長遠而言，中國投資率及儲蓄率都會下降，但一如日本，由於民族性因素，仍保持相當高水平嘅投資率同儲蓄率，可支持中國進入另一個二十年經濟繁榮期，一如1975至89年日本，問題係幾時進入，而非能否進入；反而美國同歐洲極有可能進入1990年嘅日式衰退。
中國CPI增長率估計今年第四季開始回落，到時政府可放寬或取消汽油價格管制、取消資源價格管制，並讓電價自由化，估計需時六到九個月才能响CPI充分反映，即明年年中中國人行才會着手放寬銀根。今年下半年MSCI中國P/E十四倍、明年十二倍（估計今年純利上升21％，明年再升18％），同時A股純利由過去兩年以年率40％速度上升，改為較正常嘅增長率上升，因此滬深A股中期睇仍受制下降趨勢，不斷失去動力，到明年年中才會回升！
換言之，內地A股眼前係「危」，長遠係「機」！上述諗法响1982年中國宣布收回香港主權時，我老曹亦曾提出，估唔到2008年下半年又再出現，呢次係中國！由於1974年7月我老曹太早吸納和記（今天嘅和黃），教訓仍在，所以呢次我老曹嘅耐性應該足夠（因太早入市係死罪）。
反之，美國受困於CDO，大部分金融股有排搞，喺可見將來仍唔易重返GDP高增長期，房利美及房貸美救番都殘廢，未來再唔能夠擔當美國樓價上升嘅引擎，美國樓價將失去動力而變得死氣沉沉。唔似中國經濟由勞工密集型轉向科技密集型成功後，又再有二十年經濟繁榮期。明年起西方金融業同經濟問題將成為自己本身嘅問題，再唔影響其他新興市場及資源提供國，明年起我地或者見到decouple情況出現，一如九十年代日本進入「斯人獨憔悴」嘅日子。呢次係美國同歐洲成為難兄難弟；中國同印度則支撑其他資源國經濟繁榮。2009年起中國同印度成為全球經濟繁榮引擎，重新啟動，並帶動巴西、俄羅斯、澳洲、加拿大甚至非洲GDP保持高增長。
下半年中國出口或掀恐慌
中國長遠而言前景秀麗，但中期（例如未來半年）卻危機處處。5月份M2升幅18.1％（4月份16.9％），存款升幅19.6％、貸款升幅14.9％，即短期通脹壓力仲好大。中國必須解決眼前一連串問題，才可進入美好境界。
6月份中國出口量只升7％（去年同期20％），估計下半年進一步下降，甚至會引起恐慌。相信下半年中國股市及樓市將繼續承受壓力，要過咗2008年下半年，情況才有機會好轉。
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
谢国忠：美短期救火将导致油价飙升 金融危机全球化
中国跟美国现在都同样面对以下的经济难题，包括了股市疲弱，通胀上升还有经济增长放缓，现在两国政府都开始放缓采取措施来应对，方法不一样，力度也不同。
我们首先来看看美国方面，美国在昨天，也就是在市场高度期盼之下，它们再度出手稳定金融市场的信心，一般都预料说应该在礼拜一美国开市之前政府会有所行动。
果不其然，在当地时间星期天的傍晚，美国政府也就是财政部和联储局分别发布公告，帮助陷于金融困境的两家半官方机构房贷美和房利美，联储局向它们提供最优惠利率，必要的时候财政部也可以参股这两家机构。
美国挽救两大房贷机构保尔森：稳定金融市场
曾瀞漪：财长保尔森说这两家公司也就是房贷美和房利美，要保持强大实力是非常有必要的，可以对维护金融市场和金融系统的稳定和信心至关重要。
保尔森：两家房贷机构对楼市的支持是非常重要，尤其当美国楼市正经历调整期，美国政府支持机构的债务，由全球金融机构所持有，两家机构的持续稳健，对保持金融体系及金融市场信心和稳定是非常重要。
曾瀞漪：财政部计划要向这两家机构提高融资额度，那么财政部也会在有需要的时候买入两家公司的股票，联储局也同意两家机构在必要的时候可以透过贴线窗取得抵押融资，联储局也希望将来在国会讨论，改变两家机构的架构时，可以担当咨询的角色。
美国要拯救房贷美和房利美最主要的另外一个原因是，这两家由政府资助的企业，它们的债券被世界各地的投资者广泛拥有，是其中持有最多的应该是中国和日本。
如果说从美国财政部的数据看起来，到2007年6月份，中国持有的美国债券应该有3760亿美元的债券，到现在可能超过了5000多亿，但是具体持有这两家机构的数字多少目前并不清楚。
另外三大外资持有美国债券的国家包括开曼群岛、卢森堡和比利时。
另外在房贷美和房利美的大股东当中，由于这两家房贷机构股价连日暴挫，像是来自于法国的国卫AXA公司，它们所估计的账面损失也高达了接近400亿港元，因为持这两家股份公司的股份是比较高的。
2007年诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一的埃里克.马斯金教授，日前在上海就说美国次贷危机爆发的主要责任是在政府的监管失误。
那么，随着房贷美和房利美这两家公司财政问题备受关注，过往它们影响政府决策的手法成为焦点，批评者说这两家公司受惠到政府赞助企业的身份，而获得特别优惠。
同时，它们过往利用游社团体阻挠任何阻止它们增长或者是加强对它们管制的议案，当中批评最大的就是曾任众议院众议员的共和党员利奇。
美今售房地美证券测试投资者信心
曾瀞漪：而挽救两大房贷公司，华府在今天会出售房地美这家公司证券来测试市场对它们的信心，它们从上个星期六，也就是7月12号已经开始马不停蹄以电话联系各大银行，希望今天能够顺利卖出高达30亿美元的房地美公司的证券。如果说这个市场反映也不太好的话，美国可能要进一步考虑其他的后备方案拯救这两大房贷机构。
美国楼市风雨飘摇，那么救两大房贷机构的手法到底有没有用，能不能够止血，马上连线的是经济学家谢国忠。
美挽救手法如同救贝尔斯登？效果？
曾瀞漪：可不可以这么说，就是现在联储局和财政部的手法是不是跟挽救贝尔斯登的手法是一样的？那么手法来说会有些什么样的效果吗？
联储提供资金短期内可挽救资金链
谢国忠：差不多吧，我现在短线上来说呢，就是说它有那个资金链要断的这样的一个问题，所以呢，联储的话就是直接可以跟它们贷款的话，那它们在按揭市场提供资金的能力的话暂时就不会断了，所以，联储话等于说是就是把它们当做银行来对待了。
财政部证券隐形担保公开化带来融资信心
谢国忠：另外就是财政部，就是基本上把它原来对它债券的一些担保，就是说隐形的担保，现在变成公开化了，就是说债券的话就是说以后有政府担保的，这样就对融资上面也带来的信心，所以说它还是能够维持下去的。
是否导致市场流动性进一步加大？
曾瀞漪：有政府担保也就这两家机构的钱是比较多，市场不用担心，那是不是在市场上流通的这个钱就更多了一些？
美以央行注资为救危机主要手段国债已超14万亿
谢国忠：是啊，现在美国现在处理这个金融危机主要的手段，是通过央行来贷款。那个因为美国的国债已经很高了有9万亿美金这样一个规模，如果加上这两家公司国债的话，要超过14万亿，超过它们100%的GDP，所以在这个政府的话要承担，要纳税人通过政府来承担这个责任可能性不是很大。
美元是世界货币多印美钞等于将金融危机全球化
谢国忠：现在主要手段算是央行，提供资金，那就等于是印钞票，因为美国的美金是世界货币，就是外资的话拥有16万亿的美国的金融资产，所以它这个印钞票就等于是把它的金融危机就是带来的损失全球化了。
美为解决经济问题短期内不会加息？
曾瀞漪：谢谢，现在很多的问题都是因为流动性过胜，美国又是比较疲弱，美国又不加息，那么从目前美国可能还是解决经济问题看起来，短期之内美国是不是还是不会加息呢？
美短期救火印钞票将导致通胀油价飙升
谢国忠：是，短期是救火，但是救火的后遗症就是那个油价不断的上升，因为它印钞票了嘛，就会引起通胀，引起通胀的第一个表现就是油价上升，最终油价上升对美国的经济打击也是很大的。
为抑油价美大选后可能会加息
谢国忠：所以，为了抑制油价，在那个美国大选之后的话，它有可能会进行有加息的动作的，但在11月份大选之前的话可能性不是很大。
美国救经济对中国有何影响？
曾瀞漪：对于中国来说美国这样的一个挽救手法对中国目前的影响会是什么？
中国外储是美元资产当前方法不利美元预期
谢国忠：对中国的话是有大量的美金的资产，中国的外汇储备主要是美金资产，所以呢就是美国的这种通过就是央行来解决这个金融危机带来的损失的话呢，对美金的长远的那个“架式”是很不利的。
中国应尽早从美债券市场退出购买实质性资产
谢国忠：所以中国应该早作打算，希望能尽早的从美国的债券市场里面能退出来，买一些实质性资产，不容易在通胀当中被贬值的一些资产。
我们首先来看看美国方面，美国在昨天，也就是在市场高度期盼之下，它们再度出手稳定金融市场的信心，一般都预料说应该在礼拜一美国开市之前政府会有所行动。
果不其然，在当地时间星期天的傍晚，美国政府也就是财政部和联储局分别发布公告，帮助陷于金融困境的两家半官方机构房贷美和房利美，联储局向它们提供最优惠利率，必要的时候财政部也可以参股这两家机构。
美国挽救两大房贷机构保尔森：稳定金融市场
曾瀞漪：财长保尔森说这两家公司也就是房贷美和房利美，要保持强大实力是非常有必要的，可以对维护金融市场和金融系统的稳定和信心至关重要。
保尔森：两家房贷机构对楼市的支持是非常重要，尤其当美国楼市正经历调整期，美国政府支持机构的债务，由全球金融机构所持有，两家机构的持续稳健，对保持金融体系及金融市场信心和稳定是非常重要。
曾瀞漪：财政部计划要向这两家机构提高融资额度，那么财政部也会在有需要的时候买入两家公司的股票，联储局也同意两家机构在必要的时候可以透过贴线窗取得抵押融资，联储局也希望将来在国会讨论，改变两家机构的架构时，可以担当咨询的角色。
美国要拯救房贷美和房利美最主要的另外一个原因是，这两家由政府资助的企业，它们的债券被世界各地的投资者广泛拥有，是其中持有最多的应该是中国和日本。
如果说从美国财政部的数据看起来，到2007年6月份，中国持有的美国债券应该有3760亿美元的债券，到现在可能超过了5000多亿，但是具体持有这两家机构的数字多少目前并不清楚。
另外三大外资持有美国债券的国家包括开曼群岛、卢森堡和比利时。
另外在房贷美和房利美的大股东当中，由于这两家房贷机构股价连日暴挫，像是来自于法国的国卫AXA公司，它们所估计的账面损失也高达了接近400亿港元，因为持这两家股份公司的股份是比较高的。
2007年诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一的埃里克.马斯金教授，日前在上海就说美国次贷危机爆发的主要责任是在政府的监管失误。
那么，随着房贷美和房利美这两家公司财政问题备受关注，过往它们影响政府决策的手法成为焦点，批评者说这两家公司受惠到政府赞助企业的身份，而获得特别优惠。
同时，它们过往利用游社团体阻挠任何阻止它们增长或者是加强对它们管制的议案，当中批评最大的就是曾任众议院众议员的共和党员利奇。
美今售房地美证券测试投资者信心
曾瀞漪：而挽救两大房贷公司，华府在今天会出售房地美这家公司证券来测试市场对它们的信心，它们从上个星期六，也就是7月12号已经开始马不停蹄以电话联系各大银行，希望今天能够顺利卖出高达30亿美元的房地美公司的证券。如果说这个市场反映也不太好的话，美国可能要进一步考虑其他的后备方案拯救这两大房贷机构。
美国楼市风雨飘摇，那么救两大房贷机构的手法到底有没有用，能不能够止血，马上连线的是经济学家谢国忠。
美挽救手法如同救贝尔斯登？效果？
曾瀞漪：可不可以这么说，就是现在联储局和财政部的手法是不是跟挽救贝尔斯登的手法是一样的？那么手法来说会有些什么样的效果吗？
联储提供资金短期内可挽救资金链
谢国忠：差不多吧，我现在短线上来说呢，就是说它有那个资金链要断的这样的一个问题，所以呢，联储的话就是直接可以跟它们贷款的话，那它们在按揭市场提供资金的能力的话暂时就不会断了，所以，联储话等于说是就是把它们当做银行来对待了。
财政部证券隐形担保公开化带来融资信心
谢国忠：另外就是财政部，就是基本上把它原来对它债券的一些担保，就是说隐形的担保，现在变成公开化了，就是说债券的话就是说以后有政府担保的，这样就对融资上面也带来的信心，所以说它还是能够维持下去的。
是否导致市场流动性进一步加大？
曾瀞漪：有政府担保也就这两家机构的钱是比较多，市场不用担心，那是不是在市场上流通的这个钱就更多了一些？
美以央行注资为救危机主要手段国债已超14万亿
谢国忠：是啊，现在美国现在处理这个金融危机主要的手段，是通过央行来贷款。那个因为美国的国债已经很高了有9万亿美金这样一个规模，如果加上这两家公司国债的话，要超过14万亿，超过它们100%的GDP，所以在这个政府的话要承担，要纳税人通过政府来承担这个责任可能性不是很大。
美元是世界货币多印美钞等于将金融危机全球化
谢国忠：现在主要手段算是央行，提供资金，那就等于是印钞票，因为美国的美金是世界货币，就是外资的话拥有16万亿的美国的金融资产，所以它这个印钞票就等于是把它的金融危机就是带来的损失全球化了。
美为解决经济问题短期内不会加息？
曾瀞漪：谢谢，现在很多的问题都是因为流动性过胜，美国又是比较疲弱，美国又不加息，那么从目前美国可能还是解决经济问题看起来，短期之内美国是不是还是不会加息呢？
美短期救火印钞票将导致通胀油价飙升
谢国忠：是，短期是救火，但是救火的后遗症就是那个油价不断的上升，因为它印钞票了嘛，就会引起通胀，引起通胀的第一个表现就是油价上升，最终油价上升对美国的经济打击也是很大的。
为抑油价美大选后可能会加息
谢国忠：所以，为了抑制油价，在那个美国大选之后的话，它有可能会进行有加息的动作的，但在11月份大选之前的话可能性不是很大。
美国救经济对中国有何影响？
曾瀞漪：对于中国来说美国这样的一个挽救手法对中国目前的影响会是什么？
中国外储是美元资产当前方法不利美元预期
谢国忠：对中国的话是有大量的美金的资产，中国的外汇储备主要是美金资产，所以呢就是美国的这种通过就是央行来解决这个金融危机带来的损失的话呢，对美金的长远的那个“架式”是很不利的。
中国应尽早从美债券市场退出购买实质性资产
谢国忠：所以中国应该早作打算，希望能尽早的从美国的债券市场里面能退出来，买一些实质性资产，不容易在通胀当中被贬值的一些资产。
Fed chief details woes in markets, housing, jobs
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the fragile economy is facing "numerous difficulties" including persistent strains in financial markets, rising joblessness and housing problems -- despite the Fed's aggressive interest rate reductions and other fortifying steps.
At the same time, Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, sounded another warning that rising prices for energy and food are elevating inflation risks.
The situation, he said, poses "significant challenges" for Fed policymakers as they try to chart the best course for keeping the economy growing, while making sure inflation doesn't dangerously flare up. All the economy's problems, including slumping home values, which threaten to make people feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend in the months ahead, represent "significant downside risks" to economic growth.
Over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions.
On Wall Street, stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones industrials were down nearly 200 points in morning trading.
Inflation has remained high and "seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term," he warned.
Indeed, before Bernanke delivered his twice-a-year comprehensive economic assessment to Congress, the Labor Department reported wholesale prices jumped 1.8 percent in June. That left inflation rising over the past year at the fastest pace in more than a quarter-century.
"Given the high degree of uncertainty" about the Fed's economic outlook, Fed policymakers will need to carefully assess incoming information about inflation and economic growth, he said.
The Fed in June signaled an end to its nearly year long rate-cutting campaign because of growing concerns about inflation. Bernanke kept up his tough anti-inflation talk on Tuesday but stressed many other problems that could short circuit economic growth. He seemed to be keeping his options open in terms of rates. Given all the risky cross currents, economists believe the Fed will leave rates alone when they meet on Aug. 5.
Righting wobbly financial markets is key to getting the economy back on track, he said.
"In general, healthy economic growth depends on well-functioning financial markets," Bernanke said. "Consequently, helping the financial markets to return to more normal functioning will continue to be a top priority," he said.
Bernanke's testimony comes just two days after the Fed and the Treasury Department came to the rescue of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, offering to throw them a financial lifeline.
The companies hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half of the nation's total. The Bush administration is asking Congress to temporarily increase lines of credit to Fannie and Freddie and to let the government buy their stock. The Fed has offered to let the companies draw emergency loans.
The pledges of aid have raised concerns about the government's role in such financial problems and the risk to taxpayers.
Strengthening regulatory oversight of Fannie and Freddie, Bernanke said, is "job one." Congress is moving ahead on a broad housing rescue package that includes provisions to tighten regulation over the two companies. Bernanke said legislative efforts to help stabilize the housing market -- the biggest threat to the economy -- are of vital importance.
Bernanke, in the first day of back-to-back appearances on Capitol Hill, said investors are nervous in general because of the cloudy outlook for the economy and credit conditions, feeding a vicious cycle that can be hard to break.
"Many financial markets and institutions remain under considerable stress, in part because the outlook for the economy and thus for credit quality, remains uncertain."
The Fannie and Freddie troubles came on the heels of the failure of IndyMac, a big bank.
And, earlier this year, a run on investment bank Bear Stearns pushed the company to the edge of bankruptcy and into a take over by JPMorgan Chase, which was backed financially by the Fed. That was a controversial move that prompted critics to call it a government bailout, putting taxpayers money at risk.
The Fed, in new projections, now believes inflation will be higher this year than previously thought, with prices rising as high as 4.2 percent under one inflation measure.
Growth for the year will be sluggish -- at best 1.6 percent growth -- but not as bad as previously forecast, helped by the government's $168 billion stimulus, including rebates. The unemployment rate, which could rise as high as 5.7 percent this year, is the same as earlier projections.
At the same time, Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, sounded another warning that rising prices for energy and food are elevating inflation risks.
The situation, he said, poses "significant challenges" for Fed policymakers as they try to chart the best course for keeping the economy growing, while making sure inflation doesn't dangerously flare up. All the economy's problems, including slumping home values, which threaten to make people feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend in the months ahead, represent "significant downside risks" to economic growth.
Over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions.
On Wall Street, stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones industrials were down nearly 200 points in morning trading.
Inflation has remained high and "seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term," he warned.
Indeed, before Bernanke delivered his twice-a-year comprehensive economic assessment to Congress, the Labor Department reported wholesale prices jumped 1.8 percent in June. That left inflation rising over the past year at the fastest pace in more than a quarter-century.
"Given the high degree of uncertainty" about the Fed's economic outlook, Fed policymakers will need to carefully assess incoming information about inflation and economic growth, he said.
The Fed in June signaled an end to its nearly year long rate-cutting campaign because of growing concerns about inflation. Bernanke kept up his tough anti-inflation talk on Tuesday but stressed many other problems that could short circuit economic growth. He seemed to be keeping his options open in terms of rates. Given all the risky cross currents, economists believe the Fed will leave rates alone when they meet on Aug. 5.
Righting wobbly financial markets is key to getting the economy back on track, he said.
"In general, healthy economic growth depends on well-functioning financial markets," Bernanke said. "Consequently, helping the financial markets to return to more normal functioning will continue to be a top priority," he said.
Bernanke's testimony comes just two days after the Fed and the Treasury Department came to the rescue of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, offering to throw them a financial lifeline.
The companies hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half of the nation's total. The Bush administration is asking Congress to temporarily increase lines of credit to Fannie and Freddie and to let the government buy their stock. The Fed has offered to let the companies draw emergency loans.
The pledges of aid have raised concerns about the government's role in such financial problems and the risk to taxpayers.
Strengthening regulatory oversight of Fannie and Freddie, Bernanke said, is "job one." Congress is moving ahead on a broad housing rescue package that includes provisions to tighten regulation over the two companies. Bernanke said legislative efforts to help stabilize the housing market -- the biggest threat to the economy -- are of vital importance.
Bernanke, in the first day of back-to-back appearances on Capitol Hill, said investors are nervous in general because of the cloudy outlook for the economy and credit conditions, feeding a vicious cycle that can be hard to break.
"Many financial markets and institutions remain under considerable stress, in part because the outlook for the economy and thus for credit quality, remains uncertain."
The Fannie and Freddie troubles came on the heels of the failure of IndyMac, a big bank.
And, earlier this year, a run on investment bank Bear Stearns pushed the company to the edge of bankruptcy and into a take over by JPMorgan Chase, which was backed financially by the Fed. That was a controversial move that prompted critics to call it a government bailout, putting taxpayers money at risk.
The Fed, in new projections, now believes inflation will be higher this year than previously thought, with prices rising as high as 4.2 percent under one inflation measure.
Growth for the year will be sluggish -- at best 1.6 percent growth -- but not as bad as previously forecast, helped by the government's $168 billion stimulus, including rebates. The unemployment rate, which could rise as high as 5.7 percent this year, is the same as earlier projections.
Fannie, Freddie crisis not the last: Soros
Billionaire investor George Soros said that the crisis over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be the last, and noted that the broader credit meltdown will impact an already slowing United States economy.
The Treasury Department agreed to raise Fannie and Freddie's credit lines above the existing US$2.25 billion apiece and buy shares to strengthen their finances, if needed. The Federal Reserve offered to let the mortgage finance companies borrow at the rate it charges banks for direct loans.
The government's aggressive move on Sunday underscored problems plaguing the markets and the potential for them to send the US economy into a severe recession.
'This incident (with Fannie and Freddie) is not the last one,' Mr Soros said in a phone interview on Monday, adding the year-long global financial market turmoil represented 'the most serious financial crisis of our lifetime'.
'Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a solvency crisis not a liquidity crisis,' said Mr Soros. 'There's no problem in their borrowing. And in fact, insofar there is a problem, the Fed is there to provide the liquidity.'
That said, both Fannie and Freddie are 'extremely leveraged', he said. 'The deterioration in the housing market, the foreclosures are going to cause losses which exceed their equity,' said Mr Soros, whose famous bet against the British pound earned his Quantum Fund US$1 billion in 1992.
The government's drastic measures could keep the US dollar under pressure, Mr Soros added.
'I think the dollar is vulnerable because the economy is going into a recession and the actions of the authorities do involve the accumulation of debt,' he said. 'There is various ratios by which the creditworthiness of a country's assurances are deteriorating.'
Growing effect on economy
Mr Soros said the credit crisis is having a growing effect on the US economy, not just financial markets. 'It is an idle dream to think that you could have this kind of crisis without the real economy being affected,' he added.
All told, Mr Soros said Mr Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is in a bind.
'When he recognised the seriousness of the credit crisis, he acted very radically lowering interest rates and he used the tools that are at his disposal,' Mr Soros said.
However, now the 'armory' is depleted, he said adding that Mr Bernanke can't lower interest rates because of the effect it would have on the dollar and he can't raise interest rates because of the looming recession.
'Therefore, his options are limited - he is boxed in,' Mr Soros said.
The Treasury Department agreed to raise Fannie and Freddie's credit lines above the existing US$2.25 billion apiece and buy shares to strengthen their finances, if needed. The Federal Reserve offered to let the mortgage finance companies borrow at the rate it charges banks for direct loans.
The government's aggressive move on Sunday underscored problems plaguing the markets and the potential for them to send the US economy into a severe recession.
'This incident (with Fannie and Freddie) is not the last one,' Mr Soros said in a phone interview on Monday, adding the year-long global financial market turmoil represented 'the most serious financial crisis of our lifetime'.
'Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a solvency crisis not a liquidity crisis,' said Mr Soros. 'There's no problem in their borrowing. And in fact, insofar there is a problem, the Fed is there to provide the liquidity.'
That said, both Fannie and Freddie are 'extremely leveraged', he said. 'The deterioration in the housing market, the foreclosures are going to cause losses which exceed their equity,' said Mr Soros, whose famous bet against the British pound earned his Quantum Fund US$1 billion in 1992.
The government's drastic measures could keep the US dollar under pressure, Mr Soros added.
'I think the dollar is vulnerable because the economy is going into a recession and the actions of the authorities do involve the accumulation of debt,' he said. 'There is various ratios by which the creditworthiness of a country's assurances are deteriorating.'
Growing effect on economy
Mr Soros said the credit crisis is having a growing effect on the US economy, not just financial markets. 'It is an idle dream to think that you could have this kind of crisis without the real economy being affected,' he added.
All told, Mr Soros said Mr Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is in a bind.
'When he recognised the seriousness of the credit crisis, he acted very radically lowering interest rates and he used the tools that are at his disposal,' Mr Soros said.
However, now the 'armory' is depleted, he said adding that Mr Bernanke can't lower interest rates because of the effect it would have on the dollar and he can't raise interest rates because of the looming recession.
'Therefore, his options are limited - he is boxed in,' Mr Soros said.
Monday, July 14, 2008
咬定青山不放松
“咬定青山不放松，立根原在破岩中，千磨万击还坚劲，任尔东西南北风。”
这是清朝才子郑板桥，在他所画的一幅竹石图上的题诗。
这首诗将竹子高风亮节的个性，发挥得淋漓尽致，其中“咬定青山不放松”一句，常被引用以形容做事坚持到底的精神，最为人所熟识。
我特别欣赏“咬”字。
有一种猎犬，在咬到猎物时，在猎人到来之前，绝不松开牙齿，跟“咬定青山不放松”有异曲同工之妙。
我们做人做事，也一定要有“咬定青山不放松”的精神，才会有所成就。
理由是人有“三限”——“时间、精力、脑力”有限，除了天赋异禀的人之外，常人实无可能样样都精通。
如果样样都做，贪多务得，到头来是周身刀，没有一把利，倒不如专攻一门一科，登峰造极。
我们常用“一事无成”来形容一个失败的人，反过来说，“一事有成”岂不是成功的人生了吗？
所以，你在年轻的时候，就要经过谨慎的考量之后，选定一个行业，然后“咬定青山不放松”，把你全部的精力、时间、脑力倾注下去，坚持一生，少有不成功者。
我在做记者的第二年，观察老报人退休后的生活状况，知道单靠做报人的收入，不足以送四名儿女出国深造，告老离休时，恐怕还要为五斗米而折腰，所以我在记者工作之馀，把全部时间放在股票研究及股票投资上，我是以报业为经，股票为纬，编织兴趣与财经并驾齐驰的人生图景，如此过了数十年，从未言悔。
对事业狂热
要在你的志业上，坚持数十年，从不作改弦易辙之想，就一定要对他所选择的项目，有无穷的信心和狂热的豪情，否则，多数会落得半途而废。
我从来不怀疑股票是打工仔最好的投资管道。
你所选择的项目，如果局限性很大的话，那么，即使你做得最好，也只是“老鼠尾生疮，大晒有限”（粤语），你的所得，跟你所投入的资源、时间、精力、脑力不相衬，久而久之，你会产生“入错行”的感觉，多数会半途而废，那时候你损失最大的，还是时间，因为你已没有足够的时间改变跑道。
好的开始，是成功的一半，确有至理。
股票投资潜能无限，你的投资额，少则数百令吉，多则数亿令吉，海阔天空，任你遨游。
投资的范围也无限大，你可以投资于大马公司，也可以收购欧、美、澳、亚企业的股份，有无穷多的选择，大马就有不少人，靠汇丰银行的股息养老。
股票投资只要买对了，你就可以无所事事，财源滚滚来。
在时间上，也没有限制，你可以持有上市公司的股份数年至数十年。财富与日俱增。
你很难找到像股票那么多优点，那么多缺点，具有那么大的伸缩性，又那么简单易行的投资管道。
这就是股票引人入胜的地方。
如果你选择股票作为你的投资管道的话，要有成就，就一定要发展你自己的一套投资理念，作为你的指南针，这样你才不会有无所适从的感觉。
比如我是一个基本面投资者，在买进股票时，我对自己说：“我现在是参股做生意”，生意的好坏决定我的投资的成败。所以，我化全部时间和精神去研究有关公司的业务，我认为那才是最重要的。
我也是个反向思维者，我宁愿失去机会，也不愿高价买进。
我也很注重股息。
这是我的投资理念，每个人的处境、性格、看法、需求、年龄都不同，没有一种适合所有人的投资策略。不要去抄袭别人的理念，要发展适合于你的理念。理念无所谓优劣，只要是能长期为你带来效果的，就表示你已走对了路，坚持下去，走你自己的路，不要理会别人所走的路，因为别人的路未必适合于你。你是特别的，所以要有一套你自己的特别的理念。
惟有具有“咬定青山不放松”的精神，才有可能在波谲云诡的股票投资路上，走得更远。
这是清朝才子郑板桥，在他所画的一幅竹石图上的题诗。
这首诗将竹子高风亮节的个性，发挥得淋漓尽致，其中“咬定青山不放松”一句，常被引用以形容做事坚持到底的精神，最为人所熟识。
我特别欣赏“咬”字。
有一种猎犬，在咬到猎物时，在猎人到来之前，绝不松开牙齿，跟“咬定青山不放松”有异曲同工之妙。
我们做人做事，也一定要有“咬定青山不放松”的精神，才会有所成就。
理由是人有“三限”——“时间、精力、脑力”有限，除了天赋异禀的人之外，常人实无可能样样都精通。
如果样样都做，贪多务得，到头来是周身刀，没有一把利，倒不如专攻一门一科，登峰造极。
我们常用“一事无成”来形容一个失败的人，反过来说，“一事有成”岂不是成功的人生了吗？
所以，你在年轻的时候，就要经过谨慎的考量之后，选定一个行业，然后“咬定青山不放松”，把你全部的精力、时间、脑力倾注下去，坚持一生，少有不成功者。
我在做记者的第二年，观察老报人退休后的生活状况，知道单靠做报人的收入，不足以送四名儿女出国深造，告老离休时，恐怕还要为五斗米而折腰，所以我在记者工作之馀，把全部时间放在股票研究及股票投资上，我是以报业为经，股票为纬，编织兴趣与财经并驾齐驰的人生图景，如此过了数十年，从未言悔。
对事业狂热
要在你的志业上，坚持数十年，从不作改弦易辙之想，就一定要对他所选择的项目，有无穷的信心和狂热的豪情，否则，多数会落得半途而废。
我从来不怀疑股票是打工仔最好的投资管道。
你所选择的项目，如果局限性很大的话，那么，即使你做得最好，也只是“老鼠尾生疮，大晒有限”（粤语），你的所得，跟你所投入的资源、时间、精力、脑力不相衬，久而久之，你会产生“入错行”的感觉，多数会半途而废，那时候你损失最大的，还是时间，因为你已没有足够的时间改变跑道。
好的开始，是成功的一半，确有至理。
股票投资潜能无限，你的投资额，少则数百令吉，多则数亿令吉，海阔天空，任你遨游。
投资的范围也无限大，你可以投资于大马公司，也可以收购欧、美、澳、亚企业的股份，有无穷多的选择，大马就有不少人，靠汇丰银行的股息养老。
股票投资只要买对了，你就可以无所事事，财源滚滚来。
在时间上，也没有限制，你可以持有上市公司的股份数年至数十年。财富与日俱增。
你很难找到像股票那么多优点，那么多缺点，具有那么大的伸缩性，又那么简单易行的投资管道。
这就是股票引人入胜的地方。
如果你选择股票作为你的投资管道的话，要有成就，就一定要发展你自己的一套投资理念，作为你的指南针，这样你才不会有无所适从的感觉。
比如我是一个基本面投资者，在买进股票时，我对自己说：“我现在是参股做生意”，生意的好坏决定我的投资的成败。所以，我化全部时间和精神去研究有关公司的业务，我认为那才是最重要的。
我也是个反向思维者，我宁愿失去机会，也不愿高价买进。
我也很注重股息。
这是我的投资理念，每个人的处境、性格、看法、需求、年龄都不同，没有一种适合所有人的投资策略。不要去抄袭别人的理念，要发展适合于你的理念。理念无所谓优劣，只要是能长期为你带来效果的，就表示你已走对了路，坚持下去，走你自己的路，不要理会别人所走的路，因为别人的路未必适合于你。你是特别的，所以要有一套你自己的特别的理念。
惟有具有“咬定青山不放松”的精神，才有可能在波谲云诡的股票投资路上，走得更远。
Carry Nears A Breakout As Earnings Gear Up And Credit Fears Rise
While the DailyFX Carry Trade Index was modestly higher over the past week, the strategy (and overall risk sentiment) is on the verge of a breakout with earnings season kicking off and signs of a deepening financial crisis popping up all over the market. Today, the carry index stood at 28,935 – 101 points above last Friday’s level. However, looking at the chart below, it is easy to grasp the pressure building behind an inevitable break in the market’s cautious stance.
Since May, the basket has cut an ascending wedge with a horizontal resistance around 29,050. Perhaps offering a bias for the eventual trend development, market condition indicators are actually working their way lower despite improvements seen this past week. USDJPY risk reversals corrected considerably from its highest levels since last October and the volatility index is holding above the critical 10 percent figure.
The rebound in risk appetite seen from the March swing low has been slowly curbed by various signs that credit conditions and a lack of liquidity are still burdening the financial markets. Recently, a Bank of England credit report forecasted that the credit market – the life blood of investment – would worsen through the third quarter.
Such a forecast is troubling considering European banks are paying the highest prices in a decade to raise capital just to meet reserve requirements, while the governmentally sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the US are paying record yields in their own efforts to fortify reserves.
In the weeks ahead, speculation that these two lenders may require a government bailout or face bankruptcy will help to define the overall direction of risk trends; and the debate is lively. St. Louis Fed President William Poole has suggested the government step in now as the companies are essentially insolvent. Another driver for risk trends and the carry trade will be banks’ second quarter earnings numbers, which start to hit the wires next week.
Since May, the basket has cut an ascending wedge with a horizontal resistance around 29,050. Perhaps offering a bias for the eventual trend development, market condition indicators are actually working their way lower despite improvements seen this past week. USDJPY risk reversals corrected considerably from its highest levels since last October and the volatility index is holding above the critical 10 percent figure.
The rebound in risk appetite seen from the March swing low has been slowly curbed by various signs that credit conditions and a lack of liquidity are still burdening the financial markets. Recently, a Bank of England credit report forecasted that the credit market – the life blood of investment – would worsen through the third quarter.
Such a forecast is troubling considering European banks are paying the highest prices in a decade to raise capital just to meet reserve requirements, while the governmentally sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the US are paying record yields in their own efforts to fortify reserves.
In the weeks ahead, speculation that these two lenders may require a government bailout or face bankruptcy will help to define the overall direction of risk trends; and the debate is lively. St. Louis Fed President William Poole has suggested the government step in now as the companies are essentially insolvent. Another driver for risk trends and the carry trade will be banks’ second quarter earnings numbers, which start to hit the wires next week.
DJIA at make or break level
We had upgraded our support level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) towards 11,100 from the 10,800-10,900 range and were expecting a rebound off that level. While the index closed at 11,000 after dipping to an intra-day low of 10,977, the wave pattern did not indicate that a significant low was in place.
From a psychological perspective, the selldown on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is reminiscent of the steep selldown on Bear Sterns at March lows. Both were the most actively traded stocks on NYSE but rebounded substantially above their lows on record volume.
The VIX index, which measures option volatility on the S&P100, however has not spiked up in a significant manner and still remains below January and March lows. Typically, a spike in VIX coincides with a significant low. We have not seen this yet.
At this juncture, the DJIA is at a make or break level. A close below 11,100 could see the index decline towards 10,800 before any meaningful rebound ensues. Until, it is shown that the 11,100 level can be held for two consecutive days, we recommend staying on the sidelines.
For the Straits Times Index (FSSTI), it has managed to hold above the 2,880 level despite a host of bad news, so that is encouraging. However, we would prefer to take the lead from chart formations on the US and adopt a wait and see stance for the early part of the week.
From a psychological perspective, the selldown on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is reminiscent of the steep selldown on Bear Sterns at March lows. Both were the most actively traded stocks on NYSE but rebounded substantially above their lows on record volume.
The VIX index, which measures option volatility on the S&P100, however has not spiked up in a significant manner and still remains below January and March lows. Typically, a spike in VIX coincides with a significant low. We have not seen this yet.
At this juncture, the DJIA is at a make or break level. A close below 11,100 could see the index decline towards 10,800 before any meaningful rebound ensues. Until, it is shown that the 11,100 level can be held for two consecutive days, we recommend staying on the sidelines.
For the Straits Times Index (FSSTI), it has managed to hold above the 2,880 level despite a host of bad news, so that is encouraging. However, we would prefer to take the lead from chart formations on the US and adopt a wait and see stance for the early part of the week.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
「 曾 氏 通 道 」 图的详细内容:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/thomaswu0530/%E6%9B%BE%E6%B0%8F%E9%80%9A%E9%81%93%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99_%28support_all-in-one%29?ro=1
自制曾渊沧教授的 曾氏通道
1. 到yahoo.com.hk的财经。
2. 找HANGSENG INDEX的过往股价。
3. 在网页右下角click”下载试算表(Spreadsheet)版本” download 恒指从1986年到即日的收市价。
4. 打开excel file，delete “Open, High,Low,Close,Volume”的column。
5. 把资料按”递增排序”。
6. 把每日的恒指收市价TAKE natutal LOG (公式为”= ln(b2)” ==> C column。
7. 绘图精灵 → XY散点图 → plot 点。
8. 按”图表” → “加上趋势线” → click “线性”，搞掂，enjoy!
自制曾渊沧教授的 曾氏通道
1. 到yahoo.com.hk的财经。
2. 找HANGSENG INDEX的过往股价。
3. 在网页右下角click”下载试算表(Spreadsheet)版本” download 恒指从1986年到即日的收市价。
4. 打开excel file，delete “Open, High,Low,Close,Volume”的column。
5. 把资料按”递增排序”。
6. 把每日的恒指收市价TAKE natutal LOG (公式为”= ln(b2)” ==> C column。
7. 绘图精灵 → XY散点图 → plot 点。
8. 按”图表” → “加上趋势线” → click “线性”，搞掂，enjoy!
曾渊沧:熊市二期是陷阱还是机会
还记得恒指升上26000点时,大摩出报告说年底前见30000点。上周五,恒指回调至25000点,大摩又出报告将多只大蓝筹股降级,其中包括汇丰、港交所、国泰。大户翻云覆雨,市场好,诱你入市;市场清淡,踏上一脚。
不过,由于恒指由2万点上升至26000点以上的过程实在太快,许多人都错失了入市的机会,更有不少人在恒指24000点左右卖掉了手中的股票,等待调整,希望在调整之后入市。这正是熊市二期的特征。
熊市二期的战略很值得讨论,不同人有不同的做法。有人认为,熊市二期是个陷阱,引诱你追货。让你在低价入货,然后趁高出货获利,或者让你手上的“蟹货”得以解套。
认为熊市二期是陷阱的理论是因为熊市一期股市狂泻时,不少人在低价沽出股票。他们忍受不住股市狂跌的恐慌情绪,只好卖股减压。一个人如果在低价时卖股,他不可能有足够的冷静和思维能力在更低价格入市。比如,你在恒指22000点的时候卖股票,就不可能有胆量在21000点,在3月18日的恐慌情绪中入市。之后,当恒指开始回升,你也不可能也不敢入市。因为你沽售股票是在22000点,当时你是在恐慌性地抛售。因此,就算恒指回升至24000点,你的恐慌心理仍未消失。只有当恒指如道氏理论所言,回升至下跌幅度50%以上时,你才会开始克服恐慌心态,但是取而代之的是贪婪。
你在22000点卖股票,且不论是赚还是亏,手上总有了点现金,有了钱就手痒,就会有贪念。这时候,大行也会出来努力唱好。一般而言,大行唱好之后的短时间,股市向上的机会是大一些的。因为大行唱好之后就入市买股,以证明他们的眼光是准确的。但是,当你以更高价追货的时候,大行就开始脱手,但是嘴上还会继续唱好。当恒指目标价一再推高,大行就会把手里的股票静悄悄地放出来,让你接货。去年,多少大行高唱恒指要到达36000点,甚至40000点?我想,大家应该还是记忆犹新吧。如果你是上述那种人,熊市二期绝对是一个陷阱。
不过,如果你有能力在恒指30000点、28000点、26000点,最差是24000点卖股票的话,你就有胆量在21000点入市捕捉熊市二期的反弹。因为你沽售的价格比较高,21000点再入市就算有足够的折扣。或者你在整个熊市一期阶段都坚守不卖,熊市二期对你来说也是个机会,是可以以较高的价格卖股票的。
无论是陷阱,还是机会,其实都靠人把握。
不过,由于恒指由2万点上升至26000点以上的过程实在太快,许多人都错失了入市的机会,更有不少人在恒指24000点左右卖掉了手中的股票,等待调整,希望在调整之后入市。这正是熊市二期的特征。
熊市二期的战略很值得讨论,不同人有不同的做法。有人认为,熊市二期是个陷阱,引诱你追货。让你在低价入货,然后趁高出货获利,或者让你手上的“蟹货”得以解套。
认为熊市二期是陷阱的理论是因为熊市一期股市狂泻时,不少人在低价沽出股票。他们忍受不住股市狂跌的恐慌情绪,只好卖股减压。一个人如果在低价时卖股,他不可能有足够的冷静和思维能力在更低价格入市。比如,你在恒指22000点的时候卖股票,就不可能有胆量在21000点,在3月18日的恐慌情绪中入市。之后,当恒指开始回升,你也不可能也不敢入市。因为你沽售股票是在22000点,当时你是在恐慌性地抛售。因此,就算恒指回升至24000点,你的恐慌心理仍未消失。只有当恒指如道氏理论所言,回升至下跌幅度50%以上时,你才会开始克服恐慌心态,但是取而代之的是贪婪。
你在22000点卖股票,且不论是赚还是亏,手上总有了点现金,有了钱就手痒,就会有贪念。这时候,大行也会出来努力唱好。一般而言,大行唱好之后的短时间,股市向上的机会是大一些的。因为大行唱好之后就入市买股,以证明他们的眼光是准确的。但是,当你以更高价追货的时候,大行就开始脱手,但是嘴上还会继续唱好。当恒指目标价一再推高,大行就会把手里的股票静悄悄地放出来,让你接货。去年,多少大行高唱恒指要到达36000点,甚至40000点?我想,大家应该还是记忆犹新吧。如果你是上述那种人,熊市二期绝对是一个陷阱。
不过,如果你有能力在恒指30000点、28000点、26000点,最差是24000点卖股票的话,你就有胆量在21000点入市捕捉熊市二期的反弹。因为你沽售的价格比较高,21000点再入市就算有足够的折扣。或者你在整个熊市一期阶段都坚守不卖,熊市二期对你来说也是个机会,是可以以较高的价格卖股票的。
无论是陷阱,还是机会,其实都靠人把握。
曹仁超畅谈三十年驰骋金融市场
曹仁超投资戒条
一、无论情况如何紧记沟上唔沟落。
二、股票市场系赚钱地方 , 因此绝对要跟红顶白而非锄强扶弱 , 几时都应吸纳强势股，沽出弱势股。
三、持有蚀本股不放有两大损失： A、股价上既损失 , B、失去将资金投资其它项目既损失。因此绝对要止蚀。
四、股市唔系低价买入高价卖出既地方 ( 冇人做得到 ) , 应该高价买入更高价卖出 , 因此宜高追不宜趁低买入。
五、牛市中错失获利机会冇有怕 , 因为下一浪更高 ; 熊市中宁可赚少D， 亦不应太迟离市。
六、股市表现可能同自己想法背驰好耐 , 所以淡市莫估底 , 旺市莫估顶。
七、第一次出现裂口上升时不妨买入 , 如出现制裂回落系时候离开。
八、旺市时不妨胆大D， 因为形势在我 , 淡市时少玩。
九、投资成功先了解基本因素 , 再利用技术分析决定买卖时机 , 只识技术分析唔了解基本因素者 , 只系花拳绣腿 ( 睇得但唔打得 ) 。
十、升市将尽小心「单日转向」或「单周转向」走势 , 通常几有用。最简单的技术分析最有用 , 太复杂的技术分析只系用黎吓初学者。
十一、 了解群众心理亦十分有用 , 因群众常常睇错市。
十二、止蚀唔止赚 , 通常卖出之后股价才大升 , 我地少赚 50% 或以上。获利回吐易 , 止蚀卖出难 , 只有克服上述心理 , 才能在股市立足。
庞 ：很多读者和我有很多客户，都一直看曹生你的专栏，你过去提出很多好建议，一直都赚了钱。目前新一代的投资多着眼于个人理财，其实，个人理财为何如此重要呢？年青一代在学校又无学习，我们应该何时开始制定个人理财计划？个人理财的范围应该怎样呢？
曹 ：在现代商业社会，如果你要生活愉快，我相信最好是拥有一定数量的金钱。譬如说，你想约女朋友渡过一个很好的烛光晚餐；或者你突然间决定暑假去海外旅行；当子女长大了，他们希望去外国读书；甚至谈婚论嫁，你都希望搞得富丽堂煌；如果你手上有笔钱，我相信，起码令你生活更加愉快。
如何发掘第一桶金
庞 ：但怎样得到第一笔钱？即所谓的第一桶金呢？
曹 ：我个人经常有个愿望，最好有父荫。如果上一代努力辛勤，留下一笔遗产给我们，这是很开心的事。不过，我相信，不是每一个人都有父荫，所以，自己努力去建立一笔财产都好重要。
庞 ：嗯。
曹 ：记得我离开中学时，看到电视上，有一间银行买广告叫人储蓄，说储蓄可以致富，储蓄有亭台楼阁，积少成多，日后富甲一方。那时候，我觉得这个是天大的笑话，因为由第二次世界大战开始之后，凯恩斯的信徒，就已经主宰全世界所有自由经济国家的决策权，他们经常利用赤字预算，去刺激经济成长，这成为了中央银行既定的政策。长期来说，存款利率一定低过通胀，以一百元为例，银行给你五厘息，你一年后收回一百零五元；但香港的通胀率有百分之八，所以你得回来的实质购买能力祇得九十六点六元。
如果你成世都希望储蓄的话，根本是参加一场永远打不赢的仗；靠储蓄致富，只是银行家的口吻，这就是个人理财慢慢兴起的最大理由。
庞 ：如果个人理财照你所讲，是希望投资能够高过通胀，当然有两种做法。有些人可能拼搏一些，拼命工作去创业，甚至主动拿出资金找投资机会；但有些人却不会那么拼搏，有多余钱才去投资，其实两种做法有甚么分别呢？
曹 ：所谓吃得苦中苦，方为人上人，很多人都想做老板。
庞 ：对呀！
曹 ：坦白说，上市公司只得五百几间，想成功，机会率不是那么高；所以，各位在做老板之前，最好自己问一问，本身是不是大富大贵的人。以普通人来讲，我都主张做「人中人」好些，「人中人」即是说做中产阶级，打份工。以现在香港人的收入来说，我相信，储蓄十万元，三几年间都应该可以达到目标，剩下来的就是福利的问题；如果你将十万元，每年希望升值百分之二十的话，十年之后已经变成六十二万、二十年后是三百八十万、三十年后就二千三百万。
庞 ：很厉害！
曹 ：换言之，我相信很多朋友，大部分在自己有生之年，都可以成为千万富翁，不过要清楚，三十年后的二千三百万元购买力，大约等于目前五百几万，数目不是很大！至于说，何时开始做投资理财，我认为越早越好，二十岁开始、五十岁已经是千万富翁；相反来说，如果你五十岁才开始的话，到八十岁才做到千万富翁。
有计划成功在握
庞 ：我自己都试过，二十岁的时候赚到一些钱，就去买架靓车，或者花掉所有钱，这样又如何储蓄得到第一笔钱？对年青人来说，有时的确很难做，又要悭、不要乱花钱、不要带女朋友去看戏、去行街、这样，年青人如何储到足够的投资本钱？
曹 ：做「人上人」就辛苦，如果你想做「人下人」的话，便很容易。我自己打开电视机，见到很多老人家靠公援金过活，内心有时都感到几闷。相信大部分的老人家，他们过去都很努力，为何如今会如此凄凉？最大的原因是他们不懂得个人理财，结果辛辛苦苦储蓄的钱，在通货膨胀蚕食之下，已经完全失去购买能力，变成年老无依，的确很可怜。我自己认为，传媒有责任告诉读者或听众，如果你越早开始捱那三几年，你这一世都会很开心；相反来说，如果你一开始的时候，便胡乱花钱，那么，我就好担心，到你六、七十岁的时候，大有可能沦为「人下人」。
庞 ：曹生、七十年代跟八十年代，九十年代比较，个人理财究竟有什么不同？其实，过往有什么经验，仍然值得我们在目前九十年代参考呢？
曹 ：七十年代，可以说经历了高通胀时代，最主要一点，我相信与一九七一年美元同黄金脱有关，所以，一切实物都成为投资对象，好像黄金、古董、名画、物业、股票，可以说整个方针是在保值方面。
作为香港人，最好的投资当然是黄金，七零年的时候，黄金二百几元一盎斯，到一九八零年已经升至四千八百元，升幅接近二十倍，可以说，除了石油之外，没有其它的投资有这么大的升幅。但是，到了八十年代，美国的货币政策改变了，美国联邦储备局利用高息去压制通胀，所以高通胀时代便告结束了。另一方面，利率亦由高峰期一步一步回落，在息口向下的情形下，当然买楼、买股票最好。记得在八四、八五时，当我叫人买楼时，那时楼价六百几元一呎，但到九四年第一季，每尺楼价已经见六千几元。
庞 ：十倍升幅！
曹 ：对。恒生指数当时是八百点，九四年时已经见万二千点，升幅十五倍。虽然比不上七十年代金价的升幅，但相信是另一个致富机会。问题是到了九十年代，香港经济亦进入了成熟期，那些有十几倍升幅的投资已很难存在，好像大家坐缆车，坐了上山顶之后，就打圈圈，望落太平山下，景色无限，但是你想更上一层楼便相当困难了！
登山远望美景无穷
庞 ：这个比喻真是很贴切！如果我整日在山顶打圈，又要做个人理财，通胀虽低但仍然存在，有百份之七左右。究竟在现时来说，应如何投资？应该投资中国，或是放眼世界呢？
曹 ：可以说，香港高速增长期已成过去，相信最后踏入稳定增长期，未来当然还有机会，但不容易把握，以香港的发展经验，我相信亚太区已经遍地开花了，如果我们用从香港获得的经验再看南韩、台湾、马来西亚，泰国，印尼，他们是正在重复过去一、二十年香港发生的事，我们以过来人的身份去到这些地方投资，相信占了很大的便宜。
庞 ：今天，很多香港人都去过星马泰旅游，经常看到这些地方，譬如过去我们去台湾的时候，当地的发展与今日比较已经不同，其它东协的市场亦一样。我想问一问，目前在个人理财方面，包括青年人、壮年同老年人、在策略上有没有什么不同呢？
曹 ：我自己就相信「少壮不努力，老大徒悲伤」的话，所以，我很鼓励年青人一离开学校的时候，省吃俭用三、几年，储蓄第一笔资金，就开始制定理财计划；因为人到壮年时，通常负担相当大，譬如结了婚、有子女、或者正在供层楼呀︰︰︰
庞 ：这样很难储蓄的？
曹 ：储蓄就很辛苦。至于老人家，到年纪大的时候再开始计划理财，我担心时间方面对他们很不利，所以，我很鼓励年青人一开始的时候，就订立自己的个人理财计划，这样到中年、老年，你就可以享受黄金岁月，当你年纪大的时候，你再将自己二、三十年的经验传给下一代，帮助他们建立正确的理财方法，一家大小的生活都好愉快。
庞 ：这就是说，我们先苦后甜，先吃少少苦头，后来的果实应该不错了！
曹 ：对。
庞 ：打工仔同创业的人有什么不同？不同性别对个人理财有没有影响和分别呢？
曹 ：打工仔同创业的人根本是两类人。一般的创业者，除了你有父荫之外，开始创业的时候，资金通常都不足够，如果在那一刻，叫他再拿一些钱作其它投资的话，便相当辛苦。所以，我唯一的忠告是希望他埋头苦干，所谓「精诚所至、金石为开」，只要努力的话，我相信创业都可以成功的。
至于男与女之间，香港基本上已经到了男女平等的阶段，所以分别不大。然而性格方面，男女始终有别，所以，我主张，最好夫妻档，以免日后为了金钱而伤脑筋，最好采用有限公司，因为香港组织一间有限公司成本不大；这样，男的性格就进取，女的性格就稳健，组合最完美。
庞 ：对。这样就有平衡的作用。
曹 ：是。
庞 ：如果有财产，即已经有一笔钱的人又应如何理财？
曹 ：这个世界上，不同的人最大的分别，就是你有钱和无钱。假设你有一千万以上的话，可以说钱的作用就越来越小。譬如你住的房屋可能大一些，或者说你坐Benz、我就驾日本车；你有游艇、我没有。至于有一亿元以上，我的感觉就只不过是数字游戏，可以说，钱能够买的东西你已经可以买到；至于钱买不到的东西，你更富有都无办法买到。
我的想法是，以普通人来讲，当你的财富打破了一千万关之后，我认为人生追求的目标，应该由金钱转移到其它的地方，例如你自己的健康、你家庭生活是不是愉快、对子女之间的关怀是否足够，对朋友之间的帮助有无做到等，以免劳碌一生，除了金钱之外，一片空白。
顺其自然可发挥潜力
庞 ：但是，目前刚刚毕业的年青人，除了你刚才讲节俭一点、储蓄多一些钱之外，怎样可以快一点赚到第一桶金呢？其实从事哪一个行业较好？或者，会不会香港目前的薪酬水平，已不像以往那十几年般，每年有十几个百份点的增长，这样，我不如去中国做事？或到一些新兴市场工作，包食包住，我们就容易储到钱？
曹 ：我在过去一、二十年常常收到读者的来信，问相同的问题，通常我的答复都认为：「有心栽花花不发；无心插柳柳成荫」。我相信，二十五年前谭咏麟先生都不知道唱歌原来可以发达的。
庞 ：有个红馆呀。
曹 ：我相信成龙都不知道，原来打功夫亦可以发达。今时今日，张德培先生的成就，已清楚告诉我们，原来打网球也可以发达的。所以我认为，不要勉强自己做一些自己不喜欢做的事。这个世界谋事在人、成事在天；至于你努力专心于自己有兴趣的事业，我想迟早都有时来运到的一天。如果你一味只望发达，一时好彩，你赚到少少钱，但我相信始终不是长远之计。
庞 ：所以最好是自己勤力些，同找到自己的兴趣，一路发挥，迟早有机会出头，所谓行行出状元。九七以后，中国已收回香港的主权，我们个人理财的策略有没有改变呢？会不会放眼中国更有作为？因为中国的经济增长每年都有百份之十，高速增长。你的看法如何呢？
曹 ：我相信，香港回归中国之后，英治时代在香港结束，大家希望见到的，是港治时代的开始。过去因为政治因素，英资在香港经济及投资方面占了不少便宜，日后这个优势肯定会失去。但是，我们希望见到香港可以建立一个公平竞争的社会，即是许家屯先生同我们写那篇文章所讲：「白晋敬酒、能者绝欢」，我不希望见到中资企业取代了英资的地位，走了一班旧人，来了一班新贵。
如果九七年香港还保持公平竞争的制度，我相信，未来香港的前途还是光明的。如果今时今日良好的公务员制度受到影响，我们坚信的法治精神受到动摇，一步一步走向金权政治，有财的人与有势的人勾结在一起，令到社会充满不公平的话，这样，我便担心九七后，香港的前途是悲观的。到目前为止，我还未确知道香港走哪个方向，所以我相信，理财策略要迟一两年后，才可以跟大家深入讨论。
善用止蚀立于不败
庞 ：暂时是不是应该按兵不动呢？
曹 ：我相信亚太区提供了很多良机，因此，大家不妨利用一两年的时间，建立自己对整个亚太区经济发展的了解，这对大家将来一定有帮助。
庞 ：个人理财有没有什么必胜的投资法？怎样做法可使到自己起码立于不败之地呢？
曹 ：必胜术我就无啦！不败之地我就有，其实做法很简单，善用止蚀。任何投资，如果说，价格跌破了百分之十或者百分之十五，你就止蚀。我自己就很喜欢利用十八日平均数，任何股票投资了后，如果股价跌破十八天平均数，通常我都会卖回出去。
庞 ：卖回出去？
曹 ：对。
庞 ：曹先生、你对大家在投资方面有什么忠告呢？
曹 ：我记得胡汉辉先生跟我说过：「能知三日事富贵万千年」，所以，这个世界是无先知的。真正成功的人都有良好策略，而不是盲目跟大队；所以，在事前对事件了解多一些，就好过事后后悔。
庞 ：大家在投资之前一定做好功课啦！
曹 ：对。
庞 ：做足功课，好的开始就是成功的一半。
曹 ：对啦、对啦！
庞 ：这个是很重要的。在个人理财方面，刚才曹生讲了，当有蚀价的时候就应该止蚀，有句说话大家都听过：「赚就赚粒糖、蚀就蚀间厂」。这一点值得大家记取。
曹 ：是。
庞 ：赚钱的时候，大家赚少少就卖出；但蚀的时候，就死持不放，于是蚀得更惨了！
曹 ：对！
庞 ：所以止蚀这个方法很重要。曹生、你觉得个人理财怎样算成功？怎样算失败呢？
曹 ：有人喜欢搵快钱，我记得以前帮香港电台做一个「雄财伟略」的节目时，在最后一辑，我对他们讲过几句说话，就是「种树与种花」。
庞 ：种树和种花又与投资有什么关系？
曹 ：一个人如果想生活愉快，拥有一棵树是会几开心的，这棵树每年能够提供很多果实，而且还源源不断，替你照顾下一代！
庞 ：有树荫了！
曹 ：对！
庞 ：但树需要很久去培育，所谓「十年树木、百年树人」；对完成短期的目标，或者说，如何运用短期的资金，赚到第一桶金呢？
曹 ：所以这就需要去种花了！种花的好处是一两个月的辛劳，你立刻见到成果，但是一场风吹雨打，又可能使你的成果一败涂地。因此，在一棵树未成长的时候，你需要种些花去帮补一下自己。
庞 ：而且还要分散投资，种植很多种花。
曹 ：对呀！
庞 ：世界上有一些著名的投资专家，譬如华伦巴菲特，他自己都强调长线投资，他的威水史就是在四十年内，赚到一百四十亿美金的资产。其实你给他一万元，一万元的投资，在四十年内赚了八十倍，已经八千万了。他觉得，每个人都可以投资致富，祇要勤力、坚毅、理性、自律！有这些性格就行！曹生个人对此有何看法？
曹 ：听你所讲好像很惊人，因为你所讲是八十倍回报。资金有几百亿！其实这不外是福利。祇要你每年令自己的财产增长百份之二十五，四十年后你就是第二个巴菲特。关键是持之以恒，不是一年，而是年年百份之廿五，四十年后，你的财富已经可以同巴菲特媲美。
庞 ：甚至比他更厉害！
曹 ：相信如此。
跟投资项目拍拖或做人世
庞 ：目前来讲，是信息的时代，好的信息就等于财富，使你很容易赚到钱。但因信息爆炸，譬如，报章又有那么多投资专家，他们之中，有些看好、有些却看淡，作为普通投资者如何拣选这些信息，帮助自己去投资？你有什么忠告？或者有什么心得？
曹 ：我觉得，太多信息反而累事。各位都有拍拖的经验，两人不见面的时候，真是天下美女何其多；但可以做你太太的，我相信祇有一个。你未结婚之前比些心机去拣，拣一个同你性格、理想方面都相当匹配；这样，你跟她／他共同生活，我相信婚姻才会愉快。另一方面，若你朝秦暮楚，我相信到今时今日，你的婚姻生活都不会愉快。
拣选信息好、拣选投资基金经理也好、或者拣股票亦好，道理一样。你面对几百只股票，信息爆炸；过千的基金，总有些是适合你的。你慢慢拣到适合自己的项目，你去与它长期相处，我相信未来二、三十年，大家会好愉快。
庞 ：即是说，自己开首的时候要花多些时间，去看一下、拣选一下、同时跟它拍一拍拖，了解清楚，然后先慢慢委托终身，长期相处。
曹 ：拍拖时就不妨多心，结了婚之后就应该一条心。
庞 ：最后，我就想问曹生一个问题，你自己在报纸上写专栏教人投资，其实同你自己的投资有什么不同？如何做到言与行一样，如出一辙，而且能够收赚钱效果呢？
曹 ：我刚刚开始写投资专栏时，犯过所有今时今日投资者应该犯的错误，经过自己痛苦的摸索后，我才知道短线与长线的分别。可以说，经过二十几年之后，我目前手上的投资，大部分都是中长线的。短线、我就已经很少涉及！经验这样的东西需要时间去累积。年青人不妨多尝试，看有哪一样东西适合自己。但经过一段时间后，你会摸索到自己的投资策略，然后持之以恒，相信到了老年阶段，各位的身家都应该不会少！
一、无论情况如何紧记沟上唔沟落。
二、股票市场系赚钱地方 , 因此绝对要跟红顶白而非锄强扶弱 , 几时都应吸纳强势股，沽出弱势股。
三、持有蚀本股不放有两大损失： A、股价上既损失 , B、失去将资金投资其它项目既损失。因此绝对要止蚀。
四、股市唔系低价买入高价卖出既地方 ( 冇人做得到 ) , 应该高价买入更高价卖出 , 因此宜高追不宜趁低买入。
五、牛市中错失获利机会冇有怕 , 因为下一浪更高 ; 熊市中宁可赚少D， 亦不应太迟离市。
六、股市表现可能同自己想法背驰好耐 , 所以淡市莫估底 , 旺市莫估顶。
七、第一次出现裂口上升时不妨买入 , 如出现制裂回落系时候离开。
八、旺市时不妨胆大D， 因为形势在我 , 淡市时少玩。
九、投资成功先了解基本因素 , 再利用技术分析决定买卖时机 , 只识技术分析唔了解基本因素者 , 只系花拳绣腿 ( 睇得但唔打得 ) 。
十、升市将尽小心「单日转向」或「单周转向」走势 , 通常几有用。最简单的技术分析最有用 , 太复杂的技术分析只系用黎吓初学者。
十一、 了解群众心理亦十分有用 , 因群众常常睇错市。
十二、止蚀唔止赚 , 通常卖出之后股价才大升 , 我地少赚 50% 或以上。获利回吐易 , 止蚀卖出难 , 只有克服上述心理 , 才能在股市立足。
庞 ：很多读者和我有很多客户，都一直看曹生你的专栏，你过去提出很多好建议，一直都赚了钱。目前新一代的投资多着眼于个人理财，其实，个人理财为何如此重要呢？年青一代在学校又无学习，我们应该何时开始制定个人理财计划？个人理财的范围应该怎样呢？
曹 ：在现代商业社会，如果你要生活愉快，我相信最好是拥有一定数量的金钱。譬如说，你想约女朋友渡过一个很好的烛光晚餐；或者你突然间决定暑假去海外旅行；当子女长大了，他们希望去外国读书；甚至谈婚论嫁，你都希望搞得富丽堂煌；如果你手上有笔钱，我相信，起码令你生活更加愉快。
如何发掘第一桶金
庞 ：但怎样得到第一笔钱？即所谓的第一桶金呢？
曹 ：我个人经常有个愿望，最好有父荫。如果上一代努力辛勤，留下一笔遗产给我们，这是很开心的事。不过，我相信，不是每一个人都有父荫，所以，自己努力去建立一笔财产都好重要。
庞 ：嗯。
曹 ：记得我离开中学时，看到电视上，有一间银行买广告叫人储蓄，说储蓄可以致富，储蓄有亭台楼阁，积少成多，日后富甲一方。那时候，我觉得这个是天大的笑话，因为由第二次世界大战开始之后，凯恩斯的信徒，就已经主宰全世界所有自由经济国家的决策权，他们经常利用赤字预算，去刺激经济成长，这成为了中央银行既定的政策。长期来说，存款利率一定低过通胀，以一百元为例，银行给你五厘息，你一年后收回一百零五元；但香港的通胀率有百分之八，所以你得回来的实质购买能力祇得九十六点六元。
如果你成世都希望储蓄的话，根本是参加一场永远打不赢的仗；靠储蓄致富，只是银行家的口吻，这就是个人理财慢慢兴起的最大理由。
庞 ：如果个人理财照你所讲，是希望投资能够高过通胀，当然有两种做法。有些人可能拼搏一些，拼命工作去创业，甚至主动拿出资金找投资机会；但有些人却不会那么拼搏，有多余钱才去投资，其实两种做法有甚么分别呢？
曹 ：所谓吃得苦中苦，方为人上人，很多人都想做老板。
庞 ：对呀！
曹 ：坦白说，上市公司只得五百几间，想成功，机会率不是那么高；所以，各位在做老板之前，最好自己问一问，本身是不是大富大贵的人。以普通人来讲，我都主张做「人中人」好些，「人中人」即是说做中产阶级，打份工。以现在香港人的收入来说，我相信，储蓄十万元，三几年间都应该可以达到目标，剩下来的就是福利的问题；如果你将十万元，每年希望升值百分之二十的话，十年之后已经变成六十二万、二十年后是三百八十万、三十年后就二千三百万。
庞 ：很厉害！
曹 ：换言之，我相信很多朋友，大部分在自己有生之年，都可以成为千万富翁，不过要清楚，三十年后的二千三百万元购买力，大约等于目前五百几万，数目不是很大！至于说，何时开始做投资理财，我认为越早越好，二十岁开始、五十岁已经是千万富翁；相反来说，如果你五十岁才开始的话，到八十岁才做到千万富翁。
有计划成功在握
庞 ：我自己都试过，二十岁的时候赚到一些钱，就去买架靓车，或者花掉所有钱，这样又如何储蓄得到第一笔钱？对年青人来说，有时的确很难做，又要悭、不要乱花钱、不要带女朋友去看戏、去行街、这样，年青人如何储到足够的投资本钱？
曹 ：做「人上人」就辛苦，如果你想做「人下人」的话，便很容易。我自己打开电视机，见到很多老人家靠公援金过活，内心有时都感到几闷。相信大部分的老人家，他们过去都很努力，为何如今会如此凄凉？最大的原因是他们不懂得个人理财，结果辛辛苦苦储蓄的钱，在通货膨胀蚕食之下，已经完全失去购买能力，变成年老无依，的确很可怜。我自己认为，传媒有责任告诉读者或听众，如果你越早开始捱那三几年，你这一世都会很开心；相反来说，如果你一开始的时候，便胡乱花钱，那么，我就好担心，到你六、七十岁的时候，大有可能沦为「人下人」。
庞 ：曹生、七十年代跟八十年代，九十年代比较，个人理财究竟有什么不同？其实，过往有什么经验，仍然值得我们在目前九十年代参考呢？
曹 ：七十年代，可以说经历了高通胀时代，最主要一点，我相信与一九七一年美元同黄金脱有关，所以，一切实物都成为投资对象，好像黄金、古董、名画、物业、股票，可以说整个方针是在保值方面。
作为香港人，最好的投资当然是黄金，七零年的时候，黄金二百几元一盎斯，到一九八零年已经升至四千八百元，升幅接近二十倍，可以说，除了石油之外，没有其它的投资有这么大的升幅。但是，到了八十年代，美国的货币政策改变了，美国联邦储备局利用高息去压制通胀，所以高通胀时代便告结束了。另一方面，利率亦由高峰期一步一步回落，在息口向下的情形下，当然买楼、买股票最好。记得在八四、八五时，当我叫人买楼时，那时楼价六百几元一呎，但到九四年第一季，每尺楼价已经见六千几元。
庞 ：十倍升幅！
曹 ：对。恒生指数当时是八百点，九四年时已经见万二千点，升幅十五倍。虽然比不上七十年代金价的升幅，但相信是另一个致富机会。问题是到了九十年代，香港经济亦进入了成熟期，那些有十几倍升幅的投资已很难存在，好像大家坐缆车，坐了上山顶之后，就打圈圈，望落太平山下，景色无限，但是你想更上一层楼便相当困难了！
登山远望美景无穷
庞 ：这个比喻真是很贴切！如果我整日在山顶打圈，又要做个人理财，通胀虽低但仍然存在，有百份之七左右。究竟在现时来说，应如何投资？应该投资中国，或是放眼世界呢？
曹 ：可以说，香港高速增长期已成过去，相信最后踏入稳定增长期，未来当然还有机会，但不容易把握，以香港的发展经验，我相信亚太区已经遍地开花了，如果我们用从香港获得的经验再看南韩、台湾、马来西亚，泰国，印尼，他们是正在重复过去一、二十年香港发生的事，我们以过来人的身份去到这些地方投资，相信占了很大的便宜。
庞 ：今天，很多香港人都去过星马泰旅游，经常看到这些地方，譬如过去我们去台湾的时候，当地的发展与今日比较已经不同，其它东协的市场亦一样。我想问一问，目前在个人理财方面，包括青年人、壮年同老年人、在策略上有没有什么不同呢？
曹 ：我自己就相信「少壮不努力，老大徒悲伤」的话，所以，我很鼓励年青人一离开学校的时候，省吃俭用三、几年，储蓄第一笔资金，就开始制定理财计划；因为人到壮年时，通常负担相当大，譬如结了婚、有子女、或者正在供层楼呀︰︰︰
庞 ：这样很难储蓄的？
曹 ：储蓄就很辛苦。至于老人家，到年纪大的时候再开始计划理财，我担心时间方面对他们很不利，所以，我很鼓励年青人一开始的时候，就订立自己的个人理财计划，这样到中年、老年，你就可以享受黄金岁月，当你年纪大的时候，你再将自己二、三十年的经验传给下一代，帮助他们建立正确的理财方法，一家大小的生活都好愉快。
庞 ：这就是说，我们先苦后甜，先吃少少苦头，后来的果实应该不错了！
曹 ：对。
庞 ：打工仔同创业的人有什么不同？不同性别对个人理财有没有影响和分别呢？
曹 ：打工仔同创业的人根本是两类人。一般的创业者，除了你有父荫之外，开始创业的时候，资金通常都不足够，如果在那一刻，叫他再拿一些钱作其它投资的话，便相当辛苦。所以，我唯一的忠告是希望他埋头苦干，所谓「精诚所至、金石为开」，只要努力的话，我相信创业都可以成功的。
至于男与女之间，香港基本上已经到了男女平等的阶段，所以分别不大。然而性格方面，男女始终有别，所以，我主张，最好夫妻档，以免日后为了金钱而伤脑筋，最好采用有限公司，因为香港组织一间有限公司成本不大；这样，男的性格就进取，女的性格就稳健，组合最完美。
庞 ：对。这样就有平衡的作用。
曹 ：是。
庞 ：如果有财产，即已经有一笔钱的人又应如何理财？
曹 ：这个世界上，不同的人最大的分别，就是你有钱和无钱。假设你有一千万以上的话，可以说钱的作用就越来越小。譬如你住的房屋可能大一些，或者说你坐Benz、我就驾日本车；你有游艇、我没有。至于有一亿元以上，我的感觉就只不过是数字游戏，可以说，钱能够买的东西你已经可以买到；至于钱买不到的东西，你更富有都无办法买到。
我的想法是，以普通人来讲，当你的财富打破了一千万关之后，我认为人生追求的目标，应该由金钱转移到其它的地方，例如你自己的健康、你家庭生活是不是愉快、对子女之间的关怀是否足够，对朋友之间的帮助有无做到等，以免劳碌一生，除了金钱之外，一片空白。
顺其自然可发挥潜力
庞 ：但是，目前刚刚毕业的年青人，除了你刚才讲节俭一点、储蓄多一些钱之外，怎样可以快一点赚到第一桶金呢？其实从事哪一个行业较好？或者，会不会香港目前的薪酬水平，已不像以往那十几年般，每年有十几个百份点的增长，这样，我不如去中国做事？或到一些新兴市场工作，包食包住，我们就容易储到钱？
曹 ：我在过去一、二十年常常收到读者的来信，问相同的问题，通常我的答复都认为：「有心栽花花不发；无心插柳柳成荫」。我相信，二十五年前谭咏麟先生都不知道唱歌原来可以发达的。
庞 ：有个红馆呀。
曹 ：我相信成龙都不知道，原来打功夫亦可以发达。今时今日，张德培先生的成就，已清楚告诉我们，原来打网球也可以发达的。所以我认为，不要勉强自己做一些自己不喜欢做的事。这个世界谋事在人、成事在天；至于你努力专心于自己有兴趣的事业，我想迟早都有时来运到的一天。如果你一味只望发达，一时好彩，你赚到少少钱，但我相信始终不是长远之计。
庞 ：所以最好是自己勤力些，同找到自己的兴趣，一路发挥，迟早有机会出头，所谓行行出状元。九七以后，中国已收回香港的主权，我们个人理财的策略有没有改变呢？会不会放眼中国更有作为？因为中国的经济增长每年都有百份之十，高速增长。你的看法如何呢？
曹 ：我相信，香港回归中国之后，英治时代在香港结束，大家希望见到的，是港治时代的开始。过去因为政治因素，英资在香港经济及投资方面占了不少便宜，日后这个优势肯定会失去。但是，我们希望见到香港可以建立一个公平竞争的社会，即是许家屯先生同我们写那篇文章所讲：「白晋敬酒、能者绝欢」，我不希望见到中资企业取代了英资的地位，走了一班旧人，来了一班新贵。
如果九七年香港还保持公平竞争的制度，我相信，未来香港的前途还是光明的。如果今时今日良好的公务员制度受到影响，我们坚信的法治精神受到动摇，一步一步走向金权政治，有财的人与有势的人勾结在一起，令到社会充满不公平的话，这样，我便担心九七后，香港的前途是悲观的。到目前为止，我还未确知道香港走哪个方向，所以我相信，理财策略要迟一两年后，才可以跟大家深入讨论。
善用止蚀立于不败
庞 ：暂时是不是应该按兵不动呢？
曹 ：我相信亚太区提供了很多良机，因此，大家不妨利用一两年的时间，建立自己对整个亚太区经济发展的了解，这对大家将来一定有帮助。
庞 ：个人理财有没有什么必胜的投资法？怎样做法可使到自己起码立于不败之地呢？
曹 ：必胜术我就无啦！不败之地我就有，其实做法很简单，善用止蚀。任何投资，如果说，价格跌破了百分之十或者百分之十五，你就止蚀。我自己就很喜欢利用十八日平均数，任何股票投资了后，如果股价跌破十八天平均数，通常我都会卖回出去。
庞 ：卖回出去？
曹 ：对。
庞 ：曹先生、你对大家在投资方面有什么忠告呢？
曹 ：我记得胡汉辉先生跟我说过：「能知三日事富贵万千年」，所以，这个世界是无先知的。真正成功的人都有良好策略，而不是盲目跟大队；所以，在事前对事件了解多一些，就好过事后后悔。
庞 ：大家在投资之前一定做好功课啦！
曹 ：对。
庞 ：做足功课，好的开始就是成功的一半。
曹 ：对啦、对啦！
庞 ：这个是很重要的。在个人理财方面，刚才曹生讲了，当有蚀价的时候就应该止蚀，有句说话大家都听过：「赚就赚粒糖、蚀就蚀间厂」。这一点值得大家记取。
曹 ：是。
庞 ：赚钱的时候，大家赚少少就卖出；但蚀的时候，就死持不放，于是蚀得更惨了！
曹 ：对！
庞 ：所以止蚀这个方法很重要。曹生、你觉得个人理财怎样算成功？怎样算失败呢？
曹 ：有人喜欢搵快钱，我记得以前帮香港电台做一个「雄财伟略」的节目时，在最后一辑，我对他们讲过几句说话，就是「种树与种花」。
庞 ：种树和种花又与投资有什么关系？
曹 ：一个人如果想生活愉快，拥有一棵树是会几开心的，这棵树每年能够提供很多果实，而且还源源不断，替你照顾下一代！
庞 ：有树荫了！
曹 ：对！
庞 ：但树需要很久去培育，所谓「十年树木、百年树人」；对完成短期的目标，或者说，如何运用短期的资金，赚到第一桶金呢？
曹 ：所以这就需要去种花了！种花的好处是一两个月的辛劳，你立刻见到成果，但是一场风吹雨打，又可能使你的成果一败涂地。因此，在一棵树未成长的时候，你需要种些花去帮补一下自己。
庞 ：而且还要分散投资，种植很多种花。
曹 ：对呀！
庞 ：世界上有一些著名的投资专家，譬如华伦巴菲特，他自己都强调长线投资，他的威水史就是在四十年内，赚到一百四十亿美金的资产。其实你给他一万元，一万元的投资，在四十年内赚了八十倍，已经八千万了。他觉得，每个人都可以投资致富，祇要勤力、坚毅、理性、自律！有这些性格就行！曹生个人对此有何看法？
曹 ：听你所讲好像很惊人，因为你所讲是八十倍回报。资金有几百亿！其实这不外是福利。祇要你每年令自己的财产增长百份之二十五，四十年后你就是第二个巴菲特。关键是持之以恒，不是一年，而是年年百份之廿五，四十年后，你的财富已经可以同巴菲特媲美。
庞 ：甚至比他更厉害！
曹 ：相信如此。
跟投资项目拍拖或做人世
庞 ：目前来讲，是信息的时代，好的信息就等于财富，使你很容易赚到钱。但因信息爆炸，譬如，报章又有那么多投资专家，他们之中，有些看好、有些却看淡，作为普通投资者如何拣选这些信息，帮助自己去投资？你有什么忠告？或者有什么心得？
曹 ：我觉得，太多信息反而累事。各位都有拍拖的经验，两人不见面的时候，真是天下美女何其多；但可以做你太太的，我相信祇有一个。你未结婚之前比些心机去拣，拣一个同你性格、理想方面都相当匹配；这样，你跟她／他共同生活，我相信婚姻才会愉快。另一方面，若你朝秦暮楚，我相信到今时今日，你的婚姻生活都不会愉快。
拣选信息好、拣选投资基金经理也好、或者拣股票亦好，道理一样。你面对几百只股票，信息爆炸；过千的基金，总有些是适合你的。你慢慢拣到适合自己的项目，你去与它长期相处，我相信未来二、三十年，大家会好愉快。
庞 ：即是说，自己开首的时候要花多些时间，去看一下、拣选一下、同时跟它拍一拍拖，了解清楚，然后先慢慢委托终身，长期相处。
曹 ：拍拖时就不妨多心，结了婚之后就应该一条心。
庞 ：最后，我就想问曹生一个问题，你自己在报纸上写专栏教人投资，其实同你自己的投资有什么不同？如何做到言与行一样，如出一辙，而且能够收赚钱效果呢？
曹 ：我刚刚开始写投资专栏时，犯过所有今时今日投资者应该犯的错误，经过自己痛苦的摸索后，我才知道短线与长线的分别。可以说，经过二十几年之后，我目前手上的投资，大部分都是中长线的。短线、我就已经很少涉及！经验这样的东西需要时间去累积。年青人不妨多尝试，看有哪一样东西适合自己。但经过一段时间后，你会摸索到自己的投资策略，然后持之以恒，相信到了老年阶段，各位的身家都应该不会少！
Orient Century undervalued?
Back some time ago, I analyzed the full year earnings of Orient Century, and i state that it has a good cashflow yield, return on investment capital and a solid balance sheet.
since then it has fallen alot. Last i check, it fell to 38.5 cts. So what went wrong?
Judging by the last quarterly report, nothing much! Most price fall nowadays can be attributed to systematic market volatility.
Lets look at the quarterly report. Relativly speaking, the profits are largely the same as last year quarter. Thats what you expect from education industry, where if you don’t price yourself out of it, business tend to be stable.
The best thing is this: Operating Cashflow have maintained at 17 mil RMB and they do not need to have much capital expenditure or capital expansion.
This adds 17 mil straight to their 190 mil of cash. So a falling market cap and a rising cash horde. What does that equate to?
Their last enterprise valeu is 114 mil RMB and if they do not grow their cashflow at an increasing pace, their terminal net operating cashflow after tax is around 47 mil RMB or so.
That means if u buy it at 38.5 cents now you are buying 2.4 years of cashflow. I think thats cheap. This business could sustain past 3 years!
since then it has fallen alot. Last i check, it fell to 38.5 cts. So what went wrong?
Judging by the last quarterly report, nothing much! Most price fall nowadays can be attributed to systematic market volatility.
Lets look at the quarterly report. Relativly speaking, the profits are largely the same as last year quarter. Thats what you expect from education industry, where if you don’t price yourself out of it, business tend to be stable.
The best thing is this: Operating Cashflow have maintained at 17 mil RMB and they do not need to have much capital expenditure or capital expansion.
This adds 17 mil straight to their 190 mil of cash. So a falling market cap and a rising cash horde. What does that equate to?
Their last enterprise valeu is 114 mil RMB and if they do not grow their cashflow at an increasing pace, their terminal net operating cashflow after tax is around 47 mil RMB or so.
That means if u buy it at 38.5 cents now you are buying 2.4 years of cashflow. I think thats cheap. This business could sustain past 3 years!
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Government shuts down mortgage lender IndyMac
IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.
IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.
Other bank services, such as online banking and phone banking were scheduled to be made available on Monday.
"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
The lender's failure came the same day that financial markets plunged when investors tried to gauge whether the government would have to save mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Shares of Fannie and Freddie dropped to 17-year lows before the stocks recovered somewhat. Wall Street is growing more convinced that the government will have to bail out the country's biggest mortgage financiers, whose failure could deal a tremendous blow to the already staggering economy.
The FDIC estimated that its takeover of IndyMac would cost between $4 billion and $8 billion.
IndyMac's collapse is second only to that of Continental Illinois National Bank, which had nearly $40 billion in assets when it failed in 1984, according to the FDIC.
News of the takeover distressed Alan Sands, who showed up at the company's headquarters in Pasadena, Calif., to find out when he could withdraw his funds.
"Hopefully the FDIC insurance will take care of it," said Sands, of El Monte, Calif. "I'm also kind of kicking myself for not taking care of this sooner, sooner as in the last couple of days."
A couple of dozen customers could be seen outside the building, reading fliers handed out by FDIC staff. The agency set up a toll-free number for bank customers to call.
IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.
IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.
The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.
In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.
In a statement Friday, Schumer said IndyMac's failure was due to long-standing practices by the bank, not recent events.
"If OTS had done its job as regulator and not let IndyMac's poor and loose lending practices continue, we wouldn't be where we are today," Schumer said. "Instead of pointing false fingers of blame, OTS should start doing its job to prevent future IndyMacs."
The FDIC planned to reopen the bank on Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.
Deposits are insured up to $100,000 per depositor.
As of March 31, IndyMac had total deposits of $19.06 billion.
Some 10,000 depositors had funds in excess of the insured limit, for a total of $1 billion in potentially uninsured funds, the FDIC said.
Customers with uninsured deposits could begin making appointments to file a claim with the FDIC on Monday. The agency said it would pay unsecured depositors an advance dividend equal to half of the uninsured amount.
During a conference call with reporters, FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said the agency would cover all insured deposits and then try to recover its costs by selling IndyMac's assets.
"We anticipate trying to market the institution as a whole bank," Bair said. "How much money we derive from that will depend on who gets paid what."
Holders of unsecured IndyMac debt may not fully recover their investment, Bair said.
"Generally if a creditor is secured, they are at the top of the claims priority," she said. "If they are unsecured, they're pretty low on the claims priority and probably will take some type of haircut with this, but we have not had a chance to do a thorough analysis to know ... how extensive those losses will be."
IndyMac spent the last two weeks trying to reassure customers that it was not near default.
On Monday, IndyMac announced it had stopped accepting new loan submissions and planned to slash 3,800 jobs, or more than half of its work force -- the largest employee cuts in company history.
In the letter to shareholders, IndyMac Chairman and Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said the drastic measures were made in conjunction with banking regulators to improve the company's financial footing and "meet our mutual goal of keeping Indymac safe and sound through this crisis period."
The plan was supposed to generate roughly $5 billion to $10 billion per year of new loans backed by government-sponsored mortgage companies, Perry said at the time.
But the run on its deposits ultimately short-circuited the strategy, prompting regulators to take action Friday.
The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.
IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.
Other bank services, such as online banking and phone banking were scheduled to be made available on Monday.
"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
The lender's failure came the same day that financial markets plunged when investors tried to gauge whether the government would have to save mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Shares of Fannie and Freddie dropped to 17-year lows before the stocks recovered somewhat. Wall Street is growing more convinced that the government will have to bail out the country's biggest mortgage financiers, whose failure could deal a tremendous blow to the already staggering economy.
The FDIC estimated that its takeover of IndyMac would cost between $4 billion and $8 billion.
IndyMac's collapse is second only to that of Continental Illinois National Bank, which had nearly $40 billion in assets when it failed in 1984, according to the FDIC.
News of the takeover distressed Alan Sands, who showed up at the company's headquarters in Pasadena, Calif., to find out when he could withdraw his funds.
"Hopefully the FDIC insurance will take care of it," said Sands, of El Monte, Calif. "I'm also kind of kicking myself for not taking care of this sooner, sooner as in the last couple of days."
A couple of dozen customers could be seen outside the building, reading fliers handed out by FDIC staff. The agency set up a toll-free number for bank customers to call.
IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.
IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.
The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.
In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.
In a statement Friday, Schumer said IndyMac's failure was due to long-standing practices by the bank, not recent events.
"If OTS had done its job as regulator and not let IndyMac's poor and loose lending practices continue, we wouldn't be where we are today," Schumer said. "Instead of pointing false fingers of blame, OTS should start doing its job to prevent future IndyMacs."
The FDIC planned to reopen the bank on Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.
Deposits are insured up to $100,000 per depositor.
As of March 31, IndyMac had total deposits of $19.06 billion.
Some 10,000 depositors had funds in excess of the insured limit, for a total of $1 billion in potentially uninsured funds, the FDIC said.
Customers with uninsured deposits could begin making appointments to file a claim with the FDIC on Monday. The agency said it would pay unsecured depositors an advance dividend equal to half of the uninsured amount.
During a conference call with reporters, FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said the agency would cover all insured deposits and then try to recover its costs by selling IndyMac's assets.
"We anticipate trying to market the institution as a whole bank," Bair said. "How much money we derive from that will depend on who gets paid what."
Holders of unsecured IndyMac debt may not fully recover their investment, Bair said.
"Generally if a creditor is secured, they are at the top of the claims priority," she said. "If they are unsecured, they're pretty low on the claims priority and probably will take some type of haircut with this, but we have not had a chance to do a thorough analysis to know ... how extensive those losses will be."
IndyMac spent the last two weeks trying to reassure customers that it was not near default.
On Monday, IndyMac announced it had stopped accepting new loan submissions and planned to slash 3,800 jobs, or more than half of its work force -- the largest employee cuts in company history.
In the letter to shareholders, IndyMac Chairman and Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said the drastic measures were made in conjunction with banking regulators to improve the company's financial footing and "meet our mutual goal of keeping Indymac safe and sound through this crisis period."
The plan was supposed to generate roughly $5 billion to $10 billion per year of new loans backed by government-sponsored mortgage companies, Perry said at the time.
But the run on its deposits ultimately short-circuited the strategy, prompting regulators to take action Friday.
Senate passes mortgage rescue plan
A mortgage rescue to help hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure and get more affordable, safer loans passed the Senate overwhelmingly Friday, but it faces a bumpy road amid continuing turmoil in the housing market.
The 63-5 vote reflected a keen interest by Democrats and Republicans to send election-year help to distressed homeowners with economic issues topping voters' concerns.
The plan lets homeowners buckling under mortgage payments they can't afford keep their homes and get more affordable mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Banks that agreed to take substantial losses on those distressed loans could avoid costly foreclosures and be assured of recovering at least some money.
The new program would let the FHA insure as much as $300 billion in new mortgages, helping an estimated 400,000 homeowners.
It still faces challenges, however, with the House planning to rewrite key details and the White House threatening a veto without major changes.
"It's not the final stop, but it is a major stop in getting this bill done," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Banking Committee. "For those who said this Congress cannot come together in a bipartisan fashion to do something responsible about housing, this bill does that."
Rep. Barney Frank, the Financial Services Committee chairman and an architect of the bill, says the few but significant revisions House leaders are seeking could be made in as little as one week.
Dodd said he was expecting minor "tweaks" that could be dealt with quickly.
But key players are bracing for intense negotiations to resolve the differences. They hope to smooth over disputes with the White House at the same time, with an eye toward producing a bill President Bush could sign later this month.
The White House Friday renewed its warning that Bush would veto the Senate-passed bill without revisions, citing $3.9 billion in the measure for buying and rehabilitating foreclosed properties it said would help lenders, not homeowners.
The measure includes a long-sought modernization of the FHA and would create a new regulator and tighter controls on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage giants. It also would provide $14.5 billion in housing tax breaks, including a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers.
Democrats are divided over important elements of the plan, including limits on loans the FHA may insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may buy. The Senate measure sets them at $625,000, while House leaders — including Speaker Nancy Pelosi,— want the cap as high as $730,000.
House leaders also oppose the immediate effective date of the Senate plan, preferring to phase in the new regulations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over six months.
"We'd have a hard time agreeing to that," Dodd told reporters Friday. He called a Capitol Hill news conference to dispel fears about the financial health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as their stocks plummeted on reports that the government was considering taking over one or both of them.
Another key point of dispute is the funding in the Senate measure for buying and fixing foreclosed properties. The House's band of conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats oppose the money, arguing that it would swell the deficit unless paired with cuts or tax increases to cover the cost.
But many Democrats, particularly members of the Congressional Black Caucus, are fighting to keep the funding, which they say will help prevent the communities hardest hit by the housing crisis from sliding into blight.
"There are people who tell me to ignore" that threat, Frank said in a statement Friday. "But there is too much that is important in this bill, and it has already been too long delayed by procedural problems in the Senate, for us to risk the further delay involved in a veto."
He said he was working to find a way to shift the funds to a must-pass spending bill that would be approved before lawmakers scatter for the year in September.
Dana Perino, Bush's spokeswoman, said the money should be stripped out of the measure "so that they can get a housing bill to the president that he could sign right away."
Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive presidential nominee, said Bush should drop his opposition to the housing plan and other Democratic efforts to ease economic pain.
"I call on the administration to support this bill along with a second emergency stimulus package to jumpstart the economy and build on this important start to advance more rigorous measures to protect homeowners from foreclosure," he said. Obama was on the campaign trail Friday and did not vote on the measure, which had been expected to pass by a wide margin. He was one of 32 senators not voting.
With the administration scrambling to tamp down on investor fears about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Perino called the new regulations in the measure for the two mortgage giants its "most important feature."
Lawmakers and the Bush administration agree on the central concept behind the housing package: allowing the government to backstop new mortgages for struggling homeowners.
To make it more palatable to Republicans, the Senate measure would take responsibility for any losses away from taxpayers and instead cover them by diverting a newly created affordable housing fund drawn from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits.
The 63-5 vote reflected a keen interest by Democrats and Republicans to send election-year help to distressed homeowners with economic issues topping voters' concerns.
The plan lets homeowners buckling under mortgage payments they can't afford keep their homes and get more affordable mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Banks that agreed to take substantial losses on those distressed loans could avoid costly foreclosures and be assured of recovering at least some money.
The new program would let the FHA insure as much as $300 billion in new mortgages, helping an estimated 400,000 homeowners.
It still faces challenges, however, with the House planning to rewrite key details and the White House threatening a veto without major changes.
"It's not the final stop, but it is a major stop in getting this bill done," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Banking Committee. "For those who said this Congress cannot come together in a bipartisan fashion to do something responsible about housing, this bill does that."
Rep. Barney Frank, the Financial Services Committee chairman and an architect of the bill, says the few but significant revisions House leaders are seeking could be made in as little as one week.
Dodd said he was expecting minor "tweaks" that could be dealt with quickly.
But key players are bracing for intense negotiations to resolve the differences. They hope to smooth over disputes with the White House at the same time, with an eye toward producing a bill President Bush could sign later this month.
The White House Friday renewed its warning that Bush would veto the Senate-passed bill without revisions, citing $3.9 billion in the measure for buying and rehabilitating foreclosed properties it said would help lenders, not homeowners.
The measure includes a long-sought modernization of the FHA and would create a new regulator and tighter controls on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage giants. It also would provide $14.5 billion in housing tax breaks, including a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers.
Democrats are divided over important elements of the plan, including limits on loans the FHA may insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may buy. The Senate measure sets them at $625,000, while House leaders — including Speaker Nancy Pelosi,— want the cap as high as $730,000.
House leaders also oppose the immediate effective date of the Senate plan, preferring to phase in the new regulations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over six months.
"We'd have a hard time agreeing to that," Dodd told reporters Friday. He called a Capitol Hill news conference to dispel fears about the financial health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as their stocks plummeted on reports that the government was considering taking over one or both of them.
Another key point of dispute is the funding in the Senate measure for buying and fixing foreclosed properties. The House's band of conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats oppose the money, arguing that it would swell the deficit unless paired with cuts or tax increases to cover the cost.
But many Democrats, particularly members of the Congressional Black Caucus, are fighting to keep the funding, which they say will help prevent the communities hardest hit by the housing crisis from sliding into blight.
"There are people who tell me to ignore" that threat, Frank said in a statement Friday. "But there is too much that is important in this bill, and it has already been too long delayed by procedural problems in the Senate, for us to risk the further delay involved in a veto."
He said he was working to find a way to shift the funds to a must-pass spending bill that would be approved before lawmakers scatter for the year in September.
Dana Perino, Bush's spokeswoman, said the money should be stripped out of the measure "so that they can get a housing bill to the president that he could sign right away."
Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive presidential nominee, said Bush should drop his opposition to the housing plan and other Democratic efforts to ease economic pain.
"I call on the administration to support this bill along with a second emergency stimulus package to jumpstart the economy and build on this important start to advance more rigorous measures to protect homeowners from foreclosure," he said. Obama was on the campaign trail Friday and did not vote on the measure, which had been expected to pass by a wide margin. He was one of 32 senators not voting.
With the administration scrambling to tamp down on investor fears about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Perino called the new regulations in the measure for the two mortgage giants its "most important feature."
Lawmakers and the Bush administration agree on the central concept behind the housing package: allowing the government to backstop new mortgages for struggling homeowners.
To make it more palatable to Republicans, the Senate measure would take responsibility for any losses away from taxpayers and instead cover them by diverting a newly created affordable housing fund drawn from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits.
怎样成为一个伟大投资者的 ? 为何你们中只有极少人敢奢望成为这样的人。
其原因是，你的智商是多少、看过多少书报杂志、拥有或者在今后的职业中将拥有多少经验，都不起作用。很多人都有这些素质，但几乎没有人在整个职业生涯中使复合回报率达到20%或25%。
你们不可能永远以20%的复合回报率让财富增值，除非你的脑子在十一二岁的时候就有某种特质。我不确定这是天生的还是后天习得的，但如果你到青少年时期还没有这种特质，那么你就再不会有了。在大脑发育完成之前，你可能有能力超过其他投资者，也可能没有。来到哈佛并不会改变这一点，读完每一本关于投资的书不会，多年的经验也不会。如果你想成为伟大投资者，那些只是必要条件，但还远远不够，因为它们都能被竞争对手复制。
现在，作为公司的CEO，什么样的优势才能使你们免受残酷的竞争？如何找到合适的点来建立起广泛的巴菲特所说的“经济护城河”（economicmoat）？
因此什么是投资者必备的竞争优势呢？就像一个公司或者一个行业，投资者的“护城河”也应该是结构性的。它们与一些心理学因素有关，而心理因素是深植在你的脑子里的，是你的一部分，即使你阅读大量相关书籍也无法改变。
我认为，至少有7个特质是伟大投资者的共同特征，是真正的优势资源，而且是你一旦成年就再无法获得的。事实上，其中几个特质甚至丝毫没有学习的可能，你必须天生具备，若无就此生难寻。
第一个特质是，在他人恐慌时果断买入股票、而在他人盲目乐观时卖掉股票的能力。每个人都认为自己能做到这一点，但是当1987年10月19日这天到来的时候（历史上著名的“黑色星期一”），市场彻底崩溃，几乎没人有胆量再买入股票。而在1999年（次年即是纳斯达克大崩盘），市场几乎每天都在上扬，你不会允许自己卖掉股票，因为你担心会落后于他人。绝大多数管理财富的人都有MBA学位和高智商，读过很多书。到1999年底，这些人也都确信股票被估值过高，但他们不能允许自己把钱撤离赌台，其原因正是巴菲特所说的“制度性强制力”（institutional imperative）。
第二个特质是，伟大投资者是那种极度着迷于此游戏，并有极强获胜欲的人。他们不只是享受投资的乐趣——投资就是他们的生命。他们清晨醒来时，即使还在半梦半醒之间，想到的第一件事情就是他们研究过的股票，或者是他们考虑要卖掉的股票，又或者是他们的投资组合将面临的最大风险是什么以及如何规避它。他们通常在个人生活上会陷入困境，尽管他们也许真的喜欢其他人，也没有太多的时间与对方交流。他们的头脑始终处在云端，梦想着股票。不幸的是，你们无法学习这种对于某种东西的执迷，这是天生的。如果你没有这样的强迫症，你就不可能成为下一个布鲁斯·博克维茨（ Fairholme Funds的创始人，选股思路深受巴菲特影响，组合集中、低换手率、很少越界）。
第三个特质是，从过去所犯错误中吸取教训的强烈意愿。这点对于人们来说是难以做到的，让伟大投资者脱颖而出的正是这种从自己过去错误中学习以避免重犯的强烈渴望。大多数人都会忽略他们曾做过的愚蠢决定，继续向前冲。我想用来形容他们的词就是“压抑”（repression）。但是如果你忽略往日的错误而不是全面分析它，毫无疑问你在将来的职业生涯中还会犯相似的错。事实上，即便你确实去分析了，重复犯错也是很难避免的。
第四个特质是，基于常识的与生俱来的风险嗅觉。大部分人都知道美国长期资本管理公司（1990年代中期的国际四大对冲基金之一，1998年因为俄罗斯金融风暴而濒临破产）的故事，一个由六七十位博士组成的团队，拥有最精妙的风险分析模型，却没能发现事后看来显见的问题：他们承担了过高的风险。他们从不停下来问自己一句：“嗨，虽然电脑认为这样可行，但在现实生活中是否真的行得通呢？”这种能力在人类中的常见度也许并不像你认为的那样高。我相信最优秀的风险控制系统就是常识，但是人们却仍会习惯听从电脑的意见，让自己安然睡去。他们忽视了常识，我看到这个错误在投资界一再上演。
第五个特质是，伟大的投资家都对于他们自己的想法怀有绝对的信心，即使是在面对批评的时候。巴菲特坚持不投身疯狂的网络热潮，尽管人们公开批评他忽略科技股。当其他人都放弃了价值投资的时候，巴菲特依然岿然不动。《巴伦周刊》为此把他做成了封面人物，标题是“沃伦，你哪儿出错了？”当然，事后这进一步证明了巴菲特的智慧，《巴伦周刊》则变成了完美的反面教材。就个人而言，我很惊讶于大多数投资者对他们所买股票的信心之微弱。根据凯利公式（Kelly Formula，一个可用于判断投资和赌博风险的数学公式），投资组合中的20%可以放在一支股票上，但很多投资人只放2%。从数学上来说，运用凯利公式，把2%的投资放在一支股票上，相当于赌它只有51%的上涨可能性，49%的可能性是下跌。为何要浪费时间去打这个赌呢？这帮人拿着100万美元的年薪，只是去寻找哪些股票有51%的上涨可能性？简直是有病。
第六个特质是，左右脑都很好用，而不仅仅是开动左脑（左脑擅长数学和组织）。在商学院，我曾经遇到过很多天资聪颖的人。不过主修金融的人，写的东西一文不值，他们也无法创造性地看待问题，对此我颇感震惊。后来我明白了，一些非常聪明的人只用一半大脑思考，这样足以让你在世上立足，可是如果要成为一个和主流人群思考方式不同的富有创新精神的企业投资家，这还远远不够。另一方面，如果你是右脑占主导的人，你很可能讨厌数学，然后通常就无法进入金融界了。所以金融人士很可能左脑极其发达，我认为这是个问题。我相信一个伟大投资家的两边大脑都发挥作用。作为一个投资家，你需要进行计算，要有逻辑合理的投资理论，这都是你的左脑做的事情。但是你也需要做一些另外的事情，比如根据微妙线索来判断该公司的管理团队。你需要静下心来，在脑中勾画出当前情势的大图景，而不是往死里去分析。你要具备幽默感、谦卑的心态和基本常识。还有最重要的，我认为你也得是一个好的写作者。看看巴菲特，他是商业世界里最杰出的写作者之一，他同时也是古往今来最好的投资家之一绝非偶然。如果你无法清晰地写作，我认为你也不能清楚地思考。如果不能清楚地思考，你就会陷入麻烦。很多人拥有天才般的智商，却不能清楚地思考问题，尽管他们心算就能得出债券或者期权的价格。
最后、最重要的，同时也是最少见的一项特质：在投资过程中，大起大落之中却丝毫不改投资思路的能力。这对于大多数人而言几乎是不可能做到的。当股票开始下跌，人们很难坚持承受损失而不抛出股票。市场整体下降时，人们很难决定买进更多股票以使成本摊薄，甚至很难决定将钱再投入股票中。人们不喜欢承受暂时性的痛苦，即便从长远来看会有更好的收益。很少有投资家能应对高回报率所必须经历的短期波动。他们将短期波动等同于风险。这是极不理性的。风险意味着你若押错了宝，就得赔钱。而相对短时期内的上下波动并不等于损失，因此也不是风险，除非你在市场跌到谷底时陷入恐慌，被损失吓得大乱阵脚。但是多数人不会以这种方式看问题，他们的大脑不容许他们这么想。恐慌本能会入侵，然后切断正常思考的能力。
我必须申明，人们一旦步入成年期就无法再学到上述特质。这个时候，你在日后成为卓越投资者的潜力已经被决定了。这种潜力经过锻炼可以获得，但是无法从头建立，因为这与你脑组织的结构以及孩童时期的经历密切相关。这不是说金融教育、阅读以及投资经验都不重要。这些很重要，但只能让你够资格进入这个游戏并玩下去。那些都是可以被任何人复制的东西，而上述7个特质却不可能。
其原因是，你的智商是多少、看过多少书报杂志、拥有或者在今后的职业中将拥有多少经验，都不起作用。很多人都有这些素质，但几乎没有人在整个职业生涯中使复合回报率达到20%或25%。
你们不可能永远以20%的复合回报率让财富增值，除非你的脑子在十一二岁的时候就有某种特质。我不确定这是天生的还是后天习得的，但如果你到青少年时期还没有这种特质，那么你就再不会有了。在大脑发育完成之前，你可能有能力超过其他投资者，也可能没有。来到哈佛并不会改变这一点，读完每一本关于投资的书不会，多年的经验也不会。如果你想成为伟大投资者，那些只是必要条件，但还远远不够，因为它们都能被竞争对手复制。
现在，作为公司的CEO，什么样的优势才能使你们免受残酷的竞争？如何找到合适的点来建立起广泛的巴菲特所说的“经济护城河”（economicmoat）？
因此什么是投资者必备的竞争优势呢？就像一个公司或者一个行业，投资者的“护城河”也应该是结构性的。它们与一些心理学因素有关，而心理因素是深植在你的脑子里的，是你的一部分，即使你阅读大量相关书籍也无法改变。
我认为，至少有7个特质是伟大投资者的共同特征，是真正的优势资源，而且是你一旦成年就再无法获得的。事实上，其中几个特质甚至丝毫没有学习的可能，你必须天生具备，若无就此生难寻。
第一个特质是，在他人恐慌时果断买入股票、而在他人盲目乐观时卖掉股票的能力。每个人都认为自己能做到这一点，但是当1987年10月19日这天到来的时候（历史上著名的“黑色星期一”），市场彻底崩溃，几乎没人有胆量再买入股票。而在1999年（次年即是纳斯达克大崩盘），市场几乎每天都在上扬，你不会允许自己卖掉股票，因为你担心会落后于他人。绝大多数管理财富的人都有MBA学位和高智商，读过很多书。到1999年底，这些人也都确信股票被估值过高，但他们不能允许自己把钱撤离赌台，其原因正是巴菲特所说的“制度性强制力”（institutional imperative）。
第二个特质是，伟大投资者是那种极度着迷于此游戏，并有极强获胜欲的人。他们不只是享受投资的乐趣——投资就是他们的生命。他们清晨醒来时，即使还在半梦半醒之间，想到的第一件事情就是他们研究过的股票，或者是他们考虑要卖掉的股票，又或者是他们的投资组合将面临的最大风险是什么以及如何规避它。他们通常在个人生活上会陷入困境，尽管他们也许真的喜欢其他人，也没有太多的时间与对方交流。他们的头脑始终处在云端，梦想着股票。不幸的是，你们无法学习这种对于某种东西的执迷，这是天生的。如果你没有这样的强迫症，你就不可能成为下一个布鲁斯·博克维茨（ Fairholme Funds的创始人，选股思路深受巴菲特影响，组合集中、低换手率、很少越界）。
第三个特质是，从过去所犯错误中吸取教训的强烈意愿。这点对于人们来说是难以做到的，让伟大投资者脱颖而出的正是这种从自己过去错误中学习以避免重犯的强烈渴望。大多数人都会忽略他们曾做过的愚蠢决定，继续向前冲。我想用来形容他们的词就是“压抑”（repression）。但是如果你忽略往日的错误而不是全面分析它，毫无疑问你在将来的职业生涯中还会犯相似的错。事实上，即便你确实去分析了，重复犯错也是很难避免的。
第四个特质是，基于常识的与生俱来的风险嗅觉。大部分人都知道美国长期资本管理公司（1990年代中期的国际四大对冲基金之一，1998年因为俄罗斯金融风暴而濒临破产）的故事，一个由六七十位博士组成的团队，拥有最精妙的风险分析模型，却没能发现事后看来显见的问题：他们承担了过高的风险。他们从不停下来问自己一句：“嗨，虽然电脑认为这样可行，但在现实生活中是否真的行得通呢？”这种能力在人类中的常见度也许并不像你认为的那样高。我相信最优秀的风险控制系统就是常识，但是人们却仍会习惯听从电脑的意见，让自己安然睡去。他们忽视了常识，我看到这个错误在投资界一再上演。
第五个特质是，伟大的投资家都对于他们自己的想法怀有绝对的信心，即使是在面对批评的时候。巴菲特坚持不投身疯狂的网络热潮，尽管人们公开批评他忽略科技股。当其他人都放弃了价值投资的时候，巴菲特依然岿然不动。《巴伦周刊》为此把他做成了封面人物，标题是“沃伦，你哪儿出错了？”当然，事后这进一步证明了巴菲特的智慧，《巴伦周刊》则变成了完美的反面教材。就个人而言，我很惊讶于大多数投资者对他们所买股票的信心之微弱。根据凯利公式（Kelly Formula，一个可用于判断投资和赌博风险的数学公式），投资组合中的20%可以放在一支股票上，但很多投资人只放2%。从数学上来说，运用凯利公式，把2%的投资放在一支股票上，相当于赌它只有51%的上涨可能性，49%的可能性是下跌。为何要浪费时间去打这个赌呢？这帮人拿着100万美元的年薪，只是去寻找哪些股票有51%的上涨可能性？简直是有病。
第六个特质是，左右脑都很好用，而不仅仅是开动左脑（左脑擅长数学和组织）。在商学院，我曾经遇到过很多天资聪颖的人。不过主修金融的人，写的东西一文不值，他们也无法创造性地看待问题，对此我颇感震惊。后来我明白了，一些非常聪明的人只用一半大脑思考，这样足以让你在世上立足，可是如果要成为一个和主流人群思考方式不同的富有创新精神的企业投资家，这还远远不够。另一方面，如果你是右脑占主导的人，你很可能讨厌数学，然后通常就无法进入金融界了。所以金融人士很可能左脑极其发达，我认为这是个问题。我相信一个伟大投资家的两边大脑都发挥作用。作为一个投资家，你需要进行计算，要有逻辑合理的投资理论，这都是你的左脑做的事情。但是你也需要做一些另外的事情，比如根据微妙线索来判断该公司的管理团队。你需要静下心来，在脑中勾画出当前情势的大图景，而不是往死里去分析。你要具备幽默感、谦卑的心态和基本常识。还有最重要的，我认为你也得是一个好的写作者。看看巴菲特，他是商业世界里最杰出的写作者之一，他同时也是古往今来最好的投资家之一绝非偶然。如果你无法清晰地写作，我认为你也不能清楚地思考。如果不能清楚地思考，你就会陷入麻烦。很多人拥有天才般的智商，却不能清楚地思考问题，尽管他们心算就能得出债券或者期权的价格。
最后、最重要的，同时也是最少见的一项特质：在投资过程中，大起大落之中却丝毫不改投资思路的能力。这对于大多数人而言几乎是不可能做到的。当股票开始下跌，人们很难坚持承受损失而不抛出股票。市场整体下降时，人们很难决定买进更多股票以使成本摊薄，甚至很难决定将钱再投入股票中。人们不喜欢承受暂时性的痛苦，即便从长远来看会有更好的收益。很少有投资家能应对高回报率所必须经历的短期波动。他们将短期波动等同于风险。这是极不理性的。风险意味着你若押错了宝，就得赔钱。而相对短时期内的上下波动并不等于损失，因此也不是风险，除非你在市场跌到谷底时陷入恐慌，被损失吓得大乱阵脚。但是多数人不会以这种方式看问题，他们的大脑不容许他们这么想。恐慌本能会入侵，然后切断正常思考的能力。
我必须申明，人们一旦步入成年期就无法再学到上述特质。这个时候，你在日后成为卓越投资者的潜力已经被决定了。这种潜力经过锻炼可以获得，但是无法从头建立，因为这与你脑组织的结构以及孩童时期的经历密切相关。这不是说金融教育、阅读以及投资经验都不重要。这些很重要，但只能让你够资格进入这个游戏并玩下去。那些都是可以被任何人复制的东西，而上述7个特质却不可能。
谢国忠:2010年油价泡沫才会破裂
近日，国际油价在剧烈波动。美国西得克萨斯中质原油即期合约(WTI)5月底涨到每桶135美元，但之后一周迅速跌回每桶126美元。价格的剧烈波动增加了对期权的需求，特别是执行价与WTI现价差距较大的期权。看涨阵营认为价格会被推高到每桶200美元。看跌的人则认为价格已经涨到峰顶，需求将减少，并带动价格下跌至每桶80美元。
我认为，油价还会继续上涨；要等到中国和印度将成品油价格放开，原油涨价才会停止。这轮泡沫破裂需等美联储将利率提高到通胀率以上或接近通胀率，这很可能是在2010年年中。
2002 年以前，油价一直在每桶20美元附近波动。2003年，强劲的全球经济推动了油价上涨。起初，油价上涨的节奏与普通经济周期毫无差异，直到2004年下半年，油价上涨速度明显快于往常。2007年上半年，美国楼市低迷加剧了原油需求减少的预期，原油泡沫处于破裂边缘。之后，为了挽救金融体系，美联储大幅降息，刺激金融资本流向原油市场。我可以肯定地说，2007年夏季伊始的原油价格快速上涨是货币现象。
认为油价无泡沫的人最重要的论据是原油存货没有增加。存货增加是泡沫发生时的常见现象，但并非必要条件。在科技股泡沫期间，许多公司会斥巨资提高计算机设备，这是一种存货；在美国楼市泡沫期间，许多家庭购买第二套住房但不常住，这也可以视作存货。但是，1997年香港楼市泡沫和目前的原油泡沫却没有上述过度建设或大量空置的情况。在这两次泡沫中，都有某种约束阻碍了供给对价格上涨作出反应。对这种供给受到约束的泡沫而言，其标志是收益率下降以及资产升值在总回报所占的比重提高。
通常情况下，价格上涨会增加供给、减少需求，于是存货成为泡沫持续的必要条件。但目前的原油供需变化非比寻常。
据国际能源机构(IEA)统计，超过80%的需求增长来自中东地区和亚太地区。中东地区的原油出口占全球总量一半以上。高油价大幅提高了它的出口收入，而收入增加又刺激了国内对原油的额外需求。推动需求的收入效应，大于压低需求的价格效应。这种不同寻常的需求变化，使得中东地区原油消费与原油价格呈正相关关系。此外，原油出口国有能力将国内成品油价格维持在较低水平上，因为它们无需付出高额成本。高收入和低成本合在一起，对刺激需求有极大的正面作用。上述分析同样适用于其他原油出口国。大约一半的原油需求可以用原油出口国的这种供需变化来解释。
在中国、印度这样的新兴市场国家，价格管制或补贴是维持原油需求的重要因素。能源在发展中国家的产品和生活成本中的比重都要高于发展国家。多数发展中国家很难在不引起政治麻烦的前提下，将上涨的原油价格传递给消费者。倾向于补贴政策的政府总相信这种政策是暂时的，希望原油价格会回落。但事与愿违，由于油价持续上涨，取消补贴的后果越来越严重，使得这些政府不愿意停止补贴。无意中，它们在维持高油价中扮演了重要角色，但同时它们又很害怕高油价。正如原油出口国的原油需求依赖于高价格，进口原油的发展中国家的需求弹性取决于政府补贴政策。此外，原油补贴使得发展中国家的出口商品价格维持在较低水平，这其实是对西方消费者的补贴，使得他们有能力应对本土的高油价。
我认为，油价还会继续上涨；要等到中国和印度将成品油价格放开，原油涨价才会停止。这轮泡沫破裂需等美联储将利率提高到通胀率以上或接近通胀率，这很可能是在2010年年中。
2002 年以前，油价一直在每桶20美元附近波动。2003年，强劲的全球经济推动了油价上涨。起初，油价上涨的节奏与普通经济周期毫无差异，直到2004年下半年，油价上涨速度明显快于往常。2007年上半年，美国楼市低迷加剧了原油需求减少的预期，原油泡沫处于破裂边缘。之后，为了挽救金融体系，美联储大幅降息，刺激金融资本流向原油市场。我可以肯定地说，2007年夏季伊始的原油价格快速上涨是货币现象。
认为油价无泡沫的人最重要的论据是原油存货没有增加。存货增加是泡沫发生时的常见现象，但并非必要条件。在科技股泡沫期间，许多公司会斥巨资提高计算机设备，这是一种存货；在美国楼市泡沫期间，许多家庭购买第二套住房但不常住，这也可以视作存货。但是，1997年香港楼市泡沫和目前的原油泡沫却没有上述过度建设或大量空置的情况。在这两次泡沫中，都有某种约束阻碍了供给对价格上涨作出反应。对这种供给受到约束的泡沫而言，其标志是收益率下降以及资产升值在总回报所占的比重提高。
通常情况下，价格上涨会增加供给、减少需求，于是存货成为泡沫持续的必要条件。但目前的原油供需变化非比寻常。
据国际能源机构(IEA)统计，超过80%的需求增长来自中东地区和亚太地区。中东地区的原油出口占全球总量一半以上。高油价大幅提高了它的出口收入，而收入增加又刺激了国内对原油的额外需求。推动需求的收入效应，大于压低需求的价格效应。这种不同寻常的需求变化，使得中东地区原油消费与原油价格呈正相关关系。此外，原油出口国有能力将国内成品油价格维持在较低水平上，因为它们无需付出高额成本。高收入和低成本合在一起，对刺激需求有极大的正面作用。上述分析同样适用于其他原油出口国。大约一半的原油需求可以用原油出口国的这种供需变化来解释。
在中国、印度这样的新兴市场国家，价格管制或补贴是维持原油需求的重要因素。能源在发展中国家的产品和生活成本中的比重都要高于发展国家。多数发展中国家很难在不引起政治麻烦的前提下，将上涨的原油价格传递给消费者。倾向于补贴政策的政府总相信这种政策是暂时的，希望原油价格会回落。但事与愿违，由于油价持续上涨，取消补贴的后果越来越严重，使得这些政府不愿意停止补贴。无意中，它们在维持高油价中扮演了重要角色，但同时它们又很害怕高油价。正如原油出口国的原油需求依赖于高价格，进口原油的发展中国家的需求弹性取决于政府补贴政策。此外，原油补贴使得发展中国家的出口商品价格维持在较低水平，这其实是对西方消费者的补贴，使得他们有能力应对本土的高油价。
Limited upside
- The Straits Times Index (STI) has continued to drift lower despite our expectations of a minor rebound. However, there are some signs pointing to a possible minor rebound in the near term. The stochastic indicator has broken above its downtrend line, suggesting that the index is poised for a rebound, and coupled with the MACD which is on the verge of cutting upward, there is a possibility of a minor rebound in the near term.
- BUT, any ascension in the index would be capped by the medium-term downtrend line, which is also within the initial resistance level around 3,000 - 3,100 that we had set in our earlier reports. The 50- and 100-day moving averages are also in proximity to this resistance level, hence the upside seems limited at this juncture.
- We anticipate the downtrend to resume after a near-term temporary relief. This would take the index down to test the recent Mar lows around 2,745. A break below this level would result in the STI falling towards our subsequent support around 2,500 - 2,600.
- BUT, any ascension in the index would be capped by the medium-term downtrend line, which is also within the initial resistance level around 3,000 - 3,100 that we had set in our earlier reports. The 50- and 100-day moving averages are also in proximity to this resistance level, hence the upside seems limited at this juncture.
- We anticipate the downtrend to resume after a near-term temporary relief. This would take the index down to test the recent Mar lows around 2,745. A break below this level would result in the STI falling towards our subsequent support around 2,500 - 2,600.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Fannie, Freddie stocks and bonds plummet
A firestorm of anxiety over the ability of U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get the capital they need to survive sent their debt and stocks plummeting on Thursday.
Stoking concerns, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said the two major U.S. mortgage finance companies were "insolvent" and may need a U.S. government bailout, according to Bloomberg News.
The outlook was so dire that Bush administration officials were meeting with regulators to discuss contingency plans should they be unable to raise funds and support the worst housing market since the Great Depression, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
Yield spread premiums for the larger Fannie Mae rose to the highest since the days before the Federal Reserve's orchestrated bailout of Bear Stearns Cos in March.
Shares in both companies plunged to their lowest since 1991.
The government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, are expected to need billions of dollars in capital to support their balance sheets to try to stabilize the mortgage market. They found strong demand as they raised some $20 billion since last fall, but the instability in share prices since raises doubts about new investor support.
"This is not an opportune time to have to increase liquidity with the stocks down so much," said Alan Lancz, president of investment advisory firm Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio. "These dilutive deals these companies are putting together are just increasing that downward spiral within the financials, not even to mention the confidence in the whole system."
Mounting doubts over the ability of the companies led Deutsche Bank analyst Mustafa Chowdhury, a former Freddie Mac executive, on a Wednesday conference call to float the possibility that share prices could go below $5.
For the debt, much depends on the continued support of foreign central banks that have been loading up on the companies' $1.6 trillion in outstanding debt, a Deutsche Bank trader said on the call.
"If you are going to bail out Bear Stearns, the Congress is going to support Fannie and Freddie," said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products at MF Global in New York.
Yields on 10-year bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ballooned 10 basis points to more than 1 percentage point above government debt. They had been quoted as much as 12 basis points wider than late Wednesday.
Five-year credit default swaps on Fannie Mae widened by about 5 basis points to nearly 82 basis points, or $82,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt, while Freddie Mac's swaps widened by about 2 basis points to about 82 basis points.
Poole's remarks intensified traders' fears about the financial soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The mortgage-backed securities issued and guaranteed by the GSEs were more insulated since payments on the issues flow directly from homeowners to investors.
Early weakness in the "agency" debt market spilled into other parts of the bond market. Interest rate swap spreads grew anywhere from 0.50 basis points to 1.50 basis points.
Stoking concerns, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said the two major U.S. mortgage finance companies were "insolvent" and may need a U.S. government bailout, according to Bloomberg News.
The outlook was so dire that Bush administration officials were meeting with regulators to discuss contingency plans should they be unable to raise funds and support the worst housing market since the Great Depression, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
Yield spread premiums for the larger Fannie Mae rose to the highest since the days before the Federal Reserve's orchestrated bailout of Bear Stearns Cos in March.
Shares in both companies plunged to their lowest since 1991.
The government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, are expected to need billions of dollars in capital to support their balance sheets to try to stabilize the mortgage market. They found strong demand as they raised some $20 billion since last fall, but the instability in share prices since raises doubts about new investor support.
"This is not an opportune time to have to increase liquidity with the stocks down so much," said Alan Lancz, president of investment advisory firm Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio. "These dilutive deals these companies are putting together are just increasing that downward spiral within the financials, not even to mention the confidence in the whole system."
Mounting doubts over the ability of the companies led Deutsche Bank analyst Mustafa Chowdhury, a former Freddie Mac executive, on a Wednesday conference call to float the possibility that share prices could go below $5.
For the debt, much depends on the continued support of foreign central banks that have been loading up on the companies' $1.6 trillion in outstanding debt, a Deutsche Bank trader said on the call.
"If you are going to bail out Bear Stearns, the Congress is going to support Fannie and Freddie," said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products at MF Global in New York.
Yields on 10-year bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ballooned 10 basis points to more than 1 percentage point above government debt. They had been quoted as much as 12 basis points wider than late Wednesday.
Five-year credit default swaps on Fannie Mae widened by about 5 basis points to nearly 82 basis points, or $82,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt, while Freddie Mac's swaps widened by about 2 basis points to about 82 basis points.
Poole's remarks intensified traders' fears about the financial soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The mortgage-backed securities issued and guaranteed by the GSEs were more insulated since payments on the issues flow directly from homeowners to investors.
Early weakness in the "agency" debt market spilled into other parts of the bond market. Interest rate swap spreads grew anywhere from 0.50 basis points to 1.50 basis points.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
The uncanny predictions of ‘Dr Doom’ Marc Faber
It seems to be entirely natural that commodity prices should move inversely to stock prices, as we’re seeing currently. After all, don’t high commodity prices lead to higher inflation, which is bad for stocks? But strangely enough, it wasn’t so long ago that both commodity and stock prices were moving up together. During the golden years of 2003-07, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) commodity price index went up from 65.04 to 134.9, yet that was also the period of a great bull run in stocks and nobody complained of inflation.
That’s not the only mystery. Go back a few years and we find that the huge rally in global stocks in the 1990s, which lifted the MSCI Barra World Free Index from 122 as of 29 January 1993 to a peak of 350.8 on 31 March 2000, was accompanied by essentially flat commodity prices. Over the period, IMF’s commodity price index rose all of 20%. And global inflation, according to IMF’s calculations, fell from 35% in 1993 to 4.5% by 2000.
Over the last 15 years, therefore, we’ve had times when commodities were stable while stocks rose, periods when both commodities and stocks languished (2000-02) and another period when stocks as well as commodities climbed. And now we have rising commodity prices and falling stocks.
To explain this conundrum, we have to turn to none other than Marc Faber, the perma bear who revels in the sobriquet of Dr Doom. In November 2005, Faber wrote a piece for the website Whiskey and Gunpowder titled Fed Rate Hikes: A Roadmap to Financial Ruin, in which he explained that the reason lax monetary policy in the 1980s and 1990s did not result in inflation in the US was because commodity prices were falling at the time. Wrote Faber: “In the eighties and nineties, the developed world enjoyed the tailwind of declining commodity prices and the outsourcing of production and services to low-cost countries, which, despite easy monetary policies, didn’t lead to rising consumer price inflation. (Other factors contributing to disinflation were the peace dividend, privatizations and aggressive cost-cutting measures by the corporate sector, and—not to be forgotten—declining interest rates, which reduced the financing costs of companies.)”
And then he added, with uncanny prescience: “But the next time the Fed embarks on a massive liquidity creating exercise (such as the one Alan Greenspan implemented following the Nasdaq collapse in 2000), these favourable conditions may no longer be in place.” In other words, when commodity prices are low, inflation can be contained despite loose monetary policy. It’s only when the commodity cycle turns that loose monetary policy results in higher inflation, which in turn affects stocks. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when a combination of loose monetary policy and high oil prices sent inflation soaring. Small wonder that comparisons are now being made between the current situation and the oil shocks of the 1970s.
But surely, the beneficial effect of low-cost production from China and low-cost services from India continues? Observers have long argued that while the prices of manufactured goods may fall because of competition from low-cost producers, the prices of raw materials needed to make those goods will rise. Hence the market aphorism: Buy what China buys, sell what China sells. The impact of strong growth in emerging markets on commodity prices is easily seen from the fact that, while IMF’s commodity price index moved up by 18.5% in the 11 years between 1992 and 2003, it rallied by 107% in the next four years. That’s not all—Chinese producers, beset by higher raw material prices, have no alternative but to pass it on to their customers in other countries.
In 2005, Faber predicted that the US Fed would slash interest rates dramatically if it saw a threat to growth. Wrote Faber: “When the Fed realizes that the economy is weaker than expected, it will reverse its tightening bias, cut rates, and ease massively.” That is precisely what happened. Faced with the collapse of the housing bubble, the US central bank slashed the Fed funds rate from 5.25% in September 2007 to 2% by April. But the effect hasn’t really been what the Fed wanted. US mortgage rates are nearly at the level they were at a year ago, in spite of all the rate cuts.
Faber predicted that dollar weakness, rising commodity prices and rising import prices could lift the rate of consumer price increases and the yield on long-term bonds above the rate of asset and wage inflation (which means declining asset prices and wages in real terms). Wrote Faber: “If that were to occur, the economy wouldn’t benefit from the easier monetary policies at all. Moderate stagflation would follow.”
That is exactly the scenario facing the US Fed as it debates whether to call a halt to rate reductions at its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unfortunately, Faber spoilt the effect by going on to predict an apocalypse for the world economy, with hyperinflation, war and religious strife. His final prediction: “A deflationary stabilization crisis will follow in phase four of our road to financial fiasco. Large segments of the population will be totally impoverished. Smart hedge fund managers will all have sold their businesses to banks and will have left the US to live in the Caribbean, Brazil, Singapore, or Thailand, while...Ben Bernanke will flee the US in a hurry.”
That’s not the only mystery. Go back a few years and we find that the huge rally in global stocks in the 1990s, which lifted the MSCI Barra World Free Index from 122 as of 29 January 1993 to a peak of 350.8 on 31 March 2000, was accompanied by essentially flat commodity prices. Over the period, IMF’s commodity price index rose all of 20%. And global inflation, according to IMF’s calculations, fell from 35% in 1993 to 4.5% by 2000.
Over the last 15 years, therefore, we’ve had times when commodities were stable while stocks rose, periods when both commodities and stocks languished (2000-02) and another period when stocks as well as commodities climbed. And now we have rising commodity prices and falling stocks.
To explain this conundrum, we have to turn to none other than Marc Faber, the perma bear who revels in the sobriquet of Dr Doom. In November 2005, Faber wrote a piece for the website Whiskey and Gunpowder titled Fed Rate Hikes: A Roadmap to Financial Ruin, in which he explained that the reason lax monetary policy in the 1980s and 1990s did not result in inflation in the US was because commodity prices were falling at the time. Wrote Faber: “In the eighties and nineties, the developed world enjoyed the tailwind of declining commodity prices and the outsourcing of production and services to low-cost countries, which, despite easy monetary policies, didn’t lead to rising consumer price inflation. (Other factors contributing to disinflation were the peace dividend, privatizations and aggressive cost-cutting measures by the corporate sector, and—not to be forgotten—declining interest rates, which reduced the financing costs of companies.)”
And then he added, with uncanny prescience: “But the next time the Fed embarks on a massive liquidity creating exercise (such as the one Alan Greenspan implemented following the Nasdaq collapse in 2000), these favourable conditions may no longer be in place.” In other words, when commodity prices are low, inflation can be contained despite loose monetary policy. It’s only when the commodity cycle turns that loose monetary policy results in higher inflation, which in turn affects stocks. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when a combination of loose monetary policy and high oil prices sent inflation soaring. Small wonder that comparisons are now being made between the current situation and the oil shocks of the 1970s.
But surely, the beneficial effect of low-cost production from China and low-cost services from India continues? Observers have long argued that while the prices of manufactured goods may fall because of competition from low-cost producers, the prices of raw materials needed to make those goods will rise. Hence the market aphorism: Buy what China buys, sell what China sells. The impact of strong growth in emerging markets on commodity prices is easily seen from the fact that, while IMF’s commodity price index moved up by 18.5% in the 11 years between 1992 and 2003, it rallied by 107% in the next four years. That’s not all—Chinese producers, beset by higher raw material prices, have no alternative but to pass it on to their customers in other countries.
In 2005, Faber predicted that the US Fed would slash interest rates dramatically if it saw a threat to growth. Wrote Faber: “When the Fed realizes that the economy is weaker than expected, it will reverse its tightening bias, cut rates, and ease massively.” That is precisely what happened. Faced with the collapse of the housing bubble, the US central bank slashed the Fed funds rate from 5.25% in September 2007 to 2% by April. But the effect hasn’t really been what the Fed wanted. US mortgage rates are nearly at the level they were at a year ago, in spite of all the rate cuts.
Faber predicted that dollar weakness, rising commodity prices and rising import prices could lift the rate of consumer price increases and the yield on long-term bonds above the rate of asset and wage inflation (which means declining asset prices and wages in real terms). Wrote Faber: “If that were to occur, the economy wouldn’t benefit from the easier monetary policies at all. Moderate stagflation would follow.”
That is exactly the scenario facing the US Fed as it debates whether to call a halt to rate reductions at its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unfortunately, Faber spoilt the effect by going on to predict an apocalypse for the world economy, with hyperinflation, war and religious strife. His final prediction: “A deflationary stabilization crisis will follow in phase four of our road to financial fiasco. Large segments of the population will be totally impoverished. Smart hedge fund managers will all have sold their businesses to banks and will have left the US to live in the Caribbean, Brazil, Singapore, or Thailand, while...Ben Bernanke will flee the US in a hurry.”
Marc Faber Warns Chinese Stock Bubble Still Deflating
Not everyone is sold on a rebound in Chinese stocks. According to Bloomberg this morning, Dr. Marc Faber, aka “Dr. Doom,” won’t be first in line to buy up these battered equities. Bloomberg’s Chua Kong Ho wrote:
Investors betting on a rebound in China’s tumbling stocks are setting themselves up for more losses, according to Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and correctly predicted last August the U.S. would enter a bear market.
Faber’s forecast contrasts with local stock analysts, who are as bullish as ever even after a 51 percent plunge in the CSI 300 Index since its October record. “Buy” calls still make up two-thirds of all recommendations for Chinese stocks, virtually unchanged from the market’s peak, according to Bloomberg data.
I just wouldn’t buy. When a bubble bursts, you only hit bottom when people totally give up and vow they’ll never buy stocks again. People are still more worried they’ll miss the next rally.
The last time Chinese stocks fell by half — from a June 2001 high — the Shanghai Composite Index took four years to reach its low.
Even so, the Swiss-born investor admitted there could be a short-term bounce after such a huge decline:
We could have rebounds of 20 to 30 percent, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would rather use rebounds as a selling opportunity.
Marc Faber Predicts Fall In Demand For Oil, Industrial Commodities
Yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg reported that commodities finished their best first half in 35 years, as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 29% through June 30. However, well-known contrarian investor Marc Faber told the financial news outlet that demand for industrial commodities, including oil, will fall, along with prices. Bloomberg’s Monica Bertran and Millie Munshi wrote:
“The industrial-commodity complex is vulnerable because demand will slow down,” said Faber, publisher of investment newsletter the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. “The economy is weakening, corporate profits will disappoint, valuations are not particularly attractive, and the financial sector that serves to channel savings into investment is in disarray.”
Demand for commodities will fall after raw materials including oil, corn, copper and gold touched record highs in the first half, Faber said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The global economic slowdown will last a “very long time,” he said.
Discussing the $400 billion in write-downs at banks and securities firms worldwide, the Swiss-born investor said:
“The financial crisis has been the appetizer. We still need the main dish.”
Marc Faber: ‘Would Rather Buy Gold At This Stage Than Oil’
When it comes to commodities, Marc Faber, know as “Dr. Doom” by the financial press, prefers gold over oil. During a conference call hosted by U.S. Global Investors last Friday, Dr. Faber, who is famous for advising clients to get out of the U.S. stock market one week before the October 1987 crash, said:
I personally would rather buy gold at this stage than oil.
Although he said he wouldn’t rule out oil prices rising to $150 or $170 a barrel, Faber said the U.S. government’s recent discussions about how to limit speculative trading in oil futures could pull the plug quickly.
“I think we could have a serious correction — to $100 or below,” he said. “To curtail speculators in commodities in the U.S. could drive people like the pension funds… to go and buy gold.”
Faber also mentioned that gold is “very, very cheap” compared with oil now and that the oil-to-gold ratio is at its highest level ever.
Cheap?
Investors should go into gold as its price did not rise as fast as that of other commodities while the central bank keeps printing money, Faber said.
The Swiss-born investor told CNBC he believes gold may continue to shine while demand for other commodities declines as the result of a slowing global economy.
Investors betting on a rebound in China’s tumbling stocks are setting themselves up for more losses, according to Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and correctly predicted last August the U.S. would enter a bear market.
Faber’s forecast contrasts with local stock analysts, who are as bullish as ever even after a 51 percent plunge in the CSI 300 Index since its October record. “Buy” calls still make up two-thirds of all recommendations for Chinese stocks, virtually unchanged from the market’s peak, according to Bloomberg data.
I just wouldn’t buy. When a bubble bursts, you only hit bottom when people totally give up and vow they’ll never buy stocks again. People are still more worried they’ll miss the next rally.
The last time Chinese stocks fell by half — from a June 2001 high — the Shanghai Composite Index took four years to reach its low.
Even so, the Swiss-born investor admitted there could be a short-term bounce after such a huge decline:
We could have rebounds of 20 to 30 percent, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would rather use rebounds as a selling opportunity.
Marc Faber Predicts Fall In Demand For Oil, Industrial Commodities
Yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg reported that commodities finished their best first half in 35 years, as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 29% through June 30. However, well-known contrarian investor Marc Faber told the financial news outlet that demand for industrial commodities, including oil, will fall, along with prices. Bloomberg’s Monica Bertran and Millie Munshi wrote:
“The industrial-commodity complex is vulnerable because demand will slow down,” said Faber, publisher of investment newsletter the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. “The economy is weakening, corporate profits will disappoint, valuations are not particularly attractive, and the financial sector that serves to channel savings into investment is in disarray.”
Demand for commodities will fall after raw materials including oil, corn, copper and gold touched record highs in the first half, Faber said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The global economic slowdown will last a “very long time,” he said.
Discussing the $400 billion in write-downs at banks and securities firms worldwide, the Swiss-born investor said:
“The financial crisis has been the appetizer. We still need the main dish.”
Marc Faber: ‘Would Rather Buy Gold At This Stage Than Oil’
When it comes to commodities, Marc Faber, know as “Dr. Doom” by the financial press, prefers gold over oil. During a conference call hosted by U.S. Global Investors last Friday, Dr. Faber, who is famous for advising clients to get out of the U.S. stock market one week before the October 1987 crash, said:
I personally would rather buy gold at this stage than oil.
Although he said he wouldn’t rule out oil prices rising to $150 or $170 a barrel, Faber said the U.S. government’s recent discussions about how to limit speculative trading in oil futures could pull the plug quickly.
“I think we could have a serious correction — to $100 or below,” he said. “To curtail speculators in commodities in the U.S. could drive people like the pension funds… to go and buy gold.”
Faber also mentioned that gold is “very, very cheap” compared with oil now and that the oil-to-gold ratio is at its highest level ever.
Cheap?
Investors should go into gold as its price did not rise as fast as that of other commodities while the central bank keeps printing money, Faber said.
The Swiss-born investor told CNBC he believes gold may continue to shine while demand for other commodities declines as the result of a slowing global economy.
Credit Crisis Worse Than Long-Term Capital Management Collapse in ’98
Unlike all the Wall Street strategists who compare the current credit crisis to the credit crisis of 1998 (Long Term Capital Management), I believe that the ongoing credit problems will be far worse and of a longer-term nature. This will make it difficult for the market to reach new highs in the near future. Moreover, even if the 1998 comparison were to hold, we would still be looking at a much deeper stock market correction than the 22% sell-off we saw in 1998.
The stock market peaked out in July 1998, after having been in an uptrend since the 1991 lows. It then sold off on the Russian default and on the LTCM crisis by 22% to its intraday low on October 9, 1998. When it became obvious that the Fed would bail out LTCM, and it flooded the system with liquidity, the stock market took off. Between the October 9 intraday low and the year end, it rallied by 33%, to achieve a new all-time high, and then continued to rise — interrupted by a correction in 1999 — into the final March 2000 top.
Pundits who are likening today’s market rout to that of 1998, and who expect the market to rally strongly towards the end of this year and to close at a new all-time high, are failing to consider the very different economic and financial circumstances of today, compared to those of 1998. In the years leading up to the 1998 crisis the US dollar was in a bull market, and interest rates - which had peaked in September 1981 - were in the middle of a secular decline. At the same time, gold and other commodities were still deflating. Also, in the 1990s, the US stock market had significantly outperformed the emerging markets, most of which had peaked out between 1990 and 1994 and had crashed during the Asian crisis of 1997-98.
Therefore, in 1998, the emerging markets and commodity prices were very depressed (unlike today). Moreover, in 1998, house prices weren’t elevated, the subprime lending industry was in its infancy, Japan and Europe were largely stagnant, and Asia and Russia were in depression (i.e. there was no synchronised global growth). The process of securitisation existed, but was very modest when compared to the present.
Today, the key difference is that the dollar looks extremely wobbly. In 1998, the US current account deficit was 2% of GDP; today, it’s hovering around 8%. This massive deficit puts continuous pressure on the dollar. Moreover, gold and other commodities are in an uptrend. There is another reason why conditions today are very different from those in 1998: in 1998, total credit market debt to GDP was 250%; today, it’s 330%. In addition, whereas debt growth averaged 4% per anum in the 1990s, it has averaged almost 10% per annum since 2002. In particular, household debt has surged from 65% of GDP in 1998 to almost 100% in 2007. Since debt growth has been so strong in the last few years, and because the system is now far more leveraged than in 1998 (not to mention the derivatives market), a tidal wave of liquidity would be needed to bail out the system, which would have to lead to even stronger debt growth; but, obviously, it would
only lead to even larger dislocations and problems later.
Another difference: in 1998, the Fed had to deal with the bailout of just one institution — LTCM; today, who should it bail out: the subprime lending institutions (it’s too late), leveraged home owners, the US$2 trillion-plus collateralised debt obligation (CDO) market, or the financial institutions, which are now stuck with over US$200 billion of leveraged buyout (LBO) loan commitments which they cannot sell to investors? So, whereas it was relatively easy to bail out just one institution in 1998, today the task would be extremely complex and daunting. Of course, the Fed could try to bail out everybody by cutting the interest rate aggressively and taking “extraordinary measures”, such as buying up the entire CDO market. [Editor’s note: Faber wrote the words above in late August, well before the Fed’s aggressive rate cut yesterday.]
Aggressive Fed fund rate cuts may not help much for the following reason: from June 2004 to August 2006, the Fed increased its fund rate in 17 baby steps from 1% to 5-1/4%. During this period of “tightening”, no actual tightening took place because credit growth accelerated as lending standards were eased and leverage increased. Moreover, as Bridgewater Associates recently pointed out, “globally, central banks have kept interest rate levels out of line with economic growth rates”. So, even if the Fed were to cut rates massively now, it is unlikely that it would stimulate credit growth, which, as I have explained repeatedly in the past, must continuously expand at an accelerating rate in a credit- and asset-driven economy in order to keep the economic plane from losing altitude. Accelerating credit growth is most unlikely now, because I cannot see how financial intermediaries will ease lending standards any time soon after the losses they have recently endured and following their dismal stock performance.
In addition, being fairly familiar with the cowardly attitude of investors, it is most unlikely that investors will now wish to buy anything other than top-quality paper and solid companies’ shares. Therefore, I can see only one solution if the Fed really wanted to attempt to bail out the system, and that would be for it to drastically cut interest rates. Unfortunately, massive interest rate cuts at present may not help much and could potentially have very negative side-effects (an even weaker dollar, inflation, rising long-term interest rates, further widening of income and wealth inequity etc.)
The crises that build up in international financial structures always ricochet from country to country…. Boom, distress and panic are transmitted through a variety of connections between national economies: psychological infection, rising and falling prices of commodities and securities, short-term capital movements, interest rates, the rise and fall of world commodity inventories.
These connections, moreover, can take various forms, and may be interrelated in various ways…. Boom and panic in one country seem to induce boom and panic in others, often through purely psychological channels…. Just as one huge bubble breeds others in a country, so a host of bubbles in a financial market seems to inspire the production of others in other countries.
For the last several years, investors have enjoyed a massive global boom. But they should not rule out a massive global panic.
The stock market peaked out in July 1998, after having been in an uptrend since the 1991 lows. It then sold off on the Russian default and on the LTCM crisis by 22% to its intraday low on October 9, 1998. When it became obvious that the Fed would bail out LTCM, and it flooded the system with liquidity, the stock market took off. Between the October 9 intraday low and the year end, it rallied by 33%, to achieve a new all-time high, and then continued to rise — interrupted by a correction in 1999 — into the final March 2000 top.
Pundits who are likening today’s market rout to that of 1998, and who expect the market to rally strongly towards the end of this year and to close at a new all-time high, are failing to consider the very different economic and financial circumstances of today, compared to those of 1998. In the years leading up to the 1998 crisis the US dollar was in a bull market, and interest rates - which had peaked in September 1981 - were in the middle of a secular decline. At the same time, gold and other commodities were still deflating. Also, in the 1990s, the US stock market had significantly outperformed the emerging markets, most of which had peaked out between 1990 and 1994 and had crashed during the Asian crisis of 1997-98.
Therefore, in 1998, the emerging markets and commodity prices were very depressed (unlike today). Moreover, in 1998, house prices weren’t elevated, the subprime lending industry was in its infancy, Japan and Europe were largely stagnant, and Asia and Russia were in depression (i.e. there was no synchronised global growth). The process of securitisation existed, but was very modest when compared to the present.
Today, the key difference is that the dollar looks extremely wobbly. In 1998, the US current account deficit was 2% of GDP; today, it’s hovering around 8%. This massive deficit puts continuous pressure on the dollar. Moreover, gold and other commodities are in an uptrend. There is another reason why conditions today are very different from those in 1998: in 1998, total credit market debt to GDP was 250%; today, it’s 330%. In addition, whereas debt growth averaged 4% per anum in the 1990s, it has averaged almost 10% per annum since 2002. In particular, household debt has surged from 65% of GDP in 1998 to almost 100% in 2007. Since debt growth has been so strong in the last few years, and because the system is now far more leveraged than in 1998 (not to mention the derivatives market), a tidal wave of liquidity would be needed to bail out the system, which would have to lead to even stronger debt growth; but, obviously, it would
only lead to even larger dislocations and problems later.
Another difference: in 1998, the Fed had to deal with the bailout of just one institution — LTCM; today, who should it bail out: the subprime lending institutions (it’s too late), leveraged home owners, the US$2 trillion-plus collateralised debt obligation (CDO) market, or the financial institutions, which are now stuck with over US$200 billion of leveraged buyout (LBO) loan commitments which they cannot sell to investors? So, whereas it was relatively easy to bail out just one institution in 1998, today the task would be extremely complex and daunting. Of course, the Fed could try to bail out everybody by cutting the interest rate aggressively and taking “extraordinary measures”, such as buying up the entire CDO market. [Editor’s note: Faber wrote the words above in late August, well before the Fed’s aggressive rate cut yesterday.]
Aggressive Fed fund rate cuts may not help much for the following reason: from June 2004 to August 2006, the Fed increased its fund rate in 17 baby steps from 1% to 5-1/4%. During this period of “tightening”, no actual tightening took place because credit growth accelerated as lending standards were eased and leverage increased. Moreover, as Bridgewater Associates recently pointed out, “globally, central banks have kept interest rate levels out of line with economic growth rates”. So, even if the Fed were to cut rates massively now, it is unlikely that it would stimulate credit growth, which, as I have explained repeatedly in the past, must continuously expand at an accelerating rate in a credit- and asset-driven economy in order to keep the economic plane from losing altitude. Accelerating credit growth is most unlikely now, because I cannot see how financial intermediaries will ease lending standards any time soon after the losses they have recently endured and following their dismal stock performance.
In addition, being fairly familiar with the cowardly attitude of investors, it is most unlikely that investors will now wish to buy anything other than top-quality paper and solid companies’ shares. Therefore, I can see only one solution if the Fed really wanted to attempt to bail out the system, and that would be for it to drastically cut interest rates. Unfortunately, massive interest rate cuts at present may not help much and could potentially have very negative side-effects (an even weaker dollar, inflation, rising long-term interest rates, further widening of income and wealth inequity etc.)
The crises that build up in international financial structures always ricochet from country to country…. Boom, distress and panic are transmitted through a variety of connections between national economies: psychological infection, rising and falling prices of commodities and securities, short-term capital movements, interest rates, the rise and fall of world commodity inventories.
These connections, moreover, can take various forms, and may be interrelated in various ways…. Boom and panic in one country seem to induce boom and panic in others, often through purely psychological channels…. Just as one huge bubble breeds others in a country, so a host of bubbles in a financial market seems to inspire the production of others in other countries.
For the last several years, investors have enjoyed a massive global boom. But they should not rule out a massive global panic.
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