If there's a duel between financial heavyweights Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett, the most recent data says "the Oracle" is right.
"I still believe there is a greater than 50% probability of recession," Greenspan tells The Financial Times. "[But] that probability has receded a little and ... the probability of a severe recession has come down markedly."
On the other hand, "I believe that we are already in a recession," Buffett tells Germany's Der Spiegel. "It will be deeper and longer than what many think."
American consumers seem to agree with Buffett: May consumer confidence came it at 57.2 this morning, below expectations and at the lowest level since October 1992.
Consumer confidence is obviously tied to the housing market, which Greenspan says is likely to fall another 10%, bringing the peak-to-trough decline to 25%.
Hopefully Greenspan isn't underestimating the decline -- as he was wont to do while still Fed chairman: The Case/Shiller Index says home prices fell 14.1% in the first quarter, the worst drop in the history of the index, going back to 1988.
Separately, this morning's April new home sales report showed an unexpected 3.3% rise, but that's only after March figures were revised down and April sales remain near a 17-year low.
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