With projects held back, firms lease out units bought in collective sales
STAYING ON:
The consortium that bought Lincoln Lodge has allowed occupants to keep renting homes for six months from the sale completion date of July 8.
PROPERTY developers such as Koh Brothers and GuocoLand, which bought collective sale sites during boom times, are now becoming landlords as they wait out the market slowdown.
They are leasing out apartments they bought to existing occupants as a way to generate some income instead of simply leaving them vacant.
If the property upswing had continued, these developers might well have moved quickly to tear down the older homes to put up new developments.
But the sharp slowdown in home sales has put paid to such thoughts for now.
Market observers say renting is a nimble move given present market conditions.
For sellers of units in collective deals who have yet to buy a new home, it is a win-win situation as they would have collected their sale proceeds.
Take, for example, the consortium that bought freehold Lincoln Lodge for $243 million in June last year.
It has decided to allow occupants to keep renting homes for six months from the sale completion date of July 8, and thereafter on a monthly extension basis.
'Upon requests by some of the sellers to stay on, and while waiting for approvals, we have decided to grant them this request by extending a lease,' said Mr Francis Koh, Koh Brothers' managing director and chief executive.
Rents at Lincoln Lodge range from $2,700 to about $4,500 for larger units.
In the middle of last year, at the height of the collective sale frenzy, Koh Brothers bought the Newton site with Heeton Holdings, KSH Holdings and Lian Beng Group for a record $1,449.30 per sq ft (psf) per plot ratio.
A Lincoln Lodge seller, who wished to be known only as Mr Tan, welcomed the rental move as sellers had collected sale proceeds in January, and those who had not bought a home could take their time.
'It's an option...I know someone who negotiated the rent down to $2,500,' he said.
GuocoLand seems to be the early rental front runner.
It offered residents short-term leases at Sophia Court in Adis Road last year, followed by Leedon Heights off Holland Road earlier this year. The leases started in March at Sophia Court and yesterday at Leedon Heights. Both last till Jan 31 next year.
A three-bedroom unit at Leedon Heights costs $2,850 a month, while rents at Sophia Court range from $800 to more than $4,000 a month.
GuocoLand bought Leedon Heights in April last year for $835 million and Sophia Court in late 2006 for $230 million.
Renting out units is a way to 'wait out the current quiet in the market', said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak.
'If developers were to launch their projects now, it may be challenging for them to reach their target price for some of the projects.'
Frasers Centrepoint said it may offer short-term leases to the former owners of the 185-unit Flamingo Valley, a freehold site in Siglap Road that it bought for $194 million in February last year.
'We had 50 owners who wrote to ask us to extend their lease...They haven't found anything suitable,' said the firm's general manager of development and property, Mr Cheang Kok Kheong.
He said the firm was likely to extend a lease of six months to a year. This would 'give us more time to think about our plans'.
City Developments (CDL) has said it is still exploring the renting option.
Renting out apartments bought in collective sales is not new. CDL did so a few years back, when it rented out all 124 apartments in Kim Lin Mansion in Grange Road.
It had bought it in late 1999 for $251 million, or $996 psf of potential built-up area, but pushed it out for sale only at the height of the property boom last year. It fetched prices of $3,600 psf.
Win-win deal
Developers lease out units to generate income instead of leaving them empty as they sit out the market slowdown.
Sellers of collective sale projects who have yet to buy new homes can stay on in their existing units as tenants.
TOUGH TARGET
'If developers were to launch their projects now, it may be challenging for them to reach their target price for some of the projects.'
MR MAK of Knight Frank, on companies holding out for better prices
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
熱……錢會繼續
中金公司首席經濟學家哈繼銘表示，今年越南多項經濟指標已亮起紅燈，貨幣危機一觸即發。5月份通脹率已達25.2％，5月19日央行將基準利率由8.75厘調升至12厘，銀行貸款利率上升到18厘，仍遠低於通脹率，未能有效控制通脹預期。今年1月至5月貿赤144億美元，外債規模已達240億美元，相等於GDP 30.2％，政府財赤已超過GDP 5％危險線。越南盾今年3月至上周五兌美元貶值2.7％，十二個月期貨較現貨低30％；越南股市今年跌55％。上周惠譽將越南主權評級展望由「穩定」改為「負面」。依家越南情況已同東南亞國家1997年面對亞洲金融危機前差唔多。
《廣州日報》報道，4月份中國外儲備增長744.6億美元，扣除貿易順差及外商直接投資後，不能解釋外流入高達501.8億美元。呢500億美元相信有唔少流入內地房地產及股市，部分則存入銀行。換言之，流動性過剩問題到今年4月仲未解決。由於投機者認為人民幣可見六算，人民幣出現1美元兌6元人民幣前，熱錢仍會流入，估計家熱錢規模已經達6500億美元。冇人知道呢筆資金幾時會流出，一旦出現，將嚴重威脅國內經濟同金融市場穩定性。
1952年美國家庭流動資產係負債250％（即手上現金或隨時可變現投資達負債250％），到去年卻回落到70％（即手上現金或隨時可變現投資係負債金額70％）。美國家庭手上流動資產減除負債最高峰係1990年，達淨流動資產1萬億美元以上；最差係2006年，為淨負債3萬億美元。1990至2006年美國到底發生乜事，令美國家庭由淨流動資產變成淨負債？就係因為次按日漸流行，愈愈多人借錢買樓，美國人從樓價上升中賺錢去消費。到2006年下半年美國樓價唔再上升，去年出現次按危機，鐘擺又由一邊擺向另一邊，長達十七年，由次按支持引發樓價上升潮結束，各位信唔信短期內可以解決？加上美國戰後嬰兒潮開始進入退休潮，愈愈多美國人賣樓套現。從呢個角度睇，美國樓價由2006年下半年開始調整唔會不久將來結束。
索羅斯認為，英國樓按情況較美國更差，依家先開始回落，對英國銀行影響較去年對美國銀行影響更大。英國家庭負債係個人收入148％（美國係125％），而英國金融業佔英國經濟8.5％（美國佔7.5％），加上英國政府決定向外國人抽稅，令唔少高收入外國人打算離開倫敦去蘇黎世，將進一步推低倫敦樓價。
Oppenheimer & Co銀行分析員Meredith Whitney去年曾提出警告，美國樓價回落遲早影響美國銀行。佢最近接受彭博TV訪問認為，另一場信貸危機快將開始。呢次係美國消費項目再次打擊美國銀行業，理由係銀行將信用卡貸款證券化後市場出售。過去消費者唔使擔心信用卡還款能力（因樓價上升，未能支付信用卡貸款亦可轉為樓按──本港亦漸漸流行矣）。信用卡貸款不但息高，而且呆賬率唔高。依家樓價回落，美國人信用卡貸款再唔能夠輕易轉為樓按貸款，8000億美元信用卡貸款點樣處理？
《廣州日報》報道，4月份中國外儲備增長744.6億美元，扣除貿易順差及外商直接投資後，不能解釋外流入高達501.8億美元。呢500億美元相信有唔少流入內地房地產及股市，部分則存入銀行。換言之，流動性過剩問題到今年4月仲未解決。由於投機者認為人民幣可見六算，人民幣出現1美元兌6元人民幣前，熱錢仍會流入，估計家熱錢規模已經達6500億美元。冇人知道呢筆資金幾時會流出，一旦出現，將嚴重威脅國內經濟同金融市場穩定性。
1952年美國家庭流動資產係負債250％（即手上現金或隨時可變現投資達負債250％），到去年卻回落到70％（即手上現金或隨時可變現投資係負債金額70％）。美國家庭手上流動資產減除負債最高峰係1990年，達淨流動資產1萬億美元以上；最差係2006年，為淨負債3萬億美元。1990至2006年美國到底發生乜事，令美國家庭由淨流動資產變成淨負債？就係因為次按日漸流行，愈愈多人借錢買樓，美國人從樓價上升中賺錢去消費。到2006年下半年美國樓價唔再上升，去年出現次按危機，鐘擺又由一邊擺向另一邊，長達十七年，由次按支持引發樓價上升潮結束，各位信唔信短期內可以解決？加上美國戰後嬰兒潮開始進入退休潮，愈愈多美國人賣樓套現。從呢個角度睇，美國樓價由2006年下半年開始調整唔會不久將來結束。
索羅斯認為，英國樓按情況較美國更差，依家先開始回落，對英國銀行影響較去年對美國銀行影響更大。英國家庭負債係個人收入148％（美國係125％），而英國金融業佔英國經濟8.5％（美國佔7.5％），加上英國政府決定向外國人抽稅，令唔少高收入外國人打算離開倫敦去蘇黎世，將進一步推低倫敦樓價。
Oppenheimer & Co銀行分析員Meredith Whitney去年曾提出警告，美國樓價回落遲早影響美國銀行。佢最近接受彭博TV訪問認為，另一場信貸危機快將開始。呢次係美國消費項目再次打擊美國銀行業，理由係銀行將信用卡貸款證券化後市場出售。過去消費者唔使擔心信用卡還款能力（因樓價上升，未能支付信用卡貸款亦可轉為樓按──本港亦漸漸流行矣）。信用卡貸款不但息高，而且呆賬率唔高。依家樓價回落，美國人信用卡貸款再唔能夠輕易轉為樓按貸款，8000億美元信用卡貸款點樣處理？
三不买
股票投资风险高，故投资者所承受的精神压力也特别大。尤其是投机者，在买进之后，总是提心吊胆，深恐血汗钱泡汤。所以，身在办公室，心却在股市，时刻生活在烦恼中，情绪受到干扰，甚至与家人的关系也受到影响，所付出的代价实在太大了。
如果生活不快乐，钱赚得再多，也没有意义。
假如你总是为股票而心烦，我劝你还是早日脱离股市，因为你不适合投资股票。
假如你认为股市是一条适合你的投资管道，那么，就必须设法控制自己的情绪，减少股市波动的冲击。
其实，这并不难，只要有正确的投资态度，同时下定决心，遵循一些简单的原则，就可以减少股票投资所引发的烦恼。
我的经验，也许可供参考。
我有三个“不买”的原则！
第一个原则，不买我不放心的公司的股票。
我常常出国，以前是公干，现在是观光。尤其是在退休之后，出国更频仍，一年少则六、七次，多则十次、八次，短则数天，长则大半个月，天涯海角、无远弗届。
在我买进股票的时候，我总是问自己一个问题：假如我出国旅行半个月，而旅途中没有我所买股票的信息，我会担心吗？
如果答案是“会”的话，很明显的，这只股票不恰合我投资。无论基本因素多么强稳，我都不会买进。
第二个原则：不买时时刻刻都要盯住它的股票。
如果在买进之后，我担心公司会“烂”掉；或公司领导人会耍花招把公司掏空；或是买价太高，股价随时下跌而使我蒙受亏损。只要具有以上情况中的任何一种，我都不会买进。
换句话说，在买进后整天要花时间去监视的股票，不恰合我投资。
我不希望终日生活在惶恐不安中，尤其是在退休之后。
第三个原则：在买进一只股票之后，万一股价大跌，我不敢买进更多，这种股票，我也不买。
没有人能担保，买进后股价不会下跌。
坚持原则生活轻松
在买进后，受到熊市的影响，股价一跌再跌，是很平常的事。
假如在股价大跌之后，你不敢买进更多同一只股票，表示你对这只股票，认识不够、信心不足，因此在价值被极度低估时，应该是最好的增加投资的时机，你却不敢加码，因而错过了低价买进好股的良机。
所以，在买进时，我总是问自己：假如股价大跌的话，我敢买进更多吗？
如果答案是“不”的话，我也不会买进。
当然，在股价大跌后，我还要做更多的功课，确定股价的下跌，不是基本因素改变，而是股市下跌的影响，这样才可加码买进。
如果基本因素改变了，即使股价已跌了一大截；我也加码买进，否则的话，我会亏得更多，甚至倾家荡产。
坚守以上的“三不买”，使我生活轻松，旅途愉快。
如果生活不快乐，钱赚得再多，也没有意义。
假如你总是为股票而心烦，我劝你还是早日脱离股市，因为你不适合投资股票。
假如你认为股市是一条适合你的投资管道，那么，就必须设法控制自己的情绪，减少股市波动的冲击。
其实，这并不难，只要有正确的投资态度，同时下定决心，遵循一些简单的原则，就可以减少股票投资所引发的烦恼。
我的经验，也许可供参考。
我有三个“不买”的原则！
第一个原则，不买我不放心的公司的股票。
我常常出国，以前是公干，现在是观光。尤其是在退休之后，出国更频仍，一年少则六、七次，多则十次、八次，短则数天，长则大半个月，天涯海角、无远弗届。
在我买进股票的时候，我总是问自己一个问题：假如我出国旅行半个月，而旅途中没有我所买股票的信息，我会担心吗？
如果答案是“会”的话，很明显的，这只股票不恰合我投资。无论基本因素多么强稳，我都不会买进。
第二个原则：不买时时刻刻都要盯住它的股票。
如果在买进之后，我担心公司会“烂”掉；或公司领导人会耍花招把公司掏空；或是买价太高，股价随时下跌而使我蒙受亏损。只要具有以上情况中的任何一种，我都不会买进。
换句话说，在买进后整天要花时间去监视的股票，不恰合我投资。
我不希望终日生活在惶恐不安中，尤其是在退休之后。
第三个原则：在买进一只股票之后，万一股价大跌，我不敢买进更多，这种股票，我也不买。
没有人能担保，买进后股价不会下跌。
坚持原则生活轻松
在买进后，受到熊市的影响，股价一跌再跌，是很平常的事。
假如在股价大跌之后，你不敢买进更多同一只股票，表示你对这只股票，认识不够、信心不足，因此在价值被极度低估时，应该是最好的增加投资的时机，你却不敢加码，因而错过了低价买进好股的良机。
所以，在买进时，我总是问自己：假如股价大跌的话，我敢买进更多吗？
如果答案是“不”的话，我也不会买进。
当然，在股价大跌后，我还要做更多的功课，确定股价的下跌，不是基本因素改变，而是股市下跌的影响，这样才可加码买进。
如果基本因素改变了，即使股价已跌了一大截；我也加码买进，否则的话，我会亏得更多，甚至倾家荡产。
坚守以上的“三不买”，使我生活轻松，旅途愉快。
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
控制CPI升幅代價係大衰退
過去歷史，每次美國經濟泡沫破滅後，會導致國際資金回流美國，道指年底有望重返14500點，因為美元國際貨幣體系中仍處絕對優勢，美元透過大幅貶值將次按危機轉嫁，讓國際市場共同分擔，彌補和緩解流動性不足問題。例如呢次歐洲央行向市場注資遠超過美國本土，次按危機雖然發生美國，卻由國際市場共同分擔損失。
美國3月份核心CPI漲幅2.3％、歐羅區3.6％，俄羅斯4月份CPI漲幅14.3％，南韓、印度、印尼、中國、菲律賓、越南CPI漲幅亦創下多年新高。過去流動性過剩推高股市同樓價，令消費升幅擴大、能源短缺，導致商品甚至農產品價格上升。次按危機導致美國為首央行減息，再向市場注入流動性，國際油價一度見135美元一桶，玉米價格創新高。通脹已成世界通病。
事實證明，一旦利率低於CPI增長率，CPI便會漸漸唔受控制咁上升。過去中國、泰國、菲律賓等八個亞洲國家將貸款利率維持CPI升幅之下，產生負利率。美國2003年亦曾出現負利率，其後將利率推高；去年9月起又再減息，至今美國亦係負利率。咁多國家維持負利率，通脹又點能受控制？例如越南CPI大幅上升後，近期將利率推高至8.75厘，引發股市大災難（1997年7月本港早有先例），上述並非越南獨有。換言之，CPI大幅上升，之後才將利率推高至CPI升幅2厘或以上，雖然可控制未來CPI升幅，代價係經濟大衰退，因此任何時間皆不宜將利率推低至CPI升幅之下，各國央行不應為眼前利益而將利率壓低於CPI升幅，尋求短期利益。
1998年油價12.28美元一桶，今年5月最高見135美元，十年工夫油價上升十倍；其中最大升幅係去年5月至今年5月由62美元升上135美元，油價能否重見80美元一桶？maybe or maybe not。
投資界泰斗Dennis Gartman要求美國政府出售戰略石油儲量一億桶以壓抑油價，法國財長拉加德要求各國央行好好整理貨幣政策，矛頭直指美國近年不負責任貨幣政策係油價上升底因。
上周油價極端超買後，由135美元一桶回落，但上升軌未失守，未能肯定D乜。5月27日止投機性持有石油長倉合約已減少至二萬五千八百六十七張（去年7月31日係十二萬七千四百九十一張），即投機性持倉已大量獲利回吐，今後油價升降更能反映實質因素。
太平洋投資管理公司CEO Mohamed El-Erian認為，各國主權基金正阻止美國經濟熔毀（meltdown）。例如阿布扎比投資75億美元買花旗可換股債券；科威特投資30億美元買花旗股份，20億美元買美林證券；淡馬錫用44億美元買美林股份，新加坡投資局用69億美元買花旗；中國投資公司用50億美元買大摩可換股債券。咁做雖可阻止美國金融體系熔毀，但不能令美國經濟重新振作起來。
美國3月份核心CPI漲幅2.3％、歐羅區3.6％，俄羅斯4月份CPI漲幅14.3％，南韓、印度、印尼、中國、菲律賓、越南CPI漲幅亦創下多年新高。過去流動性過剩推高股市同樓價，令消費升幅擴大、能源短缺，導致商品甚至農產品價格上升。次按危機導致美國為首央行減息，再向市場注入流動性，國際油價一度見135美元一桶，玉米價格創新高。通脹已成世界通病。
事實證明，一旦利率低於CPI增長率，CPI便會漸漸唔受控制咁上升。過去中國、泰國、菲律賓等八個亞洲國家將貸款利率維持CPI升幅之下，產生負利率。美國2003年亦曾出現負利率，其後將利率推高；去年9月起又再減息，至今美國亦係負利率。咁多國家維持負利率，通脹又點能受控制？例如越南CPI大幅上升後，近期將利率推高至8.75厘，引發股市大災難（1997年7月本港早有先例），上述並非越南獨有。換言之，CPI大幅上升，之後才將利率推高至CPI升幅2厘或以上，雖然可控制未來CPI升幅，代價係經濟大衰退，因此任何時間皆不宜將利率推低至CPI升幅之下，各國央行不應為眼前利益而將利率壓低於CPI升幅，尋求短期利益。
1998年油價12.28美元一桶，今年5月最高見135美元，十年工夫油價上升十倍；其中最大升幅係去年5月至今年5月由62美元升上135美元，油價能否重見80美元一桶？maybe or maybe not。
投資界泰斗Dennis Gartman要求美國政府出售戰略石油儲量一億桶以壓抑油價，法國財長拉加德要求各國央行好好整理貨幣政策，矛頭直指美國近年不負責任貨幣政策係油價上升底因。
上周油價極端超買後，由135美元一桶回落，但上升軌未失守，未能肯定D乜。5月27日止投機性持有石油長倉合約已減少至二萬五千八百六十七張（去年7月31日係十二萬七千四百九十一張），即投機性持倉已大量獲利回吐，今後油價升降更能反映實質因素。
太平洋投資管理公司CEO Mohamed El-Erian認為，各國主權基金正阻止美國經濟熔毀（meltdown）。例如阿布扎比投資75億美元買花旗可換股債券；科威特投資30億美元買花旗股份，20億美元買美林證券；淡馬錫用44億美元買美林股份，新加坡投資局用69億美元買花旗；中國投資公司用50億美元買大摩可換股債券。咁做雖可阻止美國金融體系熔毀，但不能令美國經濟重新振作起來。
Sunday, June 1, 2008
贏家的修煉／克服投資心魔富一生
台股轉強，人氣回籠，過去半年的股災惡夢看似遠去。然而，學者專家此時卻提醒投資人，必須細細回想這場股災。因為，所有被人性心理所引導而成錯誤決策，必然都在股災現形，看見了，未來才能避得開。股災很痛苦，重新回想更殘忍，但這卻是投資進化的必經之路，一場從輸家變贏家的必要修煉。
■轉折／漲熱絡、跌冷清的人性廳堂
營業廳的場景彷彿就是股市眾生的一方縮影。行情走空，營業廳裡的人都不見了，不聽股價不看走勢，不願接受精神折磨；若是一旦行情轉強，人們就忽然顯得精神奕奕、自信滿滿。這或許是人之常情的心理反應，然而，在行為財務學專家的眼裡，這些人之常情的心理反應，卻是造成多數人陷入投資失敗命運的惡性基因。
「心理狀態影響投資行為，投資失敗的原因，九○％以上是來自於『人之常情』的心理！」世新大學財金系副教授，也是國內行為財務學的權威學者郭敏華說。
然而，郭敏華也提醒投資人，與其急躁入市，不如先回頭想想過去半年來股災期間的操作策略與投資行為，「從頭到尾仔仔細細地想過一輪，揪出那個曾經讓你遭受股災重擊的心理問題，這個過程，對於你的投資功力將有極大幫助。」
如果你已走出股災，恭喜你！如果你正打算重回股市，可以，時機不差，但也請你學會股災期間所給你的一堂課，這堂課的重點非關行情判斷的正確或失誤，而是關於所有投資行為的基本核心—— 投資心理學。或許不能讓你買到飆股短期致富，但絕對是在投資長路上能夠助你趨吉避凶的必修學分。
■心魔一：驕傲／對自己判斷太自信，導致隨便投資
「一定要從股災之前開始回想嗎？」廖太太怯怯地問，因為她簡直不敢多想，半年前，她的手上還有千萬元以上現金。
說起廖太太的股海浮沉，真可用大起大落來形容。她曾經把老公留下來的兩千萬元退休老本，玩到只剩兩百多萬元。「後來遇到一位中實戶，才又賺回一千多萬元。可惜，這位中實戶在去年八月說他不玩了。」
沒有達人老師帶進帶出，廖太太卻也閒不下來，「過去一年多來的經驗告訴我，買股票賺錢是很容易的事啊！」她要自己找明牌，每天一回到家就打開電視，轉到八十台以後的投顧老師節目，「每台都看，覺得這樣才能一網打盡『有人在顧』的股票。」聽一檔、買一檔，雖然也有少數個股小賺出場，但多數持股卻是嚴重套牢，半年下來賠掉八百多萬元。
股市名家李挺生分析，廖太太的第一個問題，也是多數投資大眾的通病，「隨便買，這是一切錯誤的開始。」他表示，隨便買的情況有兩種：一種是人云亦云，聽到明牌就搶進；另一種是衝動行事，看到指數上漲，就急著隨手挑一檔股票一賭運氣。無論是哪一種，都是在你不熟悉這檔股票的情況之下買進的。
因為不熟悉，所以不知道這檔股票接下來的漲或跌究竟是否合理：跌下來是市場錯殺嗎？漲上去是反映基本面或者純屬運氣？無從判斷，於是也就無法掌握停利或停損的適當時機，「簡單地說，當你隨便買之後，對於出場時機的掌握，就只能憑感覺、用猜的。」
李挺生口中的隨便買，其實頗為貼近投資心理學所討論的「過度自信」效應。美國著名財經學家，同時也是《投資心理學》一書的作者約翰．納夫辛格就表示：「人們總會有一種幻覺，認為自己所買的股票一定會強過其他股票。於是造成過度投資，或者過度承擔風險的結果。」
過度自信的心態屬於人之常情。換言之，多數人恐怕都有這樣的問題：容易相信自己的預測，然後，隨便買。
■心魔二：不服輸／害怕認輸的心態，造成出盈保虧
不幸的，李挺生說中了廖太太的命運。由於無法掌握適當的出場策略，只能憑感覺操作，因此她又一步步地踏進了第二個人性陷阱。
「一個月前，我終於沒錢再買股票了，想說賣出一點套牢的股票換現金，把記載股票交易的小本子拿出來，算了一下，這才發現手中的套牢股票，竟然多達五十檔。」五十檔套牢股票？她說，當時一度懷疑自己有沒有看錯。
郭敏華解讀，廖太太的第二個錯誤是「出盈保虧」，把小賺的股票都賣掉，而不願處理已經套牢的部位；漸漸的，滿手套牢，心理壓力愈來愈大，也愈來愈不可能理性因應盤勢變化。
「這種行為的背後隱藏著一個基本人性，人都喜歡追求自尊，討厭承認失敗，賣掉小賺股票實現獲利，能讓人感到快慰；而賣掉賠錢的股票等於承認自己投資失敗，基於人性，多數人會盡量避免。」郭敏華強調，這就是投資心理學所謂的「處分效應」。
根據世新大學針對國內股市投資人的一項調查，大約有五六％的投資人在決定賣出持股時，會優先考慮賣掉賺錢的股票。而在世新大學的另一個調查當中則指出，投資人若回頭自我檢討投資失敗的主要原因，有四五％的受訪者承認，是因為沒有做好停損動作。兩項數據說明，出盈保虧的處分效應是常見的人性心理，同時，也是投資績效的恐怖殺手。
出盈保虧是錯誤的選擇，但是更致命的重傷害，來自於「攤平」的心態。
陳媽媽是一位針灸師，在台北市萬華地區開業多年，如果是在平日上午掛號的客人，大概都知道診間的電視永遠鎖定股市頻道。「有些客人看我在玩股票，就開始報明牌。其中一位客人總是很準，應該說，過去都很準。」
去年年初開始，陳媽媽跟著客人的明牌買股票，嘗到不少甜頭，「就那一次，他叫我買一檔叫作原相的股票，還說是最後上車機會，股價將會飆漲。」她清楚記得，那一天是七月十日，原相股價的最高點，「我插完針就立刻打電話下單，買了兩張，買在五六五元。」
■心魔三：活在過去／考慮過去的成本，才會選擇攤平
隔日，原相股價向下急跌，陳媽媽沒有多想，決定再加碼兩張，「好像被催眠一樣，沒有想到會跌，只想到這樣可以降低成本，一旦飆漲，回本的速度更快。」她說出她的加碼邏輯，依循這個邏輯，原相一路下跌，她則一路攤平，不到兩周時間，手中已有二十張原相持股，平均成本五一○元。
結果，原相股價最低跌到一四○元左右。一月下旬，陳媽媽終於受不了資金壓力，而開始陸續停損出場。「每張大約賠掉三十五萬元，二十張，總共差不多賠了七百萬元。可惡的是，那個報牌的傢伙再也沒有來過了。」她憤憤地說。
世新大學做過這樣一個問卷調查：若你決定買進一檔個股，但在下單之前忽然看到這檔個股的負面消息，你會怎麼做？約有四九％的受訪者表示會暫緩下單。不過，如果是在「已經買進」這檔個股之後才看到負面消息，超過九成的受訪者卻都表示不會將持股賣出。
只因為「已經買進」，持股意願就立刻提高，這就是投資心理學中所謂的「沉沒成本效應」：當下的決策判斷，會受到已經付出的成本所影響。
這種心態反映在投資行為上，最明顯的就是攤平。郭敏華認為，賠錢的股票並非不能加碼買進，但買進的理由必須是「現在這個價位更值得買」，而不是「這樣一來，我的成本就降低許多」。這是兩種思考邏輯，一種是分析未來，一種是受困於過去。「走出過去的框框，才能看到新的可能。」郭敏華說。
■心魔四：鴕鳥／不能正視危機，讓你錯失反攻良機
若能擺脫股災期間的陰影，關注未來，那麼，在二月以來的台股強勢反彈當中，投資人不難獲得可觀利潤。
可惜，從融資餘額的變化狀況來看，多數散戶似乎沒有抓準這一波的台幣升值行情。根據交易所資料，一月底，台股融資餘額約在三○一三億元；至二月十九日大盤已經明確展開反彈行情時，融資餘額反倒降低至二九六六億元，顯然散戶未在低檔掌握最佳布局時機。
散戶為何總是慢半拍？美國知名的行為經濟學家喬治．魯文斯坦研究發現，「鴕鳥效應」或許就是其中解答。
所謂鴕鳥效應，意指投資人在行情好的時候，會經常檢視自己的報酬率和投資組合；但當行情走跌時，多數人就對報酬率和手中股價、大盤走勢不聞不問。情況就像營業廳裡的人潮變化一樣。
不看、不想，就能迴避買錯股票、看錯行情的挫折感，然而，這種心態也會令你喪失了調整投資組合的最佳時機，並進一步錯過了行情由空翻多的最佳布局機會。反過來說，若要在股災後段掌握反敗為勝的關鍵，第一要件就是克服鴕鳥心態的人性心理，就像蘇紀五先生一樣。
曾在上市公司與國際知名科技企業擔任行銷主管的蘇紀五，退休五年，如今是專業的股票投資人。談起股票投資，他說：「股票玩了三十幾年，沒有受過重傷，直到去年，差點晚節不保。」
「去年八月，我挑了一檔本益比偏低的電子股所羅門。」因為本益比低，所以即使股價一路下跌，他也不以為意，後來才發現，原來所羅門的低本益比是來自於業外收益，而非本業。恍然大悟時，所羅門股價已經腰斬，這是蘇紀五數十年來第一次嘗到重傷的感覺。
但相較於一般散戶在重傷之後選擇退出市場，蘇紀五的作法恰恰相反，「要認輸，但也要想辦法贏回來啊！」細細思考後，他在筆記本上寫下三個觀察重點：政府發布利多政策、成交量急縮、融資斷頭令萬箭齊發。「我告訴自己，當這三個現象都出現時，就是進場時機。」
此外，蘇紀五因看好兩岸政策開放行情，寫下了幾檔開放概念股的候選名單：味全、台肥、中華電、國泰金、鳳凰。
雖然不再進出，但蘇紀五卻仍隨時關心台股籌碼面與消息面的變化。去年十二月中旬，大盤一度連續急跌，融資斷頭殺出後，成交量快速萎縮至千億元以下，市場氣氛冷到冰點，而也就在當月下旬期間，陸委會主委陳明通表示，擬開放大陸客來台貸款購置房地產.
■教訓一：克己／克服人性，從確定投資理由開始
「進場的訊號出現了，我開始買進預設的股票。」各檔股票表現都能符合預期，而鳳凰的股價表現則是超出預期，「大概五十元買的，漲到八十幾元，獲利出場。」
「其實，投資的真理就是這麼簡單。」李挺生十分認同蘇紀五的作法，他強調，買股票，最重要的是找到投資的理由，這個理由包括了大方向的判斷，選股的邏輯，還有個股投資價值的分析。「如果寫不出具體的理由，只是沒有依據地認為會漲，那麼，就是在猜測，就會隨便買，開始走入投資失敗的道路。」
就像前面說的，錯誤的根源就在於過度自信心態之下的隨便買，一方面讓自己陷入持股過多的風險，同時也沒有足可憑藉的後續操作依據，進出動作只能憑感覺。這時，人性心理的弱點就會趁虛而入，讓你出盈保虧，滿手套牢股票，甚至引導你一路向下攤平，陷入慘賠深淵，到最後，讓你失去面對大盤的勇氣，也錯失了反敗為勝的契機。
這是一條由人性心理法則鋪成的投資流程，也是一條輸家之路。
那麼，贏家之路是什麼？「克服人性。而克服人性的首要條件，就是讓自己的投資理由具體化。」李挺生建議，投資之前一定要找到買股票的理由，分析它的風險點，然後別的不管，消息不必多聽，只要緊緊追蹤這些理由和風險點是否出現，以此作為買進和賣出的依據。
■教訓二：堅持／始終如一，執行自己的邏輯
李挺生強調，他看過各種股市獲利術，共通點就是「堅持自己的理由」，看線型買進，就不管消息面和基本面，只看線型決定是否賣出，看指數買的就要看指數賣、看業績買的就要看業績賣。
相對的，賠錢的投資人往往也有一個共通點：「他們總會忘記買進的理由，於是，理由已經不存在了，也還續抱不賣；要不然，理由明明還在，卻又聽到一些消息就急著賣。」他比喻：「你聽了呂宗耀的選股邏輯而進場，但又聽到葛林史班唱衰全球經濟而急著賣出。兩個人的說法都有理，但你的操作卻是大錯特錯，呂宗耀研究個股基本面，葛林史班是看全球總體經濟，出發點不同啊！」
獲選美國《商業周刊》最佳商業書籍的《魔球投資學》作者麥可．莫布新對投資人的建議，則比李挺生更加具象化，「每天都拿一張白紙，寫下你對手中持股的價位預期和停損點，以此作進出參考。」
郭敏華的建議則是融合前面二者。她認為，投資人必須先思考自己的投資風格，以此確定自己適合的選股邏輯和操作原則；再拿出白紙，寫下你的投資理由、最擔心的風險、股價停損點等等。每當你想賣掉賺錢股票時，就看看買進的理由是否變化；要續抱或攤平套牢股票時，也拿出紙來，看看還有沒有續抱的理由。
「只要是人，就有人性，當你克服人性心理的弱點之後，才能走向贏家之路。」郭敏華說。
■轉折／漲熱絡、跌冷清的人性廳堂
營業廳的場景彷彿就是股市眾生的一方縮影。行情走空，營業廳裡的人都不見了，不聽股價不看走勢，不願接受精神折磨；若是一旦行情轉強，人們就忽然顯得精神奕奕、自信滿滿。這或許是人之常情的心理反應，然而，在行為財務學專家的眼裡，這些人之常情的心理反應，卻是造成多數人陷入投資失敗命運的惡性基因。
「心理狀態影響投資行為，投資失敗的原因，九○％以上是來自於『人之常情』的心理！」世新大學財金系副教授，也是國內行為財務學的權威學者郭敏華說。
然而，郭敏華也提醒投資人，與其急躁入市，不如先回頭想想過去半年來股災期間的操作策略與投資行為，「從頭到尾仔仔細細地想過一輪，揪出那個曾經讓你遭受股災重擊的心理問題，這個過程，對於你的投資功力將有極大幫助。」
如果你已走出股災，恭喜你！如果你正打算重回股市，可以，時機不差，但也請你學會股災期間所給你的一堂課，這堂課的重點非關行情判斷的正確或失誤，而是關於所有投資行為的基本核心—— 投資心理學。或許不能讓你買到飆股短期致富，但絕對是在投資長路上能夠助你趨吉避凶的必修學分。
■心魔一：驕傲／對自己判斷太自信，導致隨便投資
「一定要從股災之前開始回想嗎？」廖太太怯怯地問，因為她簡直不敢多想，半年前，她的手上還有千萬元以上現金。
說起廖太太的股海浮沉，真可用大起大落來形容。她曾經把老公留下來的兩千萬元退休老本，玩到只剩兩百多萬元。「後來遇到一位中實戶，才又賺回一千多萬元。可惜，這位中實戶在去年八月說他不玩了。」
沒有達人老師帶進帶出，廖太太卻也閒不下來，「過去一年多來的經驗告訴我，買股票賺錢是很容易的事啊！」她要自己找明牌，每天一回到家就打開電視，轉到八十台以後的投顧老師節目，「每台都看，覺得這樣才能一網打盡『有人在顧』的股票。」聽一檔、買一檔，雖然也有少數個股小賺出場，但多數持股卻是嚴重套牢，半年下來賠掉八百多萬元。
股市名家李挺生分析，廖太太的第一個問題，也是多數投資大眾的通病，「隨便買，這是一切錯誤的開始。」他表示，隨便買的情況有兩種：一種是人云亦云，聽到明牌就搶進；另一種是衝動行事，看到指數上漲，就急著隨手挑一檔股票一賭運氣。無論是哪一種，都是在你不熟悉這檔股票的情況之下買進的。
因為不熟悉，所以不知道這檔股票接下來的漲或跌究竟是否合理：跌下來是市場錯殺嗎？漲上去是反映基本面或者純屬運氣？無從判斷，於是也就無法掌握停利或停損的適當時機，「簡單地說，當你隨便買之後，對於出場時機的掌握，就只能憑感覺、用猜的。」
李挺生口中的隨便買，其實頗為貼近投資心理學所討論的「過度自信」效應。美國著名財經學家，同時也是《投資心理學》一書的作者約翰．納夫辛格就表示：「人們總會有一種幻覺，認為自己所買的股票一定會強過其他股票。於是造成過度投資，或者過度承擔風險的結果。」
過度自信的心態屬於人之常情。換言之，多數人恐怕都有這樣的問題：容易相信自己的預測，然後，隨便買。
■心魔二：不服輸／害怕認輸的心態，造成出盈保虧
不幸的，李挺生說中了廖太太的命運。由於無法掌握適當的出場策略，只能憑感覺操作，因此她又一步步地踏進了第二個人性陷阱。
「一個月前，我終於沒錢再買股票了，想說賣出一點套牢的股票換現金，把記載股票交易的小本子拿出來，算了一下，這才發現手中的套牢股票，竟然多達五十檔。」五十檔套牢股票？她說，當時一度懷疑自己有沒有看錯。
郭敏華解讀，廖太太的第二個錯誤是「出盈保虧」，把小賺的股票都賣掉，而不願處理已經套牢的部位；漸漸的，滿手套牢，心理壓力愈來愈大，也愈來愈不可能理性因應盤勢變化。
「這種行為的背後隱藏著一個基本人性，人都喜歡追求自尊，討厭承認失敗，賣掉小賺股票實現獲利，能讓人感到快慰；而賣掉賠錢的股票等於承認自己投資失敗，基於人性，多數人會盡量避免。」郭敏華強調，這就是投資心理學所謂的「處分效應」。
根據世新大學針對國內股市投資人的一項調查，大約有五六％的投資人在決定賣出持股時，會優先考慮賣掉賺錢的股票。而在世新大學的另一個調查當中則指出，投資人若回頭自我檢討投資失敗的主要原因，有四五％的受訪者承認，是因為沒有做好停損動作。兩項數據說明，出盈保虧的處分效應是常見的人性心理，同時，也是投資績效的恐怖殺手。
出盈保虧是錯誤的選擇，但是更致命的重傷害，來自於「攤平」的心態。
陳媽媽是一位針灸師，在台北市萬華地區開業多年，如果是在平日上午掛號的客人，大概都知道診間的電視永遠鎖定股市頻道。「有些客人看我在玩股票，就開始報明牌。其中一位客人總是很準，應該說，過去都很準。」
去年年初開始，陳媽媽跟著客人的明牌買股票，嘗到不少甜頭，「就那一次，他叫我買一檔叫作原相的股票，還說是最後上車機會，股價將會飆漲。」她清楚記得，那一天是七月十日，原相股價的最高點，「我插完針就立刻打電話下單，買了兩張，買在五六五元。」
■心魔三：活在過去／考慮過去的成本，才會選擇攤平
隔日，原相股價向下急跌，陳媽媽沒有多想，決定再加碼兩張，「好像被催眠一樣，沒有想到會跌，只想到這樣可以降低成本，一旦飆漲，回本的速度更快。」她說出她的加碼邏輯，依循這個邏輯，原相一路下跌，她則一路攤平，不到兩周時間，手中已有二十張原相持股，平均成本五一○元。
結果，原相股價最低跌到一四○元左右。一月下旬，陳媽媽終於受不了資金壓力，而開始陸續停損出場。「每張大約賠掉三十五萬元，二十張，總共差不多賠了七百萬元。可惡的是，那個報牌的傢伙再也沒有來過了。」她憤憤地說。
世新大學做過這樣一個問卷調查：若你決定買進一檔個股，但在下單之前忽然看到這檔個股的負面消息，你會怎麼做？約有四九％的受訪者表示會暫緩下單。不過，如果是在「已經買進」這檔個股之後才看到負面消息，超過九成的受訪者卻都表示不會將持股賣出。
只因為「已經買進」，持股意願就立刻提高，這就是投資心理學中所謂的「沉沒成本效應」：當下的決策判斷，會受到已經付出的成本所影響。
這種心態反映在投資行為上，最明顯的就是攤平。郭敏華認為，賠錢的股票並非不能加碼買進，但買進的理由必須是「現在這個價位更值得買」，而不是「這樣一來，我的成本就降低許多」。這是兩種思考邏輯，一種是分析未來，一種是受困於過去。「走出過去的框框，才能看到新的可能。」郭敏華說。
■心魔四：鴕鳥／不能正視危機，讓你錯失反攻良機
若能擺脫股災期間的陰影，關注未來，那麼，在二月以來的台股強勢反彈當中，投資人不難獲得可觀利潤。
可惜，從融資餘額的變化狀況來看，多數散戶似乎沒有抓準這一波的台幣升值行情。根據交易所資料，一月底，台股融資餘額約在三○一三億元；至二月十九日大盤已經明確展開反彈行情時，融資餘額反倒降低至二九六六億元，顯然散戶未在低檔掌握最佳布局時機。
散戶為何總是慢半拍？美國知名的行為經濟學家喬治．魯文斯坦研究發現，「鴕鳥效應」或許就是其中解答。
所謂鴕鳥效應，意指投資人在行情好的時候，會經常檢視自己的報酬率和投資組合；但當行情走跌時，多數人就對報酬率和手中股價、大盤走勢不聞不問。情況就像營業廳裡的人潮變化一樣。
不看、不想，就能迴避買錯股票、看錯行情的挫折感，然而，這種心態也會令你喪失了調整投資組合的最佳時機，並進一步錯過了行情由空翻多的最佳布局機會。反過來說，若要在股災後段掌握反敗為勝的關鍵，第一要件就是克服鴕鳥心態的人性心理，就像蘇紀五先生一樣。
曾在上市公司與國際知名科技企業擔任行銷主管的蘇紀五，退休五年，如今是專業的股票投資人。談起股票投資，他說：「股票玩了三十幾年，沒有受過重傷，直到去年，差點晚節不保。」
「去年八月，我挑了一檔本益比偏低的電子股所羅門。」因為本益比低，所以即使股價一路下跌，他也不以為意，後來才發現，原來所羅門的低本益比是來自於業外收益，而非本業。恍然大悟時，所羅門股價已經腰斬，這是蘇紀五數十年來第一次嘗到重傷的感覺。
但相較於一般散戶在重傷之後選擇退出市場，蘇紀五的作法恰恰相反，「要認輸，但也要想辦法贏回來啊！」細細思考後，他在筆記本上寫下三個觀察重點：政府發布利多政策、成交量急縮、融資斷頭令萬箭齊發。「我告訴自己，當這三個現象都出現時，就是進場時機。」
此外，蘇紀五因看好兩岸政策開放行情，寫下了幾檔開放概念股的候選名單：味全、台肥、中華電、國泰金、鳳凰。
雖然不再進出，但蘇紀五卻仍隨時關心台股籌碼面與消息面的變化。去年十二月中旬，大盤一度連續急跌，融資斷頭殺出後，成交量快速萎縮至千億元以下，市場氣氛冷到冰點，而也就在當月下旬期間，陸委會主委陳明通表示，擬開放大陸客來台貸款購置房地產.
■教訓一：克己／克服人性，從確定投資理由開始
「進場的訊號出現了，我開始買進預設的股票。」各檔股票表現都能符合預期，而鳳凰的股價表現則是超出預期，「大概五十元買的，漲到八十幾元，獲利出場。」
「其實，投資的真理就是這麼簡單。」李挺生十分認同蘇紀五的作法，他強調，買股票，最重要的是找到投資的理由，這個理由包括了大方向的判斷，選股的邏輯，還有個股投資價值的分析。「如果寫不出具體的理由，只是沒有依據地認為會漲，那麼，就是在猜測，就會隨便買，開始走入投資失敗的道路。」
就像前面說的，錯誤的根源就在於過度自信心態之下的隨便買，一方面讓自己陷入持股過多的風險，同時也沒有足可憑藉的後續操作依據，進出動作只能憑感覺。這時，人性心理的弱點就會趁虛而入，讓你出盈保虧，滿手套牢股票，甚至引導你一路向下攤平，陷入慘賠深淵，到最後，讓你失去面對大盤的勇氣，也錯失了反敗為勝的契機。
這是一條由人性心理法則鋪成的投資流程，也是一條輸家之路。
那麼，贏家之路是什麼？「克服人性。而克服人性的首要條件，就是讓自己的投資理由具體化。」李挺生建議，投資之前一定要找到買股票的理由，分析它的風險點，然後別的不管，消息不必多聽，只要緊緊追蹤這些理由和風險點是否出現，以此作為買進和賣出的依據。
■教訓二：堅持／始終如一，執行自己的邏輯
李挺生強調，他看過各種股市獲利術，共通點就是「堅持自己的理由」，看線型買進，就不管消息面和基本面，只看線型決定是否賣出，看指數買的就要看指數賣、看業績買的就要看業績賣。
相對的，賠錢的投資人往往也有一個共通點：「他們總會忘記買進的理由，於是，理由已經不存在了，也還續抱不賣；要不然，理由明明還在，卻又聽到一些消息就急著賣。」他比喻：「你聽了呂宗耀的選股邏輯而進場，但又聽到葛林史班唱衰全球經濟而急著賣出。兩個人的說法都有理，但你的操作卻是大錯特錯，呂宗耀研究個股基本面，葛林史班是看全球總體經濟，出發點不同啊！」
獲選美國《商業周刊》最佳商業書籍的《魔球投資學》作者麥可．莫布新對投資人的建議，則比李挺生更加具象化，「每天都拿一張白紙，寫下你對手中持股的價位預期和停損點，以此作進出參考。」
郭敏華的建議則是融合前面二者。她認為，投資人必須先思考自己的投資風格，以此確定自己適合的選股邏輯和操作原則；再拿出白紙，寫下你的投資理由、最擔心的風險、股價停損點等等。每當你想賣掉賺錢股票時，就看看買進的理由是否變化；要續抱或攤平套牢股票時，也拿出紙來，看看還有沒有續抱的理由。
「只要是人，就有人性，當你克服人性心理的弱點之後，才能走向贏家之路。」郭敏華說。
Why momentum investing is risky during earnings season
MOMENTUM investing - a bet that what has gone up will keep going up - is risky at any time. But it is especially so during earnings season, when stocks often move up and down very abruptly; in fact, the top-performing stocks are particularly vulnerable during these periods.
And a new study has found that these high-fliers tend to fall immediately after their companies announce their earnings - whether those earnings are good or bad.
The study, 'Limited Attention and the Earnings Announcement Returns of Past Stock Market Winners,' has been circulating for several months in academic circles as a working paper. Its authors are David Aboody and Brett Trueman, both professors of accounting at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Reuven Lehavy, a professor of accounting at the University of Michigan.
Their findings serve as a warning about the risks of buying stocks whose prices have been pushed unjustifiably high by mass enthusiasm.
The professors looked at stocks that had been the very best performers over 12-month periods. Such stocks - those whose trailing 12-month returns were in the top one per cent of stocks traded on American exchanges - tend to rise quite predictably in the days leading up to their companies' earnings announcements - and then to abruptly give up all of those gains. The professors reached this conclusion after studying each earnings season from January 1971 through September 2005.
The patterns they found were quite pronounced. Consider two hypothetical portfolios that the professors built from this group of stocks.
The first bought each stock five business days before its earnings were to be announced, and sold each one just before the actual announcement.
The second portfolio bought each stock immediately after the earnings announcement and held the stock for five business days.
The first portfolio beat the market by an annualised rate of 47 percentage points, according to the professors, while the second lagged the market by an annualised rate of 43 percentage points.
(These rates of return reflect the effect of bid-asked spreads. Though they don't take brokerage commissions into effect, the professors say the portfolios would still beat or lag the market by large margins even after such costs.)
The professors did not find nearly as pronounced a run-up and drop-back among stocks whose 12-month performance was only slightly behind that of the stocks that led the momentum hit parade. Why was this pattern concentrated among such a small group of top performers?
The professors surmise that this is the answer: As earnings season begins, these stocks receive a disproportionate share of attention from small investors, no doubt largely because they are at the top of the leader board for 12-month returns.
This appears to lead many of those investors into bidding these stocks even higher, to levels that may be unsustainable.
The stocks decline when reality sets in - after the excitement of a positive earnings report ebbs, or, more sharply, after an earnings report disappoints the market.
These results would seem to illustrate a hazard of momentum investing - that it works only as long as it works. When momentum reverses itself, a stock may plummet.
It's theoretically possible that after dropping back in the wake of earnings announcements, this group of stocks will recover over the following few months, Prof Trueman said in an interview.
But he said that this study didn't investigate possible recovery trends, so investors would be going out on a limb in betting on one.
Another option for momentum traders would be to avoid altogether the stocks at the top one per cent of the rankings, betting instead on those that have performed just slightly behind those leaders - and thus were less likely to be magnets for some small investors.
As a result, Prof Trueman said, their prices will be less likely to be thrown out of whack.
Over all, though, the study suggests just how risky momentum strategies can be. Stocks that rise sharply may fall in just a few days' time. And they most definitely are not for the weak of heart.
And a new study has found that these high-fliers tend to fall immediately after their companies announce their earnings - whether those earnings are good or bad.
The study, 'Limited Attention and the Earnings Announcement Returns of Past Stock Market Winners,' has been circulating for several months in academic circles as a working paper. Its authors are David Aboody and Brett Trueman, both professors of accounting at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Reuven Lehavy, a professor of accounting at the University of Michigan.
Their findings serve as a warning about the risks of buying stocks whose prices have been pushed unjustifiably high by mass enthusiasm.
The professors looked at stocks that had been the very best performers over 12-month periods. Such stocks - those whose trailing 12-month returns were in the top one per cent of stocks traded on American exchanges - tend to rise quite predictably in the days leading up to their companies' earnings announcements - and then to abruptly give up all of those gains. The professors reached this conclusion after studying each earnings season from January 1971 through September 2005.
The patterns they found were quite pronounced. Consider two hypothetical portfolios that the professors built from this group of stocks.
The first bought each stock five business days before its earnings were to be announced, and sold each one just before the actual announcement.
The second portfolio bought each stock immediately after the earnings announcement and held the stock for five business days.
The first portfolio beat the market by an annualised rate of 47 percentage points, according to the professors, while the second lagged the market by an annualised rate of 43 percentage points.
(These rates of return reflect the effect of bid-asked spreads. Though they don't take brokerage commissions into effect, the professors say the portfolios would still beat or lag the market by large margins even after such costs.)
The professors did not find nearly as pronounced a run-up and drop-back among stocks whose 12-month performance was only slightly behind that of the stocks that led the momentum hit parade. Why was this pattern concentrated among such a small group of top performers?
The professors surmise that this is the answer: As earnings season begins, these stocks receive a disproportionate share of attention from small investors, no doubt largely because they are at the top of the leader board for 12-month returns.
This appears to lead many of those investors into bidding these stocks even higher, to levels that may be unsustainable.
The stocks decline when reality sets in - after the excitement of a positive earnings report ebbs, or, more sharply, after an earnings report disappoints the market.
These results would seem to illustrate a hazard of momentum investing - that it works only as long as it works. When momentum reverses itself, a stock may plummet.
It's theoretically possible that after dropping back in the wake of earnings announcements, this group of stocks will recover over the following few months, Prof Trueman said in an interview.
But he said that this study didn't investigate possible recovery trends, so investors would be going out on a limb in betting on one.
Another option for momentum traders would be to avoid altogether the stocks at the top one per cent of the rankings, betting instead on those that have performed just slightly behind those leaders - and thus were less likely to be magnets for some small investors.
As a result, Prof Trueman said, their prices will be less likely to be thrown out of whack.
Over all, though, the study suggests just how risky momentum strategies can be. Stocks that rise sharply may fall in just a few days' time. And they most definitely are not for the weak of heart.
Staying invested through the cycles
Q: When did you begin investing? Was there a trigger factor that made you start?
A: I began investing while at university, pre-1987, so the 1987 crash was my first experience with a bear market. I got together with a group of friends who had a common interest in stocks and shares. It was more of a hobby at that stage.
Q: Do you have a target? And does this target move with changes in your circumstances?
A: There is no target per se in terms of a sum of money. I am working towards an active 'retirement'. But what's really important for me is to ensure that I provide the right educational opportunities for my family, which will certainly involve my children being educated at international universities. I believe the experience will broaden their horizons in a rapidly globalised world.
'It's "time in the market" and not "market-timing" that creates long-term value ... I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more
of a marathon than a series of sprints.'
-Peter Flavel
Q: What investments do you have? Do you believe strongly in certain types of assets, like property or stocks, and so plan your investments accordingly?
A: I have about 70 per cent of my savings invested in a core portfolio with a balanced growth strategy. The balance is in a 'satellite' portfolio. For the core portfolio, I use a multi-manager approach and it rebalances quarterly to a pre-determined strategic asset allocation.
I am not averse to taking more risk in the satellite portfolio, so I invest in individual stocks and funds. I'm a firm believer in the long-term growth prospects of India and China, for instance. But care is needed as some assets have got ahead of themselves in valuation.
Q: Do you see yourself retiring in Australia and do you have property there for when you go back?
A: Like a lot of Australians, I tend to have a love affair with property. I had invested in some properties at an opportune time, and these include properties in Queensland, Melbourne and Bali. So I will spend some retirement time there, but I also expect to be spending time in the rest of the world, like Asia. I have been based in Asia for more than five years now, and can see myself spending some of my retirement here.
Q: You have young children. Does your investment plan include providing for them until a certain age before you tell them they're on their own?
A: Between my wife Theresa and I, we have five children. My investment plans include providing each of them with the right educational opportunities, right up to tertiary level, if they earn the right to be accepted into international institutions. I am a strong believer in instilling independence, yet doing enough to help them stand on their own feet, but they must create their own wealth opportunities.
I grew up in a family that ran hotels and farms, and my parents worked extremely hard, imparting strong values. Through that I have learned not to take things for granted, and that living with comforts comes about not by chance but through hard work.
Q: Do you believe in leaving money/property for your children?
A: What I believe in is to teach them the importance of education and making a career, and creating their own wealth, so they can be independent and financially secure. I think it's far more important to help them hone their fishing skills than to reel in the catch for them.
Q: Does your wife make her own investment decisions or do you consult each other?
A: It's a partnership. We consult each other on investment decisions.
Q: What kind of retirement do you envisage? Do you have a date for retiring?
A: I have difficulty envisaging myself enjoying a traditional retirement - that is, sitting back and not doing anything. What I probably will do is to continue to work for as long as I can, and ease into retirement. I will probably have a semi-retirement and work part-time. Life is meant to be enjoyed, but having an active mind and interests will continue for some time in my case.
Q: What has been your best investment?
A: I would say my decision to stay invested in the equities market through the various cycles. It's 'time in the market' and not 'market-timing' that creates long-term value.
My exposure in Standard Chartered shares has also been a good investment - I have seen it rising in the past five years.
Q: And the worst?
A: I had a residential property in Melbourne during the late 1980s as an investment when the market went sideways for several years. I eventually sold it but I had to hold the property for a longer time than anticipated.
Q: If one of your investments goes sour, do you curse and swear and ruthlessly cut losses, or go into a depression? Or do you see it as part of taking risks, and go on to something else?
A: I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more of a marathon than a series of sprints.
Q: What do you spend most money on?
A: A fair proportion goes to investing in the future. I'm pretty much a saver.
Q: What do you splurge on?
A: While not in the splurge category, when we do go on holidays we like to travel to some places. The family likes Bali, India, though generally all through Asia as well as a special favourite - Sunshine Beach in Australia, near Noosa.
A: I began investing while at university, pre-1987, so the 1987 crash was my first experience with a bear market. I got together with a group of friends who had a common interest in stocks and shares. It was more of a hobby at that stage.
Q: Do you have a target? And does this target move with changes in your circumstances?
A: There is no target per se in terms of a sum of money. I am working towards an active 'retirement'. But what's really important for me is to ensure that I provide the right educational opportunities for my family, which will certainly involve my children being educated at international universities. I believe the experience will broaden their horizons in a rapidly globalised world.
'It's "time in the market" and not "market-timing" that creates long-term value ... I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more
of a marathon than a series of sprints.'
-Peter Flavel
Q: What investments do you have? Do you believe strongly in certain types of assets, like property or stocks, and so plan your investments accordingly?
A: I have about 70 per cent of my savings invested in a core portfolio with a balanced growth strategy. The balance is in a 'satellite' portfolio. For the core portfolio, I use a multi-manager approach and it rebalances quarterly to a pre-determined strategic asset allocation.
I am not averse to taking more risk in the satellite portfolio, so I invest in individual stocks and funds. I'm a firm believer in the long-term growth prospects of India and China, for instance. But care is needed as some assets have got ahead of themselves in valuation.
Q: Do you see yourself retiring in Australia and do you have property there for when you go back?
A: Like a lot of Australians, I tend to have a love affair with property. I had invested in some properties at an opportune time, and these include properties in Queensland, Melbourne and Bali. So I will spend some retirement time there, but I also expect to be spending time in the rest of the world, like Asia. I have been based in Asia for more than five years now, and can see myself spending some of my retirement here.
Q: You have young children. Does your investment plan include providing for them until a certain age before you tell them they're on their own?
A: Between my wife Theresa and I, we have five children. My investment plans include providing each of them with the right educational opportunities, right up to tertiary level, if they earn the right to be accepted into international institutions. I am a strong believer in instilling independence, yet doing enough to help them stand on their own feet, but they must create their own wealth opportunities.
I grew up in a family that ran hotels and farms, and my parents worked extremely hard, imparting strong values. Through that I have learned not to take things for granted, and that living with comforts comes about not by chance but through hard work.
Q: Do you believe in leaving money/property for your children?
A: What I believe in is to teach them the importance of education and making a career, and creating their own wealth, so they can be independent and financially secure. I think it's far more important to help them hone their fishing skills than to reel in the catch for them.
Q: Does your wife make her own investment decisions or do you consult each other?
A: It's a partnership. We consult each other on investment decisions.
Q: What kind of retirement do you envisage? Do you have a date for retiring?
A: I have difficulty envisaging myself enjoying a traditional retirement - that is, sitting back and not doing anything. What I probably will do is to continue to work for as long as I can, and ease into retirement. I will probably have a semi-retirement and work part-time. Life is meant to be enjoyed, but having an active mind and interests will continue for some time in my case.
Q: What has been your best investment?
A: I would say my decision to stay invested in the equities market through the various cycles. It's 'time in the market' and not 'market-timing' that creates long-term value.
My exposure in Standard Chartered shares has also been a good investment - I have seen it rising in the past five years.
Q: And the worst?
A: I had a residential property in Melbourne during the late 1980s as an investment when the market went sideways for several years. I eventually sold it but I had to hold the property for a longer time than anticipated.
Q: If one of your investments goes sour, do you curse and swear and ruthlessly cut losses, or go into a depression? Or do you see it as part of taking risks, and go on to something else?
A: I am a strong believer in investing through the cycles, and any investment decisions made have to be for the long-term. Investing is more of a marathon than a series of sprints.
Q: What do you spend most money on?
A: A fair proportion goes to investing in the future. I'm pretty much a saver.
Q: What do you splurge on?
A: While not in the splurge category, when we do go on holidays we like to travel to some places. The family likes Bali, India, though generally all through Asia as well as a special favourite - Sunshine Beach in Australia, near Noosa.
Inflation's not going to whittle away my kid's future
Having lived in Brazil where annual inflation rates went through the roof, reaching 450 per cent in the 1980s, Mrs Alania Hsu Concepcion knows better than to leave out the impact of inflation when calculating the returns on her investments.
'Living in Latin America gave me a new appreciation of the concept of inflation and how most investors don't really consider how much of a threat it can be,' she noted.
'Inflation has the power to wipe out decent nominal returns and leave very little real return or future purchasing power. In Brazil, you don't look at any rate of return without accounting for inflation.'
As a result, Mrs Concepcion, 33, factors a 5 per cent to 6 per cent inflation rate into her personal investment assumptions.
An American who has been a Singapore permanent resident since 2004, she joined Barclays Bank in December last year as an associate director at its investor solutions desk.
In the past five years, she has lived in Sao Paulo, Beijing and Singapore.
She started actively investing about seven years ago. Although she has a private banker who helps her manage her finances, she calls the shots as to what to invest in.
After all, she works in the financial markets, which keeps her on top of what's going on.
She holds an MBA from the University of Sao Paulo and is also a certified financial analyst.
She is married to Mr Cesar Concepcion, 43, a country manager in China for pharmaceutical firm Novartis Oncology. They have a two-year-old daughter, Mia.
Before joining Barclays, Mrs Concepcion worked in Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and ABN Amro Bank.
Q: What are your money habits?
I have no debt besides mortgages, and I manage my savings and investments wisely. I am neither frugal nor lavish. I live comfortably but not excessively.
Most of the time, I buy the things I do because I like them or I need them. It's not a matter of how expensive or inexpensive they are.
I contribute whenever I can to my family and to people who need it, old and young, and organisations serving good causes.
Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?
Besides property, I have a few investment accounts, consisting mainly of mutual funds, stocks and bonds, commodities and some cash instruments.
I have a Central Provident Fund (CPF) account in Singapore that I'm planning to do more with through the CPF Investment Scheme.
My husband has a 401k plan - an employer-sponsored retirement plan common in the United States - and contributes to social security there.
We aim for a total return on our investments of 10 per cent to 12 per cent a year, and so far, we have exceeded these targets almost every year because of the diversification of our total holdings.
I'm also starting to put a portion of my portfolio into commodity funds, especially agricultural ones, to hedge against the increased cost of living as food prices rise around the world.
I think the world is entering a higher inflationary period, and we need to protect the real value of our assets.
I prefer to invest in actual agricultural commodities rather than resource stocks such as oil or gas because they participate fully in the rise in commodity prices, whereas resource stocks are prey to stock- market sentiment and company-specific risks.
I'm also a fan of emerging markets, but with these funds, I think it's especially important to focus on diversification. For instance, I would pick a global emerging markets fund rather than a single play on China. Market timing is also crucial.
We aim to generate a target sum of US$300,000 (S$411,300) through a tax-efficient college savings fund for our two-year-old daughter by the time she turns 18. We contribute on a monthly basis to this fund.
Q: What about insurance planning?
Both my husband and I have life insurance, disability insurance and health insurance through our employers, although, to be honest, it isn't enough. We plan to take out additional life insurance, as well as critical illness insurance.
Now that we have a daughter, I think it's important to be prepared in the event of an unforeseen emergency.
Q: What's your investment philosophy?
Diversify, diversify, diversify. I don't believe in putting all my eggs in one basket.
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.
We buy real estate, so that we will have rental income to supplement our living expenses when we retire.
Rental income does rise with inflation and, therefore, provides a good hedge.
Q: What are your property investments?
My husband and I own a five-bedroom country home that sits on 2ha of land on the eastern seaboard of Virginia in the US, and a two-bedroom colonial beach apartment in Puerto Rico.
We are in the midst of buying a three-bedroom apartment in New York City as an investment property.
Now is a good time to buy US properties, as interest rates are low and mortgage rates are favourable.
I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.
Q: Money-wise, what were your growing-up years like?
My father is a mathematician, and my mother is a linguist who worked for the United Nations and is now with the World Health Organisation. They have four children.
My father used to give me a monthly allowance of about US$25 when I was young. I had to put 20 per cent of that in my bank account.
When I think of how I went to the bank every month at the age of 10 to deposit US$5, I have to laugh, but it was a principle that worked.
I have a brother who is also in the finance sector. These days, he runs his own hedge fund.
I think my family background has made me appreciate the value of a dollar, and has motivated me to invest wisely and plan for the future using both property and the financial markets.
Q: What has been a bad investment?
Keeping all of my investments and properties in US dollars. The greenback has depreciated and lost roughly 30 per cent over the past five years.
Q: Your best investment to date? Hard to say. Our properties have done well. I have a Brazil fund that has given stellar yields of more than 30 per cent annually since 2004.
Commodities have performed superbly over the past few months and should continue to do so.
I also have a few bond funds that have outperformed most of my equity funds, and my inflation-linked securities have outperformed other liquid instruments such as treasury bonds and long- term certificates of deposit.
Q: What's your retirement plan?
Work hard until I'm 50, invest our money wisely in the markets, contribute diligently to our retirement accounts, flip a few properties and pay off our mortgages, and then retire to our homes in the US.
Q: And your home now is...?
A three-bedroom condo in the Holland area.
Q: And your car is...?
I prefer the convenience of a taxi. I don't believe in buying expensive cars as they are depreciating assets.
Buy when market is on the uptrend
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on the need to spread out one's investments
Timing is everything when buying property
' I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on property purchases
'Living in Latin America gave me a new appreciation of the concept of inflation and how most investors don't really consider how much of a threat it can be,' she noted.
'Inflation has the power to wipe out decent nominal returns and leave very little real return or future purchasing power. In Brazil, you don't look at any rate of return without accounting for inflation.'
As a result, Mrs Concepcion, 33, factors a 5 per cent to 6 per cent inflation rate into her personal investment assumptions.
An American who has been a Singapore permanent resident since 2004, she joined Barclays Bank in December last year as an associate director at its investor solutions desk.
In the past five years, she has lived in Sao Paulo, Beijing and Singapore.
She started actively investing about seven years ago. Although she has a private banker who helps her manage her finances, she calls the shots as to what to invest in.
After all, she works in the financial markets, which keeps her on top of what's going on.
She holds an MBA from the University of Sao Paulo and is also a certified financial analyst.
She is married to Mr Cesar Concepcion, 43, a country manager in China for pharmaceutical firm Novartis Oncology. They have a two-year-old daughter, Mia.
Before joining Barclays, Mrs Concepcion worked in Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and ABN Amro Bank.
Q: What are your money habits?
I have no debt besides mortgages, and I manage my savings and investments wisely. I am neither frugal nor lavish. I live comfortably but not excessively.
Most of the time, I buy the things I do because I like them or I need them. It's not a matter of how expensive or inexpensive they are.
I contribute whenever I can to my family and to people who need it, old and young, and organisations serving good causes.
Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?
Besides property, I have a few investment accounts, consisting mainly of mutual funds, stocks and bonds, commodities and some cash instruments.
I have a Central Provident Fund (CPF) account in Singapore that I'm planning to do more with through the CPF Investment Scheme.
My husband has a 401k plan - an employer-sponsored retirement plan common in the United States - and contributes to social security there.
We aim for a total return on our investments of 10 per cent to 12 per cent a year, and so far, we have exceeded these targets almost every year because of the diversification of our total holdings.
I'm also starting to put a portion of my portfolio into commodity funds, especially agricultural ones, to hedge against the increased cost of living as food prices rise around the world.
I think the world is entering a higher inflationary period, and we need to protect the real value of our assets.
I prefer to invest in actual agricultural commodities rather than resource stocks such as oil or gas because they participate fully in the rise in commodity prices, whereas resource stocks are prey to stock- market sentiment and company-specific risks.
I'm also a fan of emerging markets, but with these funds, I think it's especially important to focus on diversification. For instance, I would pick a global emerging markets fund rather than a single play on China. Market timing is also crucial.
We aim to generate a target sum of US$300,000 (S$411,300) through a tax-efficient college savings fund for our two-year-old daughter by the time she turns 18. We contribute on a monthly basis to this fund.
Q: What about insurance planning?
Both my husband and I have life insurance, disability insurance and health insurance through our employers, although, to be honest, it isn't enough. We plan to take out additional life insurance, as well as critical illness insurance.
Now that we have a daughter, I think it's important to be prepared in the event of an unforeseen emergency.
Q: What's your investment philosophy?
Diversify, diversify, diversify. I don't believe in putting all my eggs in one basket.
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.
We buy real estate, so that we will have rental income to supplement our living expenses when we retire.
Rental income does rise with inflation and, therefore, provides a good hedge.
Q: What are your property investments?
My husband and I own a five-bedroom country home that sits on 2ha of land on the eastern seaboard of Virginia in the US, and a two-bedroom colonial beach apartment in Puerto Rico.
We are in the midst of buying a three-bedroom apartment in New York City as an investment property.
Now is a good time to buy US properties, as interest rates are low and mortgage rates are favourable.
I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.
Q: Money-wise, what were your growing-up years like?
My father is a mathematician, and my mother is a linguist who worked for the United Nations and is now with the World Health Organisation. They have four children.
My father used to give me a monthly allowance of about US$25 when I was young. I had to put 20 per cent of that in my bank account.
When I think of how I went to the bank every month at the age of 10 to deposit US$5, I have to laugh, but it was a principle that worked.
I have a brother who is also in the finance sector. These days, he runs his own hedge fund.
I think my family background has made me appreciate the value of a dollar, and has motivated me to invest wisely and plan for the future using both property and the financial markets.
Q: What has been a bad investment?
Keeping all of my investments and properties in US dollars. The greenback has depreciated and lost roughly 30 per cent over the past five years.
Q: Your best investment to date? Hard to say. Our properties have done well. I have a Brazil fund that has given stellar yields of more than 30 per cent annually since 2004.
Commodities have performed superbly over the past few months and should continue to do so.
I also have a few bond funds that have outperformed most of my equity funds, and my inflation-linked securities have outperformed other liquid instruments such as treasury bonds and long- term certificates of deposit.
Q: What's your retirement plan?
Work hard until I'm 50, invest our money wisely in the markets, contribute diligently to our retirement accounts, flip a few properties and pay off our mortgages, and then retire to our homes in the US.
Q: And your home now is...?
A three-bedroom condo in the Holland area.
Q: And your car is...?
I prefer the convenience of a taxi. I don't believe in buying expensive cars as they are depreciating assets.
Buy when market is on the uptrend
I believe in buying things when no one else is buying, when a particular market is on the uptrend, and selling once your target return has been achieved.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on the need to spread out one's investments
Timing is everything when buying property
' I would love to buy something here, but the prices are still too high. I think the market will soften over the next two years, and we hope to get in on the next cycle.'
MRS CONCEPCION, on property purchases
末日博士的投資智慧／麥嘉華 從小細節看見大趨勢
當市場上的投資專家對未來經濟情勢眾說紛紜，我們需要傾聽不一樣的聲音。六月二十六日，末日博士麥嘉華即將來台發表演說，談論他對於下半年的全球市場展望。這位總是和市場唱反調的大師，又將提出什麼驚人之語？值得令人期待。
投資界中，總是有勇氣提出不同見解，靠著與市場反向操作賺大錢的大師級人物，大概就屬末日博士麥嘉華（Marc Faber）最為知名了。
一次又一次，在市場分析師一片看多的情況下，麥嘉華總會像個討人厭的異端分子，就這麼忽然跳了出來，堅持高唱反調。反調嚇人，更嚇人的是這些違反市場普遍共識的諸多言論，總是準確得令人背脊冒汗。
■別當「遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」
「在恐慌性殺盤時，投資人應該買進，但在一片買進熱潮中，最明智之舉就是出清持股。」這就是麥嘉華最常掛在嘴邊的名言之一，市場封為「反向操作理論」。說理論太高深，或許在麥嘉華的眼中，一切旁人視為莫測高深的預言判斷，只是來自對於眼前真實景況的合理推論。重點不是高深，而是不帶偏差、合理地觀察真實世界。
「無論經濟、政治情勢如何變化，投資人總會傾向朝著正面的說法來加以解讀。」麥嘉華曾經發表言論，把多數終日埋首於股市買賣的投資人形容為「感覺遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」。與其說他是在嘲諷多數的股票市場投資人，倒不如看成他是藉由近似嘲諷的文字，點出股票市場令人瘋狂、喪智與偏執。
對於已發生的事實，人們總會偏執主觀地過度解釋。而麥嘉華之所以異端、反向、高深，之所以是「末日博士」，只是因為單純客觀地尊重現實。
最顯而易見的例子，就是在他○一年時看好黃金市場。當時金價約在二六○美元的價位，回頭看，這則預言已讓投資人暴賺二·五倍以上。至於當年看好黃金的原始理由，說穿了，實在不太高深，不過就是兩張線圖比一比而已。
「八○年代時，黃金價格每盎斯約八百美元，剛好，當時道瓊指數差不多也在八百點。不過，○一年金價跌到每盎斯二六○美元，道瓊指數卻爬到了一萬點以上。」兩張線圖的起點一樣，後續發展卻大不相同，這引起了麥嘉華對於黃金投資機會的初步興趣。
接著，他又看到了另一個擺在眼前、卻沒有太多人願意關心的事實。「亞馬遜網路公司的市值是三百五十萬美元（於○一年時），而現在你只要有三百萬美元，就能買下全世界所有黃金礦脈公司。」二○○一年，網路泡沫吹到令人目眩，而麥嘉華的簡單計算，卻一舉點出了網路泡沫之將滅，以及黃金價值之崛起。當然，這番說法在當時並未引起投資人太多青睞.
唱衰美國 援引自機場經驗
如果隨時留心麥嘉華的各處言論，或許就能發現，其實早在去年二月間，他不但已經預測美國金融資產即將崩跌，甚至，字裡行間也已透露出美國老大地位逐漸褪色的命運。
這仍然是從一些簡單的親身經驗開始推論。
「我必須經常至美國出差，關於這點，我認為像是上天給我的一種懲罰。」他回憶起入境美國時在機場所遇到的誇張刁難，然後開始像個孩子似地直覺發想，「美國人的問題，就是太自大、太傲慢了。」接著，麥嘉華逐漸理解這個國家何以無視於不斷擴大的貿易赤字，也以此推論出美國的世界競爭力逐漸衰退、赤字恐將持續擴大的未來新局。
而這篇文章的主題之一，就白紙黑字地清楚寫著，「避開美國金融資產」。半年之後，美國次貸問題全面引爆。
斷定空頭 從網路消息推論
到了今年初，麥嘉華一不小心又看到了壞消息。不是什麼重大的經濟數據，也不是哪個金融機構虧損慘重，看到的是一則沒有引起太多注意的網路調查。「根據美國信用卡網站CreditCards.com的調查，為了支付暖氣費，多達二千七百萬名美國人必須在今年冬天借貸度日，其中還有二千萬人得使用信用卡才能繳交暖氣費用。」他以此為引，再度發表後市推論。「美國家庭的財務狀況已出現了大問題，導致零售業的股價表現不濟，因為人民支出減少，代表企業獲利也將下降，如此一來股市更會走向下跌一途。」他肯定地說。
即使不少投資機構近期陸續對美國下半年景氣發表樂觀看法，但麥嘉華仍然堅持來自於網路調查所推演的看空結論，並且轉化為實際的投資策略，「抱著現金可以賺到二％至三％的利息報酬，好像少了一點，但總比持有下跌一○％的股票來得好！」不像其他投資大師的樂觀，日前麥嘉華在接受《今周刊》專訪時，坦言「現在找不到令人興奮的投資方向」。
「不過，手中持有許多現金部位，目的也就是希望在好的時機出現時，可以即刻有資金快速進場。」操作保守不代表心態保守，末日博士麥嘉華，將會繼續冷靜看世界。
投資界中，總是有勇氣提出不同見解，靠著與市場反向操作賺大錢的大師級人物，大概就屬末日博士麥嘉華（Marc Faber）最為知名了。
一次又一次，在市場分析師一片看多的情況下，麥嘉華總會像個討人厭的異端分子，就這麼忽然跳了出來，堅持高唱反調。反調嚇人，更嚇人的是這些違反市場普遍共識的諸多言論，總是準確得令人背脊冒汗。
■別當「遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」
「在恐慌性殺盤時，投資人應該買進，但在一片買進熱潮中，最明智之舉就是出清持股。」這就是麥嘉華最常掛在嘴邊的名言之一，市場封為「反向操作理論」。說理論太高深，或許在麥嘉華的眼中，一切旁人視為莫測高深的預言判斷，只是來自對於眼前真實景況的合理推論。重點不是高深，而是不帶偏差、合理地觀察真實世界。
「無論經濟、政治情勢如何變化，投資人總會傾向朝著正面的說法來加以解讀。」麥嘉華曾經發表言論，把多數終日埋首於股市買賣的投資人形容為「感覺遲鈍的超級樂觀分子」。與其說他是在嘲諷多數的股票市場投資人，倒不如看成他是藉由近似嘲諷的文字，點出股票市場令人瘋狂、喪智與偏執。
對於已發生的事實，人們總會偏執主觀地過度解釋。而麥嘉華之所以異端、反向、高深，之所以是「末日博士」，只是因為單純客觀地尊重現實。
最顯而易見的例子，就是在他○一年時看好黃金市場。當時金價約在二六○美元的價位，回頭看，這則預言已讓投資人暴賺二·五倍以上。至於當年看好黃金的原始理由，說穿了，實在不太高深，不過就是兩張線圖比一比而已。
「八○年代時，黃金價格每盎斯約八百美元，剛好，當時道瓊指數差不多也在八百點。不過，○一年金價跌到每盎斯二六○美元，道瓊指數卻爬到了一萬點以上。」兩張線圖的起點一樣，後續發展卻大不相同，這引起了麥嘉華對於黃金投資機會的初步興趣。
接著，他又看到了另一個擺在眼前、卻沒有太多人願意關心的事實。「亞馬遜網路公司的市值是三百五十萬美元（於○一年時），而現在你只要有三百萬美元，就能買下全世界所有黃金礦脈公司。」二○○一年，網路泡沫吹到令人目眩，而麥嘉華的簡單計算，卻一舉點出了網路泡沫之將滅，以及黃金價值之崛起。當然，這番說法在當時並未引起投資人太多青睞.
唱衰美國 援引自機場經驗
如果隨時留心麥嘉華的各處言論，或許就能發現，其實早在去年二月間，他不但已經預測美國金融資產即將崩跌，甚至，字裡行間也已透露出美國老大地位逐漸褪色的命運。
這仍然是從一些簡單的親身經驗開始推論。
「我必須經常至美國出差，關於這點，我認為像是上天給我的一種懲罰。」他回憶起入境美國時在機場所遇到的誇張刁難，然後開始像個孩子似地直覺發想，「美國人的問題，就是太自大、太傲慢了。」接著，麥嘉華逐漸理解這個國家何以無視於不斷擴大的貿易赤字，也以此推論出美國的世界競爭力逐漸衰退、赤字恐將持續擴大的未來新局。
而這篇文章的主題之一，就白紙黑字地清楚寫著，「避開美國金融資產」。半年之後，美國次貸問題全面引爆。
斷定空頭 從網路消息推論
到了今年初，麥嘉華一不小心又看到了壞消息。不是什麼重大的經濟數據，也不是哪個金融機構虧損慘重，看到的是一則沒有引起太多注意的網路調查。「根據美國信用卡網站CreditCards.com的調查，為了支付暖氣費，多達二千七百萬名美國人必須在今年冬天借貸度日，其中還有二千萬人得使用信用卡才能繳交暖氣費用。」他以此為引，再度發表後市推論。「美國家庭的財務狀況已出現了大問題，導致零售業的股價表現不濟，因為人民支出減少，代表企業獲利也將下降，如此一來股市更會走向下跌一途。」他肯定地說。
即使不少投資機構近期陸續對美國下半年景氣發表樂觀看法，但麥嘉華仍然堅持來自於網路調查所推演的看空結論，並且轉化為實際的投資策略，「抱著現金可以賺到二％至三％的利息報酬，好像少了一點，但總比持有下跌一○％的股票來得好！」不像其他投資大師的樂觀，日前麥嘉華在接受《今周刊》專訪時，坦言「現在找不到令人興奮的投資方向」。
「不過，手中持有許多現金部位，目的也就是希望在好的時機出現時，可以即刻有資金快速進場。」操作保守不代表心態保守，末日博士麥嘉華，將會繼續冷靜看世界。
Singapore property prices have peaked - govt
SINGAPORE, May 23 (Reuters) -
Singapore''s booming property market has peaked and will continue to moderate over the next two years, the country''s trade ministry said on Friday.
Singapore''s central bank said that while the financial servicesindustry could face some slowdown there was no evidence of a large job cuts.
"There could be some slowdown, but not major slowdown. Anecdotal evidence shows that while financial institutions are reviewing headcounts and business lines, they arealso looking at several areas of growth," Monetary Authority of Singapore Deputy
Managing Director Ong Chon Tee told a news conference.
Singapore''s booming property market has peaked and will continue to moderate over the next two years, the country''s trade ministry said on Friday.
Singapore''s central bank said that while the financial servicesindustry could face some slowdown there was no evidence of a large job cuts.
"There could be some slowdown, but not major slowdown. Anecdotal evidence shows that while financial institutions are reviewing headcounts and business lines, they arealso looking at several areas of growth," Monetary Authority of Singapore Deputy
Managing Director Ong Chon Tee told a news conference.
養錢 賺錢高手的致富祕方
油電高漲，手上的錢愈變愈薄，薪水階級怎麼把錢變大？其實只要找對方法，即使手上資金不多，也可以把小錢變大錢。巴菲特說：「投資就如同呼吸一樣，是24小時運作。」
這是處於Ｍ型社會裡，大家共同的疑惑——為何有錢人口袋裡的錢能不斷長大，而自己的卻不斷縮水？《有錢人和你想得不一樣》一書作者T. Harv Eker，提出了解答：有錢人把每一塊錢都視為「種子」，把它種下之後可以多賺一百塊錢，再把這些賺到的錢種下，又多回收一千塊錢。
其中的關鍵點在於「學習」，有錢人會去了解各種投資工具，找一個可以讓錢長大的領域，研究它，成為專家。
這就是有錢人「養錢」的「撇步」。賺錢高手總會費盡心力，找一個適當的地方，把錢放在那兒，讓錢長大！
公務員出身，談事業、從不談理財，目前擁有數億元身價的福懋建設董事長江子超，首度披露投資心法，是典型養錢成功的例子！
回想過去，在縣政府任土木科技師的二年又二個月日子，江子超百感交集，對照過去和今天的成就，他的確幫自己的錢，找到一個很好的長大環境。
培養「養錢」習慣》堅守「二律原則」，規律以及紀律
江子超：投資要做好，一定要做足功課之後，用對策略。
二十五年前，福懋建設董事長江子超，只是個縣政府的土木科技師，每個月拿二萬多元的薪水，過著一般公務員的生活。白手起家的江子超談到創業歷程，戴著金邊眼鏡背後的他眼神精亮，開始細數當年父親如何拿房子抵押，借他一百萬元，及妻子張簡麗香替他在外張羅一百萬元，總共約二百多萬元創業基金的過程。
一九八五年創業，八八年把創業賺來的錢投資股市，開啟了他的養錢之路。
「我平常就是這樣，一邊看財經新聞，一邊跑步……。」江子超在二十坪大的房間裡，邊跑邊聊起他平日的投資生活。江子超形容床頭櫃上，一落落已閱讀過的財經雜誌，《和巴菲特同步買進》、《看見價值》等多本投資相關書籍，七十六吋電視螢幕、跑步機以及筆記型電腦，形成了他的另一個「無形公司」，讓他能投資全球！
早晨六點至七點是江子超的起床時間，簡單用香皂洗個臉，吃完早餐後，江子超就開始他規律的生活。八點前，江子超一定看完鉅亨網等財經訊息，八點到公司後，再花二個小時，修正投資配置。
接下來，處理公文、開會、看工地，傍晚六點回家吃完晚飯後，則是他消化全世界金融訊息的時間，「十點、最晚十點半，我一定上床睡覺。
我很重視規律！」江子超開玩笑的形容自己是「宅男」，生活的紀律和投資一樣嚴格。
「我深信，一個成功的人，紀律很重要，要管理好投資，首先一定得先管理好自己。規律的生活，就表示你是會控管自己的人。」「我的生活老早就是『二個太陽』。」江子超白天開設計會議，看工地；晚上幾乎都要花二至三個小時，閱讀道瓊等指數以及全球各國的報紙，讓自己和全世界的經濟脈動接軌，周末還撥出一整天時間，閱讀所有完整的外資報告。
規律以及紀律，是江子超很堅持的一部分，對於這位數億身價的賺錢高手而言，規律是成功投資的第一步。
找尋「養錢」標的 培養「投資嗅覺」
雖然，目前江子超已累積了許多人幾輩子都賺不到的財富。但他強調，這一切根源有很大部分來自於在金錢管理下了很大的工夫。「愛因斯坦不是說過，世界上最偉大的發明不是原子彈，而是複利！」
從江子超八八年開始投資股票算起，至今，約有二十年時間，他說這些日子自己費了不少工夫，為錢找到好的處所，用複利方式，讓錢在對的地方被養大！
生活在「二個太陽」裡，江子超樂在其中，對於他來說，投資很大的樂趣來自於印證自己對未來的看法很準確。其中最得意的一役是躲過八九年四月的台灣股災！回想起這一段，江子超臉上流露出自信得意的微笑。
「印象很深刻，那一天是四月三日，兒童節前一天，一早，我眼睛睜開，就和老婆說，今天要賣股票，而且要『總清』（閩南語，清光光的意思），老婆還問我，是連股子股孫都要賣嗎？我還回答：『對，總清！』」江子超四月三日賣出所有股票，四月十七日，台灣發生股災，股市持續狂瀉，江子超卻毫髮無傷！
雖然這樣的經驗看來很神奇，但對於江子超而言，這都是有跡可循。「因為三月二十九日那天，成交量已經出現大問題，這是很大的警訊！」
對於其他人來說聽起來很玄，但對江子超而言，這一點都不意外；因為，長期以來，在全球金融資訊中打滾，市場一有異動，他就能如警犬般，嗅出變化的味道。
同樣的，○七年八月得知Ｆｅｄ降息，江子超提早嗅出台股下跌味道，減碼出場，「去年，我一直不看好台股。」每天，江子超都會把台股和港股的周平均量和日平均量擺在一起參考，如果是每況愈下就減碼，節節上升就加碼。「去年年初，台股和港股就出現分岔，因此那個時候我對台股就開始減碼，減了幾千萬元，最低到持股五％。」也因為長期注意的關係，江子超又成功躲過了去年的大股災...
抓住社會脈動／更準確地擊中投資標的
每個月，江子超都會抽空到香港、澳門待上二天，除了和不同銀行的基金經理人吃飯外，就是看樓房，「目的不一定是要買，而是要抓到社會脈動的神經；只要抓住地區社會經濟脈動的神經，一定會賺，如果沒有抓到，就會人云亦云！」
江子超不論去任何地方，都一定會把找尋投資標的順道放在行程裡，「以在香港看房地產來說，每看一間，仲介人都會把房市、景氣以及投資市場跟你分析得很詳細；看到第三間，對於當地的情況，就很瞭若指掌了，要再找到投資標的就不難了。」每個月到國外了解投資趨勢，是江子超下投資判斷的重要資訊來源之一。
同樣的方法，也發生在ＩＮＧ安泰人壽業務經理薛妙玲身上。「近年來，旅行，是我找尋投資靈感的方式之一。」薛妙玲形容，工作了二十多年，旅行五十多個國家，近幾年來，深刻體會到原來很多的投資資訊，可以從旅行經驗中獲得。
「二○○二年，在公司同事介紹下進場俄羅斯基金，到現在，獲利有五倍以上。」薛妙玲解釋，會有如此高的獲利，在於她買了俄羅斯基金後，又到當地旅行，回來之後，立刻加碼。
薛妙玲拿出近百張當年在俄羅斯拍的照片來，「你們看，環境那麼好，居民教育水準高，科技進步，再加上有石油等天然礦產，那地方早已不是當年想像的俄羅斯。條件這麼好的國家，沒有理由不去投資。」旅行回來之後，即使很多人勸她，俄羅斯基金可能已到了高點，但她還是相信自己眼睛所看到的實景，硬是加碼，至今才有五倍的獲利。
薛妙玲認為，當年她聞到了俄羅斯基金可以加碼的味道，進場有了不錯的獲利；現在，她則聞到非洲的投資味道。薛妙玲提到自己的客戶在南非發展七年多，如今，已成為千萬富翁。為了印證自己的想法，因此，即使非洲已去了五次，但仍計畫再去一趟。「要想致富，就要找個好地方，把錢養起來。」
一邊旅行，一邊蒐集投資資訊，也成了薛妙玲找尋養錢標的方法之一。
發揮「養錢」力量／讓多頭、空頭兩個腦替你賺錢
湯瑪斯．史丹利（Thomas Stanley）在著作《下一個富翁就是你》（The Millionaire Next Door）將北美擁有千萬資產的富豪作了整理，下的結論是：「有錢人很善於管理金錢。」也就是如《有錢人和你想的不一樣》一書中所提：有錢人並不比窮人聰明，只不過有錢人管理金錢的習慣和窮人不一樣，而且比較有效，如江子超就是用系統有效的方法，來管理他的金錢流向。
「我有兩個公司，一個有形公司，一個無形公司。」江子超很得意自己管理金錢的方式。對他而言，有形公司是指本業房地產公司，無形公司就是他和他的筆記型電腦。每天，他都會照顧這兩個公司，讓兩個公司，同時幫他賺錢。
其中無形公司的管理，江子超還用「兩個腦袋」來管理它，「我用兩個腦袋來管理無形公司，一個是『多頭腦袋』，一個是『空頭腦袋』。」他認為惟有如此，才能讓無形公司的財富快速地增加。
江子超認為，很少人能在多頭和空頭市場都賺到錢，因此要能把錢養得好，一定要做足功課、用對策略，「多頭時期用『多頭腦袋』，空頭時期用『空頭腦袋』，用二種腦袋來做長線投資。」
所謂的「多頭腦袋」，指的是在多頭行情時，選擇強勢區域、強勢產業裡的龍頭股，等到好價錢之後出手。
至於「空頭腦袋」，是指當空頭市場來臨，選擇殖利率高於定存的股票來投資，如台塑或是中鋼等。或是做外幣定存，每月結清獲利，並視匯率狀況調整，避開匯兌風險，到年底約有一○％報酬。
江子超進一步解釋多頭行情的選股策略，他舉近來得意之作——中國人壽。
江子超對自己眼光精準，頗為得意。他說，以台灣壽險業來看，它占台灣ＧＤＰ的一四％，但在中國只占四％，顯見很有發展潛力。再加上中國人壽在該國壽險業市場占有率超過六○％，當然是龍頭產業；江子超推算合理價格是二十至二十三元間。○五年底時，開始觀察研究，等到○六年價格在二十二元以下時，就快、狠、準「敲進」。投資港股，讓江子超獲利超過一倍。
「我的大原則是『集中獲利，分散持有』。」江子超認為，就他整個投資生涯來說，除了用「多頭腦袋」和「空頭腦袋」兩個大腦幫他賺錢外，還以「新錢」（new money）和「舊錢」（old money） 來區分整個資產。
他解釋，「new money 就是本業賺進來還未有任何用途的錢，也就是集中獲利的部分。至於拿來投資各種理財工具的錢就是old money，這部分的錢，則要分散持有，所以會依據多頭或空頭市場來調整投資比例。」
「換句話說，new money代表一個江子超，old money 也代表一個江子超。當old money 賺的錢和new money一樣多時，等於二個江子超在賺錢。」江子超形容，一旦old money是new money兩倍時，就是三個江子超在賺錢……。
這就是養錢的力量。
控制「養錢」風險／形成自己的看法後，減少動作「保錢」
「我的原則是，股票大跌時進場『撈底』（香港用語，股市跌到谷底時去撿便宜），大跌大買，小跌小買。但我一旦進場，一定把要買下手的那一檔，從基本面到技術面從頭到尾研究清楚，蒐集各方資訊後，找出合理價格，設定之後，就開始等待。」
「對於錢的感覺要『冷冷的』，很衝動一定賺不到錢。」江子超很強調「等待」的重要，「我一年真正大幅進出股市，大約就二次，而且會把所有經濟景氣循環的訊息，以及價量關係、技術分析，都搞得很清楚。虧損七％至一○％就會停損。」
對於風險控管，江子超異常謹慎。他舉了一個例子，「九八年台灣房地產跌落谷底，高雄有九三％的建商倒閉時，我想了十三招防護網來控制我所有資產，包括控制投資風險。但至目前為止，我一招都沒有用過，因為通常損失在七％至一○％，我就會停損。」
會養錢，也要會「保錢」。經歷過投資市場大起的風光，也看過大落的窘境，使得賺錢高手們，深諳錢財的來去之道，因此，對於「風險」會特別小心謹慎。
「把心放小一點比較舒服。」前中信證資深副總沈文恕同樣也出身公務員家庭，且因服務於金融業，對風險特別敏感。八五年他冒險大量買下二十元中國信託未上市股票，獲利超過+二十倍，替自己打下深厚財務基礎，其後投資就轉為保守。
沈文恕控制風險的方式，也和江子超有異曲同工之妙，江子超善於「撈底」；而沈文恕則是「超跌才投資」。
在進場時，沈文恕通常會先以小部分資金「試水溫」，一旦確定是底部位置，就大量進場；他在資金控制上小心翼翼，選擇先買三分之一的部位，再進剩下資金的二分之一，若沒有跌至一五％至二○％，就不會再進場。「不要口袋有錢，就非買不可。」沈文恕強調。
享受「養錢」的成果／過愜意生活
江子超這幾年來，除了投資與營建事業之外，潛心投入慈濟公益活動；身居天母靜謐巷內的沈文恕，則將投資市場收益轉為藝術收藏，過著愜意的退休生活；薛妙玲仍四處旅遊，放鬆自己的同時也搜集投資訊息。
他們最初都只是薪水階級，但藉由「養錢」方法，把小錢變成大錢，過著愜意生活。學會養錢方法，不必很大的本錢，你也可以把自己的小錢養成大錢！
■江子超
年齡：四十八歲
投資年齡：二十年
投資履歷：二○○七年買進香港交易所股票，獲利二倍；同年，投資中國人壽，獲利二倍。
給投資者三句話：投資要做好，一定要做足功課之後，用對策略。大跌大買，小跌小買。
對於錢的感覺要「冷冷的」，很衝動一定賺不到錢。
■薛妙玲
年齡：四十八歲
投資年齡：十年
投資履歷：二○○二年買入俄羅斯基金，獲利五倍；二○○六年，投資紅酒獲利四○％；二○○五年投資買霸菱香港中國基金，獲利二倍。
給投資者三句話：養成儲蓄的習慣。
不要把全部雞蛋放在同一個籃子，要做資產。
不要短進短出，要長期投資。
■沈文恕
年齡：五十八歲
投資年齡：二十五年
投資履歷：一九八六年，投資中國信託未上市股票，漲了至少二十倍；二○○六年在海外購得中國Ａ股基金，賺了三倍；二○○五年買香港基金，賺了一倍。
給投資者三句話：年紀輕時積極，資金大時要分散，注意風險。
注意基金的幣別，幣別分散，再去選基金。
基本面不變，保有現金，超跌時才進場，不要進出太頻繁。
這是處於Ｍ型社會裡，大家共同的疑惑——為何有錢人口袋裡的錢能不斷長大，而自己的卻不斷縮水？《有錢人和你想得不一樣》一書作者T. Harv Eker，提出了解答：有錢人把每一塊錢都視為「種子」，把它種下之後可以多賺一百塊錢，再把這些賺到的錢種下，又多回收一千塊錢。
其中的關鍵點在於「學習」，有錢人會去了解各種投資工具，找一個可以讓錢長大的領域，研究它，成為專家。
這就是有錢人「養錢」的「撇步」。賺錢高手總會費盡心力，找一個適當的地方，把錢放在那兒，讓錢長大！
公務員出身，談事業、從不談理財，目前擁有數億元身價的福懋建設董事長江子超，首度披露投資心法，是典型養錢成功的例子！
回想過去，在縣政府任土木科技師的二年又二個月日子，江子超百感交集，對照過去和今天的成就，他的確幫自己的錢，找到一個很好的長大環境。
培養「養錢」習慣》堅守「二律原則」，規律以及紀律
江子超：投資要做好，一定要做足功課之後，用對策略。
二十五年前，福懋建設董事長江子超，只是個縣政府的土木科技師，每個月拿二萬多元的薪水，過著一般公務員的生活。白手起家的江子超談到創業歷程，戴著金邊眼鏡背後的他眼神精亮，開始細數當年父親如何拿房子抵押，借他一百萬元，及妻子張簡麗香替他在外張羅一百萬元，總共約二百多萬元創業基金的過程。
一九八五年創業，八八年把創業賺來的錢投資股市，開啟了他的養錢之路。
「我平常就是這樣，一邊看財經新聞，一邊跑步……。」江子超在二十坪大的房間裡，邊跑邊聊起他平日的投資生活。江子超形容床頭櫃上，一落落已閱讀過的財經雜誌，《和巴菲特同步買進》、《看見價值》等多本投資相關書籍，七十六吋電視螢幕、跑步機以及筆記型電腦，形成了他的另一個「無形公司」，讓他能投資全球！
早晨六點至七點是江子超的起床時間，簡單用香皂洗個臉，吃完早餐後，江子超就開始他規律的生活。八點前，江子超一定看完鉅亨網等財經訊息，八點到公司後，再花二個小時，修正投資配置。
接下來，處理公文、開會、看工地，傍晚六點回家吃完晚飯後，則是他消化全世界金融訊息的時間，「十點、最晚十點半，我一定上床睡覺。
我很重視規律！」江子超開玩笑的形容自己是「宅男」，生活的紀律和投資一樣嚴格。
「我深信，一個成功的人，紀律很重要，要管理好投資，首先一定得先管理好自己。規律的生活，就表示你是會控管自己的人。」「我的生活老早就是『二個太陽』。」江子超白天開設計會議，看工地；晚上幾乎都要花二至三個小時，閱讀道瓊等指數以及全球各國的報紙，讓自己和全世界的經濟脈動接軌，周末還撥出一整天時間，閱讀所有完整的外資報告。
規律以及紀律，是江子超很堅持的一部分，對於這位數億身價的賺錢高手而言，規律是成功投資的第一步。
找尋「養錢」標的 培養「投資嗅覺」
雖然，目前江子超已累積了許多人幾輩子都賺不到的財富。但他強調，這一切根源有很大部分來自於在金錢管理下了很大的工夫。「愛因斯坦不是說過，世界上最偉大的發明不是原子彈，而是複利！」
從江子超八八年開始投資股票算起，至今，約有二十年時間，他說這些日子自己費了不少工夫，為錢找到好的處所，用複利方式，讓錢在對的地方被養大！
生活在「二個太陽」裡，江子超樂在其中，對於他來說，投資很大的樂趣來自於印證自己對未來的看法很準確。其中最得意的一役是躲過八九年四月的台灣股災！回想起這一段，江子超臉上流露出自信得意的微笑。
「印象很深刻，那一天是四月三日，兒童節前一天，一早，我眼睛睜開，就和老婆說，今天要賣股票，而且要『總清』（閩南語，清光光的意思），老婆還問我，是連股子股孫都要賣嗎？我還回答：『對，總清！』」江子超四月三日賣出所有股票，四月十七日，台灣發生股災，股市持續狂瀉，江子超卻毫髮無傷！
雖然這樣的經驗看來很神奇，但對於江子超而言，這都是有跡可循。「因為三月二十九日那天，成交量已經出現大問題，這是很大的警訊！」
對於其他人來說聽起來很玄，但對江子超而言，這一點都不意外；因為，長期以來，在全球金融資訊中打滾，市場一有異動，他就能如警犬般，嗅出變化的味道。
同樣的，○七年八月得知Ｆｅｄ降息，江子超提早嗅出台股下跌味道，減碼出場，「去年，我一直不看好台股。」每天，江子超都會把台股和港股的周平均量和日平均量擺在一起參考，如果是每況愈下就減碼，節節上升就加碼。「去年年初，台股和港股就出現分岔，因此那個時候我對台股就開始減碼，減了幾千萬元，最低到持股五％。」也因為長期注意的關係，江子超又成功躲過了去年的大股災...
抓住社會脈動／更準確地擊中投資標的
每個月，江子超都會抽空到香港、澳門待上二天，除了和不同銀行的基金經理人吃飯外，就是看樓房，「目的不一定是要買，而是要抓到社會脈動的神經；只要抓住地區社會經濟脈動的神經，一定會賺，如果沒有抓到，就會人云亦云！」
江子超不論去任何地方，都一定會把找尋投資標的順道放在行程裡，「以在香港看房地產來說，每看一間，仲介人都會把房市、景氣以及投資市場跟你分析得很詳細；看到第三間，對於當地的情況，就很瞭若指掌了，要再找到投資標的就不難了。」每個月到國外了解投資趨勢，是江子超下投資判斷的重要資訊來源之一。
同樣的方法，也發生在ＩＮＧ安泰人壽業務經理薛妙玲身上。「近年來，旅行，是我找尋投資靈感的方式之一。」薛妙玲形容，工作了二十多年，旅行五十多個國家，近幾年來，深刻體會到原來很多的投資資訊，可以從旅行經驗中獲得。
「二○○二年，在公司同事介紹下進場俄羅斯基金，到現在，獲利有五倍以上。」薛妙玲解釋，會有如此高的獲利，在於她買了俄羅斯基金後，又到當地旅行，回來之後，立刻加碼。
薛妙玲拿出近百張當年在俄羅斯拍的照片來，「你們看，環境那麼好，居民教育水準高，科技進步，再加上有石油等天然礦產，那地方早已不是當年想像的俄羅斯。條件這麼好的國家，沒有理由不去投資。」旅行回來之後，即使很多人勸她，俄羅斯基金可能已到了高點，但她還是相信自己眼睛所看到的實景，硬是加碼，至今才有五倍的獲利。
薛妙玲認為，當年她聞到了俄羅斯基金可以加碼的味道，進場有了不錯的獲利；現在，她則聞到非洲的投資味道。薛妙玲提到自己的客戶在南非發展七年多，如今，已成為千萬富翁。為了印證自己的想法，因此，即使非洲已去了五次，但仍計畫再去一趟。「要想致富，就要找個好地方，把錢養起來。」
一邊旅行，一邊蒐集投資資訊，也成了薛妙玲找尋養錢標的方法之一。
發揮「養錢」力量／讓多頭、空頭兩個腦替你賺錢
湯瑪斯．史丹利（Thomas Stanley）在著作《下一個富翁就是你》（The Millionaire Next Door）將北美擁有千萬資產的富豪作了整理，下的結論是：「有錢人很善於管理金錢。」也就是如《有錢人和你想的不一樣》一書中所提：有錢人並不比窮人聰明，只不過有錢人管理金錢的習慣和窮人不一樣，而且比較有效，如江子超就是用系統有效的方法，來管理他的金錢流向。
「我有兩個公司，一個有形公司，一個無形公司。」江子超很得意自己管理金錢的方式。對他而言，有形公司是指本業房地產公司，無形公司就是他和他的筆記型電腦。每天，他都會照顧這兩個公司，讓兩個公司，同時幫他賺錢。
其中無形公司的管理，江子超還用「兩個腦袋」來管理它，「我用兩個腦袋來管理無形公司，一個是『多頭腦袋』，一個是『空頭腦袋』。」他認為惟有如此，才能讓無形公司的財富快速地增加。
江子超認為，很少人能在多頭和空頭市場都賺到錢，因此要能把錢養得好，一定要做足功課、用對策略，「多頭時期用『多頭腦袋』，空頭時期用『空頭腦袋』，用二種腦袋來做長線投資。」
所謂的「多頭腦袋」，指的是在多頭行情時，選擇強勢區域、強勢產業裡的龍頭股，等到好價錢之後出手。
至於「空頭腦袋」，是指當空頭市場來臨，選擇殖利率高於定存的股票來投資，如台塑或是中鋼等。或是做外幣定存，每月結清獲利，並視匯率狀況調整，避開匯兌風險，到年底約有一○％報酬。
江子超進一步解釋多頭行情的選股策略，他舉近來得意之作——中國人壽。
江子超對自己眼光精準，頗為得意。他說，以台灣壽險業來看，它占台灣ＧＤＰ的一四％，但在中國只占四％，顯見很有發展潛力。再加上中國人壽在該國壽險業市場占有率超過六○％，當然是龍頭產業；江子超推算合理價格是二十至二十三元間。○五年底時，開始觀察研究，等到○六年價格在二十二元以下時，就快、狠、準「敲進」。投資港股，讓江子超獲利超過一倍。
「我的大原則是『集中獲利，分散持有』。」江子超認為，就他整個投資生涯來說，除了用「多頭腦袋」和「空頭腦袋」兩個大腦幫他賺錢外，還以「新錢」（new money）和「舊錢」（old money） 來區分整個資產。
他解釋，「new money 就是本業賺進來還未有任何用途的錢，也就是集中獲利的部分。至於拿來投資各種理財工具的錢就是old money，這部分的錢，則要分散持有，所以會依據多頭或空頭市場來調整投資比例。」
「換句話說，new money代表一個江子超，old money 也代表一個江子超。當old money 賺的錢和new money一樣多時，等於二個江子超在賺錢。」江子超形容，一旦old money是new money兩倍時，就是三個江子超在賺錢……。
這就是養錢的力量。
控制「養錢」風險／形成自己的看法後，減少動作「保錢」
「我的原則是，股票大跌時進場『撈底』（香港用語，股市跌到谷底時去撿便宜），大跌大買，小跌小買。但我一旦進場，一定把要買下手的那一檔，從基本面到技術面從頭到尾研究清楚，蒐集各方資訊後，找出合理價格，設定之後，就開始等待。」
「對於錢的感覺要『冷冷的』，很衝動一定賺不到錢。」江子超很強調「等待」的重要，「我一年真正大幅進出股市，大約就二次，而且會把所有經濟景氣循環的訊息，以及價量關係、技術分析，都搞得很清楚。虧損七％至一○％就會停損。」
對於風險控管，江子超異常謹慎。他舉了一個例子，「九八年台灣房地產跌落谷底，高雄有九三％的建商倒閉時，我想了十三招防護網來控制我所有資產，包括控制投資風險。但至目前為止，我一招都沒有用過，因為通常損失在七％至一○％，我就會停損。」
會養錢，也要會「保錢」。經歷過投資市場大起的風光，也看過大落的窘境，使得賺錢高手們，深諳錢財的來去之道，因此，對於「風險」會特別小心謹慎。
「把心放小一點比較舒服。」前中信證資深副總沈文恕同樣也出身公務員家庭，且因服務於金融業，對風險特別敏感。八五年他冒險大量買下二十元中國信託未上市股票，獲利超過+二十倍，替自己打下深厚財務基礎，其後投資就轉為保守。
沈文恕控制風險的方式，也和江子超有異曲同工之妙，江子超善於「撈底」；而沈文恕則是「超跌才投資」。
在進場時，沈文恕通常會先以小部分資金「試水溫」，一旦確定是底部位置，就大量進場；他在資金控制上小心翼翼，選擇先買三分之一的部位，再進剩下資金的二分之一，若沒有跌至一五％至二○％，就不會再進場。「不要口袋有錢，就非買不可。」沈文恕強調。
享受「養錢」的成果／過愜意生活
江子超這幾年來，除了投資與營建事業之外，潛心投入慈濟公益活動；身居天母靜謐巷內的沈文恕，則將投資市場收益轉為藝術收藏，過著愜意的退休生活；薛妙玲仍四處旅遊，放鬆自己的同時也搜集投資訊息。
他們最初都只是薪水階級，但藉由「養錢」方法，把小錢變成大錢，過著愜意生活。學會養錢方法，不必很大的本錢，你也可以把自己的小錢養成大錢！
■江子超
年齡：四十八歲
投資年齡：二十年
投資履歷：二○○七年買進香港交易所股票，獲利二倍；同年，投資中國人壽，獲利二倍。
給投資者三句話：投資要做好，一定要做足功課之後，用對策略。大跌大買，小跌小買。
對於錢的感覺要「冷冷的」，很衝動一定賺不到錢。
■薛妙玲
年齡：四十八歲
投資年齡：十年
投資履歷：二○○二年買入俄羅斯基金，獲利五倍；二○○六年，投資紅酒獲利四○％；二○○五年投資買霸菱香港中國基金，獲利二倍。
給投資者三句話：養成儲蓄的習慣。
不要把全部雞蛋放在同一個籃子，要做資產。
不要短進短出，要長期投資。
■沈文恕
年齡：五十八歲
投資年齡：二十五年
投資履歷：一九八六年，投資中國信託未上市股票，漲了至少二十倍；二○○六年在海外購得中國Ａ股基金，賺了三倍；二○○五年買香港基金，賺了一倍。
給投資者三句話：年紀輕時積極，資金大時要分散，注意風險。
注意基金的幣別，幣別分散，再去選基金。
基本面不變，保有現金，超跌時才進場，不要進出太頻繁。
股神的「雜貨店經營學」 巴菲特用3000萬換13.5億的智慧
一個13歲的毛孩子，把爺爺當年經營雜貨店的精髓，一點一滴，運用在公司的經營上面，不但延續了家族企業的經營火種，更創造驚人績效，締造出舉世聞名的波克夏王國，這位有神奇魔力的小男孩，就是當今股神與全球首富——巴菲特。
這是一位七十七歲的智慧老人，照著十三歲時腦中的圖像，一點一滴，完成爺爺當初未竟夢想的故事。
「……十三歲時，我在祖父的雜貨店中住了四個月，就睡在堆滿《讀者文摘》的小房間中……他當時計畫出一本《如何經營雜貨店》的小書，就要我這個廉價勞工，把他所有的想法，用舊的計帳本背後空白的部分，全部記下……」這是巴菲特（Warren Buffett）今年為他表弟比爾．巴菲特（Bill Buffett）的新書《食物饗宴》（Foods You Will Enjoy）中，寫的一段話，記錄當年在祖父奧尼斯（Ernest Buffett）雜貨鋪中學到的種種。
雖然爺爺的出書計畫最後失敗，但這四個月的朝夕相處，埋下了華倫．巴菲特成為一代偉大投資家的種子；祖父經營雜貨鋪的哲學，更成為波克夏在四十年間，能從即將倒閉的紡織廠，壯大成為兆元帝國的基礎。
第一堂課》現金流入大的商品就是寶
經營雜貨店的人都知道，本小、利多、周轉率高的產品，是生存的不二法寶。以後見之明來看，波克夏購併公司的標準及條件，竟和當年巴菲特家族經營雜貨鋪選擇上架貨品的條件，如出一轍，找的對象都是一些投資小，但現金流入大的公司。因此，當初躺在雜貨店貨架上的熱門商品，卡夫卡奶油、OREO餅乾、麥斯威爾咖啡、箭牌口香糖、Milky巧克力棒，甚至連當初製造雜貨店外送車隊的馬門（Marmon）集團，在過去一年中，陸續投入波克夏懷抱。
巴菲特家族的雜貨店不是奧瑪哈最早成立的雜貨店，卻是當地活得最長的鋪子之一，在孫子華倫．巴菲特還未成為資本市場的一方之霸時，老巴菲特早就已經是奧瑪哈零售業講話擲地有聲的意見領袖。他常掛在嘴邊的話就是：「成功的雜貨店老闆得帶著腦子上工！」（The master merchant must use his head）。
第二堂課》設定安全邊際就能存活
他說，雜貨店經營要能存活，最重要的是如何應付生意清淡的日子。周六生意一定好，周日及周五就算差一點，也不至於差太遠，最重要的是如何應付清淡的星期一、星期三及星期四，「每一個工作天都有不同的計畫，如此，開了張，錢才會跑進來」。錢進來之後，更重要的是如何運用它，「如何把錢安全地投資在對的地方，比賺錢進來難太多了！」這樣「沒想成功、先想敗」的經營邏輯，與巴菲特及其恩師葛拉漢的投資理論核心「安全邊際」（Margin of Safety），幾乎沒有二致。
有了安全邊際的概念，巴菲特在集團擴張時，信心就多了三分，即使價錢稍貴一些，只要時機掌握得對、企業價值看得準，其他都不是問題。
不論是收購卡夫食品八．六％股權，或是與Ｍ&Ｍ巧克力集團，共同買下箭牌口香糖集團（Wrigley's），價錢都比市場估計得高，特別是箭牌集團的買進溢價高達三○％以上，連巴菲特在今年股東會上都承認：「價錢其實不是這麼便宜，但我確定它們絕對不在高檔，價錢雖不低......但我就是愛這種牌子老、經營穩的大食品廠，它們的地位非常難被扳倒，我情願用高一點的價格，買下一家績優公司，也不願用低價買一家爛公司！」
第三堂課》品牌優，小本也能滾大利
老先覺當然有他自己的邏輯，在今年巴菲特給股東的信中，巴菲特特別以喜思巧克力（See's）為例，談到了這個品牌食品廠，如何小兵立大功，帶來日後十三．五億美元的現金流入，一點一滴幫助他打造波克夏江山。
股神的算盤是這樣撥的。波克夏在一九七二年以二五○○萬美元，買下喜思巧克力，當時營收約三千萬美元、獲利只有五百萬美元，每年所需營運資本約為八百萬美元；三十五年間，喜思靠著品牌及小本經營，營收及獲利連年成長，至去年為止，獲利已經超過八一○○萬美元，若把這三十五年間淨利加總起來，金額更高達十三．五億美元，比當年的五百萬美元，整整膨脹了二七○倍。
這樣的巨幅成長，營運資本只較當年小小增加了四倍，至四千萬美元。換句話說，喜思只要保留不到四千萬美元的資金，就可以把賺到的十三多億美元資金，全部「繳庫」給母公司，再由波克夏做進一步的投資運用，巴菲特喜歡的就是這種品牌食品公司「本小利大」的媚力。
把這個邏輯釐清之後，巴菲特投資這兩個品牌大廠的道理就越來越清楚了。以卡夫食品來說，旗下擁有的品牌包括：OREO巧克力夾心、麥斯威爾咖啡、RITZ餅乾、Milky巧克力，都是卡夫食品旗下的重要品牌...
這是一位七十七歲的智慧老人，照著十三歲時腦中的圖像，一點一滴，完成爺爺當初未竟夢想的故事。
「……十三歲時，我在祖父的雜貨店中住了四個月，就睡在堆滿《讀者文摘》的小房間中……他當時計畫出一本《如何經營雜貨店》的小書，就要我這個廉價勞工，把他所有的想法，用舊的計帳本背後空白的部分，全部記下……」這是巴菲特（Warren Buffett）今年為他表弟比爾．巴菲特（Bill Buffett）的新書《食物饗宴》（Foods You Will Enjoy）中，寫的一段話，記錄當年在祖父奧尼斯（Ernest Buffett）雜貨鋪中學到的種種。
雖然爺爺的出書計畫最後失敗，但這四個月的朝夕相處，埋下了華倫．巴菲特成為一代偉大投資家的種子；祖父經營雜貨鋪的哲學，更成為波克夏在四十年間，能從即將倒閉的紡織廠，壯大成為兆元帝國的基礎。
第一堂課》現金流入大的商品就是寶
經營雜貨店的人都知道，本小、利多、周轉率高的產品，是生存的不二法寶。以後見之明來看，波克夏購併公司的標準及條件，竟和當年巴菲特家族經營雜貨鋪選擇上架貨品的條件，如出一轍，找的對象都是一些投資小，但現金流入大的公司。因此，當初躺在雜貨店貨架上的熱門商品，卡夫卡奶油、OREO餅乾、麥斯威爾咖啡、箭牌口香糖、Milky巧克力棒，甚至連當初製造雜貨店外送車隊的馬門（Marmon）集團，在過去一年中，陸續投入波克夏懷抱。
巴菲特家族的雜貨店不是奧瑪哈最早成立的雜貨店，卻是當地活得最長的鋪子之一，在孫子華倫．巴菲特還未成為資本市場的一方之霸時，老巴菲特早就已經是奧瑪哈零售業講話擲地有聲的意見領袖。他常掛在嘴邊的話就是：「成功的雜貨店老闆得帶著腦子上工！」（The master merchant must use his head）。
第二堂課》設定安全邊際就能存活
他說，雜貨店經營要能存活，最重要的是如何應付生意清淡的日子。周六生意一定好，周日及周五就算差一點，也不至於差太遠，最重要的是如何應付清淡的星期一、星期三及星期四，「每一個工作天都有不同的計畫，如此，開了張，錢才會跑進來」。錢進來之後，更重要的是如何運用它，「如何把錢安全地投資在對的地方，比賺錢進來難太多了！」這樣「沒想成功、先想敗」的經營邏輯，與巴菲特及其恩師葛拉漢的投資理論核心「安全邊際」（Margin of Safety），幾乎沒有二致。
有了安全邊際的概念，巴菲特在集團擴張時，信心就多了三分，即使價錢稍貴一些，只要時機掌握得對、企業價值看得準，其他都不是問題。
不論是收購卡夫食品八．六％股權，或是與Ｍ&Ｍ巧克力集團，共同買下箭牌口香糖集團（Wrigley's），價錢都比市場估計得高，特別是箭牌集團的買進溢價高達三○％以上，連巴菲特在今年股東會上都承認：「價錢其實不是這麼便宜，但我確定它們絕對不在高檔，價錢雖不低......但我就是愛這種牌子老、經營穩的大食品廠，它們的地位非常難被扳倒，我情願用高一點的價格，買下一家績優公司，也不願用低價買一家爛公司！」
第三堂課》品牌優，小本也能滾大利
老先覺當然有他自己的邏輯，在今年巴菲特給股東的信中，巴菲特特別以喜思巧克力（See's）為例，談到了這個品牌食品廠，如何小兵立大功，帶來日後十三．五億美元的現金流入，一點一滴幫助他打造波克夏江山。
股神的算盤是這樣撥的。波克夏在一九七二年以二五○○萬美元，買下喜思巧克力，當時營收約三千萬美元、獲利只有五百萬美元，每年所需營運資本約為八百萬美元；三十五年間，喜思靠著品牌及小本經營，營收及獲利連年成長，至去年為止，獲利已經超過八一○○萬美元，若把這三十五年間淨利加總起來，金額更高達十三．五億美元，比當年的五百萬美元，整整膨脹了二七○倍。
這樣的巨幅成長，營運資本只較當年小小增加了四倍，至四千萬美元。換句話說，喜思只要保留不到四千萬美元的資金，就可以把賺到的十三多億美元資金，全部「繳庫」給母公司，再由波克夏做進一步的投資運用，巴菲特喜歡的就是這種品牌食品公司「本小利大」的媚力。
把這個邏輯釐清之後，巴菲特投資這兩個品牌大廠的道理就越來越清楚了。以卡夫食品來說，旗下擁有的品牌包括：OREO巧克力夾心、麥斯威爾咖啡、RITZ餅乾、Milky巧克力，都是卡夫食品旗下的重要品牌...
越央行打通膨 為時已晚
越南通貨膨脹加速惡化的處境，是亞洲其他國家的借鏡，如果亞洲其他央行不能獨立運作，迅速對抗通膨問題，可能演變成像越南目前難以收拾的通膨危機。
越南政府表示，儘管已實施多項對抗物價上揚的措施，今年全年的通膨率仍可能高達22%。越南5月通膨率高達25.2%，是亞洲新興市場最嚴重的國家。
摩根士丹利公司也警告，越南盾已出現劇貶危機，且可能觸發區域金融風暴。債信評級公司惠譽29日把目前為BB-的越南主權債信展望 ，從穩定降為負向，並呼籲越南央行必須提高利率以降低通膨。
分析師指出，越南央行對抗通膨的行動太慢、太少，導致通膨加速到難以收拾的地步。而其中最主要的問題，就是越南央行和許多亞洲其他央行一樣沒有獨立權限，易受政治壓力牽制，一味維持經濟成長，疏於防範通膨。
越南也與印尼、菲律賓一樣，原本希望飆漲的糧價可因農作豐收而回落，讓通膨壓力自動減輕。但糧價不跌反漲，結果是失控的物價上揚。
越南在加入世界貿易組織（WTO）、逐步推行市場自由化之際，也希望能讓原有的國營企業順利轉型，在市場中扮演重要角色。為支撐國營企業的成長，越南政府極度仰賴國營銀行的低利貸款。
越南前總理武文傑去年即警告說，對國營企業提供大量低利貸款，將重蹈南韓、馬來西亞與其他亞洲金融風暴受害國的覆轍。
去年石油與糧食價格飆漲造成通膨加速後，越南總理阮晉勇領導的政府仍舊不太願意減少對國營企業的低利貸款，深怕會傷害經濟成長。消息人士說，直到今年稍早，央行總裁阮文富才獲得阮晉勇的指令，開始加緊對抗通膨的措施，但為時已晚。
越南央行先前放寬越南盾兌美元的匯率區間，希望用越南盾升值抵銷部分物價上漲的壓力，沒想到適得其反。越南民間早已習慣用美元當作越南盾的替代品，政令公布後，民眾害怕貨幣貶值，恐慌性賣出越南盾，反而使越南盾匯價重挫。
一般民眾也把越南盾存款提領出來，開始囤積黃金與美元，藉此保值對抗通膨，越南盾前景益發暗淡，通膨局勢也可能更加失控。
越南政府表示，儘管已實施多項對抗物價上揚的措施，今年全年的通膨率仍可能高達22%。越南5月通膨率高達25.2%，是亞洲新興市場最嚴重的國家。
摩根士丹利公司也警告，越南盾已出現劇貶危機，且可能觸發區域金融風暴。債信評級公司惠譽29日把目前為BB-的越南主權債信展望 ，從穩定降為負向，並呼籲越南央行必須提高利率以降低通膨。
分析師指出，越南央行對抗通膨的行動太慢、太少，導致通膨加速到難以收拾的地步。而其中最主要的問題，就是越南央行和許多亞洲其他央行一樣沒有獨立權限，易受政治壓力牽制，一味維持經濟成長，疏於防範通膨。
越南也與印尼、菲律賓一樣，原本希望飆漲的糧價可因農作豐收而回落，讓通膨壓力自動減輕。但糧價不跌反漲，結果是失控的物價上揚。
越南在加入世界貿易組織（WTO）、逐步推行市場自由化之際，也希望能讓原有的國營企業順利轉型，在市場中扮演重要角色。為支撐國營企業的成長，越南政府極度仰賴國營銀行的低利貸款。
越南前總理武文傑去年即警告說，對國營企業提供大量低利貸款，將重蹈南韓、馬來西亞與其他亞洲金融風暴受害國的覆轍。
去年石油與糧食價格飆漲造成通膨加速後，越南總理阮晉勇領導的政府仍舊不太願意減少對國營企業的低利貸款，深怕會傷害經濟成長。消息人士說，直到今年稍早，央行總裁阮文富才獲得阮晉勇的指令，開始加緊對抗通膨的措施，但為時已晚。
越南央行先前放寬越南盾兌美元的匯率區間，希望用越南盾升值抵銷部分物價上漲的壓力，沒想到適得其反。越南民間早已習慣用美元當作越南盾的替代品，政令公布後，民眾害怕貨幣貶值，恐慌性賣出越南盾，反而使越南盾匯價重挫。
一般民眾也把越南盾存款提領出來，開始囤積黃金與美元，藉此保值對抗通膨，越南盾前景益發暗淡，通膨局勢也可能更加失控。
US consumer confidence hits 16-year low
WASHINGTON, May 27: US consumer confidence plunged to a 16-year low in May amid a stuttering economy and as surging oil prices pushed inflation expectations to an all-time high, The Conference Board reported on Tuesday.
The business research firm said its index of consumer confidence, which has slid all year, fell to 57.2 from 62.8 in April.
Most analysts expected a reading of 61.
The April reading of the consumer confidence index was revised slightly higher to 62.8, from an initial estimate of 62.3.
The index is seen as a gauge of future consumer spending, the driver of two-thirds of US economic activity. The last time the index was lower was in October 1992, when it stood at 54.6.
“Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers’ confidence in the overall state of the economy,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board consumer research centre.
“Consumers’ inflation expectations, fuelled by increasing (gasoline) prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead,” she said.
Both major components of the index dropped sharply in May. The present situation index, which measures how consumers feel about current conditions, fell to 74.4 from 81.9, a new low for the cycle.
The expectations index, which measures consumers’ outlook for the next six months, fell to 45.7 from 50.0, also a low for the cycle.
The expectations index suggests “little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead,” Franco said.
In the monthly survey, consumers expected inflation to hit 7.7 per cent in May 2009, up from a 12-month expectation of 6.8 per cent in April.
Twenty-eight per cent of those polled said jobs are “hard to get,” almost unchanged from 27.9 per cent in April, while those saying jobs are “plentiful” declined to 16.3 per cent from 17.1 per cent.
Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months rose to 33.6 per cent from 27.4 per cent, while those anticipating business conditions to improve edged up to 10.4 per cent from 10.1 per cent in April.
In another sign of flagging confidence amid the economic slump, the Wells Fargo/Gallup index, a quarterly confidence measure of small-business leaders, plunged to 48 in April from 83 in January. It was the lowest reading since the index started in August 2003.
Battered by the worst housing slump in decades, tight credit and high oil prices, the world’s biggest economy has stalled to a scant 0.6 per cent growth pace in the past two quarters.
The business research firm said its index of consumer confidence, which has slid all year, fell to 57.2 from 62.8 in April.
Most analysts expected a reading of 61.
The April reading of the consumer confidence index was revised slightly higher to 62.8, from an initial estimate of 62.3.
The index is seen as a gauge of future consumer spending, the driver of two-thirds of US economic activity. The last time the index was lower was in October 1992, when it stood at 54.6.
“Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers’ confidence in the overall state of the economy,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board consumer research centre.
“Consumers’ inflation expectations, fuelled by increasing (gasoline) prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead,” she said.
Both major components of the index dropped sharply in May. The present situation index, which measures how consumers feel about current conditions, fell to 74.4 from 81.9, a new low for the cycle.
The expectations index, which measures consumers’ outlook for the next six months, fell to 45.7 from 50.0, also a low for the cycle.
The expectations index suggests “little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead,” Franco said.
In the monthly survey, consumers expected inflation to hit 7.7 per cent in May 2009, up from a 12-month expectation of 6.8 per cent in April.
Twenty-eight per cent of those polled said jobs are “hard to get,” almost unchanged from 27.9 per cent in April, while those saying jobs are “plentiful” declined to 16.3 per cent from 17.1 per cent.
Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months rose to 33.6 per cent from 27.4 per cent, while those anticipating business conditions to improve edged up to 10.4 per cent from 10.1 per cent in April.
In another sign of flagging confidence amid the economic slump, the Wells Fargo/Gallup index, a quarterly confidence measure of small-business leaders, plunged to 48 in April from 83 in January. It was the lowest reading since the index started in August 2003.
Battered by the worst housing slump in decades, tight credit and high oil prices, the world’s biggest economy has stalled to a scant 0.6 per cent growth pace in the past two quarters.
Charts say stocks near bottom, poised to recover - Fortis Private Bank
Equity markets have found a bottom and are poised to hit new highs in the second half of this year, according to a senior chartist at Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis.
Paul Nesbitt, London-based technical analysisdirector at Fortis Private Bank, told Reuters on Monday that the Dow Jones industrial average may rally to 15,781 points this year, a gain of more than a quarter from Friday''s close of 12,325.42.
His forecasts, based on trend lines linkingthe market's recent lows as well as technical analysis such as Wave Theory, applied to European stock markets as well as older Asian equity benchmarks such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times Index, he said.
"I would expect these markets, based on history, to hit a new high," he said, adding that many technical indicators showed the markets'' recent reverses were "corrections within an ongoing bull" rather than the start of a bear market.
The exceptionwas Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which is still in a bear market trend, he said.
He also said many stock markets have given up about 38 percent of their gains since the start of the latest rally, which based on Fibonacci charts, suggestedthe markets have found a bottom.
Some investors use charts rather than economic fundamentals predict movements in financial markets.
One of the most popular charting methods involves the use of Fibonacci numbers, based on the work of a 13thcentury Italian mathematician, which suggest markets tend to find support or resistance at certain "golden ratios" commonly found in nature.
Elliott Wave, another popular charting tool, predicts markets rally in a certain pattern with threeperiods of gains interspaced with two periods of correction.
Turning to other markets, Nesbitt said he recommended that investors pare down their exposure to U.S. 10-year bonds as yields could begin to rise sharply and soon.
Historically, the May/June period was the time when the outlook for bond yields and interest rates typically changed direction.
He also said oil prices could fall to around $90-95 per barrel in coming weeks, from just below $110 currently, although the upward trend in prices remained intact.
According to him, oil appeared to be approaching the end of the third leg of an Elliott Wave formation, which suggested the commodity could lose 38 percent to 50 percent of its recent gain before resuming its uptrend.
Paul Nesbitt, London-based technical analysisdirector at Fortis Private Bank, told Reuters on Monday that the Dow Jones industrial average may rally to 15,781 points this year, a gain of more than a quarter from Friday''s close of 12,325.42.
His forecasts, based on trend lines linkingthe market's recent lows as well as technical analysis such as Wave Theory, applied to European stock markets as well as older Asian equity benchmarks such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times Index, he said.
"I would expect these markets, based on history, to hit a new high," he said, adding that many technical indicators showed the markets'' recent reverses were "corrections within an ongoing bull" rather than the start of a bear market.
The exceptionwas Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which is still in a bear market trend, he said.
He also said many stock markets have given up about 38 percent of their gains since the start of the latest rally, which based on Fibonacci charts, suggestedthe markets have found a bottom.
Some investors use charts rather than economic fundamentals predict movements in financial markets.
One of the most popular charting methods involves the use of Fibonacci numbers, based on the work of a 13thcentury Italian mathematician, which suggest markets tend to find support or resistance at certain "golden ratios" commonly found in nature.
Elliott Wave, another popular charting tool, predicts markets rally in a certain pattern with threeperiods of gains interspaced with two periods of correction.
Turning to other markets, Nesbitt said he recommended that investors pare down their exposure to U.S. 10-year bonds as yields could begin to rise sharply and soon.
Historically, the May/June period was the time when the outlook for bond yields and interest rates typically changed direction.
He also said oil prices could fall to around $90-95 per barrel in coming weeks, from just below $110 currently, although the upward trend in prices remained intact.
According to him, oil appeared to be approaching the end of the third leg of an Elliott Wave formation, which suggested the commodity could lose 38 percent to 50 percent of its recent gain before resuming its uptrend.
Margins hit as petrochem sector mourns end of boom
Singapore's huge petrochemical industry has started to feel the pinch of a cyclical downturn in the past few months. And it's expected to drag on for four years, hitting the multi-billion-dollar crackers that Shell and ExxonMobil will start up here in 2010 and 2011.
To survive the Gulf competition, local producers have to look to opportunities. One way is to integrate refineries and look for synergies.
'After a four-year boom, margins have started falling in the past three months,' an industry source said.
There has been a 'triple whammy', arising first from the glut of capacity added by new petrochemical plants, especially in the Middle East, he told BT. 'Second, we've started seeing a slowdown in demand from markets like China, linked to a slowdown in demand for finished products in the US.
'And third, high crude prices - which spiked above US$135 recently - have hit feedstock costs for Singapore crackers, which has led to margin erosions.'
Last week, Stan Park, deputy managing director of Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore (PCS), told BT that margins at its Jurong Island crackers have been squeezed by the rapid rise in oil prices, which account for more than 90 per cent of operating costs. Naphtha, a product of oil refining, has shot up 20 per cent this year alone.
The warnings from Singapore players come as the Asian Petrochemical Industry Conference (Apic), which started here yesterday, heard that the boom of the past four years is over.
'We've already seen a decline in profits this year as new capacity starts up,' said Steve Zinger, Asian managing director of consultancy Chemical Market Associates.
'In the next 12 months alone, there will be Middle East ethylene capacity additions of 9 million tonnes per annum, which is larger than global demand growth of 5-6 million tonnes per annum (tpa).'
On top of this, new Asian capacity will start up around 2009/2010. In 2009, China will invest in about 9 million tonnes of new capacity, including three coal-fired petrochemical plants, while Vietnam and Indonesia are also considering investments.
With capacity supply exceeding demand, 'we expect the downturn to last for four more years, with a recovery in 2013-2015', Mr Zinger said.
An avalanche of new Gulf capacity, especially in Saudi Arabia and Iran, will overwhelm petrochemical supply at a time when economic growth is slowing worldwide.
The upcoming 9 million tpa in the Gulf this year dwarfs Singapore's current capacity of 2.3 million tpa, comprising PCS's 1.4 million tpa and ExxonMobil's 900,000 tpa.
It is also more than double the 4.1 million tpa total here when Shell's new US$3 billion, 800,000 tpa cracker and Exxon's US$5 billion-plus, 1 million tpa cracker, start up.
But the industry downturn will not affect construction of these two projects. 'Our investment decisions are not timed for market cycles,' said an official. 'If you put steel into the ground, it's for the long term.'
The downturn will, however, put a dampener on the Economic Development Board's (EDB) hopes for two more petrochemical crackers here.
Furthermore, high oil prices will not only hurt naphtha-fuelled crackers like those in Singapore, but give a competitive advantage to natural gas-fuelled crackers like those in the Middle East and the US.
As Mr Zinger pointed out, this means the Middle East can produce ethylene at US$200 a tonne, which is US$600 a tonne cheaper than in Europe and North-east Asia and US$400 a tonne cheaper than in South-east Asia.
To survive the Gulf competition, local producers have to look to opportunities, he suggests. One way is to integrate refineries and look for synergies, which Shell and ExxonMobil have done here to boost operational efficiencies and cut costs.
In the meantime, a shake-out of less cost-efficient producers is expected.
To survive the Gulf competition, local producers have to look to opportunities. One way is to integrate refineries and look for synergies.
'After a four-year boom, margins have started falling in the past three months,' an industry source said.
There has been a 'triple whammy', arising first from the glut of capacity added by new petrochemical plants, especially in the Middle East, he told BT. 'Second, we've started seeing a slowdown in demand from markets like China, linked to a slowdown in demand for finished products in the US.
'And third, high crude prices - which spiked above US$135 recently - have hit feedstock costs for Singapore crackers, which has led to margin erosions.'
Last week, Stan Park, deputy managing director of Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore (PCS), told BT that margins at its Jurong Island crackers have been squeezed by the rapid rise in oil prices, which account for more than 90 per cent of operating costs. Naphtha, a product of oil refining, has shot up 20 per cent this year alone.
The warnings from Singapore players come as the Asian Petrochemical Industry Conference (Apic), which started here yesterday, heard that the boom of the past four years is over.
'We've already seen a decline in profits this year as new capacity starts up,' said Steve Zinger, Asian managing director of consultancy Chemical Market Associates.
'In the next 12 months alone, there will be Middle East ethylene capacity additions of 9 million tonnes per annum, which is larger than global demand growth of 5-6 million tonnes per annum (tpa).'
On top of this, new Asian capacity will start up around 2009/2010. In 2009, China will invest in about 9 million tonnes of new capacity, including three coal-fired petrochemical plants, while Vietnam and Indonesia are also considering investments.
With capacity supply exceeding demand, 'we expect the downturn to last for four more years, with a recovery in 2013-2015', Mr Zinger said.
An avalanche of new Gulf capacity, especially in Saudi Arabia and Iran, will overwhelm petrochemical supply at a time when economic growth is slowing worldwide.
The upcoming 9 million tpa in the Gulf this year dwarfs Singapore's current capacity of 2.3 million tpa, comprising PCS's 1.4 million tpa and ExxonMobil's 900,000 tpa.
It is also more than double the 4.1 million tpa total here when Shell's new US$3 billion, 800,000 tpa cracker and Exxon's US$5 billion-plus, 1 million tpa cracker, start up.
But the industry downturn will not affect construction of these two projects. 'Our investment decisions are not timed for market cycles,' said an official. 'If you put steel into the ground, it's for the long term.'
The downturn will, however, put a dampener on the Economic Development Board's (EDB) hopes for two more petrochemical crackers here.
Furthermore, high oil prices will not only hurt naphtha-fuelled crackers like those in Singapore, but give a competitive advantage to natural gas-fuelled crackers like those in the Middle East and the US.
As Mr Zinger pointed out, this means the Middle East can produce ethylene at US$200 a tonne, which is US$600 a tonne cheaper than in Europe and North-east Asia and US$400 a tonne cheaper than in South-east Asia.
To survive the Gulf competition, local producers have to look to opportunities, he suggests. One way is to integrate refineries and look for synergies, which Shell and ExxonMobil have done here to boost operational efficiencies and cut costs.
In the meantime, a shake-out of less cost-efficient producers is expected.
Bank loans grow at slowest pace in a year
Singapore bank loans grew at its weakest pace in a year in April as lending to businesses slowed, providing new signs that sluggish global demand could drag on the economy.
Bank loans in April rose 0.6 per cent to $251.1 billion in April from $249.5 billion in March, the central bank said yesterday, the slowest monthly growth since April 2007 when loans grew 0.2 per cent.
Loans to businesses fell across most industries from manufacturing to financial institutions, although the weakness was offset by the construction industry where loans grew 3.2 per cent.
Most analysts expect loan growth in Singapore to slow this year as a looming US recession slows Asia’s economies.
‘Business activity is definitely slowing down. It could be an initial sign of slower growth,’ said Kit Wei Zheng, a Citigroup economist.
From a year ago, total loans rose nearly 25 per cent from $201.8 billion, mostly boosted by construction where lending grew 1.5 times. The industry has boomed in the past year, supported by the construction of two casinos worth around US$7.7 billion.
Analysts estimate that loan growth at the South- east Asian country’s three banks, DBS Group, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank is expected to slow to 12-13 per cent this year after expanding 20 per cent in 2007.
However, economists said a recovery in the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for mortgage loans, would ease the squeeze on banks’ profit margins. The rate fell to 1.1875 in April, its lowest level in more than four years.
Loans to manufacturers fell 1.2 per cent in April to $11.1 billion from March, while lending to financial institutions declined by 3.6 per cent.
Housing and bridging loans to consumers rose 0.5 per cent to $74.6 billion despite a slowing property market, although Citigroup’s Mr Kit said the increase was probably not a result of new transactions but buyers paying off purchases closed previously under a deferred payment scheme. - Reuters
Bank loans in April rose 0.6 per cent to $251.1 billion in April from $249.5 billion in March, the central bank said yesterday, the slowest monthly growth since April 2007 when loans grew 0.2 per cent.
Loans to businesses fell across most industries from manufacturing to financial institutions, although the weakness was offset by the construction industry where loans grew 3.2 per cent.
Most analysts expect loan growth in Singapore to slow this year as a looming US recession slows Asia’s economies.
‘Business activity is definitely slowing down. It could be an initial sign of slower growth,’ said Kit Wei Zheng, a Citigroup economist.
From a year ago, total loans rose nearly 25 per cent from $201.8 billion, mostly boosted by construction where lending grew 1.5 times. The industry has boomed in the past year, supported by the construction of two casinos worth around US$7.7 billion.
Analysts estimate that loan growth at the South- east Asian country’s three banks, DBS Group, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank is expected to slow to 12-13 per cent this year after expanding 20 per cent in 2007.
However, economists said a recovery in the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for mortgage loans, would ease the squeeze on banks’ profit margins. The rate fell to 1.1875 in April, its lowest level in more than four years.
Loans to manufacturers fell 1.2 per cent in April to $11.1 billion from March, while lending to financial institutions declined by 3.6 per cent.
Housing and bridging loans to consumers rose 0.5 per cent to $74.6 billion despite a slowing property market, although Citigroup’s Mr Kit said the increase was probably not a result of new transactions but buyers paying off purchases closed previously under a deferred payment scheme. - Reuters
Banks hid $35 billion in write-downs
Several investment banks have failed to disclose a total of $35 billion in write-downs on their income statements, according to Bloomberg News.
Accounting rules allow financial organizations to report losses incurred by long-term assets, such as bonds, on their balance sheets instead of their income statements, allowing some banks to hide the full extent of the losses they have incurred due to write-downs, Bloomberg reported.
Among those entities failing to disclose write-downs on their income statements are Citigroup Inc. of New York. The investment bank, which has already reported $40.9 billion in losses tied to write-downs tied to the subprime meltdown, failed to disclose another $2 billion in write-downs it reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. of New York, which has disclosed $31.7 billion in credit losses, has incurred another $5.3 billion that it kept off its income statement.
Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle, which has suffered $8.3 billion in losses tied to subprime holdings, has withheld disclosing $0.8 billion.
These previously undisclosed write-downs follow on the heels of the devaluation of $344 billion in assets through write-downs and credit losses throughout the banking industry.
Accounting rules allow financial organizations to report losses incurred by long-term assets, such as bonds, on their balance sheets instead of their income statements, allowing some banks to hide the full extent of the losses they have incurred due to write-downs, Bloomberg reported.
Among those entities failing to disclose write-downs on their income statements are Citigroup Inc. of New York. The investment bank, which has already reported $40.9 billion in losses tied to write-downs tied to the subprime meltdown, failed to disclose another $2 billion in write-downs it reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. of New York, which has disclosed $31.7 billion in credit losses, has incurred another $5.3 billion that it kept off its income statement.
Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle, which has suffered $8.3 billion in losses tied to subprime holdings, has withheld disclosing $0.8 billion.
These previously undisclosed write-downs follow on the heels of the devaluation of $344 billion in assets through write-downs and credit losses throughout the banking industry.
Saturday, May 31, 2008
US weakness is greatest threat to global economy: Draghi
The global economy is threatened by continuing weaknesses in the U.S. economy and rising energy and raw materials prices, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Draghi said on Saturday.
Draghi told a Bank of Italy meeting that ECB policy remained "firmly focused on the objective of price stability".
"The greatest threat to the world economy now comes from the build-up of inflationary pressures and the possible worsening of the American slowdown," Draghi, who is also Bank of Italy governor, said in his address to the bank.
Draghi told a Bank of Italy meeting that ECB policy remained "firmly focused on the objective of price stability".
"The greatest threat to the world economy now comes from the build-up of inflationary pressures and the possible worsening of the American slowdown," Draghi, who is also Bank of Italy governor, said in his address to the bank.
摩根士丹利：越南面临货币危机
摩根士丹利表示，越南面临类似1997年泰铢的“货币危机”。
而评级机构惠誉昨天则将越南债务评级展望调为负面。
可能会贬值39%
据彭博社报道，摩根士丹利表示，越南正步向类似泰铢1997年所面临的“货币危机”，因为通货膨胀上扬、贸易逆差扩大之际，越南央行让越南盾汇价维持在过高的水平。
20个月无本金交割远期外汇显示，市场押注越南盾兑美元未来一年会贬值39%。
摩根士丹利香港分析员Stewart Newnham发布报告说，越南的经常项目逆差、外汇储备余额、通胀和越南盾处于“倒错”的水准。
越南国家银行行长阮文富拒绝对摩根士丹利的报告作出回应。但越南国家银行的银行管理部主管阮全辉27日在该行网站上发表声明说，尽管由于越南正经历1992年以来最严重的通胀，导致对美元的需求加速增长，但央行有能力确保一个“有序的汇率”。
阮全辉重申，越南政府准备继续在汇率的浮动区间内实施“稳健的外汇政策”。
越南盾兑美元今年以来贬值1.3%。越南央行每日制定参考汇率，波动幅度限于1%。12个月期无本金交割远期外汇合约本周下跌22%至2万2550越南盾。
通胀高达25％
另据报道，惠誉昨天将越南的债务展望调降，指其银行系统的稳定性可能面对风险，因为政府对高达25％的通货膨胀反应过慢。
惠誉将越南的评级从稳定调降为负面，其外汇长期评级为BB-，低于投资等级3个级别。不过，越南政府表示，惠誉的判断太消极。
越南的通货膨胀上升至1992年以来的高点，而贸易逆差则扩大3倍，今年以来，越南股市指数下跌了55%，与2007年的情形正好相反，当年越南加入世界贸易组织（WTO），同时，当年越南的经济增长则达到1996年以来的最高速度。
胡志明市亚洲商业银行总裁赖祥海表示，“相对于全球经济而言，越南变得更为开放，在贸易方面依赖性提高，因此当全球经济面对严峻问题的时候，对越南可能造成更大的负面冲击”，“我们面对一些严峻的问题，但我们并不认为这些问题会维持很长时间。”亚洲商业银行是越南最大的非国有银行。
此外，另一家评级公司标准普尔也在本月较早的时候，将越南的外汇债务评级展望调降至负面。
而评级机构惠誉昨天则将越南债务评级展望调为负面。
可能会贬值39%
据彭博社报道，摩根士丹利表示，越南正步向类似泰铢1997年所面临的“货币危机”，因为通货膨胀上扬、贸易逆差扩大之际，越南央行让越南盾汇价维持在过高的水平。
20个月无本金交割远期外汇显示，市场押注越南盾兑美元未来一年会贬值39%。
摩根士丹利香港分析员Stewart Newnham发布报告说，越南的经常项目逆差、外汇储备余额、通胀和越南盾处于“倒错”的水准。
越南国家银行行长阮文富拒绝对摩根士丹利的报告作出回应。但越南国家银行的银行管理部主管阮全辉27日在该行网站上发表声明说，尽管由于越南正经历1992年以来最严重的通胀，导致对美元的需求加速增长，但央行有能力确保一个“有序的汇率”。
阮全辉重申，越南政府准备继续在汇率的浮动区间内实施“稳健的外汇政策”。
越南盾兑美元今年以来贬值1.3%。越南央行每日制定参考汇率，波动幅度限于1%。12个月期无本金交割远期外汇合约本周下跌22%至2万2550越南盾。
通胀高达25％
另据报道，惠誉昨天将越南的债务展望调降，指其银行系统的稳定性可能面对风险，因为政府对高达25％的通货膨胀反应过慢。
惠誉将越南的评级从稳定调降为负面，其外汇长期评级为BB-，低于投资等级3个级别。不过，越南政府表示，惠誉的判断太消极。
越南的通货膨胀上升至1992年以来的高点，而贸易逆差则扩大3倍，今年以来，越南股市指数下跌了55%，与2007年的情形正好相反，当年越南加入世界贸易组织（WTO），同时，当年越南的经济增长则达到1996年以来的最高速度。
胡志明市亚洲商业银行总裁赖祥海表示，“相对于全球经济而言，越南变得更为开放，在贸易方面依赖性提高，因此当全球经济面对严峻问题的时候，对越南可能造成更大的负面冲击”，“我们面对一些严峻的问题，但我们并不认为这些问题会维持很长时间。”亚洲商业银行是越南最大的非国有银行。
此外，另一家评级公司标准普尔也在本月较早的时候，将越南的外汇债务评级展望调降至负面。
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