100% into U.S. Stocks. Should you?
Warren Buffett made news the other day in a New York Times opinion piece where he stated that he is moving 100% of his assets from U.S. government bonds into U.S. equities (stocks). When the richest guy in the world, a man who made his fortune through wise value investing, says that it’s time to buy, people tend to listen. Let’s take a look at what Buffett says.
Warren Buffet’s Reasons for Moving 100% of his Assets into U.S. Stocks:
1. Buffett invests by the motto “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. If you believe in Buffett’s motto, then now is a great time to buy. We haven’t seen this much fear and volatility in the market since the Great Depression. Could people get more fearful than this?
2. Buffett believes that a rebound will happen prior to economic conditions improving. He believes this because during the Great Depression, the Dow hit it’s low in July of 1932 even though economic conditions worsened until FDR took office in March of 1933. Despite the economic decline, the Dow advanced 30%. Those who waited for the economic recovery missed out on the gains.
3. We’ve been through so many tumultuous periods of time and equity value has increased. Buffett calmly states that the 20th Century provided “two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”
4. Cash is a terrible long-term asset that is certain to depreciate in value. On this point, Buffett is correct. If you stay in cash, you’re bound to get dominated by inflation over time. Buffett then goes on to state that “the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.” I couldn’t agree more with this statement.
My Thoughts on Buffett’s Statements:
I agree with just about everything Buffett stated. He was very careful not to say that he doesn’t know where the market will be tomorrow, in a month, or even in a year, but does think that in 5, 10, or 20 years, stocks will go up.
I do think he could have further clarified what type of stocks to look for in this type of a market versus giving a blanket statement that he’s getting 100% into them. Many companies will not survive this credit crisis because they don’t have enough cash on hand and won’t be able to meet stricter lending standards.
I am also a little surprised that Buffett was 100% into U.S. Government bonds prior to making this statement. This implies that he is a market ‘timer’. Was his decision to do so smart? In hindsight, absolutely. If only I had listened to my senses when the Dow was overvalued at 14,000 a year ago, I wouldn’t mind dumping more money into the market right now either (I probably will anyways).
What if Buffett is Wrong?
There is always a possibility that the economy won’t recover and is headed lower 5, 10, and 20 years from where it is now. If this is the case, my guess is that we’ll have catastrophic conditions worldwide and 401K statements will be the least of our concerns.
One thing seems almost certain - we’re going to encounter higher inflation levels than we’ve enjoyed over the last 15-20 years. Cash is not the way to go. Gold, silver, tangibles, TIPS, and undervalued market leading equities seem like a solid bet.
If you are going to go the stock route, which would not be a bad choice, you must choose the right type of stocks. More to come on this shortly.
Warren Buffet’s Reasons for Moving 100% of his Assets into U.S. Stocks:
1. Buffett invests by the motto “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. If you believe in Buffett’s motto, then now is a great time to buy. We haven’t seen this much fear and volatility in the market since the Great Depression. Could people get more fearful than this?
2. Buffett believes that a rebound will happen prior to economic conditions improving. He believes this because during the Great Depression, the Dow hit it’s low in July of 1932 even though economic conditions worsened until FDR took office in March of 1933. Despite the economic decline, the Dow advanced 30%. Those who waited for the economic recovery missed out on the gains.
3. We’ve been through so many tumultuous periods of time and equity value has increased. Buffett calmly states that the 20th Century provided “two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”
4. Cash is a terrible long-term asset that is certain to depreciate in value. On this point, Buffett is correct. If you stay in cash, you’re bound to get dominated by inflation over time. Buffett then goes on to state that “the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.” I couldn’t agree more with this statement.
My Thoughts on Buffett’s Statements:
I agree with just about everything Buffett stated. He was very careful not to say that he doesn’t know where the market will be tomorrow, in a month, or even in a year, but does think that in 5, 10, or 20 years, stocks will go up.
I do think he could have further clarified what type of stocks to look for in this type of a market versus giving a blanket statement that he’s getting 100% into them. Many companies will not survive this credit crisis because they don’t have enough cash on hand and won’t be able to meet stricter lending standards.
I am also a little surprised that Buffett was 100% into U.S. Government bonds prior to making this statement. This implies that he is a market ‘timer’. Was his decision to do so smart? In hindsight, absolutely. If only I had listened to my senses when the Dow was overvalued at 14,000 a year ago, I wouldn’t mind dumping more money into the market right now either (I probably will anyways).
What if Buffett is Wrong?
There is always a possibility that the economy won’t recover and is headed lower 5, 10, and 20 years from where it is now. If this is the case, my guess is that we’ll have catastrophic conditions worldwide and 401K statements will be the least of our concerns.
One thing seems almost certain - we’re going to encounter higher inflation levels than we’ve enjoyed over the last 15-20 years. Cash is not the way to go. Gold, silver, tangibles, TIPS, and undervalued market leading equities seem like a solid bet.
If you are going to go the stock route, which would not be a bad choice, you must choose the right type of stocks. More to come on this shortly.
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