好的股票，在低价时以投资的目的买进，在价格缓慢变动时继续持有，将来很有可能由于股息价格上升，而带来高额利润。-------保罗。盖蒂
1，投资家不同与投机家，他们谨慎的买进，并对此始终保持信心。
2，投资家不赌博。
3，不抱“速成致富”的希望。
4，从科学理智的基础出发。
5，买那些优秀的普通股票。
6，总趁低价或卖风正旺时买进。
7，具有冷静和耐心。
8，在足够高的时候抛出。
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
保罗·盖蒂：吝啬与慷慨
保罗·盖蒂的巨大财富主要得自于石油业,不过他在股市中的操作也大有可圈可点之处。令人称羡的是,盖蒂在证券投资方面似乎也有着采油上的不传之秘,总能在股市大调整时选准时机买入而大发一票。好在盖蒂颇为自负和自信,不吝把他的投资心得说出来,与大众分享。
与大多数成功的投资者一样,盖蒂鼓励长线投资。在选择买入什么股票时,他提醒要注意行业的生命周期,同时还得加强了解对象公司的本身。
盖蒂认为,投资者必须对公司三个方面的十个问题有明确的答案后才能作出投资决策。这三个方面是:
(1)公司的发展前景。包括公司的历史情况,公司产品在未来的市场需求,公司所处的行业竞争是否已经过于激烈；
(2)公司的财务状况。包括公司的费用支出是否过大,公司的财务报表能否经受住严格的审查,有没有令人满意的盈利记录,股利政策如何,以及公司的偿债能力.
(3)公司股票的市场表现由两方面的因素组成:股价在过去几年里是否出现过异常波动,公司的市值是否超过了它能够变现的净资产。只有对公司的这些情况有了深入的了解之后,投资者才可以放心持有它的股票,而不必去计较一时的价格涨跌。
盖蒂相信成功的投资者一生中只需抓住少数几次投资机会就足以致富。
1929年做了一次精彩的抄底之后,他就一直耐心等待新的入市机会。
1962年,股市又出现了一次大的调整,短短几天内从700多点跌到600点以下。当专家、学者、股评家们在报纸电台长篇累犊地进行事后诸葛式的分析时,盖蒂却在暗暗地买进。他的理由很简单,当时的美国经济运行健康,决大多数上市公司经营良好,股市的下跌只是对前一阶段过度上涨的修正,股指再拾升途是迟早的事。
结果盖蒂判断正确,此役中斩获了数亿美元。
有意思的是,尽管盖蒂拥有家财万贯,但他个人生活常有守财奴式的节俭癖好,不少小掌故至今为人传诵。例如,盖蒂在1959年买下伦敦附近的一座公寓楼,作为私人办公地兼住所。虽然每个房间都装有电话,但只有在他的办公室和卧室,电话可以打长途。然而当他查核电话帐单时还是惊讶地发现,电话费之高远远出乎他的意料,而且大多数的电话是员工们溜进盖蒂的卧室去私打的。盖蒂大怒之下果断行动。他撤掉了楼内所有的外线电话,并在一楼大厅里安装了一部投币电话。后来盖蒂更进一步把这套法宝广泛施用,盖蒂的许多豪门贵客在他皇宫般的府邸宴饮之后骇然发觉必须投币才能借用盖府的电话,因而颇有微词。盖蒂解释说,我邀请客人来吃饭,这并没有包括请他们来打免费电话。于是,盖蒂荣获了世界上最富有的吝啬鬼的称号。
尽管在生活方面十分节俭,但盖蒂对艺术方面的捐赠可从不吝惜。盖蒂认为一个人只有真正热爱艺术才能称得上是有教养的文明人。他对古典美术和雕塑颇下了一番工夫,并且著有好几部高水准的美术史和理论的专著。保罗·盖蒂于1976年去世,临终前慷慨捐助22亿美元给保罗·盖蒂博物馆,使之成为世界上最富有的美术馆。
确实,盖蒂在为后人留下不朽传奇的同时,也保存了不朽的文化遗产供你我去瞻仰。
与大多数成功的投资者一样,盖蒂鼓励长线投资。在选择买入什么股票时,他提醒要注意行业的生命周期,同时还得加强了解对象公司的本身。
盖蒂认为,投资者必须对公司三个方面的十个问题有明确的答案后才能作出投资决策。这三个方面是:
(1)公司的发展前景。包括公司的历史情况,公司产品在未来的市场需求,公司所处的行业竞争是否已经过于激烈；
(2)公司的财务状况。包括公司的费用支出是否过大,公司的财务报表能否经受住严格的审查,有没有令人满意的盈利记录,股利政策如何,以及公司的偿债能力.
(3)公司股票的市场表现由两方面的因素组成:股价在过去几年里是否出现过异常波动,公司的市值是否超过了它能够变现的净资产。只有对公司的这些情况有了深入的了解之后,投资者才可以放心持有它的股票,而不必去计较一时的价格涨跌。
盖蒂相信成功的投资者一生中只需抓住少数几次投资机会就足以致富。
1929年做了一次精彩的抄底之后,他就一直耐心等待新的入市机会。
1962年,股市又出现了一次大的调整,短短几天内从700多点跌到600点以下。当专家、学者、股评家们在报纸电台长篇累犊地进行事后诸葛式的分析时,盖蒂却在暗暗地买进。他的理由很简单,当时的美国经济运行健康,决大多数上市公司经营良好,股市的下跌只是对前一阶段过度上涨的修正,股指再拾升途是迟早的事。
结果盖蒂判断正确,此役中斩获了数亿美元。
有意思的是,尽管盖蒂拥有家财万贯,但他个人生活常有守财奴式的节俭癖好,不少小掌故至今为人传诵。例如,盖蒂在1959年买下伦敦附近的一座公寓楼,作为私人办公地兼住所。虽然每个房间都装有电话,但只有在他的办公室和卧室,电话可以打长途。然而当他查核电话帐单时还是惊讶地发现,电话费之高远远出乎他的意料,而且大多数的电话是员工们溜进盖蒂的卧室去私打的。盖蒂大怒之下果断行动。他撤掉了楼内所有的外线电话,并在一楼大厅里安装了一部投币电话。后来盖蒂更进一步把这套法宝广泛施用,盖蒂的许多豪门贵客在他皇宫般的府邸宴饮之后骇然发觉必须投币才能借用盖府的电话,因而颇有微词。盖蒂解释说,我邀请客人来吃饭,这并没有包括请他们来打免费电话。于是,盖蒂荣获了世界上最富有的吝啬鬼的称号。
尽管在生活方面十分节俭,但盖蒂对艺术方面的捐赠可从不吝惜。盖蒂认为一个人只有真正热爱艺术才能称得上是有教养的文明人。他对古典美术和雕塑颇下了一番工夫,并且著有好几部高水准的美术史和理论的专著。保罗·盖蒂于1976年去世,临终前慷慨捐助22亿美元给保罗·盖蒂博物馆,使之成为世界上最富有的美术馆。
确实,盖蒂在为后人留下不朽传奇的同时,也保存了不朽的文化遗产供你我去瞻仰。
Monday, March 2, 2009
買入長揸不合時宜
美國政府出招救金融業愈救愈跌，最新一招係上周宣佈把持有的花旗銀行優先股轉作普通股，此舉雖可減少花旗支付優先股的利息，但並無向花旗注入新資金，市場亦擔心這並非政府最後一次救花旗的行動。評級機構標普和穆迪亦在政府轉股後調低花旗評級，令花旗股份再急插至1.5美元。加上美國去年第4季經濟收縮情況比估計嚴重，杜指上周五跌至7062點收市，跌119點，跌幅1.8%。
滙控今天公佈業績，英國報章消息滿天飛，話滙控將削減派息，並可能宣佈供股集資120億英鎊(即1320億港元)。滙控曾經被香港人譽為股王，如今股價56.95元，在美國預託證券更見53.98元，已跌回 96年的價錢，即係過去12年買入滙控者，全部都要輸錢。
買得滙控絕大部份係投資者，而唔係投機者(買滙控輪者例外)，但一樣中重招，若在 07年10月時以150元高位買貨者，如今得番三分之一。滙控的下跌，絕對損害唔想炒炒吓的投資者的核心價值，他們信奉buy and hold(買入並長揸)的原則，認為咁樣比進進出出炒股好，愈跌愈買，愈買愈多，如今真係喊都無謂。
78億變幾千萬
如果你認為做咗滙控股東好慘，我可以安慰吓你，你一啲都唔算慘，呢個世界有好多人慘過你，呢個講法稍嫌阿Q，但也是事實，上面講的花旗是一個例子，AIG(美國國際集團)也是另一個例子，如果你係AIG的股東，你就慘過揸滙控100倍。AIG這隻美國保險股王，在2000年12月的高位是98.56美元，過去1年高位也有52.25美元，如今只有42美仙，如果一年前你話AIG會跌到42美仙，美國人一定當你發神經，有誰料到一年後會變成這樣，如果從8年前的高位揸到?家，只得番200分之1！
你可能會話，無人會見AIG跌咁多都唔走啩，我可以話俾大家聽，現實上大有人在，而且仲係最熟悉AIG的內幕人士(insider)，聽聞有個AIG亞洲區高層，擁有的股票加購股權，在高峰時值10億美元(78億港元)，如今跌到只值3幾千萬港元！
身家縮水之多，只能以「恐怖」兩個字來形容，你可能覺得3幾千萬已經好多，但試想你身家由78億跌到3幾千萬，都真係幾惡頂。這個故事第一個教訓，就係唔好聽咁多內幕人士的消息，因為內幕人士對自己家公司有偏愛，可能睇唔到公司的問題，君不見香港的交易所高層，正正是在股市唔係跌咗好多時，行使了購股權認股，但又無沽貨，結果隻股跌到四腳朝天，如果再跌多啲，隨時佢行使購付的稅款高過股份的市價。
講番AIG，你可能唔係好熟悉AIG的死因，我不妨講多兩句，AIG現價市值69億美元，只是高峰期的零頭，這家環球保險業巨企最直接的死因，是沽出大量的信貸違約調期(CDS)，信貸違約調期即係迷你債券背後的「資產」，性質是一種保險，債券投資者買了公司的債券，怕公司倒閉時一無所有，就走去買這些信貸違約調期，付出一年幾厘的保險金，以換取一個權利，在其持有債券的公司信用出問題時，就把這些債券「調」給信貸違約調期的交易對手，所以這些CDS其實等如企業的違約保險。
沽CDS殺AIG
一手把AIG搞大的AIG前行政總裁甘伯(Maurice Greenberg)，就係令AIG大量承擔信貸違約調期合約的始作俑者，佢發現沽出信貸違約調期合約非常好賺，所以大做特做，這也是AIG近年盈利急升執行業牛耳的一大原因。理由諗落好簡單，AIG賣人壽保險收保險金，每年都有大量投保人過世要賠償，但佢賣信貸違約調期這種企業保險，在金融海嘯到來之前，風平浪靜，鮮有大企業倒閉(之前幾年都只係一間安龍公司執咗)，所以沽出信貸違約調期合約，都係白收保險金，賣得多賺得多，AIG自然係盡量做，賺到笑。信貸違約調期的市場全無監管，交易規則又鬆，到去年底已發展成一個54萬億美元(唔係寫錯，真係萬億)的超巨型市場，亦潛藏巨大風險。
據甘伯的一個老友話，AIG是合該有事，甘伯一手促成AIG大量投身信貸違約調期的市場，但他自己深明箇中風險，如果由他一直執掌公司，在07年次按問題開始浮現之時，他應該識得走避，或許可以帶領AIG避過這場巨浪，不過甘伯在他事業高峰時，被一個州檢察官看中作狙擊目標，指甘伯以違規手法進行交易，結果甘伯在訴訟聲中黯然下台，公司就由經驗較淺者上台掌控。後來次按危機深化，企業爆煲機會大增，去年9月雷曼倒閉，更令信貸違約調期的合約價格大升，做咗咁多信貸違約調期合約的AIG中重錘，股價急挫，皆因大量公司岌岌可危，全部有違約風險時，沽出這些CDS隨時要賠到傻，搞到AIG資不抵債，成為一家負資產公司。
這個故事的第二個教訓是金融機構的股價可以跌到咁殘，皆因它們的生意有重大槓桿，遇上逆境時，隨時變成深度負資產。
金融行業槓桿遊戲
好多朋友唔明大銀行、大保險公司為何如此化學，股價可以跌到無譜，關鍵就係它們生意的槓桿。以保險公司為例，佢不斷收來客戶保險金，就利用保金進行投資，甚至加大借貸進行槓桿投資，爭取最大回報，保險金等如一個源源不絕的資金來源，要支付賠償的時間會滯後好多，所以在投資暢旺、搵錢容易的日子，水源充足的保險公司好易賺到笑。但在經濟逆轉時，保險公司本已難捱，若好像AIG那樣做了大量信貸違約調期合約，就等如壽險公司遇上地球大瘟疫，死人無數，賠到手軟，都唔係咁易捱。
銀行情況亦唔係好得好多，銀行亦係槓桿生意，佢一手收存款或在銀行同業市場借錢回來，另一手借錢出街俾客戶，所以銀行有1元淨資產，可以做10元生意，道理係咁，銀行有1000億美元資產，同時有900億美元負債，即係淨資產只有100億美元，即係有100億美元淨資產時去做 1000億美元生意，槓桿相當大。
有時銀行嫌借錢俾人賺1、2厘息差太少，就攞啲錢去投資，賺取更大回報，例如去買吓一啲叫CDO的東西，這些產品都有AAA評級，表面睇好似好穩陣，點鬼知這些產品和次按有關，一出事就大跌價，一跌跌3、4成。又例如銀行做樓按，借咗9成樓價俾業主，樓市跌落來，資產若跌3、4成，若要把資產貼現，家銀行豈不是馬上變負資產？
現金為王慎擇投資
上面講完金融業的高槓桿營運，這也是它們在好景時賺咁多錢的原因，但遇上這個百年一遇亦唔知幾時完的金融海嘯，它們的風險大增，而這種風險是真正的風險，不光是人家唱衰所致。
所以第三個教訓是簡單的買入長揸策略，已經不合時宜，現今全球化的社會，一切事情以10倍的速度發生，97年香港回歸港股升上17,000點，98年亞洲金融風暴跌番落5800點，2000年科網狂潮再上18,000點，翌年科網爆破又落到12,000點，到2007年又炒番到31,900點，如今跌到 13,000點，12年經歷3個起跌周期，你長揸股票升到高一高時唔走，結果跌番轉頭就一身蟻，如果揸着一隻AIG，更加可以變到差不多一無所有，你話揸咗啲四線神仙股跌咁多都心甘命抵，揸隻環球保險股王都變咁，就要明白現代社會企業用咁多金融槓桿搵食，無一隻股可以話十足穩陣。
買入股票，見升到癲時不妨沽吓，見到好股下跌，也不要不問環球股市下跌的情由，就盲目去愈跌愈買，在這場百年不遇的金融海嘯中，相信還有不少巨型公司要被淘汰出局，記住現金為王，慎擇投資，金融業乃高危行業，三思之後先至好落注。
滙控今天公佈業績，英國報章消息滿天飛，話滙控將削減派息，並可能宣佈供股集資120億英鎊(即1320億港元)。滙控曾經被香港人譽為股王，如今股價56.95元，在美國預託證券更見53.98元，已跌回 96年的價錢，即係過去12年買入滙控者，全部都要輸錢。
買得滙控絕大部份係投資者，而唔係投機者(買滙控輪者例外)，但一樣中重招，若在 07年10月時以150元高位買貨者，如今得番三分之一。滙控的下跌，絕對損害唔想炒炒吓的投資者的核心價值，他們信奉buy and hold(買入並長揸)的原則，認為咁樣比進進出出炒股好，愈跌愈買，愈買愈多，如今真係喊都無謂。
78億變幾千萬
如果你認為做咗滙控股東好慘，我可以安慰吓你，你一啲都唔算慘，呢個世界有好多人慘過你，呢個講法稍嫌阿Q，但也是事實，上面講的花旗是一個例子，AIG(美國國際集團)也是另一個例子，如果你係AIG的股東，你就慘過揸滙控100倍。AIG這隻美國保險股王，在2000年12月的高位是98.56美元，過去1年高位也有52.25美元，如今只有42美仙，如果一年前你話AIG會跌到42美仙，美國人一定當你發神經，有誰料到一年後會變成這樣，如果從8年前的高位揸到?家，只得番200分之1！
你可能會話，無人會見AIG跌咁多都唔走啩，我可以話俾大家聽，現實上大有人在，而且仲係最熟悉AIG的內幕人士(insider)，聽聞有個AIG亞洲區高層，擁有的股票加購股權，在高峰時值10億美元(78億港元)，如今跌到只值3幾千萬港元！
身家縮水之多，只能以「恐怖」兩個字來形容，你可能覺得3幾千萬已經好多，但試想你身家由78億跌到3幾千萬，都真係幾惡頂。這個故事第一個教訓，就係唔好聽咁多內幕人士的消息，因為內幕人士對自己家公司有偏愛，可能睇唔到公司的問題，君不見香港的交易所高層，正正是在股市唔係跌咗好多時，行使了購股權認股，但又無沽貨，結果隻股跌到四腳朝天，如果再跌多啲，隨時佢行使購付的稅款高過股份的市價。
講番AIG，你可能唔係好熟悉AIG的死因，我不妨講多兩句，AIG現價市值69億美元，只是高峰期的零頭，這家環球保險業巨企最直接的死因，是沽出大量的信貸違約調期(CDS)，信貸違約調期即係迷你債券背後的「資產」，性質是一種保險，債券投資者買了公司的債券，怕公司倒閉時一無所有，就走去買這些信貸違約調期，付出一年幾厘的保險金，以換取一個權利，在其持有債券的公司信用出問題時，就把這些債券「調」給信貸違約調期的交易對手，所以這些CDS其實等如企業的違約保險。
沽CDS殺AIG
一手把AIG搞大的AIG前行政總裁甘伯(Maurice Greenberg)，就係令AIG大量承擔信貸違約調期合約的始作俑者，佢發現沽出信貸違約調期合約非常好賺，所以大做特做，這也是AIG近年盈利急升執行業牛耳的一大原因。理由諗落好簡單，AIG賣人壽保險收保險金，每年都有大量投保人過世要賠償，但佢賣信貸違約調期這種企業保險，在金融海嘯到來之前，風平浪靜，鮮有大企業倒閉(之前幾年都只係一間安龍公司執咗)，所以沽出信貸違約調期合約，都係白收保險金，賣得多賺得多，AIG自然係盡量做，賺到笑。信貸違約調期的市場全無監管，交易規則又鬆，到去年底已發展成一個54萬億美元(唔係寫錯，真係萬億)的超巨型市場，亦潛藏巨大風險。
據甘伯的一個老友話，AIG是合該有事，甘伯一手促成AIG大量投身信貸違約調期的市場，但他自己深明箇中風險，如果由他一直執掌公司，在07年次按問題開始浮現之時，他應該識得走避，或許可以帶領AIG避過這場巨浪，不過甘伯在他事業高峰時，被一個州檢察官看中作狙擊目標，指甘伯以違規手法進行交易，結果甘伯在訴訟聲中黯然下台，公司就由經驗較淺者上台掌控。後來次按危機深化，企業爆煲機會大增，去年9月雷曼倒閉，更令信貸違約調期的合約價格大升，做咗咁多信貸違約調期合約的AIG中重錘，股價急挫，皆因大量公司岌岌可危，全部有違約風險時，沽出這些CDS隨時要賠到傻，搞到AIG資不抵債，成為一家負資產公司。
這個故事的第二個教訓是金融機構的股價可以跌到咁殘，皆因它們的生意有重大槓桿，遇上逆境時，隨時變成深度負資產。
金融行業槓桿遊戲
好多朋友唔明大銀行、大保險公司為何如此化學，股價可以跌到無譜，關鍵就係它們生意的槓桿。以保險公司為例，佢不斷收來客戶保險金，就利用保金進行投資，甚至加大借貸進行槓桿投資，爭取最大回報，保險金等如一個源源不絕的資金來源，要支付賠償的時間會滯後好多，所以在投資暢旺、搵錢容易的日子，水源充足的保險公司好易賺到笑。但在經濟逆轉時，保險公司本已難捱，若好像AIG那樣做了大量信貸違約調期合約，就等如壽險公司遇上地球大瘟疫，死人無數，賠到手軟，都唔係咁易捱。
銀行情況亦唔係好得好多，銀行亦係槓桿生意，佢一手收存款或在銀行同業市場借錢回來，另一手借錢出街俾客戶，所以銀行有1元淨資產，可以做10元生意，道理係咁，銀行有1000億美元資產，同時有900億美元負債，即係淨資產只有100億美元，即係有100億美元淨資產時去做 1000億美元生意，槓桿相當大。
有時銀行嫌借錢俾人賺1、2厘息差太少，就攞啲錢去投資，賺取更大回報，例如去買吓一啲叫CDO的東西，這些產品都有AAA評級，表面睇好似好穩陣，點鬼知這些產品和次按有關，一出事就大跌價，一跌跌3、4成。又例如銀行做樓按，借咗9成樓價俾業主，樓市跌落來，資產若跌3、4成，若要把資產貼現，家銀行豈不是馬上變負資產？
現金為王慎擇投資
上面講完金融業的高槓桿營運，這也是它們在好景時賺咁多錢的原因，但遇上這個百年一遇亦唔知幾時完的金融海嘯，它們的風險大增，而這種風險是真正的風險，不光是人家唱衰所致。
所以第三個教訓是簡單的買入長揸策略，已經不合時宜，現今全球化的社會，一切事情以10倍的速度發生，97年香港回歸港股升上17,000點，98年亞洲金融風暴跌番落5800點，2000年科網狂潮再上18,000點，翌年科網爆破又落到12,000點，到2007年又炒番到31,900點，如今跌到 13,000點，12年經歷3個起跌周期，你長揸股票升到高一高時唔走，結果跌番轉頭就一身蟻，如果揸着一隻AIG，更加可以變到差不多一無所有，你話揸咗啲四線神仙股跌咁多都心甘命抵，揸隻環球保險股王都變咁，就要明白現代社會企業用咁多金融槓桿搵食，無一隻股可以話十足穩陣。
買入股票，見升到癲時不妨沽吓，見到好股下跌，也不要不問環球股市下跌的情由，就盲目去愈跌愈買，在這場百年不遇的金融海嘯中，相信還有不少巨型公司要被淘汰出局，記住現金為王，慎擇投資，金融業乃高危行業，三思之後先至好落注。
Sunday, March 1, 2009
股神巴菲特「认蠢」错买油股 巴郡资产缩115亿美元
香港文汇报报道，「股神」巴菲特每年都会向投资旗舰巴郡的股东发出「致股东的信」，金融海啸之下，他今年特别承认自己去年投资时「曾做过些蠢事」，在油价高位时大手购入石油股，并透露巴郡去年净资产缩水115亿美元，但他对未来仍感乐观。
掌舵44年 去年最差
巴郡去年净收入大跌62%至49.9亿美元，即每股3,224美元。另外，巴郡每股账面值减少9.6%，是巴菲特掌舵44年以来表现最差一年，亦是继2001年每股账面值跌6.2%后，期内第2次净资产下跌。巴郡A股由前年底的每股14.2万美元跌至去年底的9.66万美元，踏入今年亦继续寻底，周五收市报7.86万美元。
在主席致股东报告中，巴菲特坦言于2008年「最少犯了一个大错和数个较小的错」，蠢事之最是在油价接近历史高位时买入大量康菲石油股份，而没预期油价会大跌。他说，是该投资失利令巴郡损失数十亿美元。
入股爱尔兰银行 劲蚀9成
巴菲特另在信中透露，花了2.44亿美元购入两间爱尔兰银行的股分，当时以为很便宜，怎料到年底市值跌至2,700万美元，帐面蚀近90%。他套用网球术语，称这是「无压力下犯的错」。
令巴郡损失最惨重的却是美国运通和可口可乐两只该公司长期持有的股份表现，前者的市值跌了50亿美元，后者则蒸发30亿美元。巴郡持有的大量富国银行股份，去年没太大损失，但今年才重创，巴郡去年底持有的3.04亿股富国股份，迄今市值已大跌逾半。
不过，金融海啸来袭后股市暴泻，为「股神」提供大量投资机会，他就趁机注资高盛和通用电气等公司。
他估计经济今年甚或以后仍会蹒跚而行，不过强调这无助预测股市升或跌。尽管如此，他对长远前景仍感乐观，认为「美国最好的日子在未来」。
掌舵44年 去年最差
巴郡去年净收入大跌62%至49.9亿美元，即每股3,224美元。另外，巴郡每股账面值减少9.6%，是巴菲特掌舵44年以来表现最差一年，亦是继2001年每股账面值跌6.2%后，期内第2次净资产下跌。巴郡A股由前年底的每股14.2万美元跌至去年底的9.66万美元，踏入今年亦继续寻底，周五收市报7.86万美元。
在主席致股东报告中，巴菲特坦言于2008年「最少犯了一个大错和数个较小的错」，蠢事之最是在油价接近历史高位时买入大量康菲石油股份，而没预期油价会大跌。他说，是该投资失利令巴郡损失数十亿美元。
入股爱尔兰银行 劲蚀9成
巴菲特另在信中透露，花了2.44亿美元购入两间爱尔兰银行的股分，当时以为很便宜，怎料到年底市值跌至2,700万美元，帐面蚀近90%。他套用网球术语，称这是「无压力下犯的错」。
令巴郡损失最惨重的却是美国运通和可口可乐两只该公司长期持有的股份表现，前者的市值跌了50亿美元，后者则蒸发30亿美元。巴郡持有的大量富国银行股份，去年没太大损失，但今年才重创，巴郡去年底持有的3.04亿股富国股份，迄今市值已大跌逾半。
不过，金融海啸来袭后股市暴泻，为「股神」提供大量投资机会，他就趁机注资高盛和通用电气等公司。
他估计经济今年甚或以后仍会蹒跚而行，不过强调这无助预测股市升或跌。尽管如此，他对长远前景仍感乐观，认为「美国最好的日子在未来」。
'Turnaround could take years'
NEW UBS chief executive Oswald Gruebel said it could take years to return the troubled Swiss bank to sustained profitability in an interview published Sunday.
Mr Gruebel also told the NZZ am Sonntag that it would take the banking industry 'a long time' to work 'like it used to.' Asked how long it would take to return UBS to lasting profits again, he said: 'If there were only factors that I could determine myself I would say two to three years. But there's the market, and that I can't control.'
Mr Gruebel underlined that there was a 'natural' limit of five years, by which time he will be 70.
The 65 year-old German, who led a turnaround at rival Credit Suisse earlier this decade, was appointed chief executive of UBS on Thursday after Marcel Rohner resigned following just 18 months in the job.
While Mr Gruebel underlined that he was still taking stock of the situation at Switzerland's biggest bank, he confirmed in the interview that more cost-cutting would be necessary.
'When we have overall costs of 30 billion Swiss francs, you should already assume that we have room to manage the whole bank somewhat more efficiently,' he said.
'I don't want to commit myself to a figure yet. But costs must go down further,' he added.
UBS lost billions in the United States subprime home loan crisis and the ensuing financial fallout and is also caught up in a costly legal dispute with the US over a tax evasion probe.
Mr Gruebel also told the NZZ am Sonntag that it would take the banking industry 'a long time' to work 'like it used to.' Asked how long it would take to return UBS to lasting profits again, he said: 'If there were only factors that I could determine myself I would say two to three years. But there's the market, and that I can't control.'
Mr Gruebel underlined that there was a 'natural' limit of five years, by which time he will be 70.
The 65 year-old German, who led a turnaround at rival Credit Suisse earlier this decade, was appointed chief executive of UBS on Thursday after Marcel Rohner resigned following just 18 months in the job.
While Mr Gruebel underlined that he was still taking stock of the situation at Switzerland's biggest bank, he confirmed in the interview that more cost-cutting would be necessary.
'When we have overall costs of 30 billion Swiss francs, you should already assume that we have room to manage the whole bank somewhat more efficiently,' he said.
'I don't want to commit myself to a figure yet. But costs must go down further,' he added.
UBS lost billions in the United States subprime home loan crisis and the ensuing financial fallout and is also caught up in a costly legal dispute with the US over a tax evasion probe.
谁会是另一个雷曼兄弟？
新一波的金融风暴正悄悄降临。美国股市下跌到12年低点，投资者的目光都锁定在花旗集团(Citigroup)、美国银行(Bank of America)等金融股，实际上这一轮把股市推低的罪魁祸首并非金融类股，而是更加多样化的股票——从大型机器制造商到日常用品制造商。
这场始于美国的房屋与金融机构的危机，正式蔓延开来，几乎没有哪个行业可幸免收益下滑、股价下挫的冲击，也没有一个国家可避开经济萎缩，全球正陷入历史性的严重衰退。1997年亚洲金融危机的幕后黑手索罗斯说：“目前还看不到任何见底的迹象。”
过去一个星期的坏消息不断。日本的中小企业放款业者SFCG上周宣布倒闭，负债36亿美元，债权银行包括不少国际大名。俄罗斯1月份的国内生产总值萎缩8.8％，俄罗斯媒体用“一夜回到1998年”来描述当地的经济困境，东欧经济敲响了警钟。
正当美国政府还在研究要如何为当地“有系统重要性的金融机构”缓解困境之际，美国国际集团(AIG)暴出第四财政季度将亏损600亿美元，并需要更多政府救助的消息。为了避免AIG破产，美国政府至今已为它提供了1500亿美元资金，如果再加注，势必影响美国政府对其行业或企业的救援能力，如果不加注，严重的后果不堪设想。
美国政府目前掌控了AIG近80％股权，并接管了这家公司，基本上已经把它国有化。
上周五，美国财政部同意将目前持有的部分花旗集团优先股转换为普通股，至多不超过250亿美元，持股比例将增加到36％，意味后者将被“部分”国有化。
将有问题的企业国有化，并非拯救美国经济的正确方法，反而像是自杀多一些。著名经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的追随者都不会同意美国政府的做法。
国际货币基金(IMF)前首席经济师、目前在麻省理工学院任教的西蒙·约翰逊(Simon Johnson)便认为，国有化不是治本之策，它只是将不可避免的结局推迟而已，接下来还会出现更多有问题的银行。
然而，支持政府接管银行的派系，包括美国联邦储备局前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)、诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗克鲁曼(Paul Krugman)等人在内，却认为既然这是非常时期，就必须用非常的手段解决问题，不能再让如雷曼兄弟一般大规模的银行倒闭。
将有问题的金融机构国有化，是美国、欧洲政府最近为了拯救金融体系不得已而下的重药，例如丹麦政府已经收归了三家银行，重量级银行如皇家苏格兰银行(RBS)也难逃厄运，英国政府已持有它70％股权。
市场不能接受另一个雷曼兄弟的出现。避免类似事件发生，唯一的途径是将濒临破产的银行或金融机构收归国有。国有化的弊端是小股东的利益受到巨大的伤害，好处是存户不必担心银行倒闭而造成存款损失，而且在理论上，国有化能让投资者感觉到政府不会让任何一家银行倒闭，有助于稳定金融体系。
已经为花旗集团提供了450亿美元救援的美国政府，可能三度对它施以援手的消息在上个星期初传出后，从股市的反应不难发现，市场对“国有化”的看法相当矛盾——昨天担心国有化会有不良后果而暴跌，今天却因为国有化消除了避险心态而扬升，可见市场也不是很清楚要的到底是什么。
崇尚自由经济的经济师认为，最快且成本最低的解决办法就是将受困的金融机构关闭，借机会把素质不良的都扫出局，最后留下来的便是那些最强稳的。这当然是理想的结局，只是过程会波及许多无辜，伤亡会很惨重。
这场金融大海啸发展到今天这个阶段，不论采取什么举措，结果都是两头不到岸，因为已经太迟了。过去6个月，美国政府已经向银行机构注入近2000亿美元，并为多家银行可能的损失提供了至少4200亿美元的担保，但是情况并没有好转，反而愈演愈烈。政府如果要插手，两年前次贷风暴一开始就得下狠药，如今的情况已经失控，要填的是一个无底洞。
这场始于美国的房屋与金融机构的危机，正式蔓延开来，几乎没有哪个行业可幸免收益下滑、股价下挫的冲击，也没有一个国家可避开经济萎缩，全球正陷入历史性的严重衰退。1997年亚洲金融危机的幕后黑手索罗斯说：“目前还看不到任何见底的迹象。”
过去一个星期的坏消息不断。日本的中小企业放款业者SFCG上周宣布倒闭，负债36亿美元，债权银行包括不少国际大名。俄罗斯1月份的国内生产总值萎缩8.8％，俄罗斯媒体用“一夜回到1998年”来描述当地的经济困境，东欧经济敲响了警钟。
正当美国政府还在研究要如何为当地“有系统重要性的金融机构”缓解困境之际，美国国际集团(AIG)暴出第四财政季度将亏损600亿美元，并需要更多政府救助的消息。为了避免AIG破产，美国政府至今已为它提供了1500亿美元资金，如果再加注，势必影响美国政府对其行业或企业的救援能力，如果不加注，严重的后果不堪设想。
美国政府目前掌控了AIG近80％股权，并接管了这家公司，基本上已经把它国有化。
上周五，美国财政部同意将目前持有的部分花旗集团优先股转换为普通股，至多不超过250亿美元，持股比例将增加到36％，意味后者将被“部分”国有化。
将有问题的企业国有化，并非拯救美国经济的正确方法，反而像是自杀多一些。著名经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的追随者都不会同意美国政府的做法。
国际货币基金(IMF)前首席经济师、目前在麻省理工学院任教的西蒙·约翰逊(Simon Johnson)便认为，国有化不是治本之策，它只是将不可避免的结局推迟而已，接下来还会出现更多有问题的银行。
然而，支持政府接管银行的派系，包括美国联邦储备局前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)、诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗克鲁曼(Paul Krugman)等人在内，却认为既然这是非常时期，就必须用非常的手段解决问题，不能再让如雷曼兄弟一般大规模的银行倒闭。
将有问题的金融机构国有化，是美国、欧洲政府最近为了拯救金融体系不得已而下的重药，例如丹麦政府已经收归了三家银行，重量级银行如皇家苏格兰银行(RBS)也难逃厄运，英国政府已持有它70％股权。
市场不能接受另一个雷曼兄弟的出现。避免类似事件发生，唯一的途径是将濒临破产的银行或金融机构收归国有。国有化的弊端是小股东的利益受到巨大的伤害，好处是存户不必担心银行倒闭而造成存款损失，而且在理论上，国有化能让投资者感觉到政府不会让任何一家银行倒闭，有助于稳定金融体系。
已经为花旗集团提供了450亿美元救援的美国政府，可能三度对它施以援手的消息在上个星期初传出后，从股市的反应不难发现，市场对“国有化”的看法相当矛盾——昨天担心国有化会有不良后果而暴跌，今天却因为国有化消除了避险心态而扬升，可见市场也不是很清楚要的到底是什么。
崇尚自由经济的经济师认为，最快且成本最低的解决办法就是将受困的金融机构关闭，借机会把素质不良的都扫出局，最后留下来的便是那些最强稳的。这当然是理想的结局，只是过程会波及许多无辜，伤亡会很惨重。
这场金融大海啸发展到今天这个阶段，不论采取什么举措，结果都是两头不到岸，因为已经太迟了。过去6个月，美国政府已经向银行机构注入近2000亿美元，并为多家银行可能的损失提供了至少4200亿美元的担保，但是情况并没有好转，反而愈演愈烈。政府如果要插手，两年前次贷风暴一开始就得下狠药，如今的情况已经失控，要填的是一个无底洞。
It’s not the time to buy
End 09, early next year could be better, says CDL chief
CITY Development Limited (CDL) believes it is too early for it to start snapping up property in the downturn.
“The buyer-seller price gap is too wide still, so it’s not time to buy. The end of the year, early next year could be better,” said City Developments Limited’s (CDL) executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng at the group’s annual results briefing yesterday. Asset prices, he said, have not fallen to levels that are attractive enough.
CDL yesterday announced an after-tax profit of $580.9 million, almost a 20-per-cent dip from a year earlier. Even so, that was the group’s second-highest earnings since inception.
It attributed the fall partly to a 5.2-per-cent decline in revenue and lower contribution from its hotel operations under London-listed Millennium and Copthorne Hotels (M&C). This was mostly due to currency conversion, given the Singapore dollar’s recent strength against the British pound.
“Not unexpectedly, 2008 was a challenging year for the Singapore property market with downward pressure on both transaction volumes and sale prices after blistering performance in the previous two years, weighed down by global financial woes,” the company said.
“The group is aware of the many challenges that lie ahead.”
CDL said its balance sheet remained healthy, and it was not planning any rights issue to raise capital. It expects to stay profitable this year.
In the coming year, CDL said it would “exercise prudence” on expenses. It would “keep staff as much as (it) can” in Singapore.
CDL’s net borrowings stood at $3.4 billion, or 32 per cent of assets if fair value gains are taken into account, said chief financial officer Goh Ann Nee.
In the first half of this year, it will launch 60 units at the 724-unit Livia, 100 units at the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson, and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle @ Sentosa Cove.
The group has 142 unsold units from projects previously launched projects, with less than 10 per cent of those high-end.
CDL is holding back its South Beach project. It added that based on a recent valuation for the year ended Dec 31, there was no impairment required for the development.
Mr Kwek refuted rumours about consortium partners pulling out of the project.
The company is planning to issue the second tranche of Islamic Sukuk in the first quarter of this year. It is likely to be three or four times larger than the first one. In January, CDL issued $100 million worth of notes under its $1-billion Islamic note programme.
CITY Development Limited (CDL) believes it is too early for it to start snapping up property in the downturn.
“The buyer-seller price gap is too wide still, so it’s not time to buy. The end of the year, early next year could be better,” said City Developments Limited’s (CDL) executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng at the group’s annual results briefing yesterday. Asset prices, he said, have not fallen to levels that are attractive enough.
CDL yesterday announced an after-tax profit of $580.9 million, almost a 20-per-cent dip from a year earlier. Even so, that was the group’s second-highest earnings since inception.
It attributed the fall partly to a 5.2-per-cent decline in revenue and lower contribution from its hotel operations under London-listed Millennium and Copthorne Hotels (M&C). This was mostly due to currency conversion, given the Singapore dollar’s recent strength against the British pound.
“Not unexpectedly, 2008 was a challenging year for the Singapore property market with downward pressure on both transaction volumes and sale prices after blistering performance in the previous two years, weighed down by global financial woes,” the company said.
“The group is aware of the many challenges that lie ahead.”
CDL said its balance sheet remained healthy, and it was not planning any rights issue to raise capital. It expects to stay profitable this year.
In the coming year, CDL said it would “exercise prudence” on expenses. It would “keep staff as much as (it) can” in Singapore.
CDL’s net borrowings stood at $3.4 billion, or 32 per cent of assets if fair value gains are taken into account, said chief financial officer Goh Ann Nee.
In the first half of this year, it will launch 60 units at the 724-unit Livia, 100 units at the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson, and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle @ Sentosa Cove.
The group has 142 unsold units from projects previously launched projects, with less than 10 per cent of those high-end.
CDL is holding back its South Beach project. It added that based on a recent valuation for the year ended Dec 31, there was no impairment required for the development.
Mr Kwek refuted rumours about consortium partners pulling out of the project.
The company is planning to issue the second tranche of Islamic Sukuk in the first quarter of this year. It is likely to be three or four times larger than the first one. In January, CDL issued $100 million worth of notes under its $1-billion Islamic note programme.
Dividend-rich story is waning
IT MAY be a nag but a mother's reminder of 'safety first' to her kids is pretty good advice.
And in such uncertain times, people are turning maternal. They are looking for investments that they can nestle into and sleep soundly over.
Ordinarily, this would refer to dividend-rich stocks such as those in the banking, oil and gas, and the telecommunications sectors.
Which explains why several blue chips tend to find favour among analysts. Besides the assumption that shareholders are buying into an established and stable business, the stocks yield attractive dividends for shareholders.
This is despite (or a consequence of) them typically being more expensive in dollar terms compared with other stocks on the market.
But the dividend-rich story that some analysts still keep up is waning.
Oil and gas kingpin Keppel Corporation slashed its dividend payout ratio last month to 51 per cent from 99 per cent a year ago, despite posting a slight 3 per cent dip in full-year net profit to about $1.1 billion.
And while competitor Sembcorp Marine is prepared to push out a dividend of 11 cents per share for the full year, 26 per cent higher than the 8.73 cents paid in 2007, the company has noted that the dividend policy is not cast in stone. This signals that future dividends for the company could be shaved to explore mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities or as a precaution against the credit crunch, as banks turn coy on lending.
Over in the US, JPMorgan Chase became the latest bank to cut dividend payout. It lopped dividend payout by 87 per cent to five US cents per share from 38 US cents, saving US$5 billion in capital per year from the reduction, reported Bloomberg. This is despite the bank expecting a profit in the first quarter in 2009 that is aligned with analysts' estimates.
Banks at home - which are assumed to be stronger than their Western counterparts - have maintained their payouts so far. But OCBC has plans to introduce a scrip dividend scheme that allows shareholders to receive the latest dividend in the form of shares instead of cash, which is seen as a means to conserve capital.
Even the real estate investment trusts (Reits) sector, which rests on a stable income distribution as its selling point, is not as resilient as some analysts make them out to be.
Saizen Reit yanked distribution payout for its fiscal second quarter and has proposed a scrip-only dividend scheme, under which it would pay dividends in the form of Reit units instead of cash.
CDL Hospitality Trusts also said that it would distribute 90 per cent of its taxable income - the minimum amount of distribution - for the second-half 2008, compared with off-loading 100 per cent of its taxable income. This would save the company about $4 million.
Analysts say that the 'scrip-only' scheme and other dividend reinvestments schemes are being mulled by other Reits as well to hoard cash. This is especially as the situation of debt maturity appears 'more acute' here compared to other Reits in the region, said DBS Vickers Securities in a recent report, with about $3.2 billion or 24 per cent of the total sector indebtedness being due for refinancing this year.
The bottom line is that stocks that paid out generous dividends in past may not necessary do so now.
Measures to crimp dividend payouts are understandable. While there is little doubt that shareholders will lose out in the short term, it would be unwise for companies to pay out cash, or worse, to borrow (at much higher costs now) and risk future operations by weakening its cash position.
But this means that stocks that were once lauded as safe, resilient or defensive based simply on their dividend yields, may no longer be seen as such.
And in such uncertain times, people are turning maternal. They are looking for investments that they can nestle into and sleep soundly over.
Ordinarily, this would refer to dividend-rich stocks such as those in the banking, oil and gas, and the telecommunications sectors.
Which explains why several blue chips tend to find favour among analysts. Besides the assumption that shareholders are buying into an established and stable business, the stocks yield attractive dividends for shareholders.
This is despite (or a consequence of) them typically being more expensive in dollar terms compared with other stocks on the market.
But the dividend-rich story that some analysts still keep up is waning.
Oil and gas kingpin Keppel Corporation slashed its dividend payout ratio last month to 51 per cent from 99 per cent a year ago, despite posting a slight 3 per cent dip in full-year net profit to about $1.1 billion.
And while competitor Sembcorp Marine is prepared to push out a dividend of 11 cents per share for the full year, 26 per cent higher than the 8.73 cents paid in 2007, the company has noted that the dividend policy is not cast in stone. This signals that future dividends for the company could be shaved to explore mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities or as a precaution against the credit crunch, as banks turn coy on lending.
Over in the US, JPMorgan Chase became the latest bank to cut dividend payout. It lopped dividend payout by 87 per cent to five US cents per share from 38 US cents, saving US$5 billion in capital per year from the reduction, reported Bloomberg. This is despite the bank expecting a profit in the first quarter in 2009 that is aligned with analysts' estimates.
Banks at home - which are assumed to be stronger than their Western counterparts - have maintained their payouts so far. But OCBC has plans to introduce a scrip dividend scheme that allows shareholders to receive the latest dividend in the form of shares instead of cash, which is seen as a means to conserve capital.
Even the real estate investment trusts (Reits) sector, which rests on a stable income distribution as its selling point, is not as resilient as some analysts make them out to be.
Saizen Reit yanked distribution payout for its fiscal second quarter and has proposed a scrip-only dividend scheme, under which it would pay dividends in the form of Reit units instead of cash.
CDL Hospitality Trusts also said that it would distribute 90 per cent of its taxable income - the minimum amount of distribution - for the second-half 2008, compared with off-loading 100 per cent of its taxable income. This would save the company about $4 million.
Analysts say that the 'scrip-only' scheme and other dividend reinvestments schemes are being mulled by other Reits as well to hoard cash. This is especially as the situation of debt maturity appears 'more acute' here compared to other Reits in the region, said DBS Vickers Securities in a recent report, with about $3.2 billion or 24 per cent of the total sector indebtedness being due for refinancing this year.
The bottom line is that stocks that paid out generous dividends in past may not necessary do so now.
Measures to crimp dividend payouts are understandable. While there is little doubt that shareholders will lose out in the short term, it would be unwise for companies to pay out cash, or worse, to borrow (at much higher costs now) and risk future operations by weakening its cash position.
But this means that stocks that were once lauded as safe, resilient or defensive based simply on their dividend yields, may no longer be seen as such.
ARA Asset Management: An Eye on China (BUY; S$0.44; ARA SP; Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.60 (Prev S$ 0.63)
With earnings steady like a rock, we see little downside earnings risk for ARA Asset Management (ARA) due to its highly scalable fee-income based model. Our target price is adjusted slightly downwards to 60cts, based on 10x P/E FY10 trough earnings. Opportunistic new funds and M&A activities could provide earnings surprise in the near term. Maintain BUY.
Delivering with prudence.
FY08 was largely uneventful as the group consolidate its position and did not raise new funds which on hindsight could have diluted performance. Gross revenues were 13% higher at S$70m, mainly on the back of full year contribution of its fee income from ARA Asia Dragon fund. Net profit margins remained relatively stable at c. 52%, resulting in a NOPAT of S$36.5m (+8% y-o-y). The group also proposed a final dividend of 2.24 Scts per share, bringing total dividend per share to 3.8 Scts, translating to a yield of c. 10%.
Adjust fund raisings assumptions, mark-to-market Reits. We mark to market the various reits AUM valuations as at 31 Dec’08 and moderate fund raisings assumptions due to increasingly tight capital markets. Our forward estimates assumes: (i) further 10% decline in asset values in its listed reits as at Dec’09, (ii) adjust new funds raised over FY09 to US$350m (previously US$500m), contributing only in FY10. Our forward FY09-10 EPS forecasts are thus reduced by c. 12% respectively to 6.1 cts and 6.7 cts.
China Fund- the next catalyst?
Declining real estate prices in China & Japan, could present buying windows of opportuntities for ARA in the near term. In this aspect, we believe that ARA could launch a new China fund given (i) relative attractive value proposition compared to Japan, (ii) group has begun expanding its networks and presence there. The launch of a new fund, we view, is likely to serve as the re-rating catalyst for the stock in the near term.
Delivering with prudence.
FY08 was largely uneventful as the group consolidate its position and did not raise new funds which on hindsight could have diluted performance. Gross revenues were 13% higher at S$70m, mainly on the back of full year contribution of its fee income from ARA Asia Dragon fund. Net profit margins remained relatively stable at c. 52%, resulting in a NOPAT of S$36.5m (+8% y-o-y). The group also proposed a final dividend of 2.24 Scts per share, bringing total dividend per share to 3.8 Scts, translating to a yield of c. 10%.
Adjust fund raisings assumptions, mark-to-market Reits. We mark to market the various reits AUM valuations as at 31 Dec’08 and moderate fund raisings assumptions due to increasingly tight capital markets. Our forward estimates assumes: (i) further 10% decline in asset values in its listed reits as at Dec’09, (ii) adjust new funds raised over FY09 to US$350m (previously US$500m), contributing only in FY10. Our forward FY09-10 EPS forecasts are thus reduced by c. 12% respectively to 6.1 cts and 6.7 cts.
China Fund- the next catalyst?
Declining real estate prices in China & Japan, could present buying windows of opportuntities for ARA in the near term. In this aspect, we believe that ARA could launch a new China fund given (i) relative attractive value proposition compared to Japan, (ii) group has begun expanding its networks and presence there. The launch of a new fund, we view, is likely to serve as the re-rating catalyst for the stock in the near term.
纸面富贵幻灭会否重创消费？
谢国忠：只有将资金转移到更富生产性的人手中，经济才能复苏，当前危机的最终底部也许在2010年。
美国当地时间2月26日，美国总统奥巴马正式向国会提交其当政以来的首份预算案。未来数周，美国国会将会集中审议该法案，并付诸表决。
根据当日白宫管理与预算办公室发布的预算计划，2009财年，美国政府财政支出将达3.94万亿美元，获得财政收入2.19万亿美元，赤字为1.75万亿美元，占GDP的12.3％。相对于2008财年4548亿美元、占GDP3.2％的赤字规模，2009财年赤字骤增近3倍。
预算案显示，在支出方面，政府将执行《美国复兴与再投资法》授权的刺激经济的任务，并划拨6340亿美元资金改革医疗体系。此外，还将预留2500亿美元，以备金融市场“不时之需”。而在财政收入方面，则主要通过让布什政府的减税计划在2011年到期，并出售碳排放配额，来获得更多收入。
奥巴马的计划能救美国吗？
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为，危机造成的“负财富效应”是经济下滑最大的杀手锏。金融从业人员收入减少的乘数效应大约为2。只有经过长时间的结构改革，将资金转移到更富生产性的人手中，使失业人员再次在结构调整中找到适应需求的工作，经济才能复苏。
他说，有三个因素推动了全球经济的下滑：
第一，雷曼兄弟破产事件引发了信贷成本的大幅飙升。
第二，面对上升的信贷成本和下降的需求，全球企业大幅削减了对网络设备、计算机、仪器等一次性固定资产的支出，这对IT行业影响最为显著。
最后，也是最显著的因素，谢国忠认为，50万亿账面财富的蒸发引发的“负财富效应”将削弱消费。经验显示，“负财富效应”约为5%。由于全球经济的60%由消费拉动，推算下来，受这一效应拖累，全球经济将萎缩3%。这一因素的冲击尚未显现，因为大部分消费者的调整将较为缓慢。
谢国忠说，泡沫的破裂将摧毁金融活动带来的绝大部分收入，损失约等于GDP的10%。让我们设想一下，失业的银行家和他失业的司机可能面对的问题。危机前，银行家的薪水是司机的20倍，他可以轻轻松松地雇佣司机、花匠、裁缝、女佣、按摩师一干人等。现在，危机爆发了，银行家成为一所高中的教师，他目前的收入水平等于前司机的工资。需要考虑的问题是，曾经为前银行家雇佣的那15个人该怎么办？
最终结果是，经济萎缩额等同于银行家的收入与15名被雇佣人员的全部工资，谢国忠指出。此外，这15人还无力消费。乘数效应放大了银行家收入下降带来的影响，这一数值大约是2。伴随着财富的蒸发和失业人数的增加，全球经济会不断恶化。
他认为，财政刺激计划的错配（mismatch）意味着政府的激励政策并不能使经济恢复原状。政府的目标应该是避免失业人员可能由乘数效应导致更多损失。然而，政府并不会把钱花在司机、花匠、女佣或是按摩师身上。当失业人员在结构调整中重新找到新工作时，经济才会重新步入正轨。
全球经济终将好转，“如果资金能转移到更富生产性的人手中，将创造出更高的生产力，只是这样的转移会是一个长时间的过程”，谢国忠说。全球经历了20年的以资产为基础的经济形态，收入分配也变得极端。在过去的几年中，诸如GE、GM等大型制造型企业依靠金融活动获取利润，他们的工业生产活动实际上已经被当作融资的一个平台。在中国，制造型企业通过开发房地产或是进入股市投机获取利润，来自主营业务的利润率在萎缩。扭转这20年来的趋势需要很长的时间。如果政府不能正确理解当前的经济危机，并试图重现过去的“美好时光”，这将延长经济结构调整的时间，全球可能会面临一个“失去的十年”，步入“滞胀时代”。
针对目前的危机形势，谢国忠开出的处方是：
第一，当前最紧迫的任务是修复银行体系，尤其是美国的银行系统。正确的方法是将这些银行国有化，将不良资产剥离到另外一家公司实体中，并将优质资产重新打包上市。这是既往中国对银行体系采取的策略，可能也是美国政府的惟一出路。
第二，西方必须控制社会福利费用。首要的就是美国的医疗保险。
第三，新兴经济体必须降低对出口的依赖。出口依赖模式遇到的挑战是采用它的国家太多了。发展中国家必须更多地开展彼此间的贸易往来，挖掘国内需求。这要求它们不得不对本国的政治经济体系实施痛苦的改革，改革的核心在于产权制度和收入分配制度，二者必须相辅相成。过去十年来，南美洲和东南亚等发展中国家的经济停滞不前，根源就在于它们无力改变自身的政治经济模式。
谢国忠预言，当前危机的最终底部也许在2010年。
美国当地时间2月26日，美国总统奥巴马正式向国会提交其当政以来的首份预算案。未来数周，美国国会将会集中审议该法案，并付诸表决。
根据当日白宫管理与预算办公室发布的预算计划，2009财年，美国政府财政支出将达3.94万亿美元，获得财政收入2.19万亿美元，赤字为1.75万亿美元，占GDP的12.3％。相对于2008财年4548亿美元、占GDP3.2％的赤字规模，2009财年赤字骤增近3倍。
预算案显示，在支出方面，政府将执行《美国复兴与再投资法》授权的刺激经济的任务，并划拨6340亿美元资金改革医疗体系。此外，还将预留2500亿美元，以备金融市场“不时之需”。而在财政收入方面，则主要通过让布什政府的减税计划在2011年到期，并出售碳排放配额，来获得更多收入。
奥巴马的计划能救美国吗？
《财经》杂志特约经济学家谢国忠认为，危机造成的“负财富效应”是经济下滑最大的杀手锏。金融从业人员收入减少的乘数效应大约为2。只有经过长时间的结构改革，将资金转移到更富生产性的人手中，使失业人员再次在结构调整中找到适应需求的工作，经济才能复苏。
他说，有三个因素推动了全球经济的下滑：
第一，雷曼兄弟破产事件引发了信贷成本的大幅飙升。
第二，面对上升的信贷成本和下降的需求，全球企业大幅削减了对网络设备、计算机、仪器等一次性固定资产的支出，这对IT行业影响最为显著。
最后，也是最显著的因素，谢国忠认为，50万亿账面财富的蒸发引发的“负财富效应”将削弱消费。经验显示，“负财富效应”约为5%。由于全球经济的60%由消费拉动，推算下来，受这一效应拖累，全球经济将萎缩3%。这一因素的冲击尚未显现，因为大部分消费者的调整将较为缓慢。
谢国忠说，泡沫的破裂将摧毁金融活动带来的绝大部分收入，损失约等于GDP的10%。让我们设想一下，失业的银行家和他失业的司机可能面对的问题。危机前，银行家的薪水是司机的20倍，他可以轻轻松松地雇佣司机、花匠、裁缝、女佣、按摩师一干人等。现在，危机爆发了，银行家成为一所高中的教师，他目前的收入水平等于前司机的工资。需要考虑的问题是，曾经为前银行家雇佣的那15个人该怎么办？
最终结果是，经济萎缩额等同于银行家的收入与15名被雇佣人员的全部工资，谢国忠指出。此外，这15人还无力消费。乘数效应放大了银行家收入下降带来的影响，这一数值大约是2。伴随着财富的蒸发和失业人数的增加，全球经济会不断恶化。
他认为，财政刺激计划的错配（mismatch）意味着政府的激励政策并不能使经济恢复原状。政府的目标应该是避免失业人员可能由乘数效应导致更多损失。然而，政府并不会把钱花在司机、花匠、女佣或是按摩师身上。当失业人员在结构调整中重新找到新工作时，经济才会重新步入正轨。
全球经济终将好转，“如果资金能转移到更富生产性的人手中，将创造出更高的生产力，只是这样的转移会是一个长时间的过程”，谢国忠说。全球经历了20年的以资产为基础的经济形态，收入分配也变得极端。在过去的几年中，诸如GE、GM等大型制造型企业依靠金融活动获取利润，他们的工业生产活动实际上已经被当作融资的一个平台。在中国，制造型企业通过开发房地产或是进入股市投机获取利润，来自主营业务的利润率在萎缩。扭转这20年来的趋势需要很长的时间。如果政府不能正确理解当前的经济危机，并试图重现过去的“美好时光”，这将延长经济结构调整的时间，全球可能会面临一个“失去的十年”，步入“滞胀时代”。
针对目前的危机形势，谢国忠开出的处方是：
第一，当前最紧迫的任务是修复银行体系，尤其是美国的银行系统。正确的方法是将这些银行国有化，将不良资产剥离到另外一家公司实体中，并将优质资产重新打包上市。这是既往中国对银行体系采取的策略，可能也是美国政府的惟一出路。
第二，西方必须控制社会福利费用。首要的就是美国的医疗保险。
第三，新兴经济体必须降低对出口的依赖。出口依赖模式遇到的挑战是采用它的国家太多了。发展中国家必须更多地开展彼此间的贸易往来，挖掘国内需求。这要求它们不得不对本国的政治经济体系实施痛苦的改革，改革的核心在于产权制度和收入分配制度，二者必须相辅相成。过去十年来，南美洲和东南亚等发展中国家的经济停滞不前，根源就在于它们无力改变自身的政治经济模式。
谢国忠预言，当前危机的最终底部也许在2010年。
牛市和熊市有什么区别?
所谓“牛市”，也称多头市场，指市场行情普遍看涨，延续时间较长的大升市。所谓“熊市”，也称空头市场，指行情普遍看淡，延续时间相对较长的大跌市。
道·琼斯根据美国股市的经验数据，总结出牛市和熊市的不同市场特征，认为牛市和熊市可以各自分为三个不同期间。
牛市第一期。与熊市第三期的一部分重合，往往是在市场最悲观的情况下出现的。大部分投资者对市场心灰意冷，即使市场出现好消息也无动于衷，很多人开始不计成本地抛出所有的股票。有远见的投资者则通过对各类经济指标和形势的分析，预期市场情况即将发生变化，开始逐步选择优质股买人。市场成交逐渐出现微量回升，经过一段时间后，许多股票已从盲目抛售者手中流到理性投资者手中。市场在回升过程中偶有回落，但每一次回落的低点都比上一次高，于是吸引新的投资人入市，整个市场交投开始活跃。这时候，上市公司的经营状况和公司业绩开始好转，盈利增加引起投资者的注意，进一步刺激人们入市的兴趣。
牛市第二期。这时市况虽然明显好转，但熊市的惨跌使投资者心有余悸。市场出现一种非升非跌的僵持局面，但总的来说大市基调良好，股价力图上升。这段时间可维持数月甚至超过一年，主要视上次熊市造成的心理打击的严重程度而定。
牛市第三期。经过一段时间的徘徊后，股市成交量不断增加，越来越多的投资人进入市场。大市的每次回落不但不会使投资人退出市场，反而吸引更多的投资人加入。市场情绪高涨，充满乐观气氛。此外，公司利好的新闻也不断传出，例如盈利倍增、收购合并等。上市公司也趁机大举集资，或送红股或将股票拆细，以吸引中小投资者。在这一阶段的末期，市场投机气氛极浓，即使出现坏消息也会被作为投机热点炒作，变为利好消息。垃圾股、冷门股股价均大幅度上涨，而一些稳健的优质股则反而被漠视。同时，炒股热浪席卷社会各个角落，各行各业、男女老幼均加入了炒股大军。当这种情况达到某个极点时，市场就会出现转折。
熊市第一期。其初段就是牛市第三期的末段，往往出现在市场投资气氛最高涨的情况下，这时市场绝对乐观，投资者对后市变化完全没有戒心。市场上真真假假的各种利好消息到处都是，公司的业绩和盈利达到不正常的高峰。不少企业在这段时期内加速扩张，收购合并的消息频传。正当绝大多数投资者疯狂沉迷于股市升势时，少数明智的投资者和个别投资大户已开始将资金逐步撤离或处于观望。因此，市场的交投虽然十分炽热，但已有逐渐降温的迹象。这时如果股价再进一步攀升，成交量却不能同步跟上的话，大跌就可能出现。在这个时期，当股价下跌时，许多人仍然认为这种下跌只是上升过程中的回调。其实，这是股市大跌的开始。
熊市第二期。这一阶段，股票市场一有风吹草动，就会触发“恐慌性抛售”。一方面市场上热点太多，想要买进的人反因难以选择而退缩不前，处于观望。另一方面更多的人开始急于抛出，加剧股价急速下跌。在允许进行信用交易的市场上，从事买空交易的投机者遭受的打击更大，他们往往因偿还融入资金的压力而被迫抛售，于是股价越跌越急，一发不可收拾。经过一轮疯狂的抛售和股价急跌以后，投资者会觉得跌势有点过分，因为上市公司以及经济环境的现状尚未达到如此悲观的地步，于是市场会出现一次较大的回升和反弹。这一段中期性反弹可能维持几个星期或者几个月，回升或反弹的幅度一般为整个市场总跌幅的三分之一至二分之一。
熊市第二期。经过一段时间的中期性反弹以后，经济形势和上市公司的前景趋于恶化，公司业绩下降，财务困难。各种真假难辨的利空消息又接踵而至，对投资者信心造成进一步打击。这时整个股票市场弥漫着悲观气氛，股价继反弹后较大幅度下挫。
在熊市第三期中，股价持续下跌，但跌势没有加剧，由于那些质量较差的股票已经在第一、第二期跌得差不多了，再跌的可能性已经不大，而这时由于市场信心崩溃，下跌的股票集中在业绩一向良好的蓝筹股和优质股上。这一阶段正好与牛市第一阶段的初段吻合，有远见和理智的投资者会认为这是最佳的吸纳机会，这时购入低价优质股，待大市回升后可获得丰厚回报。
一般来说，熊市经历的时间要比牛市短，大约只占牛市的三分之一至二分之一。不过每个熊市的具体时间都不尽相同，因市场和经济环境的差异会有较大的区别。回顾1993年到1997年这段时间，我国上海、深圳证券交易所经历了股价的大幅涨跌变化，就是一次完整的由牛转熊，再由熊转牛的周期性过程。
道·琼斯根据美国股市的经验数据，总结出牛市和熊市的不同市场特征，认为牛市和熊市可以各自分为三个不同期间。
牛市第一期。与熊市第三期的一部分重合，往往是在市场最悲观的情况下出现的。大部分投资者对市场心灰意冷，即使市场出现好消息也无动于衷，很多人开始不计成本地抛出所有的股票。有远见的投资者则通过对各类经济指标和形势的分析，预期市场情况即将发生变化，开始逐步选择优质股买人。市场成交逐渐出现微量回升，经过一段时间后，许多股票已从盲目抛售者手中流到理性投资者手中。市场在回升过程中偶有回落，但每一次回落的低点都比上一次高，于是吸引新的投资人入市，整个市场交投开始活跃。这时候，上市公司的经营状况和公司业绩开始好转，盈利增加引起投资者的注意，进一步刺激人们入市的兴趣。
牛市第二期。这时市况虽然明显好转，但熊市的惨跌使投资者心有余悸。市场出现一种非升非跌的僵持局面，但总的来说大市基调良好，股价力图上升。这段时间可维持数月甚至超过一年，主要视上次熊市造成的心理打击的严重程度而定。
牛市第三期。经过一段时间的徘徊后，股市成交量不断增加，越来越多的投资人进入市场。大市的每次回落不但不会使投资人退出市场，反而吸引更多的投资人加入。市场情绪高涨，充满乐观气氛。此外，公司利好的新闻也不断传出，例如盈利倍增、收购合并等。上市公司也趁机大举集资，或送红股或将股票拆细，以吸引中小投资者。在这一阶段的末期，市场投机气氛极浓，即使出现坏消息也会被作为投机热点炒作，变为利好消息。垃圾股、冷门股股价均大幅度上涨，而一些稳健的优质股则反而被漠视。同时，炒股热浪席卷社会各个角落，各行各业、男女老幼均加入了炒股大军。当这种情况达到某个极点时，市场就会出现转折。
熊市第一期。其初段就是牛市第三期的末段，往往出现在市场投资气氛最高涨的情况下，这时市场绝对乐观，投资者对后市变化完全没有戒心。市场上真真假假的各种利好消息到处都是，公司的业绩和盈利达到不正常的高峰。不少企业在这段时期内加速扩张，收购合并的消息频传。正当绝大多数投资者疯狂沉迷于股市升势时，少数明智的投资者和个别投资大户已开始将资金逐步撤离或处于观望。因此，市场的交投虽然十分炽热，但已有逐渐降温的迹象。这时如果股价再进一步攀升，成交量却不能同步跟上的话，大跌就可能出现。在这个时期，当股价下跌时，许多人仍然认为这种下跌只是上升过程中的回调。其实，这是股市大跌的开始。
熊市第二期。这一阶段，股票市场一有风吹草动，就会触发“恐慌性抛售”。一方面市场上热点太多，想要买进的人反因难以选择而退缩不前，处于观望。另一方面更多的人开始急于抛出，加剧股价急速下跌。在允许进行信用交易的市场上，从事买空交易的投机者遭受的打击更大，他们往往因偿还融入资金的压力而被迫抛售，于是股价越跌越急，一发不可收拾。经过一轮疯狂的抛售和股价急跌以后，投资者会觉得跌势有点过分，因为上市公司以及经济环境的现状尚未达到如此悲观的地步，于是市场会出现一次较大的回升和反弹。这一段中期性反弹可能维持几个星期或者几个月，回升或反弹的幅度一般为整个市场总跌幅的三分之一至二分之一。
熊市第二期。经过一段时间的中期性反弹以后，经济形势和上市公司的前景趋于恶化，公司业绩下降，财务困难。各种真假难辨的利空消息又接踵而至，对投资者信心造成进一步打击。这时整个股票市场弥漫着悲观气氛，股价继反弹后较大幅度下挫。
在熊市第三期中，股价持续下跌，但跌势没有加剧，由于那些质量较差的股票已经在第一、第二期跌得差不多了，再跌的可能性已经不大，而这时由于市场信心崩溃，下跌的股票集中在业绩一向良好的蓝筹股和优质股上。这一阶段正好与牛市第一阶段的初段吻合，有远见和理智的投资者会认为这是最佳的吸纳机会，这时购入低价优质股，待大市回升后可获得丰厚回报。
一般来说，熊市经历的时间要比牛市短，大约只占牛市的三分之一至二分之一。不过每个熊市的具体时间都不尽相同，因市场和经济环境的差异会有较大的区别。回顾1993年到1997年这段时间，我国上海、深圳证券交易所经历了股价的大幅涨跌变化，就是一次完整的由牛转熊，再由熊转牛的周期性过程。
巴菲特判断股市长期走势的指标
巴菲特从不预测股市的短期波动，但是巴菲特却认为股市长期波动是可以预测的： “ 如果预期股市长期走势的话，我就觉得非常容易。格雷厄姆曾经告诉我们为什么会如此：尽管短期来说股市是一个投票机，但长期来说股市却是个称重机。 ”
巴菲特发现，股市的极端非理性行为是周期性爆发的。短期内，贪婪和恐惧在投票时扮演了重要的角色，会让价格过于偏离价值。但长期内股价总是会回归于价值。
想要在股票市场上取得更好的回报，就应该学会如何应对下一次股市非理性行为的爆发。巴菲特建议投资者进行定量分析，定量分析如同一针清醒剂，可以让你避免陷入大众的疯狂，而理性地把握过于高估时卖出和过于低估时买入的机会。
巴菲特认为，对于股市总体而言定量分析并不需要十分复杂。2001年他在美国《财富》杂志发表了一篇文章，提出一个非常简单的股市定量分析指标。
1.巴菲特用什么指标？
巴菲特的第一个定量分析指标是，上市公司股票总市值占国民生产总值（GNP）的比率。
GNP与GDP的关系是：GNP等于GDP加上本国投在国外的资本和劳务的收入再减去外国投在本国的资本和劳务的收入。我计算了一下，其实中国过去10年GDP与GNP差距很小，在-0.78%到1.63%之间，因此可以用GDP代替GNP进行计算。
巴菲特认为，上市公司股票总市值占GNP的比率，这个指标尽管非常简单，对于需要了解众多信息的投资人来说，这项指标提供的信息相对有限，但它仍然可能是任何时点上评估公司价值时的最佳单一指标。
巴菲特认为：如果投资人财富增加的速度比美国经济增长的速度更快，那么所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率形成的曲线必须不断上升、上升再上升。如果GNP年增长5%，而希望市值增长10%，那么这条曲线必须迅速上升到图表的顶端。而事实上这是根本不可能的。
其实巴菲特对这个指标的涵义的理解可以概括为一句话：长期而言，上市公司股票总市值的增长速度与国民经济增长速度基本一致。换句话说，股市长期是一台称重机，称出的是国民经济增长。
2.巴菲特的股市指标在美国有效吗？
巴菲特分析了过去80年来美国所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率，他发现的规律是： “ 如果所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率在70%～80%之间，则买入股票长期而言可能会让投资者有相当不错的报酬。 ”
这项指标在1999年达到前所未有的高峰。1999年全年以及2000年中的一段时间，这个比率接近200%，这是一个很强烈的警告信号。巴菲特说，在这个时候购买股票简直就是在玩火自焚。
2000年，美国股市开始持续下跌。2001年网络股泡沫破灭，道琼斯指数从高点大幅回挫2000点时，很多人都在讨论重返股市的时机。但当时股市总市值仍相当于美国GNP的133%，所以巴菲特并未轻举妄动。
从2000年3月24日最高的1552.87点，到 2002年10月10日最低跌到768.63点,32个月下跌超过50%。巴菲特成功避开了股市大跌。
3.巴菲特的股市分析指标在中国股市有效吗？
我计算了1992年到2008年中国所有上市公司总市值占GDP的比率，发现这个指标与上证指数几乎完全同步。
2000年底股票总市值与GDP的比率创9年新高，达到48.47%，上证指数年底收盘于2073点，也创9年新高。
2005年股票总市值与GDP的比率创9年新低，仅有17.7%，上证指数年底收盘于1161点，也创7年新低。 2007年底股票总市值与GDP的比率创16年最高，达到127%，上证指数年底收盘于5262点，也创16年以来最高。
如果你看了巴菲特2001年的文章，知道股票总市值与GDP的比率在70%～80%之间是合理的，那么2007年高达127%肯定是过于高估了。
如果你看到了，也做到了，在2007年底退出股市，那么你就能避免2008年一年下跌66%的悲剧。
4.巴菲特最近入市了吗？
2008年巴菲特控股的伯克希尔公司开始大量买入股票。
2008年10月17日，巴菲特在《纽约时报》公开发表文章宣布，如果美国股市继续下跌，将用私人账户买入美国公司股票。美国股票总市值占GNP比率在1999年最高峰时达到190%，经过2008年大跌之后，目前下降到75%左右，给了巴菲特一个充分的入市理由： “ 如果总市值与GNP的比率落在70%到80%之间，进场购买股票可能会很有利。 ”
巴菲特对于总市值占GNP比率重返正常一点也不感到讶异，他告诉《财富》杂志说，这种变化让他想起他的导师对股市波动规律的描述，他说： “ 股市短期像是一台投票机，但长期像是一台称重机。 ”
那么巴菲特赚钱了吗？
2008年10月17日巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表文章时标准普尔500指数收于940点，到 2009年2月23日却跌到743点。过了4个月，股市又下跌了21%。
相信很多美国人疑问为什么巴菲特开始买入美股，美国股市还继续下跌呢？巴菲特的指标预测的是长期股市走势，短期未必准确。他做的也是长期投资，并不追求短期业绩。
请注意巴菲特在文章中说，如果美国股市继续下跌，他将会大量买入股票。巴菲特说他喜欢股市大跌，这让他能以更加便宜的价格买入更多他看中的好公司股票。
2008年底上证指数收盘于1820点，股票总市值为121366亿元，GDP按照大部分经济学家增长9%的共识为280464亿元，那么中国股市股票总市值占GDP的比率下降到43%，大大低于巴菲特认为70%～80%的合理区间。
中国股市却从 2008年10月28日最低的1664点开始反弹， 2009年2月16日最高冲到2389点，最大涨幅超过43%。如果你根据巴菲特的这个指标，短短3个来月会赚上一大笔。可能股神也没想到，他的文章没有唤来美国股市的春天，却唤来中国股市的一波小阳春。
如果你对中国经济有信心，那么意味着你认为GDP还会继续增长，那么股市越跌，股票总市值占GDP的比率越下降，根据过去17年的历史经验，你长期投资赚钱的概率越大。
这里要说明的是，运用巴菲特的股市指标，长期投资成功的概率更大，但短期未必。短期内股市波动无法预测，没有人也没有什么指标可以预测得准。
巴菲特发现，股市的极端非理性行为是周期性爆发的。短期内，贪婪和恐惧在投票时扮演了重要的角色，会让价格过于偏离价值。但长期内股价总是会回归于价值。
想要在股票市场上取得更好的回报，就应该学会如何应对下一次股市非理性行为的爆发。巴菲特建议投资者进行定量分析，定量分析如同一针清醒剂，可以让你避免陷入大众的疯狂，而理性地把握过于高估时卖出和过于低估时买入的机会。
巴菲特认为，对于股市总体而言定量分析并不需要十分复杂。2001年他在美国《财富》杂志发表了一篇文章，提出一个非常简单的股市定量分析指标。
1.巴菲特用什么指标？
巴菲特的第一个定量分析指标是，上市公司股票总市值占国民生产总值（GNP）的比率。
GNP与GDP的关系是：GNP等于GDP加上本国投在国外的资本和劳务的收入再减去外国投在本国的资本和劳务的收入。我计算了一下，其实中国过去10年GDP与GNP差距很小，在-0.78%到1.63%之间，因此可以用GDP代替GNP进行计算。
巴菲特认为，上市公司股票总市值占GNP的比率，这个指标尽管非常简单，对于需要了解众多信息的投资人来说，这项指标提供的信息相对有限，但它仍然可能是任何时点上评估公司价值时的最佳单一指标。
巴菲特认为：如果投资人财富增加的速度比美国经济增长的速度更快，那么所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率形成的曲线必须不断上升、上升再上升。如果GNP年增长5%，而希望市值增长10%，那么这条曲线必须迅速上升到图表的顶端。而事实上这是根本不可能的。
其实巴菲特对这个指标的涵义的理解可以概括为一句话：长期而言，上市公司股票总市值的增长速度与国民经济增长速度基本一致。换句话说，股市长期是一台称重机，称出的是国民经济增长。
2.巴菲特的股市指标在美国有效吗？
巴菲特分析了过去80年来美国所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率，他发现的规律是： “ 如果所有上市公司总市值占GNP的比率在70%～80%之间，则买入股票长期而言可能会让投资者有相当不错的报酬。 ”
这项指标在1999年达到前所未有的高峰。1999年全年以及2000年中的一段时间，这个比率接近200%，这是一个很强烈的警告信号。巴菲特说，在这个时候购买股票简直就是在玩火自焚。
2000年，美国股市开始持续下跌。2001年网络股泡沫破灭，道琼斯指数从高点大幅回挫2000点时，很多人都在讨论重返股市的时机。但当时股市总市值仍相当于美国GNP的133%，所以巴菲特并未轻举妄动。
从2000年3月24日最高的1552.87点，到 2002年10月10日最低跌到768.63点,32个月下跌超过50%。巴菲特成功避开了股市大跌。
3.巴菲特的股市分析指标在中国股市有效吗？
我计算了1992年到2008年中国所有上市公司总市值占GDP的比率，发现这个指标与上证指数几乎完全同步。
2000年底股票总市值与GDP的比率创9年新高，达到48.47%，上证指数年底收盘于2073点，也创9年新高。
2005年股票总市值与GDP的比率创9年新低，仅有17.7%，上证指数年底收盘于1161点，也创7年新低。 2007年底股票总市值与GDP的比率创16年最高，达到127%，上证指数年底收盘于5262点，也创16年以来最高。
如果你看了巴菲特2001年的文章，知道股票总市值与GDP的比率在70%～80%之间是合理的，那么2007年高达127%肯定是过于高估了。
如果你看到了，也做到了，在2007年底退出股市，那么你就能避免2008年一年下跌66%的悲剧。
4.巴菲特最近入市了吗？
2008年巴菲特控股的伯克希尔公司开始大量买入股票。
2008年10月17日，巴菲特在《纽约时报》公开发表文章宣布，如果美国股市继续下跌，将用私人账户买入美国公司股票。美国股票总市值占GNP比率在1999年最高峰时达到190%，经过2008年大跌之后，目前下降到75%左右，给了巴菲特一个充分的入市理由： “ 如果总市值与GNP的比率落在70%到80%之间，进场购买股票可能会很有利。 ”
巴菲特对于总市值占GNP比率重返正常一点也不感到讶异，他告诉《财富》杂志说，这种变化让他想起他的导师对股市波动规律的描述，他说： “ 股市短期像是一台投票机，但长期像是一台称重机。 ”
那么巴菲特赚钱了吗？
2008年10月17日巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表文章时标准普尔500指数收于940点，到 2009年2月23日却跌到743点。过了4个月，股市又下跌了21%。
相信很多美国人疑问为什么巴菲特开始买入美股，美国股市还继续下跌呢？巴菲特的指标预测的是长期股市走势，短期未必准确。他做的也是长期投资，并不追求短期业绩。
请注意巴菲特在文章中说，如果美国股市继续下跌，他将会大量买入股票。巴菲特说他喜欢股市大跌，这让他能以更加便宜的价格买入更多他看中的好公司股票。
2008年底上证指数收盘于1820点，股票总市值为121366亿元，GDP按照大部分经济学家增长9%的共识为280464亿元，那么中国股市股票总市值占GDP的比率下降到43%，大大低于巴菲特认为70%～80%的合理区间。
中国股市却从 2008年10月28日最低的1664点开始反弹， 2009年2月16日最高冲到2389点，最大涨幅超过43%。如果你根据巴菲特的这个指标，短短3个来月会赚上一大笔。可能股神也没想到，他的文章没有唤来美国股市的春天，却唤来中国股市的一波小阳春。
如果你对中国经济有信心，那么意味着你认为GDP还会继续增长，那么股市越跌，股票总市值占GDP的比率越下降，根据过去17年的历史经验，你长期投资赚钱的概率越大。
这里要说明的是，运用巴菲特的股市指标，长期投资成功的概率更大，但短期未必。短期内股市波动无法预测，没有人也没有什么指标可以预测得准。
花旗国有化 美国经济丧失灵魂
花旗的前掌门人桑迪韦尔在不断并购其他公司成就花旗帝国的时候，恐怕做梦也没有想到，今天会落到关门或者国有化的两难选择。
花旗事实上已经被国有化，美国政府救助的450亿美元，而目前花旗市值只有100多亿美元，花旗技术破产。中央财经大学中国经济与管理学院教授卜若柏（Robert H. Blohm）指出，鉴于美国联邦政府此前曾同意吸收花旗银行资产负债表上价值数千亿美元的不良资产损失，花旗集团已属政府。
现在，美国政府要求权利，第一步是债转股，从转为没有投票权只有利益权的优先股，到目前的要求大部分转为普通股，成为花旗控股股东，这意味着美国政府直接成为花旗的持有者，参与花旗的管理，已有消息传出，美国政府在谈判中将迫使花旗集团剥离其部分业务，并对该集团管理层的综合薪资事宜拥有否决权。与以往遮遮掩掩的救助式国有化大相径庭。失去援手的花旗现在惟一能做的就是讨价还价，要求政府减少持股量，但花旗这个没落贵族已经丧失发言权。
岂止花旗，其他金融机构也面临国有化的处境，8000亿美元的坏帐拨备没有解决问题，金融机构继续面临负债困境。美国财政部长盖特纳本月10日发布的第二轮金融救援方案。根据该方案，政府将很快对资产超过千亿美元的主要银行展开全方位 “ 压力测试 ” ，确定银行的健康状况，如果银行无法通过测试，政府将有条件地提供 “ 额外支持 ” 。政府已经全方位地介入金融机构拯救运动中，其结果与全部国有化仅有一纸之隔。如果说20世纪初期的大衰退是由JP摩根的慷慨缓解了金融、资本市场的危机，那现在是露出虎牙、打算惩治尾大不掉的金融巨鳄的美国政府。
市场对此的反应是美国金融机构股价暴跌，显示信心尽失。这源于几方面原因。
首先，国有化的先驱英国虽然在拯救初期取得了辉煌的成果，但现在英国首相布朗正在见证自己的失败，欧洲已将国有化当作压箱底的救命招术，不到万不得已决不动用，英国在尽力避免苏格兰银行国有化；其次，银行国有化还有无法解决资产泡沫破灭之后银行负债率过高的问题，政府总不可能救了银行不救基金，问题是如果大型基金垮台，银行同样会受到拖累；第三，根深蒂固的，美国人不相信政府的市场效率，虽然他们痛恨华尔街的肥猫，却同样不愿意看到经济国有化，自由市场，是美国人的灵魂，现在，灵魂失去，徒有虚名。
当然，美国政府不会把持着金融机构不放，他们意在让金融机构度过难关，不过，谁也不知道有了这第一步之后，经济模式会转到何处。今天国有化了花旗，明天国有化美国银行，后天就可以国有化基金公司，按此逻辑，政府会拥有整个金融市场。
另一个致命的疑惑是，美国政府救助花旗的资金已经打了水漂，如果不想让纳税人付出太多，美国政府就必须让国有化的金融机构能够赢利，靠什么呢？靠政府的管理，还是赋予这些机构特殊的政策优惠？这种想法让华尔街不寒而栗。
因此，有重量级经济学家集体撰文，在《纽约时报》上发布极为精简的广告，指出美国走出大萧条不是罗斯福新政的功劳。既然经济周期是不可避免的，就让萧条成为经济的消毒剂，政府无需过度介入，只要做好自己的公共服务和监管即可。肥猫让人痛恨，华盛顿那些放纵肥猫的人就没有责任吗？
美国救市之争实质上是路线斗争，主张救市者相信政府能够熨平经济周期，用反周期的手段可以帮助市场主体度过难关，信赖政府吧，他们说。而另一派人士则对此深恶痛绝，他们相信没有经济周期就没有自由的经济，美国立国至今经历无数经济周期的考验，只要相信市场的力量就能够应对，虽然需要代价，但代价是必须的，没有任何一次经济结构的转变可以轻松过关。
美国政府站在十字路口。是暂时抽掉自由市场的灵魂让经济度过难关，还是捍卫自由市场让经济承受巨痛？最可怕的是抽掉了灵魂之后还得承受巨痛，相对来说，国有化实在是风险最大的选择。
24日，美联储主席伯南克在国会作证时也否认了外界有关政府将以审查银行资产负债表为名，将大型银行国有化的猜测，他表示没有任何理由在不必要的情况下将银行收归国有。伯南克对美国国会金融委员会表示， “ 这并不是国有化，因为政府不会拥有全部或大多数银行股份。 ”
周一美国股市创下12年来的新低，周二在伯南克保证受援助银行不会被国有化后，市场出现反弹。
伯南克说，政府将对最大的，最困难的机构采取如下三个救助步骤：
压力测试。尽管财政部还没有详细披露压力测试的内容，但伯南克说，监管者执行压力测试的目的不是为了评出谁合格谁被淘汰，而是政府将判断各家银行需要从政府获得多少资金，这样可以在这些银行重组时给它们一个缓冲。
改变资本结构。在很多情况下，财政部向银行注资之后获得优先股或可转换股权。这些股权没有投票权，政府很可能无法插手银行的具体管理事务。此外，优先股也比普通股安全。因此，在情况恶化时，政府持有的优先股可以获得更多保障。
最终，当受困银行足够强大，勿需援助时，他们会偿还政府的资金，并募集私人资本。伯南克说， “ 当私人资本重新回来时，就是游戏的结尾。我也确信这会发生。当然越快越好。 ” 最理想的情况是，政府可以从现在的投资中赚钱。
如果政府参与管理式的国有化，说明美国气数到头了。好在只是政府直接参与监管，因为以往的监管太弱。
另一个消息是，工行一年的利润就能购买花旗。
花旗事实上已经被国有化，美国政府救助的450亿美元，而目前花旗市值只有100多亿美元，花旗技术破产。中央财经大学中国经济与管理学院教授卜若柏（Robert H. Blohm）指出，鉴于美国联邦政府此前曾同意吸收花旗银行资产负债表上价值数千亿美元的不良资产损失，花旗集团已属政府。
现在，美国政府要求权利，第一步是债转股，从转为没有投票权只有利益权的优先股，到目前的要求大部分转为普通股，成为花旗控股股东，这意味着美国政府直接成为花旗的持有者，参与花旗的管理，已有消息传出，美国政府在谈判中将迫使花旗集团剥离其部分业务，并对该集团管理层的综合薪资事宜拥有否决权。与以往遮遮掩掩的救助式国有化大相径庭。失去援手的花旗现在惟一能做的就是讨价还价，要求政府减少持股量，但花旗这个没落贵族已经丧失发言权。
岂止花旗，其他金融机构也面临国有化的处境，8000亿美元的坏帐拨备没有解决问题，金融机构继续面临负债困境。美国财政部长盖特纳本月10日发布的第二轮金融救援方案。根据该方案，政府将很快对资产超过千亿美元的主要银行展开全方位 “ 压力测试 ” ，确定银行的健康状况，如果银行无法通过测试，政府将有条件地提供 “ 额外支持 ” 。政府已经全方位地介入金融机构拯救运动中，其结果与全部国有化仅有一纸之隔。如果说20世纪初期的大衰退是由JP摩根的慷慨缓解了金融、资本市场的危机，那现在是露出虎牙、打算惩治尾大不掉的金融巨鳄的美国政府。
市场对此的反应是美国金融机构股价暴跌，显示信心尽失。这源于几方面原因。
首先，国有化的先驱英国虽然在拯救初期取得了辉煌的成果，但现在英国首相布朗正在见证自己的失败，欧洲已将国有化当作压箱底的救命招术，不到万不得已决不动用，英国在尽力避免苏格兰银行国有化；其次，银行国有化还有无法解决资产泡沫破灭之后银行负债率过高的问题，政府总不可能救了银行不救基金，问题是如果大型基金垮台，银行同样会受到拖累；第三，根深蒂固的，美国人不相信政府的市场效率，虽然他们痛恨华尔街的肥猫，却同样不愿意看到经济国有化，自由市场，是美国人的灵魂，现在，灵魂失去，徒有虚名。
当然，美国政府不会把持着金融机构不放，他们意在让金融机构度过难关，不过，谁也不知道有了这第一步之后，经济模式会转到何处。今天国有化了花旗，明天国有化美国银行，后天就可以国有化基金公司，按此逻辑，政府会拥有整个金融市场。
另一个致命的疑惑是，美国政府救助花旗的资金已经打了水漂，如果不想让纳税人付出太多，美国政府就必须让国有化的金融机构能够赢利，靠什么呢？靠政府的管理，还是赋予这些机构特殊的政策优惠？这种想法让华尔街不寒而栗。
因此，有重量级经济学家集体撰文，在《纽约时报》上发布极为精简的广告，指出美国走出大萧条不是罗斯福新政的功劳。既然经济周期是不可避免的，就让萧条成为经济的消毒剂，政府无需过度介入，只要做好自己的公共服务和监管即可。肥猫让人痛恨，华盛顿那些放纵肥猫的人就没有责任吗？
美国救市之争实质上是路线斗争，主张救市者相信政府能够熨平经济周期，用反周期的手段可以帮助市场主体度过难关，信赖政府吧，他们说。而另一派人士则对此深恶痛绝，他们相信没有经济周期就没有自由的经济，美国立国至今经历无数经济周期的考验，只要相信市场的力量就能够应对，虽然需要代价，但代价是必须的，没有任何一次经济结构的转变可以轻松过关。
美国政府站在十字路口。是暂时抽掉自由市场的灵魂让经济度过难关，还是捍卫自由市场让经济承受巨痛？最可怕的是抽掉了灵魂之后还得承受巨痛，相对来说，国有化实在是风险最大的选择。
24日，美联储主席伯南克在国会作证时也否认了外界有关政府将以审查银行资产负债表为名，将大型银行国有化的猜测，他表示没有任何理由在不必要的情况下将银行收归国有。伯南克对美国国会金融委员会表示， “ 这并不是国有化，因为政府不会拥有全部或大多数银行股份。 ”
周一美国股市创下12年来的新低，周二在伯南克保证受援助银行不会被国有化后，市场出现反弹。
伯南克说，政府将对最大的，最困难的机构采取如下三个救助步骤：
压力测试。尽管财政部还没有详细披露压力测试的内容，但伯南克说，监管者执行压力测试的目的不是为了评出谁合格谁被淘汰，而是政府将判断各家银行需要从政府获得多少资金，这样可以在这些银行重组时给它们一个缓冲。
改变资本结构。在很多情况下，财政部向银行注资之后获得优先股或可转换股权。这些股权没有投票权，政府很可能无法插手银行的具体管理事务。此外，优先股也比普通股安全。因此，在情况恶化时，政府持有的优先股可以获得更多保障。
最终，当受困银行足够强大，勿需援助时，他们会偿还政府的资金，并募集私人资本。伯南克说， “ 当私人资本重新回来时，就是游戏的结尾。我也确信这会发生。当然越快越好。 ” 最理想的情况是，政府可以从现在的投资中赚钱。
如果政府参与管理式的国有化，说明美国气数到头了。好在只是政府直接参与监管，因为以往的监管太弱。
另一个消息是，工行一年的利润就能购买花旗。
货币的海量增发为什么还有可能是通缩
我们现在中国政府大规模的救市，世界各国政府也是大规模的救市，美国政府的好几千亿美元的救市也通过了，世界的货币发行量海量的增长，而对应的经济危机在加剧，各种生产在萎缩，大家很自然的就想到了通货膨胀就要来临了，但是通过本人的认真思考，这样的情况很可能，但是通缩也是很可能的。
这里大家就很难理解了，发行货币多了，当然是通货膨胀，怎么可能是通缩呢？这要从危机的本质和现代货币发行的机制来说起。我们以前的经济是一个紧缺经济，包括世界其他发达国家在几百年前也是一样的，大家所需要的东西不足，生产力低下，而现在的危机是一个过剩的经济，过剩的产能造成危机，如果大家有通货膨胀的预期而拼命买东西的话，过剩的产能就发挥全部作用了，你要买入多少，就会有多少的东西卖给你，他们富裕的产能正好释放了，除非你购买的东西是绝对必需有无法大量扩大产能的，这在历史上是粮食，但是现在由于油价的降低，变成酒精的粮食和变成柴油的植物油正大大地富裕着呢！你因为通货膨胀预期的抢购拿那么多的东西不是能够消费的，或者是把以后几年消费的东西都买了，以后的消费还要更加萎缩，这萎缩一定就是通缩的背景。
而我们增发的货币，还有另外更加深入隐蔽的问题，在西方世界的货币发行是要依靠债券抵押的，我们的货币发行虽然不要债券抵押，但是我们为了加入WTO，也制定了限制政府滥发货币的《人民银行法》，该法律明确规定不允许政府向央行透支，也不允许政府直接把债券发行给央行，这样即使是印了钞票不能进入流通领域，就和冥钞没有什么区别，而我们的银行存款只是虚拟的账本游戏，在发钞行的账本上，他发行的在外流通的货币和他的银行存款没有什么两样。这一点在07年发行特别国债的时候已经被指违法，不得已这个一万五千亿的国债，还是委托商业银行承销。因此我们政府的加大投资所需要的资金，必须以发行债券和银行贷款来完成。而商业贷款必须有自有资金的投入，这投入只能是来自财政，但是危机使得财政收入降低，政府加大投资开支还大大增加，结果一定是财政赤字剧增，额外的赤字就只有来自债券，这样的海量债券的结果就是发行的债券要强行的从市场收走资金，而政府投资的银行贷款也是与市场竞争资金，结果市场中本来需要的资金血液反而被政府的投资抽走，这里政府人为的选择是否比市场的选择好呢？如果政府不进行这样的投资，让市场自行选择的话，效率经常是比政府人为的要好。
所以我们的政府投资只有把社会在场外观望不投资的钱吸引过来，才能够真正的带动经济的发展，因为这些资金投资股票和实业在经济危机的情况下风险大不敢，存银行利率低，所以会买入国债，而政府这样通过债券把资金集中进行投资，市场就活跃了。但是政府这样的投资造成了通货膨胀的预期，债券的发行就必须加大收益率，这样反而会吸引社会其他本来要投资和消费的资金进入，社会的资金反而是被抽紧了，政府加大财政投入的资金投放，结果社会上获取的这些资金会再次通过购买国债又回到政府的手中，政府的投入不但没有带动社会投资，反而白白的支付了利息。这样的结果政府就只有不断地加大财政投入，不断地发行债券，同时又不断地把社会的资金通过债券收回，最后这样的恶性循环就是大家都拿着债券，债券越来越多，政府的收入都变成了债券利息，政策最终出现了灾难。
同时政府在危机中偿还国债的来源由于经济的萎靡，投资的建设不可能有足够的价值产出，偿债只能是增加税收，而未来政府为了偿还国债而可以预见的税收增加的预期也会加重大家投资的谨慎，中国的名义税率已经太高了。还有的情况是社会的资金即使不进入债券，也进行囤积居奇的储备而不是投资到生产，很快就会把社会的资金全部收走，造成社会的货币流通严重不足，通缩就开始了，等到大家都感觉到通缩了以后，囤积居奇的商品再度流入社会，造成供应过剩，再次加重了通缩。
这样的情况在历史上也是有前科的，我们在98年后政府就采取了同样的扩大内需的积极的财政政策，结果是造成我们多年的长期通缩，人民币从贬值预期变成了升值预期。好在当初世界在处于泡沫的上升时期，中国的通缩问题被世界所消化，但是也落下向全球输出通缩的指责。但是现在全世界都在危机中，我们的石油、有色金属、房屋等等均价格腰斩，而有货币特性的黄金却逆势上扬，这样的情况从具体数据上也明确看到了通缩的到来。
而我们现在的世界美国的救市，也要依靠发行债券获得资金，但是在美联储的利率基本是归为零的情况下，政府救市赚取的钱也是依靠的债券，这些债券一定要吸收社会的资金，以前美国的国债是其他国家金融外汇储备的投资对象，吸取的资金不是美国内部的资金而是全球的资金，但是现在美国救市要买国货，当然其他国家就不买你救市的国债，而你要是政府投入使用进口，那么你刺激经济的效果就是针对全球，但是即使是针对全球，也要从全球吸取资金过来，这样照样可以造成通缩。
还有一点世界将进入通缩的背景就是我们现在实行的是泡沫的货币主义，危机造成金融衍生产品的萎缩，这样衍生出来的广义货币、虚拟货币就大量的消失，这等于就是减少了货币的流通供应量，这个减少比政府投入的那看似巨大的货币多多了，就如我们的股市，这样从6000多点到2000点以下，十万亿以上的市值没有了，大家炒股的钱都人间蒸发了，大家就都没有钱了，这样的没钱就是货币财富的蒸发，远远多于政府的那一点投入，而现在股票回涨了一些，市场上的钱就多了，很多人又开始买房了，可以看到楼市的成交量在放大。
因此我认为当今危机阶段和以后的萧条阶段均会以通缩为主，等到经济复苏了，才是通缩到通胀的反转时期，到经济高涨的时候，长期的通缩会迎来报复性的通货膨胀的。在通缩的背景下，各种商品的长期价格一定是低迷的，股票也一定是低迷的，而债券和黄金应当进入牛市。
通缩与通胀的投资理财操作的理念是根本不同的，很多的金融大鳄就是利用老百姓的通胀恐惧，一再的以通缩套死老百姓的资金赚取巨额的利润，在世界上经济学者均是服务利益集团的，中国怎样被忽悠的历史大家也该知道一些，当初说中国的付利率，现在美联储是零利率；当初说中国要财政收支平衡，结果美国政府早已经资不抵债；当初指责中国的政策市，现在美国也在大搞政策市！想想这些事情，很多东西就理解了。
这里大家就很难理解了，发行货币多了，当然是通货膨胀，怎么可能是通缩呢？这要从危机的本质和现代货币发行的机制来说起。我们以前的经济是一个紧缺经济，包括世界其他发达国家在几百年前也是一样的，大家所需要的东西不足，生产力低下，而现在的危机是一个过剩的经济，过剩的产能造成危机，如果大家有通货膨胀的预期而拼命买东西的话，过剩的产能就发挥全部作用了，你要买入多少，就会有多少的东西卖给你，他们富裕的产能正好释放了，除非你购买的东西是绝对必需有无法大量扩大产能的，这在历史上是粮食，但是现在由于油价的降低，变成酒精的粮食和变成柴油的植物油正大大地富裕着呢！你因为通货膨胀预期的抢购拿那么多的东西不是能够消费的，或者是把以后几年消费的东西都买了，以后的消费还要更加萎缩，这萎缩一定就是通缩的背景。
而我们增发的货币，还有另外更加深入隐蔽的问题，在西方世界的货币发行是要依靠债券抵押的，我们的货币发行虽然不要债券抵押，但是我们为了加入WTO，也制定了限制政府滥发货币的《人民银行法》，该法律明确规定不允许政府向央行透支，也不允许政府直接把债券发行给央行，这样即使是印了钞票不能进入流通领域，就和冥钞没有什么区别，而我们的银行存款只是虚拟的账本游戏，在发钞行的账本上，他发行的在外流通的货币和他的银行存款没有什么两样。这一点在07年发行特别国债的时候已经被指违法，不得已这个一万五千亿的国债，还是委托商业银行承销。因此我们政府的加大投资所需要的资金，必须以发行债券和银行贷款来完成。而商业贷款必须有自有资金的投入，这投入只能是来自财政，但是危机使得财政收入降低，政府加大投资开支还大大增加，结果一定是财政赤字剧增，额外的赤字就只有来自债券，这样的海量债券的结果就是发行的债券要强行的从市场收走资金，而政府投资的银行贷款也是与市场竞争资金，结果市场中本来需要的资金血液反而被政府的投资抽走，这里政府人为的选择是否比市场的选择好呢？如果政府不进行这样的投资，让市场自行选择的话，效率经常是比政府人为的要好。
所以我们的政府投资只有把社会在场外观望不投资的钱吸引过来，才能够真正的带动经济的发展，因为这些资金投资股票和实业在经济危机的情况下风险大不敢，存银行利率低，所以会买入国债，而政府这样通过债券把资金集中进行投资，市场就活跃了。但是政府这样的投资造成了通货膨胀的预期，债券的发行就必须加大收益率，这样反而会吸引社会其他本来要投资和消费的资金进入，社会的资金反而是被抽紧了，政府加大财政投入的资金投放，结果社会上获取的这些资金会再次通过购买国债又回到政府的手中，政府的投入不但没有带动社会投资，反而白白的支付了利息。这样的结果政府就只有不断地加大财政投入，不断地发行债券，同时又不断地把社会的资金通过债券收回，最后这样的恶性循环就是大家都拿着债券，债券越来越多，政府的收入都变成了债券利息，政策最终出现了灾难。
同时政府在危机中偿还国债的来源由于经济的萎靡，投资的建设不可能有足够的价值产出，偿债只能是增加税收，而未来政府为了偿还国债而可以预见的税收增加的预期也会加重大家投资的谨慎，中国的名义税率已经太高了。还有的情况是社会的资金即使不进入债券，也进行囤积居奇的储备而不是投资到生产，很快就会把社会的资金全部收走，造成社会的货币流通严重不足，通缩就开始了，等到大家都感觉到通缩了以后，囤积居奇的商品再度流入社会，造成供应过剩，再次加重了通缩。
这样的情况在历史上也是有前科的，我们在98年后政府就采取了同样的扩大内需的积极的财政政策，结果是造成我们多年的长期通缩，人民币从贬值预期变成了升值预期。好在当初世界在处于泡沫的上升时期，中国的通缩问题被世界所消化，但是也落下向全球输出通缩的指责。但是现在全世界都在危机中，我们的石油、有色金属、房屋等等均价格腰斩，而有货币特性的黄金却逆势上扬，这样的情况从具体数据上也明确看到了通缩的到来。
而我们现在的世界美国的救市，也要依靠发行债券获得资金，但是在美联储的利率基本是归为零的情况下，政府救市赚取的钱也是依靠的债券，这些债券一定要吸收社会的资金，以前美国的国债是其他国家金融外汇储备的投资对象，吸取的资金不是美国内部的资金而是全球的资金，但是现在美国救市要买国货，当然其他国家就不买你救市的国债，而你要是政府投入使用进口，那么你刺激经济的效果就是针对全球，但是即使是针对全球，也要从全球吸取资金过来，这样照样可以造成通缩。
还有一点世界将进入通缩的背景就是我们现在实行的是泡沫的货币主义，危机造成金融衍生产品的萎缩，这样衍生出来的广义货币、虚拟货币就大量的消失，这等于就是减少了货币的流通供应量，这个减少比政府投入的那看似巨大的货币多多了，就如我们的股市，这样从6000多点到2000点以下，十万亿以上的市值没有了，大家炒股的钱都人间蒸发了，大家就都没有钱了，这样的没钱就是货币财富的蒸发，远远多于政府的那一点投入，而现在股票回涨了一些，市场上的钱就多了，很多人又开始买房了，可以看到楼市的成交量在放大。
因此我认为当今危机阶段和以后的萧条阶段均会以通缩为主，等到经济复苏了，才是通缩到通胀的反转时期，到经济高涨的时候，长期的通缩会迎来报复性的通货膨胀的。在通缩的背景下，各种商品的长期价格一定是低迷的，股票也一定是低迷的，而债券和黄金应当进入牛市。
通缩与通胀的投资理财操作的理念是根本不同的，很多的金融大鳄就是利用老百姓的通胀恐惧，一再的以通缩套死老百姓的资金赚取巨额的利润，在世界上经济学者均是服务利益集团的，中国怎样被忽悠的历史大家也该知道一些，当初说中国的付利率，现在美联储是零利率；当初说中国要财政收支平衡，结果美国政府早已经资不抵债；当初指责中国的政策市，现在美国也在大搞政策市！想想这些事情，很多东西就理解了。
Buffett optimistic despite Berkshire's worst year, prospects for more economic turmoil
Warren Buffett remains optimistic about the prospects for his company and the nation even though Berkshire Hathaway Inc. turned in its worst performance in 2008 and the widely-followed investor says the economy will likely remain a mess beyond this year.
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Buffett used his annual letter Saturday to reassure shareholders that the Omaha-based insurance and investment company has the financial strength needed to withstand the current turmoil and improve after the worst showing of Buffett's 44 years as chairman and CEO.
Buffett wrote he's certain "the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."
In between the news of Berkshire's sharply lower profit and a thorough explanation of its largely unrealized $7.5 billion investment and derivative losses, Buffett offered a hopeful view of the nation's future.
He said America has faced bigger economic challenges in the past, including two World Wars and the Great Depression.
"Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time," Buffett wrote. "It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead."
Buffett's letter appeared to mollify the concerns of many who follow the company, but it's not yet clear whether that will help Berkshire's Class A stock extend its rebound from the new five-year low it set last Monday at $73,500. On Friday, it closed up $250 at $78,600.
"If anything, I feel better than I did before I read it," Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman said. Berkshire's results could have easily been worse, he said.
But Buffett estimates Berkshire's book value -- assets minus liabilities -- declined 9.6 percent to $70,530 per share in 2008 -- the biggest drop since he took control of the company in 1965. Berkshire's book value declined only one other time under Buffett, and that was a 6.2 percent drop in 2001 when insurance losses related to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks hurt results.
Berkshire's Class A shares remain the most expensive U.S. stock, but they fell nearly 32 percent in 2008 and have declined 48 percent since setting a high of $151,650 in December 2007. That high came after an exceptionally profitable quarter that was helped by a $2 billion investment gain.
The S&P 500 fell 37 percent in 2008.
Within Berkshire, Buffett said the company's retail businesses, including furniture and jewelry stores, and those tied to residential construction, such as Shaw carpet and Acme Brick, were hit hard last year. Net income for those businesses slipped 3 percent to $2.28 billion, and Buffett said they will likely continue to perform below their potential in 2009.
But he said Berkshire's utility and insurance businesses, which includes Geico, both delivered outstanding results in 2008 that helped balance out the other businesses.
The Des Moines, Iowa-based utility division, MidAmerican Energy Holdings, contributed $1.7 billion to Berkshire's net income in 2008 thanks to more than $1 billion in proceeds from MidAmerican's failed takeover of Constellation Energy. That's up from the $1.1 billion utility profit that Berkshire recorded in 2007.
The insurance division, which also includes reinsurance giant General Re, contributed $1.8 billion in earnings from underwriting -- a drop of 17 percent from 2007. Buffett praised Geico CEO Tony Nicely's efficiency and his ability to increase Geico's market share to 7.7 percent of the auto insurance market last year.
"As we view Geico's current opportunities, Tony and I feel like two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp. Juicy targets are everywhere," Buffett wrote.
Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007.
Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.
Buffett devoted nearly five pages of his letter to shareholders to explaining the role derivatives played in the company's investment losses last year.
The derivatives Berkshire offers operate similar to insurance policies. Some of them cover whether certain stock market indexes -- the S&P 500, the FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom, the Euro Stoxx 50 in Europe and the Nikkei 225 in Japan -- will be lower 15 or 20 years in the future. Others cover credit losses at groups of 100 companies, and some cover credit risks of individual companies.
Buffett said he initiated all of Berkshire's 251 different derivative contracts because he believes they were mispriced in Berkshire's favor.
Analyst Justin Fuller, who works with Midway Capital Research & Management in Chicago, said he thinks the details Buffett offered about Berkshire's derivatives will help.
Fuller said two key things make Berkshire's derivatives different from the complex financial bets of the same name that other companies have used. Berkshire requires most payment upfront, so there's little risk the other party to the derivative will fail to pay. And Berkshire won't take part in derivatives that require the company to post substantial collateral when the value of the contract falls.
"I think laying those out as plainly and simply as he did with examples should calm investors' fears about derivatives," said Fuller.
Berkshire has received $8.1 billion in payments for derivatives which can be invested until the contracts expire years from now.
But Berkshire has to estimate the value of its derivatives every quarter. Buffett said he supports that mark-to-market accounting, but the Black-Scholes formula used to estimate that value tends to overstate Berkshire's liability on long-term contracts.
"Even so, we will continue to use Black-Scholes when we are estimating our financial-statement liability for long-term equity puts. The formula represents conventional wisdom and any substitute that I might offer would engender extreme skepticism," Buffett wrote.
Buffett said he made at least one major investing mistake last year by buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.
Berkshire increased its stake in ConocoPhillips from 17.5 million shares in 2007 to 84.9 million shares at the end of 2008. Buffett said he didn't anticipate last year's dramatic fall in energy prices, so his decision cost Berkshire shareholders several billion dollars.
Buffett says he also spent $244 million on stock in two Irish banks that appeared cheap. But since then, he's had to write down the value of those purchases to $27 million.
But Buffett also had several investing successes in 2008.
Berkshire committed $14.5 billion to fixed income investments in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co. Those investments carry high interest rates and give Berkshire the option to acquire stock in those companies.
To fund those investments, Buffett said he had to sell some of Berkshire's holdings in Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble Co. and ConocoPhillips even though he would have rather kept that stock.
"However, I have pledged -- to you, the rating agencies and myself -- to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow's obligations," Buffett said.
In that regard, Berkshire should be OK because the company finished 2008 with $24.3 billion cash on hand. That's down significantly from the $37.7 billion the company held at the end of 2007, reflecting the investments Buffett made during the year.
Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, carpet, jewelry, restaurants and utility businesses. And it has major investments in such companies as Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.
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Buffett used his annual letter Saturday to reassure shareholders that the Omaha-based insurance and investment company has the financial strength needed to withstand the current turmoil and improve after the worst showing of Buffett's 44 years as chairman and CEO.
Buffett wrote he's certain "the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."
In between the news of Berkshire's sharply lower profit and a thorough explanation of its largely unrealized $7.5 billion investment and derivative losses, Buffett offered a hopeful view of the nation's future.
He said America has faced bigger economic challenges in the past, including two World Wars and the Great Depression.
"Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time," Buffett wrote. "It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead."
Buffett's letter appeared to mollify the concerns of many who follow the company, but it's not yet clear whether that will help Berkshire's Class A stock extend its rebound from the new five-year low it set last Monday at $73,500. On Friday, it closed up $250 at $78,600.
"If anything, I feel better than I did before I read it," Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman said. Berkshire's results could have easily been worse, he said.
But Buffett estimates Berkshire's book value -- assets minus liabilities -- declined 9.6 percent to $70,530 per share in 2008 -- the biggest drop since he took control of the company in 1965. Berkshire's book value declined only one other time under Buffett, and that was a 6.2 percent drop in 2001 when insurance losses related to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks hurt results.
Berkshire's Class A shares remain the most expensive U.S. stock, but they fell nearly 32 percent in 2008 and have declined 48 percent since setting a high of $151,650 in December 2007. That high came after an exceptionally profitable quarter that was helped by a $2 billion investment gain.
The S&P 500 fell 37 percent in 2008.
Within Berkshire, Buffett said the company's retail businesses, including furniture and jewelry stores, and those tied to residential construction, such as Shaw carpet and Acme Brick, were hit hard last year. Net income for those businesses slipped 3 percent to $2.28 billion, and Buffett said they will likely continue to perform below their potential in 2009.
But he said Berkshire's utility and insurance businesses, which includes Geico, both delivered outstanding results in 2008 that helped balance out the other businesses.
The Des Moines, Iowa-based utility division, MidAmerican Energy Holdings, contributed $1.7 billion to Berkshire's net income in 2008 thanks to more than $1 billion in proceeds from MidAmerican's failed takeover of Constellation Energy. That's up from the $1.1 billion utility profit that Berkshire recorded in 2007.
The insurance division, which also includes reinsurance giant General Re, contributed $1.8 billion in earnings from underwriting -- a drop of 17 percent from 2007. Buffett praised Geico CEO Tony Nicely's efficiency and his ability to increase Geico's market share to 7.7 percent of the auto insurance market last year.
"As we view Geico's current opportunities, Tony and I feel like two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp. Juicy targets are everywhere," Buffett wrote.
Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007.
Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.
Buffett devoted nearly five pages of his letter to shareholders to explaining the role derivatives played in the company's investment losses last year.
The derivatives Berkshire offers operate similar to insurance policies. Some of them cover whether certain stock market indexes -- the S&P 500, the FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom, the Euro Stoxx 50 in Europe and the Nikkei 225 in Japan -- will be lower 15 or 20 years in the future. Others cover credit losses at groups of 100 companies, and some cover credit risks of individual companies.
Buffett said he initiated all of Berkshire's 251 different derivative contracts because he believes they were mispriced in Berkshire's favor.
Analyst Justin Fuller, who works with Midway Capital Research & Management in Chicago, said he thinks the details Buffett offered about Berkshire's derivatives will help.
Fuller said two key things make Berkshire's derivatives different from the complex financial bets of the same name that other companies have used. Berkshire requires most payment upfront, so there's little risk the other party to the derivative will fail to pay. And Berkshire won't take part in derivatives that require the company to post substantial collateral when the value of the contract falls.
"I think laying those out as plainly and simply as he did with examples should calm investors' fears about derivatives," said Fuller.
Berkshire has received $8.1 billion in payments for derivatives which can be invested until the contracts expire years from now.
But Berkshire has to estimate the value of its derivatives every quarter. Buffett said he supports that mark-to-market accounting, but the Black-Scholes formula used to estimate that value tends to overstate Berkshire's liability on long-term contracts.
"Even so, we will continue to use Black-Scholes when we are estimating our financial-statement liability for long-term equity puts. The formula represents conventional wisdom and any substitute that I might offer would engender extreme skepticism," Buffett wrote.
Buffett said he made at least one major investing mistake last year by buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.
Berkshire increased its stake in ConocoPhillips from 17.5 million shares in 2007 to 84.9 million shares at the end of 2008. Buffett said he didn't anticipate last year's dramatic fall in energy prices, so his decision cost Berkshire shareholders several billion dollars.
Buffett says he also spent $244 million on stock in two Irish banks that appeared cheap. But since then, he's had to write down the value of those purchases to $27 million.
But Buffett also had several investing successes in 2008.
Berkshire committed $14.5 billion to fixed income investments in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co. Those investments carry high interest rates and give Berkshire the option to acquire stock in those companies.
To fund those investments, Buffett said he had to sell some of Berkshire's holdings in Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble Co. and ConocoPhillips even though he would have rather kept that stock.
"However, I have pledged -- to you, the rating agencies and myself -- to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow's obligations," Buffett said.
In that regard, Berkshire should be OK because the company finished 2008 with $24.3 billion cash on hand. That's down significantly from the $37.7 billion the company held at the end of 2007, reflecting the investments Buffett made during the year.
Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies, including insurance, furniture, carpet, jewelry, restaurants and utility businesses. And it has major investments in such companies as Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co.
计算房产交易的费用
多亏现在有了网际网络，很多专业收费都是透明化了。律师和医生一样，都是属于专业人士，他们的收费都是要根据专业协会的准则来拟定的。由于大家的收费都是大同小异，所以我比较倾向于寻找自己信任的朋友来提供服务。
今天终于和一个律师朋友见面，得到了一些自己之前不了解的资讯。
在这里，先分享之前在网际网络找到的一些房产交易的收费。
假设我现在购买的房子是RM260，000。
Stamp Duty 1st RM100，000 X 1% = RM 1，000
RM160,000 X 2% = RM 3, 200
Legal Fees 1st RM 150,000 X 1% = RM 1,500
RM 110,000 X 0.7% = RM 770
其他的费用大约是RM1，000。
总数是RM7470。
如果银行批准的贷款是屋价的90%，贷款数额是RM234，000。
Loan Legal Fees 1st RM 150,000 X 1% = RM 1,500
RM 84,000 X 0.7% = RM 588
加上其他，大约RM300-RM500。
所以，整个过程大约要花费RM10，000。
目前，我看中的单位是土著单位。理由就是价格会比较低。
风险就是给了10% 定金后，不知道几时才能转换地契。
当然有机会不成功，不过10% 的定金是可以收回，只要在SPA 做一些特别条款既可。
之前问了一些人，大家都对土著单位却之不恭。而且有很多误解。
例如他们认为过后转手不容易。其实，这点不正确。只要你成功转换地契，那个单位将是可以公开卖给任何人。
举个例子，例如我成功以RM250，000成交。实际屋子的市价是RM280，000。
我就直接赚取了RM30，000 的价差。不过，记得风险就是10%的定金会被扣押和损失这笔资金的其他投资机会。
还有，购买屋子的时候，卖者之前用什么价格买，是不需要在意和加以考虑的。
举个例子，这里有些屋主叫价RM300，000。理由是以前的买价是RM265，000。加上银行利息和管理费，他们认为RM 300，000才是合理的。身为买者，我是不需要顾虑这些的。我只参考现在的市场状况和我愿意负担的价格。
今天终于和一个律师朋友见面，得到了一些自己之前不了解的资讯。
在这里，先分享之前在网际网络找到的一些房产交易的收费。
假设我现在购买的房子是RM260，000。
Stamp Duty 1st RM100，000 X 1% = RM 1，000
RM160,000 X 2% = RM 3, 200
Legal Fees 1st RM 150,000 X 1% = RM 1,500
RM 110,000 X 0.7% = RM 770
其他的费用大约是RM1，000。
总数是RM7470。
如果银行批准的贷款是屋价的90%，贷款数额是RM234，000。
Loan Legal Fees 1st RM 150,000 X 1% = RM 1,500
RM 84,000 X 0.7% = RM 588
加上其他，大约RM300-RM500。
所以，整个过程大约要花费RM10，000。
目前，我看中的单位是土著单位。理由就是价格会比较低。
风险就是给了10% 定金后，不知道几时才能转换地契。
当然有机会不成功，不过10% 的定金是可以收回，只要在SPA 做一些特别条款既可。
之前问了一些人，大家都对土著单位却之不恭。而且有很多误解。
例如他们认为过后转手不容易。其实，这点不正确。只要你成功转换地契，那个单位将是可以公开卖给任何人。
举个例子，例如我成功以RM250，000成交。实际屋子的市价是RM280，000。
我就直接赚取了RM30，000 的价差。不过，记得风险就是10%的定金会被扣押和损失这笔资金的其他投资机会。
还有，购买屋子的时候，卖者之前用什么价格买，是不需要在意和加以考虑的。
举个例子，这里有些屋主叫价RM300，000。理由是以前的买价是RM265，000。加上银行利息和管理费，他们认为RM 300，000才是合理的。身为买者，我是不需要顾虑这些的。我只参考现在的市场状况和我愿意负担的价格。
Friday, February 27, 2009
股市赢家十大铁律
股市中有无数先行者，他们的成败得失，值得后来者总结与借鉴。而其中的规律，对指导我们今后的投资，是大有裨益的。
一、以"我"为主，培养自己独立思考的能力
投资者首先需要修炼内功，并在股市的实践中逐步树立信心。我们在股市中经常看到这样的人：昨天还发誓要紧紧捂住某一只股票，今天却早已更换成另一个筹码，后日也不断改变主意，而后市个股走势却证明其原有思路无比正确。出现这样的结果，是投资者没养成以我为主、独立思考的好习惯所致，总是人云亦云，盲目跟风。
二、关注政策，决胜千里
实践证明，对股市真正起决定作用的仍是政策及国际环境的影响。例如2008年美国次贷危机全面爆发，并引起全世界金融市场剧烈动荡，而国内一系列经济刺激计划的出台，则带动相关板块和个股甚至整个市场大幅反弹。
三、深思熟虑，果断出击
投资者为避免盲目和仓促地追涨杀跌，应学会三思而行，在深思熟虑后，果断出击。如面对最近一个多月来沪深两市大盘触底反弹后的加速上行，以及诸多题材个股的大幅上扬，若不加思考地追涨，很容易成为套牢一族；而一旦选准了个股，在该股回落至自己的心理价位后，就可果断出手。
四、减少操作，力求全胜
在股市中并不是操作得越频繁收益就越大，多劳并非多得。如果自己不是短线高手，操作次数越多，失误也会越多；而失误越多，心态就越差；心态越差，操作失误就会更多，如此就形成恶性循环。若坚持每年进行少有的数次操作，准确出击，并注重低吸有序、高抛有节制的策略，自己的操作能力就会不断提高，而且收益也会放大。
五、持股勿贪多
我有一位朋友用近200万元的资金买了60只左右的股票，望着她那张整日忙碌得红艳艳的脸，我从心里为她着急。因为她的持股太多太分散了。我认为，持股太多首先表明投资者在投资前，没有做好必要的准备，诸如必要的学习、交流和研判；其次，在初次投资遭受损失后，没有选择正确规避风险的措施，误认为"大就是金，金就是好，好就是稳"，而不是缩回拳头，集中资金，集中精力，专注少数个股。每个人的精力有限，切不可作茧自缚，事倍功半。
六、掌握好买卖时机
投资者先要去掉"贪"字，静下心来，认真寻找和追踪可能的潜力股，准备介入；如果手中持有的股票不断攀升，应调整心态，平静心绪，理性思考，把握卖出时机。技术上，如拟买进，投资者应观察个股指标如RSI、KDJ等是否已在钝化区域，要确定之后，再结合其他因素考虑，方可耐心吸筹。如拟卖出，则应分析成交量的放大规模，关键指标是否高位钝化，放量时股价是否不升甚至调头。此时，若贪心大发，风险必大，赚钱梦必破。
七、劳逸结合，看不懂时就空仓
市场永远有机会，但风险无时不在。投资者久战股市，不注意休息，往往会失手。休整是为了以后更好地战斗，这也是理性投资的范畴。宁可空仓观望，去做些分析和研判的工作，也不可心神不定、坐卧不安地持股，那如同每日蚕食自身的精力。记住，空仓不是吃亏，是抢先规避风险、伺机行动前的必要准备。
八、少些凭空遐想，多些心理分析
许多投资者获利不知了结，套牢后不晓得及时止损，满脑子是一厢情愿式的单相思，总是自我安慰地认为，庄家还会拉升的。其实，这些投资者连震仓与出货都区分不出。这种幻觉变成幻想，从而演变成美妙的遐想，再由遐想真正落实到瞎想，结果被动得不可收拾。为了避免这种失误，辨别主流资金出没的真伪，就应该加大对管理层制定政策的心理研究，如政策出台的条件是什么？政策出台的根本动机是什么？主流资金是如何理解和判别管理层心理的？普通投资者又是如何想的？等等，还可以将此心理思维模式引申到板块、行业及个股当中，如此，将不难发现许多技术分析中难以得到的收获和惊喜。
九、自找麻烦
华尔街一位著名操盘手曾说："股市中赚钱很快，但亏钱也很快，而且，每次亏钱都是我赚了钱后，洋洋自得之时发生的。"投资者总沾沾自喜于一得之功，这是不可取的。但更重要的是失误后要善于总结，要自己给自己出难题，而不是简单地后悔，不是单纯地承认失误，要避免再一次摔倒在同一条河里的错误出现。
自我剖析，学习他人之长，补己之短，看似自寻烦恼，自找麻烦，其实是塑造成功的自我。记住，人不可妄自菲薄，更不可狂妄自大。
十、不求完美，只求收获
股市中不可能要求完美，而要有积小胜为大胜、积小赢为大赢的精神。永远记住，和你打交道的另外一个人比你聪明，这也是戒贪的一种方法。
一、以"我"为主，培养自己独立思考的能力
投资者首先需要修炼内功，并在股市的实践中逐步树立信心。我们在股市中经常看到这样的人：昨天还发誓要紧紧捂住某一只股票，今天却早已更换成另一个筹码，后日也不断改变主意，而后市个股走势却证明其原有思路无比正确。出现这样的结果，是投资者没养成以我为主、独立思考的好习惯所致，总是人云亦云，盲目跟风。
二、关注政策，决胜千里
实践证明，对股市真正起决定作用的仍是政策及国际环境的影响。例如2008年美国次贷危机全面爆发，并引起全世界金融市场剧烈动荡，而国内一系列经济刺激计划的出台，则带动相关板块和个股甚至整个市场大幅反弹。
三、深思熟虑，果断出击
投资者为避免盲目和仓促地追涨杀跌，应学会三思而行，在深思熟虑后，果断出击。如面对最近一个多月来沪深两市大盘触底反弹后的加速上行，以及诸多题材个股的大幅上扬，若不加思考地追涨，很容易成为套牢一族；而一旦选准了个股，在该股回落至自己的心理价位后，就可果断出手。
四、减少操作，力求全胜
在股市中并不是操作得越频繁收益就越大，多劳并非多得。如果自己不是短线高手，操作次数越多，失误也会越多；而失误越多，心态就越差；心态越差，操作失误就会更多，如此就形成恶性循环。若坚持每年进行少有的数次操作，准确出击，并注重低吸有序、高抛有节制的策略，自己的操作能力就会不断提高，而且收益也会放大。
五、持股勿贪多
我有一位朋友用近200万元的资金买了60只左右的股票，望着她那张整日忙碌得红艳艳的脸，我从心里为她着急。因为她的持股太多太分散了。我认为，持股太多首先表明投资者在投资前，没有做好必要的准备，诸如必要的学习、交流和研判；其次，在初次投资遭受损失后，没有选择正确规避风险的措施，误认为"大就是金，金就是好，好就是稳"，而不是缩回拳头，集中资金，集中精力，专注少数个股。每个人的精力有限，切不可作茧自缚，事倍功半。
六、掌握好买卖时机
投资者先要去掉"贪"字，静下心来，认真寻找和追踪可能的潜力股，准备介入；如果手中持有的股票不断攀升，应调整心态，平静心绪，理性思考，把握卖出时机。技术上，如拟买进，投资者应观察个股指标如RSI、KDJ等是否已在钝化区域，要确定之后，再结合其他因素考虑，方可耐心吸筹。如拟卖出，则应分析成交量的放大规模，关键指标是否高位钝化，放量时股价是否不升甚至调头。此时，若贪心大发，风险必大，赚钱梦必破。
七、劳逸结合，看不懂时就空仓
市场永远有机会，但风险无时不在。投资者久战股市，不注意休息，往往会失手。休整是为了以后更好地战斗，这也是理性投资的范畴。宁可空仓观望，去做些分析和研判的工作，也不可心神不定、坐卧不安地持股，那如同每日蚕食自身的精力。记住，空仓不是吃亏，是抢先规避风险、伺机行动前的必要准备。
八、少些凭空遐想，多些心理分析
许多投资者获利不知了结，套牢后不晓得及时止损，满脑子是一厢情愿式的单相思，总是自我安慰地认为，庄家还会拉升的。其实，这些投资者连震仓与出货都区分不出。这种幻觉变成幻想，从而演变成美妙的遐想，再由遐想真正落实到瞎想，结果被动得不可收拾。为了避免这种失误，辨别主流资金出没的真伪，就应该加大对管理层制定政策的心理研究，如政策出台的条件是什么？政策出台的根本动机是什么？主流资金是如何理解和判别管理层心理的？普通投资者又是如何想的？等等，还可以将此心理思维模式引申到板块、行业及个股当中，如此，将不难发现许多技术分析中难以得到的收获和惊喜。
九、自找麻烦
华尔街一位著名操盘手曾说："股市中赚钱很快，但亏钱也很快，而且，每次亏钱都是我赚了钱后，洋洋自得之时发生的。"投资者总沾沾自喜于一得之功，这是不可取的。但更重要的是失误后要善于总结，要自己给自己出难题，而不是简单地后悔，不是单纯地承认失误，要避免再一次摔倒在同一条河里的错误出现。
自我剖析，学习他人之长，补己之短，看似自寻烦恼，自找麻烦，其实是塑造成功的自我。记住，人不可妄自菲薄，更不可狂妄自大。
十、不求完美，只求收获
股市中不可能要求完美，而要有积小胜为大胜、积小赢为大赢的精神。永远记住，和你打交道的另外一个人比你聪明，这也是戒贪的一种方法。
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Oil Primed for Quick Climb, But Don't Fantasize About Return to 2008 Highs
If any market qualifies as rockier than equities, consider oil. Crude prices have done a complete roundtrip from $40 a barrel, up to $147/barrel last summer, only to tumble back down to today's levels under $40/barrel. So what exactly happened?
As our guest James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group, explains, oil's recent adventure was the result of a "perfect storm" of many factors.
Global demand was rising, along with hedge fund speculation.
The dollar was falling, boosting all dollar-denominated commodities.
China and other major oil consumers were providing fuel-price subsidies that propped up demand.
But by the summer of 2008, when those subsidies were removed and the global economy sputtered, oil's unraveling began. So is the oil party over? Not exactly. Once the economy begins its recovery, expect oil prices to race up to the $60-$70/barrel levels, Cordier forecasts.
And gasoline prices at the pump, heading into the crucial summer driving season? Higher, Cordier says. While demand may flatten as the economy slows and unemployment climbs, refiners are making less refined products such as gasoline and diesel to improve profit margins. We likely won't see prices topping $4/gallon like last summer, but hovering instead in the $2/gallon range.
And the likelihood of a return to $147 oil? "A fantasy," Cordier says.
As our guest James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group, explains, oil's recent adventure was the result of a "perfect storm" of many factors.
Global demand was rising, along with hedge fund speculation.
The dollar was falling, boosting all dollar-denominated commodities.
China and other major oil consumers were providing fuel-price subsidies that propped up demand.
But by the summer of 2008, when those subsidies were removed and the global economy sputtered, oil's unraveling began. So is the oil party over? Not exactly. Once the economy begins its recovery, expect oil prices to race up to the $60-$70/barrel levels, Cordier forecasts.
And gasoline prices at the pump, heading into the crucial summer driving season? Higher, Cordier says. While demand may flatten as the economy slows and unemployment climbs, refiners are making less refined products such as gasoline and diesel to improve profit margins. We likely won't see prices topping $4/gallon like last summer, but hovering instead in the $2/gallon range.
And the likelihood of a return to $147 oil? "A fantasy," Cordier says.
BEST WORLD: Low capex, high cashflow business
BEST WORLD is like a beauty queen who becomes more attractive with time. Year in, year out, since its listing in 2004, the company has delivered strong profit growth, as reflected in the title of a recent press release, “Best World delivers fourth year of consecutive growth since listing”.
As I dig deeper into the financial figures and familiarize myself with the business, I discover how well this company has done for its shareholders. Since its IPO, total shareholder return (that is, capital appreciation plus dividends) has been more than 600% as at Feb 29 this year, according to Bloomberg.
The company has stepped up its dividend payment now (final dividend of 2 cents, interim dividend 1.212 cents a share) when many companies are reducing theirs in times of uncertainty. For FY 2007, Best World increased its payout ratio from 34.8% in 2006 to 45% of its net profit. Better still, the higher percentage is on a higher base, as Best World’s net profit rose 13.9%.
Best World chairman Doreen Tan is a co-founder of Best World along with Dora Hoan.
Despite its fabulous business and shareholder orientation, Best World is a stock that some people hesitate to invest in simply because it is a multi-level marketing (MLM) company. A lot of people wrongly perceive it as pyramid selling, which is illegal in Singapore and many parts of Asia.
There are dubious businesses in the MLM industry, which focus their efforts on recruiting “sales representatives” who end up buying products for their own use and for inventory.
The reputable MLM businesses, on the other hand, mainly employ part-time, or sometimes full-time, sale representatives who use personal relationships and one-on-one selling to market products. The evidence points to Best World being a reputable MLM business.
Its compensation program, called ENP, does not make millionaires out of ordinary folk. However, it enables sales representatives to make decent money to add to their family’s resources. At least, one aspect of a “pyramid scheme” is at work in the Best World compensation plan. Thousands of individuals become its sales distributors to simply buy products at the “wholesale” price in order to use the products.
That’s why there’s only one sales distributor who is making S$500,000 and a few more who are making S$100,000 per year. These super distributors have a full-time commitment to sales and recruiting. Best has an estimated 2,000 such full-timers. On average, Best World’s active sales distributors earn sales commission of S$2,000 to S$2,500 per year.
The commission of top earners (which Best World terms as Silver, Gold and Platinum Directors) ranges from S$70,000 to S$500,000 per annum.
Best World sets a low consumption hurdle for members to sustain their membership. This gives me confidence that reported sales are quite close to actual consumption. In contrast, some competitors have higher entry-level sales hurdles to encourage aggressive selling by the agents.
Although sales growth is superior initially, the structure would leave unconsumed inventory stuck within the distribution channels eventually. According to its latest update, Best World has 148,428 distributors, of whom only 2,000 are full-timers. Best World's distributors consume about 75% of the products they buy.
Their demographics provide telling information about its main target market – females above 30 years old. About 95% of the full-time distributors are business builders.
Gross margins of more than 75%
This business model is undoubtedly compelling. It enjoys gross margins in excess of 75% without any corresponding huge need for capex. The sales force is independent and self-managed. Best World usually enters a new market when existing distributors start selling Best World products in this new market.
Membership has grown rapidly in recent years.
These distributors seek the Company’s permission to set up a Lifestyle Centre (“LC”) at their own expense. This centre acts as a storage and distribution point for the sales distributors. A certain percentage of sales is rewarded to these aggressive distributors for setting up LCs. When sufficient sales volume has been achieved, the company would set up a Regional Centre to enhance the marketing efforts of the products.
Best World has minimum receivables as all products are paid before they are sold. But the company does provide credit terms for some of its best sales people in regional markets. Best World has minimum working capital requirements.
Because of this unique market penetration strategy and the minimum working capital requirement, the company can continue to scale up the business without substantial requirements for working capital, property, plant and equipment.
In FY2007, its cash conversion cycle (that is, the time between the purchase of goods and the collection of payment) was shortened to 115 days as the company tightened collection days and inventory control. This compares well with FY 2006’s 110 days and FY2005’s 147 days.
Notably, Best World generated free cash flow of about S$14 million in FY07, compared to S$10.3 million in FY06.
Best World makes product quality a key priority. It sources for innovative products from its pharmaceutical GMP-certified OEM suppliers which are mostly based outside Asia. It plans to launch 10 new products every year. Sales growth is less driven by the number of launches and more by the emergence of the next blockbuster. While there is no guarantee of future product success, I see an emerging success.
Its DR’s Secret sold 200 sets/month when it was first launched in 1990. Currently, more than 5,000 sets are sold every month. Dr’s Secret sells for $384 per set, placing it among the mid-high tier of skincare product segment. My girlfriends say SK II sells for S$500+. A blockbuster product, the Negative Ionizer, costing S$750 sold pretty well in Singapore over the past 2 years. This same product was launched in Malaysia in May 06.
Best World keeps its SKU (or Stock Keeping Units) below 100 to make the sale proposition relatively simple for their mostly part-time independent sales force.
Hardly any receivables
Best World’s business is attractive because it is extremely cash generative and scalable. In FY2007, Best World's debtor days were 45 days, compared to payable days of 14 days. Receivables are tightly controlled by Best World.
Best World’s gross margins are attractive at 70-78%. The company sells its products to the distributors at a fixed Distributor Price (“DP”). Its distributors can sell the products onward to non-members at a 20% mark-up or Retail Price (“RP”).
However, the majority of the products are consumed by its own members. The company only books revenue at DP and prices its products at about 4-7x cost of goods sold (COGS). Historical margins were around 75%, which are higher than Amway’s 27%, Nu Skin’s 28% and the margins of traditional retailers such as Robinson and Metro. This implies that Best World’s products are priced at the mid-high range. This premium pricing reflects the quality of its products.
SPRING chairman Philip Yeo visiting Best World's HQ at Changi.
Selling and distribution expenses are the biggest cost component for Best World. These expenses are largely commissions for distributors to motivate them but there is a cap to ensure that selling expenses do not escalate out of control. The ENP program ensures that the company does not pay out more than 50.5% of revenue at any point. Instances of 50% payouts are rare, occurring only if all the distributors within a downline become optimally productive.
The beauty of MLM is the low capex requirements. There is little need to spend on fixed assets to run the business. As such, Best World’s free cash flow should be pretty close to its reported earnings. In Best World’s case, FY2007 net profit of S$13.5 million is close to FCF of S$14 million – and this pattern has prevailed in the past. With strong free cash flow, the Company can support sustainable dividends payout. The management has a policy to pay out 30% of its net profit as dividends to shareholders.
In FY2006, the Company paid S$4.125 million, or 2.5 cents per share, as dividend. For FY 2007, the Company increased it to S$6.125 million, or 3.212 cents, per share. I am sure the company can pay more in the future as it has a cash hoard of more than S$35 million and capex plans can be financed by its strong cash flow.
Ideally, Best World should consistently pay out more than 50% of its net profit as dividends, similar to Eu Yan Sang. This would help attract more institutional interest to the company, just as Eu Yan Sang has Aberdeen Asset Management as its anchor investor.
Future Plans
The management looks pretty focused, having publicly stated the markets that it would be expanding to in future. South Korea and the Philippines will be the new markets in 2008, while Japan and India will be next in 2009/2010. Given its track record in Indonesia, Malaysia and other markets, I believe the company should be able to execute its plans – with, hopefully, no more than a few bumps here and there.
A lot has been said about Best World’s expansion into China, touted to be the largest consumer market in the next five years. While there is no doubt that China, with its 1.3 billion population presents enormous opportunity for the company, I also believe that this is not an easy market.
Challenges will come along with opportunities. Let the management execute its plans in China the next 1-2 years and we will see how it grows along. In the meantime, if you are able to shake off any prejudice that MLM companies are bad eggs, this company is worth a second look, at least.
As I dig deeper into the financial figures and familiarize myself with the business, I discover how well this company has done for its shareholders. Since its IPO, total shareholder return (that is, capital appreciation plus dividends) has been more than 600% as at Feb 29 this year, according to Bloomberg.
The company has stepped up its dividend payment now (final dividend of 2 cents, interim dividend 1.212 cents a share) when many companies are reducing theirs in times of uncertainty. For FY 2007, Best World increased its payout ratio from 34.8% in 2006 to 45% of its net profit. Better still, the higher percentage is on a higher base, as Best World’s net profit rose 13.9%.
Best World chairman Doreen Tan is a co-founder of Best World along with Dora Hoan.
Despite its fabulous business and shareholder orientation, Best World is a stock that some people hesitate to invest in simply because it is a multi-level marketing (MLM) company. A lot of people wrongly perceive it as pyramid selling, which is illegal in Singapore and many parts of Asia.
There are dubious businesses in the MLM industry, which focus their efforts on recruiting “sales representatives” who end up buying products for their own use and for inventory.
The reputable MLM businesses, on the other hand, mainly employ part-time, or sometimes full-time, sale representatives who use personal relationships and one-on-one selling to market products. The evidence points to Best World being a reputable MLM business.
Its compensation program, called ENP, does not make millionaires out of ordinary folk. However, it enables sales representatives to make decent money to add to their family’s resources. At least, one aspect of a “pyramid scheme” is at work in the Best World compensation plan. Thousands of individuals become its sales distributors to simply buy products at the “wholesale” price in order to use the products.
That’s why there’s only one sales distributor who is making S$500,000 and a few more who are making S$100,000 per year. These super distributors have a full-time commitment to sales and recruiting. Best has an estimated 2,000 such full-timers. On average, Best World’s active sales distributors earn sales commission of S$2,000 to S$2,500 per year.
The commission of top earners (which Best World terms as Silver, Gold and Platinum Directors) ranges from S$70,000 to S$500,000 per annum.
Best World sets a low consumption hurdle for members to sustain their membership. This gives me confidence that reported sales are quite close to actual consumption. In contrast, some competitors have higher entry-level sales hurdles to encourage aggressive selling by the agents.
Although sales growth is superior initially, the structure would leave unconsumed inventory stuck within the distribution channels eventually. According to its latest update, Best World has 148,428 distributors, of whom only 2,000 are full-timers. Best World's distributors consume about 75% of the products they buy.
Their demographics provide telling information about its main target market – females above 30 years old. About 95% of the full-time distributors are business builders.
Gross margins of more than 75%
This business model is undoubtedly compelling. It enjoys gross margins in excess of 75% without any corresponding huge need for capex. The sales force is independent and self-managed. Best World usually enters a new market when existing distributors start selling Best World products in this new market.
Membership has grown rapidly in recent years.
These distributors seek the Company’s permission to set up a Lifestyle Centre (“LC”) at their own expense. This centre acts as a storage and distribution point for the sales distributors. A certain percentage of sales is rewarded to these aggressive distributors for setting up LCs. When sufficient sales volume has been achieved, the company would set up a Regional Centre to enhance the marketing efforts of the products.
Best World has minimum receivables as all products are paid before they are sold. But the company does provide credit terms for some of its best sales people in regional markets. Best World has minimum working capital requirements.
Because of this unique market penetration strategy and the minimum working capital requirement, the company can continue to scale up the business without substantial requirements for working capital, property, plant and equipment.
In FY2007, its cash conversion cycle (that is, the time between the purchase of goods and the collection of payment) was shortened to 115 days as the company tightened collection days and inventory control. This compares well with FY 2006’s 110 days and FY2005’s 147 days.
Notably, Best World generated free cash flow of about S$14 million in FY07, compared to S$10.3 million in FY06.
Best World makes product quality a key priority. It sources for innovative products from its pharmaceutical GMP-certified OEM suppliers which are mostly based outside Asia. It plans to launch 10 new products every year. Sales growth is less driven by the number of launches and more by the emergence of the next blockbuster. While there is no guarantee of future product success, I see an emerging success.
Its DR’s Secret sold 200 sets/month when it was first launched in 1990. Currently, more than 5,000 sets are sold every month. Dr’s Secret sells for $384 per set, placing it among the mid-high tier of skincare product segment. My girlfriends say SK II sells for S$500+. A blockbuster product, the Negative Ionizer, costing S$750 sold pretty well in Singapore over the past 2 years. This same product was launched in Malaysia in May 06.
Best World keeps its SKU (or Stock Keeping Units) below 100 to make the sale proposition relatively simple for their mostly part-time independent sales force.
Hardly any receivables
Best World’s business is attractive because it is extremely cash generative and scalable. In FY2007, Best World's debtor days were 45 days, compared to payable days of 14 days. Receivables are tightly controlled by Best World.
Best World’s gross margins are attractive at 70-78%. The company sells its products to the distributors at a fixed Distributor Price (“DP”). Its distributors can sell the products onward to non-members at a 20% mark-up or Retail Price (“RP”).
However, the majority of the products are consumed by its own members. The company only books revenue at DP and prices its products at about 4-7x cost of goods sold (COGS). Historical margins were around 75%, which are higher than Amway’s 27%, Nu Skin’s 28% and the margins of traditional retailers such as Robinson and Metro. This implies that Best World’s products are priced at the mid-high range. This premium pricing reflects the quality of its products.
SPRING chairman Philip Yeo visiting Best World's HQ at Changi.
Selling and distribution expenses are the biggest cost component for Best World. These expenses are largely commissions for distributors to motivate them but there is a cap to ensure that selling expenses do not escalate out of control. The ENP program ensures that the company does not pay out more than 50.5% of revenue at any point. Instances of 50% payouts are rare, occurring only if all the distributors within a downline become optimally productive.
The beauty of MLM is the low capex requirements. There is little need to spend on fixed assets to run the business. As such, Best World’s free cash flow should be pretty close to its reported earnings. In Best World’s case, FY2007 net profit of S$13.5 million is close to FCF of S$14 million – and this pattern has prevailed in the past. With strong free cash flow, the Company can support sustainable dividends payout. The management has a policy to pay out 30% of its net profit as dividends to shareholders.
In FY2006, the Company paid S$4.125 million, or 2.5 cents per share, as dividend. For FY 2007, the Company increased it to S$6.125 million, or 3.212 cents, per share. I am sure the company can pay more in the future as it has a cash hoard of more than S$35 million and capex plans can be financed by its strong cash flow.
Ideally, Best World should consistently pay out more than 50% of its net profit as dividends, similar to Eu Yan Sang. This would help attract more institutional interest to the company, just as Eu Yan Sang has Aberdeen Asset Management as its anchor investor.
Future Plans
The management looks pretty focused, having publicly stated the markets that it would be expanding to in future. South Korea and the Philippines will be the new markets in 2008, while Japan and India will be next in 2009/2010. Given its track record in Indonesia, Malaysia and other markets, I believe the company should be able to execute its plans – with, hopefully, no more than a few bumps here and there.
A lot has been said about Best World’s expansion into China, touted to be the largest consumer market in the next five years. While there is no doubt that China, with its 1.3 billion population presents enormous opportunity for the company, I also believe that this is not an easy market.
Challenges will come along with opportunities. Let the management execute its plans in China the next 1-2 years and we will see how it grows along. In the meantime, if you are able to shake off any prejudice that MLM companies are bad eggs, this company is worth a second look, at least.
BEST WORLD: Insights from FY08 analyst briefing
DIRECT SELLER Best World had over a dozen analysts and fund managers at its FY08 results briefing last week, and its management shared candidly how it is meeting the challenge of the tough economic climate.
The consumer-discretionary company netted some S$10.6 million in earnings for FY08, had net margins of 11.1% and sits on some S$30.6 million of cash.
Best World’s revenues come from sales of skincare, health supplements and other lifestyle health and beauty products to its members.
Not only do the members use Best World products themselves, they are also provided with comprehensive sales training as well as commissions for recruiting other members and for promoting sales.
Best World’s successful member-get-member platform has grown its membership base to 186,759 (customers) in about 10 countries in the Asia Pacific region.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are its key markets.
Indonesia is its largest market, with revenue contribution of 46% in FY08. While Indon sales have been robust – growing 14.5% yoy, a weaker rupiah resulted in sales contribution falling by 3.6% in Singapore dollars.
Best World recently met a hiccup in obtaining licensing for direct selling in China. A proposal to acquire 51% in Chinese direct seller Joymain lapsed after the Chinese party failed to obtain approval from their Ministry of Commerce.
Below is a summary of issues addressed by Best World’s executive director, Mr Huang Ban Chin, and its group financial controller, Ms Chew Nam Yeo, at the briefing.
Sales
Q: What is your best-selling product category?
A: Skincare, as most of our distributors are ladies. This contributes about 60% to our revenues.
Q: What is your longest selling product?
A: Health supplements. Our products do not have a limit on its life cycle. The popularity of a product line depends on how much commission it can generate for distributors.
Q: What will your advertising & promo expense look like for FY09?
A: A&P expense is booked as part of distribution cost, which together with commissions and other sales related expenses is about 40% of revenue.
We are not planning any substantial increase in our A&P expense.
Our advertising is prudent; that is, media channels chosen are specific to audience target rather than blitzes. For example, we may advertise in Lianhe Zaobao to reach the Mandarin speaking community but not in the Straits Times.
Best World's negative ionizer is a big ticket item which sells for about S$700.
Q: Why are sales per member declining (from S$668 in FY07 to S$514 in FY08)? How do you deal with this?
A: Our product structure is such that members usually make big-ticket purchases at the point of recruitment. Subsequent purchases are usually to replace consumable supplies.
For example, selling prices of some products like our negative ionizer and water filter are in the high hundreds but these are not consumables that generate replacement sales.
Thus, as our membership base grows, the existence of earlier recruits who buy less than the new recruits for the year will average down sales per member.
To address this, we are constantly rolling out new product lines and phasing out the older models in response to changes in market trends, regulations and cost of ingredients.
In 2009, we have a new product - first milk (Colostrum) health supplement, and Pureflo - a new generation of our water filteration system.
We also smooth out revenue by providing installment payment schemes.
Q: Do members pay to join as distributors?
A: There is a nominal once-off membership fee of S$25. This is payable upon recruitment and is used to offset costs of sales kits which include product and price catalogues, CDs etc.
Q: In your membership structure, what is the proportion of ‘business builders’ versus passive consumers?
A: The number of business builders (members who actively recruit new members and generate high-volume sales) is growing. This is especially true in China.
In the pipeline is a 3rd generation water filtration system capturing form and function.
Indonesia
Q: Have you maintained retail prices in Indonesia?
A: We raised prices twice in Indonesia last year. The first was for passing the burden of value-added tax to customers. The second was to offset the foreign currency loss we would incur as a result of the Indonesian Rupiah’s depreciation.
Q: What is your cash conversion cycle in Rupiah?
A: About 5 months.
Q: How are you planning to offset a decline in revenue from Indonesia?
A: Taiwan is a very resilient market and its people are very solution oriented in hard times. It is one market where direct selling recruitment rises during recessions.
Relationships are very important in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. For example, they would rather buy from someone they know than from a retail mall.
Taiwanese have a natural affinity for selling in China and we see potential in the Greater China market.
China
Q: What are your plans for expanding in China?
A: Joymain has been dropped but we are exploring other business partners. We are no longer considering joint ventures with Chinese direct sellers in order to sell under their license. Rather, we will apply for the license under the Best World corporate name.
Hong Kong is a tough market due to the relatively lower proportion of members who want to be business builders. However, it is important as an entry point to the China market.
Guangdong residents, for example, use established Hong Kong brands as a reference for product acceptance.
Q: Have you recovered your Rmb 20 million prepayment to Joymain for the acquisition?
A: Our prepayment is secured by Joymain’s unencumbered real properties independently valued to be worth about Rmb 40 million in April 2008. Currently we are going through the necessary procedures to recover the prepayment.
Group financial controller Chew Nam Yeo has a prudent cash control policy.
Outlook
Q: Have any of your competitors closed down?
A: A private company named WBG closed shop recently. The closure was due to a management problem rather than market conditions.
Q: Does this present opportunity for Best World?
A: Yes, we certainly see opportunity there.
Balance sheet and cash flow
Q: How did you achieve the improvement in receivables turnover (from 45 days in FY07 to 22 days in FY08)? Is that sustainable?
A: We had better credit management and receivables collection.
Q: Why did payables turnover fall (from 54 days in FY07 to 24 days in FY08)?
A: There are certain vendors with shorter payment terms.
Q: Are you holding your S$30 million of cash reserves in any structured products?
A: We are very prudent in cash management and mostly hold deposits in banks. We do not hold any stocks or bonds for speculation purposes.
A small proportion (S$3.5 million) is in principal-protected variable interest rate notes issued by banks.
We will need cash resources for our expansion as well as business opportunities that may arise in the course of the year.
The consumer-discretionary company netted some S$10.6 million in earnings for FY08, had net margins of 11.1% and sits on some S$30.6 million of cash.
Best World’s revenues come from sales of skincare, health supplements and other lifestyle health and beauty products to its members.
Not only do the members use Best World products themselves, they are also provided with comprehensive sales training as well as commissions for recruiting other members and for promoting sales.
Best World’s successful member-get-member platform has grown its membership base to 186,759 (customers) in about 10 countries in the Asia Pacific region.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are its key markets.
Indonesia is its largest market, with revenue contribution of 46% in FY08. While Indon sales have been robust – growing 14.5% yoy, a weaker rupiah resulted in sales contribution falling by 3.6% in Singapore dollars.
Best World recently met a hiccup in obtaining licensing for direct selling in China. A proposal to acquire 51% in Chinese direct seller Joymain lapsed after the Chinese party failed to obtain approval from their Ministry of Commerce.
Below is a summary of issues addressed by Best World’s executive director, Mr Huang Ban Chin, and its group financial controller, Ms Chew Nam Yeo, at the briefing.
Sales
Q: What is your best-selling product category?
A: Skincare, as most of our distributors are ladies. This contributes about 60% to our revenues.
Q: What is your longest selling product?
A: Health supplements. Our products do not have a limit on its life cycle. The popularity of a product line depends on how much commission it can generate for distributors.
Q: What will your advertising & promo expense look like for FY09?
A: A&P expense is booked as part of distribution cost, which together with commissions and other sales related expenses is about 40% of revenue.
We are not planning any substantial increase in our A&P expense.
Our advertising is prudent; that is, media channels chosen are specific to audience target rather than blitzes. For example, we may advertise in Lianhe Zaobao to reach the Mandarin speaking community but not in the Straits Times.
Best World's negative ionizer is a big ticket item which sells for about S$700.
Q: Why are sales per member declining (from S$668 in FY07 to S$514 in FY08)? How do you deal with this?
A: Our product structure is such that members usually make big-ticket purchases at the point of recruitment. Subsequent purchases are usually to replace consumable supplies.
For example, selling prices of some products like our negative ionizer and water filter are in the high hundreds but these are not consumables that generate replacement sales.
Thus, as our membership base grows, the existence of earlier recruits who buy less than the new recruits for the year will average down sales per member.
To address this, we are constantly rolling out new product lines and phasing out the older models in response to changes in market trends, regulations and cost of ingredients.
In 2009, we have a new product - first milk (Colostrum) health supplement, and Pureflo - a new generation of our water filteration system.
We also smooth out revenue by providing installment payment schemes.
Q: Do members pay to join as distributors?
A: There is a nominal once-off membership fee of S$25. This is payable upon recruitment and is used to offset costs of sales kits which include product and price catalogues, CDs etc.
Q: In your membership structure, what is the proportion of ‘business builders’ versus passive consumers?
A: The number of business builders (members who actively recruit new members and generate high-volume sales) is growing. This is especially true in China.
In the pipeline is a 3rd generation water filtration system capturing form and function.
Indonesia
Q: Have you maintained retail prices in Indonesia?
A: We raised prices twice in Indonesia last year. The first was for passing the burden of value-added tax to customers. The second was to offset the foreign currency loss we would incur as a result of the Indonesian Rupiah’s depreciation.
Q: What is your cash conversion cycle in Rupiah?
A: About 5 months.
Q: How are you planning to offset a decline in revenue from Indonesia?
A: Taiwan is a very resilient market and its people are very solution oriented in hard times. It is one market where direct selling recruitment rises during recessions.
Relationships are very important in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. For example, they would rather buy from someone they know than from a retail mall.
Taiwanese have a natural affinity for selling in China and we see potential in the Greater China market.
China
Q: What are your plans for expanding in China?
A: Joymain has been dropped but we are exploring other business partners. We are no longer considering joint ventures with Chinese direct sellers in order to sell under their license. Rather, we will apply for the license under the Best World corporate name.
Hong Kong is a tough market due to the relatively lower proportion of members who want to be business builders. However, it is important as an entry point to the China market.
Guangdong residents, for example, use established Hong Kong brands as a reference for product acceptance.
Q: Have you recovered your Rmb 20 million prepayment to Joymain for the acquisition?
A: Our prepayment is secured by Joymain’s unencumbered real properties independently valued to be worth about Rmb 40 million in April 2008. Currently we are going through the necessary procedures to recover the prepayment.
Group financial controller Chew Nam Yeo has a prudent cash control policy.
Outlook
Q: Have any of your competitors closed down?
A: A private company named WBG closed shop recently. The closure was due to a management problem rather than market conditions.
Q: Does this present opportunity for Best World?
A: Yes, we certainly see opportunity there.
Balance sheet and cash flow
Q: How did you achieve the improvement in receivables turnover (from 45 days in FY07 to 22 days in FY08)? Is that sustainable?
A: We had better credit management and receivables collection.
Q: Why did payables turnover fall (from 54 days in FY07 to 24 days in FY08)?
A: There are certain vendors with shorter payment terms.
Q: Are you holding your S$30 million of cash reserves in any structured products?
A: We are very prudent in cash management and mostly hold deposits in banks. We do not hold any stocks or bonds for speculation purposes.
A small proportion (S$3.5 million) is in principal-protected variable interest rate notes issued by banks.
We will need cash resources for our expansion as well as business opportunities that may arise in the course of the year.
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