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Monday, June 8, 2009

Roubini Scoffs at Green Shoots, Sees Dangerous Complacency

Roubini spoke at some conference somewhere. He's still singing the same song he was a month ago:

Those aren't "green shoots"--they're yellow weeds
The crisis isn't over, and everyone has become way too complacent
We'll be in recession for another 6-9 months
The recovery after that will be weak
Big risk of a double-dip
Households aren't deleveraging
Oil could go to $200 just as economy starts to recover
Real interest rates could spike, killing housing, etc.
Concern about hyper-inflation
All this could lead to "perfect storm" that will clip wings of economic and financial recovery
So we need to stay focused on averting disaster before we redesign regulatory architecture.

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