战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人

我最喜欢毛泽东这句话：战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人。（我花了几年的时间才真正的明白这句话的道理）

股票市场就好像战场，所以我们要相信毛泽东的这句话。

可惜，群众都是采用相反的方法，那就是：战略上尊重敌人，战术上藐视敌人。

举一些例子：

先谈战略：

股票下跌，群众会这样想：

有人大量抛售，后面一定有坏消息，我得赶快跟着卖。

现在股票大跌，外资都跑了，我得赶快离场。

股票上升，群众会这样想：

有人大量收购，后面一定有好消息，我得赶快跟着买。

现在股票大涨，外资都进来了，我得赶快进场。

这就是战略上尊重敌人 = 敌人的所作所为都是对的，我得尊重他们。

再谈战术：

公司亏钱，股价却上升，群众会这样想：

管它亏多少，只要股价上升我就高兴了。

公司赚钱。股价却下跌。群众会这样想：

管它赚多少，只要股价下跌我就生气了。

这就是战术上藐视敌人 = 没有花时间去研究数据，就藐视账目。

(实战例子）

2006年8月10日CCB（Cycle& Carriage Bintang ）宣布派发2.08令吉的股息，消息一出它的股价就涨停板，一日之内股价狂升1.53令吉，从2.45升到3.98，共升了62.4%。

从这个案例我们就可以了解群众（在股市里它就是我们的对手，也就是我们的敌人）……了解为什么战略上我们要藐视敌人，战术上我们要尊重敌人。

在消息宣布的前一天（9/8/2006），CCB的股价只是2.33令吉，而且它已经在这价位盘旋了一段很长的时间，在20/6/2006那一天它甚至跌到2.11的价钱。

仔细的研究CCB的账目（这就是战术上尊重敌人），我们就可以知道它的净资产值（NTA）是4.08，所以，长期以来CCB的股价是以低过NTA的价值在市场上交易。

但是，在漫长的日子里，群众好像不知道CCB的股票是以低过NTA的价钱在成交，也许群众都没有做功课吧，但是，那些精明的基金经理呢，难道他们也不知道？

还有，那些CCB的董事老爷们，难道他们也不知道自己公司有充足的现金可以派发2.08令吉的股息吗？

让我把时光倒退到20/6/2006那天……

还有一个多月，公司就要宣布派发2.08令吉的股息了，而今天股票还以2.11的价钱在市场上交易。（几乎是在免费赠送！）

如果20/6/2006那天，我们敢以2.11的价钱买进CCB，那么我们就是在战略上藐视敌人了，因为我们相信群众（包括基金经理和CCB的董事老爷们）都是错误的，没有做功课的，所以我们藐视他们。

（他们都不敢买，我买！）

当然，我们是不可能知道公司就要派发丰厚的股息，我们只是知道它有这个能力而已。

那么我们的信心从哪里来呢？

那是因为我们有做功课，知道公司有充足的现金，知道它的NTA是4.08， 知道2.11的价钱是超值的。

（这就是战术上尊重敌人）

今天（14/8/2006），同样的情况可能发生在Megan……

从账目上我们清楚的知道，Megan的净资产值（NTA）是2.31令吉，去年它的每股净利（EPS）是0.30令吉，目前它只以0.59的价钱在市场上成交。

我们也清楚的知道，刚刚过去的第3季Megan的税前盈利是27m，第4季是33m。

而且经过折旧率的调整，税前盈利要维持在这个水平并不是一件难事，所以我们可以大胆的预测，在新的财政年Megan 的税前盈利可以达到120m。

（这就是战术上尊重敌人）

目前Megan的市价只是120m（205m X 0.59 = 120m），也就是说，以目前的价位投资Megan，一年就可以回本。

一年可以赚120m的Megan ，目前只以120m的市价在市场上成交？

这怎么可能！难道那些精明的基金经理，Megan的董事老爷们都看不到？

不错，他们都看不到！（这就是战略上藐视敌人）

股票市场就等于是战场，所以我们一定要懂得这道理：战略上藐视敌人，战术上尊重敌人。

Friday, June 08, 2007

In yet another similar crisis, Megan Media Holdings Bhd (KLSE: MEGAN, stock-code 7101), joined the bandwagon of financially suspect firms saying its receivables, sales costs and inventories had been overstated. Its inventory could have been inflated by as much as 100 million ringgit ($29.2 million), Megan said, adding that receivables amounting to 334.3 million ringgit at end-January and prepayment of 211 million ringgit in deposits for 13 production lines appeared to be fictitious.

Chairman Adam Che Harun could not immediately be reached for comment. Co-founder George Yeo Wee Siong (a Singaporean) who has resigned as a director, declined when he was asked to attend the group's board meeting to clarify possible fictitious transactions.

“Megan said "These investigations have proven to be conclusive and indicate the deliberate falsification of the company's performance by overstating inventory values. The extent of the falsification is deemed to be material. There could yet be more unpleasant financial surprises"

Megan Media, a Malaysian maker of recordable discs, was listed on the Bursa Malaysia second board in August 2000. In 2004, Megan Media bought Singapore-based MJC (S) Pte Ltd, which was also founded by Yeo and his brother Wee Kon, for RM97.2mil. MJC is a floppy disk manufacturing company.

The findings were made by investigative accountants Ferrier Hodgson, who had been appointed by creditor banks. Ferrier Hodgson's initial findings showed MTSB (Memory Tech Sdn Bhd) which is a unit of Megan Media Holdings appeared to have financed the payment of fictitious trading creditors through borrowings and recycled the cash through other entities to appear that repayments were being made by fictitious trading debtors. It said all trading creditors were paid but the payments were actually made to other parties, a move to siphon out the cash from MTSB.

Besides the fictitious receivables and prepayments, it was also revealed that the company's assets could potentially fall short by RM456mil. Hey, isn't this the same case with Bumiputra-Commerce Holding Berhad? Ferrier Hodgson said MTSB may have been involved in fictitious trading over time and that such transactions had been more rampant in the financial year ended April 30, 2007.

So, another new accounting irregularity and the fact remains that the trading debtors and shareholders are being taken for a donkey ride again. What have the authorities done all this while when this entire ridiculous one after another accounting crisis began to balloon? Besides sleeping on the job and the “close one-eye” policy, aren’t it spectacular that such irregularities could happens throughout so many years (you don’t believe it just started this year only, do you?) without any preventive enforcement from the authorities? Have the authorities (Securities Commission) learnt anything from U.S. Enron’s case? If not, why not?

A random check on some listed companies’ accounting could have prevented such rampant cases. Now, the fire has spread what else could the Securities Commission do besides trumpeting another slogan on how the body will take the necessary actions? And can you blame the foreign investors for shying away or not thinking on long-term investment from Malaysia’s stock market? How would you feel as a minority shareholder if one day you woke up to read that the stock that’s in your portfolio actually consists of inflated accounting figures? Fortunately I do not own any Megan or any of those stocks which were frontpaged recently for irregularities, but I weep for those investors affected.

22/04/2008
De-listing of the securities of Megan Media Holdings Berhad