美国“股神”沃伦•巴菲特9日在接受美国CNBC电视台采访时表示，美国经济已“坠下悬崖”。但他对长期的美国经济前景仍保持乐观。
他认为，恢复民众对美国银行系统的信心对经济复苏至关重要。美国的绝大多数银行资产状况尚好，银行系统绝大部分的问题可以自愈。巴菲特称，美国失业率还将进一步恶化。但他表示，尽管美国经济无法立即回升，但“五年后，我保证整体经济运作情况会相当好，因为美国拥有人类所能创造出来的最好经济机制。”巴菲特还赞扬了美联储主席伯南克和官方机构刺激经济的举措。不过他表示，美国经济还没到转折点。
他提醒投资者，现行经济刺激政策的一个可能恶果是未来的通货膨胀，而且可能将超过上世纪70年代晚期的通胀水平，但这是美国人为经济复苏而不得不付出的代价。他说：“我相信经济刺激措施有可能引发通货膨胀，毕竟在经济体系中没有免费午餐。”巴菲特指出，应让即将倒闭的银行倒闭，但“对银行业丧失信心是相当愚蠢的，因为我们有存款保险等防护机制”。巴菲特说，他并不会为自己在去年10月17日公开在《纽约时报》发表公开信，鼓励投资者买进美国股票而道歉。不过，他表示，如果他能晚几个月发表那一封信似乎更好。去年10月17日至今，道琼斯指数跌幅已经超过25%。巴菲特称，从长期的角度而言，他坚信持有股票的收益要好于那些所谓的安全投资。“10年过后，证券投资的收益要比美国国债好得多。”
Thursday, March 12, 2009
格雷厄姆-多德都市的超级投资者们——巴菲特
１、格雷厄姆与多德追求“价值远超过价格的安全保障”，这种证券分析方法是否已经过时?
２、巴菲特和查里的投资理念来自哪里？他们是否是来自于格雷厄姆智力家族的成员？
３、格雷厄姆提供的是投资的智力理论和应具备的精神状态，而不仅仅是分析方法
再读一下，或许认识更深一些，或许就象巴菲特再这篇演讲中说的，在读了格雷厄姆的书后你顿悟了
１９８４年在庆祝格雷罕姆与多德合著的《证券分析》发行５０周年大会上，巴菲特进行了一次题为“格雷厄姆-多德都市的超级投资者们” (The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville)”的演讲，在他演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力。
格雷厄姆与多德追求“价值远超过价格的安全保障”，这种证券分析方法是否已经过时?目前许多撰写教科书的教授认为如此。他们认为，股票市场是有效率的市场；换言之，股票价格已经充分反应了公司一切己知的事实以及整体经济情况：这些理论家认为，市场上没有价格偏低的股票，因为聪明的证券分析师将运用全部的既有资讯，以确保适当的价格。投资者能经年累月地击败市场，纯粹是运气使然。“如果价格完全反应既有的资讯，则这类的投资技巧将不存在。”
来自“格雷厄姆一多德都市”的投资者所具备的共同智力结构是：他们探索企业的价值与该企业市场价格之间的差异。事实上，他们利用其间的差异，却不在意效率市场理论家所关心的问题：股票究竟在星期一或星期—：买进，或是在一月份或七月份买进……。当企业家买进某家公司时——这正是格雷厄姆一多德都市的投资者透过上市股票所从事的行为——我怀疑有多少人会在意交易必须发生于某个月份或某个星期的第一天。如果企业的买进交易发生在星期一或星期五没有任何差别，则我无法了解学术界人士为何要花费大量的时间和精力，探讨代表该企业部分股权的交易发生时的差异。毋庸多说，格雷厄姆一多德都市的投资者并不探讨bate、资本资产定价模型、证券投资报酬本的变异数。这些都不足他们所关心的议题。事实上，他们大多数难以界定上述学术名词。他们只在乎两项实数：价格与价值。
面对图形分析师所研究的价量行为，我始终感觉惊讶。你是否会仅仅因为某家公司的市场价格在本周或前一周剧扬．便决定购买该企业呢?在日前电脑化的时代，人们之所以会大量研究价格与成交量的行为，理由是这两项变数拥有了无数的资料。研究未必是因为其具任何功用；而只是因为资料既然存在，学术界人士便必须努力学习操作这些资料所需要的数学技巧。—旦拥有这些技巧，不去运用它们便会带来罪恶感，即使这些技巧的运用没有任何功用，或只会带来负面功用．也在所不惜。如同一位朋友所说的，对一位持铁锤的人来说，每—样事看起来都像是钉子。
史坦.波尔米塔（Stan Perlmeter）的投资业绩。他毕业于密西根大学艺术系，是Bozell＆Jacobs广告公司的合伙股东之—。我们的办公室恰好于奥玛哈市的同一幢大楼。1965年，他认为我所经营的事业比他的行业要好，于是他离开广告业。再—次地，史坦于五分钟之内就接受了价值投资法。
史坦所持有的股票与华特的不同。他所持有的股票也和比尔不同。他们都是独立的记录。但是，史坦买进每—支股票时，都是因为他所获得的价值高于他所支付的价格。这是他惟一的考虑。他既不参考每一季的盈余预估值，也不参考明年的盈余项估值，他不在乎当时是星期几，也不关心任何的投资研究报告，他无视价格动能、成交量与其他类似的变数。他只提出一个问题：该企业值多少钱?
我相信市场上存在着许多没有效率的现象。这些来自于“格雷厄姆一多德都市”的投资人成功地掌握了价格与价值之间的缺口。华尔街的“群众”可以影响股票价格，当最情绪化的人、最贪婪的或最沮丧的人肆意驱动股价时，我们很难辩称市场价格是理性的产物。事实上，市场经常是不合理的。
我想提出有关报酬与风险之间的重要关系。在某些情况下，报酬与风险之间存在着正向关系。如果有人告诉我“我有一支六发弹装的左轮枪，并且填装一发子弹。你可以任意地拨动转轮，然后朝自己扣一次扳机。如果你能够逃过一功，我就赏你100万美元。”我将会拒绝这项提议——或许我的理由是100万美元太少了。然后，他可能建议将奖金提高为500万美元，但必须扣两次扳机——这便是报酬与风险之间的正向关系.
在价值投资法当中，情况恰巧相反。如果你以60美分买进一美元的纸钞，其风险大于以40美分买进一美元的纸钞，但后者报酬的期望值却比较高。以价值为导向的投资组合，其报酬的潜力愈高，风险愈低。
可以举一个简单的例子：在1973年，华盛顿邮报公司的总市值为8千万美元。在这一天，你可以将其资产卖给十位买家之一，而且价格不低于4亿美元，甚至还能更高。该公司拥有华盛顿邮报、商业周刊以及数家重要的电视台。这些资产目前的价值为4亿美元，因此愿意支付4亿美元的买家并非疯子。
现在，如果股价继续下跌，该企业的市值从8千万美元跌到4千万美元，其bate值也上升。对于用bate值衡量风险的人来说，更低的价格使它受得更有风险。这真是仙境中的爱丽丝。我永远无法了解，用4千万美元，而非8千万美元购买价值4亿美元的资产，其风险竟然更高。事实上，如果你买进一堆这样的证券，而且稍微了解所谓的企业评价，则用8千万美元的价格买进4亿美元的资产，这笔交易基本上没有风险，尤其是分别以800万美元的价格买进10种价值4000万美元的资产，其风险更低。因为你不拥有4亿美元，所以你希望能够确实找到诚实而有能力的人，这并不困难。
另外，你必须有知识，而且能够粗略地估计企业的价值。但是，你不需要精密的评价知识。这便是葛拉厄姆所谓的安全边际。你不必试图以8000万美元的价格购买价值8300万美元的企业。你必须让自己保有相当的缓冲。架设桥梁时，你坚持载重量为3万磅，但你只准许1万磅的卡车穿梭其间。相同的原则也适用于投资领域。
有些具备商业头脑的人可能会怀疑我撰写本文的动机：更多人皈依价值投资法，将会缩小价值与价格之间的差距。我只能够如此告诉各位，自从本杰明·格雷厄姆与大卫·多德出版《证券分析》，这个秘密已经流传了50年，在我奉行这项投资理论的35年中，我不曾目睹价值投资法蔚然成风。人的天性中似乎存在着偏执的特色，喜欢把简单的事情弄得更复杂。最近30年来，学术界如果有任何作为的话，乃完全背离了价值投资的教训。它很可能继续如此。船只将环绕地球而行。但地平之说仍会畅行无阻。在市场上，价格与价值之间还会存在着宽广的差值，而奉行格雷厄姆与多德理论的人也会繁荣不绝。
２、巴菲特和查里的投资理念来自哪里？他们是否是来自于格雷厄姆智力家族的成员？
３、格雷厄姆提供的是投资的智力理论和应具备的精神状态，而不仅仅是分析方法
再读一下，或许认识更深一些，或许就象巴菲特再这篇演讲中说的，在读了格雷厄姆的书后你顿悟了
１９８４年在庆祝格雷罕姆与多德合著的《证券分析》发行５０周年大会上，巴菲特进行了一次题为“格雷厄姆-多德都市的超级投资者们” (The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville)”的演讲，在他演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力。
格雷厄姆与多德追求“价值远超过价格的安全保障”，这种证券分析方法是否已经过时?目前许多撰写教科书的教授认为如此。他们认为，股票市场是有效率的市场；换言之，股票价格已经充分反应了公司一切己知的事实以及整体经济情况：这些理论家认为，市场上没有价格偏低的股票，因为聪明的证券分析师将运用全部的既有资讯，以确保适当的价格。投资者能经年累月地击败市场，纯粹是运气使然。“如果价格完全反应既有的资讯，则这类的投资技巧将不存在。”
来自“格雷厄姆一多德都市”的投资者所具备的共同智力结构是：他们探索企业的价值与该企业市场价格之间的差异。事实上，他们利用其间的差异，却不在意效率市场理论家所关心的问题：股票究竟在星期一或星期—：买进，或是在一月份或七月份买进……。当企业家买进某家公司时——这正是格雷厄姆一多德都市的投资者透过上市股票所从事的行为——我怀疑有多少人会在意交易必须发生于某个月份或某个星期的第一天。如果企业的买进交易发生在星期一或星期五没有任何差别，则我无法了解学术界人士为何要花费大量的时间和精力，探讨代表该企业部分股权的交易发生时的差异。毋庸多说，格雷厄姆一多德都市的投资者并不探讨bate、资本资产定价模型、证券投资报酬本的变异数。这些都不足他们所关心的议题。事实上，他们大多数难以界定上述学术名词。他们只在乎两项实数：价格与价值。
面对图形分析师所研究的价量行为，我始终感觉惊讶。你是否会仅仅因为某家公司的市场价格在本周或前一周剧扬．便决定购买该企业呢?在日前电脑化的时代，人们之所以会大量研究价格与成交量的行为，理由是这两项变数拥有了无数的资料。研究未必是因为其具任何功用；而只是因为资料既然存在，学术界人士便必须努力学习操作这些资料所需要的数学技巧。—旦拥有这些技巧，不去运用它们便会带来罪恶感，即使这些技巧的运用没有任何功用，或只会带来负面功用．也在所不惜。如同一位朋友所说的，对一位持铁锤的人来说，每—样事看起来都像是钉子。
史坦.波尔米塔（Stan Perlmeter）的投资业绩。他毕业于密西根大学艺术系，是Bozell＆Jacobs广告公司的合伙股东之—。我们的办公室恰好于奥玛哈市的同一幢大楼。1965年，他认为我所经营的事业比他的行业要好，于是他离开广告业。再—次地，史坦于五分钟之内就接受了价值投资法。
史坦所持有的股票与华特的不同。他所持有的股票也和比尔不同。他们都是独立的记录。但是，史坦买进每—支股票时，都是因为他所获得的价值高于他所支付的价格。这是他惟一的考虑。他既不参考每一季的盈余预估值，也不参考明年的盈余项估值，他不在乎当时是星期几，也不关心任何的投资研究报告，他无视价格动能、成交量与其他类似的变数。他只提出一个问题：该企业值多少钱?
我相信市场上存在着许多没有效率的现象。这些来自于“格雷厄姆一多德都市”的投资人成功地掌握了价格与价值之间的缺口。华尔街的“群众”可以影响股票价格，当最情绪化的人、最贪婪的或最沮丧的人肆意驱动股价时，我们很难辩称市场价格是理性的产物。事实上，市场经常是不合理的。
我想提出有关报酬与风险之间的重要关系。在某些情况下，报酬与风险之间存在着正向关系。如果有人告诉我“我有一支六发弹装的左轮枪，并且填装一发子弹。你可以任意地拨动转轮，然后朝自己扣一次扳机。如果你能够逃过一功，我就赏你100万美元。”我将会拒绝这项提议——或许我的理由是100万美元太少了。然后，他可能建议将奖金提高为500万美元，但必须扣两次扳机——这便是报酬与风险之间的正向关系.
在价值投资法当中，情况恰巧相反。如果你以60美分买进一美元的纸钞，其风险大于以40美分买进一美元的纸钞，但后者报酬的期望值却比较高。以价值为导向的投资组合，其报酬的潜力愈高，风险愈低。
可以举一个简单的例子：在1973年，华盛顿邮报公司的总市值为8千万美元。在这一天，你可以将其资产卖给十位买家之一，而且价格不低于4亿美元，甚至还能更高。该公司拥有华盛顿邮报、商业周刊以及数家重要的电视台。这些资产目前的价值为4亿美元，因此愿意支付4亿美元的买家并非疯子。
现在，如果股价继续下跌，该企业的市值从8千万美元跌到4千万美元，其bate值也上升。对于用bate值衡量风险的人来说，更低的价格使它受得更有风险。这真是仙境中的爱丽丝。我永远无法了解，用4千万美元，而非8千万美元购买价值4亿美元的资产，其风险竟然更高。事实上，如果你买进一堆这样的证券，而且稍微了解所谓的企业评价，则用8千万美元的价格买进4亿美元的资产，这笔交易基本上没有风险，尤其是分别以800万美元的价格买进10种价值4000万美元的资产，其风险更低。因为你不拥有4亿美元，所以你希望能够确实找到诚实而有能力的人，这并不困难。
另外，你必须有知识，而且能够粗略地估计企业的价值。但是，你不需要精密的评价知识。这便是葛拉厄姆所谓的安全边际。你不必试图以8000万美元的价格购买价值8300万美元的企业。你必须让自己保有相当的缓冲。架设桥梁时，你坚持载重量为3万磅，但你只准许1万磅的卡车穿梭其间。相同的原则也适用于投资领域。
有些具备商业头脑的人可能会怀疑我撰写本文的动机：更多人皈依价值投资法，将会缩小价值与价格之间的差距。我只能够如此告诉各位，自从本杰明·格雷厄姆与大卫·多德出版《证券分析》，这个秘密已经流传了50年，在我奉行这项投资理论的35年中，我不曾目睹价值投资法蔚然成风。人的天性中似乎存在着偏执的特色，喜欢把简单的事情弄得更复杂。最近30年来，学术界如果有任何作为的话，乃完全背离了价值投资的教训。它很可能继续如此。船只将环绕地球而行。但地平之说仍会畅行无阻。在市场上，价格与价值之间还会存在着宽广的差值，而奉行格雷厄姆与多德理论的人也会繁荣不绝。
Pessimism too high, time to buy: Mobius
Veteran fund manager Mark Mobius sees a potential 20 percent rise in emerging market stocks in 2009 and views extreme investor pessimism as a signal to gradually start buying equities.
"The danger we face now is being too pessimistic," Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, a division of San Mateo, California-based Franklin Templeton Investments, said in a telephone interview with Reuters.
"We are seeing that slight bottoming out, that we have to be cautious of because if we are caught with too much cash, specifically when we are looking at very good bargains, then we are going to be in trouble with our investors," he said.
Mobius manages roughly US$20 billion in emerging market assets out of the firm's US$377 billion assets under management.
Asked how high emerging market stocks might go by year-end: "If you really press me I would say 20 percent would not be unlikely, and the reason I would say that with some degree of confidence is that we have already come up."
MSCI's emerging markets stock index fell 54.48 percent in 2008. While the index is down 9.46 percent year-to-date, it has risen more than 15 percent from its four-year low in October.
The Templeton Developing Markets Trust, the main U.S. registered fund Mobius manages, is down 11.44 percent so far this year after dropping over 57.77 percent in 2008, according to Reuters data.
Cash levels for his portfolio fluctuate between the preferred level of zero and 7 percent he said. He characterizes them as "normal, or certainly not higher than normal."
During the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, cash levels in his funds reached 20 percent.
MARKET BOTTOM?
While market volatility may not be over, a market bottom could be in place, Mobius said when asked at what point in the next 12 months investors might claim they've cleared a hurdle.
"I'm saying that now. I'm feeling that now because of the incredible pessimism that you see everywhere. That usually is a pretty good sign that we are over the hump," he said.
"Almost universal pessimism is usually a very good time to be buying equities because equities lead the economy," by six months to a year he said.
Famous for his globe trotting and "on the ground" research, Mobius said of a recent trip to Latin America that while companies were preparing for the worst, customer orders were still coming in and "a lot of them" are maintaining steady investment programs.
"On the ground things look OK but with a slower pace. That is on the investment side. The valuations now are very very attractive, even if we do a big markdown on earnings," he said.
REGIONAL STRENGTHS
Latin America and Asia are the two favored regions with China and Brazil among the top country picks. Select countries such as Egypt and Turkey stand out among harder hit regions.
"Eastern Europe is pretty much a disaster."
He believes China's stimulus plan will help it achieve its 8 percent GDP growth target this year, helping pull up Asia which increasingly sells more of its goods to the world's third largest economy.
Brazil's diversified economy and growing consumerism make it attractive, he said.
The global financial crisis has had a heavy negative impact on emerging markets which rely on developed market economies to grow and buy up their natural resources and value added goods.
But Mobius believes global emerging markets will rebound faster than developed markets, forecasting an average of 3 percent growth this year. Developed markets are mired in recession.
"I'm confident because of the expanding money supply in the U.S. which will bring inflation in the U.S. and buying power. The knock-on effect will be money going into markets globally and of course emerging markets will get their fair share," Mobius said.
U.S. Federal Reserve data shows the supply of cash and deposits on hand grew a seasonally adjusted 15.1 percent in 2008.
"(Money) is not finding its way into the (U.S.) economy yet, but you better believe it will. That is a very bullish scenario for assets of any kind in my view," he said.
However he believes the nervousness in the global economy that has fueled a flight to safety trade and strengthened the U.S. dollar as investors buy liquid U.S. Treasuries has overvalued the greenback.
"Yes, in a number of instances, (the U.S. dollar) is over valued when I look at price parity," he said.
"The danger we face now is being too pessimistic," Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, a division of San Mateo, California-based Franklin Templeton Investments, said in a telephone interview with Reuters.
"We are seeing that slight bottoming out, that we have to be cautious of because if we are caught with too much cash, specifically when we are looking at very good bargains, then we are going to be in trouble with our investors," he said.
Mobius manages roughly US$20 billion in emerging market assets out of the firm's US$377 billion assets under management.
Asked how high emerging market stocks might go by year-end: "If you really press me I would say 20 percent would not be unlikely, and the reason I would say that with some degree of confidence is that we have already come up."
MSCI's emerging markets stock index fell 54.48 percent in 2008. While the index is down 9.46 percent year-to-date, it has risen more than 15 percent from its four-year low in October.
The Templeton Developing Markets Trust, the main U.S. registered fund Mobius manages, is down 11.44 percent so far this year after dropping over 57.77 percent in 2008, according to Reuters data.
Cash levels for his portfolio fluctuate between the preferred level of zero and 7 percent he said. He characterizes them as "normal, or certainly not higher than normal."
During the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, cash levels in his funds reached 20 percent.
MARKET BOTTOM?
While market volatility may not be over, a market bottom could be in place, Mobius said when asked at what point in the next 12 months investors might claim they've cleared a hurdle.
"I'm saying that now. I'm feeling that now because of the incredible pessimism that you see everywhere. That usually is a pretty good sign that we are over the hump," he said.
"Almost universal pessimism is usually a very good time to be buying equities because equities lead the economy," by six months to a year he said.
Famous for his globe trotting and "on the ground" research, Mobius said of a recent trip to Latin America that while companies were preparing for the worst, customer orders were still coming in and "a lot of them" are maintaining steady investment programs.
"On the ground things look OK but with a slower pace. That is on the investment side. The valuations now are very very attractive, even if we do a big markdown on earnings," he said.
REGIONAL STRENGTHS
Latin America and Asia are the two favored regions with China and Brazil among the top country picks. Select countries such as Egypt and Turkey stand out among harder hit regions.
"Eastern Europe is pretty much a disaster."
He believes China's stimulus plan will help it achieve its 8 percent GDP growth target this year, helping pull up Asia which increasingly sells more of its goods to the world's third largest economy.
Brazil's diversified economy and growing consumerism make it attractive, he said.
The global financial crisis has had a heavy negative impact on emerging markets which rely on developed market economies to grow and buy up their natural resources and value added goods.
But Mobius believes global emerging markets will rebound faster than developed markets, forecasting an average of 3 percent growth this year. Developed markets are mired in recession.
"I'm confident because of the expanding money supply in the U.S. which will bring inflation in the U.S. and buying power. The knock-on effect will be money going into markets globally and of course emerging markets will get their fair share," Mobius said.
U.S. Federal Reserve data shows the supply of cash and deposits on hand grew a seasonally adjusted 15.1 percent in 2008.
"(Money) is not finding its way into the (U.S.) economy yet, but you better believe it will. That is a very bullish scenario for assets of any kind in my view," he said.
However he believes the nervousness in the global economy that has fueled a flight to safety trade and strengthened the U.S. dollar as investors buy liquid U.S. Treasuries has overvalued the greenback.
"Yes, in a number of instances, (the U.S. dollar) is over valued when I look at price parity," he said.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
“五大风暴”威胁全球
中国经济：能否率先走出困境？
一场突如其来的金融风暴让中国也不可避免地陷入其中，自去年下半年以来中国经济遇到了严峻挑战。这些困难是暂时的还是更为长期的？对于2009年的中国经济乃至未来，我们是否仍然应该充满信心？在目前的大环境下，中国的投资机会又在哪些领域？近日众多经济学家都发表了他们的看法。
"会不会有下一轮金融海啸？"这是2月28日参加中证期货在深圳举办的2009年期货投资策略年会的投资者最为关心的话题。
对此，瑞士信贷董事总经理兼亚洲区首席经济师陶冬回应道："有没有海啸我不知道，但是我可以告诉你，目前的地平线上至少有五个风暴正在形成。"
陶冬表示，2009年一定是大起大落的一年，投资者关心的第一个问题应该是如何防范风险。而对于中国的投资机会，陶冬表示应该把握住中国未来十年的两大趋势：中国消费的结构性演变和中国资金出海。
中国经济最先走出困境
"今年全球整体经济的形势没有办法出现明显的突破，但是2010年全球经济增长可能会超乎想象。"陶冬说。
全球各国政府现在已经推出接近14万亿美元的救市方案。陶冬表示，这些举措对经济拉动力主要体现在明年，如奥巴马的财政方案今年对于经济的刺激不过为0.9%，而明年对于经济的刺激是1.7%。
陶冬同时表示，中国经济随着全球经济一起回落，但从中国1月份的贷款数额上可以看出，当世界其他地方的银行还惜贷的时候，当世界其他国家还为流动性极度短缺而挣扎的时候，中国的银行已经开始借钱了。另外，从1月份中国的采购经理指数上也可以明显看到，由于中国基础设施投资开始加快步伐，资本产品的订单有明显的上升。当全世界的领袖们都在谈财政刺激、财政扩张的时候，中国的财政扩张已经体现在订单上。基于这两个原因，陶冬认为，中国经济会比世界其他地方更早地走出目前困境。
防范五大风暴
但是全球整体经济什么时候才能真正复苏？陶冬认为在考虑这个问题之前，首先要关注目前全球经济中潜伏着的风险。他表示，目前全球市场至少还有五个风暴正在形成，这五个风暴分别潜伏在
CDS（信用违约掉期）市场、
新兴市场、
欧洲银行、
欧元和
美国国债之中。
"这五个在我看来是2009年金融市场可能面对的变化。2009年一定是大起大落的一年。这里面的风暴我不敢担保哪个'爆'出来，哪个不'爆'出来。"陶冬说。
投资中国把握两大趋势
对于中国经济，陶冬认为中国经济最坏的时间在2008年第四季度已经出现了，但不意味着最好的时间很快就会到来。"过去拉动中国经济的是四驾马车：消费、投资、出口、房地产。今天一夜之间四匹马没有了，换成了一匹叫'财政'的马，这匹马再肥再壮也很难像四匹马一样拉动经济往前跑，这就是今天中国经济所面临的问题。"
而对于股票投资者，陶冬表示，如今要关注的不是GDP，而是企业的利润。"财政拉动对于大多数企业的盈利影响实际不大，除了个别的钢铁、水泥那是有影响的。靠财政拉动的8%，和靠出口、靠消费拉动的8%有着本质的区别。"他说。
而在中国的投资，最重要的在于把握住中国的发展趋势。陶冬指出，在未来十年，中国投资者应该把握住中国消费的结构性演变和中国资金出海两大重要趋势进行资产配置。
陶冬说，中国人收入的增长、人民币汇率的提高以及中国人口结构上的变化，会拉动经济由出口逐步向消费转移的一个变化。出口黄金的15年已经过去了，消费所带来的新的投资机会就在这十几年中间出现。
对于中国资金出海，陶冬则认为，中国主权资金出海、中国企业并购、中国互惠资金走入世界资本市场，包括中国个人投资在未来十年进入世界金融市场这个大趋势不会改变。"十年以后，中国资金在全球金融市场的影响力，我相信很可能像今天made in China在世界消费市场今天的影响力。这就是变化，这就是挑战，这就是希望，这就是机会。"他说。
一场突如其来的金融风暴让中国也不可避免地陷入其中，自去年下半年以来中国经济遇到了严峻挑战。这些困难是暂时的还是更为长期的？对于2009年的中国经济乃至未来，我们是否仍然应该充满信心？在目前的大环境下，中国的投资机会又在哪些领域？近日众多经济学家都发表了他们的看法。
"会不会有下一轮金融海啸？"这是2月28日参加中证期货在深圳举办的2009年期货投资策略年会的投资者最为关心的话题。
对此，瑞士信贷董事总经理兼亚洲区首席经济师陶冬回应道："有没有海啸我不知道，但是我可以告诉你，目前的地平线上至少有五个风暴正在形成。"
陶冬表示，2009年一定是大起大落的一年，投资者关心的第一个问题应该是如何防范风险。而对于中国的投资机会，陶冬表示应该把握住中国未来十年的两大趋势：中国消费的结构性演变和中国资金出海。
中国经济最先走出困境
"今年全球整体经济的形势没有办法出现明显的突破，但是2010年全球经济增长可能会超乎想象。"陶冬说。
全球各国政府现在已经推出接近14万亿美元的救市方案。陶冬表示，这些举措对经济拉动力主要体现在明年，如奥巴马的财政方案今年对于经济的刺激不过为0.9%，而明年对于经济的刺激是1.7%。
陶冬同时表示，中国经济随着全球经济一起回落，但从中国1月份的贷款数额上可以看出，当世界其他地方的银行还惜贷的时候，当世界其他国家还为流动性极度短缺而挣扎的时候，中国的银行已经开始借钱了。另外，从1月份中国的采购经理指数上也可以明显看到，由于中国基础设施投资开始加快步伐，资本产品的订单有明显的上升。当全世界的领袖们都在谈财政刺激、财政扩张的时候，中国的财政扩张已经体现在订单上。基于这两个原因，陶冬认为，中国经济会比世界其他地方更早地走出目前困境。
防范五大风暴
但是全球整体经济什么时候才能真正复苏？陶冬认为在考虑这个问题之前，首先要关注目前全球经济中潜伏着的风险。他表示，目前全球市场至少还有五个风暴正在形成，这五个风暴分别潜伏在
CDS（信用违约掉期）市场、
新兴市场、
欧洲银行、
欧元和
美国国债之中。
"这五个在我看来是2009年金融市场可能面对的变化。2009年一定是大起大落的一年。这里面的风暴我不敢担保哪个'爆'出来，哪个不'爆'出来。"陶冬说。
投资中国把握两大趋势
对于中国经济，陶冬认为中国经济最坏的时间在2008年第四季度已经出现了，但不意味着最好的时间很快就会到来。"过去拉动中国经济的是四驾马车：消费、投资、出口、房地产。今天一夜之间四匹马没有了，换成了一匹叫'财政'的马，这匹马再肥再壮也很难像四匹马一样拉动经济往前跑，这就是今天中国经济所面临的问题。"
而对于股票投资者，陶冬表示，如今要关注的不是GDP，而是企业的利润。"财政拉动对于大多数企业的盈利影响实际不大，除了个别的钢铁、水泥那是有影响的。靠财政拉动的8%，和靠出口、靠消费拉动的8%有着本质的区别。"他说。
而在中国的投资，最重要的在于把握住中国的发展趋势。陶冬指出，在未来十年，中国投资者应该把握住中国消费的结构性演变和中国资金出海两大重要趋势进行资产配置。
陶冬说，中国人收入的增长、人民币汇率的提高以及中国人口结构上的变化，会拉动经济由出口逐步向消费转移的一个变化。出口黄金的15年已经过去了，消费所带来的新的投资机会就在这十几年中间出现。
对于中国资金出海，陶冬则认为，中国主权资金出海、中国企业并购、中国互惠资金走入世界资本市场，包括中国个人投资在未来十年进入世界金融市场这个大趋势不会改变。"十年以后，中国资金在全球金融市场的影响力，我相信很可能像今天made in China在世界消费市场今天的影响力。这就是变化，这就是挑战，这就是希望，这就是机会。"他说。
股票投资很简单
说到股市投资,许多人以为那是玄乎的事情。请看广州市珠海区一位股票投资高手的现身说法：
进入股市,至今已有6年,起初,我总是亏钱,稀里糊涂地被应家牵着鼻子走.进入第三个年头,我终于领略到股票投资的真谛.此后,我每年的回报率都在80%以上.盈利秘诀很简单,只有几条：
购买时,股票的基本面不能太离谱,价钱不能太高.
买入股票,要相信自已的选择,不要轻易换股.
不要急于将到手的好股票抛掉,宁可等它跌下来再卖.
这位股民的投资经验,可以归结为几点.
注重基本面分析
从长期的眼光看,股市的总体趋势是向上的,任何一只股票,只要基本面比较好,股本规模必然是越来越大.
美国股市从1925年到1975年,大盘股的股本增加1113倍,小盘股增加3822倍.
在中国,股市创立时间不长,股本扩张规模也是惊人的.看看深沪两市不断派送、转增和配股的股票,你就不难明白.
只要你选的不是可能被摘牌的垃圾股,放心持有,将来收益一定不会太差.这是所指的中长线投资,不是死死拿住不放,一点不作短线投机.
价钱要适中
股票的价格高低,不是中小散户所能左右的,不要指望买到最低价,只要价钱不太高,就可以考虑买入.
立场要坚定
所谓“皇帝轮流做,明年到我家”.一只基本面不是太差的股票,价钱又不太高,它的股价有可能下跌或者停滞一段时间,但会重新涨起来.
股票的上涨有一定的时间周期.有些股票不涨,因为时间未到.投资者要明白“以时间换空间”的炒股原则.买入一只潜力不错的低价股,一定要有耐心,任凭庄家兴风作浪,我自立场坚定,坚决持股.只要当初买入的理由没有完全消失,就不要轻易抛掉.
实战经验表明,一只股票暂时不上涨,可能是几个原因造成的：
价格调整没有真正到位；
横盘的时间不够长,盘整尚未结束；
机构还没有收集到足够的筹码；
暂时被人们淡忘；
还不符合当前的市场主流.
股市的情况往往就是这样,当大家看低某只股票时,主力和庄家开始行动,股价甚至在短时间内直冲云霄,上涨几倍,或者十几倍.正如美国炒股大师欧尼尔所说：上一年的垃圾股,可能就是今年的明星股.
市场决定一切
市场永远是变化多端的,个人的智慧是有限的.在股市上,仅仅凭着个人智慧发现所谓的黑马,显然是危险的,或者是愚蠢的.
所谓的黑马股票,并不是投资专家发现的,而是主力机构和庄家们刻意做出来的.庄家既可以制造黑马,也可以将黑马扼杀于萌芽状态中.所谓的黑马专家能够百分之百地抓住黑马,他怎么可能将自已的赚钱秘诀轻易公开呢?如果主力机构和庄家都像黑马专家说的那么愚蠢,他们早就该喝西北风了.
别忘了,投资股票也是市场交易行为,市场行为最终需要由市场决定它的对错.问题在于市场永远都是正确的.在市场行为面前,个人的力量是渺小的,因此,我们对市场应该永存敬畏之心.
我们不难看出,投资股票需要的技术很简单,建构属于自己的投资风格,却是一件很难的事.许多人并不相信投资股票是很简单的,偏偏要将问题复杂化,真是天大的误会.实战经验表明,投资股票不需要太高的智慧.大多数投资精英之所以成为精英,不是因为他们具有与众不同的“独门分析技术”,也不是因为他们具有超人的智慧,而是善于学习,敢于相信自己并建立起属于自己的相对固定的投资风格,以及一套简朴实用的投资原则.这才是他们成为投资精英的秘诀.
一位权威的经济学家说,经济学是一门由简单的常识加上复杂的术语包装起来的学科.道出经济学的真谛.
在股票市场上,有许许多多大同小异、流派各异的理论和分析技术,都有各自的应用原理和实用对象.殊途同归,任何理论和技术的出现,目的都是相同的.作为一位投资者,想在股市上获得真正成功,并不需要将所有理论和分析技术弄通弄透,越是简单实用的东西,越能够直截了当实现自己的盈利目标.
因此,在股市上投资,往往只要一种简单实用的投资原则、一些简单的常识、一套坚决执行的纪律和属于自己的投资风格,就已经足够了.
美国林克斯投资顾问公司总裁彼德.泰纳斯,对全美投资基金作过调查,结果证实了这一点.
一旦形成投资风格,你就会明白,股票投资真的很简单.
进入股市,至今已有6年,起初,我总是亏钱,稀里糊涂地被应家牵着鼻子走.进入第三个年头,我终于领略到股票投资的真谛.此后,我每年的回报率都在80%以上.盈利秘诀很简单,只有几条：
购买时,股票的基本面不能太离谱,价钱不能太高.
买入股票,要相信自已的选择,不要轻易换股.
不要急于将到手的好股票抛掉,宁可等它跌下来再卖.
这位股民的投资经验,可以归结为几点.
注重基本面分析
从长期的眼光看,股市的总体趋势是向上的,任何一只股票,只要基本面比较好,股本规模必然是越来越大.
美国股市从1925年到1975年,大盘股的股本增加1113倍,小盘股增加3822倍.
在中国,股市创立时间不长,股本扩张规模也是惊人的.看看深沪两市不断派送、转增和配股的股票,你就不难明白.
只要你选的不是可能被摘牌的垃圾股,放心持有,将来收益一定不会太差.这是所指的中长线投资,不是死死拿住不放,一点不作短线投机.
价钱要适中
股票的价格高低,不是中小散户所能左右的,不要指望买到最低价,只要价钱不太高,就可以考虑买入.
立场要坚定
所谓“皇帝轮流做,明年到我家”.一只基本面不是太差的股票,价钱又不太高,它的股价有可能下跌或者停滞一段时间,但会重新涨起来.
股票的上涨有一定的时间周期.有些股票不涨,因为时间未到.投资者要明白“以时间换空间”的炒股原则.买入一只潜力不错的低价股,一定要有耐心,任凭庄家兴风作浪,我自立场坚定,坚决持股.只要当初买入的理由没有完全消失,就不要轻易抛掉.
实战经验表明,一只股票暂时不上涨,可能是几个原因造成的：
价格调整没有真正到位；
横盘的时间不够长,盘整尚未结束；
机构还没有收集到足够的筹码；
暂时被人们淡忘；
还不符合当前的市场主流.
股市的情况往往就是这样,当大家看低某只股票时,主力和庄家开始行动,股价甚至在短时间内直冲云霄,上涨几倍,或者十几倍.正如美国炒股大师欧尼尔所说：上一年的垃圾股,可能就是今年的明星股.
市场决定一切
市场永远是变化多端的,个人的智慧是有限的.在股市上,仅仅凭着个人智慧发现所谓的黑马,显然是危险的,或者是愚蠢的.
所谓的黑马股票,并不是投资专家发现的,而是主力机构和庄家们刻意做出来的.庄家既可以制造黑马,也可以将黑马扼杀于萌芽状态中.所谓的黑马专家能够百分之百地抓住黑马,他怎么可能将自已的赚钱秘诀轻易公开呢?如果主力机构和庄家都像黑马专家说的那么愚蠢,他们早就该喝西北风了.
别忘了,投资股票也是市场交易行为,市场行为最终需要由市场决定它的对错.问题在于市场永远都是正确的.在市场行为面前,个人的力量是渺小的,因此,我们对市场应该永存敬畏之心.
我们不难看出,投资股票需要的技术很简单,建构属于自己的投资风格,却是一件很难的事.许多人并不相信投资股票是很简单的,偏偏要将问题复杂化,真是天大的误会.实战经验表明,投资股票不需要太高的智慧.大多数投资精英之所以成为精英,不是因为他们具有与众不同的“独门分析技术”,也不是因为他们具有超人的智慧,而是善于学习,敢于相信自己并建立起属于自己的相对固定的投资风格,以及一套简朴实用的投资原则.这才是他们成为投资精英的秘诀.
一位权威的经济学家说,经济学是一门由简单的常识加上复杂的术语包装起来的学科.道出经济学的真谛.
在股票市场上,有许许多多大同小异、流派各异的理论和分析技术,都有各自的应用原理和实用对象.殊途同归,任何理论和技术的出现,目的都是相同的.作为一位投资者,想在股市上获得真正成功,并不需要将所有理论和分析技术弄通弄透,越是简单实用的东西,越能够直截了当实现自己的盈利目标.
因此,在股市上投资,往往只要一种简单实用的投资原则、一些简单的常识、一套坚决执行的纪律和属于自己的投资风格,就已经足够了.
美国林克斯投资顾问公司总裁彼德.泰纳斯,对全美投资基金作过调查,结果证实了这一点.
一旦形成投资风格,你就会明白,股票投资真的很简单.
许小年：散户炒股，只能替人埋单
面对当前的世界金融危机，中国到底应该采取什么样的措施来应对？昨日，在参加腾讯、经济观察报和本报组织的有关金融危机的讨论时，上海中欧国际工商学院教授许小年表示，“要在这场危机中率先反弹，必须靠老百姓消费，而不是完全依靠政策投资”。
“这不是最后一次危机”
“当前是第一次危机，但绝对不是最后一次。”许小年教授语出惊人，他首先按照他自己的逻辑观点分析了这次危机的成因。
“这次危机是在世界上两大经济板块—以美国为代表的发达经济体和以中国为代表的新型经济体在过去几十年间融合程度日益提高的情况下发生的，是全球经济一体化造成的。”许小年说，具体的表现是：全球化进程改变了世界经济的运行规律，但世界各国的企业、政策制定者思想准备不足，犯了这样那样的错误，导致危机发生。
“更具体地来讲，美国是过度借贷，超前消费，使得家庭、企业的经济负债表都失衡了。美国是借钱维持了过去几年的繁荣。而中国和美国相反。美国是过度借贷，我们是过度储蓄；美国是过度消费，我们是过度投资。”
过度投资将产生过剩产能
许小年指出，美国要进行调整，中国也要进行调整。即使没有美国的经济萧条，没有外部需求的迅速下降，中国的经济也要进行调整。
“为什么？因为我们的过度投资也是不可持续的。过度的投资将产生大量的过剩生产能力、大量的过剩库存。我看过一本研究资料，仅存量房的消化就要 1到3年。在过剩的情况下，企业将不会再进行新的投资。因此过去拉动中国经济增长最强劲的火车头——投资，很快将显得软弱无力。”
许小年认为，美国现在要做的是削减消费，降低负债，增加储蓄。而中国需要的调整是什么呢？中国是要减少投资，消化过剩产能。
要释放市场购买力
中国应对金融危机到底是靠市场靠民众，还是依靠政府投资？许小年认为这是两个完全不同的思路。他认为，中国经济要在这场危机中率先反弹，必须靠老百姓消费。
对当前政府已逐步实施的4万亿投资计划，许认为，其投资的效率将远远低于民间花钱的效率。这不仅是因为有可能存在腐败，更重要的是，这些投资很多时候并不能真正满足百姓的需求，“一定要让老百姓自己去花钱买自己想买的东西”。在金融危机期间，政府可以考虑广发消费券。
许小年还表示，当前中国依然有很大的市场需求潜力，政府要做的就是打破僵化体制对这些市场需求的束缚，把这些需求和购买力释放出来。
民意调查 你最担心4万亿什么？
对4万亿资金，普通百姓和网民最担心的是出现贪污腐败，希望有公众监督，但对一些经济学家来说，他们最担心的是浪费和无效投资。
许小年说：“从国家成本和经济成本上考虑，应该讲究投资的经济效益，只有这样才是理性投资。”
话说股市 “散户炒股，只能给别人埋单”
记者在来京之前搜集了诸多关于股市的问题，昨日代表武汉散户向许小年教授发问：“你在博客中写道‘如果股民每天看着股指数字的变化来炒股，我建议就不要做了’，请问是为什么？您如何看待前段股市倒春寒及当前两会的行情？对股民有何建议和提醒？”
记者刚放下麦克风， 许小年教授就从旋转沙发上转过来望向记者，眉头深锁，一副很“哀其不幸，怒其不争”的神情:“股票这个话题是问到我最多的话题了。”
首先，许小年建议社会的各个层面不要把过多的精力放在股市上，他认为这是股市搞不好的原因之一。
“关注的人太多了，就像一个家庭的独生子女那样，爷爷奶奶一大家人都来关注这个孩子，这样对他的成长非常有害。 ”他认为，中国现在的情况是，政府也关注股市，投资机构和投资者也关注股市，媒体和高校教授也关注股市，他希望大家对股市能有个平常心。
许认为，股票投资是一个专业性很强的职业，如果老百姓看着股指炒股票，或听着消息炒股票，证明他在市场上一定没有任何优势，包括没有资金优势，没有信息优势，没有服务优势，全都是劣势。
“所以，对这种股民，特别是散户股民，我对他们的投资建议就是——尽快退出股市，不要做。”因为，这样的股民打一场没有任何优势的战争，最终肯定会输，除了给别人埋单外，不会有什么好结果。
“既然是必输无疑的仗，为什么一定要打呢？要么就远离股市，要么就委托投资机构来炒股。 ”
“这不是最后一次危机”
“当前是第一次危机，但绝对不是最后一次。”许小年教授语出惊人，他首先按照他自己的逻辑观点分析了这次危机的成因。
“这次危机是在世界上两大经济板块—以美国为代表的发达经济体和以中国为代表的新型经济体在过去几十年间融合程度日益提高的情况下发生的，是全球经济一体化造成的。”许小年说，具体的表现是：全球化进程改变了世界经济的运行规律，但世界各国的企业、政策制定者思想准备不足，犯了这样那样的错误，导致危机发生。
“更具体地来讲，美国是过度借贷，超前消费，使得家庭、企业的经济负债表都失衡了。美国是借钱维持了过去几年的繁荣。而中国和美国相反。美国是过度借贷，我们是过度储蓄；美国是过度消费，我们是过度投资。”
过度投资将产生过剩产能
许小年指出，美国要进行调整，中国也要进行调整。即使没有美国的经济萧条，没有外部需求的迅速下降，中国的经济也要进行调整。
“为什么？因为我们的过度投资也是不可持续的。过度的投资将产生大量的过剩生产能力、大量的过剩库存。我看过一本研究资料，仅存量房的消化就要 1到3年。在过剩的情况下，企业将不会再进行新的投资。因此过去拉动中国经济增长最强劲的火车头——投资，很快将显得软弱无力。”
许小年认为，美国现在要做的是削减消费，降低负债，增加储蓄。而中国需要的调整是什么呢？中国是要减少投资，消化过剩产能。
要释放市场购买力
中国应对金融危机到底是靠市场靠民众，还是依靠政府投资？许小年认为这是两个完全不同的思路。他认为，中国经济要在这场危机中率先反弹，必须靠老百姓消费。
对当前政府已逐步实施的4万亿投资计划，许认为，其投资的效率将远远低于民间花钱的效率。这不仅是因为有可能存在腐败，更重要的是，这些投资很多时候并不能真正满足百姓的需求，“一定要让老百姓自己去花钱买自己想买的东西”。在金融危机期间，政府可以考虑广发消费券。
许小年还表示，当前中国依然有很大的市场需求潜力，政府要做的就是打破僵化体制对这些市场需求的束缚，把这些需求和购买力释放出来。
民意调查 你最担心4万亿什么？
对4万亿资金，普通百姓和网民最担心的是出现贪污腐败，希望有公众监督，但对一些经济学家来说，他们最担心的是浪费和无效投资。
许小年说：“从国家成本和经济成本上考虑，应该讲究投资的经济效益，只有这样才是理性投资。”
话说股市 “散户炒股，只能给别人埋单”
记者在来京之前搜集了诸多关于股市的问题，昨日代表武汉散户向许小年教授发问：“你在博客中写道‘如果股民每天看着股指数字的变化来炒股，我建议就不要做了’，请问是为什么？您如何看待前段股市倒春寒及当前两会的行情？对股民有何建议和提醒？”
记者刚放下麦克风， 许小年教授就从旋转沙发上转过来望向记者，眉头深锁，一副很“哀其不幸，怒其不争”的神情:“股票这个话题是问到我最多的话题了。”
首先，许小年建议社会的各个层面不要把过多的精力放在股市上，他认为这是股市搞不好的原因之一。
“关注的人太多了，就像一个家庭的独生子女那样，爷爷奶奶一大家人都来关注这个孩子，这样对他的成长非常有害。 ”他认为，中国现在的情况是，政府也关注股市，投资机构和投资者也关注股市，媒体和高校教授也关注股市，他希望大家对股市能有个平常心。
许认为，股票投资是一个专业性很强的职业，如果老百姓看着股指炒股票，或听着消息炒股票，证明他在市场上一定没有任何优势，包括没有资金优势，没有信息优势，没有服务优势，全都是劣势。
“所以，对这种股民，特别是散户股民，我对他们的投资建议就是——尽快退出股市，不要做。”因为，这样的股民打一场没有任何优势的战争，最终肯定会输，除了给别人埋单外，不会有什么好结果。
“既然是必输无疑的仗，为什么一定要打呢？要么就远离股市，要么就委托投资机构来炒股。 ”
Why the Pandit Memo Is Meaningless
It's nice to get a rally for a change, and the idea that the words "bank" and "profit" could be written in the same memo is astounding.
But the idea that the memo communicated anything meaningful, or that solvency is assured is hokum. Lex has a good take, as always:
But investors should not lose their heads. The headline-grabbing revenue number, of course, does not include costs or writedowns. Besides, Citi exceeded $20bn in adjusted revenues for eight quarters up until the end of September. Even in the nightmare final quarter of last year, revenues excluding writedowns were still a respectable $13.4bn. So Citi having a bumper top line is nothing to get excited about. That “profitable” remains unquantified gives no comfort as to what extent writedowns have eaten into that haul. That is the problem. In volatile markets, flow businesses such as foreign exchange or cash equities will always do well.
ZeroHedge has some further thoughts:
Another question is how much of this blockbuster revenue was due to the Smith Barney brokerage: Citi was forced to sell half of this unit about a month ago, and thus any associated revenues have to be chopped in half for a true pro forma representation, else Citi is double counting the income statement and balance sheet benefits. As more impairments have to be taken, higher and higher tranches of the capital structure will likely become equitization candidates and thus sources of incremental stock dilution.
Finally, we like AngryBear's suggestion that if people are believing anything a bank CEO says, it's official that capitalism can't be saved from investor idiocy. Their words!
But the idea that the memo communicated anything meaningful, or that solvency is assured is hokum. Lex has a good take, as always:
But investors should not lose their heads. The headline-grabbing revenue number, of course, does not include costs or writedowns. Besides, Citi exceeded $20bn in adjusted revenues for eight quarters up until the end of September. Even in the nightmare final quarter of last year, revenues excluding writedowns were still a respectable $13.4bn. So Citi having a bumper top line is nothing to get excited about. That “profitable” remains unquantified gives no comfort as to what extent writedowns have eaten into that haul. That is the problem. In volatile markets, flow businesses such as foreign exchange or cash equities will always do well.
ZeroHedge has some further thoughts:
Another question is how much of this blockbuster revenue was due to the Smith Barney brokerage: Citi was forced to sell half of this unit about a month ago, and thus any associated revenues have to be chopped in half for a true pro forma representation, else Citi is double counting the income statement and balance sheet benefits. As more impairments have to be taken, higher and higher tranches of the capital structure will likely become equitization candidates and thus sources of incremental stock dilution.
Finally, we like AngryBear's suggestion that if people are believing anything a bank CEO says, it's official that capitalism can't be saved from investor idiocy. Their words!
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
5 Reasons Renting Still Beats Buying
This weekend I’ll throw $1,100 down the drain. That is to say, I’ll pay my rent. Pop-finance pundits have long used the drain cliché to describe how renters like me waste money, while homeowners with mortgages “pay themselves” and “build equity.”
In April 2007 I argued something different: Renting Makes More Financial Sense Than Homeownership. Basically, houses produce poor returns over long time periods while stocks and other investments produce good ones, and the outlook for houses is especially poor now, so I’d rather rent cheaply and funnel my extra cash into something other than a house.
Even though house prices have plunged and I have enough money to buy one, I’m still not nearly tempted. In what follows I’ll give five reasons. (The first two form the core of my original argument.) Before all this starts to sound too self-congratulatory, I’ll also explain the one big thing my essay got wrong.
Reason 1: Houses produce lousy returns, while stocks produce good ones
Houses looked like smart investments in 2007. They had returned 9.3% a year for a decade, while stocks had returned just 5.9%. This year, with investors fleeing both houses and stocks, both probably look like a waste of money. But be careful about succumbing to what psychologists call recency bias — the tendency to form beliefs based largely on the most recent observations in a long series of data. For U.S. investors, reliable data on stocks and houses goes back well further than 10, 20 or even 50 years.
Stocks returned 7% a year for 200 years ended 2004, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. That’s after subtracting an average of 3% a year for inflation, or the gradual rise in prices of ordinary goods. The plunge in stock prices over the past 16 months makes me all the more sure that shares are poised to deliver good returns over the next decade or two. Houses returned 0.4% a year over 114 years ended 2004, according to Yale professor Robert Shiller, co-creator of the most widely used index for house prices. That number is suspiciously close to zero. Indeed, it might have been zero, reckons Shiller, if not for two periods of aggressive house buying, one spurred by government incentives following World War II and another created by the Federal Reserve’s drastic interest rate cuts in 2002 and 2003.
A zero return for houses might sound odd. An editor who re-published my original essay at another web site stuck the word “virtually” before zero, I suppose to soften the message. I made him take it out. If you think about it, zero is the only logical answer, so long as we’re talking about a single-family house and not, say, a rental building built to maximize income. Inflation, recall, is the gradual price rise of ordinary goods. What’s a house if not an ordinary good? Houses don’t spend their days thinking about ways to make themselves more valuable. They just sit there. Subtract inflation from their long-term price increases and there’s nothing left.
Apply heaps of leverage to the numbers if you like, but the outcome only worsens. Mortgage rates now are about as low as they’ve ever been, thanks to more government efforts to, among other things, spur house buying. But you’ll still pay 5.2% to capture long-term price increases that merely match inflation. And today, you’ll tie up a bundle of cash with a down payment. I’d rather pay cheap rent instead of an expensive mortgage and put the monthly cash I save into stocks and other investments. And rent is still plenty cheap, because . . .
Reason 2: House prices have further to fall
Price matters. Few stock investors would think about buying shares of a company before looking at some measure of how expensive it is relative to the value it creates. They might look at the price/earnings ratio, for example. Houses have a price/earnings ratio of sorts — the ratio of their price to the yearly income they could generate if rented out. In April 2007 I noted that price/earnings ratios for stocks were only slightly above their historic average, while price/rent ratios for houses were double their average.
Stock prices were the thing I got wrong. The price/earnings ratio I gave was correct, but the earnings on which it was based were far from ordinary. The fierce housing boom was ringing cash registers at furniture stores, employing heaps of real estate agents, padding the profit statements of lenders and, thanks to home equity loans, puffing up buying power for just about everything. I should have realized that America’s corporate profit was close to a third above normal levels as a percentage of gross domestic product. Profits have reverted to average levels, and stocks have fallen to around 14 times earnings. I recently cautioned readers that, even though stocks are fairly priced, it’s natural to assume that after a long period of above-average prices we can enter a few years of below-average ones.
Houses still seem expensive, though. One recent survey by Moody’s Economy.com found that the price/rent ratio in major markets had fallen to 20 from 24 three years ago, but that for 16 years ended 1999, before the house-buying spree began in earnest, it had stayed below 15.
Numbers like those should inform not only house-buying decisions, but public policy. If a citizen is being made poor by the debt they carry on the house they bought, and if a government policy keeps them tied to that house instead of separated from it into more affordable housing, are we really helping them?
Reason 3: Many houses for sale today seem designed to waste money
“Most men appear never to have considered what a house is, and are actually though needlessly poor all their lives because they think that they must have such a one as their neighbors have.” Henry David Thoreau wrote that about 160 years ago in a long, somewhat preachy but also poignant treatise called "Walden," which argued against materialism and for simplicity. I’d imagine it applies to today’s houses even more than to ones in Thoreau’s day.
Commercial real estate investors seek to maximize the amount of use tenants can get out of a building, while minimizing the operating expenses. Single-family house buyers have lately done almost the opposite, by buying far larger houses than single families need. From the 1950s to 2006, the average American house size doubled, even as the size of families shrank. U.S. tax policy rewards house buyers who borrow, not renters, and not house buyers who pay cash. So naturally, Americans responded by borrowing, which inflated their buying power and ultimately caused dwellings themselves to balloon. The “dream of homeownership” became more of an entitlement to mansion-ownership. But all those mansions on the market do little for me, financially speaking. They’re expensive to heat and cool, and to fill with a respectable amount of stuff.
Reason 4: Big houses are targets for future taxes
This year, U.S. government debt will increase by the largest amount relative to the size of the economy since World War II. Assuming the country will eventually right its financial course, at least some of that money will have to be paid back. That means higher taxes in the future, and taxes come mostly from people with a proven ability to pay — people with high incomes and people with large, expensive, easy-to-find assets. There’s only muted talk of states raising property taxes now, since the federal government is working to support house prices. I’m worried that property taxes will rise sharply in coming years. Of course, renters pay taxes too, if you figure that landlords merely pass along taxes to tenants. But renters live in smaller spaces.
I might have titled this reason, "Few people truly own their house, anyway." To me, owning something is defined in part by not having to pay anymore. Condo owners are really renters, if we consider their endless maintenance fees. But house owners, too, must pay rent to the government in the form of taxes, and must pay for plenty of ongoing maintenance besides.
Reason 5: Neighborhoods are changing in unpredictable ways
In March 2008, The Atlantic published a frightening vision of what might happen to America’s suburbs. Low-density suburbs, it theorized, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and '70s — "slums characterized by poverty, crime and decay.” I’ve no idea whether anything like that will come to pass. But the popping of America’s giant housing bubble, and a corresponding shift in where people find jobs, seems sure to reshape how and where we live in coming years. For rural folks that might not matter much. (For them, in fact, little of this might apply, since house prices in rural America have stayed pretty sane.) But anyone considering a move to the suburbs should do some careful forecasting before sinking a large portion of their wealth into a house.
I hope all this doesn’t sound alarmist. I’ll surely buy a house one day, when prices are low enough, and I’ll probably even buy one that’s a little bigger than I need. But I’ll do so knowing that I’m spending on luxury, not investing. Also, I hope this doesn’t further the anxiety of readers with mortgage troubles. The trend of the day seems to be to take an angry tone with people who’ve gotten in over their heads -- one fellow columnist referred to them the other day as “deadbeats.” But two other parties deserve a full measure of blame, and I don’t mean lenders. First, lawmakers have for decades trumpeted house affordability initiatives like tax breaks, while leaving supply in choice markets constrained. That inflated demand and ultimately produced the opposite of affordability. Second, too many people who do what I do for a living spent most of the housing boom cheerleading instead of doing math. It’s time to stop lecturing renters — and maybe to ask why public policy treats them as less-worthy citizens than buyers.
In April 2007 I argued something different: Renting Makes More Financial Sense Than Homeownership. Basically, houses produce poor returns over long time periods while stocks and other investments produce good ones, and the outlook for houses is especially poor now, so I’d rather rent cheaply and funnel my extra cash into something other than a house.
Even though house prices have plunged and I have enough money to buy one, I’m still not nearly tempted. In what follows I’ll give five reasons. (The first two form the core of my original argument.) Before all this starts to sound too self-congratulatory, I’ll also explain the one big thing my essay got wrong.
Reason 1: Houses produce lousy returns, while stocks produce good ones
Houses looked like smart investments in 2007. They had returned 9.3% a year for a decade, while stocks had returned just 5.9%. This year, with investors fleeing both houses and stocks, both probably look like a waste of money. But be careful about succumbing to what psychologists call recency bias — the tendency to form beliefs based largely on the most recent observations in a long series of data. For U.S. investors, reliable data on stocks and houses goes back well further than 10, 20 or even 50 years.
Stocks returned 7% a year for 200 years ended 2004, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. That’s after subtracting an average of 3% a year for inflation, or the gradual rise in prices of ordinary goods. The plunge in stock prices over the past 16 months makes me all the more sure that shares are poised to deliver good returns over the next decade or two. Houses returned 0.4% a year over 114 years ended 2004, according to Yale professor Robert Shiller, co-creator of the most widely used index for house prices. That number is suspiciously close to zero. Indeed, it might have been zero, reckons Shiller, if not for two periods of aggressive house buying, one spurred by government incentives following World War II and another created by the Federal Reserve’s drastic interest rate cuts in 2002 and 2003.
A zero return for houses might sound odd. An editor who re-published my original essay at another web site stuck the word “virtually” before zero, I suppose to soften the message. I made him take it out. If you think about it, zero is the only logical answer, so long as we’re talking about a single-family house and not, say, a rental building built to maximize income. Inflation, recall, is the gradual price rise of ordinary goods. What’s a house if not an ordinary good? Houses don’t spend their days thinking about ways to make themselves more valuable. They just sit there. Subtract inflation from their long-term price increases and there’s nothing left.
Apply heaps of leverage to the numbers if you like, but the outcome only worsens. Mortgage rates now are about as low as they’ve ever been, thanks to more government efforts to, among other things, spur house buying. But you’ll still pay 5.2% to capture long-term price increases that merely match inflation. And today, you’ll tie up a bundle of cash with a down payment. I’d rather pay cheap rent instead of an expensive mortgage and put the monthly cash I save into stocks and other investments. And rent is still plenty cheap, because . . .
Reason 2: House prices have further to fall
Price matters. Few stock investors would think about buying shares of a company before looking at some measure of how expensive it is relative to the value it creates. They might look at the price/earnings ratio, for example. Houses have a price/earnings ratio of sorts — the ratio of their price to the yearly income they could generate if rented out. In April 2007 I noted that price/earnings ratios for stocks were only slightly above their historic average, while price/rent ratios for houses were double their average.
Stock prices were the thing I got wrong. The price/earnings ratio I gave was correct, but the earnings on which it was based were far from ordinary. The fierce housing boom was ringing cash registers at furniture stores, employing heaps of real estate agents, padding the profit statements of lenders and, thanks to home equity loans, puffing up buying power for just about everything. I should have realized that America’s corporate profit was close to a third above normal levels as a percentage of gross domestic product. Profits have reverted to average levels, and stocks have fallen to around 14 times earnings. I recently cautioned readers that, even though stocks are fairly priced, it’s natural to assume that after a long period of above-average prices we can enter a few years of below-average ones.
Houses still seem expensive, though. One recent survey by Moody’s Economy.com found that the price/rent ratio in major markets had fallen to 20 from 24 three years ago, but that for 16 years ended 1999, before the house-buying spree began in earnest, it had stayed below 15.
Numbers like those should inform not only house-buying decisions, but public policy. If a citizen is being made poor by the debt they carry on the house they bought, and if a government policy keeps them tied to that house instead of separated from it into more affordable housing, are we really helping them?
Reason 3: Many houses for sale today seem designed to waste money
“Most men appear never to have considered what a house is, and are actually though needlessly poor all their lives because they think that they must have such a one as their neighbors have.” Henry David Thoreau wrote that about 160 years ago in a long, somewhat preachy but also poignant treatise called "Walden," which argued against materialism and for simplicity. I’d imagine it applies to today’s houses even more than to ones in Thoreau’s day.
Commercial real estate investors seek to maximize the amount of use tenants can get out of a building, while minimizing the operating expenses. Single-family house buyers have lately done almost the opposite, by buying far larger houses than single families need. From the 1950s to 2006, the average American house size doubled, even as the size of families shrank. U.S. tax policy rewards house buyers who borrow, not renters, and not house buyers who pay cash. So naturally, Americans responded by borrowing, which inflated their buying power and ultimately caused dwellings themselves to balloon. The “dream of homeownership” became more of an entitlement to mansion-ownership. But all those mansions on the market do little for me, financially speaking. They’re expensive to heat and cool, and to fill with a respectable amount of stuff.
Reason 4: Big houses are targets for future taxes
This year, U.S. government debt will increase by the largest amount relative to the size of the economy since World War II. Assuming the country will eventually right its financial course, at least some of that money will have to be paid back. That means higher taxes in the future, and taxes come mostly from people with a proven ability to pay — people with high incomes and people with large, expensive, easy-to-find assets. There’s only muted talk of states raising property taxes now, since the federal government is working to support house prices. I’m worried that property taxes will rise sharply in coming years. Of course, renters pay taxes too, if you figure that landlords merely pass along taxes to tenants. But renters live in smaller spaces.
I might have titled this reason, "Few people truly own their house, anyway." To me, owning something is defined in part by not having to pay anymore. Condo owners are really renters, if we consider their endless maintenance fees. But house owners, too, must pay rent to the government in the form of taxes, and must pay for plenty of ongoing maintenance besides.
Reason 5: Neighborhoods are changing in unpredictable ways
In March 2008, The Atlantic published a frightening vision of what might happen to America’s suburbs. Low-density suburbs, it theorized, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and '70s — "slums characterized by poverty, crime and decay.” I’ve no idea whether anything like that will come to pass. But the popping of America’s giant housing bubble, and a corresponding shift in where people find jobs, seems sure to reshape how and where we live in coming years. For rural folks that might not matter much. (For them, in fact, little of this might apply, since house prices in rural America have stayed pretty sane.) But anyone considering a move to the suburbs should do some careful forecasting before sinking a large portion of their wealth into a house.
I hope all this doesn’t sound alarmist. I’ll surely buy a house one day, when prices are low enough, and I’ll probably even buy one that’s a little bigger than I need. But I’ll do so knowing that I’m spending on luxury, not investing. Also, I hope this doesn’t further the anxiety of readers with mortgage troubles. The trend of the day seems to be to take an angry tone with people who’ve gotten in over their heads -- one fellow columnist referred to them the other day as “deadbeats.” But two other parties deserve a full measure of blame, and I don’t mean lenders. First, lawmakers have for decades trumpeted house affordability initiatives like tax breaks, while leaving supply in choice markets constrained. That inflated demand and ultimately produced the opposite of affordability. Second, too many people who do what I do for a living spent most of the housing boom cheerleading instead of doing math. It’s time to stop lecturing renters — and maybe to ask why public policy treats them as less-worthy citizens than buyers.
In the post - UOB’s foray into heartland home loans
In a surprise move, United Overseas Bank (UOB) has tied-up exclusively with SingPost to sell HDB home loans, muscling its way into mass market mortgages that have so far been dominated by rivals DBS Group Holdings and OCBC Bank.
UOB which has previously targeted private property buyers and the affluent yesterday said it has forged a strategic alliance with SingPost to distribute UOB HDB Home Loans.
The bank will initially start with four SingPost outlets and plan to have up to 24 post office branches by the end of the year to sell HDB homes loans. SingPost has 52 branches all over the island.
‘The latest move extends UOB’s HDB home loans’ distribution network beyond its 57 branches,’ UOB and SingPost said in a joint statement.
The exclusive arrangement is for more than 5 years, said Claudia Lim, SingPost corporate communications manager.
SingPost dedicated staff trained by UOB will be selling the HDB home loans, said Ms Lim.
Eddie Khoo, UOB’s executive vice-president for personal financial services, said the latest initiative ‘is really about bringing convenience to customers by extending the bank’s distribution network beyond the walls of our own branches to reach customers’.
‘At the macro level, and in the longer term, we see this as a strategic investment as this additional channel enables us to serve our customers better through convenience and accessibility.’
The surprise move will likely spark off a fierce tussle with rivals DBS and OCBC who may seek to protect their turf. Both banks claim to be the market leader. DBS said it has captured HDB buyers through its POSB customers while OCBC has focused on HDB mortgages from the time the government liberalised the market in Jan 2003.
‘POSB is the market leader in HDB home loans,’ said a DBS spokeswoman. The bank has 53 POSB branches.
‘We were also the first in the market to introduce POSB Home Ideal First for first-time homeowners, offering them a 7-day return policy which allows them to assess if the home loan is suitable for their needs,’ she said.
Gregory Chan, OCBC head of secured lending, said the bank’s team of mobile home loan specialists visit potential customers who are too busy to come to its branches, to explain details of home loan packages and to process applications.
‘At the same time, we work with property agents from the largest property firms in Singapore who are in direct contact with home buyers and help market our home loans. This business model has served us well and we continue to be the top player in the HDB home loan market,’ said Mr Chan.
Mass market home loans are just about the safest products as Singapore enters its worst recession ever because the prices of HDB homes did not surge wildly during the property bubble. And now, they are not skidding sharply.
In contrast, the prices of some high-end properties have crashed as much as 50 per cent from the peak reached last year. A Citigroup report in January said that, in the high-end segment, properties have seen price corrections of about 35 per cent from a year ago and they could fall by another 30-40 per cent this year.
David Conner, OCBC chief executive, said last month while announcing the bank’s 2008 results that negative equity for its property portfolio was low because of the bank’s focus on HDB home loans.
He also noted that HDB mortgages are for owner occupation and the loan quantums are small.
‘A big part of our portfolio is HDB - prices have not gone up as much - and we do not anticipate a big fall,’ he said.
OCBC’s home loan book negative equity was 0.7 per cent while 81 per cent of homes for which it has made loans are owner-occupied.
UOB which has previously targeted private property buyers and the affluent yesterday said it has forged a strategic alliance with SingPost to distribute UOB HDB Home Loans.
The bank will initially start with four SingPost outlets and plan to have up to 24 post office branches by the end of the year to sell HDB homes loans. SingPost has 52 branches all over the island.
‘The latest move extends UOB’s HDB home loans’ distribution network beyond its 57 branches,’ UOB and SingPost said in a joint statement.
The exclusive arrangement is for more than 5 years, said Claudia Lim, SingPost corporate communications manager.
SingPost dedicated staff trained by UOB will be selling the HDB home loans, said Ms Lim.
Eddie Khoo, UOB’s executive vice-president for personal financial services, said the latest initiative ‘is really about bringing convenience to customers by extending the bank’s distribution network beyond the walls of our own branches to reach customers’.
‘At the macro level, and in the longer term, we see this as a strategic investment as this additional channel enables us to serve our customers better through convenience and accessibility.’
The surprise move will likely spark off a fierce tussle with rivals DBS and OCBC who may seek to protect their turf. Both banks claim to be the market leader. DBS said it has captured HDB buyers through its POSB customers while OCBC has focused on HDB mortgages from the time the government liberalised the market in Jan 2003.
‘POSB is the market leader in HDB home loans,’ said a DBS spokeswoman. The bank has 53 POSB branches.
‘We were also the first in the market to introduce POSB Home Ideal First for first-time homeowners, offering them a 7-day return policy which allows them to assess if the home loan is suitable for their needs,’ she said.
Gregory Chan, OCBC head of secured lending, said the bank’s team of mobile home loan specialists visit potential customers who are too busy to come to its branches, to explain details of home loan packages and to process applications.
‘At the same time, we work with property agents from the largest property firms in Singapore who are in direct contact with home buyers and help market our home loans. This business model has served us well and we continue to be the top player in the HDB home loan market,’ said Mr Chan.
Mass market home loans are just about the safest products as Singapore enters its worst recession ever because the prices of HDB homes did not surge wildly during the property bubble. And now, they are not skidding sharply.
In contrast, the prices of some high-end properties have crashed as much as 50 per cent from the peak reached last year. A Citigroup report in January said that, in the high-end segment, properties have seen price corrections of about 35 per cent from a year ago and they could fall by another 30-40 per cent this year.
David Conner, OCBC chief executive, said last month while announcing the bank’s 2008 results that negative equity for its property portfolio was low because of the bank’s focus on HDB home loans.
He also noted that HDB mortgages are for owner occupation and the loan quantums are small.
‘A big part of our portfolio is HDB - prices have not gone up as much - and we do not anticipate a big fall,’ he said.
OCBC’s home loan book negative equity was 0.7 per cent while 81 per cent of homes for which it has made loans are owner-occupied.
Singapore Post & UOB: Tie-up to distribute HDB home loans
Singapore Post (SingPost) has tied-up with United Overseas Bank (UOB) to distribute UOB HDB Home Loans, and has set up limited purpose branches at four SingPost post offices. The plan is to have up to 24 such post office branches by end 2009, and adds on to the variety of services that SingPost currently offers to customers. Known for its proactive measures in launching initiatives to sustain profits, we view this latest development positively as it is further testament of the group’s desire to be a one-stop-shop service provider for customers. We maintain our BUY rating for SingPost with fair value estimate of S$0.93, though we do note that the flagging economy may weigh on the stock price at least for the short term.
For UOB, this is another interesting avenue to branch into the HDB home loans market and we note that HDB prices have remained fairly resilient despite the recent collapse in most sectors of the economy. We are maintaining our estimates and HOLD rating for now and fair value estimate of S$9.30.
For UOB, this is another interesting avenue to branch into the HDB home loans market and we note that HDB prices have remained fairly resilient despite the recent collapse in most sectors of the economy. We are maintaining our estimates and HOLD rating for now and fair value estimate of S$9.30.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Warren Buffett says economy fell off a cliff
Buffett says economy fell off a cliff in the past 6 months as consumers changed their habits
Billionaire Warren Buffett said unemployment will likely climb a lot higher depending upon how effective the nation's policies are, but he remains optimistic over the long term.
Buffett said the nation's leaders need to support President Barack Obama's efforts to repair the economy because fear is dominating Americans' behavior and the economy has basically followed the worst-case scenario he envisioned.
"It's fallen off a cliff," Buffett said Monday during a live appearance on CNBC. "Not only has the economy slowed down a lot, but people have really changed their habits like I haven't seen."
Buffett said the changes are reflected in the results of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s subsidiaries. He said Berkshire's jewelry companies have suffered, but more people have been willing to switch to Geico to save money on car insurance.
He predicted that unemployment will likely climb a lot higher before the recession is done, but he also reiterated his optimistic long-term view: "Everything will be all right. We do have the greatest economic machine that's ever been created."
Fear and confusion have been driving consumer and investor behavior in recent months, Buffett said.
The nation's leaders need to clear up the confusion before anyone will become more confident, and he said all 535 members of Congress should stop the partisan bickering about solutions.
Buffett said he believes patriotic Republicans and Democrats will realize the nation is engaged in an economic war.
"What is required is a commander in chief that's looked at like a commander in chief in a time of war," Buffett said.
Whatever the government does to help the economy will likely benefit some people who made poor financial decisions, but Buffett said Americans should realize that everyone is in the same boat.
"The people that behaved well are no doubt going to find themselves taking care of the people who didn't behave well," Buffett said.
A little over a week ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders describing the worst of his 44 years at the helm of Berkshire. The Omaha, Neb.-based company reported sharply lower profit because of its largely unrealized $7.5 billion investment and derivative losses.
Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007.
Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.
Buffett said he doesn't regret writing an editorial last fall encouraging people to buy U.S. stocks, but he joked that in hindsight he wishes he'd waited a few months to publish the piece. Since that editorial appeared on Oct. 17, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen from 8,852.22 to close at 6,626.94 on Friday.
Buffett stands by his overall advice that over time owning stocks will be better than so-called safe investments.
"Overall, equities are going to do far better than U.S. government bonds at these prices," he said.
Buffett said he doesn't regret investing $8 billion of Berkshire's money in investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and conglomerate General Electric Co. last fall. Both companies gave Berkshire preferred shares paying 10 percent interest that Buffett said he doesn't think he could get now.
Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, carpet, jewelry, restaurants and utility businesses. And it has major investments in such companies as Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.
Billionaire Warren Buffett said unemployment will likely climb a lot higher depending upon how effective the nation's policies are, but he remains optimistic over the long term.
Buffett said the nation's leaders need to support President Barack Obama's efforts to repair the economy because fear is dominating Americans' behavior and the economy has basically followed the worst-case scenario he envisioned.
"It's fallen off a cliff," Buffett said Monday during a live appearance on CNBC. "Not only has the economy slowed down a lot, but people have really changed their habits like I haven't seen."
Buffett said the changes are reflected in the results of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s subsidiaries. He said Berkshire's jewelry companies have suffered, but more people have been willing to switch to Geico to save money on car insurance.
He predicted that unemployment will likely climb a lot higher before the recession is done, but he also reiterated his optimistic long-term view: "Everything will be all right. We do have the greatest economic machine that's ever been created."
Fear and confusion have been driving consumer and investor behavior in recent months, Buffett said.
The nation's leaders need to clear up the confusion before anyone will become more confident, and he said all 535 members of Congress should stop the partisan bickering about solutions.
Buffett said he believes patriotic Republicans and Democrats will realize the nation is engaged in an economic war.
"What is required is a commander in chief that's looked at like a commander in chief in a time of war," Buffett said.
Whatever the government does to help the economy will likely benefit some people who made poor financial decisions, but Buffett said Americans should realize that everyone is in the same boat.
"The people that behaved well are no doubt going to find themselves taking care of the people who didn't behave well," Buffett said.
A little over a week ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders describing the worst of his 44 years at the helm of Berkshire. The Omaha, Neb.-based company reported sharply lower profit because of its largely unrealized $7.5 billion investment and derivative losses.
Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007.
Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.
Buffett said he doesn't regret writing an editorial last fall encouraging people to buy U.S. stocks, but he joked that in hindsight he wishes he'd waited a few months to publish the piece. Since that editorial appeared on Oct. 17, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen from 8,852.22 to close at 6,626.94 on Friday.
Buffett stands by his overall advice that over time owning stocks will be better than so-called safe investments.
"Overall, equities are going to do far better than U.S. government bonds at these prices," he said.
Buffett said he doesn't regret investing $8 billion of Berkshire's money in investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and conglomerate General Electric Co. last fall. Both companies gave Berkshire preferred shares paying 10 percent interest that Buffett said he doesn't think he could get now.
Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, carpet, jewelry, restaurants and utility businesses. And it has major investments in such companies as Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Stocks or residential property investment?
Needless to say, property and stock markets are the most unlikely places you want your money to be right now. But the question is, given that you have $300,000 to invest now, do you buy a private residential property beside a MRT or a blue chip like DBS for passive income?
Many would argue that in Singapore, buying property would never go wrong. Well, perhaps it is because you have not seen people who have got their hands burnt in property market to live and tell their stories?
Which one offers a higher return and lower risk?
Some parameters of comparison:
DBS: $6.80/share
Assuming you purchased 44 lots.
Dividend per quarter: 10 cents (conservative guesstimate, could be higher or lower)
Income per annum: $17,600
Probability of losing 40% of your $300,000 in 6 months time: 30% (my conservative guess)
Income tax payable: None, as it has already been taxed at source
Yield: 5.89%
Probability of selling and earning a profit in 20 years time: 90% (guesstimate)
Net dividend income at the end of 20 years: $352,000
Assuming a conservative adjustment of 30% error, net dividend income would be: $246,400.
The argument here is that even the best banks in the world can fail, can we even trust to put our money with Singapore blue chips?
There is still a fair chance to lose 100% of our money in stocks.
Next
99 year leasehold Property: E.g: Kovan Melody/Compass heights
Cost: 1000 sq feet, 2 room property purchase @ $580/sq foot, costing $600,000 after stamp duties and other transaction fees. Minor renovations and fixtures have also been accounted.
Loan amount: $300,000 @ 2.5% for 20 years (interest is more likely to be 3.5% on average)
Monthly installment: $1500 (conservatively speaking)
Income from rent: $2100 (conservative estimate)x12= $25,200
Property tax: 10% of $25,000= $2,500
Agent expenses: $1,100
Wear and tear yearly maintenance: $600
Net rental yearly income: $3,000
Yield: 5,400/300,000= 1.0%
Probability of losing 40% of your $300,000 in 6 months time: 30% (my conservative guess)
(Should the property market falls another 20%, the fall in your property price will be $120,000, or 40%.)
Net rental income at the end of 20 years: $60,000
Probability of selling and earning a profit in 20 years time: 99% (based on historical records)
Apparently, property market is a more appealing investment as most people can tap on their CPF funds to finance their property while earning cash returns. From the above example, it is likely that the owner is able to sell the property 20 years later for at least $540,000 and earn a little profit, or carry on renting out the property for a $20,000 annual income.
This risk is considered “lower” as it is unlikely that the property will “fail” due to earthquakes or tsunami.
In the event that nobody wants to rent, the owner can simply move in and enjoy the home himself. You cannot even use the DBS’s branch toilets even if you are a major shareholder!
However, the short term risks are more or less the same. Yet the investment emotions involved are different. The feeling of seeing my property price falling 20% and pain of seeing my investment portfolio falling 50% is totally different even if the amount involved is the same.
Property gives people a sense of security. People need a roof over their heads, no matter what happens. It let investors feel that they can earn some rental income as long as they lower rent. However for stocks, investors do not see themselves owning an essential business. Actually, many businesses are also essential ones. Without them, people cannot own houses or even get a job.
Personally, I feel that property investment carries a higher risk of failure. The rental income might not be stable and one depends on rental income to service the loan. Tenants may default or destroy your house fittings, there might be unhappiness when negotiating new rental contracts or handle difficult tenants.
Still stocks for me for now.
Many would argue that in Singapore, buying property would never go wrong. Well, perhaps it is because you have not seen people who have got their hands burnt in property market to live and tell their stories?
Which one offers a higher return and lower risk?
Some parameters of comparison:
DBS: $6.80/share
Assuming you purchased 44 lots.
Dividend per quarter: 10 cents (conservative guesstimate, could be higher or lower)
Income per annum: $17,600
Probability of losing 40% of your $300,000 in 6 months time: 30% (my conservative guess)
Income tax payable: None, as it has already been taxed at source
Yield: 5.89%
Probability of selling and earning a profit in 20 years time: 90% (guesstimate)
Net dividend income at the end of 20 years: $352,000
Assuming a conservative adjustment of 30% error, net dividend income would be: $246,400.
The argument here is that even the best banks in the world can fail, can we even trust to put our money with Singapore blue chips?
There is still a fair chance to lose 100% of our money in stocks.
Next
99 year leasehold Property: E.g: Kovan Melody/Compass heights
Cost: 1000 sq feet, 2 room property purchase @ $580/sq foot, costing $600,000 after stamp duties and other transaction fees. Minor renovations and fixtures have also been accounted.
Loan amount: $300,000 @ 2.5% for 20 years (interest is more likely to be 3.5% on average)
Monthly installment: $1500 (conservatively speaking)
Income from rent: $2100 (conservative estimate)x12= $25,200
Property tax: 10% of $25,000= $2,500
Agent expenses: $1,100
Wear and tear yearly maintenance: $600
Net rental yearly income: $3,000
Yield: 5,400/300,000= 1.0%
Probability of losing 40% of your $300,000 in 6 months time: 30% (my conservative guess)
(Should the property market falls another 20%, the fall in your property price will be $120,000, or 40%.)
Net rental income at the end of 20 years: $60,000
Probability of selling and earning a profit in 20 years time: 99% (based on historical records)
Apparently, property market is a more appealing investment as most people can tap on their CPF funds to finance their property while earning cash returns. From the above example, it is likely that the owner is able to sell the property 20 years later for at least $540,000 and earn a little profit, or carry on renting out the property for a $20,000 annual income.
This risk is considered “lower” as it is unlikely that the property will “fail” due to earthquakes or tsunami.
In the event that nobody wants to rent, the owner can simply move in and enjoy the home himself. You cannot even use the DBS’s branch toilets even if you are a major shareholder!
However, the short term risks are more or less the same. Yet the investment emotions involved are different. The feeling of seeing my property price falling 20% and pain of seeing my investment portfolio falling 50% is totally different even if the amount involved is the same.
Property gives people a sense of security. People need a roof over their heads, no matter what happens. It let investors feel that they can earn some rental income as long as they lower rent. However for stocks, investors do not see themselves owning an essential business. Actually, many businesses are also essential ones. Without them, people cannot own houses or even get a job.
Personally, I feel that property investment carries a higher risk of failure. The rental income might not be stable and one depends on rental income to service the loan. Tenants may default or destroy your house fittings, there might be unhappiness when negotiating new rental contracts or handle difficult tenants.
Still stocks for me for now.
AusGroup Ltd: Waiting and watching
Summary: We recently caught up with AusGroup Ltd (AusGroup) management. Its 2Q results exceeded our estimates because of a delayed impact of market shrinkage on ongoing projects and some flow through of conservative variation claims from previous quarters. While we have adjusted our estimates slightly to take 2Q figures into account, we still expect significant contractions in 2H09. We have previously commented on AusGroup’s growing pains since FY08 as it transformed itself into a multinational and multiplatform business. The company is finally showing some signs of “growing up”, in our view. The global economic environment is still very uncertain. We stay cautious on revenue and margin estimates and will track the company closely in the months ahead. We maintain our HOLD rating on AusGroup. Our new fair value estimate is S$0.16 or 4x FY09F earnings (prev: S$0.17).
CHINA ZAINO: Q&A with analysts
CHINA ZAINO has FY08 sales statistics that are amazing:
* It sold RMB2.2 billion (up 48.1% year on year) worth of backpacks and luggages.
* It raked in RMB412.1 million in net profit (up 35.0% year on year).
According to a Frost & Sullivan report, China Zaino had a market share of 35.8% in 2006. That may be more than two years ago and the market share may have increased or decreased since, but the company can safely claim to be the No.1 in backpacks in China.
At the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, it was the only PRC backpacks brand associated with the event.
The company generated from operations a healthy RMB 383.8 million. Cash and bank balances stood at RMB800.4 million as at 31 Dec 2008.
Lawrence Lam, CFO. Photo by Sim Kih
Taking analysts through a recent presentation of the financial results, the chief financial officer, Lawrence Lam, said that the company believed it can maintain its 32-33% profit margins this year, although they may fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
For example, Q1 sales and margin are expected to be lower compared to Q4 which is a holiday period ahead of the Chinese New Year.
China Zaino will continue to count on TV advertising (2008 expenditure: RM97 million) as the key way to build its brand, and is budgeting more than RMB100 million for this year.
The advertising and promotion efforts are paying off as seen from increased average selling prices year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
”People ask if it’s necessary to advertise during this economic downturn. On the contrary, I would say it’s a golden opportunity to build brand awareness and loyalty. Our Q4 results were satisfactory because of the TV adverts in the second half of the year,” said the chairman, Chen Xizhong.
Mr Lam explained a few aspects of the financial results, including the jump in trade receivables from RMB 186.7 million in FY07 to RMB 318.6 million FY08.
The reason was simply the higher sales - but not to worry. “In Jan 09, we have received about 80% of the Dec 08 debt.”
Chen Xizhong, chairman, China Zaino. Photo by Sim Kih
For the full year 2008, the trade receivables turnover days was 41 days. The credit terms to distributors are 30 days, 40 days and 60 days. If any distributor owes money for more than 60 days, China Zaino will make a full provision for the debt.
In the FY08 results statement, the company did not have to make any provisions.
On trends, Mr Chen said that his company’s brand of luggage (Dapai) is proving more attractive, value-wise, compared to luxury brands like Samsonite. And aside from business and leisure travelers, he noticed two new major customer groups:
a) Students who use luggage for travel and storage.
b) Production workers who travel to and from their hometowns. Dapai luggages are affordable at 200-400 RMB, as compared to their income of 1,500 RMB a month.
Here are some questions and answers from the analyst briefing session on Tuesday (Mar 3) at Fullerton Hotel:
Q Who are your top 5 customers? Have they been increasing their orders in the last few years?
A They are distributors, especially, in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Individually, they don’t account for too high a percentage of our Group’s revenue. For some of them, it’s 6-8%. They increase their orders every year – we grow, they also grow. Among the top 10, there is some change – if a distributor is not performing well, we will cut his ‘portion’ and give it to another distributor in the same region.
Q Your company has opened outlets in many parts of China but not focused on your home province, Fujian. Now that you have 3,250 outlets, do you intend to expand into Fujian?
TV advert for Dapai backpags
A We wanted to expand in other parts of China through distributors and planned to do sales on our own in Fujian. In fact, this year we plan to open 150-160 points of sale in Fujian. These are shops in shops (supermarkets, hypermarts) and some standalone shops.
Q Regarding your cash balance, you said you have gotten 80% of the accounts receivables, so now your balance is higher than RMB 800 million as at end of the year?
A It is higher. But after we sign a contract for the construction of our new factory and contracts for TV advertisements, the cash will diminish steadily. Between RMB 140-200 million will be for the factory, RMB 50 million for billboards, RMB80 m in dividends for shareholders, RMB100-150 million for TV advertisements.
So the total is up to RMB500 million. For opening points of sales in Fujian, we will spend RMB100-150 million this year.
As for dividends, I would like to pay it every year, so when I come to Singapore I get smiles from the shareholders!
Q Regarding your plan to open your own retail outlets in Fujian – isn’t there a risk? Why don’t you want to go through distributors?
A It’s a good idea for business development because right now we give a big discount to the distributors. As we are based in Fujian and have close connections with our end-users, we believe we can earn this part of the sales money. We will take care of the rental, the staff and other expenses of the shops.
Q For FY08, you have a 1.97-cent-a-share dividend payout, which is 20% of the net profit. Do you have a policy for FY09?
A We will declare at least 20% of the profit after tax.
* It sold RMB2.2 billion (up 48.1% year on year) worth of backpacks and luggages.
* It raked in RMB412.1 million in net profit (up 35.0% year on year).
According to a Frost & Sullivan report, China Zaino had a market share of 35.8% in 2006. That may be more than two years ago and the market share may have increased or decreased since, but the company can safely claim to be the No.1 in backpacks in China.
At the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, it was the only PRC backpacks brand associated with the event.
The company generated from operations a healthy RMB 383.8 million. Cash and bank balances stood at RMB800.4 million as at 31 Dec 2008.
Lawrence Lam, CFO. Photo by Sim Kih
Taking analysts through a recent presentation of the financial results, the chief financial officer, Lawrence Lam, said that the company believed it can maintain its 32-33% profit margins this year, although they may fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
For example, Q1 sales and margin are expected to be lower compared to Q4 which is a holiday period ahead of the Chinese New Year.
China Zaino will continue to count on TV advertising (2008 expenditure: RM97 million) as the key way to build its brand, and is budgeting more than RMB100 million for this year.
The advertising and promotion efforts are paying off as seen from increased average selling prices year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
”People ask if it’s necessary to advertise during this economic downturn. On the contrary, I would say it’s a golden opportunity to build brand awareness and loyalty. Our Q4 results were satisfactory because of the TV adverts in the second half of the year,” said the chairman, Chen Xizhong.
Mr Lam explained a few aspects of the financial results, including the jump in trade receivables from RMB 186.7 million in FY07 to RMB 318.6 million FY08.
The reason was simply the higher sales - but not to worry. “In Jan 09, we have received about 80% of the Dec 08 debt.”
Chen Xizhong, chairman, China Zaino. Photo by Sim Kih
For the full year 2008, the trade receivables turnover days was 41 days. The credit terms to distributors are 30 days, 40 days and 60 days. If any distributor owes money for more than 60 days, China Zaino will make a full provision for the debt.
In the FY08 results statement, the company did not have to make any provisions.
On trends, Mr Chen said that his company’s brand of luggage (Dapai) is proving more attractive, value-wise, compared to luxury brands like Samsonite. And aside from business and leisure travelers, he noticed two new major customer groups:
a) Students who use luggage for travel and storage.
b) Production workers who travel to and from their hometowns. Dapai luggages are affordable at 200-400 RMB, as compared to their income of 1,500 RMB a month.
Here are some questions and answers from the analyst briefing session on Tuesday (Mar 3) at Fullerton Hotel:
Q Who are your top 5 customers? Have they been increasing their orders in the last few years?
A They are distributors, especially, in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Individually, they don’t account for too high a percentage of our Group’s revenue. For some of them, it’s 6-8%. They increase their orders every year – we grow, they also grow. Among the top 10, there is some change – if a distributor is not performing well, we will cut his ‘portion’ and give it to another distributor in the same region.
Q Your company has opened outlets in many parts of China but not focused on your home province, Fujian. Now that you have 3,250 outlets, do you intend to expand into Fujian?
TV advert for Dapai backpags
A We wanted to expand in other parts of China through distributors and planned to do sales on our own in Fujian. In fact, this year we plan to open 150-160 points of sale in Fujian. These are shops in shops (supermarkets, hypermarts) and some standalone shops.
Q Regarding your cash balance, you said you have gotten 80% of the accounts receivables, so now your balance is higher than RMB 800 million as at end of the year?
A It is higher. But after we sign a contract for the construction of our new factory and contracts for TV advertisements, the cash will diminish steadily. Between RMB 140-200 million will be for the factory, RMB 50 million for billboards, RMB80 m in dividends for shareholders, RMB100-150 million for TV advertisements.
So the total is up to RMB500 million. For opening points of sales in Fujian, we will spend RMB100-150 million this year.
As for dividends, I would like to pay it every year, so when I come to Singapore I get smiles from the shareholders!
Q Regarding your plan to open your own retail outlets in Fujian – isn’t there a risk? Why don’t you want to go through distributors?
A It’s a good idea for business development because right now we give a big discount to the distributors. As we are based in Fujian and have close connections with our end-users, we believe we can earn this part of the sales money. We will take care of the rental, the staff and other expenses of the shops.
Q For FY08, you have a 1.97-cent-a-share dividend payout, which is 20% of the net profit. Do you have a policy for FY09?
A We will declare at least 20% of the profit after tax.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
华尔街日报:道指已经作别7000点，迎来了6000点时代
道指已经作别7000点，迎来了6000点时代。
美国股市最近的暴跌，以及保险巨头美国国际集团(AIG)创纪录的巨亏，再次启动了华尔街最锺爱的游戏：猜猜道指究竟能跌到多低？
要记住这一点，虽然每个人都有自己的观点，但没人能准确地知道答案。如果你想试图基于市场的下一步动态来交易的话，我会对你说：祝你好运。
我曾经开玩笑地说，道指可能要在今年9月20日、在3600点附近才能触底。为什么呢？当然是为了纪念《道指36000点》出版十周年啦。这么说吧，反正市场早晚要触底，反正也没人能拿出更好的主意了。
人称魔鬼辞典的墨菲定律(Murphy's Law)不是说了嘛，当连你最心爱的人都变成了咆哮的巨熊（看空者）时，就是传说中市场崩溃之时。如果真是这样，或许我还是快点行动起来，了结仓位吧。
说到投资问题，我认为呆在两条30码线之间算得上是明智之举。在2007年股市大涨、每个人都喜形于色之时，我的看法则相当悲观。但是当股市大跌、每个人都惊慌失措之际，我则开始四下寻找投资机会了（我找到了一些通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)和市政债券，它们走势还不错）。显然，股票估值一度极富吸引力 ──这种情况一直持续到去年9月时。当时第一次救援努力以失败收场，全球投资者的信心当然无存，整个局面全然改观。
上周五，一位顶尖基金经理私下和我交流的话让我深感震惊，他说：我现在看不到任何理由去持有现金资产之外的投资品。这位仁兄在投资问题上拥有灵活的处置权，而且他也不是铁杆的看空人士。他正在卖出所有资产。这位基金经理认为，收益预期下调会和市盈率的不断下滑交替出现；在他看来，整个系统的巨额负债将会把资产及收益吞没，发出巨大的吞咽声。他认为标准普尔指数早晚会跌到500点，这比现在的水平还要再跌去三分之一。
来自金融领域的消息无一例外都很糟糕，从美国国际集团(AIG)、到花旗集团(Citigroup)、再到拥有金融子公司的通用电气(General Electric)。不过，这种状况已经持续一年了。在眼下这个市场中，金融类股应该获得一定的尊重，就象前副总统约翰·南斯·加纳(John Nance Garner)对他的职位一样的尊重。想想这位副总统所说的那句“不值一桶温吞口水”吧。投资者曾有好几个月的时间来把花旗股票脱手，在11月初时该股的身价还将近15美元。现在则没人知道这些金融类股到底还值多少钱，连董事会也不例外。
上周，一些看空人士告诉我，下一波坏消息可能来自保险企业。美国国际集团的巨亏真是飞快就报了出来。只有极端的乐观主义者才曾认为麻烦将到此为止。
但是特别有趣的一点是连抗跌股也开始大跌了。JM Smucker、家乐氏(Kellogg Co.)、美国电力公司(American Electric Power Co.)、宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., 又名:宝硷公司)、强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)、Reynolds American以及美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)都纷纷从悬崖上滚落。人们认为它们都是些基本面非常强劲，应能保持坚挺的企业。许多公司预期收益都很高。
菲利普莫里斯国际公司(Philip Morris International Inc., 在拆分后市场普遍谓之奥驰亚集团(Altria Group Inc.))的股票自1月中旬以来已经跌了2美元。该公司宣称将会有7.5%的预期收益。
在我看来，这些现象说明眼下要么是个吸纳良机，要么就是市场堕入地狱的先兆。
美国股市最近的暴跌，以及保险巨头美国国际集团(AIG)创纪录的巨亏，再次启动了华尔街最锺爱的游戏：猜猜道指究竟能跌到多低？
要记住这一点，虽然每个人都有自己的观点，但没人能准确地知道答案。如果你想试图基于市场的下一步动态来交易的话，我会对你说：祝你好运。
我曾经开玩笑地说，道指可能要在今年9月20日、在3600点附近才能触底。为什么呢？当然是为了纪念《道指36000点》出版十周年啦。这么说吧，反正市场早晚要触底，反正也没人能拿出更好的主意了。
人称魔鬼辞典的墨菲定律(Murphy's Law)不是说了嘛，当连你最心爱的人都变成了咆哮的巨熊（看空者）时，就是传说中市场崩溃之时。如果真是这样，或许我还是快点行动起来，了结仓位吧。
说到投资问题，我认为呆在两条30码线之间算得上是明智之举。在2007年股市大涨、每个人都喜形于色之时，我的看法则相当悲观。但是当股市大跌、每个人都惊慌失措之际，我则开始四下寻找投资机会了（我找到了一些通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)和市政债券，它们走势还不错）。显然，股票估值一度极富吸引力 ──这种情况一直持续到去年9月时。当时第一次救援努力以失败收场，全球投资者的信心当然无存，整个局面全然改观。
上周五，一位顶尖基金经理私下和我交流的话让我深感震惊，他说：我现在看不到任何理由去持有现金资产之外的投资品。这位仁兄在投资问题上拥有灵活的处置权，而且他也不是铁杆的看空人士。他正在卖出所有资产。这位基金经理认为，收益预期下调会和市盈率的不断下滑交替出现；在他看来，整个系统的巨额负债将会把资产及收益吞没，发出巨大的吞咽声。他认为标准普尔指数早晚会跌到500点，这比现在的水平还要再跌去三分之一。
来自金融领域的消息无一例外都很糟糕，从美国国际集团(AIG)、到花旗集团(Citigroup)、再到拥有金融子公司的通用电气(General Electric)。不过，这种状况已经持续一年了。在眼下这个市场中，金融类股应该获得一定的尊重，就象前副总统约翰·南斯·加纳(John Nance Garner)对他的职位一样的尊重。想想这位副总统所说的那句“不值一桶温吞口水”吧。投资者曾有好几个月的时间来把花旗股票脱手，在11月初时该股的身价还将近15美元。现在则没人知道这些金融类股到底还值多少钱，连董事会也不例外。
上周，一些看空人士告诉我，下一波坏消息可能来自保险企业。美国国际集团的巨亏真是飞快就报了出来。只有极端的乐观主义者才曾认为麻烦将到此为止。
但是特别有趣的一点是连抗跌股也开始大跌了。JM Smucker、家乐氏(Kellogg Co.)、美国电力公司(American Electric Power Co.)、宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., 又名:宝硷公司)、强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)、Reynolds American以及美国电话电报公司(AT&T Inc.)都纷纷从悬崖上滚落。人们认为它们都是些基本面非常强劲，应能保持坚挺的企业。许多公司预期收益都很高。
菲利普莫里斯国际公司(Philip Morris International Inc., 在拆分后市场普遍谓之奥驰亚集团(Altria Group Inc.))的股票自1月中旬以来已经跌了2美元。该公司宣称将会有7.5%的预期收益。
在我看来，这些现象说明眼下要么是个吸纳良机，要么就是市场堕入地狱的先兆。
More mass market projects to launch
Developers are planning to launch more mass market projects this weekend to take advantage of a recent surge in buying interest.
Hiap Hoe Group, a niche developer, will officially launch its 118-unit The Beverly, located at Toh Tuck Road, this Saturday. The starting selling price is $648 per square foot (psf), which Hiap Hoe says is an 'attractive starting selling price'.
'We have designed The Beverly for those looking for affordable, high-quality residential developments in a good location,' said Teo Ho Beng, the company's managing director.
The Beverly's two, three and four-bedroom apartments range from 1,120 sq ft to 4,187 sq ft, while its double-storey penthouses range from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft and are each outfitted with a private roof garden and pool.
On the other side of the island at Pasir Ris, Sustained Land Pte Ltd will also officially launch Coastal Breeze Residences come this weekend. Two and three-bedroom units at the 63-unit development will sell for $610-$660 psf.
Sustained Land has sold 13 units in Coastal Breeze Residences since the start of 2008in a soft launch. The units, which were mostly prime apartments on higher floors, went at an average price of $690 psf.
The remaining units are mostly three-bedders between 1159 sq ft and 1356 sq ft in size and there are also duplex penthouses. In terms of absolute value, for example, the price for a three-room 1159 sq ft unit starts at $712,000.
Meanwhile, the UOL Group is expected to launch its 646-unit Double Bay Residences in Simei sometime next week. Market talk has it that the project could be launched at $650-680 psf.
The three projects are coming hot on the heels of two successful launches earlier this month. Units at Frasers Centrepoint's Caspian condominium near Jurong Lake and Alexis @ Alexandra, a project by joint venture partners Yi Kai Group and Fission Group, sold quickly upon the projects' launches.
One market insider said that developers are taking pricing cues from each other, and making sure their newly launched projects are priced to sell. 'There is a sense that people will only be willing to buy projects in the $600-plus psf range, and also only units that don't cost too much in total. People don't really want to pay more than $600,000 or $700,000-plus in these times,' he said.
Developers are also throwing in more upmarket features into their mass market offerings to entice buyers. Each of The Beverly's 118 apartments is served by private lifts that open into the lobby of its interior. UOL's Double Bay Residences will also offer extras such as full-length windows in the kitchen, the company has said.
Hiap Hoe Group, a niche developer, will officially launch its 118-unit The Beverly, located at Toh Tuck Road, this Saturday. The starting selling price is $648 per square foot (psf), which Hiap Hoe says is an 'attractive starting selling price'.
'We have designed The Beverly for those looking for affordable, high-quality residential developments in a good location,' said Teo Ho Beng, the company's managing director.
The Beverly's two, three and four-bedroom apartments range from 1,120 sq ft to 4,187 sq ft, while its double-storey penthouses range from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft and are each outfitted with a private roof garden and pool.
On the other side of the island at Pasir Ris, Sustained Land Pte Ltd will also officially launch Coastal Breeze Residences come this weekend. Two and three-bedroom units at the 63-unit development will sell for $610-$660 psf.
Sustained Land has sold 13 units in Coastal Breeze Residences since the start of 2008in a soft launch. The units, which were mostly prime apartments on higher floors, went at an average price of $690 psf.
The remaining units are mostly three-bedders between 1159 sq ft and 1356 sq ft in size and there are also duplex penthouses. In terms of absolute value, for example, the price for a three-room 1159 sq ft unit starts at $712,000.
Meanwhile, the UOL Group is expected to launch its 646-unit Double Bay Residences in Simei sometime next week. Market talk has it that the project could be launched at $650-680 psf.
The three projects are coming hot on the heels of two successful launches earlier this month. Units at Frasers Centrepoint's Caspian condominium near Jurong Lake and Alexis @ Alexandra, a project by joint venture partners Yi Kai Group and Fission Group, sold quickly upon the projects' launches.
One market insider said that developers are taking pricing cues from each other, and making sure their newly launched projects are priced to sell. 'There is a sense that people will only be willing to buy projects in the $600-plus psf range, and also only units that don't cost too much in total. People don't really want to pay more than $600,000 or $700,000-plus in these times,' he said.
Developers are also throwing in more upmarket features into their mass market offerings to entice buyers. Each of The Beverly's 118 apartments is served by private lifts that open into the lobby of its interior. UOL's Double Bay Residences will also offer extras such as full-length windows in the kitchen, the company has said.
朱成志：賺合理的錢
台灣股票市場風起雲湧，許多當年不可一世的金主、作手、主力或業內，如今不是被迫退出江湖，就是窮困潦倒，萬寶週刊社長朱成志秉持「賺合理的錢，走長遠的路」信念，愈戰愈勇，從小牌的證券分析師，成為投資人眼中的大師。
石油危機 家產變成芭樂票
朱家早期曾是股市金主兼大戶，後來遇上全球石油危機，台股崩跌，主力死的死、逃的逃，朱家萬貫家財只換來一保險箱的借據與芭樂票。遭逢遽變的朱成志，見識股海無情，也下定決心要從股票市場「站起來」。
49年次的朱成志畢業於大同工學院機械系，畢業後，先在文化圈繞了一圈，日本文摘、牛頓雜誌與遠見雜誌，他都待過。
錢堆裡混 老老實實做研究
民國77年，朱成志離開遠見雜誌，投入證券市場，先後在大順證券、華昌投顧、國華投顧任職，並曾擔任中央國際投信董事長。當時的台灣錢不只淹腳目，簡直淹到肚臍了，股票天天漲停板，投資人買到就賺到，券商營業員1個月就領9個月薪水，股票市場滿地都是鈔票。
老朱在錢堆裡打滾，卻彷彿視而不見，照樣老老實實做研究、寫報告，每天騎著摩托車趕場演講、上下班。朱成志不是跟新台幣有仇，只因為他堅持「賺合理的錢」，他要求「年薪100萬元」，整天埋頭寫報告，執意成為名符其實的「證券分析師」。「當時的收入已經可以讓我過不錯的日子，我覺得足夠了。」
朱成志說，賺多少錢不重要，重要的是，賺該賺的錢！
看盡起落 學會務實金錢觀
79年股市萬點行情時期，一名在證券商VIP（貴賓室）下單的富太太抱怨，逛街時掉了一隻價值160萬的耳環，1個月後，這位富太太賠掉3億，從此音訊沓然。
某券商超級業務員月領百萬元，卻總是苦著臉，超級業務告訴老朱：「錢太多了，壓力好大！ 」超級營業員三不五時請同事吃大餐、上酒店，唯一的要求是，大家要講笑話給他聽，為他紓壓；不久以後，這位營業員落跑了，留下逾億元的債務不知去向。
看盡了股票市場大起大落，朱成志學會務實的金錢觀：「學會理財很重要，但是學會不貪心、賺合理的錢更重要！」不貪心，才能量力而為，賺到該賺的錢。
累積財富 成功關鍵在時間
對朱成志來說，累積財富像滾雪球，留在雪地上的時間愈久，雪球才會愈滾愈大，「時間」是投資成功最重要的元素，許多人抱著一夕致富的心態買股票，結果落得一夕破產下場。
石油危機 家產變成芭樂票
朱家早期曾是股市金主兼大戶，後來遇上全球石油危機，台股崩跌，主力死的死、逃的逃，朱家萬貫家財只換來一保險箱的借據與芭樂票。遭逢遽變的朱成志，見識股海無情，也下定決心要從股票市場「站起來」。
49年次的朱成志畢業於大同工學院機械系，畢業後，先在文化圈繞了一圈，日本文摘、牛頓雜誌與遠見雜誌，他都待過。
錢堆裡混 老老實實做研究
民國77年，朱成志離開遠見雜誌，投入證券市場，先後在大順證券、華昌投顧、國華投顧任職，並曾擔任中央國際投信董事長。當時的台灣錢不只淹腳目，簡直淹到肚臍了，股票天天漲停板，投資人買到就賺到，券商營業員1個月就領9個月薪水，股票市場滿地都是鈔票。
老朱在錢堆裡打滾，卻彷彿視而不見，照樣老老實實做研究、寫報告，每天騎著摩托車趕場演講、上下班。朱成志不是跟新台幣有仇，只因為他堅持「賺合理的錢」，他要求「年薪100萬元」，整天埋頭寫報告，執意成為名符其實的「證券分析師」。「當時的收入已經可以讓我過不錯的日子，我覺得足夠了。」
朱成志說，賺多少錢不重要，重要的是，賺該賺的錢！
看盡起落 學會務實金錢觀
79年股市萬點行情時期，一名在證券商VIP（貴賓室）下單的富太太抱怨，逛街時掉了一隻價值160萬的耳環，1個月後，這位富太太賠掉3億，從此音訊沓然。
某券商超級業務員月領百萬元，卻總是苦著臉，超級業務告訴老朱：「錢太多了，壓力好大！ 」超級營業員三不五時請同事吃大餐、上酒店，唯一的要求是，大家要講笑話給他聽，為他紓壓；不久以後，這位營業員落跑了，留下逾億元的債務不知去向。
看盡了股票市場大起大落，朱成志學會務實的金錢觀：「學會理財很重要，但是學會不貪心、賺合理的錢更重要！」不貪心，才能量力而為，賺到該賺的錢。
累積財富 成功關鍵在時間
對朱成志來說，累積財富像滾雪球，留在雪地上的時間愈久，雪球才會愈滾愈大，「時間」是投資成功最重要的元素，許多人抱著一夕致富的心態買股票，結果落得一夕破產下場。
中国价值投资谁领风骚大讨论
过去的两年与中国资本市场复杂变化相致的是中国价值投资领军人物的做法以及遭遇，更为多样性。但斌为首的相当多的价值投资选择了不动坚持，而赵丹阳为代表的极少一部分人在一定的点位彻底退出了，李驰为代表的一部分价值投资者，出来又进去。
他们这种不同的做法代表了不同的价值投资思想体系和理念，他们不同做法的结果也给他们个人的投资结果带来了不同的社会评价，尤其以赵丹阳和但斌的做法引起的争论更多，二者都宣称自己是价值投资，但二者的做法截然不同。赵丹阳坚持在3000点之上清盘，而但斌坚持在6000点上持股，双方都是执着的，但是谁的做法更符合价值投资的基本精神和基本理念，或者说两个人的做法都是合乎价值投资基本逻辑，现在还没有办法做出总的评价。
不管怎么说，赵丹阳3000点的清盘和但斌6000点上的坚持都是中国价值投资发展史上的重大事件，甚至是历史事件。他们的做法对中国价值投资的发展方向都产生了长远的影响，近期赵丹阳再次出山，为中国价值投资再次增加新内容。因此深入剖析探讨他们二者行为的合理性以及二者行为背后的理论体系的合理性，对于中国价值投资者是极其珍贵的案例和素才。凌通价值网做为民间价值投资者的公共交流平台，愿意发起这们一个讨论，目的是为了探求真理，目的是为了丰富提高中国价值投资队伍的理论和实践水平，欢迎所有的价值投资者发起评论。
2007年底08年初，媒体刊载着对中国私募基金领军人物赵丹阳的评说，文中透露出的信息是赵丹阳所管理的几支私募基金在2007年整体上只取得了20%左右的收益，成绩极差。而导致赵丹阳取得如此成绩的原因在于，赵丹阳在3000点之上看空 A股，在5月份全面空仓了。因此，全年下来只有这么一点收益。面对这样一个在中国资本市场上有着深刻含意的代表性事件，凌通有如下几点深刻的思考：
一、市场普遍对赵丹阳如此低的收益负面看待有失客观，认为赵丹阳在牛市中只取得这么一点的收益，属于水平太差，对此，凌通并不这么看。我们觉得赵丹阳在3000点上看空，并且全面清仓，从最终的结果来看，明显不如在6000点上还在奋战的大部分投资人。然而，赵丹阳看空并且清仓，固守了某种有生命力的逻辑和理念。赵丹阳的离场毫无疑问是经过深思熟虑的，他的离场最终的结果是非常不好的，但他当时离场，并且始终没有进来，凌通认为赵丹阳在基本行为准则上是有深刻的原则和体系的。这种原则和体系有时候虽然不能够获取超额收益，但对于保障投资人的安全和长寿具有意义。作为一个价值投资者，认为赵丹阳收益率在牛市里很差，就给予全面的负面评价，这种观点并不客观。如果在资金推动和某种非常态的流动性过剩背景下，借助于牛市的背景取得了非常好的收益，从某种程度上这种收益可能并不是一种硬功夫，也不是一种可以在资本市场上成为长青树的保障。而赵丹阳的那种与众不同的，最终给他导致很大困境的行为和操作反而是可以成为长青树的理由和保障。
赵丹阳的做法至少证明了一点，赵丹阳一方面有逻辑体系，另一方面有非常独特的个性。从这一点上讲，赵丹阳具备一个好的资产管理人的特征。
二、毕竟赵丹阳在2007年的成绩极差，赵丹阳的问题出在哪里呢？凌通认为赵丹阳的问题出在没有做到决策中庸化，太过于相信自己，对未来的不确定性和多元走势没有客观的认识，对中国资本市场的特殊结构没有充分的考虑，只凭借了普遍性的价值投资基本原理，而没有考虑在一个具体市场的特殊性，并且在决策操作过程中不给自己留余地，操作极端化了。
儒家有一种重要的思想，就是在做任何决策的过程中一定要“执两端，用中间”，其含意是考虑问题的时候一定要把正负两种极端情况充分考虑到，同时，在具体决策的时候要向中间靠拢，不要太过极端。《史记》中有一段话叫：“凡文事必有武备，凡武事必有文备。”这句话的含意是如果一个国家要和另一个国家打仗，要提前准备好和谈方案，在与另一个国家友好相处的过程中，要提前准备好打仗的方案。可以看到无论儒家还是《史记》都有两手准备的思想。
我们在投资实践中也应该这样，不能单赌一边，当然更不能单赌一支股票。不管有多么充足的理由和事实证明市场要跌，你都不能不留后手。某一支股票，不管有多么充足的理由证明它要涨，你都不能单买一支。当确定性非常充分的时候，你可以适当增加它的仓位比例，但不能采取极端操作。因为，事情的发展是有必然的不确定的。我们必须相信自己对市场和公司未来走势的判断，这是天经地义的。但是，我们也必须相信，自己有必然的认识盲点，我们不可能把影响市场变化的所有因素都考虑到。在这种情况下，应该通过仓位结构来应对多种变化局面，如果看空的时候仓位要少一点，资金要大一点，但不空仓 ; 如果看涨的时候，仓位要重一些，资金要少一点，但不满仓。在任何情况下都不轻易的空仓，当然也不轻易的满仓。仓位组合中多持有几支股票，非常看好的稍微多一点，一般性看好的也持有一点，把个股风险分散掉，当需要把整个仓位整体性降低的时候不要单减一支股票，要看好的和不看好的都减一点，即便是对一支股票的减持也要分多次，逐级减持，不要一次性退出。这些就是我们所说的决策中庸化在具体操作中的含意。
赵丹阳在5月份由于看坏就一股不留，就全面清仓的做法犯了一个技术性和技巧性错误。如果赵丹阳的减仓步骤是分级减持，3000点出一部分、4000点出一部分、5000点出一部分、6000点出一部分，最后在任何条件下都留一部分，他就不会遇到这种困境。遗憾的是赵丹阳采取了绝对的做法、采取了极端的做法和非中庸的做法。
赵丹阳一个有个性的基金经理，让我们祝他越走越好！
他们这种不同的做法代表了不同的价值投资思想体系和理念，他们不同做法的结果也给他们个人的投资结果带来了不同的社会评价，尤其以赵丹阳和但斌的做法引起的争论更多，二者都宣称自己是价值投资，但二者的做法截然不同。赵丹阳坚持在3000点之上清盘，而但斌坚持在6000点上持股，双方都是执着的，但是谁的做法更符合价值投资的基本精神和基本理念，或者说两个人的做法都是合乎价值投资基本逻辑，现在还没有办法做出总的评价。
不管怎么说，赵丹阳3000点的清盘和但斌6000点上的坚持都是中国价值投资发展史上的重大事件，甚至是历史事件。他们的做法对中国价值投资的发展方向都产生了长远的影响，近期赵丹阳再次出山，为中国价值投资再次增加新内容。因此深入剖析探讨他们二者行为的合理性以及二者行为背后的理论体系的合理性，对于中国价值投资者是极其珍贵的案例和素才。凌通价值网做为民间价值投资者的公共交流平台，愿意发起这们一个讨论，目的是为了探求真理，目的是为了丰富提高中国价值投资队伍的理论和实践水平，欢迎所有的价值投资者发起评论。
2007年底08年初，媒体刊载着对中国私募基金领军人物赵丹阳的评说，文中透露出的信息是赵丹阳所管理的几支私募基金在2007年整体上只取得了20%左右的收益，成绩极差。而导致赵丹阳取得如此成绩的原因在于，赵丹阳在3000点之上看空 A股，在5月份全面空仓了。因此，全年下来只有这么一点收益。面对这样一个在中国资本市场上有着深刻含意的代表性事件，凌通有如下几点深刻的思考：
一、市场普遍对赵丹阳如此低的收益负面看待有失客观，认为赵丹阳在牛市中只取得这么一点的收益，属于水平太差，对此，凌通并不这么看。我们觉得赵丹阳在3000点上看空，并且全面清仓，从最终的结果来看，明显不如在6000点上还在奋战的大部分投资人。然而，赵丹阳看空并且清仓，固守了某种有生命力的逻辑和理念。赵丹阳的离场毫无疑问是经过深思熟虑的，他的离场最终的结果是非常不好的，但他当时离场，并且始终没有进来，凌通认为赵丹阳在基本行为准则上是有深刻的原则和体系的。这种原则和体系有时候虽然不能够获取超额收益，但对于保障投资人的安全和长寿具有意义。作为一个价值投资者，认为赵丹阳收益率在牛市里很差，就给予全面的负面评价，这种观点并不客观。如果在资金推动和某种非常态的流动性过剩背景下，借助于牛市的背景取得了非常好的收益，从某种程度上这种收益可能并不是一种硬功夫，也不是一种可以在资本市场上成为长青树的保障。而赵丹阳的那种与众不同的，最终给他导致很大困境的行为和操作反而是可以成为长青树的理由和保障。
赵丹阳的做法至少证明了一点，赵丹阳一方面有逻辑体系，另一方面有非常独特的个性。从这一点上讲，赵丹阳具备一个好的资产管理人的特征。
二、毕竟赵丹阳在2007年的成绩极差，赵丹阳的问题出在哪里呢？凌通认为赵丹阳的问题出在没有做到决策中庸化，太过于相信自己，对未来的不确定性和多元走势没有客观的认识，对中国资本市场的特殊结构没有充分的考虑，只凭借了普遍性的价值投资基本原理，而没有考虑在一个具体市场的特殊性，并且在决策操作过程中不给自己留余地，操作极端化了。
儒家有一种重要的思想，就是在做任何决策的过程中一定要“执两端，用中间”，其含意是考虑问题的时候一定要把正负两种极端情况充分考虑到，同时，在具体决策的时候要向中间靠拢，不要太过极端。《史记》中有一段话叫：“凡文事必有武备，凡武事必有文备。”这句话的含意是如果一个国家要和另一个国家打仗，要提前准备好和谈方案，在与另一个国家友好相处的过程中，要提前准备好打仗的方案。可以看到无论儒家还是《史记》都有两手准备的思想。
我们在投资实践中也应该这样，不能单赌一边，当然更不能单赌一支股票。不管有多么充足的理由和事实证明市场要跌，你都不能不留后手。某一支股票，不管有多么充足的理由证明它要涨，你都不能单买一支。当确定性非常充分的时候，你可以适当增加它的仓位比例，但不能采取极端操作。因为，事情的发展是有必然的不确定的。我们必须相信自己对市场和公司未来走势的判断，这是天经地义的。但是，我们也必须相信，自己有必然的认识盲点，我们不可能把影响市场变化的所有因素都考虑到。在这种情况下，应该通过仓位结构来应对多种变化局面，如果看空的时候仓位要少一点，资金要大一点，但不空仓 ; 如果看涨的时候，仓位要重一些，资金要少一点，但不满仓。在任何情况下都不轻易的空仓，当然也不轻易的满仓。仓位组合中多持有几支股票，非常看好的稍微多一点，一般性看好的也持有一点，把个股风险分散掉，当需要把整个仓位整体性降低的时候不要单减一支股票，要看好的和不看好的都减一点，即便是对一支股票的减持也要分多次，逐级减持，不要一次性退出。这些就是我们所说的决策中庸化在具体操作中的含意。
赵丹阳在5月份由于看坏就一股不留，就全面清仓的做法犯了一个技术性和技巧性错误。如果赵丹阳的减仓步骤是分级减持，3000点出一部分、4000点出一部分、5000点出一部分、6000点出一部分，最后在任何条件下都留一部分，他就不会遇到这种困境。遗憾的是赵丹阳采取了绝对的做法、采取了极端的做法和非中庸的做法。
赵丹阳一个有个性的基金经理，让我们祝他越走越好！
一个私募的空仓之旅
本轮市场针对1664点低点的反弹，发出了A股持续下跌以来的最强音，众多个股的涨幅超过了一倍，在赚得“盆满钵盈”者中踏空者也大有人在。
刘厉剑（化名）是一位踏入A股市场十多年的资深投资者，同时也是当地一位较为知名的私募基金经理。然而，就是在本轮的反弹中，刘厉剑却成了踏空者。
“他的性格中就是包含了谨慎二字。”刘厉剑的朋友告诉《第一财经日报》，他们曾经开玩笑，如果给刘厉剑一百万，他可以管理得很好，不会亏钱但是也不会出现超额收益。
事实上，刘厉剑朋友的话正是印证了刘厉剑在这轮市场的表现。从2007年10月份暴跌之前开始，刘厉剑就开始选择了空仓策略，并且一直延续到了目前。
“这轮我完全踏空啦，我认为这轮反弹没有任何基本面的支撑，对于我们这样的机构而言，对于客户托付的资产需要有极高的责任心。”刘厉剑表示，空仓的根本原因还是在于他坚持认为本轮反弹没有坚实的基本面支撑，资金推动型的上涨并没有持久力，稍有不慎就可能会被套进去。
尽管刘厉剑依然保持着说话不紧不慢的语调，但是语气中似乎仍有稍许的焦虑。显然，面对如此强势反弹，如果完全踏空，来自客户的压力也是巨大的。
不过刘厉剑却笑称，由于与客户合作时间已经很长了，相互之间建立了彼此的信任，因此客户流失的并不多，关键还在于信任二字。
在去年的漫漫熊市中，刘厉剑的空仓策略成功地回避了风险，他也开始转型去做股权投资等一级市场。不过收效有多少，或者只有他自己清楚。
即使是踏空至现在，刘厉剑依然坚定地看空，甚至认为市场的下一轮低点可能至1600点，甚至更低。
“美国经济目前仍然没有企稳的迹象，只有到年终甚至是下半年才能看清市场的走势。”刘厉剑表示，也许只有到那个时候才是考虑建仓的时机。
空仓让刘厉剑看起来既轻松又焦虑，原先联系的时候一直都是显得忙忙碌碌的刘厉剑难得在近期开始睡起了午觉，不知道是春困的原因还是真的开始有所放松。对于他的规划，按照此前的说法，就是挣到了足够的钱之后出国读个MBA。目前是提前放松，还是等待时机，谁也不知道。
同2007年市场火爆时期比，刘厉剑表现得更加淡定，彼时的忙忙碌碌，每天见客户吃饭研究券商报告，以及出差调研，如今似乎都减少了许多。空仓带来的不仅仅是工作上的清闲，心里的压力是否存在？谁知道呢？
刘厉剑（化名）是一位踏入A股市场十多年的资深投资者，同时也是当地一位较为知名的私募基金经理。然而，就是在本轮的反弹中，刘厉剑却成了踏空者。
“他的性格中就是包含了谨慎二字。”刘厉剑的朋友告诉《第一财经日报》，他们曾经开玩笑，如果给刘厉剑一百万，他可以管理得很好，不会亏钱但是也不会出现超额收益。
事实上，刘厉剑朋友的话正是印证了刘厉剑在这轮市场的表现。从2007年10月份暴跌之前开始，刘厉剑就开始选择了空仓策略，并且一直延续到了目前。
“这轮我完全踏空啦，我认为这轮反弹没有任何基本面的支撑，对于我们这样的机构而言，对于客户托付的资产需要有极高的责任心。”刘厉剑表示，空仓的根本原因还是在于他坚持认为本轮反弹没有坚实的基本面支撑，资金推动型的上涨并没有持久力，稍有不慎就可能会被套进去。
尽管刘厉剑依然保持着说话不紧不慢的语调，但是语气中似乎仍有稍许的焦虑。显然，面对如此强势反弹，如果完全踏空，来自客户的压力也是巨大的。
不过刘厉剑却笑称，由于与客户合作时间已经很长了，相互之间建立了彼此的信任，因此客户流失的并不多，关键还在于信任二字。
在去年的漫漫熊市中，刘厉剑的空仓策略成功地回避了风险，他也开始转型去做股权投资等一级市场。不过收效有多少，或者只有他自己清楚。
即使是踏空至现在，刘厉剑依然坚定地看空，甚至认为市场的下一轮低点可能至1600点，甚至更低。
“美国经济目前仍然没有企稳的迹象，只有到年终甚至是下半年才能看清市场的走势。”刘厉剑表示，也许只有到那个时候才是考虑建仓的时机。
空仓让刘厉剑看起来既轻松又焦虑，原先联系的时候一直都是显得忙忙碌碌的刘厉剑难得在近期开始睡起了午觉，不知道是春困的原因还是真的开始有所放松。对于他的规划，按照此前的说法，就是挣到了足够的钱之后出国读个MBA。目前是提前放松，还是等待时机，谁也不知道。
同2007年市场火爆时期比，刘厉剑表现得更加淡定，彼时的忙忙碌碌，每天见客户吃饭研究券商报告，以及出差调研，如今似乎都减少了许多。空仓带来的不仅仅是工作上的清闲，心里的压力是否存在？谁知道呢？
巴菲特的五分钟选股的简单条件
1982年股市走牛，股价上涨。巴菲特在整个1982年都没有能以合理的价格买到好的公司，对此股神说道：“1982年我们最大的成就是没有购买那些我们先前已投入许多的公司的股权。倘若我们真地买了，这些交易必定会耗尽我们所有的时间与精力，但却不一定会获得回报。若我们将去年的投资作成图表介绍本公司的发展，你将会发现有两页空白的跨页插图用来描述这些告吹的交易。我们唯有在可以以合理的价格买到吸引人的企业时才投资。这需要温和的股票市场作配合，1982年的市场不适合买入企业。”
热闹的牛市市场令巴菲特无股可买。为改变无股可买的被动局面，巴菲特花钱登广告求购公司。在广告中巴菲特公布了他要买入公司需符合的条件：
“我们对具有以下条件的公司有兴趣:
(1) 巨额交易(每年税后盈余至少有五百万美元)；
(2) 持续稳定获利(我们对有远景或具转机的公司没兴趣)；
(3) 高股东报酬率(并甚少举债)；
(4) 具备管理阶层(我们无法提供)；
(5) 简单的企业(若牵涉到太多高科技，我们弄不懂)；
(6) 合理的价格(在价格不确定前，我们不希望浪费自己与对方太多时间)。
我们承诺完全保密并尽快答复是否感兴趣，通常时间不超过五分钟。”
对于巴菲特来讲，只要满足以上条件，巴菲特马上就会买入，买入决策不会超过5分钟。这意味着，这6个条件是一组能绝对买到好公司的令人放心的条件。在满足这6个条件后，投资者已经没有什么好担心的问题，剩下的就是根据自己的财力决定买不买的问题。由此看出这6个条件在巴菲特的投资决策上有多么重要的地位。为什么巴菲特会把这6个条件做为他决策的关键依据呢？
1978年巴菲特在给股东的信中提出：
“只有当以下条件都符合时：
(1)我们可以了解的行业；
(2)具有长期竞争力；
(3)由才德兼备的人士所经营；
(4)吸引人的价格。
我们才会把资金投放进去。”
事隔四年巴菲特又提出了6个条件，二者有区别吗？
事实上，两组条件本质上完全相同，差别仅仅是1982年的6条件是对1978年的4条件的细化和具体化。因为，在1982年巴菲特的6条件发布在广告中，它的读者是普通大众，给大众看的客观上需要具体化，明确化，而1978年的4条件是面对自己的股东所说的。对象不同，一个具体，一个相对原则，本质完全一样。就操作性而言，1982年的6条件更具有可操作性。
在此，我们重点讨论一下股神1982年提出的值得投资的公司需符合的6个条件的本质，这6个条件组合起来实质上是告诉我们什么样的公司是好公司，巴菲特不仅一次地说：“以合理的价格买好公司就会必然挣钱”所以什么是好公司是非常关键的问题。不能判断什么是好公司，没有判断什么是好公司的条件和原则，那么投资就变成了没有地基的大厦。现在巴菲特在广告中所提出的这6个条件就是判断什么是好公司的条件和原则。
从这个意义上讲，这6个条件其实是价值投资大厦最重要的基石之一。
什么是好公司？这是我在2009年初所写的《熊市价值投资的春天》一书中第二章最重要的问题和内在的目的和意义。企业存在的唯一使命是挣钱和盈利，不挣钱的企业没有存在的价值，不挣钱的企业是“不道德”的企业。企业为挣钱而产生，为挣钱而存在。企业的好坏评价可以从产品质量、品牌知名度、管理水平来评价，但都不是根本的评价。根本的企业评价方法是看企业能不能在整个经营存续期挣钱，能挣多少钱，看企业在整个经营存续期只是暂时挣钱还是长期挣钱。在整个经营存续期挣钱的企业比不挣钱的企业好，挣钱多的企业比挣钱少的企业好，长期挣钱的企业比暂时挣钱的企业好。一句话，评价企业好坏和价值的唯一标准是在整个经营存续期内企业挣钱的多少。因此我们可以直截了当地说，企业的价值就是它在整个经营存续期的挣钱多少和支持它挣钱能力的大小。能挣钱的企业就有价值，不能挣钱的企业就没价值；挣钱多的企业价值大，挣钱少的企业价值小。”
巴菲特这6个条件实质上和我在《熊市-价值投资的春天》一书中所提出的什么是好公司，什么是有价值的公司的判断原则本质上完全相同。巴菲特直接了当地把盈利做为是否是一家好公司做为核心，所有的这6个条件都是围绕着盈利这一核心来说的，差别仅仅是每个条件从不同的侧面揭示了好公司的盈利应该有什么特点。巴菲特的第一个条件揭示的是好公司首先必须每年要盈利，同时盈利要有规模，不可以盈利太少，更不可以不盈利，好的公司一定是盈利的且是大规模盈利的公司。第二个条件强调的是盈利必须要有持续性和稳定性，不能够好一年歹一年，赚一年赔一年，好公司一定是稳定盈利的公司，一定是长期盈利的公司。第三个条件，强调的是盈利要有效率，所获取的盈利必须尽可能的少耗费资金和资源，耗费非常多的资金和资源所获得的盈利，虽然也是盈利但缺乏效率，也就是说好公司的盈利一定是投入产出比高的盈利，一定是净资产回报率高的盈利。在有效率的基础上，好公司的盈利还必须是安全的，所谓的安全是指不依赖大量的负债，不是放大投资人的风险，也不是干刀口舔血生意所获得的盈利。
具备前三个条件的公司在过去、在历史上是好公司。第四条是在前三条的基础上强调一个过去每年大规模、可持续、高效、安全盈利的企业，在一个有能力可信赖的管理层照顾下公司未来的盈利是有保证和确定性。第五条强调的是公司在客观的产业经济特征上具备简单的特点。从而在前四条的基础上公司发生复杂变化的可能性小。前五条如果同时满足的情况下，这家公司未来也必定是一家好公司。最后一条是巴菲特几十年不变的原则，价格要合适。当某一个公司六条都满足，那么它就是一个好的投资机会。也就是说，前五条解决了什么是好公司的问题，第六条确保了好公司变成好的投资机会。实际上好公司加上好价格就是好机会。
在巴菲特的这六个条件它们的核心是盈利，巴菲特把盈利做为好公司的根本判断原则，不盈利的公司、盈利小的公司、盈利波动性大的公司、盈利需要耗费过多的资金和资源的公司，盈利需要靠大量举债的公司都不是好公司。因为这种盈利不稳定，不安全，不能持续，没有效率。因此未来的确定性小。
巴菲特的前三个条件描述了优秀企业的盈利特征，某一个公司的盈利特征是完全从属于它的产业经济特征，经营特点和产品的技术特征，需求特性以及公司的管理水平和公司所处行业的竞争激烈程度，这些固有的长期不变的基础要素。一个公司的盈利特征是其最基本的基础经营要素决定的，因此公司的盈利特征不会轻易变化，过去的盈利特征也将是将来的盈利特征，除非基础经营经营要素发生变化，基础经营经营要素中最容易变化的是管理层。所以当我们知道某一个公司过去的盈利特征的时候，其实只要给这个公司配置一个有能力的可信赖的管理层再加上这个行业的经济特征本身又比较简单，变化性又小，那么现在的盈利特征也将是未来的盈利特征，企业的未来盈利特征以及企业的未来盈利情况，在这时完全可以通过了解企业过去的盈利特征和盈利情况来知晓。而企业过去的盈利特征和盈利情况都是完全公开的信息，通过历年的年报即使没有财务知识的普通投资人也可以很方便地知晓企业过去的盈利特征。
在这里，我们要指出一点在传统的价值投资领域有一种公司分析的方法，其基本思路是回看历史，把历史上企业的经营数据进行统计和分析，寻找出企业在历史上的增长趋势，比如通过对企业历史上净利率增长率的统计，然后直接就认为未来几年企业还将延续这种趋势，未来的净利率增长率也必定和过去的净利率相一样，这种分析方法从根本上并不错，但是我们说如果企业过去净利率增长了30%，未来也必定无条件地增长30%，这也是有点绝对，未来和过去 不可能完全一样，如果未来和过去完全一样，那么这个世界就变成钟表了，未来和过去一样是有条件的，并不是绝对的，在一定条件下企业未来的发展趋势和企业的过去发展趋势是一样的。那么确保企业未来的发展趋势和企业的过去发展趋势一样的条件是什么？如果我们知道了这个条件，那么我们不就可以通过获取企业过去的经营数据掌握企业的盈利特征和盈利情况，这个盈利特征就是企业未来的盈利特征，也就是说在这种情况下我们可以透过回看公司的历史就能较准确地把握这个公司的未来。
这个条件就是你现在所看到的，由巴菲特给出的这6个条件中的前5个。在世界上任何一个国家中的任何企业，如果企业的盈利特征满足了巴菲特所提供的6个条件中的前3个，那么说明这个公司过去是一家非常好非常有价值的公司。如果这个过去盈利非常好的公司同时满足了第四和第五个条件，那么它的未来也一定是好公司，如果这家过去盈利好且有好的管理层管理，并且产业经济特征也比较简单的公司，当前还有个非常好的价格，那么它一定是个好的投资机会，这就是股神巴菲特所以能在五分钟内决定是否投资的根本原因，事实上不仅是巴菲特，就是你我完全理解吃透这6个条件，我们也可以在五分钟内找到好公司和好的投资机会。
最后巴菲特的这6个条件中实际还隐含着一个条件，巴菲特没有完全挑明，那就是企业的盈利必须要成长，如果一个企业有大规模的盈利也比较有持续性、效率和安全性，但不成长，比如一这有自来水公司是完全满足这个条件的，但是这个自来水公司如果在合理的价格上买到这个公司，长期回报率也不是特别高，因为自来水公司的盈利一般不会大幅增长，这种盈利不会大幅增长的公司并不是好的投资对象，所以在巴菲特所给出的6个条件中，要么我们说巴菲特隐含在其中，没有明示，要么我们说巴菲特可能当时没有意识到成长的意义和价值，不管怎么说企业的成长是一个不能忽略的关键要素。
在1982年之后的年报中，巴菲特年年提这6个条件，我们甚至于能够感到，巴菲特几十年一直在靠这6个条件创造着这财富神化，因为巴菲特在此后的年报中再也没有提供新的核心的选股思想，一些新的观点只不过是对这6个条件的完善和祥解，包括巴菲特后来所提出的护城河理论和特许经营权理论都是对这6个条件的详解。
热闹的牛市市场令巴菲特无股可买。为改变无股可买的被动局面，巴菲特花钱登广告求购公司。在广告中巴菲特公布了他要买入公司需符合的条件：
“我们对具有以下条件的公司有兴趣:
(1) 巨额交易(每年税后盈余至少有五百万美元)；
(2) 持续稳定获利(我们对有远景或具转机的公司没兴趣)；
(3) 高股东报酬率(并甚少举债)；
(4) 具备管理阶层(我们无法提供)；
(5) 简单的企业(若牵涉到太多高科技，我们弄不懂)；
(6) 合理的价格(在价格不确定前，我们不希望浪费自己与对方太多时间)。
我们承诺完全保密并尽快答复是否感兴趣，通常时间不超过五分钟。”
对于巴菲特来讲，只要满足以上条件，巴菲特马上就会买入，买入决策不会超过5分钟。这意味着，这6个条件是一组能绝对买到好公司的令人放心的条件。在满足这6个条件后，投资者已经没有什么好担心的问题，剩下的就是根据自己的财力决定买不买的问题。由此看出这6个条件在巴菲特的投资决策上有多么重要的地位。为什么巴菲特会把这6个条件做为他决策的关键依据呢？
1978年巴菲特在给股东的信中提出：
“只有当以下条件都符合时：
(1)我们可以了解的行业；
(2)具有长期竞争力；
(3)由才德兼备的人士所经营；
(4)吸引人的价格。
我们才会把资金投放进去。”
事隔四年巴菲特又提出了6个条件，二者有区别吗？
事实上，两组条件本质上完全相同，差别仅仅是1982年的6条件是对1978年的4条件的细化和具体化。因为，在1982年巴菲特的6条件发布在广告中，它的读者是普通大众，给大众看的客观上需要具体化，明确化，而1978年的4条件是面对自己的股东所说的。对象不同，一个具体，一个相对原则，本质完全一样。就操作性而言，1982年的6条件更具有可操作性。
在此，我们重点讨论一下股神1982年提出的值得投资的公司需符合的6个条件的本质，这6个条件组合起来实质上是告诉我们什么样的公司是好公司，巴菲特不仅一次地说：“以合理的价格买好公司就会必然挣钱”所以什么是好公司是非常关键的问题。不能判断什么是好公司，没有判断什么是好公司的条件和原则，那么投资就变成了没有地基的大厦。现在巴菲特在广告中所提出的这6个条件就是判断什么是好公司的条件和原则。
从这个意义上讲，这6个条件其实是价值投资大厦最重要的基石之一。
什么是好公司？这是我在2009年初所写的《熊市价值投资的春天》一书中第二章最重要的问题和内在的目的和意义。企业存在的唯一使命是挣钱和盈利，不挣钱的企业没有存在的价值，不挣钱的企业是“不道德”的企业。企业为挣钱而产生，为挣钱而存在。企业的好坏评价可以从产品质量、品牌知名度、管理水平来评价，但都不是根本的评价。根本的企业评价方法是看企业能不能在整个经营存续期挣钱，能挣多少钱，看企业在整个经营存续期只是暂时挣钱还是长期挣钱。在整个经营存续期挣钱的企业比不挣钱的企业好，挣钱多的企业比挣钱少的企业好，长期挣钱的企业比暂时挣钱的企业好。一句话，评价企业好坏和价值的唯一标准是在整个经营存续期内企业挣钱的多少。因此我们可以直截了当地说，企业的价值就是它在整个经营存续期的挣钱多少和支持它挣钱能力的大小。能挣钱的企业就有价值，不能挣钱的企业就没价值；挣钱多的企业价值大，挣钱少的企业价值小。”
巴菲特这6个条件实质上和我在《熊市-价值投资的春天》一书中所提出的什么是好公司，什么是有价值的公司的判断原则本质上完全相同。巴菲特直接了当地把盈利做为是否是一家好公司做为核心，所有的这6个条件都是围绕着盈利这一核心来说的，差别仅仅是每个条件从不同的侧面揭示了好公司的盈利应该有什么特点。巴菲特的第一个条件揭示的是好公司首先必须每年要盈利，同时盈利要有规模，不可以盈利太少，更不可以不盈利，好的公司一定是盈利的且是大规模盈利的公司。第二个条件强调的是盈利必须要有持续性和稳定性，不能够好一年歹一年，赚一年赔一年，好公司一定是稳定盈利的公司，一定是长期盈利的公司。第三个条件，强调的是盈利要有效率，所获取的盈利必须尽可能的少耗费资金和资源，耗费非常多的资金和资源所获得的盈利，虽然也是盈利但缺乏效率，也就是说好公司的盈利一定是投入产出比高的盈利，一定是净资产回报率高的盈利。在有效率的基础上，好公司的盈利还必须是安全的，所谓的安全是指不依赖大量的负债，不是放大投资人的风险，也不是干刀口舔血生意所获得的盈利。
具备前三个条件的公司在过去、在历史上是好公司。第四条是在前三条的基础上强调一个过去每年大规模、可持续、高效、安全盈利的企业，在一个有能力可信赖的管理层照顾下公司未来的盈利是有保证和确定性。第五条强调的是公司在客观的产业经济特征上具备简单的特点。从而在前四条的基础上公司发生复杂变化的可能性小。前五条如果同时满足的情况下，这家公司未来也必定是一家好公司。最后一条是巴菲特几十年不变的原则，价格要合适。当某一个公司六条都满足，那么它就是一个好的投资机会。也就是说，前五条解决了什么是好公司的问题，第六条确保了好公司变成好的投资机会。实际上好公司加上好价格就是好机会。
在巴菲特的这六个条件它们的核心是盈利，巴菲特把盈利做为好公司的根本判断原则，不盈利的公司、盈利小的公司、盈利波动性大的公司、盈利需要耗费过多的资金和资源的公司，盈利需要靠大量举债的公司都不是好公司。因为这种盈利不稳定，不安全，不能持续，没有效率。因此未来的确定性小。
巴菲特的前三个条件描述了优秀企业的盈利特征，某一个公司的盈利特征是完全从属于它的产业经济特征，经营特点和产品的技术特征，需求特性以及公司的管理水平和公司所处行业的竞争激烈程度，这些固有的长期不变的基础要素。一个公司的盈利特征是其最基本的基础经营要素决定的，因此公司的盈利特征不会轻易变化，过去的盈利特征也将是将来的盈利特征，除非基础经营经营要素发生变化，基础经营经营要素中最容易变化的是管理层。所以当我们知道某一个公司过去的盈利特征的时候，其实只要给这个公司配置一个有能力的可信赖的管理层再加上这个行业的经济特征本身又比较简单，变化性又小，那么现在的盈利特征也将是未来的盈利特征，企业的未来盈利特征以及企业的未来盈利情况，在这时完全可以通过了解企业过去的盈利特征和盈利情况来知晓。而企业过去的盈利特征和盈利情况都是完全公开的信息，通过历年的年报即使没有财务知识的普通投资人也可以很方便地知晓企业过去的盈利特征。
在这里，我们要指出一点在传统的价值投资领域有一种公司分析的方法，其基本思路是回看历史，把历史上企业的经营数据进行统计和分析，寻找出企业在历史上的增长趋势，比如通过对企业历史上净利率增长率的统计，然后直接就认为未来几年企业还将延续这种趋势，未来的净利率增长率也必定和过去的净利率相一样，这种分析方法从根本上并不错，但是我们说如果企业过去净利率增长了30%，未来也必定无条件地增长30%，这也是有点绝对，未来和过去 不可能完全一样，如果未来和过去完全一样，那么这个世界就变成钟表了，未来和过去一样是有条件的，并不是绝对的，在一定条件下企业未来的发展趋势和企业的过去发展趋势是一样的。那么确保企业未来的发展趋势和企业的过去发展趋势一样的条件是什么？如果我们知道了这个条件，那么我们不就可以通过获取企业过去的经营数据掌握企业的盈利特征和盈利情况，这个盈利特征就是企业未来的盈利特征，也就是说在这种情况下我们可以透过回看公司的历史就能较准确地把握这个公司的未来。
这个条件就是你现在所看到的，由巴菲特给出的这6个条件中的前5个。在世界上任何一个国家中的任何企业，如果企业的盈利特征满足了巴菲特所提供的6个条件中的前3个，那么说明这个公司过去是一家非常好非常有价值的公司。如果这个过去盈利非常好的公司同时满足了第四和第五个条件，那么它的未来也一定是好公司，如果这家过去盈利好且有好的管理层管理，并且产业经济特征也比较简单的公司，当前还有个非常好的价格，那么它一定是个好的投资机会，这就是股神巴菲特所以能在五分钟内决定是否投资的根本原因，事实上不仅是巴菲特，就是你我完全理解吃透这6个条件，我们也可以在五分钟内找到好公司和好的投资机会。
最后巴菲特的这6个条件中实际还隐含着一个条件，巴菲特没有完全挑明，那就是企业的盈利必须要成长，如果一个企业有大规模的盈利也比较有持续性、效率和安全性，但不成长，比如一这有自来水公司是完全满足这个条件的，但是这个自来水公司如果在合理的价格上买到这个公司，长期回报率也不是特别高，因为自来水公司的盈利一般不会大幅增长，这种盈利不会大幅增长的公司并不是好的投资对象，所以在巴菲特所给出的6个条件中，要么我们说巴菲特隐含在其中，没有明示，要么我们说巴菲特可能当时没有意识到成长的意义和价值，不管怎么说企业的成长是一个不能忽略的关键要素。
在1982年之后的年报中，巴菲特年年提这6个条件，我们甚至于能够感到，巴菲特几十年一直在靠这6个条件创造着这财富神化，因为巴菲特在此后的年报中再也没有提供新的核心的选股思想，一些新的观点只不过是对这6个条件的完善和祥解，包括巴菲特后来所提出的护城河理论和特许经营权理论都是对这6个条件的详解。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)