巴菲特对预测股票市场的走势与买卖时机缺乏信心，同样，他也不认为有任何资料能用于判断宏观经济形势。巴菲特不关注失业数字、利率和汇率，也不让政治因素干扰其投资决策过程。巴菲特认为，宏观经济就象跑道上的赛马一样，有些时候跑得快而有些时候跑得慢。巴菲特将兴趣更为集中在企业的基本情况上。不过，巴菲特非常关注通货膨胀，因为通货膨胀会影响企业的收益水平。
那么，巴菲特眼中的通货膨胀是个什么东东呢？巴菲特始终认为通货膨胀是一个政治现象而非经济现象。因为迄今为止，仍然没有对政府支出进行严格限制。钞票的不断印刷推动通货膨胀率越来越高。巴菲特承认他不能确知高通货膨胀何时出现，但他认为赤字财政不可避免会导致通货膨胀。巴菲特对预算赤字的恐惧程度小于对贸易赤字的恐惧程度。因为美国经济实力强大，巴菲特相信国家能处理好预算赤字。但巴菲特非常担忧贸易逆差。可以说贸易逆差是形成他对通货膨胀“偏见”的一个不可缺少的因素。
上个世纪80年代，美国人的消费超过其自身生产的产品。也就是说，美国人不仅消费了其本国生产的产品，而且他们的胃口还消化了外国的商品。在交换这些商品时，美国发行了各式各样的提单，包括美国政府债券、公司债券和美国银行存款。这些提单一直在以惊人的速度增长。但由于美国是一个富国，这些贸易逆差在一段时间内还不会引人注意，但最终这些提单会交换美国的财产和美国的生产设施。
一个国家处理贸易逆差最简单的方法是通过国内的高通货膨胀来减少这些提单的价值。但巴菲特认为，外国投资者对美国偿还未来提单能力的信任被误导了。当外国人持有的提单达到一个不可处理的水平时，通货膨胀的诱惑就不可抵御了。对一个债务国而言，通货膨胀是一个氢弹级的经济手段。基于这个原因，极少的债务国被允许以本币偿付债务，但因为美国经济的完整性，外国人愿意购买美国的债券。
但如果美国用通货膨胀来逃避对外国的债务，那么因此而蒙受损失的将不仅仅是外国的债权人。
高通货膨胀加重了公司对股东收益的负担。为使投资者获得真正的收益，公司必须获得比投资者的痛苦指数（指税收与通货膨胀的总和）更高的净资产收益率。
所得税从来不会将公司正收益变为股东的负收益。如果通货膨胀率为0的话，即使所得税税率为90%，仍会有股东收益。但是，正如巴菲特在上个世纪70年代亲眼目睹的那样，随着通货膨胀率的上升，公司必须为股东提供更高的净资产收益率。对于净资产收益率达到20%的公司（很少有公司能达到这个水平）来说，处在12%的通货膨胀率之下，只能给股东留下很少的东西。当所得税税率为50%时，一个净资产收益率为20%、并且全部利润用于分红的公司，其实际净收益率只有10%。在12%的通货膨胀率之下，股东获得的购买力仅仅为年初的98%。当所得税税率为33%，如果通货膨胀率为8%，则净资产收益率为12%的公司对股东的回报便降为0。
多年来，传统观念一致认为股票是与通货膨胀相对冲的工具。投资者也往往相信，公司自然会把通货膨胀的代价转嫁给消费者，从而保护公司股东的投资价值。但是巴菲特不同意这种观点。他认为通货膨胀并不能保证公司获得更高的净资产收益率。
一般来说，企业可以通过以下5种方法提高净资产收益率：
1、提高资产周转率；2、增加经营利润；3、减少纳税；4、提高财务杠杆比率；5、使用更便宜的财务杠杆。
在第一种方法中，通过对应收账款、存货和固定资产（厂房与设备）
进行分析，巴菲特发现，应收账款通常与销售收入同比例增长，而无论这种增长是由于销售量增加或是价格提高的结果。因此，从这个角度看，并不能通过提高应收账款周转率来改善净资产收益率。但存货并不就是如此简单了。增加销售收入会相应增加存货周转率。短期内，存货会由于供应关系的瓦解、采购成本的变化等因素而变化无常，那些使用后进先出法核算存货的公司在通货膨胀时期能改善净资产收益率。但巴菲特认为，通货膨胀从1975年开始持续上升，但在1975年的前10年内，《财富》前500家大公司的存货周转率也仅从1.18%上升至1.29%。由于销售收入比资本支出增加更快，通货膨胀还有增加固定资产周转率的趋势。但是，如果这些固定资产被重置，资产周转率就会下降，直到通货膨胀的上升与销售收入及固定资产价值上升一致。
多数企业经理人认为总有增加经营利润的可能，从而相应能增加净资产收益率。但巴菲特指出，通货膨胀对经理们控制成本的帮助作用极小。
公司面对的非利息、非税收成本是原材料、能源和劳动成本。在通货膨胀期间，这些成本通常是上升的。从统计角度看，美国大多数制造业公司在20世纪60年代取得了8.6%的税前销售利润率，到处于通货膨胀上升时期的1975年，这个比率是8%，呈现出通货膨胀上升，经营利润率下降的态势。
在考虑较低的所得税时，巴菲特提请人们设想投资者持有D类股票，而A、B、C类股票被联邦、州和地方政府持有并代表它们各自的独立税收权。虽然A、B、C类股票的股东不拥有公司的资产，但它们确实占有公司收入的很大份额。A、B、C类股票的股东可以投票决定增加它们在公司收入中的份额。但A、B、C类股票的股东这样做的时候，D类股票股东的收入就减少了，净资产收益率相应下降。在通货膨胀上升时期，投资者能设想A、B、C类股票的股东会减少它们在公司收入中的份额吗？
公司可以通过提高财务杠杆或使用更便宜的财务杠杆提高净资产收益率。然而，通货膨胀不会导致借款利率下降，相反，在通货膨胀时期，资本需要升值，迫使借款人提高利率。另外，当通货膨胀率上升时，由于借款人对未来的不信任，需要将他们的借款利率予以上浮，即使实际利率不增加，以利率略高的贷款替代到期的低利率贷款也会增加公司的财务费用。
具有讽刺意义的是，那些能够偿还债务的公司往往只有很少的贷款需求，而那些拼命挣扎以求保持盈利的公司总是站在银行窗口的最前面。那些因为通货膨胀而预计有更高的资本需求的公司不得不大举借债。在公司运营速度减慢和资本需求增加的情况下，公司因持续经营而需要在资本市场寻求更多的资金，或者，在更戏剧性的情况下，削减红利的支付。如果管理得当，增加财务杠杆能增加净资产收益率。然而，在通货膨胀上升时，更高的财务杠杆带来的好处会被更高的利率所抵消。
巴菲特考察了战后美国的净资产收益率的历史记录，并且由此总结出收益水平波动很小。在考察二战后每隔10年的情况时，巴菲特注意到道.琼斯 工业指数(行情 股吧)对应的公司在1945年—1955年的10年间，净资产收益率平均为12.8%；1945年—1965年期间，净资产收益率平均为10.1%；1945年—1975年期间，净资产收益率平均为10.7%。而《财富》500家最大公司中，1945年—1955年10年间，净资产收益率平均为11.2%；1945年—1965年期间，净资产收益率平均为11%；1945年—1975年期间，大多数美国公司的净资产收益率在10%—12%之间。净资产收益率的历史记录显示出与通货膨胀的上升与下降毫无关系。至此，巴菲特令人信服地证实了高通货膨胀与公司谋求更高的净资产收益率毫无帮助。
巴菲特深知不能从通货膨胀中获利，转而寻找其他方法予以规避那些会被通货膨胀伤害的公司。巴菲特认为，需要大量固定资产支出来维持经营的企业往往会受到通货膨胀的伤害；需要较少的固定资产支出的企业也会受到通货膨胀的伤害，但伤害程度要小得多；经济商誉高的企业受到的伤害最小。
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Buffett On Investing In Metals As Inflation Protection
We would not necessarily view metals investing as protection against inflation. The best protection is your own earnings power, whether the currency is in seashells or paper money. A first-class surgeon or teacher will do alright in terms of commanding the earning power of other people. The second best protection is owning a wonderful business, not metals or raw materials or minerals.
The truth is, if you own Coca-Cola or Snickers bars or anything that people are going to want to give a portion of their current income to keep getting, and it has low capital-investment requirements, that’s the best investment you can possibly have in an inflationary world.
But an inflationary world is not a good thing. We try to own good businesses. I think Berkshire (BRK.A) wouldn’t do as well in real terms during periods of high rates of inflation vs. low rates, but we’d probably do better than most businesses.
Buffett On Commodities
We have no opinion on commodities. If we’re in an oil stock, it means we think it offers a lot of value at this price. If we think oil is going up, we could buy oil futures, which we did once.
We think the South Korean Posco (PKX) is one of the best steel companies in the world. When we bought it, it was at 4-5x earnings, had a debt-free balance sheet and was the low-cost producer.
You can find some businesses with minimal capital investment. See’s Candy does not require much capital investment. It’s a small business, but a wonderful business – a far better business, adjusted for size, than any steel or oil business. We do everything we can to make it bigger.
We do not have a favorable bias toward any commodity-related business. If we have any bias, it’s against.
The truth is, if you own Coca-Cola or Snickers bars or anything that people are going to want to give a portion of their current income to keep getting, and it has low capital-investment requirements, that’s the best investment you can possibly have in an inflationary world.
But an inflationary world is not a good thing. We try to own good businesses. I think Berkshire (BRK.A) wouldn’t do as well in real terms during periods of high rates of inflation vs. low rates, but we’d probably do better than most businesses.
Buffett On Commodities
We have no opinion on commodities. If we’re in an oil stock, it means we think it offers a lot of value at this price. If we think oil is going up, we could buy oil futures, which we did once.
We think the South Korean Posco (PKX) is one of the best steel companies in the world. When we bought it, it was at 4-5x earnings, had a debt-free balance sheet and was the low-cost producer.
You can find some businesses with minimal capital investment. See’s Candy does not require much capital investment. It’s a small business, but a wonderful business – a far better business, adjusted for size, than any steel or oil business. We do everything we can to make it bigger.
We do not have a favorable bias toward any commodity-related business. If we have any bias, it’s against.
通货膨胀有望来临 积极投资是理财上策
通胀将侵蚀储蓄和债券这些消极投资的购买力，从保值增值的角度出发，应该适时调整投资组合通胀来临积极投资是上策
根据已公布的统计数据，目前经济已开始从通货紧缩向通货膨胀转变。尽管还不能就此断定我们将面临新一轮的通货膨胀周期，但从理财来说早做打算总是聪明之举。所谓的通货膨胀简而言之就是货币贬值，当发生严重和恶性通货膨胀时将导致通货膨胀率高于银行存
款利率，那么银行的利率将是负利率。
从理财的角度来说人们通常选择能在一定程度上回避通货膨胀风险的投资品种，如股票、房地产、艺术品、珠宝、黄金等。在通货膨胀周期里储蓄的购买力将下降，债券和银行存款尤其脆弱，这对拥有大量债券和银行存款的中国老百姓来说不是一个好消息。
通货膨胀是财富的天敌，通货膨胀对现金或存款形式的财富威胁危害最大，对付通货膨胀的最好方法是赶在通胀前及时投资传统上的预防通货膨胀的对策：珍贵金属和房地产，这一对策在应付未来可能的通货膨胀依然有效。
其实在一个标准的投资组合中应该包括股票、房地产、艺术品、珠宝、黄金等等，只是在预期通货膨胀周期来临之前适度的调整投资组合(比如适当增加珍贵金属和房地产的投资比重)以让家庭资产能更有效的回避通货膨胀的风险。下面简单谈谈珍贵金属和房地产的投资。
1、贵金属：
黄金一般被看作是珍贵金属投资的首选(当然还有另一种变通方式就是购买金矿公司的股票)。眼下国人对黄金金融的兴趣和激情空前高涨。从国际经验来看，长期中黄金价格无论升幅还是波动幅度都是很可观的，黄金兼备保值和投资品的功能。就过去的历史而言黄金价格的长期缓慢向上走势决定了其具有保值功能，它可以确保人们的已有收入不被长期中一直存在的通货膨胀所吞噬。当必须看到，黄金是长期中抵御风险的较佳投资品，投资黄金的风险低，其投资回报率也相对较低。
黄金投资在个人投资组合中所占比例不宜太高，且应在黄金价格相对平稳或走低时“吃进”为好。
2、房地产：
不管将来你的房子的价格如何变化，你的家仍旧会为你提供一个对付通货膨胀的真正的对策。得到房子后，你就可以住在里面，这样就省下了一大笔租金，这样即使房租上涨也不会影响你了。从长期来看，房地产的平均价格是一直在上涨，在最近几十年里，比通货膨胀率增长得要快得多。房地产理财一般包括两个方面，一是涉及房产购买行为的房产投资理财；二是对现有的房产现状进行适当安排的权益理财，包括适当的财务安排，这两个方面在具体操作上又存在着某些交叉。房产投资理财是利用房屋产权具有可分割性的特性，理财者购买房产后，可以期望通过转让或者出租以获取差价或者租金收益。房产投资标的按照不同的区分标准可以有多种分类，如期房和现房、居住用房和非居住用房、一手房和二手房等，这些分类可以适当组合并且还可以进一步进行细分。
理财者应该量力而行，这里讲的“力”，不仅包括财力还包括能力，特别是在房产投资在这一点的评估上特别的重要。
根据已公布的统计数据，目前经济已开始从通货紧缩向通货膨胀转变。尽管还不能就此断定我们将面临新一轮的通货膨胀周期，但从理财来说早做打算总是聪明之举。所谓的通货膨胀简而言之就是货币贬值，当发生严重和恶性通货膨胀时将导致通货膨胀率高于银行存
款利率，那么银行的利率将是负利率。
从理财的角度来说人们通常选择能在一定程度上回避通货膨胀风险的投资品种，如股票、房地产、艺术品、珠宝、黄金等。在通货膨胀周期里储蓄的购买力将下降，债券和银行存款尤其脆弱，这对拥有大量债券和银行存款的中国老百姓来说不是一个好消息。
通货膨胀是财富的天敌，通货膨胀对现金或存款形式的财富威胁危害最大，对付通货膨胀的最好方法是赶在通胀前及时投资传统上的预防通货膨胀的对策：珍贵金属和房地产，这一对策在应付未来可能的通货膨胀依然有效。
其实在一个标准的投资组合中应该包括股票、房地产、艺术品、珠宝、黄金等等，只是在预期通货膨胀周期来临之前适度的调整投资组合(比如适当增加珍贵金属和房地产的投资比重)以让家庭资产能更有效的回避通货膨胀的风险。下面简单谈谈珍贵金属和房地产的投资。
1、贵金属：
黄金一般被看作是珍贵金属投资的首选(当然还有另一种变通方式就是购买金矿公司的股票)。眼下国人对黄金金融的兴趣和激情空前高涨。从国际经验来看，长期中黄金价格无论升幅还是波动幅度都是很可观的，黄金兼备保值和投资品的功能。就过去的历史而言黄金价格的长期缓慢向上走势决定了其具有保值功能，它可以确保人们的已有收入不被长期中一直存在的通货膨胀所吞噬。当必须看到，黄金是长期中抵御风险的较佳投资品，投资黄金的风险低，其投资回报率也相对较低。
黄金投资在个人投资组合中所占比例不宜太高，且应在黄金价格相对平稳或走低时“吃进”为好。
2、房地产：
不管将来你的房子的价格如何变化，你的家仍旧会为你提供一个对付通货膨胀的真正的对策。得到房子后，你就可以住在里面，这样就省下了一大笔租金，这样即使房租上涨也不会影响你了。从长期来看，房地产的平均价格是一直在上涨，在最近几十年里，比通货膨胀率增长得要快得多。房地产理财一般包括两个方面，一是涉及房产购买行为的房产投资理财；二是对现有的房产现状进行适当安排的权益理财，包括适当的财务安排，这两个方面在具体操作上又存在着某些交叉。房产投资理财是利用房屋产权具有可分割性的特性，理财者购买房产后，可以期望通过转让或者出租以获取差价或者租金收益。房产投资标的按照不同的区分标准可以有多种分类，如期房和现房、居住用房和非居住用房、一手房和二手房等，这些分类可以适当组合并且还可以进一步进行细分。
理财者应该量力而行，这里讲的“力”，不仅包括财力还包括能力，特别是在房产投资在这一点的评估上特别的重要。
通胀压力下的理财对策
在你的投资理财规划里，通货膨胀就应该是被考虑在内的因素之一 。
重新认识一下以下这些投资产品，有助于你在和通货膨胀打交道时，更好地设计自己的资产配置和理财规划。
经得起通胀考验的股票
在适度通货膨胀的情况下，股票具有一定的保值功能，适度的通货膨胀还可以造成有支付能力的有效需求增加，从而刺激生产的发展和证券投资的活跃。如果你持有股票或股票基金，那么你实际上已经拥有了一些通货膨胀防护措施。股票价格像是金枪鱼的罐头、汽油的加仑、蓝色牛仔裤一样拥有显著标志，部分原因是因为你拥有股票的公司销售产品。只要公司能够提升产品价格以保持通货膨胀步调一致，那么股东就得到保值，免受通货膨胀之苦。
通胀背景下的选股思路：
从微观的角度来看，毛利率低、运营杠杆高、财务杠杆高的企业在通胀环境下将有所受益。
从具体行业看，抵御通胀的行业主要集中在以下四类：一是资源性行业，即煤炭、能源、有色等。
黄金：最传统的通胀避风港
黄金的牛气不是没有来源的。一方面是今天美联储靠着扩大货币供给支援着贸易赤字，造成美元过剩，全球范围内兑主要货币大幅贬值；另一方面则是中国等发展中大国的供给持续恶化，造成粮食价格暴涨，物价极不稳定。这样一来，对于一国的央行也好，对于普通百姓也好，持有货币已经失去的增值和利息的稳定收益，反而变为一种实质性亏损，黄金便理所当然的要被推向市场交易的风口浪尖上。
目前应该如何利用黄金调整资产配置，甚至于利用通胀获利呢？我们建议：
适当持有黄金 黄金的重要特点之一是与其他多数资产有负相关性，即黄金价格不受股票、债券、存款等其他投资方式收益率的变化而改变。我们都知道，过分持有一种资产（股票或存款）不是明智之举。黄金本身拥有巨大自身价值和升值空间，变现能力强且易于保存，因此，每个家庭黄金储备数量大概在家庭总资产的10％到30％之间比较合适。
房产：想说爱你不容易
近几年国内房价一路飚升，如果购房作为投资，需要综合考虑多方面因素。普通的投资者如果选择住宅投资，以下的区域可以重点关注。
关注租金回报较稳定的传统热点区域。支撑因素有三点，第一，传统热点区域存量房充足，便于投资者进行选择；第二，租赁需求旺盛，可以兼顾稳定的租金收入以及尽可能减少空置期；第三，热点区域价格呈现补涨趋势，可以为投资者带来额外的增值空间。
轨道交通沿线房产升值空间依然较大。这是因为，第一，轨道交通对于人气及各项配套起集聚的作用，可拉动沿线房价快速上涨；第二，轨道交通沿线房产往往出租收益稳定，空置期短。
收藏：不仅仅是艺术
有资料显示，艺术品投资是世界上效益最好的三大投资项目（另外两项为：金融、房地产）之一，其回报率之高，最终将跑赢房地产和金融投资，这已经成为全世界投资者们的共识。许多人开始把对艺术品收藏作为一种保值、增值的投资行为。
如果通胀来临，你需要想明白的事尽量多持有资产，比持有现金更为合算。这里的资产，不一定是实物资产。土地、房产、私人股权、股票、艺术品以及外币，都是资产。并非所有资产都会有超过通货膨胀的升值幅度。
有些资产的涨价幅度有可能低于通货膨胀率，说得更绝对一些，或许会低于银行定期存款利率。一定要记住，不是所有资产都会赚钱，要慎重选择投资品种。
特定时期，资产的市场价格有可能超过升值潜力。
既然你知道有通货膨胀，资产会升值，别人也会知道。大家一哄而上炒资产的结果，资产价格可能抬得过高。
举个例子，从长远来看，股票和房地产是最适合对抗通货膨胀的资产。世界上主要经济体中，鲜有这两种资产的长期走势不能跑赢通胀率的。假若你在适合的价格购入这两种资产，然后长期持有，几乎肯定会赚。问题在于，恰恰在流动性过剩的时期，这两种资产有可能相对变得不安全。原因正是过滥的流动性会提升通货膨胀预期，从而让大家把这两种资产价格炒得太高。投资心理实践一再证明，绝大多数人的投资决策是短视的。
总结以上三条，在通货膨胀时期的投资哲学就是：一）选择资产；二）选择特定资产；三）选择在特定时期投入特定的资产
重新认识一下以下这些投资产品，有助于你在和通货膨胀打交道时，更好地设计自己的资产配置和理财规划。
经得起通胀考验的股票
在适度通货膨胀的情况下，股票具有一定的保值功能，适度的通货膨胀还可以造成有支付能力的有效需求增加，从而刺激生产的发展和证券投资的活跃。如果你持有股票或股票基金，那么你实际上已经拥有了一些通货膨胀防护措施。股票价格像是金枪鱼的罐头、汽油的加仑、蓝色牛仔裤一样拥有显著标志，部分原因是因为你拥有股票的公司销售产品。只要公司能够提升产品价格以保持通货膨胀步调一致，那么股东就得到保值，免受通货膨胀之苦。
通胀背景下的选股思路：
从微观的角度来看，毛利率低、运营杠杆高、财务杠杆高的企业在通胀环境下将有所受益。
从具体行业看，抵御通胀的行业主要集中在以下四类：一是资源性行业，即煤炭、能源、有色等。
黄金：最传统的通胀避风港
黄金的牛气不是没有来源的。一方面是今天美联储靠着扩大货币供给支援着贸易赤字，造成美元过剩，全球范围内兑主要货币大幅贬值；另一方面则是中国等发展中大国的供给持续恶化，造成粮食价格暴涨，物价极不稳定。这样一来，对于一国的央行也好，对于普通百姓也好，持有货币已经失去的增值和利息的稳定收益，反而变为一种实质性亏损，黄金便理所当然的要被推向市场交易的风口浪尖上。
目前应该如何利用黄金调整资产配置，甚至于利用通胀获利呢？我们建议：
适当持有黄金 黄金的重要特点之一是与其他多数资产有负相关性，即黄金价格不受股票、债券、存款等其他投资方式收益率的变化而改变。我们都知道，过分持有一种资产（股票或存款）不是明智之举。黄金本身拥有巨大自身价值和升值空间，变现能力强且易于保存，因此，每个家庭黄金储备数量大概在家庭总资产的10％到30％之间比较合适。
房产：想说爱你不容易
近几年国内房价一路飚升，如果购房作为投资，需要综合考虑多方面因素。普通的投资者如果选择住宅投资，以下的区域可以重点关注。
关注租金回报较稳定的传统热点区域。支撑因素有三点，第一，传统热点区域存量房充足，便于投资者进行选择；第二，租赁需求旺盛，可以兼顾稳定的租金收入以及尽可能减少空置期；第三，热点区域价格呈现补涨趋势，可以为投资者带来额外的增值空间。
轨道交通沿线房产升值空间依然较大。这是因为，第一，轨道交通对于人气及各项配套起集聚的作用，可拉动沿线房价快速上涨；第二，轨道交通沿线房产往往出租收益稳定，空置期短。
收藏：不仅仅是艺术
有资料显示，艺术品投资是世界上效益最好的三大投资项目（另外两项为：金融、房地产）之一，其回报率之高，最终将跑赢房地产和金融投资，这已经成为全世界投资者们的共识。许多人开始把对艺术品收藏作为一种保值、增值的投资行为。
如果通胀来临，你需要想明白的事尽量多持有资产，比持有现金更为合算。这里的资产，不一定是实物资产。土地、房产、私人股权、股票、艺术品以及外币，都是资产。并非所有资产都会有超过通货膨胀的升值幅度。
有些资产的涨价幅度有可能低于通货膨胀率，说得更绝对一些，或许会低于银行定期存款利率。一定要记住，不是所有资产都会赚钱，要慎重选择投资品种。
特定时期，资产的市场价格有可能超过升值潜力。
既然你知道有通货膨胀，资产会升值，别人也会知道。大家一哄而上炒资产的结果，资产价格可能抬得过高。
举个例子，从长远来看，股票和房地产是最适合对抗通货膨胀的资产。世界上主要经济体中，鲜有这两种资产的长期走势不能跑赢通胀率的。假若你在适合的价格购入这两种资产，然后长期持有，几乎肯定会赚。问题在于，恰恰在流动性过剩的时期，这两种资产有可能相对变得不安全。原因正是过滥的流动性会提升通货膨胀预期，从而让大家把这两种资产价格炒得太高。投资心理实践一再证明，绝大多数人的投资决策是短视的。
总结以上三条，在通货膨胀时期的投资哲学就是：一）选择资产；二）选择特定资产；三）选择在特定时期投入特定的资产
像巴菲特一样投资中国股票
当前市场我们网员朋友要做好两项工作：
一项是：成长性股票（例如：中小板、3G等比如向宁波银行、北京银行等）
一项是：大盘篮筹股票（能够影响市场的权重股、有色、黑色、石油石化、军工、电力等）
网员朋友可以这样思考一个问题，2007年是居民理财年的大爆炸－储蓄大搬家；拥有了强大的融资能力之后，未来成长将成为一个新的主调。在此我们借用巴菲特的投资理念来把握我们的投资。
巴菲特投资理念的最根本原则 巴菲特投资理念的最根本原则
在“股神”巴菲特的投资名言中，最著名的无疑是这一条：“成功的秘诀有三条：第一，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第二，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第三，坚决牢记第一、第二条。”
1956年26岁的巴菲特靠亲朋凑来的10万美元白手起家，48年后的今天，福布斯最新全球富豪排行榜显示，巴菲特的身家已达到了429亿美元。今天看来，巴菲特的故事无异于神话。但仔细分析巴菲特的成长历程，巴菲特并非那种擅于制造轰动效应的人，他更像一个脚踏实地的平凡人。
虽然巴菲特是全球最受钦佩的投资家，但是机构投资者在很大程度上不理会他的投资方法，很少有投资咨询公司或养老金信托公司会委任他管理资金，巴菲特所掌控的伯克希尔公司股票，包括基金经理在内的大部份人都不会去买，也从没有分析师推荐他的股票。或许在很多人眼中巴菲特更像是一个老古董，他的投资理念与市场格格不入，总之巴菲特与其他人总有那么一点点区别与距离。或许正是这一点点区别决定了巴菲特只有一个，而我们都不是。
巴菲特理财攻略一：尽量避免风险，保住本金
在巴菲特的投资名言中，最著名的无疑是这一条：“成功的秘诀有三条：第一，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第二，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第三，坚决牢记第一、第二条。”为了保证资金安全，巴菲特总是在市场最亢奋、投资人最贪婪的时刻保持清醒的头脑而激流勇退。1968年5月，当美国股市一片狂热的时候，巴菲特却认为已再也找不到有投资价值的股票了，他由此卖出了几乎所有的股票并解散了公司。结果在1969年6月，股市大跌渐渐演变成了股灾，到1970年5月，每种股票都比上年初下降了50%甚至更多。
巴菲特的稳健投资，绝不干“没有把握的事情”的策略使巴菲特逃避过一次次股灾，也使得机会来临时资本迅速增值。但很多投资者却在不清楚风险或自已没有足够的风险控制能力下贸然投资，又或者由于过于贪婪的缘故而失去了风险控制意识。在做任何投资之前，我们都应把风险因素放在第一位，并考虑一旦出现风险时我们的承受能力有多强，如此才能立于不败之地。
巴菲特理财攻略二：作一个长期投资者，而不是短期投资者或投机者
巴菲特的成功最主要的因素是他是一个长期投资者，而不是短期投资者或投机者。巴菲特从不追逐市场的短期利益，不因为一个企业的股票在短期内会大涨就去跟进，他会竭力避免被市场高估价值的企业。一旦决定投资，他基本上会长期持有。所以，即使他错过了上个世纪90年代末的网络热潮，但他也避免了网络泡沫破裂给无数投资者带来的巨额损失。
巴菲特有句名言：“投资者必须在设想他一生中的决策卡片仅能打20个孔的前提下行动。每当他作出一个新的投资决策时，他一生中能做的决策就少了一个。”在一个相对短的时期内，巴菲特也许并不是最出色的，但没有谁能像巴菲特一样长期比市场平均表现好。在巴菲特的赢利记录中可发现，他的资产总是呈现平稳增长而甚少出现暴涨的情况。1968年巴菲特创下了58.9%年收益率的最高纪录，也是在这一年，巴菲特感到极为不安而解散公司隐退了。
从1959年的40万美元到2004年的429亿美元的这45年中，可以算出巴菲特的年均收益率为26%。从某一单个年度来看，很多投资者对此也许会不以为然。但没有谁可以在这么长的时期内保持这样的收益率。这是因为大部分人都为贪婪、浮躁或恐惧等人性弱点所左右，成了一个投机客或短期投资者，而并非像巴菲特一样是一个真正的长期投资者。
巴菲特理财攻略三：把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，然后小心地看好
究竞应把鸡蛋集中放在一个篮子内还是分散放在多个篮子内，这种争论从来就没停止过也不会停止。这不过是两种不同的投资策略。从成本的角度来看，集中看管一个篮子总比看管多个篮子要容易，成本更低。但问题的关键是能否看管住唯一的一个篮子。巴菲特之所以有信心，是因为在作出投资决策前，他总是花上数个月、一年甚至几年的时间去考虑投资的合理性，他会长时间地翻看和跟踪投资对象的财务报表和有关资料。对于一些复杂的难以弄明白的公司他总是避而远之。只有在透彻了解所有细节后巴菲特才作出投资决定。
由此可见，成功的因素关键在于在投资前必须有详细周密的分析。对比之下，很多投资者喜欢道听途说的小道消息或只是凭感觉进行投资，完全没有进行独立的分析，没有赢利的可靠依据，这样投资难免不会招致失败。
一项是：成长性股票（例如：中小板、3G等比如向宁波银行、北京银行等）
一项是：大盘篮筹股票（能够影响市场的权重股、有色、黑色、石油石化、军工、电力等）
网员朋友可以这样思考一个问题，2007年是居民理财年的大爆炸－储蓄大搬家；拥有了强大的融资能力之后，未来成长将成为一个新的主调。在此我们借用巴菲特的投资理念来把握我们的投资。
巴菲特投资理念的最根本原则 巴菲特投资理念的最根本原则
在“股神”巴菲特的投资名言中，最著名的无疑是这一条：“成功的秘诀有三条：第一，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第二，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第三，坚决牢记第一、第二条。”
1956年26岁的巴菲特靠亲朋凑来的10万美元白手起家，48年后的今天，福布斯最新全球富豪排行榜显示，巴菲特的身家已达到了429亿美元。今天看来，巴菲特的故事无异于神话。但仔细分析巴菲特的成长历程，巴菲特并非那种擅于制造轰动效应的人，他更像一个脚踏实地的平凡人。
虽然巴菲特是全球最受钦佩的投资家，但是机构投资者在很大程度上不理会他的投资方法，很少有投资咨询公司或养老金信托公司会委任他管理资金，巴菲特所掌控的伯克希尔公司股票，包括基金经理在内的大部份人都不会去买，也从没有分析师推荐他的股票。或许在很多人眼中巴菲特更像是一个老古董，他的投资理念与市场格格不入，总之巴菲特与其他人总有那么一点点区别与距离。或许正是这一点点区别决定了巴菲特只有一个，而我们都不是。
巴菲特理财攻略一：尽量避免风险，保住本金
在巴菲特的投资名言中，最著名的无疑是这一条：“成功的秘诀有三条：第一，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第二，尽量避免风险，保住本金；第三，坚决牢记第一、第二条。”为了保证资金安全，巴菲特总是在市场最亢奋、投资人最贪婪的时刻保持清醒的头脑而激流勇退。1968年5月，当美国股市一片狂热的时候，巴菲特却认为已再也找不到有投资价值的股票了，他由此卖出了几乎所有的股票并解散了公司。结果在1969年6月，股市大跌渐渐演变成了股灾，到1970年5月，每种股票都比上年初下降了50%甚至更多。
巴菲特的稳健投资，绝不干“没有把握的事情”的策略使巴菲特逃避过一次次股灾，也使得机会来临时资本迅速增值。但很多投资者却在不清楚风险或自已没有足够的风险控制能力下贸然投资，又或者由于过于贪婪的缘故而失去了风险控制意识。在做任何投资之前，我们都应把风险因素放在第一位，并考虑一旦出现风险时我们的承受能力有多强，如此才能立于不败之地。
巴菲特理财攻略二：作一个长期投资者，而不是短期投资者或投机者
巴菲特的成功最主要的因素是他是一个长期投资者，而不是短期投资者或投机者。巴菲特从不追逐市场的短期利益，不因为一个企业的股票在短期内会大涨就去跟进，他会竭力避免被市场高估价值的企业。一旦决定投资，他基本上会长期持有。所以，即使他错过了上个世纪90年代末的网络热潮，但他也避免了网络泡沫破裂给无数投资者带来的巨额损失。
巴菲特有句名言：“投资者必须在设想他一生中的决策卡片仅能打20个孔的前提下行动。每当他作出一个新的投资决策时，他一生中能做的决策就少了一个。”在一个相对短的时期内，巴菲特也许并不是最出色的，但没有谁能像巴菲特一样长期比市场平均表现好。在巴菲特的赢利记录中可发现，他的资产总是呈现平稳增长而甚少出现暴涨的情况。1968年巴菲特创下了58.9%年收益率的最高纪录，也是在这一年，巴菲特感到极为不安而解散公司隐退了。
从1959年的40万美元到2004年的429亿美元的这45年中，可以算出巴菲特的年均收益率为26%。从某一单个年度来看，很多投资者对此也许会不以为然。但没有谁可以在这么长的时期内保持这样的收益率。这是因为大部分人都为贪婪、浮躁或恐惧等人性弱点所左右，成了一个投机客或短期投资者，而并非像巴菲特一样是一个真正的长期投资者。
巴菲特理财攻略三：把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，然后小心地看好
究竞应把鸡蛋集中放在一个篮子内还是分散放在多个篮子内，这种争论从来就没停止过也不会停止。这不过是两种不同的投资策略。从成本的角度来看，集中看管一个篮子总比看管多个篮子要容易，成本更低。但问题的关键是能否看管住唯一的一个篮子。巴菲特之所以有信心，是因为在作出投资决策前，他总是花上数个月、一年甚至几年的时间去考虑投资的合理性，他会长时间地翻看和跟踪投资对象的财务报表和有关资料。对于一些复杂的难以弄明白的公司他总是避而远之。只有在透彻了解所有细节后巴菲特才作出投资决定。
由此可见，成功的因素关键在于在投资前必须有详细周密的分析。对比之下，很多投资者喜欢道听途说的小道消息或只是凭感觉进行投资，完全没有进行独立的分析，没有赢利的可靠依据，这样投资难免不会招致失败。
投资的至高境界：做熟不做生
在弘历公司，始终贯彻如一的投资理念是 “ 先大后小，先长后短，顺势而为，做熟不做生 ” ，这四句话，不但是弘历对于网员们的教导，同时也是投资哲学先易后难的四个阶段。其中的最后一句 “ 做熟不做生 ” ，很多网员并没有深刻的理解，甚至抛于脑后。可惜了，在武侠小说中，武功最上乘的招数是最后一式，在我们的投资理念中，恰恰是这最后一句，蕴藏着巨大的财富，他同样也是投资者获利的最高境界。
《福布斯》杂志发布了最新的全球富豪榜，沃伦·巴菲特以620亿美元的身价雄踞榜首。世界上做股票最好的人成了世界首富， “ 股神 ” 的思维模式我们也应该借鉴一下。巴菲特所信奉的是价值投资，他告诉投资者：买股票就是买公司，要深入了解你所投资的公司以及所处行业全部的状况，不要去碰你所不熟悉的行业以及公司。对此，弘历概括为一句话：做熟不做生。对于弘历的网员来说，使用 “ 先大后小，先长后短，顺势而为 ” 的原则可以保证你在众多股民中脱颖而出，但如果想要获得更加丰厚的利润，就要做到 “ 做熟不做生 ” 了。通过细致的分析，评估出公司的价值，这就是价值投资所要做的功课。
这里有的人可能会问，价值投资费时费力，如果我所研究的、所熟悉的股票不是热点，不是涨的最好的股票，我不是白白浪费了时间和精力？其实，这是一个误区，在过去的2007年中，几乎每个行业都有涨幅超过500%的股。但是，在股市中，获利超过100%的股民都很少，而与此同时，有些股民平时根本瞧不起翻一翻的股票。事实上，在过去的42年当中，股神巴菲特的平均年收益率是21.4%，而恰恰就是这个在普通股民看来微不足道的收益率，造就了今天的全球首富。这点足以证明，能够抓住你所了解的股票，就已经很了不起了。
巴菲特告诉我们：一个投资者真正应该具备的是评估一家上市公司的能力，而最后的投资业绩并不取决于你能够评估多少家上市公司，而在于你能否清楚的知道自己不能评估哪些公司。可见， “ 做熟不做生 ” 的真谛在于你是否真的了解你手中的股票所代表的公司。只有你熟悉了，了解了，你才有可能长期持有，你才有可能在市场下跌的时候不会惊慌失措，这才是投资的至高境界。
有人说，价值投资的分析方法相对比较繁琐，耗费时间和精力，普通投资者不容易上手。的确，在任何时候，你的付出和你的回报永远是成正比的，且不说股神，机构之所以获利的概率大，是因为他花费了大量的时间和精力进行了细致的分析，最后才能做出正确的投资决策。但是，很幸运，作为弘历的网员，机构的这份花费了大量的时间精力撰写成的一份份机构报告，我们可以通过《机构时代》软件的 “ 机构内参 ” 功能查阅，在阅读机构报告的时候，我们不但可以了解到机构所持的观点?????掌握各个行业的特点，更为重要的是，我们可以透过机构的思路，掌握评估上市公司的方法，从而学习价值投资的思维模式。
弘历的投资理念就好比武功的心法，真正做到不容易，一旦做到不简单。最后笔者提醒网员，弘历是一个股民学校，你们加入弘历最本源的目的是：通过在弘历的学习，最终使自己在投资道路上具备独立思考的能力。只有学会了独立思考，才能成为真正的赢家。 祝各位朋友早日走上有个人特色的投资之路。
《福布斯》杂志发布了最新的全球富豪榜，沃伦·巴菲特以620亿美元的身价雄踞榜首。世界上做股票最好的人成了世界首富， “ 股神 ” 的思维模式我们也应该借鉴一下。巴菲特所信奉的是价值投资，他告诉投资者：买股票就是买公司，要深入了解你所投资的公司以及所处行业全部的状况，不要去碰你所不熟悉的行业以及公司。对此，弘历概括为一句话：做熟不做生。对于弘历的网员来说，使用 “ 先大后小，先长后短，顺势而为 ” 的原则可以保证你在众多股民中脱颖而出，但如果想要获得更加丰厚的利润，就要做到 “ 做熟不做生 ” 了。通过细致的分析，评估出公司的价值，这就是价值投资所要做的功课。
这里有的人可能会问，价值投资费时费力，如果我所研究的、所熟悉的股票不是热点，不是涨的最好的股票，我不是白白浪费了时间和精力？其实，这是一个误区，在过去的2007年中，几乎每个行业都有涨幅超过500%的股。但是，在股市中，获利超过100%的股民都很少，而与此同时，有些股民平时根本瞧不起翻一翻的股票。事实上，在过去的42年当中，股神巴菲特的平均年收益率是21.4%，而恰恰就是这个在普通股民看来微不足道的收益率，造就了今天的全球首富。这点足以证明，能够抓住你所了解的股票，就已经很了不起了。
巴菲特告诉我们：一个投资者真正应该具备的是评估一家上市公司的能力，而最后的投资业绩并不取决于你能够评估多少家上市公司，而在于你能否清楚的知道自己不能评估哪些公司。可见， “ 做熟不做生 ” 的真谛在于你是否真的了解你手中的股票所代表的公司。只有你熟悉了，了解了，你才有可能长期持有，你才有可能在市场下跌的时候不会惊慌失措，这才是投资的至高境界。
有人说，价值投资的分析方法相对比较繁琐，耗费时间和精力，普通投资者不容易上手。的确，在任何时候，你的付出和你的回报永远是成正比的，且不说股神，机构之所以获利的概率大，是因为他花费了大量的时间和精力进行了细致的分析，最后才能做出正确的投资决策。但是，很幸运，作为弘历的网员，机构的这份花费了大量的时间精力撰写成的一份份机构报告，我们可以通过《机构时代》软件的 “ 机构内参 ” 功能查阅，在阅读机构报告的时候，我们不但可以了解到机构所持的观点?????掌握各个行业的特点，更为重要的是，我们可以透过机构的思路，掌握评估上市公司的方法，从而学习价值投资的思维模式。
弘历的投资理念就好比武功的心法，真正做到不容易，一旦做到不简单。最后笔者提醒网员，弘历是一个股民学校，你们加入弘历最本源的目的是：通过在弘历的学习，最终使自己在投资道路上具备独立思考的能力。只有学会了独立思考，才能成为真正的赢家。 祝各位朋友早日走上有个人特色的投资之路。
李驰：大机会来了
2008-12-31 “大机遇！终生难遇的大机遇！”寒冷的12月，在北京一家酒店咖啡厅，《投资者报》记者采访了深圳同威资产管理有限公司董事总经理李驰，当问到对股市的看法时，他的语调略带激动。
李驰觉得，现在的股市很像日本1974年的情况，暴跌之后新一轮上涨即将开始，两三年后赚大钱的机会又会出现。
“但市场每次都是一样，明明投资机会显现了，大家却都把钱攥得紧紧的；明明股市已经涨得太高，泡沫非常大了，很多人却追着基金经理投钱，而那时我们已经不再买股票了！募资难易程度永远与市场冷热成正比，但恰恰与投资收益成反比。”李驰说。
惊讶之后是惊喜
2008年年中，李驰曾跟同行开玩笑说，他愿意拿出100万元赌一次，股市肯定还会大幅下跌，但股指不会跌穿2000点。
然而金融危机的影响，特别是雷曼兄弟崩塌对全球市场带来的恐慌程度，远远超过了李驰的想像。2008年9月17日，沪指开盘后迅速下挫，跌破2000点关口，收盘于1986.64点。
“事实证明，还是判断错了，我们2008年以来的新一轮投资目前也有浮亏。但我告诉你，当时没有一个人敢和我打赌，其实股市下滑到今天的情况，是谁也想不到的。”
此前，李驰以及他的同威公司发行了该公司第一个二级市场信托私募产品，并在上证指数跌入2500点后开始建仓。
“我当时的感觉是惊讶，太惊讶了！但转念一想，又感到惊喜——股市这样大幅下跌，必然让那些胆小者、看空者远离市场，这时我们的机会就来了。”李驰表示，从绝对估值角度来看，A股已经具备投资价值。
“2000点以下其实是个大空头陷阱，是空头嘴上的胜利。”李驰总结性地戏谑道。
在李驰看来，2009年将是股市筑大底的一年，而最坏的时刻也终将慢慢过去并被逐渐被人们淡忘。
“大约在半年之后，情况一定会更加明朗，比如下一轮牛市的主线到底在哪里，是内需消费主导还是投资主导？谁会最终受益，并能够在下一轮经济周期中从中小型公司成长为大型公司？这都是我们目前正积极研究的课题。”李驰认为，赚大钱的机会将在2009年下半年后陆续明朗。
抱着金融股睡觉
与以往的看法一样，李驰目前仍然比较看好国内的金融股。
“2006~2007年大牛市，最大的受益者肯定是券商，所以我们买了中信证券；同样道理，只要中国经济以后依然能保持平稳发展，银行肯定是很赚钱的行业，所以我早在2005年底就开始投资招商银行，卖出时收益近6倍。”
李驰认为，站在3~5年的角度看，中国的银行通过上市，银行资本金充足之后，抗风险能力大大加强，银行经营模式也有所变化，从单一吃息差的中国式银行，转化为准综合金融服务公司，比如私人银行，信用卡、信托、第三方销售等业务均是未来盈利的增长点。实际上中国经济发展过程中很多“好事”银行都有份分一杯羹，所以如果未来中国经济恢复增长，银行是最稳定的赚钱品种。
对于央行持续大幅降息对银行业的影响，李驰认为，从长期看，降息对银行业反倒是利好消息。“资金往外流，所有资产的价格都会被重估，表面看银行的毛利下降了，但是‘饼’做得更大了，新‘饼’的质量也会更好，这不是好消息吗？”
“当然，你不能看短线，因为傻子都知道2008年的银行股表现很差！”李驰对记者强调：“我的策略就是，抱着金融股睡觉。其他板块的轮动跟我没关系，我们投资股票只投资很少的几只，我信奉的原则一直是"慢即快、少即多"。”
李驰觉得，现在的股市很像日本1974年的情况，暴跌之后新一轮上涨即将开始，两三年后赚大钱的机会又会出现。
“但市场每次都是一样，明明投资机会显现了，大家却都把钱攥得紧紧的；明明股市已经涨得太高，泡沫非常大了，很多人却追着基金经理投钱，而那时我们已经不再买股票了！募资难易程度永远与市场冷热成正比，但恰恰与投资收益成反比。”李驰说。
惊讶之后是惊喜
2008年年中，李驰曾跟同行开玩笑说，他愿意拿出100万元赌一次，股市肯定还会大幅下跌，但股指不会跌穿2000点。
然而金融危机的影响，特别是雷曼兄弟崩塌对全球市场带来的恐慌程度，远远超过了李驰的想像。2008年9月17日，沪指开盘后迅速下挫，跌破2000点关口，收盘于1986.64点。
“事实证明，还是判断错了，我们2008年以来的新一轮投资目前也有浮亏。但我告诉你，当时没有一个人敢和我打赌，其实股市下滑到今天的情况，是谁也想不到的。”
此前，李驰以及他的同威公司发行了该公司第一个二级市场信托私募产品，并在上证指数跌入2500点后开始建仓。
“我当时的感觉是惊讶，太惊讶了！但转念一想，又感到惊喜——股市这样大幅下跌，必然让那些胆小者、看空者远离市场，这时我们的机会就来了。”李驰表示，从绝对估值角度来看，A股已经具备投资价值。
“2000点以下其实是个大空头陷阱，是空头嘴上的胜利。”李驰总结性地戏谑道。
在李驰看来，2009年将是股市筑大底的一年，而最坏的时刻也终将慢慢过去并被逐渐被人们淡忘。
“大约在半年之后，情况一定会更加明朗，比如下一轮牛市的主线到底在哪里，是内需消费主导还是投资主导？谁会最终受益，并能够在下一轮经济周期中从中小型公司成长为大型公司？这都是我们目前正积极研究的课题。”李驰认为，赚大钱的机会将在2009年下半年后陆续明朗。
抱着金融股睡觉
与以往的看法一样，李驰目前仍然比较看好国内的金融股。
“2006~2007年大牛市，最大的受益者肯定是券商，所以我们买了中信证券；同样道理，只要中国经济以后依然能保持平稳发展，银行肯定是很赚钱的行业，所以我早在2005年底就开始投资招商银行，卖出时收益近6倍。”
李驰认为，站在3~5年的角度看，中国的银行通过上市，银行资本金充足之后，抗风险能力大大加强，银行经营模式也有所变化，从单一吃息差的中国式银行，转化为准综合金融服务公司，比如私人银行，信用卡、信托、第三方销售等业务均是未来盈利的增长点。实际上中国经济发展过程中很多“好事”银行都有份分一杯羹，所以如果未来中国经济恢复增长，银行是最稳定的赚钱品种。
对于央行持续大幅降息对银行业的影响，李驰认为，从长期看，降息对银行业反倒是利好消息。“资金往外流，所有资产的价格都会被重估，表面看银行的毛利下降了，但是‘饼’做得更大了，新‘饼’的质量也会更好，这不是好消息吗？”
“当然，你不能看短线，因为傻子都知道2008年的银行股表现很差！”李驰对记者强调：“我的策略就是，抱着金融股睡觉。其他板块的轮动跟我没关系，我们投资股票只投资很少的几只，我信奉的原则一直是"慢即快、少即多"。”
把心灵放牧在清山秀水间
股市没有什么好看的了，播下种子之后剩下的自然就是等待。等待是时间的事情，与人没什么关系了。于是忙里偷闲，到江浙玩了十几天。江浙的灵山秀水让人流连忘返。
第一站是乌镇。风景很美。民居临水而建，白墙黛瓦，门窗的木头已经被岁月染成了黑褐色。乌镇很旧，旧得很有意境，毕竟不是"做旧"的，是岁月留下的自然而然的年轮。曾经到过的很多地方都有"古建筑"，但一看就是二手货，旧得"做作"，好比把一幅刚画好的画儿埋在地下造"霉点儿"，刨出来愣敢说是"吴带当风"；又像是小青年留上两撇胡子.
玩得很尽兴。究其原因是因为游客稀少。本来冬天人就少，又特地选择了别人上班的时候去。如果是在长假里，一定是游人如织。人一多了，风景就没了.
买股票不是一样的道理么？跟着大家排队买股票或者基金，还能有多大便宜呢？几时听说过靠排大队成为亿万富翁的？巴菲特一定深谙旅游之道，他所谓"在别人恐惧的时候贪婪，在别人贪婪的时候恐惧"，其实就是说，人多的地方没什么风景可看，不能去。最近巴菲特赔钱了，很有些人幸灾乐祸，或许念叨股神的失利能够给亏损的凡人找到心理平衡吧。只不过巴菲特的最终结果还没揭晓呢，出水才看两腿泥啊。
最耸人听闻的就是巴菲特的那份对赌协议，如果按照现在的道琼斯指数，他可就赔大发了。可是，对赌的内容是，如果2019年某个时间，道琼斯工业指数低于现在的数值，巴菲特要承担投保者的损失。啊，这老家伙居然用一份稳赚不赔的合同把投保者诓了！除非美国亡国，否则是根本不可能的。不知道为什么有人会买这样一份保险？这不是白白把保费捐给巴菲特了？或者说，自愿让巴菲特征他们的税？可巴菲特不是合众国政府，干吗给他交税呢？他老人家又不缺钱。
或许一些人想通过这份保险，把这回次级贷赔的钱从巴老那儿找补回来？或许，有人要勇敢地投资，就先买上一份对赌合同作为对冲锁定风险？万一，道琼斯指数真的像香港那位波浪大师预测的跌到400点（现在是8800点），自己的投资打了水漂儿，但失之东隅还可以收之桑榆，从巴老的对赌合同上得到补偿？
但再怎么恐慌，您也犯不上去赌"十一年后的太阳不会出来"，对不？怎么看怎么觉得，在未来顶部蜂拥买入的还会是他们。这份保险已经注定，到那个时候他们会这样做。
如果谁对着乌镇，挑剔她的不够现代，不够时尚，无疑是滑稽的；如果谁对着一个百岁老人，挑剔他的养生之道不够科学，那只能说，等他活到90岁再发议论吧。
资本市场里每天都有新花样，概念啊、题材啊，隔一段时间就会有人出来"划时代"、"树里程碑"，告诉你这个世界变了。实际上这世界依然是老样子，而且越是显得日新月异，这世界越是老样子。 就像乌镇一样。
第一站是乌镇。风景很美。民居临水而建，白墙黛瓦，门窗的木头已经被岁月染成了黑褐色。乌镇很旧，旧得很有意境，毕竟不是"做旧"的，是岁月留下的自然而然的年轮。曾经到过的很多地方都有"古建筑"，但一看就是二手货，旧得"做作"，好比把一幅刚画好的画儿埋在地下造"霉点儿"，刨出来愣敢说是"吴带当风"；又像是小青年留上两撇胡子.
玩得很尽兴。究其原因是因为游客稀少。本来冬天人就少，又特地选择了别人上班的时候去。如果是在长假里，一定是游人如织。人一多了，风景就没了.
买股票不是一样的道理么？跟着大家排队买股票或者基金，还能有多大便宜呢？几时听说过靠排大队成为亿万富翁的？巴菲特一定深谙旅游之道，他所谓"在别人恐惧的时候贪婪，在别人贪婪的时候恐惧"，其实就是说，人多的地方没什么风景可看，不能去。最近巴菲特赔钱了，很有些人幸灾乐祸，或许念叨股神的失利能够给亏损的凡人找到心理平衡吧。只不过巴菲特的最终结果还没揭晓呢，出水才看两腿泥啊。
最耸人听闻的就是巴菲特的那份对赌协议，如果按照现在的道琼斯指数，他可就赔大发了。可是，对赌的内容是，如果2019年某个时间，道琼斯工业指数低于现在的数值，巴菲特要承担投保者的损失。啊，这老家伙居然用一份稳赚不赔的合同把投保者诓了！除非美国亡国，否则是根本不可能的。不知道为什么有人会买这样一份保险？这不是白白把保费捐给巴菲特了？或者说，自愿让巴菲特征他们的税？可巴菲特不是合众国政府，干吗给他交税呢？他老人家又不缺钱。
或许一些人想通过这份保险，把这回次级贷赔的钱从巴老那儿找补回来？或许，有人要勇敢地投资，就先买上一份对赌合同作为对冲锁定风险？万一，道琼斯指数真的像香港那位波浪大师预测的跌到400点（现在是8800点），自己的投资打了水漂儿，但失之东隅还可以收之桑榆，从巴老的对赌合同上得到补偿？
但再怎么恐慌，您也犯不上去赌"十一年后的太阳不会出来"，对不？怎么看怎么觉得，在未来顶部蜂拥买入的还会是他们。这份保险已经注定，到那个时候他们会这样做。
如果谁对着乌镇，挑剔她的不够现代，不够时尚，无疑是滑稽的；如果谁对着一个百岁老人，挑剔他的养生之道不够科学，那只能说，等他活到90岁再发议论吧。
资本市场里每天都有新花样，概念啊、题材啊，隔一段时间就会有人出来"划时代"、"树里程碑"，告诉你这个世界变了。实际上这世界依然是老样子，而且越是显得日新月异，这世界越是老样子。 就像乌镇一样。
只有价值投资才是不可战胜的—— 写在2009年
2008年的熊市必将让许多人刻骨铭心，一生难忘，因为这是百年一遇的熊市。但是对于价值投资者来说，我深信其重要的意义将超过净值的缩水或亏损，因为熊市将教会价值投资者在今后的岁月中如何正确地运用价值投资的原则与策略，包括我自己在内。当价值投资者备受质疑、甚至指责时，我深信那绝对不是价值投资的错，而是由于我们在运用价值投资时，在认识上出了差错。但是这种错误并非是致命的，没有什么了不起。
由于认识的不同，价值投资者通常对投资策略的探求需要一个过程，即便沃伦·巴菲特也是如此。实际上巴菲特早期的成功主要来自于套利技巧、短期交易以及清算等方式，对购买价格低于账面价值的公司充满兴趣。但是当巴菲特接受查理·芒格的建议，买入喜诗糖果时，则标志着巴菲特买入优势企业的开始，但是这时距离巴菲特学习本杰明·格雷厄姆的方法已近20年。1988年巴菲特买入可口可乐时，是以其13倍的收益率来交易的，而市场也是以以前收益率的10倍进行交易的，这就意味着巴菲特坚信对可口可乐的交易是在预期该公司未来的收益基础上获得巨大折扣的交易，最后证明他的做法十分正确。在90年代，由于巴菲特有太多的资金可供其支配，寻找优势企业已相当不易，巴菲特更加注重安全性，尤其在90年代后期，由于互联网公司的狂热，巴菲特则进入债券、白银、固定收入证券以及外汇领域的投资，去回避投资互联网公司的巨大风险。所以芒格说，巴菲特的投资技巧在65岁后更是百尺竿头更上一层。芒格又说，如果巴菲特只停留在其早期的认识水平上，这个纪录也就不过如此了。尽管巴菲特每个时期的投资风格有所不同，但是坚持一定程度的安全性始终贯穿了他的投资主线，这一点正是我们所要着重学习的。因此，对照巴菲特的投资历程，我们这些初学者又有什么可羞愧的？重要的是，在经过了艰难曲折之后，在进一步加深对价值投资理解以后，能够提高对价值投资新的认识，在正确的时间做正确的事，复杂的事简单做，尽量少犯错误。
学习价值投资好在哪里？好在可以绝缘于市场的情绪旋风之外，好在可以利用那些基于感情而不基于逻辑分析的投资者的非理性行为。价值投资的精髓是什么？就是把买股票当做买企业，或者说是视股票如同企业，以具有宽大的安全边际的价格买入，不做差价，长期持有，与企业一道成长，从而获得该企业真实的获利能力和经营业绩相对应的收益。这并非很难理解和应用。但是看似简单的问题，由于人性，实际上会变得很复杂。说它复杂，是因为即使是一部分价值投资者一到市场其人性的弱点也暴露无遗，不然，日常中我们所听到的怎么都是“涨了多少”或“跌了多少”，很少听到 “公司的价值是多少，准备多少买，有多大的安全边际 ”。
即使是完全遵循巴菲特的投资方法，也不定保证就能盈利，因为与投资密切相关的还有：如何不被市场的情绪所迷惑，是否独立思考，有没有坚定的信念和勇气等，这一些独立于投资方法、投资策略以及投资技巧的品质又往往决定了投资成败的关键所在。所以，一个人终其一生，是要跟“自己”斗，而不是跟市场斗、跟别人斗，市场可能永远无法击败 “自己”，但是“自己”却常常击败自己。因此当我们说“战胜市场” 这句话时，毋宁说是战胜了“自己”。
一个投资者的品质相当关键，像巴菲特，他很知足，热爱他所做的一切，诸如与人打交道，研读大量的公司年报以及报刊杂志。作为一名职业投资人，既讲原则，又不乏灵活性，同时深具耐心、信心与勇气。他经常列出他的失败和错误，但从不辩解。他乐于自我解嘲，并且客观的赞美他的同事。作为一个伟大的公司研究者，他总是有备而来，满载而归。不投资他不了解的企业或超出他能力范围的企业等等，这些优秀的品质值得我们一生仿效。
因此，在我看来，真正的价值投资者肯定是由特殊材料构成的，彼得·林奇是这样，约翰·聂夫也是这样，成功的投资家都是这样，惟其如此价值投资才是不可战胜的。最后，我真诚地希望在2009年里所有的投资者都能够视熊市为一笔巨大的财富，百尺竿头更上一层。
由于认识的不同，价值投资者通常对投资策略的探求需要一个过程，即便沃伦·巴菲特也是如此。实际上巴菲特早期的成功主要来自于套利技巧、短期交易以及清算等方式，对购买价格低于账面价值的公司充满兴趣。但是当巴菲特接受查理·芒格的建议，买入喜诗糖果时，则标志着巴菲特买入优势企业的开始，但是这时距离巴菲特学习本杰明·格雷厄姆的方法已近20年。1988年巴菲特买入可口可乐时，是以其13倍的收益率来交易的，而市场也是以以前收益率的10倍进行交易的，这就意味着巴菲特坚信对可口可乐的交易是在预期该公司未来的收益基础上获得巨大折扣的交易，最后证明他的做法十分正确。在90年代，由于巴菲特有太多的资金可供其支配，寻找优势企业已相当不易，巴菲特更加注重安全性，尤其在90年代后期，由于互联网公司的狂热，巴菲特则进入债券、白银、固定收入证券以及外汇领域的投资，去回避投资互联网公司的巨大风险。所以芒格说，巴菲特的投资技巧在65岁后更是百尺竿头更上一层。芒格又说，如果巴菲特只停留在其早期的认识水平上，这个纪录也就不过如此了。尽管巴菲特每个时期的投资风格有所不同，但是坚持一定程度的安全性始终贯穿了他的投资主线，这一点正是我们所要着重学习的。因此，对照巴菲特的投资历程，我们这些初学者又有什么可羞愧的？重要的是，在经过了艰难曲折之后，在进一步加深对价值投资理解以后，能够提高对价值投资新的认识，在正确的时间做正确的事，复杂的事简单做，尽量少犯错误。
学习价值投资好在哪里？好在可以绝缘于市场的情绪旋风之外，好在可以利用那些基于感情而不基于逻辑分析的投资者的非理性行为。价值投资的精髓是什么？就是把买股票当做买企业，或者说是视股票如同企业，以具有宽大的安全边际的价格买入，不做差价，长期持有，与企业一道成长，从而获得该企业真实的获利能力和经营业绩相对应的收益。这并非很难理解和应用。但是看似简单的问题，由于人性，实际上会变得很复杂。说它复杂，是因为即使是一部分价值投资者一到市场其人性的弱点也暴露无遗，不然，日常中我们所听到的怎么都是“涨了多少”或“跌了多少”，很少听到 “公司的价值是多少，准备多少买，有多大的安全边际 ”。
即使是完全遵循巴菲特的投资方法，也不定保证就能盈利，因为与投资密切相关的还有：如何不被市场的情绪所迷惑，是否独立思考，有没有坚定的信念和勇气等，这一些独立于投资方法、投资策略以及投资技巧的品质又往往决定了投资成败的关键所在。所以，一个人终其一生，是要跟“自己”斗，而不是跟市场斗、跟别人斗，市场可能永远无法击败 “自己”，但是“自己”却常常击败自己。因此当我们说“战胜市场” 这句话时，毋宁说是战胜了“自己”。
一个投资者的品质相当关键，像巴菲特，他很知足，热爱他所做的一切，诸如与人打交道，研读大量的公司年报以及报刊杂志。作为一名职业投资人，既讲原则，又不乏灵活性，同时深具耐心、信心与勇气。他经常列出他的失败和错误，但从不辩解。他乐于自我解嘲，并且客观的赞美他的同事。作为一个伟大的公司研究者，他总是有备而来，满载而归。不投资他不了解的企业或超出他能力范围的企业等等，这些优秀的品质值得我们一生仿效。
因此，在我看来，真正的价值投资者肯定是由特殊材料构成的，彼得·林奇是这样，约翰·聂夫也是这样，成功的投资家都是这样，惟其如此价值投资才是不可战胜的。最后，我真诚地希望在2009年里所有的投资者都能够视熊市为一笔巨大的财富，百尺竿头更上一层。
通货膨胀的侵蚀力量
1.通货膨胀的侵蚀力量
所有投资人都有一个可怕的敌人，而且太容易低估这个敌人，这个敌人就是通货膨胀。对投资者来说，这个敌人特别危险。
通货膨胀才是个人投资者的大问题，日常或波动性的股价改变虽然惊心动魄，最让投资人担心，却不是个人投资者最大的忧患。通货膨胀的侵蚀力量才真的令人害怕，以5%的通货膨胀率来说，你的钞票的购买力在不到15年内，就会少掉一半，在随后的5年内，又回再少掉一半。通货膨胀如果是7%，只要经过21年，也就是从61岁“提早”退休，到82岁为止，你的钞票购买力就会降到只有目前的1/4。
然而82岁却是日渐常见的平均寿命。这点显然是严重的问题，特别是个人已经退休，没有办法再增加资本，抵消通货膨胀对购买力可怕的侵蚀。
下表列出通货膨胀率升高对购买力的损害。
通货膨胀率 把你的钞票减半所需要的时间
2% 36
3% 24
4% 18
5% 14
6% 12
7% 11
2.投资人最大的敌人
我们大部分人应该比较熟悉下面这个故事：如果你在20世纪开始时，投资100美元在美国的普通股上，这笔投资到今天值多少钱？立刻告诉你答案，是 733383美元！哇，100美元变成了70多万美元！但是，别高兴得太早！我们要问几个有助于澄清事实的问题。
问题：这95年的收益中，有多少是最近20年的利益？
答案：大部分是；事实上，到1975年为止，这笔钱只增加到7.5万美元，其余64.3万美元是最后20年股票市场勃兴才得到的。
问题：表面看来让人惊奇的收益中，有多少其实只是通货膨胀造成的“膨胀”效果？
答案：大部分都是：将近一个世纪的真正获利只略超过4万美元，但就100美元来说，这确实也是庞大的利益，但是，同样确实的是，这样只占名目收益733383美元的6%而已。
重点不是复利多么善于增加实质的财富，重点是通货膨胀会无情的摧毁财富的购买力，速度几乎和经济成长创造财富的速度一样快。只有实质的净获利才能花用，因此要小心一些宣传和广告，这些东西用未来赚到惊人“财富”的虚幻承诺，欺骗投资人，却不解释通货膨胀同时会造成极为不利的影响。
通货膨胀冷酷无情的摧毁你的资本。在1960年用100美元可以买到的东西，到1995年要花上500美元。换句话说，只不过在30年里，通货膨胀使每1美元的价值减损了80%，以复利计算，每年减损的比率是4.8%。
通货膨胀磨损和侵蚀的力量是投资人最大的敌人，这点很清楚、很确定。只要经过20年，如1美元的购买力就会萎缩成0.35美元。
对于理性的长期投资人而言，更重要的是知道并且记住从60年代末期到80年代初期，经过通货膨胀调整后，未加权的股市大约暴跌了80% , 因此，对投资人来说，70年代其实比30年代还糟糕！
研究扣除通货膨胀因素后的道琼斯工业股价指数，或许可以看出通货膨胀对投资的真正伤害，请特别注意：
从1977年到1982年，经过通货膨胀调整的道琼斯工业股价指数从270跌到100，五年里跌掉了63%。
到1993年，道琼斯工业股价指数经过通货膨胀调整后，等于1928年的水准，经历了65年之久，才能损益两平，的确是漫长之至的等待。
投资人最好研究投资历史（小心50年代，投资人到了1950年，终于摆脱经济大萧条和第二次世界大战的影响，重新认定股票和债券预期报酬率之间的基本关系）。历史研究得愈多愈好，因为你愈清楚证券市场过去的行为，愈能了解市场的真正本质和未来的行为如何，有了这种了解，我们就能理性的跟看来似乎不理性的市场共存，至少我们不会被短期市场波动的花招和骗术所欺，动摇了对长期策略的信心。
所有投资人都有一个可怕的敌人，而且太容易低估这个敌人，这个敌人就是通货膨胀。对投资者来说，这个敌人特别危险。
通货膨胀才是个人投资者的大问题，日常或波动性的股价改变虽然惊心动魄，最让投资人担心，却不是个人投资者最大的忧患。通货膨胀的侵蚀力量才真的令人害怕，以5%的通货膨胀率来说，你的钞票的购买力在不到15年内，就会少掉一半，在随后的5年内，又回再少掉一半。通货膨胀如果是7%，只要经过21年，也就是从61岁“提早”退休，到82岁为止，你的钞票购买力就会降到只有目前的1/4。
然而82岁却是日渐常见的平均寿命。这点显然是严重的问题，特别是个人已经退休，没有办法再增加资本，抵消通货膨胀对购买力可怕的侵蚀。
下表列出通货膨胀率升高对购买力的损害。
通货膨胀率 把你的钞票减半所需要的时间
2% 36
3% 24
4% 18
5% 14
6% 12
7% 11
2.投资人最大的敌人
我们大部分人应该比较熟悉下面这个故事：如果你在20世纪开始时，投资100美元在美国的普通股上，这笔投资到今天值多少钱？立刻告诉你答案，是 733383美元！哇，100美元变成了70多万美元！但是，别高兴得太早！我们要问几个有助于澄清事实的问题。
问题：这95年的收益中，有多少是最近20年的利益？
答案：大部分是；事实上，到1975年为止，这笔钱只增加到7.5万美元，其余64.3万美元是最后20年股票市场勃兴才得到的。
问题：表面看来让人惊奇的收益中，有多少其实只是通货膨胀造成的“膨胀”效果？
答案：大部分都是：将近一个世纪的真正获利只略超过4万美元，但就100美元来说，这确实也是庞大的利益，但是，同样确实的是，这样只占名目收益733383美元的6%而已。
重点不是复利多么善于增加实质的财富，重点是通货膨胀会无情的摧毁财富的购买力，速度几乎和经济成长创造财富的速度一样快。只有实质的净获利才能花用，因此要小心一些宣传和广告，这些东西用未来赚到惊人“财富”的虚幻承诺，欺骗投资人，却不解释通货膨胀同时会造成极为不利的影响。
通货膨胀冷酷无情的摧毁你的资本。在1960年用100美元可以买到的东西，到1995年要花上500美元。换句话说，只不过在30年里，通货膨胀使每1美元的价值减损了80%，以复利计算，每年减损的比率是4.8%。
通货膨胀磨损和侵蚀的力量是投资人最大的敌人，这点很清楚、很确定。只要经过20年，如1美元的购买力就会萎缩成0.35美元。
对于理性的长期投资人而言，更重要的是知道并且记住从60年代末期到80年代初期，经过通货膨胀调整后，未加权的股市大约暴跌了80% , 因此，对投资人来说，70年代其实比30年代还糟糕！
研究扣除通货膨胀因素后的道琼斯工业股价指数，或许可以看出通货膨胀对投资的真正伤害，请特别注意：
从1977年到1982年，经过通货膨胀调整的道琼斯工业股价指数从270跌到100，五年里跌掉了63%。
到1993年，道琼斯工业股价指数经过通货膨胀调整后，等于1928年的水准，经历了65年之久，才能损益两平，的确是漫长之至的等待。
投资人最好研究投资历史（小心50年代，投资人到了1950年，终于摆脱经济大萧条和第二次世界大战的影响，重新认定股票和债券预期报酬率之间的基本关系）。历史研究得愈多愈好，因为你愈清楚证券市场过去的行为，愈能了解市场的真正本质和未来的行为如何，有了这种了解，我们就能理性的跟看来似乎不理性的市场共存，至少我们不会被短期市场波动的花招和骗术所欺，动摇了对长期策略的信心。
“不劳而获”赚钱法
每一个人，在年青时，都应有“防老”意识。
最好是一开始工作时，就作好“防老”规划。
防老规划不影响生活素质
“防老”规划，必须以不影响青、中年时期的生活素质为原则。
以牺牲青、中年时期的生活素质，换取晚年生活的保障，不值得。
现在过得不好，将来过得再好，又有什么意义？
晚年要过好日子，其实，不必付出现在过苦日子的代价。
先“苦”后“甜”是落后的想法。
只要有恒心，方向正确，“防老”可以很轻松。
请注意“恒心”和“方向”。
“恒心”是化梦想为现实的纪律精神。
“方向”是化梦想为现实的道路。
有恒心，方向错误，事倍功半。
有恒心，方向正确，事半功倍。
走错方向，空有恒心，难以达到目的地——“财务独立”。
有恒心，方向正确，走起来轻松愉快，晚年生活丰富多彩。
防老规划的目标是“财务独立”。
实现“财务独立”只能智取，不能力併。
“力併”是拼命节省，拼命储蓄。
“智取”是“不劳而获”赚钱法。
请不要误会，以为我反对储蓄。
我只是反对通过拼命节省过苦哈哈日子的储蓄方式。
储蓄是累积原始资本的必须步骤。
请你由工作时开始，每个月从你的薪金中拨出百份之二十，存入银行户口，只化掉剩下的百份之八十。
先储蓄，再化钱，绝不妥协。
储蓄到一个数目，就投资。
这个“数目”，可大可小。
我的原则是，银行中只能存有足够三个月生活费的钱，超过此数必须拿去投资。
切勿将大笔的钱，长期存放银行。
最近跟一名退休银行家喝拉茶聊天。
他对我说：“长期把大笔款项存在银行中，笨！”
此话出自退休银行家之口，实不寻常。
问题是“投资什么？”。
投资于使你“不劳而获”的项目。
是的，要懂得“不劳而获”，才能做到“财务独立”。
假如你在三十年前，在吉隆坡的孟沙区，以一万令吉，买进一间单层排屋，现在价值四十万令吉，你赚了三十九万令吉。
你付出了多少“劳”力，来赚这三十九万令吉？
没有，你根本没有付出“劳”力。
这就叫“不劳而获”赚钱法。
是谁替你赚这三十九万令吉？
答案是“通货膨胀”。
一提到通货膨胀，大家都谈虎色变。
通胀猛于虎也！
但是，通胀却是投资的好朋友。
在通胀之下，你“不劳而获”，轻轻松松赚个盘满钵满。
受苦的是下层阶级。
投资于房地产如此，投资于股票亦然。
一万股云顶现值数百万
假如你在三十多年前，以一万多令吉买进一万股云顶，从来不卖，现在价值数百万令吉。
这数百万令吉的进账，是“不劳而获”的。
这“不劳而获”，是来自云顶盈利的持续成长。
“成长”是关键所在。
现在你对“防老”规划，应该有一个清楚的概念了。
第一、在不影响生活素质下，定期储蓄。
第二、储蓄到一个数目（由数百至数千令吉），立刻投资，股票是一个很好的对象，因为可大可小。
第三、只投资于有成长潜能的项目。
第四、长期持有。
第五、切勿停留在储蓄阶段。
不懂得什么项目（股票）有成长潜能？
马上着手研究吧。
钱是要靠你自己去赚的。
别人没有替你赚钱的义务。
你的人生，由你自己负责。
最好是一开始工作时，就作好“防老”规划。
防老规划不影响生活素质
“防老”规划，必须以不影响青、中年时期的生活素质为原则。
以牺牲青、中年时期的生活素质，换取晚年生活的保障，不值得。
现在过得不好，将来过得再好，又有什么意义？
晚年要过好日子，其实，不必付出现在过苦日子的代价。
先“苦”后“甜”是落后的想法。
只要有恒心，方向正确，“防老”可以很轻松。
请注意“恒心”和“方向”。
“恒心”是化梦想为现实的纪律精神。
“方向”是化梦想为现实的道路。
有恒心，方向错误，事倍功半。
有恒心，方向正确，事半功倍。
走错方向，空有恒心，难以达到目的地——“财务独立”。
有恒心，方向正确，走起来轻松愉快，晚年生活丰富多彩。
防老规划的目标是“财务独立”。
实现“财务独立”只能智取，不能力併。
“力併”是拼命节省，拼命储蓄。
“智取”是“不劳而获”赚钱法。
请不要误会，以为我反对储蓄。
我只是反对通过拼命节省过苦哈哈日子的储蓄方式。
储蓄是累积原始资本的必须步骤。
请你由工作时开始，每个月从你的薪金中拨出百份之二十，存入银行户口，只化掉剩下的百份之八十。
先储蓄，再化钱，绝不妥协。
储蓄到一个数目，就投资。
这个“数目”，可大可小。
我的原则是，银行中只能存有足够三个月生活费的钱，超过此数必须拿去投资。
切勿将大笔的钱，长期存放银行。
最近跟一名退休银行家喝拉茶聊天。
他对我说：“长期把大笔款项存在银行中，笨！”
此话出自退休银行家之口，实不寻常。
问题是“投资什么？”。
投资于使你“不劳而获”的项目。
是的，要懂得“不劳而获”，才能做到“财务独立”。
假如你在三十年前，在吉隆坡的孟沙区，以一万令吉，买进一间单层排屋，现在价值四十万令吉，你赚了三十九万令吉。
你付出了多少“劳”力，来赚这三十九万令吉？
没有，你根本没有付出“劳”力。
这就叫“不劳而获”赚钱法。
是谁替你赚这三十九万令吉？
答案是“通货膨胀”。
一提到通货膨胀，大家都谈虎色变。
通胀猛于虎也！
但是，通胀却是投资的好朋友。
在通胀之下，你“不劳而获”，轻轻松松赚个盘满钵满。
受苦的是下层阶级。
投资于房地产如此，投资于股票亦然。
一万股云顶现值数百万
假如你在三十多年前，以一万多令吉买进一万股云顶，从来不卖，现在价值数百万令吉。
这数百万令吉的进账，是“不劳而获”的。
这“不劳而获”，是来自云顶盈利的持续成长。
“成长”是关键所在。
现在你对“防老”规划，应该有一个清楚的概念了。
第一、在不影响生活素质下，定期储蓄。
第二、储蓄到一个数目（由数百至数千令吉），立刻投资，股票是一个很好的对象，因为可大可小。
第三、只投资于有成长潜能的项目。
第四、长期持有。
第五、切勿停留在储蓄阶段。
不懂得什么项目（股票）有成长潜能？
马上着手研究吧。
钱是要靠你自己去赚的。
别人没有替你赚钱的义务。
你的人生，由你自己负责。
曹仁超领读股市30年通史：攻守进退皆有据
1950-1980年，香港第一个30年。
1980-2008年，香港第二个30年。
1978-2008年，中国内地改革开放30年。
这三段充满历史韵味的经济大周期中所发生的一切，能告诉我们怎样的前行路标？
2008年12月24日，是西方重要节日圣诞节的前夕。这一天下午3∶00，我们如约来到 曹仁超先生位于香港北角的办公室。在 曹先生颇富传奇性的家族迁徙故事，以及他过去四十多年跌宕起伏的投资生涯中，深深地刻印着内地与香港经济变迁的一步步。
我们关心的是，下一个30年，中国香港和内地经济将会如何演变？
与经济学家不同的是， 曹先生把自己定位为股市分析员，并且对市场充满敬畏。他对宏观经济的分析别具一格：从股市看经济。
因此，这一次以经济走向为重点的采访，是 从曹先生预先准备好的股市图表开始的：道琼斯工业指数、日经225指数、台湾加权指数、香港恒生指数、沪深300指数。
这些指数的背后有着怎样的经济寓言？
曹先生分析认为，在过去的两个月内，上述市场指数告诉我们，股市的底部或许已经筑成。问题是，经济呢？
“ 我不是Fortune Teller（算命），我是分析员， ”曹先生用了整整三个小时，向我们解话股市与经济。
2009年2-8月：最糟的时刻
现在的情况是，股票开始好，经济跌下去，所以很多人是不相信股票会好的，现在到明年的2-8月，股市是涨不起来也跌不下去
《21世纪》：应该怎样有效看待股市与经济之间的关系？每个经济体的市场与它的宏观经济之间，关联如何？
曹仁超：举个例子，中国台湾股市跟全世界是脱节的。中国台湾过去十年是乱七八糟的，它的经济跟全世界是关系不大的，台湾的经济最主要是电子，比如笔记本电脑等，所以台湾股票市场只是反映电子行业的好和坏，跟整个台湾经济没有太大关系，它最主要反映电子行业的高高低低。
香港恒生指数（原来）是反映香港的。但是大约从1990年开始，内地的红筹股越来越多，1997年开始H股也开始多起来，所以今天的恒生指数，也不全是反映香港的经济，部分是反映内地经济。
台湾金融的发展可以说是很落后的，跟香港不同。香港因为有内地的股票来香港上市，所以香港股票市场市值最高峰时，是香港GDP的4倍，台湾大约是1倍多点，内地最高时是刚到1倍，现在估计是20%-25%，这样的关系可以看出股票市场的开放不开放。
美国市场的股市市值大约是2倍，基本可以作为成熟市场的参考，为什么要参考美国的市场呢？因为股票市场怎么才叫成熟呢？一般的指标是，（股票市场）市值是GDP的200%，美国大部分时间是两倍。从这个来看，中国内地还是一个不成熟的市场。
而中国香港和新加坡的资本市场跟GDP的关系是不大的，因为开放，全球的股票可以来香港挂牌，所以，香港GDP和资本市场的关系是不大的。
《21世纪》：香港股票市值是GDP的4倍，是否意味着香港股市有过度发展的倾向？
曹仁超：也不能这么说，因为投资香港的40%不是香港人，外国人持有很多香港的股票。
现在，投资香港股票的理由有三个。第一个是看好香港，第二个是看好内地，因为看好中国内地但没办法直接投资内地，大家知道，内地B股的交易量是很小的，所以对很多海外投资者来说，看好内地的唯一方法，就是投资香港，所以投资中国香港不一定是看好香港，还可能是看好中国内地。
第三个理由是东南亚市场，因为它们的流动性不够，市场太小，如果你要去买100亿的股票，一天是做不完的，怎么办呢？一般可以在香港买80亿，这对香港市场的影响不大，在东南亚市场买20亿，所以，一般亚洲市场涨的时候，香港就涨，亚洲市场跌的时候，香港就跌，而且，如果要在东南亚市场分批买的话，可以用香港对冲东南亚市场的涨涨跌跌。
所以投资香港有三类人，第一是看好中国香港，第二类是看好或看坏中国内地的，第三类是看好或看坏东南亚的，所以香港的股票市场大约反映了三种看法。这在全世界都是没有的，只有香港才是，美国也不是，你不会因为看好中国内地而去投资美国，不会因为看好加拿大而投资美国，但看好中国内地，就只能通过香港，因为内地市场还不是全面开放。
香港经纪商有三种，大经纪、中型经纪、小经纪，小经纪是做香港生意的，很可怜的，只占市场份额的11%，只有30%的交易量是香港人做的，另外70%不是香港人做的，比如，我的买卖就是经过大经纪做的。
《21世纪》：那如何根据股市来看内地的宏观经济呢？
曹仁超：经济学家通常会做很多统计之后，（根据统计）去看经济问题，而我们，则是通过股票市场去看经济的。
经济学家有多少人？1个。股票市场有多少人？1亿人。1个人说的对还是1亿个人看的对？如果你问我的话，我相信1亿个人的想法是对的，他们的想法是股票市场告诉你的。
从H股和A股来看，它们之间的价钱是不同的。为什么？因为H股是反映外国人怎么看中国内地，而A股是反映内地人怎么看内地。
两者差别之处在于，外国投资者是成熟投资者，而国内大部分是新的投资者，新投资者的问题是，很容易看得太好或者太坏，所以要用H和A之间的差，来看内地投资者是不是太乐观或者太悲观。
2007年9月到10月，这个差是最大的，说明国内投资者对国内经济的看法是太乐观了。由此可以看到，内地股票在2007年人家说是泡沫化，泡沫有多大？如果没有港股直通车，港股是2万点，一说（开通）直通车，港股就冲上了32000点。最低程度可以这样看，2007年，内地人买股票多付了60%的钱。结果，2007年10月，内地股票跌下来，说明又看得太淡了。
现在，A-H差价越来越少了，不过即使现在，内地人对内地股票看的还是好，只是没有以前那么好了。
《21世纪》：从现在的股市情况，我们明年的宏观经济大概会出现怎样的格局？
曹仁超：股市是跑在经济前面3-9个月，究竟是几个月？不知道。现在股市已经告诉你，最差是今年11月，所以预计中国经济最差的时间是明年2-8月。
当然，现在我相信它是底，但世界没有绝对的，只能说有75%以上的可能是这样，即内地经济在明年2-8月最差，这个可以用GDP增长率来衡量，也就是说，最差的GDP数据会出现在2009年的第二季或者是第三季，但明年第四季，一定是好起来了。
现在的情况是，股票开始好，经济跌下去，所以很多人是不相信股票会好的，现在到明年的2-8月，股市是涨不起来也跌不下去，所以我们叫明年2-8月为整固期。而经济呢，不是The worse is over，是the worse is coming，最坏的不是要过去了，而是要来了，但是我已经准备好你来了。
从投资角度来看，明年2-8月买股票的人，我们称他为strong hands，拿住股票就不放，去年10月买股票的，是weak hands，很弱的，这些人拿着股票，你不要吓唬他，一吓唬就全跑了。
股市就是将财富重新分配，股市不是大家赚钞票，而是聪明人赚笨人的钞票，the winner take all，赢的人全部赢光。所以，应该是1个人赢100个。赢多少？100倍。基本上一个lifecycle完了之后，聪明人可以赚到50倍，笨的人，是亏损60%。通常都是这样的。
1950-1980：香港工业化路标
香港为什么这么多有钱的人？因为全世界都没有香港人这么好的运气，有 “ 第二次机会 ” 。
《21世纪》：一个lifecycle指的就是一个经济周期吗？那你觉得明年的第四季是另一个周期的开始吗？
曹仁超：一个lifecycle通常是9-12年，从衰退到繁荣再到衰退。2010年将会开始另一个新的经济周期，不是2009年，这是参考香港的lifecycle。这就讲到你们的改革开放三十周年了。
香港差不多1949年，很多难民跑来香港，香港很穷，因为1945年，香港人口差不多是75万，到1950年差不多是200万，住的地方也没有，吃的也没有，很穷，怎么办呢？开工厂啊。当时工厂工人赚多少钱呢？1块钱一天。
1950年香港人比内地人还穷！我舅舅1950年在上海赚36块一个月，我爹爹跑到香港赚27块一个月，比内地穷，所以我舅舅就说，你到香港干什么？！
问题是，内地从1950年到1979年都是赚36块钱一个月，香港1950年是27块；但是到1978年我们赚多少？1500块，内地还是36块。所以到1978年的时候，内地就觉得香港好了，就是因为我们赚得多，所以邓小平说要开始改革开放。所谓改革开放，假设没有香港，内地可能当时不知道怎么改革、怎么开放。
香港人从1950年到1980年30年，不断开工厂，赚外国人的钞票，从1978年改革开放，香港人开始到内地，用内地的工人赚外国人的钱，从1978-2007年过去30年内地所做的一切，跟1950-1980年的香港做的完全一样。
很多地方都是一样的。比如，我们刚到香港的时候，一天赚一块钱，工资很便宜，土地五毛钱一眨材料很多；1979、1980年内地也是这样嘛，香港人回去开工厂，给内地工人的工资是120块一个月，内地工人当时很开心啊！这跟香港当年完全一样，工人赚不到钱，一下子从36块涨到120块，当然很高兴。
所以我看的话，1978年内地刚刚开放，1979年邓小平去了美国，1980年，美国给了中国最惠国待遇（MFN），之后，中国内地的东西就可以出口到美国了，之前不可以的。
有了这个MFN的地位，加上香港人在香港30年的经验，进到内地再做一次，所以说，香港人是全世界运气最好的，中国台湾有一次经济机会，美国有一次机会，中国香港则有两次机会！
《21世纪》：怎么说？
曹仁超：香港的第一次机会是，1950-1980年的30年，赚了钱。之后怎么办？于是就来了第二次机会。
第二次机会是内地给我们的。在香港开工厂的人，他在1950年的时候有多少钱？只有5万，到1980年，他的资本变成了5000万。在外国，你有5000万港币就差不多了，没有机会了。但是，这时候，内地给了我们香港人第二次机会，就是把这5000万带到内地开工厂，到2007年，30年变成多少钞票？50亿。30年变100倍。
所以香港为什么这么多有钱的人？因为全世界都没有香港人这么好的运气，有第二次机会。
1980-2008：香港金融业起飞
1984年7月后，全球的资金又都来到香港，香港聚集了很多别人的钱，于是，香港人开始用别人的钱来赚钱。
《21世纪》：如果没有内地这30年的机会，香港的经济就不能发展吗？
曹仁超：从1980-2008年，过去30年，你在香港开工厂会怎么样？亏本。现在在香港请一个工人要多少钱？每月6500块。土地多少一眨10万。怎么做工厂？根本没有办法做。所以只有一条路，亏本。
1980年到2008年，过去香港30年经历的事情，从2007年开始在内地出现了！开工厂的人再也赚不到钱了，因为过去30年，（内地的）工资给你弄高了，环境弄坏了，原材料给你炒贵了，所以2007年开工厂的人，70%要亏本，这个不是政府告诉你的，是市场告诉你的。现在你要开工厂赚钱，去哪里？去印度啊，印尼啊，柬埔寨啊，这些东南亚地方，内地已经不欢迎你了，不是政府不欢迎你，是市场不欢迎你了！
所以将来30年，内地开工厂的人会很辛苦，这是我们过去30年的经验告诉你的。从2007年开始，内地的工厂就开始要从劳动力密集型转变为资本密集型，现在全都要机械化，但开工厂赚钱还是很辛苦的，不信你去台湾看看，去日本看看，去韩国看看，它们工厂还在赚钱，但是赚得很辛苦。
《21世纪》：那么在经历过1950-1980年的工业发展之后，香港本地发生了什么？
曹仁超：1980年，香港发生什么事情？工厂全部拆光，全都跑到内地了。所以香港1981-1984年的四年，是非常痛苦的，因为工厂没了，饭没得吃。但是经过这4年，香港发展出什么呢？金融。自此之后，金融业开始上来了，服务业开始上来了，房地产开始上来了。
所以说，1981年到1984年7月，是中国香港最痛苦的4年。当中国与英国关于香港问题的谈判在1984年结束之后，全世界都知道香港要回归，但资本主义保持50年不变，所以从7月开始，全球的资金又都来到香港，香港聚集了很多别人的钱，于是，香港人开始用别人的钱来赚钱，我们叫OPM，也就是Other People's Money。
比如说，香港人从外面拿100亿，给外国人5%的回报率，5亿一年，这些钱在国外很难拿到这么高的回报的，然后我们拿着这100亿到内地投资，赚了20亿，给外国人5亿之后，我们还剩15亿，多好。
《21世纪》：为什么外国人自己不去内地投资而要取道香港？
曹仁超：因为他们不了解中国内地嘛，而我们了解。他们可能连内地人是不是还留着长辫子都不知道！
这就是为什么香港会有这么多外国人的钱，我们就（用这些钱）赚差价，赚了钱之后，香港人就开始买房子、消费，所以房地产和消费就好了，所以说，1984-2007年带动香港经济的是什么？是金融。
比如，很多大型国企到香港上市，如果募集资金1000亿，收2%的佣金就赚2亿，虽然这些大的IPO很多是外资大行做的，但是它在香港也要租写字楼啊，也要请香港人啊，所以最后外国人分了1亿，香港人分1亿。
你想想，几十个人花三四个月的时间赚1亿，你要开工厂的话，多久才能赚1亿？香港人做来做去不就做这个生意嘛！
因为金融的钱容易赚，所以香港自1980年开始从工业转到金融业，过去30年正好是香港金融业的发展周期。
2008后财富聚集地： 上海、北京、深圳
《21世纪》：下一步会怎么样？内地也会复制香港这段历史吗？
曹仁超：是的，中国香港从1984年开始发生的事情，将来要在中国内地再来一次！所以我明年就去上海了，因为机会来了（笑）。将来的上海会跟香港完全一样。
中国内地2007年10月-2010年10月，应该是最低潮的时期，将来涨上去的是金融，不是工业。未来什么行业最赚钱？金融、房地产、服务业（就是开百货公司、酒店、旅游），将来30年赚大钱的再不是工业家了，肯定是金融、房地产这行业。所以这三年是内地经济最痛苦的时候，工业慢慢下去，服务业还没有上来，青黄不接。
从2010年开始，内地会复制香港过去30年的路子，但持续多久很难说，因为香港地方小，上去的时候快，内地应该没有这么快，但是可能持续时间长。
《21世纪》：可能内地和香港有所不同，内地人口这么多，有些需求是必须的，比如对工业品的需求，以前香港没有工业品可以到内地去要，但今后内地没有工业的话，到哪里去要？
曹仁超：讲得很好，今天中国香港没有工业了，但美国还有工业，日本还有工业，可是美国的工业不在纽约，日本工业不在东京，英国工业不在伦敦，所以将来内地的工业在哪里？越退越远，肯定不在深圳、北京、上海。
深圳、北京、上海，30年后会跟现在的香港一模一样，房地产价格跟香港差不多，收入也差不多，平均28000美元/年。30年后，深圳、北京、上海，普通的职员大概会赚2万人民币/月，高职位10万/月，到这个水平之后就上不去了。香港1997年的时候到了这个水平，过去10年都上不去了，日本从1990年到现在18年了，还是上不去，还是因为年收入到20000美元之后就很难上去了，日本维持32000美元/年维持了18年，香港从1997-2007年的10年也基本停留在28000美元/年，美国是33000美元/年。
当然，小的国家很难算，大的国家一般都是年收入到2-3万美元之后就很难上去了，现在内地平均是2500美元/年，未来30年中国内地有机会增加10倍。
所以，你现在买银行的股票，30年之后至少赚10倍，因为内地银行的业绩都比较平均，不会跑赢GDP太多，也不会落后太多，而房地产公司参差不齐，比较难说。
《21世纪》：30年赚10倍，好辛苦啊！
曹仁超：如果你够聪明的话，这30年上落3次，每次上去的时候卖掉，下来的时候买入，那你就有3次机会，赚100倍，
2009年的消息是很坏的，但是投资股票有时要sell on good news, buy on bad news（好消息出货，坏消息入货）。但究竟什么时候会好起来，我不知道，我不是算命的，我是分析员，所以明年3月开始，我会去上海看看，未来的机会不在香港，香港已经很老了。
就好比嫁人要嫁个年轻的聪明的嘛，不要嫁个80岁的老头，万一他活到96岁，你天天对着个老头，有钱也没有用，何况最怕他现在才60岁！所以应该嫁个30岁的刚开始会赚钱的内地人，香港人现在差不多45岁，稳重一点，美国人现在是65岁，有点老了。
嫁内地人还有一个好处，因为内地这个30岁的年轻人，刚刚跌了一跤，已经不再是2007年的内地人，那时候是财大气粗，现在已经more humble，刚刚开始知道什么叫 “谦卑”，这样的男人不错。
1980-2008年，香港第二个30年。
1978-2008年，中国内地改革开放30年。
这三段充满历史韵味的经济大周期中所发生的一切，能告诉我们怎样的前行路标？
2008年12月24日，是西方重要节日圣诞节的前夕。这一天下午3∶00，我们如约来到 曹仁超先生位于香港北角的办公室。在 曹先生颇富传奇性的家族迁徙故事，以及他过去四十多年跌宕起伏的投资生涯中，深深地刻印着内地与香港经济变迁的一步步。
我们关心的是，下一个30年，中国香港和内地经济将会如何演变？
与经济学家不同的是， 曹先生把自己定位为股市分析员，并且对市场充满敬畏。他对宏观经济的分析别具一格：从股市看经济。
因此，这一次以经济走向为重点的采访，是 从曹先生预先准备好的股市图表开始的：道琼斯工业指数、日经225指数、台湾加权指数、香港恒生指数、沪深300指数。
这些指数的背后有着怎样的经济寓言？
曹先生分析认为，在过去的两个月内，上述市场指数告诉我们，股市的底部或许已经筑成。问题是，经济呢？
“ 我不是Fortune Teller（算命），我是分析员， ”曹先生用了整整三个小时，向我们解话股市与经济。
2009年2-8月：最糟的时刻
现在的情况是，股票开始好，经济跌下去，所以很多人是不相信股票会好的，现在到明年的2-8月，股市是涨不起来也跌不下去
《21世纪》：应该怎样有效看待股市与经济之间的关系？每个经济体的市场与它的宏观经济之间，关联如何？
曹仁超：举个例子，中国台湾股市跟全世界是脱节的。中国台湾过去十年是乱七八糟的，它的经济跟全世界是关系不大的，台湾的经济最主要是电子，比如笔记本电脑等，所以台湾股票市场只是反映电子行业的好和坏，跟整个台湾经济没有太大关系，它最主要反映电子行业的高高低低。
香港恒生指数（原来）是反映香港的。但是大约从1990年开始，内地的红筹股越来越多，1997年开始H股也开始多起来，所以今天的恒生指数，也不全是反映香港的经济，部分是反映内地经济。
台湾金融的发展可以说是很落后的，跟香港不同。香港因为有内地的股票来香港上市，所以香港股票市场市值最高峰时，是香港GDP的4倍，台湾大约是1倍多点，内地最高时是刚到1倍，现在估计是20%-25%，这样的关系可以看出股票市场的开放不开放。
美国市场的股市市值大约是2倍，基本可以作为成熟市场的参考，为什么要参考美国的市场呢？因为股票市场怎么才叫成熟呢？一般的指标是，（股票市场）市值是GDP的200%，美国大部分时间是两倍。从这个来看，中国内地还是一个不成熟的市场。
而中国香港和新加坡的资本市场跟GDP的关系是不大的，因为开放，全球的股票可以来香港挂牌，所以，香港GDP和资本市场的关系是不大的。
《21世纪》：香港股票市值是GDP的4倍，是否意味着香港股市有过度发展的倾向？
曹仁超：也不能这么说，因为投资香港的40%不是香港人，外国人持有很多香港的股票。
现在，投资香港股票的理由有三个。第一个是看好香港，第二个是看好内地，因为看好中国内地但没办法直接投资内地，大家知道，内地B股的交易量是很小的，所以对很多海外投资者来说，看好内地的唯一方法，就是投资香港，所以投资中国香港不一定是看好香港，还可能是看好中国内地。
第三个理由是东南亚市场，因为它们的流动性不够，市场太小，如果你要去买100亿的股票，一天是做不完的，怎么办呢？一般可以在香港买80亿，这对香港市场的影响不大，在东南亚市场买20亿，所以，一般亚洲市场涨的时候，香港就涨，亚洲市场跌的时候，香港就跌，而且，如果要在东南亚市场分批买的话，可以用香港对冲东南亚市场的涨涨跌跌。
所以投资香港有三类人，第一是看好中国香港，第二类是看好或看坏中国内地的，第三类是看好或看坏东南亚的，所以香港的股票市场大约反映了三种看法。这在全世界都是没有的，只有香港才是，美国也不是，你不会因为看好中国内地而去投资美国，不会因为看好加拿大而投资美国，但看好中国内地，就只能通过香港，因为内地市场还不是全面开放。
香港经纪商有三种，大经纪、中型经纪、小经纪，小经纪是做香港生意的，很可怜的，只占市场份额的11%，只有30%的交易量是香港人做的，另外70%不是香港人做的，比如，我的买卖就是经过大经纪做的。
《21世纪》：那如何根据股市来看内地的宏观经济呢？
曹仁超：经济学家通常会做很多统计之后，（根据统计）去看经济问题，而我们，则是通过股票市场去看经济的。
经济学家有多少人？1个。股票市场有多少人？1亿人。1个人说的对还是1亿个人看的对？如果你问我的话，我相信1亿个人的想法是对的，他们的想法是股票市场告诉你的。
从H股和A股来看，它们之间的价钱是不同的。为什么？因为H股是反映外国人怎么看中国内地，而A股是反映内地人怎么看内地。
两者差别之处在于，外国投资者是成熟投资者，而国内大部分是新的投资者，新投资者的问题是，很容易看得太好或者太坏，所以要用H和A之间的差，来看内地投资者是不是太乐观或者太悲观。
2007年9月到10月，这个差是最大的，说明国内投资者对国内经济的看法是太乐观了。由此可以看到，内地股票在2007年人家说是泡沫化，泡沫有多大？如果没有港股直通车，港股是2万点，一说（开通）直通车，港股就冲上了32000点。最低程度可以这样看，2007年，内地人买股票多付了60%的钱。结果，2007年10月，内地股票跌下来，说明又看得太淡了。
现在，A-H差价越来越少了，不过即使现在，内地人对内地股票看的还是好，只是没有以前那么好了。
《21世纪》：从现在的股市情况，我们明年的宏观经济大概会出现怎样的格局？
曹仁超：股市是跑在经济前面3-9个月，究竟是几个月？不知道。现在股市已经告诉你，最差是今年11月，所以预计中国经济最差的时间是明年2-8月。
当然，现在我相信它是底，但世界没有绝对的，只能说有75%以上的可能是这样，即内地经济在明年2-8月最差，这个可以用GDP增长率来衡量，也就是说，最差的GDP数据会出现在2009年的第二季或者是第三季，但明年第四季，一定是好起来了。
现在的情况是，股票开始好，经济跌下去，所以很多人是不相信股票会好的，现在到明年的2-8月，股市是涨不起来也跌不下去，所以我们叫明年2-8月为整固期。而经济呢，不是The worse is over，是the worse is coming，最坏的不是要过去了，而是要来了，但是我已经准备好你来了。
从投资角度来看，明年2-8月买股票的人，我们称他为strong hands，拿住股票就不放，去年10月买股票的，是weak hands，很弱的，这些人拿着股票，你不要吓唬他，一吓唬就全跑了。
股市就是将财富重新分配，股市不是大家赚钞票，而是聪明人赚笨人的钞票，the winner take all，赢的人全部赢光。所以，应该是1个人赢100个。赢多少？100倍。基本上一个lifecycle完了之后，聪明人可以赚到50倍，笨的人，是亏损60%。通常都是这样的。
1950-1980：香港工业化路标
香港为什么这么多有钱的人？因为全世界都没有香港人这么好的运气，有 “ 第二次机会 ” 。
《21世纪》：一个lifecycle指的就是一个经济周期吗？那你觉得明年的第四季是另一个周期的开始吗？
曹仁超：一个lifecycle通常是9-12年，从衰退到繁荣再到衰退。2010年将会开始另一个新的经济周期，不是2009年，这是参考香港的lifecycle。这就讲到你们的改革开放三十周年了。
香港差不多1949年，很多难民跑来香港，香港很穷，因为1945年，香港人口差不多是75万，到1950年差不多是200万，住的地方也没有，吃的也没有，很穷，怎么办呢？开工厂啊。当时工厂工人赚多少钱呢？1块钱一天。
1950年香港人比内地人还穷！我舅舅1950年在上海赚36块一个月，我爹爹跑到香港赚27块一个月，比内地穷，所以我舅舅就说，你到香港干什么？！
问题是，内地从1950年到1979年都是赚36块钱一个月，香港1950年是27块；但是到1978年我们赚多少？1500块，内地还是36块。所以到1978年的时候，内地就觉得香港好了，就是因为我们赚得多，所以邓小平说要开始改革开放。所谓改革开放，假设没有香港，内地可能当时不知道怎么改革、怎么开放。
香港人从1950年到1980年30年，不断开工厂，赚外国人的钞票，从1978年改革开放，香港人开始到内地，用内地的工人赚外国人的钱，从1978-2007年过去30年内地所做的一切，跟1950-1980年的香港做的完全一样。
很多地方都是一样的。比如，我们刚到香港的时候，一天赚一块钱，工资很便宜，土地五毛钱一眨材料很多；1979、1980年内地也是这样嘛，香港人回去开工厂，给内地工人的工资是120块一个月，内地工人当时很开心啊！这跟香港当年完全一样，工人赚不到钱，一下子从36块涨到120块，当然很高兴。
所以我看的话，1978年内地刚刚开放，1979年邓小平去了美国，1980年，美国给了中国最惠国待遇（MFN），之后，中国内地的东西就可以出口到美国了，之前不可以的。
有了这个MFN的地位，加上香港人在香港30年的经验，进到内地再做一次，所以说，香港人是全世界运气最好的，中国台湾有一次经济机会，美国有一次机会，中国香港则有两次机会！
《21世纪》：怎么说？
曹仁超：香港的第一次机会是，1950-1980年的30年，赚了钱。之后怎么办？于是就来了第二次机会。
第二次机会是内地给我们的。在香港开工厂的人，他在1950年的时候有多少钱？只有5万，到1980年，他的资本变成了5000万。在外国，你有5000万港币就差不多了，没有机会了。但是，这时候，内地给了我们香港人第二次机会，就是把这5000万带到内地开工厂，到2007年，30年变成多少钞票？50亿。30年变100倍。
所以香港为什么这么多有钱的人？因为全世界都没有香港人这么好的运气，有第二次机会。
1980-2008：香港金融业起飞
1984年7月后，全球的资金又都来到香港，香港聚集了很多别人的钱，于是，香港人开始用别人的钱来赚钱。
《21世纪》：如果没有内地这30年的机会，香港的经济就不能发展吗？
曹仁超：从1980-2008年，过去30年，你在香港开工厂会怎么样？亏本。现在在香港请一个工人要多少钱？每月6500块。土地多少一眨10万。怎么做工厂？根本没有办法做。所以只有一条路，亏本。
1980年到2008年，过去香港30年经历的事情，从2007年开始在内地出现了！开工厂的人再也赚不到钱了，因为过去30年，（内地的）工资给你弄高了，环境弄坏了，原材料给你炒贵了，所以2007年开工厂的人，70%要亏本，这个不是政府告诉你的，是市场告诉你的。现在你要开工厂赚钱，去哪里？去印度啊，印尼啊，柬埔寨啊，这些东南亚地方，内地已经不欢迎你了，不是政府不欢迎你，是市场不欢迎你了！
所以将来30年，内地开工厂的人会很辛苦，这是我们过去30年的经验告诉你的。从2007年开始，内地的工厂就开始要从劳动力密集型转变为资本密集型，现在全都要机械化，但开工厂赚钱还是很辛苦的，不信你去台湾看看，去日本看看，去韩国看看，它们工厂还在赚钱，但是赚得很辛苦。
《21世纪》：那么在经历过1950-1980年的工业发展之后，香港本地发生了什么？
曹仁超：1980年，香港发生什么事情？工厂全部拆光，全都跑到内地了。所以香港1981-1984年的四年，是非常痛苦的，因为工厂没了，饭没得吃。但是经过这4年，香港发展出什么呢？金融。自此之后，金融业开始上来了，服务业开始上来了，房地产开始上来了。
所以说，1981年到1984年7月，是中国香港最痛苦的4年。当中国与英国关于香港问题的谈判在1984年结束之后，全世界都知道香港要回归，但资本主义保持50年不变，所以从7月开始，全球的资金又都来到香港，香港聚集了很多别人的钱，于是，香港人开始用别人的钱来赚钱，我们叫OPM，也就是Other People's Money。
比如说，香港人从外面拿100亿，给外国人5%的回报率，5亿一年，这些钱在国外很难拿到这么高的回报的，然后我们拿着这100亿到内地投资，赚了20亿，给外国人5亿之后，我们还剩15亿，多好。
《21世纪》：为什么外国人自己不去内地投资而要取道香港？
曹仁超：因为他们不了解中国内地嘛，而我们了解。他们可能连内地人是不是还留着长辫子都不知道！
这就是为什么香港会有这么多外国人的钱，我们就（用这些钱）赚差价，赚了钱之后，香港人就开始买房子、消费，所以房地产和消费就好了，所以说，1984-2007年带动香港经济的是什么？是金融。
比如，很多大型国企到香港上市，如果募集资金1000亿，收2%的佣金就赚2亿，虽然这些大的IPO很多是外资大行做的，但是它在香港也要租写字楼啊，也要请香港人啊，所以最后外国人分了1亿，香港人分1亿。
你想想，几十个人花三四个月的时间赚1亿，你要开工厂的话，多久才能赚1亿？香港人做来做去不就做这个生意嘛！
因为金融的钱容易赚，所以香港自1980年开始从工业转到金融业，过去30年正好是香港金融业的发展周期。
2008后财富聚集地： 上海、北京、深圳
《21世纪》：下一步会怎么样？内地也会复制香港这段历史吗？
曹仁超：是的，中国香港从1984年开始发生的事情，将来要在中国内地再来一次！所以我明年就去上海了，因为机会来了（笑）。将来的上海会跟香港完全一样。
中国内地2007年10月-2010年10月，应该是最低潮的时期，将来涨上去的是金融，不是工业。未来什么行业最赚钱？金融、房地产、服务业（就是开百货公司、酒店、旅游），将来30年赚大钱的再不是工业家了，肯定是金融、房地产这行业。所以这三年是内地经济最痛苦的时候，工业慢慢下去，服务业还没有上来，青黄不接。
从2010年开始，内地会复制香港过去30年的路子，但持续多久很难说，因为香港地方小，上去的时候快，内地应该没有这么快，但是可能持续时间长。
《21世纪》：可能内地和香港有所不同，内地人口这么多，有些需求是必须的，比如对工业品的需求，以前香港没有工业品可以到内地去要，但今后内地没有工业的话，到哪里去要？
曹仁超：讲得很好，今天中国香港没有工业了，但美国还有工业，日本还有工业，可是美国的工业不在纽约，日本工业不在东京，英国工业不在伦敦，所以将来内地的工业在哪里？越退越远，肯定不在深圳、北京、上海。
深圳、北京、上海，30年后会跟现在的香港一模一样，房地产价格跟香港差不多，收入也差不多，平均28000美元/年。30年后，深圳、北京、上海，普通的职员大概会赚2万人民币/月，高职位10万/月，到这个水平之后就上不去了。香港1997年的时候到了这个水平，过去10年都上不去了，日本从1990年到现在18年了，还是上不去，还是因为年收入到20000美元之后就很难上去了，日本维持32000美元/年维持了18年，香港从1997-2007年的10年也基本停留在28000美元/年，美国是33000美元/年。
当然，小的国家很难算，大的国家一般都是年收入到2-3万美元之后就很难上去了，现在内地平均是2500美元/年，未来30年中国内地有机会增加10倍。
所以，你现在买银行的股票，30年之后至少赚10倍，因为内地银行的业绩都比较平均，不会跑赢GDP太多，也不会落后太多，而房地产公司参差不齐，比较难说。
《21世纪》：30年赚10倍，好辛苦啊！
曹仁超：如果你够聪明的话，这30年上落3次，每次上去的时候卖掉，下来的时候买入，那你就有3次机会，赚100倍，
2009年的消息是很坏的，但是投资股票有时要sell on good news, buy on bad news（好消息出货，坏消息入货）。但究竟什么时候会好起来，我不知道，我不是算命的，我是分析员，所以明年3月开始，我会去上海看看，未来的机会不在香港，香港已经很老了。
就好比嫁人要嫁个年轻的聪明的嘛，不要嫁个80岁的老头，万一他活到96岁，你天天对着个老头，有钱也没有用，何况最怕他现在才60岁！所以应该嫁个30岁的刚开始会赚钱的内地人，香港人现在差不多45岁，稳重一点，美国人现在是65岁，有点老了。
嫁内地人还有一个好处，因为内地这个30岁的年轻人，刚刚跌了一跤，已经不再是2007年的内地人，那时候是财大气粗，现在已经more humble，刚刚开始知道什么叫 “谦卑”，这样的男人不错。
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Year Of Ox May Become Another Bear For Stocks
The Chinese year of the ox that begins this month could turn out to be less like a bull and more like another big bear for Asian stocks.
Even after 2008, when roughly $2 trillion of market value was lost in Asia by one measure, the region still has room for further downside. And again, investors will be fixing their sights on what happens in the far-off financial capitals of the Western world.
Compare that to 12 months ago, when the scale of problems in the U.S. mortgage market was less clear. At the time, economists and stock-pickers were abuzz with theories about how Asian economies and markets could "decouple" from the U.S. in 2008. In the following months, the markets proved them wrong with increasing vindictiveness.
Fan Cheuk-wan, regional head of research at Credit Suisse Group''s private-banking division, was among those who expected an economic decoupling. She thought Asian markets would remain resilient "based on the premise that the U.S. subprime crisis would not deteriorate into a full-blown financial crisis," Ms. Fan said.
But it did, and Asia wasn''t spared the pain. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, a widely used index that excludes Japan, fell 52.2%, wiping out about $2 trillion in market capitalization by that metric.
The region was battered by an exodus of cash. In all, global investors withdrew a net $59.9 billion from Asian stock markets in 2008, representing cumulative outflows of about 8% of their total holdings in the region, according to EPFR Global, which tracks asset-allocation data.
In part, panic selling was to blame, as risk-averse Western investors sold off their foreign holdings. But over time, it became clear Asia''s export economy was in for a beating as consumer demand in the West evaporated.
The damage seemed to be distributed indiscriminately across the region. Benchmark indexes in Thailand and Pakistan, two countries rocked by a year of political instability, fell 47.6% and 58.3%, respectively. In Pakistan, the Karachi Stock Exchange imposed a floor on stock prices on Aug. 27, not allowing the index or individual shares to trade below the closing prices that day -- a rule that stayed in place until Dec. 15.
In relatively stable economies such as Japan and Taiwan, where stock markets have been laggards for years, investors were punished just as harshly. Japan''s Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 42.1%, and Taiwan''s Weighted Index dropped 46.0%. Australia''s S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand''s NZSX-50, two indexes battered when commodities prices collapsed in the second half of the year, fell 41.3% and 32.8%, respectively.
In mainland China''s domestic stock market, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 65.4%, dealing a sharp blow to a market that had been one of the world''s top performers in the previous two years.
Hong Kong''s and Singapore''s stock markets, two of the region''s most liquid, became selling targets for global money managers faced with an unprecedented wave of redemptions and margin calls back home. Real economies in both markets also slid into recession, helping knock down Hong Kong''s benchmark Hang Seng Index 48.3% , and Singapore''s Straits TimesIndex 49.2%.
India''s Bombay Stock Exchange, which enjoyed three consecutive years of increases of more than 40%, saw its 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fall 52.4%.
With stock prices having come down so far, many companies look cheap. But things like corporate fundamentals and stock valuations didn''t seem to matter in 2008.
"A lot of stocks looked cheap, but in a crisis like this one, using traditional valuation methods could lose you a lot of money," says Ian Huen of Hong Kong hedge-fund manager Striker Capital. One of its funds finished the year up 6% by making big bets against the market in Hong Kong, Japan and Australia.
Exporters across the region, particularly in the technology sector, were hard hit amid weakening demand for their products, while property developers throughout Asia suffered as prices weakened in once-overheated markets such as China. One surprise hit came from sudden swings in commodity and currency prices, which hammered airlines and infrastructure plays, some of which had big losses from hedging and speculative bets on price movements during times of unprecedented volatility.
Even with all of 2008''s declines, few analysts and strategists think the market has factored in all the potential downside. Forced sales of assets and cutbacks in debt are likely to continue apace in the major economies.
"We''re not out of the woods yet," says Philip Jehle, head of private clients at Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch. Mr. Jehle, based in Hong Kong, is moving his clients'' assets into corporate bonds and physical gold.
Still, a number of analysts believe the second half of 2009 may be a good time to start picking winners. Many Asian companies are better able to weather hard times, having bolstered their balance sheets since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Banks generally have simpler, more-conservative business models and a relatively limited exposure to the complex derivatives that tripped up U.S. and European banks.
By the second half, strong policy actions by governments around the world will have had enough time to take effect. Tough times also will have given stronger companies a chance to swallow up or elbow out weaker rivals.
"Bankruptcies provide an opportunity for stronger companies to increase their market share and grow even if the total market size remains flat," says Kathryn Matthews, chief investment officer for Fidelity International in the Asia-Pacific region. "There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and once we see a recovery in confidence and increased investor flows, Asia-Pacific markets are likely to benefit."
China''s aggressive stimulus measures, coupled with flexibility to lower interest rates further, make some believe it could be an early turnaround candidate.
Even after 2008, when roughly $2 trillion of market value was lost in Asia by one measure, the region still has room for further downside. And again, investors will be fixing their sights on what happens in the far-off financial capitals of the Western world.
Compare that to 12 months ago, when the scale of problems in the U.S. mortgage market was less clear. At the time, economists and stock-pickers were abuzz with theories about how Asian economies and markets could "decouple" from the U.S. in 2008. In the following months, the markets proved them wrong with increasing vindictiveness.
Fan Cheuk-wan, regional head of research at Credit Suisse Group''s private-banking division, was among those who expected an economic decoupling. She thought Asian markets would remain resilient "based on the premise that the U.S. subprime crisis would not deteriorate into a full-blown financial crisis," Ms. Fan said.
But it did, and Asia wasn''t spared the pain. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, a widely used index that excludes Japan, fell 52.2%, wiping out about $2 trillion in market capitalization by that metric.
The region was battered by an exodus of cash. In all, global investors withdrew a net $59.9 billion from Asian stock markets in 2008, representing cumulative outflows of about 8% of their total holdings in the region, according to EPFR Global, which tracks asset-allocation data.
In part, panic selling was to blame, as risk-averse Western investors sold off their foreign holdings. But over time, it became clear Asia''s export economy was in for a beating as consumer demand in the West evaporated.
The damage seemed to be distributed indiscriminately across the region. Benchmark indexes in Thailand and Pakistan, two countries rocked by a year of political instability, fell 47.6% and 58.3%, respectively. In Pakistan, the Karachi Stock Exchange imposed a floor on stock prices on Aug. 27, not allowing the index or individual shares to trade below the closing prices that day -- a rule that stayed in place until Dec. 15.
In relatively stable economies such as Japan and Taiwan, where stock markets have been laggards for years, investors were punished just as harshly. Japan''s Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 42.1%, and Taiwan''s Weighted Index dropped 46.0%. Australia''s S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand''s NZSX-50, two indexes battered when commodities prices collapsed in the second half of the year, fell 41.3% and 32.8%, respectively.
In mainland China''s domestic stock market, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 65.4%, dealing a sharp blow to a market that had been one of the world''s top performers in the previous two years.
Hong Kong''s and Singapore''s stock markets, two of the region''s most liquid, became selling targets for global money managers faced with an unprecedented wave of redemptions and margin calls back home. Real economies in both markets also slid into recession, helping knock down Hong Kong''s benchmark Hang Seng Index 48.3% , and Singapore''s Straits TimesIndex 49.2%.
India''s Bombay Stock Exchange, which enjoyed three consecutive years of increases of more than 40%, saw its 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fall 52.4%.
With stock prices having come down so far, many companies look cheap. But things like corporate fundamentals and stock valuations didn''t seem to matter in 2008.
"A lot of stocks looked cheap, but in a crisis like this one, using traditional valuation methods could lose you a lot of money," says Ian Huen of Hong Kong hedge-fund manager Striker Capital. One of its funds finished the year up 6% by making big bets against the market in Hong Kong, Japan and Australia.
Exporters across the region, particularly in the technology sector, were hard hit amid weakening demand for their products, while property developers throughout Asia suffered as prices weakened in once-overheated markets such as China. One surprise hit came from sudden swings in commodity and currency prices, which hammered airlines and infrastructure plays, some of which had big losses from hedging and speculative bets on price movements during times of unprecedented volatility.
Even with all of 2008''s declines, few analysts and strategists think the market has factored in all the potential downside. Forced sales of assets and cutbacks in debt are likely to continue apace in the major economies.
"We''re not out of the woods yet," says Philip Jehle, head of private clients at Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch. Mr. Jehle, based in Hong Kong, is moving his clients'' assets into corporate bonds and physical gold.
Still, a number of analysts believe the second half of 2009 may be a good time to start picking winners. Many Asian companies are better able to weather hard times, having bolstered their balance sheets since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Banks generally have simpler, more-conservative business models and a relatively limited exposure to the complex derivatives that tripped up U.S. and European banks.
By the second half, strong policy actions by governments around the world will have had enough time to take effect. Tough times also will have given stronger companies a chance to swallow up or elbow out weaker rivals.
"Bankruptcies provide an opportunity for stronger companies to increase their market share and grow even if the total market size remains flat," says Kathryn Matthews, chief investment officer for Fidelity International in the Asia-Pacific region. "There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and once we see a recovery in confidence and increased investor flows, Asia-Pacific markets are likely to benefit."
China''s aggressive stimulus measures, coupled with flexibility to lower interest rates further, make some believe it could be an early turnaround candidate.
CEREBOS: Leading heathfood player with 8.4% div yield
BATTERED BY a slowing global economy, the value of commodities, equities and properties has crumbled during the past few months.
Companies in the business of providing staple and affordable consumer products are most likely to emerge stronger from the financial fallout.
And one of these companies is Cerebos Pacific, a leading consumer food organisation best-known and loved for its flagship product, Brand’s Essence of Chicken, which has been consumed by generations of Asians.
While Brand’s Essence of Chicken is the flagship product for the health supplement business, the company has extended its reach to other parts of the food business, including coffee and sauce.
Currently, the company’s main markets are Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia, with Thailand being the leading contributor to sales.
As expected, health supplements continue to be the main sales driver.
Dividend Keeps Flowing
Cerebos Pacific's flagship product - Brand's Essence of Chicken.
Since FY04, Cerebos has declared a total dividend of $0.25 for FY08, consisting of S$0.06 normal and S$0.19 bonus dividend, which translates into a current yield of 8.4%at current stock price (including bonus dividend).
As at 30 June 2008, Cerebos carried a cash balance of $165.5m, roughly 61.5% of its total liabilities.
The dividend policy is not likely to change in the light of its financial performance to date and ample cash balance.
Stable Margins
For the twelve months ended 30 September 2008, Cerebos booked an 11% rise in turnover with all segments (health supplements, coffee and sauces) reporting higher sales.
Earnings on the other hand fell 4% on higher administrative, distribution and promotion expenses. We note that top and bottom lines could be better if not for foreign exchange transaction loss of $4.8m.
Nonetheless, forex risk is part and parcel of being an international company and even commercial giants such as Sony and Toyota are not immune to the vicissitude of the forex market.
However, Cerebos does not incur actual forex loss as the cash earned in foreign countries are retained in their host nations.
Further, the increase in expenses was attributed to investments in brand building, research and development and capacity expansion, which we view as necessary for future growth.
From FY05 to FY07, Cerebos’ revenue and profit grew at a CAGR of 6.8% and 14.6% respectively.
We like Cerebos for its stable margins especially in the midst of financial turmoil. Gross profit and pre-tax margins have held steadily above the 50% and 9% mark respectively from FY05 to FY08.
Going forward, Cerebos has set a goal of increasing sales to S$1 billion by 2010 but could face considerable headwind as consumer confidence take a hit and the volatile forex movements curb earnings.
But with raw material prices slumping, the pressure on margins should ease. We also believe that Cerebos’ products like coffee, sauces and health supplements are basic items that take up a small fraction of disposable income.
Hence, consumers are more inclined to hold back the purchase of the latest model of a Toyota car rather than refrain from popping a pill or two.
Trend Spotting
Technical Analysis suggests share cosolidation at S$2.83-S$2.98. Data from Bloomberg
Cerebos has bounced off its lower bollinger bands and is trading towards upper bands.
The wide between the bands had widened, suggesting greater volatility. RSI indicator is consolidating above 60.
14 Days SMA (simple moving average) had crossed the 50 Days SMA which is a bullish indicator.
But although resistance level has been broken but the low volume is not convincing enough for a clear buy call.
The support level is S$2.23, which is the daily low on 25 November 2008 while resistance level remains at S$2.92, the high and close on 01 December 2008.
The counter appears to be consolidating at S$2.83 to S$2.98 level.
Companies in the business of providing staple and affordable consumer products are most likely to emerge stronger from the financial fallout.
And one of these companies is Cerebos Pacific, a leading consumer food organisation best-known and loved for its flagship product, Brand’s Essence of Chicken, which has been consumed by generations of Asians.
While Brand’s Essence of Chicken is the flagship product for the health supplement business, the company has extended its reach to other parts of the food business, including coffee and sauce.
Currently, the company’s main markets are Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia, with Thailand being the leading contributor to sales.
As expected, health supplements continue to be the main sales driver.
Dividend Keeps Flowing
Cerebos Pacific's flagship product - Brand's Essence of Chicken.
Since FY04, Cerebos has declared a total dividend of $0.25 for FY08, consisting of S$0.06 normal and S$0.19 bonus dividend, which translates into a current yield of 8.4%at current stock price (including bonus dividend).
As at 30 June 2008, Cerebos carried a cash balance of $165.5m, roughly 61.5% of its total liabilities.
The dividend policy is not likely to change in the light of its financial performance to date and ample cash balance.
Stable Margins
For the twelve months ended 30 September 2008, Cerebos booked an 11% rise in turnover with all segments (health supplements, coffee and sauces) reporting higher sales.
Earnings on the other hand fell 4% on higher administrative, distribution and promotion expenses. We note that top and bottom lines could be better if not for foreign exchange transaction loss of $4.8m.
Nonetheless, forex risk is part and parcel of being an international company and even commercial giants such as Sony and Toyota are not immune to the vicissitude of the forex market.
However, Cerebos does not incur actual forex loss as the cash earned in foreign countries are retained in their host nations.
Further, the increase in expenses was attributed to investments in brand building, research and development and capacity expansion, which we view as necessary for future growth.
From FY05 to FY07, Cerebos’ revenue and profit grew at a CAGR of 6.8% and 14.6% respectively.
We like Cerebos for its stable margins especially in the midst of financial turmoil. Gross profit and pre-tax margins have held steadily above the 50% and 9% mark respectively from FY05 to FY08.
Going forward, Cerebos has set a goal of increasing sales to S$1 billion by 2010 but could face considerable headwind as consumer confidence take a hit and the volatile forex movements curb earnings.
But with raw material prices slumping, the pressure on margins should ease. We also believe that Cerebos’ products like coffee, sauces and health supplements are basic items that take up a small fraction of disposable income.
Hence, consumers are more inclined to hold back the purchase of the latest model of a Toyota car rather than refrain from popping a pill or two.
Trend Spotting
Technical Analysis suggests share cosolidation at S$2.83-S$2.98. Data from Bloomberg
Cerebos has bounced off its lower bollinger bands and is trading towards upper bands.
The wide between the bands had widened, suggesting greater volatility. RSI indicator is consolidating above 60.
14 Days SMA (simple moving average) had crossed the 50 Days SMA which is a bullish indicator.
But although resistance level has been broken but the low volume is not convincing enough for a clear buy call.
The support level is S$2.23, which is the daily low on 25 November 2008 while resistance level remains at S$2.92, the high and close on 01 December 2008.
The counter appears to be consolidating at S$2.83 to S$2.98 level.
RANDY KWEI: Beating the benchmark by a wide margin
SOME FUND managers and analysts – at least those I have met - are so young they couldn’t have lived through, at various times, a bull market and a crash. When a mutual friend introduced me to fund manager Randy Kwei, I knew he was an exception.
He looked to be in his mid- to late 50s. Over dinner at IndoChine by the Singapore River, he let on that he had long sailed past our estimated range. But he didn’t want to be more specific than that.
Randy, who is based in Hong Kong and has an interest in Singapore stocks, acknowledged, not without a glint of pleasure, that many people have told him that he looked far younger than his age. The inevitable question we had in double-quick time was: What’s your anti-aging secret?
Part of the answer had quietly emerged as he flipped through the menu and ordered a vegetarian dish as his main course, rather than some fat-dripping red meat. Randy is a vegetarian. And, as he explained, he is blessed by that ultimate influence on one’s longevity: genes. His father lived past 90 and his mother lived till aged 88.
His own athletic pursuits from an early age have contributed in no small part to his relative youth and vitality today. He picked up tennis more than 30 years ago, and has been playing regularly ever since. Through hiking and skiing over many years, he has enjoyed the great outdoors while living in the United States. He still goes skiing whenever he can when he is overseas.
His gym routine includes lifting weights, working on the Nordic track, running on the treadmill, toning his body, arms, knees and leg muscles. To supplement the workout, he takes up Iyenga yoga to soothe his nerves when they are frayed by market volatility.
“It was in 1998 during the tail end of the Asian financial crisis that I sought an exercise that would calm me down as markets lost altitude. I was diagnosed with high blood pressure – the result of the high level of stress I had to deal with every day.”
Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan is where Randy goes on an annual retreat. Photo: Internet
His annual yoga retreat has taken him to exotic locations, including hiking up to the famous Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan which is perched on a mountain cliff about 3,000 meters above sea level.
The fund that he manages has tested interesting heights too. Over the past 10 turbulent years, it delivered a compounded return of 12 per cent per year. “Since inception in 1994, the fund has outperformed the regional benchmark by over 100 per cent. It’s a track record that I am very proud of,” he said.
He is proud also of his daughter, Kathy, who owns a fledgling handbag business bearing her name and which has received orders from such established high-end fashion powerhouses as Neimen Marcus and Nordstrom in the States, and Saks in the Middle East.
His son, Clarence, is the executive producer for both the People.com and the EW.com on-line magazines, which are the most popular weekly publications in the US.
When did you start investing and what led to that?
I started investing professionally back in 1987, six months before the US market crashed. It was my third career change – after information technology and banking. For several years before that, I was running a small Indonesian-based finance company in Hong Kong. You may recall that there was a banking crisis in 1985 in Hong Kong when bank funding of finance companies virtually dried up. I was looking for another source of revenue and I was attracted to the investment business.
What is the name of your fund, what is the value of its assets under management, its investment focus and, broadly speaking, who are your investors?
The fund’s name is JK Asian Invest, L.P. This fund’s size was about US$48 million going into 2008 but it has since declined due to the market downturn. Fortunately, we have not had any redemption through the turmoil. We focus our investing in the Asia ex-Japan region with prime weightings in Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
We are basically bottom-up stock pickers, seeking absolute return by investing in growth companies with world-class qualities at a sensible value. We use hedging to lower volatility. Our investors are US private families and endowment funds.
In terms of markets and industries, what are the key ones for your fund currently?
We are currently very much cashed up and hedged. In this unprecedented bear market which is still unfolding, we are very cautious and therefore are underweight in all markets and sectors against the regional benchmark.
Over the years, how has your investment approach changed?
My approach in research has been to try to find out as much about a company as possible. On top of the list of due diligence questions would be the background of the management team and the controlling owner. Then, I would want to understand the company’s competitive advantages, its market positioning, its earnings growth history and the strength of its balance sheet.
Of course, we are paid to look ahead and we need to have a good sense of the company’s sustainable growth prospect. The result of our careful work has produced a portfolio wherein its core holdings have an average holding period of four years. Finding fundamentally attractive companies is one of the two ingredients in a fund manager’s work.
Emerging markets are notoriously volatile such that a successful manager has to manage his portfolio actively in response to volatility, whether in a bull market or a bear market. Since I am very cautious, our fund generally produces a lot higher alpha in a down market than in an up market. I haven’t changed my approach of managing investments over the years.
What are two or three best experiences you have had in investing?
In private equity, my most successful as well as challenging project was to support the management buyout of Flex Inc in exchange for a controlling stake in the new entity which we named Flextronics Ltd. The entire transaction which was the largest buyout ever in Asia up to that time amounted to US$50 million, half of which was provided by bank financing. The re-organized firm has since developed into one of the leading electronics manufacturing service companies in the world.
In public equity investing, my best experience has been to buy in the middle of the Asian financial crisis in 1998 when one could scoop up solid companies at less than their book value. One of these was Lotte Chilsung, a leading non-alcoholic beverage maker in South Korea.
The stock was trading at less than book value and P/E of around 4X. Its business was unaffected by the financial meltdown in Korea and it was enjoying solid earnings growth. We bought the stock at 40,000 won per share and sold it four years later at around 600,000 won per share.
What have you done in the last six months as the market slumped?
I have been adding to hedges and selling stocks that had low earnings visibility. In September 2007 I had turned cautious and begun to raise cash so that by the end of the year, our fund had 16 percent of its assets in cash and hedges. Beginning in January 2008, Asian markets kept going down. I continued raising cash and hedges so that, by the end of August, the fund had 42 per cent of its assets hedged. Still, our fund has performed poorly this year even though it has beat the benchmark by a pretty wide margin.
What have you been telling your clients recently?
Hold onto to your cash. It is probably too late to sell but also a little too early to buy. Need to be patient. Looking beyond the valley, Asia is where one would want to overweight his equity commitment.
What has been a great (relatively speaking, of course) stock for you in the past six months?
I have been selling, not buying. No great idea at the moment.
Given whatever is currently known out there, what is your best guess for when Asian markets will hit bottom and recover?
I do not wish to hazard a guess. There are too many unknown factors that make any guess meaningless.
What are some lessons which you draw from the unfolding crisis in the US?
The global financial crisis stemmed from the real estate bust that began in 2006 in the US. However, the real culprits are easy money, a belief in a free market without adequate supervision and regulation, and unprecedented use of leverage to gain short-term profit while times were good. To me, the lesson that should be quite clear is that regulations should cover every sector that is connected to banking and finance industries, including rating agencies, auditing firms and exchanges.
We have learned that the so-called “financial engineering” innovation is nothing more than finding ways to create leverage without disclosing its true risks to investors. The sad truth is, when businesses cannot enjoy organic growth, some “quick buck” smart financial types will resort to leverage to produce “artificial” earnings growth. The period of use of excessive leverage and easy money is now over, but the cost of de-leveraging has caused horrendous damage to the global financial landscape that in turn will cause economic pain.
You would have met many fellow fund managers over a long period of time. What differentiates a great investor from the rest?
A great investor can come in different shapes and shades. Nevertheless, I think he is likely to be someone who has been able to deliver long term return with low volatility, in good times and bad. He is also likely to be someone who doesn’t look for extraordinary performance by riding on the waves of a particular business cycle.
Over a long and rich life, how has your attitude towards money changed?
I have learned that making a decent return on one’s money takes lots of discipline and requires one to understand what he is to commit to before making the commitment. My philosophy in equity investing is never to allocate more capital into an asset class than I can afford to lose. Think long term and try not to get trapped in the hottest ideas at the moment.
I consider making a return to capital as intrinsically important to social progress, because progress demands funding which in turn can only be harnessed if the original capital has grown in value.
How do you intend to lead the rest of your life?
I’d continue doing what I enjoy and that is working on my job to create value for my clients in the long run. I still put in a 10-hour day, although, at times, I take a 10-minute nap in the Hong Kong Club after lunch. I work at least six days a week and am often in the office for a couple of hours on Sundays. I travel quite a bit, typically one trip a month in the region, visiting companies or attending corporate conferences.
When I get together with friends from the US, all of whom have retired, I am often asked when I would join retire. My answer, as always, was that I wouldn’t, unless my health would not permit me to continue working. No, I don’t think I am a driven person. I simply enjoy my work. I have been blessed with good health and good spirit and these gifts should not be wasted in leisure and self-serving activities.
He looked to be in his mid- to late 50s. Over dinner at IndoChine by the Singapore River, he let on that he had long sailed past our estimated range. But he didn’t want to be more specific than that.
Randy, who is based in Hong Kong and has an interest in Singapore stocks, acknowledged, not without a glint of pleasure, that many people have told him that he looked far younger than his age. The inevitable question we had in double-quick time was: What’s your anti-aging secret?
Part of the answer had quietly emerged as he flipped through the menu and ordered a vegetarian dish as his main course, rather than some fat-dripping red meat. Randy is a vegetarian. And, as he explained, he is blessed by that ultimate influence on one’s longevity: genes. His father lived past 90 and his mother lived till aged 88.
His own athletic pursuits from an early age have contributed in no small part to his relative youth and vitality today. He picked up tennis more than 30 years ago, and has been playing regularly ever since. Through hiking and skiing over many years, he has enjoyed the great outdoors while living in the United States. He still goes skiing whenever he can when he is overseas.
His gym routine includes lifting weights, working on the Nordic track, running on the treadmill, toning his body, arms, knees and leg muscles. To supplement the workout, he takes up Iyenga yoga to soothe his nerves when they are frayed by market volatility.
“It was in 1998 during the tail end of the Asian financial crisis that I sought an exercise that would calm me down as markets lost altitude. I was diagnosed with high blood pressure – the result of the high level of stress I had to deal with every day.”
Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan is where Randy goes on an annual retreat. Photo: Internet
His annual yoga retreat has taken him to exotic locations, including hiking up to the famous Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan which is perched on a mountain cliff about 3,000 meters above sea level.
The fund that he manages has tested interesting heights too. Over the past 10 turbulent years, it delivered a compounded return of 12 per cent per year. “Since inception in 1994, the fund has outperformed the regional benchmark by over 100 per cent. It’s a track record that I am very proud of,” he said.
He is proud also of his daughter, Kathy, who owns a fledgling handbag business bearing her name and which has received orders from such established high-end fashion powerhouses as Neimen Marcus and Nordstrom in the States, and Saks in the Middle East.
His son, Clarence, is the executive producer for both the People.com and the EW.com on-line magazines, which are the most popular weekly publications in the US.
When did you start investing and what led to that?
I started investing professionally back in 1987, six months before the US market crashed. It was my third career change – after information technology and banking. For several years before that, I was running a small Indonesian-based finance company in Hong Kong. You may recall that there was a banking crisis in 1985 in Hong Kong when bank funding of finance companies virtually dried up. I was looking for another source of revenue and I was attracted to the investment business.
What is the name of your fund, what is the value of its assets under management, its investment focus and, broadly speaking, who are your investors?
The fund’s name is JK Asian Invest, L.P. This fund’s size was about US$48 million going into 2008 but it has since declined due to the market downturn. Fortunately, we have not had any redemption through the turmoil. We focus our investing in the Asia ex-Japan region with prime weightings in Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
We are basically bottom-up stock pickers, seeking absolute return by investing in growth companies with world-class qualities at a sensible value. We use hedging to lower volatility. Our investors are US private families and endowment funds.
In terms of markets and industries, what are the key ones for your fund currently?
We are currently very much cashed up and hedged. In this unprecedented bear market which is still unfolding, we are very cautious and therefore are underweight in all markets and sectors against the regional benchmark.
Over the years, how has your investment approach changed?
My approach in research has been to try to find out as much about a company as possible. On top of the list of due diligence questions would be the background of the management team and the controlling owner. Then, I would want to understand the company’s competitive advantages, its market positioning, its earnings growth history and the strength of its balance sheet.
Of course, we are paid to look ahead and we need to have a good sense of the company’s sustainable growth prospect. The result of our careful work has produced a portfolio wherein its core holdings have an average holding period of four years. Finding fundamentally attractive companies is one of the two ingredients in a fund manager’s work.
Emerging markets are notoriously volatile such that a successful manager has to manage his portfolio actively in response to volatility, whether in a bull market or a bear market. Since I am very cautious, our fund generally produces a lot higher alpha in a down market than in an up market. I haven’t changed my approach of managing investments over the years.
What are two or three best experiences you have had in investing?
In private equity, my most successful as well as challenging project was to support the management buyout of Flex Inc in exchange for a controlling stake in the new entity which we named Flextronics Ltd. The entire transaction which was the largest buyout ever in Asia up to that time amounted to US$50 million, half of which was provided by bank financing. The re-organized firm has since developed into one of the leading electronics manufacturing service companies in the world.
In public equity investing, my best experience has been to buy in the middle of the Asian financial crisis in 1998 when one could scoop up solid companies at less than their book value. One of these was Lotte Chilsung, a leading non-alcoholic beverage maker in South Korea.
The stock was trading at less than book value and P/E of around 4X. Its business was unaffected by the financial meltdown in Korea and it was enjoying solid earnings growth. We bought the stock at 40,000 won per share and sold it four years later at around 600,000 won per share.
What have you done in the last six months as the market slumped?
I have been adding to hedges and selling stocks that had low earnings visibility. In September 2007 I had turned cautious and begun to raise cash so that by the end of the year, our fund had 16 percent of its assets in cash and hedges. Beginning in January 2008, Asian markets kept going down. I continued raising cash and hedges so that, by the end of August, the fund had 42 per cent of its assets hedged. Still, our fund has performed poorly this year even though it has beat the benchmark by a pretty wide margin.
What have you been telling your clients recently?
Hold onto to your cash. It is probably too late to sell but also a little too early to buy. Need to be patient. Looking beyond the valley, Asia is where one would want to overweight his equity commitment.
What has been a great (relatively speaking, of course) stock for you in the past six months?
I have been selling, not buying. No great idea at the moment.
Given whatever is currently known out there, what is your best guess for when Asian markets will hit bottom and recover?
I do not wish to hazard a guess. There are too many unknown factors that make any guess meaningless.
What are some lessons which you draw from the unfolding crisis in the US?
The global financial crisis stemmed from the real estate bust that began in 2006 in the US. However, the real culprits are easy money, a belief in a free market without adequate supervision and regulation, and unprecedented use of leverage to gain short-term profit while times were good. To me, the lesson that should be quite clear is that regulations should cover every sector that is connected to banking and finance industries, including rating agencies, auditing firms and exchanges.
We have learned that the so-called “financial engineering” innovation is nothing more than finding ways to create leverage without disclosing its true risks to investors. The sad truth is, when businesses cannot enjoy organic growth, some “quick buck” smart financial types will resort to leverage to produce “artificial” earnings growth. The period of use of excessive leverage and easy money is now over, but the cost of de-leveraging has caused horrendous damage to the global financial landscape that in turn will cause economic pain.
You would have met many fellow fund managers over a long period of time. What differentiates a great investor from the rest?
A great investor can come in different shapes and shades. Nevertheless, I think he is likely to be someone who has been able to deliver long term return with low volatility, in good times and bad. He is also likely to be someone who doesn’t look for extraordinary performance by riding on the waves of a particular business cycle.
Over a long and rich life, how has your attitude towards money changed?
I have learned that making a decent return on one’s money takes lots of discipline and requires one to understand what he is to commit to before making the commitment. My philosophy in equity investing is never to allocate more capital into an asset class than I can afford to lose. Think long term and try not to get trapped in the hottest ideas at the moment.
I consider making a return to capital as intrinsically important to social progress, because progress demands funding which in turn can only be harnessed if the original capital has grown in value.
How do you intend to lead the rest of your life?
I’d continue doing what I enjoy and that is working on my job to create value for my clients in the long run. I still put in a 10-hour day, although, at times, I take a 10-minute nap in the Hong Kong Club after lunch. I work at least six days a week and am often in the office for a couple of hours on Sundays. I travel quite a bit, typically one trip a month in the region, visiting companies or attending corporate conferences.
When I get together with friends from the US, all of whom have retired, I am often asked when I would join retire. My answer, as always, was that I wouldn’t, unless my health would not permit me to continue working. No, I don’t think I am a driven person. I simply enjoy my work. I have been blessed with good health and good spirit and these gifts should not be wasted in leisure and self-serving activities.
DBS VICKERS' Fire Sale report
DBS Vickers’ “Regional Equity Strategy 1Q 2009” report was titled Fire Sale.
It said the Singapore market is oversold, and poised for a rebound on cheap valuations.
But uncertainties continue to lurk amidst a tough operating environment, as recession hits and job cuts continue to rise.
“The bears will prevail in 2009, and we expect the STI to trade within a band of 1250 to 2100 as it base-builds towards a more convincing recovery in 2010.”
Excerpts from the report:
Singapore's forward PE is now at the level when it was hit by the Asian financial crisis.
Post the meltdown in October 2008, the market is cheap by all measures. At current levels of 1740, forward PE of 11x is close to the regional crisis low and dividend yields of 5.2% has surpassed previous lows of 3.5%. An expansionary budget to be unveiled inJanuary 2009, coupled with optimism over Obama’s fiscal measures to boost theUS economy are key catalysts for the rebound in 1Q09.
The economy is not out of the woods yet, and bad news from the corporate sector will cap performance. We expect the STI to trade within a range of 1450 to 2180. The low end of the range reflects a P/B of 0.9x, which is -2 standard deviations from the mean.
This is consistent with recession year valuations.
Stick to survivors of the fittest with the tenacity to ride through this recession.These will be companies backed by relatively resilient earnings, strong cashflows, and cashed-up balance sheet. They are in a favourable position to acquire cheap assets as deflation runs its course into 2009. Our preferred picks are SMRT, SIA Engineering, SPH and ST Engineering.
We would sell asset plays including property and shipping companies on the rebound, as the process of de-leveraging will lead to asset devaluation in 2009. Distressed valuation levels will spur M&A activities, potential candidates can be found among technology,oil and gas and S chips.
STRATEGY
Themes :
A) Go for stocks with earnings resilience in recessions.
We would pick stocks with earnings resilience, as the economy struggles through the recession.
As we are still in the early phase of the recessionary cycle, we would pick stocks with resilient earnings – mainly land transport companies, media services and telecoms companies.
Our preferred picks are SMRT and Comfort Delgro, beneficiaries of the switch to public transport, as evidenced by a rise in ridership, while M1 is the cheapest telco play.
Singpost’s revenues were maintained during previous recessions (1998 and 2003) while SPH is the monopolistic player in newspaper advertising in Singapore.
B) Sell asset plays on strength.
The process of de-leveraging has yet to complete its course, and asset deflation has just started to unwind. We would take the opportunity in a bear market rally to sell on strength stocks in the property, shipping and hotel sectors.
Property stocks have been sold down to distressed levels, trading at prices close to its 1998 valuation levels, hovering at price to RNAV of 0.5x. The sector, while cheap, provides no catalyst for re-rating as yet, as we expect more downside to prices of properties.
Anecdotal evidence indicated that prices for high end properties have declined by 20% from its peak, vs our expectations of a 40% decline. Shipping stocks are hit by a plunge in freight rates, overcapacity issues and aggressive expansion plans which will stress their balance sheets.
Hotel plays are capped by drops in tourist arrivals since June 2008, amidst new capacity coming on-stream from 2009 once Marina Sands is completed by end-09.
C) Survival of the fittest – stress testing the balance sheet.
Contrary to market perception, net debt to equity ratio of STI companies at 23% currently is higher than the regional crisis levels of 1997 to 1999. In early 2000, companies, particularly Temasek-linked entities, were shifting towards optimizing their capital structure and efficient capital management, leading to higher dividend payouts.
As such, net debt ratios shot up to 50% in 2002, in tandem with arise in dividend payout ratio to 80% and a fall in corporate earnings. Subsequent years of economic boom led to a period of build up in cash flows, and decline in net debt.
It said the Singapore market is oversold, and poised for a rebound on cheap valuations.
But uncertainties continue to lurk amidst a tough operating environment, as recession hits and job cuts continue to rise.
“The bears will prevail in 2009, and we expect the STI to trade within a band of 1250 to 2100 as it base-builds towards a more convincing recovery in 2010.”
Excerpts from the report:
Singapore's forward PE is now at the level when it was hit by the Asian financial crisis.
Post the meltdown in October 2008, the market is cheap by all measures. At current levels of 1740, forward PE of 11x is close to the regional crisis low and dividend yields of 5.2% has surpassed previous lows of 3.5%. An expansionary budget to be unveiled inJanuary 2009, coupled with optimism over Obama’s fiscal measures to boost theUS economy are key catalysts for the rebound in 1Q09.
The economy is not out of the woods yet, and bad news from the corporate sector will cap performance. We expect the STI to trade within a range of 1450 to 2180. The low end of the range reflects a P/B of 0.9x, which is -2 standard deviations from the mean.
This is consistent with recession year valuations.
Stick to survivors of the fittest with the tenacity to ride through this recession.These will be companies backed by relatively resilient earnings, strong cashflows, and cashed-up balance sheet. They are in a favourable position to acquire cheap assets as deflation runs its course into 2009. Our preferred picks are SMRT, SIA Engineering, SPH and ST Engineering.
We would sell asset plays including property and shipping companies on the rebound, as the process of de-leveraging will lead to asset devaluation in 2009. Distressed valuation levels will spur M&A activities, potential candidates can be found among technology,oil and gas and S chips.
STRATEGY
Themes :
A) Go for stocks with earnings resilience in recessions.
We would pick stocks with earnings resilience, as the economy struggles through the recession.
As we are still in the early phase of the recessionary cycle, we would pick stocks with resilient earnings – mainly land transport companies, media services and telecoms companies.
Our preferred picks are SMRT and Comfort Delgro, beneficiaries of the switch to public transport, as evidenced by a rise in ridership, while M1 is the cheapest telco play.
Singpost’s revenues were maintained during previous recessions (1998 and 2003) while SPH is the monopolistic player in newspaper advertising in Singapore.
B) Sell asset plays on strength.
The process of de-leveraging has yet to complete its course, and asset deflation has just started to unwind. We would take the opportunity in a bear market rally to sell on strength stocks in the property, shipping and hotel sectors.
Property stocks have been sold down to distressed levels, trading at prices close to its 1998 valuation levels, hovering at price to RNAV of 0.5x. The sector, while cheap, provides no catalyst for re-rating as yet, as we expect more downside to prices of properties.
Anecdotal evidence indicated that prices for high end properties have declined by 20% from its peak, vs our expectations of a 40% decline. Shipping stocks are hit by a plunge in freight rates, overcapacity issues and aggressive expansion plans which will stress their balance sheets.
Hotel plays are capped by drops in tourist arrivals since June 2008, amidst new capacity coming on-stream from 2009 once Marina Sands is completed by end-09.
C) Survival of the fittest – stress testing the balance sheet.
Contrary to market perception, net debt to equity ratio of STI companies at 23% currently is higher than the regional crisis levels of 1997 to 1999. In early 2000, companies, particularly Temasek-linked entities, were shifting towards optimizing their capital structure and efficient capital management, leading to higher dividend payouts.
As such, net debt ratios shot up to 50% in 2002, in tandem with arise in dividend payout ratio to 80% and a fall in corporate earnings. Subsequent years of economic boom led to a period of build up in cash flows, and decline in net debt.
DBS Vickers' picks for Q1 rally
IN ITS just-published report, DBS Vickers Securities said it sees the bear market rally that started in 4Q08 extending into 1Q 09.
Investors can look forward to year-end window dressing activities and Singapore’s budgetscheduled on January 22.
The broker’s 18-page report also said that US President elect Obama’s pledge to revive the economy should continue to attract bargain hunting on minor dips ahead of his swearing in ceremony on Jan 20.
Despite these near-term positives, DBS Vickers is mindful of the ongoing credit crisis and the vulnerability of small companies.
Second half of the top chart.
In addition to attractive PE valuations, DBS Vickers considers a strong balance sheet a must. Additional criteria:
* Companies with net cash (or slight net debt),
* An Altman’s Z-score (a formula for predicting bankruptcy, the lower the score, the higherchance of bankruptcy) of at least 2.0.
* Good operating cash flows.
* No sharp increase in debtor’s turnover days.
Excerpts from the report:
(1) Beneficiary of China’s focus on domestic consumption
China Hongxing is expected to benefit from the Chinese government’s initiatives to focus on domestic consumption. Its sportswear products, which cater to mid-to-low end consumers in 2nd and 3rd tier cities in China, are less susceptible to the economic slowdown compared to high-end consumables.
Hongxing offers good value at current value as the stock is backed by 17 cts net cash per share and offering 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY09 and FY10.
More stocks recommended
(2) Beneficiary of China’s massive USD583bil stimulus plan.
The recently announced stimulus package includes plans for environmental protection that could be beneficial for waste and water treatment companies. Our second pick is leading water and wastewater treatment company Epure.
The company has a strong net cash of 14cts/share, and is in a strong financial position which enables it to finance BOT projects and future working capital through internally generated funds. Current valuation is compelling at 4.7x FY09 PER.
(3) Rebound in oil price lifts oversold O&M stocks
Oil price has fallen nearly 70% since peaking out at USD147 per barrell. Our average oil price assumption for 2009 is USD60pbl, which is about 40% higher compared to current price.
Our technical analyst sees strong support for oil price at USD38-40pbl.
ASL has a dividend yield of around 11%. Photo by Leong Chan Teik
Our picks are Ezra and ASL Marine. We view Ezra’s recent announcement to review its orders for 5 multi-functional support vessels positively as it signals a preference towards cash conservation, thus improving on its current net debt position even as growth continues to be underpinned by long-term charter contracts.
ASL Marine’s strong balance sheet and good earnings visibility from its large shipbuilding order book coupled with sustained strong demand for ship repair and chartering services justifies the company as our next pick in the O&M sector.
ASL also offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 11%.
(4) Healthcare sector as defensive
Our final pick is Raffles Medical. Besides the defensive nature of its business, the company boasts of strong operating cash flow and has a strong net cash position that should increase from S$9mil as of Sept 08 to S$16 mil by end 2008.
Its healthy balance sheet will see it through this period of uncertainty. It is trading at its historical low valuation of c. 10x PE.
Investors can look forward to year-end window dressing activities and Singapore’s budgetscheduled on January 22.
The broker’s 18-page report also said that US President elect Obama’s pledge to revive the economy should continue to attract bargain hunting on minor dips ahead of his swearing in ceremony on Jan 20.
Despite these near-term positives, DBS Vickers is mindful of the ongoing credit crisis and the vulnerability of small companies.
Second half of the top chart.
In addition to attractive PE valuations, DBS Vickers considers a strong balance sheet a must. Additional criteria:
* Companies with net cash (or slight net debt),
* An Altman’s Z-score (a formula for predicting bankruptcy, the lower the score, the higherchance of bankruptcy) of at least 2.0.
* Good operating cash flows.
* No sharp increase in debtor’s turnover days.
Excerpts from the report:
(1) Beneficiary of China’s focus on domestic consumption
China Hongxing is expected to benefit from the Chinese government’s initiatives to focus on domestic consumption. Its sportswear products, which cater to mid-to-low end consumers in 2nd and 3rd tier cities in China, are less susceptible to the economic slowdown compared to high-end consumables.
Hongxing offers good value at current value as the stock is backed by 17 cts net cash per share and offering 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY09 and FY10.
More stocks recommended
(2) Beneficiary of China’s massive USD583bil stimulus plan.
The recently announced stimulus package includes plans for environmental protection that could be beneficial for waste and water treatment companies. Our second pick is leading water and wastewater treatment company Epure.
The company has a strong net cash of 14cts/share, and is in a strong financial position which enables it to finance BOT projects and future working capital through internally generated funds. Current valuation is compelling at 4.7x FY09 PER.
(3) Rebound in oil price lifts oversold O&M stocks
Oil price has fallen nearly 70% since peaking out at USD147 per barrell. Our average oil price assumption for 2009 is USD60pbl, which is about 40% higher compared to current price.
Our technical analyst sees strong support for oil price at USD38-40pbl.
ASL has a dividend yield of around 11%. Photo by Leong Chan Teik
Our picks are Ezra and ASL Marine. We view Ezra’s recent announcement to review its orders for 5 multi-functional support vessels positively as it signals a preference towards cash conservation, thus improving on its current net debt position even as growth continues to be underpinned by long-term charter contracts.
ASL Marine’s strong balance sheet and good earnings visibility from its large shipbuilding order book coupled with sustained strong demand for ship repair and chartering services justifies the company as our next pick in the O&M sector.
ASL also offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 11%.
(4) Healthcare sector as defensive
Our final pick is Raffles Medical. Besides the defensive nature of its business, the company boasts of strong operating cash flow and has a strong net cash position that should increase from S$9mil as of Sept 08 to S$16 mil by end 2008.
Its healthy balance sheet will see it through this period of uncertainty. It is trading at its historical low valuation of c. 10x PE.
In Post We Trust
Fair Value: S$0.93
General Data
Issued Capital : 1,926 millions
Mkt Cap S$ 1,531 millions
Major Shareholder : SingTel (25.7%)
Free Float (%) 74.2
NTA per share (S$) 0.118
Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 4,079
52Wk High (S$) 1.180
52Wk Low (S$) 0.795
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network, SingPost also provides agency and financial services. In 1H09, the group achieved a 4.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$241.6m but incurred a 1.5% fall in net profit to S$76.9m. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit was higher by 11.5% at S$77.7m.
Should remain dominant despite liberalisation. Despite the liberalisation of the basic mail services market in Apr 07, SingPost is still in a strong position to remain as the dominant postal services operator.
Only it can hold the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates, as dictated by the Info-communications Development Authority (IDA). With other advantages like an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. SingPost has stable operating and free cash flows given the nature of its business. It has also been increasing its dividend per share since its IPO in 2003 to S$0.0625 in FY08. With the uncertainty in today's stock markets, its earnings are comparatively defensive. Although mail volume growth may be affected by e-substitution and the slowing economy, SingPost has undertaken proactive measures, as evidenced from its launched initiatives and diversification of services.
Initiate with BUY. The defensive nature of SingPost's business and its dominant market position renders it an attractive investment. Its proactive measures demonstrate its resolution to safeguard its profits, making it an even more compelling stock. Moreover, with a long list of properties under its name, SingPost may be able to unlock asset value when the time is ripe. We initiate SingPost with a BUY recommendation and S$0.93 fair value, derived from the free cash flow to equity approach (cost of equity 8.8%, terminal growth 2%). SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost
continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this would imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
I. Background in brief
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network with its post offices, self-service automated machines (SAMs) and vPost, its internet portal, SingPost provides not only postal but also agency and financial services.
II. Investment highlights
Dominant postal services operator. SingPost has been, and still is, the dominant player in the postal services industry in Singapore. Although the basic mail services market was liberalised in April 2007, SingPost still holds the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates. As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-todoor, limiting pricing flexibility. With other advantages such as an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have a limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Historically, SingPost has weathered economic downturns well, with flat revenues during the Asian financial crisis and a marginal 2% fall during the SARS crisis. This is especially relevant now given that the world is probably experiencing the worst slump since the Great Depression, with companies going through tough times in the face of falling demand and drying credit lines. SingPost has stable operating cash flows (Exhibit 1), a strong balance sheet and
dominant market position. Management has reiterated its dividend policy of a minimum of S$0.05 per share each year. Such factors render it an attractive stock given the current volatile market conditions. SingPost has also outperformed the general market over the past year in terms of share price, excluding dividends.
Opportunities for growth. SingPost has been launching new services and initiatives over the past few years, and latest ones include "ClickPost", an internet-enabled one-stop mailing solution for customers and "A.M. Mail", a time-certain service that bridges the gap between express mail and regular mail. It has also leveraged on its wide retail network via partnerships with companies such as GE Money, ERA Realty and Prudential. Direct mail (junk mail) is a segment that SingPost is targeting for growth by capturing a bigger slice of the advertising market share. According to SingPost, its current share is 4-5% of the Singapore market, while counterparts in
developed countries such as the UK enjoy about 14% of their country's market share. SingPost therefore believes it has potential to grow in this area.
Potential boosts from assets. SingPost is able to unlock value from its properties, and management has previously expressed interest in selling its flagship building, the Singapore Post Centre (SPC), next to Paya Lebar MRT Station. The group has also been selling some of its smaller properties, such as HDB shop units at Boon Lay Place and Clementi Central for S$2.8m and S$7.9m respectively. Though there are potential capital gains to be reaped from such asset sales, the likelihood of more sales, especially that of SPC, could be lower given the weakening property market. SingPost is also repurposing some of its post offices such as its Tanglin Post Office
which has been converted into a lifestyle hub with tenants such as Friven and Co, SunMoon Food Company, as well as The Wine Shop.
Sustainability amid uncertainty. In a time and age when melamine is appearing in milk and financial institutions are imploding, it is a tough call to think of entities worth entrusting our assets to today. However, SingPost is likely to appear on the list of trusted names given its consistent service quality over the years in terms of speed and reliability. It also has a history of paying out about 75-85% of its earnings and 70-80% of its free cash flow every year in the form of dividends since 2004, after its IPO in 2003. This is ideal as we prefer companies with free cash flow payout ratios below 80%, demonstrating that the firm has catered a cash cushion to maintain its dividend payments. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share.
III. Risks
Spectacular capital gains unlikely. SingPost may not be attractive to investors who are looking for spectacular capital gains, given its defensive profile. As it has outperformed the market in the past year, its share price has not plunged as much as others, so investors looking for quick gains are unlikely to be satisfied with SingPost (unless SingPost gives a special dividend when it sells its SPC building when the property market picks up).
Although management is looking at growth drivers across all its business segments, it has singled out direct mail as an area they wish to further develop. It is unlikely, however, that the direct mail market will grow substantially in the short term given the current economic downturn as companies may choose to curtail advertising costs. However SingPost may be able to capture greater market share despite the slower market growth in the short term.
Margins may deteriorate. With new entrants after the liberalisation of the basic mail services market, we expect greater margin pressure. Profit margin for 2Q09 was 31.0%, lower than 33.2% in 2Q08. As such, management will continue to focus on cost management measures to control its costs but we do note that easing inflation should help SingPost mitigate its costs.
Increase in terminal dues. The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has reclassified Singapore as a "target country" (previously known as "industrialized country") from its current category of "net contributor country" for the purpose of terminal dues settlement, with effect from 1 Jan 2010.
Singapore will have to apply the relevant terminal dues system from 2010 to 2013 and contribute to the UPU Quality of Service Fund. All this means that net terminal dues payments (dependent on type and volume of mail, and destination mix) will rise, therefore increasing SingPost's traffic expenses. SingPost said it will apply to IDA for adjustments in postage rates if necessary, but any revisions will require IDA's approval.
Other risks. Terrorist acts happen swiftly and unexpectedly, and such threats should never be disregarded. Postal and express delivery operations may be disrupted by the threat of anthrax attacks or mail bombs, whether real or hoaxes, including other terrorism-related activities. Any such incident could negatively impact SingPost's business and reputation.
Section B: Country Analysis and Macroeconomic Forces
Economic downturn will affect demand. Singapore, being the first Asian country to enter into a technical recession, is expected to contract by as much as 2% in the coming year, according to official estimates. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Singapore will be among the world's 10 slowest-growing economies in 2009, and sees it contracting by 2.2%. With such a backdrop, SingPost's businesses, especially the mail and retail segments, are likely to be affected as well:
1) Public mail has been decreasingly steadily over the years with esubstitution, while business mail volumes should decline with slower business activity. Direct mail may be impacted by lower advertising expenditure, but SingPost hopes to mitigate its slowdown by capturing greater market share, as discussed earlier.
2) SingPost's retail segment comprises agency services and retail products, as well as financial services such as remittances and unsecured lending. With a weakening real economy, people are likely to curtail their spending and decrease consumption.
Not all segments will be hit. Singapore's increasing foreign population means that foreign remittances could grow, although money remitted home could either rise (family members may need more money with the global downturn) or fall (workers may be retrenched or suffer from pay-cuts).
SingPost revealed that its main customers are from the Philippines and neighbouring countries, while Chinese and Indians form a smaller percentage. Going forward, SingPost hopes to secure more customers in the latter group to sustain the remittance business. SingPost also has six pawnshops under the SpeedCash brand. Pawnshops are normally a reliable bellweather of the state of the economy, as there is usually an increase in business with more people looking for fast ways to get cash during an economic crisis. With the economic downturn and projected rising unemployment, pawnshops are likely to benefit.
Easing inflation may mitigate cost pressures. SingPost has been experiencing cost pressures partly from rising labour costs which make up the bulk (27%) of total operating expenses in FY08. It is unlikely that wage and other costs increases will be substantial going forward given easing inflation in Singapore and the current difficult operating environment which has prompted firms to retrench workers. Fuel costs are also unlikely to spike up in the near future (barring unforeseen circumstances) with lower oil prices in light of the slowing global economy.
Section C: Industry Analysis
As revenue from the mail business made up 77% of total revenue and 81% of operating profit in FY08, we will examine this segment in greater detail.
I. Singapore's postal services sector
Slow growth in total mail volume. According to IDA, while total mail volume in Singapore enjoyed healthy growth in the 1990s, the average growth rate in recent years has slowed to about 2% a year. Despite esubstitution, SingPost experienced an increase in mail volume handled in both domestic and international mail. In the longer term, once the economy picks up, direct mail should be an important growth driver since there is still room for SingPost's business to grow. However, as we weather the current economic downturn, companies are expected to send out less direct marketing mail. As such, mail industry growth is not expected to be spectacular.
Includes domestic letters, postcards, and printed pages sent and received within Singapore, and similar categories of international mail, both inbound and outbound.
Excludes express letters and parcels.
Longest history in Singapore among the five existing firms. Although SingPost was incorporated in Mar 92, its actual history actually dates back to 1819 through its predecessors. Pursuant to a license granted by the IDA in Apr 92, SingPost was the exclusive provider of basic mail services until Mar 07. Swiss Post International Singapore was issued a postal service license only in 2007. The others were issued licenses only in 2008.
Basic mail is the only area of liberalisation. Basic mail refers to letters and postcards, excluding express letters. Under the domestic mail segment, SingPost is likely to encounter increased competition in the direct mail business, although this segment has always been open to competition.
Among the other four postal service operators, it is possible that Swiss Post International (S) and WMG may compete for market share in direct marketing services. International mail (both inbound and outbound) is also likely to face greater competition, as IDA's intention is to develop Singapore as a regional printing hub and enhance e-commerce activities.
Still has some exclusive rights. SingPost is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore, which means only it has access to letterbox masterdoor keys, and the rationale behind IDA's decision is to protect mail integrity in the public postal system and safeguard consumers' interests.
As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-to-door, limiting pricing flexibility. SingPost will also be the only one to issue national stamps and continue to be the organization representing Singapore at international and regional postal meetings.
Widening network. SingPost has also been increasing its reach to consumers over the years. Its postal network comprises post offices, stamp vendors, SAMs and postboxes. Given the nature of the business where convenience and easy access are among the main priorities of the customer, SingPost's vast distribution network ensures that it has the competitive advantage.
Degree of competition. Potential competitors are unlikely to compete aggressively in the domestic mail market considering that they have to utilize SingPost's access network since they do not hold the masterdoor keys. As such, there is limited pricing flexibility. There could be more competition in the international mail market but SingPost also has a joint venture (Spring, set up in 2001) with TNT Post and Royal Mail for the crossborder mail business. As for logistics, SingPost has admitted that this is a highly competitive business but the group said it has performed well in the past year by expanding its customer base in a variety of industries.
II. Global postal services sector
Postal service operators not spared. The financial crisis has affected postal service operators around the world, including the United States Postal Service (USPS), the biggest postal service in the world. The group posted a net loss of US$2.8b for FY08, partly due to a 9.5b decline in mail volumes to 202.7b pieces. The UK's Royal Mail has also said that its operations "face additional risk from the squeeze in the UK economy" and from businesses' and individuals' cost-cutting measures.
State of the worldwide postal sector. The postal sector is still very much relevant and certain sectors are expected to grow. According to the UPU, while growth in urgent mail is stagnating in industrialized countries, there is still "tremendous growth potential" in emerging countries. Direct mail is growing in both developed and developing countries. New technologies can be utilized as means of increasing the interconnectedness among countries and further integrating the postal offices around the world, therefore increasing the points of access for ordinary citizens.
Section D: Company Analysis
I. Business overview
SingPost has three main operating divisions: mail, logistics and retail. In the latest 2Q09 results, mail accounted for 72% of total revenue, while logistics and retail made up 15% and 13% respectively.
Public Mail
Public mail consists primarily of stamped mail and franked mail. Stamped mail is sent mainly by individuals and consists letters and postcards (excluding express letters). Volumes have been declining due to substitution by email and the Internet. Franked mail is used primarily by home offices and SMEs as a method of mailing large quantities of mail of different weights and sizes. Volumes have been declining as franked mail customers upgrade to bulk mail.
Bulk Mail
Bulk mail consists of publications, direct mail, and government and business mail. It is used as an efficient means of distributing large quantities of homogenous mail such as invoices and promotional mailings. Processing and delivery times are reduced as the customer's items and postage rates do not have to be weighed and calculated individually.
Hybrid Mail
More bulk mail is being outsourced for printing and mailing as companies focus more on their core businesses and competencies. Main customers include financial institutions, telecommunications companies, and government bodies, among others.
International Mail
There is increasing competition in the international mail market as new competitors enter previously regulated markets in the world. International mail volumes are also likely to be hit by the global economic slowdown.
Philatelic
SingPost produces commemorative and special stamps as well as other collectibles for tourists and the gift market.
Speedpost
Speedpost is a door-to-door express delivery service for documents, parcels and freight. Speedpost Islandwide is a service within Singapore, Speedpost Worldwide provides international deliveries, while Speedpost Freight transports large or heavyweight shipments.
Warehousing, fulfillment and distribution
This is a complement to Speedpost and provides business customers a one-stop logistics service. Fulfillment services include item collection, wrapping, payment collection, shipping and invoicing.
vPost (shop and ship)
vPost is SingPost's online portal that offers a range of services including shopping and shipping. Currently, customers can purchase items from certain countries in the world and have them delivered to their doorstep.
Retail
SingPost sells a wide variety of postal and non-postal products including packaging and stationery items. Customers can also pay their utility bills, taxes, fines, license fees and other contributions as organizations outsource payment administration to SingPost.
Under financial services, remittances and unsecured lending made up the bulk of this segment's revenue while post-assurance and secured lending accounted for the rest. With the credit crunch and economic downturn, SingPost's lending business may improve as banks tighten their lending.
II. Competitive positioning and corporate strategies
Emphasis on quality. Instead of merely relying on a cost leadership model, SingPost places great emphasis on service quality and worker productivity.
In FY08, SingPost continued to surpass the Quality of Serivce in mail delivery set by the IDA by achieving more than 99% delivery by the next working day for mail posted within and outside the Central Business District (CBD).
The group also achieved international recognition in the World Mail Awards (Quality category) on the basis of increased productivity, discounts to customers, lower incidence of damage and improved sorting accuracy and delivery.
Productivity increases. Postman productivity has also increased from 2,923 to 3,130 items delivered per postman per effective man-day in FY08, while productivity of mail processing officers grew from 5,765 to 6,307 items sorted per processing officer. Going forward, SingPost aims to pursue further efficiency improvements.
More effective direct mail. SingPost also has a competitive advantage based on its extensive network and proprietary database. SingPost's updated data repository and clear understanding of the whereabouts of the target audience is important in increasing the effectiveness of direct mail, as mail can be sent to targeted customer segments. This increases the response rate and cuts unnecessary spending for the corporate partner.
One-Stop-Shop service. SingPost is able to provide a one-stop service for its customers through its mail, logistics and retail divisions. The group has diversified its operations in the past few years with forays into remittances and lending services, among others. New initiatives and joint ventures have been undertaken as well, and the following exhibit illustrates some in the past 3 years.
III. SWOT analysis table
The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats with regards to SingPost have been discussed in earlier parts of the report, but just to recap:
Key JVs and initiatives in the past three years
15 Dec 08 Launched A.M. Mail Time-certain service that delivers mail by 11am the next working day
20 Oct 08 Termination of JV JV with GPN International and Oce
19 Sep 08 Added new remittance channel New channel to the Philippines through the Philppine National Bank
29 Apr 08 Collaboration with ABN AMRO SingPost will distribute ABN AMRO's line of credit, PostLine
28 Mar 08 Launched Asian property sercurities fund Collaboration with Prudential
5 Feb 08 Offered the SingPost Visa Money Transfer service First postal service provider in the world to offer Visa remittance service
22 Jan 08 New remittance service to Indonesia Collarboration with PT Bank Negara
23 Jul 08 Launched Dmrocket one-stop specialist Direct Mail service
2 Jul 07 JV with Thai British Security Printing Set up JVC to provide laser printing and enveloping statements, bills etc
4 May 07 Cooperation agreement with Hongkong Post Provide data printing, enveloping and other services
3 May 07 JV with GPN International and Oce To engage in the business of Print-On-Demand
23 Nov 06 Collaboration with Pos Indonesia Four initiatives on channelling services, remittances, logistics and direct mail
14 Nov 06 Established unit trusts distribution partnership Collaboration with Prudential Asset
29 Sep 06 Launched PostREALTY Collaboration with ERA Realty Network of Hersing
23 Jan 06 Launched Speedpost Express Premium express courier service with DHL as a partner
Strengths Weaknesses
A. Dominant position in postal services industry
B. Stable operating and free cash flows
C. Able to leverage on wide distribution network
A. Slow growth in mail volume, the mainstay business
B. Limited upside for postage rates which is also subject to IDA's approval
Opportunities Threats
A. New initiatives and diversification of services to present more opportunities
B. Potential boosts from assets
C. Direct mail a market worth focusing but may be affected in this downturn
A. Pricing pressures from increasing competition
B. Higher expenses from terminal dues revision
C. Economic downturn to affect demand
I. Financial performance and forecasts
Good 2Q09 results. In SingPost's latest 2Q09 results, group revenue grew by 4.1% YoY to S$120.7m with improved performances in all three business segments. Mail revenue rose 2.8% on the back of higher contributions from domestic, international and hybrid mail, as well as the philatelic business.
Logistics revenue increased by 6.4% due to growth in Speedpost, vPost shipping transactions as well as warehousing, fulfillment and distribution.
As for retail, revenue rose by 8.6%, driven by financial and agency services. The group's rental and property-related income grew by 39.3% to S$8.2m, boosted by higher rental income from its headquarters, the SPC.
Forecasts. We are estimating a 2.5% growth in revenue in FY09, followed by a 2.0% contraction in FY10. To recap, SingPost's revenue was flat in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/1998) but fell by 2% during the SARS period (2003). As the property and rental market weakens, we are unlikely to see a similar increase in SingPost's rental and property-related income as compared to FY08. The leases in the SPC are staggered, and about one-third of them come up for renewal every year. A check with SingPost also confirmed that lease rates are softening. Margins are prone to downward
pressures with new entrants in the industry but management said it will continue to focus on cost management measures. Easing inflation is likely to help SingPost in this area as well.
Bonds are the only borrowings. SingPost's only borrowings is its unsecured bonds of principal amount S$300m listed on the SGX-ST. The maturity period is 10 years from 11Apr 03 with fixed interest rate of 3.13% per annum. This translates to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 as of Sep 08.
There is solid cash flow protection due to its strong operating cash flows(operating CF: S$173.7m, FCF: S$160.9m in FY08). Interest coverage using EBIT/Interest gives a ratio of 16.1.
II. Valuation and recommendation
Upside potential with low refinancing risk. In view of its stable cash flows, we value the group on a discounted free cash flow to equity basis (8.8% cost of equity, 2% terminal growth), deriving a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We have adopted a beta of 0.8 instead of Bloomberg's 0.6 for a more conservative cost of equity. As our sensitivity analysis shows, even with a higher cost of equity at 9.0% or lower terminal growth of 1.5%, SingPost still has an upside potential sufficient for a BUY call. SingPost has little capital expenditure (less than 5% of revenue every year, and has been 2-3% historically) and its defensive business and strong cash flows
means it has little refinancing risk.
Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on SingPost with a BUY recommendation with a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows and dividend yield, and we think its defensive profile will serve it well during this period of economic uncertainty. Although mail volume growth may be crimped with a slowing economy and esubstitution, SingPost has launched new initiatives over the years and diversified into other business areas to pursue growth. SingPost is also asset rich, and there is always the possibility of unlocking asset values though this may be unlikely in the near future with a weakening property market. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
General Data
Issued Capital : 1,926 millions
Mkt Cap S$ 1,531 millions
Major Shareholder : SingTel (25.7%)
Free Float (%) 74.2
NTA per share (S$) 0.118
Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 4,079
52Wk High (S$) 1.180
52Wk Low (S$) 0.795
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network, SingPost also provides agency and financial services. In 1H09, the group achieved a 4.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$241.6m but incurred a 1.5% fall in net profit to S$76.9m. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit was higher by 11.5% at S$77.7m.
Should remain dominant despite liberalisation. Despite the liberalisation of the basic mail services market in Apr 07, SingPost is still in a strong position to remain as the dominant postal services operator.
Only it can hold the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates, as dictated by the Info-communications Development Authority (IDA). With other advantages like an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. SingPost has stable operating and free cash flows given the nature of its business. It has also been increasing its dividend per share since its IPO in 2003 to S$0.0625 in FY08. With the uncertainty in today's stock markets, its earnings are comparatively defensive. Although mail volume growth may be affected by e-substitution and the slowing economy, SingPost has undertaken proactive measures, as evidenced from its launched initiatives and diversification of services.
Initiate with BUY. The defensive nature of SingPost's business and its dominant market position renders it an attractive investment. Its proactive measures demonstrate its resolution to safeguard its profits, making it an even more compelling stock. Moreover, with a long list of properties under its name, SingPost may be able to unlock asset value when the time is ripe. We initiate SingPost with a BUY recommendation and S$0.93 fair value, derived from the free cash flow to equity approach (cost of equity 8.8%, terminal growth 2%). SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost
continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this would imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
I. Background in brief
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network with its post offices, self-service automated machines (SAMs) and vPost, its internet portal, SingPost provides not only postal but also agency and financial services.
II. Investment highlights
Dominant postal services operator. SingPost has been, and still is, the dominant player in the postal services industry in Singapore. Although the basic mail services market was liberalised in April 2007, SingPost still holds the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates. As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-todoor, limiting pricing flexibility. With other advantages such as an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have a limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Historically, SingPost has weathered economic downturns well, with flat revenues during the Asian financial crisis and a marginal 2% fall during the SARS crisis. This is especially relevant now given that the world is probably experiencing the worst slump since the Great Depression, with companies going through tough times in the face of falling demand and drying credit lines. SingPost has stable operating cash flows (Exhibit 1), a strong balance sheet and
dominant market position. Management has reiterated its dividend policy of a minimum of S$0.05 per share each year. Such factors render it an attractive stock given the current volatile market conditions. SingPost has also outperformed the general market over the past year in terms of share price, excluding dividends.
Opportunities for growth. SingPost has been launching new services and initiatives over the past few years, and latest ones include "ClickPost", an internet-enabled one-stop mailing solution for customers and "A.M. Mail", a time-certain service that bridges the gap between express mail and regular mail. It has also leveraged on its wide retail network via partnerships with companies such as GE Money, ERA Realty and Prudential. Direct mail (junk mail) is a segment that SingPost is targeting for growth by capturing a bigger slice of the advertising market share. According to SingPost, its current share is 4-5% of the Singapore market, while counterparts in
developed countries such as the UK enjoy about 14% of their country's market share. SingPost therefore believes it has potential to grow in this area.
Potential boosts from assets. SingPost is able to unlock value from its properties, and management has previously expressed interest in selling its flagship building, the Singapore Post Centre (SPC), next to Paya Lebar MRT Station. The group has also been selling some of its smaller properties, such as HDB shop units at Boon Lay Place and Clementi Central for S$2.8m and S$7.9m respectively. Though there are potential capital gains to be reaped from such asset sales, the likelihood of more sales, especially that of SPC, could be lower given the weakening property market. SingPost is also repurposing some of its post offices such as its Tanglin Post Office
which has been converted into a lifestyle hub with tenants such as Friven and Co, SunMoon Food Company, as well as The Wine Shop.
Sustainability amid uncertainty. In a time and age when melamine is appearing in milk and financial institutions are imploding, it is a tough call to think of entities worth entrusting our assets to today. However, SingPost is likely to appear on the list of trusted names given its consistent service quality over the years in terms of speed and reliability. It also has a history of paying out about 75-85% of its earnings and 70-80% of its free cash flow every year in the form of dividends since 2004, after its IPO in 2003. This is ideal as we prefer companies with free cash flow payout ratios below 80%, demonstrating that the firm has catered a cash cushion to maintain its dividend payments. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share.
III. Risks
Spectacular capital gains unlikely. SingPost may not be attractive to investors who are looking for spectacular capital gains, given its defensive profile. As it has outperformed the market in the past year, its share price has not plunged as much as others, so investors looking for quick gains are unlikely to be satisfied with SingPost (unless SingPost gives a special dividend when it sells its SPC building when the property market picks up).
Although management is looking at growth drivers across all its business segments, it has singled out direct mail as an area they wish to further develop. It is unlikely, however, that the direct mail market will grow substantially in the short term given the current economic downturn as companies may choose to curtail advertising costs. However SingPost may be able to capture greater market share despite the slower market growth in the short term.
Margins may deteriorate. With new entrants after the liberalisation of the basic mail services market, we expect greater margin pressure. Profit margin for 2Q09 was 31.0%, lower than 33.2% in 2Q08. As such, management will continue to focus on cost management measures to control its costs but we do note that easing inflation should help SingPost mitigate its costs.
Increase in terminal dues. The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has reclassified Singapore as a "target country" (previously known as "industrialized country") from its current category of "net contributor country" for the purpose of terminal dues settlement, with effect from 1 Jan 2010.
Singapore will have to apply the relevant terminal dues system from 2010 to 2013 and contribute to the UPU Quality of Service Fund. All this means that net terminal dues payments (dependent on type and volume of mail, and destination mix) will rise, therefore increasing SingPost's traffic expenses. SingPost said it will apply to IDA for adjustments in postage rates if necessary, but any revisions will require IDA's approval.
Other risks. Terrorist acts happen swiftly and unexpectedly, and such threats should never be disregarded. Postal and express delivery operations may be disrupted by the threat of anthrax attacks or mail bombs, whether real or hoaxes, including other terrorism-related activities. Any such incident could negatively impact SingPost's business and reputation.
Section B: Country Analysis and Macroeconomic Forces
Economic downturn will affect demand. Singapore, being the first Asian country to enter into a technical recession, is expected to contract by as much as 2% in the coming year, according to official estimates. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Singapore will be among the world's 10 slowest-growing economies in 2009, and sees it contracting by 2.2%. With such a backdrop, SingPost's businesses, especially the mail and retail segments, are likely to be affected as well:
1) Public mail has been decreasingly steadily over the years with esubstitution, while business mail volumes should decline with slower business activity. Direct mail may be impacted by lower advertising expenditure, but SingPost hopes to mitigate its slowdown by capturing greater market share, as discussed earlier.
2) SingPost's retail segment comprises agency services and retail products, as well as financial services such as remittances and unsecured lending. With a weakening real economy, people are likely to curtail their spending and decrease consumption.
Not all segments will be hit. Singapore's increasing foreign population means that foreign remittances could grow, although money remitted home could either rise (family members may need more money with the global downturn) or fall (workers may be retrenched or suffer from pay-cuts).
SingPost revealed that its main customers are from the Philippines and neighbouring countries, while Chinese and Indians form a smaller percentage. Going forward, SingPost hopes to secure more customers in the latter group to sustain the remittance business. SingPost also has six pawnshops under the SpeedCash brand. Pawnshops are normally a reliable bellweather of the state of the economy, as there is usually an increase in business with more people looking for fast ways to get cash during an economic crisis. With the economic downturn and projected rising unemployment, pawnshops are likely to benefit.
Easing inflation may mitigate cost pressures. SingPost has been experiencing cost pressures partly from rising labour costs which make up the bulk (27%) of total operating expenses in FY08. It is unlikely that wage and other costs increases will be substantial going forward given easing inflation in Singapore and the current difficult operating environment which has prompted firms to retrench workers. Fuel costs are also unlikely to spike up in the near future (barring unforeseen circumstances) with lower oil prices in light of the slowing global economy.
Section C: Industry Analysis
As revenue from the mail business made up 77% of total revenue and 81% of operating profit in FY08, we will examine this segment in greater detail.
I. Singapore's postal services sector
Slow growth in total mail volume. According to IDA, while total mail volume in Singapore enjoyed healthy growth in the 1990s, the average growth rate in recent years has slowed to about 2% a year. Despite esubstitution, SingPost experienced an increase in mail volume handled in both domestic and international mail. In the longer term, once the economy picks up, direct mail should be an important growth driver since there is still room for SingPost's business to grow. However, as we weather the current economic downturn, companies are expected to send out less direct marketing mail. As such, mail industry growth is not expected to be spectacular.
Includes domestic letters, postcards, and printed pages sent and received within Singapore, and similar categories of international mail, both inbound and outbound.
Excludes express letters and parcels.
Longest history in Singapore among the five existing firms. Although SingPost was incorporated in Mar 92, its actual history actually dates back to 1819 through its predecessors. Pursuant to a license granted by the IDA in Apr 92, SingPost was the exclusive provider of basic mail services until Mar 07. Swiss Post International Singapore was issued a postal service license only in 2007. The others were issued licenses only in 2008.
Basic mail is the only area of liberalisation. Basic mail refers to letters and postcards, excluding express letters. Under the domestic mail segment, SingPost is likely to encounter increased competition in the direct mail business, although this segment has always been open to competition.
Among the other four postal service operators, it is possible that Swiss Post International (S) and WMG may compete for market share in direct marketing services. International mail (both inbound and outbound) is also likely to face greater competition, as IDA's intention is to develop Singapore as a regional printing hub and enhance e-commerce activities.
Still has some exclusive rights. SingPost is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore, which means only it has access to letterbox masterdoor keys, and the rationale behind IDA's decision is to protect mail integrity in the public postal system and safeguard consumers' interests.
As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-to-door, limiting pricing flexibility. SingPost will also be the only one to issue national stamps and continue to be the organization representing Singapore at international and regional postal meetings.
Widening network. SingPost has also been increasing its reach to consumers over the years. Its postal network comprises post offices, stamp vendors, SAMs and postboxes. Given the nature of the business where convenience and easy access are among the main priorities of the customer, SingPost's vast distribution network ensures that it has the competitive advantage.
Degree of competition. Potential competitors are unlikely to compete aggressively in the domestic mail market considering that they have to utilize SingPost's access network since they do not hold the masterdoor keys. As such, there is limited pricing flexibility. There could be more competition in the international mail market but SingPost also has a joint venture (Spring, set up in 2001) with TNT Post and Royal Mail for the crossborder mail business. As for logistics, SingPost has admitted that this is a highly competitive business but the group said it has performed well in the past year by expanding its customer base in a variety of industries.
II. Global postal services sector
Postal service operators not spared. The financial crisis has affected postal service operators around the world, including the United States Postal Service (USPS), the biggest postal service in the world. The group posted a net loss of US$2.8b for FY08, partly due to a 9.5b decline in mail volumes to 202.7b pieces. The UK's Royal Mail has also said that its operations "face additional risk from the squeeze in the UK economy" and from businesses' and individuals' cost-cutting measures.
State of the worldwide postal sector. The postal sector is still very much relevant and certain sectors are expected to grow. According to the UPU, while growth in urgent mail is stagnating in industrialized countries, there is still "tremendous growth potential" in emerging countries. Direct mail is growing in both developed and developing countries. New technologies can be utilized as means of increasing the interconnectedness among countries and further integrating the postal offices around the world, therefore increasing the points of access for ordinary citizens.
Section D: Company Analysis
I. Business overview
SingPost has three main operating divisions: mail, logistics and retail. In the latest 2Q09 results, mail accounted for 72% of total revenue, while logistics and retail made up 15% and 13% respectively.
Public Mail
Public mail consists primarily of stamped mail and franked mail. Stamped mail is sent mainly by individuals and consists letters and postcards (excluding express letters). Volumes have been declining due to substitution by email and the Internet. Franked mail is used primarily by home offices and SMEs as a method of mailing large quantities of mail of different weights and sizes. Volumes have been declining as franked mail customers upgrade to bulk mail.
Bulk Mail
Bulk mail consists of publications, direct mail, and government and business mail. It is used as an efficient means of distributing large quantities of homogenous mail such as invoices and promotional mailings. Processing and delivery times are reduced as the customer's items and postage rates do not have to be weighed and calculated individually.
Hybrid Mail
More bulk mail is being outsourced for printing and mailing as companies focus more on their core businesses and competencies. Main customers include financial institutions, telecommunications companies, and government bodies, among others.
International Mail
There is increasing competition in the international mail market as new competitors enter previously regulated markets in the world. International mail volumes are also likely to be hit by the global economic slowdown.
Philatelic
SingPost produces commemorative and special stamps as well as other collectibles for tourists and the gift market.
Speedpost
Speedpost is a door-to-door express delivery service for documents, parcels and freight. Speedpost Islandwide is a service within Singapore, Speedpost Worldwide provides international deliveries, while Speedpost Freight transports large or heavyweight shipments.
Warehousing, fulfillment and distribution
This is a complement to Speedpost and provides business customers a one-stop logistics service. Fulfillment services include item collection, wrapping, payment collection, shipping and invoicing.
vPost (shop and ship)
vPost is SingPost's online portal that offers a range of services including shopping and shipping. Currently, customers can purchase items from certain countries in the world and have them delivered to their doorstep.
Retail
SingPost sells a wide variety of postal and non-postal products including packaging and stationery items. Customers can also pay their utility bills, taxes, fines, license fees and other contributions as organizations outsource payment administration to SingPost.
Under financial services, remittances and unsecured lending made up the bulk of this segment's revenue while post-assurance and secured lending accounted for the rest. With the credit crunch and economic downturn, SingPost's lending business may improve as banks tighten their lending.
II. Competitive positioning and corporate strategies
Emphasis on quality. Instead of merely relying on a cost leadership model, SingPost places great emphasis on service quality and worker productivity.
In FY08, SingPost continued to surpass the Quality of Serivce in mail delivery set by the IDA by achieving more than 99% delivery by the next working day for mail posted within and outside the Central Business District (CBD).
The group also achieved international recognition in the World Mail Awards (Quality category) on the basis of increased productivity, discounts to customers, lower incidence of damage and improved sorting accuracy and delivery.
Productivity increases. Postman productivity has also increased from 2,923 to 3,130 items delivered per postman per effective man-day in FY08, while productivity of mail processing officers grew from 5,765 to 6,307 items sorted per processing officer. Going forward, SingPost aims to pursue further efficiency improvements.
More effective direct mail. SingPost also has a competitive advantage based on its extensive network and proprietary database. SingPost's updated data repository and clear understanding of the whereabouts of the target audience is important in increasing the effectiveness of direct mail, as mail can be sent to targeted customer segments. This increases the response rate and cuts unnecessary spending for the corporate partner.
One-Stop-Shop service. SingPost is able to provide a one-stop service for its customers through its mail, logistics and retail divisions. The group has diversified its operations in the past few years with forays into remittances and lending services, among others. New initiatives and joint ventures have been undertaken as well, and the following exhibit illustrates some in the past 3 years.
III. SWOT analysis table
The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats with regards to SingPost have been discussed in earlier parts of the report, but just to recap:
Key JVs and initiatives in the past three years
15 Dec 08 Launched A.M. Mail Time-certain service that delivers mail by 11am the next working day
20 Oct 08 Termination of JV JV with GPN International and Oce
19 Sep 08 Added new remittance channel New channel to the Philippines through the Philppine National Bank
29 Apr 08 Collaboration with ABN AMRO SingPost will distribute ABN AMRO's line of credit, PostLine
28 Mar 08 Launched Asian property sercurities fund Collaboration with Prudential
5 Feb 08 Offered the SingPost Visa Money Transfer service First postal service provider in the world to offer Visa remittance service
22 Jan 08 New remittance service to Indonesia Collarboration with PT Bank Negara
23 Jul 08 Launched Dmrocket one-stop specialist Direct Mail service
2 Jul 07 JV with Thai British Security Printing Set up JVC to provide laser printing and enveloping statements, bills etc
4 May 07 Cooperation agreement with Hongkong Post Provide data printing, enveloping and other services
3 May 07 JV with GPN International and Oce To engage in the business of Print-On-Demand
23 Nov 06 Collaboration with Pos Indonesia Four initiatives on channelling services, remittances, logistics and direct mail
14 Nov 06 Established unit trusts distribution partnership Collaboration with Prudential Asset
29 Sep 06 Launched PostREALTY Collaboration with ERA Realty Network of Hersing
23 Jan 06 Launched Speedpost Express Premium express courier service with DHL as a partner
Strengths Weaknesses
A. Dominant position in postal services industry
B. Stable operating and free cash flows
C. Able to leverage on wide distribution network
A. Slow growth in mail volume, the mainstay business
B. Limited upside for postage rates which is also subject to IDA's approval
Opportunities Threats
A. New initiatives and diversification of services to present more opportunities
B. Potential boosts from assets
C. Direct mail a market worth focusing but may be affected in this downturn
A. Pricing pressures from increasing competition
B. Higher expenses from terminal dues revision
C. Economic downturn to affect demand
I. Financial performance and forecasts
Good 2Q09 results. In SingPost's latest 2Q09 results, group revenue grew by 4.1% YoY to S$120.7m with improved performances in all three business segments. Mail revenue rose 2.8% on the back of higher contributions from domestic, international and hybrid mail, as well as the philatelic business.
Logistics revenue increased by 6.4% due to growth in Speedpost, vPost shipping transactions as well as warehousing, fulfillment and distribution.
As for retail, revenue rose by 8.6%, driven by financial and agency services. The group's rental and property-related income grew by 39.3% to S$8.2m, boosted by higher rental income from its headquarters, the SPC.
Forecasts. We are estimating a 2.5% growth in revenue in FY09, followed by a 2.0% contraction in FY10. To recap, SingPost's revenue was flat in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/1998) but fell by 2% during the SARS period (2003). As the property and rental market weakens, we are unlikely to see a similar increase in SingPost's rental and property-related income as compared to FY08. The leases in the SPC are staggered, and about one-third of them come up for renewal every year. A check with SingPost also confirmed that lease rates are softening. Margins are prone to downward
pressures with new entrants in the industry but management said it will continue to focus on cost management measures. Easing inflation is likely to help SingPost in this area as well.
Bonds are the only borrowings. SingPost's only borrowings is its unsecured bonds of principal amount S$300m listed on the SGX-ST. The maturity period is 10 years from 11Apr 03 with fixed interest rate of 3.13% per annum. This translates to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 as of Sep 08.
There is solid cash flow protection due to its strong operating cash flows(operating CF: S$173.7m, FCF: S$160.9m in FY08). Interest coverage using EBIT/Interest gives a ratio of 16.1.
II. Valuation and recommendation
Upside potential with low refinancing risk. In view of its stable cash flows, we value the group on a discounted free cash flow to equity basis (8.8% cost of equity, 2% terminal growth), deriving a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We have adopted a beta of 0.8 instead of Bloomberg's 0.6 for a more conservative cost of equity. As our sensitivity analysis shows, even with a higher cost of equity at 9.0% or lower terminal growth of 1.5%, SingPost still has an upside potential sufficient for a BUY call. SingPost has little capital expenditure (less than 5% of revenue every year, and has been 2-3% historically) and its defensive business and strong cash flows
means it has little refinancing risk.
Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on SingPost with a BUY recommendation with a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows and dividend yield, and we think its defensive profile will serve it well during this period of economic uncertainty. Although mail volume growth may be crimped with a slowing economy and esubstitution, SingPost has launched new initiatives over the years and diversified into other business areas to pursue growth. SingPost is also asset rich, and there is always the possibility of unlocking asset values though this may be unlikely in the near future with a weakening property market. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
逆市大贏家──蔡志明親述6大投資智慧
「玩具大王」旭日國際集團主席蔡志明，上周以7億3000萬元向「大馬糖王」郭鶴年旗下的嘉里集團，買入尖東安達中心全幢，消息令疲弱的投資市場大為震動，皆因這是自金融海嘯以來最大額的成交。
他向本刊披露逆市六大投資心法，當中最重要的，是不估底，不貪高，他認為如果堅持要在最低位入市，最高位沽貨，分分鐘會錯失時機；此外，自己不熟識的投資，一定不做。
拼搏三十多年，蔡志明靠雙手建立百億玩具王國，清楚辛苦錢不易賺，他自稱是穩陣投資派，沒沾手衍生工具，「銀行不會死錯人，點會畀高息你又冇risk？」。
成功實業家的投資智慧，自然高明過人。
「我唔係叻，穩陣啫。」蔡志明對本刊強調並非未卜先知，只是多年做廠和投資經驗，令他多少洞悉經濟循環和物極必反的道理。
「我對停車場好有興趣，貪它價值上落不大，不用做宣傳，又不會有欠租等問題。去年試過跟他們(嘉里)傾，對方想賣12億，我不肯；兩、三個星期前他們再搵我，最初開價8億，大家再討價還價3、4日，結果以7億3000萬傾掂數。」蔡志明說。
雖然不少地產界人士看淡後市，蔡志明卻重鎚出擊，皆因他看中停車場的現金流，「安達中心有全尖東最大的停車場，可泊950架車，全個區的商業中心和酒店都來租位，每月收租360至370萬，回報有5至6厘。」
雖被市場人士冠以「淡市救星」稱號，但蔡志明認為，樓市才剛開始跌，這個價未算最低，但他覺得合理便拍板去馬。「只要個市跌得不是咁慘，收些租運作到就OK。明年個價或者會更低，但到時又有對手一齊跟我爭啦，而且我是長渣不是短炒，有機會等佢升。」他稱。
61歲的蔡志明，做玩具起家，其後轉戰地產界，自97年金融風暴後，他趁樓市不斷下滑，密密低價吸納優質商廈、住宅、商場及舖位，部分趁高價沽出，獲利甚豐。蔡志明目前持有的三十多個地產項目，市值超過100億元，單是停車場已有6、7個，為他提供穩定而充足的財源。
蔡志明身家估計有13億美元，令他打入今年《福布斯》香港40富豪榜。他的投資致勝之道，在於他往往在樓市低殘時敢於入市撈平貨。金融海嘯殺到埋身，人人都沒有錢時，再次為持有充足現金的實力投資者提供入市機會，蔡志明向本刊獨家披露6大逆市投資智慧：
不估底
蔡志明認為，買物業是長線投資，他選擇投資對象時，亦會揀自己喜歡的物業，價錢滿意便會買入，而不會等物業跌至最低價。
「幾個月前有基金想出貨賣九龍城廣場，那裡共62萬呎地方，我出價14億8000萬，計落只是二千多元一呎，成本同自己起樓差不多，所以買得好舒服。」他說。
據了解，蔡志明3年前曾向大摩為首的財團出價洽購九龍城廣場，最初業主叫價18億元，雙方討價還價好一段日子，蔡志明近期成功以平價買到心頭好。以該商場現時每月租金700萬元計算，蔡志明穩袋6厘回報。
蔡志明與長居美國的哥哥亦有涉足當地的樓市，其中一項最成功的投資，就是趁樓價跌，專揀未完工的銀主盤去買，「美國有規定，銀行收樓後要在1年內賣出，我們平價買回來後會花錢埋尾，然後租出去，都有2成回報，幾年就有10倍、8倍回報。」
不貪頂
蔡志明投資屬穩陣派，經常有買入無賣出。不過，他去年直覺覺得本港樓市、股市已「去到好高」，於是一口氣沽了7個物業，套現32億元。現在回看，他沽貨的時機拿捏得相當準。
「我相信物極必反，世界經濟皆有循環，以前是4年一個循環，現在6、7年、10年，愈來愈長。去年恆指上到30000點時，我完全不敢入市，根本超乎實際，當時不知今年(經濟)會差，但我不想欠銀行太多錢，所以沽了7件貨還錢給銀行。」蔡志明說。
去年他沽貨時，最常聽到的一句話是：「咁快就賣？個價仲有得高喎！」例如中環鱷魚恤大廈賣出後，市價仍繼續向上，但蔡志明一於少理，皆因他相信「不要去得太盡」，「我不貪心，升一倍不走，明年可能打回原形，咪空歡喜一場？」
蔡 志明前年在美國曼克頓市也賣了8間地舖，「成本1億，現在賺一個double，其實不是咩預感，我不知個市況，但覺得價啱就賣。如果一直冇賣，去年就變了 冇賺，今年仲要倒蝕！」他笑說，做廠對他預測經濟循環都有幫助，「我會睇歐美的定單走勢，當定單由好勇變成一『水』都要分3次落單，或者數期拖長，都是銀 根抽緊的跡象。」
識計風險 不信高回報
蔡志明擁有很多物業，持有的股票相對較少，除2003年入股「位元堂」外，目前只持有愛女蔡加怡擔任主席的康健國際，以及富豪酒店的股票，他說帳面虧損了10億、8億元。
「我是長渣的，基本上不賣，至於其他衍生工具，我完全冇掂。早排大摩經常搵我和我的財務總監，叫我買Accumulator，但我心諗，銀行邊有咁好死，畀咁多息你又冇risk？他們咁多專家計數，實冇死錯人，好彩冇事就搵少少，唔好彩就大件事啦。」
「我曾跟朋友講，邊有咁大隻蛤乸隨街跳？當時仲畀人鬧，話全世界都玩緊，咁先發達的！」他續稱。
蔡志明完全不為Accumulator所動，全因他在1973年受過畢生難忘的教訓。剛開了玩具廠的他，辛苦賺來20萬元，聽人講買了置地的股票，「那時第一次買股票，完全是散戶心態，股價跌了唔肯走，升又唔肯賣，結果73年股災畀佢瀉到乜都冇。
「那筆錢應該拿來發展間廠，買多兩部機器，我好後悔，咁辛苦搵錢，點知變了廢紙，從此我好少買股票，有錢賺就沽。」
去年股市牛氣沖天，有不少富豪被「氹」買了Accumulator等高風險衍生工具，就算純買股票，一樣輸到喊，「有些人市旺時成日講股票，話今日又賺了100萬，現在都唔係幾出聲，我亦唔會問，但我想他們都不會輸到破產，都係唔見啲咁啦。」
保持良好信貸紀錄
蔡志明近年大舉投資物業市場原因之一，是玩具行業很容易受全球經濟影響，令定單時多時少。假如公司有物業收租，財政收入會較穩定，亦可保住一班員工。
無論做廠或購買物業，少不免要與銀行交手，蔡志明去年便選擇清還銀行債務，保持良好信貸紀錄。
「如果不是欠銀行錢，我未必會咁積極賣樓，但我不想孭住條數，萬一個市跌就好麻煩，餘下的錢就投資到韶關，興建全球最大的玩具廠。」他說。
今年不少銀行收緊信貸，但正因為蔡志明欠銀行的款項已還得七七八八，銀行自然願意借錢給他，協助蔡志明繼續在低位撈貨。
不賣鍾情物業
蔡志明特別留意與自己有感情的物業，好像安達中心，他以前經常來這裡見客，不時光顧該停車場，「當時個場好多車，成日要上去好高層先搵到位泊車。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
不沾手陌生投資
他的兒子去年從美國回來時，亦曾跟朋友「細細哋玩吓」，蔡志明並無禁止，卻留意到兒子在公司開會時偷瞄股票機。
「他說買甚麼Put輪，我完全不知道是甚麼，但我跟他講，你來公司學習，但你的注意力放晒落投資，會學藝不精。他好乖，一個月後食飯時，攞了部股票機出來，跟我講以後收埋不玩了。」他說，結果金融海嘯殺到，兒子投資沒有損手，還說：「老竇，都係你好嘢。」
本港經濟未見底
蔡志明的客戶遍及歐美，對全球經濟脈搏掌握得比普通人多，他亦向本刊分享他對多國聯手救市及本港投資市場前景的看法。
蔡志明認為，金融海嘯跟97年金融風暴不同之處，在於多國很快便決定救市，令投資者以為有希望，盡量去守。「我相信中國政府救市會OK，經濟慢慢會穩定些， 但歐美是否救到則是疑問。中國以出口為主，歐美市民冇購買力，定貨減少就影響中國，內地失業率上升，市民就冇錢買樓和消費。」他稱。
他的本行玩具業更是首當其衝的行業之一，中小型工廠已面對接單困難，廣東省萬多間玩具廠當中，至少會有三分一執笠。
「玩具業未來幾年全球定單會減少，加上內地實施了《勞動法》，工人好易扭計，客戶又不肯加價，中小型工廠的生意好難做，對玩具業影響好大。」蔡志明說，不過因為一些細廠倒閉，近期他的工廠定單不跌反升，相信明年亦可維持賺到利潤。
當大多數意見均認為，經濟轉差會令父母減少買玩具給小朋友，蔡志明卻提出另一套理論：「我又不是太悲觀，玩具始終要買，但家長會揀平價的，在沙士期間，玩具銷量根本冇跌到。」
「在別人最冇錢時入貨」
至於本港經濟，他認為現時仍未見底，未到遍地平貨的時候，「今次金融海嘯來得好急好厲害，不少人輸錢，但97年時多些人受影響，涉及層面亦廣些。」
蔡志明預計，明年及後年的經濟或會繼續差，「我最擔心係，雖然中國救到市，但歐美唔得，中國頂得一陣就被拖累。中國是世界工廠，如果冇工開，你話經濟掂唔掂？」
他又認為，歐美經濟至少3年後才能復甦。那麼本港投資者何時才適合買樓、買股票？蔡志明謹慎地說：「當別人最冇錢的時候，市場才會有平貨執，那時才是入市的時機。」
激讚女兒「唔肯走」
蔡志明教人「買股票要識得走」，但女兒一次「唔肯走」的堅持，令蔡志明十分欣賞。
蔡加怡2006年加入康健集團並當上主席，蔡志明給了女兒400萬元買入康健的股票，「市旺時個價曾升了10倍，我勸她賣多少套回本金，女兒卻說，作為公司主席，如果她賣股票，股民會以為隻股票唔好。
「現在跌剩幾十萬囉，但加怡說無後悔，仲話：『我要話畀全香港人知道，我蔡加怡係做嘢，唔係炒股票的。』」加怡做實事的態度，令這個當爸爸的十分欣慰。
做玩具大王
因為小時候好少玩具，蔡志明立志長大了要做玩具這一行。預科畢業後，他當上玩具廠推銷員，「原本打算去多倫多大學讀書，但母親說仔女全都到外面去了，剛巧她有朋友做玩具廠，就去學嘢，和留下來多些陪她。」3年後才往英國修讀機械工程。
畢業後他和友人合資成立旭日實業，後來朋友退股，他咬緊牙關捱過沒錢賺的日子，憑著獨到眼光，主動聯絡經營史諾比玩具的生產商，寧讓人家賺多點利潤，也要爭取合作，得到對方信任，生意愈來愈大。
在工業界拼搏超過30年，蔡志明說，40歲之前做得十分辛苦，大小事務一腳踢，「貨多時，我都要幫手將玩具入箱，試過累得蜷在箱內睡着了，早上醒來又再入過。近年生意上了軌道，才多了出去玩，去吓ball。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
他向本刊披露逆市六大投資心法，當中最重要的，是不估底，不貪高，他認為如果堅持要在最低位入市，最高位沽貨，分分鐘會錯失時機；此外，自己不熟識的投資，一定不做。
拼搏三十多年，蔡志明靠雙手建立百億玩具王國，清楚辛苦錢不易賺，他自稱是穩陣投資派，沒沾手衍生工具，「銀行不會死錯人，點會畀高息你又冇risk？」。
成功實業家的投資智慧，自然高明過人。
「我唔係叻，穩陣啫。」蔡志明對本刊強調並非未卜先知，只是多年做廠和投資經驗，令他多少洞悉經濟循環和物極必反的道理。
「我對停車場好有興趣，貪它價值上落不大，不用做宣傳，又不會有欠租等問題。去年試過跟他們(嘉里)傾，對方想賣12億，我不肯；兩、三個星期前他們再搵我，最初開價8億，大家再討價還價3、4日，結果以7億3000萬傾掂數。」蔡志明說。
雖然不少地產界人士看淡後市，蔡志明卻重鎚出擊，皆因他看中停車場的現金流，「安達中心有全尖東最大的停車場，可泊950架車，全個區的商業中心和酒店都來租位，每月收租360至370萬，回報有5至6厘。」
雖被市場人士冠以「淡市救星」稱號，但蔡志明認為，樓市才剛開始跌，這個價未算最低，但他覺得合理便拍板去馬。「只要個市跌得不是咁慘，收些租運作到就OK。明年個價或者會更低，但到時又有對手一齊跟我爭啦，而且我是長渣不是短炒，有機會等佢升。」他稱。
61歲的蔡志明，做玩具起家，其後轉戰地產界，自97年金融風暴後，他趁樓市不斷下滑，密密低價吸納優質商廈、住宅、商場及舖位，部分趁高價沽出，獲利甚豐。蔡志明目前持有的三十多個地產項目，市值超過100億元，單是停車場已有6、7個，為他提供穩定而充足的財源。
蔡志明身家估計有13億美元，令他打入今年《福布斯》香港40富豪榜。他的投資致勝之道，在於他往往在樓市低殘時敢於入市撈平貨。金融海嘯殺到埋身，人人都沒有錢時，再次為持有充足現金的實力投資者提供入市機會，蔡志明向本刊獨家披露6大逆市投資智慧：
不估底
蔡志明認為，買物業是長線投資，他選擇投資對象時，亦會揀自己喜歡的物業，價錢滿意便會買入，而不會等物業跌至最低價。
「幾個月前有基金想出貨賣九龍城廣場，那裡共62萬呎地方，我出價14億8000萬，計落只是二千多元一呎，成本同自己起樓差不多，所以買得好舒服。」他說。
據了解，蔡志明3年前曾向大摩為首的財團出價洽購九龍城廣場，最初業主叫價18億元，雙方討價還價好一段日子，蔡志明近期成功以平價買到心頭好。以該商場現時每月租金700萬元計算，蔡志明穩袋6厘回報。
蔡志明與長居美國的哥哥亦有涉足當地的樓市，其中一項最成功的投資，就是趁樓價跌，專揀未完工的銀主盤去買，「美國有規定，銀行收樓後要在1年內賣出，我們平價買回來後會花錢埋尾，然後租出去，都有2成回報，幾年就有10倍、8倍回報。」
不貪頂
蔡志明投資屬穩陣派，經常有買入無賣出。不過，他去年直覺覺得本港樓市、股市已「去到好高」，於是一口氣沽了7個物業，套現32億元。現在回看，他沽貨的時機拿捏得相當準。
「我相信物極必反，世界經濟皆有循環，以前是4年一個循環，現在6、7年、10年，愈來愈長。去年恆指上到30000點時，我完全不敢入市，根本超乎實際，當時不知今年(經濟)會差，但我不想欠銀行太多錢，所以沽了7件貨還錢給銀行。」蔡志明說。
去年他沽貨時，最常聽到的一句話是：「咁快就賣？個價仲有得高喎！」例如中環鱷魚恤大廈賣出後，市價仍繼續向上，但蔡志明一於少理，皆因他相信「不要去得太盡」，「我不貪心，升一倍不走，明年可能打回原形，咪空歡喜一場？」
蔡 志明前年在美國曼克頓市也賣了8間地舖，「成本1億，現在賺一個double，其實不是咩預感，我不知個市況，但覺得價啱就賣。如果一直冇賣，去年就變了 冇賺，今年仲要倒蝕！」他笑說，做廠對他預測經濟循環都有幫助，「我會睇歐美的定單走勢，當定單由好勇變成一『水』都要分3次落單，或者數期拖長，都是銀 根抽緊的跡象。」
識計風險 不信高回報
蔡志明擁有很多物業，持有的股票相對較少，除2003年入股「位元堂」外，目前只持有愛女蔡加怡擔任主席的康健國際，以及富豪酒店的股票，他說帳面虧損了10億、8億元。
「我是長渣的，基本上不賣，至於其他衍生工具，我完全冇掂。早排大摩經常搵我和我的財務總監，叫我買Accumulator，但我心諗，銀行邊有咁好死，畀咁多息你又冇risk？他們咁多專家計數，實冇死錯人，好彩冇事就搵少少，唔好彩就大件事啦。」
「我曾跟朋友講，邊有咁大隻蛤乸隨街跳？當時仲畀人鬧，話全世界都玩緊，咁先發達的！」他續稱。
蔡志明完全不為Accumulator所動，全因他在1973年受過畢生難忘的教訓。剛開了玩具廠的他，辛苦賺來20萬元，聽人講買了置地的股票，「那時第一次買股票，完全是散戶心態，股價跌了唔肯走，升又唔肯賣，結果73年股災畀佢瀉到乜都冇。
「那筆錢應該拿來發展間廠，買多兩部機器，我好後悔，咁辛苦搵錢，點知變了廢紙，從此我好少買股票，有錢賺就沽。」
去年股市牛氣沖天，有不少富豪被「氹」買了Accumulator等高風險衍生工具，就算純買股票，一樣輸到喊，「有些人市旺時成日講股票，話今日又賺了100萬，現在都唔係幾出聲，我亦唔會問，但我想他們都不會輸到破產，都係唔見啲咁啦。」
保持良好信貸紀錄
蔡志明近年大舉投資物業市場原因之一，是玩具行業很容易受全球經濟影響，令定單時多時少。假如公司有物業收租，財政收入會較穩定，亦可保住一班員工。
無論做廠或購買物業，少不免要與銀行交手，蔡志明去年便選擇清還銀行債務，保持良好信貸紀錄。
「如果不是欠銀行錢，我未必會咁積極賣樓，但我不想孭住條數，萬一個市跌就好麻煩，餘下的錢就投資到韶關，興建全球最大的玩具廠。」他說。
今年不少銀行收緊信貸，但正因為蔡志明欠銀行的款項已還得七七八八，銀行自然願意借錢給他，協助蔡志明繼續在低位撈貨。
不賣鍾情物業
蔡志明特別留意與自己有感情的物業，好像安達中心，他以前經常來這裡見客，不時光顧該停車場，「當時個場好多車，成日要上去好高層先搵到位泊車。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
不沾手陌生投資
他的兒子去年從美國回來時，亦曾跟朋友「細細哋玩吓」，蔡志明並無禁止，卻留意到兒子在公司開會時偷瞄股票機。
「他說買甚麼Put輪，我完全不知道是甚麼，但我跟他講，你來公司學習，但你的注意力放晒落投資，會學藝不精。他好乖，一個月後食飯時，攞了部股票機出來，跟我講以後收埋不玩了。」他說，結果金融海嘯殺到，兒子投資沒有損手，還說：「老竇，都係你好嘢。」
本港經濟未見底
蔡志明的客戶遍及歐美，對全球經濟脈搏掌握得比普通人多，他亦向本刊分享他對多國聯手救市及本港投資市場前景的看法。
蔡志明認為，金融海嘯跟97年金融風暴不同之處，在於多國很快便決定救市，令投資者以為有希望，盡量去守。「我相信中國政府救市會OK，經濟慢慢會穩定些， 但歐美是否救到則是疑問。中國以出口為主，歐美市民冇購買力，定貨減少就影響中國，內地失業率上升，市民就冇錢買樓和消費。」他稱。
他的本行玩具業更是首當其衝的行業之一，中小型工廠已面對接單困難，廣東省萬多間玩具廠當中，至少會有三分一執笠。
「玩具業未來幾年全球定單會減少，加上內地實施了《勞動法》，工人好易扭計，客戶又不肯加價，中小型工廠的生意好難做，對玩具業影響好大。」蔡志明說，不過因為一些細廠倒閉，近期他的工廠定單不跌反升，相信明年亦可維持賺到利潤。
當大多數意見均認為，經濟轉差會令父母減少買玩具給小朋友，蔡志明卻提出另一套理論：「我又不是太悲觀，玩具始終要買，但家長會揀平價的，在沙士期間，玩具銷量根本冇跌到。」
「在別人最冇錢時入貨」
至於本港經濟，他認為現時仍未見底，未到遍地平貨的時候，「今次金融海嘯來得好急好厲害，不少人輸錢，但97年時多些人受影響，涉及層面亦廣些。」
蔡志明預計，明年及後年的經濟或會繼續差，「我最擔心係，雖然中國救到市，但歐美唔得，中國頂得一陣就被拖累。中國是世界工廠，如果冇工開，你話經濟掂唔掂？」
他又認為，歐美經濟至少3年後才能復甦。那麼本港投資者何時才適合買樓、買股票？蔡志明謹慎地說：「當別人最冇錢的時候，市場才會有平貨執，那時才是入市的時機。」
激讚女兒「唔肯走」
蔡志明教人「買股票要識得走」，但女兒一次「唔肯走」的堅持，令蔡志明十分欣賞。
蔡加怡2006年加入康健集團並當上主席，蔡志明給了女兒400萬元買入康健的股票，「市旺時個價曾升了10倍，我勸她賣多少套回本金，女兒卻說，作為公司主席，如果她賣股票，股民會以為隻股票唔好。
「現在跌剩幾十萬囉，但加怡說無後悔，仲話：『我要話畀全香港人知道，我蔡加怡係做嘢，唔係炒股票的。』」加怡做實事的態度，令這個當爸爸的十分欣慰。
做玩具大王
因為小時候好少玩具，蔡志明立志長大了要做玩具這一行。預科畢業後，他當上玩具廠推銷員，「原本打算去多倫多大學讀書，但母親說仔女全都到外面去了，剛巧她有朋友做玩具廠，就去學嘢，和留下來多些陪她。」3年後才往英國修讀機械工程。
畢業後他和友人合資成立旭日實業，後來朋友退股，他咬緊牙關捱過沒錢賺的日子，憑著獨到眼光，主動聯絡經營史諾比玩具的生產商，寧讓人家賺多點利潤，也要爭取合作，得到對方信任，生意愈來愈大。
在工業界拼搏超過30年，蔡志明說，40歲之前做得十分辛苦，大小事務一腳踢，「貨多時，我都要幫手將玩具入箱，試過累得蜷在箱內睡着了，早上醒來又再入過。近年生意上了軌道，才多了出去玩，去吓ball。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
陶朱公智慧与逆向投资
被巴菲特等投资大师开涮最多的一种动物叫旅鼠。这种动物出名在自杀式的季节性迁徙。“旅鼠故事”说的就是，一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对此老巴还有句妙语：当惯性起作用的时候，理性通常会萎缩。
可在从众方面，人其实比旅鼠好不到哪儿去。
老巴说他非常迷惑，华尔街有那么多受过良好教育、经验丰富的职业投资家，但证券市场上却没有因此而形成更多逻辑和理智的力量。市场总是在从众和随大流中实现着一次又一次的轮回。
其实在中国最古老的财富智慧中，对此早有解析。春秋时代的陶朱公，也就是助越王勾践一战灭吴的大智者范蠡，堪称历史上弃政从商的鼻祖和开创个人致富纪录的典范。《史记》中载“累十九年三致金，财聚巨万”，靠的是什么呢？不能不佩服陶朱公的经商头脑。在当时那个年代他就能根据市场的供求关系，判断价格的涨落，即“论其（商品）有余和不足，则知（价格）贵贱。”他发现价格涨落有个极限，即贵到极点后就会下落；贱到极点后就会上涨，出现“一贵一贱，极而复反”的规律。他进而提出一套“积贮之理”。这就是在物价便宜时，要大量收进。他说“贱取如珠玉”，即像重视珠玉那样重视降价的物品，尽量买进存贮起来。等到涨价之后，就尽量卖出。“贵出如粪土”，即像抛弃粪土那样毫不可惜地尽数抛出。
按照陶朱公的理论，金木水火之年轮流循环，具有很强的周期性，于是陶朱公就在丰收的金年里低价收购粮食，在歉收及饥馑的年景里陆续售出，同时购入木材。到了火年时节遭逢大旱，道路平整易于车辆奔行，所以造车的利润很高，而陶朱公却反其道而行之，将他收购来的木材全部用来造船。正当人们讥笑他不识时务的时候，旱年之后随之就是大洪涝，别的商人措手不及，根本没有时间临时改车造船，而陶朱公家里事先造好的船只，则是以很高的价格一售而空。
财富的智慧往往在于另辟蹊径。旱时造船，涝时却造车，体现的是逆向思维。时至今日，这些财富哲思经历了近三千年之久的岁月洗练，越发明晰而显出其卓见真知。
巴菲特的名言“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”，也有异曲同工之妙。或许是一种必然，凡投资大师血液里都有逆向投资的基因，这也暗合了这样一个规律，那就是在投资（投机）这个行业中，绝大多数人最终都必须成为失败者，面对这样的残酷，唯有远离大众思维，才能加大胜出的概率。
斯宾诺沙有一句哲学名言：“从灾难的观点出发去发现价值”，可是，当灾难真正来临的时候，有多少人不会陷入灾难的恐惧中，甚至会自然不自然地传播恐惧？事实证明，当灾难远去的时候，人们才会恍然大悟。拿价值投资者最为看重的安全边际来说，没有坏消息、坏事情的伴随，怎能会轻易出现？可是摆脱从众思维对任何人来说殊非易事。
公认的逆向投资高手邓普顿当年为了避税以及远离华尔街的噪音，宣布放弃美国国籍，长居巴哈马。因为他觉得，如果一直待在曼哈顿，所见的人、所谈的事和其他人一模一样，要想进行逆向操作就变得无比困难。与其他投资理念相比，逆向投资更显知易行难，度的把握也更具艺术性。某种意义上说，逆向投资实际上是一种心理博弈过程，是比谁的心理更稳定，谁更理性，谁更能战胜自我，而战胜自我却是最难、最需要修炼的事情。
可在从众方面，人其实比旅鼠好不到哪儿去。
老巴说他非常迷惑，华尔街有那么多受过良好教育、经验丰富的职业投资家，但证券市场上却没有因此而形成更多逻辑和理智的力量。市场总是在从众和随大流中实现着一次又一次的轮回。
其实在中国最古老的财富智慧中，对此早有解析。春秋时代的陶朱公，也就是助越王勾践一战灭吴的大智者范蠡，堪称历史上弃政从商的鼻祖和开创个人致富纪录的典范。《史记》中载“累十九年三致金，财聚巨万”，靠的是什么呢？不能不佩服陶朱公的经商头脑。在当时那个年代他就能根据市场的供求关系，判断价格的涨落，即“论其（商品）有余和不足，则知（价格）贵贱。”他发现价格涨落有个极限，即贵到极点后就会下落；贱到极点后就会上涨，出现“一贵一贱，极而复反”的规律。他进而提出一套“积贮之理”。这就是在物价便宜时，要大量收进。他说“贱取如珠玉”，即像重视珠玉那样重视降价的物品，尽量买进存贮起来。等到涨价之后，就尽量卖出。“贵出如粪土”，即像抛弃粪土那样毫不可惜地尽数抛出。
按照陶朱公的理论，金木水火之年轮流循环，具有很强的周期性，于是陶朱公就在丰收的金年里低价收购粮食，在歉收及饥馑的年景里陆续售出，同时购入木材。到了火年时节遭逢大旱，道路平整易于车辆奔行，所以造车的利润很高，而陶朱公却反其道而行之，将他收购来的木材全部用来造船。正当人们讥笑他不识时务的时候，旱年之后随之就是大洪涝，别的商人措手不及，根本没有时间临时改车造船，而陶朱公家里事先造好的船只，则是以很高的价格一售而空。
财富的智慧往往在于另辟蹊径。旱时造船，涝时却造车，体现的是逆向思维。时至今日，这些财富哲思经历了近三千年之久的岁月洗练，越发明晰而显出其卓见真知。
巴菲特的名言“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”，也有异曲同工之妙。或许是一种必然，凡投资大师血液里都有逆向投资的基因，这也暗合了这样一个规律，那就是在投资（投机）这个行业中，绝大多数人最终都必须成为失败者，面对这样的残酷，唯有远离大众思维，才能加大胜出的概率。
斯宾诺沙有一句哲学名言：“从灾难的观点出发去发现价值”，可是，当灾难真正来临的时候，有多少人不会陷入灾难的恐惧中，甚至会自然不自然地传播恐惧？事实证明，当灾难远去的时候，人们才会恍然大悟。拿价值投资者最为看重的安全边际来说，没有坏消息、坏事情的伴随，怎能会轻易出现？可是摆脱从众思维对任何人来说殊非易事。
公认的逆向投资高手邓普顿当年为了避税以及远离华尔街的噪音，宣布放弃美国国籍，长居巴哈马。因为他觉得，如果一直待在曼哈顿，所见的人、所谈的事和其他人一模一样，要想进行逆向操作就变得无比困难。与其他投资理念相比，逆向投资更显知易行难，度的把握也更具艺术性。某种意义上说，逆向投资实际上是一种心理博弈过程，是比谁的心理更稳定，谁更理性，谁更能战胜自我，而战胜自我却是最难、最需要修炼的事情。
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