Achieva

Date: 08-Aug-2009

Here's my take on the situation:

If one looks back at the events in the last few weeks. it is interesting.

1. Just 1 day before the dividend pay out June 26th, there was a run on the counter with 22m shares done with the price movig up from 7.5c to a intraday high and close of 9.5c.

Prior that, ex-div date of 3 June, over 79m shares was traded from price price of 9.5c to a low of 7c and then a run on June 25th to 9.5c

One can only conclude there was a lot of trading and accumualation of the stock going on during June 3 to June 26th after Ex-Dividend.

2. From June 27 to 17th July, the stock started to drift form 9.5c back down to 8c with just 2 days of 7.5c lows on 7 and 8th of July and then back to 8.5c on 17th July

Volume was extremely during this period. About 19m shares in a tight trading range.

3. 23th July marked the start of hurried accumulation and trading till 7th August.

This is where things are very interesting in the choices of dates of announcemnts of profit warning and the early release of the 2rd quarter results.

23 July, 19.9m shares was traded with price range of 8.5c to 9.5c closing at 9c.

thereafter, the stock traded in a T+4/5 fashion. Classic BB accumulation patterns of pump and dump and reaccumulate within a tight rage of 8.5c to 9.5 and some at 10c.

the 2rd quarter results would have been known and finanlised by this period as 2nd quarter ends in June 2009.

Profit warning was issued on 30 July: 31July, 10.3m shares was done mostly at 9c.

Prior to the profit warning, 21m shares was done between 8.5c to 9.5 with mostly done at 9c in 5 trading days.

Before we know it, suddenly on 7th August (Friday), market closes and the 2Q results comes out. In just these5 trading days after the profit warning was issued, an amazing 61m shares was done with huge buy ups at the buyer price in just these 5 trading days.

4. My point:

a. Funny concidence??? after dividend...quiet periodand low prices.

b. after23th July.......things seem to really start coming alive.

c. profit warning on 30 July...still high volume and higher prices

d. 5th day clsoing August 7th, early announcement of 2Q results

Prediction for next week:

Panicky retail /weak holders are going to start selling down the stock from 9.5c to either back to NTA price of 8.5 or 9c or who knows... stillat 9.5c

BB is going to have a field day collecting.

My only conslusion is that BB has not cornered the stock so no dividend annucned. From my calculations, the remaining retained earnings will allow coy to distribute another max 3-4c so the wait will be another 2 .3mths for 3rd quarter in November but there is good amount of time to continue collecting the stock.

There is still alot of shares out inthe market held by significant shareholders so BB have to pay higher to take out htese people.

For some of us......I see the results as being overplayed. Coy is clearly still profitbale and cashflow positive barring forex losses on existing money in the bank.

there is still 8.5c cash/NTA so any further discount to this price represents good opp to contiue adding position.

So call me sick... there is light in this set of results.....I got more time like the BB to add position if the price goes below NTA in the weeks to come.

This stock is not for contra players as I keep emphasising.

well cheemeng, it all depends on your holding power and horizon. For me and some others (not on SJ), we have holding power for this baby.

For other stocks, we don't have so much holding power as we trade them a little more than we like but we've been handsomely rewarded before for holding power.

One of my best one was singapore Ship 5years ago. steady accumulation of it over 8 months before it doubled in 5mths.

Achieva to me is no different from Singapore Ship. It's Month 14 for me for this stock.

For us,we've reaped 10c of dividend. Made tradnig profit on some contra positions but made the most from adding postions from 4.5c to10c before ex-div. So now some of us are back into the quiet hunt from day 1 of since 26th June for the 2nd phase of this baby.

I've identified 4 phases of this stock so we are now in phase 2.

This stock is not for the faint hearted who live for fast action. It's for those who appreciate a slow easy ride that can suddenly turn really violent