SOME FUND managers and analysts – at least those I have met - are so young they couldn’t have lived through, at various times, a bull market and a crash. When a mutual friend introduced me to fund manager Randy Kwei, I knew he was an exception.
He looked to be in his mid- to late 50s. Over dinner at IndoChine by the Singapore River, he let on that he had long sailed past our estimated range. But he didn’t want to be more specific than that.
Randy, who is based in Hong Kong and has an interest in Singapore stocks, acknowledged, not without a glint of pleasure, that many people have told him that he looked far younger than his age. The inevitable question we had in double-quick time was: What’s your anti-aging secret?
Part of the answer had quietly emerged as he flipped through the menu and ordered a vegetarian dish as his main course, rather than some fat-dripping red meat. Randy is a vegetarian. And, as he explained, he is blessed by that ultimate influence on one’s longevity: genes. His father lived past 90 and his mother lived till aged 88.
His own athletic pursuits from an early age have contributed in no small part to his relative youth and vitality today. He picked up tennis more than 30 years ago, and has been playing regularly ever since. Through hiking and skiing over many years, he has enjoyed the great outdoors while living in the United States. He still goes skiing whenever he can when he is overseas.
His gym routine includes lifting weights, working on the Nordic track, running on the treadmill, toning his body, arms, knees and leg muscles. To supplement the workout, he takes up Iyenga yoga to soothe his nerves when they are frayed by market volatility.
“It was in 1998 during the tail end of the Asian financial crisis that I sought an exercise that would calm me down as markets lost altitude. I was diagnosed with high blood pressure – the result of the high level of stress I had to deal with every day.”
Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan is where Randy goes on an annual retreat. Photo: Internet
His annual yoga retreat has taken him to exotic locations, including hiking up to the famous Taktshang Monastery in Bhutan which is perched on a mountain cliff about 3,000 meters above sea level.
The fund that he manages has tested interesting heights too. Over the past 10 turbulent years, it delivered a compounded return of 12 per cent per year. “Since inception in 1994, the fund has outperformed the regional benchmark by over 100 per cent. It’s a track record that I am very proud of,” he said.
He is proud also of his daughter, Kathy, who owns a fledgling handbag business bearing her name and which has received orders from such established high-end fashion powerhouses as Neimen Marcus and Nordstrom in the States, and Saks in the Middle East.
His son, Clarence, is the executive producer for both the People.com and the EW.com on-line magazines, which are the most popular weekly publications in the US.
When did you start investing and what led to that?
I started investing professionally back in 1987, six months before the US market crashed. It was my third career change – after information technology and banking. For several years before that, I was running a small Indonesian-based finance company in Hong Kong. You may recall that there was a banking crisis in 1985 in Hong Kong when bank funding of finance companies virtually dried up. I was looking for another source of revenue and I was attracted to the investment business.
What is the name of your fund, what is the value of its assets under management, its investment focus and, broadly speaking, who are your investors?
The fund’s name is JK Asian Invest, L.P. This fund’s size was about US$48 million going into 2008 but it has since declined due to the market downturn. Fortunately, we have not had any redemption through the turmoil. We focus our investing in the Asia ex-Japan region with prime weightings in Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
We are basically bottom-up stock pickers, seeking absolute return by investing in growth companies with world-class qualities at a sensible value. We use hedging to lower volatility. Our investors are US private families and endowment funds.
In terms of markets and industries, what are the key ones for your fund currently?
We are currently very much cashed up and hedged. In this unprecedented bear market which is still unfolding, we are very cautious and therefore are underweight in all markets and sectors against the regional benchmark.
Over the years, how has your investment approach changed?
My approach in research has been to try to find out as much about a company as possible. On top of the list of due diligence questions would be the background of the management team and the controlling owner. Then, I would want to understand the company’s competitive advantages, its market positioning, its earnings growth history and the strength of its balance sheet.
Of course, we are paid to look ahead and we need to have a good sense of the company’s sustainable growth prospect. The result of our careful work has produced a portfolio wherein its core holdings have an average holding period of four years. Finding fundamentally attractive companies is one of the two ingredients in a fund manager’s work.
Emerging markets are notoriously volatile such that a successful manager has to manage his portfolio actively in response to volatility, whether in a bull market or a bear market. Since I am very cautious, our fund generally produces a lot higher alpha in a down market than in an up market. I haven’t changed my approach of managing investments over the years.
What are two or three best experiences you have had in investing?
In private equity, my most successful as well as challenging project was to support the management buyout of Flex Inc in exchange for a controlling stake in the new entity which we named Flextronics Ltd. The entire transaction which was the largest buyout ever in Asia up to that time amounted to US$50 million, half of which was provided by bank financing. The re-organized firm has since developed into one of the leading electronics manufacturing service companies in the world.
In public equity investing, my best experience has been to buy in the middle of the Asian financial crisis in 1998 when one could scoop up solid companies at less than their book value. One of these was Lotte Chilsung, a leading non-alcoholic beverage maker in South Korea.
The stock was trading at less than book value and P/E of around 4X. Its business was unaffected by the financial meltdown in Korea and it was enjoying solid earnings growth. We bought the stock at 40,000 won per share and sold it four years later at around 600,000 won per share.
What have you done in the last six months as the market slumped?
I have been adding to hedges and selling stocks that had low earnings visibility. In September 2007 I had turned cautious and begun to raise cash so that by the end of the year, our fund had 16 percent of its assets in cash and hedges. Beginning in January 2008, Asian markets kept going down. I continued raising cash and hedges so that, by the end of August, the fund had 42 per cent of its assets hedged. Still, our fund has performed poorly this year even though it has beat the benchmark by a pretty wide margin.
What have you been telling your clients recently?
Hold onto to your cash. It is probably too late to sell but also a little too early to buy. Need to be patient. Looking beyond the valley, Asia is where one would want to overweight his equity commitment.
What has been a great (relatively speaking, of course) stock for you in the past six months?
I have been selling, not buying. No great idea at the moment.
Given whatever is currently known out there, what is your best guess for when Asian markets will hit bottom and recover?
I do not wish to hazard a guess. There are too many unknown factors that make any guess meaningless.
What are some lessons which you draw from the unfolding crisis in the US?
The global financial crisis stemmed from the real estate bust that began in 2006 in the US. However, the real culprits are easy money, a belief in a free market without adequate supervision and regulation, and unprecedented use of leverage to gain short-term profit while times were good. To me, the lesson that should be quite clear is that regulations should cover every sector that is connected to banking and finance industries, including rating agencies, auditing firms and exchanges.
We have learned that the so-called “financial engineering” innovation is nothing more than finding ways to create leverage without disclosing its true risks to investors. The sad truth is, when businesses cannot enjoy organic growth, some “quick buck” smart financial types will resort to leverage to produce “artificial” earnings growth. The period of use of excessive leverage and easy money is now over, but the cost of de-leveraging has caused horrendous damage to the global financial landscape that in turn will cause economic pain.
You would have met many fellow fund managers over a long period of time. What differentiates a great investor from the rest?
A great investor can come in different shapes and shades. Nevertheless, I think he is likely to be someone who has been able to deliver long term return with low volatility, in good times and bad. He is also likely to be someone who doesn’t look for extraordinary performance by riding on the waves of a particular business cycle.
Over a long and rich life, how has your attitude towards money changed?
I have learned that making a decent return on one’s money takes lots of discipline and requires one to understand what he is to commit to before making the commitment. My philosophy in equity investing is never to allocate more capital into an asset class than I can afford to lose. Think long term and try not to get trapped in the hottest ideas at the moment.
I consider making a return to capital as intrinsically important to social progress, because progress demands funding which in turn can only be harnessed if the original capital has grown in value.
How do you intend to lead the rest of your life?
I’d continue doing what I enjoy and that is working on my job to create value for my clients in the long run. I still put in a 10-hour day, although, at times, I take a 10-minute nap in the Hong Kong Club after lunch. I work at least six days a week and am often in the office for a couple of hours on Sundays. I travel quite a bit, typically one trip a month in the region, visiting companies or attending corporate conferences.
When I get together with friends from the US, all of whom have retired, I am often asked when I would join retire. My answer, as always, was that I wouldn’t, unless my health would not permit me to continue working. No, I don’t think I am a driven person. I simply enjoy my work. I have been blessed with good health and good spirit and these gifts should not be wasted in leisure and self-serving activities.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
DBS VICKERS' Fire Sale report
DBS Vickers’ “Regional Equity Strategy 1Q 2009” report was titled Fire Sale.
It said the Singapore market is oversold, and poised for a rebound on cheap valuations.
But uncertainties continue to lurk amidst a tough operating environment, as recession hits and job cuts continue to rise.
“The bears will prevail in 2009, and we expect the STI to trade within a band of 1250 to 2100 as it base-builds towards a more convincing recovery in 2010.”
Excerpts from the report:
Singapore's forward PE is now at the level when it was hit by the Asian financial crisis.
Post the meltdown in October 2008, the market is cheap by all measures. At current levels of 1740, forward PE of 11x is close to the regional crisis low and dividend yields of 5.2% has surpassed previous lows of 3.5%. An expansionary budget to be unveiled inJanuary 2009, coupled with optimism over Obama’s fiscal measures to boost theUS economy are key catalysts for the rebound in 1Q09.
The economy is not out of the woods yet, and bad news from the corporate sector will cap performance. We expect the STI to trade within a range of 1450 to 2180. The low end of the range reflects a P/B of 0.9x, which is -2 standard deviations from the mean.
This is consistent with recession year valuations.
Stick to survivors of the fittest with the tenacity to ride through this recession.These will be companies backed by relatively resilient earnings, strong cashflows, and cashed-up balance sheet. They are in a favourable position to acquire cheap assets as deflation runs its course into 2009. Our preferred picks are SMRT, SIA Engineering, SPH and ST Engineering.
We would sell asset plays including property and shipping companies on the rebound, as the process of de-leveraging will lead to asset devaluation in 2009. Distressed valuation levels will spur M&A activities, potential candidates can be found among technology,oil and gas and S chips.
STRATEGY
Themes :
A) Go for stocks with earnings resilience in recessions.
We would pick stocks with earnings resilience, as the economy struggles through the recession.
As we are still in the early phase of the recessionary cycle, we would pick stocks with resilient earnings – mainly land transport companies, media services and telecoms companies.
Our preferred picks are SMRT and Comfort Delgro, beneficiaries of the switch to public transport, as evidenced by a rise in ridership, while M1 is the cheapest telco play.
Singpost’s revenues were maintained during previous recessions (1998 and 2003) while SPH is the monopolistic player in newspaper advertising in Singapore.
B) Sell asset plays on strength.
The process of de-leveraging has yet to complete its course, and asset deflation has just started to unwind. We would take the opportunity in a bear market rally to sell on strength stocks in the property, shipping and hotel sectors.
Property stocks have been sold down to distressed levels, trading at prices close to its 1998 valuation levels, hovering at price to RNAV of 0.5x. The sector, while cheap, provides no catalyst for re-rating as yet, as we expect more downside to prices of properties.
Anecdotal evidence indicated that prices for high end properties have declined by 20% from its peak, vs our expectations of a 40% decline. Shipping stocks are hit by a plunge in freight rates, overcapacity issues and aggressive expansion plans which will stress their balance sheets.
Hotel plays are capped by drops in tourist arrivals since June 2008, amidst new capacity coming on-stream from 2009 once Marina Sands is completed by end-09.
C) Survival of the fittest – stress testing the balance sheet.
Contrary to market perception, net debt to equity ratio of STI companies at 23% currently is higher than the regional crisis levels of 1997 to 1999. In early 2000, companies, particularly Temasek-linked entities, were shifting towards optimizing their capital structure and efficient capital management, leading to higher dividend payouts.
As such, net debt ratios shot up to 50% in 2002, in tandem with arise in dividend payout ratio to 80% and a fall in corporate earnings. Subsequent years of economic boom led to a period of build up in cash flows, and decline in net debt.
It said the Singapore market is oversold, and poised for a rebound on cheap valuations.
But uncertainties continue to lurk amidst a tough operating environment, as recession hits and job cuts continue to rise.
“The bears will prevail in 2009, and we expect the STI to trade within a band of 1250 to 2100 as it base-builds towards a more convincing recovery in 2010.”
Excerpts from the report:
Singapore's forward PE is now at the level when it was hit by the Asian financial crisis.
Post the meltdown in October 2008, the market is cheap by all measures. At current levels of 1740, forward PE of 11x is close to the regional crisis low and dividend yields of 5.2% has surpassed previous lows of 3.5%. An expansionary budget to be unveiled inJanuary 2009, coupled with optimism over Obama’s fiscal measures to boost theUS economy are key catalysts for the rebound in 1Q09.
The economy is not out of the woods yet, and bad news from the corporate sector will cap performance. We expect the STI to trade within a range of 1450 to 2180. The low end of the range reflects a P/B of 0.9x, which is -2 standard deviations from the mean.
This is consistent with recession year valuations.
Stick to survivors of the fittest with the tenacity to ride through this recession.These will be companies backed by relatively resilient earnings, strong cashflows, and cashed-up balance sheet. They are in a favourable position to acquire cheap assets as deflation runs its course into 2009. Our preferred picks are SMRT, SIA Engineering, SPH and ST Engineering.
We would sell asset plays including property and shipping companies on the rebound, as the process of de-leveraging will lead to asset devaluation in 2009. Distressed valuation levels will spur M&A activities, potential candidates can be found among technology,oil and gas and S chips.
STRATEGY
Themes :
A) Go for stocks with earnings resilience in recessions.
We would pick stocks with earnings resilience, as the economy struggles through the recession.
As we are still in the early phase of the recessionary cycle, we would pick stocks with resilient earnings – mainly land transport companies, media services and telecoms companies.
Our preferred picks are SMRT and Comfort Delgro, beneficiaries of the switch to public transport, as evidenced by a rise in ridership, while M1 is the cheapest telco play.
Singpost’s revenues were maintained during previous recessions (1998 and 2003) while SPH is the monopolistic player in newspaper advertising in Singapore.
B) Sell asset plays on strength.
The process of de-leveraging has yet to complete its course, and asset deflation has just started to unwind. We would take the opportunity in a bear market rally to sell on strength stocks in the property, shipping and hotel sectors.
Property stocks have been sold down to distressed levels, trading at prices close to its 1998 valuation levels, hovering at price to RNAV of 0.5x. The sector, while cheap, provides no catalyst for re-rating as yet, as we expect more downside to prices of properties.
Anecdotal evidence indicated that prices for high end properties have declined by 20% from its peak, vs our expectations of a 40% decline. Shipping stocks are hit by a plunge in freight rates, overcapacity issues and aggressive expansion plans which will stress their balance sheets.
Hotel plays are capped by drops in tourist arrivals since June 2008, amidst new capacity coming on-stream from 2009 once Marina Sands is completed by end-09.
C) Survival of the fittest – stress testing the balance sheet.
Contrary to market perception, net debt to equity ratio of STI companies at 23% currently is higher than the regional crisis levels of 1997 to 1999. In early 2000, companies, particularly Temasek-linked entities, were shifting towards optimizing their capital structure and efficient capital management, leading to higher dividend payouts.
As such, net debt ratios shot up to 50% in 2002, in tandem with arise in dividend payout ratio to 80% and a fall in corporate earnings. Subsequent years of economic boom led to a period of build up in cash flows, and decline in net debt.
DBS Vickers' picks for Q1 rally
IN ITS just-published report, DBS Vickers Securities said it sees the bear market rally that started in 4Q08 extending into 1Q 09.
Investors can look forward to year-end window dressing activities and Singapore’s budgetscheduled on January 22.
The broker’s 18-page report also said that US President elect Obama’s pledge to revive the economy should continue to attract bargain hunting on minor dips ahead of his swearing in ceremony on Jan 20.
Despite these near-term positives, DBS Vickers is mindful of the ongoing credit crisis and the vulnerability of small companies.
Second half of the top chart.
In addition to attractive PE valuations, DBS Vickers considers a strong balance sheet a must. Additional criteria:
* Companies with net cash (or slight net debt),
* An Altman’s Z-score (a formula for predicting bankruptcy, the lower the score, the higherchance of bankruptcy) of at least 2.0.
* Good operating cash flows.
* No sharp increase in debtor’s turnover days.
Excerpts from the report:
(1) Beneficiary of China’s focus on domestic consumption
China Hongxing is expected to benefit from the Chinese government’s initiatives to focus on domestic consumption. Its sportswear products, which cater to mid-to-low end consumers in 2nd and 3rd tier cities in China, are less susceptible to the economic slowdown compared to high-end consumables.
Hongxing offers good value at current value as the stock is backed by 17 cts net cash per share and offering 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY09 and FY10.
More stocks recommended
(2) Beneficiary of China’s massive USD583bil stimulus plan.
The recently announced stimulus package includes plans for environmental protection that could be beneficial for waste and water treatment companies. Our second pick is leading water and wastewater treatment company Epure.
The company has a strong net cash of 14cts/share, and is in a strong financial position which enables it to finance BOT projects and future working capital through internally generated funds. Current valuation is compelling at 4.7x FY09 PER.
(3) Rebound in oil price lifts oversold O&M stocks
Oil price has fallen nearly 70% since peaking out at USD147 per barrell. Our average oil price assumption for 2009 is USD60pbl, which is about 40% higher compared to current price.
Our technical analyst sees strong support for oil price at USD38-40pbl.
ASL has a dividend yield of around 11%. Photo by Leong Chan Teik
Our picks are Ezra and ASL Marine. We view Ezra’s recent announcement to review its orders for 5 multi-functional support vessels positively as it signals a preference towards cash conservation, thus improving on its current net debt position even as growth continues to be underpinned by long-term charter contracts.
ASL Marine’s strong balance sheet and good earnings visibility from its large shipbuilding order book coupled with sustained strong demand for ship repair and chartering services justifies the company as our next pick in the O&M sector.
ASL also offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 11%.
(4) Healthcare sector as defensive
Our final pick is Raffles Medical. Besides the defensive nature of its business, the company boasts of strong operating cash flow and has a strong net cash position that should increase from S$9mil as of Sept 08 to S$16 mil by end 2008.
Its healthy balance sheet will see it through this period of uncertainty. It is trading at its historical low valuation of c. 10x PE.
Investors can look forward to year-end window dressing activities and Singapore’s budgetscheduled on January 22.
The broker’s 18-page report also said that US President elect Obama’s pledge to revive the economy should continue to attract bargain hunting on minor dips ahead of his swearing in ceremony on Jan 20.
Despite these near-term positives, DBS Vickers is mindful of the ongoing credit crisis and the vulnerability of small companies.
Second half of the top chart.
In addition to attractive PE valuations, DBS Vickers considers a strong balance sheet a must. Additional criteria:
* Companies with net cash (or slight net debt),
* An Altman’s Z-score (a formula for predicting bankruptcy, the lower the score, the higherchance of bankruptcy) of at least 2.0.
* Good operating cash flows.
* No sharp increase in debtor’s turnover days.
Excerpts from the report:
(1) Beneficiary of China’s focus on domestic consumption
China Hongxing is expected to benefit from the Chinese government’s initiatives to focus on domestic consumption. Its sportswear products, which cater to mid-to-low end consumers in 2nd and 3rd tier cities in China, are less susceptible to the economic slowdown compared to high-end consumables.
Hongxing offers good value at current value as the stock is backed by 17 cts net cash per share and offering 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY09 and FY10.
More stocks recommended
(2) Beneficiary of China’s massive USD583bil stimulus plan.
The recently announced stimulus package includes plans for environmental protection that could be beneficial for waste and water treatment companies. Our second pick is leading water and wastewater treatment company Epure.
The company has a strong net cash of 14cts/share, and is in a strong financial position which enables it to finance BOT projects and future working capital through internally generated funds. Current valuation is compelling at 4.7x FY09 PER.
(3) Rebound in oil price lifts oversold O&M stocks
Oil price has fallen nearly 70% since peaking out at USD147 per barrell. Our average oil price assumption for 2009 is USD60pbl, which is about 40% higher compared to current price.
Our technical analyst sees strong support for oil price at USD38-40pbl.
ASL has a dividend yield of around 11%. Photo by Leong Chan Teik
Our picks are Ezra and ASL Marine. We view Ezra’s recent announcement to review its orders for 5 multi-functional support vessels positively as it signals a preference towards cash conservation, thus improving on its current net debt position even as growth continues to be underpinned by long-term charter contracts.
ASL Marine’s strong balance sheet and good earnings visibility from its large shipbuilding order book coupled with sustained strong demand for ship repair and chartering services justifies the company as our next pick in the O&M sector.
ASL also offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 11%.
(4) Healthcare sector as defensive
Our final pick is Raffles Medical. Besides the defensive nature of its business, the company boasts of strong operating cash flow and has a strong net cash position that should increase from S$9mil as of Sept 08 to S$16 mil by end 2008.
Its healthy balance sheet will see it through this period of uncertainty. It is trading at its historical low valuation of c. 10x PE.
In Post We Trust
Fair Value: S$0.93
General Data
Issued Capital : 1,926 millions
Mkt Cap S$ 1,531 millions
Major Shareholder : SingTel (25.7%)
Free Float (%) 74.2
NTA per share (S$) 0.118
Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 4,079
52Wk High (S$) 1.180
52Wk Low (S$) 0.795
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network, SingPost also provides agency and financial services. In 1H09, the group achieved a 4.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$241.6m but incurred a 1.5% fall in net profit to S$76.9m. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit was higher by 11.5% at S$77.7m.
Should remain dominant despite liberalisation. Despite the liberalisation of the basic mail services market in Apr 07, SingPost is still in a strong position to remain as the dominant postal services operator.
Only it can hold the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates, as dictated by the Info-communications Development Authority (IDA). With other advantages like an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. SingPost has stable operating and free cash flows given the nature of its business. It has also been increasing its dividend per share since its IPO in 2003 to S$0.0625 in FY08. With the uncertainty in today's stock markets, its earnings are comparatively defensive. Although mail volume growth may be affected by e-substitution and the slowing economy, SingPost has undertaken proactive measures, as evidenced from its launched initiatives and diversification of services.
Initiate with BUY. The defensive nature of SingPost's business and its dominant market position renders it an attractive investment. Its proactive measures demonstrate its resolution to safeguard its profits, making it an even more compelling stock. Moreover, with a long list of properties under its name, SingPost may be able to unlock asset value when the time is ripe. We initiate SingPost with a BUY recommendation and S$0.93 fair value, derived from the free cash flow to equity approach (cost of equity 8.8%, terminal growth 2%). SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost
continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this would imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
I. Background in brief
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network with its post offices, self-service automated machines (SAMs) and vPost, its internet portal, SingPost provides not only postal but also agency and financial services.
II. Investment highlights
Dominant postal services operator. SingPost has been, and still is, the dominant player in the postal services industry in Singapore. Although the basic mail services market was liberalised in April 2007, SingPost still holds the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates. As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-todoor, limiting pricing flexibility. With other advantages such as an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have a limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Historically, SingPost has weathered economic downturns well, with flat revenues during the Asian financial crisis and a marginal 2% fall during the SARS crisis. This is especially relevant now given that the world is probably experiencing the worst slump since the Great Depression, with companies going through tough times in the face of falling demand and drying credit lines. SingPost has stable operating cash flows (Exhibit 1), a strong balance sheet and
dominant market position. Management has reiterated its dividend policy of a minimum of S$0.05 per share each year. Such factors render it an attractive stock given the current volatile market conditions. SingPost has also outperformed the general market over the past year in terms of share price, excluding dividends.
Opportunities for growth. SingPost has been launching new services and initiatives over the past few years, and latest ones include "ClickPost", an internet-enabled one-stop mailing solution for customers and "A.M. Mail", a time-certain service that bridges the gap between express mail and regular mail. It has also leveraged on its wide retail network via partnerships with companies such as GE Money, ERA Realty and Prudential. Direct mail (junk mail) is a segment that SingPost is targeting for growth by capturing a bigger slice of the advertising market share. According to SingPost, its current share is 4-5% of the Singapore market, while counterparts in
developed countries such as the UK enjoy about 14% of their country's market share. SingPost therefore believes it has potential to grow in this area.
Potential boosts from assets. SingPost is able to unlock value from its properties, and management has previously expressed interest in selling its flagship building, the Singapore Post Centre (SPC), next to Paya Lebar MRT Station. The group has also been selling some of its smaller properties, such as HDB shop units at Boon Lay Place and Clementi Central for S$2.8m and S$7.9m respectively. Though there are potential capital gains to be reaped from such asset sales, the likelihood of more sales, especially that of SPC, could be lower given the weakening property market. SingPost is also repurposing some of its post offices such as its Tanglin Post Office
which has been converted into a lifestyle hub with tenants such as Friven and Co, SunMoon Food Company, as well as The Wine Shop.
Sustainability amid uncertainty. In a time and age when melamine is appearing in milk and financial institutions are imploding, it is a tough call to think of entities worth entrusting our assets to today. However, SingPost is likely to appear on the list of trusted names given its consistent service quality over the years in terms of speed and reliability. It also has a history of paying out about 75-85% of its earnings and 70-80% of its free cash flow every year in the form of dividends since 2004, after its IPO in 2003. This is ideal as we prefer companies with free cash flow payout ratios below 80%, demonstrating that the firm has catered a cash cushion to maintain its dividend payments. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share.
III. Risks
Spectacular capital gains unlikely. SingPost may not be attractive to investors who are looking for spectacular capital gains, given its defensive profile. As it has outperformed the market in the past year, its share price has not plunged as much as others, so investors looking for quick gains are unlikely to be satisfied with SingPost (unless SingPost gives a special dividend when it sells its SPC building when the property market picks up).
Although management is looking at growth drivers across all its business segments, it has singled out direct mail as an area they wish to further develop. It is unlikely, however, that the direct mail market will grow substantially in the short term given the current economic downturn as companies may choose to curtail advertising costs. However SingPost may be able to capture greater market share despite the slower market growth in the short term.
Margins may deteriorate. With new entrants after the liberalisation of the basic mail services market, we expect greater margin pressure. Profit margin for 2Q09 was 31.0%, lower than 33.2% in 2Q08. As such, management will continue to focus on cost management measures to control its costs but we do note that easing inflation should help SingPost mitigate its costs.
Increase in terminal dues. The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has reclassified Singapore as a "target country" (previously known as "industrialized country") from its current category of "net contributor country" for the purpose of terminal dues settlement, with effect from 1 Jan 2010.
Singapore will have to apply the relevant terminal dues system from 2010 to 2013 and contribute to the UPU Quality of Service Fund. All this means that net terminal dues payments (dependent on type and volume of mail, and destination mix) will rise, therefore increasing SingPost's traffic expenses. SingPost said it will apply to IDA for adjustments in postage rates if necessary, but any revisions will require IDA's approval.
Other risks. Terrorist acts happen swiftly and unexpectedly, and such threats should never be disregarded. Postal and express delivery operations may be disrupted by the threat of anthrax attacks or mail bombs, whether real or hoaxes, including other terrorism-related activities. Any such incident could negatively impact SingPost's business and reputation.
Section B: Country Analysis and Macroeconomic Forces
Economic downturn will affect demand. Singapore, being the first Asian country to enter into a technical recession, is expected to contract by as much as 2% in the coming year, according to official estimates. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Singapore will be among the world's 10 slowest-growing economies in 2009, and sees it contracting by 2.2%. With such a backdrop, SingPost's businesses, especially the mail and retail segments, are likely to be affected as well:
1) Public mail has been decreasingly steadily over the years with esubstitution, while business mail volumes should decline with slower business activity. Direct mail may be impacted by lower advertising expenditure, but SingPost hopes to mitigate its slowdown by capturing greater market share, as discussed earlier.
2) SingPost's retail segment comprises agency services and retail products, as well as financial services such as remittances and unsecured lending. With a weakening real economy, people are likely to curtail their spending and decrease consumption.
Not all segments will be hit. Singapore's increasing foreign population means that foreign remittances could grow, although money remitted home could either rise (family members may need more money with the global downturn) or fall (workers may be retrenched or suffer from pay-cuts).
SingPost revealed that its main customers are from the Philippines and neighbouring countries, while Chinese and Indians form a smaller percentage. Going forward, SingPost hopes to secure more customers in the latter group to sustain the remittance business. SingPost also has six pawnshops under the SpeedCash brand. Pawnshops are normally a reliable bellweather of the state of the economy, as there is usually an increase in business with more people looking for fast ways to get cash during an economic crisis. With the economic downturn and projected rising unemployment, pawnshops are likely to benefit.
Easing inflation may mitigate cost pressures. SingPost has been experiencing cost pressures partly from rising labour costs which make up the bulk (27%) of total operating expenses in FY08. It is unlikely that wage and other costs increases will be substantial going forward given easing inflation in Singapore and the current difficult operating environment which has prompted firms to retrench workers. Fuel costs are also unlikely to spike up in the near future (barring unforeseen circumstances) with lower oil prices in light of the slowing global economy.
Section C: Industry Analysis
As revenue from the mail business made up 77% of total revenue and 81% of operating profit in FY08, we will examine this segment in greater detail.
I. Singapore's postal services sector
Slow growth in total mail volume. According to IDA, while total mail volume in Singapore enjoyed healthy growth in the 1990s, the average growth rate in recent years has slowed to about 2% a year. Despite esubstitution, SingPost experienced an increase in mail volume handled in both domestic and international mail. In the longer term, once the economy picks up, direct mail should be an important growth driver since there is still room for SingPost's business to grow. However, as we weather the current economic downturn, companies are expected to send out less direct marketing mail. As such, mail industry growth is not expected to be spectacular.
Includes domestic letters, postcards, and printed pages sent and received within Singapore, and similar categories of international mail, both inbound and outbound.
Excludes express letters and parcels.
Longest history in Singapore among the five existing firms. Although SingPost was incorporated in Mar 92, its actual history actually dates back to 1819 through its predecessors. Pursuant to a license granted by the IDA in Apr 92, SingPost was the exclusive provider of basic mail services until Mar 07. Swiss Post International Singapore was issued a postal service license only in 2007. The others were issued licenses only in 2008.
Basic mail is the only area of liberalisation. Basic mail refers to letters and postcards, excluding express letters. Under the domestic mail segment, SingPost is likely to encounter increased competition in the direct mail business, although this segment has always been open to competition.
Among the other four postal service operators, it is possible that Swiss Post International (S) and WMG may compete for market share in direct marketing services. International mail (both inbound and outbound) is also likely to face greater competition, as IDA's intention is to develop Singapore as a regional printing hub and enhance e-commerce activities.
Still has some exclusive rights. SingPost is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore, which means only it has access to letterbox masterdoor keys, and the rationale behind IDA's decision is to protect mail integrity in the public postal system and safeguard consumers' interests.
As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-to-door, limiting pricing flexibility. SingPost will also be the only one to issue national stamps and continue to be the organization representing Singapore at international and regional postal meetings.
Widening network. SingPost has also been increasing its reach to consumers over the years. Its postal network comprises post offices, stamp vendors, SAMs and postboxes. Given the nature of the business where convenience and easy access are among the main priorities of the customer, SingPost's vast distribution network ensures that it has the competitive advantage.
Degree of competition. Potential competitors are unlikely to compete aggressively in the domestic mail market considering that they have to utilize SingPost's access network since they do not hold the masterdoor keys. As such, there is limited pricing flexibility. There could be more competition in the international mail market but SingPost also has a joint venture (Spring, set up in 2001) with TNT Post and Royal Mail for the crossborder mail business. As for logistics, SingPost has admitted that this is a highly competitive business but the group said it has performed well in the past year by expanding its customer base in a variety of industries.
II. Global postal services sector
Postal service operators not spared. The financial crisis has affected postal service operators around the world, including the United States Postal Service (USPS), the biggest postal service in the world. The group posted a net loss of US$2.8b for FY08, partly due to a 9.5b decline in mail volumes to 202.7b pieces. The UK's Royal Mail has also said that its operations "face additional risk from the squeeze in the UK economy" and from businesses' and individuals' cost-cutting measures.
State of the worldwide postal sector. The postal sector is still very much relevant and certain sectors are expected to grow. According to the UPU, while growth in urgent mail is stagnating in industrialized countries, there is still "tremendous growth potential" in emerging countries. Direct mail is growing in both developed and developing countries. New technologies can be utilized as means of increasing the interconnectedness among countries and further integrating the postal offices around the world, therefore increasing the points of access for ordinary citizens.
Section D: Company Analysis
I. Business overview
SingPost has three main operating divisions: mail, logistics and retail. In the latest 2Q09 results, mail accounted for 72% of total revenue, while logistics and retail made up 15% and 13% respectively.
Public Mail
Public mail consists primarily of stamped mail and franked mail. Stamped mail is sent mainly by individuals and consists letters and postcards (excluding express letters). Volumes have been declining due to substitution by email and the Internet. Franked mail is used primarily by home offices and SMEs as a method of mailing large quantities of mail of different weights and sizes. Volumes have been declining as franked mail customers upgrade to bulk mail.
Bulk Mail
Bulk mail consists of publications, direct mail, and government and business mail. It is used as an efficient means of distributing large quantities of homogenous mail such as invoices and promotional mailings. Processing and delivery times are reduced as the customer's items and postage rates do not have to be weighed and calculated individually.
Hybrid Mail
More bulk mail is being outsourced for printing and mailing as companies focus more on their core businesses and competencies. Main customers include financial institutions, telecommunications companies, and government bodies, among others.
International Mail
There is increasing competition in the international mail market as new competitors enter previously regulated markets in the world. International mail volumes are also likely to be hit by the global economic slowdown.
Philatelic
SingPost produces commemorative and special stamps as well as other collectibles for tourists and the gift market.
Speedpost
Speedpost is a door-to-door express delivery service for documents, parcels and freight. Speedpost Islandwide is a service within Singapore, Speedpost Worldwide provides international deliveries, while Speedpost Freight transports large or heavyweight shipments.
Warehousing, fulfillment and distribution
This is a complement to Speedpost and provides business customers a one-stop logistics service. Fulfillment services include item collection, wrapping, payment collection, shipping and invoicing.
vPost (shop and ship)
vPost is SingPost's online portal that offers a range of services including shopping and shipping. Currently, customers can purchase items from certain countries in the world and have them delivered to their doorstep.
Retail
SingPost sells a wide variety of postal and non-postal products including packaging and stationery items. Customers can also pay their utility bills, taxes, fines, license fees and other contributions as organizations outsource payment administration to SingPost.
Under financial services, remittances and unsecured lending made up the bulk of this segment's revenue while post-assurance and secured lending accounted for the rest. With the credit crunch and economic downturn, SingPost's lending business may improve as banks tighten their lending.
II. Competitive positioning and corporate strategies
Emphasis on quality. Instead of merely relying on a cost leadership model, SingPost places great emphasis on service quality and worker productivity.
In FY08, SingPost continued to surpass the Quality of Serivce in mail delivery set by the IDA by achieving more than 99% delivery by the next working day for mail posted within and outside the Central Business District (CBD).
The group also achieved international recognition in the World Mail Awards (Quality category) on the basis of increased productivity, discounts to customers, lower incidence of damage and improved sorting accuracy and delivery.
Productivity increases. Postman productivity has also increased from 2,923 to 3,130 items delivered per postman per effective man-day in FY08, while productivity of mail processing officers grew from 5,765 to 6,307 items sorted per processing officer. Going forward, SingPost aims to pursue further efficiency improvements.
More effective direct mail. SingPost also has a competitive advantage based on its extensive network and proprietary database. SingPost's updated data repository and clear understanding of the whereabouts of the target audience is important in increasing the effectiveness of direct mail, as mail can be sent to targeted customer segments. This increases the response rate and cuts unnecessary spending for the corporate partner.
One-Stop-Shop service. SingPost is able to provide a one-stop service for its customers through its mail, logistics and retail divisions. The group has diversified its operations in the past few years with forays into remittances and lending services, among others. New initiatives and joint ventures have been undertaken as well, and the following exhibit illustrates some in the past 3 years.
III. SWOT analysis table
The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats with regards to SingPost have been discussed in earlier parts of the report, but just to recap:
Key JVs and initiatives in the past three years
15 Dec 08 Launched A.M. Mail Time-certain service that delivers mail by 11am the next working day
20 Oct 08 Termination of JV JV with GPN International and Oce
19 Sep 08 Added new remittance channel New channel to the Philippines through the Philppine National Bank
29 Apr 08 Collaboration with ABN AMRO SingPost will distribute ABN AMRO's line of credit, PostLine
28 Mar 08 Launched Asian property sercurities fund Collaboration with Prudential
5 Feb 08 Offered the SingPost Visa Money Transfer service First postal service provider in the world to offer Visa remittance service
22 Jan 08 New remittance service to Indonesia Collarboration with PT Bank Negara
23 Jul 08 Launched Dmrocket one-stop specialist Direct Mail service
2 Jul 07 JV with Thai British Security Printing Set up JVC to provide laser printing and enveloping statements, bills etc
4 May 07 Cooperation agreement with Hongkong Post Provide data printing, enveloping and other services
3 May 07 JV with GPN International and Oce To engage in the business of Print-On-Demand
23 Nov 06 Collaboration with Pos Indonesia Four initiatives on channelling services, remittances, logistics and direct mail
14 Nov 06 Established unit trusts distribution partnership Collaboration with Prudential Asset
29 Sep 06 Launched PostREALTY Collaboration with ERA Realty Network of Hersing
23 Jan 06 Launched Speedpost Express Premium express courier service with DHL as a partner
Strengths Weaknesses
A. Dominant position in postal services industry
B. Stable operating and free cash flows
C. Able to leverage on wide distribution network
A. Slow growth in mail volume, the mainstay business
B. Limited upside for postage rates which is also subject to IDA's approval
Opportunities Threats
A. New initiatives and diversification of services to present more opportunities
B. Potential boosts from assets
C. Direct mail a market worth focusing but may be affected in this downturn
A. Pricing pressures from increasing competition
B. Higher expenses from terminal dues revision
C. Economic downturn to affect demand
I. Financial performance and forecasts
Good 2Q09 results. In SingPost's latest 2Q09 results, group revenue grew by 4.1% YoY to S$120.7m with improved performances in all three business segments. Mail revenue rose 2.8% on the back of higher contributions from domestic, international and hybrid mail, as well as the philatelic business.
Logistics revenue increased by 6.4% due to growth in Speedpost, vPost shipping transactions as well as warehousing, fulfillment and distribution.
As for retail, revenue rose by 8.6%, driven by financial and agency services. The group's rental and property-related income grew by 39.3% to S$8.2m, boosted by higher rental income from its headquarters, the SPC.
Forecasts. We are estimating a 2.5% growth in revenue in FY09, followed by a 2.0% contraction in FY10. To recap, SingPost's revenue was flat in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/1998) but fell by 2% during the SARS period (2003). As the property and rental market weakens, we are unlikely to see a similar increase in SingPost's rental and property-related income as compared to FY08. The leases in the SPC are staggered, and about one-third of them come up for renewal every year. A check with SingPost also confirmed that lease rates are softening. Margins are prone to downward
pressures with new entrants in the industry but management said it will continue to focus on cost management measures. Easing inflation is likely to help SingPost in this area as well.
Bonds are the only borrowings. SingPost's only borrowings is its unsecured bonds of principal amount S$300m listed on the SGX-ST. The maturity period is 10 years from 11Apr 03 with fixed interest rate of 3.13% per annum. This translates to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 as of Sep 08.
There is solid cash flow protection due to its strong operating cash flows(operating CF: S$173.7m, FCF: S$160.9m in FY08). Interest coverage using EBIT/Interest gives a ratio of 16.1.
II. Valuation and recommendation
Upside potential with low refinancing risk. In view of its stable cash flows, we value the group on a discounted free cash flow to equity basis (8.8% cost of equity, 2% terminal growth), deriving a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We have adopted a beta of 0.8 instead of Bloomberg's 0.6 for a more conservative cost of equity. As our sensitivity analysis shows, even with a higher cost of equity at 9.0% or lower terminal growth of 1.5%, SingPost still has an upside potential sufficient for a BUY call. SingPost has little capital expenditure (less than 5% of revenue every year, and has been 2-3% historically) and its defensive business and strong cash flows
means it has little refinancing risk.
Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on SingPost with a BUY recommendation with a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows and dividend yield, and we think its defensive profile will serve it well during this period of economic uncertainty. Although mail volume growth may be crimped with a slowing economy and esubstitution, SingPost has launched new initiatives over the years and diversified into other business areas to pursue growth. SingPost is also asset rich, and there is always the possibility of unlocking asset values though this may be unlikely in the near future with a weakening property market. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
General Data
Issued Capital : 1,926 millions
Mkt Cap S$ 1,531 millions
Major Shareholder : SingTel (25.7%)
Free Float (%) 74.2
NTA per share (S$) 0.118
Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 4,079
52Wk High (S$) 1.180
52Wk Low (S$) 0.795
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network, SingPost also provides agency and financial services. In 1H09, the group achieved a 4.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$241.6m but incurred a 1.5% fall in net profit to S$76.9m. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit was higher by 11.5% at S$77.7m.
Should remain dominant despite liberalisation. Despite the liberalisation of the basic mail services market in Apr 07, SingPost is still in a strong position to remain as the dominant postal services operator.
Only it can hold the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates, as dictated by the Info-communications Development Authority (IDA). With other advantages like an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. SingPost has stable operating and free cash flows given the nature of its business. It has also been increasing its dividend per share since its IPO in 2003 to S$0.0625 in FY08. With the uncertainty in today's stock markets, its earnings are comparatively defensive. Although mail volume growth may be affected by e-substitution and the slowing economy, SingPost has undertaken proactive measures, as evidenced from its launched initiatives and diversification of services.
Initiate with BUY. The defensive nature of SingPost's business and its dominant market position renders it an attractive investment. Its proactive measures demonstrate its resolution to safeguard its profits, making it an even more compelling stock. Moreover, with a long list of properties under its name, SingPost may be able to unlock asset value when the time is ripe. We initiate SingPost with a BUY recommendation and S$0.93 fair value, derived from the free cash flow to equity approach (cost of equity 8.8%, terminal growth 2%). SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost
continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this would imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
I. Background in brief
Singapore Post (SingPost) is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore. It provides domestic and international postal services, and is also a logistics provider in the domestic market with global service offerings to more than 220 territories/countries. Leveraging on its retail distribution network with its post offices, self-service automated machines (SAMs) and vPost, its internet portal, SingPost provides not only postal but also agency and financial services.
II. Investment highlights
Dominant postal services operator. SingPost has been, and still is, the dominant player in the postal services industry in Singapore. Although the basic mail services market was liberalised in April 2007, SingPost still holds the masterdoor keys to letterboxes provided by property owners and developers, including those in HDB estates. As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-todoor, limiting pricing flexibility. With other advantages such as an established distribution network, significant free cash flow, a monopoly over stamp issues and an entrenched brand name, we believe that the liberalisation should have a limited impact on SingPost.
Defensiveness amid uncertainty. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Historically, SingPost has weathered economic downturns well, with flat revenues during the Asian financial crisis and a marginal 2% fall during the SARS crisis. This is especially relevant now given that the world is probably experiencing the worst slump since the Great Depression, with companies going through tough times in the face of falling demand and drying credit lines. SingPost has stable operating cash flows (Exhibit 1), a strong balance sheet and
dominant market position. Management has reiterated its dividend policy of a minimum of S$0.05 per share each year. Such factors render it an attractive stock given the current volatile market conditions. SingPost has also outperformed the general market over the past year in terms of share price, excluding dividends.
Opportunities for growth. SingPost has been launching new services and initiatives over the past few years, and latest ones include "ClickPost", an internet-enabled one-stop mailing solution for customers and "A.M. Mail", a time-certain service that bridges the gap between express mail and regular mail. It has also leveraged on its wide retail network via partnerships with companies such as GE Money, ERA Realty and Prudential. Direct mail (junk mail) is a segment that SingPost is targeting for growth by capturing a bigger slice of the advertising market share. According to SingPost, its current share is 4-5% of the Singapore market, while counterparts in
developed countries such as the UK enjoy about 14% of their country's market share. SingPost therefore believes it has potential to grow in this area.
Potential boosts from assets. SingPost is able to unlock value from its properties, and management has previously expressed interest in selling its flagship building, the Singapore Post Centre (SPC), next to Paya Lebar MRT Station. The group has also been selling some of its smaller properties, such as HDB shop units at Boon Lay Place and Clementi Central for S$2.8m and S$7.9m respectively. Though there are potential capital gains to be reaped from such asset sales, the likelihood of more sales, especially that of SPC, could be lower given the weakening property market. SingPost is also repurposing some of its post offices such as its Tanglin Post Office
which has been converted into a lifestyle hub with tenants such as Friven and Co, SunMoon Food Company, as well as The Wine Shop.
Sustainability amid uncertainty. In a time and age when melamine is appearing in milk and financial institutions are imploding, it is a tough call to think of entities worth entrusting our assets to today. However, SingPost is likely to appear on the list of trusted names given its consistent service quality over the years in terms of speed and reliability. It also has a history of paying out about 75-85% of its earnings and 70-80% of its free cash flow every year in the form of dividends since 2004, after its IPO in 2003. This is ideal as we prefer companies with free cash flow payout ratios below 80%, demonstrating that the firm has catered a cash cushion to maintain its dividend payments. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share.
III. Risks
Spectacular capital gains unlikely. SingPost may not be attractive to investors who are looking for spectacular capital gains, given its defensive profile. As it has outperformed the market in the past year, its share price has not plunged as much as others, so investors looking for quick gains are unlikely to be satisfied with SingPost (unless SingPost gives a special dividend when it sells its SPC building when the property market picks up).
Although management is looking at growth drivers across all its business segments, it has singled out direct mail as an area they wish to further develop. It is unlikely, however, that the direct mail market will grow substantially in the short term given the current economic downturn as companies may choose to curtail advertising costs. However SingPost may be able to capture greater market share despite the slower market growth in the short term.
Margins may deteriorate. With new entrants after the liberalisation of the basic mail services market, we expect greater margin pressure. Profit margin for 2Q09 was 31.0%, lower than 33.2% in 2Q08. As such, management will continue to focus on cost management measures to control its costs but we do note that easing inflation should help SingPost mitigate its costs.
Increase in terminal dues. The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has reclassified Singapore as a "target country" (previously known as "industrialized country") from its current category of "net contributor country" for the purpose of terminal dues settlement, with effect from 1 Jan 2010.
Singapore will have to apply the relevant terminal dues system from 2010 to 2013 and contribute to the UPU Quality of Service Fund. All this means that net terminal dues payments (dependent on type and volume of mail, and destination mix) will rise, therefore increasing SingPost's traffic expenses. SingPost said it will apply to IDA for adjustments in postage rates if necessary, but any revisions will require IDA's approval.
Other risks. Terrorist acts happen swiftly and unexpectedly, and such threats should never be disregarded. Postal and express delivery operations may be disrupted by the threat of anthrax attacks or mail bombs, whether real or hoaxes, including other terrorism-related activities. Any such incident could negatively impact SingPost's business and reputation.
Section B: Country Analysis and Macroeconomic Forces
Economic downturn will affect demand. Singapore, being the first Asian country to enter into a technical recession, is expected to contract by as much as 2% in the coming year, according to official estimates. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Singapore will be among the world's 10 slowest-growing economies in 2009, and sees it contracting by 2.2%. With such a backdrop, SingPost's businesses, especially the mail and retail segments, are likely to be affected as well:
1) Public mail has been decreasingly steadily over the years with esubstitution, while business mail volumes should decline with slower business activity. Direct mail may be impacted by lower advertising expenditure, but SingPost hopes to mitigate its slowdown by capturing greater market share, as discussed earlier.
2) SingPost's retail segment comprises agency services and retail products, as well as financial services such as remittances and unsecured lending. With a weakening real economy, people are likely to curtail their spending and decrease consumption.
Not all segments will be hit. Singapore's increasing foreign population means that foreign remittances could grow, although money remitted home could either rise (family members may need more money with the global downturn) or fall (workers may be retrenched or suffer from pay-cuts).
SingPost revealed that its main customers are from the Philippines and neighbouring countries, while Chinese and Indians form a smaller percentage. Going forward, SingPost hopes to secure more customers in the latter group to sustain the remittance business. SingPost also has six pawnshops under the SpeedCash brand. Pawnshops are normally a reliable bellweather of the state of the economy, as there is usually an increase in business with more people looking for fast ways to get cash during an economic crisis. With the economic downturn and projected rising unemployment, pawnshops are likely to benefit.
Easing inflation may mitigate cost pressures. SingPost has been experiencing cost pressures partly from rising labour costs which make up the bulk (27%) of total operating expenses in FY08. It is unlikely that wage and other costs increases will be substantial going forward given easing inflation in Singapore and the current difficult operating environment which has prompted firms to retrench workers. Fuel costs are also unlikely to spike up in the near future (barring unforeseen circumstances) with lower oil prices in light of the slowing global economy.
Section C: Industry Analysis
As revenue from the mail business made up 77% of total revenue and 81% of operating profit in FY08, we will examine this segment in greater detail.
I. Singapore's postal services sector
Slow growth in total mail volume. According to IDA, while total mail volume in Singapore enjoyed healthy growth in the 1990s, the average growth rate in recent years has slowed to about 2% a year. Despite esubstitution, SingPost experienced an increase in mail volume handled in both domestic and international mail. In the longer term, once the economy picks up, direct mail should be an important growth driver since there is still room for SingPost's business to grow. However, as we weather the current economic downturn, companies are expected to send out less direct marketing mail. As such, mail industry growth is not expected to be spectacular.
Includes domestic letters, postcards, and printed pages sent and received within Singapore, and similar categories of international mail, both inbound and outbound.
Excludes express letters and parcels.
Longest history in Singapore among the five existing firms. Although SingPost was incorporated in Mar 92, its actual history actually dates back to 1819 through its predecessors. Pursuant to a license granted by the IDA in Apr 92, SingPost was the exclusive provider of basic mail services until Mar 07. Swiss Post International Singapore was issued a postal service license only in 2007. The others were issued licenses only in 2008.
Basic mail is the only area of liberalisation. Basic mail refers to letters and postcards, excluding express letters. Under the domestic mail segment, SingPost is likely to encounter increased competition in the direct mail business, although this segment has always been open to competition.
Among the other four postal service operators, it is possible that Swiss Post International (S) and WMG may compete for market share in direct marketing services. International mail (both inbound and outbound) is also likely to face greater competition, as IDA's intention is to develop Singapore as a regional printing hub and enhance e-commerce activities.
Still has some exclusive rights. SingPost is the designated Public Postal Licensee for Singapore, which means only it has access to letterbox masterdoor keys, and the rationale behind IDA's decision is to protect mail integrity in the public postal system and safeguard consumers' interests.
As such, new entrants to the industry either have to utilize SingPost's network or deliver mail door-to-door, limiting pricing flexibility. SingPost will also be the only one to issue national stamps and continue to be the organization representing Singapore at international and regional postal meetings.
Widening network. SingPost has also been increasing its reach to consumers over the years. Its postal network comprises post offices, stamp vendors, SAMs and postboxes. Given the nature of the business where convenience and easy access are among the main priorities of the customer, SingPost's vast distribution network ensures that it has the competitive advantage.
Degree of competition. Potential competitors are unlikely to compete aggressively in the domestic mail market considering that they have to utilize SingPost's access network since they do not hold the masterdoor keys. As such, there is limited pricing flexibility. There could be more competition in the international mail market but SingPost also has a joint venture (Spring, set up in 2001) with TNT Post and Royal Mail for the crossborder mail business. As for logistics, SingPost has admitted that this is a highly competitive business but the group said it has performed well in the past year by expanding its customer base in a variety of industries.
II. Global postal services sector
Postal service operators not spared. The financial crisis has affected postal service operators around the world, including the United States Postal Service (USPS), the biggest postal service in the world. The group posted a net loss of US$2.8b for FY08, partly due to a 9.5b decline in mail volumes to 202.7b pieces. The UK's Royal Mail has also said that its operations "face additional risk from the squeeze in the UK economy" and from businesses' and individuals' cost-cutting measures.
State of the worldwide postal sector. The postal sector is still very much relevant and certain sectors are expected to grow. According to the UPU, while growth in urgent mail is stagnating in industrialized countries, there is still "tremendous growth potential" in emerging countries. Direct mail is growing in both developed and developing countries. New technologies can be utilized as means of increasing the interconnectedness among countries and further integrating the postal offices around the world, therefore increasing the points of access for ordinary citizens.
Section D: Company Analysis
I. Business overview
SingPost has three main operating divisions: mail, logistics and retail. In the latest 2Q09 results, mail accounted for 72% of total revenue, while logistics and retail made up 15% and 13% respectively.
Public Mail
Public mail consists primarily of stamped mail and franked mail. Stamped mail is sent mainly by individuals and consists letters and postcards (excluding express letters). Volumes have been declining due to substitution by email and the Internet. Franked mail is used primarily by home offices and SMEs as a method of mailing large quantities of mail of different weights and sizes. Volumes have been declining as franked mail customers upgrade to bulk mail.
Bulk Mail
Bulk mail consists of publications, direct mail, and government and business mail. It is used as an efficient means of distributing large quantities of homogenous mail such as invoices and promotional mailings. Processing and delivery times are reduced as the customer's items and postage rates do not have to be weighed and calculated individually.
Hybrid Mail
More bulk mail is being outsourced for printing and mailing as companies focus more on their core businesses and competencies. Main customers include financial institutions, telecommunications companies, and government bodies, among others.
International Mail
There is increasing competition in the international mail market as new competitors enter previously regulated markets in the world. International mail volumes are also likely to be hit by the global economic slowdown.
Philatelic
SingPost produces commemorative and special stamps as well as other collectibles for tourists and the gift market.
Speedpost
Speedpost is a door-to-door express delivery service for documents, parcels and freight. Speedpost Islandwide is a service within Singapore, Speedpost Worldwide provides international deliveries, while Speedpost Freight transports large or heavyweight shipments.
Warehousing, fulfillment and distribution
This is a complement to Speedpost and provides business customers a one-stop logistics service. Fulfillment services include item collection, wrapping, payment collection, shipping and invoicing.
vPost (shop and ship)
vPost is SingPost's online portal that offers a range of services including shopping and shipping. Currently, customers can purchase items from certain countries in the world and have them delivered to their doorstep.
Retail
SingPost sells a wide variety of postal and non-postal products including packaging and stationery items. Customers can also pay their utility bills, taxes, fines, license fees and other contributions as organizations outsource payment administration to SingPost.
Under financial services, remittances and unsecured lending made up the bulk of this segment's revenue while post-assurance and secured lending accounted for the rest. With the credit crunch and economic downturn, SingPost's lending business may improve as banks tighten their lending.
II. Competitive positioning and corporate strategies
Emphasis on quality. Instead of merely relying on a cost leadership model, SingPost places great emphasis on service quality and worker productivity.
In FY08, SingPost continued to surpass the Quality of Serivce in mail delivery set by the IDA by achieving more than 99% delivery by the next working day for mail posted within and outside the Central Business District (CBD).
The group also achieved international recognition in the World Mail Awards (Quality category) on the basis of increased productivity, discounts to customers, lower incidence of damage and improved sorting accuracy and delivery.
Productivity increases. Postman productivity has also increased from 2,923 to 3,130 items delivered per postman per effective man-day in FY08, while productivity of mail processing officers grew from 5,765 to 6,307 items sorted per processing officer. Going forward, SingPost aims to pursue further efficiency improvements.
More effective direct mail. SingPost also has a competitive advantage based on its extensive network and proprietary database. SingPost's updated data repository and clear understanding of the whereabouts of the target audience is important in increasing the effectiveness of direct mail, as mail can be sent to targeted customer segments. This increases the response rate and cuts unnecessary spending for the corporate partner.
One-Stop-Shop service. SingPost is able to provide a one-stop service for its customers through its mail, logistics and retail divisions. The group has diversified its operations in the past few years with forays into remittances and lending services, among others. New initiatives and joint ventures have been undertaken as well, and the following exhibit illustrates some in the past 3 years.
III. SWOT analysis table
The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats with regards to SingPost have been discussed in earlier parts of the report, but just to recap:
Key JVs and initiatives in the past three years
15 Dec 08 Launched A.M. Mail Time-certain service that delivers mail by 11am the next working day
20 Oct 08 Termination of JV JV with GPN International and Oce
19 Sep 08 Added new remittance channel New channel to the Philippines through the Philppine National Bank
29 Apr 08 Collaboration with ABN AMRO SingPost will distribute ABN AMRO's line of credit, PostLine
28 Mar 08 Launched Asian property sercurities fund Collaboration with Prudential
5 Feb 08 Offered the SingPost Visa Money Transfer service First postal service provider in the world to offer Visa remittance service
22 Jan 08 New remittance service to Indonesia Collarboration with PT Bank Negara
23 Jul 08 Launched Dmrocket one-stop specialist Direct Mail service
2 Jul 07 JV with Thai British Security Printing Set up JVC to provide laser printing and enveloping statements, bills etc
4 May 07 Cooperation agreement with Hongkong Post Provide data printing, enveloping and other services
3 May 07 JV with GPN International and Oce To engage in the business of Print-On-Demand
23 Nov 06 Collaboration with Pos Indonesia Four initiatives on channelling services, remittances, logistics and direct mail
14 Nov 06 Established unit trusts distribution partnership Collaboration with Prudential Asset
29 Sep 06 Launched PostREALTY Collaboration with ERA Realty Network of Hersing
23 Jan 06 Launched Speedpost Express Premium express courier service with DHL as a partner
Strengths Weaknesses
A. Dominant position in postal services industry
B. Stable operating and free cash flows
C. Able to leverage on wide distribution network
A. Slow growth in mail volume, the mainstay business
B. Limited upside for postage rates which is also subject to IDA's approval
Opportunities Threats
A. New initiatives and diversification of services to present more opportunities
B. Potential boosts from assets
C. Direct mail a market worth focusing but may be affected in this downturn
A. Pricing pressures from increasing competition
B. Higher expenses from terminal dues revision
C. Economic downturn to affect demand
I. Financial performance and forecasts
Good 2Q09 results. In SingPost's latest 2Q09 results, group revenue grew by 4.1% YoY to S$120.7m with improved performances in all three business segments. Mail revenue rose 2.8% on the back of higher contributions from domestic, international and hybrid mail, as well as the philatelic business.
Logistics revenue increased by 6.4% due to growth in Speedpost, vPost shipping transactions as well as warehousing, fulfillment and distribution.
As for retail, revenue rose by 8.6%, driven by financial and agency services. The group's rental and property-related income grew by 39.3% to S$8.2m, boosted by higher rental income from its headquarters, the SPC.
Forecasts. We are estimating a 2.5% growth in revenue in FY09, followed by a 2.0% contraction in FY10. To recap, SingPost's revenue was flat in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/1998) but fell by 2% during the SARS period (2003). As the property and rental market weakens, we are unlikely to see a similar increase in SingPost's rental and property-related income as compared to FY08. The leases in the SPC are staggered, and about one-third of them come up for renewal every year. A check with SingPost also confirmed that lease rates are softening. Margins are prone to downward
pressures with new entrants in the industry but management said it will continue to focus on cost management measures. Easing inflation is likely to help SingPost in this area as well.
Bonds are the only borrowings. SingPost's only borrowings is its unsecured bonds of principal amount S$300m listed on the SGX-ST. The maturity period is 10 years from 11Apr 03 with fixed interest rate of 3.13% per annum. This translates to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 as of Sep 08.
There is solid cash flow protection due to its strong operating cash flows(operating CF: S$173.7m, FCF: S$160.9m in FY08). Interest coverage using EBIT/Interest gives a ratio of 16.1.
II. Valuation and recommendation
Upside potential with low refinancing risk. In view of its stable cash flows, we value the group on a discounted free cash flow to equity basis (8.8% cost of equity, 2% terminal growth), deriving a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We have adopted a beta of 0.8 instead of Bloomberg's 0.6 for a more conservative cost of equity. As our sensitivity analysis shows, even with a higher cost of equity at 9.0% or lower terminal growth of 1.5%, SingPost still has an upside potential sufficient for a BUY call. SingPost has little capital expenditure (less than 5% of revenue every year, and has been 2-3% historically) and its defensive business and strong cash flows
means it has little refinancing risk.
Initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage on SingPost with a BUY recommendation with a fair value estimate of S$0.93. We like SingPost for its stable operating cash flows and dividend yield, and we think its defensive profile will serve it well during this period of economic uncertainty. Although mail volume growth may be crimped with a slowing economy and esubstitution, SingPost has launched new initiatives over the years and diversified into other business areas to pursue growth. SingPost is also asset rich, and there is always the possibility of unlocking asset values though this may be unlikely in the near future with a weakening property market. SingPost has a dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.3% yield. Assuming SingPost continues its S$0.0625 dividend per share in FY09, this imply a 7.9% yield, which is attractive given its defensiveness.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
逆市大贏家──蔡志明親述6大投資智慧
「玩具大王」旭日國際集團主席蔡志明，上周以7億3000萬元向「大馬糖王」郭鶴年旗下的嘉里集團，買入尖東安達中心全幢，消息令疲弱的投資市場大為震動，皆因這是自金融海嘯以來最大額的成交。
他向本刊披露逆市六大投資心法，當中最重要的，是不估底，不貪高，他認為如果堅持要在最低位入市，最高位沽貨，分分鐘會錯失時機；此外，自己不熟識的投資，一定不做。
拼搏三十多年，蔡志明靠雙手建立百億玩具王國，清楚辛苦錢不易賺，他自稱是穩陣投資派，沒沾手衍生工具，「銀行不會死錯人，點會畀高息你又冇risk？」。
成功實業家的投資智慧，自然高明過人。
「我唔係叻，穩陣啫。」蔡志明對本刊強調並非未卜先知，只是多年做廠和投資經驗，令他多少洞悉經濟循環和物極必反的道理。
「我對停車場好有興趣，貪它價值上落不大，不用做宣傳，又不會有欠租等問題。去年試過跟他們(嘉里)傾，對方想賣12億，我不肯；兩、三個星期前他們再搵我，最初開價8億，大家再討價還價3、4日，結果以7億3000萬傾掂數。」蔡志明說。
雖然不少地產界人士看淡後市，蔡志明卻重鎚出擊，皆因他看中停車場的現金流，「安達中心有全尖東最大的停車場，可泊950架車，全個區的商業中心和酒店都來租位，每月收租360至370萬，回報有5至6厘。」
雖被市場人士冠以「淡市救星」稱號，但蔡志明認為，樓市才剛開始跌，這個價未算最低，但他覺得合理便拍板去馬。「只要個市跌得不是咁慘，收些租運作到就OK。明年個價或者會更低，但到時又有對手一齊跟我爭啦，而且我是長渣不是短炒，有機會等佢升。」他稱。
61歲的蔡志明，做玩具起家，其後轉戰地產界，自97年金融風暴後，他趁樓市不斷下滑，密密低價吸納優質商廈、住宅、商場及舖位，部分趁高價沽出，獲利甚豐。蔡志明目前持有的三十多個地產項目，市值超過100億元，單是停車場已有6、7個，為他提供穩定而充足的財源。
蔡志明身家估計有13億美元，令他打入今年《福布斯》香港40富豪榜。他的投資致勝之道，在於他往往在樓市低殘時敢於入市撈平貨。金融海嘯殺到埋身，人人都沒有錢時，再次為持有充足現金的實力投資者提供入市機會，蔡志明向本刊獨家披露6大逆市投資智慧：
不估底
蔡志明認為，買物業是長線投資，他選擇投資對象時，亦會揀自己喜歡的物業，價錢滿意便會買入，而不會等物業跌至最低價。
「幾個月前有基金想出貨賣九龍城廣場，那裡共62萬呎地方，我出價14億8000萬，計落只是二千多元一呎，成本同自己起樓差不多，所以買得好舒服。」他說。
據了解，蔡志明3年前曾向大摩為首的財團出價洽購九龍城廣場，最初業主叫價18億元，雙方討價還價好一段日子，蔡志明近期成功以平價買到心頭好。以該商場現時每月租金700萬元計算，蔡志明穩袋6厘回報。
蔡志明與長居美國的哥哥亦有涉足當地的樓市，其中一項最成功的投資，就是趁樓價跌，專揀未完工的銀主盤去買，「美國有規定，銀行收樓後要在1年內賣出，我們平價買回來後會花錢埋尾，然後租出去，都有2成回報，幾年就有10倍、8倍回報。」
不貪頂
蔡志明投資屬穩陣派，經常有買入無賣出。不過，他去年直覺覺得本港樓市、股市已「去到好高」，於是一口氣沽了7個物業，套現32億元。現在回看，他沽貨的時機拿捏得相當準。
「我相信物極必反，世界經濟皆有循環，以前是4年一個循環，現在6、7年、10年，愈來愈長。去年恆指上到30000點時，我完全不敢入市，根本超乎實際，當時不知今年(經濟)會差，但我不想欠銀行太多錢，所以沽了7件貨還錢給銀行。」蔡志明說。
去年他沽貨時，最常聽到的一句話是：「咁快就賣？個價仲有得高喎！」例如中環鱷魚恤大廈賣出後，市價仍繼續向上，但蔡志明一於少理，皆因他相信「不要去得太盡」，「我不貪心，升一倍不走，明年可能打回原形，咪空歡喜一場？」
蔡 志明前年在美國曼克頓市也賣了8間地舖，「成本1億，現在賺一個double，其實不是咩預感，我不知個市況，但覺得價啱就賣。如果一直冇賣，去年就變了 冇賺，今年仲要倒蝕！」他笑說，做廠對他預測經濟循環都有幫助，「我會睇歐美的定單走勢，當定單由好勇變成一『水』都要分3次落單，或者數期拖長，都是銀 根抽緊的跡象。」
識計風險 不信高回報
蔡志明擁有很多物業，持有的股票相對較少，除2003年入股「位元堂」外，目前只持有愛女蔡加怡擔任主席的康健國際，以及富豪酒店的股票，他說帳面虧損了10億、8億元。
「我是長渣的，基本上不賣，至於其他衍生工具，我完全冇掂。早排大摩經常搵我和我的財務總監，叫我買Accumulator，但我心諗，銀行邊有咁好死，畀咁多息你又冇risk？他們咁多專家計數，實冇死錯人，好彩冇事就搵少少，唔好彩就大件事啦。」
「我曾跟朋友講，邊有咁大隻蛤乸隨街跳？當時仲畀人鬧，話全世界都玩緊，咁先發達的！」他續稱。
蔡志明完全不為Accumulator所動，全因他在1973年受過畢生難忘的教訓。剛開了玩具廠的他，辛苦賺來20萬元，聽人講買了置地的股票，「那時第一次買股票，完全是散戶心態，股價跌了唔肯走，升又唔肯賣，結果73年股災畀佢瀉到乜都冇。
「那筆錢應該拿來發展間廠，買多兩部機器，我好後悔，咁辛苦搵錢，點知變了廢紙，從此我好少買股票，有錢賺就沽。」
去年股市牛氣沖天，有不少富豪被「氹」買了Accumulator等高風險衍生工具，就算純買股票，一樣輸到喊，「有些人市旺時成日講股票，話今日又賺了100萬，現在都唔係幾出聲，我亦唔會問，但我想他們都不會輸到破產，都係唔見啲咁啦。」
保持良好信貸紀錄
蔡志明近年大舉投資物業市場原因之一，是玩具行業很容易受全球經濟影響，令定單時多時少。假如公司有物業收租，財政收入會較穩定，亦可保住一班員工。
無論做廠或購買物業，少不免要與銀行交手，蔡志明去年便選擇清還銀行債務，保持良好信貸紀錄。
「如果不是欠銀行錢，我未必會咁積極賣樓，但我不想孭住條數，萬一個市跌就好麻煩，餘下的錢就投資到韶關，興建全球最大的玩具廠。」他說。
今年不少銀行收緊信貸，但正因為蔡志明欠銀行的款項已還得七七八八，銀行自然願意借錢給他，協助蔡志明繼續在低位撈貨。
不賣鍾情物業
蔡志明特別留意與自己有感情的物業，好像安達中心，他以前經常來這裡見客，不時光顧該停車場，「當時個場好多車，成日要上去好高層先搵到位泊車。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
不沾手陌生投資
他的兒子去年從美國回來時，亦曾跟朋友「細細哋玩吓」，蔡志明並無禁止，卻留意到兒子在公司開會時偷瞄股票機。
「他說買甚麼Put輪，我完全不知道是甚麼，但我跟他講，你來公司學習，但你的注意力放晒落投資，會學藝不精。他好乖，一個月後食飯時，攞了部股票機出來，跟我講以後收埋不玩了。」他說，結果金融海嘯殺到，兒子投資沒有損手，還說：「老竇，都係你好嘢。」
本港經濟未見底
蔡志明的客戶遍及歐美，對全球經濟脈搏掌握得比普通人多，他亦向本刊分享他對多國聯手救市及本港投資市場前景的看法。
蔡志明認為，金融海嘯跟97年金融風暴不同之處，在於多國很快便決定救市，令投資者以為有希望，盡量去守。「我相信中國政府救市會OK，經濟慢慢會穩定些， 但歐美是否救到則是疑問。中國以出口為主，歐美市民冇購買力，定貨減少就影響中國，內地失業率上升，市民就冇錢買樓和消費。」他稱。
他的本行玩具業更是首當其衝的行業之一，中小型工廠已面對接單困難，廣東省萬多間玩具廠當中，至少會有三分一執笠。
「玩具業未來幾年全球定單會減少，加上內地實施了《勞動法》，工人好易扭計，客戶又不肯加價，中小型工廠的生意好難做，對玩具業影響好大。」蔡志明說，不過因為一些細廠倒閉，近期他的工廠定單不跌反升，相信明年亦可維持賺到利潤。
當大多數意見均認為，經濟轉差會令父母減少買玩具給小朋友，蔡志明卻提出另一套理論：「我又不是太悲觀，玩具始終要買，但家長會揀平價的，在沙士期間，玩具銷量根本冇跌到。」
「在別人最冇錢時入貨」
至於本港經濟，他認為現時仍未見底，未到遍地平貨的時候，「今次金融海嘯來得好急好厲害，不少人輸錢，但97年時多些人受影響，涉及層面亦廣些。」
蔡志明預計，明年及後年的經濟或會繼續差，「我最擔心係，雖然中國救到市，但歐美唔得，中國頂得一陣就被拖累。中國是世界工廠，如果冇工開，你話經濟掂唔掂？」
他又認為，歐美經濟至少3年後才能復甦。那麼本港投資者何時才適合買樓、買股票？蔡志明謹慎地說：「當別人最冇錢的時候，市場才會有平貨執，那時才是入市的時機。」
激讚女兒「唔肯走」
蔡志明教人「買股票要識得走」，但女兒一次「唔肯走」的堅持，令蔡志明十分欣賞。
蔡加怡2006年加入康健集團並當上主席，蔡志明給了女兒400萬元買入康健的股票，「市旺時個價曾升了10倍，我勸她賣多少套回本金，女兒卻說，作為公司主席，如果她賣股票，股民會以為隻股票唔好。
「現在跌剩幾十萬囉，但加怡說無後悔，仲話：『我要話畀全香港人知道，我蔡加怡係做嘢，唔係炒股票的。』」加怡做實事的態度，令這個當爸爸的十分欣慰。
做玩具大王
因為小時候好少玩具，蔡志明立志長大了要做玩具這一行。預科畢業後，他當上玩具廠推銷員，「原本打算去多倫多大學讀書，但母親說仔女全都到外面去了，剛巧她有朋友做玩具廠，就去學嘢，和留下來多些陪她。」3年後才往英國修讀機械工程。
畢業後他和友人合資成立旭日實業，後來朋友退股，他咬緊牙關捱過沒錢賺的日子，憑著獨到眼光，主動聯絡經營史諾比玩具的生產商，寧讓人家賺多點利潤，也要爭取合作，得到對方信任，生意愈來愈大。
在工業界拼搏超過30年，蔡志明說，40歲之前做得十分辛苦，大小事務一腳踢，「貨多時，我都要幫手將玩具入箱，試過累得蜷在箱內睡着了，早上醒來又再入過。近年生意上了軌道，才多了出去玩，去吓ball。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
他向本刊披露逆市六大投資心法，當中最重要的，是不估底，不貪高，他認為如果堅持要在最低位入市，最高位沽貨，分分鐘會錯失時機；此外，自己不熟識的投資，一定不做。
拼搏三十多年，蔡志明靠雙手建立百億玩具王國，清楚辛苦錢不易賺，他自稱是穩陣投資派，沒沾手衍生工具，「銀行不會死錯人，點會畀高息你又冇risk？」。
成功實業家的投資智慧，自然高明過人。
「我唔係叻，穩陣啫。」蔡志明對本刊強調並非未卜先知，只是多年做廠和投資經驗，令他多少洞悉經濟循環和物極必反的道理。
「我對停車場好有興趣，貪它價值上落不大，不用做宣傳，又不會有欠租等問題。去年試過跟他們(嘉里)傾，對方想賣12億，我不肯；兩、三個星期前他們再搵我，最初開價8億，大家再討價還價3、4日，結果以7億3000萬傾掂數。」蔡志明說。
雖然不少地產界人士看淡後市，蔡志明卻重鎚出擊，皆因他看中停車場的現金流，「安達中心有全尖東最大的停車場，可泊950架車，全個區的商業中心和酒店都來租位，每月收租360至370萬，回報有5至6厘。」
雖被市場人士冠以「淡市救星」稱號，但蔡志明認為，樓市才剛開始跌，這個價未算最低，但他覺得合理便拍板去馬。「只要個市跌得不是咁慘，收些租運作到就OK。明年個價或者會更低，但到時又有對手一齊跟我爭啦，而且我是長渣不是短炒，有機會等佢升。」他稱。
61歲的蔡志明，做玩具起家，其後轉戰地產界，自97年金融風暴後，他趁樓市不斷下滑，密密低價吸納優質商廈、住宅、商場及舖位，部分趁高價沽出，獲利甚豐。蔡志明目前持有的三十多個地產項目，市值超過100億元，單是停車場已有6、7個，為他提供穩定而充足的財源。
蔡志明身家估計有13億美元，令他打入今年《福布斯》香港40富豪榜。他的投資致勝之道，在於他往往在樓市低殘時敢於入市撈平貨。金融海嘯殺到埋身，人人都沒有錢時，再次為持有充足現金的實力投資者提供入市機會，蔡志明向本刊獨家披露6大逆市投資智慧：
不估底
蔡志明認為，買物業是長線投資，他選擇投資對象時，亦會揀自己喜歡的物業，價錢滿意便會買入，而不會等物業跌至最低價。
「幾個月前有基金想出貨賣九龍城廣場，那裡共62萬呎地方，我出價14億8000萬，計落只是二千多元一呎，成本同自己起樓差不多，所以買得好舒服。」他說。
據了解，蔡志明3年前曾向大摩為首的財團出價洽購九龍城廣場，最初業主叫價18億元，雙方討價還價好一段日子，蔡志明近期成功以平價買到心頭好。以該商場現時每月租金700萬元計算，蔡志明穩袋6厘回報。
蔡志明與長居美國的哥哥亦有涉足當地的樓市，其中一項最成功的投資，就是趁樓價跌，專揀未完工的銀主盤去買，「美國有規定，銀行收樓後要在1年內賣出，我們平價買回來後會花錢埋尾，然後租出去，都有2成回報，幾年就有10倍、8倍回報。」
不貪頂
蔡志明投資屬穩陣派，經常有買入無賣出。不過，他去年直覺覺得本港樓市、股市已「去到好高」，於是一口氣沽了7個物業，套現32億元。現在回看，他沽貨的時機拿捏得相當準。
「我相信物極必反，世界經濟皆有循環，以前是4年一個循環，現在6、7年、10年，愈來愈長。去年恆指上到30000點時，我完全不敢入市，根本超乎實際，當時不知今年(經濟)會差，但我不想欠銀行太多錢，所以沽了7件貨還錢給銀行。」蔡志明說。
去年他沽貨時，最常聽到的一句話是：「咁快就賣？個價仲有得高喎！」例如中環鱷魚恤大廈賣出後，市價仍繼續向上，但蔡志明一於少理，皆因他相信「不要去得太盡」，「我不貪心，升一倍不走，明年可能打回原形，咪空歡喜一場？」
蔡 志明前年在美國曼克頓市也賣了8間地舖，「成本1億，現在賺一個double，其實不是咩預感，我不知個市況，但覺得價啱就賣。如果一直冇賣，去年就變了 冇賺，今年仲要倒蝕！」他笑說，做廠對他預測經濟循環都有幫助，「我會睇歐美的定單走勢，當定單由好勇變成一『水』都要分3次落單，或者數期拖長，都是銀 根抽緊的跡象。」
識計風險 不信高回報
蔡志明擁有很多物業，持有的股票相對較少，除2003年入股「位元堂」外，目前只持有愛女蔡加怡擔任主席的康健國際，以及富豪酒店的股票，他說帳面虧損了10億、8億元。
「我是長渣的，基本上不賣，至於其他衍生工具，我完全冇掂。早排大摩經常搵我和我的財務總監，叫我買Accumulator，但我心諗，銀行邊有咁好死，畀咁多息你又冇risk？他們咁多專家計數，實冇死錯人，好彩冇事就搵少少，唔好彩就大件事啦。」
「我曾跟朋友講，邊有咁大隻蛤乸隨街跳？當時仲畀人鬧，話全世界都玩緊，咁先發達的！」他續稱。
蔡志明完全不為Accumulator所動，全因他在1973年受過畢生難忘的教訓。剛開了玩具廠的他，辛苦賺來20萬元，聽人講買了置地的股票，「那時第一次買股票，完全是散戶心態，股價跌了唔肯走，升又唔肯賣，結果73年股災畀佢瀉到乜都冇。
「那筆錢應該拿來發展間廠，買多兩部機器，我好後悔，咁辛苦搵錢，點知變了廢紙，從此我好少買股票，有錢賺就沽。」
去年股市牛氣沖天，有不少富豪被「氹」買了Accumulator等高風險衍生工具，就算純買股票，一樣輸到喊，「有些人市旺時成日講股票，話今日又賺了100萬，現在都唔係幾出聲，我亦唔會問，但我想他們都不會輸到破產，都係唔見啲咁啦。」
保持良好信貸紀錄
蔡志明近年大舉投資物業市場原因之一，是玩具行業很容易受全球經濟影響，令定單時多時少。假如公司有物業收租，財政收入會較穩定，亦可保住一班員工。
無論做廠或購買物業，少不免要與銀行交手，蔡志明去年便選擇清還銀行債務，保持良好信貸紀錄。
「如果不是欠銀行錢，我未必會咁積極賣樓，但我不想孭住條數，萬一個市跌就好麻煩，餘下的錢就投資到韶關，興建全球最大的玩具廠。」他說。
今年不少銀行收緊信貸，但正因為蔡志明欠銀行的款項已還得七七八八，銀行自然願意借錢給他，協助蔡志明繼續在低位撈貨。
不賣鍾情物業
蔡志明特別留意與自己有感情的物業，好像安達中心，他以前經常來這裡見客，不時光顧該停車場，「當時個場好多車，成日要上去好高層先搵到位泊車。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
不沾手陌生投資
他的兒子去年從美國回來時，亦曾跟朋友「細細哋玩吓」，蔡志明並無禁止，卻留意到兒子在公司開會時偷瞄股票機。
「他說買甚麼Put輪，我完全不知道是甚麼，但我跟他講，你來公司學習，但你的注意力放晒落投資，會學藝不精。他好乖，一個月後食飯時，攞了部股票機出來，跟我講以後收埋不玩了。」他說，結果金融海嘯殺到，兒子投資沒有損手，還說：「老竇，都係你好嘢。」
本港經濟未見底
蔡志明的客戶遍及歐美，對全球經濟脈搏掌握得比普通人多，他亦向本刊分享他對多國聯手救市及本港投資市場前景的看法。
蔡志明認為，金融海嘯跟97年金融風暴不同之處，在於多國很快便決定救市，令投資者以為有希望，盡量去守。「我相信中國政府救市會OK，經濟慢慢會穩定些， 但歐美是否救到則是疑問。中國以出口為主，歐美市民冇購買力，定貨減少就影響中國，內地失業率上升，市民就冇錢買樓和消費。」他稱。
他的本行玩具業更是首當其衝的行業之一，中小型工廠已面對接單困難，廣東省萬多間玩具廠當中，至少會有三分一執笠。
「玩具業未來幾年全球定單會減少，加上內地實施了《勞動法》，工人好易扭計，客戶又不肯加價，中小型工廠的生意好難做，對玩具業影響好大。」蔡志明說，不過因為一些細廠倒閉，近期他的工廠定單不跌反升，相信明年亦可維持賺到利潤。
當大多數意見均認為，經濟轉差會令父母減少買玩具給小朋友，蔡志明卻提出另一套理論：「我又不是太悲觀，玩具始終要買，但家長會揀平價的，在沙士期間，玩具銷量根本冇跌到。」
「在別人最冇錢時入貨」
至於本港經濟，他認為現時仍未見底，未到遍地平貨的時候，「今次金融海嘯來得好急好厲害，不少人輸錢，但97年時多些人受影響，涉及層面亦廣些。」
蔡志明預計，明年及後年的經濟或會繼續差，「我最擔心係，雖然中國救到市，但歐美唔得，中國頂得一陣就被拖累。中國是世界工廠，如果冇工開，你話經濟掂唔掂？」
他又認為，歐美經濟至少3年後才能復甦。那麼本港投資者何時才適合買樓、買股票？蔡志明謹慎地說：「當別人最冇錢的時候，市場才會有平貨執，那時才是入市的時機。」
激讚女兒「唔肯走」
蔡志明教人「買股票要識得走」，但女兒一次「唔肯走」的堅持，令蔡志明十分欣賞。
蔡加怡2006年加入康健集團並當上主席，蔡志明給了女兒400萬元買入康健的股票，「市旺時個價曾升了10倍，我勸她賣多少套回本金，女兒卻說，作為公司主席，如果她賣股票，股民會以為隻股票唔好。
「現在跌剩幾十萬囉，但加怡說無後悔，仲話：『我要話畀全香港人知道，我蔡加怡係做嘢，唔係炒股票的。』」加怡做實事的態度，令這個當爸爸的十分欣慰。
做玩具大王
因為小時候好少玩具，蔡志明立志長大了要做玩具這一行。預科畢業後，他當上玩具廠推銷員，「原本打算去多倫多大學讀書，但母親說仔女全都到外面去了，剛巧她有朋友做玩具廠，就去學嘢，和留下來多些陪她。」3年後才往英國修讀機械工程。
畢業後他和友人合資成立旭日實業，後來朋友退股，他咬緊牙關捱過沒錢賺的日子，憑著獨到眼光，主動聯絡經營史諾比玩具的生產商，寧讓人家賺多點利潤，也要爭取合作，得到對方信任，生意愈來愈大。
在工業界拼搏超過30年，蔡志明說，40歲之前做得十分辛苦，大小事務一腳踢，「貨多時，我都要幫手將玩具入箱，試過累得蜷在箱內睡着了，早上醒來又再入過。近年生意上了軌道，才多了出去玩，去吓ball。」
銅鑼灣時代廣場對面的二千年廣場，亦是蔡志明另一鍾情物業，「那裡好旺，又有好多廣告牌，愈睇愈覺得鍾意，有人出高價我都不願意賣。」
蔡志明位於沙田九肚山紅橋里的豪華大宅，亦曾有日本投資者出天價洽購，但蔡志明一樣不為所動。
2005年底，他再以5000萬元買入紅橋里六號地皮作擴建之用，整個地盤佔地約2萬5000平方呎，目前正在裝修。
雖然生意已上軌道，但蔡志明堅持每日早上返公司開會，下午則處理地產業務，盡量不沾手不熟悉的投資項目。
「做廠好忙，不會有心機成日睇股票，例如你買期指，上落好大，令你成日好緊張要睇實，恆指升會開心得滯，大跌就連開會都影響埋。」蔡志明稱。
陶朱公智慧与逆向投资
被巴菲特等投资大师开涮最多的一种动物叫旅鼠。这种动物出名在自杀式的季节性迁徙。“旅鼠故事”说的就是，一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对此老巴还有句妙语：当惯性起作用的时候，理性通常会萎缩。
可在从众方面，人其实比旅鼠好不到哪儿去。
老巴说他非常迷惑，华尔街有那么多受过良好教育、经验丰富的职业投资家，但证券市场上却没有因此而形成更多逻辑和理智的力量。市场总是在从众和随大流中实现着一次又一次的轮回。
其实在中国最古老的财富智慧中，对此早有解析。春秋时代的陶朱公，也就是助越王勾践一战灭吴的大智者范蠡，堪称历史上弃政从商的鼻祖和开创个人致富纪录的典范。《史记》中载“累十九年三致金，财聚巨万”，靠的是什么呢？不能不佩服陶朱公的经商头脑。在当时那个年代他就能根据市场的供求关系，判断价格的涨落，即“论其（商品）有余和不足，则知（价格）贵贱。”他发现价格涨落有个极限，即贵到极点后就会下落；贱到极点后就会上涨，出现“一贵一贱，极而复反”的规律。他进而提出一套“积贮之理”。这就是在物价便宜时，要大量收进。他说“贱取如珠玉”，即像重视珠玉那样重视降价的物品，尽量买进存贮起来。等到涨价之后，就尽量卖出。“贵出如粪土”，即像抛弃粪土那样毫不可惜地尽数抛出。
按照陶朱公的理论，金木水火之年轮流循环，具有很强的周期性，于是陶朱公就在丰收的金年里低价收购粮食，在歉收及饥馑的年景里陆续售出，同时购入木材。到了火年时节遭逢大旱，道路平整易于车辆奔行，所以造车的利润很高，而陶朱公却反其道而行之，将他收购来的木材全部用来造船。正当人们讥笑他不识时务的时候，旱年之后随之就是大洪涝，别的商人措手不及，根本没有时间临时改车造船，而陶朱公家里事先造好的船只，则是以很高的价格一售而空。
财富的智慧往往在于另辟蹊径。旱时造船，涝时却造车，体现的是逆向思维。时至今日，这些财富哲思经历了近三千年之久的岁月洗练，越发明晰而显出其卓见真知。
巴菲特的名言“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”，也有异曲同工之妙。或许是一种必然，凡投资大师血液里都有逆向投资的基因，这也暗合了这样一个规律，那就是在投资（投机）这个行业中，绝大多数人最终都必须成为失败者，面对这样的残酷，唯有远离大众思维，才能加大胜出的概率。
斯宾诺沙有一句哲学名言：“从灾难的观点出发去发现价值”，可是，当灾难真正来临的时候，有多少人不会陷入灾难的恐惧中，甚至会自然不自然地传播恐惧？事实证明，当灾难远去的时候，人们才会恍然大悟。拿价值投资者最为看重的安全边际来说，没有坏消息、坏事情的伴随，怎能会轻易出现？可是摆脱从众思维对任何人来说殊非易事。
公认的逆向投资高手邓普顿当年为了避税以及远离华尔街的噪音，宣布放弃美国国籍，长居巴哈马。因为他觉得，如果一直待在曼哈顿，所见的人、所谈的事和其他人一模一样，要想进行逆向操作就变得无比困难。与其他投资理念相比，逆向投资更显知易行难，度的把握也更具艺术性。某种意义上说，逆向投资实际上是一种心理博弈过程，是比谁的心理更稳定，谁更理性，谁更能战胜自我，而战胜自我却是最难、最需要修炼的事情。
可在从众方面，人其实比旅鼠好不到哪儿去。
老巴说他非常迷惑，华尔街有那么多受过良好教育、经验丰富的职业投资家，但证券市场上却没有因此而形成更多逻辑和理智的力量。市场总是在从众和随大流中实现着一次又一次的轮回。
其实在中国最古老的财富智慧中，对此早有解析。春秋时代的陶朱公，也就是助越王勾践一战灭吴的大智者范蠡，堪称历史上弃政从商的鼻祖和开创个人致富纪录的典范。《史记》中载“累十九年三致金，财聚巨万”，靠的是什么呢？不能不佩服陶朱公的经商头脑。在当时那个年代他就能根据市场的供求关系，判断价格的涨落，即“论其（商品）有余和不足，则知（价格）贵贱。”他发现价格涨落有个极限，即贵到极点后就会下落；贱到极点后就会上涨，出现“一贵一贱，极而复反”的规律。他进而提出一套“积贮之理”。这就是在物价便宜时，要大量收进。他说“贱取如珠玉”，即像重视珠玉那样重视降价的物品，尽量买进存贮起来。等到涨价之后，就尽量卖出。“贵出如粪土”，即像抛弃粪土那样毫不可惜地尽数抛出。
按照陶朱公的理论，金木水火之年轮流循环，具有很强的周期性，于是陶朱公就在丰收的金年里低价收购粮食，在歉收及饥馑的年景里陆续售出，同时购入木材。到了火年时节遭逢大旱，道路平整易于车辆奔行，所以造车的利润很高，而陶朱公却反其道而行之，将他收购来的木材全部用来造船。正当人们讥笑他不识时务的时候，旱年之后随之就是大洪涝，别的商人措手不及，根本没有时间临时改车造船，而陶朱公家里事先造好的船只，则是以很高的价格一售而空。
财富的智慧往往在于另辟蹊径。旱时造船，涝时却造车，体现的是逆向思维。时至今日，这些财富哲思经历了近三千年之久的岁月洗练，越发明晰而显出其卓见真知。
巴菲特的名言“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”，也有异曲同工之妙。或许是一种必然，凡投资大师血液里都有逆向投资的基因，这也暗合了这样一个规律，那就是在投资（投机）这个行业中，绝大多数人最终都必须成为失败者，面对这样的残酷，唯有远离大众思维，才能加大胜出的概率。
斯宾诺沙有一句哲学名言：“从灾难的观点出发去发现价值”，可是，当灾难真正来临的时候，有多少人不会陷入灾难的恐惧中，甚至会自然不自然地传播恐惧？事实证明，当灾难远去的时候，人们才会恍然大悟。拿价值投资者最为看重的安全边际来说，没有坏消息、坏事情的伴随，怎能会轻易出现？可是摆脱从众思维对任何人来说殊非易事。
公认的逆向投资高手邓普顿当年为了避税以及远离华尔街的噪音，宣布放弃美国国籍，长居巴哈马。因为他觉得，如果一直待在曼哈顿，所见的人、所谈的事和其他人一模一样，要想进行逆向操作就变得无比困难。与其他投资理念相比，逆向投资更显知易行难，度的把握也更具艺术性。某种意义上说，逆向投资实际上是一种心理博弈过程，是比谁的心理更稳定，谁更理性，谁更能战胜自我，而战胜自我却是最难、最需要修炼的事情。
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Professor Nouriel Roubini views for 2009
Nouriel Roubini expects 2009 to be a year of stagflation and recession for most of the global economy. He expects a severe, global recession.
Whether or not it persists in 2010 will depend on how aggressive and effective policy actions are: monetary policy and fiscal policy and efforts to recapitalize financial institutions in the US and elsewhere.
He believes there could be a return to positive economic growth by 2010. The European Central Bank should follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates further. The US needs a plan to reduce the debt burden to US households. The remedies will cost tax payers a lot of money.
Does the U..S. dollar's December slide mean the USD has passed its peak?
Most likely not. The turn-of-the- year profit-taking on long USD positions creates a near-term blip in the dollar's uptrend but doesn't alter the medium-term trend of appreciation versus the euro. The four horseman of the carry trade apocalypse - Deleveraging, Risk Aversion, Growth Differentials and the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - would need to retreat before we see a sustained pullback in the EUR/USD from the slide to near-parity ($1.10-$1.30) . Governments, banks and other firms are still scrambling for dollars to repay their USD-denominated debt while signs of global recession and credit crisis spur on the flight-to-safety in U.S. Treasuries. European sovereign bonds offer an alternative but inferior safe haven because of the
European bond market's fragmentation and exposure to emerging Europe . More aggressive policy response in the U.S. compared to Europe , could bring the U.S. out of a recession faster than the Eurozone (though growth will most likely remain subdued for some years to come), supporting the dollar against the euro. In the longer term, however, once risk appetite revives, the greenback might lose its defenses in wake of worries surrounding U.S. public debt expansion and the potential inflationary effect of quantitative easing.
Luke Mullins of U.S. News & World Report recently interview the professor and the following is the text FYI.
Nouriel Roubini: The $700 Billion Bailout Isn't Enough - December 18, 2008
I spoke with the bearish?but prescient?economist Nouriel Roubini on Wednesday about what's in store for the economy, housing, and stock markets in 2009. Here's what he had to say:
What is your outlook for the length and depth of the recession?
My view is that that recession is going to continue at least through the end of 2009. It started in December 2007, so it's going to be 24 months long. It's going to be the longest we've had in the last 60 years. I expect a cumulative fall in output from the peak of 4 to 5 percent. Just to give you a sense, in the last recession, the cumulative fall in output was only 0.4 percent?this one is 10 times deeper. The unemployment rate will peak at above 9 percent sometime in 2010. And we're facing not just a U.S. recession but a global recession. There is a recession in all of the
advanced economies, and now there is the beginning of a hard landing also in the emerging markets.
What are the main factors behind the recession?
Initially, it was the excesses in the U.S. housing market, but we have discovered that those excesses were not limited only to housing. The household sector was highly leveraged?subprime, prime, credit cards, auto loans, student loans. There was a releveraging of the financial system, with massive amounts of excessive leverage and risk taking. That led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and, because of securitization, we spread it to the rest of the world. Also easy money from the Fed?they pushed down the federal funds rate and kept it too low for too long?and lax supervision of financial institutions played a role. So a number of different factors [triggered the crisis].
What's your outlook for housing?
Well, between 1996 and 2006, real home prices doubled. So just to go back to the previous level?without undershooting? you need a fall in real terms of 50 percent in home prices. You can achieve 40 percent of that through nominal falling home prices and 10 percent of it through inflation. That means that home prices have to fall at least 40 percent [from the peak].
And they have fallen, as of today, from their peak of 2006 by 25 percent. I expect them to fall at least another 15 percent or maybe even 20?so a cumulative fall in home prices in nominal terms of at least 40 percent, possibly 45. And the housing recession has not bottomed out. The data yesterday about housing starts and building permits suggested that it's a total disaster in housing, and there is no bottom to it. This is the worst housing recession since the Great Depression.
Do you think stocks have bottomed?
No, I don't think so. Of course, in the last few weeks we have been in another bear market rally, but bear market rallies have occurred for the last 12 months. Markets rally after shocks, and then shocks come and they fall further. But I see another downside to U.S. and global equities of at least 15 to 20 percent from current levels for three reasons. One is that the news about the economy?both in the U.S. and abroad?is going to be much worse then expected. The numbers have been just awful, and they are going to get worse. Two, there is still a lot of delusion about what earnings are going to be in 2009. And three, I think that there are going to be many more financial shocks, other large institutions going bust?highly leveraged
institutions like hedge funds.
The financial shocks are not over, and the credit losses are going to mount because they are spreading from subprime to prime to credit cards to auto loans to student loans to leveraged loans to municipal bonds to industrial and commercial loans to corporate bonds. We have to take about $2 trillion of credit losses and so far nearly half of it has been recognized. So I see another wave of massive credit losses that is going to worsen the credit crunch.
Would you say then that the credit crisis is at its halfway point?
Well, we're still in the middle of it. We are still in the deepest part of this credit crunch. Look at corporate credit spreads?they are unprecedented. We are nowhere near the bottom. The credit crunch is as painful now as it has been. And so far, everything the Fed has done in its massive quantitative easing has not made much of a difference as far as corporate credit spreads.
What is your opinion of the government's response to the credit crisis so far?
My first observation would be that even if they do everything right, the recession is going to proceed through the end of next year. I don't think that there is anything that the government can do at this point to reverse that. What they can do is to try to ensure that there is at least the beginning of an economic recovery toward the end of next year and into 2010. What needs to be done is actually many different things. The first thing is we need a huge fiscal stimulus because private demand, consumption, and spending are collapsing. So you need a huge stimulus?$500
billion to $700 billion of government spending in infrastructure, money to state and local governments, unemployment benefits. The usual range of things.
The second thing you need is to more aggressively recapitalize the financial institutions, not just banks but broker dealers, finance companies, and insurance companies. And there is only $350 billion of TARP [Treasury Asset Relief Program] money left. We are going to spend all of that, and we are going to need a TARP II because in order to cover all the losses you will need more than $1 trillion. Three, you need to reduce the debt burden of the households that are insolvent. Loan modifications are meaningless. You need debt reduction, similar to what we did during the Great Depression with the government buying up the mortgage, reducing its face value, and converting [the loans] from variable rates to long-term fixed rates. And all of these things have to be done in a cohesive, consistent way showing that you have a plan of action because otherwise you're not signaling credibility to the market.
What advice do you have for President-elect Obama?
First of all, he has a great team. He doesn't need my advice; he has excellent people like Tim Geithner and Larry Summers?they are people that know markets, know policy, know the financial sector and the economy. The advice is essentially a combination of aggressive fiscal policy, more aggressive recapitalization of financial institutions, and plans to reduce the debt burden of the household sector, and the Fed continuing to do aggressive quantitative easing.
Are we headed for a depression?
I don't believe we are going to be in a depression?we could end up like Japan that had essentially economic stagnation for a decade with deflation.
You know, the "L"-shaped recession. At this point the "U"-shaped recession could turn into an "L"-shaped recession if we don't fix the financial system, and the credit crisis becomes worse and if we don't get a massive fiscal stimulus. So, a lot depends on our policy reaction. If our policy reaction is appropriate, by 2010 there will be some recovery of growth. The only risk is that the recovery of growth could be so weak that it feels like a recession even though we are technically out of it. So there is a risk of something like a Japanese-style, multiyear economic stagnation. I would not rule it out, but it is not my benchmark scenario. I think there is a one-third probability it will end up that way, but a two-thirds probability that we will end up in a severe, two-year-long recession. And that would be by any standard the worst recession that the U.S. has experienced in the last 60 years.
Whether or not it persists in 2010 will depend on how aggressive and effective policy actions are: monetary policy and fiscal policy and efforts to recapitalize financial institutions in the US and elsewhere.
He believes there could be a return to positive economic growth by 2010. The European Central Bank should follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates further. The US needs a plan to reduce the debt burden to US households. The remedies will cost tax payers a lot of money.
Does the U..S. dollar's December slide mean the USD has passed its peak?
Most likely not. The turn-of-the- year profit-taking on long USD positions creates a near-term blip in the dollar's uptrend but doesn't alter the medium-term trend of appreciation versus the euro. The four horseman of the carry trade apocalypse - Deleveraging, Risk Aversion, Growth Differentials and the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - would need to retreat before we see a sustained pullback in the EUR/USD from the slide to near-parity ($1.10-$1.30) . Governments, banks and other firms are still scrambling for dollars to repay their USD-denominated debt while signs of global recession and credit crisis spur on the flight-to-safety in U.S. Treasuries. European sovereign bonds offer an alternative but inferior safe haven because of the
European bond market's fragmentation and exposure to emerging Europe . More aggressive policy response in the U.S. compared to Europe , could bring the U.S. out of a recession faster than the Eurozone (though growth will most likely remain subdued for some years to come), supporting the dollar against the euro. In the longer term, however, once risk appetite revives, the greenback might lose its defenses in wake of worries surrounding U.S. public debt expansion and the potential inflationary effect of quantitative easing.
Luke Mullins of U.S. News & World Report recently interview the professor and the following is the text FYI.
Nouriel Roubini: The $700 Billion Bailout Isn't Enough - December 18, 2008
I spoke with the bearish?but prescient?economist Nouriel Roubini on Wednesday about what's in store for the economy, housing, and stock markets in 2009. Here's what he had to say:
What is your outlook for the length and depth of the recession?
My view is that that recession is going to continue at least through the end of 2009. It started in December 2007, so it's going to be 24 months long. It's going to be the longest we've had in the last 60 years. I expect a cumulative fall in output from the peak of 4 to 5 percent. Just to give you a sense, in the last recession, the cumulative fall in output was only 0.4 percent?this one is 10 times deeper. The unemployment rate will peak at above 9 percent sometime in 2010. And we're facing not just a U.S. recession but a global recession. There is a recession in all of the
advanced economies, and now there is the beginning of a hard landing also in the emerging markets.
What are the main factors behind the recession?
Initially, it was the excesses in the U.S. housing market, but we have discovered that those excesses were not limited only to housing. The household sector was highly leveraged?subprime, prime, credit cards, auto loans, student loans. There was a releveraging of the financial system, with massive amounts of excessive leverage and risk taking. That led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and, because of securitization, we spread it to the rest of the world. Also easy money from the Fed?they pushed down the federal funds rate and kept it too low for too long?and lax supervision of financial institutions played a role. So a number of different factors [triggered the crisis].
What's your outlook for housing?
Well, between 1996 and 2006, real home prices doubled. So just to go back to the previous level?without undershooting? you need a fall in real terms of 50 percent in home prices. You can achieve 40 percent of that through nominal falling home prices and 10 percent of it through inflation. That means that home prices have to fall at least 40 percent [from the peak].
And they have fallen, as of today, from their peak of 2006 by 25 percent. I expect them to fall at least another 15 percent or maybe even 20?so a cumulative fall in home prices in nominal terms of at least 40 percent, possibly 45. And the housing recession has not bottomed out. The data yesterday about housing starts and building permits suggested that it's a total disaster in housing, and there is no bottom to it. This is the worst housing recession since the Great Depression.
Do you think stocks have bottomed?
No, I don't think so. Of course, in the last few weeks we have been in another bear market rally, but bear market rallies have occurred for the last 12 months. Markets rally after shocks, and then shocks come and they fall further. But I see another downside to U.S. and global equities of at least 15 to 20 percent from current levels for three reasons. One is that the news about the economy?both in the U.S. and abroad?is going to be much worse then expected. The numbers have been just awful, and they are going to get worse. Two, there is still a lot of delusion about what earnings are going to be in 2009. And three, I think that there are going to be many more financial shocks, other large institutions going bust?highly leveraged
institutions like hedge funds.
The financial shocks are not over, and the credit losses are going to mount because they are spreading from subprime to prime to credit cards to auto loans to student loans to leveraged loans to municipal bonds to industrial and commercial loans to corporate bonds. We have to take about $2 trillion of credit losses and so far nearly half of it has been recognized. So I see another wave of massive credit losses that is going to worsen the credit crunch.
Would you say then that the credit crisis is at its halfway point?
Well, we're still in the middle of it. We are still in the deepest part of this credit crunch. Look at corporate credit spreads?they are unprecedented. We are nowhere near the bottom. The credit crunch is as painful now as it has been. And so far, everything the Fed has done in its massive quantitative easing has not made much of a difference as far as corporate credit spreads.
What is your opinion of the government's response to the credit crisis so far?
My first observation would be that even if they do everything right, the recession is going to proceed through the end of next year. I don't think that there is anything that the government can do at this point to reverse that. What they can do is to try to ensure that there is at least the beginning of an economic recovery toward the end of next year and into 2010. What needs to be done is actually many different things. The first thing is we need a huge fiscal stimulus because private demand, consumption, and spending are collapsing. So you need a huge stimulus?$500
billion to $700 billion of government spending in infrastructure, money to state and local governments, unemployment benefits. The usual range of things.
The second thing you need is to more aggressively recapitalize the financial institutions, not just banks but broker dealers, finance companies, and insurance companies. And there is only $350 billion of TARP [Treasury Asset Relief Program] money left. We are going to spend all of that, and we are going to need a TARP II because in order to cover all the losses you will need more than $1 trillion. Three, you need to reduce the debt burden of the households that are insolvent. Loan modifications are meaningless. You need debt reduction, similar to what we did during the Great Depression with the government buying up the mortgage, reducing its face value, and converting [the loans] from variable rates to long-term fixed rates. And all of these things have to be done in a cohesive, consistent way showing that you have a plan of action because otherwise you're not signaling credibility to the market.
What advice do you have for President-elect Obama?
First of all, he has a great team. He doesn't need my advice; he has excellent people like Tim Geithner and Larry Summers?they are people that know markets, know policy, know the financial sector and the economy. The advice is essentially a combination of aggressive fiscal policy, more aggressive recapitalization of financial institutions, and plans to reduce the debt burden of the household sector, and the Fed continuing to do aggressive quantitative easing.
Are we headed for a depression?
I don't believe we are going to be in a depression?we could end up like Japan that had essentially economic stagnation for a decade with deflation.
You know, the "L"-shaped recession. At this point the "U"-shaped recession could turn into an "L"-shaped recession if we don't fix the financial system, and the credit crisis becomes worse and if we don't get a massive fiscal stimulus. So, a lot depends on our policy reaction. If our policy reaction is appropriate, by 2010 there will be some recovery of growth. The only risk is that the recovery of growth could be so weak that it feels like a recession even though we are technically out of it. So there is a risk of something like a Japanese-style, multiyear economic stagnation. I would not rule it out, but it is not my benchmark scenario. I think there is a one-third probability it will end up that way, but a two-thirds probability that we will end up in a severe, two-year-long recession. And that would be by any standard the worst recession that the U.S. has experienced in the last 60 years.
巧用计然七策的投资之道
计然是春秋时期著名的战略家、思想家和经济学家,计然并不是其真名实姓,而是取善于计算运筹的意思。据说他是老子的弟子,博学多才,无所不通,尤长计算。《史记·货殖列传》说范蠡曾拜计然为师。他教给范蠡《贵流通》、《尚平均》、《戒滞停》等七策,这大约是中国古代最早的商业理论。范蠡学习了计然七策后,只用了其中五策,便使越国强盛,成为春秋五霸之一。
范蠡在感叹之余,认为计然七策既然用于治理国家有如此奇效,也应当可以用于成就自己的事业。于是,在灭吴后,范蠡携西施一同离开越国,到齐国自称鸱夷子皮,至陶邑(今山东陶县)改名为朱公。他运用计然七策,十九年之中三致千金。子孙继承其家业和经营之道,遂至巨万,所以后世都将陶朱公视为商人的祖师。
计然七策作为一种经营思想在证券市场中同样具有重要的应用价值:
论其有余不足,则知贵贱
这段话的意思是:怎样才能知道哪些货物会涨价和哪些会跌价呢?只要看这些货物的数量多少,或者说要看哪些过剩和哪些不足就可以知道其价格涨跌的情况。这里的“有余”就是“供过于求”,“不足”就是“供不应求”。供过于求则价格必落;反之,则价格必涨,这正是商品经济条件下的物价规律。早在两千多年前的杰出经济学家计然,就已充分认识到这一规律的存在。在两千年后的证券市场,这一规律仍在延续。
一方面,当市场容量较小,外围资金充足时,由于股票“供不应求”,因此,股价就会上涨;另一方面,当市场不断扩容,而外围资金不能保持同步放大时,股票相对于资金就“供过于求”,股价就会回落。国外成熟股市经过多年扩容后,市场容量过于庞大,有些个股长年累月乏人问津,甚至有的要通过缩股的方式才能保持几分钱的股价。这就是“有余”和“不足”造成的贵贱之分。
此外,在一轮涨升行情中,往往只有少数主流热点可以涨幅居前。即使是热点板块中的个股,在行情发展到一定阶段后也会出现分化。这是因为在一轮行情中,市场主流资金往往会选择某一热点进行集中突破。所以,少数热点类个股,相对于资金面是处于供不应求之中,因而股价会涨幅居前;而其余大多数个股相对于资金面是供过于求的,因而涨幅落后。
贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵
计然的这一理论思想表明其能够以辩证的思想去观察物价涨落的奥秘。“贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵”理论的意思是说,涨价的货物,涨到一定的程度,就会向其相反的方向发展,反之亦然。这种关于事物在发展过程中的“度”或“极限”的思想以及物极必反的观点,是典型的辩证思维。
在股市中,即使是业绩极为优良、最具有投资价值的个股,当它涨到一定程度时,也必然会滑落下来,近年来牛熊行情的转换,以及大量优质蓝筹股跟随指数下跌的市场表现就是一个很好的例子。这充分体现出“贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵”的市场规律。
贱买贵卖,加速周转
计然十分注重掌握市场变化的趋势,强调根据需求变化确定价格,加速资金的周转,“贱买贵卖,加速周转”是其主体经营思想。意即在东西价格低廉时买进,在价格高昂时卖出,并且想办法使资金像急流的水一样快速周转。
贱买贵卖,是投资者在证券市场中获取利润的根本途径,而加快资金周转速度,提高资金使用效率,一直是几千年来的工商业经营的基础之道。时至今日,资金周转率仍是考核企业经营效率的一项重要指标。加速周转也可以说是投资者在证券市场中争取最大化利润的有效方法。在股市的上涨行情中,投资者保持高效率的短线操作,常常能最大化地发挥资金利用效率,获取极丰厚的利润。但有的投资者操作手法过于保守,在资金不多的情况下,持有股票种类过多,常常因此延缓了资金周转速度,降低了投资收益。
贵出如粪土,贱取如珠玉
计然告诉治国者或商人,既要明白物以稀为贵和物极必反等规律,更要善于运用这些规律,大胆地作出决断。即当货物极贵之时,要能当机立断,把货物看成粪土一样尽可能地抛出;反之,当货物极贱的时候,要把货物看成珠玉一样尽可能地购进。
做到这点需要投资者有冷静的头脑和理性的思维,但是,相当多的投资者却喜欢涨时看涨、跌时看跌。股指稍一大涨就以为是突破性行情,股指刚一暴跌,就以为是熊市又回来了。有很多股评人士也是如此,当股市上涨时,大多数股评都看多,而股市下跌时,大多数股评又纷纷看空。这种情况造成股市上涨到高位时,投资者总是盲目追涨,而股市跌到低位时,投资者却恐慌性地割肉斩仓。
涨时看涨、跌时看跌是股民投资失败的主要原因之一,投资者必须克服这种思维惯性,切实做到:在股价上涨到一定高度,获利丰厚时,坚决将其卖出;当股价跌到一定深度时,要抵御各种利空消息的干扰,坚决地逢低买入,并且要像对待珍宝一样地爱惜手中的廉价筹码。
旱则资舟,水则资车
这里的“资”,是需要和购买的意思。这句话的意思是说:天气干旱,出现旱灾时要购买船只,当出现洪涝灾害时要购买车辆。从表面上看,好像与现实需要是相反的,是不切实际的经营思想,其实并非如此。因为天旱之后,可能会出现洪涝,洪涝之后也可能出现旱灾,都需要早做准备,以防不测,不要只看到眼前的旱灾和水灾,而要做好旱灾之后有水灾和水灾之后有旱灾的准备工作。投资者在证券市场中也必须充分兼顾到利和害的两个方面。在有利的情况下要看到不利的方面,这样才能解除可能发生的祸患;在不利的情况下要看到有利的方面,这样才能把握即将到来的机会。
“旱则资舟,水则资车”的思想还体现在把握适当时机,以低廉的价格买入别人暂时不需要的东西。在出现旱灾时,可以用很便宜的价格买入别人不需要的船只,等到出现水灾时,再高价卖给需要船只的人;在出现洪涝灾害时购买车辆,也是同样的道理。这种思想在股市中的具体运用原则就是:“牛市赚钱,熊市赚股。”在牛市中,人们看着日益高涨的股票,就争抢着追涨,而不看重现金,明智的投资者可以将股票卖出,赚取别人的资金。当熊市时,由于股票逐波下跌,人们会非常看重现金,而急着想卖出股票,这时,明智的投资者可以逢低用现金赚取别人割肉的廉价股票。
范蠡在感叹之余,认为计然七策既然用于治理国家有如此奇效,也应当可以用于成就自己的事业。于是,在灭吴后,范蠡携西施一同离开越国,到齐国自称鸱夷子皮,至陶邑(今山东陶县)改名为朱公。他运用计然七策,十九年之中三致千金。子孙继承其家业和经营之道,遂至巨万,所以后世都将陶朱公视为商人的祖师。
计然七策作为一种经营思想在证券市场中同样具有重要的应用价值:
论其有余不足,则知贵贱
这段话的意思是:怎样才能知道哪些货物会涨价和哪些会跌价呢?只要看这些货物的数量多少,或者说要看哪些过剩和哪些不足就可以知道其价格涨跌的情况。这里的“有余”就是“供过于求”,“不足”就是“供不应求”。供过于求则价格必落;反之,则价格必涨,这正是商品经济条件下的物价规律。早在两千多年前的杰出经济学家计然,就已充分认识到这一规律的存在。在两千年后的证券市场,这一规律仍在延续。
一方面,当市场容量较小,外围资金充足时,由于股票“供不应求”,因此,股价就会上涨;另一方面,当市场不断扩容,而外围资金不能保持同步放大时,股票相对于资金就“供过于求”,股价就会回落。国外成熟股市经过多年扩容后,市场容量过于庞大,有些个股长年累月乏人问津,甚至有的要通过缩股的方式才能保持几分钱的股价。这就是“有余”和“不足”造成的贵贱之分。
此外,在一轮涨升行情中,往往只有少数主流热点可以涨幅居前。即使是热点板块中的个股,在行情发展到一定阶段后也会出现分化。这是因为在一轮行情中,市场主流资金往往会选择某一热点进行集中突破。所以,少数热点类个股,相对于资金面是处于供不应求之中,因而股价会涨幅居前;而其余大多数个股相对于资金面是供过于求的,因而涨幅落后。
贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵
计然的这一理论思想表明其能够以辩证的思想去观察物价涨落的奥秘。“贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵”理论的意思是说,涨价的货物,涨到一定的程度,就会向其相反的方向发展,反之亦然。这种关于事物在发展过程中的“度”或“极限”的思想以及物极必反的观点,是典型的辩证思维。
在股市中,即使是业绩极为优良、最具有投资价值的个股,当它涨到一定程度时,也必然会滑落下来,近年来牛熊行情的转换,以及大量优质蓝筹股跟随指数下跌的市场表现就是一个很好的例子。这充分体现出“贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵”的市场规律。
贱买贵卖,加速周转
计然十分注重掌握市场变化的趋势,强调根据需求变化确定价格,加速资金的周转,“贱买贵卖,加速周转”是其主体经营思想。意即在东西价格低廉时买进,在价格高昂时卖出,并且想办法使资金像急流的水一样快速周转。
贱买贵卖,是投资者在证券市场中获取利润的根本途径,而加快资金周转速度,提高资金使用效率,一直是几千年来的工商业经营的基础之道。时至今日,资金周转率仍是考核企业经营效率的一项重要指标。加速周转也可以说是投资者在证券市场中争取最大化利润的有效方法。在股市的上涨行情中,投资者保持高效率的短线操作,常常能最大化地发挥资金利用效率,获取极丰厚的利润。但有的投资者操作手法过于保守,在资金不多的情况下,持有股票种类过多,常常因此延缓了资金周转速度,降低了投资收益。
贵出如粪土,贱取如珠玉
计然告诉治国者或商人,既要明白物以稀为贵和物极必反等规律,更要善于运用这些规律,大胆地作出决断。即当货物极贵之时,要能当机立断,把货物看成粪土一样尽可能地抛出;反之,当货物极贱的时候,要把货物看成珠玉一样尽可能地购进。
做到这点需要投资者有冷静的头脑和理性的思维,但是,相当多的投资者却喜欢涨时看涨、跌时看跌。股指稍一大涨就以为是突破性行情,股指刚一暴跌,就以为是熊市又回来了。有很多股评人士也是如此,当股市上涨时,大多数股评都看多,而股市下跌时,大多数股评又纷纷看空。这种情况造成股市上涨到高位时,投资者总是盲目追涨,而股市跌到低位时,投资者却恐慌性地割肉斩仓。
涨时看涨、跌时看跌是股民投资失败的主要原因之一,投资者必须克服这种思维惯性,切实做到:在股价上涨到一定高度,获利丰厚时,坚决将其卖出;当股价跌到一定深度时,要抵御各种利空消息的干扰,坚决地逢低买入,并且要像对待珍宝一样地爱惜手中的廉价筹码。
旱则资舟,水则资车
这里的“资”,是需要和购买的意思。这句话的意思是说:天气干旱,出现旱灾时要购买船只,当出现洪涝灾害时要购买车辆。从表面上看,好像与现实需要是相反的,是不切实际的经营思想,其实并非如此。因为天旱之后,可能会出现洪涝,洪涝之后也可能出现旱灾,都需要早做准备,以防不测,不要只看到眼前的旱灾和水灾,而要做好旱灾之后有水灾和水灾之后有旱灾的准备工作。投资者在证券市场中也必须充分兼顾到利和害的两个方面。在有利的情况下要看到不利的方面,这样才能解除可能发生的祸患;在不利的情况下要看到有利的方面,这样才能把握即将到来的机会。
“旱则资舟,水则资车”的思想还体现在把握适当时机,以低廉的价格买入别人暂时不需要的东西。在出现旱灾时,可以用很便宜的价格买入别人不需要的船只,等到出现水灾时,再高价卖给需要船只的人;在出现洪涝灾害时购买车辆,也是同样的道理。这种思想在股市中的具体运用原则就是:“牛市赚钱,熊市赚股。”在牛市中,人们看着日益高涨的股票,就争抢着追涨,而不看重现金,明智的投资者可以将股票卖出,赚取别人的资金。当熊市时,由于股票逐波下跌,人们会非常看重现金,而急着想卖出股票,这时,明智的投资者可以逢低用现金赚取别人割肉的廉价股票。
Monday, December 29, 2008
20 Dos & Don'ts for 2009
During the worst economic crisis in a lifetime, the right financial decisions are crucial.
BusinessWeek asked financial planners for some advice on what to do -- or not to do -- with your money in the New Year. As we bid farewell to a dreadful 2008, these "resolutions" may help keep your finances on the right track in 2009:
1. Don't try to predict the future.
"We are currently in the midst of unprecedented and complex challenges," says Femi Shote of Asset Harvest Group in McLean, Va. Anyone who thinks he or she can predict what's going to happen is "delusional," Shote says.
Financial advisers often hear from clients who would like to sell stocks now and then buy again when the market hits bottom. "My response is, 'How do you know when that will be?'" says Trent Porter of Priority Financial Planning in Fort Collins, Colo.
2. Do keep enough cash available.
Even if you're not worried about losing your job, a rainy-day fund can provide peace of mind.
There are different guidelines for how much cash to keep on hand. Some say $12,000 or more per adult; others say it should be six to nine months of living expenses. With extra cash available, you can avoid selling investments to pay for expenses in an emergency.
3. Do invest internationally.
Though the financial crisis started in the U.S., the past year has been worse for investments in the rest of the world. The MSCI EAFE, an index of international stocks, is down 43% this year, and stocks in emerging economies fared far worse. American investors who diversified abroad have also been pummeled by the rise in the U.S. dollar.
Even after a year like that, advisers say it's not wise to abandon international investments entirely. For one thing, though some key overseas economies, like China's, have been hit hard lately, their long-term economic fundamentals look better than those of the U.S.
4. Don't try to pick one winning investment. Diversify.
Putting all your money in one stock is dangerous at a time when a company's bankruptcy can completely wipe out the value of its shares.
Robert Siegmann of Financial Management Group in Cincinnati advises clients to balance their portfolios between fixed income and stocks, with shares in various types of companies -- small and large, U.S. and international. "Don't try to pick the winning stock, or the winning idea. Just diversify across all investments and markets," he says.
5. Do think about energy efficiency.
Russell Francis of Portland Financial Advisors in Beaverton, Ore., recommends that investors take advantage of a $500 federal residential energy tax credit that was rescinded in 2008 but returns in 2009. The credit can help cover the costs of adding insulation or replacing doors, windows, or furnaces -- home repairs that should also save you on heating and cooling costs.
6. Don't stop contributing to 401(k) and other retirement accounts.
Says Sidney Blum of GreenLight Fee Only Advisors in Evanston, Ill.: "Everyone loves to invest in their 401(k) when the markets are flying high, but they should keep putting money in while the markets are down." He adds: "More money is made at the bottom of a market than at the top."
Even more pessimistic planners say you should be taking advantage of any match your employer offers for retirement fund contributions.
7. Do live below your means. Save.
Investing for the future is only possible if you have some money left over at the end of each month to sock away. View this BusinessWeek slide show for 25 ways to save more each month.
8. Don't make sudden moves.
"Refrain from making extreme changes to the portfolio just because the financial markets are volatile," says William Howell, a financial adviser in Noblesville, Ind. "Stick to the overall investment game plan."
In such an extreme environment, investment decisions based on emotion or fear are likely to lose you money. It's probably better to ignore the day-to-day news and follow a long-term investing plan.
9. Do pay off expensive debts.
Rather than investing your money, you first might consider paying off debts, especially those with high rates or those for which interest is not tax-deductible. The avoidance of interest will likely save you more than your investments would have earned.
Stanley F. Ehrlich, an adviser in Westfield, N.J., notes: "Paying off a car loan with 7% interest provides an immediate 7% return, a return that is not (currently) available through most asset classes." Credit-card debt is so expensive that most planners say it is always the first thing people should pay off.
10. Don't give up on stocks.
"Historically some of the best periods for stock market returns have been during dismal economic times," says Paul Winter of Five Seasons Financial Planning in Salt Lake City. Though investors approaching retirement shouldn't risk too much money in volatile equity markets, investors hoping to build a nest egg for the long term have few better options than the stock market.
11. Do track your spending.
"It's very easy to lose sight of where your funds are spent," says Alexandra Ollinger of Truepoint Capital in Cincinnati.
G.M. Livingston III, a planner in Santa Rosa Beach, Fla., advises clients to buy software like Quicken to track their spending. "It's a universal mistake," Livingston says. "Most people don't know where their money goes."
12. Don't pay high management fees.
It doesn't only matter how much your investments earn; it is also important how much you get to keep after trading costs and fees paid to financial advisers and fund managers. When market returns are small or nonexistent, even a 1% or 2% management fee can hurt. Decide if it's worth it. Also, check out offerings from traditionally low-cost fund companies like Vanguard, where the average mutual fund expense ratio is 0.2%.
13. Do review your credit reports.
With the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate close to zero and policymakers eager to revive the housing market, mortgage rates are expected to drop substantially in 2009. That could be a great opportunity to refinance your mortgage, but only if you have a solid credit score. Check your credit report for any errors now, says Scott Beaudin of Pathway Financial Advisors in Burlington, Vt. "Fixing problems takes time and you don't want to be trying to fix your report while in the middle of a mortgage application," he says. The three U.S. consumer reporting agencies set up a Web site, to allow consumers to access a free copy of their credit report each year.
14. Don't follow the herd.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," says legendary investor Warren Buffett. Warren Ward, an adviser in Columbus, Ind., agrees, advising his clients to ease back into stock or bond markets rather than seeking the safety of cash or Treasuries as many other investors are doing now. "Do your own thinking and don't allow yourself to be panicked into taking an action you'll regret," Ward says.
15. Do write down an investing plan and budget, and stick to them.
A budget can help control spending and boost the amount of money you save each month. An investing plan takes the emotion out of your investing decision. "Investing systematically (is) especially (important) during market downturns," Ward says.
16. Don't forgo necessary insurance.
You can save some money by increasing your car insurance deductible or forgoing life, disability or home insurance, but you could also be left penniless after a serious emergency. Full coverage isn't always necessary, but make sure you're protected in a worst-case scenario.
17. Do check out your financial adviser.
The arrest of Bernard Madoff, who saw his $50 billion hedge fund collapse in an alleged Ponzi scheme, shows the danger of relying on one person -- whether a fund manager or a financial planner and adviser -- to handle your nest egg.
Don't just pick a broker or planner out of the yellow pages. "Do your homework," says Eileen Freiburger of ESF Financial Planning Group in Manhattan Beach, Calif. Ask advisers about their qualifications, certifications, and educations, as well as their fees, ethics and disclosure policies. Look them up in online databases that track complaints against planners. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority's BrokerCheck is a good place to start.
18. Don't invest in anything you don't understand.
This financial crisis has demonstrated the dangers of too much complexity in the investing world. Investors lost big on asset-backed securities and other investments that in many cases they never really understood in the first place. If your adviser or broker can't adequately explain an investment in a few sentences, maybe it's not for you.
19. Do make sure safe investments are actually safe.
J. Mark Joseph of Sentinel Wealth Management in Reston, Va., sticks with supersafe government debt for his clients' fixed-income investments. "Bonds are for safety, so make sure your bonds are safe," he says. "Just because something is a fixed-income investment does not mean it is safe."
In case your bank or broker fails, make sure your bank accounts are covered by insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and your brokerage accounts by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation or supplemental insurance.
20. Don't take more risk than you can handle.
Some investors will react to 2008's losses by trying to be more prudent and conservative in the future. Others, however, will try to win back their losses through bold, risky bets on the next big thing.
That's happened in past downturns, says Elaine Scoggins of Merriman Berkman Next in Seattle. After the tech bubble burst, investors flocked to real estate. A classic mistake is "following one investing mistake by an even bigger one."
The past year has given investors an idea of how bad market conditions can get. In the future, investors may want to evaluate how much risk they're really willing to take and how long they're willing to wait to get outsize returns.
BusinessWeek asked financial planners for some advice on what to do -- or not to do -- with your money in the New Year. As we bid farewell to a dreadful 2008, these "resolutions" may help keep your finances on the right track in 2009:
1. Don't try to predict the future.
"We are currently in the midst of unprecedented and complex challenges," says Femi Shote of Asset Harvest Group in McLean, Va. Anyone who thinks he or she can predict what's going to happen is "delusional," Shote says.
Financial advisers often hear from clients who would like to sell stocks now and then buy again when the market hits bottom. "My response is, 'How do you know when that will be?'" says Trent Porter of Priority Financial Planning in Fort Collins, Colo.
2. Do keep enough cash available.
Even if you're not worried about losing your job, a rainy-day fund can provide peace of mind.
There are different guidelines for how much cash to keep on hand. Some say $12,000 or more per adult; others say it should be six to nine months of living expenses. With extra cash available, you can avoid selling investments to pay for expenses in an emergency.
3. Do invest internationally.
Though the financial crisis started in the U.S., the past year has been worse for investments in the rest of the world. The MSCI EAFE, an index of international stocks, is down 43% this year, and stocks in emerging economies fared far worse. American investors who diversified abroad have also been pummeled by the rise in the U.S. dollar.
Even after a year like that, advisers say it's not wise to abandon international investments entirely. For one thing, though some key overseas economies, like China's, have been hit hard lately, their long-term economic fundamentals look better than those of the U.S.
4. Don't try to pick one winning investment. Diversify.
Putting all your money in one stock is dangerous at a time when a company's bankruptcy can completely wipe out the value of its shares.
Robert Siegmann of Financial Management Group in Cincinnati advises clients to balance their portfolios between fixed income and stocks, with shares in various types of companies -- small and large, U.S. and international. "Don't try to pick the winning stock, or the winning idea. Just diversify across all investments and markets," he says.
5. Do think about energy efficiency.
Russell Francis of Portland Financial Advisors in Beaverton, Ore., recommends that investors take advantage of a $500 federal residential energy tax credit that was rescinded in 2008 but returns in 2009. The credit can help cover the costs of adding insulation or replacing doors, windows, or furnaces -- home repairs that should also save you on heating and cooling costs.
6. Don't stop contributing to 401(k) and other retirement accounts.
Says Sidney Blum of GreenLight Fee Only Advisors in Evanston, Ill.: "Everyone loves to invest in their 401(k) when the markets are flying high, but they should keep putting money in while the markets are down." He adds: "More money is made at the bottom of a market than at the top."
Even more pessimistic planners say you should be taking advantage of any match your employer offers for retirement fund contributions.
7. Do live below your means. Save.
Investing for the future is only possible if you have some money left over at the end of each month to sock away. View this BusinessWeek slide show for 25 ways to save more each month.
8. Don't make sudden moves.
"Refrain from making extreme changes to the portfolio just because the financial markets are volatile," says William Howell, a financial adviser in Noblesville, Ind. "Stick to the overall investment game plan."
In such an extreme environment, investment decisions based on emotion or fear are likely to lose you money. It's probably better to ignore the day-to-day news and follow a long-term investing plan.
9. Do pay off expensive debts.
Rather than investing your money, you first might consider paying off debts, especially those with high rates or those for which interest is not tax-deductible. The avoidance of interest will likely save you more than your investments would have earned.
Stanley F. Ehrlich, an adviser in Westfield, N.J., notes: "Paying off a car loan with 7% interest provides an immediate 7% return, a return that is not (currently) available through most asset classes." Credit-card debt is so expensive that most planners say it is always the first thing people should pay off.
10. Don't give up on stocks.
"Historically some of the best periods for stock market returns have been during dismal economic times," says Paul Winter of Five Seasons Financial Planning in Salt Lake City. Though investors approaching retirement shouldn't risk too much money in volatile equity markets, investors hoping to build a nest egg for the long term have few better options than the stock market.
11. Do track your spending.
"It's very easy to lose sight of where your funds are spent," says Alexandra Ollinger of Truepoint Capital in Cincinnati.
G.M. Livingston III, a planner in Santa Rosa Beach, Fla., advises clients to buy software like Quicken to track their spending. "It's a universal mistake," Livingston says. "Most people don't know where their money goes."
12. Don't pay high management fees.
It doesn't only matter how much your investments earn; it is also important how much you get to keep after trading costs and fees paid to financial advisers and fund managers. When market returns are small or nonexistent, even a 1% or 2% management fee can hurt. Decide if it's worth it. Also, check out offerings from traditionally low-cost fund companies like Vanguard, where the average mutual fund expense ratio is 0.2%.
13. Do review your credit reports.
With the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate close to zero and policymakers eager to revive the housing market, mortgage rates are expected to drop substantially in 2009. That could be a great opportunity to refinance your mortgage, but only if you have a solid credit score. Check your credit report for any errors now, says Scott Beaudin of Pathway Financial Advisors in Burlington, Vt. "Fixing problems takes time and you don't want to be trying to fix your report while in the middle of a mortgage application," he says. The three U.S. consumer reporting agencies set up a Web site, to allow consumers to access a free copy of their credit report each year.
14. Don't follow the herd.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," says legendary investor Warren Buffett. Warren Ward, an adviser in Columbus, Ind., agrees, advising his clients to ease back into stock or bond markets rather than seeking the safety of cash or Treasuries as many other investors are doing now. "Do your own thinking and don't allow yourself to be panicked into taking an action you'll regret," Ward says.
15. Do write down an investing plan and budget, and stick to them.
A budget can help control spending and boost the amount of money you save each month. An investing plan takes the emotion out of your investing decision. "Investing systematically (is) especially (important) during market downturns," Ward says.
16. Don't forgo necessary insurance.
You can save some money by increasing your car insurance deductible or forgoing life, disability or home insurance, but you could also be left penniless after a serious emergency. Full coverage isn't always necessary, but make sure you're protected in a worst-case scenario.
17. Do check out your financial adviser.
The arrest of Bernard Madoff, who saw his $50 billion hedge fund collapse in an alleged Ponzi scheme, shows the danger of relying on one person -- whether a fund manager or a financial planner and adviser -- to handle your nest egg.
Don't just pick a broker or planner out of the yellow pages. "Do your homework," says Eileen Freiburger of ESF Financial Planning Group in Manhattan Beach, Calif. Ask advisers about their qualifications, certifications, and educations, as well as their fees, ethics and disclosure policies. Look them up in online databases that track complaints against planners. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority's BrokerCheck is a good place to start.
18. Don't invest in anything you don't understand.
This financial crisis has demonstrated the dangers of too much complexity in the investing world. Investors lost big on asset-backed securities and other investments that in many cases they never really understood in the first place. If your adviser or broker can't adequately explain an investment in a few sentences, maybe it's not for you.
19. Do make sure safe investments are actually safe.
J. Mark Joseph of Sentinel Wealth Management in Reston, Va., sticks with supersafe government debt for his clients' fixed-income investments. "Bonds are for safety, so make sure your bonds are safe," he says. "Just because something is a fixed-income investment does not mean it is safe."
In case your bank or broker fails, make sure your bank accounts are covered by insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and your brokerage accounts by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation or supplemental insurance.
20. Don't take more risk than you can handle.
Some investors will react to 2008's losses by trying to be more prudent and conservative in the future. Others, however, will try to win back their losses through bold, risky bets on the next big thing.
That's happened in past downturns, says Elaine Scoggins of Merriman Berkman Next in Seattle. After the tech bubble burst, investors flocked to real estate. A classic mistake is "following one investing mistake by an even bigger one."
The past year has given investors an idea of how bad market conditions can get. In the future, investors may want to evaluate how much risk they're really willing to take and how long they're willing to wait to get outsize returns.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Private properties looking attractive
THE recession has resulted in a 25-per-cent fall in private- property prices from their market peak, and with prices expected to dip further next year, there may be opportunities to pick up some bargains.
However, buyers of properties - whether for investment or occupancy - should do their homework before committing to such big-ticket items.
Here are 10 tips to keep firmly in mind.
1 CONSIDER LANDED
The executive director of HSR Property Group, Mr Eric Cheng, feels that if buyers are willing to fork out $1.2 million to $1.3million for a condominium, they should consider buying landed property instead.
Due to land scarcity in Singapore, there is always more demand than supply for landed property, which is not the case with condos, said Mr Cheng.
2 INSTALMENT RESERVE
Mr Cheng said it is important to invest within your means. Have a reserve of at least one year's worth of instalments in case of shocks, like a loss of income.
3 LEASING OR LIVING?
Mr Arvin Sylvester Lim, division director of Century 21 SHL Realty, said it is important to be sure if you plan to live in the property or rent it out.
If you are making it your home, the equation is simple: Find something that you like and can afford.
If you are looking to invest and rent out, do your research to see if there is good demand in an area, and if the rent will be enough to cover the instalment payment and still allow a profit.
4 DON'T WAIT TOO LONG
While one should hold back until one finds something ideal, Mr Lim does not encourage overspeculating on trends.
"Buying a house is not like buying a car. The moment you drive the car...the value drops, but with property the value can go up or down," he said.
Even though prices are expected to fall further, "a home is a must", Mr Lim said. He advises against pegging buying one to unpredictable market movements.
5 MAKE OFFERS FAST
Buyers who bought too many properties or can't afford to keep up with payments, given the weak economy, will be selling off their investments now, said Mr Shannan Govindarajoo, marketing manager at ERA.
He suggests you start looking and making reasonable offers as he thinks more buyers will be entering the market, which could mean prices for these "must-sell" properties may rise.
6 CHECK MASTER PLAN
Look at the Urban Redevelopment Authority's master plan and invest where the Government is pumping in money, said Mr Govindarajoo.
For instance, he thinks those interested in the Marina area should strike now, as prices are down by 40 per cent, compared to last year's.
Mr Lim said investing in property in that area will reap great returns when the integrated resort is ready as "a lot of the management staff will be living there, so rentals will be high".
7 SHOP FOR A LOAN
Banks are now becoming more cautious with making home loans and how much they are willing to lend, said Mr Govindarajoo.
He advised shopping around for a good home loan first, so that you do not commit yourself to a seller before knowing how much you have to work with.
8 PRICE VS VALUATION
Check the valuations of the property you are considering at different banks to make sure you?re getting a good deal, said Mr Govindarajoo.
9 OLDER CONDOS
Mr Parthiban Sadagopal, a Prop- Nex realtor, suggests buying a condo "between seven and 10 years old in the outskirts", like Pasir Ris or Tampines.
Judging from the trend seen after the 2003 recession, such condos are good buys for living in and investment, as you could hope to buy one at $400,000 to $500,000 now and sell it for up to $800,000 when the economy picks up.
Renting it out could fetch $3,000 a month as well.
10 DISTRICT 15
Keep your sights on the East Coast area of District 15, said Mr Cheng, as prices there are unlikely to dip drastically.
Good schools, malls and eateries add value, making it a good option for those who feel prime locations are too expensive. Meyer Road, Ceylon Road, Telok Kurau and Crane Road are some of the best places to buy a house, according to him.
Mr Govindarajoo agrees, saying District 15 is "evergreen".
However, buyers of properties - whether for investment or occupancy - should do their homework before committing to such big-ticket items.
Here are 10 tips to keep firmly in mind.
1 CONSIDER LANDED
The executive director of HSR Property Group, Mr Eric Cheng, feels that if buyers are willing to fork out $1.2 million to $1.3million for a condominium, they should consider buying landed property instead.
Due to land scarcity in Singapore, there is always more demand than supply for landed property, which is not the case with condos, said Mr Cheng.
2 INSTALMENT RESERVE
Mr Cheng said it is important to invest within your means. Have a reserve of at least one year's worth of instalments in case of shocks, like a loss of income.
3 LEASING OR LIVING?
Mr Arvin Sylvester Lim, division director of Century 21 SHL Realty, said it is important to be sure if you plan to live in the property or rent it out.
If you are making it your home, the equation is simple: Find something that you like and can afford.
If you are looking to invest and rent out, do your research to see if there is good demand in an area, and if the rent will be enough to cover the instalment payment and still allow a profit.
4 DON'T WAIT TOO LONG
While one should hold back until one finds something ideal, Mr Lim does not encourage overspeculating on trends.
"Buying a house is not like buying a car. The moment you drive the car...the value drops, but with property the value can go up or down," he said.
Even though prices are expected to fall further, "a home is a must", Mr Lim said. He advises against pegging buying one to unpredictable market movements.
5 MAKE OFFERS FAST
Buyers who bought too many properties or can't afford to keep up with payments, given the weak economy, will be selling off their investments now, said Mr Shannan Govindarajoo, marketing manager at ERA.
He suggests you start looking and making reasonable offers as he thinks more buyers will be entering the market, which could mean prices for these "must-sell" properties may rise.
6 CHECK MASTER PLAN
Look at the Urban Redevelopment Authority's master plan and invest where the Government is pumping in money, said Mr Govindarajoo.
For instance, he thinks those interested in the Marina area should strike now, as prices are down by 40 per cent, compared to last year's.
Mr Lim said investing in property in that area will reap great returns when the integrated resort is ready as "a lot of the management staff will be living there, so rentals will be high".
7 SHOP FOR A LOAN
Banks are now becoming more cautious with making home loans and how much they are willing to lend, said Mr Govindarajoo.
He advised shopping around for a good home loan first, so that you do not commit yourself to a seller before knowing how much you have to work with.
8 PRICE VS VALUATION
Check the valuations of the property you are considering at different banks to make sure you?re getting a good deal, said Mr Govindarajoo.
9 OLDER CONDOS
Mr Parthiban Sadagopal, a Prop- Nex realtor, suggests buying a condo "between seven and 10 years old in the outskirts", like Pasir Ris or Tampines.
Judging from the trend seen after the 2003 recession, such condos are good buys for living in and investment, as you could hope to buy one at $400,000 to $500,000 now and sell it for up to $800,000 when the economy picks up.
Renting it out could fetch $3,000 a month as well.
10 DISTRICT 15
Keep your sights on the East Coast area of District 15, said Mr Cheng, as prices there are unlikely to dip drastically.
Good schools, malls and eateries add value, making it a good option for those who feel prime locations are too expensive. Meyer Road, Ceylon Road, Telok Kurau and Crane Road are some of the best places to buy a house, according to him.
Mr Govindarajoo agrees, saying District 15 is "evergreen".
胡立阳名言
1.不要听“亲朋好友”的话，他们只会让你成为“平凡人”。
2.不要只会“用功读书”，重要的是“要读对书”。
3．不要只是“努力工作”，重要的是“做对工作”。
4.不要只是结交“志趣相投”的朋友，否则你永远只看到“一半”的世界。
5.不要只是“安分守己”等待升迁，要像下跳棋一样想办法“一步登天”。
6.不要只是“准备好了等机会”，主动“制造机会”才能捷足先登。
7.不要以为“钱不会从天上掉下來”，只是你必须“站对地方”接。
8.不要只会“正面思考”，要“逆向思考”，“不正常”的人才能出人头地。
9.在股市中，别人因为紧张而犯的每一个错误，都是在辛辛苦苦的为您累计财富。
2.不要只会“用功读书”，重要的是“要读对书”。
3．不要只是“努力工作”，重要的是“做对工作”。
4.不要只是结交“志趣相投”的朋友，否则你永远只看到“一半”的世界。
5.不要只是“安分守己”等待升迁，要像下跳棋一样想办法“一步登天”。
6.不要只是“准备好了等机会”，主动“制造机会”才能捷足先登。
7.不要以为“钱不会从天上掉下來”，只是你必须“站对地方”接。
8.不要只会“正面思考”，要“逆向思考”，“不正常”的人才能出人头地。
9.在股市中，别人因为紧张而犯的每一个错误，都是在辛辛苦苦的为您累计财富。
Saturday, December 27, 2008
财经人物:麦嘉华 - 美元美债泡沫势将爆破 买金防身
今年凡有投资股票、地产、商品或外币的人，都输得人仰马翻。有“末日博士”之称的着名投资者麦嘉华（Marc Faber）说，由2002年至2007年，全球的商品、股票及房地产出现泡沫，至2008年一一爆破。
目前只剩下两大泡沫，一是美国国债，二是美元，他相信在明年或最迟2010年，这两大泡沫将会爆破。慎防美元大泻，是时候买黄金。
伯南克 危险人物
过去3个月，美国政府已动用数以万亿美元计的资金去救市。当问到美国政府的举措，有没有超出预期时，麦嘉华不假思索地说没有。“若你有看过伯南克（联储局主席）所写的东西，你就会觉得一切都是预期之内，他是个印钞票的人（Money Printer ），是个危险人物。”
他估计美国政府明年赤字将达破天荒的2万亿美元（相当於美国GDP 的14％），麦嘉华说这总要有人付代价。
“全球政府都在印银纸及搞财政赤字，至2010或2011年，通胀将会很厉害。到时经济仍很低迷，但通胀劲升，情势有如目前的津巴布韦一样。”（津巴布韦月初刚发行1 亿元钞票，估计通胀率达2.3 亿倍。）
“现在买美国10年期国债，周息连3%也没有，但日后通胀率可能达10% ，持有国债的人，便是要付代价的人。”
一味减息救市制造泡沫
自雷曼事件之后，金融市场陷入恐慌，银行等金融机构及基金公司，不敢冒风险，资金纷纷涌往被认为最安全的美国国债市场，令到债价不断上升，周息率更也回落。
麦嘉华说美国今天的祸根，早在1998年救对长期资本基金（LTCM）已经种下来。
“若当年不救长期资本基金，雷曼、高盛、摩根士丹利等就会损手，过去10年便会变得较审慎，不会把他们的业务无限地扩大。”
同样伯南克去年9月为救经济，大手减息，亦令到原本仍然正正常常的石油及商品价格，疯狂起来，连同澳元等商品货币一齐乱舞，至今年7 月泡沫齐齐爆破。
“这样的大波动，必然有很多公司输大钱。”
麦嘉华相信，无论是中国还是美国，政府推救市措施最多是3至6个月内见点效，长远对振兴经济帮助不大。
“你看日本政府搞了十多年，现在日经平均指数仍在创26年新低。”
他说，以美国经济的问题那么严重来看，未来10年联储局都难以大幅加息，实质利率（即银行存款息率减去通胀率）都会持续是负数，持有美元存款或债券，只会跑输通胀。
因此，他建议大家在投资组合中买点金，来抗衡将会来临的恶性通胀。
“金的生产商始终有限，不像美元，他们不断在印银纸，你手上的钞票便愈来愈不值钱。金和银都是吸引的投资。”
自言无水晶球 分散投资为妙
从事财经分析的人都有点趾高气扬，因为他们都认为自己手持水晶球。坐在记者对面的麦嘉华却诉说自己在股票的投资今年与很多朋友都一样，损失最少五成。
“你有没有后悔没有及时把手上的股票沽出？“他回答说：“没有。在人生当中，你要明白你对於未来知道得很少，因此，最重要是分散投资，要有股票、物业……特别是在这个政策市。”
麦嘉华说今年总的来说都有赚钱，当中有些是看对了美元及黄金的走向。现时约有8 ％投资於股票，在这个股票投资组合中损失了一半，另有8％手持黄金，1％为澳元，尚有一些物业投资，大部分为现金（包括高评级债券）。
投资大贬值一笑置之
及时出售有时是投资重要法门，不过，要做到又谈何容易？
麦嘉华与朋友在越南开设了资产管理公司，他持有一成股权。18个月前他估计可以以3亿美元出售，但朋友觉得可待更高价才沽出，结果现在可能只值3000万美元。
对这一跌，麦嘉华只是笑笑，没有太上心，或许这跟他的滑雪背景有关。年轻时的他，曾是国家滑雪队成员，对於速度与下滑应该颇为习惯！
重货者宜趁反弹沽出
麦嘉华相信，由现在至明年3月，资金会重投股市，令环球股市出现一次熊市反弹。但他认为经济仍未见底，持有股票的还是应该趁反弹沽货。
“若你持有100%现金，我会建议你在现水平拿10% 来买股票，当股价再跌20%，便可增持至20%，但若你100%都是股票，我便劝你在反弹时沽货。”
即使持有70%股票，他也不认同现在是买股票的时候。
虽然看好股票短线表现，但他坦言没有十足把握。“现在差不多所有人都相信有反弹。所有人都这样说，而又成为事实，并不常见。所以，我也带点怀疑。”
麦嘉华认为，市场对中国过份乐观。
“过去多年，借贷利率只有7%，而实质经济增长达12% ，这环境制造了过多投资。当美国的消费减低5%，最伤的不是美国。因为美国人消费的东西，都不是在美国生产的，而是在亚洲生产的，亚洲出口会大跌。由2002年至2007年不断扩张的厂房和船队，便会出现供应过剩。”
人烟隔绝专心财经写作 家住清迈“我不想见人”
麦嘉华现时居住在泰国北部的清迈，记者好奇地问他为何选择住在清迈，答案有点出其不意：“因为我不想见人。”
“如果我住在香港，会有很多人想与我见面。我根本没有这时间，每天收到好几百个电邮，要处理的也有50个，每天我要花3 至4 个小时在回覆电邮。而我们这类要写东西的人，要有一个地方，让其他人找不到我，好让我可以专心写东西。”
结果清迈成为麦嘉华避世的地方，可能要在这样一个偏处一隅的城市，才能令他冷静地看透世情，为他的客户撰写分析报告。除了不用见人之外，他选择清迈还有另一个原因，就是因为物价较低。“我在那里建屋的价钱，在香港可能要贵上20倍。”
麦嘉华在2000年以25万美元，在清迈买了一幅河边的地块，然后用30万美元翻新其上的两家泰式房屋，共4000呎楼面。同时在其旁用50万美元，兴建一幢有5000呎楼面的小办公楼。在香港他只在国金二期保留了一个很小的办公室。
钟情湾仔酒吧
最近他太太在曼谷找到工作，搬了到曼谷住，两夫妻一年之中聚少离多。
但他有点自得其乐：“这对我可能更好。”
要四处公干的麦嘉华，其实每月也只有约一星期留在他在清迈的家。其余时间，要四处跑，包括约每两三个本周星座财运月，会短暂停留香港一至两天。
逗留在香港时，他会选择入住湾仔一家酒店，因为他最欣赏的，就是湾仔一带的酒吧及鱼蛋粉。
末日博士绰号何来？
当麦嘉华还在Drexel Burnham Lambert任职时，在1987年10月19日美股急跌前一周呼吁客户沽售美股，结果恒指在10月19日当天急挫，单日跌11％，之后停市四天，甫开市便再跌33％，道琼斯工业平均指数在10月19日当天，单日跌23％，这为他赢得“末日博士”的称号。
目前只剩下两大泡沫，一是美国国债，二是美元，他相信在明年或最迟2010年，这两大泡沫将会爆破。慎防美元大泻，是时候买黄金。
伯南克 危险人物
过去3个月，美国政府已动用数以万亿美元计的资金去救市。当问到美国政府的举措，有没有超出预期时，麦嘉华不假思索地说没有。“若你有看过伯南克（联储局主席）所写的东西，你就会觉得一切都是预期之内，他是个印钞票的人（Money Printer ），是个危险人物。”
他估计美国政府明年赤字将达破天荒的2万亿美元（相当於美国GDP 的14％），麦嘉华说这总要有人付代价。
“全球政府都在印银纸及搞财政赤字，至2010或2011年，通胀将会很厉害。到时经济仍很低迷，但通胀劲升，情势有如目前的津巴布韦一样。”（津巴布韦月初刚发行1 亿元钞票，估计通胀率达2.3 亿倍。）
“现在买美国10年期国债，周息连3%也没有，但日后通胀率可能达10% ，持有国债的人，便是要付代价的人。”
一味减息救市制造泡沫
自雷曼事件之后，金融市场陷入恐慌，银行等金融机构及基金公司，不敢冒风险，资金纷纷涌往被认为最安全的美国国债市场，令到债价不断上升，周息率更也回落。
麦嘉华说美国今天的祸根，早在1998年救对长期资本基金（LTCM）已经种下来。
“若当年不救长期资本基金，雷曼、高盛、摩根士丹利等就会损手，过去10年便会变得较审慎，不会把他们的业务无限地扩大。”
同样伯南克去年9月为救经济，大手减息，亦令到原本仍然正正常常的石油及商品价格，疯狂起来，连同澳元等商品货币一齐乱舞，至今年7 月泡沫齐齐爆破。
“这样的大波动，必然有很多公司输大钱。”
麦嘉华相信，无论是中国还是美国，政府推救市措施最多是3至6个月内见点效，长远对振兴经济帮助不大。
“你看日本政府搞了十多年，现在日经平均指数仍在创26年新低。”
他说，以美国经济的问题那么严重来看，未来10年联储局都难以大幅加息，实质利率（即银行存款息率减去通胀率）都会持续是负数，持有美元存款或债券，只会跑输通胀。
因此，他建议大家在投资组合中买点金，来抗衡将会来临的恶性通胀。
“金的生产商始终有限，不像美元，他们不断在印银纸，你手上的钞票便愈来愈不值钱。金和银都是吸引的投资。”
自言无水晶球 分散投资为妙
从事财经分析的人都有点趾高气扬，因为他们都认为自己手持水晶球。坐在记者对面的麦嘉华却诉说自己在股票的投资今年与很多朋友都一样，损失最少五成。
“你有没有后悔没有及时把手上的股票沽出？“他回答说：“没有。在人生当中，你要明白你对於未来知道得很少，因此，最重要是分散投资，要有股票、物业……特别是在这个政策市。”
麦嘉华说今年总的来说都有赚钱，当中有些是看对了美元及黄金的走向。现时约有8 ％投资於股票，在这个股票投资组合中损失了一半，另有8％手持黄金，1％为澳元，尚有一些物业投资，大部分为现金（包括高评级债券）。
投资大贬值一笑置之
及时出售有时是投资重要法门，不过，要做到又谈何容易？
麦嘉华与朋友在越南开设了资产管理公司，他持有一成股权。18个月前他估计可以以3亿美元出售，但朋友觉得可待更高价才沽出，结果现在可能只值3000万美元。
对这一跌，麦嘉华只是笑笑，没有太上心，或许这跟他的滑雪背景有关。年轻时的他，曾是国家滑雪队成员，对於速度与下滑应该颇为习惯！
重货者宜趁反弹沽出
麦嘉华相信，由现在至明年3月，资金会重投股市，令环球股市出现一次熊市反弹。但他认为经济仍未见底，持有股票的还是应该趁反弹沽货。
“若你持有100%现金，我会建议你在现水平拿10% 来买股票，当股价再跌20%，便可增持至20%，但若你100%都是股票，我便劝你在反弹时沽货。”
即使持有70%股票，他也不认同现在是买股票的时候。
虽然看好股票短线表现，但他坦言没有十足把握。“现在差不多所有人都相信有反弹。所有人都这样说，而又成为事实，并不常见。所以，我也带点怀疑。”
麦嘉华认为，市场对中国过份乐观。
“过去多年，借贷利率只有7%，而实质经济增长达12% ，这环境制造了过多投资。当美国的消费减低5%，最伤的不是美国。因为美国人消费的东西，都不是在美国生产的，而是在亚洲生产的，亚洲出口会大跌。由2002年至2007年不断扩张的厂房和船队，便会出现供应过剩。”
人烟隔绝专心财经写作 家住清迈“我不想见人”
麦嘉华现时居住在泰国北部的清迈，记者好奇地问他为何选择住在清迈，答案有点出其不意：“因为我不想见人。”
“如果我住在香港，会有很多人想与我见面。我根本没有这时间，每天收到好几百个电邮，要处理的也有50个，每天我要花3 至4 个小时在回覆电邮。而我们这类要写东西的人，要有一个地方，让其他人找不到我，好让我可以专心写东西。”
结果清迈成为麦嘉华避世的地方，可能要在这样一个偏处一隅的城市，才能令他冷静地看透世情，为他的客户撰写分析报告。除了不用见人之外，他选择清迈还有另一个原因，就是因为物价较低。“我在那里建屋的价钱，在香港可能要贵上20倍。”
麦嘉华在2000年以25万美元，在清迈买了一幅河边的地块，然后用30万美元翻新其上的两家泰式房屋，共4000呎楼面。同时在其旁用50万美元，兴建一幢有5000呎楼面的小办公楼。在香港他只在国金二期保留了一个很小的办公室。
钟情湾仔酒吧
最近他太太在曼谷找到工作，搬了到曼谷住，两夫妻一年之中聚少离多。
但他有点自得其乐：“这对我可能更好。”
要四处公干的麦嘉华，其实每月也只有约一星期留在他在清迈的家。其余时间，要四处跑，包括约每两三个本周星座财运月，会短暂停留香港一至两天。
逗留在香港时，他会选择入住湾仔一家酒店，因为他最欣赏的，就是湾仔一带的酒吧及鱼蛋粉。
末日博士绰号何来？
当麦嘉华还在Drexel Burnham Lambert任职时，在1987年10月19日美股急跌前一周呼吁客户沽售美股，结果恒指在10月19日当天急挫，单日跌11％，之后停市四天，甫开市便再跌33％，道琼斯工业平均指数在10月19日当天，单日跌23％，这为他赢得“末日博士”的称号。
Thursday, December 25, 2008
曹仁超投資守則
要投資成功幾大守則要記住-
一、寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌。最佳入貨訊號係投資對象上升10－15％後。例如金價2001年4月2日見255元美元，上升10－15％即見281元至294元，係最佳買入訊號，上述訊號去年1月已出現，即2002年起對黃金態度係逢低吸，直到有一天金價回落10－15％才平倉（依家最高見354美元，即止蝕301美元)。
二、睇實、睇實再睇實。任何投資項目買入後必須睇實，股票如此，物業如此、債券亦如此。股票必須每周檢討其方向是否改變；債券必須每月檢討方向有冇改變；物業亦必須每季檢討方向，千萬不可買入後放十年八載便以為天降財富。天下間冇咁便宜的事，一旦方向改變立即離開。
三、去年同新城電台搞「曹仁超投資智慧」，介紹KISS理論（Keep It Simple, Stupid !），任何投資自己無法理解者最好唔參與。其實發達可以好簡單！KISS另一解釋係Keep It Safe, Smartguy !（安全第一，醒目仔）！許多人一味努力賺錢，而唔知道唔蝕錢更重要！成功與失敗不在閣下賺得快而在乎閣下留低幾多！97年時千萬富翁隨街走，一項冇科學根據嘅統計指出，當時等巴士長龍中有百分之七十二點五係千萬富翁（住緊げ層樓已值近千萬矣），但今時今日千萬富翁漸成稀有品種……。點解會咁？因為太多人留「佢」唔住，一味死博爛博而唔懂得持盈保泰，97年唔少千萬富翁今天淪為負資產一族。
四、困難日子唔代表冇銀搵。例如8×9年x六x四x 事件後已證明乃入市最佳時機；97年8月本港樓市出問題，都係投資英、美、澳洲等地物業最佳時機；甚至 2002年投資外匯及黃金者一樣獲可觀利潤。賺錢如發掘寶藏，必須有藏寶圖、刻苦及鍥而不舍的精神，然後找到定位，一舉而成功（但分分鐘失效）。
五、唔好問和尚借梳。有Ｄ所謂投資專家，自己都係負資產人士，又點可以教識你發達之道？大部分證券行內從業員職責唔係為你賺錢，而係為自己賺取傭金。因此唔好向經紀諮詢投資意見，只可利用經紀代你完成買賣，因為佢地唔係受訓做投資顧問，佢地嘅責任只係代客買賣股票。學嘢應請教投資已成功的人士，而非自己投資失敗而改行做投資專家的人士（對唔住！又得罪人）；股票市場可以賺錢理由皆因別人犯錯！股票市場永遠係少數人賺大多數人蝕的地方。
———-
在投資之前有冇問問自己：
一、該公司係咪一間穩健及有聲譽的公司？它是否擁有良好及有效率的管理層？
二、該公司生產什麽或提供什麽服務？在可見將來，社會對該產品或服務需求怎樣？
三、該公司從事的行業是否面對過分激烈競爭？它是否處於有利地位？
四、公司策略制訂者是否有遠見及進取？同時有冇過分擴充，令財政出現困難？
五、有冇細看公司資產負債表，核數師的評語如何（依家應該加上げ個核數師是否誠信可靠）？
六、公司過去有冇良好純利紀錄及合理派息政策，如有段日子唔派息，有冇好好解釋理由？理由是否充分？
七、公司中長期貸款及短期貸款有冇超過安全極限？該公司股價⑹過去有冇大幅波動或無法解釋的波幅？
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其實投資好簡單，挑選優質股買入，直到股價上升一倍或以上才考慮獲利回吐，再用止蝕盤保護，以防自己分析錯誤，如此一來虧損被局限在15％之內；至於利潤，不妨讓它往前跑，通常獲利100％是最起碼要求，不少情況下利潤可達200％或以上。
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發達容易搵食更艱難
我老曹相信差唔多任何人都可發達，發達並唔需要特別天才、家庭背景甚至學歷。我老曹曾經寫過「發達容易，搵食艱難」，即發達較搵食容易，但點解社會上咁少人發達？理由係95%そ人響發達過程中犯錯，事關佢地唔記得開門七件事：
甲、誤信貼士。太多人唔做功課，睇報紙大標題買股票，如果D專家咁叻，點解佢地自己未發達？如果你停留響聽貼士水平，我老曹保證你冇發達！
乙、識乜唔重要，認識邊個才重要。請多點交朋友，我老曹係指可互相扶持的朋友，而非豬朋狗友。如果你同猴子在一起，你的思想行為遲早同猴子接近。
丙、做事要專心。唔少人以為別人發達係勤力，其實剛相反，世上最勤力的人通常從事低收入工作，富人工作時間並唔長但專心，一旦投入工作往往可廢寢忘餐，直到工作完成或上軌道後交畀屬下員工為止。
丁、誤信錢搵錢，以為自己窮係上一代冇蚊年剩落。事實上，唔少人富有的理由便是上一代貧窮，佢地立心脫離窮籍，結果錢愈賺愈多，最後富甲一方。佢地そ致富之道係一旦機會來臨便利用槓桿原理（不懂借錢的人唔會發達，亂借錢的人很快破產），因此佢そ財富唔只由一百萬元變成二百萬元，而係由一千萬元變成一億元。換言之，看準機會響一段時間（例如十年）內令財富高速增長，然後及時減債便可以印印腳矣。
戊、大富由天、小富由儉，呢個世界冇天時地利人和，你唔可能成為蓋茨、畢非德或李實發，呢類人一千萬人中少於兩個，真係一命二運三風水……。對一般人而言，一千萬元應該十分吸引，如你肯花三十年時間去達到上述數字，人人可以做到，並非白日夢。
己、好多人話「財富係一項負擔」，呢句話係講畀窮人聽そ，唔好信。財富絕對唔係一項負擔，你可以交畀私人銀行負責或請專人負責。財富的好處係令你財政獨立，唔使為幾萬銀折腰，可從心所欲地去做自己喜歡的事。
庚、富有的人視賺錢為一種興趣而非一項苦差，一如我老曹每天寫呢個專欄三十年不變，有人問辛唔辛苦？答案係有時冇材料都幾辛苦，除此之外都係樂趣，希望讀者透過我老曹提供的財務意見改善自己理財方法；同時，在為讀者搜尋資料過程中，我老曹亦搵到投資機會。任何視賺錢為苦差者一定唔會發達。
在此順便重溫我老曹的「投資哲學」-
A、不要趁低買入，因為你唔知幾時才係最低，寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌；
B、永遠記住行使止蝕，防止小損失變成大損失；
C、買賣前先做功課；
D、財富係透過逐小逐小累積起來的，唔好期望一朝發達；
E、冇必勝投資但有必勝投資策略。
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有D投資戒條連我老曹自己亦可能忘記，在此同各位重溫。
一、無論情況如何緊記溝上唔溝落。
二、股票市場係賺錢地方，因此絕對要跟紅頂白而非鋤強扶弱，幾時都應吸納強勢股，沽出弱勢股。
三、持有蝕本股不放有兩大損失：A、股價上嘅損失；B、失去將資金投資其他項目嘅損失。因此絕對要止蝕。
四、股市唔係低價買入高價賣出嘅地方（冇人做得到），應該高價買入更高價賣出，因此宜高追不宜趁低買入。
五、牛市中錯失獲利機會冇有怕，因為下一浪更高；熊市中寧可賺少D，亦不應太遲離市。
六、股市表現可能同自己想法背馳好耐，所以淡市莫估底，旺市莫估頂。
七、第一次出現裂口上升時不妨買入；如出現裂口回落係時候離開。
八、旺市時不妨膽大D，因為形勢在我；淡市時少玩，因為氹仔浸死人。
九、投資成功先了解基本因素，再利用技術分析決定買賣時機，只識技術分析唔了解基本因素者，只係花拳繡腿（睇得但唔打得）。
十、升市將盡小心「單日轉向」或「單周轉向」走勢，通常幾有用。最簡單的技術分析最有用，太複雜的技術分析只係用嚟嚇初學者。
十一、了解群眾心理亦十分有用，因群眾常常睇錯市。
十二、止蝕唔止賺，通常賣出之後股價才大升，我地少賺50%或以上。獲利回吐易，止蝕賣出難，只有克服上述心理，才能在股市立足。
———–
寧願蝕息不可蝕價
股聖畢非德旗下巴郡哈撒韋透露去年度手上現金高達360億美元（2002年年底只有130億美元），響現今低利率情況下，點解保留咁多茄殊在手？投資涉及兩問題：一B賺息（例如存款有利息、買樓有租收、買股票有股息、買債券有債息）；二、賺價（外匯有波動、樓價有升降、股價有上落、債券價格可升可跌）。一般人過分強調賺息，因為仍需要利息收入去改善生活素質；有錢人卻強調賺價，因為佢地嘅收入已唔再需要收息。令你富有嘅係賺價，唔係賺息；令你貪窮嘅亦係蝕價，唔係蝕息。1997年8月買樓收租至今，結果七年租金收入抵不上樓價回落；反之，過去三年摣金冇息收，但卻可賺價。雖然黃金冇利息，但金價上升 60％，跑贏過去三年樓價！
股份亦一樣，高息股通常唔係增長股，而且隨時面對派息減少甚至唔派息；增長股從來唔可能派高息，因為資金有更佳用途。合理股息應響三厘半之下，一旦高於三厘半，已再唔係增長股。有時客觀情況係面對蝕息或蝕價嘅問題，畢非德教曉我地寧可蝕息，不可蝕價。
——–
各位應緊記以下八大格言：
一、訂立守則管制自己行為（例如止蝕沽盤）；
二、不要只見高回報率，忽略高風險所在；
三、未買先賣（未買入任何投資前，先計計自己可以輸幾多）；
四、不可承擔超過自己能力的投資（例如有三十萬元炒一百萬元貨）；
五、不可感情支配理智（面對損失之時因輸唔起而感情用事）；
六、不可自己冇主見而誤聽別人意見（忘記真主意、假商量守則）；
七、不可冇為自己行為負責的性格；
八、切勿忘記以上七大格言。
一、寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌。最佳入貨訊號係投資對象上升10－15％後。例如金價2001年4月2日見255元美元，上升10－15％即見281元至294元，係最佳買入訊號，上述訊號去年1月已出現，即2002年起對黃金態度係逢低吸，直到有一天金價回落10－15％才平倉（依家最高見354美元，即止蝕301美元)。
二、睇實、睇實再睇實。任何投資項目買入後必須睇實，股票如此，物業如此、債券亦如此。股票必須每周檢討其方向是否改變；債券必須每月檢討方向有冇改變；物業亦必須每季檢討方向，千萬不可買入後放十年八載便以為天降財富。天下間冇咁便宜的事，一旦方向改變立即離開。
三、去年同新城電台搞「曹仁超投資智慧」，介紹KISS理論（Keep It Simple, Stupid !），任何投資自己無法理解者最好唔參與。其實發達可以好簡單！KISS另一解釋係Keep It Safe, Smartguy !（安全第一，醒目仔）！許多人一味努力賺錢，而唔知道唔蝕錢更重要！成功與失敗不在閣下賺得快而在乎閣下留低幾多！97年時千萬富翁隨街走，一項冇科學根據嘅統計指出，當時等巴士長龍中有百分之七十二點五係千萬富翁（住緊げ層樓已值近千萬矣），但今時今日千萬富翁漸成稀有品種……。點解會咁？因為太多人留「佢」唔住，一味死博爛博而唔懂得持盈保泰，97年唔少千萬富翁今天淪為負資產一族。
四、困難日子唔代表冇銀搵。例如8×9年x六x四x 事件後已證明乃入市最佳時機；97年8月本港樓市出問題，都係投資英、美、澳洲等地物業最佳時機；甚至 2002年投資外匯及黃金者一樣獲可觀利潤。賺錢如發掘寶藏，必須有藏寶圖、刻苦及鍥而不舍的精神，然後找到定位，一舉而成功（但分分鐘失效）。
五、唔好問和尚借梳。有Ｄ所謂投資專家，自己都係負資產人士，又點可以教識你發達之道？大部分證券行內從業員職責唔係為你賺錢，而係為自己賺取傭金。因此唔好向經紀諮詢投資意見，只可利用經紀代你完成買賣，因為佢地唔係受訓做投資顧問，佢地嘅責任只係代客買賣股票。學嘢應請教投資已成功的人士，而非自己投資失敗而改行做投資專家的人士（對唔住！又得罪人）；股票市場可以賺錢理由皆因別人犯錯！股票市場永遠係少數人賺大多數人蝕的地方。
———-
在投資之前有冇問問自己：
一、該公司係咪一間穩健及有聲譽的公司？它是否擁有良好及有效率的管理層？
二、該公司生產什麽或提供什麽服務？在可見將來，社會對該產品或服務需求怎樣？
三、該公司從事的行業是否面對過分激烈競爭？它是否處於有利地位？
四、公司策略制訂者是否有遠見及進取？同時有冇過分擴充，令財政出現困難？
五、有冇細看公司資產負債表，核數師的評語如何（依家應該加上げ個核數師是否誠信可靠）？
六、公司過去有冇良好純利紀錄及合理派息政策，如有段日子唔派息，有冇好好解釋理由？理由是否充分？
七、公司中長期貸款及短期貸款有冇超過安全極限？該公司股價⑹過去有冇大幅波動或無法解釋的波幅？
—–
其實投資好簡單，挑選優質股買入，直到股價上升一倍或以上才考慮獲利回吐，再用止蝕盤保護，以防自己分析錯誤，如此一來虧損被局限在15％之內；至於利潤，不妨讓它往前跑，通常獲利100％是最起碼要求，不少情況下利潤可達200％或以上。
——–
發達容易搵食更艱難
我老曹相信差唔多任何人都可發達，發達並唔需要特別天才、家庭背景甚至學歷。我老曹曾經寫過「發達容易，搵食艱難」，即發達較搵食容易，但點解社會上咁少人發達？理由係95%そ人響發達過程中犯錯，事關佢地唔記得開門七件事：
甲、誤信貼士。太多人唔做功課，睇報紙大標題買股票，如果D專家咁叻，點解佢地自己未發達？如果你停留響聽貼士水平，我老曹保證你冇發達！
乙、識乜唔重要，認識邊個才重要。請多點交朋友，我老曹係指可互相扶持的朋友，而非豬朋狗友。如果你同猴子在一起，你的思想行為遲早同猴子接近。
丙、做事要專心。唔少人以為別人發達係勤力，其實剛相反，世上最勤力的人通常從事低收入工作，富人工作時間並唔長但專心，一旦投入工作往往可廢寢忘餐，直到工作完成或上軌道後交畀屬下員工為止。
丁、誤信錢搵錢，以為自己窮係上一代冇蚊年剩落。事實上，唔少人富有的理由便是上一代貧窮，佢地立心脫離窮籍，結果錢愈賺愈多，最後富甲一方。佢地そ致富之道係一旦機會來臨便利用槓桿原理（不懂借錢的人唔會發達，亂借錢的人很快破產），因此佢そ財富唔只由一百萬元變成二百萬元，而係由一千萬元變成一億元。換言之，看準機會響一段時間（例如十年）內令財富高速增長，然後及時減債便可以印印腳矣。
戊、大富由天、小富由儉，呢個世界冇天時地利人和，你唔可能成為蓋茨、畢非德或李實發，呢類人一千萬人中少於兩個，真係一命二運三風水……。對一般人而言，一千萬元應該十分吸引，如你肯花三十年時間去達到上述數字，人人可以做到，並非白日夢。
己、好多人話「財富係一項負擔」，呢句話係講畀窮人聽そ，唔好信。財富絕對唔係一項負擔，你可以交畀私人銀行負責或請專人負責。財富的好處係令你財政獨立，唔使為幾萬銀折腰，可從心所欲地去做自己喜歡的事。
庚、富有的人視賺錢為一種興趣而非一項苦差，一如我老曹每天寫呢個專欄三十年不變，有人問辛唔辛苦？答案係有時冇材料都幾辛苦，除此之外都係樂趣，希望讀者透過我老曹提供的財務意見改善自己理財方法；同時，在為讀者搜尋資料過程中，我老曹亦搵到投資機會。任何視賺錢為苦差者一定唔會發達。
在此順便重溫我老曹的「投資哲學」-
A、不要趁低買入，因為你唔知幾時才係最低，寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌；
B、永遠記住行使止蝕，防止小損失變成大損失；
C、買賣前先做功課；
D、財富係透過逐小逐小累積起來的，唔好期望一朝發達；
E、冇必勝投資但有必勝投資策略。
———
有D投資戒條連我老曹自己亦可能忘記，在此同各位重溫。
一、無論情況如何緊記溝上唔溝落。
二、股票市場係賺錢地方，因此絕對要跟紅頂白而非鋤強扶弱，幾時都應吸納強勢股，沽出弱勢股。
三、持有蝕本股不放有兩大損失：A、股價上嘅損失；B、失去將資金投資其他項目嘅損失。因此絕對要止蝕。
四、股市唔係低價買入高價賣出嘅地方（冇人做得到），應該高價買入更高價賣出，因此宜高追不宜趁低買入。
五、牛市中錯失獲利機會冇有怕，因為下一浪更高；熊市中寧可賺少D，亦不應太遲離市。
六、股市表現可能同自己想法背馳好耐，所以淡市莫估底，旺市莫估頂。
七、第一次出現裂口上升時不妨買入；如出現裂口回落係時候離開。
八、旺市時不妨膽大D，因為形勢在我；淡市時少玩，因為氹仔浸死人。
九、投資成功先了解基本因素，再利用技術分析決定買賣時機，只識技術分析唔了解基本因素者，只係花拳繡腿（睇得但唔打得）。
十、升市將盡小心「單日轉向」或「單周轉向」走勢，通常幾有用。最簡單的技術分析最有用，太複雜的技術分析只係用嚟嚇初學者。
十一、了解群眾心理亦十分有用，因群眾常常睇錯市。
十二、止蝕唔止賺，通常賣出之後股價才大升，我地少賺50%或以上。獲利回吐易，止蝕賣出難，只有克服上述心理，才能在股市立足。
———–
寧願蝕息不可蝕價
股聖畢非德旗下巴郡哈撒韋透露去年度手上現金高達360億美元（2002年年底只有130億美元），響現今低利率情況下，點解保留咁多茄殊在手？投資涉及兩問題：一B賺息（例如存款有利息、買樓有租收、買股票有股息、買債券有債息）；二、賺價（外匯有波動、樓價有升降、股價有上落、債券價格可升可跌）。一般人過分強調賺息，因為仍需要利息收入去改善生活素質；有錢人卻強調賺價，因為佢地嘅收入已唔再需要收息。令你富有嘅係賺價，唔係賺息；令你貪窮嘅亦係蝕價，唔係蝕息。1997年8月買樓收租至今，結果七年租金收入抵不上樓價回落；反之，過去三年摣金冇息收，但卻可賺價。雖然黃金冇利息，但金價上升 60％，跑贏過去三年樓價！
股份亦一樣，高息股通常唔係增長股，而且隨時面對派息減少甚至唔派息；增長股從來唔可能派高息，因為資金有更佳用途。合理股息應響三厘半之下，一旦高於三厘半，已再唔係增長股。有時客觀情況係面對蝕息或蝕價嘅問題，畢非德教曉我地寧可蝕息，不可蝕價。
——–
各位應緊記以下八大格言：
一、訂立守則管制自己行為（例如止蝕沽盤）；
二、不要只見高回報率，忽略高風險所在；
三、未買先賣（未買入任何投資前，先計計自己可以輸幾多）；
四、不可承擔超過自己能力的投資（例如有三十萬元炒一百萬元貨）；
五、不可感情支配理智（面對損失之時因輸唔起而感情用事）；
六、不可自己冇主見而誤聽別人意見（忘記真主意、假商量守則）；
七、不可冇為自己行為負責的性格；
八、切勿忘記以上七大格言。
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
The last bubble
'' In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive.
Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000.
I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield.''
By Jim Rogers
Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000.
I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield.''
By Jim Rogers
Oil Guru Blanch Shifts From Bull to Bear and Back
Francisco Blanch, the Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who called the $147.27 record crude-oil price nearly on the nose, sent markets into a tailspin with his forecast that the next move may be back to $25 a barrel in 2009. Such relief for consumers may be short-lived once the global recession ends, he said.
“If we reignite economic growth to a very fast level, we will have a shortage of energy again,” said the 35-year-old head of global commodity research at Merrill Lynch in London . Oil may rise to $150 in two or three years, said Blanch. World growth will reach 2.2 percent next year and rise to 4.8 percent by 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Blanch changed his 2009 price forecast at least four times this year as the worst global slowdown since 2001 spreads. His most recent estimate that crude may fall to $25 came on Nov. 26.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 13 members meet in Oran , Algeria , tomorrow to try to stem crude’s decline.
“A shift of views from an analyst is a good thing,” said Pierre Andurand, chief investment officer at BlueGold Capital Management LLP, a London-based hedge fund that manages $1.1 billion. “It means he takes the change in economic conditions
and the change in balances into account. We can’t say that for many of them.”
On August 7, with crude about $27 below the record set about a month earlier, Blanch said he expected oil demand to be supported by “very healthy” growth in emerging markets.
The following month, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy, credit markets froze and recessions in the U.S. and the Europe deepened.
Global Recession
Blanch lowered his average 2009 forecast to $90 on Oct. 2 and said crude may fall to $50 in a global recession. Following the announcement, prices dropped 4.6 percent to $93.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Two months later, he forecast a fall to $25 if the recession extended to China . Oil tumbled 13 percent to $40.50 a barrel that day and the next.
“What changed our views is that the credit cycle became explosive. Suddenly the cost of money just absolutely ballooned,” said Blanch, who lives in London ’s Hampstead area with his wife, Gabriela, a human rights lawyer, and a golden retriever named Guero.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts Jeffrey Currie and Allison Nathan, and Deutsche Bank AG’s Adam Sieminski, have also reduced price forecasts.
London-based Currie and Nathan, in New York , predicted on Dec. 11 that oil would drop to $30 in the first quarter of 2009, half their previous forecast. Washington-based Sieminski predicted an average price of $47.50 for 2009.
Blanch forecast $150 oil in November 2007 when crude was about $96, saying that would set the stage for a global economic slowdown sending the price to $50.
‘Cold Outside’
His $25 prediction may have received more weight than it deserved, said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield,Massachusetts.
“Sure, if the Chinese economy gets really bad, we could go below $25,” she said. “It’s kind of like saying if the temperature drops, it will be cold outside.”
Blanch, who runs half-marathons and takes the subway to work, said the likelihood of $25 oil is less than one in three.
“The best you can do is sort of set out a number of alternatives and try to set out within your central forecast what are the risks around it and what are the alternatives,” he said. “Nobody has a crystal ball.”
“If we reignite economic growth to a very fast level, we will have a shortage of energy again,” said the 35-year-old head of global commodity research at Merrill Lynch in London . Oil may rise to $150 in two or three years, said Blanch. World growth will reach 2.2 percent next year and rise to 4.8 percent by 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Blanch changed his 2009 price forecast at least four times this year as the worst global slowdown since 2001 spreads. His most recent estimate that crude may fall to $25 came on Nov. 26.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 13 members meet in Oran , Algeria , tomorrow to try to stem crude’s decline.
“A shift of views from an analyst is a good thing,” said Pierre Andurand, chief investment officer at BlueGold Capital Management LLP, a London-based hedge fund that manages $1.1 billion. “It means he takes the change in economic conditions
and the change in balances into account. We can’t say that for many of them.”
On August 7, with crude about $27 below the record set about a month earlier, Blanch said he expected oil demand to be supported by “very healthy” growth in emerging markets.
The following month, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy, credit markets froze and recessions in the U.S. and the Europe deepened.
Global Recession
Blanch lowered his average 2009 forecast to $90 on Oct. 2 and said crude may fall to $50 in a global recession. Following the announcement, prices dropped 4.6 percent to $93.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Two months later, he forecast a fall to $25 if the recession extended to China . Oil tumbled 13 percent to $40.50 a barrel that day and the next.
“What changed our views is that the credit cycle became explosive. Suddenly the cost of money just absolutely ballooned,” said Blanch, who lives in London ’s Hampstead area with his wife, Gabriela, a human rights lawyer, and a golden retriever named Guero.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts Jeffrey Currie and Allison Nathan, and Deutsche Bank AG’s Adam Sieminski, have also reduced price forecasts.
London-based Currie and Nathan, in New York , predicted on Dec. 11 that oil would drop to $30 in the first quarter of 2009, half their previous forecast. Washington-based Sieminski predicted an average price of $47.50 for 2009.
Blanch forecast $150 oil in November 2007 when crude was about $96, saying that would set the stage for a global economic slowdown sending the price to $50.
‘Cold Outside’
His $25 prediction may have received more weight than it deserved, said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield,Massachusetts.
“Sure, if the Chinese economy gets really bad, we could go below $25,” she said. “It’s kind of like saying if the temperature drops, it will be cold outside.”
Blanch, who runs half-marathons and takes the subway to work, said the likelihood of $25 oil is less than one in three.
“The best you can do is sort of set out a number of alternatives and try to set out within your central forecast what are the risks around it and what are the alternatives,” he said. “Nobody has a crystal ball.”
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
SPH
Recommendation: Buy (Maintained),Target price: $4.48 (from $5.11)
Core media business at below historical low
We are revising our advertising revenue growth assumption to -20.0% from 3.0% in view of the negative GDP outlook for 2009. Historically, advertising revenue growth underperformed GDP growth in a down market. In 2002, advertising revenue declined 19.8% yoy. Our new projection shows newspaper and magazine revenue declining 14.8% while overall revenue is estimated to fall by 1.6% in FY09F, mitigated by the contribution from Sky@Eleven. At 11.8x forward PER, SPH is now trading at the trough valuation of 11.8x. Our implied valuation of the core media business shows a trading PER of 10.6x, which is below the historical low PER of 11.8x.
Cost cutting to counter recession
We reduced our staff cost estimates for FY09F by 29% following the cost cutting measures instituted by the management and given that employees’ variable wage component is about 10%. Our net profit estimate in FY09F is reduced to $425.3m, representing a yoy decline of 2.8%. The impact of changes to earnings estimates are lower DPS of 23.8 cts for FY09F and 22.2 cts for FY10F, translating to a yield of 7.6% and 7.1%, respectively. The DPS estimates are based on a 90% payout from both media and development income.
Free cash flow to support payout
Free cash flow of $408m expected in FY09F should support the dividend payout of $380m. SPH is in a net cash position of $280m as at Aug’08, with $1.1b in investible fund. An additional $150m three-year loan obtained recently may be deployed for investments in overseas media joint ventures.
Dividend track record a key attribute
SPH remains one of our most defensive pick as the company rewards shareholders with dividends even in bad times. Assuming 90% payout of recurring earnings, we are projecting normal yield of 5.2% (excluding payout from Sky@Eleven), which depicts are more sustainable dividend profile as contribution from property development will cease from FY11.
Lower core media business valuation impacts SOTP target price
Our SOTP target price has been reduced to $4.48, mainly due to the lower DCF valuation of the core media business of $2.96 based on a 7.4% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate. We further assumed that the investments will be marked down by 10% due to the uncertain equity market condition. Our valuation assumption of $2b for Paragon remains intact as we believe that the opening of competing up-market shopping malls along Orchard Road in 2009 may raise the profile of surrounding properties and draw new crowds, and hence valuation will find a support. There is a 41% price upside to the new target price. Maintain Buy.
Core media business at below historical low
We are revising our advertising revenue growth assumption to -20.0% from 3.0% in view of the negative GDP outlook for 2009. Historically, advertising revenue growth underperformed GDP growth in a down market. In 2002, advertising revenue declined 19.8% yoy. Our new projection shows newspaper and magazine revenue declining 14.8% while overall revenue is estimated to fall by 1.6% in FY09F, mitigated by the contribution from Sky@Eleven. At 11.8x forward PER, SPH is now trading at the trough valuation of 11.8x. Our implied valuation of the core media business shows a trading PER of 10.6x, which is below the historical low PER of 11.8x.
Cost cutting to counter recession
We reduced our staff cost estimates for FY09F by 29% following the cost cutting measures instituted by the management and given that employees’ variable wage component is about 10%. Our net profit estimate in FY09F is reduced to $425.3m, representing a yoy decline of 2.8%. The impact of changes to earnings estimates are lower DPS of 23.8 cts for FY09F and 22.2 cts for FY10F, translating to a yield of 7.6% and 7.1%, respectively. The DPS estimates are based on a 90% payout from both media and development income.
Free cash flow to support payout
Free cash flow of $408m expected in FY09F should support the dividend payout of $380m. SPH is in a net cash position of $280m as at Aug’08, with $1.1b in investible fund. An additional $150m three-year loan obtained recently may be deployed for investments in overseas media joint ventures.
Dividend track record a key attribute
SPH remains one of our most defensive pick as the company rewards shareholders with dividends even in bad times. Assuming 90% payout of recurring earnings, we are projecting normal yield of 5.2% (excluding payout from Sky@Eleven), which depicts are more sustainable dividend profile as contribution from property development will cease from FY11.
Lower core media business valuation impacts SOTP target price
Our SOTP target price has been reduced to $4.48, mainly due to the lower DCF valuation of the core media business of $2.96 based on a 7.4% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate. We further assumed that the investments will be marked down by 10% due to the uncertain equity market condition. Our valuation assumption of $2b for Paragon remains intact as we believe that the opening of competing up-market shopping malls along Orchard Road in 2009 may raise the profile of surrounding properties and draw new crowds, and hence valuation will find a support. There is a 41% price upside to the new target price. Maintain Buy.
Haw Par ($3.46): Oversold; Embedded with Solid Value. BUY (TP: $5.25)
• Haw Par (HP) is trading at the widest discount of 0.4x NAV compared to the historical 5-year band of 0.6-0.9x.
• 60% of HP’s valuation is derived from its stake in UOB, whose price performance is highly correlated with the former. However year to date, HP’s stock has under-performed UOB, declining by 50% vs 34% in UOB’s stock price.
• At the current market cap of S$700m ($3.53/share), HP’s 4% shareholding in UOB is literally free if we strip out its investment holdings in UOL (5% stake), UIC (5%), investment properties, leisure and healthcare businesses.
• Balance sheet is strong and debt-free. We estimate dividend income from investments and operating earnings to generate free cash flow of $80-90m p.a., which is more than adequate to fund dividend payments of $49m (S$ 25c/share). Stock also offers a decent 7% yield based on the current market price.
• We expect corporate earnings to decline sharply in 2009. Against this backdrop, companies like HP with strong free cash flow and are attractively priced, are likely to outperform the broader market. Our sensitivity analysis shows that even if we were to assume sharply lower investment income from UOB; our worst case scenario indicates that net profit should still remain comfortably above $60m.
• We expect corporate earnings to decline sharply in 2009. Against this backdrop, companies like HP with strong free cash flow and are attractively priced, are likely to outperform the broader market. We stress-test earning impact in an downturn assuming sharply lower investment income from UOB; our bear case scenario indicates that net profit should still remain above $60m.
• Stock is trading at a 53% discount to our SOTP target of $7.51. Applying a 30% holding company discount, we derive a fair value target price of $5.25.
Recommend buy with 48% upside.
Negatives
Segmental earnings
•Stock is thinly traded with large institutional holdings (25% ofo/s stock), leading to wide bid/ask spreads.
•HP was removed from the MSCI Singapore in mid 2008; the lack of index inclusion could lead to low trading interest in the stock and consequently, price performance could lag broad market rallies.
•Earnings from Underwater World Sentosacould be impacted by lower tourist arrivals.
• 60% of HP’s valuation is derived from its stake in UOB, whose price performance is highly correlated with the former. However year to date, HP’s stock has under-performed UOB, declining by 50% vs 34% in UOB’s stock price.
• At the current market cap of S$700m ($3.53/share), HP’s 4% shareholding in UOB is literally free if we strip out its investment holdings in UOL (5% stake), UIC (5%), investment properties, leisure and healthcare businesses.
• Balance sheet is strong and debt-free. We estimate dividend income from investments and operating earnings to generate free cash flow of $80-90m p.a., which is more than adequate to fund dividend payments of $49m (S$ 25c/share). Stock also offers a decent 7% yield based on the current market price.
• We expect corporate earnings to decline sharply in 2009. Against this backdrop, companies like HP with strong free cash flow and are attractively priced, are likely to outperform the broader market. Our sensitivity analysis shows that even if we were to assume sharply lower investment income from UOB; our worst case scenario indicates that net profit should still remain comfortably above $60m.
• We expect corporate earnings to decline sharply in 2009. Against this backdrop, companies like HP with strong free cash flow and are attractively priced, are likely to outperform the broader market. We stress-test earning impact in an downturn assuming sharply lower investment income from UOB; our bear case scenario indicates that net profit should still remain above $60m.
• Stock is trading at a 53% discount to our SOTP target of $7.51. Applying a 30% holding company discount, we derive a fair value target price of $5.25.
Recommend buy with 48% upside.
Negatives
Segmental earnings
•Stock is thinly traded with large institutional holdings (25% ofo/s stock), leading to wide bid/ask spreads.
•HP was removed from the MSCI Singapore in mid 2008; the lack of index inclusion could lead to low trading interest in the stock and consequently, price performance could lag broad market rallies.
•Earnings from Underwater World Sentosacould be impacted by lower tourist arrivals.
Monday, December 15, 2008
羅傑斯: 投資法則之一是袖手旁觀 靜待大勢自然發展
詹姆斯·羅傑斯是在1968年以微不足道的600美元，在股市起家的。到了1973年，他便與喬治·索羅斯(George Soros)合夥設立“量子基金”(Quantum Fund)。該支基金後來成為全美表現最優異的基金一。1980年，羅傑斯累積一筆財富，於是宣告退休。他所謂的“退休”，是指開始專心經營個人的投資組合，以及到哥倫比亞大學商學院教授有關投資的課程。
我當時非常希望能訪問羅傑斯。他不僅是當代市場交易領域內的傳奇人物，而且總是能夠透過電視以及一些平面傳播媒體，為普通常識注入新意並給予新的詮釋。
由於我與羅傑斯並不相識，因此我寫了一封信給他，一方面請求他接受我的採訪，一方面向他解釋，我正在編寫一本有關交易員的書籍，隨信我也附贈他附我先前所寫一本有關期貨的著作。我並在書上寫了一句引自法國大哲學家福爾特爾(Voltaire)的名言：“普通常識其實並不那麼普通。”
幾天后，羅傑斯打電話給我，為贈書致謝，並且表示願意接受訪問。但是他也告訴我：“我可能不適合你採訪，因為我可以說是全世界最爛的交易員，我不但經常持有某一部位長達數年，而且從來沒有選對進場的時機。”他認為我的採訪對象應該是高明的交易員，而不是一名成功的投資人。
我所謂的交易員，是指注重股市大勢所趨的人；投資人則是注重選擇具有獲利潛力股票的人。換句話說，我所謂的投資人永遠是多頭，而交易員則可能做多，也可能放空。我在電話中向羅傑斯解釋我如何分辨交易員與投資人，並向他強調，他正是我所希望採訪的對象。
選定標的·長抱獲利
我是在一個初春的午後抵達羅傑斯的寓所。他一再強調：“我還是認為你找錯對象了。”
以下便是羅傑斯的解釋，以及為何他不認為自己是交易員的原因，我則是藉著他的解釋而展開本次的採訪。就如我在電話裏所說的，我不認為自己是一名交易員。記得我在1982年買進西德股票時，我對經紀人說：“我要你替我買進甲、乙、丙三支股票。”經紀人間我：“接下來要做什麼？”我說：“只要買進這些股票，然後告訴我是否成交就行了。”他問我：“你要不要我寄給你一些分析報告？”我回答：“拜託千萬不要。”他又問我：“你要不要我寄一些參考資料？”我回答：“喔，不必了。”他又問：“要不要我告訴你成交價？”我說：“不要，連成交價都不要告訴我。假如你告訴我成交價，我只要看到股價上漲兩倍或三倍，就可能想賣出股票。我其實是想長抱西德股票至少3年，因為我認為西德股市將會出現二、三十年僅見的多頭市場。”結果可想而知，那位經紀人被我說得啞口無言，他以為我根本就是個瘋子。附帶提一下，我的預測後來證明是正確的，我在1982年底買進西德股票，後來在1985年與1986年初分批賣出。
問：你當時為什麼對西德股市如此有信心？
答：我是在1982年底買進西德股票的，然而西德股市早在該年8月份開始邁向多頭市場。不過，更重要的是，西德股市自1961 年以來，便沒有出現過多頭市場。在1961年到1982年的21年間，西德經濟持續蓬勃發展。因此，基本上，西德股市已具有介入的價值。不論是買進或賣出，我總會先確定自己不會賠錢。只要買賣標的確實有其價值，即使我判斷錯誤，也不致虧損太多。
問：可是根據這個理論，你可能會早10年進入西德股市。
答：沒錯。你可能會因為與我持相同的看法，而在1971年買進西德股票，然後眼睜睜地走大多頭市場。可是話說回來，西德股市當時的確擁有催化股市的因素。任何重大事情的形成與發生，總是需要催化。當時，西德股市的催化因素就是西德大選。我預測當時執政的社會黨將被反對黨棗基督教民主黨擊敗。我也知道，基督教民主黨早已擬訂了一套刺激企業投資的計劃。
我的想法是，保守的基督教民主黨如果在經過多年挫敗後，終能贏得大選勝利，就一定會從事一些重大的經濟改革。我也發現，西德有許多企業由於預測基督教民主黨會贏得大選，因此在1982年都暫時停止資本及設備方面的投資。由此看來，假如基督教民主黨真的贏得大選，企業的資本投資勢必會呈大幅擴張。
問：結果呢？
答：結果在基督教民主黨贏得大選的當天，西德股市就告大漲。
問：假如基督教民主黨輸了呢？
答：我前面已經說過，我之所以進入西德股市，就是因為它本身已經具有相當的價值。根據這個理由，我相信我不會虧損。
我當時非常希望能訪問羅傑斯。他不僅是當代市場交易領域內的傳奇人物，而且總是能夠透過電視以及一些平面傳播媒體，為普通常識注入新意並給予新的詮釋。
由於我與羅傑斯並不相識，因此我寫了一封信給他，一方面請求他接受我的採訪，一方面向他解釋，我正在編寫一本有關交易員的書籍，隨信我也附贈他附我先前所寫一本有關期貨的著作。我並在書上寫了一句引自法國大哲學家福爾特爾(Voltaire)的名言：“普通常識其實並不那麼普通。”
幾天后，羅傑斯打電話給我，為贈書致謝，並且表示願意接受訪問。但是他也告訴我：“我可能不適合你採訪，因為我可以說是全世界最爛的交易員，我不但經常持有某一部位長達數年，而且從來沒有選對進場的時機。”他認為我的採訪對象應該是高明的交易員，而不是一名成功的投資人。
我所謂的交易員，是指注重股市大勢所趨的人；投資人則是注重選擇具有獲利潛力股票的人。換句話說，我所謂的投資人永遠是多頭，而交易員則可能做多，也可能放空。我在電話中向羅傑斯解釋我如何分辨交易員與投資人，並向他強調，他正是我所希望採訪的對象。
選定標的·長抱獲利
我是在一個初春的午後抵達羅傑斯的寓所。他一再強調：“我還是認為你找錯對象了。”
以下便是羅傑斯的解釋，以及為何他不認為自己是交易員的原因，我則是藉著他的解釋而展開本次的採訪。就如我在電話裏所說的，我不認為自己是一名交易員。記得我在1982年買進西德股票時，我對經紀人說：“我要你替我買進甲、乙、丙三支股票。”經紀人間我：“接下來要做什麼？”我說：“只要買進這些股票，然後告訴我是否成交就行了。”他問我：“你要不要我寄給你一些分析報告？”我回答：“拜託千萬不要。”他又問我：“你要不要我寄一些參考資料？”我回答：“喔，不必了。”他又問：“要不要我告訴你成交價？”我說：“不要，連成交價都不要告訴我。假如你告訴我成交價，我只要看到股價上漲兩倍或三倍，就可能想賣出股票。我其實是想長抱西德股票至少3年，因為我認為西德股市將會出現二、三十年僅見的多頭市場。”結果可想而知，那位經紀人被我說得啞口無言，他以為我根本就是個瘋子。附帶提一下，我的預測後來證明是正確的，我在1982年底買進西德股票，後來在1985年與1986年初分批賣出。
問：你當時為什麼對西德股市如此有信心？
答：我是在1982年底買進西德股票的，然而西德股市早在該年8月份開始邁向多頭市場。不過，更重要的是，西德股市自1961 年以來，便沒有出現過多頭市場。在1961年到1982年的21年間，西德經濟持續蓬勃發展。因此，基本上，西德股市已具有介入的價值。不論是買進或賣出，我總會先確定自己不會賠錢。只要買賣標的確實有其價值，即使我判斷錯誤，也不致虧損太多。
問：可是根據這個理論，你可能會早10年進入西德股市。
答：沒錯。你可能會因為與我持相同的看法，而在1971年買進西德股票，然後眼睜睜地走大多頭市場。可是話說回來，西德股市當時的確擁有催化股市的因素。任何重大事情的形成與發生，總是需要催化。當時，西德股市的催化因素就是西德大選。我預測當時執政的社會黨將被反對黨棗基督教民主黨擊敗。我也知道，基督教民主黨早已擬訂了一套刺激企業投資的計劃。
我的想法是，保守的基督教民主黨如果在經過多年挫敗後，終能贏得大選勝利，就一定會從事一些重大的經濟改革。我也發現，西德有許多企業由於預測基督教民主黨會贏得大選，因此在1982年都暫時停止資本及設備方面的投資。由此看來，假如基督教民主黨真的贏得大選，企業的資本投資勢必會呈大幅擴張。
問：結果呢？
答：結果在基督教民主黨贏得大選的當天，西德股市就告大漲。
問：假如基督教民主黨輸了呢？
答：我前面已經說過，我之所以進入西德股市，就是因為它本身已經具有相當的價值。根據這個理由，我相信我不會虧損。
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