想做长期投资，却又陷入「是否要脱手卖掉」、「股价久未反映企业价值」的焦虑与內在冲突，原因在于尚未建立分享企业价值的透彻认知。
有句话是这样说的，「众鸟在林，不如一鸟在手」── 许多鸟在天上飞呀飞，看似缤纷精彩，但也只是过眼云烟，倒还不如手中紧抓一只，才是实际拥有。此话相当程度能夠反映许多人对于「长期持有」的恐惧。就像我们经常遇到法人资产管理者、或是个人投资人提到的疑问，「长期持有某支企业的股票，若沒有脱手变现，只是纸上富贵，风险是否在所难免，终究也无法享有其长期价值？」
这样的疑问，通常也伴随着这两种现实上的考量：「是否脱手卖掉、实现获利，才是财富成长的最佳选项？」；以及，「若市场股价迟迟尚未反映预估的企业內在价值（例如次级房贷事件造成的市场混乱），又该如何观之？」
这两大考量的探索与思考，对于有心长期持有的投资者而言，至为重要。原因在于，若沒有对「长期持有」与「內在价值」有清晰认知的话，则可能长期处在「该怎么办」的內在冲突；若能充分探讨与理解，心理建設足夠，往后在投资心态上会更有余裕、有定见。
■价值，以「自由现金流」为依归
要回答上述这两大考量，事实上都和两个字有关 ---「价值」，也就是以企业未來的现金流加以平均、折现而得出。企业的自由现金流（Free Cash Flow），就是企业在扣除掉所有的必需性支出后，实质上可以自由运用的钱。这是评估企业內在价值的最主要依归。
看好一间企业的长期內在价值、決定挹注资本、购入股权之后，事实上就是一位「不参与企业实际营运的合伙人」，此即巴菲特所采取的「事业导向」的投资方式。长期持有最重要的观念在于，企业所产生的价值，身为合伙人的你，无论是否出售持股，都可以分享其价值，而冒然出脱，反而会产生风险。
■冒然出脱实现获利，产生烦恼和风险
先看风险。
举例来说，假设计算出來，A企业的內在价值，有120元。然而，目前股价仅有45元(且短期內市场气氛悲观不太可能一飞沖天)，在40元就购入持有的你，可能会考量是否应该获利了结，先把5块钱现金拿回手上，比较妥当。
可是，这样一來，拿到这笔钱的你，可能就产生了新烦恼和新风险。
首先是拿回手上的现金，就必须开始對抗通膨，否则会日渐萎缩；另外，这笔拿回手上的现金，本身並不能再创造出价值（不能源源不绝提升你的购买能力），所以勢必要寻找新的投资机会，这样一来，就可能产生再投资风险（Reinvestment Risk，意即新投入的投资标的，可能未能创造如同A企业的获利、甚至可能赔钱）
■长期股东分享企业价值，无关股价波动
再看价值分享。
你可能会有疑问：「持有企业股份，又不似实际经营企业，怎么分享企业价值？」事实上，身为股东，所能获得的总体股东报酬（Total Returns to Shareholders，TRS），主要包含了「股价增值」和「股利」两部分。换言之，即使今天股价因为市场气氛因素，迟迟未反映其內在价值，股东仍可透过股利分享其內在价值，享有企业创造出来的营运利润，无关股价波东。
不过，就资本管理的角度而言，配发股息並非长期股东分享企业內在价值的最佳方式。除了前述拿到一笔钱所产生的再投资风险之外，要缴交的税务，也会在无形中损耗了投资效益。
所以，「将资金保留、不配发股息，而用于再投资，为股东创造更高价值」，是更令人欣赏的方式。你可以这样看：若是企业保留1块钱，能为股东创造出更高的价值，这样的保留就有意义。具体而言，Cash is king，但要看是谁用才夠力！你可以由企业财务报表上，拆解出企业的资本报酬率（Return On Investment Capital，ROIC），这个数值，是企业研究人员评量企业运用资本的能力，若是企业的资本报酬率比起你的机会成本还高(通常就是以你储蓄的最高利率來估，最中道)，那么企业保留股利、不配发，就有意义，这相当于企业里面有一群投资团队为你代劳，将你应得、却保留在企业里的资金，做更有效的投资运用。
因此像是巴菲特所负责的波克夏集团，即维持长年不配发股利的习惯。原因在于巴菲特有自信、也有能力，能将股东交予他代为运用的资金，化为资本、长期挹注到极佳的事业体，创造更高投资效益，而波克夏股东也乐见于此。换言之，一鸟在手，不如让群翼展翅，更能创造价值。
■投资，就是彰显你认同的价值观
即使短期內，长期看好的企业股价，受到市场气氛干扰，而无起色，都不需太过优心，因为那是属于金融层面的事情，与经济层面无关。只要是属于经济层面的企业经营、运作正常，持续有源源不绝的自由现金流产生，就代表企业价值並沒有受到毀损。就像是一位定期收到租金的房东，只要租金正常收到，就算房价有高低波东，又怎么愿意冒然将金鸡母脱手呢。
再进一步，试着想想看，作为长期投資者，可以透过股价增值、股利得到价值的回馈，即使企业采行不发放股利的政策，而将资金再投资于企业的成长，只要资本报酬率维持在高水准，那么长期而言，也会不断提升企业的自由現金流，带动企业的价值成长，这样不是很好吗？无论你是个人投资者或法人资产管理，这一种源源不绝的投资方式，都兼具了富足和永续的思维特质。当你建立了这样的认知，往后再接触到市场的波动或悲观气氛，你将会了解，这只是市场的不断循环，而现在，你已经有了足夠的视野和态度，足以彰显你所认同的投资价值观。
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
SMRT
Back on the Rails: Upgrade to Hold, Target S$1.88
Higher sustainable rail ridership — Raising estimates 13-15% for SMRT, on higher rail ridership growth, plus upside to high-margin advertising and rental income for FY09E operating margins of 13% and ROE of 23%. Government initiatives (increasing public transport usage, doubling of rail network, population increase) supports long-term growth. Risks: near-term high energy costs, and longer term whether the government introduces more competition in the rail space.
Target price S$1.88 — We have afforded SMRT a higher fair-value PER multiple of 17.8x (from 16x), equivalent to a P/BV of 4x, recognizing the rail story's structural growth drivers, stable and highly cash generative business, with recent dividend payouts of 78% of earnings (for a 5% dividend yield), plus the potential long-term growth upside for rail.
Circle Line — Unlike previous new lines, we are optimistic that full operation from 2010 of the Circle Line can be earnings accretive almost from the start due to higher ridership demand and scale benefits from the MRT network.
Long-term rail growth, but sector to be contestable — Land transport master plan prepares for population growth, encourages public transport usage, a doubling of the rail network. New lines Thomson and Eastern Region will be built, while existing North-South and East-West will be extended. The new lines could be opened to more competition.
Expected share price return 2.7%
Expected dividend yield 4.5%
Expected total return 7.3%
Market Cap S$2,773M
Stronger rail ridership trend: +13 to +15% EPS revisions
Target raised 27%: We upgrade SMRT to a Hold, with a new target of S$1.88 (from S$1.48). We raise earnings 13%-15% to reflect: [a] rail revenues raised c.6.5% to reflect a stronger growth trend in rail ridership, [b] c.15% higher revenues from advertising and rental business. We have raised ROE forecast to 23% on an improved operating margin assumption of 23% (from 21%). We no longer use a market multiple to set our target price for SMRT because we expect high-trend sustainable rail ridership growth to drive higher ROEs.
Higher target PE: We accord SMRT a higher PE of 17.8x, equivalent to a P/B of 4x, recognizing the rail story's structural growth drivers, namely estimated 2.5% pa population growth, govt. initiatives to increase use of public transport, and plans to more than double the length of the rail network by 2020. SMRT remains a highly cash generative business; it earns more than enough cashflow to meet annual capex needs and maintain near zero net balance sheet gearing, yet having paid out c.78% of its annual profits over the last few years.
Risks: Key risk to this outlook is rising cost pressures from [1] higher depreciation as SMRT embarks on bus acquisition and train upgrades, [2] rising diesel and electricity costs. The latter may threaten the current barely breakeven status of SMRT's bus, taxi and LRT franchises.
Circle Line: We view the Circle line (CCL), for which one stage should be ready in mid-CY09 (stepping up to full service over CY10), may be marginally profitable from the start given that it reaches a new pool of passengers in relatively highly populated areas, who currently may depend on bus, taxi or private car, and it will benefit from scale economies of the existing MRT lines.
Rail — MRT ridership moving to a higher growth trend
Rail remains SMRT's primary business driver, at 56% of group revenue in FY08 (to March 2008) and (with near 30% operating margins) 72% of operating profit. The key strength of SMRT's FY08 result was the better than trend MRT ridership growth of +7.6%yoy. This represents a step-up in trend growth from FY07 of +5.1% and just +2.8% for FY06 and FY05.
March 2008 quarter spurt: Quarterly data may point to the +11.2%yoy growth in the Mar 2008 qtr as an unusual growth spurt. Some of this was arguably due to "one-off" factors, notably Dec 2007's sharp hike in taxi fares, which not unexpectedly hurt taxi usage in the following months and led to switching to public transport. Although taxi usage has recovered we suspect that marginal users have permanently switched to public transport. The rising cost of petrol and further govt. moves to raise traffic congestion taxes (adding more ERP gantries and raising ERP rates) help to further explain why in Apr-May 2008 ridership continues to remain well above past trend growth rates.
Cyclical improvement in ridership: Beyond the most recent quarter, we would argue that there has been a cyclical uptrend in rail and other public transport usage. We can show this by looking at recent labour force growth trends.
Labour statistics over the past 2 years showed record numbers of job creation, most recently in 2007 with 235,000 new jobs (2006: 176,000, 2005: 113,000).
While a significant proportion of the labour force addition has been foreign workers, these are anecdotally at much lower income brackets than high salaried "expats" and hence are more likely to use rail and buses as their main mode of transport. Preliminary data for the Mar 2008 quarter was also another record quarter, adding 68,400 new jobs.
Drive to improve public transport usage; long-term population growth:
Looking forward, the government has set goals of increasing the share of public transport usage in peak hours and discouraging private car usage through further road congestion taxes (raising ERP rates, installing more ERP gantries and reducing the number of car park spaces in the central areas), as well as improving the efficiency and quality of service of the public transport system.
The govt. is also preparing for a presumed strong trend in population growth, as it plans to more than double the length of the rail network by 2020. We cover this in more detail in the Land Transport review section of this note.
Operational leverage: perhaps the most powerful part of this growth story has been the significant operating leverage that the rail business has enjoyed. In FY08, overall group rail revenues of S$445m represented a 5-yr CAGR of +2.6% over FY03. Rail operating profit by contrast surged fromS$46m in FY03 to S$129m in FY08, a 5-yr CAGR of 23%. One of the key reasons was that the rail system capacity had been underutilized, and the MRT was able to meet this ridership growth with minimal additional operating cost or capital expenditure.
As such rail operating margins rose from 11.7% in FY03 to 28.9% in FY08.
Even in the Mar 2008 quarter, SMRT continued to meet increased readership demand by increasing services frequency from the existing fleet of 106 trains that has remained unchanged for the past several years. In February 2008 an additional 87 weekly services were added to the morning peak period at a minimal additional annual cost of S$1m. In May 2008 a further 700 weekly train trips were added (at an approximate annual cost of S$5m) to capture higher demand during lunchtimes, weekends and off-peak periods. These incremental services within the existing capacity will further enhance operating margins. SMRT has a broad rule of thumb, that where the number of passenger per train trip rises above a range of 1,000-1,200 on a sustained basis then it will add further a further train trip. Mgmt. estimate that the MRT is probably running near full capacity in the morning peak period (approx. 7.30am – 8.45am), where the gap between train trips is just 2.5 minutes, but for other periods, including the evening peak (approx. 6pm-8pm), the gap between trips still remains above 2.5 minutes. Lunch waiting time post the new services has fallen to 3.5 minutes, while non-peak hours still average near 7minutes.
Projecting ridership and earnings for the Circle Line
When the Circle Line commences full operations during CY10, it will mark a significant increase in the length of SMRT's overall rail network. The current MRT network, comprising the North-South (in red) and East-West (green) lines, covers a combined route length of 89.4km and 51 stations, with a fleet of 106 six-car trains. The 33.3km, 29 station Circle Line is an orbital line linking existing MRT stations, which should help to alleviate some of the present peak time commuter crunch that occurs at the city centre MRT stations (Raffles Place and City Hall). A short extension of the East-West line from Boon Lay will also become operational during CY09.
Predicting ridership trends: This is largely guesswork at this stage but we are quite positive, based on the following observations:
Switching from other transport modes: While there may be some cannibalization of ridership from existing lines, we believe the net impact will be a ridership increase since the Circle Line is tapping new geographies that previously relied on bus, taxi or private car at the point of departure.
More central geography:
The experience of the North East line start-up in June 2003 operated by Comfort Delgro showed an immediate ridership population of about 190,000/day, with a sharp 10-15% annual increase thereafter. Arguably Circle Line could start at a higher ridership level than the NEL given the more central area it serves, plus Singapore has a larger population and the economy is in better shape than the conditions of 2003.
Lower breakeven:
Despite strong ridership pick-up, the NEL only broke even operating profit wise in 2006 once ridership averaged 260,000/day (May 2008 ridership is now at 340,000/day). We argue that due to scale and network benefits, CCL could actually reach breakeven at lower ridership levels, suggesting that even in the first full year of operation, the CCL could actually prove to be marginally profitable.
Ridership potential: A "mature" network such as the MRT had a FY2008 average daily ridership of 1.283m/day over its 89.4km network, or about 14,350 per km. On that simple math, a mature ridership for the 33.3km Circle Line in FY2008 terms could have been 478,000/day Earnings contribution: Based on current plans the so called "Stage 3" of the Circe Line (this segment connects with Bishan station on the North-South Line and comprises 5 stations on an approximate 6km stretch of line) should commence operations in mid-2009. Thereafter we expect stages 1,2,4 and 5 of the CCL to be launched through 2010. Assuming full service is achieved by Sept 2010 SMRT's FY2011 (to March 2011) financial year will have approximately half a year of full CCL operations and FY2012 the first fully financial year of service. In its first few years of operation the NEL made losses of S$33m, S$17m and S$6m, before breaking even in 2006. Conservatively, we have assumed annualized average daily ridership for the CCL to start at 200,000 in FY011, and we have assumed zero profit contribution (nor have we assumed any losses) for now.
LRT, bus and taxis likely to be barely breakeven businesses SMRT's other transport operations, the Bukit Panjang LRT, bus and taxis, simply lack the business scale of the main MRT rail network, and (for bus and LRT) serve mainly less well-populated areas of Singapore. As such these have at best remained marginal contributors to overall operating profit (or even small loss-makers), and we expect much of the same for our forecast period.
LRT: In FY08 operating losses had fallen for LRT to less than S$0.4m. Though less dramatic than for the MRT, average daily ridership for the Bukit Panjang LRT network grew 5.4%yoy to 41,400 in FY08, and +7.2%yoy for the Mar2008 quarter. Annual revenues rose 6.6%yoy to S$8.6m, having the operating loss to S$0.4m (FY07 S$1m loss). Mgt guidance suggests a ridership level of about 50,000 would take the operation to breakeven, which still appears to be a couple of years away.
Bus: The fall in FY08 bus profits S$1.5m (FY07: S$5.6m) was disappointing but not unexpected. SMRT's fleet of 800 buses saw average daily ridership of 757,700 in FY08, +2.3%yoy. Although this translated to revenue growth of +2.9%yoy to S$195.9m, the sharp drop in operating profit to S$1.5m from S$5.6m was largely due to the sharp increase in diesel fuel costs, particularly in the last six months. Careful mgmt of costs will be necessary to prevent the bus franchise falling into losses near term (4QFY08 bus operating profit was just S$164,000) as diesel fuel prices continued to rise since Mar 2008.
Taxi: The taxi franchise turned around from a meaningful S$5m loss in FY07 to a mall profit in FY08. Notwithstanding the impact of the Dec 2007 taxi fare hike, SMRT's fleet of 3,002 taxis enjoyed +20.4%yoy growth in taxis hired out of 2,719 (90.5% hired out rate) and a 10.8% rise in revenue to S$75.4m, translating into a small operating profit of S$0.6m. SMRT's taxi model is a rentals model (daily rentals range from S$65/day for a Nissan and S$78/day for a Toyota taxi to up to S$120/day for a Mercedes taxi). While SMRT provides diesel to it taxi drivers at cost (which is below retail price plus it buys in bulk) it does not provide a direct fuel subsidy.
Further revenue opportunities from advertising and rental
Despite being less than 8% of group revenues, advertising and retail space rental contributed a significant 25% to group operating profit in FY08, due to rich operating margins of 66% and 74% respectively. These businesses saw robust growth in FY2008, largely due to renovation and a more active usage of MRT hall space and trains, and mgmt are seeking further growth in FY09, given increased lettable space (post station refurbishments), and seeking new advertising space and media (such as the recently launched "Tunnel TV".
Advertising:
Revenues reached S$19.8m (+16.7%yoy) in FY08 (although Mar 2008 quarter revenues fell 3%yoy) from increased advertising on all modes of transport. Operating profit of S$13.1m was up 19%yoy.
Retail rental:
FY08 revenues grew 21.8%yoy to S$42m and operating profit +22.7%yoy to S$30.9m in line with a 20.3%yoy increase in total lettable space to 27,862 sq.m. This growth was due to the refurbishment of 26 MRT stations since FY05, with 4 more completed in the Mar 2008 quarter. Mgmt is guiding that rental revenue could increase by more than S$10m in FY09, but we have continued to conservatively assume a lower growth rate.
Engineering and other operations:
This segment made an operating profit of S$1.3m (down 65%yoy) on revenues of S$23.5m (+13%yoy). The sharp fall was likely due to diesel sales, which made an operating loss due to rising diesel prices. There were also higher project expenses, as SMRT embarked on its first overseas project, an operating and maintenance project to run the Palm Jumeirah Monorail project in Dubai. This will be a "cost-plus" contract fro
SMRT (so no participation in revenue upside) which is still in the consultancy phase. The monorail is expected to be fully operational from 1 April 2009, carrying up to 2,400 passengers per hour in four separate driverless trains of 3 cars per train.
Managing costs will be a key concern
We see 3 areas of cost growth that could hurt operating margins and overall business performance.
Electricity:
Electricity accounted for 47% of total energy-related cost in FY08.
SMRT signed a new 6-month contact for the Apr-Sep 2008 period at a 15% increase in rates with Senoko power. Electricity cost is expected to rise given record oil prices and we will have to monitor what further price increases will occur in the second half of the financial year.
Diesel:
Diesel prices mainly directly affect SMRT's bus division profits, as for taxis SMRT buys and sells on the diesel to its drivers at cost. Bus was barely break-even in the March quarter (S$0.164m) and since then average diesel prices have risen further.
Depreciation and capex:
SMRT has for several years maintained annual capex of just over S$100m in effect being maintenance capex. This has begun to move up recently, as it began from FY07 the mid-life upgrade of 66 of its 106 MRT trains (most of which date back to 1987), giving in effect a complete refurbishment of the train aside the engine and bogeys. This work will cost a total of S$143m and should be completed by end CY2008.
SMRT is also adding its fleet of 861 buses through the purchase of 67 new buses, with an estimated capex of S$20-30m. This will go towards meeting new Quality of service (QoS) standard introduced last year. The new buses, which include wheelchair facilities, will be delivered by 1QFY2009. about 179 of the existing bus fleet have undergone a mid-life upgrade, wit a plan to have upgraded 85% of the total fleet over the next 8 years.
Staff:
Staff costs have been growing at an underlying rate of 3%-4% annually.
SMRT's main headcount increase will be in the region of 100 in preparation of the Circle Line stage 3 opening.
Land Transport review — positives and negatives
Key positive— sustained higher rail ridership growth
Population growth: The higher trend rail ridership, one of the main reasons for our earnings upgrade of SMRT, we believe is here to stay for the long term. The key underpinning of this is growth in the Singapore population, which we estimate could grow over 25% from the present 4.6m to about 5.8m in approximately 13 years (+1.8%CAGR). While no specific population targets have been officially announced by the government, we infer this figure from the forecast 327,200 island wide residential units to be added in the next 10-15 years under the URA 2008 Master Plan. At an average of 3.7 persons per household (per the year 2000 Census) this translates into a population addition of just over 1.2m. Extending this argument further, this could see the Singapore labour force growing from 2.75m to over 3.42m (assuming a participation rate of 59%).
Increasing use of public transport: An explicit goal of the review is to increase
use of public transport during peak hours. In 2007 the share of public transport usage during was 63%, and it is targeted that this is increased to 70% by 2020. Simple math dictates that on this basis, public transport ridership could grow at a faster pace than the total population/labour force figure of about 2.5% per annum. This growth is of course also supported by the planned increase in the rail network, beyond the opening of the Circle Line.
Doubling the length of the rail network:
It is possible that these estimates will prove too conservative. The government will expand the rail network by building 2 new rail lines - the Thomson Line and Eastern Region Line. The Thomson line will travel from MarinA bay northwards to Ang Mo Kio and onward to Woodlands via Sin Ming, Kebun Baru, Thomson and Kim Seng.
From Marina Bay, the Thomson line will connect with another new MRT line, the Eastern Region Line. (ER). The ER line will serve Tanjong Rhu, Marine Parade, Siglap, Bedok South and Upper East Coast, and connect to Changi in the east. These 2 new lines will expand the network by 48km.
In addition the government aims to extend the North-South and East-West Lines, The North-South Line will extend beyond Marina Bay station with a 1-km extension to serve the Marina Bay area and the new cruise terminal in Marina South. The East-West Line will be extended by another 14km into Tuas.
The new lines and extensions will double Singapore’s rail network from 138km to 278km by 2020. The rail network will be able to carry 3 times as many journeys, rising from today’s 1.4 million a day to 4.6 million in 2020.
Key concern—network contestability
Affects both bus and rail: While these long term estimates look wholly positive for the rail industry, there's a potential concern for SMRT itself. As part of the overall review of the public transport system, the Transport Minister announced that the government intends to introduce contestability in both the bus and the rail sector. The reasoning behind the introduction of contestability appears to be premised on the idea that the threat of competition must be real to the current incumbents. For rail, one step is to have shorter operating licenses of 10 to 15 years instead of the existing 30-year licence periods.
No details were mentioned but the LTA will likely consult the operators on their plan for introducing contestability. The introduction of contestability into the bus and rail industries announced is a sea change in transport policy. It is difficult to assess the financial impact to the operators without further details.
However it can no longer be assumed that SMRT will automatically secure future MRT concessions (although we believe that existing concessions should continue to be honoured). Similarly Comfort’s dominance of the bus industry (where service route contracts are in effect renewal on a annul basis) in Singapore will likely be eroded.
Quants view: Glamor
SMRT Corp lies in the glamour quadrant of our value-momentum map with weak relative valuation and strong momentum scores. With a strong composite momentum backed by positive earnings revisions and long-term price momentum, the stock has moved back to and is now comfortably placed in the glamour quadrant.
On the momentum front, SMRT ranks higher than its peers both in the Singapore market and the Transportation sector. However, on the valuation front, the stock lags behind its peers in the Singapore market as well as in the Transportation sector.
From a systematic macro exposure analysis, SMRT being a low beta stock would hold its own in falling markets.
MRT:
SMRT's first licence to operate the MRT System was granted by Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (LTA) in August 1987 for a period of 10 years and was later extended to 31 March 1998. The current licence to operate the MRT System for a further period of 30 years came into force on 1 April 1998. The licence fee payable is 1.0% of the gross annual fare revenue.
SMRT Trains currently operates the North South and East West lines covering a combined route length of 89.4 kilometres serving 51 stations. Fleet of 106 trains, each of which comprises six cars. Present ridership c.1.28m/day
LRT:
SMRT was been granted a LOA by LTA to operate the LRT System commencing 6 November 1999 till 31 March 2028. LTA currently owns all the operating assets and infrastructure required to operate the LRT System. Ridership c.41,400/day Circle Line (CCL): SMRT Trains has been awarded a contract by LTA to operate the Circle Line for an initial period of 10 years from the date of its opening and to extend for an additional 30 years, subject to good performance. SMRT will operate the Circle Line when it commences revenue service in 2010 (it is also likely that one stage ("Stage 3") of the Circle Line will open as early as mid-2009). The 33.3 kilometres Circle Line is an orbital circuit that links all existing MRT lines to the city centre and is expected to significantly trim travelling times.
Boon Lay Extension: expected to be completed in 2009. Prior to the opening of Circle Line, the Boon Lay Extension, currently under construction, will extend the East West line westwards from Boon Lay station to serve the communities around Jurong West and Joo Koon Circle.
BUS
FY08 turnover S$196m (24% of total)
Operating profit S$1.5m (<1% operating margin)
Public Bus:
SMRT Buses operates a fleet of 861 buses, comprising 550 12-metre buses, and 311 18-metre Bendy buses.
SMRT operate 48 trunk services, 14 feeder services, six intratown services, one express service and seven NightRider services.
Private Bus : Bus-Plus Pte Ltd, which operates private bus and bus chartering services, manages a fleet of 59 buses. Bus-Plus runs seven condominium services, peak hour and scheduled services, and charter services for special events.
Avg. daily ridership reached 757,700/day in FY2008 (+2.3%yoy)
TAXI
FY08 turnover S$75m (9% of total)
Operating profit S$0.6m (<1% operating margin)
Number2 player: Singapore’s taxi industry has been undergoing a transformation since it was liberalised. The deregulation of taxi fares in September 1998 allowed taxi companies to set their own fares. In June 2003, limits on the number of taxi companies and their fleet sizes were lifted resulting in intense competition in the industry. SMRT Taxis has grown from a fleet of 1,889 taxis prior to liberalization to 3,002 taxis as at end March 2008.
OTHERS
Advertising and rental turnover S$62m (8% of total)
Operating profit S$45.7m (74% operating margin, 26% of total profit)
Engineering turnover S$24m (3% of total)
Operating profit S$1.3m (6% operating margin)
Advertising & rental of retail space:
Despite being less than 8% of group revenues, advertising and retail space rental contributed a significant 26% to group operating profit in FY2008, due to rich operating margins of 66% and 74% respectively. These businesses saw robust growth in FY2008, largely due to renovation and a more active usage of MRT hall space and trains, and mgmt are guiding for further good growth in these operations in FY2009.
Company description
A 54.5%-owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings, SMRT Corporation listed on the Singapore Exchange on 26 July 2000. SMRT is a multi-modal transport service provider operating a mass rapid train system along a network of 97.2km of rail in Singapore, a scheduled bus service in the North Western part of Singapore and a fleet of 3,000 taxis. The group has been awarded the new Circle Line, which is expected to be operational in 2010. Bus and train fares are regulated by the Public Transport Council. To raise non-fare revenues, SMRT has been growing advertising and retail rental business in its stations.
Investment strategy
We rate SMRT Hold/Low Risk, with a target price of S$1.88, as relatively rich valuations can be justified by the recent trend of higher rail ridership growth and improving margins and ROEs. This growth should continue, although over the next two years higher staff, energy and depreciation costs could provide a slight drag as SMRT prepares to open the Circle Line by FY10. The longer-term outlook for rail ridership appears to be positive given robust underlying population growth, government initiatives to increase usage of public transport and plans to double the rail network by 2020. However, greater competition could also be introduced in the industry.
Valuation
We use an earnings-based measure, P/E, as our primary valuation measure, as the share price has historically been driven by the near-term earnings prospects of the group. Our target price of S$1.88 is based on a DDM-implied FY09E P/E of 17.8x with EPS of S$0.106, a payout ratio of 79%, DPS of S$0,083 and growth of 5%; equating to 4x P/B vs. a projected ROAE or 23%.
While admittedly a rich multiple, we think it is justified by improved growth prospects for rail and the company's commitment to a high dividend payout (recently c.78%), reflecting its strong cashflow generation and relatively stable business model. This valuation implicitly assumes that present rail concessions will be renewed at the end of their current lives.
We rate SMRT as Low Risk according to our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks the historical 260-day volatility of shares. Upside and downside risks to our price target include: [a] Rail (and bus) ridership growth, which has reached a higher trend in recent years; [b] The extent of (government regulated) fare revisions for public buses and rail; [c] the success or otherwise of the Circle Line operations from FY10; [d] sharp rise or decline in electricity and diesel prices, which is a key component of operating costs; [e] ability to improve the profitability or otherwise of taxi, bus and LRT operations, each of which is barely breakeven or small loss makers; and [f] the execution of longterm government plans as laid out in its Land Transport review.
Closing Price
1: 28 Jun 05 *3 - 1.14
2: 26 Jul 05 *4 - 1.20
3: 9 Aug 05 *3 - NA
4: 30 Aug 05 *4 - 1.03
5: 13 Sep 05 *5 - 1.06
6: 27 Sep 05 *6 - 1.04
7: 11 Oct 05 *7 - 1.04
8: 19 Oct 05 *8 - 1.03
9: 29 Nov 05 *6 - 1.07
10: 5 Jan 06 *8 - 1.08
11: 6 Feb 06 *7 - 1.13
12: 17 Feb 06 *6 - 1.13
13: 28 Feb 06 *7 - 1.10
14: 16 Mar 06 *8 - 1.12
15: 18 Apr 06 *9 - 1.13
16: 28 Jun 06 *4 - 1.08
17: 12 Jul 06 *6 - 1.15
18: 5 Aug 06 *3 - 1.09
19: 9 Aug 06 *6 - 1.08
20: 19 Aug 06 *7 - 1.08
21: 7 Sep 06 *8 - 1.09
22: 16 Sep 06 *3 - 1.10
23: 4 Oct 06 *5 - 1.10
24: 16 Oct 06 *3 - 1.11
25: 5 Dec 06 *4 - 1.13
26: 22 Jan 07 *5 - 1.37
27: 11 May 07 *8 - 1.94
28: 6 Jun 07 *9 - 1.92
29: 7 Jul 07 *6 - 1.97
30: 3 Aug 07 *3 - 1.80
31: 2 Oct 07 *8 - 1.76
32: 6 Nov 07 *4 - 1.76
33: 7 Feb 08 *6 - NA
34: 6 Mar 08 *7 - 1.78
35: 3 Apr 08 *6 - 1.82
36: 14 May 08 *8 - 1.81
37: 3 Jun 08 *7 - 1.73
Higher sustainable rail ridership — Raising estimates 13-15% for SMRT, on higher rail ridership growth, plus upside to high-margin advertising and rental income for FY09E operating margins of 13% and ROE of 23%. Government initiatives (increasing public transport usage, doubling of rail network, population increase) supports long-term growth. Risks: near-term high energy costs, and longer term whether the government introduces more competition in the rail space.
Target price S$1.88 — We have afforded SMRT a higher fair-value PER multiple of 17.8x (from 16x), equivalent to a P/BV of 4x, recognizing the rail story's structural growth drivers, stable and highly cash generative business, with recent dividend payouts of 78% of earnings (for a 5% dividend yield), plus the potential long-term growth upside for rail.
Circle Line — Unlike previous new lines, we are optimistic that full operation from 2010 of the Circle Line can be earnings accretive almost from the start due to higher ridership demand and scale benefits from the MRT network.
Long-term rail growth, but sector to be contestable — Land transport master plan prepares for population growth, encourages public transport usage, a doubling of the rail network. New lines Thomson and Eastern Region will be built, while existing North-South and East-West will be extended. The new lines could be opened to more competition.
Expected share price return 2.7%
Expected dividend yield 4.5%
Expected total return 7.3%
Market Cap S$2,773M
Stronger rail ridership trend: +13 to +15% EPS revisions
Target raised 27%: We upgrade SMRT to a Hold, with a new target of S$1.88 (from S$1.48). We raise earnings 13%-15% to reflect: [a] rail revenues raised c.6.5% to reflect a stronger growth trend in rail ridership, [b] c.15% higher revenues from advertising and rental business. We have raised ROE forecast to 23% on an improved operating margin assumption of 23% (from 21%). We no longer use a market multiple to set our target price for SMRT because we expect high-trend sustainable rail ridership growth to drive higher ROEs.
Higher target PE: We accord SMRT a higher PE of 17.8x, equivalent to a P/B of 4x, recognizing the rail story's structural growth drivers, namely estimated 2.5% pa population growth, govt. initiatives to increase use of public transport, and plans to more than double the length of the rail network by 2020. SMRT remains a highly cash generative business; it earns more than enough cashflow to meet annual capex needs and maintain near zero net balance sheet gearing, yet having paid out c.78% of its annual profits over the last few years.
Risks: Key risk to this outlook is rising cost pressures from [1] higher depreciation as SMRT embarks on bus acquisition and train upgrades, [2] rising diesel and electricity costs. The latter may threaten the current barely breakeven status of SMRT's bus, taxi and LRT franchises.
Circle Line: We view the Circle line (CCL), for which one stage should be ready in mid-CY09 (stepping up to full service over CY10), may be marginally profitable from the start given that it reaches a new pool of passengers in relatively highly populated areas, who currently may depend on bus, taxi or private car, and it will benefit from scale economies of the existing MRT lines.
Rail — MRT ridership moving to a higher growth trend
Rail remains SMRT's primary business driver, at 56% of group revenue in FY08 (to March 2008) and (with near 30% operating margins) 72% of operating profit. The key strength of SMRT's FY08 result was the better than trend MRT ridership growth of +7.6%yoy. This represents a step-up in trend growth from FY07 of +5.1% and just +2.8% for FY06 and FY05.
March 2008 quarter spurt: Quarterly data may point to the +11.2%yoy growth in the Mar 2008 qtr as an unusual growth spurt. Some of this was arguably due to "one-off" factors, notably Dec 2007's sharp hike in taxi fares, which not unexpectedly hurt taxi usage in the following months and led to switching to public transport. Although taxi usage has recovered we suspect that marginal users have permanently switched to public transport. The rising cost of petrol and further govt. moves to raise traffic congestion taxes (adding more ERP gantries and raising ERP rates) help to further explain why in Apr-May 2008 ridership continues to remain well above past trend growth rates.
Cyclical improvement in ridership: Beyond the most recent quarter, we would argue that there has been a cyclical uptrend in rail and other public transport usage. We can show this by looking at recent labour force growth trends.
Labour statistics over the past 2 years showed record numbers of job creation, most recently in 2007 with 235,000 new jobs (2006: 176,000, 2005: 113,000).
While a significant proportion of the labour force addition has been foreign workers, these are anecdotally at much lower income brackets than high salaried "expats" and hence are more likely to use rail and buses as their main mode of transport. Preliminary data for the Mar 2008 quarter was also another record quarter, adding 68,400 new jobs.
Drive to improve public transport usage; long-term population growth:
Looking forward, the government has set goals of increasing the share of public transport usage in peak hours and discouraging private car usage through further road congestion taxes (raising ERP rates, installing more ERP gantries and reducing the number of car park spaces in the central areas), as well as improving the efficiency and quality of service of the public transport system.
The govt. is also preparing for a presumed strong trend in population growth, as it plans to more than double the length of the rail network by 2020. We cover this in more detail in the Land Transport review section of this note.
Operational leverage: perhaps the most powerful part of this growth story has been the significant operating leverage that the rail business has enjoyed. In FY08, overall group rail revenues of S$445m represented a 5-yr CAGR of +2.6% over FY03. Rail operating profit by contrast surged fromS$46m in FY03 to S$129m in FY08, a 5-yr CAGR of 23%. One of the key reasons was that the rail system capacity had been underutilized, and the MRT was able to meet this ridership growth with minimal additional operating cost or capital expenditure.
As such rail operating margins rose from 11.7% in FY03 to 28.9% in FY08.
Even in the Mar 2008 quarter, SMRT continued to meet increased readership demand by increasing services frequency from the existing fleet of 106 trains that has remained unchanged for the past several years. In February 2008 an additional 87 weekly services were added to the morning peak period at a minimal additional annual cost of S$1m. In May 2008 a further 700 weekly train trips were added (at an approximate annual cost of S$5m) to capture higher demand during lunchtimes, weekends and off-peak periods. These incremental services within the existing capacity will further enhance operating margins. SMRT has a broad rule of thumb, that where the number of passenger per train trip rises above a range of 1,000-1,200 on a sustained basis then it will add further a further train trip. Mgmt. estimate that the MRT is probably running near full capacity in the morning peak period (approx. 7.30am – 8.45am), where the gap between train trips is just 2.5 minutes, but for other periods, including the evening peak (approx. 6pm-8pm), the gap between trips still remains above 2.5 minutes. Lunch waiting time post the new services has fallen to 3.5 minutes, while non-peak hours still average near 7minutes.
Projecting ridership and earnings for the Circle Line
When the Circle Line commences full operations during CY10, it will mark a significant increase in the length of SMRT's overall rail network. The current MRT network, comprising the North-South (in red) and East-West (green) lines, covers a combined route length of 89.4km and 51 stations, with a fleet of 106 six-car trains. The 33.3km, 29 station Circle Line is an orbital line linking existing MRT stations, which should help to alleviate some of the present peak time commuter crunch that occurs at the city centre MRT stations (Raffles Place and City Hall). A short extension of the East-West line from Boon Lay will also become operational during CY09.
Predicting ridership trends: This is largely guesswork at this stage but we are quite positive, based on the following observations:
Switching from other transport modes: While there may be some cannibalization of ridership from existing lines, we believe the net impact will be a ridership increase since the Circle Line is tapping new geographies that previously relied on bus, taxi or private car at the point of departure.
More central geography:
The experience of the North East line start-up in June 2003 operated by Comfort Delgro showed an immediate ridership population of about 190,000/day, with a sharp 10-15% annual increase thereafter. Arguably Circle Line could start at a higher ridership level than the NEL given the more central area it serves, plus Singapore has a larger population and the economy is in better shape than the conditions of 2003.
Lower breakeven:
Despite strong ridership pick-up, the NEL only broke even operating profit wise in 2006 once ridership averaged 260,000/day (May 2008 ridership is now at 340,000/day). We argue that due to scale and network benefits, CCL could actually reach breakeven at lower ridership levels, suggesting that even in the first full year of operation, the CCL could actually prove to be marginally profitable.
Ridership potential: A "mature" network such as the MRT had a FY2008 average daily ridership of 1.283m/day over its 89.4km network, or about 14,350 per km. On that simple math, a mature ridership for the 33.3km Circle Line in FY2008 terms could have been 478,000/day Earnings contribution: Based on current plans the so called "Stage 3" of the Circe Line (this segment connects with Bishan station on the North-South Line and comprises 5 stations on an approximate 6km stretch of line) should commence operations in mid-2009. Thereafter we expect stages 1,2,4 and 5 of the CCL to be launched through 2010. Assuming full service is achieved by Sept 2010 SMRT's FY2011 (to March 2011) financial year will have approximately half a year of full CCL operations and FY2012 the first fully financial year of service. In its first few years of operation the NEL made losses of S$33m, S$17m and S$6m, before breaking even in 2006. Conservatively, we have assumed annualized average daily ridership for the CCL to start at 200,000 in FY011, and we have assumed zero profit contribution (nor have we assumed any losses) for now.
LRT, bus and taxis likely to be barely breakeven businesses SMRT's other transport operations, the Bukit Panjang LRT, bus and taxis, simply lack the business scale of the main MRT rail network, and (for bus and LRT) serve mainly less well-populated areas of Singapore. As such these have at best remained marginal contributors to overall operating profit (or even small loss-makers), and we expect much of the same for our forecast period.
LRT: In FY08 operating losses had fallen for LRT to less than S$0.4m. Though less dramatic than for the MRT, average daily ridership for the Bukit Panjang LRT network grew 5.4%yoy to 41,400 in FY08, and +7.2%yoy for the Mar2008 quarter. Annual revenues rose 6.6%yoy to S$8.6m, having the operating loss to S$0.4m (FY07 S$1m loss). Mgt guidance suggests a ridership level of about 50,000 would take the operation to breakeven, which still appears to be a couple of years away.
Bus: The fall in FY08 bus profits S$1.5m (FY07: S$5.6m) was disappointing but not unexpected. SMRT's fleet of 800 buses saw average daily ridership of 757,700 in FY08, +2.3%yoy. Although this translated to revenue growth of +2.9%yoy to S$195.9m, the sharp drop in operating profit to S$1.5m from S$5.6m was largely due to the sharp increase in diesel fuel costs, particularly in the last six months. Careful mgmt of costs will be necessary to prevent the bus franchise falling into losses near term (4QFY08 bus operating profit was just S$164,000) as diesel fuel prices continued to rise since Mar 2008.
Taxi: The taxi franchise turned around from a meaningful S$5m loss in FY07 to a mall profit in FY08. Notwithstanding the impact of the Dec 2007 taxi fare hike, SMRT's fleet of 3,002 taxis enjoyed +20.4%yoy growth in taxis hired out of 2,719 (90.5% hired out rate) and a 10.8% rise in revenue to S$75.4m, translating into a small operating profit of S$0.6m. SMRT's taxi model is a rentals model (daily rentals range from S$65/day for a Nissan and S$78/day for a Toyota taxi to up to S$120/day for a Mercedes taxi). While SMRT provides diesel to it taxi drivers at cost (which is below retail price plus it buys in bulk) it does not provide a direct fuel subsidy.
Further revenue opportunities from advertising and rental
Despite being less than 8% of group revenues, advertising and retail space rental contributed a significant 25% to group operating profit in FY08, due to rich operating margins of 66% and 74% respectively. These businesses saw robust growth in FY2008, largely due to renovation and a more active usage of MRT hall space and trains, and mgmt are seeking further growth in FY09, given increased lettable space (post station refurbishments), and seeking new advertising space and media (such as the recently launched "Tunnel TV".
Advertising:
Revenues reached S$19.8m (+16.7%yoy) in FY08 (although Mar 2008 quarter revenues fell 3%yoy) from increased advertising on all modes of transport. Operating profit of S$13.1m was up 19%yoy.
Retail rental:
FY08 revenues grew 21.8%yoy to S$42m and operating profit +22.7%yoy to S$30.9m in line with a 20.3%yoy increase in total lettable space to 27,862 sq.m. This growth was due to the refurbishment of 26 MRT stations since FY05, with 4 more completed in the Mar 2008 quarter. Mgmt is guiding that rental revenue could increase by more than S$10m in FY09, but we have continued to conservatively assume a lower growth rate.
Engineering and other operations:
This segment made an operating profit of S$1.3m (down 65%yoy) on revenues of S$23.5m (+13%yoy). The sharp fall was likely due to diesel sales, which made an operating loss due to rising diesel prices. There were also higher project expenses, as SMRT embarked on its first overseas project, an operating and maintenance project to run the Palm Jumeirah Monorail project in Dubai. This will be a "cost-plus" contract fro
SMRT (so no participation in revenue upside) which is still in the consultancy phase. The monorail is expected to be fully operational from 1 April 2009, carrying up to 2,400 passengers per hour in four separate driverless trains of 3 cars per train.
Managing costs will be a key concern
We see 3 areas of cost growth that could hurt operating margins and overall business performance.
Electricity:
Electricity accounted for 47% of total energy-related cost in FY08.
SMRT signed a new 6-month contact for the Apr-Sep 2008 period at a 15% increase in rates with Senoko power. Electricity cost is expected to rise given record oil prices and we will have to monitor what further price increases will occur in the second half of the financial year.
Diesel:
Diesel prices mainly directly affect SMRT's bus division profits, as for taxis SMRT buys and sells on the diesel to its drivers at cost. Bus was barely break-even in the March quarter (S$0.164m) and since then average diesel prices have risen further.
Depreciation and capex:
SMRT has for several years maintained annual capex of just over S$100m in effect being maintenance capex. This has begun to move up recently, as it began from FY07 the mid-life upgrade of 66 of its 106 MRT trains (most of which date back to 1987), giving in effect a complete refurbishment of the train aside the engine and bogeys. This work will cost a total of S$143m and should be completed by end CY2008.
SMRT is also adding its fleet of 861 buses through the purchase of 67 new buses, with an estimated capex of S$20-30m. This will go towards meeting new Quality of service (QoS) standard introduced last year. The new buses, which include wheelchair facilities, will be delivered by 1QFY2009. about 179 of the existing bus fleet have undergone a mid-life upgrade, wit a plan to have upgraded 85% of the total fleet over the next 8 years.
Staff:
Staff costs have been growing at an underlying rate of 3%-4% annually.
SMRT's main headcount increase will be in the region of 100 in preparation of the Circle Line stage 3 opening.
Land Transport review — positives and negatives
Key positive— sustained higher rail ridership growth
Population growth: The higher trend rail ridership, one of the main reasons for our earnings upgrade of SMRT, we believe is here to stay for the long term. The key underpinning of this is growth in the Singapore population, which we estimate could grow over 25% from the present 4.6m to about 5.8m in approximately 13 years (+1.8%CAGR). While no specific population targets have been officially announced by the government, we infer this figure from the forecast 327,200 island wide residential units to be added in the next 10-15 years under the URA 2008 Master Plan. At an average of 3.7 persons per household (per the year 2000 Census) this translates into a population addition of just over 1.2m. Extending this argument further, this could see the Singapore labour force growing from 2.75m to over 3.42m (assuming a participation rate of 59%).
Increasing use of public transport: An explicit goal of the review is to increase
use of public transport during peak hours. In 2007 the share of public transport usage during was 63%, and it is targeted that this is increased to 70% by 2020. Simple math dictates that on this basis, public transport ridership could grow at a faster pace than the total population/labour force figure of about 2.5% per annum. This growth is of course also supported by the planned increase in the rail network, beyond the opening of the Circle Line.
Doubling the length of the rail network:
It is possible that these estimates will prove too conservative. The government will expand the rail network by building 2 new rail lines - the Thomson Line and Eastern Region Line. The Thomson line will travel from MarinA bay northwards to Ang Mo Kio and onward to Woodlands via Sin Ming, Kebun Baru, Thomson and Kim Seng.
From Marina Bay, the Thomson line will connect with another new MRT line, the Eastern Region Line. (ER). The ER line will serve Tanjong Rhu, Marine Parade, Siglap, Bedok South and Upper East Coast, and connect to Changi in the east. These 2 new lines will expand the network by 48km.
In addition the government aims to extend the North-South and East-West Lines, The North-South Line will extend beyond Marina Bay station with a 1-km extension to serve the Marina Bay area and the new cruise terminal in Marina South. The East-West Line will be extended by another 14km into Tuas.
The new lines and extensions will double Singapore’s rail network from 138km to 278km by 2020. The rail network will be able to carry 3 times as many journeys, rising from today’s 1.4 million a day to 4.6 million in 2020.
Key concern—network contestability
Affects both bus and rail: While these long term estimates look wholly positive for the rail industry, there's a potential concern for SMRT itself. As part of the overall review of the public transport system, the Transport Minister announced that the government intends to introduce contestability in both the bus and the rail sector. The reasoning behind the introduction of contestability appears to be premised on the idea that the threat of competition must be real to the current incumbents. For rail, one step is to have shorter operating licenses of 10 to 15 years instead of the existing 30-year licence periods.
No details were mentioned but the LTA will likely consult the operators on their plan for introducing contestability. The introduction of contestability into the bus and rail industries announced is a sea change in transport policy. It is difficult to assess the financial impact to the operators without further details.
However it can no longer be assumed that SMRT will automatically secure future MRT concessions (although we believe that existing concessions should continue to be honoured). Similarly Comfort’s dominance of the bus industry (where service route contracts are in effect renewal on a annul basis) in Singapore will likely be eroded.
Quants view: Glamor
SMRT Corp lies in the glamour quadrant of our value-momentum map with weak relative valuation and strong momentum scores. With a strong composite momentum backed by positive earnings revisions and long-term price momentum, the stock has moved back to and is now comfortably placed in the glamour quadrant.
On the momentum front, SMRT ranks higher than its peers both in the Singapore market and the Transportation sector. However, on the valuation front, the stock lags behind its peers in the Singapore market as well as in the Transportation sector.
From a systematic macro exposure analysis, SMRT being a low beta stock would hold its own in falling markets.
MRT:
SMRT's first licence to operate the MRT System was granted by Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (LTA) in August 1987 for a period of 10 years and was later extended to 31 March 1998. The current licence to operate the MRT System for a further period of 30 years came into force on 1 April 1998. The licence fee payable is 1.0% of the gross annual fare revenue.
SMRT Trains currently operates the North South and East West lines covering a combined route length of 89.4 kilometres serving 51 stations. Fleet of 106 trains, each of which comprises six cars. Present ridership c.1.28m/day
LRT:
SMRT was been granted a LOA by LTA to operate the LRT System commencing 6 November 1999 till 31 March 2028. LTA currently owns all the operating assets and infrastructure required to operate the LRT System. Ridership c.41,400/day Circle Line (CCL): SMRT Trains has been awarded a contract by LTA to operate the Circle Line for an initial period of 10 years from the date of its opening and to extend for an additional 30 years, subject to good performance. SMRT will operate the Circle Line when it commences revenue service in 2010 (it is also likely that one stage ("Stage 3") of the Circle Line will open as early as mid-2009). The 33.3 kilometres Circle Line is an orbital circuit that links all existing MRT lines to the city centre and is expected to significantly trim travelling times.
Boon Lay Extension: expected to be completed in 2009. Prior to the opening of Circle Line, the Boon Lay Extension, currently under construction, will extend the East West line westwards from Boon Lay station to serve the communities around Jurong West and Joo Koon Circle.
BUS
FY08 turnover S$196m (24% of total)
Operating profit S$1.5m (<1% operating margin)
Public Bus:
SMRT Buses operates a fleet of 861 buses, comprising 550 12-metre buses, and 311 18-metre Bendy buses.
SMRT operate 48 trunk services, 14 feeder services, six intratown services, one express service and seven NightRider services.
Private Bus : Bus-Plus Pte Ltd, which operates private bus and bus chartering services, manages a fleet of 59 buses. Bus-Plus runs seven condominium services, peak hour and scheduled services, and charter services for special events.
Avg. daily ridership reached 757,700/day in FY2008 (+2.3%yoy)
TAXI
FY08 turnover S$75m (9% of total)
Operating profit S$0.6m (<1% operating margin)
Number2 player: Singapore’s taxi industry has been undergoing a transformation since it was liberalised. The deregulation of taxi fares in September 1998 allowed taxi companies to set their own fares. In June 2003, limits on the number of taxi companies and their fleet sizes were lifted resulting in intense competition in the industry. SMRT Taxis has grown from a fleet of 1,889 taxis prior to liberalization to 3,002 taxis as at end March 2008.
OTHERS
Advertising and rental turnover S$62m (8% of total)
Operating profit S$45.7m (74% operating margin, 26% of total profit)
Engineering turnover S$24m (3% of total)
Operating profit S$1.3m (6% operating margin)
Advertising & rental of retail space:
Despite being less than 8% of group revenues, advertising and retail space rental contributed a significant 26% to group operating profit in FY2008, due to rich operating margins of 66% and 74% respectively. These businesses saw robust growth in FY2008, largely due to renovation and a more active usage of MRT hall space and trains, and mgmt are guiding for further good growth in these operations in FY2009.
Company description
A 54.5%-owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings, SMRT Corporation listed on the Singapore Exchange on 26 July 2000. SMRT is a multi-modal transport service provider operating a mass rapid train system along a network of 97.2km of rail in Singapore, a scheduled bus service in the North Western part of Singapore and a fleet of 3,000 taxis. The group has been awarded the new Circle Line, which is expected to be operational in 2010. Bus and train fares are regulated by the Public Transport Council. To raise non-fare revenues, SMRT has been growing advertising and retail rental business in its stations.
Investment strategy
We rate SMRT Hold/Low Risk, with a target price of S$1.88, as relatively rich valuations can be justified by the recent trend of higher rail ridership growth and improving margins and ROEs. This growth should continue, although over the next two years higher staff, energy and depreciation costs could provide a slight drag as SMRT prepares to open the Circle Line by FY10. The longer-term outlook for rail ridership appears to be positive given robust underlying population growth, government initiatives to increase usage of public transport and plans to double the rail network by 2020. However, greater competition could also be introduced in the industry.
Valuation
We use an earnings-based measure, P/E, as our primary valuation measure, as the share price has historically been driven by the near-term earnings prospects of the group. Our target price of S$1.88 is based on a DDM-implied FY09E P/E of 17.8x with EPS of S$0.106, a payout ratio of 79%, DPS of S$0,083 and growth of 5%; equating to 4x P/B vs. a projected ROAE or 23%.
While admittedly a rich multiple, we think it is justified by improved growth prospects for rail and the company's commitment to a high dividend payout (recently c.78%), reflecting its strong cashflow generation and relatively stable business model. This valuation implicitly assumes that present rail concessions will be renewed at the end of their current lives.
We rate SMRT as Low Risk according to our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks the historical 260-day volatility of shares. Upside and downside risks to our price target include: [a] Rail (and bus) ridership growth, which has reached a higher trend in recent years; [b] The extent of (government regulated) fare revisions for public buses and rail; [c] the success or otherwise of the Circle Line operations from FY10; [d] sharp rise or decline in electricity and diesel prices, which is a key component of operating costs; [e] ability to improve the profitability or otherwise of taxi, bus and LRT operations, each of which is barely breakeven or small loss makers; and [f] the execution of longterm government plans as laid out in its Land Transport review.
Closing Price
1: 28 Jun 05 *3 - 1.14
2: 26 Jul 05 *4 - 1.20
3: 9 Aug 05 *3 - NA
4: 30 Aug 05 *4 - 1.03
5: 13 Sep 05 *5 - 1.06
6: 27 Sep 05 *6 - 1.04
7: 11 Oct 05 *7 - 1.04
8: 19 Oct 05 *8 - 1.03
9: 29 Nov 05 *6 - 1.07
10: 5 Jan 06 *8 - 1.08
11: 6 Feb 06 *7 - 1.13
12: 17 Feb 06 *6 - 1.13
13: 28 Feb 06 *7 - 1.10
14: 16 Mar 06 *8 - 1.12
15: 18 Apr 06 *9 - 1.13
16: 28 Jun 06 *4 - 1.08
17: 12 Jul 06 *6 - 1.15
18: 5 Aug 06 *3 - 1.09
19: 9 Aug 06 *6 - 1.08
20: 19 Aug 06 *7 - 1.08
21: 7 Sep 06 *8 - 1.09
22: 16 Sep 06 *3 - 1.10
23: 4 Oct 06 *5 - 1.10
24: 16 Oct 06 *3 - 1.11
25: 5 Dec 06 *4 - 1.13
26: 22 Jan 07 *5 - 1.37
27: 11 May 07 *8 - 1.94
28: 6 Jun 07 *9 - 1.92
29: 7 Jul 07 *6 - 1.97
30: 3 Aug 07 *3 - 1.80
31: 2 Oct 07 *8 - 1.76
32: 6 Nov 07 *4 - 1.76
33: 7 Feb 08 *6 - NA
34: 6 Mar 08 *7 - 1.78
35: 3 Apr 08 *6 - 1.82
36: 14 May 08 *8 - 1.81
37: 3 Jun 08 *7 - 1.73
Monday, June 23, 2008
心得片片录之一
股票投资，既不纯是科学，也不纯是艺术，乃是科学与艺术的混合体，也可以说是介乎科学与艺术之间。
若股票投资是科学的，那么企业盈利增加10仙，股价也上升10仙。但是，在股市中，盈利上升，股价可以跌10仙，也可以上20仙。
若股票投资是艺术的，则可以不必理会事实和数据，只凭想像，天马行空，投资就可以成功，如果你这样做的话，后果必然是饮恨海。
股票研究涵盖两个部份：
第一个部份：理论的探讨。从股票研究鼻祖本查明·格拉罕到现在，短短的几十年，有关投资理论的书，已汗牛充栋，即使白首穷经，也只能涉猎一小部份而已，故不喜欢读书的人，不可以研究股票，尤其是不可以研究理论。
第二个部份：上市公司研究，以时间为经，需研究个别公司的发展史，以业务为纬，需研究公司的结构、行业特征、财政演变、企管领导人的背景与作风、企业的经营理念等，错综复杂，绝不是以玩票性质视之，以业余的态度对待，可以登堂入室的。
上市公司的业务几乎涵盖了国家经济的所有领域，从贸易、工业、原产、服务、建筑、科技、金融到基本设施，无所不包，除非你对每个领域的特征经营方式以及其优劣点，有相当深入的了解，否则，对有关行业的资料，包括分析文章，宏观和微观的报导，实难以有深入的体验。
股票研究易学难精
故股票研究，易学难精。
股票投资非常个人化的，适合于甲的理论，未必适用于乙。
如果有一种理论，可以应用于所有人的话，那么，大家只要照搬巴菲特的投资理念去做，人人都可以成为巴菲特第二了。
事实是：研究巴菲特的书，少说也有一百几十种，然而世界上并没有出现第二个巴菲特。
如果你研究西方最成功投资家的历史的话，你会发现每一个人的作风都不同，投资手法各异，然而他们殊途同归，都有卓越的成就。
故成功投资人，可以借镜，但要投资成功，还是要发展自己的一套策略。
股票研究的进程，其实跟教育的进程，是一样的。
中小学是基础教育，无所不读，不管实用不实用都要读。以求其博。
不博则无以扩大视野，成为井底之蛙。
故不博则陋。
大学专攻一个领域，范围缩小了，如文科生不必读数学。
但还是属於较为深入的普通教育，旨在求其精。
不精则流於肤浅。
到了硕士、博士，才有资格说“通”，对某个科目，上下纵横皆如意，从心所欲，不逾矩，是为“通”。
不通则滞。
股票研究由博到精，由精到通，非长期浸淫，无以为功。
博、精、通，需循序渐进，不能速成。
融汇贯通，必须经过博和精的“融会”阶段，才会“贯通”，就是这个道理。
若股票投资是科学的，那么企业盈利增加10仙，股价也上升10仙。但是，在股市中，盈利上升，股价可以跌10仙，也可以上20仙。
若股票投资是艺术的，则可以不必理会事实和数据，只凭想像，天马行空，投资就可以成功，如果你这样做的话，后果必然是饮恨海。
股票研究涵盖两个部份：
第一个部份：理论的探讨。从股票研究鼻祖本查明·格拉罕到现在，短短的几十年，有关投资理论的书，已汗牛充栋，即使白首穷经，也只能涉猎一小部份而已，故不喜欢读书的人，不可以研究股票，尤其是不可以研究理论。
第二个部份：上市公司研究，以时间为经，需研究个别公司的发展史，以业务为纬，需研究公司的结构、行业特征、财政演变、企管领导人的背景与作风、企业的经营理念等，错综复杂，绝不是以玩票性质视之，以业余的态度对待，可以登堂入室的。
上市公司的业务几乎涵盖了国家经济的所有领域，从贸易、工业、原产、服务、建筑、科技、金融到基本设施，无所不包，除非你对每个领域的特征经营方式以及其优劣点，有相当深入的了解，否则，对有关行业的资料，包括分析文章，宏观和微观的报导，实难以有深入的体验。
股票研究易学难精
故股票研究，易学难精。
股票投资非常个人化的，适合于甲的理论，未必适用于乙。
如果有一种理论，可以应用于所有人的话，那么，大家只要照搬巴菲特的投资理念去做，人人都可以成为巴菲特第二了。
事实是：研究巴菲特的书，少说也有一百几十种，然而世界上并没有出现第二个巴菲特。
如果你研究西方最成功投资家的历史的话，你会发现每一个人的作风都不同，投资手法各异，然而他们殊途同归，都有卓越的成就。
故成功投资人，可以借镜，但要投资成功，还是要发展自己的一套策略。
股票研究的进程，其实跟教育的进程，是一样的。
中小学是基础教育，无所不读，不管实用不实用都要读。以求其博。
不博则无以扩大视野，成为井底之蛙。
故不博则陋。
大学专攻一个领域，范围缩小了，如文科生不必读数学。
但还是属於较为深入的普通教育，旨在求其精。
不精则流於肤浅。
到了硕士、博士，才有资格说“通”，对某个科目，上下纵横皆如意，从心所欲，不逾矩，是为“通”。
不通则滞。
股票研究由博到精，由精到通，非长期浸淫，无以为功。
博、精、通，需循序渐进，不能速成。
融汇贯通，必须经过博和精的“融会”阶段，才会“贯通”，就是这个道理。
RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?
According to the UK daily newspaper Telegraph, a research team from Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is warning investors to get ready for a “full fledged crash in global stocks and credit markets over the next three months," noting inflation will paralyze major central banks.
They forecast a 300-point drop in the S&P by September to around 1050, with contagion spreading across global stock markets, and for the iTRAXX index (high grade corporate bonds) to widen to 130/150, the “Crossover index” (low grade corporate bonds) to widen to 650/700 on renewed investor panic. Their reasoning is that the temporary momentum from America’s fiscal boost may fizzle out by July on delayed impact from the oil spike.
Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, said, “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared.”
He said, “The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets.” He also said in order for global inflation to be lower, we may need to see slower global growth.
Maybe RBS is short on S&P, and they want investors to go short as well, while screaming “The sky is falling”? That’s right, it’s a bit insane for a financial institution to make such sensational doomsday remarks. However coming from the guy who was known for his warnings last year about the credit crisis which proved to be accurate, it might be worth listening to what he’s saying.
And if RBS is warning investors about this market crash, which would amount to one of the worst bear markets in the last 100 years, does it want normal retail stock investors to sell their portfolios and realize whatever losses they have sustained over the past year, thus pushing stocks even lower (if RBS is short, it would make sense!)? Given the volatile market conditions over the past few months, investors will have experienced a huge blow and cutting their losses now might be too little, too late.
Forex Trading
With no major economic releases or speeches on tap today, currencies have been moving sideways. The US dollar is up against the Euro, Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen. The British pound is a notable loser, falling for the second day against the dollar as minutes from the Bank of England June 5 policy meeting showed members decided an interest-rate hike wasn’t “urgently” needed to keep inflation under control. The minutes also revealed that David Blanchflower was the only policy member who wanted a rate change, voting for a cut to from 5% to 4.75%. Blanchflower might already have changed his mind about that after yesterday’s release of UK inflation data which showed inflation up 3.3%.
GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.9475 today, but traded above yesterday’s low. It has since moved back up above 1.9550. Shorting interest may crowd around 1.9600 and 1.9630. The pound is also weaker versus the Euro, trading near the lowest level in a week. If the BOE resists lifting interest rates higher to keep inflation expectations down, we could see more downside risks to the Pound.
Yesterday, BOE’s King wrote a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, saying that the “path of bank rate that will be necessary to meet the 2 percent target is uncertain."
They forecast a 300-point drop in the S&P by September to around 1050, with contagion spreading across global stock markets, and for the iTRAXX index (high grade corporate bonds) to widen to 130/150, the “Crossover index” (low grade corporate bonds) to widen to 650/700 on renewed investor panic. Their reasoning is that the temporary momentum from America’s fiscal boost may fizzle out by July on delayed impact from the oil spike.
Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, said, “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared.”
He said, “The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets.” He also said in order for global inflation to be lower, we may need to see slower global growth.
Maybe RBS is short on S&P, and they want investors to go short as well, while screaming “The sky is falling”? That’s right, it’s a bit insane for a financial institution to make such sensational doomsday remarks. However coming from the guy who was known for his warnings last year about the credit crisis which proved to be accurate, it might be worth listening to what he’s saying.
And if RBS is warning investors about this market crash, which would amount to one of the worst bear markets in the last 100 years, does it want normal retail stock investors to sell their portfolios and realize whatever losses they have sustained over the past year, thus pushing stocks even lower (if RBS is short, it would make sense!)? Given the volatile market conditions over the past few months, investors will have experienced a huge blow and cutting their losses now might be too little, too late.
Forex Trading
With no major economic releases or speeches on tap today, currencies have been moving sideways. The US dollar is up against the Euro, Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen. The British pound is a notable loser, falling for the second day against the dollar as minutes from the Bank of England June 5 policy meeting showed members decided an interest-rate hike wasn’t “urgently” needed to keep inflation under control. The minutes also revealed that David Blanchflower was the only policy member who wanted a rate change, voting for a cut to from 5% to 4.75%. Blanchflower might already have changed his mind about that after yesterday’s release of UK inflation data which showed inflation up 3.3%.
GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.9475 today, but traded above yesterday’s low. It has since moved back up above 1.9550. Shorting interest may crowd around 1.9600 and 1.9630. The pound is also weaker versus the Euro, trading near the lowest level in a week. If the BOE resists lifting interest rates higher to keep inflation expectations down, we could see more downside risks to the Pound.
Yesterday, BOE’s King wrote a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, saying that the “path of bank rate that will be necessary to meet the 2 percent target is uncertain."
Sunday, June 22, 2008
永远不要买股票
一个只盯着股票的投资者，必定是一个失败的投资者。因为就股票本身而言，它仅仅是一堆毫无价值的废纸。真正有价值的东西是这些股票所代表的公司所有权。因此，成功投资者购买的不是股票，而是股票背后的公司。
这种区别在一些人看来似乎很微妙，或毫无疑义。但作为一个投资者，这个区别必须牢记于心。总的来说，公司股票真正的价值取决于公司的财务表现。对于市场上的股价来回波动，那只是一种噪音。如果你想成为一个顶级投资者，你需要学会不受这些噪音影响，或利用这些噪音。
购买便宜的公司
没错，你是可以从震荡的股市中获利，但必须掌握两种关键技能：
（1） 识破噪音，客观看待；
（2） 耐心等待噪音结束。
当你同时拥有了这两个技能，你就掌握了低买高卖的关键。投资成功与否，取决于你区分公司和股票之间不同表现的能力。你买入的价格比公司真正的价值越低，你赚的就越多。另一方面，你卖出时价格比公司真正价值越高，你赚得也越多。
这种对公司股价和公司价值的比较是价值型投资策略打败市场的关键，如同沃伦.巴菲特挑选出可口可乐公司一样。
合理的价格
这儿有个关键性的问题：到底为公司的价值支付多少才是一笔好买卖呢？这得看具体公司及它们的盈利能力而定。大体上来说，一个公司产生的现金越多，它的价值就越大。但你要考虑的不仅仅是现金的数量，你还要考虑产生这些现金的时间问题。也就是说，你是想今天就拿到100块呢？还是希望从现在起的10年内得到1000块呢？
为了兼顾这两个问题，价值型投资者们发明了DCF（Discounted Cash Flow，贴现现金流）来计算人们为了获得未来的现金流现在所愿付出的价钱。简而言之，DCF就是将未来现金流转换成现值。这实际上没有听起来的那么复杂，只要你愿意付出时间和精力。
不为浮躁所动
那么，既然这个方法如此简单，为什么并非每个人都能判定合理的买卖价格，成为成功投资者呢?这是因为，成功的投资者不仅仅要相信数据，还必须克服股市里的浮躁情绪。
价值型投资者善于把股市的非理性转化为自己投资的优势。回想90年代末期，网络风靡一时，而传统行业股票股却被认为是垃圾股。如果那时你能排除那些市场上的噪音，买进传统行业股票，比如：Simon Property Group、 Macerich，你就可以在短期内获得丰厚的收益。
同样回首2003年3月，当时麦当劳的价格仅是现在的三分之一。你想过你会在四年不到的时间里赚到三倍的钱吗？在一个“低成长”的快餐行业，一个所谓有效率的市场上，这简直不可思议。
放眼未来
当然，过去的已经过去，你不可能用现在的钱购买昨天的价值。这也是为什么你不需要关心现在价格已经涨起来的股票，而需要关注这只股票背后公司是如何做到这点的。想一想那些曾经表现不好的公司失误在哪里，公司管理层如何改变这些糟糕的状况，这样，我们就可以在将来类似的情况中找到投资机会，获得收益。下一个麦当劳随时会出现，就是那些不被大众喜欢和欣赏，但正在转型复苏的公司。
这种区别在一些人看来似乎很微妙，或毫无疑义。但作为一个投资者，这个区别必须牢记于心。总的来说，公司股票真正的价值取决于公司的财务表现。对于市场上的股价来回波动，那只是一种噪音。如果你想成为一个顶级投资者，你需要学会不受这些噪音影响，或利用这些噪音。
购买便宜的公司
没错，你是可以从震荡的股市中获利，但必须掌握两种关键技能：
（1） 识破噪音，客观看待；
（2） 耐心等待噪音结束。
当你同时拥有了这两个技能，你就掌握了低买高卖的关键。投资成功与否，取决于你区分公司和股票之间不同表现的能力。你买入的价格比公司真正的价值越低，你赚的就越多。另一方面，你卖出时价格比公司真正价值越高，你赚得也越多。
这种对公司股价和公司价值的比较是价值型投资策略打败市场的关键，如同沃伦.巴菲特挑选出可口可乐公司一样。
合理的价格
这儿有个关键性的问题：到底为公司的价值支付多少才是一笔好买卖呢？这得看具体公司及它们的盈利能力而定。大体上来说，一个公司产生的现金越多，它的价值就越大。但你要考虑的不仅仅是现金的数量，你还要考虑产生这些现金的时间问题。也就是说，你是想今天就拿到100块呢？还是希望从现在起的10年内得到1000块呢？
为了兼顾这两个问题，价值型投资者们发明了DCF（Discounted Cash Flow，贴现现金流）来计算人们为了获得未来的现金流现在所愿付出的价钱。简而言之，DCF就是将未来现金流转换成现值。这实际上没有听起来的那么复杂，只要你愿意付出时间和精力。
不为浮躁所动
那么，既然这个方法如此简单，为什么并非每个人都能判定合理的买卖价格，成为成功投资者呢?这是因为，成功的投资者不仅仅要相信数据，还必须克服股市里的浮躁情绪。
价值型投资者善于把股市的非理性转化为自己投资的优势。回想90年代末期，网络风靡一时，而传统行业股票股却被认为是垃圾股。如果那时你能排除那些市场上的噪音，买进传统行业股票，比如：Simon Property Group、 Macerich，你就可以在短期内获得丰厚的收益。
同样回首2003年3月，当时麦当劳的价格仅是现在的三分之一。你想过你会在四年不到的时间里赚到三倍的钱吗？在一个“低成长”的快餐行业，一个所谓有效率的市场上，这简直不可思议。
放眼未来
当然，过去的已经过去，你不可能用现在的钱购买昨天的价值。这也是为什么你不需要关心现在价格已经涨起来的股票，而需要关注这只股票背后公司是如何做到这点的。想一想那些曾经表现不好的公司失误在哪里，公司管理层如何改变这些糟糕的状况，这样，我们就可以在将来类似的情况中找到投资机会，获得收益。下一个麦当劳随时会出现，就是那些不被大众喜欢和欣赏，但正在转型复苏的公司。
成功投资者旅途指南
成为一名成功投资者并非一日之功。学习金融世界的法则、培养你个人的投资习惯，这都要花费你大量的时间和耐心，这其中还不包括你反复实验和练习的时间。在这篇文章中，投资百科网会带领你走过投资旅途需要首先经历的七大驿站，并且告诉你走在这条投资道路上需要关注哪些方面的事情。
1、准备启程
成功投资好比一场旅行，而且只售单程票，一旦你准备开始这场旅行，就必须做好事先准备。需要考虑一下，你的目的地是什么？需要花多长时间到达那里？需要哪些资源？这里你首先必须确定好你的目的地，然后以此制定这场投资旅行的计划。例如，你希望再过20年，在55岁的时候就退休吗？你希望在退休前能赚多少钱呢？这些都是必须先问问自己的问题，这样，投资计划才能与你的目标相匹配。
2、了解游戏规则
去阅读或者参加一些涉及当代金融理论的书籍或投资课程吧。要知道，这些总结出投资组合优化、多元化投资和有效市场理论的人才可都是诺贝尔奖得主。投资是科学（财务原理）和艺术（定性分析）的结合。科学，更是投资路上必经的出发地点，不可忽视。如果你面对科学和金融理论比较头大，也不必烦恼，市场上还有很多简明易懂的普及读本，例如《长期股票投资》（Stocks for the long run）（作者：Jeremy Siegel，1994年，国内尚无译本）一书中就用简单易懂的方式对高级金融理论进行了平民化解释。
一旦你知道了市场是如何运作的，你就可以得到一些简单的原则用来指导投资了。例如，沃伦"巴菲特曾说过“如果我不能理解它，我就不会在它身上投资”。这是巴菲特投资理念的一个总结，他很好的贯彻了这句话，虽然错过了科技股的上涨，但这也帮助他避免了2000年科技股的低迷。
3、了解自己
没有人能比你自己更了解你自己了。因此，你可能是最有资格为自己投资理财的人选，你需要的仅仅是一点帮助。确认一下自己身上有哪些个性品质是可以帮助你投资成功的，那就好好保持这些个性品质！
这里有一个非常有效的模型可以帮助投资者们了解他们投资行为。
这个模型根据两类个性特点――行为方式（谨慎/冲动）和自信程度（自信/焦虑）对投资者行为进行分类。根据这些个性特点，BB&K模型把投资者分成5类人：
个人主义：谨慎且自信，通常采用“DIY”方式投资；
冒险家：不稳定性、企业式的、强烈的意愿；
名人效应：紧随投资时尚步伐；
监护人：坚决反对冒险，财富守护者；
中规中矩：融合以上所有个性。
不要惊讶，最好的投资结果往往来自哪些个人主义者，或者是那些拥有分析能力、自信的、有眼光鉴别价值的人。但如果你觉得你的个性类似于冒险家，那也没有关系，如果你能调整你的投资战略，你仍然有机会获得成功。换句话说，不管你是属于上述中哪一类的投资群体，你必须用一个系统性的有原则的方法来管理你的核心资产。
4、了解你的朋友和敌人
你的朋友有可能是一本可靠的投资指导书、一家备受尊重的媒体，或者是一些拥有长期观点、正直的、有经验的专业投资人士。但是，你要警惕那些假装为你着想的无信义的“朋友”，例如那些没有道德的专业投资人士，他们的利益也许会和你的利益产生冲突。你还必须记住一点，那就是，作为个人投资者，你是在和大型金融机构做竞争，他们有更多的资源，可以更快更多的获得信息。
记住，你很可能就是自己潜在的最大敌人。你的个性、投资战略、以及周围特殊的环境都有可能会阻碍你的成功。如果你是“监护人”个性的投资者，会发现周围的朋友在近期股市行情大好的时候都大赚了一笔，如果你在这个时候加入他们的阵营就会有悖于你的个性。因为你是一个风险厌恶者，希望保全财富，如果那些高风险高回报的投资出现亏损，对你的负面影响会远远大于其它个性的投资者。
5、找到正确路线
你知识的水平高低、你的个性、你拥有的资源，都会影响你对投资道路的选择。通常来说，投资者们采用下面下列几种战略之一：
不要把你所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里面，也就是说，要分散投资；
把所有的鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里面，看好你的篮子；
结合上述两种战略，运用战术管理核心被动资产组合。
大多数成功投资者们开始的时候都选择低风险的分散投资组合，边做边学。因此，他们的投资知识随着时间累积而增加，变得比较适合更为灵活的投资组合。
6、遵守纪律
坚持长期投资战略也许并不是最令人兴奋的投资选择。但是，如果你坚持受不情绪化影响或者不依靠你“不可信的朋友”，成功的几率会大出很多。
7、保持学习的意愿
市场虽然难以预测，但有一点是可以肯定的，那就是，市场是不稳定的。学习成为一个成功投资者是一个循序渐进的过程，投资道路更是一个长期旅行。如果市场证明你错了，那么承认这个错误，并从中吸取教训。如果你成功了，恭喜，再接再厉！
总结
你投资的成功达到什么样的地步，是取决于你设定的目标。但是，坚持按照这七个步骤走，就可以帮助你走上一条正确的投资之路。祝你一路顺风！
1、准备启程
成功投资好比一场旅行，而且只售单程票，一旦你准备开始这场旅行，就必须做好事先准备。需要考虑一下，你的目的地是什么？需要花多长时间到达那里？需要哪些资源？这里你首先必须确定好你的目的地，然后以此制定这场投资旅行的计划。例如，你希望再过20年，在55岁的时候就退休吗？你希望在退休前能赚多少钱呢？这些都是必须先问问自己的问题，这样，投资计划才能与你的目标相匹配。
2、了解游戏规则
去阅读或者参加一些涉及当代金融理论的书籍或投资课程吧。要知道，这些总结出投资组合优化、多元化投资和有效市场理论的人才可都是诺贝尔奖得主。投资是科学（财务原理）和艺术（定性分析）的结合。科学，更是投资路上必经的出发地点，不可忽视。如果你面对科学和金融理论比较头大，也不必烦恼，市场上还有很多简明易懂的普及读本，例如《长期股票投资》（Stocks for the long run）（作者：Jeremy Siegel，1994年，国内尚无译本）一书中就用简单易懂的方式对高级金融理论进行了平民化解释。
一旦你知道了市场是如何运作的，你就可以得到一些简单的原则用来指导投资了。例如，沃伦"巴菲特曾说过“如果我不能理解它，我就不会在它身上投资”。这是巴菲特投资理念的一个总结，他很好的贯彻了这句话，虽然错过了科技股的上涨，但这也帮助他避免了2000年科技股的低迷。
3、了解自己
没有人能比你自己更了解你自己了。因此，你可能是最有资格为自己投资理财的人选，你需要的仅仅是一点帮助。确认一下自己身上有哪些个性品质是可以帮助你投资成功的，那就好好保持这些个性品质！
这里有一个非常有效的模型可以帮助投资者们了解他们投资行为。
这个模型根据两类个性特点――行为方式（谨慎/冲动）和自信程度（自信/焦虑）对投资者行为进行分类。根据这些个性特点，BB&K模型把投资者分成5类人：
个人主义：谨慎且自信，通常采用“DIY”方式投资；
冒险家：不稳定性、企业式的、强烈的意愿；
名人效应：紧随投资时尚步伐；
监护人：坚决反对冒险，财富守护者；
中规中矩：融合以上所有个性。
不要惊讶，最好的投资结果往往来自哪些个人主义者，或者是那些拥有分析能力、自信的、有眼光鉴别价值的人。但如果你觉得你的个性类似于冒险家，那也没有关系，如果你能调整你的投资战略，你仍然有机会获得成功。换句话说，不管你是属于上述中哪一类的投资群体，你必须用一个系统性的有原则的方法来管理你的核心资产。
4、了解你的朋友和敌人
你的朋友有可能是一本可靠的投资指导书、一家备受尊重的媒体，或者是一些拥有长期观点、正直的、有经验的专业投资人士。但是，你要警惕那些假装为你着想的无信义的“朋友”，例如那些没有道德的专业投资人士，他们的利益也许会和你的利益产生冲突。你还必须记住一点，那就是，作为个人投资者，你是在和大型金融机构做竞争，他们有更多的资源，可以更快更多的获得信息。
记住，你很可能就是自己潜在的最大敌人。你的个性、投资战略、以及周围特殊的环境都有可能会阻碍你的成功。如果你是“监护人”个性的投资者，会发现周围的朋友在近期股市行情大好的时候都大赚了一笔，如果你在这个时候加入他们的阵营就会有悖于你的个性。因为你是一个风险厌恶者，希望保全财富，如果那些高风险高回报的投资出现亏损，对你的负面影响会远远大于其它个性的投资者。
5、找到正确路线
你知识的水平高低、你的个性、你拥有的资源，都会影响你对投资道路的选择。通常来说，投资者们采用下面下列几种战略之一：
不要把你所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里面，也就是说，要分散投资；
把所有的鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里面，看好你的篮子；
结合上述两种战略，运用战术管理核心被动资产组合。
大多数成功投资者们开始的时候都选择低风险的分散投资组合，边做边学。因此，他们的投资知识随着时间累积而增加，变得比较适合更为灵活的投资组合。
6、遵守纪律
坚持长期投资战略也许并不是最令人兴奋的投资选择。但是，如果你坚持受不情绪化影响或者不依靠你“不可信的朋友”，成功的几率会大出很多。
7、保持学习的意愿
市场虽然难以预测，但有一点是可以肯定的，那就是，市场是不稳定的。学习成为一个成功投资者是一个循序渐进的过程，投资道路更是一个长期旅行。如果市场证明你错了，那么承认这个错误，并从中吸取教训。如果你成功了，恭喜，再接再厉！
总结
你投资的成功达到什么样的地步，是取决于你设定的目标。但是，坚持按照这七个步骤走，就可以帮助你走上一条正确的投资之路。祝你一路顺风！
为什么巴菲特会羡慕你
巴菲特一直被视为最为成功的投资者。不过为什么巴菲特希望他可投资的资金少一些呢？读了这篇文章之后你会发现同巴菲特相比，作为一名小投资者，或许更容易取得投资高回报。
价值投资的艺术
沃伦-巴菲特对价值投资的完善作出了很多贡献。他师从于公认的华尔街证券分析之父本杰明-格雷厄姆（在19世纪20年代就以其衡量公司内在价值的投资策略而闻名）。根据他的投资策略，只有在公司股价低于公司的内在价值时，他才会买入股票。同样，巴菲特选择的目标公司也需要满足这样一些基本条件：公司拥有出色管理、简单易懂的商业模式、较高的利润率、较低的负债水平。接下来，他才会进一步地去确定公司未来5-10年的预期成长率。如果公司的股价低于未来的预期水平，这个时候巴菲特才会把它纳入长期投资组合中。
在巴菲特的带领下，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经成长为拥有2000亿美元资产的伟大公司。根据2005年8月一篇文章中的统计，在1980至2003年的24年中，有20个年头，巴菲特的投资策略都成功地击败了标普500指数，平均年回报高于标普500指数12.24个百分点。这样的高回报并没有高风险，伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合中多数都是大型企业股票，例如强生公司、美国安豪泽布施公司、卡夫食品等。
成长性
复利在巴菲特的成功中扮演了重要的角色。在他选择的时候，一只股票盈利的复合年度增长率至少要达到10%的水平。在四十年前他刚开始的时候，有许多达到这样最低投资回报要求的股票可供他选择。虽然他那时候的资产管理规模不能和现在同日而语。
现在，巨大的资产规模和成功也为巴菲特带来了问题。他的新挑战是如何使庞大的资产依然保持过去的增长水平，而巴菲特却只能从那些市值规模巨大的公司中选择优质股票。现在可选的范围相对小了许多。
在2007年，巴菲特增持了1400万股美洲银行，增持幅度为59.1%，而这只仅仅占了他投资组合的0.74%；增持350万股Sanofi-Aventis，只相当于其投资组合的0.18%。
小投资，高回报
在1999年的一次股东大会上，沃伦-巴菲特坦言如果他只有一小笔资金，他可以取得50%的投资回报。对于1亿或者10亿美元的资金，他不可能取得这样高的投资回报。因为高速成长的小型公司才能取得最高的回报率，可惜这样的公司现在帮不上巴菲特的忙。举个简单的例子，如果巴菲特投资一家市值2亿4千万美元的公司并取得了100%的增长，对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司业绩增长只有0.3%的贡献，考虑到研究的投入，根本不值得伯克希尔哈撒韦这样做。尽管增长快速，如今的巴菲特也只能远离这些小公司股票，因为他不想引起小公司股价的不正常上涨，也不愿意去控制一家上市公司。
巴菲特并不是唯一一个因为成功而面临这种尴尬的人。许多优秀的共同基金和投资管理公司也经常因为类似的原因拒绝新的投资者，过大的资产规模会使得管理者们难以掌控，也难以实现投资者期望的收益水平。
总结
因此，对于一般的投资者而言，资金量少确实是一种投资的优势。而且现在发达的网路和资讯手段帮助中小投资者们可以更加方便的进行股票的买卖，更容易挑选优质的成长性上市公司，也有众多的中小企业可供选择。即使作为资金量少的投资者，依然可以进行投资分散组合。作好研究、坚持正确的投资原则、选择优质的股票并长期持有。如果你做到了，你的财富会实现复利式的快速增长，巴菲特也只有羡慕你的份儿
价值投资的艺术
沃伦-巴菲特对价值投资的完善作出了很多贡献。他师从于公认的华尔街证券分析之父本杰明-格雷厄姆（在19世纪20年代就以其衡量公司内在价值的投资策略而闻名）。根据他的投资策略，只有在公司股价低于公司的内在价值时，他才会买入股票。同样，巴菲特选择的目标公司也需要满足这样一些基本条件：公司拥有出色管理、简单易懂的商业模式、较高的利润率、较低的负债水平。接下来，他才会进一步地去确定公司未来5-10年的预期成长率。如果公司的股价低于未来的预期水平，这个时候巴菲特才会把它纳入长期投资组合中。
在巴菲特的带领下，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经成长为拥有2000亿美元资产的伟大公司。根据2005年8月一篇文章中的统计，在1980至2003年的24年中，有20个年头，巴菲特的投资策略都成功地击败了标普500指数，平均年回报高于标普500指数12.24个百分点。这样的高回报并没有高风险，伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合中多数都是大型企业股票，例如强生公司、美国安豪泽布施公司、卡夫食品等。
成长性
复利在巴菲特的成功中扮演了重要的角色。在他选择的时候，一只股票盈利的复合年度增长率至少要达到10%的水平。在四十年前他刚开始的时候，有许多达到这样最低投资回报要求的股票可供他选择。虽然他那时候的资产管理规模不能和现在同日而语。
现在，巨大的资产规模和成功也为巴菲特带来了问题。他的新挑战是如何使庞大的资产依然保持过去的增长水平，而巴菲特却只能从那些市值规模巨大的公司中选择优质股票。现在可选的范围相对小了许多。
在2007年，巴菲特增持了1400万股美洲银行，增持幅度为59.1%，而这只仅仅占了他投资组合的0.74%；增持350万股Sanofi-Aventis，只相当于其投资组合的0.18%。
小投资，高回报
在1999年的一次股东大会上，沃伦-巴菲特坦言如果他只有一小笔资金，他可以取得50%的投资回报。对于1亿或者10亿美元的资金，他不可能取得这样高的投资回报。因为高速成长的小型公司才能取得最高的回报率，可惜这样的公司现在帮不上巴菲特的忙。举个简单的例子，如果巴菲特投资一家市值2亿4千万美元的公司并取得了100%的增长，对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司业绩增长只有0.3%的贡献，考虑到研究的投入，根本不值得伯克希尔哈撒韦这样做。尽管增长快速，如今的巴菲特也只能远离这些小公司股票，因为他不想引起小公司股价的不正常上涨，也不愿意去控制一家上市公司。
巴菲特并不是唯一一个因为成功而面临这种尴尬的人。许多优秀的共同基金和投资管理公司也经常因为类似的原因拒绝新的投资者，过大的资产规模会使得管理者们难以掌控，也难以实现投资者期望的收益水平。
总结
因此，对于一般的投资者而言，资金量少确实是一种投资的优势。而且现在发达的网路和资讯手段帮助中小投资者们可以更加方便的进行股票的买卖，更容易挑选优质的成长性上市公司，也有众多的中小企业可供选择。即使作为资金量少的投资者，依然可以进行投资分散组合。作好研究、坚持正确的投资原则、选择优质的股票并长期持有。如果你做到了，你的财富会实现复利式的快速增长，巴菲特也只有羡慕你的份儿
Saturday, June 21, 2008
巴菲特式投資六招:做自己力所能及的事
巴菲特式投資的六要素，巴菲特的神秘之處恰在於他簡單有效的投資方式。
有"股神"之稱的沃倫·巴菲特看起來是個慈祥長者，他似乎更喜歡家鄉奧馬哈的農場，而不是曼哈頓市中心的董事會會議室。這種樸素作風也體現在他的投資方式上。用他自己的話說，就是管好自己的事，做自己"力所能及"的事。
在20世紀90年代末，巴菲特成功地躲過了網路科技泡沫的破裂，只因為他覺得"我不懂這些"。同時，他卻敢於大手筆投資可口可樂公司。
巴菲特的投資方式究竟有什麼要素？文章列舉了6點供投資者參考：
1.賺錢而不要賠錢
這是巴菲特經常被引用的一句話："投資的第一條準則是不要賠錢；第二條準則是永遠不要忘記第一條。"因為如果投資一美元，賠了50美分，手上只剩一半的錢，除非有百分之百的收益，才能回到起點。
巴菲特最大的成就莫過於在1965年到2006年間，歷經3個熊市，而他的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司只有一年(2001年)出現虧損。
2.別被收益矇騙
巴菲特更喜歡用股本收益率來衡量企業的盈利狀況。股本收益率是用公司凈收入除以股東的股本，它衡量的是公司利潤佔股東資本的百分比，能夠更有效地反映公司的盈利增長狀況。
根據他的價值投資原則，公司的股本收益率應該不低於15%。在巴菲特持有的上市公司股票中，可口可樂的股本收益率超過30%，美國運通公司達到37%。
3.要看未來
人們把巴菲特稱為"奧馬哈的先知"，因為他總是有意識地去辨別公司是否有好的發展前途，能不能在今後25年裏繼續保持成功。巴菲特常說，要透過窗戶向前看，不能看後視鏡。
預測公司未來發展的一個辦法，是計算公司未來的預期現金收入在今天值多少錢。這是巴菲特評估公司內在價值的辦法。然後他會尋找那些嚴重偏離這一價值、低價出售的公司。
4.堅持投資
能 對競爭者構成巨大"屏障"的公司預測未來必定會有風險，因此巴菲特偏愛那些能對競爭者構成巨大"經濟屏障"的公司。這不一定意味著他所投資的公司一定獨佔 某種產品或某個市場。例如，可口可樂公司從來就不缺競爭對手。但巴菲特總是尋找那些具有長期競爭優勢、使他對公司價值的預測更安全的公司。
20世紀90年代末，巴菲特不願投資科技股的一個原因就是：他看不出哪個公司具有足夠的長期競爭優勢。
5.要賭就賭大的
絕 大多數價值投資者天性保守。但巴菲特不是。他投資股市的620億美元集中在45隻股票上。他的投資戰略甚至比這個數字更激進。在他的投資組合中，前10隻 股票佔了投資總量的90%。晨星公司的高級股票分析師賈斯廷·富勒說："這符合巴菲特的投資理念。不要猶豫不定，為什麼不把錢投資到你最看好的投資對象上 呢？"
6.要有耐心等待如果你在股市裏換手，那麼可能錯失良機。
巴菲特的原則是：不要頻頻換手，直到有好的投資對象才出手。巴菲特常引用傳奇棒球擊球手特德·威廉斯的話："要做一個好的擊球手，你必須有好球可打。"如果沒有好的投資對象，那麼他寧可持有現金。據晨星公司統計，現金在伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的投資配比中佔18%以上，而大多數基金公司只有4%的現金。
有"股神"之稱的沃倫·巴菲特看起來是個慈祥長者，他似乎更喜歡家鄉奧馬哈的農場，而不是曼哈頓市中心的董事會會議室。這種樸素作風也體現在他的投資方式上。用他自己的話說，就是管好自己的事，做自己"力所能及"的事。
在20世紀90年代末，巴菲特成功地躲過了網路科技泡沫的破裂，只因為他覺得"我不懂這些"。同時，他卻敢於大手筆投資可口可樂公司。
巴菲特的投資方式究竟有什麼要素？文章列舉了6點供投資者參考：
1.賺錢而不要賠錢
這是巴菲特經常被引用的一句話："投資的第一條準則是不要賠錢；第二條準則是永遠不要忘記第一條。"因為如果投資一美元，賠了50美分，手上只剩一半的錢，除非有百分之百的收益，才能回到起點。
巴菲特最大的成就莫過於在1965年到2006年間，歷經3個熊市，而他的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司只有一年(2001年)出現虧損。
2.別被收益矇騙
巴菲特更喜歡用股本收益率來衡量企業的盈利狀況。股本收益率是用公司凈收入除以股東的股本，它衡量的是公司利潤佔股東資本的百分比，能夠更有效地反映公司的盈利增長狀況。
根據他的價值投資原則，公司的股本收益率應該不低於15%。在巴菲特持有的上市公司股票中，可口可樂的股本收益率超過30%，美國運通公司達到37%。
3.要看未來
人們把巴菲特稱為"奧馬哈的先知"，因為他總是有意識地去辨別公司是否有好的發展前途，能不能在今後25年裏繼續保持成功。巴菲特常說，要透過窗戶向前看，不能看後視鏡。
預測公司未來發展的一個辦法，是計算公司未來的預期現金收入在今天值多少錢。這是巴菲特評估公司內在價值的辦法。然後他會尋找那些嚴重偏離這一價值、低價出售的公司。
4.堅持投資
能 對競爭者構成巨大"屏障"的公司預測未來必定會有風險，因此巴菲特偏愛那些能對競爭者構成巨大"經濟屏障"的公司。這不一定意味著他所投資的公司一定獨佔 某種產品或某個市場。例如，可口可樂公司從來就不缺競爭對手。但巴菲特總是尋找那些具有長期競爭優勢、使他對公司價值的預測更安全的公司。
20世紀90年代末，巴菲特不願投資科技股的一個原因就是：他看不出哪個公司具有足夠的長期競爭優勢。
5.要賭就賭大的
絕 大多數價值投資者天性保守。但巴菲特不是。他投資股市的620億美元集中在45隻股票上。他的投資戰略甚至比這個數字更激進。在他的投資組合中，前10隻 股票佔了投資總量的90%。晨星公司的高級股票分析師賈斯廷·富勒說："這符合巴菲特的投資理念。不要猶豫不定，為什麼不把錢投資到你最看好的投資對象上 呢？"
6.要有耐心等待如果你在股市裏換手，那麼可能錯失良機。
巴菲特的原則是：不要頻頻換手，直到有好的投資對象才出手。巴菲特常引用傳奇棒球擊球手特德·威廉斯的話："要做一個好的擊球手，你必須有好球可打。"如果沒有好的投資對象，那麼他寧可持有現金。據晨星公司統計，現金在伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的投資配比中佔18%以上，而大多數基金公司只有4%的現金。
中行更勝工行
工商銀行（1398）董事長姜建清上星期表示，希望在未來五年內，令工行變成全球最賺錢銀行。若以市值計算，工行刻下已是全世界最大銀行，因此不算誇口狂言。
去年工行盈利達八百一十五億元人民幣，今年首季亦公布賺三百三十億元人民幣。若以此大膽推算，全年料賺一千三百億元人民幣。即使最終只能賺到一千一百億元人民幣，也肯定讓工行躋身全球頂尖銀行之列。何況我僅以一美元兌六點九五元人民幣推算，而人民幣未來還有很大升值潛力。
人民幣升值推高盈利
未來四年，工行每年的增長約一成半至兩成，或許有人認為這增長太慢。假設匯豐較以往的增長為差，未來每年僅有一成增長；到二○一三年，最少可賺二千二百億港元，折合約二百八十億美元。若工行每年增長達兩成，以今年盈利是一千一百億元人民幣為基礎，二○一三年料可賺二千三百億元人民幣；以今天的兌率計算，折合賺三百三十億美元。因此姜建清才深信工行能超越匯豐等老牌對手。
這還要假定美國不少銀行，在這幾年忙於解決刻下次按的問題，就似香港當年處理負資產一樣，故無力令盈利遞升；強如花旗集團，估計今年只能賺二百五十億美元。除此之外，亦要假設沒有大型銀行合併，否則工行亦難如願以償成為全球一哥。
工行現價五元八角，○八年預測市盈率約十五倍半，實屬吸引。工行無疑不俗，但回望其他中資銀行股，就以組合擁有的中行為例，它便比工行更為便宜。
中行去年盈利約五百六十億元人民幣，今年首季公布賺二百一十五億元人民幣，全年推算可賺七百二十億元人民幣，折合約八百一十億港元。中行現時市值約一萬億港元，市盈率低於十二倍半，確實吸引得很。
中行資產淨值更高
根據工行首季的公布，每股資產淨值是人民幣一元六角九仙。而比工行更為官僚的中行，每股資產淨值是人民幣一元七角一仙。兩者甚相近，但工行現股價五元八角，相反中行只是三元九角。
今年七至八月，中資銀行股便會公布第二季度的業績，屆時便可看清楚市場是否低估了這行業。
而美國的銀行業，相信會較預期更快復甦，就像美國銀行（BankofAmerica）睇準花旗集團因資本不足，才提出收購對方。若成事的話，這新組成的超級巨無霸，勢必打沉工行的如意算盤。惟這僅會推遲中資銀行坐大的速度，理由是中國有十三億人口，相反美國本土僅有三億人口；不少美資大型銀行，早已因此衝出去向國際發展。
無論工行能否成為全球最賺錢的銀行，但肯定中資銀行的前景較美資銀行更為亮麗，甚至比匯豐更佳。因為歐美的低增長及高稅制度，會令匯豐的發展蹣跚而行。
去年工行盈利達八百一十五億元人民幣，今年首季亦公布賺三百三十億元人民幣。若以此大膽推算，全年料賺一千三百億元人民幣。即使最終只能賺到一千一百億元人民幣，也肯定讓工行躋身全球頂尖銀行之列。何況我僅以一美元兌六點九五元人民幣推算，而人民幣未來還有很大升值潛力。
人民幣升值推高盈利
未來四年，工行每年的增長約一成半至兩成，或許有人認為這增長太慢。假設匯豐較以往的增長為差，未來每年僅有一成增長；到二○一三年，最少可賺二千二百億港元，折合約二百八十億美元。若工行每年增長達兩成，以今年盈利是一千一百億元人民幣為基礎，二○一三年料可賺二千三百億元人民幣；以今天的兌率計算，折合賺三百三十億美元。因此姜建清才深信工行能超越匯豐等老牌對手。
這還要假定美國不少銀行，在這幾年忙於解決刻下次按的問題，就似香港當年處理負資產一樣，故無力令盈利遞升；強如花旗集團，估計今年只能賺二百五十億美元。除此之外，亦要假設沒有大型銀行合併，否則工行亦難如願以償成為全球一哥。
工行現價五元八角，○八年預測市盈率約十五倍半，實屬吸引。工行無疑不俗，但回望其他中資銀行股，就以組合擁有的中行為例，它便比工行更為便宜。
中行去年盈利約五百六十億元人民幣，今年首季公布賺二百一十五億元人民幣，全年推算可賺七百二十億元人民幣，折合約八百一十億港元。中行現時市值約一萬億港元，市盈率低於十二倍半，確實吸引得很。
中行資產淨值更高
根據工行首季的公布，每股資產淨值是人民幣一元六角九仙。而比工行更為官僚的中行，每股資產淨值是人民幣一元七角一仙。兩者甚相近，但工行現股價五元八角，相反中行只是三元九角。
今年七至八月，中資銀行股便會公布第二季度的業績，屆時便可看清楚市場是否低估了這行業。
而美國的銀行業，相信會較預期更快復甦，就像美國銀行（BankofAmerica）睇準花旗集團因資本不足，才提出收購對方。若成事的話，這新組成的超級巨無霸，勢必打沉工行的如意算盤。惟這僅會推遲中資銀行坐大的速度，理由是中國有十三億人口，相反美國本土僅有三億人口；不少美資大型銀行，早已因此衝出去向國際發展。
無論工行能否成為全球最賺錢的銀行，但肯定中資銀行的前景較美資銀行更為亮麗，甚至比匯豐更佳。因為歐美的低增長及高稅制度，會令匯豐的發展蹣跚而行。
Friday, June 20, 2008
恐 慌 期 大 跌 毋 須 問 理 由
前 日 ， 港 股 突 然 反 彈 ， 我 沒 寫 任 何 評 語 。 昨 日 ， 港 股 又 打 回 原 形 ， 同 樣 的 ， 我 也 覺 得 不 值 得 評 論 。 過 去 兩 天 股 市 的 波 動 ， 你 會 猜 得 到 嗎 ？ 任 何 評 語 也 只 是 很 牽 強 的 ， 為 造 理 由 而 提 出 理 由 。
昨 日 早 上 ， 我 看 電 視 報 告 美 股 急 跌 ， 新 聞 附 上 一 段 解 釋 ， 說 有 幾 個 經 濟 數 據 不 理 想 ， 投 資 者 擔 心 美 國 經 濟 轉 差 ， 因 此 股 價 大 跌 。 實 際 上 ， 如 果 前 晚 美 股 是 上 升 ， 我 相 信 分 析 員 的 分 析 會 是 ： 經 濟 數 據 差 ， 投 資 者 對 加 息 的 憂 慮 減 低 ， 因 此 股 價 大 升 。
股 市 的 任 何 事 後 分 析 ， 實 際 上 很 多 都 是 如 上 述 ， 為 了 找 個 理 由 而 找 個 理 由 來 解 釋 股 價 的 升 跌 。 實 際 上 ， 美 國 經 濟 數 據 差 ， 股 市 可 以 升 也 可 以 跌 ， 理 由 如 上 述 。 如 果 美 國 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 股 市 也 一 樣 可 以 升 可 以 跌 。 如 果 股 市 升 ， 分 析 員 會 說 ， 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 投 資 者 不 擔 心 經 濟 衰 退 ， 所 以 股 市 上 升 。 如 果 股 市 跌 ， 分 析 員 的 答 案 是 ： 因 為 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 投 資 者 擔 心 會 加 息 ， 所 以 股 市 大 跌 。
這 就 是 為 甚 麼 我 覺 得 沒 有 必 要 為 過 去 兩 天 股 市 的 升 跌 強 行 提 出 甚 麼 理 由 來 解 釋 。
內 地 股 市 就 的 確 進 入 恐 慌 期 ， 一 浪 低 於 一 浪 的 跌 ， 很 多 人 無 法 明 白 ， 為 甚 麼 這 麼 多 好 股 的 股 價 會 跌 ？ 道 理 是 信 心 ， 當 許 多 人 認 為 股 價 還 會 往 下 跌 ， 則 不 論 是 好 的 股 、 不 好 的 股 ， 一 樣 會 下 跌 。
京 奧 漸 近 概 念 股 續 跌
在 牛 市 時 ， 股 民 可 以 接 受 較 高 的 PE ， 相 反 的 ， 在 熊 市 時 ， 股 民 就 會 走 向 另 一 個 極 端 ， 只 願 意 接 受 超 低 的 PE 。 當 上 證 綜 合 指 數 由 1900 點 往 上 升 至 3000 點 時 ， 許 多 人 已 經 說 是 漲 得 太 快 了 ， PE 太 高 了 ， 因 此 ， 目 前 上 證 綜 合 指 數 跌 破 3000 點 ， 也 就 不 值 得 大 驚 小 怪 。
過 去 ， 指 在 大 熊 市 時 下 跌 60% 是 很 平 常 的 事 。 中 國 股 市 不 成 熟 ， 跌 幅 更 是 沒 有 任 何 歷 史 資 料 可 供 參 考 。 我 自 己 也 曾 經 在 不 久 前 買 入 A50 中 國 基 金 ， 後 來 升 了 一 陣 ， 現 在 倒 虧 了 。
2006 年 ， 錦 江 酒 店 上 市 ， 從 上 市 那 一 天 開 始 ， 這 隻 股 就 被 定 性 為 奧 運 概 念 股 ， 現 在 奧 運 開 幕 日 子 越 來 越 近 ， 這 隻 股 的 股 價 卻 一 跌 再 跌 ， 我 手 上 也 有 一 些 ， 真 倒 楣 。
昨 日 早 上 ， 我 看 電 視 報 告 美 股 急 跌 ， 新 聞 附 上 一 段 解 釋 ， 說 有 幾 個 經 濟 數 據 不 理 想 ， 投 資 者 擔 心 美 國 經 濟 轉 差 ， 因 此 股 價 大 跌 。 實 際 上 ， 如 果 前 晚 美 股 是 上 升 ， 我 相 信 分 析 員 的 分 析 會 是 ： 經 濟 數 據 差 ， 投 資 者 對 加 息 的 憂 慮 減 低 ， 因 此 股 價 大 升 。
股 市 的 任 何 事 後 分 析 ， 實 際 上 很 多 都 是 如 上 述 ， 為 了 找 個 理 由 而 找 個 理 由 來 解 釋 股 價 的 升 跌 。 實 際 上 ， 美 國 經 濟 數 據 差 ， 股 市 可 以 升 也 可 以 跌 ， 理 由 如 上 述 。 如 果 美 國 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 股 市 也 一 樣 可 以 升 可 以 跌 。 如 果 股 市 升 ， 分 析 員 會 說 ， 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 投 資 者 不 擔 心 經 濟 衰 退 ， 所 以 股 市 上 升 。 如 果 股 市 跌 ， 分 析 員 的 答 案 是 ： 因 為 經 濟 數 據 好 ， 投 資 者 擔 心 會 加 息 ， 所 以 股 市 大 跌 。
這 就 是 為 甚 麼 我 覺 得 沒 有 必 要 為 過 去 兩 天 股 市 的 升 跌 強 行 提 出 甚 麼 理 由 來 解 釋 。
內 地 股 市 就 的 確 進 入 恐 慌 期 ， 一 浪 低 於 一 浪 的 跌 ， 很 多 人 無 法 明 白 ， 為 甚 麼 這 麼 多 好 股 的 股 價 會 跌 ？ 道 理 是 信 心 ， 當 許 多 人 認 為 股 價 還 會 往 下 跌 ， 則 不 論 是 好 的 股 、 不 好 的 股 ， 一 樣 會 下 跌 。
京 奧 漸 近 概 念 股 續 跌
在 牛 市 時 ， 股 民 可 以 接 受 較 高 的 PE ， 相 反 的 ， 在 熊 市 時 ， 股 民 就 會 走 向 另 一 個 極 端 ， 只 願 意 接 受 超 低 的 PE 。 當 上 證 綜 合 指 數 由 1900 點 往 上 升 至 3000 點 時 ， 許 多 人 已 經 說 是 漲 得 太 快 了 ， PE 太 高 了 ， 因 此 ， 目 前 上 證 綜 合 指 數 跌 破 3000 點 ， 也 就 不 值 得 大 驚 小 怪 。
過 去 ， 指 在 大 熊 市 時 下 跌 60% 是 很 平 常 的 事 。 中 國 股 市 不 成 熟 ， 跌 幅 更 是 沒 有 任 何 歷 史 資 料 可 供 參 考 。 我 自 己 也 曾 經 在 不 久 前 買 入 A50 中 國 基 金 ， 後 來 升 了 一 陣 ， 現 在 倒 虧 了 。
2006 年 ， 錦 江 酒 店 上 市 ， 從 上 市 那 一 天 開 始 ， 這 隻 股 就 被 定 性 為 奧 運 概 念 股 ， 現 在 奧 運 開 幕 日 子 越 來 越 近 ， 這 隻 股 的 股 價 卻 一 跌 再 跌 ， 我 手 上 也 有 一 些 ， 真 倒 楣 。
如何利用OBV指标跟踪庄家
判断庄家是否在进货和出货，有效的方法是学会使用OBV指标。OBV指标又称为能量潮，也叫成交量净额指标。其计算公式为：当日OBV＝前一日OBV＋今日成交量（如果当日收盘价高于前日收盘价取正值，反之取负值，平盘取零）。
1、 在证券市场上，价格、成交量、时间和空间是进行技术分析的四大要素，因此我们应该清楚，OBV指标作为成交量的指标，它不能单独使用，必须与价格曲线同时使用才能发挥作用。
2、OBV指标方向的选择反映出市场主流资金对持仓兴趣增减的变化。OBV指标的曲线方向通常有三个———向上、向下、水平。N字和V字是最常见的形态。
3、股价上涨时，OBV指标同步向上，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个价涨量增的看涨信号，表明市场的持仓兴趣在增加。反之，股价上涨、OBV指标同步呈向下或水平状态，实际上是上涨动能不足，表明市场的持仓兴趣没有多大的变化，大盘或个股的向上趋势都难以维持。
4、股价下跌时，OBV指标同步向下，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个下跌动能增加的信号。市场做空动能的释放必然会带动股票价格大幅下行，这种情况出现时，投资者首先应该想到的是设立好止损位和离场观望。在这种情况下，回避风险是第一要点。
5、股价变动、OBV指标呈水平状态，这种情形在OBV指标的表现中最常见到。OBV指标呈水平状态首先表明目前市场的持仓兴趣变化不大，其次表明目前大盘或个股为调整状态，投资者最好不要参与调整。
1、 在证券市场上，价格、成交量、时间和空间是进行技术分析的四大要素，因此我们应该清楚，OBV指标作为成交量的指标，它不能单独使用，必须与价格曲线同时使用才能发挥作用。
2、OBV指标方向的选择反映出市场主流资金对持仓兴趣增减的变化。OBV指标的曲线方向通常有三个———向上、向下、水平。N字和V字是最常见的形态。
3、股价上涨时，OBV指标同步向上，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个价涨量增的看涨信号，表明市场的持仓兴趣在增加。反之，股价上涨、OBV指标同步呈向下或水平状态，实际上是上涨动能不足，表明市场的持仓兴趣没有多大的变化，大盘或个股的向上趋势都难以维持。
4、股价下跌时，OBV指标同步向下，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个下跌动能增加的信号。市场做空动能的释放必然会带动股票价格大幅下行，这种情况出现时，投资者首先应该想到的是设立好止损位和离场观望。在这种情况下，回避风险是第一要点。
5、股价变动、OBV指标呈水平状态，这种情形在OBV指标的表现中最常见到。OBV指标呈水平状态首先表明目前市场的持仓兴趣变化不大，其次表明目前大盘或个股为调整状态，投资者最好不要参与调整。
谁说打工仔与百万无缘
在“投资要趁早”一文中，我一再强调“经验”的重要性。
要达到“财务自主”的目的，除了经验外，还有另一个非常关键性的因素——时间。
“投资要趁早”是因为趁早投资，有足够的时间来累积财富。
累积财富，需要时间。
时间与风险成正比，时间长、风险低；时间短、风险高。
时间可以创造奇迹。
许多人有一种错误的想法，以为只有非常特殊的人，才有资格成为百万富翁。
其实，只要有恒心，方向正确，加上时间，每一个普通的打工仔，在退休时，都有资格成为百万富翁。
要挤身于百万之榜，需俱备两个条件：
条件一：每个月储蓄300令吉，30年不中断。
条件二：将储蓄投资在每年以12%复利增长的五星级股票上。（每年的获利，包括股息，重新投资进去）。
这里有四个数字需要说明：
第一个数字：30年，为何30年？理由是25岁时找到第一份职业，工作至55岁退休，刚好30年。
第二个数字：300令吉，为何300令吉？理由是工作第一年的月薪可能是2千令吉，拨出300令吉作为储蓄，是可轻易做得到的，不会影响生活素质。
反对为储蓄勒紧腰带
我反对为了储蓄要勒紧腰带，因为这样会影响生活素质。投资致富可以轻松做到，不需要受苦，但要有纪律。
第三个数字：12%的复利增长率，为何12%，而不是10%或15%？
理由是12%是大部份肯化心思的投资者，都可以取得的投资回报率。
美国过去200年的股票投资回酬率为每年10%，但是大马是成长率较高的发展中国家，应该可以取得较高的回酬率，12%是可以做到的。
第四个数字：常年复利增长率(annualised compounded growth)，就是常人所说的“利上加利”。
年头投资100令吉，回报为12%，到年尾时本金加投资所得利润12令吉，下一年的本金为112令吉，如此不断地把投资所得利润加到本金去，重复下去，就叫“复利增长”。
长期以复利的方式增长，可以创造奇迹。
全球的富豪，都是通过这种方式成就的。
为什么要选择股票？
因为现在的股票交易，每单位为100股，每个人都买得起。不像买屋子，需要一笔数目颇大的“头期”，刚开始工作的打工仔无法负担。
那么，每年要取得12%的回酬，做得到吗？
我的经验是，如果只买五星级股票，着重股息的话，大部份人都可以做得到。
目前有不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。
为什么有些人做不到？
①怀着投机取巧的心理进行投资，今天赚，明天亏，到头来一无所得——细水长流，永远胜过“易涨易退山溪水”。
②没有恒心，无法坚持每个月储蓄300令吉，连续30年，半途而废是失败主因。有恒心储蓄又有投资头脑的人很少穷的。
③把资源耗费在消费性的资产上，如买豪华汽车以“威”人，十五万的车子十年后价值只剩五万，十五万的投资可以轻易增值至五十万，五万与五十万刚好相差十倍。
所以不要把储蓄消耗在贬值性的资产上。你的汽车只应占你的财富的10%，超过此数，便属浪费，有理财头脑的人不会这样做。
薪金到手马上储蓄
无法控制消费欲望是大部份人的弱点，也是理财计划的致命伤。大部份领到公积金后，在三年中花个清光，便是明证。
请坚守一个原则，每月薪金一到手，马上取出300令吉，放进储蓄户口，只花剩下的部份。
绝对不要花到月尾，才把剩余的存入储蓄户口，你会发现，未到月底已把薪水花光，结果是一月复一月，一年复一年，如王小二过年，一年不如一年，到退休时仍两袖清风，还要拖着疲乏的“老身”继续把工打下去。
你想这样吗？
有恒心地储蓄，绝不半途而废，坚持只买五星级股票，只要公司盈利继续上升，就不卖。让复利把你的财富如雪球般，越滚越大，你会发现，你可以轻轻松松的在30年后，登上百万富翁的宝座。
如果你嫌每个月储蓄300令吉麻烦，每年储蓄及投资4千令吉，也可以达到同样的效果。
职场新鲜人，何不一试？
要达到“财务自主”的目的，除了经验外，还有另一个非常关键性的因素——时间。
“投资要趁早”是因为趁早投资，有足够的时间来累积财富。
累积财富，需要时间。
时间与风险成正比，时间长、风险低；时间短、风险高。
时间可以创造奇迹。
许多人有一种错误的想法，以为只有非常特殊的人，才有资格成为百万富翁。
其实，只要有恒心，方向正确，加上时间，每一个普通的打工仔，在退休时，都有资格成为百万富翁。
要挤身于百万之榜，需俱备两个条件：
条件一：每个月储蓄300令吉，30年不中断。
条件二：将储蓄投资在每年以12%复利增长的五星级股票上。（每年的获利，包括股息，重新投资进去）。
这里有四个数字需要说明：
第一个数字：30年，为何30年？理由是25岁时找到第一份职业，工作至55岁退休，刚好30年。
第二个数字：300令吉，为何300令吉？理由是工作第一年的月薪可能是2千令吉，拨出300令吉作为储蓄，是可轻易做得到的，不会影响生活素质。
反对为储蓄勒紧腰带
我反对为了储蓄要勒紧腰带，因为这样会影响生活素质。投资致富可以轻松做到，不需要受苦，但要有纪律。
第三个数字：12%的复利增长率，为何12%，而不是10%或15%？
理由是12%是大部份肯化心思的投资者，都可以取得的投资回报率。
美国过去200年的股票投资回酬率为每年10%，但是大马是成长率较高的发展中国家，应该可以取得较高的回酬率，12%是可以做到的。
第四个数字：常年复利增长率(annualised compounded growth)，就是常人所说的“利上加利”。
年头投资100令吉，回报为12%，到年尾时本金加投资所得利润12令吉，下一年的本金为112令吉，如此不断地把投资所得利润加到本金去，重复下去，就叫“复利增长”。
长期以复利的方式增长，可以创造奇迹。
全球的富豪，都是通过这种方式成就的。
为什么要选择股票？
因为现在的股票交易，每单位为100股，每个人都买得起。不像买屋子，需要一笔数目颇大的“头期”，刚开始工作的打工仔无法负担。
那么，每年要取得12%的回酬，做得到吗？
我的经验是，如果只买五星级股票，着重股息的话，大部份人都可以做得到。
目前有不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。
为什么有些人做不到？
①怀着投机取巧的心理进行投资，今天赚，明天亏，到头来一无所得——细水长流，永远胜过“易涨易退山溪水”。
②没有恒心，无法坚持每个月储蓄300令吉，连续30年，半途而废是失败主因。有恒心储蓄又有投资头脑的人很少穷的。
③把资源耗费在消费性的资产上，如买豪华汽车以“威”人，十五万的车子十年后价值只剩五万，十五万的投资可以轻易增值至五十万，五万与五十万刚好相差十倍。
所以不要把储蓄消耗在贬值性的资产上。你的汽车只应占你的财富的10%，超过此数，便属浪费，有理财头脑的人不会这样做。
薪金到手马上储蓄
无法控制消费欲望是大部份人的弱点，也是理财计划的致命伤。大部份领到公积金后，在三年中花个清光，便是明证。
请坚守一个原则，每月薪金一到手，马上取出300令吉，放进储蓄户口，只花剩下的部份。
绝对不要花到月尾，才把剩余的存入储蓄户口，你会发现，未到月底已把薪水花光，结果是一月复一月，一年复一年，如王小二过年，一年不如一年，到退休时仍两袖清风，还要拖着疲乏的“老身”继续把工打下去。
你想这样吗？
有恒心地储蓄，绝不半途而废，坚持只买五星级股票，只要公司盈利继续上升，就不卖。让复利把你的财富如雪球般，越滚越大，你会发现，你可以轻轻松松的在30年后，登上百万富翁的宝座。
如果你嫌每个月储蓄300令吉麻烦，每年储蓄及投资4千令吉，也可以达到同样的效果。
职场新鲜人，何不一试？
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Whose American Dream Is It, Anyway?
A recent "USA Today" poll showed that, given the worsening economy, high prices for energy, and the housing crisis, Americans are more pessimistic about their lives than at any time in the past half-century. Most worrisome is that just 45 percent believe their children will be better off financially than they are, which caused reporter David Lynch to ask if the American Dream was, if not dead, then at least wounded.
I've been asking the same question since I started writing the original Generation Debt series for "The Village Voice" back in 2004. Back then the economy was booming, but the long-term data were already clear -- young men were earning significantly less than their fathers had 30 years ago (given inflation); young women were barely making progress on the gains in the workforce that their mothers had worked so hard for; and both were saddled with record prices for housing, health care, and education, as well as rising student loan and credit card debt.
Well, now I think it's time to take a fresh look at the issue. Maybe the American Dream is dead or wounded -- or maybe it's just outdated.
Perhaps the strongest symbol of the traditional American Dream is the single-family home in an automobile-dependent suburb. Today, in many places, those houses are unaffordable for the middle class.
With gas prices soaring to an average above four dollars a gallon, the car commute is unaffordable, too -- and no one is expecting gas to come back down to the 99-cent range anytime soon.
Furthermore, even if house prices continue to decline and cars get more fuel-efficient, it turns out that the driving commute itself cuts into people's happiness -- so much so, one pair of researchers found, that someone commuting an hour each way would have to earn 40 percent more to compensate for the decreased quality of life.
Another piece of the American Dream that we're saying goodbye to is lifetime employment with a single corporation that offers health care, a pension, and a gold watch upon retirement. Manufacturing has moved overseas, and large corporations simply don't operate like that anymore.
For high-school educated workers, the middle class job is all but kaput. GM was the largest employer in the country in 1970, with an average wage of $17.50 an hour. Today GM is all but bankrupt, and Wal-Mart is the nation's largest employer, with an average wage of $9 an hour.
But what about the most fundamental assumption of the American Dream, the idea that standards of living, as measured by money and ownership of material things, ought to keep rising steadily year after year, generation after generation? That one is looking to be on the shakiest ground of all.
First of all, by most measures, our country has long since passed the point where adding more income and more stuff will make us happier. Once a nation has a per capita income above $12,000, for example, there is little correlation between wealth and happiness.
And in the U.S., researcher Daniel Gilbert found, once an individual passes $50,000 a year in income, more money has little effect on his or her happiness on average.
In fact, not surprisingly, the top earners have far less free time than the poorest fifth of Americans, and their average mood is not much better.
Secondly, indications are mounting that the planet just can't take all this constantly increasing driving and shopping and fast-food eating. If the entire world consumed the way Americans do (China and India are the most obvious examples of countries headed in this direction), we would need six Earths full of resources.
So for those of you who, like me, hope to be living another 60, 70, or 80 years in this unique nation, it might be time to ask: What is our new American Dream? If it's not a house, a car, a lawn, a lifetime of job security, and a constantly rising standard of living, what are we looking for? What should we be looking for?
I don't have the definitive answer. But I have three suggestions and observations.
Time, Not Stuff
Young people prize flexibility with their time. More likely to be raised by working mothers than any generation in history, we've seen the tradeoffs and don't want to fall into the "two-income trap" where both partners work more and more hours, barely seeing each other or their kids, just to keep up with the Joneses.
Both young men and young women say over and over in employment surveys that they want time to take care of their families and their health, to be involved in their communities, and to "have a life."
As we weather this economic downturn, I predict that even more young people are going to choose -- or be pushed into -- a smaller-scale, downshifted lifestyle where they make do with less stuff and trade more money for more time.
People are already planting more gardens, driving less and riding their bikes or public transportation more, canceling their cable subscriptions, and spending more time at home. This is a perfect example of making a virtue out of necessity -- all these changes save money, but they also mean a slower, healthier lifestyle that for some is its own reward.
There are even reports in the media of young families going to the extreme with the trend of taking out a "Selling All Worldly Possessions" ad on Craigslist and taking to the road.
Meaningful Employment
Money and security are important, but research says young people really want meaning in their jobs, too.
This includes finding a personal passion and getting a chance to do something important for the world.
One employment trend that attracts young people is self-employment and entrepreneurship. This ties in to our interest in individuality and flexibility. Nearly a fifth of the workforce can be classified as non-standard in some way, and non-standard workers are twice as likely to be under 25.
Going out on your own has its tradeoffs. This part of the workforce faces greater risk, and under our current laws, they have inadequate access to benefits such as health care and nondiscrimination protection. Yet it turns out many independent workers are more satisfied with their jobs than salaried employees at an equivalent level. That's in large part because autonomy is a major key to job satisfaction.
A second popular direction for young people seeking meaning in their employment is in public service. Teach for America, where college graduates go into underserved public schools for two years, is a top entry-level employer at many elite colleges.
And last year's College Cost Reduction and Access Act established a slew of new student loan forgiveness programs for young people who go into professions including social work, nursing, law enforcement, and firefighting, which should entice even more young people into these lines of work.
And they may well find satisfaction there. In one huge employer survey, the three job categories where employees were most likely to say they had their "Dream jobs" were, in order, teacher, police officer, and firefighter.
A New New Deal
This part is more political than personal. The old American Dream included a social safety net that provided a baseline of security. As noted, this is no longer being provided adequately by employers or the government.
Young people are the largest and fastest-growing group of Americans without health insurance, we lack access to pension plans, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare is threatened by current budget positions. Young Americans in polls hold a more favorable view of government solutions than older Americans, and we are calling for new government investments in portable, flexible benefits that will restore the social safety net while controlling rising costs.
These are scary times. But after Hurricane Katrina hit my hometown of New Orleans, I learned from the courage of people struggling to rebuild. I saw that pessimism is a luxury for easy times, while optimism is a necessity for times like these. The new American Dream may be smaller and less flashy than your father's Oldsmobile, but it's more sustainable -- and maybe it can take us farther.
I've been asking the same question since I started writing the original Generation Debt series for "The Village Voice" back in 2004. Back then the economy was booming, but the long-term data were already clear -- young men were earning significantly less than their fathers had 30 years ago (given inflation); young women were barely making progress on the gains in the workforce that their mothers had worked so hard for; and both were saddled with record prices for housing, health care, and education, as well as rising student loan and credit card debt.
Well, now I think it's time to take a fresh look at the issue. Maybe the American Dream is dead or wounded -- or maybe it's just outdated.
Perhaps the strongest symbol of the traditional American Dream is the single-family home in an automobile-dependent suburb. Today, in many places, those houses are unaffordable for the middle class.
With gas prices soaring to an average above four dollars a gallon, the car commute is unaffordable, too -- and no one is expecting gas to come back down to the 99-cent range anytime soon.
Furthermore, even if house prices continue to decline and cars get more fuel-efficient, it turns out that the driving commute itself cuts into people's happiness -- so much so, one pair of researchers found, that someone commuting an hour each way would have to earn 40 percent more to compensate for the decreased quality of life.
Another piece of the American Dream that we're saying goodbye to is lifetime employment with a single corporation that offers health care, a pension, and a gold watch upon retirement. Manufacturing has moved overseas, and large corporations simply don't operate like that anymore.
For high-school educated workers, the middle class job is all but kaput. GM was the largest employer in the country in 1970, with an average wage of $17.50 an hour. Today GM is all but bankrupt, and Wal-Mart is the nation's largest employer, with an average wage of $9 an hour.
But what about the most fundamental assumption of the American Dream, the idea that standards of living, as measured by money and ownership of material things, ought to keep rising steadily year after year, generation after generation? That one is looking to be on the shakiest ground of all.
First of all, by most measures, our country has long since passed the point where adding more income and more stuff will make us happier. Once a nation has a per capita income above $12,000, for example, there is little correlation between wealth and happiness.
And in the U.S., researcher Daniel Gilbert found, once an individual passes $50,000 a year in income, more money has little effect on his or her happiness on average.
In fact, not surprisingly, the top earners have far less free time than the poorest fifth of Americans, and their average mood is not much better.
Secondly, indications are mounting that the planet just can't take all this constantly increasing driving and shopping and fast-food eating. If the entire world consumed the way Americans do (China and India are the most obvious examples of countries headed in this direction), we would need six Earths full of resources.
So for those of you who, like me, hope to be living another 60, 70, or 80 years in this unique nation, it might be time to ask: What is our new American Dream? If it's not a house, a car, a lawn, a lifetime of job security, and a constantly rising standard of living, what are we looking for? What should we be looking for?
I don't have the definitive answer. But I have three suggestions and observations.
Time, Not Stuff
Young people prize flexibility with their time. More likely to be raised by working mothers than any generation in history, we've seen the tradeoffs and don't want to fall into the "two-income trap" where both partners work more and more hours, barely seeing each other or their kids, just to keep up with the Joneses.
Both young men and young women say over and over in employment surveys that they want time to take care of their families and their health, to be involved in their communities, and to "have a life."
As we weather this economic downturn, I predict that even more young people are going to choose -- or be pushed into -- a smaller-scale, downshifted lifestyle where they make do with less stuff and trade more money for more time.
People are already planting more gardens, driving less and riding their bikes or public transportation more, canceling their cable subscriptions, and spending more time at home. This is a perfect example of making a virtue out of necessity -- all these changes save money, but they also mean a slower, healthier lifestyle that for some is its own reward.
There are even reports in the media of young families going to the extreme with the trend of taking out a "Selling All Worldly Possessions" ad on Craigslist and taking to the road.
Meaningful Employment
Money and security are important, but research says young people really want meaning in their jobs, too.
This includes finding a personal passion and getting a chance to do something important for the world.
One employment trend that attracts young people is self-employment and entrepreneurship. This ties in to our interest in individuality and flexibility. Nearly a fifth of the workforce can be classified as non-standard in some way, and non-standard workers are twice as likely to be under 25.
Going out on your own has its tradeoffs. This part of the workforce faces greater risk, and under our current laws, they have inadequate access to benefits such as health care and nondiscrimination protection. Yet it turns out many independent workers are more satisfied with their jobs than salaried employees at an equivalent level. That's in large part because autonomy is a major key to job satisfaction.
A second popular direction for young people seeking meaning in their employment is in public service. Teach for America, where college graduates go into underserved public schools for two years, is a top entry-level employer at many elite colleges.
And last year's College Cost Reduction and Access Act established a slew of new student loan forgiveness programs for young people who go into professions including social work, nursing, law enforcement, and firefighting, which should entice even more young people into these lines of work.
And they may well find satisfaction there. In one huge employer survey, the three job categories where employees were most likely to say they had their "Dream jobs" were, in order, teacher, police officer, and firefighter.
A New New Deal
This part is more political than personal. The old American Dream included a social safety net that provided a baseline of security. As noted, this is no longer being provided adequately by employers or the government.
Young people are the largest and fastest-growing group of Americans without health insurance, we lack access to pension plans, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare is threatened by current budget positions. Young Americans in polls hold a more favorable view of government solutions than older Americans, and we are calling for new government investments in portable, flexible benefits that will restore the social safety net while controlling rising costs.
These are scary times. But after Hurricane Katrina hit my hometown of New Orleans, I learned from the courage of people struggling to rebuild. I saw that pessimism is a luxury for easy times, while optimism is a necessity for times like these. The new American Dream may be smaller and less flashy than your father's Oldsmobile, but it's more sustainable -- and maybe it can take us farther.
投資需要寧靜的心
高盛估計未來銀行業仍須集資650億美元，美國金融股結束三日反彈。恒指牛市去年10月結束，熊市一期今年3月完成，我地已進入漫長熊市二期。呢段日子利率保持低水平（或會上升四分一厘到半厘，得咁多，多D都冇），經濟數據時好時壞，恒生指數20000至26500點之間上上落落。
熊市二期，除非你係老練投資者，普通散戶都係多做多錯、少做少錯、唔做唔錯。熊市二期中，散戶經常不應出貨時出貨、不應入貨時入貨；不應賣出項目賣掉、不應買入對象卻買入。人非聖賢，有誰無錯？我老曹亦經常犯錯，為阻止自己犯大錯，熊市二期我老曹投資策略係三七分（即只動用30％本金，其餘70％以外幣存款為主），既能滿足自己投資欲，亦可證明自己眼光原來同大部分散戶差唔多。熊市二期投資策略，記住要分散、分散再分散。
至於time the market，除牛轉熊或熊轉牛，捕捉熊市二期上上落落，往往心大心細。熊市二期中做market-timing並唔容易。五窮、六絕、七翻身，睇6月份似乎諸事不宜。
《信報》三十五周年口號係「順理致遠」，強調「理」性分析、講「道理」唔講「感性」。上述口號改自孔明句「非寧靜無以致遠」。投資亦需要一顆寧靜之心，即既不樂觀亦不悲觀，處事冷靜，才能理性分析。近日香港天氣既唔係陽光普照亦唔係山崩地裂，而係滂沱大雨。有地方水浸，有地方山坭傾瀉，因此更要寧靜心情去做理性分析。如果你投資令你晚上睡得唔好便賣掉它吧，因你已過分投資！
今時今日投資戒條：一、唔好投資長期債券，擔心債券大牛市2000年開始，2003年中已結束。二、細價股只宜細細注大大聲，除非你有內幕消息，不然只宜淺嘗即止。三、強調股息率。邊D業務穩定、派息穩定股份可以多D作收息用。四、如閣下3月到5月表現不俗，Stop！今天我地面對係綿綿不絕熊市二期，唔係綿綿不絕牛市二期。唔好以為6月到8月可重演3月到5月情況。食有時、睡有時，熊市二期能夠唔蝕本成績已不俗。為避免「荒於戲」，仍可將30％本金用作投資，以免他日牛市來臨時自己仍懵盛盛。熊市二期仍投資，理由係keep your feet wet（不然你可能冇興趣再落水）。
熊市二期，除非你係老練投資者，普通散戶都係多做多錯、少做少錯、唔做唔錯。熊市二期中，散戶經常不應出貨時出貨、不應入貨時入貨；不應賣出項目賣掉、不應買入對象卻買入。人非聖賢，有誰無錯？我老曹亦經常犯錯，為阻止自己犯大錯，熊市二期我老曹投資策略係三七分（即只動用30％本金，其餘70％以外幣存款為主），既能滿足自己投資欲，亦可證明自己眼光原來同大部分散戶差唔多。熊市二期投資策略，記住要分散、分散再分散。
至於time the market，除牛轉熊或熊轉牛，捕捉熊市二期上上落落，往往心大心細。熊市二期中做market-timing並唔容易。五窮、六絕、七翻身，睇6月份似乎諸事不宜。
《信報》三十五周年口號係「順理致遠」，強調「理」性分析、講「道理」唔講「感性」。上述口號改自孔明句「非寧靜無以致遠」。投資亦需要一顆寧靜之心，即既不樂觀亦不悲觀，處事冷靜，才能理性分析。近日香港天氣既唔係陽光普照亦唔係山崩地裂，而係滂沱大雨。有地方水浸，有地方山坭傾瀉，因此更要寧靜心情去做理性分析。如果你投資令你晚上睡得唔好便賣掉它吧，因你已過分投資！
今時今日投資戒條：一、唔好投資長期債券，擔心債券大牛市2000年開始，2003年中已結束。二、細價股只宜細細注大大聲，除非你有內幕消息，不然只宜淺嘗即止。三、強調股息率。邊D業務穩定、派息穩定股份可以多D作收息用。四、如閣下3月到5月表現不俗，Stop！今天我地面對係綿綿不絕熊市二期，唔係綿綿不絕牛市二期。唔好以為6月到8月可重演3月到5月情況。食有時、睡有時，熊市二期能夠唔蝕本成績已不俗。為避免「荒於戲」，仍可將30％本金用作投資，以免他日牛市來臨時自己仍懵盛盛。熊市二期仍投資，理由係keep your feet wet（不然你可能冇興趣再落水）。
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Over-Reaction Bias
The concept of over-reaction bias. The first two parts dealt with the problems of mental accounting (compartmentalization of money into distinct and discrete "accounts") and over-confidence (a typical human trait where most people feel that they are infallible). Over-reaction bias is a type of behaviour which results in human beings over-reacting to certain news, which is another way of saying you "let your emotions override your good sense".
When applied to the stock market, over-reaction bias typically causes investors to over-react to BAD news, and react too slowly to good news. Why could this be so ? This is due to human being's tendency to panic and let fear grip him; thus over-reacting to bad news or negative information. Note that this is a natural human tendency which, from our caveman days, would have saved us from mortal danger as our bodies tend to respond to such negative stimuli by producing more adrenaline (yes, the fight or flight hormone), thus it allows us to have heightened senses and more energy to run in case we encounter danger (e.g. predators in prehistoric times). It is always better to over-react to real physical danger as we only have one life; but in the market, over-reaction bias can cause us to lose our rationality by conveying a similar "fight or flight" response. Since there is no one to "fight", most people will choose "flight" instead and sell away their investment when there is any small hint of negative news !
When viewed objectively and rationally, this might seem a very foolish, downright silly choice. After all, negative news flows in all the time and one cannot predict the sequence, extent or nature of such news accurately. On one day, it might be record inflation; on another day, it could be high oil prices and on yet another day, it may be increased unemployment or shrinking GDP growth. The point is that bad news is supposed to be part and parcel of investing and one cannot live in a fantasy world expecting nothing negative to happen to one's investments. By mentally insulating oneself from such mental shocks, one can develop better fortitude when hearing such negative news. Even for my own investments, I had recently encountered negative news in the form of record inflation in Vietnam (which affects my investment in Ezra as they have 2 yards in Vietnam) as well as a recent fire at Kreuz Shipyard which is 100% owned by Swiber.
My first reaction upon hearing this news was to calmly examine the facts of the case and to objectively assess the economic impact of the bad news. As an investor, one should be mindful of over-reaction bias causing the bad news to seem a lot worse than it sometimes is. In my case, it turns out that I discovered that Ezra's shipyards are securing contracts in USD, thus mitigating the risk of the depreciating VND; though one consideration is still rising costs of manpower as inflation kicks in. The impact will be minimal and is not likely to be long-lasting. For Kreuz, the incident was regrettable but will also not cause any serious economic harm to the company or its business. Thus, by objectively and rationally reviewing the facts of the case and delving into some research, one can pinpoint whether the bad news may have a permanent detrimental impact on one's investments; hence making the decision on whether to sell a more logical, rational one. Most of the time, if one had done sufficient research and due dilligence, I would conclude that most bad news is temporary in nature and should have already been factored in one's risk assessment when one purchases a company. Only if a black swan event occurs should it give a very compelling reason to sell an investment immediately (e.g. natural disasters destroying key assets).
To conclude, over-reaction bias is a pervasive mental force when one invests. To avoid its effects, one should always keep their wits about them when faced with bad news, and move on to objectively and coolly assess the news before taking any action. Actions taken during an adrenaline rush are usually ill-thought out and one is more prone to make costly mistakes. Always ensure that decisions made with regards to buying and selling investments are approached in a busines-like manner, which is how investing should be viewed.
When applied to the stock market, over-reaction bias typically causes investors to over-react to BAD news, and react too slowly to good news. Why could this be so ? This is due to human being's tendency to panic and let fear grip him; thus over-reacting to bad news or negative information. Note that this is a natural human tendency which, from our caveman days, would have saved us from mortal danger as our bodies tend to respond to such negative stimuli by producing more adrenaline (yes, the fight or flight hormone), thus it allows us to have heightened senses and more energy to run in case we encounter danger (e.g. predators in prehistoric times). It is always better to over-react to real physical danger as we only have one life; but in the market, over-reaction bias can cause us to lose our rationality by conveying a similar "fight or flight" response. Since there is no one to "fight", most people will choose "flight" instead and sell away their investment when there is any small hint of negative news !
When viewed objectively and rationally, this might seem a very foolish, downright silly choice. After all, negative news flows in all the time and one cannot predict the sequence, extent or nature of such news accurately. On one day, it might be record inflation; on another day, it could be high oil prices and on yet another day, it may be increased unemployment or shrinking GDP growth. The point is that bad news is supposed to be part and parcel of investing and one cannot live in a fantasy world expecting nothing negative to happen to one's investments. By mentally insulating oneself from such mental shocks, one can develop better fortitude when hearing such negative news. Even for my own investments, I had recently encountered negative news in the form of record inflation in Vietnam (which affects my investment in Ezra as they have 2 yards in Vietnam) as well as a recent fire at Kreuz Shipyard which is 100% owned by Swiber.
My first reaction upon hearing this news was to calmly examine the facts of the case and to objectively assess the economic impact of the bad news. As an investor, one should be mindful of over-reaction bias causing the bad news to seem a lot worse than it sometimes is. In my case, it turns out that I discovered that Ezra's shipyards are securing contracts in USD, thus mitigating the risk of the depreciating VND; though one consideration is still rising costs of manpower as inflation kicks in. The impact will be minimal and is not likely to be long-lasting. For Kreuz, the incident was regrettable but will also not cause any serious economic harm to the company or its business. Thus, by objectively and rationally reviewing the facts of the case and delving into some research, one can pinpoint whether the bad news may have a permanent detrimental impact on one's investments; hence making the decision on whether to sell a more logical, rational one. Most of the time, if one had done sufficient research and due dilligence, I would conclude that most bad news is temporary in nature and should have already been factored in one's risk assessment when one purchases a company. Only if a black swan event occurs should it give a very compelling reason to sell an investment immediately (e.g. natural disasters destroying key assets).
To conclude, over-reaction bias is a pervasive mental force when one invests. To avoid its effects, one should always keep their wits about them when faced with bad news, and move on to objectively and coolly assess the news before taking any action. Actions taken during an adrenaline rush are usually ill-thought out and one is more prone to make costly mistakes. Always ensure that decisions made with regards to buying and selling investments are approached in a busines-like manner, which is how investing should be viewed.
熊 市 博 反 彈 見 好 要 識 收
昨 日 香 港 股 市 極 度 沉 悶 ， 成 交 僅 482 億 ， 與 去 年 瘋 狂 時 比 較 差 得 太 遠 。 去 年 牛 市 結 束 後 ， 我 最 早 售 清 的 股 票 是 港 交 所 ， 平 均 售 價 250 元 ， 成 本 價 10 元 ， 持 有 4 年 。 為 甚 麼 最 早 沽 售 港 交 所 ？ 因 為 港 交 所 是 屬 於 所 謂 的 周 期 股 ， 港 交 所 的 開 支 成 本 與 營 業 額 沒 有 多 大 的 關 係 ， 生 意 好 、 生 意 差 ， 成 本 一 樣 ， 主 要 的 成 本 是 租 金 與 工 資 ， 不 論 生 意 好 壞 ， 都 得 付 租 金 ， 都 得 付 工 資 。 因 此 ， 在 2003 年 至 2004 年 這 兩 年 間 ， 我 多 次 呼 籲 大 家 買 港 交 所 ， 理 由 是 當 時 正 處 牛 市 初 期 ， 成 交 額 只 會 隨 牛 市 的 成 熟 ， 並 進 入 瘋 狂 而 大 大 增 加 。 成 交 額 增 加 1 倍 ， 利 潤 不 止 增 加 1 倍 ， 這 也 是 為 甚 麼 港 交 所 的 股 價 能 夠 從 10 元 升 至 250 元 （ 最 高 價 不 止 250 元 ） 。
現 在 ， 股 市 進 入 熊 市 ， 成 交 只 會 越 來 越 低 ， 不 斷 的 萎 縮 。 同 樣 的 道 理 ， 當 成 交 額 減 少 50% ， 利 潤 的 減 少 也 會 超 過 50% 。
目 前 的 成 交 額 只 等 於 去 年 高 期 的 30% ， 可 以 想 像 ， 利 潤 會 下 跌 多 少 ？ 因 此 ， 熊 市 第 一 隻 該 沽 售 的 就 是 這 類 周 期 股 。
在 熊 市 ， 只 能 小 注 怡 情 ， 熊 市 時 股 市 畢 竟 是 跌 多 升 少 ， 買 股 票 千 萬 不 能 傷 了 元 氣 、 動 搖 根 本 。 熊 市 只 有 反 彈 市 ， 沒 有 上 升 市 ； 反 彈 一 定 得 見 好 就 收 ， 適 可 而 止 。 當 然 ， 所 謂 見 好 就 收 ， 這 個 「 好 」 到 底 是 多 「 好 」 ？ 也 真 不 容 易 拿 。 我 根 據 道 氏 理 論 ， 認 為 反 彈 浪 應 該 至 少 有 下 跌 浪 的 50% ， 指 也 的 確 由 20000 點 反 彈 至 26000 點 ， 達 到 12000 點 的 下 跌 幅 度 的 50% 。 但 是 ， 道 氏 理 論 在 內 地 股 市 的 這 一 個 戰 役 似 乎 發 揮 不 了 。
現 在 ， 股 市 進 入 熊 市 ， 成 交 只 會 越 來 越 低 ， 不 斷 的 萎 縮 。 同 樣 的 道 理 ， 當 成 交 額 減 少 50% ， 利 潤 的 減 少 也 會 超 過 50% 。
目 前 的 成 交 額 只 等 於 去 年 高 期 的 30% ， 可 以 想 像 ， 利 潤 會 下 跌 多 少 ？ 因 此 ， 熊 市 第 一 隻 該 沽 售 的 就 是 這 類 周 期 股 。
在 熊 市 ， 只 能 小 注 怡 情 ， 熊 市 時 股 市 畢 竟 是 跌 多 升 少 ， 買 股 票 千 萬 不 能 傷 了 元 氣 、 動 搖 根 本 。 熊 市 只 有 反 彈 市 ， 沒 有 上 升 市 ； 反 彈 一 定 得 見 好 就 收 ， 適 可 而 止 。 當 然 ， 所 謂 見 好 就 收 ， 這 個 「 好 」 到 底 是 多 「 好 」 ？ 也 真 不 容 易 拿 。 我 根 據 道 氏 理 論 ， 認 為 反 彈 浪 應 該 至 少 有 下 跌 浪 的 50% ， 指 也 的 確 由 20000 點 反 彈 至 26000 點 ， 達 到 12000 點 的 下 跌 幅 度 的 50% 。 但 是 ， 道 氏 理 論 在 內 地 股 市 的 這 一 個 戰 役 似 乎 發 揮 不 了 。
荷包先於經濟「衰退」
衰退就係衰退，唔理係官方定義定係個人感覺。如果你去年10月冇做好防範衰退措施，今時今日雖然專家仍唔認為出現衰退，但閣下港股投資方面損失已接近資本四分一！未來經濟會否陷入衰退仍在爭拗中，但閣下財政狀況早已「衰退」！2000年3月至02年年底，官方定義美國冇衰退（美國GDP只有2001年第三季係負增長），但作為投資者如不幸重科網股，早已衰到唔清唔楚！我老曹對官方定義唔太注重，只希望投資者可避開任何跌幅超過三分一股市！
泡沫期如何？結束期如何？倫敦法興James Montier認為，除實際分析外，睇睇分析者心態亦好有趣。
泡沫期，人人大叫泡沫爆破，例如去年首三季；反之，在泡沫爆破時，佢地反而認為一切正常（business as usual）。踏入今年幾多分析員講多少次最惡劣日子已過去（the worst is behind us）？證明泡沫在一片悲觀中膨脹，在一片樂觀中爆破。擔心3月18日至5月5日升市只係典型Sucker's rally。
泡沫冇流動性過剩漲不起來
去年10月內地股市泡沫爆破，唔係乜「黑天鵝」，而係另一次可預測人類集體行為（我老曹同天文台長睇最大分歧係，佢認為天氣易測、人心難測。我老曹認為天氣難測、人類集體行為易測）。每一個泡沫由形成、脹大到爆破皆大同小異。面對第一個泡沫爆破而不曉逃避係悲劇，因人人不知（例如1973－74年香港或呢次內地A股泡沫）；第二個泡沫爆破仍唔曉逃避係鬧劇（例如1981－82年香港）。面對第三個石油泡沫已形成，等候爆破而唔願走頭，投資者仍然盲目睇好，可以講冇得救。
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
技術上睇，美國今年第二季GDP增長率進入穩定期（略有升幅），但唔代表股市可重返歡樂時光，我老曹繼續擔心熊市其中一個反彈已於5月5日結束。全球CPI上升壓力在加強中，美國極有可能今年8月宣布加息，但加幅唔會大，估計一次起兩次止。美國經濟雖然唔會出現官方定義衰退，但亦絕對唔會出現V形反彈。
泡沫期如何？結束期如何？倫敦法興James Montier認為，除實際分析外，睇睇分析者心態亦好有趣。
泡沫期，人人大叫泡沫爆破，例如去年首三季；反之，在泡沫爆破時，佢地反而認為一切正常（business as usual）。踏入今年幾多分析員講多少次最惡劣日子已過去（the worst is behind us）？證明泡沫在一片悲觀中膨脹，在一片樂觀中爆破。擔心3月18日至5月5日升市只係典型Sucker's rally。
泡沫冇流動性過剩漲不起來
去年10月內地股市泡沫爆破，唔係乜「黑天鵝」，而係另一次可預測人類集體行為（我老曹同天文台長睇最大分歧係，佢認為天氣易測、人心難測。我老曹認為天氣難測、人類集體行為易測）。每一個泡沫由形成、脹大到爆破皆大同小異。面對第一個泡沫爆破而不曉逃避係悲劇，因人人不知（例如1973－74年香港或呢次內地A股泡沫）；第二個泡沫爆破仍唔曉逃避係鬧劇（例如1981－82年香港）。面對第三個石油泡沫已形成，等候爆破而唔願走頭，投資者仍然盲目睇好，可以講冇得救。
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
技術上睇，美國今年第二季GDP增長率進入穩定期（略有升幅），但唔代表股市可重返歡樂時光，我老曹繼續擔心熊市其中一個反彈已於5月5日結束。全球CPI上升壓力在加強中，美國極有可能今年8月宣布加息，但加幅唔會大，估計一次起兩次止。美國經濟雖然唔會出現官方定義衰退，但亦絕對唔會出現V形反彈。
Land Transport
Margins under pressure due to volatile oil prices; improving ridership to cushion impact of oil price hikes
Spiralling oil prices expose Singapore’s two main land transport operators, ComfortDelgro Corporation (CD) and SMRT Corporation (SMRT), to margin pressure as they have limited ability to pass on costs. That said, we expect improving ridership to partly offset the negative impact of volatile oil prices.
CD, which has a 75% stake in SBS Transit(SBST) and overseas bus operations, is more sensitive to oil price changes while SMRT will benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments. We estimate a 1% ridership/fare improvement could roughly offset the impact of US$5.90 and US$2.10 increases in oil prices for CD and SMRT respectively. We prefer SMRT to CD amid the current uncertainties.
Earnings not so defensive against oil prices. Spiralling oil prices expose land transport operators like CD and SMRT to margin pressure. Both companies currently do not hedge against oil prices and thus are exposed to oil prices volatilities.
Direct energy costs formed 9.4% and 13.0% of CD’s and SMRT’s total operating cost in 4QFY08 and 1QFY08 respectively, up from 7.3% and 12.1% one year ago. CD's energy costs increased more quickly partly due to its larger bus fleet. In addition, both CD and SMRT need to sell diesel to taxi drivers at subsidised prices to retain taxi drivers and maintain taxi hire-out rates. CD incurred an operating loss of S$6.3m in 1QFY08, an amount equivalent to 8.4% of total operating profit, compared with a profit of S$6.4m one year ago.
Limited ability to pass on costs. As public transport operators, CD and SMRT have limited ability to pass on costs. The annual bus and rail fare adjustment is subject to Public Transport Council’s (PTC) approval. The fare adjustment formula, based on inflation, earnings and productivity, determines the cap for the adjustment, which we estimate at 3.9% for 2008.
In view of the inflationary environment and regulatory constraints, our fare adjustment assumption is lower than the cap allowed by the formula. We assume 1.0% and 1.8% adjustments for rail and bus fares respectively, to be approved in 2H08.
Improving ridership is a positive. We saw significant ridership increases for both rail and bus ridership in Jan-May 08. This could be partly attributable to the switch to public transport after the taxi fare hikes in Dec 07. Rising petrol prices are another push factor, as evidenced by the sharp ridership increase in Apr-May 08 in the wake of runaway oil prices since March.
The Singapore government’s push for public transport usage – eg by raising Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) rates and installing more gantries – is also a long-term drive to boost public transport ridership. This would improve CD’s and SMRT’s yields significantly due to their high operating leverage.
CD is more sensitive to oil price changes due to its larger taxi and bus fleet. We are assuming full-year oil prices of US$115/bbl. Buses contributed 39% of CD’s operating profit in 1QFY08, vs SMRT’s 0.4% in 4QFY08. We estimate a US$10 increase in oil prices would drag down CD’s profit by about 12.5%, vs SMRT’s 6.1% in the same event.
SMRT could withstand oil shocks slightly better. It has locked in electricity prices for rail until Oct 08, which accounted for half of its energy costs in FY08. We believe it could negotiate good rates for future contracts due to its strong market position. In addition, SMRT’s rental income, accounting for 22% of total operating profit in 4QFY08, could cushion it against oil price shocks.
SMRT Corporation (SMRT)
BUY
Current Price: S$1.80 Target Price: S$1.98
ComfortDelgro Corporation(CD SP)
HOLD
Current Price: S$1.62 Fair Price: S$1.80
SMRT would benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments,thanks to its higher operating leverage. CD’s overseas bus revenues (including the UK and Australian markets) are based on contract rates plus performance bonus rather than fare income. Therefore, CD would benefit less from ridership improvements. In the event of a 1% ridership/fare adjustment in Singapore from our base scenario, SMRT’s bottom line would be enhanced by 3.6%, higher than CD’s 2.7% rise.
In other words, a 1% ridership/fare adjustment can roughly offset the impact of US$5.90/bbl and US$2.10/bbl oil price increases for SMRT and CD respectively.
Note: SMRT’s financial year ends on 31 March.
Spiralling oil prices expose Singapore’s two main land transport operators, ComfortDelgro Corporation (CD) and SMRT Corporation (SMRT), to margin pressure as they have limited ability to pass on costs. That said, we expect improving ridership to partly offset the negative impact of volatile oil prices.
CD, which has a 75% stake in SBS Transit(SBST) and overseas bus operations, is more sensitive to oil price changes while SMRT will benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments. We estimate a 1% ridership/fare improvement could roughly offset the impact of US$5.90 and US$2.10 increases in oil prices for CD and SMRT respectively. We prefer SMRT to CD amid the current uncertainties.
Earnings not so defensive against oil prices. Spiralling oil prices expose land transport operators like CD and SMRT to margin pressure. Both companies currently do not hedge against oil prices and thus are exposed to oil prices volatilities.
Direct energy costs formed 9.4% and 13.0% of CD’s and SMRT’s total operating cost in 4QFY08 and 1QFY08 respectively, up from 7.3% and 12.1% one year ago. CD's energy costs increased more quickly partly due to its larger bus fleet. In addition, both CD and SMRT need to sell diesel to taxi drivers at subsidised prices to retain taxi drivers and maintain taxi hire-out rates. CD incurred an operating loss of S$6.3m in 1QFY08, an amount equivalent to 8.4% of total operating profit, compared with a profit of S$6.4m one year ago.
Limited ability to pass on costs. As public transport operators, CD and SMRT have limited ability to pass on costs. The annual bus and rail fare adjustment is subject to Public Transport Council’s (PTC) approval. The fare adjustment formula, based on inflation, earnings and productivity, determines the cap for the adjustment, which we estimate at 3.9% for 2008.
In view of the inflationary environment and regulatory constraints, our fare adjustment assumption is lower than the cap allowed by the formula. We assume 1.0% and 1.8% adjustments for rail and bus fares respectively, to be approved in 2H08.
Improving ridership is a positive. We saw significant ridership increases for both rail and bus ridership in Jan-May 08. This could be partly attributable to the switch to public transport after the taxi fare hikes in Dec 07. Rising petrol prices are another push factor, as evidenced by the sharp ridership increase in Apr-May 08 in the wake of runaway oil prices since March.
The Singapore government’s push for public transport usage – eg by raising Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) rates and installing more gantries – is also a long-term drive to boost public transport ridership. This would improve CD’s and SMRT’s yields significantly due to their high operating leverage.
CD is more sensitive to oil price changes due to its larger taxi and bus fleet. We are assuming full-year oil prices of US$115/bbl. Buses contributed 39% of CD’s operating profit in 1QFY08, vs SMRT’s 0.4% in 4QFY08. We estimate a US$10 increase in oil prices would drag down CD’s profit by about 12.5%, vs SMRT’s 6.1% in the same event.
SMRT could withstand oil shocks slightly better. It has locked in electricity prices for rail until Oct 08, which accounted for half of its energy costs in FY08. We believe it could negotiate good rates for future contracts due to its strong market position. In addition, SMRT’s rental income, accounting for 22% of total operating profit in 4QFY08, could cushion it against oil price shocks.
SMRT Corporation (SMRT)
BUY
Current Price: S$1.80 Target Price: S$1.98
ComfortDelgro Corporation(CD SP)
HOLD
Current Price: S$1.62 Fair Price: S$1.80
SMRT would benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments,thanks to its higher operating leverage. CD’s overseas bus revenues (including the UK and Australian markets) are based on contract rates plus performance bonus rather than fare income. Therefore, CD would benefit less from ridership improvements. In the event of a 1% ridership/fare adjustment in Singapore from our base scenario, SMRT’s bottom line would be enhanced by 3.6%, higher than CD’s 2.7% rise.
In other words, a 1% ridership/fare adjustment can roughly offset the impact of US$5.90/bbl and US$2.10/bbl oil price increases for SMRT and CD respectively.
Note: SMRT’s financial year ends on 31 March.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
383名基金经理 半年巨亏一万亿
他们见多识广，每人手头上都掌握着几十亿、数百亿的资金；他们是被誉为天之骄子的基金经理，他们被认为神秘而又无所不能。唯一遗憾的是，在他们身上发生了一件划时代的事情，但并不值得羡慕。2008年上半年，他们总体亏损了高达一万亿元，超过了作为国民经济支柱的169家中央企业2007年的总利润；并超过了中国在2006年和2007年两年的财政总收入；这也可能是中国历史上，中国人在这么短的时间内可能遭遇的最大财富损失。
不幸的是，同时作为享受娱乐明星般待遇的“兼职股评家”，他们的预言也非常不走运。据统计显示，总体而言，在2007年发生股市崩盘的那个秋天，正是基金经理唱多声音最高亢的时候，其时公开的乐观主义者人数众多，并且观点鲜明。很多基金经理情绪激昂地声称，中国股市的黄金十年还刚刚起步；较为典型的是，长盛同智优势增长基金经理肖强对媒体表示，“我们现在的观点与2000点时没有变化，还是坚定地做多中国”！
现任383名基金经理，在不到半年的时间里，不可思议地令一千万基民损失了一万亿元。不言而明，股市崩盘对基民来说是致命的打击。
然而，经历持续暴跌后，基金经理们开始寻找他们预测失误的理由。有基金经理对媒体表示，“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业，就像受过专业训练的医生一样，我们尚且必须接受其50%的误诊率，我们也不应该对基金经理给予过高的期望”。也许这种想法可以使他感到心安理得吧。
"“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业 "
不幸的是，同时作为享受娱乐明星般待遇的“兼职股评家”，他们的预言也非常不走运。据统计显示，总体而言，在2007年发生股市崩盘的那个秋天，正是基金经理唱多声音最高亢的时候，其时公开的乐观主义者人数众多，并且观点鲜明。很多基金经理情绪激昂地声称，中国股市的黄金十年还刚刚起步；较为典型的是，长盛同智优势增长基金经理肖强对媒体表示，“我们现在的观点与2000点时没有变化，还是坚定地做多中国”！
现任383名基金经理，在不到半年的时间里，不可思议地令一千万基民损失了一万亿元。不言而明，股市崩盘对基民来说是致命的打击。
然而，经历持续暴跌后，基金经理们开始寻找他们预测失误的理由。有基金经理对媒体表示，“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业，就像受过专业训练的医生一样，我们尚且必须接受其50%的误诊率，我们也不应该对基金经理给予过高的期望”。也许这种想法可以使他感到心安理得吧。
"“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业 "
投资者心态
乐观，但不盲目乐观
谨慎，不乱发射子弹，珍惜士兵（资金）
独立逻辑思考的能力，但不钻牛角尖
耐心，无耐心就会炒来炒去
平常心，不会一时得意而忘我，不会一时失意而沮丧
自信心，做好功课后，分析后，相信自己，不轻易动摇
坚定果断，该买就买，该守就守，该放手就放.
谨慎，不乱发射子弹，珍惜士兵（资金）
独立逻辑思考的能力，但不钻牛角尖
耐心，无耐心就会炒来炒去
平常心，不会一时得意而忘我，不会一时失意而沮丧
自信心，做好功课后，分析后，相信自己，不轻易动摇
坚定果断，该买就买，该守就守，该放手就放.
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