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Friday, August 7, 2009

Adampak

Adampak has a very strong track record of being very shareholder oriented, with a sound and logical approach to managing their business, unfailingly and consistently delivering good dividends and ROE for the past few years. In terms of financial performance thus far, Adampak is almost unparalleled. I briefly screened through using summary guides ($6 in popular) on all the listed stocks, and apparently, by standards of John Burr Williams (Intrinsic valuation) or Warren Buffett and Graham, at currently irrationally depressed prices, this seems like the greatest gem of all - excellent and honest management, consistent performance, outstanding economics, and plenty of room for growth.

However, the greatest challenge for this to become a true stellar performer, is for Adampak to build and continue to retain their 'moat' in this highly competitive industry, to continue to keep that 20+% ROE, and high dividend yield. Dydx correctly pointed out (in an earlier thread) that their RFID tags will be a possible third engine of growth (first being HDD business, second is precision die cuts).

All this information paints about 50~60% the actual reality of Adampak, given that retail investors have access to so limited information. BUT, the assurance came when I know full well that the Exec Directors are heavily vested (total of 50+%), and have been continuously increasing their stakes in recent months.

I am betting on this to become a future ten bagger, the stakes are currently in my favour.
On Adampak's 'moat', I think the main point lies with the very nature of the label converter business focussing on quality-name customers with the requirements of high technical specifications, high-volume, and demanding customer service support. The technical specs involve different types of face-stocks, different types of adhesives, different types of printing, different and exact specifications for different labels/parts/RFID tags, and high-precision die-cutting process. So unless one knows enough about the technical specs, it is difficult to start this kind of business and hope to attain an economic scale within a reasonable period of time, as the production equipment are also quite expensive. Adampak's seasoned management has delivered from the business a high GP margin of over 33% in the last 2 FY's, and this good performance in a way indicates Adampak's 'moat'.

To answer Grandrake's questions -
Ong Hock Leng is one of the founding investors, including Anthony Tay (ED and the largest shareholder) and Tham Kim Par. Both Ong and Tham have not been involved in running the business for quite some time already.

Based on what I know, there is no other listed company which is competing directly with Adampak as a label converter with similar scale and range of products/services. Armstrong does die-cutting and also supplies to HDD manufacturers, but is focussed in rubber parts. Based on what I know, Adampak's direct competitors are Zephyr (local but privately held) and regional subsidiaries of Brady Corp (listed on NYSE).

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