Time

Monday, June 9, 2008

投资要趁早

股票投资,越早开始越好。

开始得越早,成功的机会越大。

我这里所指的“成功”,有一个定义,就是达到“财务自主”。

“财务自主”是指在我们退休后,有足够的金钱让我们无愁无忧地安度晚年,不必再为五斗米而折腰。

要做到这一点,必须确保在退休后收入不会中断。

理想的数目是在退休后,每个月仍能保持你最后一个月薪金的收入。

终身领薪梦想成真
如果能做到每年收入跟着通货膨胀率而增加,以保持生活素质,那就更妙。
要做到这一点,不能单靠薪金的收入。
一定要学习投资,才能使终身“领薪”,梦想成真。

投资要成功,经验扮演决定性的角色。

经验必须来自实际投资。

每一个行业,都有其诀窍。要摸清楚这诀窍,需从实际的工作中去体验,才能融汇贯通,达到得心应手的地步。

只能意会不能言传
每个行业都有陷阱,必须深入其中才能学习避开陷阱的本领。就好像埋满地雷的战场,必须亲临战地,才有可能探测到地雷所在地,若置身战地之外,是不可能找到地雷的。
避开投资陷阱,需靠经验的启发,有时只能意会,不能言传。
累积经验需要时间。没有经过这个过程,你很难在投资这个领域中生存。

残酷环境生存经验
一头从小养在笼中的狮子,食物不劳而获,长大后放归山林,难以生存。因为它缺乏捕捉别的动物的技术训练和经验。
我最近到墨尔本的乡下,跟一对朋友夫妇住了一个星期,他们退休后在一个风景幽美的山谷,筑室而居,过着隐士般的退休生活。
闲来无事,养了一群鹦鹉,其中大部分是以蛋孵出,从小在笼中长大。
他们告诉我,这类鹦鹉放归山林,根本无法生存。因为他们没有在残酷的大自然环境中生存的条件。

中彩票的人,很少发达。因为财富是从天而降,并非长期累积而成。

中奖人没有投资经验,缺乏判断投资计划可行性的能力,骤然得到大笔资金,在一连串不当的投资中消融了,最后打回原形,仍旧两袖清风。

我们常常听到“富不过三代”这句话,其实有一定的道理。

第一代亲力亲为。通过艰苦奋斗致富,洞悉经营窍门,财富得来不易,懂得珍惜,才能持盈保泰。

第二代目睹第一代创业艰辛,在第一代的提携栽培、竞竞业业、如履薄冰、故能“守业”。创业难,守业亦不易。

第三代在富裕中成长,不知创业艰辛,故不知珍惜;心智未经磨炼,不思进取,反而把精神化在争夺财产上内斗,导致家族分裂,故事业多毁在第三代手中。

吸取教训提升技术
股票市场千变万化,股票投资风险高,挑战大,非有丰富经验,难以成功。
而累积经验,需要时间和实战体验;年轻时就投入,使你有足够的时间,去接受磨炼,身经百战而来的经验,是你的无价之宝,没有任何东西可以取代。

在投资的过程中,每一个人都可能犯错,年轻就开始投资,使你有足够的时间去吸取教训,提升你的投资技术。

跟着年龄的增长,心智的成熟和经验的丰富,使你由“错多对少”,逐渐提升至“对多错少”,使你稳步走上成功的投资之路。

最理想的投资年龄是从走出校门,找到第一份职业时开始。

除了经验以外,股票投资需要对上市公司有深入的认识。

深入的认识,来自长期做功课。根本没有捷径可行。

故投资要趁早,越早越好。

现在就开始

Sunday, June 8, 2008

巴菲特時代再度來臨?

債券市場失靈、股票市場出現動盪﹐私人資本運營基金袖手觀望﹐對沖基金經理和貸款人都在大甩賣。

這些天來﹐沃倫•巴菲特卻是非常愜意。

他說﹐如果時機合適﹐我花錢的速度會比伊梅爾達•馬科斯還快。伊梅爾達是前菲律賓第一夫人﹐也是全球聞名的購物狂。

在過去3年里﹐巴菲特逢低買進的傳統投資策略似乎並不得志﹐大量舉債的私人資本運營基金和對沖基金推高資產價格的幅度超過了他的價值投資模式。

結果是﹐目前他手中掌握著近500億美元的現金。

現在﹐隨著次級抵押貸款市場危機終結了輕鬆賺錢的時代﹐並導致大量資產被低價出售(如Thornburg Mortgage Inc.週一拋售了205億美元的優質住房抵押貸款擔保證券)﹐許多人認為巴菲特將是屹立不倒的最後的買家之一。76歲的巴菲特是控股公司伯克希爾•哈撒威公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的董事長。

廣告那麼伯克希爾•哈撒威公司正在購買什麼?或將要購買什麼呢?巴菲特恪守著伯克希爾•哈撒威公司不討論潛在交易的政策。但顯然可以想到﹐各領域不同規模的賣家都在同他進行接觸﹐從受到抵押貸款市場和商業票據市場打擊的貸款人到私人資本運營交易的發起者。

一些投資者猜測﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司可能會購買抵押貸款機構Countrywide Financial Corp.的部分股份﹐該公司股價因次級抵押貸款風波而大幅下挫。這些投資者說﹐Countrywide的資產包括債務服務業務以及優質住房抵押貸款和住房抵押貸款擔保證券﹐這些可能對巴菲特具有吸引力。

這並不是金融機構第一次要求巴菲特施以援手。1991年﹐他接管Salomon Brothers並出任該公司的首席執行長﹐當時正處於對涉及到美國國債市場的醜聞進行司法調查之際。現在還有許多人讚揚巴菲特在證券監管部門和投資者面前維護了Salomon的良好形象。

7年後﹐他差點出手援助由幾位Salomon舊時同事創辦的對沖基金Long-Term Capital Management﹐但後來改變了主意﹐原因之一在於他想得到的是這家公司的資產﹐如股票、債券和其它證券﹐而不是公司本身和它複雜的合伙人架構。

與LTCM不同的是﹐Countrywide有一些直接貸款業務﹐並且公司有良好的品牌形象和優質住房抵押貸款資產﹐能夠補充伯克希爾•哈撒威公司的其它證券投資。比如﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司是富國銀行(Wells Fargo & Co.)和M&T Bank的長期股東﹐這兩家銀行也被譽為具有良好品牌知名度和長期運作歷史的保守型貸款人。

事實上﹐巴菲特已經開始加大了涉足住房抵押貸款擔保證券市場的力度。伯克希爾•哈撒威公司在第二季度公佈﹐旗下保險部門對AA及以上評級的住房抵押貸款擔保證券的投資比第一季度增加了一倍﹐達到了37億美元。

對於其他投資﹐巴菲特沒有詳細闡明。

投資者相信巴菲特可能會投身其中﹐並抓住一些良機。儘管道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數上週走低﹐但伯克希爾•哈撒威公司通常波動很小的股價卻出現了上漲。週一﹐Berkshire的A類股上漲了2,200美元﹐收於120,700美元﹐漲幅為1.9%。該股自8月10日以來已經上漲了8.2%﹐今年以來共上漲了9.7%。

投資基金Gardner Russo & Gardner的合伙人托馬斯•魯索(Thomas Russo)說﹐現在是伯克希爾•哈撒威公司的市場。魯索管理著約30億美元的資產。加德納(Gardner)也是伯克希爾•哈撒威公司的長期投資者﹐他說﹐巴菲特會從眾多廉價資產中做出最佳投資選擇。

陷入危險境地的私人資本運營交易可能也會吸引伯克希爾•哈撒威公司。這些交易主要依靠債券市場進行融資。德州公用事業公司TXU Corp.將會補充伯克希爾•哈撒威公司旗下的公司組合﹐這當中已經包括公用事業巨頭MidAmerican Energy Holdings。目前﹐TXU正在努力勸說其股東同意將公司出售給Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.和TPG。

如果上述交易失敗﹐巴菲特要做的就是想法兒弄個好價錢﹐但鑒於TXU近期運營業績得到改善﹐這似乎並非易事。另外﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司不參加拍賣﹐因此所有交易將不得不與巴菲特私下協商達成。

TXU的發言人不予置評。Countrywide的發言人在電子郵件中表示﹐該公司的政策不允許對有關併購的傳言發表評論。

伯克希爾•哈撒威公司還可能利用已持股公司股價低迷的時機進一步增持股份。比如﹐在過去一年里﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司以最高46美元的價格購買了板材生產商USG Corp.的股票﹐目前已累計持有略高於17%的股份。週一﹐該股收於37.96美元。

截至6月30日﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司共擁有近470億美元的現金和現金等價物﹐除此之外﹐該公司還持有約740億美元的股票和270億美元的債券﹐巴菲特說﹐如果能夠獲得更好的回報﹐他會毫不猶豫地重新進行投資。

由於伯克希爾•哈撒威公司具有AAA級信用評級﹐因此公司也能獲得低成本的借款。今年以來﹐該公司約有32%的收入來自於Geico和General Re等保險子公司。

巴菲特也不會回避良好的短期交易機會。在2002年的安然公司(Enron Corp.)和WorldCom醜聞後﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司購買了25家能源公司和部分電信公司的高收益債券﹐由於各種醜聞﹐這些債券當時的定價都很低。到當年年底﹐Berkshire持有的垃圾債券數量增加了五倍﹐達到83億美元。

在2003年底﹐Berkshire公佈來自這些投資的已實現收益約為11億美元﹐收益率為13.3%。目前﹐伯克希爾•哈撒威公司仍持有29億美元的垃圾債券。巴菲特說﹐如果有人能給他帶來他感興趣的交易﹐他會賣出這些垃圾債券。

有求於他的人看來並不少。巴菲特說﹐這些天來﹐我絕對比幾個月前要受歡迎。但隨後他又自我解嘲說﹐我的起點也低。

數學不好 財務吃虧

或許﹐我們的問題只是數學水平太差了。

官方儲蓄率依然頑固地保持在幾近於零的水平﹐截止9月份的12個月中﹐抵押貸款和消費貸款增長了7.4%﹐而Pew Research Center最近發佈報道稱﹐半數美國人對自己的個人財務狀況的評價是“一般”或“糟糕”。

人們很容易將這一切歸咎於理財不善。但想想是不是還有另一個原因﹕我們的數學能力低下。讓我們來看一看是哪裡出了問題﹐又該如何做得更好。

──損失利息。在最近的一項研究中﹐市場營銷教授Eric Eisenstein和Stephen Hoch發現﹐大多數人都低估了儲蓄的增值空間和借貸的最終成本。

問題是﹕人們是按單一利率而非複利計算。比如說﹐如果我們的投資以每年8%的利率保持十年﹐我們的收益併非許多人想的那樣為80%。

確切地說﹐我們的累計收益將會是116%。記住﹐我們不僅會從最初的投資上獲得利息﹐早期的投資收益也會生息。同樣﹐對於信用卡欠款﹐我們要為最初買東西的錢支付利息﹐還要為遺留下來的尚未支付的利息掏腰包。

任教於Cornell University Johnson Graduate School of Management的愛森斯坦教授說﹕“人們使用單一利率計算是因為他們不知道別的方法。利率越高、時間範圍越長﹐錯得就越離譜。”他指出﹐這個基本的數學錯誤解釋了人們為什么遲遲不願為退休儲存積蓄﹐以及為什么老是推遲還清信用卡欠款。

──推測錯誤。給我們下絆子的不光是信用卡。Dartmouth College的經濟學教授Victor Stango和Jonathan Zinman的新研究發現﹐我們沒有意識到﹐自己為那些所謂的“低月供”貸款付了多少利息。

這兩位作者分析了美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed) 1983年消費者財務知識調查的數據。在那次調查中﹐消費者需要回答這樣的問題﹕如果他們貸了1000美元買家具﹐分期12個月償還﹐他們願意最終總共還多少錢。

一些人回答1200美元﹐這意味著實際利率應該是35%。然而﹐當消費者被問及這個還款額對應的利率是多少時﹐98%的人都低估了。

每月還款額越低﹐我們就越有可能低估利率。為什么﹖我們做心算的時候﹐忽視了這樣一個事實﹕每個月的還款都是在減少貸款餘額。在短期貸款的情況下﹐每月還款額中的一大塊都是本金還款。

達特茅斯學院Tuck School of Business的斯坦戈教授說﹕“我們明白這些問題很難。人們會得出錯誤的答案也不稀奇。稀奇的是人們犯的錯誤總是同樣的方向。他們低估儲蓄的好處﹐同時低估舉債的代價。”

我們該如何避免這些錯誤呢﹖試試以下三個策略﹕

──如果你想申請“低月供”貸款﹐問問貸款機構﹐按年的服務費費率是多少。
那會讓你明白月供到底是低還是高。
斯坦戈說﹕“人們不敢問強硬的問題。他們擔心貸款會因此不被批准。他們不想讓自己顯得無知。”

──要想把握住借貸的成本和儲蓄的收益﹐可以試試一些在線的金融計算器。
www.dinkytown.com上有許多此類計算器。

──當你權衡是花還是存的時候﹐記住72定律。
用72除以你預計的投資回報率﹐就能算出讓你的錢翻一倍需要多長時間。
你估計每年的收益率能達到7%﹖用這個數字除72﹐就會知道﹐讓你的錢增加一倍需要10.2年。其中的意義在於﹕如果你存了1000美元﹐十年以後你就會有大約2000美元﹐20年以後就是4000美元──而30年以後就會變成8000美元的“巨款”。

學巴菲特 投資當呼吸

「投資就像呼吸一樣,是二十四小時運作!」巴菲特就是將投資與生活完全貼合,讓他能成為投資富豪,他的投資哲學成為投資寶典,不管是企業定律、經營、財務及市場定律,遵守相關準則,只要能學到巴菲特精神的一半,投資的這門課,就可望高分過關!

巴菲特的投資哲學其實很簡單,一是合夥心態、二是集中投資、長期持有。巴菲特在買進一家企業的股票時,想的不是將來賣出去的價差,他想的是,「買的是這家公司」,以合夥人的心態來買進。他採用的投資方式是: 集中投資在少數幾家一流的企業上,長期持有,累積經營的利潤。

巴菲特最經典一役,是買進大陸國營事業「中國石油」的股份。在油價尚未上漲之前,巴菲特即悄悄的在香港大買中國石油,累積買進股數達23億3800百萬股,買進總成本為4億8800萬美元,到2003年底,價值已升至13.67億美元。也因此,2000年,巴菲特的波克夏公司每股帳面價值為6.5元,2002年升到10美元,2003年進一步提高到21美元。

不過,巴菲特投資並非所向無敵,他也曾失利,例如看壞美元走勢,2005年因巴菲特看空美元,美元遠期合約上虧損了6.19億美元,使得公司上半年在該合約上的累計虧損達到9.26億美元。不過,巴菲特對自己的投資充滿信心,他說,看空美元是長期投資,不會因美元的反彈而改變對美元的看法」如今,美元落勢,證明巴菲特長線投資的堅持再堅持。

綜觀來看,巴菲點經典的投資哲學包含12條定律與15個投資原則,以投資企業定律來說,企業必須簡單且易於了解、企業過去的經營狀況必須穩定、企業長期前景必須看好;至於投資原則,最基本的法則就是要有耐性等待最好的時機出現才作投資,投資就如呼吸一樣,是二十四小時運作的。巴菲特認為,只要勤做功課、勇於認錯,投資並非難事。

巴菲特並不是一開始投資就萬事如意。但他60年投資路上的手法,經過時間的試煉,粹取出的經驗,更值得關注,例如,「別理會『市場』時時刻刻的報價」、「股票市場本來就是狂躁與抑鬱交替出現的場所,不能隨著市場價格而波動」、「持有好公司股票,即使證券市場關門也沒有關係,因為買的是事業不是股票」等。

簡單的說,巴菲特的投資策略,就是理性配置資產,而金融市場仍有理性的脈絡可循,巴菲特的成功,就在於找到這條 理性脈絡並絕不走失。

要在股市有斩获 忌猜股市走向衡量投资

要在股票市场大有斩获 ,除了不能盲目投资,并切忌透过猜测股市走向去衡量那个公司的股票是值得投资。

他说,世上无人能准确的猜测股市走向然后从中获利,因此最保险的方法,是在购买股票之前,务须了解及分析某家公司的运作、背景、财务情况等,来决定是否必须对这家公司做长远的投资。

冯时能从60年代开始在《南洋商报》经济专栏“投票与股市”和“投资路上”撰写评论,给广大读者提供股票投资指南。目前他任职上市公司高级总经理,专注开拓海外业务。

仅3%人靠股票赚钱
他指出,靠股票赚钱的人不多,根据他本身所研究及统计,能真正靠股票赚钱的只有约3%,兼且非常专业的股票投资者,他们都是了解长期投资、利用股市累积财富的专家。
“买某家公司的股票之前,必须清楚有关公司是否有前途、是否赚钱、背后由谁来管理、财务状况是否稳定、由什么因素会影响这家公司的营运等,这些都是有必要了解的。
“为何这么多人买股票,但成功的却寥寥可数?原因只有一个,大部分的人都对投资股票存有不好的印象、错误的观念,也对股票投资不甚了解。与赌博、取巧投机没有分别。”

他说,其实,股票就是一家公司的股份,买股票就等同于入股成为该家公司的股东之一,而不是把买进一家公司的股票,将有关公司的股票当成筹码。

他也说,股友也不鼓励一窝蜂的购买大热的股票,相反的,一些有价值但价廉的公司股票,或许在几年后蓬勃发展,并为股友带来更多的红利。

“不过,最重要的是股友懂得分析这家公司的运作是否能长期的成长,否则是徒然的。”

Indonesia, Philippines hike rates to check soaring prices

IN A fresh attempt by policymakers to curb inflation, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines increased their benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, the Financial Times (FT) has reported.
Manila's move, which took rates up to 5.25 per cent, was its first in three years. It came hours after the government announced year-on-year inflation had hit a nine-year-high of 9.6 per cent.

As for Jakarta, Thursday's rise to 8.5 per cent followed a similar rise last month, the first since December 2005, when rates hit 12.75 per cent.

Indonesia's year-on-year inflation last month was 10.38 per cent, the highest since September 2006, FT reported.

According to analysts, India and Malaysia, which both hiked petrol prices this week, were also likely to raise rates soon.

Some said the Reserve Bank of India might increase its benchmark rate from 7.5 per cent before its rate-setting meeting next month.

PHILIPPINES
Year-on-year inflation: 9.6%
New benchmark interest rate: 5.25%

INDONESIA
Year-on-year inflation: 10.38%
New benchmark interest rate: 8.5%

Elsewhere, Taiwan's core inflation rate, which measures consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose from 3.1 per cent to 3.23 per cent last month, its biggest gain in nine years.

China's inflation hit 8.5 per cent in April, but Beijing was expected to announce a small reduction for the year-to-May period.

Jakarta's increase in interest rates was only half as large as many analysts expected. It followed a warning from the state statistics bureau on Monday that the impact of a 28.7 per cent increase in fuel price last month had yet to feed through into the data.

However, Dr Boediono, Bank Indonesia's governor, said he would also use other tools at his disposal to control inflation.

These included acting on the exchange rate and absorbing excess liquidity by moving the benchmark rate from a monthly to an overnight rate, reported FT.

Mr Fauzi Ichsan, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Jakarta, said the rise in Indonesia's benchmark rate was 'cautious but probably right' because inflation was being driven by global factors.

He expected interest rates to rise to between 9 per cent and 9.5 per cent at the end of the year.

FT quoted the Philippine central bank as having said its move was partly motivated by indications that supply-driven pressures were beginning to feed into demand.

'Recent business and consumer confidence surveys also indicate an upward shift in inflation expectations, coinciding with increased term spreads on government securities and higher secondary market yields,' the Philippine central bank said.

Mr Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC, said the Philippine central bank would probably increase rates gradually to 5.75 per cent by the end of the year.

Faster inflation has increased pressure on President Gloria Arroyo to boost spending for subsidies to help poor households cope with rising food and energy prices.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

理债, 理财

所有东西都是两面的,主要是看那人怎么去运用.金钱是这样,债务也应该是这样.

适当的债务,可以令你更快达到财务自由.就说借贷买房子吧!如果没有银行的借贷,我想现在有很多人还是没有办法买上一个属于自己的"家".如果没有借贷,你可能会需要将你原本投资在股票的一大笔资金套现出来,用来买房子.这无形中又拖慢了你要达到财务自由的脚步了!.

再说信用卡吧!如果能够适当的利用,那你基本上你可以是说你在赚着银行的钱.你一方面利用银行给你的免利息贷款(20天)而你如果将那些现金放在一个DAILY INTEREST的户口,那是不是意味着你是在赚着银行的钱呢?别说没有,我就是其中之一.但我是利用这些现金为我减少着银行的贷款利息.要达到财务自由,不只应该要学会用钱,而且更应该要学会怎么去利用别人的钱为你做事.

当然!有一点我是经常强调的.别在背负着一大笔高利息的债务的同时,还想着去做投资这回事.就拿卡债或个人贷款来说,如果你本身还背着这些债务的,山芭佬还是劝告你,先别想着投资这事情了.先将那些高息的债务先解决吧!信用卡的利息是一年18%,你以为要在投资上每年赚到18%的利润是这么容易吗?山芭佬和你说:很难很难.就算一年给你赚到20%,算起来你也是亏本的.

怎么说?简单的说吧!


20 % - 18 % = 2%
一年的FD是3.7 %.
2 % - 3.7 % = - 1.7%
以上还没计算你买卖的手续费.
按照以上的例子,你为什么还要跳进股海,尝试去赚那可能是负数的回酬?除非你能保证你每年至少能达到22%的回酬,那你的投资才可以勉强说是正数的.(+0.3%)所以理财必须要有一定的程序.必须要先理债,后理财,最后才是投资.

可能你会说你等不及.你想马上就跳进股海赚钱.朋友!股票并没有说你一定要在什么时候就一定要进场的.没有日期的限制.只要还有一天股票市场还在开,那机会就永远还在.只要是个真正的机会,那这机会也不会说你一定要在今天做成的.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Reality check for 99-year lease top-up assumption

Recent decisions show such extensions not a given as govt retains planning flexibility

The market used to assume that the government would top up leases for sites to 99 years as they came up for redevelopment. A series of recent decisions - in which the authorities either declined lease top-ups or allowed them, but for shorter tenures - have put a big question mark over that assumption.

Property players say these decisions could have an impact on investment sales of 99-year leasehold properties or at least the way such deals are structured.

In January, when the proposal for Market Street Car Park's redevelopment into an office tower was made public, owner CapitaCommercial Trust revealed that the authorities declined to top up the lease for the site, which has another 65 years to run.

More recently, the market learnt that the former Crosby House site at 71 Robinson Road - which is being built into a new office block - had its lease topped up in April last year, not to the usual 99 years but 85 years and 10 months instead. This was apparently to match the remaining lease term of SIA Building next door.

BT understands that no lease top-up was granted for Marina House last year, which is proposed to be redeveloped, although HMC Building nearby (being developed into Lumiere condo) got a lease top-up to 99 years earlier. Sources say another building at Cecil Street has also had its lease top-up application rejected. Again, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) may have plans for the streetblock where it is located.

In recent years, the government has topped up leases of nearby sites to the original 99-year term, including 1 Shenton Way (being redeveloped into One Shenton), NatWest Centre (being redeveloped into The Clift) and HMC Building.

The recent decisions appear to run contrary to the perception that the government would generally agree to top up leases of such sites to the original 99 years, so long as the planned redevelopment scheme is in sync with URA's long-term vision for the area.

Instead, Singapore Land Authority (SLA) said: 'The government will generally allow leases to expire, without extension.' It noted that 'the state generally sells land on leasehold to allow it the flexibility to reallocate land to meet socio-economic needs.'

'However, the government has considered and allowed lease extensions based on whether the proposed redevelopment is in line with the government's planning intention and long-term development plans, and factors such as whether there would be significant intensification, or greater optimisation in land use. That remains the government's policy,' SLA said.

SLA evaluates each application on its merits and in consultation with the relevant agencies. The specific circumstances of each development dictate whether it should be given a lease extension - and for how long.

Market Street Car Park's lease was not topped up 'as there is a need to retain planning flexibility over the future development of the site', SLA said.

URA said it evaluates requests for topping up leases based on 'a range of planning considerations in relation to the specific location and context of the area'. This approach gives 'the state flexibility to review the longer-term plan for the area, as and when the existing leases expire or come in for extension in future, and to reconfigure the parcels, if required, to provide for better land utilisation', it added.

In the Central Business District, for instance, the considerations may vary from streetblock to streetblock, URA said, when queried about the unusual lease top-up to 85 years and 10 months for 71 Robinson Road. 'This lease period is sufficient to allow for the owner to redevelop the site to a new modern office building,' URA added.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah said: 'In the past, the government may have been pretty liberal in topping up leases. Now, they've to think of Concept Plan 2011 and how to accommodate a long-term population of 6.5 million people.

'So they have to be more creative and safeguard land for the future, by having a common lease expiry period.'

The head of a property consulting group said: 'URA's probably doing a housekeeping exercise of trying to coordinate lease expiries of buildings in the same streetblock, to give themselves some flexibility. So they may ask: 'What's the longest remaining lease in this block? Let's now try, going forward, to have leases in this streetblock expire at the same time, so that in future, if we want to do anything, we'll be able to do that.'

DTZ's Mrs Ong observes: 'There are many pencil buildings on tiny plots in the CBD. It would be more efficient if the government has common lease expiry periods for adjacent plots so that they may amalgamate them into bigger land parcels and resell them in future.

'It's more efficient to intensify land use for bigger land parcels. Globally too there's a trend of mixed developments, with a live, work, play environment. It's more environmentally friendly and reduces commuting time. For that too you need bigger sites.'

Developers turn landlords as property market stays quiet

With projects held back, firms lease out units bought in collective sales

STAYING ON:
The consortium that bought Lincoln Lodge has allowed occupants to keep renting homes for six months from the sale completion date of July 8.

PROPERTY developers such as Koh Brothers and GuocoLand, which bought collective sale sites during boom times, are now becoming landlords as they wait out the market slowdown.
They are leasing out apartments they bought to existing occupants as a way to generate some income instead of simply leaving them vacant.

If the property upswing had continued, these developers might well have moved quickly to tear down the older homes to put up new developments.

But the sharp slowdown in home sales has put paid to such thoughts for now.

Market observers say renting is a nimble move given present market conditions.

For sellers of units in collective deals who have yet to buy a new home, it is a win-win situation as they would have collected their sale proceeds.

Take, for example, the consortium that bought freehold Lincoln Lodge for $243 million in June last year.

It has decided to allow occupants to keep renting homes for six months from the sale completion date of July 8, and thereafter on a monthly extension basis.

'Upon requests by some of the sellers to stay on, and while waiting for approvals, we have decided to grant them this request by extending a lease,' said Mr Francis Koh, Koh Brothers' managing director and chief executive.

Rents at Lincoln Lodge range from $2,700 to about $4,500 for larger units.

In the middle of last year, at the height of the collective sale frenzy, Koh Brothers bought the Newton site with Heeton Holdings, KSH Holdings and Lian Beng Group for a record $1,449.30 per sq ft (psf) per plot ratio.

A Lincoln Lodge seller, who wished to be known only as Mr Tan, welcomed the rental move as sellers had collected sale proceeds in January, and those who had not bought a home could take their time.

'It's an option...I know someone who negotiated the rent down to $2,500,' he said.

GuocoLand seems to be the early rental front runner.

It offered residents short-term leases at Sophia Court in Adis Road last year, followed by Leedon Heights off Holland Road earlier this year. The leases started in March at Sophia Court and yesterday at Leedon Heights. Both last till Jan 31 next year.

A three-bedroom unit at Leedon Heights costs $2,850 a month, while rents at Sophia Court range from $800 to more than $4,000 a month.

GuocoLand bought Leedon Heights in April last year for $835 million and Sophia Court in late 2006 for $230 million.

Renting out units is a way to 'wait out the current quiet in the market', said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak.

'If developers were to launch their projects now, it may be challenging for them to reach their target price for some of the projects.'

Frasers Centrepoint said it may offer short-term leases to the former owners of the 185-unit Flamingo Valley, a freehold site in Siglap Road that it bought for $194 million in February last year.

'We had 50 owners who wrote to ask us to extend their lease...They haven't found anything suitable,' said the firm's general manager of development and property, Mr Cheang Kok Kheong.

He said the firm was likely to extend a lease of six months to a year. This would 'give us more time to think about our plans'.

City Developments (CDL) has said it is still exploring the renting option.

Renting out apartments bought in collective sales is not new. CDL did so a few years back, when it rented out all 124 apartments in Kim Lin Mansion in Grange Road.

It had bought it in late 1999 for $251 million, or $996 psf of potential built-up area, but pushed it out for sale only at the height of the property boom last year. It fetched prices of $3,600 psf.

Win-win deal
Developers lease out units to generate income instead of leaving them empty as they sit out the market slowdown.
Sellers of collective sale projects who have yet to buy new homes can stay on in their existing units as tenants.

TOUGH TARGET
'If developers were to launch their projects now, it may be challenging for them to reach their target price for some of the projects.'
MR MAK of Knight Frank, on companies holding out for better prices

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

熱……錢會繼續

中金公司首席經濟學家哈繼銘表示,今年越南多項經濟指標已亮起紅燈,貨幣危機一觸即發。5月份通脹率已達25.2%,5月19日央行將基準利率由8.75厘調升至12厘,銀行貸款利率上升到18厘,仍遠低於通脹率,未能有效控制通脹預期。今年1月至5月貿赤144億美元,外債規模已達240億美元,相等於GDP 30.2%,政府財赤已超過GDP 5%危險線。越南盾今年3月至上周五兌美元貶值2.7%,十二個月期貨較現貨低30%;越南股市今年跌55%。上周惠譽將越南主權評級展望由「穩定」改為「負面」。依家越南情況已同東南亞國家1997年面對亞洲金融危機前差唔多。

《廣州日報》報道,4月份中國外儲備增長744.6億美元,扣除貿易順差及外商直接投資後,不能解釋外流入高達501.8億美元。呢500億美元相信有唔少流入內地房地產及股市,部分則存入銀行。換言之,流動性過剩問題到今年4月仲未解決。由於投機者認為人民幣可見六算,人民幣出現1美元兌6元人民幣前,熱錢仍會流入,估計家熱錢規模已經達6500億美元。冇人知道呢筆資金幾時會流出,一旦出現,將嚴重威脅國內經濟同金融市場穩定性。

1952年美國家庭流動資產係負債250%(即手上現金或隨時可變現投資達負債250%),到去年卻回落到70%(即手上現金或隨時可變現投資係負債金額70%)。美國家庭手上流動資產減除負債最高峰係1990年,達淨流動資產1萬億美元以上;最差係2006年,為淨負債3萬億美元。1990至2006年美國到底發生乜事,令美國家庭由淨流動資產變成淨負債?就係因為次按日漸流行,愈愈多人借錢買樓,美國人從樓價上升中賺錢去消費。到2006年下半年美國樓價唔再上升,去年出現次按危機,鐘擺又由一邊擺向另一邊,長達十七年,由次按支持引發樓價上升潮結束,各位信唔信短期內可以解決?加上美國戰後嬰兒潮開始進入退休潮,愈愈多美國人賣樓套現。從呢個角度睇,美國樓價由2006年下半年開始調整唔會不久將來結束。

索羅斯認為,英國樓按情況較美國更差,依家先開始回落,對英國銀行影響較去年對美國銀行影響更大。英國家庭負債係個人收入148%(美國係125%),而英國金融業佔英國經濟8.5%(美國佔7.5%),加上英國政府決定向外國人抽稅,令唔少高收入外國人打算離開倫敦去蘇黎世,將進一步推低倫敦樓價。

Oppenheimer & Co銀行分析員Meredith Whitney去年曾提出警告,美國樓價回落遲早影響美國銀行。佢最近接受彭博TV訪問認為,另一場信貸危機快將開始。呢次係美國消費項目再次打擊美國銀行業,理由係銀行將信用卡貸款證券化後市場出售。過去消費者唔使擔心信用卡還款能力(因樓價上升,未能支付信用卡貸款亦可轉為樓按──本港亦漸漸流行矣)。信用卡貸款不但息高,而且呆賬率唔高。依家樓價回落,美國人信用卡貸款再唔能夠輕易轉為樓按貸款,8000億美元信用卡貸款點樣處理?

三不买

股票投资风险高,故投资者所承受的精神压力也特别大。尤其是投机者,在买进之后,总是提心吊胆,深恐血汗钱泡汤。所以,身在办公室,心却在股市,时刻生活在烦恼中,情绪受到干扰,甚至与家人的关系也受到影响,所付出的代价实在太大了。

如果生活不快乐,钱赚得再多,也没有意义。

假如你总是为股票而心烦,我劝你还是早日脱离股市,因为你不适合投资股票。

假如你认为股市是一条适合你的投资管道,那么,就必须设法控制自己的情绪,减少股市波动的冲击。

其实,这并不难,只要有正确的投资态度,同时下定决心,遵循一些简单的原则,就可以减少股票投资所引发的烦恼。

我的经验,也许可供参考。

我有三个“不买”的原则!

第一个原则,不买我不放心的公司的股票。

我常常出国,以前是公干,现在是观光。尤其是在退休之后,出国更频仍,一年少则六、七次,多则十次、八次,短则数天,长则大半个月,天涯海角、无远弗届。

在我买进股票的时候,我总是问自己一个问题:假如我出国旅行半个月,而旅途中没有我所买股票的信息,我会担心吗?

如果答案是“会”的话,很明显的,这只股票不恰合我投资。无论基本因素多么强稳,我都不会买进。

第二个原则:不买时时刻刻都要盯住它的股票。

如果在买进之后,我担心公司会“烂”掉;或公司领导人会耍花招把公司掏空;或是买价太高,股价随时下跌而使我蒙受亏损。只要具有以上情况中的任何一种,我都不会买进。

换句话说,在买进后整天要花时间去监视的股票,不恰合我投资。

我不希望终日生活在惶恐不安中,尤其是在退休之后。

第三个原则:在买进一只股票之后,万一股价大跌,我不敢买进更多,这种股票,我也不买。

没有人能担保,买进后股价不会下跌。

坚持原则生活轻松

在买进后,受到熊市的影响,股价一跌再跌,是很平常的事。

假如在股价大跌之后,你不敢买进更多同一只股票,表示你对这只股票,认识不够、信心不足,因此在价值被极度低估时,应该是最好的增加投资的时机,你却不敢加码,因而错过了低价买进好股的良机。

所以,在买进时,我总是问自己:假如股价大跌的话,我敢买进更多吗?

如果答案是“不”的话,我也不会买进。

当然,在股价大跌后,我还要做更多的功课,确定股价的下跌,不是基本因素改变,而是股市下跌的影响,这样才可加码买进。

如果基本因素改变了,即使股价已跌了一大截;我也加码买进,否则的话,我会亏得更多,甚至倾家荡产。

坚守以上的“三不买”,使我生活轻松,旅途愉快。

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

控制CPI升幅代價係大衰退

過去歷史,每次美國經濟泡沫破滅後,會導致國際資金回流美國,道指年底有望重返14500點,因為美元國際貨幣體系中仍處絕對優勢,美元透過大幅貶值將次按危機轉嫁,讓國際市場共同分擔,彌補和緩解流動性不足問題。例如呢次歐洲央行向市場注資遠超過美國本土,次按危機雖然發生美國,卻由國際市場共同分擔損失。

美國3月份核心CPI漲幅2.3%、歐羅區3.6%,俄羅斯4月份CPI漲幅14.3%,南韓、印度、印尼、中國、菲律賓、越南CPI漲幅亦創下多年新高。過去流動性過剩推高股市同樓價,令消費升幅擴大、能源短缺,導致商品甚至農產品價格上升。次按危機導致美國為首央行減息,再向市場注入流動性,國際油價一度見135美元一桶,玉米價格創新高。通脹已成世界通病。

事實證明,一旦利率低於CPI增長率,CPI便會漸漸唔受控制咁上升。過去中國、泰國、菲律賓等八個亞洲國家將貸款利率維持CPI升幅之下,產生負利率。美國2003年亦曾出現負利率,其後將利率推高;去年9月起又再減息,至今美國亦係負利率。咁多國家維持負利率,通脹又點能受控制?例如越南CPI大幅上升後,近期將利率推高至8.75厘,引發股市大災難(1997年7月本港早有先例),上述並非越南獨有。換言之,CPI大幅上升,之後才將利率推高至CPI升幅2厘或以上,雖然可控制未來CPI升幅,代價係經濟大衰退,因此任何時間皆不宜將利率推低至CPI升幅之下,各國央行不應為眼前利益而將利率壓低於CPI升幅,尋求短期利益。

1998年油價12.28美元一桶,今年5月最高見135美元,十年工夫油價上升十倍;其中最大升幅係去年5月至今年5月由62美元升上135美元,油價能否重見80美元一桶?maybe or maybe not。

投資界泰斗Dennis Gartman要求美國政府出售戰略石油儲量一億桶以壓抑油價,法國財長拉加德要求各國央行好好整理貨幣政策,矛頭直指美國近年不負責任貨幣政策係油價上升底因。

上周油價極端超買後,由135美元一桶回落,但上升軌未失守,未能肯定D乜。5月27日止投機性持有石油長倉合約已減少至二萬五千八百六十七張(去年7月31日係十二萬七千四百九十一張),即投機性持倉已大量獲利回吐,今後油價升降更能反映實質因素。

太平洋投資管理公司CEO Mohamed El-Erian認為,各國主權基金正阻止美國經濟熔毀(meltdown)。例如阿布扎比投資75億美元買花旗可換股債券;科威特投資30億美元買花旗股份,20億美元買美林證券;淡馬錫用44億美元買美林股份,新加坡投資局用69億美元買花旗;中國投資公司用50億美元買大摩可換股債券。咁做雖可阻止美國金融體系熔毀,但不能令美國經濟重新振作起來。

Sunday, June 1, 2008

贏家的修煉/克服投資心魔富一生

台股轉強,人氣回籠,過去半年的股災惡夢看似遠去。然而,學者專家此時卻提醒投資人,必須細細回想這場股災。因為,所有被人性心理所引導而成錯誤決策,必然都在股災現形,看見了,未來才能避得開。股災很痛苦,重新回想更殘忍,但這卻是投資進化的必經之路,一場從輸家變贏家的必要修煉。

■轉折/漲熱絡、跌冷清的人性廳堂

營業廳的場景彷彿就是股市眾生的一方縮影。行情走空,營業廳裡的人都不見了,不聽股價不看走勢,不願接受精神折磨;若是一旦行情轉強,人們就忽然顯得精神奕奕、自信滿滿。這或許是人之常情的心理反應,然而,在行為財務學專家的眼裡,這些人之常情的心理反應,卻是造成多數人陷入投資失敗命運的惡性基因。

「心理狀態影響投資行為,投資失敗的原因,九○%以上是來自於『人之常情』的心理!」世新大學財金系副教授,也是國內行為財務學的權威學者郭敏華說。

然而,郭敏華也提醒投資人,與其急躁入市,不如先回頭想想過去半年來股災期間的操作策略與投資行為,「從頭到尾仔仔細細地想過一輪,揪出那個曾經讓你遭受股災重擊的心理問題,這個過程,對於你的投資功力將有極大幫助。」

如果你已走出股災,恭喜你!如果你正打算重回股市,可以,時機不差,但也請你學會股災期間所給你的一堂課,這堂課的重點非關行情判斷的正確或失誤,而是關於所有投資行為的基本核心—— 投資心理學。或許不能讓你買到飆股短期致富,但絕對是在投資長路上能夠助你趨吉避凶的必修學分。

■心魔一:驕傲/對自己判斷太自信,導致隨便投資

「一定要從股災之前開始回想嗎?」廖太太怯怯地問,因為她簡直不敢多想,半年前,她的手上還有千萬元以上現金。

說起廖太太的股海浮沉,真可用大起大落來形容。她曾經把老公留下來的兩千萬元退休老本,玩到只剩兩百多萬元。「後來遇到一位中實戶,才又賺回一千多萬元。可惜,這位中實戶在去年八月說他不玩了。」

沒有達人老師帶進帶出,廖太太卻也閒不下來,「過去一年多來的經驗告訴我,買股票賺錢是很容易的事啊!」她要自己找明牌,每天一回到家就打開電視,轉到八十台以後的投顧老師節目,「每台都看,覺得這樣才能一網打盡『有人在顧』的股票。」聽一檔、買一檔,雖然也有少數個股小賺出場,但多數持股卻是嚴重套牢,半年下來賠掉八百多萬元。

股市名家李挺生分析,廖太太的第一個問題,也是多數投資大眾的通病,「隨便買,這是一切錯誤的開始。」他表示,隨便買的情況有兩種:一種是人云亦云,聽到明牌就搶進;另一種是衝動行事,看到指數上漲,就急著隨手挑一檔股票一賭運氣。無論是哪一種,都是在你不熟悉這檔股票的情況之下買進的。

因為不熟悉,所以不知道這檔股票接下來的漲或跌究竟是否合理:跌下來是市場錯殺嗎?漲上去是反映基本面或者純屬運氣?無從判斷,於是也就無法掌握停利或停損的適當時機,「簡單地說,當你隨便買之後,對於出場時機的掌握,就只能憑感覺、用猜的。」

李挺生口中的隨便買,其實頗為貼近投資心理學所討論的「過度自信」效應。美國著名財經學家,同時也是《投資心理學》一書的作者約翰.納夫辛格就表示:「人們總會有一種幻覺,認為自己所買的股票一定會強過其他股票。於是造成過度投資,或者過度承擔風險的結果。」

過度自信的心態屬於人之常情。換言之,多數人恐怕都有這樣的問題:容易相信自己的預測,然後,隨便買。

■心魔二:不服輸/害怕認輸的心態,造成出盈保虧

不幸的,李挺生說中了廖太太的命運。由於無法掌握適當的出場策略,只能憑感覺操作,因此她又一步步地踏進了第二個人性陷阱。

「一個月前,我終於沒錢再買股票了,想說賣出一點套牢的股票換現金,把記載股票交易的小本子拿出來,算了一下,這才發現手中的套牢股票,竟然多達五十檔。」五十檔套牢股票?她說,當時一度懷疑自己有沒有看錯。

郭敏華解讀,廖太太的第二個錯誤是「出盈保虧」,把小賺的股票都賣掉,而不願處理已經套牢的部位;漸漸的,滿手套牢,心理壓力愈來愈大,也愈來愈不可能理性因應盤勢變化。

「這種行為的背後隱藏著一個基本人性,人都喜歡追求自尊,討厭承認失敗,賣掉小賺股票實現獲利,能讓人感到快慰;而賣掉賠錢的股票等於承認自己投資失敗,基於人性,多數人會盡量避免。」郭敏華強調,這就是投資心理學所謂的「處分效應」。

根據世新大學針對國內股市投資人的一項調查,大約有五六%的投資人在決定賣出持股時,會優先考慮賣掉賺錢的股票。而在世新大學的另一個調查當中則指出,投資人若回頭自我檢討投資失敗的主要原因,有四五%的受訪者承認,是因為沒有做好停損動作。兩項數據說明,出盈保虧的處分效應是常見的人性心理,同時,也是投資績效的恐怖殺手。

出盈保虧是錯誤的選擇,但是更致命的重傷害,來自於「攤平」的心態。

陳媽媽是一位針灸師,在台北市萬華地區開業多年,如果是在平日上午掛號的客人,大概都知道診間的電視永遠鎖定股市頻道。「有些客人看我在玩股票,就開始報明牌。其中一位客人總是很準,應該說,過去都很準。」

去年年初開始,陳媽媽跟著客人的明牌買股票,嘗到不少甜頭,「就那一次,他叫我買一檔叫作原相的股票,還說是最後上車機會,股價將會飆漲。」她清楚記得,那一天是七月十日,原相股價的最高點,「我插完針就立刻打電話下單,買了兩張,買在五六五元。」

■心魔三:活在過去/考慮過去的成本,才會選擇攤平

隔日,原相股價向下急跌,陳媽媽沒有多想,決定再加碼兩張,「好像被催眠一樣,沒有想到會跌,只想到這樣可以降低成本,一旦飆漲,回本的速度更快。」她說出她的加碼邏輯,依循這個邏輯,原相一路下跌,她則一路攤平,不到兩周時間,手中已有二十張原相持股,平均成本五一○元。

結果,原相股價最低跌到一四○元左右。一月下旬,陳媽媽終於受不了資金壓力,而開始陸續停損出場。「每張大約賠掉三十五萬元,二十張,總共差不多賠了七百萬元。可惡的是,那個報牌的傢伙再也沒有來過了。」她憤憤地說。

世新大學做過這樣一個問卷調查:若你決定買進一檔個股,但在下單之前忽然看到這檔個股的負面消息,你會怎麼做?約有四九%的受訪者表示會暫緩下單。不過,如果是在「已經買進」這檔個股之後才看到負面消息,超過九成的受訪者卻都表示不會將持股賣出。

只因為「已經買進」,持股意願就立刻提高,這就是投資心理學中所謂的「沉沒成本效應」:當下的決策判斷,會受到已經付出的成本所影響。

這種心態反映在投資行為上,最明顯的就是攤平。郭敏華認為,賠錢的股票並非不能加碼買進,但買進的理由必須是「現在這個價位更值得買」,而不是「這樣一來,我的成本就降低許多」。這是兩種思考邏輯,一種是分析未來,一種是受困於過去。「走出過去的框框,才能看到新的可能。」郭敏華說。

■心魔四:鴕鳥/不能正視危機,讓你錯失反攻良機

若能擺脫股災期間的陰影,關注未來,那麼,在二月以來的台股強勢反彈當中,投資人不難獲得可觀利潤。

可惜,從融資餘額的變化狀況來看,多數散戶似乎沒有抓準這一波的台幣升值行情。根據交易所資料,一月底,台股融資餘額約在三○一三億元;至二月十九日大盤已經明確展開反彈行情時,融資餘額反倒降低至二九六六億元,顯然散戶未在低檔掌握最佳布局時機。

散戶為何總是慢半拍?美國知名的行為經濟學家喬治.魯文斯坦研究發現,「鴕鳥效應」或許就是其中解答。

所謂鴕鳥效應,意指投資人在行情好的時候,會經常檢視自己的報酬率和投資組合;但當行情走跌時,多數人就對報酬率和手中股價、大盤走勢不聞不問。情況就像營業廳裡的人潮變化一樣。

不看、不想,就能迴避買錯股票、看錯行情的挫折感,然而,這種心態也會令你喪失了調整投資組合的最佳時機,並進一步錯過了行情由空翻多的最佳布局機會。反過來說,若要在股災後段掌握反敗為勝的關鍵,第一要件就是克服鴕鳥心態的人性心理,就像蘇紀五先生一樣。

曾在上市公司與國際知名科技企業擔任行銷主管的蘇紀五,退休五年,如今是專業的股票投資人。談起股票投資,他說:「股票玩了三十幾年,沒有受過重傷,直到去年,差點晚節不保。」

「去年八月,我挑了一檔本益比偏低的電子股所羅門。」因為本益比低,所以即使股價一路下跌,他也不以為意,後來才發現,原來所羅門的低本益比是來自於業外收益,而非本業。恍然大悟時,所羅門股價已經腰斬,這是蘇紀五數十年來第一次嘗到重傷的感覺。

但相較於一般散戶在重傷之後選擇退出市場,蘇紀五的作法恰恰相反,「要認輸,但也要想辦法贏回來啊!」細細思考後,他在筆記本上寫下三個觀察重點:政府發布利多政策、成交量急縮、融資斷頭令萬箭齊發。「我告訴自己,當這三個現象都出現時,就是進場時機。」

此外,蘇紀五因看好兩岸政策開放行情,寫下了幾檔開放概念股的候選名單:味全、台肥、中華電、國泰金、鳳凰。

雖然不再進出,但蘇紀五卻仍隨時關心台股籌碼面與消息面的變化。去年十二月中旬,大盤一度連續急跌,融資斷頭殺出後,成交量快速萎縮至千億元以下,市場氣氛冷到冰點,而也就在當月下旬期間,陸委會主委陳明通表示,擬開放大陸客來台貸款購置房地產.

■教訓一:克己/克服人性,從確定投資理由開始

「進場的訊號出現了,我開始買進預設的股票。」各檔股票表現都能符合預期,而鳳凰的股價表現則是超出預期,「大概五十元買的,漲到八十幾元,獲利出場。」

「其實,投資的真理就是這麼簡單。」李挺生十分認同蘇紀五的作法,他強調,買股票,最重要的是找到投資的理由,這個理由包括了大方向的判斷,選股的邏輯,還有個股投資價值的分析。「如果寫不出具體的理由,只是沒有依據地認為會漲,那麼,就是在猜測,就會隨便買,開始走入投資失敗的道路。」

就像前面說的,錯誤的根源就在於過度自信心態之下的隨便買,一方面讓自己陷入持股過多的風險,同時也沒有足可憑藉的後續操作依據,進出動作只能憑感覺。這時,人性心理的弱點就會趁虛而入,讓你出盈保虧,滿手套牢股票,甚至引導你一路向下攤平,陷入慘賠深淵,到最後,讓你失去面對大盤的勇氣,也錯失了反敗為勝的契機。

這是一條由人性心理法則鋪成的投資流程,也是一條輸家之路。

那麼,贏家之路是什麼?「克服人性。而克服人性的首要條件,就是讓自己的投資理由具體化。」李挺生建議,投資之前一定要找到買股票的理由,分析它的風險點,然後別的不管,消息不必多聽,只要緊緊追蹤這些理由和風險點是否出現,以此作為買進和賣出的依據。

■教訓二:堅持/始終如一,執行自己的邏輯

李挺生強調,他看過各種股市獲利術,共通點就是「堅持自己的理由」,看線型買進,就不管消息面和基本面,只看線型決定是否賣出,看指數買的就要看指數賣、看業績買的就要看業績賣。

相對的,賠錢的投資人往往也有一個共通點:「他們總會忘記買進的理由,於是,理由已經不存在了,也還續抱不賣;要不然,理由明明還在,卻又聽到一些消息就急著賣。」他比喻:「你聽了呂宗耀的選股邏輯而進場,但又聽到葛林史班唱衰全球經濟而急著賣出。兩個人的說法都有理,但你的操作卻是大錯特錯,呂宗耀研究個股基本面,葛林史班是看全球總體經濟,出發點不同啊!」

獲選美國《商業周刊》最佳商業書籍的《魔球投資學》作者麥可.莫布新對投資人的建議,則比李挺生更加具象化,「每天都拿一張白紙,寫下你對手中持股的價位預期和停損點,以此作進出參考。」

郭敏華的建議則是融合前面二者。她認為,投資人必須先思考自己的投資風格,以此確定自己適合的選股邏輯和操作原則;再拿出白紙,寫下你的投資理由、最擔心的風險、股價停損點等等。每當你想賣掉賺錢股票時,就看看買進的理由是否變化;要續抱或攤平套牢股票時,也拿出紙來,看看還有沒有續抱的理由。

「只要是人,就有人性,當你克服人性心理的弱點之後,才能走向贏家之路。」郭敏華說。

Why momentum investing is risky during earnings season

MOMENTUM investing - a bet that what has gone up will keep going up - is risky at any time. But it is especially so during earnings season, when stocks often move up and down very abruptly; in fact, the top-performing stocks are particularly vulnerable during these periods.

And a new study has found that these high-fliers tend to fall immediately after their companies announce their earnings - whether those earnings are good or bad.

The study, 'Limited Attention and the Earnings Announcement Returns of Past Stock Market Winners,' has been circulating for several months in academic circles as a working paper. Its authors are David Aboody and Brett Trueman, both professors of accounting at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Reuven Lehavy, a professor of accounting at the University of Michigan.

Their findings serve as a warning about the risks of buying stocks whose prices have been pushed unjustifiably high by mass enthusiasm.

The professors looked at stocks that had been the very best performers over 12-month periods. Such stocks - those whose trailing 12-month returns were in the top one per cent of stocks traded on American exchanges - tend to rise quite predictably in the days leading up to their companies' earnings announcements - and then to abruptly give up all of those gains. The professors reached this conclusion after studying each earnings season from January 1971 through September 2005.

The patterns they found were quite pronounced. Consider two hypothetical portfolios that the professors built from this group of stocks.

The first bought each stock five business days before its earnings were to be announced, and sold each one just before the actual announcement.

The second portfolio bought each stock immediately after the earnings announcement and held the stock for five business days.

The first portfolio beat the market by an annualised rate of 47 percentage points, according to the professors, while the second lagged the market by an annualised rate of 43 percentage points.

(These rates of return reflect the effect of bid-asked spreads. Though they don't take brokerage commissions into effect, the professors say the portfolios would still beat or lag the market by large margins even after such costs.)

The professors did not find nearly as pronounced a run-up and drop-back among stocks whose 12-month performance was only slightly behind that of the stocks that led the momentum hit parade. Why was this pattern concentrated among such a small group of top performers?

The professors surmise that this is the answer: As earnings season begins, these stocks receive a disproportionate share of attention from small investors, no doubt largely because they are at the top of the leader board for 12-month returns.

This appears to lead many of those investors into bidding these stocks even higher, to levels that may be unsustainable.

The stocks decline when reality sets in - after the excitement of a positive earnings report ebbs, or, more sharply, after an earnings report disappoints the market.

These results would seem to illustrate a hazard of momentum investing - that it works only as long as it works. When momentum reverses itself, a stock may plummet.

It's theoretically possible that after dropping back in the wake of earnings announcements, this group of stocks will recover over the following few months, Prof Trueman said in an interview.

But he said that this study didn't investigate possible recovery trends, so investors would be going out on a limb in betting on one.

Another option for momentum traders would be to avoid altogether the stocks at the top one per cent of the rankings, betting instead on those that have performed just slightly behind those leaders - and thus were less likely to be magnets for some small investors.

As a result, Prof Trueman said, their prices will be less likely to be thrown out of whack.

Over all, though, the study suggests just how risky momentum strategies can be. Stocks that rise sharply may fall in just a few days' time. And they most definitely are not for the weak of heart.

Staying invested through the cycles

Q: When did you begin investing? Was there a trigger factor that made you start?
A: I began investing while at university, pre-1987, so the 1987 crash was my first experience with a bear market. I got together with a group of friends who had a common interest in stocks and shares. It was more of a hobby at that stage.

Q: Do you have a target? And does this target move with changes in your circumstances?
A: There is no target per se in terms of a sum of money. I am working towards an active 'retirement'. But what's really important for me is to ensure that I provide the right educational opportunities for my family, which will certainly involve my children being educated at international universities. I believe the experience will broaden their horizons in a rapidly globalised world.

'It's "time in the market" and not "market-timing" that creates long-term value ... I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more
of a marathon than a series of sprints.'
-Peter Flavel
Q: What investments do you have? Do you believe strongly in certain types of assets, like property or stocks, and so plan your investments accordingly?
A: I have about 70 per cent of my savings invested in a core portfolio with a balanced growth strategy. The balance is in a 'satellite' portfolio. For the core portfolio, I use a multi-manager approach and it rebalances quarterly to a pre-determined strategic asset allocation.

I am not averse to taking more risk in the satellite portfolio, so I invest in individual stocks and funds. I'm a firm believer in the long-term growth prospects of India and China, for instance. But care is needed as some assets have got ahead of themselves in valuation.

Q: Do you see yourself retiring in Australia and do you have property there for when you go back?
A: Like a lot of Australians, I tend to have a love affair with property. I had invested in some properties at an opportune time, and these include properties in Queensland, Melbourne and Bali. So I will spend some retirement time there, but I also expect to be spending time in the rest of the world, like Asia. I have been based in Asia for more than five years now, and can see myself spending some of my retirement here.

Q: You have young children. Does your investment plan include providing for them until a certain age before you tell them they're on their own?
A: Between my wife Theresa and I, we have five children. My investment plans include providing each of them with the right educational opportunities, right up to tertiary level, if they earn the right to be accepted into international institutions. I am a strong believer in instilling independence, yet doing enough to help them stand on their own feet, but they must create their own wealth opportunities.

I grew up in a family that ran hotels and farms, and my parents worked extremely hard, imparting strong values. Through that I have learned not to take things for granted, and that living with comforts comes about not by chance but through hard work.

Q: Do you believe in leaving money/property for your children?
A: What I believe in is to teach them the importance of education and making a career, and creating their own wealth, so they can be independent and financially secure. I think it's far more important to help them hone their fishing skills than to reel in the catch for them.

Q: Does your wife make her own investment decisions or do you consult each other?
A: It's a partnership. We consult each other on investment decisions.

Q: What kind of retirement do you envisage? Do you have a date for retiring?
A: I have difficulty envisaging myself enjoying a traditional retirement - that is, sitting back and not doing anything. What I probably will do is to continue to work for as long as I can, and ease into retirement. I will probably have a semi-retirement and work part-time. Life is meant to be enjoyed, but having an active mind and interests will continue for some time in my case.

Q: What has been your best investment?
A: I would say my decision to stay invested in the equities market through the various cycles. It's 'time in the market' and not 'market-timing' that creates long-term value.

My exposure in Standard Chartered shares has also been a good investment - I have seen it rising in the past five years.

Q: And the worst?
A: I had a residential property in Melbourne during the late 1980s as an investment when the market went sideways for several years. I eventually sold it but I had to hold the property for a longer time than anticipated.

Q: If one of your investments goes sour, do you curse and swear and ruthlessly cut losses, or go into a depression? Or do you see it as part of taking risks, and go on to something else?
A: I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more of a marathon than a series of sprints.

Q: What do you spend most money on?
A: A fair proportion goes to investing in the future. I'm pretty much a saver.

Q: What do you splurge on?
A: While not in the splurge category, when we do go on holidays we like to travel to some places. The family likes Bali, India, though generally all through Asia as well as a special favourite - Sunshine Beach in Australia, near Noosa.

Inflation's not going to whittle away my kid's future

Having lived in Brazil where annual inflation rates went through the roof, reaching 450 per cent in the 1980s, Mrs Alania Hsu Concepcion knows better than to leave out the impact of inflation when calculating the returns on her investments.

'Living in Latin America gave me a new appreciation of the concept of inflation and how most investors don't really consider how much of a threat it can be,' she noted.

'Inflation has the power to wipe out decent nominal returns and leave very little real return or future purchasing power. In Brazil, you don't look at any rate of return without accounting for inflation.'

As a result, Mrs Concepcion, 33, factors a 5 per cent to 6 per cent inflation rate into her personal investment assumptions.

An American who has been a Singapore permanent resident since 2004, she joined Barclays Bank in December last year as an associate director at its investor solutions desk.

In the past five years, she has lived in Sao Paulo, Beijing and Singapore.

She started actively investing about seven years ago. Although she has a private banker who helps her manage her finances, she calls the shots as to what to invest in.

After all, she works in the financial markets, which keeps her on top of what's going on.

She holds an MBA from the University of Sao Paulo and is also a certified financial analyst.

She is married to Mr Cesar Concepcion, 43, a country manager in China for pharmaceutical firm Novartis Oncology. They have a two-year-old daughter, Mia.

Before joining Barclays, Mrs Concepcion worked in Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and ABN Amro Bank.

Q: What are your money habits?
I have no debt besides mortgages, and I manage my savings and investments wisely. I am neither frugal nor lavish. I live comfortably but not excessively.
Most of the time, I buy the things I do because I like them or I need them. It's not a matter of how expensive or inexpensive they are.
I contribute whenever I can to my family and to people who need it, old and young, and organisations serving good causes.

Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?
Besides property, I have a few investment accounts, consisting mainly of mutual funds, stocks and bonds, commodities and some cash instruments.
I have a Central Provident Fund (CPF) account in Singapore that I'm planning to do more with through the CPF Investment Scheme.
My husband has a 401k plan - an employer-sponsored retirement plan common in the United States - and contributes to social security there.
We aim for a total return on our investments of 10 per cent to 12 per cent a year, and so far, we have exceeded these targets almost every year because of the diversification of our total holdings.
I'm also starting to put a portion of my portfolio into commodity funds, especially agricultural ones, to hedge against the increased cost of living as food prices rise around the world.
I think the world is entering a higher inflationary period, and we need to protect the real value of our assets.
I prefer to invest in actual agricultural commodities rather than resource stocks such as oil or gas because they participate fully in the rise in commodity prices, whereas resource stocks are prey to stock- market sentiment and company-specific risks.

I'm also a fan of emerging markets, but with these funds, I think it's especially important to focus on diversification. For instance, I would pick a global emerging markets fund rather than a single play on China. Market timing is also crucial.

We aim to generate a target sum of US$300,000 (S$411,300) through a tax-efficient college savings fund for our two-year-old daughter by the time she turns 18. We contribute on a monthly basis to this fund.

Q: What about insurance planning?
Both my husband and I have life insurance, disability insurance and health insurance through our employers, although, to be honest, it isn't enough. We plan to take out additional life insurance, as well as critical illness insurance.
Now that we have a daughter, I think it's important to be prepared in the event of an unforeseen emergency.

Q: What's your investment philosophy?
Diversify, diversify, diversify. I don't believe in putting all my eggs in one basket.
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.
We buy real estate, so that we will have rental income to supplement our living expenses when we retire.
Rental income does rise with inflation and, therefore, provides a good hedge.

Q: What are your property investments?
My husband and I own a five-bedroom country home that sits on 2ha of land on the eastern seaboard of Virginia in the US, and a two-bedroom colonial beach apartment in Puerto Rico.
We are in the midst of buying a three-bedroom apartment in New York City as an investment property.
Now is a good time to buy US properties, as interest rates are low and mortgage rates are favourable.
I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.

Q: Money-wise, what were your growing-up years like?
My father is a mathematician, and my mother is a linguist who worked for the United Nations and is now with the World Health Organisation. They have four children.
My father used to give me a monthly allowance of about US$25 when I was young. I had to put 20 per cent of that in my bank account.
When I think of how I went to the bank every month at the age of 10 to deposit US$5, I have to laugh, but it was a principle that worked.
I have a brother who is also in the finance sector. These days, he runs his own hedge fund.

I think my family background has made me appreciate the value of a dollar, and has motivated me to invest wisely and plan for the future using both property and the financial markets.

Q: What has been a bad investment?
Keeping all of my investments and properties in US dollars. The greenback has depreciated and lost roughly 30 per cent over the past five years.

Q: Your best investment to date? Hard to say. Our properties have done well. I have a Brazil fund that has given stellar yields of more than 30 per cent annually since 2004.
Commodities have performed superbly over the past few months and should continue to do so.
I also have a few bond funds that have outperformed most of my equity funds, and my inflation-linked securities have outperformed other liquid instruments such as treasury bonds and long- term certificates of deposit.

Q: What's your retirement plan?
Work hard until I'm 50, invest our money wisely in the markets, contribute diligently to our retirement accounts, flip a few properties and pay off our mortgages, and then retire to our homes in the US.

Q: And your home now is...?
A three-bedroom condo in the Holland area.

Q: And your car is...?
I prefer the convenience of a taxi. I don't believe in buying expensive cars as they are depreciating assets.

Buy when market is on the uptrend
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on the need to spread out one's investments

Timing is everything when buying property
' I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on property purchases

末日博士的投資智慧/麥嘉華 從小細節看見大趨勢

當市場上的投資專家對未來經濟情勢眾說紛紜,我們需要傾聽不一樣的聲音。六月二十六日,末日博士麥嘉華即將來台發表演說,談論他對於下半年的全球市場展望。這位總是和市場唱反調的大師,又將提出什麼驚人之語?值得令人期待。

投資界中,總是有勇氣提出不同見解,靠著與市場反向操作賺大錢的大師級人物,大概就屬末日博士麥嘉華(Marc Faber)最為知名了。

一次又一次,在市場分析師一片看多的情況下,麥嘉華總會像個討人厭的異端分子,就這麼忽然跳了出來,堅持高唱反調。反調嚇人,更嚇人的是這些違反市場普遍共識的諸多言論,總是準確得令人背脊冒汗。

■別當「遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」

「在恐慌性殺盤時,投資人應該買進,但在一片買進熱潮中,最明智之舉就是出清持股。」這就是麥嘉華最常掛在嘴邊的名言之一,市場封為「反向操作理論」。說理論太高深,或許在麥嘉華的眼中,一切旁人視為莫測高深的預言判斷,只是來自對於眼前真實景況的合理推論。重點不是高深,而是不帶偏差、合理地觀察真實世界。

「無論經濟、政治情勢如何變化,投資人總會傾向朝著正面的說法來加以解讀。」麥嘉華曾經發表言論,把多數終日埋首於股市買賣的投資人形容為「感覺遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」。與其說他是在嘲諷多數的股票市場投資人,倒不如看成他是藉由近似嘲諷的文字,點出股票市場令人瘋狂、喪智與偏執。

對於已發生的事實,人們總會偏執主觀地過度解釋。而麥嘉華之所以異端、反向、高深,之所以是「末日博士」,只是因為單純客觀地尊重現實。

最顯而易見的例子,就是在他○一年時看好黃金市場。當時金價約在二六○美元的價位,回頭看,這則預言已讓投資人暴賺二·五倍以上。至於當年看好黃金的原始理由,說穿了,實在不太高深,不過就是兩張線圖比一比而已。

「八○年代時,黃金價格每盎斯約八百美元,剛好,當時道瓊指數差不多也在八百點。不過,○一年金價跌到每盎斯二六○美元,道瓊指數卻爬到了一萬點以上。」兩張線圖的起點一樣,後續發展卻大不相同,這引起了麥嘉華對於黃金投資機會的初步興趣。

接著,他又看到了另一個擺在眼前、卻沒有太多人願意關心的事實。「亞馬遜網路公司的市值是三百五十萬美元(於○一年時),而現在你只要有三百萬美元,就能買下全世界所有黃金礦脈公司。」二○○一年,網路泡沫吹到令人目眩,而麥嘉華的簡單計算,卻一舉點出了網路泡沫之將滅,以及黃金價值之崛起。當然,這番說法在當時並未引起投資人太多青睞.

唱衰美國 援引自機場經驗
如果隨時留心麥嘉華的各處言論,或許就能發現,其實早在去年二月間,他不但已經預測美國金融資產即將崩跌,甚至,字裡行間也已透露出美國老大地位逐漸褪色的命運。

這仍然是從一些簡單的親身經驗開始推論。

「我必須經常至美國出差,關於這點,我認為像是上天給我的一種懲罰。」他回憶起入境美國時在機場所遇到的誇張刁難,然後開始像個孩子似地直覺發想,「美國人的問題,就是太自大、太傲慢了。」接著,麥嘉華逐漸理解這個國家何以無視於不斷擴大的貿易赤字,也以此推論出美國的世界競爭力逐漸衰退、赤字恐將持續擴大的未來新局。

而這篇文章的主題之一,就白紙黑字地清楚寫著,「避開美國金融資產」。半年之後,美國次貸問題全面引爆。

斷定空頭 從網路消息推論
到了今年初,麥嘉華一不小心又看到了壞消息。不是什麼重大的經濟數據,也不是哪個金融機構虧損慘重,看到的是一則沒有引起太多注意的網路調查。「根據美國信用卡網站CreditCards.com的調查,為了支付暖氣費,多達二千七百萬名美國人必須在今年冬天借貸度日,其中還有二千萬人得使用信用卡才能繳交暖氣費用。」他以此為引,再度發表後市推論。「美國家庭的財務狀況已出現了大問題,導致零售業的股價表現不濟,因為人民支出減少,代表企業獲利也將下降,如此一來股市更會走向下跌一途。」他肯定地說。

即使不少投資機構近期陸續對美國下半年景氣發表樂觀看法,但麥嘉華仍然堅持來自於網路調查所推演的看空結論,並且轉化為實際的投資策略,「抱著現金可以賺到二%至三%的利息報酬,好像少了一點,但總比持有下跌一○%的股票來得好!」不像其他投資大師的樂觀,日前麥嘉華在接受《今周刊》專訪時,坦言「現在找不到令人興奮的投資方向」。

「不過,手中持有許多現金部位,目的也就是希望在好的時機出現時,可以即刻有資金快速進場。」操作保守不代表心態保守,末日博士麥嘉華,將會繼續冷靜看世界。

Singapore property prices have peaked - govt

SINGAPORE, May 23 (Reuters) -

Singapore''s booming property market has peaked and will continue to moderate over the next two years, the country''s trade ministry said on Friday.

Singapore''s central bank said that while the financial servicesindustry could face some slowdown there was no evidence of a large job cuts.

"There could be some slowdown, but not major slowdown. Anecdotal evidence shows that while financial institutions are reviewing headcounts and business lines, they arealso looking at several areas of growth," Monetary Authority of Singapore Deputy
Managing Director Ong Chon Tee told a news conference.

養錢 賺錢高手的致富祕方

油電高漲,手上的錢愈變愈薄,薪水階級怎麼把錢變大?其實只要找對方法,即使手上資金不多,也可以把小錢變大錢。巴菲特說:「投資就如同呼吸一樣,是24小時運作。」

這是處於M型社會裡,大家共同的疑惑——為何有錢人口袋裡的錢能不斷長大,而自己的卻不斷縮水?《有錢人和你想得不一樣》一書作者T. Harv Eker,提出了解答:有錢人把每一塊錢都視為「種子」,把它種下之後可以多賺一百塊錢,再把這些賺到的錢種下,又多回收一千塊錢。

其中的關鍵點在於「學習」,有錢人會去了解各種投資工具,找一個可以讓錢長大的領域,研究它,成為專家。

這就是有錢人「養錢」的「撇步」。賺錢高手總會費盡心力,找一個適當的地方,把錢放在那兒,讓錢長大!

公務員出身,談事業、從不談理財,目前擁有數億元身價的福懋建設董事長江子超,首度披露投資心法,是典型養錢成功的例子!

回想過去,在縣政府任土木科技師的二年又二個月日子,江子超百感交集,對照過去和今天的成就,他的確幫自己的錢,找到一個很好的長大環境。

培養「養錢」習慣》堅守「二律原則」,規律以及紀律

江子超:投資要做好,一定要做足功課之後,用對策略。
二十五年前,福懋建設董事長江子超,只是個縣政府的土木科技師,每個月拿二萬多元的薪水,過著一般公務員的生活。白手起家的江子超談到創業歷程,戴著金邊眼鏡背後的他眼神精亮,開始細數當年父親如何拿房子抵押,借他一百萬元,及妻子張簡麗香替他在外張羅一百萬元,總共約二百多萬元創業基金的過程。

一九八五年創業,八八年把創業賺來的錢投資股市,開啟了他的養錢之路。

「我平常就是這樣,一邊看財經新聞,一邊跑步……。」江子超在二十坪大的房間裡,邊跑邊聊起他平日的投資生活。江子超形容床頭櫃上,一落落已閱讀過的財經雜誌,《和巴菲特同步買進》、《看見價值》等多本投資相關書籍,七十六吋電視螢幕、跑步機以及筆記型電腦,形成了他的另一個「無形公司」,讓他能投資全球!

早晨六點至七點是江子超的起床時間,簡單用香皂洗個臉,吃完早餐後,江子超就開始他規律的生活。八點前,江子超一定看完鉅亨網等財經訊息,八點到公司後,再花二個小時,修正投資配置。

接下來,處理公文、開會、看工地,傍晚六點回家吃完晚飯後,則是他消化全世界金融訊息的時間,「十點、最晚十點半,我一定上床睡覺。

我很重視規律!」江子超開玩笑的形容自己是「宅男」,生活的紀律和投資一樣嚴格。
「我深信,一個成功的人,紀律很重要,要管理好投資,首先一定得先管理好自己。規律的生活,就表示你是會控管自己的人。」「我的生活老早就是『二個太陽』。」江子超白天開設計會議,看工地;晚上幾乎都要花二至三個小時,閱讀道瓊等指數以及全球各國的報紙,讓自己和全世界的經濟脈動接軌,周末還撥出一整天時間,閱讀所有完整的外資報告。

規律以及紀律,是江子超很堅持的一部分,對於這位數億身價的賺錢高手而言,規律是成功投資的第一步。

找尋「養錢」標的 培養「投資嗅覺」
雖然,目前江子超已累積了許多人幾輩子都賺不到的財富。但他強調,這一切根源有很大部分來自於在金錢管理下了很大的工夫。「愛因斯坦不是說過,世界上最偉大的發明不是原子彈,而是複利!」

從江子超八八年開始投資股票算起,至今,約有二十年時間,他說這些日子自己費了不少工夫,為錢找到好的處所,用複利方式,讓錢在對的地方被養大!

生活在「二個太陽」裡,江子超樂在其中,對於他來說,投資很大的樂趣來自於印證自己對未來的看法很準確。其中最得意的一役是躲過八九年四月的台灣股災!回想起這一段,江子超臉上流露出自信得意的微笑。

「印象很深刻,那一天是四月三日,兒童節前一天,一早,我眼睛睜開,就和老婆說,今天要賣股票,而且要『總清』(閩南語,清光光的意思),老婆還問我,是連股子股孫都要賣嗎?我還回答:『對,總清!』」江子超四月三日賣出所有股票,四月十七日,台灣發生股災,股市持續狂瀉,江子超卻毫髮無傷!

雖然這樣的經驗看來很神奇,但對於江子超而言,這都是有跡可循。「因為三月二十九日那天,成交量已經出現大問題,這是很大的警訊!」

對於其他人來說聽起來很玄,但對江子超而言,這一點都不意外;因為,長期以來,在全球金融資訊中打滾,市場一有異動,他就能如警犬般,嗅出變化的味道。

同樣的,○七年八月得知Fed降息,江子超提早嗅出台股下跌味道,減碼出場,「去年,我一直不看好台股。」每天,江子超都會把台股和港股的周平均量和日平均量擺在一起參考,如果是每況愈下就減碼,節節上升就加碼。「去年年初,台股和港股就出現分岔,因此那個時候我對台股就開始減碼,減了幾千萬元,最低到持股五%。」也因為長期注意的關係,江子超又成功躲過了去年的大股災...

抓住社會脈動/更準確地擊中投資標的

每個月,江子超都會抽空到香港、澳門待上二天,除了和不同銀行的基金經理人吃飯外,就是看樓房,「目的不一定是要買,而是要抓到社會脈動的神經;只要抓住地區社會經濟脈動的神經,一定會賺,如果沒有抓到,就會人云亦云!」

江子超不論去任何地方,都一定會把找尋投資標的順道放在行程裡,「以在香港看房地產來說,每看一間,仲介人都會把房市、景氣以及投資市場跟你分析得很詳細;看到第三間,對於當地的情況,就很瞭若指掌了,要再找到投資標的就不難了。」每個月到國外了解投資趨勢,是江子超下投資判斷的重要資訊來源之一。

同樣的方法,也發生在ING安泰人壽業務經理薛妙玲身上。「近年來,旅行,是我找尋投資靈感的方式之一。」薛妙玲形容,工作了二十多年,旅行五十多個國家,近幾年來,深刻體會到原來很多的投資資訊,可以從旅行經驗中獲得。

「二○○二年,在公司同事介紹下進場俄羅斯基金,到現在,獲利有五倍以上。」薛妙玲解釋,會有如此高的獲利,在於她買了俄羅斯基金後,又到當地旅行,回來之後,立刻加碼。

薛妙玲拿出近百張當年在俄羅斯拍的照片來,「你們看,環境那麼好,居民教育水準高,科技進步,再加上有石油等天然礦產,那地方早已不是當年想像的俄羅斯。條件這麼好的國家,沒有理由不去投資。」旅行回來之後,即使很多人勸她,俄羅斯基金可能已到了高點,但她還是相信自己眼睛所看到的實景,硬是加碼,至今才有五倍的獲利。

薛妙玲認為,當年她聞到了俄羅斯基金可以加碼的味道,進場有了不錯的獲利;現在,她則聞到非洲的投資味道。薛妙玲提到自己的客戶在南非發展七年多,如今,已成為千萬富翁。為了印證自己的想法,因此,即使非洲已去了五次,但仍計畫再去一趟。「要想致富,就要找個好地方,把錢養起來。」

一邊旅行,一邊蒐集投資資訊,也成了薛妙玲找尋養錢標的方法之一。


發揮「養錢」力量/讓多頭、空頭兩個腦替你賺錢

湯瑪斯.史丹利(Thomas Stanley)在著作《下一個富翁就是你》(The Millionaire Next Door)將北美擁有千萬資產的富豪作了整理,下的結論是:「有錢人很善於管理金錢。」也就是如《有錢人和你想的不一樣》一書中所提:有錢人並不比窮人聰明,只不過有錢人管理金錢的習慣和窮人不一樣,而且比較有效,如江子超就是用系統有效的方法,來管理他的金錢流向。

「我有兩個公司,一個有形公司,一個無形公司。」江子超很得意自己管理金錢的方式。對他而言,有形公司是指本業房地產公司,無形公司就是他和他的筆記型電腦。每天,他都會照顧這兩個公司,讓兩個公司,同時幫他賺錢。

其中無形公司的管理,江子超還用「兩個腦袋」來管理它,「我用兩個腦袋來管理無形公司,一個是『多頭腦袋』,一個是『空頭腦袋』。」他認為惟有如此,才能讓無形公司的財富快速地增加。

江子超認為,很少人能在多頭和空頭市場都賺到錢,因此要能把錢養得好,一定要做足功課、用對策略,「多頭時期用『多頭腦袋』,空頭時期用『空頭腦袋』,用二種腦袋來做長線投資。」

所謂的「多頭腦袋」,指的是在多頭行情時,選擇強勢區域、強勢產業裡的龍頭股,等到好價錢之後出手。

至於「空頭腦袋」,是指當空頭市場來臨,選擇殖利率高於定存的股票來投資,如台塑或是中鋼等。或是做外幣定存,每月結清獲利,並視匯率狀況調整,避開匯兌風險,到年底約有一○%報酬。

江子超進一步解釋多頭行情的選股策略,他舉近來得意之作——中國人壽。

江子超對自己眼光精準,頗為得意。他說,以台灣壽險業來看,它占台灣GDP的一四%,但在中國只占四%,顯見很有發展潛力。再加上中國人壽在該國壽險業市場占有率超過六○%,當然是龍頭產業;江子超推算合理價格是二十至二十三元間。○五年底時,開始觀察研究,等到○六年價格在二十二元以下時,就快、狠、準「敲進」。投資港股,讓江子超獲利超過一倍。

「我的大原則是『集中獲利,分散持有』。」江子超認為,就他整個投資生涯來說,除了用「多頭腦袋」和「空頭腦袋」兩個大腦幫他賺錢外,還以「新錢」(new money)和「舊錢」(old money) 來區分整個資產。

他解釋,「new money 就是本業賺進來還未有任何用途的錢,也就是集中獲利的部分。至於拿來投資各種理財工具的錢就是old money,這部分的錢,則要分散持有,所以會依據多頭或空頭市場來調整投資比例。」

「換句話說,new money代表一個江子超,old money 也代表一個江子超。當old money 賺的錢和new money一樣多時,等於二個江子超在賺錢。」江子超形容,一旦old money是new money兩倍時,就是三個江子超在賺錢……。

這就是養錢的力量。

控制「養錢」風險/形成自己的看法後,減少動作「保錢」

「我的原則是,股票大跌時進場『撈底』(香港用語,股市跌到谷底時去撿便宜),大跌大買,小跌小買。但我一旦進場,一定把要買下手的那一檔,從基本面到技術面從頭到尾研究清楚,蒐集各方資訊後,找出合理價格,設定之後,就開始等待。」

「對於錢的感覺要『冷冷的』,很衝動一定賺不到錢。」江子超很強調「等待」的重要,「我一年真正大幅進出股市,大約就二次,而且會把所有經濟景氣循環的訊息,以及價量關係、技術分析,都搞得很清楚。虧損七%至一○%就會停損。」

對於風險控管,江子超異常謹慎。他舉了一個例子,「九八年台灣房地產跌落谷底,高雄有九三%的建商倒閉時,我想了十三招防護網來控制我所有資產,包括控制投資風險。但至目前為止,我一招都沒有用過,因為通常損失在七%至一○%,我就會停損。」

會養錢,也要會「保錢」。經歷過投資市場大起的風光,也看過大落的窘境,使得賺錢高手們,深諳錢財的來去之道,因此,對於「風險」會特別小心謹慎。

「把心放小一點比較舒服。」前中信證資深副總沈文恕同樣也出身公務員家庭,且因服務於金融業,對風險特別敏感。八五年他冒險大量買下二十元中國信託未上市股票,獲利超過+二十倍,替自己打下深厚財務基礎,其後投資就轉為保守。

沈文恕控制風險的方式,也和江子超有異曲同工之妙,江子超善於「撈底」;而沈文恕則是「超跌才投資」。

在進場時,沈文恕通常會先以小部分資金「試水溫」,一旦確定是底部位置,就大量進場;他在資金控制上小心翼翼,選擇先買三分之一的部位,再進剩下資金的二分之一,若沒有跌至一五%至二○%,就不會再進場。「不要口袋有錢,就非買不可。」沈文恕強調。

享受「養錢」的成果/過愜意生活

江子超這幾年來,除了投資與營建事業之外,潛心投入慈濟公益活動;身居天母靜謐巷內的沈文恕,則將投資市場收益轉為藝術收藏,過著愜意的退休生活;薛妙玲仍四處旅遊,放鬆自己的同時也搜集投資訊息。

他們最初都只是薪水階級,但藉由「養錢」方法,把小錢變成大錢,過著愜意生活。學會養錢方法,不必很大的本錢,你也可以把自己的小錢養成大錢!

■江子超

年齡:四十八歲

投資年齡:二十年

投資履歷:二○○七年買進香港交易所股票,獲利二倍;同年,投資中國人壽,獲利二倍。

給投資者三句話:投資要做好,一定要做足功課之後,用對策略。大跌大買,小跌小買。

對於錢的感覺要「冷冷的」,很衝動一定賺不到錢。

■薛妙玲

年齡:四十八歲

投資年齡:十年

投資履歷:二○○二年買入俄羅斯基金,獲利五倍;二○○六年,投資紅酒獲利四○%;二○○五年投資買霸菱香港中國基金,獲利二倍。

給投資者三句話:養成儲蓄的習慣。

不要把全部雞蛋放在同一個籃子,要做資產。

不要短進短出,要長期投資。

■沈文恕

年齡:五十八歲

投資年齡:二十五年

投資履歷:一九八六年,投資中國信託未上市股票,漲了至少二十倍;二○○六年在海外購得中國A股基金,賺了三倍;二○○五年買香港基金,賺了一倍。

給投資者三句話:年紀輕時積極,資金大時要分散,注意風險。

注意基金的幣別,幣別分散,再去選基金。

基本面不變,保有現金,超跌時才進場,不要進出太頻繁。

股神的「雜貨店經營學」 巴菲特用3000萬換13.5億的智慧

一個13歲的毛孩子,把爺爺當年經營雜貨店的精髓,一點一滴,運用在公司的經營上面,不但延續了家族企業的經營火種,更創造驚人績效,締造出舉世聞名的波克夏王國,這位有神奇魔力的小男孩,就是當今股神與全球首富——巴菲特。

這是一位七十七歲的智慧老人,照著十三歲時腦中的圖像,一點一滴,完成爺爺當初未竟夢想的故事。

「……十三歲時,我在祖父的雜貨店中住了四個月,就睡在堆滿《讀者文摘》的小房間中……他當時計畫出一本《如何經營雜貨店》的小書,就要我這個廉價勞工,把他所有的想法,用舊的計帳本背後空白的部分,全部記下……」這是巴菲特(Warren Buffett)今年為他表弟比爾.巴菲特(Bill Buffett)的新書《食物饗宴》(Foods You Will Enjoy)中,寫的一段話,記錄當年在祖父奧尼斯(Ernest Buffett)雜貨鋪中學到的種種。

雖然爺爺的出書計畫最後失敗,但這四個月的朝夕相處,埋下了華倫.巴菲特成為一代偉大投資家的種子;祖父經營雜貨鋪的哲學,更成為波克夏在四十年間,能從即將倒閉的紡織廠,壯大成為兆元帝國的基礎。

第一堂課》現金流入大的商品就是寶

經營雜貨店的人都知道,本小、利多、周轉率高的產品,是生存的不二法寶。以後見之明來看,波克夏購併公司的標準及條件,竟和當年巴菲特家族經營雜貨鋪選擇上架貨品的條件,如出一轍,找的對象都是一些投資小,但現金流入大的公司。因此,當初躺在雜貨店貨架上的熱門商品,卡夫卡奶油、OREO餅乾、麥斯威爾咖啡、箭牌口香糖、Milky巧克力棒,甚至連當初製造雜貨店外送車隊的馬門(Marmon)集團,在過去一年中,陸續投入波克夏懷抱。

巴菲特家族的雜貨店不是奧瑪哈最早成立的雜貨店,卻是當地活得最長的鋪子之一,在孫子華倫.巴菲特還未成為資本市場的一方之霸時,老巴菲特早就已經是奧瑪哈零售業講話擲地有聲的意見領袖。他常掛在嘴邊的話就是:「成功的雜貨店老闆得帶著腦子上工!」(The master merchant must use his head)。

第二堂課》設定安全邊際就能存活

他說,雜貨店經營要能存活,最重要的是如何應付生意清淡的日子。周六生意一定好,周日及周五就算差一點,也不至於差太遠,最重要的是如何應付清淡的星期一、星期三及星期四,「每一個工作天都有不同的計畫,如此,開了張,錢才會跑進來」。錢進來之後,更重要的是如何運用它,「如何把錢安全地投資在對的地方,比賺錢進來難太多了!」這樣「沒想成功、先想敗」的經營邏輯,與巴菲特及其恩師葛拉漢的投資理論核心「安全邊際」(Margin of Safety),幾乎沒有二致。

有了安全邊際的概念,巴菲特在集團擴張時,信心就多了三分,即使價錢稍貴一些,只要時機掌握得對、企業價值看得準,其他都不是問題。

不論是收購卡夫食品八.六%股權,或是與M&M巧克力集團,共同買下箭牌口香糖集團(Wrigley's),價錢都比市場估計得高,特別是箭牌集團的買進溢價高達三○%以上,連巴菲特在今年股東會上都承認:「價錢其實不是這麼便宜,但我確定它們絕對不在高檔,價錢雖不低......但我就是愛這種牌子老、經營穩的大食品廠,它們的地位非常難被扳倒,我情願用高一點的價格,買下一家績優公司,也不願用低價買一家爛公司!」

第三堂課》品牌優,小本也能滾大利

老先覺當然有他自己的邏輯,在今年巴菲特給股東的信中,巴菲特特別以喜思巧克力(See's)為例,談到了這個品牌食品廠,如何小兵立大功,帶來日後十三.五億美元的現金流入,一點一滴幫助他打造波克夏江山。

股神的算盤是這樣撥的。波克夏在一九七二年以二五○○萬美元,買下喜思巧克力,當時營收約三千萬美元、獲利只有五百萬美元,每年所需營運資本約為八百萬美元;三十五年間,喜思靠著品牌及小本經營,營收及獲利連年成長,至去年為止,獲利已經超過八一○○萬美元,若把這三十五年間淨利加總起來,金額更高達十三.五億美元,比當年的五百萬美元,整整膨脹了二七○倍。

這樣的巨幅成長,營運資本只較當年小小增加了四倍,至四千萬美元。換句話說,喜思只要保留不到四千萬美元的資金,就可以把賺到的十三多億美元資金,全部「繳庫」給母公司,再由波克夏做進一步的投資運用,巴菲特喜歡的就是這種品牌食品公司「本小利大」的媚力。

把這個邏輯釐清之後,巴菲特投資這兩個品牌大廠的道理就越來越清楚了。以卡夫食品來說,旗下擁有的品牌包括:OREO巧克力夾心、麥斯威爾咖啡、RITZ餅乾、Milky巧克力,都是卡夫食品旗下的重要品牌...