判断庄家是否在进货和出货，有效的方法是学会使用OBV指标。OBV指标又称为能量潮，也叫成交量净额指标。其计算公式为：当日OBV＝前一日OBV＋今日成交量（如果当日收盘价高于前日收盘价取正值，反之取负值，平盘取零）。
1、 在证券市场上，价格、成交量、时间和空间是进行技术分析的四大要素，因此我们应该清楚，OBV指标作为成交量的指标，它不能单独使用，必须与价格曲线同时使用才能发挥作用。
2、OBV指标方向的选择反映出市场主流资金对持仓兴趣增减的变化。OBV指标的曲线方向通常有三个———向上、向下、水平。N字和V字是最常见的形态。
3、股价上涨时，OBV指标同步向上，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个价涨量增的看涨信号，表明市场的持仓兴趣在增加。反之，股价上涨、OBV指标同步呈向下或水平状态，实际上是上涨动能不足，表明市场的持仓兴趣没有多大的变化，大盘或个股的向上趋势都难以维持。
4、股价下跌时，OBV指标同步向下，给出大盘或个股的信号就是一个下跌动能增加的信号。市场做空动能的释放必然会带动股票价格大幅下行，这种情况出现时，投资者首先应该想到的是设立好止损位和离场观望。在这种情况下，回避风险是第一要点。
5、股价变动、OBV指标呈水平状态，这种情形在OBV指标的表现中最常见到。OBV指标呈水平状态首先表明目前市场的持仓兴趣变化不大，其次表明目前大盘或个股为调整状态，投资者最好不要参与调整。
Friday, June 20, 2008
谁说打工仔与百万无缘
在“投资要趁早”一文中，我一再强调“经验”的重要性。
要达到“财务自主”的目的，除了经验外，还有另一个非常关键性的因素——时间。
“投资要趁早”是因为趁早投资，有足够的时间来累积财富。
累积财富，需要时间。
时间与风险成正比，时间长、风险低；时间短、风险高。
时间可以创造奇迹。
许多人有一种错误的想法，以为只有非常特殊的人，才有资格成为百万富翁。
其实，只要有恒心，方向正确，加上时间，每一个普通的打工仔，在退休时，都有资格成为百万富翁。
要挤身于百万之榜，需俱备两个条件：
条件一：每个月储蓄300令吉，30年不中断。
条件二：将储蓄投资在每年以12%复利增长的五星级股票上。（每年的获利，包括股息，重新投资进去）。
这里有四个数字需要说明：
第一个数字：30年，为何30年？理由是25岁时找到第一份职业，工作至55岁退休，刚好30年。
第二个数字：300令吉，为何300令吉？理由是工作第一年的月薪可能是2千令吉，拨出300令吉作为储蓄，是可轻易做得到的，不会影响生活素质。
反对为储蓄勒紧腰带
我反对为了储蓄要勒紧腰带，因为这样会影响生活素质。投资致富可以轻松做到，不需要受苦，但要有纪律。
第三个数字：12%的复利增长率，为何12%，而不是10%或15%？
理由是12%是大部份肯化心思的投资者，都可以取得的投资回报率。
美国过去200年的股票投资回酬率为每年10%，但是大马是成长率较高的发展中国家，应该可以取得较高的回酬率，12%是可以做到的。
第四个数字：常年复利增长率(annualised compounded growth)，就是常人所说的“利上加利”。
年头投资100令吉，回报为12%，到年尾时本金加投资所得利润12令吉，下一年的本金为112令吉，如此不断地把投资所得利润加到本金去，重复下去，就叫“复利增长”。
长期以复利的方式增长，可以创造奇迹。
全球的富豪，都是通过这种方式成就的。
为什么要选择股票？
因为现在的股票交易，每单位为100股，每个人都买得起。不像买屋子，需要一笔数目颇大的“头期”，刚开始工作的打工仔无法负担。
那么，每年要取得12%的回酬，做得到吗？
我的经验是，如果只买五星级股票，着重股息的话，大部份人都可以做得到。
目前有不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。
为什么有些人做不到？
①怀着投机取巧的心理进行投资，今天赚，明天亏，到头来一无所得——细水长流，永远胜过“易涨易退山溪水”。
②没有恒心，无法坚持每个月储蓄300令吉，连续30年，半途而废是失败主因。有恒心储蓄又有投资头脑的人很少穷的。
③把资源耗费在消费性的资产上，如买豪华汽车以“威”人，十五万的车子十年后价值只剩五万，十五万的投资可以轻易增值至五十万，五万与五十万刚好相差十倍。
所以不要把储蓄消耗在贬值性的资产上。你的汽车只应占你的财富的10%，超过此数，便属浪费，有理财头脑的人不会这样做。
薪金到手马上储蓄
无法控制消费欲望是大部份人的弱点，也是理财计划的致命伤。大部份领到公积金后，在三年中花个清光，便是明证。
请坚守一个原则，每月薪金一到手，马上取出300令吉，放进储蓄户口，只花剩下的部份。
绝对不要花到月尾，才把剩余的存入储蓄户口，你会发现，未到月底已把薪水花光，结果是一月复一月，一年复一年，如王小二过年，一年不如一年，到退休时仍两袖清风，还要拖着疲乏的“老身”继续把工打下去。
你想这样吗？
有恒心地储蓄，绝不半途而废，坚持只买五星级股票，只要公司盈利继续上升，就不卖。让复利把你的财富如雪球般，越滚越大，你会发现，你可以轻轻松松的在30年后，登上百万富翁的宝座。
如果你嫌每个月储蓄300令吉麻烦，每年储蓄及投资4千令吉，也可以达到同样的效果。
职场新鲜人，何不一试？
要达到“财务自主”的目的，除了经验外，还有另一个非常关键性的因素——时间。
“投资要趁早”是因为趁早投资，有足够的时间来累积财富。
累积财富，需要时间。
时间与风险成正比，时间长、风险低；时间短、风险高。
时间可以创造奇迹。
许多人有一种错误的想法，以为只有非常特殊的人，才有资格成为百万富翁。
其实，只要有恒心，方向正确，加上时间，每一个普通的打工仔，在退休时，都有资格成为百万富翁。
要挤身于百万之榜，需俱备两个条件：
条件一：每个月储蓄300令吉，30年不中断。
条件二：将储蓄投资在每年以12%复利增长的五星级股票上。（每年的获利，包括股息，重新投资进去）。
这里有四个数字需要说明：
第一个数字：30年，为何30年？理由是25岁时找到第一份职业，工作至55岁退休，刚好30年。
第二个数字：300令吉，为何300令吉？理由是工作第一年的月薪可能是2千令吉，拨出300令吉作为储蓄，是可轻易做得到的，不会影响生活素质。
反对为储蓄勒紧腰带
我反对为了储蓄要勒紧腰带，因为这样会影响生活素质。投资致富可以轻松做到，不需要受苦，但要有纪律。
第三个数字：12%的复利增长率，为何12%，而不是10%或15%？
理由是12%是大部份肯化心思的投资者，都可以取得的投资回报率。
美国过去200年的股票投资回酬率为每年10%，但是大马是成长率较高的发展中国家，应该可以取得较高的回酬率，12%是可以做到的。
第四个数字：常年复利增长率(annualised compounded growth)，就是常人所说的“利上加利”。
年头投资100令吉，回报为12%，到年尾时本金加投资所得利润12令吉，下一年的本金为112令吉，如此不断地把投资所得利润加到本金去，重复下去，就叫“复利增长”。
长期以复利的方式增长，可以创造奇迹。
全球的富豪，都是通过这种方式成就的。
为什么要选择股票？
因为现在的股票交易，每单位为100股，每个人都买得起。不像买屋子，需要一笔数目颇大的“头期”，刚开始工作的打工仔无法负担。
那么，每年要取得12%的回酬，做得到吗？
我的经验是，如果只买五星级股票，着重股息的话，大部份人都可以做得到。
目前有不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。
为什么有些人做不到？
①怀着投机取巧的心理进行投资，今天赚，明天亏，到头来一无所得——细水长流，永远胜过“易涨易退山溪水”。
②没有恒心，无法坚持每个月储蓄300令吉，连续30年，半途而废是失败主因。有恒心储蓄又有投资头脑的人很少穷的。
③把资源耗费在消费性的资产上，如买豪华汽车以“威”人，十五万的车子十年后价值只剩五万，十五万的投资可以轻易增值至五十万，五万与五十万刚好相差十倍。
所以不要把储蓄消耗在贬值性的资产上。你的汽车只应占你的财富的10%，超过此数，便属浪费，有理财头脑的人不会这样做。
薪金到手马上储蓄
无法控制消费欲望是大部份人的弱点，也是理财计划的致命伤。大部份领到公积金后，在三年中花个清光，便是明证。
请坚守一个原则，每月薪金一到手，马上取出300令吉，放进储蓄户口，只花剩下的部份。
绝对不要花到月尾，才把剩余的存入储蓄户口，你会发现，未到月底已把薪水花光，结果是一月复一月，一年复一年，如王小二过年，一年不如一年，到退休时仍两袖清风，还要拖着疲乏的“老身”继续把工打下去。
你想这样吗？
有恒心地储蓄，绝不半途而废，坚持只买五星级股票，只要公司盈利继续上升，就不卖。让复利把你的财富如雪球般，越滚越大，你会发现，你可以轻轻松松的在30年后，登上百万富翁的宝座。
如果你嫌每个月储蓄300令吉麻烦，每年储蓄及投资4千令吉，也可以达到同样的效果。
职场新鲜人，何不一试？
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Whose American Dream Is It, Anyway?
A recent "USA Today" poll showed that, given the worsening economy, high prices for energy, and the housing crisis, Americans are more pessimistic about their lives than at any time in the past half-century. Most worrisome is that just 45 percent believe their children will be better off financially than they are, which caused reporter David Lynch to ask if the American Dream was, if not dead, then at least wounded.
I've been asking the same question since I started writing the original Generation Debt series for "The Village Voice" back in 2004. Back then the economy was booming, but the long-term data were already clear -- young men were earning significantly less than their fathers had 30 years ago (given inflation); young women were barely making progress on the gains in the workforce that their mothers had worked so hard for; and both were saddled with record prices for housing, health care, and education, as well as rising student loan and credit card debt.
Well, now I think it's time to take a fresh look at the issue. Maybe the American Dream is dead or wounded -- or maybe it's just outdated.
Perhaps the strongest symbol of the traditional American Dream is the single-family home in an automobile-dependent suburb. Today, in many places, those houses are unaffordable for the middle class.
With gas prices soaring to an average above four dollars a gallon, the car commute is unaffordable, too -- and no one is expecting gas to come back down to the 99-cent range anytime soon.
Furthermore, even if house prices continue to decline and cars get more fuel-efficient, it turns out that the driving commute itself cuts into people's happiness -- so much so, one pair of researchers found, that someone commuting an hour each way would have to earn 40 percent more to compensate for the decreased quality of life.
Another piece of the American Dream that we're saying goodbye to is lifetime employment with a single corporation that offers health care, a pension, and a gold watch upon retirement. Manufacturing has moved overseas, and large corporations simply don't operate like that anymore.
For high-school educated workers, the middle class job is all but kaput. GM was the largest employer in the country in 1970, with an average wage of $17.50 an hour. Today GM is all but bankrupt, and Wal-Mart is the nation's largest employer, with an average wage of $9 an hour.
But what about the most fundamental assumption of the American Dream, the idea that standards of living, as measured by money and ownership of material things, ought to keep rising steadily year after year, generation after generation? That one is looking to be on the shakiest ground of all.
First of all, by most measures, our country has long since passed the point where adding more income and more stuff will make us happier. Once a nation has a per capita income above $12,000, for example, there is little correlation between wealth and happiness.
And in the U.S., researcher Daniel Gilbert found, once an individual passes $50,000 a year in income, more money has little effect on his or her happiness on average.
In fact, not surprisingly, the top earners have far less free time than the poorest fifth of Americans, and their average mood is not much better.
Secondly, indications are mounting that the planet just can't take all this constantly increasing driving and shopping and fast-food eating. If the entire world consumed the way Americans do (China and India are the most obvious examples of countries headed in this direction), we would need six Earths full of resources.
So for those of you who, like me, hope to be living another 60, 70, or 80 years in this unique nation, it might be time to ask: What is our new American Dream? If it's not a house, a car, a lawn, a lifetime of job security, and a constantly rising standard of living, what are we looking for? What should we be looking for?
I don't have the definitive answer. But I have three suggestions and observations.
Time, Not Stuff
Young people prize flexibility with their time. More likely to be raised by working mothers than any generation in history, we've seen the tradeoffs and don't want to fall into the "two-income trap" where both partners work more and more hours, barely seeing each other or their kids, just to keep up with the Joneses.
Both young men and young women say over and over in employment surveys that they want time to take care of their families and their health, to be involved in their communities, and to "have a life."
As we weather this economic downturn, I predict that even more young people are going to choose -- or be pushed into -- a smaller-scale, downshifted lifestyle where they make do with less stuff and trade more money for more time.
People are already planting more gardens, driving less and riding their bikes or public transportation more, canceling their cable subscriptions, and spending more time at home. This is a perfect example of making a virtue out of necessity -- all these changes save money, but they also mean a slower, healthier lifestyle that for some is its own reward.
There are even reports in the media of young families going to the extreme with the trend of taking out a "Selling All Worldly Possessions" ad on Craigslist and taking to the road.
Meaningful Employment
Money and security are important, but research says young people really want meaning in their jobs, too.
This includes finding a personal passion and getting a chance to do something important for the world.
One employment trend that attracts young people is self-employment and entrepreneurship. This ties in to our interest in individuality and flexibility. Nearly a fifth of the workforce can be classified as non-standard in some way, and non-standard workers are twice as likely to be under 25.
Going out on your own has its tradeoffs. This part of the workforce faces greater risk, and under our current laws, they have inadequate access to benefits such as health care and nondiscrimination protection. Yet it turns out many independent workers are more satisfied with their jobs than salaried employees at an equivalent level. That's in large part because autonomy is a major key to job satisfaction.
A second popular direction for young people seeking meaning in their employment is in public service. Teach for America, where college graduates go into underserved public schools for two years, is a top entry-level employer at many elite colleges.
And last year's College Cost Reduction and Access Act established a slew of new student loan forgiveness programs for young people who go into professions including social work, nursing, law enforcement, and firefighting, which should entice even more young people into these lines of work.
And they may well find satisfaction there. In one huge employer survey, the three job categories where employees were most likely to say they had their "Dream jobs" were, in order, teacher, police officer, and firefighter.
A New New Deal
This part is more political than personal. The old American Dream included a social safety net that provided a baseline of security. As noted, this is no longer being provided adequately by employers or the government.
Young people are the largest and fastest-growing group of Americans without health insurance, we lack access to pension plans, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare is threatened by current budget positions. Young Americans in polls hold a more favorable view of government solutions than older Americans, and we are calling for new government investments in portable, flexible benefits that will restore the social safety net while controlling rising costs.
These are scary times. But after Hurricane Katrina hit my hometown of New Orleans, I learned from the courage of people struggling to rebuild. I saw that pessimism is a luxury for easy times, while optimism is a necessity for times like these. The new American Dream may be smaller and less flashy than your father's Oldsmobile, but it's more sustainable -- and maybe it can take us farther.
I've been asking the same question since I started writing the original Generation Debt series for "The Village Voice" back in 2004. Back then the economy was booming, but the long-term data were already clear -- young men were earning significantly less than their fathers had 30 years ago (given inflation); young women were barely making progress on the gains in the workforce that their mothers had worked so hard for; and both were saddled with record prices for housing, health care, and education, as well as rising student loan and credit card debt.
Well, now I think it's time to take a fresh look at the issue. Maybe the American Dream is dead or wounded -- or maybe it's just outdated.
Perhaps the strongest symbol of the traditional American Dream is the single-family home in an automobile-dependent suburb. Today, in many places, those houses are unaffordable for the middle class.
With gas prices soaring to an average above four dollars a gallon, the car commute is unaffordable, too -- and no one is expecting gas to come back down to the 99-cent range anytime soon.
Furthermore, even if house prices continue to decline and cars get more fuel-efficient, it turns out that the driving commute itself cuts into people's happiness -- so much so, one pair of researchers found, that someone commuting an hour each way would have to earn 40 percent more to compensate for the decreased quality of life.
Another piece of the American Dream that we're saying goodbye to is lifetime employment with a single corporation that offers health care, a pension, and a gold watch upon retirement. Manufacturing has moved overseas, and large corporations simply don't operate like that anymore.
For high-school educated workers, the middle class job is all but kaput. GM was the largest employer in the country in 1970, with an average wage of $17.50 an hour. Today GM is all but bankrupt, and Wal-Mart is the nation's largest employer, with an average wage of $9 an hour.
But what about the most fundamental assumption of the American Dream, the idea that standards of living, as measured by money and ownership of material things, ought to keep rising steadily year after year, generation after generation? That one is looking to be on the shakiest ground of all.
First of all, by most measures, our country has long since passed the point where adding more income and more stuff will make us happier. Once a nation has a per capita income above $12,000, for example, there is little correlation between wealth and happiness.
And in the U.S., researcher Daniel Gilbert found, once an individual passes $50,000 a year in income, more money has little effect on his or her happiness on average.
In fact, not surprisingly, the top earners have far less free time than the poorest fifth of Americans, and their average mood is not much better.
Secondly, indications are mounting that the planet just can't take all this constantly increasing driving and shopping and fast-food eating. If the entire world consumed the way Americans do (China and India are the most obvious examples of countries headed in this direction), we would need six Earths full of resources.
So for those of you who, like me, hope to be living another 60, 70, or 80 years in this unique nation, it might be time to ask: What is our new American Dream? If it's not a house, a car, a lawn, a lifetime of job security, and a constantly rising standard of living, what are we looking for? What should we be looking for?
I don't have the definitive answer. But I have three suggestions and observations.
Time, Not Stuff
Young people prize flexibility with their time. More likely to be raised by working mothers than any generation in history, we've seen the tradeoffs and don't want to fall into the "two-income trap" where both partners work more and more hours, barely seeing each other or their kids, just to keep up with the Joneses.
Both young men and young women say over and over in employment surveys that they want time to take care of their families and their health, to be involved in their communities, and to "have a life."
As we weather this economic downturn, I predict that even more young people are going to choose -- or be pushed into -- a smaller-scale, downshifted lifestyle where they make do with less stuff and trade more money for more time.
People are already planting more gardens, driving less and riding their bikes or public transportation more, canceling their cable subscriptions, and spending more time at home. This is a perfect example of making a virtue out of necessity -- all these changes save money, but they also mean a slower, healthier lifestyle that for some is its own reward.
There are even reports in the media of young families going to the extreme with the trend of taking out a "Selling All Worldly Possessions" ad on Craigslist and taking to the road.
Meaningful Employment
Money and security are important, but research says young people really want meaning in their jobs, too.
This includes finding a personal passion and getting a chance to do something important for the world.
One employment trend that attracts young people is self-employment and entrepreneurship. This ties in to our interest in individuality and flexibility. Nearly a fifth of the workforce can be classified as non-standard in some way, and non-standard workers are twice as likely to be under 25.
Going out on your own has its tradeoffs. This part of the workforce faces greater risk, and under our current laws, they have inadequate access to benefits such as health care and nondiscrimination protection. Yet it turns out many independent workers are more satisfied with their jobs than salaried employees at an equivalent level. That's in large part because autonomy is a major key to job satisfaction.
A second popular direction for young people seeking meaning in their employment is in public service. Teach for America, where college graduates go into underserved public schools for two years, is a top entry-level employer at many elite colleges.
And last year's College Cost Reduction and Access Act established a slew of new student loan forgiveness programs for young people who go into professions including social work, nursing, law enforcement, and firefighting, which should entice even more young people into these lines of work.
And they may well find satisfaction there. In one huge employer survey, the three job categories where employees were most likely to say they had their "Dream jobs" were, in order, teacher, police officer, and firefighter.
A New New Deal
This part is more political than personal. The old American Dream included a social safety net that provided a baseline of security. As noted, this is no longer being provided adequately by employers or the government.
Young people are the largest and fastest-growing group of Americans without health insurance, we lack access to pension plans, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare is threatened by current budget positions. Young Americans in polls hold a more favorable view of government solutions than older Americans, and we are calling for new government investments in portable, flexible benefits that will restore the social safety net while controlling rising costs.
These are scary times. But after Hurricane Katrina hit my hometown of New Orleans, I learned from the courage of people struggling to rebuild. I saw that pessimism is a luxury for easy times, while optimism is a necessity for times like these. The new American Dream may be smaller and less flashy than your father's Oldsmobile, but it's more sustainable -- and maybe it can take us farther.
投資需要寧靜的心
高盛估計未來銀行業仍須集資650億美元，美國金融股結束三日反彈。恒指牛市去年10月結束，熊市一期今年3月完成，我地已進入漫長熊市二期。呢段日子利率保持低水平（或會上升四分一厘到半厘，得咁多，多D都冇），經濟數據時好時壞，恒生指數20000至26500點之間上上落落。
熊市二期，除非你係老練投資者，普通散戶都係多做多錯、少做少錯、唔做唔錯。熊市二期中，散戶經常不應出貨時出貨、不應入貨時入貨；不應賣出項目賣掉、不應買入對象卻買入。人非聖賢，有誰無錯？我老曹亦經常犯錯，為阻止自己犯大錯，熊市二期我老曹投資策略係三七分（即只動用30％本金，其餘70％以外幣存款為主），既能滿足自己投資欲，亦可證明自己眼光原來同大部分散戶差唔多。熊市二期投資策略，記住要分散、分散再分散。
至於time the market，除牛轉熊或熊轉牛，捕捉熊市二期上上落落，往往心大心細。熊市二期中做market-timing並唔容易。五窮、六絕、七翻身，睇6月份似乎諸事不宜。
《信報》三十五周年口號係「順理致遠」，強調「理」性分析、講「道理」唔講「感性」。上述口號改自孔明句「非寧靜無以致遠」。投資亦需要一顆寧靜之心，即既不樂觀亦不悲觀，處事冷靜，才能理性分析。近日香港天氣既唔係陽光普照亦唔係山崩地裂，而係滂沱大雨。有地方水浸，有地方山坭傾瀉，因此更要寧靜心情去做理性分析。如果你投資令你晚上睡得唔好便賣掉它吧，因你已過分投資！
今時今日投資戒條：一、唔好投資長期債券，擔心債券大牛市2000年開始，2003年中已結束。二、細價股只宜細細注大大聲，除非你有內幕消息，不然只宜淺嘗即止。三、強調股息率。邊D業務穩定、派息穩定股份可以多D作收息用。四、如閣下3月到5月表現不俗，Stop！今天我地面對係綿綿不絕熊市二期，唔係綿綿不絕牛市二期。唔好以為6月到8月可重演3月到5月情況。食有時、睡有時，熊市二期能夠唔蝕本成績已不俗。為避免「荒於戲」，仍可將30％本金用作投資，以免他日牛市來臨時自己仍懵盛盛。熊市二期仍投資，理由係keep your feet wet（不然你可能冇興趣再落水）。
熊市二期，除非你係老練投資者，普通散戶都係多做多錯、少做少錯、唔做唔錯。熊市二期中，散戶經常不應出貨時出貨、不應入貨時入貨；不應賣出項目賣掉、不應買入對象卻買入。人非聖賢，有誰無錯？我老曹亦經常犯錯，為阻止自己犯大錯，熊市二期我老曹投資策略係三七分（即只動用30％本金，其餘70％以外幣存款為主），既能滿足自己投資欲，亦可證明自己眼光原來同大部分散戶差唔多。熊市二期投資策略，記住要分散、分散再分散。
至於time the market，除牛轉熊或熊轉牛，捕捉熊市二期上上落落，往往心大心細。熊市二期中做market-timing並唔容易。五窮、六絕、七翻身，睇6月份似乎諸事不宜。
《信報》三十五周年口號係「順理致遠」，強調「理」性分析、講「道理」唔講「感性」。上述口號改自孔明句「非寧靜無以致遠」。投資亦需要一顆寧靜之心，即既不樂觀亦不悲觀，處事冷靜，才能理性分析。近日香港天氣既唔係陽光普照亦唔係山崩地裂，而係滂沱大雨。有地方水浸，有地方山坭傾瀉，因此更要寧靜心情去做理性分析。如果你投資令你晚上睡得唔好便賣掉它吧，因你已過分投資！
今時今日投資戒條：一、唔好投資長期債券，擔心債券大牛市2000年開始，2003年中已結束。二、細價股只宜細細注大大聲，除非你有內幕消息，不然只宜淺嘗即止。三、強調股息率。邊D業務穩定、派息穩定股份可以多D作收息用。四、如閣下3月到5月表現不俗，Stop！今天我地面對係綿綿不絕熊市二期，唔係綿綿不絕牛市二期。唔好以為6月到8月可重演3月到5月情況。食有時、睡有時，熊市二期能夠唔蝕本成績已不俗。為避免「荒於戲」，仍可將30％本金用作投資，以免他日牛市來臨時自己仍懵盛盛。熊市二期仍投資，理由係keep your feet wet（不然你可能冇興趣再落水）。
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Over-Reaction Bias
The concept of over-reaction bias. The first two parts dealt with the problems of mental accounting (compartmentalization of money into distinct and discrete "accounts") and over-confidence (a typical human trait where most people feel that they are infallible). Over-reaction bias is a type of behaviour which results in human beings over-reacting to certain news, which is another way of saying you "let your emotions override your good sense".
When applied to the stock market, over-reaction bias typically causes investors to over-react to BAD news, and react too slowly to good news. Why could this be so ? This is due to human being's tendency to panic and let fear grip him; thus over-reacting to bad news or negative information. Note that this is a natural human tendency which, from our caveman days, would have saved us from mortal danger as our bodies tend to respond to such negative stimuli by producing more adrenaline (yes, the fight or flight hormone), thus it allows us to have heightened senses and more energy to run in case we encounter danger (e.g. predators in prehistoric times). It is always better to over-react to real physical danger as we only have one life; but in the market, over-reaction bias can cause us to lose our rationality by conveying a similar "fight or flight" response. Since there is no one to "fight", most people will choose "flight" instead and sell away their investment when there is any small hint of negative news !
When viewed objectively and rationally, this might seem a very foolish, downright silly choice. After all, negative news flows in all the time and one cannot predict the sequence, extent or nature of such news accurately. On one day, it might be record inflation; on another day, it could be high oil prices and on yet another day, it may be increased unemployment or shrinking GDP growth. The point is that bad news is supposed to be part and parcel of investing and one cannot live in a fantasy world expecting nothing negative to happen to one's investments. By mentally insulating oneself from such mental shocks, one can develop better fortitude when hearing such negative news. Even for my own investments, I had recently encountered negative news in the form of record inflation in Vietnam (which affects my investment in Ezra as they have 2 yards in Vietnam) as well as a recent fire at Kreuz Shipyard which is 100% owned by Swiber.
My first reaction upon hearing this news was to calmly examine the facts of the case and to objectively assess the economic impact of the bad news. As an investor, one should be mindful of over-reaction bias causing the bad news to seem a lot worse than it sometimes is. In my case, it turns out that I discovered that Ezra's shipyards are securing contracts in USD, thus mitigating the risk of the depreciating VND; though one consideration is still rising costs of manpower as inflation kicks in. The impact will be minimal and is not likely to be long-lasting. For Kreuz, the incident was regrettable but will also not cause any serious economic harm to the company or its business. Thus, by objectively and rationally reviewing the facts of the case and delving into some research, one can pinpoint whether the bad news may have a permanent detrimental impact on one's investments; hence making the decision on whether to sell a more logical, rational one. Most of the time, if one had done sufficient research and due dilligence, I would conclude that most bad news is temporary in nature and should have already been factored in one's risk assessment when one purchases a company. Only if a black swan event occurs should it give a very compelling reason to sell an investment immediately (e.g. natural disasters destroying key assets).
To conclude, over-reaction bias is a pervasive mental force when one invests. To avoid its effects, one should always keep their wits about them when faced with bad news, and move on to objectively and coolly assess the news before taking any action. Actions taken during an adrenaline rush are usually ill-thought out and one is more prone to make costly mistakes. Always ensure that decisions made with regards to buying and selling investments are approached in a busines-like manner, which is how investing should be viewed.
When applied to the stock market, over-reaction bias typically causes investors to over-react to BAD news, and react too slowly to good news. Why could this be so ? This is due to human being's tendency to panic and let fear grip him; thus over-reacting to bad news or negative information. Note that this is a natural human tendency which, from our caveman days, would have saved us from mortal danger as our bodies tend to respond to such negative stimuli by producing more adrenaline (yes, the fight or flight hormone), thus it allows us to have heightened senses and more energy to run in case we encounter danger (e.g. predators in prehistoric times). It is always better to over-react to real physical danger as we only have one life; but in the market, over-reaction bias can cause us to lose our rationality by conveying a similar "fight or flight" response. Since there is no one to "fight", most people will choose "flight" instead and sell away their investment when there is any small hint of negative news !
When viewed objectively and rationally, this might seem a very foolish, downright silly choice. After all, negative news flows in all the time and one cannot predict the sequence, extent or nature of such news accurately. On one day, it might be record inflation; on another day, it could be high oil prices and on yet another day, it may be increased unemployment or shrinking GDP growth. The point is that bad news is supposed to be part and parcel of investing and one cannot live in a fantasy world expecting nothing negative to happen to one's investments. By mentally insulating oneself from such mental shocks, one can develop better fortitude when hearing such negative news. Even for my own investments, I had recently encountered negative news in the form of record inflation in Vietnam (which affects my investment in Ezra as they have 2 yards in Vietnam) as well as a recent fire at Kreuz Shipyard which is 100% owned by Swiber.
My first reaction upon hearing this news was to calmly examine the facts of the case and to objectively assess the economic impact of the bad news. As an investor, one should be mindful of over-reaction bias causing the bad news to seem a lot worse than it sometimes is. In my case, it turns out that I discovered that Ezra's shipyards are securing contracts in USD, thus mitigating the risk of the depreciating VND; though one consideration is still rising costs of manpower as inflation kicks in. The impact will be minimal and is not likely to be long-lasting. For Kreuz, the incident was regrettable but will also not cause any serious economic harm to the company or its business. Thus, by objectively and rationally reviewing the facts of the case and delving into some research, one can pinpoint whether the bad news may have a permanent detrimental impact on one's investments; hence making the decision on whether to sell a more logical, rational one. Most of the time, if one had done sufficient research and due dilligence, I would conclude that most bad news is temporary in nature and should have already been factored in one's risk assessment when one purchases a company. Only if a black swan event occurs should it give a very compelling reason to sell an investment immediately (e.g. natural disasters destroying key assets).
To conclude, over-reaction bias is a pervasive mental force when one invests. To avoid its effects, one should always keep their wits about them when faced with bad news, and move on to objectively and coolly assess the news before taking any action. Actions taken during an adrenaline rush are usually ill-thought out and one is more prone to make costly mistakes. Always ensure that decisions made with regards to buying and selling investments are approached in a busines-like manner, which is how investing should be viewed.
熊 市 博 反 彈 見 好 要 識 收
昨 日 香 港 股 市 極 度 沉 悶 ， 成 交 僅 482 億 ， 與 去 年 瘋 狂 時 比 較 差 得 太 遠 。 去 年 牛 市 結 束 後 ， 我 最 早 售 清 的 股 票 是 港 交 所 ， 平 均 售 價 250 元 ， 成 本 價 10 元 ， 持 有 4 年 。 為 甚 麼 最 早 沽 售 港 交 所 ？ 因 為 港 交 所 是 屬 於 所 謂 的 周 期 股 ， 港 交 所 的 開 支 成 本 與 營 業 額 沒 有 多 大 的 關 係 ， 生 意 好 、 生 意 差 ， 成 本 一 樣 ， 主 要 的 成 本 是 租 金 與 工 資 ， 不 論 生 意 好 壞 ， 都 得 付 租 金 ， 都 得 付 工 資 。 因 此 ， 在 2003 年 至 2004 年 這 兩 年 間 ， 我 多 次 呼 籲 大 家 買 港 交 所 ， 理 由 是 當 時 正 處 牛 市 初 期 ， 成 交 額 只 會 隨 牛 市 的 成 熟 ， 並 進 入 瘋 狂 而 大 大 增 加 。 成 交 額 增 加 1 倍 ， 利 潤 不 止 增 加 1 倍 ， 這 也 是 為 甚 麼 港 交 所 的 股 價 能 夠 從 10 元 升 至 250 元 （ 最 高 價 不 止 250 元 ） 。
現 在 ， 股 市 進 入 熊 市 ， 成 交 只 會 越 來 越 低 ， 不 斷 的 萎 縮 。 同 樣 的 道 理 ， 當 成 交 額 減 少 50% ， 利 潤 的 減 少 也 會 超 過 50% 。
目 前 的 成 交 額 只 等 於 去 年 高 期 的 30% ， 可 以 想 像 ， 利 潤 會 下 跌 多 少 ？ 因 此 ， 熊 市 第 一 隻 該 沽 售 的 就 是 這 類 周 期 股 。
在 熊 市 ， 只 能 小 注 怡 情 ， 熊 市 時 股 市 畢 竟 是 跌 多 升 少 ， 買 股 票 千 萬 不 能 傷 了 元 氣 、 動 搖 根 本 。 熊 市 只 有 反 彈 市 ， 沒 有 上 升 市 ； 反 彈 一 定 得 見 好 就 收 ， 適 可 而 止 。 當 然 ， 所 謂 見 好 就 收 ， 這 個 「 好 」 到 底 是 多 「 好 」 ？ 也 真 不 容 易 拿 。 我 根 據 道 氏 理 論 ， 認 為 反 彈 浪 應 該 至 少 有 下 跌 浪 的 50% ， 指 也 的 確 由 20000 點 反 彈 至 26000 點 ， 達 到 12000 點 的 下 跌 幅 度 的 50% 。 但 是 ， 道 氏 理 論 在 內 地 股 市 的 這 一 個 戰 役 似 乎 發 揮 不 了 。
現 在 ， 股 市 進 入 熊 市 ， 成 交 只 會 越 來 越 低 ， 不 斷 的 萎 縮 。 同 樣 的 道 理 ， 當 成 交 額 減 少 50% ， 利 潤 的 減 少 也 會 超 過 50% 。
目 前 的 成 交 額 只 等 於 去 年 高 期 的 30% ， 可 以 想 像 ， 利 潤 會 下 跌 多 少 ？ 因 此 ， 熊 市 第 一 隻 該 沽 售 的 就 是 這 類 周 期 股 。
在 熊 市 ， 只 能 小 注 怡 情 ， 熊 市 時 股 市 畢 竟 是 跌 多 升 少 ， 買 股 票 千 萬 不 能 傷 了 元 氣 、 動 搖 根 本 。 熊 市 只 有 反 彈 市 ， 沒 有 上 升 市 ； 反 彈 一 定 得 見 好 就 收 ， 適 可 而 止 。 當 然 ， 所 謂 見 好 就 收 ， 這 個 「 好 」 到 底 是 多 「 好 」 ？ 也 真 不 容 易 拿 。 我 根 據 道 氏 理 論 ， 認 為 反 彈 浪 應 該 至 少 有 下 跌 浪 的 50% ， 指 也 的 確 由 20000 點 反 彈 至 26000 點 ， 達 到 12000 點 的 下 跌 幅 度 的 50% 。 但 是 ， 道 氏 理 論 在 內 地 股 市 的 這 一 個 戰 役 似 乎 發 揮 不 了 。
荷包先於經濟「衰退」
衰退就係衰退，唔理係官方定義定係個人感覺。如果你去年10月冇做好防範衰退措施，今時今日雖然專家仍唔認為出現衰退，但閣下港股投資方面損失已接近資本四分一！未來經濟會否陷入衰退仍在爭拗中，但閣下財政狀況早已「衰退」！2000年3月至02年年底，官方定義美國冇衰退（美國GDP只有2001年第三季係負增長），但作為投資者如不幸重科網股，早已衰到唔清唔楚！我老曹對官方定義唔太注重，只希望投資者可避開任何跌幅超過三分一股市！
泡沫期如何？結束期如何？倫敦法興James Montier認為，除實際分析外，睇睇分析者心態亦好有趣。
泡沫期，人人大叫泡沫爆破，例如去年首三季；反之，在泡沫爆破時，佢地反而認為一切正常（business as usual）。踏入今年幾多分析員講多少次最惡劣日子已過去（the worst is behind us）？證明泡沫在一片悲觀中膨脹，在一片樂觀中爆破。擔心3月18日至5月5日升市只係典型Sucker's rally。
泡沫冇流動性過剩漲不起來
去年10月內地股市泡沫爆破，唔係乜「黑天鵝」，而係另一次可預測人類集體行為（我老曹同天文台長睇最大分歧係，佢認為天氣易測、人心難測。我老曹認為天氣難測、人類集體行為易測）。每一個泡沫由形成、脹大到爆破皆大同小異。面對第一個泡沫爆破而不曉逃避係悲劇，因人人不知（例如1973－74年香港或呢次內地A股泡沫）；第二個泡沫爆破仍唔曉逃避係鬧劇（例如1981－82年香港）。面對第三個石油泡沫已形成，等候爆破而唔願走頭，投資者仍然盲目睇好，可以講冇得救。
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
技術上睇，美國今年第二季GDP增長率進入穩定期（略有升幅），但唔代表股市可重返歡樂時光，我老曹繼續擔心熊市其中一個反彈已於5月5日結束。全球CPI上升壓力在加強中，美國極有可能今年8月宣布加息，但加幅唔會大，估計一次起兩次止。美國經濟雖然唔會出現官方定義衰退，但亦絕對唔會出現V形反彈。
泡沫期如何？結束期如何？倫敦法興James Montier認為，除實際分析外，睇睇分析者心態亦好有趣。
泡沫期，人人大叫泡沫爆破，例如去年首三季；反之，在泡沫爆破時，佢地反而認為一切正常（business as usual）。踏入今年幾多分析員講多少次最惡劣日子已過去（the worst is behind us）？證明泡沫在一片悲觀中膨脹，在一片樂觀中爆破。擔心3月18日至5月5日升市只係典型Sucker's rally。
泡沫冇流動性過剩漲不起來
去年10月內地股市泡沫爆破，唔係乜「黑天鵝」，而係另一次可預測人類集體行為（我老曹同天文台長睇最大分歧係，佢認為天氣易測、人心難測。我老曹認為天氣難測、人類集體行為易測）。每一個泡沫由形成、脹大到爆破皆大同小異。面對第一個泡沫爆破而不曉逃避係悲劇，因人人不知（例如1973－74年香港或呢次內地A股泡沫）；第二個泡沫爆破仍唔曉逃避係鬧劇（例如1981－82年香港）。面對第三個石油泡沫已形成，等候爆破而唔願走頭，投資者仍然盲目睇好，可以講冇得救。
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
技術上睇，美國今年第二季GDP增長率進入穩定期（略有升幅），但唔代表股市可重返歡樂時光，我老曹繼續擔心熊市其中一個反彈已於5月5日結束。全球CPI上升壓力在加強中，美國極有可能今年8月宣布加息，但加幅唔會大，估計一次起兩次止。美國經濟雖然唔會出現官方定義衰退，但亦絕對唔會出現V形反彈。
Land Transport
Margins under pressure due to volatile oil prices; improving ridership to cushion impact of oil price hikes
Spiralling oil prices expose Singapore’s two main land transport operators, ComfortDelgro Corporation (CD) and SMRT Corporation (SMRT), to margin pressure as they have limited ability to pass on costs. That said, we expect improving ridership to partly offset the negative impact of volatile oil prices.
CD, which has a 75% stake in SBS Transit(SBST) and overseas bus operations, is more sensitive to oil price changes while SMRT will benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments. We estimate a 1% ridership/fare improvement could roughly offset the impact of US$5.90 and US$2.10 increases in oil prices for CD and SMRT respectively. We prefer SMRT to CD amid the current uncertainties.
Earnings not so defensive against oil prices. Spiralling oil prices expose land transport operators like CD and SMRT to margin pressure. Both companies currently do not hedge against oil prices and thus are exposed to oil prices volatilities.
Direct energy costs formed 9.4% and 13.0% of CD’s and SMRT’s total operating cost in 4QFY08 and 1QFY08 respectively, up from 7.3% and 12.1% one year ago. CD's energy costs increased more quickly partly due to its larger bus fleet. In addition, both CD and SMRT need to sell diesel to taxi drivers at subsidised prices to retain taxi drivers and maintain taxi hire-out rates. CD incurred an operating loss of S$6.3m in 1QFY08, an amount equivalent to 8.4% of total operating profit, compared with a profit of S$6.4m one year ago.
Limited ability to pass on costs. As public transport operators, CD and SMRT have limited ability to pass on costs. The annual bus and rail fare adjustment is subject to Public Transport Council’s (PTC) approval. The fare adjustment formula, based on inflation, earnings and productivity, determines the cap for the adjustment, which we estimate at 3.9% for 2008.
In view of the inflationary environment and regulatory constraints, our fare adjustment assumption is lower than the cap allowed by the formula. We assume 1.0% and 1.8% adjustments for rail and bus fares respectively, to be approved in 2H08.
Improving ridership is a positive. We saw significant ridership increases for both rail and bus ridership in Jan-May 08. This could be partly attributable to the switch to public transport after the taxi fare hikes in Dec 07. Rising petrol prices are another push factor, as evidenced by the sharp ridership increase in Apr-May 08 in the wake of runaway oil prices since March.
The Singapore government’s push for public transport usage – eg by raising Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) rates and installing more gantries – is also a long-term drive to boost public transport ridership. This would improve CD’s and SMRT’s yields significantly due to their high operating leverage.
CD is more sensitive to oil price changes due to its larger taxi and bus fleet. We are assuming full-year oil prices of US$115/bbl. Buses contributed 39% of CD’s operating profit in 1QFY08, vs SMRT’s 0.4% in 4QFY08. We estimate a US$10 increase in oil prices would drag down CD’s profit by about 12.5%, vs SMRT’s 6.1% in the same event.
SMRT could withstand oil shocks slightly better. It has locked in electricity prices for rail until Oct 08, which accounted for half of its energy costs in FY08. We believe it could negotiate good rates for future contracts due to its strong market position. In addition, SMRT’s rental income, accounting for 22% of total operating profit in 4QFY08, could cushion it against oil price shocks.
SMRT Corporation (SMRT)
BUY
Current Price: S$1.80 Target Price: S$1.98
ComfortDelgro Corporation(CD SP)
HOLD
Current Price: S$1.62 Fair Price: S$1.80
SMRT would benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments,thanks to its higher operating leverage. CD’s overseas bus revenues (including the UK and Australian markets) are based on contract rates plus performance bonus rather than fare income. Therefore, CD would benefit less from ridership improvements. In the event of a 1% ridership/fare adjustment in Singapore from our base scenario, SMRT’s bottom line would be enhanced by 3.6%, higher than CD’s 2.7% rise.
In other words, a 1% ridership/fare adjustment can roughly offset the impact of US$5.90/bbl and US$2.10/bbl oil price increases for SMRT and CD respectively.
Note: SMRT’s financial year ends on 31 March.
Spiralling oil prices expose Singapore’s two main land transport operators, ComfortDelgro Corporation (CD) and SMRT Corporation (SMRT), to margin pressure as they have limited ability to pass on costs. That said, we expect improving ridership to partly offset the negative impact of volatile oil prices.
CD, which has a 75% stake in SBS Transit(SBST) and overseas bus operations, is more sensitive to oil price changes while SMRT will benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments. We estimate a 1% ridership/fare improvement could roughly offset the impact of US$5.90 and US$2.10 increases in oil prices for CD and SMRT respectively. We prefer SMRT to CD amid the current uncertainties.
Earnings not so defensive against oil prices. Spiralling oil prices expose land transport operators like CD and SMRT to margin pressure. Both companies currently do not hedge against oil prices and thus are exposed to oil prices volatilities.
Direct energy costs formed 9.4% and 13.0% of CD’s and SMRT’s total operating cost in 4QFY08 and 1QFY08 respectively, up from 7.3% and 12.1% one year ago. CD's energy costs increased more quickly partly due to its larger bus fleet. In addition, both CD and SMRT need to sell diesel to taxi drivers at subsidised prices to retain taxi drivers and maintain taxi hire-out rates. CD incurred an operating loss of S$6.3m in 1QFY08, an amount equivalent to 8.4% of total operating profit, compared with a profit of S$6.4m one year ago.
Limited ability to pass on costs. As public transport operators, CD and SMRT have limited ability to pass on costs. The annual bus and rail fare adjustment is subject to Public Transport Council’s (PTC) approval. The fare adjustment formula, based on inflation, earnings and productivity, determines the cap for the adjustment, which we estimate at 3.9% for 2008.
In view of the inflationary environment and regulatory constraints, our fare adjustment assumption is lower than the cap allowed by the formula. We assume 1.0% and 1.8% adjustments for rail and bus fares respectively, to be approved in 2H08.
Improving ridership is a positive. We saw significant ridership increases for both rail and bus ridership in Jan-May 08. This could be partly attributable to the switch to public transport after the taxi fare hikes in Dec 07. Rising petrol prices are another push factor, as evidenced by the sharp ridership increase in Apr-May 08 in the wake of runaway oil prices since March.
The Singapore government’s push for public transport usage – eg by raising Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) rates and installing more gantries – is also a long-term drive to boost public transport ridership. This would improve CD’s and SMRT’s yields significantly due to their high operating leverage.
CD is more sensitive to oil price changes due to its larger taxi and bus fleet. We are assuming full-year oil prices of US$115/bbl. Buses contributed 39% of CD’s operating profit in 1QFY08, vs SMRT’s 0.4% in 4QFY08. We estimate a US$10 increase in oil prices would drag down CD’s profit by about 12.5%, vs SMRT’s 6.1% in the same event.
SMRT could withstand oil shocks slightly better. It has locked in electricity prices for rail until Oct 08, which accounted for half of its energy costs in FY08. We believe it could negotiate good rates for future contracts due to its strong market position. In addition, SMRT’s rental income, accounting for 22% of total operating profit in 4QFY08, could cushion it against oil price shocks.
SMRT Corporation (SMRT)
BUY
Current Price: S$1.80 Target Price: S$1.98
ComfortDelgro Corporation(CD SP)
HOLD
Current Price: S$1.62 Fair Price: S$1.80
SMRT would benefit more from ridership growth or fare adjustments,thanks to its higher operating leverage. CD’s overseas bus revenues (including the UK and Australian markets) are based on contract rates plus performance bonus rather than fare income. Therefore, CD would benefit less from ridership improvements. In the event of a 1% ridership/fare adjustment in Singapore from our base scenario, SMRT’s bottom line would be enhanced by 3.6%, higher than CD’s 2.7% rise.
In other words, a 1% ridership/fare adjustment can roughly offset the impact of US$5.90/bbl and US$2.10/bbl oil price increases for SMRT and CD respectively.
Note: SMRT’s financial year ends on 31 March.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
383名基金经理 半年巨亏一万亿
他们见多识广，每人手头上都掌握着几十亿、数百亿的资金；他们是被誉为天之骄子的基金经理，他们被认为神秘而又无所不能。唯一遗憾的是，在他们身上发生了一件划时代的事情，但并不值得羡慕。2008年上半年，他们总体亏损了高达一万亿元，超过了作为国民经济支柱的169家中央企业2007年的总利润；并超过了中国在2006年和2007年两年的财政总收入；这也可能是中国历史上，中国人在这么短的时间内可能遭遇的最大财富损失。
不幸的是，同时作为享受娱乐明星般待遇的“兼职股评家”，他们的预言也非常不走运。据统计显示，总体而言，在2007年发生股市崩盘的那个秋天，正是基金经理唱多声音最高亢的时候，其时公开的乐观主义者人数众多，并且观点鲜明。很多基金经理情绪激昂地声称，中国股市的黄金十年还刚刚起步；较为典型的是，长盛同智优势增长基金经理肖强对媒体表示，“我们现在的观点与2000点时没有变化，还是坚定地做多中国”！
现任383名基金经理，在不到半年的时间里，不可思议地令一千万基民损失了一万亿元。不言而明，股市崩盘对基民来说是致命的打击。
然而，经历持续暴跌后，基金经理们开始寻找他们预测失误的理由。有基金经理对媒体表示，“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业，就像受过专业训练的医生一样，我们尚且必须接受其50%的误诊率，我们也不应该对基金经理给予过高的期望”。也许这种想法可以使他感到心安理得吧。
"“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业 "
不幸的是，同时作为享受娱乐明星般待遇的“兼职股评家”，他们的预言也非常不走运。据统计显示，总体而言，在2007年发生股市崩盘的那个秋天，正是基金经理唱多声音最高亢的时候，其时公开的乐观主义者人数众多，并且观点鲜明。很多基金经理情绪激昂地声称，中国股市的黄金十年还刚刚起步；较为典型的是，长盛同智优势增长基金经理肖强对媒体表示，“我们现在的观点与2000点时没有变化，还是坚定地做多中国”！
现任383名基金经理，在不到半年的时间里，不可思议地令一千万基民损失了一万亿元。不言而明，股市崩盘对基民来说是致命的打击。
然而，经历持续暴跌后，基金经理们开始寻找他们预测失误的理由。有基金经理对媒体表示，“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业，就像受过专业训练的医生一样，我们尚且必须接受其50%的误诊率，我们也不应该对基金经理给予过高的期望”。也许这种想法可以使他感到心安理得吧。
"“你们不要高估了共同基金，他们只不过是受过专业训练的一群人，他们的智慧并不一定高于其他行业 "
投资者心态
乐观，但不盲目乐观
谨慎，不乱发射子弹，珍惜士兵（资金）
独立逻辑思考的能力，但不钻牛角尖
耐心，无耐心就会炒来炒去
平常心，不会一时得意而忘我，不会一时失意而沮丧
自信心，做好功课后，分析后，相信自己，不轻易动摇
坚定果断，该买就买，该守就守，该放手就放.
谨慎，不乱发射子弹，珍惜士兵（资金）
独立逻辑思考的能力，但不钻牛角尖
耐心，无耐心就会炒来炒去
平常心，不会一时得意而忘我，不会一时失意而沮丧
自信心，做好功课后，分析后，相信自己，不轻易动摇
坚定果断，该买就买，该守就守，该放手就放.
Where are we headed?
Developers holding back launches since 3Q07.
Developers have remained cautious with new launches as evident in the sharp decline in the quarterly new launches from the high of 4,362 units in 2Q07 to 1,343 units in 1Q08 and many are reportedly holding back their launches due to the weak market sentiments. While bigger developers with strong balance sheet have the capacity to hold back their launches, smaller developers with high gearing may face pressure to launch their projects in a depressed market as a result of their high borrowings. And with cost of debt rising due to the credit crunch and inflation, these small developers may face increasing difficulties in securing credit lines. As such, we are cautious on small developers that had acquired land banks at high prices in 2007 and have yet to secure funding for their projects.
Take-up rate hits new low in 1Q08.
While developers continue to cut back on their launches in 1Q08, the lower number of units launched still could not be absorbed by the market, as the take-up rate for new launches has plunged sharply from 82.9% in 4Q07 to 54.4% in 1Q08, the lowest since 2000. On a segmental basis, while take-up rates in the other two regions had remained stable following sharp falls in the previous two quarters, OCR saw the rate plunge from 91.8% in 4Q07 to 38.1% in 1Q08. However, this may be due to the sharp 75.6% jump in new launches in OCR in the quarter.
Interest for mass market properties should come back.
We believe this abnormality could be due to concerns over the oversupply of mass
market properties as the take-up rate in OCR has been fairly resilient over the past two quarters, And given that only five projects with total of 1,139 units are expected to be launched in OCR between 2Q08 and 3Q08, this should ease concerns of oversupply and drive the take-up rate higher over the next few quarters.
Neutral on the sector.
We reiterate our NEUTRAL view on the Singapore residential property sector as our expectation of price weakness in the high end and price stability in the mid to mass market properties remain unchanged. Thus, we remain cautious over developers that have large land bank exposure in the high end market, like Capitaland and Keppel Land.
We are currently reviewing our calls on CapitaLand, City Developments, Keppel Land and UOL Group due to a change in analyst coverage.
Developers have remained cautious with new launches as evident in the sharp decline in the quarterly new launches from the high of 4,362 units in 2Q07 to 1,343 units in 1Q08 and many are reportedly holding back their launches due to the weak market sentiments. While bigger developers with strong balance sheet have the capacity to hold back their launches, smaller developers with high gearing may face pressure to launch their projects in a depressed market as a result of their high borrowings. And with cost of debt rising due to the credit crunch and inflation, these small developers may face increasing difficulties in securing credit lines. As such, we are cautious on small developers that had acquired land banks at high prices in 2007 and have yet to secure funding for their projects.
Take-up rate hits new low in 1Q08.
While developers continue to cut back on their launches in 1Q08, the lower number of units launched still could not be absorbed by the market, as the take-up rate for new launches has plunged sharply from 82.9% in 4Q07 to 54.4% in 1Q08, the lowest since 2000. On a segmental basis, while take-up rates in the other two regions had remained stable following sharp falls in the previous two quarters, OCR saw the rate plunge from 91.8% in 4Q07 to 38.1% in 1Q08. However, this may be due to the sharp 75.6% jump in new launches in OCR in the quarter.
Interest for mass market properties should come back.
We believe this abnormality could be due to concerns over the oversupply of mass
market properties as the take-up rate in OCR has been fairly resilient over the past two quarters, And given that only five projects with total of 1,139 units are expected to be launched in OCR between 2Q08 and 3Q08, this should ease concerns of oversupply and drive the take-up rate higher over the next few quarters.
Neutral on the sector.
We reiterate our NEUTRAL view on the Singapore residential property sector as our expectation of price weakness in the high end and price stability in the mid to mass market properties remain unchanged. Thus, we remain cautious over developers that have large land bank exposure in the high end market, like Capitaland and Keppel Land.
We are currently reviewing our calls on CapitaLand, City Developments, Keppel Land and UOL Group due to a change in analyst coverage.
May developer sales rebound 58% to six-month high, but expect more headwinds
Developer sales rebounded 58% MoM from 279 units sold in April to 441 in May, the highest take-up in six months, mainly on more new launches in the Core Central Region (CCR).
The signs are mixed, take-up was mainly from shoebox apartments of 400-600 sq ft that are affordable on a quantum basis (Vutton, 71% sold) and large luxury units that were seemingly priced at significant discounts from last year?s peak (Nassim Park Residences, 56%). Excluding these two projects, take-up rates for new launches averaged a dismal 24%.
Median selling prices continued to slide: -2% MoM to S$900/sq ft in May vs -7% in April.
We believe it is difficult for developers to lower prices significantly in existing projects for fear of antagonising earlier buyers. However, some developers are starting to lower prices for new projects eg. Dakota Residences, Shelford Suites, Nassim Park Residences.
While developers have generally underperformed, we expect more negative news flow: potential rising interest rates,
deteriorating economic data,
global slowdown,
historical high supply and
lower rents,
to hold back any sustainable rally at the stock levels.
The signs are mixed, take-up was mainly from shoebox apartments of 400-600 sq ft that are affordable on a quantum basis (Vutton, 71% sold) and large luxury units that were seemingly priced at significant discounts from last year?s peak (Nassim Park Residences, 56%). Excluding these two projects, take-up rates for new launches averaged a dismal 24%.
Median selling prices continued to slide: -2% MoM to S$900/sq ft in May vs -7% in April.
We believe it is difficult for developers to lower prices significantly in existing projects for fear of antagonising earlier buyers. However, some developers are starting to lower prices for new projects eg. Dakota Residences, Shelford Suites, Nassim Park Residences.
While developers have generally underperformed, we expect more negative news flow: potential rising interest rates,
deteriorating economic data,
global slowdown,
historical high supply and
lower rents,
to hold back any sustainable rally at the stock levels.
你，該買屋還是租屋？
房價漲幅與租金漲幅差距，因區域的不同，漲幅也有所差異，若以「房貸租金替代率」（每月可負擔租金支出上限,每月房貸支出)）計算，房貸租金替代率大或等於100%，建議可以將所付租金拿來繳房貸，直接購屋；替代率大於60%仍可以將租金繳付房貸購屋，建議購屋選擇上應考量房價較低的商圈或要選擇屋齡較高的中古屋，不然就是選擇交通便捷的次要商圈或是小宅產品為考量，實現購屋夢；替代率小於59%以下，建議還是先以租屋為優先，等經濟能力提升後，再行購屋。
雖說房價漲幅高於租金，表面上目前房價高買不起，租屋划算，舉例來說，以購屋保值、增值的角度，台大商圈2005年時房價每坪單價約25~35萬元，2008年每坪上漲到了35~55萬元，假設房子坪數以30坪計算，三年來房屋總價上漲了300~600萬元，以2005～2008年平均優惠利率3.05%計算，本利平均攤還，三年所繳貸款總額為105.2~147.4萬元、租金總額64.8~75.6萬元。
如果三年前你選擇買房子，現在就享有300～600萬元潛在的房價增值利益，即便扣除已繳房屋貸款，仍淨賺194.8～452.6萬元，但如果三年前你選擇租房子，不但損失了現今房價增值利益，還要付房租，一來一回就損失364.8～675.6萬元，因此，當然是買房子划算。
房貸租金替代率--購屋指標
民眾在租屋時，往往不會先調查租屋地點的購屋房價是多少，長久下來，每個月付出的租金可能都可以直接購買房子。所以租屋前，應該先衡量自己每月可以繳的房租上限有多少，並且換算同樣的租金可以貸到多少的房屋貸款。假設一個月可繳的房租上限為3萬元，換算下來大約可換成500萬元的房屋貸款，再衡量手上的自備款，您可以直接去尋找500萬元以上的房子購買。
以「房貸租金替代率」觀念，作為是租屋還是買房的參考指標，簡單來說，房貸租金替代率就是每月負擔房租支出的上限可以替代房貸支出的比率。
當計算出的比率大於或等於100%，就是買比租划算，建議直接購買不動產，將租金拿去繳房貸；比率在60%～99%者，仍是有能力可以購屋，建議選擇房價較低或是交通方便的次要商圈、屋齡高的產品、中古公寓大樓，不然就是選擇坪數不大的小宅或套房產品，選巷弄間非臨大馬路，如此房價就不會太高，貸款使用寬限期購屋或以借新還舊轉貸方式，減少購屋負擔同樣能一圓購屋樂；59%以下則建議還是先以租屋為考量，日後當經濟能力提升後，再考量購屋也是不錯的選擇。
雖說房價漲幅高於租金，表面上目前房價高買不起，租屋划算，舉例來說，以購屋保值、增值的角度，台大商圈2005年時房價每坪單價約25~35萬元，2008年每坪上漲到了35~55萬元，假設房子坪數以30坪計算，三年來房屋總價上漲了300~600萬元，以2005～2008年平均優惠利率3.05%計算，本利平均攤還，三年所繳貸款總額為105.2~147.4萬元、租金總額64.8~75.6萬元。
如果三年前你選擇買房子，現在就享有300～600萬元潛在的房價增值利益，即便扣除已繳房屋貸款，仍淨賺194.8～452.6萬元，但如果三年前你選擇租房子，不但損失了現今房價增值利益，還要付房租，一來一回就損失364.8～675.6萬元，因此，當然是買房子划算。
房貸租金替代率--購屋指標
民眾在租屋時，往往不會先調查租屋地點的購屋房價是多少，長久下來，每個月付出的租金可能都可以直接購買房子。所以租屋前，應該先衡量自己每月可以繳的房租上限有多少，並且換算同樣的租金可以貸到多少的房屋貸款。假設一個月可繳的房租上限為3萬元，換算下來大約可換成500萬元的房屋貸款，再衡量手上的自備款，您可以直接去尋找500萬元以上的房子購買。
以「房貸租金替代率」觀念，作為是租屋還是買房的參考指標，簡單來說，房貸租金替代率就是每月負擔房租支出的上限可以替代房貸支出的比率。
當計算出的比率大於或等於100%，就是買比租划算，建議直接購買不動產，將租金拿去繳房貸；比率在60%～99%者，仍是有能力可以購屋，建議選擇房價較低或是交通方便的次要商圈、屋齡高的產品、中古公寓大樓，不然就是選擇坪數不大的小宅或套房產品，選巷弄間非臨大馬路，如此房價就不會太高，貸款使用寬限期購屋或以借新還舊轉貸方式，減少購屋負擔同樣能一圓購屋樂；59%以下則建議還是先以租屋為考量，日後當經濟能力提升後，再考量購屋也是不錯的選擇。
Monday, June 16, 2008
什么是有钱人?
这是2008年的福布斯世界十大有钱人的排行榜:
1.沃伦·巴菲特 ~ 620亿美元
2 卡洛斯-斯利姆·赫鲁家族 ~ 600亿美元
3 比尔·盖茨 ~ 580亿美元
4 拉什米·米塔尔 ~ 450亿美元
5 穆科什·阿姆巴尼 ~ 430亿美元
6 阿尼尔·阿姆巴尼 ~ 420亿美元
7 英瓦尔·坎普拉德家族 ~ 310亿美元
8 KP·辛格 ~ 300亿美元
9 奥莱格·德里帕斯卡 ~ 280亿美元
10 卡尔·阿尔布里特 ~ 270亿美元
看看世界上的十大有钱人的排行榜,看看他们是怎样去衡量他们叫着有钱人..
以收入吗?我想不是.因为据我所知,首富巴菲特的年薪不过是百多万美金左右.如果是以这薪金来衡量的话,那我们的UNCLE LIM二世也能将这股神给拉下来.
那这福布斯到底是以什么去鉴定他们就是有钱人呢?哈!我想朋友们都应该知道,那就是资产.
什么是资产?根据富爸爸的说法就是能把钱放进你口袋的东西.对山芭佬来说资产就是在自己"免做"的时候,也能继续给你带来收入的东西.不需要自己到场监督也不需要自己去烦的东西.
山芭佬喜欢股票.特别是那些每年都会有股息的股票.因为只有这样山芭佬才可以在不需要将股票卖出的时候也能赚钱.所以山芭佬特别注重周息率(GDY).
那为什么山芭佬不选择房地产?原因除了是因为我不想去烦那些什么律师费,地税和门牌税一大堆的税务;也不想去理什么厠所塞了,屋顶漏水,门锁坏了一大堆的琐碎小事之外.
所以相对股票和房地产,我还是喜欢股票.因为需要股票所需要的资本比较小,套现比较容易,管理起来也不需要像房地产那么麻烦.哈!所以我只选择股票作为我的投资工具.
1.沃伦·巴菲特 ~ 620亿美元
2 卡洛斯-斯利姆·赫鲁家族 ~ 600亿美元
3 比尔·盖茨 ~ 580亿美元
4 拉什米·米塔尔 ~ 450亿美元
5 穆科什·阿姆巴尼 ~ 430亿美元
6 阿尼尔·阿姆巴尼 ~ 420亿美元
7 英瓦尔·坎普拉德家族 ~ 310亿美元
8 KP·辛格 ~ 300亿美元
9 奥莱格·德里帕斯卡 ~ 280亿美元
10 卡尔·阿尔布里特 ~ 270亿美元
看看世界上的十大有钱人的排行榜,看看他们是怎样去衡量他们叫着有钱人..
以收入吗?我想不是.因为据我所知,首富巴菲特的年薪不过是百多万美金左右.如果是以这薪金来衡量的话,那我们的UNCLE LIM二世也能将这股神给拉下来.
那这福布斯到底是以什么去鉴定他们就是有钱人呢?哈!我想朋友们都应该知道,那就是资产.
什么是资产?根据富爸爸的说法就是能把钱放进你口袋的东西.对山芭佬来说资产就是在自己"免做"的时候,也能继续给你带来收入的东西.不需要自己到场监督也不需要自己去烦的东西.
山芭佬喜欢股票.特别是那些每年都会有股息的股票.因为只有这样山芭佬才可以在不需要将股票卖出的时候也能赚钱.所以山芭佬特别注重周息率(GDY).
那为什么山芭佬不选择房地产?原因除了是因为我不想去烦那些什么律师费,地税和门牌税一大堆的税务;也不想去理什么厠所塞了,屋顶漏水,门锁坏了一大堆的琐碎小事之外.
所以相对股票和房地产,我还是喜欢股票.因为需要股票所需要的资本比较小,套现比较容易,管理起来也不需要像房地产那么麻烦.哈!所以我只选择股票作为我的投资工具.
投资于你所熟悉的股票
广东话有一句“不熟不做”，意思是只做自己熟悉、有把握的生意。投资也一样，应该投资于我们熟悉的行业，买我们认识/有信心的股票。林奇在这方面就是一位佼佼者。
林奇是善于挖掘“业绩”的投资者。即每只股票的选择都建立在对公司成长前景的良好期望上。这个期望来自于公司的“业绩”——公司计划做什么或者准备做什么，来达到所期望的结果。
对公司越熟悉，就能更好的理解其经营情况和所处的竞争环境，找到一个能够实现好“业绩”公司的机率就越大。因此林奇强烈提倡投资于你所熟悉的、或者其 产品和服务你能够理解的公司。林奇表示，在他的投资选择中，他认为 “汽车旅馆好过纤维光学”，从而在投资过程中，将你作为一个消费者、业余爱好者以及专业人士的三方面知识很好的平衡结合起来。
林奇不提倡将投资者局限于某一类型的股票。他的“业绩”方式，相反是鼓励投资于那些有多种理由能达到良好预期的的公司。通常他倾向于一些小型的、适度快速成长的、定价合理的公司。投资之前应进行研究。林奇发现许多人买股票只凭借预感或是小道消息，而不做任何研究。通常这一类型的投资者都将大量时间耗费在寻找市场上谁是最好的咖啡生产商，然后在纸上计算谁的股票价格最便宜。
林奇是善于挖掘“业绩”的投资者。即每只股票的选择都建立在对公司成长前景的良好期望上。这个期望来自于公司的“业绩”——公司计划做什么或者准备做什么，来达到所期望的结果。
对公司越熟悉，就能更好的理解其经营情况和所处的竞争环境，找到一个能够实现好“业绩”公司的机率就越大。因此林奇强烈提倡投资于你所熟悉的、或者其 产品和服务你能够理解的公司。林奇表示，在他的投资选择中，他认为 “汽车旅馆好过纤维光学”，从而在投资过程中，将你作为一个消费者、业余爱好者以及专业人士的三方面知识很好的平衡结合起来。
林奇不提倡将投资者局限于某一类型的股票。他的“业绩”方式，相反是鼓励投资于那些有多种理由能达到良好预期的的公司。通常他倾向于一些小型的、适度快速成长的、定价合理的公司。投资之前应进行研究。林奇发现许多人买股票只凭借预感或是小道消息，而不做任何研究。通常这一类型的投资者都将大量时间耗费在寻找市场上谁是最好的咖啡生产商，然后在纸上计算谁的股票价格最便宜。
Saturday, June 14, 2008
久跌後呈反彈
6月12日，周四。恒生指數跌303.74，收23023.86（一度低見22695點）；成交773.96億元。6月期指高水，跌109點，收23106點；估計周五股市出現技術性回升。大市仍處熊市二期，但唔應該出現直線下跌，後市恒指應20000點之上、26500點之下上上落落。
Many still not aware of housing finance limits
I WOULD like to highlight an issue on housing finance in Singapore.
Through recent conversations, I realised that many of my friends who have bought Housing Board and/or private condominiums are not aware of the policies on the 100per cent Available Housing Withdrawal Limit (AHWL) and 120per cent to 150per cent cap on Central Provident Fund withdrawals if they bought a unit recently.
For example, my friend bought a unit for $300,000. After paying for it for 10years at $1,500 a month, he hit the 100per cent
AHWL at the halfway mark of a 20-year loan. Because he has insufficient Central Provident Fund (CPF) Minimum Sum, he has to put aside that $1,500 in cash from his monthly income, which requires a big adjustment.
If he had been more aware of the policies, he could have lowered his monthly instalments, lengthened his loan period, while saving up cash as early as possible.
Over the next few years, those who have reached the 100per cent AHWL and cannot use their CPF to pay, may not have enough cash to pay their instalments.
This is especially so for many who bought their flats in the late 1990s, since the ruling came into effect only in the mid-2000s.
Most people think they can depend on their CPF, and may not have enough cash savings or income to pay the instalments.
I hope the HDB and CPF Board can come together to organise programmes to create more public awareness about the issue, and also review their policies to allow owners to maximise their CPF before they hit the AHWL. This is so that home owners do not inadvertently have to depend on cash, while their CPF remains locked in.
Currently, owners get a notice letter only a year in advance, which may not be sufficient time for them to make the necessary adjustments, such as saving up, or even downgrading.
Through recent conversations, I realised that many of my friends who have bought Housing Board and/or private condominiums are not aware of the policies on the 100per cent Available Housing Withdrawal Limit (AHWL) and 120per cent to 150per cent cap on Central Provident Fund withdrawals if they bought a unit recently.
For example, my friend bought a unit for $300,000. After paying for it for 10years at $1,500 a month, he hit the 100per cent
AHWL at the halfway mark of a 20-year loan. Because he has insufficient Central Provident Fund (CPF) Minimum Sum, he has to put aside that $1,500 in cash from his monthly income, which requires a big adjustment.
If he had been more aware of the policies, he could have lowered his monthly instalments, lengthened his loan period, while saving up cash as early as possible.
Over the next few years, those who have reached the 100per cent AHWL and cannot use their CPF to pay, may not have enough cash to pay their instalments.
This is especially so for many who bought their flats in the late 1990s, since the ruling came into effect only in the mid-2000s.
Most people think they can depend on their CPF, and may not have enough cash savings or income to pay the instalments.
I hope the HDB and CPF Board can come together to organise programmes to create more public awareness about the issue, and also review their policies to allow owners to maximise their CPF before they hit the AHWL. This is so that home owners do not inadvertently have to depend on cash, while their CPF remains locked in.
Currently, owners get a notice letter only a year in advance, which may not be sufficient time for them to make the necessary adjustments, such as saving up, or even downgrading.
小心崩壞中的美元
這陣子的美元崩壞，讓全世界很頭痛。但其實早在2003，美元崩壞的跡象，就已經很明顯了...
台灣的政府官員習慣了隨便亂講，現在連發言應該非常謹慎的中央銀行官員，說話也顯得輕率起來。最近國際金融市場一片唱衰美元，尤其對歐元更是節節敗退。針對這個讓全球金融市場關注的情勢，中央銀行總裁彭淮南日前說，歐元「曾經跌到一歐元兌○‧八美元價位」，「而且持續好一段時間」，「現在歐元回升，是長期低估後的正常反彈而已。」
彭淮南可能是唯一公開將歐元這波大漲，視為「正常反彈」的中央銀行總裁。雖然說，歐元對台灣的直接衝擊較小，而且目前為止就算有影響，顯然好處也多於壞處，但歐元兌美元的走勢卻絕不能以「正常」視之。因為，關鍵本來就不在歐元，而是美元。當這個全球最強勢的貨幣繼續崩壞下去，後果不容輕忽。央行官員擔心言多必失可以理解，但過度避重就輕卻可能顯得不負責任。
關心外匯市場的投資者已經發現，美元最近遭遇了嚴峻的貶值危機。這場危機在十二月第一個周末邁入高潮。首先，在十二月五日的星期五，美元對歐元匯率跌至一歐元兌一‧二一八美元，創下史上最低水平；緊接著在隔了周末開盤的周一東京匯市，美元兌日圓進一步跌破一美元兌一○七‧五日圓，這是二○○○年以來的新低紀錄。
美元貶值危機
從今年年初算起，美元兌歐元匯率已經快速貶值逼近兩成，三年來跌幅也高達三十五％，也就是說，假如投資者當時在歐元低檔時用美元買進歐元，然後在上周賣出，扣除匯差之後，就能賺到超過三十％的獲利，報酬率遠遠超過同一時期的任何投資工具。至於日圓，相對美元升值的幅度雖然不如歐元，但也高達一成左右，截至十一月底為止，日本為了抗拒升值，已經花了一千六百多億美元（相當於十八兆日圓），要不是日本央行強力進場干預，漲幅可能不僅於此。
除了歐元和日圓，美元與其他主要國家貨幣也出現大幅貶值的走勢。近來經濟表現強勁的澳洲，十二月初再度調高利率之後，匯率也創下六年新高，達到一澳幣兌換○‧七三六五美元，今年以來美元對澳幣的跌幅已經高達二十三％。至於尚未加入歐元區的英鎊，上周同樣改寫紀錄，創下五年來的新高點﹔瑞士法郎也出現半年來的新高水平，為美元的疲弱不堪再添一筆。
不過，回到亞洲，美元的貶值倒是還沒有對於包括台灣在內的亞洲匯市帶來太大衝擊，這應該也是央行官員至今顯得從容自在的理由。南韓的韓圜在政府強力護盤下，不升反貶，而且還在十一月二十四日創下半年來新低匯價；泰銖在十月中旬一舉大漲之後，近一個月來也幾乎沒什麼變化；馬來西亞至今仍維持金融風暴後的外匯管制，兌換美元依舊鎖定在一美元兌換三‧八零吉的低水平；中國的人民幣與港幣都是固定匯率，就不必說了。至於台灣，新台幣兌美元也沒有太強大的升值壓力。
相反地，由於這些國家大多是以出口為主，受到美元大幅貶值之賜，出口成本壓低，買氣業相當旺盛。尤其是對歐洲，鎖定美元的新台幣對歐元的匯率也不斷下滑，相對使得出口歐洲大大有利起來。不僅台灣如此，許多亞洲國家的出口競爭力大增，景氣也快速回春。南韓十月份的工業產生產指數較去年同期大幅躍升七‧四％，香港第三季國內生產毛額成長率較SARS侵襲的第二季則整整高出六‧四％。而強勁的景氣復甦則倒過來讓這些國家，有更足夠的能力在外匯市場上與投機客周旋，也較有空間承擔相對美元升值的壓力。
美元為什麼崩壞
崩壞中的美元如今看來繼續崩壞的機會頗高。短期而言，假如接下來幾周所公布的美國經濟數據有所改善，美元應該有回檔的機會﹔但長期來看，造成美元不斷崩壞的因素沒有消除，向下修正可能是難以避免的結果。
Richard Duncan最近在他頗受矚目的新書《美元大崩壞》（The Dollar Crisis）中，就深入分析了美元崩壞的原因與後果。鄧肯認為，於一九七○年代取代「金本位制」的「美元本位制」，其實是造成美元危機的元兇。因為在美元本位制的體系下，那些與美國有巨額貿易順差的國家，如今累積了龐大的外匯存底﹔而這些外匯存底當中，其實有大部分都還是流回美國，購買美國資產，例如買進美國公債、公司債、股票、不動產等，這造成美國國內的經濟過熱，以及資產價格的過度膨脹等現象。「有如火上加油般，」鄧肯說，這個資金循環「導致過度投資的現象，幾乎每個產業的投資額都到達一個極為可觀的規模，也引燃了美國的泡沫經濟，產生產能過剩和通貨緊縮的壓力，進而使得全球企業的獲利能力受到傷害。」
鄧肯認為，美國的貿易夥伴們如今正面臨抉擇，他們要不是無視於投資的安全性，繼續以美元盈餘投資在美國的美元面額資產，就得把美元盈餘轉換為本國貨幣。當然，不管做出何種抉擇，都無法盡如人意，因為如此一來就會導致該國幣值的揚升，出口和經濟成長率亦會下滑。其實近來的美元崩壞，已經讓許多國家的投資者開始這麼做。剛剛結束的十一月，外資投入美國股市的金額祇有四十億美元，創下二○○一年九月恐怖事件以來，最低的單月紀錄。來自美國境外的國際資金，在今年第二季還大買美國股票﹔但是到了第三季卻完全態度逆轉，從前一季的買超八百億美元，反轉為賣超將近一百億美元。不僅股市資金外流，房地產似乎也受到影響。一家業者估計兩年來曼哈頓的住宅價格，平均約下跌了兩成。
繼續崩壞的連鎖效應
目前為止，美元重挫尚未對全球經濟帶來太強大的衝擊。美國經濟前景應該還算不錯﹔日本在央行的強力干預之下也還算穩定。至於眾所矚目的中國，這幾個月來則是瘋狂買進美元債券。歐洲確實為歐元的升值所苦，但似乎並無法阻擋廠商的信心回升，德國企業信心指數出現了連續七個月上揚，採購經理人指數也創下二○○一年二月以來的新高。
然而，美元的崩壞已經在金融市場產生連鎖效應。例如黃金，上周金價不但突破每盎司四百美元大關，並且再度創下八年新高，周一的亞洲市場黃金價格突破四百零六美元，隔天開盤的紐約市場也寫下同樣的紀錄。受到日圓對美元升值的牽動，日本債券價格也明顯上揚。
還有油價，其實也蠢蠢欲動。由於國際油價都是以美元報價，而受到美元一貶再貶的拖累，石油輸出國家的實質收入也不斷減少。二○○○年初，石油輸出國組織將油價目標設定在每桶二十八美元，沙烏地阿拉伯石油部長阿里‧奈米不久前就提議，應該重新設定價格區間，以保障輸出國組織獲利。當然，油價的決定還有很多變數，奈米的建議未必可能，但卻可能影響周四所召開的石油輸出國組織大會。
台灣眼前要維持現有的穩定匯率與經濟成長，應該沒有太大的問題，一方面，央行本來就在干預匯市這件事情上經驗老到，彭淮南目前為止仍算稱職的總裁。加上在亞洲當前受到官員與投機客注目的主角也還是人民幣，輪不到台灣。短期內若無意外，守住新台幣不激烈升值應該不成問題。但是，長期而言倘若美元本位制的危機未除，新台幣的升值恐將難以避免，投資者應該有正確的理解與準備。央行的態度向來是金融市場的重要指標，說與不說、如何說，都是市場猜測方向的重要參考，特別是那些對金融市場似懂非懂的台灣散戶，央行或許應該多扮演一點教育的角色，幫助更多投資者認識金融市場的本質，就算不能講得太明，至少也不要誤導。
台灣的政府官員習慣了隨便亂講，現在連發言應該非常謹慎的中央銀行官員，說話也顯得輕率起來。最近國際金融市場一片唱衰美元，尤其對歐元更是節節敗退。針對這個讓全球金融市場關注的情勢，中央銀行總裁彭淮南日前說，歐元「曾經跌到一歐元兌○‧八美元價位」，「而且持續好一段時間」，「現在歐元回升，是長期低估後的正常反彈而已。」
彭淮南可能是唯一公開將歐元這波大漲，視為「正常反彈」的中央銀行總裁。雖然說，歐元對台灣的直接衝擊較小，而且目前為止就算有影響，顯然好處也多於壞處，但歐元兌美元的走勢卻絕不能以「正常」視之。因為，關鍵本來就不在歐元，而是美元。當這個全球最強勢的貨幣繼續崩壞下去，後果不容輕忽。央行官員擔心言多必失可以理解，但過度避重就輕卻可能顯得不負責任。
關心外匯市場的投資者已經發現，美元最近遭遇了嚴峻的貶值危機。這場危機在十二月第一個周末邁入高潮。首先，在十二月五日的星期五，美元對歐元匯率跌至一歐元兌一‧二一八美元，創下史上最低水平；緊接著在隔了周末開盤的周一東京匯市，美元兌日圓進一步跌破一美元兌一○七‧五日圓，這是二○○○年以來的新低紀錄。
美元貶值危機
從今年年初算起，美元兌歐元匯率已經快速貶值逼近兩成，三年來跌幅也高達三十五％，也就是說，假如投資者當時在歐元低檔時用美元買進歐元，然後在上周賣出，扣除匯差之後，就能賺到超過三十％的獲利，報酬率遠遠超過同一時期的任何投資工具。至於日圓，相對美元升值的幅度雖然不如歐元，但也高達一成左右，截至十一月底為止，日本為了抗拒升值，已經花了一千六百多億美元（相當於十八兆日圓），要不是日本央行強力進場干預，漲幅可能不僅於此。
除了歐元和日圓，美元與其他主要國家貨幣也出現大幅貶值的走勢。近來經濟表現強勁的澳洲，十二月初再度調高利率之後，匯率也創下六年新高，達到一澳幣兌換○‧七三六五美元，今年以來美元對澳幣的跌幅已經高達二十三％。至於尚未加入歐元區的英鎊，上周同樣改寫紀錄，創下五年來的新高點﹔瑞士法郎也出現半年來的新高水平，為美元的疲弱不堪再添一筆。
不過，回到亞洲，美元的貶值倒是還沒有對於包括台灣在內的亞洲匯市帶來太大衝擊，這應該也是央行官員至今顯得從容自在的理由。南韓的韓圜在政府強力護盤下，不升反貶，而且還在十一月二十四日創下半年來新低匯價；泰銖在十月中旬一舉大漲之後，近一個月來也幾乎沒什麼變化；馬來西亞至今仍維持金融風暴後的外匯管制，兌換美元依舊鎖定在一美元兌換三‧八零吉的低水平；中國的人民幣與港幣都是固定匯率，就不必說了。至於台灣，新台幣兌美元也沒有太強大的升值壓力。
相反地，由於這些國家大多是以出口為主，受到美元大幅貶值之賜，出口成本壓低，買氣業相當旺盛。尤其是對歐洲，鎖定美元的新台幣對歐元的匯率也不斷下滑，相對使得出口歐洲大大有利起來。不僅台灣如此，許多亞洲國家的出口競爭力大增，景氣也快速回春。南韓十月份的工業產生產指數較去年同期大幅躍升七‧四％，香港第三季國內生產毛額成長率較SARS侵襲的第二季則整整高出六‧四％。而強勁的景氣復甦則倒過來讓這些國家，有更足夠的能力在外匯市場上與投機客周旋，也較有空間承擔相對美元升值的壓力。
美元為什麼崩壞
崩壞中的美元如今看來繼續崩壞的機會頗高。短期而言，假如接下來幾周所公布的美國經濟數據有所改善，美元應該有回檔的機會﹔但長期來看，造成美元不斷崩壞的因素沒有消除，向下修正可能是難以避免的結果。
Richard Duncan最近在他頗受矚目的新書《美元大崩壞》（The Dollar Crisis）中，就深入分析了美元崩壞的原因與後果。鄧肯認為，於一九七○年代取代「金本位制」的「美元本位制」，其實是造成美元危機的元兇。因為在美元本位制的體系下，那些與美國有巨額貿易順差的國家，如今累積了龐大的外匯存底﹔而這些外匯存底當中，其實有大部分都還是流回美國，購買美國資產，例如買進美國公債、公司債、股票、不動產等，這造成美國國內的經濟過熱，以及資產價格的過度膨脹等現象。「有如火上加油般，」鄧肯說，這個資金循環「導致過度投資的現象，幾乎每個產業的投資額都到達一個極為可觀的規模，也引燃了美國的泡沫經濟，產生產能過剩和通貨緊縮的壓力，進而使得全球企業的獲利能力受到傷害。」
鄧肯認為，美國的貿易夥伴們如今正面臨抉擇，他們要不是無視於投資的安全性，繼續以美元盈餘投資在美國的美元面額資產，就得把美元盈餘轉換為本國貨幣。當然，不管做出何種抉擇，都無法盡如人意，因為如此一來就會導致該國幣值的揚升，出口和經濟成長率亦會下滑。其實近來的美元崩壞，已經讓許多國家的投資者開始這麼做。剛剛結束的十一月，外資投入美國股市的金額祇有四十億美元，創下二○○一年九月恐怖事件以來，最低的單月紀錄。來自美國境外的國際資金，在今年第二季還大買美國股票﹔但是到了第三季卻完全態度逆轉，從前一季的買超八百億美元，反轉為賣超將近一百億美元。不僅股市資金外流，房地產似乎也受到影響。一家業者估計兩年來曼哈頓的住宅價格，平均約下跌了兩成。
繼續崩壞的連鎖效應
目前為止，美元重挫尚未對全球經濟帶來太強大的衝擊。美國經濟前景應該還算不錯﹔日本在央行的強力干預之下也還算穩定。至於眾所矚目的中國，這幾個月來則是瘋狂買進美元債券。歐洲確實為歐元的升值所苦，但似乎並無法阻擋廠商的信心回升，德國企業信心指數出現了連續七個月上揚，採購經理人指數也創下二○○一年二月以來的新高。
然而，美元的崩壞已經在金融市場產生連鎖效應。例如黃金，上周金價不但突破每盎司四百美元大關，並且再度創下八年新高，周一的亞洲市場黃金價格突破四百零六美元，隔天開盤的紐約市場也寫下同樣的紀錄。受到日圓對美元升值的牽動，日本債券價格也明顯上揚。
還有油價，其實也蠢蠢欲動。由於國際油價都是以美元報價，而受到美元一貶再貶的拖累，石油輸出國家的實質收入也不斷減少。二○○○年初，石油輸出國組織將油價目標設定在每桶二十八美元，沙烏地阿拉伯石油部長阿里‧奈米不久前就提議，應該重新設定價格區間，以保障輸出國組織獲利。當然，油價的決定還有很多變數，奈米的建議未必可能，但卻可能影響周四所召開的石油輸出國組織大會。
台灣眼前要維持現有的穩定匯率與經濟成長，應該沒有太大的問題，一方面，央行本來就在干預匯市這件事情上經驗老到，彭淮南目前為止仍算稱職的總裁。加上在亞洲當前受到官員與投機客注目的主角也還是人民幣，輪不到台灣。短期內若無意外，守住新台幣不激烈升值應該不成問題。但是，長期而言倘若美元本位制的危機未除，新台幣的升值恐將難以避免，投資者應該有正確的理解與準備。央行的態度向來是金融市場的重要指標，說與不說、如何說，都是市場猜測方向的重要參考，特別是那些對金融市場似懂非懂的台灣散戶，央行或許應該多扮演一點教育的角色，幫助更多投資者認識金融市場的本質，就算不能講得太明，至少也不要誤導。
股神心语——股市真谛
计划篇
第1条 成功的密码是：简单的动作，不断的正确重复
第2条 操盘的精髓是：谈笑间用兵，强于紧张中求胜
第3条 没有计划不要上班，没有计划不要下单
第4条 顺势是最好的计划，逆势是最坏的神话
第5条 你不理财财不理你，你不用功迟早破功
第6条 懂得对作才能作对，不懂对作就会乱作
第7条 谈笑间可以作波段，紧张中只能玩短线
第8条 盘前要有交易计划，盘中不要听人比划
第9条 沙盘推演事前排练，知己知彼百战不厌
第10条 搜足资料市市如料，按表操课无所不克
两极篇
第11条 强不再强防转弱，弱不再弱会转强
第12条 不要企图猜头部，不要意图摸底部
第13条 假突破防真跌破，假跌破防真突破
第14条 利用恐惧回补买，利用贪婪卖出空
第15条 高档观察强势股，没有强股会转弱
第16条 低档观察弱势股，没有弱股会转强
第17条 涨幅满足是利空，跌幅满足是利多
第18条 量缩涨潮会见底，暴量退潮易见顶
第19条 赢家常套在低档，一旦反转开始赚
第20条 输家常套在高档，一旦反转开始赔
涨跌篇
第21条 趋势不容易改变，一旦改变，短期不容易再改变
第22条 低点不再屡创前高是涨，高点不再屡破前低是跌
第23条 上涨常态不须预设压力，下跌常态不要预设支撑
第24条 涨升是为了之后的跌挫，跌挫是为了之后的涨升
第25条 上涨常态找变态卖空点，下跌常态找变态买补点
第26条 涨升过程一定注意气势，跌挫过程不管有无本质
第27条 上涨常态只买强不买弱，下跌常态只空弱不空强
第28条 多头空头是一体的两面，如男孩女孩要平等看待
第29条 涨就是涨顺势看涨说涨，跌就是跌顺势看跌说跌
第30条 涨跌趋势都是我们朋友，懂得顺势就能成为好友
量价篇
第31条 每根K线都有意义，每根K线都是伏笔
第32条 量能比股价先苏醒，也同时比股价先行
第33条 涨升中的量大量小，是由空方来作决定
第34条 跌挫中的量大量小，是由多方来作决定
第35条 多空的胜负虽在价，但决定却是在于量
第36条 天量如果不是天亮，就要小心天气变凉
第37条 地量可以视为地粮，你可把握机会乘凉
第38条 量能是股价的精神，股价是量能的表情
第39条 高档量退潮防大跌，低档量涨潮预备涨
第40条 量大作多套牢居多，量小作空轧空伺候
时机篇
第41条 市场并没有新鲜事，只是不断地在重复
第42条 股市赢家一定会等，市场输家乃败在急
第43条 看对行情绝不缺席，看错行情修心养息
第44条 聪明的人懂得休息，愚笨的人川流不息
第45条 低档你我都可投资，高档大家只能投机
第46条 强势股不会永远强，弱势股不会永远弱
第47条 利用停损停利机制，避开风险反向操作
第48条 利空出尽反向买补，利多出尽反向卖空
第49条 均线纠缠三角尾端，都是大好大坏前兆
第50条 股市所有金银财宝，统统隐藏在转折里
买卖篇
第51条 不要用分析的角度操盘，而要以操盘的角度分析
第52条 拒绝未符合条件的旨令，只作主轴方向的多空单
第53条 拒绝大盘掌控我的多空，只作自己风险利润主宰
第54条 如果你莫名其妙赚到钱，迟早也会莫名其妙赔光
第55条 在线型最好时卖出多单，在线型最差时注意买讯
第56条 要善用涨升过程的回档，因非跌挫即是加码时机
第57条 要善用跌挫过程的反弹，因非涨升即是加空时机
第58条 线下只抢短主轴在作空，线上只短空主轴在作多
第59条 赚钱才加码赔钱不摊平，正确的动作不断的重复
第60条 买前不预测买后不预期，只按表操课不必带感情
赚赔篇
第61条 如果是在涨势，作多一定会赚
第62条 如果作多不赚，就不是在涨势
第63条 如果是在跌势，作空一定会赚
第64条 如果作空不赚，就不是在跌势
第65条 赚钱才有波段，赔钱当机立断
第66条 赚钱才能加码，赔钱不可摊平
第67条 赚钱才是顺势，赔钱乃因逆势
第68条 赚钱的人有胆，赔钱的人会寒
第69条 向赚钱者取经，向赔钱者取财
第70条 先看可赔多少，再算可赚多少
避险篇
第71条 不必害怕投资风险，只怕风险未被控制
第72条 只要我能避开风险，我就一定能赚到钱
第73条 在你想要赚钱之前，先估可以赔多少钱
第74条 亏损本就无法避免，作一个懂输的赢家
第75条 不可动用生活费用，不可超过自己能力
第76条 不可让获利变亏损，不可放任亏损继续
第77条 不可摊平亏损单子，遵守分批进场原则
第78条 遵守分散风险原则，遵守停损停利原则
第79条 空间停损控制纵轴，时间停损掌握横轴
第80条 拨获利到另一户头，画自己资金K线图
灵活篇
第81条 即使赢不了也绝不要赔，即使赔钱了也尽量要少
第82条 抢银行的人最懂得停损，想抢短线者最好学抢匪
第83条 来到停利点时你不要贪，出现停损点时你不要憨
第84条 小停损常常只是挨耳光，大停损通常可能断手脚
第85条 当你不怕输你就不会输，当你只想赢你就不会赢
第86条 如果你不遵守交通规则，迟早会死在交通意外中
第87条 大家都相信时就不会准，大家都不信它时就很准
第88条 留一点空间给别人去赚，也留点空间给别人去套
第89条 赢家打胜仗常常在进攻，输家打败仗常常在进贡
第90条 如果你有慧根你就会跟，因为市场它永远是对的
检讨篇
第91条 逆势操作有谁能赚，顺势操作不赚也难
第92条 赢钱是一种习惯，输钱也是种习惯
第93条 你的态度将决定，你的深度和广度
第94条 如果你还没成功，表示还没失败够
第95条 失败是宝贵经验，成功却常有陷阱
第96条 挫折是一种转折，危机是一种转机
第97条 莫名的成功同时，也是在预约失败
第98条 彻底的检讨同时，乃是在预约成功
第99条 想从股市拿多少，就看你付出多少
第100条 乌龟要赢过兔子，一定要提早出发
第1条 成功的密码是：简单的动作，不断的正确重复
第2条 操盘的精髓是：谈笑间用兵，强于紧张中求胜
第3条 没有计划不要上班，没有计划不要下单
第4条 顺势是最好的计划，逆势是最坏的神话
第5条 你不理财财不理你，你不用功迟早破功
第6条 懂得对作才能作对，不懂对作就会乱作
第7条 谈笑间可以作波段，紧张中只能玩短线
第8条 盘前要有交易计划，盘中不要听人比划
第9条 沙盘推演事前排练，知己知彼百战不厌
第10条 搜足资料市市如料，按表操课无所不克
两极篇
第11条 强不再强防转弱，弱不再弱会转强
第12条 不要企图猜头部，不要意图摸底部
第13条 假突破防真跌破，假跌破防真突破
第14条 利用恐惧回补买，利用贪婪卖出空
第15条 高档观察强势股，没有强股会转弱
第16条 低档观察弱势股，没有弱股会转强
第17条 涨幅满足是利空，跌幅满足是利多
第18条 量缩涨潮会见底，暴量退潮易见顶
第19条 赢家常套在低档，一旦反转开始赚
第20条 输家常套在高档，一旦反转开始赔
涨跌篇
第21条 趋势不容易改变，一旦改变，短期不容易再改变
第22条 低点不再屡创前高是涨，高点不再屡破前低是跌
第23条 上涨常态不须预设压力，下跌常态不要预设支撑
第24条 涨升是为了之后的跌挫，跌挫是为了之后的涨升
第25条 上涨常态找变态卖空点，下跌常态找变态买补点
第26条 涨升过程一定注意气势，跌挫过程不管有无本质
第27条 上涨常态只买强不买弱，下跌常态只空弱不空强
第28条 多头空头是一体的两面，如男孩女孩要平等看待
第29条 涨就是涨顺势看涨说涨，跌就是跌顺势看跌说跌
第30条 涨跌趋势都是我们朋友，懂得顺势就能成为好友
量价篇
第31条 每根K线都有意义，每根K线都是伏笔
第32条 量能比股价先苏醒，也同时比股价先行
第33条 涨升中的量大量小，是由空方来作决定
第34条 跌挫中的量大量小，是由多方来作决定
第35条 多空的胜负虽在价，但决定却是在于量
第36条 天量如果不是天亮，就要小心天气变凉
第37条 地量可以视为地粮，你可把握机会乘凉
第38条 量能是股价的精神，股价是量能的表情
第39条 高档量退潮防大跌，低档量涨潮预备涨
第40条 量大作多套牢居多，量小作空轧空伺候
时机篇
第41条 市场并没有新鲜事，只是不断地在重复
第42条 股市赢家一定会等，市场输家乃败在急
第43条 看对行情绝不缺席，看错行情修心养息
第44条 聪明的人懂得休息，愚笨的人川流不息
第45条 低档你我都可投资，高档大家只能投机
第46条 强势股不会永远强，弱势股不会永远弱
第47条 利用停损停利机制，避开风险反向操作
第48条 利空出尽反向买补，利多出尽反向卖空
第49条 均线纠缠三角尾端，都是大好大坏前兆
第50条 股市所有金银财宝，统统隐藏在转折里
买卖篇
第51条 不要用分析的角度操盘，而要以操盘的角度分析
第52条 拒绝未符合条件的旨令，只作主轴方向的多空单
第53条 拒绝大盘掌控我的多空，只作自己风险利润主宰
第54条 如果你莫名其妙赚到钱，迟早也会莫名其妙赔光
第55条 在线型最好时卖出多单，在线型最差时注意买讯
第56条 要善用涨升过程的回档，因非跌挫即是加码时机
第57条 要善用跌挫过程的反弹，因非涨升即是加空时机
第58条 线下只抢短主轴在作空，线上只短空主轴在作多
第59条 赚钱才加码赔钱不摊平，正确的动作不断的重复
第60条 买前不预测买后不预期，只按表操课不必带感情
赚赔篇
第61条 如果是在涨势，作多一定会赚
第62条 如果作多不赚，就不是在涨势
第63条 如果是在跌势，作空一定会赚
第64条 如果作空不赚，就不是在跌势
第65条 赚钱才有波段，赔钱当机立断
第66条 赚钱才能加码，赔钱不可摊平
第67条 赚钱才是顺势，赔钱乃因逆势
第68条 赚钱的人有胆，赔钱的人会寒
第69条 向赚钱者取经，向赔钱者取财
第70条 先看可赔多少，再算可赚多少
避险篇
第71条 不必害怕投资风险，只怕风险未被控制
第72条 只要我能避开风险，我就一定能赚到钱
第73条 在你想要赚钱之前，先估可以赔多少钱
第74条 亏损本就无法避免，作一个懂输的赢家
第75条 不可动用生活费用，不可超过自己能力
第76条 不可让获利变亏损，不可放任亏损继续
第77条 不可摊平亏损单子，遵守分批进场原则
第78条 遵守分散风险原则，遵守停损停利原则
第79条 空间停损控制纵轴，时间停损掌握横轴
第80条 拨获利到另一户头，画自己资金K线图
灵活篇
第81条 即使赢不了也绝不要赔，即使赔钱了也尽量要少
第82条 抢银行的人最懂得停损，想抢短线者最好学抢匪
第83条 来到停利点时你不要贪，出现停损点时你不要憨
第84条 小停损常常只是挨耳光，大停损通常可能断手脚
第85条 当你不怕输你就不会输，当你只想赢你就不会赢
第86条 如果你不遵守交通规则，迟早会死在交通意外中
第87条 大家都相信时就不会准，大家都不信它时就很准
第88条 留一点空间给别人去赚，也留点空间给别人去套
第89条 赢家打胜仗常常在进攻，输家打败仗常常在进贡
第90条 如果你有慧根你就会跟，因为市场它永远是对的
检讨篇
第91条 逆势操作有谁能赚，顺势操作不赚也难
第92条 赢钱是一种习惯，输钱也是种习惯
第93条 你的态度将决定，你的深度和广度
第94条 如果你还没成功，表示还没失败够
第95条 失败是宝贵经验，成功却常有陷阱
第96条 挫折是一种转折，危机是一种转机
第97条 莫名的成功同时，也是在预约失败
第98条 彻底的检讨同时，乃是在预约成功
第99条 想从股市拿多少，就看你付出多少
第100条 乌龟要赢过兔子，一定要提早出发
Friday, June 13, 2008
SMRT Future cashflows to improve with increased ridership
SMRT recently reported FY07 net profit of S$135.4m was up 30.9%, this was primarily driven by non-operating items such as tax write-back from a reduction in deferred tax liabilities (arising from the reduction in Singapore corporate tax rate) and the FY06 losses incurred by an associate (which was divested as at Mar 2006). Core earnings, better represented by operating profit, was up a mere 4.7%.
But future cash flows set to improve when the Integrated Resorts start operating.
The Singapore Tourism Board expects an additional 2m to 3m visitors in 2010, when the two integrated resorts are opened. This represents a 25% rise from the 11m projected for 2009.
SMRT’s current high taxi idle rate of 21% (though lower than Dec 06’s 24%) could plunge by then, on the back of more demand for taxi services by visitor arrivals. In addition, rail services will also benefit from improved ridership when the integrated resorts contribute to overall economic growth. Also the potential for SMRT to operate more rail lines eg. the recently-approved Downtown Lines.
Target price for SMRT is S$2.10. This comprises the following:
a) S$1.55 for existing operations (which has factored in cannibalisation from the 2010 commencement of Circle Line operation),
b) S$0.17 for the Circle Line
c) S$0.38 value enhancement assuming the land transport review will lead to one operator running all rail and bus operations in Singapore.
But future cash flows set to improve when the Integrated Resorts start operating.
The Singapore Tourism Board expects an additional 2m to 3m visitors in 2010, when the two integrated resorts are opened. This represents a 25% rise from the 11m projected for 2009.
SMRT’s current high taxi idle rate of 21% (though lower than Dec 06’s 24%) could plunge by then, on the back of more demand for taxi services by visitor arrivals. In addition, rail services will also benefit from improved ridership when the integrated resorts contribute to overall economic growth. Also the potential for SMRT to operate more rail lines eg. the recently-approved Downtown Lines.
Target price for SMRT is S$2.10. This comprises the following:
a) S$1.55 for existing operations (which has factored in cannibalisation from the 2010 commencement of Circle Line operation),
b) S$0.17 for the Circle Line
c) S$0.38 value enhancement assuming the land transport review will lead to one operator running all rail and bus operations in Singapore.
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