HEAVILY exposed to the global economy, Singapore will see an economic slowdown that will last not just one or two quarters, but 'several quarters', said Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Sunday.
In tandem, unemployment is expected to increase.
But he also sounded a note of optimism, saying with its strong fundamentals, Singapore will ride out the crisis - and emerge better than most countries.
Mr Tharman was addressing some 300 grassroots leaders and residents of Toa Payoh East, after a three-hour walkabout which saw him, among other things, opening an exercise corner for the elderly.
Accompanied by MPs from the Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC including Toa Payoh East MP Josephine Teo, it was his first ministerial walkabout since taking charge of the finance portfolio this year.
During the 80-minute dialogue that followed, residents asked 13 questions ranging from foreign talent to greater rewards for grandparent caregivers.
But the focus was on the darkening economic outlook amid increasingly gloomy news from the United States - and the world - on what some have termed 'the worst financial crisis since the 1930s'.
So grassroot leader Raymond Teo, 39, wanted Mr Tharman's opinion of the US$700 billion (S$1 trillion) package to bail out the US troubled financial institutions, and how it impacts Singapore.
The minister expressed relief the US Congress had supported the package as it is a step forward.
But it is 'not a full solution' in addressing the real malaise - shortage of capital in the banks, he noted. This, the new US President would have to work out when he takes over in Jan.
And because the problems are 'deep and extensive', it will take 'a year or two' before the world emerges from the crisis, he later told reporters.
Meanwhile, the crisis has moved into what he calls 'its second phase'.
'It's no longer just a financial crisis,' he said. 'It is now an economic crisis.'
Sunday, October 5, 2008
HIM's view
The market is very very sick! Despite the $700 bn package been announced there isn't a single bid of respect for a rally, instead a sell off was followed immediately after the announcement.
For the coming week, there should have more bad news coming out in Europe (the weekend meeting between the big four in Europe will probably provide nothing in concrete!) We believe there should be more shocking news coming from Europe financial industries before any concrete actions will be taken by the European Union bank, which again is behind the curve in taking action.
The 3rd quarter corporate results will also kick start next week, which will definitely provide more bad news. Plus more bad news from economic data, I simply do not see any chance of rebound from here! Technically, global indexes are all very negative and should be heading for another big sell off! I am expecting a continue selling in global stock markets and the selling may turn violent by end of the week, so do be careful!
Expect Dow Jones to continue coming down and may reach 9800 by end of the week. As for STI, it will break the recent low of 2239 and may be heading to 2200- 2180 level soon.
So, good luck to those who have short positions and be alert for action for those who have no positions.
If you are a short term trader, I am sure the next two weeks will be volatile and you should have plenty of opportunities to trade. As for medium term investors, my suggestion is to stay sideline and wait for a clearer picture.
The following are the support and resistance to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week.
For the coming week, there should have more bad news coming out in Europe (the weekend meeting between the big four in Europe will probably provide nothing in concrete!) We believe there should be more shocking news coming from Europe financial industries before any concrete actions will be taken by the European Union bank, which again is behind the curve in taking action.
The 3rd quarter corporate results will also kick start next week, which will definitely provide more bad news. Plus more bad news from economic data, I simply do not see any chance of rebound from here! Technically, global indexes are all very negative and should be heading for another big sell off! I am expecting a continue selling in global stock markets and the selling may turn violent by end of the week, so do be careful!
Expect Dow Jones to continue coming down and may reach 9800 by end of the week. As for STI, it will break the recent low of 2239 and may be heading to 2200- 2180 level soon.
So, good luck to those who have short positions and be alert for action for those who have no positions.
If you are a short term trader, I am sure the next two weeks will be volatile and you should have plenty of opportunities to trade. As for medium term investors, my suggestion is to stay sideline and wait for a clearer picture.
The following are the support and resistance to watch for Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei next week.
第三季经济增长预估10日公布
贸工部将在下个星期五（10月10日），发表今年第三季的国内生产总值(GDP)预估数字。公众可在当天上午8点上贸工部网站(www.mti.gov.sg)或统计局网站(www.singstat.gov.sg)或SPRInter网站(www.sprinter.gov.sg)查看。相信新加坡金融管理局到时也会发表半年一度的货币政策声明。
我国第二季经济增长2.1％，是五年来增长最缓慢的季度。政府较早前将全年增长预测调低到4至5％，但贸工部指出，全年实际增长可能会出现在新预测的较低部分。
金管局在8月份向24名经济师发出问卷，收集他们对我国经济前景的看法，得到20名经济师的回复，看法普遍较上一季调查更为不乐观。经济师再度调低对我国全年经济增长的预测，把增长率从较早时预测的5.5％调低到4.2％。花旗(Citi)新加坡经济师吉伟正则预测，我国今年全年的经济增长可能仅为2％左右。
我国第二季经济增长2.1％，是五年来增长最缓慢的季度。政府较早前将全年增长预测调低到4至5％，但贸工部指出，全年实际增长可能会出现在新预测的较低部分。
金管局在8月份向24名经济师发出问卷，收集他们对我国经济前景的看法，得到20名经济师的回复，看法普遍较上一季调查更为不乐观。经济师再度调低对我国全年经济增长的预测，把增长率从较早时预测的5.5％调低到4.2％。花旗(Citi)新加坡经济师吉伟正则预测，我国今年全年的经济增长可能仅为2％左右。
STI futures
STI futures can be bought and sold through SGX Derivatives Trading member broking companies, as well as your regular stockbrokers and/or remisiers licensed to market futures.
You may need to check with a few brokers before making your selection. Information that you should ask for includes: (1) the minimum capital required and how many contracts you will be allowed to trade with such capital; (2) broking commission; and (3) type of broking services provided.
Only when you are comfortable with your choice should you open an account.
For instance, the minimum capital required to open a futures account at Phillip Futures is $3,000.
For retail investors, the per transaction commission is around $12 for e-trading and $18 for call-in. Commissions may vary across the broking houses. The GST applies in both types of fees.
To open an account, you must complete two sets of documents and furnish the capital required before you start trading.
The first document is the Account Agreement Form for you to fill in your particulars, account information and operating procedures. The second is the Risk Disclosure Document required under the Securities and Futures Act.
To begin trading, you must deposit cash with your broker. Although SGX establishes the margin levels, your broker may have higher requirements than those set by the exchange.
You may need to check with a few brokers before making your selection. Information that you should ask for includes: (1) the minimum capital required and how many contracts you will be allowed to trade with such capital; (2) broking commission; and (3) type of broking services provided.
Only when you are comfortable with your choice should you open an account.
For instance, the minimum capital required to open a futures account at Phillip Futures is $3,000.
For retail investors, the per transaction commission is around $12 for e-trading and $18 for call-in. Commissions may vary across the broking houses. The GST applies in both types of fees.
To open an account, you must complete two sets of documents and furnish the capital required before you start trading.
The first document is the Account Agreement Form for you to fill in your particulars, account information and operating procedures. The second is the Risk Disclosure Document required under the Securities and Futures Act.
To begin trading, you must deposit cash with your broker. Although SGX establishes the margin levels, your broker may have higher requirements than those set by the exchange.
Bull or bear market, you can make money
STI Futures give retail investors a chance to profit even from a falling stock market
For the past months, many stock investors have been caught in a roller-coaster ride, no thanks to the current financial turmoil.
It is common to hear investors lamenting about how much they have sunk into the stock market, only to see the value of their stocks plummet.
How to get started
STI futures can be bought and sold through SGX Derivatives Trading member broking companies, as well as your regular stockbrokers and/or remisiers licensed to market futures.
You may need to check with a few brokers before making your selection. Information that you should ask for includes:
(1) the minimum capital required and how many contracts you will be allowed to trade with such capital;
(2) broking commission; and
(3) type of broking services provided.
If you have a stock portfolio and are bearish on where the market is heading, there are two things you can do: sell your stocks now, which may mean a loss, or just hope for the best.
Rather than do nothing, you may also want to check out the recently relaunched Straits Times Index (STI) Futures, which provide retail investors an opportunity to profit even from a falling market.
For those unfamiliar with the topic, the benchmark STI represents the performance of the top 30 stocks of the Singapore market, based on market capitalisation. They include Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Exchange (SGX), SingTel and the local banks.
STI Futures are contracts or agreements between buyers and sellers to buy or sell the STI portfolio of 30 stocks at an agreed price (futures price) to be settled at a specific future date.
STI Futures were launched in 2000 but not many retail investors were aware of this tool. With the relaunch last Thursday, there will be firms that provide ready buy and sell prices for STI Futures. This will lead to greater liquidity of the product.
It is a useful tool for investors who wish to take a position on where the local market is heading - that is, whether they believe that the STI will trend up or down - by buying or selling STI Futures contracts.
This means trading based on broad market movements instead of single stock movements. This reduces the need for individual stock selection; your risk is also diversified over 30 stocks instead of being pegged to a single stock.
At the same time, it can help to protect you against, or help you profit from, fluctuations in the stock market.
Here are some things you need to know about STI Futures:
What is the value of one STI Futures contract?
The value of each STI Futures contract is equal to $10 multiplied by the current index trading level.
For instance, if the index is trading at 2,300, holding a futures contract will be equivalent to investing $23,000 in the stock portfolio of the 30 listed companies.
This means that when a STI Futures contract is traded, the seller has, in essence, agreed to sell $23,000 and the buyer has agreed to buy $23,000 worth of stocks, as measured by the STI.
How are STI Futures transacted?
You are not required to cough up the full payment equivalent to the contract value. But the buyer or seller must each put up an initial margin deposit with the broker in order to secure the contract.
This margin, which is decided by SGX, is typically about 5 to 15 per cent of the contract value. The prevailing initial margin is $1,625 for one contract.
The margin essentially means that the STI Futures allow the investor to trade a portfolio of 30 stocks at a mere fraction - about 5 to 15 per cent - of its value.
At the end of each trading day and all following days that your position remains open, the contract value is "marked-to-market".
Your account is credited or debited based on that day's trading session. If your margin deposit falls below a certain maintenance level - currently set at $1,300 - your broker will request additional funds to replenish your trading account. If your position generates a profit, you may withdraw any excess funds from your account.
Margin levels prescribed by SGX are based on the movement of the underlying stock market as represented by the STI. The margin levels, therefore, will fluctuate depending on the historical and prevailing movement of the STI.
Do I need to own any of the stocks included in the STI in order to trade the futures contract?
You do not need to own any stock in order to trade the STI Futures. In stock index futures trading, you do not actually deliver or receive any stocks.
How can I profit from trading the STI Futures?
Like trading stocks, the point is to buy low, sell high.
The STI Futures offer the flexibility of buying and selling in whatever order you want.
That is, you can "buy first, sell later" or you can "sell first, buy later". If you think prices are going up, you may establish a "long" (buy) position, and if you think prices are going down, you may initiate a "short" (sell) position.
In addition, with the STI comprising a portfolio of 30 stocks, you can effectively participate in the broad market movements without the hassle of stock-picking. Each index point movement has a value of $10.
In other words, you gain $10 per index point rise if you have a long position or per index point fall for a short position.
Below are two trading scenarios:
Scenario A
Day 1: You are bullish about the Singapore stock market and decide to buy a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
The STI rises that day.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,425
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,425 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $250
You now have a paper profit of $250.
Margin account balance = $1,625 + $250 = $1,875
As you have not liquidated your contract, you have one lot of open position.
Day 2: Market rallies further to 2,438. You feel the price is good and decide to take profit, selling your September STI Futures contract at 2,438.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,438 - 2,425) x $10 = $130
Margin account balance = $1,875 + $130 = $2,005
Total net profit = $130 + $250 = $380
In this scenario, your bullish outlook holds and you ultimately make a net profit of $380 when you liquidate your position.
Scenario B
Day 1: You are bearish about the short-term prospects of the Singapore market and decide to sell a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
Contrary to your initial bearish view, the market turns bullish; the STI closes higher.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,435
Daily marked-to-market loss = (2,435 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $350
You now have a paper loss of $350.
Margin account balance = $1,625 - $350 = $1,275
Maintenance margin required (at $1,300 per lot) = $1,300
You have a margin call and must deposit additional funds now because your margin account balance of $1,275 is below the maintenance margin of $1,300.
You need to top up $350 to bring it back to the initial margin level of $1,625.
Day 2: The market shows a decline.
You want to cash in on this move by liquidating your position by buying a September STI Futures contract at 2,388.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,435 - 2,388) x $10 = $470
Total net profit = - $350 + $470 = $120
In this example, you ultimately make a net profit of $120 on Day 2 when you liquidate your position.
How long should I hold on to a position?
As stock markets can be volatile, you take advantage of price movements by getting in and out quickly. Depending on your personal preference and perspective, you may wish to adopt a short-term trading approach (taking a position for one day, one hour, or even just a few minutes); or medium-term approach (several days to several weeks); or long-term (months at a time).
What are the risks?
The initial margin deposit is relatively small compared to the contract's value. The transaction may lead to quick and substantial profits, but the reverse is true for losses too when prices do not move in the expected direction. Investors should also be mindful of margin calls if the margin account falls below the maintenance margin.
It is possible that you may lose more than the amount you have in your margin account under circumstances of extreme market movements. Investors are strongly advised by financial experts to use only excess funds that they can afford to invest.
For the past months, many stock investors have been caught in a roller-coaster ride, no thanks to the current financial turmoil.
It is common to hear investors lamenting about how much they have sunk into the stock market, only to see the value of their stocks plummet.
How to get started
STI futures can be bought and sold through SGX Derivatives Trading member broking companies, as well as your regular stockbrokers and/or remisiers licensed to market futures.
You may need to check with a few brokers before making your selection. Information that you should ask for includes:
(1) the minimum capital required and how many contracts you will be allowed to trade with such capital;
(2) broking commission; and
(3) type of broking services provided.
If you have a stock portfolio and are bearish on where the market is heading, there are two things you can do: sell your stocks now, which may mean a loss, or just hope for the best.
Rather than do nothing, you may also want to check out the recently relaunched Straits Times Index (STI) Futures, which provide retail investors an opportunity to profit even from a falling market.
For those unfamiliar with the topic, the benchmark STI represents the performance of the top 30 stocks of the Singapore market, based on market capitalisation. They include Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Exchange (SGX), SingTel and the local banks.
STI Futures are contracts or agreements between buyers and sellers to buy or sell the STI portfolio of 30 stocks at an agreed price (futures price) to be settled at a specific future date.
STI Futures were launched in 2000 but not many retail investors were aware of this tool. With the relaunch last Thursday, there will be firms that provide ready buy and sell prices for STI Futures. This will lead to greater liquidity of the product.
It is a useful tool for investors who wish to take a position on where the local market is heading - that is, whether they believe that the STI will trend up or down - by buying or selling STI Futures contracts.
This means trading based on broad market movements instead of single stock movements. This reduces the need for individual stock selection; your risk is also diversified over 30 stocks instead of being pegged to a single stock.
At the same time, it can help to protect you against, or help you profit from, fluctuations in the stock market.
Here are some things you need to know about STI Futures:
What is the value of one STI Futures contract?
The value of each STI Futures contract is equal to $10 multiplied by the current index trading level.
For instance, if the index is trading at 2,300, holding a futures contract will be equivalent to investing $23,000 in the stock portfolio of the 30 listed companies.
This means that when a STI Futures contract is traded, the seller has, in essence, agreed to sell $23,000 and the buyer has agreed to buy $23,000 worth of stocks, as measured by the STI.
How are STI Futures transacted?
You are not required to cough up the full payment equivalent to the contract value. But the buyer or seller must each put up an initial margin deposit with the broker in order to secure the contract.
This margin, which is decided by SGX, is typically about 5 to 15 per cent of the contract value. The prevailing initial margin is $1,625 for one contract.
The margin essentially means that the STI Futures allow the investor to trade a portfolio of 30 stocks at a mere fraction - about 5 to 15 per cent - of its value.
At the end of each trading day and all following days that your position remains open, the contract value is "marked-to-market".
Your account is credited or debited based on that day's trading session. If your margin deposit falls below a certain maintenance level - currently set at $1,300 - your broker will request additional funds to replenish your trading account. If your position generates a profit, you may withdraw any excess funds from your account.
Margin levels prescribed by SGX are based on the movement of the underlying stock market as represented by the STI. The margin levels, therefore, will fluctuate depending on the historical and prevailing movement of the STI.
Do I need to own any of the stocks included in the STI in order to trade the futures contract?
You do not need to own any stock in order to trade the STI Futures. In stock index futures trading, you do not actually deliver or receive any stocks.
How can I profit from trading the STI Futures?
Like trading stocks, the point is to buy low, sell high.
The STI Futures offer the flexibility of buying and selling in whatever order you want.
That is, you can "buy first, sell later" or you can "sell first, buy later". If you think prices are going up, you may establish a "long" (buy) position, and if you think prices are going down, you may initiate a "short" (sell) position.
In addition, with the STI comprising a portfolio of 30 stocks, you can effectively participate in the broad market movements without the hassle of stock-picking. Each index point movement has a value of $10.
In other words, you gain $10 per index point rise if you have a long position or per index point fall for a short position.
Below are two trading scenarios:
Scenario A
Day 1: You are bullish about the Singapore stock market and decide to buy a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
The STI rises that day.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,425
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,425 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $250
You now have a paper profit of $250.
Margin account balance = $1,625 + $250 = $1,875
As you have not liquidated your contract, you have one lot of open position.
Day 2: Market rallies further to 2,438. You feel the price is good and decide to take profit, selling your September STI Futures contract at 2,438.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,438 - 2,425) x $10 = $130
Margin account balance = $1,875 + $130 = $2,005
Total net profit = $130 + $250 = $380
In this scenario, your bullish outlook holds and you ultimately make a net profit of $380 when you liquidate your position.
Scenario B
Day 1: You are bearish about the short-term prospects of the Singapore market and decide to sell a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
Contrary to your initial bearish view, the market turns bullish; the STI closes higher.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,435
Daily marked-to-market loss = (2,435 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $350
You now have a paper loss of $350.
Margin account balance = $1,625 - $350 = $1,275
Maintenance margin required (at $1,300 per lot) = $1,300
You have a margin call and must deposit additional funds now because your margin account balance of $1,275 is below the maintenance margin of $1,300.
You need to top up $350 to bring it back to the initial margin level of $1,625.
Day 2: The market shows a decline.
You want to cash in on this move by liquidating your position by buying a September STI Futures contract at 2,388.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,435 - 2,388) x $10 = $470
Total net profit = - $350 + $470 = $120
In this example, you ultimately make a net profit of $120 on Day 2 when you liquidate your position.
How long should I hold on to a position?
As stock markets can be volatile, you take advantage of price movements by getting in and out quickly. Depending on your personal preference and perspective, you may wish to adopt a short-term trading approach (taking a position for one day, one hour, or even just a few minutes); or medium-term approach (several days to several weeks); or long-term (months at a time).
What are the risks?
The initial margin deposit is relatively small compared to the contract's value. The transaction may lead to quick and substantial profits, but the reverse is true for losses too when prices do not move in the expected direction. Investors should also be mindful of margin calls if the margin account falls below the maintenance margin.
It is possible that you may lose more than the amount you have in your margin account under circumstances of extreme market movements. Investors are strongly advised by financial experts to use only excess funds that they can afford to invest.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
闲言碎语巴菲特
老巴的核心，是尽可能的拥有能够提供FLOAT的公司控制权，然后把资金投入到自己能理解的，有特许经营权的长期稳定优秀的企业，长期持有。
获取 float 源的控制权，然后对这些 float 进行资本配置。
源源不断的 float 源头 + 一生二、二生三、三生万象的滚雪球能力。
巴菲特曾在接受媒体采访时说，他天生就是要做资本分配的。其实，人才正是巴菲特所取得的辉煌业绩中最重要的资本。对人才资本的管理，巴菲特也有自己一套独特的做法。他让公司的管理层放手经营，给他们以充分的信任，一切与公司具体经营管理相关的问题，他均不过问。但巴菲特又明察秋毫，对他的管理人取得的任何业绩，他都不会视而不见，并会在每年的致股东函中对他们通报表扬，毫不吝于言辞。
其实，巴菲特本人也是他管理的一部分。他知道自己能做什么，不能做什么，并懂得如何将自己的长处同他人的长处合理结合，以取得投资的最大成功。
（与人相处，发挥他人长处的能力非常强，依赖他人之长但又不失控制，因为资本总是处于控制地位的）
他明白自己不喜欢经常到世界各地出差、演讲、没完没了地开会、发展同客户和政府的关系；他经常在致股东函中谦虚地说，自己只会做资本分配这些简单的工作，具体如何成功运作一个公司，他还要依赖那些优秀管理人才。
（人有自知之明，知道自己的边界，知道如何用长避短）
“我惟一的任务就是给他们（管理层）加油，改善、强化公司文化，以及做资本分配的决定”
巴菲特在选股方面坚持一个重要理念，即投资股票一定要投资自己所熟悉的行业，并明白它们的真正价值。
巴菲特说，一个人要想投资长期成功，不在于你能力有多大，而在于你的边界要非常清晰，就是你知道你真正懂什么是企业，你真正看明白了哪个企业。你失败之所以失败，其实很大程度是你跨出了你的能力边界去做事，跨出了你熟悉的企业去投资，这个熟悉不是简单的熟悉，要长期研究，把它的产品、竞争对手、客户、竞争优势和各个方面研究非常透。
1.这句话非常经典，可以说很简单易懂，但也可能太深奥难懂。就象有些道理，年少时可能知道明白但并不真懂，也许在多年后真正经历了触动了才真正领悟。隔行如隔山，买猪肉的就根本不懂电脑程序员的活；有些你入行后不久就熟悉的业务、流程、规则，你可能觉得很简单，但也许你没入行前，这些东西对你就有如天书，而从投资方面来讲，也许就是你对该行业、企业的某个方面不熟悉、想当然，就导致你遭受巨大损失，因此，不只是巴菲特，包括罗杰斯等成功的投资大师都一再告诫，一定要知道自己在做着什么。
2.如果出现自己能力边界之外的行业或企业，但又认为该行业或企业有足够大的价值和吸引力，可以提高自己的能力，去深入研究该行业或企业，但一定要直到自己熟悉了，才能投资，至少熟悉之前，不能大量投资，只能试探性的投入，边实践边研究了解)
沃伦巴菲特："我们的注意力在公司的赚钱能力上，从现在开始的未来五年，十年的收益，如果我们认为它的价格跟赚钱能力比很值，我们就买，能够这样赚钱的公司是我们关注的，如果我们不了解，我们就不投资。我们不是说对每一种股票都一种观点，我们要确定我们选的是对的，但是对于不懂得我就不投资。如果有1000个股票，对999我都不知道，我只选那只我了解的。"
沃伦巴菲特："你必须知道你买的是什么。"
巴菲特坦言自己不懂A股，所以不投资。“熟悉”，更是一种安全边际
"如果我们不能在自己有信心的范围内找到需要的，我们不会扩大范围。我们只会等待。"
投资的首要条件是：做熟悉的事。
每天，巴菲特都在干些什么？也就是说，巴菲特的日常工作内容主要是什么？
然后，再看看我们的日常投资生活中，又都在干些什么？找黑马、探消息、猜大盘、讨论哪只涨得多和哪只跌得厉害......
巴菲特是这样概括他的日常工作："我的工作是阅读"。可见巴菲特对阅读是多么重视。
·巴菲特阅读最多的是企业的财务报告。"我阅读我所关注的公司年报，同时我也阅读它的竞争对手的年报，这些是我最主要的阅读材料"。
·巴菲特并不仅仅阅读上市公司年报这些公开披露信息，他从年报中发现感兴趣的公司后，会阅读非常多的相关书籍和资料，并且进行调查研究，寻找年报后面隐藏的真相："我看待上市公司信息披露(大部分是不公开的)的态度，与我看待冰山一样(大部分隐藏在水面以下)。"
巴菲特这样解释他如何把阅读和调研结合在一起的："你可以选择一些尽管你对其财务状况并非十分了解但你对其产品非常熟悉的公司。然后找到这家公司的大量年报，以及最近5到10年间所有关于这家公司的文章，深入钻研，让你自己沉浸于其中。当你读完这些材料之后，问问自己：我还有什么地方不知道却必须知道的东西？很多年前，我经常四处奔走，对这家公司的竞争对手、雇员等相关方面进行访谈。……我一直不停地打听询问有关情况。这是一个调查的过程，就像一个新闻记者采访那样。最后你想写出一个故事。一些公司故事容易写出来，但一些公司的故事很难写出来，我们在投资中寻找的是那些故事容易写出来的公司。"
记者："道听途说您一年看1万多份年报，真的么？"
沃伦巴菲特："读年报像其他人在读报纸一样，每年我都读成千上万，我不知道我读了多少，不过像中石油，我读了2002年4月的年报，而且又读了2003年的年报，然后我决定投资5亿给中石油，仅仅根据我读的年报，我没有见过管理层，也没有见过分析家的报告，但是非常通俗易懂，是很好的一个投资。"
记者："您最关心年报中的那些方面？"
沃伦巴菲特："学生总是问我这个问题，但是所有的年报都不同的，如果你要找个男人的话，什么样的吸引你，是有体育才能的，还是帅的，还是聪明的。所以同样看企业也有不同的方法，一个企业到另外一个企业，我看的是不同的东西。根本性的来说，我是看企业的价值。"
在采访中，巴菲特一再告诉记者，正确的投资就是寻找到价值被低估的公司，然后按合理的价格买入，而无论什么样的因素都不会影响公司内在价值。
沃伦巴菲特："我们不会因为外部宏观的影响改变我们的投资策略，总会有好的年和不好的年，那又怎么样，如果我找到一家很好的企业，美联储的主席说明年经济衰退要来了，我还是要买，对我们来说影响不大。"
股神如果不是买在最低卖在最高就是失败？
不笑不足以为道。
赵炳贤认为，巴菲特的战略成功有很重要的一点，就是他在每年年报中检讨自己，他为什么要检讨自己呢？他是要把自己置于一种很清醒的状态，给自己一种检讨的机制。我们知道在股票市场上，你赚钱赚多了，赚了一段时间，你就会放大自我，放大自己的判断力，放大自己的预测能力，然后就会吃亏，甚至会犯大错误。
(不要随意放大自己的能力边界)
人在成功的情况下是很难持续成功的，就是因为不能检讨自己，不能很清醒。巴菲特每年检讨自己，这是他年报一项重要的任务，而且是公开的检讨。所以这就可以使他一个人进行投资决策也可以保持很清醒的决策
估值是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。
1.指数升跌与投资决策无关．估值是唯一标准；
3.如果说卖掉的股票还在涨算是水平低下，那我们十几年来的水平就从没有一天高过，也似乎从没有太多提高；
4.我们在市场低迷时进场被套的次数与时间与市场高涨时踏空的次数与时间一样多，一样长；
记者："您认为中国有伟大的公司吗？"
沃伦巴菲特："是的，有很多好企业在中国，我们也拥有很多它们的股份，比如中石油，就像你知道得，这个公司市值第二大的，仅次于美孚石油，比通用电气还要高，我不知道今天是不是这样，几天前市值是这样的，你知道的，我看了很多家公司（老巴说他看了很多家A股公司了），但是，你们的股票市场发展非常强劲，可能现在有一些比较便宜的股票，也不像两年前那么便宜了，你们股票市场非常蓬勃，我通常是在人们对股票市场失去信心的时候购买，但是在中国的市场，人们总是很踊跃的购买，当然他们有很好的理由（人总喜欢自我肯定自我强化，估值标准可以不断改变提高甚至1天N变，总可为自己的所做列举出充分的理由，也许在未来的时候，才会后悔自己怎么会这么想，怎么找出或者相信这个这么笨的理由，就象祥林嫂说的“没想到春天也会有狼出现”），近年以来，我已经不像两年前那样，容易找到被低估的股票了。"
记者："A股已经有45%的股票市盈率已经超过100倍，人们很着迷于股市，您觉得这样的增幅对股市来说是健康的吗？"
沃伦巴菲特："是的，我建议要谨慎，任何时候，任何东西，有巨幅上涨的时候，人们就会被表象所迷惑，人们就会认为他们才干了两年就会赚那么多的钱（以为这是一种常态），我不知道中国股市的明后年是不是还会涨，但我知道价格越高越要加倍小心，不能掉以轻心，要更谨慎。"
获取 float 源的控制权，然后对这些 float 进行资本配置。
源源不断的 float 源头 + 一生二、二生三、三生万象的滚雪球能力。
巴菲特曾在接受媒体采访时说，他天生就是要做资本分配的。其实，人才正是巴菲特所取得的辉煌业绩中最重要的资本。对人才资本的管理，巴菲特也有自己一套独特的做法。他让公司的管理层放手经营，给他们以充分的信任，一切与公司具体经营管理相关的问题，他均不过问。但巴菲特又明察秋毫，对他的管理人取得的任何业绩，他都不会视而不见，并会在每年的致股东函中对他们通报表扬，毫不吝于言辞。
其实，巴菲特本人也是他管理的一部分。他知道自己能做什么，不能做什么，并懂得如何将自己的长处同他人的长处合理结合，以取得投资的最大成功。
（与人相处，发挥他人长处的能力非常强，依赖他人之长但又不失控制，因为资本总是处于控制地位的）
他明白自己不喜欢经常到世界各地出差、演讲、没完没了地开会、发展同客户和政府的关系；他经常在致股东函中谦虚地说，自己只会做资本分配这些简单的工作，具体如何成功运作一个公司，他还要依赖那些优秀管理人才。
（人有自知之明，知道自己的边界，知道如何用长避短）
“我惟一的任务就是给他们（管理层）加油，改善、强化公司文化，以及做资本分配的决定”
巴菲特在选股方面坚持一个重要理念，即投资股票一定要投资自己所熟悉的行业，并明白它们的真正价值。
巴菲特说，一个人要想投资长期成功，不在于你能力有多大，而在于你的边界要非常清晰，就是你知道你真正懂什么是企业，你真正看明白了哪个企业。你失败之所以失败，其实很大程度是你跨出了你的能力边界去做事，跨出了你熟悉的企业去投资，这个熟悉不是简单的熟悉，要长期研究，把它的产品、竞争对手、客户、竞争优势和各个方面研究非常透。
1.这句话非常经典，可以说很简单易懂，但也可能太深奥难懂。就象有些道理，年少时可能知道明白但并不真懂，也许在多年后真正经历了触动了才真正领悟。隔行如隔山，买猪肉的就根本不懂电脑程序员的活；有些你入行后不久就熟悉的业务、流程、规则，你可能觉得很简单，但也许你没入行前，这些东西对你就有如天书，而从投资方面来讲，也许就是你对该行业、企业的某个方面不熟悉、想当然，就导致你遭受巨大损失，因此，不只是巴菲特，包括罗杰斯等成功的投资大师都一再告诫，一定要知道自己在做着什么。
2.如果出现自己能力边界之外的行业或企业，但又认为该行业或企业有足够大的价值和吸引力，可以提高自己的能力，去深入研究该行业或企业，但一定要直到自己熟悉了，才能投资，至少熟悉之前，不能大量投资，只能试探性的投入，边实践边研究了解)
沃伦巴菲特："我们的注意力在公司的赚钱能力上，从现在开始的未来五年，十年的收益，如果我们认为它的价格跟赚钱能力比很值，我们就买，能够这样赚钱的公司是我们关注的，如果我们不了解，我们就不投资。我们不是说对每一种股票都一种观点，我们要确定我们选的是对的，但是对于不懂得我就不投资。如果有1000个股票，对999我都不知道，我只选那只我了解的。"
沃伦巴菲特："你必须知道你买的是什么。"
巴菲特坦言自己不懂A股，所以不投资。“熟悉”，更是一种安全边际
"如果我们不能在自己有信心的范围内找到需要的，我们不会扩大范围。我们只会等待。"
投资的首要条件是：做熟悉的事。
每天，巴菲特都在干些什么？也就是说，巴菲特的日常工作内容主要是什么？
然后，再看看我们的日常投资生活中，又都在干些什么？找黑马、探消息、猜大盘、讨论哪只涨得多和哪只跌得厉害......
巴菲特是这样概括他的日常工作："我的工作是阅读"。可见巴菲特对阅读是多么重视。
·巴菲特阅读最多的是企业的财务报告。"我阅读我所关注的公司年报，同时我也阅读它的竞争对手的年报，这些是我最主要的阅读材料"。
·巴菲特并不仅仅阅读上市公司年报这些公开披露信息，他从年报中发现感兴趣的公司后，会阅读非常多的相关书籍和资料，并且进行调查研究，寻找年报后面隐藏的真相："我看待上市公司信息披露(大部分是不公开的)的态度，与我看待冰山一样(大部分隐藏在水面以下)。"
巴菲特这样解释他如何把阅读和调研结合在一起的："你可以选择一些尽管你对其财务状况并非十分了解但你对其产品非常熟悉的公司。然后找到这家公司的大量年报，以及最近5到10年间所有关于这家公司的文章，深入钻研，让你自己沉浸于其中。当你读完这些材料之后，问问自己：我还有什么地方不知道却必须知道的东西？很多年前，我经常四处奔走，对这家公司的竞争对手、雇员等相关方面进行访谈。……我一直不停地打听询问有关情况。这是一个调查的过程，就像一个新闻记者采访那样。最后你想写出一个故事。一些公司故事容易写出来，但一些公司的故事很难写出来，我们在投资中寻找的是那些故事容易写出来的公司。"
记者："道听途说您一年看1万多份年报，真的么？"
沃伦巴菲特："读年报像其他人在读报纸一样，每年我都读成千上万，我不知道我读了多少，不过像中石油，我读了2002年4月的年报，而且又读了2003年的年报，然后我决定投资5亿给中石油，仅仅根据我读的年报，我没有见过管理层，也没有见过分析家的报告，但是非常通俗易懂，是很好的一个投资。"
记者："您最关心年报中的那些方面？"
沃伦巴菲特："学生总是问我这个问题，但是所有的年报都不同的，如果你要找个男人的话，什么样的吸引你，是有体育才能的，还是帅的，还是聪明的。所以同样看企业也有不同的方法，一个企业到另外一个企业，我看的是不同的东西。根本性的来说，我是看企业的价值。"
在采访中，巴菲特一再告诉记者，正确的投资就是寻找到价值被低估的公司，然后按合理的价格买入，而无论什么样的因素都不会影响公司内在价值。
沃伦巴菲特："我们不会因为外部宏观的影响改变我们的投资策略，总会有好的年和不好的年，那又怎么样，如果我找到一家很好的企业，美联储的主席说明年经济衰退要来了，我还是要买，对我们来说影响不大。"
股神如果不是买在最低卖在最高就是失败？
不笑不足以为道。
赵炳贤认为，巴菲特的战略成功有很重要的一点，就是他在每年年报中检讨自己，他为什么要检讨自己呢？他是要把自己置于一种很清醒的状态，给自己一种检讨的机制。我们知道在股票市场上，你赚钱赚多了，赚了一段时间，你就会放大自我，放大自己的判断力，放大自己的预测能力，然后就会吃亏，甚至会犯大错误。
(不要随意放大自己的能力边界)
人在成功的情况下是很难持续成功的，就是因为不能检讨自己，不能很清醒。巴菲特每年检讨自己，这是他年报一项重要的任务，而且是公开的检讨。所以这就可以使他一个人进行投资决策也可以保持很清醒的决策
估值是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。
1.指数升跌与投资决策无关．估值是唯一标准；
3.如果说卖掉的股票还在涨算是水平低下，那我们十几年来的水平就从没有一天高过，也似乎从没有太多提高；
4.我们在市场低迷时进场被套的次数与时间与市场高涨时踏空的次数与时间一样多，一样长；
记者："您认为中国有伟大的公司吗？"
沃伦巴菲特："是的，有很多好企业在中国，我们也拥有很多它们的股份，比如中石油，就像你知道得，这个公司市值第二大的，仅次于美孚石油，比通用电气还要高，我不知道今天是不是这样，几天前市值是这样的，你知道的，我看了很多家公司（老巴说他看了很多家A股公司了），但是，你们的股票市场发展非常强劲，可能现在有一些比较便宜的股票，也不像两年前那么便宜了，你们股票市场非常蓬勃，我通常是在人们对股票市场失去信心的时候购买，但是在中国的市场，人们总是很踊跃的购买，当然他们有很好的理由（人总喜欢自我肯定自我强化，估值标准可以不断改变提高甚至1天N变，总可为自己的所做列举出充分的理由，也许在未来的时候，才会后悔自己怎么会这么想，怎么找出或者相信这个这么笨的理由，就象祥林嫂说的“没想到春天也会有狼出现”），近年以来，我已经不像两年前那样，容易找到被低估的股票了。"
记者："A股已经有45%的股票市盈率已经超过100倍，人们很着迷于股市，您觉得这样的增幅对股市来说是健康的吗？"
沃伦巴菲特："是的，我建议要谨慎，任何时候，任何东西，有巨幅上涨的时候，人们就会被表象所迷惑，人们就会认为他们才干了两年就会赚那么多的钱（以为这是一种常态），我不知道中国股市的明后年是不是还会涨，但我知道价格越高越要加倍小心，不能掉以轻心，要更谨慎。"
长期价值投资的秘密
市场PE承受力：市场经常无效，悲观的时候只能承受较低PE，乐观的时候估值标准不断提高，可以承受较高的PE甚至市梦率，我们假设市场先生理性的时候给的PE为合理PE，而不理性的时候，实际PE就高于或低于合理PE。设想有一个市场PE承受力，合理值为1，乐观的时候高于1，悲观的时候小于1，个股的实际PE值=合理PE * 市场PE承受力。
牛久必熊，熊久必牛，牛熊往复交替，市场3-5年1轮回。牛熊的交替变化，也就是市场先生情绪乐观悲观的变化，也可以说是市场PE承受力的变化，虽然复杂，但也有期大概的周期。为了简化分析，我们假设这个变化是一个固定周期的正弦波。关于周期值，一些著名投资大师包括林园都指明：被严重低估的股票，股价都会在12个月内得到修正，无一例外。由此我们可以假设一个市场PE承受力的波动周期为4年，实际的情况可能长些或短些。最高值为1.6，最低为0.4，最高为最低的4倍，与A股市场高位60倍左右，低位15倍左右的情况大概类似。
市场PE承受力
在这里我们主要研究成长良好的企业，同时假设合理的PEG为1，也就是企业的增长率多少，合理PE就是多少倍。如30%增长给30倍合理PE。实际估值中，考虑的是3年复合增长率更合理。
我们研究的是：企业持续平稳增长（增长率稳定）、加速增长（增长率趋升）、加速增长后减速增长（增长率从高点回落）三种情况下，与市场PE承受力一起发生作用时，企业的股价变化情况。
稳定增长的情况，增长率为50%；2为增长率趋升的情况，3为增长率回落的情况。三种情况下，最后的各期（1-9期）增长率之和基本相等，所以最后第9期的EPS也基本相同。
相关数据
我们先来看看稳定增长情况下，股价是如何变化：
如果我们在时间点3或7处市场PE承受力低点买进，5或9的PE承受力高点出局，那么将有8倍的收益；而如果5处买进，7处卖出，将亏损大约45%；不管在3或5或7处买进，9处卖出，都可以获利，在3处买的获利大约是45倍，5处买入的获利大约是4倍，7处买入的获利大约是8倍。
结论：对于稳定增长企业，
(1)如果在市场比较低估的时候买进，持有1-2年以上时间，基本不会亏损，而且收益巨大，低风险高收益，只要企业持续稳定增长，持有时间越长收益越大。
(2)如果是在市场比较高估的时候买进，在接下来的熊市周期里将处于亏损状态，但只要持有时间超过3/4的PE承受力波动周期，就会盈利。相对于低估买进，高估时买进的风险高些，收益低些，但重要能长期持有可保证获利。
上面我们假设的稳定增长率是50%，如果增长率低一些或者高一些的情况会是如何？
稳定增长率为25%
稳定增长率为80%
上面两图是稳定增长率分别为25%和80%的情况。25%时，价格从高点回落的幅度比较大，大概有60%的跌幅；80%的情况下，价格最高点不是在PE承受力最大处（如图5中5处），而是PE承受力回落到合理值，也即时市场人气高点回落之后时（图5中6处），价格在图5中7处回落到最低点，回落幅度接近40%，但时间较短，只要坚持持有1/4多一点的PE承受力波动周期就可以解套。由此我们可以看出，企业的稳定增长率越高越好。在前面这些假设条件下，当增长率在150%时，股价不会出现回落的情况。但现实的实际情况却是，企业的增长率越高，就越难以持续。苏宁电器这几年每年100%的增长，使得其股价每年都在创新高，不管是在牛市还是熊市。
增长率趋升
可看到，增长率趋升时，即使在市场PE承受力高点时买进，其后中短期下跌的幅度和下跌时间都相对小和短。出现高估后，泡沫更容易更快地被挤掉。
我们再来看看增长率回落的情况：
增长率高位回落--增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应1
我们从图7可看到，当企业增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应时（随后市场PE承受力处于上升状态），如果股价高位买入，那么随后的股价回落幅度超过70%，而此后即使股价随市场PE承受力回升，也没有能够超越当时的高点。
我们再看看另外一种企业增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应时（随后市场PE承受力下降）的情况，如下图：
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应2
看到，4点处买进，随后6、7点创了新高，但在8、9点迅速回落，9点的低点甚至低于5点的低点。
再看看增长率高位与市场PE承受力高低点分别对应时的情况：
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力低点对应
当在市场悲观，低估时，而企业增长率又恰巧处于最高时买入，长期持有还可以保证不亏本，但其中从6到8点的价格回落幅度很大，属于增长率回落，PE回落，PE承受力回落的共振，也就是戴维斯双杀还要加上市场PE承受力的打击。
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力高点对应
如果4点时的高位买进，随后的戴维斯双杀+PE承受力回落打击，股价回落幅度接近65%，因为EPS的增长积累，随后8点处的PE承受力回升还能使得4点的买入解套，但如果继续持有，到9、10点的股价又再次大幅回落，长期投资却是亏损结局。
研究结果：好公司+好价格+长期持有。
好公司：要挑选能长期稳定增长（加速增长的更好）的企业，周期性越弱越好，持续稳定增长能够跨越足够长的时间。挑选好公司是非常考眼光的。象茅台这样的确定性极高的长期持续稳定增长企业，真是稀缺资源。
好价格：好价格可以使得投资低风险高收益，同时可以在即使选错了增长率减速的企业时，也能避免戴维斯双杀+PE承受力回落打击，降低风险。所以巴菲特十分强调安全边际的重要性。
长期持有：对于稳定或加速增长的企业，越是长期持有，收益越大。即使因为暂时高估，然后受PE承受力回落的打击而导致股价暂时下跌，但是下一次PE承受力回升时，价格会将涨得更厉害。
牛久必熊，熊久必牛，牛熊往复交替，市场3-5年1轮回。牛熊的交替变化，也就是市场先生情绪乐观悲观的变化，也可以说是市场PE承受力的变化，虽然复杂，但也有期大概的周期。为了简化分析，我们假设这个变化是一个固定周期的正弦波。关于周期值，一些著名投资大师包括林园都指明：被严重低估的股票，股价都会在12个月内得到修正，无一例外。由此我们可以假设一个市场PE承受力的波动周期为4年，实际的情况可能长些或短些。最高值为1.6，最低为0.4，最高为最低的4倍，与A股市场高位60倍左右，低位15倍左右的情况大概类似。
市场PE承受力
在这里我们主要研究成长良好的企业，同时假设合理的PEG为1，也就是企业的增长率多少，合理PE就是多少倍。如30%增长给30倍合理PE。实际估值中，考虑的是3年复合增长率更合理。
我们研究的是：企业持续平稳增长（增长率稳定）、加速增长（增长率趋升）、加速增长后减速增长（增长率从高点回落）三种情况下，与市场PE承受力一起发生作用时，企业的股价变化情况。
稳定增长的情况，增长率为50%；2为增长率趋升的情况，3为增长率回落的情况。三种情况下，最后的各期（1-9期）增长率之和基本相等，所以最后第9期的EPS也基本相同。
相关数据
我们先来看看稳定增长情况下，股价是如何变化：
如果我们在时间点3或7处市场PE承受力低点买进，5或9的PE承受力高点出局，那么将有8倍的收益；而如果5处买进，7处卖出，将亏损大约45%；不管在3或5或7处买进，9处卖出，都可以获利，在3处买的获利大约是45倍，5处买入的获利大约是4倍，7处买入的获利大约是8倍。
结论：对于稳定增长企业，
(1)如果在市场比较低估的时候买进，持有1-2年以上时间，基本不会亏损，而且收益巨大，低风险高收益，只要企业持续稳定增长，持有时间越长收益越大。
(2)如果是在市场比较高估的时候买进，在接下来的熊市周期里将处于亏损状态，但只要持有时间超过3/4的PE承受力波动周期，就会盈利。相对于低估买进，高估时买进的风险高些，收益低些，但重要能长期持有可保证获利。
上面我们假设的稳定增长率是50%，如果增长率低一些或者高一些的情况会是如何？
稳定增长率为25%
稳定增长率为80%
上面两图是稳定增长率分别为25%和80%的情况。25%时，价格从高点回落的幅度比较大，大概有60%的跌幅；80%的情况下，价格最高点不是在PE承受力最大处（如图5中5处），而是PE承受力回落到合理值，也即时市场人气高点回落之后时（图5中6处），价格在图5中7处回落到最低点，回落幅度接近40%，但时间较短，只要坚持持有1/4多一点的PE承受力波动周期就可以解套。由此我们可以看出，企业的稳定增长率越高越好。在前面这些假设条件下，当增长率在150%时，股价不会出现回落的情况。但现实的实际情况却是，企业的增长率越高，就越难以持续。苏宁电器这几年每年100%的增长，使得其股价每年都在创新高，不管是在牛市还是熊市。
增长率趋升
可看到，增长率趋升时，即使在市场PE承受力高点时买进，其后中短期下跌的幅度和下跌时间都相对小和短。出现高估后，泡沫更容易更快地被挤掉。
我们再来看看增长率回落的情况：
增长率高位回落--增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应1
我们从图7可看到，当企业增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应时（随后市场PE承受力处于上升状态），如果股价高位买入，那么随后的股价回落幅度超过70%，而此后即使股价随市场PE承受力回升，也没有能够超越当时的高点。
我们再看看另外一种企业增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应时（随后市场PE承受力下降）的情况，如下图：
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力中值对应2
看到，4点处买进，随后6、7点创了新高，但在8、9点迅速回落，9点的低点甚至低于5点的低点。
再看看增长率高位与市场PE承受力高低点分别对应时的情况：
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力低点对应
当在市场悲观，低估时，而企业增长率又恰巧处于最高时买入，长期持有还可以保证不亏本，但其中从6到8点的价格回落幅度很大，属于增长率回落，PE回落，PE承受力回落的共振，也就是戴维斯双杀还要加上市场PE承受力的打击。
增长率回落 - 增长率高位与市场PE承受力高点对应
如果4点时的高位买进，随后的戴维斯双杀+PE承受力回落打击，股价回落幅度接近65%，因为EPS的增长积累，随后8点处的PE承受力回升还能使得4点的买入解套，但如果继续持有，到9、10点的股价又再次大幅回落，长期投资却是亏损结局。
研究结果：好公司+好价格+长期持有。
好公司：要挑选能长期稳定增长（加速增长的更好）的企业，周期性越弱越好，持续稳定增长能够跨越足够长的时间。挑选好公司是非常考眼光的。象茅台这样的确定性极高的长期持续稳定增长企业，真是稀缺资源。
好价格：好价格可以使得投资低风险高收益，同时可以在即使选错了增长率减速的企业时，也能避免戴维斯双杀+PE承受力回落打击，降低风险。所以巴菲特十分强调安全边际的重要性。
长期持有：对于稳定或加速增长的企业，越是长期持有，收益越大。即使因为暂时高估，然后受PE承受力回落的打击而导致股价暂时下跌，但是下一次PE承受力回升时，价格会将涨得更厉害。
Hedge funds: Next in line?
Fate of these funds does matter - not just to the rich, but to all investors
NO ONE knows where the next domino will fall amid this financial crisis but the US$2 trillion (S$2.9 trillion) hedge fund industry looks as good a candidate as any.
There has been an exodus of money from the funds in recent weeks, raising fears the industry may collapse.
But no one is talking about a US$700 billion bailout for these guys. No one will be shedding tears if a run on even the biggest 'hedgie' kicks in.
Yet the unthinkable prospect of a bailout could still happen given that some hedge funds are so large, so interlocked with the financial system, that they cannot be allowed to fail.
It has become painfully clear that in this complex global economy, the fate of hedge funds matters, not just to the rich who can afford them, but to all investors.
These funds claim to deliver absolute returns in both rising and falling markets, using strategies like leverage unavailable to other investments. Pension funds, foundations and sovereign wealth funds, including those from Abu Dhabi and Singapore, have invested in hedgies.
But returns this year have averaged a negative 10 per cent, according to Hedge Fund Research. Doomsayers portend the demise of one-third or so of the 12,000 hedge funds worldwide as jittery investors demand their money back.
Hedge funds are facing investor redemptions of between 10 per cent and half of their funds, forcing them to dump shares, bonds and other securities to raise the cash, said the Financial Times.
Hedge funds account for an estimated 30 per cent of equity and bond trades in the US and beyond, according to consultancy Oxford Analytica. So the knock-on effect of their forced selling on financial markets may well be a knock-out.
Asia-focused hedge funds have fared worse than the rest. Many are based in Hong Kong and Singapore, which have been vying to be Asia's hedge fund hub.
Yet the talk of Armageddon has a familiar ring to industry veterans. Hedge funds have gone under then bounced back before. Recall the crises of 1968, 1972, 1986, 1987, 1998 and 2002, says fund manager Ramiz Hasan of Samena Capital.
In Singapore, where the industry of over 170 hedge funds is still relatively young, many hedgies earned their battle scars during the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998, which sparked a liquidity crisis. The implosion of Amaranth Investors in 2002 tested their mettle as well.
The resilient industry resurfaced each time. But things seem worse now, given the scale of the current financial crisis.
The shock bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers choked many hedge funds of their much-needed assets, which they had pledged to the prime broker in return for loans to make investment bets.
Then there are Collateral Fund Obligations (CFOs) - the hedge fund equivalent of the toxic assets that forced banks to write-down billions. As ratings agencies start downgrading CFOs, several hedge funds may find the value of these assets disappearing.
The ban on short-selling is also tying the hands of hedge funds, which rely on this tool to make big gains by exploiting market inefficiencies.
And then came Oct 1 - or D-Day as Reuters called it - the final date for clients to put in redemption requests to get their money back by the year-end.
Asia-focused funds arguably have the most to fear from redemptions, given that the HFRI Asia ex-Japan Index fell over 20 per cent for the eight months to the end of August - the worst performing index among those tracked by HFRI.
The freefall in overvalued China and India stocks this year was partly to blame for the poor performance.
But about 46 per cent of Asia-Pacific hedge funds are also largely focused on long/short equity strategies that made them more vulnerable to losses when Asian equity markets fell, said Mr Hasan.
Asia-Pacific hedge funds hold US$168 billion in assets - 5 per cent less than a year ago. Poor performance and investor exits caused 70 of the roughly 1,200 hedge funds in Asia to go belly-up in the year to August, up from 59 a year ago, said consultancy Eurekahedge.
Of the 70 shuttered funds, 10 were in Singapore. Interestingly, the failed funds averaged under US$50 million in size.
The minimum size for hedge funds to survive may well be US$100 million in the tough new world of turbulent markets and more regulations, which drive up compliance costs, said Mr Hasan.
One estimate is that funds should be US$500 million or more if they are to enjoy reasonable returns and cover management fees. Just 10 per cent of Asia-Pacific funds are of this size.
The current turmoil will likely lead to consolidation of the industry, with experts predicting the death of more than 1,100 funds this year. The ones that remain are likely to be mega funds with stronger balance sheets and the best fund managers. But the scale of the shake-up is reflected in the fact that even the largest players with over US$30 billion each in assets are wobbling.
Examples include Farallon Capital Management, which fell by 8 per cent; Renaissance Technologies, with a nearly 15 per cent decline; and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, with an 8 per cent drop, according to Absolute Return magazine.
If these funds were to collapse, would they warrant a bailout because they are so large and likely to have an impact on the financial system?
There is already a precedent of a hedge fund bailout - in 1998, LTCM was rescued by the private sector in a deal orchestrated by the New York Federal Exchange. And today's mega funds are far larger than LTCM.
But a bailout is not a likely scenario. The industry will pull through on its own, as it has done many times in the past.
Still, the current financial turmoil has prompted hedge fund managers to relook their business models and make changes. Those left standing when the dust settles on the corpses of the cowboy hedgies will have much bigger financial and risk management muscle, and be backed by a more diversified investor base.
After all, in an industry that thrives on the survival of the fittest, hedge funds live by the mantra that whatever does not kill you only makes you stronger.
NO ONE knows where the next domino will fall amid this financial crisis but the US$2 trillion (S$2.9 trillion) hedge fund industry looks as good a candidate as any.
There has been an exodus of money from the funds in recent weeks, raising fears the industry may collapse.
But no one is talking about a US$700 billion bailout for these guys. No one will be shedding tears if a run on even the biggest 'hedgie' kicks in.
Yet the unthinkable prospect of a bailout could still happen given that some hedge funds are so large, so interlocked with the financial system, that they cannot be allowed to fail.
It has become painfully clear that in this complex global economy, the fate of hedge funds matters, not just to the rich who can afford them, but to all investors.
These funds claim to deliver absolute returns in both rising and falling markets, using strategies like leverage unavailable to other investments. Pension funds, foundations and sovereign wealth funds, including those from Abu Dhabi and Singapore, have invested in hedgies.
But returns this year have averaged a negative 10 per cent, according to Hedge Fund Research. Doomsayers portend the demise of one-third or so of the 12,000 hedge funds worldwide as jittery investors demand their money back.
Hedge funds are facing investor redemptions of between 10 per cent and half of their funds, forcing them to dump shares, bonds and other securities to raise the cash, said the Financial Times.
Hedge funds account for an estimated 30 per cent of equity and bond trades in the US and beyond, according to consultancy Oxford Analytica. So the knock-on effect of their forced selling on financial markets may well be a knock-out.
Asia-focused hedge funds have fared worse than the rest. Many are based in Hong Kong and Singapore, which have been vying to be Asia's hedge fund hub.
Yet the talk of Armageddon has a familiar ring to industry veterans. Hedge funds have gone under then bounced back before. Recall the crises of 1968, 1972, 1986, 1987, 1998 and 2002, says fund manager Ramiz Hasan of Samena Capital.
In Singapore, where the industry of over 170 hedge funds is still relatively young, many hedgies earned their battle scars during the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998, which sparked a liquidity crisis. The implosion of Amaranth Investors in 2002 tested their mettle as well.
The resilient industry resurfaced each time. But things seem worse now, given the scale of the current financial crisis.
The shock bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers choked many hedge funds of their much-needed assets, which they had pledged to the prime broker in return for loans to make investment bets.
Then there are Collateral Fund Obligations (CFOs) - the hedge fund equivalent of the toxic assets that forced banks to write-down billions. As ratings agencies start downgrading CFOs, several hedge funds may find the value of these assets disappearing.
The ban on short-selling is also tying the hands of hedge funds, which rely on this tool to make big gains by exploiting market inefficiencies.
And then came Oct 1 - or D-Day as Reuters called it - the final date for clients to put in redemption requests to get their money back by the year-end.
Asia-focused funds arguably have the most to fear from redemptions, given that the HFRI Asia ex-Japan Index fell over 20 per cent for the eight months to the end of August - the worst performing index among those tracked by HFRI.
The freefall in overvalued China and India stocks this year was partly to blame for the poor performance.
But about 46 per cent of Asia-Pacific hedge funds are also largely focused on long/short equity strategies that made them more vulnerable to losses when Asian equity markets fell, said Mr Hasan.
Asia-Pacific hedge funds hold US$168 billion in assets - 5 per cent less than a year ago. Poor performance and investor exits caused 70 of the roughly 1,200 hedge funds in Asia to go belly-up in the year to August, up from 59 a year ago, said consultancy Eurekahedge.
Of the 70 shuttered funds, 10 were in Singapore. Interestingly, the failed funds averaged under US$50 million in size.
The minimum size for hedge funds to survive may well be US$100 million in the tough new world of turbulent markets and more regulations, which drive up compliance costs, said Mr Hasan.
One estimate is that funds should be US$500 million or more if they are to enjoy reasonable returns and cover management fees. Just 10 per cent of Asia-Pacific funds are of this size.
The current turmoil will likely lead to consolidation of the industry, with experts predicting the death of more than 1,100 funds this year. The ones that remain are likely to be mega funds with stronger balance sheets and the best fund managers. But the scale of the shake-up is reflected in the fact that even the largest players with over US$30 billion each in assets are wobbling.
Examples include Farallon Capital Management, which fell by 8 per cent; Renaissance Technologies, with a nearly 15 per cent decline; and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, with an 8 per cent drop, according to Absolute Return magazine.
If these funds were to collapse, would they warrant a bailout because they are so large and likely to have an impact on the financial system?
There is already a precedent of a hedge fund bailout - in 1998, LTCM was rescued by the private sector in a deal orchestrated by the New York Federal Exchange. And today's mega funds are far larger than LTCM.
But a bailout is not a likely scenario. The industry will pull through on its own, as it has done many times in the past.
Still, the current financial turmoil has prompted hedge fund managers to relook their business models and make changes. Those left standing when the dust settles on the corpses of the cowboy hedgies will have much bigger financial and risk management muscle, and be backed by a more diversified investor base.
After all, in an industry that thrives on the survival of the fittest, hedge funds live by the mantra that whatever does not kill you only makes you stronger.
Bailout 'not a panacea'
THE federal government's US$700 billion (S$1 trillion) bailout of the financial industry could help homebuilders and mortgage lenders, but is unlikely to bring fast relief to anybody trying to buy or sell a house anytime soon.
The Treasury Department's future purchases of sour mortgages and other securities from banks are designed to inject cash into the credit markets and restore confidence among shaken investors and consumers.
But that may only have a slow and gradual impact on home prices, record foreclosures and the 10-plus-month supply of unsold homes.
'What the bailout does is keeps a bunch of really bad future events from happening,' said Dr Scott Shane, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University.
'It doesn't make ...what's going on today much better.'
Many analysts say US home prices - down 20 per cent from their peak in July 2006 - still have further to fall, and must hit bottom before demand picks up. The long-awaited bottom in prices could be a year or more away.
'This is a step...to put the grease back into the machinery,' said Mr Gerard Cassidy, an analyst with RBC Captial Markets.
'This is not the panacea.'
The US economic picture continues to worsen. The Labour Department said on Friday employers cut payrolls by 159,000 in September, the largest loss in more than five years, while unemployment remained at 6.1 per cent. The cuts included 35,000 construction jobs.
Mr Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders, praised the plan, but said lawmakers need to do more.
The bailout package 'does not address the root problem of housing prices in its totality and Congress is going to have to look at doing something to help establish a floor in the housing market,' Mr Howard said.
It remains a difficult situation for builders and mortgage lenders alike because credit remains tight.
On Friday, the national average interest rate on a 30-year mortgages was 6.2 per cent, down from 6.3 per cent on Thursday and roughly equal to last week, according to financial publisher HSH Associates.
Though the bailout is attracting most of the attention, another change in the mortgage market announced this week is likely to have a more immediate and direct impact on consumers.
Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are rolling back fee increases imposed to shore up their finances this year.
Unlike the bailout, which likely will take months to play out, 'it's something that directly impacts mortgage lending right now,' said Mr Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication in Bethesda, Maryland.
Speaking just before President George W. Bush signed the rescue bill, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to act quickly but wouldn't say how the government would go about purchasing troubled assets.
For homeowners who are behind on their mortgages and facing foreclosure, the bailout bill offers little certainty. It directs the Treasury Department to 'maximise assistance for homeowners' and write up monthly progress reports, but says little else.
Senator Dick Durbin, the Senate's No. 2 Democrat, immediately called on the federal government to enact an aggressive loan modification plan in a letter to Secretary Paulson and other officials.
'The federal government now owns or has a controlling interest in a large percentage of the outstanding mortgages in America,' Mr Durbin wrote.
'With that control and influence comes responsibility.'
The Treasury Department's future purchases of sour mortgages and other securities from banks are designed to inject cash into the credit markets and restore confidence among shaken investors and consumers.
But that may only have a slow and gradual impact on home prices, record foreclosures and the 10-plus-month supply of unsold homes.
'What the bailout does is keeps a bunch of really bad future events from happening,' said Dr Scott Shane, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University.
'It doesn't make ...what's going on today much better.'
Many analysts say US home prices - down 20 per cent from their peak in July 2006 - still have further to fall, and must hit bottom before demand picks up. The long-awaited bottom in prices could be a year or more away.
'This is a step...to put the grease back into the machinery,' said Mr Gerard Cassidy, an analyst with RBC Captial Markets.
'This is not the panacea.'
The US economic picture continues to worsen. The Labour Department said on Friday employers cut payrolls by 159,000 in September, the largest loss in more than five years, while unemployment remained at 6.1 per cent. The cuts included 35,000 construction jobs.
Mr Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders, praised the plan, but said lawmakers need to do more.
The bailout package 'does not address the root problem of housing prices in its totality and Congress is going to have to look at doing something to help establish a floor in the housing market,' Mr Howard said.
It remains a difficult situation for builders and mortgage lenders alike because credit remains tight.
On Friday, the national average interest rate on a 30-year mortgages was 6.2 per cent, down from 6.3 per cent on Thursday and roughly equal to last week, according to financial publisher HSH Associates.
Though the bailout is attracting most of the attention, another change in the mortgage market announced this week is likely to have a more immediate and direct impact on consumers.
Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are rolling back fee increases imposed to shore up their finances this year.
Unlike the bailout, which likely will take months to play out, 'it's something that directly impacts mortgage lending right now,' said Mr Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication in Bethesda, Maryland.
Speaking just before President George W. Bush signed the rescue bill, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to act quickly but wouldn't say how the government would go about purchasing troubled assets.
For homeowners who are behind on their mortgages and facing foreclosure, the bailout bill offers little certainty. It directs the Treasury Department to 'maximise assistance for homeowners' and write up monthly progress reports, but says little else.
Senator Dick Durbin, the Senate's No. 2 Democrat, immediately called on the federal government to enact an aggressive loan modification plan in a letter to Secretary Paulson and other officials.
'The federal government now owns or has a controlling interest in a large percentage of the outstanding mortgages in America,' Mr Durbin wrote.
'With that control and influence comes responsibility.'
Friday, October 3, 2008
曾渊沧@股友通讯录 - 九月份
9 月29 日美国众议会否决美国政府提出的7000 亿美元救市方案。当日美股大跌，但本地股市却先大跌而后回稳。
7000 亿美元的救市方案在众议会表决失败后，白宫收回去稍做修改，先送到参议会表决，结果在10 月1 日晚上通过，那是亚洲10 月2 日的早上。但亚洲股市一开市全跌，很明显地对后市仍抱怀疑态度。
第一个担忧当然是担心众议院再次否决方案。
就算方案获得通过，问题还是很大。雷曼兄弟倒闭，全球通过银行购买雷曼兄弟发行的迷你债券的苦债主纷纷指责银行误导投资者，并表示不惜打官司。部分银行为保声誉，已决定与苦债主和解，由银行来赔偿苦债主的损失。因为是银行与苦债主私下的和解协议，我们不知道银行的赔偿比率有多大，但很明显地银行最终成了雷曼兄弟迷你债券的受害者。对银行来说，这是一个惨痛的教训，今后可能不敢再卖这些连自己也不清楚风险何在的衍生工具，衍生工具市场会出现萎缩，最终影响银行利润。
还有，7000 亿美元是不是足够？
这些由房地产按押贷款合约衍生出来的高度复杂的结构性产品与中国的毒牛奶有一个相同的性质，那就是高度扩散。今日，一场毒牛奶，除了可以直接生产出令婴孩肾结石的奶粉外，也使到朱古力、雪糕、牛油、饼干、面包……全部出了问题，扩散范围非常大。同样的，一个出了问题的按押贷款债券，混了其他的优质，非优质的各种金融产品后，也一样令人退避三舍，谁也不敢碰。扩散范围之大，总不良资产是数十万亿美元之数。布斯的7000 亿美元如何足够救市？
整个问题的最终关键是美国的房地产价格是否能止跌回升？
因为目前一切的问题就是始于房地产按押贷款债券。如果房地产价格继续下跌，这个问题也永无解决之道。能真正解决问题的唯一方法就是全美国房地产价格止跌回升。
从乐观的角度来看，美国联邦储备局最终是会再减息以刺激美国房地产价格。什么时候出手？目前美国债券市场利率走势已经显示美国投资者预期减息会发生于这个月，在美国总统选举投票前减息，希望可以刺激经济，协助共和党候选人麦凯恩当选。
目前的市场依然是非常不稳定，除非你是一名赌徒，否则最好是当个旁观者，身边现金多的可以适量增持一点点股票。
7000 亿美元的救市方案在众议会表决失败后，白宫收回去稍做修改，先送到参议会表决，结果在10 月1 日晚上通过，那是亚洲10 月2 日的早上。但亚洲股市一开市全跌，很明显地对后市仍抱怀疑态度。
第一个担忧当然是担心众议院再次否决方案。
就算方案获得通过，问题还是很大。雷曼兄弟倒闭，全球通过银行购买雷曼兄弟发行的迷你债券的苦债主纷纷指责银行误导投资者，并表示不惜打官司。部分银行为保声誉，已决定与苦债主和解，由银行来赔偿苦债主的损失。因为是银行与苦债主私下的和解协议，我们不知道银行的赔偿比率有多大，但很明显地银行最终成了雷曼兄弟迷你债券的受害者。对银行来说，这是一个惨痛的教训，今后可能不敢再卖这些连自己也不清楚风险何在的衍生工具，衍生工具市场会出现萎缩，最终影响银行利润。
还有，7000 亿美元是不是足够？
这些由房地产按押贷款合约衍生出来的高度复杂的结构性产品与中国的毒牛奶有一个相同的性质，那就是高度扩散。今日，一场毒牛奶，除了可以直接生产出令婴孩肾结石的奶粉外，也使到朱古力、雪糕、牛油、饼干、面包……全部出了问题，扩散范围非常大。同样的，一个出了问题的按押贷款债券，混了其他的优质，非优质的各种金融产品后，也一样令人退避三舍，谁也不敢碰。扩散范围之大，总不良资产是数十万亿美元之数。布斯的7000 亿美元如何足够救市？
整个问题的最终关键是美国的房地产价格是否能止跌回升？
因为目前一切的问题就是始于房地产按押贷款债券。如果房地产价格继续下跌，这个问题也永无解决之道。能真正解决问题的唯一方法就是全美国房地产价格止跌回升。
从乐观的角度来看，美国联邦储备局最终是会再减息以刺激美国房地产价格。什么时候出手？目前美国债券市场利率走势已经显示美国投资者预期减息会发生于这个月，在美国总统选举投票前减息，希望可以刺激经济，协助共和党候选人麦凯恩当选。
目前的市场依然是非常不稳定，除非你是一名赌徒，否则最好是当个旁观者，身边现金多的可以适量增持一点点股票。
The MRT guide to home prices
Buyers increasingly keen on units near stations, which can command up to a 20% premium
HOME seeker Wan Kum Wai is hunting for a flat that is well-located - specifically, within walking distance of an MRT station.
For this convenience, the multimedia designer and his wife Jessie are willing to pay 10 to 20 per cent more than they would for a home a few bus stops away from a station.
‘We don’t drive, and the cost of living is running high,’ he said. ‘We don’t mind paying more because we think this will help us save on transportation costs and other expenses in the long run.’
In an era of sky-high petrol prices, multiplying Electronic Road Pricing gantries and increasing worries over environmental degradation, the all-important ‘location, location, location’ element of a home purchase has taken on a new slant.
While the classic prime districts of 9, 10, 11 are still sought after, home buyers are also increasingly keen on properties near MRT stations.
Apart from non-drivers, MRT-accessible homes also attract buyers with school-going children as well as investors who want to rent the units to expatriates, many of whom rely heavily on public transport, say property agents.
Ms Mylene Kwan, a PropNex agent who is helping Mr Wan find a home, said some of her clients have only one priority: to be near an MRT station.
‘Many of them don’t drive, so it’s very important to these buyers,’ she said.
But such proximity comes at a price.
Ms Kwan estimated that HDB flats with this privilege have their valuations alone jacked up by at least $20,000 or $30,000, and buyers often pay even more in cash on top of that.
The most popular HDB flats near MRT stations are those close to town, such as in the Tiong Bahru, Redhill and Queenstown areas, she said.
But even in the suburbs, a nearby station can give a big boost to prices.
In Woodlands, owners of flats near the MRT station are asking $40,000 to $50,000 above valuation just because of the location, said Ms Rohaizah Ramjan, another PropNex agent.
Whenever these flats come on the market, they get snapped up within two or three weeks, she added. For ‘normal ones’ further from the station, it can take a few months for a sale to be closed.
‘Flats near MRT stations are harder to come by, because owners are comfortable there and don’t want to sell,’ she said. ‘So if a buyer has the budget and they see a well-located flat for sale, they just grab.’
The same principle applies to private property. Condominiums near MRT stations can command a premium of up to 20 per cent over similar units a bit further away, said Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group.
The price difference stems partly from the convenience of these homes, but is also due to their limited supply, he added.
‘If you look at the whole map of Singapore, I dare say only about half the MRT stations have condos right next door. Of course, they command a premium, a good 10 to 20 per cent above neighbouring properties 10 minutes’ walk away.’
At Tiong Bahru MRT station, for instance, new condos that are at the doorstep of the station - such as Twin Regency and Regency Heights in Kim Tian Road - fetch $1,240 per sq ft (psf) on average.
About five to 10 minutes away, prices average $1,072 psf, or about 15 per cent less, at the equally new The Regency at Tiong Bahru on Chay Yan Street.
‘Most of these units are rarely on the market,’ said Mr Cheng. ‘Even if the owners are not staying in them, they might not want to sell because they can get very high rental returns.’
Still, not all MRT stations are equal. Property values can differ widely between two consecutive stops, such as in the case of Novena and Toa Payoh, where condos around the former are almost double the price of those around the latter, according to an extensive analysis done by property firm Savills Singapore.
Even stations within a few kilometres of each other can see significantly different prices.
Savills’ data showed that condos around the Dhoby Ghaut station, for instance, fetched an average of around $1,600 psf in the first six months of the year. Less than 2km away, condos near the Little India station cost only two-thirds that on average, or $1,071 psf.
‘Apart from the proximity to an MRT station, buyers do look at other factors,’ said Mr Ku Swee Yong, Savills’ director of marketing and business development.
“Equally important is the quality, age and tenure of the project and its facilities, how much the unit can fetch in rentals and what amenities are nearby.”
Mr Ku cited Lavender and Farrer Park MRT stations, separated by just 1.5km in distance but about $200 psf in price
At Lavender, well-equipped condos such as Citylights boosted prices in the vicinity to an average of $1,104 psf in the first six months of the year. But Farrer Park is surrounded by several smaller condos with minimal facilities, so rents and prices tend to be lower, said Mr Ku.
HOME seeker Wan Kum Wai is hunting for a flat that is well-located - specifically, within walking distance of an MRT station.
For this convenience, the multimedia designer and his wife Jessie are willing to pay 10 to 20 per cent more than they would for a home a few bus stops away from a station.
‘We don’t drive, and the cost of living is running high,’ he said. ‘We don’t mind paying more because we think this will help us save on transportation costs and other expenses in the long run.’
In an era of sky-high petrol prices, multiplying Electronic Road Pricing gantries and increasing worries over environmental degradation, the all-important ‘location, location, location’ element of a home purchase has taken on a new slant.
While the classic prime districts of 9, 10, 11 are still sought after, home buyers are also increasingly keen on properties near MRT stations.
Apart from non-drivers, MRT-accessible homes also attract buyers with school-going children as well as investors who want to rent the units to expatriates, many of whom rely heavily on public transport, say property agents.
Ms Mylene Kwan, a PropNex agent who is helping Mr Wan find a home, said some of her clients have only one priority: to be near an MRT station.
‘Many of them don’t drive, so it’s very important to these buyers,’ she said.
But such proximity comes at a price.
Ms Kwan estimated that HDB flats with this privilege have their valuations alone jacked up by at least $20,000 or $30,000, and buyers often pay even more in cash on top of that.
The most popular HDB flats near MRT stations are those close to town, such as in the Tiong Bahru, Redhill and Queenstown areas, she said.
But even in the suburbs, a nearby station can give a big boost to prices.
In Woodlands, owners of flats near the MRT station are asking $40,000 to $50,000 above valuation just because of the location, said Ms Rohaizah Ramjan, another PropNex agent.
Whenever these flats come on the market, they get snapped up within two or three weeks, she added. For ‘normal ones’ further from the station, it can take a few months for a sale to be closed.
‘Flats near MRT stations are harder to come by, because owners are comfortable there and don’t want to sell,’ she said. ‘So if a buyer has the budget and they see a well-located flat for sale, they just grab.’
The same principle applies to private property. Condominiums near MRT stations can command a premium of up to 20 per cent over similar units a bit further away, said Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group.
The price difference stems partly from the convenience of these homes, but is also due to their limited supply, he added.
‘If you look at the whole map of Singapore, I dare say only about half the MRT stations have condos right next door. Of course, they command a premium, a good 10 to 20 per cent above neighbouring properties 10 minutes’ walk away.’
At Tiong Bahru MRT station, for instance, new condos that are at the doorstep of the station - such as Twin Regency and Regency Heights in Kim Tian Road - fetch $1,240 per sq ft (psf) on average.
About five to 10 minutes away, prices average $1,072 psf, or about 15 per cent less, at the equally new The Regency at Tiong Bahru on Chay Yan Street.
‘Most of these units are rarely on the market,’ said Mr Cheng. ‘Even if the owners are not staying in them, they might not want to sell because they can get very high rental returns.’
Still, not all MRT stations are equal. Property values can differ widely between two consecutive stops, such as in the case of Novena and Toa Payoh, where condos around the former are almost double the price of those around the latter, according to an extensive analysis done by property firm Savills Singapore.
Even stations within a few kilometres of each other can see significantly different prices.
Savills’ data showed that condos around the Dhoby Ghaut station, for instance, fetched an average of around $1,600 psf in the first six months of the year. Less than 2km away, condos near the Little India station cost only two-thirds that on average, or $1,071 psf.
‘Apart from the proximity to an MRT station, buyers do look at other factors,’ said Mr Ku Swee Yong, Savills’ director of marketing and business development.
“Equally important is the quality, age and tenure of the project and its facilities, how much the unit can fetch in rentals and what amenities are nearby.”
Mr Ku cited Lavender and Farrer Park MRT stations, separated by just 1.5km in distance but about $200 psf in price
At Lavender, well-equipped condos such as Citylights boosted prices in the vicinity to an average of $1,104 psf in the first six months of the year. But Farrer Park is surrounded by several smaller condos with minimal facilities, so rents and prices tend to be lower, said Mr Ku.
Q3 prices of resale flats up 4.2%; that of private property down 1.8%
Prices of resale flats rose a preliminary 4.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year.
HDB said on Thursday that the figure is just slightly lower than the 4.5 per cent increase in the second quarter.
For the year-to-date, prices of resale flats have risen almost 13 per cent.
HDB said it has to date launched about 5,000 of the planned supply of 8,400 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats for 2008.
Subject to demand, HDB plans to offer another 3,400 new flats under the BTO system in the remaining months in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang and Yishun.
The new BTO flat supply will be in addition to the sale exercises offering balance flats from previous offers.
HDB will provide more details of the BTO flats when the projects are launched.
It said it will continue to monitor the market situation closely, and new sites will be launched based on assessed market demand.
Unlike resale flats, prices of private property declined in the third quarter.
Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) of Singapore, showed that prices fell 1.8 per cent from the second quarter - the first quarterly contraction in more than four years.
URA also released on Thursday the flash estimates of the price changes in the three geographical regions.
For the third quarter, prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by two per cent in Core Central Region and 2.1 per cent in Rest of Central Region.
Prices of non-landed properties outside the Central Region rose 0.1 per cent.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold.
The statistics will be updated four weeks later when URA releases the full third quarter real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured.
HDB said on Thursday that the figure is just slightly lower than the 4.5 per cent increase in the second quarter.
For the year-to-date, prices of resale flats have risen almost 13 per cent.
HDB said it has to date launched about 5,000 of the planned supply of 8,400 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats for 2008.
Subject to demand, HDB plans to offer another 3,400 new flats under the BTO system in the remaining months in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang and Yishun.
The new BTO flat supply will be in addition to the sale exercises offering balance flats from previous offers.
HDB will provide more details of the BTO flats when the projects are launched.
It said it will continue to monitor the market situation closely, and new sites will be launched based on assessed market demand.
Unlike resale flats, prices of private property declined in the third quarter.
Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) of Singapore, showed that prices fell 1.8 per cent from the second quarter - the first quarterly contraction in more than four years.
URA also released on Thursday the flash estimates of the price changes in the three geographical regions.
For the third quarter, prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by two per cent in Core Central Region and 2.1 per cent in Rest of Central Region.
Prices of non-landed properties outside the Central Region rose 0.1 per cent.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold.
The statistics will be updated four weeks later when URA releases the full third quarter real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured.
Singapore property investment: Spoilt for choice
Home buyers have a wide range of projects to choose from that will match their lifestyles.
PROPERTY investment requires substantial capital outlay and it takes a longer time to dispose of it compared to other assets like shares, especially in a soft market. Important factors to consider before making a purchase therefore include:
~ Purpose of purchase, ie whether for owner-occupation or investment;
~ Your budget and the price of the property;
~ Surrounding environment;
~ Proximity to amenities such as MRT stations, schools, and shopping centres;
~ Rental and resale values (especially if you are buying for investment);
~ and Reputation of the developer.
Many of these factors are related to location, which is often cited as the most important criterion in property purchase. Besides the traditional prime districts 9, 10 and 11, there are other areas worth considering.
The east coast has always been a favourite among Singaporeans, being close to the city and beach, easily accessible to the airport, and with many amenities like shopping, food and beverage, and the Marina Bay golf course. Faced with high rents in the prime districts, the East Coast has also become a popular alternative with many expatriates.
Joo Chiat and Katong are rich in the culture of Eurasian and Peranakan communities, and their food and architecture. Residents in the East Coast will also enjoy proximity to the Sports Hub when it is completed in a few years’ time. Besides Parkway Parade and Kallang Leisure Park, the Sports Hub will offer 441,000 sq ft of commercial space and the redevelopment of Katong Mall is expected to have about 185 retail units.
There are ample choices of developments to suit different budgets. Developments with sea views such as The Belvedere, Water Place and Sanctuary Green enjoy strong leasing interest with monthly median rentals ranging from $3.80 to $4.50 per sq ft.
The last three years have seen other areas getting popular as they offer alternative quality lifestyle living.
Waterfront living, which in the past had been mostly confined to the east and by the Singapore River, gathered momentum in the last few years with areas like Sentosa Cove, Keppel Bay and Marina Bay coming up.
Sentosa Cove offers luxurious houses and condominiums with sea or canal views, and more than 50 per cent of the buyers are foreigners. Many of the properties are bought as weekend or holiday homes. Keppel Bay offers exhilarating views of Sentosa, ships cruising in and out of the harbour front and pleasure boats berthed at Marina at Keppel Bay.
Since the completion of Caribbean at Keppel Bay in 2004, the Harbourfront area has livened up with many lifestyle amenities such as VivoCity, St James Power Station, Marina at Keppel Bay and Jewel Box at Mount Faber.
Future developments that residents in Sentosa Cove and Keppel Bay can look forward to are the integrated resort at Sentosa and the government’s development of the Southern Ridges and waterfront.
The Southern Ridges, Labrador area and Keppel waterfront will collectively form a major recreational and leisure destination at the southern part of Singapore. Already bridge connections have been made to link the 9km chain of green, open spaces across Mount Faber Park, Telok Blangah Hill Park and Kent Ridge Park. Soon, an elevated boardwalk over the sea will be built skirting the foothills of Bukit Chermin, and connect eastwards to the future promenade at The Reflections at Keppel Bay condominium project and westwards to Labrador Park.
According to URA statistics, Caribbean at Keppel Bay consistently enjoys one of the highest rentals among condominiums islandwide. Its median rent was $6.40 per sq ft in 2Q 2008. The potential supply in the area is fairly limited. Besides the uncompleted The Reflections at Keppel Bay, with 507 units available out of a total 1,129 units as at end 2Q 2008, the only other projects in the pipeline in the area are 307 units on a parcel next to Caribbean at Keppel Bay and 94 units on Keppel Island.
At Marina Bay, there will be plenty of buzz from the Marina Bay Sands integrated resort, Marina Bay Shoppes, and events and activities that are being/will be held in the bay. Marina Bay Shoppes will provide 800,000 sq ft of retail space, close to the one million sq ft in VivoCity. Nearby is the uncompleted Gardens at Marina South which will provide nature relief from the hustle and bustle.
Tiong Bahru, with its MRT station, Tiong Bahru Plaza, conserved buildings, Tiong Bahru market and hawker centre and freehold condominiums like Twin Regency, Regency Suites and The Regency at Tiong Bahru, has a strong following for its convenience of transport and amenities. The area is attractive with many expatriates and working professionals who like the quaint living environment near their workplaces. Monthly rents of Twin Regency, which was completed in 2007, are generally above $4.50 per sq ft.
Other growing fringe city areas are at Selegie and Beach Road/Kallang area. Both are near the Bras Basah/Bugis area which is developing nicely into a bustling arts, cultural, entertainment and education hub. The rich history and conserved shophouses at Beach Road and Kampong Glam offer a variety of experiences with their traditional trades, interesting shops and food outlets. Nearby at Bugis, Illuma will be completed soon by end of the year.
At Selegie, there are upcoming malls like Wilkie Edge, while Tekka Mall is being re-positioned and re-named The Verge. New residential developments include Parc Emily and Parc Mackenzie. Monthly rents of Parc Emily are at least $4.50 per sq ft while some units were recently sold for about $1,100 to $1,200 per sq ft. Projects currently available for sale include Parc Sophia and Mount Sophia Suites, with the latter not fully released.
At the Beach Road/Kallang area, the government plans to develop the Ophir-Rochor corridor into a vibrant office cluster for financial and business institutions that will complement the financial district at Marina Bay and Raffles Place. The Circle Line will further enhance the accessibility and connectivity of the vicinity.
Further up at Kallang Riverside, plans are announced in the draft Master Plan 2008 to develop it into a commercial hub with a residential enclave capitalising on the beach and waterfront. Launched at about $1,400 per sq ft last year, The Riverine by the Park, a 96-unit development at Kallang Road, was well-received and fully sold in weeks. A more recent launch is Concourse Skyline with selling price of $1,500-$1,800 per sq ft, which will be able to take advantage of an area that is anticipated to grow into a sought-after mixed commercial and residential area at the city fringe and with waterfront views of the Kallang River and the sea.
Property buyers are now spoilt for choice, as more areas take off, backed by the government’s plan to introduce city living and develop different parts of the island to provide for varied lifestyle needs. Understanding the attractions and potential of each area is therefore important so that it will be easier to sell or rent the property that is purchased and to ensure that there is better capital protection or appreciation.
PROPERTY investment requires substantial capital outlay and it takes a longer time to dispose of it compared to other assets like shares, especially in a soft market. Important factors to consider before making a purchase therefore include:
~ Purpose of purchase, ie whether for owner-occupation or investment;
~ Your budget and the price of the property;
~ Surrounding environment;
~ Proximity to amenities such as MRT stations, schools, and shopping centres;
~ Rental and resale values (especially if you are buying for investment);
~ and Reputation of the developer.
Many of these factors are related to location, which is often cited as the most important criterion in property purchase. Besides the traditional prime districts 9, 10 and 11, there are other areas worth considering.
The east coast has always been a favourite among Singaporeans, being close to the city and beach, easily accessible to the airport, and with many amenities like shopping, food and beverage, and the Marina Bay golf course. Faced with high rents in the prime districts, the East Coast has also become a popular alternative with many expatriates.
Joo Chiat and Katong are rich in the culture of Eurasian and Peranakan communities, and their food and architecture. Residents in the East Coast will also enjoy proximity to the Sports Hub when it is completed in a few years’ time. Besides Parkway Parade and Kallang Leisure Park, the Sports Hub will offer 441,000 sq ft of commercial space and the redevelopment of Katong Mall is expected to have about 185 retail units.
There are ample choices of developments to suit different budgets. Developments with sea views such as The Belvedere, Water Place and Sanctuary Green enjoy strong leasing interest with monthly median rentals ranging from $3.80 to $4.50 per sq ft.
The last three years have seen other areas getting popular as they offer alternative quality lifestyle living.
Waterfront living, which in the past had been mostly confined to the east and by the Singapore River, gathered momentum in the last few years with areas like Sentosa Cove, Keppel Bay and Marina Bay coming up.
Sentosa Cove offers luxurious houses and condominiums with sea or canal views, and more than 50 per cent of the buyers are foreigners. Many of the properties are bought as weekend or holiday homes. Keppel Bay offers exhilarating views of Sentosa, ships cruising in and out of the harbour front and pleasure boats berthed at Marina at Keppel Bay.
Since the completion of Caribbean at Keppel Bay in 2004, the Harbourfront area has livened up with many lifestyle amenities such as VivoCity, St James Power Station, Marina at Keppel Bay and Jewel Box at Mount Faber.
Future developments that residents in Sentosa Cove and Keppel Bay can look forward to are the integrated resort at Sentosa and the government’s development of the Southern Ridges and waterfront.
The Southern Ridges, Labrador area and Keppel waterfront will collectively form a major recreational and leisure destination at the southern part of Singapore. Already bridge connections have been made to link the 9km chain of green, open spaces across Mount Faber Park, Telok Blangah Hill Park and Kent Ridge Park. Soon, an elevated boardwalk over the sea will be built skirting the foothills of Bukit Chermin, and connect eastwards to the future promenade at The Reflections at Keppel Bay condominium project and westwards to Labrador Park.
According to URA statistics, Caribbean at Keppel Bay consistently enjoys one of the highest rentals among condominiums islandwide. Its median rent was $6.40 per sq ft in 2Q 2008. The potential supply in the area is fairly limited. Besides the uncompleted The Reflections at Keppel Bay, with 507 units available out of a total 1,129 units as at end 2Q 2008, the only other projects in the pipeline in the area are 307 units on a parcel next to Caribbean at Keppel Bay and 94 units on Keppel Island.
At Marina Bay, there will be plenty of buzz from the Marina Bay Sands integrated resort, Marina Bay Shoppes, and events and activities that are being/will be held in the bay. Marina Bay Shoppes will provide 800,000 sq ft of retail space, close to the one million sq ft in VivoCity. Nearby is the uncompleted Gardens at Marina South which will provide nature relief from the hustle and bustle.
Tiong Bahru, with its MRT station, Tiong Bahru Plaza, conserved buildings, Tiong Bahru market and hawker centre and freehold condominiums like Twin Regency, Regency Suites and The Regency at Tiong Bahru, has a strong following for its convenience of transport and amenities. The area is attractive with many expatriates and working professionals who like the quaint living environment near their workplaces. Monthly rents of Twin Regency, which was completed in 2007, are generally above $4.50 per sq ft.
Other growing fringe city areas are at Selegie and Beach Road/Kallang area. Both are near the Bras Basah/Bugis area which is developing nicely into a bustling arts, cultural, entertainment and education hub. The rich history and conserved shophouses at Beach Road and Kampong Glam offer a variety of experiences with their traditional trades, interesting shops and food outlets. Nearby at Bugis, Illuma will be completed soon by end of the year.
At Selegie, there are upcoming malls like Wilkie Edge, while Tekka Mall is being re-positioned and re-named The Verge. New residential developments include Parc Emily and Parc Mackenzie. Monthly rents of Parc Emily are at least $4.50 per sq ft while some units were recently sold for about $1,100 to $1,200 per sq ft. Projects currently available for sale include Parc Sophia and Mount Sophia Suites, with the latter not fully released.
At the Beach Road/Kallang area, the government plans to develop the Ophir-Rochor corridor into a vibrant office cluster for financial and business institutions that will complement the financial district at Marina Bay and Raffles Place. The Circle Line will further enhance the accessibility and connectivity of the vicinity.
Further up at Kallang Riverside, plans are announced in the draft Master Plan 2008 to develop it into a commercial hub with a residential enclave capitalising on the beach and waterfront. Launched at about $1,400 per sq ft last year, The Riverine by the Park, a 96-unit development at Kallang Road, was well-received and fully sold in weeks. A more recent launch is Concourse Skyline with selling price of $1,500-$1,800 per sq ft, which will be able to take advantage of an area that is anticipated to grow into a sought-after mixed commercial and residential area at the city fringe and with waterfront views of the Kallang River and the sea.
Property buyers are now spoilt for choice, as more areas take off, backed by the government’s plan to introduce city living and develop different parts of the island to provide for varied lifestyle needs. Understanding the attractions and potential of each area is therefore important so that it will be easier to sell or rent the property that is purchased and to ensure that there is better capital protection or appreciation.
买在全世界人都恐慌悲伤之时
关注两条关于巴菲特的新闻：
巴菲特18亿入股比亚迪一月内两次认购中国公司
巴菲特：我会在中国大规模投资
有点感触写出：
1、危机过后财富重新分配,佐罗认为考虑问题不要看眼前，只盯住危机来了我该怎么办？我们现在要考虑的是危机过后我们怎么办？巨大的心理恐惧压力释放后，我们怎么使自己的资产十倍百倍的甚至千倍的增长？？
2、首先我们描绘一下，危机后迅速财富增值的人是什么样性格习惯的？喜欢坚持？倔强？灵活聪明？傻呼呼？能见风使舵？能见缝插针？我想我宁愿傻呼呼地相信自己！
3、首先我想说，未来最大机会就在于受害最深的行业中的不死鸟。条件转好，由于同类被大批淘汰，它有了更广阔的觅食空间，由于有了灾难的洗礼，它会更有抵御风险能力，展翅高飞只是时间的问题！！比如工行，现在买些它的股票，再工行存同样数目的钱，过五年你比较一下，什么都明白了！什么更安全更好收益呢？考量时间稍稍放长一些。
4、没有别的办法，我们只有持有这样一来的饱受灾难而不能消亡的企业，我们没想逃过这次的暴跌和危机，因此我们坚信能抓住下次的腾飞。
5、和危机来临时候一样，腾飞也是在悄无声息中开始的，当你意识到危机可能已经过去，这样的企业已经慢慢起步了，所以我们倔强傻呼呼地不去理会市场和经济环境。如果我们像巴菲特那样有钱的话，全球性的收购活动也会开始启动的。
6、真佩服老巴，非要买在全世界人都在恐慌甚至悲伤之时！欧洲一大私募卧轨了；美国数万人失业；全世界大许多人都在恐慌和失望中度日如年，而他呢，又兴奋了！大收购可能要开始了，中国，是否会作为重点？为了未来20年做新的储备？一个古稀老头这么振奋、这么有干劲、考虑这么长远，我们呢，难道要被眼前短暂的困难压趴下么？更何况，我们处在伟大、务实、勤勉、自信、发展的中国！！
7、我要学习，要想法有不断地现金流，要有一生买在最恐慌时刻的耐心，这是老巴的精髓，如果企业基本长期不死，就可能有未来发展的大机遇！
8、极少的选择，极少的操作，才能获取最大的收益！
（没事情时候多检讨检查监视自己，也许成功就会更进一步了！）
巴菲特18亿入股比亚迪一月内两次认购中国公司
巴菲特：我会在中国大规模投资
有点感触写出：
1、危机过后财富重新分配,佐罗认为考虑问题不要看眼前，只盯住危机来了我该怎么办？我们现在要考虑的是危机过后我们怎么办？巨大的心理恐惧压力释放后，我们怎么使自己的资产十倍百倍的甚至千倍的增长？？
2、首先我们描绘一下，危机后迅速财富增值的人是什么样性格习惯的？喜欢坚持？倔强？灵活聪明？傻呼呼？能见风使舵？能见缝插针？我想我宁愿傻呼呼地相信自己！
3、首先我想说，未来最大机会就在于受害最深的行业中的不死鸟。条件转好，由于同类被大批淘汰，它有了更广阔的觅食空间，由于有了灾难的洗礼，它会更有抵御风险能力，展翅高飞只是时间的问题！！比如工行，现在买些它的股票，再工行存同样数目的钱，过五年你比较一下，什么都明白了！什么更安全更好收益呢？考量时间稍稍放长一些。
4、没有别的办法，我们只有持有这样一来的饱受灾难而不能消亡的企业，我们没想逃过这次的暴跌和危机，因此我们坚信能抓住下次的腾飞。
5、和危机来临时候一样，腾飞也是在悄无声息中开始的，当你意识到危机可能已经过去，这样的企业已经慢慢起步了，所以我们倔强傻呼呼地不去理会市场和经济环境。如果我们像巴菲特那样有钱的话，全球性的收购活动也会开始启动的。
6、真佩服老巴，非要买在全世界人都在恐慌甚至悲伤之时！欧洲一大私募卧轨了；美国数万人失业；全世界大许多人都在恐慌和失望中度日如年，而他呢，又兴奋了！大收购可能要开始了，中国，是否会作为重点？为了未来20年做新的储备？一个古稀老头这么振奋、这么有干劲、考虑这么长远，我们呢，难道要被眼前短暂的困难压趴下么？更何况，我们处在伟大、务实、勤勉、自信、发展的中国！！
7、我要学习，要想法有不断地现金流，要有一生买在最恐慌时刻的耐心，这是老巴的精髓，如果企业基本长期不死，就可能有未来发展的大机遇！
8、极少的选择，极少的操作，才能获取最大的收益！
（没事情时候多检讨检查监视自己，也许成功就会更进一步了！）
弱市如何投资？
美国知名的基金经理彼得林奇曾经说过，炒股和减肥一样，决定最终结果的不是头脑而是毅力。毅力，这个词在如今的市场中听起来也许有点不合时宜，在大盘跌去了60%多以后，许多人不知道究竟还有什么可以坚持。
彼得林奇在他的畅销书《战胜华尔街》中，记述了这么一个民间投资组织——全国投资者协会，一个堪称打败了许多专业投资机构的民间团体，他们的投资战绩让很多人艳羡，整个80年代，在投资者协会注册登记的大多数俱乐部会员的投资业绩都超过了标准普尔500指数，而同期3/4的股票基金没有跑赢大盘。
这些俱乐部成功的关键因素之一是，他们按照一个固定的时间表定期进行投资，由此避免了对市场是涨是跌的无用猜测，并且杜绝了一时冲动的买入或卖出造成的破坏性后果。彼得林奇曾要求富达基金技术部门做了以下统计，结果证实了这种定期定额的投资方法确实相当有效。
“统计显示，如果你在这52年期间，每年的1月31日都定期定额追加1000美元，52年后，你所投资的52000美元将会增值到3554227美元。如果你够有勇气，可以在每次股市下跌超过10%后，再追加1000美元。这52年中股市下跌10%以上共有31次，这样加上每年年初投资的1000美元，你的总投资为83000美元，经过52年后会增值到6295000美元。”彼得林奇指出，如果执行一个定期定额投资计划，而且不管股市涨跌如何都始终坚持，你就会得到丰厚的回报，而如果在大多数投资者吓得纷纷卖出股票时再追加投资，你就会得到更加丰厚的回报。
投资者协会的10000家俱乐部正是这样，自始至终严格遵守定期定额投资的铁律，不管是1987年10月股市崩盘之后，还是关于世界末日即将来临以及银行系统即将崩溃的预言铺天盖地的时候，他们完全无视这些恐慌性言论，继续坚持买入股票。
许多投资者都把系统性崩盘看成是灭顶之灾，但彼得林奇是这样理解的，“每当我对目前的大局感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于更大的大局”，即用更长更远的眼光来看股市，“在过去的70年里，曾发生过40次超过10%的大跌，其中有13次属于令人恐怖的暴跌，每当股市大跌，我对未来忧虑之时，我就会回忆过去历史上发生过的40次大跌，来安抚自己那颗有些恐惧的心，我告诉自己，大跌其实是好事，让我们又有一次好机会，以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票”。
彼得林奇在他的畅销书《战胜华尔街》中，记述了这么一个民间投资组织——全国投资者协会，一个堪称打败了许多专业投资机构的民间团体，他们的投资战绩让很多人艳羡，整个80年代，在投资者协会注册登记的大多数俱乐部会员的投资业绩都超过了标准普尔500指数，而同期3/4的股票基金没有跑赢大盘。
这些俱乐部成功的关键因素之一是，他们按照一个固定的时间表定期进行投资，由此避免了对市场是涨是跌的无用猜测，并且杜绝了一时冲动的买入或卖出造成的破坏性后果。彼得林奇曾要求富达基金技术部门做了以下统计，结果证实了这种定期定额的投资方法确实相当有效。
“统计显示，如果你在这52年期间，每年的1月31日都定期定额追加1000美元，52年后，你所投资的52000美元将会增值到3554227美元。如果你够有勇气，可以在每次股市下跌超过10%后，再追加1000美元。这52年中股市下跌10%以上共有31次，这样加上每年年初投资的1000美元，你的总投资为83000美元，经过52年后会增值到6295000美元。”彼得林奇指出，如果执行一个定期定额投资计划，而且不管股市涨跌如何都始终坚持，你就会得到丰厚的回报，而如果在大多数投资者吓得纷纷卖出股票时再追加投资，你就会得到更加丰厚的回报。
投资者协会的10000家俱乐部正是这样，自始至终严格遵守定期定额投资的铁律，不管是1987年10月股市崩盘之后，还是关于世界末日即将来临以及银行系统即将崩溃的预言铺天盖地的时候，他们完全无视这些恐慌性言论，继续坚持买入股票。
许多投资者都把系统性崩盘看成是灭顶之灾，但彼得林奇是这样理解的，“每当我对目前的大局感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于更大的大局”，即用更长更远的眼光来看股市，“在过去的70年里，曾发生过40次超过10%的大跌，其中有13次属于令人恐怖的暴跌，每当股市大跌，我对未来忧虑之时，我就会回忆过去历史上发生过的40次大跌，来安抚自己那颗有些恐惧的心，我告诉自己，大跌其实是好事，让我们又有一次好机会，以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票”。
“如果要说成功的投资有什么秘诀，我想，是安全边际。”
在价值投资中，有一个非常重要的概念，即安全边际。我们甚至可以说，价值投资之父，本-格雷厄姆所建立的价值投资体系的核心就是安全边际的运用。而价值投资中对企业价值进行分析和估值，以及由此带出的对上市公司的基本面分析，最终都是为在投资决策过程中应用更好的安全边际。
简单的说，安全边际的准则就是要求投资者在投资一项生意或者某种股票的时候，买入价格与内在价值之间的折价空间。当你准备买入一只内在价值为100块的股票时，你为自己留下的潜在收益空间就是你这次投资的安全边际，如果你预期的基本收益要达到30块，那么你就应当以低于70块的价格买入。拥有安全边际的投资，就像有些喜欢购物的人，看上了某件200块的衣服，但要等到商店打折季节到来的时候，再以5折买入一样。
听起来似乎很简单，但是投资和购买打折商品有着明显的不同，到了促销季节，商品自然会给予明确的折扣；而股票价格进入下跌市场时，往往是一个持续、存在反复并且缓慢的过程。市场和股价的波动会提供给我们足够的安全边际的空间吗？
这一点无须投资者担心，打开交易软件，随便找一只股票，看看它过去两年的股价变化情况，恐怕很多股票在这一段期间的最高价和最低价都有着几倍的差距。以A股著名的酒类上市公司贵州茅台为例，2006年9月12日，贵州茅台的收盘价是43.8元；在2008年1月15日，它的股价最高达到了230.55元。前后时间不到2年，股价发生了近6倍的变化。而2006年和2007年两年的业绩增长不到2倍，就算以2008年预期每股收益4.8元的高水平来和2006年业绩来进行对比，后者也不过是前者的3倍。为何股价变化范围远大于业绩变化范围呢？（为了阐述的方便，我们假设公司前后3年的业绩增长速度稳定，即公司合理估值水平不变。）排除业绩变化的影响后，这种公司股价的额外波动来自于哪里呢？
答案是市场。市场情绪的变化，或者说本质上市场流动性的变化带来了这种额外的波动。市场情绪会反映到股票的估值上，上升市场中估值被不断调高，下跌市场中估值水平则被不断调低。
股票市场上的盈利和亏损都会影响到市场的情绪，赢利导致贪婪；亏损导致恐惧。上升中的市场很容易吸引更多资金的注入，尤其是在牛市的最后阶段，巨大的财富效应似乎传遍了社会的每一个角落，更多的个人投资者将他们的储蓄变成了股票，然后开始幻想每天坐着数钱的日子。上升市场中不断涌入的新资金使得市场更加亢奋，流动性的增加帮助股票从最开始的折价销售变成高溢价销售。从轻度溢价到高溢价是一个非理性并且疯狂的过程，一个正常人绝对不会听说超市里面的面包涨了20%就冲去买面包；但他却会因为听说别人的股票涨了20%冲去买股票。
而当股价开始下落的时候，刚刚经历过上升市场的多数人是不会卖出股票的，他们相信股价还会上涨的；当股价下跌到一定程度，多数人开始亏损了，也很难卖出股票承认亏损，多数人还是会希望股价回升；然后股价继续下落，到了让他们不能忍受并且恐惧的地步，于是人们在损失最严重的时候纷纷卖出，唯恐落后他人一步而遭受更大损失。而且很多遭受过损失的人首先考虑的是如何挽回损失，于是他们开始寻找一些表现好的股票的，然后买入，结果又遭遇同样的亏损过程。在无数个这样的微观过程下，股价必然会经历一个高溢价到合理再到低估的历程。
所以，股价总是在围绕着股票的内在价值不断的上下波动，而股价真正停留在合理价值的
时间极少。这也是为什么像巴菲特这样信奉价值投资的人相信市场总是在犯错误，“格雷厄姆的价值投资理论就是建立在这一个前提下的：首先，他相信市场经常给予股票错误的价格。这种错误的价格往往是由人们情感的恐惧和贪婪引起。一旦乐观，贪婪就使股价超越它的内在价值，形成溢价。相反，恐惧又让价格跌落在内在价值之下，形成低估。”从价值投资的创设开始，就指出了股价的变化并不是以合理价值作为运动边界的。市场的波动一定会让股价不断地被高估，再不断地被低估。
另外，市场上多数参与者经常忘记股票实际代表着公司的价值，在他们眼中，股票不过是来回买卖的标的物。这样的市场参与者越多，整个市场的股价波动就会越激烈。而对寻求安全边际的价值投资者来说，这样的市场也就意味更大的机会，买入时能够获得更大的安全边际，卖出时也能够获得更高的溢价。
安全边际是价值投资所应该牢记的第三条准则。在拥有足够的安全边际时买入，在高度溢价时卖出，然后耐心等待新的安全边际的出现，这是价值投资者应该做的事情。
简单的说，安全边际的准则就是要求投资者在投资一项生意或者某种股票的时候，买入价格与内在价值之间的折价空间。当你准备买入一只内在价值为100块的股票时，你为自己留下的潜在收益空间就是你这次投资的安全边际，如果你预期的基本收益要达到30块，那么你就应当以低于70块的价格买入。拥有安全边际的投资，就像有些喜欢购物的人，看上了某件200块的衣服，但要等到商店打折季节到来的时候，再以5折买入一样。
听起来似乎很简单，但是投资和购买打折商品有着明显的不同，到了促销季节，商品自然会给予明确的折扣；而股票价格进入下跌市场时，往往是一个持续、存在反复并且缓慢的过程。市场和股价的波动会提供给我们足够的安全边际的空间吗？
这一点无须投资者担心，打开交易软件，随便找一只股票，看看它过去两年的股价变化情况，恐怕很多股票在这一段期间的最高价和最低价都有着几倍的差距。以A股著名的酒类上市公司贵州茅台为例，2006年9月12日，贵州茅台的收盘价是43.8元；在2008年1月15日，它的股价最高达到了230.55元。前后时间不到2年，股价发生了近6倍的变化。而2006年和2007年两年的业绩增长不到2倍，就算以2008年预期每股收益4.8元的高水平来和2006年业绩来进行对比，后者也不过是前者的3倍。为何股价变化范围远大于业绩变化范围呢？（为了阐述的方便，我们假设公司前后3年的业绩增长速度稳定，即公司合理估值水平不变。）排除业绩变化的影响后，这种公司股价的额外波动来自于哪里呢？
答案是市场。市场情绪的变化，或者说本质上市场流动性的变化带来了这种额外的波动。市场情绪会反映到股票的估值上，上升市场中估值被不断调高，下跌市场中估值水平则被不断调低。
股票市场上的盈利和亏损都会影响到市场的情绪，赢利导致贪婪；亏损导致恐惧。上升中的市场很容易吸引更多资金的注入，尤其是在牛市的最后阶段，巨大的财富效应似乎传遍了社会的每一个角落，更多的个人投资者将他们的储蓄变成了股票，然后开始幻想每天坐着数钱的日子。上升市场中不断涌入的新资金使得市场更加亢奋，流动性的增加帮助股票从最开始的折价销售变成高溢价销售。从轻度溢价到高溢价是一个非理性并且疯狂的过程，一个正常人绝对不会听说超市里面的面包涨了20%就冲去买面包；但他却会因为听说别人的股票涨了20%冲去买股票。
而当股价开始下落的时候，刚刚经历过上升市场的多数人是不会卖出股票的，他们相信股价还会上涨的；当股价下跌到一定程度，多数人开始亏损了，也很难卖出股票承认亏损，多数人还是会希望股价回升；然后股价继续下落，到了让他们不能忍受并且恐惧的地步，于是人们在损失最严重的时候纷纷卖出，唯恐落后他人一步而遭受更大损失。而且很多遭受过损失的人首先考虑的是如何挽回损失，于是他们开始寻找一些表现好的股票的，然后买入，结果又遭遇同样的亏损过程。在无数个这样的微观过程下，股价必然会经历一个高溢价到合理再到低估的历程。
所以，股价总是在围绕着股票的内在价值不断的上下波动，而股价真正停留在合理价值的
时间极少。这也是为什么像巴菲特这样信奉价值投资的人相信市场总是在犯错误，“格雷厄姆的价值投资理论就是建立在这一个前提下的：首先，他相信市场经常给予股票错误的价格。这种错误的价格往往是由人们情感的恐惧和贪婪引起。一旦乐观，贪婪就使股价超越它的内在价值，形成溢价。相反，恐惧又让价格跌落在内在价值之下，形成低估。”从价值投资的创设开始，就指出了股价的变化并不是以合理价值作为运动边界的。市场的波动一定会让股价不断地被高估，再不断地被低估。
另外，市场上多数参与者经常忘记股票实际代表着公司的价值，在他们眼中，股票不过是来回买卖的标的物。这样的市场参与者越多，整个市场的股价波动就会越激烈。而对寻求安全边际的价值投资者来说，这样的市场也就意味更大的机会，买入时能够获得更大的安全边际，卖出时也能够获得更高的溢价。
安全边际是价值投资所应该牢记的第三条准则。在拥有足够的安全边际时买入，在高度溢价时卖出，然后耐心等待新的安全边际的出现，这是价值投资者应该做的事情。
保险公司成“金融风暴”下一波？
全球保险巨头美国国际集团(AIG)身陷次贷危机还未解决，国内的保险业是否能“独善其身”产生了怀疑。原全国人大常委会副委员长、著名经济学家成思危表示，金融风险会逐渐传递，下一步是保险公司。而中国保监会主席吴定富向新华社表示，由于我国保险业尚未放开投资海外金融衍生品的限制，因此没有直接受到大的影响，但次贷危机提供了深刻的风险警示。
保险业因持债身陷危机
成思危在央视一个访谈节目上表示，近期发生的华尔街金融风暴，是因一系列因素逐级放大、火上加油造成愈演愈烈。银行、投资银行、基金和保险都是美国金融资金链条的一环，现在银行和基金都遭殃了，保险公司将是下一波危机爆发的焦点。因为为了取得信用保险，一些基金的投资者就跟保险公司联系，而保险公司又买了一些MBS(即贷款抵押证券等)。所以，保险公司的隐患还未暴露出来。
对此，中山大学金融系教授黄伟指出，成思危分析得有一定道理。美国金融体系是自成一体，而且将风险分散到全球，因此次贷发生后，全球都很恐慌。但是，目前AIG出现了问题不是承保业务出问题，而是投资出现了巨大亏损，如同AIG在全球保险业有多少还未暴露出来，因此这个风险还未可知，不过肯定是存在的。
平安保险触雷股价大跌
富通9月15日发表公告称，该公司持有雷曼兄弟债券1.37亿欧元，逆回购交易2.70亿欧元，CDS交易产生的损失700万欧元。受此影响，富通股价出现大幅度下跌。而平安保险因购买欧洲富通集团股份，间接持有雷曼兄弟债券，平保投资额浮亏逾140亿元，因此给市场带来较大心理影响，平安股价一路下挫。但是，其他两家保险公司并未“触雷”。据悉，在当前3家A股上市保险公司中，保监会仅批准了中国人寿和中国平安的QDII额度，分别为相应公司上年末总资产的2％和15％。记者发现，中国人寿和中国太保都未投资雷曼兄弟、AIG、美林的相关债券。中国太保之所以没有QDII额度，原因是监管层本来计划在其完成H股上市之后再批准其投资额度。
专家建议推进存款保险
成思危认为，为防止AIG的危机在中国重演，国内当前应加紧推出存款保险，因为存款保险是一颗定心丸。金融危机最怕的就是银行挤兑，任何银行不可能把所有存款都放在自己手里，都把它贷出去了，如果大家都去银行提款，那就必然会造成严重的问题。美国早就对10万美元以下的存款户实行保险制度，因此，尽管美国这次金融风暴来得这么厉害，银行并没有受到挤兑等等影响。
今年3月份，有消息传出，央行正在紧锣密鼓准备这项工作，有望今年建立起存款保险机构。如今，由于次贷危机的升级，业内外对存款保险制度更为迫切。黄伟认为，存款保险制度的建立必须是新的独立的存款保险机构，否则在央行、银监会、财政部等部门间实现协调“相当困难”。从亚洲国家的经验看，基本都是建立独立的机构。
金融风暴带来三大启示
美国次贷危机给国际化业务已具相当规模的中资银行带了一定的损失。有关人士指出，由于我国金融改革的滞后性和国内市场的非理性，金融创新理应减缓步伐，甚至更有人认为股指期货和融资融券不宜即时推出。
金融创新要继续
长江证券分析师苏冬认则认为，次贷危机引起大家对金融安全的忧虑是正常的，但不能因噎废食，成为中国推迟金融创新的一个借口。美国发生次贷危机是因为金融衍生工具中杠杆使用过度，属于“过犹不及”，而中国却相反，金融衍生工具严重缺乏，极大制约了资本市场的融资、价格发现及其它功能。正是缺少了诸如股指期货这样的工具，中国证券市场才表现出暴涨暴跌的弊端。 花旗银行（中国）有限公司商业银行部总经理张之皓认同此说法。他指出，现在中国的钱全部由银行口子出去，极大地加剧了银行的风险，企业、居民、宏观经济、外汇所有不好的因素都反应在银行的账目上，一旦银行发生危机，后果不堪设想。因此，应加快资本市场的金融创新，让股市、银行、私募基金、保险都能发挥相应的资产配置功能，而不要让银行变成万能的“神”。
杠杆泡沫要不得
“为何次贷危机中最先倒闭是投行，而不是商业银行。这是因为投行的利润源泉是杠杆，而房地产也是使用杠杆最多的行业，当遇到危机，杠杆是很脆弱的，因此投行的亏损急剧放大，最后只能面临破产。”张之皓告诉记者。国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松认为，从国际经济环境看，美国经济金融体系在此之前是一个靠杠杆放大不断推动泡沫形成的过程。
据悉，一般银行的资本充足率要在8％以上，相当于12.5倍的杠杆，华尔街投行的杠杆却到了30倍，这是史无前例的。美林的杠杆率从2003年的15倍飙升至去年的28倍，摩根士丹利达33倍，高盛亦有28倍。史无前例的30倍杠杆意味着什么？赚1％相当于30％股本金的回报，但风险来了后，亏损3.3％即意味着破产。
风险管理要加强
中山大学岭南学院金融系主任陆军则认为，从这次倒闭或被兼并的金融机构来看，金融机构特别是投行在信用风险、市场风险、流动性风险以及资产集中风险的管理方面，内部控制上都有严重缺失。对中外金融机构来说，都需要改进对各类风险的评估；要有一套严格的风险管理的政策与程序；对市场风险与流动性风险要做压力测试；加强资本充足率管理；对各种可能风险出现后要有处理的预案。
保险业因持债身陷危机
成思危在央视一个访谈节目上表示，近期发生的华尔街金融风暴，是因一系列因素逐级放大、火上加油造成愈演愈烈。银行、投资银行、基金和保险都是美国金融资金链条的一环，现在银行和基金都遭殃了，保险公司将是下一波危机爆发的焦点。因为为了取得信用保险，一些基金的投资者就跟保险公司联系，而保险公司又买了一些MBS(即贷款抵押证券等)。所以，保险公司的隐患还未暴露出来。
对此，中山大学金融系教授黄伟指出，成思危分析得有一定道理。美国金融体系是自成一体，而且将风险分散到全球，因此次贷发生后，全球都很恐慌。但是，目前AIG出现了问题不是承保业务出问题，而是投资出现了巨大亏损，如同AIG在全球保险业有多少还未暴露出来，因此这个风险还未可知，不过肯定是存在的。
平安保险触雷股价大跌
富通9月15日发表公告称，该公司持有雷曼兄弟债券1.37亿欧元，逆回购交易2.70亿欧元，CDS交易产生的损失700万欧元。受此影响，富通股价出现大幅度下跌。而平安保险因购买欧洲富通集团股份，间接持有雷曼兄弟债券，平保投资额浮亏逾140亿元，因此给市场带来较大心理影响，平安股价一路下挫。但是，其他两家保险公司并未“触雷”。据悉，在当前3家A股上市保险公司中，保监会仅批准了中国人寿和中国平安的QDII额度，分别为相应公司上年末总资产的2％和15％。记者发现，中国人寿和中国太保都未投资雷曼兄弟、AIG、美林的相关债券。中国太保之所以没有QDII额度，原因是监管层本来计划在其完成H股上市之后再批准其投资额度。
专家建议推进存款保险
成思危认为，为防止AIG的危机在中国重演，国内当前应加紧推出存款保险，因为存款保险是一颗定心丸。金融危机最怕的就是银行挤兑，任何银行不可能把所有存款都放在自己手里，都把它贷出去了，如果大家都去银行提款，那就必然会造成严重的问题。美国早就对10万美元以下的存款户实行保险制度，因此，尽管美国这次金融风暴来得这么厉害，银行并没有受到挤兑等等影响。
今年3月份，有消息传出，央行正在紧锣密鼓准备这项工作，有望今年建立起存款保险机构。如今，由于次贷危机的升级，业内外对存款保险制度更为迫切。黄伟认为，存款保险制度的建立必须是新的独立的存款保险机构，否则在央行、银监会、财政部等部门间实现协调“相当困难”。从亚洲国家的经验看，基本都是建立独立的机构。
金融风暴带来三大启示
美国次贷危机给国际化业务已具相当规模的中资银行带了一定的损失。有关人士指出，由于我国金融改革的滞后性和国内市场的非理性，金融创新理应减缓步伐，甚至更有人认为股指期货和融资融券不宜即时推出。
金融创新要继续
长江证券分析师苏冬认则认为，次贷危机引起大家对金融安全的忧虑是正常的，但不能因噎废食，成为中国推迟金融创新的一个借口。美国发生次贷危机是因为金融衍生工具中杠杆使用过度，属于“过犹不及”，而中国却相反，金融衍生工具严重缺乏，极大制约了资本市场的融资、价格发现及其它功能。正是缺少了诸如股指期货这样的工具，中国证券市场才表现出暴涨暴跌的弊端。 花旗银行（中国）有限公司商业银行部总经理张之皓认同此说法。他指出，现在中国的钱全部由银行口子出去，极大地加剧了银行的风险，企业、居民、宏观经济、外汇所有不好的因素都反应在银行的账目上，一旦银行发生危机，后果不堪设想。因此，应加快资本市场的金融创新，让股市、银行、私募基金、保险都能发挥相应的资产配置功能，而不要让银行变成万能的“神”。
杠杆泡沫要不得
“为何次贷危机中最先倒闭是投行，而不是商业银行。这是因为投行的利润源泉是杠杆，而房地产也是使用杠杆最多的行业，当遇到危机，杠杆是很脆弱的，因此投行的亏损急剧放大，最后只能面临破产。”张之皓告诉记者。国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松认为，从国际经济环境看，美国经济金融体系在此之前是一个靠杠杆放大不断推动泡沫形成的过程。
据悉，一般银行的资本充足率要在8％以上，相当于12.5倍的杠杆，华尔街投行的杠杆却到了30倍，这是史无前例的。美林的杠杆率从2003年的15倍飙升至去年的28倍，摩根士丹利达33倍，高盛亦有28倍。史无前例的30倍杠杆意味着什么？赚1％相当于30％股本金的回报，但风险来了后，亏损3.3％即意味着破产。
风险管理要加强
中山大学岭南学院金融系主任陆军则认为，从这次倒闭或被兼并的金融机构来看，金融机构特别是投行在信用风险、市场风险、流动性风险以及资产集中风险的管理方面，内部控制上都有严重缺失。对中外金融机构来说，都需要改进对各类风险的评估；要有一套严格的风险管理的政策与程序；对市场风险与流动性风险要做压力测试；加强资本充足率管理；对各种可能风险出现后要有处理的预案。
Buffett says economy needs immediate help
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the nation has been hit with an "economic Pearl Harbor," and the government must respond quickly.
Buffett talked about the nation's ongoing financial woes in an appearance on the "The Charlie Rose Show" that aired Wednesday night on PBS stations.
"This really is an economic Pearl Harbor," Buffett said. "That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one."
Buffett's spokeswoman did not immediately respond to messages left Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.
Buffett said the nation's economic problems are already starting to be felt by furniture and jewelry stores such as the ones owned by Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
The billionaire predicts that the rest of the "Main Street" economy will start to have problems if the government's financial bailout plan doesn't pass Congress soon.
"In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now," the 78-year-old Buffett said.
The fear in the marketplace has allowed Buffett to make several sizable investments over the past month in proven companies that needed cash quickly. And Berkshire, which had $31.2 billion cash on hand at the end of June, was ready to invest because, Buffett says, he always tries to be greedy when others are fearful.
But Buffett said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday that if Congress doesn't approve the bailout plan soon, then "I will have done some dumb things."
Berkshire, based in Omaha, Neb., announced Wednesday afternoon it would buy $3 billion of preferred shares of General Electric Co., which carry a 10 percent dividend. The terms are similar to those Buffett struck with Goldman Sachs last week when Berkshire invested $5 billion in preferred Goldman Sachs shares with a 10 percent dividend.
Berkshire also has the option to buy $3 billion worth of GE common shares for $22.25 each and an additional $5 billion in Goldman Sachs common stock for $115 per share at any time over five years.
Buffett said he was approached about the GE investment Wednesday morning by someone at Goldman. And Buffett quickly decided to invest in GE because he's familiar with the company and confident in its long-term prospects.
"It was an attractive investment," Buffett said.
Both GE and Goldman appeared to want Buffett's endorsement of their companies as much as Berkshire Hathaway's cash, so they were willing to grant concessions. Morningstar analyst Justin Fuller said Berkshire will receive $800 million a year in dividends on the preferred stock in GE and Goldman for at least the next three years.
"The terms for Berkshire are just incredibly attractive," Fuller said.
Investment fund manager Whitney Tilson, who founded T2 Partners LLC, said Buffett's backing may help Goldman and GE regain the market's confidence, and that may prove crucial.
"This is a market where companies have literally gone under because of a lack of confidence," Tilson said.
Buffett and his company will certainly benefit if Congress passes the $700 billion bailout plan. But he told Charlie Rose that the main beneficiary of the bailout will be the U.S. economy, not Wall Street or investors like him.
Buffett compared the U.S. economy to a top athlete who has suffered a sudden and severe heart attack. He said the proper response to such a heart attack is to use a defibrillator as soon as possible, not argue about the precise placement of the paddles or argue about whether the athlete should have taken blood pressure medication beforehand.
And Buffett said taxpayers will eventually turn a profit on the $700 billion plan if the bailout passes and the U.S. government buys mortgage debt at market prices.
"We are not spending the money. If we buy these assets intelligently, the United States Treasury will make money," Buffett said.
But Buffett warned that taxpayers shouldn't expect immediate results from the bailout plan, because it may take several years for the economy to recover.
"The recession is going to get worse," Buffett said. "I don't want to hold out false hopes that -- by some magic bullet -- that things will turn around in a couple months."
Buffett has said for several months that the economy is in a recession because most Americans aren't doing as well today as before. The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product.
Buffett talked about the nation's ongoing financial woes in an appearance on the "The Charlie Rose Show" that aired Wednesday night on PBS stations.
"This really is an economic Pearl Harbor," Buffett said. "That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one."
Buffett's spokeswoman did not immediately respond to messages left Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.
Buffett said the nation's economic problems are already starting to be felt by furniture and jewelry stores such as the ones owned by Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
The billionaire predicts that the rest of the "Main Street" economy will start to have problems if the government's financial bailout plan doesn't pass Congress soon.
"In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now," the 78-year-old Buffett said.
The fear in the marketplace has allowed Buffett to make several sizable investments over the past month in proven companies that needed cash quickly. And Berkshire, which had $31.2 billion cash on hand at the end of June, was ready to invest because, Buffett says, he always tries to be greedy when others are fearful.
But Buffett said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday that if Congress doesn't approve the bailout plan soon, then "I will have done some dumb things."
Berkshire, based in Omaha, Neb., announced Wednesday afternoon it would buy $3 billion of preferred shares of General Electric Co., which carry a 10 percent dividend. The terms are similar to those Buffett struck with Goldman Sachs last week when Berkshire invested $5 billion in preferred Goldman Sachs shares with a 10 percent dividend.
Berkshire also has the option to buy $3 billion worth of GE common shares for $22.25 each and an additional $5 billion in Goldman Sachs common stock for $115 per share at any time over five years.
Buffett said he was approached about the GE investment Wednesday morning by someone at Goldman. And Buffett quickly decided to invest in GE because he's familiar with the company and confident in its long-term prospects.
"It was an attractive investment," Buffett said.
Both GE and Goldman appeared to want Buffett's endorsement of their companies as much as Berkshire Hathaway's cash, so they were willing to grant concessions. Morningstar analyst Justin Fuller said Berkshire will receive $800 million a year in dividends on the preferred stock in GE and Goldman for at least the next three years.
"The terms for Berkshire are just incredibly attractive," Fuller said.
Investment fund manager Whitney Tilson, who founded T2 Partners LLC, said Buffett's backing may help Goldman and GE regain the market's confidence, and that may prove crucial.
"This is a market where companies have literally gone under because of a lack of confidence," Tilson said.
Buffett and his company will certainly benefit if Congress passes the $700 billion bailout plan. But he told Charlie Rose that the main beneficiary of the bailout will be the U.S. economy, not Wall Street or investors like him.
Buffett compared the U.S. economy to a top athlete who has suffered a sudden and severe heart attack. He said the proper response to such a heart attack is to use a defibrillator as soon as possible, not argue about the precise placement of the paddles or argue about whether the athlete should have taken blood pressure medication beforehand.
And Buffett said taxpayers will eventually turn a profit on the $700 billion plan if the bailout passes and the U.S. government buys mortgage debt at market prices.
"We are not spending the money. If we buy these assets intelligently, the United States Treasury will make money," Buffett said.
But Buffett warned that taxpayers shouldn't expect immediate results from the bailout plan, because it may take several years for the economy to recover.
"The recession is going to get worse," Buffett said. "I don't want to hold out false hopes that -- by some magic bullet -- that things will turn around in a couple months."
Buffett has said for several months that the economy is in a recession because most Americans aren't doing as well today as before. The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product.
投资的秘密——眼光+耐心+运气
投资的秘密往往是秘而不宣的。但这并不妨碍人们公开讨论投资的秘密。在对这个问题的公开讨论中，也可谓仁者见仁，智者见智。有没有带共性性质的成功的秘密呢？据我十多年的股票投资经验，答案是有，而且我还认为还可以把投资成功的秘密简单地概括为四个字——眼光+耐心。当然，或许这只是占九成。也许还有一层，那就是运气。
关于眼光
在西方的记载史中，最早因有眼光而赚得大钱的恐怕首先要数古希腊的哲学家泰勒斯。据亚里士多德的《政治学》载，泰勒斯因为精通天象，有年冬天发现来年橄榄要丰收，就订租了许多榨橄榄油的榨油器，来年又租出去，赚了一大笔钱。“泰勒斯眼光”也因此而名垂青史。
或许可以这样说，眼光就是对事物变化的洞见。
在股票世界中，我常常把眼光定义为“发现自己能把握的将会上涨的股票”。人们用很多种方法发现去“将会上涨的股票”，其中有基本分析方面的，也有技术分析方面的，还有市场分析方面的。比如，认为股价低于每股股东权益，且愈低愈好。这里，每股股东价权益=每股净资产+每股资本公积金+每股未分配利润。也就是说“两高一低”（两高：高净资产、高未分配利润；一低：低市价）的股票，具有投资价值。又如，股票总市值低于股票内在价值，且愈低愈好。还如，年投资收益率高于银行存款利率的个股，且愈高愈好。每年的分红除以股价即可得到年投资收益率。这主要考察公司的分红记录后作出今后分红的预测。以上都是有可能上涨的股票。显然，懂一点财会知识，可以帮助我们发现那些将会上涨的股票。在技术分析、市场分析中也还有很多种方法。
帮助我们发现将会上涨的股票，远远不等于就能发现将会上涨的股票。甚至于可以这样说，即使你把以上关于帮助我们发现将会上涨的股票的所有知识，即基本分析、技术分析、市场分析的理论倒背如流，你可能发现的将会是长期盘整或者是下跌的股票，而不是将会上涨的股票。在我看来，发现将会上涨的股票更多的是靠个人的直觉。这种直觉不是偶尔心血来潮的结果，而是长期实战经验积累后对市场的悟性或灵性。这里，“长期”是一个比较宽泛的概念：五年、十年甚至是十多年。除非是超级天才，我想至少得需要五、六年以上。也就是说，一个人至少得需要五、六年时间，才有可能培养起自己对股票的直觉。不怕露丑，我对股票产生直觉起码在十年以上，这还不包括我先前有二、三十多年学习和钻研财经的时间。当然，这可能是因为自己头脑太笨的缘故。
另一方面，在将会上涨的股票中，可以说很多都不是某个个人自己“能把握的”。在很多情况下，即使我们发现了那些将会上涨的股票，甚至重仓或满仓买进了会上涨的股票，但在它上涨前或刚刚上涨时，我们就卖掉了它。这些都是不属于自己“能把握的”。我曾经有篇标题叫《黑马似梦》的文章，说的就是这种情况。如果世界上真有缘分存在的话，那么这些股票都是属于那种有缘无分的股票。
椐我的经验，那种自己能把握的将会上涨的股票或者说有缘有分的股票，少得可怜。如果说，在所有的股票中，将会上涨的股票只占20%的话，那么，自己能把握的将会上涨的股票又只占你所发现的将会上涨的股票总数中的20%左右，甚至于还不足20%。
为什么呢？因为要发现“自己能把握的”股票，需要认识自己，特别是战胜自己，而这是很难的事情。俗话说，“人贵有自知之明”。我发现，在这个世界上，真有自知之明的人，是很少的，正因为少所以“贵”，即很珍贵的，很宝贵。人有自知之明就很贵，那就更别说有“自胜之明”了。
p; 我觉得，“将会上涨的股票”，对于一位理性的投资者来说，是不难发现的。因此，在这个定义中，后者比前者重要得多，也困难得多。换句话说，在发现“自己能把握的”与发现“将会上涨的股票”中，我觉得最难的是“自己能把握的”。
关于耐心
在一个营销报告会现场的舞台的正中央的位置上，吊着一个巨大的铁球，舞台上放了几种大小不同的铁锤。一位老者介绍了用铁锤把大铁球敲打得荡起来的规则。很快就有两位年轻人抡起大铁锤砸向大铁球。但大铁球却无动于衷。没敲几下，两位年轻人就累得大汗淋漓、气喘吁吁。当人们认为再怎样敲打也无济于事时，那位老者拿起一把小铁锤，对准大铁球敲打起来。敲一下，停一下，敲敲停停，很有节奏。人们觉得奇怪，用铁锤尚不能把大铁球敲打得荡起来，难道用小铁锤能把大铁球敲打得荡起来?时间慢慢地过去，十分钟、二十分钟、三十分钟，台下的人们开始失去耐性，躁动起来，还有不少人开始离场。但那位老者却仍在那里一锤又一锤地敲打铁球，全神贯注的态度依然如旧。大概四十分钟后，一位前排的观众突然大叫起来——— “球动了！”人们果真发现在小锤的不断敲打下，大铁球开始摆动起来，而且摆动的幅度不小，连吊球的架子都发出了声响。这声响虽然不大，但却震撼了看众们的心灵。
最后老者开口了。他只说了一句话：在成功的道路上，你有没有耐心去等待成功的降临？如果不能，你只好用一生的耐心去面对失败了。
我觉得，生活需要耐心，股市更需要耐心。在股市中，每年都有80%以上的人像舞台上的那些年轻人抡起几大锤之后便告放弃一样，这些人都只是股市中的匆匆过客。像那位老者那样简单而不失耐心地敲打的股民，也就是说能够打动股市这只“铁球”的股民，实在不多。
这里，有必要把恒心从耐心中分离出来。一般而言，恒心是指那种时间持续得长一些的耐心。据我的经验，别说发展，就是我们要在在股市中生存下来，似乎更需要恒心。
有必要讲一件真人真事。很久以前，在荷兰的一个小镇上来了一位只有初中文化的青年农民，他的差事是替镇政府看守大门。这个青年业余时间不下棋打牌，也不喝酒聊天，而是选择了打磨镜片的爱好。虽然磨镜片又费时又费工，可他却乐此不疲。就这样他磨呀磨，在枯燥和乏味中一磨就是60年！在这60年中，他一直是做门卫，一直是磨镜片，甚至从没有出过这个小镇，然而正是他的专心和锲而不舍，他磨出的复合镜片的放大倍数竟然超过了当地专业的技师。凭借自己磨研的镜片，他发明了显微镜，揭开了当时科技尚未知晓的微生物世界的面纱。结果他名声大震，被授予巴黎科学院院士头衔。英国女王访问荷兰时，还专程到小镇去拜访过他。他就是荷兰的著名科学家列文虎克。
没有接受过高等教育的列文虎克之所以能够取得成功，道理很简单，就是选择了自己的方向以后，用自己的耐心和毅力几十年如一日地走下去。其实股市投资又何尝不是这样呢？假如你有足够的耐心并能够持之以恒，你同样可以取得成功。
巴菲特讲过的几句话值得投资人永远记住：“钱在这里从活跃的投资者流向有耐心的投资者。许多精力旺盛的有进取心的投资人的财富渐渐消失。”他还这样描述过他的长期持有理念：“如果你没有持有一种股票10年的准备，那么连10分钟都不要持有这种股票。”“巴菲特购买一种股票绝不在意来年就能赚多少钱，而是在意它未来5至10年能赚多少钱。”他常说的一句口头禅是：“拥有一只股票，期待它下个星期就上涨是十分愚蠢的”。
上，很多股民拥有一只股票，期待它上涨的时间不是下个星期，而是明天，甚至于上午买进，期待它下午就能上涨。这种没有耐心或者缺少耐心的想法，几乎注定了一个人投资的失败生涯。
耐心：在熊市中筑就股市涅槃
耐心，我认为是在熊市中筑就的股市涅槃。
牛市是令人快乐的，这种快乐不仅不会给人带来耐心，往往会膨胀人的野心。也就是说，熊市才是股市涅槃的土壤，才是耐心存在的条件。
在股市的熊市中，股价一个劲地直朝下垮，人心会咋样？人心都是肉长的，我想开始都会很心痛。这有点象歌利王用刀割释迦牟尼佛或忍辱仙人那样。只不过忍辱仙人被割的是肉，而股民此时被割的是心。在这个时候，忍辱仙人不生瞋恨，而我们往往会生瞋恨，比如会骂天、骂地、骂人。这是一种经历，是一种体验，其实也是一种修炼，甚至可以说更是一种修炼。
据记载，释迦牟尼佛曾说：“我前生为忍辱仙人。那个时候歌利王出来打猎，带了不少宫娥彩女。他打猎之后睡了个午觉。这些宫娥彩女没有事就出来转转玩。只见有一个青年男子在那里打座，很庄严很清净。有人过去问他在做什么，他就回答说打座。问他为啥要打座，他说了点道理。大家觉得他的话很有道理，便请教他，他也给大家解释。这样一来，人越听越多，很多人都围过来，听他说法。歌利王睡醒觉后一看，宫娥彩女都不在了，唉！大吃一惊，于是去找，发现都围着一个青年男子，坐在那听他说法。这时，歌利王作为男人的那种嫉妒心就燃起来了。
“你是干什么的？什么妖鬼？你敢调戏引诱我的妇女。”
“我哪里是引诱，是她们自己来找我，听我讲话的……”
“你是干什么的？”
“我在修忍辱，我是忍辱仙人。”
“你修忍辱？那我拉你一刀你忍不忍？”
“你拉我一刀，我，无我相无人相，不生瞋恨。”
于是歌利王给他一刀，拉下一块肉：“你恨不恨？”
“不恨！”歌利王再拉一刀，“不恨！”于是就开始了节节肢解……
《金刚经》里谈到了这个具体的事例。节节肢解之后，歌利王看这个忍辱仙人始终不生瞋恨，才明白佛真的是这样的大慈大悲。
怎样才不会生瞋恨呢？当我们经历过多次熊市后，也就是说经过多次修炼的我们，可能会与以往有些不同，比如说再也不会那样心痛了，这时我们也就不大瞋恨了。有句股谚叫“新股民怕跌，老股民怕涨”，言下之意老股民是不大怕跌的。到这时，老股民就真的有点象忍辱仙人或释迦牟尼佛了。
为啥呢？我觉得是因为我们修成了股市涅槃。涅槃是佛学术语，大意就是彼岸，它不增不减，不垢不净。涅槃分为有余涅槃和无余涅槃。有余涅槃是罗汉境界，不彻底；无余涅槃是佛境界，是非常彻底的。在股市中，我们就是修成了不彻底的有余涅槃也很不错。
我认识一位刘姓股民，我估计他已经修成了股市涅槃。他在“网易”上市后不久满仓购买了网易股票，买价大概是15美元左右。买后网易股价就一路下跌，用他的话叫“一江春水向东流”，不时还来点暴跌，他叫“飞流直下三千尺”，最低的时候网易股价还跌到过0.60美元，但刘姓股民还是哈哈连天，用他的话说叫“早就习惯了”。今年网易股价狂涨到70多美元时，刘姓股民还是哈哈连天，无动于衷。这不是股市涅槃又能是啥呢？
筑就了股市涅槃的人多半是一个寂寞、孤独的人。或者说，一个有耐心的人，肯定是一个耐得住寂寞、耐得住孤独的人。“自古圣贤皆寂寞”，“从来高人多孤独”。与多数人害怕或恐惧寂寞、孤独不同，《乌合之众》一书讲到要如何体会孤独的快乐。其实，我也觉得孤独是一种特殊的力量。如果你体会到了孤独感并且体会到了孤独感是快乐的，那么恭喜你，你的心灵是一定是强大的。在股市这个嘈杂的市场里，是最应该自守孤独的地方。请记住：知止而后能定，定而后能静，静而后能安，安而后能虑，虑而后能得。是否可以这样说，一个成功的投资人必须是一个耐得住寂寞、耐得住孤独的人。”
眼光和耐心谁更重要
其实，我觉得这个问题似乎没有多大的意义。因为，在我的眼里，眼光和耐心并不是截然分开的。眼光中的自己“能把握的” 含义中，实际上已经隐含了耐心这一前提。自己不能把握，怎么可能会握有耐心呢？而耐心似乎又必须以眼光为条件。换句话说，如果一个人鼠目寸光，他只会看重眼前的利益，这样的人会具有耐心么？
如果硬要将眼光和耐心区别开来，那么我认为两者比较起来，耐心是最重要的。甚至于可以这样说，与眼光比较起来，耐心要占到七、八分以上，有时甚至要占到九分以上。也就是说，投资的成败与否，主要取决于一个人是否具有耐心。
还是在2001年，我在发现大盘见顶的同时，很容易地发现了上海机场的投资价值，并以此在“上海热线”网上发表过《买只股票跳舞去，管它冬夏与春秋》（上海热线2002年5月15日），在《新证券》报纸和《金融市场》杂志上发表了《我的半次操作》，在我的《股市野狐禅》专著等书或文章中，都公开说过自己满仓买进了机场转债，可以毫不谦虚地说，这是有眼光的。不过，只赚了百分之十左右，我就陆续卖光了它。但至今上证指数下跌了近千点，上海机场却翻了一倍多。显然，这是缺少耐心的缘故。在我的股民经历中，我发现了不少牛股，但真有耐心持有者，很少很少。观察我身边的股民及股友，有眼光的不少，但有耐心的却很少，有恒心者那就少得可怜了。这就是说，有十年以上股龄的股民，只是凤毛麟角的了。
如果你想投资，永远得记住这个公式：眼光+耐心。你当然得训练眼光，但更得筑就耐心。至于运气，那是可遇而不可求的。
关于眼光
在西方的记载史中，最早因有眼光而赚得大钱的恐怕首先要数古希腊的哲学家泰勒斯。据亚里士多德的《政治学》载，泰勒斯因为精通天象，有年冬天发现来年橄榄要丰收，就订租了许多榨橄榄油的榨油器，来年又租出去，赚了一大笔钱。“泰勒斯眼光”也因此而名垂青史。
或许可以这样说，眼光就是对事物变化的洞见。
在股票世界中，我常常把眼光定义为“发现自己能把握的将会上涨的股票”。人们用很多种方法发现去“将会上涨的股票”，其中有基本分析方面的，也有技术分析方面的，还有市场分析方面的。比如，认为股价低于每股股东权益，且愈低愈好。这里，每股股东价权益=每股净资产+每股资本公积金+每股未分配利润。也就是说“两高一低”（两高：高净资产、高未分配利润；一低：低市价）的股票，具有投资价值。又如，股票总市值低于股票内在价值，且愈低愈好。还如，年投资收益率高于银行存款利率的个股，且愈高愈好。每年的分红除以股价即可得到年投资收益率。这主要考察公司的分红记录后作出今后分红的预测。以上都是有可能上涨的股票。显然，懂一点财会知识，可以帮助我们发现那些将会上涨的股票。在技术分析、市场分析中也还有很多种方法。
帮助我们发现将会上涨的股票，远远不等于就能发现将会上涨的股票。甚至于可以这样说，即使你把以上关于帮助我们发现将会上涨的股票的所有知识，即基本分析、技术分析、市场分析的理论倒背如流，你可能发现的将会是长期盘整或者是下跌的股票，而不是将会上涨的股票。在我看来，发现将会上涨的股票更多的是靠个人的直觉。这种直觉不是偶尔心血来潮的结果，而是长期实战经验积累后对市场的悟性或灵性。这里，“长期”是一个比较宽泛的概念：五年、十年甚至是十多年。除非是超级天才，我想至少得需要五、六年以上。也就是说，一个人至少得需要五、六年时间，才有可能培养起自己对股票的直觉。不怕露丑，我对股票产生直觉起码在十年以上，这还不包括我先前有二、三十多年学习和钻研财经的时间。当然，这可能是因为自己头脑太笨的缘故。
另一方面，在将会上涨的股票中，可以说很多都不是某个个人自己“能把握的”。在很多情况下，即使我们发现了那些将会上涨的股票，甚至重仓或满仓买进了会上涨的股票，但在它上涨前或刚刚上涨时，我们就卖掉了它。这些都是不属于自己“能把握的”。我曾经有篇标题叫《黑马似梦》的文章，说的就是这种情况。如果世界上真有缘分存在的话，那么这些股票都是属于那种有缘无分的股票。
椐我的经验，那种自己能把握的将会上涨的股票或者说有缘有分的股票，少得可怜。如果说，在所有的股票中，将会上涨的股票只占20%的话，那么，自己能把握的将会上涨的股票又只占你所发现的将会上涨的股票总数中的20%左右，甚至于还不足20%。
为什么呢？因为要发现“自己能把握的”股票，需要认识自己，特别是战胜自己，而这是很难的事情。俗话说，“人贵有自知之明”。我发现，在这个世界上，真有自知之明的人，是很少的，正因为少所以“贵”，即很珍贵的，很宝贵。人有自知之明就很贵，那就更别说有“自胜之明”了。
p; 我觉得，“将会上涨的股票”，对于一位理性的投资者来说，是不难发现的。因此，在这个定义中，后者比前者重要得多，也困难得多。换句话说，在发现“自己能把握的”与发现“将会上涨的股票”中，我觉得最难的是“自己能把握的”。
关于耐心
在一个营销报告会现场的舞台的正中央的位置上，吊着一个巨大的铁球，舞台上放了几种大小不同的铁锤。一位老者介绍了用铁锤把大铁球敲打得荡起来的规则。很快就有两位年轻人抡起大铁锤砸向大铁球。但大铁球却无动于衷。没敲几下，两位年轻人就累得大汗淋漓、气喘吁吁。当人们认为再怎样敲打也无济于事时，那位老者拿起一把小铁锤，对准大铁球敲打起来。敲一下，停一下，敲敲停停，很有节奏。人们觉得奇怪，用铁锤尚不能把大铁球敲打得荡起来，难道用小铁锤能把大铁球敲打得荡起来?时间慢慢地过去，十分钟、二十分钟、三十分钟，台下的人们开始失去耐性，躁动起来，还有不少人开始离场。但那位老者却仍在那里一锤又一锤地敲打铁球，全神贯注的态度依然如旧。大概四十分钟后，一位前排的观众突然大叫起来——— “球动了！”人们果真发现在小锤的不断敲打下，大铁球开始摆动起来，而且摆动的幅度不小，连吊球的架子都发出了声响。这声响虽然不大，但却震撼了看众们的心灵。
最后老者开口了。他只说了一句话：在成功的道路上，你有没有耐心去等待成功的降临？如果不能，你只好用一生的耐心去面对失败了。
我觉得，生活需要耐心，股市更需要耐心。在股市中，每年都有80%以上的人像舞台上的那些年轻人抡起几大锤之后便告放弃一样，这些人都只是股市中的匆匆过客。像那位老者那样简单而不失耐心地敲打的股民，也就是说能够打动股市这只“铁球”的股民，实在不多。
这里，有必要把恒心从耐心中分离出来。一般而言，恒心是指那种时间持续得长一些的耐心。据我的经验，别说发展，就是我们要在在股市中生存下来，似乎更需要恒心。
有必要讲一件真人真事。很久以前，在荷兰的一个小镇上来了一位只有初中文化的青年农民，他的差事是替镇政府看守大门。这个青年业余时间不下棋打牌，也不喝酒聊天，而是选择了打磨镜片的爱好。虽然磨镜片又费时又费工，可他却乐此不疲。就这样他磨呀磨，在枯燥和乏味中一磨就是60年！在这60年中，他一直是做门卫，一直是磨镜片，甚至从没有出过这个小镇，然而正是他的专心和锲而不舍，他磨出的复合镜片的放大倍数竟然超过了当地专业的技师。凭借自己磨研的镜片，他发明了显微镜，揭开了当时科技尚未知晓的微生物世界的面纱。结果他名声大震，被授予巴黎科学院院士头衔。英国女王访问荷兰时，还专程到小镇去拜访过他。他就是荷兰的著名科学家列文虎克。
没有接受过高等教育的列文虎克之所以能够取得成功，道理很简单，就是选择了自己的方向以后，用自己的耐心和毅力几十年如一日地走下去。其实股市投资又何尝不是这样呢？假如你有足够的耐心并能够持之以恒，你同样可以取得成功。
巴菲特讲过的几句话值得投资人永远记住：“钱在这里从活跃的投资者流向有耐心的投资者。许多精力旺盛的有进取心的投资人的财富渐渐消失。”他还这样描述过他的长期持有理念：“如果你没有持有一种股票10年的准备，那么连10分钟都不要持有这种股票。”“巴菲特购买一种股票绝不在意来年就能赚多少钱，而是在意它未来5至10年能赚多少钱。”他常说的一句口头禅是：“拥有一只股票，期待它下个星期就上涨是十分愚蠢的”。
上，很多股民拥有一只股票，期待它上涨的时间不是下个星期，而是明天，甚至于上午买进，期待它下午就能上涨。这种没有耐心或者缺少耐心的想法，几乎注定了一个人投资的失败生涯。
耐心：在熊市中筑就股市涅槃
耐心，我认为是在熊市中筑就的股市涅槃。
牛市是令人快乐的，这种快乐不仅不会给人带来耐心，往往会膨胀人的野心。也就是说，熊市才是股市涅槃的土壤，才是耐心存在的条件。
在股市的熊市中，股价一个劲地直朝下垮，人心会咋样？人心都是肉长的，我想开始都会很心痛。这有点象歌利王用刀割释迦牟尼佛或忍辱仙人那样。只不过忍辱仙人被割的是肉，而股民此时被割的是心。在这个时候，忍辱仙人不生瞋恨，而我们往往会生瞋恨，比如会骂天、骂地、骂人。这是一种经历，是一种体验，其实也是一种修炼，甚至可以说更是一种修炼。
据记载，释迦牟尼佛曾说：“我前生为忍辱仙人。那个时候歌利王出来打猎，带了不少宫娥彩女。他打猎之后睡了个午觉。这些宫娥彩女没有事就出来转转玩。只见有一个青年男子在那里打座，很庄严很清净。有人过去问他在做什么，他就回答说打座。问他为啥要打座，他说了点道理。大家觉得他的话很有道理，便请教他，他也给大家解释。这样一来，人越听越多，很多人都围过来，听他说法。歌利王睡醒觉后一看，宫娥彩女都不在了，唉！大吃一惊，于是去找，发现都围着一个青年男子，坐在那听他说法。这时，歌利王作为男人的那种嫉妒心就燃起来了。
“你是干什么的？什么妖鬼？你敢调戏引诱我的妇女。”
“我哪里是引诱，是她们自己来找我，听我讲话的……”
“你是干什么的？”
“我在修忍辱，我是忍辱仙人。”
“你修忍辱？那我拉你一刀你忍不忍？”
“你拉我一刀，我，无我相无人相，不生瞋恨。”
于是歌利王给他一刀，拉下一块肉：“你恨不恨？”
“不恨！”歌利王再拉一刀，“不恨！”于是就开始了节节肢解……
《金刚经》里谈到了这个具体的事例。节节肢解之后，歌利王看这个忍辱仙人始终不生瞋恨，才明白佛真的是这样的大慈大悲。
怎样才不会生瞋恨呢？当我们经历过多次熊市后，也就是说经过多次修炼的我们，可能会与以往有些不同，比如说再也不会那样心痛了，这时我们也就不大瞋恨了。有句股谚叫“新股民怕跌，老股民怕涨”，言下之意老股民是不大怕跌的。到这时，老股民就真的有点象忍辱仙人或释迦牟尼佛了。
为啥呢？我觉得是因为我们修成了股市涅槃。涅槃是佛学术语，大意就是彼岸，它不增不减，不垢不净。涅槃分为有余涅槃和无余涅槃。有余涅槃是罗汉境界，不彻底；无余涅槃是佛境界，是非常彻底的。在股市中，我们就是修成了不彻底的有余涅槃也很不错。
我认识一位刘姓股民，我估计他已经修成了股市涅槃。他在“网易”上市后不久满仓购买了网易股票，买价大概是15美元左右。买后网易股价就一路下跌，用他的话叫“一江春水向东流”，不时还来点暴跌，他叫“飞流直下三千尺”，最低的时候网易股价还跌到过0.60美元，但刘姓股民还是哈哈连天，用他的话说叫“早就习惯了”。今年网易股价狂涨到70多美元时，刘姓股民还是哈哈连天，无动于衷。这不是股市涅槃又能是啥呢？
筑就了股市涅槃的人多半是一个寂寞、孤独的人。或者说，一个有耐心的人，肯定是一个耐得住寂寞、耐得住孤独的人。“自古圣贤皆寂寞”，“从来高人多孤独”。与多数人害怕或恐惧寂寞、孤独不同，《乌合之众》一书讲到要如何体会孤独的快乐。其实，我也觉得孤独是一种特殊的力量。如果你体会到了孤独感并且体会到了孤独感是快乐的，那么恭喜你，你的心灵是一定是强大的。在股市这个嘈杂的市场里，是最应该自守孤独的地方。请记住：知止而后能定，定而后能静，静而后能安，安而后能虑，虑而后能得。是否可以这样说，一个成功的投资人必须是一个耐得住寂寞、耐得住孤独的人。”
眼光和耐心谁更重要
其实，我觉得这个问题似乎没有多大的意义。因为，在我的眼里，眼光和耐心并不是截然分开的。眼光中的自己“能把握的” 含义中，实际上已经隐含了耐心这一前提。自己不能把握，怎么可能会握有耐心呢？而耐心似乎又必须以眼光为条件。换句话说，如果一个人鼠目寸光，他只会看重眼前的利益，这样的人会具有耐心么？
如果硬要将眼光和耐心区别开来，那么我认为两者比较起来，耐心是最重要的。甚至于可以这样说，与眼光比较起来，耐心要占到七、八分以上，有时甚至要占到九分以上。也就是说，投资的成败与否，主要取决于一个人是否具有耐心。
还是在2001年，我在发现大盘见顶的同时，很容易地发现了上海机场的投资价值，并以此在“上海热线”网上发表过《买只股票跳舞去，管它冬夏与春秋》（上海热线2002年5月15日），在《新证券》报纸和《金融市场》杂志上发表了《我的半次操作》，在我的《股市野狐禅》专著等书或文章中，都公开说过自己满仓买进了机场转债，可以毫不谦虚地说，这是有眼光的。不过，只赚了百分之十左右，我就陆续卖光了它。但至今上证指数下跌了近千点，上海机场却翻了一倍多。显然，这是缺少耐心的缘故。在我的股民经历中，我发现了不少牛股，但真有耐心持有者，很少很少。观察我身边的股民及股友，有眼光的不少，但有耐心的却很少，有恒心者那就少得可怜了。这就是说，有十年以上股龄的股民，只是凤毛麟角的了。
如果你想投资，永远得记住这个公式：眼光+耐心。你当然得训练眼光，但更得筑就耐心。至于运气，那是可遇而不可求的。
股市中70%的人赔钱的必然性及合理性
经济学里有一个 abc 法则，它是由意大利经济学家“巴雷特”发明、发现的。
巴雷特在研究资本主义社会的财富分配时发现这样一个规律：即，占全社会 10 — 20 的少数人（富人），共拥有整个社会财富的 60 — 70 （称 a 类人），占全社会 60 — 70 的多数人（穷人），共拥有整个社会财富的 10 — 20 （称 c 类人），另外 20% 左右的人（中产阶级）则拥有整个社会财富的 20% 左右（称 b 类人）。这是社会规律，不可改变。或者说，总体比例或许会有些许差别，但大的规律不会变化。这种规律，也是健康社会发展的基础。
我们国家在中提出平均主义，共同富裕，妄想违背这一规律，结果把经济搞的一塌糊，不但没有共富，反而使共穷！而改革开放后，尤其是目前，我们国家在社会财富的占有上，实际上也在向上述规律靠拢！而这种富人、穷人、中产阶级占有社会财富的巨大差异性规律被遵守，也是导致我们国家近些年经济快速发展的一个重要原因！
以上我们讲的abc分类法，后来人们发现，在经济、管理、财务等很多领域的很多现象，都符合这一规律。比如。构成汽车的零部件有成千上万种，但其中有 10 — 20% 零件（少数贵重零件），它们的成本却占整个汽车成本的 60 — 70% （属 a 类零件），其中 60 — 70% 零件（多数小零件），它们的成本却占整个汽车成本的 10 — 20% （属 c 类零件），另外的 20% 属 b 类零件。企业为了降低汽车成本，肯定应重点管理 a 类零件，其次是 b 类， c 类则不应成为重点管理对象。等等。
在股市中，投资者的盈亏也同样遵循这一规律： 10 — 20% 的人挣钱（ a 类人）， 20% 左右的人保本（ b 类人）， 60 — 70% 的人赔钱（ c 类人）。这是铁的规律，不符合这样规律的股市，就不是正常的股市，这样的股市阶段也就不可能维持长久！而符合这样规律的股市才是正常的股市。当然，某一年行情好挣钱的人可能高于这个比例，某一年行情不好挣钱的人可能低于这个比例，但平均起来必然符合。再换句话说，如果我们在抽查股市投资者挣赔得时候，如果你所取得样本研究周期较短，则可能会出现“该阶段时间股市挣钱的人的比例更高”的现象。但是，如果我们把研究周期取得长一点，如5年、8年，则上述的规律就是必然的。
也正因为如此，所以，当市场在某段时间导致投资者挣钱很多（很多人在该段时间都挣钱时），则接下来肯定就要出现极其残酷的一段时间，该段时间将会导致很多人大赔、特赔，从而使“连续多年在总体上”，挣钱人、平手的人（略挣略配者）和赔钱人的相互比例关系符合上述的10-20%、20%左右、60-70%这样的合理比例。
我们大家明白了这一规律后，就容易摆正自己的心态了：股市就是一个绝大多数人赔钱的市场、场所，或者说，绝大多数人赔钱是天经地义的。因此，赔了钱不要怨天、怨地，不要骂政府，只能从自己身上找原因，力争做这极少数人。
在大盘目前跌得如此惨重的情况下，目前市场上还有众多的咨询机构、专业人士及众多的投资者还坚持认为“目前的市场还是牛市，是牛市中的一个回调”，很多庸才、蠢才甚至是为股市下跌寻找各种原因，以一般的散户心态，去攻击这、谩骂那。实际上这些庸才、蠢才是根本不懂股市,不懂股市的基本规律。他们的“愚蠢性惯性看多行为”，表面上似乎是为广大散户好，而实际上是在误导广大投资者。
本人的观点是：经过0 6 —0 7 年 的大牛市行情， 80% 以上的个股都已经被炒烂了（惨糟蹂躏）、在相当长的时间内（甚至是4-6 年 ）股价都不可能再创新高了。这么多的股票的股价不能创新高，谈何牛市行情？
当然，个股股价不能创新高，并不是说股市就没行情了。向上不能拓展空间，就向下拓展吗。银广夏深深房 2001 年末、 2002 年初的股价持续暴跌，促成了 2002 年二股的“短期向上翻两倍的涨升行情”。也即，未来的很多年，股市的再上涨行情将是靠“之前的股价连续打幅度下跌”跌出来的。就比如，股价从10元起被暴炒到100元的股票，在该股已经于2007年10月见大顶后，未来在股价已经不可能再创新高的情况下，未来数年的行情将会怎样走？还会不会再有行情？本人的回答是未来各年该股还会有比较大的行情的，只不过，未来各年的上涨行情，将均是靠“股价之前的连续大跌”跌出来的！
以上可以告诉我们两点：（ 1 ）我们不用担心市场以后没行情，中国的股市每年都会有一波挣钱效应很强的行情的；（ 2 ）在靠个股下跌跌出来行情的市场背景下，投资者只有能空仓规避了个股下跌过程中的风险后，做每年的这波行情才有真正意义。
其实，我们从另外一个角度，也可以很好地理解“股市中挣钱者为10-20%、基本持平者为20%左右、赔钱者为60-70%”的科学合理性（较长时间进行考核，而不是考核半年、一年）：
在我们国家（其它国家也大致相同），实业投资者（搞实业的，如搞各类企业），总体上的社会平均投资收益率目前大致为8-12%！也即有个别高一点的也有低一点的，但平均在10%左右。即搞实业，平均看，投资100万，平均看一年可以赚10万元————略高于银行贷款利率（7%）。应该说，从投资的难度、投资变现的难度、投资主体人士的知识结构等等，实业投资要比股市投资难得多，因此，平均看（股市投资的所有投资者的平均收益状况和实业投资所有投资者的总体收益状况对比看），若取一个较长的研究周期，则实业投资的平均收益率是应该高于“股市投资的平均收益率”的。而实业投资的平均收益率才是10%（不可能过高，若过高，就没人往银行存钱了，就都去搞实业去了，也即，实业投资的平均投资收益率平均看就是比银行贷款利率高2-4个百分点是最合理区域），而股市如果一段时间的总体平均收益率若远高于实业投资收益率，那股市在该段时间也就属于“不正常”！即，前面高出的，必然要由后面亏损的来冲减！否则，股市的平均收益率若长期平均看高于社会平均收益率，那谁还去搞实业？
所以，对这些基本的常识性原理，我们投资者要搞清楚。当你搞清楚这些基本原理后，你就不会在为股市的下跌而抱怨，你面对股市的大跌也就会心平气和，你也就会正视股市下跌会给自己带来的风险及合理地重视风险和加强防范风险、不会盲目地一直看多！
当然，股市处于前期大涨后的“还债下跌阶段”，也并不是说股市就挣不到钱，但就如本人前期提到的那样，此时的挣钱，是靠：（1）股市战略性的挖掘！就如本人2月中旬在搏客中给大家挖掘推荐的厦门港务一样（2月中旬至今涨幅已有50%）；（2）靠大盘的严重下跌后的“超跌反抽”来挣钱，比如上周二后市买股，到今天不是很容易挣10%吗？
所以，我们只有正确认识了股市本身的特性、规律性，我们才能达心平气和，才能在股市中长期获取好的收益，而那些每天都处在抱怨这抱怨那得人，成天寄些王于股市天天涨的人，实际上是根本就不懂股市，当然也就难以长期取得好的收益。
巴雷特在研究资本主义社会的财富分配时发现这样一个规律：即，占全社会 10 — 20 的少数人（富人），共拥有整个社会财富的 60 — 70 （称 a 类人），占全社会 60 — 70 的多数人（穷人），共拥有整个社会财富的 10 — 20 （称 c 类人），另外 20% 左右的人（中产阶级）则拥有整个社会财富的 20% 左右（称 b 类人）。这是社会规律，不可改变。或者说，总体比例或许会有些许差别，但大的规律不会变化。这种规律，也是健康社会发展的基础。
我们国家在中提出平均主义，共同富裕，妄想违背这一规律，结果把经济搞的一塌糊，不但没有共富，反而使共穷！而改革开放后，尤其是目前，我们国家在社会财富的占有上，实际上也在向上述规律靠拢！而这种富人、穷人、中产阶级占有社会财富的巨大差异性规律被遵守，也是导致我们国家近些年经济快速发展的一个重要原因！
以上我们讲的abc分类法，后来人们发现，在经济、管理、财务等很多领域的很多现象，都符合这一规律。比如。构成汽车的零部件有成千上万种，但其中有 10 — 20% 零件（少数贵重零件），它们的成本却占整个汽车成本的 60 — 70% （属 a 类零件），其中 60 — 70% 零件（多数小零件），它们的成本却占整个汽车成本的 10 — 20% （属 c 类零件），另外的 20% 属 b 类零件。企业为了降低汽车成本，肯定应重点管理 a 类零件，其次是 b 类， c 类则不应成为重点管理对象。等等。
在股市中，投资者的盈亏也同样遵循这一规律： 10 — 20% 的人挣钱（ a 类人）， 20% 左右的人保本（ b 类人）， 60 — 70% 的人赔钱（ c 类人）。这是铁的规律，不符合这样规律的股市，就不是正常的股市，这样的股市阶段也就不可能维持长久！而符合这样规律的股市才是正常的股市。当然，某一年行情好挣钱的人可能高于这个比例，某一年行情不好挣钱的人可能低于这个比例，但平均起来必然符合。再换句话说，如果我们在抽查股市投资者挣赔得时候，如果你所取得样本研究周期较短，则可能会出现“该阶段时间股市挣钱的人的比例更高”的现象。但是，如果我们把研究周期取得长一点，如5年、8年，则上述的规律就是必然的。
也正因为如此，所以，当市场在某段时间导致投资者挣钱很多（很多人在该段时间都挣钱时），则接下来肯定就要出现极其残酷的一段时间，该段时间将会导致很多人大赔、特赔，从而使“连续多年在总体上”，挣钱人、平手的人（略挣略配者）和赔钱人的相互比例关系符合上述的10-20%、20%左右、60-70%这样的合理比例。
我们大家明白了这一规律后，就容易摆正自己的心态了：股市就是一个绝大多数人赔钱的市场、场所，或者说，绝大多数人赔钱是天经地义的。因此，赔了钱不要怨天、怨地，不要骂政府，只能从自己身上找原因，力争做这极少数人。
在大盘目前跌得如此惨重的情况下，目前市场上还有众多的咨询机构、专业人士及众多的投资者还坚持认为“目前的市场还是牛市，是牛市中的一个回调”，很多庸才、蠢才甚至是为股市下跌寻找各种原因，以一般的散户心态，去攻击这、谩骂那。实际上这些庸才、蠢才是根本不懂股市,不懂股市的基本规律。他们的“愚蠢性惯性看多行为”，表面上似乎是为广大散户好，而实际上是在误导广大投资者。
本人的观点是：经过0 6 —0 7 年 的大牛市行情， 80% 以上的个股都已经被炒烂了（惨糟蹂躏）、在相当长的时间内（甚至是4-6 年 ）股价都不可能再创新高了。这么多的股票的股价不能创新高，谈何牛市行情？
当然，个股股价不能创新高，并不是说股市就没行情了。向上不能拓展空间，就向下拓展吗。银广夏深深房 2001 年末、 2002 年初的股价持续暴跌，促成了 2002 年二股的“短期向上翻两倍的涨升行情”。也即，未来的很多年，股市的再上涨行情将是靠“之前的股价连续打幅度下跌”跌出来的。就比如，股价从10元起被暴炒到100元的股票，在该股已经于2007年10月见大顶后，未来在股价已经不可能再创新高的情况下，未来数年的行情将会怎样走？还会不会再有行情？本人的回答是未来各年该股还会有比较大的行情的，只不过，未来各年的上涨行情，将均是靠“股价之前的连续大跌”跌出来的！
以上可以告诉我们两点：（ 1 ）我们不用担心市场以后没行情，中国的股市每年都会有一波挣钱效应很强的行情的；（ 2 ）在靠个股下跌跌出来行情的市场背景下，投资者只有能空仓规避了个股下跌过程中的风险后，做每年的这波行情才有真正意义。
其实，我们从另外一个角度，也可以很好地理解“股市中挣钱者为10-20%、基本持平者为20%左右、赔钱者为60-70%”的科学合理性（较长时间进行考核，而不是考核半年、一年）：
在我们国家（其它国家也大致相同），实业投资者（搞实业的，如搞各类企业），总体上的社会平均投资收益率目前大致为8-12%！也即有个别高一点的也有低一点的，但平均在10%左右。即搞实业，平均看，投资100万，平均看一年可以赚10万元————略高于银行贷款利率（7%）。应该说，从投资的难度、投资变现的难度、投资主体人士的知识结构等等，实业投资要比股市投资难得多，因此，平均看（股市投资的所有投资者的平均收益状况和实业投资所有投资者的总体收益状况对比看），若取一个较长的研究周期，则实业投资的平均收益率是应该高于“股市投资的平均收益率”的。而实业投资的平均收益率才是10%（不可能过高，若过高，就没人往银行存钱了，就都去搞实业去了，也即，实业投资的平均投资收益率平均看就是比银行贷款利率高2-4个百分点是最合理区域），而股市如果一段时间的总体平均收益率若远高于实业投资收益率，那股市在该段时间也就属于“不正常”！即，前面高出的，必然要由后面亏损的来冲减！否则，股市的平均收益率若长期平均看高于社会平均收益率，那谁还去搞实业？
所以，对这些基本的常识性原理，我们投资者要搞清楚。当你搞清楚这些基本原理后，你就不会在为股市的下跌而抱怨，你面对股市的大跌也就会心平气和，你也就会正视股市下跌会给自己带来的风险及合理地重视风险和加强防范风险、不会盲目地一直看多！
当然，股市处于前期大涨后的“还债下跌阶段”，也并不是说股市就挣不到钱，但就如本人前期提到的那样，此时的挣钱，是靠：（1）股市战略性的挖掘！就如本人2月中旬在搏客中给大家挖掘推荐的厦门港务一样（2月中旬至今涨幅已有50%）；（2）靠大盘的严重下跌后的“超跌反抽”来挣钱，比如上周二后市买股，到今天不是很容易挣10%吗？
所以，我们只有正确认识了股市本身的特性、规律性，我们才能达心平气和，才能在股市中长期获取好的收益，而那些每天都处在抱怨这抱怨那得人，成天寄些王于股市天天涨的人，实际上是根本就不懂股市，当然也就难以长期取得好的收益。
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