试想想……如果我们将全世界的财富集合起来，然后在平均的分配给每个人，那么每个人都得到一样的财富，这个世界是不是永远都不会再有富人和穷人之分呢？
告诉你，十年后，分配财富之前是富人的，又会再次成为富人；而那些分配财富之前是穷人的，都已经变回穷人了！
原因很简单，因为每个人都有自己的信念，有自己的想法，有自己处事的方式，有自己花钱的方式。那么，富人与穷人的信念有什么不同呢？
我们来看看这则故事：
有一个穷人，他很穷，一个富人见他可怜，就起了善心，想帮他致富。富人送他一头牛，嘱他好好开荒，等春天来了撒上种子，秋天就可以远离那个“穷”字了。
穷人满怀希望开始奋斗。可是没过几天，牛要吃草，人要吃饭，日子比过去还难。穷人就想，不如把牛卖了，买几只羊，先杀一只吃，剩下的还可以生小羊，长大了拿去卖，可以赚更多的钱。穷人的计划如愿以偿，只是吃了一只羊以后，小羊迟迟没有生下来，日子又艰难了，忍不住又吃了一只。穷人想：这样下去不得了，不如把羊卖了，买成鸡，鸡生蛋的速度要快一些，鸡蛋立刻可以赚钱，日子立刻可以好转。
穷人的计划又如愿以偿了，但是日子并没有改变，又艰难了，又忍不住杀鸡，终于杀到只剩一只鸡时，穷人的理想彻底崩溃。他想：致富是无望了，还不如把鸡卖了，打一壶酒，三杯下肚，万事不愁。
很快春天来了，发善心的富人兴奋勃勃送种子来，竟然发现穷人正吃着咸菜喝酒，牛早就没有了，房子里依然一贫如洗。富人转身走了。穷人仍然一直穷着。
很多穷人都有过梦想，甚至有过机遇，又过行动，但是坚持到底却很难。
再想想……富人的信念是什么？穷人的信念又是什么呢？
我的看法是：
富人的信念就是坚持到底。不论日子多困难，他都依照原本的计划，一步一步的走，因为他相信自己只要依照计划，迟早会致富！
穷人就是无法坚持到底。当他遇到困难时，他就会开始放弃之前所计划好的一切，开始改变计划来使自己暂时过的好一些，以后的事就以后再说吧！
你的看法呢？口袋理财
如果我告诉你，我有一套可以致富的秘方，但是你需要花二十年的时间，才可以达到百万的梦想，你能够坚持到底吗？
罗马不是一天建成的，致富也不是区区几年内就能够达到的！
Sunday, September 7, 2008
人人都能做亿万富翁,只需要简单的数学知识
人人都能做亿万富翁,只需要简单的数学知识,复利的运用
到底富人拥有什么特殊技能是那些天天省吃俭用、日日勤奋工作的上班族所欠缺的呢？富人何以能在一生中积累如此巨大的财富？答案无非是：投资理财的能力。民众理财知识的差距悬殊，是真正造成穷富差距的主要原因。理财致富只需具备三个基本条件：固定的储蓄，追求高报酬以及长期等待。
A、亿万富翁的神奇公式
假定有一位年轻人，从现在开始能够定期每年存下1.4万元，如此持续40年；但如果他将每年应存下的钱都能投资到股票或房地产，并获得每年平均20%的投资报酬率，那么40年后，他能积累多少财富？一般人所猜的金额，多落在200万元至800万元之间，顶多猜到1000万元。然而正确的答案却是：1.0281亿，一个令众人惊讶的数字。这个数据是依照财务学计算年金的公式得之，计算公式如下：1.4万(1＋20%)40=1.0281亿。
这个神奇的公式说明，一个25岁的上班族，如果依照这种方式投资到65岁退休时，就能成为亿万富翁了。投资理财没有什么复杂的技巧，最重要的是观念，观念正确就会赢，每一个理财致富的人，只不过养成了一般人不喜欢、且无法做到的习惯而已。
B、钱追钱快过人追钱
台湾有句俗语叫：“人两脚，钱四脚”，意思是钱有4只脚，钱追钱，比人追钱快多了。和信企业集团是台湾排名前5位的大集团，由和信企业集团会长辜振甫和台湾信托董事长辜濂松领军。外界总想知道这叔侄俩究竟谁比较有钱，有钱与否其实与个性有很大关系。辜振甫属于慢郎中型，而辜濂松属于急惊风型。辜振甫的长子———台湾人寿总经理辜启允非常了解他们，他说：“钱放进辜振甫的口袋就出不来了，但是放在辜濂松的口袋就会不见了。”因为辜振甫赚的钱都存到银行，而辜濂松赚到的钱都拿出来投资。而结果是：虽然两个年龄相差17岁，但是侄子辜濂松的资产却遥遥领先于其叔辜振甫。因此一生能积累多少钱，不是取决于你赚了多少钱，而是你如何理财。致富关键在如何理财，并非开源节流。
C、将财产作三等份打理
目前，储蓄仍是大部分人传统的理财方式。但是，钱存在银行短期是最安全，但长期却是最危险的理财方式。银行存款何错之有？其错在于利率(投资报酬率)太低，不适于作为长期投资工具。同样假设一个人每年存1.4万元；而他将这些钱全部存入银行，享受平均5%的利率，40年后他可以积累1.4万元(1＋5%)40=169万元。与投资报酬率为20%的项目相比，两者收益竟相差70多倍。
更何况，货币价值还有一个隐形杀手———通货膨胀。在通货膨胀5%之下，将钱存在名义利率约为5%的银行，那么实质报酬等于零。因此，一个家庭存在银行的金额，保持在两个月的生活所需就足够了。不少理财专家建议将财产3等份，一份存银行，一份投资房地产，一份投资于较投机的工具上。我们不妨建议你的投资组合为“两大一小”，即大部分的资产以股票和房地产的形式投资，小部分的钱存在金融机构，以备日常生活所需。
D、最安全的投资策略
理财致富是“马拉松竞赛”而非“百米冲刺”，比的是耐力而不是爆发力。对于短期无法预测，长期具有高报酬率之投资，最安全的投资策略是：先投资，等待机会再投资。
有些人认为理财是富人、高收入家庭的专利，要先有足够的钱，才有资格谈投资理财。事实上，影响未来财富的关键因素，是投资报酬率的高低与时间的长短，而不是资金的多寡。以那个神奇的公式所讲述的方法为例，若你已经拥有36万元，则你可以减少奋斗10年，若你已有261万元，则可以减少奋斗20年，而只需20年就可以成为亿万富翁。要想有更多的本钱，不妨去借。投资理财的最高境界也正是“举债投资”。而银行的功能，则是提供给不善理财者一个存钱的地方，好让善于理财者利用这些钱去投资赚钱。
诺贝尔基金会的启示
世界闻名的诺贝尔基金会每年发布奖项必须支付高达500万美元的奖金。我们不禁要问：诺贝尔基金会的基金到底有多少？事实上，诺贝尔基金会的成功，除了诺贝尔本人在100年前捐献一笔庞大的基金外，更重要的是归功于诺贝尔基金会的理财有方。诺贝尔基金会成立于1896年，由诺贝尔捐献980万美元。由于该基金会成立的目的是用于支付奖金，管理不允许出现任何的差错。因此，基金会成立初期，其章程中明白地确定基金的投资范围，应限制在安全且固定收益的项目上，如银行存款与公债。这种保本重于报酬率、安全至上的投资原则，的确是稳重的做法。但牺牲报酬率的结果是：随着每年奖金的发放与基金运作的开销，历经50多年后，到1953年该基金会的资产只剩下300多万美元。
眼见基金的资产将消耗殆尽，诺贝尔基金会的理事们及时觉醒，意识到投资报酬率对财富积累的重要性，于是在1953年做出突破性的改变，更改基金管理章程，将原来只准存放银行与买公债，改变为应以投资股票、房地产为主的理财观。资产管理观念改变后，就此扭转了基金的命运。1993年基金的总资产滚动至2亿多美元。
到底富人拥有什么特殊技能是那些天天省吃俭用、日日勤奋工作的上班族所欠缺的呢？富人何以能在一生中积累如此巨大的财富？答案无非是：投资理财的能力。民众理财知识的差距悬殊，是真正造成穷富差距的主要原因。理财致富只需具备三个基本条件：固定的储蓄，追求高报酬以及长期等待。
A、亿万富翁的神奇公式
假定有一位年轻人，从现在开始能够定期每年存下1.4万元，如此持续40年；但如果他将每年应存下的钱都能投资到股票或房地产，并获得每年平均20%的投资报酬率，那么40年后，他能积累多少财富？一般人所猜的金额，多落在200万元至800万元之间，顶多猜到1000万元。然而正确的答案却是：1.0281亿，一个令众人惊讶的数字。这个数据是依照财务学计算年金的公式得之，计算公式如下：1.4万(1＋20%)40=1.0281亿。
这个神奇的公式说明，一个25岁的上班族，如果依照这种方式投资到65岁退休时，就能成为亿万富翁了。投资理财没有什么复杂的技巧，最重要的是观念，观念正确就会赢，每一个理财致富的人，只不过养成了一般人不喜欢、且无法做到的习惯而已。
B、钱追钱快过人追钱
台湾有句俗语叫：“人两脚，钱四脚”，意思是钱有4只脚，钱追钱，比人追钱快多了。和信企业集团是台湾排名前5位的大集团，由和信企业集团会长辜振甫和台湾信托董事长辜濂松领军。外界总想知道这叔侄俩究竟谁比较有钱，有钱与否其实与个性有很大关系。辜振甫属于慢郎中型，而辜濂松属于急惊风型。辜振甫的长子———台湾人寿总经理辜启允非常了解他们，他说：“钱放进辜振甫的口袋就出不来了，但是放在辜濂松的口袋就会不见了。”因为辜振甫赚的钱都存到银行，而辜濂松赚到的钱都拿出来投资。而结果是：虽然两个年龄相差17岁，但是侄子辜濂松的资产却遥遥领先于其叔辜振甫。因此一生能积累多少钱，不是取决于你赚了多少钱，而是你如何理财。致富关键在如何理财，并非开源节流。
C、将财产作三等份打理
目前，储蓄仍是大部分人传统的理财方式。但是，钱存在银行短期是最安全，但长期却是最危险的理财方式。银行存款何错之有？其错在于利率(投资报酬率)太低，不适于作为长期投资工具。同样假设一个人每年存1.4万元；而他将这些钱全部存入银行，享受平均5%的利率，40年后他可以积累1.4万元(1＋5%)40=169万元。与投资报酬率为20%的项目相比，两者收益竟相差70多倍。
更何况，货币价值还有一个隐形杀手———通货膨胀。在通货膨胀5%之下，将钱存在名义利率约为5%的银行，那么实质报酬等于零。因此，一个家庭存在银行的金额，保持在两个月的生活所需就足够了。不少理财专家建议将财产3等份，一份存银行，一份投资房地产，一份投资于较投机的工具上。我们不妨建议你的投资组合为“两大一小”，即大部分的资产以股票和房地产的形式投资，小部分的钱存在金融机构，以备日常生活所需。
D、最安全的投资策略
理财致富是“马拉松竞赛”而非“百米冲刺”，比的是耐力而不是爆发力。对于短期无法预测，长期具有高报酬率之投资，最安全的投资策略是：先投资，等待机会再投资。
有些人认为理财是富人、高收入家庭的专利，要先有足够的钱，才有资格谈投资理财。事实上，影响未来财富的关键因素，是投资报酬率的高低与时间的长短，而不是资金的多寡。以那个神奇的公式所讲述的方法为例，若你已经拥有36万元，则你可以减少奋斗10年，若你已有261万元，则可以减少奋斗20年，而只需20年就可以成为亿万富翁。要想有更多的本钱，不妨去借。投资理财的最高境界也正是“举债投资”。而银行的功能，则是提供给不善理财者一个存钱的地方，好让善于理财者利用这些钱去投资赚钱。
诺贝尔基金会的启示
世界闻名的诺贝尔基金会每年发布奖项必须支付高达500万美元的奖金。我们不禁要问：诺贝尔基金会的基金到底有多少？事实上，诺贝尔基金会的成功，除了诺贝尔本人在100年前捐献一笔庞大的基金外，更重要的是归功于诺贝尔基金会的理财有方。诺贝尔基金会成立于1896年，由诺贝尔捐献980万美元。由于该基金会成立的目的是用于支付奖金，管理不允许出现任何的差错。因此，基金会成立初期，其章程中明白地确定基金的投资范围，应限制在安全且固定收益的项目上，如银行存款与公债。这种保本重于报酬率、安全至上的投资原则，的确是稳重的做法。但牺牲报酬率的结果是：随着每年奖金的发放与基金运作的开销，历经50多年后，到1953年该基金会的资产只剩下300多万美元。
眼见基金的资产将消耗殆尽，诺贝尔基金会的理事们及时觉醒，意识到投资报酬率对财富积累的重要性，于是在1953年做出突破性的改变，更改基金管理章程，将原来只准存放银行与买公债，改变为应以投资股票、房地产为主的理财观。资产管理观念改变后，就此扭转了基金的命运。1993年基金的总资产滚动至2亿多美元。
不看价值看趋势
今天大盘以直接的方式跌破本轮牛市的起点，股改是失败了，很多人所说的不破２２４５还是牛市的说法也彻底失败了．这样的行情，只能用我们常说的趋势来解释．这样的下跌也说明了我一直所说的作为趋势投资目前仍不宜介入的理论依据．同样也是前几天对一些重仓朋友建议继续适量减持保持更多些资金以待有趋势反转时可以考虑的降低持仓成本，可以减少些亏损，或是能得些利润的根据．
股价每天都会有波动，可以说这是不同的投资每一刻不同的操作心态所致．但是一直下跌应说是有一些必然性的，也就是说一直的下跌已形成了一种趋势，这样的趋势的形成，没有根本的外界原因的影响是不可能产生的．那么当前的外界因素是什么呢？那就是大家每天看新闻的时候的，可以看到国际经济形势一直在走着一个向下的趋势，作为全球化经济越来越一体化的时候，中国难以独善其身．基本面可以说是发生了大大的变化．再者简单的说一个大家也是全部明白的是，作为目前中国市场较有特色的一个大小非的问题．可以说是一种无成本的筹码，这样的筹码不仅没有在逐步的减少，反而在当今市场上，旧的没有结束的前提下，新股的不断的发行，新增的大小非还在不断的增加．这样的因素何以能解决当前的股市趋势的变化呢？不言自明．
谈到国际经济，这是一个复杂的过程，难以阐述．但是谈到大小非，可想的办法可以说是多些的．有很多有见地的有识之士谈了很多很多的办法，但是结果是大家所见的，作为政府可以起主导作用的部门．可以说是到目前为止没有什么建树的．换句话说，也就是放弃了当前的市场的，不只是如此，反而在市场情况明显不好的时候，还在不间断的增发新股．记得五月份我说过，作为当前国家还把这个市场当作一个圈钱的市场的心理下，也许只有当新股完全发不出，或是发了就跌破发行价的时候，作为主管部门发现他只考虑通过市场发行达到圈钱的目的，就完成了他们的政绩的任务，对上就可以交差的工作做不到的时候，也许他才会考虑去做一些真正的符合市场长期稳定生存的制度建设．而不再是当前每天只是口水满天飞．不见大雨滴的情况．
当前情况，从一直所说的估值来看，是有相当多的股符合以前的市场估值，或是比以前更有估值优势了，这样的估值我们可以看，但是不可以只是着眼于此．趋势的作用一定要认真对待．生活中惯性的道理大家全是明白的，趋势其实就是一个惯性．这样的惯性会在一些外力作用下有所减速，能减多少，就是要看外力的大小了．
操作上看，如上面所说的趋势、惯性，外力会有影响，自身想刹车也是一个作用力，那就是不会是一个方向不停的发力前行。今天大盘的下跌，跌破２２００后没有出现昨天预想的可能出现的小反弹。真是秋风秋雨冷瑟瑟。这样的情况应该说多加些衣服捂紧衣服是对的。捂紧的概念有两样的想法，一是资金可不能再动，二是手中的股没有出手的看来不来一个反弹可能就出手也是不合理的了。
破了２２００没有出现反弹，那么就要看我预期的２０５０的结果会不会给大家带来一些可以开心些的结果了。这样的结果目前还可以从前面的分析上有些保持，另一方面，近来Ｂ股也有些动作的样子。所以主观上我们并不希望政策周末就出一些什么样的利好来，因为当前的利好只会形成一些小的反弹，而会后跌的更深些。但是如果一直以真空的方式跌到２０５０左右的话，那么随着短期的快速下跌，反弹的空间也就多些了。假如那时再有些不错的利好促进，反弹的高度或许也会有百分之十五左右。当然假如真的如此所言，反弹之后，在众多的因素没有根本解决的情况下，大盘仍会走一个下跌绵绵无绝期的时候。
从以前的观点看，很多个股有估值了，短线的高手可以每天的找着机会搏杀；但是趋势还没有给出一个介入的理由，那么趋势投资者还是持着不看估值看趋势的理念更好些哦。
股价每天都会有波动，可以说这是不同的投资每一刻不同的操作心态所致．但是一直下跌应说是有一些必然性的，也就是说一直的下跌已形成了一种趋势，这样的趋势的形成，没有根本的外界原因的影响是不可能产生的．那么当前的外界因素是什么呢？那就是大家每天看新闻的时候的，可以看到国际经济形势一直在走着一个向下的趋势，作为全球化经济越来越一体化的时候，中国难以独善其身．基本面可以说是发生了大大的变化．再者简单的说一个大家也是全部明白的是，作为目前中国市场较有特色的一个大小非的问题．可以说是一种无成本的筹码，这样的筹码不仅没有在逐步的减少，反而在当今市场上，旧的没有结束的前提下，新股的不断的发行，新增的大小非还在不断的增加．这样的因素何以能解决当前的股市趋势的变化呢？不言自明．
谈到国际经济，这是一个复杂的过程，难以阐述．但是谈到大小非，可想的办法可以说是多些的．有很多有见地的有识之士谈了很多很多的办法，但是结果是大家所见的，作为政府可以起主导作用的部门．可以说是到目前为止没有什么建树的．换句话说，也就是放弃了当前的市场的，不只是如此，反而在市场情况明显不好的时候，还在不间断的增发新股．记得五月份我说过，作为当前国家还把这个市场当作一个圈钱的市场的心理下，也许只有当新股完全发不出，或是发了就跌破发行价的时候，作为主管部门发现他只考虑通过市场发行达到圈钱的目的，就完成了他们的政绩的任务，对上就可以交差的工作做不到的时候，也许他才会考虑去做一些真正的符合市场长期稳定生存的制度建设．而不再是当前每天只是口水满天飞．不见大雨滴的情况．
当前情况，从一直所说的估值来看，是有相当多的股符合以前的市场估值，或是比以前更有估值优势了，这样的估值我们可以看，但是不可以只是着眼于此．趋势的作用一定要认真对待．生活中惯性的道理大家全是明白的，趋势其实就是一个惯性．这样的惯性会在一些外力作用下有所减速，能减多少，就是要看外力的大小了．
操作上看，如上面所说的趋势、惯性，外力会有影响，自身想刹车也是一个作用力，那就是不会是一个方向不停的发力前行。今天大盘的下跌，跌破２２００后没有出现昨天预想的可能出现的小反弹。真是秋风秋雨冷瑟瑟。这样的情况应该说多加些衣服捂紧衣服是对的。捂紧的概念有两样的想法，一是资金可不能再动，二是手中的股没有出手的看来不来一个反弹可能就出手也是不合理的了。
破了２２００没有出现反弹，那么就要看我预期的２０５０的结果会不会给大家带来一些可以开心些的结果了。这样的结果目前还可以从前面的分析上有些保持，另一方面，近来Ｂ股也有些动作的样子。所以主观上我们并不希望政策周末就出一些什么样的利好来，因为当前的利好只会形成一些小的反弹，而会后跌的更深些。但是如果一直以真空的方式跌到２０５０左右的话，那么随着短期的快速下跌，反弹的空间也就多些了。假如那时再有些不错的利好促进，反弹的高度或许也会有百分之十五左右。当然假如真的如此所言，反弹之后，在众多的因素没有根本解决的情况下，大盘仍会走一个下跌绵绵无绝期的时候。
从以前的观点看，很多个股有估值了，短线的高手可以每天的找着机会搏杀；但是趋势还没有给出一个介入的理由，那么趋势投资者还是持着不看估值看趋势的理念更好些哦。
Saturday, September 6, 2008
UK downturn 'not as bad'
THE economic downturn in Britain is 'nowhere near' as bad as the early 1990s recession, but the government must do more to help if it is to stand any chance of staying in power, the Trades Union Congress said on Saturday.
Britain's unions descend on the seaside city of Brighton this weekend, angry about sub-inflation pay deals in the sprawling public sector and worried about the impact on families of rising living costs and an economic slowdown.
However, with polls suggesting the ruling Labour party could face defeat in the next election due by 2010, unions are wary of kicking up too much controversy before a political conference season which could decide Prime Minister Gordon Brown's fate.
'There's clearly a danger that we could go into a recession,' Mr Brendan Barber, head of the umbrella TUC group, told reporters in London.
'(But) in terms of what the economy means for ordinary people, clearly at the moment we are nowhere near the scale of the difficulties that we had during the period of the most recent Conservative government,' he said, referring to the early 1990s downturn.
Britain's economy failed to expand in the second quarter and is now expected to shrink as the housing market slump gathers pace, unemployment rises and consumer confidence crumbles.
Mr Brown, hardly a year into the job, has faced calls to resign from within his own party in part because the government's handling of the economic slowdown has brought his leadership credentials, and Labour's ability to govern, into question.
His much-vaunted economic rescue package launched this week has failed to impress analysts who say there is actually very little room in the public finances to stimulate the economy.
While Mr Brown appears to have ruled out a one-off cash gift to help families cope with soaring utility bills, he has raised the level at which taxes must be paid when buying a home.
'I think they need to do more. That will come through very strongly during the Congress,' Mr Barber said, arguing that Labour needed to show it was on the public's side and taking decisive action to support hard-working households during the downturn.
'If that isn't achieved by the government then they risk badly losing public and electoral support,' he said.
Mr Barber warned that Britain could also be hit by more strikes over public sector pay, highlighting the civil service and teachers among those still disgruntled by their pay deals.
'We will potentially see industrial action,' he said, suggesting the government could consider altering its self-imposed limits on public debt to help finance higher salaries in the public service.
'What makes sense in today's world is to use government funding to help keep the economy moving rather than being locked down by that limit,' he said.
Britain's unions descend on the seaside city of Brighton this weekend, angry about sub-inflation pay deals in the sprawling public sector and worried about the impact on families of rising living costs and an economic slowdown.
However, with polls suggesting the ruling Labour party could face defeat in the next election due by 2010, unions are wary of kicking up too much controversy before a political conference season which could decide Prime Minister Gordon Brown's fate.
'There's clearly a danger that we could go into a recession,' Mr Brendan Barber, head of the umbrella TUC group, told reporters in London.
'(But) in terms of what the economy means for ordinary people, clearly at the moment we are nowhere near the scale of the difficulties that we had during the period of the most recent Conservative government,' he said, referring to the early 1990s downturn.
Britain's economy failed to expand in the second quarter and is now expected to shrink as the housing market slump gathers pace, unemployment rises and consumer confidence crumbles.
Mr Brown, hardly a year into the job, has faced calls to resign from within his own party in part because the government's handling of the economic slowdown has brought his leadership credentials, and Labour's ability to govern, into question.
His much-vaunted economic rescue package launched this week has failed to impress analysts who say there is actually very little room in the public finances to stimulate the economy.
While Mr Brown appears to have ruled out a one-off cash gift to help families cope with soaring utility bills, he has raised the level at which taxes must be paid when buying a home.
'I think they need to do more. That will come through very strongly during the Congress,' Mr Barber said, arguing that Labour needed to show it was on the public's side and taking decisive action to support hard-working households during the downturn.
'If that isn't achieved by the government then they risk badly losing public and electoral support,' he said.
Mr Barber warned that Britain could also be hit by more strikes over public sector pay, highlighting the civil service and teachers among those still disgruntled by their pay deals.
'We will potentially see industrial action,' he said, suggesting the government could consider altering its self-imposed limits on public debt to help finance higher salaries in the public service.
'What makes sense in today's world is to use government funding to help keep the economy moving rather than being locked down by that limit,' he said.
Lehman可能和投資者合作成立新公司 轉移手中不良抵押資產
消息人士透露，財務危機傳聞甚囂塵上的Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc(雷曼兄弟)可能取得外部資金，成立一間新公司買下Lehman持有的抵押貸款資產，試圖重振投資人對公司信心。
《彭博社》報導，新合資公司也將負責管理Lehman持有的商業不動產相關資產。至今年5月，Lehman擁有的商業房產抵押貸款資產約有4000亿美元。
Lehman去年擁有的抵押債券金額居業界之首，但隨著需求消散、價格驟跌，Lehman一直試圖努力減少和該市場相關的資產，但也因此登記超過80億美元的資產減記和信貸虧損。上週消息人士透露，美國最大的上市資產管理公司Black Rock Inc 正考慮買下Lehman部分商業抵押貸款資產。
Lehman今年來股價已暴跌80%，表現居AMEX證券股指數中11家公司之末。昨日收盤上漲4.3%或58美分，於綜合交易時間下午4:10來到每股14.03美元。
Lehman發言人不願就任何資產出售傳言發表評論。 消息人士透露，Lehman可能會捐出部份證券資產給新的合資公司，以便當這些資產價格回升時，依舊能夠獲利。
瑞士最大銀行UBS AG及美國第3大券商Merrill Lynch & Co.(美林)，最近也採用大幅貸款給投資人、使其買下公司問題抵押貸款資產的方式出脫。Black Rock等投資人買下UBS價值150亿美元的抵押貸款資產時，其中37.5億美元為轉售的證券資產，其他資金則由UBS借出。
Lehman高層正和時間賽跑，希望在下個月中公佈本季財報前，和任何有興趣的投資人完成交易。不過，Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.駐佛州分析師Richard Bove表示，Lehman執行長Richard Fuld已失去贏得各方信心的黃金時間：「公司內部員工已公然反對決策，外界也逐漸失去對他(Fuld)的信任。這季已經快結束了，他還沒能脫手任何不良資產。令人無法接受。」
上周包括美國私募基金Blackstone Group LP(黑石)和Carlyle Group(凱雷集團)，以及海外的Korea Development Bank(韓國產業銀行)，皆曾表示有興趣買下Lehman資產。
不過《金融時報》上周報導，Korea Development Bank和中國的中信證券已經拒絕共同買下高達50%的Lehman資產，因為對方開價太高；而昨天CNBC也報導，Blackstone決定退出，紐約私募基金Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.出線成為新的可能買家。
《彭博社》報導，新合資公司也將負責管理Lehman持有的商業不動產相關資產。至今年5月，Lehman擁有的商業房產抵押貸款資產約有4000亿美元。
Lehman去年擁有的抵押債券金額居業界之首，但隨著需求消散、價格驟跌，Lehman一直試圖努力減少和該市場相關的資產，但也因此登記超過80億美元的資產減記和信貸虧損。上週消息人士透露，美國最大的上市資產管理公司Black Rock Inc 正考慮買下Lehman部分商業抵押貸款資產。
Lehman今年來股價已暴跌80%，表現居AMEX證券股指數中11家公司之末。昨日收盤上漲4.3%或58美分，於綜合交易時間下午4:10來到每股14.03美元。
Lehman發言人不願就任何資產出售傳言發表評論。 消息人士透露，Lehman可能會捐出部份證券資產給新的合資公司，以便當這些資產價格回升時，依舊能夠獲利。
瑞士最大銀行UBS AG及美國第3大券商Merrill Lynch & Co.(美林)，最近也採用大幅貸款給投資人、使其買下公司問題抵押貸款資產的方式出脫。Black Rock等投資人買下UBS價值150亿美元的抵押貸款資產時，其中37.5億美元為轉售的證券資產，其他資金則由UBS借出。
Lehman高層正和時間賽跑，希望在下個月中公佈本季財報前，和任何有興趣的投資人完成交易。不過，Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.駐佛州分析師Richard Bove表示，Lehman執行長Richard Fuld已失去贏得各方信心的黃金時間：「公司內部員工已公然反對決策，外界也逐漸失去對他(Fuld)的信任。這季已經快結束了，他還沒能脫手任何不良資產。令人無法接受。」
上周包括美國私募基金Blackstone Group LP(黑石)和Carlyle Group(凱雷集團)，以及海外的Korea Development Bank(韓國產業銀行)，皆曾表示有興趣買下Lehman資產。
不過《金融時報》上周報導，Korea Development Bank和中國的中信證券已經拒絕共同買下高達50%的Lehman資產，因為對方開價太高；而昨天CNBC也報導，Blackstone決定退出，紐約私募基金Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.出線成為新的可能買家。
Nomura considering stake in Lehman
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's largest brokerage group, is considering buying a stake in U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, a Japanese newspaper reported Saturday.
Nomura has funds exceeding more than $1.87 billion (200 billion yen) for investment or acquisition of U.S. and European financial institutions, and considering Lehman as "one of investment candidates," the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri said, quoting Nomura president Kenichi Watanabe as saying.
Nomura plans to confirm Lehman's earnings results for the latest quarter, expected as early as next week, and studying subsequent share price movements before making a final decision of whether to make an offer, the Yomiuri said.
Nomura officials were not available for comment Saturday.
Speculation has been rife in recent weeks that subprime mortgage-hit Lehman could try and reach a deal for infusion of capital.
Earlier this week, South Korean media reported the state-controlled Korea Development Bank has made a proposal to acquire 25 percent of Lehman for as much as 6 trillion won ($5.3 billion).
Media reports also mentioned China's CITIC Securities or sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi and Qatar as possible alternatives to the Korean bank. Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group denied reports that it was considering bidding for a stake in Lehman.
Nomura has funds exceeding more than $1.87 billion (200 billion yen) for investment or acquisition of U.S. and European financial institutions, and considering Lehman as "one of investment candidates," the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri said, quoting Nomura president Kenichi Watanabe as saying.
Nomura plans to confirm Lehman's earnings results for the latest quarter, expected as early as next week, and studying subsequent share price movements before making a final decision of whether to make an offer, the Yomiuri said.
Nomura officials were not available for comment Saturday.
Speculation has been rife in recent weeks that subprime mortgage-hit Lehman could try and reach a deal for infusion of capital.
Earlier this week, South Korean media reported the state-controlled Korea Development Bank has made a proposal to acquire 25 percent of Lehman for as much as 6 trillion won ($5.3 billion).
Media reports also mentioned China's CITIC Securities or sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi and Qatar as possible alternatives to the Korean bank. Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group denied reports that it was considering bidding for a stake in Lehman.
Government may soon take over troubled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
The government is expected to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as soon as this weekend in a monumental move designed to protect the mortgage market from the failure of the two companies, which together hold or guarantee half of the nation's mortgage debt, a person briefed on the matter said Friday night.
Some of the details of the intervention, which could cost taxpayers billions, were not yet available, but are expected to include the departure of Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron, according to the source, who asked not to be named because the plan was yet to be announced.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and James Lockhart, the companies' chief regulator, met Friday afternoon with the top executives from the mortgage companies and informed them of the government's plan to put the troubled companies into a conservatorship.
The news, first reported on The Wall Street Journal's Web site, came after stock markets closed. In after-hours trading Fannie Mae's shares plunged $1.54, or 22 percent, to $5.50. Freddie Mac's shares fell $1.06, or almost 21 percent, to $4.04. Common stock in the companies will be worth little to nothing after the government's actions.
The news also followed a report Friday by the Mortgage Bankers Association that more than 4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, a record 9 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.
That confirmed what investors saw in Fannie and Freddie's recent financial results: trouble in the mortgage market has shifted to homeowners who had solid credit but took out exotic loans with little or no proof of their income and assets.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost a combined $3.1 billion between April and June. Half of their credit losses came from these types of risky loans with ballooning monthly payments.
While both companies said they had enough resources to withstand the losses, many investors believe their financial cushions could wither away as defaults and foreclosures mount.
Many in Washington and on Wall Street hadn't expected Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to intervene unless the companies had trouble issuing debt to fund their operations.
This summer, Congress passed a plan to provide unlimited government loans to Fannie and Freddie and to purchase stock in the two companies if needed.
Critics say the open-ended nature of the rescue package could expose taxpayers to billions of dollars of potential losses.
Supporters, however, argue the Bush administration had little choice but to support Fannie and Freddie, which together hold or guarantee $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half the nation's total.
Representatives of Fannie and Freddie declined to comment on the government assistance plan.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said officials "have been in regular communications" with Fannie and Freddie, but refused to comment saying, "We are not going to comment on rumors."
Concern has been growing that a government rescue of Fannie and Freddie could not only wipe out common stockholders, but also be costly for scores of investment, banking and insurance companies that hold billions of dollars in their preferred shares.
Paulson has been in contact in recent weeks with foreign governments that hold billions of dollars of Fannie and Freddie debt to reassure them that the United States recognizes the importance of the two companies.
The two companies had nearly $36 billion in preferred shares outstanding as of June 30, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Mudd, the son of TV anchor Roger Mudd, was elevated to Fannie Mae's top post in December 2004 when chief executive Franklin Raines and chief financial officer Timothy Howard were swept out of office in an accounting scandal. Syron was named Freddie Mac's CEO in 2003, replacing former chief Gregory Parseghian, who was ousted in after being implicated in accounting irregularities.
He formerly was executive chairman of Thermo Electron Corp., a Waltham, Mass.-based maker of scientific equipment, served head of the American Stock Exchange was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in the early 1990s.
Fannie Mae was created by the government in 1938, and was turned into a shareholder-owned company 30 years later. Freddie Mac was established in 1970 to provide competition for Fannie.
A government takeover could cost taxpayers up to $25 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
But the epic decision highlights the size of the threats facing the housing market and the economy. On Friday, Nevada regulators shut down Silver State Bank, the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank. And earlier this year, the government orchestrated the takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase.
Some of the details of the intervention, which could cost taxpayers billions, were not yet available, but are expected to include the departure of Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron, according to the source, who asked not to be named because the plan was yet to be announced.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and James Lockhart, the companies' chief regulator, met Friday afternoon with the top executives from the mortgage companies and informed them of the government's plan to put the troubled companies into a conservatorship.
The news, first reported on The Wall Street Journal's Web site, came after stock markets closed. In after-hours trading Fannie Mae's shares plunged $1.54, or 22 percent, to $5.50. Freddie Mac's shares fell $1.06, or almost 21 percent, to $4.04. Common stock in the companies will be worth little to nothing after the government's actions.
The news also followed a report Friday by the Mortgage Bankers Association that more than 4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, a record 9 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.
That confirmed what investors saw in Fannie and Freddie's recent financial results: trouble in the mortgage market has shifted to homeowners who had solid credit but took out exotic loans with little or no proof of their income and assets.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost a combined $3.1 billion between April and June. Half of their credit losses came from these types of risky loans with ballooning monthly payments.
While both companies said they had enough resources to withstand the losses, many investors believe their financial cushions could wither away as defaults and foreclosures mount.
Many in Washington and on Wall Street hadn't expected Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to intervene unless the companies had trouble issuing debt to fund their operations.
This summer, Congress passed a plan to provide unlimited government loans to Fannie and Freddie and to purchase stock in the two companies if needed.
Critics say the open-ended nature of the rescue package could expose taxpayers to billions of dollars of potential losses.
Supporters, however, argue the Bush administration had little choice but to support Fannie and Freddie, which together hold or guarantee $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half the nation's total.
Representatives of Fannie and Freddie declined to comment on the government assistance plan.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said officials "have been in regular communications" with Fannie and Freddie, but refused to comment saying, "We are not going to comment on rumors."
Concern has been growing that a government rescue of Fannie and Freddie could not only wipe out common stockholders, but also be costly for scores of investment, banking and insurance companies that hold billions of dollars in their preferred shares.
Paulson has been in contact in recent weeks with foreign governments that hold billions of dollars of Fannie and Freddie debt to reassure them that the United States recognizes the importance of the two companies.
The two companies had nearly $36 billion in preferred shares outstanding as of June 30, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Mudd, the son of TV anchor Roger Mudd, was elevated to Fannie Mae's top post in December 2004 when chief executive Franklin Raines and chief financial officer Timothy Howard were swept out of office in an accounting scandal. Syron was named Freddie Mac's CEO in 2003, replacing former chief Gregory Parseghian, who was ousted in after being implicated in accounting irregularities.
He formerly was executive chairman of Thermo Electron Corp., a Waltham, Mass.-based maker of scientific equipment, served head of the American Stock Exchange was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in the early 1990s.
Fannie Mae was created by the government in 1938, and was turned into a shareholder-owned company 30 years later. Freddie Mac was established in 1970 to provide competition for Fannie.
A government takeover could cost taxpayers up to $25 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
But the epic decision highlights the size of the threats facing the housing market and the economy. On Friday, Nevada regulators shut down Silver State Bank, the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank. And earlier this year, the government orchestrated the takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase.
巴菲特吐真言详解23个迷团
1、你进行投资的基本原则是什么？
第一条原则：不许失败。第二条原则：永远记住第一条。本•格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》这本书的最后一章中道出了投资中最重要的四个字：保证安全。我认为100年以后，这个原则还会是投资的基础。理性的态度加上适当的知识结构，你就能成为一个成功的投资者。
2、听说你对大学里关于投资的理论嗤之以鼻。
在当今的大学里流行着一些投资理论，比如有效市场理论，这些理论依赖于推理而不是基于常识。这些课程只会让学生变得更加平庸。
3、在风云变幻的股市上，你如何看待市场和投资者的关系？
格雷厄姆曾用“市场先生”这种形象的说法，来说明市场行为。在他看来，股票市场应该被看作一个情绪容易波动的商业伙伴。这个伙伴每天都会出现，告诉你一个价格，他会以这个价格买你手中的股票，或把他手中的股票卖给你。这个伙伴每天都有一个新价格。我们要做市场先生的主人，而不是做他的奴隶。当我们投资股票时，我们实际上是投资股票所代表的企业。当我们找到了喜欢的公司时，市场高低不会对我们的决策产生影响。我们一个一个地寻找公司，很少花时间考虑宏观因素。我们只考虑那些我们熟悉的企业，而且价格和管理状况要让我们满意。凯恩斯说，不要试图去弄清楚市场在做什么。我们需要弄清楚的是企业。由于某些原因，人们热衷于寻找价格变动中的线索，而不是价值。在这个世界上，最愚蠢的买股行为莫过于看到股价上升就按捺不住而出手。
4、价格和价值之间的差异在哪里？
价格是你将付出的，价值是你将得到的。在决定购买股票时，内在价值是一个重要的概念。没有公式能用来计算内在价值。你必须了解你要买的股票背后的企业。给企业估价既是一门艺术，也是一门科学。你没有必要等到最低价才去买，只要低于你所认定的价值就可以了。如果能以低于价值的价格买进，而且管理层是诚实可靠有能力的，你肯定会赚钱。
5、什么时候买入股票呢？
大多数人在别人也感兴趣的时候买入，实际上最好的买入时机是别人不感兴趣的时候。买热门股不会有好成绩的。投资不需要高智商。投资不是智商160的人战胜智商130的人的游戏。理性是最重要的。
6、哪些投票是最值得买入的？
利润和未来利润的前景决定了股票的价值。我们喜欢那种资本投入能产生高收益的并且很可能持续产生高收益的股票。我们买入可口可乐公司的股票时，它的市盈率大约是23倍。用我们的买入价和现在的收益比，市盈率只有五倍了。购买高利润公司的股票实际上是对通货膨胀的对冲。高利润公司信用评级很高，但它对债务资本的需求却相对较少。那些获利能力较差的公司最需要资金，却得不到足够资金的支持。
7、你如何看待投资中的风险因素？
我很重视确定性。如果你这样做了，风险因素就对你没有意义了。以低于价值的价格买入证券不是冒险。以《华盛顿邮报》为例，它就是一种无风险投资。1973年时，《华盛顿邮报》的市值为8000万美元，而且没有任何负债。如果你问商界人士，《华盛顿邮报》值多少钱，他们一定会说值4亿美元。即使是凌晨2点在大西洋当中进行拍卖，也会有人来买。这种投资是非常安全的，令人不可思议。决定这个投资，也不用花费多少精力。
8、如何看待经营中的借贷行为？
借来的钱就像是公司方向盘上的一柄利剑，它直指公司的心脏，车子总会遇到深坑，这时就会要了公司的命。理想的借贷方法应该保证市场的短期变化不会影响到你。
9、你也曾经是个套利者？
是的，因为我的母亲今晚不在场，我可以向你承认我曾经是个套利者。我早期在格雷厄姆•纽曼公司学会套利。套利的基本形式是在一个市场上以低价买进，然后在另一个市场上以高价卖出。在一个公司宣布以高于市场价的价格购并另一家公司时，我就进行套利。我关注他们宣布了什么，它值多少，我们要付出多少，我们要参与多少时间。我们要算出这一方案被通过的可能性。考虑这些时，参与公司的名头是否响亮并不在考虑之列。
10、什么时候下注最合适？
当球还在投手的手中时，我从不左右移动，只有当机会来临时才会做。
11、你如何对待各种预测专家和经纪人的意见？
如果你想理发，就不要问理发师你需不需要理发。当有人想让我采纳他们的意见时，我会告诫他们：“用我的头脑加上你们的钱，做得会更好。”你必须学会独立思考。我一直很不明白高智商的人为什么会轻易模仿别人。我们从不把好的主意告诉别人。
12、你对独立投资者有何建议？
对独立投资者来说，你应当了解企业运作的过程和企业语言（会计），具有一些比智商更重要的性格和品质。它会有助于你独立思考和避免各种各样的狂热，这种狂热无时无刻不会影响市场。了解会计原理是保证不依赖别人的手段之一。当经理们报告企业情况时，通常会提供按会计原则制成的报表。不幸的是，如果他们想欺骗你，报告也会符合会计原则。如果你不能弄清其中的奥妙，你就不应该从事证券投资这一行。
13、你如何评价华尔街那些淘金者？
只有在华尔街，开着劳斯莱斯的人才会向走在人行道上的人打听消息。其它领域的专业人员，比如牙医，会给普通人带来很多东西。但总的来说，人们从专业理财经理那里什么也得不到。华尔街喜欢把股票市场的活动描述为复杂的对社会有益的活动。然而事实与之相反，短期交易像一只看不见的脚，狠狠地踹在社会的身上。
14、你能谈谈你的选股方法吗？
选股的原则前面已经提到，就是你必须理性地投资。如果你不熟悉，就不要做它。我只做自己完全了解的事。以下是选股方法：第一步，在你了解的企业上画个圈，然后剔除那些价值，管理和应变能力达不到标准的企业。第二步，选定一个企业进行评估。不要随便采纳别人对企业的评估，要自己分析它。比如，你将怎样 经营它？竞争对手是谁？客户是谁？走出门去并和他们交谈，分析你想投资的公司和其它公司相比，优势和弱点在哪里？如果你这样做了，你就可能比公司的管理层更了解这家企业。这一原则也适用于技术类股票。我相信比尔•盖茨也会用这些原则。他对技术的了解程度和我对可口可乐和吉列的了解程度差不多。如果有人说他能估出交易所上市的所有股票的价值，他一定高估了自己的能力。但如果你集中精力去研究某些行业，你能学会许多和估价有关的东西。最重要的不是你的能力范围有多广，而是你的能力有多强。如果你知道你的能力的界限在哪里，你就比那些能力范围比你大五倍而不清楚界限在哪里的人强多了。
15、你为什么不进行其它投资？
既然股市这么简单，这什么还要买房地产呢？根据价值进行投资是如此地简单易懂，以至于到大学拿一个经济学博士显得是一种浪费。进行投资就是在恰当的时间买进好股票并一直持有它，只要它还是一家好公司。
16、你在投资时追求什么？
这可以从伯克希尔登在《华尔街日报》上的一则广告来加以说明。广告说：以下是我们所寻求的东西：A 购买额大。（至少具有1000万美元的税后盈余，越大越好） B 可靠的持续获利能力。（对前景和突然好转的情形我们不感兴趣）C 企业股东权益回报水平良好而且债务水平很低或为零。 D 适当的管理。（我们不提供这项服务） E 简单的企业。（如果需要太复杂的技术，我们就无法了解）F 有明确出价。（我们不想把自己和出售者的时间浪费在讨论价格未定的交易上）
17、听说你对于投资中利用高深的数学很反感？
我从没发现自己要用到代数。当然你要算出企业的价值，然后把它除以它发行在外的普通股总数，这里要用到除法。如果你准备出去买一个农场，一栋住宅或一台干洗机，你有必要带帮人帮你计算吗？你做的买卖是否合算取决于那些企业的未来获利能力与你的买价相比如何？
18、你特别看重一个公司的节俭？
每当我听说又有一个公司进行成本削减计划时，就知道这又是一个不了解什么是成本的公司了。短期突击解决不了问题。真正优秀的经理不会在某个早晨醒过来以后说：“今天我要削减成本。”对一个绩优公司的老板来说，节俭要从自身做起。
19、你是否也有过失误？
是的，我也犯过许多错误，包括位于新英格兰的一家叫伯克希尔的纺织厂。这家落后的纺织企业最终被关闭，然而公司的结构和名称却得以保存，它成了一家投资企业。在21岁时，我把自己所有财富的20%投资在一家加油站，那是一次最糟糕的决策。这次错误的机会成本大约是11亿美元。
20、你迄今购买的理想股票是什么？
我花了很多时间去研究沃尔特•迪斯尼公司。我最喜欢的公司是这样的：美丽的城堡，周围是一条又深又险的护城河，里面住着一位诚实而高贵的首领。护城河就像一个强大的威慑，使得敌人不敢进攻。首领不断创造财富，但不独占它。换句话说，我们喜欢那种具有市场统治地位，别人难以模仿，耐久可靠的大公司。你的企业要有一定的保护能力，使得对手难以进入并以低价与你竞争。当我买股票时，我就认为是买下了整个公司，就像在街边买了家商店。如果买下了商店，我就要了解它的一切。1966年上半年迪斯尼的每股价格为53美元，看起来不太便宜，但以这个价格你能以8000万美元买下整个迪斯尼公司，等于你有了白雪公主和其他一引起卡通人物，有了迪斯尼乐园，还有沃尔特•迪斯尼这个天才当合伙人。
21、你最看重所投资公司的什么方面？
在所有的企业中，每一星期每一个月每一年都会发生各种各样的变化。但真正重要的是找对企业。这方面一个经典的例子是可口可乐公司。它在1919年上市，发行价是40美元1股。第二年，股价跌到每股19美元。如果公司发行上市时你就买进，一年之后，你就丧失一半的财富。但如果你持有到今天，并且把所有红利再投入，它大约值180万美元。我们经历过萧条，也经历过战争，糖价也波动不定，发生过成千上万的事。但是看好产品的前景比在股市中进进出出多赚了多少。查理•芒格叫我关注具有巨大获利能力和成长性的大公司的特点，但获利能力和成长性必须是确定的，不能象德州仪器公司或派拉蒙公司那样是虚构出来的。我曾告诉通用食品的总裁，为什么在没有人对通用食品感兴趣的时候， 我会购买这家公司的股票。“你有响亮的品牌，你的利润占销售额的1/3，而其它食品公司只有1/6到1/7，你有大量现金可用。如果你不知道怎么用，我相信有人会知道。”优秀的公司能连续20到30年保持成长。你买进以后，只要回家，高枕无忧地让经理们做他们的事。
22、你最看重企业的什么方面呢？
我最看重企业商誉的价值。商誉就像企业之城的护城河。可口可乐拥有世界上最大的商誉价值。如果你送给我1000亿美元，让我打败可口可乐在软饮料市场的霸主地位，我会还给你，告诉你这是不可能的。除了商誉价值外，一个好企业还应具有价格的灵活性和调价能力。
23、你如何评价好的管理与好的公司？
我总把自己想象成拥有整个公司。如果管理层也这样想，并依此制定政策，这便是我喜欢的管理层。由于我不是糖果销售，辞书出版，服装和鞋类等业务的专家，所以我喜欢那种专家型的经理。管理很重要，但好公司更重要。我们的结论是，如果让声名卓著的优秀管理人员来经营行业基本素质不太好的企业，企业的状况不会有多大的改观。很少有例外。我喜欢那种即使没人管理也能赚钱的企业。那才是我想要的企业.
第一条原则：不许失败。第二条原则：永远记住第一条。本•格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》这本书的最后一章中道出了投资中最重要的四个字：保证安全。我认为100年以后，这个原则还会是投资的基础。理性的态度加上适当的知识结构，你就能成为一个成功的投资者。
2、听说你对大学里关于投资的理论嗤之以鼻。
在当今的大学里流行着一些投资理论，比如有效市场理论，这些理论依赖于推理而不是基于常识。这些课程只会让学生变得更加平庸。
3、在风云变幻的股市上，你如何看待市场和投资者的关系？
格雷厄姆曾用“市场先生”这种形象的说法，来说明市场行为。在他看来，股票市场应该被看作一个情绪容易波动的商业伙伴。这个伙伴每天都会出现，告诉你一个价格，他会以这个价格买你手中的股票，或把他手中的股票卖给你。这个伙伴每天都有一个新价格。我们要做市场先生的主人，而不是做他的奴隶。当我们投资股票时，我们实际上是投资股票所代表的企业。当我们找到了喜欢的公司时，市场高低不会对我们的决策产生影响。我们一个一个地寻找公司，很少花时间考虑宏观因素。我们只考虑那些我们熟悉的企业，而且价格和管理状况要让我们满意。凯恩斯说，不要试图去弄清楚市场在做什么。我们需要弄清楚的是企业。由于某些原因，人们热衷于寻找价格变动中的线索，而不是价值。在这个世界上，最愚蠢的买股行为莫过于看到股价上升就按捺不住而出手。
4、价格和价值之间的差异在哪里？
价格是你将付出的，价值是你将得到的。在决定购买股票时，内在价值是一个重要的概念。没有公式能用来计算内在价值。你必须了解你要买的股票背后的企业。给企业估价既是一门艺术，也是一门科学。你没有必要等到最低价才去买，只要低于你所认定的价值就可以了。如果能以低于价值的价格买进，而且管理层是诚实可靠有能力的，你肯定会赚钱。
5、什么时候买入股票呢？
大多数人在别人也感兴趣的时候买入，实际上最好的买入时机是别人不感兴趣的时候。买热门股不会有好成绩的。投资不需要高智商。投资不是智商160的人战胜智商130的人的游戏。理性是最重要的。
6、哪些投票是最值得买入的？
利润和未来利润的前景决定了股票的价值。我们喜欢那种资本投入能产生高收益的并且很可能持续产生高收益的股票。我们买入可口可乐公司的股票时，它的市盈率大约是23倍。用我们的买入价和现在的收益比，市盈率只有五倍了。购买高利润公司的股票实际上是对通货膨胀的对冲。高利润公司信用评级很高，但它对债务资本的需求却相对较少。那些获利能力较差的公司最需要资金，却得不到足够资金的支持。
7、你如何看待投资中的风险因素？
我很重视确定性。如果你这样做了，风险因素就对你没有意义了。以低于价值的价格买入证券不是冒险。以《华盛顿邮报》为例，它就是一种无风险投资。1973年时，《华盛顿邮报》的市值为8000万美元，而且没有任何负债。如果你问商界人士，《华盛顿邮报》值多少钱，他们一定会说值4亿美元。即使是凌晨2点在大西洋当中进行拍卖，也会有人来买。这种投资是非常安全的，令人不可思议。决定这个投资，也不用花费多少精力。
8、如何看待经营中的借贷行为？
借来的钱就像是公司方向盘上的一柄利剑，它直指公司的心脏，车子总会遇到深坑，这时就会要了公司的命。理想的借贷方法应该保证市场的短期变化不会影响到你。
9、你也曾经是个套利者？
是的，因为我的母亲今晚不在场，我可以向你承认我曾经是个套利者。我早期在格雷厄姆•纽曼公司学会套利。套利的基本形式是在一个市场上以低价买进，然后在另一个市场上以高价卖出。在一个公司宣布以高于市场价的价格购并另一家公司时，我就进行套利。我关注他们宣布了什么，它值多少，我们要付出多少，我们要参与多少时间。我们要算出这一方案被通过的可能性。考虑这些时，参与公司的名头是否响亮并不在考虑之列。
10、什么时候下注最合适？
当球还在投手的手中时，我从不左右移动，只有当机会来临时才会做。
11、你如何对待各种预测专家和经纪人的意见？
如果你想理发，就不要问理发师你需不需要理发。当有人想让我采纳他们的意见时，我会告诫他们：“用我的头脑加上你们的钱，做得会更好。”你必须学会独立思考。我一直很不明白高智商的人为什么会轻易模仿别人。我们从不把好的主意告诉别人。
12、你对独立投资者有何建议？
对独立投资者来说，你应当了解企业运作的过程和企业语言（会计），具有一些比智商更重要的性格和品质。它会有助于你独立思考和避免各种各样的狂热，这种狂热无时无刻不会影响市场。了解会计原理是保证不依赖别人的手段之一。当经理们报告企业情况时，通常会提供按会计原则制成的报表。不幸的是，如果他们想欺骗你，报告也会符合会计原则。如果你不能弄清其中的奥妙，你就不应该从事证券投资这一行。
13、你如何评价华尔街那些淘金者？
只有在华尔街，开着劳斯莱斯的人才会向走在人行道上的人打听消息。其它领域的专业人员，比如牙医，会给普通人带来很多东西。但总的来说，人们从专业理财经理那里什么也得不到。华尔街喜欢把股票市场的活动描述为复杂的对社会有益的活动。然而事实与之相反，短期交易像一只看不见的脚，狠狠地踹在社会的身上。
14、你能谈谈你的选股方法吗？
选股的原则前面已经提到，就是你必须理性地投资。如果你不熟悉，就不要做它。我只做自己完全了解的事。以下是选股方法：第一步，在你了解的企业上画个圈，然后剔除那些价值，管理和应变能力达不到标准的企业。第二步，选定一个企业进行评估。不要随便采纳别人对企业的评估，要自己分析它。比如，你将怎样 经营它？竞争对手是谁？客户是谁？走出门去并和他们交谈，分析你想投资的公司和其它公司相比，优势和弱点在哪里？如果你这样做了，你就可能比公司的管理层更了解这家企业。这一原则也适用于技术类股票。我相信比尔•盖茨也会用这些原则。他对技术的了解程度和我对可口可乐和吉列的了解程度差不多。如果有人说他能估出交易所上市的所有股票的价值，他一定高估了自己的能力。但如果你集中精力去研究某些行业，你能学会许多和估价有关的东西。最重要的不是你的能力范围有多广，而是你的能力有多强。如果你知道你的能力的界限在哪里，你就比那些能力范围比你大五倍而不清楚界限在哪里的人强多了。
15、你为什么不进行其它投资？
既然股市这么简单，这什么还要买房地产呢？根据价值进行投资是如此地简单易懂，以至于到大学拿一个经济学博士显得是一种浪费。进行投资就是在恰当的时间买进好股票并一直持有它，只要它还是一家好公司。
16、你在投资时追求什么？
这可以从伯克希尔登在《华尔街日报》上的一则广告来加以说明。广告说：以下是我们所寻求的东西：A 购买额大。（至少具有1000万美元的税后盈余，越大越好） B 可靠的持续获利能力。（对前景和突然好转的情形我们不感兴趣）C 企业股东权益回报水平良好而且债务水平很低或为零。 D 适当的管理。（我们不提供这项服务） E 简单的企业。（如果需要太复杂的技术，我们就无法了解）F 有明确出价。（我们不想把自己和出售者的时间浪费在讨论价格未定的交易上）
17、听说你对于投资中利用高深的数学很反感？
我从没发现自己要用到代数。当然你要算出企业的价值，然后把它除以它发行在外的普通股总数，这里要用到除法。如果你准备出去买一个农场，一栋住宅或一台干洗机，你有必要带帮人帮你计算吗？你做的买卖是否合算取决于那些企业的未来获利能力与你的买价相比如何？
18、你特别看重一个公司的节俭？
每当我听说又有一个公司进行成本削减计划时，就知道这又是一个不了解什么是成本的公司了。短期突击解决不了问题。真正优秀的经理不会在某个早晨醒过来以后说：“今天我要削减成本。”对一个绩优公司的老板来说，节俭要从自身做起。
19、你是否也有过失误？
是的，我也犯过许多错误，包括位于新英格兰的一家叫伯克希尔的纺织厂。这家落后的纺织企业最终被关闭，然而公司的结构和名称却得以保存，它成了一家投资企业。在21岁时，我把自己所有财富的20%投资在一家加油站，那是一次最糟糕的决策。这次错误的机会成本大约是11亿美元。
20、你迄今购买的理想股票是什么？
我花了很多时间去研究沃尔特•迪斯尼公司。我最喜欢的公司是这样的：美丽的城堡，周围是一条又深又险的护城河，里面住着一位诚实而高贵的首领。护城河就像一个强大的威慑，使得敌人不敢进攻。首领不断创造财富，但不独占它。换句话说，我们喜欢那种具有市场统治地位，别人难以模仿，耐久可靠的大公司。你的企业要有一定的保护能力，使得对手难以进入并以低价与你竞争。当我买股票时，我就认为是买下了整个公司，就像在街边买了家商店。如果买下了商店，我就要了解它的一切。1966年上半年迪斯尼的每股价格为53美元，看起来不太便宜，但以这个价格你能以8000万美元买下整个迪斯尼公司，等于你有了白雪公主和其他一引起卡通人物，有了迪斯尼乐园，还有沃尔特•迪斯尼这个天才当合伙人。
21、你最看重所投资公司的什么方面？
在所有的企业中，每一星期每一个月每一年都会发生各种各样的变化。但真正重要的是找对企业。这方面一个经典的例子是可口可乐公司。它在1919年上市，发行价是40美元1股。第二年，股价跌到每股19美元。如果公司发行上市时你就买进，一年之后，你就丧失一半的财富。但如果你持有到今天，并且把所有红利再投入，它大约值180万美元。我们经历过萧条，也经历过战争，糖价也波动不定，发生过成千上万的事。但是看好产品的前景比在股市中进进出出多赚了多少。查理•芒格叫我关注具有巨大获利能力和成长性的大公司的特点，但获利能力和成长性必须是确定的，不能象德州仪器公司或派拉蒙公司那样是虚构出来的。我曾告诉通用食品的总裁，为什么在没有人对通用食品感兴趣的时候， 我会购买这家公司的股票。“你有响亮的品牌，你的利润占销售额的1/3，而其它食品公司只有1/6到1/7，你有大量现金可用。如果你不知道怎么用，我相信有人会知道。”优秀的公司能连续20到30年保持成长。你买进以后，只要回家，高枕无忧地让经理们做他们的事。
22、你最看重企业的什么方面呢？
我最看重企业商誉的价值。商誉就像企业之城的护城河。可口可乐拥有世界上最大的商誉价值。如果你送给我1000亿美元，让我打败可口可乐在软饮料市场的霸主地位，我会还给你，告诉你这是不可能的。除了商誉价值外，一个好企业还应具有价格的灵活性和调价能力。
23、你如何评价好的管理与好的公司？
我总把自己想象成拥有整个公司。如果管理层也这样想，并依此制定政策，这便是我喜欢的管理层。由于我不是糖果销售，辞书出版，服装和鞋类等业务的专家，所以我喜欢那种专家型的经理。管理很重要，但好公司更重要。我们的结论是，如果让声名卓著的优秀管理人员来经营行业基本素质不太好的企业，企业的状况不会有多大的改观。很少有例外。我喜欢那种即使没人管理也能赚钱的企业。那才是我想要的企业.
Lehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank'
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may shift about $32 billion of commercial mortgages and real estate to a new company that will be spun off in a move similar to the good-bank-bad-bank model used in the 1980s banking crisis, two people briefed on the discussions said.
The bad bank, nicknamed Spinco for now, would have about $8 billion of equity coming from Lehman, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the plan is one of several under consideration. Spinco would borrow the remaining $24 billion from Lehman or outside investors. The New York-based bank would replace capital put into Spinco, whose shares would be owned by current Lehman shareholders.
Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, 62, is under pressure to strip the firm's balance sheet of hard-to-sell assets. To raise cash needed to cope with losses from a wholesale disposal, Lehman has been talking with Korea Development Bank about a capital infusion and with private equity firms interested in buying its asset-management unit.
``The model helps banks get on with their real business, focus on their strengths, after they put the bad assets aside,'' said Michael Bleier, an attorney at Reed Smith LLP who was the senior counsel to Bank Mellon during its spinoff of bad assets in 1988. ``We'll see it being used again during this crisis.''
Korea Talks
The Spinco proposal would enable Lehman to dispose of 80 percent of its commercial mortgages, the people said. Under another plan, the firm would establish a company capitalized and managed by outside investors to buy some of its mortgage assets. The Spinco plan would enable Lehman's shareholders to benefit from a turnaround in the mortgage market.
Korea Development Bank has been in discussions to buy a 25 percent stake in Lehman for $6 billion, according to the people familiar with the talks. That would replace most of the capital Lehman would put into the bad bank.
The deal must be structured to guarantee enough cash flow from the mortgages being put into the spun-off entity to repay outside lenders, Reed Smith's Bleier said. That would force Lehman or another bank using the model to disclose much more detail about the mortgages and the securities, he said.
Balancing Act
Lehman's $65 billion mortgage-related portfolio has spooked shareholders, driving the stock price down 77 percent this year on concern that the $2.8 billion loss in the second quarter wouldn't end the bleeding. The bigger portion of the portfolio, or $40 billion, is tied to commercial real estate.
Even though defaults of commercial mortgages are still below 1 percent, speculation that delinquencies will jump in that market has pushed down the prices of the bonds backed by commercial real estate loans. By spinning off the mortgages to its own shareholders, Lehman can allow them to benefit from a possible recovery in asset prices when investors realize commercial mortgages aren't going the way of subprime.
``Management's challenge is not that of discarding a troubled portfolio,'' said David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller. ``Instead, management must find a way to relieve pressure on the stock without destroying shareholder value by succumbing to an unwarranted fire sale of commercial mortgages.''
KKR, Carlyle
Lehman, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds last year, has been trying to reduce assets linked to that market as demand dried up and prices plummeted, generating more than $8 billion in writedowns and credit losses. BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. money manager, was considering a purchase of some of Lehman's commercial mortgages, people familiar with those discussions said last month.
If talks with the Korean bank fail, Lehman will turn to the other option for raising capital, the people familiar with the firm's plans said. Private-equity firms including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Carlyle Group have been negotiating to buy a stake in Lehman's asset-management business, which includes Neuberger Berman Inc.
Fuld removed his associate of 30 years, President Joseph Gregory, 56, in June and replaced him with Herbert ``Bart'' McDade, 49, who had run fixed income and equities. Fuld, McDade and other members of the management team are racing to conclude a deal with potential investors before the firm reports earnings this month, people familiar with the situation have said. The company typically announces earnings in mid-September, although last quarter it released preliminary figures a week before schedule.
The mortgage-bond crisis that spread to Lehman escalated in June 2007, when Bear Stearns Cos. began liquidating holdings from one of its hedge funds after losing bets on securities tied to subprime mortgages. Bear Stearns, then the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, sold itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $10 a share.
The bad bank, nicknamed Spinco for now, would have about $8 billion of equity coming from Lehman, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the plan is one of several under consideration. Spinco would borrow the remaining $24 billion from Lehman or outside investors. The New York-based bank would replace capital put into Spinco, whose shares would be owned by current Lehman shareholders.
Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, 62, is under pressure to strip the firm's balance sheet of hard-to-sell assets. To raise cash needed to cope with losses from a wholesale disposal, Lehman has been talking with Korea Development Bank about a capital infusion and with private equity firms interested in buying its asset-management unit.
``The model helps banks get on with their real business, focus on their strengths, after they put the bad assets aside,'' said Michael Bleier, an attorney at Reed Smith LLP who was the senior counsel to Bank Mellon during its spinoff of bad assets in 1988. ``We'll see it being used again during this crisis.''
Korea Talks
The Spinco proposal would enable Lehman to dispose of 80 percent of its commercial mortgages, the people said. Under another plan, the firm would establish a company capitalized and managed by outside investors to buy some of its mortgage assets. The Spinco plan would enable Lehman's shareholders to benefit from a turnaround in the mortgage market.
Korea Development Bank has been in discussions to buy a 25 percent stake in Lehman for $6 billion, according to the people familiar with the talks. That would replace most of the capital Lehman would put into the bad bank.
The deal must be structured to guarantee enough cash flow from the mortgages being put into the spun-off entity to repay outside lenders, Reed Smith's Bleier said. That would force Lehman or another bank using the model to disclose much more detail about the mortgages and the securities, he said.
Balancing Act
Lehman's $65 billion mortgage-related portfolio has spooked shareholders, driving the stock price down 77 percent this year on concern that the $2.8 billion loss in the second quarter wouldn't end the bleeding. The bigger portion of the portfolio, or $40 billion, is tied to commercial real estate.
Even though defaults of commercial mortgages are still below 1 percent, speculation that delinquencies will jump in that market has pushed down the prices of the bonds backed by commercial real estate loans. By spinning off the mortgages to its own shareholders, Lehman can allow them to benefit from a possible recovery in asset prices when investors realize commercial mortgages aren't going the way of subprime.
``Management's challenge is not that of discarding a troubled portfolio,'' said David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller. ``Instead, management must find a way to relieve pressure on the stock without destroying shareholder value by succumbing to an unwarranted fire sale of commercial mortgages.''
KKR, Carlyle
Lehman, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds last year, has been trying to reduce assets linked to that market as demand dried up and prices plummeted, generating more than $8 billion in writedowns and credit losses. BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. money manager, was considering a purchase of some of Lehman's commercial mortgages, people familiar with those discussions said last month.
If talks with the Korean bank fail, Lehman will turn to the other option for raising capital, the people familiar with the firm's plans said. Private-equity firms including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Carlyle Group have been negotiating to buy a stake in Lehman's asset-management business, which includes Neuberger Berman Inc.
Fuld removed his associate of 30 years, President Joseph Gregory, 56, in June and replaced him with Herbert ``Bart'' McDade, 49, who had run fixed income and equities. Fuld, McDade and other members of the management team are racing to conclude a deal with potential investors before the firm reports earnings this month, people familiar with the situation have said. The company typically announces earnings in mid-September, although last quarter it released preliminary figures a week before schedule.
The mortgage-bond crisis that spread to Lehman escalated in June 2007, when Bear Stearns Cos. began liquidating holdings from one of its hedge funds after losing bets on securities tied to subprime mortgages. Bear Stearns, then the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, sold itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $10 a share.
雷曼兄弟可能成立新公司收购抵押贷款资产
雷曼兄弟可能成立一家由外部投资者融资的公司收购其部分抵押贷款资产，目的是驱散市场对该公司面临亏损的担忧情绪。
知情人士称，这家新公司的投资者还将管理所持商业不动产相关资产。该知情人士拒绝披露姓名，原因是这项提议尚未公开，且雷曼兄弟尚未 决定如何实施该计划。截至5月份为止，雷曼兄弟拥有大约4000亿美元的商业抵押贷款资产。
在需求干涸、价格大幅下跌的形势下，雷曼兄弟这家去年最大的抵押贷款债券承销商一直试图减持相关资产。自去年抵押贷款市场崩溃以来，雷曼兄弟已经蒙受了80多亿美元的资本减记和信贷损失。
据知情人士上周透露称，美国最大的上市资金管理公司黑岩(BlackRock Inc.)正考虑收购雷曼兄弟的部分商业抵押贷款资产。
知情人士称，这家新公司的投资者还将管理所持商业不动产相关资产。该知情人士拒绝披露姓名，原因是这项提议尚未公开，且雷曼兄弟尚未 决定如何实施该计划。截至5月份为止，雷曼兄弟拥有大约4000亿美元的商业抵押贷款资产。
在需求干涸、价格大幅下跌的形势下，雷曼兄弟这家去年最大的抵押贷款债券承销商一直试图减持相关资产。自去年抵押贷款市场崩溃以来，雷曼兄弟已经蒙受了80多亿美元的资本减记和信贷损失。
据知情人士上周透露称，美国最大的上市资金管理公司黑岩(BlackRock Inc.)正考虑收购雷曼兄弟的部分商业抵押贷款资产。
巴菲特：未来10年中国会继续做得很好
中国短期通胀并不值得过度关注。这一论断来自于巴菲特。巴菲特对中国经济、世界经济的观点，和国际、国内许许多多的经济学家都是不同的。最不同的一点就是我们大家都很担心中国的通货膨胀问题、整个世界经济下滑导致中国经济可能跟随回落的问题，但这在巴菲特看来都并不重要。相反，他的关注点是未来十年中国会怎么样。他关注中国经济和关注一个公司的发展是一样的。他看的是未来十年国家的经济体会怎么样发展。至于短期内有没有通货膨胀、有没有衰退、有没有需求的下降、有没有部分企业倒闭，他认为这一点没法预测;即便他预测到了，也会开始在适当的时候买进一些价格便宜的好公司股票。
巴菲特的结论是，中国在未来十年、二十年将继续取得长足的发展。他的依据是：其一，“我们要让事情变好，而事实是，中国会做得更好。因为他们起步较低，但是在过去的20年学到了大量的商业智慧，以及如何释放人的潜能。后面这一点美国较早前就学会了，但中国正在非常非常快速地掌握。”其二，他在1995年和2007年分别到过中国。巴菲特1995年曾经到过中国，他说他从未见过一个国家能在12年内发生这么巨大的变化。他相信，未来10年中国会继续做得很好。此外，中国在办这一届奥运会时所显露出来的组织才能、协调才能和商业智慧等各方面，他都认为很满意，奥运会是一次检验。
总之，经济运行正在逐步解释股市下行的原因，但市场的快速回落已经较为充分地反映了目前中国经济的困境，而且也在相当程度上反映了未来中国经济可能遭遇的困难。对比历史可以预知未来，目前市场的大幅回落距离底部已经非常接近。所以，在目前投资者普遍感到恐惧的时候，聪明的应对策略显然是：
一)对中国经济保持信心，对中国股市保持信心;
二)给股市予耐心，股市如同四季，有春夏秋冬，有新陈代谢;
三)显然的是，中国股市(包括A股、B股、H股)已经开始出现了一些显著的机会，出现了一些显著折价交易的优势公司股票，这是值得投资者以长期眼光来进行关注的。
巴菲特的结论是，中国在未来十年、二十年将继续取得长足的发展。他的依据是：其一，“我们要让事情变好，而事实是，中国会做得更好。因为他们起步较低，但是在过去的20年学到了大量的商业智慧，以及如何释放人的潜能。后面这一点美国较早前就学会了，但中国正在非常非常快速地掌握。”其二，他在1995年和2007年分别到过中国。巴菲特1995年曾经到过中国，他说他从未见过一个国家能在12年内发生这么巨大的变化。他相信，未来10年中国会继续做得很好。此外，中国在办这一届奥运会时所显露出来的组织才能、协调才能和商业智慧等各方面，他都认为很满意，奥运会是一次检验。
总之，经济运行正在逐步解释股市下行的原因，但市场的快速回落已经较为充分地反映了目前中国经济的困境，而且也在相当程度上反映了未来中国经济可能遭遇的困难。对比历史可以预知未来，目前市场的大幅回落距离底部已经非常接近。所以，在目前投资者普遍感到恐惧的时候，聪明的应对策略显然是：
一)对中国经济保持信心，对中国股市保持信心;
二)给股市予耐心，股市如同四季，有春夏秋冬，有新陈代谢;
三)显然的是，中国股市(包括A股、B股、H股)已经开始出现了一些显著的机会，出现了一些显著折价交易的优势公司股票，这是值得投资者以长期眼光来进行关注的。
Friday, September 5, 2008
Poor market in September bodes ill for incumbent party
Has the stock market already voted by absentee ballot in this November's presidential race?
It may very well be in the process of doing just that.
And a big clue as to how it is voting is provided by Thursday's dismal stock market, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 345 points. For the still-young month of September, the Dow is now down 3.1%.
This points to an increased likelihood that the Democrats will reclaim the presidency in November's election.
The reason I can even attempt to draw these conclusions from the stock market's recent behavior is an analysis conducted by Ned Davis Research, an institutional research firm based in Venice, Fla.
Specifically, the firm constructed two market averages out of how the Dow has performed in past presidential-election years (back to 1900, in fact). The first of these two benchmarks tracked the market's average performance during years since then in which the incumbent political party eventually won the White House, while the other reflected average returns when the incumbent party lost.
Upon comparing these two benchmarks, as Ned Davis noted earlier this week, "There does not seem to be a lot of difference in election years between those years where the incumbent party wins or loses, except in the month of September where the divergence is striking."
How big a divergence?
During Septembers of years in which the incumbent party goes on to win the White House, the Dow has produced an average gain of 0.32%. During Septembers in which the incumbent party lost, in contrast, the Dow has produced an average loss of 0.71%.
That difference, which totals just over one percentage point, may not appear to be that big. But on an annualized basis it works out to around 13%.
Good statistician that he is, Davis realizes that correlation is not the same as causation. One needs to couple the raw statistics with a plausible theory as to why the stock market would perform differently when the incumbent party wins the White House than when it loses. "Perhaps it is the uncertainty over change," Davis speculates, "or perhaps the stock market predicts or reflects the election results."
Another qualification that Davis emphasizes: "The sample sizes are relatively small." So we can't be as confident in drawing any conclusions as we would if there were lots more data points.
Regardless, however, the stock market's losses this week can't be good news for John McCain's campaign.
It may very well be in the process of doing just that.
And a big clue as to how it is voting is provided by Thursday's dismal stock market, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 345 points. For the still-young month of September, the Dow is now down 3.1%.
This points to an increased likelihood that the Democrats will reclaim the presidency in November's election.
The reason I can even attempt to draw these conclusions from the stock market's recent behavior is an analysis conducted by Ned Davis Research, an institutional research firm based in Venice, Fla.
Specifically, the firm constructed two market averages out of how the Dow has performed in past presidential-election years (back to 1900, in fact). The first of these two benchmarks tracked the market's average performance during years since then in which the incumbent political party eventually won the White House, while the other reflected average returns when the incumbent party lost.
Upon comparing these two benchmarks, as Ned Davis noted earlier this week, "There does not seem to be a lot of difference in election years between those years where the incumbent party wins or loses, except in the month of September where the divergence is striking."
How big a divergence?
During Septembers of years in which the incumbent party goes on to win the White House, the Dow has produced an average gain of 0.32%. During Septembers in which the incumbent party lost, in contrast, the Dow has produced an average loss of 0.71%.
That difference, which totals just over one percentage point, may not appear to be that big. But on an annualized basis it works out to around 13%.
Good statistician that he is, Davis realizes that correlation is not the same as causation. One needs to couple the raw statistics with a plausible theory as to why the stock market would perform differently when the incumbent party wins the White House than when it loses. "Perhaps it is the uncertainty over change," Davis speculates, "or perhaps the stock market predicts or reflects the election results."
Another qualification that Davis emphasizes: "The sample sizes are relatively small." So we can't be as confident in drawing any conclusions as we would if there were lots more data points.
Regardless, however, the stock market's losses this week can't be good news for John McCain's campaign.
Pound tumbles on bleak British outlook
U.K.'s Darling sees worst conditions in 60 years
The beleaguered British pound accelerated its recent fall, plunging to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since April 2006 after U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer said the economic environment is the most difficult in 60 years.
"[The times we're facing] are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years. And it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought," Darling said in an interview published in Saturday's Guardian newspaper.
The remarks painted a much gloomier economic outlook than had previously been portrayed by Darling or other government officials, including Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
News reports said the interview caused tensions between Brown and Darling. Darling later emphasized that he had been speaking in terms of the global economic backdrop.
Still, the remarks stand in contrast to Darling's optimism in the spring budget when he said Britain was better placed than other economies to withstand the global slowdown.
Meanwhile, the comments were "heaping downside pressure" on sterling Monday, said James Hughes, currency strategist at CMC Markets.
The pound plunged in Asian trading and extended losses later in the day to change hands against the dollar at $1.7995, according to FactSet -- a loss of more than 1.5%on the day and the first time the pound has fallen below the $1.80 level since April 2006. The pound had traded above $2.01 as recently as July.
The euro had earlier soared to a new all-time high against sterling, touching 81.26 pence in morning trade. The European single currency remained 0.7% higher against the pound at 80.94 pence.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, said talk of political tensions will likely overhang Brown's efforts to "re-launch" his premiership with a series of economic measures and would be likely to cause investors to continue to shun the pound "for some time to come."
"We are reminded once again that when the [British pound] falls, it falls hard," Derrick wrote.
The fall, however, has left the dollar/pound currency pair technically oversold on the relative strength index, or RSI, noted Naeem Wahid, currency strategist at HBOS.
Meanwhile, commitments-of-traders data showed speculators holding the largest net-long dollar positions versus the pound since at least 1992 in the futures market, raising the risk sterling could see a near-term squeeze higher, Wahid wrote.
Downbeat data
Meanwhile, British economic data remained largely downbeat.
The CIPS/Market U.K. purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector came in at 45.9, up slightly from the nine-and-a-half year low of 44.1 set in July. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in the sector, while a reading of more than 50 indicates expansion.
The Bank of England reported that July mortgage approvals totaled 33,000, down from a downwardly revised 35,000 in June and setting a new all-time low for the statistical series, which began in 1993.
Still, with inflation running well above the 2% target, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to remain on the sidelines when it meets Thursday, Wahid said, leaving its bank rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 5%.
"The bank rate is likely to remain unchanged this week -- the MPC will only be able to cut the bank rate once inflation begins a downward trajectory," Wahid said.
Yen up sharply but trims gains
The Japanese yen, meanwhile, was sharply higher against major counterparts, but trimmed gains in afternoon trade after Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced he would resign in a surprise announcement. See full story.
The dollar remained down 1.2% against the Japanese currency to 108.11 yen. The euro was 1.9% lower at 157.87 yen, notching a five-month low.
Strategists said rising risk aversion has cut into the appetite for carry trades.
A sharp sell-off in Korean equities has put the Korean won under pressure and forced investors to abandon a popular carry trade, said strategists at BNP Paribas.
In a carry trade, traders borrow funds in a low-yielding currency, and then buy assets denominated in a higher-yielding currency.
A sharper-than-expected 1.5% decline in July German retail sales provided further evidence the euro-zone's biggest economy continues to weaken, wrote economists at Capital Economics.
The European Central Bank is expected to leave its key rate on hold at 4.25% when its rate-setting governing council meets on Thursday. The ECB is also wrestling with above-target inflation.
Monday's data, however, show "further signs of weakness in the euro-zone economy, which appears to be spreading north," the Capital Economics economists wrote. "These signs should eventually convince the ECB that underlying inflation will remain relatively subdued and we expect interest rates to fall to 3% by the end of next year."
The beleaguered British pound accelerated its recent fall, plunging to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since April 2006 after U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer said the economic environment is the most difficult in 60 years.
"[The times we're facing] are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years. And it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought," Darling said in an interview published in Saturday's Guardian newspaper.
The remarks painted a much gloomier economic outlook than had previously been portrayed by Darling or other government officials, including Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
News reports said the interview caused tensions between Brown and Darling. Darling later emphasized that he had been speaking in terms of the global economic backdrop.
Still, the remarks stand in contrast to Darling's optimism in the spring budget when he said Britain was better placed than other economies to withstand the global slowdown.
Meanwhile, the comments were "heaping downside pressure" on sterling Monday, said James Hughes, currency strategist at CMC Markets.
The pound plunged in Asian trading and extended losses later in the day to change hands against the dollar at $1.7995, according to FactSet -- a loss of more than 1.5%on the day and the first time the pound has fallen below the $1.80 level since April 2006. The pound had traded above $2.01 as recently as July.
The euro had earlier soared to a new all-time high against sterling, touching 81.26 pence in morning trade. The European single currency remained 0.7% higher against the pound at 80.94 pence.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, said talk of political tensions will likely overhang Brown's efforts to "re-launch" his premiership with a series of economic measures and would be likely to cause investors to continue to shun the pound "for some time to come."
"We are reminded once again that when the [British pound] falls, it falls hard," Derrick wrote.
The fall, however, has left the dollar/pound currency pair technically oversold on the relative strength index, or RSI, noted Naeem Wahid, currency strategist at HBOS.
Meanwhile, commitments-of-traders data showed speculators holding the largest net-long dollar positions versus the pound since at least 1992 in the futures market, raising the risk sterling could see a near-term squeeze higher, Wahid wrote.
Downbeat data
Meanwhile, British economic data remained largely downbeat.
The CIPS/Market U.K. purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector came in at 45.9, up slightly from the nine-and-a-half year low of 44.1 set in July. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in the sector, while a reading of more than 50 indicates expansion.
The Bank of England reported that July mortgage approvals totaled 33,000, down from a downwardly revised 35,000 in June and setting a new all-time low for the statistical series, which began in 1993.
Still, with inflation running well above the 2% target, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to remain on the sidelines when it meets Thursday, Wahid said, leaving its bank rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 5%.
"The bank rate is likely to remain unchanged this week -- the MPC will only be able to cut the bank rate once inflation begins a downward trajectory," Wahid said.
Yen up sharply but trims gains
The Japanese yen, meanwhile, was sharply higher against major counterparts, but trimmed gains in afternoon trade after Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced he would resign in a surprise announcement. See full story.
The dollar remained down 1.2% against the Japanese currency to 108.11 yen. The euro was 1.9% lower at 157.87 yen, notching a five-month low.
Strategists said rising risk aversion has cut into the appetite for carry trades.
A sharp sell-off in Korean equities has put the Korean won under pressure and forced investors to abandon a popular carry trade, said strategists at BNP Paribas.
In a carry trade, traders borrow funds in a low-yielding currency, and then buy assets denominated in a higher-yielding currency.
A sharper-than-expected 1.5% decline in July German retail sales provided further evidence the euro-zone's biggest economy continues to weaken, wrote economists at Capital Economics.
The European Central Bank is expected to leave its key rate on hold at 4.25% when its rate-setting governing council meets on Thursday. The ECB is also wrestling with above-target inflation.
Monday's data, however, show "further signs of weakness in the euro-zone economy, which appears to be spreading north," the Capital Economics economists wrote. "These signs should eventually convince the ECB that underlying inflation will remain relatively subdued and we expect interest rates to fall to 3% by the end of next year."
Business unimpressed by UK chancellor Alistair Darling
BUSINESS leaders accused Alistair Darling of talking Britain into a recession as the pound fell to a record low against the euro.
The Chancellor’s warning that Britain is facing its biggest economic challenge for 60 years was described as a “self-fulfilling prophesy”.
His words threaten to overshadow the first day of Gordon Brown’s long-awaited political fightback.
In a further setback for Mr Brown, a Populus poll for The Times suggests that most voters do not believe that his rescue plan can protect them from an economic downturn.
The Prime Minister will announce measures to help first-time buyers and homeowners facing repossession. A second set of initiatives on fuel is expected within a week. The poll shows that a large majority of voters do not believe they will benefit. While most of the expected proposals are popular, few think that they will make a significant difference to their own situations.
The findings deal a serious blow to Mr Brown, who has staked his future on proving to voters he can shield them from the downturn.
The Conservatives, who remain 16 points ahead in polls, are expected to oppose many of today’s measures and to accuse Labour of mortgaging Britain’s long-term future for the sake of Mr Brown’s political survival.
David Cameron accused Mr Darling of triggering a crisis of confidence with his remark during an interview that Britain was facing the biggest economic challenge in 60 years.
The Chancellor insisted later that he had meant that the country faced a global challenge, and Downing Street has sought to dampen speculation that Mr Darling would be sacked.
The markets reacted to both the interview and the speculation over the Chancellor’s future.
Richard Lambert, Director-General of the CBI, said that the remarks were a surprise. “Chancellors usually talk up the economy,” he said.
Steve Radley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, said that Mr Darling’s comments were “in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy” because of their impact on confidence.
Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Reform, mocked Mr Darling’s assertion, saying: “Maybe in the October (pre-Budget report) he will implement rationing.”
The euro rose to 81.37p in early trading as investors took fright – the highest level since the single currency was introduced in 1999. It fell back slightly in late trading.
Sterling is now the worst-performing of the ten leading currencies this year, having fallen by more than 9 per cent against the euro since January amid mounting expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates. The pound has also plummeted against the US dollar in recent months and fell to a two-year low of $US1.7996 last night.
Mr Brown’s attempt to regain the political initiative was undermined further when Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, warned David Miliband that a leadership challenge would be “crazy, destructive and divisive”.
Asked whether Mr Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, was preparing a leadership bid, Mr Balls said: “I know that he is a sensible, rational, sane politician and a good guy, and I don’t think that he would ever do anything so crazy, destructive and divisive, and that is why I am totally confident that’s not what he was doing.”
The Chancellor’s warning that Britain is facing its biggest economic challenge for 60 years was described as a “self-fulfilling prophesy”.
His words threaten to overshadow the first day of Gordon Brown’s long-awaited political fightback.
In a further setback for Mr Brown, a Populus poll for The Times suggests that most voters do not believe that his rescue plan can protect them from an economic downturn.
The Prime Minister will announce measures to help first-time buyers and homeowners facing repossession. A second set of initiatives on fuel is expected within a week. The poll shows that a large majority of voters do not believe they will benefit. While most of the expected proposals are popular, few think that they will make a significant difference to their own situations.
The findings deal a serious blow to Mr Brown, who has staked his future on proving to voters he can shield them from the downturn.
The Conservatives, who remain 16 points ahead in polls, are expected to oppose many of today’s measures and to accuse Labour of mortgaging Britain’s long-term future for the sake of Mr Brown’s political survival.
David Cameron accused Mr Darling of triggering a crisis of confidence with his remark during an interview that Britain was facing the biggest economic challenge in 60 years.
The Chancellor insisted later that he had meant that the country faced a global challenge, and Downing Street has sought to dampen speculation that Mr Darling would be sacked.
The markets reacted to both the interview and the speculation over the Chancellor’s future.
Richard Lambert, Director-General of the CBI, said that the remarks were a surprise. “Chancellors usually talk up the economy,” he said.
Steve Radley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, said that Mr Darling’s comments were “in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy” because of their impact on confidence.
Martin Weale, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Reform, mocked Mr Darling’s assertion, saying: “Maybe in the October (pre-Budget report) he will implement rationing.”
The euro rose to 81.37p in early trading as investors took fright – the highest level since the single currency was introduced in 1999. It fell back slightly in late trading.
Sterling is now the worst-performing of the ten leading currencies this year, having fallen by more than 9 per cent against the euro since January amid mounting expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates. The pound has also plummeted against the US dollar in recent months and fell to a two-year low of $US1.7996 last night.
Mr Brown’s attempt to regain the political initiative was undermined further when Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, warned David Miliband that a leadership challenge would be “crazy, destructive and divisive”.
Asked whether Mr Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, was preparing a leadership bid, Mr Balls said: “I know that he is a sensible, rational, sane politician and a good guy, and I don’t think that he would ever do anything so crazy, destructive and divisive, and that is why I am totally confident that’s not what he was doing.”
長期鍛鍊唔好偷懶
全球六十六億人口中，超過二十億喺上周五晚上睇北京奧運開幕典禮，籌備七年費用3億美元，超過一萬五千人參加演出及歡迎來自二百零四個國家超過一萬一千個運動健兒，向全世界展示一個現代化中國，亦係改革開放政策落實三十年後中國，雖然仲係窮但朝氣勃勃。二十一世紀係中國人！去年10月起，滬深A股進入內地股市重開以嚟最大一個熊市。一如美猴王被困煉丹爐七七四十九日，受盡痛苦同折磨，先至煉成銅皮鐵骨及金睛火眼變成齊天大勝。1929到32年美國華爾街危機後，到1937年一個全新美國由大蕭條中冒起，準備日後管治全世界。鄧普頓1935年開始投資美股，當年佢名句：「牛市喺最悲觀日子誕生、喺懷疑期長大、喺樂觀期成熟、喺亢奮期死亡！」接近九十五歲鄧普頓喺生日前過身，留下上述不朽名句。我老曹亦經歷過香港多次最悲觀時刻，例如1967年離開學校到社會做嘢時，唔少親戚及朋友去移民。我老曹因父親早死，冇錢到外國讀書兼移民，被人地批為喺香港死梗；1974年香港出現有史以來最大一個熊市又以為我老曹死梗。經歷過呢兩次大難不死，反而養成不怕死性格。响社會上學習精英致富之道，唔好學習佢地生活習慣；學習企業家精神，而唔係佢地風流艷史。
投資利潤可以無限大，但虧損15％要止蝕，極限係20％。唔使怕波幅，波幅愈大，機會愈多。世上冇一帆風順致富法，卻有點樣將驚濤駭浪生存法。唔好將1萬元變成2萬元，呢個係小孩子遊戲，諗諗點樣將1萬元變成100萬元，甚至1000萬元。年輕人應有冒險精神，但响出發前先好好裝備自己。如果連太平山頂亦未上過，又點可以爬喜馬拉雅山？切忌志大才疏，欲登喜馬拉雅山前必先鍛鍊自己；世界上充滿機會（1967年唔少親戚及朋友話香港冇機會而去咗多倫多，事後證明佢地係錯；1982年D同學話香港冇機會又證明係錯；1989年連至愛親朋亦話香港冇機會，同樣證明佢地係錯）。平均每個月出現二至五次機會，問題係你要把握得到。例如7月份拋空石油期貨，你話可以賺幾多？如果你冇長期鍛鍊又點樣喺奧運奪金？Come On , Don't be a lazy boy!
投資愈後生開始愈好。二十三歲開始每月投資2500元到六十五歲已擁有1000萬元。生活量入為出，投資要睇中長線。搵個良好投資顧問（唔係股票經紀），多做運動、唔食煙、每天飲八杯水……月有圓缺、人有悲歡；牛市中保持平常心，熊市中持盈保泰。男仔約會女仔然後一齊使錢；慢慢買佢地負擔唔起嘢而陷入借貸，債上再加債最後連借錢畀佢地金融機構都因呆壞賬太多而執笠。解決辦法得一個──量入為出，開始儲蓄。只係咁樣一嚟全世界金、銀、銅、鐵及石油都要跌價，全球經濟陷入衰退。Meredith Whitney係去年預見次按危機出現分析員，佢家吓正預見上述情況將出現。未來銀行倒閉事件較Jack and Jill roll down the hill仲多。CNN報道加州過去十二個月出售二手樓中，有63％係蝕本，以及拉斯維加斯60％要蝕本，最差係Merced 74.9％賣樓者係蝕本賣出。格蛇話樓價今年年尾見底？只係佢一廂情願想法。
T Boone Pickens今年八十歲。1951年佢喺地理學系畢業後加入Phillips石油公司；1956年同人地借咗2500美元做資本而搵到自己第一口油井；1981年佢Mesa石油公司係全球最大私人石油公司。今天佢已富甲一方，去年只係私人捐款數目已達2億美元，估計佢今天財富達數百億美元。證明成功同開始時有幾多資本係冇關，而係有幾多智慧。
投資利潤可以無限大，但虧損15％要止蝕，極限係20％。唔使怕波幅，波幅愈大，機會愈多。世上冇一帆風順致富法，卻有點樣將驚濤駭浪生存法。唔好將1萬元變成2萬元，呢個係小孩子遊戲，諗諗點樣將1萬元變成100萬元，甚至1000萬元。年輕人應有冒險精神，但响出發前先好好裝備自己。如果連太平山頂亦未上過，又點可以爬喜馬拉雅山？切忌志大才疏，欲登喜馬拉雅山前必先鍛鍊自己；世界上充滿機會（1967年唔少親戚及朋友話香港冇機會而去咗多倫多，事後證明佢地係錯；1982年D同學話香港冇機會又證明係錯；1989年連至愛親朋亦話香港冇機會，同樣證明佢地係錯）。平均每個月出現二至五次機會，問題係你要把握得到。例如7月份拋空石油期貨，你話可以賺幾多？如果你冇長期鍛鍊又點樣喺奧運奪金？Come On , Don't be a lazy boy!
投資愈後生開始愈好。二十三歲開始每月投資2500元到六十五歲已擁有1000萬元。生活量入為出，投資要睇中長線。搵個良好投資顧問（唔係股票經紀），多做運動、唔食煙、每天飲八杯水……月有圓缺、人有悲歡；牛市中保持平常心，熊市中持盈保泰。男仔約會女仔然後一齊使錢；慢慢買佢地負擔唔起嘢而陷入借貸，債上再加債最後連借錢畀佢地金融機構都因呆壞賬太多而執笠。解決辦法得一個──量入為出，開始儲蓄。只係咁樣一嚟全世界金、銀、銅、鐵及石油都要跌價，全球經濟陷入衰退。Meredith Whitney係去年預見次按危機出現分析員，佢家吓正預見上述情況將出現。未來銀行倒閉事件較Jack and Jill roll down the hill仲多。CNN報道加州過去十二個月出售二手樓中，有63％係蝕本，以及拉斯維加斯60％要蝕本，最差係Merced 74.9％賣樓者係蝕本賣出。格蛇話樓價今年年尾見底？只係佢一廂情願想法。
T Boone Pickens今年八十歲。1951年佢喺地理學系畢業後加入Phillips石油公司；1956年同人地借咗2500美元做資本而搵到自己第一口油井；1981年佢Mesa石油公司係全球最大私人石油公司。今天佢已富甲一方，去年只係私人捐款數目已達2億美元，估計佢今天財富達數百億美元。證明成功同開始時有幾多資本係冇關，而係有幾多智慧。
The Subprime Solution:How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It - Robert Shiller
The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response--a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy.
Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990s and in housing between 2000and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects.
This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out.
Reviews:
"With The Subprime Solution, Robert Shiller offers his formula to protect us from repeating such disasters: more financial engineering. It would be easy to sneer at this idea, but Mr. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, always deserves a hearing. . . . In what he describes as a 'brief manifesto,' Mr. Shiller argues that bailouts of distressed borrowers are inevitable to avoid wrecking our economy and shredding our social fabric--even though bailouts may punish the prudent (say, through higher taxes) while comforting those who gambled on real estate and lost."--James R. Hagerty, Wall Street Journal
"Robert J. Shiller's clear-eyed look at what happened in the U.S. housing market--and what might be done about it--is not keen to attribute blame to the actors in the drama. He explains that the development of subprime mortgages in the Nineties was welcomed as a way of extending home ownership to those once locked out of the market, and it was not the dishonesty of the mortgage lenders, or the greed of bankers, that led to the bubble. There was dishonesty and greed, but these were the result of the bubble, not its cause."--Tim Worstall, The Telegraph
"American optimism: Is there any investment bubble it can't fuel? Consider the excesses of the housing market, the effects of which are roiling the global economy. As Yale University economist Robert Shiller demonstrates in his short, whip-smart new book The Subprime Solution, there was a contagion at work that helped pushed home prices to unsustainable levels. . . . Shiller's views are grounded in exhaustive research and penetrating analysis. The Subprime Solution should be read by anyone with assets at risk in the global financial crisis and a desire to fix things ahead of the next crisis. Which is to say, all of us."--Robert Elder, Austin American-Statesman
"Robert Shiller's got an argument that will make some peoples' heads explode in his new book The Subprime Solution--we need more speculation in the housing market. . . . I said above that this solution will make some peoples' heads explode, that the solution to an excess of speculation is to create a market in yet more speculation. Yet in this case ti is indeed true, this is a valid solution."--Tim Worstall, The Register
"[The Subprime Solution] is short, punchy and political. Shiller is a top-flight academic economist who has often warned of the tendency of markets towards irrational exuberance, and of the harmful consequences that follow. He is rightly scathing towards the 'boosters' who kept assuring us that house prices only rise, and he gains authority for having spoken out during the boom, when it was an unpopular position to hold. . . . Shiller's debunking of house price myths is masterful. Especially important is his rubbishing of the concept of scarcity . . . Shiller's explanations are sophisticated and intelligent, and they are also admirably clear."--Michael Savage, Fund Strategy
"The Subprime Solution, his postmortem on irrational exuberance in the real estate market, is superb, even for general-interest readers otherwise confused by the whole mess. Though his introduction reads a bit like an arid position paper, his insistence on the fundamentally psychological, rather than economic, basis of the boom is supple and fascinating."--Andrew Rosenblum, New York Observer
"If you're unfamiliar with Robert Shiller then understand that he is perhaps the most eminent and considered examiner of modern investment bubbles. . . . Shiller's new book, The Subprime Solution, is a concise attempt to elaborate in just seven short chapters the genesis of the housing bubble, explode its myths, explore its scale and the dangers of its deepening impact, assert the need to maintain confidence in our economic and financial institutions by aggressive action, and then explore longer-term, more fundamental reforms and innovations that will create a population much more attuned to economic risk.... There are many more recommendations, but if this book has the ambition of Keynes' earlier work, and the scale of the problem is as suggested, I'd argue that the book is as accessible as you are going to get from such a modern behavioural economics guru. It's a book that everyone who lives in a house should own; just don't buy ten and try to rent them out to friends."--The Knackered Hack
ENDORSEMENTS:
"The subprime crisis has visited ruin on thousands of Americans, and it threatens the health of the global economy. In this timely and fascinating book, Robert Shiller, an expert on irrational behavior in financial markets, conducts a postmortem. How could so many smart people have been so wrong? Shiller concludes that unchecked financial innovation works poorly in asset markets, and he describes the institutions needed to prevent future bubbles."--Gregory Clark, author of A Farewell to Alms
"Reading this exciting book is like watching a skilled surgeon at work. The diagnosis of the subprime mortgage mess is biting in its intensity--the best I have seen--and encompasses the human tragedy as well as the economic and financial crisis. The recommended therapy develops logically from Shiller's analysis and is unique in concept as well as powerful in application. The crystal-clear writing style makes his manifesto a pleasure to read."--Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street and Capital Ideas Evolving
Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990s and in housing between 2000and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects.
This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out.
Reviews:
"With The Subprime Solution, Robert Shiller offers his formula to protect us from repeating such disasters: more financial engineering. It would be easy to sneer at this idea, but Mr. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, always deserves a hearing. . . . In what he describes as a 'brief manifesto,' Mr. Shiller argues that bailouts of distressed borrowers are inevitable to avoid wrecking our economy and shredding our social fabric--even though bailouts may punish the prudent (say, through higher taxes) while comforting those who gambled on real estate and lost."--James R. Hagerty, Wall Street Journal
"Robert J. Shiller's clear-eyed look at what happened in the U.S. housing market--and what might be done about it--is not keen to attribute blame to the actors in the drama. He explains that the development of subprime mortgages in the Nineties was welcomed as a way of extending home ownership to those once locked out of the market, and it was not the dishonesty of the mortgage lenders, or the greed of bankers, that led to the bubble. There was dishonesty and greed, but these were the result of the bubble, not its cause."--Tim Worstall, The Telegraph
"American optimism: Is there any investment bubble it can't fuel? Consider the excesses of the housing market, the effects of which are roiling the global economy. As Yale University economist Robert Shiller demonstrates in his short, whip-smart new book The Subprime Solution, there was a contagion at work that helped pushed home prices to unsustainable levels. . . . Shiller's views are grounded in exhaustive research and penetrating analysis. The Subprime Solution should be read by anyone with assets at risk in the global financial crisis and a desire to fix things ahead of the next crisis. Which is to say, all of us."--Robert Elder, Austin American-Statesman
"Robert Shiller's got an argument that will make some peoples' heads explode in his new book The Subprime Solution--we need more speculation in the housing market. . . . I said above that this solution will make some peoples' heads explode, that the solution to an excess of speculation is to create a market in yet more speculation. Yet in this case ti is indeed true, this is a valid solution."--Tim Worstall, The Register
"[The Subprime Solution] is short, punchy and political. Shiller is a top-flight academic economist who has often warned of the tendency of markets towards irrational exuberance, and of the harmful consequences that follow. He is rightly scathing towards the 'boosters' who kept assuring us that house prices only rise, and he gains authority for having spoken out during the boom, when it was an unpopular position to hold. . . . Shiller's debunking of house price myths is masterful. Especially important is his rubbishing of the concept of scarcity . . . Shiller's explanations are sophisticated and intelligent, and they are also admirably clear."--Michael Savage, Fund Strategy
"The Subprime Solution, his postmortem on irrational exuberance in the real estate market, is superb, even for general-interest readers otherwise confused by the whole mess. Though his introduction reads a bit like an arid position paper, his insistence on the fundamentally psychological, rather than economic, basis of the boom is supple and fascinating."--Andrew Rosenblum, New York Observer
"If you're unfamiliar with Robert Shiller then understand that he is perhaps the most eminent and considered examiner of modern investment bubbles. . . . Shiller's new book, The Subprime Solution, is a concise attempt to elaborate in just seven short chapters the genesis of the housing bubble, explode its myths, explore its scale and the dangers of its deepening impact, assert the need to maintain confidence in our economic and financial institutions by aggressive action, and then explore longer-term, more fundamental reforms and innovations that will create a population much more attuned to economic risk.... There are many more recommendations, but if this book has the ambition of Keynes' earlier work, and the scale of the problem is as suggested, I'd argue that the book is as accessible as you are going to get from such a modern behavioural economics guru. It's a book that everyone who lives in a house should own; just don't buy ten and try to rent them out to friends."--The Knackered Hack
ENDORSEMENTS:
"The subprime crisis has visited ruin on thousands of Americans, and it threatens the health of the global economy. In this timely and fascinating book, Robert Shiller, an expert on irrational behavior in financial markets, conducts a postmortem. How could so many smart people have been so wrong? Shiller concludes that unchecked financial innovation works poorly in asset markets, and he describes the institutions needed to prevent future bubbles."--Gregory Clark, author of A Farewell to Alms
"Reading this exciting book is like watching a skilled surgeon at work. The diagnosis of the subprime mortgage mess is biting in its intensity--the best I have seen--and encompasses the human tragedy as well as the economic and financial crisis. The recommended therapy develops logically from Shiller's analysis and is unique in concept as well as powerful in application. The crystal-clear writing style makes his manifesto a pleasure to read."--Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street and Capital Ideas Evolving
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
House Prices Still Too High Despite Collapse
Despite early signs of a turn in the housing market, prices still have a long way to fall. In fact, we're probably only halfway there.
There's no perfect valuation metric for houses, but two measures--price-to-rent and price-to-income--are the best we know of. Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust provides recent charts of both, and a quick glance reveals how expensive house prices still are.
Price to Rent
Asha calculates the price-to-rent ratio using the Case-Shiller price index and the "Owner's Equivalent Rent" component of the CPI. The horizontal "means" in her chart are one standard deviation above the long term mean (i.e., they're not the average...they're a standard-deviation higher than the average*). The higher mean includes the high prices of the bubble years, and the lower one doesn't. Either way, it's clear that house prices are still well above their long-term average level relative to rents. (And don't forget that prices spend about half the time below the average).
Price to Income
The median price of an existing single- family home as a percentage of median disposable income rose to a record high of 469.5% in 2005, far above the median value of 337.9% during the history of this series (1968-2007) which includes the inflationary period of the later 1970s and the sharp increase in home prices seen in the first seven years of the current decade. Excluding the problematic period of the 1970s and the current decade, the median was 336.5%.
Conclusion
It's hard to say precisely how far house prices will drop and when they'll bottom. But based on these two valuation measures, combined with the rate of decline in house prices, it seems likely that house prices will fall for at least another year and at least as far as they have already (at least in inflation-adjusted terms).
There's no perfect valuation metric for houses, but two measures--price-to-rent and price-to-income--are the best we know of. Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust provides recent charts of both, and a quick glance reveals how expensive house prices still are.
Price to Rent
Asha calculates the price-to-rent ratio using the Case-Shiller price index and the "Owner's Equivalent Rent" component of the CPI. The horizontal "means" in her chart are one standard deviation above the long term mean (i.e., they're not the average...they're a standard-deviation higher than the average*). The higher mean includes the high prices of the bubble years, and the lower one doesn't. Either way, it's clear that house prices are still well above their long-term average level relative to rents. (And don't forget that prices spend about half the time below the average).
Price to Income
The median price of an existing single- family home as a percentage of median disposable income rose to a record high of 469.5% in 2005, far above the median value of 337.9% during the history of this series (1968-2007) which includes the inflationary period of the later 1970s and the sharp increase in home prices seen in the first seven years of the current decade. Excluding the problematic period of the 1970s and the current decade, the median was 336.5%.
Conclusion
It's hard to say precisely how far house prices will drop and when they'll bottom. But based on these two valuation measures, combined with the rate of decline in house prices, it seems likely that house prices will fall for at least another year and at least as far as they have already (at least in inflation-adjusted terms).
曾渊沧@股友通讯录 八月份
8月份又是一个股市下跌的月份。股市在5 月份反弹见顶后就接连3 个月，下跌的速度不快，慢慢的跌，这也是最可怕的跌。跌得快，反弹得快；跌得慢，反弹也慢。
目前的大势唯一的一项好消息是股价已经跌至比“合理”价格还低的水平。何谓“合理”的价格？就是长期走势线的中间位置。这可从海峡时报指数化成对数之后看到。我们可以看到目前的海峡时报指数已经低过代表其长期走势的直线回归线，即附图中中间那条直线。
可以说，目前整体股价于长期趋势中已属于遍低水平，或者说，熊市已过了中期。熊市从去年11 月开始，已经历了9 个月，也许，再过9 个月就是熊市见底时，大家该耐心地等，仍未卖掉的股票也没有必要再卖了。
整体国际经济大势则出现相当混乱的讯息。美国道琼斯指数在跌破11000 点之后出现不错的反弹，同时美元兑世界各地主要货币的汇率也出现反弹，反弹的幅度颇大。7 月份还有人说石油价格将升上每桶200 美元，现在则有人说石油价格会跌破每桶80 美元。不单止石油，许许多多的贵金属、天然资源、商品（Commodity）的价格更出现暴跌现象。看来，这类商品的炒卖泡沫也爆破了。商品期货泡沫爆破，其他货币的汇价回落，大量热钱没地方去，极大的一部分会回到美国，推动美元汇价继续上升，推动美股反弹。如果你有胆量的话，也不妨以少
量的资金搏反弹。只要美股能有不错的反弹，就可以带动新加坡股市。当然，近期美股本身也是一天升一天跌，走势非常反复，的确不容易准确的捕捉低点，有时只能靠感觉。当你感到某一天大盘出现极度恐慌的气氛，股价直线下泻，你可以搏反弹。
新加坡房地产市道下跌，房地产市场已是新加坡经济发展中很重要的一环。涨得太快，不利国家发展；下跌，也不利国家发展。现在房地产价格下跌了一段时间，政府也开始出面做点事，那就是降低发展商的土地重新发展的发展税约6%。这应该会激发发展商的重建欲望，维持建筑业的开工机会。对建筑股，建筑材料股都有利。调低
发展税是减低发展商的负担，不等于楼房价格会上升，因此，地产股仍未到吸纳之时。
欧洲的情况可能比美国更差。美国从去年次级贷款问题恶化之后，就不断地减利率，一减再减，目前美国联邦利率是2%。低利率始终对经济复苏有利，但欧元利率依然相当高，欧洲中央银行依然以对抗通胀为央行的第一目标，因此，维持欧元利率在高水平，导致欧洲陷入经济衰退。因此在可预见的将来，欧洲极可能减息以对抗衰退。
中国的情况更古怪。目前中国经济依然高速增长，最新GDP 的增长率依然达10%以上，经济如果高速增长，8 成国企公布的业绩都不错，盈利增加，但是中国上海、深圳股市大幅下跌，上海综合指数已由去年6000 点高位跌至2300 点，跌幅超越60%。大量股民天天在网上呼吁中央政府救市，连一些外资大证券行也曾经出报告说听到消息中央将会出4000 亿元人民币救市。
我是相信中央会救市，但不会是直接拿钱到市场买股票救市，而是以其他方法保持上市公司能赚钱。中长远而言，只要企业继续赚钱，其股票的价格一定能反映。
目前的大势唯一的一项好消息是股价已经跌至比“合理”价格还低的水平。何谓“合理”的价格？就是长期走势线的中间位置。这可从海峡时报指数化成对数之后看到。我们可以看到目前的海峡时报指数已经低过代表其长期走势的直线回归线，即附图中中间那条直线。
可以说，目前整体股价于长期趋势中已属于遍低水平，或者说，熊市已过了中期。熊市从去年11 月开始，已经历了9 个月，也许，再过9 个月就是熊市见底时，大家该耐心地等，仍未卖掉的股票也没有必要再卖了。
整体国际经济大势则出现相当混乱的讯息。美国道琼斯指数在跌破11000 点之后出现不错的反弹，同时美元兑世界各地主要货币的汇率也出现反弹，反弹的幅度颇大。7 月份还有人说石油价格将升上每桶200 美元，现在则有人说石油价格会跌破每桶80 美元。不单止石油，许许多多的贵金属、天然资源、商品（Commodity）的价格更出现暴跌现象。看来，这类商品的炒卖泡沫也爆破了。商品期货泡沫爆破，其他货币的汇价回落，大量热钱没地方去，极大的一部分会回到美国，推动美元汇价继续上升，推动美股反弹。如果你有胆量的话，也不妨以少
量的资金搏反弹。只要美股能有不错的反弹，就可以带动新加坡股市。当然，近期美股本身也是一天升一天跌，走势非常反复，的确不容易准确的捕捉低点，有时只能靠感觉。当你感到某一天大盘出现极度恐慌的气氛，股价直线下泻，你可以搏反弹。
新加坡房地产市道下跌，房地产市场已是新加坡经济发展中很重要的一环。涨得太快，不利国家发展；下跌，也不利国家发展。现在房地产价格下跌了一段时间，政府也开始出面做点事，那就是降低发展商的土地重新发展的发展税约6%。这应该会激发发展商的重建欲望，维持建筑业的开工机会。对建筑股，建筑材料股都有利。调低
发展税是减低发展商的负担，不等于楼房价格会上升，因此，地产股仍未到吸纳之时。
欧洲的情况可能比美国更差。美国从去年次级贷款问题恶化之后，就不断地减利率，一减再减，目前美国联邦利率是2%。低利率始终对经济复苏有利，但欧元利率依然相当高，欧洲中央银行依然以对抗通胀为央行的第一目标，因此，维持欧元利率在高水平，导致欧洲陷入经济衰退。因此在可预见的将来，欧洲极可能减息以对抗衰退。
中国的情况更古怪。目前中国经济依然高速增长，最新GDP 的增长率依然达10%以上，经济如果高速增长，8 成国企公布的业绩都不错，盈利增加，但是中国上海、深圳股市大幅下跌，上海综合指数已由去年6000 点高位跌至2300 点，跌幅超越60%。大量股民天天在网上呼吁中央政府救市，连一些外资大证券行也曾经出报告说听到消息中央将会出4000 亿元人民币救市。
我是相信中央会救市，但不会是直接拿钱到市场买股票救市，而是以其他方法保持上市公司能赚钱。中长远而言，只要企业继续赚钱，其股票的价格一定能反映。
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
30年经济最大调整在即
出口疲软、企业和地方政府出现偿债危机以及生产成本上升，是中国目前的三大挑战
无疑，中国举办了一届成功的也是最费钱的奥运会。没有哪个国家曾花这么多钱办奥运。不过，中国作为东道主荣登金牌榜首，菲尔普斯和博尔特在这次奥运会上创造了种种“奇迹”，这笔钱花得还算值。
中国之所以能办得起这场“豪华”奥运会，是因为过去30年里，它的经济取得了成功。当然，是邓小平的改革开放政策将中国引向成功。奥运会上，应该给改革开放政策发一块最耀眼的金牌。
奥运盛会已经结束，我们必须重返真实世界。这可能有点让人扫兴。中国的经济正面临空前挑战，不过，大多数与奥运会无关。
首先，欧洲、日本和美国经济30年来同时收缩。这对中国出口造成巨大压力。其次，因“热钱”流入而产生的中国资产泡沫（部分原因是对奥运行情过于乐观）已经破灭。许多公司和地方政府在泡沫中扩张过度。由于资产价格下跌，他们正面临一场偿债能力危机。最后，也是更根本的，生产成本上升正在考验中国低成本扩张战略。
应对挑战时，有正确的做法和错误的做法。错误的做法是，采用以控制价格为目标的行政措施，来解决资产价格下跌和CPI上涨问题。这些政策可能短期内会减轻疼痛，但是，随后会引发一场全面的经济危机。
正确的做法是，将短期稳定需求政策和深入改革、提高效率结合在一起。中国应该从以下几方面着手：
（1）增加地方政府的财政收入份额，以解决他们的偿债能力危机；
（2）加快基础设施建设，来缓冲经济增长减速；
（3）改革金融业，提高经济效率。
过去，中国总是在出现危机时深度调整。例如，为应对亚洲金融危机，中国进行了国有企业改革、公共住房私有化、加入WTO和修建全国范围的高速公路网。这些政策为此后十年的繁荣奠定了基础。
出口之困
目前，中国最大的挑战是出口需求疲软。中国出口总额约占GDP的40％。按附加值算，出口也占到GDP的四分之一。自2003年以来，以美元计价，出口每年以逾20％的幅度增长。排除价格上涨因素，出口部门可能每年直接为中国GDP增长贡献4个百分点。很明显，如果出口增长减速甚至出现下滑，整体经济增长将显著放缓。
作为需求问题之一，自2004年以来，大宗商品价格开始上涨，中国的出口便遭遇成本上升难题。人民币升值和工资上涨使问题更加严峻。劳动密集型商品的出口企业利润本来就薄，成本压力将它们中很大一部分推向亏损边缘。因为固定资产成本的存在和企业主寄望情况会改善，利润下降初期，企业都会坚持原来的生产计划。这就是在过去三年里，中国出口保持强劲的原因。但是，当企业看到成本上升是一个长期问题，它们会缩减产量。
全球贸易是周期性的。可以将目前出口低迷理解为另一次周期的开始，中国可以等待低迷时期结束，出口重新走强。这种战略最终会成功。但是，等待的时间可能很长。不过，中国可以实施改革，来加快贸易复苏。
需求方面，市场格局发生改变。上涨的大宗商品价格，特别是石油价格，将全球收入重新分配，从经合组织和东亚国家向非洲、拉丁美洲、中东和俄罗斯倾斜。单油价上涨就重新分配了占全球GDP3％的收入（与中国出口总额持平）。这些钱转移到了石油出口国。未来几年，强劲的需求应该来自资源出口型国家。中国的出口企业应该在这些市场投资。
成本上升是一个更棘手的问题。大多数中国出口企业是原始设备生产商（OEM），依赖价格竞争取得订单。它们无法接触最终使用者，也不拥有技术。它们是跨国公司的附属工厂，并很难独立谋生。这些中国出口企业和它们的客户——跨国公司谈判能力非常差。当成本上升，跨国公司迫使它们消化了这部分成本。这样下去，会毁掉中国出口企业。这些企业的困境在股价中反映出来。
过去两年，香港上市的出口企业股价已跌了50％-80％（即使这些股票以前也没大涨过）。金融市场基本上表明，这些企业的经营模式不再有效。
中国出口企业必须脱离跨国公司的控制，开辟独立生存之路。在需求方面，随着市场从经合组织国家向资源富裕国家转移，出口企业需要开辟自己的销售渠道。一些企业，例如华为和中国交通建设集团，已经开始这么做了。这些努力需要巨大的投资。雇佣外国员工（在大多数市场很可能是必需的）可能很昂贵。不过，当产品卖不出去，成本再低也无济于事。现在的市场上，最便宜的产品未必会赢得竞争。
在供给方面，中国出口企业也必须升级它们的技术、改善设计和提高品牌知名度。不幸的是，中国出口企业很少具备这些实力。增加这些方面实力需要很长时间。有一个捷径，就是从国外买进技术和品牌。
金融危机为这个战略提供了很好的机会。欧洲、日本和北美大多数中小企业都具备这样的品质，而且现在非常便宜。但是，因为中国出口企业目前困难重重，即便国外的中小企业价格很低，它们也负担不起。但我们也看到，中国外汇储备已经增加到2万亿美元。这些钱应该获得好的回报。可以将这些外汇储备借给出口企业，让它们去买国外优质的中小企业。当这些出口企业盈利改善，它们的股价应该会回到此前的高位，从而也可以回馈它们的资金赞助人——管理外汇的机构。
债务之难
很明显，中国企业存在偿还债务问题。“三角债”，特别是以应收账款形式存在的债务，在不断堆积。问题的源头可能是地方政府缺少资金。地方政府财政收入非常依赖土地销售收入和房地产行业税收收入。这鼓励它们想尽办法推高房价，这也是这场泡沫的一个主要原因。
更深层的原因是，过去十年地方政府财政收入比重下降，刺激它们去寻找新的收入来源，并最后落在了房地产市场。过去一段时间里，由于价格较低，大量土地销售并没有给这些政府带来预期的现金流。目前，房地产市场泡沫已经被刺破。开发商不能像以前那样容易地卖出房子，而且也不能保证支付去年购买土地的应付账款。房地产销售放缓也减少了地方政府的税收。现金紧缺的政府无法付清他们签订的合同，合同的债权人也就无法向他们的供货商支付货款。
解决问题最快的办法就是增加地方政府的收入份额。中国的税收已经达到历史最高水平。预算收入可能达到6万亿人民币（前七个月已经是3.67万亿元人民币），占GDP的21％，是20世纪90年代最低水平的两倍。预算外收入会在此基础上增加30％-40％。国有企业的利润可能达到GDP的6％。总体而言，政府的金库收藏了GDP三分之一的财富，或者是国民生产净值（GDP减去资本贬值）的40％。在过去十年，中国经济明显地转向政府这边，而地方政府的收入份额相对偏小。
降低政府在经济中的重要程度，可能解决中国目前面临的经济问题。在此之前，部门间财政收入重新分配可能会提高地方政府偿债能力。中央政府现在有实力这么做。它可以向地方政府转移财政盈余，这对解决三角债问题有很大帮助。实际上，中央政府还可以发行债券并通过政府间转移支付来解决地方政府偿债问题。
财政再分配应该与增加基础设施投资同步进行。中国经济增长减速越来越明显。考虑到出口企业和房地产开发商的资产流动性问题（这两个行业支撑了中国一半经济增长），中国经济可能会下滑非常快。一些财政激励措施可以看做是软着陆的保障。幸运的是，中国政府有足够的实力制定这样的计划。其中，核心是城市基础设施建设和铁路网修建。
增效之径
中国经济将要面临1998年以来最大的调整。疲软的需求虽有财政刺激加以缓解，也可能要很久才能复原。在供给方面，成本上升需要用市场手段来解决。大多数调整应该依赖价格机制。许多企业将会破产。但是，更多有效率的企业会替代他们。最终，经济会变得更有效率。
当一些企业濒于破产，地方政府的一个反应就是如何拯救它们。不幸的是，这种态度是错误的。许多企业因为忽视主营业务、转向房地产和其他金融交易来获利，现在出现了问题。由于成本上升让制造业盈利变得更加困难，许多企业转向房地产和股票市场，因为这样挣钱很快。随着泡沫破灭，它们出现资不抵债。很难估计这个问题的严重程度有多深。但是，当我去全国各个地方，与当地企业交谈，我发现这个问题很普遍。受资产持续贬值影响，未来12个月，银行间的不良贷款会大幅增加。问题十分严重。
解决方法是什么呢？问题是昨天造成的，我们现在改变不了问题存在的事实。然而，政府也不能拯救所有破产企业。否则，我们就倒退回计划经济和贫穷时代。
相反的，地方政府应该看住那些陷入困境的企业主，防止他们携带资产潜逃。这一幕在十年前发生过。相信许多人这次也会这么做。他们出逃会让中国损失很大。在逃跑前，他们会从破产公司向境外私人银行转移大笔现金，这将让中国银行出现更大的窟窿。所以，地方政府花钱营救他们是很愚蠢的举动。这些钱很可能被偷走。为保护中国金融安全，最有用的政策应该是防止负债累累的企业主离开中国。
中国正面临成本上升或者竞争力下降的挑战。经济增长复苏，需要提高效率。当然，提高效率应该在公司层面上，由价格机制引导。
但是，政策低效率也是一个重要问题。特别是，中国金融系统是中国经济的沉重负担。提高金融行业的效率，对经济增长来讲，有显著的刺激作用。中国应该以提高存款利率作为开端，将存贷差降低到正常的两个百分点。当然，中央银行也应该降低存款准备金率，来使银行系统正常化。同时，“热钱”流出给降低存款准备金率提供了好环境。
中国股票市场是一个败笔。上海A股指数在两年里从1000点跃升到6000点，然后又在一年内掉到2400点。中国应该彻底改进它的市场，防止未来出现目前的危机。重中之重，政府应该放松在市场中的微观干预。当法律出台后，市场就应该自我运行。这是促进市场健康发展的惟一途径。
即将到来的挑战有些令人望而生畏。但是，中国仍然有很多牌可以出。强大的财政和贸易顺差，是“硬着陆”的缓冲垫。仍有很多机会可以改善贸易条件。还有很多领域，例如金融体系，有提高效率的空间。只要政府采取合理政策，经济在两年内就会重焕活力。
无疑，中国举办了一届成功的也是最费钱的奥运会。没有哪个国家曾花这么多钱办奥运。不过，中国作为东道主荣登金牌榜首，菲尔普斯和博尔特在这次奥运会上创造了种种“奇迹”，这笔钱花得还算值。
中国之所以能办得起这场“豪华”奥运会，是因为过去30年里，它的经济取得了成功。当然，是邓小平的改革开放政策将中国引向成功。奥运会上，应该给改革开放政策发一块最耀眼的金牌。
奥运盛会已经结束，我们必须重返真实世界。这可能有点让人扫兴。中国的经济正面临空前挑战，不过，大多数与奥运会无关。
首先，欧洲、日本和美国经济30年来同时收缩。这对中国出口造成巨大压力。其次，因“热钱”流入而产生的中国资产泡沫（部分原因是对奥运行情过于乐观）已经破灭。许多公司和地方政府在泡沫中扩张过度。由于资产价格下跌，他们正面临一场偿债能力危机。最后，也是更根本的，生产成本上升正在考验中国低成本扩张战略。
应对挑战时，有正确的做法和错误的做法。错误的做法是，采用以控制价格为目标的行政措施，来解决资产价格下跌和CPI上涨问题。这些政策可能短期内会减轻疼痛，但是，随后会引发一场全面的经济危机。
正确的做法是，将短期稳定需求政策和深入改革、提高效率结合在一起。中国应该从以下几方面着手：
（1）增加地方政府的财政收入份额，以解决他们的偿债能力危机；
（2）加快基础设施建设，来缓冲经济增长减速；
（3）改革金融业，提高经济效率。
过去，中国总是在出现危机时深度调整。例如，为应对亚洲金融危机，中国进行了国有企业改革、公共住房私有化、加入WTO和修建全国范围的高速公路网。这些政策为此后十年的繁荣奠定了基础。
出口之困
目前，中国最大的挑战是出口需求疲软。中国出口总额约占GDP的40％。按附加值算，出口也占到GDP的四分之一。自2003年以来，以美元计价，出口每年以逾20％的幅度增长。排除价格上涨因素，出口部门可能每年直接为中国GDP增长贡献4个百分点。很明显，如果出口增长减速甚至出现下滑，整体经济增长将显著放缓。
作为需求问题之一，自2004年以来，大宗商品价格开始上涨，中国的出口便遭遇成本上升难题。人民币升值和工资上涨使问题更加严峻。劳动密集型商品的出口企业利润本来就薄，成本压力将它们中很大一部分推向亏损边缘。因为固定资产成本的存在和企业主寄望情况会改善，利润下降初期，企业都会坚持原来的生产计划。这就是在过去三年里，中国出口保持强劲的原因。但是，当企业看到成本上升是一个长期问题，它们会缩减产量。
全球贸易是周期性的。可以将目前出口低迷理解为另一次周期的开始，中国可以等待低迷时期结束，出口重新走强。这种战略最终会成功。但是，等待的时间可能很长。不过，中国可以实施改革，来加快贸易复苏。
需求方面，市场格局发生改变。上涨的大宗商品价格，特别是石油价格，将全球收入重新分配，从经合组织和东亚国家向非洲、拉丁美洲、中东和俄罗斯倾斜。单油价上涨就重新分配了占全球GDP3％的收入（与中国出口总额持平）。这些钱转移到了石油出口国。未来几年，强劲的需求应该来自资源出口型国家。中国的出口企业应该在这些市场投资。
成本上升是一个更棘手的问题。大多数中国出口企业是原始设备生产商（OEM），依赖价格竞争取得订单。它们无法接触最终使用者，也不拥有技术。它们是跨国公司的附属工厂，并很难独立谋生。这些中国出口企业和它们的客户——跨国公司谈判能力非常差。当成本上升，跨国公司迫使它们消化了这部分成本。这样下去，会毁掉中国出口企业。这些企业的困境在股价中反映出来。
过去两年，香港上市的出口企业股价已跌了50％-80％（即使这些股票以前也没大涨过）。金融市场基本上表明，这些企业的经营模式不再有效。
中国出口企业必须脱离跨国公司的控制，开辟独立生存之路。在需求方面，随着市场从经合组织国家向资源富裕国家转移，出口企业需要开辟自己的销售渠道。一些企业，例如华为和中国交通建设集团，已经开始这么做了。这些努力需要巨大的投资。雇佣外国员工（在大多数市场很可能是必需的）可能很昂贵。不过，当产品卖不出去，成本再低也无济于事。现在的市场上，最便宜的产品未必会赢得竞争。
在供给方面，中国出口企业也必须升级它们的技术、改善设计和提高品牌知名度。不幸的是，中国出口企业很少具备这些实力。增加这些方面实力需要很长时间。有一个捷径，就是从国外买进技术和品牌。
金融危机为这个战略提供了很好的机会。欧洲、日本和北美大多数中小企业都具备这样的品质，而且现在非常便宜。但是，因为中国出口企业目前困难重重，即便国外的中小企业价格很低，它们也负担不起。但我们也看到，中国外汇储备已经增加到2万亿美元。这些钱应该获得好的回报。可以将这些外汇储备借给出口企业，让它们去买国外优质的中小企业。当这些出口企业盈利改善，它们的股价应该会回到此前的高位，从而也可以回馈它们的资金赞助人——管理外汇的机构。
债务之难
很明显，中国企业存在偿还债务问题。“三角债”，特别是以应收账款形式存在的债务，在不断堆积。问题的源头可能是地方政府缺少资金。地方政府财政收入非常依赖土地销售收入和房地产行业税收收入。这鼓励它们想尽办法推高房价，这也是这场泡沫的一个主要原因。
更深层的原因是，过去十年地方政府财政收入比重下降，刺激它们去寻找新的收入来源，并最后落在了房地产市场。过去一段时间里，由于价格较低，大量土地销售并没有给这些政府带来预期的现金流。目前，房地产市场泡沫已经被刺破。开发商不能像以前那样容易地卖出房子，而且也不能保证支付去年购买土地的应付账款。房地产销售放缓也减少了地方政府的税收。现金紧缺的政府无法付清他们签订的合同，合同的债权人也就无法向他们的供货商支付货款。
解决问题最快的办法就是增加地方政府的收入份额。中国的税收已经达到历史最高水平。预算收入可能达到6万亿人民币（前七个月已经是3.67万亿元人民币），占GDP的21％，是20世纪90年代最低水平的两倍。预算外收入会在此基础上增加30％-40％。国有企业的利润可能达到GDP的6％。总体而言，政府的金库收藏了GDP三分之一的财富，或者是国民生产净值（GDP减去资本贬值）的40％。在过去十年，中国经济明显地转向政府这边，而地方政府的收入份额相对偏小。
降低政府在经济中的重要程度，可能解决中国目前面临的经济问题。在此之前，部门间财政收入重新分配可能会提高地方政府偿债能力。中央政府现在有实力这么做。它可以向地方政府转移财政盈余，这对解决三角债问题有很大帮助。实际上，中央政府还可以发行债券并通过政府间转移支付来解决地方政府偿债问题。
财政再分配应该与增加基础设施投资同步进行。中国经济增长减速越来越明显。考虑到出口企业和房地产开发商的资产流动性问题（这两个行业支撑了中国一半经济增长），中国经济可能会下滑非常快。一些财政激励措施可以看做是软着陆的保障。幸运的是，中国政府有足够的实力制定这样的计划。其中，核心是城市基础设施建设和铁路网修建。
增效之径
中国经济将要面临1998年以来最大的调整。疲软的需求虽有财政刺激加以缓解，也可能要很久才能复原。在供给方面，成本上升需要用市场手段来解决。大多数调整应该依赖价格机制。许多企业将会破产。但是，更多有效率的企业会替代他们。最终，经济会变得更有效率。
当一些企业濒于破产，地方政府的一个反应就是如何拯救它们。不幸的是，这种态度是错误的。许多企业因为忽视主营业务、转向房地产和其他金融交易来获利，现在出现了问题。由于成本上升让制造业盈利变得更加困难，许多企业转向房地产和股票市场，因为这样挣钱很快。随着泡沫破灭，它们出现资不抵债。很难估计这个问题的严重程度有多深。但是，当我去全国各个地方，与当地企业交谈，我发现这个问题很普遍。受资产持续贬值影响，未来12个月，银行间的不良贷款会大幅增加。问题十分严重。
解决方法是什么呢？问题是昨天造成的，我们现在改变不了问题存在的事实。然而，政府也不能拯救所有破产企业。否则，我们就倒退回计划经济和贫穷时代。
相反的，地方政府应该看住那些陷入困境的企业主，防止他们携带资产潜逃。这一幕在十年前发生过。相信许多人这次也会这么做。他们出逃会让中国损失很大。在逃跑前，他们会从破产公司向境外私人银行转移大笔现金，这将让中国银行出现更大的窟窿。所以，地方政府花钱营救他们是很愚蠢的举动。这些钱很可能被偷走。为保护中国金融安全，最有用的政策应该是防止负债累累的企业主离开中国。
中国正面临成本上升或者竞争力下降的挑战。经济增长复苏，需要提高效率。当然，提高效率应该在公司层面上，由价格机制引导。
但是，政策低效率也是一个重要问题。特别是，中国金融系统是中国经济的沉重负担。提高金融行业的效率，对经济增长来讲，有显著的刺激作用。中国应该以提高存款利率作为开端，将存贷差降低到正常的两个百分点。当然，中央银行也应该降低存款准备金率，来使银行系统正常化。同时，“热钱”流出给降低存款准备金率提供了好环境。
中国股票市场是一个败笔。上海A股指数在两年里从1000点跃升到6000点，然后又在一年内掉到2400点。中国应该彻底改进它的市场，防止未来出现目前的危机。重中之重，政府应该放松在市场中的微观干预。当法律出台后，市场就应该自我运行。这是促进市场健康发展的惟一途径。
即将到来的挑战有些令人望而生畏。但是，中国仍然有很多牌可以出。强大的财政和贸易顺差，是“硬着陆”的缓冲垫。仍有很多机会可以改善贸易条件。还有很多领域，例如金融体系，有提高效率的空间。只要政府采取合理政策，经济在两年内就会重焕活力。
死海游泳记
我年轻时健康并不好，很容易生病，谢天谢地，如今年近古稀，身体反而硬朗，也很少生病，此皆拜长期游泳之赐。
游泳是我的嗜好之一，也是我坚持的生活日课，即使在旅途中，只要酒店有游泳池，也不放过游泳的机会。
最近游约旦，到了死海，自然不肯错过这千载难逢的下海良机。
死海是世界名海之一，相信不少人曾到此观光，但真正在死海游泳的人，恐怕就不多。
死海其实是一个大湖，距离约旦首都安曼约55公里，由约旦和以色列共同拥有，各占一半湖面。
这个湖长67公里，阔18公里，湖最深处达330公尺（约1000英尺）。由北向南流的约旦河注入死海，死海没有出口，四周是沙漠。
死海之得名，恐怕也不是由于没有出口，而是由于海水咸度比普通海水高8.6倍，没有任何生命可以在含盐量这么高的海水中生存。
约旦河的鱼，顺流而下，误入死海，立刻死亡，尸体被冲至岸边，晒乾后裹着一层白盐，是名副其实的“咸鱼”，“死海”名不虚传。
我们在上午九时许到达死海，我换上泳装，就步入海中，要在死海中一展身手，焉知甫入海中，就叫苦连天。
由于含盐量高，我老早就知道，人在死海中，绝对不会下沉，却没想到，一般的游泳技术，在死海中根本没有用武之地。
原来海水的浮力奇大，人在海中，整个身体都被海水推上海面，平躺在海面上，不要说潜水，即使自由式和蛙式也派不上用场，因为海水太咸，头部一沉入水中，鼻孔和眼睛奇痛无比，根本受不了。我企图把头伸出海面，但海水马上把我的下半身也推上海面，头部根本无法保持在水面上。为了避免鼻孔和眼睛沾到海水而疼痛，唯一的方法，是面向天空，平躺在海面上。
在死海仰泳是唯一可用的游泳法。即使你不会游泳，也可以躺在海面上看报纸。
在死海中游泳一小时，没感受游泳之乐，但毕竟是毕生难忘的经历。
掉进死海，即使不会游泳，也绝对不会溺毙，因为含盐量高的海水有一种力量，一定会把你推上海面。
我觉得，股票投资亦如此。
基本面强的投票，有如含盐量高的死海海水，浮力奇强。
一如不会游泳的人不会溺毙于死海，购买基本面强的股票的投资者，即使经验不足，也不会溺毙于“股海”。
购买基本面弱的劣股，有如在没有浮力的普通海水中游泳，随时有溺毙海中的危险。
即使游泳健将，也可能葬身海底，因为海上风大浪高，人微力弱，根本无法与大自然的力量对抗。
永不投机散户生存
在股海中，泳技不如人的散户，要战胜滔天巨浪，难乎其难！
散户唯一的生存机会，就是永不投机，只在低价时购买五星级股票，长期持有。
就好像不会游泳的人，只有在浮力奇强的死海，才有可能生存，若自视过高，企图通过猜测股市动向而抢进杀出，最后必饮恨股海。
死海海水的浮力跟含盐量成正比。
股海的浮力，跟基本面的强度成正比。
游泳是我的嗜好之一，也是我坚持的生活日课，即使在旅途中，只要酒店有游泳池，也不放过游泳的机会。
最近游约旦，到了死海，自然不肯错过这千载难逢的下海良机。
死海是世界名海之一，相信不少人曾到此观光，但真正在死海游泳的人，恐怕就不多。
死海其实是一个大湖，距离约旦首都安曼约55公里，由约旦和以色列共同拥有，各占一半湖面。
这个湖长67公里，阔18公里，湖最深处达330公尺（约1000英尺）。由北向南流的约旦河注入死海，死海没有出口，四周是沙漠。
死海之得名，恐怕也不是由于没有出口，而是由于海水咸度比普通海水高8.6倍，没有任何生命可以在含盐量这么高的海水中生存。
约旦河的鱼，顺流而下，误入死海，立刻死亡，尸体被冲至岸边，晒乾后裹着一层白盐，是名副其实的“咸鱼”，“死海”名不虚传。
我们在上午九时许到达死海，我换上泳装，就步入海中，要在死海中一展身手，焉知甫入海中，就叫苦连天。
由于含盐量高，我老早就知道，人在死海中，绝对不会下沉，却没想到，一般的游泳技术，在死海中根本没有用武之地。
原来海水的浮力奇大，人在海中，整个身体都被海水推上海面，平躺在海面上，不要说潜水，即使自由式和蛙式也派不上用场，因为海水太咸，头部一沉入水中，鼻孔和眼睛奇痛无比，根本受不了。我企图把头伸出海面，但海水马上把我的下半身也推上海面，头部根本无法保持在水面上。为了避免鼻孔和眼睛沾到海水而疼痛，唯一的方法，是面向天空，平躺在海面上。
在死海仰泳是唯一可用的游泳法。即使你不会游泳，也可以躺在海面上看报纸。
在死海中游泳一小时，没感受游泳之乐，但毕竟是毕生难忘的经历。
掉进死海，即使不会游泳，也绝对不会溺毙，因为含盐量高的海水有一种力量，一定会把你推上海面。
我觉得，股票投资亦如此。
基本面强的投票，有如含盐量高的死海海水，浮力奇强。
一如不会游泳的人不会溺毙于死海，购买基本面强的股票的投资者，即使经验不足，也不会溺毙于“股海”。
购买基本面弱的劣股，有如在没有浮力的普通海水中游泳，随时有溺毙海中的危险。
即使游泳健将，也可能葬身海底，因为海上风大浪高，人微力弱，根本无法与大自然的力量对抗。
永不投机散户生存
在股海中，泳技不如人的散户，要战胜滔天巨浪，难乎其难！
散户唯一的生存机会，就是永不投机，只在低价时购买五星级股票，长期持有。
就好像不会游泳的人，只有在浮力奇强的死海，才有可能生存，若自视过高，企图通过猜测股市动向而抢进杀出，最后必饮恨股海。
死海海水的浮力跟含盐量成正比。
股海的浮力，跟基本面的强度成正比。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)