还在学习巴菲特？不知道西蒙斯？你OUT了！揭秘20年来最赚钱的基金经理。1998～2008平均年净回报率高达38.5％，远远超过巴菲特的20％平均每年总回报率接近80％。是谁打败了巴菲特？
詹姆斯•西蒙斯，量化投资大师、数学家和对冲基金掌门人；与陈省身联合开辟了拓扑几何新领域的数学教授屡屡创下投资界的传奇——从1988年到2008年，他管理下的大奖章基金的年均净回报率是35.6%，比索罗斯等投资大师同期的年均回报率要高出10个百分点。2009年10月，西蒙斯宣布将退居二线，但毋庸置疑，他在量化投资领域的地位无可替代。
40岁之前，西蒙斯是一位名望极高的数学教授，先后在麻省理工学院、哈佛大学等知名大学任职。但转型后的他在投资领域风头更劲。
大奖章基金建立后，他开始采用量化投资的投资方法，简单地说，就是利用数学、统计学、信息技术的量化投资方法来管理投资组合。大奖章基金的投资产品必须符合三个标准：公开交易品种、流动性足够高、适合用数学模型来交易。而要符合第三个条件，该交易品种必须有充分的可以进行分析的历史价格、交易量等数据，从而找出最适合的交易模型来进行量化投资。
巴菲特为代表的这一类投资人可以被视为定性投资。定性投资者认为现实世界是极为复杂的，经验与思考才是财富制胜之道。因此其成功的关键，不是顶级的科技，而是对市场的理解、洞悉和不随波逐流的勇气，即以"人"的因素造就财富的增值。定性投资者以深入的基本面分析研究为核心基础，辅以对上市公司的调研，和管理层的交流，及各类研究报告。其组合决策过程是基金经理在综合了所有信息后，依赖主观判断及直觉来精选个股，构建组合，以产生超额收益。
2005年，西蒙斯成为全球收入最高的对冲基金经理，净赚15亿美元，差不多是索罗斯的两倍；从1988年开始，他所掌管的大奖章基金年均回报率高达34％，15年来资产从未减少过。西蒙斯几乎从不雇用华尔街的分析师，他的文艺复兴科技公司里坐满了数学和自然科学的博士。用数学模型捕捉市场机会，由电脑作出交易决策，是这位超级投资者成功的秘诀。
西蒙斯还擅长通过捕捉大量的市场异常瞬间来赚钱，总结出一套“壁虎式投资法”。他认为：“交易就要像壁虎一样，平时趴在墙上一动不动，蚊子一旦出现就迅速将其吃掉，然后恢复平静，等待下一个机会。”他表示：“我们关注的是那些很小的机会，可能转瞬即逝。这些机会出现之后我们会做出预测，然后进行相应的交易。交易之后，我们又会对新的市场情况进行跟踪和评判，预测也会相应调整，投资组合也会跟着变化。”
但是，频繁短线操作可能产生流动性风险，即如果市场深度不够，大量交易会对价格产生影响，而这种价格变化意味着卖价降低、买价升高，交易成本增加。而大奖章基金能长期占据行业翘楚地位的原因之一就是西蒙斯对流动性风险的把握。比如，大奖章基金所投资的金融产品都有很好的流动性，基金的仓位很分散，每个交易的数量都很有限，并不断加强和完善电子交易的流程和系统。
交易就要像壁虎一样，平时趴在墙上一动不动，蚊子一旦出现就迅速将其吃掉，然后恢复平静，等待下一个机会。
其实和巴菲特静待几十年之后才买入“华盛顿邮报”和“可口可乐”一样，定性投资和量化投资其实也有不少相同之处。
Saturday, March 13, 2010
历经金融危机却仍然没有被吸取的10大教训
1. 市场并不有效
金融危机后，美国的一个法庭宣称 “ 所有的泡沫都会破灭，这个也不例外。泡沫越大，破裂越狠。破裂越狠，损失越大。 ” 这似乎从法律上宣判了有效市场假说（EMH）的非法。但是，很多人仍然不愿承认有效市场理论的问题。正是基于有效市场理论的资本资产定价模型（CAPM），Black-Scholes期权定价模型，当代风险管理技术等让我们对巨大的泡沫视而不见，任凭泡沫发展却认为市场能够有效的反映各种信息。
2. 相对业绩是一场危险的游戏
虽然很多人不相信有效市场假说（EMH），但却对基于有效市场理论的资本资产定价模型（CAPM）情有独钟。CAPM的问题在于它是基于一系列有问题的假设，如投资者可以买入或卖空任何一支股票而不会影响股票的价格，所有投资者都是基于均值-方差优化的角度看股票。
正是由于有了CAPM模型，人们才会热衷于区分Alfa和Beta。但这些概念只不过让人们偏离投资的真正目的，也就是Sir John Templeton所说的 “ 最大的税后总回报。 ”“ Maximum total real returns after tax. ”
由于Alfa/Beta的概念，人们热衷于和指数相比较，只关心与其他人相比如何。这正如凯恩斯所说的 “ 按通常的方式名声扫地也好过以不同寻常的方式取得成功。 ”“ That it is better for reputation to fail conventionally, than to succeed unconventionally. ”
有效市场支持者喜欢指出主动管理的基金经理无法超过被动的指数。但是，这是由于基金经理无法摆脱事业风险（Career Risk)和业务风险(Business Risk)，无法超越指数也就不足为奇。这并不是有效市场的证明。对基金经理来说，事业风险就是丢掉工作，业务风险就是失去所管理的钱。为了避免这两种风险，极力接近指数的业绩，基金经理越来越趋向于过度分散，模仿大盘持股。但是，这无法创造好的回报。正如Sir John Templeton所说 “ 除非你与众不同，否则无法获得出众业绩。 ”“ It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority. ”
3. 这次从来没有什么不同
格林斯潘在1999年6月17日著名的论断 “ 泡沫只有在事后才能被觉察。提前发现一个泡沫需要有惊人的判断，那就是成百上千的有见识的投资者都是错的。虽然泡沫很少是良性的，但其后果对经济不一定是灾难性的。 ” “ Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact.To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. While bubbles that burst are scarcely benign, the consequences need not be catastrophic for the economy. ”
这个论断体现了美联储的态度。他的继任者伯南克仍然持相似的看法。伯南克还推崇 “ 伟大的自我调节 ” ，认为宏观政策的改善，尤其是货币政策的完善，降低了经济的波动性。正是这种看法，让美联储被流动性泛滥所创造出的表面的稳定所迷惑，无法看到危险而不稳定的债务风险，最终陷入次贷危机。
虽然泡沫的内容总在改变，但模式和动态变化却惊人的相似。早在1867年，英国人John Stuart Mill就提出了泡沫形成与破裂的机制：
置换（Displacement）：旧的领域失去机会，新的领域机会出现，吸引投资与投入，繁荣开始了。
创造流动性（Credit Creation）：货币扩张，利率降低，流动性充裕，盈利上升，这一切养育了泡沫。
过度兴奋（Euphoria）：所有人都认为新的时期开始了，价格只升不降，传统的估值标准被抛弃，新的衡量标准被用来证明高估值，市场充斥着过分乐观，过度自信。John Templeton所说的投资中最危险的四个字 “ 此次不同 ”“ This time is different ” 在市场中回荡。
关键阶段/财务困境（Critical stage/Financial distress）：内部人获利离场，随后紧接着就是财务困境。繁荣时期建起的高杠杆成为问题。诈骗层出不穷。
厌恶（Revulsion）：泡沫的最后阶段。投资者受到极大伤害，以至于根本无法再参与市场。这时资产价格非常便宜。
4. 估值至关重要
价值投资最简单的原则就是在资产价格便宜的时候买进，避免买进昂贵的资产。如果用格雷厄姆的10年平均盈利P/E来评价估值，就会有一种简单的衡量方法。实践证明，当在资产价格按格雷厄姆方法衡量较低时买入，10年后的实际回报率会较高。
5. 等待良机
巴菲特经常用棒球来比喻投资，要耐心等待，等到最好的时机，把握最大的时候才全力出击，而不是随随便便就打。但是，一般的投资者往往缺乏耐心，急于行动。据统计纽约股票市场的平均持股时间仅为6个月。这就意味着有更多急于行动的击球者在不断击球，不断失误。
6. 市场情绪很重要
市场被“贪婪”与 “恐惧”所驱使。投资者的回报不仅与估值有关，还与市场情绪有关。Baker和Wurgler的研究表明，当市场情绪低时，买入年青的、波动性大的、不盈利的垃圾股能产生最佳的回报。而当市场情绪高涨时，买入成熟的、波动小的、盈利的优质股是最好的策略。这实际上是利用了市场情绪的回归均值原理。
7. 杠杆无法把一个坏的投资变好，却可以把一个好的投资变坏！
如果一个投资本身内在的回报不高，加大量的杠杆也无法把这个投资变为一个好的投资。相反，杠杆可以把一个好的投资变坏。杠杆会限制你持续的能力，可以把一个短暂的损失（如市场波动）变为资本的永久损失。如果你要克服短期的市场波动就必须拥有更多的资源。如凯恩斯所说 “ 一个计划不理会市场短期波动的投资者需要更多的资源来保证安全，而且一定不能大规模的运用借来的钱。 ”“ An investor who proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money. ”
实事证明，很多令人眼花缭乱的 “ 金融创新 ” 实际上只不过是简单伪装的杠杆，80/90年代的垃圾债券是如此，次级债券的炼金术也是如此。
8. 过度量化掩盖了真正的风险
金融界把化简为繁的艺术变为了一个行业。金融行业痴迷于复杂的量化工具。这种痴迷背后的原因一点也不复杂：貌似复杂的东西更容易向客户高收费。
格雷厄姆对数学在投资中的作用认为 “ 数学一般被认为是能产生精确和可信赖的结果。但是在股票市场，所用的数学越复杂深奥，其从中得出的结果也就越不确定，越具有投机性。一旦引入了微积分或者高等代数，你可以把这看作是一个警告，这意味着使用数学者是在用理论代替经验。通常这给了投机欺骗性的伪装，变得好像是投资一样。 ” “ Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw there from ... Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment. ”
总的来讲，批判性思考在投资的世界是一项不受赏识的资产。George Santayana说 “ 怀疑是知识分子的贞洁。把贞洁匆匆放弃或者给了第一个来的人是一种耻辱。 ” 怀疑也是许多最好的投资者所共同拥有的重要特质之一。投资的想法不应被自动接受，我们应该把这些主意掰开了揉碎了质疑。实际上，投资者最好遵循英国皇家协会的格言 “ 追求真理，勿轻信人言 ”“ Nullius in Verba ” 。
怀疑的一个重要领域就是风险。伴随着过度量化的一个恶果就是过于相信风险的狭隘定义。可测量的并不一定有用，市场波动并不等于风险。风险不是波动，而是本金的永久损失。波动带来机会，风险带来损失。从投资的角度看，有三种方式可以导致本金的永久损失：估值风险（买高估的资产）、商业风险（基本面的问题）、融资风险（杠杆）。只有理解了这三个方面，才能更好的理解风险的真正本质。
9. 宏观很重要
即使是格雷厄姆也认为宏观因素对证券分析很重要。次贷危机把价值投资者分裂成了两个阵营：坚持自下而上的乐观派和参考自上而下的悲观派。金融危机的实践证明，完全忽视自上而下的代价高昂。理解自上而下的宏观有助于自下而上的微观分析并给微观提供信息。反过来，自下而上的分析也能给自上而下的宏观分析提供信息。当市场中的个股普遍高估，很难找到便宜的股票时，说明整个市场是高估的，应该考虑投资国债市场了。
10. 寻找便宜的保险来源
不要等灾难过后保险变得昂贵才买保险。面对未来可能的通胀、宽松货币政策退出等，提前买便宜的保险能够保护投资者。
金融危机后，美国的一个法庭宣称 “ 所有的泡沫都会破灭，这个也不例外。泡沫越大，破裂越狠。破裂越狠，损失越大。 ” 这似乎从法律上宣判了有效市场假说（EMH）的非法。但是，很多人仍然不愿承认有效市场理论的问题。正是基于有效市场理论的资本资产定价模型（CAPM），Black-Scholes期权定价模型，当代风险管理技术等让我们对巨大的泡沫视而不见，任凭泡沫发展却认为市场能够有效的反映各种信息。
2. 相对业绩是一场危险的游戏
虽然很多人不相信有效市场假说（EMH），但却对基于有效市场理论的资本资产定价模型（CAPM）情有独钟。CAPM的问题在于它是基于一系列有问题的假设，如投资者可以买入或卖空任何一支股票而不会影响股票的价格，所有投资者都是基于均值-方差优化的角度看股票。
正是由于有了CAPM模型，人们才会热衷于区分Alfa和Beta。但这些概念只不过让人们偏离投资的真正目的，也就是Sir John Templeton所说的 “ 最大的税后总回报。 ”“ Maximum total real returns after tax. ”
由于Alfa/Beta的概念，人们热衷于和指数相比较，只关心与其他人相比如何。这正如凯恩斯所说的 “ 按通常的方式名声扫地也好过以不同寻常的方式取得成功。 ”“ That it is better for reputation to fail conventionally, than to succeed unconventionally. ”
有效市场支持者喜欢指出主动管理的基金经理无法超过被动的指数。但是，这是由于基金经理无法摆脱事业风险（Career Risk)和业务风险(Business Risk)，无法超越指数也就不足为奇。这并不是有效市场的证明。对基金经理来说，事业风险就是丢掉工作，业务风险就是失去所管理的钱。为了避免这两种风险，极力接近指数的业绩，基金经理越来越趋向于过度分散，模仿大盘持股。但是，这无法创造好的回报。正如Sir John Templeton所说 “ 除非你与众不同，否则无法获得出众业绩。 ”“ It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority. ”
3. 这次从来没有什么不同
格林斯潘在1999年6月17日著名的论断 “ 泡沫只有在事后才能被觉察。提前发现一个泡沫需要有惊人的判断，那就是成百上千的有见识的投资者都是错的。虽然泡沫很少是良性的，但其后果对经济不一定是灾难性的。 ” “ Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact.To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. While bubbles that burst are scarcely benign, the consequences need not be catastrophic for the economy. ”
这个论断体现了美联储的态度。他的继任者伯南克仍然持相似的看法。伯南克还推崇 “ 伟大的自我调节 ” ，认为宏观政策的改善，尤其是货币政策的完善，降低了经济的波动性。正是这种看法，让美联储被流动性泛滥所创造出的表面的稳定所迷惑，无法看到危险而不稳定的债务风险，最终陷入次贷危机。
虽然泡沫的内容总在改变，但模式和动态变化却惊人的相似。早在1867年，英国人John Stuart Mill就提出了泡沫形成与破裂的机制：
置换（Displacement）：旧的领域失去机会，新的领域机会出现，吸引投资与投入，繁荣开始了。
创造流动性（Credit Creation）：货币扩张，利率降低，流动性充裕，盈利上升，这一切养育了泡沫。
过度兴奋（Euphoria）：所有人都认为新的时期开始了，价格只升不降，传统的估值标准被抛弃，新的衡量标准被用来证明高估值，市场充斥着过分乐观，过度自信。John Templeton所说的投资中最危险的四个字 “ 此次不同 ”“ This time is different ” 在市场中回荡。
关键阶段/财务困境（Critical stage/Financial distress）：内部人获利离场，随后紧接着就是财务困境。繁荣时期建起的高杠杆成为问题。诈骗层出不穷。
厌恶（Revulsion）：泡沫的最后阶段。投资者受到极大伤害，以至于根本无法再参与市场。这时资产价格非常便宜。
4. 估值至关重要
价值投资最简单的原则就是在资产价格便宜的时候买进，避免买进昂贵的资产。如果用格雷厄姆的10年平均盈利P/E来评价估值，就会有一种简单的衡量方法。实践证明，当在资产价格按格雷厄姆方法衡量较低时买入，10年后的实际回报率会较高。
5. 等待良机
巴菲特经常用棒球来比喻投资，要耐心等待，等到最好的时机，把握最大的时候才全力出击，而不是随随便便就打。但是，一般的投资者往往缺乏耐心，急于行动。据统计纽约股票市场的平均持股时间仅为6个月。这就意味着有更多急于行动的击球者在不断击球，不断失误。
6. 市场情绪很重要
市场被“贪婪”与 “恐惧”所驱使。投资者的回报不仅与估值有关，还与市场情绪有关。Baker和Wurgler的研究表明，当市场情绪低时，买入年青的、波动性大的、不盈利的垃圾股能产生最佳的回报。而当市场情绪高涨时，买入成熟的、波动小的、盈利的优质股是最好的策略。这实际上是利用了市场情绪的回归均值原理。
7. 杠杆无法把一个坏的投资变好，却可以把一个好的投资变坏！
如果一个投资本身内在的回报不高，加大量的杠杆也无法把这个投资变为一个好的投资。相反，杠杆可以把一个好的投资变坏。杠杆会限制你持续的能力，可以把一个短暂的损失（如市场波动）变为资本的永久损失。如果你要克服短期的市场波动就必须拥有更多的资源。如凯恩斯所说 “ 一个计划不理会市场短期波动的投资者需要更多的资源来保证安全，而且一定不能大规模的运用借来的钱。 ”“ An investor who proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money. ”
实事证明，很多令人眼花缭乱的 “ 金融创新 ” 实际上只不过是简单伪装的杠杆，80/90年代的垃圾债券是如此，次级债券的炼金术也是如此。
8. 过度量化掩盖了真正的风险
金融界把化简为繁的艺术变为了一个行业。金融行业痴迷于复杂的量化工具。这种痴迷背后的原因一点也不复杂：貌似复杂的东西更容易向客户高收费。
格雷厄姆对数学在投资中的作用认为 “ 数学一般被认为是能产生精确和可信赖的结果。但是在股票市场，所用的数学越复杂深奥，其从中得出的结果也就越不确定，越具有投机性。一旦引入了微积分或者高等代数，你可以把这看作是一个警告，这意味着使用数学者是在用理论代替经验。通常这给了投机欺骗性的伪装，变得好像是投资一样。 ” “ Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw there from ... Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment. ”
总的来讲，批判性思考在投资的世界是一项不受赏识的资产。George Santayana说 “ 怀疑是知识分子的贞洁。把贞洁匆匆放弃或者给了第一个来的人是一种耻辱。 ” 怀疑也是许多最好的投资者所共同拥有的重要特质之一。投资的想法不应被自动接受，我们应该把这些主意掰开了揉碎了质疑。实际上，投资者最好遵循英国皇家协会的格言 “ 追求真理，勿轻信人言 ”“ Nullius in Verba ” 。
怀疑的一个重要领域就是风险。伴随着过度量化的一个恶果就是过于相信风险的狭隘定义。可测量的并不一定有用，市场波动并不等于风险。风险不是波动，而是本金的永久损失。波动带来机会，风险带来损失。从投资的角度看，有三种方式可以导致本金的永久损失：估值风险（买高估的资产）、商业风险（基本面的问题）、融资风险（杠杆）。只有理解了这三个方面，才能更好的理解风险的真正本质。
9. 宏观很重要
即使是格雷厄姆也认为宏观因素对证券分析很重要。次贷危机把价值投资者分裂成了两个阵营：坚持自下而上的乐观派和参考自上而下的悲观派。金融危机的实践证明，完全忽视自上而下的代价高昂。理解自上而下的宏观有助于自下而上的微观分析并给微观提供信息。反过来，自下而上的分析也能给自上而下的宏观分析提供信息。当市场中的个股普遍高估，很难找到便宜的股票时，说明整个市场是高估的，应该考虑投资国债市场了。
10. 寻找便宜的保险来源
不要等灾难过后保险变得昂贵才买保险。面对未来可能的通胀、宽松货币政策退出等，提前买便宜的保险能够保护投资者。
一般股民炒股为何失败
从技术的角度探讨一般股民失败的原因，自然可以归纳出好多条，我这里仅从人性的角度，用心理分析的方法，来看看一般股民在股市当中何以宿命般地会遭遇失败的命运。
炒股失败的原因一：人性讨厌风险。
纽约有位叫夏皮诺的心理医生，他请了一批人来做两个实验。
实验一
选择：第一，75%的机会得到1000美元，但有25%的机会什么都得不到；第二，确定得到700美元。虽然一再向参加实验者解释，从概率上来说，第一选择能得到750美元，可结果还是有80%的人选择了第二选择。大多数人宁愿少些，也要确定的利润。
实验二
选择：第一，75%的机会付出1000美元，但有25%的机会什么都不付；第二，确定付出700美元。结果是75%的选择了第一选择。他们为了搏25%什么都不付的机会，从数字上讲多失去了50美元。
问问你自己，如果你是参加实验的一员，你会做什么样的选择？
股票是概率的游戏，无论什么样的买卖决定，都没有100%正确或不正确的划分。人性中讨厌风险的天性便在其中扮演角色。
我们看到股民好获小利，买进的股票升了一点，便迫不及待地脱手。这只股票或许有75%继续上升的机会，但为了避免25%什么都得不到的可能性，股民宁可少赚些。结果是可能有5000元利润的机会，你只得到500元。任何炒过股的读者都明白，要用较出场价更高的价位重新入场是多么困难。股价一天比一天高，你只能做旁观者。而一旦买进的股票跌了，股民便死皮赖脸不肯止损，想像出各种各样的理由说服自己下跌只是暂时的。其真正的原因只不过为了搏那25%可能全身而退的机会！结果是小亏慢慢积累成大亏。每次我看到中文中“套牢”、“割肉”等英文所没有的词汇，都要拍案叫绝。发明这些名词的人真应得诺贝尔文学奖！这些词语对那些不肯止损的股民的描绘实在太形象了。
假如说股票的运动只有上、下两种途径，所以每次买股的赢亏机会原来各是均等的50%的话，对于一般股民来说，由于人性好小便宜、吃不得小亏的心理，使得在股市中赢时赚小钱，亏时亏大钱，它就成了输赢机会不是均等的游戏。股市没有击败你，你自己击败了自己。
炒股失败的原因二：人的发财心太急。
我读过很多炒家的传记，在他们成为“家”之前，往往都有破产的记录。比如本世纪初的炒家杰西.利弗莫尔（著有《股票大作手操盘术》），他便有三次的破产记录。导致他们破产的心理因素通常只有一个：太急着发财！行动上就是注下的太大。
我刚开始学股的时候，知道自己什么都不懂，在炒股上还是比较谨慎的，不敢每手下注太多。一年以后，自己觉得懂了一点，心就开始大了，每次入市，我开始有个期待：“这只股将改变我的生活方式。”让我解释一下“改变生活方式”的意思。金钱有个量变到质变的过程。假设你今天手头多了1万元，你会觉得松动了一些，也许多上馆子吃两顿，但你仍将住现在的房子，坐同样的公交车，因为它不够改变你的生活方式。现假设你手头多了100万，你可能会买更大的房子，买辆车子及其它你以往想要却因为钱不够而没买的东西。这就是量变到质变的过程。心一旦大了，行动上就开始缺少谨慎。首先我每次买股太多，其次止损止得太迟。我为此遭受巨大损失。因为这种对改变生活方式的期待，我在市场尽量收集对自己有利的消息，忽略对自己不利的消息。特别是在股票运动和自己的预期不符合的时候，这样的欲望更是强烈。
我常常思考为什么会有这样的感觉，或许是因为股票输赢的不可预测才会导致这样的心理。
如果在赌场，每次下注你都很清楚输赢是多少？运气不好，你下的注全没了，运气好，你也知道赢多少，你没有任何幻想。但在股票市场，你无法预测股票会在某个方向走多远。股票可能翻一倍，也可能翻十倍。由于这种“赚大钱”的可能，你失去了心理防备。带着“赚大钱”的心理入场，你的注会下得很大。如果不幸开始亏损，要接受“亏很多钱”的现实是很困难的。随着亏损的一天天增加，你的正常判断力就慢慢消失了。直到有一天你终于无法承受过于巨大的损失，断腕割肉。你经受了在正常情况下不会发生的大损失。
这种赚大钱的可能以及挣了大钱后对你的生活方式、虚荣心及权力的幻想，是极其危险的。可能性是存在的，在现实并不容易实现，你需要有很多的经验，很强的自制能力。
炒股失败的原因三：人好自以为是
大家都知道股价总是在升升落落。当一天结束的时候，股票以某一价钱收盘。你有没有思考过它代表了什么？它代表了股市的参与者在今天收市时对该股票的认同。
任何一个交易，都有买方和卖方。你买的股票都是某人卖给你的。交易所提供了一个交易的场合。只要两位股票参与者在特定的价格上，一位愿买，一位愿卖，他们的交易就完成了。价格也就这样确定了。无论按你的想像，他们是多么无知，多么愚蠢，他们在某个价位交易是事实，你不能和事实争辨。你或许认为股票不值这个钱，但事实是有人以这个价钱买了股票。除非你有足够的资金，压倒股市中所有和你意见不合的人，你可以按自己的意志确定股票的交易价格。否则，你的想像，你的判断，你的分析，都不能移动股价一分一毫。
无论你对价值的判断是多么基于科学的分析，如果股市的大多数参与者不认同你的看法，股价将随大多数人的意志而动。
要特别指出：在炒股这行，传统的对错在这里是不存在的或者说是没有意义的。无论你的智商多高，有什么学位，多么的德高望重，在股票行你的意见不具备在其他领域的分量。投资大众及他们对未来的看法是影响股价的惟一力量。他们用交易证明自己的信念。你的看法可能影响一部分投资人，但在他们用自己的现金来认同你的看法之前，你所说的一切一钱不值。对股市的观察者而言，每个交易及其对股价的影响提供了未来走势的信息。你如果能从这些信息中找到其意义，它提供了低买高卖的机会。每位单独的投资人都有他独自买或卖的理由，无论这个理由在你看来是多么荒谬。如果大多数投资者持类似理由，结果是股票随大流而动。你可能对了，但你将亏钱。
股价就是股价，无论你认为这只股票值多少钱，无论你认为价格和价值是如何脱节，价格永远是对的。作为股市的一员，你首先必须是观察者，通过观察来感受股价的走向，通过观察来寻找机会。然后成为参与者，投入资金来实现这个机会。你常常面对两个选择，即选择正确或选择赚钱，在股市，它们常常并不同步。不要太固执己见，不要对自己的分析抱太大信心。认真观察股市，不对时就认错。否则，你在这行生存的机会是不大的。
炒股失败的原因四：人好跟风
作为单独的投资者，你要决定入场的时间，决定持股的时间，决定出场的时间。而股市就像海洋，它永不停息，没有始点，没有终点，每个浪潮的方向都难以捉摸。虽然它有涨潮，有退潮，但涨潮时有后退的波浪，退潮时有前进的波浪。一句话，股市没有即定的运行准则。
要想达到盈利的目的，你必须建立自己的规则。否则，太多的可能会使你无所适从，其结果将是灾难性的。在心理上困难的地方在于：你必须自己建立规则，并完全由自己为这些规则所产生的后果负责，这是极大的责任。
承担责任是一向人所畏惧。看看你身边发生的事件就不难明白。一旦有任何差错，张三怪李四，李四推王五。而在股市出错又是如此的容易。对那些还不完全明了股票的运动规律，未能明白在何种情况下应如何应对的新股民来说，建立自己的规则决非易事。因为它必须建立在学识、经验、自我判断等因素之上，况且没有人能立即建立完美的规则，特别在你对该游戏的特性和对风险的承受力还未有合理评价的时候，你必须不断修改这些规则，承担执行这些规则的后果。
但新股民既然要投入股市，要成为股市大军的一员，而他们通常不具备制定规则的能力，也没有承担后果的心理准备，那他们自然的选择就只能是“跟随领袖”。这些“领袖”可能是隔壁的剃头师傅，也可能是楼上的裁缝，理由多半是他们“炒过几年股票”，“曾赚过钱”。这样这些新手们就轻易越过了做决定的横杠，如果结果是失败的，他们也有了代罪羊：“楼上的王裁缝真是差劲！”这就是所谓的“人好跟风”及其经常性的后果。
有一天，一位朋友打电话给我说他准备卖掉手中的所有的股票，我问他为什么？“昨晚走路摔了一跤，从来都没这么倒霉！”它们之间有什么联系吗？但我还是说想卖就卖吧，反正不卖你也睡不着。
我明白你为什么这么想。因为我也曾有过类似的思想经历。一位缺少计划的投资者，他的输赢是随机的。就如同抛硬币一样，无论你怎样想，不知道下一手是出正面还是反面。在股市上，上回赚了钱，他不知道为什么，他不知下回怎么做才能重复赚钱的愉快经历。亏了钱，他也不明白为什么亏，下次该怎么做去防止再次发生亏损的情形。这在心理上必然会产生极其沉重的压力，带来的忧虑、期待和恐惧是难以用笔墨形容的。他觉得自己失去了控制，在股市的海洋中无目的地漂流，不知下一站是何处。你有过这样的经历吗？
解决这一问题的惟一方法就是学习，慢慢建立自己对市场的感觉，不要跟风，不要人云亦云，一定要建立自己的规则。这本书会教你怎样做。
炒股失败的原因五：人好因循守旧
平常上街，出门看到的仍是熟悉的房子，熟悉的街道。就是变动，比如修马路，也是缓慢的。我们去上班，走的通常是熟悉的路，办公室的模样相对稳定，工作的性质和内容也是相对稳定的。现在想像一下你去某个地方上班：走的“路”是不熟悉的，路边的“房子”是陌生的，更糟的是没人告诉你今天的“办公室”在什么地方，找不找得到“办公室”自己负责。此时你会有什么感觉？你一定觉得茫然失措。
股市就是这样的地方。它们不会完全地重复自己。去年股票有这样的运动方式，今年决不会有同样的波动。你就像跳进了海洋，失去了方向，觉得自己渺小、孤独、无助。
股市有它特有的规律，有它自己的特点。这些规律和特点都不是完全不变的，它只给你似曾相识的感觉，按这些规律和特点来指引你在股市的行动，你能有超出 50%的把握就不错了。想想每天都要面对未知和疑问，有多少人能长期承受这样的煎熬？
炒股失败的原因六：人好报复
在赌场，我常看到赌徒们输了一手，下一手下注就加倍，再输了，再加倍。希望总有一手能赢，那是就连本带利全回来。这一方面是人性中亏不起的心态，另一方面是报复赌场，报复赌场让他们亏钱。从数学上讲，这是可行的，只有你有足够的资金，总有赢一手的机会。所以美国的赌场都是下注最低额和最高额的规定，够你最多翻七倍。如最低下注额是5 美元，最高常是500美元。第一注5 美元，二注10美元，三注20美元，四注40美元，只要赢一手，就能翻本。我自己就这么赌过，输得灰头灰脸。你也许不相信连输七手是多么的容易。任何人用这样的翻倍法赌钱，只是加快剃光头回家的时间。
在股市中，买进的股票跌了，你就再多买一点，因为第二次买的价钱较上次为低，所以平均进价摊低了。从心理上，你的心态和赌场亏钱时一样。一方面你亏不起，另一方面你在报复股市，报复股市让你亏钱。同时内心希望，只要赢一手，就是连本带利全回来。因为平均进价摊低了，股票的小反弹就能提供你全身而退的机会。
这样的心态是极其有害的。股票跌的时候通常有它跌的理由，常常下跌的股票会越跌越低。这样被套牢，你就越陷越深，直到你心理无法承受的地步。一个致命的大亏损，常常就彻底淘汰了一位股民。
以上我们讨论了一些股市的特点及人性的弱点。坦率地说，除了你自己必胜的信念之外，其他的一切几乎都反对你在股市成功，就算你的亲朋好友，有多少人会鼓励你靠炒股为生？对那些带着只想在股市赚几个零花钱的股友来说，股市在开始时或许很慷慨，随着时间的推移，你就会明白它向你讨债时是何等凶恶。你在和一位巨人搏斗，蛮干是不成的。你要学习技巧，永不和它正面冲突。你要了解这位巨人，熟悉它的习性，在适当的时机，攻击它的要害。只有这样你才有胜利的机会。
股市这位巨人很笨重，作为独立炒手的你很灵巧，一旦发现你的攻击无效，你就必须逃开，防备巨人的报复。炒股是很古老的行业，成功的先例非常多，这是不需要天才的行业。最重要的是锲而不舍的精神和战胜自己的勇气。可以这么说，识不识字和能否在股市成功没有必然的联系。当然，识字的总有那么点优势。
炒股失败的原因一：人性讨厌风险。
纽约有位叫夏皮诺的心理医生，他请了一批人来做两个实验。
实验一
选择：第一，75%的机会得到1000美元，但有25%的机会什么都得不到；第二，确定得到700美元。虽然一再向参加实验者解释，从概率上来说，第一选择能得到750美元，可结果还是有80%的人选择了第二选择。大多数人宁愿少些，也要确定的利润。
实验二
选择：第一，75%的机会付出1000美元，但有25%的机会什么都不付；第二，确定付出700美元。结果是75%的选择了第一选择。他们为了搏25%什么都不付的机会，从数字上讲多失去了50美元。
问问你自己，如果你是参加实验的一员，你会做什么样的选择？
股票是概率的游戏，无论什么样的买卖决定，都没有100%正确或不正确的划分。人性中讨厌风险的天性便在其中扮演角色。
我们看到股民好获小利，买进的股票升了一点，便迫不及待地脱手。这只股票或许有75%继续上升的机会，但为了避免25%什么都得不到的可能性，股民宁可少赚些。结果是可能有5000元利润的机会，你只得到500元。任何炒过股的读者都明白，要用较出场价更高的价位重新入场是多么困难。股价一天比一天高，你只能做旁观者。而一旦买进的股票跌了，股民便死皮赖脸不肯止损，想像出各种各样的理由说服自己下跌只是暂时的。其真正的原因只不过为了搏那25%可能全身而退的机会！结果是小亏慢慢积累成大亏。每次我看到中文中“套牢”、“割肉”等英文所没有的词汇，都要拍案叫绝。发明这些名词的人真应得诺贝尔文学奖！这些词语对那些不肯止损的股民的描绘实在太形象了。
假如说股票的运动只有上、下两种途径，所以每次买股的赢亏机会原来各是均等的50%的话，对于一般股民来说，由于人性好小便宜、吃不得小亏的心理，使得在股市中赢时赚小钱，亏时亏大钱，它就成了输赢机会不是均等的游戏。股市没有击败你，你自己击败了自己。
炒股失败的原因二：人的发财心太急。
我读过很多炒家的传记，在他们成为“家”之前，往往都有破产的记录。比如本世纪初的炒家杰西.利弗莫尔（著有《股票大作手操盘术》），他便有三次的破产记录。导致他们破产的心理因素通常只有一个：太急着发财！行动上就是注下的太大。
我刚开始学股的时候，知道自己什么都不懂，在炒股上还是比较谨慎的，不敢每手下注太多。一年以后，自己觉得懂了一点，心就开始大了，每次入市，我开始有个期待：“这只股将改变我的生活方式。”让我解释一下“改变生活方式”的意思。金钱有个量变到质变的过程。假设你今天手头多了1万元，你会觉得松动了一些，也许多上馆子吃两顿，但你仍将住现在的房子，坐同样的公交车，因为它不够改变你的生活方式。现假设你手头多了100万，你可能会买更大的房子，买辆车子及其它你以往想要却因为钱不够而没买的东西。这就是量变到质变的过程。心一旦大了，行动上就开始缺少谨慎。首先我每次买股太多，其次止损止得太迟。我为此遭受巨大损失。因为这种对改变生活方式的期待，我在市场尽量收集对自己有利的消息，忽略对自己不利的消息。特别是在股票运动和自己的预期不符合的时候，这样的欲望更是强烈。
我常常思考为什么会有这样的感觉，或许是因为股票输赢的不可预测才会导致这样的心理。
如果在赌场，每次下注你都很清楚输赢是多少？运气不好，你下的注全没了，运气好，你也知道赢多少，你没有任何幻想。但在股票市场，你无法预测股票会在某个方向走多远。股票可能翻一倍，也可能翻十倍。由于这种“赚大钱”的可能，你失去了心理防备。带着“赚大钱”的心理入场，你的注会下得很大。如果不幸开始亏损，要接受“亏很多钱”的现实是很困难的。随着亏损的一天天增加，你的正常判断力就慢慢消失了。直到有一天你终于无法承受过于巨大的损失，断腕割肉。你经受了在正常情况下不会发生的大损失。
这种赚大钱的可能以及挣了大钱后对你的生活方式、虚荣心及权力的幻想，是极其危险的。可能性是存在的，在现实并不容易实现，你需要有很多的经验，很强的自制能力。
炒股失败的原因三：人好自以为是
大家都知道股价总是在升升落落。当一天结束的时候，股票以某一价钱收盘。你有没有思考过它代表了什么？它代表了股市的参与者在今天收市时对该股票的认同。
任何一个交易，都有买方和卖方。你买的股票都是某人卖给你的。交易所提供了一个交易的场合。只要两位股票参与者在特定的价格上，一位愿买，一位愿卖，他们的交易就完成了。价格也就这样确定了。无论按你的想像，他们是多么无知，多么愚蠢，他们在某个价位交易是事实，你不能和事实争辨。你或许认为股票不值这个钱，但事实是有人以这个价钱买了股票。除非你有足够的资金，压倒股市中所有和你意见不合的人，你可以按自己的意志确定股票的交易价格。否则，你的想像，你的判断，你的分析，都不能移动股价一分一毫。
无论你对价值的判断是多么基于科学的分析，如果股市的大多数参与者不认同你的看法，股价将随大多数人的意志而动。
要特别指出：在炒股这行，传统的对错在这里是不存在的或者说是没有意义的。无论你的智商多高，有什么学位，多么的德高望重，在股票行你的意见不具备在其他领域的分量。投资大众及他们对未来的看法是影响股价的惟一力量。他们用交易证明自己的信念。你的看法可能影响一部分投资人，但在他们用自己的现金来认同你的看法之前，你所说的一切一钱不值。对股市的观察者而言，每个交易及其对股价的影响提供了未来走势的信息。你如果能从这些信息中找到其意义，它提供了低买高卖的机会。每位单独的投资人都有他独自买或卖的理由，无论这个理由在你看来是多么荒谬。如果大多数投资者持类似理由，结果是股票随大流而动。你可能对了，但你将亏钱。
股价就是股价，无论你认为这只股票值多少钱，无论你认为价格和价值是如何脱节，价格永远是对的。作为股市的一员，你首先必须是观察者，通过观察来感受股价的走向，通过观察来寻找机会。然后成为参与者，投入资金来实现这个机会。你常常面对两个选择，即选择正确或选择赚钱，在股市，它们常常并不同步。不要太固执己见，不要对自己的分析抱太大信心。认真观察股市，不对时就认错。否则，你在这行生存的机会是不大的。
炒股失败的原因四：人好跟风
作为单独的投资者，你要决定入场的时间，决定持股的时间，决定出场的时间。而股市就像海洋，它永不停息，没有始点，没有终点，每个浪潮的方向都难以捉摸。虽然它有涨潮，有退潮，但涨潮时有后退的波浪，退潮时有前进的波浪。一句话，股市没有即定的运行准则。
要想达到盈利的目的，你必须建立自己的规则。否则，太多的可能会使你无所适从，其结果将是灾难性的。在心理上困难的地方在于：你必须自己建立规则，并完全由自己为这些规则所产生的后果负责，这是极大的责任。
承担责任是一向人所畏惧。看看你身边发生的事件就不难明白。一旦有任何差错，张三怪李四，李四推王五。而在股市出错又是如此的容易。对那些还不完全明了股票的运动规律，未能明白在何种情况下应如何应对的新股民来说，建立自己的规则决非易事。因为它必须建立在学识、经验、自我判断等因素之上，况且没有人能立即建立完美的规则，特别在你对该游戏的特性和对风险的承受力还未有合理评价的时候，你必须不断修改这些规则，承担执行这些规则的后果。
但新股民既然要投入股市，要成为股市大军的一员，而他们通常不具备制定规则的能力，也没有承担后果的心理准备，那他们自然的选择就只能是“跟随领袖”。这些“领袖”可能是隔壁的剃头师傅，也可能是楼上的裁缝，理由多半是他们“炒过几年股票”，“曾赚过钱”。这样这些新手们就轻易越过了做决定的横杠，如果结果是失败的，他们也有了代罪羊：“楼上的王裁缝真是差劲！”这就是所谓的“人好跟风”及其经常性的后果。
有一天，一位朋友打电话给我说他准备卖掉手中的所有的股票，我问他为什么？“昨晚走路摔了一跤，从来都没这么倒霉！”它们之间有什么联系吗？但我还是说想卖就卖吧，反正不卖你也睡不着。
我明白你为什么这么想。因为我也曾有过类似的思想经历。一位缺少计划的投资者，他的输赢是随机的。就如同抛硬币一样，无论你怎样想，不知道下一手是出正面还是反面。在股市上，上回赚了钱，他不知道为什么，他不知下回怎么做才能重复赚钱的愉快经历。亏了钱，他也不明白为什么亏，下次该怎么做去防止再次发生亏损的情形。这在心理上必然会产生极其沉重的压力，带来的忧虑、期待和恐惧是难以用笔墨形容的。他觉得自己失去了控制，在股市的海洋中无目的地漂流，不知下一站是何处。你有过这样的经历吗？
解决这一问题的惟一方法就是学习，慢慢建立自己对市场的感觉，不要跟风，不要人云亦云，一定要建立自己的规则。这本书会教你怎样做。
炒股失败的原因五：人好因循守旧
平常上街，出门看到的仍是熟悉的房子，熟悉的街道。就是变动，比如修马路，也是缓慢的。我们去上班，走的通常是熟悉的路，办公室的模样相对稳定，工作的性质和内容也是相对稳定的。现在想像一下你去某个地方上班：走的“路”是不熟悉的，路边的“房子”是陌生的，更糟的是没人告诉你今天的“办公室”在什么地方，找不找得到“办公室”自己负责。此时你会有什么感觉？你一定觉得茫然失措。
股市就是这样的地方。它们不会完全地重复自己。去年股票有这样的运动方式，今年决不会有同样的波动。你就像跳进了海洋，失去了方向，觉得自己渺小、孤独、无助。
股市有它特有的规律，有它自己的特点。这些规律和特点都不是完全不变的，它只给你似曾相识的感觉，按这些规律和特点来指引你在股市的行动，你能有超出 50%的把握就不错了。想想每天都要面对未知和疑问，有多少人能长期承受这样的煎熬？
炒股失败的原因六：人好报复
在赌场，我常看到赌徒们输了一手，下一手下注就加倍，再输了，再加倍。希望总有一手能赢，那是就连本带利全回来。这一方面是人性中亏不起的心态，另一方面是报复赌场，报复赌场让他们亏钱。从数学上讲，这是可行的，只有你有足够的资金，总有赢一手的机会。所以美国的赌场都是下注最低额和最高额的规定，够你最多翻七倍。如最低下注额是5 美元，最高常是500美元。第一注5 美元，二注10美元，三注20美元，四注40美元，只要赢一手，就能翻本。我自己就这么赌过，输得灰头灰脸。你也许不相信连输七手是多么的容易。任何人用这样的翻倍法赌钱，只是加快剃光头回家的时间。
在股市中，买进的股票跌了，你就再多买一点，因为第二次买的价钱较上次为低，所以平均进价摊低了。从心理上，你的心态和赌场亏钱时一样。一方面你亏不起，另一方面你在报复股市，报复股市让你亏钱。同时内心希望，只要赢一手，就是连本带利全回来。因为平均进价摊低了，股票的小反弹就能提供你全身而退的机会。
这样的心态是极其有害的。股票跌的时候通常有它跌的理由，常常下跌的股票会越跌越低。这样被套牢，你就越陷越深，直到你心理无法承受的地步。一个致命的大亏损，常常就彻底淘汰了一位股民。
以上我们讨论了一些股市的特点及人性的弱点。坦率地说，除了你自己必胜的信念之外，其他的一切几乎都反对你在股市成功，就算你的亲朋好友，有多少人会鼓励你靠炒股为生？对那些带着只想在股市赚几个零花钱的股友来说，股市在开始时或许很慷慨，随着时间的推移，你就会明白它向你讨债时是何等凶恶。你在和一位巨人搏斗，蛮干是不成的。你要学习技巧，永不和它正面冲突。你要了解这位巨人，熟悉它的习性，在适当的时机，攻击它的要害。只有这样你才有胜利的机会。
股市这位巨人很笨重，作为独立炒手的你很灵巧，一旦发现你的攻击无效，你就必须逃开，防备巨人的报复。炒股是很古老的行业，成功的先例非常多，这是不需要天才的行业。最重要的是锲而不舍的精神和战胜自己的勇气。可以这么说，识不识字和能否在股市成功没有必然的联系。当然，识字的总有那么点优势。
Friday, March 12, 2010
The Great "Inflation or Deflation?" Debate: Mish vs. Dr. Doom
Which is the greater threat, inflation or deflation?
In Marc Faber and Michael "Mish" Shedlock, we found two market watchers ready (and able) to champion both sides of this great debate.
Shedlock, an investment advisor with SitkaPacific Capital and author of the economics blog, MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis, made the case for deflation: Credit is contracting, despite Ben Bernanke's best efforts to flood the financial system with liquidity.
"The money supply is just sitting there as excess reserves on bank balance sheets," Mish says. "Bernanke can print this money but unless it makes its way into the real economy we're not going to see inflation."
In addition, he predicts "another leg down" in housing and commercial real estate, more consumer loan defaults, and notes state and local governments are (finally) cutting back on spending in the face of falling tax receipts and budget deficits. All these trends will contribute to the deflationary force of credit contraction, Mish declares.
But Shedlock is missing one critical factor says Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report: "When the economy's bad, governments pile up these fiscal deficits and they print money" to offset the deleveraging of the private sector, he says. "They're going to print and print and print."
If the economy sours again and especially if deflationary forces take hold, we'll have "even more stimulus packages and even more printing," Faber says. "That will bankrupt western governments - not just in the U.S. but everywhere. "
And by that, he means the dollar and other western currencies will collapse, leading to a bout of rising (if not hyper-) inflation around the globe, which will spur all manner of societal unrest and geopolitical strife. Now you know why they call him "Dr. Doom."
In Marc Faber and Michael "Mish" Shedlock, we found two market watchers ready (and able) to champion both sides of this great debate.
Shedlock, an investment advisor with SitkaPacific Capital and author of the economics blog, MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis, made the case for deflation: Credit is contracting, despite Ben Bernanke's best efforts to flood the financial system with liquidity.
"The money supply is just sitting there as excess reserves on bank balance sheets," Mish says. "Bernanke can print this money but unless it makes its way into the real economy we're not going to see inflation."
In addition, he predicts "another leg down" in housing and commercial real estate, more consumer loan defaults, and notes state and local governments are (finally) cutting back on spending in the face of falling tax receipts and budget deficits. All these trends will contribute to the deflationary force of credit contraction, Mish declares.
But Shedlock is missing one critical factor says Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report: "When the economy's bad, governments pile up these fiscal deficits and they print money" to offset the deleveraging of the private sector, he says. "They're going to print and print and print."
If the economy sours again and especially if deflationary forces take hold, we'll have "even more stimulus packages and even more printing," Faber says. "That will bankrupt western governments - not just in the U.S. but everywhere. "
And by that, he means the dollar and other western currencies will collapse, leading to a bout of rising (if not hyper-) inflation around the globe, which will spur all manner of societal unrest and geopolitical strife. Now you know why they call him "Dr. Doom."
Marc Faber: Don't Expect Another Crash ... Bernanke Won't Allow it
The bulls are firmly in control on Wall Street. Heading into Friday's session, the S&P 500 is at a 17-month high. Undaunted, the bears point to light volume as a sign of weakness and a correction to come.
"I would rather be lightening up on positions in the next couple of weeks than heavily buying in here," says Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report.
Accompanied by Michael "Mish" Shedlock, the man behind the economics blog, MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis, Faber tells Tech Ticker there's very few opportunities to make money in the market right now.
"Mish" who also thinks it's time to take profits, goes even further, predicting a "50-50 chance the bottom is not in yet."
Faber, however, is confident we won't "see 666 on the S&P 500 ever again." He says "if we go down by 10-20% on the S&P 500, our money printer Ben Bernanke will flood the market, weakening the dollar," and thereby driving up stock prices.
If you are going to put money to work in stocks both market watchers think Japan is the place to be. After a 20 year bear market and despite high-debt-to-GDP levels, the pair think the market has become too cheap to ignore. Always a contrarian, Faber believes the lack of interest in Japanese stocks makes it one of the most compelling buys in the world.
-- Stay tuned for more from Faber and Mish: In forthcoming clips the two debate the fate of the U.S. and if inflation or deflation will cause the our downfall.
"I would rather be lightening up on positions in the next couple of weeks than heavily buying in here," says Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report.
Accompanied by Michael "Mish" Shedlock, the man behind the economics blog, MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis, Faber tells Tech Ticker there's very few opportunities to make money in the market right now.
"Mish" who also thinks it's time to take profits, goes even further, predicting a "50-50 chance the bottom is not in yet."
Faber, however, is confident we won't "see 666 on the S&P 500 ever again." He says "if we go down by 10-20% on the S&P 500, our money printer Ben Bernanke will flood the market, weakening the dollar," and thereby driving up stock prices.
If you are going to put money to work in stocks both market watchers think Japan is the place to be. After a 20 year bear market and despite high-debt-to-GDP levels, the pair think the market has become too cheap to ignore. Always a contrarian, Faber believes the lack of interest in Japanese stocks makes it one of the most compelling buys in the world.
-- Stay tuned for more from Faber and Mish: In forthcoming clips the two debate the fate of the U.S. and if inflation or deflation will cause the our downfall.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Marc Faber
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg in Hong Kong giving detailed thoughts on the market. He writes the Gloom Boom Doom Report. I quoted the segment for those with Youtube blocked. He gives his thoughts on the market, Euro and US Dollar.
Market: "I'm not so sure that we'll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don't think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside. I think if we make a new high then I wouldn't rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don't forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn't going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January."
Currencies: Euro: "Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you've read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there's nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don't think there is much good about the Euro either..."
US Dollar: "When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren't going to come down, that they'll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don't forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro. Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong".
Asset Class Right Now: "Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we'll have to see further. In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we'll get more inflation in due course".
Market: "I'm not so sure that we'll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don't think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside. I think if we make a new high then I wouldn't rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don't forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn't going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January."
Currencies: Euro: "Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you've read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there's nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don't think there is much good about the Euro either..."
US Dollar: "When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren't going to come down, that they'll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don't forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro. Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong".
Asset Class Right Now: "Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we'll have to see further. In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we'll get more inflation in due course".
Words of Advice in investing from Warren Buffett
From the wallstreet journal, great general advices you should keep in mind when thinking about your next investment:
Stay liquid.
“We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers,” he wrote. “We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses.”
Buy when everyone else is selling.
“We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend … Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”
Don’t buy when everyone else is buying.
“Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,” Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
“In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business-through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market-and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”
Don’t get suckered by big growth stories.
Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger “avoid businesses whose futures we can’t evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be.”
Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. “Dramatic growth” doesn’t always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
Understand what you own.
“Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us,” Mr. Buffett wrote.
“We want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it’s one that follows policies with which they concur.”
Defense beats offense.
“Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that’s likely to continue.” All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
Stay liquid.
“We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers,” he wrote. “We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses.”
Buy when everyone else is selling.
“We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend … Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”
Don’t buy when everyone else is buying.
“Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,” Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
“In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business-through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market-and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”
Don’t get suckered by big growth stories.
Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger “avoid businesses whose futures we can’t evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be.”
Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. “Dramatic growth” doesn’t always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
Understand what you own.
“Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us,” Mr. Buffett wrote.
“We want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it’s one that follows policies with which they concur.”
Defense beats offense.
“Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that’s likely to continue.” All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
Marc Faber's 2010 Investment Outlook: Bullish Sentiment Too High For His Liking
Always the contrarian, Marc Faber's investing advice for 2010 is this -- listen to the experts, and then do the opposite. Faber, the editor of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report, wrote in his most recent January newsletter that he was bullish on U.S. stocks.
Nothing lasts forever, though.
He's changed his mind after participating in this week's Barron's round-table discussion. "Everybody was looking for further gains in stocks," he tells Henry in this clip. That opinion is also reflected by Bloomberg’s latest investor survey, which registered its highest level of bullish sentiment since the survey began in 2007.
That overwhelming consensus worries Faber. He now thinks a correction in U.S. stocks could come much sooner than most predict. Momentum players who are driving the market could "pull the trigger relatively quickly," he says. He also observes that the charts of stocks favored by momentum investors, like Google, RIM, Apple and Amazon, look to be flattening out.
Overall, 2010 will not be one for the record books, as 2009 was. He’s looking at a more normal 5%-10% rate of return for global investors.
Here are Faber's views on other markets and asset classes:
Asia: "Longer term we'll have still favorable growth," he says. He thinks India and Japan both offer opportunities. In his eyes, this view gained even more credibility after they were not mentioned once during the Barron's round-table discussion.
Bonds: The bull market in Treasuries that lasted from 1980-2008 is a thing of the past. Near term: after a dismal 2009 the bond market could be in for a rebound. Longer term: look for exit opportunities in Treasuries.
Gold: Still a long-term buy.
Oil: Prices in the $80s make sense since the marginal cost to find a barrel is about $70. Longer term he expects prices to continue rising as demand increases from the developing world.
Agricultural commodities: In the short term, Faber's favorite commodity is wheat. He advises against buying the wheat ETFs because they're relatively expensive. Instead, play it through farm land or potash companies, he says.
Nothing lasts forever, though.
He's changed his mind after participating in this week's Barron's round-table discussion. "Everybody was looking for further gains in stocks," he tells Henry in this clip. That opinion is also reflected by Bloomberg’s latest investor survey, which registered its highest level of bullish sentiment since the survey began in 2007.
That overwhelming consensus worries Faber. He now thinks a correction in U.S. stocks could come much sooner than most predict. Momentum players who are driving the market could "pull the trigger relatively quickly," he says. He also observes that the charts of stocks favored by momentum investors, like Google, RIM, Apple and Amazon, look to be flattening out.
Overall, 2010 will not be one for the record books, as 2009 was. He’s looking at a more normal 5%-10% rate of return for global investors.
Here are Faber's views on other markets and asset classes:
Asia: "Longer term we'll have still favorable growth," he says. He thinks India and Japan both offer opportunities. In his eyes, this view gained even more credibility after they were not mentioned once during the Barron's round-table discussion.
Bonds: The bull market in Treasuries that lasted from 1980-2008 is a thing of the past. Near term: after a dismal 2009 the bond market could be in for a rebound. Longer term: look for exit opportunities in Treasuries.
Gold: Still a long-term buy.
Oil: Prices in the $80s make sense since the marginal cost to find a barrel is about $70. Longer term he expects prices to continue rising as demand increases from the developing world.
Agricultural commodities: In the short term, Faber's favorite commodity is wheat. He advises against buying the wheat ETFs because they're relatively expensive. Instead, play it through farm land or potash companies, he says.
分享集: 红股·拆细·回购（下） 股票回购大不同
股票回购就不同了。
请看附表“回购后”栏。一家公司每年最多可以回购总股数的10%，每年都可以进行。
回购后的股票有三种处理方式：
⑴ 把股票保留在公司里，叫Treasury Shares，好价时可以卖掉，盈利归公司，在计算每股净利时，需扣除回购股。
⑵ 把股票当股息分发给股东。
⑶ 从资本中勾销回购股。请看附表。此公司原本拥有6000万股，回购及加以勾销后，减至5400万股。股价、每股净利、股息、资产也相应的增加10%。
红股和拆细是增加股票数目，但没有增加股票的价值；回购是减少股票数目，目的在维持股价的稳定，因为股价跌得太低，向银行借钱买股的股东，其股票可能会被逼仓卖掉。另一方面，股票价值被严重低估，也可能引发敌意收购，使大股东失去控制权。
导致资金外流
投资者一定要知道：公司的钱是属于你的，利用公司的现金去回购股票，就是用你的钱去买股票，回购后把股票当股息分发给你，其实是把你的钱由公司的钱柜转到你的口袋里，跟发股息没有两样。
从公司的角度看，回购股票导致资金外流，用以发展业务的资金减少了，对公司不利。但是，公司如果资金过剩，而又没有扩展的必要（可能是产能未用尽），则利用现金回购股票，不失为充分利用资源的良策。
股票回购反映公司对前途的信心以及财务稳健，是好股的特征。
走正道创财富
企业惟有盈利不断上升，才能增加股票的价值，发红股、股票拆细和回购，都与公司的盈利无关。所以都无助于提高股票的价值。
红股、拆细和回购，都是在玩股票的把戏，跟公司的业务无关，投资者无需过分重视。
只有公司的盈利上升，股票价值才会上升。所以，与其把时间和精力化在红股、拆细、回购和猜测股价动向等与股票价值无关的事项上，倒不如化在研究公司的基本面上——公司业务有前途吗？盈利会上升吗？什么因素会影响公司的盈利？公司财务健全吗？能继续派发股息吗？董事有诚信吗？这些才是投资者应该关注的课题。
红股、拆细、回购、股价变动，与基本面无关，无需过分重视。倾全力研究公司基本面， 才是股票投资正道。
走正道，才有可能创富。
请看附表“回购后”栏。一家公司每年最多可以回购总股数的10%，每年都可以进行。
回购后的股票有三种处理方式：
⑴ 把股票保留在公司里，叫Treasury Shares，好价时可以卖掉，盈利归公司，在计算每股净利时，需扣除回购股。
⑵ 把股票当股息分发给股东。
⑶ 从资本中勾销回购股。请看附表。此公司原本拥有6000万股，回购及加以勾销后，减至5400万股。股价、每股净利、股息、资产也相应的增加10%。
红股和拆细是增加股票数目，但没有增加股票的价值；回购是减少股票数目，目的在维持股价的稳定，因为股价跌得太低，向银行借钱买股的股东，其股票可能会被逼仓卖掉。另一方面，股票价值被严重低估，也可能引发敌意收购，使大股东失去控制权。
导致资金外流
投资者一定要知道：公司的钱是属于你的，利用公司的现金去回购股票，就是用你的钱去买股票，回购后把股票当股息分发给你，其实是把你的钱由公司的钱柜转到你的口袋里，跟发股息没有两样。
从公司的角度看，回购股票导致资金外流，用以发展业务的资金减少了，对公司不利。但是，公司如果资金过剩，而又没有扩展的必要（可能是产能未用尽），则利用现金回购股票，不失为充分利用资源的良策。
股票回购反映公司对前途的信心以及财务稳健，是好股的特征。
走正道创财富
企业惟有盈利不断上升，才能增加股票的价值，发红股、股票拆细和回购，都与公司的盈利无关。所以都无助于提高股票的价值。
红股、拆细和回购，都是在玩股票的把戏，跟公司的业务无关，投资者无需过分重视。
只有公司的盈利上升，股票价值才会上升。所以，与其把时间和精力化在红股、拆细、回购和猜测股价动向等与股票价值无关的事项上，倒不如化在研究公司的基本面上——公司业务有前途吗？盈利会上升吗？什么因素会影响公司的盈利？公司财务健全吗？能继续派发股息吗？董事有诚信吗？这些才是投资者应该关注的课题。
红股、拆细、回购、股价变动，与基本面无关，无需过分重视。倾全力研究公司基本面， 才是股票投资正道。
走正道，才有可能创富。
Sunday, March 7, 2010
分享集:东方不败–棕油
世界人口68亿，每日三餐，无油不欢。
在世界植物油市场中，棕油在四十年中由区区的 4%，增至目前的30%，成就非凡。
若非棕油的崛起，世界目前可能面对食脂短缺，人人都要食贵油，而受打击最大的，将是占世界人口最多的第三世界的低收入者。
这是对棕油极尽污蔑能事的所谓环保分子，视若无睹的事实。
棕油之能在食脂市场，独领风骚，自有其别的油脂难以匹敌的优势。
作物优势
生产期长：种下后第3年结果，到第25年产果不绝，其中由第5至第20年产果尤丰。
其他如大豆、油菜、向日葵、花生，都是短期作物。
生产稳定。
极少疾病。
品质一致。
生命力强，油棕鲜有良莠不齐者。
技术先进。
天然油棕每公顷仅产果2.5至5公吨，经过品种改良，目前每公顷产果可高达30公吨，马来西亚在这方面的科研成绩斐然。
大马、印尼和巴布亚新几内亚，土地得天独厚，最适合种油棕。原产地的非洲无法比拟。
成本低。棕油的生产成本是植物油中最低的。
容易管理。适合大规模种植。
市场优势
需求跟着世界人口而增长。
用途日广。除了作为食油之外，在工业上的用途，越来越多。
世界越富有，消耗油脂越多。
价格不受经济强国操纵，主要市场是在人口稠密的中国、印度、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯。
可制生物燃油：187国签订的《京都协议》，要通过采用“生物燃油”，在2012年，将破坏臭氧层的氦气，降至比1990年低5.2%，以阻止地球升温。棕油是制造生物燃油的理想植物油。
油棕业挑战
●面对其他植物油的竞争，大豆油是主要对手。
●缺乏种植地，地价涨势凌厉，业者纷纷进军印尼。
●环保分子展开污蔑行动，图置棕油业于死地。
●人力短缺，收获机械化有极限。
●成本上升，尤其是肥料。
●价格波动激烈。原棕油由 2001年的每公吨234美元，到2008年3月的1,249美元，起落不定，目前约为760美元。
●美元波动大，影响收入。
●库存设备不足，曾有“库”满之患。
●油棕鲜果割下后，需立刻运往榨油厂，稍迟就影响油质油量。通常要有2万5000亩才可养一榨油厂，小园主无建厂能力。
●出售鲜果串(FFB)，得价较低，成本较高，故油棕业不利小园主。
结论
尽管面对挑战，油棕业优势多，仍然“占尽风情向小园”，独领风骚，成为“东方不败”。
买股票要买成长行业。农业成长缓慢，原非理想投资对象，但油棕是个异数。
吉隆甲洞（KLK，2445，主板种植股）、IOI（IOICORP，1961；主板种植股）的成长，跟其他行业股票相比，不遑多让，是为明证。
棕油股是“养老金”，投资组合的理想核心股。
上选为拥有庞大未种地库而又现金充沛的油棕股。格林尼（GNEALY，2372，主板种植股）符合此二条件，值得考虑。
在世界植物油市场中，棕油在四十年中由区区的 4%，增至目前的30%，成就非凡。
若非棕油的崛起，世界目前可能面对食脂短缺，人人都要食贵油，而受打击最大的，将是占世界人口最多的第三世界的低收入者。
这是对棕油极尽污蔑能事的所谓环保分子，视若无睹的事实。
棕油之能在食脂市场，独领风骚，自有其别的油脂难以匹敌的优势。
作物优势
生产期长：种下后第3年结果，到第25年产果不绝，其中由第5至第20年产果尤丰。
其他如大豆、油菜、向日葵、花生，都是短期作物。
生产稳定。
极少疾病。
品质一致。
生命力强，油棕鲜有良莠不齐者。
技术先进。
天然油棕每公顷仅产果2.5至5公吨，经过品种改良，目前每公顷产果可高达30公吨，马来西亚在这方面的科研成绩斐然。
大马、印尼和巴布亚新几内亚，土地得天独厚，最适合种油棕。原产地的非洲无法比拟。
成本低。棕油的生产成本是植物油中最低的。
容易管理。适合大规模种植。
市场优势
需求跟着世界人口而增长。
用途日广。除了作为食油之外，在工业上的用途，越来越多。
世界越富有，消耗油脂越多。
价格不受经济强国操纵，主要市场是在人口稠密的中国、印度、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯。
可制生物燃油：187国签订的《京都协议》，要通过采用“生物燃油”，在2012年，将破坏臭氧层的氦气，降至比1990年低5.2%，以阻止地球升温。棕油是制造生物燃油的理想植物油。
油棕业挑战
●面对其他植物油的竞争，大豆油是主要对手。
●缺乏种植地，地价涨势凌厉，业者纷纷进军印尼。
●环保分子展开污蔑行动，图置棕油业于死地。
●人力短缺，收获机械化有极限。
●成本上升，尤其是肥料。
●价格波动激烈。原棕油由 2001年的每公吨234美元，到2008年3月的1,249美元，起落不定，目前约为760美元。
●美元波动大，影响收入。
●库存设备不足，曾有“库”满之患。
●油棕鲜果割下后，需立刻运往榨油厂，稍迟就影响油质油量。通常要有2万5000亩才可养一榨油厂，小园主无建厂能力。
●出售鲜果串(FFB)，得价较低，成本较高，故油棕业不利小园主。
结论
尽管面对挑战，油棕业优势多，仍然“占尽风情向小园”，独领风骚，成为“东方不败”。
买股票要买成长行业。农业成长缓慢，原非理想投资对象，但油棕是个异数。
吉隆甲洞（KLK，2445，主板种植股）、IOI（IOICORP，1961；主板种植股）的成长，跟其他行业股票相比，不遑多让，是为明证。
棕油股是“养老金”，投资组合的理想核心股。
上选为拥有庞大未种地库而又现金充沛的油棕股。格林尼（GNEALY，2372，主板种植股）符合此二条件，值得考虑。
分享集:不动如山两年
出自《冷眼分享集》Aug 15th, 2009
假如你在今年初股市低潮时，买进一批股票，收藏至今，已有丰厚的盈利。
现在你面对一个抉择：
1. 现在就套利离场。
2. 继续投资下去。
假如你选择现在就套利，你的“纸上富贵”立刻化为现金，你算是真正赚到了，毕竟手中的一只鸟，胜过林中的十只。
问题是：在卖掉以后，你是否从此就离开股市？
这次的金融海啸，长达将近两年，其严重程度，牵连之广，甚于1998年的东南亚货币危机，作为股票投资者，你所蒙受的亏损，可能比1998年的货币危机更大，如今股市回弹数个月，可能还没有赚回亏损额，如果你套利后就金盘洗手，你如何能弥补你的损失，又如何能增加你的财富？
沉重创伤非一年可复原
假如你在套利后又以所得资金，买进另一批股票，此买进的，肯定也是已经上升了一大截的股票，若如此，你所面对的风险，不会比你紧握原有的股票更低。
既然如此，倒不如继续持有原来的投资组合更合算。
关键在于股市的涨势能否持续？
这个问题的答案，决定于经济的复苏，能持续多久？
过去每一轮经济或股市风暴显示：下跌的速度必然比上升的速度快－－最少快一倍。
上升如走楼梯，下跌如乘升降机。
此次金融海啸，全球经济受创之重，只有1930年的经济大萧条可与比拟。
为此沉重的创伤，绝非一年半载可以复原。
经济需三年才能复苏
我的猜度是最少要三年，才能康复。
为什么是三年？
理由是企业界在受到沉重打击之后，至今惊魂未定，虽然经济看起来已触底，但他们仍小心冀冀，不敢轻举妄动。
在第一年的复苏中，他们还是把时间花在观察经济动向，策划重振旗鼓，就好像意外跌进山谷的爬山者，在爬起身来之后，头脑还是昏昏沉沉，不辨方向，在一片茫然之下，自然不敢跨出一步，更遑论爬出谷底了。
所以，第一年的复苏，还是有许多不肯定性。就好像目前美国虽说“青芽”已露头角，但失业率仍高居不下，屋价仍未上升，经济的数字还是喜忧参半。
第二年，经济回升的脚步才正式跨出，企业界由犹豫不决，转为乐观积极，许多重振旗鼓的计划，才付诸于行动，效果也逐步显露出来。
第三年，经济的康复，已由“青芽”长成亭亭小树，人们也逐渐淡忘了金融海啸时悚目惊心的情况，一切该恢复常态了。
信心是股市支柱
目前仅回升了几个月的股市，到底只是个“熊市陷阱”，还是牛市初阶，谁也无法肯定，但有一点是相当肯定的：股市不可能回跌到今年二月至三月时的低水平。因为现在大家都知道，股价无论跌得多么低，最终仍会回弹，大家的信心已重新建立起来。
信心是股市的支柱，有了信心，股市不可能倒塌。
所以，与其套利离场，或是抢进杀出，倒不如紧握手中的既有股票，不动如山两年，以争取经济和股市复苏所带来的最大利益。
既然我认为经济要三年才能全面复苏，为什么我不主张股票投资期是三年，而是两年？理由是股市问题跑在经济前头六个月到一年。两年后的股价，实际上已反映了三年后经济全面复苏时的实现。
作为反向策略的信徒，我们应在经济状况最坏时进场，最佳时离场。
假如你在今年初股市低潮时，买进一批股票，收藏至今，已有丰厚的盈利。
现在你面对一个抉择：
1. 现在就套利离场。
2. 继续投资下去。
假如你选择现在就套利，你的“纸上富贵”立刻化为现金，你算是真正赚到了，毕竟手中的一只鸟，胜过林中的十只。
问题是：在卖掉以后，你是否从此就离开股市？
这次的金融海啸，长达将近两年，其严重程度，牵连之广，甚于1998年的东南亚货币危机，作为股票投资者，你所蒙受的亏损，可能比1998年的货币危机更大，如今股市回弹数个月，可能还没有赚回亏损额，如果你套利后就金盘洗手，你如何能弥补你的损失，又如何能增加你的财富？
沉重创伤非一年可复原
假如你在套利后又以所得资金，买进另一批股票，此买进的，肯定也是已经上升了一大截的股票，若如此，你所面对的风险，不会比你紧握原有的股票更低。
既然如此，倒不如继续持有原来的投资组合更合算。
关键在于股市的涨势能否持续？
这个问题的答案，决定于经济的复苏，能持续多久？
过去每一轮经济或股市风暴显示：下跌的速度必然比上升的速度快－－最少快一倍。
上升如走楼梯，下跌如乘升降机。
此次金融海啸，全球经济受创之重，只有1930年的经济大萧条可与比拟。
为此沉重的创伤，绝非一年半载可以复原。
经济需三年才能复苏
我的猜度是最少要三年，才能康复。
为什么是三年？
理由是企业界在受到沉重打击之后，至今惊魂未定，虽然经济看起来已触底，但他们仍小心冀冀，不敢轻举妄动。
在第一年的复苏中，他们还是把时间花在观察经济动向，策划重振旗鼓，就好像意外跌进山谷的爬山者，在爬起身来之后，头脑还是昏昏沉沉，不辨方向，在一片茫然之下，自然不敢跨出一步，更遑论爬出谷底了。
所以，第一年的复苏，还是有许多不肯定性。就好像目前美国虽说“青芽”已露头角，但失业率仍高居不下，屋价仍未上升，经济的数字还是喜忧参半。
第二年，经济回升的脚步才正式跨出，企业界由犹豫不决，转为乐观积极，许多重振旗鼓的计划，才付诸于行动，效果也逐步显露出来。
第三年，经济的康复，已由“青芽”长成亭亭小树，人们也逐渐淡忘了金融海啸时悚目惊心的情况，一切该恢复常态了。
信心是股市支柱
目前仅回升了几个月的股市，到底只是个“熊市陷阱”，还是牛市初阶，谁也无法肯定，但有一点是相当肯定的：股市不可能回跌到今年二月至三月时的低水平。因为现在大家都知道，股价无论跌得多么低，最终仍会回弹，大家的信心已重新建立起来。
信心是股市的支柱，有了信心，股市不可能倒塌。
所以，与其套利离场，或是抢进杀出，倒不如紧握手中的既有股票，不动如山两年，以争取经济和股市复苏所带来的最大利益。
既然我认为经济要三年才能全面复苏，为什么我不主张股票投资期是三年，而是两年？理由是股市问题跑在经济前头六个月到一年。两年后的股价，实际上已反映了三年后经济全面复苏时的实现。
作为反向策略的信徒，我们应在经济状况最坏时进场，最佳时离场。
牛市炒股为何不赚钱
股市投资既需要技巧，也是一场心理游戏。阻碍散户成功投资的是短线投资的陋习，和未被接受的价值投资理念。他们输的，不过是与内心顽固的自我对抗
2007年股市即将拉上帷幕，上证指数的涨幅在全球领先已无悬念。可令人困惑的是，仍有相当数量的投资者在抱怨2007年赚钱难、未赚钱，甚至还赔了钱。
面对如此走牛的A股市场，部分投资者难以把握好，确实是很遗憾的。一项网上调查显示，截至12月7日，有高达51.36%的被调查者没有获利，其中18.61%称年度亏损在20%到50%之间，有16.61%亏损在10%左右，2.44%亏损超过了50%。在年度获利的投资者中，有16.88%的投资收益率在20%至50%之间，13.51%获利10%左右，11%获利在50%至100%之间；只有7.26%的投资收益率在100%以上，成功跑赢大盘。
上述调查暴露出散户投资者炒股的软肋。假设这些投资者全年持有基金，收益情况肯定完全不一样。据不完全统计，偏股型基金、平衡型基金、指数型基金今年以来的平均净值增长率约为108%、102%、131%。换句话说，基金集体跑赢了大盘，而散户投资者却是“泪洒”牛市，与太多机会“擦肩而过”。可以断言，在机构投资者逐渐占主导的A股市场上，散户投资者将被越来越严重地边缘化，想最大化分享股市财富的难度越来越大。
散户投资者的失败，主要有两大原因。
其一，买卖操作相对频繁，短线投机是散户的一大陋习。
虽然股票交易印花税上调，引导投资者中长期持有股票。可散户一是喜欢追逐热点，二是缺乏持股信心，使得散户投资者的交易仍较为频繁。调查显示，只有13.63%的被调查者对重仓股持有12个月以上。就连风险较高的新股炒作，也开始由散户投资者唱主角。深交所的统计显示，8月份，机构投资者买入新股的比例仅为3.18%，而散户买入的比例高达96.82%。中国石油(31.39,-0.15,-0.48%,股票吧)的高开低走，套牢大批盲目参与的散户投资者，赶在上市首日参与的散户套牢近半。
其二，价值投资未被接受。
银行股、钢铁股的崛起，体现了价值投资的魅力，但不少散户投资者依然被题材炒作所迷惑。
华夏基金投资总监刘文功公开表示，“只要对中国股市增长有信心，就必须买中国的金融股。”从基金公司的持仓看，金融股是其主要看好的品种。相比之下，散户投资者对银行股的青睐程度，明显不及基金。在他们看来，银行股股性不活，缺乏上涨的想象力，投机价值更不及题材股、重组股。有的散户投资者买入银行股，但缺乏持股耐心，没有分享到上涨的财富效应。其实，只要看看汇丰控股的走势，以及中国经济增长的前景，就会明白银行股的潜力不容低估。如今已是132.60港元的汇丰控股，在1995年只是20港元左右。
买银行股的价值大于银行储蓄，但散户投资者缺少的就是银行储蓄般的稳健投资心态。
2007年股市即将拉上帷幕，上证指数的涨幅在全球领先已无悬念。可令人困惑的是，仍有相当数量的投资者在抱怨2007年赚钱难、未赚钱，甚至还赔了钱。
面对如此走牛的A股市场，部分投资者难以把握好，确实是很遗憾的。一项网上调查显示，截至12月7日，有高达51.36%的被调查者没有获利，其中18.61%称年度亏损在20%到50%之间，有16.61%亏损在10%左右，2.44%亏损超过了50%。在年度获利的投资者中，有16.88%的投资收益率在20%至50%之间，13.51%获利10%左右，11%获利在50%至100%之间；只有7.26%的投资收益率在100%以上，成功跑赢大盘。
上述调查暴露出散户投资者炒股的软肋。假设这些投资者全年持有基金，收益情况肯定完全不一样。据不完全统计，偏股型基金、平衡型基金、指数型基金今年以来的平均净值增长率约为108%、102%、131%。换句话说，基金集体跑赢了大盘，而散户投资者却是“泪洒”牛市，与太多机会“擦肩而过”。可以断言，在机构投资者逐渐占主导的A股市场上，散户投资者将被越来越严重地边缘化，想最大化分享股市财富的难度越来越大。
散户投资者的失败，主要有两大原因。
其一，买卖操作相对频繁，短线投机是散户的一大陋习。
虽然股票交易印花税上调，引导投资者中长期持有股票。可散户一是喜欢追逐热点，二是缺乏持股信心，使得散户投资者的交易仍较为频繁。调查显示，只有13.63%的被调查者对重仓股持有12个月以上。就连风险较高的新股炒作，也开始由散户投资者唱主角。深交所的统计显示，8月份，机构投资者买入新股的比例仅为3.18%，而散户买入的比例高达96.82%。中国石油(31.39,-0.15,-0.48%,股票吧)的高开低走，套牢大批盲目参与的散户投资者，赶在上市首日参与的散户套牢近半。
其二，价值投资未被接受。
银行股、钢铁股的崛起，体现了价值投资的魅力，但不少散户投资者依然被题材炒作所迷惑。
华夏基金投资总监刘文功公开表示，“只要对中国股市增长有信心，就必须买中国的金融股。”从基金公司的持仓看，金融股是其主要看好的品种。相比之下，散户投资者对银行股的青睐程度，明显不及基金。在他们看来，银行股股性不活，缺乏上涨的想象力，投机价值更不及题材股、重组股。有的散户投资者买入银行股，但缺乏持股耐心，没有分享到上涨的财富效应。其实，只要看看汇丰控股的走势，以及中国经济增长的前景，就会明白银行股的潜力不容低估。如今已是132.60港元的汇丰控股，在1995年只是20港元左右。
买银行股的价值大于银行储蓄，但散户投资者缺少的就是银行储蓄般的稳健投资心态。
牛市如何炒股？专家教你解“恨”三招
都说股民的脸与大盘息息相关：大盘一跌，脸就发青；大盘一涨，脸也红润。然而，也有例外：有时，大盘十分红火，个股牛气冲天，但仍有不少股民怨声载道，叫苦连天，不是自责，就是埋怨。
最典型的有“三恨”：
恨：踏不准节奏
即使在一轮大的牛市里，大盘也难免会出现震荡、回调。此时，最好的操作是“不操作”———拿住股票不放。但总有部分股民期望收益最大化，与大盘“跳”起了“交谊舞”。然而，大盘的“舞步”总是捉摸不透。
不会卖———重仓的股民不知道何时高抛。
大盘从去年10月触底反弹至今年8月见高3478点，涨幅十分可观。但在起涨阶段，有的股民以为指数已高，抛出了宝贵的筹码，早早地被赶了下来，以至于不得不在随后的日子里以更高的成本买回抛出的筹码，结果做了反差；在上涨后期，有的股民不知道何时高抛，在大盘涨了8个多月，指数翻了一倍还多时，仍奢望翻番后再翻番，未能及时“高抛”，错失减仓良机，结果在指数大幅下挫中“呛水”。
不会买———轻仓的股民不知道何时低吸。
大盘一路上涨，有的股民一路踏空，但当涨到3000多点的时候却忍不住买了不该买的股票；有些股民在七八月份大盘触顶前后顺利脱逃，有的还因此实现了“弯道超车”———投资收益由原来的落后大盘变成了超越大盘。但“弯道超车”后，当大盘再次“驶”入“直道”，欲二度发力时，却未能搭上大盘再次起动的顺风车———该买的没有买，“弯道”超车后的优势未能保持到最后，悔恨不已。
解“恨”方法：实践表明，在股市投资，踏不准节奏是必然的，踏准才是偶然的。当看不准方向，踏不准节奏时，要么以静制动不操作———踏不准就不踏；要么降低预期少奢望———哪怕“赚头”少一点，只要有正差，就应及时高抛(买入后)或回补(卖出后)。
恨：抓不住“牛股”
无论大盘处于什么点位，两市总会冒出不少“牛股”。投资者也希望“牛”归自己，“熊”归他人。但在两市1600多只股票里要精准地捕捉到其中为数不多的“牛股”却非易事，想要做到每次都是“牛”是自己的,“熊”是他人的，更是难上加难。
股民抓不住“牛股”，原因之一是不够果断。抓不住“牛股”的另一原因是缺乏耐心。如果对一时表现欠佳的股票有足够的耐心，能紧握不放，许多未来的“牛股”也不会从股民手中轻易溜走。骑也骑不牢，抓也抓不住，投资者当然只能望“牛”兴叹，悔恨连连。
解“恨”方法：一是一旦发现“牛股”出动，就要第一时间出击，胆要大，心要狠，切忌犹豫不决，患得患失；二是如果缺乏快速出击的本领，可以进行潜伏，抓住心目中的牛股“奉陪”到底；三要力戒“大钱赚不到，小钱眼不开”的错误做法———“大牛”抓不住，“小牛”也好嘛。
恨：“跑”不过指数
“牛市”炒股，投资者都希望能够“跑”赢指数，然而多年的炒股经验表明，要想“跑”赢指数，可谓十分不易。
投资者收益之所以赶不上指数涨幅，既有仓位方面的原因———指数涨时仓位轻，指数跌时仓位重；也有持仓结构方面的原因———持有的品种要么呆板，要么跟不上板块轮动节奏，总是慢半拍，错过投资获利的最佳时间；更有操作方面的原因———或涨时不卖、跌时不买，或追涨杀跌、做了反差，或频繁换股、白白为证券公司“打工”等。
解“恨”方法：没有十分的把握不轻易变动仓位比例，即使要“动”，也要“涨卖跌买”、高抛低吸；及时调整持仓结构，注意不同行业、盘子的股票有机搭配；在一轮明显的“牛市”行情里尽量减少操作，避免无谓的失误，还能少付些手续费；平常心看待指数涨跌、市值升降，做一名平和、理性而又幸福的股民
最典型的有“三恨”：
恨：踏不准节奏
即使在一轮大的牛市里，大盘也难免会出现震荡、回调。此时，最好的操作是“不操作”———拿住股票不放。但总有部分股民期望收益最大化，与大盘“跳”起了“交谊舞”。然而，大盘的“舞步”总是捉摸不透。
不会卖———重仓的股民不知道何时高抛。
大盘从去年10月触底反弹至今年8月见高3478点，涨幅十分可观。但在起涨阶段，有的股民以为指数已高，抛出了宝贵的筹码，早早地被赶了下来，以至于不得不在随后的日子里以更高的成本买回抛出的筹码，结果做了反差；在上涨后期，有的股民不知道何时高抛，在大盘涨了8个多月，指数翻了一倍还多时，仍奢望翻番后再翻番，未能及时“高抛”，错失减仓良机，结果在指数大幅下挫中“呛水”。
不会买———轻仓的股民不知道何时低吸。
大盘一路上涨，有的股民一路踏空，但当涨到3000多点的时候却忍不住买了不该买的股票；有些股民在七八月份大盘触顶前后顺利脱逃，有的还因此实现了“弯道超车”———投资收益由原来的落后大盘变成了超越大盘。但“弯道超车”后，当大盘再次“驶”入“直道”，欲二度发力时，却未能搭上大盘再次起动的顺风车———该买的没有买，“弯道”超车后的优势未能保持到最后，悔恨不已。
解“恨”方法：实践表明，在股市投资，踏不准节奏是必然的，踏准才是偶然的。当看不准方向，踏不准节奏时，要么以静制动不操作———踏不准就不踏；要么降低预期少奢望———哪怕“赚头”少一点，只要有正差，就应及时高抛(买入后)或回补(卖出后)。
恨：抓不住“牛股”
无论大盘处于什么点位，两市总会冒出不少“牛股”。投资者也希望“牛”归自己，“熊”归他人。但在两市1600多只股票里要精准地捕捉到其中为数不多的“牛股”却非易事，想要做到每次都是“牛”是自己的,“熊”是他人的，更是难上加难。
股民抓不住“牛股”，原因之一是不够果断。抓不住“牛股”的另一原因是缺乏耐心。如果对一时表现欠佳的股票有足够的耐心，能紧握不放，许多未来的“牛股”也不会从股民手中轻易溜走。骑也骑不牢，抓也抓不住，投资者当然只能望“牛”兴叹，悔恨连连。
解“恨”方法：一是一旦发现“牛股”出动，就要第一时间出击，胆要大，心要狠，切忌犹豫不决，患得患失；二是如果缺乏快速出击的本领，可以进行潜伏，抓住心目中的牛股“奉陪”到底；三要力戒“大钱赚不到，小钱眼不开”的错误做法———“大牛”抓不住，“小牛”也好嘛。
恨：“跑”不过指数
“牛市”炒股，投资者都希望能够“跑”赢指数，然而多年的炒股经验表明，要想“跑”赢指数，可谓十分不易。
投资者收益之所以赶不上指数涨幅，既有仓位方面的原因———指数涨时仓位轻，指数跌时仓位重；也有持仓结构方面的原因———持有的品种要么呆板，要么跟不上板块轮动节奏，总是慢半拍，错过投资获利的最佳时间；更有操作方面的原因———或涨时不卖、跌时不买，或追涨杀跌、做了反差，或频繁换股、白白为证券公司“打工”等。
解“恨”方法：没有十分的把握不轻易变动仓位比例，即使要“动”，也要“涨卖跌买”、高抛低吸；及时调整持仓结构，注意不同行业、盘子的股票有机搭配；在一轮明显的“牛市”行情里尽量减少操作，避免无谓的失误，还能少付些手续费；平常心看待指数涨跌、市值升降，做一名平和、理性而又幸福的股民
牛市和熊市各阶段特征
所谓"牛市"，也称多头市场，指市场行情普遍看涨，延续时间较长的大升市。所谓"熊市"，也称空头市场，指行情普遍看淡。延续时间相对较长的大跌中。
道·琼斯根据美国股市的经验数据。总结出牛市和熊市的不同市场特征，认为牛市和熊市可以各自分为三个不同期间 :
牛市第一期(瘦田无人耕)
与熊市第三期的一部分重合，往往是在市场最悲观的情况下出现的。大部分投资者对市场心灰意冷，即使市场出现好消息也无动于衷,很多人开始不计成本地抛出所有的股票。有远见的投资者则通过对各类经济指标和形势的分析、预期市场情况即将发生变化，开始逐步选择优质股买入。市场成交逐渐出现微量回升，经过一段时间后，许多股票已从盲目抛售者手中流到理性投资者手中。市场在回升过程中偶有回落，但每一次回落的低点都比上一次高，于是吸引新的投资人入市，整个市场交投开始活跃，这时候，上市公司的经营状况和公司业绩开始好转，盈利增加引起投资者的注意，进一步刺激人们入市的兴趣。
牛市第二期(期待业绩印证)
这时市况虽然明显好转、但熊市的惨跌使投资者心有余悸。中场出现一种非升非跌的僵持局面，但总的来说大市基调良好，股价力图上升。这段时间可维持数月甚于超过一年：主要视上次熊市造成的心理打击的严重程度而定。
牛市第三期(业绩兑现)
经过一段时间的徘徊后，股市成交量不断增加。越来越多的投资人进入市场。大市的每次回落不但不会使投资人退出市场，反而吸引更多的投资人加入。市场情绪高涨，充满乐观气氛。此外，公司利好的新闻也不断传出，例如盈利倍增、收购合并等。上市公司也趁机大举集资，或送红股或将股票拆细，以吸引中小投资者。在这一阶段的末期，市场投机气氛极浓，即使出现坏消息也会被作为投机热点炒作，变为利好消息。垃圾股、冷门股股价均大幅度上涨，而一些稳健的优质股则反而被漠视。同时，炒股席卷社会各个角落，各行各业、男女老幼均加入了抄股大军。当这种情况达到某个极点时，市场就会出现转折。
熊市第一期（反思)
其初段就是牛市第三期的未段，往往出现在市场投资气氛最高涨的情况下，这时市场绝对乐观，投资者对后市变化完全没有戒心。市场上真真假假的各种利好消息到处都是。公司的业绩和盈利达到不正常的高峰。不少企业在这段时期内加速扩张，收购合并的消息频传。正当绝大多数投资者疯狂沉迷于股市升势时，少数明智的投资者和个别投资大户已开始将资金逐步撤离或处于观望。因此，市场的交投虽然十分炽热，但已有逐渐降温的迹象。这时如果股价再进一步攀升，成交量却不能同步跟上的话，大跌就可能出现。在这个时期，当股价下跌时，许多人仍然认为这种下跌只是上升过程中的回调。其实，这是股中大跌的开始。
熊市第二期(草木皆兵)
这一阶段，股票市场、有风吹草动，就会触发"恐慌性抛售"，一方面市场上热点太多，想要买进的人反而因难以选择而退缩不前，处于观望。另一方面更多的人开始急于抛出。加剧股价急速下跌。在允许进行信用交易的市场中．从事买空交易的投机者遭受的打击更大，他们往往因偿还融入资金的压力而被迫抛售，于是股价越跌越急。经过一轮疯狂的抛售和股价急跌以后，投资者会觉得跌势有点过分。因为上市公司以及经济环境的现状尚未达到如此悲观的地步，于是市场会出现次较大的回升和反弹。这一段中期性反弹可能维持几个星期或者几个月，回升或反弹的幅度一般为整个市场总跌幅的三分之一至二分之一(参照过去从2100点跌到1300点的几次反弹)。
熊中第三期(等待业绩印证)
经过一段时间的中期性反弹以后，经济形势和上市公司的前景趋于恶化，公司业绩下降，财务困难。各种真假难辨的利空消息又接踵而至，对投资者信心造成进一步打击。这时整个股票市场弥漫着悲观气氛，股价继反弹后较大幅度下挫。
在熊市第三期中，股价持续下跌，但跌势没有加剧。
由于那些质量较差的股票已经在第一、第二期跌得差不多了，再跌的可能件已经不大，而这时由于市场信心崩溃，下跌的股票集中在业绩一向良好的蓝筹股和优质股上。这一阶段正好与牛市第一阶段的初段吻合，有远见和理智的投资者会认为这是最佳的吸纳机会，这时购入低价优质股，待大市回升后可获得丰厚回报。
一般来说，熊市经历的时间要比牛市短，大约只占牛市的三分之一至二分之一。不过每个熊市的具体时间都不尽相同，因市场和经济环境的差异会有较大的区别。回顾1993年到1997年这段时间，我国上海、深圳证券交易所经历了股价的大幅涨跌变化，就是一次完整的由牛转熊，再由熊转牛的周期性过程.
道·琼斯根据美国股市的经验数据。总结出牛市和熊市的不同市场特征，认为牛市和熊市可以各自分为三个不同期间 :
牛市第一期(瘦田无人耕)
与熊市第三期的一部分重合，往往是在市场最悲观的情况下出现的。大部分投资者对市场心灰意冷，即使市场出现好消息也无动于衷,很多人开始不计成本地抛出所有的股票。有远见的投资者则通过对各类经济指标和形势的分析、预期市场情况即将发生变化，开始逐步选择优质股买入。市场成交逐渐出现微量回升，经过一段时间后，许多股票已从盲目抛售者手中流到理性投资者手中。市场在回升过程中偶有回落，但每一次回落的低点都比上一次高，于是吸引新的投资人入市，整个市场交投开始活跃，这时候，上市公司的经营状况和公司业绩开始好转，盈利增加引起投资者的注意，进一步刺激人们入市的兴趣。
牛市第二期(期待业绩印证)
这时市况虽然明显好转、但熊市的惨跌使投资者心有余悸。中场出现一种非升非跌的僵持局面，但总的来说大市基调良好，股价力图上升。这段时间可维持数月甚于超过一年：主要视上次熊市造成的心理打击的严重程度而定。
牛市第三期(业绩兑现)
经过一段时间的徘徊后，股市成交量不断增加。越来越多的投资人进入市场。大市的每次回落不但不会使投资人退出市场，反而吸引更多的投资人加入。市场情绪高涨，充满乐观气氛。此外，公司利好的新闻也不断传出，例如盈利倍增、收购合并等。上市公司也趁机大举集资，或送红股或将股票拆细，以吸引中小投资者。在这一阶段的末期，市场投机气氛极浓，即使出现坏消息也会被作为投机热点炒作，变为利好消息。垃圾股、冷门股股价均大幅度上涨，而一些稳健的优质股则反而被漠视。同时，炒股席卷社会各个角落，各行各业、男女老幼均加入了抄股大军。当这种情况达到某个极点时，市场就会出现转折。
熊市第一期（反思)
其初段就是牛市第三期的未段，往往出现在市场投资气氛最高涨的情况下，这时市场绝对乐观，投资者对后市变化完全没有戒心。市场上真真假假的各种利好消息到处都是。公司的业绩和盈利达到不正常的高峰。不少企业在这段时期内加速扩张，收购合并的消息频传。正当绝大多数投资者疯狂沉迷于股市升势时，少数明智的投资者和个别投资大户已开始将资金逐步撤离或处于观望。因此，市场的交投虽然十分炽热，但已有逐渐降温的迹象。这时如果股价再进一步攀升，成交量却不能同步跟上的话，大跌就可能出现。在这个时期，当股价下跌时，许多人仍然认为这种下跌只是上升过程中的回调。其实，这是股中大跌的开始。
熊市第二期(草木皆兵)
这一阶段，股票市场、有风吹草动，就会触发"恐慌性抛售"，一方面市场上热点太多，想要买进的人反而因难以选择而退缩不前，处于观望。另一方面更多的人开始急于抛出。加剧股价急速下跌。在允许进行信用交易的市场中．从事买空交易的投机者遭受的打击更大，他们往往因偿还融入资金的压力而被迫抛售，于是股价越跌越急。经过一轮疯狂的抛售和股价急跌以后，投资者会觉得跌势有点过分。因为上市公司以及经济环境的现状尚未达到如此悲观的地步，于是市场会出现次较大的回升和反弹。这一段中期性反弹可能维持几个星期或者几个月，回升或反弹的幅度一般为整个市场总跌幅的三分之一至二分之一(参照过去从2100点跌到1300点的几次反弹)。
熊中第三期(等待业绩印证)
经过一段时间的中期性反弹以后，经济形势和上市公司的前景趋于恶化，公司业绩下降，财务困难。各种真假难辨的利空消息又接踵而至，对投资者信心造成进一步打击。这时整个股票市场弥漫着悲观气氛，股价继反弹后较大幅度下挫。
在熊市第三期中，股价持续下跌，但跌势没有加剧。
由于那些质量较差的股票已经在第一、第二期跌得差不多了，再跌的可能件已经不大，而这时由于市场信心崩溃，下跌的股票集中在业绩一向良好的蓝筹股和优质股上。这一阶段正好与牛市第一阶段的初段吻合，有远见和理智的投资者会认为这是最佳的吸纳机会，这时购入低价优质股，待大市回升后可获得丰厚回报。
一般来说，熊市经历的时间要比牛市短，大约只占牛市的三分之一至二分之一。不过每个熊市的具体时间都不尽相同，因市场和经济环境的差异会有较大的区别。回顾1993年到1997年这段时间，我国上海、深圳证券交易所经历了股价的大幅涨跌变化，就是一次完整的由牛转熊，再由熊转牛的周期性过程.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
曾渊沧@股友通讯录2010 年03 月
目前的国际经济形势应该是新世纪以来最复杂最难预测的一年。
2008 年的金融海啸，在美国政府大量印钞票，将利率降至近乎零的水平之下，形势总算稳住。
但是，大量的资金并没有投入实体经济。美国的银行取得美国政府的贷款后，并没有把这些钱借给工商界。这是为什么至今美国经济依然疲弱，通涨依然没出现的道理。那么，美国的银行取得政府的贷款后做什么？原来他们利用那笔钱在股票市场及各种各样的金融衍生工具上大炒特炒，还赚了大钱。
炒赢了，去年年底，高盛银行管理层发的花红竟然是历史新高。这是非常具讽刺性的新闻。美国的银行高盛拿公众的钱来炒股自肥已引起公愤。现在美国总统奥巴马已公开说要立法对付他们，不让他们分如此高的花红，要向银行徵收特别税，称之为金融海啸责任税。
不过，尽管美国经济仍未明显的复苏，美国联邦储备局还是决定加贴现率，做为试一试水温，测试迟些时候正式「退市」，即加息后的反应。什么时候加息？加多少？这是一个极大的难题。加息加得太早 加得太重，美国经济不但复苏无望，更会出现双底衰退。金融海啸第二波随时出现。加息加得太迟，加得太轻,必会引起超级通涨，通胀预期一出现也将是可怕的，必须下更重的药来治。
因此，美国的情况的确是复杂的。
欧洲的情况也不见得好。欧盟中的数个国家已经出了问题，这包括南欧诸国如希腊、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙，还有爱尔兰及一些东欧国家也正处於水深火热中。欧元区的国家更糟糕，他们的政府已经没有印钞票的权力，欧元的发行由欧元区的中央银行处理，因此希腊政府面对财政赤字却不能学美国印钞票应急。怎么办？只能借，发行国库债券借。但是，有了冰岛政府宣布破产赖账不还的先例，谁敢借钱给希腊？还有西班牙、意大利……..欧盟中有那么多穷国，富国只有一个，即德国。德国能帮助多少个穷国？目前，一些国际级的大鳄对冲基金已经磨刀利利地准备狙击欧元，欧洲随时爆发1997 年式的金融风暴。
看来，全世界只有中国一枝独秀。去年经济增长率达8.7%，成功「保八」, 但是, 经济发展快带来楼价飞升, 影响民生, 导至许多想买楼的人心生怨气。为了平息怨气，中国政府不得不做一些事来打压楼价。但是，打压楼价又恐怕会打击整体消费，消费如果不振，中国经济也是非常危险的。去年，中国的出口实际上是大幅下跌了。欧美地区经济仍未复苏，出口难以增长。在出口萎缩的情况之下，中国政府只好努力推动内部消费 ，鼓励消费，津贴农民买车买电器………..
楼价上升，股价上升是消费的动力。一旦楼市，股市逆转，消费也会逆转，情况就会很糟糕。
因此，中国政府现在也是摸着石头过河，一步一 惊心。
世界三大经济板块的问题都很复杂。因此，今年全球的金融市场的波动将会是非常激烈的。
投资者会一下子乐观，一下子悲观。金融市场也就随着投资者的心情的变化而波动。
但是，整体而言， 我还是乐观的。大家可以尽量利用这大起大跌的波动「跑多两转」。在调整初期减持股票然后再趁低买回。当然，你也可以静观其变，只要你在去年3 月底依照我的建议入市，现在也可以不理这些上上下下的调整。
2008 年的金融海啸，在美国政府大量印钞票，将利率降至近乎零的水平之下，形势总算稳住。
但是，大量的资金并没有投入实体经济。美国的银行取得美国政府的贷款后，并没有把这些钱借给工商界。这是为什么至今美国经济依然疲弱，通涨依然没出现的道理。那么，美国的银行取得政府的贷款后做什么？原来他们利用那笔钱在股票市场及各种各样的金融衍生工具上大炒特炒，还赚了大钱。
炒赢了，去年年底，高盛银行管理层发的花红竟然是历史新高。这是非常具讽刺性的新闻。美国的银行高盛拿公众的钱来炒股自肥已引起公愤。现在美国总统奥巴马已公开说要立法对付他们，不让他们分如此高的花红，要向银行徵收特别税，称之为金融海啸责任税。
不过，尽管美国经济仍未明显的复苏，美国联邦储备局还是决定加贴现率，做为试一试水温，测试迟些时候正式「退市」，即加息后的反应。什么时候加息？加多少？这是一个极大的难题。加息加得太早 加得太重，美国经济不但复苏无望，更会出现双底衰退。金融海啸第二波随时出现。加息加得太迟，加得太轻,必会引起超级通涨，通胀预期一出现也将是可怕的，必须下更重的药来治。
因此，美国的情况的确是复杂的。
欧洲的情况也不见得好。欧盟中的数个国家已经出了问题，这包括南欧诸国如希腊、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙，还有爱尔兰及一些东欧国家也正处於水深火热中。欧元区的国家更糟糕，他们的政府已经没有印钞票的权力，欧元的发行由欧元区的中央银行处理，因此希腊政府面对财政赤字却不能学美国印钞票应急。怎么办？只能借，发行国库债券借。但是，有了冰岛政府宣布破产赖账不还的先例，谁敢借钱给希腊？还有西班牙、意大利……..欧盟中有那么多穷国，富国只有一个，即德国。德国能帮助多少个穷国？目前，一些国际级的大鳄对冲基金已经磨刀利利地准备狙击欧元，欧洲随时爆发1997 年式的金融风暴。
看来，全世界只有中国一枝独秀。去年经济增长率达8.7%，成功「保八」, 但是, 经济发展快带来楼价飞升, 影响民生, 导至许多想买楼的人心生怨气。为了平息怨气，中国政府不得不做一些事来打压楼价。但是，打压楼价又恐怕会打击整体消费，消费如果不振，中国经济也是非常危险的。去年，中国的出口实际上是大幅下跌了。欧美地区经济仍未复苏，出口难以增长。在出口萎缩的情况之下，中国政府只好努力推动内部消费 ，鼓励消费，津贴农民买车买电器………..
楼价上升，股价上升是消费的动力。一旦楼市，股市逆转，消费也会逆转，情况就会很糟糕。
因此，中国政府现在也是摸着石头过河，一步一 惊心。
世界三大经济板块的问题都很复杂。因此，今年全球的金融市场的波动将会是非常激烈的。
投资者会一下子乐观，一下子悲观。金融市场也就随着投资者的心情的变化而波动。
但是，整体而言， 我还是乐观的。大家可以尽量利用这大起大跌的波动「跑多两转」。在调整初期减持股票然后再趁低买回。当然，你也可以静观其变，只要你在去年3 月底依照我的建议入市，现在也可以不理这些上上下下的调整。
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
The Oracle's Tips for the Rest of Us
Every few years, critics say Warren Buffett has lost his touch. He's too old and too old-fashioned, they claim. He doesn't get it anymore. This time he's wrong.
It happened during the dotcom bubble, when Mr. Buffett was mocked for refusing to join the party. And it happened again last year. As the Dow tumbled below 7,000, Mr. Buffett came under fire for having jumped into the crisis too early and too boldly, making big bets on Goldman Sachs and General Electric during the fall of 2008, and urging the public to plunge into shares.
Now it's time for those critics to sit down for their traditional three course meal: humble pie, their own words and crow.
On Saturday, Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported that net earnings rocketed 61% last year to $5,193 per share, while book value jumped 20% to a record high. Berkshire's Class A shares, which slumped to nearly $70,000 last year, have rebounded to $120,000.
Those bets on GE and Goldman? They've made billions so far. And anyone who took Mr. Buffett's advice and invested in the stock market in October 2008, even through a simple index fund, is up about 25%.
This is nothing new, of course. Anyone who held a $10,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway at the start of 1965 has about $80 million today.
How does he do it? Mr. Buffett explained his beliefs to new investors in his letter to stockholders Saturday:
Stay liquid.
"We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers," he wrote. "We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses."
Buy when everyone else is selling.
"We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend ... . Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."
Don't buy when everyone else is buying.
"Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance," Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
"In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business -- through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market -- and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two."
Don't get suckered by big growth stories. Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger "avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be."
Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. "Dramatic growth" doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
Understand what you own.
"Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us," Mr. Buffett wrote.
"We want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it's one that follows policies with which they concur."
Defense beats offense.
"Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that's likely to continue." All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
It happened during the dotcom bubble, when Mr. Buffett was mocked for refusing to join the party. And it happened again last year. As the Dow tumbled below 7,000, Mr. Buffett came under fire for having jumped into the crisis too early and too boldly, making big bets on Goldman Sachs and General Electric during the fall of 2008, and urging the public to plunge into shares.
Now it's time for those critics to sit down for their traditional three course meal: humble pie, their own words and crow.
On Saturday, Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported that net earnings rocketed 61% last year to $5,193 per share, while book value jumped 20% to a record high. Berkshire's Class A shares, which slumped to nearly $70,000 last year, have rebounded to $120,000.
Those bets on GE and Goldman? They've made billions so far. And anyone who took Mr. Buffett's advice and invested in the stock market in October 2008, even through a simple index fund, is up about 25%.
This is nothing new, of course. Anyone who held a $10,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway at the start of 1965 has about $80 million today.
How does he do it? Mr. Buffett explained his beliefs to new investors in his letter to stockholders Saturday:
Stay liquid.
"We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers," he wrote. "We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses."
Buy when everyone else is selling.
"We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend ... . Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble."
Don't buy when everyone else is buying.
"Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance," Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
Value, value, value.
"In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business -- through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market -- and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two."
Don't get suckered by big growth stories. Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger "avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be."
Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. "Dramatic growth" doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
Understand what you own.
"Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us," Mr. Buffett wrote.
"We want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it's one that follows policies with which they concur."
Defense beats offense.
"Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that's likely to continue." All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
Deflation Is Coming and There's Nothing Bernanke Can Do About It, Says Robert Prechter
Contrary to popular belief, noted technical analyst Robert Prechter says the extraordinary action taken by the Federal Reserve to bail out the economy will not lead to runaway inflation.
"Deflation is gaining the upper hand very, very slowly, but it's happening," Prechter the founder of Elliott Wave International tells Tech Ticker. Of course, as anyone familiar with his work knows, he's been saying this for years.
Why should we believe him now?
For the first time since 1982 core inflation fell in January as measured by the consumer price index. Prechter says it's even more noteworthy that it's happening "in the face of this tremendous amount of stimulus...from the government and a real attempt at stimulus from the central bank."
Prechter describes the forces of deflation as a "socio-nomic" shift in social mood that will prevent Federal Reserve Chairman from printing too much money. "At some point, the voters - as you can already see from the Tea Parties - are going to start saying we've had enough" with government spending and bailouts.
"Deflation is gaining the upper hand very, very slowly, but it's happening," Prechter the founder of Elliott Wave International tells Tech Ticker. Of course, as anyone familiar with his work knows, he's been saying this for years.
Why should we believe him now?
For the first time since 1982 core inflation fell in January as measured by the consumer price index. Prechter says it's even more noteworthy that it's happening "in the face of this tremendous amount of stimulus...from the government and a real attempt at stimulus from the central bank."
Prechter describes the forces of deflation as a "socio-nomic" shift in social mood that will prevent Federal Reserve Chairman from printing too much money. "At some point, the voters - as you can already see from the Tea Parties - are going to start saying we've had enough" with government spending and bailouts.
Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time
In late February last year, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts" and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range. That prediction came to pass. Prechter then urged investors to "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."
With Prechter firmly back in familiar bearish territory, he joined Aaron and Henry again, armed with scary charts that forecast an imminent "grand, super cycle top" and collapse, mirroring the decline after the 1929 crash. A firm believer in deflation on the horizon, Prechter sees commodity prices falling this year into next.
Prechter admits he hasn't always been right. "The disinflationary period lasted longer than I thought," he confesses. But, this time it's different, he promises.
With Prechter firmly back in familiar bearish territory, he joined Aaron and Henry again, armed with scary charts that forecast an imminent "grand, super cycle top" and collapse, mirroring the decline after the 1929 crash. A firm believer in deflation on the horizon, Prechter sees commodity prices falling this year into next.
Prechter admits he hasn't always been right. "The disinflationary period lasted longer than I thought," he confesses. But, this time it's different, he promises.
Bullish a Year Ago, Robert Prechter Now Sees "the Biggest Bubble in History"
In February 2009, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International predicted a market rally that would be "sharp and scary for anyone who is short."
In recent months, Prechter returned to more familiar territory, declaring here in November the market was in a "topping area."
A few weeks ago, the veteran market watcher told the Society of Technical Analysts in London that a "grand, super-cycle top" is at hand, The WSJ reported.
"What has happened is a complete change in psychology from extreme negativity [a year ago] to extreme optimism" heading into the market's recent top in January, Prechter says.
Among the many sentiment indicators he watched, Prechter cited the very low levels of cash at mutual funds, which is approaching levels seen near major tops in 1973, 2000 and 2007.
"Nobody should be taking risk right now. This is a time to be safe," he says.
But considering U.S. equity funds suffered about $46 billion of outflows from August to December 2009 while bond funds took in about $198 billion, according to ICI, aren't investors already playing it safe -- a bullish contrarian signal?
"The individual investor has been more or less abandoning stocks" and buying bond funds, Prechter concedes. "I think that is going from the frying pan into the fire. The bond market is the biggest bubble in the history of the world. "
Corporate debt, municipal debt, mortgages and consumer loans will all suffer in the great deflation Prechter believes is already underway, as detailed in his book Conquer the Crash.
So is there any way for investors to protect themselves from the carnage? Check the accompanying video for Prechter's recommendations.
In recent months, Prechter returned to more familiar territory, declaring here in November the market was in a "topping area."
A few weeks ago, the veteran market watcher told the Society of Technical Analysts in London that a "grand, super-cycle top" is at hand, The WSJ reported.
"What has happened is a complete change in psychology from extreme negativity [a year ago] to extreme optimism" heading into the market's recent top in January, Prechter says.
Among the many sentiment indicators he watched, Prechter cited the very low levels of cash at mutual funds, which is approaching levels seen near major tops in 1973, 2000 and 2007.
"Nobody should be taking risk right now. This is a time to be safe," he says.
But considering U.S. equity funds suffered about $46 billion of outflows from August to December 2009 while bond funds took in about $198 billion, according to ICI, aren't investors already playing it safe -- a bullish contrarian signal?
"The individual investor has been more or less abandoning stocks" and buying bond funds, Prechter concedes. "I think that is going from the frying pan into the fire. The bond market is the biggest bubble in the history of the world. "
Corporate debt, municipal debt, mortgages and consumer loans will all suffer in the great deflation Prechter believes is already underway, as detailed in his book Conquer the Crash.
So is there any way for investors to protect themselves from the carnage? Check the accompanying video for Prechter's recommendations.
Preparing for the Inevitable Bursting Bubble
Financial bubbles are a way of life now. They can upend your industry, send your portfolio into spasms and leave you with whiplash. And then, once you've recovered, the next one will hit.
Or so you might think, as a veteran of two gut-wrenching market declines and a housing bubble over the last decade.
There's plenty of reason to expect more surprises, given the number of hedge funds moving large amounts of money quickly around the world and the big banks making their own trades.
Individuals, as always, may be tempted to make their own financial bets, too. Last time, they bought overpriced homes with too much borrowed money. Next time, who knows what the bubble will be? And that's the problem, as it always is. How do you identify the next thing that will pop? Is it China? Or Greece? Or Treasury bonds? It is difficult to predict and make the right defensive (or offensive) moves at the correct moment to save or make money.
Still, if you want to better insulate yourself from bubbles -- however often they may inflate -- there are plenty of things you can do. Your debt levels matter, and you may want to consider a more flexible investment strategy. But perhaps most important, this is a mental exercise that begins and ends with an honest assessment of your long-term goals and how you handle the emotional jolts that come from the bubbles that burst along the way.
Fixed Expenses
Start with the basics. The less you have to pay toward monthly obligations, the better off you are, and that's especially true at a time of economic disruption. You certainly wouldn't want any bills increasing, so now's a good time to refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage.
Whittle down student loan and credit card debt, too, and pay cash for your car if possible. "Flexibility is priceless in a time of panic," said Lucas Hail, a financial planner with Foster & Motley in Cincinnati.
Self-Reliance
Then take a hard look at how much you should rely on promises from the government. Social Security and Medicare may not fit the traditional definition of bubbles, but that hasn't stopped Rick Brooks from advising his financial planning clients to expect less from both programs. "Something that is not sustainable will not continue. It just can't," he said of Medicare.
Mr. Brooks, the vice president for investment management with Blankinship & Foster in Solana Beach, Calif., said anyone under 50 should assume that Medicare will look nothing like it does now and examine private health insurance premiums for guidance as to what may need to be spent on health care in retirement. Meanwhile, the firm advises current retirees to assume a 20 percent cut in Social Security benefits at some point.
Bedda D'Angelo, president of Fiduciary Solutions in Durham, N.C., has an equally stark outlook on long-term employment risk. If there are two adults in the household, your goal should probably be to have two incomes instead of one. "I do believe that unemployment is inevitable," she said, adding that people who think they are going to retire at 65 should save for retirement as if they will be forced out of the work force in their mid-50s.
Portfolio Tactics
Perhaps you did what you thought you were supposed to during the last decade. You got religion and stopped trading stocks. Then, you split your assets among various low-cost mutual funds and added money regularly. And the results weren't quite what you hoped.
Tempted to make big bets on emerging markets or short Treasury bills? You've landed in the middle of the debate between those who favor a more passive asset allocation and those who prefer something called tactical allocation.
The first camp sets up a practical mix of investments, according to a target level of risk, and then readjusts back to that mix every year or so.
They frown on the hubris of the tactical practitioners. To make a tactical approach work, they note, you need to know what the right signals will be to buy and sell everything from stocks to gold, during every future market cycle. Then, these tacticians need to have the discipline to act each and every time. This is extraordinarily hard.
The tacticians, however, believe they have no choice. "What consumers need to know is that no matter how comforting it is to believe a formulaic approach or prepackaged investment product will allow them to put their financial future on autopilot, our current and future financial environment will require advice, diligence, education and responsiveness, which takes into account strategic consideration of geopolitical and economic relationships," as Ryan Darwish, a financial planner in Eugene, Ore., put it to me this week.
Mr. Darwish scoffed at the notion of mere bubbles and said he thought that more fundamental and far-reaching shifts were under way, like the transfer of economic power from the United States to China and other nations.
A growing number of financial planners are embracing a middle, more measured approach: If diversification across stocks, bonds and other asset classes has proved to be a good thing in most investing environments, why not diversification around investment approaches?
"I am not a financial genius, but the geniuses are even worse off because they're anchored on one philosophy," said David O'Brien, a financial planner in Midlothian, Va. So he and a growing number of his peers have added some strategies to their baseline portfolios aimed at losing less during bubbles while still gaining in better times. "We're not trying to shoot for the moon," he added.
These tactics can include managed futures, absolute return funds, merger arbitrage and other approaches that will get their own column someday.
The embrace of all this even led one investment professional I spoke with this week to express the ultimate sacrilege: It really is different this time.
Thomas C. Meyer of Meyer Capital Group in Marlton, N.J., noted that many of these alternative strategies were not even available in mutual-fund form three to four years ago. So that's different. He's now putting 30 percent of his clients' equity portfolios into such investments.
The big change, however, is that the baby boomer money is getting older. People are further along in their careers than they were during the market crash in 1987, and they can't rely on pensions as so many more near retirees could in the 1980s (while shrugging off stock market volatility). And the boomers don't have as much time to make up lost ground, especially if they're already retired.
"Losing less means a lot right now," Mr. Meyer said. "So we want to suck volatility out where we can."
Matter of the Mind
But can you live with less volatility -- and the permanent end of occasional portfoliowide returns in the teens or higher? Markets run on greed and fear; bubbles expand and deflate thanks to outsize versions of each. One of the few things you can predict about bubbles is that they will test your conviction on where you sit along the fear-greed continuum.
And once they pop, you'll know a bit more about how your mind works than you did before.
This last downturn was severe enough that about 10 percent of Steven A. Weydert's clients realized that they had overestimated their own risk tolerance. "Ideally, with an asset allocation, you never want to look back and say you're sorry," said Mr. Weydert of Bowyer, Weydert Wealth Planning Partners in Park Ridge, Ill.
So rather than trying to predict the number and type of bubbles, it may make more sense to look inward when trying to predict the future. Bob Goldman, a financial planner in Sausalito, Calif., said that clients often looked at him blankly when he asked them what it was they imagined for themselves in the future. Sometimes, they need to go home and figure out what sort of life it is that they're saving for -- and how much (or little) it might cost.
"People come in and talk about how we all know that inflation is going to explode next year," Mr. Goldman said. "Well, we don't all know that. We don't know anything. But we can know something about our own lives, and there is a person we can talk to about that. A person in the mirror."
Or so you might think, as a veteran of two gut-wrenching market declines and a housing bubble over the last decade.
There's plenty of reason to expect more surprises, given the number of hedge funds moving large amounts of money quickly around the world and the big banks making their own trades.
Individuals, as always, may be tempted to make their own financial bets, too. Last time, they bought overpriced homes with too much borrowed money. Next time, who knows what the bubble will be? And that's the problem, as it always is. How do you identify the next thing that will pop? Is it China? Or Greece? Or Treasury bonds? It is difficult to predict and make the right defensive (or offensive) moves at the correct moment to save or make money.
Still, if you want to better insulate yourself from bubbles -- however often they may inflate -- there are plenty of things you can do. Your debt levels matter, and you may want to consider a more flexible investment strategy. But perhaps most important, this is a mental exercise that begins and ends with an honest assessment of your long-term goals and how you handle the emotional jolts that come from the bubbles that burst along the way.
Fixed Expenses
Start with the basics. The less you have to pay toward monthly obligations, the better off you are, and that's especially true at a time of economic disruption. You certainly wouldn't want any bills increasing, so now's a good time to refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage.
Whittle down student loan and credit card debt, too, and pay cash for your car if possible. "Flexibility is priceless in a time of panic," said Lucas Hail, a financial planner with Foster & Motley in Cincinnati.
Self-Reliance
Then take a hard look at how much you should rely on promises from the government. Social Security and Medicare may not fit the traditional definition of bubbles, but that hasn't stopped Rick Brooks from advising his financial planning clients to expect less from both programs. "Something that is not sustainable will not continue. It just can't," he said of Medicare.
Mr. Brooks, the vice president for investment management with Blankinship & Foster in Solana Beach, Calif., said anyone under 50 should assume that Medicare will look nothing like it does now and examine private health insurance premiums for guidance as to what may need to be spent on health care in retirement. Meanwhile, the firm advises current retirees to assume a 20 percent cut in Social Security benefits at some point.
Bedda D'Angelo, president of Fiduciary Solutions in Durham, N.C., has an equally stark outlook on long-term employment risk. If there are two adults in the household, your goal should probably be to have two incomes instead of one. "I do believe that unemployment is inevitable," she said, adding that people who think they are going to retire at 65 should save for retirement as if they will be forced out of the work force in their mid-50s.
Portfolio Tactics
Perhaps you did what you thought you were supposed to during the last decade. You got religion and stopped trading stocks. Then, you split your assets among various low-cost mutual funds and added money regularly. And the results weren't quite what you hoped.
Tempted to make big bets on emerging markets or short Treasury bills? You've landed in the middle of the debate between those who favor a more passive asset allocation and those who prefer something called tactical allocation.
The first camp sets up a practical mix of investments, according to a target level of risk, and then readjusts back to that mix every year or so.
They frown on the hubris of the tactical practitioners. To make a tactical approach work, they note, you need to know what the right signals will be to buy and sell everything from stocks to gold, during every future market cycle. Then, these tacticians need to have the discipline to act each and every time. This is extraordinarily hard.
The tacticians, however, believe they have no choice. "What consumers need to know is that no matter how comforting it is to believe a formulaic approach or prepackaged investment product will allow them to put their financial future on autopilot, our current and future financial environment will require advice, diligence, education and responsiveness, which takes into account strategic consideration of geopolitical and economic relationships," as Ryan Darwish, a financial planner in Eugene, Ore., put it to me this week.
Mr. Darwish scoffed at the notion of mere bubbles and said he thought that more fundamental and far-reaching shifts were under way, like the transfer of economic power from the United States to China and other nations.
A growing number of financial planners are embracing a middle, more measured approach: If diversification across stocks, bonds and other asset classes has proved to be a good thing in most investing environments, why not diversification around investment approaches?
"I am not a financial genius, but the geniuses are even worse off because they're anchored on one philosophy," said David O'Brien, a financial planner in Midlothian, Va. So he and a growing number of his peers have added some strategies to their baseline portfolios aimed at losing less during bubbles while still gaining in better times. "We're not trying to shoot for the moon," he added.
These tactics can include managed futures, absolute return funds, merger arbitrage and other approaches that will get their own column someday.
The embrace of all this even led one investment professional I spoke with this week to express the ultimate sacrilege: It really is different this time.
Thomas C. Meyer of Meyer Capital Group in Marlton, N.J., noted that many of these alternative strategies were not even available in mutual-fund form three to four years ago. So that's different. He's now putting 30 percent of his clients' equity portfolios into such investments.
The big change, however, is that the baby boomer money is getting older. People are further along in their careers than they were during the market crash in 1987, and they can't rely on pensions as so many more near retirees could in the 1980s (while shrugging off stock market volatility). And the boomers don't have as much time to make up lost ground, especially if they're already retired.
"Losing less means a lot right now," Mr. Meyer said. "So we want to suck volatility out where we can."
Matter of the Mind
But can you live with less volatility -- and the permanent end of occasional portfoliowide returns in the teens or higher? Markets run on greed and fear; bubbles expand and deflate thanks to outsize versions of each. One of the few things you can predict about bubbles is that they will test your conviction on where you sit along the fear-greed continuum.
And once they pop, you'll know a bit more about how your mind works than you did before.
This last downturn was severe enough that about 10 percent of Steven A. Weydert's clients realized that they had overestimated their own risk tolerance. "Ideally, with an asset allocation, you never want to look back and say you're sorry," said Mr. Weydert of Bowyer, Weydert Wealth Planning Partners in Park Ridge, Ill.
So rather than trying to predict the number and type of bubbles, it may make more sense to look inward when trying to predict the future. Bob Goldman, a financial planner in Sausalito, Calif., said that clients often looked at him blankly when he asked them what it was they imagined for themselves in the future. Sometimes, they need to go home and figure out what sort of life it is that they're saving for -- and how much (or little) it might cost.
"People come in and talk about how we all know that inflation is going to explode next year," Mr. Goldman said. "Well, we don't all know that. We don't know anything. But we can know something about our own lives, and there is a person we can talk to about that. A person in the mirror."
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