如果美国经济倾覆,其它国家也决计无法幸免,世界各国必须同心协力才能战胜这次金融危机
欧洲和亚洲现在必须采取行动来拯救全球经济,在北京召开的亚欧首脑会议已经错过了一次黄金机会——时间被浪费在讨论长期命题上,如构建新的世界经济架构,而不是聚焦于各国在世界经济局势的稳定上应该扮演怎样的角色。
11月15日,在华盛顿特区召开的世界经济峰会应该着力讨论如何维持经济体的稳定,而不能继续浪费时间在“应该谁来负责任”或者“未来应该是什么样的”这些问题上。
如今的市场上弥漫着诸如“大萧条”、“饭碗”、“战争”等词汇,这样的消极情绪会让事情变得更加糟糕。一个未被关注的事实是,我们正在面对的问题可能并没有想象得那么严重:即使是此次危机的风暴中心美国,目前其损失达到了其GDP的规模,但这种情况也远远无法与日本经济崩溃时的损失相比——当年的数字是GDP的三倍。
与10多年前的日本经济危机相比,由于金融全球化,这次危机蔓延得更快也更加广泛。盎格鲁撒克逊模式的完全市场化特点使得这个经济泡沫破灭之后,其资产贬值的速度快而猛烈到无法控制的地步,这也是为什么这场危机看起来如此可怕。
此次危机的深度和广度很可能将颠覆全球化的努力,并带来一场时日久远的低迷。萧条则会使保护主义抬头,当每个国家都采取这种控制措施的时候,全球经济这张大饼就会萎缩得更厉害。萧条带来的政治不稳定甚至可能带来战争——一种国家用来转移公众注意力的好手段。
战争会让经济下滑更快,这样的恶性循环之前已经多次扮演了摧毁世界的角色,这种发展态势应该并且必须被阻止。欧洲和亚洲应该首先施行总量在其GDP5%左右的财政刺激政策,接下来将它们的庞大外汇储备从美国政府债券上脱身,转而投入股市,尤其是美国股市。如果这两项措施能够被执行,世界经济可以更快的稳固。只有在此之后,我们才可以集中于重建经济结构来防止下一次危机。
这是一次盎格鲁撒克逊式的债务危机,这种经济体过度举债的另一面就是它的债权国持有了10万亿美元左右的外汇储备。未破灭之前的资产泡沫使得盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家有足够的资本来举债,这同时造成了它们每年1万亿美元的贸易逆差。
这些逆差正是来源于欧洲和亚洲国家的供给——短期看来,每一个主要国家都是泡沫的一部分,而不单单指美国。要想解决问题,每个人都有责任。
这次的泡沫破灭之后,盎格鲁撒克逊模式势必迎来一个长期的低迷时期,副产品之一就是贸易赤字的大幅缩减——很可能超过一半。即使这些国家能够通过降低利率和实行扩张的财政政策来暂时缓解颓势,这一主题也不会改变。
因此,其它国家不论采取何种经济政策,都将面临国际贸易的巨大市场缩减,除非拓展出足够的国内需求,否则它们也将面临大规模衰退。
另一个有趣的观点是观察资产贬值的财富效应。50万亿美元的账面损失将会带来相当于2.5万亿到3万亿美元,或4%至5%的总需求减少。这将会使目前的经济发展速度至少放缓一半。但是,需求紧缩具有乘数效应,这将带来更具规模的需求缩小。即便是全球经济增加2万亿美元的财政刺激,似乎仍然不可能缩小这种连锁效应。
这些刺激措施应该是让欧洲和亚洲允许美国减少贸易赤字。对于亚欧国家来说,除了增加需求刺激,更加紧要的一件事情就是增加对于盎格鲁撒克逊模式国家的风险投资。此外,由于其市场过高的杠杆率,最佳办法是放弃美国国债,转而购买指数型基金等产品。
盎格鲁撒克逊国家的资本缺乏和发展中国家的巨额外汇储备是硬币的两面。除非中国、日本和石油输出国组织成员采取行动,盎格鲁撒克逊国家将会面临严厉的紧缩,从而给每一个国家带来贸易萎缩的深重痛苦。
另外,对于信奉价值投资的投资者而言,股价已经足够便宜了。这正是沃伦·巴菲特现在正在做的,也是日本央行、中国人民银行和其它机构应该做的,这能够拯救这个世界,同时也能让投资者得益。
全球经济已经着火,每一个国家的政府都应投身于救火,现在是行动的时候了。
How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives. 自强不息 勤以静心,俭以养德 天地不仁, 強者生存
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
价值投资 做好股票的收藏家
投资要大气
记者:“您的投资回报很高,您是如何做到的?”
李剑:“主要是我持有的公司质地不错,而我又握住不放。但也要承认,有运气的成分:A股股改后这两年涨的太凶了。我不希望这样。我希望好股也应慢慢涨,不要让我有要卖的念头。”
记者:“现在学价值投资的人很多。您对他们有什么建议?”
李剑:“投资要大气一些,选股要严格一些,赚钱要耐心一些。我认为,投资要大气这五个字很重要,否则学价值投资就学不到精华。学价值投资当然比学技术分析和听小道消息好得多。
投资要大气包括这么几点,首先是在思想意识上要有远大目标。
第二点是眼界要高,这是第一点的顺延。我们要挑选的应该是极优秀的公司,不只是在行业中最佳,而且要在国内市场中最佳。
第三点是不要在操作上讲究小的技巧,什么高抛低吸,什么止损,什么底部顶部。更不要去计较小的利益,比如一点差价呀,波段呀。
第四点就是心理稳定,不去理会大盘的波动涨跌,也不要去预测短期的走势。”
记者:“您的意思是技术分析的不确定性很大吗?”
李剑:“是的。你看波浪理论最为典型,大浪里面有小浪,小浪下面有细浪,走向永远有无数种可能。”
股不惊人誓不休
记者:“听说您有一句很酷的话,叫作‘股不惊人誓不休!’请问什么样的股票才是惊人的股呢?”
李剑:“我想大概有这样两层意思,一是它的涨幅能达到一百倍以上。第二层意思是它须要‘万千宠爱在一身’,就是要拥有多种独一无二的竞争优势。”
记者:“一百倍!听起来是有些惊人!具体应该怎么来选择这样的优秀上市公司呢?是不是要多看财务报表?”
李剑:“我首先要说读财务报表只是价值投资的一个小的方面,这方面我自己就走了一段弯路,把眼睛弄的更差了不说,还差点钻进牛角尖里去。注意研读财务报表只是表明关心基本面,这与专看K线图和听小道消息者确实不一样,但这还不算是价值投资,更不等于是学巴菲特。我认为,调查和思考企业的重大问题,比如持续竞争优势问题,盈利模式问题,未来利润增长点问题,管理层问题等等,才是价值投资首先要关心的几个问题。这些问题财务报表上没有,或者说不直接反映。”
记者:“那要从哪些方面去分析?”
李剑:“首先考虑公司有没有独一无二的竞争优势。这个‘独一无二’极其重要,你会一下子就把优势公司和一般公司筛选出来。我有个习惯,如果我用半个小时都找不出一个‘独一无二’出来,我就要放弃它了,尽管它可能看起来股价较低。如果是股友问我某只股票怎么样,我一般也是先反问:它有什么独一无二的优势吗?”
记者:“您说的独一无二的竞争优势,是不是就是指核心竞争力呢?”
李剑:“包括核心竞争力,但不光是核心竞争力。严格说,核心竞争力是管理科学的概念,管理学是科学,投资则是科学与艺术的结合。在投资学上,独一无二的竞争优势含义要丰富得多。”
记者:“哦,您是说独一无二的竞争优势有很多种,是吗?”
李剑:“我归纳了一下,大概有五种吧。虽然它们互相之间有一点重合或者互为因果,但为了思路清晰,还是分类叙述为好。
第一种应该是垄断优势。按照经济学上的‘垄断’的含义,是指单一的出卖人或少数几个出卖人控制着某一个行业的生产或销售。我喜欢用自己的话说,就是独家生意。当然,这种垄断必须是价格不受管制的垄断。”
记者:“那么第二种优势呢?”
李剑:“第二种应该是资源优势。资源就是与人类社会发展有关的、能被利用来产生使用价值并影响劳动生产率的诸要素。很多公司都拥有各自的资源。资源的关键在于稀缺,按照稀缺的程度可以分成不同的等级。我最喜欢的是具有独占性质的资源优势的公司。
第三种就是能力技术优势了,也就是大家讲的最多的核心竞争力。这个比较好理解。能力指的是公司团队在决策、研发、生产、管理、营销等方面的能力。
第四种应该是政策优势。政策优势主要是指政府为加强相关产业的战略位置,制订相关有利于发展的行业政策与相关法规,使相关产业形成某种具有限制意义的优势。”
记者:“那么第五种呢?”
李剑:“还有一种是行业优势。行业分析是我们投资者作出投资抉择的很重要的一步,有时甚至是投资成功的先决条件。因为有些行业牛股成群,你投资的赢面高;有些行业却牛股稀少,你投资获胜的概论低。”
记者:“拥有了您说的其中一种独一无二的竞争优势,是不是就可以买入这家公司呢?”
李剑:“不,这还远远不够。我的意思是,有了其中一种独一无二的竞争优势就有了关注的前提了。接下来要考虑的是这种优势能不能形成极强的赢利能力?我们投资股票,最重要的一点就是看它有没有良好的收益,所有的优势最终也还得落实在收益上。”
记者:“您认为极为优秀的公司平均每年的利润增长率至少应该是多少呢?”
李剑:“我前面说过‘股不惊人誓不休’。好股票应该具有数十倍以上的成长潜力和前景,平均每年的利润增长率不能低于20%,能超过30%就更好。”
记者:“有了某种独一无二的竞争优势,又有极强的赢利能力,是不是够条件了呢?”
李剑:“还不够,还要看它的优势和盈利能力能不能长期保持。也就是通常所说的持续竞争优势。这一点难度更高,更有技术含量。”
记者:“您一直没有谈到价格,价格不太重要吗?”
李剑:“价格当然重要,好公司加上好价格才是好股票。”
耐心是一种美德
记者:“接下来该是谈收藏的问题了。您好像是一个特别有耐心的人吧?您的一些股票五年多没动一下,您怎么能守得住?”
李剑:“投资股票和其他事情不一样,你不长期持有就很难稳赚不赔,很难成就一番事业。”
记者:“怎样把握不要卖呢?”
李剑:“既然是精心挑选的好公司的股票,那你就要像收藏家一样把它收藏起来。没有卖出的那一天。因为长期而言,股市永远向上,特别是优势企业的股票。”
记者:“难道涨得很高了也不卖吗?”
李剑:“有些东西说说容易,比如高抛低吸,实际操作时很难判断什么是高,什么是低。这些是自己能力圈之外的东西。”
记者:“也会有公司因为基本面变坏而从此一蹶不振吧?如果出现这种情况,您坚持不卖的观点是不是就遇到了强有力的反驳呢?”
李剑:“公司一蹶不振的情况也不能完全排除。但我们还是可以坚持不卖。这似乎不太符合巴菲特的思想。但我仍然认为这是对的,而且这是经过认真思考和实践过的。我很喜欢彼得林奇的看法,假如你有一个10只股票的长期投资组合,中间有一只股票出了问题,由于选的都是极为优秀的公司,那么我们持有的其他9个股票还是在给你赚大钱。进一步说,一个优秀公司的基本面出了问题,你可能事后才知道,而这时股价已经下跌了不少,这时卖出很难说是正确的行动。”
记者:“当我们发现了更好的公司股票,可不可以卖呢?”
李剑:“这种情况不叫卖了,叫换股,因为总的投资数量和投资金额没有变,还是在收藏好公司的股票。只要不是太频繁,这是可以考虑的。”
记者:“您已经谈了严格挑和不要卖,对随时买没有讲到,而且,这里还有个问题,随时买,又有价格问题了。万一买到高价的股票怎么办?”
李剑:“前面说过,价格问题是个复杂的问题,甚至是可遇不可求的问题,能力圈之外的问题。不要动太多的脑筋去想买入时机的问题。不同的人参加工作有先后,入市时间有早晚,一旦决定投资,难免会买到高点低点,但有了严格买和不要卖,即使是不那么幸运,最终还是会大获全胜。”
记者:“‘严格挑、随时买、不要卖’是您成功的秘诀吗?”
李剑:“我还谈不上什么成功,不过是在严格挑方面下的工夫多一点,收藏起来耐心一点而已。”
记者:“您的投资回报很高,您是如何做到的?”
李剑:“主要是我持有的公司质地不错,而我又握住不放。但也要承认,有运气的成分:A股股改后这两年涨的太凶了。我不希望这样。我希望好股也应慢慢涨,不要让我有要卖的念头。”
记者:“现在学价值投资的人很多。您对他们有什么建议?”
李剑:“投资要大气一些,选股要严格一些,赚钱要耐心一些。我认为,投资要大气这五个字很重要,否则学价值投资就学不到精华。学价值投资当然比学技术分析和听小道消息好得多。
投资要大气包括这么几点,首先是在思想意识上要有远大目标。
第二点是眼界要高,这是第一点的顺延。我们要挑选的应该是极优秀的公司,不只是在行业中最佳,而且要在国内市场中最佳。
第三点是不要在操作上讲究小的技巧,什么高抛低吸,什么止损,什么底部顶部。更不要去计较小的利益,比如一点差价呀,波段呀。
第四点就是心理稳定,不去理会大盘的波动涨跌,也不要去预测短期的走势。”
记者:“您的意思是技术分析的不确定性很大吗?”
李剑:“是的。你看波浪理论最为典型,大浪里面有小浪,小浪下面有细浪,走向永远有无数种可能。”
股不惊人誓不休
记者:“听说您有一句很酷的话,叫作‘股不惊人誓不休!’请问什么样的股票才是惊人的股呢?”
李剑:“我想大概有这样两层意思,一是它的涨幅能达到一百倍以上。第二层意思是它须要‘万千宠爱在一身’,就是要拥有多种独一无二的竞争优势。”
记者:“一百倍!听起来是有些惊人!具体应该怎么来选择这样的优秀上市公司呢?是不是要多看财务报表?”
李剑:“我首先要说读财务报表只是价值投资的一个小的方面,这方面我自己就走了一段弯路,把眼睛弄的更差了不说,还差点钻进牛角尖里去。注意研读财务报表只是表明关心基本面,这与专看K线图和听小道消息者确实不一样,但这还不算是价值投资,更不等于是学巴菲特。我认为,调查和思考企业的重大问题,比如持续竞争优势问题,盈利模式问题,未来利润增长点问题,管理层问题等等,才是价值投资首先要关心的几个问题。这些问题财务报表上没有,或者说不直接反映。”
记者:“那要从哪些方面去分析?”
李剑:“首先考虑公司有没有独一无二的竞争优势。这个‘独一无二’极其重要,你会一下子就把优势公司和一般公司筛选出来。我有个习惯,如果我用半个小时都找不出一个‘独一无二’出来,我就要放弃它了,尽管它可能看起来股价较低。如果是股友问我某只股票怎么样,我一般也是先反问:它有什么独一无二的优势吗?”
记者:“您说的独一无二的竞争优势,是不是就是指核心竞争力呢?”
李剑:“包括核心竞争力,但不光是核心竞争力。严格说,核心竞争力是管理科学的概念,管理学是科学,投资则是科学与艺术的结合。在投资学上,独一无二的竞争优势含义要丰富得多。”
记者:“哦,您是说独一无二的竞争优势有很多种,是吗?”
李剑:“我归纳了一下,大概有五种吧。虽然它们互相之间有一点重合或者互为因果,但为了思路清晰,还是分类叙述为好。
第一种应该是垄断优势。按照经济学上的‘垄断’的含义,是指单一的出卖人或少数几个出卖人控制着某一个行业的生产或销售。我喜欢用自己的话说,就是独家生意。当然,这种垄断必须是价格不受管制的垄断。”
记者:“那么第二种优势呢?”
李剑:“第二种应该是资源优势。资源就是与人类社会发展有关的、能被利用来产生使用价值并影响劳动生产率的诸要素。很多公司都拥有各自的资源。资源的关键在于稀缺,按照稀缺的程度可以分成不同的等级。我最喜欢的是具有独占性质的资源优势的公司。
第三种就是能力技术优势了,也就是大家讲的最多的核心竞争力。这个比较好理解。能力指的是公司团队在决策、研发、生产、管理、营销等方面的能力。
第四种应该是政策优势。政策优势主要是指政府为加强相关产业的战略位置,制订相关有利于发展的行业政策与相关法规,使相关产业形成某种具有限制意义的优势。”
记者:“那么第五种呢?”
李剑:“还有一种是行业优势。行业分析是我们投资者作出投资抉择的很重要的一步,有时甚至是投资成功的先决条件。因为有些行业牛股成群,你投资的赢面高;有些行业却牛股稀少,你投资获胜的概论低。”
记者:“拥有了您说的其中一种独一无二的竞争优势,是不是就可以买入这家公司呢?”
李剑:“不,这还远远不够。我的意思是,有了其中一种独一无二的竞争优势就有了关注的前提了。接下来要考虑的是这种优势能不能形成极强的赢利能力?我们投资股票,最重要的一点就是看它有没有良好的收益,所有的优势最终也还得落实在收益上。”
记者:“您认为极为优秀的公司平均每年的利润增长率至少应该是多少呢?”
李剑:“我前面说过‘股不惊人誓不休’。好股票应该具有数十倍以上的成长潜力和前景,平均每年的利润增长率不能低于20%,能超过30%就更好。”
记者:“有了某种独一无二的竞争优势,又有极强的赢利能力,是不是够条件了呢?”
李剑:“还不够,还要看它的优势和盈利能力能不能长期保持。也就是通常所说的持续竞争优势。这一点难度更高,更有技术含量。”
记者:“您一直没有谈到价格,价格不太重要吗?”
李剑:“价格当然重要,好公司加上好价格才是好股票。”
耐心是一种美德
记者:“接下来该是谈收藏的问题了。您好像是一个特别有耐心的人吧?您的一些股票五年多没动一下,您怎么能守得住?”
李剑:“投资股票和其他事情不一样,你不长期持有就很难稳赚不赔,很难成就一番事业。”
记者:“怎样把握不要卖呢?”
李剑:“既然是精心挑选的好公司的股票,那你就要像收藏家一样把它收藏起来。没有卖出的那一天。因为长期而言,股市永远向上,特别是优势企业的股票。”
记者:“难道涨得很高了也不卖吗?”
李剑:“有些东西说说容易,比如高抛低吸,实际操作时很难判断什么是高,什么是低。这些是自己能力圈之外的东西。”
记者:“也会有公司因为基本面变坏而从此一蹶不振吧?如果出现这种情况,您坚持不卖的观点是不是就遇到了强有力的反驳呢?”
李剑:“公司一蹶不振的情况也不能完全排除。但我们还是可以坚持不卖。这似乎不太符合巴菲特的思想。但我仍然认为这是对的,而且这是经过认真思考和实践过的。我很喜欢彼得林奇的看法,假如你有一个10只股票的长期投资组合,中间有一只股票出了问题,由于选的都是极为优秀的公司,那么我们持有的其他9个股票还是在给你赚大钱。进一步说,一个优秀公司的基本面出了问题,你可能事后才知道,而这时股价已经下跌了不少,这时卖出很难说是正确的行动。”
记者:“当我们发现了更好的公司股票,可不可以卖呢?”
李剑:“这种情况不叫卖了,叫换股,因为总的投资数量和投资金额没有变,还是在收藏好公司的股票。只要不是太频繁,这是可以考虑的。”
记者:“您已经谈了严格挑和不要卖,对随时买没有讲到,而且,这里还有个问题,随时买,又有价格问题了。万一买到高价的股票怎么办?”
李剑:“前面说过,价格问题是个复杂的问题,甚至是可遇不可求的问题,能力圈之外的问题。不要动太多的脑筋去想买入时机的问题。不同的人参加工作有先后,入市时间有早晚,一旦决定投资,难免会买到高点低点,但有了严格买和不要卖,即使是不那么幸运,最终还是会大获全胜。”
记者:“‘严格挑、随时买、不要卖’是您成功的秘诀吗?”
李剑:“我还谈不上什么成功,不过是在严格挑方面下的工夫多一点,收藏起来耐心一点而已。”
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
美国又有两家银行倒闭!
“美国又有两家银行倒闭”。这是一则新闻的标题。
这个怵目惊心的标题给读者的印象必然是:美国 经济完了。
在一般人的印象中,银行是最稳定的,如今连银行都倒了,还有什么不会倒的?
银行是靠公众人士的存款赚钱的。
全世界银行的资本适当比例(Capital adequacy)大同小异,都是8%。
这表示,银行拥有1令吉的资金(包括股本和储备金),才可以接受12令吉的存款和借出12令吉。
没有公众人士的存款,光靠本身的资金,根本无法赚钱。
如果银行不稳定,谁还敢将钱存放在银行?
如今美国银行接二连三倒闭,难怪一般人有“美国完了”的感觉。
这种感觉,形成错误的印象。
这错误的印象,源自对美国银行认识不够。
马来西亚只有9家本地银行,即使1家倒闭了,后果已不堪设想。
美国今年到目前为止,已有19家银行倒闭,情况之糟,可想而知。
实际上,在美国,倒闭了19家银行,根本是芝麻小事,不值得大惊小怪,也不足以反映美国经济实况。
请看以下数字:在2007年底时:
美国商业银行总数:7283家。
资产1亿美元以下的有:3065家。
资产1亿至10亿元的有:3705家。
资产10亿元以上的有:513家。
在过去5年中,美国小银行的数目不断的减少。
在2003年时,美国有7,769家银行,到2007年时,只剩7282家,减少了487家,平均每年减少近100家,或是每3天就减少一家。
而减少的都是小银行,中大银行的数目实际上有增无减。
例如在2007年中,资产1亿元以下的银行就减少了180家,但资产1亿至10亿元的银行却增加了43家,10亿元以上的银行增加了19家。
这表示小银行不断的被中大银行拼呑了。
银行倒闭社会冲击微
就以本文开始时所提到的“又两家银行倒闭”中所提到的两家银行,其中一家存款为37亿元,总资产为51亿元;另一家更小,存款只有4亿5千万元,总资产只有5亿6千万元,属蚊型银行。
这两家银行都被别的银行收购了,存户的存款完好无损,所以,对社会的冲击微乎其微。
美国小银行减少,是司空见惯的事,不是大新闻。
如果你以为今年美国有19家银行倒闭(其实是被拼呑),反映美国当前的经济情况,那就大错特错。
根据事实数据才可靠
我举这个例子,旨在说明一点:在解读新闻资讯时,如果知识不够的话,很容易被误导而形成错误的印象,导致错误的结论。
以错误的结论作出的投资决定,肯定也是错误的。
此之谓差之毫厘,失之千里。
惟有根据事实和数据,所达致的结论,才是可靠的。
但经济,尤其是金融业,错综复杂,又瞬息不变,要掌握事实和数据,又要加以分析,是极端困难的日子,绝大部份人都没有这种能力。
绝大部份的人,只根据不全的资讯,片面的评论,作出判断,难怪大部份判断都是错误的。
根据错误的判断,作出的投资决定,后果肯定是悲惨的。
为了减少错误,减低风险,我主张散户抓住以下五个原则:
⑴不要企图去抓时机(Timing),因为根本没有人知道何时才是最低。
⑵坚守反向策略,在所有人都悲观时(如现在),大胆买进股票。
⑶以企业的赚钱能力及资产价值,作为选股标准(目前大部份股票价值被低估)。
⑷只买五星级股票,作为长期投资。
⑸最好是买周息率(D/Y)这比银行定期存款利息高一倍的股票。
散户若能坚持以上五原则,可以做到胜多败少。
这个怵目惊心的标题给读者的印象必然是:美国 经济完了。
在一般人的印象中,银行是最稳定的,如今连银行都倒了,还有什么不会倒的?
银行是靠公众人士的存款赚钱的。
全世界银行的资本适当比例(Capital adequacy)大同小异,都是8%。
这表示,银行拥有1令吉的资金(包括股本和储备金),才可以接受12令吉的存款和借出12令吉。
没有公众人士的存款,光靠本身的资金,根本无法赚钱。
如果银行不稳定,谁还敢将钱存放在银行?
如今美国银行接二连三倒闭,难怪一般人有“美国完了”的感觉。
这种感觉,形成错误的印象。
这错误的印象,源自对美国银行认识不够。
马来西亚只有9家本地银行,即使1家倒闭了,后果已不堪设想。
美国今年到目前为止,已有19家银行倒闭,情况之糟,可想而知。
实际上,在美国,倒闭了19家银行,根本是芝麻小事,不值得大惊小怪,也不足以反映美国经济实况。
请看以下数字:在2007年底时:
美国商业银行总数:7283家。
资产1亿美元以下的有:3065家。
资产1亿至10亿元的有:3705家。
资产10亿元以上的有:513家。
在过去5年中,美国小银行的数目不断的减少。
在2003年时,美国有7,769家银行,到2007年时,只剩7282家,减少了487家,平均每年减少近100家,或是每3天就减少一家。
而减少的都是小银行,中大银行的数目实际上有增无减。
例如在2007年中,资产1亿元以下的银行就减少了180家,但资产1亿至10亿元的银行却增加了43家,10亿元以上的银行增加了19家。
这表示小银行不断的被中大银行拼呑了。
银行倒闭社会冲击微
就以本文开始时所提到的“又两家银行倒闭”中所提到的两家银行,其中一家存款为37亿元,总资产为51亿元;另一家更小,存款只有4亿5千万元,总资产只有5亿6千万元,属蚊型银行。
这两家银行都被别的银行收购了,存户的存款完好无损,所以,对社会的冲击微乎其微。
美国小银行减少,是司空见惯的事,不是大新闻。
如果你以为今年美国有19家银行倒闭(其实是被拼呑),反映美国当前的经济情况,那就大错特错。
根据事实数据才可靠
我举这个例子,旨在说明一点:在解读新闻资讯时,如果知识不够的话,很容易被误导而形成错误的印象,导致错误的结论。
以错误的结论作出的投资决定,肯定也是错误的。
此之谓差之毫厘,失之千里。
惟有根据事实和数据,所达致的结论,才是可靠的。
但经济,尤其是金融业,错综复杂,又瞬息不变,要掌握事实和数据,又要加以分析,是极端困难的日子,绝大部份人都没有这种能力。
绝大部份的人,只根据不全的资讯,片面的评论,作出判断,难怪大部份判断都是错误的。
根据错误的判断,作出的投资决定,后果肯定是悲惨的。
为了减少错误,减低风险,我主张散户抓住以下五个原则:
⑴不要企图去抓时机(Timing),因为根本没有人知道何时才是最低。
⑵坚守反向策略,在所有人都悲观时(如现在),大胆买进股票。
⑶以企业的赚钱能力及资产价值,作为选股标准(目前大部份股票价值被低估)。
⑷只买五星级股票,作为长期投资。
⑸最好是买周息率(D/Y)这比银行定期存款利息高一倍的股票。
散户若能坚持以上五原则,可以做到胜多败少。
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
今天的金融危机就是货币刺激政策恶果的明证
【背景】美联储或再降息,中国降息风一传再传。
11月19日公布的美联储上次议息会议纪要显示,美联储对经济前景的展望进一步悲观。这加剧了市场对美联储12月进一步降息的猜测。当日,联邦基金利率期货的引申概率显示,在2008年12月16日举行的议息会议上,美联储维持1%利率不变的可能性为4.2%;降息25个基点的概率为12.3%;降息 50个基点的概率为44.7%;降息75个基点的概率为38.8%。
中国自4万亿财政刺激计划公布以来,降息预期更加浓厚。但对降息的作用,也一直有不同意见。有人主张应一次性大幅降息,有人主张降息不应操之过急。
面对当前的世界形势,美国的政策及其结果,或许可以给我们提供一丝借鉴。那么,美国降息会产生何种结果?
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为,货币刺激政策相比财政刺激政策来说,虽看似没有成本,但并不能刺激需求。今天的金融危机就是格林斯潘货币政策的后果,如今的货币刺激政策浪潮,很可能导致未来几年的高通货膨胀。
对刚刚结束的G20华盛顿峰会的结果表示失望。各国没能达成一个协调性的财政刺激计划,基本上还是各自为政。这使全球协作化解危机的最后希望也破灭了。因为,在全球化时代,财政刺激的利益可能会由于贸易而外溢。只有全球经济体互相协调,推出刺激计划,才可能发挥功效。所以,很少有国家单独实行刺激计划。不幸的是,G20峰会没有做到。
与此相对,货币政策不太会产生外溢效应,之所以大部分国家都依赖货币刺激政策,除外溢效应原因外,主要还是因为它们的财政赤字已经很大,不想再惹上增发债券的(政治)-抵制。
货币刺激乍一看似乎没有什么成本,但是,减息不能刺激需求,因为资产缩水损害了家庭或企业进行借贷的基础,它的作用仅仅是通过降低持有成本,使银行处理坏账变得容易,并减轻银行出售不良资产的压力,延长调整时间。
货币刺激的负面作用可能不会立即显现,但将来就会浮出水面。格林斯潘年代的那些泡沫正来自他对货币刺激的嗜好,后果就是今天惨遭蹂躏的全球经济。目前这股货币刺激政策的浪潮,很可能导致未来几年的通货膨胀。目前,资产缩水的通缩效应是暂时的,随着企业利润降低、削减生产,需求疲弱导致的通缩效应将不复存在。货币供给增加后,会暂时存在银行,但是,长期来看,这些货币很可能通过意想不到的渠道释放出来。因此,大宗商品进入下一轮涨价周期,或是工会要求工资上涨时,货币供给增长的通胀效应就会释放出来。
泡沫时代,许多家庭和企业都借贷过度。现在有三种方式解决问题:第一,用时间来逐渐化解,像日本;第二,企业破产,像20世纪30年代的美国;第三,承受高通胀,像20世纪20年代的德国。美国还没想清楚自己要走哪条路,但肯定不会是日本那条路。美国人不会坚持偿付房供,这不是美国人的文化。他们要么让大批家庭和企业破产,要么就是忍受高通胀。美联储正在避免大批破产的出现,不断救援银行和非金融企业。因此,美国正离高通胀越来越近。
如果用通胀解决问题,需要政策做到透明和公平。央行应该公告其发行货币量,并将货币均匀发给国民。货币增长会立即推高人们的通胀预期。商品、服务价格以及工资将快速上行,实际的债务负担也会随着通胀上升而减轻。
未来,中国和美国会有更多共同的利益。美国已无力独自撑起全球经济,如果它与中国联手则可以做到这点。遗憾的是,两个国家都没有这种想法。
11月19日公布的美联储上次议息会议纪要显示,美联储对经济前景的展望进一步悲观。这加剧了市场对美联储12月进一步降息的猜测。当日,联邦基金利率期货的引申概率显示,在2008年12月16日举行的议息会议上,美联储维持1%利率不变的可能性为4.2%;降息25个基点的概率为12.3%;降息 50个基点的概率为44.7%;降息75个基点的概率为38.8%。
中国自4万亿财政刺激计划公布以来,降息预期更加浓厚。但对降息的作用,也一直有不同意见。有人主张应一次性大幅降息,有人主张降息不应操之过急。
面对当前的世界形势,美国的政策及其结果,或许可以给我们提供一丝借鉴。那么,美国降息会产生何种结果?
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为,货币刺激政策相比财政刺激政策来说,虽看似没有成本,但并不能刺激需求。今天的金融危机就是格林斯潘货币政策的后果,如今的货币刺激政策浪潮,很可能导致未来几年的高通货膨胀。
对刚刚结束的G20华盛顿峰会的结果表示失望。各国没能达成一个协调性的财政刺激计划,基本上还是各自为政。这使全球协作化解危机的最后希望也破灭了。因为,在全球化时代,财政刺激的利益可能会由于贸易而外溢。只有全球经济体互相协调,推出刺激计划,才可能发挥功效。所以,很少有国家单独实行刺激计划。不幸的是,G20峰会没有做到。
与此相对,货币政策不太会产生外溢效应,之所以大部分国家都依赖货币刺激政策,除外溢效应原因外,主要还是因为它们的财政赤字已经很大,不想再惹上增发债券的(政治)-抵制。
货币刺激乍一看似乎没有什么成本,但是,减息不能刺激需求,因为资产缩水损害了家庭或企业进行借贷的基础,它的作用仅仅是通过降低持有成本,使银行处理坏账变得容易,并减轻银行出售不良资产的压力,延长调整时间。
货币刺激的负面作用可能不会立即显现,但将来就会浮出水面。格林斯潘年代的那些泡沫正来自他对货币刺激的嗜好,后果就是今天惨遭蹂躏的全球经济。目前这股货币刺激政策的浪潮,很可能导致未来几年的通货膨胀。目前,资产缩水的通缩效应是暂时的,随着企业利润降低、削减生产,需求疲弱导致的通缩效应将不复存在。货币供给增加后,会暂时存在银行,但是,长期来看,这些货币很可能通过意想不到的渠道释放出来。因此,大宗商品进入下一轮涨价周期,或是工会要求工资上涨时,货币供给增长的通胀效应就会释放出来。
泡沫时代,许多家庭和企业都借贷过度。现在有三种方式解决问题:第一,用时间来逐渐化解,像日本;第二,企业破产,像20世纪30年代的美国;第三,承受高通胀,像20世纪20年代的德国。美国还没想清楚自己要走哪条路,但肯定不会是日本那条路。美国人不会坚持偿付房供,这不是美国人的文化。他们要么让大批家庭和企业破产,要么就是忍受高通胀。美联储正在避免大批破产的出现,不断救援银行和非金融企业。因此,美国正离高通胀越来越近。
如果用通胀解决问题,需要政策做到透明和公平。央行应该公告其发行货币量,并将货币均匀发给国民。货币增长会立即推高人们的通胀预期。商品、服务价格以及工资将快速上行,实际的债务负担也会随着通胀上升而减轻。
未来,中国和美国会有更多共同的利益。美国已无力独自撑起全球经济,如果它与中国联手则可以做到这点。遗憾的是,两个国家都没有这种想法。
Monday, November 24, 2008
Strong Rebound Coming in Next 3 Months: Dr. Doom
The sheer amount of money governments are pumping into the financial system will eventually lead to a very strong rally in beaten-down assets, investor Marc Faber said on CNBC Friday.
But Faber also warned that if the markets remain depressed as liquidity increases the result could be a depression worse than in 1929.
By and large asset markets are "terribly oversold" now, while investors are going overboard into the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys, Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"What you could see in the next three months is a very strong rebound in asset markets, in equities, followed by a selloff in bonds and eventually a selloff in the dollar," he said.
Governments and central banks around the world are providing liquidity and that will eventually have an impact, Faber said.
And once the buying starts the rally is likely to be "stronger than people expect" given that financial institutions are sitting on so much cash, he added.
"I think the intervention by the government in the past and at the present time has created more volatility, not less, and so right now we have deflation, we have colossal deflation in asset prices," he said, noting that equities alone have lost $30 trillion globally.
But "I assure you if you throw enough money at the system, eventually you can reflate, especially in the United States," Faber added.
Statistically a rebound should happen, but if it doesn't "the air is out" and the world faces an economy "worse than the depression of '29 to '32," he said.
But Faber also warned that if the markets remain depressed as liquidity increases the result could be a depression worse than in 1929.
By and large asset markets are "terribly oversold" now, while investors are going overboard into the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys, Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"What you could see in the next three months is a very strong rebound in asset markets, in equities, followed by a selloff in bonds and eventually a selloff in the dollar," he said.
Governments and central banks around the world are providing liquidity and that will eventually have an impact, Faber said.
And once the buying starts the rally is likely to be "stronger than people expect" given that financial institutions are sitting on so much cash, he added.
"I think the intervention by the government in the past and at the present time has created more volatility, not less, and so right now we have deflation, we have colossal deflation in asset prices," he said, noting that equities alone have lost $30 trillion globally.
But "I assure you if you throw enough money at the system, eventually you can reflate, especially in the United States," Faber added.
Statistically a rebound should happen, but if it doesn't "the air is out" and the world faces an economy "worse than the depression of '29 to '32," he said.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
How to Value Equities - The Discounted Cash Flow (Dividends) way! - Example:SingPost
A reader asked us to write about valuing equities using the Discounted Cash Flow method sometime back.
There are many forms of DCF analysis and we will be looking at discounting dividends. This is most appropriate for valuing stable companies (for example in a mature industry) and those that have a consistent payout of dividends. We will be using SingPost as an example. See below for the yearly dividends they give out. We started from year 2005.
Based on the table above, it is logical to assume that they will be giving out at least S$0.0625 in dividends every year from 2009 and beyond. So here comes the DCF formula. Figure 1
The foundation of this formula is that the value of a asset ( stock in this case) is the present value of its expected future cash flows ( dividends in this case). In the above formula, it is taking the present value of all the dividends up to infinity years ahead and bringing it back to the present value, now. People then compare this present value now with the current stock price to see if its cheap or not. The dividends for a company could grow in time, therefore, the variable g takes into account the dividends growth.
SGDividends is going to derive a formula which will be easier than easy to use. The derivation is below in figure 2, but you can skip this part and jump to the final formula in Figure 3.
Figure 2
You can read up on the sum of infinity through thislink. From the above maths in figure 2, we derive the following formula in figure 3 from the equation in figure 1. Isn't it much easier to use now?
Figure 3
So let's put all this in practice, shall we?
For Singpost:
Dividends for current period ( or most recent period) , Do= S$0.0625.
As it is a mature industry, assuming dividends is growing slowly at a rate, g = 2%.
Let's assume your required rate of return, K = 6% ( We use 6% just to follow the rate from DBS preferential shares. It can be anything you wish because its YOUR required rate of return.)
Value of stock = 0.0625 / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.5625
Price currently as of 21 Nov 2008 as listed on SGX = $0.76.
Ok the formula should be Do (1+K) / (k-g).
So the value should be 1.65.
[0.0625(1+0.06)] / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.65625
Don't go rushing to buy this stock yet as we have said before there are many assumptions. Firstly, there is no guarantee that SingPost will continue giving out dividends or dividends will grow. There is no guarantee that SingPost will last forever. It is theoretical and you will realise that is not appropriate for all companies, since some companies don't give out dividends.
There are many forms of DCF analysis and we will be looking at discounting dividends. This is most appropriate for valuing stable companies (for example in a mature industry) and those that have a consistent payout of dividends. We will be using SingPost as an example. See below for the yearly dividends they give out. We started from year 2005.
Based on the table above, it is logical to assume that they will be giving out at least S$0.0625 in dividends every year from 2009 and beyond. So here comes the DCF formula. Figure 1
The foundation of this formula is that the value of a asset ( stock in this case) is the present value of its expected future cash flows ( dividends in this case). In the above formula, it is taking the present value of all the dividends up to infinity years ahead and bringing it back to the present value, now. People then compare this present value now with the current stock price to see if its cheap or not. The dividends for a company could grow in time, therefore, the variable g takes into account the dividends growth.
SGDividends is going to derive a formula which will be easier than easy to use. The derivation is below in figure 2, but you can skip this part and jump to the final formula in Figure 3.
Figure 2
You can read up on the sum of infinity through thislink. From the above maths in figure 2, we derive the following formula in figure 3 from the equation in figure 1. Isn't it much easier to use now?
Figure 3
So let's put all this in practice, shall we?
For Singpost:
Dividends for current period ( or most recent period) , Do= S$0.0625.
As it is a mature industry, assuming dividends is growing slowly at a rate, g = 2%.
Let's assume your required rate of return, K = 6% ( We use 6% just to follow the rate from DBS preferential shares. It can be anything you wish because its YOUR required rate of return.)
Value of stock = 0.0625 / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.5625
Price currently as of 21 Nov 2008 as listed on SGX = $0.76.
Ok the formula should be Do (1+K) / (k-g).
So the value should be 1.65.
[0.0625(1+0.06)] / ( 0.06 - 0.02) = $1.65625
Don't go rushing to buy this stock yet as we have said before there are many assumptions. Firstly, there is no guarantee that SingPost will continue giving out dividends or dividends will grow. There is no guarantee that SingPost will last forever. It is theoretical and you will realise that is not appropriate for all companies, since some companies don't give out dividends.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
穷人增加负债,富人增加资产
想要理财致富我们一定要先了解一些道理:
为什么穷人会穷?为什么富人会富?
穷人会穷是因为穷人只知道增加负债。富人会富是因为富人会知道增加资产。
什么是负债?怎样增加负债?
什么是资产?怎样增加资产?
要解答这些问题,我们就得从头讲起:
我们辛勤工作赚来的钱就是血汗钱。我们如何运用我们的血汗钱将决定我们的未来。是穷是富就是从这里开始。
每个人都有自己的生活方式,我们是通过我们的思想给自己定位:我们是谁?
如果我们是医生,我们怎么可以坐电单车?
如果我们是教员,我们怎么可以坐马赛地?
这就是我们的思想给自己的定位。
如果我们认为我们的社会地位高,我们的生活方式就得维持在高的层次。
如果我们认为我们只是个普通人,我们的生活方式就可维持在低的层次。
高层次的生活方式就需要比较高档的生活物质。例如:名贵车,名表,名牌服装等等。
要维持高层次的生活方式是需要很多钱的。
所以高薪人士总是觉得钱不够用,幸亏他们的信用比低薪人士好,借贷也就比较方便,久而久之就掉进了负债的深渊里去了。
信用卡刷一刷就是最典型的增加负债的方法。
负债是要还利息的,尤其是信用卡的利息更是惊人。
银行和LOAN SHARK并没什么分别,我们把我们一生中赚来的血汗钱都给了他们。
不管你的薪水有多高,只要你把赚来的血汗钱花在增加负债的项目上,你就注定要做穷人了。
旧车换新车就是一个增加负债的例子。
向银行贷款装修房子也是增加负债的例子。
负债增加,利息负担就重,能够用来增加资产的钱就越少。也就是这个理由薪水高的穷人比比皆是。
要致富我们的血汗钱就要用在增加资产方面。
什么是资产?
能够增值的东西就是资产。房屋,股票和定存都是资产。
怎样增加资产?
最容易的方法就是养成投资股票的习惯。把赚来的钱用来投资股票,使自己没有闲钱去做无谓的消费。
当然对于那些已经负债累累的高薪人士,还债已经喘不过气了,那有闲钱来投资股票?
期望通过增加资产来致富岂不是成为梦想?
要用怎样的理财方式才能消除负债?
其实唯一能够有效的解除负债是从改变自己本身的思想开始。
不要把自己定位得太高,这样才有机会降低自己的生活水平。
生活水平的降低才能够减少开支。开支减少负债额才会下降,才会消失。
如果月入五千,就生活得像月入三千。月入三千,就生活得像月入两千。
唯有这样子才能够消除债务,使自己重新踏上致富的大道。
不要指望中彩票来致富,那是不实际的。
为什么穷人会穷?为什么富人会富?
穷人会穷是因为穷人只知道增加负债。富人会富是因为富人会知道增加资产。
什么是负债?怎样增加负债?
什么是资产?怎样增加资产?
要解答这些问题,我们就得从头讲起:
我们辛勤工作赚来的钱就是血汗钱。我们如何运用我们的血汗钱将决定我们的未来。是穷是富就是从这里开始。
每个人都有自己的生活方式,我们是通过我们的思想给自己定位:我们是谁?
如果我们是医生,我们怎么可以坐电单车?
如果我们是教员,我们怎么可以坐马赛地?
这就是我们的思想给自己的定位。
如果我们认为我们的社会地位高,我们的生活方式就得维持在高的层次。
如果我们认为我们只是个普通人,我们的生活方式就可维持在低的层次。
高层次的生活方式就需要比较高档的生活物质。例如:名贵车,名表,名牌服装等等。
要维持高层次的生活方式是需要很多钱的。
所以高薪人士总是觉得钱不够用,幸亏他们的信用比低薪人士好,借贷也就比较方便,久而久之就掉进了负债的深渊里去了。
信用卡刷一刷就是最典型的增加负债的方法。
负债是要还利息的,尤其是信用卡的利息更是惊人。
银行和LOAN SHARK并没什么分别,我们把我们一生中赚来的血汗钱都给了他们。
不管你的薪水有多高,只要你把赚来的血汗钱花在增加负债的项目上,你就注定要做穷人了。
旧车换新车就是一个增加负债的例子。
向银行贷款装修房子也是增加负债的例子。
负债增加,利息负担就重,能够用来增加资产的钱就越少。也就是这个理由薪水高的穷人比比皆是。
要致富我们的血汗钱就要用在增加资产方面。
什么是资产?
能够增值的东西就是资产。房屋,股票和定存都是资产。
怎样增加资产?
最容易的方法就是养成投资股票的习惯。把赚来的钱用来投资股票,使自己没有闲钱去做无谓的消费。
当然对于那些已经负债累累的高薪人士,还债已经喘不过气了,那有闲钱来投资股票?
期望通过增加资产来致富岂不是成为梦想?
要用怎样的理财方式才能消除负债?
其实唯一能够有效的解除负债是从改变自己本身的思想开始。
不要把自己定位得太高,这样才有机会降低自己的生活水平。
生活水平的降低才能够减少开支。开支减少负债额才会下降,才会消失。
如果月入五千,就生活得像月入三千。月入三千,就生活得像月入两千。
唯有这样子才能够消除债务,使自己重新踏上致富的大道。
不要指望中彩票来致富,那是不实际的。
Monday, November 17, 2008
巴菲特:股市将在经济复苏前大涨
最近几个星期一定让许多投资者备感煎熬,一边是全球股市的阴晴不定,时而暴涨时而暴跌;一边是不断创出新低的股票和基金,而巴菲特两周前吹响的号角言犹在耳。
能不能抄底,底在哪,一个投资者如果计较于这些问题的真正答案,那几乎是个不可能完成的任务,"大部分投资者一生都沉迷于'猜顶和探底'的游戏,这也就是为什么大部分投资者终其一生都没有跨越财富自由的门槛"。
在普通投资者看来是 "抄底"的举动在巴菲特看来其实是在适当的时候"出手",他坦言抄底不是他强项。从历史上数次"抄底"来看,巴菲特是一个左侧交易者,他对于底部的判断有时要比市场早半年。
每每在"抄底"时机问题上,从1974年10月第一次预测股市到现在,巴老的回答始终朴素而诙谐,巴菲特在1974年接受《福布斯》采访时说:"我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业,这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上,投手扔来了47美元的通用股票、39美元的美国钢铁公司股票!没有惩罚,只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球,然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候,大迈一步将球击向空中。"那时,道琼斯指数只有580点。
今年10月17日的回答一样充满巴菲特式的幽默与智慧,"我无法预计股市的短期波动,对于股票在一个月或一年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。但有一种可能,即在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前,股市会上涨,而且可能是大涨。因此,如果你想等到知更鸟报春,那春天就快结束了。"
每到华尔街凄风惨雨的时候,人们总是盼望着听到巴菲特的声音,每到巴菲特慷慨的告诉大家是时候买股票了,人们又满腹狐疑,甚至还有些人暗地里为巴菲特计算着浮亏。
我们何必执着于巴菲特的预言是否能在一周或一个月里实现?如果这样巴菲特就不是股神了,而是占卜先生了。底部是一个区间,不是一个精准的点,且对于具体的每一个股票而言又情况各异。无数投资经历证明,一生只要把握住几个大的趋势,哪怕只是一两个,就会很不同了。
能不能抄底,底在哪,一个投资者如果计较于这些问题的真正答案,那几乎是个不可能完成的任务,"大部分投资者一生都沉迷于'猜顶和探底'的游戏,这也就是为什么大部分投资者终其一生都没有跨越财富自由的门槛"。
在普通投资者看来是 "抄底"的举动在巴菲特看来其实是在适当的时候"出手",他坦言抄底不是他强项。从历史上数次"抄底"来看,巴菲特是一个左侧交易者,他对于底部的判断有时要比市场早半年。
每每在"抄底"时机问题上,从1974年10月第一次预测股市到现在,巴老的回答始终朴素而诙谐,巴菲特在1974年接受《福布斯》采访时说:"我把投资业称为世界上最伟大的商业,这是因为你永远不必改变态度。你只需站在本垒上,投手扔来了47美元的通用股票、39美元的美国钢铁公司股票!没有惩罚,只有机会的丧失。你整日等待着你喜欢的投球,然后趁外场手打瞌睡的时候,大迈一步将球击向空中。"那时,道琼斯指数只有580点。
今年10月17日的回答一样充满巴菲特式的幽默与智慧,"我无法预计股市的短期波动,对于股票在一个月或一年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。但有一种可能,即在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前,股市会上涨,而且可能是大涨。因此,如果你想等到知更鸟报春,那春天就快结束了。"
每到华尔街凄风惨雨的时候,人们总是盼望着听到巴菲特的声音,每到巴菲特慷慨的告诉大家是时候买股票了,人们又满腹狐疑,甚至还有些人暗地里为巴菲特计算着浮亏。
我们何必执着于巴菲特的预言是否能在一周或一个月里实现?如果这样巴菲特就不是股神了,而是占卜先生了。底部是一个区间,不是一个精准的点,且对于具体的每一个股票而言又情况各异。无数投资经历证明,一生只要把握住几个大的趋势,哪怕只是一两个,就会很不同了。
真正的股神一直就是这样神
异常罕见的金融危机席卷全球。美股一片重挫暴跌。
悲观绝望中,不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而,最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元,击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨,重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的,而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间,这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值,资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观,总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手,投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后,股票价格仍然继续下跌,就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样,又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此,原来也是个看不准确具体大势的,原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作,人们确实能够发现,在其买进的八成以上的股票,都是主动买套型的操作,包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等,乃至,离我们最近的中国石油H股,它所带给巴菲特的,也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念,他成为了世界首富,
他的每一笔买进,是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行,而他每一次的卖出,都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的,就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候,人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜,以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字,以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们,或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧,他们长年累月地忙着著书立传,五湖四海招收学徒弟子,一边讲的是满口仁义道德,一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两,而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业,老人家还立下遗嘱,把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神,更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模,股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师,不要吝啬,我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人,更多的,我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛,读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音,顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
悲观绝望中,不少投资者遭遇极大损失。而,最新一期的美国财经杂志《福布斯》公布了“美国富豪400强榜”。“股神”沃伦·巴菲特个人净资产在33天内增加80亿美元,击败微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨,重新登上首富宝座。
让人惊奇的不是别的,而是在道指大幅杀跌调整期间,这位一直有着世界股神美誉的传奇人物再次如一颗闪亮的星星耀进世人的眼球。从8月29日至10月1日,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长巴菲特33天内个人净资产增加80亿美元至580亿美元。而盖茨个人净资产因为投资贬值,资产出现同期减少15亿美元至555亿美元。
市场悲观,总是少不了这位传奇股神的身影。
前不久巴菲特再次出手,投入超过50亿美金的资金买进。不过在他买进之后,股票价格仍然继续下跌,就和他当初以不高于A股发行价格抛售中国石油H股一样,又引来了不少人的嘲笑。他们的认为无非是一代世界级的股神也不过如此,原来也是个看不准确具体大势的,原来也是寻常的套牢族。是这样的。
假如你仔细研究这位世界股神的每次操作,人们确实能够发现,在其买进的八成以上的股票,都是主动买套型的操作,包括可口可乐、华盛顿邮报等,乃至,离我们最近的中国石油H股,它所带给巴菲特的,也是不小于两年的帐面投资亏损。
也恰恰是凭借着与大众不同的观念,他成为了世界首富,
他的每一笔买进,是在大众认为还要不断下跌的恐慌里进行,而他每一次的卖出,都是在大众认为还有非常可观的上涨空间的气氛里抛售的,就像中国石油。
这是一位传奇式的神奇老人。
当世界各地的股神们大肆吹嘘各自论调的时候,人们会很难看到他对自己的标榜,以致于他每年写给伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的公开信成为天下投资者争相阅读的文字,以致于不少人对能够与他进行一次晚宴机会不惜重金拍卖。
当世界各地的股神们,或者就干脆继续说说我们A股里被吹捧们一代股神的来讲吧,他们长年累月地忙着著书立传,五湖四海招收学徒弟子,一边讲的是满口仁义道德,一边又是不断向膜拜他们的人们收取银两,而巴菲特先生却已捐赠出700多亿美金给慈善事业,老人家还立下遗嘱,把自己过世后的财产无偿捐献给需要帮助的人们。
这是一位德艺双馨型的世界股神,更也是激励着一批批价值投资者不断学习成长的伟大偶像。
时代需要楷模,股市也同样需要旗帜性的灵魂大师,不要吝啬,我们应该将这个地位送给这位让世人尊敬的慈祥老人,更多的,我一直努力地想通过那双充满智慧的眼睛,读到能够为自己带来思想高度提升的动力和源泉。
那些嘲笑这位老人“过早买进”和“提前卖出”的声音,顿然如世间尘埃般渺小。
金融股票是不能沾的
中国的金融股票,是股市里面的大头,也是大盘主要的指标,被贴上了蓝筹的标签,很多害怕风险的人,均喜欢这些股票,持有这些股票的人,一般也是长线和价值投资的爱好者,但是本人认为这些股票在近几年内是不能沾的。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻,我们的几大银行上市,都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票,市值超过万亿,而他们取得股票的成本非常低,即使在股市这样低迷的今天,他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益,而这些持有股票的境外金融机构,在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重,均在破产的边缘挣扎,在这样的背景下,这些股票解禁,他们能够不疯狂抛售吗?而他们的三年锁定期,明年就会到期了,因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多,政府会救市买入,但是事情若果真如此,那就是国家的悲哀了,拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子,本身就很腌臜,而这样的做法,还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备,而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备,本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多,这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资,届时迅速变现是有困难的,而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月,大家想一下工行、中行何时上市,就该明白,这些金融股的小非抛售,会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期,因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济,利息高企,财务成本必将不可负担,就拿铁路投资为例,每年要有1000多亿的投资利息,这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润,因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略,而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率,降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入,所以以后的数年,金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题,我们的金融业也损失巨大,但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为,不允许提列大比例的损失准备金,所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上,真实性不够好,比国际上要滞后很多,随着危机的加剧,以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失,国际金融操作的损失,国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会,似乎要给金融股票带来利好,但是我认为无论是怎样的利好,都是诱多,这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金,但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说,都只能算作是诱饵,近几年的金融股票,本人认为是绝对不能沾的,因为这是赌博,你赌不赢庄家的,对于长线和价值投资的人,更是如此。
不能沾的理由首先是这些股票的小非问题非常严峻,我们的几大银行上市,都给了外国的战略投资者大量的股票,市值超过万亿,而他们取得股票的成本非常低,即使在股市这样低迷的今天,他们抛售股票也有翻倍以上的利益,而这些持有股票的境外金融机构,在本次金融危机下自身损失惨重,均在破产的边缘挣扎,在这样的背景下,这些股票解禁,他们能够不疯狂抛售吗?而他们的三年锁定期,明年就会到期了,因此这些股票的大跌应当能够看到。
我们的很多人可能会说到时候这些股票如果跌得太多,政府会救市买入,但是事情若果真如此,那就是国家的悲哀了,拿纳税人的钱去给国际金融大鳄填肚子,本身就很腌臜,而这样的做法,还会导致上万亿的资金挤兑我们的外汇储备,而中国的外汇储备只是账面上的储备,本次金融危机是损失了很多、套牢了很多,这些储备已经不是储备而是外汇投资,届时迅速变现是有困难的,而且一旦抛售就由套牢变成了彻底的损失。因此有谣言说本次政府扶植楼市等等到明年6月,大家想一下工行、中行何时上市,就该明白,这些金融股的小非抛售,会吸干市场内的各路资金的。
第二个问题就是中国必然要进入降息的周期,因为政府这样的大规模投资来刺激经济,利息高企,财务成本必将不可负担,就拿铁路投资为例,每年要有1000多亿的投资利息,这是铁路运营难于承担的。而降息就必然极大的降低银行的利润,因为我们的60%的银行资金是活期存款利息可以忽略,而银行贷款绝大多数都随央行利率进行浮动利率,降低年利息就等于降低银行的收入,所以以后的数年,金融业的收入会持续的下降。
最后就是危机中的金融业的损失问题,我们的金融业也损失巨大,但是我们的会计准则为了避免企业的避税行为,不允许提列大比例的损失准备金,所以这些损失只有到了实际发生时才能够反映到账面上,真实性不够好,比国际上要滞后很多,随着危机的加剧,以后我们包括房贷的各种贷款损失,国际金融操作的损失,国际债券投资的损失等等均会出现在我们金融业上市公司的报告里面。
而这周国际的金融峰会,似乎要给金融股票带来利好,但是我认为无论是怎样的利好,都是诱多,这金融股的拉升需要几百亿、上千亿的资金,但是这些钱对于上万亿的金融小非来说,都只能算作是诱饵,近几年的金融股票,本人认为是绝对不能沾的,因为这是赌博,你赌不赢庄家的,对于长线和价值投资的人,更是如此。
Saturday, November 15, 2008
华侨投资研究主管:股市明年下半年才会反弹
尽管海指已跌到相当低的水平,极不稳定的市场情绪料将继续把股市保持在目前的低水平,直到明年下半年才“柳暗花明”,并吸引买家进场。
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计,本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平,最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场,出现300至400点的回弹。
她说:“(本地股价)本益比已跌至8到9倍,与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱,各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场,海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了,也许最多再下跌100至150点,在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场,然后大力回弹300至400点。不过,在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市,她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”:第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上,如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等,构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股,包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等,其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”,则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票,如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”,也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出,美国联储局大幅减息,导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面,近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软,直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说:“届时,英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止,坏消息的出炉势头回稳,亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了,市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升,实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1%,但前提是美国经济不会再度出错,以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况,要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说:“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长,而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复,但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案,她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样,着重于投资在基础建设项目上,“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业,林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说:“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在,比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划,许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下,我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
华侨投资研究(OCBC Investment Research)主管李彩莲预计,本地股市在未来几季将继续徘徊在1700点左右水平,最早在明年第二季末才重新吸引投资者进场,出现300至400点的回弹。
她说:“(本地股价)本益比已跌至8到9倍,与18至19倍的历史水平相比已变得非常低。但市场信心仍十分脆弱,各国推出的振兴经济配套的效应也需一段时间才能真正渗入市场,海指将继续徘徊在目前水平。但估值已经非常便宜了,也许最多再下跌100至150点,在明年第三季时吸引投资者回场,然后大力回弹300至400点。不过,在那之前应该看不到市场有任何兴趣。”
针对如何抢攻股市,她建议投资者采取以防御为主的“三层式策略”:第一、把大部分投资集中在防御性、股息高的股票上,如新电信、第一通、SMRT、报业控股等,构成核心投资。第二、考虑跌情惨重、渐呈恢复迹象的金融及岸外与海事股,包括新交所、星展和大华银行、吉宝和胜科等,其他类股包括亚洲海峡资源(Straits Asia Resources)、华业集团(UOL)和来宝(Noble)集团。第三、一旦有多出来的“闲钱”,则放在超卖、但长期展望不错的股票,如泛联和麦达斯(MIDAS)控股。
亚洲货币到时也可能出现转捩点
明年下半年除了可能是我国股市“出头天”,也料将为亚洲货币“重见天日”的转捩点。
华侨银行货币策略师黄俊勇指出,美国联储局大幅减息,导致美国与其他国家的利差推高美元兑欧元、英镑及澳元等主要货币的汇率。另一方面,近日惨跌的亚洲货币料因出口受到全球经济衰退的冲击而继续走软,直到明年第二季末或第三季初。
他说:“届时,英、澳及欧盟等央行的减息动作应该停止,坏消息的出炉势头回稳,亚洲各国的出口下滑也得差不多了,市场对亚洲货币和股市的风险承担胃口将慢慢回升。”
尽管股票和货币市场在一年内可能回升,实体经济却需要更长的时间复苏。
华侨银行研究部主管林秀心预期我国经济明年增长1%,但前提是美国经济不会再度出错,以及我国政府明年推出“爆炸性”预算之下的最佳情况,要全面复苏也是更长远的事。
她说:“目前各国经济振兴配套不是为了提高增长,而是为经济衰退提供缓冲。我国经济最早在2010至2011年恢复,但整个重建对金融和银行系统的信心却需要更长的时间。”
对于来临的预算案,她认为我国经济的开放特质将使政府不能像中国推出4万亿经济配套一样,着重于投资在基础建设项目上,“因为会有太多的资金流出国外”。
针对政府将可如何在明年预算中帮助企业,林秀心认为重点在人力资源。
她说:“其实已有不少政策杠杆存在,比如就业入息补助(Workfare)或是重新培训计划,许多集中在培训员工技能、帮助他们从裁减人手的行业转换到仍在聘人的行业如IT。在目前经济不景的情况下,我认为前者有不少进一步加强的空间。”
Second Chance Properties
Co announced their 3Q08 results
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Downside - Revenue dn 10.33%, Profit dn 55.73%, Loss on investment securities valuation (equities) $624k.
Upside - Declaration of early dividend of 3 cents.
Question is why early divident payout? ..... could it be to entice warrant holder (expiry 30 May 08) to convert (10c at 1:1) early? At todays share price of 36.5c, it does not need this enticement.
Warrant conversion will be mildly dilutive - NAV will be 29.8c (from 30.1c) and after div payout, it will be about 27c.
Looking at the Balance sheet::
About 51.5% ($17.6m) of its current assets is in equities and only 1.2% ($418k) in cash. After divident payout, it would have used up all its cash and proceeds from warrant conversion.
For C. to raise cash, its easiet way is to liquidate some of its equities.......but under today's market cdtn, we can expect further writedowns and losses.
FY09 - If 3Q08 eps of 0.5c is going to be the norm for FY09, then Co. may not be able to meet their divvy forecast of 3.5c, unless they dig into their reserves.
From the above, my opinion is mgmt has over invested in the stock market (51.5% of current asset is definitely improportionate to its core business). It was good whilst it lasted.......but perhaps now they have to swallow the bitter pill.
Furthermore, Co recently announced that the daughter of the Chmn resigned her directorship and exec post of purchaser.....is there more to it than meets the eye?
I would advise forumers not to be enticed by the generous divvy declared (3c) cos the worst may yet to come.
Second Chance an undiscovered property play
ONE of the more interesting corporate developments over the past few weeks may have gone unnoticed by most investors - an offer to listed retail-cum-property group Second Chance Properties (SCP) to buy the company's entire property portfolio.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
While some companies might have jumped at the chance of a large cash windfall (something all shareholders would surely welcome because it would mean a big payout), what's interesting about it is that SCP on Wednesday announced that it had decided to reject the offer. The reason? It doesn't need the money!
'We have been accumulating properties since 1999 at attractive prices and have managed to build up a sizeable portfolio,' said SCP's chief executive Mohamed Salleh in an interview with BT. 'All our core businesses are doing well, our gearing is low and the offer, which was unsolicited in the first place, was not attractive so I didn't want to waste the company's time pursuing it.'
SCP on Oct 20 disclosed that it had been approached by an international property consulting firm on behalf of an unnamed client who was interested in buying SCP's entire property portfolio for an undisclosed sum.
As at June 30, SCP owned 42 properties valued at $118 million, of which 39 are spread throughout Singapore and three are in Kuala Lumpur.
The Singapore portfolio comprises mainly shop units in shopping malls in the Orchard Road area and in HDB hubs. Net rental per year is about $7.5 million.
'We have very low gearing and all our properties are tenanted with leases of 2-3 years that provide a steady rental stream,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh.
'Even with the downturn, we've found that demand for retail premises is high so there's no problem finding tenants. Of course if things get much worse, we may have to accept lower rentals, maybe 10 per cent. But for now, there is still plenty of demand.'
SCP this week reported a 22.4 per cent increase in its first quarter revenues to $19.2 million. Net profit was down 2.8 per cent to $5.4 million. The company has proposed an interim cash dividend of 2.5 cents per share and is also proposing a share buyback scheme.
'We want to do a buyback because our shares have fallen to a large discount to our NTA (net tangible assets) of 30.4 cents,' said Mr Mohamed Salleh. SCP's shares yesterday traded at 20 cents, a 34 per cent discount to NTA and indicating a dividend yield of 12 per cent.
If SCP presents an attractive investment story, why has its shares languished from lack of attention? One reason is a misplaced perception - despite the company's name - that it is mainly a retail company specialising in female Islamic apparel.
This, in turn, has led to an absence of adequate research coverage by broking houses which tend to view the firm as a retail play - with all the associated slow-growth connotations that accompany the sector.
Truth is, although SCP counts the retail sector as one of its core businesses, it should also be viewed as offering decent property exposure. In fact, it may be one of the local market's undiscovered - and possibly undervalued - property plays.
DIVIDEND STOCKS: Good for bear markets
DIVIDEND STOCKS may sound like a boring option to investors. But as uncertainty clouds over the stock market, they may prove useful after all.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Inflationary pressures, the credit crisis and a slowing economy could be what many deem to be a wake-up call for individuals to be cautious with their spending and finances. With such doubt looming over the market, dividend stocks are a sensible addition to one’s portfolio.
A SAFE BET
According to Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director of brokerage firm DMG & Partners Securities, dividend stocks tend to pay higher dividends relative to the market. “If you're talking about Asia for example, the dividend yield is usually about three, three-and-a-half per cent. So any stocks that basically pay higher than that benchmark will tend to be considered as higher dividend yield stocks," says Mr Yap.
Dividend yield basically provides a measure of how much return the shareholder will get and is computed by dividing the estimated payout that a listed company issues at the end of the year over the price with which an investor bought the shares.
The ability to withstand market shocks is what makes dividend stocks attractive. An economic slowdown spurs investors to deviate towards the defensive, and dividend stocks provide one way to hedge against risk. Mr Yap says such stocks pay stable dividends going forward and are not trading at very high price-to-earnings ratios.
He cites transport, telecommunications, utilities and power sectors as examples.
He says while they are generally synonymous with blue-chip companies, it does not apply in all cases. “Blue-chip companies are subject to the cyclicality of businesses. A very good example is the airline industry, which used to be a blue-chip sector and therefore, paying stable dividend.”
Corporate governance is another reason dividend stocks are usually associated with blue-chip companies. “They tend to be bigger companies and are actually entrenched in their businesses, some of them for as long as 50 years," says Mr Yap, pointing out F&N, Hongkong Land and Jardine Strategic as prime examples.
“The earnings that they get tend to be very stable and therefore, they are in the position to pay stable dividends for the next couple of years, going ahead.”
As dividend stocks are long-term investments, they will ride out periods of inflation. But investors should take note that this is not the case for the immediate term. “Unless a particular high paying dividend company is able to jack up its own sale price…and because of its higher earnings and ability to pay higher dividends, most of the stocks generally will not be able to protect against inflation risks,” says Mr Yap.
When it comes to building a passive income, dividend stocks can be considered for a long-term portfolio. Lee Wen Ching of OCBC Investment Research says they provide a regular income stream for passive investors.
“A high dividend yield stock would be more attractive because they can buy into a stock and accumulate dividends over the years,” says Miss Lee. She recommends a balanced portfolio of dividend stocks and growth stocks but maintains that portfolio management depends on risk appetite and investor goals.
Mr Yap agrees with this sentiment. “It is actually a good idea to have some dividend stocks in one’s portfolio,” he says, adding that while dividend stocks do yield more than government bonds or fixed deposits, their prices do not appreciate sharply.
“If you’re at a young age, where you’re only starting off to build your portfolio, then it is probably more advisable to have a lower level of dividend stocks in your portfolio, says Mr Yap. “Because what you would probably want is capital appreciation and therefore capital gains arising from stocks.”
THE LOWDOWN ON LOW-RISK INVESTMENTS
Low-risk bonds may offer secure returns too, but dividend stocks are considered to be more profitable. They do not offer capital appreciation but only returns in yield-to-maturity levels. Depending on the length of maturity, which range from two to 15 years, Singapore government bonds offer a yield of two-to-four per cent.
A high dividend yield is not indicative of growth.
Principal investments will also be held until the bonds have reached their maturity date. “If you have bought bonds at a discount to the maturity level or the nominal value, then that represents your only return,” says Mr Yap.
But he feels that while dividend stocks have higher share returns, they are a notch higher on the risk meter. As government bonds do not fluctuate, Miss Lee also considers them to be more secure than dividend stocks. “In a sense your principal is guaranteed.
It’s low-risk, low return,” says Miss Lee. “For bonds you won’t have to worry if your principal gets wiped out, but for stocks, there is no guarantee for your principal.”
However, Miss Lee mentions that shipping trusts have comparable dividend yields to those of dividend stocks.
“The trust structure unitises capital-intensive assets…into liquid and affordable units that aretraded on the Singapore Exchange,” says Miss Lee. And at such attractive yield levels, they give blue-chip dividend stocks a run for their money – according to OCBC Investment Research, their average distribution per unit (DPU) yields are about 11.7 per cent.
She also feels that such trusts are defensive plays and will safeguard against market volatility. “Companies are restricted to paying dividends out of their accounting profits,” remarks Miss Lee.
“Business trusts like the shipping trusts can and do pay distributions to investors out of operating cash flows. As a result, trusts typically have high payout ratios.” She also adds that due to long lease terms, they have a higher cash flow visibility.
At 34 cents, Second Chance Properties is yielding 10% in dividends. Its properties' tenants include those above.
But according to UOB Kay Hian’s November 2007 shipping sector report, shipping trusts are not without their risks – charterers could default on their payments and re-negotiate contracts due to an economic downturn and hence, “long-term contracts alone are generally insufficient to secure cash flows over a long period of time”.
LOOK AT MORE THAN JUST DIVIDEND YIELDS
Experts emphasise that aside from dividend yields, investors should research the company’s track record and earnings. “Whether a stock pays a high or low dividend depends on the stability of its business,” says Mr Yap.
“The stability of its business is interdependent on the cash flow that the business is able to generate,” continues Mr Yap, underlining that if a company’s fixed level of investments is very low, it could be due to its “mature phase of development” and thus, one cannot expect rapid growth. Mr Yap cites the utilities, power and petrochemical industries as examples of mature sectors that could possibly pay high dividends.
Johnny Kwon from SIAS (Securities Investors Association of Singapore) Research feels that analysing a stock’s dividend payout will reveal its quality. He says investors need to be aware that troubled stocks also bear high dividend yields.
“If the yield is very high due to market sentiment, like the current market uncertainty, then it might suggest the share price has been beaten down due to fear rather than due to poor stock quality,” notes Mr Kwon.
“Investors need to be sure of the quality of the underlying stocks, the consistency of the dividend and the going concern status of the company.”
Mr Yap feels that when it comes to stock picking, a stock’s total share returns is a more constructive way to gauge its value and sustainability.
“It is able to capture the steady dividend yield plus the possible capital appreciation in investment in a particular stock. So it is a more comprehensive measurement to say dividend yield alone,” says Mr Yap.
Second Chance Properties Ltd
Fundamentals
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
Volume 248.0K
50 Days Average Volume 128
100 Days Average Volume 117
200 Days Average Volume 146
Average Price 0.34
Technical
Relative Price Strength -54.02
Moving Average (50) 0.27
Moving Average (100) 0.32
Moving Average (300) 0.38
RSI (14) 44.27
Beta (Weekly) 0.69
Paid Up Capital * SGD 38.86 millions
Market Cap * SGD 71.28 millions (based on value of 0.2150 per share)
Performance (as at 30 June 2007)
Total Assets: -
Intangible Assets: -
Revenue: SGD 48.17
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: SGD 15.17
EPS (Basic) Inc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Inc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
EPS (Basic) Exc. Extraordinary Items: SGD 0.06
PE Exc. Extraordinary Items: 3.48
Net Income: SGD 18.38
Dividends - Common/Ordinary: SGD 8.80
Dividends - Total: SGD 8.80
Financial
Last Price 0.22
Previous Close 0.20
Week High 0.22
Week Low 0.18
Month High 0.24
Month Low 0.16
52 Weeks High 0.44
52 Weeks Low 0.16
Volume 248.0K
50 Days Average Volume 128
100 Days Average Volume 117
200 Days Average Volume 146
Average Price 0.34
Technical
Relative Price Strength -54.02
Moving Average (50) 0.27
Moving Average (100) 0.32
Moving Average (300) 0.38
RSI (14) 44.27
Beta (Weekly) 0.69
SECOND CHANCE PROPERTIES: Dividend yields of 8-9%
ONE OF the most enterprising and wealthiest Malay businessmen in Singapore is Mr Mohd Salleh Marican, 58, who has a net worth of around $125 million just based on his stake in listed companies.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
The bulk of that is his own and his family’s combined 70% holding (worth around $90 m) in Second Chance Properties, of which he is CEO.
His shareholding entitles him to a fat dividend every year as Second Chance (market capitalization: $126 million based on stock price of 38.5 cents recently) has been declaring near-fabulous dividends in recent years.
For the current year ending June 30, it has declared a 3-cent tax-exempt dividend, which equates to a yield of 7.8% based on a recent stock price of 38.5 cents. For the next financial year, Second Chance is set to pay out 3.5 cents (tax-exempt), or a yield of 9.1%.
And that’s one thing about the company: it states its dividend intentions in advance and has, so far, delivered the goods. "Barring any changes in circumstances, the directors intend to continue increasing the dividend payout in future years," according to its press release.
FY05
Revenue------$39.1m
Net profit----$10.0m
Dividend------2 ct
FY06
Revenue------$42.5m
Net profit----$10.5m
Dividend------2.4 ct
FY07
Revenue------$48.2m
Net profit----$18.4m
Dividend------2.7 ct
In a recent meeting with NextInsight, an analyst and a financial industry professional, Mr Mohd Salleh shared insights into his business which looks headed for another good year.
To start with, Second Chance has not only its office but its gold retail business operating out of Tanjong Katong Complex. Some years ago, the government announced that the complex, which is sited near the Paya Lebar MRT station, is earmarked for redevelopment.
To prepare for its relocation, possibly in 2012, Second Chance started buying shop units in City Plaza, which is just across the road. Recognising that other Tanjong Katong Complex tenants might relocate there, Second Chance accumulated more shop units in City Plaza.
It now owns 16 freehold shop units there valued at $34 million.
Future demand for City Plaza space could swell now that it has been announced that Malay Village nearby would also be redeveloped in 2011.
“There are 150 tenants in Tanjong Katong Complex and 40-50 in Malay Village. They depend on Malay customers and they have to be here in the Geylang area. Where can they go? Joo Chiat Complex is full,” reasoned Mr Mohd Salleh.
That’s why he thinks City Plaza will be in big demand, especially during the four to five years it takes for new developments to come up, he added.
After that, City Plaza’s rentals (now at $10-12 psf, compared to the $40-plus psf rates at suburban centers such as Tampines Square and Parkway Parade) will continue to be buoyed by the higher rates that new developments will charge.
“If the new shopping center charges $40 per sq foot, the rental at City Plaza of course won’t be $40 but at just $20, it will be double what the rate is now.”
Becoming a landlord
In April 1999, Second Chance started buying shop units in Housing Board estates when the property market was in a slump. It had $5.4 million raised from its IPO in 1997, and cashflow from its apparel and gold businesses. Significantly, it borrowed as much as it could from the banks.
Its move into the property arena stemmed from it being an apparel retailer and its experience of being a tenant, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
”We knew which properties to buy. We had the confidence.”
He explained that in addition, tenants with a captive pool of customers have a high tolerance for rental increases at their existing shops. Reasons: they would find it more expensive to relocate and fit-out a new shop, and they would be uncertain of building up a new pool of clients.
Being a landlord of retail space was attractive to Second Chance because, unlike residential properties, retail outlets are renovated or spruced up at the cost of the tenants, not the landlord.
As of the last FY annual report, Second Chance owned 18 units shop units in HDB estates such as Clementi and Toa Pyaoh. It also owns nine units in places such as Far East Plaza and Peninsula Plaza. In all, its investment and self-occupied properties were valued at $97 million last year.
Second Chance has been able to increase rental rates on its shops when leases were renewed.
On the whole, its net rental income (after property tax) is $7.6 million, or close to 10% yield based on the original purchase prices of its properties, said Mr Mohd Salleh.
Second Chance has been paring down its debt sharply, and its gearing now is a very low 0.32%.
Stock investor
Second Chance holds about $17.6 million in equities, after having sold $7.8 million in the first nine months of the current FY ending June 30 ’08.
Most of that is in Reits such as Suntec, Allco and MacArthur.
“Prices of physical properties have not corrected a lot but property counters have come down. Why buy a physical property when you can buy a Reit at 30-40% below NTA and providing a yield of as high as 10%?”
The market has de-rated them as some Reits may be facing difficulties in accessing credit to make acquisitions but “this is not going to be the case all the time,” said Mr Mohd Salleh.
As gold prices climb, sales of gold by Second Chance drops. But profit margins go up because the inventory was bought at lower costs, explained Mr Mohd Salleh.
The company does not take a position on where gold prices might be headed. “We don’t gamble. We buy the quantities we sold last week.”
Second Chance has a single gold retailing outlet and it operates at Tanjong Katong Complex, generating $22.5 million in sales in FY07 and $3.8 million pre-tax profit – a relatively stable business.
”Our competitive advantage is that we have the widest range of gold jewellery for Malay taste.”
Second Chance reckons it has about 40% of the Malay market.
It, however, does not plan to open another store in another part of Singapore, since “it will cannibalise part of our existing sales and it won’t make this kind of profit. It’s not worth it.”
In addition, gold is a capital-intensive business. Even for a small shop, Second Chance would need a few million dollars in cash, said Mr Mohd Salleh, adding that with that money he would rather buy properties for rental income.
What about the company’s focus on expanding its apparel business?
“That is a business that doesn’t need much capital to expand. It doesn’t cost much to start up, and if the business is good, you get back your money in two or three years. You can use the money to open more shops.”
All the company’s 29 First Lady apparel shops, which are located all over Malaysia, are profitable.
Of all its businesses, the apparel business is the most challenging as fashion and customer taste are ever changing. Property rental is, in comparison, stable with leases locked in for a long duration. Gold retailing, too, is stable.
Daughter’s resignation
Finally, when asked about the recent resignation of his daughter, Radiah, as an executive director of Second Chance, Mr Mohd Salleh said she was hoping to start a family. So there, nothing for investors to be unduly concerned about.
学习巴菲特不如走在巴菲特的身后
作为世界股神,巴菲特的言行总是格外引人注目。如近期巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资就举世瞩目。而上周五巴菲特发表在《纽约时报》上唱多的文章,时下更是成为投资者谈论的热门话题。面对巴菲特的做多唱多,要不要追随着巴菲特的脚步一起做多股市也就成了一些投资者必须面对的问题。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神,当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上,巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点,作为中国股市的投资者来说,巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程,已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度,如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了,可以肯定,站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为,巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特,作为一般的投资者,甚至就是国内的机构投资者(如投资基金),都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的,而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月,甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久,巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股;随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里,中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏,巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复,但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法,是一般的投资者所做不到的,投资基金面临着赚钱的压力,更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资,这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股,其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股,即便是两家公司破产了,巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好,巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内,以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来,一旦5年内股市行情走好,巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资,一般的投资者显然没有这种机会,而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且,巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买,使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说: “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力,我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多,并不等同于抄底,巴菲特自己也坦言: “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动,对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限,要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此,同样的投资,巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明,但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此,学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特,还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则,并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大,这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看,巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以,投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的,涨要涨过头,跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处,就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
巴菲特之所以能成为世界股神,当然有他成功之处与过人之处。实际上,巴菲特是一个典型的价值投资者。对于这一点,作为中国股市的投资者来说,巴菲特在中国石油H股上的投资过程,已经向我们作出了很好的注释。也正是从价值投资的角度,如今的巴菲特在美国股市上又开始做多唱多了,可以肯定,站在一个中长线的角度来看待巴菲特如今的做多行为,巴菲特最终又将是一个胜利者。
但这并不意味着那样学习巴菲特、跟随着巴菲特的脚步买进股票的投资者也会成为胜利者。实际上巴菲特是不可能复制的。学习巴菲特,作为一般的投资者,甚至就是国内的机构投资者(如投资基金),都是无法学习得到的。
巴菲特的投资是不计较短线的得失的,而这个短线也可能是几天、几个月,甚至有可能是几年。如巴菲特对中国石油H股的投资。2000年4月中国石油H股上市后不久,巴菲特就以1.10港元到1.20港元之间的价格买进11.09亿股中石油H股;随后又以1.61港元至1.67港元不等的价格增持8.58亿股中石油H股。但在随后的三年里,中国石油H股的股价多次在1.30港元到2.20港元之间出现起起伏伏,巴菲特的投资也处在盈利与亏损之间反反复复,但巴菲特却一直持有到了2007年的三季度才开始全面的抛售。这种在连续三年时间内都可以不赚钱甚至允许亏损的做法,是一般的投资者所做不到的,投资基金面临着赚钱的压力,更不可能做到。
巴菲特对高盛与通用电气的投资都是一种低风险的投资,这也是一般的投资者不可能做到的。因为巴菲特买进的都是优先股,其年收益率确保10%。而持有这种优先股,即便是两家公司破产了,巴菲特也有优先参与破产清算的资格。而一旦行情走好,巴菲特又可以在未来5年内的任意时间内,以当前约定的低于目前市场价的价格买进这两家公司的普通股。如此一来,一旦5年内股市行情走好,巴菲特又可以稳赚一笔无风险收益。这样的投资,一般的投资者显然没有这种机会,而在中国股市更是不存在这种机会。
而且,巴菲特庞大的资金量可以支持其在股票下跌的情况下越跌越买,使股票下跌成为巴菲特买进廉价筹码的机会。正如巴菲特自己所说: “ 如果股价价格继续保持吸引力,我的非伯克希尔净资产不久后将100%是美国证券 ” 。毕竟巴菲特的做多,并不等同于抄底,巴菲特自己也坦言: “ 我无法预计股市的短期波动,对于股票在1个月或1年内的涨跌我不敢妄言。 ” 但作为一般的投资者来说由于拥有的资金非常有限,要做到越跌越买根本是不可能的事情。因此,同样的投资,巴菲特肯定可以迎来股市的黎明,但一般的投资者很有可能就在股市黎明前的黑暗里倒下。
因此,学习巴菲特不是说学习就学习得到的。投资者与其机械地学习巴菲特,还不如走在巴菲特的身后寻找机会。
由于巴菲特信奉的是价值投资的原则,并且巴菲特拥有的资金量又很庞大,这就决定了巴菲特的买进与卖出都要把握一定的提前量。而且从巴菲特投资的历史来看,巴菲特对于顶部和底部的判断要比市场早数月至半年。所以,投资者大可在巴菲特买卖完成之后再作出自己的投资决定。毕竟市场是充满了投机性的,涨要涨过头,跌也要跌过头。而这 “ 涨过头 ” 与 “ 跌过头 ” 之处,就是投资者走在巴菲特身后的机会所在。
学习巴菲特
首先,我们来了解一下巴菲特每天看什么。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢?那还用问吗,当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火,大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了,痴迷到什么程度了呢?有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说:有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情,竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年,他们一天到晚上网,打游戏,几天几夜不上学,也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到,现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾,他们一天到晚看行情,甚至几分钟都要看一下行情,看不到行情就着急,股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大,因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说:现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票,大家把心都用在炒股上面,经理的大办公室那是大户室,一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户,尽量不出差,以免看不到行情,做不成股票。
我们大部分散户,只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金,就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金,他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢?
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天,当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金,基金经理是彼得·林奇,他专程去拜访巴菲特,想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现,巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街,而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈,人口只有40万人,相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是,巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多,但公司总部员工却少得多,只有11个员工。要知道,在世界500强企业排名上,巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员,打了招呼,然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看,房间不大,只有二十多平方米,左边是一排书架,上面有几本书,右边是几个文件柜,装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看,右看看,上看看,下看看,越看,越纳闷。"哎,巴菲特先生,你的办公室里怎么没有电脑,难道你不看行情吗?"巴菲特一笑说:"我从来不关心股价走势,没有必要关心,而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头:"真没想到,你管理着上千亿美元资金,竟然根本不用电脑,根本不看行情。"你肯定会问:那巴菲特要买卖股票时,他总得看股价吧?巴菲特当然看股价,只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情,他看准一只股票后,会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少,直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价,而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金,却一天到晚不看股票行情呢?
其实,看得越紧,反而表明你越不放心,越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着,肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着,肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着,肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价,原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票,放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票,包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢,进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低,即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少,只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值;而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险;其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票,期待它在下个星期就上涨,是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策,我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌,不担心经济情势的变化,不相信任何预测,不接受任何内幕消息,只注意两点:A买什么股票;B买入价格。
股民每天看的最多的是什么呢?那还用问吗,当然是看股价行情了。这两年来股市很火,大家看行情都看到痴迷的状态了,痴迷到什么程度了呢?有些人甚至痴迷到打架。我听一个证券营业部的经理说:有些股民为了抢一个电脑看行情,竟然打架。有很多人痴迷到染上股瘾。
现在全社会都在关注网瘾少年,他们一天到晚上网,打游戏,几天几夜不上学,也不回家。其实很多人都没有意识到,现在中国很多股民染上了股瘾,他们一天到晚看行情,甚至几分钟都要看一下行情,看不到行情就着急,股民的股瘾比网瘾少年还要大,因为担心看不到行情耽误挣钱啊。
有不少人股瘾大到严重影响工作。
我听一个大公司的总经理说:现在办公室的白领是人人上班看行情炒股票,大家把心都用在炒股上面,经理的大办公室那是大户室,一般职员的大厅那是散户间。甚至故意下午3点收盘前不见客户,尽量不出差,以免看不到行情,做不成股票。
我们大部分散户,只不过管理着几万几十万的小资金,就这样天天痴迷于看行情。那么78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几百几千亿美元的巨额资金,他一天到晚是如何看股票行情的呢?
这里有一个真实的故事。
1989年有一天,当时美国资产规模最大的基金公司是麦哲伦基金,基金经理是彼得·林奇,他专程去拜访巴菲特,想看看比他管理的资金规模更大业绩更好的股神巴菲特是怎样做投资的。
彼得林奇吃惊地发现,巴菲特的办公室不是在繁华的纽约华尔街,而是在美国中部的一个小城市奥马哈,人口只有40万人,相当于我们中国中部的一个小县城。
更让林奇想不到的是,巴菲特管理的资产规模比他大得多,但公司总部员工却少得多,只有11个员工。要知道,在世界500强企业排名上,巴菲特的公司规模比中国石化还要大。
彼得林奇跟巴菲特手下的11个工作人员,打了招呼,然后来到了巴菲特的办公室。推门一看,房间不大,只有二十多平方米,左边是一排书架,上面有几本书,右边是几个文件柜,装满了上市公司年报等资料。
彼得林奇左看看,右看看,上看看,下看看,越看,越纳闷。"哎,巴菲特先生,你的办公室里怎么没有电脑,难道你不看行情吗?"巴菲特一笑说:"我从来不关心股价走势,没有必要关心,而且也许还会妨碍我做出正确的选择。"林奇听了直摇头:"真没想到,你管理着上千亿美元资金,竟然根本不用电脑,根本不看行情。"你肯定会问:那巴菲特要买卖股票时,他总得看股价吧?巴菲特当然看股价,只不过他只是每天看报纸时顺便看看收盘价而已。
但他从来不会天天盯着行情,他看准一只股票后,会打电话告诉证券公司经纪人在什么价位以下买入多少,直到买到他想要的目标数量为止。
为什么我们这些资金量很少的散户天天看股价,而78岁的巴菲特管理着相当于几千亿美元的巨额资金,却一天到晚不看股票行情呢?
其实,看得越紧,反而表明你越不放心,越没把握。
你的小孩子需要时时看着,肯定是你不放心怕他贪玩不写作业。
你的老公需要时时看着,肯定是你不放心怕他移情别恋。
你的股票需要时看着,肯定是你不放心怕突然大跌深度套牢。
而巴菲特之所以能够一天到晚都不看股价,原因在于他买的是非常放心的股票,放心到可以持有几年甚至十几年几十年的好公司好股票,包括世界上最大的饮料生产企业可口可乐、世界上最大的剃须刀生产企业吉列公司、美国最有政治影响力的报纸华盛顿邮报公司、世界上最大的汽车保险公司GEICO公司。
巴菲特投资 “ 金 ” 定律
1、利用市场的愚蠢,进行有规律的投资。
2、买价决定报酬率的高低,即使是长线投资也是如此。
3、利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。
4、不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少,只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。
5、只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。
6、通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。
7、价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值;而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。
8、投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。
9、“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险;其次是可获得相对高的权益报率。
10、拥有一只股票,期待它在下个星期就上涨,是十分愚蠢的。
11、即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策,我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。
12、不理会股市的涨跌,不担心经济情势的变化,不相信任何预测,不接受任何内幕消息,只注意两点:A买什么股票;B买入价格。
Thursday, November 13, 2008
擇肥而噬 長線持有
長線投資是否賺錢的保證,「傳統智慧」提供肯定性答案,可是,別和股票談戀愛(遑論結婚)的說法亦有很多信徒,特別是大熊市的時候─當然反對者也大有人在,他們會說畢非德和他的「愛股」不是長廝守白頭偕老而大有斬獲嗎?此雖為「孤例」,卻足以推翻前說。筆者向來傾向後者,惟劍橋大學克萊爾書院本月初作出一項以40年為期的投資(將近半世紀,「長期」是沒問題的),令筆者有新的想法。
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院,因其捐款者狄.克萊爾夫人(Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360)而得名,她為英皇愛德華一世(1239-1307)的孫女,三嫁,當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後,只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」,「從婚姻市場淡出」,此後終生從事慈善事業,劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中,克萊爾無論從校舍、花園(草坪)及學生人數(去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名),都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營,克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊,不算富裕,其基金管理手法,則以保守穩健名於時(劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊,克萊爾並無損失),基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議(市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議),其資金分配是股票(主要是指數基金;長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道,見3月12日本欄的分析)佔七成、地產(主要是店舖)為三成,不過,隨市場變化,此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」,是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候,毅然「清倉」,賣掉全部持有股票相關投資(只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票)。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中,該基金每年錄得百分之七增長,表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健,看其投資顧問名單,識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯(A. Smithers),上世紀末一度大紅大紫;另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙(D. Swensen)……。
史密化斯(倫敦同名顧問公司主席)是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一,他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐,絕非「幸運之神眷顧」,而是他向來奉「杜賓q比率」(Tobin's q,筆者過去譯「杜賓的q」)為圭臬,令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂q比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比,引伸至股市,杜賓認為在「自有資金」(即投資者集體持有的資金)比率高的社會,股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估;假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財(如機器等生產工具)之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」,則公司可輕易從市場集資;購進股票的投資者,必會履行作為股東的權利,督促該投資計劃(集資的目的)完成……。基於這種分析,投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距,若股價較低,即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」,便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準,因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財,他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估,此外還有商譽的估值更難,而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯,在大牛市中援用「杜賓q比率」,雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺,「賺少好多」,但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議,向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊,引起投資界的注意;貸款數額雖是小數目,但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院,遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半,不少股價低於「重置成本」,因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機;它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃,向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09(如通脹率百分之十,利息為百分之11點09)。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算,至公元2048年,克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊,而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯,克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者,相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣,「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭(J. Cochrane)昨天(12日)在《紐約時報》論股市,認為那些「有現金在手」(less leveraged)、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者,現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法,和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資,最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後,投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資,但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」,投資者一無所有;如今一旦爆發戰爭,難免核彈擲來擲去,意味無論你投資什麼,在什麼市場投資,財富都會人間蒸發。因此,現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事!
成立於1326年的克萊爾書院,因其捐款者狄.克萊爾夫人(Lady Elizabeth de Clare, 1295-1360)而得名,她為英皇愛德華一世(1239-1307)的孫女,三嫁,當第三任丈夫羅渣公爵於1321年去世後,只有26歲的她宣布「梳起」,「從婚姻市場淡出」,此後終生從事慈善事業,劍橋有家剛成立的書院因獲她捐出「二筆地產」而為她改名。在劍大31家書院中,克萊爾無論從校舍、花園(草坪)及學生人數(去年本科及研究生只有七百餘名),都可稱為「精品店」。
經過數百年的經營,克萊爾的校產基金已累計至六千多萬鎊,不算富裕,其基金管理手法,則以保守穩健名於時(劍大各書院在冰島銀行危機上蝕一千一百萬鎊,克萊爾並無損失),基金管理委員會一年只開一次會議(市況劇烈波動時加開一次特別會議),其資金分配是股票(主要是指數基金;長期持有「指數基金」是「穩健賺錢」之道,見3月12日本欄的分析)佔七成、地產(主要是店舖)為三成,不過,隨市場變化,此比例會作彈性調整。甚少公開投資得失的克萊爾投資基金「闖出名堂」,是1999年9月在大市受科網狂漲帶動「旺得不得了」的時候,毅然「清倉」,賣掉全部持有股票相關投資(只餘約百分之二的未上市公司股票)。在科網泡沫爆破後的三年熊市中,該基金每年錄得百分之七增長,表現平穩。
克萊爾投資基金的投資策略如此保守穩健,看其投資顧問名單,識者便道「怪不得如此」。其首席顧問亦是校友的史密化斯(A. Smithers),上世紀末一度大紅大紫;另一位是同類基金中表現最出色的耶魯校產基金首席投資經理亦是校友的史雲仙(D. Swensen)……。
史密化斯(倫敦同名顧問公司主席)是少數在1999年9月間退出市場的投資專家之一,他在大跌市前全面獲利回吐,絕非「幸運之神眷顧」,而是他向來奉「杜賓q比率」(Tobin's q,筆者過去譯「杜賓的q」)為圭臬,令他較早預期大市將出狀況。所謂q比率是某種資產的市價對其生產成本的比,引伸至股市,杜賓認為在「自有資金」(即投資者集體持有的資金)比率高的社會,股價代表投資者對某公司的資本財價值所做的宏觀評估;假設某公司股票市價高於其欲獲得的資本財(如機器等生產工具)之購買價亦即所謂「重置成本」,則公司可輕易從市場集資;購進股票的投資者,必會履行作為股東的權利,督促該投資計劃(集資的目的)完成……。基於這種分析,投資者可評估公司的「重置成本」值與股價的差距,若股價較低,即公司的股票總市值低於「重置成本」,便可購入。這種理論當然不是放諸四海而皆準,因為除了機器之類價格比較穩定的資本財,他類資產的「重置成本」不易評估,此外還有商譽的估值更難,而事實上這對於服務行業並不適用。
非常明顯,在大牛市中援用「杜賓q比率」,雖然令投資者錯過終結前數月的狂旺,「賺少好多」,但亦使他們不必承受可能走避不及帶來虧損的風險。
克萊爾書院11月3日宣布和滙豐達成協議,向該行貸款一千五百萬鎊,引起投資界的注意;貸款數額雖是小數目,但貸款戶是向以保守見稱的劍大書院,遂令人嘖嘖稱奇。原來該書院的投資顧問委員會認為金融海嘯已令大部分股票市價減半,不少股價低於「重置成本」,因此是擇肥而噬的適當時機;它為此度出一項利用貸款的長線投資計劃,向滙豐貸款的條件是年期四十、年利息為通脹率加百分之1點09(如通脹率百分之十,利息為百分之11點09)。以平均通脹年率百分之三推算,至公元2048年,克萊爾書院應償還滙豐的本息約為七千五百萬鎊,而該投資委員會預期屆時還債後有利潤三千六百萬鎊。非常明顯,克萊爾書院的校產基金決策者,相信購進「好」股然後束諸高閣,「長期一定有利可圖」。芝加哥大學財務學教授柯克蘭(J. Cochrane)昨天(12日)在《紐約時報》論股市,認為那些「有現金在手」(less leveraged)、不會受衰退影響和對遠見有信心的投資者,現在可能是考慮吸納優質股的時候。柯克蘭的看法,和克萊爾校產基金如出一轍。
作數十年的長線投資,最大的風險是戰爭。在1900年前後,投資者視購進俄羅斯和中國的政府債券為穩健投資,但推翻滿清和俄羅斯革命令這些債券變為「燈罩」,投資者一無所有;如今一旦爆發戰爭,難免核彈擲來擲去,意味無論你投資什麼,在什麼市場投資,財富都會人間蒸發。因此,現今的長線投資者已不當戰爭是一回事!
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
你为何不能成为富翁?
哈佛大学第一堂经济学课只教两个概念,一是花钱要区分 “ 投资 ” 行为或 “ 消费 ” 行为;二是每月先储蓄30%的工资,剩下的才用于消费。
哈佛教出来的人,几乎都很富有,并非因为他们是名校出身,而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里,似乎还有些懵懂,再举几个例子,就会恍然大悟。
譬如:10年前,甲和乙是本科的同学,在社会工作5年后,不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房,乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天,甲的房子市值为60万元;乙的二手车,市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产,明显有了很大差异,但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为,钱其实没有花出去,只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为,钱是花出去的,给了别人,二手车用过10年后,几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起,A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券,几年后现金翻番;A买名牌皮鞋、西装,几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董,现在已经价值连城;而A爱好唱歌、跳舞,这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票,A说买那玩意干吗?人家买房子,A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时,A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时,A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ,你说A能成为富翁吗?
很多人认为,甲的收入为每月1.5万元,乙的收入为每月8000元,甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义,并不是你每月工资挣得多,而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ,剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍,照说美国人应比中国人富有,实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡,每个月花完钱后,会欠下不少债。在美国,理财规划师的理财讲座,时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样,一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍,他们自然比我们富有,其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道,在台湾,地铁单程是12元,上海是3元;在台湾,午饭平均要50元,上海是10元;在台湾租一套房6500元,上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾,假如每月挣15000元,减去房租6500元,交通费1000元,吃饭3000元,交税1500元,一点点娱乐2000元,每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师,每月工资8000元,减去交税1000元,减去房租1000元,交通费200元,吃饭1000元,娱乐1000元,每月剩下3800元。显而易见,到底谁更富有?
A没存过一分钱,结婚成家后,给老婆的也不是存款,而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条:储蓄30%的工资是硬指标,A算了算,工作到现在,至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
哈佛教出来的人,几乎都很富有,并非因为他们是名校出身,而是哈佛培养了他们的理财行为。每个人看到这里,似乎还有些懵懂,再举几个例子,就会恍然大悟。
譬如:10年前,甲和乙是本科的同学,在社会工作5年后,不约而同积蓄了30万元人民币。甲去通州购买了一套房,乙买了一辆 “ 奥迪 ” 。5年后的今天,甲的房子市值为60万元;乙的二手车,市值只有5万元。两人目前的资产,明显有了很大差异,但他们的收入都一样。甲花钱买房是 “ 投资 ” 行为,钱其实没有花出去,只是转移在了房子上。乙花钱买车是 “ 消费 ” 行为,钱是花出去的,给了别人,二手车用过10年后,几乎一文不值。
A正是那种只有 “ 消费 ” 没有 “ 投资 ” 的人。从开始工作算起,A花的钱都属于 “ 消费 ” 。人家买国库券,几年后现金翻番;A买名牌皮鞋、西装,几年后旧了扔了。人家集邮、收藏古董,现在已经价值连城;而A爱好唱歌、跳舞,这么多年进歌舞厅的费用少说也有几十万元。后来人家买股票,A说买那玩意干吗?人家买房子,A说有公房住就够了。人家没装电话时,A先装了电话。人家没买汽车时,A就先买了汽车。A一直认为 “ 花掉的钱才算是自己的 ” ,你说A能成为富翁吗?
很多人认为,甲的收入为每月1.5万元,乙的收入为每月8000元,甲应该比乙富有。这是错误的观念。
富有的定义,并不是你每月工资挣得多,而是你每月 “ 剩下多少 ” ,剩下的才是财富。美国人每月工资平均超过中国人两三倍,照说美国人应比中国人富有,实际情况却不是这样。一个美国人身上有几张信用卡,每个月花完钱后,会欠下不少债。在美国,理财规划师的理财讲座,时间多花在讲 “ 如何减少你的债务 ” 。
同样,一般人以为中国台湾地区居民工资平均高出大陆一倍,他们自然比我们富有,其实不然。去过台湾的朋友都知道,在台湾,地铁单程是12元,上海是3元;在台湾,午饭平均要50元,上海是10元;在台湾租一套房6500元,上海在市郊接合部租一套房1000元。在台湾,假如每月挣15000元,减去房租6500元,交通费1000元,吃饭3000元,交税1500元,一点点娱乐2000元,每月剩下1000元。而上海的工程师,每月工资8000元,减去交税1000元,减去房租1000元,交通费200元,吃饭1000元,娱乐1000元,每月剩下3800元。显而易见,到底谁更富有?
A没存过一分钱,结婚成家后,给老婆的也不是存款,而是家用开销钱。如果按照哈佛的教条:储蓄30%的工资是硬指标,A算了算,工作到现在,至少也有四五十万元的存款吧。这下该明白A为什么不能成为百万富翁了吧。
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